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   1. dcsmyth1 Posted: June 14, 2006 at 01:49 PM (#2063467)
Marshall is the story of the 2006 Cubs and gives them the left-handed starter they’ve craved for so long."

That's a pretty damning statement of the 2006 Cubs, given that he has a 4.82 ERA. His Pecota projection was 4.94. And his Pecota ERA projections for the next 4 seasons are around 5.00 each year. At this very moment, there is little reason to expect Marshall to be even an avg starter. I realize that in some starts he has looked good, but I suspect that is true for almost every pitcher. If a guy never has a good start, they won't keep running him out there. This is, at the moment, yet another case of a Cubs prospect performing reasonably well, given his age and experience, that people want to call him the "left-handed starter they've craved for". Sorry, but the jury won't be in for quite a while.

As for Marmol, his Pecota projections are worse than Marshall's. They suggest that, while he'll strike out a few batters, he also will give up lots of BB and HR.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: June 14, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2063703)
Marmol's ZiPS projections are way worse than Marshall's, too.

Marshall - 3-5, 4.65 ERA, 93 IP, 94 H, 12 HR, 32 BB, 67 K
Marmol - 4-13, 6.19 ERA, 160 IP, 177 H, 32 HR, 82 BB, 115 K
   3. 100 Years is Nothing Posted: June 14, 2006 at 10:51 PM (#2063969)
Other than the two real stinkers that Dusty let Marshall get his head beat in, he has pitched quite well. He seems to have an idea of how to pitch, and chatting with Maddux certainly won't hurt him any. My guess is the two beatings have added at least a run a game to his ERA. Definitely a keeper, and one of the few bright spots for the Cubs. Marmol has impressed me so far, but it is way too early to know what he can do.

I'd like to see them call up Hill (Ducks), and give him the rest of the year in the rotation to see if he can figure out how to suceed. This year was over in mid-May, so no need to rush Prior or Wood back. Let's see what we have, and what we need to do for next year.

Position player wise, I think the only one worth bring up would be Theriot. Play him instead of Neif-ee and Womack, again to get a gauge on what you have.
   4. dcsmyth1 Posted: June 14, 2006 at 10:52 PM (#2063970)
Hey Dan, is there a source for an explanation of the ZiPS process?
   5. dcsmyth1 Posted: June 14, 2006 at 11:04 PM (#2063979)
----"Other than the two real stinkers that Dusty let Marshall get his head beat in, he has pitched quite well."

Well, name any bad pitcher, and I'll find some starts where he was dominant. I'll also find some games where Pujols went Ofer. If you look hard enough, you can also probably find some turds that don't smell bad.

Me, I think that the entire sample is more indicative, especially when even the overall sample is small. Now, if Marshall had had a "Kerry Wood" type game, where he struck out 20 while only walking one (or whatever it was), that's a different story. But he hasn't.
   6. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: June 14, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#2064011)
As for Marmol, his Pecota projections are worse than Marshall's.

I don't think PECOTA can adequately project a player so new to pitching. In fact, I think there is a lot of reason to expect him to exceed projection systems because he's likely to learn faster than most players at the same level.
   7. Biscuit_pants Posted: June 15, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#2065419)
Well, name any bad pitcher, and I'll find some starts where he was dominant. I'll also find some games where Pujols went Ofer. If you look hard enough, you can also probably find some turds that don't smell bad.
I think a rookie is way more susceptible to having monumental bad games. Look at Zambrano's first 20 starts in baseball. When he figured out how to pitch on days he did not have his best stuff is when he became a great pitcher. Some pitchers never learn but most do. I am happy with Marshall thus far

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