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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, December 18, 2017Status of the Roster mid-DecemberFigured it was a good time for a new thread, but it’s also time to take a step back and look at how things stand for the Cubs right now. The Cubs still have some moves to make, though they could field a 25 man roster today if they absolutely had to. Catchers I haven’t seen many rumors linking the Cubs to any backup catcher FAs as of yet. Obviously, Caratini is an option, but as we’ve gone over before it would appear the Cubs are enamoured/comfortable with his defense back there. I’d expect the Cubs to sign some sort of veteran type, but this is far from a priority and I’d guess the Cubs are just waiting for the right time to get someone on the cheap. If they sign someone for more than 1 year (which there isn’t a need to), I’d guess Caratini is on his way out in a trade. Infielders For the purposes of this post, I’m classifying both Happ and Zobrist as OFs, but that could change if there were a trade. I’d expect TLS to stay on the team as the PH extraodinaire, but if someone came calling he’s also quite expendable. Bote is now on the 40 man roster, so that’s at least one other guy that can play SS, but there’s always room for a NRI come spring training. Outfielders If the Cubs don’t make a trade of a position player for a pitcher, I’d expect the 12 hitters are going to be the 11 guys above plus the backup C. Like the IF, there’s room for a NRI or two here. I could also see the argument that TLS is totally replaceable and the Cubs should find another guy who can handle CF defensively. I don’t really have strong feelings there, though at the moment I lean towards TLS and the extra bench bat since Happ and Heyward both can cover in CF (so could Bryant in a pinch). Rotations That TBD is by far the biggest remaining question this offseason. The Cubs have been linked to Cobb forever, but I’ve started seeing that the Cubs aren’t interested in paying him $20mil/yr. That has now led to rumors of the Cubs “kicking the tires” on Darvish. Signing Darvish would make a ton of sense, depending on the deal. It’s pretty hard to predict what’s going to happen in the SP market, but it’s interesting that Chatwood is the biggest SP that’s signed anywhere so far (CC resigned in NY on a 1 year deal; then you had a reliever and a guy from Japan sign). So maybe Darvish is signable on a deal not too much higher than $20mil/yr. Maybe Arrieta’s market is coming back to earth too (though it’s Boras, and his guys usually do wait it out and end up getting paid). The other option is that position player trade, with guys like Archer and Duffy being mentioned - the package would be quite a bit bigger for the former than the latter. Montgomery is the guy that could get plugged in today, though I think everyone besides him would rather get an upgrade. Bullpen The Cubs have a number of guys that are options for those last 2 spots - Alvarez, Maples, Tseng, Mills, Butler, Zastryzny, but all signs seem to point that the Cubs are going to get one more FA. There were some Davis rumblings - again, the closer market hasn’t developed at all, so perhaps there’s a smaller deal option there - but that’s going to depend on what happens with the last SP spot. You’d have to guess the Cubs would want one of those spots to be usable to move guys up and down from Iowa, and almost all of the internal options have options. Predictions, thoughts, opinions? Moses Taylor hashes out the rumpus
Posted: December 18, 2017 at 11:22 AM | 186 comment(s)
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Perhaps Reed's betting this is the year Rodney finally coughs up the closer's role. (This doesn't seem unreasonable, though it feels like we've been waiting for it to happen for around 15 years. Rodney is the Rasputin of relievers.)
But yeah, I would've thought the Cubs would've been more strongly in on Reed, especially since they might've offered him the nominal closer slot. Reed isn't dominant like a Chapman or Davis (v. 2014-16), but he's been durable and solidly above average.
Depends on the role. Maybe. I wish there was an easy way to identify who the "high leverage" relievers are in P-I but I haven't been able to think of one. But, for 2015-17, individual seasons with 20+ saves .... 73 qualifying seasons, the median ERA+ is 156. The list will be biased upwards somewhat since pitchers who started the season as the closer but didn't do well won't have made it to 20 saves and would have been replaced by the hot reliever who maybe made it 20 saves before cooling off. Anyway, that kinda makes Roberto Osuna the "typical" closer of the last 3 years (159, 160, 137). Pretty much everybody above that line is either a top closer or a top set-up guy ... with a few flashes in the pan. The guys below that line are clearly a step down and almost none of them have held the closer role for long (or got hurt).
I guess another way to look at it is to identify guys who've made at least 150 relief appearances over the last 3 years. That produces 98 players with a median ERA+ around 127. The upper quartile is in the upper 140s. That suggests maybe 145 is around where "legit closer" starts. If we chop that list down further to guys with FEWER than 40 saves (basically no more than one season at closer in the last three), there are 75 pitchers and the median ERA+ is 124.
Anyway, like a lot of relievers (including guys on that list), Reed has been up and down. For his career, he's got a 122 ERA+ and 1.16 WHIP -- I suspect that's pretty close to average for "high-leverage 1-inning reliever." He was at 154 in 2017 and 204 in 2016 and those are both very good. But the 250 innings before that were just 102 ERA+. Maybe that's a sign of a guy who's come into his own and is now good enough to go into the elite reliever group. Reed is 7th on that last list I looked at because of those last two seasons. (Strop is 16th by the way.) He jumps to 3rd by FIP (Strop 13th). So he does seem like he's probably as good a bet as any reliever outside the top 10-20.
Jared Hughes -- go figure. Apparently still used in lower-leverage situations, but he's been a pretty nice reliever the last three years. In terms of results at least, lousy FIP.
Considering the state of the farm I don't think the Cubs should plan around the ability to make any impactful midseason acquisitions.
And I too thought the Cubs would be in on Reed. Without any further acquisitions the 2018 bullpen is worse on paper than the 2017 version.
Yeah - the prospect lists are also NOT being kind to the Cubs (not that anyone expected otherwise). They'd have a rough time crafting a package to get a backend rental... salary cast-offs aside.
I agree that the bullpen looks even worse than last year, but I'm not terribly concerned about that - so much variance and who knows that, well, who knows...
It really feels like the Cubs are placing a risky upside bet on the pitching.... Hendricks getting back to 2016 form. Lester bouncing back. Chatwood hitting high end expectations. Enough of the live arms in the pen staying healthy and learning to throw strikes. Certainly not impossible SOME of those things happen, but feels like a bad bet to essentially trust all or most of them to happen.
Could be a rocky year... though, they've still got a good defense behind the questionable pitching and I feel like the offense ought to be able to play with anyone.
I agree that the bullpen looks even worse than last year, but I'm not terribly concerned about that - so much variance and who knows that, well, who knows...
It's a product of the 2016 team being so good (and it's kind of illogical) but it's depressing to watch a net outflow of talent the last couple of offseasons. The Cubs may yet surprise me by doing something bold but I've resigned myself to Alex Cobb and the 2018 Cubs being spreadsheetedly weaker in both the rotation and the bullpen. They still project to be one of the best 3 teams in the NL (which is really really good). And yet.
As hard as bullpens are to predict, I don't see any reason to really assume the bullpen will be worse, at least compared to what we thought going into last season. Davis was a bit of a question mark coming off his injury, we really had no idea what to expect out of Rondon or Strop due to their injuries/ineffectiveness late, I think we had high hopes for Edwards, Duensing was panned/dismissed, and Montgomery was support to be ok. They were good in the first half, and then terrible in the 2nd half/playoffs. I'd guess/predict the pen as currently constructed is better than that 2nd half/playoff group but a little less certainty at the end without Davis, but won't be as good as the first half pen. I see some potential to be pretty good, but outside of the Yankees pen what bullpen would you say with any confidence is going to be good?
That's all speculation, but if he can be signed for that deal, holy hell jump all over it already.
Really nothing more, but iirc Mooney usually is pretty vague, though accurate, when talking about rumors like this.
I approve.
I've assumed as much with how Joe used Chapman/Davis during the regular season vs playoffs, but sounds like almost an official organizational philosophy.
Edit: rumors are they're also trying to sign Cain. Interesting.
If that's enough to overcome the Cubs giving a minor league deal to catcher Darvish likes, well, what more could the Cubs do?
Clear precedent indicates that they could sign the catcher Darvish likes to a two-year major league deal, promise to keep playing him when he hits .180, and turn him into a cult hero who gets multiple standing ovations, a book deal and network TV appearances upon retirement.
Darvish -- surely that deal (esp the 5/$100 one) would have an opt-out. I can see that he might have to settle for Cueto's contract but hard to see it being worse than that.
On pitcher health, the Cubs have had an excellent run, even among relievers. We've had some shorter-term injuries over the last few years but I don't think there's been a major (ML) pitcher injury in Theo's tenure. Maybe Randy Wells? (I don't recall if that was injury or suckitude.)
By the way, looking at the Cubs franchise pitchers' page, it lists the top 5 starters, closer and 3 relievers by "years". Lee Smith is the closer of course, Charlie Root is both our #1 SP and our #1 non-closer. Then Willie Hernandez (OK) and then ... James Russell! He did pitch in parts of 6 seasons. Strop will tie him this year and I don't know what the tiebreaker is but Strop would be less embarrassing as our #3 all-time set-up man.
Ah-HA!
/Costanza
Who was it that was giving me the business over my defense of Russell in another thread... Moses? Face?
I'd tend to agree, but do wonder what types of things the Cubs monitor internally that we'll never see that makes them think that way.
Heyman:
That Heyman tweet is actually another link to the article of his I quoted in 114.
Brewers inked Matt Albers to a 2/5 deal -- he was outstanding with the Nats last year, but at age 35 - not sure he's a good bet to repeat his career year.
Mainly, I'm just interested in it because it adds another 2.5 mil to the Brewers payroll and with them going all-in, I'm hoping to see Darvish/Arrieta priced out of their range.
Hey hey hey!!
Seriously, he only stands out from the Parade of Faceless Relievers because I remember him pitching for the Nats last year and he is...not svelte. I'm sorry, a guy named Matt Albers being overweight is just making it too damn easy.
LA Times Andy McCullough reports that Darvish would prefer to return to the Dodgers, but LA needs to move money to make it happen. Good luck on getting some to take Kemp off their hands -- other pieces mentioned being shopped are Grandal, Forsythe, and Ryu... None sure who or why anyone would be interested in Forsythe. I'd think Grandal would be movable, but can't think of anyone really pining for a catcher.
Hell, if they'll take peanuts -- maybe the Cubs ought to just give Darvish an ultimatum and if he declines, give the Dodgers peanuts for Ryu.
I would be down with that but I suspect it's going to cost more than peanuts to pry Ryu away from them.
That's a really good deal. Probably gets more PT in AZ than he would have here, but I would have signed him to that in a heartbeat.
That's an awful lot of money for a backup C, I think... especially when you've got a perfectly serviceable one waiting for Joe to get over him eating Joe's dog or whatever.
In a world where Contreras looks like a budding star - if he isn't already - backup catcher is just one area where I'm not really looking to spend much. I suppose if the Cubs are comfortable enough Schwarber as a legitimate 3rd catcher -- meaning, Avila is a regularly available bat off the bench on days he doesn't catch... maybe.
How much did the Cubs give Ross a couple years ago, 2/$5mil? Sure, it's a luxury, but the Cubs aren't pinching pennies here. He surely would get enough ABs here to justify that cost (and it would allow the Cubs to be more comfortable giving Willson more rest) and it's perfectly fine to spend a little more on those luxuries when you expect to be good like this.
I'm also ready to be over the Caratini grumbling or whatever. I think enough's out there to understand why the Cubs weren't interested in playing him more last year. If Gimenez wins the backup job over him, I don't see a reason to doubt the decision making process. In a pretty shallow system, no one is ranking him as a real prospect, and it's not like a Dusty situation where it's clear Joe has an anti-kid fetish or whatever.
EDIT: I should add, the better argument against this might be that Avila just isn't projected to be that good (though still better than either Caratini or Gimenez).
True - but at the time, they were pairing Ross with a clearly declining Miggy Monty (though I think Ross was signed before the Montero trade, no? Regardless - if he was, it only makes it more worthwhile to sign a backup C who isn't awful). That, plus I assume Ross was always something of a Lester lure.
I guess I'm just saying with Contreras, my calculus changes. I.e., as you say - it's real just "rest" I'm interested in. I don't want to overspend on "rest".
I'm actually over the Caratini grumbling too... well, maybe not over it - just "it is what it is".
I'm just saying that I'm fine with Giminez, too (even if I prefer Vic). I.e., ultimately - take that ~10 mil and add it the Darvish offer or whatever.
Isn't this a return engagement?
Or am I confusing him with another long ago prospect who never learned to hit...
EDIT: I am - I was thinking of Julio Borbon.
Poor Quentin Berry... gone and forgotten!
Actually, I suppose I'm kind of underselling Bourjos by comparing him with Borbon (and about half a dozen guys who fit that same billing).
A bbref refresher shaking the dust off now reminds me that Bourjos actually did have a few seasons - one in particular - where he hit well, quite well, now that I remember he is (was?) a very nifty CF glove. Unfortunately for him, it would appear he's forgotten everything he knew in 2011. Looks like his glove has slid a bit, too.
Talking depth at Iowa probably shows just how slow this offseason is moving, I guess. That said - and I'm not necessarily in favor of this - I suppose that if there IS a trade to be made, and one is not an Almora believer.... Bourjos is a decent enough glove-first backup OF.
Castillo was also still on the team too, though obviously not for long.
Somehow I don't think Avila's rather small salary is the difference between getting Darvish or not.
Most years, I'd agree with you... but this year, it seems like another 10 mil might well be enough to get a guy to just say "fine, #### it already. I'll sign".
I.e., no idea where the market is right now - and we all got nothing but rumors about whether anyone is blinking on going past 5 years.... but just for the sake of argument, let's say the best offer 5/120. Does 5/130 reach the point of "fine, I'm tired of haggling"?
I think I'm fine with 5/$130mil for him, but multiple Avilas (Avilii?) have no impact on that deal.
---
Montero to the Nats on a minor league deal.
OK, FTR - I'm only arguing with you because continually refreshing rotoworld for SP news gets boring and this something different to do :-) - but I'm just saying that ultimately, resources ARE finite, regardless of what team you are. Setting aside where that finite line lies...
We're talking about a backup catcher... on a team that starts a really good catcher.
Hey - sure - in a perfect world, Avila in the backup catcher, Ben Zobrist is your super-utility, maybe Jarrod Dyson is your 4th OF, and IDK - maybe you toss 10 mil at Carlos Gonzalez to PH and step in if someone in the OF goes down.
Alls I'm saying is that probably the best backup catcher in the world - good enough that he's at least nominal starter/platoon mate - is not something I'm really interested in spending my finite resources on at this point.
Again, let me stress for the record -- hang on,...refresh... still nothing -- I'm only arguing because it's !@#!@#!@#!@ February 1st, pitchers and catchers certainly have their plane tickets in hand (woo-hoo!), and my OCD needs something else to occupy my time while I wait to decide whether I laud or curse Thed based on what the penciled rotation looks like in 2-3 weeks.
Hey - sure - in a perfect world, Avila in the backup catcher, Ben Zobrist is your super-utility, maybe Jarrod Dyson is your 4th OF, and IDK - maybe you toss 10 mil at Carlos Gonzalez to PH and step in if someone in the OF goes down.
Sure, that hypothetical would be ridiculous - and not just cause CarGo is probably completely washed up - but think of it this way instead: the Cubs would be paying under $5mil total for the best catching tandem in baseball.
There's a time to be concerned about the finite resources, and there's a time when it doesn't matter. I think when the Cubs are $35mil short of the tax line - which they very easily can afford - with maybe 2 roster spots open, being worried about less than $5mil is a bit misguided. Hell, don't forget the Cubs paid Koji $6mil last year for 40 slightly above average mid-leverage innings. Pocket change, bro.
The Brewers offer better be stupid if they're outbidding the Cubs.
Heh - well, then we get into definitions of stupid... and the line just might be pocket change.
I mean, hey - if the Brewers are throwing 30 AAV at him... well... good luck with that.
I think my stupid over/under is probably around 25 mil.
Cobb for 4/60
Jake for 5/110
Darvish for 6/120
Cobb's K rate is well below his peak and gives him the feel of a time bomb, IMO. I don't think he's the same pitcher as he was back in 2013/2014 when he was at his best.
Darvish's worst season is still very good (excepting the year he missed to TJ).
Obviously there are no sure things with pitchers but I consider Darvish much, much less likely than the other two to go Edwin Jackson.
4/5 of the rotation is set (and I'm on record many times over in being a Chatwood believer), so one perspective is that it's really a 5th starter we're after - so go with the cheapest, shortest option (Cobb). Then, I think "yeah - but it's 4/5 with a true stud of ace... it's three #2s and a Chatwood who could be anything"... which moves me up the ladder... but THEN I argue with myself and say "so? Darvish and Jake aren't necessarily shutdown aces, either".... THEN I go back and say "yeah, but if there's not a clear #1 to be had - better to have four #2s".
I lean Darvish... but that may change a post or two from now.
That Darish deal is quite a bit better than the Jake one though. I'm going to say the Darvish one is my choice.
Yeah, I hear you on this, but didn't it pick up quite a bit in the second half? I was giving him some credit for upward trajectory after TJ recovery. Could be wrong.
Eh, I had that last Saturday, and it was unpleasant.
He had a fantastic August, September and October, striking out 9.4 per 9 innings in August and 8.6 in September/October. But that was in only 16 1/3 innings in August and 22 innings in September/October. It was a run of 7 excellent starts to finish the year. However, His K/9 month by month was:
April/March 6.5May 6.4
June 5.8
July 4.5
August 9.4
Sept/Oct 8.6
I'm leery of hanging my hat on his strong finish
Cobb went to the DL with turf toe in early August. He made a start August 5, and didn't make his next one until August 24th. After he came back he averaged fewer than 5 1/3 innings over his final 5 starts. I'm not sure what to conclude from all that but there you go.
No turf parks in the NL, so just don't let him pitch at TB or Tor. Problem solved.
I thought this was the supposed to be "the week?!?!"
Sigh.
Preorders to OOTP19 just started... Would you all like to hear about my OOTP18 final sendoff recreation of the 2016-2017 Cubs is going? I always make a habit of trying to squeeze in one last ~5 year run before sending OOTP $30 in what amounts to a roster update and new starting year.
I just started June - sitting pretty atop just the NLC (by 8 games), but at 33-15, I've also got the best record in baseball. Jason Heyward is hitting 339/401/513. Javier Baez leads the team with 13 HRs - despite missing two weeks with a bad hamstring. I've added - through various moves - Ichiro!, Clay Bucholtz, Yovanni Gallardo, Brad Peacok, Nori Aoki, and Jesse Chavez to the mix. John Lackey, Hector Rondon, Justin Grimm, Montero, Brett Anderson, and assorted chaff have left town.
I just finished sweeping the Cardinals at Busch (as happened IRL) to start June. However, unlike IRL - those back-to-back 3 game sweeps in LA an SD went the other way. I took two of three in each - highlighted by one of the best games I've ever managed - Kyle Hendricks came off the DL and outdueled Kershaw. Kershaw threw 8 innings of 5 hit, no walk, 15 K, 1 run ball. Hendricks matched him with 5 hit, no walk, 10 K one-run ball for 9 innings (hey - he started the 9th at 89 pitches. And pitched a quick 1-2-3 9th. So save your PAP). Kyle Schwarber led off the top of the 10th with a PH HR off Jansen. Wade Davis (who I extended for one more year) locked it down.
EDIT: Oh yeah - I should also note... screw you, haters! I grabbed Arismendy Alcantara off waivers from the Reds and he's having a really nice year as my new super utility guy.
I'll take the over on Bryant (I've been saying without a ton of confidence that one of these years Bryant is going to put everything together and spit out a monster season - might as well be this year), Contreras, and Russell (well, that's more hope than anything). I'll take the under on Heyward, Zobrist, and Caratini (ZIPS really likes him).
ZIPS likes the bullpen - and to a lesser extent the rotation - more than I do.
He also predicts Cobb to Mil for 4/$65mil.
Cobb at 4/$60 is probably the best value (or best mix of value and limited risk) but I'm not sure what I do with the extra money. Also would need to decide how serious I am about making a run at Harper next year and whether I really have a shot -- in which case, that's where the extra money goes. Maybe if we'd grabbed Cobb at 4/$60 (not that he'd take it necessarily), we'd have grabbed Avila or Dyson or other nice bench piece.
he has been seeking something closer to the Stephen Strasburg deal of $175 million for seven.
This is one of the craziest contract structures out there ...
$10 M signing bonus deferred to 2019
2017: $15
2018: $15
2019: $35 ... but with $30 deferred but with that $10 M bonus added in
2020: $25 ... with $10 deferred
2021: $15
2022: $15
2023: $45 ... $30 deferred
The $70 deferred is paid out at $10 M per year for 2024-2030. There is also a bonus of $1 M in each year he pitches at least 180 innings. Cots claims that a NPV of $162. But a real NPV calculator says that at 7%, that's $114 NPV. Whack it down to 5% and it's still just $128. If Darvish take that deal, sign him. If you're offering 4/$100 then getting an extra 3 years for $14-28 M seems a no-brainer.
He has opt outs after 2019 (with the $30 deferred paid out over 2020-22) and 2020 (with the $40 deferred paid out over 2021-24). Those work out to a deferred 3/$75 or a deferred 4/$100. If the Cubs are already offering an un-deferred 4/$100 (that's not clear) then they probably won't panic if he took the opt out.
Of course I suspect the reporter or his source didn't look up Strasburg's contract and are saying that Darvish wants 7/$175 M un-deferred (so do I!).
And long ago Zonk utility-crush Ryan Flaherty has signed a minor league deal with an NRI with the Phillies. Ryan Flaherty is 31. That makes me feel oddly young and oddly old at the same time.
It's weird how many top comps have a Cubs connection:
Bryant Santo
Contreras Soto (oh-oh)
Happ Chili Davis
Yasiel Balagert (way down the list) Bryan LaHair
Wilson Ohman
Strop Wendell
Daury Torrez Donnie Moore
Jen-Ho Tseng Sergio Mitre
Grimm Wellemeyer
Parra Knowles (really?)
I know, probabilistically it's probably not as strange as it seems.
I kind of feel like I've got a little ahead of myself in thinking Darvish is such an obviously and significantly better play than Jake - I mean, I think he is, but the long slog of waiting feels like it's obscured the reality a bit.
So, sure... I think that if Jake wants to come back for one more year - I probably do that instead. Olney doesn't reference a price tag - but I cannot imagine it's more than what... 1/25? Maybe 1/30?
Even at 1/30, I think I'd probably go for that.
Sounds like a good deal.
I'm not concerned about the terrible WS start he made -- seems like that was a matter of good hitters hitting a good pitcher. He's a fly ball pitcher but strikes out enough batters that it might not matter. He has a decent walk rate so hopefully he won't catch the Cubs walk virus.
FG puts Cubs and Dodgers both at 94 wins; PETCOA I don't think is updated yet for this signing but had the Dodgers 10 games ahead beforehand (99 to 89).
I think there's a case to be made for either team, and a lot depends on how you think guys coming off career years on LAD will do (Taylor, Turner, Bellinger specifically) vs. the Cubs underachievers from last year (Schwarber, Russell, Lester). My tinted glasses don't see those 3 from LA repeating those years while I'd expect at least those 3 on the Cubs to be better than last year. The Dodgers have more depth in the rotation, but outside Kershaw, I wouldn't take another of LA's starters ahead of the Cubs top 4. I think the Dodgers have shown a better ability to get the most out of their pen, plus Jansen's clearly ahead of anyone we have, but I do like the arms/options in our pen. I like the Cubs hitting and defense over LA's, maybe even by a lot depending how the breakouts/bouncebacks go. LA has more potential help on the farm (either in promotions or trade fodder), though the Cubs still have more space under the tax (and less incentive than LA to stay there this year as the Cubs didn't pay in last season). If there's anything to be said for recovery from last year, the Cubs might have a small advantage there not having played the extra 7+ games (I don't put a whole lot into that, no matter how much the Cubs talked about it last year).
tl, dr; it's damn close, with the Nats really not far behind. I guess the race is to be the team not to have to face the other one in the NLDS this year. I do say it'll be a surprise (on same level, allowing for injuries to hurt any of them) if any of those 3 aren't in the playoffs.
Right now my gut feeling for the Cubs is 91 or 92 wins, based on the current roster. However, there is a lot of room for this team to grow. Guys they might be thinking about picking up on the FA market in 2018-19 could show up on the roster in late July. And of course, deals could be made between now and April.
They have a full year of Quintana, instead of a half-year
Tyler Chatwood replaces John Lackey. That seems like an upgrade
Yu Darvish replaces Jake Arrieta. Seems mostly like a lateral move in terms of talent. I like Darvish moving forward, but Arrieta had a decent year, given his strong second half. (Well, strong until his injury).
Jon Lester returns. Hopefully a bounce back season.
Kyle Hendricks returns. Still a really good pitcher. Should avoid a weird finger injury like he had last year that cost him a month-plus of games.
In all, the starting rotation looks a bit better. Not dramatically so, but better. Health is always the wild card.
Chatwood is really replacing Bret Anderson, et al. now that Darvish is in the fold and theoretically bumping him down to the 5th starter spot.
EDIT: And I feel really, really good about the starting rotation now.
Oh, I think I'd go as far as dramatically better.
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