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Saturday, June 26, 2004

1929 Ballot

Here it is, early as I head out on vacation . . . please refrain from voting until Monday, unless you are also going to be computerless next week, thanks! I’ll be back Saturday evening, 7/3.

JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: June 26, 2004 at 12:16 PM | 127 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. yest Posted: July 05, 2004 at 04:32 AM (#717167)
Paul Hines and Sherry Magee make my pHoM this year though I’m not to sure if Magee deserves it.

Make that Paul Hines and Harry Stovey.
   102. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: July 05, 2004 at 04:54 AM (#717171)
If you spot something that looks illogical (like how could you have Doe #X and Smith #Y, when Smith was directly comparable and better) please speak up, I easily could have mis-slotted someone despite my careful reconsideration.

See post #261 of the 1928 discussion thread for my discussion of pitchers. Including adjust WARP1 numbers. I don't like WARP3 defensive adjustments at all. For pitchers I like WARP3 better, because it adjusts for leagues, and the defensive adjustments aren't a problem. I also take WS into account, but I don't have the numbers available to post them here - next time though.

1. Bobby Wallace (1) - 83.8 aWARP1. I see him as basically slightly below Alan Trammell. Outstanding offense, from a very good defensive SS, with a fairly high peak to boot.

2. Sam Thompson (2) - 85.3 aWARP1. Great hitter, lousy fielder according to WS, not so much so according to WARP. His greatness is overstated by having his best years in high offense leagues (which is why he's had to wait), but man could he mash, his SLG in the context of his leagues is outstanding (.505 vs. .376).

3. Clark Griffith (3) - 95.7 aWARP3. His aWARP3 is best on the ballot aside from McCormick, and his two best years show as more valuable than McGinnity's (though McGinnity had 4 such years total).

4. Ed Cicotte (4) - 93.7 aWARP3. I line him up with Griffith, and I see them pretty even.

5. Jimmy Sheckard (5) - 79.2 aWARP1. He's close to Kelley or Keeler - moves ahed of Ryan on further review. If he was a little better or played a little longer he might have been #1.

6. Jake Beckley (6) - 80.5 aWARP1. Very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. Good for 22-25 WS a year for about 13-14 years. That has a lot of value in my opinion. I also believe that 1B defense was more important in his time, and that gets him a subjective nudge forward from where modern methods place him. I see him as more Rusty Staub than Harold Baines.

7. Lip Pike (7) - 68.3 aWARP1. He was a great hitter. 155 OPS+ do not grow on trees . . . major bump, as that aWARP1 number has nothing before age 26.

8. Bill Monroe (8) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he should be ranked near the Thompson level.

9. Charley Jones (11) - 80.4 aWARP1. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow. Was better than I realized.

10. Hughie Jennings (12) - 67.4 aWARP1. Great peak, but it was just 5 years, there's not a lot on the resume besides that. His career number turned out higher than I expected, and when you throw in the peak, well, here he is.

11. Ed Williamson (13) - 67.8 aWARP1. I'm really serious about taking a second look at everyone. His career is quite comparable to Jimmy Collins'. Both had a 113 career OPS+, and Williamson's was more OBP driven than Collins'. Both Collins and Williamson were great defensive players, Williamson was actually better, good enough to play about 3 1/2 years as a SS, though he wasn't too good there.

12. Dickey Pearce (14) - Pearce was a great player, the only question for me was whether or not his career fell under the scope of this project. His NA/NL career clearly shows that he was comparable as a hitter from age 35-41 as other great shortstops, and I take that as positive evidence in evaluating his case. Could possibly be convinced to rank him much higher.

13. Jimmy Ryan (16) - 68.8 aWARP1. Good, not great defensive CF, which is probably why he was eventually shifted to RF. One heckuva hitter though. This is a tight ballot, he's not all that far behind Sheckard, but here is where he landed.

14. George Van Haltren (17) - 71.2 aWARP1. Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. He's behind Ryan because of Ryan's higher peak.

15. Mickey Welch (28) - 85.9 aWARP3. Based on my adjusted WARP he comes out basically a little below McGinnity, Willis, et al. Throw in some timeline, and he's below them. But Chris J. has mentioned that he was generally matched up against the other teams's best pitchers, so that gives him some bump. But he just doesn't compare to the top pitchers (Clarkson, Radbourn, Galvin) of his era.
   103. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: July 05, 2004 at 04:57 AM (#717174)
16. Rube Foster (23) - Creeping up some more. I can see him as better than Waddell now, though with a similarly short career.

17. Spotswood Poles (n/e) - I9s, with some downward adjustment shows him below Ryan and Van Haltren, above where I figure Cravath/Tiernan, so this is a reasonable starting point. I don't think his peak is enough to move him past Ryan and Van Haltren.

18. Rube Waddell (18) - 80.5 aWARP3. Not quite as good as Joss at his best, but he pitched about 2 more seasons, enough to edge him forward.

19. Ed Konetchy (19) - 72.8 aWARP1. WARP loves his defense. Very good player - kind of Hernandezish - more power, less OBP, and overall not as good, but a similar package.

20. Cupid Childs (20) - 71.0 aWARP1. Now I can see how you could compare him to Doyle and have him ahead - consider me converted . . .

21. Vic Willis (21) - 88.7 aWARP3. I see very goodness. He's Dennis Martinez compared the guys on the ballot being Dave Stieb, David Cone or Tom Glavine.

22. Jim McCormick (10) - 121.1 aWARP3. Maybe I adjusted him too high last time, considering the context of his time. A few huge years, and never a bad one, until his final season. Arguably the best pitcher in baseball (overall) from 1879-82.

23. Bob Caruthers (22) - 89.7 aWARP3. I see greatness, but not enough of it. And I don't see as much as those who think the AA was the NL's equal.

24. Larry Doyle (24) - 37.5 aWARP1. Very comparable to Ron Santo. Wasn't as durable and played one fewer season, but he was great hitter for the position, even when you consider that 2B wasn't nearly as important defensively as it is now. Questions about his defense have caused his drop - but I don't agree with the WARP defensive rating, which cost him 18.8 wins below an average 2B.

25. Gavvy Cravath (25) - 44.1 aWARP1. I ran a little quick and dirty WS comparison on Cravath at age 32-34 to find similar players, and four turned up - Bret Boone, Sam Crawford, Gary Sheffield and Billy Williams.

The others are slam dunk Hall of Famers (if Sheffield ages like Cravath, Crawford or Williams he will be one), except for Boone these guys averaged:

Age 28 - 25 WS
Age 29 - 30 WS
Age 30 - 26 WS

Of course, cravath could've been a late bloomer, like Boone. At 27, Boone had 10 WS, Cravath 12 (in limited playing time 20 projected to a full season). From age 23-26 and 28-30 Boone compiled 82 WS. I could see this as a conservative estimate for Cravath. I could also see giving him credit for 39 WS age 23-26 and 81 WS age 28-30. I think that's what I'll do for now - it's not perfect, but it's a reasonable estimate of where Cravath might have been had he not been held back. That would peg him as a 320 WS player, which about where I see him. Carefully worked out opinion is the best we can do sometimes.

I'm not quite as comfortable projecting this as I was though - so he slips.

26. Bruce Petway (n/e) - I think it's reasonable to put him a little ahead of Bresnahan.

27. Mike Tiernan (26) - 56.3 aWARP1. Relatively short career, but he could hit. I don't think the D was as bad as WARP says.

28. Addie Joss (29) - 69.9 aWARP3. A truly great pitcher, in the Koufax/Dean mold. He never had a year where he wasn't at least a very good pitcher, and if it wasn't for his death, he'd be talked about with greatest of the great. He doesn't get any extra credit for dying young or anything, just saying that he was a truly great pitcher.

29. Pete Browning (30) - 85.6 aWARP1. Back on the board, but I don't see him as a great player. Short career, weak competition, questionable defense. Just not enough there. I see him kind of like Jim Rice - some spectacular surface numbers, but when you look at the context, many holes begin to emerge, and nearly all of the necessary adjustments dock his raw numbers.

30. Roger Bresnahan (31) - 46.7 aWARP1. An incredible hitter for a catcher. Lots of walks, but he really didn't play all that much. He drops on the reevaluation - he just didn't play enough. He's only this high because of a subjective 'catcher bonus'.
   104. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: July 05, 2004 at 04:59 AM (#717177)
31. Tom York (32) - 73.4 aWARP1. Very good player for a very long time.

32. Tony Mullane (27) - 89.9 aWARP3. Tough to rank, but his best years were in weak leagues, or he'd be higher. One of the best pitcher/hitter combinations of all-time. He drops though, as he had more help from his teams than most.

33. Lave Cross (33) - 68.8 aWARP1. Another very good player for a very long time. Had big years in 1894, 1898, 1899 and 1902.

34. John McGraw (34) - 61.0 aWARP1. If only he could have stayed healthy. An incredible OBP machine when on the field, and played key defensive positions to boot. But his career was more than a full season shorter than Jennings, for example. Just 7 seasons where he played the modern equivalent of 100 games.

35. Frank Chance (35) - 57.4 aWARP1. Great player, short career and wasn't durable during his short career, decreasing the impact he could have on any one pennant race. What a great team, the most similar team to the 1996-2000 Yankees that I can think of, in terms of balance vs. superstars.

36. Herman Long (36) - 62.9 aWARP1. Decent hitter for the position and a defensive wizard. Poor man's Ozzie Smith.

37. Mike Griffin (37) - 61.6 aWARP1. Amazing defensive CF and a pretty good hitter too.

38. Tommy Leach (41) - 56.9 aWARP1. One of the best 'slash' players of all-time. When you consider his defensive contribution, career length and that he had some pop (career SLG + .021), it's a nice package. Well-rounded players always tend to be underrated. I wish I could rank him higher.

39. Joe Tinker (42) - 55.5 aWARP1. Another one that's kind of tough. I believe he was a historically great defensive player, along the lines of Ozzie Smith. His offensive was very good for a shortstop (better than Ozzie's). His career was short, or it wouldn't be a question.

40. Johnny Evers (47) - 50.7 aWARP1. Man these poem guys were good, it's amazing that none of them had a long career. All 3 had high enough peaks to warrant a spot near the top (Evers had 6 WARP1's over 9.0), but they just didn't play long enough.

41. Levi Meyerle (38) - 45.3 aWARP1. Short career, awful defensive player, in an era where defense mattered most. He could hit though.

42. Joe Wood (39) - 58.7 aWARP1, 55.1 aWARP3. His 1912 was one of the best single seasons anyone has ever had.

43. Fielder Jones (40) - 57.4 aWARP1. Very good player, mid-glut I suppose, I have him ranked a little below Griffin, who was a little better in a shorter career. Similar to Thomas, not as good but played longer.

44. Jimmy Williams (43) - 54.6 aWARP1. He actually showed quite well on my system. Very good defensive player, 115 OPS+. Call me surprised here . . .

45. Miller Huggins (44) - 52.2 aWARP1. Valuable little player, getting on base and playing a solid 2B for a very long time.

46. Hugh Duffy (45) - 52.0 aWARP1. He had a nice career, but his 2nd best year was in a weak AA (1891), and distorts his eyeball peak value a little bit. I'd take the career of Mike Griffin over Duffy's. Easily the most overrated player by the group. Convince me why I might be wrong, please, I'm just not seeing it.

47. Roy Thomas (46) - 51.6 aWARP1. Really good player, but no power at all. He was a great defensive player. I absolutely love the type of game he played.
   105. Guapo Posted: July 05, 2004 at 07:27 AM (#717203)
Wow, filling out a ballot is quite a chore these days. 1 and 2 I feel strongly about. 3 through about, oh, 25 I've got no idea who should rank where. Plus, my militant pro-catcher stand makes Nader supporters look like wild pragmatists.

1. Rube Foster- Thinking about it, I have a feeling his contemporaries would snort at Pete Hill getting in before him. (Yeah, I know, I had Hill ahead of him.) Was benchmarked throughout his career by observers to guys like Rusie, Young and Waddell. I can’t hold it against him that he didn’t have the career arc of an Eddie Plank.

2. Larry Doyle- The Derek Jeter of the teens? Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.

3. Ed Konetchy - The best first baseman of his time, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.

4. Frank Chance- Keith Hernandez comp? An OBP stud who was an offensive star, albeit for a short time. Konetchy’s got a better case though.

5. Roger Bresnahan

6. Bruce Petway
You gotta have catchers, or else you’re gonna have a lot of passed balls... yep, it’s a newfound commitment to the positional boost. Since I’m the only one so far to put Petway on a ballot, I guess I better spend some time on this one. Looking at the historical record and his stats, I have him pegged to Bob Boone in my mind- terrific defensive catcher, played a long time (not as long as Boone, but long for his era) and offense that can be charitably described as average- maybe above average for his position. But is seems to me a catcher like that is *much* more valuable in the era in which Petway played, when everyone is running the bases like madmen and catchers drop like flies after a few years. I’m ranking Bresnahan higher this “year” because I think his offense puts him on top, but they may switch in future years. Petway played a lot more (and better) at catcher.

7. Lip Pike- Others have made the arguments, and they’re convincing. The premier outfielder of his time.

8. Clark Griffith- Well, his graduation to the top 15 compelled me to take another look at him, and what do you know. Wasn’t adequately taking into account the league environment, and it jumps him over all the other pitchers down near 14-15.

9. Bill Monroe- I jumped Monroe last week- now thinking that might have been premature. Rube Foster reportedly described him as the greatest player he ever saw. Long career, certainly comparable to Grant.

10. Gavvy Cravath- Gavvy takes a little tumble down the ballot this week. He was dominant for 5 years, but not a whole lot else on his resume for his major league career.

11. Tommy Leach- Reevaluated the centerfielders this week and Leach was the big winner. I think Pike, Leach, Fielder Jones, and Duffy are all very close- wish there was a ballot spot for all of them.

12. Dickey Pearce- Probably more of a “career” than a “peak” player, but based on the stats I’m thinking his peak was at least very good.

13. Charley Jones- Will probably bounce on and off the ballot depending on who’s eligible.

14. Mickey Welch

15. Hippo Vaughn
I can't distinguish between the remaining pitchers. In chronological order, McCormick, Welch, Caruthers, Mullane, Waddell, Willis, Ciccotte, and Vaughn are all very close. Rather than penalize them all, I decided to go with one from the 1880s and one from the teens. Welch’s career value was the tiebreaker for the 1880s guys. I actually like Hippo’s peak a little better than Cicotte’s- He had five terrific years, including a potential MVP season in 1918. Plus he didn’t throw no World Series, and apparently pitched competitively until he was in his 50s, according to James.
   106. Guapo Posted: July 05, 2004 at 07:32 AM (#717204)
Other Candidates With Nothing To Be Ashamed Of:

Bobby Wallace: Current lows at the “important” rate stats for all HOMers whose careers started after 1876: AVG: Bid McPhee, .271; OBP: Jack Glasscock, .337; SLG: McPhee, .372. Wallace is going for the trifecta with .268/.332/.358.

Jimmy Sheckard: Pretty close to making the bottom of the ballot- I have him as close to C. Jones. Very good player, but I see him as the third-best leftfielder in his not-particularly deep league for most of his career, behind Clarke and Magee.

Sam Thompson: I like the 1880s-1890s outfield glut as follows: Duffy, Tiernan, Ryan, Thompson, Van Haltren. So he’s got some people to jump over.

Bob Caruthers: Every week I stare at Caruthers’ stat lines, and I feel like I’m staring at one of those 3-D pictures where everyone can see a dolphin jumping out of the water, and all I see are dots.... I just don’t see his peak as that much greater than several of his contemporaries, who had markedly longer careers.

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career. Konetchy and Chance were the best of their eras.

George Van Haltren: See Thompson comment. Will never make my ballot.

Jimmy Ryan: I’d take Jimmy over GVH based on peak. Ryan’s not a bad candidate, but he’s going to have to wait to get a vote from me.

Rube Waddell: Undoubtedly great, but probably about the seventh best pitcher of his era behind a lot of guys who’ve already been elected.
   107. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 05, 2004 at 07:38 AM (#717205)
Ah, holidays - knowing I'm getting up late tomorrow lets me stall getting my ballot ready. Bob Caruthers and Pete Hill make my PHoM this year. Two candidates make my ballot for the first time...

1. Dickey Pearce (3) Didn't make my ballot until 1903, now he's at the top. It's clear from the Wright (via D. Foss) info that he was the best player of his time. It was a very different game, but he was playing the best competiton he could find. His NA numbers are not worthy of induction, but they aren't inconsistent with his being a great player earlier in his career. Made my PHoM in 1920.

2. Lip Pike (2) He was one of the five or six best players of the '71-'77 era, combined power and speed, and played important defensive positions. The information from Marshall Wright via David Foss compares him favorably to his compatriots already enshrined. Slips behind Pearce because while he was among the best, he was never a true challenger to being The Best. Made my PHoM in 1919.

3. Bobby Wallace (4) I don't buy the Beckley comparisons; he was never great but consistently very good. Didn't have a great peak, but did have a respectable one. An excellent fielder and a servicable hitter who played for a very long time. Not the best SS of his era, but he had a pretty darn good peer group. Made my PHoM in 1925.

4. Bob Caruthers (5) All right, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. At his peak, he was the most dominant player in his league (and yes, it was the weaker one). He had a wider range of skills than anybody. He's got a clearer argument for greatness than any other pitcher on the ballot. We don't need more 1880s pitchers, but he's simply too good to leave out. Makes my PHoM this year.

(4A Pete Hill, 4B Sherry Magee)

5. Jimmy Sheckard (6) Had an odd career path and much of his value is hidden, but he was a quality player. A lot of defensive value for a corner OF.

(5A Joe McGinnity)

6. Cupid Childs (9) He could hit the ball pretty good for a 2B and his defense was decent. Rocketing up my ballot (he was 14th in 1926), and I may well reconsider, but it does seem that 1890s IF are underrepresented.

7. Bill Monroe (8) A good player, but I haven't seen any good argument to have him as high as Johnson or Grant.

8. Hughie Jennings (10) Still a more impressive peak than anyone else on the ballot, and when he was good, he was good at everything.

9. Spotswood Poles (new) His numbers (as we have them) do seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. Ahead of Van Ryan because James likes him so much. What do we know about his defense?

10. Jimmy Ryan (11) A little more impact as a hitter - makes the top 10 OPS+ rankings 7 times to Van Haltren's 3

11. George Van Haltren (12) Ryan Version 1.1. Both guys were very good players for a respectable career, but don't seem to rise to the level of greatness to make the Hall.

12. Jim McCormick (14) OK, he probably was great, but not for long enough, and I'm really uncertain about adding more 1880s pitchers. He feels like he should be worthy, but we can't put everyone in.

13. Clark Griffith (13) The DERA numbers help a little, but he doesn't have one strong argument. Just not sure he was ever great.

14. Sam Thompson (15) Short career, hitter's parks, lousy fielder. I don't find his numbers that convincing. They look nice, though.

15. Tommy Leach (16) First ever appearence on my ballot. Long career w/out much peak, but hit OK for defensive positions and fielded extremely well.

Off Ballot:
16. Mike Griffin. Next year he should make the ballot and frig up my similarity rating.
17. Herman Long.
18. Larry Doyle. Both suffering from being poor at important aspects of job.
19. Mickey Welch. Gaudy numbers, but I'm not convinced there's anything behind them.
20. Charley Jones.
21. Rube Waddell
22. Jake Beckley. There just is no peak there whatsoever, and even when there weren't HOFers in the league, he wasn't a great deal better than his compatriots.
23. Rube Foster. I know there are good reasons why his career was relatively short, but given that, I have to be positive he was great, and I'm simply not. He was the best black pitcher of his time, but I don't know if he was Walsh or Joss.
24. Addie Joss.
25. Pete Browning.
   108. Sean Gilman Posted: July 05, 2004 at 08:17 AM (#717211)
With 45 ballots in, I have this as the closest election ever, by 1/2 a point over 1906.. . .hopefully everyone gets their ballots in on time this week. . .
   109. Ken Fischer Posted: July 05, 2004 at 01:04 PM (#717254)
1929 Ballot

For the most part the same ballot I had last week with everyone moving up. The big change is I moved Pete Browning and Mickey Welch onto my ballot. Browning returns after a long hiatus and Welch makes it for the first time. I like Griffith, Mathews, Mullane and McCormick. But I believe Mickey belongs in the HOM first.

1-Bob Caruthers 337 WS
I can't accept the "AA" discount as enough reason to drop Bob down. He played an important role for top major league teams during baseball's formative years. And the HOM needs more pitchers.

2-Dickey Pearce
Some reports have Dickey as one of the first players paid under the table. All accounts say he was a premier player of the 1860s.

3-Bobby Wallace 345 WS
Probably his time now.

4-Jimmy Sheckard 339 WS

5-Rube Foster
The new SABR National Pastime features the Philadelphia Negro World Championships of 1903-1904. Both Rube and Sol White are mentioned as playing important roles in the historcial games.

6-George Van Haltren 344 WS

7-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS

8-Sam Thompson 236 WS

9-Jake Beckley 318 WS

10-Lip Pike

11-Sol White
Manager in the '03-'04 games.

12-Pete Browning 225 WS
The great Players League season proves the Louisville Slugger belongs. We've just had a lot of players to clear through first.

13-Hugh Duffy 295 WS

14-Mickey Welch 354 WS
Yes...Mickey was on the right team at the right time...but it took more than the 1885 season to get those 300+ wins. Hard to ignore those win shares.

15-Rube Waddell 240 WS
   110. OCF Posted: July 05, 2004 at 04:03 PM (#717302)
46 ballots so far. Not voted yet (but have voted in the last three years:)

Carl Goetz
Max Parkinson
Sean M

Of that list, only KJOK, Max Parkinson, and Seaver1969 voted last year.
   111. Max Parkinson Posted: July 05, 2004 at 05:05 PM (#717340)
So many years after he began playing the game, Joe Start will be enshrined in the MP HoM in 1929! He will go in alongside Joe Jackson (who will not be invited to the ceremony).

For my personal hall, I'm pretty sure that the '60s and '70s are almost closed. Cal McVey is scheduled for induction next year, and Tommy Bond might just make it before the 33-34 onslaught, but he's touch and go. Harry Wright just isn't going to get there - he'll have to wait for a Pioneer wing along with Jim Creighton.

My 1929 Ballot:

1. Hughie Jennings
2. Bob Caruthers
3. Sam Thompson
4. Jimmy Sheckard
5. Dickey Pearce
6. Bobby Wallace
7. Lip Pike
8. Eddie Cicotte
9. Fielder Jones
10. Jim McCormick
11. Clark Griffith
12. George Van Haltren
13. Tommy Bond
14. Bruce Petway
15. Jake Beckley

16-20. Monroe, Nash, Ryan, Williamson, Poles
21-25. Whitney, Cross, Foster, Buffinton, Konetchy
26-30. McGraw, Waddell, King, Seymour, Long
31-35. Force, J. Williams, Childs, Duffy, Willis
36-40. Tannehill, Tenney, Doc White, Griffin, Breitenstein
41-45. Hawley, Tiernan, Hutchison, Mullin, H. Davis
46-50. Cravath, Orth, Rucker, Elmer Smith, B. Bradley

Required comments:

Jimmy Ryan (18th) - He's been just off the bottom of my ballot for lots of years now. He's just behind VH, but VH's pitching leaves JR 5 or 6 ballot spots behind.

This has to be a personal record for fewest required comments...

Other comments:

I might have started out Petway a little high, and Poles a little low, but I'll continue to look at both. These subjective types are tough.

I'm starting to be concerned that I've got Rube Foster way too low.

It's kind of nice to see the electorate come around on Clark Griffith (MP HoMer, 1913). Now come around on Jennings, and I'll be a much happier camper.
   112. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 05, 2004 at 05:51 PM (#717371)
Still fighting it out for the second spot...
   113. karlmagnus Posted: July 05, 2004 at 09:58 PM (#717668)
The suspense and silence kills me. To quote Sir Henry Newbolt (yes I know, wrong sport):

There's a deathly hush in the close tonight.
Ten to make and the last man in.
A bumping pitch and a blinding light,
An hour to play, and the match to win.
But it's not for the hope of a ribboned coat,
Or the tawdry joys of a season's fame,
But his captain's hand on his shoulder smote:
"Play up, Play up, and Play the Game!"

REAL POETRY! Two hours to go before the polls close!
   114. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 06, 2004 at 12:00 AM (#717967)
Unofficial results:

Bobby Wallace:690
Sam Thompson:621
Jimmy Sheckard:616
Bob Caruthers:573
Dickey Pearce:545
Lip Pike:488
Jake Beckley:448
George Van Haltren:446
Clark Griffith:381
Rube Foster:367
Jimmy Ryan:361
Roger Bresnahan:315
Mickey Welch:315
Cupid Childs:282
Rube Waddell:277
   115. OCF Posted: July 06, 2004 at 12:20 AM (#718061)
There was some idle talk of extending the ballot, but I think that was the deadline. My tally is in complete agreement with John's. As for the voters listed in post #110 (other than Max, who did vote), all but one of them had Thompson ahead of Sheckard on their last vote, and the one exception to that is someone who last voted in 1927. Extending the deadline would be unlikely to change the result.

Sam Thompson becomes the first player to be elected without appearing on my ballot.
   116. Dag Nabbit at Posted: July 06, 2004 at 01:37 AM (#718422)
There was some idle talk of extending the ballot, but I think that was the deadline. My tally is in complete agreement with John's.

I'm not sure which is more surprising, that Thompson overcame a 75 point deficit to Sheckard or the implication that John Murphy got the math right. (ducks)

Dang it. I was looking forward to making Beckley my #1 next year, too. . . . Rube Waddell ain't winning many new supporters. He's been on the verge of becoming a top ten returnee for a few years now but he's always passed up by enough people to avoid that.

Top ten returnees (actually 11 due to a tie for 10th) for next year (get yer excuses ready everyone!) - Sheckard, Caruthers, Pierce, Pike, Beckley, Van Haltren, Griffith, Foster, Ryan, Bresnahan, Welch.
   117. Max Parkinson Posted: July 06, 2004 at 01:43 AM (#718452)
My tally of the top 20 as of 8:00 EDT is,

Bobby Wallace 704
Sam Thompson 636
Jimmy Sheckard 625
Bob Caruthers 583
Dickey Pearce 555
Lip Pike 496
Jake Beckley 452
George Van Haltren 448
Clark Griffith 382
Andrew Foster 371
Jimmy Ryan 361
Mickey Welch 321
Roger Bresnahan 318
Cupid Childs 283
Hughie Jennings 279
Rube Waddell 277
Hugh Duffy 259
Pete Browning 224
Bill Monroe 217
Larry Doyle 211

That is only slightly (and not meaningfully) different than John's list.
   118. Sean Gilman Posted: July 06, 2004 at 01:47 AM (#718466)
My tally matches John's, except I have Pearce with 561 points. . .
   119. KJOK Posted: July 06, 2004 at 02:16 AM (#718567)
For some reason, I thought we were extending voting 1 week due to Joe's absence...guess I wasn't paying enough attention.
   120. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 06, 2004 at 02:27 AM (#718588)
Well, it doesn't really matter, because it's pretty clear that Thompson and Sheckard were both going to get in anyway. It will get a lot more interesting next year, though, as the next few guys are all missing from significant numbers of ballots. (They're almost surely going to be 1-2-3 on mine, barring new arrivals.) OTOH, if the numbers are right, I'm glad it wasn't my 7 points that put Thompson over the top, because he's the first HoMer who I'm certain is not going to make my PHoM.
   121. KJOK Posted: July 06, 2004 at 02:31 AM (#718598)
If it doesn't matter, then I'll go ahead and post my ballot since I've voted in every election...

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers.

1. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low.

2. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than Thompson.

3. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively.

4. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey.

5. RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings.

6. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was more important defensively. Leader of one of the greatest teams in history, and the next inductee from that team should be Chance.

7. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s. Best remaining 2nd baseman.

8. BOBBY WALLACE, SS. .522 OWP (.546 thru 1910). 195 RCAP (211 thru 1910). 9,612 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Hung around ala Pete Rose after 1910. Also outstanding defensive 3B in the 2 years he played there. Not quite the player Jennings was.

9. BRUCE PETWAY, C. Best Negro Leagues Catcher of the 1910’s.

10. TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

11. LARRY DOYE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times.

12. BOB CARUTHERS, P/RF. 179 RSAA. 177 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 123 ERA+. .668 OWP. 243 RCAP. 2,906 PAs. Only shortness of career keeps Caruthers from being an “inner circle” superstar.

13. SAM THOMPSON, RF. .684 OWP. 387 RCAP. 6,510 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not the hitter Browning was, but still an offensive force.

14. SPOTWOOD POLES, CF Oscar Charleston and Pete Hill the only Negro League contemporary outfielders that were better.

15. DICKEY PEARCE, SS. He WAS basically, along with Harry Wright, the old guy in the league 1871-1877, and his fielding was still league average, but didn’t hit nearly as well as Harry (who played CF). May have been Ozzie Smith, but hard to tell for certain. However, I’m finally convinced there is enough evidence to place him in the top 15.

JIMMY SHECKARD, LF. .626 OWP. 135 RCAP. 9,117 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Another player who was good but not great offensively, played a long time. Don’t see why so much love for him. He was a great defensive LFer, but in era with fewer fly balls. Similar to Hugh Duffy.
TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. AA discount puts him off ballot until I finally get around to my AA vs. NL study.
LIP PIKE, CF. Perhaps best hitting CF of the 1870’s, but short career puts him off ballot.
JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Another good for a long time player who is just below elite status.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below the elite OF’ers both offensively and defensively.
JIMMY RYAN, CF/RF. .609 OWP. 205 RCAP. 9,114 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not quite up to top OF hitters, and only average defense won’t move him up.
CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. He’s really not all that far away from McGinnity, but not that far from Silver King either.
   122. OCF Posted: July 06, 2004 at 02:52 AM (#718654)
Max: in an elect-2 year, that's 24 for first place, 23 for second. I think you must have been using 25 and 24.

As for KJOK's ballot - why not? That way there can be 5 consensus scores lower than mine instead of just 4. He breaks the Bresnahan-Welch tie in favor of Bresnahan and the Jennings-Waddell tie in favor of Jennings. And he adds one more to the already long list of players getting first place votes.
   123. Kelly in SD Posted: July 06, 2004 at 03:32 AM (#718733)
Even though I am a FOMW, I think KJOK's ballot should be counted because it gives us a more accurate voting record.
   124. robc Posted: July 06, 2004 at 03:46 AM (#718744)
Based on the first posted results, my switching of Thompson and Sheckard made the difference. I had Sheckard 2nd and Thompson 3rd and switched them this year. With the 4 pt bonus between 2 and 3, that was 5 extra for Sam and 5 less for Jimmy. Sorry to all the FOJS. He should be #1 on my ballot next year.

If we count KJOK's ballot then my ballot switch didnt actual affect anything, so Im in favor of couting it. :)

I feel like James Wilson right now.
   125. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 06, 2004 at 05:13 AM (#718804)
Even though I am a FOMW, I think KJOK's ballot should be counted because it gives us a more accurate voting record.

I'm in favor of allowing it, also. Besides, Pearce and Childs get more votes that way. :-)

I'm not sure which is more surprising, that Thompson overcame a 75 point deficit to Sheckard or the implication that John Murphy got the math right. (ducks)

How droll. :-)

Actually, I'm very good at math. My problem is placing the vote in the wrong cell (my spreadsheet does all the computations) when I'm half-asleep and blurry-eyed.
   126. DavidFoss Posted: July 06, 2004 at 06:40 AM (#718818)
Hello... can I post?
   127. DavidFoss Posted: July 06, 2004 at 06:41 AM (#718819)
OK... sorry... back from vacation and it wouldn't let me post a message that started with "testing"
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