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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, September 30, 2019RegretsEven though I was one of the people saying the Cubs should move on from Maddon, now that it’s official I find myself second-guessing how strongly I thought it was the right move. Obviously, my opinion doesn’t matter at all and this would be the reality regardless of how I felt, but now I feel much less sure that it was the right move. Maybe I’m just being nostalgic for how great those 5 years were. I always bristled at the general (or non-Cubs) fan who said keeping Maddon was a no-brainer because of how good the Cubs have been under him and the fact that the next manager is likely to be, at best, less accomplished, and at worst, clearly inferior. Regardless, I still will always have fond memories of the Maddon era, and not just the absolute highs of 2015-2016. The 2nd half of 2017 and the NLDS against the Nats were also great, and there are plenty of guys who likely wouldn’t be who they are without him as a coach (mainly Javy; a lesser or more insecure manager would have tried to change Javy in a lot of ways that would make him less fun and likely not nearly as good). However, all good things end, and so now the question is who’s next. I really have a hard time understanding why David Ross is such a wide-spread favorite - I mean, I “get” how popular he was (though honestly, I really don’t understand the why of that either), plus the Cubs have given him tons of free PR. Maybe there’s a scenario where he is the best choice, but I’ll have a hard accepting it initially unless the Cubs are a lot more open in their interview process than I expect them to be. I feel like Joe Girardi has not so quietly been publicly campaigning for this year since the Yankees fired him, and I don’t think I’d have much of a problem with him. If the Cubs really are serious that the team needs some sort of culture change, it probably rules out “future managers” like Will Venable and Mark Loretta, though I the Cubs have been grooming both to be candidates. There probably is a lot to be said for targeting a coach from outside the org, especially if they’re coming from one of the teams that have been successful lately (meaning, someone from the Astros, Dodgers, or Red Sox). I have to think at least Tommy Hottovoy is safe - the Cubs have plenty of precedent in keeping pitching coaches across managers - and maybe even the hitting staff is safe too (if only because they’ve changed guys there every year for 3 years now). Maybe that ends up ruling out Girardi and has them leaning towards a first time guy. I’d absolutely love Francona, if the Indians decided they needed a change, too. Sometime in the next month or so, maybe I’ll be ready to do some sort of season recap, but I’m not there yet, plus they’re likely to hire a new manager well before any player moves start happening. In the meantime, any rumors I see I’ll be sure to post here. If nothing else, it’s time to move on from that cursed thread. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: September 30, 2019 at 09:21 AM | 160 comment(s)
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Positives:
1. Darvish. Has to be the top spot here, because from 2/3 of the season he was a legit ace and was living up to that deal. Technically, he has an opt out, but he probably won't beat 4/$80mil at his age with his injury history.
2. Schwarber. He was pretty bad again early, but damn near great the 2nd half. Had I written something like this around mid-season, I would have definitely predicted him as being moved this offseason. He still could, but I think his bat in the 2nd half (.280/.366/.631) was finally what the Cubs were hoping it would be.
3. Nico - I don't know if he's ready or not, but he's at least shown he can probably be at least a league average starter. That's big for the Cubs.
4. Castellanos. I have no idea if it makes sense to keep him or not, but he was awesome, and I'd have no problem bringing him back if that's how it plays out.
5? I don't know quite what to make of Happ, but he really finished strong. His overall season numbers look really good now, but he did nothing in AAA. Maybe he has some trade value now? Maybe the Cubs are more comfortable with him as the 4th OF/5th IF going forward?
6. Parts of the pen. The pitching lab maybe works some now - Wick and Wieck look like keepers.
Negatives:
1. I'm assuming Zobrist will retire. He'll probably be gone if he doesn't, but he kinda got his farewell yesterday. It's a shame this season went the way it did, but he was somewhat useful this year and overall I'll have fond memories of his time here.
2. Heyward. I mean, sure his bat was finally almost league average (98 OPS+), but that's in easily his best year and just as his defense is starting to go. I kinda hope the Cubs can get someone to take him off their hands this year (well subsidized, of course).
3. Kimbrel. Ugh.
4. Quintana. I'm probably worrying too much - his FIP wasn't terrible, but that last month scared me.
There's more, but that's off the top of my head.
If he really thinks that's the case, that mitigates against bringing in Ross as manager. "We've leaned on 2016 too much. We need to do that less. So let's hire Grandpa Rossy as our manager." Doesn't quite flow.
'course, it could be that they feel Ross's personal attributes and strengths outweigh that. But hiring him would cut against what Theo said today.
Alas on the other hand, it all adds to about the same as last year. The overall rate stats are really close oddly enough. One issue with 2018 was a high G/F and this year he was back to standard. His HR/FB was the same as last year, it was more flyballs. Still, for sure, I'd like to see what he does next year ... but for a reasonable deal, I'd be willing to see him do it for another team.
Happ's another interesting guy -- too small a sample and he added about 180 points to his OPS over the last 8 games. Nearly all OK to good performances are some mix of really good and pretty crap stretches so maybe he's at a new level or maybe he just ended on one of those hot stretches. Possibly somebody the Cubs really need to decide on -- if Schwarber is traded he has a big role; if not and Castellanos is re-signed, then he has no role. But LF, RF, some CF, injury insurance for Rizzo, 2B if Hoerner/Bote flop would be a nice thing to have if he's productive.
In the spirit of offseason optimism, I'll add two more positives. Contreras' bat bounced all the way back which I'll admit I didn't really expect. Obviously more health would be very nice. And Rowan Wick looked good. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I doubt that 0 HR in 33 innings is sustainable but it is promising; the walk rate's higher than you'd like and the very low H/9 probably can't be sustained either. But he could be the next Steve Cishek or similar.
Is .287 really below what you'd expect for a slowish lefty in the era of the shift and launch angle? A pretty high percentage of his hard hit balls leave the park.
I agree with Dag (and Clapper) here about the differing things being said. There's also been too many times the last few years where the Cubs talked about missing someone like Ross for me to be completely comfortable that they're really considering him with the proper amount of perspective. I'm very skeptical that any objective evaluation of him as a manager candidate is really possible, and I'd highly suspect him being the choice would include too much of a 2016 impact.
Also from that piece:
Some of Theo's extended quotes, which Dag mentioned:
Some editorializing from Sharma:
Someone somewhere wondered if the Cubs would consider trading Contreras to sign someone like Grandal in a thread somewhere, I guess that's probably more realistic than the trade Bryant/sign Rendon idea.
That right there should disqualify -- not the stupidity of the nickname (alas, common) but that the GM and presumably many of the players still think of him as "Rossy the teammate."
Is .287 really below what you'd expect for a slowish lefty in the era of the shift and launch angle?
No but I didn't want to get into the detail. His career BABIP is only 273. However, that is an issue with him. A low BABIP for a power, fairly extreme FB hitter is fine. I did make a small boo-boo on describing his G/F -- I was accidentally looking at GO/AO thinking it was GB/FB and thinking that was a lot higher than I thought and higher than league average. It's still true that his G/F this year was back in line with his career which is much lower than league average while in 2018 he was league average. With the same LD%, HR/FB% and IF/FB% as last year, the difference to 2018 is about more FBs and more contact (mostly big drop in BB rate vs 2018).
EDIT: Also I missed Moses' mention of Wick so I only added one bit of optimism.
EDIT2: As to Theo's comments -- what do people expect him to say? If he says "Ross will not be considered" it (a) is exceptionally rude and blunt and (b) creates a media shitstorm. Really all he says is he'll be considered, he's an attractive candidate (which he probably says about anybody) but that he'll be judged on the merits like everybody else. If he really is the favorite right now, it's probably because Theo knows more about his "merits" than any other candidates except maybe Loretta and Venable.
The Zonk OOTP 2019 Cubs are now looking to defend their 2019-2020-2021 three-peat. And sitting at 79-26 near the trading deadline? We're in good shape. We recycled a bunch of veterans through the rotation and nabbed draft picks from their FA departures (Bumgarner, Teheran, Tanaka). We ditched Yu for 120 saves from Kenley Jansen.
Ian Happ has developed into a 5 WAR high K/high BB slugger. Kris Bryant has settled into a nice Evan Longoria role - and agreed to 25 million for another 3 years with team options thereafter. Rizzo won an MVP in 2020, but sadly, we had to let him to walk to LAD because he wanted 35m+. But - a three-headed monster of Brendan McKay, Forrest Wall, and Daulton Varsho is more than filling his lineup spot. Willy got moved for a JT Realmuto rental (+ draft pick and Dylan Cozens and Adam Haseley). Schwarbs posted a couple 35 HRs seasons before heading a package that fetched Jacob deGrom.
Durbin Feltman, Wyatt Mills, Richard Lovelady, Jared Miller, and Zach Pop have formed the greatest bullpen of the 20s... The rotation includes a couple of imports and Griffin Canning, Cal Quantrill, and Mackenzie Gore on the way - all under team team control for another 5 years.
The offense has more pieces than we know what to do with - Austin Hays made the 2022 ASG despite the fact that he's a 4th OF playing behind Happ, Christian Yelich, and Joc Pederson (who he should really be starting over, but I'm arguing with my manager on that at the moment). Nick Solak has turned into Joe Morgan.... and what's more - we've got the top SS prospect (Brayan Rocchio), top corner IF prospect (Keoni Cavaco), and a few top 100 prospects (Corbin Carroll, Riley Greene) in the OF.
In short? Three-peat 120 win championship seasons, the best farm system in baseball, and no bad contracts to worry about....
This. Anyone is going to get nice things said about them if the media presses Theo on him. This is the way basically every managerial/coaching search in every sport has always gone since forever. Theo even went out of his way to discount the 2016 connection and still it's, "he's probably the favorite because of 2016."
Facts are, 1) we don't have the foggiest idea what the FO is thinking and 2) the media has nothing to do but spin their wheels over it for the next couple weeks. So we're in for a spell of all kinds of nonsense. Already I just want it to be over.
Cubs also confirmed they'll interview Venable and Loretta.
"Look, we all know that Loretta can't be manager, which is nobody's fault, not even the Romans, but that he has the right to be manager."
I didn't realize that they were two different people.
I mean, I suppose I should have - but somehow my mind kind of went to Max and Will being the same person.... My mind kind of forgot that this would mean a 30+ year career.
---
More on Theo talking about accountability, no stone left unturned, etc. All very similar to last year, to be honest. More can be read between the lines here, but nothing new per se:
Sharma does speculate on the Cubs keeping Hottovy and Iapoce.
Me too! And he is now the only player I know of who has the full name of a president, or major party candidate, who didn't play for the Cubs:
Theodore Roosevelt Lilly
Grover Cleveland Alexander
Calvin Coolige...McLish
Samuel J Tilden Sheckard
William Jennings Bryan Herman
Mine was Bob Brenly, of all people.
But I decided to actually check. They scored 814 runs in 162 years. In the last 40 years, 31 different teams have played 162 games while scoring 809-819 runs. So that's a good control sample.
Those 31 teams were shutout an average of 6.4 times per season. The 2019 Cubs were shut out eight times.
Those 31 teams were held to exactly one run 13.7 times per season. The 2019 Cubs were held to exactly one run fourteen times.
Those 31 teams were held to exactly two runs 18.8 times. The 2019 Cubs were held to exactly two runs 26 times.
In all, the control group was held to 0-2 runs 38.9 times per year. The 2019 Cubs? 46 times.
In fact, none of the 31 other teams were held to 0-2 runs as many times as the Cubs were. Two of them (1988 Red Sox and 2006 Rockies) were held to 0-2 runs 45 times, just one less. And those teams were shutout the most times (13 for the Red Sox, 12 for the Rockies). The eight times the Cubs were shutout? Well, it's just 1.6 more than average, but only four teams were shutout more than eight times, and just two others exactly eight times. For that matter, the Cubs 26 times scoring two runs was the second highest total overall (28 for the 1980 Brewers).
Upshot: Yeah, they were too boom/bust. Scoring 0-2 runs makes it tough to win and they scored at that level more than they should've given their overall offensive production. The same was true of the team in 2018.
There's also a few GIFs in there showing the differences he's made.
Regardless, on the surface, he seems to be clearly the best CF FA out there.
Bryant seems high - up from $12.9. Russell will be non-tendered (maybe resigned after that, but I sure hope not). Javy up from $5.2mil, I could see that but I'm much more hopeful he just signs a long term extension. Schwarber up from $3.4mil, so that's definitely too high. Contreras's first year in arb, but I could see him getting that much. Almora and Ryan are probably pretty close, not enough to have a strong opinion one way or the other.
Everyone assumes Maddon will go to the Angels, but with the Mets and Phillies jobs open he might be able to squeeze enough money out of Moreno to not take a pay cut (or even get a raise).
It certainly felt that way.
Probably not. For "count" distributions, the mean and variance are strongly related but there's no particular reason to think it matters much what the distribution of other teams is. Pretty much any 5.0 r/g team would have about the same variance in scoring. Possibly there's some connection between HR-driven offenses and variation but I'd guess that acts to increase variance not decrease it.
I wouldn't read much into Dag's numbers -- it's basically 7 too many exactly 2-run games. It's more the timing -- between Sept 17 and Sept 25 (8 games), the Cubs scored exactly 2 5 times and 1 run once, losing all 6 games (and of course also the 2 games in which they scored some runs). Everything, including the distribution Dag found, was looking pretty normal until that stretch.
Interesting. But the history of NPB position players coming over is not good. Ohtani of course has hit very well. Before that you have Nori Aoki who came over in 2012 at age 30 and put up a 285/350/387 line (102 OPS+ which would be fine for a solid defensive CF and the 350 OBP would look fine at leadoff). Before that it is Fukudome in 2008 and 258/359/395, 99.
FWIW, in their preceding 3 years in Japan:
NA: OPS around 850, SLG around 440
KF: OPS>1000, SLG around 580
Aoki actually had a terrible final season in Japan (718 OPS). He went back for 2 years, age 36-37, and averaged about a 850 OPS.
I assume NPB 2017-19 is not the same as NPB 8 and 12 years ago so you'll have to find somebody who knows what he's talking about to say how Akiyama's numbers comp to those two but they're reasonably similar to Aoki's in raw terms. As long as the glove is good enough, that would be fine.
Espada is interviewing today. Beltran turned down an interview and only will interview with the Mets.
Cubs are going to interview Gabe Kapler this week.
Whether or not Thed see Ross as a favorite, it's clear everyone in the media does and that leaks into every story/tweet about the search. They supposedly aren't interviewing anyone else (Wittenmeyer's article says Girardi really wants the Mets job).
---
Cubs announced a bunch of Front Office changes/promotions today. Just like Jason McLeod, Jaron Madison was moved out of the scouting/player development side. Those two were the names talked about most, and that's the area that Cubs have been worst in. End of the release says there's still external hires to be announced.
MYSTERY CANDIDATE!!!!
I remain...skeptical...that this is the right move.
The guy's last career plate appearance was a home run in game 7 of the world series. Which is a nice way to boost your legacy.
The problem with the perfect ending in real life is that it encourages you to keep going and not make it the ending. What are the odds now that David Ross gets carried off the field in his last game wearing a major-league uniform?
Spot on.
There was another - The New Class - that lasted 7 seasons somehow... Which is somewhat amazing because it only included Mr Belding and Screech from the original.... Neither of whom looked as good in swimwear as Tiffany did.
To clarify - I only have the depth of knowledge of the second spin-off because I kept waiting for Tiffany's guest appearance.... that never came.
"Good morning, fellow Cubs."
Maybe he'll manage in a suit.
This is a different situation than what we're used to. The last time the Cubs let a manager go after a winning season was Jim Lefebvre in 1993. I can see how the guy who was viewed as a, if not the, clubhouse leader could return to get a little something extra out of a pretty decent roster that's looking a bit tired. Ross seems like he will be a little more of a details guy and less of a clubhouse philosopher than Maddon, which seems like a positive change. He's young, and he played with eight major league teams -- that is worth something. My guess is that he's willing to embrace a sabermetric approach, having been vetted by Epstein and Hoyer. We'll see what we get, but I don't see any red flags. My biggest concern for the off-season is the roster, not the manager.
I also think Maddon is a good match for the Angels.
Perhaps it makes sense that a baseball exec named Epstein would go for that old trope.
He's played for Maddon, Francona, Bobby Cox, Dusty, and Bochy (among others), so he has seen a lot.
Last official AB. He walked in the 9th, Coghlan ran for him. (Your point stands of course.)
Not that it matters either way...
Javy is a snub, but probably not a huge one considering he missed almost a month end of the year. Ahmed, Story, and DeJong are the 3 finalists.
My view on this is that ... fine, but he'll have to justify it. It's reasonable to suspect that his 2016 magic played an outsized role in getting the job, so, prove me wrong.
I also think that Andere makes a good point that Espada would have been an unknown, too, so there's really no point in comparing them. So we'll see how it turns out.
Still seems suspect, though. How can it not?
Frankly, though, about 60% of what I feel about it is just relief that it's not Girardi.
OK, but this is ... I'm sorry, but this is just dumb.
The first two reasons are reasons that you'd keep him, not trade him away. And while he might bring a good return, he won't bring a return in *present value* that's substantially better than what he himself provides. If the Cubs were bad, and needed to rebuild, then sure you trade the great present value for future value, although even the limits of that are tested by a guy with three years of control left. But a win-now team like the Cubs can't do that.
So sure, maybe they can trade for equal present value at a different position. But that still leaves you with the problem that Willson is a really good catcher! And while Caratini "wasn't bad", he wasn't all that good - a decent bat, indifferent defensively. Basically, he was a solid backup, and there's no reason to think he can be a full-time catcher that provides anywhere near the value Willson does. This is the kind of trade you make when you have another prospect stud waiting to take over that's being blocked, not when you have Victor Caratini next in line.
But agreed, you don't trade just for the sake of trading. Cubs' main needs are 2B, CF, pen, one SP but there are no good FA options at 2B and CF. If they can land a real solution at one of those, a Contreras trade might be worth it.
Two in-house replacements, if they make Ross player-manager. ;)
Not to pile on and merely to play devil's advocate, but maybe the Cubs see Amaya as closer than we think. Caratini is far from indifferent at defense compared to Willson - in fact he's a pretty decent improvement per both FG and BPro. He's not good at throwing out basestealers, but that is pretty much the only thing Willson is better at defenisvely. Willson had 2.7fWAR last year in 409PAs and Caratini was at 1.4 in 279, so it's much closer that we like to think. Now, how much of that is framing - something Willson is objectively terrible at and Caratini is decent?
So the idea would be to trade from excess to fill another hole (be it SP or 2b or CF). A slight downgrade at C for a big upgrade elsewhere is worth thinking about. I think Willson will bring back the most value - probably even more than Bryant considering cost and the extra year of control. He's also already 27 and has had some injury issues.
Now, to be clear, I'm not hoping they trade him, and even if they did it could still turn out to be a terrible trade. I think he makes the most sense of any of the names that could be traded (in addition to Bryant, Schwarber just isn't getting you much back in return, Javy is much harder to replace, etc).
I think there's enough other reasons to consider moving him that I doubt the framing could be considered the main one.
-Theo intro talks about winning culture, natural leader, and Ross has done a bunch behind the scenes to get ready to be a manager
-Early on, but his comments/answers are pretty...generic and shallow? He also sounds pretty nervous, to be honest
-Ross mentions he got a list from Theo when he retired of things he needed to do as a special ass't and he checked them all off, nothing specific though
-Cliche, cliche, cliche
-One answer he mentions the "Grandpa Rossy" image 3 times he has and how that's not all he is
-He didn't have any doubts during the interview process that he'd get the job; maybe he's answering the question differently than it was asked but that's what his answer sounded like
-Theo says you wouldn't hire Ross if you want a puppet for the FO and doesn't think he'll be a yes man
-Cliche, cliche, accountability, cliche
Alright, I'm out. This is just worthless and I'm wasting me time.
Good.
Sounds like Ross might want John Farrell to be his bench coach. Everyone assumes pitching and hitting coaches will be back.
Cubs officially picked up Rizzo's and Quintana's options, but declined Holland's and Morrow's; all were no-brainers but the Cubs could still theoretically trade Quintana. Cubs also declined Graveman's option; he spent all year last year rehabbing from Tommy John and his option was only $3mil, so his rehab must have been going pretty terrible (or the Cubs are counting every penny again).
3b coach Butterfield and strength/conditioning coach Buss both followed Maddon to the Angels. Butterfield was a Maddon hire, but Buss has been with the Cubs since I think 2001 (though obviously not always that same job).
Had Phelps pitched in 2 fewer games, his option would have been $3mil not $5mil, which I bet the Cubs would have picked up.
CJ a FA.
Who knows.
Which, is fine in the sense that this is a successful organization and I'm not sure that a lot of radical changes are needed. It's just that they won't shut up about all these big changes that never seem to actually happen. At some point, it's got to affect morale within the ranks that there's so much talk and so little action.
Which, is fine in the sense that this is a successful organization and I'm not sure that a lot of radical changes are needed. It's just that they won't shut up about all these big changes that never seem to actually happen. At some point, it's got to affect morale within the ranks that there's so much talk and so little action.
From the outside, there's already been a ton more changes this year than last, and not just Maddon/coaches that turn over there. Even if everyone of these moves is the perfect move for the team, from the outside we might not be able to tell at all anytime soon. As for the players, yeah, I'm very much in the "wait and see" mode, because I surely expected a lot more turnover last year that never happened.
So that's one problem, and the other that comes to mind is how the plan would interact with contract obligations. If a team's player gets shot dead following a strikeout, is the team still on the hook to the player's family for the whole contract? If not, you'd see teams trying to maximize, say, Heyward's at-bats against Josh Hader, in hopes of getting lucky. I'm not so sure that's what we would want.
All in all, I still think the most elegant solution is to have a pitch clock and to require the batter to remain in the box, both enforced by wolverines.
Cubs did hire Andy Green as bench coach; well, I guess it's not official but it's not longer being reported as just likely.
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There sure seems like way too much smoke on moving Contreras now. Sharma makes the case for it. I've seen a number of places talk about the teams that are/should be most likely to trade for him. Again, in a perfect world, I wouldn't do this. But I think I can be convinced it has its merits, but obviously a ton depends on the return/veteran addition.
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I'd absolutely take a flier on him with a minor league deal.
I'm surprised he hasn't tweeted a followup that's a little more clear, but this is a pretty important hire.
At least Bruce was right.
It pains me to say it because I like Willson quite a bit but I think it is a rational conclusion depending on how the rest of MLB views pitch framing. Or, I guess, if at least one catcher-needy team with value to give isn't concerned about it.
Dont the cubs have a ton of catching prospects in the minors? Wouldnt moving one of them make more sense and not create a huge hole that is currently filled by a cheap player.
The Cubs are looking to alleviate the issue of everybody hitting FA at once. Trading minor leaguers won't help with their looming balloon payment on talent.
Right. Theo has talked about how Contreras improved as the year went on, and the numbers support that. I'd hate to see him go, but in the right deal could eventually accept it.
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I guess this is a pretty good endorsement for the Cubs new VP Scouting:
I don't know anything about Kantrovitz, but I love this quote of endorsement from a member of the Cardinals front office.
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