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Monday, February 28, 2005

1946 Ballot

Al Simmons, Turkey Stearnes, Mule Suttles, Earl Averill, Wally Berger, Dizzy Dean and Newt Allen lead off one of the most impressive classes of newly eligible to date.

Top-ten returnees include: John Beckwith, Eppa Rixey, Clark Griffith, Hughie Jennings, Wes Ferrell, Joe Sewell, George Sisler and George Van Haltren.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 28, 2005 at 01:20 PM | 119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Howie Menckel Posted: March 07, 2005 at 12:47 PM (#1185407)
I do remember the latter part of Allen's career, basically as he left Philly.
Keep in mind that a 55-yr-old sportswriter in Phily in 1965 would have been age 37 when Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. So picture that guy evaluating Allen, a very "mod" player for his time (yes, they used that word!). Obviously, there was a massive cultural gulf that wasn't going to be bridged in that decade.
Having said that, it doesn't mean that he couldn't have been a jerk as well (see Bonds, Barry).
My most vivid memory of him is his 1972 season with the White Sox. Chuck Tanner was the manager, and there was a lot of talk that Tanner was the one guy who "knew how to reach him." Tanner was a bit like Chuck Daly, deftly tweaking his rules so that he could avoid self-defeating showdowns while still maintaining group respect. Allen always came across to me as quite a smart guy, but he had a chip on his shoulder (quite possibly with some legitimacy, given the era).

Like Bobby Bonds, the frequency with which Allen changed teams was considered an automatic negative in those days. Reggie Sanders would seem a current example, but we know from countless interviews that he is considered one of the NL's classiest players. Surely Allen doesn't come near that mold, but there were far more limited sources of info then.

It would be a challenge to get an accurate take now; the only people old enough to remember him vividly in Philly also were a product of the time and of the coverage of him. It's not like they KNEW him. I think most comments would tend to either try to build him up or tear him down based on one's agenda. This might be as good a place as any to find an exception to that, though.
I know a good number of professional athletes pretty well, and the general profile of some of them offered by the media isn't all that accurate.

Hope this helps a little. I'll try not to hijack the ballot thread any further; maybe we move it to the Beckwith thread?
   102. Kelly in SD Posted: March 07, 2005 at 01:00 PM (#1185418)

Thank you for your response. Good idea on the move over to the Beckwith thread.

   103. Ken Fischer Posted: March 07, 2005 at 01:02 PM (#1185421)
1946 Ballot

1-Turkey Stearnes
Turkey was one of the great hitters of the Negro Leagues with the ability to bat clean-up or lead off. He won many HR titles while maintaining high batting averages.

2-Al Simmons 375 WS
Simmons had a .329 batting average in post season. He had two batting titles during the A’s glory years.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall.

4-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

5-Mule Suttles
Great Negro Leaguer from same era as Stearnes. Just a notch below Turkey.

6-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

8-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

9-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

10-John Beckwith
Read somewhere he once hit four HRs in a game at Crosley Field. Played for at least 13 teams. Read a lot about how he was a nasty guy…but he did manage for awhile…some boss didn’t think he was all bad.

11-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

12-Earl Averill 280 WS
He’s penalized some by a short career. Earl gave Indians fans something to cheer about until Bob Feller came along.

13-Wes Ferrell 233 WS
6-20 win seasons in 8 years during the live ball era. Wes is usually short changed because of his high ERA but it’s an unfair when compared to dead ball counterparts.

14-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

15-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
Rixey matches up well with Grimes & Faber. He had a long and interesting career. He is known for his time with the Reds but made it into the Series only once with the Phils early in his career.
   104. EricC Posted: March 07, 2005 at 01:16 PM (#1185436)
1946 ballot.

1. Al Simmons I agree, better than Goslin. Another run of the mill corner outfielder HoMer. Mel Ott, Paul Waner, and perhaps Joe Medwick are the remaining prewar corner outfielders more likely than not to get in. Simmons' career progression shows interesting similarities to Sisler, but everything was better: peak was higher and longer; down half of career was not as bad.

2. Wally Schang See my post #105 on the "Estimating league quality" thread. Anybody who thinks we should go deeper than Cochrane/Hartnett/Dickey in prewar catchers should look long and hard at Schang.

3. Joe Sewell Position player leaders in Win Shares, 1921-1929: Ruth, Hornsby, Heilmann, Frisch, Sewell, Goslin, Speaker, Rice, Traynor, Cobb.

4. Earl Averill The arithmetic mean of Frank Baker and Elmer Flick.

5. Turkey Stearnes Power-hitting OF of the 1920s-1930s. 13 or so Holway all-star selections.

6. Sam Rice With Hooper, among backlog leaders in my league-adjusted career Win Shares above replacement measure.

7. Roger Bresnahan Great catcher of the 1900s.

8. Wes Ferrell Great prime, small bonus for hitting.

9. Jose Mendez His domination of the Cuban leagues and NEL total run average title in his full season may indicate a HOM-worthy peak.

10. Mule Suttles Power-hitting 1B/OF of the 1925-1940 "golden age". Keeping in mind that enough "career value" will raise a player in my system (Sam Rice, for example), not so sure that his career value shouldn't put him above Stearnes, but am bending (for once) to the expert consensus.

11. Eppa Rixey 1920s pitcher, meritorius on career value. Note that he makes my balot in spite of my heftier than average NL discount in this period.

12. Harry Hooper Nearly the equal of Sam Rice, in a less offense-heavy era.

13. Waite Hoyt Wouldn't have made my ballot if he had retired after 1932, but a change of scenery and conversion to more of a relief pitcher gave him a career second wind and made him a legitimate borderline candidate.

14. Pie Traynor Position player leaders in Win Shares 1923-1933: Ruth, Gehrig, Simmons, Goslin, Hornsby, Frisch, Traynor, P. Waner, Manush, J. Sewell Not the greatest 3B of all time by a long shot, but seems to fall into a blind spot of orthodox sabermetrics; deserves some rehabilitation.

15. Heinie Manush See Traynor comment. Most similar players: George Gore, Joe Kelley, Sherry Magee, Willie Keeler, but competition is tougher now, so has no chance of getting in.

Beckley, Jennings, and Van Haltren are in my retroactive PHoM, so I give them a vote of confidence. My philosophy is more slanted toward recent players than the consensus', however, so they, along with Griffith and Duffy, have now fallen into the 16-30 range on my ballot.

Beckwith was a good-hitting 3B/SS of the 1920s, a period with a noticable lack of HoM infielders, so I understand the appeal. My own, conservative, view of his record is that he falls a little short. Additionally, I think that a number of NELers, for example, Ben Taylor, Sol White, Dick Lundy, Dick Redding, and, soon, Biz Mackay and Jud Wison, have better cases.

George Sisler: I sympathize with his case. Unlike some other candidates whose ML career was derailed by injury or being stuck in the minors, Sisler was almost certainly on target for a HoM career before his injury. Still, I have to go by what a player accomplished, and his peak wasn't quite dominant or long enough for me. See Simmons comment.
   105. Mike Webber Posted: March 07, 2005 at 03:16 PM (#1185577)
I am mostly using Win Shares with a bonus for peak seasons. Discounting pre-1893 pitching accomplishments, and trying to balance the positions better.

1)AL SIMMONS - Even letting the air out of the 1930’s stats, he is a terrific player.
2)TURKEY STEARNES – As with all Negro Leaguers its an educated guess. In the end I’m more comfortable with trying to explain why Turkey and Mule are in than why they are out.
4)CARL MAYS – Looked hard at the eligible pitchers, and he appears to be the best combination of peak and career length.
7)WALLY BERGER – These three centerfielders are essentially a group, and in the end I decided to rank them by career win shares. Berger probably has the best peak, and who knows what Averill losses credit for in the PCL.
8)ROGER BRESNAHAN – I think that the argument for him about being the best catcher in the period has considerable merit. Between Ewing and Dickey he is the best.
9)HUGHIE JENNINGS – Peak Monster!
10)TOMMY LEACH – That long career and solid peak, I still see him as a top 10, even with the strong newcomers on the ballot.
   106. Mike Webber Posted: March 07, 2005 at 03:20 PM (#1185582)
11)LARRY DOYLE – 1912 MVP!
13)WALLY SCHANG – 2nd best catcher of the period.
14)VIC WILLIS – Decided his peak trumped Rixey, and his total win shares trumped the others.
15)BURLEIGH GRIMES – Again the peak trumps Rixey. But its wafer thin between 14, 15, Ferrell, Rixey, Cooper, Griffith and Shocker.

Next 10 – Ferrell, Cooper, Traynor, Lazzeri, Sewell, Griffith, Shocker, Sisler, Rixey, Ryan.

Disclosures – Beckwith – Not convinced he is Dick Allen, am convinced he is at least Bill Madlock and probably Edgar Martinez.

Van Haltren – trying to even up the positions, knocked him out of the top 25. 30th on my list now. Not sure I like that, but I like ten other things better so I will take that as a side effect.

Jake Beckley – Not in the top 50, but here is a cool picture I found:
Beckley at West Side Grounds

Rube Waddell – just out of top 25.

Cicotte – I see the arguments for him, but they are trumped in my mind by his World Series exploits. If you are going to give guys credit for outstanding peak performance because it gets you to the post-season, shouldn’t you heavily penalize players who’s intentionally tank the post season?
   107. PhillyBooster Posted: March 07, 2005 at 03:22 PM (#1185587)
1. Al Simmons (n/e) -- Always partial to the name "Aloysius". Sixth "Most Similar" hitter is Dave "Cobra" Parker. #2 All-Time for the Phila. A's in OPS behind Jimmy Foxx. #1 in Total Bases over Bob Johnson. #2 in doubles, behind Jimmy Dykes.

2. Turkey Steanes (n/e) -- one of the 100 greatest players of all time. "Norman" is just not reach to name quality of "Aloysius."

3. Mule Suttles (n/e) -- with limited info, I can conclude that he was better than Eppa Rixey. That's all he needs to finish 3rd.

4. Eppa Rixey (1) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit.

5. Jake Beckley (2) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top.

6. Gavy Cravath (3) -- Full credit for the nearly-half of his career that is buried in old PCL and AA stat-books. Even conservative estimages put him above 300 win shares -- probably over 350. 350 Win Shares and a peak like his? He was among the best deadball sluggers ever.

7. Jose Mendez (5) -- We seem to love Wes Ferrell. I think Ferrell was no Jose Mendez.

8. Dolf Luque (6) -- It took the World War player dearth for Luque to finally get a solid shot at the majors, despite numerous seasons of top-rate pitching at a young age in Cuba, the Negro Leagues, and the top white minors. He doesn't get credit for more than he did, but he does get to fill out the left side of his bell curve a little. Those Cuban league games counted too, and I think they have to be considered in creating the "big picture".

9. Mickey Welch (7) -- Am I getting bored, or just less impressed with his numbers to 400th time I've looked at them? I don't know. In any case, I'm less inspired about pushing his candidacy than I have been in previous years, and his "subjective points" ranking is starting to slide a little.

10. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (10) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

13. Pete Browning (11) -- One of the best hitters ever, but with one of the shortest careers. Season adjusted, he's Albert Belle.

14. Bill Monroe (12) -- still one of the best.

15. Tommy Leach (15) -- My next "career only". Bumped him over Griffith and Redding.

16. Clark Griffith (13) -- The HoM needs more PITCHERS.

17. Dick Redding (14) -- Like this guy.
candidate after Beckley.

T18. Wes Ferrell and Vic Willis. I'm going to need more convincing before I put a guy with fewer innings than Bob Caruthers (Ferrell) on my ballot. Willis looks very good compared across eras, but maybe a little less compared to his peers.

19. Wally Schang -- huge gap between him and the next best catcher leads me to think we're undervaluing his accomplishments.

20: Pick: Sewell, van Haltren, Jennings, Sisler, and Childs.
   108. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 07, 2005 at 04:57 PM (#1185767)
At the present time, Phillybooster's/Matt's ballot is invalid since he doesn't have a #12 on his ballot.

Still missing ballots from robc, Al Peterson, Don F, mbd1mbd1, Brad G., Philip, Brian H., KJOK, Guapo, jimd, Max Parkinson, Bleacher, RMc, Eric Enders and the mysterious (he thinks :-) Flaxseed.

46 ballots tabulated so far.
   109. Brad G Posted: March 07, 2005 at 08:41 PM (#1186363)
Sorry for the lateness & brief comments... running against the clock here!

1946 Ballot:

1.Turkey Stearnes- All the evidence available points to Turkey as a surefire HoMer.

2.Al Simmons- I’ve got him as the second best LF in my HoM (behind Ed Delehanty).

3.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

4.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938.

5.Mule Suttles- Looks like an eventual inductee… will have to wait for his turn.

6.Wes Ferrell- I believe his career WARP3 (82.5) leads all eligible pitchers.

7.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

8.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS3 = 100, WS5 = 145, over 30 WS/season, Black Ink = 36, Gray Ink = 158.

9.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

10.Burleigh Grimes- Super Ink scores: Black = 38, Gray = 213, will likely never reach the Hall.

11.Eppa Rixey- Black Ink = 10, Gray Ink = 175. 315 Career Win Shares.

12.Earl Averil- Consistent if not exactly mind-blowing career. Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

13.Kiki Cuyler- Currently my pick for best available RF, which isn’t a real big deal.

14.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

15.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career, overlooked due to CF glut.


16.Clark Griffith- I have him as the 5th best eligible pitcher, ahead of newcomer Dizzy Dean.

17.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445. Just too many ahead of him right now.

18.Sam Rice- Best career of eligible RFs. Career Win Shares = 327, Career Runs Created = 1467.

19.Pete Browning- Career OPS+ = 162

20.Larry Doyle

21.John Beckwith- I could conceivably have him as high as 13, but that’s about it.

   110. PhillyBooster Posted: March 07, 2005 at 08:55 PM (#1186398)
Fixing the bottom half of my ballot . . .

. . .

11. John Beckwith (10) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Pete Browning (11) -- One of the best hitters ever, but with one of the shortest careers. Season adjusted, he's Albert Belle.

13. Bill Monroe (12) -- still one of the best.

14. Tommy Leach (15) -- My next "career only". Bumped him over Griffith and Redding.

15. Clark Griffith (13) -- The HoM needs more PITCHERS.
   111. Al Peterson Posted: March 07, 2005 at 09:02 PM (#1186416)
1946 Ballot. New class has some quality so they need to be slotted. Sorry for the lateness but I don't think it affects who is being enshrined.

1. Turkey Stearns (-).
Even without the hard numbers of the majors his performance is enough above Simmons to place him at the top.

2. Al Simmons (-). I like his first name. Kinda surprised he never won a MVP then I remembered some of his competition for the award.

3. Rube Waddell (3).
Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

4. Edd Roush (4). Holdouts have cost him election so far.

5. Hugh Duffy (11). Even minor revisions in my system can lead to jumps when dealing with the backlog. Duffy benefits this time around. Excellent hitter with a peak in contracted, albeit high offense 1890’s. His fielding doesn’t hurt either.

6. Jimmy Ryan (5). Let's see: good hitting CF, longish career, decent fielder. Yep, I like that combo.

7. Clark Griffith (6). My run on the 1890s continues…

8. Dick Redding (7). Real close to Griffith so I'll place them side by side.

9. Tommy Leach (14). Career length, versatility, defensive excellence. Probably better than what people thought during his playing career.

10. Mule Suttles (-). Even with era and park deflation of numbers, as well as Negro League uncertainty, he could be on my team anytime. At least for hitting that is.

11. John Beckwith (10). Character issues shouldn't be his downfall. How you did between the white lines, that's what matters.

12. Pete Browning (8). Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

13. Earl Averill (-).
Hate to be a sheep but I seem to be like quite a few others in the group: His peak is very nice, career just long enough. This gets you a spot on the ballot, just not real high.

14. Hughie Jennings (9). SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, a short stretch where it can be argued he was a MVP type. Master of the hit by pitch – taking one for the team!

15. Eppa Rixey (13). Winningest LHP before some guy named Spahn replaced him. You look at the number of innings pitched and it’s a bunch. But consider: Missed 1918 and part of 1919 due to WWI. 1912 he goes directly from college at UVa to the majors – no small trick since few did it. So he’s probably major league quality at that time and misses out on some innings. In 1913 his season starts late since he returned to UVa to finish some schooling. When adding these non-injury breaks to his playing totals you have a guy with close to 5000 IPs. Wow.

In contention:

16. George Van Haltren
17. John McGraw
18. Spotswood Poles
19. Cupid Childs
20. Jake Beckley
21. Wes Ferrell
22. George Sisler
23. Kiki Cuyler
24. Mike Griffin
25. Joe Sewell
26. Tony Mullane
27. Frank Chance
28. Vic Willis
29. Roger Bresnahan
30. Mickey Welch
31. Jose Mendez
32. Fred Dunlap
33. Carl Mays
34. Fielder Jones
35. Bobby Veach
36. Wally Berger (-). Is the difference between Averill and Berger 23 spots? With the close competition we have here it appears so. Better peak but career length and defensive position bump him down.
37. Dick Lundy
38. Dobie Moore
39. Urban Shocker
40. Ben Taylor
41. Wally Schang
42. Eddie Cicotte
43. Roy Thomas
44. Charley Jones
45. Pie Traynor
46. Harry Hooper
47. Mike Tiernan
48. Burleigh Grimes
49. Bill Monroe
50. Gavvy Cravath

Newcomers/Needed explanations:

Next Allen – I’m tempted to put him in the top 50 but not right now. He’ll have years of analysis ahead of him.

Dizzy Dean - He's perfect for the HOF since few are as famous 70 years after his career than the Dizzy one. But the results just aren't there for a HOM election.

Ferrell, Sewell, Van Haltren, Sisler and Beckley are all within shouting distance of the bottom of the ballot. Of these Van Haltren and Beckley have career length but lack as much peak as others. Ferrell and Sisler have peak arguments but little to offer otherwise. Sewell is a nice player – some of the other SS’s from his time impress me as much or more, even if they weren’t in the major leagues.
   112. Max Parkinson Posted: March 07, 2005 at 09:31 PM (#1186465)
1946 ballot:(MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Stearnes and Simmons)

1. Turkey Stearnes

An all-time great. Would have been the best CF in the game for a decade, were he allowed to play. My bent towards “best in the game” or at least “best at his position” indirectly hurts Averill, as he wouldn’t have been Stearnes’ equal...

2. Al Simmons

Very Good for a long time, and great for long enough as well.

3. Hughie Jennings

Still crazy after all these years… Hughie remains the only player on the ballot with the “Best Player in the Game” belt. I’m not sure that a good chunk of you will ever be convinced of my argument, but I’d rather a superduperstar for 5 years, with a blah 6 or 7 than a pretty good player for 15. For those 5 great years, Hughie was more valuable offensively than A-rod in his prime, and was otherworldly in the field. 5 possible MVP years are much more than anyone else here can claim…

It seems as though Hughie isn’t going to make it for a while, now. Pity.

4. Wes Ferrell

The peak/prime voter in me. I don’t hold his (unsuccessful) comeback attempts against him at all.

5. John Beckwith

I went with the assumption that Beckwith in the big leagues wouldn't have lasted long at 3rd base, and would've ended up at 1st or left field. Taking Chris Cobb's WS estimates, I compared him to his contemporaries at the bat-first positions of LF,RF and 1B. He falls behind the no-brainers, but was comparable to Konetchy, Sisler and Keeler (not a true contemporary). Assuming average defensive value at 1B or LF, which is no stretch at all, he falls just ahead of Ed and Terry.

I understand that this is a conservative estimate of Beckwith’s defensive capability, but I can point to a number of current big-leaguers who were shortstops at AA or AAA or even for a year or two in the majors who would never be considered ML SSs or even 3rd basemen – Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell, not to mention Delgado and Phelps (catchers, which is a similar proposition of good bat at key defensive positions who got shifted leftward on the spectrum).

6. Mule Suttles

I’m a little concerned about how great he really was (I’m starting to question how often he would have been a first team all-star, what with Gehrig and Foxx, with sometimes Terry and Greenberg playing at the same time...), but I’ll start him here, and see how the debate goes.

7. Clark Griffith

As discussed in the Mickey Welch thread, Griffith is the best pitcher not yet inducted from a pretty damn good era of baseball, the one-league late ‘90s, where the other 3 are inner-circle types in Young, Nichols and Rusie. Contrast Welch, who would be at best the 7th best pitcher from his decade. Note the late ‘90s (as it’s true that Stivetts and Breitenstein would give him a run for his money if the pre-mound days were considered…)

8. Ed Konetchy

Ahead of Sisler? Well, it’s close but yes. Whereas Rixey had the better extended prime than Faber, it wasn’t better by enough to overcome Faber’s peak lead. Here, Konetchy’s prime is better by enough to overcome Sisler’s peak. Take defense for example. Sisler was acknowledged as a great glove man, but it was really only true while he was young. Konetchy was as good as that for most of his career. Konetchy never had Sisler’s great few seasons, but he wasn’t nearly as bad at his worst.

9. Dick Redding

I think he slots in best here. But really, I’ve got a system that has a possible point range from 0 to 5950. The Babe is #1 with just over 4600, and 5 other players are above 3000. 14 more are better than 2000. I’ve got 46 players (retired and active) between Jennings (1618) and Eddie Cicotte (1420), a gap of less than 200 points. If I think Redding’s in this region, the margin of error puts him anywhere from 4 to 35 on this ballot.

10. Harry Hooper
11. George Burns

An excellent defensive RF, who would have played centre if an all-time great wasn’t there, and a great leadoff hitter of the teens.

12. Rube Waddell

A beneficiary of my correction for previously overpenalising poor-hitting and poor-fielding pitchers. He was certainly both. But those K’s…

13. Bobby Veach

Peak was higher than Hooper, but prime not as long. Was the 3rd best OF in the AL a few times; not too shabby when the other 2 are Cobb and Speaker.

14. George Sisler
15. Bill Monroe


16-20. Grimes, Cuyler, Sewell, Moore, Uhle
21-25. Maranville, Rixey, Taylor, Shocker, F. Jones
26-30. Lundy, Roush, Bancroft, Mays, C. Jones
31-35. Mendez, Luque, Cicotte, Pennock, Duffy
36-40. Quinn, Leach, Averill, Seymour, Allen
41-45. Hoyt, Fletcher, Tinker, Shawkey, Lazzeri
46-50. Rommel, Buffinton. Youngs, Willis, Traynor
51-55. Dean, Bottomley, Bush, Stivetts, Dauss
56-60. Winters, Cross, Williamson, McGraw, Beckley
   113. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 07, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1186553)
Can't wait to see how the top five rounds out. If I read the HOM racing form correctly, we're going to have a good-old-fashioned horserace for the place spot in 1948 behind Gehringer.

Beckwith, Suttles, Rixey, J Wilson, Lyons, and C.P. Bell are going to be quite a group to work from, and seeing how the first three sort themselves on this ballot, then adding Wilson in 1947, it should be fascinating to watch how the whole thing falls out.
   114. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: March 07, 2005 at 10:58 PM (#1186631)
I meant to post this Saturday or Sunday, but it kept slipping my mind. Are we ready? So sorry for the delay...

1946 ballot:

1. Turkey Stearnes: No doubts about him. 12 Holway all-star teams, 3 MVPs. MLE projections show a top-notch player. If he’s even close to being a Musial or Ott, he makes the top of the ballot.

2. Al Simmons: No doubts about him, either. 375WS, A defense, 8 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons.

3. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after – still, was the STATS all-star 1B in 1925, and a probable runner-up to Gehrig in ’27. Good black & gray ink. (PHOM 1938)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W% and quite a few of his teams were mediocre at best. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. All that in spite of a 107 ERA+! Now that’s pitching in a pinch! : -) (PHOM 1942)

5. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, above-average offense for a middle infielder. May have been the best of a weak lot at ss, however. (PHOM 1939)

6. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s. (PHOM 1945)

7. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

8. Mule Suttles: Power-hitting 1b/lf, long career – I think of Willie Stargell with less plate discipline. Pops would slot higher on this ballot, I’m being cautious at the start.

9. Roger Bresnahan: I dropped him behind Schang for a few years, but Roger’s career suggests brilliance, Wally’s doesn’t. (PHOM 1932)

10. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. 3 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons. Good gray ink. (PHOM 1926)

11. Mickey Welch: Still think he’s worthy of induction, but pitchers of his era are well-represented already, and he’s not as good as his enshrined brethren. (PHOM 1929)

12. Hugh Duffy: Solid WS and WS/162, MVP in ’94, excellent defense. In my PHOM (1940) but slipping here.

13. Pie Traynor: Bill James isn’t too fond of him, but still has him 15th all-time at 3b, which makes him 2nd/3rd so far, behind Baker and the still-active Hack. He may well have been overrated historically, but I think he’s being underrated here.

14. John Beckwith: From all I’ve read, I have no doubts that he was a great hitter and that his defense left a lot to be desired. He probably would not have played a right-spectrum position in the majors, but there certainly would have been a place for that bat.

15. Rube Waddell: Terrific ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, but the W-L is worse than what you’d think given those.

Required explanations:
Rixey: Good for a long time. About 8th on my pitcher list.
Van Haltren: Good, not great. STATS AS teams: nada. Wish he’d either get elected or go away.
Ferrell: I’ve got about 15 pitchers under serious consideration and he’s in the bottom 5 of those. Fewer innings than any of the others; I prefer Mays & Waddell among the low-innings guys.
Jennings: Exceptional peak, not enough beyond that.

Also in the mix, not necessarily in order: Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Larry Doyle, Vic Willis, Carl Mays, Eppa Rixey, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Wally Schang, Spots Poles, Dick Lundy, Edd Roush, Wilbur Cooper, Dave Bancroft, Waite Hoyt.
   115. jimd Posted: March 07, 2005 at 11:33 PM (#1186703)
Ballot for 1946

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my system (yet again). Maybe next election.

1) A. SIMMONS -- Heads.

2) T. STEARNES -- Tails. (Don't like casting ties so I flipped a coin).

3) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

4) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers.

5) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

6) J. BECKWITH -- Moving him up based on discussions.

7) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

8) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Excellent defensive fielder does not get enough credit.

12) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

13) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

14) H. DUFFY -- Underrated.

15) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Rabbit Maranville, Jimmy Ryan, Harry Hooper, Dick Redding,
20-23) Eppa Rixey, Ned Williamson, Herman Long, Ray Schalk,
24-27) Edd Roush, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
28-31) Jose Mendez, Del Pratt, Gavy Cravath, Earl Averill,
32-35) Roger Bresnahan, Sam Rice, Jack Quinn, Dizzy Dean,
36-39) Tommy Bond, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley
   116. KJOK Posted: March 08, 2005 at 12:01 AM (#1186746)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. TURKEY STEARNES, CF. . Generally considered the 2nd best Negro Leagues OFer of all time behind only Oscar Charleston. Best comp I can find is probably Hank Aaron.

2. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 164 OPS+ over 7,419 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

3. AL SIMMONS, LF/CF. .644 OWP. 356 RCAP. 9,517 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Very similar to Goose Goslin.

4. DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 122 OPS+ over 9,684 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense puts him ahead of Sewell. Comp is Joe Cronin.

5. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

6. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for Santop.

7. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

8. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

9. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

10. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

11. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

12. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

13. MULE SUTTLES, LF/1B. After adjusting for parks and eras, I think he’s very close to Ben Taylor offensively, but a little less valuable defensively.

14. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

15. EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP. 321 RCAP. 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.


NEWT ALLEN, 2B. Not sure exactly where to slot Allen, but does not appear to be as good as Monroe offensively.

DIZZY DEAN, P. 205 RSAA, 144 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 130 ERA+ in 1,967 innings. Doesn’t measure up to Joss for sure, and seems to be below Urban Shocker.


RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

TONY LAZZERI, 2B. .599 OWP. 325 RCAP. 7,304 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A more modern version of Cupid Childs.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber. Just off the ballot.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

DAVE BANCROFT, SS. .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Much better hitter than Maranville. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler or Chance due to peak differences.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times. Hit like Ken Williams, only played longer and played 2B.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers. Plus, like Willis, we’ve already elected the best pitchers from his era.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being much higher.
   117. OCF Posted: March 08, 2005 at 12:19 AM (#1186776)
I was 1 off from reconciling the count with John's post #108. Anyway, I have 52 now, with Bleacher, Eric Enders, Guapo, mdb1mdb1, Philip, RMc, robc, and Flaxseed out there. One new voter this year in Gadfly; two if you count Trevor as new.
   118. James Newburg Posted: March 08, 2005 at 12:52 AM (#1186828)
I'm hoping I get in under the radar -- the deadline is still 5pm PST Monday, right?

It's been dozens of years since I've posted a ballot. I've been too busy with school, work and other things to take the time and due diligence to hair-split a few dozen marginal candidates. But now I'm able to jump into the fray now that there are plenty of strong candidates on the ballot. I am a peak/prime voter who uses adjusted Win Shares for all players and ERA+ for pitchers. My timeline threatens pretty much all of the remaining 19th-century candidates. I'll leave it to the HOM veterans to guess who I am.

The position player candidates are a Murderer's Row this year.

Changes from my first preliminary ballot: Earl Averill goes from 16th to 6th upon reevaluation of his PCL career. That and moving Beckwith to 5th slides Arlett from 5th to 7th and Suttles, Jennings and Waddell one place down.

Poles goes from 11th to off of the ballot. The remaining issue is Arlett v. Suttles. Arlett's plate discipline makes me more confident that he was more likely to excel in the majors than Suttles.

1. Turkey Stearnes - Was 2nd on my ballot until I saw he was primarily a center fielder. Amazing player.

2. Al Simmons - Ninth all-time among major-league left fielders, ahead of Jesse Burkett and behind Tim Raines.

3. Dobie Moore - Tremendous, tremendous player. More career value than I thought and his peak value places him light-years ahead of Sewell. Possibly one of the ten greatest shortstops ever.

4. Dick Lundy - A prime/career candidate in the Davis/Dahlen/Luke Appling class of shortstops.

5. John Beckwith - Tremendous hitter. Probably the player who has benefitted the most from the HOM process, other than Dickey Pearce. Gets moved ahead of Arlett.

6. Earl Averill - High-prime player who had more value than I originally thought. Helped by re-evaluation of his PCL career.

7. Buzz Arlett - In awe of Brent's yeoman work on Arlett. More confident of his "superstar" status than I am for guys like George Sisler and George Van Haltren.

8. Mule Suttles - Probably the best hitter on this ballot, but too many holes in his game to fare better against stiff competition.

9. Hughie Jennings - The Sandy Koufax of infielders. Fourth best peak of all-time among major-league shortstops, behind Honus Wagner, Slappy McBluelips and Arky Vaughan.

10. Rube Waddell - When runs were scarce and a ball in play could lead to a game-deciding error, having a pitcher who could blow 'em away was an advantage.

11. Addie Joss - Very strong peak. The phrase "cut down in the middle of his prime" was made for him.

12. Clark Griffth - One-league era and peak value get him the edge over Rixey.

13. Wes Ferrell - I feel like I have a good handle on how he compares to the other pitchers on the ballot.

14. Eppa Rixey - 4500 innings of 115 ERA+ is just more #### valuable than the rest of the field.

15. Dizzy Dean - It takes every ounce of his outstanding peak for him to get on my ballot. Much like the NCAA Tournament, Dean's appearance will likely be one-and-done.

Consensus top 10 and other players
Edd Roush - His closest comp for career value is Cesar Cedeno.
George Van Haltren - Nice prime, but not enough to make up for his lack of peak, which lags behind Averill and Roush.
George Sisler - Decent peak, but his performance after 1923 makes the whole body of work underwhelming.
Joe Sewell - Solid player, but being in the Long/Bancroft range isn't enough to make a loaded ballot.
Jake Beckley - Hopefully, I'll never have to give an explaniation for him ever again.
   119. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 08, 2005 at 01:02 AM (#1186838)
The election is now over. I'll post the results shortly.

Thanks to Ron for his tally!
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