I'll submit a ballot sometime later. I'm still figuring out Bell's placement.

Gehringer’s a fine player, but well below Beckley and just below Sisler when you adjust for era. Waner’s WAY off the bottom. Lyons very close to Rixey, will start him just below, when you give Rixey WW1 credit. French also off the bottom. Bell a long way below his reputation – Lou Brock minus, about equal to Lave Cross. Lefty Gomez very short career, and unspectacular WPct given it was for the Evil Ones.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-6) Jud Wilson. Better than Suttles or Beckwith, not as good as Sisler, I think, though it’s close.

5. (N/A) Charlie Gehringer 2839 hits at an OPS of 124, but in an era when hits were cheap, so below Beckley and just below Sisler, even though 2B beats 1B. TB+BB/PA .531, TB+BB/Outs .867, well below Hack Wilson, for example.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP, decided I’d been undervaluing him, so moved him up the ballot a bit further. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

9. (N/A) Ted Lyons. 260-230 and an ERA+ of 118 put him very close to Rixey, but fewer innings (4161) Better hitter – 43 vs 22 OPS+. Think currently he’s just below not just above. Not much WW2 credit – he was 41.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

12. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

13. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

14. (N/A-13-14) John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles, but had a short career.

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Just misses again, but will be back on ballot in weak years.

17. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was.

18. (N/A) Mule Suttles. About halfway between Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman -- out rather than in, I feel.

19. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri Shortish career but a pretty good one, but decided to try him just below rather than above Childs. TB+BB/PA .521, TB+BB/Outs .816, OPS+121, only downside is only 1840 hits.

20. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

21. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

22. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

23. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special
24. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays and Ferrell
25. (N/A) Heinie Manush Shorter but better career than Rice. 2524 hits, TB+BB/PA .495, TB+BB/Outs .745. OPS+121.
26. Earl Averill Shorter but better career than Manush 2019 hits, OPS+133, TB+BB/PA .577, TB+BB/Outs .935. Wilson’s better still
27. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).
28. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134. His unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.
29. Wes Ferrell Hon. Mention really, because of his hitting. Even Mays is only hovering around 15, and Ferrell not as good a pitcher, for not as long.
30. (N/A) Dick Lundy Just a few spots below Sewell, based on his MLEs.
31. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
32. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
33. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
34. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
35. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
36. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
37. Cool Papa Bell. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
38. Kiki Cuyler
39. Jack Quinn
40. Deacon McGuire
41. Tony Mullane
42. Pye Traynor
43. Jim McCormick
44. Dick Redding
45. Joe Judge
46. Edd Roush
47. Spotswood Poles.
48. Larry Doyle
49. Roger Bresnahan.
50. Wayte Hoyt.
51. Harry Hooper.
52. Jules Thomas.
53. Wilbur Cooper
54. Bruce Petway.
55. Jack Clements
56. Bill Monroe
57. Jose Mendez
58. Herb Pennock
59. Chief Bender
60. Ed Konetchy
61. Jesse Tannehill
62. Bobby Veach
63. Cool Papa Bell
64. Lave Cross
65. Tommy Leach.
66. Tom York

Sorry, Bell should be 37 not 63, all others move up 1, as if it matters.

1948 Ballot

I still have more work to do on Bell and Lyons, but their placements are close enough to do for this year, so I'm going to vote early this time, after almost missing last year.

1. Charlie Gehringer (n/e). A great player. James has him at #59 all-time; I think that’s a little low.
2. Jud Wilson (4). In the running for most underrated player in Negro-League history, I think. Grant Johnson probably wins that race, though perhaps he’s more unknown than underrated. Not quite as good as Gehringer. If evaluated in an all-time context as a third baseman, he lands (in my reckoning) about even with Frank Baker. James has Baker at #70 all time which seems ok; I’d probably give Wilson the spot James has given to Cool Papa Bell, at #76.
2. John Beckwith (3). Fuller study of Wilson drops Beckwith firmly behind him; I need to do revised win shares for Beckwith, but the changes in MLEs are not large enough to catch him up to Boojum. Probably deserves to rate ahead of Lyons, but I need to have them sorted out more firmly for 1949.
4. Ted Lyons (n/e). I agree that he was better than Rixey; I have him provisionally slightly ahead of my man Clark Griffith as well. Further study needed.
5. Clark Griffith (5). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
6. Hughie Jennings (6). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
7. Eppa Rixey (7). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the late 1950s, though if he turns out to be better than Ruffing, election could come sooner than that.
8. Wes Ferrell (8). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
9. Mule Suttles (9). Needs revised win shares, but I’m sure he’s behind Gehringer/Beckwith/Wilson and ahead of Van Haltren. Without fuller analysis, I’ll take the pitchers over the slugger.
10. George Van Haltren (10). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
11. Edd Roush (11). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
12. Tommy Leach (12) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
13. George Sisler (13). Nice peak. Although I don’t use WARP formally in my system, the revision of his value there makes me feel more confident about keeping him on my ballot.
14.Earl Averill (14). Ranks between two other borderline cf candidates, Edd Roush and Spotswood Poles. This is giving Averill one full season of MLE credit for PCL play. Two seasons credit would put him right up with Roush and Van Haltren.
15. Larry Doyle (15). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Jake Beckley. Liking him better as I give the quality of competition in his prime due weight. He’s now at #34. If we make good progress into the backlog in the 1960s-1970s, he could make my ballot.

1945 Off-Ballot

16. Jose Mendez
17. Rabbit Maranville
18. Spotswood Poles
19. Burleigh Grimes
20. Dick Redding
21. Urban Shocker
22. Mickey Welch
23. Hugh Duffy
24. Cool Papa Bell (n/e). Very high career value and many seasons as a good player, but I’m doubtful that, without being a better player, he would have racked up quite so many games in the major leagues as I’ve projected him for, so I’m placing him here. I’m pretty sure that Hugh Duffy’s package of hitting and fielding and a career of moderate length is more meritorious than Bell’s package of hitting and fielding and a career of great length. I doubt the same is true of Jimmy Ryan or Buzz Arlett, so Bell starts here. If he had a strong, late peak in Mexico, he would pass Duffy and Poles and maybe Averill. What a tough player to rank! I think he and Suttles both benefit in James’ rankings from insufficient park adjustments for St. Louis; James has both in his top 100, but I don’t see it for either one.
25. Carl Mays
26. Rube Waddell
27. Jimmy Ryan
28. Roger Bresnahan
29. Wally Schang
30. Cupid Childs
31. Buzz Arlett
32. Dobie Moore
33. Ben Taylor
34. Jake Beckley
35. Joe Sewell
36. Dick Lundy
37. Waite Hoyt
38. Herman Long
39. Wilbur Cooper
40. Lave Cross
41. Kiki Cuyler
42. Harry Hooper
43. Bobby Veach
44. Fielder Jones
45. Dolf Luque
46. Gavvy Cravath
47. John McGraw
48. Tommy Bond
49. George J. Burns
50. Charley Jones
51. Bruce Petway
52. Bill Monroe
53. Dizzy Dean
54. Babe Adams
55. Mike Tiernan
56. Sam Rice
57. Dave Bancroft
58. Frank Chance
59. Tony Mullane
60. Ed Konetchy
61. Addie Joss
62. Wally Berger

Whoops, although it's clear from the comments what the order is, the numbers should be

2. Jud Wilson
3. John Beckwith

No amount of proof-reading will catch all errors . . .

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Charlie Gehringer-2B (n/e): One of the all-time greats at his position. Not a difficult choice for me this "year." Best major league second baseman for 1930, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1937 and 1938.

2) Jud Wilson-3B/1B (4): After looking over Chris' numbers, I'm totally sold on his greatness. Terrific hitter, not just as a third baseman, but for any position. The best thirdbaseman of his era. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1926, 1927, 1931 and 1932 if he had been allowed to play.

3) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (3): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1923 and 1929, as well as the best major league shortstop for 1925, if he had been allowed to play.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (5): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (6): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Ted Lyons-P (n/e): With WWII credit, he places here on my ballot. I definitely recommend his induction into the Hall. Best major league pitcher for 1927.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league rightfielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (8): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (9): I think karlmagnus overdoes it with his hitting metric, but he does make a good point about Beckley's hits. Prorated to a 162 game schedule, "Eagle Eye" would have easily made over 3,000 hits without breaking a sweat. How many contemporary batters would we leave off our ballots with that on their resume? I would think none.

Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Jack Quinn-P (10): Giving him credit for his 1916-17 years pushes him Never the best for a season, but more consistently good than Grimes or Rixey, IMO.

11) Wally Schang-C (11): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Eppa Rixey-P (14): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

14) Mickey Welch-P (15): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (n/e): First time on my ballot. I'm comfortable enough with his MLE's to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league rightfielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

Suttles, Ferrell, Averill, Jennings and Griffith all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Bell is a little better than Carey, but I wasn't that crazy with Scoops, either.

1. Gehringer – 5th to 8th best secondbaseman of all-time – 4th so far.

2. Ted Lyons – lots of wins for a bad team – great success in good role well into later years. Good ERA+, would have had most wins on this ballot for a 20th C. pitcher if he had played on even a decent team.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Jud Wilson – best of the three NeLers who are balloting well at this point.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

6. Eppa Rixey
7. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between these two candidates. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

8. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. George Sisler
11. Sam Rice – I like the hits. Sisler way out peaks Rice.

12. Mule Suttles – I can’t really peg him. He is somewhere between Stearnes and Monroe.

13. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). My personal, in/out line is here.

14. Beckwith – the Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS.

15. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Gomez, Hoyt (who I am surprised is not making any ballots), Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin.

The Rest


21. Wes Ferrell
25. Dizzy Dean

28 to 35 – Outfield glut.

·Cool Papa Bell – this is where Max Carey would be on my ballot. He is either slightly better or slightly worse than GVH and Averill. Given the relative strong support of those two by other voters, I’m surprised to see Bell off most ballots.

·George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

·Earl Averill

·Buzz Arlett – can 350+ WS be a correct translation? Like GVH, he pitched some too.

·Spotswood Poles – Van Haltren seems like a good comp.

·Edd Roush – little difference between Averill, Buzz, GVH, Poles, Roush, Ryan and Duffy, except the era and the contexts. Could rethink any of these guys upwards, but still probably won’t make the ballot until the 60s.

·Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

·Hugh Duffy – 10 strong seasons, good black ink.

38. Lefty Gomez
40. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great.

14. Beckwith – the Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS.

Chris actually has him at 315 WS, Daryn.

Busy, busy, busy. I may not be able to tabulate again this time.

1. Charlie Gehringer - I'm mechanically placing him #1.
2. Jud Wilson - Clear HOMer to me.
3. John Beckwith - Second HOF oversight.
4. Mule Suttles - Third HOF oversight.
5. Cool Papa Bell - Everyone seems to be focusing on OPS+, and not on defense (outstanding) or longetivity. We've elected worse OPS+, and few have Bell's longetivity. If you believe the MLE OPS+ numbers, then why don't you also believe the MLE hits numbers. Would we really fail to elect anyone with 3700+ hits?
6. George Van Haltren - I just have a hard time believing Van Haltren (or any remaining outfielder) is better than Bell.
7. Jake Beckley - Slow & steady wins the race, eventually.
8. Jimmy Ryan - Surprised that he has dropped while Van Haltren has remained strong.
9. Earl Averill - Consistently a top outfielder during his career.
10. Ted Lyons - Now, the best of the eligible long career pitchers.
11. Eppa Rixey - The Jake Beckley of pitchers.
12. Wes Ferrell - Enough of a peak to make it.
13. Dick Redding - Ted's convinced me Dick belongs. He may vault ahead of Van Haltren next week.
14. Burleigh Grimes - Probably shouldn't be too far from Rixey on anyone's ballot.
15. Dick Lundy - I think we're missing him.

Explanations -

Jennings - Not enough career.
Griffith - Not enough career, not high enough peak.

Enjoy.

(1) Charlie Gehringer (new)-- Beats Wilson on defensive value.
(2) Jud Wilson (3rd)-- A truly great hitter--look like somewhere between the 5th and 7th best 3B of All-Time. Being conservative, I see Paul Molitor as a comp.
(3) Mule Suttles (4th)-- As someone else said, there are no other players with his mix of skills-- all the other banger 1B had better batting eyes. As a major leaguer, I'd peg him at somewhere between 440 and 510 home runs with great leadership and durability and a slightly above average batting average. He's an HoMer with room to spare, but probably in the bottom 3rd of the Hall.
(4) Hughie Jennings (5th)--Truly great peak--the only guy to put up multiple seasons on the Speaker-Musial level who has had any trouble getting in.
(5) Hugh Duffy (8th)-- One of the very best in the game in the early 1890s, should be in already. Of the 29 position players who put up 250 unadjusted WS in their best 10 consecutive seasons, 25 are in. Duffy is one of the other four and he did it in much shorter seasons.
(6) Earl Averill(11th)--Big mover on my ballot. Another of the four unelected guys, he's by far the leader of the four with 268 WS in his best 10 years (272 if you give credit for his PCL years), plus (if you give him credit for one or two PCL years) he's the only one over 300 total WS, plus he played later and against tougher competition that at least two of the other three.
(7) Ted Lyons (new)--The body of his work is outstandin. Might move up fast in future years.
(8) John Beckwith (7th)-- For what ever reason, I remain less sold on him than Wilson and Suttles. Still, a hell of a hitter.
(9) Wes Ferrell (6th)-- Standing still in my esteem, but passed by a couple of big movers and a new guy and losses the coin flip this week with Beckwith.
(10) George Van Haltren (9th)-- One of my favorites, I reluctantly drop him behind a whole new crop despite my assessment that has him better than 7-10 current HoMers.
(11) Childs (10th)-- Shouldn't be overlooked.
(12) Moore (15th)-- I have the suspicion he should either be much higher or off my ballot but am forced to compromise here in the absence of better information.
(13) Rixey (12th)--Above the in/out line.
(14) Grimes (unranked/16th)--Back paired with Rixey.
(15) Charley Jones (14th)-- 1870s OPS+ numbers are great but are becoming an increasingly anachronistic reed on which to hang his candidacy.

My ballot is tto much in flux to go beyond that except for my required disclosure that Clark Griffith is somewhere in the 20's and unlikely to see my ballot anytime soon due to his relatively low workloads for an 1890s pitcher.

Cool Papa #21.

Gomez and French had nice careers but aren’t close to the ballot. Sam West would be as good a HoF choice as Lloyd Waner, which is pretty bad. Even a double-size HoM wouldn’t get Little Poison in.

1)Gehringer--I don’t think I’ll have shiny new toy remorse on this one.
2)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
3)Jud Wilson--Close to Gehringer.
4)Lyons--Between Alexander and Feller, only Grove and Hubbell are obvious pitching electees. Lyons is the best of the rest, I’d take him before Vance, Coveleski, Faber, and Rixey.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
7)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
8)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
9)Suttles--Struggling with where to put him.
10)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
11)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
12)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
13)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
14)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
15)Cuyler--I think he’ll be below the in/out line.

Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.

5. Cool Papa Bell - Everyone seems to be focusing on OPS+, and not on defense (outstanding) or longetivity. We've elected worse OPS+, and few have Bell's longetivity.

Actually, we haven't. The only elected position players with OPS+ lower than Bell's are Pearce, who we presume would have a much higher OPS+ if we had numbers from which to calculate it from 1858-1870, and Monte Ward, who was a pitcher for the first part of his career. Even Bobby Wallace and Bid McPHee have higher OPS+ than Bell, as currently calculated.

If you believe the MLE OPS+ numbers, then why don't you also believe the MLE hits numbers. Would we really fail to elect anyone with 3700+ hits?

Because the two numbers are derived separately. OPS+ is generated by a systematic conversion of NeL data to MLE data, the same for every player and subjected to the scrutiny of the electorate. The hits totals depend on that, but they also depend on my estimates of playing time, which are, truly, off-the-cuff estimates, based on nothing but my knowledge of the player's injury history and of the typical shape of major-league careers.

I'd like to have a more systematic way of estimating playing time, but I don't. So my estimates could well be off from a truly good estimate by a couple of hundred games or more. In this case, having studied the careers of other outfielders more fully in making the win share estimates, I think my first estimate of Bell's playing time was too high by 200-300 games.

1. ... Jake Beckley
2. ... Mickey Welch

...

5. ... Charlie Gehringer

Well, Karl's managed to exceed (or at least match) the time he put Caruthers ahead of Nap and Matty. ;)

My ballot. I'll only reserve comments for the guys who are new to my ballot this time around.

1. Charlie Gehringer. Nothing much to add to what already has been said. I like his all-around game, hitting and defense, nice peak seasons.

2. John Beckwith
3. Mule Suttles
4. Jud Wilson
5. Jose Mendez
6. Edd Roush
7. Wes Ferrell
8. Rube Waddell
9. Cannonball Dick Redding
10. George Sisler
11. Ben Taylor
12. Ted Lyons. As I said in my prelim ballot, I think he's the pitcher the Rixey supporters wish Eppa was. Tremendous career value, higher peak than Rixey.
13. Dick Lundy
14. Vic Willis
15. Cool Papa Bell. I think he's somewhat underrated by the MLEs...nice long career, peaked late, I think he would have carried his value well into his late 30s early 40s. Because of that, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt on the quality of his play in the Mexican League.

Top ten returnees not on my ballot.

17. Earl Averill. I like him, there are just better candidates at the moment. I've voted for him in the past and will again in the future.
18. Clark Griffith. Also close to my ballot. I haven't voted for him yet, but have been moving him up a bit. I think his peak is a little short for me, but his overall career value is nice, which is why he's in the territory to get onto my ballot sometime soon.
25. Hughie Jennings. I really like his peak; but there just isn't enough of it for me to put him in. If I could count his work as a manager he'd be on my ballot no question, but for now I can't justify putting him above the other candidates that are out there.
40. Jake Beckley. I've discussed this enough. Beckley is slightly better than Mark Grace overall. That's not meant to be a knock; Grace was a very good player, as was Beckley. But he's not HOM material, and he will never make my ballot, unless somebody uncovers something about him that reveals a new dimension to his game.
45. Eppa Rixey. Needs a better peak than what he's offering. There actually isn't that much difference between Lyons and Rixey, but Lyons' advantage in peak years places him about 30 spots higher on my ballot.

New candidates who did not make my ballot.

19. Lefty Gomez. Really interesting case. Great one year, mediocre the next. He's close. The great years might eventually pull him into my top 15, but it would have been nice if he had pitched longer.

65. Larry French. Seems very similar to Charlie Root. I have him one spot ahead of Root.

77. Lloyd Waner. Had a couple good years at the start of his career, but didn't hold his value long enough.

78. Billy Werber. A lot like Red Rolfe.

79. Red Rolfe. A lot like Billy Werber.

81. Sam West. Nice little career, Sam.

82. Leroy Matlock. Looked into some of his career. I think he had a really nice peak from 1933 to 1936, not great, but very good. He went undefeated, 17-0, in 1935 for the Pittsburgh Crawfords. One of the best left-handed Negro League pitchers of the 1930s. Unfortunately his performance seems to have fallen off a cliff around 1938, so his career value isn't stellar.

Michael, longer career, more hits, higher OPS+, fielding position that was not much less difficult and then there's the adjustment for Beckley's 12 team league vs. Gehringer's 16 team majors plus the Negro leagues, and the other adjustment for Beckley's shorter schedule length. I agree it's quite close, and Gehringer was a good player, but Beckley was better. Gehringer/Sisler is more arguable, I agree, but George had a better peak.

karl,

Are you saying that the 1930's weren't as competitive as the 1890's. I am as big a fan of the 1890's as there is (five players will be on my ballot this year) but methinks MLB had expanded its talent base by more than 33% in the ensuing 30 years.

The existence of the NeL isn't really a factor here. Black players weren't playing in the National League in the 1890's or the 1930's. That they had formed their own league(s) by the latter time period should have no effect on the level of competition in either since they weren't part of the talent pool in either. By the 1930's, the West Coast had pretty much been fully integrated into MLB, players from the south had been integrated, AND the population of the NE and MW had grown.

You are free to do whatever you wish with your ballot, but the reason given above isn't terribly valid.

Calling 2B "not much less difficult" and then citing Beckley's longer career is a bit ridiculous. 2B, because of the angle on DPs, is the position with the second highest attrition rate among position players.

AND the population of the NE and MW had grown.

The nation's white population in 1900 was 66.8 million. In 1930 it was 110.3 million. It should've been able to accomodate an extra four teams without any severe dillution.

2B in the 1930s was little less difficult than 1B in the 1890s, given the different styles of play and levels of equipment. I take the point about the league quality, which steadily increased over time, but the pinch in the 1890s certainly offset that, and one of Beckley's best years was in the 8 team league of 1900, at least a sharp "local" peak in quality. As I said, it's not a huge gap, but IMHO Beckley's pretty clearly the right side of it, though I am less sure about Sisler (I'm sure about Beckley/Sisler, but less so about Sisler/Gehringer.)

The team are going to elect Gehringer this year anyway, I would expect, but I don't think he's top 100, though of course he makes my PHOM too.

Karl,
Do I misremember thee as author of the argument that diminished economic incentives weakened recruitment in the 1890s; the Clarke, Lajoie, Wagner, Flick generation was thin. In other words, author of the leading counterargument to the pinch of the 1890s?

1948 Ballot:
This is shaping up to be the most intriguing election in a while. Almost makes me want to dust off the ol’ ballot counter. Oh, and I’m a bit behind the curve in this, but I’m 25 (not quite the youngest voter) and I started voting in 1932. I had been following along for quite some time, but the Lip Pike bandwagon was too hard to resist.

1) Charlie Gehringer
With the imminent election of the Mechanical Man, Roberto Alomar’s recent retirement, and planning my fantasy baseball draft list, it becomes sadly apparent that in the 2005 season the MLB may be without a great 2nd baseman…Kent? Soriano? As an O’s fan, I’m left to root for Brian Roberts to reach a level of play that his past history indicates he cannot attain.

2) Ted Lyons
He’s the top eligible pitcher in my ranks even without war credit. I’m giving him a little less war credit than what was mentioned in the discussion thread. I actually have him as the #9 pitcher of all time through this election. 105 WARP3 and 300+ Win Shares is mighty impressive given that he is subject to less of an innings and era adjustment than most of the other top pitchers. Lyons’ peak is not remarkable, but his career value—a whopping 1062 PRAR—is up there with the second tier of all-time greats.

3) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Not counting Lyons, he has the highest Career WARP3 (81.2) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (455). Haven’t heard much from Jonesy lately have we?

4) Dizzy Dean
Koufaxian peak: In their top 5 years Dean had 49.1 WARP3 & 145 WS, Koufax had 49.5 WARP3 & 144 WS. That may not bode well for Koufax given how little support Diz has received so far.
More Dean/Koufax similarities: BP’s Translated Pitiching Statistics have Dean’s HR/9, BB/9, K/9 at 0.8, 2.1, 9.4; Koufax has 0.8, 2.9, 10.6. Not exact matches, but pretty close. By the way, Dean comes out with about 350 less Translated IP. DISCLAIMER: I do not actually think that Dean was as good as Koufax, I just find the resemblance of their careers intriguing.

5) Ben Taylor
Ben has a highly regarded historical reputation—Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Plus Chris Cobb estimates 326 Win Shares & KJOK estimates an OPS+ of 138. I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman. This week Ben wins the honor of taking the higher ballot spot.

6) Mule Suttles
Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different, and Mule hit those towering home runs that get longer and longer as the recollections of weathered witnesses weakens. Still, he was an incredible slugger.

7) Dick Redding
Best NeL pitcher on the board. 2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era. I’m putting him in the middle of the 4 Negro League hitters that are so hard to place. I was going to put him at #5, but 4 pitchers in the top 5 seemed like too many.

8) Jud Wilson
Career length puts him ahead of Beckwith as #1 in my Negro League 3rd base rankings.

9) John Beckwith
The separation between Becks and Boojum is very narrow. There are so many question marks in the records for the two of them that I can’t imagine one making the HoM and the other being left out. Both could be as high as number 3 on this ballot.

10) Eppa Rixey
Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+. Highest career PRAR of eligibles (other than Lyons), 871.

11) Rube Waddell
142 ERA+ 3.81 DERA. 209 PRAA/ 429PRAR/ 145WS in 5 best seasons. Behind only Dean & Ferrell in PRAR in his top 5 seasons.

12) Jose Mendez
Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.

13) Joe Sewell
Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. He’s been treading water in this area of the ballot for a while. I haven’t seen anything that convinces me he should move one way or the other.

14) Cool Papa Bell
I’m finding it much harder to dismiss Bell’s reputation than it was to dismiss Judy Johnson’s. I’m still a little stunned that his numbers appear to be unimpressive. The longevity factor earns him a ballot spot.

15) George Sisler
New WARP numbers earn Gorgeous George a spot on the ballot’s caboose.

The Second Fifteen
16) Earl Averill—I haven’t been giving him PCL credit which prevents him from edging past Sisler. I may reconsider for next election.
17) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS. Revelations about Bell make me think Poles has been underrated by history.
18) Dick Lundy—Probably underrated as well.
19) Hughie Jennings—I don’t feel like I’m losing my preference for high-peak players, but Hughie’s sloooow slide off the ballot may be evidence to the contrary.
20) Dobie Moore
21) Bill Monroe
22) Urban Shocker
23) Fielder Jones
24) Harry Hooper
25) Gavy Cravath
26) Larry French—Solid career. Almost 600 more Translated IP than Gomez and WARP indicates a he was pitching in a tougher league.
27) Clark Griffith—He’s got ok peak value and ok career value, but not outstanding enough in either to rank higher.
28) Ed Cicotte
29) John Donaldson—2nd best Negro League lefty. Seems to have been totally overlooked by the electorate—not that I’m much better ranking him so low.
30) Kiki Cuyler

Other Top 10 not on my ballot
87) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 31.7 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity. New WARP doesn’t help/hurt him at all.

New Players in Top 100
47) Lefty Gomez

My 1948 ballot:

1. Charlie Gerhinger -- head & shoulders above all else
2. Ted Lyons -- great underrated pitcher
3. Jud Wilson -- his time is near
4. Earl Averill -- great hitter and good defender
5. Jake Beckley -- slow and steady wins the race
6. Eppa Rixey -- very good pitcher for many years
7. Lefty Gomez -- great winning pct is impressive
8. Mule Suttles -- could be higher or lower
9. Joe Sewell -- perhaps losing traction
10. Tony Lazzeri -- good power numbers for 2B
11. Edd Roush -- very good CF, hated John McGraw
12. George Van Haltren -- 1890s star CF
13. George Sisler -- new WARP is compelling
14. John Beckwith -- not sold on his ML longevity
15. Kiki Cuyler -- ballot basement may be harsh

Not voting for group top ten: Wes Ferrell (will likely never vote for him); Hughie Jennings (bottom of ballot only); and Clark Griffith (the strongest of the three in my mind).

1948 Ballot:
I have adjusted my system to give a slight bonus for being the all-star (from STATS or Win Shares) at one’s position for one’s league. Also, for being among the top 4 pitchers in ones’ league. Catchers now receive a bonus as well. If they play at least 85% of their career games in the field at catcher they get the full bonus. If they play less then 15%, then no bonus at all. If between the two, they get a porportionate portion of the bonus.

My ranking system is based on how a player does in their 3 best consecutive seasons (peak), best 7 seasons – nonconsecutive (prime), career totals, per season totals, all-star appearances. Black and Grey Ink scores also play a part. Peak and Prime are weighted the heaviest.

I use win shares predominantly, because I spend enough time on this project without checking to see I need to redo my player database because BP changed their formula again. Rankings can be adjusted based on competition or league quality issues, but those adjustments are usually small.

Onto the ballot:

1. Charlie Gehringer (PHOM 1948): 6 times best 2nd baseman in AL and Majors. Fourth best second baseman so far, by peak, prime, or career. Fantastic black and grey ink scores of 27/ 191; only 5 players have more black ink, 1 with more grey. Hit for average, power, and took walks – averaged over 80 per 162 games. Win shares rates his defense as only a “B” but does credit him with 6 gold gloves. Also, led league in put outs 3 times, assists 7 times, double plays 4 times, and percentage 7 times. By win shares, he has the highest career totals (but for NeL estimated players), second highest peak, and the fourth highest prime.

2. Jud Wilson (PHOM 1948): could be number 1 or number 3. Half third baseman/ half first baseman with a long career. 8 Holway “all-stars.” Lots of hits, lots of walks. Very high average hitter. Average defensively. Great estimated win shares totals, peak, prime, and career are great for someone who spent half his career at third.

3. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): Against other Hall-of-Merit pitchers – 62-38. No other HoM comes close (but I haven’t done Alexander, Johnson, Young, Matty, or Grove). ERA+ of 113 in the 3rd most innnings of pre 1893 innings is great when you consider only Galvin had worse defensive support AND the electees frequently pitched for teams that max’d out their defensive win shares which Welch’s teams did only ONE time. Just about every comparable pitcher is in the HoM, or will be: Of the 7 most similar, 5 are in, Tom Seaver will be a first balloter, and Mullane has competition issues.

4. Charley Jones PHOM 1906: Huge peak and prime. Career totals hurt because he lost 2 and one-sixth seasons for being blackballed. Teams did not pay their players when their contracts stated if they were on the road. Jones demanded his pay (to pay debts, I don’t remember for what). Evidently, this was the last straw with the owners who threw him off the team. Despite missing those 2 plus years, still a STATS all-star 5 times, league all-star by win shares 4 times and major league all-star 3 times. Very good black and grey ink scores of 20 / 162 considering he is missing two years in his prime.

5. Pete Browning PHOM 1921: Huge peak and prime. Excellent per-year numbers as well. Second highest peak, second highest prime. STATS loves him – 8 times all-star. Win shares 5 times league, twice majors. Adjusted for season length, 5 years of 30 win shares. OPS+ of 162 is best among eligibles.

6. Hugh Duffy PHOM 1919: 5 times among best 5 position players. 2 times best player in league. 5 times win shares all-star, 2 times majors. A+ defender by win shares despite only playing 4 years as a centerfielder so the result is NOT because of the CF bonus in the system. Great black and grey ink totals of 38 / 147. Fourth highest peak, third highest prime among eligibles.

7. Mule Suttles: Long career. Excellent peak, prime, and career numbers. Great power. Not a good defender, but evidently his bat was good enough for him to play first despite the position being so defensively focused in the NeL. 5 time Holway “all-star.” If he was Reggie Jackson lite that’s pretty good, considering Reggie will be a first balloter on my ballot, I think (and I hate the Yankees.)

8. Earl Averill: Gets one year of credit for his third year of PCL play. 6 time STATS all-star, 9 time win shares all-star, though only 2 times a majors all-star (vs. Waner, Ott, Medwick, O’Doul, Simmons, Ruth, H Wilson, et al.,). 7 years with at least 25 win shares. Best center fielder in AL b/t Speaker and DiMaggio. Win shares rates him an “A” center fielder with 4 gold gloves and 2 times the best defensive outfielder.

9. Jose Mendez: Convinced by his thread that he was an excellent pitcher. Best Cuban pitcher. Good record against white teams, great record in Cuba. Just don’t have that much more to add.

10. Wes Ferrell: He moves up as I am now adjusting the rankings to allow for the shorter careers and lower peaks that post-dead-ball pitchers would have. 6 times in top 3 pitchers in AL, one time best. If not for Grove, he would have 3 firsts, 3 seconds. 7 top 10s in ERA, ERA+, and wins. 6 top 10s in innings pitched.

11. George Burns PHOM 1938: His ability to stay in line-up puts him over Roush this time. Excellent peak and prime, fifth and sixth highest respectively. All-stars: STATS 2 times, win shares 5 times league, 3 times majors. Integral part of Giant pennant winners of teens and twenties. Excellent black and grey ink totals of 33 / 135. Compared to Carey who spent more of his career after 1920, Burns scored more runs per 162 games, got more hits, and walked more often.

12. Edd Roush PHOM 1940: All-star: STATS 5 times, win shares league 5 times, majors 2 times. Defense: 5 win shares gold gloves, with an overall “A-“ ranking. 3 years over 30 win shares, averaged over 25 per 162 games or 648 PA.

13. Vic Willis PHOM 1942: Better qualified than Coveleski, Vance, or Faber IMO. 2 times best pitcher in league: 1899, 1901, 2 times second best pitcher in league: 1902, 1906. 9 top 10s in wins and innings pitched. 5 tops in ERA, ERA+ with 2 firsts in ERA+. His Grey Ink score of 204 is better than HoMers Rusie, Walsh, McGinnity, Coveleski, Faber, Vance, and Brown. His Black Ink is better than Plank, Coveleski, and Faber. He did have great defensive support, but 11 of the 14 white, post-1893 pitchers had similar or much better defensive support.

14. Dobie Moore: Great power-hitting shortstop. Gets some credit for the Army-playing years. Better peak than Beckwith. Positional advantage over Beckwith. 6 times Holway “all-star” in many fewer seasons.

15. John Beckwith: Great power-hitting third baseman and first baseman. Not the most angelic bottom of the ballot. 7 times Holway “all-star”

not on ballot:
16. George Van Haltren PHOM 1939: Pushed down from raw numbers because of lack of big / all-star years. This is a stuffed ballot. Really wanted a 20 man ballot this year.
17. Tommy Leach
18. Ted Lyons: Don’t know what to do with WWII credit yet. This is ranking without it. Hopefully, I can figure out a system I am happy with before the 1949 election. 5 times STATS and win shares all-star. ERA+ is slightly better than Rixey’s which is great for Lyons considering their disparity in defensive support: Using Chris J.’s defensive support measure, Rixey had over 8 extra defensive win shares support over agerage (a very high score) and Lyons was negative. Much higher Black Ink score compared to Rixey – 32 to 10. Despite a worse defense, he had 10 ERA and ERA+ top 10s vs Rixey’s 7 and 6. 12 top 10s in fewest baserunners per 9 innings.
19. Wilbur Cooper
20. Hughie Jennings: Too many good players with longer primes.
21. Dizzy Dean (That was a big surprise. Like Jennings of the mound.)
(Bill Terry)
(Red Faber)
(Dazzy Vance)
22. George Sisler: Closer than I thought. Best ranking of white first basemen, though I would rather have Chance as of today.
23. Burleigh Grimes
24. Cupid Childs
25. Larry Doyle
26. Cool Papa Bell: I had him originally slotted somewhere between Leach and Carey. He has a longer career than either, but appears to be a worse hitter (at least by OPS+ as figured by David Foss). I think Carey is tremendously overrated by the electorate. Bell is here because I have him with about 3 to 3 and one half more years than Carey. About 19 “seasons” of 162 games. Great defender. Hurt by his manager’s decision about the switch-hitting. So the longer career puts him over Carey, but Leach’s more valuable defense (A+ at third as well as CF) and better hitting, put Bell in the middle. Mind is still open depending on new evidence about his hitting.
27. Rube Waddell
28. Frank Chance
29. Wally Berger
30. Clark Griffith
31. Carl Mays (reduced because of fantastic offensive and defensive support)

Spots Poles is somewhere somewhere between Bell and Carey.
Bill Monroe: Slots in around here based on some short form WS estimates provided by Dr. Chaleeko.

34. Roger Bresnahan
35. Jimmy Ryan
(Max Carey)
36. Eppa Rixey: No big years. Yes, has all-star appearances, but no big years. Had much better offensive support than his teammate Luque. I believe Alexander, Luque, and Donahue were the top pitchers on his team’s staffs. Innings eaters do not do well in my system.
37. Fielder Jones
38. Hack Wilson
39. Roy Thomas
40. Urban Shocker
41. Kiki Cuyler
42. Bobby Veach
(This is a giant knot, 34-42, of players, similar to 11-20. There is very little difference b/t them.)

43. Gavy Cravath (I need to figure out if he gets credit for minor league play, and if yes, how much...)
44. Jack Fournier (I need to figure out if he gets credit for minor league play, and if yes, how much... less than Cravath, but still should receive some.)
45. Herman Long
46. John McGraw
47. Ross Youngs
48. Joe Sewell
(Bobby Wallace)
49. Dolf Luque
(Stopped ranking them all at this point. Pitchers only now.)
George Uhle
Bob Shawkey
Herb Pennock
Ed Rommel
Waite Hoyt
Lefty Gomez: 2 big years not enough. I thought a great money pitcher, but see Chris J.'s site.

Re: Dick Redding, Dick Lundy. They have not been forgotten about. I am not confident at all in their placement except they are out of my top 15, but in my top 40.

Other top 10s:
Beckley: Really far down the list. The lack of any peak, a high prime, and comparable all-star seasons like every other 1st basemen candidate hurt him significantly. Career totals by themselves are not sufficient for high placement (see also: Rice, Sam.)

Other newbies:
Larry French: Scores better than Freddie Fitzsimmons (next year).
Lloyd Waner: Below Beckley.

Oh, Clark Griffith is not on the list because while he pitched well, he did not pitch the workloads the usual number 1 pitchers did for the era. Similar to Joss' usage in the next decade. Definitely had good years and a great one, but so far that is not enough. He is close though. This is a deep ballot.

Paul, you're absolutely right, I was the "adverse incentives" generator, suggesting that early and mid 90s baseball was less attractive for someone like Leever with other non-minimum-wage options.

To the extent that this affected league quality rather than individual players (as the number of middle class Leevers was small relative to the blue collar total) it will have produced a dearth of players coming INTO the league in the early and mid 1890s, thus possibly a weak patch centered around 1900 (counteracted by further contraction in that year, but quality in 1901-02 was clearly pretty low, and nobody thinks of 1898-99 as vintage years either). Beckley and his contemporaries, who came into the league in 1888, will have been more or less unaffected by this.

PHoM: Charlie Gehringer & Gabby Hartnett

1. Charlie Gehringer (new) PHoM 1948

Easy #1 for me.

2. John Beckwith (new for me)

I have had him off my radar unfairly. I have reassessed him. I'm not positive he belogns ahead of Suttles and GVH, but for now he is.

3. Mule Suttles (3,9,x)

4. Eppa Rixey (4,3,4)PHoM 1939

Rixey is an odd one for me. I'm not a cheerleader for him, but he keeps sneaking into a higher spot than I would guess.

5. George Van Haltren (2,2,3) PHoM 1912

Should have been in years ago.

6. Jake Beckley (6,4,5) PHoM 1913

Next to GVH, the most passed-over.

7. Mickey Welch (7,5,6) PHoM 1929

A personal favorite.

8. Tommy Leach (8,6,7)PHoM 1921
9. Edd Roush (9,8,8) PHoM 1942

I thought these two would have faded by now.

10. Jud Wilson (new for me)

Moved up a little. I still think he is a bit over-rated.

11. Cool Papa Bell (new)

I want to put him higher.

12. Ted Lyons (new)

I'm not as big a fan of him as some.

13. Hugh Duffy (10,11,9) PHoM 1930
14. Sam Rice (12,12,12) PHoM 1940
15. George Sisler (11,10,11) PHoM 1940

Hangers-on.

16-20. Lundy, Ryan, Averill, Moore, Monroe
21-25. Mullane, Powell, Griffith, Childs, Streeter
26-30. Sewell, Doyle, Grimes, White, Gleason

1948

1. Charlie Gehringer (new, PHoM 1948). Best "glove" (C-2B-SS-3B) between Hornsby and 1960.

2. Hughie Jennings (4 last year-3-2, PHoM 1927). I think people are misinterpreting Bill James' comment that Jennings had no business being selected to the HoF. In 1945-1946 there was still hope for a "small hall," the VC had not yet done its worst. Based on the hoped for standard (basically one defined by the BBWAA choices through the years), perhaps Jennings does not belong. But the hoped-for standard is not what has evolved and in a large hall of 225 or so members, Jennings does belong. James' rating of Jennings at #18, ahead of Dahlen and Sewell, suggests as much. 18 x 8 positions = only 144 position players.

3. Dobie Moore (5-4-4, PHoM 1942). Offensively right in the ballpark with Wilson, Suttles and Beckwith, and he played SS and played it well. Deserves credit for play with the Wreckers--after all, he was playing baseball.

4. Jud Wilson (3-x, PHoM 1948). Moves down one slot, I had forgotten he was 2/3 3B, 1/3 1B. Looks like 1948 HoMer and I would be very pleased if we celebrate our 50th anniversary with a "discovery" of somebody who has been overlooked by the powers-that-be, expecially someone overlooked for the wrongest of reasons. That after all is our mission in life.

5. George Sisler (6-5-3, PHoM 1938). Oddly shaped career. A normal shaped career with *the same seasonal values* and same career totals would be in the HoM already.

6. Mule Suttles (9-6-x). Still a bit unsure but moves back up from #8 on prelim.

7. Rube Waddell (7-7-5, PHoM 1932). Prime ERA+ 152 second best available.

8. Tommy Bond (8-8-6, PHoM 1929). Huge peak even if you give half of his value to his fielders, which I do.

9. Edd Roush (10-9-11). More comfortable with Edd as the best of the ML CFs, but need to compare him (and them) to Cool Papa.

10. Dick Lundy (15-x). More comfortable with Dick as the best of the prime-career SSs--i.e. behind Jennings and Dobie Moore but ahead of Sewell.

11. Larry Doyle (11-10-8). We're still light on "gloves."

12. Ed Williamson (12-13-9, PHoM 1924). Too bad those 27 HR obscured his real record.

13. Lefty Gomez (new). Best peak/prime ERA+
available.

14. Teddy Lyons (new). Awesome prime of 17 years at 126 ERA+. Compare to Wes Ferrell, 8 years at 128.

15. Cool Papa Bell (new). Not much peak, but hey I loved Max Carey. A valuable skill set. For now, between Suttles and Beckwith. Need to look much more at how he fits within the CF glut. OTOH a nagging sense that maybe he was the black Sam Rice.

Dropped out:

Addie Joss (13-11-13). Drops behind Gomez and Lyons.

John Beckwith (14-15-15). Drops behind Bell for now.

Close:

16-20. Joss, Beckwith, Averill, Cicotte, Sewell.

Required:

Griffith, Ferrell, Rixey about 22-31-36, among about 10 worthy ML pitchers.

PD. Is it fair to say that "adverse incentives" is a theory or rather a hypothesis, certainly not anything that has been proven. Expecially in the sense that we do not know that they were any stronger in the '90s than any other time before Marvin Miller. And if not differentially so, then they really don't exist at all.

I think people are misinterpreting Bill James' comment that Jennings had no business being selected to the HoF.

So being a worse player and manager than Al Dark is a Hall of Famer?

The 1890s is the only period in baseball history when the game ran a salary cap that stuck for a decade and bore a fairly close relation to alternatives elsewhere (if we had a salary cap of say $15 million per annum today it would presumably have no effect, but $2,500 per annum in the 1890s was the equivalent of no more than $75,000 today.) In addition, there was a sharp contraction in 1891-92, and a deep national recession thereafter, making the game appear highly financially unstable.

Leever proves there was an effect; however great it was (and I agree it's fiendishly difficult if not impossible to quantify) it will have applied to the 1890s as to no other era.

Before you come back with the "Leever's curveball improved suddenlty at 25" I would point out that that's what the team's primitive PR operation WOULD say as an excuse for not having signed him at 19.

In a world of expansion, those guys held onto young but promising rookies like grim death -- look at Ed Delahanty, who stumbled around various positions in the field, playing all of them badly, while putting up OPS+ of 72,89,107 (Players League) and 82 in his first 4 seasons, playing full time, being paid close to the league maximum and being snapped up each year. A contracted, financially unstable and salary capped league was both difficult to break into and unattractive if you had other decent options.

So being a worse player and manager than Al Dark is a Hall of Famer?

For our considerations, managing record is irrelevant.

As to Al Dark being a better player than Hughie Jennings

Jennings top 5 OPS+: 152, 149, 146, 135, 125
Dark top 5 OPS+: 117, 114, 113, 110, 100

Any voter with a modicum of concern for peak value will readily see that Alvin Dark was never in Hughie Jennings' class as a hitter.

Moreover, it appears that Dark was actually a bit below average as a fielder, whereas Jennings was brilliant with the glove.

1948 Ballot

1.Charlie Gehringer: This is a purely mechanical ranking.

2.Jud Wilson: I changed my mind, call me a flip-flopper if you want to, but I’ve decided that Wilson’s extra career value outweighs the defensive superiority of Beckwith.

3.Mule Suttles: Ditto.

4.John Beckwith: The best shortstops of the late teens and early 20s might all have been Negro Leaguers. Beckwith may have in some years been the very best, but he had stiff competition from Moore and possibly Wells (though I don’t know whether Wells overlapped or not). When he moved to third, he was still among the best 3Bs.

5.Duffy: Big peak, prime. Reasonably long extended prime and career.

6.Van Haltren: Reconsideration moves him downward just a smidge. Enough peak to keep ahead of the rest of the glut, enough career to keep ahead of the rest of the glut, enough votes to almost be the lifetime votes leader in the HOM’s lengthy history.

7.Burns: All about the peak/prime, yes, but he’s got a longer career than guys like Berger, Wilson, Jennings, etc….

8.Mendez: His peak/prime simply outweighs Lyons’s career in my opinion.

9.Lyons: Clearly superior to Rixey among long-career, low-peak candidates. Can’t wait til Red Ruffing comes along to make a further mess of this group.

10.Rixey: Lyons is just better all the way around than Rixey.

11.Poles: He fits into CF Glut Part 2 with Averill and Roush, behind the Duffy/GVH tier.

12.Averill: Nice prime/extended prime, but lack of career length hurts his case.

13.Roush: Ditto.

14.Leach: If he’d only been at third all along….

15.Jennings: Peak, peak, peak!

New guys:

Bell: I don’t see much of a peak here. I think a long-career Lloyd Waner is a great point of comparison, and while there’s value in the ability to be a very long-term if moderate-leve contributor, it doesn’t mean you’re a HOMer. No matter what all the legends say.

Lloyd Waner: If Bell is a long-career Waner and can’t crack my ballot, imagine the difficulty that Waner, himself, with his actual career length, would have in getting on board.

Larry French: Doesn’t cut the mustard. Wocka, wocka.

Lefty Gomez: Not enough career for me, just as Dean doesn’t have enough for me.

Old guys

Wes Ferrell: Just behind Dobie Moore, about 17th.

Clark Griffith: Off my ballot, I’m not entirely sold on him, which isn’t much of a change for me anyway.

For our considerations, managing record is irrelevant.
As to Al Dark being a better player than Hughie Jennings
Jennings top 5 OPS+: 152, 149, 146, 135, 125
Dark top 5 OPS+: 117, 114, 113, 110, 100
Any voter with a modicum of concern for peak value will readily see that Alvin Dark was never in Hughie Jennings' class as a hitter.
Moreover, it appears that Dark was actually a bit below average as a fielder, whereas Jennings was brilliant with the glove.

I don't think that Dark was better then Jennings ;Bill James does in "what ever happened to the hall of fame"

I don't think that Dark was better then Jennings ;Bill James does in "what ever happened to the hall of fame"

That was before the NBJHBA, yest. He's much more favorable to his cause than he was in 1993.

James also has a very strong timeline. There is not a single position player from the 19th century in the top ten at any position (I believe that Anson is the 11th best 1B). Guys like McPhee, Dahlen, White, etc. are not ranked in places that would convey HOM or HOF worthiness. If a guy like Jennings (or many other 19c players)is ranked at a spot that makes him a likely HOFer by James, it is very likely that they are of that quality without his strong timelining.

I don't think that Dark was better then Jennings ;Bill James does in "what ever happened to the hall of fame.

It's been a decade or so since I've read _Politics of Glory_, so I missed the satire in the Dark v. Jennings comparison.

Sorry about that!

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.


1. CHARLIE GEHRINGER, 2B. .624 OWP. 581 RCAP. 10,237 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. One of the best 2nd basemen ever.

2. JUD WILSON, 3B. . MLE of .431 OBP and .448 SLG over 9,879 PAs put’s Wilson ahead of Beckwith by virtue of longer career. Comp is possibly Wade Boggs.

3. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 164 OPS+ over 7,419 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

4. TED LYONS, P. 286 RSAA, 243 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,162 innings. Somewhat the forgotten man among great 1930’s players.

5. DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 122 OPS+ over 9,684 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense puts him ahead of Sewell. Comp is Joe Cronin.

6. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

7. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for Santop.

8. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

9. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

10. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

11. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

12. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

13. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

14. MULE SUTTLES, LF/1B. MLE of .366 OBP and .538 SLG over 10,163 PAs. After adjusting for parks and eras, I think he’s very close to Ben Taylor offensively, but a little less valuable defensively.

15. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:
NEWBIES:

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

RETURNEES:

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP. 321 RCAP. 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler or Chance due to peak differences.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber. Just off the ballot.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers. Plus, like Willis, we’ve already elected the best pitchers from his era.

1948 ballot:

1. (new) Charlie Gehringer. In 1940, the 37-year-old Gehringer had 101 walks against 17 strikeouts. One of the best-ever plate disclipline records.

2. (new-3) Jud Wilson. Last year, I compared him to George Brett. This year, he's been compared to a more durable Paul Molitor, which is more apt. A clear HoMer.

3. (new) Ted Lyons. He won his first ERA+ title at age 41. A true crafstman who maximized his abilities to earn substantial late-career value.

4. (6-1-3-4) John Beckwith. Where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as roughly comparable to Beckwith for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

5. (new-6-5) Earl Averill. He played centerfield at a high offensive and defensive level for a decade in a strong AL. Mild boost for his final PCL year.

6. (8-5-7-6) Clark Griffith. He adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record is superior to contemporary HoM inductee Joe McGinnity.

7. (7-6-4-7) Edd Roush. His offense in context (five top 5's in OPS+) and his superior defense rank him highly. A weak league keeps him out of the top tier of candidates.

8. (x-11-8-8) Dick Lundy. His career value is a full step above the MLB shortstop glut. Lundy combined exceptional power, speed, and defense, much like Barry Larkin.

9. (12-9-12-10) Jose Mendez. We ignore Mendez, the best pitcher of the early Cuban leagues, when we promote second-tier 1910s MLB pitchers such as Cicotte and Mays.

10. (10-7-9-9) Eppa Rixey. His peak in the mid-1920s has real value, as does his large number of above-average innings pitched in his other seasons.

11. (9-8-10-11) Joe Sewell. His offensive value places him slightly above other MLB infield candidates (Childs, Doyle, Lazzeri, Jennings, Bancroft, Maranville, and Traynor).

12. (new) Cool Papa Bell. He records a high runs/game ratio several times, indicating his ability to earn extra bases with SBs and on hits. Better, IMO, than Max Carey.

13. (4-4-11-x) George Sisler. He is the most difficult player for me to place. One peak year short of a top-200 career. A mild pitching bonus ranks him here.

14. (13-10-13-14) Hugh Duffy. The HoF did right by admitting outstanding defensive CFs Roush and Duffy and excluding average defensive CFs Ryan and Van Haltren.

15. (15-14-15-13) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another peakless/long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines belongs in the Hall of Very Good; Beckley, with added defensive credit at 1B, has a borderline HoM case.

16-20: Suttles, Ferrell, Redding, Schang, Leach.

Gehringer and Bell make my pHoM this year

1. George Sisler finished 4 in the NL in batting average in 1928 (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Charlie Gehringer I have him as the 4th best second baseman ever (I always thought Morgan was way over rated)
3. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
13. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
14. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
15. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
16. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
17. Moose Suttles with I had some antidotal information on him especaly quotes
18. Jud Wilson I don’t think he close to Boggs not that many are
19. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
20. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
21. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
22 Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
23. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
26. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
28. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is in-between 31-35

2. Charlie Gehringer I have him as the 4th best second baseman ever (I always thought Morgan was way over rated)

If Morgan doesn't earn a spot high on your ballot when he's eligible, I swear I will spontaneously combust right on the spot.

:-)

2. Charlie Gehringer I have him as the 4th best second baseman ever

You think that much of Gehringer and you still have him second on your ballot to Sisler? I really don't want to know how you'd compare Sisler to, say, Willie McCovey or Frank Thomas.

I'm gonna go over to Murphy's house, post my 199x ballot with Joe Morgan at #42, just to watch :)

--
If Morgan doesn't earn a spot high on your ballot when he's eligible, I swear I will spontaneously combust right on the spot.

I'm gonna go over to Murphy's house, post my 199x ballot with Joe Morgan at #42, just to watch :)

You think I'm kidding, Tom? Smoke was coming out of my ears reading your post!

:-D

Honestly, I don't see why people are referring to James as some sort of authority figure on this. His rankings in the New Abstract were never defended, as he spent more of his time talking about the players rather than explaining why he had them where he did (with a very few exceptions.) As for the Negro Leagues, James himself admits that he knows comparatively little on the subject, so to say that James had somebody ranked in the X position means no more to me (and probably less) than where people here rank somebody, since they at least usually provide an explanation for their choices.

I don't think many of the voters here are actually deferring to James's rankings in constructing their own. But the NBJBHA is a useful point of reference because James' positional rankings are uniquely comprehensive (and they have a statistical basis that is explained in general, if not in most individual cases), he makes the effort to rank NeL players in his top 100 together with ML players (not something to be found everywhere), and he's a source to which most of the electorate has ready access (as do a large number of sabermetrically-inclined fans in general).

1948 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

And wow, the ballot gets fuller and fuller the next couple of years…..

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Charlie Gehringer {new}
One of the best.
2-Ted Lyons {new}
Towers over the other inning-eating pitchers, Welch and Rixey.
3-Mule Suttles (4) [4]
His MLEs look very good, his career was long, and his rep among those who have previously written much about NeLers was great as well.
4-Clark Griffith (3) [10]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats. I’ve said it so often and in so many ways, I’m getting tired of saying it.

-- the above are clearly over my PHoM line; after this, it’s real fuzzy from 5 through 25 --

5-Joe Sewell (5) [13]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. Not quite Alan Trammell, but beats Dave Concepcion. What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too.
6-Jud Wilson (9) [3]
I make him out to be 40% 3B, 40% 1B, 20% part time or PH duty or DH in the modern game. Edgar Martinez, another great hitter, will be a tough call for the HoM also.
7-Wes Ferrell (6) [7]
Value of at least Rube Waddell, even though they are as different as could be. ERA of 4.04 doesn’t seem impressive...until you compare it to the league/park average ERA of 4.72! When you add in the bat, he’s a very viable candidate.
8-John McGraw (7) [37]
The peak of Hughie Jennings, with a longer prime. Mugsy will be on this ballot for a looonnnnng time.
9-George Van Haltren (10) [14]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Ton of win shares. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s. Would be higher if he was ever the key player on a pennant winner.
10-Cupid Childs (11) [22]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
11-Cool Papa Bell {new}
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Paul Blair with afterburners, Bell comes out as a HoMer. Possible, but maybe not. For now, he lands here.
12-Earl Averill (12) [8]
Add in a bit of credit for his PCL years, and he’s on my ballot. Compared to GVH, hit a teeny bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
13-Roger Bresnahan (14) [24]
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played. Catcher bonus gets him on.
14-Pie Traynor (13) [35]
Fine player. Not as good as Heinie Groh. Fine rep sneaks him on the ballot.
15-John Beckwith (8) [5]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew. But: lots of baggage, a shorter career, and low consensus opinion of NeL experts drags him down a little. What numbers we do have encourage me to at least put him on my ballot.

Required disclosures:
Hughie Jennings [9]
If we had a PEAK HoM, Hughie would be a shoo-in. About #20 on my list.
Eppa Rixey [6]
115 ERA+ , but in front of a good defensive team in the weaker league. Would be elect a guy with a 108ish ERA+? Massive amount of career innings doesn’t quite do it.

Others getting squeezed out
George Sisler
Equal of Chance and Beckley, although they sure are different!
Rube Waddell
Unearned runs, and too many HoM pitchers from his era.
Tommy Leach
Not quite Pie Traynor.
Jake Beckley
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM, though.
Frank Chance
More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Highest WS/yr among any ballot-eligible player by a large margin (>2 WS/yr)! Lots and lots of positive intangibles.
Dizzy Dean
Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Mickey Welch
Rixey clone.

Lefty Gomez - Not quite Dizzy Dean. Not gonna make my top 30.
Redding, Mendez, Monroe, etc. – got too many other NeLers ahead of them.

I agree with Chris's post - "the NBJHA is a useful point of reference". While I posit that our consensus list would/will be better than Bill's, I highly suspect that if any one of us were to put our top 100 up to a comparison with James', the majority opinion would be that his is better. I sure wouldn't claim I can come up with something wiser than Mr. James has developed.

I highly suspect that if any one of us were to put our top 100 up to a comparison with James', the majority opinion would be that his is better. I sure wouldn't claim I can come up with something wiser than Mr. James has developed.

Maybe, but I think in that case the majority opinion would probably be wrong. There are several voters here who I think have a firmer grasp on ranking players than James does. Reading the New Abstract, I didn't get the sense that James was really that interested in the process of ranking. It seemed to me that the rankings were more of an excuse to talk about a lot of players.

I understand that the New Abstract is a point of reference for people, but I honestly don't think any argument should include, as evidence, that James has ranked the player in a particular place. To me it doesn't really say anything.

To use one example, after the last week I'm very confident that most voters here have given a far more thorough assessment of Cool Papa Bell than James would have done.

I'd have to agree with David on NeL players in James. Don't get me wrong--I'm not attacking BJ (although he does get some stuff wrong). He makes it clear that he's not an expert and that he's just "organizing information," as I think he puts it. And it's good that he's making the effort.

But he basically read Riley, some Holway books, a couple of other histories (Rogosin, notably), and some player biographies, and then put his spin on them (and he looked up Roberto Estalella's minor league stats). Any number of people here could do the same thing, and probably have, while preparing for HOM votes. Since we've added systematic analysis, a lot of statistical data BJ didn't have access to, and other information from experts like Gadfly, I really think our appraisals of NeLers (I mean in general, not anybody in particular) are superior to his.

PHOM
Charlie Gehringer
Jud Wilson

1948 Ballot
1.Charlie Gehringer – Clear HOMer. Elected PHOM in 1948
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
3.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
4.Jud Wilson – Better than Beckwith or Suttles. Elected PHOM in 1948
5.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1945.
6.Mule Suttles – Not as high a peak as Beckwith, but a better career.
7.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
8.Ted Lyons – Better peak value and above average value than Rixey
9.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
10.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
11.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
12.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
13.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
15.Edd Roush – Majorly underestimated him. Very good centerfielder.

New Candidates
Cool Papa Bell – Feel I may be underrating him. Comparable to Carey but with a better peak. May move up in future elections.

Lefty Gomez - Couple of good years, but below Dizzy Dean on my ballot

Lloyd Waner - Not even close.

Required Disclosures
Earl Averill - Not far from my ballot
Clark Griffith - As stated before, doesn't fare to well in my system. A bit of an overachiever, though.

<b>Off the ballot
16-20 Moore, Mendez, Redding, Lundy, Grimes
21-25 Schang, Averill, Leach, Sisler, Bell
26-30 Cooper, McGraw, Williamson, Dean, Waddell
31-35 Mays, Taylor, Griffith, Poles, Tiernan
36-40 Bresnahan, Dunlap, Van Haltren, Doyle, Sewell
41-45 Traynor, Chance, Burns, McCormick, Bancroft
46-50 Griffin, F. Jones, H. Wilson, Bond, Berger

1948 Ballot:

1.Charlie Gehringer- A stand-out, particularly in a ballot full of outfielders. Awesome career numbers.

2.Mule Suttles- One of the all time greats. Went into my PHoM last year.

3.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

4.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938.

5.Wes Ferrell- Not sure he’ll ever make our Hall. Solid peak/prime numbers. WARP looks good no matter how you slice it.

6.Jud Wilson- Hard placement… I’m starting to worry that I/we am(are) over-rating him.

7.Earl Averil- Consistent if not exactly mind-blowing career. Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

8.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

9.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS3 = 100, WS5 = 145, over 30 WS/season, Black Ink = 36, Gray Ink = 158.

10.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

11.Kiki Cuyler- Currently my pick for best available RF, which isn’t a real big deal. I keep flip-flopping him and Rice.

12.Sam Rice- Career Win Shares = 327, Career Runs Created = 1467. Seems to jump around in my rankings more than anyone.

13.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career, consistently overlooked due to CF glut.

14.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445.

15.Cool Papa Bell- I admit I was hoping for more from Bell. Always a fan of his- seemed like quite a character. Will continue to review his “case.” One of my favorite nicknames.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

16.Eppa Rixey- Black Ink = 10, Gray Ink = 175. 315 Career Win Shares.

17.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

18.Clark Griffith- I have him as the 5th best eligible pitcher.

19.John Beckwith- I could conceivably have him as high as 13, but that’s about it.

20.Burleigh Grimes- Super Ink scores: Black = 38, Gray = 213, will likely never reach the Hall.

Hughie Jennings is still hanging around #25. I much prefer the careers of Dick Lundy and Joe Sewell.

Thanks!

Interesting coincidence this ballot, in that Cool Papa Bell and Lefty Gomez are newbies. One of the most remarkable things about the HoM process is how much better the old school Yankees were in my head than they were on paper. Rolfe, Gomez, Koenig, Lazzeri. Perhaps Cool Papa was the Yankee of the Negro Leagues...

1 (-)Charlie Gehringer--Best career, peak, and prime on the board. Easy choice for #1

2 (-)Jud Wilson--Originally, had planned to have Cool Papa here, but didn't like who he seemed to resemble. Wilson jumps to the top of the line so that I can elect a Negro Leaguer in Bell's place. Wilson's stats appear to merit the decision, and I believe that Wilson was better than Beckwith/Suttles.

3 (-)Ted Lyons--I loved the comment this week from someone about Lyons being what Rixey's supporters were wishing Rixey to be. Lyons never had an outstanding peak, but that's a hella career.

4 (3)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

5 (4)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

6 (5)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

7 (6)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

8 (7)Joe Sewell
9 (8)John Beckwith--Due to defensive concerns, I'd have a hard time putting him above Sewell. However, a reconsideration of him means he'll probably be on the ballot for awhile.

10 (-)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

11 (9)Mule Suttles--For now, I don't see him ranking higher than Beckwith. I promise to investigate him further in the future.

12 (11)Eddie Cicotte--Career and peak numbers synch up fairly closely to Waddell, but Cicotte lacked the dominance.

13 (12)Burleigh Grimes--Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

14 (10)Donie Bush--Gets extra points for being a top-notch leadoff type.

15 (13)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

Dropping out: Carl Mays, George Burns

Top 10 omissions: Jennings, Griffith, and Averill are all in the next 10 or so, and could conceivably step on at some point, although between Jennings lack of career, Griffith's being behind a ton of pitchers already, and Averill looking similar to half a dozen other outfielders who aren't going to ever get elected, it's doubtful that any of the three will ever make a solid run at my ballot. Rixey lacks the requisite peak to hit my ballot, now and forever.

1. Charlie Gehringer (x, PHOM 1948) - Not as good as Hornsby or Lajoie but better than Frisch, McPhee, Grant, Johnson, and Richardson. It's a pleasure to vote for him this year.

2. Hughie Jennings (3, PHOM 1938) - We currently have a number of near no brain position players on the board in Suttles, Wilson, Gehringer, and Beckwith. At their best none of them were as good as Hughie was at his best and the difference is tangible.

3. Mule Suttles (5, PHOM 1948) - Many will ask why I have Suttles above Beckwith and Wilson. I have a few reasons, take them as you will.
1. Suttles is the HR champ of the NeL
2. Suttles wasn't demonsized/lionized as a bad person
3. Suttles is subjectively praised by contemporaries for his play, Beckwith and Wilson are not. #'s 2 and 3 may be related.
4. Probably because of #3, I am more comfortable with his level of greatness than I am with those of Beckwith and Wilson. They may have been better, but I am sure that Suttles was great. The competition this year is for a spot in my PHOM, so I wanted to make sure I didn't make a mistake here.

4. John Beckwith (7) - Monster hitter who would have spent at least half his career at the hot corner in MLB.

5. Jud Wilson (8) - Still bearish about his defensive value. I actually list him as a 1B, a position I htink he would have played more at than 3B in the Majors. With that in mind, any player with a .420+ OBP over a 15+ year career is a HOMer. I think of hom as Edgar Martinez had the Mariners allowed Edgar to play his career in the field.

6. Wes Ferrell (4) - Most likely not the best pitcher on the board. He is, however, the best PLAYER to have played the position of pitcher on the board.

7. Cupid Childs (6) - Despite sliding down my ballot the past few weeks since he peaked at #2, I still like him as much as ever. The definitely without a doubt HOM line is drawn under Childs for me.

8. Ted Lyons (x) - Eppa Rixey had been this high because I mistook him for Lyons. Pitched a lot of innings and pitched them well.

9. Hugh Duffy (9) - Best of a still impresive list of outfielders remaining on the board.

10. Dick Redding (10) - The 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind Smokey Joe Williams. Threw some historically great cheese.

11a. Bill Terry
11. Clark Griffith (11) - Best 1890's pitcher not in the HOM. 7 pitchers from the 1880's were elected (and with good reason) and only 3 from the 1890's. This is all of long way of saying we should elect Griffith before Welch.

12. Dizzy Dean (12) - The Difference between Dean and Waddell is roughly 500 innings of 5.80 ball according to BP's translated stats. Advantage Diz.

13. Rube Waddell (14) - Great K pitcher and a great character. If we had a Hall of Childlike Minds he would be a unanimous pick.

14. Eppa Rixey (13) - Eppa Rixey (13) - His run in my top ten is most likely over for the time being. I mistook him for a pitcher with great career value. After running Lyons through my system I was less impressed. My mistake.

15. George Van Haltren (15) - Best 'career' candidate on the board, position player division. Unlike guys like Beckley, Cross, Rice, Hooper, and now Bell, GVH had a decent peak/prime as well.

16-20 Moore, Averill, Sisler, Bresnahan, Mendez
21-25 Roush, Willis, Browning, Bell Veach
26-30 Lundy, Monroe, Doyle, Shocker, Berger
31-35 Sewell, Leach, Cravath, R. Thomas, Wilson
36-40 McGraw, Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns
41-45 Taylor, Schang, Ryan, F.Jones, Evers
46-50 Cuyler, Grimes, Konetchy, Joss, C. Jones

Newbies worth mentioning

24. Cool Papa Bell - A lot of career value, best basestealer of his ear, A to A+ defender in CF. He didn't have a great peak, some of his best years (translated) are during the war, and he career OPS+ isn't much better than 100 if it is at all. Kind of a poor man's Max Carey with more career.

xx. Lefty Gomez - I am a peak/prime voter and i don't really see the argument for Gomez, unless you rely heavily on ERA+. I have him below Mays, Cicotte, Joss, and Grimes, out of my Top 50.

Required Disclosures
Beckley was never a great player...
Welch's 300 wins are purely a function of his era...
Sisler is just off my ballot and will get their again if/when we stop getting so many good new candidates.

1948

#1) Charlie Gehringer (--)
Fourth best 2B of all time, or thereabouts.

#2) Jud Wilson (4)
#3) Mule Suttles (5)
#4) Ted Lyons (--)
#5) John Beckwith (3)
Re-evaluated Wilson, Suttles and Beckwith, as I decided I was overestimating Beckwith’s playing time. As such, he falls below Suttles and Wilson, along with newcomer Lyons. But the gap between the four really is infinitesimal.

#6) George Van Haltren (6)
Long career, OPS+ above 120 (sort of a personal benchmark figure for me, the sabermetric equivalent of 2500 hits), and held his own as a pitcher. Gets a small bonus simply due to his versatility in 1888-90.

#7) Edd Roush (7)
Similar to GVH – higher OPS+ but fewer plate appearances due to injuries. Good to see he’s hovering just outside of the top ten, as I think he’s being underrated (then again, there is a bit of an OF glut).

#8) Eppa Rixey (8)
#9) Jake Beckley (9)
Is Rixey the Jake Beckley of pitchers, or is Beckley the Eppa Rixey of first basemen? Neither dominated, but both were above average for an obscenely long time, which I like.

#10) Dick Lundy (10)
I like the suggested +120 OPS better than Sewell’s 109, but that seems to be at odds with his reputation so I’ve dropped him underneath Beckley for now.

#11) Burleigh Grimes (11)
At first glance not as impressive as Rixey, and initially that 107 ERA+ scared me off, but as Kelly from SD pointed out once upon a time, Burleigh Arland was among the top three pitchers in his league six times, and one of the two best five times. Low defensive support, as well, gets him on the ballot.

#12) Wes Ferrell (12)
More peak than career, but the career length's still pretty decent, and combining the 117 ERA+ with his impressive (for a pitcher) hitting gets him on the ballot.

#13) Wally Schang (13)
If Hartnett got elected last year, and Schang has only 800 less PA than he does while posting a 117 OPS+, then I’m thinking I’m not giving him his due.

#14) Clark Griffith (12)
One huge year (1898) and at least five others where I’d say he was an all-star candidate.

#15) Larry Doyle (–)
Back on the ballot as he’s reminiscent of Gehringer, though not as good a fielder. Seriously, that OPS+ is pretty impressive.

Disclosures:

#17) Earl Averill - just off, for now.

#21) George Sisler – not off my radar. An odd career path, but when you look at the overall numbers (9000+ plate appearances, a 124 OPS+) he seems similar to a number of other worthy candidates.

#33) Hughie Jennings – Five years without anything to back it up isn’t going to do it for me. I like a little more longevity in my candidates.

Gomez strikes me as Wes Ferrell without the hitting ability. And if Pie Traynor’s reputation can be severely overstated to the point of exclusion from the HoM, so can Cool Papa Bell’s.

Suttles is subjectively praised by contemporaries for his play, Beckwith and Wilson are not.

I don't think this is true. Beckwith, in particular, was thought to be pretty great by his contemporaries, and Wilson was respected, too. In fact, my sense is that in the 1920s, fans and sportswriters were more impressed by Beckwith and Wilson than they were by Suttles (I can't speak to the 1930s or 40s).

Better get my ballot in before my weekend trip to Kentucky. Gehringer is an easy #1 for me. Nice to see Billy Werber on the list, he was the 1st man to bat in a televised game and has been very accomodating on a couple autograph requests for me. All 20 on my ballot are players I would have in my PHOM.

1. Charlie Gehringer (n/a) - Peak, Career, Consistency. He has everything I need to be considered meritable

2. Mickey Welch (3) - Mickey continues to hang out at the top of my ballot.

3. Jud Wilson (4) - Much better than I originally thought. Dang near good enough for me to put him at #3

4. Wes Ferrell (5) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long enough for me to rank him this high.

5. Burleigh Grimes (6) - Tough debate on whether to have him above Rice or not

6. Mule Suttles (7) - Not overly confident that I have him too high or too low. This seemed like the best spot to slot him for this year

7. Sam Rice (8) - This is the type of consistency that I love

8. Pie Traynor (9) - One of the best 3b ever

9. Earl Averill (10) - Consistency is key for me...what he could have done had he been in the majors sooner...

10. Ted Lyons (n/a) - If he had pitched for some good teams, maybe he'd look more like Maddux

11. Eppa Rixey (11) -I've decided that Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

12. George Sisler (12) - I still believe he should be in the HOM. Even his "bad" years were pretty darn good.

13. Clark Griffith (13) - Same old story for Clark

14. Jake Beckley (14) - Not far off from Sisler.

15. Rube Waddell (15) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

16. Wally Schang (16) - Lots of career value for a catcher. I really wish I could justify having him higher right now. A definate HOM'er in my opinion. Just too many other good players on the ballot right now.

17. Joe Sewell (17) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

18. John Beckwith (18) - Just off of the ballot, but no fault of his own. He'll be back on the ballot again soon enough.

19. Dick Lundy (19) - I have him slotted just slightly worse than Sewell

20. George Van Haltren (20) - At the bottom of my PHOM list, but on it still the same.

Better hurry before the system crashes again. This sure doesn’t get any easier. But at least integration seems to be taking hold, so in 10 or 15 years, I may not have to worry about Major League Equivalencies anymore.

1948 Ballot
1)Charles Leonard Gehringer
An outstanding second baseman. Heck, an outstanding player.
2)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
I can’t bring myself to punish him for the strange shape of his career. His highs are exceptional, and his lows are not so low as to be invisible, like Jennings or Hack Wilson.
3)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I keep trying to knock him off his perch, to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. But he keeps coming out as the best of the current pitching candidates. As you will see shortly, the latest contender failed to dislodge him.
4)George Suttles – “Mule”
I finally had the chance to read over several the discussion pages devoted to Negro League candidates, and Suttles was one of the players I opted to move up in my estimation. I’ll probably look at him again next year to consider his placement compared to Sisler.
5)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
Like everyone else, I spent a lot of time trying to figure out where he should go. Finally, I decided that his long prolific career is the kind I usually reward with a high placement. And the projected Win Shares? Are awesome. Many pointed out similarities to Max Carey, whose candidacy I enthusiastically supported. So I’m going to stump for Bell.
6)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
7)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too. I’m guessing that Beckley gets more votes because he’s been on the ballot longer.
8)Theodore Amar Lyons
The latest contender. If my tabulation is correct, Lyons finished in the top 10 in Win Shares in two seasons. Rixey and Grimes did it thrice. So there goes my theory about Lyons being all career compared to them. I think the stint as a Sunday pitcher made me think the numbers were inflated, but his career comes out very comparable to the other leading pitching candidates.
9)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. And I’ll be rhyming his named with “jewel” until someone decides to correct me.
10)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
I continue to gain respect for Rixey’s career. Since I tend toward career stats, I figure my vote ought to reflect that.
11)Jud Wilson – “Boojum”
Also got moved up after I read the arguments in his favor, although the projections tell me that I’m still ranking him too low. I wish he’d been better loved by the Pittsburgh Courier poll, the SABR poll, and the HOF Veteran’s Committee. If the numbers are to be believed, he’s one of the most underrated players in Negro League history. And he’s got a great name. Will probably move up on my ballot, if he’s not elected this year.
12)Hugh Duffy
I was trying to place Earl Averill, and I found that Duffy came out ahead in the comparison. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.
13)Howard Earl Averill
14)Edd J Roush
Quite similar, which may be why they’re right next to each other in Bill James’ ranking of right fielders. I’m giving Averill a slight edge for a tiny-bit-better prime.
15)John Beckwith
Definitely fourth in the quartet of Negro Leaguers getting all the attention these days. Which still makes him better than a whole lot of players. I have a sneaking suspicion that what I don’t like about Albert Belle is what I don’t like about Beckwith. But he’s still hanging in on my ballot.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Love his peaks. Hate the shortness of his career. I like him more as a candidate than Dizzy Dean, who has outstanding peak. I like Grimes and Rixey, so I guess that tells you where I stand on Wes.
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Hack Wilson has a similar career arc, with a better career, and he’s not here. Basically, the peak is outstanding, but not so much so that it overshadows the fact that the peak is the entire career. Five-year prime is over 70% of career. Ouch.
Clark Calvin Griffith
What can I say: I’ve got six pitchers ahead of him. (Candidates come and go, but there always seem to be six ahead of Griffith.) His is an interesting mix, and my recent re-think has made him look more appealing. But not on-my-ballot appealing.

1948 BALLOT (Gadfly)

Hopefully, there will be some Negro Leaguers elected in 1948 because my ballot is getting very top heavy with them.

1) Ernest (Jud) Wilson, born Feb 1897 [3B]
NL 1922-1945 (20) Best Major League Comp: Pete Rose in another life.
Comments: Wilson was not Beckwith’s equal as a hitter or on defense, but Jud passes the Beck on career length. The question of how long that Wilson would have actually lasted in the Majors is somewhat hard. His career could have ended quickly after his 1937 injury or it could have petered on all the way until 1945 because of World War Two. Although he gets no credit for it, Wilson would have probably, for economic reasons, gotten to the Majors faster if he had been eligible and been a serious threat at 4000 hits. With peak seasons of a .400 BA and 100 walks, I have Jud Wilson peaking at 40 WS and finishing with around 500 WS in a 20-year or so career with 17 seasons (1922-38) as a regular.

2) John Beckwith, born Jan 1900 [3B]
NL 1920-1935 (15) Best Major League Comp: Rogers Hornsby
Comments: Either Beckwith or Oscar Charleston was the best Negro League hitter of the 1920s. However, injuries and his managing career seem to have stopped his playing career in his mid-30s. Beckwith was quite comparable to Rogers Hornsby, only with less speed and even more power. Interestingly, Hornsby also struggled with injuries in his 30s and had his playing career shortened by his managing career. In the Major Leagues, Beckwith would have had many WS seasons in the 40s and ended his career with 450-500 WS, even with his shortened career. Of everyone on this ballot, Beckwith was the far and away the best hitter and would have had the highest peak.

3) Clifford (Gavy) Cravath, born May 1881 [RF]
ML 1908-1919 (09) 202 WS 26.83 (35-29-28-26-26) 149 OPS+ (170-169-157-151-146)
Comments: Cravath had 202 WS in his career, virtually all earned after he was 31-years-old. In 1915, Cravath had his peak season (35 WS) at the advanced age of 34. If he had been born in the East rather than California, Cravath should have been in the Majors by 1903 or 1904 at the latest. Also, if he had not taken up managing in 1919, Cravath would have added on a little more value at the end. In a more perfect world, Cravath would have probably played in the Majors from 1904 to 1921 with many peak seasons in the 30s, a true peak of 40 or so WS, and a career total of from 450 to 500 WS. Also, although he gets no credit for it, Gavy would have also been a much greater hitter in a Power Ball era. In 1919, playing part-time, he hit for a .341 BA, .640 SA, with a 207 OPS+. He actually led the National League in HR, playing less than half a season. Sadly underrated by history.

4) Richard (Dick) Redding, born Apr 1890 [P]
NL 1911-1930 (20) Best Major League Comp: Amos Rusie
Comments: Redding would have won 300 games in Majors easily, averaging well over 20 wins per season from 1911-1923, except for 1913 when he was injured. Redding is quite comparable as a pitcher to Amos Rusie, a great big man who threw extremely hard all the time. However, unlike Rusie, Redding lasted for a full 20-year career. Redding spent the 1920s pitching and managing for Nat Strong’s woeful Brooklyn Royal Giants and was still the team’s ace deep into the decade. Redding would have almost surely racked up at least 400 WS in the Majors, and probably struck out well in excess of 3000 men. Redding was one of the all time great pitchers of the Negro Leagues, sadly forgotten because he died long ago in 1948.

5) James (Cool Papa) Bell, born May 1903 [CF]
NL 1922-1946 (23) Best Major League Comp: Cool Papa Bell was to Max Carey what Paul Waner was to his little brother Lloyd.
Comments: Bell was a superb canter-fielder and world-class base stealer, so his value is much greater than mere offensive statistics (OPS+) can show. The Cool Papa would have cleared 400, probably 500, Win Shares and also 3000, maybe even 4000, hits if he had been allowed to play in the Majors. Of course, in the Majors, Bell would have never been converted into a switch hitter and been an even greater player; but he gets no credit for this. Bell, simply by the length of his career, would have probably accumulated more WS than anyone else on the ballot; but rates under Wilson, Beckwith, Cravath, and Redding because all four had much greater peaks.

6) Charles (Charlie) Gehringer, born May 1903 [2B]
ML 1924-1942 (16) 383 WS 26.71 (37-34-31-30-29) 123 OPS+ (149-143-141-139-139)
Comments: There is not much more than can be said about the Mechanical Man. Gehringer was a great second baseman, although his true greatness as a hitter is somewhat overstated by his era. The one odd thing about Gehringer is his career pattern. He showed a broad based, decade long, increase in his skills and then maintained that value from 1934 to 1938. After good but not great years in 1939 and 1940, Gehringer played in 1941 like he had caught the disease that had killed his near namesake Gehrig at about the same time. The drop-off is so great that you would have to assume that he was injured in some way, but I have never heard that he was.
WS (24-42): 1-0-11-20-23-27-29-10-25-28-37-31-34-30-27-19-20-10-1.

7) Benjamin Rippay AKA Charley Jones, born Apr 1850 [LF]
ML 1875-1888 (10) 161 WS 29.42 (27-24-21-18-18) 150 OPS+ (182-175-166-163-162)
Comments: Jones would have had a much greater career in almost any other time and place. Jones was the 18th Century Babe Ruth and was even nicknamed “Baby’ himself. His career was hurt because he started late, missed two seasons (1881-1882) in his prime due to the mother of all salary disputes, and perhaps retired a little early. His best five years are very impressive when normalized to a 154 game season (39-37-33-31-28); and, of course, this ignores the effects of the late start and the missing years. With a more normal career pattern (playing from say age 22 until age 38), Jones would have peaked at above 40 WS (adjusted) and amassed 450 to 500 career WS (adjusted). Jones is very comparable to Gavy Gravath and is actually quite better without a timeline discount. Like Cravath, Jones would have been an awesome slugger in the lively ball era, but gets no credit for it. The best hitter here besides Beckwith, Jones does not rate even higher because I am ambivalent about crediting him with his early 20s.

8) George (Mule) Suttles, born Mar 1900 [1B]
NL 1923-1944 (19) Best Major League Comp: Hank Greenberg
Comments: Suttles would have hit well over 500, probably 600, home runs in the Majors. But hitting home runs and driving runs in were his only really outstanding attributes (not that there is anything wrong with that). Suttles is quite comparable to Hank Greenberg, although without all of Hank’s career interruptions and his early retirement. Like Greenberg, Suttles played primarily 1B, but with a fair amount of time in LF; and was known as a great clutch and RBI hitter. Chris Cobb’s conversions project Suttles with 353 career WS, but I think that this estimate is quite conservative. Suttles would have probably had somewhere from 425 to 475 WS in the Major Leagues and only gets marked down on defensive value.

9) Richard (Dick) Lundy, born Jul 1898 [SS]
NL 1919-1936 (18) Best Major League Comp: Frankie Frisch (more power/less speed)
Comments: Lundy was a great shortstop for a long period of time, comparable to Frankie Frisch, except that Lundy had more power, less speed, and a much stronger arm. As a shortstop, it is quite probable that Lundy had more defensive value than the Fordham Flash, a 2B. Frisch finished his career with 366 WS, and Lundy would have probably been in that range or even higher, 375 to 400 WS. Like Frisch, Lundy ended his playing career as a manager and the hardest thing about evaluating King Richard is where his lost Major League career would have begun and where it would have ended.

10) Roger Bresnahan, born Jun 1899 [C]
ML 1901-1915 (15) 231 WS 25.88 (29-27-27-23-19) 126 OPS+ (160-146-139-138-136)
Comments: Bresnahan was the best catcher of his time. This being said, it is quite obvious that Bresnahan would have had a much greater career at some other position. Bresnahan first made the Majors as a P, and was the starting CF for the Giants in 1903. He became the Giants’ catcher at the urging of Christy Mathewson for the good of the team. Although he personally invented several devices to keep himself in the line-up as a catcher, Bresnahan had his career severely shortened by the inevitable injuries (and by becoming a manager) anyways. Using the crude system of the Hartnett thread on the years Roger caught, Bresnahan gets a boost of 27 percent to 293 WS with peaks of (37-34-29-27-23). With even more credit for shortening his career by becoming a manager, Bresnahan moves up to about 350 to possibly400 career WS.

11) Howard (Earl) Averill, born May 1902 [CF]
ML 1929-1940 (12) 280 WS 27.17 (33-30-30-27-26) 132 OPS+ (159-149-147-143-137)
Comment: Averill was a very good outfielder whose baseball career started late and then was ended early by injuries. From 1926 to 1928, Averill was a Major League caliber player; he was just playing in the Pacific Coast League. Giving Averill credit for 1926 to 1928 brings him up to 15 years and 340 to 350 career WS. Without the late start, the exploding firecracker, and the back injury, Averill would have had a much more impressive career, with probably in excess of 400 career WS.

12) Edd Roush, born May 1893 [CF]
ML 1914-1931 (18) 314 WS 25.86 (33-33-30-28-23) 126 OPS+ (162-153-149-147-145)
Comment: Roush was a very good outfielder with several monetary related career interruptions, including sitting out the entire 1930 season. Without the interruptions, Roush would have had closer to 350 career WS. Roush also had his career slightly impacted by the First World War. When adjusting for WW1, his five-year peak (36-33-30-28-26) is a little more impressive. Roush, one gets the feeling, was not all that driven to play baseball, playing simply for the money. Although it is ultimately unknowable, it would be interesting to know how good Roush could have been if he was just a little more motivated.

13) William (Bill) Monroe, born 1876 [2B]
NL 1896-1914 (19) Best Major League Comp: Larry Doyle playing good defense.
Comment: Monroe was a great player, quite comparable to Dick Lundy, and much better than Newt Allen. But Monroe is harder to reliably rank than virtually any other player, so the ranking is quite conservative. Indisputably a very good hitter, Larry Doyle is a good comp; but, unlike Doyle, Monroe had a very good defensive reputation. Monroe’s career was ended by his death in early 1915; but he still put in almost 20 years. Monroe could rank higher, but no higher than eighth or ninth.

14) Anthony (Tony) Mullane, born Jan 1859 [P]
ML 1881-1894 (14) 399 WS 29.45 (58-55-46-36-34) 118 ERA+ (159-159-135-134-132)
Comment: Mullane was a very good pitcher for a long time (especially by the standards of his time). In addition to this, Mullane was suspended for the entire 1885 season and for several other periods during his career or he would have had about 450 WS. He is the best remaining nineteenth century pitcher on the board, obviously more deserving than Welch. However, I mark Mullane down for three things: 1) He pitched primarily in the American Association, 2) He was an all-around primadonna jerk quite often, and 3) Win Shares credits 19th Century pitchers for much that is actually team defense. In more modern times, rather than the arm-shredding 1880s, it is quite likely that Mullane would have been able to pitch for 20 years. I think no eligible player with more career WS than Mullane has been left out of the HOF or HOM.

15) George Sisler, born Mar 1893 [1B]
ML 1915-1930 (16) 292 WS 23.02 (33-29-29-27-25) 124 OPS+ (179-169-163-159-153)
Comment: Without the 1923 sinus infection that affected his vision, Sisler would have probably finished with around 400 win shares and been an easy selection to the Hall of Merit. Even with his injury, Sisler has the peak, if not quite the career. Adjusting for World War One, his five-year peak (33-29-29-27-26), like that of Roush, is slightly more impressive. Sisler is the last man on the ballot, but there are many more players who could have been placed here.

Of the new eligible players other than Bell and Gehringer, Ted Lyons is all career (312 WS with probably 350 after WW2 allowance) but very little peak (30-26-24-23-20); and Lefty Gomez is all peak (seasons of 31 and 29 WS) but no career (185 WS).

7) Benjamin Rippay AKA Charley Jones, born Apr 1850 [LF]

This may have come up before, but the "Rippay" alias is intriguing me.

Charley Jones got lost to history due to the fact that his name is so common. Notice his lack of death date at bb-ref. Does this extra alias mean that information of his post-baseball life can be found?

... or maybe I'm thinking this might be a joke that's eluding me at the moment. :-)

1948 ballot, our 51st.
Very swamped at work this week, no time will be freed before the vote deadline, so not too many fresh gems here....


1. CHARLIE GEHRINGER - Looked like maybe a borderline HOMer til his 30s; prime was at age 31-36, top 10 in MVP voting all of those years. Top 10 in runs scored 1927-40, except 1931. Not quite as good as I'd thought; barely makes the No. 1 slot on the ballot due to 2B play.
2. JUD WILSON - Very, very tough call between him and Suttles. I leaned toward the Suttles power package by just a tad, but Wilson seemed to have extra career length, which plays quite favorably to me. In effect, gives me a feeling of a guy who could make it either on the peak OR the longevity tracks.

3. MULE SUTTLES - I do significantly discount for his extremely favorable parks; not as convinced on the 'pitcher's park' data; I don't particularly discount for his defense; but I do factor in the likelihood of his OBP not being dazzling. That's 3 discounts out of 4 options, basically, yet I still see him as third-best on this ballot.
4. TED LYONS - First or second in IP four times. Top 6 in ERA eight times. Blew out his arm in mid-career 1931, and the White Sox had the brains to use him in fewer IP per year thereafter. I can see how some would downplay the value of the innings by more than this, but it's still 4200 IP of 118 ERA+. Works for me.
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - Glad to see further (and more profound) recent analysis of how and why the 1890s are underrepresented. It's remarkable how much better Griffith's W-L was than the teams he pitched for. At least he is getting some fresh looks of late from the academy.
6. EPPA RIXEY - Moving ahead of some colleagues as I review the WW I issue, and flipflops with Jennings. If only he had one huge year. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately, while Rixey sits on the fence. I may have to consider league quality more deeply.
7. JOHN BECKWITH - Passed Sisler and Childs this year. I keep digesting his thread notes and relenting slightly each year, but I'm still not all the way sold on him. A great player for a time and glad to see him get some deserved props, though.
8. GEORGE SISLER - I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
9. JAKE BECKLEY - Moves up four slots this year after further review. Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
10. HUGHIE JENNINGS - Drops three slots. One solid season short of an "elect me" slot on my ballot, but the best player in baseball nods and the difficulty of the era have him back in the running for me. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
11. CUPID CHILDS - Continues to hang in there. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot.
12. WES FERRELL - 117 ERA+ not dazzling, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Significant hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player. Do Caruthers voters tend to favor him more?
13. COOL PAPA BELL - We're wise to realize the results don't match the rep, but great fielder-long career-decent hitter is quite valuable. May move up next 'year.'
14. MICKEY WELCH - If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the old Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
15. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'


JUST MISSED
EDD ROUSH - Drops off for a year. I have a problem with the games he missed in a lot of years, but his D and high level of play combined with career length gives Roush the nod. I wonder if Roush will be a barrier to a lot of Berger-Averill types. Or maybe Sheckard makes people look more favorably on the group.
DICK LUNDY - He really does present a problem for Sewell, doesn't he? I think Sewell needed to be a slightly better fielder and Lundy needs a tiny bit more evidence.
JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them.
EARL AVERILL - I guess he can beat out Roush with a significant minor-league credit, and I'll continue to weigh both. Doesn't quite match Berger's monster year, but otherwise generally a slightly better player for slightly longer.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough.
PETE BROWNING - Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time.
WALLY SCHANG - Might have squeezed on if I had time for another look this time around.

1948 ballot.
1. Charlie Gehringer (new) He's good.
2. Jud "Boojum" Wilson (----, 3) Appears to combine the better offensive features of Boggs and Brett; probably not the defensive equal of either of them.
3. Joe Sewell (5, 5, 2, 4, 3) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.
4. John Beckwith (7, 6, 3, 5, 5) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit.
5. Larry Doyle (6, 7, 4, 6, 6) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
6. Ted Lyons (new) He had a fairly conventional looking prime as a good pitcher. In my equivalent records, that's three consecutive years of 18-11, 19-12, 22-12. At the age of 30 he had a bad (hurt?) year. If you total up his record through that year, I get an equivalent record of 122-99, which is the record you'd get with an RA+ of 111. Then came his second career, starting at age 31 and lasting until age 41 (and the war). In those 11 years, I get an equivalent record of 135-101, which would match an RA+ of 115. Many good pitchers had an extended twilight of < 200 IP per year, and many pitchers were effective doing that - but of all of them, Lyons was the best.
7. George "Mule" Suttles (---, 3, 7) Was he Willie Stargell? Willie McCovey (only shorter)? Or someone else entirely?
8. George Van Haltren (3, 3, 5, 7, 8) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
9. Eppa Rixey (8, 8, 6, 8, 9) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
10. Wes Ferrell (-, 11, 7, 9, 10) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
11. Earl Averill (---, 10, 11) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
12. Jake Beckley (10, 9, 9, 11, 12) Not much peak, long career.
13. Cupid Childs (11, 12, 10, 12, 13) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
14. Hugh Duffy (12, 13, 11, 13, 14) 42nd year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
15. Cool Papa Bell (new) I don't know if I can justify putting him here, but it's hard to let go of a legend. One of a handful of candidates for fastest player ever. Of course, Willie Wilson is on that list, too. Having him switch hit seems to have been as bad an idea as having Mariano Duncan or U.L. Washington switch-hit, and for the same reason - it killed his power.
16. Edd Roush (13, 14, 12, 14, 15) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey. He'll make it back to my ballot.
17. George Sisler (14, 15, 13, 15, 16) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
18. Pie Traynor (15, 16, 14, 16, 17) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy.
19. Frank Chance (18, 19, 15, 17, 18) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
20. Rube Waddell (16, 17, 16, 18, 19) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
21. Jose Mendez (17, 18, 17, 19, 20)
22. Roger Bresnahan (19, 20, 18, 20, 21) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
23. Dizzy Dean (---, 21, 22) A peak monster, but it's not enough.
24. Dick Redding (21, 23, 21, 24, 25)
25. Jimmy Ryan (20, 22, 20, 23, 24)

Jennings is in the top 30 but not the top 25; so is Cuyler. Griffith suffers from lack of IP.

Lefty Gomez: Terrific peak, with the best years separated from each other. Not enough career. When Ron Guidry becomes eligible, remind me to run that comparison.

1.Jud Wilson
2.Charlie Gehringer

I mean no disrespect to Gehringer, who is an obvious first-ballot selection. However, Wilson’s projected career value (378 WS) is similar to Gehringer’s (383 WS). Even with his time at first base, in 1948 Wilson has a strong claim to the best career by any third baseman, and only Frank Baker has a better peak. Gehringer, while one of the greats at his position, is not in the same class as Collins, Lajoie, or Hornsby.

3.Mule Suttles
4.Jake Beckley

OK, Suttles wasn’t quite the hitter that Stargell was. Still, their skill sets were similar, and their projected WS totals are comparable: 370 WS/21 years for Stargell, 353 WS/19 years for Suttles (Suttles WS are based on old MLE’s; the new MLE’s should give him even more WS). So call Suttles Willie-Stargell-lite (did somebody else use that? Sorry for plagiarizing...). That’s still good enough for a high ranking.

Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher.

5.Eppa Rixey
6.Ted Lyons
7.Clark Griffith

Rixey’s career W-L was 266-251, Lyons was 262-230; at a glance, it seems Rixey’s teams were better, but I haven’t checked yet, and I could easily be wrong. Rixey has the edge in IP, but it was easier to get batters’ out in the teens than in the thirties. Both could have war credit, but Lyons was in his 40s, while Rixey was 27 the year he missed. Lyons has a higher peak, but was only starting 20 games in his best seasons; Rixey looks more impressive as a full-time starter. I’ll give Rixey the edge, but they’re damn close.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

8.Tommy Leach
9.Earl Averill

There seems to be a little backlash against Leach, which I don’t quite understand. Leach a) played great defense at two key positions b) was a pretty good hitter in a pitcher friendly era, with six seasons over 122 OPS+ c) has 324 Win Shares; we’ve elected every position player with more except Van Haltren d) Was a productive player every season from 1901-1914 (with the exception of the 1911 season) e) has a peak, with seasons of 31 and 29 WS. He’s a much better pick than, say, Joe Sewell or Pie Traynor.

Averill wasn’t quite the hitter that Sisler was, but he had considerably more defensive value, particularly if you give him credit for one or two PCL seasons.

10.John Beckwith
11.George Sisler
12.Rube Waddell

I’ve moved Beckwith down a few spots, for reasons that others have mentioned: relatively short career for the NeL, unsavory reputation, and questions about his defense. OTOH, baseball history is not exactly littered with .330 hitters who could also crush the ball out of the park while playing SS/3B. I still think Beckwith should be in the Hall.

At age 29, Sisler would have seemed to be a lock for the HoM. He had a great run from 1917-1922, hitting .407 and .420 in a couple of seasons, and was first or second in stolen bases every year for five years. He also played at a position which had not seen a dominant star since the 1890s.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

13.Ned Williamson
14.Hugh Jennings
15.Cupid Childs

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. Besides timelining, I don’t see how you can have Pie Traynor above Williamson. I have Jennings ahead of Childs; Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.

23. Wes Ferrell Ferrell and Mickey Welch are the players that I find the toughest to gauge. Traditional stats and Win Shares see Ferrell as essentially the same type of player as Carl Mays (to be fair, James has Mays at #38 and Ferrell at #40, well within HoM range). WARP sees Ferrell as something more special, but I don’t trust WARP. The era during which he pitched, plus the value of his hitting, does suggest that he could be underrated, but right now Ferrell will continue to hang just off my ballot.

DavidFoss:
7) Benjamin Rippay AKA Charley Jones, born Apr 1850 [LF]

Charley Jones got lost to history due to the fact that his name is so common. Notice his lack of death date at bb-ref. Does this extra alias mean that information of his post-baseball life can be found?
Benjamin Rippay (or Rippy) was his birth name. He took his new name from a relative who helped raise him. As for his post-ML life, we know he played for the independent Metropolitan club in 1889 (likely he couldn't find a ML job) and was later a NYC election inspector. He is currently believed to have died circa 1911-13.

What never seems to be mentioned here is that his salary dispute was just the last straw which caused his blacklisting. The main problem was his drinking, which got him in trouble in the AA, too.

1948 ballot.

1. Charlie Gehringer Top 5 2B to date: E. Collins, Hornsby, Lajoie, Gehringer, Frisch.

2. Wally Schang In context, one of the greatest offensive catchers ever. Depending on where you draw the line on catchers and how strong you think that AL was during his time, could be seen as anywhere from sub-ballot to one of the biggest oversights of the HoF.

3. Ted Lyons Unless there's a fatal flaw I'm not aware of, looks clearly above the in/out line. Rixeyish career length with more great seasons.

4. Joe Sewell Dominant major league SS by so much during his prime that he would be in the top half of my PHoM. Has already been bested by Vaughan and Cronin.

5. Earl Averill Close to the average of Elmer Flick and Frank Baker. While career shortness didn't keep Flick or Baker from being elected quickly, competition is tougher now, so Averill has a long road ahead of him.

6. Mule Suttles It's the home runs. According to Holway, among top 5 in league HR 12 or 13 times. Is being among the top 5 in one the "major" Negro Leagues during the Golden Age like being among the top 10 in a typical major league season? Major league players who were among the top 10 in league HR 13 times: Crawford, Foxx, R. Jackson, Killebrew, Mantle and Schmidt. Were his HR totals distorted by park effects? Park and perhaps league effects did give him a boost while he played in St. Louis, but he also hit HR in the double digits in Birmingham, Baltimore, Chicago, and Newark. Everything suggests that his great home run power was for real.

7. Lefty Gomez The 2 Cy-Young type seasons plus the remainder of his prime, where he alternated with Ruffing as the ace of the Yankees dynasty during the 1930s, helps puts him on my ballot. I base my pitcher ratings on ERA+ and career length and give big year bonuses. Why not Dean? Fair or not, in my system, the difference between 2000 and 2500 innings in the period does a lot to substantiate a pitcher's career. The relative shortness of Gomez's career and the contradictions in his record make this rating more "fragile" than most.

8. Jose Mendez His domination of the Cuban leagues and total run average title in his full NEL season may indicate a HOM-worthy peak, with all of the uncertainties involved.

9. Jud Wilson I'm as conservative as you-know-who in voting for NELers, so consider this a strong endorsement. Highest career BA among NELers with 2000+ documented AB, according to Holway.

10. Sam Rice I think his league-adjusted career value puts him in HoM territory, though I can see why there's not a lot of love for single-hitting right fielders.

11. Wes Ferrell Great prime, small bonus for hitting. Hurt from a HoF perspective by pitching in such a hitter's era.

12. Roger Bresnahan Top catcher of the 19-aughts, consistently all-star quality in his prime.

13. Buddy Myer It seems like I'm more likely to vote for borderline 2/4/5/6 infielders than the consensus. I've had Schalk and Traynor, and now Myer on the bottom of my ballot, and Schang and Sewell are still near the top.

14. Eppa Rixey Helped by a little war credit. Among longest careers in equivalent years. Enough quality to make by ballot despite my hefty NL discounts.

15. Heine Manush Most similar players: borderline OFs George Gore, Joe Kelley, Sherry Magee, Willie Keeler. Don't like the excess of corner outfielders in the HoM, but can't penalize Manush for that.


Cool Papa Bell Long-career outfielder with speed. Reminds me a little of Max Carey (who never made my ballot). That being said, I don't think that he was a terrible choice for the HoF, but his ranking among the greatest of the great is open to debate.

No matter how I slice it, I see other contemporary candidates as superior to Beckwith : Stearnes and Suttles as hitters, Wilson as a 3B, Wells as a SS, Mackey as a hitter in the toughest defensive position. Even if Beckwith qualifies for the "high-peak SS" category, I would give the nod to Lundy instead.

Jennings, Griffith , and Beckley were excellent players. I'd go with Beckley, Jennings and Griffith in that order. My philosophy, however, is that number of HoMers per decade should double roughly every 60 years (a compromise between the rate of increase in the number of major league teams over the years and the rate of population increase). In other words, the remaining 1890s players have been timelined away.

I sympathize with <b> Sisler's <\b> case. Unlike some other candidates whose ML careers were derailed by injury or being stuck in the minors, Sisler was almost certainly on target for a HoM career before his injury. Still, I have to go by what he accomplished, and his peak wasn't quite dominant or long enough for me.

1948 Ballot

1. (new) Charlie Gehringer. Would be an easy choice if he had been an outfielder or corner infielder instead of a second baseman.

2. (4) Jud Wilson. The projections and comps that have been offered for him (.431 OBA!) put him comfortably above the HoM in/out line. Last week I had him just behind Beckwith, but I’m no longer convinced Beckwith’s peak outweighs Wilson’s longer career.

3. (3) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B. Shorter career than Wilson or Suttles, but arguably a better hitter and fielder. If I were convinced he was an exceptional fielder, I’d move him back above Wilson, but I don’t see much to support that. Also I don’t know what to make of his reputation, but I am not inclined to mark him down for character issues.

4. (new) Ted Lyons. The 1923 and 1924 White Sox had two switch hitters on their roster—Ted Lyons and Red Faber. I’ve had Rixey on my ballot every year, and I think Lyons was better.

5. (6) Hugh Duffy. His season-adjusted peak/prime Win Shares over 3, 5, 7, 10 years are better than similar candidates Averill, Roush and Burns and other ballot-eligible OFs. WARP3 is not as kind, but still shows a considerable peak over 8 years. He also has good black and gray ink, A+ CF/OF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Docked slightly for only playing 40% of his games in CF.

6. (6) George Van Haltren. As a career candidate, he isn’t helped by playing so many 132 game seasons, but he was a very good player for a very long time. Adjusting his career to 162 game seasons he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him some credit.

7. (7) Clark Griffith. It’s hard to point at one statistical measurement that argues for his elect, but the totality of the available evidence presents a compelling case. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His peak level of performance between 1895-1901 was significant.

8. (8) Mule Suttles. The ML projections we have (.301/.364/.537) wouldn’t seem to put him in the elite hitter category of first basemen, but he played forever and was clearly a formidable slugger. By reputation I would have him above Beckwith and Wilson, but he doesn’t have their defensive value and I am not sure he was a better hitter.

9. (9) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

10. (10) Larry Doyle. Higher career OPS+ (126) than Gehringer and all but a handful of 2B. Missing Gehringer’s fielding ability and career length, though I am not convinced his fielding was the disaster WARP shows it to have been. The contemporary accounts I’ve read suggest that his fielding ability was a subject of debate, though the conclusions writers drew varied considerably. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star.

11. (11) Earl Averill. WARP3 shows him with the best 10 year prime of any eligible OF; my adjWS calculation shows him with 3, 5, 7, 10 WS figures almost identical to those of Van Haltren, which is maybe more of an argument for GVH than against Averill. As has been stated by several others, WARP/WS disagree about his defense. With some PCL credit, I am comfortable placing him here on the ballot, but I’m not sure he’ll ever move much higher.

12. (12) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak and a relatively short career, though I’m willing to make some allowance for era on this. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

13. (13) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career begins to look long enough HoM worthy to me and moves him ahead of Jennings as my highest-rated eligible SS. Moore’s peak seems comparable not only to Hughie, but to the 3 NeL players above him on this ballot.

14. (14) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

15. (new) Cool Papa Bell. His legendary status alone gets him on my ballot, though it is hard for me to see him ever moving him up based on the information currently available. In his favor are his fielding, his speed, and his career length, but was he better than other eligible long career OF candidates like Van Haltren or Harry Hooper?

Next 5:
16. George J. Burns
17. George Sisler
18. Edd Roush
19. Wes Ferrell
20. Tommy Leach

Required disclosures:
Ferrell, Jennings. Both are just off the ballot. (I have Jennings at 21.) I have nothing bad to say about either player, but there is a lot of competition for the top 15 spots.

1.Gehringer Easy #1. 4th best 2B to date.
2.Wilson, J. OK, I'm convinced. Boojum ahead of Suttles and Beckwith.
3.Suttles By NHBA rankings would be the 17th best player in the HoM if he were to make it this year.
4.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
5.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
6.Wilson, J. Is he really better than Suttles or Beckwith?
7.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939. 4th in his era in Pennants Added.
8.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. Glad to see him on John’s ballot.
9.Leach PHoM 1926.
10.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
11.Averill 2nd in 10-year peak.
12.W. Cooper Pennants added likes him, but it looks like I am the only voter to recognize his greatness L PHoM 1942.
13. Mays Pennants added likes him. I like these guys better than Vance or Faber.
14.Ferrell 1st appearance on my ballot, admittedly overdue.
15.Roush PHoM 1942.
16.Lyons
17.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
18.Lundy Only Biz Mackey fared better in the Cool Papa’s survey.
19.Bell We must be underrating this guy.
20.Burns,GJ
21.Sisler
22.Berger
23.Redding
24.Sewell
25.Dean

1948 Ballot:

While this year’s class is not quite as dominating as the last two, it includes three strong new candidates, so the backlog continues to get crowded out.

1. Wes Ferrell –
According to my system, this year’s top 3 candidates are very close—none of them “Definition A” candidates, but all near the top of the “Definition B” range. I see Ferrell as the fourth best pitcher of the 1920-43 era (behind Grove, Paige, and Hubbell), which is good enough to place # 1 on this year’s ballot.

2. Jud Wilson –
While I appreciate and use Chris’s MLEs and WS estimates, it is my opinion that they are a tad too conservative. A modest upward adjustment is enough to lift Boojum ahead of the Mechanical Man.

3. Charlie Gehringer –
A fine, fine player; would have been an easy number one in many recent elections.

4. Mule Suttles –
How many home runs might he have hit in the majors? In the Negro Leagues, Suttles hit 40 HR/550 AB, so a conservative MLE rate might be 32/550. If we apply that to Chris’s estimate of about 9200 AB, we’re looking at approximately 535 career HR. If he had finished ahead of Foxx (who had 534), Suttles would have ranked second on the all time list when he retired, where he would have remained until Mantle/Killebrew/Mays/Aaron passed him in the 1960s. (That’s assuming, of course, that Charleston or Gibson didn’t finish their careers with even more.)

5. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL.

6. Dizzy Dean –
Had one of the best 5-year pitching peaks of the live ball era; I see his HoM case as virtually identical to that of Jennings.

7. Ted Lyons –
I think the baseball writers got these two in the right order, electing Dean in 1953 and Lyons two years later.

8. Hughie Jennings –
One of the greatest defensive shortstops in history, and for five seasons his offense was superb too. I’d like to see the HoM honor a few of the sprinters as well as the distance runners.

9. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

10. John Beckwith –
I continue to nudge him upward as I learn more about him. Almost certainly the best hitter on the ballot.

11. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

12. José de la Caridad Méndez –
I made the case for Méndez in a recent post on his ballot thread.

13. Roger Bresnahan –
The greatest major league catcher of the deadball era.

14. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

15. Buzz Arlett –
For the 14 seasons he spent as an outfielder, I see him as about halfway between Heilmann and Hack Wilson – he hit for average and for power and drew walks. Throw in a couple of seasons as a very good pitcher, and he’s ballot worthy. His fielding wasn’t so bad as to negate all of that.

16. Clark Griffith –
I feel that all of my top 20 are really HoM-worthy. In the 1930s voting for 15 candidates was plenty, but now I wish I could vote for 20.

17. Cool Papa Bell –
The consensus seems to see Bell as similar to Carey, whom I would rank # 21 if he were still eligible. (Just shows how the quality of the candidate pool has improved; while Carey was eligible I generally had him ranked 10-12.) Factors that could push Bell higher include a) high rate of runs scored, suggesting unusual effectiveness in his leadoff role, b) success of his teams, and c) credit for success as a pitcher early in Bell’s career (thanks to Gary A for pointing this one out).

18. George Burns

19. Urban Shocker

20. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals:

I’ve ranked Lefty Gomez at # 40. He had a couple of great years, but didn’t match the peak of Dean or the prime of Lyons. Lloyd Waner didn’t make my top 65, though I do see him as better than his fellow HoFers Combs and Hafey.

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
Ranked # 27. During their primes, Grimes was better.

danb: defective ballot. You voted for J. Wilson twice. That's not one where we can read your mind - it needs fixing.

danb: defective ballot. You voted for J. Wilson twice. That's not one where we can read your mind - it needs fixing.

I agree with OCF, but only one post would have been sufficient to get the message across. :-)

I had better vote before I forget.

Last 'year' brought integrated baseball as Jackie Robinson won the first ROY award. Larry Doby followed in the AL and after a rough start appears raring to go in 1948. The WS title came back to the bronx after a wartime break and they have a promising young catcher who's looking to pick up some of the slack from an aging roster. Ted Williams won his second triple crown with just 32 HR and 114 RBI. India/Pakistan gain independence with Israel looking to follow this coming year.

1948 Ballot

1. Charlie Gehringer (ne) -- Long career, high peak, middle infield. Top of the ballot.
2. Jud Wilson (ne-3) -- Underrated NeL great. High batting averages with plate discipline at the hot corner.
3. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4-4-4-2-5-4-2-3-4) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago.
4. Clark Griffith (15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14-13-8-4-7-5-3-4-5) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
5. John Beckwith (12-8-6-4-5-6) Convinced he's ballot-worthy by recent analysis and re-analysis. He was certainly a good hitter. Career length and true defensive position are my main concerns with him.
6. Larry Doyle (14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2-3-3-1-4-7-6-7-8) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
7. Cupid Childs (15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6-6-5-3-6-8-7-8-9) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
8. Mule Suttles (ne-6-7) -- I think Beckwith and JWilson were a bit better.
9. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8-9-10-7-12-12-10-9-10) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Wes Ferrell (ne-13-11-10-11) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
11. Ted Lyons (ne) -- Long career. Solid rate stats. I like him better than Rixey.
12. Joe Sewell (ne-12-14-15-14-14-15-12-11-12) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.
13. Earl Averill (ne-12-13) -- Hard guy to judge. Solid ten year prime, but not much else. The best white CF between Cobb/Speaker & Dimaggio, but I don't feel he has the dominance that a short-career outfielder should. Credit for an extra PCL season helps. He's making the ballot which is a credit to him as I tend to be tough on non-shoo-in outfielders
14. Charley Jones (13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3-7-6-5-9-10-8-13-14) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
15. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-11-9-14-15) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keepin him out of the HOM so far...

Omissions -- Rixey -- I did like him better than Faber, but not as much as Lyons or Ferrell.

Opening Day! (Of course, I was watching, um, something else tonight. Hey, I'm a Mets fan, give me a break.) Gehringer and Wilson make my PHoM this year.

1. Charlie Gehringer (new) Great player, obvious HoMer, well ahead of all the Major Leaguers on the ballot. I suppose you could make an argument for putting Wilson ahead of him, but I'm not going to be the one to do it.

2. Jud Wilson (3) Excellent hitter, played for some of the great teams, his fielding was apparently adequate. He obviously had a temper, should he be penalized for it? And, given that according to Gadfly he was 40 years old in 1937, yeah, that would have been the end of his career. Does seem to be a more complete player than Suttles or Beckwith. Scary-looking dude.

3. Mule Suttles (4) Going this high in part based on reputation, and also because I'm not totally convinced about anyone below him on the ballot. HR's aren't the be-all and end-all, but they make him look like the 2nd best power hitter in Negro League history, which sounds like a HoMer to me.

4. Tommy Leach (5) I think I've said before, I have a weakness for what I see as "complete players", without a strong weakness in their argument, and Leach is that way to me. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. Has more WS than Beckwith's translated estimates in a career of very similar length. Made my PHoM in 1940.

5. John Beckwith (6) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around, not an extremely long career compared to the other Negro League candidates.

6. Wes Ferrell (7) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Until he's inducted, the Dean/Gomez argument really isn't interesting me that much.

7. Bill Monroe (8) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Seems to have had a longer career than any of the other non-Gehringer 2B candidates. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Ted Lyons (new) Actually was ahead of Ferrell in my pitcher system, but I think that's affected by his odd career shape, so I'm keeping Wes ahead. KJOK's SN W-L records (on the Yahoo site) think he's the shiz-nit.

9. Joe Sewell (9) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

10. Cupid Childs (10) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri. Made my HoM in 1932.

11. Dick Redding (11) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers. I do think he's better than Mendez, but it's not an unshakable conviction.

12. Earl Averill (12) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead.

13. George Van Haltren (13) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(13A Max Carey)

14. Jimmy Ryan (14) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(14A Bill Terry, 14B Sam Thompson)

15. Dick Lundy (15) I agree, the MLE’s look very similar to Sewell, with a bit less peak, so he’s a little lower. There were a lot of good SS in the Negro Leagues.

16. Eppa Rixey (15) I might be underestimating him, and he did throw a ton of innings, but I still see him behind Lyons and Ferrell. I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era.
17. Cool Papa Bell (new) On first look, he's a step back from the CF glut, but not too much behind. Somewhat overrated, but a legendary player.
18. Jose Mendez (17) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.
(18A Rube Foster)
19. Spotswood Poles (18) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good.
20. Ben Taylor (20) Maybe I'm underrating 1Bmen, but I'm not yet convinced. A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
21. Hughie Jennings (19) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.
22. Tony Lazzeri (21) Looks pretty close to Childs for me, although the Pennants Added could change that. Didn't think he'd be this high.
23. Rube Waddell (22) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
24. Jake Beckley. (23) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
25. Bobby Veach (24) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
26. Dave Bancroft (25) Looking at how their Win Shares compared to the rest of their leagues, Sewell does have an edge, but it's not a huge one. Wins the award for "Best Frankie Frisch Selection".
27. Dizzy Dean (26) Similar to Ferrell, but significantly behind. I'm not upset he's in the Hall of Fame, but he doesn't belong here.
28. Mike Griffin (27) I liked Joe's argument, he's very closer to GVH and Ryan in WARP in significantly fewer games, so he was packing a bigger punch.
29. Burleigh Grimes (28) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, closer to Rixey and Faber than I previsously thought.
30. George Sisler (29) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years. Haven't looked at new WARP yet (still true, it's tax season).

36. Clark Griffith (35) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.

oops - Delete the #6 listing and move everybody below up 1.

1948 and a Tiger at the top. Is he available to play today?

1. Charlie Gehringer (-). Lots of offense for a middle infielder.

2. Edd Roush (4). Holdouts have cost him election so far.

3. Ted Lyons (-). I'm not being conservative with the first ballot. Rixey with more peak is a fair analysis.

4. Hugh Duffy (5). Even minor revisions in my system can lead to jumps when dealing with the backlog. Duffy benefits this time around. Excellent hitter with a peak in contracted, albeit high offense 1890’s. His fielding doesn’t hurt either.

5. Clark Griffith (7). My run on the 1890s continues…

6. Rube Waddell (3). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

7. Jimmy Ryan (6). Let's see: good hitting CF, longish career, decent fielder. Yep, I like that combo.

8. Dick Redding (8). Somewhere in the Waddell/Griffith mix.

9. Tommy Leach (9). Career length, versatility, defensive excellence. Probably better than what people thought during his playing career.

10. John Beckwith (10). Character issues shouldn't be his downfall. How you did between the white lines, that's what matters.

11. Tony Mullane (-). He's back. He was the next guy from the 1880's for me, not Welch. There was some things that held him out of baseball or his totals would have been better.

12. Jud Wilson (11). I don’t want to be too dazzled by the things said in the JW thread. Still, looks to have hit for average, little bit of pop, fielded his position adequately. Little suspicious of career length – would he have played in the majors, or at a major league level, after getting hurt?

13. Pete Browning (12). Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

14. Hughie Jennings (14). SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, a short stretch where it can be argued he was a MVP type. Master of the hit by pitch – taking one for the team!

15. Eppa Rixey (15). Winningest LHP before some guy named Spahn replaced him. You look at the number of innings pitched and it’s a bunch. But consider: Missed 1918 and part of 1919 due to WWI. 1912 he goes directly from college at UVa to the majors – no small trick since few did it. So he’s probably major league quality at that time and misses out on some innings. In 1913 his season starts late since he returned to UVa to finish some schooling. When adding these non-injury breaks to his playing totals you have a guy with close to 5000 IPs. Wow.

In contention:
16. Earl Averill
17. George Van Haltren
18. Moose Suttles
19. John McGraw
20. Spotswood Poles
21. Cupid Childs
22. Jake Beckley
23. Wes Ferrell
24. George Sisler
25. Kiki Cuyler
26. Mike Griffin
27. Joe Sewell
28. Tony Mullane
29. Frank Chance
30. Vic Willis

Newcomers/Needed explanations:

Everyone from the top 10 returnees last year (Suttles, Ferrell, Averill, Beckley, Sisler) are in my top 30 if not on the ballot. I have no major qualms with them, just like less than others. Some of them should show up again when we go to 3 electees in later years.

1948 Ballot

1-Charlie Gehringer 383 WS
No brainer to me. Comp is Frisch.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

3-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

4-Mule Suttles
Great Negro Leaguer from same era as Stearnes. Just a notch below Turkey.

5-Jud Wilson
Reading the discussion and researching Negro league histories made me appreciate Jud. I didn’t realized until recently that some observers considered him the best hitter in Negro League history.

6-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

7-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

10-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

11-John Beckwith
Read somewhere he once hit four HRs in a game at Crosley Field. Played for at least 13 teams. Read a lot about how he was a nasty guy…but he did manage for awhile…some boss didn’t think he was all bad.

12-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

13-Earl Averill 280 WS
He’s penalized some by a short career. Earl gave Indians fans something to cheer about until Bob Feller came along.

14-Wes Ferrell 233 WS
6-20 win seasons in 8 years during the live ball era. Wes is usually short changed because of his high ERA but it’s an unfair when compared to dead ball counterparts.

15-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

Only 37 ballots so far.

Missing ballots from: robc, PhillyBooster, jwinfrey, Patrick W, Sean Gilman, Don F, Jeff M, Dan G, mbd1mbd1, Esteban Rivera, Joe Dimino, Michael Bass, Buddha, Guapo, Tiboreau, jimd, Max Parkinson, Mike Webber, RMc, Bleacher, Eric Enders, Flaxseed and Stephen.

1) Charlie Gehringer: The Mechanical Man. Top 5 second baseman of all-time and definite first ballot HOFmer.

2) Sisler: Still underrated.

3) Waddell: Still love the K's and the ERA+. Dominating pitcher with a dimestore discount head. He'll never make it, but I'll keep voting for him anyway.

4) Jud Wilson: Seems a good place to start for him. Thinking about moving him up, but I like Waddell's dominance too much.

5) Duffy: What a peak.

6) Lyons: Just a notch above Welch. Not as many innings or wins, but played in a different era. Almost always one of the top 10 starters in the League, usually one of the top 5 starters. Pitched forever and a day (And I guess that extra day would be Sunday). If he were on a decent team he would have over 300 wins. Don't like the lack of K's.

7) Welch: We need more pitchers to go in. 300 wins is nothing to sneeze at. Neither is 500 innings pitched in one season. Seems to be almost on the level of his contemporaries who have made it.

8) Suttles: Still seems about right.

9) Averill: Career was too short to be any higher but too good to be much lower.

10) Traynor: Moving the third baseman up the ladder.

11) Beckwith: Moving up with Traynor.

12) Beckley: I have trouble placing Beckley. Never seemed to be in the upper-elite when he played, but he played for so long at a high enough level where I feel he deserves consideration.

13) Sewell: Great contact hitter. Like Beckley, he never seemed to be among the ultra-elite. However, unlike Beckly, he didn't stick around for almost 20 years BUT he did play a superb shortstop.

14) Van Haltren: Duffy without the monster peak.

15) Lefty Gomez: More impressive to me than Ferrell.


Near misses: Ferrell, Cuyler, Rixey, Grimes, Hack Wilson, Cravath, Frank Chance.

Cool Papa Bell: Don't know where to place him just yet. Have a hard time separating myth from reality.

My #1 and #2 were elected again. In 1948, a trio of top candidates with Gehringer, Lyons and Bell. Carl Hubbell and Biz Mackey debut in 1949. In 1950, the trio of Paul Waner, Cronin and Dihigo crowd out the backlog.

1)Charlie Gehringer – Often overrated, not one of the 50 greatest players in history. Still, he’s a slam-dunk for the HoM.

2)Ted Lyons – The only other player on this ballot that I’m certain was one of the top 200 players in history.

3)George Van Haltren (3,3,2) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 40th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4)Clark Griffith (4,4,3) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900, an era lagging in number of HoMers. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie


5)Tommy Leach (5,5,5) – Every time I think of dropping him, to get in line with the consensus, I look at the guys below him and go, “nah”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated. Voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voter are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler

6)Earl Averill (6,6,ne) – Ranks above Roush on strength of league, minor league credit, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

7)Jimmy Ryan (7,7,6)— Most extra-base hits 1888-98:
<I>1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan

8)Edd Roush (8,8,7) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

9)George Sisler (9,9,8) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

10)Eppa Rixey (10,10,9) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

11)Jud Wilson (14,ne,ne) – Looking very much like an overlooked superstar. Should move up.

12)Wes Ferrell (11,11,10) – Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

13)Roger Bresnahan (12,12,11) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett


14)Hughie Jennings (13,13,12) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis

15)Mule Suttles (15,15,ne) – Good slugger. Could move up.

John Beckwith – The current flavor of the month among the voters, it’s a good thing he’s going to be on the ballot a few more years.

1948

1. Charlie Gehringer (-)--He’s good.

2. Pete Browning (3)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

3. Jud Wilson (11)--Big Bump for Jud thanks largely to win shares estimates.

4. Mule Suttles (4)--Why do all the newly eligible Negro Leaguers have animal nicknames? Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them.

5. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Hughie Jennings (6)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

7. John Beckwith (10)--Another bump for Beckwith as I become more and more convinced of his worthiness.

8. Cupid Childs (7)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

9. Tommy Leach (8)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

10. Clark Griffith (9)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

11. Larry Doyle (12)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

12. Joe Sewell (13)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. Well, not so much anymore. . .

13. George Sisler (14)--Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him.

14. Cool Papa Bell (-)--Long career, moderate peak. I might be overrating him--he may belong below Rixey or Maranville, but i’m fairly confident he was better than them.

15. Ed Williamson (15)--Still no Ezra Sutton.

16. Jose Mendez (16)
17. Carl Mays (17)
18. Wes Ferrell (18)
19. Dave Bancroft (19)
20. Roger Bresnahan (20)
21. Dick Redding (21)
22. Ted Lyons (-)
23. Eppa Rixey (22)
24. Hugh Duffy (23)
25. George Van Haltren (24)

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

New WARP not included for now, but I haven't been strict WARP for a while now. I'll give it a fresh look when we get back into the backlog, esp. with respect to Sisler.

New PHOMers are Gehringer and Wilson. I've become an outright comformist. :)

Bell is just off ballot. French is top 100. Waner is not.

1. Charlie Gehringer (1948) (new) - Pretty obvious #1. I'd rate him around hte 6th best 2B ever. Excellent career, prime, peak, he has it all.

2. Jud Wilson (1948) (3) - Very sure on his placement now. In fact, I think there may be a case to be said he's higher than Gehringer, but I won't make that, as I think he would have migrated to 1B quickly in the bigs. Amazing bat though.

3. Wes Ferrell (1945) (4) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

4. Hughie Jennings (1910) (5) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. Ted Lyons - I didn't realize how good this guy was. Great career, not much peak, but plenty of prime. Like someone earlier said, what Rixey's supporters think Rixey is. Will move up on future ballots, as I don't think we should be giving war credit for years that would have made him ineligible for this ballot.

6. José Méndez (1932) (6) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

7. Joe Sewell (1939) (7) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit.

8. John Beckwith (1940) (8) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense. Big gap below him.

9. Dizzy Dean (9) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

10. Rube Waddell (1926) (10) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me. Moves down a touch, as he didn't have quite as many big years as I'd like.

11. Mule Suttles (11) - Think he's a pretty clear 3rd in the Negro League glut atop our standings. It's not that I don't like him, more than I think he should wait a while.

12. Clark Griffith (1927) (12) - We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at. As others have pointed out, we don't need more 1890s OF; need more infielders and pitchers. Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone.

13. Dick Redding (13) - Of similar value to Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. I'm really stuck the mid-ballot pitchers. Really have no confidence in my order, they're all very close.

14. Dobie Moore (14) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

15. Wally Schang (15) - I took another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog.


16-20: Averill, Cross, Dunlap, Monroe, Bell
21-25: F. Jones, Veach, Williamson, Bond, Browning
26-30: Sisler, Shocker, Buffinton, Childs, Taylor
31-35: Maranville, Grimes, Luque, Cuyler, Lundy
36-40: Schalk, Ryan, Poles, Mays, Lazzeri




Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Averill - Is 16 on my ballot, like him, it's just crowded up there.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. I've softened a bit on the old goat. He's a contender for my top 50!

Sisler - #26 right now...may move up, but I'm not incorporating new WARP3 until we get a real backlog year going (and also to stall to see if they plan on making up their minds)

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

New WARP not included for now, but I haven't been strict WARP for a while now. I'll give it a fresh look when we get back into the backlog, esp. with respect to Sisler.

New PHOMers are Gehringer and Wilson. I've become an outright comformist. :)

Bell is just off ballot. French is top 100. Waner is not.

1. Charlie Gehringer (1948) (new) - Pretty obvious #1. I'd rate him around hte 6th best 2B ever. Excellent career, prime, peak, he has it all.

2. Jud Wilson (1948) (3) - Very sure on his placement now. In fact, I think there may be a case to be said he's higher than Gehringer, but I won't make that, as I think he would have migrated to 1B quickly in the bigs. Amazing bat though.

3. Wes Ferrell (1945) (4) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

4. Hughie Jennings (1910) (5) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. Ted Lyons - I didn't realize how good this guy was. Great career, not much peak, but plenty of prime. Like someone earlier said, what Rixey's supporters think Rixey is. Will move up on future ballots, as I don't think we should be giving war credit for years that would have made him ineligible for this ballot.

6. José Méndez (1932) (6) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

7. Joe Sewell (1939) (7) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit.

8. John Beckwith (1940) (8) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense. Big gap below him.

9. Dizzy Dean (9) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

10. Rube Waddell (1926) (10) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me. Moves down a touch, as he didn't have quite as many big years as I'd like.

11. Mule Suttles (11) - Think he's a pretty clear 3rd in the Negro League glut atop our standings. It's not that I don't like him, more than I think he should wait a while.

12. Clark Griffith (1927) (12) - We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at. As others have pointed out, we don't need more 1890s OF; need more infielders and pitchers. Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone.

13. Dick Redding (13) - Of similar value to Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. I'm really stuck the mid-ballot pitchers. Really have no confidence in my order, they're all very close.

14. Dobie Moore (14) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

15. Wally Schang (15) - I took another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog.


16-20: Averill, Cross, Dunlap, Monroe, Bell
21-25: F. Jones, Veach, Williamson, Bond, Browning
26-30: Sisler, Shocker, Buffinton, Childs, Taylor
31-35: Maranville, Grimes, Luque, Cuyler, Lundy
36-40: Schalk, Ryan, Poles, Mays, Lazzeri




Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Averill - Is 16 on my ballot, like him, it's just crowded up there.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. I've softened a bit on the old goat. He's a contender for my top 50!

Sisler - #26 right now...may move up, but I'm not incorporating new WARP3 until we get a real backlog year going (and also to stall to see if they plan on making up their minds)

I've been out of town, so just a quick ballot from me this week. Please see my preliminary ballot or past ballots for my evaluation of the candidates. I put a heavy emphasis on career length, which probably explains why Player X isn't on my ballot.

Hartnett and Gehringer are my PHoM inductees for '48.

1. Jud Wilson (2)
2. Charlie Gehringer (ne)
3. Jake Beckley (...4,4,2,3,4)
4. Mickey Welch (...5,5,3,4,5)
5. Eppa Rixey (...7,6,4,5,6)
6. Burleigh Grimes (...8,7,5,7,8)
7. Mule Suttles (6,7)
8. John Beckwith (...12,11,6,8,9)
9. Dick Lundy (11,10,8,10,11)
10. Cool Papa Bell (ne)
11. Tommy Leach (...10,9,7,9,10)
12. Dick Redding (...14,13,10,11,12)
13. Jose Mendez (...15,14,11,12,13)
14. Carl Mays (...13,12,9,13,14)
15. Ted Lyons (ne)

Sorry for the double post. My connection to this site has been tenuous at best today for some reason.

(blows dust off HoM ballot)

1. Charlie Gehringer. Good player.

2. Jud Wilson. Most underrated Negro Leaguer ever? On the short list I think. Could freakin' hit!

3. Clark Griffith. Personal favorite 1890s pitcher. Nice career, nice prime. The Rodney Dangerfield of the Hall of Merit.

4. George Sisler. Don't get the disdain the electorate have for him. I see a guy with a great prime and great career numbers.

5. Ted Lyons. Wow, it's tough to sort out some of these pitchers. He might deserve to be higher than Griffith, but I think Griffith was hurt by contraction, so I'll give the Old Fox the nod.

6. Mule Suttles. Great Negro League hitter.

7. Mickey Welch. Thank you retrosheet. Turns out he earned those 300 wins. Offensive support only gave him 3-4 wins. Defensive support, though a little above average, was actually worse the defensive support of all major non-Galvin pitchers in the 1880s. In 1885, against the Cubs, he faced off against John Clarkson 7 times & won every game.

8. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

9. Cool Papa Bell. I'm torn on him. On the one hand, I give more credence to reputation with Negro Leaguers, and he's a very high profile one. On the other hand, he strikes me as exactly the sort of person who would be overrated (particularly great at one skill - I skill I think is overrated at that). For now, I'm splitting the difference between where the two different estimates on have are on his ballot placement.

10. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch. Played 14.2 seasons worth of games (including as pitcher) by my reckonin'.

11. Jimmy Ryan. GVH without the ability to pitch. Played 14.6 seasons worth of games, by my reckonin'.

12. Wally Schang. Caught over 1400 games with a 117 OPS+? There's something you don't see everyday.

13. John Beckwith. Much better than I ever would've guessed

14. Jake Beckley. You young'uns ain't going to believe this but in my first few elections I was the Best Friend of Jake (yes, even better than karlmangus). The more I look the less impressed I am. Created a lot of runs for his teams but also created a lot of outs for them.

15. Cupid Childs (9,9,9,15,14). Looking at him again & I think he's better than the infielders I was putting just above him. The D & OBP keep him above Larry Doyle. 10.5 seasons worth of games by my reckonin'.

Off ballot productions:

Wes Ferrell: If I were to go over why I have him off, I'd just be plagarizing the reasons others have already given.

Earl Averill: Had him on my ballot - until I realized I forgot Beckwith. Sisler without the career value.

Hughie Jennings. I used to be the BFoJB - what are the odds I'd be a Jennings supporter?

Close, but no cigar (no particular order): Tommy Leach, Earl Averill, Larry Doyle, Lave Cross Ben Taylor, Cavvy Gravvath, Joe Sewell, Wes Ferrell.

Today should be a national holiday, so of course ESPN decides to show the country the best baseball has to offer: KC-Det.

1. Charlie Gehringer (n/a), Detr. (A), 2B (’26-’41) (1948) – Pretty clear cut 4th best 2B-man to date; pretty easy call this year, though not a N.B.
2. Mule Suttles (3), St.L - Nwk. (--), 1B / LF (‘23-‘42) (1946) – More peak seasons, 800 more translated AB’s enough to get Suttles over Simmons.
--. Al Simmons, Phila. (A), LF / CF (‘24-‘41) (1948) –
3. Ted Lyons (n/a), Chic. (A), SP (’24-’42) – Easily better than Faber in my book, could be above or below Wilson and Beckwith. I try to be conservative to start, but he’s pretty comparable to Eddie Plank (w/ 400+ more Trans. IP) and next below Mathewson on my pitcher list (although a fair ways apart). When you're compared with names like that, you tend to get a bump.
4. Jud Wilson (4), Balt. (--), 3B / 1B (’22-’38) – Roughly equal peak to Beckwith (I see John as slightly ahead) but more career value based on the playing time estimates I’m using.
5. John Beckwith (5), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but definitely worthy by the numbers.
6. Joe Sewell (6), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys.
7. George Van Haltren (7), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.
8. Jimmy Ryan (8), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support.
9. Cool Papa Bell (n/a), St.L (--), CF (’24-’42) – Bid McPhee is the comp for me. My guestimate is that Bell has the better EQA and longer career. The A+ fielding is at a lesser position, but CF is still pretty important. McPhee was at the top of my ballot once, and Bell would be too – except the ballot contenders have improved since then.
10. Dick Lundy (9), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – I see a comparison here with Frank Grant. Those who liked Grant should see something worthy in Lundy. As such, my guess is he makes the P-Hall and falls short of the group HOM.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
11. Eppa Rixey (11), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
12. Ben Taylor (10), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
13. Jake Beckley (12), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.
14. Harry Hooper (13), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.
--. Bill Foster, Chic. (--), SP (’23-’37) –
15. Dizzy Dean (14), St.L (N), SP (’32-’40) – Excellent RSAA ranking (especially considering the low IP totals), and the peak boost I’ve applied to everyone was tailor-made for him.

Wes Ferrell – Larry French almost jumps him on the list. He drops off the ballot in favor of 3 rookies. He’ll be under consideration for a long while to come tho'.
Earl Averill – I think Averill only tops Van Haltren with a steep timeline adjustment. My system tries to counteract that somewhat while still acknowledging that competition improves over time. I see Earl as close to (but below) the Beckley / Hooper / F.Jones group among OF/1B. It’s a judgment call, but I’ll stay with the old timers over the rookie.
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.

Ferrell, Averill, Griffith & Jennings were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.

This is Joe's ballot, guys.

1. Charlie Gehringer (n/e) - One of the all-time greats at 2B.

2. Eppa Rixey (2) - Rixey is clearly the top pitcher on this ballot. He'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around .770 PA and 370 WS) if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19. 300 game winners are a rare breed (especially after 1892) and in just about any other conditions before 1985, Rixey would have been one. It's a shame that he's considered a mistake Hall of Famer by many because of his W-L record, which was tainted by pitching for some bad teams. He's every bit as good as Robin Roberts was, for example.

3. Charley Jones (4) - Give him credit for his blackballed years at .0875 per year and he's at .889 PA. That's basically his 1878, he was better than that in 1879, 1884 and 1885. Throw in 33 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow.

4. Hughie Jennings (5) - The Sandy Koufax of position players. Crammed 9 years production into 5 magnificent seasons.

5. Clark Griffith (6) - He was a true star - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). He falls behind Rixey when Rixey's war credit is included. It was also tougher for pitchers to have the same pennant impact in Rixey's era, so ties tend to go to the modern pitcher on this basis.

Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity, but I can't see how he'd be in and Griffith out - Griffith absolutely deserves eventual induction.

6. Bill Monroe (7) - Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

7. Jud Wilson - seems like he was a very good hitter, the fact that he was a 3B pushes him ahead of Suttles.

8. Mule Suttles (8) - Big time bat, and another of Cooperstown's missing NL stars.

9. Gavy Cravath (9) - Too much to ignore - either he was a freak of nature or there's a lot missing. Just giving him 4 years of extra credit at .075 PA, or 29 WS per season (he was better than that 3 times in his 30s) moves him to 336 WS, .833 PA.

10. Jake Beckley (10) - A very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. 11 seasons over 20 WS, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion.

11. Wes Ferrell (11) - Great pitcher at his best and a good hitter. Combined value higher than I ever realized.

12. Earl Averill (12) - There's a lot to like here. I need to take a better look at his pre-MLB record, I could very well have him too low.

13. Lefty Gomez (n/e) - I see him as similar to Ferrell, but not the hitter.

14. Tony Lazzeri (13) - Quite a hitter for a 2B. I like him better than Childs (though they are quite similar) because 2B was more important defensively in Lazzeri's time.

15. Ted Lyons (n/e) - I am very fond of very good, long-career pitchers. Lyons is a classic example. I thought I would have ranked him higher though.

Just missing . . .

16. Cool Papa Bell (n/e) - I wasn't a big fan of Carey either.

17. Mike Griffin (14) - We're forgetting about him guys. Great defense, very good offense and a star during the one league era, where it was tougher to stand out. Reassessment moves him back onto the ballot.

18. George Van Haltren (15) - Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. Should get a signficant bump for his pitching, though it is easy to forget about it.

19. Tommy Leach (16) - Win Shares loves this guy. He's underrated as a 3B and overrated as a CF because of the time he played in, but in the end it's a wash. Sure it wasn't a great league, but that's an awful lot of WS to turn your back on. He's also the 3rd highest rated 3B to date by WARP3 - just a hair behind Cross and Groh.

20. Dobie Moore (17) - Great player, career cut short.

21. Wally Schang (18) - The best white catcher we've seen since Buck Ewing. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season. He rates higher on WS and WARP3 (70.8) than Charlie Bennett (.525, 154 WSaR, 239 WS, 68.4 WARP3).

Schang is miles ahead of Schalk, and as far as I can tell, any white catcher of the era 1910-30 era.

22. Jimmy Ryan (19) - Great player from 1888-92, and a very good player during the remainder of his long career.

23. Edd Roush (20) - Great player from 1917-1920. His peak was every bit as good as Sisler. Sisler 1916-1922: 145 WSaR. Roush's best 7 seasons 152 WSaR. Sisler, one season at 25 WSaR. Roush two above that and another at 24. The remainder of their careers isn't close. I can't see voting Sisler over Roush. Even giving Sisler at 10% overall bonus for 1B not being measured correctly (which wouldn't even apply to 2nd half of Sisler's career, where 1B became a more offensive position Roush is ahead on all three measures.

24. Ben Taylor (21) - Almost a direct replica of Beckley. Says a lot about the tightness of the ballot.

25. Wally Berger (22) - Short career, but a top notch player when in there. His record reminds me a lot of Fred Lynn's.


******************

26. Jim McCormick (23) - WARP and WS like him much better than Welch.

27. Hugh Duffy (24) - What? The guy I bashed, bashed and bashed again? I guess I was discounting his 1891 too heavily. It needs to be deflated, but not as much as I had. I also laughed away his 1894 as a very good year, but not a historic one in context - again, I was probably too harsh there.

28. Vic Willis (25) - I like Mike Webber's pet too.

29. John Beckwith (26) - Okay, I'll move him up some since you guys obviously think he was great. But I'm still unconvinced.

30. Spotswood Poles (27) - (~332 WS)

31. Heinie Manush (28) - similar offensively to Roush, but he was a LF, not a CF.

32. Dolph Luque (29) - (with 3 bonus seasons at roughly .500 I see him at 239-199 (207-166 CJ) .667 PA, 197 WSaR, 297 WS)

33. Frank Chance (30) - don't forget to give him a slight catcher boost if that's something you do . . .
34. Roger Bresnahan (31) - (.579 PA, 170 WSaR, 249 WS)
35. George Sisler (32) - (.660 PA, 190 WSaR, 317 WS) Most of what I want to say about him is covered in the Roush comment. Additionally, Sisler was a great player from 1916-22. 1B had more defensive responsibility and Sisler still hit like a great outfielder. I see as quite similar to Don Mattingly, but Sisler was able to sustain his greatness a little bit longer and would have to rank ahead if forced to choose among them. I give him a 7.7% bonus for playing 1B - this is the percentage of his pennants added that game before 1923 (the date I generally use as my cutoff for deadball the deadball 1B bonus).
36. Mickey Welch (33) - (302-215 CJ, 1.414 PA, 341 WSaR, 536 WS) - I can't tell if RSI or WARP tells the true story. Extremely divergent opinions. Sad to see that he died this year without being elected.

Others within shouting distance:

Joe Sewell (--) - Good player, but like being the best shortstop of the 1970s, just being the best of a weak crop isn't good enough.

Newt Allen (n/e) - a nice player but I'm not convinced. I do like him better than . . .

Dizzy Dean (n/e) - He had two huge years and a couple of good ones. I don't see it. Just looking at his most similar list, how do you take him over a guy like Harry Breechen even? Breechen was just as good, maybe a hair below. The more I think about it, he's probably the most overrated player in the history of Major League baseball. He's famous and a great part of MLB history, but he shouldn't be anywhere near the Hall of Fame for what he did on the field. He's closer to Mark Fydrich than a HoMer in my opinion (he's obviously much more qualified than Fydrich, but you get my point). Another example, Kevin Appier is MUCH more deserving than Dean, and I don't see him sniffing the HoM . . .

Close but can't even order them at this point: Dick Redding, Jose Mendez, Dick Lundy, Urban Shocker, Carl Mays, Burleigh Grimes (should I be giving him any military service credit?), Rube Waddell, Jack Quinn, Eddie Cicotte, Herb Pennock, Harry Hooper, Ed Konetchy, Travis Jackson, Ed Williamson, Lave Cross, Pie Traynor, Herman Long, Sam Rice, Fielder Jones, Larry Doyle, Cupid Childs, John McGraw, Rabbit Maranville, Joe Tinker, Dave Bancroft, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning, Kiki Cuyler, Waite Hoyt.

Happy opening day after opening night, everybody!

Things are getting really crowded. I've got 2 PHOMers off the ballot this time, and more may follow. PHOM inductees this year are Gehringer and Bill Foster.

1948 ballot:

1. Charlie Gehringer: 4th best 2b so far. Best candidate on the board.

2. Ted Lyons: Many years, many innings, good W-L with not-so-good teams. His most similar is Grimes, better ERA+ puts Lyons just ahead.

3. George Sisler: I think sunnyday2’s got it right regarding him: if the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. (PHOM 1938)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W% and quite a few of his teams were mediocre at best. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. All that in spite of a 107 ERA+! Now that’s pitching in a pinch! : -) (PHOM 1942)

5. Dick Lundy: I’ve been overlooking him. Roughly comparable to Sewell, longer career, a little more pop, a little less average, great defense.

6. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. May have been the best of a weak lot at ss, however. (PHOM 1939)

7. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s. (PHOM 1945)

8. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career, I think he's similar to but better than Carey.

9. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

10. Roger Bresnahan: I dropped him behind Schang for a few years, but Roger’s career suggests brilliance, Wally’s doesn’t. (PHOM 1932)

11. Jud Wilson
12 John Beckwith
13. Mule Suttles
Three terrific hitters with questionable defense. I've had a lot of trouble just sorting them out among themselves, which makes me reluctant to pull the trigger and slot them really high. Wilson has the best rounded profile, Beckwith's BA + ISO combination would probably have been the most highly valued at the time. Suttles is all slugging, and I wonder if his defense might have cost him some career. Wilson & Beckwith probably could have moved left on the spectrum, but Suttles is already there, with a bad defensive rep to boot. Is he Pops or Reggie, or more like Hondo?

14. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. 3 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons. Good gray ink. (PHOM 1926)

15. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, and I don't see what Ferrell's got (except for a bat) that he doesn't. Goofy's ahead on black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for better teams. I think he had something to do with them being good.


Required explanations:
Rixey: Good for a long time. About 8th on my pitcher list.
Ferrell: I’ve got about 15 pitchers under serious consideration and he’s in the bottom 5 of those. Low innings; I prefer Mays & Waddell among the low-innings guys.
Jennings: Exceptional peak, not enough beyond that.


Also in the mix, not necessarily in order: Mickey Welch (PHOM 1929),Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1940), Earl Averill, Pie Traynor, Rube Waddell, Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Larry Doyle, Vic Willis, Carl Mays, Eppa Rixey, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Wally Schang, Spots Poles, Edd Roush, Wilbur Cooper, Dave Bancroft, Waite Hoyt.

1948 Ballot

1. Gehringer, Charlie – One of the true all time greats at his position. Easy call.

2. Wilson, Jud – Unsure about where to slot him, but I am persuaded (for now, early in the process) that he is better than Beckwith. If Boggs is a reasonably good comp, then I’d put him in the 380-400 WS range, and give him the nod over Lundy because batting always counts more than fielding (unless the fielding is incredible and the batting isn’t).

3. Lundy, Dick – I see that most have Lundy slotted lower than Beckwith. I’ve been a bigger proponent of Beckwith’s than most, but I’ve got Lundy around 380 WS and Beckwith around 350, primarily due to defense (and position). They are both HoMers.

4. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 350 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

5. Lyons, Ted -- Came in higher than I expected. He definitely goes in the “overlooked” category from a historical perspective. Not many guys with 300+ WS and 100+ WARP are overlooked.

6. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

7. Suttles, Mule -- I fear that I have him too high, rather than too low. Players who can hit the ball a mile tend to develop long-standing reputations that are not necessarily reflective of overall abilities. That may not be the case here, but I remain a bit skeptical. At one time I scoured 64 lists of all-time great Negro League players. He made 6 of the lists. By contrast, his contemporary, Stearnes, made 13. I rate him lower than an average defensive player too. Riley basically says he caught everything he could reach, but implies strongly that he could not reach very much. In any event, he was probably a better hitter than Sisler, so I’ll put him a little ahead.

8. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

9. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

10. Waddell, Rube – I’ve was holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

11. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor for an outfielder.

12. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

13. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

14. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, but was a peak performer and could swing the bat.

15. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

Required Disclosures:

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #21 in my system, behind Bobby Veach (but really just behind Max Carey) and ahead of Larry Doyle, Tommy Leach and Joe Sewell (but really just ahead of Goose Goslin). I need more brilliance than he provided.

Averill, Earl – Another player whose numbers are inflated by the high run environment in which he played, and when corrected, look just very good. He’s #43 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan and ahead of Kiki Cuyler.

Jennings, Hughie – Too short a career. He’s #45 in my system, behind Kiki Cuyler (but really just behind Al Spalding) and ahead of Rabbit Maranville.

1. Charlie Gehringer—Fifth best second baseman in MLB history.
2. Jud Wilson—Defensive position and offensive production slips Boojum ahead of Suttles, and career length puts him ahead of Mr. Beckwith.
3. Ted Lyons—Had long career as a consistently solid pitcher. His peak isn't great, but it's good enough.
4. John Beckwith—His spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections.
5. Mule Suttles—Based on his reputation alone, I originally had Suttles ahead of Simmons. Based on Chris Cobb’s projections alone, he would be behind Beckwith and possibly Griffith, so I’ve compromised between the two.
6. Clark Griffith—A good balance between peak and career: His peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
7. Charley Jones—A legitimate star of the ‘70s, I finally decided to give him credit for his blacklisted years, jumping him from just off the ballot to here.
8. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. I have rearranged pitchers due to a different balance of career vs. peak value than position players.
9. Hughie Jennings—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
10. Hugh Duffy—Excellent peak puts Duffy behind only Baby Jones among the ML outfielders I considered for my ballot; and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value ain’t too shabby, either.
11. Dobie Moore—Based off projections, estimates and anecdotes, the Negro Leaguers are the wild cards of my HoM ballot. Called the "best unrecognized player" of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings.
12. Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
13. Wes Ferrell—Comparable to Rube Waddell among peak pitchers, IMO. Waddell has the advantage in IP and ERA+; however, considering the difference in eras the gap in IP shrinks (if not balances in Ferrell’s favor), and his competent handling of the bat more than makes up the difference in ERA+, especially considering Waddell’s UER issues.
14. Earl of Snohomish—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the evergrowing glut of solid outfield candidates. I give Averill credit for his PCL performance.
15. Edd Roush—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.

Ballot for 1948

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my syste (yet again). Maybe next election.

1) C. GEHRINGER -- An all time great.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

5) T. LYONS -- Rixey-like career but with a better peak in the better league.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

7) J. WILSON -- Is he the best of the Wilson/Suttles/Beckwith trio?

8) J. BECKWITH -- Now there's doubts.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

11) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Excellent defensive fielder does not get enough credit.

12) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

13) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

14) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

15) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Rabbit Maranville, Hugh Duffy, Jimmy Ryan, Harry Hooper,
20-23) Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Ned Williamson, Ray Schalk,
24-27) Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
28-31) Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Gavy Cravath, Earl Averill,
32-35) Roger Bresnahan, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
36-40) Del Pratt, Sam Rice, Jack Quinn, Dizzy Dean, Tommy Bond

Less than half an hour to go, and 49 ballots - it looks like this will be a slightly low-participation election, The only "new" ballot is Chris J, - new only in the sense that it's been a few years. The outcome is not in doubt; the 3-4-5 rankings will be close (and easily overturned in '49) among themselves.

John - a 1949 ballot discussion thread?

Cutting it close this year.
1. Charlie Gehringer - A mechanical choice for number one. Fantastic consistency at a great level.

2. Ted Lyons - I think he is being underrated by the electorate. Better peak than almost all the other major league pitchers except Ferrell and Waddell with the career to go along with it.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. Jud Wilson - Find him better than Beckwith. Fantastic hitter for any position.

9. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable

12. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

13. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

14. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

15. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but can't reach the ballot with the newcomers this year. On the edge of the ballot

Cutting it close this year.
1. Charlie Gehringer - A mechanical choice for number one. Fantastic consistency at a great level.

2. Ted Lyons - I think he is being underrated by the electorate. Better peak than almost all the other major league pitchers except Ferrell and Waddell with the career to go along with it.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. Jud Wilson - Find him better than Beckwith. Fantastic hitter for any position.

9. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable

12. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

13. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

14. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

15. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but can't reach the ballot with the newcomers this year. On the edge of the ballot

Cutting it close this year.
1. Charlie Gehringer - A mechanical choice for number one. Fantastic consistency at a great level.

2. Ted Lyons - I think he is being underrated by the electorate. Better peak than almost all the other major league pitchers except Ferrell and Waddell with the career to go along with it.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. Jud Wilson - Find him better than Beckwith. Fantastic hitter for any position.

9. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable

12. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

13. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

14. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

15. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but can't reach the ballot with the newcomers this year. On the edge of the ballot

If anyone has any counts, please e-mail them to me now.