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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 18, 2004

1937 Ballot

The newly eligible with a decent chance to make some ballots this “year” are Wally Schang, Edd Roush, Cannonball Dick Redding and Chino Smith. However, I’ll put my money on returnees Harry Heilmann and Cristóbal Torriente leading the pack this “year.”

Other returnees include Heinie Groh, Stan Coveleski, Lip Pike, Jake Beckley, Max Carey and George Van Haltren.

Is this the end of…Rico?

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2004 at 01:54 PM | 93 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2004 at 02:17 PM (#922948)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Cupid Childs-2B (3): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

Cupid has the most seasons as the best player at his position who is not in the HoM and compares favorably in that regard with the majority of HoMers, IMO. I honestly don't think any other player that becomes eligible from this point on with as many seasons as the best at his position will have to wait anywhere nearly as long Childs has had to endure. That doesn't mean he belongs as high as I have him, but he should be hitting everyone's ballot somewhere. Please take another look at him.

2) Heinie Groh-3B (4): Best third baseman of his era not name Frank Baker. Near the top of his position for total WS and WS per Games. Terrific hitting (second best at his position in major league history to date) and fielding for his position. Like Childs, many years as the best at his position, yet still had a long career for someone at his position. He belongs. Best major league third baseman for 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920 and 1924.

3) Stan Coveleski-P (5): Excellent pitcher whose prime straddled the Deadball and Lively Ball eras.

4) Cristóbal Torriente-CF/LF/RF/P (6): This guy was no where near being the best centerfielder of his time, but that tells you more about Cobb and Speaker than it does about Torriente. Great bat and glove.

5) Harry Heilmann-RF/1B (7): Maybe a slug as a fielder and baserunner, but not as a hitter. Best major league rightfielder for 1921 and 1922 (close in 1926). Best AL rightfielder for 1925 and 1926.

6) Lip Pike-CF/RF/2B (8): Considered the fastest man of his time. Major star prior to the NA. Two things hold him back somewhat: durability and how good of a player he was at his position compared to his competition pre-NA (Pearce is not affected as much by the latter in my analysis, obviously). Best major league rightfielder for 1871 and 1873. Best major league centerfielder for 1874-1876.

7) Charley Jones-LF/CF (9): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

8) Vic Willis-P (10): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

9) Tom York-LF (11): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Sheckard?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than Sheckard was during his time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870s. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

10) Jake Beckley-1B (12): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

11) Mickey Welch-P (13): I have to admit that the 1880s had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Rube Waddell-P (14): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

13)José Méndez-P (15): Looks a lot like Waddell quality-wise, so I'll place him right here. Very impressive player.

14) Ed Konetchy-1B (n/e): Best first baseman of the Deadball Era, IMO. The uber-stat systems don't measure first base well, so Konetchy is hurt by that. Best major league first baseman for 1910, 1911 and 1916 (very close in 1909 and 1912). Best NL first baseman for 1909, 1912 and 1919.

15) George Van Haltren-CF/P (n/e): Long career of quality play. Best AA leftfielder for 1889 and 1891.

Of the other newbies, Schang may make my ballot someday soon. Redding and Roush are not that far off either. Smith doesn't have enough of a career to make my ballot.

As for Carey, long career, but not very peak friendly for me.
   2. karlmagnus Posted: October 18, 2004 at 02:21 PM (#922952)
Schang surprised me by being rather good, and is underrated by WS, so came on at #9 on this still very strong ballot. Roush is Beckley minus 3 years or Sisler minus 2, without Sisler’s peak, so down in Carey territory (Sisler’s about 5% better than Roush, on average, for a significantly longer career with more deadball years, but has a lower OPS+ -- makes me doubt the hidden fudge factors in that metric.) Redding doesn’t look anything special – probably somewhere marginally off the ballot but above Mendez.

1. (N/A-3) Harry Heilmann. OPS+148. Only 2660 hits but TB+BB/PA .548, TB+BB/Outs .898, up there with the greats. Hugely better than Carey, who is sub-glut. Moderately better than Torriente, probably. Only marginally better than Beckley.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4) Jake Beckley Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 7 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707 not as good as outfielder glut - but much of his career was played in the dead ball ‘00s, and 1B was a marginally more important fielding position than outfielder then. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5) Mickey Welch 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the short career dead ball era pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was better than the 00s pitchers, all of whom were pitching in favorable conditions, none of whom (other than Young and Matty) got near 300 wins.

4. (N/A-6) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch but above Torriente, I think. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro! And he had power too. 1920 also one hell of a peak.

5. (N/A-8-6-7) Cristobal Torriente. I’m satisfied he was a great player and HOM-worthy, but probably the lower half of the HOM. His I9 translations beat Beckley/Welch, but not by much and I think I9’s too high. But everybody down to about 11-12 on this ballot is easily HOM-worthy, in my view.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) By a significant margin the best pitcher on the current ballot – only loses to Welch on longevity.

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

9. (N/A) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: October 18, 2004 at 02:22 PM (#922953)
10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11) Sam Leever. 194-100 is more career than 1720 hits, so Leever, Mays and Covaleski go above Childs and Groh. That and an ERA+ of 123 also get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

11. (N/A-11-12) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above Coveleski

12. (N/A-13-12-13) Stan Coveleski More wins than Leever and a similar ERA+, but started at the normal time, and less W/L pct. One of the best of his era, and will rank much higher in years to come.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B, and I’ve been undervaluing him, significantly.

14. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

15. (N/A-9-15-14-N/A) Heinie Groh Close to a clone of Childs, but not quite as good, so fits here. 1774 hits, OPS+118, TB+BB/PA .431, TB+BB/Outs .666 (all 3 below Childs). 3B in 10s probably about equivalent to 2B in 90s, but Groh not as good a hitter, given these numbers were after the deadball era.


16. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

17. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

18. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134 and moves up owing to pitcher dearth, although his unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

19. (N/A-13-15-N/A) Vic Willis Moved up owing to pitcher dearth 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

20. (9-12-12-11-9-10-10-13-12-15-14-N/A-12-13-11-13-13-15-N/A) Lip Pike - Like Start, give some credit for missing 1860s. However, normalize 1871-78 season by season and he gets 1,592 hits after 26 - not quite an obvious HOM-er. 4 “normalized 200-hit” seasons, but only just, whereas Meyerle’s 1871 peak normalizes to 320 (obviously a random fluctuation, but in the right direction!)TB+BB/PA .478, TB+BB/Outs .713.

21. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike. Lower than Pike because not a huge pre-’71 career.

22. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.

23. Ben Taylor. I think he is not all that far below Beckley and probably better than Van Haltren, so he’s up a few spaces.
24. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
25. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
26. Deacon McGuire
27. Tony Mullane
28. Jim McCormick
29. Dick Redding Not quite long enough career, not quite dominant enough. Either slightly above or slightly below Poles, I think.
30. Edd Roush TB+BB/PA .462, TB+BB/Outs.706, significantly better than Carey but streets below Sisler.
31. Max Carey. More hits than Hooper, lower OPS+ (only 107, though that’s lowered by a long decline). TB+BB/PA .433, TB+BB/Outs .658 very feeble, and it’s post-the real deadball era. SBs add a little, as he was about 75% successful.
32. Spotswood Poles.
33. Larry Doyle
34. Roger Bresnahan.
35. Harry Hooper.
36. Jules Thomas.
37. Wilbur Cooper
38. Bruce Petway.
39. Jack Clements
40. Bill Monroe
41. Jose Mendez
42. Chief Bender
43. Ed Konetchy
44. Hughie Jennings Not a historic peak, and a very short career.
45. Jesse Tannehill
46. Bobby Veach
47. Tommy Leach
48. Lave Cross
49. Tom York
   4. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:01 PM (#922978)
A lot of flux over the past couple weeks, and this week's no different as I reconsider my reconsiderations and try to get a better handle on the pitching and OF gluts. Sigh...still need to figure out a best practice for working with catchers....

1. Torriente
2. Heilmann
3. Groh: Gets the nod over "G-Van" because he played third at a time when third was further along the spectrum than CF and its attrition rates were much higher.
4. Van H.: Back where he belongs.
5. Duffy: First time I've voted for him since 1933, but I've been underrating him.
6. Poles: Still one of his best friends.
7. Monroe: Ditto.
8. Coveleski: Best hurler on the ballot.
9. Griffith: The Coveleski of his generation.
10. Redding: Very tight between Stan, Clark, and Cannonball ("D-Red"?), but today I think this is the most logical and correct order. The in/out line on my ballot is hovering somewhere between the 9th and 15th place, though little separates many of these candidates.
11. Roush: This feels about right. Not an historically large peak, nor historically lengthy career, but just enough of each to get on the crowded bottom of the ballot. I have fewer questions about his career than I do about…
12. Willis: I've never voted for him before. As Chris J.'s RSI notes point out, there's little to explain those 10 missing wins. A little better than Cooper who is just off the bottom.
13. Childs: Back on my ballot after a year away. Third-best eligible infielder.
14. Leach: First time I've voted for him as well. Working to get a little more career into the process has helped him, and this is why we keep tinkering and reconsidering and trying to get things right. Not quite as good as Roush, but better than Ryan thanks to his play at 3B.
15. Mendez: His big peak plus a couple more shoulder years gets him into the caboose slot on my ballot over Cooper. Could go either way.

Beckley: Despite a more career-oriented outlook, he’s still not making my ballot with the peakless career.

Carey: Carey is very close now to my ballot. I preferred Leach’s peak/prime and 3B play.

Pike: See previous ballots for my reasoning, my evaluation of his career has not changed substantially.

Chino Smith: Good peak, but no shoulders.

Wally Shang: I still do not feel much confidence evaluating catchers, it’s the next big step I need to take. That said, I don’t see overwhelming evidence that Schang is a HOMer. Even with bonuses, his big years aren’t as big as I’d like.
   5. andrew siegel Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:17 PM (#923002)
(1) Cristobal Torriente (3rd)-- The only player on the ballot with no significant holes in his resume; at the high end, he was Paul Waner; at the low end, maybe Zack Wheat; my best guess has him in the top 80 or so All-Time, and thus ahead of Heilmann.

(2) Harry Heilmann (4th)-- The line between offensive performance that overcomes all other factors (defense, durability, etc) and offensive performance that does not falls somewhere between Heilmann and the Thompson/Tiernan/ Browning gang. Probably not one of the top 100 players of All-Time, but easily among the top 200.

(3) George Van Haltren (6th)-- Though the distance from 3rd to 45th on this ballot isn't particularly large, the CF glut strikes me as more worthy than any of the other clusters of candidates on the ballot. Van Haltren essentially matched Roush offensively and defensively while proving much more durable, playing in a one-league environment, and adding some pitching chits. That makes him--by a small but clear margin--the best of the 8 viable CF candidates.

(4) Stan Coveleski (8th)-- Gets a small bump up my ballot b/c/ I'm more certain he belongs in the HoM than the people he skips.

(5) Cupid Childs (4th)
(6) Hughie Jennings (10th)
(7) Heinie Groh (7th)--I think these guys bring essentially the same argument to the table--good to great fielders at key infield positions who dwarfed their positional contemporaries with the bat but excelled for less time than comparable hitting OF's. Jennings had a higher but shorter peak than the others, but those two attributes essentially balance out.

(8) Hugh Duffy (9th)-- His peak and prime lead the CF glut, but his career was somewhat shorter than the other major contenders. I think his combintation of offense, defense, baserunning, and savvy on a historically great team makes him a good candidate for one of the HoM's last spots.

(9) Frank Chance (11th)--Similar argument to the one I made for Duffy-- he was essentially even with McGraw and pre-injury Sisler as a hitter and roughly similar in defensive value, ranks slightly ahead of them on intangibles.

(10) Lip Pike (12th)-- HoM will survive just fine whether or not he gets in.

(11) Ed Roush (new)-- Very similar to VH in game-by-game value; very similar to Carey in aggregate value when his lack of durability is worked in. My personal sense of how much his team lost based on his frequent lineup absences slots him in here.

(12) Jimmy Ryan (14th)-- Right in the mix with the other CF, but a bit more inconsistent.

(13) Vic Willis (15th)-- I'm fairly confident he's the next best pitcher, but I doubt tha his teams would have been much worse if Carl Mays or Wilbur Cooper or Urban Shocker had (magically) gotten his starts.

(14) Max Carey (unranked)-- Worse on a game-by-game basis than VH, Duffy, Pike, Roush, Ryan, Griffin, Browning, and Fielder Jones, but unusually durable and with an extra-long career. Comparisons to Roush jump him onto my ballot.

(15) George Sisler (unranked)-- His pre-injury career is strikingly equivalent to the total careers of Chance and McGraw and he seems to deseve some positive credit for his post-injury years. Despite that, I slot him a few slots below Chance b/c/ I think Chance deserves some credit for his teams' success, because I think Chance's playing time was better leveraged, and because I'm something of a peak-prime voter and have Chance as slightly better over any peak period that includes more than Sisler's best two years.

Others of note in no particular order:

John McGraw is a very close 16th; Beckley slips off the ballot into about 17th place, b/c/ based on comparisons with the CF glut and with Sisler; Charley Jones is not far behind; Mike Griffin and Pete Browning are linked and within shouting distance despite their too short careers; Schang and Bresnahan are very much in the consideration set (around 20th), but are having a hard time demonstrating that they really played enough to make the ballot; the pitchers are a mess, though Redding, Mendez, and Welch are probably my next three in some order; Poles and Monroe remain nagging doubts in my brain--pegged 10 or 20 spots down the ballot but with strong cases for being higher; Waddell is off my radar screen, b/c/ his results are very similar to a big group of pitchers who didn't present the same headaches.
   6. Daryn Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:19 PM (#923004)
I’ve cut my consideration set to 42 – 16 pitchers, 26 hitters. The three highest balloters I am not considering are Charley Jones, John McGraw and Fielder Jones. I’m not sure what that means.

1. Harry Heilman – I like the batting average and the OPS+.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data is helping Welch – those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe.

3. Cristobal Torriente – nice ball player – maybe a little worse than Clemente will be.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. has him as the best first baseman in baseball for a long time. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

5. George Sisler – how can you keep the guy who has the second best single season hit total out of the Hall of Merit? Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter.

6. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

7. Lip Pike – 4 monster seasons, 4 more not too bad, plus 4 undocumented.

8. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

9. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. That being said, he is barely better than what is now a 10 person pitching glut.

10. Redding – probably the 6th or 7th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams, Paige, Foster, Foster and Rogan), and that is good enough for me.

11. Cupid Childs – nice obp.

12. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

13. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

14. Heinie Groh – hard for me to analyze – I know he is not better than Leach in my mind and he is definitely better than the rest of the thirdbasemen. I’ll be glad when you elect him.

15. Stan Coveleski – I can’t really see a huge difference between Waddell (6) and Shocker (mid-30s). So Coveleski is somewhere in between. I really wish someone could do an analysis of the differences between the eligible pitchers who have between 190 and 215 wins. I can’t tell them apart without a program.

The rest

16. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

17. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right.

18. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Could be below Duffy.

19. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

20. Jennings – Big bump up from me (see the 1936 ballot thread about the Orioles’ pitchers not being very good) -- he may get more consideration from me a few decades from now, when Koufax starts to exist. But he was no Koufax.

21 to 26.

·Max Carey – I never thought 350 Win Shares could rank so low, but I don’t think he is much better than Van Haltren.

·George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

·Spotswood Poles – Van Haltren seems like a good comp.

·Edd Roush – little difference between Carey, GVH, Poles, Roush, Ryan and Duffy.

·Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

·Hugh Duffy – 10 strong seasons, good black ink.

27 and 28. Veach and Hooper – I don’t think they will make my ballot. But if one of them does I may defer to Hooper’s 321 Win Shares and 2500 hits.

29. Ben Taylor – Starting him low. I have him somewhere between here and Monroe.

30. Dobie Moore – about here; also could be as high as Monroe – I don’t have a very good handle on the second tier blackballers.

31. Gavvy Cravath – I’m not sure how to treat his non-ML time, but I do think one of the purposes of the HoM is to take into account great achievers outside the majors. Baker Bowl issues keep him here.

32. Konetchy – 287 Win Shares, but nothing really impressive on his resume, particularly for a firstbaseman. Belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.

33. Larry Doyle – not a bad hitter for a second baseman and it wasn’t a particularly strong decade for NL second sackers.

Somewhere between 16 and 42. McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin -- pitcher glut; any of these guys could make my ballot if it ever has fewer than 4 pitchers on it; not that I have an actual quota.
   7. Philip Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:32 PM (#923018)
Easy ballot this year. Redding is the only newcomer to fit in.

1. Torriente (6-4-3) – Torriente beats Heilmann on peak and career.
2. Heilmann (4) – More career value than Pike even though the latter had much more defensive value, especially as secondbaseman.
3. Pike (2-2-7-5-5) – He was a star as a secondbaseman in the 60’s and a centerfielder in the 70’s. A star in this era should rate higher than just a very good player from any other era.
4. Covaleski (8-6-6) – Just a little better for longer than the other pitchers on the ballot. More peak than Cooper, more career than Shocker.
5. Griffith (3-4-9-7-7) – Covaleski with a little less peak
6. Groh (12-10-8) – Tremendous peak and enough career for a thirdbaseman, considering the attrition rate at this position.
7. Leach (8-10-13-11-9) – Another infielder who is greatly underrated. Similar career to Ryan/VH comes out ahead when taking into account his time at third base. Probably just on the good side of my in/out line.
8. Mendez (7-7-15-13-10) – Great peak, a little more career and he would be a clear HOMer. Now he is still a borderline candidate.
9. Van Haltren (5-10-8-8-11) – Made my pHoM a few years ago and was probably the last of the 19th century to do so.
10. Ryan (6-6-11-9-12) – Nearly identical to VH

11. Shocker (14-12-13) – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot based on his great peak. Underrated by this group.
12. Carey (15-14) – More career value than any of the remaing candidates who have at least a distinguishable peak.
13. Redding (new) – Using Chris Cobb’s Win Share estimates, he rates very similar to Cooper.
14. Cooper (19-21-17-16-15) – Makes my ballot for the second time. Still have to see if he stood out enough from his pears to remain so high.

15. C. Jones (17-19-21-22-16) – Back on my ballot, Charlie leads a large group of very good players who I don’t feel are HoM-worthy.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:35 PM (#923025)
The three highest balloters I am not considering are Charley Jones, John McGraw and Fielder Jones.

It means that you are a gutless conformist who can not deviate from the HoM group think around here! :-)
   9. PhillyBooster Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:35 PM (#923026)
Back to "normal," with a ballot not topped by 1934 stars. Schang looked strong, until I realized that in any given year contemporary Schalk was better. Roush looked good until I realized that in any given year contemporary Carey was better. Redding looked good, but I'm not entirely convinced yet. He has fallen from "near the top" to "near the bottom", but he is still on the ballot this year as the only new guy.

1. Jake Beckley (3) -- Back to the top.

2. Mickey Welch (4) -- Giving adequate credit to durability gives him enough credit to get up to the top. Compared to later decades, the 1880s is not short on pitchers, and I can certainly see adding one more.

3. Cristobal Torriente (5) -- Greatest Cuban player on the ballot

4. Harry Heilmann (7) -- Still think he was a BAD fielder. He's essentially even with Cravath in terms of complete value. Gets a small boost for performing that value in the ML instead of the PCL and AA.

5. Jose Mendez (6) -- Greatest Cuban pitcher on the ballot

6. Gavy Cravath (8) -- Greatest PCL, American Association, and dead-ball slugger on the ballot.

7. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- Greatest catcher on the ballot. New look at "rate" stat knocks him up another notch in my book.

8. Lip Pike (9) -- Greatest NA player on the ballot

9. Pete Browning (11) -- Greatest AA star on the ballot.

10. Max Carey (12) -- Better than Roush.

11. Bill Monroe (13) -- Still here. The forgotten man.

12. Clark Griffith (14) -- Greatest 1890s pitcher on the ballot. Never the "best", but always one of them.

13. Dick Redding (n/e) -- I like pitchers.

14. Heinie Groh (15) -- Top eligible third baseman, unless Ed Williamson was better.

15. Ed Cicotte (off) -- Still waiting for the pro-Coveleski masses to make the case that Stan was better. I just don't see it on any measure.

16. Coveleski
17. Childs
18. Roush
19. van Haltren
20. Chance
   10. PhillyBooster Posted: October 18, 2004 at 03:40 PM (#923031)
Required Disclosures:

Stan Coveleski and George van Haltren: I hereby disclose that far too many people are ranking Coveleski and van Haltren above Ed Cicotte and Bill Monroe, among others. Act upon this disclosure as you see fit.
   11. TomH Posted: October 18, 2004 at 04:20 PM (#923078)
I hereby act on the disclosure, with the caveat that I've been doin way too many toher things to have read all of the previous Stan/Eddie material:

Cicotte allowed a LOT of unearned runs, compared with Coveleksi. Safe to guess much of this was Ed's knuckleball, since knucklers very often have a higher % of unearned runs charged to them. Stan's ERA+ advantage is 127 to 123, but his RA+ difference is double that.
   12. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2004 at 04:41 PM (#923114)
Another thing on Coveleski's side: He played a good chunk of his career in the tougher Lively Ball Era than Cicotte. Little bit easier racking up innings pitched when the propensity to give up gopher balls is very rare.
   13. Chris Cobb Posted: October 18, 2004 at 05:04 PM (#923153)
To follow up on Tom H.:

This difference also shows up big-time in DERA:

Coveleski 3.58
Cicotte 3.85

And in WARP 1/3
Coveleski 87.4/77.4
Cicotte 76.9/62.3

This difference in effectiveness more than makes up for the 141.3 innings advantage held by Cicotte.

Coveleski also had significantly more excellent seasons, 8 times each in the top 10 in IP and ERA+, to Cicotte's 5 in each.

Coveleski trails Cicotte slightly in black ink, 22 to 27, but leads him substantially in gray ink, 193 to 167.

Cicotte leads very slightly in career win shares, 247 to 245 and in best 3 seasons 94 to 90, but Coveleski leads in best 5 consecutive by a wide margin, 142 to 114.

Coveleski leads Cicotte by a large margin in several measures and by a small margin in others; Cicotte leads Coveleski by a small margin in a few measures.

We have a number of difficult distinctions to make in this election, but seeing that Coveleski is superior to Cicotte is not one of them. If you trust only on the measures that suggest they are close, surely the variance in their post-season performances would break a tie in favor of Coveleski?
   14. DanG Posted: October 18, 2004 at 05:25 PM (#923177)
My #1 and #2 were elected again. Dispensing with old exhibits this year. The backlog grows in 1937 as Redding, Roush and Schang pile on. We’ll elect a couple from the backlog in 1938 as we welcome the weakest group since 1924. In 1939 it’ll take some serious study to sort out the top of the ballot; Red Faber and Joe Sewell lead a big gob of glut that also includes Maranville, Rixey and Quinn.

1)Harry Heilmann – Close to being one of the top 100 players of all-time. A first-ballot HoMer in many years.

2)Crist?bal Torriente (4,4,6) – Everything points to him being a HoMer. Either him, Mackey or Suttles will be the next NeLer in the Cooperstown Baseball Hall.

3)Lip Pike (5,5,7) –If the HoM is about respect for all eras, then Pike is a “n-b”. IMO, his era is very underrepresented and he seems unchallenged as the best remaining candidate. Number of HoMers playing regularly during his career:
1866: 2 (Pearce, Start)
1867: 3 (the above 2 plus Wright)
1868: 5 (above 3, Barnes, Spalding)
1869: 7 (above 5, White, McVey)
1870: 8 (above 7, Sutton)
1871: 9 (above 8, Anson)
1872: 10 (above 9, O’Rourke)
1873: 11 (above 10, Hines)
1874: 11
1875: 11
1876: 10 (Pearce token)
1877: 9 (Barnes injured)
1878: 11 (Start, Wright, White, McVey, Sutton, Anson, O’Rourke, Hines, Bennett, Kelly, Ward)

In 1879 it explodes to 16; in 1881 it hits 20 and stays at 18+ until the late teens.

The rest of these guys wouldn’t be bad HoMers, but I can’t justify ranking any of them among the top three, above my personal “Clearly deserving” line.

4)George Van Haltren (6,6,8)—The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 29th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan actually played more corner outfield.

5)Clark Griffith (7,8,10) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Could hit a little, too.

6)Stan Coveleski (11,15,--) – Another move up, as it is clear he is in the same class as Griffith. Easily outshines Mays. FWIW, Stan and Carl are each others most similar player (945). About a year ago I did a close look at Mays-Ferrell-Walters, having always assumed that Mays was the most deserving of the HOF of that trio. I ended up changing my mind and putting Mays 3rd. While his raw stats are superficially better than the other two, he played half his career in the deadball era while spending nearly his entire career with excellent teams.

7)Max Carey (9,9,ne) – Could move up. His career win shares and WARP3 are very similar to Heilmann’s, as his fielding and base stealing add enormously to his OPS+. He missed most of the 1919 season due to injury or illness (sources conflict). Why did his career suddenly nosedive after 1925? Is there any reason to doubt the conclusion that he was a scintillating fielder?

8)Tommy Leach (8,7,9) – With 3B and CF lagging in HoM members, you’d think he’d get more attention. Longevity, defense and speed keep him above Groh. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke).

9) Jimmy Ryan (10,10,11)—Played with St. Paul in Western Lg in 1901. Best Power-Speed Number, 1886-1920:
1—184.0 J. Ryan

10)George Sisler (12,ne,ne) – Jake or George. I think Sisler is still among the top 220 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley, so he stays off my ballot til next year. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era?

11)Heinie Groh (13,14,15) – His subtle skills must not have impressed kingmaker Frisch. Groh’s hitting is in the HoMer class; glove looks pretty good. Played 2B two years, then 3B for ten yrs. Outstanding peak, similar career length to Williamson. Mediocre power and speed. Was replaced by Freddie Lindstrom as Giants’ 3B. Highest career FA, 3B, 1876-1927, minimum 750 games at 3B:

1—.967 H. Groh

12)Edd Roush – Between Hooper and Ryan seems about right.

13)Wally Schang – Not terribly sure about this ranking. Catcher bonus puts him here for now.

14)Roger Bresnahan (14,11,12) – Catcher is the most poorly represented position in the HOM. Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+.

15)Harry Hooper (15,12,13) – Hard to see why Beckley shows up on over three times as many ballots in each of the past three elections. Per adjusted win shares, his peak was better than Beckley’s. I see him at 34.5 for the abbreviated 1918 season. His 27.4 in 1916 is also better than Jake’s best, 26.6 in 1890. A couple bulk seasons at the end of his career in a weak NL give Beckley 28 more career AWS.
   15. ronw Posted: October 18, 2004 at 06:15 PM (#923286)
1937 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. I'll gladly incorporate WARP when they clearly tell me how they reach their numbers.)

1. Harry Heilmann A great, great hitter. MVP candidate 1923, 1927, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1919-1922, 1924-1926, 1928-1930, war credit 1918. (15 HOM seasons.) PHOM 1937.

2. Christobal Torriente Big gap between him and below. PHOM 1937.

3. George Van Haltren Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929. (Missing HOMer from my PHOM is Bobby Wallace)

4. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters, but I’m a career/prime man. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928. (Missing HOMer from my PHOM is Mordecai Brown.)

5. Max Carey Joins the long career, low-peak glut. MVP Candidate 1922-1923, All-Star candidate 1912-1918, 1920-1921, 1924-1925 (13 HOM seasons) Looks like he’ll make my PHOM in 1938, with Bobby Wallace (finally!).

6. Jimmy Ryan My system likes Jimmy about as much as Van Haltren and Sheckard. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930. (Missing HOMer from my PHOM is Bob Caruthers.)

7.Ben Taylor Ben’s lengthy, solid career belongs with the long career, low-peak glut.

8. Edd Roush Another long-career outfielder. MVP candidate 1919-1920, All-Star candidate 1915, 1917-1918, 1921, 1923-1927, 1929 (12 HOM seasons)

9. Harry Hooper At the bottom of the long career, low-peak glut, which now takes up most of my ballot. MVP candidate 1918, All-Star candidate 1910-1917, 1919-20, 1922, 1924. (13 HOM seasons) PHOM 1931. (Missing HOMer from my PHOM is Sam Thompson, who is probably the only HOMer that will never make my PHOM.)

10. Dick Redding It seems most difficult to rate Negro League pitchers. Had a longer career than Mendez, although probably not as high a peak.

11. Wally Schang I am shocked that he rated this high, but I give significant catcher bonuses (bonii?) and favor long, steady careers. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1913-15, 1917, 1919-22, 1924, 1926, 1928 (11 HOM seasons)

12. Heinie Groh A rare infielder sighting on my ballot. Splits the long career, low-peak guys from the mid-length career, low-peak guys. MVP candidate 1917-1919. All-Star candidate 1914-1916, 1920-21, 1923-24. (10 HOM seasons).

13. Hugh Duffy At the top of the mid-career, low peak glut, ahead of guys like Mike Griffin, Fielder Jones, Charley Jones, George J. Burns etc. MVP candidate 1893-1894, All-Star candidate 1889-1892, 1895-1899. (11 HOM seasons)

14. Mickey Welch Solid pitcher is losing his luster as more 1880’s contemporaries join the HOM. With the lack of 1890’s quality, I think he still rates here. MVP candidate 1884-1885, All-Star candidate 1880-81, 1883, 1886-1889 (9 HOM seasons)

15. Tony Mullane I still don’t see much between Welch and Mullane. I know this puts me in the minority. MVP candidate 1882-1884, All-Star candidate 1886-1893 (11 HOM seasons)


Stan Coveleski – He’d be a shoo-in if you could add brother Harry’s 1914-1916 seasons. Since I can’t, I’ll say that he doesn’t have enough peak for me, but he's close. MVP candidate 1918, 1920, All-Star candidate 1917-1923, 1925-1926 (9 HOM seasons).

Lip Pike – The last 1870’s holdover nearly makes the ballot. MVP candidate 1876, All-star candidate 1871-75, 1877-78. Some credit for 1866-1870 (at least 10 HOM seasons)

Others who I would not be upset to see on my ballot, in no particular order: Cooper, GJ Burns, FJones, Willis, Schalk, Mays, Leach, Bresnahan, Thomas, Mendez, Poles, Griffin, Monroe, Sisler, Doyle
   16. PhillyBooster Posted: October 18, 2004 at 08:32 PM (#923581)
Tom offers:
Cicotte allowed a LOT of unearned runs, compared with Coveleksi. . . Stan's ERA+ advantage is 127 to 123, but his RA+ difference is double that.

Cicotte allowed 296 unearned runs in 3323 IP, for a 0.80 UERA.

Coveleski allowed 246 unearned runs in 3082 IP, for a 0.72 UERA.

There is definitely a difference there, but I hardly think it deserves a capital LOT. Either way, I consider them within the margin of error for quality, with a little edge for Cicotte on quantity.

John adds:
Another thing on Coveleski's side: He played a good chunk of his career in the tougher Lively Ball Era than Cicotte. Little bit easier racking up innings pitched when the propensity to give up gopher balls is very rare.

As I showed in the 1934 discussion thread, however, Coveleski's peers were MORE likely to have longer careers than Cicotte's. Differentiating their "eras" (if that's even appropriate for pitchers who are only 5 years apart in age), Coveleski was 8th in IP among pitchers who hit age 27 between 1916 and 1920, while Cicotte was 5th among those who hit age 27 betwen 1911 and 1915.

Pitcher who had their Age 27 year between 1916 and 1920, by innings pitched, with ERA+ in parenthesis.

Here is Cicotte's: those who turned age 27 from 1911-1915.


Years: Pitchers with 3000+ IP, Pitchers with 2000+ IP (including also those with 3000+)

1906-1910: 4, 16
1911-1915: 6, 15
1916-1920: 9, 24
1921-1925: 5, 14
1926-1930: 8, 15
1931-1935: 4, 17
1936-1940: 3, 13

So, despite theories of longevity, Coveleski was part of a mini-IP boom, making his innings total comparatively less impressive.


This difference in effectiveness more than makes up for the 141.3 innings advantage held by Cicotte.

But does it make up for a 241.3 inning advantage? In an era when any old Bush, Dauss, or Cooper could throw 3000 innings?

Meanwhile, while "rules are rules", does no one take into account that Coveleski wasn't playing by the same rules as everyone else? The spitball-grandfather abomination has to be taken into account here.
   17. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 18, 2004 at 08:53 PM (#923619)
Meanwhile, while "rules are rules", does no one take into account that Coveleski wasn't playing by the same rules as everyone else?

Absolutely not and nobody here should either, IMO. What he did was 100% legal and he should not be penalized one iota for it (especially when it doesn't appear there was a marked increase in his performance after 1920). Besides, if it's a battle between Coveleski and Cicotte concerning "rules are rules," the latter is going to be obliterated.

As I showed in the 1934 discussion thread, however, Coveleski's peers were MORE likely to have longer careers than Cicotte's.

That's not where I was going, Matt. I was referring to innings per each particular season (which augments a player's peak), not the total number of innings after a certain age. IOW, many pitchers were able to meet the 300 innings threshold during the early seventies compared to now, but that doesn't mean that the Ryans, Woods and Perrys would be to do so in 2004.
   18. Chris Cobb Posted: October 18, 2004 at 09:05 PM (#923642)
But does it make up for a 241.3 inning advantage?

So my hasty math is poor. But it's pretty obvious that Coveleski's greater effectiveness more than makes up for one season's more innings on Cicotte's side. WARP thinks it more than makes up for it. WS sees them as pratically even in career value, which means that Coveleski's greater effectiveness a) closes the distance in career value and b) puts him ahead on peak value. My own analysis of support-neutral performance agrees completely with WARP on this one.

Meanwhile, while "rules are rules", does no one take into account that Coveleski wasn't playing by the same rules as everyone else? The spitball-grandfather abomination has to be taken into account here.

In a word, no. Coveleski didn't make the rules, he played by the rules as they were given to him, and we have _no way_ of knowing what he might have done otherwise.
   19. EricC Posted: October 18, 2004 at 10:24 PM (#923850)
1937 ballot. Voting early this time.

1. Wally Schang (N) Yes, I like catchers. 245 career Win Shares the most of any major league catcher to date. Does well on Keltner list. George Davis was a regular player for 18 years and had a 121 OPS+. Schang was (for his position) a regular for 17 years and had a 117 OPS+ at a tougher defensive position. I don't expect you to buy the argument that Schang = Davis, but it may not be as crazy as it seems. The biggest problem with Schang is that, by the time he retired, we have seen Cochrane, Dickey, Hartnett, Mackey, and a little of what Gibson could do. I think that it is fair to compare Schang with these others to the extent that their careers overlapped.

2. Harry Heilmann (N-3 last year) Didn't realize how good he was until participating in this project. Dominated RF so much over such a stretch that he easily makes the top half of my PHoM. A very "odd" player, batting 0.362 in odd years and only 0.323 in even years.

3. Stan Coveleski (N-6-4-4) Among the top of a huge upcoming glut of 1920s-era pitchers. While part of me recognizes that it's unfair that legal spitball pitchers such as Shocker, Coveleski, and Faber do so well in my system, the other part accepts that life isn't fair. I have to like Coveleski's 3082 IP and 127 ERA+.

4. Cristobal Torriente (N-7-5-5) I would think that he would have to be elected to Cooperstown eventually. His career record looks like that of a mid-to-upper level HoFer who was kept out of the major leagues.

5. Roger Bresnahan (3-8-6-6) Best catcher of the 00s.

6. Harry Hooper (6-11-8-8) Longevity, defense, and AL strength. Players like Hooper and Schalk are not the most appealing, but there is a consistent logic that shows them as ballot-worthy and not obvious HoF mistakes.

7. Jake Beckley (4-9-7-7) Considering that 1B was not a hitter's position for much of his career, he did have enough peak to make him HoM-worthy. As far as his defense, more career chances and putouts than any other player, ever.

8. George "Rube" Waddell (5-10-9-10) 142 ERA+; 3 ERA+ titles; 6 consecutive strikeout titles. Not many pitchers have a resume like that.

9. Jose Mendez (11-X-10-9) Add Holway's W/L data from 1910 to 1913 and Mendez was 59-19, and he was still capable of dominating a decade later.

10. Ray Schalk (12-14-12-11) Does well in longevity, league strength, and defense. Led league in defensive win shares for position 9 times, more than any other infielder except for Ozzie Smith, who led 10 times. Win Shares does not break down outfielders by position, so I can't compare, but Speaker was among top 3 outfielders 11 times; Max Carey 10 times.

11. Eddie Cicotte (7-12-11-12) 3223 IP; 123 ERA+; 1 ERA+ title, came in second twice to Walter Johnson, and once to Babe Ruth(!).

12. Urban Shocker (13-X-13-13) He never had a losing record or an ERA below league average. There is added value in never having off-years.

13. Heinie Groh (8-13-14-14) Great 3B at his peak. Career not as long as I'd like, and was in the NL, so I have him slightly lower than most.

14. George Van Haltren (9-15-15-15) Pitching value and the fact that he played more centerfield lifts him just above Ryan.

15. Lip Pike. (15-X-X-X) By the standards the electorate has applied to 1870s players, he's clearly the next in line, but doesn't have enough to get in without credit for pre-1871 play. Good evidence for being a star 1866-1870. All in all, still leaves an annoying amount of uncertainty.

Hughie Jennings. I like Hughie, and I'm slowly tweaking my ratings to increase their peak-friendliness. That should help him.

Max Carey. I don't think that 351 Wins Shares is equal to the sum of its parts in this case. Part of it is what I believe was relative NL weakness, part of it is his lack of peak, part of it is the comparison with peers at same position when these peers included Cobb and Speaker. Perhaps comparable to Brett Butler.

Edd Roush. Better than Carey when he was on the field, didn't play as many games. Ends up slightly behind Carey in my rankings.

Dick Redding. Very good for a long time. I have him as similar to Vic Willis, but could be underrating him.

Chino Smith. Hit for average, hit for power. Regrets that I can't be fair to players like Smith, Joss, Youngs, Chapman, and so many others who died young.
   20. Chris Cobb Posted: October 19, 2004 at 12:09 AM (#924293)
1937 Ballot

1. Cristobal Torriente. (3) A shoo-in for 1937.
2. Harry Heilmann. (4) Right behind Torriente.
3. Stan Coveleski. (5). Unlike the other eligible pitchers with similar records, Coveleski didn’t benefit from above-average run support or fielding support. My system sees him as 41.5 wins better than an avg. pitcher over his career. That's a pretty good indicator of Coveleski’s merit in comparison to the other eligible pitchers.
4. Clark Griffith. (6) Best remaining player from the still-underrepresented 1890s. Statistically similar to Coveleski, but at a time when his innings pitched didn’t mean as much. My system sees him as 35.9 wins better than an average pitcher over his career. I hope he will get a very serious look for election in 1939-40.
5. Hughie Jennings (7) During his 1894-1898 peak, he was the best position player in baseball, and better than a pair of contemporary first-ballot HoMers, Billy Hamilton and Ed Delahanty, who were also at their peaks during these years.
6. Mickey Welch. (8) 8th-10th best player of the 1880s. We have “enough” 1880s pitchers, but not necessarily the right ones. Welch belongs in. My system sees him as 26 wins better than an average pitcher, which is quite a bit lower than Griffith and Coveleski, but much more of 1880s pitchers’ values lay in being average.
7. Heinie Groh (9). One of the best peaks of the teens, setting aside the all-time greats.
8. Dick Redding (n/e). A big move up from my preliminary ballot. I had made two estimates of Redding’s career value. My ranking on the prelim ballot was based on the lower estimate. When I looked at Redding again, I realized that the lower estimate would be underestimating his value for the same reasons that the higher estimate was overrating his vale. So I averaged the two, and that moved him from the bottom of the ballot to the middle. I had seen his as similar to Wilbur Cooper, but 10% better. I now see him as similar to Red Faber, but 5% worse. My MLE projections see him as 26.5 wins better than an average pitcher.
9. Jose Mendez (10) Career Cuban winter-league record of 59-18, if achieved with avg. support, would translate into a 150 ERA+ in major-league competition. Even assuming he was pitching for good teams, they would have to have been powerhouses indeed for Mendez to get that W-L record without being a solid HoMer. Negro League record of 40-14 tells the same story, and much of that record came while pitching for the Cuban Stars, who didn’t do much more than break even against the American black teams of that era. My MLE projections seem him as 31.0 wins better than an average pitcher, but in 1000 fewer IP than Redding.
10. Max Carey (11). Despite not being as valuable on a per-game basis as Roush, his durability makes up most of the difference. My weighing of peak, career, and rate stats has Carey and Roush dead even, so if WS is undervaluing defense _at all_, then Carey would rank ahead. That breaks the tie.
11. Edd Roush (n/e). Less career than Carey or Van Haltren, but has the peak that they lack. A great contributor to a World Series winner.
12. George Van Haltren (12) All-around, consistent talent.
13. Tommy Leach (13) Another player similar to Carey. Last star of the aughts who is a serious candidate for election in my view. He slipped through the cracks in the teens elections, but I think he’ll continue to rise now.
14. Lip Pike. (14) Still around (35th consecutive appearance on my ballot), treading water until the next gap in great new arrivals gives an early player another shot at election. He had a great peak, however one adjusts for era.
15. Urban Shocker (14) A very underrated player; he might well be a HoMer. He had a couple of great seasons in 1920 and 1921, and he was above average every single year he pitched. In comparing Shocker to a pitcher like Waddell, the electorate should keep in mind that average innings pitched for a starting pitcher dropped from an average of 277 for 1900-1909 to 230 for 1917-1926 as conditions for pitchers became increasingly difficult. In that context, Shocker’s innings-pitched totals are as good as Waddell’s, and he was a more consistently effective pitcher. My system sees him as 30.0 wins above an average pitcher.

Top Ten Returning Players from 1935 Who Don’t Make my 1936 Ballot

Rube Waddell; see #22 below
Jake Beckley: see #40 below
   21. Chris Cobb Posted: October 19, 2004 at 12:10 AM (#924298)
1937 Off-Ballot

16. George Sisler (16).
17. Larry Doyle (17).
18. Spotswood Poles (18)
19. Harry Hooper (19).
20. Hugh Duffy (20).
21. Wilbur Cooper (21) 26.3 wins above average.
22. Rube Waddell (22) See Shocker comment above for more on how I compare Waddell to later pitchers. Waddell was a great talent, and he was one of the greatest characters in the history of major-league baseball. He’s thus deserving of his place in the Hall of Fame, but I think his value is just below the threshold for Hall of Merit induction. In the context of his time, just the eighth-best pitcher of the aughts. My system sees him as 30.7 wins above average for his career.
23. Carl Mays (23). 18.1 wins above average (batting value not included)
24. Roger Bresnahan (26). Moves up on reassessment of catcher rate stats.
25. Wally Schang (n/e). Moves up considerably on my preliminary ballot after I recalculated his peak rate based on PA rather than games. He’s still a good ways off from my ballot, though, and Bresnahan still has the slightest of edge among eligible catchers based on his really phenomenal peak rate. For those worried about the underrepresentation of catcher, I’ll note that after the 1936 season, there are five active catchers who look much better than Bresnahan, Petway, or Schang. Hartnett, Cochrane, and Mackey already look like future HoMers. Bill Dickey has put in eight strong years for the Yankees so far, and Josh Gibson has cut quite a swath in his first seasons in the Negro Leagues. If he keeps hitting like this, he could rank among the all-time greats.
26. Ben Taylor (24)
27. Bobby Veach (25)
28. Jimmy Ryan (27)
29. Cupid Childs (28).
30. Fielder Jones (29)
31. Dobie Moore (30)
32. Gavvy Cravath (31)
33. Herman Long (32)
34. Tommy Bond (33) 26.0 wins above average
35. George J. Burns (34)
36. Charley Jones (35)
37. Bruce Petway (36)
38. Bill Monroe (37)
39. Babe Adams (38) 24.6 wins above average
40. Jake Beckley (38) Like Childs, Beckley just doesn’t appear outstanding in comparison to his contemporaries. Lack of better first-basemen could give him a positional boost, but right now I don’t see the justification for a positional bonus for first base.

Other pitchers of interest in career wins above average

Sam Leever 25.4
Eddie Cicotte 22.0
Vic Willis 20.8

Other new arrivals worthy of note

Chino Smith -- great hitter for a few years, but his untimely death prevented him from having a great career.
   22. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 19, 2004 at 04:28 AM (#925411)
My MLE projections see him as 26.5 wins better than an average pitcher.

Does that mean you have new WS projections for him? If you have, would you mind posting them on his page? Thanks!
   23. Rusty Priske Posted: October 19, 2004 at 12:21 PM (#925528)
Sorry about the lack of comments. I'm just back from dealing with a death in the family and things are a bit hectic.

PHoM inductees: Harry Heilmann & Cristobel Torriente.

1. Harry Heilmann (3,x,x)
2. Max Carey (4,4,x)
3. George Van Haltren (7,5,6)
4. Jake Beckley (6,7,7)
5. Cristobel Torriente (5,8,12)
6. Mickey Welch (8,6,8)
7. Lip Pike (9,9,9)
8. Edd Roush (new)
9. Tommy Leach (10,12,10)
10. Jimmy Ryan (11,10,11)
11. Harry Hooper (12,11,14)
12. George Sisler (x,x,x)
13. Hugh Duffy (13,13,13)
14. Hienie Groh (14,14,15)
15. Bill Monroe (15,15,x)

16-20. Griffith, Childs, Powell, Poles, Doyle
21-25. Mullane, Willis, McCormick, F. Jones, White
26-30. Gleason, G.J.Burns, Waddell, Moore, Konetchy
   24. Chris Cobb Posted: October 19, 2004 at 01:15 PM (#925556)
My MLE projections see him as 26.5 wins better than an average pitcher.

Does that mean you have new WS projections for him? If you have, would you mind posting them on his page? Thanks!

No new projections. This number is derived from my MLE support-neutral projected w-l record of 230-177 for Redding.
   25. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 19, 2004 at 01:39 PM (#925577)
Gotcha, Chris.

Sorry about the lack of comments. I'm just back from dealing with a death in the family and things are a bit hectic.

Sorry to hear that, Rusty.
   26. jhwinfrey Posted: October 19, 2004 at 04:07 PM (#925835)
1937 ballot:
Cristobal Torriente & Harry Heilmann are my PHoM inductees.

1. Cristobal Torriente (6,4,3): Best hitter on the ballot. (1937)
2. Jake Beckley (6,3,5,4,4,3,3,4,8,5,4): Steady hitter with a long career--a manager's dream. (1927)
3. Mickey Welch (1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,7,6,5): Best pitcher on the ballot, again. (1926)
4. Harry Heilmann(6): Great rate stats, good counting stats, and dynamite on a BLT. (1937)
5. Max Carey (7,7): Excellent defender, and not much behind Heilmann on offense.
6. Ben Taylor (11,8,8): Very similar to Carey and Beckley, and he was a better pitcher than Wallace or Van Haltren.
7. Tommy Leach (9): Best 3rd baseman on the ballot--still one of most underrated guys in line.
8. Edd Roush (ne): Very solid career, just not quite the peak of Heilmann or the career of Carey.
9. Carl Mays (9,10): His hitting and fielding skills put him at the top of my pitching glut.
(9a. Bobby Wallace)
(9b. Sherry Magee)
10. Jose Mendez (4,8,13,13,11): Best hitting pitcher on the ballot. (1932)
11. Jim McCormick (15,nr,13,15,nr,15,12): Packed a lot of production in about 10 seasons.
12. Vic Willis (13): A longer career than McCormick, but not quite as dominant.
13. Dick Redding (ne): Just a notch below Mendez, at least for now.
14. Stan Coveleski (14): A solid career, but he doesn't stand out from the pack for me.
15. Dave Bancroft (15): Great fielder, good hitter.

Just missed:
16. Oliver Marcelle
17. Wilbur Cooper
18. Ed Konetchy
19. Hooks Dauss
20. Bruce Petway

Contractually Obligated Comments:
22. George Van Haltren--still in the Hall of Very Good.
49. Lip Pike--Not much of a fielder, and less productive than he should have been. His rate stats and lengthy career don't give him enough of a boost, in my opinion.
60. Heinie Groh--I'm not sure if anyone else has him lower; I've been low on Groh since he became eligible--and I'm giving him a positional bonus just to get him this high. I just see him as slightly above average, in fielding, offense, and career length.
   27. Rick A. Posted: October 19, 2004 at 04:33 PM (#925888)
Cristobal Torriente - Could do everything. Run, Field , Hit ,Throw. The Carlos Beltran of his time. (Not arguing that Beltran is a HOMer, just comparing him to 2004 Carlos Beltran)
Harry Heilmann

1937 Ballot
1.Cristobal Torriente – Blows HOMer Pete Hill away. Great career and peak value.
2.Charley Jones – Very good hitter, though. 96% of value is above average. Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
3.Harry Heilmann – Slightly behin Jones on peak, but clear HOMer.
4.Lip Pike – 95% of documented career is above average. Fresh look at Charley Jones, Pike, and Browning made me change my order of them. Elected PHOM in 1918.
5.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
6.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average.
7.Stan Coveleski – Not sure if I’m overrating him or underrating him. Need to see some more of his contemporaries to get a real handle on him.
8.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days.
9.Carl Mays – Just a hair behind Coveleski
10.Jose Mendez – Slotted between Foster and Waddell. Took a closer look with Redding on the ballot. Like his peak over Redding’s career
11.Heinie Groh – I’m very mixed on Groh. I like his peak and that he was the best 3rd baseman of his time. However, his career is too short for my liking.
12.Ed Williamson – Overvalued him in previous elections. Much closer to Groh and Leach than I thought. Still a damn good player, though. Elected PHOM in 1931
13.Tommy Leach – Good peak and decent career. These 3 3rd basemen are very close. Could be listed in any order as far as I’m concerned. Like Groh's peak this week.
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense. Took another look at him and he moved up a couple of spots
15.Clark Griffith – Won lots of games with bad teams.

New Arrivals
Edd Roush – Peak value nudges him ahead of Carey. Just misses my ballot.
Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings. Just misses my ballot. May be underrating him and he could move up with new info.
Wally Schang – Better catcher than Bresnahan, but not as good a hitter. Not sure this is the right order. Need a closer look.
Chino Smith - Haven't really looked at him, but he seems to be below Dobie Moore, who is ranked 36 on my ballot.

Required Explanations
Max Carey – Not as much peak as I thought. Seems kind of like Van Haltren. Like the SB’s. Slightly behind Roush.
George Van Haltren –I tend to really like steady careers like Van Haltren, Griffin, Beckley, but just can’t see him jumping over anyone on my ballot. Falling deeper into the CF glut.
Jake Beckley - Lower peak than Van Haltren, in my top 50, but just barely.

16-20 Roush, Redding, Monroe, Carey, Cooper
21-25 Bresnahan, Schang, F. Jones, Van Haltren, Poles
26-30 Willis, Doyle, Waddell, Sisler, Bond
31-35 Tiernan, McGraw, Welch, Griffin, Chance
36-40 Moore, Burns, Veach, R. Thomas, Ryan
41-45 Taylor, Long, Dunlap, Beckley, Mullane
46-50 Joss, Hooper, McCormick, Bancroft, Tinker
   28. Jim Sp Posted: October 19, 2004 at 05:27 PM (#925987)
1) Torriente --Too bad he had to wait, very well qualified.
2)Heilmann--Might belong ahead of Torriente, not that it will matter. First two are easy choices, the rest of the ballot is hard to distinguish.
3)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
4)Groh--I guess where you put him depends on how much you like third basemen. Compares pretty well with Collins, only Baker is clearly better among 3B.
5)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production.
6)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
7)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive at all. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...looking for similar players I found Bresnahan, Lombardi, Munson, Walker Cooper, and Darrell Porter. Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
8)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
9)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
10)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so he’s not quite as impressive as I thought at first glance.
11)Coveleski--I expect he will be waiting on the bubble for a while.
12)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.
13)Joss—Comp is Koufax…a terrible hitter.
14)Mendez--I rate him right below Joss.
15)Ben Taylor--Not a lot of confidence in this placement.

Lip Pike-- Nothing to say that hasn’t already been repeated for 30 years.
Max Carey—Even with the fielding and baserunning, I don’t see that his hitting is enough to make the ballot.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   29. Buddha Posted: October 19, 2004 at 05:59 PM (#926067)
What is "PHoM"?
   30. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 19, 2004 at 06:37 PM (#926133)
What is "PHoM"?

Personal Hall of Merit.
   31. sunnyday2 Posted: October 19, 2004 at 07:10 PM (#926184)

1. Hughie Jennings (PHoM 1927) Still the highest peak of any eligible position player.

2. Harry Heilmann (PHoM 1937)

3. Heinie Groh (PHoM 1933) Second best 3B yet.

4. Cristobal Torriente (PHoM 1937)

5. Tommy Bond (PHoM 1929) Value is value. All of these guys are a product of their time. But just because it was "easy" for a pitcher to rack up value in those days, well, Bond still racked up more than anybody.

6. Lip Pike (PHoM 1928)

7. George Sisler--a sure PHoMer. So his peak was a half-step below Joe Jackson's. Absent boycott, Jackson was a first-ballot choice.

8. Charlie Jones (PHoM 1921) Hit like Pike, played less demanding defensive position.

9. Max Carey--one of the great defenders of all time.

10. Cannonball Dick Redding--drops two slots from prelim, after discussion. Agree that Mendez had better peak, Redding better career. Starting Redding out ahead of Mendez and therefore ahead of Mendez' comp, Waddell, and therefore ahead of Coveleski, but all four are close and not quite NBs.

11. Jose Mendez--see Redding.

12. Cupid Childs (PHoM 1925)--McPhee was never as good as Childs at his best.

13. Ed Williamson (PHoM 1924)--not sure those 27 HR actually hurt his team in '84. If they came so easy, how come teammates (and HoMers) King Kelly and George Gore only managed 10 between them?

14. Dave Bancroft--a beauty, for sure.

15. Stan Coveleski--moves ahead of Waddell, not sure why except I feel more compelled to have Stan on the ballot than Rube. If there was room for both, Rube might rank higher, who knows.

Drops off--Waddell
16-20. Waddell, Browning, Doyle, Duffy, Monroe.

Required: Beckley--no peak, ranks around #50.
Van Haltren--OK peak but not enough, ranks around #25.
   32. sunnyday2 Posted: October 19, 2004 at 07:15 PM (#926191)
Oops, forgot Edd Roush but not a big deal as he is #18 behind Browning and ahead of Doyle.

And Chino Smith #32 a few slots behind Dobie Moore. And Wally Schang around #40 about 15 slots behind Roger Bresnahan. I had Edgar Wesley at #100 on my prelim, that might be too low based on the Courier having him #3 among NeL 1Bs, but #75-80 is probably the best it gets. I think the Courier was wrong to have him ahead of Ben Taylor, who is only around #50 (close to Beckley one way or the other).
   33. Buddha Posted: October 19, 2004 at 10:23 PM (#926512)
1937. Personal ballot #2. Lots of hand wringing and head scratching done this time...

1) Harry Heilmann: No contest.

2) Rube Waddell: Dominating pitcher.

3) Stan Coveleski: Just a bit below Waddell.

4) George Sisler: Great peak. Great defense too.

5) Max Carey: No great peak, but such great defense at such an important position.

6) Cristobal Torriente: Still don't believe all of the hype. His #s get a big discount from me.

7) Hughie Jennings: Great peak, great in the field, but no longevity.

8) Jake Beckley: Then anit-Hughie, no great peak but lots of longevity.

9) Heine Groh: Yeah he was a 3b and there aren't that many of those represented but still, not so great...

10) Clark Griffith: Long career of being really good.

11) Cupid Childs: Kinda long career of being really good.

12) Pete Browning

13) Mickey Welch

14) Eddie Cicotte

15) Gavvy Cravath: If NLer stats count, shouldn't PCL and AA stats?

Just missed: Joss, Chance, Mays, Ryan, Duffy, Rousch, Veach
   34. yest Posted: October 20, 2004 at 12:45 AM (#926832)
1. George Sisler Bill James's biggest mistake (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Harry Heillman 4 batting titles (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Mickey Welch 15th in innings pitched (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
4. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
5. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
6. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
7. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
8. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
9. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
10. Edd Roush323 batting avg (makes my personal HoM this year)
11. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever
12. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
13. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
14. Lip Pike 465 slugging percentage (made my personal HoM in 1910)
15. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
16. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
17. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
18. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
19. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
20. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players not on my ballot
Cristobal Torriente see his thread for an explanation
Heinie Groh no third base bonus
Stan Coveleski he has a good shot at making my pHoM in the future
Max Carey has to low a batting average for me
   35. KJOK Posted: October 20, 2004 at 04:47 AM (#927972)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers.

1. HARRY HEILMANN, RF. .706 OWP. 469 RCAP. 8,960 PAs. Def: POOR. Similar to Browning, only with longer career.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

3. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than Van Haltren or Duffy.

4. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively.

5. STAN COVELESKIE, P. 282 RSAA! 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points. 127 ERA+ in 3,093 Innings.

6. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop.

7. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

8. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons blow away Beckley’s best. Perhaps best firstbaseman in the whole 1900-1920 time period.

9. RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings.

10. Cristobal Torriente, RF. Comps near Dwight Evans and Enos Slaughter.

11. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

12. HEINIE GROH, 3B. .598 OWP, 216 RCAP, 7,035 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Only Frank Baker was better in 1910’s era.

13. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Hack, Alomar, and Sandberg, which is a pretty high level.

14. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. He’s really not all that far away from McGinnity, but not that far from Silver King either. Moving up to just off ballot due to comparison with contemporaries.

15. MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.


EDD ROUSCH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

CHINO SMITH, RF/2B. Comps: Lip Pike maybe. Joe Jackson? Charlie Keller? Vlad Guerrero and Manny Ramirez? From ages 24-27, probably the best hitter in Negro League baseball, but early death makes him hard to place higher.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. One of few Negro League greats not recruited to the best teams. Comp is around Rick Reuschel.


JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

Max Carey, CF .556 OWP, 49 RCAP, 10,770 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Some very good years, but overall not enough offense for the HOM ballot.

LIP PIKE, CF. Perhaps best hitting CF of the 1870’s. Similar to Hack Wilson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

DAVE BANCROFT, SS. .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

JIMMY RYAN, CF/RF. .609 OWP. 205 RCAP. 9,114 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not quite up to top OF hitters, and only average defense won’t move him up.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that. Not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being on ballot.
   36. SWW Posted: October 20, 2004 at 04:48 AM (#927975)
With so many center fielders and pitchers under consideration, I took a new look at the numbers. A little juggling of the ballot, with a significant change near the bottom.

1937 Ballot
1) Harry Edwin Heilmann – “Slug”
I give him a slight advantage for his prodigious hitting, thus giving him the top spot. It’s really slight, though. I wouldn't mind at all seeing a tie for first.
2) Cristóbal Torriente
An extremely worthy candidate, with only Cobb, Speaker, Collins, Lloyd, Alexander, Williams and Heilmann standing in the way of the top spot. So Torriente has to wait four ballots, while Pete Hill was a first-ballot electee, which only goes to show the importance of good timing.
3) Max George Carey
I was prepared for him to suffer in the re-evaluation of center fielders. Actually came out looking better. Among other things, six times in the top 10 in WS in his league. I moved him up a slot.
4) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
Sisler’s arrival has led me to examine how I value career and prime. Sisler’s all prime, Jake’s all career with no peak at all, and that’s starting to trouble me. Still, it is a very good career, and James Vail’s numbers assure me that he stands apart from the crowd both in era and position. His lofty perch feels a little tenuous at the moment, though.
5) Henry Knight Groh – “Heinie”
Lots of good ink, especially for a third-sacker. My only concern is whether I’m overrating him because of his position, but I don’t think so. Excellent numbers at an undervalued position.
6) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Higher highs than Leach, which moves him up a slot. I see that some voters are docking him for his later years, when he was merely decent and not extraordinary. I’m not inclined to punish him for that, though. Which I guess tells you how I’ll feel about Ken Griffey, Jr. someday.
7) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
If he’d stayed at third, his numbers would probably give him an edge over Groh. He really did go back and forth, didn’t he? I should study the managerial decision behind that. I was surprised to discover that I was one of his best friends here. Hi, Tommy.
8) Hugh Duffy
I’m not all about OPS+, and I haven’t rejected the Triple Crown season out of hand, since it’s not like everyone else was doing it.
9) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
My numbers like him better than Childs. I thought that was due to career length, but they have a similar peak, and Doyle has a slightly higher prime. So I’m sticking with Larry.
10) Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
I prefer career candidates, so this really bothers me. I think he’s still here mainly because I believe in candidates like Dean and Koufax, and Hughie is sort of their shortstop equivalent. Dilemmas.
11) Edd J. Roush
Nice all-around numbers, and several MVP-type seasons. A decent candidate, although I’m starting him low.
12) Roger Philip Bresnahan – “The Duke of Tralee”
With Wally Schang’s arrival, I took another look at catchers, and realized I wasn’t giving Roger his due for time served at the backstop. Three of his five best seasons show him predominantly at catcher, and only three of his 17 seasons show him serving the majority of his games at another position. Schang is way too similar to Schalk. I'll stick with least until Cochrane comes along.
13) Harry Bartholomew Hooper
Really looks poor standing next to Heilmann. Solid career keeps him on the ballot, but he slips.
14) Carl William Mays
More dominant than Griffith, more durable than Waddell, more peak than Coveleski. I decided to break up my backlog of pitchers, and he won, with a little bit of an edge over…
15) Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
Definitely more highly-regarded than Mendez. Rough comparison leads me to believe he’s worthy of inclusion ahead of six other guys near the ballot. As always with the Negro Leagues, this ranking is based heavily on supposition, and may fluctuate wildly as new information comes in. I kind of got burned by Bingo DeMoss.

Dropping Out
Michael Francis Welch – “Smiling Mickey”
Pushed out by the new guys and my upgrading of Mays. A full re-evaluation of 19th Century candidates is due, and that will probably happen for the 1938 ballot. So Mickey will get another shot.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Stanley Anthony Coveleski
I keep looking at the numbers, and I like Mays better. Coveleski’s peak is just the tiniest bit higher, and considering Mays only has a couple more seasons uner his belt, that doesn’t strike me as signifying Stan’s dominance. And if peak’s the key, Waddell is definitely better. Clearly I’m in the minority on this, but I just don’t see it.
Lipman Emanuel Pike
The anecdotal evidence is interesting, and he actually fared well in my re-consideration of center fielders. But I still have him behind the three CFs I did put on the ballot, so there’s just no room. I wish he’d been a Dickey Pearce and redefined his position.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He doesn’t have the career numbers of Carey or the peak numbers of Duffy, and he’s nearly interchangable with Jimmy Ryan. He’s good, but it’s not enough.

Just Because
Bibb August Falk
The baseball stadium at my alma mater is co-named after Bibb Falk, so I just wanted to take a moment to give this fine gentleman his due. Hook ‘em, Bibb.
   37. DavidFoss Posted: October 20, 2004 at 12:40 PM (#928180)
1937 Ballot

1. Harry Heilmann (ne-3) -- 148 OPS+ in 8960 PA. Monster 1921-27 peak. Probably just below his predecessor, Sam Crawford.
2. Cristobal Torriente (ne-6-4-4) -- The type of OF candidate I've ranked high in the past. High peak, medium length career.
3. Lip Pike (5-4-2-1-2-2-1-1-1-2-2-7-5-5) -- Pick Lip! Great 155 OPS+ CF in the NA/NL. Solid pre-NA play includes time at 2B. Brooklyn's best slugger in '70, second to Start in '69, also had excellent 'rookie' season on great Athletics squad in '66.
4. Heinie Groh (ne-4-8-6-6) -- Best 3rd baseman of the late teens. Peak is not close to McGraw's but doesn't have the career issues that Johnny Mack has.
5. Stan Coveleski (ne-9-7-7) -- 127 ERA+ over 3000 IP. Best human pitcher between 1915 and 1925.
6. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
7. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
8. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues -- even for this peak voter -- are keeping him below Groh.
9. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, though. Unlike McGraw, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career rate stats a bit. Also unlike McGraw, he was quite durable inside his peak.
10. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
11. Mickey Welch (nr-14-11-11-12-15-13-13) -- 300 game winner. Played for great teams in an easy era to win games, but research here is saying he did more to earn his W's than previously thought. Still, his meager 113 ERA+ is keeping him low on the ballot.
12. Dick Redding (ne) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's. Conservative early ballot placement for Redding here.
13. George Sisler (ne-14) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) is was a top-tier hitter, trailing only Ruth, Cobb, Hornsby, Speaker, Jackson with a big gap down to the next group of Heilmann, Youngs and Roush (155 RC+). After the injury, he was quite mediocre (103 RC+). Peak is high enough to make the ballot. His peak is shorter and lower than JJackson's which is what keeps him relatively low.
14. Roger Bresnahan (15-15-nr-nr-13-11-10-10-11-15-15) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
15. Tommy Leach (nr) -- Hard to rate due to mix of 3B & CF. Wouldn't make the ballot on CF alone, 3B play boosts him onto the ballot.


Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10. His 125 career OPS+ is actually SLG-heavy which is cause for a slight discount... probably explains why his career high in WS is only 23.
Carey -- I love the SB & SB%'s. Long career, too. But there just isn't enough bat for an OF candidate.
Van Haltren -- Two 10ths and an AA-7th in OPS+ is not what I look for in a HOM outfield candidate. Win Shares fielding rating of B. Looks like the Hall of the Very Good to me.
   38. Buddha Posted: October 20, 2004 at 01:43 PM (#928226)
Some very interesting differences of opinion this time...
   39. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 20, 2004 at 01:57 PM (#928248)
Some very interesting differences of opinion this time...

You should have been here during the late twenties/early thirties.
   40. TomH Posted: October 20, 2004 at 03:41 PM (#928412)
1937 Ballot
review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 13 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. I don’t believe in much extra value for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

1-Cristobal Torriente (3)
By consensus, one of the 12 or so best position players in Negro League history.
2-Harry Heilmann (4)
HITTER! Pete Browning with a longer career and higher peak. Would have been nice if the Tiggers had won at least Once during his (and Ty’s) era, tho.
3-Clark Griffith (5)
Like my wonderful wife: the more I look, the more pure gold I find underneath : )
4-Stan Coveleski (6)
127 ERA+ for 3000 IP is a fine record indeed.

“Hall of very good” starts right about here……..
5-George Van Haltren (8)
Hit. Ran. Played defense. Pitched. Long career. No timeline discount for 1890s. Solidly on my ballot.
6-Heinie Groh (7)
Good stick, good glove. Poster child for my “Borderline HoMer forever”.
7-John McGraw (9)
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP ain’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us. KJOK will keep me from being the best FOJMcG tho.
8-Lip Pike (10)
AdjEqA of .302. Fine WS and OPS+. Played infield too. Some concerns about his ethics’ affect on team performance.
9-Max Carey (11)
Compares well against other long-career decent-bat-but-super-glove guys Hooper and Leach. Bonus for great World Series, but un-bonus because most measurements WS, WARP overrate leadoff men IMHO.
10-Rube Waddell (12)
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit. We’ve already elected 8 pitchers from his prime – that nudges him down a bit.
11-Roger Bresnahan (13)
A nod to position scarcity. A great player when he was on the field. Re-reading Bill James’ “Whatever happened to the Hall of Fame” last week, it’s amazing how he trashed the Bresnahan HoF selection so often in that book, and now Roger is #16 in his NBJHA. The truth seems to be somewhere in the middle.
12-Ed Roush (new)
Easy to compare directly with Carey; and he loses by a hair in his first week on the ballot.
13-Addie Joss (15)
Bonus points for his great pennant exploits gets him on the edge. Also see Rube W comment above.
14-Larry Doyle (off)
Re-looked at Larry this week. After all of the analysis, in the end a 2Bman with such a high OWP deserves to be on the ballot.
15-Jake Beckley (off)
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM tho.
16-Hughie Jennings (14)
Great for 5 years. Enough to Barely sneak on this career voter’s ballot.

Tommy Leach (off)
Errgh, need a bigger ballot. As an infielder he’s solidly on. As an OFer he’s off. More analysis by next ballot.
Cupid Childs (off)
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay as well. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
Frank Chance (off)
He lacks the big seasons if you use WARP or WS, since those measure rely on playing time to accumulate much value. But by RCAP in a run-starved environment, and taking into account his team’s performance, his peak, prime and career are all durn fine. Small bonus because I assess that he would have played a few more games if he weren’t managing
Wally Schang (new)
Directly comparable to Bresnahan; and he loses by a hair in his first week on the ballot.
Dick Redding (new)
Need more time to digest info. Not sure where to place him, but it’s not a personal foul to leave him off in his first week.
Urban Shocker (off)
Little plusses: Decent hitter and bunter, made very few errors on the mound. Little minuses: Pitched poorly in his only W.S., and the 1923 Browns were a clearly superior team that somehow lost the pennant to N.Y.

Also near the edge: Mickey Welch, H Hooper, B Monroe, H Duffy, C Jones, J Ryan, G Sisler

as a career voter, George Sisler does not fair well.
   41. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 20, 2004 at 04:21 PM (#928490)
Does anyone know if Heilmann's nickname "Slug" was used as a perjorative? I won't include it on his plaque if it was.
   42. sunnyday2 Posted: October 20, 2004 at 04:30 PM (#928518)
Well, "Slug" is better than "Sig," but OTOH if people had called him "Sig" it would be easier to remember how to pronounce his name.
   43. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 20, 2004 at 04:56 PM (#928596)
   44. DavidFoss Posted: October 20, 2004 at 05:06 PM (#928623)
Both baseball-reference and baseballonlinelibrary list "Slug" as his nickname.

But, a quick google search for Heilmann slug shows that the name referred to his lack of speed and not his power. It was an affectionate nickname, but not exactly a flattering one.
   45. Chris Cobb Posted: October 20, 2004 at 11:26 PM (#929623)
Reviewing the ballots, just saw this on KJOK's post:

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. One of few Negro League greats not recruited to the best teams. Comp is around Rick Reuschel.

I'm not sure why you say he wasn't recruited: he pitched for the NY Lincoln Giants during their run of success early in the teens. Rube Foster lured him to Chicago for a season. He went to the AC Bacharach Giants early in the twenties when they were the top team in the east.
   46. KJOK Posted: October 21, 2004 at 03:45 AM (#930664)
Yes, it's even implied in my own post on Redding. I was being influenced by going thru boxscores in the Afro-American mid to late '20 where the Bacharach Giants weren't all that good....
   47. Al Peterson Posted: October 21, 2004 at 12:47 PM (#931044)
1937 ballot. Few new players of interest - not trumping some of our holdovers waiting for election.

1. Cristobal Torriente (3). 'There walks a ball club' - who couldn't like that quote?

2. Harry Heilmann (4). Yes the defense wasn't a strong suit but the hitting was the real deal.

3. Rube Waddell (5). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd.

4. Heinie Groh (6). Peak numbers shape up nicely. Positional leadership over others at 3B in the same era is the key here.

5. Pete Browning (7). If we're rushing to get Heilmann in the HOM then I'll beat the drum for another hitter with defensive issues. Star of the AA with few on his level.

6. Hughie Jennings (9). Peak-riffic. SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, albeit for a short stretch of time.

7. Stan Coveleski (8). Some durability, some peak, just a quality pitcher.

8. Jimmy Ryan (10). Yeah, I got nothing to add. Something about 30 years of him on the ballot does that to ya.

9. Edd Roush (-). Another CF to throw into the mix...

10. Jake Beckley (12). Still no 1B have jumped greatly ahead of him so that shows something about his worth.

11. John McGraw (13). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

12. Bobby Veach (19). Maybe penalized him too harshly in the past due to tough OF competition in his career.

13. Dick Redding (-). No Smokey Joe but also not a slouch.

14. Cupid Childs (14). He's always bounced between being on the ballot and off. I'm keeping a gap between him and Doyle as I feel he was the better of the two. From that underrepresented period of the 1890s.

15. Mike Griffin (15). Switched positions for him and Duffy. Consistent player, both seemed to use the leather. Griffin was more of a full-time CF than Hugh.

The others:
16-20: Van Haltren, Leach, Griffith, Duffy, Poles
21-25: Carey, Mullane, Bresnahan, Mendez, Doyle
26-30: Welch, Tiernan, Schang, Sisler, Taylor,
31-35: Willis, Cravath, Pike, Moore, Dunlap
36-40: Hooper, F Jones, C Jones, Mays, Chance

Contractually obligated top returnees I left out:

Pike - decent peak value, questions with longevity, league quality.
Van Haltren - He'll be back; just off the ballot.
Carey - Not as enamored with the SBs and defense as some others.

Other Newbies: Schang is just behind Bresnahan, not far from getting a vote. Chino Smith - I'll take a pass.
   48. Brad G. Posted: October 21, 2004 at 03:03 PM (#931184)
1937 Ballot:

1.Harry Heilmann- Particularly impressive from a Win Shares standpoint. WS5 = 154. Career Runs Created = 1676. OPS+ = 148. Black Ink = 21, Gray Ink = 244. Joins my PhoM as the second greatest RF so far, behind Sam Crawford.

2.Cristobal Torriente- Greatest Negro League RF; certainly not far behind Heilmann, and therefore my #3 all-time RF to this point.

3.Max Carey- the best eligible CF, in my book.

4.Stan Coveleski- Looks like the best eligible pitcher.

5.Heinie Groh- Not the longest career, but a terrific peak and very nice Career WARP numbers.

6.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Second look makes him even more impressive.

7.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 Centerfielder of all time.

8.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Too bad he’s a CF. Conservative ranking, this is.

9.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS5 = 145.

10.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

11.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

12.Pete Browning- Put up some monster offensive numbers, led by the 162 OPS+. Browning sneaked into my PhoM years ago. I’m starting to think it may not have been a fluke.

13.Jimmy Ryan- - Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

14.George J. Burns- Had a real nice career. Career WARP3= 63.3, Black Ink= 33, Gray= 165.

15.Clark Griffith- Excellent Win Share pitcher: Career WS = 266, WS3 = 96, WS5 = 143.

16-20: Veach, Bresnahan, Cravath, Jennings, Childs

Missing: Lip Pike- Ranks #25 currently

   49. OCF Posted: October 21, 2004 at 07:14 PM (#931501)
1937 ballot.
1. Cristobal Torriente (--, 6, 5, 3) Could presumably play defense with any of the CF on the ballot except perhaps Carey, and the evidence suggests that he was probably a better hitter than any of them.
2. Harry Heilmann (---, 4) How will Gary Sheffield look in the election of 2012 or 2014? If we picked all-time all-star teams by ethnic origin, the All-German-American team, with that infield, could probably take on all comers, including the English-Americans. Heilmann might crack the lineup for the Deutsch.
3. Larry Doyle (4, 5, 9, 7, 7) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
4. Stan Coveleski (--, 10, 8, 8). The best of the 3000-inning pitchers, other than maybe Vance.
5. George Van Haltren (2, 3, 7, 5, 5) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates. The CF candidates (other than Torriente) are really all so similar that I'm moving them all towards each other.
6. Heinie Groh (-, 6, 11, 9, 9) This may be too high, but was an MVP candidate more than once.
7. Jimmy Ryan (3, 4, 8, 6, 6) Nearly indistinguishable from Van Haltren. 29th year on my ballot.
8. Hugh Duffy (5, 7, 12, 10, 10) 31st year on my ballot.
9. Max Carey (---, 12, 12) The Beckley of oufielders. The dominant base stealer of his times. His offense wouldn't put him this high, but he was also a superior defender.
10. Edd Roush (new) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey, but the nod goes to Carey's defense.
11. Rube Waddell (6, 8, 13, 11, 11) The best one left from his generation, and I have him ahead of Griffith - but he's going to lose ground to a new generation of pitchers, of whom Coveleski is only the first.
12. Roger Bresnahan (7, 9, 14, 13, 13) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
13. Jake Beckley (11, 10, 15, 14, 14) No peak, long career. But still more peak than Hooper.
14. Wally Schang (new) Offensive value comparable to, oh maybe Clyde Milan. If he had some more games played at an ordinary level - some padding - I'd be comparing him offensively to Daubert, Leach, Ken Williams. No match for Bresnahan offensively, but he's all catcher and Bresnahan isn't. It all boils down to the idea of a catcher bonus.
15. George Sisler (----, 15) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time. To those of you who are saying his peak ranks with Jackson, Flick, or Magee - I don't see it. He has two years ('20 and '22) that are as good as anyone's, but his 3rd-through-8th years don't rank with those guys.
16. Gavy Cravath (8, 11, 16, 15, 16) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.
17. Jose Mendez (9, 12, 17, 16, 17) He'll be back on my ballot in time.
18. Frank Chance (12, 13, 18, 17, 18) I could have him higher; huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
19. Tommy Leach (-, 18, 24, 23, 25) Not as much offense as either Groh or Carey, but not that far behind them, either. Those are the ones to compare him to.
20. Ben Taylor (--, 19, 18, 19)
21. Vic Willis (14, 16, 22, 21, 22) I could reasonably have him right up there with Waddell.
22. Mickey Welch (10, 14, 20, 19, 20) 300 wins, but ERA and RA don't really support the record.
23. Dick Redding (new) I need to look more at him and Mendez.
24. George J. Burns (13, 15, 21, 20, 21) A better leadoff hitter than Carey, but didn't last as long.
25. Clark Griffith (20, 24, ---) I'm letting too much space appear between pitchers, but I don't see me ever moving him up to an "elect me" spot. Ed Cicotte could be in here somewhere as well, if I wasn't so suspicious of anything having to do with his 1920 season.
Slipping below 25: Dave Bancroft, Jack Fournier.
Nothing to say about Pike or Jennnings that I haven't said many times.
   50. mbd1mbd1 Posted: October 21, 2004 at 07:58 PM (#931564)
1937 ballot: Groh makes it on for the first time after I did a little adjusting with positional considerations. Roush is the only newcomer to find a spot. Schang is in the mid-twenties.

1. Cristobal Torriente (3) - Last of the great class of '34.
2. Harry Heilmann (4) - These two are solidly above the rest of the ballot.
3. Max Carey (5) - Max slides on up. I hope he makes it eventually.
4. Hugh Duffy (7) - From Duffy to Groh, I'm not as confident about their HoM-worthiness.
5. George Sisler (11) - Sisler jumps up a few spots this week.
6. George Van Haltren (6) - GVH continues to tread water.
7. George J. Burns (8) - I think I'm the best FOGJB. The only thing that really stands out about him is his Ink, which is comparable to Heilmann, Sisler, and Duffy.
8. Jimmy Ryan (9) - Couldn't make it four Georges in a row, sorry.
9. Jake Beckley (12) - Jake is in no man's land...I'd like to
10. Heinie Groh (NA) - Heinie finally gets his due from me.
11. Larry Doyle (15) - Positional consideration got him a few spots. This is filler territory, though.
12. Edd Roush (NA) - Nice solid career. Never the most spectacular, but very good for several years.
13. Bobby Veach (13) - Roush's second best comparable.
14. Tommy Leach (10) -
15. Harry Hooper (14) - Three of his comps are Carey, Leach, and Burns. Looks like the backlog is always going to be tight like this.

next five: Willis, Cravath, Konetchy, Browning, Coveleski. Pike is way down the list of OF.

Where have all the pitchers gone? Last year I had Alexander and Williams in Elect Me positions and no other pitchers on my ballot. This year, none at all. I'm never 100% confident in my methods since I change little things every year, but I think a big re-evaluation on pitchers is needed on my part. I have Dick Redding in the same 20-30ish neighborhood as Coveleski, Waddell, Mendez, and Cicotte.
   51. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 21, 2004 at 09:20 PM (#931730)
I have yet to really sit down and create a system. I am pretty confident in my rankings, which take WARP evenly with WS adding in a pinch of subjectivity, but I still need to get organized. Probably wont' happen for a fe weeks though, as I recover from the debacle that was the past four days in Yankee history.

1. Harry Heilmann (x,3,1)- Maybe the worst player I have ever had at #1, of course this is only my third ballot. It is nice to get some of the glut in, however.
2. Cristobal Torriente (4,4,2)- Right with Heilmann. I would have him at #1 if I was confident that his fielding is historically good instead of just good for his time. In other words, was he Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey Jr. with the leather?
3. Heinie Groh (5,5,3)- Looks to be just one year away from an elect me spot
4. Hughie Jennings (15,6,4)- I love peaks, so a guy with a peak comparable to that of Wagner and Cobb impresses me. May very well become the first player to make my PHOM without getting into the actually HOM.
5. Cupid Childs (10,10,5)- Childs, along with Coveleski, are two players I have really warmed to this week. They should both make my PHOM
6. Stan Coveleski - (7,8,6) - Best pitcher available right now, htough Redding may be better. After him there is a gap.
7. Max Carey (6,7,7) - Holds steady, though I like him less now than I did two elections ago.
8. Edd Roush (x,x,8) - Really close to Carey, better rate stats but his lack of in season durability bring his season stats down. I am a peak guy but for me peak doesn't get any smaller than a season.
9. Lip Pike (9,9,9) - Best NA player we have yet to elect
10. Tommy Leach (17,10,10) - Still firmly behind Groh as a 3B. If evaluated solely as an OFer, wouldn't be on the ballot.
11. Dick Redding (x,x,11) - For some reason I just dont' have a good picture of him. Was he really one of the four best NeL pitchers? If so, expect him to jump next year. However, I am not convinced that he was better than Mendez, who misses my ballot. I think for now 11 is a good spot to put him, not overrating or underrating him until I get a better grip on his career.
12. Rube Waddell (13,12,12) - Very similar to Mendez but with a vastly better ERA+.
13. Hugh Duffy (8,16,13) - Again I have flip flopped on Duffy vs. GVH. I think I have finally convinced myself that Duffy was better...barely.
14. George Van Haltren (11,11,14) - Best of the career candidtes because, unlike Beckley, Hooper, et al., he did have a peak.
15. George Sisler (x,14,15) - For seven seasons he was one of the better hitters in baseball, then he was below average. He would be higher if I gave points for below average seasons ( under 14 WS or 5 WARP in my 'system') But I don't, so he barely makes the ballot.
   52. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 21, 2004 at 09:38 PM (#931762)
Rest of my rankings (explanations later)...

16-20 - Mendez,R.Thomas,Bresnahan,Monroe,Moore
21-25 - F.Jones,Bancroft,Browning,C.Jones,Chance
26-30 - Griffith,Shocker,Taylor,Mays,Ryan
31-35 - Cicotte,Beckley,Marcelle,Evers,Doyle
36-40 - Cravath,Joss,Leever,Schang,Sheckard
41-45 - Petway,GJBurns,Poles,Schalk,Welch
46-50 - Konetchy,Daubert,C.Smith,McGraw,Hooper
waitlist (in no order) - K. Williams, C. Williams, Ehmke, DeMoss, Chacon, Cross, Willamson, Veach

I would say the top 19 guys are ones I wanted on my ballot. I am also convinced I need to take a much closer look at Williamson and Veach.
Guys I must explain...

Beckley (32) - What can I say I am a peak guy. Beckley doesn't have big seasonal numbers in either WS or WARP.

Welch (45) - That horribly irritating ERA+ thing.

Doyle (35) - I really want him to be higher, but looking at WS and WARP he is below Evers and I don't believe Evers to be ballot guy. I guess I just want there to be something I am missing. So why do some of you have him in your top five? Please convince me he should be higher.


Wally Schang (36) - I was ready to put him on my ballot ahead of Bresnahan until it was pointed out to me that SChalk was the better player for a good chunk of their careers. I still have Wally above Schalk, but if he was outshone by Schalk for most of his carer, he isnt' a ballot guy for me.

Chino Smith (48) - Kinda like the black Ross Youngs, but better. Whereas Youngs isnt' really in my consideration set, Smith gets a top 50 nod.
   53. Paul Wendt Posted: October 21, 2004 at 11:35 PM (#931893)
more irrelevant trivia from the usual source

Somebody here spelled Roush with a c, Rousch. So did Irwin M. Howe as Federal League Statistician in 1914.

Young Edd "Rousch" scored 26 runs, 21 earned runs. No kidding. Meanwhile Hal Chase scored 43 runs, only 28 earned. ;-)
   54. Sean Gilman Posted: October 22, 2004 at 03:54 AM (#932374)

1. Lip Pike (3)--Not quite as good in the NA as McVey, but better before; much better in the NA than Start, not as good before. Very underrated. I’ve never been able to understand the anti-1870s crowd. A pennant is a pennant. How one could rank, say, Sam Thompson ahead of Pike I have no idea. Played the infield, played the outfield. The greatest power/speed combination of his time. Great peak and a fairly long career for a 19th Century Outfielder. According to WARP3, the best player on his team in 1871, 1874, 1875, and 1876. .2 WARP3 behind the team leader in 1872, second on the team in 1877. One of the top 2-3 players on the pre-NA teams he played for in his early 20s. Faster than a horse. (1919)

2. Pete Browning (4)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cristobal Torriente (6)--While his career was longer, it doesn’t look as if his peak can match that of the three high peak/short career outfielders above.

5. Harry Heilmann (7)--Fits right in with this group of A- outfielders. May deserve to be ahead of them.

6. Hughie Jennings (8)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

7. Cupid Childs (9)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .

8. Heinie Groh (10)--Peak not quite as high as Jennings or Childs, but better than the long career outfielders.

9. Roger Bresnahan (11)--Great rate stats, but he just didn’t play enough to generate the value of the higher ups on the ballot. Ranks ahead of Childs only because of the bonus I give him for being a catcher.

10. Stan Coveleski (12)--I’ve been systematically underrating pitchers as a reaction to the tendency of Win Shares and WARP to overrate them in the first 50 years or so of baseball. But I think I’ve been too hard on these two, so I’ve bumped them ahead of the outfield glut.

11. Clark Griffith (13)--About as close to Covaleski as can be.

12. Dick Redding (-)--Peak not quite long enough to put him ahead of these other second-tier HOM-probable pitchers.

13. Hugh Duffy (14)--Duffy’s got small (very small) edges on Van Haltren and Ryan in pennants added and win shares peak numbers.

14. George Van Haltren (15)--Gluterrific.

15. Ed Williamson (16)--His on-again/off-again relationship with my ballot continues. . .

16. Tommy Leach (17)
17. Jimmy Ryan (18)
18. Edd Roush (-)--Welcome to the Glut.
19. Larry Doyle (19)
20. Jose Medez (-)--Benefits from a fresh look this week.
21. Rube Waddell (20)
22. Bobby Veach (21)
23. Max Carey (22)
24. George Burns (23)
25. Jake Beckley (24)
   55. KJOK Posted: October 22, 2004 at 04:46 AM (#932426)
Somebody here spelled Roush with a c, Rousch. So did Irwin M. Howe as Federal League Statistician in 1914.

Thanks Paul. Does that mean I'm in good company? Funny I always remember the TWO dd's on Edd, but I can never remember without looking if it's Roush or Rousch....
   56. KJOK Posted: October 22, 2004 at 05:00 AM (#932440)
More useless trivia:

From Aug 21, 1913 Washington Post:

"Rousch, a newcomer, played center field for the White Sox. At bat he failed to hit. He handled his fielding chances."

From Aug 22, 1913 Chicago Daily Tribune:

"Bodie led the crucial assault with a single, and was sacrificed ahead by Rousch, who dumped a pretty bunt just inside the third base line."

From Aug 31, 1913 Washington Post:

"Outfielder Rousch, now on the White Sox pay roll, is the only ball player who carries two gloves with him. When he plays left field he throws right handed, and wears his left-hand glove. When they shift him over to right field he throws left-handed, and sports the right-handed glove."

That last one was actually quite interesting...
   57. Howie Menckel Posted: October 22, 2004 at 01:37 PM (#932623)
1937 ballot, which is our 40th....

1. HARRY HEILMANN - Harry's 1921-30 decade of hitting is inner-circle type stuff, but arthritic wrists prevented the spectacular ride from lasting just a little longer. We'll need to be careful not to be too dazzled by 1920s and 1930s stats, but when they're like Harry's, we also need to recognize that some of them ARE that spectacular. Not convinced that his defense was way below mediocre.
2. CRISTOBAL TORRIENTE - I like the Clemente reference; but in both cases they were a little more fun to watch than they were accomplished - and that's not even a tiny insult. Did some quality LH pitching, too, for bonus credit. "When he joined the Chicago American Giants in 1919, Hall of Famer Oscar Charleston moved from centerfield to left field." In the 12 documented years that Torriente played in the Cuban League, he hit .352.

3. MICKEY WELCH - Moves up one spot this year. Pitching was extremely important in the 1880s in my mind, and this is the last one we need to close the books. I'm still convinced we got a little off-track in the Keefe-Welch-Clarkson discussion; OK if we rate Welch third in that bunch, but not sure how he got THIS far behind. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
4. PETE BROWNING - Flops down to 4, but deserves a LONG second look from those overlooking him. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Has been discounted too much for AA numbers, and I'm not a big AA fan at all. But I'm more convinced that his fielding was awful than I am Heilmann's.
5. HEINIE GROH - He's above my HOMer line, thanks to positional consideration. But just barely. I think he may be a HOMer, but I'm happy to see him stew a while til we make sure.
6. GEORGE SISLER - I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while also providing a significant added portion of a career.
7. CLARK GRIFFITH - A personal favorite; it's remarkable how much better he was than the teams he pitched for. I think he was a brilliant strategist long before he became a manager, and it showed in his pitching.
8. STAN COVELESKI - I buy the idea that these two are very close, after another look at Stan's career. A bit of a transitional time for pitchers, which makes them tougher to compare across eras than hitters, I think.
9. DICK REDDING - Good place to start a guy who I'm confident should be on most ballots, at least.
10. LIP PIKE - Biggest jump on this year's ballot (up 4 spaces). The Dick Allen comparisons seem apt. A little odd that he didn't get to play much with 'the big boys' at a time when they seemed to seek each other out, but the hitting numbers are damn good. My main trepidation is the murmurs about his ethics, but I voted Shoeless Joe No. 1.
11. TOMMY LEACH - Returns to my ballot after another look. The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
12. JAKE BECKLEY - I'm now firmly convinced that no one will ever explain what Keeler has that Beckley doesn't. And he's better than many here give him credit for.
13. HUGHIE JENNINGS - The yang to Beckley's yin hangs in, on the theory that a four-year megastar is better than entire careers of most of these balloteers. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS. Tough call.
14. CUPID CHILDS - The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. But I can't say I'm sure he belongs.
15. MAX CAREY - The SBs/pct puts him ahead of Hooper, but Harry didn't get much time in on my ballot. I'm not sure what to do with Max over Roush, though. WS overrates Carey, but I do dismiss those 'negative' end years, while others don't.

WALLY SCHANG - Catchers are starting to become a challenge, and Wally did more while actually behind the plate than Bresnahan did.
JOSE MENDEZ - Best pitcher not on the ballot.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I'm not sure of a lot of things, but I'm positive this guy is NOT a HOMer. He basically won a lottery among an earlier glut, and some just keep placing him in front of more and more guys (throw Roush onto the pile) who are equally or more deserving.
   58. Michael Bass Posted: October 22, 2004 at 04:12 PM (#932857)
Mainly WARP3, with some Win Shares emphasis to my analysis. OPS+ and RA+ (basically ERA+ with an eye out for high unearned run totals) are also used as a sanity check.

Finally did my OF reconsideration. The main conclusion is that none of them at the top were that different from each other, so I moved a few middle infielders ahead of them. After them, Duffy is 15th, and Van Haltren, Carey, F. Jones, Ryan, and Griffin are just off the ballot.

As for new guys not on my ballot, Schang is very close, and I anticipate he'll sneak on one day. Smith and Roush are not. Smith seems like a really lite version of Dobie Moore to me, while Roush is toward the back of the OF glut.

1. Cristobal Torriente (3) - Has some competition for the top "great, but not inner circle" slot this ballot, but keeps his spot with me. Significantly better than Pete Hill (who I liked), only Santop from those NLers who came before would be above him, and even he wouldn't be by much.

2. Harry Heilman (5) - Great hitter, with a really strong peak as well. Best reading of the evidence is that he was a somewhat better hitter than Torriente, but the gap in their defensive value is extreme, so he gets 2nd.

3. Hughie Jennings (5) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

4. Heinie Groh (6) - Great player, great peak, position where we could use some inductees.

5. Stan Coveleski (7) - Great pitcher with whom I wasn't even all that familiar. Great peak, obvious HOMer (I assume all of these top 5 except Jennings are going in eventually).

6. Spotswood Poles (8) - A slightly lesser Pete Hill. Very worthy of election. Dropoff in my rankings both before him and after him. After having cut through the mid 30s supergroup, I think this is Poles' highest position on my ballot.

7. José Méndez (9) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting as a pitcher moves him to one spot above him, but he doesn't get credit in my system for his offensive rebirth (I don't think he'd have had it in the big leagues).

8. Rube Waddell (10) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

9. Pete Browning (11) - I reexamined the 3 "bat" candidates from the earlier days, him, Jones, and Pike, and Browning comes out on top. Just one hell of a hitter. If we elect Beckley before him, we should be embarassed.

10. Bobby Veach (12) - Currently the #1 name of the OF glut (not counting the Negro Leaguers). Love his peak, was super-strong both offensively and defensively.

11. Dick Redding (new) - Of similar value to Mendez, but below him because of Mendez's bat, and Redding is a touch lighter on the peak.

12. Dobie Moore (--) - Makes it back on this year. Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them.

13. Cupid Childs (--) - Back on my ballot after being pushed off a while. Beneficiary of my realizing that aside from Veach, the OF glut doesn't separate itself out very much.

14. Bill Monroe (--) - Also back after a long absense, still tied to Childs at the hip. Was a hell of a hitter in the early days of the organized Negro Leagues, when he was already up in age.

15. Hugh Duffy (13) - Hugh was a strong hitter with a good offensive peak and a hell of a defender. A+ rating from Win Shares, despite playing more corner than center? Sign me up. Drops some, but keeps his position atop the OF glut.

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Carey - In the portion of the glut likely to make my ballot one day. Just not yet. I think there should be other election priorities, but he would not be a real mistake.

Pike - Re-examined him, and it just didn't work out. Think Browning is the better choice. Not saying he'll never make my ballot, but he's back in the queue at this point.

Van Haltren - Benefitted from the OF reconsideration, and is now back at #16. Should be back on my ballot relatively soon. Also don't think he should be an election priority, but like Carey, would not be a mistake.
   59. Dolf Lucky Posted: October 22, 2004 at 04:12 PM (#932859)
1 (2)Harry Heilmann--Someone wrote on some thread at some point that Heilmann and Torriente looked like a tie, and that he was going with the one that he had "real" stats for instead of "equivalent" stats. That's basically my view, as well.

2 (3)Cristobal Torriente--He's way too good to have waited this long to get in.

3 (7)Heinie Groh--At his peak, he was the cornerstone of a championship team. His career numbers are solid, placing him at least the equal of Jimmy Collins, but shy of Frank Baker.

4 (5)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

5 (6)Stan Coveleski--Head-to-head, Coveleski clearly ranks ahead of Cicotte, who I like. Much closer to Waddell, who stays ahead partly on the basis of all those shiny strikeouts…

6 (8)Donie Bush--I backed off the Bush Kool-Aid somewhat, but keep in mind that Bill James blew it on this guy. See his comments in the NBJHBA, and then actually look at the numbers, and you'll realize that James doesn't make much sense.

7 (9)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

8 (14)Max Carey--His career value may see him breaking away from the rest of the OF glut.

9 (10)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

10 (12)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

11 (11)Roger Bresnahan--The biggest boost from the new WARP scores. The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing). My apologies to the Duke of Tralee for not catching on quicker.

12 (15)Hugh Duffy--I had to separate some of the OF glut with the addition of so many good names. Duffy and Leach were pretty close, but in having to make a decision, I'll generally go with the peak guy. Hence, Duffy stays alive for at least one more year.

13 (-)Del Pratt--Numbers-wise, not all that close to Duffy, but an admitted positional adjustment gives a 2nd baseman a rare ballot appearance.

14 (-)Bobby Veach--Separating 2nd tier outfielders is like choosing your favorite Streisand movie.

15 (13)Hughie Jennings--The peak stud. Not quite long enough of a career. As great a peak as Jennings had, it's laughable how it stacks up to a guy like Walter Johnson.

Top 10 ommissions: Lip Pike--played too long ago at this point to make up the timeline/short season problems.
Jake Beckley--no peak = no vote.
George Van Halen--It's a fine line, but at this point, in my system, there are too many outfielders ahead of him to vote for GVH any time soon. That big of a glut, I'll tend to sway towards the peak guys, which will usually put GVH on the outside looking in.
   60. Patrick W Posted: October 22, 2004 at 09:49 PM (#933451)
Two more weeks, and I can hopefully get back to a normal schedule of reading all of your comments on the ballot threads, and adjusting my considerations accordingly. Apologies for the short ballot again. It’s time to elect some outfielders.

1. Cristobal Torriente (3), Chic. (--), CF (’13-’28) (1937)
2. Max Carey (4), Pitt. (N), CF / LF (’10-’29) (1937)
3. George Van Haltren (5), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926)
4. Harry Heilmann (6), Det. (A), RF / 1B (’14-’30) –
5. Jimmy Ryan (7), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926)
6. Harry Hooper (8), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931)
7. Fielder Jones (9), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930)
8. Ben Taylor (10), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) –
9. Stan Coveleski (11), Clev (A), SP (’16-’28) –
10. Jake Beckley (12), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929)
11. Rube Waddell (13), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) –
12. Heinie Groh (14), Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
13. Urban Shocker (15), St.L (A), SP (’16-’27) –
--. Joe Start, Atlantic-Bkn (NABBP)-N.Y.Mut.(NL), 1B (‘60-’86) –
14. Wally Schang (n/a), Phila. – NY (A), C (’13-’31) – Small difference between him & Bresnahan, but a) Wally is the better in my mind, and b) there are many evenly ranked players near the same overall value that create quite a distance between the two on my ballot.
15. Cupid Childs (--), Clev. (N), 2B (’90-’01) – Between him & Bancroft for 15th. (Roush may be better than both, but this ballot does not lack for more 1B/OF players, no?). I’ll make sure to give Bancroft a long look next time, since he may have fallen through the cracks last year.

Lip Pike – Too many other worthies have arrived (and will continue to) and rank ahead of him. Doesn’t look likely that he’ll ever make it to the ballot.

I’ve got Dick Redding above Mendez, below the Mays - Cicotte crowd that’s just off the ballot.

Pike was in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   61. favre Posted: October 23, 2004 at 09:40 PM (#933975)
1.Harry Heilmann
2.Lip Pike

a)averaged about 34 aWS per season during an eight-year stretch (275 aWS in 10-year documented career; -5 WS for two token appearances; 270/8=33.85). While I concede the difficulties of adjusted win shares for the NA era, that’s still quite a prime.
b) His career OPS+ of 155 is higher than anyone on the ballot except Browning.
c) was the best outfielder—not centerfielder, but OUTFIELDER-- in baseball in 1871, ’74, ‘75’ and ’76.
d) was a star for five years before the NA, one of the first players to be paid, probably the best second baseman in the game during 1869-1870.

Heilmann gets the nod over Pike due to a longer career and mild timelining.

3.Cristobal Torriente
4.Jake Beckley

Give a 5% i9’s discount to Torriente, and he created 1435 runs; Duke Snider created 1436. There’s all sorts of difficulties with that comparison, but I like the analogy: Torriente’s Snider to Cobb’s Mantle and Speaker’s Mays. I moved him down just a little after comparing him again to other CF candidates. I’m not wholly convinced that he achieved a higher peak than Edd Roush, but he was better for longer.

I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.

5.Stan Coveleski
6.Clark Griffith

I see these two as very comparable players; Coveleski pitched more innings compared to his contemporaries, so I’ve placed him above Griffith.

7.Heinie Groh
8.Tommy Leach
9.Edd Roush

Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren and Carey, and Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era. I’m more and more convinced that he belongs. Groh was an even better player than Leach in his prime, and moves ahead of Tommy.

I’m surprised that I have this Roush this high; I thought he would end up near the CF glut off the ballot. He was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26. He may make it into the top five next year.

10.George Sisler
11.Rube Waddell

Cap Anson and Roger Connor retired in 1897, so we currently have a forty-year-and-counting gap of first basemen in the HoM. Gehrig will reduce that to thirty; if we elect Beckley, the gap will be twenty years. Sisler, in his prime, looks a lot like Sam Thompson to me, although with a better batting average and less power. I’m also old school enough to be impressed by a guy who hit over .400 twice.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

12.Ned Williamson
13.Hugh Jennings
14.Pete Browning
15. Cupid Childs
16.Wally Schang

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better. If you give Browning a healthy AA discount (obviously a matter of contention), then he was also a comparable player to Sam Thompson: relatively short career, not much defense, but a very good hitter.

Schang is an interesting “in-between candidate”. He stacks up well against his competitors from 1895-1925: McGuire, Schalk, Petway, and, yes, Bresnahan (Bresnahan has a higher peak, but Schang has 500 more games at catcher and a thousand more PA). However, he does not look good when compared to catchers who played after ’25: Hartnett, Cochrane, Dickey, Mackey. For now, that lands him just off the ballot.

17.Larry Doyle
18. Mickey Welch
19.Spotswood Poles
20.Max Carey
21.George Van Haltren

Carey was a fine player, but he was a contemporary of Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Torriente, and Roush, and I’m not sure the sixth-best CF of his era is a good pick. Van Haltren's hitting isn't very impressive given the high offense era, and I think his WS totals are distorted by his pitching stint.
   62. Jeff M Posted: October 23, 2004 at 10:09 PM (#933994)
1937 Ballot

1. Heilmann, Harry – A fairly dominant hitter, but his defense keeps him from the elite. Nevertheless, he is a clear HoMer in my opinion. If not for this project, it would never have occurred to me he played 17 games at 2b.

2. Torriente, Cristobel -- I’ve got him around 380 WS (using Puckett as a defensive comp). Fairly even with Heilmann, but I always break the ties with the player for whom we have more data.

3. Coveleski, Stan – Negatively affected by not pitching as long as some of the other pitchers under consideration, so his career numbers are not as impressive. However, every other player who scored as high in my system has been elected.

4. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

5. Groh, Heinie – Excellent fielder with a high extended peak. Would fare better on my ballot if he played a bit longer and had some more grey or black ink. But still damned good.

6. Monroe, Bill -- Alleged comp is Jimmy Collins. He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

7. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others).

8. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM. Groh is more deserving.

9. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor in the outfield.

10. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. He hit about as well as McVey, with power, but with a smaller WS peak and fewer WS per 162 games. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

11. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

12. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

13. Mays, Carl – Better peak than career, and WS looks better than WARP1. A couple of MVP caliber seasons, and several other All-Star caliber seasons. Probably won’t make my PHoM, but is right on the edge.

14. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

15. Waddell, Rube -- Comparable to Griffith, but win totals are far less impressive. Can't see putting him ahead of Griffith, unless you overvalue strikeouts. He floats on and off my ballot.

Required Disclosures:

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in black ink and Keltner tests. He’s #19 in my system, behind Tommy Leach and ahead of Tony Mullane. Only 34% of the group thinks he is top 10.

Carey, Max – Excellent defender and a good, but not great hitter. Defense only counts so much in the outfield. It doesn’t make up for the difference between his hitting and the centerfielders we tend to elect. He’s #17 in my system, behind Bobby Veach (barely) and ahead of Tommy Leach. Only 26% of the group thinks he is top 10.

Pike, Lip – He’s #34 in my system, behind Urban Shocker and ahead of Hughie Jennings. 40% of the group thinks he is top 10.

Van Haltren, George – I was really hoping he was out of the top 10 for good, but alas. He’s #32 in my system, behind Silver King and ahead of Urban Shocker.
   63. Rob_Wood Posted: October 23, 2004 at 11:45 PM (#934058)
My 1937 ballot:

1. Cristobal Torriente -- great player
2. Harry Heilmann -- great hitter
3. Max Carey -- luv his defense, steals, and long career
4. Edd Roush -- good all-around player
5. George Sisler -- half a career as a superstar is enuf for me
6. Jake Beckley -- very good long career
7. Larry Doyle -- very good hitting second sacker
8. Rube Waddell -- luv those strikeouts
9. Addie Joss -- luv the whip and ERA
10. Lip Pike -- possibly should be higher up
11. Stan Coveleski -- very good pitcher
12. Urban Shocker -- very good pitcher, career ended too soon
13. Heinie Groh -- good third baseman, ballot filler
14. Cupid Childs -- very good early star 2b
15. Harry Hooper -- reappears at the bottom of ballot

Wally Schang may one day make my ballot; Dick Redding has a chance to make my ballot too but I need to learn more about him
   64. Brent Posted: October 24, 2004 at 04:44 AM (#934891)
Moving from watching a crazy 21st century World Series game to evaluating 19th and 20th century HOM candidates...

Last year two great pitchers, the top two players on my ballot, were inducted. Among this year’s new arrivals, a pitcher makes my ballot, while an outfielder just misses.

1. Cristóbal Torriente: Outstanding hitter and defensive center fielder. His turn has finally arrived.

2. Hugh Duffy: Why do I have Duffy rated above Heilmann? Compare WS (adjusted to 154-game seasons) for their 8 best seasons; we see that Duffy has a clear advantage:

39, 33, 31, 29, 29, 29, 27, 25
35, 32, 30, 30, 28, 27, 25, 24

Other considerations also tend to support Duffy:
- An A+ defensive outfielder.
- Duffy contributed to winning 5 pennants.
- Duffy was a star in postseason play, 23 for 47 (.489) with 16 RBIs in 11 games.
- The one-league 1890s are under-represented in the HOM.

3. José Méndez: One post compared him to Smokey Joe Wood. The difference – Wood had two dominating seasons before blowing out his arm, while Méndez had five. That puts Méndez in a whole other category.

4. Hughie Jennings: MVP of the greatest team in baseball during the mid-1890s.

5. Spottswood Poles: Batting average, speed, fielding, and a good peak; I see him near the top of the outfield glut.

6. Mickey Welch: Three great seasons and six more good ones are enough to move him near the top of the pitchers.

7. Tommy Leach: A great fielder at two important positions, and he could hit too. Similar to Carey, but spent half his career at 3B, a more valuable position. Undervalued by the electorate.

8. Harry Heilmann: I won’t be disappointed if he’s elected this year, but, personally, I’d prefer that some of the multi-dimensional players like Torriente, Duffy, Poles, and Leach precede him. If there is one group of players that HOM voters have so far treated very generously, it’s slugging corner outfielders with limited defensive ability.

9. Stan Coveleski: One of the best pitchers during 1917-20, and a good pitcher for several years after that; a good HOM candidate.

10. Roger Bresnahan: With Schang’s arrival on the ballot I decided to reevaluate the catchers. Wally didn’t do so well, but Bresnahan was far enough above the competition that I decided to bump him up a few notches - since 1933 he has been residing just off my ballot. Bresnahan and Santop were the best catchers of their generation.

11. Heine Groh: A fine player with some great seasons and a very good defensive 3B. His peak seasons were better than Leach’s, but his career didn’t last as long and he didn’t have quite as much glove skill.

12. Max Carey: A great glove man who ran well and contributed with the bat. Second-best fielder among HOM-eligible outfielders, after Tris Speaker.

13. Dick Redding: I see his career path as quite similar to Coveleski’s, with three or four great years in the mid-teens followed by several years as a good pitcher.

14. Vic Willis: Had several excellent seasons. Best pitcher in the NL for 1899 and 1901.

15. Fielder Jones: I guess you can probably see the pattern - I like multi-dimensional players who contributed with both glove and bat.

Other new players: I ranked Roush at # 18, just missing my ballot. I see him as a little behind Carey, roughly equal to Van Haltren. Schang didn’t do so well – I see him slightly behind Schalk, both of them ranking somewhere between 40 and 50. Smith also is outside my top 40.

Not on my ballot:

Jake Beckley: I evaluate players on the basis of seasons that were good enough to have helped a pennant contender win. Beckley doesn’t do well on that score; he’s now dropped out of my top 40.

Lip Pike: Good skills, but there appear to have been important gaps as well. I have him at # 28, behind Charley Jones and above Tiernan.

George Van Haltren: Outstanding leadoff hitter, but didn’t reach the peak or have the fielding skills of Duffy. I have GVH at # 17, so he could make it back onto my ballot.
   65. KJOK Posted: October 24, 2004 at 06:46 AM (#934953)
"Cap Anson and Roger Connor retired in 1897, so we currently have a forty-year-and-counting gap of first basemen in the HoM. Gehrig will reduce that to thirty; if we elect Beckley, the gap will be twenty years. Sisler, in his prime, looks a lot like Sam Thompson to me, although with a better batting average and less power. I’m also old school enough to be impressed by a guy who hit over .400 twice."

Another reason to be voting for Frank Chance, best first baseman in AT LEAST a 20 year period, if not 40 years..
   66. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 24, 2004 at 01:59 PM (#935004)
I count 36 ballots at this time.
   67. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 24, 2004 at 04:26 PM (#935072)
1937 ballot:

1. Mickey Welch: Kelly in SD made the case for him better than I ever could – see post 96 in the 1933 ballot thread. (PHOM 1929)

2. Cristobal Torriente: Terrific hitter. Also a top defender. The next 2 outfielders weren’t so good at the latter. (PHOM this year)

3. Harry Heilmann: Poor defense, but what a bat. (PHOM this year)

4. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

5. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after. Good black & gray ink. I’d think peak voters would really like him. Looks like some do, some don’t.

6. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. I like the gray ink & counting stats. (PHOM 1926)

7. Stan Coveleski: I find him roughly comparable to Griffith, but with more good seasons, so he’s ahead.

8. Heinie Groh: More career at 3b and a better WS rate than Leach. The HOM needs thirdbasemen.

9. Roger Bresnahan: The HOM needs catchers, too. (PHOM 1932)

10. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

11. Tommy Leach: A+ defense at two important positions, solid offense for the era.

12. Larry Doyle: Good offensive credentials. Defense? Well, McGraw was apparently happy with him at 2b.

13. Dick Redding: Similar in different ways to some on- and off-ballot pitchers: Coveleski, Griffith, Cooper. This is my best guess, it’s hard to sort these guys out.

14. Max Carey: Tremendous base-stealer, A+ defense, long career.

15. Wally Schang: See Bresnahan. Considerably more career at C than the Duke, behind him offensively.

Formerly on the ballot, now waiting in the wings: Carl Mays, Ben Taylor, Hugh Duffy, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Cupid Childs, Rube Waddell, Spots Poles, and Lip Pike.

Required explanations:

Pike: Was on my ballot in some of the recent lean years, I don’t see him making it back on anytime soon.
Van Haltren: Long career, not a standout player. 0 STATS all-star teams. I have him behind all the OFs above, plus Roush, Ryan, and maybe C. Jones.

New people:

Edd Roush: A bit behind Carey, largely because of the durability issues brought up on the ballot thread.
Chino Smith: Great hitter. His career numbers look like one really good Hornsby season. The career is unfortunately too short. I noticed that Holway gave him 3 MVPs but put him on only 2 all-star teams. Love the book, but there’s many inconsistencies in it.
   68. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 24, 2004 at 06:03 PM (#935120)
The ever-changing WARP numbers have led me to start giving Win Shares equal weight.

1937 ballot

1) Lip Pike—Still the top position player on my ballot.
2) Cristobal Torriente—Obviously a great player. My reevaluation of Heilmann leads me to move him up as well. All-around game—hitting, fielding, even a little pitching—puts him ahead of Slug.
3) Harry Heilmann—Upon further review, he played at the same level, or very close to it, as Browning, but for 50% more Translated PAs, 100% more actual GP.
4) Cannonball Dick Redding—2nd best NeL pitcher of the deadball era. So maybe it’s not as clearly agreed upon that he’s the 3rd or 4th best NeL pitcher ever like I thought. I see his value as being a little bit higher than Coveleski’s.
5) Stan Coveleski—Still the best eligible Caucasian pitcher. Current stats that he ranks among highest in among eligible pitchers: 274 PRAA (all-time) & 77.4 WARP3 are tops. 3.71 DERA is basically tied with Joss and Waddell. 142 WS in top five seasons is second to Waddell (145) among pitchers who played mostly in the 20th Century.
400 IP edge in Translated IP gives him a distinct edge over Waddell.
6) Pete Browning—.309 EQA (all time), 30.81 WS/162G.
7) Hughie Jennings—That peak is hard to resist—54.2/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons.
8) Ben Taylor—As I see it, one of the top 3 NeL 1st basemen of all time. Taylor should be on at least half the ballots Beckley is on.
9) Rube Waddell—Coveleski may have an edge, but Waddell is next in line.
10) Jose Mendez—Excellent NeL pitcher, may be closer to Redding than I have him now.
11) Addie Joss—Best of eligibles in Top 3/5 PRAA seasons: 150/213. 31.51 WS/season is best for 20th Century eligibles. 1700 Translated IP is lowest by far of pitchers in my top 20. Good fielder (109 Rate), horrible batter (20 OPS+). Hitting and IP keep him out of top 10.
12) Heinie Groh—Like the peak. New weighting of WS in ballot consideration helps.
13) Dobie Moore—The Black Hughie Jennings really deserves some serious consideration.
14) Charley Jones—OPS+ of 149. 29.17 WS/162g is second only to Browning among eligibles. Makes it back on the ballot by moving ahead of the catchers.
15) Cupid Childs—Finally decided to flip-flop Childs with Dunlap. I’ve seen them as very close all along. Dunlap wins out in WS/162g and OPS+, but Childs’ edge in longevity and relative league strength has won me over…not necessarily permanently.

Falling off:
16) Fred Dunlap—I still see him as an HoM-worthy 2B. Slips barely below Childs.
23) Roger Bresnahan—After looking at Schang, I think I may have been overrating him. And underrating the rest of the catchers, Schalk in particular. I know RB was basically the best catcher of his era, but I am gradually becoming less impressed.

Top 10 Left Off:
60) Jake Beckley—He’s no Ben Taylor.
41) George Van Haltren—Decent player, but not outstanding enough to separate from the glut.
33) Max Carey—Not quite as good as Harry Hooper. Long career, but there are a lot of pretty good OFs with long careers. 20.71 WS/162G is not compared to the competition.

49) Edd Roush—Not much different than GVH and J. Ryan—I have him ranked slightly lower.
24) Wally Schang—Very close to Bresnahan. Both guys were great hitters for catchers, OBP especially. I give Roger the nod because of his peak and relative standing among peers.
22) Chino Smith—Exceptional peak makes him the Dobie Moore of outfielders. I think he could be easily overlooked. Seems to have hit .400+ on a semi-regular basis (in small samples). Premature death really throws a wrench into the evaluation. According to McNeil and the Pitts. Courier Poll, he’s somewhere between the 4th and 6th best NeL outfielder ever.
87) Edgar Wesley—Not particularly noteworthy, but still in top 100. McNeil ranks him as 3rd best in NeL at 1B.
   69. OCF Posted: October 24, 2004 at 07:41 PM (#935188)
I count 36 ballots at this time.

I agree with John; 38 now. There's not much suspense about who is going to be elected this year. With no significant new candidates in 1938, the outline of that election is visible: although there are clear favorites, it's far from a foregone conclusion.
   70. favre Posted: October 24, 2004 at 08:41 PM (#935226)
"Another reason to be voting for Frank Chance, best first baseman in AT LEAST a 20 year period, if not 40 years..."

Sure, with defense, Chance was probably a better player in his prime, 1903-1908, than Sisler in his prime, 1916-1922. However,

a) Sisler has one more year in his prime.
b) During their primes, Sisler played in more games: Sisler played in 94% of his teams' games, Chance played in 82%.
c) Chance was a semi-regular outside his prime, while Sisler was a full-time first baseman for another six seasons. Granted, in three of those seasons he was pretty worthless. But his 1925 and 1927 seasons were pretty good, and I think underrated. I would easily take Sisler's career over Chance's peak, which wasn't much higher than Sisler's anyway, IMO.
d) If managerial accomplishments were considered, I would certainly move Chance ahead of Sisler.
   71. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 24, 2004 at 09:20 PM (#935261)
1937 ballot

1. Harry Heilmann
An absolute behemoth with the bat. 10 or so hits away from hitting .400 4 times. A nudge over Torriente for a more complete record.

2. Cristobal Torriente
Nothing like the first three, but a definitive HOM'er. Such a shame he was disqualified from the majors for having "kinky hair."

3. Heinie Groh
Great six-year peak with another six years of strong play, plus timeline, gets him here.

4. Charley Jones
Short seasons understate his greatness, he was extraordinarily good in 1879 and dominated the early AA as well. Blacklist years not his fault.

5. Clark Griffith
ERA+ makes it seem that Griffith had one dominant year in 1898 and was just above average elsewhere. In fact, he was just as good in 1899 (look at K, BB, HR, and BABIP/Teammates' BABIP), was a reliable workhorse, and pitched at an All-Star level for a decade. You can't see his greatness on the surface, but look deeper into the numbers and from 1896-1901 he was a genuine superstar.

6. Stan Coveleski
I have him in a dead heat with Griffith; advantage to Clark based on 1890's NL.

7. Lip Pike
Obviously a truly dominant player in the NA and 1876 NL, played many years pre-1871 at a very high level.

8. Pete Browning
1890 showed us he was for real, so his knock-em-dead years in '82, '85 and '87 have to be taken seriously. More career value than the “career” guys GVH/Beckley by my measure, and a true dominator for three or four seasons. Hopefully I can drum up some support for him; he really deserves it.

9. Cupid Childs
Offensive juggernaut at a scarce position with often excellent leather for eight years. A bona fide superstar in '90, '92, and '96, and a strong All-Star in '93 and '97. Didn't play forever but so good that he accumulated more career value than the "career guys" IMO. We don't have anyone from his era at his position, and he played in a stronger league than his comps by my estimate.

10. Edd Roush
Some peak, some career, not tons of either.

11. Max Carey
A great player, but never an MVP candidate really.

12. Addie Joss
Joss had a remarkable ability to prevent hits on balls in play, allowing a BABIP 31 points lower than his teammates' for his career (.238/.269). He had six seasons where he was absolutely one of the best in the biz, including 1908 which was particularly standout. His rate stats were so good that even despite his innings problem, he still comes out mid-ballot on both career and peak.

13. Hughie Jennings
So good for five years that he was more valuable than guys who played for three times as long.

14. George Sisler
Gotta respect the peak, but not good enough for long enough.

15. Rube Waddell
Rube’s taken a big hit with my reevaluation. I *love* the K's, but now that I can see that deadball pitchers really could prevent hits on balls in play, he stands out less than he did before. It's worth nothing that his 1903 season was just as good as his much more highly regarded '04--almost as many innings, same BB/K/HR rates, similar propensity to giving up line drives (BABIP 5% higher than teammates' in '03, 6% in '04). '02 was really his best season though. One of the best pitchers in baseball from '02-'05, but not an otherworldly dominator and not enough career to push him further up the ballot or into my revised PHoM.

Left off

Eddie Cicotte
He really was a premier, superstar pitcher from 1917-19, and was serviceable in 1913 and 1920. A slightly above league average pitcher for the rest of his career.

Jimmy Ryan
He doesn’t fare that well in my system, but I do have to give respect to his near-ballot-topping career value and he did at least have two great years in 1888 and 89.

John McGraw
He didn't play long enough to make the HoM, and rarely played full seasons even when he did. But man, was he good--an on-base machine the likes of which the game has rarely seen since.

Vic Willis
Just kept churning out those innings at an above-average level. The Beckley of pitchers, but a more valuable career than Beckley and at least a genuine All-Star once or twice.

Dave Bancroft
A historically great defensive SS. Could be a mid-ballot pick in a weak year.

Wally Schang
Two 20-WS seasons ain't gonna get it done for me.
   72. Andrew M Posted: October 24, 2004 at 09:45 PM (#935294)
My second ballot. Still trying to work through some of those ranking issues I'm sure most of you resolved many ballots ago...

1. Cristobal Torriente. Goes above Heilmann because his peak/prime years seem a bit longer and I feel confident he was a better base runner and fielder. Also seems to have impressed those who saw him play more than Heilmann.

2. Harry Heilmann. Best OF in the majors 1923-27 not named Ruth. 148 OPS+ towers over everyone else on the ballot with a career of comparable length.

3. Heinie Groh. I'm somewhat uneasy putting him this high because of the relative brevity of his career. Best 3B in MLB 1917-20. MVP candidate 1917-19. Outstanding fielder. Not given credit for inventing a new type of bat.

4. Hugh Duffy. I sense that I like the remaining 1890's players more than most of the electorate. I have Duffy first among his contemporaries because of his peak numbers, black and gray ink, and defense. Rapid decline at age 33, but that's not unusual on this ballot.

5. George Van Haltren. Long career with some peak. Very consistent--13 win shares seasons above 20. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching.

6. Lip Pike. Dominant slugger for the 2000 ABs we can document. 155 OPS+, 7 times top 10 in slugging pct. Played almost every position in the field. I wish there was more hard evidence to go on, but I feel comfortable placing him the top 15.

7. Stan Coveleski. Best of a very similar-looking group of pitchers. Not quite Waddell's peak, but pitched in a more difficult era. 127 ERA+

8. Larry Doyle. I see a lot to like here. A second baseman consistently in top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. Captained world series teams. Won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. Fielding something of a concern.

9. Rube Waddell. Not only lots of strikeouts, but Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years.

10. Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie. Similar EQA and OPS+ to Groh.

11. Edd Roush. Not sure yet where to slot him relative to all the other OFs. For now I’ll put him between Van Haltren and Carey. 3 and 5 year peak numbers are impressive, though slightly less so than Duffy, IMHO.

12. Clark Griffith. Slightly ahead of Cicotte and Mays.

13. Max Carey. Had him at 5th on my first ballot, but the more I looked at him the less impressed I was. Very good at stealing bases and playing CF. Has an impressive late career peak between ages 31-35 and played almost 2500 games.

14. Roger Bresnahan. Looked at him again while looking at Wally Schang and decided I had him too low. 295 EQA, 126 OPS+ compare favorably to the OFs on my ballot. Both WARP and WS suggest he was a very productive hitter per AB. Would rate higher had he caught more than 974 games.

15. George J. Burns. Kept coming up as I was looking at Edd Roush and Carey. Top Win Shares, NL position players 1913-1919: Burns 191, Groh 176, Cravath 171, Fletcher 156, Wheat 151. Also noticed that Bill James got his photo wrong in the NBJHBA.

Next 5:
16. Jimmy Ryan
17. Carl Mays or Urban Shocker or Dick Redding
18. Tommy Leach
19. Ben Taylor
20. Fielder Jones

Required Disclosures:
Jake Beckley. Not enough peak.
   73. Adam Schafer Posted: October 24, 2004 at 10:15 PM (#935322)
Everytime I try to login or post, the site crashes, so now I have almost no time to get this post in, so comments on new players are either non existant or quite short.

1. Harry Heilmann (3) - I love the peak, career and consistency, I wish I could've had him at #1.

2. Mickey Welch (4) - These recent ballots sure hurt his #1 and #2 ranking I've been keeping him at. I'm beginning to realize that he's probably never going to get elected. He'll stay near the top of my ballot every year even if I'm the last one voting for him.

3. George Sisler (5) - This is going to be an unpopular vote I know, but his peak was great, and there's enough career for me put him this high. What George has really done, is convinced me to move Beckley up on my ballot again.

4. Clark Griffith (6) - Same old story for Clark

5. Stan Coveleski (7) - I initially had him ranked 17th on my ballot, but since then I've read everyone's comments on him and have decided that I had him way too low.

6. Jake Beckley (8) - Not far off from Sisler.

7. Rube Waddell (9) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

8. Cristobal Torriente (10) - EXCELLANT player, just not in Pop or Smokey Joe territory

9. Wally Schang (n/a) -

-----------------------My PHOM line-----------------------------------------------------------

10. Lip Pike (11) - I bump him ahead of a couple others this year as I am convinced he was a bigger stud than I was willing to let myself believe. I can see him finally getting in one of these days.

11. George Van Haltren (12) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

12. Jose Mendez (13) -

13. Max Carey (14) - Not much peak, but enough career to scratch in at a low spot

14. Roger Bresnahan (15) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.

15. Carl Mays (16) - People may laugh that he made my ballot, but Carl could pitch. With Sisler and Welch so high, I already have two unpopular votes, so what's one more for them to laugh at?

16. Hughie Jennings (17) - Nothing new to add

17. Heinie Groh (18) - One of the best thirdbasemen to date. Not enough career value for me to seriously consider him.

18. Edd Roush (n/a) -

19. Bobby Veach (19) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher ranking on my ballot, but enough peak to grab a lower spot.

20. Jimmy Ryan (20) - A watered down Van Haltren

21. Eddie Cicotte (21) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM material, but underrated nonetheless.

22. Urban Shocker (22) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular, but a respectable career.

23. Hugh Duffy (23) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him

24 Harry Hooper (24) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.

25. Dick Redding (n/a) - I much more impressed with Mendez
   74. Kelly in SD Posted: October 25, 2004 at 02:58 AM (#935980)
I just tried to post this, but it didn't show up. I tried refresh and even relogged on to the internet. Pardon if this is a giant double post.

Hi, I don't know if this is too late to count (not that it will change the election results) or that I don't have concrete numbers for some of my selections.
Did the election deadline change from Monday to Sunday at some point in the last month while I was stuck on Elba?
I am sooo happy. The movers are supposed to deliver our stuff Monday. My baseball books withdrawl is almost over.

1. Mickey Welch: I think he is underrated. See my posts in the Pitcher thread toward the end and post 96 in the 1933 ballot thread.

2. Cristobal Torriente: Not much to add.

3. Harry Heilmann: Great power, average. Fielding keeps him behind Torriente.

4. Pete Browning: Terrific hitter. Believe him to be the best AA player not yet elected.

5. Tommy Leach: A+ defense at both 3rd and CF. A key reason why Pittsburg was able to plug in so many pitchers and get consistent results throughout the deadball era.

6. Heinie Groh: Great peak seasons. Excellent defense at 3rd.

7. Cupid Childs: See John Murphy's ballot for my reasoning.

8. Hugh Duffy: Great defense, great peak. A key member of the great Boston teams of the 1890s - the TRUE great team of the 1890s.

9. Dick Redding: The comments in his thread have convinced me (as of this moment) that he is the best of other available pitchers.

10. Bobby Veach: 4 times a WS allstar competing against Cobb, Speaker, Jackson, and Ruth. Excellent Black and Grey Ink among eligible players.

11. George Burns (NYG one): Like his peak better than Roush and Carey...

12. George Sisler: Without access to my books, he fits here. To be reevaluated for the next election.

13. Jose Mendez: Not sure he is "worse" than Redding. Still don't have a great feel for NeL pitchers.

14. Frank Chance: Great peak, key to getting the great Cubs to perform on the field. 6 times NL all star by WS and 4 times best in the majors.

15. Stan Coveleski: Just ahead of Mays this time.

Why not on the ballot:

Pike: he was an excellent player. one of many in the outfield who had great years but didn't have the career length that is key for me.

Van Haltren: many good years, but not enough time being the best.

Carey: like the defense and the sb, but there isn't enough power for me - though Forbes Field didn't help.

Roush: injuries.

Beckley: lack of peak seasons keep him off this ballot.
   75. Guapo Posted: October 25, 2004 at 04:14 AM (#936197)
1. Cristobal Torriente- Great all-around ballplayer. If I have to choose one guy on this ballot for my team, he’s the #1 pick.
2. Max Carey- I left him off my ballot his first year of eligibility in an abundance of caution. Two years later, I see his excellence as indisputable. Great peak and a defensive superstar.
3. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.
4. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM. 5. Heinie Groh- Reminds me a lot of Larry Doyle. Considering the dearth of third base candidates, he looks very strong for eventual election. Underrated because of his exceptional patience at bat.
6. Harry Heilmann- - Yeah, I’m surprised he ranks this low too. There’s not much separating him from the #2 spot on the ballot, but I think his offensive stats are a little inflated by the league and context. Still, he was an extraordinary hitter.
7. George J. Burns- - OBP master- great leadoff hitter.
8. Stan Coveleski- A 2.89 ERA is pretty good for a guy who pitched in the AL in the 1920's. Not completely sold on him yet, but he makes the ballot.
9. Carl Mays- Him and Coveleski are almost identical.
10. Jack Fournier- - The big winner of the reevaluation lottery. Similar player to Cravath, had a great 5 year run. If I have to pick a first baseman to fill our first base dearth, this is the guy.
11. Gavvy Cravath- Had a great 5 year run at the top of the league.
12. Ed Konetchy - Another great first baseman, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
13. Ross Youngs- This is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.” Nine full-time seasons, career avg. of .322 and OBP of .399. Led NY to 4 straight pennants from 1921-1924.
14. Dick Redding- I have a tough time differentiating him from Mendez. He starts off here for now.
15. Roger Bresnahan- A token vote for a great catcher who seems to have almost no shot of getting elected.
   76. Guapo Posted: October 25, 2004 at 04:22 AM (#936206)
Not making it:

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career and was never one of the truly great players in the league. Will never make my ballot.

Lip Pike- has made it on my ballot before- may well make it again. Ranks #20 right now.

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he surged ahead of the other contenders for reasons I don’t understand. Will never make my ballot.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

Hughie Jennings- A legitimate candidate- ranks #22 right now. His career was about a year too short for me.

Clark Griffith- I have voted for him before, took another look at him, was not impressed, and dumped him. I’m starting to think that maybe there just isn’t another 1890's pitcher who deserves election....

George Sisler- Just missed the ballot at #17. A superstar whose career fell off a cliff.

Mickey Welch- I’m taking a break from voting for 1880's pitchers. I’m keeping him on the radar and maybe he’ll get a vote in the future, but I think that era’s quite well represented at this point.
   77. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 25, 2004 at 04:26 AM (#936207)
Two very worthy holdovers take the two top spots this year.

1. Cristobal Torriente - An absolute gem of a ballplayer. I will feel very honored to have been a part of giving this gentleman his due when he is inducted into the HOM.

2. Harry Heilmann - A fantastic hitter. Edged out by what I feel is the more complete player in Torriente. His defense was actually barely average on the win shares corner outfielder fielding scale.

3. Lip Pike - One of the best players in early baseball. The pre-NA numbers confirm what I have believed about his early career.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

6. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

7. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

8. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

9. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

10. Stan Coveleski - So far what I have seen has me inclined in his favor. How he compares to his contemporaries will decide whether he's in or out.

11. Hughie Jennings - A historical monster for five years.

12. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. However, I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

13. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Max Carey - Defense and stolen bases. How much will that carry him in the future?

15. Jose Mendez - Makes my ballot for the first time. Had been underrating his accomplishments. May still move up in the next couple of years.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Heinie Groh - Just edged out by Max Carey. Most likely back in the next three years.

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at position.
   78. Brian H Posted: October 25, 2004 at 04:32 AM (#936211)
1937 -- Ballot for Brian H.

1 . Cristobal Torrienti – A pity he had to wait ...... My understanding is that in his prime he was every bit as good as Oscar Charleston but that his prime (and his career) were much shorter. If he had Charleston’s (or Cobb’s) legendary intensity he could very well lead this list. For that matter if he had the certain paycheck and organized major leagues to play in he might have also equaled the famously undisciplined Babe Ruth.

2.Hugh Jennings – (3 AS + 2 MVP) His peak is among the highest ever at SS. He was not merely the top SS of an era abundant with outstanding shortstops. – the one-league 1890’s.. James (a peak fan) ranks Jennings 18th , just above Dahlen among all SSs... Jennings was an integral part of the “Old Orioles” dynasty of the ‘90s.

3. Frank Chance (7 AS, 1 MVP) Chance was the was the premier 1B in baseball for several years (weak years for the position). Conversely, I have Beckley as the top 1B for only a few years. Very valuable on the bases.....Chance could rank higher if: (A) He was accorded credit for managing the Cubs; or (B) He was more durable player and put up career numbers like his longtime nemesis Fred Clarke.

4. Roger Bresnahan (4 STATS AS)– We have elected no Major League Catchers who played after Buck Ewing and don’t figure to until Hartnett/Cochrane (or perhaps Schang ?). This is nothing new to the voters. I stumbled across a ranking in the STATS All-Time Source Book. placing Bresnahan as the #1 all-time Catcher in Relative (to league) Runs Created at 150 (topping Cochrane by some fraction). While IROD or Piazza may very well have passed him up since this book was issued after the 1997 season, it did cause me to revisit Bresnahan and move him from just under the ballot (around 18-20 perhaps).

5.Cupid Childs (5 AS) – I had him above McPhee based on his peak and strength of competition (as does James). I also think he hit a bit better than Bid (although his fielding was clearly inferior). Terrific player from the underappreciated (by us at least) 1890's.

6Hugh Duffy –(2 AS, 1 MVP) Duffy was integral part of Boston’s “team of the 90’s”. He had an exceptional peak and enough of a career that I can’t call it a fluke. Renowned as a heads-up player and a top-notch fielder. The fielding edge keeps him ahead of “Slug” – at least for now.

7.Harry Heillmann (7 AS) - Top flight hitter during a hitter’s era. Not much of a fielder.

8.George Sisler (1 MVP, 6 AS) – Overrated yes but not THAT overrated. Strong peak before sinus problems and a few years of accumulating numbers. Renowned as a great fielder – the stats disagree. His slugging is weaker than Heillmann and his pennant impact pales next to Chance’s.

9..Carl Mays (6 STATS AS) – Unfortunately one pitch forever tarnishes his legacy. My sense is that even with the election of Smokey Joe Williams we will still be under representing Pitchers. Certainly that is true if one views the HOF as a decent baseline. Mays probably threw the most effective rising fastball ever (because he threw from down under his heater actually could have risen). One of these heaters got away (at least that’s my take) and accounts for Major League Baseball’s sole fatality. This notorious “one that got away” also may have played an often unacknowledged role in the end of the “dead ball” era.. 10.Heinie Groh (4 AS) – Better than I thought he would be.... The best 3B on the Board right now. His career gives him the edge over Mugsy.

11..Mickey Welch – . His 300+ Wins are legit. I wonder why James leaves him off his top 100 but lists Mullane (whose career numbers need to be depreciated somewhat since he played in the AA) instead.

12.Stanley Covalevski – One of the dominant Pitchers of his era he passes Griffith (getting by Welch requires further analysis.) I’m comfortable listing him above Waddell and Joss when I factor in their gaudy dead ball numbers.

13. Clarke Griffith – Among the top Pitchers for the (in my opinion) underappreciated 1890's. For his day I do not see him as quite as strong as either Covaleski or Mays. The comparison between him and Smilin’ Mickey is a bit tougher for me, but I’m still leaning towards the 300 game winner based on some of the arguments advanced over the past few “years”.

14.Ed Rousch – Strong centerfielder – I like him more than Carey less than Duffy (since I favor peak).

15.Walter Schang – Not as good as Bresnahan in my book but well worth considering. I need to review him further.

Max Carey – even with more “timelining” credit than I am generally comfortable with James ranks him four notches below Duffy in the CF category. I doubt anyone could have ever argued that he was the best of his time even at his position.

Lip Pike – The ultimate explanation for his (lack of) placement is that I hold his era in relatively low esteem and I don’t really believe he was dominant enough to overcome that.

Van Haltren (VH) - Strong career but not up to what I look for in a peak for his position.

Jimmy Ryan – I like his peak a bit more than VH’s. His train accident may be what keeps him out of the HOM.... as I recall he had quite a career going until that time.

Jake Beckley – Same as VH above only much more so. As a 1B he rates well-below Chance and just below Ed Konetchy (Sp ?).

Dobbie Moore – While I do feel it is important to have positional balance in the HOM – I do not believe that is it imperative we have positional balance in our Negro League inductees. The Negro Leagues players generally were far more likely to play many positions (except perhaps the Pitchers).
Cannonball Redding – Great nickname for a power pitcher.....I’m not (yet) convinced he was one of the Negro leagues’ best Pitchers. In my mind he is well behind (at the very least): Paige, Williams, Dihigo and Rogan and Foster.
   79. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 25, 2004 at 04:55 AM (#936213)
Well, work finally slowed down, so I was able to reexamine some stuff. However, it mostly affected people who weren't on the ballot (Doyle, Konetchy) and still aren't, so there's not much movement this "year". Heilmann and Torriente make my PHoM this year (yeah, I was shocked too).

1. Harry Heilmann (3) A truly impressive hitter, and I tend to agree that his defense couldn't have been that horrible if he played that much. I wonder if the pitchers who had to work with the Fothergill-Heilmann combo have unusual records in any way.

2. Cristobal Torriente (4) Another great player who has a decent argument as the HoF's biggest omission. Could rank ahead of Heilmann, was also overshadowed by a truly amazing talent (Ruth/Charleston)

3. Lip Pike (5) Seems to have been among the best 5 or 6 players in baseball for almost a decade, which no one below him on the ballot can say. Made my PHoM in 1919.

4. Heinie Groh (6) I only see Leach as even close to him among eligible 3Bmen. McGraw doesn't have enough career length, Williamson just isn't that great, Cross just played forever at an OK level. Further ahead of Leach on peak than behind him on career; similarly, his offensive advantage is bigger than Leach's defensive. Similar to Childs in a lot of ways, but slightly better.

5. Cupid Childs (7) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth. Made my HoM in 1932.

6. Max Carey (13) Big move up. For all the beating WS has taken about his rating, he does come out clearly ahead of non-immortals on WARP as well. His peak is not great, but it's not much worse than any of the other CFs on the ballot. He looks pretty close in value to Mike Griffin with a few average (and a few below-average) seasons tacked on. That's enough to move him ahead of Van Ryan.

7. Bill Monroe (8) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, but I'm just less certain he was really good enough to make the HoM. Well ahead of DeMoss.

8. Jimmy Ryan (9) Behind Carey now (but that could change again). He and George were very good players for a reasonably long time, but I don't think they were ever great.

9. George Van Haltren (10) Behind Ryan, because Ryan's peak is just a little better and I don't think the pitching should help Van Haltren that much. Either way, they're close enough that I don't understand why GVH is significantly ahead in the balloting.

10. Tommy Leach (11) Comparison to Groh shows I've been underrating him some. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter.

11. Dick Redding (new) If he's really the #5 Negro League pitcher, he should be higher, but a lot of other people seem skeptical, and I'm not done getting a handle on him (my fault).

12. Jose Mendez (12) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons. Part of me isn't sure he's better than every eligible white pitcher, but then I look at those guys and go "eh".

(12A Sam Thompson)

13. Stan Coveleski (14) Maybe I listen to WARP too much on pitchers, but there was an excellent post comparing him to Griffith, and he comes out a little ahead in a lot of areas.

(13A Rube Foster)

14. Spotswood Poles (15) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good. Does anyone like him as much as Bill (might make his Top 100) James?

15. Hughie Jennings (16) Back on the ballot. His peak still leaps out at you, but there's so little around it that I've lost enthusiasm for him.

16. Clark Griffith (17) I don't think he was hugely better during the 90s than the non-HoMers, but he did stay around a lot longer.
17. Ben Taylor (18) Not sure I have a handle on him yet, but he's a little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now.
18. Larry Doyle. (27) In the middle of reexamining where he stood among hitters in his era, and he's coming off pretty good so far.
19. Bobby Veach (20) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
20. Del Pratt. (21) WARP likes him a LOT more than Win Shares does.
21. George Sisler (19) His peak is good, but doesn't stick out like Jennings', and his career value isn't anything special. A little ahead of Beckley, but they're both limited candidates.
22. Harry Hooper (22) Similar to Wheat in some ways, but not as good. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.
23. Dave Bancroft (25) Not a major embarassment to the HoF (and James said as much), but not much to seperate him from the Pratt-Doyle-Long MI glut.
24. Jake Beckley. (24) There is a TON of career value. But when your best 5 years by WARP3 are below Lip Pike, that's a lack of peak.
25. Jim McCormick (26) Not that far behind the other 1880s pitchers.
26. Mike Griffin (23) I love the guy and so does WARP, but doesn't quite match up to the other OFs. Wish he hadn't retired when he did.
27. Mickey Welch (28) Still won't put him ahead of McCormick. New WARP hates him! (that's a comment, not an argument)
28. Vic Willis (31) He had a lot of very good years, and might still move up.
29, Edd Roush (new) Just not a lot there to get me excited. I'm definitely docking him for the lack of games played, and he doesn't have any big advantages over the other CFs.
30. Herman Long (30) Not that interesting a candidate, this is where the numbers put him.

35. Rube Waddell (34) I don't see what gets people so excited. Strikeouts are nice to look at, but outs are outs.
   80. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 25, 2004 at 10:35 AM (#936345)
1. Harry Heilmann (3) - The Gary Sheffield of his era. A monster hitter with a questionable glove. Easy choice at #1 for me.

2. Cristobal Torriente (4) - Chris Cobb projects him around 375 WS, with 5 seasons over 30. Amazing that it took him this long . . .

3. Jake Beckley (6) - Very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. Good for 22-25 WS a year for about 13-14 years. That has a lot of value in my opinion. I also believe that 1B defense was more important in his time, and that gets him a subjective nudge forward from where modern methods place him. I see him as more Rafael Palmeiro than Harold Baines.

4. Lip Pike (7) - He was a great hitter. 155 OPS+ do not grow on trees . . . major bump, as his mainstream statistically documented career doesn't include his accomplishments before age 26.

5. Bill Monroe (8) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he should be ranked near Pike and Jones.

6. Heine Groh (9) - Another great peak, but it wasn't as great as Jennings'. Groh has more meat on the bones of his resume, but it was still a short career, and I'm conservatively ranking Jennings higher right now. I don't see how Groh can't rank ahead of Williamson. He's actually quite comparable to a player like Ryne Sandberg - with less power, but on base a lot more.

7. Charley Jones (10) - Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow. Was better than I realized.

8. Clark Griffith (5) - (231-152 CJ). Finally takes the plunge - I think I was overrating him a bit. His two best years show as more valuable than McGinnity's (though McGinnity had 4 such years total).

9. Mickey Welch (11) - (302-215 CJ). He comes out basically a little below McGinnity, Willis, et al. Throw in some timeline, and he's below them. But Chris J. has mentioned that he was generally matched up against the other teams's best pitchers, so that gives him some bump. He compares better to the top pitchers (Clarkson 299-207 CJ, Radbourn 292-212 CJ, Galvin 361-313 CJ) of his era than I previously thought. I've been convinced that it doesn't make sense to rank them highly and not Welch - and I ranked them highly.

10. Wally Schang (n/e) - The best catcher we've seen in quite some time. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season.

11. Stan Coveleski (12) - (212-145 CJ) Outstanding pitcher, career reminds me of Mike Mussina's.

12. Max Carey (13) - I'm not sure about him - he wasn't as good a hitter as Hooper, but he was a great defensive CF and a blazing runner. Is baseball reference correct that he was 51/53 as a basestealer in 1922? Wow. He's basically the Lou Brock of the 10s and 20s, but playing good CF instead of shaky LF (Brock made about 15 errors a year).

13. Dave Bancroft (n/r) - Great defensive SS, and an average hitter (for a hitter, good hitter for a SS). I like his extra years just a tad more than Jennings' monster years. Bancroft's 1921, 25, 26 were great offensive seasons for a SS.

14. Hughie Jennings (14) - Great peak, but it was just 5 years, there's not a lot on the resume besides that. His career number turned out higher than I expected (on the strength of those 5 great seasons), and when you throw in the peak, well, here he is.

15. George Van Haltren (15) - Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6.

Jimmy Ryan, George Sisler, Cannonball Redding, and Edd Roush are very close.

I see Cupid Childs as similar to Ken Boyer or Ron Cey - a notch below a guy like Santo, so he's close, but not close enough, I just need a little more career for a player with the defensive responsibility of a modern 3B and a 119 career OPS+, even if it is somewhat OBP heavy.
   81. Ken Fischer Posted: October 25, 2004 at 12:56 PM (#936358)
1937 Ballot
(include my Top 25)

1-Cristobal Torriente
Torriente was a five tool player elected to the Cuban Baseball Hall of Fame in 1939 (first class). He played well against white major leaguers.

2-Harry Heilmann 356 WS
Heilmann deserves to go in this year. He never has gotten his due since he played in the offense crazy 20s. But topped only by Ruth & Hornsby in Win Shares during the decade.

3-Max Carey 351 WS
It’s hard to ignore Max’s win shares. In the 60s he was asked by Sport Magazine (I think it was Sport) who was the best Center Fielder of all-time. He named himself. I guess he wasn’t impressed by Mays & Mantle. Max was helped by live ball era but it’s hard to ignore the 738 lifetime steals.

4-Dick Redding
Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro League picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. The Cannonball shut out Smoky Joe Williams twice in 1920…including a 5-0 win at Ebbets Field.

5-Pete Browning 225 WS
Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me. His defense takes a lot criticism. But he had a lot of merit besides being the original Louisville Slugger and a great story.

6-Lip Pike
Great numbers even though he was in the twilight of his career during the NA days. I believe Pike will eventually make the HOM. He’ll probably have to wait until the automatics of the mid-30s clear out.

7-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van played with Ryan briefly in the 1880s and was a teammate of Ed Williamson and Christy Mathewson at different times in his career. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

8-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

9-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

10-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

11-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time.

12-Carl Mays 256 WS
Penalized for Chapman incident and pitching in a high run-producing era. Mays was hard to get along with but was a gamer. He had strong numbers for 3 teams spread out across his entire 15-year career.

13-Wally Schang 245 WS
Wally had an interesting career that spanned the dead ball era into the middle of the live ball era. Played with World Series winners with A’s, Red Sox and Yanks…including the last Red Sox WS win and the first WS win for Yanks. He was a starter for several years followed by years of part-time work. Despite being a part-time for the last 7-8 years he earned 245 career win shares as a catcher…impressive.

14-Rube Waddell 240 WS
Despite short career Waddell still makes the A’s all-time top 30 list for Win Shares. Mack signed Rube out of the coast league in 1902. The big cities of the east must’ve been quite a site for Rube.

15- Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
His numbers don’t match up well with the top catchers outside his era but well within his own time. The Deadball era appears to have been tough on backstops.

Stan & Heinie make top 25...but still not convinced they deserve to bump remaining 19th Century players the Negro leaguers from the ballot.

16- Lave Cross 278 WS
17-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
18-Cupid Childs 238 WS
19-Edd Roush 314 WS
20-Stan Coveleski 245 WS
21-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
22-George Sisler 292 WS
23-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
24-Clark Griffith 273 WS
25-Heinie Groh 272 WS
   82. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 25, 2004 at 02:10 PM (#936405)
Still missing robc, Chris J., jimd, dan b, MichaelD, Bryce/Tanketra, Max Parkinson, Brad Harris, TheGoodSamaritan, Eric Enders, RMc and Sean M.
   83. robc Posted: October 25, 2004 at 02:24 PM (#936427)
John, If I dont get to it by the end of the day, please move my prelim ballot over to here. I hope to get to it late this afternoon but work may interrupt.

   84. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 25, 2004 at 02:33 PM (#936443)
No problem, Rob.
   85. dan b Posted: October 25, 2004 at 04:03 PM (#936582)
Win shares are my metric of choice. My composite ranking = 5 x Career + (3 best years)/3 + (5 best consecutive years)/5 + (8 best years)/8 + (10 best consecutive years)/10 + WS per 162. I then make adjustments justified by individual components with a touch of subjectivity thrown in. I use the same system for hitters and for 60’ 6” era pitchers. I also look at WS w/o defense for a hitting only ranking. (Number in parenthesis shows composite rank.)

1. Torriente finally his turn.
2. Heilmann (1) Best hitter on ballot.
3.Groh (5) PHoM next year.
4.Duffy (2). PHoM in 1912. 2nd in 8 and 10 year peaks.
5.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM in 1913.
6.Jennings (14) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar.
7.Waddell (3) I like his peak and K’s. PHoM 1926.
8.Leach (8) 6th in 8-yr peak, 4th in career. PHoM 1926.
9.Roush (3) Composite rank better than any single component.
10. Carey (6) 2nd in career, 8th in 10 year peak.
11.Bresnahan (29) 19th in WS/162, but 3rd in WS/600PA. Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
12.Willis (1) – 1st in career, 2nd in 3-year peak. By WS, best NL pitcher in 1899 and 1901, 2nd best in 1902 and 1906.
13.Coveleski (4) 4th best pitcher on the ballot. Compared to the P ranked above, doesn’t stand out either peak or career.
14.Redding This feels right.
15.Burns,GJ (4) 3rd in 8 and 10 year peaks. 3rd best hitter.
16.Sisler (15) – 2nd best hitter on ballot. Future PHoM.
   86. robc Posted: October 25, 2004 at 06:01 PM (#936745)
Some minor changes since my prelim ballot, so good thing I got around to it.

1. Cristobal Torriente - Finally rises to the top. Must not be to good if it took him this long.
2. Harry Heilmann - clear cut next best. Close to Torriente, but not close enough.
3. Max Carey - closer to the 3B below than to Heilmann.
4. Lave Cross - a grouping of hot corner guys. Defense at the hot corner matters, as last night showed.
5. Heinie Groh - very close to Cross, its a peak vs career thing. Cross better career, Groh better peak.
6. Bobby Veach - Im surprised with his lack of support, especially from the peak guys.
7. Harry Hooper - good career value.
8. Fielder Jones - 3rd guy in a row not in the consensus top 15.
9. Stan Coveleski - career, peak, had it all. Just not super top notch.
10. Ben Taylor - I have a feeling he will be hanging around my ballot for a long time. But unlike some of the guys above, may eventual get in.
11. Jake Beckley - Nothing I can say that I havent been saying for a long time now.
12. Cupid Childs - I like infielders more than we do as a whole.
13. Wally Schang - some quality guys filling out this ballot.
14. Dave Bancroft - see above.
15. Rube Waddell - yet again, see above. There are a 1/2 dozen other guys at the same level. These guys arent just filler, there are just better players eligible now.

Pike isnt in my top 30, barely in my consideration set. Only there because I need to mention him each vote.
Van Haltren is at 16. Has definately been downgraded considering how high I have had him in the past.
   87. OCF Posted: October 25, 2004 at 09:35 PM (#936998)
Kelly from SD: Your vote counts. No problem there.

It took me a little while to see that Guapo does have a #5 (Groh); he just left out a carriage return.
   88. OCF Posted: October 25, 2004 at 09:50 PM (#937019)
And Brian H. (10. Groh). What is it about Heinie - is he too modest to take his place at the beginning of a line?
   89. OCF Posted: October 25, 2004 at 10:02 PM (#937041)
50 ballots so far, including robc. Don't act on post #83. The election is decided, since it would take nearly 20 more ballots to shift the order of 2nd and 3rd. So far it looks like the best possible consensus score would be 20, with the range of actual scores from -9 to 15.
   90. Brian H Posted: October 25, 2004 at 11:16 PM (#937097)
Didn't mean to slight poor Heinie Groh (any more than my ranking at #10 already did).
I've always had trouble getting my ballot posted the way I want for some reason (I gave up on trying to embolden anyone, the TABs never seem to turn out right and the accent mark for Torrienti was impossible). Anyway, I assume it was Slug and Christobal this time....
   91. jimd Posted: October 25, 2004 at 11:42 PM (#937112)
Ballot for 1937

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

The greatest players are those who combine a high peak with longevity. However, a player can demonstrate greatness for a shorter period of time and then be unable to follow through with the longevity, which is partly a function of luck (amongst other things such as genetics and discipline). OTOH, a player can demonstrate longevity but not demonstrate "greatness" (no high peak).

Both of these types of players are flawed, but I think both have a place in the HOM, because there are not enough truly great players available to fill the HOM quota. I try to balance the two types, not leaning one way or the other. Although it may seem like my ballot caters to peak players, it only looks that way because the majority of voters here tend to elect most of the good career players (high peak or no) while leaving most of the great-peak/short-career guys behind.

1) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball" (excluding those in the upper slots). All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible; elected to my PHOM over a decade ago.

2) H. HEILMANN -- Defense notwithstanding, too good an offensive peak to ignore, particularly on this ballot.

3) C. TORRIENTE -- !

4) M. CAREY -- Enough extra career over Hooper (by Win Shares) to land mid-ballot.

5) J. RYAN -- Here comes the glut. Much better peak than Van Haltren. Best outfielder of the late 1880's; not great after the train wreck.

6) S. COVELESKI -- Very strong peak.

7) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; looked at new WARP and liked what I saw.

8) F. JONES -- Reached the top of the OF heap before he walked away.

9) N. WILLIAMSON -- My system rates him just ahead of Groh at 3B.

10) H. GROH -- See above.

11) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

12) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

13) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Deserves votes, though not inclusion (at least yet).

14) H. HOOPER -- Long solid career.

15) H. LONG -- Great defensive player on a great defensive team.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Jim Whitney, Jim McCormick, Silver King,
19-21) Dick Redding, Tommy Bond, Jose Mendez,
22-24) Del Pratt, George Sisler, Hugh Duffy,
25-27) Gavy Cravath, Rube Waddell, Spotswood Poles
28-30) Lip Pike, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley
   92. Max Parkinson Posted: October 26, 2004 at 12:02 AM (#937129)
I've just had a ballot destroyed by cyberspace. AAARRGH.

Quickly, so I get in under the deadline, without comments 'cause I'm not typing them again...

1. Jennings
2. Groh
3. Heilmann
4. Torriente
5. Coveleski
6. Pike
7. Hooper
8. Veach
9. Redding
10. Waddell
11. Konetchy
12. Fielder Jones
13. Carey
14. Mays
15. Griffith

I hate this system sometimes...
   93. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 26, 2004 at 12:16 AM (#937135)
You made it Max. The election is now over.

The winners are Heilmann and Torriente. I'll have the election page up sometime tonight.

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