I'm holding off on my ballot until Chris posts those Bullet Joe Rogan equivalants. It would be easy for me to place him at the top of my ballot like many others are doing (and where I'm leaning towards), but I have the most respect for Chris' analysis when it comes to the Negro Leaguers, so I would rather be safe than sorry for now. We want to get the right guy(s) this election.

WARP3 is the main tool (and this week's ballot accounts for the most recent changes). Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures.

None of the major league newbies make my ballot. Some lack a peak (Rice, Grimes), some lack a career (Wilson). Uhle and Luque are close, but just off.


1. Hughie Jennings (1) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

2. Bobby Veach (2) - Love his peak, was super-strong both offensively and defensively. Moves up big. I'm his best friend, so I should make sure to justify this. For 7 years (1915-1917, 1919-1922), he was simply a very, very strong player. Great defender in left by nearly every measure, strong OPSs with high peaks, and all this in the strong league.

3. Joe Rogan (new) - Not waiting on Chris's WS numbers because he's such a unqiue case that I think the WS numbers could vastly miss on him. At a minimum, we're looking at a 110 ERA+ and a 110 OPS+ for 12-13 years. I think he's quite clearly a top 100-150 player (as I also feel about Jennings and Veach). I might change my mind and put him above those guys if he's still around next week (particularly if his ERA+ or OPS+ numbers go up in my mind any), but for now, the fact that he was 27 when he started in the NL rather than 31 takes away a few years of army credit and lands him here.

4. José Méndez (3) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting as a pitcher moves him to one spot above him, but he doesn't get credit in my system for his offensive rebirth (I don't think he'd have had it in the big leagues).

5. Rube Waddell (4) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

6. Pete Browning (6) - I reexamined the 3 "bat" candidates from the earlier days (him, Jones, and Pike) and Browning comes out on top. Just one hell of a hitter. If we elect Beckley before him, we should be embarassed.

7. Joe Sewell (7) - Gets a boost because of the league differences. Strong defender, even if not elite, with a very strong bat as well. One more year like 1923, and he'd probably have topped my ballot.

8. Wally Schang (8) - Big time peak with the bat considering the position, and a long career for the position as well. Carlton Fisk lite is a good description, I think. Boggles my mind that he's not getting more support, though I suppose we are approaching something of a catcher glut.

9. Dick Redding (9) - Of similar value to Mendez, but below him because of Mendez's bat, and Redding is a touch lighter on the peak.

10. Dobie Moore (10) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak.

11. John Beckwith (new) - Seems to have been one hell of a hitter. Doesn't get much credit on the historical polls for a variety of reasons, some seemingly valid, some not. Exactly how bad was his defense? Hard to say in context. Also a major argument between our experts about his HR hitting skill. For now, he is here. Could move up.

12. Spotswood Poles (11) - A slightly lesser Pete Hill. Worthy of election. Nice glove, but bat puts him down here.

13. Fielder Jones (12) - Just can't keep him off my ballot. Enough bat to go with his excellent glove to develop a peak and career mix.

14. Bill Monroe (14) - Was a hell of a hitter in the early days of the organized Negro Leagues, when he was already up in age. Could be vastly underrating him, don't think I'm overrating him. I'd rather have him than Grant, who we (and I) probably jumped the gun on.

15. Lave Cross (--) - Jumps over Griffin after the reminder that he deserves a touch of catcher bonus. Extremely long career considering that he played 3B and C, and not without a peak either. Amazing defender, soso hitter, but 3rd was a critical position in his time.

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Pike - Think Browning is the better choice from the early hitters. My problem with Lip is that his big years are clustered on the wrong end of his NA career from the pre-NA years he needs credit for to make my ballot. With that said, I have no serious problem with his induction, I could easily be wrong.

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too.

Griffith - Behind Sisler, who is pretty far off my ballot (though not so far that he couldn't get back into the mix). I still think Waddell is the correct choice of the long time ballot pitchers to be inducted.

Sisler - Peak isn't good enough for his short productive career. Only one season of the superpeak that he needed 3-4 seasons of to make it.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Van Haltren - Around #25. Too many OFs ahead of him on my ballot right now.

Childs - Falls off my ballot. I'm wrestling with second base, and if it truly was like 3B today, then he lacks some offense.

1940 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I'll gladly incorporate WARP when they clearly tell me how they reach their numbers. I’m beginning to look a little more at peak. Consequently, these rankings could change significantly next week.)

1. Bullet Joe Rogan I’ve never used i9’s. Rogan is usually listed on the all-time Negro League staff, along with Paige, Williams and Bill Foster. Combined with his hitting, he belongs in the HOM. PHOM 1940, along with Mordecai Brown.

2. John Beckwith Based on the Negro League discussions he seems to be a sure HOM player.

3. Burleigh Grimes I originally had Rixey rated ahead, but Grimes was better during more head-to-head seasons. Rixey just pitched a few more solid seasons. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

4.Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. Not much between him #2 and Grimes #14. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

5. George Van Haltren Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

6. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters, but I’m a career/prime man. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

7. Jimmy Ryan My system likes Jimmy about as much as Van Haltren and Sheckard. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

8. Sam Rice Looks like the 1920’s version of Van Haltren. Solid player, not a high peak. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1917, 1919-1930, WWI credit 1918. (14 HOM seasons)

9. Harry Hooper At the bottom of the long career, low-peak glut, which now takes up most of my ballot. MVP candidate 1918, All-Star candidate 1910-1917, 1919-20, 1922, 1924. (13 HOM seasons) PHOM 1931.

10.Ben Taylor Ben’s lengthy, solid career belongs with the long career, low-peak glut.

11. Joe Sewell Looks like the best of the available infielders to me. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

12. Dick Redding It seems most difficult to rate Negro League pitchers. Had a longer career than Mendez, although probably not as high a peak.

13. Vic Willis I took a long look at Vic this week, and think he ranks up there with the solid (but probably not HOM) candidates. Some questions about league quality with all four of these pitchers. MVP candidate 1899, All-Star candidate 1898, 1901-1909 (11 HOM seasons)

14. Wilbur Cooper Good career candidate, with questions about league quality. Never really an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1914, 1916-1924 (10 HOM seasons)

15. Hugh Duffy This week I decided he should rate below the pitchers. MVP candidate 1891, 1893-1894, All-Star candidate 1889-1890, 1892, 1895-1899 (11 HOM seasons)

LAST YEAR TOP TEN

Lip Pike – The last 1870’s holdover. MVP candidate 1876, All-star candidate 1871-75, 1877-78. Some credit for 1866-1870 (at least 10 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown or perhaps even Waddell or Coveleski. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

George Sisler – A decent peak but surprisingly only one 30+ WS season. Probably deserves ballot placement in future seasons, but this is a deep ballot. MVP candidate 1917, 1920. All-Star candidate 1916-1922, 1925, 1927-1928. (10 HOM seasons.)

Rube Waddell - Fun man who needed to play longer. MVP candidate 1902, 1905. All-Star candidate 1901, 1903-1904, 1906-1908. (8 HOM seasons).

I thought Rice might beat Beckley because of 2987 hits, but he doesn’t because of low OPS+ -- he’s just below Sewell but well above the Carey/Roush level. Grimes is in the Faber/Willis/Rixey group, now just off bottom of what I think is a very full ballot. Pennock just a little below that but not much. Luque off bottom on W/L record and Uhle on OPS+ (they’re both probably in the 50s.) Judge looks comparable to Roush, but a little better. Wilson, however, while a VERY short career, would have been #1 with about 1/3 more career, his hitting stats are better than Heilmann, so I put him just below Browning.

Bullet Joe Rogan was a great player, but NOT the second coming of Parisian Bob. Without the data we have for others, I am leaving him below the ballot for this year, in the hope of avoiding an electoral mistake; he will move up next year or whenever I’m more comfortable with the data. I’m pretty sure he wasn’t Smokey Joe Williams, anyway, and am getting increasingly uncomfortable with electing so many Negro Leaguers based on dodgy stats as we get towards the 1930s, which have clearly been over-hyped by the HOF.

Beckwith, after the Cobb estimates of WS below 300, is below Ben Taylor.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1) Jake Beckley. I have to say the refusal of half the electorate to put Beckley on their ballots at all is becoming more than a little irritating – leaving him off altogether while electing outfielder flotsam with 400 fewer hits and 20 points less OPS+ is, I am coming to think, not intellectually justifiable. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch but above Torriente, I think. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) By a significant margin the best pitcher on the current ballot, much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

7. (N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, so good I just couldn’t ignore him, better than both Heilmann and Browning (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others, indeed with 105 of them in 1930 they were clearly treating him like Barry Bonds.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7) Sam Leever. 194-100 is more career than 1720 hits, so Leever goes above Childs. That and an ERA+ of 123 also get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory, MUCH better than the 1920s glut. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-9-8-8) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

10. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B, and I’ve been undervaluing him, significantly.

11. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

12. (N/A-11) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

13. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was, and above Faber/Rixey.

14. Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

15. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

OFF BALLOT

16. Bullet Joe Rogan. Very unsure of this placement, but not a HOMer on pitching alone, and not convinced he could have hit as well as that in the majors.

17. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

18. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays. Faber through Rixey all very close.

19. (N/A) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115, not quite as good as Willis, even though huge 4,494 IP. Stuffed this year by where end of ballot falls, will presumably get lucky in the future.

20. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

21. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134 and moves up owing to pitcher dearth, although his unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

22. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak, and by comparison with rather anonymous 20s players on ballot.

23. (9-12-12-11-9-10-10-13-12-15-14-N/A-12-13-11-13-13-15-N/A) Lip Pike - Like Start, give some credit for missing 1860s. However, normalize 1871-78 season by season and he gets 1,592 hits after 26 - not quite an obvious HOM-er. 4 “normalized 200-hit” seasons, but only just, whereas Meyerle’s 1871 peak normalizes to 320 (obviously a random fluctuation, but in the right direction!)TB+BB/PA .478, TB+BB/Outs .713.

24. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike. Lower than Pike because not a huge pre-’71 career.
25. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
26. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.

27. John Beckwith. If he’d been a good fielder he’d have been ballot-worthy, but a poor fielding SS with under 300WS is close but no cigar.

28. (N/A) Herb Pennock 240-162, better record than almost all contemporaries, but mostly for the Yankees and ERA+ only 106.

29. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
30. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
31. Jack Quinn ERA+ of 114, and 247-218, not as good as Willis, Faber or Rixey.
32. Deacon McGuire
33. Tony Mullane
34. Jim McCormick
35. Dick Redding
36. Joe Judge TB+BB/PA .467, TB+BB/Outs .726, just a smidgin better than Roush, in spite of lower OPS+.
37. Edd Roush
38. Spotswood Poles.
39. Larry Doyle
40. Roger Bresnahan.
41. Harry Hooper.
42. Jules Thomas.
43. Wilbur Cooper
44. Bruce Petway.
45. Jack Clements
46. Bill Monroe
47. Jose Mendez
48. Chief Bender
49. Ed Konetchy
50. Jesse Tannehill
51. Bobby Veach
52. Tommy Leach
53. Lave Cross
54. Tom York

“I’ll take non-traditional players for $1000, Alex.”

”Your answer is: 13 players who made PhillyBooster’s ballot who were either pitchers, or who starred in a league other than the American and National, including the National Association, Pacific Coast League, American Association (major or minor), Cuban League, and Negro League.”

“Um, who are . . . ?”

1. Jake Beckley (3) -- One of two “normal” major leaguers, alone with Bresnahan. Debating which of several near-identical shortstop are better is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. There are several first basemen, all of whom tower above the 11th, 12th, and 13th best shorstops to date. Beckley is the best of these. Ed Konetchy is #2. If we've got to rank shorstops, give me Beckwith, Sewell, and Tinker as my top 3 eligibles. I'm listing them here because you won't see any of them listed below.

2. Eppa Rixey (2) -- Sometimes I wonder whether Innings Pitched aren't the most important thing a pitcher can do. With obvious exceptions (see Beckley, above), I think I might be in the hitting-peak, pitching-career category. Call it shell-shock from all the Paul Abbott starts I saw in Philadelphia last year, but one thing an inning of Eppa Rixey gives you, is it prevents you from having to use an inning of Paul "7-run inning" Abbott. If a great hitter must miss a game, and you have to replace him with a scrub, the worst he'll do is go 0 for 4, and there's a good chance you'll still win the game. Pick the worst hitter you can imagine your favorite team having -- one thing you can say is that he'll never lose the game for you in the first inning. Pitchers always can. I think one thing "replacement level" misses for pitchers is "implosion rate." Great pitchers often will not implode for at least nine innings. For most other, though, they are only good for a limited time (number of pitches), and then you have to replace them. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Paul Abbott's 70 ERA+ in Philadelphia constitutes "replacement level." What that misses is that Abbott's ERA+ was only 70 because when he started to lose it in the 3rd of 4th innings, the Phillies had a better option in the bullpen -- an above replacement level long reliever -- to pull him for. If a team was made up of 10 replacement level pitchers (Abbott and the nine Costellos, say), you would need to use four pitchers a day just to finish the game, Abbott's ERA would skyrocket because he wouldn't get pulled as soon when he started floundering, and the team wouldn't have enough pitchers to play all of its games. Even disaster teams -- say, the 1962 Mets or 2003 Tigers -- had starting rotations that weren't really so bad; they each earned a combined 13 Wins Above Replacement. The thought of an actual replacement-level pitching staff is really too horrible to even consider. That really would be the 1899 Cleveland Spider where, if you look, almost every pitcher had a career high ERA, since when he struggled there was no one to replace him with. So, in short, for every 300 IP I compare to Eppa Rixey and his 4500 IP, I am forced to asked myself "Do I want Rixey, or do I want Pitcher X, plus 1500 innings of Paul Abbott, with no one warming up in the bullpen." When put that way, it's not close.

3. Mickey Welch (4) -- Same case, different era.

4. Jose Mendez (5) -- I agree his is better than Luque, but unlike many I will have both on my ballot, instead of neither. Will the electorate elect any Cuban pitchers? (Dihigo doesn't count). From Mendez and Luque, it's a pretty steep ride down to Luis Tiant and Mike Cuellar. In fifty years, when you're deciding (as I likely will) that Tiant is just on the wrong side of borderline, think back to the trailblazers and ask how a century of Cuban talent could lead to zero Cuban HoM pitchers.

5. Bullet Joe Rogan (n/e) -- Was he better than Caruthers? I'd guess yes, but don't have him #1 due to personal conservatism. I can't imagine him any lower, and won't be shocked, surprised, or scandalized if he cruises in.

6. Gavy Cravath (6) -- Full credit for the nearly-half of his career that is buried in old PCL and AA stat-books. Even conservative estimages put him above 300 win shares -- probably over 350. He was among the best deadball sluggers ever.

7. Dolf Luque (n/e) -- See Mendez comment. Also, Cravath comment. It took the World War player dearth for Luque to finally get a solid shot at the majors, despite numerous seasons of top-rate pitching at a young age in Cuba, the Negro Leagues, and the top white minors. He doesn't get credit for more than he did, but he does get to fill out the left side of his bell curve a little. Peak voters also might want to consider "one year peak" and Luque's 1923, to see where it ranks in all-time great pitching seasons ever. A quick eyeball shows Cy Young with one season with a higher WARP-1 -- in 100 more innings in 1893 -- and a couple by Walter Johnson.

8. Roger Bresnahan (7) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

9. Lip Pike (8) -- Everyone thinks the 1870s are either deeply underrepresented (by number) or deeply overrepresented (by percent of ABs). That means it's probably about right, and wouldn't be harmed by one more superstar.



10. Pete Browning (10) -- Though experiment. What statistics would you require a player to have in order to make your ballot, if he peaked in the AA from 1882 to 1885? Is it possible for any mortal to attain those levels, and survive the league adjustment?

11. Bill Monroe (11)
12. Clark Griffith (12)
13. Dick Redding (13)
14. Vic Willis (14)
15. Carl Mays (off) -- New pennants added numbers led me to re-examine his unique hitting talents, which added to his pitching skills. Loses style points for killing his opponent.

16. Childs, 17. Konetchy, 18. Sisler, 19. Beckwith, 20. Schang

Off ballot -- All the shorstops and left fielders. The flip side of the "catcher bonus" is the easy position demerits. I don't know WHY shorstop was easier, but it just seemed to accumulate lots more long careers. Maybe because it was comparatively further away from the ball than corner infielders, so less likely to have your hands ripped apart by technologically inferior gloves. In any event, your stats of choice all say SS and LF rack up lots of what you love, so you keep voting for them. To the extent it skews positional balance as far as it has been, I fault the stats.

Early 1940 Exit Polling Voting Update:

With FOUR votes cast, no player has been named on all four ballot. In addition, the 8 "elect me" votes have been awarded to 7 different players.

Glad to see we won't be all over the board like last year.

Plus it's a surprise win for Jake Beckley -- which will doubtless hold up about as well as that other exit poll :-))

1940 ballot
Sam Rice and Hack Wilson make my personal HoM this year

1. George Sisler Bill James’s biggest mistake (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
3. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
4. Sam Rice 2987 hits (makes my personal HoM this year)
5. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
6. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
7. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
8. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (makes my personal HoM this year)
9. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
10. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
11. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
12. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
13. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
14. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
15. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
16. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
17. Bullet Joe Rogan like all Negro leaguers I wish I had better stats
18. Lip Pike 465 slugging percentage (made my personal HoM in 1910)
19. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
20. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
21. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
22. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
23. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
24. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings is not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in the 20’s pitchers

A short and impressionistic ballot:

(1) Bullet Joe Rogan (new)-- Before this project began, I would have put him well ahead of the other eligible guys. Nothing I've learned about him or any of them changes that conclusion.

(2) Hughie Jennings (1st)-- Pennants added nicely illustrates how much career value were packed into those five seasons. (It would be a lot more if you used WARP rather than WS to calculate it too.) He had one of the top 300 careers of all-time. And one of the top 50 peaks. If you value peak on its own terms (rather than as a multiplier when calculating career value) he zooms to the top of this list.

(3) George Van Haltren (3rd)--PA nicely illustrates how overqualified for the HoM he is if you trust the WS numbers. Since he is artificially helped by WS (as a league-average 19th century pitcher and then as a CF), I've got him here, but he could be #1.

(4) Lip Pike (4th)-- Would be #1 if not for timeline issues and #2 if not for questions about his "effort."

(5) Cupid Childs (3rd)-- Feel like I was following WARP and overrating 2B a bit.

(6) Frank Chance (6th)-- Because his rate was so high, his career and peak numbers are both surprisingly good. And he gets more credit in the bullshit dump than any other full-career major leaguer.

(7) Charley Jones (7th)-- Always in the top 10 in adjusted OPS+ and could play some defense when young.

(8) Hugh Duffy (5th)-- Loses coin flips to the above two this week; maybe weighed down by the long list of OF possibilities.

(9) Eppa Rixey (8th)-- Probably worthy but the coexistence of he, Grimes, and Faber makes me nervous as does the really poor K rates.

(10) Grimes (new)-- His 252-170 run (with a roughly 115 ERA+) from 1918 to 1931 would look better standing on its own, but the other years were essentially neutral, albeit ugly.

11) Edd Roush (10th)-- Better than Carey or Ryan; roughly equivalent to a less durable Van Haltren. Nice peak win shares.

12) Joe Sewell (9th)-- A bit closer to Long and Bancroft than I had thought, though still ahead of them in my book.

(13) Vic Willis (11th)-- Very similar to the Rixey-Faber-Grimes set.

(14) Dobie Moore (14th)-- As he's no Hughie, needs credit for the Army years to make my ballot, but gets them.

(15) George Sisler (unranked)-- Keep going back and forth on him; want to know why early Sabermetric systems (TPR, offensive winning percentage) liked his peak so much more than the new ones (WARP, WS).

I've got Ryan, Beckley, and Griffith right behind Sisler, see Welch as too dependent on big seasons during transition years (and thus have him around 25th), and don't understand the argument for Waddell (not worth the bother to manage).

Beckwith is awfully close, but I see him as having almost no defensive value in the major leagues. The question is whether his bat was closer to Jimmie Foxx or Jack Fournier. Right now I'm erring on the side of caution.

Genuine apologies go out to Bresnahan and Schang who seem about as well qualified as Charlie Bennett and might make the ballot eventually on that basis. Also to Jose Mendez who might make my ballot when Dazzy Vance joins the discussion.

Karlmagnus wrote: Jake Beckley.....leaving him off altogether while electing outfielder flotsam with 400 fewer hits and 20 points less OPS+ is, I am coming to think, not intellectually justifiable.
---
I understand that for career voters, Beckley oughta be on a ballot. But as a counterargument, what about Ed Roush? Better OPS+/RC/EqA. Only 3+ fewer fulltime years. Better prime. Played CF instead of 1B. His raw numbers are poor since he played in the worst hitter's era. How do you justify Roush as 37th on your ballot?

3+ years is a LOT, and 1B in the 90s was more valuable than CF before 1920. 550 hits is a substantial difference, whereas the difference in OPS+ is marginal.

I have Jennings in the high 20s -- I'm a career/pitcher/non-ML voter for the most part.

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Joe Rogan – I think he is pretty funny on Fear Factor. A unique talent. As Cobb points out (our Cobb) his great conditioning probably allowed him to be a more effective two way player than anyone in history. Probably should be Number 1.

3. Sam Rice – marginally better than Beckley, 2987 is a number that is difficult for a career voter like myself to ignore.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Baseballreality.com has him as the best first baseman in baseball for a long time. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

5. George Sisler – Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter. Sisler, Beckley and Rice are pretty much the same to me, which is why I'm not surprised to find peak voters who have all three of them off-ballot.

6. Burleigh Grimes – takes Faber’s spot on my ballot. I like the wins, don’t like the ERA+. Welch-lite.

7. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

8. Lip Pike – 4 monster seasons, 4 more not too bad, plus 4 undocumented.

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. Redding – probably the 6th or 7th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams, Paige, Foster, Foster and Rogan), and that is good enough for me.

11. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected.

12. Eppa Rixey – I’ve moved him down a bit – as I trust the consensus on pitchers relative to each other in case where I don’t feel I have a good sense of it. Nonetheless, HOM worthy.

13. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

14. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense.

15. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

16. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence. The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS. I like him better than Monroe and Moore but I’m not sure he’s Hornsby-dark. He could move up.

17. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

18. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right.

19. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Could be below Duffy. Eight pitchers in my top 20.

20. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

21. Hack Wilson – all peak, no career. Lip Pike-lite.

"1B in the 90s was more valuable than CF before 1920."
---
Not sure about that. First, most of Roush's career was 1920-forward. Second, Roush is 10th in RCAA and RCAP from his prime period (1915-1926), while Beckley is 18th in both measures (1888-1905). However, Beckley does beat him in Runs Created (career), being 4th best in his era versus Roush's 11th, so I see why Jake could be ahead on a ballot [maybe not 36 spots tho :) ]

In the end, maybe I could call 1B and CF a draw, position-wise for these two.

Will Bullet Joe Rogan, Burleigh Grimes, John Beckwith, Sam Rice, Dolph Luque or Hack Wilson allow us to have more consensus than last “year?”

If your hot rookie bats .185 for April and you actually leave him in the lineup, then his batting average will probably go up, because where else would it go? On that general principle, our consensus scores are likely to be not quite as bad as they were in 1940.

Well, that's a theory. In any case, it isn't going to be pretty.

1940 ballot.

1. Bullet Joe Rogan (new) The standard we've set by inducting Coveleski and Faber makes it hard to justify not also including Rixie - and yet I find it hard to get excited about him. Obviously we're far less certain about Rogan - but there may be a level of peak dominance that Rixie never reached. #1 in this year isn't the same as what #1 was a few years ago and will be a few years hence - but that's the way the project goes.
2. George Van Haltren (5, 5, 5, 3, 1) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates. I'm not completely convinced he's a HoMer, but then you can say that about everyone on the ballot.
3. Joe Sewell (----, 3) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.
4. Larry Doyle (7, 7, 3, 1, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. I'm still his friend, but maybe not worth an "elect me" spot.
5. John Beckwith (new) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit. Beckwith had an environment more favorable to a hitter, and not all of the instabilities of his career were out of his own control.
6. Eppa Rixey (----, 5) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak. (And a tip of the hat to PhillyBooster for his impassioned defense of inning-eaters.)
7. Jake Beckley (14, 14, 13, 13, 6) Not much peak, long career.
8. Cupid Childs (----, 7) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
9. Hugh Duffy (10, 10, 8, 6, 9) 34th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
10. Edd Roush (--, 10, 8, 10) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
11. George Sisler (-, 15, 15, 15, 11) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
12. Rube Waddell (11, 11, 11, 9, 12) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
13. Jose Mendez (16, 17, 15, 10, 13)
14. Frank Chance (17, 18, 12, 17, 14) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
15. Roger Bresnahan (13, 13, 12, 12, 15) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
16. Jimmy Ryan (6, 6, 7, 5, 16) The victim of my shuffle. Not as much CF value as some.
17. Dick Redding (--, 23, 11, 17) We've got lots of good pitchers, and are about to get more. Mendez and Redding belong in the discussion; exactly where is impossible to figure.
18. Dolf Luque (new) Interesting case, but joins the backlog of pitchers crowding the edges of my ballot.
19. Hugh Jennings (25, --, 25, 18) All he's got is 5 years.
20. Wally Schang (--, 14, 14, 19) A much better hitter than most catchers. Not the hitter Bresnahan is, but closer to being a pure catcher.
21. Sam Rice (new) Comparable to Hooper; either he could rank lower or Hooper higher.
22. Gavy Cravath (15, 16, 16, 16, 20) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.
23. Rabbit Maranville (----, 21). I know he wasn't much of an offensive player, but 2500 game middle infield careers are a distinct rarity.
24. Tommy Leach (23, 25, 19, 18, 22) Not as much offense as either Groh or Carey, but not that far behind them, either. Those are the ones to compare him to.
25. Spottswood Poles (----, 23)
The next 5 would include Vic Willis, Mickey Welch, George J. Burns, Clark Griffith, and Hack Wilson (similar to Cravath.) I don't have Lip Pike close to the ballot; never have.

our consensus scores are likely to be not quite as bad as they were in 1940

Arrgh - proofreading! That should be "...our consensus scores in 1940 are likely to be not quite as bad as they were in 1939."

How much would I be willing to bet on that? Uh, can anyone tell me where the exit ...

I think it's a pretty good bet that our consensus scores in 1941 will be a LOT better than in 1940 :-))

None of my ballot was inducted last year.

What's happening in the league this year... Yankees are the first to win 4 straight titles despite Lou Gehrig's sudden illness. McKechnie has swiftly built a pennant winner in Cincinnati. And that kid in Boston had quite a rookie season.

1940 Ballot

1. Joe Rogan (ne) -- No doubt of his worthiness, though not quite a no-brainer in my opinion. Slim ballot lets him cruise on through, but I have no doubts that he would eventually have been inducted anyways -- I'd have had him #1 the last two years as well.
2. Lip Pike (5-4-2-1-2-2-1-1-1-2-2-7-5-5-3-1-1) -- Pick Lip! Does well in Joe's Pennants Added numbers... numbers that are missing the first five years of his career. Toss in his solid pre-NA play that included being Brooklyn's best slugger in '70, second to Start in '69, and excellent 'rookie' season on champion Athletics squad in '66 and then he's a much more convincing candidate.
3. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
4. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, though. Unlike McGraw, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career rate stats a bit. Also unlike McGraw, he was quite durable inside his peak.
5. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues -- even for this peak voter -- are keeping him below Groh.
6. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
7. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
8. Mickey Welch (nr-14-11-11-12-15-13-13-11-9-7) -- 300 game winner. Played for great teams in an easy era to win games, but research here is saying he did more to earn his W's than previously thought. Still, his meager 113 ERA+ is keeping him low on the ballot.
9. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. George Sisler (ne-14-13-11-9) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter, trailing only Ruth, Cobb, Hornsby, Speaker & Jackson with a big gap down to the next group of Heilmann, Youngs and Roush (155 RC+). After the injury, he was quite mediocre (103 RC+). Peak is high enough to make the ballot. His peak is shorter and lower than JJackson's which is what keeps him relatively low.
11. Roger Bresnahan (15-15-nr-nr-13-11-10-10-11-15-15-14-12-10) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
12. Wally Schang (nr-11) -- Persuaded by arguments last week. This guy could hit and was the best catcher before the emergence of Hartnett/Cochrane.
13. Clark Griffith (nr-15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
14. Joe Sewell (ne-12) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.
15. Tommy Leach (nr-15-13-13) -- Hard to rate due to mix of 3B & CF, but does well in Pennants Added. Wouldn't make the ballot on CF alone, 3B play boosts him onto the ballot.

Omissions:

Rixey -- Was 15th last year, none of my ballot was inducted. Rogan knocked him off the ballot.
Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10. His 125 career OPS+ is actually SLG-heavy which is cause for a slight discount... probably explains why his career high in WS is only 23.
Waddell -- I love the strikeouts, I like the 3 of 4 year peak. Evidence several years ago shows that he gave up more than his share of unearned runs, though. Doesn't have the peak necessary for a "short" career induction. Could be swayed, I suppose.

"His 125 career OPS+ is actually SLG-heavy which is cause for a slight discount... probably explains why his career high in WS is only 23."

Agreed on the SLG heavy discount, but WS undervaluing 1B in his era and the schedule are the reasons he never exceeded 23 WS.

Adjusting to 162 games, he had 27 in 1890, 25 in 1900 and 24 in 1904. He had 20 or more WS 11 times and 18-19 three other seasons.

1940 Ballot Time:
I finally finished adjusting win shares for scheduled season length for all players through 1903 to give a feeling for what the numbers meant for 154 game season. There were some surprises. And guys whose rep is built mainly on career got killed.
To recap, my rankings start with the four following numbers: career win shares, win shares in 3 consecutive years (peak), win shares in best 7 years (prime), win shares per 162 games or 40 starts. Prime is weighted the heaviest, then peak, then the two career measures. In order to slot in pitchers with position players I constructed a mythical “Best” pitcher and position player. Basically, the pitcher is Johnson with Young’s career length and the position player is a cross between Wagner and Cobb (Using Ruth’s numbers distorted things too much). Then I compared all the elected players to this made up player to see what standards we have created. Then I compare the eligibles to themselves and whom we have elected.
Then I adjust for number of times being best in league or majors (taking into account competition) and for black/grey ink (taking into account categories in which they led). I know there were differences in league quality over the years (AA early and late, NL for much of the early 20th century), but I don't know of a systematic adjustment that makes total sense to me. Another post for another time. Negro League players are slotted in by trying to find the white player with the most similar numbers and slotting the NeL'er in where the white player would go. Also, I try to follow the 8 Arguments for a HoMer from James' Politics of Glory/Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame.


1. Joe Rogan – Don’t have MLEs for him, but the numbers from Riley, Holway, James, the Biographical Encyclopedia of Baseball, and the Rogan Thread convince me he is one of people battling it out for 3rd among NeL pitchers – though Bill Foster may have the better argument. I don’t like to elect people on their first ballot if I can help it, but he seems to have the strongest arguments of any candidate. Caruthers with a longer time before injuries.

2. Mickey Welch: Please see posts 107, 108 on the discussion thread for 1939 for my reasons.
Going over the GREAT list provided by Esteban post 199 in the 39 Ballot Discussion Thread, I noticed something that might be a clue as to why Welch's ERA+ is lower than other 80s pitchers. The following is the number of times each HoMer pitched for a team whose defense max'd out the Win Shares defensive percentage:
Spalding 1 time (the only year for which we have defensive win shares)
Ward: twice - 1880, 1882
Galvin: twice - 1879, 1885
Keefe: four - 1883, 1884, 1885, 1892
Radbourn: five - 1882, 1883, 1884, 1889, 1890
Clarkson: eight - 1885, 1886, 1887, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1892 (both teams he pitched for this year), 1894
Caruthers: five - 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888
Rusie: once - 1894

and Welch ??: one time - 1885.

3. Pete Browning - The best hitter not enshrined. Adjusting for season length, he has the second most peak win shares (Jennings 1st), the most prime win shares, and the highest per 162 games. His OPS+ (162) is the highest among eligibles. Only Brouthers, Jackson, and Cobb have higher career OPS+ (170, 170, 167). 8 time STATS all-star. 5 time Win Shares all-star. 2 time major league all-star.

4. Charley Jones – I give full-credit for his black-balled years (b/c he asked for his pay on the day it was due instead of waiting for the first day back at home after a road trip and he had a drinking problem). For his blackballed years, I credit him the average of the 6 years surrounding the suspension. Fourth best peak, 3rd best prime, tied for 2nd best per 162 games (Chance and McGraw). 5 STATS, 4 Win Shares league, 3 win shares majors all-star teams (not counting blackballed years). Third best OPS+ (149) among eligibles - only Browning and Cravath ahead.

5. Hugh Duffy - No, not just guys from the 1880s. 3rd highest peak (Jennings and Browning), 3rd highest prime (Browning, C. Jones), 6th highest career. A key member of the great Boston teams of the 1890s. An "A+" centerfielder - an integral part of one the most defensively dominant teams ever. 4 retro gold glvoes. STATS twice, Win Shares 5 times league and majors All-Star. Only Cravath has higher black ink score.

6. Cupid Childs - a slight drop. His numbers are not as impressive as some players below, but he was the best at his position for 7 years in 1890s, with a 2nd and two 3rds for good measure. His defense ranked as a "B+". Part of a defensive group in Cleveland that maxed out on win shares 5 times. He still has the 7th best peak (I know the 1890 AA was weak, but I don't know how much to discount), and 7th best prime. Regarding the 1890 season, Childs earned 31 WS in the AA. The only other 2nd baseman within 10 WS was Hub Collins (28) in the NL, then McPhee with 21 in the NL. The Players League was led by Bierbauer with 20. The National League was weak as well as most of the best players were in the Players League. Childs is still the best 2nd baseman that year.
His .416 OBP is second only to McGraw.

7. Tommy Leach - Maybe the best defensive player on the ballot. "A+" defense at both 3rd and CF with a combined 7 gold gloves. He and Wagner were key reasons that so many different pitchers could have great years pitching for Pittsburgh in the oughts. 5th highest career, 9th highest prime among eligibles. 3 time STATS, 5 times win shares all-star. Could see his position drop soon...

8. Big Surprise to me here - George Van Haltren - Not as high a peak or prime as Duffy, but the best adjusted career of any eligible. Highest career, 4th highest prime, 7th highest per/162 games. Could run well and win shares sees him as deserving 2 gold glvoes in outfield. Only 2 win shares all-stars, but he was competing against Hamilton, Delahanty, Burkett, Kelley, Keeler, and Duffy to name a few for one of 3 spots in the outfield.

9. Ed Roush - 8th highest career total, 13th best peak, 11th best prime. Win shares "A-" centerfielder with 5 gold gloves. 126 OPS+ is much higher than Carey's 107. 9 seasons of 20 win shares and 3 of 30. 5 time STATS and Win Shares league all-star, 2 time majors All-Star.

10. George Burns (the Giant) - I just posted a comparison to Carey. I think Burns was a better leadoff man and had a higher peak and prime than Carey, if only by a bit. 11th best peak, 8th highest prime. 2 times STATS all-star, 5 times Win Shares all-star, 3 times Win Shares major league all-star. 10 seasons of 20 win shares, 3 seasons of 30. Fantastic at taking walks. 11 straight years without an off year.

11. Vic Willis - another surprise - 4 times win shares league all-star. 8 years over 20 ws, 5 over 25, 2 over 30. Highest prime among eligible pitchers - post 1893. 2nd highest career (Rixey). One time best pitcher in league. 9 top 10s in wins and innings pitched. 5 top 10s in ERA and ERA+ with 2 firsts in ERA+.

12. Fielder Jones - 10th in career, 13th in prime. 5 times a win shares league all-star. A+ fielder with 7 gold gloves. Left the game after his best year because he could not deal with Comiskey.

13. Second Big Surprise - Hughie Jennings. I purposely have my prime at 7 years to prevent short career guys from being too high, but Jennings already had the highest peak before the adjustments. Highest peak and 5th highest prime slide him onto the ballot despite a poor career total. Great defender at short - key to the dominant Oriole defenses of the 1890s. 3 times best Shortstop by STATS and 4 times win shares.

14. Gahhh - Frank Chance - Chance, Fournier, Konetchy, or Sisler - Chance 5 times best major league (03-07), Konetchy 4 times best majors (09-11, 16, and argue 12), Fournier 4 times best majors (15, 23-25), Sisler 5 times best majors (17, 19-22). Everyone had b/t 231 win shares - Fournier and 292 - Sisler. Chance had the best per/162 games. Fournier had highest peak. Sisler had highest prime. Sisler had longest career, but second half of his career matches Jimmy Ryan’s for disastrous follow-up to great start (sinus infection vs. train wreck). This year, Chance’s high WS per 162 games is 3rd behind Browning and McGraw and his per/648 PA is the best. Anchored the winningest team over a 1- to 7- year period.

15. Ed Konetchy - squeezes on – and squeezes off Beckley. 4 times best in majors and very close another. Fantastic fielder when first base defense was much more important. Steps over Fournier on basis of career length.
There were about 15 guys under consideration for this spot.

drop-offs: Veach, Fournier, and Beckley.

People not on Ballot:
Rube Waddell: Closer to the ballot than I thought he would be - closer than Rixey or Faber. Career didn't last long enough. Problems with unearned runs discolor some of the greatness, especially when you consider he was allowing fewer balls in play.

Clark Griffith - damn close, at one point was at the bottom, but Willis pushed him off. The lack of BIG seasons in the 1890s hurts him - did his manager work him less than other big aces for a reason? He may go on next year.
The 1890s were a strange decade. Nichols and Young and Rusie could handle top 10 workloads every year. Most other pitchers with big years could not handle the stress and burnt themselves out so did not have the long careers or great career totals. On the other hand, Griffith was not overworked (only 2 top 10s in IP for his entire career), so stayed healthy, but lacked the big years (with an exception) that others had. How to balance?

Lip Pike - Despite my adjusting for shorter seasons, I still don't know how to balance the NA and pre-NA play where the quality of opposition was so uneven. I wish I had breakdowns for how he performed against the better teams in the leagues. With finals coming up, NA reevaluation is not going to happen for at least a month. Still being considered. I know he was great, but I have questions about his ethics. And why he moved about so much...

Sewell - I was really surprised by this. He had great positional leader numbers - 8 times best in league, 5 in majors. Everything was very good, but nothing was standout. I don’t think the AL was strong in shortstops during the 20s.
There is a knot of shortstops behind Jennings. Long, Bancroft, Sewell, and Tinker are within 14 places of each other among all the eligibles. Adjusted for season length, Long has the most win shares for career, peak and prime. Tinker has the best per 648 PA, Sewell the best per 162 games. Sewell has the best OPS+. All were great fielders, though Sewell may the least best of the four. I don’t see enough difference between the four to place one on the ballot, to say one is a HoMer over the other three. Sewell is close...


Rixey – Behind Cooper, Griffith, Grimes, and Waddell (at least). I like the 6 times top 4 pitchers in the league. Don't like never the best in the league. Weak peak: ranks 13th among eligible post-93 pitchers. Weak prime 11th among eligibles. I know he didn't have great defenses behind him, but my partial career breakdown seems to show he didn't face the heavy lifting - Alexander, Luque, and Donohue did that. If you mixed Faber's peak with Rixey, then you'd have a vote.

Newbies without a vote:
Grimes: Very close, but my system sees he and Cooper very close and if both could not go on, neither would. 5 WS all-stars with one first. Good career total, but not special. peak score is worse than Rixey’s. Very good peak score. Poor /per 300 IP score. Great black/grey ink. May go on a few years as I tweak the system after finals. Right now, there are a ton of new pitchers and they do not stand out from one another enough for me to put one on the ballot. Grimes is the closest. STILL trying to get the best balance between ptichers and outfielders.

Luque: Good big years, one AMAZING year. How did racism affect his career path? Lousy run support. But, only 3 league all-stars and did not string his big years back to back. Other than the All-star years, he had ZERO years with 20 or more win shares. His peak is NOT Jennings-esque. Did he pitch in the winter in Cuba? If he did, did it lead to too much wear and tear on the arm so he could not maintain a level close to his peaks of 21 and 23?

Pennock: Not a good enough career/peak/prime. Ranks about even with Rommel. If he did not land on the best team of the mid teens and the best of the 20s, he would not have the pretty numbers.

Uhle: 2 big years. Unluckily for him, he did not put his two league-leading years together. Good pitcher for a long time, but prime and peak were not high enough.

Rice: 300+ WS don’t mean much when you are never a league, let alone majors, all-star. Ranks about 15th among all outfielders, 5th among rightfielders. Similar to Beckley except Beckley has an OPS+ of 125 vs. Rice’s 112. He hit singles really well. Good fielder.

Judge: Ranks about even with McInnis, but McInnis pulls ahead on basis of a better peak. Only 2 years with 20+ win shares. Never a league all-star. Never a win shares gold glover. What an empty 270 win shares.

Wilson: 8th best centerfielder on my ballot. Great peak, good prime. Career totals are small enough that he needs a gigantic peak. There are a lot of outfielders with very similar numbers.

McManus: This guy is the 58th best second baseman according to James?? Short career, small peak, small prime...

Kamm: Take a look at this guy if you want to see some great defensive numbers from a 3rd baseman. short career, small peak small prime.

Beckwith: was going to be on the ballot. But then I compared him a little more to Dobie Moore and saw Moore as the better candidate. Among the short-er career players, there is not a comparable white player to him. But since I compare Moore to Jennings and have Moore just a couple of spots lower (and off the ballot), I could not see a justification to place Beckwith on the ballot and not Moore. Since Moore is not on, neither is Beckwith.
It very easily could have been Monroe, Beckwith, and Moore in some order behind Jennings. Everyone is very close.

PHoM: Sam Rice and George Sisler

1. Mickey Welch (2,2,6) PHoM 1929

Very deserving and "long-suffering". Has hung around a long time without ever getting close. Now he is close.

2. Jake Beckley (3,3,4) PHoM 1913

Peak-only voters baffle me. :)

3. Sam Rice (new) PHoM 1940

The most compelling of the new candidates, unless I get convinced on Rogan (which if he gets elected, I won't get a chance to do. Oh well.)

4. Eppa Rixey (7,x,x) PHoM 1939

Will he follow the GVH path or will he get in? The numbers are there, but there doesn't seem to be any 'passionate' support.

5. Lip Pike (4,4,7) PHoM 1938

The definition of 'long-suffering'.

6. George Van Haltren (5,5,3) PHoM 1912

Most overlooked.

7. Tommy Leach (6,6,9) PHoM 1921

Second most overlooked? Maybe?

8. George Sisler (9,8,12) PHoM 1940

I had to be sold on him, but now I am.

9. Edd Roush (8,7,8)

Solid, but not spectacular, pick.

10. Joe Sewell (x,x,x)

I'm coming around on him.

11. Harry Hooper (12,12,12) PHoM 1931
12. Hugh Duffy (11,9,13) PHoM 1930

One is stable, the other moves around, but neither is really in the running.

13. Cupid Childs (x,14,x)

Back on the ballot after a second straight year where someone off my ballot was elected. (Though Faber would have made my ballot on time. Coveleski wouldn't have.)

14. Jimmy Ryan (10,10,10) PHoM 1914

His support is waning.

15. Bill Monroe (15,15,15)

I think I will rename #15 #billmonroe.

1940 ballot. Still a prime/peak emphasis, no timeline but balanced for era and position to some degree. Yet another major reconsideration due in part to PA numbers.

1. Hughie Jennings (1-1-1, PHoM 1927) Still the only eligible player whom we know was the best player on the planet at one time.

2. Lip Pike (4 last week-2-6, PHoM 1928) If we elect Pike, I promise I don't have any more pre-NL candidates in mind.

3. Joe Rogan (new, PHoM 1940) Comp is Bob Caruthers whom I supported. I understand some reticence, but I don't share it.

4. Tommy Bond (2-5-5, PHoM 1929) This is after I discount his value by 50 percent and give it to his fielders. Bond crammed a whole career into a few years, but it's still a whole and valuable career in a single-league environment.

5. George Sisler (3-3-7, PHoM 1938) Almost Joe Jackson for his peak, a lot better than Joe Jackson thereafter.

-----(big gap here, my personal HoF is a small hall and would perhaps not include anybody below this line; my PHoM of eventually some 220 players does of course include many below this line)

(5a. Zack Wheat, PHoM 1940)

6. Edd Roush (x) Reconsidered. Similar to Max Carey who is in my PHoM. Not as good as Heinie Groh, however.

7. Jim McCormick (not on my ballot since 1931) Reconsidered, partly because of PA and partly because others such as Waddell, Redding and Mendez are moving down, and I need some pitchers on this ballot. Like Bond, this is after discounting by 50 percent and giving that to the fielders. One-league environment.

8. Joe Sewell (13) A worthy HoMer someday but more of a backlog type of player.

9. Charley Jones (5-7-8, PHoM 1921)
10. Rube Waddell (6-8-x, PHoM 1932) My backlog of PHoM not HoMers, though there are more (9 and growing).

11. Larry Doyle (not only my ballot since 1933) The deadball NL was not "that" bad.

12. Ed Williamson (7-14-13, PHoM 1924) More backlog.

13. Bill Monroe (also not on my ballot since 1933) I guess I realized we are being too hard on IF, especially IF backlog.

14. Dobie Moore (14-x-x) Huge peak and played elite ball for 14, not 7, years.

15. John Beckwith (new) Can see being cautious with him, but worthy of consideration.

Dropped out: Mendez (9), Childs (10), Redding (11), Bancroft (15). Mendez and Redding dropped after comparing them to Luque (a little better, but Luque is only about the 10th best pitcher available). Shifted IF around.

Close (16-20). Bancroft, Browning, Van Haltren (moves up), Rixey, Hack Wilson (new).
21-25. Griffith, Leach, Duffy, Willis, Redding.
26-30. Ryan, Welch, Mendez, Beckley, Childs.

Required: Beckley--reconsidered in light of PA, he moved up from around 40th to around 30th.

...one thing you can say is that he'll never lose the game for you in the first inning. Pitchers always can. I think one thing "replacement level" misses for pitchers is "implosion rate." Great pitchers often will not implode for at least nine innings.

Good thing you said "often". Anyone can let you down. I went chasing through retrosheet game log for a game I remember: June 29, 1967. Retrosheet doesn't have the box score for it, but the 12 runs the Cardinals allowed was the 2nd most the team allowed all year - and Bob Gibson, as the starting pitcher, didn't get out of the first inning, being charged with 9 of the runs in an 11-run inning.

(The most runs the Cardinals allowed that year? 17, in a game that Carlton started.)

1. Joe Sewell - We dont really need more shortstops currently but the best player is the best player.
2. Harry Hooper - Best career numbers on the ballot.
3. Lave Cross - Good career numbers, does well on the new PA numbers, would do even better on a WARP PA. Third basemen are still underrepresented. Plus he was a catcher for a good bit. This is my
personal quizotic adventure, come along for the ride if you want, but I will happilty tilt at this windmill all by myself.
4. Fielder Jones - The best of the CF glut.
5. Bobby Veach - Like shortstops we dont need more left fielders, but you gotta rank where they fall.
6. Joe Rogan - Possibly underranked, but he doesnt clearly go to the top of my ballot like some previous Negro Leaguers.
7. Jake Beckley - all career.
8. Del Pratt - new warp and new analysis and he leaps back onto my ballot. I guess I was right the first time around.
9. Wally Schang - Best catcher on ballot, last of my personal should be in group.
10. Tommy Leach - CF glut.
11. Rube Waddell - some think we have too few pitchers, I think we have a few too many. That makes it hard for a just very good pitcher to move
up my ballot.
12. Sam Rice - Look an outfielder without a peak.
13. Cupid Childs - Moves way down my ballot, still like him, but just dont think he is quite worthy. At least right now.
14. Eppa Rixey - see Waddell, Rube. Hall of Very Good.
15. Rabbit Maranville - I like glove men. Maz and Ozzie will get bigger support from me than they do from the average. Maranville's bat just wasnt there to push him higher.

20. Lip Pike - as high as he has been on my ballot in a long time. If we hit some weak patches ahead, he could make the ballot even.
21. Clark Griffith - Like Waddell and Rixey, only not as good.
22. Hughie Jennings - all peak, some better SS options around now.
26. George Sisler - Same as for Hughie. Huge peak not enough.

Genuine apologies go out to Bresnahan and Schang who seem about as well qualified as Charlie Bennett and might make the ballot eventually on that basis.

This is only correct IF you truly believe that Lady Baldwin was really a 53 Win Share pitcher in 1886. If you think that Win Shares gets 1880's pitching wrong, then all those Win Shares that mistakenly went to the pitcher get re-allocated to the fielders, primarily the "gloves" (C, SS, 3B, 2B). Pennants-Added severely underrates 1880's glovemen such as Ewing, Bennett, Dunlap, Williamson, Glasscock, and Ward. (There's more discussion of this on the PA thread.)

Debs Garms is tearing it up for the Pirates this season--he'll go far! And I'm still smiling about Rapid Robert's Opening Day no-hitter, and Jimmie Foxx's 500th homer.

1940 Ballot.
My PHOM inductees are Wilber Rogan and Burleigh Grimes.

1. Wilber Rogan (ne) Great all-around player. Merits induction. (1940)
2. Mickey Welch (1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,7,6,5,3,1,1) Don't think he was dominant? He won 17 games in a row in 1885, and racked up 238 gray ink points. (1926)
3. Jake Beckley (6,3,5,4,4,3,3,4,8,5,4,2,2,2) 802 career extra base hits. (1927)
4. Ben Taylor (11,8,8,6,4,3) Very similar to Beckley and the newly enshrined Max Carey. (1938)
5. Burleigh Grimes (ne) Gets the nod ahead of Rixey because of his fielding and hitting. (1940)
6. Carl Mays (9,10,9,7,5) A longer career than Stan Coveleski, plus he was a much better hitter. (1939)
7. Eppa Rixey (6) Put together many great seasons on some lousy teams. (1939)
8. Tommy Leach (9,7,5,7) Played two tough positions well, and lasted 19 years.
9. Jim McCormick (15,nr,13,15,nr,15,12,11,9,8) Not quite as good as Welch, but still deserves consideration.
10. Vic Willis (13,12,10,9) Nearly indistinguishable from McCormick.
11. Rabbit Maranville (10) A great glove and a durable body.
12. Edd Roush (8,6,11) Another solid career, with a solid bat.
13. Jack Quinn (13) Didn't have the production of Faber or Rixey, but still a very good pitcher.
14. Jose Mendez (4,8,13,13,11,10,8,14) Arguably better than Rube Foster. (1932)
15. Dick Redding (13,11,15) Right there with Mendez--I wish I had another slot for Nip Winters.

Obligatoires:
Clark Griffith & Lip Pike have both been on my ballot in the past, but I don't think either was better than the 15 names on my ballot. Griffith is the closest to making my ballot.

Joe Sewell, George Sisler, Rube Waddell, and Hughie Jennings all suffer from having short careers that their peaks aren't enough to overcome.

OCF wrote
Rabbit Maranville - I like glove men. Maz and Ozzie will get bigger support from me than they do from the average. Maranville's bat just wasnt there to push him higher.

So where's Ray Schalk?

Almost identical to my prelim

1. Mickey Welch (1) - These recent ballots have hurt his #1 and #2 ranking I've been keeping him at. It's great to see him make his way back to his rightful spot of #1 :)

2. Bullet Joe Rogan (n/a) - I originally thought he was a no brainer for #1, but I've decided to move him down to #2. I still have no doubt that he belongs in the HOM, just don't feel that he should get ranked above Welch on my ballot.

3. Eppa Rixey (4) - Close call between him and Faber

4. Burleigh Grimes (n/a) - Tough debate over whether I'd have him or Rice at #4.

5. Sam Rice (n/a) - This is the type of consistency that I love

6. George Sisler (3) - This is going to be an unpopular vote I know, but his peak was great, and there's enough career for me put him this high. What George has really done, is convinced me to move Beckley up on my ballot again.

7. Clark Griffith (5) - Same old story for Clark

8. Jake Beckley (6) - Not far off from Sisler.

9. Rube Waddell (7) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

10. Wally Schang (8) - Lots of career value for a catcher

11. Joe Sewell (9) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out

-----------------------My PHOM line-----------------------------------------

12. Lip Pike (10) - I bump him ahead of a couple others this year as I am convinced he was a bigger stud than I was willing to let myself believe. I can see him finally getting in one of these days.

13. George Van Haltren (11) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

14. Jose Mendez (12) - I haven't been able to convince myself that he deserves a spot higher than this.

15. Roger Bresnahan (14) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.

16. Herb Pennock (n/a) - If he'd only put up some good seasons before he was 25 he would've had a shot at my PHOM. He'll never make my PHOM, and I doubt he'll ever come close to making the HOM, but he's good enough to scratch in just ahead of Mays.

17. Carl Mays (15) - People may laugh that he made my ballot, but Carl could pitch. With Sisler and Welch so high, I already have two unpopular votes, so what's one more for them to laugh at?

18. Hughie Jennings (16) - Nothing new to add

19. Edd Roush (17) - Not quite as good as Max Carey

20. Dobie Moore (18) - I believe Dobie was great, there just isn't room for him higher than this yet. I'm sure he'll move onto the actual ballot soon enough.

21. Rabbit Maranville (19) - Only this high b/c he was a SS. No peak, and not even a good enough career value for me, and I'm a big career voter.

22. Vic Willis (20) - I'm beginning to think that I've highly underrated him. He'll probably be moving up my ballot next "year"

23. Eddie Cicotte (21) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM material, but underrated nonetheless.

24. Bobby Veach (22) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher ranking on my ballot, but enough peak to grab a lower spot.

25. Jimmy Ryan (23) - A watered down Van Haltren

26. Urban Shocker (24) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular, but a respectable career.

27. Hugh Duffy (25) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him

28. Harry Hooper (26) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.

29. Dick Redding (27) - I much more impressed with Mendez

30. Ray Schalk (28)
31. Cupid Childs (29)
32. Tommy Leach (30)
33. Pete Browning
34. Larry Doyle
35. Fielder Jones
36. Ben Taylor
37. Gavvy Cravath
38. Addie Joss
39. Tommy Bond
40. Joe Judge

Luque would be about 45
Uhle would be near 50
Wilson would be extremely low

"Pennants-Added severely underrates 1880's glovemen such as Ewing, Bennett, Dunlap, Williamson, Glasscock, and Ward. (There's more discussion of this on the PA thread.)"

That's one of the reasons I listed players by position Jim. At least within each era they'll be ranked accordingly.

Baldwin had a pretty good year in 1886 . . . adjusting for replacement level (6.5/WS per 220 IP) would at least drop him to 39 WSaR . . . But he did make 56 starts, completing 55 with a 147 ERA+ :-)

I am looking at possibly bumping up replacement level in the PA calc, maybe from 6.5 to 8 WS per season.

Oh, and one other thing on Baldwin - it wasn't 1871 or anything, he struck out 323 in his 487 IP . . .

yest - that was robc you were quoting and responding to, not me. But you and EricC (the other FORC) have a ways to go to persuade the rest of us to look at Schalk.

Yest - Ray Schalk the best catcher ever? Please say you mean defensively only, right?

I can't see any way to put Schalk ahead of Schang or Bresnahan. Even if one would have Schalk and Schang even on peak, Schang is miles ahead on career value.

So where's Ray Schalk?

#19.

The arrival of Sam Rice and Hack Wilson have caused me to re-examine my whole approach to balancing peak and career. I’ve tried to improve my consistency, and this has ramifications for the whole ballot.

1940 Ballot
1) Wilber Joseph "Bullet Joe" Rogan – “Bullet Joe”
On a ballot that does not thrill me overall, Rogan’s exceptional skill on the mound and at bat stands out.
2) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
He seems like he should be all peak, but he’s still a right-decent ballplayer when you look at his non-prime years. I like the balance.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I didn’t realize how much black and gray ink he racked up. And in a fairly durable career, as well.
4) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
5) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too.
6) Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. This placement is cautiously low.
7) Hugh Duffy
It’s hard to believe that he once ranked as high as 5th in the voting. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.
8) Carl William Mays
After Burleigh, there’s a real mollybang of great-but-not-outstanding pitchers. Carl is still benefiting by favorable analyses from James Vail and Bill James, as well as an enviable peak. Not a lot of love for Carl, though. And I gather that’s never been Carl’s strong suit.
9) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
My numbers like him better than Childs. I thought that was due to career length, but they have a similar peak, and Doyle has a slightly higher prime. So I’ll stick with Larry.
10) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
Finally found an article explaining how he moved to the infield after a serious injury. That’s helpful. His case is definitely based on career, as there are no real peaks or valleys, regardless of the injury.
11) Edd J Roush
Nice all-around numbers, and several MVP-type seasons. He’s not flashy, but I think he deserves a little more credit than he’s getting. And by putting him down here, I’m clearly not helping. Oh, and I know now not to put the period after the J. My bad.
12) Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
His projected numbers seem to put him squarely in the middle of a pitcher glut. He moves up due to the shifting ballot.
13) George Edward Waddell – “Rube”
I’ve always been wary of his tremendous peak and his reliance on strikeouts. But the strikeout is a pitcher’s most potent weapon in getting outs, so who am I to complain about that? The fact is, his peak / career balance is the best of the really peak-oriented players in my consideration set.
14) Harry Bartholomew Hooper
He looks similar to Rice, but doesn’t measure up nearly as well in the final numbers. Still has some impressive WS and WARP numbers.
15) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
I had Roger Bresnahan in this slot until the very last moment. I just couldn’t justify snubbing Rixey’s better career simply to fulfill an imaginary quota for catchers. Rixey’s Win Shares carry the day.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Lipman Emanuel Pike
He fooled me, sticking around for another year. I have him behind Van Haltren and Ryan, and the whole cluster just isn’t quite there. But maybe this will be his year.
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Hughie has appeared on every ballot I’ve submitted until now, meaning he suffers the most in my ballot revamp. Hack Wilson has a similar career arc, with a better career, and he’s not here. Basically, the peak is outstanding, but not so much so that it overshadows the fact that the peak is the entire career. This may not bode well for Dizzy Dean, by the way.
Clark Calvin Griffith
He’s within striking distance of the ballot, but just not there. I’ve got pitchers with better careers, and pitchers with better primes. His is an interesting mix, but the overall picture is not outstanding one way or the other.

Yest - Ray Schalk the best catcher ever? Please say you mean defensively only, right?

That's what he means, Joe. I had the same post regarding yest's comments concerning Schalk a while back.

Looking at the 2002 BP where their fielding runs are explained (and realizing so much stuff has changed since then that who knows if it is close to what they are still using), they have Schalk as the 3rd best defensive catcher of all time behind Carter and Bench. Which means, as of 1940 Ray is the greatest defensive catcher ever.

Since Ive got it open, here are the tops at other positions - Currently eligible/HoMer (future guys ahead of them):

1B: Fred Tenney (Hernandez, O'Brien, Power)
2B: Bid McPhee (Maz)
SS: Joe Tinker (Oz)
3B: Jimmy Collins (Robinson, Schmidt, Wallach, Boyer, Bell)
OF: Tris Speaker (Mays)

The OF top 10 list is really a CF list.

"Pennants-Added severely underrates 1880's glovemen such as Ewing, Bennett, Dunlap, Williamson, Glasscock, and Ward. (There's more discussion of this on the PA thread.)"

I'm really not attacking Pennants Added here. The problem lies in the underlying Win Shares. It just doesn't get the pitching/fielding split done right. So 1880's pitchers get too many Shares, and the 1880's fielders lose Shares.

1940

1. Lip Pike (1)--Not quite as good in the NA as McVey, but better before; much better in the NA than Start, not as good before. Very underrated. I’ve never been able to understand the anti-1870s crowd. A pennant is a pennant. How one could rank, say, Sam Thompson ahead of Pike I have no idea. Played the infield, played the outfield. The greatest power/speed combination of his time. Great peak and a fairly long career for a 19th Century Outfielder. According to WARP3, the best player on his team in 1871, 1874, 1875, and 1876. .2 WARP3 behind the team leader in 1872, second on the team in 1877. One of the top 2-3 players on the pre-NA teams he played for in his early 20s. Faster than a horse. (1919)

2. Pete Browning (2)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Bullet Joe Rogan (-)--This is where Caruthers would be if he were still around, and he seems like a pretty good comp for Rogan to me. If anything, this underrates Bullet Joe.

5. Hughie Jennings (4)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

6. Cupid Childs (5)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

7. Clark Griffith (6)--About as close to Covaleski as can be.

8. Dick Redding (7)--Peak not quite long enough to put him ahead of these other second-tier HOM-probable pitchers. A good comp for Griffith i think.

9. Tommy Leach (9)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. . .

10. Larry Doyle (13)--Pennants Added inspired bump for Laughing Larry this week as he noses ahead of the lower-peaked infielders.

11. Joe Sewell (8)--Doesn’t drop so much as stand still while Leach and Doyle jump up.

12. Ed Williamson (12)--Don’t know that my opinion of any candidate has fluctuated more over the last 40 years.

13. Dave Bancroft (10)--Totally overlooked him last year. Not quite Sewell, but very close.

14. Roger Bresnahan (11)--Great rate stats, but he just didn’t play enough to generate the value of the higher ups on the ballot. Drops in between the middle infielders this year.

15. John Beckwith (-)--Putting him at the end of the infield glut. There really isn’t much difference between #10 and #15 on my ballot.

16. Jose Mendez (14)
17. Carl Mays (26)-- PA-inspired swap of Waddell for Mays and Rixey.
18. Eppa Rixey (28)
19. Hugh Duffy (16)
20. George Van Haltren (17)
21. Edd Roush (19)
22. Jimmy Ryan (20)
23. Jake Beckley (22)
24. George Sisler (23)
25. Bobby Veach (18)

Already Thursday and only 17 votes cast. With 2/3 of the electorate not yet heard from, it's far too early to be hazarding any guesses as to what will happen. What's everyone waiting for?

1940 Ballot:

1.Joe Rogan- My top 3 ranking for Negro League pitcher goes: Paige, Williams, Rogan… with nothing setting any far apart from the rest. All three were outstanding by all accounts. Rogan goes into my Hall with Faber this year.

2.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Bill James calls him “Perhaps the most over-rated player in baseball history,” yet still ranks him #24 all-time first baseman and one of the “just out of the top 100” players. Went in my HoM in 1938.

3. Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

4.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS5 = 145.

5.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3.

6.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

7.Burleigh Grimes- Conservative first-time ranking; can only go up. Super Ink scores: Black = 38, Gray = 213.

8.Hack Wilson- Great peak, doesn’t have the career longevity. Career OPS+ = 144, Black Ink = 31.

9.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

10.Eppa Rixey- Real nice career numbers; looks a little better than Willis to me.

11.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

12.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

13.Pete Browning- Put up some monster offensive numbers, led by the 162 OPS+. Not so long ago, he was ahead of the likes of Pearce and Caruthers in balloting.

14.Vic Willis- Peak/prime numbers favor Willis over Rixey. Career numbers favor Rixey. Again, I’m giving the edge to Eppa.

15.Clark Griffith- Just not quite Willis. Ultimately, it’s the Ink scores that make me favor Willis in this battle.


16-20: Sewell, Doyle, Pike (system revision helps him, but not quite enough… I have him down as the 7th best eligible CF right now), Childs, Redding.

Thanks!

Hack Wilson #21, Luque #43 (rises if Cuban credit), Grimes #47.

This year has an unusual number of careers worth a shout: Willie Kamm, Joe Judge, Riggs Stephenson, Herb Pennock, Sam Rice, Muddy Ruel, George Uhle, George Grantham, and Lefty O’Doul.

Wilson, Grimes, Rice, and Pennock look like members of the HoF, not HoM club.

1)Rogan--Whether or not he could have played both ways in the majors is an interesting question, but he only had the chance to play in the Negro Leagues, and he gets full credit for what he accomplished there. Easy #1 choice.
2)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
3)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. Stands out from the extreme lack of catching candidates recently.
4)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
5)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be as high as #2. I might regret this, but he makes my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
6)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production.
7)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
8)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
9)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
10)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
11)Bancroft--Adjusted him up…
12)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so he’s not quite as impressive as I thought at first glance.
13)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.
14)Joss—Comp is Koufax…a terrible hitter.
15)Mendez--I rate him right below Joss.

Lip Pike-- Nothing to say that hasn’t already been repeated for 30 years.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Childs--Steep discount for his domination of the 1890 AA, otherwise he would be higher. Has been on my ballot several times, right now he’s just off the edge.

1940 Ballot. Knee deep in candidates, all sizes and shapes.

1. Joe Rogan (-). If you're ranked somewhere in the 5-10 range alltime among NeL pitchers, plus you hit well enough to be a regular player otherwise, leads me to believe we're talking the real deal here. Caruthers would be top 5 on the ballot if he were still around and I feel Rogan is slightly better.

2. Rube Waddell (1). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

3. Hughie Jennings (2). Peak-riffic. SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, albeit for a short stretch of time.

4. Jimmy Ryan (5). Let's see: good hitting CF, longish career, decent fielder. Yep, I like that combo.

5. Pete Browning (3). Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

6. John McGraw (9). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

7. Dick Redding (7). Just ahead of a couple of white counterparts on the mound.

8. Tommy Leach (16). My constant tweaking usually bubbles someone up onto ballot. Leach is the lucky guy this week. All around player - good hitter, good fielder.

9. Bobby Veach (6). Maybe penalized him too harshly in the past due to tough OF competition in his career. Having a hard time seeing Cobb, Heilmann, and Veach in together.

10. Eppa Rixey (14). Faber minus a little bit; Red wouldn't be elected by me yet so Rixey stays lower on the ballot.

11. Clark Griffith (11). Some tweaks to my pitcher rankings show him moving up amongst the populace. Is he HOM worthy is another question. Fills an era lacking a player or two in the HOM.

12. George Sisler (12). The seven-year peak should not be ignored. Average play after his return from injury just padded some statlines. Star college player who was highly sought after by many teams.

13. Edd Roush (5). Adjusted placing, rethought the holdout years and Federal League play.

14. John Beckwith (-). When you hit like that, you take a lot of the other extra crap that comes with a player.

15. Jake Beckley (10). Sisler and Beckley have differing career paths but come out similarly in my metrics. Guess they should be close when ranking as well.

Wanting a shot:

16-20: Childs, Griffin, Van Haltren, Poles, Mullane
21-25: Duffy, Willis, Bresnahan, Sewell, Doyle
26-30: Mays, Welch, Schang, Mendez, H Wilson
31-35: Pike, Moore, Tiernan, Taylor, Dunlap
36-40: Shocker, F Jones, C Jones, Grimes, Cravath

What about:

Pike: Don't much like his combination of hitting with not much fielding. Those 1870s still have some questions to me in terms of competitive balance and unbalanced schedules.

Van Haltren: At the gate but not into top 15. Has been there before.

Childs: Pushed out by newcomers. Will probably be back.

Sewell: Feel he's closer to Tinker, Bancroft, and others than elite elected SS.

Newbies - Sam Rice played a long time and was consistent. That gets you a gold watch, not a HOM plaque. Joe Judge was an interchangable 1Bmen. Grimes and Luque are close to one another - Dolf is probably in 40-50 range.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).


1) Bullet Joe Rogan (n/e): Amazing pitcher who could really hit. It's hard not to come to the conclusion that he was the best pitcher/hitter combination not named Ruth (and Ruth didn't do it anywhere near as long).

2) Lip Pike-CF/RF/2B (2): Considered the fastest man of his time. Major star prior to the NA. Two things hold him back somewhat: durability and how good of a player he was at his position compared to his competition pre-NA (Pearce is not affected as much by the latter in my analysis, obviously). Best major league rightfielder for 1871 and 1873. Best major league centerfielder for 1874-1876.

3) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (n/e): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. I have him pegged at his position(s) multiple times as the best for many seasons among white and black players.

4) Cupid Childs-2B (1): I've moved him down a few pegs, though I still feel he's a HoMer. Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

Cupid has the most seasons as the best player at his position who is not in the HoM and compares favorably in that regard with the majority of HoMers, IMO. I honestly don't think any other player that becomes eligible from this point on with as many seasons as the best at his position will have to wait anywhere nearly as long Childs has had to endure. That doesn't mean he belongs as high as I have him, but he should be hitting everyone's ballot somewhere. Please take another look at him.

5) Charley Jones-LF/CF (5): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

6) Vic Willis-P (6): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

7) Tom York-LF (7): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Carey or Roush?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than those two during their time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870s. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

8) Burleigh Grimes (n/e): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (8): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Mickey Welch-P (9): I have to admit that the 1880s had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

11) Rube Waddell-P (11): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

12)José Méndez-P (12): Looks a lot like Waddell quality-wise, so I'll place him right here. Very impressive player.

13) Eppa Rixey-P (13): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

14) Ed Konetchy-1B (14): Best first baseman of the Deadball Era, IMO. The uber-stat systems don't measure first base well, so Konetchy is hurt by that. Best major league first baseman for 1910, 1911 and 1916 (very close in 1909 and 1912). Best NL first baseman for 1909, 1912 and 1919.

15) George Van Haltren-CF/P (15): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

Seven pitchers on this ballot ties my record again. Hopefully we keep working on this glut.

Jennings, Griffith, and Sisler are admirable players who just miss in my system.

As for the newbies, Luque is extremely close. Rice's lack of a significant peak hurts him in my eyes, but wasn't he the consistent one for a long time! Not enough career for the Hackster, while Joe Judge, Herb Pennock and George Uhle were fine, but not remarkable players. I feel bad for leaving Willie Kamm off for some reason, but he just doesn't have the numbers to warrant a ballot spot.

Already Thursday and only 17 votes cast. With 2/3 of the electorate not yet heard from, it's far too early to be hazarding any guesses as to what will happen. What's everyone waiting for?

The lingering effects of tryptophan to subside ...

John (46) no. Ruth was the best pitter/hitcher combination not named Caruthers :-))

... or even hitter/pitcher!

John (46) no. Ruth was the best pitter/hitcher combination not named Caruthers :-))

It's hard to gauge that since they played different eras. Caruthers wouldn't have have as many chances on the mound, though that would have given him more chances in the OF. I'd be shocked if Caruthers was a better hitter or pitcher than Rogan, but at this time I can't say that positively. IOW, you may be right. :-)

I'll have a ballot in. When's the deadline?

As for Ruth and Caruthers, I have no doubt that the Bambino would have kicked Parisian Bob's butt if he had played during the 1880s. That's not a knock on Caruthers, but a tribute to the man nicknamed Babe.

...but I'll bet Parisian Bob would have fleeced Babe in the team poker game!

...but I'll bet Parisian Bob would have fleeced Babe in the team poker game!

Probably, since the Babe would have been distracted by hot dogs, booze and floozies. :-)

I'll have a ballot in. When's the deadline?

8 PM EST Monday, Buddah.

1) Joe Sewell: I reexamined his career and am far more impressed than I was before. Great fielder and a solid to great hitter for the position, especially at the time. Longer career than Jennings without the monstrous peak, but without really any valleys.

2) George Sisler: One of the most dominant hitters before his eye problems and still a top performer afterwards. Combined with his reputation for good defense, I think he belongs. Switched him behind Sewell because Sewell played SS and played it very well.

3) Rube Waddell: Dominating pitcher, love the K's and the ERA+. Poor Rube ain't never gonna make it.

4) Hughie Jennings: Great peak, great in the field, but no longevity. A couple more years and he's number one. If we figured in managing he'd be a lock.

5) Jake Beckley: Then anti-Hughie, no great peak but lots of longevity.

6) Clark Griffith: Long career of being really good.

7) Cupid Childs: Kinda long career of being really good.

8) Pete Browning: Really good, not great.

9) Mickey Welch: Ditto.

10) Hugh Duffy: Great hitting career during a great time to be a hitter.

11) Eddie Cicotte: Like him a lot but just can't get past 1919.

12) Gavy Cravath: Like the PCL and AA history.

13) Frank Chance: Good numbers and good defense at a time when first base defense was more important than it is now. Good leader by all accounts.

14) Dolph Luque: Just a hair above Rixey.

15) Eppa Rixey: Just a hair behind Luque.

1940 ballot
1) Lip Pike—I really thought he was going to make it last year. He stays at the top of my ballot for the 4th straight year. Joe Dimino’s Pennants Added revision supports Pike’s relative standing among OFs. 155 OPS+. Top 7 or better in OPS+ in 5 out of 7 documented seasons, top 10 in slugging all 7 years.
2) Bullet Joe Rogan—I’m not convinced he was a better pitcher than Redding (whom I rank higher than most), but his value as a two-way player puts him safely ahead of Cannonball.
3) Cannonball Dick Redding—2nd best NeL pitcher of the deadball era.
4)Joe Sewell—3rd in top 5 years in WARP3 (45.3) a hair behind Veach (45.7) and well below Jennings. Productivity outside of 5-year peak moves him past Jennings for #1 SS on the board (even though he played 5 years at 3B). I recognize that Win Shares is not as high on him as WARP3, but the disparity is not so great that it convinces me he doesn’t deserve this spot on my ballot.
5) Hughie Jennings — That peak is hard to resist—54.2/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons.
6) Pete Browning—162 OPS+, .305 EQA (all time), 30.81 WS/162G.
7) Ben Taylor—As I see it, one of the top 3 NeL 1st basemen of all time. He slipped off one more ballot last week. I hope the impressive stats of the lively ball era Negro Leaguers that are becoming eligible don’t overshadow him completely.
8) Fielder Jones— Seems like he gets passed over in a lot of the OF debate. 89.9 WARP3 is very close to Hooper & Carey, ahead of Roush, GVH and a host of others. A+ fielder like Hooper & Carey and significantly better WS/162 at 26.28 puts him ahead of those guys even though they played a bit longer. Does well in peak and career measures by both WARP3 and WS. Modest OPS+ of 111 masks competitive .282 EQA(all-time).
8) Rube Waddell—Stays ahead of the new crop of pitchers. 142 ERA+. 3.69 DERA. 236 PRAA. 442 PRAR/145WS in 5 best seasons. No other eligible pitcher has over 400 PRAA in their top 5 seasons (Cicotte is closest at 394, newly elected Faber had 395).
9) John Beckwith—I could see him winding up as the top 3B in my rankings for Negro Leaguers, though I admit I’ll have to look closer at Judy Johnson, Ray Dandridge, and Jud Wilson. Significant playing time at short convinces me that his fielding wasn’t so bad that it outweighs his slugging prowess.
10) Jose Mendez—Excellent NeL pitcher. Doesn’t get a ton of recognition in the expert rankings, but he was #34 out of SABR’s top forty NeL players, 9th pitcher overall.
11) Dobie Moore—Dobie falls out of the top 10 by a whisker thanks to Beckwith.
12) Charley Jones—OPS+ of 149. 29.17 WS/162g is second only to Browning among eligibles. Bump for missed years.
13) Bill Monroe—Top 2nd baseman on my ballot. I see him as slightly better than Childs.
14) Urban Shocker—Top three seasons were a bit below Cicotte’s, but career and 5-year peak totals of WS, WARP3, PRAA are very close or better the Ed’s. Significant edge in DERA (3.79 vs. 4.04) and WS/1000IP (84 vs. 77) for Shocker. It’s close but Shocker comes out ahead.
15) Ed Cicotte—His top three seasons were outstanding: 94 WS, 151 RSAA. Top 5 and career totals bring him back to the rest of the pack:
186/394 top 5 PRAA/PRAR, 124 top 5 WS. Willis is right on his heels.

Just off ballot (16-20):
16) Vic Willis—Top 3/5 PRAA seasons just behind Cicotte, comes out ahead in career PRAA by 2. Lower WS/1000IP and DERA keep him off the ballot (barely). His IP advantage shrinks quite a bit when you look at Translated IP.
17) Long Levi Meyerle—164 OPS+ in career that is 75% of Pike’s documented length. Top 8 or better in OPS+ 6 out of 7 seasons, 1st twice.
18) Addie Joss—31.51 WS/season is best for 20th Century eligibles. 1700 Translated IP is lowest by far of pitchers in my top 20. Good fielder (109 Rate), horrible batter (20 OPS+).
19) Eppa Rixey— Rixey has the career to come up neck and neck with Joss’s peak. They have almost exactly the same all-time RSAA for their careers (243 for ER, 240 AJ). C
20) Bobby Veach—2nd best 5-year peak of eligible players by WARP3.

Top 10 Left Off:
23) Clark Griffith—Deflation of his IP by Translated IP hurts him a bit. Better DERA keeps him ahead of Carl Mays. He’s stayed within shouting distance of my ballot for a while, but I doubt he’ll make it back on any time soon.
46) George Sisler—His peak years aren’t that much higher, at least top 5 in WARP3 (43.6), than a lot of the outfielders who played longer that I have above him.
73) Jake Beckley—He’s no Ben Taylor. I also don’t see a huge difference between him and Ed Konetchy.
31) Cupid Childs—I’ve settled on keeping him in the upper-middle of the OF glut. WARP3 and WS don’t help him out that much.
26) George Van Haltren—A very good player, I just don’t see him as standing out enough from the Hooper-Poles-Thomas-Leach-etc. crowd to justify enshrinement in the HoM.

New guys in top 100:
24) Dolph Luque—Tops among new pitchers. Rate stats similar to Rixey, but over 1000 fewer innings.
32) Alejandro Oms—Not quite as good as Poles, but I not too far behind either. One of the top Cuban players of all time. Impressive combo of speed and power. Would he be more renowned if he played more in the states?
35) Burleigh Grimes— OK pitcher for quite a while, but not outstanding enough to stand out from several others.
41) Sam Rice—Mr. Consistency. Never truly great, though. I’m not inclined to rate low-peak guys very highly.
50) Hack Wilson—Has anyone ever had a more appropriate nickname? 5 time league leader in strikeouts, 4 time leader in HRs. WS loves his peak, WARP3 is a bit more conservative. Both systems have him surprisingly close in value to Ross Youngs for both peak and career. I have Ross at 48 and, taking defense into account, I don’t think Hack deserves to be much higher or lower.
53) George Uhle & 54) Herb Pennock—Add two more guys to the list of decent pitchers who have no shot at the HoM.
78) Willie Kamm—Excellent fielding 3B, nice OBP…he slots between Larry Gardner and Billy Nash.

Reevaluated Negro Leaguers this week. Quite a few jumped up as a result.

PHOM
Bullet Joe Rogan
Heinie Groh

1940 Ballot
1.Charley Jones –Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
2.Bullet Joe Rogan – Slightly behind Jones after giving credit for Jones blacklist years. Elected PHOM in 1940
3.Lip Pike – 95% of documented career is above average. Fresh look at Charley Jones, Pike, and Browning made me change my order of them. Elected PHOM in 1918.
4.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
5.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
6.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1939
7.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey.
9.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense. Took another look at him and he moved up a couple of spots
10.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up.
11.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position..
12.George Sisler – Major jump up. I believe that WS undervalues his peak. Jumps up in my new evaluation.
13.Joe Sewell – Better offense than Bancroft, slightly less defense. Like him almost as much as Jennings.
14.Wally Schang – Took a closer look at Bresnahan and Schang. While Bresnahan was a better hitter, Schang played catcher more and was the top catcher of his time more often than Bresnahan was.
15.Jose Mendez – Slotted between Foster and Waddell. Took a closer look with Redding on the ballot. Like his peak over Redding’s career

New Candidates
Burleigh Grimes – Slightly more peak than Rixey, but I like Rixey’s consistency a little more. Also, his run support is pretty high.

John Beckwith – Very good hitter. May move up.

Hack Wilson – High peak, but low prime and career. A poor man’s Pete Browning.

Dolph Luque - Even with extra credit for Cuban League play, doesn't get near my ballot.

Sam Rice - A slightly better player than Harry Hooper (and I'm not a FOHH)

Herb Pennock and George Uhle - Nowhere near my ballot.

Required Explanations
Clark Griffith – Falls in reevaluation of pitchers I did last week.

Rube Waddell –Impressive SO ability, but his record should be SO much better than it actually is.

Jake Beckley- Lower peak than Van Haltren, in my top 50, but just barely.

16-20 Leach, Roush, Grimes, Redding, McGraw
21-25 Williamson, Beckwith, Taylor, Cooper, Mays
26-30 Poles, Tiernan, Bresnahan, Griffith, GVH
31-35 Doyle, Bancroft, Bond, Waddell, Chance
36-40 Griffin, F. Jones, McCormick, Wilson, Long
41-45 Welch, R. Thomas, Burns, Konetchy, Beckley
46-50 Cravath, Fournier, Mullane, Tinker, Schalk
51-55 Evers, Maranville, Veach, Luque, Ryan
56-60 Winters, Dunlap, Joss, Rice, Hooper

Thane...you've got two guys listed at #8.

1 (1)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

2 (4)Joe Sewell--The first 4 here are razor-thin close. Any one of them could easily be #1 this year in my mind. Pretty large gap between 4 and 5.

3 (6)Donie Bush--Gets extra points for being a top-notch leadoff type.

4 (2)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

5 (5)Bobby Veach--One of the biggest beneficiaries of the new, new WARP.

6 (-)Bullet Joe Rogan--Probably a worst case scenario here, but I prefer to be conservative on the new Negro League entries.

7 (8)Del Pratt--Compared to the Rice/Hooper glut below, Pratt has better peak + prime, and has 85-90% of the career at a "rarer" position. That seems more meritorious to me.

8 (9)George J Burns--Burns is rising to the top of the OF glut based on a better peak.

9 (10)Tommy Leach--With Veach, another big boost from new, new WARP.

10 (11)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

11 (12)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

12 (13)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

13 (-)Sam Rice--Can't hardly separate between Rice and Hooper...

14 (14)Harry Hooper--...Great careers for both of them.

15 (-)Duke Farrell--Catchers are by far the most underrepresented position right now, and Farrell makes it on as a result.

Dropping out: Hugh Duffy

Top 10 freeze-outs: Hughie Jennings is literally 16th on my ballot. He could conceivably be back.
Lip Pike presents too many timeline/quality of competition issues for me to rank him favorably against this crowd.
Clark Griffith has the same number of career WARP2 points as Eddie Cicotte, but is not all that near the same peak. I don't see the point.
Beckley and Rixey are in the same boat: No peak to speak of, coupled with a ridiculously long career. I can't see either ever making my ballot.

Two unsolicited comments:
1) Regarding pennants added: If I'm a GM, and am offered the choice between one season at 50% chance of a pennant and the second season at 0% chance, and two seasons at 26% chance of a pennant each; I'm taking the 50/0% version every time. I think one reason the pennants added ring dubious is that they don't intuitively follow an additive nature. I apologize if this is a repeat of a comment on the pennants added thread.

2) Regarding first basemen: I don't consider 1st basemen to be underrepresented right now, because there are several HoMers that actually did play 1st base, but aren't primarily considered 1st basemen. Heilmann, Ewing, Kelley, Hines, Lajoie, McVey, Delahantey, Spalding, and O'Rourke all played at least 10% of their games at 1st.

# Posted by Dolf Lucky on December 03, 2004 at 02:30 PM (#994210)
1 (1)Rube Waddell

Aw, c'mon! So far, I'm one of only two people with Luque on my ballot. I was sure I could at LEAST count on this ballot for number three!

My #4 and #5 were elected. New exhibit for Grimes. Older exhibits suppressed. In 1940 it’ll again take some serious study to sort out the top of the ballot; Grimes leads another gob of glut that also includes Rice and Luque, although Joe Rogan may top them all. In 1941 it’s the Ruth-Hornsby ticket in a landslide over Vance-Traynor. Then 1942 will be the last year for a long while that any of the backlog has a chance; Terry heads the newbies, while Marberry should spark our first earnest discussion re the value of closers.

1)Lip Pike (1,1,3) – His 43rd year on my ballot, stays at #1. If the HoM is about respect for all eras, then Pike is a “n-b”. IMO, his era is very underrepresented and he seems unchallenged as the best remaining candidate. Number of HoMers playing regularly during his career:
1866: 2 (Pearce, Start)
1867: 3 (the above 2 plus Wright)
1868: 5 (above 3, Barnes, Spalding)
1869: 7 (above 5, White, McVey)
1870: 8 (above 7, Sutton)
1871: 9 (above 8, Anson)
1872: 10 (above 9, O’Rourke)
1873: 11 (above 10, Hines)
1874: 11
1875: 11
1876: 10 (Pearce token)
1877: 9 (Barnes injured)
1878: 11 (Start, Wright, White, McVey, Sutton, Anson, O’Rourke, Hines, Bennett, Kelly, Ward)

In 1879 it explodes to 16; in 1881 it hits 20 and stays at 18+ until the late teens.

The rest of these guys wouldn’t be bad HoMers, but I can’t justify ranking any of them above Pike, above my personal “Clearly deserving” line.

2)George Van Haltren (2,2,4)—New Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 32nd year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan actually played more corner outfield.

3)Clark Griffith (3,3,5) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Could hit a little, too.

4)Tommy Leach (6,6,8) – With 3B lagging in HoMers, you’d think he’d get more attention. Longevity, defense and speed rate him above Groh. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke).

5) Jimmy Ryan (7,7,9)—Played with St. Paul in Western Lg in 1901.

6)Edd Roush (9,10,12) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Most hits 1917-27:
1—2119 R. Hornsby
2—2040 G. Sisler
3—1992 H. Heilmann
4—1973 S. Rice
5—1939 T. Cobb
6—1925 T. Speaker
7—1777 E. Roush
8—1746 Z. Wheat
9—1742 E. Collins
10—1678 M. Carey

7)George Sisler (8,8,10) – Jake or George. I think Sisler is still among the top 220 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley, so he stays low on my ballot. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 990+ RBI through 1930:

1—2076 C. Anson
2—1575 J. Beckley
3—1322 R. Connor
4—1296 D. Brouthers
5—1175 G. Sisler
6—1060 S. McInnis
7—998 G. Kelly
8—996 W. Pipp
9—992 E. Konetchy

8)Joe Rogan – Similarity to Caruthers (whom I supported little), plus uncertainty, plus conservative approach to newbies lands him smack in the middle of the ballot.

9)Wally Schang (10,11,13) – A bit more sure about this ranking. Catcher bonus puts him here for now. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

10)Roger Bresnahan (11,12,14) – Catcher is the most poorly represented position in the HOM, a condition that may prove to be chronic. Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3900 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

11)Hughie Jennings (12,14,--) – I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis
5—6.37 H. Long
6—6.18 M. Cross
7—6.10 T. Corcoran
8—6.05 B. Ely

12)Eppa Rixey (13,ne,ne) – Looks like the Beckley of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Could move up.

13)Burleigh Grimes – More a workhorse but less longevity then Rixey. Similar peaks. Most wins 1916-29:

1—246 P. Alexander
2—224 B. Grimes
3—213 S. Coveleski
4—211 W. Johnson
5—210 E. Rixey
6—201 C. Mays
7—197 R. Faber
8—187 U. Shocker
9—187 W. Cooper
10-183 H. Pennock

14)Harry Hooper (14,13,15) – Hard to see why Beckley shows up on so many more ballots. Per adjusted win shares, his peak was better than Beckley’s. I see him at 34.5 for the abbreviated 1918 season. His 27.4 in 1916 is also better than Jake’s best, 26.6 in 1890. A couple bulk seasons at the end of his career in a weak NL give Beckley 28 more career AWS.

15)Jake Beckley (15,15,--) – He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples are a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh; his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Hit only 34 of 86 career homes at home. Beckley's RBI total is still the 8th best all-time among firstbasemen. Besides Anson (#1 all-time) there's Gehrig, Foxx, Murray, Palmeiro, Perez and Killebrew ahead of Beckley. McCovey and McGriff round out the top ten. Bagwell and Thomas figure to join this group next season.

Joe Sewell – A few spots off the ballot. Perhaps the best shortstop during a down time at the position. I easily prefer Jennings. Maybe Lundy, too. The next generation of shortstops blows him away (Cronin, Wells, Vaughan, Appling). Only 13 years as a regular, 8 at SS (1 more year than Jennings). OPS+ of 120 in just one season.

Rube Waddell – Just another of the old pitcher glut that includes Welch, Willis and McCormick. Often brilliant but unreliable. Had only two seasons as a regular with a Win % of .600+. His career seems to contain contradictions, mainly a won-loss record out of sync with his ERA. Perhaps he was a notorious hot/cold pitcher, getting raked over the coals after a couple shutouts. Can anyone do a study on this--is his standard deviation for RA higher than others? May deserve some credit for minor league performance.

Still only 25 ballots. (I'm not counting Thane of Bagarth's ballot until he fixes it. I suppose in the worst case, we could try to guess what he really meant, but we'd all prefer not to do that.) That's less than half of the electorate. I'm willing to guess who one of the candidates elected will be, but not both.

1. Hughie Jennings (1, PHOM 1938)- Great peak, even better when you adjust for shortened schedule and teh fact that middle infielders in the 1890's got beat to all hell

2. Cupid Childs (2, PHOM 1939)- Gets a big boost because he was the NL's best 2B for so many years.

3. Bullet Joe Rogan (x, PHOM)- Probably should be higher but karlmagnus' worries about whether or not he could have been as good a pitcher/hitter (instead of one or the other) in the Majors keeps him just below an elect me spot.

3a. Red Faber (PHOM)
4. Lip Pike (5)- The more I look at him the more I like him, semes to have been a monster at the plate. May be elected this year.

5. Eppa Rixey (4)- According to BP's Translated stats Rixey has the most wins and innings pitched of any other pitcher in the electorate. In other words, he is the best career pitching candidate out there right now.

6. Tommy Leach (6)- Nice long career with a servicable peak, may be best blend of peak and career on the ballot.

7. Dick Redding (7)- On the line of HOMer or not.

8. Hugh Duffy (8)- Moves up a few more spots. As I made schedule length adjustments 1890's players benefit.

9. Rube Waddell (9)- No one on the ballot towers over any stat like Rube and K/9.

9a. Max Carey
10. George Sisler (8)- falls back down a little as I realize that I may have gotten carried away. nice peak, but his peak wasn't as good as that of Jennings, or even Wilson.

11. Clark Griffith (15)- I re did my pither tankings and Griffith was the big winner, only he, Waddell, Joss, Shocker, and of all people Rommel have DERA's lower than 4.

12. Jose Mendez (12)- much like Waddell, only he has a lower ERA+

13. Pete Browning (14) - When you adjust his schedule to 154 games he looks like a monster, great hitter.

14. Bobby Veach (13)- His WS numbewrs dont' warrant his being here, but he has great WARP numbers. Nice long peak.

15. Dobie Moore (20)- I fianlly got around to looking at his WS and his peak is truly owrthy of the HOM, however his lack of career is kinda self inflicted. The latter end of it is anyway.

16-20 Beckwith, GVH, Bresnahan, Roush, Monroe
21-25 Doyle, Wilson, R. Thomas, Sheckard, Chance
26-30 F. Jones, Shocker, Sewell, Ryan, Burns
31-35 Schang, Joss, Evers, Grimes, Luque
36-40 Rice, Konetchy, Cicotte, Welch, Beckley
41-45 Mays, Tinker, Seymour, Bancroft, Poles
46-50 Schalk, Long, Tiernan, Rommel, Petway

Required Disclosures
17. George Van Haltren - I really wish he was on my ballot, but I can't vote for 19 guys.

39. Mickey Welch - Didn't strike out too many people, walked a lot of people, wasn't too good at run prevention, and it seems to me his W and IP were solely a function of his era. 39 may be too high.

40. Jake Beckley - No peak, and his prime comes out under that of Sam Rice.

Newbies

16. Beckwith - Close, very close, but in the end I just like Moore's peak better. I also wonder what position he would have played in MLB, but that is mostly conjecture.

22. Hack Wilson - By WS, his peak and prime are very similar to Jennings. Except that WS seems to overrated OFers in comparison to SS's, Jennings played a shorter schedule, AND 1890's middle infielders got beat to all hell. Wilson just misses out.

34. Burliegh Grimes
35. Dolf Luque
Grimes has himself a nice long career, but he doesnt' seem to stack up to Rixey all that well. Luque looks awful par BP, but I still like him enough to put him in my top 50.

36. Rice - The new Beckley?

Judge, Kamm, Malarcher, McManus, Grantham all made my consideration set (roughly top 10 per position, give or take a few) but won't ever make my ballot.

Thane...you've got two guys listed at #8.

Ahh, krunk...sorry 'bout that. Everybody from the first #8 moves down and Cicotte falls off the ballot:

1940 ballot
1) Lip Pike
2) Bullet Joe Rogan
3) Cannonball Dick Redding
4) Joe Sewell
5) Hughie Jennings
6) Pete Browning
7) Ben Taylor
8) Fielder Jones
9) Rube Waddell
10) John Beckwith
11) Jose Mendez
12) Dobie Moore
13) Charley Jones
14) Bill Monroe
15) Urban Shocker

Thane, Eddie KNOWS Mr. Rothstein made you do that :-))

Thane, that would have been my guess as to what you meant - but it's good to see you confirm it.

1940 ballot, which is our 43rd.
Extremely important to elect the 'right' guys this year, not that we'll ever empirically know for sure. Last two-pronged open slot year for decades, it appears. A daunting task, for sure......


1. CLARK GRIFFITH - Second straight time at the top of the mountain for me. His era clearly is underrepresented on the hill AND it was a time of rough competition, a double bonus which wins it for him. It's remarkable how much better his W-L was than the teams he pitched for. I think he was a brilliant strategist long before he became a manager, and it showed in his pitching.
2. BULLET JOE ROGAN - I would seriously prefer that he not get elected this time, because we need two more weeks, or a lot more, to mull him. That said, in my mind I can't put anyone else fairly ahead of him, so I reluctantly give him the bonus points.

3. LIP PIKE - Bumps up this week with another look at those sweet OPS+s. A superstar hitter, and his uniqueness on the ballot is a hint of his relative greatness, I think. The Dick Allen comparisons seem apt, but maybe he's better. I hope we make an ultimate yay or nay decision fairly soon.
4. MICKEY WELCH - Hanging in, but drops a couple of slots this week. If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
5. HUGHIE JENNINGS - Here on the theory that a four-year megastar is better than entire careers of most of these balloteers. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
6. GEORGE SISLER - I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while also providing a significant added portion of a career as well. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
7. EPPA RIXEY - Might have climbed all the way to the top if only he had that one mega-year. But a very nice long career slots him here.
8. DICK REDDING - Yes, third straight P and fifth of the top 9. Definitely should be on more ballots, although the pitching ool is now remarkably deep.
9. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
10. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
11. SAM RICE - I'll assume he goes arm-in-arm on a lot of ballots or off with Beckley. Top 10 in BA eight times - BUT seven of those were 8th, 9th, or 10th. A bit Baines-like, and this group probably doesn't love Baines, either. Yet like Beckley, he should pile up some votes each year because the durability is impressive and had real value.
12. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Not quite Faber, and thus not quite Rixey, either. Sort of Beckley and Rice-like, isn't he?
13. CUPID CHILDS - Still hanging onto my ballot, as his positional competition still can't compete. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. But I can't say I'm sure he belongs.
14. PETE BROWNING - Yes, an early version of Hack Wilson. Seriously considered Hack, but like Browning a little more. But a tough call. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Has been discounted too much for AA numbers, and I'm not a big AA fan at all.
15. JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them. But status as best SS most years earns him a place on the ballot.


OMISSIONS
DOBIE MOORE - Hey, with Jennings and Sisler on my list, I wish I could include Moore, too. Meteors don't last as long as stars, but they shine brighter while they're around.
VIC WILLIS - Nearly got first vote ever from me last year, but here come another truckload of pitchers. Tracks very closely with our other top pitchers; needed one more quality season to get big points, probably not a HOMer.
JOSE MENDEZ - Outside chance he had enough peak to be a legit HOMer, but part of me suspects he didn't quite do it for long enough. Still worth strong consideration, but I'm already pitcher-heavy this year.
RUBE WADDELL - Not a HOMer; the 'anti-Welch' was Mark Fidrych with a longer but not-long-enough career. Strikeouts are an indicator of ability, not production.
Dolf Luque, Herb Pennock, George Uhle, and holdover Carl Mays have not yet been bounced from consideration. I'm just struggling with so many frigging pitchers.
John Beckwith? A short career and bad fielding doesn't quite do it. A great player for a time and glad to see him get his deserved props, but not sure he'd ever make my ballot...

My 1940 ballot (another dilly of a dally):

1. Joe Rogan -- great negro league hurler
2. Eppa Rixey -- someone had to be #2
3. Edd Roush -- very good CF
4. George Sisler -- a borderline HOM'er
5. Jake Beckley -- lots of career value
6. Joe Sewell -- a very good SS for many years
7. Hack Wilson -- if anything, I have him too low
8. Larry Doyle -- very good hitting second sacker
9. Rabbit Maranville -- remarkable career
10. Rube Waddell - great K's
11. Addie Joss -- great whip
12. Lip Pike -- great early star
13. Cupid Childs -- someone else we overlooked
14. Tommy Leach -- very good player at 2 positions
15. Harry Hooper -- not a bad HOF'er

The bottom half of my ballot is virtually indistinguishable from group top 10'ers including Hughie Jennings (not enuf career), Clark Griffith (not enuf quality), and George Van Haltren (I slightly prefer Hooper, Charley Jones, and Jimmy Ryan).

1940 Ballot

1. (new) Bullet Rogan. While I want to be as conservative as possible in rating newly eligible players, here you have a player who pitched like Satchel Paige and sometimes batted clean-up. A clear HoMer in my book.

2. (1) Geo. Van Haltren. VH has been in a slump since hitting third place in 1932, but he does well on every method I can put together that combines peak and career—something also reflected in Pennants Added 2.0. His 12 (284) and 15 (335) year unadjusted WS totals are better than any other eligible position player as is his 13 seasons with 20+ WS, and this in an era with a lot of 132 or so game seasons. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him some credit. All in all, over 400 career WS and 28 WS per season if you adjust his career to 162 game seasons.

3. (2) Clark Griffith. 4th best pitcher of the 1890’s and has a better adjusted ERA (121) and WS/WARP per season than the 4000 innings guys, and a Waddell-esque peak (1894-1901) .620 winning pct. with 237 wins.

4. (3) Lip Pike. Dominant slugger for the 2000 ABs we can document. 155 OPS+, 7 times top 10 in slugging pct. Played almost every position in the field. I wish there was more hard evidence to go on, but what can you do?

5. (4) Larry Doyle. Hit like an outfielder, but had the misfortune to play in a very low offensive era. Higher career OPS+ (126) than 10 of the 15 second basemen in the Hall of Fame. (10 of 16 if you count Carew as a 2B.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. Also captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. I assume John McGraw would not have played him at 2B if his fielding was not adequate for the position.

6. (7) Edd Roush
7. (8) Hugh Duffy
To my mind, the best of the high peak, 8000 plate appearance, 10-12 quality year outfielders. Both have very impressive peak/prime numbers, black and gray ink, CF defense, and MVP caliber years (1894 for Duffy, 1919 and 1920 for Roush). Rapid decline around age 33, but enough career before that to merit serious consideration

8. (9) Tommy Leach. I’ve undervalued him on past ballots for no good reason. EQA and OPS are similar to Carey, though his 6 seasons with 25+ WS is behind only Duffy on this ballot and suggests more peak than I realized. Given credit, of course, for 955 games of A+ defensive play at 3B.

9. (6) Rube Waddell. I’ve had him on my ballot every year, but for some reason my enthusiasm for his candidacy is flagging. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134. Would be higher but for concerns about his general effectiveness at winning games and preventing unearned runs.

10. (10) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 (but for 1920) and as high as 143. ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks mighty impressive to me.

11. (20) Wally Schang. Like Bresnahan, it seems to me that where you slot him depends upon what type of position bonus you give catchers. Both Schang and Bresnahan were tremendously productive according to various rate stats. Bresnahan is the better hitter, but Schang gets the nod for catching longer.

12. (12) George J. Burns. Once he became a starter in 1913, he averaged 25.6 WS a year for the next 10 years, which, I think, is the highest 10 year stretch of any eligible position player (and is due in part to his remarkable durability. By my count he missed only 14 games in those 10 years.) More steals of home than anyone not enshrined in the HoM.

13. (14) Cupid Childs. Nice peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Similar EQA and OPS+ to Groh. Short career but 20% more plate appearances than Jennings.

14. (13) Joe Sewell. Lots of arguments both in favor and against. WARP3 loves him, WS make him look a lot closer to Bancroft and Evers. That is, very good but not good enough for election. Better hitter than those two, but not as good as Doyle and Childs. Good glove, but not as good as Bancroft or Long. Very durable and played 150 plus games 9 straight years, but was done after that.

15. (15) Dobie Moore. I had previously been more or less ignoring his 7 years in the army, without which he doesn’t quite make the ballot. Given even conservative credit for those, his career begins to look as long as the other IFs on this ballot. The one player on this ballot who I am pretty sure was a better player than I am giving him credit for, and probably better than Sewell or Childs, but this is as high as I can put him given what I know.

1940 Ballot:

An unusually large and interesting entering class finds two pitchers showing up near the top of my ballot.

1. Wilbur Rogan –
Best pitcher/hitter combo since what’s-his-name on the ’18 Red Sox. I rank Rogan somewhere close to Rusie or Plank, which on this ballot makes Wilbur…
Number one with a BULLET.
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist.) :-)

2. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

3. Hughie Jennings –
According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Better peak than most HOMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes –
After a quick perusal of his career statistics, I expected him to wind up below Eppa Rixey—probably leaving him off my ballot—primarily based on the difference in their career ERA+. After a more careful evaluation, I was surprised to see Ol’ Stubblebeard well ahead. A lot of little factors that don’t show up in ERA+:
- Rixey benefited from better defensive support;
- Grimes was the better hitter – OPS+ of 58 for Grimes, 22 for Rixey;
- According to Chris J’s site, Grimes overachieved his RSI-adjusted W/L record by 4 wins, while Rixey underachieved by 3.
- Grimes was 2-0, 2.04, in the Cards’ 1931 World Series victory over the A’s.
- Most importantly for my system, Grimes had a much better peak. Here are their WS and WARP1 for their best 5 seasons:

WS
Grimes: 32, 30, 29, 25, 23
ERixey: 26, 26, 24, 23, 22

WARP1
Grimes: 10.6,10.3, 9.9, 7.3, 7.3
ERixey: 8.9, 8.0, 7.6, 7.0, 6.6

5. José de la Caridad Méndez –
An interesting anecdote from The Pride of Havana – At the end of the 1911 Cuban League season, several sportswriters got into a heated debate in print over whether the Almendares Blues, the team that Méndez had led to 3 pennants in 4 years, were good enough to win without him. Finally an exhibition game was arranged with the Blues’ traditional rival, the Habana Reds, in which the two teams would switch pitchers. Méndez proceeded to shut out his own teammates on 4 hits, leading Habana to a 4-0 victory.

6. Spottswood Poles –
IMO, a better hitter than Carey or Roush; a better fielder than Roush

7. Roger Bresnahan –
His peak towers over Schang’s.

8. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey, but I’ve rated him higher because of his years at 3B.

9. Clark Griffith –
It’s tough to sort out the pitchers, but the more information I look at, the better Griffith looks.

10. Dick Redding –
Career value similar to Coveleski’s.

11. George J. Burns –
Outstanding leadoff hitter; 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

12. Fielder Jones –
13. Urban Shocker –
14. Vic Willis –
All of them underappreciated.

15. Eppa Rixey –
See # 4 above.

1940 Ballot, Pt. 2

Next 5 (more or less)
16. Vic Willis. Last ballot I had Faber 11 and Willis 16. In retrospect, I probably should have reversed them.
17. Jimmy Ryan
18. Hughie Jennings
19. Roger Bresnahan
20. Burleigh Grimes or Wilbur Cooper

Required disclosures:
Hughie Jennings. I may be alone in thinking this, but I wonder whether his peak hasn’t been slightly overstated. Granted, his best 3 and 5 year WARP1 numbers are excellent, but his corresponding 3 and 5 best WS numbers, viewed non-consecutively, are almost identical to those of Edd Roush. (Best 5 years (non-consecutive) WS: 150 in 2989 PAs for Jennings, 147 in 2971 PAs for Roush.)

George Sisler. Was on my ballot in previous years. Will probably come back again in the future. I go back and forth on my assessment of his pre-injury years.

Jake Beckley. Not enough peak for my liking. With Sisler, Chance, and Taylor somewhere in the 20-25 range of the ballot.

New Guys:

I don’t have any of these guys on my ballot, but they’d make a great team.

John Beckwith. Great hitter. His “negative intangibles” (and tangibles) are incompatible with my idea of a HoM player.

Sam Rice: Harry Hooper minus the fielding and the championships. Compelling pre-baseball personal history. Not enough peak to get him higher than 25-30 for now.

Hack Wilson: Somewhere behind Jennings and Cravath on the short career/high peak list. I have doubts about his claim to greatness that I can’t really quantify.

Willie Kamm. Nice player. Odd to think he was the best 3B in White Sox franchise history before Robin Ventura.

Joe Judge: Somewhere in the Daubert, McInnis, and Lesser George Burns section of 1B rankings.

Dolf Luque and George Uhle: I don’t see Luque on the ballot without more Cuban league credit than I think is justified. Uhle looks better than I suspected, but not good enough.

Herb Pennock. Points for his nickname (The Knight of Kennett Square), but my wife is also from Kennett Square, PA, and I’m not casting a HoM vote for her either. (I am informed, however, that a baseball field in town is named after him.)

Other new arrivals:

George Uhle –
Surprised at how well he compares to the rest of the pitching glut. I have him at # 21.

Adolfo Luque –
Another fine pitcher, though not quite HOM level. Adding a bonus of about 10 percent for his achievements in the Cuban League bumped him up from # 37 to # 27. If he had really dominated Cuban baseball prior to his ML career, he could have made my ballot, but Méndez was the dominant Cuban pitcher during the first half of the teens, and Acosta during the second half. Dolf’s 1923 season was a real gem.

Hack Wilson –
In 1933 (33 years old and playing like he was 43) he turned in 5 games at second base. Go figure!
I have him at # 33, behind Charley Jones and Pike and ahead of Tiernan and Browning.

Sam Rice –
If there were a Hall of Consistency, he would be in its inner circle. Never one of the top players, I rank him at # 39, just ahead of Hooper.

Herb Pennock –
Too bad he couldn’t have pitched as well in the regular season as he did in the World Series (5-0, 1.95 in 10 games, 5 starts). Just misses my top 40.

Joe Judge –
Not even close to making my ballot, but I thought I’d mention that his grandson wrote a nice history of the 1924 Senators.

John Beckwith –
With considerable trepidation, here is my personal evaluation of Beckwith, which will not be universally popular.

Our constitution says, “A player’s ‘personality’ is to be considered only to the extent that it affected the outcomes of the player’s games.” In my evaluations I have generally limited myself to the players’ statistics, or in the absence of data, to my best projection, and have avoided intangibles—my only exception in recent elections has been for Cicotte. But because baseball is a team sport, I concede that a players’ personality and off-the-field behavior can affect his teammates and the performance of the team, so I am willing to take into account these factors when there is compelling evidence of an affect.

Riley reports several incidents in Beckwith’s career that I think must have adversely affected his teams. On two separate occasions, he had to leave town during the season to avoid arrest—1923 in Chicago and 1925 in Baltimore. The Baltimore case came from an incident in which he severely beat an umpire, which also led to his suspension. In 1924 Homestead released him in midseason for discipline problems; later Beckwith quit Baltimore in midseason without notice. Once he knocked his own team’s pitcher unconscious simply because the pitcher had visibly signaled disappointment at a Beckwith error that cost the game.

I’m aware that Beckwith was also a manager for several teams. Maybe he cleaned up his act later in his career. Maybe Riley simply has his story all wrong. But, for now, I still trust Riley as a source and therefore believe that during his prime, Beckwith’s personality and behavior negated much of his value as a hitter. I may be wrong, but IMHO Beckwith’s career does not reach HOM stature.

Top 10 not on my ballot:

Lip Pike - Overrated.

Joe Sewell - In putting together my ballots, I’m not always sure where the line should be drawn between greatness and ordinary excellence. One thing I am certain of, however, is that Jennings stands above that line and Sewell stands below.

George Sisler: Near miss.

Jake Beckley: Undistinguished.

Rube Waddell: I’ll take Vic Willis instead, thank you.

Andrew:

It looks like we both hit "Submit" at the same time. :-)

(Best 5 years (non-consecutive) WS: 150 in 2989 PAs for Jennings, 147 in 2971 PAs for Roush.)

But wouldn't you agree that Hughie's 150 must be worth more because they came from 132-game seasons, while Edd's were from 154-game seasons?

Oops, I forgot that Roush's 1919 season was 140 games. But the main point still applies.

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.
SOME MAJOR REVISIONS THIS TIME.

1. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. .THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

2. JOE ROGAN, P/3B/1B. 110 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 109 MLE ERA+ in 2,430 innings. 147 OPS+ in 4,646 AB’s. Major League comps are Allie Reynolds and Al Rosen.

3. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s.

4. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop. Still best eligible catcher.

5. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. He’s really not all that far away from McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

6. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

7. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

8. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

9. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

10. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

11. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons blow away Beckley’s best. Perhaps best firstbaseman in the whole 1900-1920 time period.

12. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff.

13. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

14.DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

15. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Much better hitter than Maranville. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:
NEWBIES:

HACK WILSON, CF. .685 OWP. 325 RCAP. 5,556 PAs. Def: POOR. Very close to Browning, but really not better than Tiernan.

SAM RICE, RF. .572 OWP. NEGATIVE 2 RCAP. 10,245 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Nice long career, but not enough offense to match up with other candidates. Harry Hooper clone.

DOLPH LUQUE, P. 189 RSAA, 173 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 3,221 innings. With some credit for Cuban Leagues, he’s still just Jack Quinn with more peak.

BURLEIGH GRIMES, P. 129 RSAA, 175 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 107 ERA+ in 4,180 innings. Less value than even Quinn.

JOE JUDGE, 1B. .572 OWP. 40 RCAP. 9,170 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Another nice long career, but not enough offense to match up with other candidates. Jake Daubert comp.

MARTY McManus, 2B/3B. .488 OWP. 115 RCAP. 7,563 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Another one for the Hall of the Very Good.

WILLIE KAMM. .476 OWP. 93 RCAP. 6,935 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Great Glove. Larry Gardner comp.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis.

DAVE MALARCHER, 3B. Estimated 91 OPS+ over 5,172 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Poor man’s Willie Kamm. Comp is Frank Malzone.

RETURNEES:

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks)

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber!


MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

LIP PIKE, CF. Perhaps best hitting CF of the 1870’s. Similar to Hack Wilson.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being much higher.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that. Not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.

Brent-

For a few seconds after hitting "submit" and seeing your ballot I thought I had done something so seriously wrong I couldn't even understand what it was...

Re your comment:
"But wouldn't you agree that Hughie's 150 must be worth more because they came from 132-game seasons, while Edd's were from 154-game seasons?"

Perhaps, but here's what I was driving at—as several voters have mentioned over the years, Jennings's unadjusted 150 WS over 5 years are better than those of any other eligible position player. (They look even better if you adjust them to a 154 or 162 game season, of course.) Roush is next at 147 unadjusted WS, followed by Burns at 146. I had assumed that Jennings's total was much more impressive than it looked because, as you point out, his teams were playing 20 fewer games per season than Roush. Thinking about the eras in which they played, and the runs scored in those eras, it occurred to me that while Jennings had the opportunity to play in fewer games, he may not have had fewer plate appearances--which turns out to be true. Between 1894-1898, Jennings's Baltimore team played 666 games, while Roush's Reds in 1917, 1919, 1920, 1923, and 1925 played 754 games. Jennings played in 649 of those 666 games (97.4%) while Roush played in 690 of the Reds' 754 games (91.5%). In the 649 games Jennings played, he had 2989 plate appearances, while Roush had 2971 PAs in the 690 games in which he played. So, for what it's worth, Jennings is generating 150 WS in fewer games than Roush, but not fewer PAs.

As to which is worth more…I think Jennings's 150 WS achieved in 5 consecutive years is more impressive than Roush's 147 in 5 non-consecutive years. Perhaps there is an argument to be made that WS/162 games tells us more than WS/600 PAs, but the similarity of Jennings’s peak to Roush’s in WS/PA is one of the reasons I am currently inclined to think that Jennings's 5 yr. peak was not of such historic greatness that he belongs in the HoM and that Roush is perhaps being somewhat overlooked.

Rob Wood led off his ballot with Rogan, Rixey, and Roush, and found a way to include a Rabbit and a Rube.

This message has been brought to you by the letter "R".

Andrew M,

Maybe I am misunderstanding your last post, but I would say that the shortened schedule for Jennings is more improtant than the fact that he had teh same plate appearances.

1) Offense in the 1890's won't count for as much because there was so much of it. That Jennings had more at bats and (possibly) fewer WS per AB, doesnt' tell us anything because any player that plays in an offensive era will have a lower WS/AB ratio than any player from a defensive era.

2) WS are predicated on games won, not AB's. So even though Roush had fewer at bats (many times because he held out or was hurt, things I am not willing to give him credit for) he played in a league where more WS were handed out. So there should be a schedule adjustment for Jennings, Childs, Van Haltren, Duffy, et al. # of AB's shouldn't really be a factor in WS.

jschmeagol,

Excellent points, thanks. I've spent more time over the past 5 ballots thinking about where to rank Jennings than any other player, and I still am uneasy about it. My initial hunch, which I was trying to prove or disprove, was that Jennings's and Roush's offensive contributions during their 5 best years were about the same, but I should have stuck with Runs Created or BRAR or something similar rather than extending the analysis to WS. Of course, Jennings has a lot more than just offense and Roush has much more career than Jennings, so for now I'll stick with Roush at #6 and Jennings at #18, but there's a part of me that would like to see Hughie get elected just so I can stop thinking about him. :)

1940 ballot. Lots of good careers among the newcomers, but not a very strong slate overall. I'd like to vote for Lou Gehrig as #1 under the "honor the living" argument, but I can't. Ruel, Judge, McManus, and Kamm are better than I realized, but not serious HoM contenders. Grimes, Uhle, Pennock, and Luque (with a small bonus for non-ML play) form a glut of similar good pitchers who won't make my ballot. Hack Wilson is part of the Wilson-Combs-Terry group of players who may be historically overrated because of inflated batting stats in the 1920s-1930s. I'm not sold on Beckwith, but he deserves a closer look.

1. Wally Schang I've decided, without any deeper justification, that the number of catchers in the HoM should be roughly the same as for other positions. I compute Win Shares per plate appearance to compare catchers within individual seasons. Because catcher usage is so variable, this means that what I consider the "best catcher" for a year may not be the one with the most WS. In any case, I have Schang as the top/in the top 2/in the top 3 catcher 5/8/9 times in a career of 19.3 equivalent seasons. Bresnahan ranked near the top 3/6/8 times (some of them as a CF), respectively, in a career of 16.9 equivalent seasons. Schalk is the least deserving catcher on my ballot, because he was only near the top 0/2/3 times, but was generally one of the better catchers, and set the record (at the time) for games played at C.

2. Joe Sewell I have Sewell as one of the top 1/2/3 (major league) SS 3/8/9 times (one 3B season included); Bancroft 2/4/6 in a career of similar length. Maranville was among the leaders 0/1/3 times in a significantly longer career. Overall, the differences are enough to put Sewell in my PHoM and relegate the others to the Very Good Hall.

3. Roger Bresnahan

4. Eppa Rixey Suddenly, lots of high IP pitchers have become eligible in a short time. We have

Rixey 4495 IP; 115 ERA+; 266-251; NL
Grimes 4180 IP; 107 ERA+; 270-212; NL
Faber 4087 IP; 119 ERA+; 254-213; AL
Quinn 3920 IP; 114 ERA+; 247-218; mostly AL; 2 seasons FL

In spite of their similarities on the surfaces, my methodology shows significant differences. I rate pitchers on ERA+ and career length relative to standards for the era, apply league corrections, and apply "bonuses" for seasons with very high ERA+. Faber (elected in 1939) comes out on top based on his peak. While rarely one of the best P in baseball, Rixey was good for so long that I rate him highly in spite of being a NL "enemy". Quinn was Faber without the standout seasons. The poor man out in my system is Grimes. The shortfall of 8 points of ERA+ and 315 IP that he has relative to Rixey is enough to knock him down into Powell/Mullin territory. He doesn't make my ballot in spite of the W/L.

5. Sam Rice At one time, before the HoM existed, I was a "peak-only" analyst. Rice was going to be my poster child as a player who was not worthy because he had no peak. My philosophy appears to have changed. Hooper's twin in a more offense-heavy era.

6. Harry Hooper Long career, "peakless" players are some of the hardest to rank. I consider career length and performance relative to peers at the same position as part of my rankings and rate in a "top-down" fashion; in the end, Rice, Hooper and Beckley stand out more than, say, Lave Cross or Tommy Leach. I wouldn't insist on them belonging in the HoM, but I reject the extreme argument that having "no peak" is a fatal flaw for a candidate. Cooperstown has always been kind to the player who accumulates standout career totals without ever dominating. Why should we be different?


7. Jose Mendez Brilliant phase within a longer career; rating him near Waddell seems about right.

8. Jake Beckley

9. George "Rube" Waddell The bottom half of my ballot is loaded with AL pitchers whose careers were not as long as the pitchers discussed above, but who had higher ERA+ and contended more often for ERA+ titles.

Waddell: 2961 IP; 134 ERA+; 193-143
Shocker: 2682 IP; 124 ERA+; 187-117
Cicotte: 3223 IP; 123 ERA+; 208-149

10. Ray Schalk

11. Jack Quinn
12. Urban Shocker
13. Eddie Cicotte

14. Joe Rogan The most difficult decision. Makes my ballot in part because of historical reputation; his record looks good but not clear-cut. On the other hand, his documented career doesn't start until age 30, and he may deserve more credit than I'm giving him for pre-1920 play.

15. George Van Haltren A centerfield "career" pick from the 1890s. Beats Ryan because of more pitching value and more time as a CF.


Returning top 10 omissions

16. Lip Pike. Gets bumped off my ballot by newcomers just as he gets to top runner-up position in the consensus vote.

21. Hughie Jennings: Definite greatness, but hurt by shortness of prime.

23. Cupid Childs. Very good, the kind of player that my system would love, if only he could have maintained his prime for another season or two.

24. Clark Griffith. Next best 1890s pitcher.

38. George Sisler: Very good first half of career, but I don't see his prime as any greater than John McGraw's, who I rate similarly. Second half of his career adds little to his case.

Just to clarify, What year was Bullet Joe Rogan born in? I see some people giving him credit for years prior to 1920 thinking he was born in 1889. If he was born in 1893, as some have suggested, then he should recieve much less credit for his military years.

The date in our "official" source -- Riley's _Encyclopedia_, is 1889.

gadfly has posted that Rogan's biography explains that Rogan was born in 1893 and that he lied about his age in order to enlist in the Army.

I haven't read the biography myself, but I accept the 1893 date. The shape of his career makes more sense if he was almost 27 when he started his NeL career rather than almost 31.

1.Lip Pike
Pike:
a)averaged about 34 aWS per season during an eight-year stretch (275 aWS in 10-year documented career; -5 WS for two token appearances; 270/8=33.85). While I acknowldege the difficulties of adjusted win shares for the NA era, that’s still quite a prime.
b) His career OPS+ of 155 is higher than anyone on the ballot except Browning.
c) was the best outfielder—not centerfielder, but OUTFIELDER-- in baseball in 1871, ’74, ‘75’ and ’76.
d) was a star for five years before the NA, one of the first players to be paid, probably the best second baseman in the game during 1869-1870.

2.Jake Beckley
3.Clark Griffith

I understand why Beckley is as welcome to peak voters as the Dixie Chicks would be at the Republican National Convention. But I’m not really a peak voter, and Jake’s a good career pick. He has 316 unadjusted Win Shares, which modified for schedule length would be, what, 330-340 WS? Not a lock, but hardly an embarrassment to the HoM. His WARP3 career score is good (87.1). He had 13 seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. His career grey ink is good, and he has very good counting stats; I know we have to take the 90s level of offense into account, but 2900 hits/1600runs/1500 RBI certainly doesn’t discourage me from putting him high on the ballot. His era is underrepresented as it is, and I can’t imagine inducting another first baseman who played between 1897 and 1915. I’m sold.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

4.Tommy Leach
5.Eppa Rixey

Leach has 324 career WS. We’ve elected every position player with more career Win Shares except Van Haltren and Carey, and Van Haltren’s WS (344) are distorted by his pitching stint. He played near flawless CF/3B and hit in a low offense era.

Rixey 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, Jack Powell, and Roger Clemens (for the moment) are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

6.Joe Rogan
7.George Sisler
8.John Beckwith

I was not Bob Caruthers’ best friend, and I’m not sure Rogan deserves the quick entry to the HoM that he will likely get. Still, Rogan’s career was longer than Caruthers—much more if you count his army days—and I just can’t put him any lower than this. Beckwith reminds me of Lip Pike: could hit the crap out the ball, had an attitude problem, and has questions about his defense and league quality.

Cap Anson and Roger Connor retired in 1897, so we currently have a forty-year-and counting gap of first basemen in the HoM. Gehrig will reduce that to thirty; if we elect Beckley, the gap will be twenty years. Kelly in SD’s list further convinces me that Sisler deserves to be high on the ballot; he was the best 1B in baseball for five seasons, at the end of a long drought of quality first sackers.

9.Edd Roush
10.Rube Waddell

I’m surprised that I have this Roush this high; I thought he would end up near the CF glut off the ballot. He was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

11.Ned Williamson
12.Hugh Jennings
13.Pete Browning
14.Cupid Childs
15.Wally Schang

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better. If you give Browning a healthy AA discount (obviously a matter of contention), then he was a comparable player to Sam Thompson: relatively short career, not much defense, but a very good hitter.

Schang is an interesting “in-between candidate”. He stacks up well against his competitors from 1895-1925: McGuire, Schalk, Petway, and, yes, Bresnahan (Bresnahan has a higher peak, but Schang has 500 more games at catcher and a thousand more PA). However, he does not look good when compared to catchers who played after ’25: Hartnett, Cochrane, Dickey, Mackey. For now, that lands him at the bottom of the ballot.

26. Joe Sewell Does not compare well to other shortsops in the HoM. I’m not convinced he was better than John Beckwith or Dick Lundy.

1940 Ballot

Lots of ins, lots of outs, and lots of speculation about missing years, bad attitudes, and birthdates, which means that perhaps some of my thinking won't be terribly consistent candidate by candidate...except in that it's inconsistent.

1. Bullet Rogan
There's enough documented from age 27 (or 31) onward to sell me on Rogan in an elect-me slot in this weak field. Bill James has said in a couple places that great players often have few true comps because being great is often accompanied by uniqueness. The simultaneous combination of effective hurling and hitting isn't truly unique in the Negro Leagues (and if W. Ferrell is an example, not even in 1920s and 1930s in MLB), but its rarity argues well for Rogan.

2. George Van Haltren
Still the best career numbers on the board; still not as weak a peak as the likes of Beckley; still worthy of induction into the HOM.

3. Hugh Duffy
As someone pointed out this week, where's the love for Duffy's peak? Especially considering that he's not exactly chopped liver on the career side, particularly when his WS are adjusted for schedule length.

4. Spots Poles
Less peak than Duffy, less career than GVH.

5. Jose Mendez
Big peak, and enough shoulder seasons to shoulder his way past the likes of Waddell.

6. Eppa Rixey
The anti-Dean/Koufax candidate with all kinds of career value, and a steady stream of 20 win share seasons. If Rixey were a 70s rock band, he'd be Journey: a long, successful career with lots of songs and albums that chart highly, but no #1s.

7. George "Not born in Tioga" Burns
A really nice peak/prime that petered out a little too quickly to give him the career boost he needs.

8. Edd Roush
The extra d wasn't for defense, but he did a have a productive peak, almost as good as Burns's, and a little more career value. I lean to peak, so Burns is ahead. Someone else could easily feel differently.

9. Hughie Jennings
As ever, a peak lover's dream, a career lover's nightmare. Someone in baseball history had to be the perfect demonstration of the peak/career argument, and it's him.

10. Tommy Leach
More career than Burns, but not enough peak to get above him.

11. Wilbur Cooper
Wow, two Wilburs on one ballot. Cooper's consistent finishes among the top pitchers in his league combined with just enough career to make him dangerous get him almost into my top ten.

12. Cupid Childs
Great OBP, nice peak/prime, not enough career value.

13. John Beckwith
Here's the man I'm really struggling with. On one hand, Chris's projections show me someone not quite as effective as Doyle who is off of my ballot. On the other hand, there's also talk about his organized-league exuent in the 1930s being, in part, driven by a want to stay in familiar surroundings. Given the instability of the era, what with the then recent foldings of the NNL, ECL, and E-WL, there was probably ample reason for him to doubt whether the NNL would continue as a profitable enterprise and, therefore, to eschew playing in it when he could make money playing near home. My hindsight on Negro Leaguers is blurriest with regard to this sort of matter, that is, what effect the loose organization of the teams and leagues had on players and teams. Anyway, the (now) long and short of it is that, I think there's more room in Beckwith's projection for upside than in Doyle's actual stat lines or in Moore's (due to the clear termination point of his career). That's why they're not here and Beckwith is.

As to the attitude stuff, I also think this is a reflection of the (then) probable lack of support systems for atheletes, especially in the Negro Leagues, which probably couldn't afford those luxuries. I don't know that Milton Bradley's all that different from John Beckwith, but he's had a support structure to keep him reigned in enough that he hasn't killed someone. Yet.

14. Bill Monroe
Decent peak, decent career, but I wish I would quit hemming and hawing on him.

15. Vic Willis
Led his league a couple times, among the leaders several others, hurt sometimes by bad defenses, helped other times by good ones. A weird, quirky candidate as Chris J's numbers tell us.

odds and sots:

Pike: Haven't vote for him since 1932, and I haven't seen anything more to make me want to vote for him.

Sewell: The best in a weak era for SS. I'm not convinced by his soft peak and low career WS. As a lengthy aside, when my pal Dan and I used to play Earl Weaver baseball back in the early 90s, we made up silly nicknames for many of the players. There was Edd Rash, Eddie "The Yeti" Collins (because it rhymed, which led to Jimmy "the Jimmy" Collins). We referred to Ty Cobb by his full first name, Tyrus, so we also called Cy Young Cyrus. Anticipating the J-Lo reovlution, we called Walter Johnson WoJo. There was "Flabby" Gabby Hartnett and Alkaline. Charlie Gehringer was "The Bank Robber" because Dan confused Gehringer with Dillinger. And there was Joe Stinker. Home Run Baker rarely homered so we called him "Home Run Faker." Anyway, this is just pointless reminiscence on my eggheaded teen years leading to the anticlimactic memory that we called Sewell "Joe Sewage."

Clark Griffith: Just off the end of the ballot.

Sisler: Not enough peak to overcome modest career totals (esp for a 1B) and half a career of being Hal Morris.

Beckley: Sorry Karlmagnus, I just can't bring myself to vote for "The Who Never Peaked." ; )

Waddell: ERA+ is easier to rack up, mathematically, in a lower run environment. Between that and all those unearned runs, I'm not convinced Rube was as good as the WS say.

Grimes: I wasn't Fabermetrically inclined, and I'm not a Grimesean either.

Oms: A good, not great hitter with nice Cuban numbers and decent NgL numbers, but not enough, to make me vote for him.

Rice: A man after Jake Beckley's heart.

The Hack Man: He's what you get when you combine Edd Roush's peak with Hughie Jennings's career totals.

1940 Ballot

1. Rogan, Joe – I find two-way players nearly impossible to evaluate with any comfort. My gut tells me he should be #1 and I’ve got him around 382 WS (196 pitching and 186 hitting), so I’m giving him the top spot. I did, however, seriously consider putting Beckwith first.

2. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 349 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

3. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

4. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

5. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

6. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

7. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor in the outfield.

8. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

9. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

10. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good normalized counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

11. Mays, Carl – Better peak than career, and WS looks better than WARP1. A couple of MVP caliber seasons, and several other All-Star caliber seasons. Probably won’t make my PHoM, but is right on the edge.

12. Rice, Sam – Mostly career, with little peak, and WS likes him much better than WARP. Really a one-dimensional hitter, but he was very good in that dimension.

13. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

14. Waddell, Rube -- Comparable to Griffith, but win totals are far less impressive. Can't see putting him ahead of Griffith, unless you overvalue strikeouts. He floats on and off my ballot.

15. Grimes, Burleigh – A real workhorse with flashes of greatness.

Required Disclosures:

Pike, Lip – He’s #41 in my system, behind Heinie Zimmerman and ahead of Charlie Buffinton.

Sewell, Joe – He’s #17 in my system, essentially tied with Larry Doyle and Tommy Leach, and just slightly ahead of Jake Beckley. A very solid player but not spectacular enough to crack the ballot for now.

Jennings, Hughie -- He’s #33 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan and ahead of Rabbit Maranville. I’ve never been comfortable enough with his career length to place him highly.

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #48 in my system, behind Cy Seymour and tied with Hack Wilson. I understand the wide divergence between my ranking and the consensus ranking of Pike (hard-to-get-a-handle-on career) and Jennings (peak vs. career), but this one is a mystery. That career winning percentage of .513 with only 8.8 wins above team is a stinker. I’ve got to side with the WARP analysis on this one…at 275 IP per year, he’d give you a WARP of about 4.2. I like steady, but I need some brilliance too.

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in grey ink and Keltner tests. He’s #20 in my system, behind Joe Sewell and ahead of Tony Mullane.

Thanks Chris. I just wanted to make sure taht we werent' givign Rogan too much extra credit. The difference between losing only the front end of your 'prime' (25-59) and losing your whole 'prime' is pretty significant.

1940 ballot:

1. Mickey Welch: The best candidate by the combined weight of the evidence. Kelly from SD has made the case for him better than I ever could – see posts 107-108 in the 1939 discussion thread. (PHOM 1929)

2. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. I like the gray ink & counting stats. No eye-popping seasons, but an all-star caliber player for 10 years.(PHOM 1926)

3. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

4. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after – still, was the STATS all-star 1B in 1925, and a probable runner-up to Gehrig in ’27. Good black & gray ink. I’d think peak voters would really like him. Looks like some do, some don’t. (PHOM 1938)

5. Joe Rogan: Shoulda been an MLB star, definitely as a pitcher, maybe as a position player. It’s doubtful he would have done both in the majors. If his comp is Caruthers, he goes about here. If he’s the 3rd best pitcher in Negro League history, he’s first on the ballot. I’ll take the conservative approach this year, and see if he’s eligible again in ’41. PHOM this year in any case.

6. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, above-average offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

7. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense. (PHOM this year, finally)

8. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W% and quite a few of his teams were mediocre at best. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons.

9. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

10. Wally Schang
11. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1932)
The HOM needs catchers. Wally edges the Duke on the basis of playing time & durability. Their defense is comparable, and Schang’s offense isn’t that much below.

12. Tommy Leach: A+ defense at two important positions, solid offense for the era. Pennants added numbers help his case.

13. Dick Redding: Similar in different ways to some on- and off-ballot pitchers: Griffith, Faber, Cooper. I’ve spotted him in-between, which seems about right.

14. Larry Doyle: Good offensive credentials. Defense wasn’t stellar, but at least adequate.

15. John Beckwith: Hitting-wise, I see a lot of similarities to Browning, but I get the impression that Beckwith was really bad on defense, maybe Ed McKean bad. Browning was no prize, but gets a C+ from James. Given the short rosters in the Negro Leagues, Beckwith might well have been his teams’ best option at 3b or ss. The best option is not necessarily a good one.

Formerly on the ballot, now waiting in the wings: Vic Willis, Rube Waddell, Carl Mays, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Cupid Childs, Spots Poles, and Lip Pike.

Required explanations:
Pike: Was fairly low on my ballot in some of the lean years, I don’t see him making it back on anytime soon as the talent base gets ever larger.
Jennings: Exceptional peak, but little else.
Rixey: Right behind Faber, who was 15th on my ballot in ’39..
Waddell: Terrific ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, but the W-L is worse than what you’d think given those. His odd behavior must have given the Tall Tactician a lot of headaches.

New players:
Sam Rice: Harry Hooper in a hitter-friendlier era. Never a STATS all-star, backup quality 2-3 times. Behind a lot of outfielders.
Joe Judge: Likewise no all-star slots, well behind Beckley, Sisler & Taylor.
Hack Wilson: Really nice peak, with 2 retro-MVPs, not enough career value.
Herb Pennock, Dolf Luque & George Uhle: Not very impressed by any of them, I doubt any would make my top 15 even if I voted for all pitchers.

1940 Ballot

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 13 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. I don’t believe in much extra value for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

This year’s ballot includes about 30% pitchers, 40% catcher/infielders, and 30% OF/1B types.

1- Clark Griffith (1)

It’s possible, I guess, that he’ll lose his #1 spot to the Ruth fella next ballot.

2- Bullet Joe Rogan (new)

Consensus of those who know better than me puts him at least this high.

“Hall of very good” starts right about here…

3- Lip Pike (3)

AdjEqA of .303. Fine WS and OPS+. He’s Larry Doyle, only better.

4- George Van Haltren (2)

Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.

5- Roger Bresnahan (7)

A nod to position scarcity. A great player when he was on the field. Re-reading Bill James’ “Whatever happened to the Hall of Fame”, it’s amazing how he trashed the Bresnahan HoF selection so often in that book, and now Roger is #16 in his NBJHA. The truth seems to be somewhere in the middle.

6- John McGraw (8)

I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP isn’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us.

7- Joe Sewell (6)

Did I mention I like guys who have a good peak and a great career, who can hit and field, and who in general may not have any one stat that defines them, but overall win lots of ballgames for their teams? Not quite Alan Trammell, but beats Dave Concepcion.

8- Tommy Leach (9)

As a third baseman he’s high (3rd?) on my ballot. As an OFer he’s off. He lands here.

9- Larry Doyle (11)

A 2Bman with such a high OWP deserves attention.

10- Rube Waddell (13)

Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit. We’ve already elected 8 pitchers from his prime - that nudges him down a bit. But his big KOs would have made him a bigger stud in most other eras, and that bumps him back up.

11- Cupid Childs (12)

A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points, enough to get him on the ballot.

12- Addie Joss (14)

Bonus points for his great pennant exploits gets him on the edge.

13- Frank Chance (off)

He lacks the big seasons if you use WARP or WS, since those measure rely on playing time to accumulate much value. But by RCAP in a run-starved environment, and taking into account his team’s performance, his peak, prime and career are all durn fine. Small bonus because I assess that he would have played a few more games if he weren’t managing. Another bonus for playing 1/7th of his career as a catcher. Yet another small bonus for his fine play in 4 World Series. And his rep was real good too. I hope he makes more than 10% of our ballots this year.

14- John Beckwith (new)

I need more help on Boom Boom. Not for lack of effort on the part of some fine research here; I simply have not made the time to process the info, much of which goes against the conventional wisdom. I feel he at least deserves to be ON the ballot, and he might oughta be much higher. Right now he looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew, with the makeup and career length of Dick Allen. If he could really hit like Allen, he should be #2 on the ballot. But this isn’t Beckwith’s last shot at being elected, so I will be conservative for now.

15- Mickey Welch (15)

I figure he was maybe 10 “wins” better than his ERA+/WARP/WS data suggests, or maybe an ERA that should be .25 better, based on his distribution of runs allowed.

Sadly, somebody has to get left off. I want a 20-man ballot!!

Jake Beckley (off)

Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM tho. Pretty directly comparable with Roush, and he loses by a hair, even if I give him more credit than WS/WARP for playing 1B.

Hughie Jennings

Great for 5 years. If we had a PEAK Hall of Merit, Hughie would be a shoo-in.
George Sisler
Great for 6 years. See above. If only his severe injury had been even one year later…
Ed Konetchy (off)
If he had been born 12 years later, he’d have been a monster slugger. A closer look has bumped right into the 1B glut; four guys about whom I can’t decide which one is highest or lowest.

Ed Roush (10)

Bumped down this week. Win Shares may severely overrate him, for two reasons: One, CFers are in general given too much credit by WS, and two, there is some question as to whether he was really an “A” defensive CFer; WARP shows him as below average.

Hack Wilson - not quite Pete Browning.
Sam Rice - not quite Jack Beckley or Ed Roush
Grimes, Luque, Penncok - in the blob of very good pitchers
Eppa Rixey - Not much above average; can’t vote for him over Mickey Welch, for example.

Others who are close: Bobby Veach, Bill Monroe, Urban Shocker, W Schang, D Redding, J Mendez, H Duffy, C Jones, J Ryan

A lot of ballot-filler among the rookies this year, but just off of my ballot. Rice might be on the ballot if some of my PHOMers were also your HOMers. Grimes has a rather pedestrian DERA compared to the other eligible pitchers, which drops him significantly on the rankings here.

My ballot’s due for a healthy re-analysis. Fortunately, a look at the new eligibles thread tells me I’m going to have a few months coming up here to make sure I get it right. Since there’s a possibility that no one listed below might appear on the ballot in 1950, I’m pledging to not forget the fellows listed below when we’re into the ‘Elect 3’ years. Keep hope alive Joe Start!

1. George Van Haltren (2), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – So close to election before the superstar surge, after things return to normal he’s not even top 10, having fallen behind 6 others who were eligible eight years ago. I don’t get it.
2. Jimmy Ryan (3), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – His chances were slim when VH was close.
3. Harry Hooper (4), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
4. Joe Rogan (n/a), KC (--), SP / OF (’20-’34) (1940) – Not a shoo-in, but I don’t think he’ll be eligible for 1941.
5. John Beckwith (n/a), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – I-9’s say I should rank him above Taylor. Appears to me to rank solidly amongst the banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson).
6. Joe Sewell (6), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) -- Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys.
7. Fielder Jones (5), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930) – On the ballot solely to crush my consensus scores.
8. Ben Taylor (7), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
9. Jake Beckley (8), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Solid numbers forever.
10. Rube Waddell (9), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – The K’s still impress after all this time.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – Hopefully in ’42.
11. Eppa Rixey (15), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings. Seems more impressive this week, thanks to Grimes.
--. Mordecai Brown, Chic. (N), SP (’03-’16) –
12. Urban Shocker (10), St.L (A), SP (’16-’27) – Solid pitcher, deserves his place among all the other pitchers here getting more votes.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) – Another too soon pick, but he’ll get in eventually.
--. Joe Start, Atlantic-Bkn (NABBP)-N.Y.Mut.(NL), 1B (‘60-’86) –
13. Wally Schang (12), Phila. – NY (A), C (’13-’31) – Small difference between him & Bresnahan, but a) clearly Wally is the better in my mind, and b) there are many evenly ranked players near the same overall value that create quite a distance between the two on my ballot.
14. Clark Griffith (13), Chic. (N) - NY (A), SP (’91-’14) – The pitchers at the bottom here look better to me than Eddie Rommel.
15. Eddie Cicotte (14), Chic. (A), SP (’08-’20) (1930) – Now that the obvious honorees have been taken care of, the pre-’34 crowd is back.

Lip Pike – Too many other worthies have arrived (and will continue to) and rank ahead of him. Doesn’t look likely that he’ll ever make it to the ballot.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.
George Sisler – Jennings had the better career

Pike, Jennings & Sisler were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.

I’m pledging to not forget the fellows listed below when we’re into the ‘Elect 3’ years. Keep hope alive Joe Start!

Joe was actually still alive when he was inducted. "Old Reliable" actually got to spend 15 years in the Members-Only Lounge of the HOM before moving to the Ghosts-of-HOM-ers-Past wing.

7. Fielder Jones ... – On the ballot solely to crush my consensus scores.

Trust me - putting Jimmy Ryan in an "elect me" spot makes a considerably bigger difference.

1940 Ballot

1-Bullet Joe Rogan
When Rogan was 40 years old he struck out Al Simmons four straight times in an exhibition game. He had incredible years with the Monarchs after being a late bloomer due to military service. He’s probably one of the top 5 or 6 pitcher/offensive threat combo in professional baseball history. He deserves to be a first balloter.

2-Pete Browning 225 WS
I keep Pete in the number 2 spot…he deserves to be in the HOM. He does have a down side. But he was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

3-Lip Pike
I moved Lip up. I’m more and more convinced he’s ready to go in. Great numbers even though he was in the twilight of his career during the NA days. Like Browning he was the go to guy on a lot of teams going back to the mid-1860s.

4-Dick Redding
Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. The Cannonball shut out Smoky Joe Williams twice in 1920…including a 5-0 win at Ebbets Field.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

6-Wally Schang 245 WS
He continues to move up my list after more research. I’ve come to the conclusion that Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. Wally had an interesting career that spanned the dead ball era into the middle of the live ball era.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

8-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
Grimes matches up well with the just elected Faber. His 270 wins and a high Grey Ink are impressive.

9-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
After more research moved Jennings up a few slots. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

10-Sam Rice 327 WS
Wheat and Clarke are his comps. Rice ranks high on the triple list. He had success in both the dead & live eras.


11-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.


12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

13-Joe Sewell 277 WS
Very hard to strike out and had a tough act to follow (Chapman’s death). He made position change (to third base) late in his career and continued to still have great numbers.

14-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time.

15-Carl Mays 256 WS
Penalized for Chapman incident and pitching in a high run-producing era. Mays was hard to get along with but was a gamer. He had strong numbers for 3 teams spread out across his entire 15-year career.

1940 ballot:

1. Lip Pike - One of the best players in early baseball. The pre-NA numbers confirm what I have believed about his early career

2. Bullet Joe Rogan - All evidence points to a fantastic two-way player deserving of enshrinement.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A historical monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

9. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

10. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

12. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

13. Roger Bresnahan - Edges out Schang and Shalk as my top catcher available. Have moved him back up because I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

14. Frank Chance - The opposite of Beckley. Was the standard for excellence at his position but injuries did him in. Tragic that it was the "competitive" nature of his opposition that caused him part of his career and shortened his life.

15. John Beckwith - Early analysis starts him right on the edge of my ballot. Looks to be a fearsome hitter with not that good defense. Still not too sure on how to properly place him.

For Sewell, he stays put at number 16 is because of the new eligibles that made my ballot. A little more playing carer and he would have been on th ballot. As for Rixey, the flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot around 20, edged by Grimes.

Sorry, not much time this week. Next week I will elaborate on the newcomers.

1. Pike (5-5-3-1-1) – He was a star as a secondbaseman in the 60’s and a centerfielder in the 70’s. A star in this era should rate higher than just a very good player from any other era.
2. Griffith (7-7-5-3-2) – Unfortunately his support his fading. Covaleski with a little less peak

3. Rogan (new)
4. Leach (11-9-7-5-3) – Another infielder who is greatly underrated. Should rate close to Groh but probably doesn’t get the positional boost Groh is getting. Similar career to Ryan/VH comes out ahead when taking into account his time at third base. Makes my pHoM this year.
5. Mendez (13-10-8-6-5) – Great peak, a little more career and he would be a clear HOMer. Now he is still a borderline candidate.
6. Rixey (6) – see Faber.
7. Van Haltren (8-11-9-7-7) – Made my pHoM a few years ago and was probably the last of the 19th century to do so.
8. Shocker (12-13-11-8-8) – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot based on his great peak. Underrated by this group.
9. Ryan (9-12-10-10-10) – Nearly identical to VH.

10. Redding (13-11-11) – Using Chris Cobb’s Win Share estimates, he rates very similar to Cooper.
11. Cooper (16-15-14-12-12) – Steadily rising in my ranking. Still have to see if he stood out enough from his pears to remain so high.

12. C. Jones (22-16-15-13-13) – Every now and then Ol’ Charlie reappears on my ballot. Jones leads a large group of very good players who I don’t feel are HoM-worthy.
13. Roush (14-14) – See #12
14. Hooper (15-15) – See #12
15. Grimes (new) – Just hopping on on his first try.