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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, January 10, 20051942 Results: Hall of Merit Voters Were “Dazzled” by Vance; “Memphis Bill” Also Left an Impression!With a record 65 candidates who earned a spot on a ballot, 1920’s strikeout king Dazzy Vance placed first for induction to the Hall of Merit in his second year of eligibility. In his first year as a candidate, New York Giants’ star Bill Terry gained admission to the HOM by winning enough votes for the second spot. Eppa Rixey was a very close third, while John Beckwith made a huge jump in the rankings by moving from last year’s #13 to this year’s #5. Rounding out the top ten were: Clark Griffith, Joe Sewell, George Van Haltren (back in the top ten), Tommy Leach, Hughie Jennings and Jake Beckley. RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 3 Dazzy Vance 719 41 9 8 2 2 2 3 4 3 2 2 1 3 2 n/e Bill Terry 571 42 3 3 5 1 2 2 4 6 2 2 2 5 3 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 4 Eppa Rixey 527 37 3 3 2 1 4 7 1 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 4 5 Joe Sewell 475 33 3 4 4 5 1 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 13 John Beckwith 463 31 5 2 3 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 4 6 6 Clark Griffith 456 30 3 3 3 2 1 4 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 7 11 George Van Haltren 436 27 7 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 1 8 7 Hughie Jennings 430 26 3 6 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 4 1 1 9 8 Tommy Leach 424 33 1 1 1 4 3 2 1 4 1 5 3 1 1 3 2 10 10 Jake Beckley 402 27 3 3 1 3 1 2 2 4 3 1 1 1 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 9 George Sisler 399 28 3 1 4 2 2 3 2 1 3 3 4 12 12 Rube Waddell 338 26 1 1 3 1 1 5 1 3 4 2 1 2 1 13 14 Hugh Duffy 333 24 2 2 4 4 2 3 1 3 3 14 19 Edd Roush 296 24 1 1 1 3 4 3 1 2 2 4 1 1 15 15 Cannonball Dick Redding 293 24 1 1 1 1 3 1 5 4 2 1 3 1 16 16 Cupid Childs 289 22 1 3 4 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 2 17 17 Mickey Welch 279 15 5 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 18 18 Pete Browning 273 19 1 1 5 1 1 1 2 2 3 1 1 19 20 Burleigh Grimes 237 17 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 3 20 22 Larry Doyle 222 17 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 3 21 21 Roger Bresnahan 190 17 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 22 23 Jimmy Ryan 190 15 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 1 1 23 26 José Méndez 189 16 1 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 3 24 24 Charley Jones 187 12 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 25 25 Wally Schang 168 12 1 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 26 28 Bill Monroe 154 14 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 1 27 27 Sam Rice 143 11 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 28 31 Dobie Moore 131 13 1 1 2 2 2 1 4 29 29 Pie Traynor 119 10 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 30 32T Harry Hooper 118 11 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 31 30 George J. Burns 110 10 2 1 2 1 3 1 32 34 Vic Willis 74 7 1 1 1 2 2 33 37 Ben Taylor 72 6 2 1 1 1 1 34 35 John McGraw 68 5 1 1 1 1 1 35 32T Bobby Veach 66 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 36 38 Wilbur Cooper 64 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 37 45 Rabbit Maranville 63 7 1 2 2 2 38 49 Addie Joss 63 6 1 1 2 2 39 42 Urban Shocker 59 6 2 1 2 1 40 44 Spotswood Poles 58 5 1 1 1 1 1 41 40 Carl Mays 57 5 1 2 1 1 42 43 Hack Wilson 54 5 1 1 2 1 43 41 Gavy Cravath 54 4 1 1 1 1 44 46 Ed Williamson 46 4 1 2 1 45 39 Frank Chance 43 5 1 2 2 46 36 Fielder Jones 35 4 1 1 2 47 48 Ed Cicotte 35 3 1 1 1 48 47 Ed Konetchy 31 3 1 1 1 49 51 Lave Cross 29 2 1 1 50 50 Dave Bancroft 24 3 1 1 1 51 60 Jim McCormick 24 2 1 1 52 54T Fred Dunlap 23 2 1 1 53 n/e Buzz Arlett 20 2 1 1 54 54T Del Pratt 16 2 1 1 55T 53 Dolf Luque 16 1 1 55T 52 Tom York 16 1 1 57 54T Donie Bush 15 1 1 58 54T Sam Leever 14 1 1 59T n/e Tommy Bond 10 1 1 59T 58T Duke Farrell 10 1 1 59T 58T Jack Fournier 10 1 1 62 61 Ray Schalk 9 1 1 63 63 Jack Quinn 8 1 1 64T n/e Herman Long 6 1 1 64T 62 Ross Youngs 6 1 1
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: January 10, 2005 at 11:14 PM | 89 comment(s)
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 11, 2005 at 01:02 AM (#1071027)Gotta run now. I'll be back with more details later this evening.
Bill Terry is to the 1920s-1930s what Sam Thompson was to the 1890s.
I am glad that Vance is in. I think we elected the rigth 1920s pitchers in Coveleski, Faber, and Vance. If Rixey (and he is the only other one that will make my ballot) makes it I won't be too mad but i think I would draw the line between them.
Mr. "highest consensus score" just saw two candidates elected that he didn't even have on his ballot.
Funny, I wondered if anyone could put Terry ahead of Sisler AND Beckley, or how anyone could put Vance ahead of Jennings.
I guess I found my answer!
These guys sure picked a hecukva year to become eligible.
Pike 13399
Thompson 12349
Bennett 11503
VAN HALTREN 11416.5
DUFFY 11295
JENNINGS 11130
Caruthers 10704
BECKLEY 10612
BROWNING 10239.5
RYAN 9672
H Stovey 9576
GRIFFITH 9020
WADDELL 8741
Start 8378.5
McGinnity 8232
Pearce 8073
McVey 7985.5
Grant 7969.5
CHILDS 7946
WELCH 7806
Top 20 Active Vote Pts Leaders through 1942
VAN HALTREN 11416.5
DUFFY 11295
JENNINGS 11130
BECKLEY 10612
BROWNING 10239.5
RYAN 9672
GRIFFITH 9020
WADDELL 8741
CHILDS 7946
WELCH 7806
BRESNAHAN 5664
LEACH 4752
C. JONES 4274
WILLIAMSON 4040
MONROE 3951
McCORMICK 3119
DOYLE 2931
TIERNAN 2686x
SISLER 2599
MCGRAW 2351
x - no votes in 1942
With Oscar Charleston, Bill Foster, Dick Lundy, and Judy Johnson appearing on the 1943 ballot, I'm going to review my placements for all the Negro League candidates (Mendez, Monroe, Dobie Moore, Taylor, Redding, Beckwith) along with the 4 newbies.
Al Spalding disagrees.
In total agreement. He can go with Faber and Wallace to take tickets. Terry joins the growing group of players who gained entrance through retiring in the right year in combination with a lack of two strong candidates so that broad but weak support enabled enshrinement.
Terry finished tied for 7th in elect-me votes.
Vance 12
Van Haltren 9
Jennings 9
Beckwith 7
Welch 7
Sewell 7
Beckley 6
Griffith 6
Terry 6
(listed in order of elect-me votes, then first-place, then alphabetically.)
Points per vote (everyone w/ 15 votes) [position]:
Welch 18.6 [17]
Vance 17.5 [1]
Jennings 16.5 [8]
Van Haltren 16.1 [7]
Griffith 15.2 [6]
Beckwith 14.94 [5]
Beckley 14.88 [10]
Sewell 14.39 [4]
Browning 14.37 [18]
Sisler 14.3 [11]
Rixey 14.2 [3]
Duffy 13.9 [13]
Grimes 13.9 [19]
Terry 13.6 [2]
Childs 13.1 [16]
Doyle 13.1 [20]
Waddell 13 [12]
Leach 12.8 [9]
Ryan 12.7 [22]
Roush 12.3 [14]
Redding 12.2 [15]
Mendez 11.8 [23]
Bresnahan 11.2 [21]
So how did Terry make it in?
Terry dominated the 9-15 spots on ballots where 22 of his 42 votes came from. The next highest finish by a player with 50% of their votes from the bottom half of the ballot was Waddell - 12th. The next most votes from 9-15 was Redding with 16.
He did have broad support in top half as well with 20 votes 1-8. But it was his support at the back half of the ballot that put him in. 5 more 12th place votes would have put Rixey in. Terry and Sewell both had 20 votes 1st - 8th. 9-15 Terry had 22, Sewell 13. If Sewell matched Terry's performance on the back half, he would be in.
To Many Voters,
Thank you for taking the time to explain, in some way, your voting method/system.
How many of the 210 elected are outside the top 210?
If you were to penalize a first year ballot player by adding 50 to their rank arbitrarily for that year, wouldnt you end up electing more or at least worse outside the top 210 players?
Terry's Win Shares numbers in my system are much like those of an outfielder. This may not sound convincing, but if I went solely on my win shaares numbers, 7 of my top ten guys (maybe more) would be outfielders, I don't think that is very realistic. Win Shares seems to overrate outfielders.
Now Terry didn't make my PHOM, somaybe I am nto the guy who should defend him. But I do think he would have been a much better selection than say, Joe Sewell.
I think the high number of 9th to 15th place votes are in some cases a matter of voters not being sure what to do with him on the first try, so it's 'a compromise' - one that got him elected.
I'll agree with you that Terry is borderline. Then again all the people on the 1942 ballot were borderline - thus they were backlog candidates. We did the best we could and thus Bill Terry makes the HOM.
As for complaints that Terry got in by being on many ballots but in the lower half, we can have that or the Lip Pike syndrome. In 1940 he got elected while being on 26 of 50 ballots. So the half of us who thought he was a bogus selection bit the bullet then. Others can do the same now.
The "problem", if there is a problem, comes in the way we tabulate votes, not in the ordering of any particular -- or group of -- ballots. The group has a whole has been fairly consistently good in ranking according to their personal values.
However, in this case we've got a bunch of people on all of our ballots, down bottom, who we probably wouldn't want to actually elect.
Suppose we kept our same scoring system, but voted for only 5 people per ballot:
1. Vance -- 502
2. Beckwith -- 320
3. Sewell -- 316
4. Jennings -- 312
5. van Haltren -- 298
6. Terry -- 280
7. Rixey -- 258
Or, if we just ranked our Top 5, 5-4-3-2-1
1. Vance -- 89
T2 van Haltren -- 52
T2 Beckwith -- 52
4. Jennings -- 51
5. Sewell -- 48
6. Terry -- 46
7. Griffith -- 41
Either of those scoring methods pushes Terry down to sixth place.
Kelly made a valiant mid-ballot attempt to dissuade people from voting for Terry. The problem was that it is likely that he was about sixth best -- and people conservatively placed him 10th or 12 (like I did), but the scoring method put him back on on top.
If you personally think Beckwith or van Haltren would have been a better inductee than Terry (and many do not), then the criticism should be with the scoring method, not with the voters.
Changing the system doesn't help, but being cautious about newbies is essential. Even more essential is not to get bored with older players, allowing them to slip slowly down ballots as new toys appear, which is what seems to be happening.
THAT looks to me the real problem.
Was he at least a borderline candidate? Yes. Did he have an impressive peak? Yes. Do any of us need to hold our noses? No.
Welcome, Bill.
Al Spalding disagrees.
Spalding was the greatest pitcher of his era, while Terry wasn't close to being the best first baseman for his. Spalding was the greater impact player.
THAT looks to me the real problem.
Very well said, karlmagnus.
I think the elections of Terry and Pike are both proof that are system works. In down years you can be elected by being a strong candidate amongst 50% of the voters or by being a ballot candidate amongst 80% of the voters.
I agree with those who point out a tendency for new players to get more down-ballot support than they will receive in the next year or two, which then plays into the working of the voting system. I think voters should be aware of the tendency to let new candidates onto the ballot and try not to do it.
I would ask the voters to ask themselves: Are there features of my voting system that may unfairly privilege new candidates (for instance in how the consideration set is constructed)? If my approach to ballot construction is designedly subjective, am I giving new candidates unearned privilege?
I further disagree that the voting system is a problem. We've actually got a pretty solid voting system if it's one that can elect Pike and Terry despite such disparate ways into the HOM.
And finally, I sort of resent the implication that, as one of the 6 people who had Terry in an "elect me" slot, I got somehow dazzled by his newness on the ballot and overrated him. He is/was exactly where the mathematical formula I use slotted him on my ballot. I sometimes make adjustments to that formula for pitchers and catchers, as it does not handle them well, but in this case I made none. If Terry had not been inducted, then 20 elections later, he still would have been over everyone else on this ballot with the possible exceptions of Vance (who is a pitcher, which I'm always ending up messing with, and who was very close to Terry this election) or one of the NLers (where subjective evidence could theoretically convince me that they deserve a higher ballot position).
The fact that Terry had a lot of "down ballot" support could just as easily be an artifact of a lot of people who would otherwise have given him "up ballot" support being conservative. I know I dropped him a few "subjective" points, as I do with many new candidates who I don't have a good comfort level with.
Without letting us vote on his again in 1943, we won't know whether he was a shiny toy or a victim of restraint.
My system originally had Sewell at the top of my ballot a few elections back, but I had made some mental mistakes with him. Was I "blinded" by the jug-eared shortstop who retired years before I was born? Of course not. I just made a mistake.
Remember: if Terry hadn't made it, some of us would be complaining about another inductee. It just wasn't a good crop this "year," relative to other elections.
Spalding might have been the greatest pitcher of his era if he had shown up for the second half of it. Posting a goose egg for the last half of his era knocks him down a bit.
I find it interesting that I picked Spaldings name, considering he was on my ballot when he got elected and eventually made my PHOM while guys like Pike got elected while only vaguely sniffing at my ballot. I still think Lip was a better choice than Al.
I'll also add that there's been a lot of criticism of Sewell's case because there wasn't a lot of competition at shortstop in the 20s. But the opposite argument can be made for Terry - he wasn't the best first baseman of his era, but you don't have to be as good as Gehrig and Foxx to be worthy of election.
I was going to post something else, but I got distracted by something shiny...
That having been said, Terry was a very good player with a particularly impressive prime. He had a run of seven years in a row with an OWP over .700 and nine years in a row with an OWP over .670, and was one of the greatest defensive first basemen of alltime. I didn't do a systematic study but through quick rummaging I couldn't find a single 20th-century player with seven consecutive OWP's over .700 who we won't be a strong candidate for election.
Terry is not yet in my PHOM, but he would be if I voted straight-up on the numbers this year and, as is, he's fifth in line for election, which means he will probably sneak in the door sometime in the distant future. Even if he doesn't, he's at worst a borderline candidate. Since each of us have a few guys we think are ridiculous picks, I don't understand the whinning.
Was it Oscar Charleston? He is '43s shiny new toy.
Charleston, Cochrane, and Frisch - lots of shiny new toys. Surely no more than 1 or 2 of those 3 belong on the ballot?
I think as we go forward, we will elect many Spaldings, Pikes and Terry's that some voters don't like. I personally think Pud Galvin and a couple-too-many-LFers are our worst choices, but the fact is we will do worse than any of these guys someday. I mean, just think about electing three every year in the not too distant future, and working our way down to today's backlog again doing it.
As the consideration sets get bigger and our ballots more fragmented, there will also be many very close calls. And the fact is that we will have more Terry's than Pikes in the future. That is because our system has a small but potentially decisive bias toward consensus--to wit:
Elect-me bonus = 4 points
Off-ballot penalty = 6 points
Compare #2 Terry and #3 Rixey e.g. Assume Rixey makes 5 more ballots, so that each has 42. And assume that one of Rixey's is a first and four are 15ths. Now they have the same number of ballots and Rixey has one extra elect-me, for a total of 575 points to Terry's 571. That would be fair--i.e. Rixey getting elected, if he had the same total number of ballots and one more elect me.
Now delete Rixey from one ballot, one lousy little 15th place. He now has one extra elect-me, but Terry one extra ballot. And Terry wins 571-569.
Or take G. Van Haltren who is second this year in elect-me points. He needs a whole 'nother 15 ballots to match Terry's 42--well, assume he has them and they're all bottom of the ballot, an 8th and 2 each from 9th to 15th. Now he has the same number of ballots as Terry and 3 extra elect-me's. Add 139 points for VH and he beats Terry 575-571.
Now delete one 15th place, same as with Rixey. He's still got 3 extra elect-me's but one fewer ballot and he loses 571-569.
Now obviously Rixey and VH could also win these match-ups with a slightly different distribution of placements. But who's to say that scenarios like this won't happen randomly. I say they will and more than once.
So anyway, Bill Terry is in and some voters disagree, saying he may be one of our worst choices. Well, you ain't seen nothin' yet!
He's black though, so I'm not sure he counts.
*cough* Pete Hill *cough*
I think it's ok to vote Cochrane high, but Frisch may need to be hit with some caution, perhaps as a penalty for sneaking in some of his friends to the Hall of Fame.
Perhaps we can form a committee that would recommend which new candidates should be artificially held back, and which are OK to vote high. Any volunteers?
I cannot disagree more about a "first ballot penalty". We are called on to rank players to the best of our ability. That means we should be careful not to experience "shiny new toy syndrome", but it certainly doesn't mean we should be dropping new players arbitrarily.
I agree that we shouldn't drop new players arbitrarily, but we need to be sure we aren't favoring them arbitrarily, either.
I further disagree that the voting system is a problem. We've actually got a pretty solid voting system if it's one that can elect Pike and Terry despite such disparate ways into the HOM.
The voting system is not a problem: it has shown itself over the years to be a highly satisfactory mechanism for selection. Nevertheless, its design will favor certain configurations of voter support over others. It is useful for us to be aware of the system's influence.
And finally, I sort of resent the implication that, as one of the 6 people who had Terry in an "elect me" slot, I got somehow dazzled by his newness on the ballot and overrated him. He is/was exactly where the mathematical formula I use slotted him on my ballot.
If it makes you feel any better, my concerns about the electorate as a whole favoring new candidates excessively are directed at rankings in the bottom third of the ballot. I'm pretty sure that the folks who ranked Bill Terry #1 or #2 saw him, in their systems of value, as a clear HoMer. I disagree with that evaluation, but I'm sure it's a fully considered choice.
Since each of us have a few guys we think are ridiculous picks, I don't understand the whinning.
This is the challenge that Terry would have gone through if he'd placed third insead of second in his first year on the ballot. When the people who supported Terry write and defend their choices, it helps to verify that the outcome of the vote does indeed reflect the electorate's considered judgment.
Great comments!
4. Sewell
9. Leach
11. Sisler
14. Roush
20. Doyle
21. Bresnahan
25. Schang
27. Rice
29. Traynor
30. Hooper
31. Burns
35. Veach
37. Maranville
42. H. Wilson
43. Cravath
45. Chance
46. F. Jones
48. Konetchy
50. Bancroft
53. Arlett
54. Pratt
57. Bush
59. Fournier
62. Schalk
64. Youngs
Now each of us will find something there to disagree with, but they're grouped in 5s so that I can at least ask the question of whether anybody is at a grossly inappropriate level.
1st 5--I'm kind of surprised to see Leach with that group myself. 2nd 5--career guys, generally, who are not high on my list, but all (other than Bresnahan) somewhat comparable. 3rd 5--nobody there that excites me, they could be lower but probably not higher.
4th 5--Chance and Bancroft seem to be at least two groups too low, and Chance has never even been on my ballot. But if these rankings seem a bit out of whack at all, it is Chance and Bancroft seeming to be too low.
Otherwise I would just observe that the 20C position player backlog seems pretty weak. I think the division between Tier 1, inner circle, NBs and everybody else is so well established, that everybody who is not Tier 1 seems weak by comparison. I wonder if we are not underrating the whole lot of them a little bit. They are 25 players out of 65, 5/13ths, 40 percent, and maybe that is right. But I think the relative certitude that we have about the pecking order of this particular group of players, compared to the pitchers, the 19C and the NeLers, works to the disadvantage of all the non-NBs on this list.
I think this was the first election where I thought a non-shoo-in flew in first ballot with relative ease. That's 1927. Fifteen ballots ago.
I have no problem with Pete Hill's induction. There were four backlog elections immediately after 1927. The top NINE candidates from that year have all been inducted, so he was destined to make it anyways.
The point is that we've known about this "decent-candidate-in-a-backlog-year" effect for quite some time now. We were careful to run Groh & Wheat through the gauntlet in 1933 as one of them was likely to be inducted with little debate. We knew Faber flew in with very few elect-me votes just a couple of years ago. We all knew that there were many shoo-in's becoming eligible starting in 1943 and this was last backlog election for a while. We had the Terry thread up a 'year' early for extra debate and with the extra week for the holidays, its hard to imagine us thinking of him as a new toy since there were 47 posts there, but none since December 9th. There was mention in the discussion threads about the need to carefully examine Terry because he could easily be inducted in this backlog year. We should all know by now that you cannot wait until someone finishes 3rd in the voting before you state your case against their candidacy... because they just might finish higher.
I think Terry earned this. Welcome Bill.
I sorted my ballot from last year, and we seem to match up. You have Arlett and I have Combs, but otherwise the top 25 position players are the same.
You like the catchers more than I do, I like Maranville and George Burns more. Burns is probably a mistake on my part. Bancroft would be our biggest disagreement, I have him as a borderline bottom of the ballot guy, but you see a lot of people more deserving than Beauty.
The Beckwith thread boomed during 1940 and again during 1942, following major articles by Chris Cobb (Nov 30 and Dec 27 real time). Near silence during 1941 set the stage for his big jump in the 1942 election.
--
I expected that Sewell, Rixey or Beckwith would be elected. But I knew that someone without strong support would be elected. I think almost everyone knew that.
Terry benefited here by retiring before a boatload of first and second magnitude stars retired (and perhaps from the particular age that was selected to stand in lieu of retirement for Negro League elders). But that is true of everyone who was eligible in 1942.
The true first-year effect may be that people who feel strongly, and can make a good case, that Terry does not belong in the HOM on January 1, 1943, were not warned of his imminent election. In contrast, the corresponding "enemies" of Rixey, Sewell and Vance were warned. For Sewell, I think the warning was decisive; he would have been elected if his very strong showing had not stimulated some latent critics to give focus on him now.
Yes, the accident of the order we are considering candidates matters. If Terry had stayed on the ballot, he might have stayed on the ballot while Gehrig, Foxx, and Greenberg were all elected ahead of him. I'd have to put Greenberg ahead of Terry.
Mr. "highest consensus score" just saw two candidates elected that he didn't even have on his ballot.
I can understand being a little confused by post #7, but jschmeagol had Vance 2nd and Terry 4th on his 1942 ballot.
Here's a 5-year update. This list is sorted by average score over those five years, with appropriate context adjustments for incomplete lines.
One could get a high consensus score by being a follower or by being a leader. I don't think there's any doubt that Chris Cobb is a leader - his posts probably make him the single most persuasive voter.
its hard to imagine us thinking of [Terry] as a new toy since there were 47 posts there, but none since December 9th. There was mention in the discussion threads about the need to carefully examine Terry because he could easily be inducted in this backlog year. We should all know by now that you cannot wait until someone finishes 3rd in the voting before you state your case against their candidacy... because they just might finish higher.
I didn't see this (or any of #31-42) before posting #43. In observing that Terry's latent critics "were not warned of his imminent election" I did mean not warned by his strong showing at the polls --close but no cigar-- as latent critics of Joe Sewell were warned (cf Rixey, Vance).
Terry's latent critics . . . were not moved by his imminent election, as Joe Sewell's were.
4. Sewell
9. Leach
I'll start out with the Top 2 -- which I guess are the most important to get right -- and say "No".
Holistic ubermeasures:
WARP1
Leach: 114
Sewell: 102
Win Shares:
Leach: 329
Sewell: 277
Bill James Ranking
Leach: BJ Rank #20 3B
Sewell: BJ Rank #23 SS
Piece by piece:
Offensively, they both are turning in a 109 OPS+, although Leach gives us an extra 253. Offensive advantage Leach for the same performance in 1.5 more season's worth of games.
Defense: Both played "important" defensive positions
Marginal Differences in Games Played by At Important Def. Positions:
Leach: 996 G @ CF; 312 G @ 3B
Sewell: 1152 G @ SS
FRAR:
Leach: 584
Sewell: 511
FRAA:
Leach: 120
Sewell: 101
Other: Postseason (2 world series each)
Leach: 18 for 58 with 4 2B, 4 3B, and 9 RBI. .310 BA., .866 OPS
Sewell: 9 for 38 with a double and 3 RBI. .237 BA, .619 OPS.
Other: "Peak"
WS/162
Leach: 24.72
Sewell: 23.58
Top 3 WS:
Leach: 87
Sewell: 84
Top 3 WARP1:
Leach: 29.1
Sewell: 31.7
Pennants Added 2.0:
Leach: .778 -- third all-time for third basemen, clearly among the HoMers (Sutton, Baker, Leach, Collins, Groh)
Sewell: .627 -- tenth all-time for shortstops, after 7 HoMers (Wagner, Davis, Dahlen, Wright, Glassock, Wallace, Ward), and 2 non-Homers (Jennings and Long).
So, by what measures does Sewell top Leach? Marginally in Top few WARP-1 seasons. Maybe in "defensive importance" if 1150 games at SS trumps 1300 games in center and third.
In my mind, this one isn't really that close. It's Leach by a country mile.
I have both players high on my ballot, but I have Sewell (2) ahead of Leach (7).
A couple of factors not included in PhillyBooster's excellent analysis:
1) The bulk of Leach's career is played in the weaker NL of the 00's/10's; Sewell is playing in the dominant AL of the 20's. (WARP-3: Leach 82.0 Sewell 88.5) This also boosts Sewell's peak ahead of Leach's.
2) Sewell was often the best SS in MLB during the 20's (WARP has him #1 5 times, 23-6,28); Leach was rarely the best at his position of the year (only once, 1908).
I was living in the Bay Area in 1981-82, going to a lot of games at the Stick, which had the names of several great Giants of the past on the OF wall, including Matty and McGraw, as well as Mays, McCovey, and Marichal. But no Bill Terry.
I wrote the Giants owner (then Bob Lurie) in the offseason and said that he was missing the boat in not having Terry's name out there, since he was the last NL guy to hit .400 and won 3 pennants and a WS as manager. He wrote back thanking me and said they'd do something about it.
Well, they put his name and number on the OF wall the next year (I think it was '82 or '83). And Terry even showed up for the ceremony. He was about 85 or so at the time. When they asked he how he felt about being honored, the cantankerous old fart said that it was long overdue!
By my calculations (combination of WARP, WS and personal judgment), Leach was the best NL third baseman in 1901, 1902 and 1908, and the best NL centerfielder of 1913. I also see him as the second best NL third baseman of 1903, and the second best NL centerfielder of 1907 and 1914. Feel free to disagree with any individual year, but if you like someone else, then Leach was a very close second.
I do not deny that Sewell was also frequently the best, but the margins (for both players) were relatively narrow. Neither towered over the quivering masses below. Any advantage to Sewell on that count (and there may be a small one) I consider marginal and in no way decisive.
Anyway, I killed some time this afternoon by trying to analyze which eras are getting the most support in the voting for this year. What I did was, for each year, to add up the points for every player. So 1875, for example, has Charley Jones (187)+Tommy Bond (16)+Tom York (10).
The results: The totals slowly climb up through 1886 (1021), then go up steeply through 1891 (3224). They basically plateau (actually goes down a little) through 1897, then go up to a peak in 1900 (3921). After 1903, there's a sharp dropoff, bottoming out in 1908 (1881). They starts climbing again in the teens, getting back to the previous level by about 1915. There's a peak in 1920 at 4572.
If you don't count the honorees, that's the high point, staying steady through 1925 and heading down from there. If you do count Vance and Terry, it continues up, peaking in 1923 (5574). It parallels the other line from there on out, with a steady decline and a big dropoff after 1933.
To me, the big surprise was the large dip, basically between 1903 and 1913. It might be that we're undervaluing that era, it might be that we're satisfied we've handled it fairly. It's hard to say if it's a lack of candidates from that era or just a lower rating of the candidates we have. The average pts/candidate are definitely higher in the 1890s. From about 1905 to 1922 they're at roughly the same level. They go back up during the 1920s, reaching the level of the 90s if you include Terry and Vance.
I don't distinguish between the two leagues. The probability of the 2nd best player at a position being in the same league as the best player is close to 50% (7/15 or 47%). Jimmy Collins, Bill Bradley, and Frank Baker are part of the mix.
Well, he was blunt, I've heard. :-)
1. Comprehensive measures that take into account league strength , such as this week's ;-) version of WARP3, show that Sewell had more career value than Leach, in fewer games. #48 completely ignores this point. Now one may choose not to believe in AL-NL differences, but WARP, my system, World Series results, All Star game results, and HoF voting patterns all show a pretty clear pattern of AL superiority in this era.
2. CF and 3B are central positions on the defensive spectrum, while SS is on the right. Lumping them all together as "important defensive positions" is OK, but somewhat misleading.
3. Even if Bill James's ratings are true, it is entirely possible that the 23rd greatest SS in history belongs in the HoM, while the 20th greatest 3B doesn't. It's not like people are flocking to induct James' 15th greatest 3B (Traynor).
4. As jimd pointed out, a player can lead a league and not be among the 2 best players at his position. As ranked by Win Shares per plate appearance, corrected for league strength, Sewell was among the top 1/2/3 at his position 3/8/9 times. All eligible players at least this dominant at their positions have been inducted except for Frank Chance and Wally Schang. Leach was among the top 1/2/3 positions at his position 0/2/4 times. This is a Larry Gardner, Dave Bancroft, Hall of the Very Good level.
Look, I appreciate Tommy Leach, but he belongs in the Hall of the Very Good, not the HoM. He was Bill Bradley lite in his 3B days and Clyde Milan lite in his CF days. Win Shares blows it because it does not take into account league strength. Pennants added is essentially WS/430 at this Sewell/Leach level and merely repeats the WS mistake.
And sarcastic too, as James noted in one of his historical abstracts. I'm sure most here are familiar with the story of his "Is Brooklyn still in the league?" comment.
(For those who aren't, IIRC it went something like this: Between the 1933-34 seasons, as manager, he was giving his assessments of the various NL contenders to the press. The above comment was his notorious reply when asked about the Dodgers. The final two games of the season found the defending champion Giants tied with the Cardinals and hosting the Bums. The two teams had a fratricidal version of the Yankee-RedSox rivalry, so Brooklyn players and fans took extra-sweet delight in winning those two games while the Gas House Gang swept the last place Reds.)
1. Didn't Sewell play in an era with fewer great shortstops? Like none in the majors? I would say that Leach contemporaries Collings and Baker were quite good 3B. This would make a straight comparison of Leach's times at the top of his position and Sewell's times at the top of his misleading.
2. Before 1920, 3B was a more important defensive position. I believe it was more like 2B today. So saying they both played important defensive positions isn't as misleading as you asy it is.
Yes, I agree; Sewell played in an era with few great ML shortshops, just as Traynor played at a time with few great ML 3B. On the other hand, real wins result when you have a player that's the best at his position. There's a fine line between rewarding a player for having weak competition and punishing him for it.
Before 1920, 3B was a more important defensive position.
OK, point taken. I'll just note that Leach played more games at CF than 3B.
On the other hand, real wins result when you have a player that's the best at his position.
I've heard this argument made many times in various threads, but I don't think the argument is really valid. Why should it matter that one team has the best shortstop, if another team can beat them by having the best left fielder, or another team can beat them by having the best pitcher? Teams don't play each other position by position, it's one lineup against the other.
In 1921-23 New York was able to beat Cleveland despite Sewell's dominance at shortstop by having an even more dominant outfielder; in 1924-25 Washington was able to use a dominant pitcher and a left fielder to beat Cleveland's dominance at shortstop. I really don't think the argument that dominance at a position relative to other weak players should carry any weight in HOM decisions.
You are assuming the premise in order to argue against the premise.
Naming names, Joe Sewell was not as dominant at his position as your examples Babe Ruth and Walter Johnson were at theirs, and may not have been as dominant as your third example Goose Goslin.
And, in complete consistency with the premise that there is value to having a player who is the best at his position, I rate Ruth, Johnson, and Goslin higher than Sewell.
I don't think Rixey would be on that list.
I never said it was a problem, I just didn't like the choice, that's all. I don't think there's anything wrong with our system. I agree with whoever said that it's a positive that you need broad support, and a small minority can't get someone elected (which is by design). I just don't like the way it worked out this year, that's all.
Sorry for the plug.
Are there really 30 ballot worthy candidates?
:-)
30 different candidates got top-3 votes. 24 of those got elect-me votes. 17 of those got #1 votes.
So: an examination of voter-to-voter agreement. The scale runs from 0 to 100, and the score for Kelly from SD and Jim Sp is 0. The average over all pairs is 40.8, or 41.9 if you include the self-agreement scores of 100. The highest scores:
84 Daryn & Adam Schafer
83 Andrew M & Tiboreau
79 OCF & Rob Wood
79 Michael Bass & Thane of Bagarth
77 jschmeagol & Tiboreau
76 Sean Gilman & David Foss
75 Michael Bass & Max Parkinson
The lowest:
0 Kelly from SD & Jim Sp
3 Kelly from SD & Dolf Lucky
5 karlmagnus & Dr. Chaleeko
5 KJOK & Brad G
6 Kelly from SD & Eric C
7 karlmagnus & Mike Webber
8 Esteban Rivera & Mike Webber
9 karlmagnus & Brent
What does a score of 3 represent? The only candidate in common between Kelly from SD and Dolf Lucky was George Burns - 9th on one ballot, 12th on the other.
Everyone's agreement with me was at least 27 - the highest minimum score out there. (The 27 was with karlmagnus.)
Looking to Chris Cobb as the bellwether voter, agreement with him ranged from 17 (karlmagnus) to 73 (Dan G, Howie Menckel, with some other 71's and 72's.)
Oh, and rob, I am the other Cross voter. He's been on and off my ballot since we started, but he's at a high water point for now (well, until this year's class knocks him back a bit). Long career, couple good years in there to mix with the many averagish years, some catching bonus for good measure. What's not to love? :)
We appear to be locked in a peculiar HOM dance where I never vote for Beckley and you vote for many fewer NgLs than me. Too bad I have two left feet!
Here's to another 60 years of waltzing!
; )
1) He was better than Sisler, and George isn't all that far from my ballot
2) His stats were close to Childs'.
Childs is on the bottom of my ballot now (13th last year), having slid down over the years. He's on there because of a nifty peak. His only real peak advantage over Terry comes on a three-year basis. He and Terry intersect or Terry very slightly exceeds him at the other intervals I look at. Initially, therefore, I put Terry above him. However, I ultimately retained Childs at 13 and put Terry 14th because I felt that 2B was a more valuable defensive position in the 1890s than 1B was in the 1930s.
As for my number 15, it was Bill Monroe about whom I have been wavering for years and years. Monroe ceeded a variety of peak and prime advantages to Terry, and his career advantage wasn't enough, in my mind, to overcome my doubts about the sketchiness of the information available about him.
Does that sound like shiny new toy? I don't think it does, but maybe I'm wrong?
I'm much more concerned that I got Vance wrong than Terry because I had/have trouble figuring out whether Vance's 2900 innings are more meritorious than Rixey's 4 jillion.
83 Andrew M & Tiboreau
79 OCF & Rob Wood
79 Michael Bass & Thane of Bagarth
77 jschmeagol & Tiboreau
76 Sean Gilman & David Foss
75 Michael Bass & Max Parkinson
The lowest:
0 Kelly from SD & Jim Sp
3 Kelly from SD & Dolf Lucky
5 karlmagnus & Dr. Chaleeko
5 KJOK & Brad G
6 Kelly from SD & Eric C
7 karlmagnus & Mike Webber
8 Esteban Rivera & Mike Webber
9 karlmagnus & Brent
It's good to see that my ballot was eccentric enough that I wasn't lumped in with the conformists, but not too eccentric to be thrown in with the radicals. :-D
1. 1940 Lip Pike
26 out of 51 ballots (51%) - lowest ever
7 1st, 5 2nd (12 elect-me) out of 51 ballots (23.5%)
496 points out of 1226 possible (40.5%) - lowest ever
Divisive Index (1-avg of 3 % above) - 61.66
2. 1939 Max Carey
37 out of 53 ballots (69.8%)
8 1st, 2 2nd (10 elect-me) out of 53 ballots (18.9%)
580 points out of 1272 possible (45.6%)
Divisive Index - 55.24
3. 1942 Bill Terry
42 out of 53 ballots (79.2%)
3 1st, 3 2nd (6 elect-me) out of 53 ballots (11.3%) - tied for lowest % ever with Faber
571 points out of 1272 possible (44.9%)
Divisive Index - 54.85
4. 1932 Rube Foster
40 out of 51 ballots (78.4%)
2 1st, 4 2nd (6 elect-me) out of 51 ballots (11.8%)
595 points out of 1224 possible (48.6%)
Divisive Index - 53.73
5. 1939 Red Faber
44 out of 53 ballots (83%)
1 1st, 5 2nd (6 elect-me) out of 53 ballots (11.3%) - tied for lowest % ever with Terry
589 points out of 1272 possible (46.3%)
Divisive Index - 53.12
No one else is over 50. Other high indexes include:
1931 Dickey Pearce - 49.97
1930 Bob Caruthers - 45.18
1929 Sam Thompson - 44.99
1942 Dazzy Vance - 44.68
1926 Sherry Magee - 43.28
1927 Pete Hill - 42.57
1929 Bobby Wallace - 42.16
1928 Joe McGinnity - 41.46
1916 Harry Stovey - 41.07
1930 Jimmy Sheckard - 40.90
1938 Stan Coveleski - 40.83
1921 Charlie Bennett - 40.83
1926 Frank Grant - 40.56
1905 Hardy Richardson - 40.24 (lowest # of elect-me, 5 (3 1st, 2 2nd)
These just show that there was disagreement over electing players in any particular year. They do NOT show that the election was a mistake. In my opinion, it is not easy for this group as a whole to make a glaring mistake.
Ten lowest Divisive Index scores are obvious:
1917 - Cy Young - 0
1923 - Honus Wagner - 0
1933 - Walter Johnson - 0
1941 - Babe Ruth - 0
1924 - Sam Crawford - 0.06
1902 - Dan Brouthers - 0.10
1936 - Pete Alexander - 0.19
1934 - Ty Cobb - 0.84
1922 - Nap Lajoie - 1.12
1922 - Christy Mathewson - 1.18
And Speaker, 1934, not making this particular list.
But looked at in a broader perspective, 1934 was our least divisive year. Cobb wasn't unanimous 1st and Speaker wasn't unanimous 2nd. But ask any of us who had Cobb-Speaker-Collins-Lloyd-Williams as our top 5 votes but not in that order (for instance, I had Cobb-Collins-Speaker-Williams-Lloyd) and we'd all have said, of course, all 5 of them are HoMers, as fast as we can elect them.
Ranking elections as "most divisive" by average consensus score, I get:
1942 -9.0
1939 -8.5
1940 -7.0
1938 -4.5
1931 -3.4
1929 -0.5
1930 -0.4
1926 +0.9
1932 +1.1
1927 +3.3
The other end of the scale looks like this:
1934 21.9
1923 15.8
1935 15.8
1936 15.3
1922 14.9
1924 13.2
1941 was double-unanimous at the top, hence a zero on Ron's metric, but still scored only a +5.2 average consensus score, hinting at the division to come in 1942.
My records start with 1921, so I'm missing several earlier years that Ron mentioned. It's a different metric and ranks the years differently than what Ron did, but still tends to turn up most of the same years.
Ron's way of looking at it is focused on the candidates; mine is focused on the voters.
I can only assume that Kelly from SD feels as honored as I do. Apparently the voters in Enron-by-the-Sea are quite polarized.
1930 5
1931 3
1932 3
1933 4
Is it possible that it there was an unfair disadvantage to reaching the ballot in those years? I'm not saying that is the case; it probably wasn't. But any candidates who might have survived initial scrutiny to at least remain candidates were then shoved off the back of the ballot in 1934; it's the class of 1934 that makes things tough for them.
Without further commentary, here are some players who entered the ballot then.
Bruce Petway
Spot Poles
Del Pratt
Jake Daubert
Larry Gardner
Harry Hooper
Bobby Veach
George Burns (the good one)
Rube Marquard
Dutch Leonard
Dave Brown
Wilbur Cooper
Hooks Dauss
Babe Adams
Ross Youngs
Dobie Moore
Jose Mendez
Roger Peckinpaugh
Urban Shocker
Bob Shawkey
Jack Fournier
Ray Schalk
1930 5
1931 3
1932 3
1933 4
Is it possible that it there was an unfair disadvantage to reaching the ballot in those years? I'm not saying that is the case; it probably wasn't.
The 1933 Ballot is worth looking at. The top three were all new eligibles. #4 was Pike who would eventually make it in a close vote. After that, the backlog at the time was:
5. Van Haltren
6. Beckley
7. Griffith
8. Jennings
9. Waddell
10. Welch
11. Childs
12. Duffy
13. Breshnahan
14. Browning
15. Ryan
16. Mendez
17. Leach
18. Monroe
19. CJones
20. Doyle
Looks like "newbies" Sewell, Rixey & Beckwith have inserted themselves above the older backlog and Sisler, Roush, Redding and Grimes have been inserted into the middle of it. Leach has made a bit of a rally in the last 10 years.
Odd things having to do with elections seem to follow me this year: I left San Diego in Sept and the city almost gets a write-in mayor (and would have if the people writing in Donna Frye had checked the write-in box on their ballot!!) for Seattle, WA where we have the Gregoire-Rossi I win, no I win, you concede, no you concede thptptpt.
I was nowhere near FL in 2000, honest.
Next: why Judy Johnson and Jim Bottomley deserve your elect-me votes this year...
On a more serious note.
OCF's last post probably explains my lack of agreement as I had Poles, Mendez, Cooper, Burns, and Moore on my ballot and Fournier and Veach have seen it recently. "Shiny new toy" syndrome? I don't think so. I didn't start to vote for most until after the mid30s deluge. How about "Found-older-toy-in-back-of-closet-where-it-may-have-been-forgotten-for-awhile toy?" or "Showing-signs-of-wear-but-still-loved toy?"
This is opposed to my fascination with Welch and early outfielders which could be "It-is-not-junk-it's-a-classic-and-will-be-worth-something-someday toy."
(Yes, I do not want to read for class today.)
[
1925 12
1926 11
1927 10
1928 9 ]
1929 7
1930 5
1931 3
1932 3
1933 4
Is it possible that it there was an unfair disadvantage to reaching the ballot in those years?
I don't think it's true. This is one numerical representation of electing backlog candidates rather than new ones for several years. If you formulated this statistic in advance of that ballyhooed decade of opporutnity, and asked people to predict its trend, they would have predicted it well.
(1st column is 1942 current vote ranking)
44 Williamson: 1898
18 Browning: 1899-1906
13 Duffy: 1907-1915, x1909
22 Ryan: 1909
12 Waddell: 1916-1922, x1920
08 Jennings: 1920, 1938
10 Beckley: 1923-1929, x1925; 1934-1937
07 VanHaltren: 1925, 1930-1933
04 Sewell: 1939-1940
03 Rixey: 1941-1942
The above players are those which had significant support at some time, often ahead of somebody later elected (true for every election 1898-1936, x1934). In a sense, the lower-ranked of these players are the core of any reconsideration set.
HOMers that finished behind a non-HOMer in an election:
(1st column is count of # elections behind someone not elected)
30 Pike
25 Pearce
12 Caruthers
08 RFoster
07 Thompson
07 Grant
04 McVey
02 Galvin
02 Carey
01 Start
01 McGinnity
These are the HOMers whose merit was often not immediately apparent and required time and persuasion to get elected.
These lists represent one way of mapping the in-out line between HOMers and non-HOMers, based on the electoral ebb and flow.
I see several voters indicating that they don't think certain players on their ballots should be elected. Why then don't they submit a ballot with fewer than 15 names? Maybe they aren't aware of this rule. Or they just want to fit in.
Maybe they aren't aware of this rule.
I was not aware that this clause is in the Constitution.
IIRC, this clause contradicts what was agreed to in the original election process threads (see posts #12, #14, #20, scruff being Joe Dimino). We're using the MVP ballot as the basic model, so this should not be allowed, unless an official MLB MVP ballot is also allowed to be a "bullet" ballot.
I had Vance #14 on my 1942 ballot. Suppose that I preferred that Rixey or Sewell win, and therefore submitted a ballot with only 13 names. This would be constitutional, but would violate the spirit of the rule against strategic voting.
It's wrong, Cliff. Since the beginning of the project, it was understood that you have to have 15 players on the ballot. Joe must have missed that part when going over the Constitution at the time.
I'll have it corrected some time today.
The only exception was allowing ties in the 15th place spot. Fortunately, that isnt happening anymore.
I agree, Rob.
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