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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, May 23, 2016Regression and PerspectiveI tend to think that sometimes “regression” is used too broadly when talking about a really good or really bad team. I know that it has a very specific meaning in statistics and projections, but part of my mind always goes to the non-statistical definition: “a return to a former or less developed state.” That’s probably a poor way of saying that we really shouldn’t be surprised that the Cubs have started looking downright mortal. For the season, the Cubs are down to 5.5 runs/g (6.2 in April, 4.8 in May) and 2.9 RA/g (2.6 in April and 3.3 in May). One of the reasons why I was never concerned about the offense even though the overall dropoff was to be expected, was that the Cubs were getting so little from either corner OF spot (still true) and having so many above average bats meant that a prolonged slump for the whole team wasn’t likely. That has been someone born out when you go player by player. Fowler is hitting .286/.396/.455 in May after having a 1.087OPS in April. Rizzo is hitting .263/.374/.474 with only 3HRs this month after going .218/.384/.577 with 8HRs in April (but hey - his BA is better!). Russell (.254/.342/.448 may, .214/.341/.343 april) and Zobrist (.394/.483/.662 may, .260/.396/.356 april) have actually improved, while Bryant only slightly dropped off (but more interestingly, he’s hit much better on the road this year - .312/.390/.538 vs .233/.325/.452 - after the exact opposite last year .243/.333/.360 vs .311/.408/.629). On the pitching side, the samples are even smaller, but overall is still pretty good. So while the last 10 games or so have been a little underwhelming (shutout twice, and only scored more than 3 runs 3 times), there’s on reason to be overly concerned. Just like there was no reason to assume that the total domination of early would continue indefinitely. As we’ve talked about before, there’s still a few roster issues to be sorted out, and there’s still a long, long way to go. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: May 23, 2016 at 04:34 AM | 33 comment(s)
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1. Andere RichtingenBut interestingly, they really didn't look that bad in this stretch. The pitching was decent: in this 4 and 7 stretch, there was really only one terrible start (Lester in SF) and two kinda crappy ones (Lackey against SD and Hendricks in MIL). The starters had a 3.51 RA. The bullpen was strong (8 runs in 29 IP) and really only had one game where they blew it (the first game in the SD doubleheader). The offense was what came short, but it wasn't that terrible: 40 runs in 11 games, and shut out twice. In the last seven losses, the Cubs lost by a total margin of 12 runs. Overall, despite losing 7/11 games, they still outscored their opponents 40 to 33.
They lost Heyward, but wouldn't you know it, Soler's bat has shown some life, and Szczur has come back hitting.
Of course the team is not perfect, and the imperfections are most visible when a team isn't winning games. The bullpen has come through when they were needed, but that's easier when you have eight relievers, and I think it could use another quality arm. And of course catchers occupy two of the four bench spots, one of whom is referred to as "Gramps" and is hitting like a much younger version of himself. As May turns to June, we have to wonder about Jason Hammel. I am sure attention is being paid to these issues.
That was the only start this year where the SP didn't go 5 innings. Amazing that streak lasted that long.
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It's a shame Ramirez didn't appear to recover from that injury, and he never really gained Maddon's trust. I'm ready for Richard to be gone, and yeah, the 3rd catcher thing is beyond annoying now.
Hopefully the answer here will be Wilson Contreras who's doing very nicely at AAA. 328/421/478 with more BB than K and a K-rate around 1/9. That's a nearly identical line to last year with an improvement in the K-rate. I have no idea where his defense is, he doesn't really have as many starts as I'd like to see but he became a C late. They will obviously wait at least long enough to make sure the super-2 deadline has passed.
They will obviously wait at least long enough to make sure the super-2 deadline has passed.
I'm pretty sure we're beyond this now. There's nothing to suggest that this is true.
Player Split OPS PAJason Heyward May .621 66
Jason Heyward April/March .604 99
Miguel Montero May .778 19
Miguel Montero April/March .649 57
Addison Russell May .790 76
Addison Russell April/March .684 85
Jorge Soler May .612 48
Jorge Soler April/March .610 68
Ben Zobrist May 1.145 88
Ben Zobrist April/March .752 91
Better April:
Player Split OPS PAJavier Baez April/March .838 31
Javier Baez May .521 53
Kris Bryant April/March .878 94
Kris Bryant May .845 94
Dexter Fowler April/March 1.087 95
Dexter Fowler May .850 91
Tommy La Stella April/March 1.203 29
Tommy La Stella May .777 44
Anthony Rizzo April/March .961 99
Anthony Rizzo May .847 91
David Ross April/March .851 39
David Ross May .724 41
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/24/2016.
But isn't the reason you don't want Ross for 50 starts because he's not that good? But Tim Federowicz is worse - much worse. So, how is that a solution? Frankly, a straight Montero-Ross platoon would be just fine on this team. Despite the team's recent offensive struggles, it can afford to stick Ross at #8 and still win games - heck, Ross is actually hitting well this season (OPS+ of 111) and I've really grown to appreciate and enjoy his defense / throwing arm.
Looking for silver linings in their recent struggles, the Cubs are 4 games below their Pythag, which is an eye-popping 33-10 - apply that Pythag to their remaining 119 games plus the 29 wins-in-hand adds up to a 120-42 season (no, I am not predicting a 120-42 season). The Cubs outscored the Giants in their series. And if I'm reading their results correctly, the Cubs have only lost 3 games all season by more than two runs (to the Rockies, Reds, and Padres).
Like I said before, the Cubs seem to want him to get better at the receiving part before he comes up (unless necessary).
(He also has Torres at #14.)
They won 16 games by blowout in 2015.
Year Matching L R OPS
2016 14 0 134 1.012
2013 14 1 126 1.018
1976 14 4 129 .967
1971 14 0 141 1.046
1963 14 1 143 1.088
1953 14 2 135 1.048
1916 14 2 118 .944
2014 11 0 111 1.021
1981 10 0 99 .994
1947 10 1 93 .975
1915 10 1 104 .996
1919 5 0 46 .929
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/25/2016.
Pretty big improvement from 2013-14 unless the rest of the season goes really badly. 57 in 1929 is the most. 36 in 2008 and 1998 is most since WW2.
4/4-4/19: .163/.339/.388, 3HR
4/20-5/11 (game 1): .368/.494/.794, 7HR
5/11 (game 2)-5/25: .120/.224/.200, 1hr
TOTAL: .239/.368/.503
That is some up and down so far. Cubs recent less than greatest team ever streak coincides with this current slump.
The Cubs now have a Pythag record of 37-11. If you apply their Pythag to their remaining 114 games plus the 34 wins-in-hand, they're now up to a 122-40 pace. Once again, no, I am not predicting a 122-40 season, although if the Cubs keep this up, I may have to ditch the disclaimer.
18-2 CHC
12-8 STL
10-3 BOX
10-4 DCN
10-4 SEA
10-7 PIT
9-4 CLE
8-4 CWS
8-4 SFG
8-7 BAL
7-6 NYM
7-7 TEX
7-8 ARI
6-3 LAD
6-4 TOR
6-8 LAA
6-11 COL
5-6 TBR
5-6 DET
5-7 NYY
4-5 HOU
4-5 SDP
4-7 MIA
4-7 MIL
4-8 KCR
4-10 ATL
4-11 OAK
2-10 MIN
2-12 CIN
1-8 PHI
Jason Hammel -- first half / second half splits in his career as a starting pitcher (2009-15):
2009: 4.43 ERA in 89.1 IP in the first half. 4.23 ERA in 87.1 IP in the second half
2010: 4.08 ERA in 90.1 IP in the first half. 5.56 ERA in 87.1 IP in the second half
2011: 4.23 ERA in 110.2 IP in the first half. 5.73 ERA in 59.2 IP in the second half
2012: 3.47 ERA in 106.1 IP in the first half. 3.09 ERA in 11.2 IP in the second half
2013: 5.24 ERA in 111.2 IP in the first half. 3.90 ERA in 27.2 IP in the second half
2014: 3.01 ERA in 113.2 IP in the first half. 4.31 ERA in 62.2 IP in the second half
2015: 2.86 ERA in 103.2 IP in the first half. 5.10 ERA in 67 IP in the second half.
That's six straight years where Hammel has been either: 1) injured in the second half, 2) ineffective in the second half, 3) both.
It works out to a 3.89 ERA in the first half and a 4.84 ERA in the second half. And with 45 more innings per year in the first half. Hammel's current 2.17 ERA is way over his head by any standards, and he's a great bet to fall off considerably in the second half.
The 1906 team would go 88-21 after May 30th. Good for a .806 winning percentage. Only the Pirates and the Yankees came close to matching that performance. The Rangers were the closest team to not getting at least 70 wins with 2011 being the only time they got 70 wins in a 112 game stretch in a season.
So, how about that bullpen? Starting pitcher goes down at the start of the 3rd w/ cramping? Ho-hum: 7 perfect innings by the bullpen. And only Wood pitched more than one inning, so they're not even burned out for the rest of the series. This team is unbelievable.
This season's team could be the first Cub team to have 4 players with 100 or more RBI since the 1929 team. It would also only be the third time it has happened in Cub history. The other interesting thing is that if you were to count the catchers as some sort of three headed monster there is a possibility that it will be 5 players to do it.
I'm thinking at the end of the day it will be just 3 players but it would be neat to have 4 guys do it.
Incredible. I think a key lurking variable is what happened to the Dodgers over the previous 24 hours: 1) play a Sunday night game on the West Coast, 2) fly to Chicago in the middle of the night, and 3) then play a late afternoon game at Wrigley.
I gotta figure that's part of the reason their bats were so dormant. Not to slight the job Travis Wood and the rest of the bullpen did, but as long as your starter has to leave the game really early like that, it sure helps if the opposition is dragging ass for reasons beyond anyone's control.
(Remember when Zambrano no-hit the Astros in Milwaukee, and Ted Lilly flirted with a no-hitter the next day? Team was distracted by the big hurricane hitting Houston. Yeah, it helps to play a team that's out of sync).
The rumor about the Eovaldi trade? Possibly make it about what pieces the Cubs need to make a good run and or what they can give up to get better.
Come on, Dag. As McCoy says a bit more eloquently, this is just makin' sh*t up.
I remember thinking it was weird before the game: a 4:05 PM start - don't recall seeing that before. Then I looked and though -- wait, the Dodgers have a day game following a night game ..... with an airplane flight in between. How often does that happen? It doesn't sound like something that occurs all that often in MLB.
I just heard Len Kasper say on the radio that the Dodgers flew into Chicago at 3:30 AM yesterday. What time did they get to the hotel? What time did they get to sleep?
Look, Travis Wood & company pitched great yesterday. But it sure helps to play against a day game against a team that went to bed at 5 AM than one that fell asleep at a normal time.
As defined ex post facto by James himself?
Sure, there's some narrative logic to that. But definitively attributing causality to such a factor in any one case (as so many reporters/writers/"analysts" so often do), let alone to say that you are sure it was because of "distraction by hurricane" or somesuch, is just makin' sh*t up. I mean, right there in your example - let's say they got in at 5 a.m. That's still time to get, what, 6 hours of sleep and get to Wrigley in plenty of time for warmups before a 4:05 start. I would bet that most people are capable of functioning perfectly well at work with 6 hours of sleep.
I don't know if it's worth a post, but it still irks me - as much as anything can irk someone in this storybook thus far - that the Cubs are losing these series against bad teams. I suppose they're beating up on the GOOD teams... but imagine if they hadn't lost of 2 of 3 to the Padres, dropped 2 of 3 against the Brewers, and 2 of 3 against the Rockies! Plus splitting the rain-abbreviated series with the lowly Braves. I guess they've smacked around the Reds pretty good - was gonna note the sweep against the Phillies, but the Phils are playing well.
IIRC, the Giants are the only .500+ team to win a series against the Cubs.
NO JINX! But I find myself disappointed the Sox have come back down to earth - was looking forward to the possibility of an L series. I just hope the Sox can find a way to right the ship in the next week or so because - see above.
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