I'll submit a ballot some time this week. I'm still working on it.

Weakish newbie crop. Manush around the bottom of the extended ballot, but Lazzeri just above Childs (who himself moves down a little.) Lazzeri was much better than Frisch, but didn’t last as long.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-5) Goose Goslin 2738 hits, 128 OPS. Sisler beats him largely because of peak, Beckley because of fielding and longevity. TB+BB/PA .536, TB+BB/Outs .854, but better hitting era than Sisler.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

8. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

10. (N/A-12) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP, decided I’d been undervaluing him, so moved him onto the ballot.

11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13) Sam Leever. Nobody shares my enthusiasm – pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12 (N/A) Tony Lazzeri Shortish career but a pretty good one, and he just beats Childs all round. TB+BB/PA .521, TB+BB/Outs .816, OPS+121, only downside is only 1840 hits.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

14. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 Downgrade a bit because of short career and Hornsby is a LOT better (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

15. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was.

OFF BALLOT
16. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

17. John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson

18 (N/A) Heinie Manush Shorter but better career than Rice. 2524 hits, TB+BB/PA .495, TB+BB/Outs .745. OPS+121.

19. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

20. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

21. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

22. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays.

23. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

24. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134. His unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

25. Wes Ferrell Hon. Mention really, because of his hitting. Even Mays is only hovering around 15, and Ferrell not as good a pitcher, for not as long.
26. (N/A) Dick Lundy Just a few spots below Sewell, based on his MLEs.
27. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
28. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
29. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
30. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
31. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
32. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.

33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits, OPS+125, shorter career than Ryan and van H. puts him here. TB+BB/PA 502, TB+BB/Outs .798, long way short of Goslin
34. Jack Quinn
35. Deacon McGuire
36. Tony Mullane
37. Bill Foster Covaleski minus, I think – shortish career.
38. Pye Traynor
39. Jim McCormick
40. Dick Redding
41. Joe Judge
42. Edd Roush
43. Spotswood Poles.
44. Larry Doyle
45. Roger Bresnahan.
46. Wayte Hoyt. Better than Pennock, not as good as Quinn, so about here.
47. Harry Hooper.
48. Jules Thomas.
49. Wilbur Cooper
50. Bruce Petway.
51. Jack Clements
52. Bill Monroe
53. Jose Mendez
54. Herb Pennock
55. Chief Bender
56. Ed Konetchy
57. Jesse Tannehill
58. Bobby Veach
59. Lave Cross
60. Tommy Leach. Inferior to Childs, even if he’d played 3B his whole career, which he didn’t. Dropped him 1, as overall, Cross was better, too.
61. Tom York

And I'll be a curmudgeon and offer a mild objection to the lead-in.

"Goslin and Foster try to maintain their momentum and sail into the HOM in a year which does not appear to feature any blockbuster candidates. But Hall of Famers Lazzeri and Manush hope to make the case for this hall, too."

I'm sure the intent isn't to push Foster and Manush on voters, but why even make the point at all?

The middle paragraph was a sample alternative..

My ballot thread lead-in:

"Eppa Rixey and Jake Beckley attempt to overcome various electoral quirks to that have so far conspired to deny them inadmission into the HoM. Goslin and Foster are this year's major co-conspirators."

1945 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I have incorporated WARP and Pennants Added.)

1. Goose Goslin Lasted longer than most of the 20’s-30’s outfielders and had a decent peak. MVP candidate 1925-1926, All-Star candidate 1923-1924, 1927-1936 (14 HOM seasons.)

2. Bill Foster The best left handed pitcher in Negro Leagues history. Generally accepted to be in the all-time Negro Leagues rotation. That’s enough for me.

3. John Beckwith Great hitter who has been tarnished by history, not unlike Dick Allen. PHOM 1942.

4. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

5. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

6. Jimmy Ryan Had a nice peak 1888-1891. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

7. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. Looking at measures other than Win Shares, he barely sneaks by Grimes. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

8. Wes Ferrell Best pitcher peak on the board, may rate higher than Rixey/Grimes in subsequent years. MVP Candidate 1930, 1935-1936. All-Star Candidate 1929, 1931-1934, 1937. (9 HOM seasons)

9. Burleigh Grimes I think he is being overlooked by the electorate, especially given his 1918-1924 peak. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

10. Dobie Moore I realized my Hughie Jennings argument (one or two more great seasons would put him over the top) applies to add Moore to my ballot.

11. Dick Lundy If actually a 122 OPS+ hitter, he deserves to rate higher.

12. Bill Monroe Lack of documentation hurts him.

13. Tommy Leach Consistently at the top of his weaker league. MVP candidate 1908. All-Star candidate 1901-1907, 1909-1910, 1913-1914. (12 HOM seasons)

14. Dick ReddingNegro League pitchers elected or likely to be elected: R. Foster, Williams, Rogan, B. Foster, Paige. Others likely to get some consideration include Redding, Mendez, Ray Brown, Leon Day, and Hilton Smith. So it looks like we’ll elect five, and maybe one or two more. 7-10 Negro League pitchers seems about right to me, especially if we elect 20-30 Negro Leaguers.

15. Ben Taylor I think the deadball Negro League infielders get hurt as much as 1890’s infielders. For all I know, Taylor may have been better than Beckley.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Sewell - Looks like the best of the available major league infielders to me, but is looking less impressive over time. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown, Vance or perhaps even Waddell. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. Pitchers ahead of him include Foster, Rixey, Grimes, Ferrell, Redding, Mendez, Mays, Willis and Cooper. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Heinie Manush – Solid outfielder, but not quite HOM material. MVP candidate 1928, 1933, All-Star candidate 1926-27, 1929-32, 1934, 1937 (10 HOM seasons)

Tony Lazzeri – Closer to the ballot than I originally thought he would be. MVP candidate 1929, All-Star candidate 1926-28, 1930-36 (11 HOM seasons).

Missing from my PHOM:

Terry (will make it some day
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Vance (will make it some day)
Faber (may never make it, even with the peak adjustment)
Thompson (will never make it)

Phillybooster, I'll go with your version :-)).

It would be nice to think that Foster wasn't a slam dunk, I have to say. Probably best to avoid predictions in the intro, unless it's someone like Ruth or Gehrig.

We're 50 or so cantankerously independent voters who can look out for ourselves. I wouldn't worry too much about what a thread intro does or doesn't say. That intro is also factual, based on the vote table from the 1944 election: without huge support for Lazzeri or Manush (not visible on the discussion thread) and without large and widespread voter reevaluation between '44 and '45, Goslin and Foster will be elected.

1945 ballot.
1. Leon Allen Goslin (----, 2) Yeah, I know we're probably too generous to flank outfielders. It is true that he's the best major league hitter on the ballot. Comparable in value to Zack Wheat or Joe Kelley.
2. Joe Sewell (5, 5, 3, 5, 5) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.
3. John Beckwith (5, 7, 5, 7, 6) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit.
4. Larry Doyle (4, 6, 4, 6, 7) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
5. George Van Haltren (2, 3, 1, 3, 3) curbing my enthusiasm for him a little, but defintely ballot-worthy, and will be so for a long time.
6. Eppa Rixey (6, 8, 7, 8, 8) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
7. Wes Ferrell (----, 11) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
8. Willie Foster (---. 9, 9) Chris's translations show him as ballot-worthy but not quite a shoo-in.
9. Jake Beckley (7, 9, 8, 10, 10) Not much peak, long career.
10. Cupid Childs (8, 11, 9, 11, 12) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
11. Hugh Duffy (9, 12, 11, 12, 13) 39th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
12. Edd Roush (10, 13, 11, 13, 14) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
13. George Sisler (11, 14, 12, 14, 15) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
14. Pie Traynor (-, 10, 13, 15, 16) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy.
15. Frank Chance (14, 17, 16, 18, 19) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
16. Rube Waddell (12, 15, 14, 16, 17) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
17. Jose Mendez (13, 16, 15, 17, 18)
18. Roger Bresnahan (15, 18, 17, 19, 20) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
19. Ki Ki Cuyler (----, 21) I'll peg his case to Ryan's.
20. Jimmy Ryan (16, 19, 18, 20, 22) Not beyond reconsideration.
21. Dick Redding (17, 20, 19, 21, 23)
22. Hugh Jennings (19, 21, 20, 22, 24) All he's got is 5 years.
23. Wally Schang (20, 22, 21, 23, 25) A much better hitter than most catchers. Not the hitter Bresnahan is, but closer to being a pure catcher.
24. Gavy Cravath (22, 24, 23, 25, -)
25. Rabbit Maranville (23, 25, 24, --) Hard to ignore a 2500+ game career.

The cluster of players fighting to get back up to the #25 spot include Rice, Leach, Luque, Lindstrom, Poles, Taylor, Willis, Welch, Burns, Griffith, and Hack Wilson.
Griffith languishes down here largely because he's not that high on career IP for his times.

Heinie Manush: Cuyler-lite. In the next group, along with the likes of Babe Herman, Pete Browning, Topsy Hartsel, Ross Youngs, and Harry Hooper.

Tony Lazzeri: in my system, offensively comparable to Johnny Evers. Both of them wind up behind Doyle and Childs. He probably should get a few votes, just not mine.

From now on, I'm not going to post anything anymore for the threads at the top. I'm tired of this petty crap.

BTW, anybody who wants to take over should send an e-mail to Joe. I'm tired of the work and would rather just submit ballots for the future so I can pile on the new moderator about things that don't mean a damn thing.

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Goose Goslin -- a step above Beckley, closer to Wheat and Heilmann, who I also had higher than Beckley.

3. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

4. George Sisler – Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter.

5. Eppa Rixey
6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between these two candidates. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

7. Bill Foster – Consensus has him better than Redding, and Redding is good enough for me (in a vacuum – ie without peer review, I’d probably have Redding ahead of Foster, and Foster as low as twelfth, in Vance’s old spot right behind Waddell).

8. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. Sam Rice – close to Beckley – I’ve dropped him after five years of insisting that he was equal to Beckley and Sisler. I took another look at his OPS+ and some traditional stats and feel comfortable with him here.

11. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). My personal, in/out line is here.

12. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin. I have Ferrell next in line and he may move up – I like hitting pitchers.

13. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

14. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. I don’t see him as a HoMer though. Back on the ballot. No throwing infielders in my top-13, five in my top 18.

15. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.


17. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence. The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS. I’m going with 95% of Cobb’s estimate. I like him better than Monroe and Moore I’m pretty sure he’s not Hornsby.


19. Wes Ferrell


28. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

For what it is worth John, I'm with you. I can't believe people care about such things.

Thanks for all the hard work, John.

Kudos to John Murphy for doing mucho administrative crap for us over the last year. I don't blame him for his rare fit of pique at the (thankfully rare) pettiness of this thread.

On to the ballot:

(1) Bill Foster (3rd)-- I think his Negro League stats make him worthy of induction, but place him higher than those stats indicate b/c/ I think it is fundamentally misguided to suggest that he would have had the exact same usage and durability pattern in the big leagues and then to penalize him for it. Every bit of evidence (statistical and impresionistic) is that he was a great pitcher with a sufficiently long career; I'm not caught up in exactly how long.

(2) Goose Goslin (4th)-- Comfortably meets HoM standards.

(3) Hughie Jennings (5th)-- The more I look, the more convinced I become that his peak was Willie Mays-Stan Musial level-- which he needs to overcome lack of ancillary accomplishments.

(4) Hugh Duffy (6th)-- Absent evidence that Win Shares systematically overrates him, there is no precedent for excluding someone with his peak/prime/career package.

(5) George Van Haltren (7th)-- Discounting 19th-century pitching WS (including his) by 50% will likely have more season-length-adjusted WS than any other non-Homer when this project is done (and his peak and prime are perfectly solid too).

(6) Wes Farrell (11th)-- Every attempt to adjust pitchers' raw stats for important environmental factors (parks, defense, offensive support, league run environment, hitting, era workload, etc.) puts him into the HoM, some put him into the top half of the HoM. Since this accords with contemporary opinion, I'm going to run with it.

(7) Eppa Rixey (10th)-- Very different career than Ferrell, very similar value.

(8) Charley Jones (8th)-- His OPS+ numbers aren't quite as dominant as they look when compared with other contemporary bats.

(9) Cupid Childs (12th)-- If only he had played one or two more seasons, his place would be secured. As is, need to make a big adjustment for roughness of the era to get him in.

(10) Edd Roush (13th)-- A tad overlooked thus far.

(11) Dobie Moore (14th)-- At his peak, better than any other SS save Wagner, Jennings, Vaughn, Lloyd, and A-Rod.

(12) John Beckwith (9th)-- Chris Cobb's translations are being used to trumpet his candidacy and they do show a strong career, but they also show a surprisingly limited peak (best 3 seasons 31, 29, 28; only 4 seasons over 25 WS). Gap between him and candidates like Leach, Williamson, Traynor, Nash, and McGraw not as large as I previously thought.

(13) Burleigh Grimes (15th)-- Rixey-lite.

(14) Joe Sewell (nr/16th)--Welcome back.

(15) Frank Chance (nr/17th)--Ditto.

Next 15 in order: Willis, Beckley, Sisler, Ryan, Bresnahan, Schang, Mendez, Lundy, Doyle, Griffith, Redding, Veach, Leach, Williamson, Cooper.

Required disclosure: You can see that Beckley (17th) and, to a lesser extent, Griffith (25th) are close. They are held back by poor peak and lack of durability when compared with contemporaries, respectively.

So I'm not the sole best friend of Chance, who got no votes in 1944.

We have ALWAYS had a prohibition on predictions of ballot results, because such predictions can produce tactical voting and/or create bandwagon effects. Objecting, as mildly as it is humanly possible to do, to starting the ballot thread with such a prediction is NOT a nitpick -- indeed, from memory, other than in a totally obvious case, this is the first time the ballot thread has begun with such a prediction.

Of course in general this project is enormously enjoyable, and we, particularly the more sabermetrically inept of us, are all in the debt of Joe, John, Chris Cobb and others who do the serious work on it.

We have ALWAYS had a prohibition on predictions of ballot results, because such predictions can produce tactical voting and/or create bandwagon effects.

No, we have a prohibition against posting tabulated vote counts in the middle of an election (which I agree with). What you're suggesting is wrong.

Objecting, as mildly as it is humanly possible to do, to starting the ballot thread with such a prediction is NOT a nitpick -- indeed, from memory, other than in a totally obvious case, this is the first time the ballot thread has begun with such a prediction.

First of all, you're also wrong about the predictions since it was mentioned in the last ballot thread (which I didn't get any grief about, BTW). I've made predictions on quite a few ballots.

Secondly, I assume the electorate as a whole are not a bunch of morons. Unless some "eureka" moment occurs that changes the opinion of a certain player this week, we know damn well who the frontrunners will be.

If it were a close election, I wouldn't use my "crystal ball." Those are the elections that my comments might change an outcome (highly doubtful still, IMO). For those elections, I have stated that I had no clue who would win election.

But since I'm not going to post anything anymore in that section of the thread from now on, you don't have to worry about it anymore.

John, pay no heed to the nattering nabobs of negativity.

My #1 and #2 were elected again. New exhibits for Van Haltren, Leach, Roush, Rixey. This is a backlog year, everyone take two steps forward. The deluge of greats resumes in 1946 with NeLers Stearnes and Suttles, plus Simmons and Averill from white ball. Grove and Hartnett look like the class of 1947.

1)Goose Goslin – One of the top 10 MLB players of the 20th century enshrined by the veterans committee. Top 5: Vaughan, Mize, Baker, Crawford, Brown. Next 5: Walsh, Plank, Goslin, Reese, Herman.

2)George Van Haltren (4,4,1) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 37th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with 400+ stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren
5—416 H. Duffy
4—415 J. Doyle
5—414 T. Brown
6—405 G. Davis
7—401 P. Donovan
8—400 D. Hoy

3)Clark Griffith (5,5,2) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie
5—92.4% R. Donahue
6—90.4% J. McGinnity
7—90.2% C. Fraser
8—89.5% J. Powell
9—89.5% B. Dinneen

4)Bill Foster (6,6,ne) – Holding steady. I’ve seen nothing to indicate he is not worthy of his hall of fame status. Not sure he was any better than Vance or Faber, so he’s here.

5)Tommy Leach (7,7,4) – With 3B lagging in HoMers, it’s good to see him getting more attention. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have also handled CF. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2000+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard
12—2096 G. Davis
13—2087 S. Magee
14—2085 E. Konetchy
15—2032 T. Speaker

6) Jimmy Ryan (8,8,5)— Most extra-base hits 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
5—484 M. Tiernan
6—474 R. Connor
7—467 H. Duffy
8—452 E. McKean

7)Edd Roush (9,9,6) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

8)George Sisler (10,10,7) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2400+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx
6—2495 M. Vernon
7—2467 R. Connor
8—2406 S. McInnis

9)Eppa Rixey (11,11,8) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
3—2096 D. Luque
4—2023 W. Hoyt
5—1975 G. Uhle
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey
4—3.20 P. Alexander
5—3.31 H. Pennock
6—3.33 R. Faber
7—3.34 S. Coveleski

10)Wes Ferrell (12,ne,ne) – Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 60% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean
4—69.6% T. Lyons
5—69.3% R. Lucas
6—65.1% R. Ruffing
7—65.0% C. Hubbell
8—64.0% L. Warneke

11)Roger Bresnahan (13,12,10) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
6—101 D. McGuire
7—100 J. Kling
8—99 D. Farrell

12)Hughie Jennings (14,14,11) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis
5—6.37 H. Long
6—6.18 M. Cross
7—6.10 T. Corcoran
8—6.05 B. Ely

13)Hugh Duffy (15,15,12) – He kinda fell off my radar for awhile, until I realized he shouldn’t be very far behind Ryan. Peak puts him over Hooper, but he didn’t have a long career (12.5 yrs) for a corner OF. A WHOLE lot was context. Hit 82 of his 106 career HRs at home. Players with 1900 or more RBI plus Runs Scored, 1889-99:
1—2585 H. Duffy
2—2348 E. Delahanty
3—2141 G. Van Haltren
4—2135 B. Hamilton
5—2117 J. Beckley
6—2099 H. Long
7—2038 E. McKean
8—1939 G. Davis
9—1901 J. Ryan

14)Wally Schang (--,15,13) – He’s back. Catcher bonus puts him here for now. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

15)Burleigh Grimes (--,--,13) – He’s back. I like guys who play. More a workhorse but less longevity then Rixey. Similar peaks. Most wins 1916-29:
1—246 P. Alexander
2—224 B. Grimes
3—213 S. Coveleski
4—211 W. Johnson
5—210 E. Rixey
6—201 C. Mays
7—197 R. Faber
8—187 U. Shocker
9—187 W. Cooper
10-183 H. Pennock

John Beckwith – The current flavor of the month among the voters. I am not able to reconcile the general disregard of his quality with the translations of his stats being generated here. A small error makes a huge difference. On a ballot as tight as 1942, there is not much difference between an elect-me spot and off-ballot, between 23 points and zero points. Until we have a reliable Negro leagues encyclopedia, we’re likely to be making qualitative mistakes with some of them. Lacking a procedure for periodic recall elections, I will continue to employ a healthy skepticism. In any case, Chris Cobb’s MLEs don’t show him as being anywhere near the Dick Allen class as a player.

Jake Beckley is off as I question the logic of equal positional representation. I see nothing wrong with saying that few of the best players in his day were first basemen, that the talent tended to congregate around shortstop. Being the best of a weak group does not accrue merit to a player, in my analysis. We’re looking for the best ballplayers, regardless of position.

Bob Feller takes over themanager's job at Great lakes naval Base in place of HOMer Mickey Cochrane after the best military season of all-time in 1944. The Military World Series was all navy as an Army team taht was missing Buddy Lewis, Hank Greenberg, and Joe DiMaggio lost 8 of the 11 games played. And finally I can't imagine the Cubs NOT getting back to the World Series after the heart they showed against the Detroit Tigers this year.

1. Hughie Jennings (3, PHOM 1938) - At his best he was better than anyone else on the ballot. Only player left who coudl claim the 'best in baseball' tag for himself. Played in a tough era, both in terms of physical wear and competition.

2. Bill Foster (4, PHOM 1945) - I have become convinced that Foster was a good and Vance and if Vance were still eligible today this is where he would slot.

3. Cupid Childs (6, PHOM 1939) - Vaults over Goslin. Nice peak, best 2B of the 1890's. Long career for a player of both his position and time period.

4. Goose Goslin (5, PHOM 1945) - His uberstat numbers place him firmly at the top of the corner outfield heap both in terms of peak and prime. Not quite as good as Heilmann, however.

5. Wes Ferrell (9) - I have him just below the Faber/Coveleski.Vance/Foster quartet. He has the peak to compete with them but his career rate stats and innings pitched push him slightly below.

5a. Bill Terry
6. Clark Griffith (7) - IN a dead heat with Ferrell. Nice peak per traditional ERA+ and IP. the IP gets docked because of his era but due to his competition ERA+ may underrate him. One of only six eligibles with a DERA under 4.00.

7. Eppa Rixey (8) - Best career pitcher on the ballot. Lots of IP and he threw them at a good rate, making him the GVH of pitchers.

8. Hugh Duffy (10) - We already have tons of 1890's OFers. However there are still some very strong candidates and the best of the bunch is Duffy. He has a strong peak and prime in schedule adjusted WS.

9. John beckwith (15) - Slowly warming up to him. Very similar to guys like Belle and Allen, both in temperment and offensive production. I still have concerns over how long he would have played 3B in the majors. I think he career would have been a near mirror image of Allen's.

10 Dick Redding (11) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era.

10a. Max Carey
11. Rube Waddell (12) - Career path very similar to that of Jose MEndez, but he has a stronger ERA+, 134 -118. I am unconcerned about his UER as his DERA is a fantastic 3.69.

12. George Van Haltren (13) - Best career candidate on the board. Unlike Beckley, Hooper, et al. GVH has a strong prime and a respectable peak.

13. Dobie Moore (14) - The black Jennings.I am not sure how to deal with his military years yet and he didn't play at all after that peak. I refuse to give him credit for jumping out of a whorehouse while being chased by a gun wielding wife.

14. George Sisler (16) - Back on the ballot after a one-year hiatus. Best 1B on the baord with a nice peak. Would be in the HOM already if not for that sinus infection.

15. Roger Bresnahan (18) - This is my 11th ballot. In each of the first ten, Roger was between 16-20. I guess this is his time to shine. Best C on the board.

16-20 Mendez, Browning, Roush, Veach, Lundy
21-25 Monroe, Doyle, Shocker, Wilson, Sewell
26-30 Leach, Cravath, R. Thomas, McGraw, Chance
31-35 Traynor, Joss, Burns, Taylor, Schang
36-40 Ryan, F. Jones, Evers, Cuyler, Grimes
41-45 Konetchy, Cicotte, C. JOnes, Manush, Lazzeri
46-50 Bancroft, Mays, Beckley, Tinker, Schalk

Just missed: Willis, J. Johnson, Seymour, Rommell, Rice, Welch, Bottomley, Fournier, Long, Maranville

Newbies:

44. Heinie Manush - WARP hates him, but WS thinks he is a HOVG type. Below 1944 newbie Kiki Cuyler. I still cant' get it into my head that it isn't Kee-kee but Kye-kye.

45. Toni Lazzeri - Good player. Most similar players on the board are guys like Evers, Tinker, and Long. Not HOM material. I tihnk the HOF got the wrong Yankee 2B. I perfer Gordon, or even Randolph for that matter.

Required Disclosures

25. Joe Sewell - Good player but very similar to guys like Bancroft and Tinker. He was better but I can't serperate them enough to put him on my ballot and have the other two ranked where they are.

48. Jake Beckley - To appease Karl he is back in my top 50 (jk). I moved him up a little as I realized that he was a better player than Sam Rice. However, with 5 newbies looking to make my ballot in 1946, his position in the top 50 is strenuous at best.

UR. Mickey Welch - Yes, he has those 300 victories. Yes, Chris J.'s data shows taht he earned them. But they are still purely a function of the era in which he pitched. I doubt he would even have reached 200 if he had pitched in the 1920's. His whole candidacy rests on those 300 wins.

26. Tommy Leach - Fell a bit after I adjusted for his years in CF. He no longer stands out amongst 3B like he did before when I had him in my top 10.

John,

Please stay on as the thread poster of this site and PLEASE keep making comments. In fact I want you to make bold predictiosn that turn out to be false so we can look back and laugh!

Karl,

I know this isn't the place to do this but are you giving Cicotte credit for the part of his career that he missed? That is ridiculous. He missed that part of his career solely through his own doing. It isn't like external forces put a gun to his head and forced him to throw a World Series.

Damn I think I am developing a nemesis.

Well,
I'm not trying to be a pain in the neck.
There was a (I think productive) discussion of this last week, and I thought it was clear we agreed to avoid even the appearance of endorsing or predicting the election of candidates. Did I misunderstand?

I don't blame Mr. Murphy for being pissed, if it seems like I'm nitpicking. I'd be annoyed, I suspect, if someone complained about some of the charts I run and so forth.
I do very much appreciate Mr. Murphy's work, and our general mutual congeniality over the years led me to believe that posting what I described in the msg as "a mild objection" would not produce a major reaction. Obviously, I miscalculated.

Frankly, I'm done commenting on it. I didn't see it as a major issue, but if it's threatening to become one, I'd rather toss it aside altogether.

As you were, mates...

I love a good baseball nerd fight.

You leave John Murphy alone!

I know this isn't the place to do this but are you giving Cicotte credit for the part of his career that he missed? That is ridiculous. He missed that part of his career solely through his own doing. It isn't like external forces put a gun to his head and forced him to throw a World Series.

jschmeagol, I believe that Karl doesn't condone Cicotte's behavior, but rather thinks that Knuckles (and his fellow Black Sox) were unfairly singled out because a certain Commissioner selectively applied and enforced gambling rules to clean up a corrupt sport.

It would be smilar to Selig arbitrarily throwing out a couple of steroid users this year but leaving the rest of the suspects in the league because of a lack of hard evidence.

1945

1. Goose Goslin (3)--Not the last HOM Goose, but the first. Is he the best?

2. Pete Browning (4)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Hughie Jennings (6)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

5. Cupid Childs (7)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

6. Tommy Leach (8)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. . .Leapfrogs over the pitchers this week for reasons of peak and pennants added.

7. Clark Griffith (10)--About as close to Coveleski as can be.

8. Larry Doyle (12)--Another underrated infielder. . .

9 Joe Sewell (13)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. Well, not so much anymore. . .

10. George Sisler (14)-- Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him.

11. John Beckwith (15)--Bumping him up over Williamson and Bancroft.

12. Ed Williamson (16)--Still no Ezra Sutton.

13. Jose Mendez (19)--Rearranged the pitcher’s this week. Mendaz and Mays are the big beneficiaries, while Foster and especially Redding drop a few spots.

14. Carl Mays (20)--These four pitchers form a very tight group.

15. Bill Foster (9)--Chris Cobb’s numbers, plus my own reevaluation of the relative merits of the various pitchers, cause him to drop back to the pack.

16. Wes Ferrell (21)
17. Dave Bancroft (17)
18. Roger Bresnahan (18)
19. Dick Redding (11)
20. Eppa Rixey (22)
21. Hugh Duffy (23)
22. George Van Haltren (24)
23. Edd Roush (25)
24. Jimmy Ryan (26)
25. Tony Lazzeri (-)

I also vote that people leave John alone. I enjoy reading his predictions at the start of the ballot thread and think he does a great job in general around here.

Ron,

That is all well and good. But it still doesn't change the fact that Cicotte was thrown out of baseball for his actions. It doesnt' clear him. he should recieve no credit for any imaginary year after 1920. He should recieve full credit for the yeras he pitched but not for anything else. That is kinda like saying that a drug dealer who gets caught shouldn't be punished because we don't punish all drug dealers.

And even mor to the point, a 25% boost? While knuckleballers have tended to have late peaks, what Cicotte a traditional Charlie Hough knuckleballer? Didn't he throw a faster version? And 25%? That is an enormous boost for a woulda coulda shoulda that is all of Cicotte's doing.

I would rather give credit to Sisler or Jennings for things they couldn't to Cicotte for things he could.

John,

I've always enjoyed reading your intros - many have been clever and interesting. And I know you spend a lot of time keeping up the plaque room and in many other activities. Your work is greatly appreciated!

1945 ballot.

1. Wally Schang (2) In my system, catchers effectively get something like a 50 percent bonus in terms of conventional career rating systems. With a 117 ERA+ in 1842 games and contributions to many pennant winners, Schang more than meets the standards of Cooperstown. For those who think that I have too many catchers: Bresnahan, Schang, Cochrane, Hartnett, and Dickey make it to my PHoM, while Schalk and Ferrell don't.

2. Goose Goslin (3) All eligibles with more WARP3 than Goslin have been elected. All eligibles with more WS than Goslin have been elected, except for Mullane. With a classic HoMer career shape, I don't see the fatal flaw that will keep Goslin out. A "run of the mill" HoMer, but a HoMer nonetheless.

3. Joe Sewell (4) Position player leaders in Win Shares, 1921-1929: Ruth, Hornsby, Heilmann, Frisch, Sewell, Goslin, Speaker, Rice, Traynor, Cobb.
Certain patterns of greatness are not apparent if one only looks at career totals, career averages, and peak, and not at best performances over decadish timespans (see also Traynor).

4. Sam Rice (6) Long, steady career. Makes the ballot under the philosophy that players who rise above average for long enough can deserve the HoM even if they were never dominant players. Not that much higher than the number 15 player, but comes in #4 by default, and one can do worse that Mr. 2987.

5. Roger Bresnahan (7) Best catcher of the 1900s, but note NL weakness.

6. Jose Mendez (10) Trusting that his dominant Cuban years and his total run average title in his fulltime NeL season indicate greatness. Accepting the risk that comes in rating players based on peak in leagues of uncertain quality.

7. Pie Traynor (11) Position Player Leaders in Win Shares 1923-1933: Ruth, Gehrig, Simmons, Goslin, Hornsby, Frisch, Traynor, P. Waner, Manush, J. Sewell
Not the greatest 3B of all time by a long shot, but seems to fall into a blind spot of orthodox sabermetrics; hope to see some kind of rehabilitation in the future.

8. Eppa Rixey (8) Good enough for a long enough time to make him the next (final?) 1920s "career" pitcher choice. Very telling that he does well in my system even though I am discounting NL performance in this era. Some WWI credit pushes him above Hoyt.

9. Waite Hoyt (9) Lots of innings career in what I see as the better league at the time. Would not have made it, except that he got a career second wind as a reliever. Career ERA+ not spectacular; not sure that he deserves to be on the ballot, but gaining confidence that he is at least borderline-worthy.

10. Harry Hooper (12) Rice's near-twin in a less offense-heavy era.

11. Wes Ferrell (15) Similar to Vance in value, sure, but I see Vance as a bit overrated. Excellent hitter for a pitcher; makes a difference on a tight ballot. I have to take another look at the hitting of Carl Mays and Joe Wood, too, to see if it makes any difference.

12. Heinie Manush (N) Most similar players: George Gore, Joe Kelley, Sherry Magee, Willie Keeler. Don't like the excess of corner outfielders in the HoM, but can't dock Manush for that.

13. Urban Shocker (13) My system likes the players who are consistently good.

14. George "Rube" Waddell (14) Off the charts as a strikeout pitcher for his time. His multiple ERA+ titles in strong leagues convince me of his greatness. Agnostic on whether his unearned runs and W/L record indicate anything more than random bad luck.

15. Ray Schalk (X) Thought he was a goner. Exceptional defense and longevity for position; played in stronger league of time.

Left off:

Beckley, Van Haltren, and Jennings are in my retroactive personal HoM, so I wouldn't mind seeing any of them elected, but I refuse to reverse-timeline.

Griffith is a very good pitcher who has made my ballot before.

Bill Foster should make my ballot in the next few years if not elected by then.

IMHO, John Beckwith has risen above "fair market value". I have Sol White, Ben Taylor, and Dick Lundy rated higher among eligible NEL position players. Fortunately, Simmons, Stearnes, Suttles, Grove, Hartnett, Jud Wilson, Gehringer, Lyons, and Bell are coming along in the nick of time.

Others:

17. Tony Lazzeri: Most similar players: Buddy Myer, Pie Traynor, Hardy Richardson, Jimmy Collins, Cupid Childs, Heinie Groh, Ray Schalk. Borderline middle infielder. Gehringer waits in the wings.

1945 Ballot:

I use WS for position players with a bonus for good fielding (which I think is undervalued in WS) and a combination of WS and WARP for pitchers, along with some info from Chris J’s site. My ballot focuses on how good a player was during his peak/prime.

With one of the weakest classes of newly eligible candidates in many years, not much has changed from my 1944 ballot.

1. Wes Ferrell –
While it’s nice to see him start to get more attention, I still think he’s underappreciated. IMO he was the fourth best pitcher of the 1920s and 30s (behind Grove, Paige, and Hubbell).

2. Hughie Jennings –
As the best player in baseball for 3 years (1896-98), he’s in pretty exalted company. Every other player who’s been on top for that long has been (or will be) considered a “no brainer.”

I’d like to see the HoM honor a few of the sprinters as well as the distance runners.

3. Hugh Duffy –
The only other player on the ballot who can lay claim to have been the best player in baseball for a year or two. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

4. Willie Foster –
Chris Cobb's new numbers knock him down a couple of spots. He had an incredible record in “must win” pennant- or World Series-deciding games.

5. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

6. José de la Caridad Méndez –
I made the case for Méndez in a recent post on his ballot thread.

7. Goose Goslin –
Last week I compared him to Wheat, but I think he was actually better than that. Heilmann is probably a better comp.

8. Buzz Arlett –
Am I still allowed to vote for him? He hit for average, power, drew walks, and had several outstanding seasons as a pitcher. His fielding wasn’t so bad as to negate all of that.

I’ve been gathering some more information on the PCL and over the next couple of weeks hope to be able to post an improved set of MLEs for Arlett, as well as MLEs for the PCL seasons of Averill and a few other players.

9. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

10. Clark Griffith –
Outstanding pitcher from 1895-99; good pitcher, albeit with a lighter load, in 1894, 1900-01, and 1903.

11. Roger Bresnahan –
His peak towers over Schang’s. I still hold out hope that he will eventually be elected.

12. George J. Burns –
Outstanding leadoff hitter; 3 seasons with 30+ WS.

13. Spottswood Poles –
Good hitter and fielder; comparable to Fielder Jones, whom I also like.

14. Urban Shocker –
15. Fielder Jones –
Underappreciated.

New arrivals.

I’m ranking Heinie Manush at # 45. I was a bit surprised to find that Tony Lazzeri didn’t make my top 50.

Top 10 not on my ballot:

John Beckwith –
I now have him placed at # 18. Comparing him with Leach, it’s outstanding glove work versus an outstanding bat, and Leach had the longer and more reliable career.

Eppa Rixey –
Ranked at # 21. During their primes, Grimes was better.

George Van Haltren –
# 28. I like Van Haltren, but he doesn't have the peak needed to boost him higher on my ballot.

Jake Beckley –
Not in my top 50. Undistinguished.

Ron, spot on -- this came up in 1926 and shortly thereafter. According to the Rothstein bio, the 1919 WS wasn't the first thrown -- '14 and '17 appear to have been thrown as well, though oddly, not '18. I'm not making a moral judgement about Cicotte, I am giving him a modest bonus for being what appears to have been the first top knuckleballer, and a little credit for the late career he never had, similar to but less than the 50% we're proposing to give to WWII veterans. Without Landis, I find it very hard to believe he wouldn't have sailed past 300 wins.

1944 Official Ballot:

1) Bill Foster—Moves ahead of Ferrell. Only change on my ballot this week. Best Negro League lefty. May not have been as great as his reputation. Playing for consistently great teams and not having much competition for “best lefty” seem to have boosted his legend somewhat. Another lefthander to take a second look at might be John Donaldson.
2) Wes Ferrell—Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Highest 5-year PRAR (455) and Career WARP3 (81.2) among eligible pitchers.
3) Dick Redding—Not as great as Foster, but pretty darn great.
4) Ben Taylor—I have Ben slotted with Bill Terry in my rankings and Terry’s peak & league strength (in WARP3) help him edge out the Goose, so Taylor squeezes in at #4.
5) Goose Goslin—The latest WARP3 numbers agree with WS that he’s well ahead of the OF glut.
6) John Beckwith—Looks like the best Negro League 3rd baseman, which is HoM-worthy. It will be interesting to see how Jud Wilson compares.
7) Joe Sewell—Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. His peak can’t match up with Jennings’, but the rest of his career is solid and moves him ahead.
8) Rube Waddell—142 ERA+ 3.81 DERA. 209 PRAA/429PRAR/145WS in 5 best seasons. Second only to Ferrell in PRAR in his top 5 seasons.
9) Jose Mendez— Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.
10) Hughie Jennings— Nothing new here. He’s all peak, but it’s hard to resist: 52.7/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons.
11) Dobie Moore—Pretty much pegged to Hughie Jennings from here on out.
12) Eppa Rixey—Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+.
13) Bill Monroe—Best 2B eligible this year.
14) Pete Browning—Ahead of Charley Jones by a little bit.
15) Charley Jones—Credit for blacklisted years nudges him up enough to be right behind the Louisville Slugger.
--------------------------
16) Urban Shocker—The third eligible pitcher with top 5 PRAR > 400.
17) Clark Griffith—Wow. He’s managed to get a lot closer to the ballot than I would have imagined.
18) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS.
19) Fielder Jones—New WARP3 moves him down a few spots.
20) Harry Hooper—Hardly different from Fielder Jones.
21) Ed Cicotte
22) Jack Quinn
23) Kiki Cuyler
24) Dick Lundy—Could certainly make the ballot someday.
25) Vic Willis
26) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty is underrated.
27) George Van Haltren
28) Jimmy Ryan
29) Hugh Duffy
30) Waite Hoyt

Other Top 10 not on my ballot
78) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 31.7 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity.

New Eligibles in Top 100
51) Tony Lazzeri—A few spots ahead of Childs for highest ranked Caucasian 2B now that Frisch is in.
85) Heinie Manush

Yes, I know it's the 1945 election. I really need to start remembering to change that.

1945 ballot:

1 (5-4-3-6) John Beckwith. About where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as a roughly comparable player for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

2 (new-5) Goose Goslin. Lawrence Ritter tells us he was never pinch-hit for until he injured himself in his final MLB at-bat. A remarkable pure hitter.

3 (new-6-2) Bill Foster. The NeL experts place him in the Coveleski/Vance mode. I see him as a Vance-plus and add postseason credit.

4 (1-3-5-4) George Sisler. Could have been a first-line pitcher, posting a 124 ERA+ in 111 career innings. Instead, he combined 2,800+ hits with a .340 career BA.

5 (8-7-7-8) Clark Griffith. Adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record compares favorably to HoM inductee and contemporary Joe McGinnity.

6 (x-6-9-7) Edd Roush. Both his context-adjusted offense (5 top 5's in OPS+) and his defensive skills rank him as the best of the eligible CFs.

7 (x-x-x-10) Eppa Rixey. My study of the long-career pitchers convinced me that I under-estimated him. His peak in the mid-1920s is real.

8 (11-8-8-9) Joe Sewell. A clear notch above the MLB infield crew (Childs, Doyle, Lazzeri, Jennings, Maranville, Traynor) and not far below Frisch.

9 (x-x-x-12) Jose Mendez. The best Cuban pitcher of his era, with a solid mark against MLB competition. Unearthed in my pitching re-appraisal.

10 (x-x-11-13) Hugh Duffy. The HoF did right by admitting outstanding defensive CFs Roush and Duffy and excluding average defensive CFs Ryan and Van Haltren.

11 (new-13-x) Dick Lundy. Cobb's estimated 122 OPS+ seems too high, but a 112 OPS+ and his fine defense place him in Sewell's class.

12 (new-14) Wes Ferrell. Could be higher, but his ERA+ and (BB+H)/9 are not any better than Bridges or Warneke. A unique talent who didn't last long.

13 (x-10-14-x) Ned Williamson. His 113 OPS+ and outstanding defense compare well to Ezra Sutton (who had a 119 OPS+ and good defense, against lesser opponents)

-------- PHoM line --------

14 (10-11-12-15) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another peakless/long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines falls into the Hall of Very Good and won't be elected; Beckley, then, is a borderline case.

15 (9-12-15-x) Dick Redding. The fastballer sneaks onto my last ballot spot. He challenged Joe Williams as the best NeL pitcher for 2-3 years.

Tommy Leach (5-9-10-11) is #16. I had given him too much 3B bonus.

17-20: Bresnahan, D. Moore, Grimes, Jennings.

John,
Thank you for all the work you have done. It has been greatly appreciated. I enjoyed your intros. They were not "Repoz-ian," but very enjoyable.
K

Re: Welch

Similar Pitchers
Most similar pitchers (from baseball-ref)
1. Radbourn
2. Mullane
3. Keefe
4. Clarkson
5. Nichols
6. Seaver
7. Grimes
8. Plank

Yep, no one of any consequence there. That is 6 HoMers out of 8. Notice he is not similar to McCormick or Bobby Mathews or Jim Whitney - other pitchers with long careers of the same time period.
Notice also that we have easily inducted 4 of the 5 most similar. 3 of the 4 most similar were direct contemporaries and I don't recall any down-grading their win totals.

Welch continued:

Against the Best
Also, Welch regularly defeated all the HoM pitchers against whom he pitched:

HoMers Against Other HoMers and Welch: 
Radbourn         Clarkson        Keefe
Clarkson  9-8    Radbourn  8-9   Clarkson  9-10
Galvin   16-14   Galvin    7-5   Radbourn 14-10
Keefe    10-14   Keefe    10-9   Galvin    8-6
Ward      3-1    Rusie     3-4   Ward      3-7
Rusie     2-0    Caruthers 2-1   Rusie     5-2
Caruthers 0-1    Young     1-1   Young     0-2
Young     1-0    Nichols   0-1   Nichols   3-3
Nichols   0-1
total    41-39   total    31-30  total    42-40

Welch    10-17   Welch     7-13

Welch            Galvin  
Galvin   26-11   Ward      8-12
Radbourn 17-10   Radbourn 14-16
Ward      4-7    Keefe     6-10
Clarkson 13-7    Clarkson  5-7
Rusie     2-0    Caruthers 4-4
Nichols   0-1    Rusie     4-2
Caruthers 0-2    Young     1-1
total    62-38   total:   42-52
                 Welch    11-26 *
*Sometimes I only get 9 wins for Pud

That's 62-38 against HoMers.
Welch 62-38
Radbourn 41-39
Keefe 42-40
Clarkson 31-30
Galvin 42-52
Caruthers 8-6
He faced HoM pitchers regularly and he BEAT them.

Welch continued

Defensive Support
Also, looking at his ERA+, which is still 113. It is a direct result of having some of the lowest defensive support of any successful pitcher of the pre-60 foot distance.
Clarkson pitched for 7 years with 8 teams that reached the defensive win shares "cap"
Keefe 4 times (3 when he was not on the same team as Welch)
Radbourn 5 times
Caruthers 5 times
Welch: once

Or, using Chris J.'s defensive support tool you find that Caruthers, Clarkson, Radbourn, and Keefe are all in the top 12 for career defensive support. Welch is 84th out of 200+ pitchers.

ERA+
Lastly, the difference between a 113 ERA+ (2.71 career era in a league context of 3.06) and that of Radbourn, Keefe, and Clarkson is as follows:

Radbourn: ERA+ 120 based on career era of 2.67 in a league context of 3.21. Adjusting Welch's career era to Radbourn's context gives Welch a 2.84. What is the difference between a 2.84 and a 2.67 era?
Over 450 innings, it is 8.5 earned runs. Radbourn had some of the best defensive support in the league 5 times, Welch once.
Is 8.5 runs over 450 innings a reason to keep a pitcher out of the HoM?
Adjusting to a more current 270 innings pitched workload brings the difference to 5 runs per 270 innings pitched. Is 5 runs a year a reason to keep a pitcher of the HoM?

Keefe: ERA+ of 125 based on a career era of 2.62 in a league context of 3.28. Adjusting Welch’s career era to Keefe’s context would give Welch an ERA of 2.90.
Over 450 innings that is a difference of 14 earned runs. Keefe had some of the best defensive support 4 times, including his 2 biggest years.
Is 14 runs with that difference in support a reason to keep a pitcher out of the HoM?
Adjusting to a more current 270 innings pitched workload brings the difference to 8 runs per 270 innings pitched. Is 8 runs a year a reason to keep a pitcher of the HoM?

Clarkson: ERA+ 134 based on a career era of 2.81 in a league context of 3.75? Adjusting Welch’s career era to Clarkson’s context would give him an ERA of 3.32.
Over 450 innings that is a difference of 25.5 earned runs. The defense behind him max’d out their defensive win shares 7 out of 8 years. Welch, once.
Adjusting to a more current 270 innings pitched workload brings the difference to 15 runs.
That is one run over 2 complete games. Defense is not all of that difference, but it is a good part of it.

Wow,
I feel like the guy who shows up at the Halloween party dressed as Cleopatra - only it's not a costume party.

Murphy for President!
His first act: Menckel tied to a wooden stake and set aflame!

PHoM this year: Bill Foster and Bullet Joe Rogan


1. Goose Goslin (3,x,x) PHoM 1944

With 1 and 2 elected last year, the next three just slot up two spots.

2. Bill Foster (4,5,x) PHoM 1945

3. George Van Haltren (5,3,2) PHoM 1912

4. Eppa Rixey (7,6,1) PHoM 1939
5. Jake Beckley (6,4,4) PHoM 1913

Minor shuffle here. I'm pretty steady on Beckley but Rixey is sliding around on me.

6. Mickey Welch (8,7,5) PHoM 1929

7. Tommy Leach (9,8,3) PHoM 1921

8. Edd Roush (10,10,7)PHoM 1942

These three slot into the same spots.

9. Hugh Duffy (12,13,8) PHoM 1930

10. Jimmy Ryan (14,14,10) PHoM 1914

I was uncomfortable having Ryan so close to falling off.

11. George Sisler (11,12,6) PHoM 1940

I thought he was a sure thing a while back. Apparently not.

12. Sam Rice (13,11,9) PHoM 1940

Underappreciated.

13. Dobie Moore (15,x,13) PHoM 1932

14. Dick Lundy (x,15,x)

15. Harry Hooper (x,x,14) PHoM 1931

The last three are on and off.

16-20. Griffith, Powell, Monroe, Sewell, Childs
21-25. Grimes, Doyle, Mullane, Streeter, Cuyler
26-30. White, Willis, Burns, Poles, Gleason

For those wondering about all the PHoM listings, here are the guys who are in the HoM but not in the PHoM (one less after Rogan this year, and yes some will give me grief about catchers...). The number in brackets is where they appeared on my PHoM ballot this year (I keep 50 on th eballot from year to year).


Charlie Bennett (37), Mickey Cochrane (7), Jimmy Collins (6), Stan Coveleski (off), Buck Ewing (39), Heinie Groh (11), Joe McGinnity (17), Hardy Richardson (29), Harry Stovey (18), Bill Terry (38), Sam Thompson (30), Dazzy Vance (off), Ed Walsh (off), George Wright (off)

1945 Ballot

1. Goose Goslin (new, PHoM 1945). I was surprised that he didn't look better. I always thought it was a travesty that he waited to go in the HoF via the back door in 1968, paired with Kiki Cuyler. But on close examination he is a clear Definition B-/C+ choice. This year, however, that gets him here.

2. Hughie Jennings (4 in 1943-2-3, PHoM 1927). Again the highest peak of any eligible position player.

3. George Sisler (5-3-4, PHoM 1938). Basically Joe Jackson plus some hangin' around time.

4. Dobie Moore (6-5-9, PHoM 1942). The black Hughie Jennings. At least 3 or as many as 7 seasons with the Wreckers plus 6.5 years in the Negro Leagues at a level that almost no other NeLer attained, considering his defensive position.

5. Rube Waddell (7-4-5, PHoM 1932). Prime ERA+ 152, highest of all eligibles. And I do think we are hard on Definition B pitchers compared to, say, corner OF.

6. Tommy Bond (9-11-x, PHoM 1929). Tried to banish him from my ballot since he isn't going anywhere, but this is where he really belongs.

7. Bill Foster (8-x, PHoM 1945). Not as good as his reputation but still a HoMer.

8. Larry Doyle (12-15-x). Not sure he's better than Childs or Monroe, not sure he's not.

9. Ed Williamson (11-6-8, PHoM 1924). Forget the 27 HR, he did it all.

10. Pie Traynor (14-7-10). Belongs somewhere between his former rep. as the best 3B ever and his current rep. as nobody.

11. Edd Roush (x-x-x). I go back and forth on Edd. WS overrates CF, so I discount the lot of them. But Edd is the best of the lot, and clearly one or more of them oughta be a candidate.

12. Charley Jones (x-12-11, PHoM 1921). See Bond, McCormick.

13. Addie Joss (15-9-13). Prime ERA+ 148.

14. Eddie Cicotte (x-x-x). Makes my ballot for the first time. 12 year prime at 129 ERA+ clearly better than the other long primes (Rixey, Grimes) and both longer and better ERA+ than Ferrell's or Welch's prime) and more additional value outside prime than Ferrell. This is with NO extra credit for 1921.

15. John Beckwith (10-13-14). Could mash the ball, not clear what other strengths he brought to the table.

Dropped out: Joe Sewell (13-8-12). 8 years at SS clearly below the Dobie Moore line.

16-20. Lundy, Sewell, Griffith, Browning, McCormick
21-25. Childs, Monroe, Redding, Welch, H. Wilson

By 1965 the in/out line might be way down here, give or take 3-5 slots. IOW even Rixey and Cuyler (below) don't strike me as grossly unqualified.

26-30. Ferrell, Rixey, Cuyler, Mays, Mendez
31-35. Dunlap, Sol White, Mullane, Willis, Grimes

Adjusting to a more current 270 innings pitched workload brings the difference to 5 runs per 270 innings pitched. Is 5 runs a year a reason to keep a pitcher of the HoM?

While I appreciate much of Kelly's defense of Welch, this kind of argument -- "is 5 runs a year a reason to keep a pitcher out of the HoM" -- is slippery. How much difference does 5 runs a year make? The implied answer is, "Surely not any significant difference.

Let's shift this to some other units.

5 runs saved in 270 innings in a 4.5 r/g environment is worth .57 wins in 30 games.

That's 1.71 win shares.

In a 4000-inning career, being 1.71 ws better over 270 innings is worth 25 win shares.

Depending on where the pitchers stand in relation to other players a difference in career win shares of 25 is certainly large enough for one the player with more win shares to be in and the player with fewer win shares to be out.

This is not to argue that the line necessarily should fall between Radbourn and Welch, or that ERA+ is necessarily the best measure to use in establishing the value of 1880s pitchers.

It is to argue that adding or subtracting 5 runs per 270 innings over the course of a pitcher's entire career is adding or subtracting a significant amount of value.

Welch is 84th out of 200+ 192 pitchers.

April 18, 1945--One-armed Pete Gray makes his major league debut with the St. Louis Browns.
April 24, 1945--Albert B. "Happy" Chandler becomes baseball's second Commissioner.
July 10 & 11, 1945--In lieu of an All-Star Game, several interleague series are played, including White Sox vs. Cubs, Yankees vs. Giants, Braves vs. Red Sox, and the Philadelphia Blue Jays vs. the A's.
August 28, 1945--Branch Rickey and Clyde Sukeforth meet with Jackie Robinson.

1945 Ballot
PHoM inductees: Mickey Cochrane & John Beckwith

1. Big Bill "Willie" Foster (2,2) No Smokey Joe, perhaps, but not far behind. (1943)

2. Jake Beckley (6,3,5,4,4,3,3,4,8,5,4,2,2,2,3,3,1,4,4) (1927)
3. Mickey Welch (1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,7,6,5,3,1,1,2,4,2,5,5) (1926) Time for some more new candidates with this duo sneaking back up to the top of my ballot.

4. Eppa Rixey (6,7,7,3,7,6) Eppa probably has the best chance of any of the backloggers, but may still have a few more years to go. (1939)
5. Burleigh Grimes (5,6,4,8,7) Is Ol' Stubblebeard's durability hurting him with the electorate? I don't see that his extra years with "only" good performance lower his value. (1940)
6. John Beckwith (21,12,11) Here's to two more negro leaguers getting inducted. (1945)

7. Tommy Leach (9,7,5,7,8,8,6,10,9) When Beckley is finally inducted, Leach will be here to take his place on my ballot.(1942)
8. Dick Lundy (11,10) The next best negro leaguer, IMO.
9. Carl Mays (9,10,9,7,5,6,9,8,13,12) Best submariner on the ballot. (1939)
10. Dick Redding (13,11,15,15,10,9,14,13)
11. Jose Mendez Cannonball Dick and Jose have cases equally as strong as Dazzy and Ferrell, I believe. (4,8,13,13,11,10,8,14,14,11,10,15,14) (1932)

12. Ben Taylor (11,8,8,6,4,3,4,5,5,9,8) I'm backing off on him a bit, with Lundy and Beckwith on the ballot. (1938)
13. Jim McCormick (15,nr,13,15,nr,15,12,11,9,8,9,12,11,16,15) I played a Statis Pro game yesterday between the 1884 Outlaw Reds and the 1965 Twins. McCormick led Cincinnati to victory, with Jack Glasscock coming through with a key RBI single.
14. Rabbit Maranville (10,11,13,12,17,16) Ozzie Smith version 0.9.
15. Edd Roush (8,6,11,13,14,13,18,17) His superior defense gives him the edge over Goslin on my ballot.

Obligatoires:
16. Goose Goslin--not quite there.
27. Wes Ferrell--needs a few more good seasons.
36. George Van Haltren--not enough career breadth to overcome its length.
47. Clark Griffith--Like the three names above, I understand his appeall. But he doesn't fit my criteria.
Manush is far from my ballot. And Lazzeri isn't in the top 100.

I have also enjoyed John Murphy's lead-ins. I was never a big Dickey Pearce fan, but that's no reflection on him.

1945 Ballot
1) Leon Allen Goslin – “Goose”
Third last year, first now. Total career numbers are just too good. And my salute to the voter who last year wrote “Honk!” next to his vote. That made me smile.
2) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
He seems like he should be all peak, but he’s still a right-decent ballplayer when you look at his non-prime years. I like the balance.
3) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I seem to be Burleigh’s best friend, so I went back and looked at the numbers again. And I’m still his best friend. Durable career, a ton of black and gray ink…I’m hard-pressed to see the problem.
4) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
5) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too.
6) Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Can somebody confirm the pronunciation of his name? Is it SOO-ull or SEE-well?
7) Hugh Duffy
It’s hard to believe that he once ranked as high as 5th in the voting. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.
8) William Hendrick Foster – “Willie”
A difficult candidate to place. I eventually settled here. By all accounts a better Negro League candidate than Redding. Some say he’s similar to Vance – and this is about where I had Vance.
9) Edd J Roush
Nice all-around numbers, and several MVP-type seasons. Looking at outfielders, I decided I wasn’t giving Edd enough credit. So he gets a small bump.
10) Carl William Mays
After Burleigh and Bill, there’s a real mollybang of great-but-not-outstanding pitchers. Carl is still benefiting by favorable analyses from James Vail and Bill James, as well as an enviable peak. Not a lot of love for Carl, though. And I gather that’s never been Carl’s strong suit.
11) John Beckwith
I spent a lot of time looking over the Cobb projections and the attendant discussion. I have a sneaking suspicion that what I don’t like about Albert Belle is what I don’t like about Beckwith. But right now, the numbers justify inclusion on my ballot, so I’m moving him up.
12) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Whenever he looks like he’s about to fall off my ballot, I pull him back up. Which probably means I’m underrating him. I think I’m hung up on the winning percentage. But I also stump for Blyleven, so I’m not sure what my problem is.
13) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
Both Leach and Larry Doyle dropped in my revamp. I’m giving Tommy the edge on a greater career.
14) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
Bouncing back, for now. My numbers like him better than Childs. I thought that was due to career length, but they have a similar peak, and Doyle has a slightly higher prime. So I’ll stick with Larry.
15) Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He does well in James Vail’s review, as well. I’m still borderline on him, but he’ll probably get pushed out by the competition in coming years.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Clark Calvin Griffith
What can I say: I’ve got six pitchers ahead of him. His is an interesting mix, but the overall picture is not outstanding one way or the other. I do, however, like him way better than...
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
I’ll admit it, I’m confused. What has Ferrell got that Carl Mays doesn’t? Granted, Mays has a foul temper and an accidental homicide on his c.v. But I feel like Ferrell is gaining an unfair advantage from an abbreviated career. Consider: Mays leads Ferrell on career Win Shares, prime WS, Bill James ranking, gray ink, HOF Standards and HOF Monitor. Ferrell has a slight edge in black ink and WARP3. Oh, and Mays’ best comp is Stan Coveleski, Ferrell’s is Jack Stivetts. I just can’t pull the trigger on this guy.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangable with Jimmy Ryan. He’s good, but it’s not enough.

Can somebody confirm the pronunciation of his name? Is it SOO-ull or SEE-well?
--
I don't know how Joe pronounced his name, but my in-laws live in Sewell, N.J., and they say SOO-uhl (of course, they also drink "wutr"). I believe it's an American Indian tribe.

Major re-evaluation.

1) Goslin: Long, productive corner outfield career. Similar to Simmons but without the time in CF.

2) Sisler: Still seems a bit underrated here. One hell of hitter, even after his injury. Still stumpin' for Gorgeous George.

3) Waddell: Still love the K's and the ERA+. Dominating pitcher with a dimestore discount head. He'll never make it, but I'll keep voting for him anyway.

4) Duffy: What a peak. More longevity than Hack Wilson.

5) Welch: Reevaluated him. We need more pitchers to go in. 300 wins is nothing to sneeze at. Neither is 500 innings pitched in one season. Seems to be almost on the level of his contemporaries who have made it.

6) Beckley: I have trouble placing Beckley. Never seemed to be in the upper-elite when he played, but he played for so long at a high enough level where I feel he deserves consideration.

7) Sewell: Great contact hitter. Like Beckley, he never seemed to be among the ultra-elite. However, unlike Beckly, he didn't stick around for almost 20 years BUT he did play a superb shortstop.

8) Bill Foster: NLers are difficult to place. Right in the middle seems about right to me for Foster.

9) Van Haltren: Duffy without the monster peak.

10) Sam Rice: Similar to Beckley, but played a corner outfield slot instead of first base back when first base was a lot tougher than it is now.

11) Cuyler: Similar to Duffy but without the enormous peak year. Similar to Rice and GVH. Have a hard time sorting out the three of them. Whenever I hear his name I immediately get "C.C. Rider" stuck in my head. So that knocks him down to 11 because I hate that song.

12) Beckwith: Seems to have a lot of support among the people who do research into the Nlers. Like some, I'm not so sure he would have put up those kind of estimated numbers in the bigs.

13) Rixey: Seems like a good place to put him. Reevaluating pitchers and trying to put more of them on my ballot. Tremendous innings pitched.

14) Grimes: Points for innings pitched. Points off for too many bad years thrown in with the good ones.

15) Hack Wilson: Love the peak years and always have a soft spot for players who drank themselves out of the league.

Manush and Lazzeri had nice careers, but aren’t particularly close. This year everyone gets bumped up two spots.

1)Goslin--comfortably over the line.
2)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
3)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. Stands out from the extreme lack of catching candidates recently.
4)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
5)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. I might regret this, but he made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
6)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
7)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
8)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
9)Bill Foster--consensus seems to have him around Coveleski/Faber/Rixey, I had those guys around here, so he goes here too. Was #3 on 1943 prelim.
10)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
11)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
12)Cuyler--I think he’ll be below the in/out line.
13)Bancroft--Better than I thought.
14)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so he’s not quite as impressive as I thought at first glance.
15)Griffith—Comp is Marichal, plus he could hit.


Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Ballot is pretty steady, I think, nowdays. Foster moves down a touch from last week, and the mid-ballot pitcher glut shakes up in general.

PHOM was redone this week; didn't like my old one at all. Now, the majority of me ballot has been PHOM'd. :) New are Wes Ferrell and Goose Goslin.

I'd also like to echo others thoughts: Thanks to John for all his work. As he is the one doing all the work, as far as I'm concerned he can do what he wants with the top of the threads. :) I do think there's possibly a little risk of newcomers being influenced by it, but the 50ish longtimers we have aren't going to be wavered by a few predictions and comments from John. Else Childs and York would have long since been in the HOM. ;) I'd also like to thank John (or whoever made the change) for the quick fix of the 1944 results link. Was perfect by the morning after I made the request.

1. Wes Ferrell (1945) (3) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot.

Much of the talk about Ferrell (his usage, whether he did or did not face advanced competition) has been a distraction from his amazing qualifications. Those being that his career WARP3 is the highest pitching total on the ballot. And he's not even a career candidate. WARP1 also puts him as the top guy on the ballot.

2. Hughie Jennings (1910) (5) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

3. José Méndez (1932) (6) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

4. Joe Sewell (1939) (7) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit.

5. Goose Goslin (1945) (8) - Great career numbers, but his peak feels light to me. I think he's more Zack Wheat than Harry Heilman (who was just short of no-brainer status). That said, Wheat is in my PHOM, and I tend to underrate these guys who had long careers at a high level that never quite reached superstar status.

6. John Beckwith (1940) (10) - I'm sold enough to move him up above Moore. Longer prime, peak not as great, but very good. I suspect he'd have ended up in a less stressful (and less WS-bountiful) position in the majors. Moves up not due to my liking him more, but due to my downgrading of some pitchers, who I'm having some trouble sorting out.

7. Rube Waddell (1926) (9) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me. Moves down a touch, as he didn't have quite as many big years as I'd like.

8. Willie Foster (4) - Moves down a bunch. Honestly, difficult to judge for me, because our best estimates are Win Shares and I'm a WARP guy. With that said, his peak doesn't seem quite high enough to me to justify a higher ranking, given his relatively brief career. Adjusting everything, he is nearly a dead ringer for Redding.

9. Clark Griffith (1927) (11) - Another big winners in WARP3 changes, as well as the look back at the first 3 decades of the majors. We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at. As others have pointed out, we don't need more 1890s OF; need more infielders and pitchers.

10. Dick Redding (12) - Of similar value to Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. I'm really stuck with these 4 pitchers. I think they all belong somewhere between 6 and 11 on this ballot, but ranking them is more or less choosing out of a hat.

11. Dobie Moore (13) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

12. Wally Schang (14) - I took another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog.

13. Lave Cross (1928) (15) - A career/prime guy who does well. Having played catcher helps him a lot, as well. For those looking for 3B/C, this is an overlooked guy.

14. Fred Dunlap (1929) (--) - For 7 consecutive years, one of the top best players in baseball. Is there anyone else fitting that description who we haven't inducted? Excellent defense, very good offense. This is discounting his UA year waaaay down.

15. Bill Monroe (1930) (--) - Simply a great 2B from the early days of the Negro Leagues. All evidence I have seen points strongly toward him being a very, very good player. I have him ranked slightly ahead of Frank Grant, who we've inducted.

16-20: F. Jones, Veach, Williamson, Bond, Browning
21-25: Shocker, Buffinton, Sisler, Childs, Taylor
26-30: Maranville, Grimes, Luque, Cuyler, Lundy


Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?


Van Haltren - Way down on my ballot. I'd much prefer Jimmy Ryan, who also is not on my ballot. Also would prefer Poles, Duffy, Griffin. And of course Fielder Jones and Bobby Veach, who I think were the best of all these guys who have been around forever. Plus Cuyler now. As has been pointed out, while we need 1890s players, we don't need 1890s OFs.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. I've softened a bit on the old goat. He's in my top 50!

Just a quick comment that I join the masses in effusively thanking John Murphy for all he does for the HOM! And I too like his ballot intros.

Maybe it is just me but I really have a problem with giving Cicotte extra credit for the years in which he was rightfully kicked out of baseball. Sure, there were those that got away, but Cicotte didn't. We are supposed to dwell on what actually happened as much as possible.

War Credit, by the way, is completely different than getting tossed out of the game for throwing a World Series. I would really hope you can differentiate between the two.

John, I hope you're not embarassed by all the praise you're getting. Truth is, our "thank yous" have been long overdue. You do great work on this site. I am very grateful.

While we're offering gratitude, Joe Dimino deserves a big thank you as well, for envisioning and organizing the HoM. The Hall has taken up considerable amounts of my time in reading and research, and I've loved every minute of it. It's been a real privilege to be part of this project.

Thank you, Joe, for getting this started. Thank you, John, for keeping it running so smoothly.

Chris J.

Sorry about that. It was late and I wanted to get the posts finished. I still should have had the total right.

K

I do differentiate between war credit and Cicotte; I will be giving 50% credit for war years, but give only 25% credit for the rest of Cicotte's career. 50% war credit is why I also now have Rixey quite high, in spite of his low ERA+ and W/L.

I regard Cicotte as very unlucky and more sinned against than sinning; if the Red Sox had had the sense of a gerbil in 1912, he wouldn't have been traded and the Sox would have won at least 1 more AL pennant. From all the evidence. Cicotte was NOT some Hal Chase-type unquely corrupt player, and should not be treated as such. I too feel strongly about this.

John, I echo the gratitude of others to you and Joe, and my personal appreciation of your sense of humor and general good nature. You will, won't you put Cicotte in the HOM with a Red Sox cap when he's elected :-))

Maybe it is just me but I really have a problem with giving Cicotte extra credit for the years in which he was rightfully kicked out of baseball.

jschmeagol, I have to support Karl's opinion on this one, although I personally don't give credit to Cicotte.

You have to carefully look at the other side. Some people don't agree that Cicotte was rightfully kicked out of baseball. Some feel he should merely have been suspended or fined.

I realize that you feel he was rightfully kicked out, and I don't have any problem with that opinion.

I am probably somewhere in between. Cheating was rampant in aughts and teens baseball. There is some evidence that players and managers like McGraw, Cobb, and Speaker probably participated in gambling and/or throwing games. Players were overworked and underpaid, and nothing was provided for them when they were finished. While I don't condone their behavior, I sympathize with them, as does Karl.

FWIW, even Joe Dimino once pushed Benny Kauff for the HOM, even though Benny was "rightfully kicked out of baseball." Joe, like me, believes that Landis went a bit overboard on that case as well.

Karl,

I do hope that you aren't giving him credit because you don't think he should have been traded after 1912.

And what do you mean by 25%? Is this 25% extra tacked onto his career? 25% for each season you are giving him credit for having played? Your comments seem to indicate that you are giving him credit for some sort of late peak which seems extravagant. Sure a lot of knuckleballers were good late into their careers, but there are some that weren't. I cant' give him extra peak credit (actually I can't give him any credit but...) when he was kicked out of baseball.

1945 Ballot

I’m considering a reconsideration of short-schedule players like Williamson once I see how Chris Cobb’s regression techniques evolve. This should help me find a better sense of Williamson in particular, but also of Browning, Jones, and Dunlap. I just want to be sure that they are properly enshrined in my pHOVG.

Also, I’m truly looking forward to learning more about Turkey Stearnes and Mule Suttles for the 1946 election.

1. GVH: Still the best non-NB career value on the board, with a peak that doesn’t embarrass anyone.

2. Hugh Duffy: Best peak on the board, with a career that doesn’t embarrass anyone.

3. Goose Goslin (Honk!): These three are all wicked close. Van Haltren's got the career, Duffy's got the peak, Goslin has the middle ground. Duffy's peak is more impressive than Goslin's career, and I've long prefered GVH to Duffy, so there's how I arrived at my ranking of them.

4. Bill Foster: I have him in the Stazzy Vanleski slot (or is it Dan Covance?). Roughly 3000 innings at 120 ERA+ or better. Ferrell’s innings fall a little short of to reach this area of my ballot, but I suspect the likes of Lemon and Newhouser will get here eventually.

5. Eppa Rixey: The GVH of pitchers, though with a little less career and peak.

6. John Beckwith: I’m guessing he finally gets his due somewhere in the vicinity of 1975. Big bat, athletic enough to handle short and third. I’m a believer. Last week in my preliminary ballot, I talked a bit about positional balance on my ballot. Part of me wonders if I should have Beckwith near Duffy. They are very similar types of candidates with respect to their positions. I don’t give much of any bonus to infielders, though when presented with choices between infielders and outfielders of obvious HOM meritude, I’ve gone to either side. For instance, I’ve had Frisch over Goslin, GVH, and Duffy the last two years, while in 1938 I had GVH and Groh 1 and 2 (though as candidates, they had less similarity than some of the three outfielders’ career patterns did to Frisch). I don’t know what any of this means other than that The ballot is bunched tightly, and I’m always in the act of reconsidering how I approach throwing infielders.

7. George Burns: Nifty peak, but not quite enough career to advance further up my ballot. His career looks more like Beckwith’s than, say, even Duffy’s does. In this case JB gets the nod.

8. Jose Mendez: Last week: Right where he’s always been. This week: bumped down a couple pegs after seeing that CC’s caveats.

9. Spots Poles: Great legs game (glove and baserunning), and he could hit some too. More similar to Max Carey than not, but I’ve been assuming all along that he had a better peak. Lately I’m down on Poles, and so I’d surmise I’m probably wrong about him.

10. Edd Roush: He’s right where he belongs. I think. You know, he’s a threat to someday enter the HOM since he’s had consistent support at the bottom half of a lot of people’s ballots, but I don’t see his time as coming until the mid 90s. Of course, that’s two real-time years down the road, and I could be run over by a pack of rampaging yaks, so I’m not going to worry for now about whether he’ll really, truly deserve it or whether he and Jimmy Wynn will have a timeline steel-cage match.

11. Tommy Leach: If only he’d played all his games at third, he’d probably rank a few places higher on my ballot. Of course, if he’d always been a 3B, he wouldn’t be on my ballot because he’d be a HOMer.

12, Hugh Jennings: Still clinging to life at the bottom of the ballot.

13. Dobie Moore: Lovvve that peak, his second year among my tallies. It’ll be interesting to see if any early Wreckers boxes/recaps show him with playing time and success. That could change my thinking on him considerably.

14. Wes Ferrell: We’ve been comparing him quite a bit to other pitchers, but I wonder if Dobie Moore and Hughie Jennings are an ever better point of comparison. I’m using the 9.5-seasons version of Moore myself, and we all know that Hughie didn’t have much to give outside of his peak. I suppose that since I’ve got Dobie and Hughie down here at the straggle-end of my ballot, then it’s apropos to have Ferrell down here as well.

15. Cupid Childs: He’s back and badder than ever. I do love his peak as well. A little deduction for his 1890 season slots him lower than the three short-career guys ahead of him.


SNAPSHOTS OF COUSINS FROM THE HOM FAMILY PHOTO ALBUM

Joe Sewell: I’m not an EOJS by any means, but I just don’t think he’s really all that much better than a few other middlemen, and I’m not persuaded by the FOJS that being the best SS in a down era for SS makes him ballotworthy. Particularly when Beauty received one last place vote in 1944. I guess I’ve never seen how anyone can have Sewell near the top of a ballot and not have Bancroft at least on the ballot.

I guess I’m officially an EO Jake Beckley, huh? I’ve never voted for him (IIRC), and I’m not about to start.

Clark Griffith: He’s part of a reconsideration I need to generally do for pitchers, and he’s either part of the Vance/Coveleski/Foster claque or else Vic Willis lite.

Heinie Manush: Or as we used to call him back in the day, Heinie My Toosh. He’s got nothing but timeline on Bobby Veach, and that’s a weak argument since Veach is basically Geo Burns lite.

Tony Lazzeri (EWBB name: Lapis Lazuli Lazzeri)
In this week’s episode of The Middle Infield Gang, will a newcomer’s arrival create dissention? Or bring the family new prosperity.

CRAB: Eh, who’s da new guy?

MUGSY: I dunno, but I don’t like his looks.

DA BOSS: Crab, Beauty, Laughin’ Larry, Dutch, Mugsy, Big Ed, Rabbit, Joey No K’s, King Richie, Pie Man, dis is da new guy just in from New Yawk, Tony Poosh ‘Em Up. He’s here to keep the heat off our backs while we make our big move into the southside.

RABBIT: I never trusted no New Yorkers. Tink dey knows everything just because’n dey won a couple-a dem Woild Serieses.

DA BOSS: Shut up over there. Anudder peep outta you, and you’ll be back to bustin’ knee caps and skulls in every two-bit laundrymat and tar-paper gin joint in the city instead of hittin’ up heavy rollers for big scores.

25% of a reasonable conservative estimate of the latter end of a Cicotte career that is extended somewhat but not excessively by being a knuckleballer and has him retiring with about 300 wins.

Sorry about that. It was late and I wanted to get the posts finished. I still should have had the total right.

No big deal. It ain't like I number the pitchers or anything.

PHOM
John Beckwith
Goose Goslin

1945 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
2.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
3.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1945
4.Goose Goslin – I’ve got Wheat as slightly better than Goslin. Still a solid HOMer though. Elected PHOM in 1945
5.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
6.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
7.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
9.Bill Foster – 3rd or 4th best Negro league pitcher. Moves down slightly
10.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
11.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
12.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
13.Edd Roush – Majorly underestimated him. Very good centerfielder.
14.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position..
15.Burleigh Grimes – Slightly more peak than Rixey, but I like Rixey’s consistency a little more. Also, his run support is pretty high.

Required Disclosures

Clark Griffith Doesn't rate so well in my system, but he was a major over-achiever as a pitcher. I'm sure I'm underrating him, but I can't see him getting on my ballot.

George Van Haltren Very nice consistent player. A higher prime would've made all the difference.

Jake Beckley Back in my top 50. Never will make my ballot. No peak.

Off the ballot
16-20 Leach, Mendez, Redding, Sisler, Lundy
21-25 Cooper, Schang, McGraw, Williamson, Waddell
26-30 Mays, Taylor, Griffith, Poles, Tiernan
31-35 Bresnahan, Van Haltren, Doyle, Sewell, Traynor
36-40 Chance, Burns, McCormick, Bancroft, Griffin
41-45 F. Jones, Bond, Wilson, Long, Welch
46-50 R. Thomas, Cravath, Fournier, Konetchy, Beckley

Chris Cobb:

Good point about how just a few runs per "season" can result in a goodly difference in career win shares. That reinforces a point I was trying to make. Welch had poorer defensive support than any HoM pitcher of his time. Consequently, he gave up a few more hits and runs. Consequently, his ERA+ is lower than those pitchers with better defenses behind them.
I definitely agree with you that ERA+ is not the best way to examine and rank early pitchers. There were too many differences compared with later baseball: leaving pitchers in blowouts, wider variance in team fielding to name two. However, ERA+ is one of the most, if not the most, popular reasons for not voting for Welch.

Also, I hope everyone pops over to Chris J.'s blog, runsupportindex.blogspot.com, periodically because he has some great stuff that applies to some of the pitchers on the ballot. Specifically, his Marichal-Perry list of pitchers who were on the same team for several seasons yet received dramatically different offensive support. Not just because Welch is one of the 8 pairs.

Take a look at the difference b/t Rixey and Luque while they were teammates from 1921-1929. To summarize, while Rixey was slightly below "average" with a run support index of 98.97, Luque was supported at a level of 84.49. Does anyone know if the Reds laid down to a degree b/c Luque wasn't white? - Or did Luque face all the good pitchers? That difference is the second largest, next to Marichal and Perry.

Pitcher comparison with the post 93 mob:

First: Who is similar to whom using similarity scores (courtesy of baseballreference.com)
I marked the current inductees in the HoM. You can see who you think has the most future HoM comparables.

Cooper:
Marquard
Dauss
Larry French
S Coveleski - HoM
Drysdale
Luque
Pappas
Jim Perry
G Mullin
F Fitzsimmons
(top 6 over 900, down to 897 with Fitz)

Ferrell:
Stivetts
Sadie McMahon
T Bridges
Jouett Meekin
General Crowder
Brickyard Kennedy
Guy Bush
Lon Warneke
Elton Chamberlain
Rick Sutcliffe
(top 6 over 900, down to 891 with Sutcliffe)

Grimes:
Faber - HoM
Ruffing
Lyons
Mullane
Weyhing
Dennis Martinez
Rixey
Sam Jones
Willis
T John
(top 4 over 900, down to 865 with John)

Griffith:
McGinnity - HoM
Buffington
Fitzsimmons
S Coveleski - HoM
Jesse Haines
Mays
Hubbell
Pennock
Marichal
Silver King
(top 4 are over 900, down to 879 with King)

Mays:
Coveleski - HoM
Warneke
Chief Bender
Shocker
Chesbro
Cicotte
Nehf
Tannehill
Babe Adams
Fitzsimmons
(all scores except Fitz were over 900)

Rixey:
Jack Powell
Faber - HoM
Lyons
Kaat
Robin Roberts
Grimes
Quinn
T John
Mullane
Jenkins
(only Powell is over 900 (901), down to Jenkins with 838)

Waddell:
Hippo Vaughn
Doc White
Walsh - HoM
Vance - HoM
Bill Donovan
Cicotte
Cuellar
Chesbro
Bender
Drysdale
(top 2 are over 900, down to 859 with Drysdale)

Willis:
Mullin
Faber - HoM
Jim McCormick
Grimes
Powell
Bob Gibson
Mullane
Martinez
Rusie - HoM
Wilbur Cooper
(top 2 are over 900, down to 853 with Cooper)

Any conclusions worth drawing? Rixey has the most unique career totals (arguably) over Waddell and Willis. Mays, Ferrell, Cooper have the least unique career totals. Thought it was interesting that Ferrell had several 1890s pitchers on his list while Griffith did not. Did the numbers somehow recognize that Ferrell was used (abused) like another era, while Griffith was not used like other pitchers in his time??

Re: above comment about Stivetts being Ferrell's most similar player.
Jack Stivetts:
1890: 41 ws, 2nd in AA, 7th in majors
1891: 46 ws, 1st in AA, 2nd in majors
1892: 49 ws, best player in baseball
1893: 25 ws, 8th best pitcher
1894: 33 ws, 6th best pitcher
1896: 29 ws, 8th best pitcher
His 264 win shares are the 5th most of the 1890s, only Nichols, Young and Rusie have more among pitchers.
That is 6 top 10s as a pitcher in the 1890s or 3 more than Griffith...

Pitcher post part 2 looking at the number of times in the top 10 in their respective league.

W Cooper:
1916: 20, 6th t, Alexander 44
1917: 22, 4th, Alexander 40, Vaughn 24, Schupp 23
1918: 23, 4th, Vaughn 28, Grimes 25, Tyler 24
1919: 25, 5th, Vaughn 30, Adams 27, Alexander, Ruether 26
1920: 31, 3rd, Alexander 36, Grimes 32
1921: 27, 2nd, Grimes 29
1922: 27, 1st
1923: 21, 5th t, Luque 39, Alexander 27, Rixey 26, Morrison 23
1924: 24, 2nd, Vance 36

Ferrell:
1929: 25, 3rd, Grove 28, Marberry 26
1930: 32, 2nd, Grove 37
1931: 28, 3rd, Grove 42, Earnshaw 29
1932: 26, 3rd t, Grove 33, Crowder 30
1933: 18, 8th, Harder 24
1935: 35, 1st, Best player in American League
1936: 27, 2nd, Grove 29

Grimes:
1918: 25, 2nd, Vaughn 28
1920: 32, 2nd, Alexander 36
1921: 29, 1st
1923: 21, 5th t, Luque 39, Alexander 27, Rixey 26, Morrison 23
1924: 21, 3rd tied with 3, Vance 36, W Cooper 24, Barnes, Rixey, Kremer 21
1927: 19, 10th, Alexander, Haines 28
1928: 30, 2nd t, Vance 32, Benton 30
1929: 23, 2nd t, Lucas 26, Clark, Malone 23

Griffith:
1895: 34, 4th t, Hawley 44, Young 37, Hoffer 35, Nichols 34
1896: 30, 6th t, Young 43, Cuppy 38, Nichols 33, Killen 32, Hoffer 31
1898: 32, 4th, Nichols 44, Young 34, J Tannehill 34
1901: 27, 3rd, Young 41, Miller 30

Mays
1916: 22, 5 th t, Ruth 37
1917: 30, 4 th, Ruth 36, Cicotte, 35, Bagby 34
1918: 25, 4 th, Johnson 38, S Perry 30, S Coveleski 29
1920: 27, 2 nd t, Bagby 34, Shawkey 27
1921: 35, 2 nd, Faber 37
1924: 20, 7 th, Vance 36
1926: 20, 6 th, Kremer 25

Rixey:
1916: 24, 3rd t, Alexander 44, Pfeffer 32
1917: 20, 6th, Alexander 40
1921: 22, 4th t, Grimes 29, W Cooper 27, Luque 23, Alexander 22
1922: 23, 2nd, W Cooper 27
1923: 26, 3rd, Luque 39, Alexander 27
1924: 21, 3rd tied with 3, Vance 36, W Cooper 24, Barnes, Grimes, Kremer 21
1925: 26, 3rd, Donohue 28, Luque 27
1928: 22, 7th, Vance 32

Waddell:
1902: 33, 2nd, Young 38
1903: 27, 3rd t, Young 38, Plank 28
1904: 32, 3rd, Chesbro 53, Young 35
1905: 35, 1st
1908: 21, 7th t

Willis:
1898: 25, 10th t, Nichols 44
1899: 39, 1st
1901: 33, 1st
1902: 29, 2nd, J Taylor 32
1903: 19, 9th t, McGinnity 40
1906: 29, 2nd, T F Brown 35
1907: 20, 9th, Overall 32
1908: 20, 8th t, Mathewson 39
1909: 24, 5th t, Brown 36, Mathewson 34, Camnitz 30, Overall 30

I thought it would be appropriate to compare them to the enshrined from the era: Coveleski, Faber, Vance, Alexander, Johnson. I decided to leave off the latter two because it is just embarrassing.

Coveleski:
1917: 29, 5 th t, Ruth 36, Cicotte 35, Bagby 34, Mays 30, Johnson 29
1918: 29, 3 rd, Johnson 38, S Perry 30
1919: 27, tied for 1 st or 2 nd depending on what you do with Cicotte 32, Johnson 27
1920: 32, 2nd, Bagby
1922: 22, 6 th t, Faber 31
1925: 23, 2 nd t, Johnson 26, Lyons and Pennock 23

Faber:
1915: 21, 10 th t, Johnson 42
1920: 25, 5 th, Bagby 34, Coveleski 32, Mays and Shawkey 27
1921: 37, 1 st
1922: 31, 1 st

Vance:
1924: 36, 1 st,
1925: 20, 5 th t, Donohue 28, Luque 27, Rixey 26, Scott 25, Alexander 20
1927: 25, 3 rd, Alexander and Haines 28
1928: 32, 1st
1929: 19, 7 th t, Lucas 26
1930: 26, 1st

So anything interesting?
Best in league:
Vance: 3
Faber: 2
Willis: 2
Cooper: 1
Ferrell: 1
Grimes: 1
Waddell: 1
Coveleski: 0
Griffith: 0
Rixey: 0
Mays: 0

Top 3 in league:
Grimes: 6 // 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3
Ferrell: 6 // 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3
Rixey: 5 // 2, 3, 3, 3, 3
Vance: 4 // 1, 1, 1, 3
Willis: 4 // 1, 1, 2, 2
Cooper: 4 // 1, 2, 3, 3
Waddell: 4 // 1, 2, 3, 3
Coveleski: 4 // 2, 2, 2, 3
Faber: 2 // 1, 1
Mays: 2 // 2, 2
Griffith: 1 // 3

Cooper is the most consistent with 9 straight years in the top 10.
Grimes had 5 years as one of the top 2 in his league.
Grimes has 8 top 10s in 12 years.
Rixey has 8 top 10s in 13 years with 1.5 years in WWI.
Ferrell has 7 top 10s in 8 years.
I would say Ferrell has the best peak of any of them (maybe Vance, but Vance didn’t have Grove in his league)

pitcher post #3 looking at some win shares numbers and Chris J.'s numbers. HoMers underlined.

3 biggest years:
Willis: 101 (39+33+29)
Waddell: 100 (35+33+32)
Griffith: 96 (34+32+30)
Ferrell: 95 (35+32+28)
Vance: 94 (36+32+26)
Faber: 93 (37+31+25)
Mays: 92 (35+30+27)
Grimes: 91 (32+30+29)
Coveleski: 90 (32+29+29)
Cooper: 85 (31+27+27)
Rixey: 76 (26+26+24)

Ferrell looks mighty impressive considering the time when he pitched, Rixey not so much.

Career Win Shares:
Rixey: 315
Willis: 293
Faber: 292
Grimes: 286
Griffith: 273
Cooper: 266
Mays: 256
Coveleski: 245
Vance: 241
Waddell: 240
Ferrell: 233

Rixey looks much better over the long haul. Bottom 3 include 2 famous injury-ridden pitchers.

Win Shares per 275 innings pitched:
Ferrell: 24.4
Mays: 23.3
Vance: 22.3
Waddell: 22.3
Griffith: 22.2
Coveleski: 21.8
Cooper: 21.0
Willis: 20.2
Faber: 19.6
Rixey: 19.3
Grimes: 18.8

Ferrell very impressive. Rixey, Grimes, Faber not so much.

Defensive Suport (courtesy of Chris J.’s runsupportindex.blogspot.com)
Mays: 14.1
Cooper: 11.1
Waddell: 9.1
Willis: 8.8
Rixey: 8.6
Ferrell: 6.9
Griffith: 6.3
Coveleski: 4.8
Grimes: 4.1
Faber: 2.9
Vance: neg 1.5

Run Support Index:
Mays: 114.36
Grimes: 106.67
Griffith: 105.5
Ferrell: 102.76
Faber: 101.04
Coveleski: 100.57
Willis: 100.13
Cooper: 99.69
Rixey: 95.31
Waddell: 94.83
Vance: 90.47

Hmm... Mays certainly got great support didn’t he? Vance is the anti-Mays.

Kelly, how does Cicotte rank on these totals?

My ballot is still in flux for the next month. I'm working on different aspects of my system which will involve a combination of the two systems until I have the update complete. Therefore, I'm not going to campaign too hard for anybody for a while.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).



1) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (2): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. I have him pegged at his position(s) multiple times as the best for many seasons among white and black players.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (n/e): Back on my ballot with a bullet! Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (5): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

4) George Van Haltren-CF/P (n/e): Another player who does well with my new system. Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

5) Jake Beckley-1B (11): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

6) Pie Traynor-3B (10): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

7) Burleigh Grimes (9): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

8) Eppa Rixey-P (14): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

9) Mickey Welch-P (12): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

10) Frank Chance-1B/C (n/e): Another Phoenix! Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

11) Charley Jones-LF/CF (6): Takes a hit, but still kicking. He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

12) Ed Konetchy-1B (n/e): Best first baseman of the Deadball Era, IMO. The uber-stat systems don't measure first base well, so Konetchy is hurt by that. Best major league first baseman for 1910, 1911 and 1916 (very close in 1909 and 1912). Best NL first baseman for 1909, 1912 and 1919.

13) Vic Willis-P (7): Still ballot worthy, but not as much. Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

14) Tom York-LF (8): I don't know if York will be on my ballot next time. I'm not caving in to peer pressure, but I just see his career differently now. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today). Best leftfielder of the 1870's. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

15) Goose Goslin (15): I'm not that impressed with him. He didn't really stand out at his position, yet can't use the Babe Ruth excuse that he is being unfairly compared (like Heilmann or Waner can). Best AL leftfielder for 1924. Best major league leftfielder for 1925 and 1927

Foster, Griffith and Ferrell are knocking on the door - will they enter my ballot at some time?

Dr. Chaleeko, the "Snapshots" were highly entertaining.

1945 Ballot. No new eligibles cluttering the top.

1. Bill Foster (3). If we're going to elect NeL players we could do much worse than this Foster.

2. Goose Goslin (4). Nine years top 10 in the league for Extra Base Hits.

3. Rube Waddell (5). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

4. Edd Roush (6). Holdouts have cost him election so far.

5. Jimmy Ryan (7). Let's see: good hitting CF, longish career, decent fielder. Yep, I like that combo.

6. Clark Griffith (8). Some tweaks to my pitcher rankings show him moving up amongst the populace. Is he HOM worthy is another question. Fills an era lacking a player or two in the HOM.

7. Dick Redding (9). Real close to Griffith so I'll place them side by side.

8. Pete Browning (10). Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

9. Hughie Jennings (11). SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, albeit for a short stretch of time. Master of the hit by pitch.

10. John Beckwith (12). Character issues shouldn't be his downfall. How you did between the white lines, that's what matters.

11. Hugh Duffy (14). Duffy bounces from on to off the ballot every couple of years. His on cycle is here. Nice peak argument is good, did work in one-league era.

12. George Van Haltren (13). Have to make an effort to keep Ryan and Van Haltren near each other. Just seems after thirtysome years they're like PB & J.

13. Eppa Rixey (15). Long career, lost a year to WWI, very good most of the time, outstanding rarely. That's a lot of IPs to overlook. Winningest LHP before some guy named Spahn replaced him.

14. Tommy Leach (18). Very good fielder in both CF and 3B with enough hitting to make him valuable.

15. John McGraw (16). Man knew how to get on base.

In contention:

16. Spotswood Poles
17. Jake Beckley
18. Mike Griffin
19. Wes Ferrell
20. Cupid Childs
21. George Sisler
22. Vic Willis
23. Kiki Cuyler
24. Tony Mullane
25. Joe Sewell
26. Bobby Veach
27. Roger Bresnahan
28. Jose Mendez
29. Mickey Welch
30. Fred Dunlap
31. Fielder Jones
32. Dobie Moore
33. Carl Mays
34. Ben Taylor
35. Urban Shocker
36. Wally Schang
37. Charley Jones
38. Dick Lundy
39. Hack Wilson
40. Frank Chance
41. Burleigh Grimes
42. Pie Traynor
43. Mike Tiernan
44. Harry Hooper
45. Addie Joss
46. Bill Monroe
47. Gavvy Cravath
48. Eddie Cicotte
49. Waite Hoyt
50. Ed Konetchy

Newcomers/Needed explanations:

Lazzeri falls just outside the top 50. Manush is not close at all – no love from me.

Beckley, Ferrell and Sewell are both between 16 to 25. My ballot might be a little OF rich so I’ll continue to revamp elements to get a nice balance.

Beckley has consistency but not as high as peak as some others.

Ferrell was a fine combination player who could hit and pitch. I don’t bow down to WARP3 as much as some other folks. By other measures he doesn’t stand quite as tall. Anyways, someday he’ll hit my ballot.

Sewell did trump the major league SSs in his 8 years. He just misses Joe Cronin so that’s kinda lucky. And the Negro League competition around his time would have been stiff. Where does he rank with Dick Lundy and Dobie Moore? How about John Henry Lloyd and Willie Wells? Doesn’t take much for the SS position to have a lot of solid candidates in his era. That is unless you want the era defined to just the 8 years in baseball history he manned the position.

karl,
Because you requested it. And no, I am not going to do this for Leever.

Cicotte
1. Coveleski - HoM
2. Bender
3. Mays
4. Doc White
5. Chesbro
6. Shawkey
7. Silver King
8. Hippo Vaughn
9. Vance - HoM
10. Babe Adams
(top 6 over 900, down to 895 with Adams)

Cicotte
1913: 27, 3rd, Johnson 54, Russel 32
1914: 21, 7th, Johnson 38
1916: 19, 8th, Ruth 37
1917: 35, 2nd, Ruth 36
1919: 32, 1st, depending on if or how much of a discount you give for the World Series, Johnson and Coveleski are next with 27
1920: 24, 6th t, Bagby 34, tied with Shocker

Best in league
Cicotte: 1
tied with Ferrell, Grimes, Cooper, and Waddell

Top 3 in league
Cicotte: 3 // 1, 2, 3
ahead of only Faber, Mays, and Griffith

3 biggest years:
Cicotte: 94 (35+32+27)
Tied with Vance for 5th

Career Win Shares
Cicotte: 247
8th between Mays and Coveleski

Win Shares per 275 innings
Cicotte: 21.0
tied with Cooper for 7th

Of course, Johnson and Alexander rank ahead of everyone on the above 5 lists.

Defensive Supprt
Cicotte: 9.8
3 rd best between Cooper and Waddell

Run Support Index
Cicotte: 107.36
2 nd best between Mays and Grimes

Cicotte has better support than anyone other than Mays.

2 part post looking at Clark Griffith and other pitchers of the 1890s. If someone else would like to add BPro numbers, please do. Chris J., if you have numbers for some of these, feel free to add as well.

Part 1.
Some notes on Clark Griffith and other pitchers of the 1890s. It is conceded by everyone that Nichols, Young, and Rusie were the 3 best pitchers of the 1890s. Is Griffith the 4th best as the FoCG claim? Let’s examine some numbers.

Start with win shares in the decade 1890-1899.
Nichols: 390
Young: 331
Rusie: 283
Stivetts: 264
Hutchison: 204
Breitenstein: 202
Frank Dwyer: 193 (who?)
Nig Cuppy: 180
Pink Hawley: 179
Frank Killen: 179
Griffith: 178
Jouett Meekin: 171
Brickyard Kennedy: 168

From this measure, it looks like Stivetts is the clear #4 pitcher of the decade. But I hear two “But”s out there. He pitched before the pitching distance changed and he pitched in the AA. Taking them one at a time.
Everyone would agree the AA was the weakest league in 1890 and 1891. How much should the numbers be downgraded? 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%? Considering the fact that 7 to 10% is the appropriate discount for 1944 and 1945 when over 500 players from the majors were in the military, I think 10% is about is far as I would downgrade his years. He would still have 255 win shares for the 1890s. Taking a 20% discount leaves Stivetts with 247 win shares.

Let’s look at the totals for just 1893 and later:
Nichols: 260
Young: 251
Breitenstein: 191
Rusie: 175
Hawley: 172
Griffith: 163
Kennedy: 158
Meekin: 150
Cuppy: 149
Dwyer: 141
Killen: 140
Stivetts: 128
Hutchison: 56

Just on raw numbers, Griffith is 6th, much closer than before, but still 23 win shares behind Breitenstein.
Let’s look at times in the top 10, league and overall (for 1890, 1891)
Nichols: 10 times for his league, 10 times overall.
Young: 9 times for his league, 9 overall
Rusie: 7 times for his league, 7 times overall
Stivetts: 6 times for his league, 6 times overall
Breitenstein: 5 times league
Hutchison: 3 times league
Dwyer: 4 times league, 3 times overall
Cuppy: 4 times league
Hawley: 4 times league
Killen: 2 times league
Griffith: 3 times league
Meekin: 3 times league
Kennedy: 3 times league

Now, where did the player finish in the top 10, chronologically
Nichols: 3, 3, 2, 3, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1, 5 (t)
Young: 6, 4, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4, 2, 2 (t)
Rusie: 5, 4, 6, 2, 1, 7, 3
Stivetts: 2, 1, 1, 8, 6, 8
Breitenstein: 5, 5, 8, 2, 10
Hutchison: 1, 1, 3
Dwyer: 7, 10, 6, 10
Cuppy: 7, 8, 6, 2
Hawley: 7, 1, 9, 8
Killen: 1, 4
Griffith: 4 (t), 6 (t), 4
Meekin: 2, 9, 9
Kennedy: 6, 6, 8