BBTF's Hall of Merit Discussion :: 1953 Results: WWII Vets Dickey and Greenberg are Welcomed into the Hall of Merit!

Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, June 13, 2005

1953 Results: WWII Vets Dickey and Greenberg are Welcomed into the Hall of Merit!

In his second year of eligibility, legendary backstop Bill Dickey claimed a robust 91% of the possible votes to become the first man elected this “year.”

In his first year of eligibility, Tiger slugger Hank Greenberg earned 89% of the possible votes to also win induction into the HoM.

Long-time Negro League shortstop Willie Wells had a fine showing in his first year of eligibility and will certainly be a HoMer in a year or two.

Rounding out the top ten were: Mules Suttles, John Beckwith, Billy Herman*, Red Ruffing*, Stan Hack*, Earl Averill and Eppa Rixey.

* newbies

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1    3  Bill Dickey             1076   49  18 19 10     1              1               
 2  n/e  Hank Greenberg          1048   49  21 13  5  5  2        2  1                  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3  n/e  Willie Wells             841   48   6  5 16  6  3  3  1  2  2  1  1     1     1
 4    4  Mule Suttles             638   44   2  2  6  4  7  5  2  1  2  5     2  2  3  1
 5    5  John Beckwith            557   40      5     6  7  2  4     1  4  2  3     3  3
 6  n/e  Billy Herman             422   33         2  5  3  3  3  2  4  3  1  1  1  2  3
 7  n/e  Red Ruffing              332   27         1  3  2  3  2  5  2  1     1  3  1  3
 8  n/e  Stan Hack                315   28            1  1  4  3  3  1  1  3  4  4  2  1
 9    6  Earl Averill             262   24            3     1  2  1  2  3  2  2  5  2  1
10    7  Eppa Rixey               260   24            3     1  3  4  1  2        1  4  5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11    8  Wes Ferrell              256   22         2  1     1  2  2  4  1  3  2  1  1  2
12   10  Hughie Jennings          246   18      1  2  1  3  2  1  2  1  1  1        1  2
13    9  Biz Mackey               225   23            1     1  3  3  2           2  6  5
14   12  Clark Griffith           211   19               3  3        1  3  2  2  1  3  1
15   14  George Van Haltren       202   17                  3  3     5  2  1  1     2   
16   11  Cool Papa Bell           196   17            1  2     2  2  2  1     3  3  1   
17   15T Jake Beckley             194   16   1     1     2     1     2  3  2  1     2  1
18   13  George Sisler            187   16      1     1  1  3     2        1  2     2  3
19   19  Mickey Welch             161   11      2     3        2     1     1     1     1
20   15T Joe Sewell               159   14         1     1     2  2  1  2        3  1  1
21   17  Hugh Duffy               138   12               1  2  1     2     3  1  1  1   
22   20  Pete Browning            132   10            2  1  1  2  1           2  1      
23   18  Cannonball Dick Redding  129   12         1     1     1     1  1  2  2  1     2
24   21  Edd Roush                107   11               1              2  3  1  3     1
25   24  Cupid Childs             107   10                  1  1  1  2  1     1  1  1  1
26   26  Tommy Leach              104   10                  1  1     1  1  2  1  2  1   
27   23  Burleigh Grimes          104    9                  2  1  1     1  2  1     1   
28   27  Wally Schang              98    8      1        1           2     2     1  1   
29   25  Gavy Cravath              97    7   1        1     1     2              1  1   
30   28  Charley Jones             95    7         1     1     2  1  1           1      
31   29  José Méndez               94    8                  1  2     1  1  2     1      
32   22  Rube Waddell              85    9                        1  1     3  2        2
33  n/e  Ernie Lombardi            80    6         1        2           2  1            
34T  30T Roger Bresnahan           65    6               1        1     1  1  1        1
34T  35T Dobie Moore               65    6            1           1     1  1     1     1
36   34  Dizzy Dean                62    6                        2  1        1  1  1   
37   30T Larry Doyle               61    6                  1     1     1     1     1  1
38   33  Bob Johnson               53    5               1        1        1     1     1
39   35T Dick Lundy                45    4               1        1        1           1
40   32  Bill Monroe               40    4                  1           1        1     1
41   39  Chuck Klein               40    3                  1  1        1               
42T  37  Tommy Bridges             39    4                        1        2           1
42T  38  Sam Rice                  39    4                           1        3         
44   40  Ben Taylor                28    3                           1        1     1   
45T  41  John McGraw               24    3                                    1  1  1   
45T  44T Jimmy Ryan                24    3                                 1     1     1
47T  52T Wally Berger              19    2                                 1  1         
47T  44T George J. Burns           19    2                                 1  1         
49   47T Vic Willis                17    2                                    1  1      
50   43  Buzz Arlett               17    1            1                                 
51   47T Spotswood Poles           16    2                                    1     1   
52T  46  Ed Cicotte                16    1               1                              
52T  42  Pie Traynor               16    1               1                              
54   50  Tommy Bond                14    1                     1                        
55   52T Dolf Luque                13    1                        1                     
56   58  Fielder Jones             11    1                              1               
57T  52T Lefty Gomez                9    1                                    1         
57T  56  Sam Leever                 9    1                                    1         
59   49  Carl Mays                  8    1                                       1      
60T n/e  Bill Byrd                  7    1                                          1   
60T n/e  Addie Joss                 7    1                                          1   
62  n/e  Mel Harder                 6    1                                             1
Dropped Out: Donie Bush(55), Frank Chance(59T), 
Rabbit Maranville(57), Tony Mullane(59T), Buddy Myer(59T),
Lon Warneke(59T), Hack Wilson(51).

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 13, 2005 at 06:33 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 14, 2005 at 12:32 AM (#1402227)

Congratulations to both candidates!

2. Michael Bass Posted: June 14, 2005 at 12:37 AM (#1402240)

I had #s 1 and 2...and in that order! Damn consensus score always sneaks up on me. ;)

More seriously, looks like unless there is a serious case of SNT syndrome, 5 guys from this class are getting in over the long (or maybe short) haul.

3. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 14, 2005 at 12:38 AM (#1402247)

John, either there's a problem with your intro or with the totals - the intro has Greenberg first, the totals have Dickey.

4. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 14, 2005 at 12:43 AM (#1402265)

Devin:

The totals are right, but the intro wasn't. Thanks for picking it up.

5. OCF Posted: June 14, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1402270)

It's the totals that are right - Dickey is first, Greenberg second. I've reconciled my totals with John's and am in agreement.

6. OCF Posted: June 14, 2005 at 12:49 AM (#1402282)

Average consensus score 8.1. Highest possible 22.

Top 5:

Ron Wargo 18
Tiboreau 17
Devin McCullen 16
Andrew M 16
Carl G 16
(with 5 more at 15: dan b, TomH, Chris Cobb, Rob Wood, jschmeagol)

Bottom 5:

PhillyBooster -2
yest -5
Gadfly -6
Daryn -8
karlmagnus -14

Michael Bass was at +6, slightly below average.

7. Howie Menckel Posted: June 14, 2005 at 01:26 AM (#1402362)

Hmm, I usually make the consensus leaders, but I liked the new guys a lot less than most.....

All-time vote points totals leaders, through 1953, top 25 overall and top 25 active (extras in parentheses)

Beckley still several years away from catching Duffy... Griffith passes Thompson for 6th... Welch next year becomes 10,000 pt man No 13... Beckwith could pass Grant next year as the all-time Negro League pts leader.

JENNINGS 14543
VAN HALTREN 14325.5
DUFFY 13917.5
BECKLEY 13660
Pike 13399
GRIFFITH 12460
Thompson 12349
BROWNING 11986.5
Bennett 11503
WADDELL 10868

Caruthers 10704
RYAN 10507.5
WELCH 9917
CHILDS 9788
H Stovey 9576
Start 8378.5
McGinnity 8232
Pearce 8073
McVey 7985.5
Grant 7969.5

BECKWITH 7402
BRESNAHAN 6982
T LEACH 6673
Galvin 6585
Sheckard 6377

(Rixey 6061, C Jones 5737, Sisler 5732, Suttles 5584, Monroe 4950, Sewell 4720, Williamson 4217, Doyle 4003, Roush 3888, Mendez 3448, Ferrell 3398, Redding 3364)

8. David C. Jones Posted: June 14, 2005 at 01:27 AM (#1402366)

Well, I'm a bit disappointed that Wells didn't get in, but I thought it was pretty close between the three candidates, so no complaints.

9. OCF Posted: June 14, 2005 at 04:47 AM (#1402748)

As it is, Wells appeared on 48 out of 49 ballots, and the majority of his votes were 3rd or better. If we were to simply re-do the 1953 election with Dickey and Greenberg declared ineligible, Wells would probably get about 25 1st place votes, plus 5-10 2nd place votes. All of our precendents say that a candidate getting that kind of support will be elected; in the case of Wells, probably in 1954.

You're calling for a consideration of Wells versus Vaughan. This brings up all sorts of issues: peak versus career, of course; well-docomented versus seen through the lens through which we have to look at the Negro Leagues. The question of which one is better falls within the range of reasonable uncertainty. For my own sake, I'll go with the peak and put Vaughan ahead of Wells, but it doesn't really have to be either/or; our Hall is big enough for both of them.

10. PhillyBooster Posted: June 14, 2005 at 01:31 PM (#1403094)

Wow. I was the only non-Wells voters? Who knew?

I'm usually over-voting the Negro League candidates, but I guess in this case my over-voting of NeLers was outweighed by my under-voting of middle infielders. I had Wells at #19 -- comparable to where I had Averill. Is there a reason to think that Wells was significantly better?

Also, I was one of the few votes for Lombardi.

Those two, alone, were probably enough to get me onto the low-Sim list. I don't think I'd ever been on one or the other before.

11. SWW Posted: June 14, 2005 at 01:36 PM (#1403107)

If I'm not mistaken, this makes Hank Greenberg the fourth candidate -- joining Amos Rusie, Pete Hill, and Bill Terry -- to be elected in his first year of eligibility, yet finish second to a returning candidate.

Not particularly useful, I suppose. But interesting.

12. sunnyday2 Posted: June 14, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1403407)

Here is a tally of 16-20 votes. They are significant only in that as we get into the backlog in (guessing) 1956, 1958 (elect 3), 1960-61 and beyond, these guys might be moving onto some ballots.

I have 23 complete lists of 16-20. I also have 4 approximate lists (voters who just listed 5-6-7 "close" or "next" but not in order), and 5 partials (newbies or requireds identified as ranking 16-20 but not a complete list).

I rated them 10-9-8-7-6 on the belief that the names only matter if and when they get into the top 15.

So with all of these caveats:

1. Mackey 8 ballots-68 points
2. Bell 8-67
3. Herman 7-59
4. Ferrell 7-55
5. Hack 6-50
6. B. Johnson 6-48
7. Rixey 6-47
8. Duffy 5-45
9. Averill 6-43.5
10. Ruffing 5-41

11. Childs 5-38
12. Roush 4-31.5
13. Waddell 4-30
14tie. Bresnahan, Gomez, Mendez 4-29
17. Browning 4-28
18. Griffith 4-27
19. Moore 3-27
20. Jennings 4-26

21. Beckley 4-25
22tie. Beckwith, Van Haltren 3-25
24. Traynor 3-24
25. Monroe 3-22

Here is how these might possibly alter the standings (top 25 only):

Hack overtakes Ruffing
Ferrell overtakes Rixey and Averill, and Rixey overtakes Averill
Mackey overtakes Jennings
Bell overtakes Van Haltren and Griffith
Duffy overtakes Sewell
Childs overtakes Roush

Obviously players have to be pretty tightly bunched for these votes to make a difference, but make a difference they do. By my calculations, we will elect backloggers as follows:

1954--Wells
1956--Suttles
1958 (elect 3)--Beckwith, Herman
1960--Hack and Ruffing
1961--Ferrell (if my theory holds up, Averill is the current leader)

13. andrew siegel Posted: June 14, 2005 at 05:35 PM (#1403696)

FYI, I think we decided long ago to make 1958 an elect 2 year, along with some year in the 1960's that was slated to be an elect 1 year. I don't think we are electing 3 until the early 1970s.

14. sunnyday2 Posted: June 14, 2005 at 05:58 PM (#1403776)

The Number of Electees per Year page still shows 3 in '58. After that it shows us electing 3 again in '72 and '80 and most years thereafter.

The elect 1 year is 1961.

Given that it is 1958 vs. 1961 (i.e. the alternatives are close together in time), I think we will elect the "same" player either way, though it will be hard to tell because we will be into the Averill-Rixey-Ferrell cluster where it is too close to call right now.

But I could easily see us elect one of the three and never quite get back to the others ever again. Of course, it is also true that Herman, Hack and/or Ruffing could just be shiny new toys who will drop fast enough to clear a second spot for Averill-Rixey-Ferrell in '58 or '60.

But from the results above, I think it is fair to say that the backlog is in tiers. Wells, Suttles and Beckwith look like sure things. The rest, with the possible exception of Herman but including all the way down to Mackey--8 players in all--are competing for 4 spots for the foreseeable future.

15. karlmagnus Posted: June 14, 2005 at 06:26 PM (#1403887)

I think if anybody does the calculation, they will find a systematic dropoff after about year 6-8 in anyone who's not very close to election-- people get bored with them. This is of course irrational, but it will ceratinly affect Sunnyday's calculations, as Griffith/Beckley/Van Haltren, for example, have already suffered this effect and most of those above them (except Jennings) haven't.

This is in fact my first year with the lowest consensus score, but it won't be the last. I had both Dickey and Greenberg on my ballot, but not at 1-2, Wells on it but low and Suttles, Herman, Ruffing, Averill and Hack weren't on it at all. While I expect the electorate to converge on my negative view of these 5 guys over the next decade (with the probable exception of Suttles) there will then be a new bunch of newbies for me to sneer at and others to admire. My consensus only improves when we get DEEP into the backlog, and my faves are the only plausible guys left :-))

RUFFING IS A RATFINK, LEEVER IS A CHAMP!

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Monday, June 13, 2005

1953 Results: WWII Vets Dickey and Greenberg are Welcomed into the Hall of Merit!

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