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Monday, December 13, 2004

1941 Ballot

All you need to know is the words Ruth and Hornsby for this ballot. You could even place Jack Chesbro, Rube Marquard and Tommy McCarthy somewhere between 3 and 15 for all it’s going to do (which is nothing).

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 13, 2004 at 05:13 AM | 140 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. jimd Posted: December 18, 2004 at 12:19 AM (#1028356)
However, with all the mid-inning relieving that now goes on and the way that runs are credited,

Good point. Consistently pitching only the first third of an inning is much tougher on the ERA than pitching only the last third of an inning, due to the scoring probabilities associated with the runners left on base. IIRC, something I read once suggested they be weighted 4:3:2; this supposedly equalized the ERA. (Pitching 9 first-thirds would be worth 4IP instead of 3IP; pitching 9 last-thirds would be worth 2IP instead of 3IP.) Kind of bizarre, but maybe it works.
   102. jimd Posted: December 18, 2004 at 12:30 AM (#1028373)
Ballot for 1941

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my system (yet again). Maybe next election.

1) G. H. RUTH (!)

2) R. HORNSBY (!)

3) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those previously eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball". All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible or are above him on this ballot; elected to my PHOM a quarter-century ago.

Thought experiment: Pick your favorite "no-brainer" HOMer. If you cut his career short due to a Sisler/Delahanty tragedy, at what point is it too short and no longer a HOM career?

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

6) H. DUFFY -- Underrated.

7) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

8) D. VANCE -- Dominant at his peak.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; looked at new WARP and liked what I saw.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Long solid career.

13) H. HOOPER -- Long solid career.

14) J. RYAN -- All been said before.

15) E. RIXEY -- Long solid career.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) George Sisler, John Beckwith, Ned Williamson, Fielder Jones,
20-24) Herman Long, Wally Schang, Edd Roush, Dick Redding, Jim McCormick,
25-29) Jose Mendez, Del Pratt, Gavy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Sam Rice,
30-33) Tommy Bond, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley
   103. Paul Wendt Posted: December 18, 2004 at 01:18 AM (#1028449)
1. There must be some way to calibrate the effect of high and low run environments just like it is possible to calculate the advantage that a relief pitcher has in ERA.

The relief pitcher advantage has been estimated statistically, not calculated. According to Bill James, "The Relief Pitcher's ERA Advantage," collected in John Thorn, ed., The National Pastime (Warner, 1987), the relief pitcher advantage 1956-1970 was .15 to .25.

Some correlations between run environments (league or ballpark average run rates) and adjusted run rates for individual pitchers (ERA+ or RA+) can be estimated statistically. --given data and software

2. If so, wouldn't it be obvious that it would be incorporated into ERA+ ratings?

No. There is no singular "it" to be incorporated. Many correlations can be estimated. Infinitely many, in ordinary terms where correlation need not be linear.

Anyway, what should be invariant? That is, calibrate ERA+ to what?

To the probability that an average pitcher would replicate or surpass the achievement?
To the "ease" of the pitcher's achievement? (Dr. Chaleeko)
To a team's probability of winning when it uses the pitcher? (sunnyday interpreted by Phillybooster, for win rate is the focus of "Pythagorean" sabermetrics.)

Bill James estimated the difference between relief and start ERA for pitchers who did both kinds of work. That isn't unequivocally related to either the ease or the value of their two kinds of work.
   104. Paul Wendt Posted: December 18, 2004 at 01:34 AM (#1028463)
Quoting myself:
According to Bill James, "The Relief Pitcher's ERA Advantage," collected in John Thorn, ed., The National Pastime (Warner, 1987), the relief pitcher advantage 1956-1970 was .15 to .25.
. . . James estimated the difference between relief and start ERA for pitchers who did both kinds of work. That isn't unequivocally related to either the ease or the value of their two kinds of work.

I mentioned "the probability that an average pitcher would replicate or surpass [a pitcher's] achievement." There is an obvious interpretation of the old Bill James study along those lines.

Given a pitcher's relief ERA, his most likely ERA as a starter would be ERAr + 0.2. Given a pitcher's start ERA, his most likely ERA as a reliever would be ERAs - 0.2.
   105. KJOK Posted: December 18, 2004 at 03:43 AM (#1028645)
Hopefully this will shed more light than confusion on this topic. THere are several things that can be at work when comparing starters vs. relievers ERA. The major ones I can think of are:

1. Same group of pitchers both starting and relieving. Think of this as: Bob Gibson would have been even MORE dominant in 1968 if he only had to pitch a couple innings at a time OR John Smoltz is even BETTER as a reliever than as a starter. Basically measuring the fact that pitchers can PERFORM better ERA-wise if they only have to pitch for an inning or two vs. having to pitch as a starter.

2. One group of starters vs. one group of relievers, but same IP, Hits, HR's, BB allowed, etc. Relievers will have lower ERA, even if the PERFORMANCE of the two groups is the same. This is the "mid-inning relieving and assigning of runs" effect. Back in the 19th century and the first part of the 20th century, this was not a factor.

3. One group of starters vs. one group of relievers, actual performance difference. This is the impact of differing QUALITY between starters and relievers. In the 19th century and the first part of the 20th century, starting pitchers were BETTER PITCHERS than relief pitchers, so the ERA's of starters were always LOWER than the ERA's of relievers.

For Modern times, the trick in comparing starters vs. relievers is separating out #3 effects from #1 and #2 effects above...
   106. Brent Posted: December 18, 2004 at 04:08 AM (#1028666)
1941 Ballot:

Two all-time greats and an outstanding pitcher head up this year’s ballot.

1. Babe Ruth –
Best player ever. One way to think about his greatness is to ask where he would rank if his career had ended prematurely (as happened to Dobie Moore and Ross Youngs). According to my system (which is more peak-oriented than most)
- if Ruth’s career had ended after the 1918 season, I would have ranked him # 12 on this year’s ballot, based solely on the 4 seasons he spent predominantly as a pitcher;
- if his career had ended after 1919, I’d have ranked him # 2 on this year’s ballot, based on his Red Sox years;
- if his career had ended after 1923, I’d have ranked him # 1, ahead of Hornsby.

2. Rogers Hornsby –
I agree with Bill James that Hornsby has been overrated; Eddie Collins was better. But RH is still one of the top 30 players of all time.

3. Dazzy Vance –
As good a choice as anyone as the best pitcher of the 20s.

4. Hughie Jennings –
According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Better peak than most HOMers.

5. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

6. Burleigh Grimes –
I was surprised at how little support Ol’ Stubblebeard received on last year’s ballot. He has a lot of little pluses that don’t show up in ERA+; -- he didn’t benefit from great defensive support; he was a pretty good hitter for a pitcher (OPS+ of 58); a good combination of peak and career value. I recommend that you take another look.

7. José de la Caridad Méndez –
It’s clear to me, just from looking at the rosters, that the Cuban League Méndez dominated from 1908-14 was very good. The league usually consisted of only 3 or 4 teams, and his opponents included John Henry Lloyd, Smokey Joe Williams, Cristóbal Torriente, Louis Santop, Grant Johnson, Rube Foster, Pete Hill, Dolf Luque, Cannonball Redding, Bruce Petway, Spot Poles, and many other outstanding Cuban and American players.

8. Spottswood Poles –
IMO, a better hitter than Carey or Roush; a better fielder than Roush

9. Roger Bresnahan –
His peak towers over Schang’s.

10. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey, but I’ve rated him higher because of his years at 3B.

11. Clark Griffith –
It’s tough to sort out the pitchers, but the more information I look at, the better Griffith looks.

12. Dick Redding –
Career value similar to Coveleski’s.

13. George J. Burns –
Outstanding leadoff hitter; 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

14. Urban Shocker –
15. Fielder Jones –

Two underappreciated players.

Other new arrivals:

Pie Traynor –
Not quite good enough to make my ballot, I rate Traynor at # 21. A couple of comments:
- As I explained on the PT thread, Traynor’s defensive reputation was better than indicated by his WS and WARP fielding statistics. In this case, I believe the reputation is more accurate and that there are flaws in the analytical measures.
- I don’t see a very large difference between Traynor and Groh. Groh had a higher peak and a modest advantage in hitting, but Traynor played 564 more games at 3B. If Groh were still eligible for this year’s ballot, I’d have him at # 13, just a little ahead of Traynor.

Andy Cooper –
I tentatively have him placed at # 35 and hope that more information will become available.

Earle Combs –
He was a good player, but his career was short by HOM standards – doesn’t make my top 50.

Sad Sam Jones –
Had a couple of outstanding seasons, but isn’t close to my top 50.

Top 10 not on my ballot:

Joe Sewell –
I have him at # 32. I don’t believe in grading on a curve.

Eppa Rixey –
I have him at # 17. He made my ballot last year, but slipped off this year. A good pitcher, but nothing screams HOMer.

George Sisler –
# 29. He clearly was very good, but his position on last year’s ballot suggests that he’s being overrated. For example, I can’t see any rationale for ranking Sisler ahead of Duffy, who had both a better peak and more career value.

Jake Beckley –
Not in my top 50. Undistinguished.

George Van Haltren –
# 25. Not quite enough peak to make my ballot.
   107. KJOK Posted: December 18, 2004 at 04:30 AM (#1028687)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. BABE RUTH, RF/LF/P. .852 OWP. 1,594 RCAP. 10,616 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Only 2 all-star games and wasn’t much of a fielder. The slacker….

2. ROGERS HORNSBY, 2B/SS. .787 OWP. 1,904 RCAP. 9,475 PAs. Def: FAIR. In the top three all-time for 2nd basemen.

3. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. .THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

4. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s.

5. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane/Dickey, except for maybe Santop. Still best eligible catcher.

6. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

7. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

8. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

9. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

10. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

11. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

12. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons blow away Beckley’s best. Perhaps best firstbaseman in the whole 1900-1920 time period.

13. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. If Chance isn’t the best firstbaseman 1900-1920’s, then Taylor probably is.

14. PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

15.DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.
   108. KJOK Posted: December 18, 2004 at 04:30 AM (#1028688)

DAZZY VANCE, P. 251 RSAA, 185 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 125 ERA+ in 2,966 innings. I have him as practically the RH twin of Rube Waddell.

EARLE COMBS, CF. .644 OWP. 221 RCAP. 6,509 PAs. Def: POOR. Excellent offensive CF’er, but not as good as Browning, not a long career, and his defense does him no favors.


DAVE BANCROFT, SS. .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Much better hitter than Maranville. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber. Just off the ballot.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

HACK WILSON, CF. .685 OWP. 325 RCAP. 5,556 PAs. Def: POOR. Very close to Browning, and similar to Lip Pike, but really not better than Tiernan.

SAM RICE, RF. .572 OWP. NEGATIVE 2 RCAP. 10,245 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Nice long career, but not enough offense to match up with other candidates. Harry Hooper clone.

BURLEIGH GRIMES, P. 129 RSAA, 175 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 107 ERA+ in 4,180 innings. Less value than even Quinn.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being much higher.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times. Hit like Ken Williams, only played longer and played 2B.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that. Not sure he was really better than teammate Dolph Luque, so he falls short on the ballot.
   109. Paul Wendt Posted: December 18, 2004 at 04:08 PM (#1029021)
1. Same group of pitchers both starting and relieving.

Oops. I double-checked and found that I made a big mistake in reference to the Bill James study. James discarded those pitchers who worked significantly in both roles (more than 10% of 1956-1970 appearances), and those whose total workload was below a threshold. For his population of starters and relievers (entirely distinct), he classified by hit and walk rates and found the difference .15 to .25 between start-ERA and relief-ERA in each class.

So that study focuses on the mid-inning effect:
2. One group of starters vs. one group of relievers, but same IP, Hits, HR's, BB allowed, etc. Relievers will have lower ERA, even if the PERFORMANCE of the two groups is the same. This is the "mid-inning relieving and assigning of runs" effect.

The resolution is limited to hit and walk rates, so there may be some residual pitcher quality differences (KJOK 3.).
   110. Patrick W Posted: December 19, 2004 at 02:36 AM (#1029804)
The top of my ballot looks like it’s suffering from that ‘Shiny New Toy’ problem.

In the process of completely revising my WARP analyses. Re-starting from scratch, I’m over halfway done with my list of 140 players (75 HOMers). By next election (when it will matter), the reanalysis will be fully reflected on the ballot.

1. Babe Ruth (n/a), NY (A), RF / LF (’15-’35) (1941) – Over half of his value was wrapped up in those two monster seasons, and he had quite a bit of good luck (or good defense) on the mound. It looks like a promising start, but he petered out before he was 25. There’s just not enough career for me. I wonder what happened to him. Hmm?? What’s that? Hitting Register? Ohhhh. Never mind.
2. Rogers Hornsby (n/a), StL (N), 2B (’16-’35) (1941) – 2930 actual hits, which should be the de facto HOM Standard.
3. John Beckwith (5), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). Bumped up upon MLE re-analysis.
4. Dazzy Vance (n/a), Bkn (N), SP (’22-’35) – Best Pitcher on the Ballot. Whether there should be this much separation between Dazzy & the pack is an open question for next week.
5. George Van Haltren (1), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – So close to election before the superstar surge, after things return to normal he’s not even top 10, having fallen behind 6 others who were eligible eight years ago. I don’t get it.
6. Jimmy Ryan (2), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – His chances were slim when VH was close.
7. Harry Hooper (3), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
8. Joe Sewell (6), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) -- Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys.
9. Ben Taylor (8), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
10. Jake Beckley (9), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Solid numbers forever.
11. Fielder Jones (7), Chic.(A), CF / RF (’96-’08) (1930) – On the ballot solely to crush my consensus scores.
12. Rube Waddell (10), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – The K’s still impress after all this time.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – Hopefully in ’42.
13. Eppa Rixey (11), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings. Seems more impressive this week, thanks to Grimes.
--. Mordecai Brown, Chic. (N), SP (’03-’16) –
14. Urban Shocker (12), St.L (A), SP (’16-’27) – Solid pitcher, deserves his place among all the other pitchers here getting more votes.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) – Another too soon pick, but he’ll get in eventually.
--. Joe Start, Atlantic-Bkn (NABBP)-N.Y.Mut.(NL), 1B (‘60-’86) –
15. Wally Schang (13), Phila. – NY (A), C (’13-’31) – Small difference between him & Bresnahan, but a) clearly Wally is the better in my mind, and b) there are many evenly ranked players near the same overall value that create quite a distance between the two on my ballot.

Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.
Clark Griffith – Bumped off this year.
George Sisler – Jennings had the better career.
Tommy Leach – Because I’ll get yelled at for having too many outfielders. Because of his 3B-play, he could be in line for a bump when I’m done number-crunching.

Did y’all get a chance to read Jay Jaffe’s article re the hitters on the HOF ballot this week? Of interest to some might be the Average HOF’ers WARP numbers by position. Also, some more cryptic clues on the recent change in WARP.

Jennings, Griffith, Sisler & Leach were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   111. Kelly in SD Posted: December 19, 2004 at 10:02 AM (#1030231)
1941 Ballot Time:
I adjusted win shares for scheduled season length to approximate a 154 game season.
My rankings are based on weighted totals of win shares for a player’s career, best win shares total in 3 straight years (peak), best win shares total in his 7 best seasons (prime), and win shares per 162 games. I compare players to a mythical standard – a mix of Cobb and Wagner. Using Ruth would distort things too much.
Also, I consider the number of times a player was the best at his position in his league and in the majors from STATS and win shares perspectives and the competition the player had to face.
Negro League players are matched to the white players(s) they seem to most mirror after reading the player threads for the subjective judgment as well as various MLEs.
Unless I feel a player is an automatic HoMer, they will start as low as reasonable on my ballot because I rather would delay a person’s entry than enshrine someone because they are this year’s shiny new toy. Where do they fit in terms of the ballot, their time, and the roughly 85 years of baseball history we are dealing with.

1. Babe Ruth : Nothing witty. One measure of his greatness: Ruth had more Win Shares in his best 7 seasons than most players – even many electees – have in their career.

2. Rogers Hornsby : Great hitter, adequate fielder. Must have been a huge pain in the ass for him to keep getting traded – that and the fact he would pee in the showers after a game. I wonder if that is what keeps Reggie Sanders on the move?

All the comments following have not been adjusted for Hornsby’s and Ruth’s numbers so most of them should be 2 ranks lower than what is written. No time to change things.

3. Mickey Welch: Please see posts 107, 108 on the discussion thread for 1939 for my reasons.
Going over the GREAT list provided by Esteban post 199 in the 39 Ballot Discussion Thread, I noticed something that might be a clue as to why Welch's ERA+ is lower than other 80s pitchers. The following is the number of times each HoMer pitched for a team whose defense max'd out the Win Shares defensive percentage:
Spalding 1 time (the only year for which we have defensive win shares)
Ward: twice - 1880, 1882
Galvin: twice - 1879, 1885
Keefe: four - 1883, 1884, 1885, 1892
Radbourn: five - 1882, 1883, 1884, 1889, 1890
Clarkson: eight - 1885, 1886, 1887, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1892 (both teams he pitched for this year), 1894
Caruthers: five - 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888
Rusie: once - 1894

and Welch ??: one time - 1885.

4. Pete Browning - The best hitter not enshrined. Adjusting for season length, he has the second most peak win shares (Jennings 1st), the most prime win shares, and the highest per 162 games. His OPS+ (162) is the highest among eligibles. Only Brouthers, Jackson, and Cobb have higher career OPS+ (170, 170, 167). 8 time STATS all-star. 5 time Win Shares all-star. 2 time major league all-star.

5. Charley Jones – I give full-credit for his black-balled years (b/c he asked for his pay on the day it was due instead of waiting for the first day back at home after a road trip as was custom). For his blackballed years, I credit him the average of the 6 years surrounding the suspension. Fourth best peak, 3rd best prime, tied for 2nd best per 162 games (Chance and McGraw). 5 STATS, 4 Win Shares league, 3 win shares majors all-star teams (not counting blackballed years). Third best OPS+ (149) among eligibles - only Browning and Cravath ahead.

6. Hugh Duffy - No, not just guys from the 1880s. 3rd highest peak (Jennings and Browning), 3rd highest prime (Browning, C. Jones), 6th highest career. A key member of the great Boston teams of the 1890s. An "A+" centerfielder - an integral part of one the most defensively dominant teams ever. 4 retro gold glvoes. STATS twice, Win Shares 5 times league and majors All-Star. Only Cravath has higher black ink score.

7. Cupid Childs - a slight drop. His numbers are not as impressive as some players below, but he was the best at his position for 7 years in 1890s, with a 2nd and two 3rds for good measure. His defense ranked as a "B+". Part of a defensive group in Cleveland that maxed out on win shares 5 times. He still has the 7th best peak (I know the 1890 AA was weak, but I don't know how much to discount), and 7th best prime. Regarding the 1890 season, Childs earned 31 WS in the AA. The only other 2nd baseman within 10 WS was Hub Collins (28) in the NL, then McPhee with 21 in the NL. The Players League was led by Bierbauer with 20. The National League was weak as well as most of the best players were in the Players League. Childs is still the best 2nd baseman that year.
His .416 OBP is second only to McGraw.

8. Tommy Leach - Maybe the best defensive player on the ballot. "A+" defense at both 3rd and CF with a combined 7 gold gloves. He and Wagner were key reasons that so many different pitchers could have great years pitching for Pittsburgh in the oughts. 5th highest career, 9th highest prime among eligibles. 3 time STATS, 5 times win shares all-star. Could see his position drop soon...

9. Big Surprise - George Van Haltren - Not as high a peak or prime as Duffy, but the best adjusted career of any eligible. Highest career, 4th highest prime, 7th highest per/162 games. Could run well and win shares sees him as deserving 2 gold glvoes in outfield. Only 2 win shares all-stars, but he was competing against Hamilton, Delahanty, Burkett, Kelley, Keeler, and Duffy to name a few for one of 3 spots in the outfield.
   112. Kelly in SD Posted: December 19, 2004 at 10:04 AM (#1030233)
10. Ed Roush - 8th highest career total, 13th best peak, 11th best prime. Win shares "A-" centerfielder with 5 gold gloves. 126 OPS+ is much higher than Carey's 107. 9 seasons of 20 win shares and 3 of 30. 5 time STATS and Win Shares league all-star, 2 time majors All-Star.

11. George Burns (the Giant) -I think Burns was a better leadoff man and had a higher peak and prime than Carey, if only by a bit. 11th best peak, 8th highest prime. 2 times STATS all-star, 5 times Win Shares all-star, 3 times Win Shares major league all-star. 10 seasons of 20 win shares, 3 seasons of 30. Fantastic at taking walks. 11 straight years without an off year.

12. Jose Mendez – first time on my ballot, I think. While I am hesitant about how my system integrates non-white players, Mendez does come out significantly better than any other 20th century pitcher. Seems to have a Jennings-esque peak and his prime years score is quite good as well.

13. Vic Willis - another surprise - 4 times win shares league all-star. 8 years over 20 ws, 5 over 25, 2 over 30. Highest prime among eligible pitchers - post 1893. 2nd highest career (Rixey). One time best pitcher in league. 9 top 10s in wins and innings pitched. 5 top 10s in ERA and ERA+ with 2 firsts in ERA+.

14. Second Big Surprise - Hughie Jennings. I purposely have my prime at 7 years to prevent short career guys from being too high, but Jennings already had the highest peak before the adjustments. Highest peak and 5th highest prime slide him onto the ballot despite a poor career total. Great defender at short - key to the dominant Oriole defenses of the 1890s. 3 times best Shortstop by STATS and 4 times win shares.

15. Gahhh - Frank Chance - Chance, Fournier, Konetchy, or Sisler - Chance 5 times best major league (03-07), Konetchy 4 times best majors (09-11, 16, and argue 12), Fournier 4 times best majors (15, 23-25), Sisler 5 times best majors (17, 19-22). Everyone had b/t 231 win shares - Fournier and 292 - Sisler. Chance had the best per/162 games. Fournier had highest peak. Sisler had highest prime. Sisler had longest career, but second half of his career matches Jimmy Ryan’s for disastrous follow-up to great start (sinus infection vs. train wreck). This year, Chance’s high WS per 162 games is 3rd behind Browning and McGraw and his per/648 PA is the best. Anchored the winningest team over a 1- to 7- year period.

drop-offs: Konetchy and Fielder Jones

People not on Ballot:
Beckley - Not enough peak. Love the looong prime. New pennants added figures have to be added to the system.
Rube Waddell: Closer to the ballot than I thought he would be - closer than Rixey or Faber. Career didn't last long enough. Problems with unearned runs discolor some of the greatness, especially when you consider he was allowing fewer balls in play.

Clark Griffith - damn close, at one point was at the bottom, but Willis pushed him off. The lack of BIG seasons in the 1890s hurts him - did his manager work him less than other big aces for a reason?

Sewell - I was really surprised by this. He had great positional leader numbers - 8 times best in league, 5 in majors. Everything was very good, but nothing was standout. I don’t think the AL was strong in shortstops during the 20s.
There is a knot of shortstops behind Jennings. Long, Bancroft, Sewell, and Tinker are within 14 places of each other among all the eligibles. Adjusted for season length, Long has the most win shares for career, peak and prime. Tinker has the best per 648 PA, Sewell the best per 162 games. Sewell has the best OPS+. All were great fielders, though Sewell may the least best of the four. I don’t see enough difference between the four to place one on the ballot, to say one is a HoMer over the other three. Sewell is close...

Rixey – Behind Mendez, Willis, Redding, Mays, Shocker, Cooper, Griffith, Vance, Grimes, and Waddell (at least). I like the 6 times top 4 pitchers in the league. Don't like never the best in the league. Weak peak: ranks 13th among eligible post-93 pitchers. Weak prime 11th among eligibles. I know he didn't have great defenses behind him, but my partial career breakdown seems to show he didn't face the heavy lifting - Alexander, Luque, and Donohue did that

Grimes: Very close, but my system sees he and Cooper very close and if both could not go on, neither would. 5 WS all-stars with one first. Poor /per 300 IP score. Great black/grey ink. Grimes is the closest.

Beckwith : was going to be on the ballot. But then I compared him a little more to Dobie Moore and saw Moore as the better candidate. Among the short-er career players, there is not a comparable white player to him. But since I compare Moore to Jennings and have Moore just a couple of spots lower (and off the ballot), I could not see a justification to place Beckwith on the ballot and not Moore. Since Moore is not on, neither is Beckwith.
It very easily could have been Monroe, Beckwith, and Moore in some order behind Jennings. Everyone is very close.

Newbies without a vote:
Traynor: Does not make my top 50. He shows as the 5th best candidate for 3rd base behind Leach, McGraw, Williamson, and Lyons...

Combs: Roughly the tenth best centerfielder in my system.

Vance: Vance comes in at the edges of my ballot right next to Grimes. Relatively short career with average seasons mixed with all-star performances. Strikeouts don’t grab my attention. Still trying to find the right balance between pitchers and hitters for the ballot.

Sad Sam Jones: He is better than Hooks Dauss.
   113. Kelly in SD Posted: December 19, 2004 at 10:06 AM (#1030234)
I just finished a list of the top second baseman in each league by win shares for each season from 1876 through 2004. Should I post to the second basemen thread or ...

Shortstop list is next.
   114. Guapo Posted: December 19, 2004 at 04:16 PM (#1030315)
Coal in their stockings:

Hughie Jennings- Ranks around #20 right now. Made my PHOM in 1912. May get elected before I get him back on the ballot.

Clark Griffith- I have voted for him before, took another look at him, was not impressed, and dumped him. There are no pitchers off my ballot whose election I would be inclined to advocate, with the possible exception of Mendez.

George Sisler- Falls to #16 this week with the addition of Ruth and Hornsby. Four amazing years, but let’s remember context when comparing him to Konetchy and Fournier.

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career and was never one of the truly great players in the league. I found an old thread that compared him to Mark Grace, which sounds about right to me. Will never make my ballot.

Tommy Leach- probably #17 right now. May well make my PHOM, as I continue to build it.

George Van Haltren: The lowest ranked member of the outfield glut for me, he surged ahead of the other contenders for reasons I don’t understand.I much prefer Duffy. Will never make my ballot.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

Hugh Duffy- PHOM 1912. I’d love to see him elected and should probably try and find a way to get him on the ballot.

Mickey Welch- Still on the radar. Don’t see him as particularly more compelling than McCormick and Mullane.

John Beckwith- Not fully convinced. I want to see how he compares to Dick Lundy.

Pete Browning- I understand why others might support him, but I have six eligible centerfielders ranked ahead of him.

Pie Traynor- A legitimate candidate- I have him at #18 right now and may move him up.
   115. Guapo Posted: December 19, 2004 at 04:17 PM (#1030316)
Hmmm, was my ballot eaten? Trying again:

1. Babe Ruth- Had played himself into a no-brainer PhoMer by 1921, 1922 at the latest. All he did after that was hit another 475 HRs.
2. Rogers Hornsby- Add me to the chorus of people who have him just slightly behind Collins. I’m not real comfortable with that, though... ranks with Wagner as one of the greatest players the NL has seen so far.

3. Joe Sewell- The American League is about 40 years old right now. Sewell has been the best shortstop for about 25% of the league’s history. His credentials clearly meet the standards of the HOM.
4. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM.
5. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence.

We have elected only 3 National League infielders who played a significant amount in the 20th Century. (Dahlen, Wagner, Groh). Hornsby will make 4.

6. Burleigh Grimes- Slightly ahead of Rixey, who I had slightly ahead of Coveleski. I’m getting a little nervous about the rate with which we keep electing pitchers, 5 of our last 10 inductees... Both Grimes and Rixey look like they should make it eventually.
7. Eppa Rixey-
8. George J. Burns- - OBP master- great leadoff hitter.
9. Hack Wilson- My low consensus scores are fueled by my love of high peak guys. Here’s one of the all-time greats. Yeah, the flashy stats are skewed somewhat- but check out those walk totals. This guy was one seriously well-rounded offensive powerhouse, and a CF to boot. The Lip Pike of the 1920s-1930s. (That should get him some votes)
10. Dick Redding- Not convinced Rogan was better than him.
11. Jack Fournier- - Similar player to Cravath, had a great 5 year run. If I have to pick one first baseman to fill our first base dearth, this is the guy.
12. Gavvy Cravath- Had a great 5 year run at the top of the league.
13. Ed Konetchy - Another great first baseman, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played.
14. Ross Youngs- This is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.” Nine full-time seasons, career avg. of .322 and OBP of .399. Led NY to 4 straight pennants from 1921-1924.
15. Fielder Jones- A superior player at the turn of the century, great centerfielder, underrated because he played in a very hostile offensive environment.
   116. Andrew M Posted: December 19, 2004 at 06:01 PM (#1030450)
1941 Ballot

1. (new) Babe Ruth. When he wasn’t pitching or hitting he found time to steal home 10 times in his career. I would like to have seen that.

2. (new) Rogers Hornsby. Could also hit some. Could not, as far as I know, pitch.

3. (2) Geo. Van Haltren. He has both the career numbers (his 12 (284) and 15 (335) year unadjusted WS totals are better than any other eligible position player not listed above, as is his 13 seasons with 20+ WS) and more peak than he is sometimes given credit for when you consider many of his best years are in short seasons. In my adjustment to 162 games he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him credit.

4. (3) Clark Griffith. The first of four pitchers on my ballot, and though I can see putting them in any order, Griffith for now gets the nod for having a better peak than Rixey and more career than Vance or Waddell. .620 career win pct. for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams is impressive as is his 121 ERA+ and 1895-1901 peak.

5. (7) Hugh Duffy. The best of the high peak, 8000 plate appearance, 10-12 quality year outfielders. Impressive peak/prime numbers over 3, 5, 7, 10 years (incl. 8 seasons over 25 adjWS/8.9 WARP), good black and gray ink, a+ CF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Rapid decline around age 33, but enough career before that to merit serious consideration.

6. (5) Larry Doyle. Higher career OPS+ (126) than all but a handful of 2B. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. Also captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. I assume John McGraw would not have played him at 2B if his fielding was not adequate for the position. Above Childs on my ballot because he has a longer career with only slightly less peak and I am not significantly discounting the NL during his era.

7. (10) Eppa Rixey. Bumped him up this week. Throw out the years he was fighting in WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 (but for 1920) and as high as 143. ERA+ of 115 in 4500 career innings is very impressive to me.

8. (6) Edd Roush. Very similar to Hugh Duffy. Arguably the best player in the NL during his peak (1917-1920.)

9. (8) Tommy Leach. I’ve got him at 352 aWS with 7 seasons above 25 WS and 7.9 WARP. Excellent glove at 3B and CF. I wish he had played more than 955 games at 3B, but still worthy of serious consideration despite a 109 OPS+.

10. (new) Dazzy Vance. A slightly better version of Rube Waddell with even worse run support, and as I’ve had Waddell on my ballot every year, I can’t see leaving Vance off. ERA+ (125) and DERA push him ahead of guys like Mays, Cooper, and Cicotte on my ballot. I see him possibly moving up on future ballots, but I’ll start him here.

11. (9) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134. Would be higher but for concerns about his general effectiveness at winning games and preventing unearned runs.

12. (12) Wally Schang. Like Bresnahan, it seems to me that where you slot him depends upon what type of position bonus you give catchers. Both Schang and Bresnahan were tremendously productive hitters per PA; neither appears to have been an exceptional fielder. Bresnahan looks like the better hitter, but Schang gets the nod for catching longer.

13. (12) George J. Burns. Once he became a starter in 1913, he averaged 25.6 WS a year for the next 10 years, which, I think, is the highest 10 year stretch of any eligible position player who isn’t Ruth or Hornsby (and is due in part to his remarkable durability. By my count he missed only 14 games in those 10 years.) Worthless fact: He has more steals of home than anyone not enshrined in the HoM.

14. (13) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

15. (15) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career begins to look long enough HoM worthy to me. He already has the peak numbers. If you told me he was the best eligible IF other than Hornsby I wouldn’t argue, but I can’t quite find the data to get there.

Next 5 (more or less)
16. Vic Willis.
17. Jimmy Ryan
18. Hughie Jennings
19. Roger Bresnahan
20. George Sisler

Required disclosures:
Joe Sewell. I am surprised there is no love among this group for Herman Long. His hitting numbers aren’t great (-27 career BRAA, 94 OPS+), but both his career WARP1 (108.5 career, 14 seasons at 5.9 and above) and WS (314 total adjusted to 162 game seasons) are very impressive, and he’s got a three year period (1891-1893) when he was about as good as any position player in the game. I’ve had Sewell on my ballot since he became eligible, but the more I’ve looked at him the more I’m not convinced he’s more worthy than Long or Bancroft or Moore or Jennings or Pie Traynor.

Hughie Jennings. 5 truly great seasons, 7 not so great seasons. Is it enough? Not yet.

George Sisler. Was on my ballot in previous years. Might come back again in the future. He’s got a good 7 year run and a decent career, but so do a lot of these guys.

Jake Beckley. Behind Sisler, Chance, and Taylor on my list of 1B. He’s in the eligible candidates team photo, but not on the ballot. Reevaluating the 1B position is on my list of things that need to get done.

New Guys:

Pie Traynor. I have him next to Bancroft in the mid 20s. Slightly below Sewell and above Evers.
   117. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 19, 2004 at 06:39 PM (#1030491)
1. (new) Babe Ruth. When he wasn’t pitching or hitting he found time to steal home 10 times in his career. I would like to have seen that.

You probably would not have wanted to see him the other fifty times when he attempted to steal home, though. :-)
   118. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: December 20, 2004 at 12:34 AM (#1030773)
I don't know, John - I think a Ruth steal of home would be entertaining no matter the result. :)

Being honest here: due to computer access issues and the "No kidding" effects of this issue, I didn't really review the returning candidates this year, just the newbies. That won't happen next time. Captain Obvious and Sergeant No **** make my PHoM this year.

1. Babe Ruth (new)

2. Rogers Hornsby (new)

3. Joe Sewell (3) I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league, although WARP 3 might over-correct for this. Not the most sure-fire HoMer ever, but on this ballot, he ranks highly. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Tommy Leach (4) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates, has one of the best career arguments, and not a bad peak at all. I'm not so sure that the 1900s aren't the underrepresented decade. Made my PHoM in 1940.

5. Dazzy Vance (new) Clearly has the best peak among pitching candidates, and his career totals are not embarassing at all.

6. Cupid Childs (5) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my HoM in 1932.

7. Bill Monroe (6) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, and if Joe’s suggestions on his WS are accurate, he’s worthy of induction. Well ahead of DeMoss. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. George Van Haltren (7) Ahead of Ryan, but not by much. Either way, they're close enough that I don't understand why GVH is significantly ahead in the balloting. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(8A Max Carey)

9. Dick Redding (8) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not.

10. Jimmy Ryan (9) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.

(10A Red Faber, 10B Sam Thompson)

11. John Beckwith (10) Oh, great, another infielder. Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around. Might move up.

12. Hughie Jennings (11) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.

13. Jose Mendez (12) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t match up to Redding.

(13B Rube Foster)

14. Eppa Rixey (13) I think Vance's peak advantage is more telling than Rixey's career one...this week.

15. Spotswood Poles (14) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good. Does anyone like him as much as Bill (might make his Top 100) James?

16. Bobby Veach (15) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
17. Larry Doyle. (16) Amazingly similar to Ed Konetchy, but definitely a worse fielder. Is the 2B offense better than the 1B Defense?
18. Rube Waddell (17) Every time I check the numbers recently he moves up, but still not that much meat on the bones.
19. Ben Taylor (18) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
20. Jake Beckley. (19) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
21. Clark Griffith (20) Unlike Waddell, his numbers keep working against him. I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers,
22. Dave Bancroft (21) Not a major embarrassment to the HoF (and James said as much), but not much to separate him from the MI glut.
23. Harry Hooper (22) Similar to Wheat in some ways, but not as good. Pretty low OPS+ for a corner OF candidate.
24. Roger Bresnahan (23) I was underrating catchers, and didn’t realize how good his CF years were. But the career’s still too short.
25. Burleigh Grimes (24) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, doesn't measure up to Rixey and Faber.
26. George Sisler (25) His peak is good, but doesn't stick out like Jennings', and his career value isn't anything special.
27. Vic Willis (26) Does well by Pennants Added, did have a lot of pretty good years.
28. Pie Traynor (new) Subject to change, but as Joe pointed out, there isn't much to seperate him from Cross. Across-the-board, definitely behind Sewell.
29. Lave Cross (27) The lesser Beckley, but I had been too harsh on him.
30. Charley Jones (28) Hard to be sure how much credit to give for the blacklisted years.
   119. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: December 20, 2004 at 12:57 AM (#1030803)
1941 ballot:

1. Babe Ruth: 20 seasons plus an eye-opener at the beginning and a nightcap at the end. 17 All-star quality seasons, 9 Stats MVPs and 1 Cy.

2. Rogers Hornsby: 7 Stats MVPs, ties Wagner for 2nd behind Ruth. 13 All-star seasons also ties Wagner, but for 4th, behind Ruth, Cobb (16) & E. Collins (14). This is rarefied air.

----- Immense Yawning Chasm ---

3. Mickey Welch: Kelly from SD has made the case for him better than I ever could – see posts 107-108 in the 1939 discussion thread. (PHOM 1929)

4. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. I like the gray ink & counting stats. No eye-popping seasons, but an all-star caliber player for 10 years.(PHOM 1926)

5. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

6. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after – still, was the STATS all-star 1B in 1925, and a probable runner-up to Gehrig in ’27. Good black & gray ink. I’d think peak voters would really like him. Looks like some do, some don’t. (PHOM 1938)

7. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, above-average offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

8. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense. (PHOM 1940)

9. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W% and quite a few of his teams were mediocre at best. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons.

10. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

11. Wally Schang
12. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1932)
The HOM needs catchers. Wally edges the Duke on the basis of playing time & durability. Their defense is comparable, and Schang’s offense isn’t that much below.

13. Tommy Leach: A+ defense at two important positions, solid offense for the era. Pennants added numbers help his case.

14. Dick Redding: Similar in different ways to some on- and off-ballot pitchers: Griffith, Vance, Cooper. I’ve spotted him in-between, which seems about right.

15. Dazzy Vance: Dominant strikeout pitcher. Waddell without the baggage.

Formerly on the ballot, now waiting in the wings: Larry Doyle, John Beckwith, Vic Willis, Rube Waddell, Carl Mays, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Cupid Childs, Spots Poles.

Required explanations:
Jennings: Exceptional peak, but little else.
Rixey: Behind Faber, who was 15th on my ballot in ’39.
Van Haltren: Still don’t see why he’s been getting the level of support he has. Good career, not a standout player. As someone else noted sometime, there is no greatness here.
   120. Ken Fischer Posted: December 20, 2004 at 01:44 AM (#1030853)
1941 Ballot

includes my top 30

1-Babe Ruth 756 WS
He’s the best ever…no discussion.

2-Rogers Hornsby 502 WS
Rogers would be number one almost any other year.

3-Pete Browning 225 WS
I keep Pete at the top after Rogers & Babe. He does have a down side. But he was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

4-Dick Redding
Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. The Cannonball shut out Smoky Joe Williams twice in 1920…including a 5-0 win at Ebbets Field.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

6-Wally Schang 245 WS
He continues to move up my list after more research. I’ve come to the conclusion that Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. Wally had an interesting career that spanned the dead ball era into the middle of the live ball era.

7-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

8-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
Grimes matches up well with the recently elected Faber. His 270 wins and a high Grey Ink are impressive.

9-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
After more research moved Jennings up a few slots. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

10-Sam Rice 327 WS
Wheat and Clarke are his comps. Rice ranks high on the triple list. He had success in both the dead & live eras.

11-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

13-Joe Sewell 277 WS
Very hard to strike out and had a tough act to follow (Chapman’s death). He made position change (to third base) late in his career and continued to still have great numbers.

14-Jose Mendez
John Holway says some records credit Mendez with a 44-2 record in 1909. He was considered the best black pitcher of his time.

15-Carl Mays 256 WS
Penalized for Chapman incident and pitching in a high run-producing era. Mays was hard to get along with but was a gamer. He had strong numbers for 3 teams spread out across his entire 15-year career.

16-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
17-Rube Waddell 240 WS
18-Roger Bresnahan 231 WS
19-Lave Cross 278 WS
20-Cupid Childs 238 WS
21-Edd Roush 314 WS
22-Bobby Mathews 158 WS
23-Pie Traynor 274 WS
24-Rabbit Maranville 302 WS
25-George Sisler 292 WS
26-Hugh Duffy 295 WS
27-Clark Griffith 273 WS
28-Tony Mullane 399 WS
29-Dazzy Vance 241 WS
30-Sol White
   121. Jeff M Posted: December 20, 2004 at 04:22 AM (#1031090)
1941 Ballot

1. Ruth, Babe

2. Hornsby, Rogers

3. Vance, Dazzy -- Solid in both WS and WARP1… better on peak than career (but career looks nice in WARP1). Had some fantastic seasons and really only one bad one (1932). Consistent winner, despite what appears to be weak defense and run support.

4. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 349 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

5. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

6. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

7. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

8. Waddell, Rube – I’ve been holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

9. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

10. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor in the outfield.

11. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

12. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

13. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good normalized counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

14. Rice, Sam – Mostly career, with little peak, and WS likes him much better than WARP. Really a one-dimensional hitter, but he was very good in that dimension.

15. Bresnahan, Roger -- In my system he was quite a bit better as a hitter than Charlie Bennett, though certainly not as good defensively (and not a full-time catcher). If you stack Bresnahan's WS and WARP1 numbers against the catchers actually elected to the HoF, he looks very solid. But then again, he wasn’t a full-time catcher.

Required Disclosures:

Sewell, Joe – He’s #20 in my system, essentially tied with Larry Doyle and Tommy Leach, and just slightly ahead of Jake Beckley. A very solid player but not spectacular enough to crack the ballot for now.

Jennings, Hughie -- He’s #37 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan (really behind Spalding) and ahead of Rabbit Maranville. I’ve never been comfortable enough with his career length to place him highly.

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #26 in my system, behind Mickey Welch and ahead of Spotswood Poles. I’ve got to side with the WARP analysis on this one…at 275 IP per year, he’d give you a WARP of about 4.2. I like steady, but I need some brilliance too. He moved up a lot from my prior ranking because of RSI.

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in grey ink and Keltner tests. He’s #21 in my system, behind Joe Sewell (really Wallace) and ahead of Vic Willis.

Leach, Tommy – He’s #20 in my system, tied with Joe Sewell and Larry Doyle. He has made my ballot from time to time.

Van Haltren, George – Won’t go away…unfortunately. Long solid career, but I don’t even see a brief flash of superstardom. He’s #41 in my system, behind Herman Long and ahead of Heinie Zimmerman.
   122. Esteban Rivera Posted: December 20, 2004 at 05:07 AM (#1031139)
I wonder who will get in this year?

1. Babe Ruth - Better than Butterfinger.

2. Rogers Hornsby - Loved his work on Cinderella and The King and I.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

6. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

7. Dazzy Vance - Peak. Strikeouts. Dominance.

8. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

9. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Roger Bresnahan - Edges out Schang and Shalk as my top catcher available. Have moved him back up because I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

15. Frank Chance - The opposite of Beckley. Was the standard for excellence at his position but injuries did him in. Tragic that it was the "competitive" nature of his opposition that caused him part of his career and shortened his life.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Joe Sewell - A little more playing career and he would have been on the ballot. As it is, he is just off it.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot around 20.

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at position.

Tommy Leach - Moves up in my estimation this year but not enough to crack the ballot. Around 18.
   123. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 20, 2004 at 05:46 AM (#1031155)
I will admit that I haven't put much into it this week, with the holidays and all, & the top two on the board being so obvious. With that said, here we go . . .

PA = Pennants Added
WSaR = Win Shares above replacement
WS = Win Shares

WS are adjusted to a 162 game season, based on team decisions. Replacement level has been tweaked upward (from 6.5 to 8.8 WS/season). ~337 IP = 162 G for a hitter.

1. Babe Ruth (n/e) - (2.469 PA, 619 WSaR, 792 WS) - The greatest of the great. Anyone who tries to systematically figure out who the best player of all-time is and doesn't turn up the name "Babe Ruth" needs to re-evaluate his system.

2. Rogers Hornsby (n/e) - (1.563 PA, 408 WSaR, 539 WS) - Great player, overrated by history. He's not hands down the greatest 2B of all-time as most people would say. Hornsby is probably closer to falling behind Lajoie than he is to passing Collins, IMO. He's clearly behind Eddie Collins in most systematic evaluations. Arguably behind Morgan too. He was an amazing hitter, but the context for his feats was about as favorable as could be, on the surface making them look more valuable than they were. Not taking anything away from him, just saying he's not the greatest 2B of all-time, that's all.

3. Eppa Rixey (2) - (280-237 CJ, .690 PA, 206 WSaR, 331 WS) I have no idea where to slot the pitchers among the position players. None. Rixey is clearly the top pitcher on this ballot, even with the arrival of Vance. He'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around .770 PA and 370 WS) if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19. 300 game winners are a rare breed (especially after 1892) and in just about any other conditions before 1985, Rixey would have been one.

4. Dazzy Vance (n/e) - (209-129 CJ, .605 PA, 174 WSaR, 256 WS) - Great pitcher, relatively short career. I like long-career very good pitchers more than short career star pitchers, and if it were 1910 I had my choice, I'd take Rixey's career over Vance's. I hope they both are inducted quickly.

5. Charley Jones (3) - (.716 PA, 197 WSaR, 287 WS) Give him credit for his blackballed years at .0875 per year and he's at .891 PA. That's basically his 1878, he was better than that in 1879, 1884 and 1885. Throw in 33 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow.

6. Bill Monroe (4) - (Esitmated 344 WS if you give him credit for A defense) Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

7. Gavy Cravath (5) - (.534 PA, 152 WSaR, 220 WS) Too much to ignore - either he was a freak of nature or there's a lot missing. Just giving him 4 years of extra credit at .075 PA, or 29 WS per season (he was better than that 3 times in his 30s) moves him to 336 WS, .834 PA.

8. Jake Beckley (6) - (.714 PA, 215 WSaR, 369 WS) A very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. 11 seasons over 20 WS, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion.

9. Clark Griffith (7) - (231-152 CJ, .769 PA, 217 WSaR, 320 WS). He rates as the top post 1893 pitcher on the ballot, by a long-shot - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). He falls behind Rixey when Rixey's war credit is included. It was also tougher for pitchers to have the same pennant impact in Rixey's era, so ties tend to go to the modern pitcher on this basis.

Also, I cannot find a method that lists McGinnity ahead of Griffith. Chris J record? 231-152 is basically equal to 234-154. McGinnity only gets .668 PA, 185 WSaR, 296 WS. Under the old numbers, Griffith had McGinnity by 9 or 10 WARP1 and WARP3, and the margins were similar on PA. Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity, but I can't see how he'd be in and Griffith out - Griffith absolutely deserves eventual induction.

10. George Van Haltren (9) - (.879 PA, 254 WSaR, 412 WS) - Most WS and WSaR among position players on the ballot not named Ruth or Hornsby. Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6.

11. Tommy Leach (10) - (.778 PA, 226 WSaR, 355 WS) Win Shares loves this guy. He's underrated as a 3B and overrated as a CF because of the time he played in, but in the end it's a wash. Sure it wasn't a great league, but that's an awful lot of WS to turn your back on.

12. Dobie Moore (11) - (Estimated 300-340 WS depending on war credit and defensive quality). Great player, career cut short.

13. Wally Schang (12) - (.569 PA, 174 WSaR, 262 WS) The best white catcher we've seen since Buck Ewing. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season. He rates higher on WS than Charlie Bennett (.527, 154 WSaR, 239 WS).

Schang is miles ahead of Schalk (.392 PA, 120 WSaR, 206 WS), and as far as I can tell, any white catcher of the era 1910-30 era.

14. Edd Roush (13) - (.798 PA, 228 WSaR, 340 WS) Great player from 1917-1920. His peak was every bit as good as Sisler. Sisler 1916-1922: 145 WSaR. Roush's best 7 seasons 152 WSaR. Sisler, one season at 25 WSaR. Roush two above that and another at 24. The remainder of their careers isn't close. I can't see voting Sisler over Roush. Even giving Sisler at 10% overall bonus for 1B not being measured correctly (which wouldn't even apply to 2nd half of Sisler's career, where 1B became a more offensive position Roush is ahead on all three measures.

15. Jimmy Ryan (14) - (.787 PA, 229 WSaR, 368 WS) Great player from 1888-92, and a very good player during the remainder of his long career.
   124. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 20, 2004 at 05:46 AM (#1031156)
Dropping out:

16. Ben Taylor (15) - (Estimated 326 WS) Almost a direct replica of Beckley. Says a lot about the tightness of the ballot.

Close by not yet . . .

17. Hugh Duffy (16) - (.822 PA, 231 WSaR, 348 WS) What? The guy I bashed, bashed and bashed again? I guess I was discounting his 1891 too heavily. It needs to be deflated, but not as much as I had. I also laughed away his 1894 as a very good year, but not a historic one in context - again, I was probably too harsh there.

18. Vic Willis (17) - (251-203 CJ, .739 PA, 207 WSaR, 322 WS) - I like Mike Webber's pet too.
19. Spotswood Poles (18) - (~332 WS)
20. Dolph Luque (19) - (with 3 bonus seasons at roughly .500 I see him at 239-199 (207-166 CJ), .670 PA, 197 WSaR, 297 WS)
21. Frank Chance (20) - (.650 PA, 185 WSaR, 257 WS)
22. Roger Bresnahan (21) - (.581 PA, 170 WSaR, 249 WS)
23. George Sisler (22) - (.659 PA, 190 WSaR, 317 WS) Most of what I want to say about him is covered in the Roush comment. Additionally, Sisler was a great player from 1916-22. 1B had more defensive responsibility and Sisler still hit like a great outfielder. I see as quite similar to Don Mattingly, but Sisler was able to sustain his greatness a little bit longer and would have to rank ahead if forced to choose among them. I give him a 7.7% bonus for playing 1B - this is the percentage of his pennants added that game before 1923 (the date I generally use as my cutoff for deadball the deadball 1B bonus).
24. Mickey Welch (23) - (302-215 CJ, 1.432 PA, 345 WSaR, 536 WS) - I can't tell if RSI or WARP tells the true story. Extremely divergent opinions.

Others within shouting distance:

Close but can't even order them at this point: Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Urban Shocker, Carl Mays, Burleigh Grimes (should I be giving him any military service credit?), Jim McCormick, Rube Waddell, Jack Quinn, Eddie Cicotte, Herb Pennock, Harry Hooper, Ed Konetchy, Joe Sewell, John Beckwith, Ed Williamson, Lave Cross, Pie Traynor, Hughie Jennings, Herman Long, Sam Rice, Fielder Jones, Mike Griffin, Larry Doyle, Cupid Childs, John McGraw, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Tinker, Dave Bancroft, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning.

That works out to 51 players under consideration.
   125. OCF Posted: December 20, 2004 at 06:38 AM (#1031196)
Also, I cannot find a method that lists McGinnity ahead of Griffith

Well, by season-by-season RA+ PythPat, I have McGinnity 227-155 and Griffith 203-146, making the marginal difference between them (in McGinnity's favor) 24-9. One very good season.
   126. KJOK Posted: December 20, 2004 at 06:48 AM (#1031207)
Also, I cannot find a method that lists McGinnity ahead of Griffith

Runs Saved Above Average:
Griffith - 256
McGinnity - 238
   127. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: December 20, 2004 at 07:10 AM (#1031223)
203-146 OCF? That seems pretty low on decisions. He had 283 decisions - McGinnity had 288 which is pretty much in line with your numbers. Why are Griffith's decisions low in your system?
   128. robc Posted: December 20, 2004 at 04:01 PM (#1031533)
1. Babe Ruth - Too bad this years ballot is so weak that he can make it on the first try.
2. Rogers Hornsby - yeah, him too.
3. Joe Sewell - No Ruth of Hornsby, but still a step above everyone else.
4. Harry Hooper - The next 2 are my hurting-my-consensus-score picks. Oh well, I still like them better than the rest.
5. Lave Cross - It looks like others are noticing that they might need to consider him. Not sure if that will get him on any other ballots.
6. Fielder Jones - At this point the pack begins to become indistinguishable. And for this vote, with the obvious election occuring, I have little interest in defending the order of them. This is where they fell out of my system. It is primarily Warp3 career + best 5 years peak (best years count twice basically). Lots of positional and other adjustments, but in this year, I just let the numbers fall where they were. Should I actually mention Fielder in this comment?
7. Bobby Veach - Im not sure any of these guys are HoMers? We need a big influx of talent to push these guys off my ballot altogether.
8. Jake Beckley - Wheres the peak?
9. Del Pratt <-- does not interest me at all.
10. Wally Schang - best Catcher on ballot. Which isnt saying much.
11. Pie Traynor - In my mind he screams Hall Of Meriter. But then I actually look at his numbers.
12. Tommy Leach - For some reason I cant tell Veach and Leach apart. I would look up which is which most years.
13. Eppa Rixey - pretty good pitcher.
14. Sam Rice - Best Rice: Sam, Jim, or Long-Grain?
15. Rube Waddell - see Eppa.
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 20, 2004 at 04:15 PM (#1031580)
I have 50 ballots counted at the present time. Still AWOL are Dan Rosenheck, mbd1mbd1, Philip, Brian H and Max Parkinson.

Joe and I have decided to start the discussion thread this week, but to extend the discussion an additional week. That means the ballot thread will be posted on Jan. 3.

We will also have a thread posted for the 2005 Hall of Fame class today. There will also be a two-week discussion for them, then a ballot thread will also be posted on Jan 3.
   130. OCF Posted: December 20, 2004 at 04:56 PM (#1031686)
Joe - see the Griffith thread. I'm using IP as the scale factor rather than actual decisions, and Griffith had an unusually low number of IP per decision.
   131. OCF Posted: December 20, 2004 at 05:05 PM (#1031701)
If just two of the five people John named in #29 check in, John will be right about setting a new record for most points for the elected candidates. Cobb+Speaker in 1934 was 2436 points. 50 unanimous 1-2 ballots comes to 2350, and two more of those would make 2444.
   132. mbd1mbd1 Posted: December 20, 2004 at 05:13 PM (#1031725)
1941 ballot: 1250 Win Shares between the top two that any good? I've adjusted my methodology a little bit this year. I look back at what I did when first ranking players for the 1920 election and say what in the world??? Oh well, there's no perfect way to do this, and part of the fun of this project is seeing how ~50 different viewpoints blend together each election.

1. Babe Ruth (NA) - duh. The best ever.
2. Rogers Hornsby (NA) - duh. Inner circle.
3. George Van Haltren (2) - So yeah, there's a big drop off right about here.
4. Hugh Duffy (4) -
5. Dazzy Vance (NA) - He's been getting a lot of (deserved) love so far. He looks a lot like Waddell to me, but with better WARP3 and a little more Ink.
6. Edd Roush (5) -
7. Roger Bresnahan (NA) - First time I've had Bresnahan on my ballot. He's been close before. I'm glad to vote for him.
8. Jimmy Ryan (3) - Still hanging around my ballot.
9. George Sisler (12) -
10. Jake Beckley (8) - I flip flop these two 1B's again.
11. Rube Waddell (NA) - Back on my ballot.
12. George J. Burns (13) -
13. Tommy Leach (11) -
14. Sam Rice (6) - Rice and Hooper both fell quite a few spots.
15. Bobby Veach (10) - And Veach, too. None of these second tier outfielders (Burns, Leach) really excite me, but somebody has got to fill out the bottom of the ballot.

next five: Rixey, Browning, Willis, Sewell, Beckwith. I had Sewell at the bottom of my ballot last year, and he got crowded off this year. Jennings doesn't appeal to the career voter in me.
   133. Philip Posted: December 20, 2004 at 08:49 PM (#1032147)
1. Ruth (new) – a worthy successor of Lipman at the top of my ballot.
2. Hornsby (new)

3. Griffith (7-5-3-2-2) – Covaleski with a little less peak
4. Leach (9-7-5-3-3) – Another infielder who is greatly underrated. Should rate close to Groh but probably doesn’t get the positional boost Groh is getting. Similar career to Ryan/VH comes out ahead when taking into account his time at third base. Makes my pHoM this year.
5. Vance (new)
6. Mendez (10-8-6-5-5) – Great peak, a little more career and he would be a clear HOMer. Now he is still a borderline candidate.
7. Rixey (6-6)
8. Van Haltren (11-9-7-7-7) – Made my pHoM a few years ago and was probably the last of the 19th century to do so.
9. Shocker (13-11-8-8-8) – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot based on his great peak. Underrated by this group.
10. Ryan (12-10-10-10-9) – Nearly identical to VH.

11. Redding (13-11-11-10) – Using Chris Cobb’s Win Share estimates, he rates very similar to Cooper.
12. Cooper (15-14-12-12-11) – Steadily rising in my ranking. Still have to see if he stood out enough from his pears to remain so high.

13. C. Jones (16-15-13-13-12) – Every now and then Ol’ Charlie reappears on my ballot. Jones leads a large group of very good players who I don’t feel are HoM-worthy.
14. Roush (14-14-13) – See #13
15. Hooper (15-15-14) – See #13
   134. OCF Posted: December 20, 2004 at 11:55 PM (#1032515)
Amendment to posts #125 and #130:

Excuse me; Griffith should have that many decisions. I now have him as 216-160 equivalent. But then McGinnity at 227-155 is clearly ahead.
   135. Max Parkinson Posted: December 21, 2004 at 01:14 AM (#1032574)
Sorry that this is so rushed, but I've been seeing "My SQL Error" for an hour and a half. If there are those that want to disallow this ballot for time or lack of comments, I won't object.

1. Ruth
2. Hornsby
3. Jennings
4. Vance
5. Beckwith
6. Konetchy
7. Redding
8. Hooper
9. Burns
10. Waddell
11. Veach
12. Sisler
13. Griffith
14. Monroe
15. Grimes
   136. OCF Posted: December 21, 2004 at 01:24 AM (#1032579)
I'd be in favor of counting Max's ballot. The site was being flaky for me today as well.

I would suggest that Max go ahead and find the time to give us his comments. It would be a courtesy to the rest of us.

With Max, we have 53 ballots, including newcomers Ardo and Mike Webber.

I imagine Ruth won't be our last unanimous #1 vote. But when are we ever going to have a unanimous #2 again? That's not easy to arrange.
   137. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 21, 2004 at 01:47 AM (#1032592)
I'd be in favor of counting Max's ballot. The site was being flaky for me today as well.

I would allow it, too. It took me a half hour to finally get on now.

The election is now over, Results will be posted shortly.
   138. Max Parkinson Posted: December 21, 2004 at 02:46 AM (#1032667)
1941 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Ruth and Hornsby)

1. Babe Ruth

This one’s for Grandad, the biggest fan of the Babe that I’ll ever know, from 1920 until last year. To be perfectly honest, just casting this vote will be worth all of the time and energy that I spend on this project.

2. Rogers Hornsby

Probably the only man in the world that wouldn’t have voted Ruth number one. (Ah, maybe Cobb as well…)

3. Hughie Jennings

Still crazy after all these years… Hughie remains the only player on the ballot with the “Best Player in the Game” belt. I’m not sure that a good chunk of you will ever be convinced of my argument, but I’d rather a superduperstar for 5 years, with a blah 6 or 7 than a pretty good player for 15. For those 5 great years, Hughie was more valuable offensively than A-rod in his prime, and was otherworldly in the field. 5 possible MVP years are much more than anyone else here can claim…

4. Dazzy Vance

Career wasn’t long, but was prime ever good! Best pitcher in the game in ’24 and ’28.

5. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Konetchy, Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed.

6. Ed Konetchy

Ahead of Sisler? Well, it’s close but yes. Whereas Rixey had the better extended prime than Faber, it wasn’t better by enough to overcome Faber’s peak lead. Here, Konetchy’s prime is better by enough to overcome Sisler’s peak. Take defense for example. Sisler was acknowledged as a great glove man, but it was really only true while he was young. Konetchy was as good as that for most of his career. Konetchy never had Sisler’s great few seasons, but he wasn’t nearly as bad at his worst.

7. Dick Redding

I think he slots in best here. But really, I’ve got a system that has a possible point range from 0 to 5950. The Babe is #1 with just over 4600, and 5 other players are above 3000. 14 more are better than 2000. I’ve got 46 players (retired and active) between Jennings (1618) and Eddie Cicotte (1420), a gap of less than 200 points. If I think Redding’s in this region, the margin of error puts him anywhere from 4 to 35 on this ballot.

8. Harry Hooper
9. George Burns

The next two outfielders from the teens (and 20s). I’ve got a question for the electorate: Why is Jake Beckley getting so much more attention than Hooper? 18 people voted for Beckley last year, while passing on Hooper, including 4 who voted for Beckley in an elect-me position!

I would think that most (Except Karl, of course) of Beckley’s supporters are Win Shares people, so let’s look at Win Shares. Granted, I use modified WS, but my 3 mods should help Beckley as compared to straight WS. First, pre-1893 I apportion 50% of Pitching WS to position players, more in fielding than batting. This helps Beckley but not Hooper. Next, I use a 2/3 power to account for shorter seasons (This is like old WARP, new WARP uses ½). Last, I use ½ of the league adjustment of BP between leagues of the same year. Beckley played in the best available league for his entire career save the last 6 years. Hooper played in the best league save for his last 2. Slight edge to Hooper. ** Note that WS undervalues both 1B (pre-1920) and RF defense. Beckley was good at the former, Hooper was superlative at the latter. Who does Win Shares’ mistakes hurt more?

Anyhow, here’s what I get from my modified WS


Best 3___________73____85
Best 5__________116___130
Best 7__________156___171
Best 10_________215___231
5 Cons._________108___127
6 Cons._________127___147
7 Cons._________148___167
8 Cons._________167___188
9 Cons._________178___204
10 Cons.________195___226

Hooper’s best year is better than Beckley’s best. So’s his 2nd best. And 3rd, 4th, 5th right to 12th. Beckley then takes over, and his 13th best through 20th best is better than Hooper’s. But 15 Win Shares over a career is enough to have Beckley 1 and Hooper never heard of ya? When any look at peak or prime says that Hooper was better? Sorry to rant, but I just don’t get it.
   139. Max Parkinson Posted: December 21, 2004 at 02:47 AM (#1032670)
10. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

11. Bobby Veach

Peak was higher than Hooper, but prime not as long. Was the 3rd best OF in the AL a few times; not too shabby when the other 2 are Cobb and Speaker.

12. Clark Griffith

As discussed in the Mickey Welch thread, Griffith is the best pitcher not yet inducted from a pretty damn good era of baseball, the one-league late ‘90s, where the other 3 are inner-circle types in Young, Nichols and Rusie. Contrast Welch, who would be at best the 7th best pitcher from his decade.

13. George Sisler
14. Bill Monroe

I’ve probably been underrating Monroe…

15. Burleigh Grimes

Good career, decent peak - possible MP HoMer down the road.


16-20. Sewell, Uhle, Moore, Maranville, F. Jones
21-25. Shocker, Rixey, Luque, Roush, Mays
26-30. Bancroft, Mendez, C. Jones, Cicotte, Pennock
31-35. Duffy, Quinn, Leach, Taylor, Seymour
36-40. Fletcher, Tinker, Shawkey, Rommel, Buffinton


Beckley – see Hooper’s comment. 50 on my ballot.
Sewell – at 16, he’s not far off. I agree with those that say there’s not much separating him from Long and Bancroft. Hell, there’s not much separating 4 from 35 here.

Thanks for the understanding, fellas.
   140. Max Parkinson Posted: December 21, 2004 at 03:40 PM (#1033486)
Man, re-using comments can bite you. On Jennings' comment, I mentioned that his MVP years are "more than anyone else here can claim". That should be "anyone below here can claim". Oops.
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