My money is on Gibson and Ott (in that order).

Sorry Bill, but you'll make it the following year.

prelim
there were 15 on a ballot and two were voted in
roll over
roll over
then in came Gibson he was super great
in came Ott he was great
in came Dickey he was very very good
roll over
roll over
they all rolled over and one fell out
blah blah blah

LOL

So it looks like the work for 1952 is this:

Ott vs. Gibson for the #1 spot.

Dickey vs. other top returning candidates for the #3 spot (I think this one goes pretty clearly to Dickey).

Figuring out what to do with Chet Brewer (and other NeL pitchers).

Sammy T. Hughes and Sam Bankhead were good players, but they're not serious candidates for the HoM. Sammy T. Hughes hit .300/.414 in the NeL in a 14-year MLE career. If those were major-league numbers, he'd be a borderline candidate. Sam Bankhead hit .285/.387 in a 15-year MLE career.

Will we start considering Japanese players?

I went overboard this time:
1951 Recap part 1 of 5

Wow, GREAT comeback by the Giants for the right to be beaten by the Yankees.
Top position players in AL:

Ted Williams   of  34
Yogi Berra     c    31
Larry Doby     of  29
Eddie Yost     3b  27
Eddie Joost    ss  25
Al Rosen       3b  25
Bobby Avila    2b  24
Minnie Minoso  of  24
Phil Rizzuto   ss  23
Gil McDougald  3b  23
Nellie Fox     2b  22
George Kell    3b  22
Vic Wertz      of  22
Johnny Pesky   ss  21
Dom DiMaggio   of  21

Lots of infielders this year, but no first basemen. Only 4 oufielders in the top 15. Ted Williams has contributed the most wins in the league in every full season since 1941. 1941, 42, 46, 47, 48, 49, and 51.

Top position players in NL:

 
Stan Musial      of  39
Jackie Robinson  2b 38
Ralph Kiner      of  35
Roy Campanella   c  33
Monte Irvin      of  29
Richie Ashburn   of  28
Alvin Dark       ss 27
Gil Hodges       1b  26
Bobby Thomson    of  26
Eddie Stanky     2b  24
Sam Jethroe      of  23
PeeWee Reese     ss  22
Puddin’ Head Jones  3b  22
Sid Gordon       of  22
Duke Snider      of  22  
Carl Furillo     of  21  

The Brooklyn Dodgers had some great frontline talent. 6 position players among the top 16 players in the league. They also had the 5th/6th best pitchers in Don Newcombe and Preacher Roe. Musial has had the most win shares in every season since 1943 except for a year in WWII and 1947. 1943, 44, 46, 48, 49, 50, 51.

Top pitchers in AL:

Early Wynn      24
Mike Garcia     22
Ned Garver      22
Mel Parnell     22
Bob Lemon       19
Eddie Lopat     19
Billy Pierce    19
Allie Reynolds  19 
Bob Feller      18
Ellis Kinder    18 
Saul Rogovin    18 

Top pitchers in NL:

Robin Roberts   28
Sal Maglie      28
Warren Spahn    26
Larry Jansen    24
Don Newcombe    21
Preacher Roe    21
Ewell Blackwell 19
Raffensberger   18
Bubba Church    18
Murray Dickson  18  

League All-Star Teams by win shares: AL first
C: Berra / Campanella
1B: Fain and Eddie Robinson / Hodges
2B: Avila / Jackie Robinson
3B: Yost / Jones
SS: Joost / Dark
OF: Williams - LF/ Musial
Doby – CF / Kiner
Minoso – RF / Irvin
(Minoso played his outfield half in right and half left. If you want a pure RF, Wertz is it.)
All three NL outfielders were LF/1B combos and were all better than Hodges. If you want a pure CF, Richie Ashburn would be it.)
P: Wynn / Roberts
Garcia / Maglie
Garver / Spahn
Parnell / Jansen

STATS All-Star Team:
C: Berra / Campanella
1B: Fain / Hodges
2B: Fox / Robinson
3B: Yost / Jones
SS: Joost / Dark
OF: Williams / Musial
Minoso / Kiner
Zernial (19 win shares, but led league in RBI and HR) / Irvin
P: Garcia / Jansen
Garver / Maglie
Lopat / Roe
Wynn / Spahn
RP: Kinder / Wilks

All-Star Game Starting Line-ups (listed in batting order):
AL then NL:
1. Dom DiMaggio / Richie Ashburn
2. Nellie Fox / Al Dark
3. George Kell / Stan Musial
4. Ted Williams / Jackie Robinson
5. Yogi Berra / Gil Hodges
6. Vic Wertz / Bob Elliott
7. Ferris Fain / Del Ennis
8. Chico Carrasquel / Roy Campanella
9. Ned Garver / Robin Roberts

MVP:
Writers:
AL: Berra
NL: Campanella
Win Shares:
Williams and Musial

Cy Young: Didn’t exist
By highest finish in MVP voting:
AL: Ned Garver (2nd to Berra, Reynolds was 3rd)
NL: Sal Maglie (5th)

Rookie of the Year:
Writers:
AL: McDougald (13 to 11 over Minoso. Win Shares says Minoso 24 -23. It’s a toss up.)
NL: Mays

Hall of Fame Voting announced in January 1951:
Mel Ott and Jimmie Foxx were elected. They needed 170 votes to be elected. Ott received 197 and Foxx 179. Top 10, HoMers, and other notables receiving votes:
Paul Waner: 162
Heilmann: 153
Terry: 148
Dean: 145
Dickey: 118
Simmons: 116
Maranville: 110
Lyons: 71
Vance: 70
Greenberg: 67 (though not eligible by modern standards)
Hartnett: 57
Cronin: 44
Schalk: 37
Youngs: 34
Carey: 27
Gowdy: 26
Gomez: 23
Roush: 21
Hack Wilson: 21
Wheat: 19
Martin: 19
Klein: 15
Hoyt: 13
O’Doul: 13
Adams: 12
Home Run Baker: 8
Cuyler: 8
Faber: 8
Bill McKechnie and Casey Stengal: 8 each
Grimes, Rixey, Joe Wood: 5 each
Al Schacht: 4 votes (WTF?) (He actually received votes in 1939, 1948, and 1956 as well.)
Sherry Magee: 2
Cooper: 1
Milan: 1
Satchel Paige: 1 (in 1951?! Was there a really liberal newspaper man and where was he from?)

Gold Glove team (win shares retro award) ALL CAPS has best total.
C: BERRA, Campanella
1B: Vernon, KLUSZEWSKI
2B: Avila, ROBINSON
3B: ROSEN, Jones
SS: CARRASQUEL, Hamner
OF: Noren, Busby, D DiMaggio, ASHBURN, Merriman, Mays

Achievements and Milestones:
No-Hitters:
Cliff Chambers: May 6
Bob Feller: July 1
Allie Reynolds: July 12 and again on Sept 28

Three-Home Run games:
Ralph Kiner: July 18
Del Wilber: August 27
Don Mueller: September 1

Hit For the Cycle:
Gus Bell: June 4
Bobby Avila: June 20
Clyde Vollmer: July 26

Hitting Streaks:
Dom DiMaggio has longest: 27 games

Ted Williams hits his 300 career homer.

Part 2

Team notes and miscellany:
AL:
Much more evenly spread than last year: (Pythag record in ())

NYork 98 – 56 (94 – 60)
Clev  93 – 61 (88 – 66)
Bost  87 – 67 (84 – 70)
GoSox 81 – 73 (84 – 70)
Detr  73 – 81 (71 – 83)
Phil  70 - 84 (76 – 78)
Wash  62 – 92 (68 – 86)
St.L  52 – 102 (52 – 102)

Detroit collapsed, dropping 22 games off their pace from 1950. What happened? It looks like the offense collapsed, dropping from 837 to 685, a difference of 152 runs, while the pitching only lost 28 runs, 713 to 741.
Aha, except league scoring dropped from 782 per team to 715. In comparison to the league average, the offense went from 55 runs better to 30 runs worse, or 85 runs on offense. The defense went from 69 runs better to 26 runs worse or 95 runs on defense. Wow, 180 run swing in one year.

Cleveland battled the Yankes for first throughout the last 4 months of the year, dropping out on Sept 28. Cleveland’s big strength was their pitching staff as their four starters were among the 10 best in the league. Cleveland made one of the stranger moves with their trade of Minnie Minoso for a bucket of used baseballs and broken fungo bats

The White Sox tried to hustle their way into contention. They increased their stolen base totals by 80, 19 to 99. I would guess that has to be one of the highest percentage increases. Of course their caught stealing increased by 48, 22 to 70. At least they were league average in percentage now at 59%. They also led the league in bruises, hit by pitches, and sacrifice hits. The team still hit with power though: league average in doubles, league leaders in triple by 25%, and 86 homeruns – including the third most on the road. They broke out of the gate fast with a 20 – 5 May, the best percentage month in the majors. Enables them to lead throughout June before Yankees take the lead in July.

The Yankees win again. Joe DiMaggio retires. They have the best home record and best road record. They are second in runs scored and second best in runs allowed. They lead the league in totals bases with a league leading homer total and second highest triples total. They tie for last in doubles. They lead the league in stolen base percent while stealing the second most bases in the league.
Defensively, they are plus 52 in double plays: 190 turned vs 138 GIDP (which does not include all double plays) 3rd in the league. The Athletics were plus 86.
It was a year of change for the Yankees. Joe D retired after a .263 / .365 / .422 season. The heralded replacement, Mickey Mantle debuted May 1 and finished with a .267 / .349 / .443 year. Not bad for a 19 year old. The Yankees battled lots of pitching staff issues as 19 players pitched and 14 started for them. Only the Browns used more.

Attendance:
NwY: 1,950,000
Cle: 1,705,000
Bos: 1,312,000
Chi: 1,328,000
Det: 1,133,000
Phi: 465,000
Was: 695,000
StL: 294,000

The NL:
There was an exciting finish, some of you may have heard of it. (Pythag in ())
NwY: 98 – 59 (93 – 64)
Bro: 97 – 60 (96 – 61)
StL: 81 – 73 (78 – 76)
Bos: 76 – 78 (83 – 71)
Phi: 73 – 81 (77 – 77)
Cin: 68 – 86 (65 - 89)
Pit: 64 – 90 (63 – 91)
Chi: 62 – 92 (63 - 91)

Before we get to the Gotham clubs, let’s take a look at the Phillies. Just last year, they held off the Dodgers and played a tight series against the Yanks. This year, they were 18 games worse. The offense dropped from 722 to 648 while the defense went from 624 to 644. The league average dropped from 720 to 694 so the relative decline by each was offensively, from plus 2 to negative 46 while the defense went from plus 96 to plus 50. Similar to the Tigers, the decline was half offense, half defense, disguised slightly by the drop in offense.

Brooklyn: Great front-line talent. 8 players in the most valuable 22 by win shares. What does that really mean – their starters were good, didn’t get hurt, and the supporting players were not ready for prime time. The team tore the cover off the ball, leading the league in avg, obp, and slug. Also in steals. And hit by pitch, and second in walks. They led the league in runs scored at home and on the road despite the fact that Ebbets Field reduced run scoring by 8 percent.
They were finally good enough on the road, tying the Giants for best road record. Unfortunately, they were one game worse at home than the Giants. Too bad they couldn’t play the Cardinals all year – their 18 wins vs. the Redbirds was the most by one team against another in the majors. Without those games in their record, St. Louis would finish 77 – 55 or .583 instead of the .526 they ended up. Brooklyn led the league for 147 days.

The Giants: Led the league for 7 days. They were the second highest scoring team to the Dodgers and led the league in fewest runs allowed. Their key was to not walk anyone – they led the league in fewest walks – and they gave up the lowest oppoenent’s avg and on base.
They allowed 31 fewer runs than the Dodgers and I am not sure how the Giants did this because the Dodgers’ defense made 42 fewer errors and turned 17 more double plays. The Dodgers allowed 80 more baserunners, but the double plays help and the men-on base number does not reflect the number who reached on errors. It wasn’t homeruns as the Giants only allowed 2 fewer.
Greatly helped by Willie Mays – Rookie of the Year called up after hitting .477 at Minneapolis. Jansen and Maglie led the pitching staff. They led the league in wins – 23 each, were in the top 4 in %age, were in the top 5 in IP, top 4 in Ks, top 4 in OOBP, top 3 in CERA.

Attendance:
NwY: 1,060,000
Bro: 1,283,000
StL: 1,013,000
Bos: 487,000
Phi: 938,000
Cin: 588,000
Pit: 981,000
Chi: 894,000

part 3:

Baseball Stuff:
-- AP poll picks the pennant winners: Brooklyn and the Red Sox
-- UPI poll picks the pennant winners: Giants and Red Sox
-- Only man to hit the centerfield scoreboard in Wrigley Field history. Sam Snead tees off from home plate and hits it on the fly.
-- April 20, Athletics win their first game in Fenway since 1948. They lose their next 10 games in a row.
-- Gil Coan is last player to hit two triples in the same game.
-- Giants lose 11 games in a row in April.
-- Gil McDougald and Jackie Jensen have great 9th inning for Yankees. McDougald hits a two-run triple then Jensen triples him home. Then McDougald hits a grand slam and Jensen follows with a homer of his own.
-- Paul Richards has a reliever play another position while another reliever pitches to one batter, before the original goes back to the mound.
-- Zernial ties Lazzeri’s record of 7 homers in 4 games.
-- Dutch Leonard wins both ends of a doubleheader, pitching 2 innings each game.
-- Vern Stephens sets a record for third basemen with 10 assists. On the last play of the game, the ball is actually hit to Pesky at short, who flips to Stephens who throws to first for the out. Who was running? Ernie Lombardi?
-- Overkill: Feller pitches a 2-hitter. Indians score 16. Win 16 – 0.
-- Mantle reaches base twice on strikeout-wild pitches. The second time he makes it all the way to second. I would love to see that play.
-- Brooklyn lists 12 hitters in the number 9 slot as they use 7 pitchers and 5 pinchhitters.
They lose 12 – 10.
-- Hey that play in Major League actually happened. Ted Williams scores from 2nd on a sac bunt in Red Sox 15 inning win over the Yankees, 11 – 10.
-- White Sox win 14 in a row in May.
-- Walt Dropo, AL Rookie of the Year 1950, sent down to San Diego to regain form.
-- Imagine the hubbub if this happened now. In an effort to break Eddie Lopat’s 11 game winning streak against Cleveland, a drunk runs on the field and throws a black cat at Lopat. The scared cat will actually cling to Lopat’s jersey. Indians win.
-- Yankees trade Bob Porterfield and others to Senators for Bob Kuzava – future World Series fireman.
-- Jackie Robinson leaves 13 men on base as Dodgers split a doubleheader.
-- Puddin’ Head Jones hits inside-the-park grand slam
-- Preacher Roe wins 10 straight to start out on way to 22-3 record.
-- Red Sox pitcher is knocked unconscious when beaned by a wild pick-off throw. Was the catcher trying to throw through or what?
-- Phillies lose 2-0 to Dodgers despite allowing one hit. Reese has a triple after two walks.
-- Hodges has 27 homers on July 5th.
-- Charlie Dressen declares the Giants knocked out when Dodgers are 7-1/2 games up in early July.
-- Joe D and Stengal fued continues as Stengal lets DiMaggio go out to position to start 2nd before calling him back.
-- Maybe Dusty Baker thinks these are his pitchers. Saul Rogovin pitches all 17 innings in 5-4 loss while Ellis Kinder pitches 10 innings of scoreless relief for the win.
-- Vern Stephens plays entire 18 -1/3 inning game without a putout at third.
-- Ferris Fain misses 5 weeks when he breaks his foot kicking first base in frustration. He will still lead AL in average.
-- Mantle sent down to KC for 5 weeks – July 16 – Aug 20.
-- More Great Moments in Dressen. After relief pitcher give Erv Palica gives up Kiner’s third homer of the game, Dressen gives him the choke sign, wrapping his hands around his neck. No wonder Walter Alston was hired soon.
-- Bobby Thomson placed at thrid for rest of season – July 20. Hits .357 rest of way.
-- I would almost pay to hear Sutcliffe or Morgan or McCarver or even Costas pontificate about this game: Yankees leading the White Sox, 3-1. It starts to rain. The Sox score 1. The Yankees stall until enough rain comes to end the game and Yankees win. McDougald is thrown out for stalling. Stengal uses five pitchers in the inning as a delay tactic. Yankees’ ploy succeeds, they win 3-2.
-- Marty McDermott pitches 16-inning complete game. Wins 8-4. He strikes out 15, walks 1.
-- Clyde Vollmer finishes July with 13 homers and 40 rbi in the month.
-- White Sox drop 8 games to Yankees in the standings during July.
-- Canseco wasn’t the first. Willie Mays allows a ball to bounce of his head for a double.
-- August 11: Dodgers up 13-1/2 games on Giants – 49 games to play.
-- Campanella injured when hit by Whitey Lockman. Though he continues to play, he is hampered by bone chips for rest of year.
-- Bobby Doerr retires after begins to suffer from severe sacroiliac pain.
--August 11: Indians and Yankees tied for first – 68-39
-- August 12: Giants start a 16 game winnning streak.
-- Yankees lose because of delay tactics and Philadelphia’s 7:00pm curfew when their 5 run top of the inning is wiped out because Philly doesn’t complete their atbat by 7:00.
-- August 16, Giants back to 9-1/2 games out.
-- Cleveland wins 13 in a row to go up 1 game on Yankees. Streak ends Aug 16.
-- Aug 19: Giants 8 games out.
-- Aug 21: Feller is first AL 20 game winner.
-- Tommy Byrne walks 16 Red Sox to tie AL record. Loses 3-1 in 13 innings as Browns strand 14. Red Sox strand 22.
-- Veeck has “Fans Manager Night.” Team wins 5-3.
-- Gene Woodling hits homers off Early Wynn on June 24, July 24, and Aug 24.
-- Aug 26: Giants 6 games out.
-- Aug 28: Yankees acquire Johnny Sain from Braves for Lew Burdette.
-- Aug 30: Indians lose, drop ½ game behind Yankees.

part 4:

-- Sep 2: Giants 5 games out. Giants steal signs from centerfield during the year. 5 Dodgers thrown out of today’s game.
-- Sep 5: Ralph Branca feels twinges in his arm.
-- Sep 6: Red Sox only 3-1/2 games out.
-- Sep 9: Giants 5-1/2 games out. Beat Branca 2-1. Yankees one game up on Indians.
-- Sep 11: Cleveland up ½ game on Yankees.
-- Sep 12: Newcombe leaves game with pulled muscle in pitching arm.
-- Sep 13: Cards play first doubleheader of century where they play 2 different teams: Defeat Giants in game one. Lose to Braves in game 2.
-- Sep 14: Indians and Yankees tied.
-- Sep 15: Cleveland up ½ game
-- Sep 16: Giants 4-1/2 games out. Yankees in first by .003
-- Sep 17: Yankees 1 up on Indians, 2-1/2 on Red Sox.
-- Sep 18: Yankees and Indians are tied. This is record 10th time this year they are tied for the lead.
-- Sep 19: Yankees and Indians still tied. Yankees have 9 games left, 8 with Red Sox. Indians have 5 of their next 6 against Tigers whom they have beaten 16 out of 17 times this year.
-- Sep 20: Dodger magic number is 5. Yankees win, go up ½ game.
-- Sep 21: Yankees win 5-1, Indians lose 7-6, up 1-1/2 games. Clem Labine disobeys Dressen in first inning – preferring to pitch out of stretch with bases loaded when Dressen says to use a wind-up. Grand slam. Someone is in Dressen’s doghouse.
-- Sep 22: Charlie Dressen presented with oil painting identifying him as manager of 1951 National League Champions. OOPS. Dodgers lose. Giants 3 games back. Yankees lose 5-0, Indians lose 9-4. Still 1-1/2 games.
-- Sep 23: Yankees win 6-1, Indians lose 9 – 1. 2-1/2 games. Giants and Dodgers win. Giants 3 out.
-- Sep 24. Giants win. 2-1/2 out.
-- Sep 25. Giants win. Dodgers lose doubleheader. Giants 1 game out. Indians lose. 3 games out.
-- Sep 26. Giants win. Dodgers win. Dodgers piss off Braves when Jackie steals home in eighth up 13 to 3. Giants 1 game out. Yankees lose. 2-1/2 games up.
-- Sep 27. Dodgers lose. Giants idle. ½ game out.
-- Sep 28. Dodgers lose. Giants idle. IT’S TIED – 94-58. Yankees sweep doubleheader to clinch. Allie Reynolds becomes second person to throw two no-hitters in one year.
-- Sep 29: Giants and Dodgers both win.
-- Sep 30: Giants win 3-2 and Dodgers win 9-8 in 14 innings when Robinson hits a upper-deck shot off Robin Roberts (pitching his 7th inning of relief). WE’RE GOING TO OVERTIME.
-- Oct 1: Giants beat Branca 3-1.
-- Oct 2: Dodgers win 10-0 behind Labine.
-- Oct 3: You know the story. Branca loses for the 6th time this year to the Giants. They hit 11 homeruns off him during the year.

World Series:
Oct 4: Giants win 5-1 as Irvin goes 4 for 4 and steals home. Koslo defeats Reynolds.
Oct 5: Yankees win 3-1 as Mantle hurts knee tripping over an exposed sprinkler. I don’t have a good feeling about this. Lopat defeats Jensen.
Oct 6: Giants win 6-2. Stanky kicks ball out of Rizzuto’s glove game. Hearn over Raschi.
Oct 8: Yankees win 6-2. Reynolds wins over Maglie. DiMaggio homers
Oct 9: Yankees win 13-1. McDougald is first rookie with WS Grand Slam. Lopat over Jansen.
Oct 10: Yankees win 4-3 on Bauer’s bases-loaded triple. Raschi over Koslo.

Hugh Casey kills himself with a shotgun blast to the neck. He is 37.

Minors:
-- I’ll show you pitch counts. Salem beats Victoria 1-0 in 23 innings as Victoria’s Roland Smith pitches the entire game.
-- Wild Thing: Rex Barney walks 16 in 7-2/3 in a Texas League game.
-- In Class D Alabama-Florida League, Ottis Johnson hit in head by pitch. Dies 8 days later.
-- Rick Ankiel eat your heart out. Bill DiBenedetto, a class D pitcher, walks 21. Only loses 5 to 1.
-- Tom Ponce of Phoenix Senators (Southwestern International League) throws 38th straight complete game.

Integration:
Minnie Minoso is first non-white to play for the White Sox on May 1.
First all-black outfield: Game 1 of World Series: Mays, Irvin, Hank Thompson

Rookies:
May 1: Minnie Minoso is first black to play for White Sox
May 1: Mickey Mantle hits first career homer
Aug 19: Eddie Gaedel pinch-hits for first time
Sep 13: Bob Nieman is first to homer in first two big league at bats. But he plays for the Browns who lose to the Red Sox anyway.

Saul Rogovin leads AL in ERA
Chet Nichols leads NL in ERA
Minnie Minoso leads AL in steals and triples and hits: .326 / .422 / .500

Notable players playing their first game in 1951:
George Bamberger
Bob Cerv
Clint Courtney
Bob Friend
Sam Jones
Johnny Logan
Dale Long
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Gil McDougald
Bob Nieman
Pete Runnels
Suitcase Simpson
Frank Thomas
Bob Turley
Dick Williams
(Minoso actually played a few games in 1949).

Retiring this year:
Sam Chapman
Joe DiMaggio
Bobby Doerr
Wally Moses
Danny Murtaugh
Johnny Vander Meer

Business / Political Matters:
-- Guido Rujo sold his interest in the Braves to his partners, Lou Perini and Joe Many
-- Baseball signs a 6 year deal to broadcast the All-Star game over radio and tv for $1 million per. The owners are angry with Commissioner Chandler for getting such a small amount and over such a long time.
-- CA governor Earl Warren denies he is a candidate for Commissioner. Boy that would have changed US history, huh?
-- South Carolina legislature calls for World Series Thrower Joe Jackson to be reinstated.
-- March 9, Browns seek a $600,000 loan to stay afloat. Later that month, they reveal plans to move the team to Milwaukee.
-- J Edgar Hoover reports that he turned down offer of Commissioner. Ok, there could have been someone worse at the job than Bud Selig.
-- Happy Chandler is not reelected as Commissioner.
-- Player rep Fred Hutchison asks that players have a say in selection of new Commish.
-- Brooklyn signs a 21-year lease with Vero Beach to have their spring training there.
-- Warren Giles suggests Douglas MacArthur as new Commish
-- Athletics play first Opening Night game in AL history
-- Jim Prendergast files $150,000 suit challenging baseball’s reserve clause when he is traded from Syracuse to Beaumont.
-- Three team deal that gets Minoso from Cleveland to Chicago: Minoso is traded from Cleveland to Chicago. Paul Lehner from Philadelphia As to Chicago. Lou Brissie from Philly to Cleveland (the key player in the deal.) Gus Zernial and Dave Philley from Chicago to Philly. Sam Zoldak and Ray Murray from Cleveland to Philly.
-- NY Rep Celler plans a probe of baseball’s antitrust exemption.
-- Indians sign new Feller, bonus baby Billy Joe Davidson, for $150,000. He will not pitch in the majors.
-- Tommy Holmes replaces Billy Southworth as Braves manager on June 19.
-- Bill Veeck gets option to purchase Browns from the DeWitts.
-- Former Cub minor leaguer, Boyd Tepler, sues the Cubs for $450,000 for negligent coaching because they allowed him to continue pitching with a flaw in his mechanics and he hurts his arm.
-- Helen Traubel sells her shares in Browns to Veeck.
-- Veeck gets needed shares on last day of his option to finish purchase from DeWitts.
-- Gehringer succeeds Billy Evans as Tigers’ GM. Is this like taking the Captain’s job on the Titanic after the iceberg was hit?
-- Celler actually holds hearings about baseball’s antitrust exemption and the reserve clause. Ty Cobb endears himself to current players by saying there is nothing wrong with it.
-- Celler is accused of wanting a third major league to be created. Admits there should be territorial adjustments.
-- Chandler testifies before Celler Committee. Says baseball should expand and several owners just see it as a big business.
-- Baseball elects new Commish: General “Rosey” O’Donnell. President Truman says that the general is busy as he is commanding the air war in Korea.
-- **** ***** elected Commish.
-- Game 1 of Giants / Dodgers is first game to be broadcast coast-to-coast.
Post-Season
-- Veeck hires Hornsby to manage Browns. He turns down Cardinals offer.
-- Celler Committee – minor league exec Leslie O’Connor – major league control of minors is harmful. There are plans to speed a West Coast bid for higher status.
-- Ned Garver proposes a solution to reserve clause dragging down players’ salaries on bad teams. Have a fair rating system. You have to be paid the average salary of someone with your rating or traded to a team with some cash to pay you.
-- Celler Committee: Branch Rickey argues the farm system saved the minors during the depression. Calls for baseball to be protected from anti-trust actions.
-- Larry MacPhail calls for 4 new major leagues.
-- NLRB sues Indians over a union-requested firing. First instance of Taft-Hartley Act being applied to sports.
-- Celler Committee reveals Dodgers made profit of $2.364 million over 1946-1949. The Dodgers claimed loss in 1950 was due entirely to the promotion of the Brooklyn Dodgers NFL team.
-- PCL player and aspiring actor Chuck Connors opposes major league draft. He would rather stay on the West Coast than go to any team that drafted him. PCL backs him, calls for higher draft prices.
-- AL lifts ban on night games on Sundays. Adopts NL rules on suspensending games.


Thanks as always to baseballlibrary.com, the Baseball Rookies Encyclopedia, STATS All-Time Sourcebook, Win Shares, baseballreference.com, Koppett's Concise History of MLB. Any errors are caused by my being up way too late. I'm not sure I have all the games back stuff correct for pennant races.
Also, the Yankees/Indians race was great for 4 months, but no one remembers it.

Prelim.

I know some folks aren't going to be happy about the Dickey placement. Oh well. He is MUCH higher on my PHoM rankings, but I have a nubmer of guys already in who I beleive are more deserving than Bill. Unless he bizarrely makes it in this year, I have three weeks to decide if I am wrong.

PHoM matches top 2 for the third year in a row.

1. Josh Gibson
2. Mel Ott
3. Mule Suttles
4. Eppa Rixey
5. George Van Haltren
6. John Beckwith
7. Jake Beckley
8. Mickey Welch
9. Biz Mackey
10. Cool Papa Bell
11. Tommy Leach
12. Edd Roush
13. Bill Dickey
14. George Sisler
15. Hugh Duffy

16-20. Rice, Moore, Averill, Ryan, Powell
21-25. Childs, Monroe, Griffith, Grimes, Streeter
26-30. Lundy, Doyle, Sewell, Mullane, White

Will we start considering Japanese players?

Will you start voting again, James? :-)

Seriously, our mission is to be an alternative to the HOF. Since that latter institution doesn't allow Japanese players, we also decided not to.

We are planning an International HoM after we finally reach the present time with the HoM project, so we haven't forgot about them.

I know some folks aren't going to be happy about the Dickey placement.

I'm not unhappy, Rusty, but just confused.

When you say we don't allow Japanese players, does that mean we won't be able to give Ichiro Japanese credit in the 202x elections?

I'm not unhappy, Rusty, but just confused.

This is Bill Dickey... not Dickey Pearce. :-)

The Bill James Ranking All-Caucasian Ballot (Pitcher Rank Divided by Two)

1. Dizzy Dean (25 P)
2. Wally Berger (13 CF)
3. Earl Averill (14 CF)
4. Edd Roush (15 CF)
5. Roger Bresnahan (16 C)
6. Hughie Jennings (18 SS)
7. Tony Lazzeri (19 2B)
8. Hack Wilson (19 CF)
9. Carl Mays (38 P)
10. Wally Schang (20 C)
11. Larry Doyle (20 2B)
12. Tommy Leach (20 3B)
13. Hugh Duffy (20 CF)
14. Wes Ferrell (40 P)
15. Joe Sewell (23 SS)

Not a whole lot of guys clogging up the tops of our collective ballots on this list.

That's really 3-17 with 1 & 2 being Ott and Dickey I take it.

Yeah. What David said.

What I noticed was the four centerfielders on the ballot, starting with Wally Berger, who is not next-in-line for induction.

Is the HoM shortchanging the CF?

When you say we don't allow Japanese players, does that mean we won't be able to give Ichiro Japanese credit in the 202x elections?

Totally different, Carl. Since he will definitely be eligible for the HOF, he's eligible for the HoM. Giving him credit is appropriate.

This is Bill Dickey... not Dickey Pearce. :-)

LOL

What I noticed was the four centerfielders on the ballot, starting with Wally Berger, who is not next-in-line for induction.

Is the HoM shortchanging the CF?

I think it's pretty well established that WS overrates CF defense slightly, though we could revisit that matter.

What the James list also highlights is that his ranking system is much more peak-friendly than the HoM electorate.

What Dean and Berger have to offer are great win-share peaks.

James' rankings are also more friendly to the 1900-1930 NL than we have been.

Ok, here's my initial shot at this. Keep in mind that I've only analyzed the 'big 3' newbies, so if there's a 'dark horse' I'll be stumping for, I haven't found him yet.

1-Josh Gibson-I'm very confident he was the greatest catcher of all time.
2-Mel Ott-The whole package; career, peak, a ring.
3-Bill Dickey-Picked the wrong year to retire. He's a 1st-year electee in a lot of years, but in 1952, he can't say he's the best catcher on the ballot and he can't say he's the best New York player on the ballot. Tough luck, but he won't have to wait too long.
4-John Beckwith-Suttles was a better hitter, but I think Beckwith had more value.
5-Mule Suttles-See Beckwith. Best NegL power hitter not named Gibson
6-Earl Averill-With PCL credit, you can add career value to an already nice peak.
7-Eppa Rixey-Great Long Career; long enough that his near total lack of peak doesn't kill him.
8-Jake Beckley-I've upped in in my re-analysis this week. He's not inner-circle, but definitely 'in' when the back-log-clearing years come around.
9-Dick Redding-One of the great Negro League pitchers
10-Gavvy Cravath-Giving him credit back to '07 gives him pretty solid career numbers to go with the peak.
11-Hughie Jennings-5 phenomenal years. Its enough, I think, but he'll need to wait.
12-Clark Griffith-Long career, solid peak.
13-George Sisler-The peak is hard to ignore.
14-Wes Ferrell-He's not Grove, Hubbell or Lyons, but he's 4th I this period. I upped him in 29-31 for pitching against much tougher offenses than grove did.
15-Wally Schang-I like his offense from the catcher slot.
16-Joe Sewell-Slick fielder, above average hitter. He's in my gray area where I don't know if he's HoM-worthy or not(this started around Sisler and will end several players off my ballot)
17-Ned Williamson-Excellent defensively and 2nd only to Sutton at the position for the period.
18-Cool Papa Bell-Strong career still has him 2nd to Averill in CFs right now.
19-Rube Waddell-Nice peak
20-Vic Willis-Nice peak
21-Indian Bob Johnson-Solid for the years he was in the MLB. Deserves a couple years of prior credit as well, I think.
22-Biz Mackey-Nice career value
23-Roger Bresnahan-Drops a little because I've been counting him as a full-time catcher when he played a fair amount in the OF.
24-Buzz Arlett-Still in the process of placing him.
25-Jimmy Ryan-OF Glut. Way too close to call.

Seriously, our mission is to be an alternative to the HOF. Since that latter institution doesn't allow Japanese players, we also decided not to.

We are planning an International HoM after we finally reach the present time with the HoM project, so we haven't forgot about them.

Did we really decide that? I thought the issue was still unresolved. The HOF doesn't allow minor league players, or Negro League/international players either (except when they set up a special comittee for Negro Leaguers.)

I remember there being very few advocates for doing Japanese players right now. WE are including NeL players because they do happen to be in the HOF now and we are dong MiL players for much the same reason we are doing NeL players, because they are guys who should have been playing in MLB.

The real reasons we decided against doing JL players are as follows (to the best of my knowledge):

1. It would be a major undertaking that we would have troubling doing right now.

2. We have a specific number of players slated for the HOM, based on the number of players in the HOF. We would have to either a) add more players or b) shut our doors to some deserving players that played in the States.

3. If we were to do a) there would be a problem because we simply dont' know how many JL players should be HOMers. It could be 4 it could be 40 and it is most likely somwhere in between.

I am all for going back over and doing JL players after we catch up to present and do things such as managers, GM's, etc.

1. Doesn't seem much of a problem to me. It wouldn't be any more major than what we've done with Negro Leaguers. We're going to run out of newly eligible Negro Leaguers in a few years, so we'll neeed something to do anyway.

2. Is a semantic argument at best. The HOF has never considered career minor leaguers, so if Buzz Arlett gets elected, then some worthy major leaguer will be kept out of the HOM (though is that person really worthy if Buzz Arlett, or Sadaharu Oh, is more meritorius than him?). The numerical symmetry is nice, but not really an essential feature of the HOM. Besides, by the time we catch up, won't the numerical match not exist anymore? Or are we going to determine how many people we elect from 2007 on based on how many people the HOF and VC have inducted?

3. Is the same as number 1. For what it's worth, I'd be surprised if there were more than a half dozen Japanese Players that deserve serious consideration for induction.

3. Is the same as number 1. For what it's worth, I'd be surprised if there were more than a half dozen Japanese Players that deserve serious consideration for induction.

It would strike me as very surprising if just six Japanese players turned out to be serious candidates. You know that Oh, Sasaki, Suzuki, Matsui, and Mastui would probably emerge as candidates without too much deep thought. Given 50-70 years of serious league activity in Japan, as well as the influx of "foreign" talent (read Rhodes, Bass, Cromartie, etc), there's probably a lot more than just six.

The more we've picked through the NgLs for candidates, the more we find, I'd bet the same would hold true for the Japanese leagues, particularly in light of the fact that they are well documented and that their conversion factors have been more rigorously examined.

Make that more than a half dozen *pre-Nomo* Japanese players.

I remember there being very few advocates for doing Japanese players right now.

I was actually one of them, but Joe convinced me that the HoM shouldn't do it. It still would have been nice, though.

I am pretty sure that keeping the HOM the size of the HOF was one of the essential features that Joe wrote into the constitution.

And I will state for the record that I in no way find Buzz Arlett to be a HOMer, I currently have him at #48 even with Kiki Cuyler. Though I guess in the abstract a career MiL could be worthy.

The Constitution doesn't say anything about matching the HOF numerically. In fact, it says we'll be electing 3 and 4 people a year through 2014 at least.

I didn't mean to imply that you thought Arlett was a HOMer, and I don't think he is either. But some voters do and they are allowed to vote for him.

I think it's pretty well established that WS overrates CF defense slightly, though we could revisit that matter.

This is not relevant to a ranking of just centerfielders, though. Unless you mean overrates CF defense compared to CF offense, instead of compared to LF and RF defense.)

What the James list also highlights is that his ranking system is much more peak-friendly than the HoM electorate.

What Dean and Berger have to offer are great win-share peaks.

True, but look up and down the list from #12 Berger. 8 of the Top 9 will go in (Griffey Jr. won't be eligible).

10-12 are Jimmy Wynn, Larry Doby, and Dale Murphy. Berger at 13. After Averill at 14 you've got Roush, Ashburn, Fred Lynn Vada Pinson, Hack Wilson, Hugh Duffy, Cesar Cedeno, Amos Otis, and then HoMer Max Carey.

How many of that 10-22 ranking (Berger to Otis) to you see us inducting? Right now I'd say Murphy and probably Averill. Ashburn might be borderline with little peak.

So that gives us essentially a Top 10, plus early players Carey, Gore, and Hines (no Dukakis?). Compare that to LF, where the Top 16 (down to Goslin) have been first-ballot-types, and 21-24 are already in. And RF where about 15 of the Top 16 will be in (with Dave Parker and Bobby Bonds on the borderline). And the rest of Top 20 (Murcer, Singleton, Dawson, Reggie Smith) squarely on the fence.

It seems to me that either we are under-rating centerfielders, or there have simply been 50% more corner outfielders (at each position) who are HoM-worthy.

Either one is possible, but I think if its the former, we should notice before the CFers get lapped.

Phillybooster,

True, but don't forget that Charleston, Stearnes, and Torriente are all CFs (and Dihigo?), while only Pete Hill is a corner OF among NgL selections.

Meanwhile, Bell remains highly viable, Gene Benson comes along in a few years, Doby gets a little NgL credit, while among the corners, Irvin is the biggest name coming up.

I don't know where W.B. Wright, Sam Jethroe, and Willard Brown belong (that is corner OF vs. CF), but they'll be very much in the mix too.

Anyway, vote for Duffy, it's not so, uh, tough-y!

On outfielders, looking ahead only so far as the 1952 election. After that election, we will have inducted, by my count, 14 left-fielders, 10 centerfielders, and 8 rightfielders.

Left field: O'Rourke, Simmons, Delahanty, Clarke, Burkett, Hill, Wheat, Goslin, Kelley, Keeler, Magee, Sheckard, Jackson, Stovey

Centerfield: Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, Stearnes, Hamilton, Hines, Torriente, Gore, Carey, Pike

Rightfield: Ruth, Ott, Crawford, Waner, Heilmann, Kelly (1/2), Flick, Caruthers (1/2), Thompson

Not quite balanced. Looking at the backlog, however, the top 6 1/2 unelected outfielders are all centerfielders:

Averill, C.P. Bell, Van Haltren, Duffy, Roush, Leach (1/2), Browning.

The next 7 are all rightfielders but one:

Cravath, C. Jones (lf), B. Johnson, Rice, Klein, Ryan, Arlett

So, once we get into the backlog, we have a good chance of getting the representation of pre-1950 centerfielders up to the level of pre-1950 leftfielders. Right field _will_ trail pre-1950, but we're ok with that, I guess, because right field wasn't used much as a position to put a real player prior to 1885 or so?

I haven't looked ahead, but as long as we do get decently into the backlog, the lf/cf balance should even out pretty well.

D'oh!

Switch Keeler from Left to Right.

Change count from 14, 10, 8 to 13, 10, 9.

Hope that was the only classification error . . .

The real issue isn't corner/center OF balance, anyway. It's corner OF vs. catchers and 3B!

I don't personally calssify Pete browning as a CFer in my spreadsheets. He is in with the corner outfielders. Anyone know if I should switch this?

I don't personally calssify Pete browning as a CFer in my spreadsheets.

If I had to pigeonhole him into one position, it would be left field.

So, once we get into the backlog, we have a good chance of getting the representation of pre-1950 centerfielders up to the level of pre-1950 leftfielders.

Not that I've checked, but are we really sure that we are actually going to get into the backlog? The voting schedule was set up so that, with perfectly even talent distribution, we would elect only some number of new guys every year. Also, the backlog gets added to every year it isn't dipped into. Isn't it possible that the next few "backlog" picks will be guys that aren't even eligible yet?

Pete Browning:
490-CF
477-LF
75-3B
49-2B
44-SS
35-RF
26-1B
1-P

Plurality-ruled categorizers often dump him into the CF pool, but he was not known for his defense.

Chris Cobb wrote:

So it looks like the work for 1952 is this:

Ott vs. Gibson for the #1 spot.

Dickey vs. other top returning candidates for the #3 spot (I think this one goes pretty clearly to Dickey).

Figuring out what to do with Chet Brewer (and other NeL pitchers).

Sammy T. Hughes and Sam Bankhead were good players, but they're not serious candidates for the HoM. Sammy T. Hughes hit .300/.414 in the NeL in a 14-year MLE career. If those were major-league numbers, he'd be a borderline candidate. Sam Bankhead hit .285/.387 in a 15-year MLE career.

Will anyone be looking at Double Duty Radcliffe? Although I suppose it's unlikely that he will emerge as a major candidate, these "double duty" players can sometimes have surprisingly high value.

Crosetti had a couple of big seasons in the PCL before going to the Yankees. Since it would take more than a couple of big seasons to make him a viable candidate, I'm not planning to calculate MLEs. Looking at his youth while playing with the Seals and his early peak in the majors, I have to wonder whether he may have shaved a couple of years off his age.

# 20 Chris Cobb wrote:

I think it's pretty well established that WS overrates CF defense slightly, though we could revisit that matter.

This bit of "established" knowledge is cited at least two or three times each "year" on the discussion thread or ballot thread. And about every six or seven years I ask what kind of evidence is there that CFers are overrated. I have yet to get an answer, so I'll ask it again.

My understanding is that WS gives about 2 additional WS per season to an average CF than to an average corner OF. At least for 20th century play, that seems like a conservative value (2 WS is equivalent to about 6 runs). I once looked at a few teams from the aughts to compare how WARP1 rated the outfielders defense compared to WS, and for those teams WARP1 appeared to value CF defense more highly than WS did.

So, I'm still looking for the source of this widely accepted "fact" that WS supposedly overrates CF defense.

As to how to place Pete Browning as a fielder, well, it depends on your criteria.

Here are four ways of looking at it:
1) games at position, according to BP
2) games at position, pro-rated to 154-game seasons
3) years as a regular in which he appeared in more games at that position than any other
4) Career FRAR at that position, W1/W2

CF 490 -- 584 -- 5 -- 107/91
LF 477 -- 550 -- 5 -- 80/96
3B 75 -- 115 -- 1 -- 13/-10
2B 49 -- 91 -- 1 -- 27/2
SS 44 -- 76 -- 0 -- 14/0
RF 35 -- 40 -- 0 -- 2/2
1B 26 -- 37 -- 0 -- 4/-2
P 1 -- 1 -- 0 -- 0/0

If he gets only one outfield position, it's center for me, though it would probably make more sense to call him 1/2 center and 1/2 left. But if one started to divide outfielders between positions, the whole count would need re-doing by the more exacting method.

John Murphy wrote:

Will we start considering Japanese players?

...Seriously, our mission is to be an alternative to the HOF. Since that latter institution doesn't allow Japanese players, we also decided not to.

We are planning an International HoM after we finally reach the present time with the HoM project, so we haven't forgot about them.

If that's what Joe has decided, then it really ought to be put into our constitution. Right now the rules in the constitution pretty clearly allow voting for Japanese League players. If the constitution doesn't stay up to date with changes in the rules, it will become a pretense to say that it's our governing document.

This year's ballot looks pretty clear-cut to me, in terms of the new candidates. I think Gibson is obviously #1, Ott is obviously #2, and Dickey is pretty clearly better than all the returning candidates at #3. None of the other candidates looks close to the ballot to me. Brewer has the best case, I suppose, but it doesn't seem to me to be particularly strong, barring any new evidence I'm not aware of.

My prelim ballot, therefore, is as follows:

1. Josh Gibson: Died of a stroke at the age of 35 on Jan. 20, 1947 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.)

2. Mel Ott: Died from injuries sustained in a car accident at the age of 49 on November, 21, 1958 in New Orleans, Louisiana.

3. Bill Dickey: Died of unspecified causes at the age of 86 on November 12, 1993, in Little Rock, Arkansas.

4. Buzz Arlett: Died of a heart attack at the age of 65 on May 16, 1964 in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

5. John Beckwith: Died of an unspecified illness at the age of 56 on January 5, 1956 in New York, New York.

6. Mule Suttles: According to the social security death index, Mule died in Newark, New Jersey in July, 1966, at the age of 66. No date of death was given. The cause of death was cancer.

7. Pete Browning: Died of mastoiditis at the age of 44 on September 10, 1905 in Louisville, Kentucky.

8. Gavy Cravath: Died of a heart ailment at the age of 82 on May 23, 1963 in Laguna Beach, California.

9. Jose Mendez: Died of broncopneumonia at the age of 41 on October 31, 1928 in Havana, Cuba.

10. Edd Roush: Died of a heart attack at the age of 94 on March 21, 1988 in Bradenton, Florida. Roush suffered the heart attack at Bill McKechnie field, just prior to the start of a spring training game.

11. Wes Ferrell: Died of an unspecified illness at the age of 68 on December 9, 1976 in Sarasota, Florida.

12. Rube Waddell: Died of tuberculosis at the age of 37 on April Fool's Day, 1914 in San Antonio, Texas.

13. Dick Redding: Died of a "strange malady" at the age of 57 in late July in an Islip, New York mental hospital.

14. Ben Taylor: Died of pneumonia at the age of 64 on January 24, 1953 in Baltimore, Maryland.

15. George Sisler: Died of an unspecified illness at the age of 80 on March 26, 1973 in Richmond Heights, Missouri.

"WS overrates CF defense slightly"
--
"This bit of "established" knowledge is cited...each "year" on the discussion thread.... every six or seven years I ask what kind of evidence is there that CFers are overrated. I have yet to get an answer"
--
valid Q, Brent. If I can make time this weekend to check RCAA vs RCAP for LF/CF/RF in different eras, I will post the results.

Preliminary Ballot, 1952 -- top 5

1. Josh Gibson. One of the top 10 players so far eligible. Best catcher of all time.
2. Mel Ott. One of the top 20 playrs so far eligible, #2 rightfielder after Ruth.
(2a. Mel Gibson. Action movie star. Don't care for him personally, but his stats are great . . . )
3. Bill Dickey. About even with Gabby Hartnett for best major-league catcher so far eligible. Most years he'd debut in an elect-me slot. Not in 1952.
4. John Beckwith. Slips two places this year. No shame in that. Gotta love the California League numbers!
5. Clark Griffith. Made it work when few pitchers could.


Preliminary Ballot for 1953 -- Top 5

1. Willie Wells. Great, all-around player.
2. Bill Dickey. Could swap places with Wells, depending on how Wells' win shares look. I have Appling and Dickey next to each other in the 1930s rankings, so this one is going to be close.
3. Hank Greenberg. I give war credit. Awesome hitter.
4. John Beckwith. Slightly behind Greenberg, I think. Could swap places with him when I examine Greenberg's record more closely.
5. Clark Griffith. Better than Red Ruffing or Billy Herman, who will probablly make my ballot, but not the top 5.

My first ballot in a while, as I’ve finally caught up (I think) with the discussion threads on all the relevant players. Voting for more catchers this year than I ever have before, or likely ever will again…


1. Josh Gibson – Not much to discuss here. The greatest catcher in baseball history, with a Wagnerian lead over whoever’s in second place.

2. Mel Ott – A no-doubt inner circle HOMer on the order of Tris Speaker or Frank Robinson. Not helped by his ballpark anywhere near as much as people think.

3. Mule Suttles – Hitting style, career length, and rate stats very similar to those of Reggie Jackson. Tough to decide whether to place Suttles or Dickey higher on my ballot; Suttles wins out by virtue of his ~353 win shares as opposed to Dickey’s 314.

4. Bill Dickey – Great hitter, good backstop and decent career length. Ranks 14th all-time in estimated innings caught, although it’s hard to tell to what extent his career was artificially extended by WWII. I have him pegged as a slightly above average defensive C, although more data on that, even anecdotal, would be appreciated. Never came close to being the best player on his own team in any given year; the best he ever did in terms of Win Shares was 2nd place on Yankees in 1936 and 38.

5. Biz Mackey – Best defensive reputation, by far, among NeL catchers. Slightly more estimated WS than Schang, and so slightly ahead of him on my ballot. Both deserving HOMers, in my view.

6. Cool Papa Bell – So far, I believe we’ve considered two players with 3,700+ ML or MLE hits. One of them, Ty Cobb, was elected to the HOM almost unanimously; the other is annually omitted from the majority of HOM ballots. Think about that for a moment. Is the gulf between these two players THAT great?

In regard to his ballparks, Bell seems extremely likely to have suffered from the Juan Pierre/Coors Field slap hitter effect – his stats likely gained relatively little by playing in such a bandbox; because of the type of hitter he was, he was unable to take full advantage. This negated his real-life value to his teams somewhat, but in re Bell’s hypothetical MLB career, I think he would have posted similar stats in any ballpark. So I’m not penalizing him all that much for playing his best years in a hitter’s park.

Essentially I see Bell as Max Carey x 1.33, and Carey was viewed by the electorate as a deserving HOMer.

7. Pete Browning – Has been listed on every HOM ballot I’ve ever cast, and I don’t expect that to change.

8. John Beckwith – See Pete Browning.

9. Wally Schang – What’s not to like here? 117 OPS+ in an era when catchers were not expected to hit. Adequate defensively. Very long career for a catcher (or for anyone, for that matter). Very durable.

10. Hughie Jennings – I generally have a weakness for peak value. So did Hughie.

11. Dick Redding – Was Curt Schilling to Smoky Joe’s Randy Johnson, except did it for a longer period of time. Alas, gets no extra credit for having one of the best baseball nicknames of all time.

12. Gavy Cravath – 30th all-time in OPS+. His tremendous seasons in the high minors are validated by his major league performance.

13. George Sisler – I think HOM voters are overcompensating for Sisler’s overratedness. The man batted .340 and collected 2800 hits, for chrissakes. Walks or no walks, that’s a HOMer.

14. Eppa Rixey – Not as sexy as Wes Ferrell, but superior in my view. Longevity and durability in the extreme.

15. Chet Brewer – Am still in the process of evaluating him, but so far his career seems comparable to Rixey’s in both quality and longevity. May be overrating him by placing him here; we’ll see.


16. Earl Averill
17. Joe Sewell
18. Jake Beckley
19. Roger Bresnahan
20. Spots Poles
21. Rube Waddell
22. Edd Roush
23. José Méndez
24. Wes Ferrell
25. Sam Rice


Top 10 returnees not mentioned:

Clark Griffith – Short and relatively great career, but never one of the league’s workhorses even in his prime – finished in top 5 in innings pitched only once. No thanks.

One I haven't done yet and need to remind myself to get done is to run Hal Trosky through my favorite offensive system. I want to see how he compares to such characters as George Stone, John Titus, Mike Donlin, or even Elmer Flick.

Does Win Shares overrate CF'ers?

For each season I develop a top-32 list for Win Shares. There is often more than 32 due to ties.

Here's an example of the distribution by position for 1901-1905.

-- 01 02 03 04 05 -- Tot Exp Delt
RF 03 05 04 04 03 -- 19 14.6 +04.4
CF 07 03 04 05 05 -- 24 14.6 +09.4
LF 05 06 06 02 06 -- 24 14.6 +09.4
1B 01 02 01 01 03 -- 08 14.6 -06.6
2B 02 00 01 02 01 -- 06 14.6 -08.6
3B 01 04 02 04 00 -- 11 14.6 -03.6
SS 03 02 03 04 03 -- 15 14.6 +00.4
Ca 00 00 00 00 00 -- 00 14.6 -14.6
Pi 14 15 11 16 12 -- 68 58.3 +09.7
--------------------------------
-- 36 37 32 38 32 -- 175 175 0.0

There are 64% more CF'ers on the list than would expect from an assumption of positional equality. 50% more than one would expect even if one assumed that catchers won't make it at all due to the two-catcher playing time split.

Interesting trivia stat. None of those CF All-Stars have been elected to the HOM.

Chris, I'll see your '53 and raise you '54 and '55! As I said earlier, '53 will give all of us a chance to disagree (again, and finally after all these boring and obvious choices).

Choices post-1952 are subject to "reflection," shall we say.

1952

1. Gibson--PHoM
2. Ott--PHoM--a twosome of nearly Cobb, Speaker dimensions
3. Dickey--no Eddie Collins, however
4. Jennings
5. Sisler
6. D. Moore
7. Suttles
8. Waddell
9. Bond
10. Roush
11. Williamson
12. Bell
13. Joss
14. Beckwith
15. Klein

Other newbies on ballot? Probably not, but possibly Chet Brewer.

1953 (assuming we elect Gibson and Ott, a very good assumption)

1. Greenberg--PHoM--awesome peak, WWII credit
2. Dickey--PHoM
3. Wells--I'm a real SS fan, I don't care if we are overrepresenting the position, this is where a lot of the greatest athletes are. OTOH catchers are great athletes, too, but with less opportunity to rack up great baseball stats.
4. Jennings
5. Sisler
Other newbies on ballot? Byrd and Herman strong possibilities, Ruffing and Hack less strong but possibilities.

1954 (assuming we elect Greenberg and Dickey, a tenuous assumption I admit)

1. Vaughan--PHoM
2. Medwick--PHoM--(ducks!)
3. Wells
4. H. Smith
5. Jennings
Other newbies? Probably not, though Bucky Walters underrated by history.

1955 (assuming we elect Vaughan and Medwick, the latter not a good assumption at all but continuing with my method [or madness])

1. Leonard--PHoM
2. Ray Brown--PHoM
3. Wells
4. H. Smith--top 4 all NeLers
5. Jennings
Other newbies? No.

And yes, love Hal Trosky. Started out like Albert Pujols. Then more of a George Sisler comp. I used to work with a guy whose father (down in Iowa) was Hal Trosky's best friend. He (the younger) had no clue that Trosky had been anywhere near as good as he really was. I understand that Trosky suffered excrutiatingly painful headaches for the rest of his life.

Otherwise the ML newbies don't impress. But even without Gibson, the foursome of Brewer, Bankhead, Hughes and Radcliffe are quite a group. It is becoming increasingly difficult to keep track of the NeL 2Bs and utility IF (Beckwith, now Bankhead). The SSs I sort of have a handle on, but definitely losing it on the 2Bs.

My gut says, however, that Scales and Hughes were no Bill Monroes.

I would add that Trosky has an intriguing set of most similar players on bbref. Jason Giambi, huh? As in heckuva hitter with unusual health problems truncating the career. And most similar by age (when young) to Albert Pujols, Eddie Murray, Orlando Cepeda. I mentioned Stone, Titus, Donlin, Flick - maybe I should also look a little forward and ask how he compares to Charlie Keller - well, maybe he's not really at Keller's level.

Talk of Trosky and Giambi?

HOMSOP#722.03 demands an utterly frivolous and unsubstantiatable connection be assumed between Trosky's headaches and steroid use, due to Giambi comp. Punctuation called for: many exclamation points to convey the thoughtful ambience of sports-talk radio.

HOMSOP#321.03-10 requires that sustained conversation of Tro(t)sky be interrupted by ridiculous soviet/communist punnery containing outspoken opposition to five-year plans and stern warnings to avoid ice picks.

<insert sarcastic roids and planned-economy jokes here.>

Win Shares and CFers
or, how much position bonus to give to CF over corner OFers?
This isn't a full treatment, but a pretty comprehensive one, with many small possible flaws.
I took the OFers who made both the top 20 in RCAA and RCAP for each 20-yr period from 1900 to 1999 (5 periods). I used only those seasons they played OF. I compared RCAA-RCAP to see the difference between a league avg hitter. The difference between the CF avg and the corner OF svg (as determined by the 'career' position designation of each player) should be the approx difference in offense between the two spots.
Yes, this does NOT account for things like suerstars throwing avgs off, players moving to or away from CF in some seasons, diff offensive levels, longer careers for some than others, etc. But, the results:
years ..LF-RF CF
1900-1919 .71 24
1920-1939 107 46
1940-1959 .97 74
1960-1979 137 67
1980-1999 100 124
1900-1999 102 67

So, the CFers averaged 35 runs per career less of a drop from RCAA to RCAP. Now, I don't know the 'avg' career length in these sets, but it should be between 10 and 14 years, which means between 2.5 and 3.5 runs, or about 1 win share.

Thank you, jimd and TomH for responding to my question about evidence that win shares overrates center fielders.

jimd # 48 shows that CFers (and LFers) show up among the leaders in WS more often than one would expect if the distribution were random. (Catchers and 2B are underrepresented.)

TomH # 53 looked at career RCAA and RCAP for top CFers and corner OFers, and found that the difference averaged between 2.5 and 3.5 runs (or 1 win share) per year.

Both of these analyses indicate that a WS evaluation will likely produce more CFers than corner OFers. What isn't clear to me, though, is whether this represents a bias in WS or a true difference in talent distribution across positions. Isn't it possible that more of the top outfielders would turn out to be CFers either simply by chance, or because better players tend to be assigned to CF? I don't see any reason to believe that talent is necessarily equally distributed across positions.

A question on TomH's study: Since you are looking at career statistics, how did you handle players who switched OF positions during their career? I think several people have pointed out that many HoM candidates like Duffy and Browning are thought of as CFers even though CF represents less than half of their OF games.

Can a Trosky thread be started? He intrigues me, but I need more info. He was 28 in 1941 and had already had 6 strong offensive seasons and had half a strong season that year. What's his story? Did he get injured? Did he go to war midway thru the '41 season? I'd guess the latter. I'd also be interested in knowing possible reasons why he was basically washed up after the war.

baseballlibrary.com..

"After the 1941 season, Trosky announced a premature retirement, due to migraine headaches. He returned to his Iowa farm, but during 1943 he made known his wish to play again. He was sold to the White Sox after being declared 4F by the military. He hit just 10 HR in 1944, sat out a season, played in 1946, and then became a White Sox scout."

Courtesy of baseballlibrary.com :

"After the 1941 season, Trosky announced a premature retirement, due to migraine headaches. He returned to his Iowa farm, but during 1943 he made known his wish to play again. He was sold to the White Sox after being declared 4F by the military. He hit just 10 HR in 1944, sat out a season, played in 1946, and then became a White Sox scout."

Monroe, Bresnahan, Griffith, Joss, Jose Mendez, and Welch are in my PHoM but off my ballot.
Crosetti and Trosky aren’t near the ballot.

I haven’t heard anything to convince me on Brewer so far. Hughes, Bankhead, and Radcliffe don’t have any advocates.

1)Gibson--Best catcher ever.
2)Ott--Ott and Foxx just about even.
3)Dickey--So far I have the catchers rated Gibson, Hartnett, Dickey, Cochrane, Ewing, Schang, Mackey, Bresnahan, Bennett, Ferrell, McGuire, Clements. Dickey is a no-doubt-about-it HOMer, but not this year.
4)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA.
7)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
8)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
9)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
10)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
11)Suttles--Struggling with where to put him.
12)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
13)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
14)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
15)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.

Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #21.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Cool Papa Bell--#23.

Did I miss the memo where Hughes and Bankhead were categorically dismissed? I was under the impression that they had pretty lofty reputations, and while we've seen that those reps don't always translate that well, I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't been any discussion.

I had intended to have them both on my ballot (and Hughes actually pretty high), but I don't want to ignore the prime directive that I apparently slept through.

It's Friday of discussion week, if someone thinks Hughes and Bankhead belong on the ballot it's time to get posting.

IIRC, at some point James wrote about Trosky's role in the rebellion against the Indians' manager (Ossie Vitt, I think, and I think it was somewhere around 1939-1941). He was (with two others) essentially drafted by the large anti-Vitt faction to be the spokesperson to management. It didn't go so well, and word quickly leaked out to the press of his role in the mutiny. The team was known as the "crybabies" or something to that effect and were derided pretty much everywhere (no doubt including Cleveland since they were an underachieving team) and subjected to much taunting.

I don't know how long the taunting lasted, but if I was a migraine-sufferer who hit like him, I don't know that I'd want to put it with it much either....

I don't think I see much difference in reputation between Hughes, Scales, and the remainder of the quite-extensive 2B backlog. Unless there's MLEs out there to prove otherwise, he's not close to my ballot.

Bankhead reminds me of Rev Cannaday. I'd bet they were essentially interchangeable hitters, they both pitched a little bit, and, IIRC, they both played all over the place but were most associated with 2B.

Looking at the NgL 2B backlog, you've got
DeMoss
Allen
Bankhead
Cannaday
Hughes
Scales

already accounted for (and I think I'm forgetting someone, apologies to whoever I've omitted), and none of them strikes me as likely better than anyone in the MLB 2B backlog. Is it possible that there just weren't too many if any HOM-level 2Bs in the NgLs (just Grant, right?), but that there were several HOVGers there?

Dr. Chaleeko, I'd say you are probably right that the possibility exists that the backlog is all HOVGers.

I'm no expert, basing my initial slotting on the opinion polls in the Double Duty book.

IIRC, Hughes didn't rank too far behind Dihigo. I'm not suggesting that they're that close in value/ability/merit, but I am surprised that there hasn't been any discussion by the people that do know what they're talking about. I have no problem kicking both he and Bankhead off my ballot, which I guess the overall silence on these guys is telling me to do.

On Hughes and Bankhead, here's what I wrote in post #4 on this thread:

Sammy T. Hughes and Sam Bankhead were good players, but they're not serious candidates for the HoM. Sammy T. Hughes hit .300/.414 in the NeL in a 14-year MLE career. If those were major-league numbers, he'd be a borderline candidate. Sam Bankhead hit .285/.387 in a 15-year MLE career.

This is a categorical dismissal on my part, but others may differ in their analysis. I haven't done full MLEs for either one, though I could do so. Sammy T. Hughes' career MLE ba/sa without regression to remove potential distortions from varying season length, is .281/.355, taking his major-league career as running from 1932-1945, less 1 season in Mexico and 3 of military service. Sam Bankhead's career MLE ba/sa, with similar caveats, is .256/.318, from 1931-1947, less 1937 in Santa Domingo and 1940-41 in Mexico.

I could do a full regression analysis, and Bankhead's totals might be improved by the inclusion of his Mexican seasons and Holway's data for 1943-45, which is considerably more impressive than the Macmillan data for those seasons, but nothing in their batting records suggests that either of these players are serious candidates.

If someone could post their Mexican league data, I would include it in the calculations. With data on their walks in Mexico, I could carry the analysis far enough to get OPS+ numbers for them, to make sure I'm not selling their offensive production short.

But as far as I can tell, their cases look similar to those of Judy Johnson and Oliver Marcelle: players who were strong defensively and adequate offensively and hence have better reputations than their offensive production will support.

Bankhead was highly versatile (and we know how highly versatility was praised in the NeL--Riley describes him as "a player's player who was at home as a middle inflieder or as an outfielder and excelled at whatever position he was placed"), and Hughes was "picture-perfect" (Riley's words) at second base. One could project him as being as good as Mazeroski defensively to see if that would get him into contention as a candidate, but I'm doubtful.

Don't bother doing more, Chris. Your categorical dismissals have carried enough weight with me in the past, they'll suffice here as well.

Hughes/Bankhead, let your names never cross my lips or keyboards again.

On Bankhead's position:

According to Holway, he pitched in 1932, was an outfielder in 1933, 1935, 1336, and 1938, played second in 1939 and 1945, and played shortstop in 1934, 1942-44, 1946-47.

Macmillan concurs, except that it splits him between 2B and OF in 1936 and has him at shortstop continuously from 1942-47.

I don't know what positions he played in Mexico and Santa Domingo. James ranks him as a shortstop, and that seems to be the position that he played the most.

Hughes was a career second baseman.

Doc (#62):

*BILL MONROE* please!

Clearly the best of the lot.

Memo to Foss: Eat my dust, lol!
(see posts 56-57)

Thanks for the Trosky info Howie and David. While his story is unfortunate, it doesn't seem to be a situation worthy of extra credit.

"A question on TomH's study: Since you are looking at career statistics, how did you handle players who switched OF positions during their career?"
Of the many possible errors in this short study, one certainly might be that in defining players exclusively as 'CF' or 'LF/RF', I am really comparing guys who were a mix of each, and only mostly one or the other. I mean, even such a non-gold-glover as Stan Musial played some CF.
This would tend to UNDER-state the differences between CF and corner OF; the pure CFers are probably a bit more than 1 win share more valuable in terms of 'average less batting ability' than pure corner OFers.

Memo to Foss: Eat my dust, lol!

Aw, man! I didn't even see that!

I bow down before your lightning submit fingers.
:-)

As promised in post #47, a comparison of a bunch of short-career hitters. The numbers shown are proportional to context-scaled RCAA, with the years sorted from best to worst.

Flick  70 68 66 54 54 53 51 41 37 20  3  3 -1
Keller 75 68 65 54 48 47 22 20  7  6  3  1  0
Donlin 76 58 50 37 31 16 10 10  8  8  4  0
Stone  92 54 50 34 14  7  0
Titus  57 32 31 27 27 22 21 14 12  7
Trosky 50 46 43 41 36 34 15  5  4  1 -4

So that's where I'd place Trosky: a little ahead of John Titus, a little behind Mike Donlin.

When we get to him, the Keller/Flick comparison looks interesting.

Boo yah!
back online with the Dell Dimension 3000/Optimum Online.
21st century, here I come!

that said, looks like Keller is more Jennings than Flick.

If you give Keller war credit then he pulls a litle closer.

1952 Ballot:
I’m going away for the next week and I’m not going to get a chance to post this on the ballot thread. If no one has any major objections to my rankings, can someone post it for me?

The 1951 Election Results thread didn’t seem to be working, so my “top 10 returnees not on ballot” might be off a bit.

1) Josh Gibson
Top catcher of all time.

2) Mel Ott
I have him as the ninth best position player thus far. Anyone who can put up a top 5 WARP3 over 60 is an inner-circle HoMer in my book.

3) Bill Dickey
Best White catcher thus far. He’s ahead of Hartnett even before considerations for time missed in WWII.

4) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Highest Career WARP3 (80.9) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (455).

5) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. HoM-worthy peak, if you ask me.

6) Ben Taylor
Ben has a highly regarded historical reputation—Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman.

7) Mule Suttles
Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different, and Mule hit those towering home runs.

8) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

9) John Beckwith
I hope he doesn’t get lost in the mix now that Jud Wilson is in the HoM.

10) Cool Papa Bell
I’m finding it much harder to dismiss Bell’s reputation than it was to dismiss Judy Johnson’s. The longevity factor earns him a ballot spot.

11) Earl Averill
Finally adding some value for PCL years. WARP revisions move him to the top of OF mix. Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.

12) Tommy Bridges
75.7 WARP3, 225 WS edge out Warneke, plus I give him the edge in war credit. Not a spectacular peak, but a nice career.

13) Bob Johnson
Revised WARP bumps Indian Bob onto the ballot. Similar numbers to Averill, but at less valuable defensive position.

14) Fielder Jones
Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 43.9 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

15) Lon Warneke
Better rate stats and peak than Rixey, less career value. They’re practically a tied.

------------------------------------------
Next best 15

16) Eppa Rixey-Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+. Highest career PRAR of eligibles (871).
17) Wally Berger
18) Joe Sewell-Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. He’s been treading water in this area of the ballot for a while. I haven’t seen anything that convinces me he should move one way or the other.
19) George Van Haltren
20) Paul Derringer
21) Rube Waddell
22) Jose Mendez—Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat.
23) Spot Poles—332 estimated WS. Revelations about Bell make me think Poles has been underrated by history.
24) Dick Lundy—Probably underrated as well.
25) Hughie Jennings—57.2 WARP3, 150 WS in top 5 years! (Too bad that makes up 82% and 70% of his career value, respectively.)
26) Dobie Moore
27) Bill Monroe
28) Urban Shocker
29) Gavy Cravath
30) Harry Hooper

Other Top 10 (?) not on my ballot
32) George Sisler
34) Clark Griffith—He’s got ok peak value and ok career value, but not outstanding enough in either to rank higher.
59) Biz Mackey—Somewhere between Santop and Schang, but much closer to Wally.

New Players in Top 100
76) Chet Brewer

Posted by Curly Howard on May 22, 2005 at 12:46 PM

I’m going away for the next week and I’m not going to get a chance to post this on the ballot thread. If no one has any major objections to my rankings, can someone post it for me?

Why, sointenly!

Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk!

Sunnday2,

Regarding my forgetting Bill Monroe, as K. Cobain once sang, I'm "all apologies."

Monroe appears to be the lone member of the NgL 2B crowd who could stand out from the crowd of 2Bs.

bump...

Hey guys, as far as the Japanese players go - if we want to include them we'll need to add slots for them, since they weren't accounted for when we set everything up. I remember there being little interest in it, but those that were interested were very interested. Isn't there a thread established for that already? I thought we decided we were going to skip them, but I could be mistaken.

As for Ichiro! and others like him, I would say YES, he should get Japanese credit, as should any Japanese player who played significant time in MLB, even if we don't vote on Japanese players.

study update (from post #53)
--
I found what I think is a better way to answer the Q "how much difference in offensive ability between positions?"
--
I found the 25 highest RCAA and RCAP is Single Seasons for each position, in all years 1876 to 2003. I averaged each, and took the difference. Yes, this is only the best seasons, and lots of other cavetas still apply, but at least this gets rid of the problem of guys switching positions from year to year.
Results:
pos RCAA RCAP Diff
SS ..72 ..78 ..-6
CF .107 ..96 ..11
RF .107 ..93 ..14
LF .116 .103 ..13
1B .104 ..87 ..17

A problem with this method is that if superstars populate a position at the same time, it distorts the data (Snider-Mantle-Mays and Cobb-Speaker).
But still, it shows the biggest diff is 23 runs a year for the ability to play shortstop instead of first base. Since CF-to-corner-OF is by consensus a much smaller gap than SS-to-1B, we might expect the answer to be closer to 3 or 4 runs a year than 6 to 8.

Phillybooster #31
on CF vs corners as rated here and by Bill James
And RF where about 15 of the Top 16 will be in (with Dave Parker and Bobby Bonds on the borderline). And the rest of Top 20 (Murcer, Singleton, Dawson, Reggie Smith) squarely on the fence.

Verily, it jumps off my page that Murcer, Dawson and Smith were longtime CFs. Indeed, they played 48%, 44%, and 48% of career OF games in center. (contemporaries Murphy 56%, Wynn 65%; olden Duffy 40%)

A statistical question related to that observation and to Phillybooster's issue:
For players with long careers, how frequent is principal position CF compared to principal position LF or RF?

A maybe-useful case:
By mistake, Bill James ranked Fielder Jones with the RFs. It may be illuminating to estimate his would-be ranking of Jones among the CFs.

I know that this will not affect the balloting for this year, but while looking through the eligibles thread, I noticed that Pedro Cepeda is eligible this year. I do not know if he deserves his own thread, but if anyone has any information on him please share.

Bill James ranks Fielder Jones RF #41 in NBJHBA.

For the Top 100 players at each fielding position, ranked #1 to 100, NBJHBA provides four WS statistics along with the rankings. By reference to those stats for CFs (NBJHBA p781), and for Jones listed with the RFs (p844), it seems clear that Jones belongs higher than CF #35 and #39, his Clyde Milan and Ginger Beaumont; lower than CF #20, Hugh Duffy.

The near-contemporary CFs ranked between #20 and #35 are 23 Max Carey, 26 Jimmy Ryan, 28 George Van Haltren, 29 Roy Thomas, 30 Cy Seymour.

For the purpose of making the general point and inspiring a closer look, I am satisfied to daresay that Fielder Jones "290; 32,29,27; 135; 26.27" ranks #41 among the RFs and about #30 among the CFs.

New retrosheet updates. Including boxscores for 1911!

Since Luis Tiant Sr. is currently eligible, I figured I'd drop in some information on him.

LUIS TIANT SR.

Rankings on career leaderboards

WINS: t-55th with 46 wins

LOSSES: t-47th with 44 losses

DECISIONS: 52nd with 90 decisions

WINNING PCT: .511
(minimum 50 decisions): 78th
(minimum 25 decisions): 119th
(minimum 10 decisions): 178th

ADJ PCT OF TEAM DEC: .201
(minimum 50 decisions): 46th
(minimum 25 decisions): 64th
(minimum 10 decisions): 93rd

WAT: 37th with 6.2

WAT PER DECISION: .069
(minimum 50 decisions): 35th
(minimum 25 decisions): 53rd
(minimum 10 decisions): 83rd

USAGE ANALYSIS

Tiant was
first on his team in decisions 3 times
second 5 times
third 1 time
fourth 1 time
fifth 1 time
sixth 1 time (0-1 in 1943).

So he was used predominantly as a front-of-the-rotation starter in the US.

OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS

OPP+: 80 (422.6 adj team decsions vs 529.5 league-average team decisions)

hOPP+: 75 (422.6 adj team decisions vs 561 historically average team decisions)


YEARLY WINS AND LOSSES LEADERBOARD PLACEMENTS

1930: t-1st in NNL and NgLs in losses with 14.

1931: t-4th in NNL in losses with 6, tied for 4th in NgLs.

1935: t-6th in EWL with 7 wins.

1945: t-5th in NNL with 5 wins.

1947: t-3rd in NNL with 10 wins, t-4th in NgLs.

NOTES: Tiant's record may be somewhat obscured by two things:
1) His teams played very few games relative to both his contemporaries and his historical peers (see OPP+s above)
2) He did not register a decision in the US during the 1933, 1934, 1937, 1938, 1940-1942 seasons. I don't have my copy of Riley handy, so I assume he was playing outside the US. In addition, he had only 1 stateside decision in 1943, suggesting he may have played outside the US much of the year. In addition, IIRC, he played in the Latin American leagues for a while after his NgL career ended (I could be wrong about that).

Right this second, I think he's probably got a better case than Chet Brewer, but I would like to know more about his play outside of the US before making a decision about him.

According to Riley, Tiant retired in 1948, so there's no post-NeL Latin career to consider.

2) He did not register a decision in the US during the 1933, 1934, 1937, 1938, 1940-1942 seasons. I don't have my copy of Riley handy, so I assume he was playing outside the US.

According to Riley,
Tiant, Luis
30 31 32 Cuban Stars (West)
33
34 Cuban House of David
35 36 New York Cubans
37 38
39 40 New York Cubans
41 42
43 New York Cubans
44
45 46 47 New York Cubans

1935 & 1947, East-West all-star.
1935, loser World Series deciding game 7.
1947 10-0, starter two World Series games.
best known for his pickoff move and screwball

Here is some information on Tiant from The Pride of Havana: A History of Cuban Baseball by Roberto González Echevarría, p. 261:

“Luis Tiant, a lefthander…, was rescued from oblivion by the success of his son, who became a major-league star. Tiant was a slender man who could throw hard when needed but who depended on guile, an assortment of pitches, and uncanny control. In Cuba his career spanned 1926-27 to 1947-48, playing for all the teams but Santa Clara. His best years came with Habana. Tiant was a pitcher who lost more than he won in Cuba but who had tremendous success against visiting major-league teams, and in championship games. In the Negro Leagues he played with the Cuban Stars and later the New York Cubans. Ironically, his best season was in 1947, when he was 10 and 0 in regular-season play and then excelled against the Cleveland Buckeyes in the Negro World Series. Tiant defeated the Cardinals and the Yankees in exhibition games in Havana. The most anticipated part of Tiant’s routine was his unbelievably deceptive move to first base. He was fond, for example, of walking lightning-fast Cool Papa Bell on purpose, just to put on a show trying to keep him from stealing. The most famous anecdote in this regard is that once Tiant threw to first in such an unexpected way that the batter swung and the umpire called it a strike. The umpire is supposed to have said that if he were stupid enough to swing, then he deserved having a strike called against him. Older Cubans like to say that the older Tiant was the better of the two.”

González also mentions that Tiant pitched in Mexico, which probably would help fill in several of the missing years that Dr. Chaleeko has identified. (I don't have access to Mexican League statistics.)

Here are his Cuban League pitching statistics drawn from Jorge S. Figueredo, Cuban Baseball: A Statistical History, along with a comparison to his teams.

Year   Team           W  L Tm W* Tm L* Tm Pct Pennant WAT % tm dec
26-27  Cuba           1  1     9    13   .409         0.2       9%
27-28  Did not play        
28-29  Cienfuegos     1  0    15    26   .366         0.7       2%
29-30  Did not play        
30f    Santa Clara    0  0     0     1   .000         0.0       0%
30f(S) Cienfuegos     0  1     2     7   .222        -0.3      11%
31-32  Regla          7  6    15    15   .500         0.9      43%
32-33  Did not play        
33-34  No season held       
34-35  Did not play        
35-36  Habana         8 10    18    29   .383         1.8      38%
36-37  Habana         6 12    29    37   .439        -2.6      27%
37-38  Almendares     2  1    35    23   .603         0.2       5%
38-39  Habana         0  1    29    25   .537        -0.5       2%
39-40  Habana         6  9    24    27   .471        -1.5      29%
40-41  Habana         6  7    31    18   .633      * -3.0      27%
41-42  Cienfuegos     0  2    18    26   .409        -0.9       5%
42-43  Did not play        
43-44  Marianao       1  3    13    35   .271        -0.1       8%
44-45  Marianao       0  4    19    15   .559        -2.5      12%
45-46  Cienfuegos     4  3    37    23   .617      * -0.4      12%
46-47  Cienfuegos     0  0    25    41   .379         0.0       0%
47-48(PF) Cuba        0  0    46    45   .505         0.0       0%
Total                42 60                           -8.1 
         
* Excludes games won/lost by forfeit: 1928-29 (12-L), 1937-38 (5-W). 
1930f(S) - Special season (Unico) held after regular season ended 
   early due to contract dispute.       
1947-48(PF) - Players Federation--alternative league organized by
   players’ union.         

Notes:
31-32 Led league in games (19), losses (6), innings (92.3), strikeouts (54). Gave up only 10 BB.
35-36 Led league in losses (10).
36-37 Led league in losses (12).
39-40 Tied for league lead in losses (9).
40-41 Pitched exhibition game against St. Louis Cardinals and lost, 5-3. Tied for league lead in losses (7).
41-42 Pitched exhibition game against Brooklyn Dodgers and lost, 3-0.
43-44 Losing pitcher in 20 inning game (longest ever in Cuban League). After blanking Cienfuegos for 14 innings, gave up winning run on a SS error.
44-45 Led league in games (29). His ERA was 2.97, scored 44 SO and 21 BB in 69.7 Inn.
Among all-time Cuban League leaders:
- Tied for 4th in years pitching (17)
- 9th in games pitched (228)
- Tied for 8th in losses (60)

Tiant’s Cuban League record doesn’t help his HoM case. He had a long career pitching for mostly poor teams, and his performance seldom rose above that of his teams.

Two caveats – his State-side peak in the early 1930s coincided with a very rough period for the Cuban League, and he missed three Cuban seasons during that period. He likely pitched elsewhere during those winters. Also, after 1940-41 he apparently was used mostly in relief, so the information I've shown on wins above team will not be particularly illuminating. However, data for ERA are not available for most seasons and saves are never available.

Luis Tiant's Mexican League record:

Yr-W-L--ERA--G--IP---H--BB-SO-HB-WP
41-2-5-5.05-16-82.0-107-45-30--0--0
48-4-4-5.55-18-58.3-066-25-22--0--0

The league didn't keep track of games started in 1941, but he did have three complete games. In 1948, all 18 appearances were in relief.

Also, his 1928 record with the Havana Red Sox on the east coast:

W-0
L-2
TRA-13.09
G-2
GS-2
CG-1
IP-11
H-20
HR-2
BB-2
SO-2
HB-0
OOAVE-.408 (20-49)

On Bankhead and Hughes:
I could do a full regression analysis, and Bankhead's totals might be improved by the inclusion of his Mexican seasons and Holway's data for 1943-45, which is considerably more impressive than the Macmillan data for those seasons, but nothing in their batting records suggests that either of these players are serious candidates.

If someone could post their Mexican league data, I would include it in the calculations. With data on their walks in Mexico, I could carry the analysis far enough to get OPS+ numbers for them, to make sure I'm not selling their offensive production short.

Sammy Bankhead (played for Monterrey both seasons; listed as SS):
Yr---G--AB---H--D--T-HR---R-RBI-BB-SO-HB-SH-SB-AVE-OBA-SLG
40-093-384-122-19-11--8--80--74-43-29--1--1-32-318-388-487
41-101-405-142-21-12--8--74--85-59-26--0--1-19-351-433-521

Sammy Hughes (played for Torreon)
Yr--G--AB---H--D-T-HR--R-RBI-BB-SO-SB-AVE-OBA-SLG
41-82-340-110-23-6--3-67--34-38-30-14-324-392-453
(Hit by pitch and sac hits aren't listed for players who played only one season.)