Happy Independence Day!

So, how about them Dodgers?

Buck Leonard solid mid-ballot candidate, Ray Brown appears about a pitching Wells; may move up or down as new info becomes available. Walker too short a career and unimpressive OPS+ for outfielder when you discount the war years somewhat; Galan same problem but more so, Heath even shorter career though OPS+ better, but again off bottom with war discount.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

7. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

8. (N/A-10-9) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, even if some of it was during the war years. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

9. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

10. Buck Leonard 2255 hits at an OPS+ of 145 fits him about here.

11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A) Ray Brown. I’ve called him a pitching Wells, so here he goes. May move above Leonard if further info is positive, or below Beckwith if not.

13. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

14. (N/A-13-14-14-13-13-13-14-15-14) John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson. Also, Chris Cobb’s equivalents are looking more solid to me. Definitely better than Suttles, but had a short career.

15. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Just off the ballot until an extra slot opens up.

17. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA.575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

18. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.

19. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

20. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
21.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
22. (N/A) Mule Suttles. About halfway between Reggie Jackson and Dave Kingman -- out rather than in, I feel, but still close to the boundary.
23. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
24. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
25. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
27. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
28. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
29. (N/A) Heinie Manush
30. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
31. Earl Averill. Fairly well off my ballot, and I think the team are giving him too much minor league credit. In the real world, 2019 hits at an OPS+ of 133 doesn’t get him close to the HOM. Not as good as Tiernan.
32. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell
33. Wes Ferrell
34. (N/A) Dick Lundy
35. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
36. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
37. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
38. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
39. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.

40. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792

41. Cool Papa Bell. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
42. Billy Herman. 112 OPS+ not very distinguished, but 2345 hits is an OK length career and he about breaks even on war credit. TB+BB/PA .448, TB+BB/Outs .677, pretty undistinguished for a mainly 1930s player.
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire.
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Jack Quinn
47. Tony Mullane
48. Pye Traynor
49. Jim McCormick
50. Dick Redding
51. Joe Judge
52. Edd Roush
53. Spotswood Poles.
54. Larry Doyle
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Harry Hooper.
58. Jules Thomas.
59. Wilbur Cooper
60. Bruce Petway.
61. Jack Clements
62. Bill Monroe
63. Jose Mendez
64. Herb Pennock
65. Chief Bender
66. Ed Konetchy
67. Jesse Tannehill
68. Bobby Veach
69. Lave Cross
70. Tommy Leach.
71. Tom York
Hack shortish career and rate stats inflated by the war, off bottom of consideration set.

This being January, Dodgers ain't won anything yet -- all hail the great Durocher, who should win several more titles with those Giants -- they'll need to move to California to boost attendance, though. Dodgers look an old team to me, very like the 1915 As or, picking a year at random, like the 2005 Yankees will be! Not a chance :-))

1955 Ballot

1. Ray Brown (n/e). His record shows him to be a great pitcher. I have him above Lyons and equal with Hubbell. His peak was not quite as high as The Meal Ticket’s, but an additional 500 innings as a league-average pitcher makes up the difference. On peak he is significantly better than Lyons, in a career of similar bulk. He is a surprisingly easy #1 this year.
2. Buck Leonard (n/e). Quite similar to John Beckwith, but slightly better, mostly because he sustained a high level of play slightly longer and had better plate discipline. Beckwith was somewhat more valuable with the glove, but the fact that Leonard has a universally top-notch reputation as a defensive first-baseman closes the gap somewhat.
3. John Beckwith (3). Just shy of Leonard. Looks like he’ll be elected at last in 1956 or 1957!
4. Clark Griffith (4). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Also the best pitching post-1893 candidate according to Pennants Added. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
5. Hughie Jennings (6). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well. jimd’s recent comments on Jennings’ fielding value seem right to me.
6. Eppa Rixey (7). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the early 1960s. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
7. Mule Suttles (8). Still needs revised win shares, but further examination of MLEs moves him past Ferrell in my rankings. Looks like he’ll be elected in 1956 or 1957.
8. Wes Ferrell (9). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM.
9. George Van Haltren (10). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet. Van Haltren was in an “elect-me” spot on my 1931 and 1932 ballots. I’ve lowered my view of outfielders in general since then, which caused Jennings to pass him, but everyone from Van Haltren up clearly merits eventual enshrinement, in my view.
10. Edd Roush (11). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
11. Tommy Leach (12) Slipping out of view again; as the ballot thins, his accomplishments will again become hard to ignore.
12.Billy Herman (13). A player about whom I knew nothing when this project began, but he was a very fine player. A lot like Willie Wells, actually, as he combined good offense and good defense in a long career, but he was a bit behind Wells in both peak and length.
13. Stan Hack. (14) The best major-league third baseman between Heinie Groh and Eddie Mathews. Great plate discipline, acceptable defense.
14. Red Ruffing. (15) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. That’s just enough to get him on this years’s ballot. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
15. Biz Mackey (16). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer, but not good enough to leap ahead of the backlog. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot: a larger number than usual this year because 6(!) new candidates have reached the ballot.

Earl Averill. See #19 below
Joe Medwick. See #29 below

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot: not a larger number than usual this year: 6 new players reached the ballot in 1953, not 1955!

Earl Averill. See #19 below
Joe Medwick. See #29 below

Off-Ballot

16. George Sisler (17). Nice peak.
17. Larry Doyle (18). Best of an over-looked teens group of middle-tier stars.
18. Burleigh Grimes (19). Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 12 ballot spots.
19. Earl Averill (20). Has touched bottom and is now rising again, like those around him. I give him one season of PCL credit, which puts him clearly ahead of Medwick.
20. Jose Mendez. (21) The player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
21. Dick Redding . (22) Still paired with Mendez.
22. Buzz Arlett. (23) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
23. Bill Byrd (24). Stongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe, better than Mays but not quite as good as Grimes, although his peak was better. I’ve placed him halfway between the two. Like Grimes and Mays, Byrd was a good hitter and often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak. More study of the NeL pitchers is needed, though without team and league data our estimates for these players must remain much more speculative than I would like.
24. Gavvy Cravath. (25) Revised minor league MLEs move him from out of the running to in the running, though still off ballot. My 15-25 range is now full of 1910s stars who are just a little bit short by current standards, but who may go in later.
25. Cool Papa Bell (26). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville.
26. Rabbit Maranville. (27) His defensive value and his career length deserve more respect. Wish I could get him onto my ballot.
27. Mel Harder. (28). The historic link between Wes Ferrrell and Bob Feller. Harder was better than I thought. He has decent career length (over 3400 innings) and a very nice peak in the mid-1930s. Very similar to Carl Mays, but slightly better, although not nearly so well-rounded a player.
28. Spotswood Poles . (29) Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
29. Joe Medwick. (n/e). Overrated in his first election. I may be underrating him a bit in reaction, but I am being cautious with all the borderline 1930s outfielders (see Averill above for the other 1930s outfielder I’m less keen on than the electorate as a whole). Strong peak, but it was short and overrated a bit in win shares, and the rest of his career was not all that distinguished.
30. Carl Mays . (30) Wes Ferrell lite.
31. Urban Shocker. (31) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
32. Mickey Welch. (32) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
33. Hugh Duffy. (33) Another guy who I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now below 30. Youch!
34. Rube Waddell
35. Jimmy Ryan
36. Roger Bresnahan
37. Wally Schang
38. Cupid Childs
39. Bucky Walters (n/e). A strong peak, but not a whole lot of value outside of it. Benefited greatly, as my analysis sees it, from the great fielding support that the Reds provided. I might be underrating him and I look forward to more discussion, but this is where he lands for now.
40. George Scales
41. Dobie Moore
42. Ben Taylor
43. Jake Beckley
44. Joe Sewell
45. Dick Lundy
46. Waite Hoyt
47. Herman Long
48. Wilbur Cooper
49. Lave Cross
50. Kiki Cuyler
51. Harry Hooper
52. Bobby Veach
53. Fielder Jones
54. Dolf Luque
55. John McGraw
56. Tommy Bond
57. Bob Johnson
58. George J. Burns
59. Charley Jones
60. Bruce Petway
61. Bill Monroe
62. Dizzy Dean
63. Babe Adams
64. Mike Tiernan
65. Sam Rice
66. Dave Bancroft
67. Frank Chance
68. Tony Mullane
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Addie Joss
71. Wally Berger

Dixie Walker joins the all-time rankings somewhat below the Berger line and so off of the posted list. He’s in the vicinity of Tony Lazzeri, Sam Leever, Hack Wilson, Tom Daly, and Tip O’Neill. All very fine players, but not HoMers.

Karlmagnus, there is some buzz surrounding Brooklyn-born Sanford Koufax, but I predict he'll turn out to be another Rex Barney!

Just to get under the skin of km and John, here is a warm and fuzzy ballot with both Bell and Mackey on it.

1. Buck Leonard – I don’t see it as particularly close – 145 OPS+ for 15 years. More clearly the best hitter on the ballot than Brown is the best pitcher.

2. Ray Brown – comfortably ahead of Rixey and Ruffing, barely ahead of Welch. I’m not sure I like him that much better than Redding, but this is a bow to the obvious consensus on that particular issue. I think I have always overrated Redding a little.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

5. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.

6. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

7. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes.

8. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have in at 29).

10. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

11. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here, ahead of Suttles and Beckwith. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

12. Mule Suttles – I’m getting more sold on Suttles and less sold on Beckwith. Suttles’ MLE WS are tough to overlook even if you apply a modest discount.

13. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut.

14. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

15. Beckwith –The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 315 career WS, which is pretty much how I see him. I’m keeping him on the ballot at the expense of Waddell to show that I support his impending election. It is all pretty tight between 5 and 25 these days anyway.

16. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

17. Billy Herman – close to Sewell, the all-star games are impressive. This is the beginning of my defensive infield positions glut – Herman, Sewell, Leach, Hack, Traynor and Monroe are all pretty close to me.

18. Stan Hack – either just better or just worse than Traynor. I’m starting him here.

21. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Ferrell, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

26. Wes Ferrell

29. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

30. Dizzy Dean

35. Earl Averill

36. Buzz Arlett – can 350+ WS be a correct translation? Like GVH, he pitched some too.

38. Edd Roush – little difference between Averill, Buzz, GVH, Poles, Roush, Ryan and Duffy, except the era and the contexts. Could rethink any of these guys upwards, but still probably won’t make the ballot until the 60s at the earliest.

41. Gavvy Cravath – GVH to Cravath is essentially a dead heat on my ballot.

46. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great. Peak alone is insufficient for me.

Daryn, if everyone voted like you, my #1/2, Beckley and Welch, would have been in the HOM years or even decades ago. No complaints :-))

Just to get under the skin of km and John, here is a warm and fuzzy ballot with both Bell and Mackey on it.

Since I defended career voters for selecting Bell and/or Mackey, I'm confused as to why you would think I would be upset, Daryn.

there is some buzz surrounding Brooklyn-born Sanford Koufax

Not to be outdone, the Giants signed a couple of teenage phenoms in 1955. Orlando Cepeda and Willie McCovey. It will be fun watching them climb the Giant farm system.

John,

Not to clutter the ballot thread, I was just referring to you not having them on your ballot, despite your recognition that career voters might like them.

I didn't actually think you or km would be upset, it was just something to say that struck me since I read your comments over on the election thread just before I submitted this ballot.

1955 Ballot:

Happy Fourth of July! This year two new outstanding candidates keep the backlog at bay. If I could, this time I’d vote for 30 candidates.

1. Buck Leonard –
I see this year’s top three all as quite close and as ranking among the top 100 players in baseball history. Any of them could have been my number one. (PHoM)

2. Ray Brown –
It’s interesting how Gibson and Leonard seem to have captured all the acclaim associated with the great Homestead Grays teams, even though it’s now clear to us that Brown was also a crucial contributor. I’ve been reading Brad Snyder’s Beyond the Shadow of the Senators, and he provides extensive biographical information on Leonard and Gibson, but Brown appears in his story only as a bit player. By bringing to light the accomplishments of non-HoF stars such as Brown, Wilson, Suttles, and Beckwith, I think this project is making a real contribution to baseball history. (PHoM)

3. Wes Ferrell –
Underappreciated. In his prime he was more valuable than Hubbell or Lyons. (PHoM 1944)

4. Mule Suttles –
How many home runs might he have hit in the majors? My best guess is 535, which would have placed him second on the career list when he retired. (PHoM 1949)

5. John Beckwith –
A better hitter overall than Suttles, but if I were a manager I would have preferred Suttles.

6. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL. Counting 1928, 10 seasons with 24+ WS.

7. Dizzy Dean –
I see Dean’s HoM case as just as strong as Jennings’—not sure why Jennings garners so much more support. See my case for Dean in # 26 on the Dizzy Dean thread.

8. Hughie Jennings –
In the 1986 BJHBA, James presented two top-100 lists, one for peak value, the other for career value. It’s always seemed to me that the HoM should include the top players on my peak list regardless of how they place on my career list. Jennings would rank about # 30 on my all-time peak list, so I see him as fully qualified for the HoM. (PHoM 1933)

9. Bucky Walters –
The successor to Hubbell and Dean as the top pitcher in the NL. The 1930s had a ton of pitching talent—much more than the 20s.

10. José de la Caridad Méndez –
See my case for Méndez in # 65 on the José Méndez thread. (PHoM 1938)

11. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

12. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones. (PHoM 1940)

13. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings.

14. Red Ruffing –
Awful in one-run games. But he was 7-2, 2.63 in the World Series.

15. Biz Mackey –
Outstanding defensive catcher who was also a good hitter during his prime.

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Roger Bresnahan
17. Cool Papa Bell
18. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)

19. Billy Herman –
Just misses my ballot – he’ll eventually make it.

20. Stan Hack –
Another outstanding player who just misses my ballot.

21. Clark Griffith
22. Mel Harder
23. Buzz Arlett
24. Dobie Moore
25. Gavy Cravath
26. Hilton Smith
27. George Burns
28. Urban Shocker

29. Alejandro Oms –
I’m placing him here until we can finish analyzing him. Could go higher.

30. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals -

This year’s class includes three other players of interest – Augie Galan, Schoolboy Rowe, and Dixie Walker. (I’m not sure why John singled out just one of them.) All three showed signs of possible HoM-level talent, though each of their careers was derailed by injuries (which in Walker’s case, were compounded by managerial misjudgment). Walker and Galan barely make it into my 85-player consideration set at # 82 and 83; Rowe just misses.

1955

1. Ray Brown (new, PHoM 1955). Clearly the best pitcher available and perhaps the second best NeL pitcher yet after Smokey Joe Williams.

2. Hughie Jennings (3 last year-3-6, PHoM 1927). Best available ML position player peak.

3. Dobie Moore (4-4-4, PHoM 1942). The black Jennings. Hit as well as Buck Leonard, or maybe a little better, and played SS.

4. Buck Leonard (new, PHoM 1955). I was prepared for Leonard and Josh Gibson to be the #1-2 NeL hitters ever. Leonard may indeed be #2 but he is not in Gibson's class. His cluster includes Suttles, Moore, Beckwith, Stearns, Torriente et al. He may be the best of the lot, but still that is his cluster, not Gibson.

5. Mule Suttles (7-5-5). Move up at Medwick and Sisler's expense.

6. Joe Medwick (2-new, PHoM 1954).
7. George Sisler (5-6-7, PHoM 1938). Drop behind Suttles after re-eval of "hitters."

8. Tommy Bond (6-7-8, PHoM 1929).
9. Rube Waddell (9-9-9, PHoM 1932).
10. Jose Mendez (10-11-12). Three great peak-prime pitchers.

11. John Beckwith (13-12-15). Moves up.

12. Billy Herman (11-10-new). Great defense.

13. Charley Jones (x-x-x, PHom 1936). Last made my ballot in 1945, the year Edd Roush first appeared.

14. Edd Roush (12-13-10). Best of CF glut, but barely.

15. Larry Doyle (x-15-13). Back on, displaces Ed Williams

1955

1. Ray Brown (new, PHoM 1955). Clearly the best pitcher available and perhaps the second best NeL pitcher yet after Smokey Joe Williams.

2. Hughie Jennings (3 last year-3-6, PHoM 1927). Best available ML position player peak.

3. Dobie Moore (4-4-4, PHoM 1942). The black Jennings. Hit as well as Buck Leonard, or maybe a little better, and played SS.

4. Buck Leonard (new, PHoM 1955). I was prepared for Leonard and Josh Gibson to be the #1-2 NeL hitters ever. Leonard may indeed be #2 but he is not in Gibson's class. His cluster includes Suttles, Moore, Beckwith, Stearns, Torriente et al. He may be the best of the lot, but still that is his cluster, not Gibson.

5. Mule Suttles (7-5-5). Move up at Medwick and Sisler's expense.

6. Joe Medwick (2-new, PHoM 1954).
7. George Sisler (5-6-7, PHoM 1938). Drop behind Suttles after re-eval of "hitters."

8. Tommy Bond (6-7-8, PHoM 1929).
9. Rube Waddell (9-9-9, PHoM 1932).
10. Jose Mendez (10-11-12). Three great peak-prime pitchers.

11. John Beckwith (13-12-15). Moves up.

12. Billy Herman (11-10-new). Great defense.

13. Charley Jones (x-x-x, PHom 1936). Last made my ballot in 1945, the year Edd Roush first appeared.

14. Edd Roush (12-13-10). Best of CF glut, but barely.

15. Larry Doyle (x-15-13). Back on, displaces Ed Williamson and Chuck Klein.

Drops off: Klein (14) and Williamson (15).

Close: 16-20. Klein, Joss, Cravath, Dean, Williamson
21-25. Browning, Ruffing, Rixey, Mc Cormick, Sewell
26-30. Duffy, Bell, Monrie, Hack, Averill
31-35. Cicotte, Griffith, Traynor, H. Wilson, H. Smith
36-40. Bresnahan, Gomez, Childs, Wi. Cooper, Mackey

BTW, I was just looking at Bill James' NeL ratings and was shocked to find the following among the top 100 players of all-time.

25. Turkey Stearnes
43. Mule Suttles
65. Buck Leonard
76. Cool Papa Bell

So we were perhaps the first to discover that Papa Bell was perhaps not the player he was cracked up to be, but we were not the first to express some skepticism about Buck Leonard (if rating a player #65 can be called skepticism). But anyway...

I think the initial juxtaposition of Suttles and Stearnes has tainted out take on Suttles, particularly in light of the fact that Stearnes himself does not have nearly the rep. that, say, Leonard or Bell has, among others. Now that Leonard comes along, he's the SNT, while Suttles is just good 'ol Mule, not as good as Turkey, a solid mid-ballot candidate.

But I think clearly he is Leonard's equal within the margin of error. I've already voted, of course, and have Leonard 4 and Suttles 5, so I'm not necessarily saying we should elect Suttles ahead of Leonard. But I am saying that probably no player as good as Suttles has ever waited this long for election.

I find slotting the down ballot candidates very difficult and will likely have many revisions in the weeks to come. Since this is an ongoing process, I will not delay this week's vote.

(1) Buck Leonard (new)--I find him difficult to rank. Two comparisons: Versus 1B: He is arguably the third best 1B of All-Time, but the gap between 3rd and 18th or so is tightly packed. I'll rank him based on the assumption that he is Don Mattingly with a somewhat longer career and 40 more walks per season, but his image is hazy around the edges and the edges count on a tightly packed ballot. Versus this year's top contender: Pretty similar to Beckwith with the bat, and would normally trail him slightly based on position, but edges him when Beckwith's troubles are taken into account.

(2) John Beckwith (2nd)--The more NeL conversions we do, the better he looks.

(3) Ray Brown (new)-- Certainly an HoMer. Only debate is whether he is a Hubbell or a Lyons. Right now I'm splitting the difference (that makes him who? Eddie Plank?).

(4) Mule Suttles (4th)--Unless we have vastly underrated his power (possible) or his plate discipline (unlikely), he was (with one year's exception) not as good a player as Leonard, though his career was much longer.

(5) Hughie Jennings (5th)-- 1890s peak candidate extraordinaire.

(6) George Van Haltren (6th)--1890s career candidate extraordinaire.

(7) Dobie Moore (10th)-- For different reasons, Averill, Duffy, and Medwick lose a little ground. Moore benefits.

(8) Wes Ferrell (11th)-- So does Ferrell.

(9) Earl Averill (7th)-- Seems worthy on peak, prime, and career (once you give PCL credit). However, in a deep OF field, he is close enough to the line that you begin where to wonder where he'd rank if the excluded players had been let in.

(10) Red Ruffing (15th)-- I overreacted last week. He's got a lot of quality bulk, and his rate stats need to be adjusted for his hitting.

(11) Hugh Duffy (8th)-- Like Medwick benefits a bit too much in WS from Pythagorean overachievement; unlike Medwick, those overachieving teams were historically great.

(12) Cupid Childs (12th)-- A smidge ahead of the Herman-Sewell-Hack gang, largely b/c/ of the difficulty of the conditions he played under.

(13) Eppa Rixey (14th)--On pitching alone, ranks ahead of Ruffing, but trails him badly with the bat.

(14) Billy Herman (15th)--It will be a heck of a job sorting out all the good 2B, SS, and 3B. Right now, I like him ever so slightly more than Sewell and Hack.

(15) Joe Medwick (10th)-- Minor adjustment for SNT syndrome and b/c/ his big year seems s slight WS fluke. Still think he should be inducted eventually.

Next five: Sewell (up a bit), Mackey, Jones, Roush, Hack.

PS. Required disclosure: Ferrell is around #45-50.

1955 Ballot

1. Ray Brown. Brown is very clearly the best pitcher available right now. I have enough small questions about Leonard's MLEs that I'm very comfortable listing the unheralded Brown ahead of the rep-tastic Buck. (PS: I wish we had the completeness of Brown's record for a fellow like Andy Cooper.)

2. Buck Leonard. Edgar Martinez with a glove is a very compelling argument for Leonard's induction. I am concerned that the MLEs for Leonard may overstate his walk rate if they are based on his Mexican League walk rates. This is also true of MLEs for Wells, Bell, and anyone else for whose careers Mexico is the only available source for walks. As I mentioned in the MLE thread, we need to be careful that we don't overcredit these guys in the BB column.

3. Mule Suttles. Virtually indistinguishable from Leonard in terms of MLE value. Sort of like an Edgar versus a Belle or something along those lines. The difference maker for me is the glove, and anyway the much-deserving Suttles will be enshrined in the next two years, so no tears yet.

4. John Beckwith. Remains my top infield candidate, non-NB division. Actually Beckwith probably would be an NB if we knew more about his statistical record than can be gleaned from our current sources.

5. Hugh Duffy. I'm not dead yet!

5a. Martin Dihigo. pHOM ETA of 1956.

6. Joe Medwick. He does deserve some of the credit for his teams overachievement, doesn't he?

7. Jose Mendez. Someone today comped him to Ed Walsh. That works well for me. Now add on that Mendez could hit his way out of a batting cage and you’ve got a very solid candidate who is in line (on my ballot) for impending induction (and is already in my pHOM).

8. Gavy Cravath: Right behind Medwick.

9. Geo. Van Haltren: I've always felt like there should be a NYC bridge called the Van Haltren. Naturally if there was, it was be constantly backing up as more and more off-ramps and after-bridge exits are added.

10. Bucky Walters: In this week's episode of Everyone Loves Wes, guest star Bucky Walters says: "Holy Crap, no one loves me!"

11. Wes Ferrell.

12. Geo. Burns: Speaking of bridges in NYC, I like putting Geo. because it reminds me to always take the T-Z or the Ham Fish when I'm driving from Philly to Portsmouth, or vise verse. Reminds me in that the GWB is often abbreviated as Geo Wash Br or Geo Washington Br, and just below the Geo is usually a whole mess of people foolishly thinking one of the decks will be traffic free. And anyway, shouldn't the GWB span the Delaware instead of the Hudson?

13. Spot Poles: In need of more reconsideration from this electorate by gum!

14. Stan Hack: Hacktastic!

14a. Ted Lyons: No discernable ETA for his pHOMing at this point. Which means Bill Terry and Red Faber might want to go out and get a few hundred blocks of briarwood and a sharp knife so they can start whittling away the time until they make it....

15. Bill Byrd: If he somehow switched roles with Hilton Smith, do you think he'd be called "Satchel Paige's Legs?"

HEY, NEW GUY!!!!
Dixie Walker: Ixnay on the Ixixieday.

Augie Galan: Not enough of anything to get on the board.

Jeff Heath: Before there was the Reggie Bar, was there a Heath Bar?

TOP TENS
Billy Herman: I think I saw his bike in the basement of the Alamo.

Red Ruffing: “Find the tallest tree in the forest and chop it down with this Red Ruffing!”

Hughie Jennings: I don’t say Ee-oow to Ee-yah, but nor do I say Yee-ha. He’s in the off-ballot ether right below Herman and Ruffing. Actually if we had a twenty-man ballot I’d have at least a shot at making the top five consensus scores because these three would be on it in close to the right order and placement relative to the consensus. But as it stands, I remain dutifully in the middle ground, neither the Patron Saint of Lost Causes, nor again a Consenshevik.

I've been out of town for the past week and I have a lot to catch up on, so the ballot is a little thin this week (not that I am the most verbose, anyway)

PHoM matches the top 2.

1. Ray Brown (new)
2. Buck Leonard (new)
3. Red Ruffing (3,4,x)
4. Mule Suttles (4,3,3)
5. Stan Hack (5,11,x)
6. Mickey Welch (8,7,8)
7. John Beckwith (7,9,6)
8. George Van Haltren (6,6,5)
9. Joe Medwick (x,x,x)
10. Eppa Rixey (10,8,4)
11. Jake Beckley (9,10,7)
12. Biz Mackey (14,13,9)
13. Cool Papa Bell (13,12,10)
14. Billy Herman (11,x,x)
15. Tommy Leach (12,14,11)

16-20. Moore, Sisler, Duffy, Rice, Roush
21-25. Averill, Powell, Griffith, Mullane, Ryan
26-20. Streeter, H. Smith, White, Jennings, McCormick

1-Buck Leonard-An all-time great.
2-Ray Brown-Around 320-330 estimated WS. Looks like an HoMer to me.
3-Billy Herman-Fantastic from 32-40. Good during the war, but I took a little credit away for 43-45.
4-John Beckwith-Suttles was a better hitter, but I think Beckwith had more value.
5-Mule Suttles-See Beckwith. Best NegL power hitter not named Gibson
6-Red Ruffing-Nice long(but not spectacularily high) peak with the Yanks, plus 1 strong year with the Sox. More Career value than Rixey, even giving Rixey wartime credit. I'm willing to say he's the best pitcher on the ballot right now.
7-Earl Averill-With PCL credit, you can add career value to an already nice peak.
8-Eppa Rixey-Great Long Career; long enough that his near total lack of peak doesn't kill him.
9-Jake Beckley-He's not inner-circle, but definitely 'in' when the back-log-clearing years come around.
10-Dick Redding-One of the great Negro League pitchers
11-Stan Hack-Pretty slick fielder and a good hitter. I took a little away for his 43-45 numbers or he would be higher.
12-Gavvy Cravath-Giving him credit back to '07 gives him pretty solid career numbers to go with the peak.
13-Hughie Jennings-5 phenomenal years. Its enough, I think, but he'll need to wait.
14-Clark Griffith-Long career, solid peak.
15-George Sisler-The peak is hard to ignore.

Top 10s not on my ballot(both are close):

16-Wes Ferrell-He's not Grove, Hubbell, Ruffing, or Lyons, but he's 5th this period. I upped him in 29-31 for pitching against much tougher offenses than Grove did.

21-Joe Medwick-Strong corner OF. Phenomenal in '37

2-Ray Brown
...
6-Red Ruffing-... I'm willing to say he's the best pitcher on the ballot right now.

I take it there should be a qualifying word or two, like perhaps "major league," in that last sentence.

1.Mule Suttles
2.Buck Leonard

Leonard and Suttles are close, as several voters have already indicated. According to Chris’ MLE’s, Suttles was a better hitter in his prime, and had a higher peak; Leonard was a better hitter over the course of career and had a sterling reputation with his glove. It’s a tough call, and I actually had Leonard at #1 when I began this ballot. Upon reflection, I’ll take the first baseman with the bigger years over the guy who could field.

3.John Beckwith
4.Earl Averill
5.Ray Brown

Last year I was Averill’s best friend. Compare him with John Beckwith: Chris/David’s MLE’s put Beckwith at 137 OPS+ in about 8000 PA’s; Earl Averill has a 133 OPS+ in 7200 PA’s. However, Averill also had a couple of great seasons in the PCL at ages 25 and 26, which would bring them pretty close to even. Averill was an outstanding centerfielder, who saved a lot of runs; Beckwith played SS/3B, but does not have a sterling reputation with the glove. Beckwith projects to somewhere between 315-350 WS; Averill is at 280, but moves into the Beckwith range if you give him some PCL credit. Chris has said that he may have underprojected Beckwith, and I’ll give him the edge with his peak. Still, if you have Beckwith high on your ballot, you might want to reconsider Averill.

Ray Brown seems closer to Ted Lyons than Carl Hubbell to me, but he is still a very worthy HoM’r.

6.Jake Beckley
7.Eppa Rixey

Beckley does not have much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher. Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

8.Wally Schang
9.Clark Griffith
10.Jose Mendez

I took a long, hard look at Biz Mackey, but ended up putting Schang on the ballot. Obviously Mackey has the defensive edge, and is projected for considerably more games at catcher. But Mackey is projected for three seasons with an OPS+of 121 or higher, while Schang had nine; the next highest OPS+ for both catchers was 111. Chris’ projections would have to be way off for Mackey to equal Schang as a hitter. And Mackey’s defense would not have been as valuable in the major leagues, because there was far less basestealing than the NeL. I’m forced to conclude that Schang was better, although not by a lot.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

11.Cool Papa Bell
12.Tommy Leach
13. Rube Waddell
14.Biz Mackey
15.Billy Herman

The long-career-and-great-defense-who-could-hit-some guys, with a short career fireballer thrown in for good measure. Well, Herman is more of a very-good defense guy, but he still racked up a lot of Win Shares. Bell’s career WS projects to nearly 400; Leach actually has more career WS than any major league position player on the ballot save Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Mackey, with position adjustments, fits very comfortably into this group.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

I’m a little surprised that Hack did not make my ballot, but WS is not crazy about his defense, and, like everyone, I had to adjust his WWII numbers downward. Given the choice, I’d rather have Ned Williamson.

16.Ned Williamson
17.Stan Hack
18.Hugh Jennings Jennings has made the bottom of my ballot before, and will be there again; his short career keeps him off of a tough ballot.

19.Cupid Childs
20.Edd Roush
21.Larry Doyle
22.Dick Redding
23.George Van Haltren
24.George Sisler
25.Red Ruffing I think Rixey is better: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?

26.Wes Ferrell I am generally a career guy, particularly with pitchers. As sabermetricians debate how much of a pitcher’s effectiveness is due to defense and luck, I give more credence to guys who could get outs over a long number of innings.

27.Ernie Lombardi
28.Addie Joss
29.Joe Medwick
30.Gavvy Cravath

Medwick, Sam Thompson, Mike Tiernan, Chuck Klein, Pete Browning have very similar arguments for the Hall: a) they were very good hitters with b) high peaks c) moderate length careers and d) limited defensive value which e) gives them somewhere around 300 career WS, allowing for schedule adjustments. Bob Johnson and George Sisler could fit in here as well; Buzz Arlett’s projections seems to land him in this group; Gavvy Cravath might have been this type of player, although he’s a strange case, and difficult for me to rate. Anyway, with the exception of Thompson, we seem to have taken a collective, albeit hotly debated, pass on the group. Medwick has a little more defensive value than the rest, and a higher (though perhaps overrated) peak. While I can see how that moves him to the top of the glut, from a career perspective I can’t see putting him anywhere near my ballot. There’s just too many guys like him.

Quick follow-up to my Medwick comment:

As I said earlier, I am generally a career voter and a (sort of) Win Shares voter. If you are a peak voter, or a WARP voter, then I know the group I put Medwick in looks a lot different.

1955 ballot, which is our 58th

It took a half-century, but my ballot of also-rans is stabilizing. Which means that this one-time Consensus-meister General may continue to be off that chart for a while longer.

1. RAY BROWN - A review of the MLEs and other analysis suggests a Robin Roberts/Ted Lyons type, and I like the type. Not sure voters should have him No. 1 and Rixey off-ballot, but I suspect some will.
2. MULE SUTTLES - Maintains an 'elect me' spot for this voter. I do significantly discount for his extremely favorable parks; not as convinced on the 'pitcher's park' data; I don't particularly discount for his defense; but I do factor in the likelihood of his OBP not being dazzling. That's 3 discounts out of 4 options, basically, yet I still see him as No. 2 on this ballot.

3. BUCK LEONARD - Needs a pretty good fielding bonus, IMO, to beat out Suttles. I just can't give that much for a Negro League 1B, sorry. But he's HOMer, and better peak than Rixey, so he gets the bronze.
4. EPPA RIXEY - If only he had one huge year. One of the best lefites ever. I want him in the HOM, but he's never been quite good enough over these years to overcome the tide of newcomers. But let's not lose sight of him, especially with backlog years just ahead.
5. JOHN BECKWITH - As I now more heavily factor in a SS-3B bonus, I am finally convinced he does belong. Too bad that conclusion came in a tough voting era, but he'll get in fairly soon..
6. CLARK GRIFFITH - Flopped with Rixey, slipped below Beckwith in 1953. 1890s still are underrepresented, though further analysis on that in the '55 ballot discussion has been interesting. It's remarkable how much better Griffith's W-L was than the teams he pitched for.
7. GEORGE SISLER - Slides under Beckwith, and now I wonder if he'll ever get in. I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. JOE MEDWICK - Keeps his spot right in the middle for a second year, appropriate in that he could go either direction on my ballot. Has the monster year, the big 3, even a 'big 9 or 10.' Fell off a little too soon, and OF competition is tough, which makes him problematic.
9. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? Not his fault that the ABCs clogged his position earlier in his career. I wish fewer voters were so enamored with peak at the exclusion of this unusual career.
10. COOL PAPA BELL - Maintains his slot from '53. We're wise to realize the results don't match the rep, but great fielder-long career-decent hitter is quite valuable. Another Max Carey?
11. MICKEY WELCH - Also maintains slot from '53. If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the old Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
12. PETE BROWNING - Ditto. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time. Have newer voters taken a sufficient look at him? I wonder.
13. RED RUFFING - Definitely not as good as Rixey, in my mind. But gotta love his overcoming losing four toes on his left foot in a mine accident as a kid. Seemed to have something left when he was drafted for 1943, so a little war credit cinches a ballot spot.
14. CUPID CHILDS - Struggling to stay on my ballot against fierce competition. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on these ballots. But I'm starting to wonder if I'm just still voting for him out of habit.
15. HUGHIE JENNINGS - Bounces back onto the ballot after a few-year absence. Would be greatest four-year hitter not to be a HOMer by a lot.


TOP 10s OFF BALLOTS/CLOSE CONSIDERATION
STAN HACK - Thought sure I'd vote for him, but less even than meets the eye when you take away for diluted war year performance while others are getting war credit.
BILLY HERMAN - Hmm, not as impressed as I thought I'd be. Loses, barely, to Childs head-to-head in the first go-round. I have to study him further in future years; he'll be around a while.
WES FERRELL - 117 ERA+ not dazzling, but it's misleading with the late-career bad IP. Significant hitting bonus, too. Kind of a weird player, too bad he didn't play some OF on his off-days.
CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - Former vote for him; once Brown gets in, he and Mendez may get one more look for a final Negro League pitcher alongside Paige (and anyone else?)
ERNIE LOMBARDI - Great hitter, but it bothers me that he had a hard time getting to 100 games played. A good forerunner of the problem we'll have with 1-inning closers. You aren't helping when you aren't playing.
DICK LUNDY - Falls back off the ballot, but I'm one voter who could swayed back.
BILL MONROE - Spent years battling Grant for 'one slot' in the HOM, which may have been unfair to both. Are the new wave of ballot-enders really more worthy than Monroe?
JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting.
EARL AVERILL - I think you need a 'major' amount of 'minors' credit and quite the fielding bonus to get him to the top 10. We'll see 30 guys like this before we're done, and none of 'em belong in the HOM. Is it 'Ah-verill,' or "AY-verill,' by the way?
EDD ROUSH - I have a problem with the games he missed in a lot of years, but his D and high level of play combined with career length gives Roush strong consideration. Waiting for a weak year.
BIZ MACKEY - I see more Freehan or R Ferrell than anything else so far, and not sure he contributed as much as the countless other Negro League candidates we're mulling. Not ruled out yet.

1955 ballot.
1. Walter "Buck" Leonard (new) Not a Gehrig/Foxx, candidate, not different in category from all of the others on this ballot, but just a little more - a little more career, a little more OBP, for a bat-first candidate, a little more glove.
2. Ray Brown (new) Not that far ahead of the likes of Ruffing, but as in the case for Leonard, just a little more.
3. John Beckwith (4, 3, 4, 4, 3) Starting a run of infielders who could really hit.
4. Stan Hack (---, 5, 4) Depending on what you consider Beckwith to be, the second or third best-hitting 3B of the last 60+ years. OBP matters. Offense-only, he's below Sisler for peak but ahead career in my system.
5. Larry Doyle (5, 4, 5, 6, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
6. Ducky Wucky Medwick (----, 6) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
7. Red Ruffing (---, 7, 7) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
8. Joe Sewell (6, 5, 6, 8, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. I've been his best friend; even lowering him a little, I'm probably still tied for his best friend. He nearly got elected once, and there's still a lot there.
9. George Van Haltren (7, 6, 7, 9, 9) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
10. Eppa Rixey (8, 7, 8, 10, 10) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
11. Wes Ferrell (9, 8, 9, 11, 11) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
12. George "Mule" Suttles (10, 9, 10, 12, 12) Was he Willie Stargell? Willie McCovey (only shorter)? Or someone else entirely?
13. Earl Averill (11, 10, 11, 13, 13) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
14. Jake Beckley (12, 11, 12, 14, 14) Not much peak, long career.
15. Biz Mackey (13, 12, 13, 15, 15) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
16. Hugh Duffy (15, 13, 14, 16, 16)
17. Billy Herman (---, 17, 17) Offensively about the equal of Lazzeri, B+ defense; that's a very good player, but I don't see more than that.
18. Bucky Walters (----, 18) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
19. Cupid Childs (16, 14, 15, 18, 19) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Tommy Bridges (17, 15, 16, 19, 20) RA+ PythPat 190-124, which is a record that has to be taken seriously. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
21. Cool Papa Bell (18, 16, 17, 20, 21) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
22. Edd Roush (19, 17, 18, 21, 22) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey. He'll make it back to my ballot.
23. Jose Mendez (24, 23, 24, 22, 23) Pending further review; could move up.
24. Dick Redding (26, 25, 26, 23, 24) Ditto.
25. George Sisler (20, 18, 19, 24, 25) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Bob Johnson (-, 18, 20, 25, 26) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
27. Pie Traynor (21, 20, 21, 26, 27) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy. But nowhere near Hack as a hitter.
28. Frank Chance (22, 21, 22, 27, 28) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
29. Rube Waddell (23, 22, 23, 28, 29) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
30. Roger Bresnahan (25, 24, 25, 29, 30) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.

Augie Galan: I like guys with leadoff skills, so I've got to like him. After discounting him for the war years, I see him as pretty close to George Burns. Problem is, I don't have a good reason to put him ahead of Burns and Burns isn't in my top 30.

Dixie Walker: It's sort of a Jose Cruz, Sr. career - hardly got a chance in his 20's, peaked in his 30's. But the peak was in the war years and has to be discounted. Similar in overall offensive value to Burns and Galan, but a little different in shape. Was Galan the best defender of the bunch?

Jeff Heath: another flank outfielder who could hit, for a while. Better than Chick Hafey; career offensive value in the same range as Bobby Veach. 100+ years of history has produced a lot of guys like this.

Schoolboy Rowe: Raw (except for the war adjustment) RA+ equivalent record of 137-109. He could hit, too, so I should put him through the offensive adjustment machine, but there's no way to get enough out of that to make him a candidate.

John:

How much of a nightmare would it be to cancel my ballot at post #11? I've tested a bunch of formulae for converting Negro League MLEs to WS and made some revisions for closer "fits".

It mostly affects Brown (drops to 4th, which won't end up mattering, given his support), Mendez (who drops off) and Ferrell (who pops on).

The posted ballot does not make me tremendously uncomfortable, so if replacing it with an new one would make you tremendously uncomfortable, I'll leave it as is. :)

That's what I get for voting early.

1955 ballot
will this be my lowest consensus score ever?
Herman and Hack make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Stan Hack what’s the hall’s problem with cubs third baseman (make my personal HoM this year)
8. Billy Herman most putouts 7 times (make my personal HoM this year)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg.
20. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Moose Suttles with I had some antidotal information on him especially quotes
22. Hilton Smith see his thread
23.Buck Leonard I thought the stats for him would be much better
25. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
26. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
27. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
28. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
29. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
30. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
31. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
32. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
33. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
34. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
35. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
John Beckwith I’m not enough confident enough in his case to put him higher then he is
Ray Brown I see him as part of a Negro League pitching glut filled with the likes of B. Foster, Day Redding, and Mendez
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is just off my ballot
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot

Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

Yes, 3 NeLers at the top. No, I don’t have a problem with that. First time that happended for me, and very likely the last. The NeL pipeline will dry up shortly.

Also, 5 of top 9 are pitchers. The HoM is a little light on the % of hurlers honored IMHO.

1-Ray Brown {new}
By consensus of many and the ##s researched here, clearly one of the top 6 NeL pitchers. This toy doesn’t need to be extra shiny or new to be rightfully honored.
2-Mule Suttles (3) [3]
His MLEs look very good, his career was long, and his rep among those who have previously written much about NeLers was great as well.
3-Buck Leonard {new}
The melanic (I just learned that word; go ahead, look it up) Jason Giambi, with a longer career.
4-Billy Herman (4) [5]
Well-rounded stud. War credit gets him above Sewell.
5-Clark Griffith (5) [14]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats.
6-Stan Hack (6) [8]
A real shame that Pie Traynor is way more famous than the Hackster.
7-Wes Ferrell (7) [9]
Career ERA of 4.04, but compares well to the league/park average ERA of 4.72. Then add in the huge bat. Ruffing with more peak but less career.
8-Red Ruffing (8) [7]
Eppa Rixey plus a smidge of career length plus better peak plus he hit great, too.
9-Bucky Walters (9) [26]
Hidden greatness? Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too. Take your time, guys, but don’t worry, you’ll warm to him eventually :)
10-Joe Sewell (10) [21]
What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too.
11-John Beckwith (11) [4]
He looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew. But: if I were a GM and had to draft one guy at a young age to play his career (I hope) on my team, I would be a bit wary.
12-George Van Haltren (12) [18]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
13-Cool Papa Bell (13) [17]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Willie Mays, Bell comes out as a HoMer, even with a mediocre bat. And that’s what his rep makes him out to be.
14-Biz Mackey (14) [13]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here, above Roger B, with whom he looks comparable if you end Mackey’s career in 1932. Too many people thought Mackey was too good to leave him off my ballot.
15-John McGraw (15) [38]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician. How DARE I be one of the most ‘consensus’ voters last ballot with Mugsy on my ballot!

Required Disclosures:
Joe Medwick … career is a lot like Indian Bob, who finished 41st!
Hughie Jennings ….peak only

Others in my top 35:
Earl Averill ……A bit of credit for his PCL yrs. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch. #16 this week!
Eppa Rixey ……..115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in front of a fairly good defensive team in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep; could he have played shortstop?
Cupid Childs …fine hitting second sacker, and playing IF in the 1890s was tough.
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Roger Bresnahan ...Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Bill Monroe …reasonable argument as best NeL 2Bman.
George Sisler ...Equal of Chance and Beckley, although they sure are different!
Jake Beckley ...Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM, though.
Frank Chance ...More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Lots and lots of positive intangibles
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs and KOs, but many UER and not in the top 5 of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.

'2-Ray Brown
...
6-Red Ruffing-... I'm willing to say he's the best pitcher on the ballot right now.

I take it there should be a qualifying word or two, like perhaps "major league," in that last sentence. '

Thats what I get for cutting and pasting my comments from last year's ballot in which he was my top-rated pitcher.

John:

How much of a nightmare would it be to cancel my ballot at post #11? I've tested a bunch of formulae for converting Negro League MLEs to WS and made some revisions for closer "fits".

Not a problem at all, Jeff. I'll delete your previous ballot, so you can post your new ballot anytime you're ready.

yest, is that Babe Herman and Hack Wilson joining your PHoM this year? Oh, and is that MULE Suttles at #21 or is Moose a different player?

it's Billy Herman and Stan Hack

It's Mule Suttles I made that mistake the first year he was the ballot and subquntly corected it but coping and pasting from my first ballot brought it back.

1 (-)Buck Leonard--Seems the hype is justified.

2 (3)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

3 (4)Billy Herman--Similar career and peak to Dickey, according to WARP.

4 (5)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

5 (7)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the best pure (white) pitcher available.

6 (6)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

7 (9)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

8 (8)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 8th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

9 (10)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

10 (11)Stan Hack--This one surprised me. I can't say I knew much about him, but I don't see any reason to keep him off the ballot, especially coming from such a historically weak position. The numbers show him as Heinie Groh-lite.

11 (-)Ray Brown--My suspicion as we've gotten into this project has been that NegLeg pitchers weren't quite at the same level as the hitters. I'm sure that Brown was one of the top 4-5 NL pitchers of all time, I'm just not sure that makes you a 1st ballot shoo-in.

12 (12)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

13 (-)Joe Sewell
14 (-)John Beckwith--Due to defensive concerns, I'd have a hard time putting him above Sewell. However, a reconsideration of him means he'll probably be on the ballot for awhile.

15 (-)Mule Suttles--I don't see him ranking higher than Beckwith. I promise to investigate him further in the future.

Dropping out: George Sisler, Burleigh Grimes, Eddie Cicotte.

Top 10 omission: Hughie Jennings is in the 15-20 range. I love the peak, but it won't be long before his career is simply too weak to measure up.

1955 ballot
will this be my lowest consensus score ever?

Way back, it might be, it could be ...

Definitely a chance there. Last year, karlmagnus nearly caught you in the end, but it looks like you've opened up an insurmountable lead this year. After all, karl at least has Leonard and Brown on his ballot.

To yest's credit, his pHoM will be filling up with NeLers soon -- good old Moose Suttles, Hilton Smith and Buck Leonard are 5, 6 and 7 on his personal ballot this year.

Why to yest's credit? It should surely be entirely neutral, other than if there were an obvious bias against NELers. Yest deserves credit for many things, particularly for originality, but not for this, I think.

Mostly a Win Share kind of guy, with bonus for peak. Think WARP is iffy at best, but hey it will change again soon, then maybe Edd Roush will get into the HOM.

1)BUCK LEONARD – One thing I liked about “Beyond the Shadow of the Senators” was the fact that profiled Leonard but didn’t deify him. I think that the Negro League player supports often hurt their arguments by over selling what they could do, saying they would have 5,000 hits and hit 75 homers a season. I read that kind of garbage and then I assume the rest of the points are garbage too.
2)STAN HACK – The best 3b between Baker and Mathews. Some give credit for being the best at a position for a time period, and if so Hack should get their attention.
3)EDD ROUSH –
4)JOE MEDWICK – Roush and Medwick are close, I’m slotting the centerfielder ahead of the leftfielder.
5)MULE SUTTLES – Thumping 1b, doesn’t seem to get the full support from the Negro League experts in our group that I would have guessed.
6)BILLY HERMAN – His weaker peak leaves him behind Hack and Roush.
7)COOL PAPA BELL – I can’t shake his reputation, despite what his MLEs have shown.
8)TOMMY LEACH – Long career and solid peak.
9)RAY BROWN – The work done in his thread by the HOM voters is impressive. I am going to place him here, top pitcher on the ballot and behind Bell based on his reputation. I am not adverse to moving him up, but want to mull his spot longer, if he doesn’t get in this year.
10)EARL AVERILL -
11)WALLY BERGER – If we can build consensus on the order the Cfers should be ranked, one of these guys will get in (Roush, Bell, Averill or Berger or Van Haltren or Ryan).
12)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett.
13)CARL MAYS –I think his peak places him ahead of Ruffing and Rixey, even if he trails the pair by 60 to 75 total win shares.
14)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list.
15)HUGHIE JENNINGS - His peak probably puts your team over the hump for the flag, trumps the problems of short career

16-30 Dean, Traynor, Warneke, Ruffing, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Waddell, Schang, Redding, Duffy, Doyle, W. Cooper, Mendez, Moore, Lombardi

Disclosures – Beckwith, #32. Ruffing #20.
New Comers – Dixie Walker – not in top 60.

To yest's credit, his pHoM will be filling up with NeLers soon -- good old Moose Suttles, Hilton Smith and Buck Leonard are 5, 6 and 7 on his personal ballot this year.
actually it’s 6, 9, 10 the other 3 are Bullet Joe Rogan(5) Jud Wilson(7) Martin Dihigo(8)

Moved Schang (#19) and Lombardi (#20) down. Schang never had a dominant year, and Lombardi had a lot of GIDP that I wasn’t fully accounting for, plus he needs a healthy wartime discount.

Dixie Walker #62. Augie Galan, and Jeff Heath are HoVG candidates, well off the ballot.

Waddell, Cravath, Monroe, Bresnahan, Griffith, Joss, Jose Mendez, and Welch are in my PHoM but off my ballot.

1)Buck Leonard--
2)Ray Brown--
3)Beckwith-- A great hitter, he played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. He made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
4)Suttles--
5)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while.
6)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
7)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
8)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
9)Medwick--
10)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
11)Billy Herman-- I’m still perplexed trying to figure out his career relative to the defensive spectrum shift at 2B. He looks good compared to modern 2B, not so great compared to early lively ball 2B. Gets two years war credit, that helps too.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
13)Stan Hack--His time will come, I think. I like him better than Groh, who I voted for.
14)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
15)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.

Ruffing#30, he’s HoVG but I don’t like him as much as the consensus.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Hughie Jennings—impressive peak, not enough career.

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

No nonballot newbies of note. I'll be taking a close look at Matlock in coming weeks, he may well deserve a top 50 slot.

1. Ray Brown (new) - The second best Negro League pitcher in terms of pure pitching value we have seen so far. I think I'd rate him ahead of Rogan as well. It is a travesty that he isn't in the Hall of Fame, one that will be alleviated only slightly by his first ballot induction here.

2. Wes Ferrell (2) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

3. Hughie Jennings (3) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

4. Buck Leonard (new) - This is conservative I admit, but this is my best guess on Buck. His OPS+'s are very good, but his career was not super long and his peak was not super high. Was he so much better than Bob Johnson that he is a first ballot inductee while Bob is largely forgotten? I say no, but then again, I use that to support Johnson's ballotworthiness rather than attack Leonard.

Clearly, I think, better than Suttles, who doesn't have the OPS+ projection Leonard has, and was a miserable defender. Beckwith, on the other hand, one can argue is better, I think, though I choose not to make that argument.

5. Billy Herman (4) - Truly great all around play, both on the field and in HOM profile (peak, prime, career). The little things add up to a decent amount more than Hack.

6. José Méndez (5) - I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player. This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

7. John Beckwith (6) - Liking him more and more, as his offense looks better and better, plus I've upgraded my assessment of his defense some. Don't think he can be below Suttles, at least as good of a hitter, and a much more valuable fielder even if you believe the worst about his defense (and I rate him as about 1/2 3B, 1/2 1B).

8. Dobie Moore (7) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture).

9. Red Ruffing (9) - I love these hitting pitchers if you can't tell. Just not enough peak to rank higher than this. I had him above Moore/Wells earlier, but I can't justify that at all now that I'm actually posting. Still, a good strong Lyons-style candidate in value terms.

10. Earl Averill (10) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

11. Bucky Walters (11) - Impressive peak and prime. Ruffing's career advantage trumps Walters' peak advantage in this case, because of war factors, which add slightly to Ruffing and subtract slightly more from Walters.

12. Dizzy Dean (12) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

13. Joe Sewell (13) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. His offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

14. Clark Griffith (14) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

15. Bob Johnson (15) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

-------------------------

16. Mule Suttles (16) - Think he's a pretty clear 2nd in the Negro League glut atop our backlog. It's not that I don't like him, more than I think he should wait a while. I'd also much rather have had Dobie Moore.

17. Dick Redding (17) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots.

18-20: Sisler, Browning, Mackey
21-25: Medwick, Hack, Shocker, Dunlap, Monroe
26-30: Buffinton, Lundy, Williamson, Bartell, F. Jones
31-35: Waddell, Scales, Taylor, H. Smith, Passeau
36-40: Veach, Bond, Klein, Uhle, Poles
41-45: Byrd, Van Haltren, Harder, Warneke, Berger
46-50: Bell, Schalk, Clift, Mays, Childs

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Suttles - See above: #16.

Medwick - Not as good as Bob Johnson in my view. Peak not as high as you might think, and career is shortish. How can he rank ahead of Sisler, who had a similar career shape, but a much higher peak? #21, nonetheless, he is not a terrible choice. Just not a prime one.

Hack - Defense was below average, kept him from having a great peak. I do like him, #22, just not quite ballot worthy. Some discounting of his 44-45, too.

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

GAH! Sorry for the double post, John, can you delete one of the above?

John - as long as you're altering the space-time continuum of this thread anyway, could you perhaps delete one of #43 or #44?

1955

1. Buck Leonard (-)--Just a bit better than Suttles, it’s a tight top 5 this week.

2. Ray Brown (-)--Best pitcher we’ve seen in a while.

3. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. (1927)

4. Mule Suttles (4)--Trails Browning and Jones on peak, but more career value than either of them. (1949)

5. John Beckwith (5)--Another high peak, non-conventional major league player.

6. Charley Jones (6)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

7. Hughie Jennings (7)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

8. Cupid Childs (8)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

9. Billy Herman (9)--I agree with those who see him as close to Cupid. I’ve got them in a dead-heat, with Cupid having the slightly better peak.

10. Tommy Leach (10)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

11. Clark Griffith (11)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

12. Stan Hack (12)--Another tight group with Hack, Doyle and Sisler.

13. Larry Doyle (13)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

14. George Sisler (14)--That’s a nice peak.

15. Cool Papa Bell (15)--That’s a lot of career value.

16. Eppa Rixey (16)
17. Joe Sewell (17)
18. Ed Williamson (18)
19. Jose Mendez (19)
20. Carl Mays (20)
21. Red Ruffing (21)
22. Wes Ferrell (22)
23. Dave Bancroft (23)
24. Roger Bresnahan (24)
25. Dick Redding (25)

Posted by Lt. Commander Geordi La Forge on July 06, 2005 at 09:27M

John - as long as you're altering the space-time continuum of this thread anyway, could you perhaps delete one of #43 or #44?

OCF, I'll attempt your request for Captain Murphy, but I need to run a Level 5 diagnostic first.

I re-did my PHOM last week. I had some players in my PHOM who were then jumped by other players and my PHOM really didn't reflect my current ballot. In the process of redoing my PHOM, I took a fresh look at the eligible players, and there are a few changes on my ballot.

PHOM changes
IN (Dobie Moore, Jose Mendez, Ted Lyons)
OUT (Cupid Childs, Burleigh Grimes, Vic Willis)

PHOM
Ray Brown
Buck Leonard

1.Ray Brown – You know, it’s players like this that makes me wish Cooperstown would notice this project. Elected PHOM 1955.
2.Buck Leonard – Elected PHOM 1955
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me.
6.Hughie Jennings – Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
7.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
8.Mule Suttles – Moves above Beckwith in reevaluation.
9.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Elected PHOM.in 1940.
10.Stan Hack – Was a fan of his since I first heard of him. Very close to Heinie Groh, even with war discount. Better than Pie Traynor.
11.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
12.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Still in line to be a PHOM.
13.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey.
14.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time.
15.Joe Medwick – Better peak and prime than Johnson.

Required Disclosures
Billy Herman Not too far from Hack and Childs. Just off the ballot
Earl Averill Another one who just misses my ballot.
Red Ruffing Yes, he also just misses the ballot.
Wes Ferrell Ditto

Off the ballot
16-20 Averill, Grimes, Herman, Ruffing, Ferrell
21-25 Monroe, Rixey, Duffy, Roush, Bell
26-30 Sisler, McGraw, Schang, Leach, Dean
31-35 Redding, Bresnahan, Walters, Bond, Poles
36-40 Tiernan, Cooper, Waddell, Cravath, Van Haltren
41-45 Traynor, Sewell, Doyle, Mays, Taylor
46-50 Fournier, Griffith, Burns, Johnson, Cuyler

Apparently I am in the minority but magically disappearing posts screws me up a lot more than double posts.

In renumbers all of the posts below it, making it hard to see where you left off.

No, I'm with you, Rusty. Now that JeffM's ballot is gone, I can't subtract it from my running tally. I guess I'll have to start over. Boo.

Rusty and SWW, aren't you using the ballot counter created by Evan Reich (which can be found at our Yahoo site)? Using the counter, it automatically computed the new tally after I erased Jeff's ballot.

1955 ballot. Our pattern continues of a couple of new eligibles taking spots near the top. Unlike other years we don’t add people to the backlog. Busy time so recycled comments and only minor changes toward the bottom of the ballot.

1. Ray Brown (-). No qualms about putting him here. Around a good long time with solid results.

2. Buck Leonard (-). Real question is where he ranks amongst the likes of Foxx, Greenberg, and Mize.

3. Joe Medwick (3). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

4. Earl Averill (4). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and then three years in the PCL. By comparison to Bob Johnson, Averill had teams which outperformed Pythag W-L by 18 games (1929-39).

5. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. Hang in there big guy; I’ll try and convince others…

6. Clark Griffith (6). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

7. Hughie Jennings (7). A peak to be proud of, especially for a SS. When you can be in the running for best player in the game in a certain time period that gives you a bonus. A rough style of play in during his heyday means careers were shorter.

8. Dick Redding (8). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

9. Wally Berger (9). Another slugger, cut short due to injuries. Right about here the difference between the players to me is getting pretty miniscule.

10. John Beckwith (10). One of the more interesting fellas on the ballot. Hitter with questions about the glove. I’m assuming he found a way to be adequate with the leather.

11. Red Ruffing (14). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

12. Billy Herman (20). On ballot two years ago, off last year. He’s settling somewhere inbetween. Lot to like but then you could say that about the next 30 guys probably.

13. John McGraw (11). Lived on the bases while playing – check out the OBP. The issue is his playing amount is on the light side.

14. Biz Mackey (13). Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost.

15. Pete Browning (15). Even with league discounts he swung some mean lumber. Career OPS+ = 162 which puts him in company with names like Foxx, McGwire, Frank Thomas. Discount it because of AA play? At the OPS+ = 147 level you're talking Heilmann, McCovey, and Schmidt. That's some pretty lofty company. Batting Average Placement within league 1882-1891: 1, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 3, -, 1, 3. Had a career .341 average in a league environment of .257 . Offensive Winning Percentage - .745. His guy was a WOW when hitting.

Hanging down below:

16-20:Hack, Suttles, C.P. Bell, Rixey, Mullane
21-25:Ryan, Roush, Byrd, Chance, Waddell
26-30:Poles, Mendez, Van Haltren, Bridges, Leach
31-35:Childs, Willis, Fielder Jones, Lundy, Sewell
36-40: Dobie Moore, Cicotte, Grimes, Hack Wilson, Duffy
41-45: Veach, Taylor, Ferrell, Roy Thomas, Camilli
46-50: C. Mays, Sisler, Mike Griffin, Cravath, Cuyler

New folks:

Galan and Dixie Walker don’t make the top 50. Nice careers and all that but you’ll need more than that to be a HOMer.

Top 10 Returnees off-ballot:

Ferrell, Suttles, and Hack are my outs. They wanted to join the party but the house is crowded at the moment. Knowing the ups and downs that players go through in my system they’ll continue to be factors. Reasons for being left out: Ferrell – not giving the largest hitting bonus. Suttles – other 1B appear better to me. Hack – too crowded of a ballot?

1955 Ballot – I just got back from vacation. I'm not sure if I can tally this week, but I'll try. My system uses a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, PA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Ray Brown Hey, Cooperstown, look here!.

2. Buck Leonard Perhaps the Lou Gehrig to Suttles’ Jimmie Foxx. All four of those names deserve HOM enshrinement.

3. Mule Suttles Cooperstown?

4. John Beckwith Cooperstown, are you there?

5. Dick Redding I don’t think Cooperstown is listening.

6. Pete Browning No, Cooperstown is not listening at all.

7. Stan Hack I don’t think Cooperstown knows we exist.

8. John McGraw Hey, a real live Hall of Famer!

9. Cupid Childs Cooperstown? Here’s another one you missed.

10. Roger Bresnahan Another Hall of Famer!

11. Wes Ferrell OK, I guess I’m the non-Cooperstown ballot.

12. Dobie Moore I’m not really changing my ratings from last week, I just noticed the lack of respect Cooperstown has for my ballot.

13. Tommy Bridges Coooooooperstown?

14. Rube Waddell Another Hall of Famer! That makes four.

15. Clark Griffith Now five, but the Old Fox might be in only as an executive.


LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Billy Herman – On my ballot last year, now looking a bit below Childs and even Lazzeri among eligible 2B.

Joe Medwick – Surprisingly behind Bob Johnson (who is just off the ballot).

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good.


Hughie Jennings – A lot closer to my ballot, but seems to be the beneficiary of some extraordinary WARP/WS fielding values. I think that McGraw was a better hitter. FWIW, I would elect him over Wallace today among HOM SS, but probably not any of the others. I essentially have him neck-and-neck with Joe Sewell for the next SS slot on my ballot.

Dixie Walker – Not my first Cherce.

1955 ballot:

1. Ray Brown -- great negro league pitcher
2. Buck Leonard -- great negro league first baseman
3. Billy Herman -- underrated great second sacker
4. Jake Beckley -- still convinced that he belongs
5. Mule Suttles -- great negro league slugger
6. Red Ruffing -- better than WS suggests
7. George Van Haltren -- the 1890s star I'm supporting
8. John Beckwith -- probably a great player
9. Earl Averill -- with pcl and wwii credit
10. Tommy Bridges -- upon review I downgraded him
11. Stan Hack -- underrated third baseman
12. Bob Johnson -- very slightly better than Medwick
13. Joe Medwick -- ballot worthy but not much more
14. Eppa Rixey -- steady pitcher for many years
15. Joe Sewell -- underrated shortstop

Group top ten not on my ballot are Wes Ferrell (who I have around 40) and Hughie Jennings (who I have around 50).

The reason the vanishing posts screw me up is not countign the ballots... it is knowing which posts I have read and haven't read. I don't memorize whose comments I have already seen. I make a note of the last post number and when posts vanish, that post number changes.

The reason the vanishing posts screw me up is not countign the ballots... it is knowing which posts I have read and haven't read. I don't memorize whose comments I have already seen. I make a note of the last post number and when posts vanish, that post number changes.

Maybe you should reference the numbers after the time in the header of each post instead of the post number (or does that also change when a ballot is deleted?)

I just note whose post it was. Doesn't always work, but usually it does.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Ray Brown-P (n/e): Another great NeLer forgotten due to the vagaries of time. How many of us had even heard of him before this project? Fortunately, we should be able to correct that injustice shortly. Possibly would have been the best major league pitcher for 1938.

2) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (2): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. Probably would have been the best major league third baseman for 1923 and 1929, as well as the best major league shortstop for 1925, if he had been allowed to play.

3) Buck Leonard-1B (n/e): Not the standout I thought he would be before his MLEs were created, but still a worthy. However, I think Beckwith stood out to a greater degree at his positions, plus played positions that made it tougher to achieve as many WS as Leonard did.

4) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

5) Stan Hack-3B (5): Amazingly, Stan wasn't a hacker! :-)Best major league third baseman for 1935, 1937, 1941, 1942, 1945 and 1946. Best NL third baseman for 1936.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (6): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Billy Herman-2B (7): Probably better than Childs, but I'll leave him here for now. Best NL second baseman for 1932, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938 and 1943.

8) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (8): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

9) George Van Haltren-CF/P (9): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

10) Tommy Bridges-P (10): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

11) Jake Beckley-1B (11): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

12) Wally Schang-C (12): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Mickey Welch-P (14): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (15): I like him better than Suttles, FWIW. I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league right fielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

Suttles, Medwick, Ruffing, Ferrell and Jennings all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

My #1 and #2 were elected for the fourth straight year. Buck Leonard is a shoo-in for 1955. In 1956, the AL keystone combo of Appling and Gordon make their debut. In 1957, Joe DiMaggio is joined by another AL keystone combo, Boudreau and Doerr.

1) Buck Leonard – An easy HoMer, top 100 all-time.

2) Ray Brown – The gap between 1 and 2 is large, but I’m drinking the Brown kool-aid (yuck!) and he heads the pack.

3) Billy Herman (3,4,ne) – High peak, high career. Often underrated. The SABR 20th century survey voted him #183 among 20th century white players, which translates to about #225 when you add in 19th century, Negro league and 21st century stars. James has him about #130 in the new BJHBA. He’s right smack in between those two ratings, I think. An all-star ten times. Three times top 4 NL MVP voting.

4) Clark Griffith (4,5,4) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

5) George Van Haltren (5,6,5) – I’ve been his best friend in recent elections, a position I am not comfortable trying to defend. He lost ground among the backlog, falling back behind Sisler, Beckley and Bell. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Now in his 47th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

6) Tommy Leach (6,7,6) – Still approaching Lost Cause status. Every time I think of dropping him, to get in line with the consensus, I look at the guys below him and go, “nah”. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated. Voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voters are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard

7) Earl Averill (7,8,7) – Ranks above Roush on strength of league and minor league credit, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

8) Eppa Rixey (8,9,8) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

9) Mule Suttles (9,10,9) – Good slugger. Could move up.

10) Edd Roush (10,11,10) – The past three elections have seen him plunge from 17th to 33rd in the balloting, as SNT’s Herman-Medwick-Ruffing-Hack have driven away long-time contenders’ down-ballot support. Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

11) Wes Ferrell (11,12,11) – Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

12) Red Ruffing (12,13,ne) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

13) George Sisler (13,14,12) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

14) Biz Mackey (14,15,13) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available, knocking Bresnahan off after a 28-year run. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

15) Joe Medwick (15,ne,ne) – Everyone needs a shiny new toy. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

John Beckwith – About half the electorate is sold on him. That’s all it takes to be a HoMer in this environment. For me, he’s fifth in my NeL queue.

Stan Hack is being strongly considered for future ballots.

Jennings has been on my ballot before and will be again.

1955 ballot, Top 2 make my PHOM...

1. Ray Brown (x, PHOM 1955) - Brown is atop my ballot because I believe that he stands out farther from the other pitcher candidates than Leonard does from the hitters. And yes, I do realize that my ballot shows that I think the current crop of position players is a little stronger than the pitchers. Still, I think that Brown's MLE's and reputation make him a more unique player.

2. Buck Leonard (x, PHOM 1955) - His MLE's had a little less power than I had expected to see, but he seems to have been an on base machine. If given the choice between two players with similar offensive ability, I will take the one who gest on base over the guy with more raw power.

3. Hughie Jennings (2, PHOM 1938) - I believe that Jennings' peak is such that he is a special case. It is enough to sandwich himslef between the slugging NeL 1Bman on this ballot.

4. Mule Suttles (3, PHOM 1948) - Defnitely, HOM material. I like the Willie Stargell comparison.

5. John Beckwith (4, PHOM 1949) - slightly behind Suttles for a number of small reasons, one being doubts I have that he would have played any shortstop or was a useful 3B. Dick Allen or Albert Belle at 3B/1B instead of LF are good comps.

6. Joey Medwick (5) - I have Medwick as being better than Goose Goslin who got in without much trouble. His impressive three-year peak sets him apart from the corner OF glut.

(6a. Willie Wells)

7. Stan Hack (7) - An OBP machine at 3B. Proabbly what John McGraw could have been ahd he played more games per season.

8. Wes Ferrell (8) - Probalby nto as good as pitcher as some of the plyers below him but he was a godo enough hitter to make him a beter player. A 100 OPS+ from the pitcher's spot is a huge advantage for his team.

9. Billy Herman (9) - Close to Hack and Ferrell.

10. Cupid Childs (10, PHOM 1939) - I still think that Childs is a HOMer. He had a nice peak and sufficient career for an 1890's MIer. I have him as the best 2B of the 19th century, edging out McPhee and Richardson.

(10a. Ted Lyons)

11. Hugh Duffy (11) - sets himself apart from the CF glut due to peak.

12. Dick Redding (12) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the deadball era and underrated by the electorate methinks.

13. Clark Griffith (13) - very borderline candidate who has taken a hit recently as I downgraded how important being the 4th best pitcher of the 1890's was. still has a very nice 3.99 DERA. Better him than Welch.

14. Earl Averill (15) - While he was never a superstar he did have a very solid 10-12 year stretch where it would have been hard to argue that he wasn't an All-star every year.

15. Bucky Walters (14) - slips a bit but I believe he was better than Dean and I had Dean on my ballot for nearly a 'decade'. Very nice pitching peak that came in 1939-40, not WWII.

top 10 returnees
Bell and Mackey - not on my ballot because of a lack of peak and concerns I have with their career totals. Both could make my ballot one day and I don't think they would embarrass the HOM, but there are better selections we could make.

newbies
No other newbies really do it for me. It is a weak MLB class this year.

1955 Ballot:

1) Buck Leonard
I have the Black Lou Gehrig slotted more like he was the Black Hank Greenberg, good enough for first this year.

2) Raymond Brown
Ranks slightly above Bullet Rogan--solidly among the top 5 Negro League pitchers.

3) Billy Herman
Pretty good peak—top 5 WARP3 of 49.1. He puts up some nice career numbers, too: 99 WARP3, 298 WS. Small bump for war credit.

4) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (100.2 WARP3, 985 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

A snippet from Bill James on Ruffing’s poor performance with the Red Sox from the NBJHBA:
But was Ruffing actually worse than his teams? Obviously not; he regularly led the team in innings pitched. Perceiving him to be their best pitcher, [the Sox] let him finish games when he should have come out, they started him when they should have given him a day off, and they communicated to him a daily message that trying to win was a waste of time.

5) Bucky Walters
Even discounting his play during the war years, Bucky comes out better than Ferrell.

6) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. 3rd highest Career WARP3 (80.9) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (455).

7) Ben Taylor
Ben has a highly regarded historical reputation—Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman. This year we’ll elect #1.

8) Mule Suttles
Generally regarded as the 2nd best NeL 1st baseman. I think he gets somewhat overrated when compared to Taylor because their eras were different, and Mule hit those towering home runs.

9) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

10) Jose Mendez
Right up there with Cannonball.

11) John Beckwith
Deserves to join Boojum in the HoM shortly.

12) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. HoM-worthy peak, if you ask me.

13) Eppa Rixey
WARP1 favors Ruffing by 15% before it makes the timeline adjustment. Win Shares shows them as having almost identical career, rate and peak stats. I consider their war-time absences to be a wash. Incorporating any degree of timeline that deflates Rixey more than Ruffing and Red stands out as the better of the two by either uber-stat.

14) Joe Medwick
I think he’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible player. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.1 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

15) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories say he was, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor earns him a ballot spot.

------------------------------------------
Next best 15
16) George Van Haltren
17) Stan Hack
18) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 43.9 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
19) Pete Browning
20) Earl Averill—Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.
21) Lon Warneke—Better rate stats and peak than Rixey, less career value.
22) Rube Waddell
23) Spot Poles
24) Dick Lundy
25) Tommy Bridges
26) Jimmy Ryan
27) Urban Shocker
28) Tommy Leach
29) Bob Johnson—Similar numbers to Averill, but at less valuable defensive position.
30) Harry Hooper

Other Top 10 Not on My Ballot
31) Hughie Jennings—57.2 WARP3, 150 WS in top 5 years! (Too bad that makes up 82% and 70% of his career value, respectively.)

New Players in Top 100
76) Augie Galan

1955 BALLOT (Gadfly)

I’ve been so swamped at home and work lately that I haven’t had time for any fun. One of these days, I’ll get around to redoing my ballot so that players that are all peak (Hughie Jennings) or all career (Jake Beckley) have more of a shot, not to mention figuring out how to give each and every pitcher more credit. One thing I have done is re-evaluate my Negro League conversions, making them slightly more conservative.

But for now, it’s easy. Wells (5) and Vaughn (6) come off and Leonard and Brown go on.

1. Buck Leonard
A tremendous hitter who, according to my translation of Chris Cobb and company’s conversion rates, would have accumulated 453 Career Win Shares with peak seasons in the low 40s from 1934 to 1948. Giving Leonard additional credit for 1933 and 1949 to 1951 or so brings him up to right around 500 WS for his career. He is quite comparable to Cravath, and listed above Gavy because, if he had been white, Leonard would have probably started his pro career much earlier.

2. Gavy Cravath
3. Raymond Brown
As I’ve already known for a long time, Brown was one hell of a pitcher. The conversions done credit him with 300 or so Win Shares and peak seasons in the high 30s or low 40s. Of course, I think he was even better than this. I think he would have come much closer to 400 WS during his career. By my evaluations, his WS totals, both career and peak, are much like those of Dick Redding. But doing that in the 1930s and 1940s is more impressive than in the 1910s and 1920s.

4. John Beckwith
5. Dick Redding
6. Cool Papa Bell
7. Mule Suttles
8. Charley Jones
9. Biz Mackey
10. Rube Waddell
11. Ben Taylor
12. Hugh Duffy
13. Earl Averill
14. Dick Lundy
15. Roger Bresnahan

Special Mention:

Fred ‘Dixie’ Walker is the highest rated, by career WS, of the newly eligible Major League players. In 1933, at the age of 22, he came up with the Yankees and hit 15 HRs in 328 at bats for an 11 Win Share season. Injury wiped out his 1934 and 1935 seasons and then he had to go back down to the Minors in 1936 so that he could re-establish himself to be traded. He finally became a starter in 1937 at the age of 26 for the Cubbies.

The injury (to his shoulder if I remember correctly) pretty much permanently diminished his power (shades of Wally Moses). The lost seasons pretty much permanently diminished his career. Despite this, Walker had a fine career, racking up 278 Win Shares. His best two WS seasons (33 and 28) both came during the War (1944 and 1945) and his next best (27) was in 1946 at the age of 35. Like most players with a late start, Walker peaked late (1943-1945, ages 32-34) while playing for the Brooklyn Dodgers.

Then, the appropriately or unfortunately nicknamed, Dixie Walker got on the wrong side of the integration question and got himself remembered usually as an intolerant bigot. The controversy pretty much shortened and prematurely ended his career and Walker ended up playing in the lilywhite Southern League in 1950. By all accounts, Walker later deeply regretted his stand against integration, but that is not usually remembered (on the other hand, Harry Walker, his brother who later managed, is remembered quite well by quite a few black and white players as an outright bigot).

But, yet, Dixie Walker could have been so much more. If he had not been robbed of his power by injury, he could have developed somewhat like George Brett did. If his career had followed a much more injury free path, he would have been able to build a more impressive Hall of Fame resume. If he had played his whole career for the Yankees, he would have been much more famous. If he had never played for Brooklyn and been nicknamed Dixie, he would not now be remembered as that racist guy who was against integration.

Most importantly, if he had kept his power and not prematurely ended his career with his stupidity, he may have played until he was forty. In another time and place, Walker could have made the Hall of Fame or Merit easily.

The Browns left St Louis to become a new incarnation of the Baltimore Orioles last year. Philly is looking like the next two team city to lose a team and by an ironic twist the more storied franchise may be lost because of a recent Phillie resurgence.

Ray Brown's better-than-expected candidacy is making this another wait-til-next-year for the backlog candidates.

1955 Ballot

1. Buck Leonard (ne) -- Excellent 1B with a high peak. Plus, career OPS+ higher than all other eligibles.
2. John Beckwith (2) -- The more SS-3B types who become eligible without Beckwith's hitting numbers, the more impressed I am.
3. Ray Brown (ne) -- Getting some high praise from the consensus. Looks like the best NeL pitcher since Smokey Joe.
4. Hughie Jennings (5) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago.
5. Clark Griffith (6) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
6. Larry Doyle (8) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
7. Cupid Childs (9) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
8. Billy "Don't Call Me Babe" Herman (7) -- Dropped him below Doyle/Childs this week to be cautious. Impressive Win Shares numbers look a lot like Doyle/Childs'. A 'B+' defender as the position is getting tougher. Eligible before Gordon/Doerr.
9. Mule Suttles (10) -- His bat does not have the value at OF/1B that other bats have provided. He certainly did have the 'big year', though.
10. Dick Redding (11) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
11. Wes Ferrell (12) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
12. Biz Mackey (13) -- Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-30s or so.
13. John McGraw (15) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
14. Stan Hack (14) -- Fine OBP man for pennant-winning Cubs teams. 3B is underrepresented and Hack would still has 300 WS after applying a wartime discount (with 3 30+ WS seasons).
15. Gavvy Cravath (n5) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles. Bumps off Ruffing who I've decided to be more cautious with.

Omissions
-- Medwick. He's close, but I gave Cravath the nod. I'm tough on outfielders.
-- Ruffing. Just bumped him. He was at #15 last week. Being cautious with him.

I'm here, and I'm going to start voting again. I was a voter way, way back, and if there is any problem with me starting up again, e-mail me through my profile.

1. Hughie Jennings. I'm glad I haven't had to endure 40 elections in a row with Jennings at or near the top of my ballot! Wow. Ranks above all other candidates due to my policy of always putting first candidates who were ever the best player in baseball - I think all such players post-1880 should be in.

2. Buck Leonard. Others who know more than me think he's a solid Top 100 all time. In.

3. Gavy Cravath. I actually can't believe we've left out Cravath! He was not the best player in baseball from 1913-15, because Ty Cobb was. He was the second best.

4. Mule Suttles. He had the big year. Three home run crowns, one batting title. Similar records are Johnny Mize, Hack Wilson, those guys. Even Harry Davis, I guess.

5. Wes Ferrell. Yeah, I'm convinced that he was a great player. I do give him a small amount of extra credit for being a fine all-round ballplayer who was prevented from increasing specialiation from demonstrating his gifts.

6. Ray Brown. Better than I ever thought, even though I think discounting the wartime numbers might not have been done to a sufficient degree for the NNL.

7. Joe Medwick. Came just a touch too late to be considered an all-time great, which he might have been if he'd been born in 1906 instead of 1911. His peak stands up with many more highly-thought of players.

8. Jake Beckley. You know that player people thought they saw when they wrote about Hal Chase? Jake Beckley was probably the closest thing to that guy. Has value in a lot of odd ways, I find him hard to quantify. He fits best here, really just above Beckwith.

9. Earl Averill. "Rock" is the perfect term to describe him. As a package, his first ten seasons are magnificent. I think Averill is considerably better than his defensive statistics show but it is hard to tell.

10. Bucky Walters. May come down the list once I think more clearly about wartime and what it means. Had his great seasons at a time of tremendous upheaval, but for some tremendous teams. I like him on just five years of performance, the rest of his career is filler and two good years as a Sunday starter.

11. Rube Waddell. All on peak, and that's with going behind the numbers. The most dominating pitcher of his time. He could be higher or lower on ballots to come, depending on how I rank the strength of his leagues.

12. John Beckwith. Certainly did play shortstop - for one year. Still, his best position was hitter, and there's nothing wrong with that.

13. Edd Roush. It's always hard to rank a player who has his best seasons in a context of absolutely no offense whatsoever. Roush has that problem. But he was a deserved star for a decade, and that counts big with me - a long peak.

14. Jose Mendez. May well move up. I'm fascinated with him and need to get a better handle on him.

15. Stan Hack. I'm not a fan of his peak, which happened at a time of great upheaval for an absolutely lousy team. But he's a fine if not all-time great leadoff man.

(My 16th guy would be Eppa Rixey, who's a classic "good bad team pitcher"), and then 17 is Red Ruffing, who is the opposite; 18 is Billy Herman, who just fell based on my unsureness of what to do about his defense)

Glad to see that you're back, Mr. Burley!

1955 Ballot

1. Leonard, Buck – I have him quite a bit ahead of Ray Brown, with about 370 Win Shares and better peaks than Brown. I project him at .322/.389/.522, which is outstanding. Excellent year-in, year-out performer.

2. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher, but can’t put him ahead of Dickey.

3. Medwick, Joe – Could potentially have been higher, but Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is practically an MVP-average season! He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon.

4. Brown, Ray – I project him with about 290 pitching Win Shares. With hitting, he crosses the 300 line.

5. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years of baseball, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

6. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

7. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

8. Herman, Billy – Nudges Beckwith by a few WS. Not as much SLG as Beckwith but more OBP. Also better than Beckwith defensively.

9. Suttles, Mule -- Originally I was afraid I had him too high based on long-ball feats, but on re-evaluation, I’ve had him about right. I rate him lower than an average defensive player. Riley basically says he caught everything he could reach, but implies strongly that he could not reach very much.

10. Waddell, Rube – Waddell still lives here. RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I have significant reservations about slotting him behind Mendez.

11. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at just shy of 300 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is still a good number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

12. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but a solid outfielder and contributed a LOT more at the plate, and that’s a much bigger factor for an outfielder than defense.

13. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety.

14. McGraw, John – Amazing OBP.

15. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, but was a peak performer and could swing the bat.

Required Disclosures:

Ruffing, Red – Makes me laugh. That's what I do when I feel like crying. He’s #80 in my system, tied with Mike Tiernan and Wilbur Cooper. Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Hack, Stan -- – He’s #25 in my system, behind Eppa Rixey (but really behind Goose Goslin) and ahead of Larry Doyle, Tommy Leach and Joe Sewell. Played for 16 seasons, but because he really only had about 9 full-time seasons, he does not quite make the ballot. I wish he was higher, but I don’t know why.

Jennings, Hughie -- Quite a peak, but too short a career for me. He’s #46 in my system, behind Kiki Cuyler (but really behind Al Spalding) and just ahead of Rabbit Maranville (now there’s a contrast!).

12. John Beckwith. Certainly did play shortstop - for one year.

He actually played for four years (not including 1928).

Ken Fischer’s ballot


Please pardon my ballot without much narrative. I’m working out of state...in Bakersfield, Calif. and have to pay at Kinko’s for a net connection. Sorry I missed the 1954 ballot…so now I’ve missed 5 out of 57. I’ll be back on-line at home in time for 1956 and will have more discussion with my choices then.

1.Buck Leonard…to me a no brainer
2.Mules Suttles
3.Ray Brown…forgotten by history…but not HOM voters
4.George Van Haltren
5.Biz Mackey
6.Billy Herman
7.Dick Redding
8.Dick Lundy
9.Cool Papa Bell
10.Wally Schang
11.Pete Browning
12.Mickey Welch
13.John Beckwith
14.Bob Johnson
15.Hughie Jennings

Just miss: Ruffing, Averill, Rixey, W. Ferrell & Beckley

I saw the Stockton Ports beat the Bakersfield Blaze last night 6-4.

SWW, aren't you using the ballot counter created by Evan Reich (which can be found at our Yahoo site)?

Truth be told, I've never been able to access the Yahoo site. It always rejects my login as nonexistent, but then won't let me create an account because I already have one. Or something like that. So I just made my own counter. Whatever. You know?

1955 ballot. Still don't have internet switched to my new place, so another ballot with limited comments.

1. Wally Schang. Catcher bonus, 10s-20s AL bonus, recognition that C did not catch as many games per season then.
2. Joe Sewell. One of the top IF of the 1920s. HoM career value, taking AL strength and true replacement level into account.
3. Red Ruffing. Put me in for the "Ruffing close to Lyons" camp. Ace of a dynasty.
4. Buck Leonard. Great 1B of the 1930s-1940s.
5. Ray Brown. Ace of a dynasty.
6. Earl Averill. Top ML CF of the 1930s.
7. Billy Herman. One of best 2B of his time; some war credit.
8. Stan Hack. 9th all time 3B in BJNHBA.
9. Mule Suttles. NeL HR king.
10. Tommy Bridges. 126 ERA+ in the AL.
11. Lefty Gomez . Peak-season bonus helped by 2 Cy Young type seasons.
12. Cool Papa Bell. Long career, low peak, like Sam Rice, but with outstanding speed.
13. Jose Mendez. Evidence of a HoM worthy peak.
14. Biz Mackey. One of greatest NeL catchers.
15. Joe Medwick. Great 3-year peak, but little outside to help his case.

Rixey and Ferrell were both very good, but have been knocked off my top 15 by more recent players.

Jenning's great peak makes him a legitimate borderline candidate.

Relative career shortness, uncertainty about his peak, and strong competition from contemporary players keeps Beckwith below the above players on my ballot.

1.Leonard No Gehrig, but close to Greenberg
2.Brown Close to Hubbell.
3.Suttles Bill James likes him more than we do.
4.Medwick By my system, we have inducted every ML that grades higher than Medwick.
5.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
6.Hack Looks to be a fuzz better than Beckwith or Leach.
7.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
8.Mackey the only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
12.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot.
13.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy. Only appeared on 47% of the ballots last year.
14.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
15.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
16.Herman Looks like a HoMer.
17.Cravath Now that we have some mle’s, Gavy jumps on to my ballot and could move higher. Would be in my PHoM had that information been available back in the early 30’s.
18.Ferrell
19.Poles
20.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928

Mostly recycled comments again.

1. Buck Leonard (n/a) - Initially had him a long ways above Brown, he's not that far above now, but still far enough to get the #1 spot.

2. Ray Brown (n/a) - Honestly hadn't heard of him before now. After the first little bit of reading I realized I would have him ranked high, by the time I was done I realized he would be giving Buck a run for the #1 spot on my ballot.

3. Billy Herman (2) - Billy has been a pain for me. I've thought him over time and time again and have settled on him deserving an elect me spot this year.

4. Mickey Welch (3) - Mickey continues to hang out at the top of my ballot. No way to justify giving him an elect me spot though. To many great players hitting the ballot each year.

5. Red Ruffing (4) - The 2nd player I had a hard time ranking. I couldn't decided whether he belong over Ferrell and Grimes or not. I am fairly satisfied now that he does, but that could change.

6. Wes Ferrell (5) - Hard to put him here without the career that I'd normally love to see, but his peak was good and just barely lasted long enough for me to rank him this high.

7. Burleigh Grimes (6) - Grimes just won't leave the top of my ballot. I can't say that it bothers me either.

8. Biz Mackey (7) - I love catchers. He's not Santop or Gibson, but he's HOM material in my book. He did reaffirm that Schang should be on my ballot.

9. Mule Suttles (9) - Not overly confident that I have him too high or too low. This seemed like the best spot to slot him for this year

10. Wally Schang (10) - Re-evaluated Schang. Realized he should be ahead of Lombardi. Over ranked Lombardi on the last ballot.

11. Sam Rice (11) - This is the type of consistency that I love. Simply the type of player that I love. Consistency is meritable in my eyes.

12. Ducky Medwick (12) - Ends up low on my ballot after initially thinking he would be much higher.

13. Earl Averill (13) - Consistency is key for me...what he could have done had he been in the majors sooner...I do give him some (although minimal) minor league credit.

14. Eppa Rixey (14) -I've decided that Grimes is more deserving of the word "Merit" by my definition.

15. George Sisler (15) - I still believe he should be in the HOM. Even his "bad" years were pretty darn good.

16. Clark Griffith (16) - Same old story for Clark

17. Pie Traynor (17) - One of the greates 3b of all time.

18. Stan Hack (18) - Nothing against the guy, but the ballot is crowded and I can't seem to put him above Traynor although he is really close.

19. Jake Beckley (19) - Not far off from Sisler.

20. Rube Waddell (20) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

21. Joe Sewell (21) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out. Same problem as Schang at the moment.

22. John Beckwith (22) - Just off of the ballot, but no fault of his own. He'll be back on the ballot again soon enough.

23. Ernie Lombardi (23) - Takes a big hit to adjust for his lack of playing time each season.

24. Cool Papa Bell (24) -

25. George Van Haltren (25) - At the bottom of my PHOM list, but on it still the same.

1. 1b Buck Leonard (nc)—The Negro Leagues’ Lou Gehrig counterpart to Josh Gibson’s Babe Ruth. Not the equal of Gehrig IMO, but a definite HoMer nonetheless. PHoM 1955
2. sp Ray Brown (nc)—A clear HoMer based on the numbers provided on his thread. PHoM 1955
3. 3b John Beckwith (3, 4, 4)—His spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections. PHoM 1940
4. 1b Mule Suttles (4, 5, 5)—Based on his reputation alone, I originally had Suttles ahead of Simmons & Beckwith. Based on Chris Cobb’s projections alone, he would be behind Duffy in the midst of the outfield/first base glut, so I’ve compromised between the two. PHoM 1949
5. 2b Billy Herman (5, 6)— According to Win Shares, only Jennings, Moore, and Hack have a better peak among serious bottom tier candidates, and only Leach and Hack have similar career value. According to WARP, only Vaughan and Jennings have a better peak among all eligible candidates, and only Vaughan and Red Ruffing have comparable or better career value. I give Billy credit for time missed due to WWII during ’44 and ’45.
6. sp Wes Ferrell (6, 7, 8)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter.
7. 3b Stan Hack (7, 8)—Similar to Billy Herman in both career and peak value; his peak was better but considering WWII Herman’s career advantage gets a boost while Stan’s best season is docked a bit. A card-carrying member of the underrepresented third baseman class.
8. sp Clark Griffith (8, 10, 6)—A good balance between peak and career: His peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former. PHoM 1939
9. ss Hughie Jennings (9, 11, 7)—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates (excluding Arky Vaughan). His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value. PHoM 1942
10. lf Joe Medwick (10)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a but, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
11. cf Hugh Duffy (11, 12, 9)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
12. sp Dizzy Dean (12, 13, ob)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Wes Ferrell has a better peak according to WARP.
13. ss Dobie Moore (13, ob, 10)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1916 to 1920.
14. rf Gavy Cravath (14, 14, 11)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
15. sp Bucky Walters (nc)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.

Disclosures:
17. cf Earl of Snohomish (ob)—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. I give Averill credit for his ’28 PCL performance.
21. sp Eppa Rixey (ob)— Suffers from my re-evaluation of long, peakless pitching careers made in constructing my PHoM. The new evaluation puts them in better alignment with their position player counterparts.
26. sp Red Ruffing (ob)— Like Rixey, dropped due to my reevaluation of long, peakless pitching careers. Was also a reality check for my reliance on WARP for the position.

1955 Ballot:

1. Ray Brown – Seems to be a definite HOMer. Ranked first because he is a bit more unique than Leonard on this ballot.

2. Buck Leonard - His projected hitting numbers guarantee an elect-me spot for this election.

3. Mule Suttles - The direct comparison with Leonard boosts Suttles up to number three.

4. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

9. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

10. John Beckwith - Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

11. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower third on my ballot. Will have to see if his career holds up when new candidates arrive.

12. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

13. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

14. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

15. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Billy Herman – Next in line to make my ballot as soon as a spot opens up.

Stan Hack – The war discount keeps him of my ballot for now, but he is close.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but can't reach the ballot with the newcomers this year.

No major changes to the ballot, so I guess I'll be high on the consensus list again. Touching on a topic in another thread, here's the list of players who I knew little to nothing about before the HoM who I've voted #1: Deacon White, Ezra Sutton, Charlie Bennett, Lip Pike, Louis Santop. But I'm pretty sure I knew less about this week's champ than anybody else.

1. Ray Brown (new) I'd feel fine about putting him as the #3 Negro League pitcher (behind Paige and Williams). A truly impressive record that the guys who do the hard work around here should be congratulated for digging out. PHoM this year.

2. Buck Leonard (new) It's close, but I think he's just<i> ahead of Suttles. PHoM this year

To add to sunnyday's point (post #17) about Suttles being ahead of Leonard in the top 100, here's a quote from the NL positional listings.

<i>"Mule Suttles, if ranked as a first baseman, would rival Leonard as the top man at the spot. I'd bet that Mule played more games at first base than at any other position, but he is listed by everybody as an outfielder, so I'll go along with it."

3. Mule Suttles (3) HR's aren't the be-all and end-all, but they make him look like the 2nd best power hitter in Negro League history, which sounds like a HoMer to me. Even if the 1926 MLE is inaccurate, he's got a consistent career with some very good years. Made my PHoM in 1949.
(3A Ted Lyons)

4. Billy Herman (4) I guess he could be a bit high, but he definitely looks a solid step ahead of Childs here, both on career and peak. It does seem odd that he piled up such high WARP numbers with a pedestrian OPS+, but the Win Shares are pretty good as well.

5. Tommy Leach (5) If my consensus score is so good, why isn't he doing better? :) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Has more WS than Beckwith's translated estimates in a career of very similar length. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate.

And as far as karlmagnus' claim that 3Bmen should be underrepresented because they're generally just not good enough fielders to play shortstop, that doesn't apply to Leach. In fact, it probably applies less to Leach than to ANYBODY ELSE IN BASEBALL HISTORY. Made my PHoM in 1940.

6. John Beckwith (6) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around, not an extremely long career compared to the other Negro League candidates, but it does all add up to a player worthy of induction.

7. Bill Monroe (8) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Might be better than Herman, but there isn't enough evidence there for me now. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Wes Ferrell (10) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. The 1930's might be overrepresented in general, but I don't think it applies to pitchers.

9. Stan Hack (9) Very close to Leach for me, but falls just short. I lean more towards career, and with a cutback for wartime, Leach definitely has the advantage.

10. Red Ruffing (8) I think his career edge is a bit behind Ferrell's peak edge, but I'm far from certain.

11. Joe Medwick (11) I think he’s a shade ahead of Averill and Johnson, but all three of them look pretty similar. It may come down to whether you trust WS or WARP, and I try to look at both, so I wind up confused.

12. Dick Redding (12) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. I'm not sure the teens need many more pitchers, but better him than Rixey.

13. Earl Averill (13) His record appears close to the CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. The closer I look, the less certain I feel about this, though.

14. Joe Sewell (14) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

15. Cupid Childs (15) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Lazzeri, and is clearly behind Herman. Made my PHoM in 1932.

16. Cool Papa Bell (17) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and if so, that feels like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation.
(16A Bill Terry)
17. George Van Haltren (16) In 1932, he was fighting with Childs for a PHoM spot, now they're fighting for 15th place. Consistently good, but never great.
(17A Max Carey)

18. Jose Mendez (18) I had been underrating him a bit, but he can't quite make this ballot.
19. Bob Johnson (19) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.
20. Dick Lundy (28) Leading candidate for "guy I can never quite make my mind up about".
21. Eppa Rixey (21) He did throw a ton of innings, but longevity by itself isn't enough. I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era.
22. Ben Taylor (22) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
(22A Sam Thompson)
23. Gavvy Cravath (25) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
(23A Rube Foster)
24. Jake Beckley. (24) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. It does seem wrong to have him too far behind Cool Papa Bell, though.
25. Biz Mackey (20) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
26. Spotswood Poles (31) Shouldn't be forgotten. Is he pretty much Cool Papa Bell without the hype?
27. Jimmy Ryan (23) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident.
28. Bucky Walters (29) Actually the top pitcher in my raw ratings, but it’s close and doesn’t include wartime discounts, so he’s definitely a bit behind.
29. George Sisler (26) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years. Still, for the moment his peak seems more impressive than Jennings'.
30. Rube Waddell (30) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
31. Tony Lazzeri (27)
32. Bobby Veach
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Charley Jones
35. Burleigh Grimes
36. Hughie Jennings (34) Back in the top 10 again? I just don't find the concept of a peak-only candidate as appealing as I once did.
37. Bill Byrd
38. Dobie Moore
39. Clark Griffith
40. Mike Griffin

1. Ray Brown (n/e) - He was a great pitcher, but I cannot see how one could rank him at the top and leave Rixey out . . .

2. Gavy Cravath (3) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Billy Herman (4) - With war credit we're looking at a 2B with 2600 career hits. He also had a league average walk rate and an above average SLG. One helluva player, as his five top-10 MVP finishes would suggest. I see him as quite similar to Lou Whitaker actually, though Herman hit for a higher average and Whitaker walked more and had a little more pop.

4. Eppa Rixey (5) - If a few things out of his control were different (like the elimination of WWI), Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer.

5. Mule Suttles (8) - Nudged him up in 1949 some after re-reviewing Chris Cobb's MLEs.

6. Buck Leonard (n/e) - Pretty good ballot for 1B. I like Suttles better also.

7. Jake Beckley (9) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

8. Charley Jones (6) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

9. Clark Griffith (7) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith? I've dropped Jones and Griffith below the three 1B this time.

10. Stan Hack (10) - I feel like he should be higher, but I can't put him ahead of any of these guys. I think this guy would have been my favorite player if I grew up in the 1930s. He was the Buddy Bell of the 30s/40s, but significantly better (though his career was shorter). I see him as the high end of what Kevin Youkilis could someday be, if everything breaks right for him. It's amazing how many great 3B didn't get their careers off the ground until they were 24-25 years old.

11. Tommy Leach (11) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

12. George Van Haltren (12) - I don't know what to do with this guy. You can make a solid argument that he could rank anywhere from 1 to 31.

13. Ernie Lombardi (13) - Looks an awful lot like Gabby Hartnett and Mickey Cochrane to me . . . I'm backing off a bit, as I was convinced that his OPS+ does overstate his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.

14. John Beckwith (14) - I'm trusting Chris's MLEs here - a little more than I had. I still think it's much more realistic to consider him a 3B that played some SS, than as a SS.

15. Bill Monroe (15) - I still really like this guy.

Close:

16. Joe Medwick (16) - Has to rank ahead of Averill and Roush, at least based on MLB (I'm thinking of Averill's PCL credit).

17. Biz Mackey (17) - After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

18. Cool Papa Bell (18) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?

19. Wally Schang (19) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.

20. Red Ruffing (20) - I severely underrated him last week. Still think we are overrating him as a group.

21. Wes Ferrell (21) - Great pitcher (for a few years) and good hitter (for a pitcher). I wish I could get him higher, but I can't say I'd want his career over any of those ranked ahead of him. I think his hitting trumps Harder's career value, but it's close and could go either way.

22. Earl Averill (22) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher. How much PCL credit should I be giving him?

23. Edd Roush (23) - Should have had him about equal with Averill.

24. Mel Harder (24) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.

25. George Sisler (25) - in penalizing him for his 2nd act, I was underrating his first act, though I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak wasn't that great. I realize that probably sounds confusing as hell.

26. Joe Sewell (26) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. A little bump this week. The more I think about it, I think I'd take his career over Hughie's.

27. Hughie Jennings (27) - I'm feeling a little more career value oriented of late, Jennings obviously drops on those days. He's down a little more this week.

28. Mike Griffin (28) - a great defensive player. He could hit too. He's been forgotten here . . .

29. Jimmy Ryan (29) - very good player. I've been convinced he should be behind George Van Haltren.

30. Hugh Duffy (30) - not quite as good as the glut above him.

31. Ben Taylor (31) - had slipped off my radar. He's pretty close to Beckley, but this is a tight ballot. I ranking him above Roush as a compliment.

32. Dobie Moore (32) - Is this too low? Convince me I should have him higher.

33. Vic Willis (33) - I could easily see him much higher on the ballot. Notice the trend?

34. Dick Lundy (34) - Back on the radar. Not as good as Sewell.

35. George Scales (35) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?

36. Lefty Gomez (36) - Very nice career. Not as nice as Ferrell's. 177-114 RSI record, which is excellent. Too bad he didn't pitch longer.

I have 39 ballots tallied up to this point. Still missing ballots from: PhillyBooster, jwinfrey, Patrick W, Kelly From Sd, Don F, Eric Enders, Brad G, SWW, Buddha, Andrew M, KJOK, jimd, Max Parkinson, Ardo, David C. Jones and Trevor P.

With as many as five Negro League legends competing for the top spot on my ballot, I thought it was a good time to review my ballot and make sure I agreed with the order that had developed over the past few years. (Hence the unusually late ballot from me.) As a supplement to the stats I’ve been using all along, I’ve consulted several lists of “Top 100 Players”, working with the assumption that we can learn a lot from the wisdom of others. As well as their mistakes. (I’m looking at you, Maury Allen.) The result is a bit of a shakeup.

1955 Ballot
1)Walter Fenner Leonard – “Buck”
SABR’s list of the top Negro League figures has him tied with Satchel Paige for the #1 spot. And Buck didn’t have a TV movie with Louis Gossett, Jr. in his corner. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll. 47th on Sporting News Top 100. 65th on Bill James Top 100. 81st on McGuire & Gormley Top 100.
2)George Suttles – “Mule”
Has a slight edge over Sisler on durability and longer prime. Consistently on the cusp of meritorious immortality. 43rd on Bill James Top 100. 13th on SABR Negro League Poll. 4th Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
I can’t bring myself to punish him for the strange shape of his career. His highs are exceptional, and his lows are not so low as to be invisible, like Jennings or Hack Wilson. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
I find myself in the interesting position of agreeing with yest that Bell has been branded with a scarlet “O” for “overrated.” As someone who gives much credence to career, the projected Win Shares impress me. Even the adjusted Win Shares projections impress me. I find him well ahead of the glut. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, 1952 Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
5)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
I do like the Win Shares, both for career and four top 10 seasons. Excellent black/gray ink. Until him, Suttles was the only left fielder on my ballot. That was surprising. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Is it the spitball that people don’t like about him? I’ll be curious to see how Gaylord Perry fares in the voting. At least when Grimes threw junk, he did it with the permission of the rules. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
7)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
If Rixey had some standout seasons, his career might look a little more like this. Compares very favorably with Grimes; I can see him moving up in the next couple years. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
8)Raymond Brown
And now we come to the most difficult fellow on my ballot. The numbers do indicate that he is one of the best pitchers to come out of the Negro Leagues. And the electorate seems to be overwhelming of the opinion that he stands far above the masses. And yet...I’m troubled.
I’m troubled that we’re the only ones to see this. I’m troubled that he places so low on the Pittsburgh Courier poll (5th Team), and that he doesn’t even appear on the SABR list. I’m troubled that the NBJHA names him best Negro League pitcher once (1940), while Hilton Smith gets the nod three times. I’m troubled that such an outstanding pitcher appears on no Top 100 lists, or even Total Baseball’s Top 400 Players. I’m troubled that Jim Vail’s standard deviation studies recommend Dick Redding as the most overlooked Negro League pitcher, and don’t mention Ray Brown. I’m troubled that Microsoft Baseball doesn’t even list Brown as one of the players worthy of a bio. For someone who we’re hailing as one of the overlooked masters, I’d like to at least see his name in the debate. But it only appears now. It just seems too good to be true, which gives me unhappy memories of cold fusion.
So what to do? I split the difference, and place him squarely in the middle of my ballot. This jibes with some assessments of Brown as being similar to Ted Lyons, who I also slotted around here. And I regret that he will probably be elected right away, preventing me from reviewing his case further.
9)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
I think for me, the thing that distinguishes him from someone like Harry Hooper is how late his career started. I’m not giving him credit for seasons missed, but his career is unique in the late start combined with gaudy career numbers.
10)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I place a lot of value in a lengthy, Win Share-rich career. This is why he continues to maintain his perch on my ballot. I continue to be troubled by the virtually flat line that his his career, though. Would one peak have killed you, Jake?
11)Stanley Camfield Hack
Third basemen with lots of Win Shares are hard to come by. I’m enjoying him sitting right next to Beckley. Jake gets recognition for his era, while Stan deserves a nod for his position.
12)William Jennings Bryan Herman – “Billy”
Getting more acclaim from the electorate than I might have expected. Definitely the top second baseman currently eligible.
13) John Beckwith
Welcome back, John. I think Joe Sewell is more of a pure shortstop, but if Chris Cobb’s Win Shares are to be believed, Beckwith is a more worthy offensive force. (Sewell, incidentally, currently occupies 16th place on my ballot.) Tied for 35th on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
14) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like.
15)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
I consider him to be the best catcher currently available for our consideration. I’m giving a lot of credence to peer and expert rankings here, so your mileage may vary. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Love his peaks. Hate the shortness of his career. I like him more as a candidate than Dizzy Dean, who has outstanding peak. I like Grimes, Rixey and Ruffing, so I guess that tells you where I stand on Wes.
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
I’ve been looking ahead to Sandy Koufax, and wondering what the heck I’m going to do with him. In the meantime, Jennings just looks way too peak-y to me. Five-year prime is over 70% of career. Ouch.

For someone who we’re hailing as one of the overlooked masters, I’d like to at least see his name in the debate.

I hear what you're saying, SWW, but the man with the second best (and close to #1) winning percentage in the NeL should have been in the debate a long time ago.

No, I think he just slipped through the cracks of time, like Ezra Sutton did among the 19th Century players.

A busy week; hence not much time to truly look at some of my question marks (Ruffing and Herman, in particular).

1) Buck Leonard (new)

Just ahead of Suttles.

2) Mule Suttles (2)

Lots of quality ABs from The Mule over a sumptuously long career. Are there any other serious candidates with a peak season over 200 OPS+?

3) John Beckwith (3)

Arky Vaughan-esque, without the matching glove.

4) Ray Brown (new)

MLEs look very good. But where's the reputation? A tentative 4th place on this tight ballot; I doubt I'll get a chance to move him up, though.

5) George Van Haltren (5)

Long career, OPS+ above 120 (sort of a personal benchmark figure for me, the sabermetric equivalent of 2500 hits), and held his own as a pitcher. Gets a small bonus simply due to his versatility in 1888-90. Everyone eligible that’s ranked higher according to HOF standards is in the HOM aside from Hugh Duffy.

6) Stan Hack (6)

Best MLB third baseman since Home Run Baker, in my estimation. Average fielder, but I do like the walks. If we're seeking positional equilibrium, we would be remiss not to take a very close look at Hack.

7) Eppa Rixey (7)
8) Red Ruffing (8)

After taking a new look at Rixey, Grimes, and Ruffing, I decided that Grimes doesn't measure up, and have dropped him accordingly.

9) Jake Beckley (9)

Was never a superstar, but amazingly consistent. Rafael Palmeiro was never the best 1B either, but that's who Beckley reminds me of.

10) Wally Schang (10)

Retains a top-ten ballot slot for the second week in a row. Compare:

Schang: 6423 PA, 117 OPS+. Batting average 4 points above league average; OBP 44 points above.
Dickey: 7060 PA, 127 OPS+. Batting average 33 points above league average; OBP 29 points above.
Cochrane: 6206 PA, 128 OPS+. Batting average 26 points above league average; OBP 53 points above.
Hartnett: 7297 PA, 126 OPS+ Batting average 11 points above league average; OBP 23 points above.

Now, I'm not saying Schang is the equal of Dickey, Hartnett, or Cochrane. And admittedly, that's a pretty quick and dirty analysis posted above. But those three have the red carpet to the HOM laid out for them, and Schang struggles to break into the ballot's top 30? Color me confused.

11) Earl Averill (11)
12) Edd Roush (12)

With minimal PCL credit (not a big fan of awarding minor league bonuses), Averill seems better than Roush.

13) Tommy Bridges (13)

Aside from his rookie season (and the 29 innings tacked on to the end of his career) Bridges NEVER posted a below average PRAA. I think he's hall-worthy, but just barely.

14) Dick Redding (14)

Like his career, especially when compared to recent NeL candidates Hilton Smith and Bill Byrd.

15) Wes Ferrell (15)

Peak-a-riffic.

Disclosures:

Billy Herman - not feeling the love. A difficult candidate to judge in terms of war credit: was he having a late career renaissance with that 135 OPS+ in 1943? Or was that a fluke, and had he turned into the player who posted OPS+ of 101-103-95 in the three seasons prior? For now, I have him close to Sewell, but a few slots above - about #22.

Joe Medwick is essentially Bob Johnson, with an SLG-heavy OPS+ and a slightly higher peak. Can't justify having one on the ballot without the other. Much prefer Goose Goslin, if I had to choose. High 30s.

2 rookies enter to take the place of the 2 recently enshrined. Stop me if you heard this before. Slightly surprising is the location, as they don’t immediately enter the top three. It was nice being #2 consensus for a year, but I don't think it's gonna last.

1. Mule Suttles (3), St.L - Nwk. (--), 1B / LF (‘23-‘42) (1946) – Estimated 0.306 EQA in 9300 Trans. AB’s.
2. Red Ruffing (4), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
3. John Beckwith (5), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Estimated 0.330 EQA in 6600 Trans. AB’s.
--. Martin Dihigo, Cuba (--), RF / P (’24-’45) (1955) –
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) –
4. Billy Herman (6), Chic. – Bkn. (N), 2B (’32-’46) – Hard to separate from Dick Lundy, though Billy gets more points on prime rate.
5. Buck Leonard (n/a), Hmstd. (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – I look at him one way, he’s a little better than Beckwith; a second way he’s just below Herman. Conservative to start.
6. Ray Brown (n/a), Hmstd. (--) SP (’31-’49) – I just don’t see the sure thing #1 that so many others see here. His peak years elevate him near Ruffing’s level, but for me, it’s a pretty easy call in favor of Red. (Both of them actually, seeing as Faber’s still in line for P-Hall above). Nervously placing him higher than my system otherwise would, in deference due to group opinion so strongly in favor.
7. Bucky Walters (7), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) – I see that WS doesn’t agree, but I place Brown at roughly Bucky’s level in the pecking order.
8. Biz Mackey (8), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday, but the NeL competition has gotten very tough, as seen above.
9. Joe Sewell (9), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.
10. Bob Johnson (10), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
11. Stan Hack (11), Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) – Totally deserving of appearing on my ballot if Groh still theoretically appears on it.
12. Jake Beckley (12), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Jake can thank Ducky Wucky for my reanalysis of all the MLB IF’s and OF’s for this ballot.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
13. Joe Medwick (13), St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) – More productive hitter than VH, but in a shorter career. Result is close to a tie in my scorebook. Better peak for Ducky gets the tiebreak.
14. George Van Haltren (14), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Curious how far he’ll drop off the ballot before he begins to rise. Bring on the elect 3 years!
15. Wes Ferrell (15), Clev. (A), SP (’29-’38) – Undeniably great when he was in there, it would be a lot easier to vote for him if there were even 500 more IP on the resume. I do show him preventing more runs above avg. in his career than Rixey, so Eppa drops off-ballot.

Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to equal all the others’ career values.

Jennings was in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.

running behind once again...

1955 Ballot:

1.Buck Leonard- I agree- seems like an obvious choice to me.

2.Ray Brown- Better than Satchel?

3.Mule Suttles- Superb power hitter ... Win Share MLEs are particularly impressive. Other Negro Leaguers show stronger careers, but Suttles has the peak/prime to match. Probably the all-time RBI leader in the Negro Leagues.

4.Joe Medwick- Excellent peak: WS3 = 109, WS5 = 157, Career Runs Created = 1400, Black Ink = 41, Gray Ink = 226.

5.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941.

6.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

7.Billy Herman- Career WARP1 = 116.6, WARP3 = 99. Ranked more accurately than last year.

8.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Pretty good pitcher, as well. Went into my HoM in 1938.

9.Chuck Klein- Career Runs Created = 1364, OPS+ = 137, and more Black Ink (60) than any other eligible player.

10.Stan Hack- Awesome peak; Career WARP3 = 89.5.

11.Bucky Walters- WS3 = 102, Black Ink = 48, Gray Ink = 152.

12.Wes Ferrell- Over 30 Win Shares/season.

13.Cool Papa Bell- The subjective accounts favor Cool Papa. Probably one of the fastest players ever.

14.Earl Averil- Consistent if not exactly mind-blowing career. Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

15.Edd Roush- Looks great across the board: Career Win Shares = 314, WARP1 = 111.4, WARP3 = 82.3. Win Shares A- Defender.

16.Burleigh Grimes- Some of the best Ink scores among the current crop of pitchers.

17.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286. Slipping?

18.Rube Waddell- Super peak; just won’t go away.

19.Eppa Rixey

20.John Beckwith

Hughie Jennings falls in around # 24 on my list.

Thanks!

1955 Ballot

Two new guys at the top, 3-15 stay more or less the same.

1. (new) Ray Brown. He’s got the ERA, the wins, and the innings. Easy top of the ballot choice for me.

2. (new) Buck Leonard. Higher OPS+ and better glove than Suttles. Played longer than Beckwith.

3. (3) John Beckwith. A great hitter who could also could play some SS and 3B. Shorter career than Suttles or Leonard, but at his peak he seems to have been a better hitter than both.

4. (4) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937 and has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that.

5. (5) Earl Averill. For 10 years, Averill was one of the 3 best AL OFs—probably the best from 1934-36. An A+ quality CF defense (maybe…), Averill also has a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit if one is so inclined. Though he lacks anything comparable to Medwick’s 1936-37 peak, his value over a 7-10 year period looks similar to contemporary OFs like Medwick and Goslin.

6. (6) Mule Suttles. His MLE projections (.301/.364/.537, 137 OPS+) put him below the elite hitter category of first basemen, but he played forever and was a formidable slugger.

7. (9) Clark Griffith. An old favorite who I wish we’d elect so I could free up some ballot space. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

8. (10) Billy Herman. With Gordon and Doerr coming, things are about to get interesting at 2B here. Had a very nice run between 1935 and 1943 in which he averaged 9.7 WARP per year.

9. (7) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

10. (11) Larry Doyle. Higher career OPS+ (126 to 112) than Herman--but shorter career and almost certainly not as good a fielder. (The same could also be said for Lazzeri and Childs.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. Defense? Well, WS shows him as a C+ fielder and that’s good enough for me.

11. (11) Dobie Moore. Comparable peak at SS to Jennings, but a longer career. At his best, I think Moore may have been better than Beckwith or Suttles or Leonard—but his career just doesn’t seem long enough to move him up next to them on my ballot.

12. (8) Geo. Van Haltren. Nothing new to add. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak, career numbers. Even pitched decently. Win Shares makes him look like a clear HoM-er, other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

13. (14) Rube Waddell. Downgraded, perhaps unfairly, for unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

14. (13) Hugh Duffy. When I first started voting 20 or so years ago, I was a lot higher on the Duffy, Van Haltren, Ryan group. In his favor, Duffy has career excellent peak/prime Win Shares (those Boston teams were really good), A+ quality OF defense, and good black and gray ink. On the other hand, his career is on the short side (7800 plate appearances) and he only has one season (1894) that really jumps out at you. In some ways, he strikes me as the 1890s version of Joe Medwick, though not as good.

15. (15) Cool Papa Bell. Long, legendary career with some question marks. Outstanding fielder and base runner. Could also hit some, of course.

Next 15, more or less:
16. Stan Hack
17. Biz Mackey
18. Wes Ferrell
19. George J. Burns
20. Edd Roush
21. Red Ruffing
22. Cupid Childs
23. George Sisler
24. Indian Bob Johnson
25. Pete Browning
26. Hughie Jennings or Dizzy Dean
27. Joe Sewell
28. Tommie Leach
29. Wally Schang or Roger Bresnahan
30. Jake Beckley

Required disclosures:
Red Ruffing. 11 spots between him and Rixey seems like too many, but I’m going with it.
Stan Hack. Just off the ballot. Among 3B candidates, I’m not sure I shouldn’t like Leach better.
Wes Farrell. Has been on the ballot in the past, may well return someday.
Hughie Jennings. Just not good enough for long enough.

1. Mule Suttles (2) -- The only guy left on the ballot who I see as a clear "inner circle" guy. The rest (except maybe Leonard, see below) all have some gaping hole in their resume. That, however, makes it more difficult to explain my voting because I can't really in good conscience say, "I am not voting for X because of flaw Y." I really have to think about why flaw Y is more important than flaws A, B, and C who the other candidates I am voting for have. A lot of what I am looking for from amongst the great-unwashed is a "uniqueness quotient." Among a group all of whom have some comps who are or will be both in and out of the HoM, I want my candidate to be "more uniquer" than the other guy.


2. Eppa Rixey (3) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Just because I argued for Lyons being better doesn't mean I now can't use him as a reason to vote for Rixey!

3. Buck Leonard (n/e) -- Now, for Leonard and Brown. I have Leonard here and Brown considerably lower -- lower than most, and lower than I probably would have him if I had a few more weeks to think and look and research. In my mind, there are two kinds of "uncertainty demotions", one of which is valid and one of which is invalid. The "invalid" kind is the where you say, "I don't really know how strong the Negro Leagues were, and there aren't really that many stats to go on, so I'm demoting for uncertainty." That's shortchanges a huge group of candidates for a lack of stats that they had nothing to do with. Then, there's what I consider the "valid" uncertainty demotion, which is based on the belief that there's more info out there, but I just haven't read or assimilated it yet. This is the sort of uncertainty demotion that has an actual endpoint -- when I feel I have assimilated everything relevant out there -- and will not extend until forever, or until a complete set of Negro League boxscores show up. For players who I know very little about, I often feel like 2 weeks just isn't long enough to learn enough.


4. Jake Beckley (4) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top. On my "more uniquer" scale, failure to elect Beckley will make him the only member of the top 10 in triples (his is #4) to not make it. The next guy who won't make it is Sam Rice (#14)/ Ed Konetchy (#15). Beckley is Rice/Konetchy Plus, and deserves to be in another level.

5. Gavy Cravath (5) – No reason really. Just picked his name out of hat.

6. Jose Mendez (6) -- Will Martin Dihigo become the only Cuban pitcher in the Hall of Merit? No way, Jose.

7. Mickey Welch (7) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented? The is the end of my "second tier HoMer" group.

8. Stan Hack (8) -- the Ed Williamson of the 20th century? I missed the boat on at first, and it was in the process of describing why he was off that I realized he shouldn't by. This was actually Ernie Lombardi's spot, who could have otherwise dropped off without comment, but I was convinced by the arguments in the Lombardi thread -- especially those focussing on his GIDP numbers -- that he belonged along with Schang in the mid-to-low 20s.

9. Dolf Luque (9) -- See Mendez. Great league with great pitchers. Relatively small league depresses stats (all teams are "All-Star" teams.) Where's the love?

10. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (11) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Ray Brown (n/e). See Leonard, above.

13. Cupid Childs (12) -- More love for the 1890s.

14. Clark Griffith (13) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

15. Cannonball Dick Redding (14) -- Because that's just how I'm feeling today, again.

------
16. Billy Herman (15) -- off again, on again. And now off again.

See last week's ballot for other omittees.

PhillyBooster - I understand exactly what you're saying about Leonard and Brown, and it's a reasonable point of view. But your eventual resolution and final placement of those two will be a moot point as far as the HoM is concerned. You won't get another chance to vote for either.

But your eventual resolution and final placement of those two will be a moot point as far as the HoM is concerned. You won't get another chance to vote for either.

Then I just have to trust that my fellow voters have worked harder than I have.

If the resolution is pre-ordained, I equally don't see the advantage of casting a "me too" vote that I can't really justify.

My job as approximately 2% of the electorate is to contribute my thoughts and analysis through discussion and voting -- not to be right.

Awe shucks, Philly, you may be 2% in the ballot box, but you're 100% in the hearts and minds of little children and fans everywhere. ; )

I like to consider myself as having approximately the electoral strength of Missouri.

Matt, you are entitled to your ballot as is SWW (#78).

I would just echo what John said and what we have learned over many "years" now of NeL data and analysis and discussion. The HoF missed on some guys, both ins who probably should be out and outs who should be in. Its a case of data vs. reputation, and we've chosen to go with the data, and there's nothing there to suggest, e.g., that Hilton Smith was really better than Ray Brown or that Cool Papa Bell (or Buck Leonard) are really thaaaat gooood. Meanwhile, Turkey Stearnes and Cristobal Torriente and especially Jud Wilson and also John Beckwith surprised the other way.

Then there are the polls SWW cited. I think a bunch of those polls were self-reinforcing and/or biased in the same ways, that is all based on the same testimony of the same witnesses, and also not based on the data.

As for Ray Brown, it seems clear enough to me that he is probably the #3 career NeL pitcher and that his peak was outstanding. He may have only been the NeL Cy Young one time but he also had the best year of any pitcher ever in Cuba over and above what he did here, and he led the Cuban League in HR one year to boot. He and Hilton Smith strike me as Hubbell and Dean, and Ray is Hubb.

It would be nice to have more time with that data, but we don't and it's not particularly ambiguous. But still, Matt has earned the3 right to make up his own mind.

I often feel like 2 weeks just isn't long enough to learn enough.

Actually, it was a month for Leonard and Brown since I create the threads for the NeLers a "year" before the major leaguers.

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. BUCK LEONARD, 1B. .Estimated 145 OPS+ over 8,669 estimated PA’s, and 373 estimated Win Shares. Comps are McCovey and Killebrew.

2. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 137 OPS+ over 8,010 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. 221 WSaR and .774 Pennants Added. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues? Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

3. RAY BROWN, P. . Estimated 119 ERA+ over 4,454 estimated innings with an estimated Neutral Fibonacci Win% of 254 and 299 Estimated Win Shares. Comp is Eddie Plank.

4. STAN HACK, 3B. .631 OWP. 370 RCAP. 8,506 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. One of the few good hitting 3B of his era.

5. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP. 346 RCAP. 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

6. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP. 282 RCAP, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher between Ewing and Cochrane, except for Santop.

7. JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP. 267 RCAP. 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Doesn’t get remembered for his also very good defense.

8. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP. 271 RCAP, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

9. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP. 263 RCAP. 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

10. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

11. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

12. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

13. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

14. MULE SUTTLES, LF/1B. Estimated 137 OPS+ over 10,163 PAs. After adjusting for parks and eras, I think he’s maybe slightly above Ben Taylor offensively, but a little less valuable defensively.

15. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

They both made the ballot.

RETURNEES:

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP. 321 RCAP. 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp. Better than Bob Johnson by a little.

EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP. 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Jake Beckley comp but with higher peak. Just misses ballot.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not quite as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

DICK LUNDY, SS. Estimated 92 OPS+ over 9,160 PA’s with at least VERY GOOD defense.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP. 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP. 319 RCAP. 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Goes to near head of the class of OF glut, but falls just short of ballot.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP. 167 RCAP. 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP. 354 RCAP. 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

BILLY HERMAN, 2B. .563 OWP. 298 RCAP. 8,641 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Hard to see him as much higher than Childs or Lazzeri.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP. 478 RCAP. 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

RED RUFFING, P. 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Good for awhile, and could hit, but I’d vote for Ferrell or even Welch first.

Running behind once again & have had little time to work on this.

1955 ballot:

1. Buck Leonard
2. Ray Brown
I’m sold on both of them from the discussion threads. Two outstanding candidates.

3. Red Ruffing: I’m more career than peak, so I see him as the best MLB pitching candidate, but the peak and prime aren’t bad at all. However, he’s probably doomed, between the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams.
Career stats obviously aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. Being an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners is a positive in my book.

4. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. Even if the 400-odd win shares get reduced to 350, he’s well ahead of any “glut”.

5. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

6. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia.

7. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%. Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

8. Billy Herman: Starts a mini-parade of infielders. Slight edge over Sewell.

9. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

10. Dick Lundy: Looks roughly comparable to Sewell, longer career, a little more pop, a little less average, great defense. The numbers on his thread could be devastating to his candidacy. They certainly don’t square with expert opinions. #3 on Riley’s list behind Mackey & Pete Hill.

11. Stan Hack: The HOM’s a little short on thirdbasemen. Stan’s an excellent candidate, 316 WS, 4 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons, good defense, OB-heavy OPS+ of 119.

12. Mule Suttles
13. John Beckwith
I’m not sold on them. Their hitting puts them on, their defense keeps them low.

14. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

15. Joe Medwick: He, Averill & Indian Bob are very close. In fact, there’s a bunch of people could go here.

Required explanations:
Ferrell: Impressive peak, but a short career. I like Mays & Waddell better among the low-innings guys. He’s close.
Jennings: Very impressive peak, but not much else. He’s not close.

(Cast)

Ballot for 1955

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my syste (yet again). Maybe next election.

I'm dropping my official support for some candidates as lost causes. When I am the only supporter two years in a row, that's it, until someone else brings them back. They will remain on my ballot, but deprecated as a "lost cause" (see Fred Dunlap).

1) B. LEONARD -- Easy #1 here.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

4) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

5) R. BROWN -- Another large dissonance between stats and reputation (like Vaughan).

6) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

[lc) F. Dunlap -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Lost cause.]

[lc) B. Veach -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Lost cause.]

7) J. BECKWITH -- Belongs.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

9) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

10) T. LEACH -- Pennants Added convinced me that my system underrates him.

11) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

12) M. SUTTLES -- Not Turkey Stearnes but not chopped liver neither.

[lc) R. Maranville -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat. Lost cause.]

13) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

14) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

15) B. HERMAN -- Moving on for now.

Just missing the cut are:
19-22) Hugh Duffy, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan, Dick Redding,
23-26) Eppa Rixey, Gavy Cravath, Ned Williamson, Ray Schalk,
27-30) Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
31-34) Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Earl Averill, Roger Bresnahan,
35-37) Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley

The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.