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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Monday, May 06, 2019That was funThe first road trip of the season feels so long ago now, doesn’t it? Coming into the season I was on the more optimistic side of people around here; I still overreacted a little to that piss poor start. As plenty of people have said, teams are never as bad as they look at their worst or as good as they do at their best. However, I see no reason to think the Cubs aren’t much more likely really this good - well, not .800 win percentage good, but 95 wins good. The Cubs have the best run differential (and best on a per game basis by a nice margin); they’re just 0.01 r/g behind TEX for the ML lead (5.9 r/g), and are all the way back up to 3rd in the NL in ra/g (4.26, but it’s 2.77 since that 9 game opening trip). There obviously is plenty of offensive regression coming - Contreras, Heyward, and Bote are the obvious candidates, not to mention the utter unpredictability of the entire bullpen. Javy is a different story, and I’m not going to even begin to try and predict what’s gong to happen with him; he has clearly made improvements yet again from last year (going the other way a ton more), but he’s basically a baseball wizard so he can just do whatever he wants I guess. Rizzo has rebounded nicely (.340/.438/.774 last 14 games), Bryant’s also rebounding - though more quietly (.277/.444/.596 last 14), and even Schwarber looks better if you cherry pick enough (.320/.419/.560 last 9). On the pitching side, only Lester appears to be significantly out-pitching his FIP, but as I mentioned in a comment in the last thread his peripherals are much closer to his good 2016 than his luckier 2018. Hamels and Quintana appear to be back to the solid, reliable selves and good for Pops giving Hendricks his vote of absolute confidence right before Kyle threw his Maddux. Darvish continues to be absolutely maddening (is it me, or is he going really out of his way to try and completely avoid all contact?), but the stuff appears to be there - unlike last year, where it seemed like he never had it. IOW, I think it might be mental with him, and I think the Cubs absolutely should be doing everything they can to try and straighten him out, as he has an upside none of the other SP options can touch. I saw some conversation in the game chatter yesterday about either a 6 man rotation (wouldn’t be the worst idea, though no one has said anything about it yet) or either Chatwood or Montgomery taking his spot. First off, I think the Chatwood suggestion is ludicrous; he’s closer to being just released than given a rotation spot again IMO (I’m not completely opposed to a spot start against the right opponent). Montgomery is just a guy, and I’d only put him in over Darvish if Yu was hurt or completely worthless (and he’s not close to that yet; again, a spot start or 2 is fine). I’ll be happy to change my mind if Davish doesn’t show any signs over improvement over the next 4-6 weeks. The bullpen has once again been a surprising strength. Almost everyone has had a blowup or two, but everyone’s overall numbers look pretty good which means that they’ve been really good outside of the obvious hiccups. Kyle Ryan is really flying under the radar, but he looks like he’s solidified a spot in the pen for the rest of the year to me; he’s not just a LOOGY either. Strop is basically a metronome at this point, one that is consistently underappreciated. Brach is another version of Cishek, and both have been solid. Kintzler has bounced back nicely, and I’m inclined to believe what he’s doing is “real” as his bad stretch last year is really the outlier. I’ll continue to dream on Maples, while also accepting it’s probably a long shot if we ever see Morrow in a Cubs uniform again. This team is the 2016 team, and isn’t approaching that level of domination. But today, you can make a strong argument that the Cubs are in the discussion for the best team in baseball. That’s about all you can really ask for, and so I’m going to enjoy this ride while it lasts. Moses Taylor loves a good maim
Posted: May 06, 2019 at 10:11 AM | 488 comment(s)
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Do they get any credit for Arrieta? His last partial season in BAL before coming over he was 1-2 with a 7.33 ERA.
With the Cubs, 68-31 with a 2.73 ERA.
Joe sorta tried that once in Tampa, didn't get away with it.
Anyway, two games in a row with Almora on the bench. Color me un-amused. On the other hand, two wins, so color me sufficiently content.
My opinion in real time was that Heyward in RF -- Almora in CF -- and Heyward gets to that CarGo ball fairly easily. That was a "great" play because it looked like he was too slow to get there, then he did; Heyward would have just gotten there without the drama. Caveat -- Jason seems a bit shy of the wall this year so maybe he pulls up.
196/345/424, 33 K in 119 PA
186/288/330, 21 K in 111 PA
169/242/186, 21 K in 66 PA
258/287/536, 16 K in 104 PA
Three guys who couldn't even reach a 200 BA (granted, 3 guys who couldn't even reach a 300 OBP).
Sure. I always disliked the conversations about what development credit the Cubs get for guys like Russell or Bryant or what have you. Jake is something they definitely fixed/unlocked something the O's never could. I know he spent some time in the minors, but he's a success of the major league coaches in a way that maybe even Edwards or Hendricks aren't. The constant here is that none of those guys were drafted/completely developed in house. Unless Azolay or Maples makes it and sticks, that will remain true through this year.
IOW, they reached for a pitcher that was ranked really low and looks like he might be a RP at best. That's the type of move most teams get raked for doing, and the Cubs should as well. I've seen enough of "well, if the Cubs liked him" or just "get him in the Pitch Lab". Those are worthless claims that the Cubs have no right making, IMO.
My opinion in real time was that Heyward in RF -- Almora in CF -- and Heyward gets to that CarGo ball fairly easily. That was a "great" play because it looked like he was too slow to get there, then he did; Heyward would have just gotten there without the drama. Caveat -- Jason seems a bit shy of the wall this year so maybe he pulls up.
Yep. and Yep.
I was challenged on my worry with CarGo in the game chatter and my comment there is that this feels/sounds different to me. I think I usually give Joe/FO the benefit of the doubt, but I'm worried/concerned/hesitant here.
IOW, they reached for a pitcher that was ranked really low and looks like he might be a RP at best. That's the type of move most teams get raked for doing, and the Cubs should as well. I've seen enough of "well, if the Cubs liked him" or just "get him in the Pitch Lab". Those are worthless claims that the Cubs have no right making, IMO.
It was a notably weak pitching draft. I'm not inclined to give the Cubs the benefit of the doubt on drafting and developing pitchers but I also don't have any strong opinions on what they should have done with the pick. He profiles as a reliever but he is a starter with a slider and a changeup (which both need lots of work); and I don't think it's the same as drafting a college reliever as he's not necessarily locked into relieving long term. OTOH, taking college relievers with other high round picks does not inspire confidence.
---
The Reds are fascinating in how their offense/pitching strengths/weaknesses just totally flipped. If they were getting this pitching with their offensive performance of the last few years...
If Strop can stay healthy, and the magical unicorn that Morrow is healthy for a couple months this year...the Cubs might actually not need to trade anything useful for another bullpen arm and can make focus on a starting position player if they want....
Maybe I should be reading these as NOT (edit) being about CarGo as much as they're non-comments about everyone else. We've made fun of the veteran presence stuff for years now. None of these Cubs hitters are new anymore, some of them are already in their late 20's.
Yeah, I was flashing back to the days of the F-troop for a second there...
That's just an odd set of quotes. I mean, I know they're both still in their 20's, but how are Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward not "veteran presence" guys yet?
My first thought, after he made that catch and then hit the (honestly misplayed into a) double in his first two games was: this is how you end up with Neifi Perez, starting shortstop.
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
CarGo
Contreras
Heyward
Bote
Darvish
So, 3 for 3 with CarGo/Heyward both over Almora. Also, interesting to see Contreras catch Darvish - it's been either Davis or Caratini for some time now. Caratini started yesterday, so this was likely always the plan.
And nothing against CarGo, but ... what, his teams have made it to the postseason 3 times, all 3 as a WC. This passes for a "grownup" these days? He did tear it up against the Phils 10 years ago though.
When did Joe turn into Art Howe in Moneyball (the movie version)?
Over his last four starts, Darvish has 29 strikeouts vs. 8 walks, and only 3 home runs allowed.
So let's switch catchers on him! (no, I don't think it's likely to matter and he switched from Jumbo II to Caratini anyway)
Hmmm...
Fantastic.
I hope Kimbrel is ready to go.
I agree on the general underwhelm notion of Jensen. His fastball is MLB quality - but it's not an especially likely (movement-wise) fastball and while throwing in the upper 90s is fine, you'd prefer to see Chapman-esque velocity if that's his bread and butter. Anyway, I'm not sure I'd even bother trying to keep him starting -- even his change of pace is just a slider that grades out as barely passable. They'd probably be better off just focusing on developing the slider and leaving him in the pen. If nothing else - barring injury - the fastball should be enough to at least get him to the majors.
Ironically, the next closer they got - Louisville's Michael McAvene - probably has a better shot at starting. He's a got bit more of a repertoire, but he's also got a more prototypical 'closer mentality' (he just managed to get himself ejected and suspended in the CWS for arguing balls/strikes).
The 2nd rounder - Chase Strumpf - is an interesting pick. He's something of a mini-Keston Hiura. Dude can hit. Pre-season 2019, he was nibbling at being a 1st rounder, but he had a really disappointing Jr season after a dynamite sophomore year. Still, I think most boards had him near the top 50 - so it's not a bad value pick. His big problem is that he's very defensively limited. As in, if he can't stick at 2B - he's probably a 1B/LF type. I've seen him compared to a RHB Daniel Murphy.
The guy I really like is the 6th rounder - prep catcher Ethan Hearn. Kid is a legit top 100 draft prospect and probably the 2nd or 3rd best catcher in the draft. He's a plus defender and while there's some question about his bat, I think it will develop. He's a sturdy, blocky linebacker type - I could see him being a David Ross sort. Figure the Cubs likely save some slot money earlier - Hearn will probably take a big bonus to sign, but this is a good lottery ticket.
Lots of other arms that look ticketed for the bullpen.... personally, I'd have preferred to roll the dice on a prep arm (Brennan Malone was a guy who went a few picks later that I'd have taken, for one). But all in all, the Cubs ought to get at least some future bullpen help out of this draft... If Strumpf bounces back and/or Hearn develops, so the much better.
....and yeah.... welcome to the north side Craig Kimbrel!
Regardless, right now the pen looks like:
Closer: Kimbrel
High leverage: Strop/Cishek
The rest: Kintzler/Montgomery/Brach/Edwards/Chatwood/Ryan
Anyone in the rest can't really be trusted, but I'm guessing Kintzler is safe and Chatwood's contract keeps him here*. One of the last 5 will have to go when Kimbrel is ready; Edwards and Montgomery have options I believe. Ryan would have to get through waivers and the Cubs have been hesitant to do that so far, but they're probably gonna have to. Monty would then be the only lefty. I'm going to continue to pine for Maples because of that stuff and the chance he could be special. Perhaps Azolay comes up and sticks, who knows.
*I just never will trust him, but he's been ok - if not great, and you definitely need one long guy.
It's kinda pointless to do splits with RP as the samples are small enough, but Ryan's numbers are somewhat buoyed by a nice start (which maybe makes me think batters just didn't know what to expect from him). Regardless, since the start of May, in 16 appearances (only covering 9 innings), Ryan has given up 3 HRs and only has 6 Ks (14H/2BB). Brach's walk rate has come down since April (but is still way too high), but he's at least still striking guys out and has only given up 1 HR this year.
I'm not really going to defend either (and still would rather have Maples than both of them), so there really isn't a bad decision to make between them.
Bryant RF
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Bote 3b
Almora
Descalso
Quintana
Veteran Presence Superstar CarGo gets his first break.
This seems like a better/more realistic solution to me than hoping Maples suddenly figures out how to throw strikes for the first time ever at age 27.
I really want Ben Zobrist to come back. I don't want him to retire. Come back, Ben.
I don't know if you just mean there's really nothing to say about this situation, but I'm not sure what to say. Yeah, I'd much rather he were on the team than Descalso at least, and this would be a pretty bummer of a way for him to end his career. The Cubs are at least saying spending on Kimbrel doesn't mean Zobrist is done, but I have to think it's extremely unlikely he comes back now just because how long he's been gone.
Remember how unclutch he was last year?
---
So Hamels plunked Arenado today, maybe on purpose maybe not, but Nolan left the game a few innings later. The Rockies then plunked Hamels later, but nothing happened. I know Cole has talked about plunking guys on purpose before, so I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt even though the situation wasn't ideal for it (it put 2 on, 1 out). I'm sure Bryant is tired of the Rockies hitting him (twice yesterday, once last week, last year in the head).
EDIT: Then the Rockies hit Rizzo - and gotta love Javy pimping his ridiculous HR after that. Then Brach plunks Wolters. As I said in the chatter, stupid is stupid, and there's plenty of stupid to go around here.
With nothing on the minor league horizon, I'd be interested in seeing if he'd do a 2 or maybe even 3 year ride into the sunset.
Alzolay is doing quite well in the launching pad of AAA. Mind you, his health means you need a good plan B if you're penciling him into the rotation.
Hamels is pitching well but given his current age (35), the Qualifying Offer fallback option, and the fact his ERA is a half run below his FIP, I am content to wait and see how the rest of 2019 goes for him.
Admittedly, I kind of find him annoying.
---
Schwarber at leadoff: .243/.322/.563. I'm actually surprised his OBP is lower than his season OBP (.332), but he has been better overall there.
CarGo as a Cub: .261/.379/.478. I dunno, I'm thinking dead cat bounce, right*? If not, maybe eventually he's the guy you have at leadoff and get Schwarber lower.
Heyward since 5/1: .226/.312/.387 & Almora since 5/1: .244/.280/.471. I don't believe in CarGo as fixed or anything, but maybe this still is your platoon in CF.
Bote since 5/1: .286/.356/.486. Started hot, slumped, but rebounded nicely. He played a lot the last week+ with Russell hurt (hand bruise) and Descalso legally JoseFMaciasing, but probably should be playing most days either at 2b or 3b (with KB in RF).
---
It was such a Maddon thing to have Ryan and Brach both pitch in Denver yesterday; at least the lead was really big. But Brach has to be on his way out, I guess he's got until Kimbrel arrives but I'd still rather see Maples or Wick these couple of weeks than him. Monty looks not good this year too.
*EDIT:
Descalso is pointless now that Russell is on the team. The Cubs have three guys who can cover 2B and two who can cover SS even without Descalso or Zobrist. And it's not like Descalso is a plus defender at second base, either. There is a chance somebody like Brach figures things out and becomes an asset in the second half. Descalso is just an emergency stopgap at this point and a number of teams have passed into the phase of the season where they will be happy to trade emergency stopgap types for a bucket of balls (should the Cubs end up needing one).
Dude is Aaron Miles v2.0
---
Descalso is pointless now that Russell is on the team. The Cubs have three guys who can cover 2B and two who can cover SS even without Descalso or Zobrist. And it's not like Descalso is a plus defender at second base, either. There is a chance somebody like Brach figures things out and becomes an asset in the second half. Descalso is just an emergency stopgap at this point and a number of teams have passed into the phase of the season where they will be happy to trade emergency stopgap types for a bucket of balls (should the Cubs end up needing one).
Totally agree. Cubs actually have a couple of guys in AAA that could duplicate Descalso right now. I think the Cubs, or more likely Maddon, like a veteran lefty PH bat type (you know, your TLS) which was probably the intended role to Descalso when they signed him (2 years - why????) but Zo leaving changed his role but also exposed him.
I'll just agree to disagree on Brach - his stuff isn't that great and the walks haven't gone down at all, now he's getting hit hard and this is what we get.
---
Lester was really good yesterday until he took the comebacker off his foot, then he was terrible. That could have happened anyway, but I bet that bothered him.
Cubs have hit a lot of HRs this year, so maybe their proportion of solo HRs is in line with the rest of the league and it just feels like a bunch of extra solo HRs because there's just more, but to me it sure feels like the Cubs % of solo HRs is much, much higher than % of solo HR allowed (for example - last night Cubs had the 2 solo, but the Dodgers got the 3 2 run HRs - with the Bellinger encore cherry on top). Someone prove me wrong (or right).
Yes, please.
Also I didnt watch the game til the 9th but 7 innings 1 walk 1 run and 10ks from darvish seems pretty damn good.
Cubs have 65 solo HR, 48 with men on (35 2R, 10 3R, 3 GS), for 177 RBI on 113 HR (1.57 per); they have allowed 43 solo HR, 35 with men on (25 2R, 9 3R, 1 GS), for 124 RBI on 78 HR (1.59 per).
Anyway...
Contreras last 14 games: .208/.283/.313, 17/4 K/BB
Javy this month (15g): .226/.226/.468, 17/0 K/BB
And what do you know, after an ok start, Russell is down to a .675OPS for the year.
In that 7 game stretch Pops mentioned, Darvish has 42.2IP, 47/12 K/BB, and 6HRs. That start Saturday was amazing - easily his best so far with the Cubs considering the opponent, and it keeps looking like he's slowly putting things together. He's also been fine enough to watch the last few games.
This is what's been so frustrating to me. Seems like in previous years, when the Cubs got off to an early lead in a game, they'd lock it in. This year, when they go up 3-0 in the second, it sends a chill down my spine.
I looked it up, and they've lost 12 games this season where they had a multiple-run lead. I don't know how that compares to other teams, but it sure seems like a lot, more than 1/3 of their 32 total losses.
They've also lost another 3 where they only had a one-run lead.
FWIW, Alzolay at AAA this year: 6g/32IP, 46/6 K/BB, 4HR, 3.09ERA, 0.938WHIP. Considering how silly AAA is this year offensively, that probably makes that line even more impressive.
Edit: Cubs said today chatwood is starting Thursday. Boo.
Two thoughts. First, the Cubs don't really stand out - certainly not to the point that I would have expected or that they did last season. But, also, second, if I remember correctly, the Cubs did this 40 times last season, which was far and away the worst of any non-Orioles team in MLB.
So, it seems like part of the problem of the Cubs only scoring one or two runs a lot is an issue with the way major-league baseball is played in 2019 - which, and I know this makes me a cranky old man, is not a style of baseball that I'm a huge fan of.
And
---
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Heyward
Bote
Lester
Almora
I can't recall if we've seen this exact lineup before, but this is most likely the best lineup they have - or least it's the one I'd like to see the most of. Maybe Joe's accepted CarGo is just a body (maybe not even a warm one at this point).
---
If Happ isn't ready (and a quick glance at the numbers show he isn't), maybe it's just time to release Descalso (or CarGo) and give this guy a shot:
He just happens to be a utility IF; this year across AA/AAA he's hitting .284/.363/.581
Since starting three straight games to start his Cubs tenure, CarGo's only started back-to-back games once.
Descalso needs to go.
the Cubs did this 40 times last season
"This" being 2 or fewer runs ... last year, the Cubs scored 0 or 1 (not 2) 40 times. This year they've scored 0/1 just 8 times. So once every 4 games vs. (so far) once every 9.
Thanks for the correction, Walt. Apparently, I did not remember correctly.
Overall we're hitting 251/336/446 ... RISP we're hitting 243/354/436 ... that's not a lot of difference and we're getting on-base more. Granted, most teams do better RISP than not. Things look even better by "men on" when we hit 271/362/484 compared with 238/317/420 with nobody on. So it's some weirdo thing that happens when guys get to 2nd and 3rd. Which is to say that at 1-- we hit 303/373/541 then, when somebody touches 2nd base, that plummets to that 243/354/436. That's just weird. You expect some drop in BA and power and bump in BB but that looks pretty extreme to me.
It's not Ks, we K a lot more often 1-- (23.3%) than RISP (18.8%). It is HRs -- about 1 per 20 PA vs 1 per 30 PA. We are walking a LOT more with RISP (14.1% vs 8.5%) but everybody does (maybe not to that extent) ... it basically works out that Ks are becoming BBs which can't be a bad thing can it? The last bit suggests maybe there is some relation to our Jekyll-Hyde lineup -- maybe we're too easy to pitch around whether it's to get to a free-swinging (but obviously dangerous) Javy or, most especially, to get to Heyward et al. (Bote's bat should help there but he is a free swinger.) But nearly every team has a Jekyll-Hyde lineup or the top of their lineup is way less Jekyll (Hyde?) than ours to begin with.
So it's frustrating that it's happening for the 2nd year in a row but I still lean towards bad luck rather than something systemic about the approach.
Since we're playing the Sox and we have our ups and downs with Theo's trades .... For the last 28 days, Eloy has hit 277/341/578 thanks to a last 14 days of 361/425/917. A 113 OPS+ overall which would lead all Cubs OF. I'm still OK with that trade but ask me again in 2 years. :-)
And despite that, Rfield hates his defense so much he's below-replacement on the year. Statcast pretty much agrees at -6 OAA in just 24 (non-certain) chances. But boy do they hate Clint Frazier's defense: -10 in just 23 chances.
His only value is in case of injury and there's no real reason to keep such a crappy insurance policy on the major league roster instead of relying on somebody to hand you AAAA filler when need arises. I'm betting that if he weren't signed through 2020 he would already be DFA'ed.
Tim Collins DFA’d, prospect Adbert Alzolay will be recalled Thursday. Will back up Chatwood out of bullpen.
Using him out of the bullpen is a way to control his workload after he missed most of 2018, I guess. But if you want him to provide rotation insurance it seems the better idea to keep him in his routine in Iowa. So I guess the Cubs are thinking he can get a taste of MLB hitters and keep his innings down in case he becomes needed later on.
I am excited for the minor league system to spit out a good pitcher and Alzolay has killed it so far in 2019.
This probably is smart usage for Alzolay; if he's effective right out of the gate, it will be interesting to watch how they manage his innings/workload considering he's been injury prone in addition to not being used to a heavy workload. Cubs don't have a day off for a while, so he also could go up and down if they try to keep fresh arms around.
His only value is in case of injury and there's no real reason to keep such a crappy insurance policy on the major league roster instead of relying on somebody to hand you AAAA filler when need arises. I'm betting that if he weren't signed through 2020 he would already be DFA'ed.
Right, absolutely.
And despite that, Rfield hates his defense so much he's below-replacement on the year. Statcast pretty much agrees at -6 OAA in just 24 (non-certain) chances. But boy do they hate Clint Frazier's defense: -10 in just 23 chances.
So far, Eloy is REALLY BAD in LF. He plays it like people thought fat Schwarber did, but without the arm; it's very clearly already in scouting reports to run on him every chance you get - he's very slow to get the ball in, and I've yet to see him get the ball to the IF on the fly (granted, I haven't seen him a ton, but enough to wonder what's up with it).
---
I think I saw the Cubs were 1 for 7 last night with RISP - that 1 was the grand slam.
Dan Straily and Smyly could form quite the lefty/righty Cub castoff 1-2 punch.
Love at first sight for Elroy, I imagine.
---
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Baez
Contreras
Heyward
CarGo
Chatwood
Descalso
Chatwood is the best hitter in the bottom half-ish of the lineup, discuss.
Bad: 2 CS
At least one of those (the one I saw) was a busted hit and run so not on him.
And sigh ... there's just no reason to give Descalso a start, no matter what hand the pitcher throws with, how hard he is on RHB or how crap he is against LHB. There are two guys who are both better hitters and both better fielders and they are already battling each other for playing time, it makes zero sense. I don't say this sort of thing often but if I was Theo, I'd haul Joe into the office and tell him he's fired if he ever does this again. (Obvious exception if at least one of Bote/Russell is banged up right now.)
This appears to be the 3rd time Descalso has suckered a team into a 2-year guaranteed contract ... and this one the most expensive of the three so obviously Theo deserves the "big" blame here. On the bright side, Descalso's solid years come in his "contract push" years so next year he might be decent. :-)
I mean, no one can even argue that a 49 OPS+ is all that unpredictable - dude somehow managed to put up a .205 BA once while playing with the Rockies.
And I'm surprised this is his third multiyear deal. Must be that magic Cardinal pixie dust from the LDS rally off Drew Storen, where Descalso and Pete Kozma tagteamed to rip the Nats' hearts out. (All due respect to the Cardinals, their pixie dust hasn't really been a thing for several years now.)
Basically, he was throwing all strikes, but nothing hittable until he lost it a little in the 9th. But I was glad Joe sent him back out there to give him a shot at finishing.
I LOVED how quickly he was working, and clearly it annoyed the Mets hitters - both Frazier and Cano really tried to go out of their way to slow him down and it didn't seem to fluster him at all.
Maybe, but I didn't see him getting many calls out of the zone--those borderline pitches were all objectively strikes if you trust the strike zone box graphic. It's probably true that one can't expect all those borderline pitches to be all called strikes consistently, but it seemed to me he was putting the change wherever the hell he wanted it.
Also, don't look now, but the Marlins have just the 3rd worst run differential in the NL (Giants, Pirates).
NL 76-56 vs AL
---
On Happ in Iowa:
Having said that, something has to give here - Cubs 2b are hitting .207/.287/.341, CF are hitting .248/.313/.379, and RF are hitting .255/.345/.415. They can live with 1 or those spots hitting like that (maybe 2, if the defense were ++), but definitely not all 3. Heyward is what he is, and you live with that (begrudgingly) if he's the worst regular bat. Almora isn't cutting it, and neither are Russell or Descalso. And unfortunately, Happ isn't the answer.
---
After yesterday, Hamels has slid ahead/into a tie with Javy for the team lead in bWAR - 3.1. There are also 3 RP in the top 12...
Where would they add? 2B is solved via Bote but I'm not sure they will move on from Russell. Nor am I sure the Cubs are ready to push aside Schwarber or Almora.
2B was an issue last year as well, leading to the brief Murphy stint. Over on regular Primer, I think we've looked around in CF and there's just nothing available, certainly not any that have hit. Almora's bat has crashed and burned but he is that ++ defender and, by bWAR, average overall this year and for his career. If we're not gonna hit, let's play D. Especially since Rfield puts Heyward as pretty bad in CF this year while still pretty good in RF. Even as bad as Almora's bat has been, him in CF and Heyward in RF is still easily our best lineup.
The vague possibilities in CF:
Leury Garcia -- an average bench player for the last 3 years, FA after 2020.
DeShields -- if Tex tanks soon but just an Almora type
Dyson -- if Ariz tanks soon, an Almora type
Among CF (70%) with at least 150 PA this year, Almora is 13th. Those are the only potentially available guys with more WAR/WAA (unless the Pirates want to trade us Marte). The only 3 guys above replacement level behind him are Hamilton, Bradley and Nick Senzel (don't think he's moving). Was Bradley drafted by Theo?
So maybe a corner OF ... Garrett Cooper is a longtime minor-leaguer having a very nice year for Miami so they might want to cash in. Alex Gordon is having a nice year but could turn back into Heyward (in LF) at any moment. I'm sure Trey Mancini can kick the ball into the RF corner with the best of them. Domingo Santana is probably available and having a nice year with the bat and apparently terrible with the glove so below-average. Castellanos is Santana having a worse year with the bat. By this point we're down to Heyward and Almora anyway but there's really nobody interesting and available even as far down as Schwarber. Nomar Mazara maybe (having a good year by his standards but really just a replacement for CarGo ... and again only if Tex falls apart).
Meanwhile 2B just pretty much stinks everywhere. Sogard is having an awesome year for the first time in his career. Bote doesn't qualify for my list but his WAA would put him t7th in MLB (with LaStella natch). I'm not sure Bote can really maintain this but I don't see anybody worth trading for. FWIW, Russell is flashing enough glove that bWAR puts him a bit above-average overall. Probably against LHP, it should be Russell/Baez/Bote with Bryant in RF, Almora in CF.
On the plus side, Schwarber doesn't have a L/R split this year ... on the downside, he's not hitting RHP as well as usual.
But only one day off between now and the AS break -- Friday July 5 of course.
Other quasi-random tidbits ...
Tony Barnette seems like he might be a decent pitcher. He went off to Japan for 6 years, came back to the Rangers in his mid-30s in 2016. He pitched pretty well for them -- 134 ERA+ with a ERA matching his FIP with good (not great) Ks, low BB, low HR. Seems he got hurt last year, I assume is healthy now. All added up to 2.5 WAR, 1.4 WAA over 2.5 seasons. He cost us $750 K and has a $3 M option for next year so might as well find out what we got.
Meanwhile, check out these crazy splits from Javy:
pull 500/1000 (48 PA)
midl 345/661 (110 PA)
away 490/959 (49 PA)
He hit very well away in 2017, crushed it last year and is doing even better this year. The best-ever for a RHB, at least 75 PA the other way ...
Seitzer 1988 1561 OPS
Jose Hernandez 2002 1547 (Javy's twin!)
Ivan Rodrighez 2000 1509
Piazza 1996 1500
Phil Nevin 2000 1489 (wait for it)
Phil Nevin 2001 1418
Julio Franco 1991 1416
ARod 2000 1407
Sosa 2002 1389
Javy 2018 1377
Another reason to comp Javy and Sosa (and Javy and Jose Hernandez).
Phil Nevin loved mid-sillyball -- a 243 hitter from 1995-99, he hit over 300 both of these years and 295 from 2000-2004 overall.
Hmmmm, maybe going the other way is a winning strategy for guys with great batspeed but a poor batting eye. If you have the power to do it that extra microsecond of time might make the difference. It needs more data of course.
*I don't know if Bote can keep this up or not, but he's surely earned the right to prove it. To my eye, his defense is good at 2b, so let's see him play damn near every day for a couple of weeks. It might also be time to AAA Russell or IL Descalso and give Robel Garcia a look see (non-prospect, but back from overseas and now hitting .294/.375/.606 with 19HR between AA/AAA this year; he's striking out a LOT in AAA, so there might not be anything there, but maybe you catch a hot streak; EDIT: Sharma wrote about him today).
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Last night I think we saw the downside of overexcited Willy. Not that anything bad happened, but it sure seemed like he was asking for it. In the 2nd, there was a shot of Donaldson stepping out of the box and shhhhing the Cubs dugout; the pitch before Willy's HR, he was complaining to the ump (huge, huge zone all night) and looks like Flowers said something/laughed to/at Willy; then Willy says something to Flowers right after he hits/again after he gets home. Willy does appear to be a bit of an #######; you could see him telling the dugout about everything after the HR and he was still fired up but everyone else was laughing. He's lucky he didn't get hit last night (not sure there was an AB that made sense to put him on from the Braves' perspective), but I'm pretty sure he will and maybe it's a good thing he'll at least have a day to cool off.
Reading between the lines he's a guy who destroys fastballs but the Cubs are unsure about his ability to handle breaking stuff. So that's probably what he has to do in AAA in order to leapfrog Descalso. It would be a great story if a makes it to MLB and I suspect he's in line for a September promotion if nothing else.
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