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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, October 03, 2018Now what?I’m hungover and at work. This is probably going to be an incoherent mess. I probably will end up disagreeing with some or all of this, probably sooner than later. However, might as well start thinking about how the Cubs are going to approach this offseason. The easy route is making some small changes around the edges - maybe splurge on a reliever or two, bring a couple more long shot rebound types - and talk about being healthier and improving from within. There’s probably some merit to that, and it very well could work. They could burn it all down - fire Maddon, make a couple big, splashy trades, and spend a ton of money in FA. Maybe there’s some merit to that too, but that still would be an overreaction. I expect them to do something in between (wow, really going out on a ledge here, aren’t I), but it still very likely will be more turnover than we’ve been used to lately. So, let’s break it up by area. Coaching Staff Hitters I think the Cubs need a new backup catcher. I’m actually ok with Caratini, but they need someone that can give Contreras a lot more rest. Whether that’s a coaching thing that Joe just won’t play him, or a real reason they don’t like him getting regular appearances, they can’t expect Willson to play this much again and be worth anything with his bat. I still hope that for Contreras, he just needs more rest and he’ll be fine. The Cubs need a fulltime 2b and CF, but it very well could be those spots continue to be a rotation of in house guys (Almora/Happ/Zobrist/Bote/Heyward). I can live with that (and Heyward getting most of the starts in RF) if they add a big bat elsewhere. However, I have a suspicion that Cubs add someone else from the outside to fill one of those spots. I like the idea of Bote and Zobrist as bench regulars who each start a few times a week, but think the Cubs are better if neither are counted on to start 140ish times (Zobrst, just due to his age, can’t really be expected to be this good again in this much PT). Bottom line, I think the Cubs end up with 2 new starting position players and a different looking bench. Pitchers Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: October 03, 2018 at 10:27 AM | 427 comment(s)
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I guess as long as these rumors are out there, until the Cubs actually do something, it's going to be hard to think they're not true.
I'm sure they expressed interest in McCann particularly, and maybe even in some veteran leadership generally, but they can't have been all that interested to let him walk at that price tag. Robothal is just projecting.
Sounds like it is gonna happen. Pretty big serious move by the Cardinals if true (not really knowing who they are giving up, too).
sss (187 PAs over the years), but .353/.471/.699 vs Cubs in his career.
Seems like a lot for a guy with only 1 year left, but doesn't seem like anyone they'll miss. Cards will obviously try to get him to stick around. Means Carpenter will be at another position where he's less good of a defender, but this is a big get for them.
Not sure if they interviewed anyone else or not.
Lovely.
Frustration level rising.
Freeman signed with the Indians. Cubs can't even sign guys for AAA! Bobby Wilson (Tigers) and Justin Hancock (Japan; Eddie Butler also signed over there) also gone.
Grrrrrr....
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-31-prospects-chicago-cubs/
Thins out quickly after that... Steele is the last man standing from that 2014 bonus baby latter round splurge (Cease cross-town, Carson Sands pretty much done). Lange looks like he won't be anything special... Little looks like a bust, though he was always supposed to be a "project" that would take time, anyway. None of the high ceiling raw kids look like they're figuring it out (Velazquez, Davis, etc). Lots of these guys are still young enough to get it together and there's the usual mix of radar gun exciting Latin finds and unexciting, but deep repertoired college pitchers.
Still, if Ademan can bounce back and Alzolay get healthy -- that's a respectable top 4. It would be nice to see one of the raw kids bust out to round out a nice top 5.
I think some of them can be impact RP - I think Mills can have a decent role this year.
Much as I love Schwarbs, I think this is dumb... I mean, I wouldn't be actively shopping him or anything and I don't want to see him traded, but how do you not listen to offers?
A more cynical take is that it can also just be cover for when the Cubs don't make any significant changes and really focus on the narrative that they already have more than enough to win (that part can still be true either way). All we missed last year was this unquantifiable thing that the casual fan would never see anyway!
I "get" the David Ross thing. Not as in I really understand it, but as in, this has been a thing attributed to David Ross for many years. But the excerpt in 320 adds a gratuitous reference to Jon Jay. First, the 2018 Cubs won more regular-season games without Jon Jay on the roster than the 2017 Cubs won with Jay. Second, I have literally never heard a description of Jon Jay as this kind of player. He always struck me as a quiet, well-liked guy: great 4th or 5th outfielder to have around. In that sense, would the 2018 Cubs have been better with him on the roster? Maybe. Although the Cubs outfield was pretty crowded as is. It's just bizarre that the media is going out of their way here to explicitly dis the leadership skills of Anthony Rizzo - who is widely regarded as a team leader - and Jason Heyward - who, two years ago, gave us the narrative that his epic rain-delay pep talk in Game 7 of the World Series totally made up for the fact that he hit like a utility infielder and made him totally worth his contract no matter what he did over the last 6 years of it.
The way to improve the 2019 Cubs is to give them healthier and more talented players. Among their holes, they could use a better backup catcher, and, sure, those guys often have these "veteran presence" intangibles and I'm sure such a thing couldn't hurt. But come on, the 2018 Cubs missed Jon Jay? Really?
It's really bizarre and I don't know what to make of it. Pretty much every narrative this post-season has been a real head-scratcher, at least since Chili was canned. It seems like Theo/Jed are pushing various narratives to the media - particularly in regards to finances - yet I don't understand why they'd be pushing this anti-Maddon anti-clubhouse vibe thing. At all. And the business with the pitching coaches was ... very strange.
And then there's this Harper business. I see reports from a couple days ago that several insiders still think the Cubs are playing coy and are the favorites and Chicago is where Harper wants to be, etc. And then today Robothal says the Cubs aren't even part of the discussions. Which one of those is harder to believe?
The best I can come up with is that Jay is very coachable, whereas the young bucks on the Cubs this year refused to be tutored by the coaching staff?
Except I thought the knock on Chili Davis - fair or not - was that he got the hitters to stop doing the launch angle thing which led to everybody's power disappearing. Which I think zonk or someone else suggested was actually a critique that the Cubs' young guys were TOO coachable. I suppose Jon Jay's power wouldn't have disappeared, because he never had any to begin with.
I suppose all we can do is sit back and when spring training rolls around, we can judge the off-season based on what the Cubs actually did. And if what the Cubs actually do is sign Bryce Harper and add a backup catcher and a decent reliever or two then great, the off-season was a success and all of this media speculation was just random noise.
*Probably easier to just ignore that stuff though at the time, I guess.
Trib is pay (or limits number of clicks), so I haven't read the Gonzales story. Waiting until the market settles on RP isn't necessarily a bad thing, in fact it might be the smart thing. The idea that the Cubs can't do anything unless they shed money though...
ha.
Yep. Teams that signed relievers early last winter got burned at Chatwoodian levels.
Most aren't Duensinging the blues on those deals.
Yippee.
Sharma.
He also mentions the Cubs offered Mikolas 2/$10mil last year, and went after Chacin. He brought those guys up as alternatives who would have been better than Chatwood, but IIRC, Chatwood signed pretty early. So those guys would have been instead of Darvish, which would have been good for 2018 (and the budget for this year).
There were a few guys that I liked who would have been worth a flier - but they were long gone by the time the Cubs picked and not really worth trading for (unless it was just straight up cash consideration).... Richie Martin, who went 1st overall, would have been a fine "if they trade Russell" utility IF. Maybe Drew Jackson, too. Riley Ferrell and Chris Ellis on the pitching side (Ferrell in particular, though - the Cubs recrod getting guys who struggle to throw strikes to start throwing strikes is not... promising).
The Cubs lose a couple guys in the minor league phase, but they were both org fodder relievers who won't be missed (David Garner and Yapson Gomez), while snagging three more...Luis Lugo from the Royals is basically the Yapson Gomez replaement (LHP)... a catcher from the Pirates system I've never heard of (Rafelin Lorenzo).... and a Yankee RHP I vaguely recall from some OOTP season in the past (Alexander Vargas). There was another guy who used to be a Cub and I thought still was - Jeffery Baez (not related to Javy that I know of). One relatively interesting guy that went in the minor league phase late in round 3 that wouldn't have been a bad pick is Riley Unroe... He's bounced around a fair bit - former high pick (sandwich, I think) by the Rays. MI who runs a bit. Never really hit anywhere, but he's still fairly young (23) and given the dearth of MI (particular, SS) options at the upper levels, the Cubs could do worse than having him at Tennessee or Iowa.
Honestly surprised it wasn't just cash. (joking, I think)
Get those 2019 division champ t-shirt designs in now!
EDIT:
good lord
I hope that this is simply a case of reporters misinterpreting "We don't want to pay $4 million for players who are only worth $1-$2 million" as "We can't afford $4 million" (see also, Jesse Chavez).
of course, nothing to say really other than I'm not seeing much of a gap between Descalso and Bote and I'm pretty sure I'd have rather kept Torreyes.
And while I'm not exactly brimming with confidence about the pen, it was a bright spot last year and I don't see how adding a standard mediocre pen arm is gonna make me any more confident. Hope Kintzler bounces back, hope we get some useful innings out of Morrow, hope some of the AAA kids perform this time around, roll with Edwards, Strop and Cishek ... I suppose we need a LHR.
If the Cubs truly are near their budget ceiling, was bringing Hamels back the best use of $20MM? I like Cole, but if I only had ~$25MM to spend, I'd be tempted to break it up between one of the $8-$10MM relievers, one reclamation type SP (could have been Smyly) and a backup MI/catcher.
I hope they make at least one exciting move this winter. Kaplan predicted Happ would be move for a bullpen arm on the latest CubsTalk podcast. I don't think I'd be happy with that unless the Cubs were getting an Edwin Diaz-esque reliever.
Merry ####### Christmas, everyone. Some positive spin on him, written before these rumors. Not sure I'm convinced, though. If he's really just a TLS replacement, but with more defensive value, that's fine, I guess, even though it's about as uninspiring as it comes.
I'd have liked Tulo in a utility role.
I'd have liked Tulo in a utility role.
Sure, but it sounds like he might end up getting a shot to win the starting SS role (until he's hurt in week 2 of ST).
I'm not exactly sure what value someone like him has, so I fail to see how this is a negative. STEAMER projects TLS at .250/.322/.352/0.2WAR and Descalso at .229/.328/.377/0.8WAR (ZIPS .226/.331/.386), but the fact that DD can play a lot more positions (and is better at all of them than TLS) is an upgrade worth making, no matter how minor it is. The Cubs should still probably add another guy to the 40 man who can play SS, but don't need to add another to the 25 man now. If the money is that tight, it is worth asking if that's worth the $1mil or so more it's costing - considering the makeup of the 25 man now I'd say yes.
The disappointing part is if this, plus likely a backup C, are the only changes to the position player group.
I guess this bolsters the infield depth and paves the way for jettisoning Russell and moving Javy to shortstop, but as I've noted before, that series of moves would almost certainly project as net downgrade.
Dumping Russell for nothing for off-field issues was almost always going to be a downgrade. I'm starting to now accept (not happily, I should add) that it's very likely Russell is still the starting SS for the majority of the season next year.
Official, btw.
Good ####### lord. What the #### is wrong with this guy? I find myself hoping and cheering for some semblance of redemption for him (by earning it as a human being first, ballplayer second) but it just becomes increasingly evident that my hopes and dreams are wasted on on this prick. What a ####### #######.
I don't necessarily disagree. But are we sure this is ongoing, or just a story of what was? Don't get me wrong, what is described is loathsome behavior. But it's a slightly different story if that was in the past and he's making amends now.
Here's a link to a pdf version.
This notion of Zobrist being dealt has come up in a couple places, and I'm not exactly sure how that really would help the Cubs.
That's a really cheap contract for a guy who can do so many things!
Cards allegedly close to signing Miller.
The FA market seems to have frozen again though, so I'm guessing there's going to be a decent steal or so signing available still. Just will have to wait.
Possibly the first step towards the Dodgers signing Harper? This clears a lot of money for them. Not sure the Reds plan exactly.
Pat Hughes signs multi-year extension as radio play-by-play announcer.
Rehabbing from TJ.
Assuming they do look to clear payroll I suspect Zobrist is gone. If they need more than that then things get a bit tricky.
cosign this 100%
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No bench coach news, AFAIK.
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MLBTR:
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No news on the Cubs dumping Heyward and Chatwood for nothing and signing Harper yet, AFAIK.
So, yeah, I'd bet on Loretta being the manager in 2020.
EDIT: Well, the folks at Bleed Cubbie Blue apparently disagree with me:
I dunno. Is "big-league coaching" experience really necessary these days? And, of course, he'll have a year of it in 2020 anyway.
Wait, what?!That's insane.
A fair bet might be:
Cubs 2020 Manager
Joe Maddon -150
The Field +150
That's a 60% chance Maddon is manager next year, 40% chance he's not. I think this off-season has been mostly bluff and bluster all around.
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Amusing, interesting, something.
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Any other names gonna leak on who interviewed for the job?
Maybe Theo and Jed "interviewed" him at a bar or party or something.
link
Another piece of evidence for the suspicion the Cubs are planning on keeping Russell.
Yuck.
Just posting that for the KB part.
Also, a small Cubs aside in a piece about the Nats and Harper:
The Cubs would love a shot at Harper, though ownership approval continues to appear unlikely, sources say.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again - and I'm not saying the Ricketts are cheap, the Cubs are likely to pay the luxury tax this year, and THED's history of mega FA deals is mixed at best - but I'm going to be really disappointed if the Cubs end up spending little to nothing more than picking up the Hamels extension (and the Descalso deal absolutely counts as little to nothing). It doesn't have to be Harper, but I really get the impression he *wants* to sign with the Cubs. The Cubs have holes/needed upgrades that can be filled/made purely by spending money. I'm not overly concerned today about the current "window", but if there's ever a time to really splurge, it's right now before everyone gets to FA. Maybe the Cubs are just playing coy, and waiting for FAs to sign late and cheap just like guys did last year, in which case, as long as they add contributors I really don't care about the price or how much money the Ricketts are saving.
I don't know that any one of those scenarios is more likely than any others. So ... whatever. I used to think all this offseason stuff was fun, but now it's just tedious.
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