What the FIP?

The Cubs pitching has been statistically extreme in some interesting ways.

First, let’s look at FIP.  FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) attempts to capture a pitcher’s performance, in a term similar to ERA, that does not depend on the fickle fate of balls hit in play. As a team, the Cubs have greatly outperformed their team FIP, posting a 3.13 team ERA (best in MLB), compared to 3.80 FIP (fourth in MLB).  I believe the last time a team finished the season with a higher difference was 2002, when the Atlanta Braves finished with a 3.13 ERA and 3.83 FIP.  Oh, and if you look at teams that vastly outperform their FIP, it’s a list of mostly excellent won/lost records (the ‘02 Braves, for example, went 101-59).

Each of the Cubs starters is outperforming his FIP, by a pretty decent margin:

Arrieta: 2.62 ERA, 3.30 FIP
Hendricks: 2.19 ERA, 3.37 FIP
Lester: 2.81 ERA, 3.67 FIP
Lackey: 3.41 ERA, 3.72 FIP
Hammel: 3.07 ERA, 4.27 FIP

Not surprisingly consider the extreme FIP numbers, Cubs pitchers have also held opponents to remarkably low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  The Cubs hold the second (Arrieta, .231), fifth (Hendricks, .247), sixth (Hammel, .248), thirteenth (Lackey, .258) and sixteenth (Lester, .263) lowest BABIP values among the 93 MLB pitchers with at least 120 IP.  The overall BABIP against Cubs pitchers is .255, with the Blue Jays coming in second at .281.  The last time a pitching staff kept season BABIP to less than .265 was 2001, when the Mariners did it with .260.  They won 116 games.  Perhaps most remarkable is that Cubs pitching has held opponents to a ridiculous .213 batting average.  The last time a team’s opposing BA was <.220 over a full season was 1968, when Detroit (.217), Boston (.212) and Cleveland (.206) did it.  Of course, the MLB BA was .237 in 1968, compared to .256 today.

The Cubs starters also look good in the WAR boards, taking up four of the top 25 spots in MLB among pitchers. Arrieta ranks highest, at 15th (3.5), with Hendricks 16th (3.4), Lester 22nd (2.9), and Lackey 24th (2.8).  Hammel trails far behind, but it’s awfully good to have a fifth starter post a 1.6 WAR.

Does this mean the Cubs have been lucky?  Sure, but teams don’t play 126 games of .643 ball without some luck in their favor.  Some say they’d rather be lucky than good, but being both is even better.