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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 31, 2005

1944 Ballot

Lou Gehrig (unanimous?) and second-year candidate Frankie Frisch appear to be the early favorites this election, though Goose Goslin may surprise some of us by winning the second spot.

Other notable newbies include Wes Ferrell, Waite Hoyt and Kiki Cuyler.

Returnees include Willie Foster, John Beckwith, Eppa Rixey, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley, Joe Sewell and George Van Haltren.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 31, 2005 at 01:58 AM | 121 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 31, 2005 at 02:46 PM (#1115578)
My ballot will probably be in flux for the next month. I'm working on different aspects of my system which will involve a combination of the two systems until I have the update complete. Therefore, I'm not going to campaign too hard for anybody for a while.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Lou Gehrig-1B (n/e): Was Lou ever called "Tanglefoot" in reality or only in Sam Goldwyn's "reality?" It sure beats the hell out of "Biscuit Pants"… Best major league first baseman for 1926, 1927, 1928, 1930, 1931, 1934, 1935, 1936 and 1937.

2) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (3): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. I have him pegged at his position(s) multiple times as the best for many seasons among white and black players.

3) Frankie Frisch-2B/3B (4): Not close to being the best second baseman of his era, but we can cut him a little slack in that department. :-) Best major league third baseman for 1921. Best major league second baseman for 1923. Best NL second baseman for 1930 and 1934.

4) Wes Ferrell-P (n/e): Pitching is in the experimental phase right now of my system, so Wes' position might change drastically for either good or bad in '45. But for now, he stays here.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (5): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Charley Jones-LF/CF (6): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

7) Vic Willis-P (7): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Tom York-LF (8): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Carey or Roush?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than those two during their time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870's. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

9) Burleigh Grimes (9): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

10) Pie Traynor-3B (10): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

11) Jake Beckley-1B (11): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

12) Mickey Welch-P (12): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Rube Waddell-P (13): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

14) Eppa Rixey-P (14): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

15) Goose Goslin (n/e): Like Ferrell, I don't know where he will finally wind up on my ballot until my system is fully updated, so don't beat me up yet. Best AL leftfielder for 1924. Best major league leftfielder for 1925 and 1927

Van Haltren got knocked off (again) because of the newbies.

Sewell and Griffith are admirable players who just miss in my system.

Bill Foster is extremely close; need more info.
   2. ronw Posted: January 31, 2005 at 04:23 PM (#1115770)
1944 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I have incorporated WARP and Pennants Added.)

1. Lou Gehrig The ABC trio has finally been surpassed. MVP Candidate 1926-1937. All-Star Candidate 1925, 1938 (14 HOM seasons.) PHOM 1944.

2. Frankie Frisch I think I had him one spot too low last week. MVP Candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1927. All-Star Candidate 1922, 1925-1926, 1928-1931, 1933-1934. (13 HOM seasons.) PHOM 1944.

3. Goose Goslin Lasted longer than most of the 20’s-30’s outfielders and had a decent peak. MVP candidate 1925-1926, All-Star candidate 1923-1924, 1927-1936 (14 HOM seasons.)

4. Bill Foster The best left handed pitcher in Negro Leagues history. Generally accepted to be in the all-time Negro Leagues rotation. That’s enough for me.

5. John Beckwith Great hitter who has been tarnished by history, not unlike Dick Allen. PHOM 1942.

6. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

7. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

8. Jimmy Ryan Had a nice peak 1888-1891. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

9. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. Looking at measures other than Win Shares, he barely sneaks by Grimes. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

10. Wes Ferrell Best pitcher peak on the board, may rate higher than Rixey/Grimes in subsequent years. MVP Candidate 1930, 1935-1936. All-Star Candidate 1929, 1931-1934, 1937. (9 HOM seasons)

11. Burleigh Grimes I think he is being overlooked by the electorate, especially given his 1918-1924 peak. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

12. Dobie Moore I realized my Hughie Jennings argument (one or two more great seasons would put him over the top) applies to add Moore to my ballot.

13. Dick Lundy If actually a 122 OPS+ hitter, he deserves to rate higher. Of course, if actually a 138 OPS+ hitter, Ben Taylor should be on my ballot, instead of just off.

14. Bill Monroe Lack of documentation hurts him.

15. Tommy Leach Consistently at the top of his weaker league. MVP candidate 1908. All-Star candidate 1901-1907, 1909-1910, 1913-1914. (12 HOM seasons)


Joe Sewell - Looks like the best of the available major league infielders to me, but is looking less impressive over time. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown, Vance or perhaps even Waddell. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. Pitchers ahead of him include Foster, Rixey, Grimes, Ferrell, Redding, Mendez, Mays, Willis and Cooper. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Kiki Cuyler – Nope, not enough for an outfielder. MVP Candidate 1925, All-Star Candidate 1924, 1926, 1928-1931, 1934, 1936. (9 HOM seasons.)

Waite Hoyt – Apparently a solid broadcaster as well as a solid pitcher, but not really HOM material. Never MVP Candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1925, 1927-1928, 1934-1935. (9 HOM seasons.)

Missing from my PHOM:

Terry (will make it some day
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Vance (will make it some day)
Faber (may never make it, even with the peak adjustment)
Thompson (will never make it)
   3. karlmagnus Posted: January 31, 2005 at 05:14 PM (#1115866)
Lou’s a no-brainer, Goslin’s well up the ballot, Cuyler fairly well off it, as is Hoyt. Ferrell’s a comp to Mays, but 15% less career and significantly inferior. Dykes way off, under 100 OPS+.

1. (N/A) Lou Gehrig. Yes, OK, FINALLY we get a 1B better than Beckley. Fewer hits and triples, though!

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

5. Goose Goslin 2738 hits, 128 OPS. Sisler beats him largely because of peak, Beckley because of fielding and longevity. TB+BB/PA .536, TB+BB/Outs .854, but better hitting era than Sisler.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

9. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: January 31, 2005 at 05:15 PM (#1115874)
10. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

11. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

12. (N/A) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP, decided I’d been undervaluing him, so moved him onto the ballot.

13. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9) Sam Leever. Dropped him a bit, since nobody shares my enthusiasm – pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

14. (N/A-7-13-11-13) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 Downgrade a bit because of short career and Hornsby is a LOT better (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

15. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was.

16. (N/A-14) Frankie Frisch. He was just about as good as Rice, for slightly shorter period, but played 2B so here seems about right. TB+BB/PA .462, TB+BB/Outs .707 significantly worse than Childs and similar to Sewell, but longer career.

17. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

18. John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson

19. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

20. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

21. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

22. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays.

23. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

24. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134. His unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

25. Wes Ferrell Hon. Mention really, because of his hitting. Even Mays is only hovering around 15, and Ferrell not as good a pitcher, for not as long.
26. (N/A) Dick Lundy Just a few spots below Sewell, based on his MLEs.
27. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
28. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
29. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
30. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
31. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
32. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.

33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits, OPS+125, shorter career than Ryan and van H. puts him here. TB+BB/PA 502, TB+BB/Outs .798, long way short of Goslin
34. Jack Quinn
35. Deacon McGuire
36. Tony Mullane
37. Bill Foster Covaleski minus, I think – shortish career.
38. Pye Traynor
39. Jim McCormick
40. Dick Redding
41. Joe Judge
42. Edd Roush
43. Spotswood Poles.
44. Larry Doyle
45. Roger Bresnahan.
46. Wayte Hoyt. Better than Pennock, not as good as Quinn, so about here.
47. Harry Hooper.
48. Jules Thomas.
49. Wilbur Cooper
50. Bruce Petway.
51. Jack Clements
52. Bill Monroe
53. Jose Mendez
54. Herb Pennock
55. Chief Bender
56. Ed Konetchy
57. Jesse Tannehill
58. Bobby Veach
59. Lave Cross
60. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Dropped him 1, as overall, Cross was better, too.
61. Tom York
   5. TomH Posted: January 31, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1115943)
1944 Ballot
easy choices to enshrine allow me to comfortably vote early this week; go ahead, elect any of my top 5 and I'll be happy.

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(#) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[#] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Lou Gehrig {new}
On my alltime list, #16. #6 among electees to date (BR/HW/WJ/TC/OC), although that Grove fella has already passed him too. Would not make my all-time team, however, because I prefer to put Musial at first base.

2-Frankie Frisch (4) [3]
Not Hornsby or Collins or Lajoie. But sure beats Childs or McPhee or Doyle.

3-Goose Goslin {new}

4-Bill Foster (3) [4]
Consensus as one of the top NeL pitchers. Would like a longer career to put him higher.

Again, do I have the SNTS (Shiny New Toy Syndrome)? Nah…we’ve merely already honored all the guys I wanted to, so the new guys come out on top.

5-Clark Griffith (5) [7]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats. But still not as the good as many of the new guys.

“Hall of very good” starts here…
6-George Van Haltren (6) [10]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
7-John Beckwith (8) [5]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew, with a shorter career and some baggage. Which ain’t bad at all.
8-Wes Ferrell {new}
Combo of above-average pitching and fine bat put him here. Value of Waddell, even though as different as could be.
9-John McGraw (7) [34]
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP isn’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us.
10-Joe Sewell (9) [9]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. Not quite Alan Trammell, but beats Dave Concepcion.
11-Larry Doyle (10) [23]
A 2Bman with such a high OWP deserves attention.
12-Rube Waddell (11) [15]
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit. We’ve already elected 8 pitchers from his prime – that nudges him down a bit. But his big KOs would have made him a bigger stud in most other eras, and that bumps him back up.
13-Cupid Childs (12) [17]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
14-Roger Bresnahan (13) [28]
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
15-Tommy Leach (14) [14]
As a third baseman he’s high on my ballot. As an OFer he’s off. He lands here. Looks really similar to Pie Traynor.

Sorry but
Pie Traynor (15) [32]
Fine player. Not as good as Heinie Groh. I’m not into buying the ‘old guys’ wisdom hook, line, and sinker, but LOTS of people thought he was a great player, and that gives him a small boost.
Frank Chance (off) [54]
More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Highest WS/yr among any ballot-eligible player by a large margin (>2 WS/yr).
Jake Beckley (off) [8]
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM tho.
Dick Lundy (off) [25]
I just haven’t studied him enough to place him confidently. Next ballot, I promise.
Eppa Rixey (off) [6]
115 ERA+ , in front of a good defensive team in the weaker league. Massive amount of career innings doesn’t quite do it.
George Sisler
If only his severe injury had been even one or two years later :(
Mickey Welch
His career doesn’t look much different than Rixey’s, who is also on my ballot bubble.
Hughie Jennings
Great for 5 years. If we had a PEAK Hall of Merit, Hughie would be a shoo-in.
Wally Schang, Hugh Duffy, Jimmy Ryan also near the edge.
   6. Dolf Lucky Posted: January 31, 2005 at 07:24 PM (#1116170)
1 (-)Lou Gehrig--When you have the best career, peak, and prime on the board, the call is easy. Also the subject of my favorite Denis Leary joke.

2 (3)Frankie Frisch--Would have been a fun player to watch. Peak is a bit lacking, but definitely strong enough to get him in.

3 (4)Willie Foster--Best Negro pitcher? Maybe not, but very likely in the top 2-3. Puts him here for now. Luckily, we have a little time to sort him out.

4 (-)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

5 (8)Joe Sewell
6 (9)John Beckwith--Due to defensive concerns, I'd have a hard time putting Beckwith above Sewell. However, a reconsideration of him means he'll probably be on the ballot for awhile.

7 (7)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

8 (10)Donie Bush--Gets extra points for being a top-notch leadoff type.

9 (-)Goose Goslin--One of my favorite all-time players. Trying to be a bit cautious at first, but he'll probably move up once Gehrig and Frisch are gone.

10 (-)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

11 (-)Duke Farrell--Catchers are by far the most underrepresented position right now, and Farrell makes it on as a result.

12 (6)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

13 (12)Burleigh Grimes--There's a new WARP adjustment, and Grimes appears to be the big winner, placing his career above other pitchers not named Vance. Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

14 (11)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

15 (13)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

Dropping out: Judy Johnson, Carl Mays, George J. Burns.

Top 10 omissions: Clark Griffith could make it back on in time, although with 6 pitchers already on the ballot, hard to say who would drop off in favor of him. Jake Beckley, George Van Haltren, and Eppa Rixey all lack the requisite peak to see the ballot.
   7. yest Posted: January 31, 2005 at 08:46 PM (#1116354)
1. Lou Gehrig this shows everyone (except active players) who had 20, of (100 run seasons + 100 rbis seasons + 200 hits seasons )
1.------Lou Gehrig-----------34
2-------Hank Aaron---------29
3.------Babe Ruth-----------28
Tie 4.--Ty Cobb-------------27
Tie 4.--Stan Musial----------27
Tie 6.--Jimmie Foxx---------26
Tie 6.--Charlie Gehringer----26
8.------Al Simmons---------24
9.------Willie Mays---------23
10.----Sam Thompson------21
Tie 11.-Ed Delahanty-------20
Tie 11.-Pete Rose----------20
Tie 11.-Goose Goslin-------20
(makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler finished 4 in the NL in batting average in 1928 (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Frankie Frisch won 8 pennants (made my personal HoM in 1943)
5. Goose Goslin see Gehrig (makes my personal HoM this year)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
14. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
15. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
16. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
17. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
18. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
19. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
20. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
21. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
22. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
23. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
24. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
26. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Bill Foster I’m not confident in mles
Tommy Leach I don’t even understand the argument for him
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
   8. Daryn Posted: January 31, 2005 at 08:55 PM (#1116376)
1. Lou Gehrig – what are the odds of contracting an eponymous disease?

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

3. Frankie Frisch – has those hits I like and he played second base quite well. Nothing special, but better than the backlog.

4. Goose Goslin -- a step above Beckley, closer to Wheat and Heilmann, who I also had higher than Beckley.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

6. George Sisler – Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter.

7. Bill Foster – Consensus has him better than Redding, and Redding is good enough for me (in a vacuum – ie without peer review, I’d probably have Redding ahead of Foster, and Foster as low as twelfth, in Vance’s old spot right behind Waddell). I’m going to have to think about it.

8. Burleigh Grimes – takes Faber’s spot on my ballot. I like the wins, don’t like the ERA+. Welch-lite.

9. Eppa Rixey – back to his original spot in a dead heat with Grimes and Faber (the latter now elected).

10. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

11. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

12. Sam Rice – close to Beckley – I’ve dropped him after five years of insisting that he was equal to Beckley and Sisler. I took another look at his OPS+ and some traditional stats and feel comfortable with him here.

13. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

14. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely worse than Grimes and barely better than Ferrell, Hoyt (who I am surprised is not making any ballots), Mendez, Joss, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin. I have Ferrell next in line and he may move up – I like hitting pitchers.

15. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

16. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. I don’t see him as a HoMer though.

19. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence. The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS. I’m going with 95% of Cobb’s estimate. I like him better than Monroe and Moore but I’m not sure he’s Hornsby-dark.

21. Wes Ferrell

28. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

35. Kiki Cuyler

36. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great.
   9. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 31, 2005 at 09:35 PM (#1116455)
1. Lou Gehrig - (NR, PHOM 1944) Not much to say here. Best 1B ever.

2. Frankie Frisch - (3, PHOM 1944) Good peak and decent career. That he had to wait while guys like Bill Terry and Red Faber got in quickly is merely a quirk in our system.

3. Hughie Jennings - (4, PHOM 1938) This is now my 10th election and in those ten elections the only Major LEague players who have had peaks better than or equal too Jennings were Collins, Ruth, Hornsby, and now Gehrig. In memory of Johnny, "Weird, Wild stuff!"

4. Bill Foster - (5) Still haven't gotten a chance to really take a good look at him. He may be better than Jennings, but with how this election looks to shake out I can wait until next week to do it.

5. Goose Goslin - (NR) Best corner OFer on the board. he peak is good and I like his career length. Good hitter.

6. Cupid Childs - (6, PHOM 1939) Best 2B of the 1890's, second best 2B of the 1800's.

6a. Bill Terry
7. Clark Griffith - (7) I may be overrating him in comparision to Rixey and Faber but I find it hard to believe that there were only 3 HOM quality pitchers in the 1890's.

8. Eppa Rixey - (8) of all the eligible 20th century pitchers, only Grimes comes close to Rixey in IP. When you factor in war credit, Rixey gains a sizable lead. He also has a better ERA+ and DERA. Should be the top pitcher for career voters.

9. Wes Ferrell - (NR) He had a really nice peak and should probably be a bit higher. For some reason I am less impressed with high peak, short career pitchers than with position players of the same mold. This is something I should probably just get over.

10. Hugh Duffy - (9) Best 19th century outfielder on the board and best CFer. He had a better peak than GVH and Ryan and it isn't like he followed the Hack Wilson career path.

11. Dick Redding - (10) 2nd best NeL pticher of the dead ball era. Peaked at number 6 on my ballot, but has been pushed down due to an influx of worthy candidates in recent years.

11a. Max Carey
12. Rube Waddell - (11) Really nice peak and strong career DERA. I understand that some wont' like him because he didn't pitch enough innings,but he packed as much punch into those innings as anyone currently eligible.

13. George Van Haltren - I(13) am not really a career voter. However, compared to the likes of Beckley, Hooper, Cross, and Rics GVH had a nice peak to go along with his long career.

14. Dobie Moore - (14) The Black Hughie Jennings.

15. John Beckwith - (15) Great hitter. I am still not convinced that he would have been a SS/3B in the Majors. Very similar to Dick Allen. I believe that like Allen he would have started at 3B and moved to 1B midway through his career. He would be higher in any year that didn't include this many good candidates.
   10. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 31, 2005 at 09:49 PM (#1116480)
16-20 Mendez, Sisler, Browning, Bresnahan, Lundy
21-25 Veach, Roush, Leach, Monroe, Doyle,
26-30 Shocker, Cravath, Wilson, Sewell, Traynor
31-35 R. Thomas, Chance, Joss, Burns, Ryan
36-40 F. Jones, Schang, Cuyler, Evers
41-45 Grimes, Rice, Konetchy, Cicotte, C. Jones
46-51 Welch, Beckley, Mays, Tinker, Bancroft


Cuyler is the only guy that gest a top 50 nod that isnt' on my ballot as well. I think he was a good player, but far form a HOMer. I have him as the fifth best corner outfielder right now behind Goslin, Browning, Veach, and Burns. I ran Jimmy Dykes through my system and he barely even registered.

Required disclosures

Geroge Sisler is a player that I like. The only reason he is at #17 is because of the very strong ballot that we have this year. He has been in my top 10 before but I tihnk I was overrating him. He didn't compare that favorably to Bill Terry in my system and Terry is right on the line for the HOM.

Tommy Leach is another player that at one time was in my top 10, I belive he peaked at #5 or 6, but has had a fall from grace. I realized that I was making the mistake of comparing his entire career to 3B. He played a lot of CF and Win Shares overrated CFers defense in my opinion. Hence, he fall out of my top 20 in the last two weeks.

I dont' really like either Mickey Welch or Jake Beackley. The only reason they are in my top 50 is because so many other people like them. Beckley barely had a peak and is hurt dearly in my system for this.

As for Welch, his candidacy seems to hinge on those 300 victories. However, I believe that had he pitched at any point after 1894 he wouldn't have gotten to that number. Hell, he may not even have reached 200 if he had pitched in the 20s and 30s.
   11. Jim Sp Posted: January 31, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1116750)
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.

Hoyt, Dykes. Nice careers, not close to the ballot.

1)Gehrig--easy choice.
2)Goslin--comfortably over the line.
3)Frisch--Contemporaries at 2B are good hitters (e.g. Hornsby, Gehringer, Lazzeri, Grantham, Bishop, Myer, Herman), so he doesn’t stand out as much as I expected.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
5)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. Stands out from the extreme lack of catching candidates recently.
6)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
7)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. I might regret this, but he made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
8)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
9)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
10)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
11)Bill Foster--consensus seems to have him around Coveleski/Faber/Rixey, I’ll yield to those who know more than I. Was #3 on 1943 prelim.
12)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
13)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
14)Cuyler--I think he’ll be below the in/out line.
15)Bancroft--Better than I thought.

GriffithThis one hurts, I was an original Griffith booster. In my PHoM but off the ballot.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
   12. Rusty Priske Posted: February 01, 2005 at 12:16 PM (#1117593)
PHoM this year are Lou Gehrig and Goose Goslin.

1. Lou Gehrig (new) PHoM 1944

Not even close.

2. Frankie Frisch (2,x,x) PHoM 1943

Clear elect me for the second year in a row (which, of course, forces a debate on the use of the word 'clear') :)

3. Goose Goslin (new) PHoM 1944

Edges ahead of Foster on reliability of record.

4. Bill Foster (5,x,x)

If he is good enough to convince me to push GVH down, he deserves induction.

5. George Van Haltren (3,2,7) PHoM 1912

Will he be on my ballot when we are voting for 2005 inductees? My earliest PHoM induction not to make it in to the HoM.

6. Jake Beckley (4,4,4) PHoM 1913

I am honestly surprised that he hasn't made it in yet. Second earliest PHoM induction not to make it in to the HoM.

7. Eppa Rixey (6,1,5) PHoM 1939

The first place ballot was the abberation. Still deserves a spot.

8. Mickey Welch (7,5,3) PHoM 1929


9. Tommy Leach (8,3,6) PHoM 1921


10. Edd Roush (10,7,10)

11. George Sisler (12,6,8) PHoM 1940

A little overrated by some, imo.

12. Hugh Duffy (13,8,11) PHoM 1930

Definition of 'hanger-on'.

13. Sam Rice (11,9,9) PHoM 1940

14. Jimmy Ryan (14,10,14) PHoM 1914

Rice and Ryan are quite underrateed, imo.

15. Dobie Moore (x,13,x) PHoM 1932

16-20. Lundy, Sewell, Griffith, Hooper, Powell
21-25. Childs, Doyle, Grimes, Monroe, Cuyler
26-30. Mullane, Streeter, Poles, Burns, White
   13. Michael Bass Posted: February 01, 2005 at 03:29 PM (#1117740)
yest posted:

Bill Foster I’m not confident in mles

I actually think this is a reasonable stance; that one could believe its simply not possible to construct major league equivalents from the NL stats we have. I don't agree with this stance, but it's reasonable.

But if you're not going by MLEs, that pretty much leaves expert opinion. And if you're going by expert opinion, how are Judy Johnson and Willie Foster (to name a couple, it could be someone other than these two depending on the expert in question) not at least in your top 26?

I guess my question is, if you're not going by MLEs (like I said, perfectly reasonable), what process are you using to rank Negro Leaguers?
   14. andrew siegel Posted: February 01, 2005 at 03:43 PM (#1117762)
A ballot full of questions:

(1) Lou Gehrig (new)-- What would his final stats have looked like if he hadn't died?

(2) Frankie Frisch (3rd)-- Does he make the top 100 players of All-Time?

(3) Bill Foster (4th)-- A two-fer: How come his reputation exceeds his surviving statistics? Can we assume that Negro League pitchers would have had the same usage patterns in the major leagues, or does that over- or under-rate them?

(4) Goose Goslin (new)-- Is he better than Duffy, Van Haltren, and Jones or did his fans just live long enough to bias us?

(5) Hughie Jennings (5th)-- Did he have the Willie Mays level peak WARP suggets or the Hack Wilson level peak Win Shares finds?

(6) Hugh Duffy (6th)-- Do his stratospheric early 1890s WS totals represent real ability or just the fortune of getting lots of AB's for teams that routinely exceeded their Pythagorean projections?

(7) George Van Haltren (8th)-- Was a solid CF worth more defensively in the 1890s than a solid 1B?

(8) Charley Jones (7th)-- Another two-fer: DOes he deserve full, partial, or no credit for his balcklisted years? How much do we need to reduce his high OPS+ numbers because of the sample size and standard deviation issues with the early seasons fo organized ball?

(9) John Beckwith (11th)-- Should I evaluate how much he helped his teams win in the negro leagues or how much he would have helped his teams win in the major leagues?

(10) Eppa Rixey (14th)-- How much, if any, should I dock him for league quality?

(11) Wes Ferrell (new)-- If Dazzy Vance had pitched 10-15% fewer innings in his career, where would he rank?

(12) Cupid Childs (9th)-- How do you let go of guys who you strongly believe should have been elected previously but now rank below a slew of new candidates?

(13) Edd Roush (12th)-- How much should his lack of in-season durability and the lower quality of his league hold him back?

(14) Dobie Moore (10th)-- How much credit should he get for the Army years?

(15) Burleigh Grimes (13th)-- From 1918 to 1931 he was 252-170, but with an ERA+ under 115: how did he pull that off?

Next 15 in order: Sewell (15th), Chance, Willis, Beckley, Sisler, Ryan, Bresnahan, Schang, Mendez, Lundy, Doyle, Griffith, Redding, Veach, Leach.

Required disclosure: You can see that Beckley (19th) and, to a lesser extent, Griffith (27th) are close. They are held back by poor peak and lack of durability when compared with contemporaries, respectively.

Cuyler is in the top 50, but probably not the top 40. Hoyt is somewhere between 50 and 100.
   15. Buddha Posted: February 01, 2005 at 05:01 PM (#1117932)
1) Gehrig

2) Frisch: Fielding ability at 2b puts him just above Goslin.

3) Goslin: Long, productive corner outfield career. Similar to Simmons but without the time in CF.

4) Sisler: Still seems a bit underrated here. One hell of hitter, even after his injury.

5) Sewell: Consistently the best at his position at the time.

6) Waddell: Still love the K's and the ERA+. Dominating pitcher with a dimestore discount head. He'll never make it, but I'll keep voting for him anyway.

7) Duffy: What a peak. 187 OPS+ is nothing to sneeze at.

8) Beckley: Long, long career of being very good.

9) Griffith: ditto

10) Childs: Not so long career of being very good.

11) Beckwith: Seems to have a lot of support among the people who do research into the Nlers. Moving him up my ballot.

12) Welch: See Griffith/Beckley

13) Cuyler: Similar to Duffy but without the enormous peak year.

14) Bill Foster: reconsidering NLers, but still don't think the MLE's are worth that much. Just going by the opinions here of people more learned than I, and then discounting them for what seems to be the built-in bias of falling in love with your favorite subject.

15) Larry Doyle: Love those 2bmen.
   16. jhwinfrey Posted: February 01, 2005 at 05:23 PM (#1118003)
Joe Nuxhall makes his major league debut on June 10, a month and a half before his 16th birthday. He ends the season with a 67.50 ERA. Ouch.
On June 26, the Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers play a bizarre charity exhibition game: one team plays the field for an inning against each of the other two teams, then they switch places. Final score: Dodgers 5, Yankees 1, Giants 0.
And on October 1st, the Browns win the pennant.

1944 Ballot

My PHOM inductees are Gehrig and Frisch.

1. Lou Gehrig (ne) His disease-shortened career keeps him from ranking higher on my ballot. Oh, wait... (1944)

2. Bill Foster (2) An elite pitcher, in my opinion. (1943)

3. Frank Frisch (3) Struck out more than 18 times in a season only twice. (1944)

4. Jake Beckley (6,3,5,4,4,3,3,4,8,5,4,2,2,2,3,3,1,4) 802 career extra base hits, and he still ranks 4th all-time in triples, the home runs of the 19th century. (1927)

5. Mickey Welch "He plants his right foot forward and scrapes a pile of dirt, then expectorates, and a moment later wipes the perspiration from his brow, when suddenly he doubles himself up and throws with all his might. Batters say that he is the best pitcher in the league." --Brooklyn Daily Eagle, 11/25/1888, from the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. (1926)

6. Eppa Rixey (6,7,7,3,7) (1939)
7. Burleigh Grimes (5,6,4,8) (1940)
Grimes and Rixey rank very close, with Grimes the better hitter and fielder, but Rixey getting less support from his teams.

8. Ben Taylor (11,8,8,6,4,3,4,5,5,9) He keeps getting pushed down my ballot, but I still think he's very comparable to Beckley. A .354 average over 18 seasons has to count for something. (1938)

9. Tommy Leach (9,7,5,7,8,8,6,10) More deserving than Sheckard or Groh, in my opinion. (1942)

10. Dick Lundy (11)
11. John Beckwith (21,12)
Two Negro League infielders with good hitting skills. Hard to separate these two, so I'm just lumping them together for now.

12. Carl Mays Isn't it about time we elected a submariner? (1939)

13. Dick Redding (13,11,15,15,10,9,14)
14. Jose Mendez (4,8,13,13,11,10,8,14,14,11,10,15) (1932)
Another similar pair. Redding has the better reputation, but I'm not sure that Mendez wasn't his equal. Either way, I'm still voting for both.

15. Jim McCormick (15,nr,13,15,nr,15,12,11,9,8,9,12,11,16) A no-brainer for the Scottish HoM.

Other newcomers:
18. Goose Goslin--I'm standing by my initial appraisal of Goslin. He was good, but not great. I have him ranked just behind Roush, ahead of Magee and Poles, and well ahead of Van Haltren and Duffy. With another deluge of worthy candidates coming in '46, I don't think Goslin will ever make my ballot, but he has a good shot at my PHoM.
27. Waite Hoyt--His lengthy career serves him well in my rankings.
29. Wes Farrell--Just behind Coveleski and well ahead of Vance.
63. Kiki Cuyler--Not much to distinguish him from the also-rans. I have him just ahead of George J. Burns.
99. Jimmy Dykes--He'll be bumped out of my top 100 in '46.

38. George Van Haltren--A sure-fire HOVGer.
42. Joe Sewell--like Sisler, not good enough for long enough. Looks like we've dodged the election bullet with him.
49. Clark Griffith--I like Griffith about as much as I liked Vance; I recognize their appeal, but they don't fit my ballot criteria.
   17. SWW Posted: February 01, 2005 at 05:23 PM (#1118004)
I like the Browns this year. Call me crazy.

1944 Ballot
1) Henry Louis Gehrig – “The Iron Horse”
It’s startling to realize that he was probably playing with the effects of ALS for the last three or four seasons of his career. A truly extraordinary athlete, and a helpful dose of skepticism for the next time you hear someone called "courageous" for playing with a sprained wrist.
2) Frank Francis Frisch – “The Fordham Flash”
I’m amused how many people are mentioning his future career on the Veterans’ Committee. I can’t hold it against him when he racked up such an impressive career.
3) Leon Allen Goslin – “Goose”
I tried to be patient, to avoid appearing too favorable to a first-time candidate. Didn’t matter. Total career numbers are just too good. Not far behind Frisch.
4) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
He seems like he should be all peak, but he’s still a right-decent ballplayer when you look at his non-prime years. I like the balance.
5) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I seem to be Burleigh’s best friend, so I went back and looked at the numbers again. And I’m still his best friend. Durable career, a ton of black and gray ink…I’m hard-pressed to see the problem.
6) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
7) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”

A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too.
8) Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Can somebody confirm the pronunciation of his name? Is it SOO-ull or SEE-well?
9) Hugh Duffy
It’s hard to believe that he once ranked as high as 5th in the voting. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.
10) William Hendrick Foster – “Willie”
A difficult candidate to place. I eventually settled here. By all accounts a better Negro League candidate than Redding. Some say he’s similar to Vance – and this is about where I had Vance.
11) Edd J Roush
Nice all-around numbers, and several MVP-type seasons. Looking at outfielders, I decided I wasn’t giving Edd enough credit. So he gets a small bump.
12) Carl William Mays
After Burleigh and Bill, there’s a real mollybang of great-but-not-outstanding pitchers. Carl is still benefiting by favorable analyses from James Vail and Bill James, as well as an enviable peak. Not a lot of love for Carl, though. And I gather that’s never been Carl’s strong suit.
13) John Beckwith
I spent a lot of time looking over the Cobb projections and the attendant discussion. I have a sneaking suspicion that what I don’t like about Albert Belle is what I don’t like about Beckwith. But right now, the numbers justify inclusion on my ballot, so I’m moving him up.
14) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Whenever he looks like he’s about to fall off my ballot, I pull him back up. Which probably means I’m underrating him. I think I’m hung up on the winning percentage. But I also stump for Blyleven, so I’m not sure what my problem is.
15) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
Both Leach and Larry Doyle dropped in my revamp. I’m giving Tommy the edge on a greater career.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Clark Calvin Griffith
What can I say: I’ve got six pitchers ahead of him. His is an interesting mix, but the overall picture is not outstanding one way or the other.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangable with Jimmy Ryan. He’s good, but it’s not enough.
   18. OCF Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:03 PM (#1118539)
1944 ballot.
1. Henry Louis (Ludwig Heinrich) Gehrig (new) Somehow avoided being called "Heinie". Amazing consistency, amazing prime.
2, Leon Allen Goslin (new) Yeah, I know we're probably too generous to flank outfielders. It is true that amoung mere mortals, he's the best major league hitter on the ballot. Comparable in value to Zack Wheat or Joe Kelley.
3. George Van Haltren (1, 2, 3, 1, 3) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates.
4. Frankie Frisch (----, 4) Since I haven't run any modern middle infielders, I don't know where he would fit on the scale with Alomar, Biggio, Knoblauch, Larkin, Trammell, Whitaker, Sandberg - but the context is probably in there somewhere. I can compare him to the man he succeeded as 2B of the Giants: Doyle. They're 12 years apart in age and 12 years apart in beginning of career (1907, 1919). They were even teammates in 1919 and 1920. (Frisch played 3B; he didn't move to second until after Doyle was gone.) If I evaluate them by context-adjusted RCAA and sort their years from best to worst, Doyle comes off as the better offensive player for every year from 1 through 13, and by healthy margins in the best year and the 3rd through 8th best years. Most of the years beyond 13, Frisch was below league average.

So Doyle was the better hitter. But Frisch had the longer career, by over 500 games, and Frisch was a much better defensive infielder. Does the defense and the hang-around value make up for the offensive difference? Did the NL recover to being the equal of the AL is Frisch's time, whereas it had been weaker in Doyle's time? In any case, I've decided to put Frisch ahead of Doyle. (They'll both be blown away pretty soon by Charlie Gehringer.)
5. Joe Sewell (3, 5, 5, 3, 5) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.
6. John Beckwith (-, 5, 7, 5, 7) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit.
7. Larry Doyle (4, 4, 6, 4, 6) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
8. Eppa Rixey (5, 6, 8, 7, 8) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
9. Willie Foster (----. 9) He could be very similar to Vance and Coveleski, already elected.
10. Jake Beckley (6, 7, 9, 8, 10) Not much peak, long career.
11. Wes Ferrell (new) Nice peak, but flamed out early. Stopped hitting, so he didn't have a Joe Wood career path.
12. Clarence A. Childs (-, 7, 8, 11, 9, 11) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
13. Hugh Duffy (9, 9, 12, 11, 12) 38th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
14. Edd Roush (10, 10, 13, 11, 13) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
15. George Sisler (11, 11, 14, 12, 14) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
16. Pie Traynor (--, 10, 13, 15) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy.
17. Rube Waddell (12, 12, 15, 14, 16) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
18. Jose Mendez (13, 13, 16, 15, 17)
19. Frank Chance (14, 14, 17, 16, 18) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time. Still has a chance to get back to my ballot.
20. Roger Bresnahan (15, 15, 18, 17, 19) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
21. Hazen Shirley Cuyler (new) I'll peg his case to Ryan's.
22. Jimmy Ryan (16, 16, 19, 18, 20) Not beyond reconsideration.
23. Dick Redding (17, 17, 20, 19, 21)
24. Hugh Jennings (18, 19, 21, 20, 22) All he's got is 5 years.
25. Wally Schang (19, 20, 22, 21, 23) A much better hitter than most catchers. Not the hitter Bresnahan is, but closer to being a pure catcher.

The cluster of players fighting to get back up to the #25 spot include Rice, Cravath, Leach, Luque, Lindstrom, Maranville, Poles, Taylor, Willis, Welch, Burns, Griffith, and Hack Wilson.
Griffith languishes down here largely because he's not that high on career IP for his times.
Dick Lundy: still needs consideration.
Waite Hoyt: A fine pitcher. A steady, long-career inning eater. Ranks just a little behind Rixie, in a group with Cooper and Powell. Hard to separate his value from the quality of his teams.
Jimmy Dykes: Played forever. Didn't do enough hitting to make the ballot.
Red Lucas: As in Ferrell's case, his pinch-hitting has to be judged against a higher standard than his hitting in games he pitched. Only pitched 2500 innings.
   19. jimd Posted: February 01, 2005 at 09:14 PM (#1118558)
(11) Wes Ferrell (new)-- If Dazzy Vance had pitched 10-15% fewer innings in his career, where would he rank?

One interesting thing about these two pitchers is that Ferrell's last season as a regular starter was when he was 30. Vance's first season as a regular starter was at 31.

It seems natural then to splice the two together, ignoring Vance's early tryouts and Ferrell's later comeback attempts. You get Vance Ferrell, a 5519 IP pitcher with a 387-261 record, and a long extended prime, who would be part of the debate for 2nd greatest pitcher of all time. Someone commented earlier that Cy Young had two back-to-back HOM careers (NL then AL). Who knows, maybe he was right.
   20. OCF Posted: February 01, 2005 at 10:54 PM (#1118861)
Following up on jimd's #19: My RA+ Pythag record for Vance Ferrell, offense-adjusted in the Ferrell seasons, comes out as 376-237, for 371 equivalent FWP. V.F. exceeded 25 single-season equivalent FWP 6 times - at age 22, 23, 27, 33, 37, and 39. On pure career value I'd rank that behind Alexander but ahead of Mathewson. However, the peak - or even scattered best years - accomplishments do not really match up with the likes of Alexander, Nichols, or Mathewson.

There's a 4-year span right in the middle of the V.F. career, from age 29 through 32, that's sort of a hole: equivalent records of 15-16, 7-12, 15-13, and 18-13. Of course, the splice is right in the middle of that.

When his name came up, I also separated Walter Johnson into two HoM careers. The halves of Johnson are so far ahead on rate stats that I'd take either one ahead of either Vance or Ferrell.
   21. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:05 PM (#1118878)
"(5) Hughie Jennings (5th)-- Did he have the Willie Mays level peak WARP suggets or the Hack Wilson level peak Win Shares finds?"

I think that it pretty learly the WARP-level peak that is correct here. Or maybe I should say that his raw WS peak is misleading. When you schedule adjust for Jennings 1894-1898 seasons you get a peak that reaches up over 40 WS.
   22. yest Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:06 PM (#1118879)
But if you're not going by MLEs, that pretty much leaves expert opinion. And if you're going by expert opinion, how are Judy Johnson and Willie Foster (to name a couple, it could be someone other than these two depending on the expert in question) not at least in your top 26?

I guess my question is, if you're not going by MLEs (like I said, perfectly reasonable), what process are you using to rank Negro Leaguers?

I explained how I vote for Negro Leaguers In Chris Torriantt's thread.

I'm still not sure where to place Bill Foster the only conclusion I came up to on him is he isn't in my top 20.
   23. jimd Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:29 PM (#1118910)
You get Vance Ferrell, a 5519 IP pitcher with a 387-261 record, and a long extended prime, who would be part of the debate for 2nd greatest pitcher of all time.

My RA+ Pythag record for Vance Ferrell,

Is young VF's record OPS+ adjusted, and old VF's record defense adjusted? These are both pitchers that were significantly better than their traditional pitching stats indicate.

The halves of Johnson are so far ahead on rate stats

That's why Barnie is #1 alltime, particularly when you adjust for him being an above average hitter (for a pitcher) who suffered with some bad defenses, too.
   24. OCF Posted: February 01, 2005 at 11:49 PM (#1118955)
jimd: the young VF (i.e., Ferrell) was adjusted for his own offense. The old one (i.e., Vance) wasn't adjusted for anything; his relatively poor defensive support and his own weak hitting may be a wash. The biggest reason why the RA+ equivalent winning percentage is better than the actual winning percentage (what you had in #19) is offensive support, especially for Vance. But the equivalent decisions are lower than the actual decision becuase Ferrell had a high number of actual decisions per IP.

As for Johnson - of course I agree. He's hard to argue against, isn't he?
   25. jimd Posted: February 02, 2005 at 12:26 AM (#1119028)
There's a 4-year span right in the middle of the V.F. career, from age 29 through 32, that's sort of a hole: equivalent records of 15-16, 7-12, 15-13, and 18-13.

Sort of like Roger Clemens, 1993-95, age 30-32.

Thanks for the followup with "Vance Ferrell", OCF. It was fun.
   26. The Honorable Ardo Posted: February 02, 2005 at 01:27 AM (#1119172)
My 1944 ballot:

1. (new) Lou Gehrig. A natural hitter with no playing time issues. His strength of character ranks favorably with anyone who has ever played major league baseball.

2. (new-6) Bill Foster. The NeL experts place him in the Coveleski/Vance mode. I see him as a Vance-plus, with extensive postseason credit.

3. (new-4) Frankie Frisch. His career resembles a long "decline" from his great years with the McGraw Giants of the early '20s. Even so, he remains HoM-worthy.

4. (1-3-5) George Sisler. How many position players on this ballot have a 124 ERA+ in 111 innings of pitching? Remember, he once beat Ruth in a 1-0 shutout. Plus, he was a fine hitter.

5. (new) Goose Goslin. Another fine hitter for both average and power. I can't state his case any better than Lawrence Ritter does.

6. (5-4-3) John Beckwith. About where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as a roughly comparable player for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

7. (off-6-9) Edd Roush. Both his context-adjusted offense (5 top 5's in OPS+) and his well-documented defensive skills are the best of the eligible CFs, by far.

8. (8-7-7) Clark Griffith. Adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record compares favorably to HoM inductee and contemporary Joe McGinnity.

9. (11-8-8) Joe Sewell. A clear notch above the MLB infield crew (Childs, Doyle, Jennings, Maranville, and Traynor). Surprisingly close in value to Frisch.

10. (off-off-off) Eppa Rixey. My study of the long-career pitchers convinced me that I under-estimated his innings pitched. His peak in the mid-1920s is real.

11. (5-9-10) Tommy Leach. His exemplary defensive value and timely hitting in a low-scoring era is worthy of HoM induction.

-------- PHoM line --------

12. (off-off-off) Jose Mendez. The best of the Cuban pitchers of his day, with a solid mark against MLB competition. Unearthed in my pitching re-appraisal.

13. (off-off-11) Hugh Duffy. I believe that the HoF did right by admitting outstanding defensive CFs Roush and Duffy and excluding average defensive CFs Ryan and Van Haltren.

14. (new) Wes Ferrell. His hitting for power is remarkable, but he lacks enough quality innings of pitching. Mickey Welch 40 years later, with a bat.

15. (10-11-12) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines falls into the Hall of Very Good; Beckley, then, is a borderline case.

16-20: Redding, Ned Wm.son, Grimes, Ryan, Van Haltren.

"Still worth a look" resumes in 1945.
   27. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: February 02, 2005 at 01:31 AM (#1119186)
Wouldn't it be better to call him Dazzy Ferrell? The world needs the word "dazzy" used more often if you ask me.

Dazzy Ferrell's Adj W/L (by RSI, but not for his own bat nor team defense) (age first, then W/L):

Total: 394-265: .598 Win Pct - 365 FWP.

19-30: 187-139
31-44: 207-126

That understates the Ferrell portion of his career notably, and the Vance years to a lesser extent.
   28. jimd Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:03 AM (#1119250)
Vance "Dazzy" Ferrell

      BP      CJ     OCF
19   0-0     0-0
20   1-1     1-1
21  20-9    20-11
22  23-11   23-15
23  20-12   20-14
24  21-11   24-12
25  12-10   11-12
26  14-6    13-16
27  26-10   26-14
28  23-10   22-13
29  17-17   14-19   15-16
30  12-11   13-12    7-12
31  16-12   16-14   15-13
32  17-11   19-14   18-13
33  26-7    27-7
34  20-9    20-11
35  11-8    10-9
36  20-9    18-13
37  24-5    23-9
38  17-10   17-10
39  18-13   20-12
40  13-12   13-11
41  11-10   13-10
42   6-3     6-2
42   3-3     2-2
43   3-2     3-2
   394-222 394-265 376-237

WF 189-108 187-139
DV 205-114 207-126

BP's numbers are their "Translated Pitching Statistics". They agree pretty closely with OCF on the number of decisions, but switch some losses to wins due to Ferrell's offense and Dazzy's bad defensive support, coming up with Chris J's number of wins. Interesting and fun.
   29. karlmagnus Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:32 AM (#1119287)
May I introduce you to Dizzy Leever, 314-165, .655 W/Lpct, ERA+ of about 128, peak year of 30-7, two World Series and SIX pennant winners? Transition from Dean to Leever at 27, which is a pity because you miss Dean's 211 ERA+ at 28 with the 1938 Cubs, which would give you a seventh pennant winner!
   30. karlmagnus Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:41 AM (#1119300)
Also Parisian Bob Wilhelm, 5080IP, 361-221, 230 saves, an ERA+ of about 135, but an OPS+ of only about 110. You can fit ALL Caruthers' pitching career before Wilhelm picks the ball up.
   31. jimd Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:56 AM (#1119313)
Sorry karlmagnus, I got carried away. ;-)
   32. OCF Posted: February 02, 2005 at 03:00 AM (#1119316)
For what it's worth, Chris, the rest of the numbers in the column, compressed together because I don't want to take up too much space:

0-1; 1-0; 17-10; 23-10; 21-10;
21-11; 13-9; 24-11; 22-12;
15-16; 7-12; 15-13; 18-13;
25-10; 18-11; 10-9; 20-11; 23-8;
15-10; 21-8; 13-11; 9-10; 6-5; 4-5; 4-3
   33. jimd Posted: February 02, 2005 at 04:12 AM (#1119412)
For those who care, I've updated the table for Vance "Dazzy" Ferrell to include OCF's numbers and the Actual W-L also. This puts the various W-L records for each season all on the same line for your perusal and comparison. This might be interesting in just comparing the systems, even if one doesn't care about this fictitious pitcher.
   34. jimd Posted: February 02, 2005 at 04:12 AM (#1119413)
Forgot to mention: it's on the Wes Ferrell thread.
   35. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 02, 2005 at 02:31 PM (#1119952)
Sorry for the terseness of my last couple ballots, it's a busy time at work, from whence I vote.

1. Lou Gehrig: The Irony Horse gallops into the HOM!
2. Frankie Frisch: Not quite NB, but a long career with a pretty good peak in the infield gives him the deuce on my ballot.
3. GVH: Still the best non-NB career value on the board, still a peak that doesn’t embarrass anyone.
4. Hugh Duffy: Best non-elect-me peak on the board, with a career that doesn’t embarrass anyone.
5. Goose Goslin (Honk!): These three are all wicked close. Van Haltren's got the career, Duffy's got the peak, Goslin has the middle ground. Duffy's peak is more impressive than Goslin's career, and I've long prefered GVH to Duffy, so there's how I arrived at my ranking of them.
6. Bill Foster: I have him in the Vance slot right now. No pressure Chris Cobb, but Foster’s fate on my ballot rests in the hands of the Great NgL Pitchers Yearly WS Estimate Project. ; )
7. Jose Mendez: Right where he’s always been.
8. Eppa Rixey: The GVH of pitchers, though with a little less career and peak.
9. John Beckwith: This guy’s got HOM written all over him and will get in once all the NB candidates stop flowing in.
10. George Burns: Nifty peak, but not quite enough career to advance further up my ballot.
11. Spots Poles: Thanks to last week’s reconsideration, he’s now closer to where he’s belonged on my ballot all along.
12. Edd Roush: He’s right where he belongs.
13. Tommy Leach: If only he’d played all his games at third, he’d probably rank a few places higher on my ballot. I suspect he’ll eventually get into the HOM, but it might take another 60 years.
14. Hugh Jennings: Still clinging to life at the bottom of the ballot.
15. Dobie Moore: Lovvve that peak, his second year among my tallies.

Now what to do about Wes Ferrell? My earlier comparison to Cooper was shown to be slightly off due to Wes’s offensive contributions, however, my take is that the HOM line for pitchers with around 3000 or so innings is drawn right in the vicinity of Ferrell and Griffith, at this time. I believe that line will change once we begin electing three or more candidates annually, however, for now, I’m comfortable with Griffith and Ferrell just off of my ballot.

Joe Sewell: I’m not an EOJS by any means, but I just don’t think he’s really all that much better than a few other middlemen, and I’m not persuaded by the FOJS that being the best SS in a down era for SS makes him ballotworthy.

I guess I’m officially an EO Jake Beckley, huh? I’ve never voted for him (IIRC), and I’m not about to start.

KiKi Cuyler is right around Bobby Veach but with a smaller peak and a little more career. Off the ballot.

Waite Hoyt doesn't spark my plugs, he's not as good as Old Stubblebeard, nor Welch, nor another dozen guys in the ether. He’s like the Jake Beckley of pitchers: long career, no peak.

Jimmy Dykes also had a Beckleyesque career with no discernable peak and surprising career value for his position. He was a long-time contributor, but never the core talent on his team. See Corcoran, Tommy.
   36. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 02, 2005 at 07:52 PM (#1120739)
A couple of comments,

I can see why giving a position player a teeny bit of extra credit for pitching makes sense. However, how much production is 111 IP of 124 ERA+? This is like half a season's owrth of pitching. I am hoping that your comment on Sisler has more to do with fun facts and less to do with how you are rating him.

Dr. Chaleeko,
How does Hugh Duffy have the highest non-elect me peak on the board? How long are you extending peak. Hughie Jennings still has the highest 7 year WS and WARP on teh board outside of the new guys. Duffy has a longer career and a long, productive prime. I can see why he would be above Jennings, but he certainly doesn't have the best peak on the best peak on the board.
   37. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 02, 2005 at 08:52 PM (#1120928)

Thanks for catching my imprecision; writing in haste always causes problems.

You're right of course! What I should have said was something to the effect of "Best peak of candidates on the board with significant career value" or something like that.
   38. OCF Posted: February 02, 2005 at 10:08 PM (#1121129)
I just want to point out that Steve Treder has written a nice article asking what would have happened had the "lively ball" days been allowed to start in 1911 with the spit/scuff ball prohibited starting in 1913. This reference, with a link there back to the first part of the article. Since he's discussing Sisler, Doyle, Burns, Cravath, Daubert, et al. it would seem that this article is something all of us should read.
   39. Chris Cobb Posted: February 03, 2005 at 01:49 AM (#1121402)
1944 Ballot

1. Lou Gehrig (n/e). As in 1943, an all-time great leads the ballot. I have Gehrig at #13 all time, with no competition adjustments for era.
2. Frankie Frisch (3). Gets an elect-me spot this year.
3. Goose Goslin (n/e). A clear HoMer, though not an all-time great. Narrowly edges his team’s owner for the 3-slot on my ballot.
4. Clark Griffith (4). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Pennants added shows him as superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure.
5. Eppa Rixey (5). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942 now may have a long wait ahead of him, though election in 1945 is possible. He matches up well with the second-tier pitchers of the 1930s and 1940s, though, so I’m confident he’ll get elected eventually.
6. John Beckwith (6) His status as an eventual HoMer is properly solidifying.
7. Bill Foster (7). A peak-pitcher candidate in the Vance/Coveleski mold. Difficulty of filtering team support out of available pitching statistics for Negro-Leaguers puts considerable guesswork into estimations of peak value, but we have the following indirect indications of his peak value: (1) consensus expert choice as best NeL lefthanded-pitcher of all time, (2) #2 among all Negro-League pitchers in black ink, based on Holway’s stats, with his career falling during the period of Negro-League history with the fullest stats and probably the highest level of competition, (3) his playoff record of 18-9 (including several legendary performances), which indicates he was a great big-game pitcher and thus confirms he had the dominance necessary for a great peak, (4) a documented stretch of 9 seasons as a work-horse starter without injuries. Given the available statistics, I’m not sure _exactly_ how great he was, but I’m sure he was great. I hope to do seasonal estimates for him this week as well.
8. Wes Ferrell (n/e). Much like Foster, as I see it. WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Foster has more value outside his 9-year prime than Ferrell does; Ferrell’s peak was slightly higher because his hitting value. Has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
9. Hughie Jennings (8). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
10. George Van Haltren (9). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
11. Edd Roush (10). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
12. Tommy Leach (11) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
13. Dick Redding (12). Comparison to Foster indicates that Foster was better, but that Redding is very much in the running for the 4/5 slot among Negro-League pitchers (depending on how one deals with Rogan’s two-way package).
14. Jose Mendez (13). Brilliant at his peak, but it was too short to quite match the primes of Redding and Foster. If I had to win one game and could have any eligible pitcher at his best to throw it, I think I’d take Mendez, though. Someone should make a movie about him.
15. George Sisler (14). Nice peak.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Joe Sewell – see #34 below
Jake Beckley – see #49 below
   40. Chris Cobb Posted: February 03, 2005 at 01:51 AM (#1121404)
1944 Off-Ballot

16. Larry Doyle (15). Pushed off the ballot this year. I expect he’ll slip back on in 1945, then disappear from the ballot until 1960 or so.
17. Urban Shocker (16)
18. Burleigh Grimes (17).
19. Rabbit Maranville (18).
20. Mickey Welch (19).
21. Spotswood Poles (20)
22. Hugh Duffy (21).
23. Carl Mays (22).
24. Rube Waddell (23)
25. Jimmy Ryan (24)
26. Roger Bresnahan (25).
27. Wally Schang (26).
28. Buzz Arlett (nr). Arlett enters my rankings this week. This placement is based on Brent’s conversions, without pitching credit, and peak seasons slightly tamped down. I need to think more about pitching credit, and study the conversions more, but I’ve got him in the rankings and I’ll be keeping an eye on him henceforth.
29. Wilbur Cooper (27).
30. Dobie Moore (28).
31. Ben Taylor (29)
32. Kiki Cuyler (n/e). Better than I thought he was. He’s not an obvious HoF mistake of the Chick Hafey sort, but he falls a bit short of what’s needed for election.
33. Dick Lundy</b> (30).
34. Joe Sewell (31). I’ve warmed to Sewell considerably since he first became eligible, but he, like Waddell, is an almost-but-not-quite HoMer. The 1920s infielder on the ballot who stands out for election is John Beckwith.
35. Waite Hoyt (n/e). Placed higher than I thought he would, but my system is fairly friendly to long-career pitchers. Was an above-average pitcher almost every year for 15 years, but he was never far above average. A lot like Dolf Luque. He lacks Luque’s one monster season, but played against tougher competition.
36. Harry Hooper (32).
37. Cupid Childs (33).
38. Bobby Veach (34)
39. Fielder Jones (35)
40. Dolf Luque (36)
41. Gavvy Cravath (37)
42. Herman Long (38)
43. Tommy Bond (39)
44. George J. Burns (40)
45. Charley Jones (41)
46. Bruce Petway (42)
47. Bill Monroe (43)
48. Babe Adams (44)
49. Jake Beckley (45). Still doesn’t have much peak.
50. Sam Rice (46).
51. Dave Bancroft (47)
52. Mike Tiernan (48)
53. Frank Chance (49)
54. Tony Mullane (50)
55. Ed Konetchy (51)
56. Lave Cross (52)
57. Addie Joss (53)
58. John McGraw (54)

New and Recent Arrivals Worthy of Note and awaiting evaluation

Four pitchers who are candidates for the top 60.

Lefty Andy Cooper. Still not ranked. Part of the great NeL pitcher project still awaiting completion.

William Bell In the same group needing attention as Cooper.

Sam Streeter. Ditto.

George Uhle. Haven’t studied him yet. Might break the top 60. Now that I have Ferrell, who is clearly better, fully analyzed, I’ll try to get to Uhle, the next best-hitting pitcher of their era.
   41. KJOK Posted: February 03, 2005 at 03:25 AM (#1121489)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. LOU GEHRIG, 1B. .797 OWP. 988 RCAP, 9,660 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. All-time best 1st baseman.

2. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 164 OPS+ over 7,419 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

3. FRANKIE FRISCH, 2B/3B. .560 OWP. 291RCAP. 10,100 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. In the top 7 2Bmen all-time.

4.BILL FOSTER, P. 205 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 125 MLE ERA+ in over 3,000 estimated innings makes him a Juan Marichal comp.

5. DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 122 OPS+ over 9,684 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense puts him ahead of Sewell. Comp is Joe Cronin.

6. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s.

7. GOOSE GOSLIN, LF. .635 OWP. 257 RCAP, 9,823 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Very similar to Fred Clarke and Al Simmons offensively.

8. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for maybe Santop.

9. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

10. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

11. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

12. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

13. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

14. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

15. RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.


KIKI CUYLER, RF/CF. .567 OWP. 164 RCAP. 8,098 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Possibly as good as Max Carey, but that won’t make this ballot.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.


CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber. Just off the ballot.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons blow away Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

DAVE BANCROFT, SS. .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Much better hitter than Maranville. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times. Hit like Ken Williams, only played longer and played 2B.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being much higher.

BURLEIGH GRIMES, P. 129 RSAA, 175 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 107 ERA+ in 4,180 innings. Less value than even Quinn.
   42. DavidFoss Posted: February 03, 2005 at 03:57 AM (#1121523)
Lets see, leagues at full strength and its the Yanks & Cards in the WS... the leagues get decimated by the war and its Yanks & Cards in the WS.

1944 Ballot

1. Lou Gehrig (ne) -- Tragic early end of his career and he's still the best 1B of all time.
2. Frankie Frisch (ne-3) -- A very nice peak (though below near-contemporaries Collins/Hornsby/Gehringer). A+ fielder. Long career. It'll be another 25 years before he irritates us with his Vets Committee antics.
3. Goose Goslin (ne) -- Ranks a bit above Wheat, but below Heilmann. Certainly worthy of induction, its just a matter of when.
4. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4-4-4-2-5) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, though. Unlike McGraw, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career rate stats a bit. Also unlike McGraw, he was quite durable inside his peak.
5. Clark Griffith (nr-15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14-13-8-4-7) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
6. John Beckwith (nr-12-8) Convinced he's ballot-worthy by recent analysis and re-analysis. He was certainly a good hitter. Career length and true defensive position are my main concerns with him.
7. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2-3-3-1-4) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
8. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6-6-5-3-6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
9. Bill Foster (ne-11) -- Slight bump this week, though still holding him back while I wait for more data. I did like Coveleski & Vance, though I acknowledge that several non-HOMers are just behind C&V.
10. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3-7-6-5-9) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
11. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5-5-7-6-10) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keepin him out of the HOM so far.
12. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8-9-10-7-12) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
13. Wes Ferrell (ne) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
14. George Sisler (ne-14-13-11-9-10-12-10-13) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter, trailing only Ruth, Cobb, Hornsby, Speaker & Jackson with a big gap down to the next group of Heilmann, Youngs and Roush (155 RC+). After the injury, he was quite mediocre (103 RC+). Peak is high enough to make the ballot. His peak is shorter and lower than JJackson's which is what keeps him relatively low.
15. Joe Sewell (ne-12-14-15-14-14) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.

Rixey -- Lingering near the edge of the ballot. Very good for a long time. I did like him better than Faber. Strong newcomers in the near future should keep him off, but he's on my radar.
Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10.
Van Haltren -- Two 10ths and an AA-7th in OPS+ is not what I look for in a HOM outfield candidate. Win Shares fielding rating of B. Looks like the Hall of the Very Good to me.
   43. Rick A. Posted: February 03, 2005 at 06:21 AM (#1121784)
Lou Gehrig
Frankie Frisch

1944 Ballot
1.Lou Gehrig – Great ballplayer. Better man. Elected PHOM in 1944.
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
3.Frankie Frisch – Long consistent career. Until this project, I never knew how truly awful his HOF selections were. I knew they were bad, but not ridicously bad. Elected PHOM in 1944.
4.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
5.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Futuer PHOMer.
6.Goose Goslin – I’ve got Wheat as slightly better than Goslin. Still a solid HOMer though.
7.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
8.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
9.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
10.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
11.Bill Foster – 3rd or 4th best Negro league pitcher.
12.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position..
13.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
14.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
15.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense

New Candidates
Kiki Cuyler - Down by Sam Rice and Harry Hooper. Not enough peak.
Waite Hoyt - Not a bad pitcher. Down by Pennock, Uhle and Whitney. Not close to my ballot.

Required Disclosures
Clark Griffith One of those pitchers who I always feel I'm underrating. Just doesn't rate too well in my system.
Joe Sewell the 1942 discussion convinced me that I was overrating him. Best SS in ML at his time, but he has a weak peak and not a very long career. Still a good player, though.
George Van Haltren Falling deeper into the CF glut.
Jake Beckley Out of my top 50. Never voted for him and I never will. No peak.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Roush, Grimes, Leach, Sisler, Lundy
21-25 Cooper, Schang, Mendez, Redding, McGraw
26-30 Williamson, Waddell, Mays, Taylor, Griffith
31-35 Poles, Tiernan, Bresnahan, Van Haltren, Doyle
36-40 Sewell, Traynor, Chance, Burns, McCormick
41-45 Bancroft, Griffin, F. Jones, Bond, Wilson
46-50 Long, Welch, R. Thomas, Cravath, Fournier
51-55 Konetchy, Beckley, Dunlap, Mullane, Tinker
56-60 Schalk, Maranville, Evers, Veach, Luque
   44. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 03, 2005 at 03:07 PM (#1122318)
21 ballots so far. Not many at this point.
   45. Brad G Posted: February 03, 2005 at 06:54 PM (#1122807)
Here's another!


1.Lou Gehrig- Replaces Cap Anson as the top 1B in my PHoM.

2.Frankie Frisch- I had him going in last year. In my opinion, he’s the 4th best 2B so far.

3.Bill Foster- The biggest jump of the year (from #18)… I have seen the light.

4.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

5.Goose Goslin- He could easily be #4.

6.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938. Dips slightly due to new entries- particularly Gehrig.

7.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS3 = 100, WS5 = 145, over 30 WS/season, Black Ink = 36, Gray Ink = 158.

8.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

9.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

10.Burleigh Grimes- Super Ink scores: Black = 38, Gray = 213, will likely never reach the Hall.

11.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

12.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career.

13.Sam Rice- Best career of eligible RFs. Career Win Shares = 327, Career Runs Created = 1467.

14.Eppa Rixey- Black Ink = 10, Gray Ink = 175.

15.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

Off the list: Sewell and Beckwith, both of whom are just off, and are certainly Top 20 players at this point. I’m still working my way through the Beckwith analysis.

   46. mbd1mbd1 Posted: February 03, 2005 at 07:27 PM (#1122882)
1944 ballot: Gehrig is a NB; Goslin is up there, and Cuyler makes my ballot as well. Brief comments this week - I've had to move out of my office on account of a leaky radiator and just now got plugged back in.

1. Lou Gehrig (NA) - Welcome.
2. Frankie Frisch (2) - I think he's in as well.
3. Goose Goslin (NA) - I like Goose a lot; Heilmann and Wheat are comps.
4. George Van Haltren (4) - Almost always the bridesmaid.....
5. Eppa Rixey (NA) - Trying to be more fair to the pitchers, Rixey jumps out of purgatory.
6. Jimmy Ryan (5) -
7. Edd Roush (6) -
8. Rube Waddell (NA) - Rube's back on my ballot as well.
9. Roger Bresnahan (14) - Back to being the best half catcher on the ballot. Would be a lot higher if he were a whole catcher.
10. Kiki Cuyler (NA) - Roush, Duffy, and Ryan are comps. That gets him on my ballot.
11. Joe Sewell (11) - Last year's arrival of Frisch really hurt Sewell.
12. Bill Foster (10) -
13. Hugh Duffy (8) -
14. Sam Rice (9) - Pitcher adjustments and newbies push these two down a few spots.
15. Wes Ferrell (NA) - His big W3 number puts him a shade ahead of the Willis/Grimes/Mays group.

next five: Beckwith, Hooper, Willis, Grimes, Leach. I have Griffith behind the Willis, Grimes, Mendez, Mays crowd.
   47. Michael Bass Posted: February 03, 2005 at 08:23 PM (#1122986)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

A little ballot shakeup this week, nothing severe. The bottom of the ballot is in near constant flux, but we may be settling on an order.

PHOM are two pretty fair player: Mickey Cochrane and Lou Gehrig.

Cuyler is in the 30-ish range. Not completely off the radar, but not exactly on it either. Hoyt is a bit below that. Good career candidate.

1. Lou Gehrig (1944) (new) - Not a difficult choice to say the least. Great career numbers, and his career is nearly all peak. Duh.

2. Frankie Frisch (1943) (2) - Good hitter, amazing defender, strong career and peak. What's not to like?

3. Wes Ferrell (new) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot.

As I said in the discussion thread, much of the talk about Ferrell (his usage, whether he did or did not face advanced competition) has been a distraction from his amazing qualifications. Those being that his career WARP3 is the highest pitching total on the ballot. And he's not even a career candidate.

4. Willie Foster (4) - Willie seems to be what we've settled on. Anyway, I think the Vance/Coveleski arguments are about right. The top two NL pitchers, Paige and Williams, are in the absolute inner circle guys, like Alexander and Johnson. Foster is the top of the next tier, the guys who aren't inner circle, but get in easily. Like...well...Vance and Coveleski. Feeling here is his peak/prime was a little longer than theirs, too. Will adjust up or down based on any exact WS estimates (hopefully coming soon as he is a serious induction candidate for next season).

5. Hughie Jennings (1908) (6) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

6. José Méndez (1939) (7) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting as a pitcher moves him to one spot above him, but he doesn't get credit in my system for his offensive rebirth (I don't think he'd have had it in the big leagues). In my opinion, the single most underrated player by the electorate. Look at the players in the Cuban Leagues when he was dominating. HOMers and HOM candidates all over the place.

7. Joe Sewell (5) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I overcompensated in the most recent reconsideration. I still want him in, but Jennings and Méndez's peaks put them higher.

8. Goose Goslin (new) - Great career numbers, but his peak feels light to me. I think he's more Zack Wheat than Harry Heilman (who was just short of no-brainer status).

9. Rube Waddell (8) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

10. John Beckwith (9) - I'm sold enough to move him up above Moore. Longer prime, peak not as great, but very good. Not going higher than this relative position on the ballot though, his defense seems to have been horrible, and I suspect he'd have ended up in a less stressful (and less WS-bountiful) position in the majors.

11. Clark Griffith (10) - Another big winners in WARP3 changes, as well as the look back at the first 3 decades of the majors. We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at.

12. Dick Redding (11) - Of similar value to Méndez, but below him because of Mendez's bat, and Redding is a touch lighter on the peak. Moved back up, as a winner of my NL reconsideration, along with Ben Taylor, who will make my ballot someday long in the future. Loser was Lundy, who moved down even farther.

13. Dobie Moore (12) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

14. Wally Schang (--) - I take another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog.

15. Lave Cross (13) - A career/prime guy who does well. Having played catcher helps him a lot, as well. For those looking for 3B/C, this is an overlooked guy.

PHOMers not on my ballot (taken from past ballots and past systems, that I to varying degrees regret now):

Jimmy Ryan (1930)
Hugh Duffy (1931)
Mike Griffin (1932)
Bobby Veach (1939)

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Van Haltren - Way down on my ballot. I'd much prefer Jimmy Ryan, who also is not on my ballot. Also would prefer Poles, Duffy, Griffin. And of course Bobby Veach, who I think was the best of all these guys who have been around forever. And that's just the outfielders.

Sisler - Will likely make my ballot once we start hitting the backlog again pretty heavily. Peak, except for the one monster year, wasn't as great as people seem to think.
   48. Rob_Wood Posted: February 04, 2005 at 04:48 AM (#1123876)
My 1944 ballot:

1. Lou Gehrig -- all-time great player and story
2. Frankie Frisch -- very very good second baseman
3. Goose Goslin -- very very good left fielder
4. Bill Foster -- one of top Negro League hurlers
5. Kiki Cuyler -- where's the luv for Kiki?
6. Eppa Rixey -- very good long career
7. Jake Beckley -- ditto
8. Joe Sewell -- very good left side infielder
9. Edd Roush -- very good center fielder
10. George Sisler -- was so overrated he's now underrated
11. John Beckwith -- hard to know where he belongs
12. George Van Haltren -- solid player
13. Cupid Childs -- gotta luv those nicknames
14. Larry Doyle -- I am a big fan of Laughin Larry
15. Clark Griffith -- wish he could be higher
   49. Sean Gilman Posted: February 04, 2005 at 09:02 AM (#1124191)

1. Lou Gehrig (-)--He’s good.

2. Frankie Frisch (3)--Slight edges on Goslin all-around.

3. Goose Goslin (-)--Not the last HOM Goose, but the first. Is he the best?

4. Pete Browning (4)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

5. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Hughie Jennings (6)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

7. Cupid Childs (7)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

8. Tommy Leach (8)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. . .Leapfrogs over the pitchers this week for reasons of peak and pennants added.

9. Bill Foster (9)--This is where Coveleski would be, and the consensus comp for Foster seems to be Coveleski. Looks about right to me, though I expected him to look better.

10. Clark Griffith (10)--About as close to Coveleski as can be.

11. Dick Redding (11)--Peak not quite long enough to put him ahead of the other second-tier HOM-probable pitchers. A good comp for Griffith, I think.

12. Larry Doyle (12)--Another underrated infielder. . .

13 Joe Sewell (13)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. Well, not so much anymore. . .

14. George Sisler (14)-- Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him.

15. John Beckwith (15)--Bumping him up over Williamson and Bancroft.

16. Ed Williamson (16)
17. Dave Bancroft (17)
18. Roger Bresnahan (18)
19. Jose Mendez (19)
20. Carl Mays (20)
21. Wes Ferrell (-)--Great peak. I’m ranking him about midway between where WARP and Win Shares would have him.
22. Eppa Rixey (21)
23. Hugh Duffy (22)
24. George Van Haltren (23)
25. Edd Roush (24)
   50. DanG Posted: February 04, 2005 at 02:53 PM (#1124292)
My #1 and #2 were elected. New exhibit for Ferrell. More greats in 1944 with Gehrig & Goslin, plus Ferrell and Cuyler. 1945 is a backlog year. The deluge resumes in 1946 with NeLers Stearnes and Suttles, plus Simmons and Averill from white ball.

1)Lou Gehrig – Only 14 years as a regular…SB success was poor, 50.2%…He had the nickname “Biscuit Pants”. Wha’?!? OK, you find something bad to say about him.

2)Frankie Frisch (2,ne,ne) – Likely no longer among the top 100 players all-time. Maybe not one of the top ten secondbasemen. Still a good ways above the backlog.

3)Goose Goslin – One of the top 10 MLB players of the 20th century enshrined by the veterans committee. Top 5: Vaughan, Mize, Baker, Crawford, Brown. Next 5: Walsh, Plank, Goslin, Reese, Herman.

4)George Van Haltren (4,1,3) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 36th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most runs scored 1891-1900:
1—1321 B. Hamilton
2—1215 G. Van Haltren
3—1191 J. Burkett
4—1184 E. Delahanty

5—1130 H. Duffy
6—1102 H. Long
7—1081 C. Childs
8—1070 B. Dahlen

5)Clark Griffith (5,2,4) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young

3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie
5—92.4% R. Donahue
6—90.4% J. McGinnity
7—90.2% C. Fraser
8—89.5% J. Powell
9—89.5% B. Dinneen

6)Bill Foster (6,ne,ne) – Holding steady. I’ve seen nothing to indicate he is not worthy of his hall of fame status. Not sure he was any better than Vance or Faber, so he’s here.

7)Tommy Leach (7,4,5) – With 3B lagging in HoMers, it’s good to see him getting more attention. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have also handled CF. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). Thirdbasemen with highest OPS+, 1871-1938, minimum 5500 PA (5000 before 1900):
1—138 D. Lyons
2—135 F. Baker
3—126 D. White

4—121 H. Zimmerman
5—119 E. Sutton
6—118 H. Groh
7—113 J. Collins

7—113 E. Williamson
9—110 F. Lindstrom
10—109 L. Gardner
10—109 T. Leach

8) Jimmy Ryan (8,5,7)— Most extra-base hits 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
5—484 M. Tiernan
6—474 R. Connor
7—467 H. Duffy
8—452 E. McKean

9)Edd Roush (9,6,8) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Most hits 1917-27:
1—2119 R. Hornsby
2—2040 G. Sisler
3—1992 H. Heilmann
4—1973 S. Rice
5—1939 T. Cobb
6—1925 T. Speaker

7—1777 E. Roush
8—1746 Z. Wheat
9—1742 E. Collins
10—1678 M. Carey

10)George Sisler (10,7,9) – Not to harp on this, but the problem with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 220 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2400+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx
6—2495 M. Vernon
7—2467 R. Connor
8—2406 S. McInnis
   51. DanG Posted: February 04, 2005 at 02:55 PM (#1124297)
11)Eppa Rixey (11,8,13) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most wins, LHP, 1871-1974:
1—363 W. Spahn
2—326 E. Plank
3—300 L. Grove
4—266 E. Rixey
5—253 C. Hubbell
6—240 H. Pennock
7—236 W. Ford
8—218 E. Whitehill

12)Wes Ferrell – Eight-year prime of 130 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP is impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 60% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean
4—69.6% T. Lyons
5—69.3% R. Lucas
6—65.1% R. Ruffing
7—65.0% C. Hubbell
8—64.0% L. Warneke

13)Roger Bresnahan (12,10,11) – Versatility is a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
6—101 D. McGuire
7—100 J. Kling
8—99 D. Farrell

14)Hughie Jennings (14,11,12) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis

5—6.37 H. Long
6—6.18 M. Cross
7—6.10 T. Corcoran
8—6.05 B. Ely

15)Hugh Duffy (15,12,14) – He kinda fell off my radar for awhile, until I realized he shouldn’t be very far behind Ryan. Peak puts him over Hooper, but he didn’t have a long career (12.5 yrs) for a corner OF. A WHOLE lot was context. Hit 82 of his 106 career HRs at home. Players with 1900 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1889-99:
1—2585 H. Duffy
2—2348 E. Delahanty
3—2141 G. Van Haltren
4—2135 B. Hamilton
5—2117 J. Beckley
6—2099 H. Long
7—2038 E. McKean
8—1939 G. Davis
9—1901 J. Ryan

Wally Schang falls off as I submit to the consensus.

Joe Sewell – A few spots off the ballot. Perhaps the best shortstop during a down time at the position. I easily prefer Jennings. Maybe Lundy, too. The next generation of shortstops blows him away (Cronin, Wells, Vaughan, Appling). Only 13 years as a regular, 8 at SS (1 more year than Jennings). OPS+ of 120 in just one season.

John Beckwith – I guess I have to address him now, after he benefited greatly from the Rube Foster Syndrome, i.e., “sudden support in a weak year for the guy who might have been great rather than the guys I’m “sure” were not.” I am not able to reconcile the general disregard of his quality with the translations of his stats being generated here. A small error makes a huge difference. On a ballot as tight as 1942, there is not much difference between an elect-me spot and off-ballot, between 23 points and zero points. Until we have a reliable Negro leagues encyclopedia, we’re likely to be making qualitative mistakes with some of them. Lacking a procedure for periodic recall elections, I will continue to employ a healthy skepticism.

Jake Beckley is off as I question the logic of equal positional representation. I see nothing wrong with saying that few of the best players in his day were first basemen, that the talent tended to congregate around shortstop. Being the best of a weak group does not accrue merit to a player, in my analysis. We’re looking for the best ballplayers, regardless of position.
   52. Mike Webber Posted: February 04, 2005 at 08:12 PM (#1124869)
I am mostly using Win Shares with a bonus for peak seasons. Discounting pre-1893 pitching accomplishments, and giving catchers and middle infielders a boost.

1)LOU GEHRIG – Did the New York fans yell “LOOOOOUUUU! LOOOOOUUU!!” when he came to the plate?
2)FRANK FRISCH – I was going to put him 16th but fortunately I managed to catch myself before banging my head on the ice, sliding out into traffic and being hit by a truck. 16th, sheesh. You know when SABR did it’s top 100 players of all time 2 people didn’t include Babe Ruth on their ballot, god only knows why.
3)GOOSE GOSLIN – Agree with the general sentiment that he is a HOMer, but not inner circle.
4)TOMMY LEACH – Led league in homers once and RBI twice.
5)EDD ROUSH – The best of the outfield candidates due to his high peak.
6)EPPA RIXEY – in “1942” Joe D. mentioned the fact that he missed a season due to WWI, I gave him a little credit for that and it was enough to make him the top pitcher on my ballot.
7)BILL FOSTER – Was talking with Mathew Namee at lunch this week about how many black players before 1947 should be in the Hall of Fame, and he threw out a number of 40, which seems plausible. Mathew also admitted he had no idea who those 40 would be, but I imagine one of them is Foster.
8)DICK REDDING – Capped by Foster, because I respect the expert opinions.
10)LARRY DOYLE – Doyle is a better offensive player than any of the shortstops, and none of them dominate him in career length, so I think he has to slot in here.
   53. Mike Webber Posted: February 04, 2005 at 08:12 PM (#1124870)
12)VIC WILLIS – Re-read BJNHA rankings of both, and discussed them with Joe D. and I see the arguments to put Griffith ahead of Willis – plus I learned what harmonic mean means.
13)GEORGE J. BURNS – Might not be in the HOM, but I did put him in my Diamond Legends team.
14)JIMMY RYAN – Trumps Hooper on peak.
15)DOBIE MOORE – I think I have had a different SS in the last spot every year.

Next 10 – Sewell, Maranville, Hooper, Rice, Lundy, Sisler, Beckwith, Cuyler, Duffy, Bancroft.
   54. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 04, 2005 at 09:48 PM (#1125050)
Was talking with Mathew Namee at lunch this week about how many black players before 1947 should be in the Hall of Fame, and he threw out a number of 40, which seems plausible.

Before karlmagnus gives his two cents, I'll give mine: huh?!! Are we talking about 8 Negro Leaguers for each decade of the 20th Century before 1947? I can't buy that.
   55. favre Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1125082)
1.Lou Gehrig
2.John Beckwith

I am jumping on the Beckwith bandwagon. Chris Cobb and Gary A. have done an excellent job at presenting his case. At worst, he was a great hitting 3B/SS with around 280 career WS; my guess his total WS are somewhere between 325-250. As several others have mentioned, he is very comparable to Dick Allen.

3.Jake Beckley
4.Clark Griffith

Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

5.Tommy Leach
6.Eppa Rixey

There seemed to be a little backlash against Leach last election. Leach played great defense at two key positions and could hit in the low-offense oughts. Win Shares may overrate centerfielders, but Leach was still a great player.

Rixey 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, Jack Powell, and Roger Clemens (for the moment) are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

7.Frankie Frisch
8.Goose Goslin
9.Bill Foster

I think Frisch and Goslin are *slightly* overrated by the electorate, probably because they are slightly overrated by the uberstats. Don’t get me wrong;I think they’re both good choices for the Hall, and both are scheduled to make my PHoM in the next two years. But I have no problem placing six players ahead of them. Gehrig is an obvious first. I think Beckwith probably has as many career WS as Goslin/Frisch and seems to have been one of the top hitters of his era. Beckley also has about the same number of career aWS, but did it at a position for which we don’t have a representative for thirty years, and I find those thirteen 123 OPS+ seasons very compelling. Leach probably had as much defensive value as Frisch, but was a better hitter. Rixey would have pitched close to 5000 innings if it wasn’t for WWI. Clark Griffith is the guy about whom I have the most reservations, but he was a pitcher with a great prime in a high-offense age, and that impresses me more than Goslin and Frisch. I’m tempted to put Foster above them as well, for the same reason as Griffith, but there are still too many unknown factors with him.

10.George Sisler
11.Edd Roush
12.Rube Waddell

Is Sisler the player whose career was most affected by a single injury? At age 29, he would have seemed to be a lock for the HoM. He had a great run from 1917-1922, hitting .407 and .420 in a couple of seasons. He played at a position which had not seen a dominant star since the 1890s. Koufax might be a contender for this “title”, if you consider his arm trouble a single injury, but I can’t think of any others offhand.

I’m surprised that I have this Roush this high; I thought he would end up near the CF glut off the ballot. He was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

13.Dick Redding
14.Ned Williamson
15.Hugh Jennings

Looking at Holway—with all the caveats implied therewith—it seems that Redding and Joe Williams were the best pitchers in black baseball, 1917-1922. Redding wasn’t as good as Williams, but he was one of at least the top seven in NeL history. As others have mentioned, he’s comparable to Bill Foster, which gets him on the ballot.

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.

21. Van Haltren was merely a good hitter in a high offense era, and I think his WS totals are distorted by his pitching stint.

29. Joe Sewell Does not compare well to other shortsops in the HoM. I’m not convinced he was better than John Beckwith or Dick Lundy.

33. Wes Ferrell. I have been reading the arguments for Ferrell, and maybe I’m just being stubborn, but I really can’t see the difference between him and Carl Mays—-well, not enough difference to put him on the ballot, anyway.
   56. OCF Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1125161)
Is Sisler the player whose career was most affected by a single injury?

I don't think so, because at least he played afterwards. What about Ray Chapman? Not the glitz of Sisler's peak, to be sure, but through age 29 he was a good defensive shortstop with a career 111 OPS+. Not particularly good at staying in the lineup but nice year-to-year stability other than that.
   57. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1125193)
I agree with John. Here, in no particular order, are the guys we have elected already:

Frank Grant
Home Run Johnson
Smokey Joe Williams
Rube Foster
Bullet Joe Rogan
Pete Hill
Pop Lloyd
Oscar Charleston
Cristobal Torriente
Louis Santop

Here, of the top of my head, are who we would have to elect to reach 40 NeLers.

30 other players in two differnt lists. First list is player who are not eligible yet. The second is players who are eligible.

Turkey Stearnes
Buck Leonard
Josh Gibson
Martin Dihigo
Satchel Paige
Willis Wells
Mule Suttles
Roy Campanella?
Monte Irvin?
Cool Papa Bell
Willie Wells
Ray Dandridge
Leon Day
Boojum Wilson
Buck O'Neil
Biz Mackey
Williard Brown

Judy Johnson
John Beckwith
Dobie Moore
Bill Foster
Dick Redding
Jose Mendez
Spottswood Poles
Bruce Petway
Andy Cooper
Dick Lundy
Bill Monroe
Ben Taylor

If you don't count Campanells and Irvin then you would probably put up DeMoss and Marcelle (Easter? Strong? . Either way 40 is a Huge stretch. 30 at max.

Oops, forgot Hilton Smith. Either way, my point still stands.
   58. Adam Schafer Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:37 PM (#1125203)
If I don't get this in today, I wouldn't make it this week.

1. Lou Gehrig (n/a) - Who else?

2. Frankie Frisch (3) - Most any other year he could've had the #1 spot

3. Bill Foster (4) - 3rd best Negro League pitcher not only doesn't get
a #1 spot on my ballot, he gets in at #4?? That really says something
about the quality players ahead of him.

4. Goose Goslin (n/a) - Fits perfectly into the type of player that I

5. Mickey Welch (5) - Big drop for Mickey this week

6. Wes Ferrell (n/a) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd
normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long
enough for me to rank him this high.

7. Burleigh Grimes (7) - Tough debate on whether to have him above Rice
or not

8. Sam Rice (8) - This is the type of consistency that I love

9. Pie Traynor (9) - One of the best 3b ever

10. Eppa Rixey (6) - A bit of a drop for Rixey. I've decided that
Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

11. George Sisler (10) - This is going to be an unpopular vote I know,
but his peak was great, and there's enough career for me put him this
high. What George has really done, is convinced me to move Beckley up on
my ballot again.

12. Clark Griffith (11) - Same old story for Clark

13. Jake Beckley (12) - Not far off from Sisler.

14. Rube Waddell (13) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive
years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

15. Wally Schang (14) - Lots of career value for a catcher. I really
wish I could justify having him higher right now. A definate HOM'er in
my opinion. Just too many other good players on the ballot right now.

16. Joe Sewell (15) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the
guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

17. John Beckwith (16) - Ok, I'll jump on the Beckwith bandwagon too.
After his high ranking last "year" I realized that I had better
reevaluate him b/c I was obviously missing something very important.

18. Dick Lundy (17) - I have him slotted just slightly worse than

19. George Van Haltren (18) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

-------------My Personal HOM Line----------------

20. Jose Mendez (19) - I haven't been able to convince myself that he
deserves a spot higher than this.

21. Roger Bresnahan (20) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I
would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less
during his peak years.

22. KiKi Cuyler (n/a) - Just not cutting it for my PHOM

23. Herb Pennock (21) - If he'd only put up some good seasons before he
was 25 he would've had a shot at my PHOM. He'll never make my PHOM, and
I doubt he'll ever come close to making the HOM, but he's good enough
to scratch in just ahead of Mays.

24. Jim Bottomley (22) - not Bill Terry material, but good peak and
enough career for my personal liking. I doubt he makes the HOM, but he's
one that I wouldn't be upset if he was somehow able to get enough
support to make it someday.

25. Carl Mays (23) - People may laugh that he made my ballot, but Carl
could pitch. With Sisler and Welch so high, I already have two
unpopular votes, so what's one more for them to laugh at?

26. Hughie Jennings (24) - Nothing new to add

27. Edd Roush (25) - Not quite as good as Max Carey

28. Vic Willis (26) - I'm beginning to think that I've highly
underrated him. He's making a slow climb up my ballot right now.

29. Judy Johnson (27) - This project has really opened my eyes to a lot
of players, I was a little disappointed when it showed me that Judy
wasn't as great as I had always imagined.

30. Dobie Moore (28) - I believe Dobie was great, there just isn't room
for him higher than this yet. I'm sure he'll move onto the actual
ballot soon enough.

31. Rabbit Maranville (29) - Only this high b/c he was a SS. No peak,
and not even a good enough career value for me, and I'm a big career

32. Eddie Cicotte (30) - Underrated in my opinion. May not be HOM
material, but underrated nonetheless.

33. Bobby Veach (31) - Not enough career for him to merit a higher
ranking on my ballot, but enough peak to grab a lower spot.

34. Jimmy Ryan (32) - A watered down Van Haltren

35. Urban Shocker (33) - 8 good pitching seasons. Nothing spectacular,
but a respectable career.

36. Hugh Duffy (34) - Back onto my ballot. No new thoughts on him

37. Harry Hooper (35) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I
originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial
ballot, but he just doesn't meet the qualifications in my mind that
everyone above him does.

38. Dick Redding (36)
39. Ray Schalk (37)
40. Cupid Childs (38)
41. Tommy Leach (39)
42. Pete Browning (40)
43. Larry Doyle (41)
44. Fielder Jones (42)
45. Firpo Marberry (43)
46. Ben Taylor (44)
47. Gavvy Cravath (45)
48. Addie Joss (46)
49. Tommy Bond (47)
50. Joe Judge (48)
51. Waite Hoyt (n/a)
52. Earl Combs (49)
53. Dolph Luque (50)
54. Duke Farrell (51)
55. Andy Coooper (52)
56. Lave Cross (53)
57. George Uhle (54)
58. Tom York (55)
59. Mike Griffin
60. Frank Chance
   59. Mike Webber Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:50 PM (#1125238)
40 was a round number in a conversation where the general discussion was there are about 40 Black players that are HOF level that have played in the last 60 seasons since integration, so it seems likely in the 80 years before that there were probably about the same number.
   60. Max Parkinson Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:55 PM (#1125251)
10. Dick Redding

I think he slots in best here. But really, I’ve got a system that has a possible point range from 0 to 5950. The Babe is #1 with just over 4600, and 5 other players are above 3000. 14 more are better than 2000. I’ve got 46 players (retired and active) between Jennings (1618) and Eddie Cicotte (1420), a gap of less than 200 points. If I think Redding’s in this region, the margin of error puts him anywhere from 4 to 35 on this ballot.

11. Harry Hooper
12. George Burns

The next two outfielders from the teens (and 20s). I’ve got a question for the electorate: Why is Jake Beckley getting so much more attention than Hooper? 25 people voted for Beckley last year, while passing on Hooper.

I would think that most (Except Karl, of course) of Beckley’s supporters are Win Shares people, so let’s look at Win Shares. Granted, I use modified WS, but my 3 mods should help Beckley as compared to straight WS. First, pre-1893 I apportion 50% of Pitching WS to position players, more in fielding than batting. This helps Beckley but not Hooper. Next, I use a 2/3 power to account for shorter seasons (This is like old WARP, new WARP uses ½). Last, I use ½ of the league adjustment of BP between leagues of the same year. Beckley played in the best available league for his entire career save the last 6 years. Hooper played in the best league save for his last 2. Slight edge to Hooper. ** Note that WS undervalues both 1B (pre-1920) and RF defense. Beckley was good at the former, Hooper was superlative at the latter. Who does Win Shares’ mistakes hurt more?

Anyhow, here’s what I get from my modified WS


Best 3___________73____85
Best 5__________116___130
Best 7__________156___171
Best 10_________215___231
5 Cons._________108___127
6 Cons._________127___147
7 Cons._________148___167
8 Cons._________167___188
9 Cons._________178___204
10 Cons.________195___226

Hooper’s best year is better than Beckley’s best. So’s his 2nd best. And 3rd, 4th, 5th right to 12th. Beckley then takes over, and his 13th best through 20th best is better than Hooper’s. But 15 Win Shares over a career is enough to have Beckley 1 and Hooper never heard of ya? When any look at peak or prime says that Hooper was better? Sorry to rant, but I just don’t get it.

13. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

14. Bobby Veach

Peak was higher than Hooper, but prime not as long. Was the 3rd best OF in the AL a few times; not too shabby when the other 2 are Cobb and Speaker.

15. George Sisler


16-20. Monroe, Grimes, Cuyler, Sewell, Moore
21-25. Uhle, Maranville, Rixey, Shocker, F. Jones
26-30. Lundy, Roush, Bancroft, Mays, C. Jones
31-35. Mendez, Luque, Cicotte, Pennock, Taylor
36-40. Duffy, Quinn, Leach, Seymour, Hoyt
41-45. Fletcher, Tinker, Shawkey, Rommel, Buffinton
46-50. Youngs, Willis, Traynor, Bottomley, Bush


Beckley – see Hooper’s comment. 57 on my ballot.

GVH – I just don’t see what the fuss is about. When the next candidate lull comes, someone please sell this guy to me, ‘cause he’s not even close right now. 70 on my ballot.

Rixey – Long career vs. High Peak/Prime. I tend to vote Option B (as opposed to J).
   61. Max Parkinson Posted: February 04, 2005 at 10:56 PM (#1125253)
Stupid system...

1944 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Gehrig and Cochrane)

1. Lou Gehrig

He was pretty good. I have a friend who’s a retired scout, and grew up in Montreal – ended up playing for the Dodgers and Mets. He told me that between him and his father, the only two players that they’d ever heard of that hit a ball out of the Royals’ stadium to dead centre were Ruth and Gehrig, and they did it in the same game – a barnstorming exhibition in ’31 or ’32, the details were a little unclear. When Pete Reiser becomes eligible, I’ll have more good stories…

2. Frankie Frisch

Pretty good peak, and centre of a few pennant winners. Doing my best to not hold his HOF crimes against him.

3. Hughie Jennings

Still crazy after all these years… Hughie remains the only player on the ballot with the “Best Player in the Game” belt. I’m not sure that a good chunk of you will ever be convinced of my argument, but I’d rather a superduperstar for 5 years, with a blah 6 or 7 than a pretty good player for 15. For those 5 great years, Hughie was more valuable offensively than A-rod in his prime, and was otherworldly in the field. 5 possible MVP years are much more than anyone else here can claim…

It seems as though Hughie isn’t going to make it for a while, now. Pity.

4. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

5. Goose Goslin

Here’s a pretty good test case for how good you can be (Merit-wise) without ever being the best at your position in the game. Goslin could never be considered the best corner outfielder in the MLs during any multi-year stretch, thank you very much George Herman. Nevertheless, he was an elite-level player, and I think that he belongs on a ballot.

6. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Konetchy, Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed and Terry.

I understand that this is a conservative estimate of Beckwith’s defensive capability, but I can point to a number of current big-leaguers who were shortstops at AA or AAA or even for a year or two in the majors who would never be considered ML SSs or even 3rd basemen – Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, not to mention Delgado and Phelps (catchers, which is a similar proposition of good bat at key defensive positions who got shifted leftward on the spectrum).

7. Bill Foster

I think I’ve got the eligible NLs in the right order (Beckwith, Foster, Redding, Monroe, Moore, Lundy, Mendez, Taylor), although I could be convinced that Taylor should jump some. The tricky part is slotting them in with the ML players. I’m pretty comfortable with Taylor here.

8. Ed Konetchy

Ahead of Sisler? Well, it’s close but yes. Whereas Rixey had the better extended prime than Faber, it wasn’t better by enough to overcome Faber’s peak lead. Here, Konetchy’s prime is better by enough to overcome Sisler’s peak. Take defense for example. Sisler was acknowledged as a great glove man, but it was really only true while he was young. Konetchy was as good as that for most of his career. Konetchy never had Sisler’s great few seasons, but he wasn’t nearly as bad at his worst.

9. Clark Griffith

As discussed in the Mickey Welch thread, Griffith is the best pitcher not yet inducted from a pretty damn good era of baseball, the one-league late ‘90s, where the other 3 are inner-circle types in Young, Nichols and Rusie. Contrast Welch, who would be at best the 7th best pitcher from his decade.
   62. jimd Posted: February 04, 2005 at 11:57 PM (#1125381)
Is Sisler the player whose career was most affected by a single injury?

Hardly. How about Jimmy Ryan's train wreck? How about Charlie Ferguson's fatal bout of typhoid? How about Jimmy Wood's gangrenous leg? (to name one per 19th century decade)
   63. karlmagnus Posted: February 05, 2005 at 12:39 AM (#1125442)
Beckley/Hooper. Easy. Beckley had a lot more hits, played a position that was at least as difficult, had a much higher OPS+ and is undervalued by WS because of shorter seaosns and because WS doesn't recognize that the infield/outfield balance changed about 1920. Hooper, conversely is overvalued by WS for the same reason.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:28 AM (#1125596)
Is Sisler the player whose career was most affected by a single injury?

How about Monty Stratton? Herb Score? Tony Conigliaro?
   65. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 05, 2005 at 12:57 PM (#1126490)

Can I ask to whom you are referring in your last post? I understand that you like Jake Beckley, but it is getting a little tiresome and I dont' believe it will be as effective as Bob Caruthers. I am about as likely to put Beckley on my ballot as George Bush is to propose a National health care plan for all.

And I dont' buy your arguments about th hits (I couldn't care less) or the shorter seasons (If you schedule adjust it doesnt' effect his peak in my system at all.). And an infield/outfield shift prior to 1920? What? Are you saying that 1B was more important defensively?

I just cant' vote for someone who was never even close to being the best player at in baseball at any point in his career. Please come up with some new arguments.
   66. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: February 05, 2005 at 01:37 PM (#1126504)
1 Lou Gehrig: The Iron Horse.
2 Goose Goslin: Honk honk!
3 Frankie Frisch: The Alan Trammell of 1920.
4 Willie Foster: Best remaining Negro League pitcher? Yes.
5 John Beckwith: Hot hitter, with a head to match.
6 Jose Mendez: Cuba's best pitcher ever?
7 Hugh Duffy: Wattaheckuvapeak!
8 Jake Beckley: Real good, long time.
9 Joe Sewell: Solid on defense, decent hitter.
10 Pete Browning: Gladiator or crazy drunk? You decide.
11 George van Haltren: Best remaining 19th centurion.
12 George Sisler: Don't hate him because he hit .420.
13 Bill Foster: Elite (as in ee-LITE) pitcher.
14 Burleigh Grimes: An appropriate name for the last (legal) spitballer.
15 Eiji Samawura: I am legend.
   67. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:27 PM (#1126524)
15 Eiji Samawura: I am legend.

Yahoo search results:

We didn't find any Web pages matching the following criteria:
Containing this query term: Eiji Samawura
- Check your spelling.
- Try more general words.
- Try different words that mean the same thing.
- Broaden your search by using fewer words.

I'll bite. Who is this legend?
   68. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1126529)
...and I’ll risk voting despite my ignorance of the legendary Samawura. He will have to wait till next year.

1944 ballot:

1. Lou Gehrig: Great player, great man. In addition to all the HR, was top-10 in triples six times and led the league in ‘26. Not exactly a plodding slugger. (PHOM 1944)

2. Frankie Frisch: Definitely not the best 2b so far, but 366WS, A+ defense, long, productive career, and his teams won. (PHOM 1944)

3. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after – still, was the STATS all-star 1B in 1925, and a probable runner-up to Gehrig in ’27. Good black & gray ink. I’d think peak voters would really like him. Looks like some do, some don’t. (PHOM 1938)

4. Goose Goslin: All-star-type outfielder for many years. Best eligible outfielder. I find him similar to Wheat, better than Kelley, Sheckard.

5. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W% and quite a few of his teams were mediocre at best. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. All that in spite of a 107 ERA+! Now that’s pitching in a pinch! : -) (PHOM 1942)

6. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s.

7. Willie Foster: If he’s 3F Brown, he’s #2; Coveleski, a few slots below; Vance, down a few more; Mays, just off. He winds up near the middle of the ballot.

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, above-average offense for a middle infielder. May have been the best of a weak lot at ss, however. (PHOM 1939)

9. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

10. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense. (PHOM 1940)

11. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. 3 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons. Good gray ink. (PHOM 1926)

12. Mickey Welch: Still think he’s worthy of induction, but pitchers of his era are well-represented already, and he’s not as good as his enshrined brethren. (PHOM 1929)

13. John Beckwith: From all I’ve read, I have no doubts that he was a great hitter and that his defense left a lot to be desired. He probably would not have played a right-spectrum position in the majors, but there certainly would have been a place for that bat.

14. Roger Bresnahan: I dropped him behind Schang for a few years, but Roger’s career suggests brilliance, Wally’s doesn’t. (PHOM 1932)

15. Pie Traynor: Bill James isn’t too fond of him, but still has him 15th all-time at 3b, which makes him 2nd/3rd so far, behind Baker and the still-active Hack. He may well have been overrated historically, but I think he’s being underrated here.

Also in the mix, not necessarily in order: Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Rube Waddell, Larry Doyle, Vic Willis, Carl Mays, Eppa Rixey, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Wally Schang, Spots Poles, Dick Lundy, Edd Roush, Wilbur Cooper, Urban Shocker, Dave Bancroft.

Required explanations:
Rixey: Good for a long time. 8th on my pitcher list.
Van Haltren: Good, not great. STATS AS teams: nada. Wish he’d either get elected or go away.

New people:
Kiki Cuyler: Falls into the great muddle of outfielders. Nothing much special about him.
Waite Hoyt: I’ve got about 15 pitchers under serious consideration and he’s in the bottom 5 of those.
Wes Ferrell: Also in the bottom 5. Fewer innings than any of the others; I prefer Mays, Waddell & (obviously) Foster among the low-innings guys.
   69. Chris Cobb Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:42 PM (#1126530)
Since RMc stops here irregularly, I'll toss in a brief answer:

The key to gaining more info is spelling:

Eiji Sawamura is the spelling, not Samawura. (Google is helpful in suggesting alternate spellings . . . )

Japan's first professional baseball hero.

From Eric Ender's timeline of international baseball history:

"1934: Another American all-star team tours Japan. This one includes Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, and, of course, O’Doul. Also on the trip is catcher Moe Berg, who, unbeknownst to his teammates, uses the trip as a cover to spy on Japanese structures for the OSS. Ruth is a big hit in Japan, but is struck out three times in one game by 17-year old pitcher Eiji Sawamura, who quickly becomes a national hero."

From the JBALL website:

"Since 1936, there have been 78 no-hitters in the Japanese leagues. Eiji Sawamura pitched the first professional no-hitter on September 25, 1936. Before he died in the Second World War, Sawamura had pitched three no-hitters, a feat that has only been matched by Hiroshima Carp pitcher Yoshiro Sotokoba."

Given the discussions on the eligibility of players who play their entire careers outside of North America over on the Constitution thread, it seems that the prevailing sentiment among the electorate is that we should not attempt to consider Japanese players together with players who played in North America, but should create a Japanese or International Wing to be elected after we've caught up to the present.

No formal decision was made, however. With RMc's vote, an official decision now seems called for.

I'm very happy to have learned what I now know about the beginnings of Japanese baseball by researching this vote, but I feel utterly unqualified to assess Sawamura's credentials for election, so I'd prefer that we wait and consider basebal outside North America separately, as discussed elsewhere.
   70. Thane of Bagarth Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:45 PM (#1126532)
Posted by Unfortunate Work of RMc on February 05, 2005 at 08:37 AM (#1126504)
4 Willie Foster: Best remaining Negro League pitcher? Yes.
13 Bill Foster: Elite (as in ee-LITE) pitcher.

Riley's Encyclopedia only has one William Foster listed. Is there another one we've been overlooking? Perhaps Willie had a twin brother who helped bolster his reputation and in truth neither of them are HoM quality.
   71. Thane of Bagarth Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:49 PM (#1126537)
Perhaps Willie had a twin brother who helped bolster his reputation and in truth neither of them are HoM quality.

OR maybe both of them are HoM quality!
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 05, 2005 at 02:49 PM (#1126538)
I'll bite. Who is this legend?

He was one of Japan's greatest pitchers and played during the thirties (his surname was spelled Sawamura, not Samawura, BTW)

It appears his ballot is invalid until he changes his "Omega" :-) pick, since we decided not to include players who played their entire careers outside of MLB (exempting Negro Leaguers and 1860's players, of course). Sawamura also would be ineligible since he retired in 1943, I believe.

BTW, it's good to see RMc back here again (and that he's a Richard Matheson fan :-).
   73. Thane of Bagarth Posted: February 05, 2005 at 03:16 PM (#1126550)
1944 Official Ballot:

1) Lou Gehrig—The “luckiest man on the face of the Earth” speech chokes me up a little every time I hear it.
2) Frankie Frisch—I have him well ahead of Goose. He’s not an “inner-circle” type like Collins, Lajoie, & Hornsby, but the triple digit WARP3 and 300+WS put him in the Bill Dahlen range.
3) Wes Ferrell—Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+ and highest 5 year PRAR among eligible pitchers at 455.
4) Bill Foster—Best Negro League lefty. May not have been as great as his reputation. Playing for consistently great teams and not having much competition for “best lefty” seem to have boosted his legend somewhat. Another lefthander to take a second look at might be John Donaldson.
5) Dick Redding—Not as great as Foster, but pretty darn great.
6) Ben Taylor—I have Ben slotted paired with Bill Terry in my rankings and Terry’s peak & league strength (in WARP3) help him edge out the Goose, so Taylor squeezes in at #6.
7) Goose Goslin—The latest WARP3 numbers agree with WS that he’s well ahead of the OF glut.
8) John Beckwith—Looks like the best Negro League 3rd baseman, which is HoM-worthy. It will be interesting to see how Jud Wilson compares.
9) Joe Sewell—Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. His peak can’t match up with Jennings’, but the rest of his career is solid and moves him ahead.
10) Rube Waddell—142 ERA+ 3.81 DERA. 209 PRAA/429PRAR/145WS in 5 best seasons. Second only to Ferrell in PRAR in his top 5 seasons.
11) Jose Mendez— Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.
12) Hughie Jennings— Nothing new here. He’s all peak, but it’s hard to resist: 52.7/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons.
13) Dobie Moore—Pretty much pegged to Hughie Jennings from here on out.
14) Eppa Rixey— The revised BP numbers have Rixey popping up on the end of my ballot. Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+.
15) Bill Monroe— I see him as slightly better than Childs and not far behind Moore.
16) Pete Browning—Slides down a bit this week, I thought he should be closer to Charley Jones.
17) Charley Jones
18) Urban Shocker—The third eligible pitcher with top 5 PRAR > 400.
19) Clark Griffith
20) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS.
21) Fielder Jones—New WARP3 moves him down a few spots.
22) Harry Hooper
23) Ed Cicotte
24) Jack Quinn
25) Kiki Cuyler
26) Dick Lundy
27) Vic Willis
28) John Donaldson
29) George Van Haltren
30) Jimmy Ryan

Other Top 10 not on my ballot
35) George Sisler—Totals (70.5 career) are not as positive as WS (292).
79) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 31.7 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity.

New Eligibles in Top 100
32) Waite Hoyt
53) Red Lucas
89) Ed Brandt
   74. Brent Posted: February 05, 2005 at 03:55 PM (#1126560)
...since we decided not to include players who played their entire careers outside of MLB (exempting Negro Leaguers and 1860's players, of course).

Is that really what we decided? My recollection is that there was a strong sentiment to exclude (or hold a separate election) for those who played their entire careers outside North America. A few posters also wanted to exclude career minor leaguers, but I believe that most of us wanted them to be included.
   75. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: February 05, 2005 at 03:59 PM (#1126562)
Boy, this is what I get for posting on two hours sleep.

Let's try again:

1 Lou Gehrig: The Iron Horse.
2 Goose Goslin: Honk honk!
3 Frankie Frisch: The Alan Trammell of 1920.
4 Willie Foster: Best remaining Negro League pitcher? Yes.
5 John Beckwith: Hot hitter, with a head to match.
6 Jose Mendez: Cuba's best pitcher ever?
7 Hugh Duffy: Wattaheckuvapeak!
8 Jake Beckley: Real good, long time.
9 Joe Sewell: Solid on defense, decent hitter.
10 Pete Browning: Gladiator or crazy drunk? You decide.
11 George van Haltren: Best remaining 19th centurion.
12 George Sisler: Don't hate him because he hit .420.
13 Kiki Cuyler: One of the best hitters in baseball from 1925-35.
14 Burleigh Grimes: An appropriate name for the last (legal) spitballer.
15 Eiji Sawamura: I am legend.

(W)e decided not to include players who played their entire careers outside of MLB (exempting Negro Leaguers and 1860's players, of course).

We did? When? Why?
   76. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 05, 2005 at 04:14 PM (#1126580)
Is that really what we decided? My recollection is that there was a strong sentiment to exclude (or hold a separate election) for those who played their entire careers outside North America. A few posters also wanted to exclude career minor leaguers, but I believe that most of us wanted them to be included.

I actually echo your sentiments, Brent, but the majority of the voters (which wasn't the whole electorate) were against the idea of including them from the HOM. There was some sentiment for a separate wing of the HOM for them, though.

One strong argument against was that the HOM was instituted as a shrine to be compared with the HOF. Since the senior institution doesn't include players who played their whole careers in Japan, Cuba or the minors, the idea was that we should do the same thing.
   77. PhillyBooster Posted: February 05, 2005 at 07:43 PM (#1126795)
1. Henry Louis "Lou" Gehrig (n/e) -- Fourth greatest "Henry Louis" of the 20th century, after (1) Henry Louis "Hank" Aaron; (2) Henry Louis "H.L." Mencken, and (3) Henry Louis "Henry Louis" Gates, Jr.

2. Frankie Frisch (2) -- One of the best second basemen ever.

3. Eppa Rixey (3) -- Pitcher replacement is lower than you think it is. Also, unlike hitter replacement, you can't really replace it with one guy. We're all pretty good at spouting off a list of replacement level position players who turned in 600 PA at their position. But how many replacement level pitchers can you name who threw 160-200 innings in their replacement level season? Part of being replacement level is that your innings necessarily drop. Besides being lower than hitters' replacment, a pitcher that has to be replaced with replacement-level talent essentially has to be replaced with 2 or 3 or 4 different pitchers. That's a hidden "cost" that doesn't get tallied when considering high IP, "very good" pitchers like Rixey.

4. Jake Beckley (4) -- I guess Jake and I will be hanging around together for a lot longer than I originally thought.

5. Jose Mendez (6) -- We seem to love Wes Ferrell. I think he was no Jose Mendez

6. Gavy Cravath (5) -- Full credit for the nearly-half of his career that is buried in old PCL and AA stat-books. Even conservative estimages put him above 300 win shares -- probably over 350. He was among the best deadball sluggers ever.

7. Dolf Luque (6) -- See Mendez comment. Also, Cravath comment. It took the World War player dearth for Luque to finally get a solid shot at the majors, despite numerous seasons of top-rate pitching at a young age in Cuba, the Negro Leagues, and the top white minors. He doesn't get credit for more than he did, but he does get to fill out the left side of his bell curve a little. Those Cuban league games counted too, and I think they have to be considered in creating the "big picture".

8. Goose Goslin (n/e) -- okay, he's got the Win Shares, but not really much else. Is he really better than George van Haltren? I think this ranking is lower than most, but I could see him going either up or down from here.

9. Mickey Welch (7) Am I getting bored, or just less impressed with his numbers to 400th time I've looked at them? I don't know. In any case, I'm less inspired about pushing his candidacy than I have been in previous years, and his "subjective points" ranking is starting to slide a little.

10. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (11) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Pete Browning (12) -- One of the best hitters ever, but with one of the shortest careers. Season adjusted, he's Albert Belle.

13. Bill Monroe (13) -- still one of the best.

14. Clark Griffith (14) -- The HoM needs more PITCHERS.

15. Dick Redding (15) -- Like this guy.

16. Tommy Leach -- My #2 "career only" candidate after Beckley.

T17. Wes Ferrell and Vic Willis. I'm going to need more convincing before I put a guy with fewer innings than Bob Caruthers on my ballot.
   78. Howie Menckel Posted: February 05, 2005 at 07:45 PM (#1126796)
1944 ballot, which is our 47th.

Nice to add another mega-legend in Gehrig this year.

1. LOU GEHRIG - Top 4 in Slugging Pct and OPS every year from 1926-37. 5-time OBP leader. Cleared 175 OPS+ 10 times! Still very good in 1938, seems to have fallen off a cliff in 1939 for some reason.
2. WILLIE FOSTER - Better than half-brother, Rube, but he didn't get the traditional 'shiny new toy' bump last year. Bittersweet to read this: Detroit slugger Charlie Gehringer told Foster after a 1929 game involving the two, "If I could paint you white I could get $150,000 for you right now."

3. FRANKIE FRISCH - Only four OPS+ seasons over 120, but this 2B-3B played forever. Needed to be at least good fielder to be a HOMer, and there's every reason to believe he was a great one.
4. GOOSE GOSLIN - Cleared 135 OPS+ seven times, wow. Career accomplishments very similar to Wheat. Easily a HOMer, but too many close comps are on hand or on deck for a first-ballot entry here.
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - His era clearly is underrepresented on the hill AND it was a time of rough competition, a double bonus which should boost him. It's remarkable how much better his W-L was than the teams he pitched for.
6. EPPA RIXEY - Moved ahead of some colleagues last year as I reviewed the WW I issue. If only he had one huge year. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately while Rixey may never make it.
7. GEORGE SISLER - I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. HUGHIE JENNINGS - One solid season short of an "elect me" slot, probably forever, on my ballot. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
9. WES FERRELL - Needs more analysis from me; 117 ERA+ blows, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player.
10. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
11. CUPID CHILDS - Jumped up five slots last year. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. But I can't say I'm sure he belongs.
12. JOHN BECKWITH - His thread has boosted him onto my ballot, but I'm still not all the way sold on him. A great player for a time and glad to see him get some deserved props, though.
13. MICKEY WELCH - Slips another slot again this year. If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
14. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
15. JOE SEWELL - Bounces back onto my ballot. Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them.

KIKI CUYLER - K-eye K-eye just short both on peak and career for a corner OF. What did he do in 1922 in majors? No AB, no position in field, just "1 G."
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Not quite Faber, and thus not quite Rixey, either. Barely off my ballot in a tough year.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough. Still, I'm softening a little.
DICK LUNDY - He really does present a problem for Sewell, doesn't he? I think Sewell needed to be a slightly better fielder and Lundy needs a tiny bit more evidence.
PETE BROWNING - Missed last year for the first time in many years. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time.
LARRY DOYLE - Misses after two yrs on ballot; needs to outmaneuver Childs for a slot. Awesome hitting stats for a 2B; with a little longer career and decent fielding, he'd be a HOMer.
PIE TRAYNOR - Reached 120 OPS+ only twice. Long career for a 3B, but tough competition for INF slots right now. Probably better than the 29th slot he occupies.
   79. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 05, 2005 at 08:30 PM (#1126853)
I was one who strongly supported NOT including Japanese players in this phase of the voting because I didnt' want deserving major league players to be excluded because of them. I do believe that we should go back and look over this when we catch up along with managers, Gm's, innovators, wrtiers, etc.

I must say RMc should post a different player for the 15th spot. Not his fault since I believe he is new, but it is either that or we all need to redo our ballots to factor him in.

I say that we should have an official ruling on this next week but for the 1944 ballot they should be excluded.
   80. DavidFoss Posted: February 05, 2005 at 08:42 PM (#1126866)
Max's ballot reminds me of the first time I saw the Godfather. I popped the wrong tape in to start by mistake. James Caan was blown away at the toolbooth in the opening sequence and then Brando died not long into the tape. I remember thinking that I couldn't believe he won an Oscar for that. Needless to say, it all made sense when the final credits ran at the end of the "first" tape and I had a "prequel" to watch after that.
   81. Al Peterson Posted: February 05, 2005 at 09:32 PM (#1126922)
1944 Ballot. Two new eligibles join the listings.

1. Lou Gehrig (-). Pull up your chair at the inner circle table Mr. Gehrig. You've earned it.

2. Frankie Frisch (3). Excellent hitting 2bmen, throw in good leather, winner of 4 titles, and a MVP. Flash is worthy.

3. Bill Foster (5). If we're going to elect NeL players we could do much worse than this Foster.

4. Goose Goslin (-). Nine years top 10 in the league for Extra Base Hits.

5. Rube Waddell (4). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

6. Edd Roush (6). Holdouts have cost him election so far.

7. Jimmy Ryan (7). Let's see: good hitting CF, longish career, decent fielder. Yep, I like that combo.

8. Clark Griffith (11). Some tweaks to my pitcher rankings show him moving up amongst the populace. Is he HOM worthy is another question. Fills an era lacking a player or two in the HOM.

9. Dick Redding (8). Real close to Griffith so I'll place them side by side.

10. Pete Browning (12).
Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

11. Hughie Jennings (9). SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, albeit for a short stretch of time. Master of the hit by pitch.

12. John Beckwith (15). Character issues shouldn't be his downfall. How you did between the white lines, that's what matters.

13. George Van Haltren (10). Have to make an effort to keep Ryan and Van Haltren near each other. Just seems after thirtysome years they're like PB & J.

14. Hugh Duffy (16). Duffy bounces from on to off the ballot every couple of years. His on cycle is here. Nice peak argument is good, did work in one-league era.

15. Eppa Rixey (14). Long career, lost a year to WWI, very good most of the time, outstanding rarely. That's a lot of IPs to overlook.


16. John McGraw
17. Spotswood Poles
18. Tommy Leach
19. Jake Beckley
20. Cupid Childs
21. Wes Ferrell. His peak looks pretty good. We're still talking Caruthers lite though. Hitting exploits are nice but still only 1300 plate appearances.
22. Mike Griffin
23. George Sisler
24. Vic Willis
25. Kiki Cuyler. Got sat down at the end of the 1927 season and the World Series; apparently had a run-in with the manager and owner. Good to see clubhouse cancers touch all baseball eras.
26. Tony Mullane
27. Roger Bresnahan
28. Joe Sewell
29. Bobby Veach
30. Jose Mendez
31. Mickey Welch
32. Fred Dunlap
33. Fielder Jones
34. Dobie Moore
35. Carl Mays
36. Charley Jones
37. Urban Shocker
38. Wally Schang
39. Ben Taylor
40. Hack Wilson
41. Frank Chance
42. Burleigh Grimes
43. Dick Lundy
44. Pie Traynor
45. Mike Tiernan
46. Harry Hooper
47. Addie Joss
48. Bill Monroe
49. Gavvy Cravath
50. Eddie Cicotte

Needed explanations:

Beckley, Sewell, and Sisler do alright in the rating system. Just not well enough. No one is making a major mistake by putting them on their ballot.
   82. Starring RMc as Bradley Scotchman Posted: February 05, 2005 at 09:54 PM (#1126953)
I'll drop the Sawamura pick...for now. (cue evil laughter)

1 Lou Gehrig: The Iron Horse.
2 Goose Goslin: Honk honk!
3 Frankie Frisch: Actually, more like the Roberto Alomar of 1930.
4 Willie Foster: Best remaining Negro League pitcher? Yes.
5 John Beckwith: Hot hitter, with a head to match.
6 Jose Mendez: Cuba's best pitcher ever?
7 Hugh Duffy: Wattaheckuvapeak!
8 Jake Beckley: Real good, long time.
9 Joe Sewell: Solid on defense, decent hitter.
10 George van Haltren: Best remaining 19th centurion.
11 Pete Browning: Gladiator or crazy drunk? You decide.
12 George Sisler: Don't hate him because he hit .420.
13 Kiki Cuyler: One of the best hitters in baseball from 1925-35.
14 Burleigh Grimes: An appropriate name for the last (legal) spitballer.
15 Eppa Rixey: I am not legend, but still pretty good.
   83. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 05, 2005 at 10:04 PM (#1126974)
Thanks, RMc!
   84. OCF Posted: February 05, 2005 at 10:16 PM (#1127000)

[i}3 Frankie Frisch: The Alan Trammell of 1920.
3 Frankie Frisch: Actually, more like the Roberto Alomar of 1930.

Yeah, one of those. See also Biggio, Larkin, Sandberg, Whitaker.
   85. EricC Posted: February 05, 2005 at 11:05 PM (#1127099)
1944 ballot.

1. Lou Gehrig An incomparable great.

2. Wally Schang I use performance in standard deviations above average (both relative to position and among all players) and career length as the pillars of my rating system, with adjustments for postition. Effectively, catchers get something like a 50 percent bonus in terms of conventional rating systems, which puts the catcher in/out line about the same standard as Cooperstown's. With a 117 ERA+ in 1842 games and contributions to many pennant winners, more than meets the standards of Cooperstown.

3. Goose Goslin All eligibles with more WARP3 than Goslin have been elected, except for Gehrig and Frisch. All eligibles with more WS than Goslin have been elected, except for Gehrig, Frisch and Mullane. With a classic HoMer career shape, I don't see the fatal flaw that will keep Goslin out.

4. Joe Sewell Position player leaders in Win Shares, 1921-1929:
Ruth, Hornsby, Heilmann, Frisch, Sewll, Goslin, Speaker, Rice, Traynor, Cobb.
Certain patterns of greatness are not apparent if one only looks at career totals, career averages, and peak, and doesn't look at best performances over decadish timespans (see also Traynor). League strength considerations and position balance help raise him above Frisch.

5. Frankie Frisch More career than Sewell but not as dominant. (Of course he belongs in the HoM.)

In/out line should be here.

6. Sam Rice Long, steady career. Makes the ballot under the philosophy that players who rise above average for long enough can deserve the HoM even if they were never dominant players. Barely rates above the 16th player on my list (Beckley).

7. Roger Bresnahan Best catcher of the 1900s, but note NL weakness.

8. Eppa Rixey Good enough for a long enough time to make him the next (final?) 1920s "career" pitcher choice. Very telling that he does well in my system even though I discount NL performance. Some WWI credit pushes him above Hoyt.

9. Waite Hoyt Long career in what I see as the better league at the time. Second wind as a reliever pushed him onto the ballot. Career ERA+ not spectacular; not sure that he deserves to be on the ballot, but not sure that he doesn't.

10. Jose Mendez Trusting that his dominant Cuban years and his total run average title in his fulltime NeL season indicate greatness.

11. Pie Traynor Position Player Leaders in Win Shares 1923-1933:
Ruth, Gehrig, Simmons, Goslin, Hornsby, Frisch, Traynor, P. Waner, Manush, J. Sewell

12. Harry Hooper Rice's near-twin in a less-offense heavy era.

13. Urban Shocker My system likes the players who are consistently good.

14. George "Rube" Waddell Off the charts as a strikeout pitcher for his time. His multiple ERA+ titles in strong leagues convince me of his greatness. Agnostic on whether his unearned runs and W/L record indicate anything more than random bad luck.

15. Wes Ferrell Similar to Vance in value, sure, but I see Vance as having been a bit overrated. Haven't yet properly incorporated his hitting into his rating, but a minimum estimate pushes him onto my ballot. For all giving Ferrell hitting credit, note that Carl Mays is also another pitcher who perhaps hit well-enough to be ballot-worthy, and take a look at Joe Wood too.

Left off:

Beckley, Van Haltren, and Jennings are in my retroactive personal HoM, but I'm an unsentimental timeliner, so sayonara! :-)

Griffith is a fine pitcher who has made by ballot before.

Bill Foster should make my ballot in the next few years if not elected by then.

Unlike Cravath and Chapman, I think that Sisler was definitely on course for a HoM career. I sympathize, but tweaking my system to let him in would let too many others slip in too. For those with him just off their ballots, note that his pitching could be a tiebreaker.

Too many OF from the same era have better credentials than Cuyler for "Kiki" to make my ballot.

I have Sol White, Ben Taylor, and Dick Lundy rated higher among eligible NeL position players than Beckwith.
   86. Chris Cobb Posted: February 06, 2005 at 03:12 AM (#1127466)
Eric, a question:

Do you have comprehensive data on, say, players finishing in the top ten players in win shares over their ten best seasons? I am curious as to how much Pie Traynor is truly distinguished by achieving the seventh highest win-share total by a position player between 1923 and 1932, for instance. Certainly that list puts him in good company, but how many others are doing the same thing at other times?
   87. Brent Posted: February 06, 2005 at 03:16 AM (#1127470)
John (Don’t Call Me ‘Da Boss’) Murphy wrote:

I actually echo your sentiments, Brent, but the majority of the voters (which wasn't the whole electorate) were against the idea of including them from the HOM. There was some sentiment for a separate wing of the HOM for them, though.

I’m not sure how you interpret a “majority” (the Dade County hanging chad definition?) but I went back through the threads and will try to summarize the comments that were posted.

The discussion began on January 10 with a comment by sunnyday2 on the World War II thread about reasons for missed playing time, in which he said he wouldn’t give major league credit for minor league play. The debate quickly shifted to eligibility of Japanese players, and eventually the debate was moved to the “Our Constitution” thread.

I’ll split the “voting” into two rounds, before and after Robc made the suggestion of creating a separate wing for Japanese players, because after that suggestion was made the discussion mostly revolved around a separate wing versus total exclusion.

In the first round, four voters made comments that favored excluding career minor league or Japanese players (Sunnyday2’s original comment WWII # 21; Michael Bass # 25 & 26 & OC # 105; Rick A WWII # 27; and Daryn OC # 109); six voters made comments that favored including career Japanese and/or minor league players (DanG OC # 101, Devin McCullen # 102, Ardo # 103, KJOK # 104, Karlmagnus # 108, and me WWII # 24 and OC # 100).

In post OC # 111, Robc mentioned the possibility of adding a Japanese League wing after the voting catches up to modern time. In addition to Robc, 7 more voters posted comments favoring the idea (including from the first round two voters who favored including career Japanese players and one voter who favored excluding them) (Michael Bass # 114; Jschmeagol # 116, 117, 124, 125; Kelly from SD # 122; KJOK # 123; John Murphy # 127; Dr. Chaleeko # 128; and me # 130). Four more voters posted comments opposing career Japanese and/or minor league players without necessarily endorsing the idea of a separate wing (PhillyBooster # 119; Howie Menckel # 120; Dan B # 121 – opposing inclusion in regular votes, noncommittal on separate wing; DanG # 126 – opposing inclusion, noncommittal on separate wing).

Is there a “majority” opinion here? Since there wasn’t a formal ballot, it’s a bit tough to interpret, but it seems to me that there were majorities on two questions. (a) A majority supported some kind of inclusion of career Japanese players, either in a separate wing or otherwise (I’ll interpret 12 unique voters as commenting in favor, 5 opposed, several others noncommittal). (b) A majority oppose including career Japanese League players on the regular ballots (I’ll count as opponents all 8 who supported a separate wing, plus the 7 other unique voters who specifically opposed including them either in the HoM as a whole or on the regular ballot). Combining these two majority positions apparently implies support for a separate wing to be added at the end of the project.

It also appeared to me that several issues were not resolved. In particular, a number of options were mentioned for determining how much MLB playing time is needed for consideration – Daryn suggested one game; Jschmeagol suggested 5 or 6 years; Kelly from SD suggested 6 or 7; DanG suggested 50 career WS. The discussion mostly focused on Japanese baseball; I didn’t see that there was any consensus to create a separate wing for career minor leaguers, nor did I see a consensus to exclude career minor leaguers. (I counted 5 comments that could be interpreted as favoring the exclusion of career minor leaguers, 3 comments that favored their inclusion, but most of the posts ignored the minor league aspect of the issue.)

A final request – whatever is decided, and however that decision is made, let’s put it in writing in “Our Constitution.” It bothers me that RMc’s ballot was ruled ineligible when the Constitution does not appear to prohibit his vote for a career Japanese player. There shouldn’t be any hidden voting rules floating around that don’t appear in the Constitution.
   88. Rick A. Posted: February 06, 2005 at 03:50 AM (#1127522)

Just want to make sure that you didn't forget Bill Foster. He's not on your ballot, but there's no explanation for him. He;s a fairly popular candidate.

   89. Brent Posted: February 06, 2005 at 04:33 AM (#1127573)
1944 Ballot:

I use WS for position players with a bonus for good fielding (which I think is undervalued in WS) and a combination of WS and WARP for pitchers, along with some info from Chris J’s site. My ballot focuses on how good a player was during his peak/prime.

1. Lou Gehrig –
If I could pick one season to go back in time and watch baseball, I might pick Gehrig’s first great season, 1926. What other year could you have seen so many of the all-time greats? Old timers Cobb, Collins, Johnson, Lloyd, Speaker, and Williams were still active. Ruth, Charleston, and Hornsby were in their prime. Rising stars would include Foxx, Gehrig, Grove, and Paige. In the World Series I’d have seen Alexander’s famous game 7 stumble and win.

2. Wes Ferrell –
The uber stats just love this pitcher, so I’ve been surprised to see his name left off of so many ballots. From NBJHBA, here is a comparison of Ferrell to Vance and Coveleski:

BJ rank Career WS Top 3_ Top 5 Per season
35. Vance___ 241 36-32-26 124 31.03
40. Ferrell___ 233 35-32-28 129 30.25
58. Coveleski 245 32-29-29 142 29.85

BP loves him even more:

Career WARP3
Ferrell 81.2
Rixey 79.7
Vance 79.5
Coveleski 78.9
Grimes 73.5

Awfully impressive considering the differences in innings pitched.

3. Frankie Frisch –
Not a great hitter, his glove places him ahead of Childs and Doyle.

4. Willie Foster –
Chris Cobb's analysis indicating that Foster was comparable to Vance and Coveleski places him here on my ballot.

5. Hughie Jennings –
According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Combine that with outstanding offense (OPS+ from 1894-98 of 110, 143, 152, 146, and 149) and it's not surprising that his team won 3 pennants and placed second the other two seasons. Better peak than most HOMers.

6. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

7. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

8. José de la Caridad Méndez –
Cuban Baseball: A Statistical History, 1878-1961 by Jorge S. Figueredo lists the Cuban League all-time leaders in winning percentage:

José Méndez .731
Ray Brown .696
Carlos Royer .677
Martin Dihigo .656
Camilo Pascual .644

9. Goose Goslin –
In the same general range as Zack Wheat.

10. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

11. Buzz Arlett –
Am I still allowed to vote for him? He hit for average, power, drew walks, and had several outstanding seasons as a pitcher. His fielding wasn’t so bad as to negate all of that.

12. Clark Griffith –
Outstanding pitcher from 1895-99; good pitcher, albeit with a lighter load, in 1894, 1900-01, and 1903.

13. Spottswood Poles –
Good hitter and fielder; comparable to Fielder Jones, who I also like.

14. Roger Bresnahan –
His peak towers over Schang’s. I still hold out hope that he will eventually be elected.

15. George J. Burns –
Outstanding leadoff hitter; 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

New arrivals.

Kiki Cuyler was good; I have him at # 34. Waite Hoyt and Jimmy Dykes don’t make my top 50.

Top 10 not on my ballot:

John Beckwith –
I now have him placed at # 20. Given the choice between him and Leach, I'll go with the glove.

Eppa Rixey –
Ranked at # 21. During their primes, Grimes was better.

Jake Beckley –
Not in my top 50. Undistinguished.

Joe Sewell –
I have him at # 42. I don’t believe in grading on a curve.

George Van Haltren –
# 31. I like Van Haltren, but he doesn't have the peak needed to boost him higher on my ballot.
   90. Kelly in SD Posted: February 06, 2005 at 05:49 AM (#1127645)
1944 ballot:

System: Win shares in 3 straight years – peak. Win shares in best 7 years – prime. Win shares per 648 plate appearances. For pitchers it is win shares per 275 innings pitched if the career was after 1893. Win shares in career. the first, second, and fourth are adjusted for season length. Prime is weighted the heaviest, then peak, then career and seasonal are about the same. Also, I factor in times being best in league at one’s position and one’s competition. I factor in black ink and grey ink. I rely heavily on the NeL threads and figures to get a feel for players and then try to find a comparable player that we have full stats for.

1. Lou Gehrig: Let’s see: Best career win shares, Best peak, Best prime, Best per season. Only regret is not changing the rules so he could be enshrined while he was still alive. Hell, we let Joe Jackson in and he is still banned from baseball. I think the Hall of Fame made a better decision on this one.

2. Mickey Welch: His career record against Hall of Merit pitchers: 61-34
It seems to me the most popular reason not to vote for Welch is his ERA+ is not as good as other pitchers from his time. I thought I would take a look at what could cause this and what this difference actually meant.
First, the defensive support:
Number of times he pitched for a team that max’d out its defensive win shares: once
Number of time other HoM pitchers had similar defenisve support:
Ward: twice - 1880, 1882
Galvin: twice - 1879, 1885
Keefe: four - 1883, 1884, 1885, 1892
Radbourn: five - 1882, 1883, 1884, 1889, 1890
Clarkson: eight - 1885, 1886, 1887, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1892 (both teams he pitched for this year), 1894
Caruthers: five - 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888
Rusie: once – 1894

This may have something to do with why Galvin and Welch had such lower ERA+ than Keefe, Radbourn, Clarkson, or Caruthers.
Second, what does the ERA+ difference mean?
For example, Radbourn had a 2.67 career ERA in leagues with a composite 3.21 ERA for an ERA+ of 120. Welch, 2.71 in 3.06 leagues for an ERA+ of 113. So adjusting to Radbourn’s ERA context Welch would have an ERA of 2.84. Over 450 innings that difference is 8.5 earned runs.
Keefe’s 125 based on 2.62 in 3.28 leagues? Welch would have an ERA of 2.90. Over 450 innings that is a difference of 14 earned runs.
Clarkson’s 134 based on 2.81 in 3.75? Welch would have an ERA of 3.32. Over 450 innings that is a difference of 25.5 earned runs.
Now look again at the times each pitcher had defensive support that max’d out.
Obviously, it was not all defensive support that made the difference. But, put each pitcher in front of the same defense and their numbers will be closer together.
To look at it slightly differently cut the earned runs difference per their average season of 450 innings into today’s era with 225 innings pitched. Radbourn would allow just over 4 earned runs fewer than Welch, Keefe – 7, and Clarkson – 13. So when you say you can’t vote for Welch because he has a 113 ERA+, does that mean you can’t vote for him because of literally a handful of runs a season?

3. Charley Jones: I give full credit for the 2 and one-sixth black-balled years. 5th in peak (Gehrig, Jennings, Browning, Duffy), 2nd in prime, 9th in per season, 8th in career. 4 times a Win Shares all-star, 3 times best in majors. 5 times a STATS all-star. OPS+ of 149 is 3rd (Browning, Cravath). Adjusted for season length, 9 20 ws seasons, 6 - 25+, 4 - 30+ and that is without giving credit for the missing years. 8th in black ink, 4th in grey ink. 8th most pennants added.

4. Pete Browning: Prime – 3rd behind Jones, Gehrig. Peak – 3rd behind Jennings, Gehrig. Season – 6th behind Chance, Cravath, Bresnahan, Seymour, Gehrig. 5 times a win shares all-star, 2 times majors. 8 times STATS all-star. OPS+162 is 12 points better than next highest among eligibles – Cravath (other than Gehrig). Only Duffy and Van Haltren have more pennants added.

5. Hugh Duffy: Prime – 3rd (Jones, Browning). Peak – 3rd (Jennings, Browning). Career – 8th. Excellent defensive center fielder on one of the best defensive teams ever. Rates at an A+ with 4 gold gloves. Only Van Haltren has more pennants added. 5 times a Win Shares all-star. Only Cravath has more black ink.
2 times best position player in the league: 1893 tied with Delahanty, 1894.
3 other times in top 5: 1890 Players League (the strongest of the three) 2nd by 1 behind Ward; 1891 AA: 3rd behind Brouthers and Brown; 1892: 5th behind 2 HoMers Brouthers and Dahlen, Cupid Childs, and E Smith.
1895: 11th behind 5 HoMers, Jennings, McKean, Stenzel, Lange, Griffin, and tied with another HoMer – Keeler.
1897. 8th behind 6 HoMers and Jennings.
1898. 13th behind 7 HoMers, Jennings, Van Haltren, Ryan, McGraw, and E Smith. Tied with 2 other HoMers – Clarke and Wallace.
His Defensive Win Shares are NOT the result of playing centerfield. He actually spent only 40% of his time in center. He moved out of center because Billy Hamilton came to the team.

6. Frankie Frisch: Gets here on basis of long career that is mostly prime. Overshadowed by Hornsby for much of the 1920s. Excellent fielder – A+ by win shares. My system sees him as the best infielder available. Only GVH has more adjWS for career. Holding him back – his peak seasons did not occur in a row, his OPS+ is only 111. 4 times a top 5 player. PHOM as soon as I start one.

7. Goose Goslin: Long, consistent career. 6 times AL top 3 outfielder. 5 times top 5 position player in AL. 11 times 20+ win shares, 7 times 25+. Only Gehrig had more Grey Ink. Created 118 runs per 162 games. Only Frisch, Van Haltren, and Gehrig had more career win shares adjusted for season length. 10th highest peak.
   91. Kelly in SD Posted: February 06, 2005 at 05:53 AM (#1127648)
8. Bill Foster: 3rd best NeL pitcher ever. That is a Hall of Meriter! I was rereading my NBJHBA and he makes the point about the number of great players in the Negro Leagues. He points out that Ernie Banks, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Jackie Robinson, and Roy Campanella came out of the NeL in 7 years. I’m not saying this depth continued back in history, but it didn’t just spring up out of the ground because the white majors stopped being racist, either. Foster was a great pitcher at a high level who had a long peak.
I may not have another chance to post this ballot so I am posting now. I am looking forward to the rest of Chris' translations which may cause Foster to move up. I may repost a new ballot if new info requires it and time permits, but otherwise this is final.

9. George Van Haltren: Career – Second best. Prime – 6th (Jones, Browning, Duffy, Burns, Gehrig). What hurts him is his peak and seasonal numbers. 12 years with 20+ win shares. Adjust for season length and 9 are over 25. 2 times win shares league and majors all-star. Very consistent player.

10. Cupid Childs: Biggest move up from raw numbers. Best second baseman in majors 1890-1896. Better than HoMer Bid McPhee every year. Also had 2 second bests afterward. If you want to discount his 1890 season in the American Association where he was the best player in the league, but even with a discount, he was the best second basemen in the game. Hub Collins had 3 fewer win shares in the National League – which lost most of its best players to the Players League also. The best in the Players League had 11 fewer. Tenth in prime.

11. Dobie Moore: Great shortstop. Now giving some credit for seasons spent in the military. Great hitter. Maybe not at the level of Beckwith, but still excellent production for a shortstop. Quite a bit better fielder than Beckwith.

12. George Burns: Steps back in front of Roush this time. 5th in prime (Jones, Browning, Duffy, Gehrig). 6th in peak (Jennings, Jones, Browning, Duffy, Gehrig). 5 times all-star and 3 times majors by win-shares. Great lead-off man (who have definitely been overlooked). 4th in black ink (Cravath, Duffy, Gehrig). 13th in grey ink. 10 years with 20+ win shares.

13. Edd Roush: 11th in prime, 9th in peak, 10th in season. 9th in career. A solid to excellent player for a long period of time. An A- defender with 5 gold glvoes. 5 times a win shares all-star. 9 seasons with 20+ win shares.

14. Vic Willis: 4000 innings with a 118 ERA plus. 4 times league all-star. Only Grimes had more Grey Ink. Best pitcher in league in 1899, 1901. Second best pitcher in 1902. More Grey Ink than 7 HoMers from post-1893 era.

15. Wes Ferrell: No, I am not drinking the Kool-Aid. He has an excellent peak. I see him as the 3rd best pitcher of the period (Grove, Hubbell were better.) Similar to Mays, Griffith, and Willis. 6 times an all-star. Mays had such great defensive and offensive support that Ferrell often didn’t share. Griffith wasn’t dominating in his era the way it seems Ferrell was.

Top 10s Not on the ballot. Rixey, Griffith, Beckley, Sewell.
Rixey is #45 on my list. Small peak and prime. I don’t see him as the number 1 for his teams for most of his career. Long consistent careers without high peaks or primes really suffer in my system.
Griffith #24: Raw numbers place him a few places higher, but not enough big years. 2 years is not enough (unless your name is Red Faber...). I think it took a lot longer for pitchers’ arms and managerial strategy to adapt to the 60’6” distance. Other than Young and Nichols there were no other pitchers who could handle league-leading totals year after year. I think managers and pitchers did not realize that it was not healthy for the arm to pitch as much as they did. For one or two years, arms could handle it, but then Poof. For many pitchers in the 1890s, they had to learn to throw at a longer distance – relearn how to throw a breaking pitch, etc, after their arms had matured AND while being asked to pitch huge numbers of innings.
Griffith was not asked to pitch these huge totals and so he stayed healthy and got to put up very good career totals.
Beckley: #59: Consistent 22 adjWS a season player. But NO peak and a LOW prime. Only 1 to 3 times the best firstbaseman in his league.
Beckwith: #17: Too many good candidates. Just a hair behind Jennings who is just behind Moore. So tough to figure out the last 3 people on my ballot.
Jennings: #16: Great peak and prime but nothing on either end. Great fielder. Wish I could squeeze another 2 players on the ballot.

Hoyt: 89th or so
Cuyler: 45th or so
   92. EricC Posted: February 06, 2005 at 12:24 PM (#1127919)
Eric, a question:

Do you have comprehensive data on, say, players finishing in the top ten players in win shares over their ten best seasons?

I'll compile and post this data on the next discussion thread.
   93. Philip Posted: February 06, 2005 at 02:17 PM (#1127957)
Time squeeze led me to miss a vote for the first time. I'm back for the 1944 ballot:

1. Gehrig – One of the top 1B all-time
2. Frisch – Definite Homer

3. Foster – Great peak puts him ahead of Griffith.
4. Griffith – Covaleski with a little less peak.

5. Leach – Another infielder who is greatly underrated. Should rate close to Groh but probably doesn’t get the positional boost Groh is getting. Similar career to Ryan/VH comes out ahead when taking into account his time at third base. Makes my pHoM this year.
6. Ferrell – Also has a great peak. One of my favorites.
7. Mendez – Great peak, a little more career and he would be a clear HOMer. Now he is still a borderline candidate.
8. Rixey – Borderline, I see him even with Mendez.
9. Beckwith – Could still move up.
10. Goslin – I’m starting cautious with him but he may still rise.
11. Van Haltren – Made my pHoM a few years ago and was probably the last of the 19th century to do so.
12. Shocker – Typical 10’s/20’s pitcher who makes my ballot based on his great peak. Underrated by this group.
13. Ryan – Nearly identical to VH.

14. Redding – Using Chris Cobb’s Win Share estimates, he rates very similar to Cooper.
15. Cooper – Steadily rising in my ranking. Still have to see if he stood out enough from his pears to remain so high.
   94. Andrew M Posted: February 06, 2005 at 02:41 PM (#1127976)
1944 Ballot

1. (new) Lou Gehrig. Best 1B ever. I think the movie “Pride of the Yankees” is a bit overrated, though.

2. (3) Frankie Frisch.
An outstanding player who maintained a high level of performance (20+ WS, 7.5+ WARP1) for well more than a decade. A+ fielder.

3. (new) Goose Goslin. Best corner OF candidate since Heilmann. (Not as good as Heilmann, but does have almost 1000 more plate appearances.)

4. (4) George Van Haltren. His career Win Shares are very similar to Frisch’s and Goslin’s without quite as high a peak. In fact, I’m not sure either of the uber stat systems fully supports putting Goslin ahead of Van Haltren. Adjusting his career to 162 game seasons he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him some credit.

5. (5) Clark Griffith. More peak than Rixey, more career than guys like Vance, Waddell or Ferrell. His .620 career win pct. for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams is impressive--as are his 121 ERA+ and 1895-1901 peak.

6. (6) Willie Foster. Reputation as the greatest left-handed pitcher in the Negro Leagues intuitively sounds HoM-worthy. Maybe he’s not as good as his reputation, but he did win 70% of his games with some impressive black/gray ink estimates.

7. (7) Hugh Duffy. Looking at his Win Shares he looks like the best of the high peak/prime, 8000 plate appearance, 10-12 quality year outfielders. Impressive peak/prime numbers over 3, 5, 7, 10 years (incl. 8 seasons over 25 adjWS/8.9 WARP), good black and gray ink, A+ CF/OF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Rapid decline around age 33, but enough career (336 adjWS) to merit serious consideration.

8. (8) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B.

9. (9) Larry Doyle. The NY Giants sure seem have had 2B covered for the first quarter of the 20th century. Higher career OPS+ (126) than all but a handful of 2B, including Frisch. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. Also captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. I assume John McGraw would not have played him at 2B if his fielding was not adequate for the position.

10. (10) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 (but for 1920) and as high as 143. ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

11. (11) Edd Roush. Looks very similar to Hugh Duffy to me. Arguably the best player in the NL during his peak (1917-1920.) A difficult player for me to get a real handle on for some reason.

12. (12) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak and a relatively short career, though I’m willing to make some allowance for era on this. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

13. (13) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career begins to look long enough HoM worthy to me and moves him just ahead of Jennings on my ballot, though Hughie’s peak was perhaps slightly higher.

14. (14) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.81. Relatively short career, but 340 more innings than Ferrell and, IMO, no less peak.

15. (15) George Burns. Slightly less peak than Duffy and slightly less career than Roush, but the same basic 7-10 years peak/prime numbers, with 3 seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) that were of MVP quality. His fielding numbers in 1922 suggest he could have been a quality CF had McGraw played him there. In competition with Groh and Doyle for the title of best former teammate of Frankie Frisch’s not to be in the Hall of Fame.

Nest 5:
16. Jimmy Ryan
17. Tommy Leach
18. Hughie Jennings
19. Wally Schang
20. George Sisler

Required disclosures:
Joe Sewell. Just off the ballot. Though his WARP numbers are very good, I’m not convinced he’s more worthy than Long or Bancroft or Dick Lundy, and I like Beckwith, Moore, and Jennings better among shortstops.

Jake Beckley. Behind Sisler, Chance, and Taylor on my list of 1B.

New Guys
Wes Ferrell. A hard call. Peak is certainly HoM-worthy, but the same is also true for other 2500 inning guys like Shocker and Joss. Outstanding WARP numbers. For now I’ll put him with Cooper and Mays as pitchers I want to find a way to vote for, but haven’t.

Kiki Cuyler. I’d probably put him around 30-35 if my ballot went that far. Similar to G. Burns, I suppose, but with an odd mid-career swoon.

Waite Hoyt. Of the three pitchers with the first or last name Hoyt, two are in the Hall of Fame and the third won a Cy Young. I’d put Waite behind Wilhelm and ahead of Lamarr.
   95. robc Posted: February 06, 2005 at 03:51 PM (#1128006)
1. Lou Gehrig - slacker. In 1935 he only played in 149 games.

2. Frankie Frisch - borderline no brainer. Not close to #1 or #3.

3. Goose Goslin - great career value, very good peak value. Clearly a HoMer, just not yet.

4. Wes Ferrell - Im surprised he is this high on my ballot. Warp really likes him. I completely redid the way I handle pitchers this year and I think he probably benefitted the most, even though its his first year.

5. Pete Browning - The next two guys I had no idea what to do with, so I moved them way up my ballot. It was the very subjective question: Of Browning, Foster, Cross, Beckley, Hooper, Sewell, Maranville, etc. who would I really like to see elected to the HoM? Browning and Foster won.

6. Bill Foster

7. Lave Cross - Im right, your wrong and Im going to hold my breath until you change your ballot. Or not. Ill probably just continue voting him mid-ballot while nearly everyone else ignores a nice 3B/C combo. Everyone has to have their windmill.

8. Jake Beckley - nothing I can say that hasnt been said many times before. Beckley and Jennings are the most system dependent candidates.

9. Harry Hooper - A lot like Beckley.

10. Joe Sewell - Has fallen a bit. Still like him for induction.

11. Rabbit Maranville - Has risen a bit. Sewell has a much, much better peak.

12. Jimmy Ryan - Best of the CF glut.
13. George Van Haltren - 2nd best of the CF glut.
14. Kiki Cuyler - ballot worthy. Hits mid glut.
15. Eppa Rixey - Needs to hang out on the ballot a while and let us work thru the superstarts. Maybe about mid-60s we can see if he belongs.

Beckwith/Griffith - 29th and 17th. Griffith got helped by the changes in my pitching system. Could make ballot again someday. Not likely for Beckwith.
   96. Patrick W Posted: February 06, 2005 at 06:22 PM (#1128236)
Ranking pitchers now is as bad as I can remember it. I don’t want to downgrade long above avg. careers or short dominant stints, which leaves me with about 10-12 pitchers, who all seem to have the ability to rise to the top third in certain categories I rank by. Griffith off this week, Ferrell & Foster on.

1. Lou Gehrig (n/a), NY (A), 1B (’25-’38) (1944) – The only debate is where is he winds up on the all-time list, and how much higher that would be without his illness. Neither issue is of concern to this project.
2. Frankie Frisch (2), N.Y. – St.L. (N), 2B / 3B (’19-’37) (1943) – George Davis was a shoo-in, and Frankie looks very comparable to him As I see it, Frisch comes out ahead - unless there’s a nominal bonus for SS.
--. Mickey Cochrane, Phila. (A), C (’25-’37)(1944) – I flipped the order, but the result is still the same.
3. John Beckwith (4), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but definitely worthy by the numbers.
4. Joe Sewell (5), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys.
5. Goose Goslin (n/a), Wash. (A), LF (‘22-‘37) – I hate to put Goslin over longtime favorites VH & Ryan, but he wins every close call test I measure them by.
6. George Van Haltren (6), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Even un-adjusted, most career WS among 1B-OF. Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.
7. Jimmy Ryan (7), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support. I guess I never will.
--. Dazzy Vance, Bkn (N), SP (’22-’35) –
8. Dick Lundy (8), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – I see a comparison here with Frank Grant. Those who liked Grant should see something worthy in Lundy. As such, my guess is he makes the P-Hall and falls short of the group HOM.
9. Ben Taylor (9), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
10. Eppa Rixey (10), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
11. Jake Beckley (11), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.
12. Harry Hooper (12), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
13. Bill Foster (--), Chic. (--), SP (’23-’37) – Vance isn’t in on my ballot, Coveleski made it in while pinched between Taylor and Beckley, and the prelim numbers I’ve thrown in say Foster is below those two. Even if they are similar choices, right now Foster is third in line.
14. Wes Ferrell (n/a), Clev. (A), SP (’29-’38) – Foster ahead because of ~400 extra IP.
15. Rube Waddell (14), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – Seeing as how he’s not in the P-Hall, a good bet for my personal Most Total Ballot Points since 1909. Hate to see him go, but it won’t be long now.

Clark Griffith – It was a tough call, but at the end of the day I had to bump him off in favor of Gehrig.

Griffith was in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.
   97. PhillyBooster Posted: February 06, 2005 at 07:42 PM (#1128416)

Just want to make sure that you didn't forget Bill Foster. He's not on your ballot, but there's no explanation for him. He;s a fairly popular candidate.

Good question. The mid-length answer is that I was unimpressed with Foster's upon first look, and placed him fairly low in last year's ballot. (18th). Since then, I have reconsidered my assumptions, and am considering how much of an upgrade he will receive based on that. Since I haven't finished reconsidering, I haven't actually changed my ballot to reflect the change (an early "definite 18" trumps a later "possible 10"), so while I have largely discarded the theory that kept him off the ballot -- and therefore can't really give a well-formed explanation of why he is n't a "Top 15" guy, I just haven't spent enough time reconsidering -- except it is likely he will be on my next ballot somewhere or other.
   98. dan b Posted: February 06, 2005 at 09:25 PM (#1128597)
1.Gehrig(1) In his autobiography, Babe Ruth picks Hal Chase over his longtime teammate as the best 1B ever. I disagree.
2.Frisch (2) 4th best 2B to date.
3.Goslin (4) 4th best LF to date.
4.Foster 3rd best NeL pitcher.
5.Jennings (15) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 2nd in 3 and 5-year peaks.
6.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
7.Rixey (9) More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939. 4th in his era in Pennants Added.
8.Duffy (3). PHoM in 1912.
9.Leach (8) 7th in 8-yr peak, 5th in career. PHoM 1926. Joe’s pennants added agrees – he should be in the HoM.
10.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913.
11.W. Cooper (4) Pennants added likes him. PHoM 1942.
12. Mays (5) Pennants added likes him. I like these guys better than Vance or Faber.
13.Bresnahan (33) 19th in WS/162, but 5th in WS/600PA. Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
14.Roush (5) Composite rank better than any single component. PHoM 1942.
15.Lundy Only Biz Mackey fared better in the Cool Papa’s survey.
   99. Jeff M Posted: February 06, 2005 at 10:56 PM (#1128735)
1944 Ballot

1. Gehrig, Lou – A show-off.

2. Frisch, Frankie – Very good hitter and defensive player, by all measures. I probably should dock him a few points for letting all those bad HoFers in, but that’s not part of my analysis.

3. Lundy, Dick – I see that most have Lundy slotted lower than Beckwith. I’ve been a bigger proponent of Beckwith’s than most, but I’ve got Lundy around 380 WS and Beckwith around 350, primarily due to defense (and position). They are both HoMers.

4. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 350 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

5. Foster, Bill – I do not pretend that I have Foster slotted correctly. After reading the HoM posts, I’ve given him a rating halfway between Coveleski and Vance, and in this particular election that puts him here. He is a HoMer.

6. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

7. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

8. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

9. Waddell, Rube – I’ve was holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

10. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor for an outfielder.

11. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

12. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

13. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

14. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good normalized counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

15. Rice, Sam – Rounding out the ballot with a glut outfielder.

Required Disclosures:

Sewell, Joe – He’s #22 in my system, essentially tied with Larry Doyle and Tommy Leach (behind Goose Goslin), and just slightly ahead of Jake Beckley. A very solid player but not spectacular enough to crack the ballot for now.

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #32 in my system, behind Wes Ferrell and ahead of Spotswood Poles. I’ve got to side with the WARP analysis on this one…at 275 IP per year, he’d give you a WARP of about 4.2. I like steady, but I need some brilliance too.

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in grey ink and Keltner tests. He’s #25 in my system, behind Joe Sewell (really Wallace) and ahead of Vic Willis.

Van Haltren, George – Go away, George. Make a few all-star teams. Then we’ll talk about the Hall of Merit.
   100. Esteban Rivera Posted: February 07, 2005 at 03:59 AM (#1129649)
The Iron Horse rides in this year!

1. Lou Gehrig - Gehrig's story touches all the emotions, doesn't it? Chester Copperpot's favorite player.

2. Frankie Frisch - Great player. Bill James describes him as "Alomar with his shoes on fire." Had a really good all-around career at second to be worthy.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Goose Goslin - The definition of what the next tier down from the first is to me. Had a great career in the shadow of some all-time greats.

7. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

8. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

9. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

10. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

11. Bill Foster - This is where a best guess places him. Is considered to be the best left-handed pitcher in the NNL. Chris Cobb's work has me really scratching my head on how to peg him.

12.Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

14. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

15. Roger Bresnahan - Edges out Schang and Shalk. I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had. Is just off the ballot, though.

Joe Sewell - A little more playing career and he would have been on the ballot. With all the new players still remains just off it.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

George Van Haltren - Consistency but not the best at position.

Newbie I would like to mention:

Wes Ferrell - I am really torn on where to put Wes. He could be anywhere from top 5 to outside of the top 50 eligibles. This year, he is just off.
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