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The Cubs have the worst road record in the NL right now (barely below Miami) - and the 2nd best home record.
Re: Post #1:
After yesterday's game, the Cubs are now 4-2 in road game blowouts and 4-18 in road games that aren't blow outs over the last 10 weeks.
So, if I counted right, the Cubs went 12-11 in their first 23 road games (so up through the Nats series). They went 7-3 in blowouts, and 5-8 in non-blowouts. That seems like a normal, or reasonable, distribution (maybe still a little worse than you'd expect for a team that is playing .667 ball at home.
Nightengale (I know) says this:
A couple of people have said the Cubs might be shopping Maldonado, which makes more sense than trading for him in the first place.
So I guess it depends on what the Royals want. The Cubs certainly can't offer anything resembling elite prospects.
Giolito was the #3 overall prospect and Lopez #38. Eaton had 5 years of controls left at $38.4mil and was coming off a 6.1 WAR season (preceded by 4.0 and 5.3. He was younger than Whit now, having just finished his age 27 season. Merrifield is obviously older (30 this year), and doesn't have as long of a history of success (2.9WAR so far this year, 5.5 last year and 3.9 the year before) but only costs $26mil total for this year + the next 4*. Merrifield is the more versatile defender; at the time of the trade Eaton had played some CF but was only seen as ok there but a plus in RF. Market has changed a bunch since then, but I'd still think the Royals would at least think about that deal as a comp. If that's the case, there's no way the Cubs can meet it unless the Royals are very high on a couple specific guys. I'd reckon they'd ask - if they'd even take the call - for *at least* Happ, Alzolay, Amaya and something else (like a high upside guy, maybe Marquez. Maybe the Royals would prefer more ML ready guys, but I still don't see them matching up great with the Cubs, unfortunately. I'm not sure how much Schwarber or Russell would really interest them considering cost, and they'd have to be really high on Almora/Happ to count them as a major piece. Happ/Alzolay/Amaya probably wouldn't cut it.
*Oddly enough, his salary decreases to $2.75mil in 2022 (when he's 33) and jumps to $10.5mil in 2023(34); so I do expect the Royals will trade him at some point during this deal
EDIT: And indeed has been one since 2012, although only 8.2 innings in 2017 and none in 2018, so I'm gonna guess Tommy John in there. Looks like the Platonic form of the Decent, Totally Anonymous Reliever. Had a nice year with the Marlins in 2016.
He's definitely a Baseball 2019 player, that's for sure.
I don't think it is realistic. The Royals want prospects and the Cubs don't have many of them. And the Cubs aren't the only team that could use him.
I don't think it is realistic. The Royals want prospects and the Cubs don't have many of them. And the Cubs aren't the only team that could use him.
That's my feeling as well.
OTOH, the Cubs have a plethora of non-stars who can hang in the majors but are still young and cost controlled. And if any team would tend to overvalue those players its one which has lots of limeup holes to fill and wants to avoid a hard rebuild. That would sound like KC.
Not to bring my bad mojo from the old thread over here -- but I need to point out that though he wasn't a first-rounder, Thomas Hatch was the Cubs top pick in the 2016 draft (they didn't draft till the third round due to the Heyward and Zobrist signings).
He's unlikely to be missed -- decent college arm from a good program, but he's repeating AA and doesn't look likely to do much beyond eventually tread water beyond it. His BB rates are too middling, his K rates are poor, and he gives up too many HRs. His main value is that he's got another year before he risks exposure in the rule 5.... not that anyone is particularly licking their chops over him.
Or something like that. There's a bad pun in there somewhere.
David Phelps, Ken Phelps, Digger Phelps - I don't care. Anyone but Strop at this point.
Digger Phelps: The only man to lead Wrigley in Take Me Out to the Ball Game each year since Harry Caray died.
as does his mother and his wife.
I think I like this.
I think you should.
Bote/Happ/Descalso/Garcia/Zobrist (in Sept.)/Kemp/Merrifield
He's an old "utility" guy who can only play one position competently and can't hit. He's about as useless as it gets. Think "TLS minus the bat."
Nice. There's some decent platoon options with this roster. If Descalso stays away or just is better when healthy, the bench might actually be ok again.
Although I said this should happen for him, this still bums me out a bit.
....
Underwood down, Phelps active. Kemp also active tonight.
So generous. Cubs saved money in the Montgomery/Maldanado/Kemp series of moves. Phelps is also really cheap.
Speaking of Montgomery, the early returns on him in KC are not great. So the Cubs' effectively turning him into Kemp seems like a decent deal, even if he seems like a piece that the Cubs don't need or have much use for ... terrible batting average, good patience, a homer now and again, decent defense in LF. Seems redundant when Schwarber's already here.
Wieck seems like a guy who could be useful if he stops giving up more homers than Hendricks gives up walks.
I'm not super excited about Castellanos. I'm not convinced that he makes them much better when all is said and done. He's a respectable bat but not great - his 110 career OPS+ is a dead match with Schwarber - and he's awful defensively. I mean, outside of last year, Castellanos doesn't look much better than Almora in terms of bWAR - basically a 1.5 WAR/yr guy (notwithstanding Almora hitting the tank this year). And even in his best year last year, he only put up 2.9 bWAR, which even if he plays at that level for the Cubs is hardly a difference maker over 2 months.
So, lots of activity today and there's a bit more versatility on the roster and perhaps slightly higher upside. But overall I'm not sure there's much net benefit.
3 games - all starts - for a total of 11.1 IP. Ouch.
Edit: oh, already forgot about Kemp
Castenallos RF
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Schwarber
Kemp
Lester
The OF defense is not a strength. Lester isn't a FB pitcher though.
I'm not super excited about Castellanos. I'm not convinced that he makes them much better when all is said and done. He's a respectable bat but not great - his 110 career OPS+ is a dead match with Schwarber - and he's awful defensively. I mean, outside of last year, Castellanos doesn't look much better than Almora in terms of bWAR - basically a 1.5 WAR/yr guy (notwithstanding Almora hitting the tank this year). And even in his best year last year, he only put up 2.9 bWAR, which even if he plays at that level for the Cubs is hardly a difference maker over 2 months.
Well, considering the offense the Cubs have been getting out of CF this year (.244/.307/.378) and 2b (.217/.297/.378), his bat is replacing essentially one of them so it's a low bar for him to clear. He makes a big difference against LHP (.347/.415/.611 vs the Cubs as a team are at .235/.319/.423), which is where the Cubs are pretty susceptible (guys like Almora/Bote being bad against them this year, not to mention Schwarber/Heyward splits). Of course, he's going to be playing most days, so it's just hoping his offense gain makes up for the defensive dropoff. No, he's not a significant difference maker, but with the holes the Cubs have he still helps. Hopefully, Kemp is closer to last year than this, otherwise 2b is still a huge hole.
I'm not entirely sure what to make of this - and one can definitely make too much of it- but this Twitter thread has a couple of spray charts of Castellanos' hits (total and just home) overlaid onto Wrigley Field. And if this is to be believed, he could see a big jump in his home runs (he hits a lot of fly balls to straightaway and nearly straightaway CF where fly balls go to die at Comerica Park).
Fair enough, but at least some of this (if not most of it) is already accounted for in park factors, which are in turn accounted for in OPS+, right?
Well, yeah, this is my point.
Bottom line is that Castellanos overall is a 1.5-2 WAR per year player, which barely meets the standard of cromulence. Granted, most of his playing time will come from Almora, who is doing worse than that this year (although who has been roughly that in the past).
But here's fun fact - Castellanos has actually been out-WAR'd this year by ... David Bote (1.3 to 1.2) despite Bote having considerably less playing time. Less playing time for Almora is one thing. But if playing him means less time for Bote (because Bryant plays less in the OF), then that's probably a net downgrade.
At any rate, one place where I definitely disagree with you is that they need to keep Almora on the active roster as a defensive replacement, where he should enter basically every time they have a lead past the 6th inning.
Along those lines, one factor in the Cubs' favor here is that Maddon is pretty good about playing to the strengths and weaknesses of his roster. So keeping some offensive/defensive flexibility is really important, I think. I'm not sure I wouldn't rather have Russell than Kemp, to be honest.
You address this to some extent a couple paragraphs later anyway, but the question isn't so much whose playing time Castellanos gets; it's when he gets it. The Cubs' primary starters in both OF corners right now are left-handed. Castellanos has posted an .868 OPS against LHP in his career, and over 1.000 in both 2018 and 2019. Schwarber is at .621 for his career, and just over .650 in the last two years. Heyward is at .652 for his career, and around there for 2018-19 combined (just under .600 this year, just over .700 last year). With Castellanos on board, the Cubs can credibly bench both Heyward and Schwarber against a lefty if they want to (Bote 3B, Bryant RF, Castellanos LF, Almora CF). (Looking way too far ahead, both the Dodgers and Braves have two lefties in their likely playoff rotations). If he doesn't start against right-handers, he's available to hit for Schwarber and Heyward if they get LOOGY'd late in the game.
As you noted, Maddon is pretty good at getting utility out of his role players; Castellanos gives him more options in that regard.
Heyward and Schwarber both significantly outhit Castellanos against right-handers, so I wouldn't play him over either of them. Almora hits worse against RHP, so there's the option to run Schwarber/Heyward/Castellanos if you have a ground ball pitcher on the mound or otherwise feel like OF defense isn't a priority in a particular game. (Of course, there's always Happ against right-handers as well; LHB is his stronger side.)
Maddon's lineups generally haven't involved very many set configurations for most of his time here; the only players who've started 75% of the team's games at a particular position this year have been Baez, Rizzo, and Schwarber. (Last year, it was only Rizzo and -gulp- Contreras; in 2017 it was Rizzo and Bryant, in 2016 Rizzo and Russell.) If Castellanos in RF is an everyday occurrence for the next two months, I'll be surprised.
Overall, yes, it's a small upgrade; I'm given to understand that the Cubs didn't have the chips to get a big one at the moment. This one at least fills a particular need, especially if Castellanos is deployed well.
Where have you gone, Glenallen Hill*? Cubs nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
*acquired by the Cubs via July waiver claim in 1998 and proceeded to post a 154 OPS+ over the rest of the season
He's the only reason they weren't no-hit today.
That's a pretty pitiful series by the offense. What - three runs in three games? But at least they weren't swept! No, just yet another road series that they lost.
---
The Cubs are now 21-33 on the road, after starting the year 12-11. They're 18 above .500 at home and 12 below on the road. That's really ####### hard to do and impossible to understand.
1t. 1996 COL: .679 Home/.346 Road (.333 Dif)
1t. 1987 MIN: .691/.358 (.333 Dif)
3. 1978 HOU: .617/.296 (.321 Dif)
4t. 2003 COL: .605/.309 (.296 Dif)
4t. 2014 COL: .556/.259 (.296 Dif - it's all rounding: both 2003 and 2014 COL won 24 more home games than road games while playing 162 games each year)
4t. 1996 FLA: .642/.346 (.296 Dif)
7t. 1990 HOU: .605/.321 (.284 Dif)
7t. 2010 DET: .642/.358 (.284 Dif)
7t. 2010 PIT: .494/.210 (.284 Dif)
7t. 1987 BOX: .625/.341 (.284 Dif)
Those are the only ones I can find with more extreme differences from this year's Cubs. So it's rare - but it can happen!
Only the 1996 Rockies & 1987 Twins had winning records. 2010 Tigers were .500 and the 1996 Marlins just under. Just off the list is the 1982 Royals, who went 90-72 (56-25 / 34-47)
Most obvious theme? 3 ROckies teams. Maybe there's a similar effect from the opposite direction with the 1978 Astros. The 1980s filled-up Metrodome was known for giving the Twins a big boost.
Yes, it always help when you have the air-conditioners blowing at gale force in from the outfield when your team is pitching.
Castellanos
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Schwarber
Contreras
Bote
Quintana
against RHP. If Happ is going to be up, he should be playing more...
I have no numbers to back it up, but it seems like they've struggled to find a consistent guy for that slot since then. Zobrist is the exception, but of course, he's spent parts of the last couple seasons either being a corpse or injured. I don't know. I'm willing to see how Heyward shakes out in the spot, since he's hit better this season, but even then, he just seems like a "he might be the best we can do" option for that spot.
I guess I'm just trying to pinpoint how this lineup can be so mediocre or outright bad at times given the talent of the guys in it.
Not having a leadoff hitter hurts, but that's just one factor.
The biggest loss caused by Fowler isn't the leadoff slot, it's CF production. Albert Almora was iffy early on, but has regressed. Ian Happ had a nice start in 2018, but really regressed.
Speaking of regressing, there's really nothing much to say about Addison Russell. His failures are probably the single biggest problem the position players have had. This was supposed to be a core player for the future, and now he's in AAA.
At the same time, Ben Zobrist got old. Well, that's something everyone expected at least. But Zobrist, Fowler, and Russell were all elected as starters to the All-Star Team in 2016. None have really contributed anything this year. If it wasn't for Zobrist's 2018, I'd say they'd contributed nothing offensively.
Now, you do have Baez stepping up. But that's just one slot.
Meanwhile, prior to this year Heyward has been a disappointment. And Schwarber.... he's got power, but not much else. His line from 2017-onward: .224/.329/.469. The team expected more from him than that. You can't blame it all on his slow start to 2017, either. His batting average this year is only slightly higher than his 2017 season batting average. It ain't like his glove's making him a major leaguer. By WAA, he's been a below average player each season since the world title.
This is the glass half-empty look. Almora was OK in 2017. Zobrist was good in 2018. Heyward's been good in 2019. Even among the guys mentioned here,
you've got something good each year. But what looked like a stacked lineup has turned into a lineup with 3-4 holes in it each year.
They're still 6th in the NL in runs/game. And 4th in OPS (6th in OPS+, but one point behind MIL & ARI). The strong points on the team are still strong, and almost all teams have some problems. But the above is why the Cubs have had problems.
The lack of production from several slots is a bigger deal than the lack of a good leadoff man.
I dunno, this seems like a pretty massive oversell. If we look back to the winter of 2017, the Cubs had a handful of young players who looked good in brief or extended stints over the previous two years that we hoped would take the next step and become stars. (For the purpose of this argument, we'll say that Bryant and Rizzo were already established as superstars and despite some injuries and slumps in subsequent years, they've remained at that level).
Now, if you would have asked me in January 2017, which of Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Contreras, Almora and Happ (who didn't have any MLB experience, but had first round pedigree, so we'll lump him into this group) was going to take the next step and become a top 50 MLB players, I would have said Addison and Schwarbs (and I think most around here would have, too). Instead it was Baez and Contreras who broke out while Russell and Schwarber have hovered around the floor of their potential (or worse, all things considered for Russell). Still, though that doesn't seem too bad in terms of cashing in on your young assets, and there is still value to be out of the rest of that bunch (except Russell, who still would be valuable if he wasn't a total ########). It seems unfair to call the Cubs to task for the failure of Schwarber and Russell to become stars, without giving them credit for Javy and Willson reaching (or in Baez's case, exceeding) their reasonable near-term ceilings.
Cubs starters since the ASG: 19 GS, 109.2 IP, 19 BB, 110 K
Lester 27.5
Hamels 20.0
Darvish 20.0
Chatwood 12.5
Quintana 10.5
Hendricks 7.4
His bat just gets worse and worse?
OPS+ by season:
2015: 91
2016: 94
2017: 84
2018: 76
2019: 88
Obviously last year was a bit of a dropoff but otherwise he's been pretty consistent. He already has more HR this year in very limited time than he did all last year.
He didn't become what we all hoped for, of course, and moving him to 2B took some of his value away. But apart from his personal issues, an excellent defensive middle infielder with his bat obviously has value.
He's back tomorrow. He made a rehab start in Iowa the other night.
2015: 91
2016: 94
2017: 84
2018: 76
2019: 88
Obviously last year was a bit of a dropoff but otherwise he's been pretty consistent.
There's two years of drop off there: In 2017 and again in 2018. An OPS+ of 94 is good for a SS. Really, it's an average OPS+ for a shortstop.
But an OPS+ in 2017 of 84? That's bad. NL shortstops overall had an OPS of 712 in 2017. Addison Russell was at 657. And that league SS OPS includes all backups and middle infielders. In the 2017 NL, 18 players had 300+ PA while playing at least half their games at SS. Russell tied for 12th in OPS+ and 14th in oWAR. But he was young and people take backwards steps sometimes.
I figured he was going to improve in 2018. Hey, development isn't a straight line. Instead he was even worse. An OPS+ of 76 is replacement level. This time 16 NL players had 300+ PA while playing at least half of their games at SS. Russell ranked 14th in oWAR and 14th in OPS+. He still had value because of his tremendous defense, but offensively he'd gone from average at the position to near the bottom.
Vs LHP Gonzalez today:
Heyward RF
Castellanos LF
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Almora
Bote
Hamels
Guess they're still not buying Almora's 34wRC+ against LHP.
Like I said, cherry picking, but outside those 4 games he was worse than last year. But considering the small samples involved, I'm fine saying his bat was getting worse and worse.
Addison Russell in his get-sent-to-AAA season: .247/.329/.404
He's the exact same hitter he's always been. He'd have to be Khris Davis to post more similar numbers than that.
OK - that's a nice one.
He's definitely having his best offensive year since 2016. I was surprised that the Cubs demoted him. My impression at the time - bolstered by what you note in post #76, that it was more caused by other factors. He'd been caught playing brain dead on defense and on the bases in the days/weeks prior to his demotion. He made a comment to the media after a bad baserunning day that he needed to learn the signals (!) while on the bases. Joe Maddon gave a radio interview a day or two before the demotion saying that he's been taught all the things to do by the coaches, he just has to actually go and do it.
If I want to nitpick the 2016/2019 offensive comparison, the context has changed a bit. In 2016, the NL average 4.48 runs/game and had an overall OPS of 734. In 2019, it's 4.76 and 752 respectively. Wrigley is mildly more of a hitter's park these days (it's slight: 101 factor in 2016, 103 now). His OPS should be up about 35 points instead of down by 5. But that's nitpicking - even with all that, his adjusted OPS is 95% of what it was in 2016.
Here's a split for you - Addison Russell as a starter vs. as a sub (AVG/OBP/SLG) in 2019:
Starter: .258/.354/.444
Substitute: .182/.174/.182
17 games off the bench: 24 PA, 4 singles, no walks. 1 SH, 1 SF.
Yet ignoring all that, as well as the league context and the fact that he turned out to be a total piece of ####, he's still extremely disappointing because a guy that can come up and hold their own at 21/22 is the type of guy you expect to improve - maybe hope they make a leap even - and not regress. Even if he'd maintained that ~90ish OPS+ from his first 2 seasons these last 3, he'd be seen as a disappointment because he never improved at anything. Maybe his minor league numbers should have been a sign that he'd top out at this type of player and not break out like Bogaerts (who was still better than Russell before the offensive jump the last couple years), but he was always young for his leagues and hit at least average for those leagues.
Yes, Dag, turning into a moron in the field and on the bases and lacking any self-awareness about it (though we shouldn't be surprised by that part), was the final straw that sent him back down. He also gets more than his fair share of ####, and that's probably deflecting some hate that should also be going Schwarber's way**
*Yet he's still way off his pace for both oWAR and dWAR this year compared to that year too.
**His bat always looked like it'd be better than it's turned out, and he's also been a victim of hype - much of it brought on by the front office - but he also has taken some real steps back this year after he looked better last year (and assuming his terrible luck in the clutch last year regressed to the mean, it wasn't that crazy to think he'd actually hit better than last year even if he didn't improve at all).
---
Since Bryant hurt his knee against the Giants, he's gone 5 for 33 with 12Ks/1BB and no XBH. Maybe it's just a coincidental slump - a sore knee shouldn't really make his chase as many pitches out of the zone he has been lately, but he was in a really good stretch when he got hurt. Maybe I'm just overly pessimistic after how last year went with his shoulder, but they really can't afford to have him at this reduced level while Contreras is out.
Rizzo is also in another mini-slump since they got to SF (.602OPS plus today's 0 for 3 with a BB). Javy seems to be heating up a bit. I'm not sure how good Castellanos will really be, but he's had a bunch of great ABs so far and has a lot of loud outs (he hasn't been challenged at all defensively yet in either corner, but with his rep and numbers I would have expected him to at least look a lot more awkward than he's been).
---
Hamels looked good. That's 5 straight starts with the SP not issuing a walk.
Which means that since the ASG, Cubs starters are now averaging less than one walk per game. That seems impressive - I'd have to assume that they've never done that in any other 20-game stretch in the 30+ years that I've been following them.
Heyward
Castellanos
Rizzo
Baez
Schwarber
Caratini
Kemp
Bote
Darvish
It's like a switch just flipped or something with him. After the game, Maddon said Yu was a bit sick yesterday so that's partially why he was pulled after 5 innings.
HR rate is a very fluky thing so I don't want to put too much into that. His game logs do have an interesting pattern, though. At first he's got a bad K:BB and home run rate; then a bad K:BB but he stops giving up homers; then a good K:BB but starts giving up lots of homers again; and recently he's doing well on all counts.
I'll believe well after I see it.
Well that just sounds terrifying.
Guess it could have been worse. My fear though is that he just won't be 100% again, or he gets reinjured shortly after coming back. I'd still expect a veteran C signing any day now.
Someone (?) mentioned probably another RP to the IL, but there's no obvious one as I don't recall anyone leaving any of the games this weak with anything of note injury-wise.
EDIT: Twitter rumors are that it's Kimbrel, but no reasons or anything official yet. Ugh.
I appreciate the rankings addition. What an unreal turnaround.
---
Heyward
Castellanos
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Schwarber
Caratini
Kemp
Hendricks
Brach cleared waivers.
No updates yet today.
Maddon did a good job last night with the pen, I think. I'm worried about Cishek, but he also got jobbed when CB missed a clear strike 3 and Martini homered later that AB (but I really can't complain that much about the zone as CB was extremely bad, as usual, but it felt like the Cubs had more go in their favor than the A's).
Bryant just doesn't look right at all. He just seems like he can't hit anything hard, when he finally succeeds at making contact which looks hard for him even. Thankfully Javy is on one of his tears, and Castellanos looks like a perfect compliment to this offense. I kinda want to see Happ at 2b to see if that's doable at all.
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