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Cubs have never been more than 1 game above or below .500 this year so far. This week is a little tougher - @CLE, MIL - so starting to pull away from .500 would be nice.
2. McCoy
Posted: April 23, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5658584)
Maybe there's just something about Maddon and/or his spring trainings that lends itself to slow starts. Maddon teams the last 10+ years and (March)/April record with final win totals.
5. Brian C
Posted: April 23, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5658692)
Almora. He’s really taking this opportunity to play everyday and running with it. He still swings at damn near everything, but for now he’s making contact.
His K rate is down, sure, but it's not really just "for now" - Almora's always been a pretty decent contact guy. Last year, only Rizzo, Heyward, and Zobrist struck out on a lower percentage of their PAs on the team.
As for the rest, eh. If the starting pitching gets just a little better and the offense gets a little more consistent (not even better, just more consistent), then this is an easy 95-win team. If the starting pitching gets really good and the offense stays the same, they're an easy 95-win team. And if the offense gets a little more consistent and the starting pitching gets really good, they're pretty much invincible. As is, they're probably a little unlucky to be 10-9, but they're still obvious playoff contenders.
I guess my point is, with 19 games under their belts, they seem a lot closer to being an 12-7 type team than 8-11 type team. I feel like it'll work itself out.
While the rest of the team moved on, Chicago Cubs shortstop Addison Russell had to spend Sunday night in a Denver hospital after suffering an allergic reaction to something he ate on a postgame spread in the clubhouse.
Russell is allergic to shellfish, and thinks something had shrimp in it and was mistakenly labeled, he told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Brian - oh, I totally agree. I'm positive they've got a big rush somewhere in their near future. Too much talent.
As for almora, I phrased that poorly. How many of his hits this weekend were bloop shots? That, plus his less than stellar patience would seem to imply that his current hitting may not be sustainable. I'll take the good luck while we can though and do think he can be a decent batting average hitter.
919 wins overall. So, I reckon that means a 919-700 record overall*. That's a winning percentage of ..... .568. Essentially identical to the April record. Post-April record: 784-594 (.569).
Not seeing much special about Maddon & April.
*(I know the Cubs had 161 decisions one year under him. I'm too lazy to check them all, so I'll assume 1619 games played over all).
-Baez. My goodness, what a fun ride this is right now. .292/.363/.736. Yes, it’s probably just a hot streak; yes, the OBP is a little inflated by the 4 early IBBs (his last non-IBB BB was 2 weeks ago). What if it’s not just a hot streak though? Is a .300/.330/.500 line for the year that outlandish or unlikely?
It's not what I would predict but it's possible. Sammy Sosa hit .300/.339/.545 in his age 25 season.
-Schwarber. Like Baez, he was scuffling a bit early on. He’s now up to .293/.414/.552. He’s barely playing against lefties (15 PA) and not hitting them at all (.083/.267/.167). The early caveat always applies, but he’s striking out less and walking more.
I would let him hone his craft a bit more against righties and ease him slowly into facing lefties.
The rotation is the biggest concern right now, but it's early.
10. McCoy
Posted: April 24, 2018 at 09:27 AM (#5658891)
I don't see how Baez's OBP and SLG go down significantly and yet his BA would go up. I think .280 to .290ish is where he ends up if this is one of his good seasons with the bat. .320ish in OBP and .480 to .520 in SLG. Something like .280/.315/.480 to .290/.325/.520.
I don't see how Baez's OBP and SLG go down significantly and yet his BA would go up. I think .280 to .290ish is where he ends up if this is one of his good seasons with the bat. .320ish in OBP and .480 to .520 in SLG. Something like .280/.315/.480 to .290/.325/.520.
His career BABIP is .330, this year he's at .292. His slugging will come down because it's just not sustainable where it is, but some of those hits will still be there - they'll just be singles. Last year in the 2nd half he hit .291/.340/.511. He's changed some as a hitter since last year (as highlighted in that linked article), so I think some of those changes will stick. Working from that 2nd half last year, I bumped up the BA a little, dropped the OBP down (because he still got 8 IBB in the 2nd half, and unless he's hitting 8th he's just not going to get as many IBBs and I'm still not convinced he's going to take more BBs) and then overcorrected on the SLG because anything over .500 felt like wishcasting. Then again, if he slugs around .500 the rest of the year, he'll finish comfortably over that .500 mark.
Yeah, I did a little more with that after posting it. In 6 of those years, the April win% was less than the total for the year, and no, it doesn't show anything. I just saw a number of .500ish Aprils that still turned into 90+ wins.
I would let him hone his craft a bit more against righties and ease him slowly into facing lefties.
Agreed. But at some point, he'll have to start seeing some of them more. I just worry about him being too easily removed from a playoff game when a LOOGY comes in.
The left fielder has posted a 166 wRC+, he’s walking an incredible 17.1 percent of the time and he’s hitting for average as well (.293). This is the type of player Schwarber has always felt he could be, and while he may not maintain all of these numbers, it’s really encouraging to see the way he’s gone about putting together that statistical line.
Last season, Schwarber had 22 hits to left field and in 2015, he had 10. This year, he’s already at six. And when it comes to hitting the ball on the ground that way, he’s already got four. In 2015 and 2017, he combined for eight. If he can continue even close to this pace, teams are going to stop putting on such a dramatic shift against him and it’s going to open up more holes to his pull side.
According to FanGraphs' split tool, not only does Schwarber have six hits to left field, but he has five to center and six to right. He’s truly spraying the ball all over and the results have been spectacular. Certain players are starting to figure it out at the plate, and Schwarber is prime among them. That can’t be a good sign for opposing pitchers.
He's had quite a few loud outs into the shift that would be hits against something played straight up, so it'll be interesting to watch this as the year goes on. From what we've seen so far, teams really shift hard against quite a few of the Cubs hitters. It's always a fun contrast to see that with the Cubs not shifting that much.
Maddon says on his weekly radio show on WSCR that Bryant is "fine" but says it's "50-50" whether he starts tonight
16. Brian C
Posted: April 24, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5659214)
That sounds reasonable - I think he's the only regular who's started every game, so he was probably due for a day off sometime anyway. Might as well make it the game after getting beaned. Makes all kinds of sense.
Yeah, they're blowing teams out just fine. Unlike 2016, they're not scoring almost as often as they're scoring 10. I do think consistency will come - the lineup is better this year than last. Once the SP gets going, they'll be more than fine.
The Cubs non-pitchers are currently hitting .274/.363/.463. It's kind of weird seeing so many guys hitting .300 or above. All while Rizzo is only at .170/.290/.226. To be clear, this is just a post of me admiring those numbers.
Agreed. But at some point, he'll have to start seeing some of them more. I just worry about him being too easily removed from a playoff game when a LOOGY comes in.
I think that's a process that should start now, and maybe it is starting. Schwarber still isn't starting against LHP but I think he isn't necessarily going to get pulled when one comes in (on Sunday he faced three different lefty relievers). Four of his 19 PAs against LHP have come in the last two games, where he was left in against a lefty, and he's grounded out twice, walked and struck out -- I'll take not hitting the ball hard over striking out four times.
Let him build a high level of confidence against RHP and slowly let that bleed over to facing LHP. Hopefully by August he's starting every day and chasing a 50 HR season.
It was essentially decided yesterday that KB wouldn't play today. They're giving him another day to be cautious and will continue to monitor the situation. No official change in his status as of yet.
I call BS here. See my Maddon quote above. If they decided yesterday he wasn't going to play the next 2 days, I could see not rushing out to say that. I could also see Maddon playing up the possibility of him playing yesterday (though I can't give a good reason why). I mean, I'm just saying I wonder if he does have concussion symptoms and they don't want to talk about it.
EDIT: Here's another Maddon quote from yesterday: "I think he's fine," manager Joe Maddon had said before Tuesday's game. "He just has to work through some things."
And the dream of having all 5 first rounders in the starting lineup remains elusive. It's unlikely that Schwarber will ever catch again, certainly not as a starter. Joe apparently doesn't want Happ at 2nd any more, and an OF of Schwarber, Almora, and Happ is also doubtful, that leaves games in AL parks, where the starter is a RHP. They have 3 games at KC, 2 at DET, and 3 at CHW. So 8 more chances this year, plus WS road games.
#Cubs are still monitoring Kris Bryant, who is supposed to see team doctor tomorrow in Chicago and might return to lineup that night in a best-case scenario. Joe Maddon: “I really anticipate good soon. If anything went the other way, I think we’d be surprised.”
So help me... I will burn German Marquez to the ground.
27. Walt Davis
Posted: April 25, 2018 at 07:45 PM (#5660473)
Overall, the Cubs already had a healthy lead in R/G in the NL before the 10 runs at Cleveland. Before yesterday (so I assume unchanged/improved), Cub hitters had the 3rd lowest K-rate in the NL.
-Baez. My goodness, what a fun ride this is right now. .292/.363/.736. Yes, it’s probably just a hot streak; yes, the OBP is a little inflated by the 4 early IBBs (his last non-IBB BB was 2 weeks ago). What if it’s not just a hot streak though? Is a .300/.330/.500 line for the year that outlandish or unlikely?
I mentioned in a newsstand thread that I am seeing some signs of Sosa 98. Not that I expect 60 HR but just in being a bit more patient. Sosa's K-rate didn't really go down in his peak years but all of us in real time were noting that he was flailing at genuine crappy pitches a lot less often, going the other way more often ... and of course once the HRs started to pile up, pitchers were much more careful with him.
Putting Baez #2 in the order could be huge (assuming Bryant returns). The walks won't come even if the HRs do because nobody wants to put him on in front of Bryant and Rizzo but that also means that if he can lay off most of those really bad pitches, they're going to have to throw him stuff he can hit. There have never been any issues with the quality of Javy's contact. Early yet and in the midst of a super hot streak but his K-rate is down quite a bit so far this year (29% career, 21% this year ... that's the same sort of change we saw Bryant pull off).
-Schwarber. Like Baez, he was scuffling a bit early on. He’s now up to .293/.414/.552. He’s barely playing against lefties (15 PA) and not hitting them at all (.083/.267/.167). The early caveat always applies, but he’s striking out less and walking more.
FWIW, Baez has only 25 PA against LHP so they haven't exactly hidden Schwarber yet. Joe also rarely (ever?) PHs for him against LHR ... unless of course it sets up the inning to bring Heyward to bat against LHP with the game on the line. :-)
-Almora. He’s really taking this opportunity to play everyday and running with it. He still swings at damn near everything, but for now he’s making contact. And if his defense stays like this, he probably should be out there damn near every day.
Yeah, this has been big and the defense has been excellent. Although I don't expect Joe to change his ways (and I'm not sure he should), a prime defensive CF gives him more latitude to sit Heyward's bat.
Nitpick on Joe: When LaStella starts (only 4 times so far), I will never understand why he's not in the lead-off spot. That's exactly the kind of hitter he is. And against RHP (only time LaStella starts unless it's a real emergency), it avoids the 3 RHB at the top (A/B/B). Even last night L/B/R/C/S/R/H/A looks much better and has L-R balance all the way through. Or swap Almora and Heyward or Almora and Russell.
Nitpick on Joe: When LaStella starts (only 4 times so far), I will never understand why he's not in the lead-off spot. That's exactly the kind of hitter he is. And against RHP (only time LaStella starts unless it's a real emergency), it avoids the 3 RHB at the top (A/B/B). Even last night L/B/R/C/S/R/H/A looks much better and has L-R balance all the way through. Or swap Almora and Heyward or Almora and Russell.
Yeah, this is a good point. Zobrist is similar to LaStella, and Zo obviously isn't Joe's first choice to lead off either, but Zo's done it although only after other guys have tried and failed. If I had to guess, I'd say it's because LaStella is more likely to make contact and Joe would rather have that bat in a spot where they're likely driving in runs. Partly, because hitting with RISP has been such a consistent problem with this team Joe's entire tenure (it's almost all they talked about with the Chili Davis hiring). It's why Zobrist hits 4th or 5th so much, and why LaStella was hitting in between Contreras and Schwarber these 2 DH games in Cleveland when Bryant was out.
FWIW, Baez has only 25 PA against LHP so they haven't exactly hidden Schwarber yet. Joe also rarely (ever?) PHs for him against LHR ... unless of course it sets up the inning to bring Heyward to bat against LHP with the game on the line. :-)
Fair enough. Schwarber has sat against most LHP SP so far (though not all, it seems like more than Heyward has sat). But yes, he's been staying in against the RP.
I am starting to get a little more than concerned with Russell. I have a feeling that if Zobrist was healthy, we might see Russell getting more time off (Javy SS, Zo 2B). It still might have happened in Cleveland if Bryant also wasn't out.
Kris Bryant is scheduled to see Dr. Stephen Adams on Thursday in Chicago and a best-case scenario might be the team physician clearing him to be in the lineup that night against the Brewers at Wrigley Field. A Cubs official said the former NL MVP has not been put into Major League Baseball’s concussion protocol after getting drilled in the head with a pitch on Sunday at Coors Field.
Is he having vision problems? Headaches? A busted nose? Nightmares? A bruised ego?
Hendricks was awesome last night. Actually, he was awesome most of the Rockies game save the first inning. Lester pitched his best game of the year the other night in Cleveland, though the homers hurt (only 1 was a really bad pitch though, IMO).
Kris Bryant would not divulge any problems he had after getting hit . He did say he listened to Doctors before returning
Kris Bryant: "I needed to take it seriously and not try to go out there and be Mr. Tough Man and play. You get hit again and you never know what happens. Our training staff and our doctors handled it really well. As frustrating as it can be...it's really the smart thing to do."
Kris Bryant: "It's making sure that I get to see my kids grow up and stuff like that, because any time you're talking about your brain, a lot can go wrong if it happens again. I was just listening to the team doctor."
Kris Bryant declined to say if he suffered a concussion in Colorado: "I'm not going to get into any of that. I'm not a doctor. I'm a baseball player."
And the rotation has finally started pulling their wait. 27IP, 0 ER in the Brewers series. Basically every pitcher had their best start this last time through the rotation. Kinda hid the fact the Cubs only scored 9 runs in the 4 games. Cubs have already shut out the Brewers 5 times this year, that's ridiculous.
Here's hoping yesterday's good day for Russell was the start of him hitting better. Rizzo isn't showing a whole lot of signs right now, but I'm more confident in him.
Elias: Cubs' 5 shutouts of Brewers in April marks 3rd time in MLB history that a team has blanked an opponent 5 times in a calendar month. Last team was Washington Senators vs. Cleveland Naps in August of 1910
44. McCoy
Posted: April 30, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5662991)
Maddon: as long as Almora Jr., Baez get on base with regularity for Bryant, Rizzo, etc., they can stay 1-2 “as long as they want to.”
Almora is only hitting .250/.314/.313 his last 8 games, so I think the really great start has sort of masked his struggles lately. That's not horrible, and it's cherry picked (starts the day after his big 4 hit game in the Rockies blowout), but most of it came during his big hitting streak that was getting plenty of attention.
He's playing a bit more against RHP too, but the splits aren't pretty - .255/.296/.294 vs RHP but .381/.458/.762 vs LHP (all but 2 of his Ks are against RHP). His defense more than makes up for it, and at the risk of worrying too much about batting order, he probably shouldn't be at leadoff against righties.
46. bfan
Posted: April 30, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5663147)
Basically every pitcher had their best start this last time through the rotation.
was there someone missing from the Brewers line-up of any merit? They scored 2 runs in 4 games, which is pretty awful.
Thames is on the DL. He wouldn't have started against Quintana, but could have the other 3. Yelich missed the first Cubs/Brewers series. Then again, the Brewers have scored 0,5,2,0,0,2,0,0 runs in the 8 games against the Cubs this season. For the Cubs, Rizzo missed almost the whole first series and Bryant and Zobrist missed half this series, but neither team was/is significantly undermanned. I guess that 8 game winning streak the Brewers had coming in was buoyed by the wins coming against CIN/MIA/KCR (though they did better against those teams than the Cubs so far).
5 straight games with 3 or fewer runs... but all wins!
First time Cubs have ever done it.
First time any team has done it since Brewers August 13-17, 2011
Christopher Kamka @ckamka 12h12 hours ago
#Cubs this season when scoring 3 or fewer runs
Last 5 games: 5-0
Prior to that: 1-8
Christopher Kamka @ckamka 12h12 hours ago
#Cubs this season:
- 3 games with 12+ runs scored
- one 5-game winning streak with 12 TOTAL runs scored
Also:
On the other side of the ball, Alzolay (2-1) was on cruise control. The right-hander brought a no-hitter into the sixth, when Adalberto Mondesi beat out an infield single to short with one out. The native of Venezuela then induced an inning-ending double play and struck out the side on 11 pitches in his final frame. Alzolay finished with two walks and tied his season-high six punchouts over seven scoreless frames.
"I felt like everything worked together for me. I had all of my pitches going. I was able to pound to the zone by moving my fastball around -- left to right and also up and down -- and mix in my changeup and my breaking ball was perfect," said Alzolay, whose heater sits in the mid-90s but can be ramped up to 98 mph when he reaches back.
"I made my pitch on that hit [from Mondesi], he just got the bat on it and he's really fast. The ball got to the shortstop and he made a good throw to first, but it was too late. That's just baseball. After that, I knew I was on a pitch count. I wanted to be out there for as long as possible, so I just thought, 'Get a double play here and get out of this.' In the seventh, I just went right after guys."
In his Iowa debut on April 20, Alzolay also took a no-hit bid into the sixth against Nashville. That was broken up by a leadoff home run by B.J. Boyd. In that start, he did not return to the mound for the seventh.
I'd like to think Rizzo just had his worst ever month with the Cubs, but I don't know for sure: .149/.259/.189, good for a 25OPS+. His only XBH was the HR on opening day. He's only walked 4 times and struck out 15 - the surest sign he's really struggling and not just unlucky. The 7 HBP are inflating the OBP, but he's always going to get hit a bunch.
Because it feels like it should be noted that we're finally back in 1st place.
“It’s where we belong,” Albert Almora Jr. said after another spectacular night in center field. “We’re just playing Cub baseball right now and we’ve yet to explode-explode the way we can and we’re still in first. It’s where we belong.”
And Epstein, who knows how to paint a picture, reiterated something his manager Joe Maddon told reporters about a possible turning point in the season.
On April 16 and 18, the Cubs and Cardinals were postponed for wintry weather at Wrigley Field, giving the players some time to work in the cages with Davis and his assistant Haines. On April 19, they beat St. Louis 8-5.
“I think that was the day we had a big increase in buy-in and team-wide offensive approach,” Epstein said. “Since then we’ve got to lead the league in opposite field hits.”
He’s right. From April 19 through Monday’s win, the Cubs have 70 hits going to center field or opposite field, the most in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Those hits have resulted in a baseball-high 38 RBIs, an NL-best 151 wRC+ and .363 BABIP.
Take out the center field hits and the Cubs are still tops in baseball with 34 hits, first in the NL with 16 RBIs and a 192 wRC+ and second to the Rockies with a .421 BABIP.
14 runs in the last 7 games. Of course, there's that flukey 5 game winning streak in the middle of that.
Last night was somewhat disappointing because of the weather conditions and the fact the Cubs had just knocked around Gray, but in all honestly Gray was really impressive last night. So was Hendricks, but a lot like Lester last week the close HRs were the difference. Also, it was really just the first 2 batters last night, continuing a trend (2 times makes a trend, right?) where it seems like his control is a little iffy early and then he settles down.
None of those 4 HRs would have gone out this past weekend - the Blackmon one was the best hit but it still just cleared the wall in CF - which is just a thing that happens sometimes, I guess.
But really, the overall numbers on the offense aren’t so bad, there’s just been zero consistency. The Cubs are second in the National League with 4.96 runs per game, but they’ve scored three or fewer runs in 14 of their 27 games played.
In March and April, Rizzo saw 67.7 percent “hard” pitches, according to Pitch Info. That would be the highest percentage of those pitches — four-seamers, two-seamers and cutters — he’s ever seen in a single month in his career. From 2014-2017, Rizzo hit .263 with a .523 slugging on four-seamers, .331 with a .632 slugging against two-seamers and .331 with a .478 slugging against cutters. Those numbers are down to .143 and .250 off four-seamers, .250 and .250 against two-seamers and .167 and .167 off cutters. He’s supposed to mash hard pitches and he’s just not doing it.
But really, the overall numbers on the offense aren’t so bad, there’s just been zero consistency. The Cubs are second in the National League with 4.96 runs per game, but they’ve scored three or fewer runs in 14 of their 27 games played.
My guess is that an offense built like the Cubs - lots of HRs, a couple guys who will walk a ton but also a couple who avoid ball four like the plague, plus all the high K guys - is always going to show such inconsistency. What they really lack are a couple of high contact 280 hitters - i.e., a TLS-type starter -- who can always be counted on to put the ball in play. Maybe Almora can turn into that.
I think this is one of the reasons Joe loves lineup tinkering - to get the most out of such an offense, you really need to lean on hot guys and try to hide guys struggling.
My guess is that an offense built like the Cubs - lots of HRs, a couple guys who will walk a ton but also a couple who avoid ball four like the plague, plus all the high K guys - is always going to show such inconsistency.
Oddly enough, the Cubs are currently 11th in the NL in HRs (24th MLB) and 13th in BBs (20th MLB), but 3rd in BA (10th). So while the theory carries a little weight in my mind - especially when talking about last year - it really doesn't explain this year.
What they really lack are a couple of high contact 280 hitters - i.e., a TLS-type starter -- who can always be counted on to put the ball in play. Maybe Almora can turn into that.
It's still early, but we're on pact for a lot more defensive shifts this season than we've ever had before.
Teams driving this number up include:
Royals
Twins
Braves
and others ...
Len Kasper @LenKasper 39m39 minutes ago
Per @StatsBySTATS, @cubs have shifted 27x TOTAL all season, by far fewest in MLB. KC has employed 520, the most. Only 5 teams have shifted fewer than 100x. So industry is zigging & Cubs are zagging. Cubs 5th in MLB in defensive efficiency so it’s working. (Thx @baseball_ref)
I've harped on the defense a bit this year - some of those are just errors, others are dropped balls by Heyward that weren't counted as errors - but even with Happ in CF and Scwharber in LF the defense has still been good.
I have noticed the more extreme shifts this year that Bryant, for one, is facing. Rizzo keeps finding the shift, but he's at the point where he's a finding a glove no matter where it's positioned.
Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs: One thing I understand about Heyward is that his 2018 numbers aren't spectacular. There's no sense in pretending they are. He has been about an average hitter, which, granted, is still a step up from what Heyward was in 2016 and 2017.
But here, Statcast can come in extra handy. By average exit velocity off the bat, Heyward this year has hit the ball as hard as he did back in 2015. And there's a metric out there called expected slugging percentage, which calculates an SLG estimate based on someone's actual batted balls. Heyward in 2016: .348. Heyward in 2017: .392. Heyward in 2018: .515. The strong conclusion here is that Heyward has been hitting the ball just fine in the early going, but he has simply hit into some bad luck. It happens. His hard-hit rate is up. And, for that matter, Heyward has been hitting more balls in the air. It doesn't help him much to put the ball on the ground.
Even when Heyward was struggling, he put the bat on the ball. He drew his walks. His discipline wasn't a problem. It was his swing that might have been overcomplicated. The early results now are very encouraging. Heyward has the results of an average hitter. But he now has the profile of someone even better than that.
There appears to be some push in the media asking if Happ should get sent down, a la Schwarber last year. Joe had to comment on it today, and all the writers must smell blood because it's not just a couple of guys pushing it. Levine goes so far as to say the Cubs are looking for a veteran backup OF, someone like Bourjos.
Dillon Maples just struck out the side in the 9th for the @IowaCubs. Hit 99 mph on the radar gun twice. Maples has now struck out 19 batters in 8.1 innings this season. That's 20.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
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1. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 23, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5658408)2017: 13-11, 92
2016: 17-5, 103
2015: 12-8, 97
2014: 11-16, 77
2013: 12-14, 92
2012: 15-8, 90
2011: 15-12, 91
2010: 17-6, 96
2009: 9-14, 84
2008: 15-12, 97
His K rate is down, sure, but it's not really just "for now" - Almora's always been a pretty decent contact guy. Last year, only Rizzo, Heyward, and Zobrist struck out on a lower percentage of their PAs on the team.
As for the rest, eh. If the starting pitching gets just a little better and the offense gets a little more consistent (not even better, just more consistent), then this is an easy 95-win team. If the starting pitching gets really good and the offense stays the same, they're an easy 95-win team. And if the offense gets a little more consistent and the starting pitching gets really good, they're pretty much invincible. As is, they're probably a little unlucky to be 10-9, but they're still obvious playoff contenders.
I guess my point is, with 19 games under their belts, they seem a lot closer to being an 12-7 type team than 8-11 type team. I feel like it'll work itself out.
####### Denver man.
As for almora, I phrased that poorly. How many of his hits this weekend were bloop shots? That, plus his less than stellar patience would seem to imply that his current hitting may not be sustainable. I'll take the good luck while we can though and do think he can be a decent batting average hitter.
135-106 in Aprils (.562)
919 wins overall. So, I reckon that means a 919-700 record overall*. That's a winning percentage of ..... .568. Essentially identical to the April record. Post-April record: 784-594 (.569).
Not seeing much special about Maddon & April.
*(I know the Cubs had 161 decisions one year under him. I'm too lazy to check them all, so I'll assume 1619 games played over all).
It's not what I would predict but it's possible. Sammy Sosa hit .300/.339/.545 in his age 25 season.
-Schwarber. Like Baez, he was scuffling a bit early on. He’s now up to .293/.414/.552. He’s barely playing against lefties (15 PA) and not hitting them at all (.083/.267/.167). The early caveat always applies, but he’s striking out less and walking more.
I would let him hone his craft a bit more against righties and ease him slowly into facing lefties.
The rotation is the biggest concern right now, but it's early.
Yes folks, it's still April.
His career BABIP is .330, this year he's at .292. His slugging will come down because it's just not sustainable where it is, but some of those hits will still be there - they'll just be singles. Last year in the 2nd half he hit .291/.340/.511. He's changed some as a hitter since last year (as highlighted in that linked article), so I think some of those changes will stick. Working from that 2nd half last year, I bumped up the BA a little, dropped the OBP down (because he still got 8 IBB in the 2nd half, and unless he's hitting 8th he's just not going to get as many IBBs and I'm still not convinced he's going to take more BBs) and then overcorrected on the SLG because anything over .500 felt like wishcasting. Then again, if he slugs around .500 the rest of the year, he'll finish comfortably over that .500 mark.
Yeah, I did a little more with that after posting it. In 6 of those years, the April win% was less than the total for the year, and no, it doesn't show anything. I just saw a number of .500ish Aprils that still turned into 90+ wins.
Agreed. But at some point, he'll have to start seeing some of them more. I just worry about him being too easily removed from a playoff game when a LOOGY comes in.
A couple more notes on him from here:
He's had quite a few loud outs into the shift that would be hits against something played straight up, so it'll be interesting to watch this as the year goes on. From what we've seen so far, teams really shift hard against quite a few of the Cubs hitters. It's always a fun contrast to see that with the Cubs not shifting that much.
Despite my rather eeyore-esque (eeyorian?) proclamations, sure - I think they'll ultimately be fine, too.
It just bothers me that the April schedule was probably their easiest month and I wish they'd have made some early hay.
I think that's a process that should start now, and maybe it is starting. Schwarber still isn't starting against LHP but I think he isn't necessarily going to get pulled when one comes in (on Sunday he faced three different lefty relievers). Four of his 19 PAs against LHP have come in the last two games, where he was left in against a lefty, and he's grounded out twice, walked and struck out -- I'll take not hitting the ball hard over striking out four times.
Let him build a high level of confidence against RHP and slowly let that bleed over to facing LHP. Hopefully by August he's starting every day and chasing a 50 HR season.
I call BS here. See my Maddon quote above. If they decided yesterday he wasn't going to play the next 2 days, I could see not rushing out to say that. I could also see Maddon playing up the possibility of him playing yesterday (though I can't give a good reason why). I mean, I'm just saying I wonder if he does have concussion symptoms and they don't want to talk about it.
EDIT: Here's another Maddon quote from yesterday:
"I think he's fine," manager Joe Maddon had said before Tuesday's game. "He just has to work through some things."
-Baez. My goodness, what a fun ride this is right now. .292/.363/.736. Yes, it’s probably just a hot streak; yes, the OBP is a little inflated by the 4 early IBBs (his last non-IBB BB was 2 weeks ago). What if it’s not just a hot streak though? Is a .300/.330/.500 line for the year that outlandish or unlikely?
I mentioned in a newsstand thread that I am seeing some signs of Sosa 98. Not that I expect 60 HR but just in being a bit more patient. Sosa's K-rate didn't really go down in his peak years but all of us in real time were noting that he was flailing at genuine crappy pitches a lot less often, going the other way more often ... and of course once the HRs started to pile up, pitchers were much more careful with him.
Putting Baez #2 in the order could be huge (assuming Bryant returns). The walks won't come even if the HRs do because nobody wants to put him on in front of Bryant and Rizzo but that also means that if he can lay off most of those really bad pitches, they're going to have to throw him stuff he can hit. There have never been any issues with the quality of Javy's contact. Early yet and in the midst of a super hot streak but his K-rate is down quite a bit so far this year (29% career, 21% this year ... that's the same sort of change we saw Bryant pull off).
-Schwarber. Like Baez, he was scuffling a bit early on. He’s now up to .293/.414/.552. He’s barely playing against lefties (15 PA) and not hitting them at all (.083/.267/.167). The early caveat always applies, but he’s striking out less and walking more.
FWIW, Baez has only 25 PA against LHP so they haven't exactly hidden Schwarber yet. Joe also rarely (ever?) PHs for him against LHR ... unless of course it sets up the inning to bring Heyward to bat against LHP with the game on the line. :-)
-Almora. He’s really taking this opportunity to play everyday and running with it. He still swings at damn near everything, but for now he’s making contact. And if his defense stays like this, he probably should be out there damn near every day.
Yeah, this has been big and the defense has been excellent. Although I don't expect Joe to change his ways (and I'm not sure he should), a prime defensive CF gives him more latitude to sit Heyward's bat.
Nitpick on Joe: When LaStella starts (only 4 times so far), I will never understand why he's not in the lead-off spot. That's exactly the kind of hitter he is. And against RHP (only time LaStella starts unless it's a real emergency), it avoids the 3 RHB at the top (A/B/B). Even last night L/B/R/C/S/R/H/A looks much better and has L-R balance all the way through. Or swap Almora and Heyward or Almora and Russell.
Yeah, this is a good point. Zobrist is similar to LaStella, and Zo obviously isn't Joe's first choice to lead off either, but Zo's done it although only after other guys have tried and failed. If I had to guess, I'd say it's because LaStella is more likely to make contact and Joe would rather have that bat in a spot where they're likely driving in runs. Partly, because hitting with RISP has been such a consistent problem with this team Joe's entire tenure (it's almost all they talked about with the Chili Davis hiring). It's why Zobrist hits 4th or 5th so much, and why LaStella was hitting in between Contreras and Schwarber these 2 DH games in Cleveland when Bryant was out.
FWIW, Baez has only 25 PA against LHP so they haven't exactly hidden Schwarber yet. Joe also rarely (ever?) PHs for him against LHR ... unless of course it sets up the inning to bring Heyward to bat against LHP with the game on the line. :-)
Fair enough. Schwarber has sat against most LHP SP so far (though not all, it seems like more than Heyward has sat). But yes, he's been staying in against the RP.
Is he having vision problems? Headaches? A busted nose? Nightmares? A bruised ego?
Almora
Schwarber
Baez
Rizzo
LaStella
Caratini
Russell
Heyward
Hendricks
Almora
Baez
Rizzo
Contreras
Bote
Happ
Russell
Heyward
Darvish
Not sure why you'd play Heyward against a LHP ahead of Schwarber with Bryant still out, but here we are.
So I'm not crazy to be thinking the Cubs are hiding something about Bryant at this point, right?
Zobrist also supposed to come off the DL tomorrow.
Why is everyone scared to say concussion?
Here's hoping yesterday's good day for Russell was the start of him hitting better. Rizzo isn't showing a whole lot of signs right now, but I'm more confident in him.
Almora is only hitting .250/.314/.313 his last 8 games, so I think the really great start has sort of masked his struggles lately. That's not horrible, and it's cherry picked (starts the day after his big 4 hit game in the Rockies blowout), but most of it came during his big hitting streak that was getting plenty of attention.
He's playing a bit more against RHP too, but the splits aren't pretty - .255/.296/.294 vs RHP but .381/.458/.762 vs LHP (all but 2 of his Ks are against RHP). His defense more than makes up for it, and at the risk of worrying too much about batting order, he probably shouldn't be at leadoff against righties.
was there someone missing from the Brewers line-up of any merit? They scored 2 runs in 4 games, which is pretty awful.
Also:
Because it feels like it should be noted that we're finally back in 1st place.
Because it feels like it should be noted that we're finally back in 1st place.
Rizzo
Bryant
Zobrist
Russell
Schwarber
Caratini
Heyward
Happ
Hendricks
Last night was somewhat disappointing because of the weather conditions and the fact the Cubs had just knocked around Gray, but in all honestly Gray was really impressive last night. So was Hendricks, but a lot like Lester last week the close HRs were the difference. Also, it was really just the first 2 batters last night, continuing a trend (2 times makes a trend, right?) where it seems like his control is a little iffy early and then he settles down.
None of those 4 HRs would have gone out this past weekend - the Blackmon one was the best hit but it still just cleared the wall in CF - which is just a thing that happens sometimes, I guess.
My guess is that an offense built like the Cubs - lots of HRs, a couple guys who will walk a ton but also a couple who avoid ball four like the plague, plus all the high K guys - is always going to show such inconsistency. What they really lack are a couple of high contact 280 hitters - i.e., a TLS-type starter -- who can always be counted on to put the ball in play. Maybe Almora can turn into that.
I think this is one of the reasons Joe loves lineup tinkering - to get the most out of such an offense, you really need to lean on hot guys and try to hide guys struggling.
Oddly enough, the Cubs are currently 11th in the NL in HRs (24th MLB) and 13th in BBs (20th MLB), but 3rd in BA (10th). So while the theory carries a little weight in my mind - especially when talking about last year - it really doesn't explain this year.
What they really lack are a couple of high contact 280 hitters - i.e., a TLS-type starter -- who can always be counted on to put the ball in play. Maybe Almora can turn into that.
You're talking about a healthy Zobrist.
I've harped on the defense a bit this year - some of those are just errors, others are dropped balls by Heyward that weren't counted as errors - but even with Happ in CF and Scwharber in LF the defense has still been good.
I have noticed the more extreme shifts this year that Bryant, for one, is facing. Rizzo keeps finding the shift, but he's at the point where he's a finding a glove no matter where it's positioned.
...
I enjoyed most of the Carlos Marmol experience.
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