I'll submit a ballot some time later.

Hubbell’s very good, only just behind Welch. Bartell OPS+ below 100, Bridges less than 200 wins. Klein shortish career, but OPS+ nearly as good as Hack Wilson, so I’ve put him just below Beckwith (who appears very similar) and above Wilson’s even shorter career. Mackey’s OPS+ very mediocre, difficult to put him much above McGuire (of whom I’m relatively a fan)

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A) Carl Hubbell. Easy HOMer, personal HOM this year, 253-154 @130 ERA+. Welch’s W/L was better, and many more innings.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP, decided I’d been undervaluing him, so moved him up the ballot a bit further. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

8. (N/A-9) Ted Lyons. 260-230 and an ERA+ of 118 put him very close to Rixey, but fewer innings (4161) Better hitter – 43 vs 22 OPS+. Think currently he’s just below not just above. Not much WW2 credit – he was 41.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

13. (N/A-13-14-14) John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles, but had a short career.

14. (N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Very similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length. TB+BB/PA.575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT
16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Just misses again, but will be back on ballot in weak years.
17. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was.
18.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
19. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri Shortish career but a pretty good one, but decided to try him just below rather than above Childs. TB+BB/PA .521, TB+BB/Outs .816, OPS+121, only downside is only 1840 hits.
20. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.
21. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.
22. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.
23. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special
24. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays and Ferrell
25. (N/A) Mule Suttles. About halfway between Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman -- out rather than in, I feel.
26. (N/A) Heinie Manush Shorter but better career than Rice. 2524 hits, TB+BB/PA .495, TB+BB/Outs .745. OPS+121.
27. Earl Averill Shorter but better career than Manush 2019 hits, OPS+133, TB+BB/PA .577, TB+BB/Outs .935. Wilson’s better still
28. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).
29. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134. His unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.
30. Wes Ferrell Hon. Mention really, because of his hitting. Even Mays is only hovering around 15, and Ferrell not as good a pitcher, for not as long.
31. (N/A) Dick Lundy Just a few spots below Sewell, based on his MLEs.
32. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
33. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
34. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
35. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
36. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren.
37. Cool Papa Bell
38. Kiki Cuyler
39. Biz Mackey OPS+ 100 over his long career, or 115 if you take the first half, over a career shorter than Schang's. Either way, he's below the dividfing line.
40. Deacon McGuire
41. Jack Quinn
42. Tony Mullane
43. Pye Traynor
44. Jim McCormick
45. Dick Redding
46. Joe Judge
47. Edd Roush
48. Spotswood Poles.
49. Larry Doyle
50. Roger Bresnahan.
51. Wayte Hoyt.
52. Harry Hooper.
53. Jules Thomas.
54. Wilbur Cooper
55. Bruce Petway.
56. Jack Clements
57. Bill Monroe
58. Jose Mendez
59. Herb Pennock
60. Chief Bender
61. Ed Konetchy
62. Jesse Tannehill
63. Bobby Veach
64. Lave Cross
65. Tommy Leach.
66. Tom York

Karl,

I thought you loved hits. Mackey's MLEs place him #1 all-time in hits among catchers, or at least pretty close. He's got 500 more hits than Schang if you accept the MLEs, and a 12 year prime OPS+ that is within spitting distance of Schang's shorter prime.

As I posted on the Mackey thread, if you cut off Mackey at 1932, and normalize both to 130 games, then he had only 1866 normalized hits, fewer than Schang. One problem of MLEs for Negro League catchers is that they could play more or less every game in the NL, whereas they couldn't have managed that in the longer ML schedules; normalizing to 130 game seasons removes that effect and levels the playing field between catchers.

1949 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I have incorporated WARP and Pennants Added.)

1. Carl Hubbell I’m sorry his arm was permanently disfigured. His screwball got him into the HOM, though. MVP Candidate 1933-1936 All-Star Candidate 1929-1932, 1937-1939 (11 HOM seasons.) PHOM 1949.

2. John Beckwith Great hitter who has been tarnished by history. PHOM 1942.

3. Mule Suttles At first glance, it seems Beckwith was a better fielder, and may have struck out less. PHOM 1949.

4. Cool Papa Bell I always had Carey right behind Van Haltren and Beckley. I think Bell is a little bit better than all three.

5. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

6. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

7. Jimmy Ryan Had a nice peak 1888-1891, better than both Beckley and Van Haltren. MVP candidate 1888. All-Star candidate 1886-1887, 1889-1892, 1894-1899, 1902. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1930.

8. Earl Averill Dominant during his career. MVP Candidate 1931, 1932, 1934, All-Star Candidate 1929-30, 1933, 1935-1938. (10 HOM seasons)

9. Ted Lyons I have a block of outfielders, then a block of pitchers. Lyons is the best of the latter. MVP Candidate 1927, All-Star candidate 1925-26, 1929-30, 1932, 1935, 1937-42. (13 HOM seasons)

10. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. Looking at measures other than Win Shares, he barely sneaks by Grimes. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

11. Wes Ferrell Best pitcher peak on the board, even including Dizzy Dean. MVP Candidate 1930, 1935-1936. All-Star Candidate 1929, 1931-1934, 1937. (9 HOM seasons)

12. Dick Redding Redding belongs with the long-career pitchers.

13. Burleigh Grimes I think he is being overlooked by the electorate, especially given his 1918-1924 peak. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

14. Dick Lundy If actually a 122 OPS+ hitter, he deserves to rate higher.

15. Biz Mackey I’m still not sure about Mackey. I had him as high as #4 at the beginning of the week, and research has dropped him down. I do think he’s clearly behind Gibson and Santop in the pantheon of Negro League catchers.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Sewell - Looks like the best of the available major league infielders to me, but is looking less impressive over time. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown, Vance or perhaps even Waddell. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. Pitchers ahead of him include Rixey, Grimes, Ferrell, Redding, Mendez, Mays, Willis and Cooper. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

George Sisler – A decent peak but surprisingly only one 30+ WS season. Averill’s peak was better. MVP candidate 1917, 1920. All-Star candidate 1916-1922, 1925, 1927-1928. (10 HOM seasons.)


Missing from my PHOM:

Terry (will make it some day)
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Vance (will make it some day)
Faber (may never make it, even with the peak adjustment)
Thompson (will never make it)

1949 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

And wow, the ballot just gets even more crowded the next couple of year. We’re up to 9 guys about whom I feel bad leaving off.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

A tight battle looms for this ballot's electees. I'm pretty confident in my top 3 order, and would be pleased to have any 2 of them honored. Things get real fuzzy for me after Mr. Suttles, though.

1-Carl Hubbell {new}
I conversed with an old-time fan recently, who has been watching ball games since 1933, mostly in NYC. I asked him who would be the modern pitcher closest to Hubbell. His answer was Warren Spahn (I guess Sphanie was modern to him).
2-Ted Lyons (2) [3]
Towers over the other inning-eating pitchers, Welch and Rixey.
3-Mule Suttles (3) [4]
His MLEs look very good, his career was long, and his rep among those who have previously written much about NeLers was great as well.
4-Clark Griffith (4) [10]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats. Fine post-season performances too.
5-Joe Sewell (5) [14]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too.
6-Wes Ferrell (7) [7]
Career ERA of 4.04 doesn’t seem impressive...until you compare it to the league/park average ERA of 4.72. When you add in the bat, he’s a very viable candidate.
7-John McGraw (8) [FORTY!?!]
The peak of Hughie Jennings, with a longer prime. Outstanding RCAP. The fact that he was a consensus fortieth last ballot makes me laugh *and* cry. :) :(
8-George Van Haltren (9) [13]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s. Would be higher if he was ever the key player on a pennant winner.
9-Cupid Childs (10) [20]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
10-Earl Averill (12) [8]
Add in a bit of credit for his PCL years, and he’s on my ballot. Compared to GVH, hit a teeny bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
11-Cool Papa Bell (11) [17]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Paul Blair with afterburners, Bell comes out as a HoMer. But maybe not. For now, he lands here.
12-Roger Bresnahan (13) [28]
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played. Catcher bonus gets him on.
13-Pie Traynor (14) [disappearing]
14-Biz Mackey {new}
Fine players, and fine reps combine to sneak both of these two on the ballot. Shortage of C and 3B doesn’t hurt them either.
15-John Beckwith (15) [5]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew. But: lots of baggage, a shorter career, and low consensus opinion of NeL experts drags him down a little. The numbers we have encourage me to at least put him on my ballot.

Required disclosures:
Eppa Rixey [6]
115 ERA+ , but in front of a good defensive team in the weaker league. Would be elect a guy with a 108ish ERA+? Massive amount of career innings doesn’t quite do it.

New guy Dick Bartell is very clearly below Sewell by every measure. He’d rank no better than 5th among eligible shortstops.

Others getting squeezed out
Hughie Jennings …If we had a PEAK HoM, Hughie would be a shoo-in.
George Sisler ...Equal of Chance and Beckley, although they sure are different!
Rube Waddell ...Great KOs, but unearned runs, and too many HoM pitchers from his era.
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor minus the good rep.
Jake Beckley ...Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM, though.
Frank Chance ...More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Highest WS/yr among any ballot-eligible player by a large margin (>2 WS/yr)! Lots and lots of positive intangibles. Still not quite enough with such a brief career.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone.

4 pitchers in top 6, and 4 NeLers on the ballot; I surprise me! I should rant on myself....

4 pitchers in top 6, and 4 NeLers on the ballot; I surprise me! I should rant on myself....

LOL

(1) Carl Hubbell (new)--Not the King, but a solid member of the Court.

(2) Hughie Jennings (4th)--The next 8 are very close but if I had to induct only one of those guys I think I'd make room for the only player with a Musial-Mays-Collins level peak who is not a first or second ballot HoMer.

(3) Hugh Duffy (5th)--Was among the very best players in baseball for a few years in the early 1890s and has the best season-length-adjusted 10-year WS run of anyone on the ballot. (10-year run adjusted to 154 games is in the mid-270s, career total similarly adjusted is in the low 330s).

(4) Mule Suttles (3rd)-- A very interesting candidate, doesn't comp well to anyone else in baseball history. Would have hit 440-500 home runs in the major leagues with a pretty good but not special batting average and poor walk totals. That makes him better than one group of long career sluggers (the guys who hit .240) and worse than another (the guys who drew 100 walks per season). I see him as a guy who would have batted cleanup for 18 years, played every day, played hard, been a team leader, and constantly made the top 5 in the league in home runs. Not a candidate for the all-time top 5 1B but more than enough for the HoM.

(5)Earl Averill (6th)-- Players with his WS peak/prime/career combination all eventually get in (particularly if you credit him with an extra season or two). Consistently ranks ahead of all the players in his league except the obvious HoMers. I'm holding him and a few other back a tiny bit b/c/ I am worried that we are slightly overrating 1920s and 1930s players by inducting the top x percent of white players and the top y percent of black players w/o/ realizing just how high a percentage of a mythical integrated league x + y would be.

(6) Ted Lyons (7th)--Still trying to figure out where he goes. Might deserve to rank as high as second. I assume he's going in soon.

(7) Wes Ferrell (9th)--A fabulous peak/prime and a sufficiently long career when you see how many IP he threw in his big years relative to the league.

(8)George Van Haltren (10th)--The body of his work is amazing--PCL superstar, fourteen year run as a 25-30 WS/year player in a very tough major league environment achived while transitioning from pitcher to speedster to mature hitter, significant post-majors run in the new PCL. I think he belongs, but, at the very worst, he is the captain of the All-Time Team for the Hall of the Very Good. Should be a bigger figure in baseball history.

(9) John Beckwith (8th)--I'm being somewhat stubborn with him, but I'm not convinced that the sum of his extraordinary parts would have made him a superstar in the major leagues.

(10) Biz Mackey (new)-- So he's not Bench, Conchrane, or Hartnett, he's still an impressive package--an 11-year prime where he was one of the best defensive catchers anywhere and put up very good offensive numbers and then a second career as a useful defensive presence. He is still one of the top 15 catchers of all-time. Worst case scenario is that he was Bill Freehan; best case scenario is I-Rod.

(11) Cupid Childs (11th)--Holds firm
(12) Eppa Rixey (13th)--Like him, don't love him.
(13) Burleigh Grimes (14th)--For those of you who think the 1920s NL are under-represented, take a look at Burleigh.
(14) Dobie Moore (12th)--Eagerly awaiting new WS; without them I'm lost.
(15) Charley Jones (15th)--Great OPS+ numbers (though in an era where the standard deviation of such metrics was higher).

Roush is 16th, followed by Lundy, Sisler, Sewell, and Chance. Vic Willis is my next pitcher.

I am singularly unimpressed by the other new eligibles, none of whom make my top 50. Chuck Klein has to be one of the most overrated players in major league history.

Explanations for missing top 10ers: Griffith didn't pitch enough in comparison with his contemporaries; Sisler is close but doesn't quite have a high enough peak.

Some guys who I think deserve another look: Wilbur Cooper, Bill Monroe, Mike Griffin, George Burns, John McGraw.

1949

The year of my birth though 1950 would have been the first baseball season of my life, well, unless life begins at conception. That woulda been March or else very early April, as I understand I was a bit premature.

Oh, and nevermind my false alarm yesterday. I forgot that I had Dazzy Vance all teed up in the HoM/not PHoM file, ready to fill the next backlog slot.

1. Carl Hubbell (new, PHoM 1949). Clear choice.

2. Hughie Jennings (2 last year-4-3, PHoM 1927). Hughie is killing my consensus score, but I can't resist the big peak.

3. George Sisler (5-6-5, PHoM 1938). Plenty of career value and a high peak. The odd shape of his career confuses some.

4. Dobie Moore (3-5-4, PHoM 1942). The black Hughie Jennings...well, that's overlooking Jennings' famous meetings (two of them) with the pope and Moore breaking his leg jumping out a whorehouse window.

5. Rube Waddell (7-7-7, PHoM 1932). Prime ERA+ 152 still the best around.

(5A. Dazzy Vance, next best pitcher and top 'o' the HoM/not PHoM list, PHoM 1949.)

6. Edd Roush (9-10-9). Better than Averill? I think so, or at least close enough (game-to-game) to more than make up for with 300 games and 1,000
AB. Better than Klein? Better than Suttles? Better than Bell? Tough choices, but with no PHoM slot at stake I'll put him here for now.

7. Dick Lundy (10-15-x.) The one thing Biz Mackey did was force me to go back and take another look at the available NeLers and Lundy moves up everytime I do that. 300 WS, .314 in a .270 league (MLE .280), Bill James says he was surely a better fielder than Lloyd or Wells. Almost surely a better player than Joe Sewell game per game, and 1600 more PA, and almost 2X as many as a SS.

8. Mule Suttles (6-9-6). Better than Beckwith? Better than BeckLEY? Better than Lundy? More valuable than Lundy? I don't think so. Better than Klein? All close calls.

9. Teddy Lyons (14-new). Incredible 17 year prime. Only longer ones yet are Young and Johnson.

10. Chuck Klein (new). Yeah, yeah, I know, short career (well, not really), short peak/prime (well, not really), park effects (okay, really). Still...hard to say Mule Suttles was better. As Bill James said, there's just too much.

11. Tommy Bond (8-8-8, PHoM 1929). A lot of value even after giving half of it to his fielders.

12. Larry Doyle (11-11-10). Never clearly the best 2B with Childs, Monroe and Dunlap nipping at his heels. That continues to hold him down a bit and keep him out of my PHoM. Still, along with Roush, the best option from an underrepresented time and league.

13. Addie Joss (x-13-11). A great peak/prime.

14. Ed Williamson (12-12-13, PHoM 1924). Still not clear how those 27 HR hurt his team, nor how Anson's 21 or Gore's 5 the same year were better. Played the hand he was dealt.

15. Cool Papa Bell (15-new). Placeholder goes to Bell again this year.

Drops out:
Lefty Gomez (13-new). Still a great peak.

Close:
16-20. Mackey, Beckwith, Sewell, Gomez, Averill.
21-25. Browning, Traynor, Dean, Cicotte, Monroe.

Required:
Griffith--about #26, #9 pitcher. Rixey--about #32, #12 pitcher. Ferrell--about #33, #13 pitcher.

karlmagnus wrote:
As I posted on the Mackey thread, if you cut off Mackey at 1932, and normalize both to 130 games, then he had only 1866 normalized hits, fewer than Schang. One problem of MLEs for Negro League catchers is that they could play more or less every game in the NL, whereas they couldn't have managed that in the longer ML schedules; normalizing to 130 game seasons removes that effect and levels the playing field between catchers.

Negro League teams played more than just league games; they also played white semipro opponents, playing games almost every day during the season (sometimes amounting to as many as 200 games in a season). Because rosters were small (no more than 15-16, if that), and because some of the white semipro games were big draws and considered important games, the teams really couldn't rest their top players in non-league games.

Below are the major teams from 1921 and 1928, their games against top black competition, and each team's top two catchers with their games played. The highest percentage of a team's games caught is by Larry Brown for Memphis in 1928, catching 75 of the team's 80 games--this prorates to 144 out of 154.

1921:
Indy ABCs (79): Russ Powell 40, Biz Mackey 31
Bacharach Gts (54): Julio Rojo 38, Yank Deas 18
Chi American Gts (72): George Dixon 42, Jim Brown 32
Columbus (71): Mack Eggleston 48, Charles O’Neill 14
Chicago Gts (45): Otto Ray 25, Frank Duncan 16
Cuban Stars (69): Eufemio Abreu 58, Eugenio Morin 16
Detroit (59): Bruce Petway 35, Speck Webster 23
Kansas City (95): Frank Duncan 51, Sylvester Foreman 37
Hilldale (41): Louis Santop 26, Jim York 14
St. Louis (64): Dan Kennard 38, Sam Bennett 32

The young Frank Duncan, traded from the Chicago Gts to KC during the season, led the league with 67 games caught.

1928:
Birmingham (82): Bill Perkins 72, Poindexter Williams 14
Chi American Gts (83): John Hines 49, Mitch Murray 24
Cuban Stars (47): Aurelio Cortes 32, P. Entienza 18
Cleveland (64): Eppie Hampton 28, George Dixon 16
Detroit (80): Ted Radcliffe 65, Stack Martin 20
Kansas City (74): Frank Duncan 45, Tom Young 31
Memphis (80): Larry Brown 75, William Lowe 4
St. Louis (83): Henry Williams 57, Spoony Palm 36

Bacharach Gts (59): John Cason 30, Edward Jones 30
Baltimore (70): Robert Clarke 38, Mack Eggleston 35
Cuban Stars East (29): Jose Fernandez 23, Ramon Bragana 5
Homestead Grays (19): Benito Calderon 8, George Britt 6
Lincoln Gts (41): Charles Spearman 27, Julio Rojo 14
Hilldale (62): Biz Mackey 48, Joseph Lewis 20

1949 ballot
Mackey and Hubbell make my pHoM this year

1. George Sisler finished 4 in the NL in batting average in 1928 (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Carl what would of his career been like if Cobb wasn’t a fool (makes my personal HoM this year)
3. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (makes my personal HoM this year)
8. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles
9. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
12. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
18. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
19. Moose Suttles with I had some antidotal information on him especaly quotes
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
24. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
27. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
28. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
29. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Ted Lyons ditto
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is at 33

2. Carl what would of his career been like if Cobb wasn’t a fool (makes my personal HoM this year)
make that
2. Carl Hubbell what would of his career been like if Cobb wasn’t a fool? (makes my personal HoM this year)

Here's my ballot:

1. Carl Hubbell. Very strong overall resume. Excellent career value and excellent peak value. No question about him.

2. John Beckwith

3. Mule Suttles

4. Jose Mendez

5. Edd Roush

6. Wes Ferrell

7. Rube Waddell

8. Cannonball Dick Redding

9. George Sisler

10. Ben Taylor

11. Ted Lyons

12. Dick Lundy

13. Biz Mackey. Not as good as I thought, but I still have a soft spot for great defensive catchers who played a long time. I think he's the best catching candidate on the ballot: similar to Schang, but provided his teams with superior defense (and Schang wasn't bad by any means.)

14. Vic Willis

15. Cool Papa Bell

Disclosures:

Top ten returnees not on my ballot.

-Eppa Rixey. I have him 46th on my ballot. Not enough of a peak despite long career.

-Earl Averill. I really don't get why Averill is getting more support than Roush. Anyway, I have him 17th on my ballot.

-Clark Griffith. I have him right behind Averill, at #18. He's very close. He's the last player on my ballot that I feel definitely belongs in the Hall of Merit. It's just crowded and I don't know when he'll ever get a peak at my top 15 again.

-Hughie Jennings. Covered this one a few times. Just doesn't have enough career value for me. I have him 25th on my ballot.

-Jake Beckley. Ditto. Nice player with a long career. The Mark Grace of the late 19th century. I have him 41st on my ballot.

New guys not in my top 15:

-Chuck Klein. I have him at #27 right now. I love his peak, but it's a little too short, as is his career.

Tommy Bridges: #48 on my ballot.
Lon Warneke: #51 on my ballot.
Dick Bartell: #75 on my ballot.

David - regarding Beckley as the Grace of his era:

WARP1
Palmeiro 114.2
Beckley 111.7
Grace 90.9

I've been calling him the Rafael Palmeiro of his generation. There's a big difference.

BA/OBP/SLG relative to league:

Palmeiro +.019/+.033/+.096 (11624 PA)
Beckley +.033/+.020/+.069 (10470 PA - adjusting for schedule, he'd be even if he schedules averaged 146 games, I'm pretty sure they were shorter than that on average, could be wrong though)
Grace +.033/+.043/+.024 (9290 PA)

Translated batting stats:

Palmeiro 11270 PA, .293/.379/.552 (.307 EQA)
Beckley 11351 PA, .277/.334/.493 (.277 EQA)
Grace 9125 PA, .301/.385/.458 (.290 EQA)

The only problem with those numbers is that the era adjustment destroys Beckley.

The numbers between Grace and Palmeiro are very consistent with the league numbers I posted earlier.

Guesstimating at removing the era adjustment . . .

Palmeiro 11270 PA, .293/.379/.552 (.307 EQA)
Beckley 11351 PA, .301/.369/.518 (.297 EQA)
Grace 9125 PA, .301/.385/.458 (.290 EQA)

That measure would show him between the two on rate, but clearly much closer to Palmeiro once you factor in career length. The guy did rack up almost 3000 hits in a short schedule era and he's 61st all time in doubles and 4th all time in career triples, which were the power stats of his generation.

His career OPS+ is 125, to Palmiero's 132 and Grace's 119 (again, in a much shorter career).

Joe, thank you.

Gary A. Precisely my point. 75 games out of 80 as catcher is NOT equivalent to 146 out of 154; the actual number and frequency of games batters the catcher, so Mackey (say) could not have caught the same percentage of games in the ML.

PHoM this year: Mule Suttles & John Beckwith

I REALLY tried to figure out why everyone loves Hubbell so much. It is hard when msot of the comments are along the lines of "Obvious #1", when he seems nothing of the sort to me. He is 20th in WS out of the players I am considering. That is not terrible, but it certainly isn't exciting. I have him on my ballot, but just barely. I will continue looking at him next year, even if he goes in this year.


1. Mule Suttles (3,3,9)

With Beckwith sliding down after my overreaction, Mule moves into the top spot.

2. Eppa Rixey (4,4,3)

I have never been excited about Rixey, but whenever I run my numbers, he turns out pretty well.

3. Jake Beckley (6,6,4)
4. George Van Haltren (5,2,2)

These two should both have been inducted long ago, in my opinion.

5. John Beckwith (2,x,x)

When I turned the corner on him, I got a little over-excited. Still very deserving.

6. Ted Lyons (12,x,x)

An extra 'year' of due diligence moves Lyons up 6 spots.

7. Mickey Welch (7,7,5) Not quite in GVH and Beckley territory for being overlooked, but still...

8. Edd Roush (9,9,8)
9. Tommy Leach (8,8,6)

10. Cool Papa Bell (11,x,x)

I WANT to have him higher. The problem is justifying it.

11. Sam Rice (14,12,12)
12. Hugh Duffy (13,10,11)

13. Biz Mackey (new)

Higher than Hubbell in my estimation. I may even be undervaluing him.

14. George Sisler (15,11,10)

15. Carl Hubbell (new)

See above.

16-20. Lundy, Ryan, Averill, Moore, Childs

21-25. Powell, Grimes, Monroe, Griffith, Sewell

26-30. Streeter, Mullane, Doyle, White, Gleason

Gary A. Precisely my point. 75 games out of 80 as catcher is NOT equivalent to 146 out of 154; the actual number and frequency of games batters the catcher, so Mackey (say) could not have caught the same percentage of games in the ML.

This really belongs in the MLE thread, I suppose. Anyway, no: my point is that the percentage of league games caught by any given catcher in the NeL is about the same as the percentage of ALL games caught. Brown wasn't getting that much (if any) extra rest in other games. If you look at the typical percentage of league games caught for each team, it's not that different from the same percentage for major league teams of the time.

Here are the percentages of a team's games caught by leading catchers, for the 1921 and 1928 Negro Leagues, compared to the major league figures for the same years:

1921 NeL leading catchers caught 401 of 649 games, or 62 percent (ranging for individual teams from 54 to 84 percent)
1921 NL 773/1226, 63% (range 60-72%)
1921 AL 968/1232, 79% (range 71-91%)

1928 NeL west 423/593, 71% (range 44-94%)
1928 NeL east 174/280, 62% (range 42-79%)

1928 NL 810/1228, 66% (range 49-81%)
1928 AL 741/1234, 60% (range 46-85%)

All NeL teams, 1921 & 28 (24 teams) 998/1522, 66%
ALL ML teams, 21 & 28 3292/4920, 67%

In other words, major league regular catchers started 67% of their teams' games in these two years; NeL regular catchers started 66% of theirs. There's no difference.

(Note: NeL total games come out to an odd number occasionally because I didn't include a few teams that played only a handful of games against top competition.)

Bartell #25, Klein #26, Bridges #53. Warneke a nice career but not close to the ballot. As I recall the NBJHA had Warneke rather high, but a two year peak isn’t enough for me.

Jud Wilson for my 2nd PHoM choice this year.

At this point Griffith, Bresnahan, Welch, Joss, and Jose Mendez are in my PHoM but off my ballot.

1)Hubbell--Easy choice, 2nd best pitcher in the 30 year era between Johnson/Alexander and Feller/Spahn.
2)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
3)Lyons--Between Alexander and Feller, only Grove and Hubbell are obvious pitching electees. Lyons is the best of the rest, I’d take him before Vance, Coveleski, Faber, and Rixey.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
5)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
6)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
7)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
8)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
9)Suttles--Struggling with where to put him.
10)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
11)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
12)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
13)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
14)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
15)Cuyler--I think he’ll be below the in/out line.

Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.

I think the Grace comment refers more to the complete and utter lack of a peak for either player. Obviously, Beckley had the longer career (and thus should be higher on the totem pole than Grace), but neither one was ever one of the 10 best players in baseball, or particularly close.


Guesstimating at removing the era adjustment . . .

Palmeiro 11270 PA, .293/.379/.552 (.307 EQA)
Beckley 11351 PA, .301/.369/.518 (.297 EQA)
Grace 9125 PA, .301/.385/.458 (.290 EQA)

Hmmm? Isn't the first EQA listed on the player cards "raw" EQA without timelining?

Beckley: .290
Palmeiro: .296
Grace: .290

1B of course was a more valuable defensive position in Beckley's day, but Grace was the better actual defender, so that probably balances out.

Like I said, Beckley has a few extra years on Grace, so he's above him, even with a reasonable timeline, but the Grace comp is not inappropriate.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).



1) Ted Lyons-P (6): With WWII credit, he places above Hubbell on career. I definitely recommend his induction into the Hall. Best major league pitcher for 1927.

2) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (3): TomH's arch-nemesis (not really, since he does have him on his ballot while others do not :-D). Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1923 and 1929, as well as the best major league shortstop for 1925, if he had been allowed to play.

3) Carl Hubbell-P (n/e): A great one. Too bad that there is too much emphasis on his All-Star performance in '34 instead of his terrific pitching when it really counted. Best major league pitcher for 1933 and 1936.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (5): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (6): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league rightfielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

7) George Van Haltren-CF/P (7): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

8) Tommy Bridges-P (n/e): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Wally Schang-C (11): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

11) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Mickey Welch-P (15): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (n/e): I like him better than Suttles, FWIW. I'm comfortable enough with his MLE's to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league rightfielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

14) Frank Chance-1B/C (n/e): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

15) Pete Browning-CF/LF (n/e): Like Chance, it has been "decades" since Browning has been on my ballot. I hope they both enjoy it while it lasts. :-) Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.


Mackey is in my top fifty, but that post-1931 career hardly does anything for him. Very Sisler-like, except I think Sisler was better.

Suttles, Rixey, Ferrell, Averill, Sisler and Griffith all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Pitcher heavy top of ballot is beginning to show my divergence with the electorate -- 6 pitchers in my top 7.

1. Hubbell – 5 consecutive 20 win seasons, 9 all-star games, 130 ERA+, 3 era+ titles, does it for me.

2. Ted Lyons – lots of wins for a bad team – great success in good role well into later years. Good ERA+, would have had most wins on this ballot for a 20th C. pitcher if he had played on even a decent team.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

5. Eppa Rixey
6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between these two candidates. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on.

7. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind Rube Foster, Rogan and Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and if new negative info comes, I could have Mackey as low as Schang (who I have in the low 20s).

9. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

10. George Sisler
11. Sam Rice – I like the hits. Sisler way out peaks Rice.

12. Mule Suttles – I’m getting more sold on Suttles and less sold on Beckwith. Suttles’ MLE WS are tough to overlook even if you apply a modest discount.

13. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). My personal, in/out line is here.

14. Beckwith –The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 315 career WS, which is pretty much how I see him. I might move him down soon --- or he might get elected first.

15. I’ve soured on Griffith a bit so I have decided to pull someone from my outfield glut on to the ballot. Cool Papa Bell gets the spot this week, because it is possible that he is more than Max Carey, and if he really could have reached 3000 hits, he’d easily make my ballot with his speed and defense.

16. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Warneke, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin -- all these pitchers are in my top 70, but I haven't actually placed them except Ferrell, Mendez, Joss, Dean and Gomez.

17. Pete Browning
18. Joe Sewell
19. Tommy Leach
20. Pie Traynor
21. Bill Munroe
22. Wes Ferrell
23. Jose Mendez
24. Addie Joss
25. Schang
26. Dizzy Dean
27. Hack Wilson
28. Dick Lundy
29 to 35
·George Van Haltren
·Earl Averill
·Buzz Arlett
·Spotswood Poles
·Edd Roush
·Jimmy Ryan
Hugh Duffy
36 and 37. Veach and Hooper
38. Lefty Gomez
39. Kiki Cuyler
40. Jennings
41 to 44. Maranville, Childs, Taylor, Moore
45. Gavvy Cravath
46. Konetchy
47. Larry Doyle

Looks like I’m going to be a pitcher for my 1861 vintage base ball team, which, because it’s all underhand, has me thinking in nautical terms to my new submariner delivery….

Drinking Daiquiris on the Promenade
1. Carl Hubbell: Best NL pitcher of his era, similar value to Feller (sans any war credit for Feller); the Gibson or Palmer of his era with similar career shape.

2.Mule Suttles: Slides up a spot after we elected my #1 and #2 last year. This was where I think we all supposed Mackey would slide in. It’s not to be.

Making Merry on the Main Deck
3.John Beckwith: The best shortstops of the late teens and early 20s might all have been Negro Leaguers. Beckwith may have in some years been the very best, but he had stiff competition from Moore and possibly Wells (though I don’t know whether Wells overlapped or not). When he moved to third, he was still among the best 3Bs.

4.Hugh Duffy: Big peak, prime. Reasonably long extended prime and career. Freshen your drink, guv’nuh?

5.George Van Haltren: Reconsideration moves him downward just a smidge. Enough peak to keep ahead of the rest of the glut, enough career to keep ahead of the rest of the glut, enough votes to almost be the lifetime votes leader in the HOM’s lengthy history.

6.Gavy Cravath: I threw him a life preserver. Minor-league credit boosts him from an off-ballot question mark to #6. He was dominant in the AA prior to his stint in the NL, and I have extended him further credit for some of his PCL play because I believe the majors did not recognize his true talent or ability level.


Cavorting in their Cabins
7.George Burns: All about the peak/prime, yes, but he’s got a longer career than guys like Berger, Wilson, Jennings, etc….

8.Jose Mendez: His peak/prime simply outweighs Lyons’s career in my opinion.

9.Ted Lyons: Clearly superior to Rixey among long-career, low-peak candidates. Can’t wait til Red Ruffing comes along to make a further mess of this group.

10.Eppa Rixey: Lyons is just better all the way around than Rixey.

11.Spots Poles: He fits into CF Glut Part 2 with Averill and Roush, behind the Duffy/GVH tier.

12.Earl Averill: Nice prime/extended prime, but lack of career length hurts his case.

13. Wes Ferrell: A little reconsideration nudges Ferrell back on board and bounces Hughie back off.

14.Edd Roush: See Averill comment, it’s the same here.

15.Tommy Leach: If he’d only been at third all along…. Oh, you didn’t want a smoking cabin? Tough noogs.


Meanwhile, in the Engine Room
16.Jennings: Peak, peak, peak! Ferrell’s and Cravath’s ballot-box apotheoses means someone’s got to go. Hughie gets the short straw.



Men Overboard!
George Sisler: Heck, I even like Terry better than this guy. Happy swimming, gorgeous.

Clark Griffith: Wouldn’t it be something if the Clark bar was named after him? It wasn’t so he’s not on my ballot.


Stay off my gangplanks (until further notice)
Biz Mackey: This one’s really tough, but I simply couldn’t put him on my ballot. Look, even when I adjusted him as a catcher, he wasn’t as good as Bresnahan. Well, Bresnahan hasn’t appeared on my ballot since Mackey was knee-high to a nickel curve, so despite much interest about him. I will say this, however, he’s within my consideration set and comfortably so, well above the Schalks of the world, comfortably ahead of Lopez or Ferrell or those guys. I think that, eventually, he’ll have my vote, but not until around the year 2000. I mean that in all seriousness because by the time he gets a vote from me, we’ll have cleared out about a dozen other catchers whom I prefer.

Lon Warneke: I enjoyed the essay on him in the Neyer/James book. That said, he’s a peak/prime guy whose peak/prime aren’t that impressive. I suspect his value is more like Dizzy Trout’s (sans War deductions) or perhaps even Coveleski’s, once Lon’s batting advantage is factored in. He does better than Bridges in my eyes, and he’s on the bubble in the long term. I could see myself placing him on a ballot in the very distant future.


I’m Sorry, Your Papers Are Not in Order, Sir.
Dick Bartell: Another one to add to the glut, though less attractive than the Sewell/Bancroft/Traynor/Lazzeri group.

Tommy Bridges: I don’t think he’s one of the best 75 or so best starting pitchers that there ever were. I also don’t think the HOM will honor much more than 70 SP at maximum (or about 1/3 of its total membership when we catch up to the HOF). And even on this ballot, where I have the remarkably high total (for me) of five SPs, he doesn’t really look very good in comparison to the lowest of them, Ferrell, in things like the MOWPs. I do prefer him to Griffith, however.

Chuck Klein: I’ve always like him because his stats were fun to look at. I don’t think, however, that he’s better, nor even equal to KiKi or Heinie Manush who are well off the end of my ballot.

1949 ballot.

1. Wally Schang In context, one of the greatest offensive catchers ever. Depending on where you draw the line on catchers and how strong you think that AL was during his time, could be seen as anywhere from sub-ballot to one of the biggest oversights of the HoF.

2. Ted Lyons
3. Carl Hubbell

100+ WARP3 is probably above the in/out line for pitchers.

4. Joe Sewell Dominant major league SS by so much during his prime that he would be in the top half of my PHoM. Has already been bested by Vaughan and Cronin.

5. Earl Averill Close to the average of Elmer Flick and Frank Baker. While career shortness didn't keep Flick or Baker from being elected quickly, competition is tougher now, so Averill has a long road ahead of him.

6. Mule Suttles It's the home runs. According to Holway, among top 5 in league HR 12 or 13 times. Is being among the top 5 in one the main Negro Leagues during their golden age like being amoung the 10 top in home runs in a typical major league season? Major league players who were among the top 10 in league HR 13 times: Crawford, Foxx, R. Jackson, Killebrew, Mantle and Schmidt. Was his HR totals distorted by park effects? Park and perhaps league effects gave him a boost while he played in St. Louis, but he also hit HR in the double digits (in the short NeL seasons) in Birmingham, Baltimore, Chicago, and Newark. Everything suggests that his great home run power was for real. Unless he was Kingman, see no reason to keep him out.

7. Lefty Gomez The 2 Cy-Young type seasons plus the remainder of his prime, alternating with Ruffing as the ace of the Yankees dynasty during the 1930s, helps puts him on my ballot. I base my pitcher ratings on ERA+ and career length and give big year bonuses. Why not Dean? Fair or not, in my system, the difference between 2000 and 2500 innings in the period does a lot to
substantiate a pitcher's career. The relative shortness of his career and the contradictions in his record make this rating more "fragile" than most.

8. Tommy Bridges Most similar pitcher: Urban Shocker, perhaps. With deductions for low quality of competition in the early war years, no credit for later war years, but no penalty for facing poor teams preferentially. 126 ERA+ in a still strong (?) AL is impressive.

9. Jose Mendez His domination of the Cuban leagues and total run average title in his full NEL season may indicate a HOM-worthy peak, with all of the uncertainties involved.

10. Sam Rice I think his league-adjusted career value puts him in HoM territory, though I can see why there's not a lot of love for single-hitting right fielders.

11. Wes Ferrell Great prime, small bonus for hitting. Hurt from a HoF perspective by pitching in such a hitter's era.

12. Roger Bresnahan Top catcher of the 19-aughts, consistently all-star quality in his prime.

13. Buddy Myer It seems like I'm more likely to vote for borderline 2/4/5/6 infielders than the consensus- I've had Schalk and Traynor, and now Myer on the bottom of my ballot, and Schang and Sewell are still near the top.

14. Heine Manush Most similar players: borderline OFs George Gore, Joe Kelley, Sherry Magee, Willie Keeler. Don't like the excess of corner outfielders in the HoM, but can't dock Manush for that.

15. Eppa Rixey Helped by a little war credit, among longest careers in equivalent years. Enough quality to make by ballot despite my hefty NL discounts.

16. Biz Mackey Somewhere between Stearnes and Cool Papa Bell in the pantheon of NeL stars. (How's that for precision voting?)

The most similar player to Chuck Klein is Babe Herman. While he's a fascinating case of how extreme park effects can be, I think, however, that players like Klein and Herman fall well below the in/out line.

Dick Bartell joins the Herman Long club of "good but not quite" shortstops.

No matter how I slice it, I see other contemporary candidates as superior to Beckwith : Stearnes and Suttles as hitters, Wilson as a 3B, Wells as a SS, Mackey and Gibson as hitters in the toughest defensive position. Even if Beckwith qualifies for the "high-peak SS" category, I would give the nod to Lundy instead.

Jennings, Griffith , and Beckley were excellent players. I'd go with Beckley, Jennings and Griffith in that order. My philosophy, however, is that number of HoMers per decade should double roughly every 60 years (a compromise between the rate of increase in the number of major league teams over the years and the rate of population increase). Or, if you prefer, the remaining 1890s players have been timelined away.

I sympathize with Sisler's case. Unlike some other candidates whose ML career was derailed by injury or being stuck in the minors, Sisler was almost certainly on track for a HoM career before his injury. Still, I have to go by what he accomplished, and his peak wasn't quite dominant or long enough for me.

Even if Beckwith qualifies for the "high-peak SS" category, I would give the nod to Lundy instead.

I don't understand this, Eric. Unless your projecting Beckwith as the equivalent of myself as a fielder, I don't see how Beckwith can't be seen as the better peak performer at short over Lundy. Am I am misinterpreting your post?

BTW, I am happy to see that I won't be the only voter with Bridges on his ballot, Eric. :-)

I don't understand this, Eric.

I stand by my comment.

I stand by my comment.

Okay, Eric. I can't force you to elaborate any further.

1949 Ballot

Like Professor Hinkle, I’ve been Bizzie this week, so I haven’t had time to do as much analysis of the recent pitching candidates as I would like, and a little trip means I need to post this ballot tonight, but if we elect Hubbell and Lyons this year, I’m pretty comfortable with that, as my ballot has gotten top-heavy with pitchers. I’d rather see Beckwith than Lyons go in this year, but I fear Beckwith will have to wait until the mid-1950s for his turn.

1. Carl Hubbell (n/e). Not an all-time great in the Alexander or Grove mode, but an obvious HoMer and probably one of the best 100 players of all time. At his peak he was nearly as good as Grove and better than Dean or Ferrell, and has much more career than the latter two. He has nearly as much career value as Lyons, in considerably fewer innings.
2. John Beckwith (3). Remains on the cusp of election. I think he should go in this year. He’s been under consideration for a decade now. We can now compare his MLEs to numerous other NeL greats to see that, unless the raw statistics are flawed, he was definitely among the top hitters of his generation. The reports of his bad character have been carefully examined and debunked on several points. His defense has been carefully examined as well, with the available statistics suggesting that he was at least an adequate defender on the left side of the infield. It behooved the electorate to be cautious with Beckwith, but in his tenth year of eligibility, I think he no longer deserves to be termed a “flavor-of-the-month.”
3. Ted Lyons (4). I agree that he was better than Rixey; I have him provisionally slightly ahead of my man Clark Griffith as well. I want to study him further, but I may not have a chance to do my own analysis of his fielding support before he is elected.
4. Clark Griffith (5). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
5. Hughie Jennings (6). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
6. Eppa Rixey (7). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the late 1950s, though if he turns out to be better than Ruffing, election could come sooner than that.
7. Wes Ferrell (8). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
8. Mule Suttles (9). Needs revised win shares, but I’m sure he’s behind Gehringer/Beckwith/Wilson and ahead of Van Haltren. Without fuller analysis, I’ll take the pitchers over the slugger.
9. George Van Haltren (10). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
10. Edd Roush (11). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
11. Tommy Leach (12) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
12. George Sisler (13). Nice peak. Although I don’t use WARP formally in my system, the revision of his value there makes me feel more confident about keeping him on my ballot.
13. Biz Mackey (n/e). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer, but not good enough to leap ahead of the backlog. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
14. Larry Doyle (15). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.
15. Burleigh Grimes (18). Moved by arguments about the NL of the 1920s being underrepresented, I’m moving Grimes up a few notches.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot.
Jake Beckley. Liking him better as I give the quality of competition in his prime due weight. He’s now at #34. If we make good progress into the backlog in the 1960s-1970s, he could make my ballot.
Earl Averill. Slips to 16 this year and will slip back up at some point. See below for more. . .

1945 Off-Ballot

16. Earl Averill (14). Exercising a little caution on the 1930s, as Andrew Siegel suggests, drops Averill off the ballot this year. I think he has a good case, but that’s not enough to get him on the ballot now. I’m with Joe D. in that there are 22 candidates I’d really like to be voting for, and I think the next 25 all have some decent arguments to be in the HoM rather than the Hall of Very Good. I’ll be very interested to see who the HoM starts electing once we have caught up to the present and no longer have our membership numbers tied to Cooperstown’s. It’s pleasant to think that we could honor _more_ players than they do and still have a much better set of honorees . . .
17. Jose Mendez. The player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
18. Rabbit Maranville. His defensive value and his career length deserve more respect.
19. Spotswood Poles . Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
20. Dick Redding . Ditto. I don’t buy gadfly’s claims that he would easily have been a 300-game winner, but I’d like to see a defense of this claim that really goes into Redding’s record, as we have it now.
21. Urban Shocker. Someday I’ll take up his cause.
22. Mickey Welch. Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again.
23. Hugh Duffy. Nothing bad to say about him, but not quite enough good to say.
24. Cool Papa Bell (n/e). The years in Mexico need more study. If his late peak was strong, he should be up around VH and Roush.
25. Carl Mays . Wes Ferrell lite.
26. Rube Waddell
27. Jimmy Ryan
28. Roger Bresnahan
29. Wally Schang
30. Cupid Childs
31. Buzz Arlett
32. Dobie Moore
33. Ben Taylor
34. <.b>Jake Beckley</b>
35. Joe Sewell
36. Dick Lundy
37. Waite Hoyt
38. Herman Long
39. Wilbur Cooper
40. Lave Cross
41. Kiki Cuyler
42. Harry Hooper
43. Bobby Veach
44. Fielder Jones
45. Dolf Luque
46. Gavvy Cravath
47. John McGraw
48. Tommy Bond
49. George J. Burns
50. Charley Jones
51. Bruce Petway
52. Bill Monroe
53. Dizzy Dean
54. Babe Adams
55. Mike Tiernan
56. Sam Rice
57. Dave Bancroft
58. Frank Chance
59. Tony Mullane
60. Ed Konetchy
61. Addie Joss
62. Wally Berger

Other New Arrivals

Bridges and Warneke might deserve to be in the top 60, but they are two more pitchers I haven't the time to study properly.

Klein just doesn't impress me: I need a much higher peak to make up for such relatively low career value: Berger is significantly better on peak, I think. Klein is down in the 80-90 range with Hack Wilson.

Not to beat a dead horse, but . . . "the Grace comp is not inappropriate"

I think it is. Beckley was nothing like Grace. Grace was Wade Boggs lite, Beckley was Palmeiro light. Beckley was a power hitter, Grace wasn't. Neither had a peak, but Beckley played about 4 more seasons, and when your whole case is career value, 25% extra career (Beckley vs. Grace) is a ton. The Grace comment is meant as a negative (in terms of Hall of Merit qualifications, Grace was a good player), and gets people thinking of him as a Mark Grace type of player, which he wasn't.

When you factor in 1B being a much tougher position in the 1890s (mostly IMnsHO because of the awful gloves pounding the hands) that hurt hitting, I think the Palmeiro comparison is MUCH more appropriate.

No biggie, but I just wanted to be on the record. Again. :-)

When

no idea what that 'when' is - must have been left over from something else or something . . .

I have read many comments about the difficulty of playing first base in the 1890s-19teens (gloves, bunting). Do people have any thoughts about an appropriate win shares credit per year/per 1000 defensive innings? I was thinking of between 1 and 2 more win shares a year? Am I insane? Any thoughts are welcome.

Okay, Eric. I can't force you to elaborate any further.

John- I do think that Beckwith had a higher peak than Lundy, and better career batting rate stats. On the other hand, Lundy had a longer career, and one that was almost entirely at shortstop. Both have 7 Holway all-star awards and 1 Holway MVP award. It's close, but I'd give the nod to Lundy. I'll change my comment in future ballots to clear up any confusion.

I'll change my comment in future ballots to clear up any confusion.

I appreciate that, Eric.

I have read many comments about the difficulty of playing first base in the 1890s-19teens (gloves, bunting). Do people have any thoughts about an appropriate win shares credit per year/per 1000 defensive innings? I was thinking of between 1 and 2 more win shares a year? Am I insane? Any thoughts are welcome.

Since I compare each player to his peers, there is no need for me to add on WS. Sorry I can't help you on that matter, Kelly.

Kelly's got some great 1948-1949 info in the discussion thread.

This year, I see Hubbell as an easy #1 (for me, at least). Also, I gave Lyons a bit of a boost due to the discussion last week. Mackey is a hard one to judge.

1949 Ballot

1. Carl Hubbell (ne) -- He's got the career numbers (130 ERA+/3590IP) and the peak (2 MVPs, 3 ERA titles) to top the ballot.
2. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4-4-4-2-5-4-2-3-4-3) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago.
3. Clark Griffith (15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14-13-8-4-7-5-3-4-5-4) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
4. John Beckwith (12-8-6-4-5-6-5) Convinced he's ballot-worthy by recent analysis and re-analysis. He was certainly a good hitter. Career length and true defensive position are my main concerns with him.
5. Larry Doyle (14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2-3-3-1-4-7-6-7-8-6) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
6. Cupid Childs (15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6-6-5-3-6-8-7-8-9-7) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
7. Ted Lyons (ne-11) -- Long career. Solid rate stats. I like him better than Rixey.
8. Mule Suttles (ne-6-7-8) -- I think Beckwith was a bit better. He certainly did have the 'big year', though.
9. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8-9-10-7-12-12-10-9-10-9) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Wes Ferrell (ne-13-11-10-11-10) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
11. Joe Sewell (ne-12-14-15-14-14-15-12-11-12) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.
12. Biz Mackey (ne) -- Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Could move up or down.
13. Earl Averill (ne-12-13-13) -- Hard guy to judge. Solid ten year prime, but not much else. The best white CF between Cobb/Speaker & Dimaggio, but I don't feel he has the dominance that a short-career outfielder should. Credit for an extra PCL season helps. He's making the ballot which is a credit to him as I tend to be tough on non-shoo-in outfielders
14. Charley Jones (13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3-7-6-5-9-10-8-13-14-14) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.
15. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5-5-7-6-10-11-9-14-15-15) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keepin him out of the HOM so far...

Sisler -- Was on my ballot for over ten years. He's having trouble clawing his way back on.

Rixey -- I did like him better than Faber, but Lyons is a much better candidate. Not far off the ballot.

I'll try to check my Sinins BB encyc this weekend: RCAP vs RCAA for 1B and other positions in those years vs. 1920s onward, which would at least give an estimate as to GM/manager perceptions on where 1B fell on the defensive spectrum at that time.

1949 ballot:

1. (new) Carl Hubbell. A dominant pitcher for nearly a decade.

2. (new-3) Ted Lyons. He won his first ERA+ title at age 41. A true crafstman who maximized his natural abilities to earn substantial late-career value.

3. (new-6-5-5) Earl Averill. He played centerfield at a high offensive and defensive level for eleven years in a strong AL. A mild boost for his final PCL year.

4. (1-3-4-4) John Beckwith. Where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as roughly comparable to Beckwith for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

5. (5-7-6-6) Clark Griffith. He adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record is superior to contemporary HoM inductee Joe McGinnity.

6. (11-8-8-8) Dick Lundy. His career value is a full step above the MLB shortstop glut. Lundy combined exceptional power, speed, and defense, much like Barry Larkin.

7. (6-4-7-7) Edd Roush. His offense in context (five top 5's in OPS+) and his superior defense rank him highly. A weak league keeps him out of the top tier of candidates.

8. (9-12-10-8) Jose Mendez. We ignore Mendez, the best pitcher of the early Cuban leagues, when we promote second-tier 1910s MLB pitchers such as Cicotte and Mays.

9. (8-10-11-11) Joe Sewell. His offensive value places him slightly above other MLB infield candidates (Childs, Doyle, Lazzeri, Jennings, Bancroft, Maranville, and Traynor).

10. (7-9-9-10) Eppa Rixey. His peak in the mid-1920s has real value, as does his large number of above-average innings pitched in his other seasons.

11. (new-5-12-x) Mule Suttles. He's also hard to place, but his credentials are stronger than Chuck Klein's, and Klein comes close to making my ballot. Welcome back, Mule!

12. (4-11-x-13) George Sisler. He is the most difficult player for me to place. One peak year short of a top-200 career. A mild pitching bonus ranks him here.

13. (new-12) Cool Papa Bell. He records a high runs/game ratio several times, indicating his ability to earn extra bases with SBs and on hits. Better, IMO, than Max Carey.

14. (14-15-13-15) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another peakless/long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines belongs in the Hall of Very Good; Beckley, with added defensive credit at 1B, has a borderline HoM case.

15. (12-14-15-x) Wes Ferrell. His ERA+ and (BB+H)/9 are no better than his contemporaries Bridges and Warneke. A unique talent who didn't last long.

16-25: Duffy, Mackey, Leach, Bridges, Jennings, Van Haltren, Redding, Schang, Klein, Williamson.

1949 ballot. Quality pitcher at the top and a catcher down later in the ballot.

1.Carl Hubbell (-). Placing in adjusted ERA+ in National League 1931-1934: 2, 2, 1, 1. Two time MVP. Six times led league in (H + BB)/IP. They didn’t call him Meal Ticket for nothing.

2.Edd Roush (2). From Baseballlibrary.com: “June 8, 1920: The Reds' Edd Roush falls asleep in CF during a long argument in the IF. Heinie Groh goes out to wake him, but the ump ejects Roush for delaying the game.” When we wasn’t sleeping he was hitting .300 and playing some pretty good CF.

3.Ted Lyons (3). Last seven years was in the top 5 in BB/9IP. Made the other team beat him – maybe not so good considering his teams weren’t the best.

4.Hugh Duffy (4). Number of runs scored 1889-1894: 144, 161, 134, 125, 147, 160. Second most hits in the 1890’s to Ed Delahanty.

5.Clark Griffith (5). Another fine control pitcher, his ballot position helped by being one of the better pitchers during the 1890s.

6.Tommy Leach (9). Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Sam Crawford.

7.Earl Averill (16). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and three years in the PCL.

8.Jimmy Ryan (7). His record of 73 home runs by a centerfielder stood til the 1920s.

9.Dick Redding (8). Pitched a good long time in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

10.John Beckwith (10). Others have provided the argument for him in a more detailed fashion. I’m sold enough to place him here.

11.Rube Waddell (6). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.

12.Biz Markey (-). I’m sticking with the assumption of the NeL being strong at the catching position and Raleigh Biz being among the best.

13.Tony Mullane (11). His constant run-ins with the reserve clause cost him playing time and that magic 300 win total.

14.Hughie Jennings (14). A peak to be proud of, especially for a SS. A rough style of play in during his heyday means careers were shorter.

15.Kiki Cuyler (25). Not exclusively a RF, his hitting was very good. Seems like he could have been playing in the big leagues before he did.

Why not me?

16-20:Rixey, McGraw, Cool Papa Bell, Poles, Mike Griffin
21-25:Van Haltren, Willis, Joe Sewell, Suttles, Childs
26-30:Mendez, Pete Browning, Cicotte, Fielder Jones, Sisler
31-35:Bridges, Veach, Roy Thomas, Chance, Burger
36-40:Grimes, Carl Mays, Lundy, Dobie Moore, Dunlap
41-45:Hooper, Shocker, Lazzeri, Lefty Gomez, Beckley
46-50:Tiernan, Chuck Klein, Ben Taylor, Wes Ferrell, Bresnahan

New folks:

Hubbell and Mackey make the ballot. Bridges scores fairly well and has an opportunity to see ballot at some time. Chuck Klein has flashy numbers which gets him above Hack Wilson but that’s faint praise. Lon Warneke – ah, that’s a no thank you. Dick Bartell is way down there between Billy Nash and Jim Bottomley.

Top 10 Returnees off-ballot:

Rixey is the next guy in line. I took him off since I already had 6 pitchers included. He’s in good position otherwise for a return to the ballot. Suttles, once adjusted for park and position, comes up a little short. Sisler and Beckley had completely opposite arguments for the HOM but I’m not sold on either. Sisler is more likely to advance than Eagle Eye though. Ferrell gets hitting bonuses but not too much. He’s not Caruthers since he didn’t play the field in his off days. How much value can you give for the pinch hitting?

There are currently nince guys that I would like to see inducted and another 12 that I wish were on my ballot. Every year it just keeps getting deeper and deeper. Hubbell and Beckwith make my PHOM this year.

1. Carl Hubbell (x, PHOM 1949) - I think he is an easy choice for this spot so I dont' quite understand why he isn't on top of more ballots. Clearly had a better peak than Ted Lyons.

2. Hughie Jennings (2, PHOM 1938) - I like what andrew siegel has to say about him, "The next 8 are very close but if I had to induct only one of those guys I think I'd make room for the only player with a Musial-Mays-Collins level peak who is not a first or second ballot HoMer."

3. Mule Suttles (3, PHOM 1948) - So why is Suttles above Beckwith? Because I am much more certaino f his greatness than I am of beckwith's. Some have concerns that we are electing too many 20's/30's 1B (Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Mize, Leonard) but I dont' see muh difference between Suttles and Willie Stargell. Both were great power hitters with limited defensive abilities hwo had pretty long careers. Stargell is a HOM, so in my book so is Suttles.

4. John Beckwith (4, PHOM 1949) - It took some time to put him in my PHOM just ahead of Jud Wilson and Will Ferrell. So why him and not Wilson? Well, I think they were comparable hitters but that Beckwith was a superior defender and thus had a little more peak value.

5a. Jud Wilson
5. Wes Ferrell (6) - He is not the best pitcher ont he board but it is my belief that his hitting (100 carer OPS+) makes him the best player to have played the position of pitcher. Besides Hubbell of course.

6. Cupid Childs (7, PHOM 1939) - Best 2B of the 1890's and the second best of the entire 19th century next to McPhee. Childs had a strong peak and good career length given his position and era. He even got out of Cleveland in time!

7. Ted Lyons (8) - Lyons is the pitcher that I thought Eppa Rixey was. Pitched a lot of hinningsa and pitched them well while even throwing in a few nice peak years to top it all off.

8. Hugh Duffy (9) - Duffy's peak grades out as better than that of Averill's (schedule adjusted of course) and he had the longer career. Jennings, Childs, and Duffy would round the 1890's out well.

9a. Bill Terry
9. Dick Redding (10) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind Smokey Joe Williams. Right now he is the in/out line for eligible candidates for me.

10. Clark Griffith (11) - Concerns about the level of pitching in the 1890's make his claim as the 4th best pitcher of that decade right hollow. But his 3.90 DERA is still very attractive, better he than Welch.

11. Dizzy Dean (12) - Great peak. A better pitcher than Ferrel, but his jschmeagol-like hitting ability keeps him in the bottom half of my ballot.

12. Rube Waddell (13) - A HOM Character. Had a nice peak and lots of K's. The IP advantage that he has on Dean is mitigated bu the fact that the quality of those innings was replacement level.

13. Eppa Rixey (14) Suffers in comparison to Ted Lyons but he still hangs onto the bottom of my ballot. It will be interesting to compare him to Red Ruffing, something I haven't done yet. It was a mistake to put him in my top 5 earlier.

14. Earl Averill (17) Averill makes his triumphant debut on my ballot be leapfrogging both GVH and Dobie Moore. Why? According toe WS, GVH has more peak, prime, and career value in my system. According to WARP, he only beats Averill on peak. Both WS and WARP grade Averill pretty high, while WS and WARP have disagreements about GVH.

15. George Van Haltren (15) - Best career candidate on the board, non-pitcher division. Unlike Beckley, Hooper, Cross, Rice, and Bell he blends a decent peak into his high career totals.

16-20 Moore, Sisler, Bresnahan, Mendez, Roush
21-25 Willis, Mackey, Browning, Bell, Veach
26-30 Lundy, Monroe, Doyle, Shocker, Berger
31-35 Sewell, Leach, Cravath, Thomas, McGraw
36-40 Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Wilson, Burns
41-45 Taylor, Schang, Klein, Ryan, F. Jones
46-50 Evers, Cuyler, Grimes, Konetchy, Joss

Newbies

22. Biz Mackey - Had a nice peak but littel else outside of 'Just a Friend'...
OH, M-A-C-K-E-Y. Right. Orginally started in the middle of my ballot because of defensive reputation at catcher and long career. Then MLE's showed that the final eight years of his career add little to no value at all. WS estimates then destroyed any hope I had for his peak. He is ranked this high because I still hitnk we must be missing something. A candidate to move down, however.

43. Chuck Klein - I am a peak/prime voter living only an hour outside of Philly, so it is only natural that I do ahve some fondness towards Klein. He looks very good in WARP but WS doesn't like him so much. His peak isnice but is doesn't seperate him from the rest of the OF glut. Right now he is just ahead of Cuyler and Manush and just below Wilson. Not a HOMer.

xx. Tommy Bridges - Hadn't planned on doing much with him until I read and thread and saw how much anumber of voters liked him. After a closer inspection he isnt' making my top 50. Too many years at about 160-180 IP in an era when top guys were throwing 230-250 will take you down a notchin my book. He had Lyons superb decline phase without the high peak or career length.

xx. Dick Bartell - Anyone who likes him must really like Sewell. He fits into that Bartell/Maranville/Tinker/Long glut of SS's. Sicnet they have been pushed off of my top 50, Bartell isn't mentioned above either. By the way I have Sewell ranked at #31.

Required Disclosures
Sewell - I just don't see what the fuss is about. Being the best SS of the 1920's is like being the best president of the 1880's. La-di-Freakin'-da!

Sisler - Just off ballot and will return when we get back into the backlog.

Welch - His 300 wins and high IP totals are purely a function of the era in which he pitched.

Beckley - Bever really oneof the 10 best players in baseball.

Bell - Long, peakless careers aren't really my bag. Are we missing something?

1949 Ballot

My '49 PHoM inductees are Hubbell and Mackey.
(Last 5 votes in parentheses)[PHoM year in brackets]

1. Jake Beckley(4,2,3,4,3)So it has come to this, once again...A very good hitter with a good glove and a long, consistent career--check out his numbers from 1889-95 if you're a peak voter and don't have him on your ballot. [1927]

2. Carl Hubbell(ne)An incredibly dominant pitcher in his prime; he just didn't last quite long enough to top my ballot. [1949]

3. Mickey Welch(5,3,4,5,4) Still high on my ballot, still has 300 wins. [1926]

4. Eppa Rixey(6,4,5,6,5) Starting to get crowded off of the weak-year waiting list by Lyons, Suttles, and Beckwith, but I still hope he'll get in soon. [1939]

5. Burleigh Grimes(7,5,7,8,6) Grimes may be the poster boy for my voting criteria. Long career? Check. Gray Ink? Check. Good hitter and fielder? Check-Check. He may never have been the best pitcher in the league, but I'd want him on my pitching staff any time. [1940]

6. Biz Mackey(ne) I think I was giving him too much credit for his bat on my preliminary ballot. I still think he's the best Negro Leaguer eligible. [1949]

7. John Beckwith(11,6,8,9,8)[1945]
8. Mule Suttles(6,7,7)
Two excellent hitters--If Mackey misses out this year, I'd really like it to be by one of these two.

9. Dick Lundy(10,8,10,11,9)
10. Cool Papa Bell(10)
Yep, 5 guys in a row that didn't play in the major leagues. Two great glovemen here--both underrated. I think Bell's support has been a little on the kneejerk side.

11. Tommy Leach(9,7,9,10,11)A versatile, durable player with an unusual, but valuable career. [1942]

12. Dick Redding(13,10,11,12,12)
13. Jose Mendez(14,11,12,13,13) [1932]
Another Negro League tandem--of the two, I think Redding was the more dominant pitcher, but Mendez was a better all-around player.

14. Carl Mays(12,9,13,14,14) There's not much that separates Mays and Rixey in my mind. Mays played on better teams, so he gets a little less credit. [1939]

15. Ted Lyons(15) Definitely HoM-worthy. A few more seasons or a couple of ERA titles and he'd be up there with Welch.

Obligatoires: (wow, only 4!)
25. Earl Averill
32. Wes Ferrell
49. George Sisler
55. Clark Griffith
Brevity of career is the only mark against their names.

1949:

1. Carl Hubbell. His 1933 was one of the greatest seasons ever. One of only handful of liveball pitchers to best 150 win shares in his best 5 years and terrific career numbers as well.

2. Clark Griffith. Personal favorite 1890s pitcher. Nice career, nice prime. The Rodney Dangerfield of the Hall of Merit.

3. George Sisler. No, he's the Rodney Dangerfield of the Hall of Merit.

4. Ted Lyons. Wow, it's tough to sort out some of these pitchers. He might deserve to be higher than Griffith, but I think Griffith was hurt by contraction, so I'll give the Old Fox the nod.

5. Mule Suttles. Great Negro League hitter.

6. Mickey Welch. Thank you retrosheet. Turns out he earned those 300 wins. Offensive support only gave him 3-4 wins. Defensive support, though a little above average, was actually worse the defensive support of all major non-Galvin pitchers in the 1880s. In 1885, against the Cubs, he faced off against John Clarkson 7 times & won every game.

7. Biz Mackey. Better than Schang, and I have Schang on the ballot. IIRC, he's the #1 choice of both experts and players in the "Cool Papas and Double Duties" book as best Negro Leaguer not in Cooperstown.

8. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

9. Cool Papa Bell. I'm torn on him. On the one hand, I give more credence to reputation with Negro Leaguers, and he's a very high profile one. On the other hand, he strikes me as exactly the sort of person who would be overrated (particularly great at one skill - I skill I think is overrated at that). For now, I'm splitting the difference between where the two different estimates on have are on his ballot placement.

10. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch. Played 14.2 seasons worth of games (including as pitcher) by my reckonin'.

11. Jimmy Ryan. GVH without the ability to pitch. Played 14.6 seasons worth of games, by my reckonin'.

12. Wally Schang. Caught over 1400 games with a 117 OPS+? There's something you don't see everyday.

13. John Beckwith. Much better than I ever would've guessed

14. Jake Beckley. You young'uns ain't going to believe this but in my first few elections I was the Best Friend of Jake (yes, even better than karlmangus). The more I look the less impressed I am. Created a lot of runs for his teams but also created a lot of outs for them.

15. Cupid Childs (9,9,9,15,14). Looking at him again & I think he's better than the infielders I was putting just above him. The D & OBP keep him above Larry Doyle. 10.5 seasons worth of games by my reckonin'.

Off ballot productions:

Wes Ferrell: If I were to go over why I have him off, I'd just be plagarizing the reasons others have already given.

Earl Averill: Had him on my ballot - until I realized I forgot Beckwith. Sisler without the career value.

Hughie Jennings. I used to be the BFoJB - what are the odds I'd be a Jennings supporter?

Close, but no cigar (no particular order): Tommy Leach, Earl Averill, Larry Doyle, Lave Cross Ben Taylor, Cavvy Gravvath, Joe Sewell, Wes Ferrell, Edd Roush, Chuck Klein

Tommy Bridges & Lon Warneke. Both in that Babe Adams, Wilbur Cooper, Tony Mullane bunch of really really nice pitchers, but not as good as the guys on my ballot or near it.

Some changes on my ballot. I've decided to give a big years bonus to pitchers. The Main beneficiaries are Grimes and Dean. Also re-evaluated catcher with Mackey on the ballot. Both Bresnahan and Schang have moved up, but still aren't on my ballot. I also hope to re-evaluate Negro league pitchers since I think that we've been underrating them.

PHOM
Carl Hubbell
Bill Foster

1949 Ballot
1.Carl Hubbell – Elected PHOM in 1949
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
3.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
4.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1945.
5.Ted Lyons – Better peak value and above average value than Rixey
6.Mule Suttles – Not as high a peak as Beckwith, but a better career.
7.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
8.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
9.Burleigh Grimes – Jumps up when I give a big years bonus. Higher peak than Rixey.
10.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
11.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
12.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
13.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position.
14.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
15.Biz Mackey – Prime years and excellent defense are enough to get him on my ballot.

Required Disclosures
Earl Averill - Not too far from my ballot. Decided to give minor league credit.
George Sisler – Too many good candidates to make my ballot.
Clark Griffith – Just doesn’t rate well in my system. Big overachiever though.

New Candidates
Tommy Bridges - Seems like Eppa Rixey lite to me. Not much peak, but quite a few above average seasons. If he could have just pitched another 5 seasons or so after WW2, he might've made my ballot.

Chuck Klein - Decent OPS+, but not much prime value for a corner OF. Close to Babe Herman.

Dick Bartell - Not close to my ballot. Behind Sewell, Bancroft, Tinker, Long as candidates who are off my ballot.

Lon Warneke - Nice peak, but I never got a chance to rank him in my system. Will do that by next week. Definately behind Dean, though.

Off the ballot
16-20 Duffy, Schang, Roush, Mendez, Redding
21-25 Averill, Lundy, Leach, Dean, Bell
26-30 Bresnahan, Sisler, Cooper, McGraw, Williamson
31-35 Waddell, Mays, Poles, Taylor, Griffith
36-40 Tiernan, Dunlap, Van Haltren, Doyle, Sewell
41-45 Traynor, Chance, Burns, McCormick, Bancroft
46-50 Griffin, F. Jones, Wilson, Bond, Berger

1949 ballot.
1. Carl Hubbell (new) By RA+ Pythpat, a 249-150 career, including a 5-year stretch of 21-10, 26-9, 24-11, 20-14, 26-8.
2. John Beckwith (6, 3, 5, 5, 4) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit.
3. Larry Doyle (7, 4, 6, 6, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
4. Joe Sewell (5, 2, 4, 3, 3) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. I've been his best friend; even lowering him a little, I'm probably still tied for his best friend. He nearly got elected once, and there's still a lot there.
5. Ted Lyons (----, 6) By RA+ PythPat, a "main" career of 122-99, followed by a "twilight" career of 135-101. Many good pitchers had an extended twilight of < 200 IP per year, and many pitchers were effective doing that - but of all of them, Lyons was the best.
6. George Van Haltren (3, 5, 7, 8, 8) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
7. Eppa Rixey (8, 6, 8, 9, 9) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Wes Ferrell (11, 7, 9, 10, 10) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
9. George "Mule" Suttles (--, 3, 7, 7) Was he Willie Stargell? Willie McCovey (only shorter)? Or someone else entirely?
10. Earl Averill (--, 10, 11, 11) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
11. Jake Beckley (9, 9, 11, 12, 12) Not much peak, long career.
12. Biz Mackey (new) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
13. Cupid Childs (12, 10, 12, 13, 13) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
14. Hugh Duffy (13, 11, 13, 14, 14) 43rd year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.
15. Tommy Bridges (new) RA+ PythPat 190-124, which is a record that has to be taken seriously. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.

16. Cool Papa Bell (----, 15) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
17. Edd Roush (14, 12, 14, 15, 16) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey. He'll make it back to my ballot.
18. George Sisler (15, 13, 15, 16, 17) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
19. Pie Traynor (16, 14, 16, 17, 18) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy.
20. Frank Chance (19, 15, 17, 18, 19) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
21. Rube Waddell (17, 16, 18, 19, 20) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
22. Jose Mendez (18, 17, 19, 20, 21)
23. Roger Bresnahan (20, 18, 20, 21, 22) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
24. Dick Redding (23, 21, 24, 25, 24)
25. Jimmy Ryan (22, 20, 23, 24, 25)

Jennings doesn't make the top 25 because his peak isn't enough for me. Griffith suffers from lack of IP. They're close. So is Dizzy Dean, so is Cuyler.

Lon Warneke: RA+ Pythpat 184-128, with a solid peak. He could easily be on the ballot - I don't really want to forget him.

Chuck Klein winds up placed similarly to KiKi Cuyler and George Burns. Worthy, but not top 25.

My 1949 ballot:

1. Carl Hubbell - clear number one
2. Ted Lyons - clear number two, now it gets difficult
3. Tommy Bridges - with WWII and PCL credit
4. Earl Averill - with PCL credit
5. Jake Beckley - I'm sticking by Jake
6. Eppa Rixey - inning eater
7. Mule Suttles - one of best NegLg sluggers
8. Chuck Klein - so overrated he's now underrated
9. Joe Sewell - the luster has worn off
10. Tony Lazzeri - a slugging second baseman
11. Edd Roush - very good center fielder
12. George Van Haltren - overlooked 1890s star
13. George Sisler - very good peak
14. John Beckwith - unsure where he belongs
15. Clark Griffith - 1890s star pitcher

Group top tenners not voting for: Hughie Jennings -- he is around 25 on my ballot.

1. Carl Hubbell (n/a) - A no brainer for me.

2. Mickey Welch (3) - Mickey continues to hang out at the top of my ballot.

3. Wes Ferrell (4) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long enough for me to rank him this high.

4. Burleigh Grimes (5) - Tough debate on whether to have him above Rice or not

5. Biz Mackey (n/a) - I love catchers. He's not Santop or Gibson, but he's HOM material in my book. He did reaffirm that Schang should be on my ballot. Only a strong ballot is keeping Schang out of my top 15.

6. Mule Suttles (6) - Not overly confident that I have him too high or too low. This seemed like the best spot to slot him for this year

7. Sam Rice (7) - This is the type of consistency that I love

8. Pie Traynor (8) - One of the best 3b ever

9. Earl Averill (9) - Consistency is key for me...what he could have done had he been in the majors sooner...

10. Ted Lyons (10) - If he had pitched for some good teams, maybe he'd look more like Maddux

11. Eppa Rixey (11) -I've decided that Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

12. George Sisler (12) - I still believe he should be in the HOM. Even his "bad" years were pretty darn good.

13. Clark Griffith (13) - Same old story for Clark

14. Jake Beckley (14) - Not far off from Sisler.

15. Rube Waddell (15) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

16. Wally Schang (16) - Lots of career value for a catcher. I really wish I could justify having him higher right now. A definate HOM'er in my opinion. Just too many other good players on the ballot right now.

17. Joe Sewell (17) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

18. John Beckwith (18) - Just off of the ballot, but no fault of his own. He'll be back on the ballot again soon enough.

19. Cool Papa Bell (n/a) - Bumps Lundy down 2 spots.

20. George Van Haltren (20) - At the bottom of my PHOM list, but on it still the same.

TomH:
I'll try to check my Sinins BB encyc this weekend: RCAP vs RCAA for 1B and other positions in those years vs. 1920s onward, which would at least give an estimate as to GM/manager perceptions on where 1B fell on the defensive spectrum at that time.

Others have posted something similar, on the "differential batting" measure of fielding positions. I have an unlabeled table, decade by fielding position, probably quoted from this forum.

Another approach:
Suppose one fielding position gets an extra 1% share of team defensive credit. How much credit is that, measured by Win Shares, for a fulltime player at that position on an average team?

Kelly - what I was doing was basically doubling the fielding Win Shares for pre-1920 1B, for awhile anyway. But then I realized that's probably not entirely right, because it was more like a catcher thing - the effect wasn't entirely that 'fielding' the position was more skilled or valuable, it's more like just 'being there' reduced your offensive numbers. I'd guesstimate the split was something like 1/3 that fielding the position took more skill and 2/3 that the position deflated numbers, due to the wear and tear on the hands.

So then I started increasing fielding WS by 33% then taking the total and giving them a 7% overall boost. I give catchers a 30% boost for full time catcher play - this is mainly to account for their shorter careers.

The 33% boost is typically on 1.5-3.0 WS for a player, so that moves the range to 2-4 WS per year. A 7% overall boost gives a 25 WS player 1.75 extra WS.

To answer Paul's question, a 1% boost on overall team defensive play:

81-81 = 243 WS.

.52 * 243 WS = 126.36 WS for fielders and pitchers.

126.36 * .325 = 41.067 fielding WS per average team.

41.067 * .01 = .41067 WS are added for a 1% increase in percentage of team credit. This would then deduct .0587 WS for each of the other 7 players, in full time play.

1949 ballot, our 52nd.
Work has yet to slow, but at least now I can see the break coming, maybe in a few weeks...

1. CARL HUBBELL - ERA+ in his nine years with 240+ innings: 193 169 168 149 140 124 122 121 118. What really clinches it is going top-3 in IP in each of the five eye-popping years. Has four useful years beyond the top 9 as well. Maybe slightly overrated by history, but this is a really nice package nonetheless and clearly best on the ballot.
2. MULE SUTTLES - I do significantly discount for his extremely favorable parks; not as convinced on the 'pitcher's park' data; I don't particularly discount for his defense; but I do factor in the likelihood of his OBP not being dazzling. That's 3 discounts out of 4 options, basically, yet I still see him as second-best on this ballot.

3. TED LYONS - First or second in IP four times. Top 6 in ERA eight times. Blew out his arm in mid-career 1931, and the White Sox had the brains to use him in fewer IP per year thereafter. I can see how some would downplay the value of the innings by more than this, but it's still 4200 IP of 118 ERA+. Works for me.
4. CLARK GRIFFITH - Glad to see further (and more profound) recent analysis of how and why the 1890s are underrepresented. It's remarkable how much better Griffith's W-L was than the teams he pitched for. At least he is getting some fresh looks of late from the academy.
5. EPPA RIXEY - Moving ahead of some colleagues as I review the WW I issue, and flipflops with Jennings. If only he had one huge year. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately, while Rixey sits on the fence. I may have to consider league quality more deeply.
6. JOHN BECKWITH - Passed Sisler and Childs last year. I keep digesting his thread notes and relenting slightly each year, but I'm still not all the way sold on him. A great player for a time and glad to see him get some deserved props, though.
7. GEORGE SISLER - I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. JAKE BECKLEY - Moves up four slots this year after further review. Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
9. HUGHIE JENNINGS - Dropped three slots last year, gets one back this year. One solid season short of an "elect me" slot on my ballot, but the best player in baseball nods and the difficulty of the era have him back in the running for me. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
10. CUPID CHILDS - Continues to hang in there. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot.
11. WES FERRELL - 117 ERA+ not dazzling, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Significant hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player. Do Caruthers voters tend to favor him more?
12. COOL PAPA BELL - We're wise to realize the results don't match the rep, but great fielder-long career-decent hitter is quite valuable.
13. MICKEY WELCH - If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the old Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
14. WALLY SCHANG - Ironically benefited from the Mackey chatter; looked at both, I like Wally better.
15. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'


JUST MISSED/NEW/TOP 10 RETURNEES
EDD ROUSH - I have a problem with the games he missed in a lot of years, but his D and high level of play combined with career length gives Roush the nod. I wonder if Roush will be a barrier to a lot of Berger-Averill types. Or maybe Sheckard makes people look more favorably on the group.
BIZ MACKEY - I see more Freehan or R Ferrell than anything else so far, and not sure he contributed as much as the countless other Negro League candidates we're mulling.
DICK LUNDY - He really does present a problem for Sewell, doesn't he? I think Sewell needed to be a slightly better fielder and Lundy needs a tiny bit more evidence.
JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them.
EARL AVERILL - I guess he can beat out Roush with a significant minor-league credit, and I'll continue to weigh both. Doesn't quite match Berger's monster year, but otherwise generally a slightly better player for slightly longer.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough.
PETE BROWNING - Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time.

I watched the balloting for several “decades” before I finally jumped in myself. And I watched supporters of candidates the likes of Bob Caruthers, Charlie Bennett, and Dickey Pearce bemoan their struggle to rise to the top of a crowded ballot. I’m beginning to see how this works first-hand.

1949 Ballot
1)Carl Owen Hubbell
A dominating pitcher. Five Top-10 Win Shares finishes, including 1936 MVP. A shame all most people know about is the five strikeouts in the All-Star Game.
2)George Suttles – “Mule”
I promised to factor in a comparison between Suttles and Sisler. Mule came out ahead. Durability and longer prime give him the edge.
3)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
I can’t bring myself to punish him for the strange shape of his career. His highs are exceptional, and his lows are not so low as to be invisible, like Jennings or Hack Wilson.
4)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I notice I’m all alone up here now. Sigh. I still find his overall career is better than his closest competitors. So here he will stay.
5)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
I appreciate Dr. Chaleeko explaining the reasoning behind discounting the Chris Cobb projections. But I find that even the revised figures place him atop, rather than in the middle of, the CF glut. I mean, is there such a thing as “only” 360 Win Shares? Plus the career is the kind I usually reward with a high placement.
6)Theodore Amar Lyons
I’m still figuring out how to factor in credit for being part of the Greatest Generation. I do see that I’ve undervalued Ted’s contribution, so I’m moving him up. He probably has room to move further, although I don’t think the electorate is going to give me a shot.
7)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
8)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too. I’m guessing that Beckley gets more votes because he’s been on the ballot longer.
9)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. And I’ll be rhyming his named with “jewel” until someone decides to correct me.
10)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
I continue to gain respect for Rixey’s career. Since I tend toward career stats, I figure my vote ought to reflect that.
11)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
As is so often the case, I am ranking him cautiously low in this first year of eligibility. Although his projected numbers are not as gaudy as was anticipated, he still strikes me as the best catcher on the ballot, and a very good one at that. I’m giving a lot of credence to peer and expert rankings here, so your mileage may vary.
12)Hugh Duffy
Gets an edge over the next two center fielders on the list for being more dominant in his day. More peak-oriented than I usually like, but still a very balanced career.
13)Howard Earl Averill
14)Edd J Roush
Quite similar, which may be why they’re right next to each other in Bill James’ ranking of right fielders. I’m giving Averill a slight edge for a tiny-bit-better prime.
15)John Beckwith
Still hanging in on my ballot. I have a sneaking suspicion that what I don’t like about Albert Belle is what I don’t like about Beckwith.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Love his peaks. Hate the shortness of his career. I like him more as a candidate than Dizzy Dean, who has outstanding peak. I like Grimes and Rixey, so I guess that tells you where I stand on Wes.
Clark Calvin Griffith
My last re-evaluation of pitchers did put him in a better light, but not much. I actually moved Vic Willis up ahead of him. Still not there.

1. Carl Hubbell (n/e) -- Great pitcher. Cool telescope.

2. Mule Suttles (2) -- this might be his year.

3. Ted Lyons (3) – would have made the top half of the ballot even without WWII credit.

4. Eppa Rixey (4) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Loses out to Lyons largely as a result of having been in a shorter war.

5. Jake Beckley (5) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top.

6. Gavy Cravath (6) – I’m disappointed that the minor league stats don't appear to have started a Cravath groundswell.

7. Jose Mendez (8) -- We seem to love Wes Ferrell. I think Ferrell was no Jose Mendez.

8. Dolf Luque (9) -- It took the World War player dearth for Luque to finally get a solid shot at the majors, despite numerous seasons of top-rate pitching at a young age in Cuba, the Negro Leagues, and the top white minors. He doesn't get credit for more than he did, but he does get to fill out the left side of his bell curve a little. Those Cuban league games counted too, and I think they have to be considered in creating the "big picture".

9. Mickey Welch (10) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented?

10. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (12) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Cupid Childs (off) -- While hardly earth-shattering, I ended up dropping my bottom three guys (Browning, Monroe, Leach) for three who I had down in the next tier. Generally, this represents an evolving recognition of the tougher competition 1890s guys had, compared to the larger leagues of earlier and later generations.

13. Clark Griffith (off) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

14. Hugh Duffy (off) -- Hey, he's in the Hall of Fame!

15. Cannonball Dick Redding (off) -- He was my #16 last year. Biz Mackey is hovering below, and might be hear instead when I'm done absorbing all the info.

My #1 and #11 were elected. Carl Hubbell and Biz Mackey debut in 1949. In 1950, the trio of Paul Waner, Cronin and Dihigo crowd out the backlog. Jimmie Foxx and Bob Johnson lead the class of 1951.

1)Carl Hubbell – Not an inner circle HOFer, still top 100 all-time.

2)Ted Lyons (2,ne,ne) – The only other player on this ballot that I’m certain was one of the top 200 players in history.

3)George Van Haltren (3,3,3) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 41st year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4)Clark Griffith (4,4,4) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

5)Tommy Leach (5,5,5) – Every time I think of dropping him, to get in line with the consensus, I look at the guys below him and go, “nah”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated. Voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voter are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard

6)Earl Averill (6,6,6) – Ranks above Roush on strength of league and minor league credit, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

7)Jimmy Ryan (7,7,7)— Most extra-base hits 1888-98:
<I>1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan

8)Edd Roush (8,8,8) – Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

9)George Sisler (9,9,9) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

10)Eppa Rixey (10,10,10) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

11)Wes Ferrell (12,11,11) – Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

12)Biz Mackey – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available, knocking Bresnahan off after a 28-year run. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit he’d have been Biz.
13) Cool Papa Bell (-,ne,ne) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s two best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are ++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Could move up.

14)Mule Suttles (15,15,15) – Good slugger. Could move up.

15)Hughie Jennings (14,13,13) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis

John Beckwith – About half the electorate is sold on him. That’s all it takes to be a HoMer in this environment. For me, he’s fourth in my NeL queue.

1949

#1) Carl Hubbell [n/a] – Quite clearly, in my opinion, the best on the ballot this year. Nearly 3600 innings + a scintillating 130 ERA+ = obvious #1 choice.

#2) Mule Suttles [3] – You could play LF like my grandma wearing a blindfold, and I’d still vote you into the HOM if you put up an OPS+ of 137 in 10,000 plate appearances.

#3) Ted Lyons [4] – If I could give a HOM vote to Jimmie Dykes for maximizing Lyons’ value, I would. Not quite Hubbell, but still a very strong candidate. I’d like to see him go in this year.

#4) John Beckwith [5] – Discounted a bit as I was overestimating his playing time. If we’re picking shortstops, I’d still rather have Beckwith’s bat than Sewell’s glove.

#5) George Van Haltren [6] - Long career, OPS+ above 120 (sort of a personal benchmark figure for me, the sabermetric equivalent of 2500 hits), and held his own as a pitcher. Gets a small bonus simply due to his versatility in 1888-90.

#6) Dick Lundy [10] – Further re-evaluation makes me think we should seriously be reconsidering Lundy. If he hit better than Sewell (probably), played more games at SS than Sewell (would have according to Chris Cobb’s estimates), and was the fielder par excellence that his reputation seems to suggest, why is he comparitively so far down the ballot?

#7) Edd Roush [7] - Similar to GVH: higher OPS+ but fewer plate appearances due to injuries. Also think he’s being overrated, but I might re-examine the strength of his league for the next ballot.

#8) Eppa Rixey [8] – See Jake Beckley, but pretend he’s a pitcher.

#9) Jake Beckley [9] – See Eppa Rixey, but pretend he’s a first baseman.

#10) Burleigh Grimes [11] - At first glance not as impressive as Rixey, and initially that 107 ERA+ scared me off, but as Kelly from SD pointed out once upon a time, Burleigh Arland was among the top three pitchers in his league six times, and one of the two best five times. Low defensive support, as well, gets him on the ballot.

#11) Earl Averill [n/a] – Now confident he belongs on the ballot, especially when compared to Klein. And this placement isn’t factoring in PCL credit, so may move up.

#12) Wally Schang [13] – Mackey sans decline, but without the glove.

#13) Clark Griffith [14] - One huge year (1898) and at least five others where I’d say he was an all-star candidate. I’ve never been a huge fan of Griffith’s, but he keeps hanging on to the bottom of my ballot.

#14) Biz Mackey [n/a] – Joe Girardi called. He wants his career back.

#15) Wes Ferrell [12] – Decided I was overrating his hitting ability, so I’ve dropped him down a few slots. Still an impressive pitcher with a peak that I can’t disregard.

Disclosures:

#20) George Sisler – Still on my radar. Will make the ballot eventually – give him ten years or so.

#34) Hughie Jennings - Five years without anything to back it up isn’t going to do it for me. I like a little more longevity in my candidates.

Tommy Bridges is just off the ballot, tentatively placed at #18. Dick Bartell is behind Joe Sewell, and see the entry for “Lundy, Richard” for my thoughts on Sewell. Warneke is somewhere below Bridges, not in my top 35. Nor is Klein, who falls victim to the Park Effects From Hell.

Sorry about whiffing on 1948.

I am mostly using Win Shares with a bonus for peak seasons. Discounting pre-1893 pitching accomplishments, and trying to balance the positions better.

1)CARL HUBBELL – 305 win shares, huge peak enough to put him at the top of the class.
2)COOL PAPA BELL – If he was playing in MLB from 1930 to 1945, and 45 steals would have led either in steal on all but four occasions, how many SB titles would he have?
3)MULE SUTTLES – I think he would have been at least even with Greenberg.
4)EDD ROUSH – I put him ahead of Averill due to his slightly longer MLB career, and slightly higher peak.
5)CARL MAYS – He appears to be the best combination of peak and career length among the non-Meal Ticket pitching candidates.
6)EARL AVERILL
7)WALLY BERGER – These three centerfielders are essentially a group, and in the end I decided to rank them by career win shares. Berger probably has the best peak, and who knows what Averill losses credit for in the PCL.
8)ROGER BRESNAHAN – I think that the argument for him about being the best catcher in the period has considerable merit. Between Ewing and Hartnett he is the best.
9)TOMMY LEACH – That long career and solid peak, I still see him as a top 10.
10)WALLY SCHANG – 2nd best catcher between 1900 and 1925.
11)TED LYONS – Will look at him harder next year to see if maybe I should have him ahead of Mays, longer career of course.
12)LARRY DOYLE – If he was a gold glover he would probably already be in.
13)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list.
14)HUGHIE JENNINGS - His peak probably puts your team over the hump for the flag, trumps the problems of short career

1939 Ballot:

1.Carl Hubbell- I’d rank him around #10 on the list of HoM pitchers we’ve seen so far. Goes into my PHoM with Bill Terry this year.

2.Mule Suttles- One of the all time greats. Went into my PHoM two years ago.

3.Ted Lyons- I grossly misplaced him last year. More career Win Shares and WARP scoring than Hubbell.

4.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

5.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938.

6.Chuck Klein- Career Runs Created = 1364, OPS+ = 137, and more Black Ink (60) than any other eligible player.

7.Wes Ferrell- Over 30 Win Shares/season.

8.Earl Averil- Consistent if not exactly mind-blowing career. Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

9.Burleigh Grimes- Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 213, Career Win Shares = 286, excellent WARP scores.

10.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

11.Rube Waddell- Career Win Shares = 240; WS3 = 100, WS5 = 145, over 30 WS/season, Black Ink = 36, Gray Ink = 158.

12.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

13.Sam Rice- Best career of eligible RFs. Career Win Shares = 327, Career Runs Created = 1467. Seems to jump around in my rankings more than anyone.

14.Cool Papa Bell- Sadly, this is probably as high as Cool Papa will get.

15.Jimmy Ryan- Career WS = 316, Career WARP1 = 119, Career WARP3 = 84.5, Career Runs Created = 1338, B+ WS Defender. Awesome career, overlooked due to CF glut.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

16.Jake Beckley- Career WS = 318, Career WARP1 = 116. Career Runs Created = 1461, which exceeds Dan Brouthers’ 1445. Just too many ahead of him right now.

17.Dizzy Dean- Currently reading a biography on Dean… should be in the Hall on character alone. One hilarious anecdote after another.

18.Clark Griffith- Drops to #8 in my eligible pitcher rankings.

19.Hack Wilson- C+ in CF isn’t blowing me away. Nice peak, not enough career.

20.John Beckwith- Too much talent ahead of him.

21.Tommy Leach- Career Win Shares = 329, WARP1 = 113.7, WARP3 = 74.8.

22.Pete Browning- Slowly fading into obscurity, despite the 162 OPS+.

Thanks!

15)VIC WILLIS – probably the last time My Pet Candidate makes my ballot, but no better than Dean or Rixey or Warneke or …..
Really thought hard about voting forElden Auker
, the only Alum of my school that has any chance of getting a vote.


16-30 Dean, Traynor, Warneke, H. Wilson, Lazzeri, Waddell, Duffy, W. Cooper, Redding, Mendez, Moore, Grimes, Sewell, Sisler, Myer.


Disclosures – Beckwith – Not convinced he is Dick Allen, am convinced he is at least Bill Madlock and probably Edgar Martinez.

Griffith and Rixey, in the 35 to 40 range.

I thought I would check in at lunch to see what was happening, and WOW: 5 ballots posted in 35 minutes. Y'all can mosy down to the post office now and drop off those lovely filled-in 1040 forms. While you're grumbling, think of us whose paycheck you provide. Many thanks to all of you honest taxpayers out there, fair system or not.

1. Carl Hubbell (n/e) -- Great pitcher. Cool telescope.

Yup! The Hale Telescope at Palomar just opened this 'year' and 60-year old Edwin Hubble -- discoverer of the "redshift" and former basketball coach of Indiana's New Albany HS -- was the first to use it. At 200 inches its 'now' the largest telescope in the world. Who knows what cool stuff they'll find with that. :-)

Hubble info

"In his younger days, he was noted more for his athletic abilities rather than his intellectual genius: he won seven first places and a third placing in a single high school meet in 1906. That year he also set a state record for high jump in Illinois."

Hmmm... looks like Hubble might have been a good ballplayer himself! :-)

1 (-)Carl Hubbell--I guess he's not quite a no brainer, but that's a picture of a complete pitcher for a long time.

2 (3)Ted Lyons--I loved the comment this week from someone about Lyons being what Rixey's supporters were wishing Rixey to be. Lyons never had an outstanding peak, but that's a hella career.

3 (-)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

4 (4)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

5 (-)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

6 (-)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

7 (8)Joe Sewell
8 (9)John Beckwith--Due to defensive concerns, I'd have a hard time putting him above Sewell. However, a reconsideration of him means he'll probably be on the ballot for awhile.

9 (7)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

10 (13)Burleigh Grimes--Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

11 (11)Mule Suttles--For now, I don't see him ranking higher than Beckwith. I promise to investigate him further in the future.

12 (10)Roger Bresnahan--The last time we had a catcher with an OPS+ this high, that had a career length in the high teens, that played several other positions with some regularity, we voted him in right away (Buck Ewing).

13 (-)Lon Warneke--WARP numbers are nearly identical to Shocker.

14 (15)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

15 (-)Biz Mackie--Definitely took a huge fall from where I expected him to be. Based on the evidence coming out, I can't see Mackie rating above Bresnahan.

Dropping off: Donie Bush, Eddie Cicotte

Top 10 omissions: Griffith and Averill are both about 10 slots off my ballot, and both appear to be mired in their respective gluts. Rixey lacks the requisite peak to make my ballot.

8. Chuck Klein - so overrated he's now underrated
Hughie Jennings -- he is around 25 on my ballot.

Wow. I'm interested in the logic behind this ranking, because I see Klein as having an argument that is similar to Jennings though much weaker. What am I missing?

******

6.Chuck Klein- Career Runs Created = 1364, OPS+ = 137, and more Black Ink (60) than any other eligible player.
Jennings -- no mention at all.

******

If it's the black ink that I'm missing, then, well yes, Klein did get a lot of black ink, but it was Baker Bowl in the 1920's/30's, so much of it was like "Colorado black ink" today.

My first ballot back! I sat myself in 1948 since I didn't feel I was quite ready.

1)Carl Hubbell- He edges Lyons slightly in both peak and career value by my measures. Hubbell's a no-brainer imho.
2)Ted Lyons- Long career; strong peak. Another no-brainer.
3)Mule Suttles- I love Suttles peak and I've got him slightly better than Cool Papa's career value case.
4)Cool Papa Bell- I could go either way on him and Suttles. I expect both to make it eventually.
5)John Beckwith- Here's a guy I wasn't familiar with prior to this project. Good strong career value and a great peak. I think he's a no-brainer; he just needs to wait a few elections.
6)Earl Averill- Here's a guy I thought I'd have higher before I started researching. I still believe he should be in. He was a star caliber player for almost his whole career. He just cut out the fluff at both ends.
7)Edd Roush- I've got Roush in a dead heat with Averill. He's in, in my book.
8)Roger Bresnahan- Great peak, could've used a couple more average seasons. I'm iffy on him, but my gut still says in.
9)Biz Mackey- Its close but Bresnahan's peak edge is larger than Mackey's career edge. I gave Mackey a little credit for 1932, but not much; only 2 WS above replacement. If its proven that he played in Japan in 1932, I'll give him a little more credit; if its proven he was injured, I'll take it away.
10)Clark Griffith- Great long career. I'll say 'in', but he's the cutoff on this ballot.
11)George Sisler- Sisler's peak advantage over Beckley is enormous. Beckley's career advantage is slight.
12)Jake Beckley- See Sisler
13)Hughie Jennings- Its hard to ignore those 5 seasons. What if Albert Pujol's last good year was 2005? Has he done enough to get in?
14)Vic Willis- Good peak. I think he deserves more second looks than he's gotten.
15)Eppa Rixey- Great career, but nothing peak-wise to speak of.

Wes Ferrell- I've read the comparisons of Ferrell to Grove and agree that Ferrell had to face tougher lineups. I agree that WS does not fully credit Ferrell for his ability. Even after giving him what I consider to be a 'generous' bonus for this, I still can't justify putting him on the ballot. He's still behind Rube Waddell and Jim McCormick; 2 guys who are off my ballot.

'I REALLY tried to figure out why everyone loves Hubbell so much. It is hard when msot of the comments are along the lines of "Obvious #1", when he seems nothing of the sort to me. He is 20th in WS out of the players I am considering.'
Pitchers accumulate less WS than Hitters. Case for Hubbell:
1)2 MVPs
2)Career 130 ERA+(and he probably hung on about 4 years too long at the end)
3)1.79 career World Series ERA in 50.3 IPs. This would be over 200 ERA+
4)Led the NL in ERA+ 3 times and was top5 4 more times.
5)Blows away Black ink, gray ink, HOF standards, and HOF Monitor ratings. He's the 16th best pitcher all-time in gray-ink and the worst he finishes in any of these is 32nd all time.
6)9-time allstar
7)Using Winshares, he has more WS over replacement for career than Lyons or Rixey and they played longer. And he's got a much better peak than the 2 of them.

3 (-)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

He also kicked butt in Micro League Baseball.

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 164 OPS+ over 7,419 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

2. CARL HUBBELL, P. 355 RSAA, 256 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 130 ERA+ in 3,591 inninigs. Why so much love for Hubbell? 355 RSAA!!!

3. DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 122 OPS+ over 9,684 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense puts him ahead of Sewell. Comp is Joe Cronin.

4. TED LYONS, P. 286 RSAA, 243 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,162 innings. Somewhat the forgotten man among great 1930’s players.

5. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

6. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for Santop.

7. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

8. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

9. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

10. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

11. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

12. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

13. MULE SUTTLES, LF/1B. MLE of .366 OBP and .538 SLG over 10,163 PAs. After adjusting for parks and eras, I think he’s very close to Ben Taylor offensively, but a little less valuable defensively.

14. EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.


15. BIZ MACKEY, C. . MLE of .359 OBP and .393 SLG. A .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher had to be a very valuable player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:
NEWBIES:
ALL NEWBIES either made ballot or were not close.
RETURNEES:

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP. 321 RCAP. 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not quite as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

Really thought hard about voting forElden Auker
, the only Alum of my school that has any chance of getting a vote Are you a fellow Kansan Mike?

1949

1. Carl Hubbell (-)--Not as dominant as some of the recent top players, but still clearly the best of this ballot.

2. Pete Browning (2)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

3. Mule Suttles (4)--Why do all the newly eligible Negro Leaguers have animal nicknames? Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them.

4. John Beckwith (7)--Yet another bump for Beckwith as I become more and more convinced of his worthiness.

5. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

6. Hughie Jennings (6)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

7. Cupid Childs (8)--Nice to see Cupid getting some love. . .(1938)

8. Tommy Leach (9)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

9. Clark Griffith (10)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

10. Larry Doyle (11)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

11. George Sisler (13)--Comparison with Terry convinces me I was underrating him. New PA numbers inspires a bump for him and Bell above Sewell and Williamson.

12. Cool Papa Bell (14)--Long career, moderate peak. I might be overrating him--he may belong below Rixey or Maranville, but I’m fairly confident he was better than them.

13. Joe Sewell (12)--In danger of either being elected or becoming underrated. Well, not so much anymore. . .

14. Ed Williamson (15)--Still no Ezra Sutton. Sad to see there's only one other person still voting for him.

15. Carl Mays (17)--It’s a WARP vs. Win Shares thing with Ferrell and Mays.

16. Wes Ferrell (18)
17. Jose Mendez (16)
18. Dave Bancroft (19)
19. Roger Bresnahan (20)
20. Ted Lyons (22)
21. Eppa Rixey (23)
22. Dick Redding (21)
23. Hugh Duffy (24)
24. George Van Haltren (25)
25. Ed Roush (26)

I agree with Jimd. I see no way in which Klein's peak is as good as Jennings and their primes are similar despite the brevity of Jennings career. Was Klein the better hitter? Yes, so if you use some form of RC or OPS+ to measure peak Klein, wins, but Jennings played a great SS during the years that mattered while Klein played played corner OF. Klein also played in one of the greatest hitter's parks ever. I don't see voting for Klein and not having Jennings on your ballot somewhere.

Then again, I am one of the BFOHJ.

1.Mule Suttles
2.Carl Hubbell

Suttles had a similar skill set to Willie Stargell, and their projected WS totals are comparable: 370 WS/21 years for Stargell, 353 WS/19 years for Suttles (Suttles WS are based on old MLE’s; the new MLE’s should give him even more WS). Probably had a better peak than Stargell, though perhaps not as good as a career. So call Suttles Willie-Stargell-lite, or Diet Pops. Long career, tremendous power, top of the ballot.

Hubbell had a great run from 1931-1937, with an ERA+ of 151 in over 2000 innings, but did not have the career that Suttles had.

3.Earl Averill
4.John Beckwith
5.Jake Beckley

Both Averill and Beckwith make big leaps up my ballot. Averill had a very good ten-year prime from 1929-1938, and was a great player in the PCL for a couple of seasons before that. He was a comparable hitter to Beckwith, but likely had more defensive value.

While there are some questions about Beckwith’s defense, baseball history is not exactly littered with guys who could play SS/3B and hit .330 with power. Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher.

6.Eppa Rixey
7.Ted Lyons

Rixey’s career W-L was 266-251, Lyons was 262-230; at a glance, it seems Rixey’s teams were better, but I haven’t checked yet, and I could easily be wrong. Rixey has the edge in IP, but it was easier to get batters’ out in the teens than in the thirties. Both could have war credit, but Lyons was in his 40s, while Rixey was 27 during the year he missed. Lyons has a higher peak, but was only starting 20 games in his best seasons; Rixey looks more impressive as a full-time starter. I’ll give Rixey the edge, but they’re damn close.

8.Wally Schang
9.Clark Griffith

I took a long, hard look at Biz Mackey, but in the end put Schang on the ballot. Obviously Mackey has the defensive edge over Schang, and is projected for considerably more games at catcher. But Mackey had three seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, while Schang had nine; the next highest OPS+ for both catchers was 111. And Mackey’s defense would not have been as valuable in the major leagues, because there was far less basestealing and (presumably) bunting than the NeL. I'm forced to conclude that Schang was better.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

10.George Sisler
11.Rube Waddell
12.Jose Mendez

At age 29, Sisler would have seemed to be a lock for the HoM. He had a great run from 1917-1922, hitting .407 and .420 in a couple of seasons, and was first or second in stolen bases every year for five years. He also played at a position which had not seen a dominant star since the 1890s.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

Jose Mendez makes my ballot for what I think is the first time. There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in his favor: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher—or even player—to come out of Cuba. It will be very interesting to compare him to Martin Dihigo next year.

13.Cool Papa Bell
14.Tommy Leach
15.Ned Williamson

Last year, I looked at Bell’s OPS+ and called no joy. But, in the end, I like long careers, and it’s very difficult to ignore a guy who projects to between 370-420 win shares. Leach moves down my ballot, but I still like his combination of good hitting and excellent defense at two key positions. Williamson wins the “infielder of the 19th Century” spot: better career than Jennings, better defense than Childs.

16.Hugh Jennings
17.Cupid Childs
18.Wes Ferrell

Ferrell and Mickey Welch are the players that I find the toughest to gauge. Traditional stats and Win Shares see Ferrell as essentially the same type of player as Carl Mays (to be fair, James has Mays at #38 and Ferrell at #40, well within HoM range). WARP sees Ferrell as something more special, but I don’t trust WARP. The era during which he pitched, plus the value of his hitting, does suggest that he could be underrated, but right now Ferrell will continue to hang just off my ballot.

19.Edd Roush
20.Larry Doyle
21. Biz Mackey
22.Mike Tiernan
23.George Van Haltren
24.Jimmy Ryan
25.Vic Willis
26. Mickey Welch
27.Jim McCormick
28.Roger Bresnahan
29.Hugh Duffy
30.Carl Mays

1949 BALLOT (Gadfly)

1. John Beckwith
2. Gavy Cravath
3. Dick Redding
4. Cool Papa Bell
5. Charley Jones
6. Mule Suttles
7. Carl Hubbell
8. Biz Mackey
9. Dick Lundy
10. Roger Bresnahan
11. Earl Averill
12. Edd Roush
13. Bill Monroe
14. Tony Mullane
15. George Sisler

Chuck Klein is very interesting, but directly comparable, and inferior, to both Hack Wilson and Wally Berger.

1. Mule Suttles (2), St.L - Nwk. (--), 1B / LF (‘23-‘42) (1946) – Just loses out on all the peak measures to Carl, but my calc of his career value is just above Hubbell. Hubbell’s sub-replacement hitting gives Suttles the ’49 crown.
2. Carl Hubbell (n/a), N.Y. (N), SP (’24-’42) (1949) – Pretty easily the best pitcher on the ballot. Kid Nichols is a great comparable according to the translated stats. Top 30 all-time to date.
3. Ted Lyons (3), Chic. (A), SP (’24-’42) (1949) – Pretty easily the No. 2 pitcher on the ballot.
--. Jud Wilson, Balt. (--), 3B / 1B (’22-’38) –
4. John Beckwith (5), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but definitely worthy by the numbers.
5. Biz Mackey (n/a), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – Catcher bonus helps him immensely of course (he’d be in Dick Bartell territory w/out); Santop is obviously the better rate player, but Mackey’s guesstimated 2300 more AB’s closes the race to a photo finish. I think he’ll go in pretty soon on my ballot, but I’ll take Suttles, Wilson and Beckwith first.
6. Cool Papa Bell (9), St.L (--), CF (’24-’42) – Bid McPhee is the comp for me. My guestimate is that Bell has the better EQA and longer career. The A+ fielding is at a different (and lesser) position but McPhee was at the top of my ballot, and Bell would be too – except I’d first take the guys ahead of him on this list.
7. Joe Sewell (6), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – On a second look, I can’t justify Sewell over Cool Papa Bell.
8. George Van Haltren (7), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.
9. Jimmy Ryan (8), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support.
10. Dick Lundy (10), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – I see a comparison here with Frank Grant. Those who liked Grant should see something worthy in Lundy. As such, my guess is he makes the P-Hall and falls short of the group HOM.
11. Tommy Bridges (n/a), Detr. (A), SP (’31-’43) – Urban Shocker with close to 400 more IP.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
12. Eppa Rixey (11), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
13. Ben Taylor (12), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.
14. Jake Beckley (13), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.
15. Harry Hooper (14), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.


Wes Ferrell – Larry French almost jumps him on the list. He drops off the in favor of 3 rookies. He’ll be under consideration for a long while.
Earl Averill – I think Averill only tops Van Haltren with a steep timeline adjustment. My system tries to counteract that somewhat while still acknowledging that competition improves over time. I see Earl as close to (but below) the Beckley / Hooper / F.Jones group among OF/1B. It’s a judgment call, but I’ll stay with the old timers over the rookie.
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
George Sisler – I’ve had no love for Caruthers or Sisler, only a little love for Dean. You’d think a Cardinals fan would show more favor to the borderline players from St.Louis. At least I had Wallace on top once.

Ferrell, Averill, Griffith & Sisler were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15.

1949 Ballot:

Two strong new candidates keep the backlog at bay.

1. Wes Ferrell –
I was surprised to see Ferrell coming out slightly ahead of Hubbell in my system, but the differences are explainable. Ferrell had 6 seasons with 25+ WS, Hubbell had 5. Similarly Ferrell had 6 seasons with 8+ WARP1, while Hubbell had 4. Over their 9 year primes (which coincided over the years 1929-37), Ferrell accumulated 85.6 WARP1 compared to 78.8 for Hubbell. Hubbell may have pitched more against the top teams, but Ferrell faced more difficult circumstances, pitching for second division teams in the high scoring league and in hitters’ parks. Hubbell lasted longer, but I don’t give much credit for seasons spent as an average or below-average player.

While I’m pleased to see Ferrell getting support, I think he remains significantly underappreciated by the electorate.

2. Carl Hubbell –
A great pitcher, and an easy choice for the HoM.

3. Mule Suttles –
How many home runs might he have hit in the majors? In the Negro Leagues, Suttles hit 40 HR/550 AB, so a conservative MLE rate might be 32/550. If we apply that to Chris’s estimate of about 9200 AB, we’re looking at approximately 535 career HR. If he had finished ahead of Foxx (who had 534), Suttles would have ranked second on the all time list when he retired, where he would have remained until Mantle/Killebrew/Mays/Aaron passed him in the 1960s. (That’s assuming, of course, that Charleston or Gibson didn’t finish their careers with even more.)

4. Ted Lyons –
Reevaluation bumps him up a little, with some credit for WWII service.

5. Dizzy Dean –
Had one of the best 5-year pitching peaks of the live ball era. I don’t understand why he gets many fewer votes than Jennings; I see their HoM cases as essentially identical. Both of their cases rest mostly on their 5 year peaks. Dean’s 5-year peak in WS ranks fifth among post-1920 pitchers, while Jennings’ ranks 11th among pre-1940 position players. I’d call them the same.

6. Hughie Jennings –
One of the greatest defensive shortstops in history, and for five seasons his offense was superb too. I’d like to see the HoM honor a few of the sprinters as well as the distance runners.

7. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL.

8. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder.

9. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones.

10. John Beckwith –
Almost certainly the best hitter on the ballot.

11. José de la Caridad Méndez –
As you’ve probably noticed, I’m not averse to short-career pitchers. Méndez resembles Lyons a bit by making his way back to the top late in his career, albeit with a lighter work load.

12. Roger Bresnahan –
The greatest major league catcher of the deadball era.

13. Tommy Leach –
6 seasons with 25+ WS; A+ fielder at 3B and CF. Similar to Carey and Sheckard.

14. Biz Mackey –
He’ll eventually make it into my personal HoM.

15. Buzz Arlett –
For the 14 seasons he spent as an outfielder, I see him as about halfway between Heilmann and Hack Wilson – he hit for average and for power and drew walks. Throw in a couple of seasons as a very good pitcher, and he’s ballot worthy. His fielding wasn’t so bad as to negate all of that.

16. Clark Griffith –
I feel that all of my top 20 are really HoM-worthy. In the 1930s voting for 15 candidates was plenty, but now I wish I could vote for 20.

17. Cool Papa Bell
18. Urban Shocker
19. George Burns
20. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals:

Tommy Bridges (# 41) and Lon Warneke (# 43) were very good pitchers. I’ve always felt sympathetic toward Chuck Klein, hammering out all those hits in the Baker Bowl for a pathetic team, but I have to admit he was not one of the top 300 players in history. I have him at # 71. Dick Bartell probably would rank in the 90s if I extended my rankings that far.

Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
Ranked # 27. During their primes, Grimes was better.

George Sisler –
His peak, after adjusting for context, just wasn’t good enough. I have him at # 47.

Posted by Adam Schafer
Are you a fellow Kansan Mike?

Yep, in Ottawa, KS.

If there are 2 of us voters, I guess that mean we outnumber HOM electees from Kansas 2 to 1.

win shares and early first basemen:

I found the 1Bmen with best RCAA to date. I looked at the OWP for their contemporaries at their positions, and also compared RCAA to RCAP. The 'average' value at a position is an obvious proxy for needed defensive skill, but others have ponted out before that a few star players can distort the average. This probably happened in the 80s with the ABC guys.

12 men: Three were centered around 1887: Anson/Brouthers/Connor. The avg OWP for 1B then was .580. The next set is Chance, Beckely, and part of Konetchy, centered around 1905, heavy deadball. Group C is Fournier and Sisler (and other half of Konetchy), centered around 1919, borderline liveball. Last is Foxx/Terry/Bottomley/Gehrig, around 1931, bg hitters era.

Comparison of 1B OWP by era:
A 1887 .580
B 1905 .532
C 1919 .542
D 1931 .576
If we asume no distortion by stars, the difference from group B to D is about 7 runs a year, or 2 win shares. I get about the same answer using the diff of RCAA and RCAP (##s below). So, I conclude the MOST generous adjsutment to deadball firstbasemen would be 2 WS/yr, prior to 1925 or 1930; and it could be smaller.

player ...RCAA RCAP
Gehrig. ...995 .810
Brouthers .962 .736
Connor. ...807 .607
Anson.. ...647 .410
Foxx.... ...643 .479
Terry.. ...422 .306
Chance. ...348 .308
Fournier ..341 .269
Beckley ...330 .245
Sisler. ...328 .205
Bottomley .298 .161
Konetchy ..230 .180

1949 ballot:

1. Carl Hubbell: 2 STATS Retro-Cys, ace for 3 pennant winners and some other good teams, 5 straight 20-win seasons, 300+ WS, 130 ERA+. Peak, prime, career. PHOM this year.

2. Ted Lyons: Many years, many innings, 260 wins, good %, .530, his teams were .460. His most similar is Grimes, better ERA+ puts Lyons just ahead. Also PHOM this year.

3. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. 418WS? 377WS? Either way, great player.

4. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. (PHOM 1938)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers.

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. All that in spite of a 107 ERA+! Now that’s pitching in a pinch! : -) (PHOM 1942)

7. Dick Lundy: Roughly comparable to Sewell, longer career, a little more pop, a little less average, great defense.

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. May have been the best of a weak lot at ss, however. (PHOM 1939)

9. Clark Griffith: Solid, long career. A top pitcher in the offense-heavy 90s. (PHOM 1945)

10. Pete Browning: Mr. Peak. 8 STATS AS. Monster hitter. Shorter career version of Heilmann. (PHOM 1927)

11. Roger Bresnahan: I dropped him behind Schang for a few years, but Roger’s career suggests brilliance, Wally’s doesn’t. (PHOM 1932)

12. Mule Suttles
13. John Beckwith
Two terrific hitters with questionable defense. I’m a little reluctant to pull the trigger and slot them really high. Beckwith's BA + ISO combination would probably have been the most highly valued at the time, but the projected career is a little short and there are those personality issues that might have hurt it some more. Suttles is all slugging, and I wonder if his defense might have cost him some career. Beckwith probably could have moved left on the spectrum, but Suttles is already there, with a bad defensive rep to boot. Is he Pops or Reggie, or more like Hondo?

14. Jake Beckley: Mr. Career. 3 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons. Good gray ink. (PHOM 1926)

15. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, and I don't see what Ferrell's got (except for a bat) that he doesn't. Goofy's ahead on black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for better teams. I think he had something to do with them being good.


Required explanations:
Rixey: Good for a long time. Behind Lyons, Grimes & Welch among the high-innings guys.
Ferrell: I’ve got about 15 pitchers under serious consideration and he’s in the bottom 5 of those. Low innings; I prefer Gomez, Mays & Waddell among the low-innings guys.
Averill: Hit the lower part of my ballot two years ago. Topnotch outfielder for most of his relatively short career.


Also in the mix, not necessarily in order: Mickey Welch (PHOM 1929),Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1940), Earl Averill, Pie Traynor, Rube Waddell, Tommy Leach, Dick Redding, Larry Doyle, Vic Willis, Carl Mays, Eppa Rixey, Ben Taylor, Jose Mendez, Bill Monroe, Wally Schang, Spots Poles, Edd Roush, Wilbur Cooper, Dave Bancroft, Waite Hoyt.

1949 Ballot

1. (new) Carl Hubbell. Great peak (55 WARP3/153 WS in his 5 best seasons) and career (130 ERA+ in 3600 innings.) Easy choice for the top of my ballot.

2. (4) Ted Lyons. A unique career pattern. All the markers suggest to me that he belongs in the HoM: 4000+ innings, 260 wins, 3.93 DERA, 118 ERA+ (plus 10 times in the AL top 10), 1062 PRAR, 100+ WARP3, 300+ Win Shares, and his photo is currently painted next to his retired number (16) on the LF wall of US Cellular Field.

3. (3) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B. Shorter career than Wilson or Suttles, but arguably a better hitter and fielder. I don’t know what to make of his reputation, but I am not inclined to mark him down for character issues.

4. (5) Hugh Duffy. His season-adjusted peak/prime Win Shares over 3, 5, 7, 10 years are better than similar candidates Averill, Roush and Burns and other ballot-eligible OFs. WARP3 is not as kind, but still shows a considerable peak over 8 years. He also has good black and gray ink, A+ CF/OF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Docked slightly for only playing 40% of his games in CF.

5. (6) George Van Haltren. As a career candidate, he isn’t helped by playing so many 132 game seasons, but he was a very good player for a very long time. Adjusting his career to 162 game seasons he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him some credit.

6. (7) Clark Griffith. It’s hard to point at one statistical measurement that argues for his election, but the totality of the available evidence presents a compelling case. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His peak level of performance between 1895-1901 was significant.

7. (8) Mule Suttles. The ML projections we have (.301/.364/.537, 137 OPS+) wouldn’t seem to put him in the elite hitter category of first basemen, but he played forever and was clearly a formidable slugger.

8. (9) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

9. (10) Larry Doyle. I’m guessing I have a higher regard for the 1910s National League than most voters. But whether that’s so or not, Doyle presents a pretty good case for the HoM. Higher career OPS+ (126) than all but a handful of 2B. Short-ish career, but he finished with more major league PAs than Averill or Terry. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which is enough for me.

10. (11) Earl Averill. WARP3 shows him with the best 10 year prime of any eligible OF; my adjWS calculation shows him with 3, 5, 7, 10 WS figures almost identical to those of Van Haltren, which is maybe more of an argument for GVH than against Averill. As has been stated by several others, WARP/WS disagree about his defense. With some PCL credit, I am comfortable placing him here on the ballot, but I’m not sure he’ll ever move much higher.

11. (new) Biz Mackey. No idea where he belongs. I had assumed two weeks ago that he was going to be near the top of my ballot. Excellent defensive reputation, long career, and positional bonus speak in his favor. Projected OPS+ of 98 hard to reconcile with his reputation as “one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball” (Riley).

12. (12) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak and a relatively short career, though I’m willing to make some allowance for era on this. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

13. (13) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career looks long enough HoM worthy to me and moves him ahead of Jennings. Moore’s peak seems comparable not only to Hughie, but to the 2 NeL players above him on this ballot.

14. (14) Rube Waddell. Still hanging on the ballot. Lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

15. (16) George Burns. Sometime in the 1930s (HoM time), I spent a lot of time looking at Roush and Burns and became convinced Burns was a better player—or at least I had fewer questions about him. Burns played practically every game for over a decade and averaged just over 25 win shares per season during that stretch.

Next 5 (all of whom I would like to cast a ballot for):
16. George Sisler
17. Edd Roush
18. Wes Ferrell
19. Cool Papa Bell
20. Tommy Leach

Required disclosures:
Ferrell, Sisler. Both are just off the ballot. I have nothing bad to say about either player, but there is a lot of competition for the top 15 spots.

1949 HoM Ballot:
1. Carl Hubbell—Best peak among eligible pitching candidates (54.4 warp1 in 5 con. years versus 48.5 for Ferrell, 47.3 for Waddell) launches his career numbers into the Rixey, Lyons, Grimes category.
2. Ted Lyons—Highest career WARP among pitching candidates, his peak is also highest among pitchers with long career, adequate peak (40.9 warp1 in 5 con. years, 38.4 for Rixey & Grimes; and 27.93 WS per sea. vs. 26.49 & 25.19 for Rixey & Grimes respectively).
3. John Beckwith—His spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections.
4. Mule Suttles—Based on his reputation alone, I originally had Suttles ahead of Simmons. Based on Chris Cobb’s projections alone, he would be behind Beckwith and possibly Griffith, so I’ve compromised between the two.
5. Clark Griffith—A good balance between peak and career: His peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
6. Charley Jones—A legitimate star of the '70s, I finally decided to give him credit for his blacklisted years, jumping him from just off the ballot to here.
7. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. I have rearranged pitchers due to a different balance of career vs. peak value than position players.
8. Hughie Jennings—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
9. Hugh Duffy—Excellent peak puts Duffy in the top 3 among ML outfielders between Baby Jones and Cactus Gavy—and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
10. Dobie Moore—Based off projections, estimates, and anecdotes, the Negro Leaguers are the wild cards of my HoM ballot. Called the "best unrecognized player" of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings.
11. Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
12. Wes Ferrell—Comparable to Rube Waddell among peak pitchers, IMO. Waddell has the advantage in IP and ERA+; however, considering the difference in eras the gap in IP shrinks (if not balances in Ferrell’s favor), and his competent handling of the bat more than makes of the difference in ERA+, especially considering Waddell’s UER issues.
13. Edd Roush—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
14. Earl of Snohomish—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. I give Averill credit for his '28 PCL performance.
15. Carl Mays—Raised in estimation when I took another look at pitchers, the hardest position to come to grips with. Similar to Ferrell and Waddell, except his bigger seasons are spread among his lesser and not clumped together.

Disclosures:
George Sisler—I’ve changed my mind: while his peak is nice it’s not as good as I originally thought, and his marginal second-half isn’t enough combined with his peak to get him on my ballot. He’s sitting just off the ballot with Joe Sewell.

1949 Ballot

1. Hubbell, Carl -- I knew mostly about the all-star game strikeouts, but this guy was a stud. Good peak and good career. What more to ask?

2. Lundy, Dick – Most have Lundy slotted lower than Beckwith. I’ve been a bigger proponent of Beckwith’s than most, but I’ve got Lundy around 380 WS and Beckwith around 350, primarily due to defense (and position). They are both HoMers.

3. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 350 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

4. Lyons, Ted -- Came in higher than I expected. He definitely goes in the “overlooked” category from a historical perspective. Not many guys with 300+ WS and 100+ WARP are overlooked.

5. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

6. Suttles, Mule -- I fear that I have him too high, rather than too low. Players who can hit the ball a mile tend to develop long-standing reputations that are not necessarily reflective of overall abilities. That may not be the case here, but I remain a bit skeptical. At one time I scoured 64 lists of all-time great Negro League players. He made 6 of the lists. By contrast, his contemporary, Stearnes, made 13. I rate him lower than an average defensive player too. Riley basically says he caught everything he could reach, but implies strongly that he could not reach very much. In any event, he was probably a better hitter than Sisler, so I’ll put him a little ahead.

7. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

8. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

9. Waddell, Rube – I’ve was holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

10. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor for an outfielder.

11. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

12. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

13. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, but was a peak performer and could swing the bat.

14. Mackey, Biz – A little confused at this point. The discussion thread does not place him in as good a position as I expected. On the other hand, we are talking about a player that made nearly as many all-time Negro League teams as Oscar Charleston. I expected him to be in the top 5 on my ballot. I’ve dropped him because of the comments, but retained him on the ballot because of contemporary accounts of his abilities.

15. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.


Required Disclosures:

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #22 in my system, behind Bobby Veach (but really just behind Max Carey) and ahead of Larry Doyle, Tommy Leach and Joe Sewell (but really just ahead of Goose Goslin). I need more brilliance than he provided.

Averill, Earl – Another player whose numbers are inflated by the high run environment in which he played, and when corrected, look just very good. He’s #43 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan and ahead of Kiki Cuyler.

1.Hubbell Of ML pitchers whose careers began after 1910, I’ve got him 3rd to date behind Alexander and Grove.
2.Suttles By NHBA rankings, would be the 17th best player in the HoM if he were to make it this year.
3.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
4.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
5.Mackey I have been entertained by the Gadfly v. karlmagnus debate with Chris Cobb’s efforts in the middle and find myself agreeing with Gadfly’s position that Chris’s numbers are too low . Mackey was the only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts. If we are going to reject that outcome, then let’s not bother acknowledging the survey’s existence any more.
6.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
7.Leach PHoM 1926.
8.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
9.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
10.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot.
11.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939.
12.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. It looks like I am the only friend he has left. PHoM 1942.
13. Mays Pennants added likes him. I still like these guys better than Vance or Faber.
14.Ferrell Considering moving above Mays, but not Cooper.
15.Roush PHoM 1942.
16.Lyons
17.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
18.Lundy Only Biz Mackey fared better in the Cool Papa’s survey.
19.Burns,GJ
20.Sisler

Phew. Tax Season's over and I have a life again. I'm sure they'll both make it eventually, but I can honestly say I don't know who the 2nd inductee will be this year. Hubbell and Suttles make my PHoM this year.

1. Carl Hubbell (new) Comes out well ahead of all the other pitchers in my system. Not an incredibly long career, but a dominant peak and enough career value to put him comfortably ahead of everyone else. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Mule Suttles (3) HR's aren't the be-all and end-all, but they make him look like the 2nd best power hitter in Negro League history, which sounds like a HoMer to me. Even if the 1926 MLE is inaccurate, he's got a consistent career with some very good years.

3. Tommy Leach (4) I think I've said before, I have a weakness for what I see as "complete players", without a strong weakness in their argument, and Leach is that way to me. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. Has more WS than Beckwith's translated estimates in a career of very similar length. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. John Beckwith (5) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around, not an extremely long career compared to the other Negro League candidates.

5. Bill Monroe (7) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Seems to have had a longer career than any of the other 2B candidates. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Wes Ferrell (6) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above.

7. Ted Lyons (8) Actually was ahead of Ferrell in my pitcher system, but I think that's affected by his odd career shape, so I'm keeping Wes ahead. KJOK's SN W-L records (on the Yahoo site) think he's the shiz-nit.

8. Joe Sewell (9) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. Dick Lundy (15) The MLE’s look very similar to Sewell, with a bit less peak, but more offensive value, and James claims he was an excellent defensive player. There were a lot of good SS in the Negro Leagues.

10. Earl Averill (12) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. I do see the argument for being wary of overrepresnting the 30s - I wouldn't put him in my PHoM at this point.

11. Dick Redding (11) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers. I do think he's better than Mendez, but it's not an unshakable conviction.

12. Cupid Childs (10) Drops a bit because I'm starting to think I have too many middle infielders up high on my ballot. He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri. Made my HoM in 1932.

13. George Van Haltren (13) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(13A Max Carey)

14. Cool Papa Bell (17) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and if so, that feels like a HoMer. And his WS Equivalents may not look special, but they add up to a lot
(14A Bill Terry)

15. Biz Mackey (new) I am comfortable that he's ahead of the other catchers on the ballot, but those numbers still aren't that striking. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.

16. Jimmy Ryan (14) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(16A Sam Thompson)
17. Eppa Rixey (16) I might be underestimating him, and he did throw a ton of innings, but I still see him behind Lyons and Ferrell. I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era.
18. Ben Taylor (20) Maybe I'm underrating 1Bmen, but I'm not yet convinced. A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
19. Jake Beckley. (24) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit. It does seem wrong to have him too far behind Cool Papa Bell, though.
20. Jose Mendez (18) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.
(20A Rube Foster)
21. Tony Lazzeri (22) Looks pretty close to Childs to me. Didn't think he'd be this high.
22. Spotswood Poles (19) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good.
23. Rube Waddell (23) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
24. Charley Jones (32) A lot of uncertainty about his true value, but for now he seems like the best available corner OF to me. (leaving Suttles out of it.)
25. Hughie Jennings (21) I guess I'm becoming less of a peak voter, but longevity isn't something you can just ignore.
26. Burleigh Grimes (29) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, hard to differentiate from Rixey or Faber.
27. Bobby Veach (25) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
28. Mike Griffin (28) I liked Joe's argument, he's very closer to GVH and Ryan in WARP in significantly fewer games, so he was packing a bigger punch.
29. Dave Bancroft (26) Looking at how their Win Shares compared to the rest of their leagues, Sewell does have an edge, but it's not a huge one. Wins the award for "Best Frankie Frisch Selection".
30. Dizzy Dean (27) Similar to Ferrell, but significantly behind. I'm not upset he's in the Hall of Fame, but he doesn't belong here.

33. George Sisler (30) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years. Haven't looked at new WARP yet (still true, it was tax season).
34. Clark Griffith (36) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.

I'm light on the comments this week . . . see previous ballots for more detail.

1. Carl Hubbell (n/e) - An inner circle (top 125 ever) HoMer in my opinion. A dominant pitcher in his time, though his career was superlong. He doesn't need longevity points with his peak. First or second in NL in ERA+ 5 times from 1931-36, and from 1932-36 he was top 3 in IP each year as well. His career looks something like Mike Mussina's, though Hubbell had one more huge year, and to this point a longer career. A little better than Mussina, with a longer career is an easy HoMer.

2. Eppa Rixey (2) - With better teammates and no assination of Franz Ferdinand, Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Nierko HoMer.

3. Gavy Cravath (9) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics. How did he only get 5 votes last time? Has he just fallen off the radar?

4. Charley Jones (4) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

5. Clark Griffith (5) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith?

6. Mule Suttles (8) - Nudging him up some after re-reviewing Chris Cobb's MLEs.

7. Jake Beckley (10) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

8. Tommy Leach (19) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

9. Ted Lyons (15) - I had him way too low last week. As of 1934 (age 33) he is clearly NOT a HoMer. But he's one of the best 'old' pitchers ever, his run from 1935-42 puts him over the top.

10. Hughie Jennings (4) - I'm feeling a little more career value oriented of late, Jennings obviously drops on those days.

11. John Beckwith (26) - I'm trusting Chris's MLEs here - a little more than I had. I still think it's much more realistic to consider him a 3B that played some SS, than as a SS.

12. Bill Monroe (6) - He drops because I was underrating those that moved ahead of him, not because I was overrating him.

13. Biz Mackey (n/e) - Conservative ranking. After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

14. Cool Papa Bell (16) - Awful lot of career value there.

15. Wes Ferrell (11) - Great pitcher and good hitter. For a hitter, not a pitcher.

Dropping out:

16. Earl Averill (12) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher.

27. Lefty Gomez (13) - I probably had him too high.

30-39? Tony Lazzeri (14) - Doesn't stand out enough from the 2B pack.

Close:

17. Wally Schang (21)
18. George Sisler (32) - in penalizing him for his 2nd act, I was underrating his first act, though I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. I realize that probably sounds confusing as hell.
19. Joe Sewell (off) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Like say . . . Joe McGinnity.
20. Mike Griffin (17)
21. George Van Haltren (18 ) - I don't know what to do with this guy. He could justifiably be anywhere from 3 to 30.
22. Dobie Moore (20) - ditto.
23. Jimmy Ryan (22) - ditto.
24. Edd Roush (23) - ditto. Get the picture?
25. Hugh Duffy (24) - not quite as good as the glut above him.
26. Vic Willis (25) - I wanted to stop at 25, but he needs to be mentioned. I could easily see him much higher on the ballot.

Regarding Hubbell - should say, "though his career was NOT superlong"

1949 Ballot (at least the top 21 will make my PHOM, just too many good candidates):

1. Mickey Welch: More than 300 wins. 3rd most innings of pre-93 pitchers. Very good 113 ERA+ for his career. Compared to his contemporaries (Keefe, Caruthers, Clarkson, McCormick, Galvin, Radbourn) only Galvin had worse defensive support. Coincidentally of course, Galvin is the only who has a lower ERA+. Kicked HoMer ass when he pitched against them w/ a record of 62-38. PHOM 1901.

2. Carl Hubbell: Among eligible post deadball pitchers, he has the third most career win shares (Lyons, Rixey), the second highest 3 cons years peak (Dean), the highest 3-yr non-cons yrs peak, and the highest 7 years prime. Including post-1893 pitchers, Willis beats him barely for 7 year prime. 7 times STATS all-star, 6 times win shares NL all-star, 2 times win shares Cy Young for NL. Slightly above-average defensive support per Chris J., but totally average offensive support. Only Dean has more Black Ink and and no one has more Grey Ink. At least 8 top 10s in ERA, ERA+, wins, BB/9, K/9, IP, and Men on Base. Makes my PHOM this year.
3. Charley Jones: Nothing new that I haven’t said before. Adjusting for season length and giving credit for 2 years blackballed, one of the top 3 peaks and primes available. Adjusting for season length, 9 years w/ 20 win shares, 6 w/ 25, 4 with 30. 5 STATS all-stars, 4 by win shares. And that is without the 2 years in the middle of his career when blackballed. PHOM 1906.

4. Pete Browning: Great peak, great prime. Great hitter. PHOM 1921.

5. Hugh Duffy: Amazing fielder. Great hitter. 5 years among top 5 players in league. Best position player in the game in 1893 and 1894. Win shares totals and defensive ranking of A+ are not a product of center field bias as he only spent 4 years as a center fielder. PHOM 1919.

6. Earl Averill: Makes PHOM this year with Hubbell. Tempted to move him down because he gets quite a bonus in my system for the all-star years and the 1930s American League did not have great outfielders, but I can’t think of anyone I’d want here instead. I give partial credit for his last year in the minors. PHOM 1949.

7. Wes Ferrell: Slight move up because Suttles moves down and reconsidered the era in which he pitched. Will have to wait for PHOM induction with Waner, Cronin, and Dihigo coming on board.

8. Ted Lyons: 3 yrs of WWII credit done as decline phase. I know he completed every start at the age of 42, but he had to slow down at some point. Will make my PHOM just a step behind Ferrell.

9. Vic Willis: Not discounting his early numbers as much. Career started before deadball era began. Willis started in 1898, Deadball in 1903 or 04. 2 times best pitcher in the league. I have issues with ERA+, but it was 118 in 4000 innings. PHOM 1942.

10. Jose Mendez: Would love to see more about him. Best Cuban pitcher ever. Very good in NeL as well. May be overrating on basis of peak. I have reduced it some from what is on his tread.

Positions 11-24 are all within an eyelash of each other in my system. There is literally one percent of difference between them.
11. Edd Roush: 9 years over 20 win shares, 4 over 25, 3 over 30. Defense: A- with 5 gold gloves by win shares. Carey: 11 / 5 / 0, A+ defense with 10 gold gloves. Roush had a ton more power while Carey took walks. Roush had a higher peak even with the injuries. PHOM 1940.
Vance

12. Mule Suttles: Drops from 7th because I input the wrong career totals. Still see eventual PHOM and HOM. Fantastic power and a longer career than Beckwith

13. Biz Mackey: Thanks to everyone for an entertaining and informative thread. If 290-300 career win shares and 8 (Holway) All-Star apps is not enough from a catcher, you must have really high standards.

14. George Burns: The best leadoff hitter available. Many all-star appearances. Lots of black and grey ink. PHOM 1938.

15. Dobie Moore: Recently, in another source (ESPN’s new encyclopedia??), I read that he had to quit because he was shot in the leg. I guess the “injuring your leg while jumping out of a whorehouse window because your girlfriend who ran the whorehouse caught you with another “lady”” was a little much.

Out of luck this year.
16. George Van Haltren: Lack of respect for an excellent leadoff hitter. Did not have a great peak, but a fantastic, long prime. Too many good candidates. Gets pushed lower than my raw numbers because he played an easier position than Mackey and Moore.

17. John Beckwith: I do think the comments that he only beat up an umpire once and only a teammate once for making faces are funny. Well, he only beat up a couple of people. If I believed everything bad about Beckwith he would be about 40th. Anyway, by my numbers, he ranks 17th without an adjustment for attitude.
<Spots Poles and Dick Lundy: I am not sure where to rank them. Their converted numbers are fuzzy when compared to the more current players. I believe they are top 20/25 players from what I have read, but I am not sure where to slot them. Lundy about 25th as he had a longer career but much lower peak than Jennings. Poles could be as high as 6 based on some opinions, but somewhere at the bottom of the ballot seems more appropriate. As I have too many questions about him, he is off the ballot.>

18. Burleigh Grimes: Better peak than Rixey. Worse defensive support.

Terry

19. Gavy Cravath: This is based on credit for 1910 and 1911 at his per/yr ws totals. May give credit for one or two pre-1908 seasons as well. I don’t know what to do with 1909 because he stank in the majors. Maybe the two teams thought he was a flash in the pan. Still trying to work out minor league credit.

Faber

20. Wilbur Cooper.
21. Tommy Leach:
22. Hughie Jennings:
23. Dizzy Dean:
24. Cool Papa Bell: I think is a bit of a joke that Carey got in the HoM rather easily in 4 years while Bell is going to have to wait a long time. Calling all Carey supporters...
25. George Sisler: Good peak. One of several first basemen with 4 to 6 years as the best in their league. Chance, Fournier, Konetchy as well.

29. Clark Griffith: He does not have the long career than many of his contemporaries had. He lacks the peaks that many of his contemporaries had. Being the best available simply because you survived is not enough.

30. Eppa Rixey: With some war credit. Lacks the big years that Vance or Grimes or Faber or Ferrell or Hubbell or etc., Above average doesn’t get you very far even if the career is long.
About 60th: Jake Beckley: Very good power hitter. Good first baseman. Long career. NO peak. Even adjusting for season length, he has 10 years with 20 win shares, Zero with 25 or more.
About 60th: Bobby Wallace.

Newbies:
Lon Warneke: About 52nd among all eligibles. 3 years over 25 win shares but not much else.
Chuck Klein: About 70th among all pitchers and position players eligible. Not a good enough peak to make up for an uneven career. Not a long enough career to make up for a not high enough peak or prime. Baker Bowl influence.
Tommy Bridges: About 80th with some WWII credit. Not enough big years. Hall of Very Good.
Dick Bartell: About 100-110th.

The end of the ballot just keeps on getting more difficult. More good candidates every year. I was just messing around with the eligibles list and realized that the next 16 elections are just packed. I did this quickly and my Negro League expertise is minimal, but I think I have 4 spaces open out of 32 for my personal HoM.

Locks: Waner, Cronin, Dihigo, Foxx, Gibson, Ott, Dickey, Greenberg (WWII credit), Vaughan, Medwick, Hilton Smith (am I overrating him?), Appling, Leonard, DiMaggio, Wells, Keller (w/ WWII credit, but no back injury credit), Paige, Mize (WWII credit), Day, Robinson, Feller, Campanella, Irvin, Reese, Doby.

Probables: Newhouser (with WWII discount), Walters (with WWII discount), Slaughter (WWII credit).

I seem to remember from the WWII thread that there should not be too much reduction for WWII achievements. Something around 8 to 10 percent for 1944-1945?

Any overrating/underrating among various players, or any other comments. I think we are going to be debating our current batch of players for a long time. It looks like the next spot for a backlogger is either 1954 or 1955, then 1957 or 1958, then 1961, then 1964.

I have 47 ballots tallied at this point.

Still missing ballots from: mbd1mbd1, Esteban Rivera, Ken Fischer, Thane of Bagarath, Michael Bass, Buddha, jimd, Max Parkinson, RMc, Eric Enders, Flaxseed, and Stephen.

Any overrating/underrating among various players...

I do't know if I'd call Keller a lock (4604 PA is pretty hard to swallow, even with that stratospheric peak). And I'd throw Stan Hack and maybe Bob Elliott into the probables list; right now, I'm more inclined to vote for either of them than Enos Slaughter.

But you're right - it is a packed ballot.

1949 Ballot:
My ballot seems a little pitcher heavy this year.

1) Carl Hubbell
I have him as the seventh best pitcher thus far—not all that far behind another Giant, Christy Mathewson.

2) Ted Lyons
Other than Hubbell, he’s the top eligible pitcher in my ranks even without war credit. I’m giving him a little less war credit than what was mentioned in the discussion thread. I have him as the #10 pitcher of all time through this election. 105 WARP3 and 300+ Win Shares is mighty impressive given that he is subject to less of an innings and era adjustment than most of the other top pitchers. Lyons’ peak is not remarkable, but his career value—a whopping 1062 PRAR—is up there with the second tier of all-time greats.

3) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Third highest Career WARP3 (81.2) among eligible pitchers, 3rd highest 5-year PRAR (455).

4) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. HoM-worthy peak, if you ask me.

5) Ben Taylor
Ben has a highly regarded historical reputation—Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman.

6) Mule Suttles
Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different, and Mule hit those towering home runs that get longer and longer as the recollections of weathered witnesses weakens. Still, he was an incredible slugger.

7) Dick Redding
Best NeL pitcher on the board. 2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

8) John Beckwith
The separation between Becks and Boojum is very narrow. There are so many question marks in the records for the two of them that I can’t imagine one making the HoM and the other being left out. He could be as high as number 3 on this ballot.

9) Cool Papa Bell
I’m finding it much harder to dismiss Bell’s reputation than it was to dismiss Judy Johnson’s. I’m still a little stunned that his numbers appear to be unimpressive. The longevity factor earns him a ballot spot.

10) Tommy Bridges
75.8 WARP3, 225 WS edge out Warneke, plus I give him the edge in war credit. Not a spectacular peak, but a nice career.

11) Lon Warneke
Better rate stats and peak than Rixey, less career value. This one’s practically a tie.

12) Eppa Rixey
Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+. 3rd highest career PRAR of eligibles (871).

13) Joe Sewell
Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. He’s been treading water in this area of the ballot for a while. I haven’t seen anything that convinces me he should move one way or the other.

14) Rube Waddell
142 ERA+ 3.81 DERA. 209 PRAA/ 429PRAR/ 145WS in 5 best seasons. Behind only Dean & Ferrell in PRAR in his top 5 seasons.

15) Jose Mendez
Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.

---------------------------------
If only I had two ballots...

16) George Sisler—One year after making his first appearance on my ballot, Sisler slips back off.
17) Earl Averill—I haven’t been giving him PCL credit which prevents him from edging past Sisler. I may reconsider for next election.
18) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS. Revelations about Bell make me think Poles has been underrated by history.
19) Dick Lundy—Probably underrated as well.
20) Hughie Jennings—I don’t feel like I’m losing my preference for high-peak players, but Hughie’s sloooow slide off the ballot may be evidence to the contrary.
21) Dobie Moore
22) Bill Monroe
23) Urban Shocker
24) Fielder Jones
25) Harry Hooper
26) Gavy Cravath
27) Larry French—Solid career. Almost 600 more Translated IP than Gomez and WARP indicates a he was pitching in a tougher league.
28) Clark Griffith—He’s got ok peak value and ok career value, but not outstanding enough in either to rank higher.
29) Ed Cicotte
30) John Donaldson—2nd best Negro League lefty. Seems to have been totally overlooked by the electorate—not that I’m much better ranking him so low.

Other Top 10 not on my ballot
91) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 31.7 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity.

New Players in Top 100
35) Chuck Klein
44) Dick Bartell
57) Biz Mackey—Comparable to Schang and I have Wally ranked much lower.

Re: Keller.

This a little early, but...
I have put together a spreadsheet of eligibles out through the 1965 candidates. I was surprised to find that Keller did as well as he did in my analysis. He was very similar numbers, by win shares, as Jennings.
Jennings, then Keller:
career win shares unadjusted: 214, 218.
Peak win shares unadjusted: 97, 102.
Prime (7 yrs) win shares: 176, 190.
Win Shares per season (648 PA): 25, 30.9.

Adjusted for season length for Jennings and adding in 1.5 seasons of WWII credit for Keller at his pre-back injury levels.
Career: 239, 263
Peak: 110, 102
Prime: 198, 210
Season: 25, 30.9

Seasons of 20 / 25 / 30+ win shares:
Jennings: 5, 4, 4 (season length adjustment here)
Keller: 6, 4, 4 (no war credit here)

Win Shares All-Stars: 4 times each.
STATS All-Stars: 4 times Keller, 3 Jennings.

Keller has a better OBP and SLG. Jennings played a great defensive shortstop, Keller was average in leftfield (though that was Yankee Stadium leftfield.)
Jennings does have a period where he is the best player in the league. Keller doesn't, but he is behind DiMaggio and Williams.

He has a much better case than I imagined he would. I am not saying he is a lock for the HoM, but he is a lock for my PHOM. As is Jennings (at some point after this crush of candidates.)

Even if you add in some war credit, he doesn't look to me as good as Hack Wilson, who I think the team are overlooking somewaht.

Ballot for 1949

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my syste (but no time for progress due to work demands). Maybe next election.

1) C. HUBBELL -- Best combination of career and peak available.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

5) T. LYONS -- Rixey-like career but with a better peak in the better league.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

7) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

8) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition.
Was an all-star OF longer than Klein, Berger, Wilson, Averill, etc.

9) J. BECKWITH -- Now there's doubts.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

11) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

12) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

13) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

14) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

15) B. MACKEY -- Expected to rate him higher, but...

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Rabbit Maranville, Hugh Duffy, Jimmy Ryan, Harry Hooper,
20-23) Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Ned Williamson, Ray Schalk,
24-27) Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
28-31) Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Gavy Cravath, Earl Averill,
32-35) Roger Bresnahan, Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
36-40) Del Pratt, Sam Rice, Jack Quinn, Dizzy Dean, Tommy Bond

Ah, with only an hour to go in the voting, jimd managed to vote for THREE candidates with no previous votes this year: Dunlap, Veach, and F. Jones. At this point I have one line of slack. If two new candidates get voted for, I'll have to add another line to the spreadsheet.

With 49 ballots in, consensus scores promise to average somewhere between +1 and +2. Also (keeping it fairly obtuse for now), this will have been one of our closest elections in a while, at least on the question of who's in and who's out.

If two new candidates get voted for, I'll have to add another line to the spreadsheet.

Damn, I think I'm only adding one. ;)

Sorry for the lateness of the ballot.

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

New WARP not included for now, but I haven't been strict WARP for a while now. I'll give it a fresh look when we get back into the backlog, esp. with respect to Sisler.

New PHOMers are Hubbell and Lyons.

Klein is in the top 25-30 mix. Warneke also can probably be found in that area (maybe more like top 50 for him). Bridges is farther back, but still a good player. Mackey is just off ballot. Honestly, I'm not terribly shocked that he was overrated by history, seems as though the great Negro League gloves had their reputation awfully inflated.

1. Carl Hubbell (1949) (new) - Pretty obvious #1. Peak is at least as good as Ferrell's and obviously much more in the way of average seasons to fill out a career than Wes.

2. Ted Lyons (1949) (5) - I didn't realize how good this guy was. Great career, not much peak, but plenty of prime; the sort of player like Al Simmons that I have tended to underrated, and am trying to correct. Like someone earlier said, what Rixey's supporters think Rixey is.

3. Wes Ferrell (1945) (3) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

4. Hughie Jennings (1910) (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. José Méndez (1932) (6) - While Waddell is moving down, Méndez is staying steady. Why? Because I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

6. Joe Sewell (1939) (7) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit.

7. John Beckwith (1940) (8) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense. Big gap below him.

8. Dizzy Dean (9) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

9. Rube Waddell (1926) (10) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

10. Mule Suttles (11) - Think he's a pretty clear 3rd in the Negro League glut atop our standings. It's not that I don't like him, more than I think he should wait a while.

11. Clark Griffith (1927) (12) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league that those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

12. Dick Redding (13) - Of similar value to Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. I'm really stuck the mid-ballot pitchers. Really have no confidence in my order, they're all very close. I notice as I'm writing this that my ballot is very pitcher-heavy at the moment.

13. Dobie Moore (14) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

14. Wally Schang (15) - I took another look at him, and his OPS+ combined with a long catcher career makes him the top backstop candidate in the backlog. Just churned out those solid hitting seasons while still donning the catcher's mit. Maybe the most underrated player by the electorate, and I include myself in that list.

15. Dick Bartell (new) - I understand why people don't like him. 96 OPS+, and it's not like he had a big hitting peak. But I think we are probably underrating defense a little as a group, Dick was an slightly sub-average hitter with an awesome glove at a critical position. Ozzie Smith lite. I'd also note that he seems to be a candidate for war credit, as he was still going decently when the war came along.


16-20: Mackey, Averill, Cross, Dunlap, Monroe
21-25: Bell, F. Jones, Veach, Williamson, Klein
26-30: Bond, Browning, Sisler, Shocker, Buffinton
31-35: Childs, Taylor, Maranville, Grimes, Luque
36-40: Cuyler, Lundy, Warneke, Schalk, Ryan




Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Averill - Is 17 on my ballot, like him, it's just crowded up there.

Sisler - #28 right now...may move up, but I'm not incorporating new WARP3 until we get a real backlog year going (and also to stall to see if they plan on making up their minds)

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. I've softened a bit on the old goat. He's a contender for my top 50!

The Mealticket is the ticket this year:

1. Carl Hubbell - Nothing screwy with this choice. Just the best combination of career, prime and peak on this ballot.

2. Ted Lyons - I think he is being underrated by the electorate. Better peak than almost all the other major league pitchers except Ferrell and Waddell with the career to go along with it.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

9. Mule Suttles - Still murky on how good he really was. On what I can safely sort out, this spot seems reasonable

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

12. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

13. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop

15. Gavvy Cravath - Makes it back on my ballot from quite a bit down. The gaps are slowly being filled and what I can surmise is that this was a special hitter for his time. Most likely will move up next year.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but can't reach the ballot with the newcomers this year. On the edge of the ballot

The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

"Yep, in Ottawa, KS.

If there are 2 of us voters, I guess that mean we outnumber HOM electees from Kansas 2 to 1. "

Holton here, pass through Ottawa often though doing transports to Osowatomie for the Sheriff's Dept. Nice to see a fellow Kansan