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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, May 06, 2019That was funThe first road trip of the season feels so long ago now, doesn’t it? Coming into the season I was on the more optimistic side of people around here; I still overreacted a little to that piss poor start. As plenty of people have said, teams are never as bad as they look at their worst or as good as they do at their best. However, I see no reason to think the Cubs aren’t much more likely really this good - well, not .800 win percentage good, but 95 wins good. The Cubs have the best run differential (and best on a per game basis by a nice margin); they’re just 0.01 r/g behind TEX for the ML lead (5.9 r/g), and are all the way back up to 3rd in the NL in ra/g (4.26, but it’s 2.77 since that 9 game opening trip). There obviously is plenty of offensive regression coming - Contreras, Heyward, and Bote are the obvious candidates, not to mention the utter unpredictability of the entire bullpen. Javy is a different story, and I’m not going to even begin to try and predict what’s gong to happen with him; he has clearly made improvements yet again from last year (going the other way a ton more), but he’s basically a baseball wizard so he can just do whatever he wants I guess. Rizzo has rebounded nicely (.340/.438/.774 last 14 games), Bryant’s also rebounding - though more quietly (.277/.444/.596 last 14), and even Schwarber looks better if you cherry pick enough (.320/.419/.560 last 9). On the pitching side, only Lester appears to be significantly out-pitching his FIP, but as I mentioned in a comment in the last thread his peripherals are much closer to his good 2016 than his luckier 2018. Hamels and Quintana appear to be back to the solid, reliable selves and good for Pops giving Hendricks his vote of absolute confidence right before Kyle threw his Maddux. Darvish continues to be absolutely maddening (is it me, or is he going really out of his way to try and completely avoid all contact?), but the stuff appears to be there - unlike last year, where it seemed like he never had it. IOW, I think it might be mental with him, and I think the Cubs absolutely should be doing everything they can to try and straighten him out, as he has an upside none of the other SP options can touch. I saw some conversation in the game chatter yesterday about either a 6 man rotation (wouldn’t be the worst idea, though no one has said anything about it yet) or either Chatwood or Montgomery taking his spot. First off, I think the Chatwood suggestion is ludicrous; he’s closer to being just released than given a rotation spot again IMO (I’m not completely opposed to a spot start against the right opponent). Montgomery is just a guy, and I’d only put him in over Darvish if Yu was hurt or completely worthless (and he’s not close to that yet; again, a spot start or 2 is fine). I’ll be happy to change my mind if Davish doesn’t show any signs over improvement over the next 4-6 weeks. The bullpen has once again been a surprising strength. Almost everyone has had a blowup or two, but everyone’s overall numbers look pretty good which means that they’ve been really good outside of the obvious hiccups. Kyle Ryan is really flying under the radar, but he looks like he’s solidified a spot in the pen for the rest of the year to me; he’s not just a LOOGY either. Strop is basically a metronome at this point, one that is consistently underappreciated. Brach is another version of Cishek, and both have been solid. Kintzler has bounced back nicely, and I’m inclined to believe what he’s doing is “real” as his bad stretch last year is really the outlier. I’ll continue to dream on Maples, while also accepting it’s probably a long shot if we ever see Morrow in a Cubs uniform again. This team is the 2016 team, and isn’t approaching that level of domination. But today, you can make a strong argument that the Cubs are in the discussion for the best team in baseball. That’s about all you can really ask for, and so I’m going to enjoy this ride while it lasts. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: May 06, 2019 at 10:11 AM | 488 comment(s)
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It's pretty crazy that a team that started out 1-6 now has the second best record and the best run differential in all of baseball. Granted it's not even mid-May, but it's been fun.
Also, he and Hottovy have really figured out this bullpen after a bunch of head-scratching moves the first two weeks. Granted, their job has been relatively easy with the starters going deep into games and a ton of off-days. Still, though, this is a very unintimidating bullpen full of spare parts, and after some tinkering they've been really good. Although I hadn't noticed until just now how many guys Brach has walked. Yikes.
The starters have really gotten the walks under control, though. Lester and Quintana are both down almost a full walk per nine, and Hendricks is right at his usual rate after some issues early in the year (and early last year). Lester is overperforming his FIP, but his FIP is still really good (3.38), so even if he regresses towards that, he'll still be racking up wins.
Really not much to complain about, which I guess is obvious after a 16-4 stretch. They're on a 99-win pace. As long as the offense stays this productive - and they were productive even during the first road trip - then the pitching staff can slide a little bit and this team will still be really good.
It's okay. It was me. Obviously, Darvish has the most upside of any Cubs starter. And with the way the offense and the rest of the Cubs' pitching staff is going, they can definitely afford to keep throwing him out there in the hopes that it clicks. And I'm completely fine with them continuing to do that as long as they think it makes sense. But as I said in the Chatter, at some point a 5 ERA is a 5 ERA, and the Cubs have options that can do better than that.
And as for Chatwood, if you're going to point to Darvish's pre-Cubs career as evidence that he's really a good pitcher going through a funk (and it's entirely reasonable for you to do so), I think it's only fair to do the same with Chatwood, who put up a 114 ERA+ in five years in Colorado (and has a 109 ERA+ this season) and is still only 29 years old.
Chatwood's FIP is 6.08, so no, he isn't a guy that's an option that will do better than a 5 ERA; Darvish is 6.82, so it's not like it's asking a lot to do better. Either you're putting an absurd amount of confidence on Chatwood's one fluke start this year or you just don't remember how terrible he's been. That current 4.11 ERA Chatwood is sporting right now is a total and utter fluke.
His ERA in his five years as a Rockie was 4.18.
Since the beginning of the year, my opinion of Darvish has greatly diminished, plus I now absolutely hate watching him pitch. I'm not arguing anything beyond the fact that Chatwood is not a better option than Darvish, today, based on both of their tenures as Cubs. I haven't brought up his pre-Cubs career until this comment right now, and I don't see what it has to do with Chatwood at all, since Chatwood has never been better than Darvish, up to, and including, today.
I don't see a lot of reason to be optimistic about Darvish, but his K rate has stayed high and his velocity and stuff both appear to be there. I see zero reasons to be optimistic about Chatwood.
As for Montgomery instead of Darvish, meh. If Darvish needs to go on the IL, I'd rather see Montgomery in the rotation than Darvish. I'd hope there's a better option in AAA, honestly, but can't say for sure if there is. I think Darvish is probably getting closer to maybe being thought about being bumped from the rotation. That'll open up add'l issues - like a contending bullpen can't carry both Chatwood and unstartable Darvish, but that's a bridge they'll have to cross when they get there.
Hmmm, didn't see that coming this quickly. There's no reason not to bring some of these guys up and send em back down as needed. I don't know if they can really do that with CJ though, I think if he's back the expectation is that he's back for good. Regardless, I hope he's figured things out.
I know they'd have to lose Webster if he was sent down, but I honestly might prefer Maples to him. Montgomery is going to be back soon, not sure who goes down for him now (unless they start playing the IL game).
Javy ages 23-26 (so far)
273/314/423, 94 OPS+, 14 HR
273/317/480, 102, 23
290/326/554, 128, 34
316/350/654, 154, 11 (50+ pace)
Total: 283/322/507, 114, 82 ... 26/5 K%/BB% ... 15.2% HR/FB
Sosa ages 23-26
260/317/393, 98, 8 (just 291 PA)
261/309/485, 112, 33
300/339/545, 127, 25 (strike year)
268/340/500, 122, 36 (shortened year)
Total: 272/327/490, 117, 102 (with 300 more PA) ... 21/7 K/BB ... 14.8% HR/FB
Sure, striking out more and even walking less than Sosa takes some doing but good defensive 2B/SS with those numbers compared with good defensive RF and it's 5.5 WAR per 650 for Javy vs 4.5 for Sammy.
Sosa had a lousy year in 97 then the big magic started happening ... but the first 3 years of that magic ... 305/383/639, 157, about what Javy has been doing so far this year. We can't expect Javy to keep it up for the rest of the year, I just thought that was an interesting coincidence too. If Javy could just get the wild swings a little bit under control, there are plenty of times pitchers would be happy to walk him if he's gonna ISO 300.
-Cubs had 8 hits and 10 walks, but only scored 6 runs.
-The Kyle Ryan total brainfart in the 9th, which allowed what ended up being the deciding run to score (runners on 2nd/3rd 1 out, Ryan snares a comebacker and has the runner going home dead to rights, but inexplicably turns and throws out the batter at first).
-Strop having his worst outing, arguably ever. It was kinda obvious early on he had no idea where the ball was going, but that's not usually a problem for him so I don't really blame Maddon for not pulling him sooner.
-Having Almora PH against a RHP instead of Descalso with the bases loaded. At first, I thought it probably just meant Descalso wasn't able to go (he hurt his ankle Saturday), but then he PH in the 9th. Maddon may have been overthinking things there, looking ahead to double switching in Almora for defense. It was a real chance to blow the game open, and Almora K'd and then Zobrist grounded into a DP to end the inning.
On the good side, that was the hardest hit ball Bryant has had in years (literally). Javy took his 6th non-IBB BB. CJ had a clean inning in his first time back, in the 7th of a 1 run game, no less.
5 runs
Cubs 18-7, +63
Hou 18-9, +54
StL 18-10, +28
Yanks, Twins 17-10, +36 and +30
TB 16-10, +43
For comparison, Marlins 8-18 and -60 ... as long as we remain the mirror image of the Marlins, I like our chances.
---
However, maybe he is still getting luckier that the H/K/BB rates might imply.
---
I think whatever was causing his problem early in the year (mechanics, lingering shoulder issues, bad haircut) has been addressed (his haircut is still awful, but it's no longer the source of his suckage).
---
Highlighting Kintzler's numbers so far: 16.2IP, 17K, 2 BB. Easily his best H%, K%, and BB% in his career (save some cups of coffee early on). I'm sure his BABIP will go up, but for now, he's fooling guys and making them miss.
Middle aged guys with hair are so judgmental.
I think stony silence would be the coolest crowd reaction (or the one that currently jibes most with my own feelings on the matter) and from there cheers or hisses based on his performance.
Cubs are playing the Marlins, so I am blacked out from the games and didn't see it.
I hope everything is ok.
Damn hamstrings. Would explain his outing the other night.
...
Russell hitting 8th, playing 2b. Heyward at leadoff (like I said he should).
I'm sure there are a wide variety of things which would go unrecognized by most people but are well known to in-groups.
Hmmm
And even if he did have a good year, can he really beat the 4/$86mil left on his deal? Last offseason Cain got 5/$80mil and this year Pollock got 4/$55mil. He'd be a yearish younger than both of them when they signed their deals, but would anyone really value him at Cain's level? Could he even get what Pollock got? If he got a longer deal that had more total money, he'd take it, but who is signing a 30yo corner OF (who can play CF, but still) to a contract longer than 4 years? I was thinking maybe the Cubs add on a year or two at the end at a smaller annual amount to lower his AAV, but why would they do that unless he was signing for like $10mil total extra (and even then, I wonder how that'd be looked at).
Don't get attached to Amaya and Hoerner. The Cubs do have the possibility of dipping into the Bote/Schwarber/Happ/Russell collection.
I wouldn't expect them to get an elite reliever, even if it's a "proven closer."
I did predict the Cubs would trade for a new starting position player, maybe there's a bigger deal out there for a corner OF/closer that involves Russell/Scwharber/whatever.
I did predict the Cubs would trade for a new starting position player, maybe there's a bigger deal out there for a corner OF/closer that involves Russell/Scwharber/whatever.
If they do this, I have to think CF is most likely.
My younger son (5) bought an axe bat for tball this year. Not for that reason, but because it was red and gold. I will say, just playing around with it, I really like how the handle feels and think it's something I would use were I playing. My older son will get a new bat next year, and I'll probably steer him towards one of those.
That or 2b where really what I was thinking about before the season, but Heyward has played there quite a bit this year and I think they still like Almora (or I guess he could go in a trade, too). I think what I'm saying now is that those guys can probably handle CF, and then you have one corner to rotate Bryant/Zobrist/whoever is left of Happ/Schwarber, so you add a middle of the order (or maybe guy who goes leadoff fulltime) guy to start every day in the other corner; I'm also guessing it's easier to find a corner guy than a real CF. I think between what's left (and maybe Hoerner), 2b is probably fine for this year and maybe the hope is Hoerner is the long term answer there.
Problem is, who? Looking at the teams currently out of contention, there's no one other than Trout who would be an upgrade. Billy Hamilton, Ian Desmond, Kevin Pillar, Juan Lagares, Jacoby Jones, whomever is filling the role for Miami, KC, White Sox, Bluejays. Nats won't trade Robles. Ditto the A's and Laureano. That's every team currently with a losing record. Maybe there's a contender with a need the Cubs can fill who has 2 CF quality outfielders?
That piece doesn't point it out, but not only are they going the other way a ton, they're really, really good at it:
Mike Trout is in the process of constructing a potentially historically great career.
Why you would want to sacrifice this bit of history that can be shared by all baseball fans for the brief, fleeting moment of "We got Mike Trout!" exultation before the Theo OF curse takes hold and he turns into Matt Kemp is quite beyond me.
I am on that bandwagon, too. But let's not forget the Cubs started off very well under Chili.
Problem is, who?
I haven't looked around at the options much but I think they might be onto something with that Mike Trout kid.
Although not a CF, Choo is off to a great start. I'm sure he will be available.
Atlanta probably wouldn't mind putting Acuna in CF and trading Inciarte for major league pitching but I don't see how that matches up with the Cubs.
Tyler Chatwood is pitching in the majors.
Problem is, who?
Whit Merrifield, if the Royals would give him up? He plays mostly second but has spent time in the OF, including 27 CF starts last year (and the Cubs have some experience with players splitting time between those areas.)
Choo is signed through 2020 at another $21 M, can't see the Cubs touching that with a 10-foot pole.
The Cubs I'm sure would be happy to trade Russell for a comparable but probably lesser (in the baseball sense) bit.
On Chili ... yeah, this seems a lot like what Chili was (supposedly) preaching. Go the other way more, make more contact, be aggressive in the zone.
2019 257/352/461, 5.8 R/g (34 games, not including today)
2018 265/345/426, 5.1 R/g (1st "half")
2017 255/338/437, 5.1 R/g (all season)
2016 256/343/429, 5.0 R/g (all season)
2019 302 BABIP, 23% K/PA, 11% BB/PA, 4.0 HR/PA
2018 319 BABIP, 21% K/PA, 10% BB/PA, 2.7 HR/PA (1st half ... 313 BABIP for the full year)
2017 302 BABIP, 22% K/PA, 10% BB/PA, 3.6 HR/PA
2016 302 BABIP, 21% K/PA, 10% BB/PA, 3.1 HR/PA
The 2018 Cubs (full season) hit 344/527 (RH) and 366/556 (LH) the other way with 15 HR. 2019 is rocking it at 369/621 (RH) but worse 318/554 LH, 7 total HR so far. 2017 was 315/511 and 357/539, 18 HR ... 2016 was 276/386 and 296/452 with 7 HR. The last numbers look fishy but the overall counts seem reasonably similar over the years so it's probably not a change in coding. Is this a league-wide trend?
Anyway, what does this have to do with Chili? Probably nothing. They did the job in the first half but the only real difference to the previous years was a jump in BABIP and a drop in HR ... which we all know was followed in the 2nd half by a bigger drop in power. The K-rate wasn't even really improved in the first half. So it could be that Chili had limited effect in the 1st half (mostly a continuation of the previous two years) then as his approach settled in, the scoring went down. But of course it could have just been a random terrible (nearly) team-wide slump in the 2nd half.
Anyway, so far 2019 is smashing 2016 and 2017 but early days of course. Hopefully Bryant is back, hopefully Contreras doesn't came crashing to earth too hard -- he had only 10 HR last year but he's also about 50% ahead of his career-best pace, hopefully at least one of Schwarber/Zobrist/Almora starts to hit. Bote has already turned back into Bote, Descalso back to Descalso, so I suspect we'll be struggling offensively at 2B all year. (Or SS if Russell and Javy switch.)
Given the scoring it doesn't seem possible but the Cub pos players are still a distant second in WAA to the Dodgers, barely ahead of the Brewers. Second is fine and all but it suggests we might be coming back closer to that 5.1 R/g we've been averaging when going well the last few years. This is impressive though -- Cub catchers 1.6 WAA; 2nd place Mia/Phi at 0.2 WAA. Contreras is on pace for about 9 WAR ... that would be pretty good. Also Javy's to nearly 2 WAA already (I didn't think he'd take to SS THIS well) but DeJong remains a bit ahead.
Top WAR seasons, at least 80% at catcher
Piazza 1997 8.7
Carter 1982 8.6
Bench 1972 8.6
Bench 1974 7.9
Mauer 2009 7.8
Posey 2012 7.6
Porter 1979 7.6
Carter 1984 7.5
Bench 1970 7.4
Fisk 1972 7.3
The Bench kid was pretty good.
Best pre-expansion is Campy 1951 at 7.1 ... he has the only other pre-expansion season in the top 20. Best pre-WW2 is Dickey 1937 at 6.8 ... biggest surprise in the top 25 is probably Rick Wilkins at 6.6 (Cub record) but arguably Hoiles at 6.8.
In case you were wondering (I was), Berra's best year was "just" 5.7 (but one of 4 seasons over 5) and Hartnett's best 5.6.
What are you trying to say here Walt?
He was high on a bunch of our wishlists at the start of the offseason - I may have even been hoping for a Happ+ deal with maybe the Royals preferring the younger guy. Obviously, didn't happen, and like Walt said, yeah, he's not going anywhere now (and he's probably better at 2b than OF anyway).
Oh yeah ... Heyward ... c'mon, there was an exclamation point. Clearly humorous. Maybe, maybe if he put up a 150 OPS+, he might think about opting out. But, unless he's got the worst agent in the world, he knows nobody would take any kind of offensive resurgence at face value after the last 3 years plus the defense seems to have slipped back to good/above-average. He knows he's not beating 4/$85 (or whatever).
I know you were joking...
He doesn‘t want to jinx Contreras who is off to an historic start.
*The Cubs have fallen well behind the Astros in the all important run differential title race; they're 3rd, but still have games in hand on TBR.
Interesting, I'd have guessed they did this in 2015 or 2016, both of which featured extended periods when it seemed they hardly lost at all. And I know the 2008 was good but I wouldn't have guessed they did it that year.
So they never did better than winning six straight series while vaulting out to a 47-20 start.
Now? They've won eight straight series and haven't lost any of their last 10 series. (The last series they didn't win was a two-game series they split). Not bad.
Anyway, it might behoove Joe to actually give Contreras a day off.
Oh sure, I didn't take it as a real comparison. I was just surprised because the 2015 and 2016 teams seemed so invincible at times.
I remember the 2015 team being near invincible in the second half, and they had a ton of winning streaks over the last 2 months of the season. After losing July 28 to fall to 52-47, they had streaks of 6, 9, 6, 5, 5, and 8. That's 39 of the 45 games they won after that point.
But somehow that never translated to more than a 3-series win streak.
At any rate, looking at the results from that season again, I'm remembering how fun it was. The 2016 team gets more love for obviously deserved reasons, but the 2015 team was very special in its own right. That's when it all came together, and all the promise of the rebuild finally manifested, seemingly all at once. That Giants series in early August that year still feels like a turning point for this franchise to me.
You're not the only one. I can't stop thinking about the end of last year, when they played something like 35 games in 35 days and really showed some wear in that last week of the season. They were flat against the Pirates as they let the Brewers get back into it, losing the first two of that series at home and almost dropping the third one.
I hope there's no weather troubles this summer, or we're going to be looking at the same situation again.
And of course if we don't drag midseason then those "extra" games give us a chance to pick up more ground. And of course possibly the Brewers are dragging now because of all the extra games they've played.
** Before looking at it, I just assumed (a) we had more rainouts this year than I remembered and (b) the 2nd half was gonna be brutal. Turns out the answer to (a) is "no" and (b) is "end of first half may be brutal."
Saying a team isn't as good as a team that won 103 games, had a run differential consistent with 107 wins, and won the World Series isn't exactly controversial. But the thing is, the 2019 Cubs aren't that far off the pace.
In some ways, I think the slow start is still coloring peoples' perceptions. Folks still tend to do the "Since the Cubs started 2-7, they have ...." Which I think undersells this team a bit - it makes it look like you have to cherry pick and focus on their unsustainably hot recent play.
The Cubs now have the best record in the National League and are on pace for 102 or 103 wins - with a Pythag to match that. And that's not "since" anything except the start of the season. They have the fewest losses in MLB - due in part to Walt's point.
It's true that the Cubs aren't going to play .778 ball the rest of the season (their winning percentage since starting 3-6). But if they mix the clunkers in among the wins from here on out instead of concentrating them within a week like they did to start the season, the early indications are that the Cubs could well play at least .600 ball the rest of the way, maybe even the .630 they've done so far.
Thankfully Caratini is rehabbing in Iowa. I'm guessing Davis might get one more start (he's caught Yu's last few games) tomorrow, and then maybe VC is back. But yes, I worry about Willson more than almost anything else related to this team.
Saying a team isn't as good as a team that won 103 games, had a run differential consistent with 107 wins, and won the World Series isn't exactly controversial. But the thing is, the 2019 Cubs aren't that far off the pace.
Even agreeing with your context, all I mean is that after 38 games, the 2016 was already 27-9, up 7.5 games and was +108 in run differential. FWIW, neither FG (92 wins) or BPro (86) are completely buying the Cubs as this good yet or that much better than the initial projections (I know they don't just throw the forecasts out the window).
I saw a tweet yesterday about this; it appears it's something Karl Ravech said on the Waddle and Silvy show. It rang as BS to me from the start.
All that said, Descalso is down to a 76 OPS+, Zobrist still at 62 ... an injury or two, Bryant in the OF or 1B, etc. and my uncertainty that Russell can play 3B well (just cuz I don't think he ever has) and I can see some games with Javy at 3B and Russell at SS and Russell back as a near-everyday player.
On projections and such ... the Cubs have at least finally moved to the top of the NL WAA table at 6.2 (Dodgers 5.0) and that WAA corresponds to their win total. But we are below-average across the entire OF and at 2B ... and average in the pen. So it's really the rotation and the big 4 hitters. Given the projections this year were pretty unkind to Lester and Hendricks, I can see where the projections still expect the rotation to drop to average or worse.
Still, at this point, I'm expecting Hendricks to IBB a guy just to see if he can complete a game in fewer than 27 pitches.
Bryant's hot stretch already has him back up to 10th in all of MLB in fWAR; during his current 23 game on base streak, he's now hitting .309/.457/.679. That's the ridiculous type of performance I predicted for him this year (and last year, which he was doing before he got hurt).
I'm not exactly a fan of Maddon's Ryan as a LOOGY then go to Cishek to close out games. Mostly because it's multiple pitching changes and I wonder if either would be just fine if left in there.
Heyward's tumble back into Heywarddom continues unabated, but with his overall season line still giving the illusion of acceptability.
Ugh, Darvish pitching tonight. Why couldn't he be going tomorrow or Friday when I can't watch anyway
Heyward
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber
Bote
Almora
Russell
Davis
Darvish
Sub in Zagunis for Bryant and Descalso for Baez and you'd have the prototypical Dusty getaway day crew.
Just a reminder, Chatwood's BB/9 last year was 8.2. I'm still not buying "new" Chatwood, but maybe some combo/half½ starter of Chatwood/Montgomery will be less bad than Darvish. I still would wait and see a few more Yu starts (and by see, I really don't want to watch them, just look at the stats the next day).
Double ugh.
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