Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Gonfalon Cubs > Discussion
Gonfalon Cubs
— Cubs Baseball for Thinking Fans

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 01:47 PM (#3492935)
And now for the dose of realism:

1. Alfonso Soriano will have a bounce-back year and will be healthy and useful all season.

Probably 50/50 chance on this overall. Health of course is a crapshoot, and I think "useful" isn't asking much.

2. Derrek Lee will have a great contract season and the Cubs would be foolish not to resign him.

50/50, but only on the "great contract season" part. I think a long-term/big money commitment to Lee is very unlikely to be good for the Cubs.

3. Aramis Ramirez will finally have that MVP-type season.

Depends on what you mean by "MVP type". If it means lots of HR and RBI, then I'd put it in the 20% chance area. Actually deserving an MVP? <5%.

4. Ryan Theriot will hit over .300, walk a fair amount, and will be the best leadoff hitter in the NL Central.

15% chance. I think he's too slow now for .300 to be very likely. Being best leadoff hitter in the division is more likely.

5. The Mike Fontenot/Jeff Baker platoon at 2nd will outperform Skip Schumaker.

50/50

6. Marlon Byrd will have the best season for a Cubs CF since the Patterson/Lofton combo in 2003.

So that means he has to beat out, what, Edmonds and Crap from 2008? I'll put that one at 70%.

7. The combo of Fukudome/Nady in RF (after Nady’s arm heals faster than expected) will provide above average production for RF.

30%? I could see Fukudome finally blossoming this year.

8. Geovany Soto’s new weight loss will be the key in his return to his rookie of the year form.

Very hard to predict, but I'll go with 25%.

9. Carlos Zambrano will finally shut up and just pitch brilliantly this season.

<5%. I think it's more than just being a loudmouth.

10. Ryan Dempster will remain an underrated workhorse and submit another year worthy of his contract.

75%? He has been a very pleasant surprise.

11. Randy Wells will prove to be no fluke, and will be one of the best 4th starters in the league.

85%. I don't think he's a fluke, and one of the best 4th starters is a very low bar.

12. Tom Gorzelanny will recapture the form that made him one of the better young starters in baseball with the Pirates.

25%. I think he had some lucky years with the Pirates.

13. Carlos Silva will walk a very thin tightrope between effective and disasterous until Lilly comes back (sorry, that’s as optimistic as I get with him).

50%. With the remaining 50% being split between better and worse than that prediction.

14. Ted Lilly will come back quicker than expected and will pick up where he left off last year, giving the Cubs one of the best staffs 1-5 in all of baseball.

40%. I think "one of the best staffs" is more likely though.

15. Carlos Marmol will become a dominant closer.

30%. He could be a saves monster, but he gives up too many walks to be among the true, consistent elite.

16. Esmailin Caridad will step right in and replicate Angel Guzman’s production from last season.

30%. I like him, but it's always hard to count on a young reliever.

17. John Grabow will be the most effective Cubs LH reliever since Scott Eyre in 2006.

50%. Again with the tallest midget.

18. Jeff Samardzija will start to show why Jim Hendry gave him so much money.

10%, and only because a reliever can easily have a fluke season.

19. Sean Marshall will continue to be one of the most effective swing men in the game.

75%. You know what you're getting with Sean Marshall.

20. Tyler Colvin will be a pleasant surprise and provide a decent bat and good defense off the bench.

50%. Hard to predict what a bench guy will do, but sure, this is reasonable.

21. Chad Tracy will finally hit will against a team besides the Cubs.

80%. The sample sizes pretty much assure it, unless he does so badly early that he's cast off.

22. Starlin Castro will have an awesome year in the minors, but because the current MI will be so solid the Cubs won’t rush him to the bigs too soon.

20%. The "current MI will be so solid" part is what sinks the prediction. The rest is far more likely.

23. Josh Vitters will take another huge step forward in the minors this season.

50%? Levelling off or a slight bounce back would not be a terrible sign.

24. Micah Hoffpauir will absolutely destroy AAA pitching and will force his way back onto the roster by mid-summer.

75%. Staying on the major league team, however...

25. Lou Pineilla will be inspired and will ride off into the sunset after leading the Cubs to their first pennant in 65 years.

<5%, but it's not worth worrying about that at this point.
   2. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 01:52 PM (#3492939)
Oh, and here's my prediction for the season:

83-79, third place in the NL Central. 20% chance of winning 90 games.
   3. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 05, 2010 at 01:57 PM (#3492941)
So that optimism lasted what, an hour?
   4. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 02:01 PM (#3492946)
You asked!
   5. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 05, 2010 at 03:08 PM (#3492990)
I just can't win with you guys. Last one was too negative, this one too positive.

Obviously, the truth is somewhere in the middle, but I've covered all my bases and will be able to claim being right no matter what happens.

2. Derrek Lee will have a great contract season and the Cubs would be foolish not to resign him.

50/50, but only on the "great contract season" part. I think a long-term/big money commitment to Lee is very unlikely to be good for the Cubs.


I actually agree that no matter what, the Cubs should be careful signing him to a new deal. I mean there will be pressure from the media/fans to resign him. So that's not necessarily me saying they'd be foolish to let him walk, but that's moreso the storyline.
   6. SteveM. Posted: April 05, 2010 at 03:19 PM (#3493003)
Other then the bullpen, I am pretty bullish about the season. I believe Silva will only be in the rotation for a few weeks and that he will be on waivers by June. And I think Colvin by the end of the season will have stolen the RF job.
   7. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 03:52 PM (#3493045)
Silva's going to throw strikes, so his success or lack thereof is going to depend on his DiPS luck and/or how well he can consistently spot his pitches and not overwhelm his defense with base hits. His history does not portend well for him, but you never know. Remember that Glendon Rusch actually had a pretty good season and a half for the Cubs, so you never know.
   8. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 03:54 PM (#3493047)
I just can't win with you guys. Last one was too negative, this one too positive.

Both were just fine. Your target range on the scale was very clearly defined in both pieces.
   9. Weeks T. Olive Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:08 PM (#3493055)
Love it, Moses - thanks. If we can't be optimistic now, when can we be? Today is the best day of the year, after all.

I really do think the Cubs are being underrated around the interwebs. My prediction: 88 wins.
   10. Spahn Insane Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:12 PM (#3493058)
Who’s pessimistic now?

You are. You didn't specifically predict a World Series win.
   11. Spahn Insane Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:17 PM (#3493061)
And I won't make a bullseye prediction, but I think the 2010 Cubs will be better than what the preseason consensus seems to reflect.
   12. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:19 PM (#3493065)
You didn't specifically predict a World Series win.

If the Cubs win the World Series, I will wear a baker's dozen of angel food cake hats everyday for an entire month.
   13. Weeks T. Olive Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:34 PM (#3493073)
If the Cubs win the World Series, I will wear a baker's dozen of angel food cake hats everyday for an entire month.

Does this mean you'll have a collection of 13 to choose from each day? Or does it mean you'll wear all 13 at one time for 30 straight days? Or you'll rotate between 13 of them throughout the day each day?

I really think we need to nail down the specifics here.
   14. Moses Taylor loves a good maim Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:46 PM (#3493081)
Or does it mean you'll wear all 13 at one time for 30 straight days? Or you'll rotate between 13 of them throughout the day each day?

Ideally, the former. But logistically, I think it'll have to be the latter.
   15. Spahn Insane Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:49 PM (#3493085)
Somebody with better Photoshop chops than I have needs to create a photo of Moses wearing 13 angel food cake hats simultaneously. The mere thought of it's making my head a'splode.
   16. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:53 PM (#3493089)
Wegmans sells an angel food cake that's a good size for a hat, and it comes in a plastic tub. You could scoop out some of the cake on top and just turn it over, and voilá, angel food cake hat. You could keep the plastic tub on and decorate it with Cubs logos.

When the time comes I would be glad to buy them and send them to you. They're light so I'm sure shipping will be cheap.
   17. Andere Richtingen Posted: April 05, 2010 at 04:57 PM (#3493091)
Googling "angel food cake hat" yields four hits. Amazingly, only one of them is to the BTF thread in question. Also amazingly, two of them are in German.
   18. Spahn Insane Posted: April 05, 2010 at 05:16 PM (#3493132)
Googling "angel food cake hat" yields four hits. Amazingly, only one of them is to the BTF thread in question. Also amazingly, two of them are in German.

We need to weave references to Heinrich und Anders Weiss into this somehow, even though they're no longer Cubs.
   19. ursus arctos Posted: April 05, 2010 at 10:28 PM (#3493978)
Given today's performance, I think Moses is pretty safe.

Sigh.
   20. KB JBAR (trhn) Posted: April 05, 2010 at 11:40 PM (#3494055)
I dream on a lot of that list. Here are my revisions:

1. Alfonso Soriano suffers a career ending injury and insurance covers his salary. (This would be sad, but it really would be best for the Cubs.)
2. Tyler Colvin proves his spring wasn't a fluke as starting LF. Finishes 2nd in ROY.
3. Derrek Lee has a great contract year... and rots on the FA market. He signs a 2 year $8M contract for 2011-12.
4. Theriot starts off HOT. But so does Starlin Castro. The Cubs cash in Theriot for a arb. eligible league above average starter & Castro wins ROY.
   21. The District Attorney Posted: April 06, 2010 at 02:29 AM (#3494196)
Shut the #### up.
   22. BobbyMac Posted: April 07, 2010 at 10:30 PM (#3496393)
1. Alfonso Soriano will have a bounce-back year and will be healthy and useful all season.


I think he calls it "hop-back", actually.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Dynasty League Baseball

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Infinite Yost (Voxter)
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.3193 seconds
53 querie(s) executed