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Gonfalon Cubs — Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans Wednesday, September 05, 2018The Final Push24 games to go. Cubs still have 8 games left on this 23 straight day stretch, but only 2 more real road trips - DC this weekend and and Phoenix in a couple of weeks; the only other road games are today in Milwaukee and 3 at The Cell. A 3 game lead is far from comfortable, especially after the way the last 2 games played out, but a win today and leaving with a 4 game lead with 23 left is still quite the enviable position. The Cubs went 18-10 in September, and are 10-4 in their last 14, but 2 back to back tough losses make it seem worse. Of course, how they lost echo the problems they’ve had throughout the year. The offense looked helpless against a couple of guys they look like they should beat up; add that to a pathetic bullpen collapse and tons of walks allowed and it adds up to losses that seem more predictive than their recent wins. The unexpected part of yesterday’s loss was the way the defense looked absolutely pathetic. A lot of that was Russell, and to be fair to him he’s pretty rusty and probably still hurt. Without a rehab assignment, his only chance to play is up here. He hasn’t looked anywhere near ready in the field or at the plate, but I understand they have to get him PT because it’s not really an option to leave him off the playoff roster (unless he’s more hurt than they’re letting on). I complained a bit in the game chatter about Contreras’s catching yesterday. I understand and completely agree this is a non-problem if we had robot umps, but since that isn’t happening yet it’s becoming a pretty big concern for me. It’s not just that he’s bad on getting close balls called as strikes, it’s that he gets so many close strikes - clear strikes - called as balls. I feel like he’s actually gotten worse as the season has gone on; I know this is something they talked about a lot during spring training and how much he works on it, but game after game it’s contributing to higher pitch counts for so many different pitchers. Then last night he had multiple passed balls where he tried to backhand or scoop a ball instead of blocking it. He’s also still in his extended slump - .202/.298/.275 since 8/1. The Cubs don’t have another option (though I do find it interesting Caratini has been catching Hamels quite a bit lately; last 4 starts), but he needs to get straightened out soon. It might be about time to assume Morrow isn’t coming back. It’s been almost a week since I’ve seen anything on him, and even that was him still just throwing from flat ground. With him out, the bullpen doesn’t feel anything like a strength. While Strop has been good, he still has his moments - and it’s worth noting he’s been pretty invisible in the playoff mix the last few years. Edwards is still very much a mess, and was a total mess last postseason. Wilson has been a lot better this year, but there’s still a ton of risk with him. Cishek looks to be in a bad stretch, or maybe he’s just tired. Chavez has been amazing with the Cubs - 25.2IP, 1.05ERA, 31k/2bb - but he has a long enough history that I’m weary to think something special is going on. All that being said, the rotation has been very good lately. Hamels looks like a legit ace again, Hendricks has regained his form, and neither Lester or Quintana are the worst 3/4 starters you’ll find on a playoff team. The offense still hasn’t had more than a couple of games with the main regulars healthy - none if you want to include Murphy is this group because Heyward went out right before Bryant came back - but is still incredibly deep and dangerous. In spite of last night, the Cubs still have a great defense (though again, Murphy hurts that) and are a great baserunning team. So, I guess, buckle up and enjoy the ride? Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington
Posted: September 05, 2018 at 10:27 AM | 346 comment(s)
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I hope that the people in your life aren't as quick to judge you by the stupidest thing you ever did as a teenager as you seem to be, and those of us who are in our 30s and 40s (and older) are all probably very glad that Twitter didn't exist back then. We made our off-color and totally offensive and unforgivable jokes (like virtually all teenage boys do, in locker rooms and on athletic fields and in parents' basements huddled around a copy of Playboy or a late night Cinemax movie) into thin air where they dissipated into the winds of history.
People are so quick to condemn for life any athlete, politician, celebrity, etc. over stuff they did when they were young. Might be nice to see a little tolerance and forgiveness practiced by those who seem so eager to remind us all what terrible people human beings make, particularly human beings who are still trying to find the owner's manual to help them figure out how life works.
(I don't give two shits about Josh Hader one way or the other except as pertains to his ability to knock the Cubs out of the postseason, but this stuff just makes me so sad. We'll never again be able to have a conversation about Josh Hader the pitcher without people gleefully showing up, schadenfreude on full display, to remind us that Josh Hader the teenager fell below our chosen moral standards.)
Here's the thing: As prone as I was to saying dumb stuff, I never, ever in a million years would have said "Yay KKK!" or "I hate gay people" or use the slurs that Hader apparently did. I did write an op-ed arguing against gays and lesbians serving openly in the military, which was one of the dumb things I regret. If my high school classmates who haven't seen me since then think I'm still that guy, well, I understand. But praising the KKK? That's well beyond "dumb teenage stuff."
As far as forgiveness, that's not mine to give. Hader hasn't wronged me personally, and he certainly doesn't care what I think of him. But it's also not my obligation to be fine with him when he hasn't really addressed the issue at any substantive level. Hader didn't say anything about why and how he has supposedly "evolved" since then - all he did was say that's no longer him and apologize to his teammates. I don't doubt that the apology was sincere, and I would be willing to believe he has evolved, I'm just OK with holding out for more evidence and explanation than "My teammates are cool with me, even the minority ones."
That said, it was a poor choice for a flippant comment on my part.
Which probably sets the Cubs up to play the second-best NL playoff team in the first round. Both the Brewers and Dodgers scare me. I'm more confident that the Cubs are better than the Brewers and I would expect the Cubs to be favored in any NL playoff matchup they have. But not by so much that it would be a shocking upset for the Brewers to beat the Cubs in a best-of-five series.
As for the Dodgers, when they acquired Machado, everybody was talking about how the Dodgers were now clearly the best team in the National League. They haven't played like it, obviously, but all they have to do is put it all together for a week and the Cubs season could go poof.
All that said, man, it's nice to see the Cubs bats finally waking up a bit here the last couple of nights. Last night was as fun a Cubs game as I can remember watching in at least a week, probably longer.
As I write this, the Cubs are up 9-1. There's a happy thought we can all get behind.
Assuming they close out the division - this will be the first time in their history the Cubs have won three consecutive division titles (they won the NL three consecutive times 1906-1908)
One more win - and it's the first time since 1904-1912 that they've won 90+ games in four consecutive seasons.
This is already the first time since 1966-1972 that they've posted 4 consecutive .500+ seasons.
It will be the first time in franchise history that they've gone to the playoffs 4 consecutive seasons.
Pretty amazing stuff by this org -- especially when you consider the disastrous EJax, Darvish, Chatwood signings... and the problems with Heyward, Morrow, etc :-)
2007, 2008.
Moses 96
Kiko 102
Man o'Schwar 100
Zonk 100
Dag Nabbit 97
McCoy 94
Trout! 95
TomH 92
Pops 96
Spahn 96
Voodoo 101
Meatwad 105
Walt 97
Andere 96
Quaker 98
The average of that rounds off to 98 -- to win 98 the Cubs need to go 9-2 from here on out. Probably overshot it (again).
Less biased sources said:
Fangraphs: 94 (5-6 remaining; now forecasting 95.3)
Bleacher Report: 93 (4-7)
PECOTA: 91 (2-9)
Fivethirtyeight: 95 (6-5; today they still forecast 95)
ZiPS: 94 (5-6)
95-96 looks like the best prediction to me (winning 6 or 7 out of 11) against D-Backs (1 on road), White Sox (3 at whatever they call Comiskey now), and then the Pirates (4 at Wrigley) and Cardinals (3 at Wrigley). It would be nice to enter next weekend's Cards series having clinched...
Cubs: .478 (1 ARI (R), 3 CHW (R*), 4 PIT (H), 3 STL (H))
Brewers: .468 (1 CIN (H), 3 PIT (R), 3 STL (R), 3 DET** (H))
Cardinals: .510 (1 ATL (R), 3 SFG (H), 3 MIL (R), 3 CHC (R))
*Cubs return to Chicago tomorrow and stay there for the remainder of the regular season.
**Whoever came up with this year's scheduling needs to be sacked.
We probably won't see that again in our lifetimes.
Indeed. It's really hard to be in the NLCS three times in two seasons.
Keep hope alive!
Heh - it's not impossible... After tonight, they finally get a day off -- then it's just the White Sox and Pirates and Cards...
It looks quite likely that the Cardinals will be playing for something that final series, but if they either rip off 7-8 straight or fall apart and drop a bunch and it's meaningless?
I'm heading out to Chicago to catch next Saturday's game so I wouldn't mind the Cubs getting a chance to crush their playoff dreams that weekend.
Written in Stone Locks (16)
IF: Javy, Bryant, Murphy, Rizzo, Contreras, Caratini
OF: Heyward, Zobrist
SP: Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana (that's the order I'd throw them in the playoffs)
RP: Cishek, Wilson, Chavez, Montgomery
Almost a lock, but... (2)
Schwarber, Strop: Once they're back playing, they move up to the top group
Should be, but can make an argument for why they shouldn't. Only 4 of these guys will make it unless the Cubs take a 7 man pen. I think that's unlikely, so which guy gets left out? (5)
LaStella: Probably will be there as the main PH, but since that's all he does I could imagine a situation where he got squeezed. Not likely though.
Almora: A lock to start against a LHP, and to finish games in CF. Like TLS, hard to see him not there.
Russell: I'd like to see a little more from his bat, and he's had some weird hiccups defensively. Again, probably will be there, but I could make a good argument that he's not worth bringing if he isn't worth using as a PH too
Bote: He can play SS, not as good as Russell. He's scuffling a bit hitting lately, but don't you feel better with him as a PH than Russell?
Happ: He's kind of in a similar boat as the previous 2 guys. He doesn't have a position he excels at defensively, but his versatility is his key. Also not really an ideal PH guy, and there isn't really a matchup where you'd start him over any of the locks. So he could miss the cut.
Pick 4 of your poison, assuming 8 man pen
Edwards
Rosario
De La Rosa
Maples
Bass
Mills
Kintzler
Duensing
Garcia
Norwood
Chatwood
I'd probably go with the first 4 there, but I'm still mostly wishcasting with Maples. Give him a handful more shots, and see if he takes it. I'm not sure why Bass hasn't been back up (well, he's not on the 40 man, but now there's a spot if they move Morrow to the 60 day DL), but he's been the best of the up and down guys all year. Mills would be another fine fall back long shot type, but he's not really getting any chances. I don't want anything to do with the bottom 5, though I suspect Kintzler will be given multiple changes to unfail back into a spot.
Wildcard
Gore: If you want to leave a 2nd position player off or go with a 7 man pen (I don't think they will), there's a really good argument for bringing Gore along. He's a pretty useful weapon off the bench for a close game.
I think Bass is on the 60-day DL. No idea with what, but I assume he's not an option.
Not a lot to disagree with you on here. Assuming Schwarber and Strop are healthy enough to make the team, I'd probably go
C - Contreras, Caratini
IF - Rizzo, Murphy, Baez, Bryant, LaStella, Russell
OF - Schwarber, Zobrist, Almora, Heyward
SP (in this order) - Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana
LRP - Montgomery, Rosario, De La Rosa, Wilson
RRP - Cishek, Edwards, Chavez, Strop
That's 24. I might seriously lean toward Gore over Happ and Bote. If Bote starts hitting a bit more again, I might also lean toward Bote over Russell, but it's awfully nice to be able to run out an infield of Bryant - Russell - Baez - Rizzo to close out games.
If that's the way it shakes out, I feel bad for Ian Happ. He's been on the team all season; hell, he hit the first pitch of the season for a home run. He's fourth on the team in games played. But I feel like all of his potential roles are better filled by others. Maybe Happ over LaStella; as a switch-hitter, he's guaranteed the platoon advantage as a pinch hitter and he basically matches LaStella's OBP with a lot more power. Actually, looking it up, Happ has surprisingly good numbers as a PH - career OBP of .422 with an OPS over 1.000 - even better in 2018 (.333/.462/.667 in 26 PA) than in 2017. Yeah, I've convinced myself: I'd keep Happ over LaStella.
No, Hancock is on the 60 day DL. Bass went on the 15 day DL, and then after he was healthy the Cubs DFA'd him because he doesn't have any options; he cleared waivers and has been pitching in Iowa.
That's 24. I might seriously lean toward Gore over Happ and Bote. If Bote starts hitting a bit more again, I might also lean toward Bote over Russell, but it's awfully nice to be able to run out an infield of Bryant - Russell - Baez - Rizzo to close out games.
Remember, Bote can play 2b and is a decent defender there. Russell SS/Javy 2b is better than Javy SS/Bote (or Zo) 2b, but enough to justify carrying Russell's non-bat over Bote or Happ or TLS?
Speaking of:
It wasn't always pretty, but damn if overall that's pretty good and probably better than we should have expected. Cubs lineup isn't up yet, but I could also see the Cubs going with a getaway day type lineup. (Also, Cain is out for the Brewers as he left hurt last night)
It wasn't always pretty, but damn if overall that's pretty good and probably better than we should have expected. Cubs lineup isn't up yet, but I could also see the Cubs going with a getaway day type lineup. (Also, Cain is out for the Brewers as he left hurt last night)
I am genuinely surprised by those numbers. The Cubs sure felt like they were a .500 team in that stretch and played some of their most miserable baseball.
We are getting spoiled by success.
Absolutely. It felt like the Brewers have been hotter than the Cubs during that span, too, but the Cubs actually were only up 2.5 games when it started. +1 during that is pretty good.
----
Not as getawayy as I thought:
Almora
Bryant LF
Rizzo
Javy 2b
Zobrist RF
Contreras
Bote 3b
Hamels
Russell
Uh, ok.
As much fun as it would be to clinch against the Cards, I'd like it to happen before then. Unfortunately, the Cubs can't clinch at the Cell on Hawk today, that might have been the best result.
I heard you allude to that in the chatter the other day. The Cubs went 2-1 there in 2017 , 3-1 in 2016, and 1-2 in 2015. They were 0-3 in 2014, but they were a bad team then.
Except for Braun, of course. F*ck that guy.
I also wouldn't be opposed to them moving on from him this offseason.
I agree that it's the recent teams that are germane to the discussion, but the Cubs had a franchise record of 25-44 playing in Phoenix prior to 2015. Their overall road record (31-48) against Arizona is their worst win percentage (.392) against any NL team. So their history there (short as it's been) has been pretty bad.
Bryant
Rizzo
Javy SS
Zobrist LF
Heyward
Caratini
Schwarber DH
Almora
Was gonna say "Are you guys crazy? The way he's played - his value is so low..."
But yeah, I see.
#### him. Sit him for the year and make plans for Javy at SS next year so far as I'm concerned.
I mentioned the CBA stuff because the league "investigated" this last year after his ex's friend posted something. They never announced anything, and she didn't cooperate.
There's a longer MLB statement, but it isn't copy/paste-able yet.
I'm reading between the lines here and just assuming he's not coming back this year.
Not well, but well enough so far as I'm concerned.
I imagine Zobrist would be dreadfully ugly there nowadays, but I'm perfectly willing to hope Javy doesn't get dinged until next spring.
Your concern trolling and jinx-attempting bolded above are duly noted. (I kid. Welcome to the blog.)
Seriously, the Cubs are in the driver's seat for the division title, but it ain't over yet. And a best of 5 against the Brewers in the LDS, which is IMO the most likely matchup, is worrisome in any case.
Happ really hasn't played there this year (3 innings total, across 2 games), so not sure if that means they don't like him there. I'm fine going into next year with 2b being a platoon situation with Zobrist/Bote/Happ/TLS, knowing that it might be a spot to upgrade in season. Unless of course there's a good FA fit that I'm not thinking of right now. I'm not really interested in resigning Murphy to be the full time 2b, but I guess there's a price out there where it could make sense.
The Cubs could go after Machado as the plan for SS, moving Javy back to 2b.
So not much really was said, but I think it's significant the Cubs had Theo/Ricketts addressing this. Reading between the lines again, I don't see how they let him come back. Then again,
With Machado's D numbers? I'd rather see Machado at 2B.
Mentioned in the other thread, but Zack Short is at least worth a sniff... He's in no way ready to start - but it's not out of the realm he could be an option next season as an AAA-MLB shuttle utility IF. Like Happ - he's a guy who would BB a ton and K a ton, but he's got some pop and is good enough defensively to function as a backup/the sort you could live with for a week or two.
Chesny Young is more of a 2B - but he's played a bit of SS.
Aramis Ademan had an awful year at Myrtle Beach - but the Cubs were super-aggressive (probably too aggressive) in skipping South Bend with him... He's just 19.
There's also this year's top pick, Nico Hoerner - he only played about 20 games this year, of course, but he'll likely start 2019 at high A.
They'll need another MI this offseason, but not desperately so. I agree with Spahn - no reason not to just let Happ win the job.
Cobble together some kind of Bote/Short/Young utility shuttle and just recognize that having two true SS's is a luxury most teams don't have - and that if Baez gets hurt, you're going to need to trade for something.
I agree that they were too aggressive, especially because I could have seen him had they not done this.
Russell is currently off the roster, but I'm not sure what the Cubs can do with that spot, other than adding Mike Freeman to the 40-man and having him on the postseason roster as the backup SS. Going from Russell, even the 2018 version, to Mike Freeman is less than ideal. If they can do it, I would expect a trade this week.
They can make a trade to have a guy around for the last 10 games of the regular season, but a player has to be in the organization (not necessarily on the 40-man roster, certainly not on the big-league team, but somewhere in the organization) before September 1st, though, to be eligible for the postseason.
No, see what I said in post 121. The Cubs were likely going to be 4 of Bote, TLS, Happ, Almora, and Russell (with Gore as a wild card). This makes that decision easy for the Cubs. Like Kiko said, there's no getting another SS on the postseason roster besides Freeman (nor should they feel the need to, IMO), but I have no interest in him over any of those guys, including Gore.
Now the bottom of the bullpen...after today, not sure I want to see Maples or Rosario anywhere near the roster.
---
Russell is digging in, by the way:
I'm not at all saying I believe him, but it's one thing to say you'll let the process play out, and a completely different thing to categorically deny it. If there's even a smidge of corroborating evidence out there for his ex's story, he's made it much worse for himself.
I guess there's no harm in this.
Walt 97
The important thing was my prediction that Schwarber would have more steals than Bryant. Kyle currently leads 4-2 and with more SB than CS. Hard to see Joe giving Bryant the green light repeatedly in the last week.
**Whoever came up with this year's scheduling needs to be sacked.
With 15 teams per league, there has to be at least one IL series every time. With 5 teams per division, there has to be at least one team per division playing outside the division every time. That these will sometimes be contenders is unavoidable. About all you could do is institute a constraint that the last place finisher in each division from the previous year will be the final week set every time. This year that would have included the A's and Phils (who looked like contenders 4 weeks ago).
I still think they'll be fine offensively.
Not sure I care the exact order the top 3 in the rotation are, but quintana is the least reliable and clear 4th guy at the moment.
Zobrist 2b
Javy ss
Rizzo
Almora
Bote 3b
Contreras
Schwarber LF
Happ RF
The Pirates have been solid, winning 7/last 10, and 17/30. Of course, they lost two out of three to the Brewers over the weekend.
The Cubs are 8-7 this season against the Pirates.
Probable pitching matchups:
Monday, 24Sep: Taillon against Hamels
Tuesday, 25Sep: Archer against Montgomery
Wednesday, 26Sep: Nova against Quintana
Thursday, 27Sep: Williams against Lester
The Pirates face the full Cubs lefty onslaught here, and they have fared poorly against lefty starters this season (19-25, as opposed to 59-51 against righties). But I don't take that seriously: Pirate hitters overall don't seem to have much of a split.
The Cubs hit the best of the Pirates rotation, catching Taillon, Williams and Nova. So, the Cubs have their work cut out for them in this series -- they're going to be the favorites in each of these games but there are no easy matchups.
This leaves the Brewers fighting it out on the road against the Cardinals, who remain in the Division mix (4.5 GB) after sweeping the Giants over the weekend. The Brewers are 8-8 against the Cardinals this season.
Those probable pitching matchups:
Monday, 24Sep: TBD against Flaherty
Tuesday, 25Sep: Gonzalez against Gomber
Wednesday, 26Sep: Chacin against Gant
I think there are plenty of data that support that. They've been a pretty good offensive team for four years now, and we have seen quite a bit of waxing and waning over cherry-picked start- and endpoints. It's fair to say that they have been underperforming for the last couple of months, but one shouldn't ignore what happened before that.
Absolutely. Even with that 2nd half, the Cubs are still 1st in the NL in BA and OBP, and 6th in SLG and 3rd in OPS. There also will be fewer ABs taken by the bottom of the roster - guys Maddon rotates in every day to stay sharp and rest for the playoffs. Come playoff time, the Cubs are likely starting Schwarber/Heyward/Zobrist/Bryant/Baez/Murphy/Rizzo/Contreras, with Almora giving either Schwarber or Heyward the day off against a tough lefty.
It's likely that Bryant isn't Bryant this run, but at a reduced effectiveness he's still better than Happ and Russell.
That's not exactly murderers row at this point. Perhaps they'll be the grind it out professional hitters that say the Indians were in the playoffs and be tough outs but at this point that's a lot of averagish production out of a lineup that is going to have to face and get by three buzzsaw pitching staffs to win it all.
Listed as calf tightness with no further mention, so I would guess he's fine.
I think I'd go: Hendricks, Hamels, Lester & Q.
I'm with this, but I could see Joe swapping Lester and Hamels, maybe even slotting Jon in the game 1 role. But to me Hendricks is our clear #1 and I'm expecting some big outings from him next month.
I had been thinking alphabetical - i.e., Hamels, Hendricks, Lester, Quintana. But, yeah, I think Hendricks has pushed himself up to #1. Fun fact: Kyle Hendricks has been the starting pitcher in the final game of the last three playoff series that the Cubs have won. Unfortunately, it's harder to plan for who pitches the FINAL game of a series than it is to figure out who pitches Game 1.
It's an interesting playoff rotation - I feel like any of the four could give you a stellar start when you need one... and any of them - excepting maybe Hendricks, who seems to have found his groove - could crap the bed.
I suppose any time you're talking postseason series - you'd much rather than that sort of Schilling/Johnson duo, but absent that - four guys you'd be fine with taking their regular (postseason) turns isn't half bad.
Agreed. Until Hendricks recently rediscovered his inner Maddux I would've flipped him and Hamels.
That said--am I nuts for thinking Montgomery should be considered for the 4th starter spot in place of Q? (I mean, they won't do it, particularly given Montgomery's potentially huge importance as a swingman if a starter craps the bed, but I don't honestly have any less confidence in him than I do in Quintana at the moment.)
I feel like he's started giving Hendricks a bit more leeway lately. Part of that is, I think, my grudgingly getting used to the fact that it's not a Maddon thing to pull your starters in the 5th or 6th inning; it's a general baseball thing. But Hendricks pitched into the 9th and 8th innings of his last two starts - which, granted, weren't in the playoffs or against playoff-caliber teams.
That said, Hendricks is definitely the starter that Joe is most likely to pinch hit for early in a close game where he's pitching well. Although, to be fair to Joe, Hendricks is a terrible, terrible hitter (career batting average of .092; OPS of .221).
Come October this bullpen is going to take years off my life; like Christopher Guest's machine in The Princess Bride.
Murphy
Zobrist RF
Javy
Rizzo
Schwarber
Bryant 3b
Heyward CF
Hamels
Caratini
Contreras caught Hamels last time out, and we all saw how that went. Otherwise Caratini is starting to look like a Hamels whisperer.
So, do we think that Caratini is Hamels's personal catcher come playoff time, too? I assume that the idea of having Contreras catch Hamels last time out was to get them familiar with each other under the expectation that Contreras would catch every playoff game. But if Hamels bounces back tonight with a quality start does that convince Maddon that there's something special there that needs to stay intact through the playoffs?
Weren't there only like 2 relievers Maddon trusted by the end of the 2016 postseason? He still pulled Lester after 6, Arrieta after 5.2 (after a two-out, bases empty walk with a 5-run lead) and, famously, Hendricks after 4.2 (after a two-out, bases empty walk with a 4-run lead) in the last three games of the World Series.
Which is to say, I'll believe it when I see it.
Frazier
Reyes
Bell
Cervelli
Dickerson
Osuna
Luplow
Newman
Taillon
It is all a bit weird in the pythag sense though. Their 2nd half run differential is just +2. Their road differential is a solid +80 but the home differential is just +36 -- 20 games over on a +36 is pretty mindblowing. You'd think this might be something like we don't score much at home but we've got 46 games with 7+ RS, 22 at home, 24 on the road; we have 51 scoring 2 or fewer, 23 at home, 28 on the road. Even just 26 of 49 1-run games have been at home. Of 50 games resulting in a blowout (run differential 5+), 24 of 50 have been at home.
Anyway, maybe that +36 run differential at home explains our anxiety -- we win a lot but it must be a lot of close 2-3 run wins ... which are also games where Joe's more likely to get "creative" which probably increases our angst.
Pythag isn't as accurate in home/road splits. You get to bat in the ninth when you're winning on the road, but not at home; that skews the run differential to an extent (especially for a good team that will miss the bottom of the ninth more often, and especially because you wouldn't be facing the other team's best reliever when you're already ahead).
Looking at that in more detail, the Cubs have had 7 WO wins, which means that in 13 of their wins they didn't bat in the bottom of the 9th. Given their runs scoring rate, that's about 7 missing runs. of the walk off wins, they had the following base/out situations when the winning run scored:
Bases empty, 2 outs
1st and 2nd, 0 outs.
Bases loaded, 1 out
Bases empty, 1 out
Bases empty 2 outs
Bases empty 1 out
Bases loaded, 1 out.
based on run expectancy tables, that's about another 5 runs
So, adding 12 more runs makes their adjusted home run diff +48
Yankees: 53-28 (+101) at home, 42-32 (+61) on the road
A's: 50-31 (+59) at home, 44-31 (+73) on the road
Cubs: 47-27 (+36) at home, 44-37 (+80) on the road
Brewers: 48-30 (+49) at home, 41-37 (+20) on the road
Braves: 43-38 (+34) at home, 45-30 (+67) on the road
Cards: 43-35 (+16) at home, 44-34 (+71) on the road
Dodgers: 44-37 (+66) at home, 43-32 (+107) on the road
Indians: 49-32 (+109) at home, 38-36 (+47) on the road
Rays: 48-26 (+102) at home, 39-42 (-17) on the road
Overall records including the Cubs are 805-595, +1081 run differential; +5.15 RD per game over .500. In home games, they're 141 games over .500 and +572; in road games, 69 over and +509. So the Cubs are somewhat more skewed than would be expected (I'm having trouble thinking through how I want to put the numbers together in a way that makes sense), which is roughly what Walt is saying in 1987 anyway.
which is roughly what Walt is saying in 1987 anyway. I know I'm a bit old-fashioned but not quite 30 years out of date!
Based on that, I proposed a guy like Soriano as a good #3 hitter. In addition to the HRs (self-generated offense), he also hit a lot of doubles, not a lot of singles but could steal a base when he did single/walk and of course, with 2 outs, his Ks wouldn't matter. In short, when he didn't homer, he could still get himself into scoring position all on his own. (Note, that's really an argument he's a good option for 2 outs nobody on, he may not actually be such a great options in other situations so he could still be a lousy #3 option.)
And of course we have the current Soriano in Javy. In addition to his 34 HRs, he's got 38 doubles and 9 triples, leaving just 87 singles and 19 unintentional walks ... which would be aided by his 21 steals plus speed to score from first on a double. So #3 might be the best spot for him even if he may be our best hitter.
Kinda feels like at minimum, they're gonna need to split this series and then either sweep or win the series against St. Louis. Milwaukee's playing like a team that's primed to roll through October, and they get to play one of the worst teams in baseball to close it out. Cubs are gonna have to stop relying on the Brewers to lose and, ya know, score some runs.
I'm guilty of making the 2004 comparison, much to the dismay of our resident optimist, but I don't think they're that similar.
If the Cubs do complete the slide and end up needing to win the WC game, then yes, both this team and the 2004 iterations will share an aura of disappointing results. Still, despite what we may recall, the 2004 team didn't squander a WC lead so much as they were just unable to keep pace with a stacked Houston team.
This team has somehow compiled 90+ wins despite the injuries and disappointing seasons from pretty much everyone who's not Javy Baez or Ben Zobrist. The '04 team basically let the absence of Wood and Prior for chunks of the season serve as an excuse to under-perform.
As I've said in the chatters, this month has been excruciating. They've played a grueling schedule and quite frankly, they look like the tank is on E. It's similar to how they appeared in the NLCS last year. They may still pull out the division, but man, they're quite the battered mess right now.
Definitely the impression I'm getting. I think having 1 day off in the last 41 days is coming back to bite them.
Runs scored per game:
March - 6.33 (19/3)
April - 4.96 (114/23)
May - 5.33 (144/27)
June - 4.71 (132/28)
July - 4.88 (122/25)
August - 4.04 (113/28)
September - 3.78 (87/23)
Well, maybe it isn't fair to blame all their offensive woes on the prolonged stretch with hardly any time off. They were struggling offensively a little before then, too.
They went 18-10 in August because their pitching was pretty good (and because they exceeded their pythag).
Based on monthly splits (which B-ref hasn't yet updated to include yesterday's shutout), only 2 guys on the roster have a September OPS over 800: Kyle Schwarber (1182 in 34 PA) and Javier Baez (851 OPS).
OPS for guys from Sept. 1 to Sept. 24, among guys who played in at least 10 games:
1182 Schwarber
851 Baez
770 Rizzo
756 Bryant
754 Murphy
733 Happ
720 Zobrist
592 Catrini
569 Bote
552 La Stella
445 Contreras
427 Almora
377 Russell
Their September team OPS is 658, 11th in the NL. Their August OPS (728) ranked 10th.
In August, only four guys topped 710 (Rizzo, Baez, Zobrist, Schwarber).
And in related news, USA Today: Joe Maddon's Addison Russell comments show that baseball has much to learn on domestic abuse.
They lost 7 of their last 9 (including 3 of 4 at home to a bad Reds team, and two road losses to an even worse Mets team) to blow a 2.5 lead over the Astros and a 1.5 lead over the Giants. Yes, the Astros played lights out in the second half that year, but I think that qualifies as "squandering." (Impressively, the Cubs not only blew that 2.5 lead to Houston during that 9-game stretch--they ended up three games behind them [and two behind the Giants].)
I'm thinking losing 5.5 and 3.5 games to two rival playoff contenders in the span of 9 games without any head-to-head matchups with either of them is kind of hard to do, actually.
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