hot topics

A careerist's ballot to lead things off.

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

3. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment. Nice to see him reaching the top 10.

4. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on. If you like Ruffing, you should like Grimes.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have at 26).

8. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

9. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here, ahead of Suttles and Beckwith. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

10. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

11. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

12. Billy Herman – close to Sewell, the all-star games are impressive. This is the beginning of my defensive infield positions glut – Herman, Sewell, Leach, Hack, Boudreau, Gordon, Doerr, Traynor, and Monroe are all pretty close to me. Moore and Jennings do not have enough career for me, even giving Moore credit for early playing time.

13. Stan Hack –just better than Traynor.

14. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut.

15. Willard Brown – I see him as close to Medwick.


Boudreau is at 19, ahead of Sewell, Leach, Gordon, Traynor and Doerr, who are all in my top 40.

Ferrell is at 25, next to Mendez.

Jennings is pushing 50 -- I don't abide all peak.

Willard Brown the best newbie, Oms minus a tad. Trout off the bottom – 171-161 and by far his best year was 1944. Dom DiMaggio OPS+ of only 111, so you have to imagine 3 superb war years to put him on. Sisler gets the third “elect me” this year – his first for me.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-7-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

7. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-10) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, even if some of it was during the war years. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

13. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice. Decided he’s not quite as good as Rixey or Leever, after seeing Kelly’s figures.

14. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

15. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

17. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

18. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.

19. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

20. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

21. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
22.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
23. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
24. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
25. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
26. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
28. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
29. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
30. (N/A) Heinie Manush
31. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
32. Earl Averill. Fairly well off my ballot, and I think the team are giving him too much minor league credit. In the real world, 2019 hits at an OPS+ of 133 doesn’t get him close to the HOM. Not as good as Tiernan.
33. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
34. (N/A) Dick Lundy
35. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
36. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
37. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
38. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
39. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
40. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
41. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
42. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
43. Billy Herman. 112 OPS+ not very distinguished, but 2345 hits is an OK length career and he about breaks even on war credit. TB+BB/PA .448, TB+BB/Outs .677, pretty undistinguished for a mainly 1930s player.
44. Kiki Cuyler
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Jack Quinn
47. Tony Mullane
48. Pye Traynor
49. Jim McCormick
50. Dick Redding
51. Joe Judge
52. Edd Roush
53. Spotswood Poles.
54. Larry Doyle
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Joe Gordon.
58. Lou Boudreau. Only 1779 hits, and he played right through the war. OPS+120, but that looks inflated. TB+BB/PA.469, TB+BB/Outs.714. Might be lower than this, shouldn’t be higher.
59. Harry Hooper.
60. Jules Thomas.
61. Wilbur Cooper
62. Bruce Petway.
63. Jack Clements
64. Bill Monroe
65. Jose Mendez
66. Herb Pennock
67. Chief Bender
68. Ed Konetchy
69. Jesse Tannehill
70. Bobby Veach
71. Lave Cross
72. Tommy Leach.
73. Tom York
74. Stan Hack Shortish career and rate stats inflated by the war.

Very difficult ballot, but it is not going to get easier during the week. My rating system is prime-heavy, with substantial focus on a player's best 7 or so years. That having been said, I give lots of credit for anything rare, including very high career value totals.

Some movement on the ballot as I compare players more closely (e.g., Moore to Boudreau, Sisler to Medwick).

(1) Boudreau (3rd)-- A prime example of the prime methodology; for seven or eight years, he was Joe Cronin with the bat and an A+ defensive SS. The short career and slight war inflation keep him from being an elite player, but he easily makes my prime-heavy PHoM. Jennings was slightly better with the bat AND with the glove over their five year runs, but he nips Hughie due to better shoulder seasons.

(2) Jennings (4th)-- Guys with seven to ten years as superstars make my HoM easily. Guys who only had five or so worthwhile years largely don't. The one exception is Hughie, who in his time and place was every bit as valuable as Willie Mays, Tris Speaker, or Eddie Collins.

(3) Van Haltren (5th)-- An exception on my peak heavy ballot, but I think his prime was underrated and his career totals fit better with the elected than the unelected.

(4) Wes Ferrell (6th)-- In his time and place, a better five-year peak than anyone but Dean and a three-year shoulder to that where he was almost as good. Comes out very even with Vance, Coveleski, and McGinnity in my methods, and they all ranked just behind GVH when elected.

(5) Earl Averill (7th)-- In same general vicinity with the bat as guys like Heilmann and Goslin who slipped in easily. No position player with a ten-year run as good as his has been excluded and his career wasn't particularly short if you give him PCL credit.

(6) Dobie Moore (9th)-- His estimated WS have him with a Kelleresque peak rather than a Jenningsesque one. I think those numbers are probably a little low for a hitter of his caliber who played a good SS, but that is largely conjecture. He might deserve to top this ballot, but I continue to be a little more cautious with him than other Negro Leaguers.

(7) Cupid Childs (8th)--Doesn't fair as well in direct comparisons with mid-20th century middle infielders as I had thought, but I'm reluctant to drop him based on the difficulty of having a long IF career during the 1890s and my gnawing suspicion that I am simply looking for an excuse to abandon a lost cause.

(8) Eppa Rixey (11th)-- I understand the arguments against him, but ranks near the very top in career value among all pitchers who debuted between 1915 and 1960.

(9) Billy Herman (10th)-- Fully qualified for induction, but not much more than that.

(10) Hugh Duffy (12th)--Next three OF's (and Sisler) are very close. Duffy had no holes in his game, played every day, and was the linchpin of great and over-achieving teams. The fact that WS finds ways to account for these intangibles statistically is one of the system's great virtues.

(11) Alejandro Oms (13th)-- This looks about right assuming that Oms was an excellent corner OF and a good CF with a 125 OPS+ and a nice peak, but a slightly shortened career.

(12) George Sisler (unranked/17th)-- Convinced by discussion that his big season was very similar to Medwick's and, thus, slips ahead of Ducky. My guess is that if they had played full seasons during WWI, he'd be in already.

(13) Joe Medwick (14th)--More stick, less glove than the last two OF's, but essentially the same value. I give about 75% credit for the extra WS attributable to systematically over-achieving teams.

(14) Red Ruffing (15th)-- Very similar to Rixey in that his career is near the very top of pitchers over a 50-year period, though I suspect that he is getting some credit that properly belongs to his teammates.

(15) Joe Sewell (unranked/16th)-- Another shortish career SS with a good bat and a good glove. Clearly not the player the others were, but close enough to deserve a long look from the HoM.

Biz Mackey is 16th, so no explanation necessary.

Stan Hack is down in the mid-20's. When you make all the adjustments, he's really borderline. You could give him extra credit for playing an under-represetned position, but I'm not sure why I should give extra credit to 3B when SS and 2B consistenly make the HoM without it.

Gordon and Doerr are very close, but I prefer good hit/good field SS's to good hit/good field 2B, even if there careers are shorter.

I've got a glut of just-off-ballot OF's awaiting further consideration, including Roush, Veach, Charley Jones, and (as you will see in a minute) Willard Brown.

Willard Brown is an interesting case--he could well deserve a ballot spot and might be the best player I available. I'm not sold yet for three reasons: (1) the walk rates make me very suspicious; (2) I'm not sure we have effectively dealt with the differing quality of different Negro Leagues; and (3) I don't know enough about whether he had any defensive value above "not bad corner OF." I have some really big bats like Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning, Chuck Klein, Charlie Keller, and Gavvy Cravath down in the 35-70 range and I'm not confident that Brown ranks sufficiently above them to make my ballot.

The other newbies are not close.





Joe Sewell falls from 12th to 16th, followed by Sisler, Mackey, Roush, Charley Jones, Gordon, Doerr, and Redding, all of whom I find very ballot worthy. Hack is 24th; I find him very borderline once you apply a war discount.

Charlie Keller is someone who I thought I was going to support before the project, but there are just too many great hitting, short career OF-1B out there. Being one of the best of them gets him in my top 40 but not much higher. (I have Kiner rated higher, but I'm not sure if that is #1 higher or #30 higher or somewhere in between.)

Quick! Can we close the voting now?

(Signed) Jake Beckley
Mickey Welch

Obviously ignore the two extra paragraphs cut and pasted into my ballot after the long space. Sorry.

1958 ballot
Rogan, Suttles and Jud Wilson make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Billy Herman most putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1955)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
8. Stan Hack what’s the hall’s problem with cubs third baseman (made my personal HoM in 1955)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
20. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
28. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
29. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
32. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
33. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
34. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is just off my ballot
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot

Do you guys really think that maybe GVH, Duffy or Ryan might actually get into the HoM this year?
I'm hoping at least one of them goes......
I'd also like to see Roush and Averill get further consideration.
Everything I read about quotes from old-timers who played with these two guys are "big thumbs up".

1958 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Dick Redding I’m probably the biggest supporter this ballot, although Gadfly is close.

2. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters. The AA, poor fielding, shortish career penalty is keeping Pete out

3. Cupid Childs Hitting-wise, seems far ahead of all eligible 2B.

4. George Sisler OK, he didn’t put up the late career numbers that other players playing in his parks theoretically would have. He still put some decent numbers, and played every day.

5. John McGraw Mugsy’s RCAA domination of the rough-and-tumble 1890’s, combined with his head-and-shoulders status above all other 3B tells me we missed him. I should have listened to KJOK earlier. I’m not sure why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

6. Hugh Jennings Packed more into his five years than many SS’s do in a career.

7. Dobie Moore I think these two should be above Boudreau because their peaks were higher and longer, and they were equally good fielders. Jennings also does not have the league issues that plague the other two.

8. Lou Boudreau Similar to Moore, but with a war discount.

9. Stan Hack We could do worse than electing Stan.

10. Roger Bresnahan Best available catcher, by a good margin.

11. Wes Ferrell Fine pitcher peak.

12. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

13. Billy Herman The 2B studies show he is near the top of the 2B class.

14. Bill Monroe The 2B glut is rivaling the CF glut.

15. Biz Mackey Will probably be at the top of the new HOF ballot.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Joe Medwick – Surprisingly behind contemporary Bob Johnson.

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good.

Willard Brown – I have some competition issues with his era.

Let's get the Mickey Welch ballots out of the way. I doubt there will be many more after mine. No newbies make my ballot this year. Everyone else moves up.



1. Billy Herman - His peak isn't outstanding, but very very adequate. His career value, especially being a 2nd basemen pushes him this high on my ballot.

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same people for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was almost never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

3. Lou Boudreau - I love a good hitting shortstop. I love his 1948 year. I love the fact that he didn't strikeout much, which is one of the things I love about Sewell.


4. Stan Hack - I feel that I've really underrated him.

5. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push him up this high on my ballot.

6. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

7. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

8. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but he was still one stud of a catcher.

9. George Sisler - Even his bad years were still really darn good

10. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

11. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

12. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

13. Clark Griffith - wonderful career. If he hadn't of pitched after 1903 I bet people would look at him differently.

14. Earl Averill - Not the extended career that I like to see most of the time, but great peak and enough career value to merit a spot on my ballot.

15. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

PHoM, Willard Brown, Stan Hack, Carl Hubbell

Hubbell breaks the record for the longest lag while still getting into my PHoM.

1. Willard Brown (new)

I am surprised at the lack of support. I guess it is because you all don't beleive that his league was strong enough to rate. Personally I think he is not only the top player on the ballot, but that is not very close.

Oh well, Negro League players are quite subjective.

2. Red Ruffing (2,4,3)

He will get in soon, I'm sure. Maybe this year.

3. Stan Hack (3,3,5)

Another guy has a strong chance of getting in, despite not having big cheerleaders.

4. George Van Haltren (5,6,8)

Most overlooked player on the ballot.

5. Joe Medwick (7,8,9)

Another strong contender this year. We might have a race!

6. Mickey Welch (11,7,6)

Second most overlooked player on the ballot...

7. Jake Beckley (8,9,11)

...unless it is him.

8. Billy Herman (10,11,14)

Probably the front-runner for induction. That's cool. He is deserving even though I have others before him.

9. Biz Mackey (12,12,12)
10. Cool Papa Bell (9,13,13)
11. Eppa Rixey (6,10,10)

Really, I wouldn't mind any of these guys getting in this year.

12. George Sisler (15,15,x)

He slid off my ballot, but managed to slide back on.

13. Tommy Leach (13,14,15)

14. Hugh Duffy (x,x,x)
15. Dobie Moore (x,x,x)

These two sneak back on due to a shartage of strong new candidates.

16-20. Trouppe, Boudreau, Rice, Roush, Averill
21-25. Powell, Ryan, Childs, Doerr, Mullane
26-30. White, Griffith, Jennings, H.Smith, Streeter

1958

1. Hughie Jennings (2 last year-1-2, PHoM 1927)
2. Dobie Moore (3-2-3, PHoM 1942)

Best peaks available by a fer piece.

3. Joe Medwick (4-4-6, PHoM 1954)
4. George Sisler (5-5-7, PHoM 1938)

Best hitters available, certainly on a peak/prime basis.

5. Tommy Bond (6-7-8, PHoM 1929)
6. Rube Waddell (7-8-9, PHoM 1932)
7. Jose Mendez (8-9-10, PHoM 1957)

Best pitchers on peak/prime basis.

7a. Wilie Wells (e-e-e-8-8, PHoM 1958)
7b. Teddy Lyons (eeeeeeee-9-14, PHoM 1958)

e as in elected, a little catch-up here.

8. Billy Herman (9-11-12, PHoM 1958)

Closer to Boudreau on peak/prime than Boudreau is to Herman on career.

8a. Harry Stovey (eee...eee-12-12, last on ballot in 1916 when elected)

Next in queue among HoM/not PHoMers?

9. Lou Boudreau (11-n)

Only a regular for 9 years and only really 2 really outstanding years. Otherwise just a darn good ballplayer.

10. Willard Brown (new)

A tad better than Beckwith who occupied #10 last year, a significantly better than Oms. Hit for a little better average, with a lot more power, and apparently a similar fielder.

10a. John Beckwith (e-10-10-11)

Then would come Willie Keeler but I haven't bothered to slot him into the bigger picture until it's his turn. Right now he would be somewhere between Duffy and Oms (#21-26), but probably also behind Averill (#25). (Now that we are getting into backlog territory I am starting to re-slot the HoM/not PHoMers.)

11. Addie Joss (12-13-x)
12. Ed Williamson (13-14-x, PHoM 1924)
13. Pete Browning (15-x)

Deeper backlog makes it predictable move upward.

14. Stan Hack (x)

Put him in my PHoM consideration set and he emerged as being better than Joe Gordon, who was #14 last year. Not as good as Herman, Boudreau and Brown, but substantially equal to Browning. I also see him as substantially similar to Ed Williamson, so I have been underrating him.

15. Charley Jones (x-x-13, PHoM 1921)

My swing man.

Drops out: Joe Gordon (14-15-new)

16-20. Gordon, Doerr, Doyle, Cravath, Klein
21-25. Duffy, Childs, Rixey, Sewell, Averill (Keeler)
26-30. Oms, Monroe, Griffith, Cicotte, Dean

Required: Ruffing is #32, Ferrell #34, Mackey #35.

Caveat: Need to look at Quincy Trouppe. I have Bresnahan at #31 and Mackey #35. Trouppe may move ahead in the catcher sweepstakes.

Trout, Dom Dimaggio, and Tommy Holmes had nice careers but are nowhere near the ballot.

Waddell, Cravath, Monroe, Bresnahan, Griffith, Joss, Jose Mendez, and Welch are in my PHoM but off my ballot.

Gordon, Doerr, and Medwick join my PHoM.

1)Boudreau--Once again, I love those shortstops who can hit. PHoM in 1957.
2)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while. PHoM in 1948.
3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
7)Medwick-- PHoM in 1958.
8)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
9)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
10)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
11)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
12)Stan Hack--His time will come, I think. I like him better than Groh, who I voted for.
13)Billy Herman--I guess it’s just me but I prefer Doerr and Gordon. Bigger bats, more DPs. Is everyone giving them war credit?
14)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
15)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.

Ruffing#17.
Hughie Jennings—impressive peak, not enough career.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.

On the ninth ballot submitted, Boudreau is the first candidate to get a second vote for first place.

19 different candidates have received "elect me" votes.

I make no predictions.

Make that 20, not 19.

wow. My tentative #1 hasn't even made anyone else's top 10 yet....

Back from my vacay and voting early so that I am not affected the voting.

The MILWAUKEE Braves are world champions, who'd have thunk that 10 years ago? Franchise movement is getting *very* serious this winter as the Dodgers and Giants are moving to the west coast. That's going to make for some long road trips. Players are going to have to fly more.

Mickey Mantle followed up his triple crown season with an arguably better one. Ted Williams pulls one of his finest seasons out at age 38.

The electorate has been almost as infield-centric as I am of late with three infielders in the runners up slots leading up to this three-for-all. I'll have to check the demographics after the next election to see if I should be voting for more OF-ers.

1958 Ballot

1. Hughie Jennings (3) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago. Imagine Boudreau with 3-4 more 1948's.
2. Clark Griffith (4) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
3. Larry Doyle (5) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
4. Cupid Childs (6) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
5. Billy "Don't Call Me Babe" Herman (7) -- Dropped him below Doyle/Childs this week to be cautious. Impressive Win Shares numbers look a lot like Doyle/Childs'. A 'B+' defender as the position is getting tougher. Eligible before Gordon/Doerr.
6. Biz Mackey (8) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
7. John McGraw (11) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
8. Lou Boudreau (12) -- Good enough to make my ballot which says something. Short-ish career and was Jenningsian for one year instead of five. Might be a bit conservative with him this week, but I'm certain I have him below Beckwith (his competition at the top of the backlog).
9. Dick Redding (9) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Wes Ferrell (10) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
11. Stan Hack (13) -- Fine OBP man for pennant-winning Cubs teams. 3B is underrepresented and Hack would still has 300 WS after applying a wartime discount (with 3 30+ WS seasons).
12. Gavvy Cravath (14) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
13. Joe Gordon (15) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
14. Charley Jones (nr) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
15. George Sisler (nr) -- Welcome back Jorge! Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.

Medwick doesn't have a long enough peak or a long enough career to make my top fifteen.

Ruffing has been on my ballot before, but remains in the upper teens. He is a tough cookie to rank.

1958 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

We … need to elect … more … pitchers.

1-Clark Griffith (2) [14]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other eligible player. Hence, he is first. Unassailable logic, ain’t it?
2-Billy Herman (3) [3]
Well-rounded stud. War credit too.
3-Wes Ferrell (4) [9]
Career ERA of 4.04 compares well to the league/park average ERA of 4.72. Then add in the huge bat.
4-Stan Hack (5) [5]
Great hitter for a third baseman.
5-Lou Boudreau (6) [4]
A small bonus for his pennant-winning greatness in 1948.
6-Bucky Walters (7) [24]
Hidden greatness? Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too. Take your time, guys, but don’t worry, you’ll warm to him eventually :)
7-Joe Sewell (8) [22]
What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too.
8-George Van Haltren (10) [16]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
9-Red Ruffing (11) [7]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats. Yes, his teammates helped him a lot, but Win Shares and WARP are SUPPOSED to account for that, right?
10-Cool Papa Bell (12) [17]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Willie Mays, Bell comes out as a HoMer, even with a mediocre bat. And that’s what his rep makes him out to be.
11-Biz Mackey (13) [10]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here, above Roger B, with whom he looks comparable if you end Mackey’s career in 1932. Too many people thought Mackey was too good to leave him off my ballot.
12-John McGraw (14) [40]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
13-Earl Averill (15) [11]
A bit of credit for his PCL yrs. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
14-Joe Gordon (off) [33]
Well, now that I have his Win Share rate correct, he’s on my ballot.
15-Eppa Rixey (off) [12]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?

---------------------
Three 1Bmen (Beckley-Chance-Sisler) have the inside track to gain my next ballot spots, but a few NeLers are begging for further eval.

Required Disclosures:
Joe Medwick [6] … career is a lot like Indian Bob, who finished 37th! Do we send him to the HoM based on one triple crown year? Not in my top 20.

Hughie Jennings [8] ….peak only, and my system doesn’t credit peak as much Not in my top 20.

Others between #16 and #38:
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep
Cupid Childs …fine hitting second sacker, and playing IF in the 1890s was tough.
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Bobby Doerr ….almost Gordon
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Roger Bresnahan ...Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Dobie Moore …peak/prime shortstop
Bill Monroe …reasonable argument as best NeL 2Bman.
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Oms and W Brown ... might be worthy!

We … need to elect … more … pitchers.

absolutely.

1 (2)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

2 (3)Lou Boudreau--If 1948 never happened, I could see keeping him down due to him having big years during the war, but it's not like he couldn't play. Big bat, with a bigger glove.

3 (4)Billy Herman--Similar career and peak to Dickey, according to WARP.

4 (5)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

5 (7)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the best pure pitcher available.

6 (8)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

7 (9)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

8 (-)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

9 (6)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

10 (11)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

11 (10)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

12 (12)Stan Hack--This one surprised me. I can't say I knew much about him, but I don't see any reason to keep him off the ballot, especially coming from such a historically weak position. The numbers show him as Heinie Groh-lite.

13 (-)Dom DiMaggio--Build in some "appropriate" war credit, and he has the same career value as Boudreau. Limited peak, as he was amazingly consistent.

14 (15)Joe Gordon--One of the great 'what-if' stories. I give him credit for his war years, but my suspicion is that if there was no war, he'd have been close to a no-brainer.

15 (13)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

Dropping out: George Sisler

Top 10 omissions: Hughie Jennings is not far off the ballot, but his lack of career value has hurt him, as has the recent surge of clearly better shortstops. Biz Mackey is also not forgotten, but honestly lost some luster once players like Gibson, Dickey, and Lombardi became available.

Oops...my ballot rating of Billy Herman is completely messed up as my spreadsheet left out his war credit.

He should be #6 just behind Sewell.

If the vote counters don't mind, here's my revised ballot:

1)Boudreau--Once again, I love those shortstops who can hit. PHoM in 1957.
2)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while. PHoM in 1948.
3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Billy Herman--I guess it’s just me but I slightly prefer Doerr and Gordon. Bigger bats, more DPs, later in the defensive spectrum shift at 2B. Gordon, Doerr, Sewell, and Herman all basically tied.
7)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
8)Medwick-- PHoM in 1958.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
10)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
11)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Stan Hack--His time will come, I think. I like him better than Groh, who I voted for.
14)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
15)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.

Some slight changes in my ballot. Decided I was undervaluing pitchers, so pitchers in general got a bump up and peak pitchers in particular. Also took a closer look at the middle infield glut and different issues brought up in the discussion thread.

PHOM
Stan Hack
Vic Willis
Bob Caruthers

1958 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Hughie Jennings – Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
6.Stan Hack – Was a fan of his since I first heard of him. Very close to Heinie Groh, even with war discount. Better than Pie Traynor. Elected PHOM in 1958.
7.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time.
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Still in line to be a PHOM.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
12.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
13.Billy Herman – Looks like I fell for the shiny new toy. Upon closer look, not much difference between Childs, Monroe, and Hack.
14.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
15.Earl Averill - Decided to give minor league credit.

Required Disclosures
Lou Boudreau - Just misses my ballot
Joe Medwick - Not much different from Bob Johnson. Decided WS has it wrong in this case.
Red Ruffing - Moves down. Low ERA+ (for a HOM). Like Rixey better.

New candidate
Only Willard Brown is close to my ballot. Rated #27 for now. May be higher, but I want to be conservative with his ranking until I'm sure.

Off the ballot
16-20 Boudreau, Duffy, Walters, Rixey, Sisler
21-25 Bell, Waddell, Medwick, Bresnahan, Ruffing
26-30 Redding, Brown, Roush, Cooper, Johnson
31-35 Leach, Mays, McGraw, Oms, Cravath
36-40 Dean, Schang, Doyle, Gordon, Poles
41-45 Tiernan, Bond, Keller, Doerr, Sewell
46-50 Van Haltren, F. Jones, Taylor, Wilson, Fournier

Rick, you've gotta be my comp voter, seeing as how I have C. Jones, Jennings, Moore, Mendez and Williamson on my ballot and all in my PHoM. And then, just for good measure, you've now got Parisian Bob in your PHoM, too, as do I. Great ballot!

I'll take a fresh look at Mackey and Willis if you'll do the same for Sisler and Medwick :-)

Observation: sure seems like a slower-than-normal ballot week.

Glass half full outlook: everybody must be thinking hard :)

1958 Ballot:

1.Billy Herman- Career WARP1 = 116.6, WARP3 = 99. The key acquisition that led to the Brooklyn pennant in 1941, Herman was surely one of the elite 2Bs of his era.

2.Lou Boudreau- Outstanding defensive SS, Career WARP3 = 99.9.

3.Stan Hack- Awesome peak; Career WARP3 = 89.5.

4.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

5.Earl Averil- Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

6.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

7.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

8.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

9.Edd Roush- No matter what system I use, it always trends toward CFs. Roush put up some strong numbers, but probably not enough to get him in anytime soon.

10.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defenseive rating.

11.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes!

12.Jimmy Ryan- Lest anyone refer to him as a “lost cause”, Ryan still shows prominently in my rankings.

13.Hughie Jennings- Fans rejoice! He hath made my top 15!

14.Bucky Walters- WS3 = 102, Black Ink = 48, Gray Ink = 152.

15.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

-----------------------------------------------

16.Cupid Childs

17.Cool Papa Bell- The subjective accounts favor Cool Papa. Probably one of the fastest players ever.

18.Joe Gordon

19.Larry Doyle

20.Bingo DeMoss

Wes Ferrell- Currently ranked #23
Biz Mackey- Falls in around #29, yet I’ll concede he’s the best of the currently-eligible Catchers.

Thanks!

1958 Ballot:

A true backlog year--our first since 1945--but this year’s entering class nevertheless turned out to be stronger than I had originally anticipated.

With the top 3 returning candidates placing between # 16-20 in my rankings, I regret the opportunity we missed a few years ago to reform the balloting process by either expanding the ballot or providing for runoff elections. As several voters have now observed, it can be tough to keep up enthusiasm for this project when your top 15 are encumbered with lost causes and all the action is taking place off ballot. If I could, I would vote for 31 players this year.

This year I’m inducting into my PHoM Dizzy Dean in his 13th year of eligibility and Bucky Walters and Joe Medwick in their 5th year. Assuming that this year’s actual HoM honorees will all be position players, my PHoM will have four more pitchers than the actual HoM. (My PHoM now includes Ferrell, Dean, Walters, Méndez, and Grimes, but excludes Faber, making my PHoM 29 percent pitchers compared to the HoM’s 25 percent.) I prefer honoring first-tier pitchers like Dean and Walters ahead of second-tier position players like Herman, Boudreau, and Hack.

1. Wes Ferrell –
Continues to be underappreciated. In his prime he was more valuable than Hubbell, Lyons, or Ruffing. (PHoM 1944)

2. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL. Counting 1928, 10 seasons with 24+ WS. (PHoM 1957)

3. Dizzy Dean –
I see Dean’s HoM case as just as strong as Jennings’—not sure why Jennings garners so much more support. See my case for Dean in # 26 on the Dizzy Dean thread. (PHoM 1958)

4. Bucky Walters –
The successor to Hubbell and Dean as the top pitcher in the NL. (PHoM 1958)

5. Hughie Jennings –
In the 1986 BJHBA, James presented two top-100 lists, one for peak value, the other for career value. It seems to me that the HoM should include the top peak players regardless of how they place on career value. Jennings would rank about # 30 on my all-time peak list, so I see him as fully qualified for the HoM. (PHoM 1933)

6. José de la Caridad Méndez –
See my case for Méndez in # 65 on the José Méndez thread. Méndez remains the greatest unelected Cuban player. (PHoM 1938)

7. Burleigh Grimes –
My general philosophy is to rank players based on their best seasons and not pay too much attention to their worst ones. (PHoM 1940)

8. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

9. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. Also, 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. BTW, I think crediting players for the runs their team scores and the games they win is an advantage, not a flaw, of win shares. (PHoM 1958)

10. Alejandro Oms –
7 seasons with 25+ WS according to the MLEs. And like Averill, he’s missing the first 3-5 seasons of a typical HoM career.

11. Red Ruffing –
7 seasons with 7+ Warp1; 7-2, 2.63 in the World Series.

12. Willard Brown –
Places better than I had anticipated—especially after I saw those walk rates! I agree with karlmagnus that he should be evaluated for how he actually played in the Negro Leagues, not for how he might have adapted to MLB. But even in the version that doesn’t add extra walks to his resume, the MLEs still show him with 5 seasons of 25+ WS, plus he spent a couple of prime seasons in the military.

13. Biz Mackey –
Outstanding defensive catcher; also a good hitter during his prime.

14. Charlie Keller –
Four seasons with 31+ WS, interrupted by 1½+ prime seasons of military service.

15. Roger Bresnahan –
Best major league catcher of the deadball era.

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Billy Herman –
5 seasons with 25+ WS with a high of 32. It looks like he will have spent his entire candidacy just off the edge of my ballot.

17. Cool Papa Bell
18. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)

19. Lou Boudreau –
6 seasons with 24+ WS; 3 seasons with 30+. A+ defensive shortstop.

20. Stan Hack –
5 seasons with 25+ WS; 3 seasons with 30+.

21. Clark Griffith
22. Buzz Arlett
23. Joe Gordon
24. Mel Harder
25. Dobie Moore
26. Gavy Cravath
27. Leroy Matlock
28. George Burns

29. Dizzy Trout –
Better than I had expected. Our Constitution requires us to identify and elect the best players of each era; I believe that following this provision ought to preclude our voters from simply dismissing Trout’s wartime performance out of hand.

30. Urban Shocker
31. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals -

Dom DiMaggio also turns out to have been better than I had expected. I’m finding that the War had distorted my perceptions of most of the second tier stars of the 1940s. Without any minor league credit, I have the Little Professor ranked at # 38, but I expect that an evaluation of his minor league record (which I haven’t yet had an opportunity to complete) will bump him up a few notches.

Here’s hoping for the closest election year since ’42.

1. Lou Boudreau (3), Clev. (A), SS (’39-’51) (1957) – His prime rates are a powerful argument in his favor. WARP3 has appropriately discounted for his war seasons, and he still ranks in the top 25% of HOMer’s for his 5 best & 10 best seasons. His fielding rates at short are almost as good as Ozzie’s.
2. Billy Herman (4), Chic. – Bkn. (N), 2B (’32-’46) (1956) – His fielding value takes a big hit during the difficulty adjustment in WARP, a much larger percentage drop than Doerr’s. Needs further review, but this (as well as Lou’s batting advantage) allows Boudreau to start out above Herman on the ballot.
--. Buck Leonard, Hmstd. (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1958) –
--. Ray Brown, Hmstd. (--) SP (’31-’49) (1958) –
3. Red Ruffing (5), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
--. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) (1958) – PHoM selections are all about consolidating with the HoM this year. Here’s hoping the HoM reciprocates.
4. Bobby Doerr (6), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) – Reaches Boudreau’s career value but takes about 1700 more AB’s (War Adj. Up) to do so. Boudreau’s peak is once again the difference.
5. Dizzy Trout (n/a), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) – Trout is causing me to wonder how much credit I should award to PRAA as opposed to PRAR. Looking at translated careers with a 50/50 split, Trout’s pitching value equals that of Ruffing with over 1500+ fewer IP. My peak factor helps Trout out even more. Is a 50/50 split for RAR/RAA fair or is it too much? Maybe Ruffing is elected before this issue is resolved.
6. Bucky Walters (9), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) – Same boat as Trout.
7. Biz Mackey (7), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday, but the NeL competition has gotten very tough, as seen above.
8. Alejandro Oms (n/a), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) – I’m worried about the slippery slope here of voting for a non-US based career, but he apparently had great value and did play in the NeL.
9. Willard Brown (n/a), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – Very closely ranked to Oms, but Alex gets a bigger boost from peak.
10. Joe Gordon (8), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – I have Sewell being slightly better than Gordon with the glove, and Gordon with every other advantage between the two. It’s a slight advantage in most cases, and it’s not enough to rank Gordon any higher on the ballot than here.
11. Joe Sewell (10), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.
12. Dom DiMaggio (n/a), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 2nd highest war credit bonus to date (Greenberg).
13. Bob Johnson (11), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
14. Jake Beckley (13), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Jake can thank Ducky Wucky for my reanalysis of all the MLB IF’s and OF’s for this ballot.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
15. Stan Hack (12), Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) – Totally deserving of appearing on my ballot if Groh still theoretically appears on it.

Joe Medwick – #16. With 3 dropping off, he should be back on the ballot next year.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to equal all the others’ career values.
Wes Ferrell – He’s under consideration.

Medwick, Jennings and Ferrell were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year. Anyone else in favor of limiting the explanation rule to players who make more than 60% of the electorates’ ballots?

Yes, Tom, the votes are coming in very slowly this week. It is elections like this that define who we are and what the boundaries of our Hall look like.

1958 ballot. I haven't changed much from the way I have been voting.

1. Stan Hack (5, 4, 4, 3, 3) Depending on what you consider Beckwith to be, the second or third best-hitting 3B of the last 60+ years. OBP matters. I'll still say that about Hack after Elliot is a candidate.
2. Red Ruffing (7, 7, 7, 4, 4) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
3. Larry Doyle (6, 5, 5, 5, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
4. Ducky Wucky Medwick (-, 6, 6, 6, 6) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
5. Lou Boudreau (----, 7) Clearly ahead of Sewell; clearly behind Cronin. One great year standing out from a good career.
6. George Van Haltren (9, 9, 9, 7, 8) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
7. Eppa Rixey (10, 10, 10, 8, 9) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Wes Ferrell (11, 11, 11, 9, 10) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
9. Joe Sewell (8, 8, 8, 11, 11) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
10. Earl Averill (13, 13, 13, 14, 12) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
11. Jake Beckley (14, 14, 14, 13, 13) Not much peak, long career.
12. Biz Mackey (15, 15, 15, 14, 14) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
13. Jose Mendez (22, 23, 23, 23, 15) A peak-value pitching candidate.
14. Dick Redding (23, 24, 24, 24, 16) A career-value pitching candidate.
15. Willard Brown (new) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
16. Hugh Duffy (16, 16, 16, 15, 17)
17. Billy Herman (17, 17, 17, 16, 18) Offensively about the equal of Lazzeri, B+ defense; that's a very good player, but I don't see more than that.
18. Bucky Walters (-, 18, 18, 17, 19) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
19. Cupid Childs (18, 19, 19, 18, 20) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Joe Gordon (---, 19, 21) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
21. Tommy Bridges (19, 20, 20, 20, 22) RA+ PythPat 190-124, which is a record that has to be taken seriously. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
22. Cool Papa Bell (20, 21, 21, 21, 23) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
23. Edd Roush (21, 22, 22, 22, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
24. George Sisler (24, 25, 25, 25, 25) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
25. Bobby Doerr (----, 26)
26. Dobie Moore (-----) Short career, high peak.
27. Bob Johnson (25, 26, 26, 26, 27) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
28. Frank Chance (27, 28, 28, 28, 28) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
29. Rube Waddell (28, 29, 29, 29, 29) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
30. Roger Bresnahan (29, 30, 30, 30, 30) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.

I should put in my periodic explanation for not voting for Jennings. The essential claim for Jennings is that he crammed more value into his 5-year peak than many others did in longer careers. Jennings was certainly a very good hitter. An unusually large fraction of his offensive value came from HBP, but that is real value. But to get the value his supporters claim, you must also assume that Jennings was a defensive shortstop of rare historical greatness. I'm more skeptical of that - his putout numbers are more striking than his assist numbers, and most historically great glove men at SS don't start playing 1B at the age of 30. His greatness seems highly dependent on the environment of a particular time, place, and team - a team famed for its intimidation and rule-bending.

29. Dizzy Trout –
Better than I had expected. Our Constitution requires us to identify and elect the best players of each era; I believe that following this provision ought to preclude our voters from simply dismissing Trout’s wartime performance out of hand.

I agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment. Of course, you have him at #29 and I have him as just missing my top 30, so this isn't going to get him elected.

O,

Of course "most historically great" SS don't move to 1B at the age of 30. But Ernie Banks did. That makes more than 10 percent of Bill James top 18, anyway, and there are several more who changed positions, to 3B or CF or what have you.

But the real point is most historically great SS didn't have the injuries that Hughie had. His lack of career is an issue, to be sure, but whether he moved to 1B or RF or whatever in an unsuccessful attempt to prolong his career, or whether he had just stayed at SS, is pretty irrelevant.

And the beat goes on. 17 ballots, 14 different #1 votes, 26 different candidates getting "elect me" votes.

Marc,

I've noticed for a few years now that we tend to match our ballots pretty well. Probably because we both are peak/prime type voters and are anti-timeliners.

I'll take a fresh look at Mackey and Willis if you'll do the same for Sisler and Medwick :-)

Sounds good to me.

1.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
2.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
3.Hack PHoM 1957.
4.Mackey the only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
5.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
6.Boudreau I have been waffling on this one. Could be a couple spots higher or lower.
7.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
8.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot.
9.Brown, Willard
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Herman Looks like a HoMer. I have him well ahead of other 2B.
12.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
13.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
14.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
15.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
16.Ferrell
17.Browning PHoM 1906 and close to returning to my ballot for the first time since 1933.
18.Poles PHoM 1929.
19.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
20.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. PHoM 1942.
21. Mays I still like him better than Vance or Faber.
22.Oms
23.Roush PHoM 1942.
24.Walters
25.Arlett My system puts his mle’s between Roush and Burns.

My #1 and #15 were elected. In 1958, we’ll clear out three(!) from the backlog. In 1959, Satchel leads the strongest freshman class since 1952, which also includes Mize and Dandridge. The next year, Leon Day is the last of the great Negro league candidates.

1) Billy Herman (2,2,3) – High peak, high career. Often underrated. The SABR 20th century survey voted him #183 among 20th century white players, which translates to about #225 when you add in 19th century, Negro league and 21st century stars. James has him about #130 in the new BJHBA. He’s right smack in between those two ratings, I think. An all-star ten times. Three times top 4 NL MVP voting.

2) Clark Griffith (3,3,4) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

3) George Van Haltren (4,4,5) – I’ve been among his three best friends in recent elections. He continues to gain back the ground he lost in 1954. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Now in his 50th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4) Earl Averill (5,5,7) – Ranks above Roush on strength of league and minor league credit, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

5) Eppa Rixey (6,6,8) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

6) Wes Ferrell (8,10,11) – We need to elect some pitchers. Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

7) Lou Boudreau (7,ne,ne) – Being cautious with the newbie, but every popular ranking system I know of puts him in the top 180 all-time. Bill James has him the #12 MLB SS, between Appling and Aparicio.

8) Tommy Leach (9,8,6) – Still approaching Lost Cause status. I’m now dunning him more for league quality, as others have apparently done. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated. Voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Some voters are docking him too severely for league quality. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard

9) Red Ruffing (11,11,12) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

10) George Sisler (12,12,13) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

11) Edd Roush (10,9,10) – Rapidly approaching Lost Cause status. The past six elections have seen him plunge from 16 ballots to 6, as SNT’s Medwick-Ruffing-Hack-Boudreau have driven away long-time contenders’ down-ballot support. Pennants added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

12) Biz Mackey (13,13,14) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available, knocking Bresnahan off after a 28-year run. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

13) Joe Medwick (14,14,15) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

14) Jimmy Ryan (--,--,--) – After six years away, what better time to resurrect a Lost Cause than during a backlog election. To those 14 voters who had GVH in their top 12 last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes.

15) Stan Hack (--,--,--) – gets the nod over Jennings due to positional representation.

Jennings has been on my ballot before and will be again.

1958 ballot, which is our 61st

Wish me Happy Birthday!
older than Clemens, younger than Julio Franco (hey, who isn't?)

Recent discussions have further convinced me that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.
Looked closely at the top 13 Ps, INFs, and 1B-OFs, for a total of 39. Hope to add the last 10-15 longshots to the updated consideration set next year.

last year's ranking in parentheses (lots of movement here), new comments everywhere:

1. EPPA RIXEY (3) - Matches Ruffing in top 3-4 years except for hitting credit; then slowly but surely maintains an advantage. WW I credit as well. Am now more comfortable than ever putting Eppa here.
2. JAKE BECKLEY (4) - His OPS+s as a regular:
152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Amazing. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went, it's only he who lasted.
3. BILLY HERMAN (10) - I've come around on him. Great fielder, pretty long career for INF, war credit, six 120 OPS+ seasons, etc.

4. GEORGE SISLER (7) - The comparison with Medwick in the ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument that his best season was better than George's, but it's debatable and too many voters are using other systems that work against Sisler. Guess I'm a contrarian.
5. RED RUFFING (---) - Moves up in my rankings, a little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
6. CUPID CHILDS (9) - I discount the crap out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s. A full-length career for the brutal era as well.
7. PETE BROWNING (12) - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
8. WES FERRELL (15) - Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done.
9. DICK REDDING (--) - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of career shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that.
10. LOU BOUDREAU (2) - Drops to here off second look. Had a best year outside WW II, which is key. One more good year, and I'd be a lot more comfortable with him.
11. STAN HACK (---) - OK, finally have warmed up a tad. Plenty of solid years outside WW II, seems like a decent fielder, slight position bonus.
12. CLARK GRIFFITH (6) - I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
13. COOL PAPA BELL (8) - Allowing for park and steals leading him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd be in the HOM a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
14. JOE MEDWICK (---) - Helped a little by the review. Very nice 5, 8 10-year numbers.
15. JOSE MENDEZ (---) - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings. Tiny positional bonus gets him on.

OTHERS CONSIDERED CLOSELY
RUBE WADDELL -Finally back on my radar based on astounding four-year ERA+s (179-79-65-53), but was the anti-Griffith. HOM-quality stuff, but unearned run totals suggest a guy who unraveled easily.
MICKEY WELCH - Slips from 8th last year. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance wasn't there.
BOBBY DOERR - Full-length career, too, but I have a huge problem with his only great year being a war one. Noses Gordon only on fielding; anyone claim Gordon could pick it like Doerr?
JOE GORDON - Was 14th last year. A bit underrated, another with seven years of 120 OPS+ if you give him one for the war.
HUGHIE JENNINGS - 13th last year. I've voted for him dozens of times, but fresh look hurts him. Fifth year is only OK, sixth year worthless and seventh year worse than that.
EARL AVERILL - A rare clear example for minor league credit, it lifts him several notches here but not quite above Medwick (boy, is it close).
ALEJANDRO OMS - I refer to him as a 'Bernie Williams' in his thread. I love his ability to match or outhit several HOMers in competition together, so ability is there. A little leery on career length, so for now he's here.

OTHER TOP 10 RETURNEE
BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread - Sisler, one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career; McGuire, played forever as a C but not always that often, or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others.

Wish me Happy Birthday!

Happy Birthday, Howie!!!!

:-)

ditto, from another guy older than Clemens, but still younger than EITHER J Franco.

ditto from the guy who is not only older than Clemens but also older than J. Franco. My god how did this happen?

1958 Ballot:

1) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (100.2 WARP3, 985 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

2) Billy Herman
Pretty good peak—top 5 WARP3 of 49.1. He puts up some nice career numbers, too: 99 WARP3, 298 WS. Small bump for war credit.

3) Bucky Walters
Even discounting his play during the war years, Bucky comes out better than Ferrell.

4) Lou Boudreau
Virtually tied with Cronin in my rankings. Herman’s war credit nudges him past Lou.

5) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I see Suttles & Taylor as tied for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman.

6) Bobby Doerr
Close to Boudreau, but peak and position advantages give Lou the edge.

7) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

8) Jose Mendez
Stays paired with Cannonball.

9) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible player. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

10) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

11) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I rank him somewhere in-between.

12) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

13) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. Best case scenario (for him) he’s just below Bucky Walters on my ballot; worst case scenario he’s down near Lon Warneke. I’ve got him with a slight edge over Ferrell.

14 Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. 4th highest Career WARP3 (81.6) among eligible pitchers, 2nd highest 5-year PRAR (457).

15) Dizzy Dean
493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.

------------------------------------------
The Rest of the Top 50
16) Eppa Rixey—WARP1 favors Ruffing by 15% before it makes the timeline adjustment. Win Shares shows them as having almost identical career, rate and peak stats. I consider their war-time absences to be a wash. Incorporating any degree of timeline that deflates Rixey more than Ruffing and Red stands out as the better of the two by either uber-stat.
17) Stan Hack—Best White 3B since HR Baker.
18) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 43.9 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
19) Pete Browning
20) Earl Averill—Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.
21) Spot Poles
22) Alejandro Oms
23) Joe Gordon—Not quite on the Herman/Boudreau/Doerr level.
24) Bill Monroe
25) Lon Warneke
26) Charlie Keller
27) Rube Waddell
28) Dick Lundy
29) Tommy Bridges
30) Jimmy Ryan
31) Urban Shocker
32) Mel Harder
33) Clark Griffith
34) Paul Derringer
35) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty (?)
36) Dominic DiMaggio
37) Dobie Moore
38) Ed Ciccotte
39) Jack Quinn
40) Vic Willis
41) Tommy Leach
42) Bob Johnson
43) Harry Hooper
44) Jim McCormick
45) Waite Hoyt
46) Burleigh Grimes
47) Hughie Jennings—57.2 WARP3, 150 WS in top 5 years! (Too bad that makes up 82% and 70% of his career value, respectively.)
48) Ed Roush
49) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
50) Joe Sewell

1958 BALLOT (GADFLY)

1. Gavy Cravath
2. Willard Brown
3. Dick Redding
4. Cool Papa Bell
5. Charley Jones
6. Biz Mackey
7. Alejandro Oms
8. Rube Waddell
9. Ben Taylor
10. Hugh Duffy
11. Earl Averill
12. Joe Gordon
13. Dick Lundy
14. Quincy Trouppe
15. Sam Jethroe

Several years ago, I attended several fundraisers for the Dana Farber Cancer Center in Palm Beach, Florida. Dom DiMaggio, with his wife, also attended these fundraisers and I had the pleasure of meeting him. One year, I was even seated at the same table as Mr. DiMaggio and had a long conversation with him (not about baseball). From personal experience, I can state that Mr. DiMaggio’s reputation for being a gentleman is very well deserved. Even though I cannot advocate him for the Hall of Merit, he certainly deserves to be in the Hall of Fame as a human being.

I dimly recall a story from San Francisco a few years ago. I could be wrong, but I remember it going something like this:

The City of San Francisco wanted to rename a modest little bit of parkland in the North Beach neighborhood as "DiMaggio Park" or "DiMaggio Playground" - something like that. There may have been some evidence that the DiMaggio boys played on this very land as kids. A lawyer representing the estate of the late Joe DiMaggio objected and threatened to sue, implying that it was demeaning for the great man's name to be associated with a mere neighborhood playlot, and probably anything else of less grandeur than a major suspension bridge.

Dom DiMaggio let it be publicly known that he thought the name for the park was a good idea.

Does anyone know the rest of the story? How did it turn out.

And the beat goes on. 17 ballots, 14 different #1 votes, 26 different candidates getting "elect me" votes.

I have "only" 13 different #1s to that point, other counts the same. I probably goofed somewhere, I'll recheck it.

However many there were, there are even more now -- I was hoping to be the one to add Ruffing, but the Thane beat me to it. I'll put mine up shortly.

On the discussion thread, Eric C submitted an absentee ballot in #85 that needs to be transferred, with yet another new #1.

This is fun to watch, and a little strange.

Here we go:

Mackey, Herman and Red Faber go into my PHOM this year.

1958 ballot:

1. Red Ruffing: Will he be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams? Career stats obviously aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. Being an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners is a positive in my book. (PHOM 1956)

2. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. Even if the 400-odd win shares get reduced to 350, he’s well ahead of any “glut”. (PHOM 1957)

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia.

6. Billy Herman: Starts a parade of infielders. Slight edge over Sewell without any war credit, imagining a couple of decent additional seasons puts him well ahead.

7. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

8. Stan Hack: The HOM’s a little short on thirdbasemen. Stan’s an excellent candidate, 316 WS, 4 STATS AS, 10 all-star quality seasons, good defense, OB-heavy OPS+ of 119.

9. Bobby Doerr
10. Lou Boudreau
Tough to choose. Boudreau has the defensive edge and the enormous MVP season. Doerr was more frequently at or near tops at his position.

11. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

13. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Earl, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

14. Clark Griffith: Moves on & off ballot as the crowd thins or thickens. PHOM 1945.

15. Roger Bresnahan: He’s back after an absence of several years. Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. PHOM 1929.

Required disclosures:
Wes Ferrell: Impressive peak and a lot of value in a relatively short career. He’s just off.
Hughie Jennings: Impressive peak, but not much else. He’s not close.

17 different #1s on 22 ballots.

The City of San Francisco wanted to rename a modest little bit of parkland in the North Beach neighborhood as "DiMaggio Park" or "DiMaggio Playground" - something like that. There may have been some evidence that the DiMaggio boys played on this very land as kids. A lawyer representing the estate of the late Joe DiMaggio objected and threatened to sue, implying that it was demeaning for the great man's name to be associated with a mere neighborhood playlot, and probably anything else of less grandeur than a major suspension bridge.

I remember this too. I guess the park was near where Joe grew up. Possibly the park where he began playing ball. I do remember them thinking a neighborhood park was too small for a man of Joe's stature. I seem to remember them listing things that were worth his name -- freeway, airport, etc.

I wish I could find a link to an exact quote, though as these types of quotes I like to get right. It was indeed a terrible bit of PR on the behalf of Dimaggio's estate.

I wish I could find a link to an exact quote, though as these types of quotes I like to get right.

Same here - in particular, I would like to get the Dom DiMaggio connection to the story right. I think they were going to just use the last name, "DiMaggio," which sounds to me like something that would make Dom's opinion count for something. I posted that in the first place in response to what Gadfly said in #40.

1958 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

2. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again over the last two weeks, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

3. Boudreau, Lou – Excellent fielding shortstop who outhit the league by about 1/3. His WS and WARP1 numbers are top notch when compared to shortstops in the HoF.

4. Jennings, Hughie – I caved. He leaps onto my ballot because many of the changes to my system are designed to give players at key defensive spots a fairer shake.

5. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

6. Herman, Billy – Nudges Beckwith by a few WS and a better team attitude. Not as much SLG as Beckwith but more OBP. Also better than Beckwith defensively at a tougher primary defensive position.

7. Hack, Stan – The best 3b of his era, IMO.

8. Duffy, Hugh – Had him too high last week because the system overhaul was not yet complete. A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

9. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

10. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS.

11. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year. The added blacklisted seasons were somewhat offset by my new higher AA discount.

12. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

13. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

14. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

15. Averill, Earl – Decided to give him minor league credit, which I have mixed feelings about.

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

1958 ballot:

1. Billy Herman - very tight bunch of backloggers
2. Bobby Doerr - way underrated
3. Jake Beckley - very good for very long time
4. George Van Haltren - 1890s star
5. Lou Boudreau - a distant relative
6. Red Ruffing - a very good pitcher
7. Earl Averill - solid career
8. Joe Gordon - with significant WWII credit
9. Stan Hack - solid career, better than Pie
10. Bob Johnson - solid career, better than Ducky
11. Tommy Bridges - where have all the pitchers gone
12. Willard Brown - I may have him too low
13. Joe Medwick - peakish career
14. Eppa Rixey - innings eater
15. Cupid Childs - yea, makes my ballot again

Required disclosures: not voting for Hughie Jennings (though tempted), Wes Ferrell (only slightly tempted), and Biz Mackey (not tempted).

1. 2b Billy Herman (3, 4, 5)— According to Win Shares, only Jennings, Moore, and Hack have a better peak among middle infield candidates, and only Leach and Hack have similar career value. According to WARP, only Jennings has a better peak than all eligible, and only Red Ruffing has comparable or better career value. Billy receives credit for time missed due to WWII during ’44 and ’45. PHoM 1956
2. sp Wes Ferrell (5, 5, 6)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter. PHoM 1957
3. 3b Stan Hack (6, 6, 7)—Similar to Billy Herman in both career and peak value; his peak was better but considering WWII Herman’s career advantage gets a boost while Stan’s best season is docked a bit. PHoM 1958
4. cf Alejandro Oms (4, ob)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS). PHoM 1942
5. sp Clark Griffith (7, 7, 8)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former. PHoM 1939
6. ss Hughie Jennings (8, 8, 9)—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 74.7% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
7. cf Hugh Duffy (10, 10, 11)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
8. lf Joe Medwick (9, 9, 10)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
9. sp Dizzy Dean (11, 11, 12)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Wes Ferrell has a better peak according to WARP.
10. ss Dobie Moore (12, 12, 13)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1916 to 1920.
11. rf Gavy Cravath (13, 13, 14)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
12. sp Bucky Walters (14, 14, 15)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
13. 2b Cupid Childs (15, ob)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
14. ss Lou Boudreau (ob)—Falls short of Herman because I consider their peaks about even with WWII era discounts and WJB has a decided advantage career-wise. Both Jennings and Moore still have such an advantage peak-wise that they fall just ahead of Lou even with decidedly less career value. So Boudreau falls to a bottom ballot contender with Childs and Joe Gordon (who is very similar to Lou).
15. sp Jose Mendez (ob)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.

Required Disclosures:
17. cf Earl Averill (ob)—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. Similar in value to Boudreau & Gordon, IMO. I give Averill credit for his ’28 PCL performance.
19. sp Eppa Rixey (ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+ puts Eppa Rixey near my ballot, but his lack of a peak just doesn’t cut it.
20. rf Willard Brown (nc)—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
21. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
27. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud his candidacy.

Here's Eric C.'s ballot:

1958 absentee ballot.

I will be unable to submit a ballot next week, so could somebody please post this on the '58 ballot thread?

A definite backlog year. Even with war credit, Dom DiMaggio falls short. Willard Brown has a strong case as one of the best hitters in the NeL "West" during his prime. He doesn't make my ballot in my first pass through his case, but I'm definitely not writing him off.

1. Wally Schang Pops back to the top by default. Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Bresnahan and Lombardi are the other 20th century ML catchers who belong in the discussion.

2. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is a HoM-worthy career. The number of seasons among the top N players in league demonstrate a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, one's point of view on AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his standing in the all-time rank-o-meter.

3. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him: IMO, a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey s the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

4. Joe Gordon With all the talk about giving WWII credit, will it actually make any difference between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons.

5. Bobby Doerr Another great 2B.

6. Stan Hack The 2nd greatest ML 3B to date, behind Baker, which is both a credit to Hack and an indication of the historic weakness of the 3B position.

7. Billy Herman Worthy.

8. Earl Averill Top ML CF of the 1930s.

9. Charlie Keller Peak, peak, peak, but will end up one of the few 30 WS/162 players in history not to make the HoM. Very few full-time seasons due to war and injuries, but was actually one of the most durable players when available 1940-1946. For those who thought that Greenberg, with a 158 OPS+ in 1394 games and 31.0 WS/162 was a shoo-in even without war credit, why not at least consider Keller, with a 152 OPS+ in 1170 games and a 30.0 WS/162 (although true, his war year stats are inflated)?

10. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in the 1930-1943 AL.

11. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, like Sam Rice, but with outstanding speed.

12. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons give him a big boost.

13. Lou Boudreau Why so much lower than the consensus, despite my regard for IF, and all of the sabermetric evidence in his favor? Probably the "comparison with peers at the same position" factor in my ratings. Not only was he a contemporary of Appling and Vaughan, but also strong upcoming SS candidates Pesky, Reese, Rizzuto, and Stephens.

14. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak.

15. Joe Medwick Back on my ballot. Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career.

1958 Ballot:

To quote Gene Wilder as Willy Wonka, “The suspense is terrible. I hope it lasts.”

1. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. Lou Boudreau - After looking at his hitting and fielding and adjusting for career length and the war, he lands behind Moore in my rankings.

8. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

9. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

10. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

11. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Billy Herman - Just ahead of Childs in my second base rankings.

14. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

15. Stan Hack – On my ballot for the first time. The war discount keeps him from being higher on my ballot.


Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.

Been away on Vacation all week but I returned just in time to get this year's ballot in. It will also be my last ballot from sleepy Central, Pa. as I move to NYC on Sunday.

1. Hughie Jennings (2, PHOM 1938) - The last time we had a backlog year and Hughie was not #1 on my ballot, Henie Groh was #1. Looking back that was a bit of a mistake. Not the part about Groh, but choosing him for #1 when Hughie was there as well. Have I mentioned that he has the best peak on the board by a healthy margin. Even though he only had five good years his 7 and 8 year totals are comparable to the best available as well.

2. Lou Boudreau (3, PHOM 1957) - Probably the closest thing to a favorite this year. I understand that his career was short and that he gets a little bit of a war discount, but he still had a very strong 7 year prime and a nice peak year or two. 120 OPS+ at SS with a top glove is enough to get a player #1 when Hughie is not around.

3. Wes Ferrell (5, PHOM 1956) - May not be the best pitcher on the board but I do believe he was the best player to have primarily played the position of pitcher. Great peak as a pitcher and a real asset at the plate as well, 100 OPS+.

4. Stan Hack (6, PHOM 1958) - I think that he was better than HOMer Heinie Groh who, as stated above, I supported. He was an OBP machine at a very underrepresnted position. Probably one the 10 best 3B ever.

5. Billy Herman (7, PHOM 1958) - Best 2B, barely edging Cupid Childs. Childs had a better peak, Herman the longer career and better prime. Childs played in a rougher era physically, but while the 1890's NL was a good league I dont' think it was as good as the 1930's and 40's NL. In other words, Herman and Childs are close.

6. Cupid Childs (9, PHOM 1939) - Best 2B of the 1800's in my view, though it is close. He had a nice peak and a good career for a MIer of the era.

7a. Willie Wells (PHOM 1958)
7b. Joey Medwick (8) - Wells barely beats out Medwick for my last PHOM spot this year. However, I am not against Medwick's election as are some others. Some say his career was not long enough but he has plenty of career WARP and WS. He had a roughly ten year prime, so it isnt' like he was only good for his three year peak. Does his peak stick out a little bit? Yes, but he certainly deserves credit for it nonetheless. He would be a little higher if I was convinced his peak isn't buoyed by his team's success in WS. Most likely a PHOMer very soon.

8. Hugh Duffy (10) - Best of the 1890's CF glut due to his outstanding peak. Probably desrves induction one day.

9. Dick Redding (11) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era and most likely one of the five best pure pitchers (Dihigo and Rogan get a lot of credit for their OF play) in black ball history.

10. Charlie Keller (12) - With WWII credit Keller has a great peak and a career that isn't woefully short. Am I his biggest supporter right now?

11. Bucky Walters (13) - I sorta see Bucky walters as similar to Ferrell and Dean, but where Ferrell was a great hitting pitcher and Dean a lousy one, Walters was decent. Of course there are more differences between them, but it isn't a bad way to look at things.

12. Earl Averill (14) - He had a great 10 year run as one of the 3 to 5 best OFers in the NL. With a little PCL credit, he may one day get in.

13. Dobie Moore (15) - The black Jennings, Moore is low because I am a little weary of giving him a lot of Wreckers credit. His peak wasn't as high as EE-YAH!'s.

14. Clark Griffith (nr) - He has been as high as #6 on my ballot so I feel good putting him back on. He is clearly the 4th best pitcher of the 1890's and the best 19th century pitcher we have yet to elect. Certainly better than Mickey Welch and his barely above average innings, 300 wins or no. Impressive 3.99 DERA for a 19th century guy.

15. Eppa Rixey (nr) - It came down to Rixey or Gordon but I decided on Rixey. I don't think he was as good as Ted Lyons, but he was in that mold. Lots of IP and he pitched then well.

16-20 Gordon, Doerr, Browning, Dean, GVH
21-25 Sisler, Oms, Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger
26-30 Mendez, Cravath, Brown, Willis, Mackey
31-35 Roush, Bell, LUndy, MOnroe, Ruffing
36-40 Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker, Johnson
41-45 Leach, R. Thomas, McGraw, Scales, Wilson
46-50 Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns, Taylor

Required disclosures

Redding - I see him as Rixey lite. There is really nothing terribly special about him.

Mackey and Bell are as low as they are because I don't see them ever being dominant players. Ditto Beckley.

Oh, Dizzy Trout is just outside my top 50, but that may be too high. He seems to have a nice peak but it is all based on one year. Am I missing anything?

7b. Joey Medwick (8)

Joey? :-)

BTW, happy belated birthday wishes to Howie. I was practically AWOL for this week here, so I didn't get a chance to say it earlier. I also liked reading that he's older than me, which is always a good thing to find out. :-D

To quote Gene Wilder as Willy Wonka, “The suspense is terrible. I hope it lasts.”

And Willy is paraphrasing Gwendolyn in The Importance of Being Earnest. She says almost exactly the same thing when Jack is offstage frantically and loudly searching for the handbag.

I've seen that line quoted several times and always have thought, "cool Earnest reference." Little did I know ... :-)

It's nice not having to place Beckwith's name near the top of my ballot anymore. :-)

BTW, another player is picked number one!

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).


1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): How did he make it to the top of my ballot? Weird, wild stuff. Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Stan Hack-3B (4): Amazingly, Stan wasn't a hacker! :-) Best major league third baseman for 1935, 1937, 1941, 1942, 1945 and 1946. Best NL third baseman for 1936.

3) Alejandro Oms-CF (5): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

4) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (n/e): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (6): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Billy Herman-2B (7): Probably better than Childs, but I'll leave him here for now. Best NL second baseman for 1932, 1935, 1936, 1937, 1938 and 1943.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (8): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (9): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Tommy Bridges-P (10): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

10) Jake Beckley-1B (11): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

11) Wally Schang-C (12): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Mickey Welch-P (14): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

14) Lou Boudreau-SS (15): After deductions for his WWII years, doesn't stand out as much as I thought he would. But there's not too many guys at his position who could both hit and field. Best AL shortstop for 1940. Best major league shortstop for 1947 and 1948.

15) Pete Browning-CF/LF (n/e): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

Medwick, Ruffing, Jennings, Ferrell and Mackey all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

1958 Ballot

I just arrived for good in Orlando and start the new job tomorrow…teaching at UCF. No new candidates on my ballot…but Jethroe and Brown deserve serious looks. I’m still puzzled on Hack…I see a lot of walks and top 100 in career OBP…but he played in the live ball 30s…I’ll try to study him further next week. I just moved everyone up on my depth chart. Ferrell is number 18.


1-Billy Herman 298 WS
Maybe overshadowed by a couple of other great second baseman during his 15 seasons but had a great career. Herman also missed a couple of seasons during the war years. He made a big difference when he joined the Dodgers early in ’41.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

3-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

4-Lou Boudreau 277 WS
Hurt by timing (war years)…but put it all together as a playing-manager.

5-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
He should make it in pretty soon. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

12-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

13-Joe Medwick 312 WS
There is room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

14-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

15-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

1958

1. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. (1927)

2. John Beckwith (3)--Another high peak, non-conventional major league player.(1956)

3. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Hughie Jennings (5)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

5. Cupid Childs (6)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Billy Herman (7)--I agree with those who see him as close to Cupid. I’ve got them in a dead-heat, with Cupid having the slightly better peak.

7. Tommy Leach (8)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

8. Clark Griffith (9)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

9. Stan Hack (10)--Another tight group with Hack, Doyle and Sisler.

10. Larry Doyle (11)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

11. George Sisler (12)--That’s a nice peak.

12. Cool Papa Bell (13)--That’s a lot of career value.

13. Eppa Rixey (14)--Him too.

14. Lou Boudreau (15)--He’s got a narrow peak edge on Sewell. They, along with Williamson, Doerr and bancroft are a very tight group of borderline infielders.

15. Joe Sewell (16)--Bit more career than Williamson. And WARP1 likes his peak better.

16. Ed Williamson (17)
17. Jose Mendez (18)
18. Carl Mays (19)
19. Red Ruffing (20)
20. Wes Ferrell (21)
21. Bobby Doerr (22)
22. Dave Bancroft (23)
23. Joe Gordon (24)
24. Roger Bresnahan (25)
25. Dick Redding (26)


Willard Brown jumps into the middle of the outfield glut at #28.

Sean,

John Beckwith has been elected! Should everybody just move up and Ed Williamson be added at #15?

My #1 and #11 were elected last week, and I have no new additions, so there's a lot of sliding up going on. I re-examined Lou Boudreau, who was not on my ballot last week, and he did not move up to a ballot spot. There is simply only 9 seasons where he had 500 PAs, and three of them were War Years. To get a vote, he'd need either a semi-Jenningsish peak, or an argument that his position is underrepresented. I see neither. As a result, Boudreau slips below all of the second base co-hort (Herman Doerr Gordon), and therefore out of the Top 20.

Red Ruffing is Coveleski plus worthless bulk innings. I understand why others would vote for that, but since I wasn't a Coveleski fan, I'm consistent here. Wes Ferrell is similar, but with a somewhat higher peak and lower career value. In the balance, I rank Ferrell below Ruffing.

Medwick there is nothing wrong with, I guess, but I just don't see him ever really becoming "great". If it weren't for Rixey and Beckley at the top of my ballot, I'd think I'm becoming more of a peak voter in my old age. Maybe I'm just becoming less and less impressed by slow accumulation of value in the outfield over the course of a decade.

Biz Mackey gets re-considered, and leapfrogs over a bunch to get the a ballot spot.

Finally, Jennings I don't have to explain any more also -- although the explanation would be obvious -- because he is actually on my ballot this week at #15.


1. Eppa Rixey (2) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Rixey could end up on the top of my ballot for a loooong time.

2. Jake Beckley (3) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top. On my "more uniquer" scale, failure to elect Beckley will make him the only member of the top 10 in triples (his is #4) to not make it. The next guy who won't make it is Sam Rice (#14)/ Ed Konetchy (#15). Beckley is Rice/Konetchy Plus, and deserves to be in another level.

3. Gavy Cravath (4) – Including high minors play, over 350 WS with a great peak.

4. Jose Mendez (5) -- Will Martin Dihigo become the only Cuban pitcher in the Hall of Merit? Mendez and Luque appear to be my main "lost cause" picks that are pulling down my Consensus Score. Great league with great pitchers. Relatively small league depresses stats (all teams are "All-Star" teams.

5. Mickey Welch (6) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented?

6. Stan Hack (7) -- the Ed Williamson of the 20th century? I missed the boat on at first, and it was in the process of describing why he was off that I realized he shouldn't by. This was actually Ernie Lombardi's spot, who could have otherwise dropped off without comment, but I was convinced by the arguments in the Lombardi thread -- especially those focussing on his GIDP numbers -- that he belonged along with Schang in the mid-to-low 20s.

7. Dolf Luque (8) -- See Mendez. I am the only vote for Luque, and I think it's because no one else is giving him "excluded for racism" points. Anyway, I think it would become obvious if the stat I was looking for existed, but apparently it doesn't. The stat I wish existed would be the opposite of the "Most Similar by Age" list, where you can now see that at 28, Luque was "Most Similar" to Otis Lambeth, a career 11-9 pitcher who pitched his final 7 innings at age 28. Thank you very much, I learned a lot. My new stat would be "Most Similar FROM Age", so that instead of looking at Luque's career from birt to age 28, you could look at it from Age 28 onward only. I can eyeball that he had about 3100 innings with an ERA+ of almost 120 from Age 28 onward, but it's hard to make his case without seeing who that is comparable to. Better than Red Ruffing, I'd say. More like Early Wynn, maybe. It's hard to eyeball, but that fact is that Luque made the Top 100 in IP despite being excluded from the Game for the first years of his career. Give him a few years of "Negro League equivalency," and Luque should be receiving a lot more than "one" vote.

8. Billy Herman (9) -- Usually, I only vote for Herman in even numbered years, but he looks like he's on the ballot for good after head to head examination with Doerr and Gordon (and now Boudreau).

9. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

10. Biz Mackey (off) -- long time studier, first time voter. I'm confortable enough to put him up here with Bresnahan, but not enough to consider him better.

11. Cupid Childs (12) -- More love for the 1890s.

12. Clark Griffith (13) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

13. Cannonball Dick Redding (14) -- Yet another second-best who is better than all the third-bests below.

14. Hugh Duffy (15) -- usually a 'tweener (on ballot one year, off the next). With an "elect 3" year keep him on for good?

15. Hughie Jennings (off) -- in my 16-20 group last year. As I dig down into it, I find myself more impressed with a guy who was truly great for a little while, over guy who were almost great for longer.


16-20: Averill, Doerr, Ruffing, Ed Williamson, C.P. Bell

Sean,

John Beckwith has been elected! Should everybody just move up and Ed Williamson be added at #15?

Until Sean responds, we'll need to skip it for now.

1958 ballot and the group is all over the place. Not a bad thing BTW just makes for some interesting debates. Many new folks in the top 15 – its more of a movement within the top 25 with some oldies moving into point collecting slots.

1. Lou Boudreau (3). Great D with productive bat. Maybe a glut of good SS in this period but he was amongst the ones we should honor.

2. Joe Medwick (2). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

3. Earl Averill (4). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and then three years in the PCL. By comparison to Bob Johnson, Averill had teams which outperformed Pythag W-L by 18 games (1929-39).

4. Clark Griffith (6). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

5. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. Hang in there big guy; I’ll try and convince others…

6. Dick Redding (8). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

7. Bobby Doerr (12). Him and Herman are probably close enough I wouldn't want to argue one way or the other.

8. Red Ruffing (11). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

9. Jimmy Ryan (--). Man will just not die from my ballot. Everytime he takes a couple of steps back there is likely a bounce back coming. Quality OF for extended time period.

10. Stan Hack (--). Probably a little too harsh on the third basemen in the rankings and this tries to rectify some of that.

11. Pete Browning (--). Jimmy Ryan, part II. He’s in the grey area of ballot worthy or not. Hitter of the greatest quality.

12. Biz Mackey (15). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost.

13. Edd Roush (--). Never a guarantee he would play in a given year but when motivated he was among the best.

14. Eppa Rixey (--). A nod to tilting my ballot toward pitchers a bit more.

15. Hughie Jennings (7). A peak to be proud of, especially for a SS. When you can be in the running for best player in the game in a certain time period that gives you a bonus. A rough style of play in during his heyday means careers were shorter.

16-20:Billy Herman, C.P. Bell, Berger, Van Haltren, Chance
21-25:McGraw, Mullane, Dobie Moore, Waddell, Poles
26-30:Leach, Childs, Byrd, Duffy, F. Jones
31-35:Cicotte, Bridges, Sewell, Mendez, Willis
36-40:Hack Wilson, Willard Brown, Roy Thomas, Veach, Grimes
41-45: Lundy, Taylor, Sisler, Beckley, Ferrell
46-50: C. Mays, Camilli, Gordon, Dunlap, Cravath

Top Returnees: Looks like I’m missing Herman and Ferrell. Herman and Doerr are close with a slight lean to Bobby not Billy. Ferrell hangs in the top 50 but I’m still not seduced by the hitting/pitching combo.

New guys: Willard Brown sees the light of day in the top 50 but not a super strong candidate to me. DiMaggio and Trout – took a glance, decided to move onto others.

32 ballots tabulated so far. Still missing ballots from: Al Peterson, Sean Gilman (we know his story), Kelly from SD, Chris Cobb (?), favre, the Commish, Devin McCullen, Dr. Chaleeko (?), Michael Bass, SWW, Andrew M, KJOK, jimd, Max Parkinson, Mike Webber, David C. Jones, Trevor P., Carl G, and Craig B.

Eric Enders has been taken off the list since he hasn't voted since Josh Gibson was elected.

BTW, I will be extremely strict with the deadline tonight. I wont count any ballots after 8 PM EST, including Joe's if he's tardy. The election is close enough that I don't want to be accused of favoring one player over another.

I see Al snuck in there when I wasn't looking. :-)

(Potential) new voter here. It's taken me a while to get up to speed since registering, but I think I'm ready to vote now. However, I realize I'm at the VERY end of the voting period here.

I know I'm supposed to post my prelim ballot on the discussion area for 1958 first, but I wasn't sure if anyone would see it in time. Should I do that anyway AND post a ballot here? Just here?

Or should I just take a deep breath and wait till next election, since I've screwed up the timing so badly?

Thanks...

I know I'm supposed to post my prelim ballot on the discussion area for 1958 first, but I wasn't sure if anyone would see it in time. Should I do that anyway AND post a ballot here? Just here?

Post it on the discussion page first. If everything looks okay, I'll cut-and-paste it here. I'll be keeping an eye out for it.

BTW, I hope you enjoy your time here!

I'm here, I'm here!!!!

I'll keep the commentary brief since I don't have much time til the deadline.

1. Hugh Duffy: Like the cream of the crop, he's risen to the top of this house of pain ballot.
2. Alejandro Oms: Top RF available.
3. JOe Medwick: Peaktastic.
4. jose Mendez: Ditto.
5. Gavy Cravath: With MLE credit, he's a slight notch below Medwick.
6. Leroy Matlock: Great peak-prime guy who helps my consensus score stay lo-to-middling.
7. Bucky Walters: In the Matlock-Ferrell family of hurlers.
8. Wes Ferrell: You could put these three in a hat and draw them out.
9. Geo J. Burns: Right there with the other two peakish RFs.
10. Pete Browning: Back on my ballot after a multi-decaded absence. REconsideration of his league environment gets him here. I overstated the discount for the AA.
11. Stan Hack: Better peak than Herman.
12. Billy Herman: Better career than Hack.
13a Ted Lyons.
13. Willard Brown: A tick better than Earl Averill.
14. Red Ruffing: Best long-career pitcher available for induction.
15. Hughie Jennings: Unlike other famed Jenningses, he didn't host the ABC news, nor serve in Pres. Wilson's cabinet, but was a great SS for five years.

Out there:
Quincy Trouppe is in the offing, but I haven't had time enough to get his bearings yet. He could be a very important candidate.

Dom DiMaggio is well down my CF list even with war credit.

Dizzy Trout is well down my P list, with or without wartime deductions.

So, in a year where the Dodgers are playing in California, they’re doing it without Jackie Robinson, and I’m voting to elect three candidates and none of them might be John Beckwith, I’ve decided to ride the wave of weirdness and re-think my ballot. A major impetus was Kelly from SD’s compilation of pitcher rankings, which I was going to do myself one of these days, so I’m grateful for the time saved. And I clearly needed the time, since I’m wordier than I’ve ever been.

1958 Ballot
1) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I have looked over the stats again and again, determined to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. And try as I might, I just can’t escape the conclusion that he’s the most meritorious guy on my ballot. So I’ve decided to stop fretting about it and just accept the fact that you’re all wrong in the head. A c.v. that includes a durable, Win Share-rich career, six “All-Star” appearances, terrific black and gray ink, four World Series appearances, and clever use of the spitball through not using it. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, 1952 Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3) Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Whenever I’m trying to decide how to assess players who have outstanding peaks and then hang on for several more seasons, turning in decent performances, I often think of Ken Griffey, Jr. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Sisler and Medwick are a good pairing. They’re both players with tremendous highs which define tend to define their careers, but lows that aren’t so low as to be invisible. I’m still trying to assess them properly. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5) Stanley Camfield Hack
The premier third baseman of his era. He seems like the kind of guy the folks in Cooperstown would have really liked. Odd.
6) Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
7) Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
I consider him to be the best catcher currently available for our consideration, and though his numbers are not as gaudy as Gibson or Santop, they are significantly greater than his Major League couterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
8) Howard Earl Averill
I’m going to go ahead and say I was wrong in allowing him to slip off the ballot. A startling eight times as one of the 10 best players in his league.
9) William Jennings Bryan Herman – “Billy”
I have the sneaking suspicion that I’ve been lowballing Mr. Herman. Getting more acclaim from the electorate than I might have expected. I’m giving him an edge over Joe Gordon due to the higher peaks.
10) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
I’m dropping him down because of my concerns about the lack of arc in his career. But I’m sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
11) Willard Brown
Another one of my characteristically cautious early rankings. Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot.
12) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
13) Louis Boudreau
Several great seasons, especially his job-saving 1948 performance. I’m willing to bet that I’m being overly critical of him because of his war years, especially since I’m going to cut Hal Newhouser so much slack. I don’t think I’m going to get to re-evaluate him, though. 71st on Maury Allen Top 100.
14) Edd J. Roush
Most responsible for kicking Joe Sewell back off my ballot. Another nice long career with good peaks out in center field.
15) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
After re-reading “Drysdale and Pappas” from The Politics of Glory, I’m better able to see the case made on his behalf. But I still wish he had more of a career. Probably in my hypothetical Top 30 now, whereas he was maybe in the Top 50 before.
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
All he's got to sell is an extraordinary peak, and I agree with the argument that this is what MVP awards are for. The most daunting statistic for me: five-year prime is over 70% of his career. Just can't do it.

"The City of San Francisco wanted to rename a modest little bit of parkland in the North Beach neighborhood as "DiMaggio Park" or "DiMaggio Playground" - something like that. There may have been some evidence that the DiMaggio boys played on this very land as kids. A lawyer representing the estate of the late Joe DiMaggio objected and threatened to sue........

Does anyone know the rest of the story? How did it turn out."

i was in San Fran not long ago and there is a small park in that area which I think is called "Joe DiMaggio Park." pretty sure it has the "Joe," not just the last name. don't know for sure if this is the one that was in dispute, but I'd assume so.

John Beckwith has been elected! Should everybody just move up and Ed Williamson be added at #15?

D'oh!

Yes indeed, everyone moves up one, with Williamson at #15. Sorry Tabulators!

Was at a wedding in balmy Orlando, thus the delay.

1) George Van Haltren (3). Another new #1! You know who he reminds me of? One of our favorite new toys, Alejandro Oms. Solid, consistent player in a tough, underrepresented era.
2) Stan Hack (6). Yo-yos back ahead of Rixey and Ruffing. Philosophically, his case is somewhat like Ruffing's hitting - a great deal of his value comes from being better than his competition at his position.
3) Eppa Rixey (5). Nonetheless, I've moved Rixey ahead of Ruffing as well. Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit.
4) Red Ruffing (4). Have decided WARP3 is overrating his hitting contributions. He's still the type of player I like, though.
5) Jake Beckley (7). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule.
6) Jimmy Ryan (new). Last week, I thought I'd be the one to revive Ryan's candidacy. Now I'm just one of the bandwagon, it seems. ;) Regularly garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.
7) Billy Herman (11). Also moves up. Outpeaks Boudreau, and tacks on three-four more years. Willie Wells playing 2B seems apt.
8) Wally Schang (8). Stalls, but is still one of my favorites. Once again, with feeling:

Schang: 6423 PA, 117 OPS+. OBP 44 points above league average.
Dickey: 7060 PA, 127 OPS+. OBP 29 points above.
Cochrane: 6206 PA, 128 OPS+. OBP 53 points above.
Hartnett: 7297 PA, 126 OPS+. OBP 23 points above.

9) Earl Averill (9). Beats Roush based on minimal PCL credit and league strength.
10) Edd Roush (10). I apparently love centerfielders. Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
11) Tommy Bridges (12). Aside from his rookie season (and the 29 innings tacked on to the end of his career) Bridges NEVER posted a below average PRAA.
12) Dick Redding (13). Like his career, especially when compared with recent NeL candidates like Bill Byrd and Hilton Smith.
13) Cupid Childs (14). Lots of value at a time when 2B had perilous, short careers. Like Herman, was underrating him.
14) Alejandro Oms (new). As a CF/RF who could take a walk, I like him much more than Willard Brown.
15) Wes Ferrell (15). Top peak candidate, in my opinion.

***

16) Clark Griffith
17) Bucky Walters
18) George Sisler
19) Joe Gordon
20) Lou Boudreau. His one HOM-level non-war season (1948) doesn't convince me that we shouldn't be discounting him from 1941-45. Trimming down his war years, I see Boudreau as an above-average player with one unexpectedly great season.
21) Biz Mackey
22) Larry Doyle
23) Joe Sewell
24) Eddie Cicotte
25) Bobby Doerr
26) Burleigh Grimes
27) Joe Medwick. See Chris Cobb's comments about Medwick and Win Shares' analysis of his peak. I stand by my Bob Johnson comparison.
28) Cool Papa Bell
29) Hughie Jennings. Not enough career.
30) Tony Lazzeri

Willard Brown. Have to adjust his walks upwards to get to a Medwickian level, which isn't ballot-worthy anyways. I'm cutting about 5-10% off the conversion rates in the assumption that it's possible he wouldn't have been able to make such an adjustment.

Dom DiMaggio. Behind (at least) GVH, Ryan, Roush, Averill, Bell, and one-half of Oms in my CF rankings.

1958 Ballot

Very difficult ballot. The two guys I think are most deserving go first, everyone after that is a toss-up.

1. (6) Billy Herman. Best of the 2B glut. Not inspiring maybe, but very solid peak and career numbers. Had a span between 1935 and 1943 in which he averaged 9.7 WARP per year. Win Shares don’t show much difference during their peak/prime between Herman and Doyle, but Herman played longer and is missing 2 war years.

2. (5) Clark Griffith. Another guy with good peak and career numbers. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his run between 1895-1901 is very impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

3. (3) Joe Medwick. I am troubled listing him this high, but he rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is saying something, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that.

4. (4) Earl Averill. For 10 years, Averill was one of the 3 best AL OFs—probably the best from 1934-36—who could both hit (133 OPS+/.297 EQA) and play A+ quality CF. Averill also has a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit if one is so inclined. Though he lacks anything comparable to Medwick’s 1936-37 peak, his value over a 7-10 year period looks similar to contemporary OFs like Medwick and Goslin.

5. (7) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

6. (9) Dobie Moore. Big jump this week as further consideration of Boudreau increases my appreciation for Moore and Jennings. Comparable peak at SS to Jennings, but a longer career. At his best, I think Moore may have been the best player on this ballot, and with a few years credit for his army years, his career seems as long as several other middle IFs under consideration.

7. (10) Lou Boudreau. Hard for me to place. Initially, I thought his 120 OPS+ and A+ defense at SS merited a high ballot spot, but then I worried that his career is no longer than Cupid Childs’s, and, per win shares, his peak level of performance, while good, isn’t head and shoulders better than some guys with longer careers (Herman and Hack, for example) and is not as good as Jennings and Moore (or Vaughan or Cronin.) And then you have the issue of discounting for the war. At his best, he seems to have been an HoM-worthy player, but whether his best lasted long enough is, for me, an open question.

8. (8) Larry Doyle. Best hitter of the middle infield glut. His career OPS+ (126 to 112) is better than Herman--but career was shorter and Doyle was almost certainly not as good a fielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and Gordon and Doerr because I think his peak was higher—though I realize this is not a view held by most voters. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. Defense? Well, WS shows him as a C+ fielder and that’s good enough for me.

9. (12) Geo. Van Haltren. Still nothing new to add. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak, career numbers. Even pitched decently. Win Shares makes him look like a clear HoM-er, other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

10. (11) Stan Hack. Excellent leadoff man who got on base a lot and ran well, Hack also played a difficult defensive position to at least a draw. Win Shares shows him with excellent career and peak numbers, and he was arguably a better player than his teammate Billy Herman. BRef most similar player=George J. Burns.

11. (13) Rube Waddell. Downgraded, perhaps unfairly, for unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

12. (14) Hugh Duffy. Duffy has career excellent peak/prime Win Shares, A+ quality OF defense, and good black and gray ink. On the other hand, his career is on the short side (7800 plate appearances) and he only has one season (1894) that really jumps out at you. In some ways, he strikes me as the 1890s version of Joe Medwick.

13. (25) Hughie Jennings. Five great years is carrying more weight with me this week.

14. (15) Biz Mackey. Deserves more serious consideration, but there are several other catchers you could say that about as well.

15. (17) George J. Burns. Averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could hit, run, and field, and rarely missed a game. Began his minor league career as a catcher, oddly enough.

16. Wes Ferrell
17. Edd Roush
18. Cool Papa Bell
19. Cupid Childs
20. Red Ruffing
21. Joe Gordon
22. George Sisler or Jake Beckley
23. Indian Bob Johnson
24. Pete Browning
25. Dizzy Dean
26. Bobby Doerr
27. Alejandro Oms
28. Joe Sewell
29. Tommie Leach
30. Wally Schang or Roger Bresnahan

Required disclosures:
Ferrell—Just off the ballot.
Ruffing—Probably should be up closer to Rixey, but I worry I may be overrating Rixey rather than underrating Ruffing.

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Once you give war credit, Dimaggio is not an awful candidate. He has some nice prime value. He's just outside of my top 50, along with the likes of Clift. Trout, even heavily discounting his 1944, I like, and he is currently 21, ahead of likely inductees in the near future Medwick and Hack, but not too much farther ahead. Trouppe I don't feel I know enough to rank yet. I'd like to see a Cobb workup on him. He could very well be top 50, but I don't think he's likely to be better than Mackey.

1. Lou Boudreau (2) - I'm a huge Lou fan. There are two arguments against him, one of which is understandable in my view, the other is not. The career length argument is not a good one; we have elected many players with productive careers of his length or shorter. The amount of war discount is a reasonable argument; I can't definately say how great those seasons actually were. But I do know his 1948 was an all-timer, that he was an A+ defensive SS by every measure we know, and that I can't imagine a discount that takes him below 115 OPS+ career. That, my friends, is a HOMer, and an obvious one.

2. Wes Ferrell (3) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

3. Hughie Jennings (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

4. Dobie Moore (5) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture). The comparison to Boudreau, moves him up this high. Dobie is so overlooked it's unbelievable.

5. Billy Herman (6) - Truly great all around play, both on the field and in HOM profile (peak, prime, career). The little things add up to a decent amount more than Hack.

6. José Méndez (7) - I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player. This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

7. Bobby Doerr (9) - This is the point of the big dropoff, after which I'm no longer sure anyone is a HOMer, and the next 20-30 slots are kind of a big jumble. Doerr is not, in view, close to Boudreau, but he was a great defender at 2B, and has something to like for all voters.

8. Red Ruffing (10) - I love these hitting pitchers if you can't tell. Just not enough peak to rank higher than this. I had him above Moore/Wells earlier, but I can't justify that at all now that I'm actually posting. Still, a good strong Lyons-style candidate in value terms.

9. Earl Averill (11) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

10. Bucky Walters (12) - Impressive peak and prime. Ruffing's career advantage trumps Walters' peak advantage in this case, because of war factors, which add slightly to Ruffing and subtract slightly more from Walters.

11. Dizzy Dean (13) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

12. Joe Sewell (14) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. His offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

13. Clark Griffith (15) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

14. Willard Brown (new) - For Williard, I compared him to Oms and Suttles. With reasonable war credit, he is clearly, though not substantially, better than Oms. I do not think he was as good as Suttles. Suttles was below this on my ballot, but a second look at him tells me I underrated him some. Anyway, he had a nice career once war credit is in, and some nice peak and prime as well.

15. Joe Gordon (16) - I like him a touch better than the group, though not that much. Seems like lots of folks have him top 20-25, and that's give or take about where I have him.. To me, he's basically Sewell lite once you add a touch of war credit. Not an overly long career or overly high peak, but all prime.

-------------------------

16. Bob Johnson (17) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

17. Dick Redding (18) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots.

18-20: Sisler, Browning, Mackey
21-25: Trout, Medwick, Hack, Oms, Shocker
26-30: Dunlap, Monroe. Matlock, Buffinton, Lundy
31-35: Williamson, Bartell, F. Jones, Waddell, Scales
36-40: Taylor, H. Smith, Passeau, Veach, Bond
41-45: Klein, Uhle, Poles, Byrd, Van Haltren
46-50: Harder, Warneke, Berger, Bell, Schalk

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Hack - Defense was below average, kept him from having a great peak. I do like him, #23, just not quite ballot worthy. Some discounting of his 44-45, too.

Medwick - Not as good as Bob Johnson in my view. Peak not as high as you might think, and career is shortish. How can he rank ahead of Sisler, who had a similar career shape, but a much higher peak? #22, nonetheless, he is not a terrible choice. Just not a prime one.

Mackey - #20. Mackey's career was really not all that long (minimal credit for the back half when he couldn't hit at all). But he had a nice prime in the first half, and was certainly an A catcher at a minimum. I do hope to vote for him someday, the backlog just keeps getting longer.

Rixey - You all know my feelings on him. The Beckley of pitchers, neither should be within miles of the HOM.

1958 Ballot

1. Clark Griffith (4). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
2. Hughie Jennings (5). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
3. Eppa Rixey (6). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the early 1960s. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
4. Wes Ferrell (8). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second?)
5.Billy Herman (12). A player about whom I knew nothing when this project began, but he was a very fine player. A lot like Willie Wells, actually, as he combined good offense and good defense in a long career, but he was a bit behind Wells in both peak and length.
6. Willard Brown (n/e). By his MLEs, he has a good argument to be #1 on this ballot: those numbers place him just a little bit below Buck Leonard, which seems reasonable for the #3 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s. I’m a little skeptical about the level of competition in the NAL, however, so I’ve dropped his first three seasons by 8% and the rest of his career by 3%. Even with that discount he still looks dead even with Herman and a touch better than Oms and Hack, so he starts at #6. More discussion could raise him up to where the numbers put him or drop him down a bit more.
7.Alejandro Oms (8). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. I think he’s the best outfield candidate eligible.
8. Stan Hack. (9) The best major-league third baseman between Heinie Groh and Eddie Mathews. Great plate discipline, acceptable defense.
9. Red Ruffing. (10) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
10. Biz Mackey (11). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
11. Edd Roush (12). Slips a little bit in the reevaluation of outfielders, but he was getting less of a bonus than Van Haltren and Leach, and was the best hitter of the three, so he retains his ballot spot.
12. George Sisler (13). Rises back up onto the ballot; his peak was truly outstanding, and long enough to matter a lot in my assessment of him.
13. Gavvy Cravath. (14) Makes my ballot for the first time, as I re-sort my outfielders and my 1910s rankings. In the 1910s rankings, Cravath replaces Doyle as the top candidate still unelected. Given that I had no support from WARP, I could no longer justify ranking Larry Doyle above where win shares put him in my system. He drops significantly, and Cravath jumps to the ballot.
14. Burleigh Grimes (15). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, as Grimes joins Rixey, Roush, and Cravath as representatives of that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 10 ballot spots.
15. Joe Gordon (16). With appropriate WWII credit, Gordon looks like the best of the 1940s borderline infielder group by a small margin at least by a win-shares based evaluation. He looks similar to Doyle, Childs, and Sewell, but he places higher in relation to his contemporaries than they do, so he ranks higher.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Lou Boudreau. See #19 below
Joe Medwick. See #25 below
Earl Averill. See #16 below

Off-Ballot

16. Earl Averill (17). I give him one season of PCL credit, which puts him clearly ahead of Medwick. He’ll probably get back on my ballot before he gets elected.
17. Jose Mendez. (19) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
18. Dick Redding. (20) Still paired with Mendez.
19. Lou Boudreau (23). His peak puts him above, but not far above, my in-out line.
20. Buzz Arlett. (21) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
21. Rube Waddell (22). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
22. Bobby Doerr (24). Not quite the impact player Boudreau was, but more consistent over the course of his career.
23. George Van Haltren (27). Right on the all-time in/out line for me.
24. Tommy Leach (26). Ditto.
25. Joe Medwick. (25). Overrated by the electorate, and I urge caution on him. I lean more toward the WARP view of him as good teams/pythagorean win share bonuses inflate his win share totals quite a bit. We have a number of outfield candidates with better records whom voters seem reluctant to support because of uncertainty about the value of their play outside of the majors: Oms, Cravath, Averill and Arlett deserve more support than they have received and should be ahead of Medwick in the election queue.
26. Cool Papa Bell (28). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MeL data is available.
27. Bill Byrd (28). Stongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak.
28. Rabbit Maranville. (30) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
29. Dizzy Trout. (n/e) A much better pitcher than I had realized. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but I could be wrong. I wish Chris J. would do an RSI study of him. WARP sees him as ever-so-slightly better than Bucky Walters, who I had been underrating. Both he and Walters have career value similar to Wes Ferrell, but Ferrell just blows them away on peak.
30. Bucky Walters. (42) Like Trout, almost but not quite a Homer.
31. Leroy Matlock (31). A a very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
32. Larry Doyle (33). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
33. Spotswood Poles . (34) Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
34. Carl Mays. (35) Wes Ferrell lite.
35. Urban Shocker. (36) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
36. Mickey Welch. (37) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
37. Hugh Duffy. (38) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
38. Jimmy Ryan
39. Roger Bresnahan
40. Wally Schang
41. Cupid Childs
42. George Scales
43. Dobie Moore
44. Charlie Keller (18). Study of the advantages win shares gives to players on good teams drops him considerably in my estimation this year. I’ll need to assess him carefully against Ralph Kiner soon.
45. Charley Jones
46. Ben Taylor
47. Jake Beckley
48. Dom Dimaggio (n/e). A fine player: great defensive outfielder and good hitter. But his career was not particularly long, and though he was consistently an above average player, his peak was not that high. A center-field version of Joe Sewell, whom he edges out in my rankings. This ranking doesn’t give him the year of PCL credit he probably deserves. He may move up when I factor that in.
49. Joe Sewell
50. Dick Lundy
51. Mel Harder. (30).
52. Waite Hoyt
53. Herman Long
54. Wilbur Cooper
55. Lave Cross
56. Tom York
57. Kiki Cuyler
58. Harry Hooper
59. Bobby Veach
60. Fielder Jones
61. Dolf Luque
62. John McGraw
63. Ed Williamson
64. Tommy Bond
65. Jim McCormick
66. Bob Johnson
67. George J. Burns
68. Jack Fournier
69. Bruce Petway
70. Bill Monroe
71. Dizzy Dean
72. Babe Adams
73. Mike Tiernan
74. Pete Browning
75. Sam Rice
76. Dave Bancroft
77. Frank Chance
78. Tony Mullane
79. Ed Konetchy
80. Addie Joss
81. Nip Winters
82. Wally Berger

Second try after losing my first attempt somehow.

1. Billy Herman (2) - With war credit we're looking at a 2B with 2600 career hits. He also had a league average walk rate and an above average SLG. One helluva player, as his five top-10 MVP finishes would suggest. I see him as quite similar to Lou Whitaker actually, though Herman hit for a higher average and Whitaker walked more and had a little more pop.

2. Eppa Rixey (3) - If a few things out of his control were different (like the elimination of WWI), Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer.

3. Jake Beckley (4) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

4. Red Ruffing (21) - Did very well in my revaluation. I wasn't giving him enough credit for his hitting, and I was underrating his pitching.

5. Gavy Cravath (5) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project. I've dropped him a bit this week, I think I may have been giving him a little too much extra credit.

6. Lou Boudreau (8) - Derek Jeter of the 1940s? Clearly ahead of Joe Sewell, and I have to slot him behind Herman as of now.

7. Charley Jones (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

8. Clark Griffith (9) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith? I've dropped Jones and Griffith below the three 1B this time.

9. George Van Haltren (12) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 30, very tough to evaluate.

10. Tommy Leach (11) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

11. Ernie Lombardi (13) - I was convinced that his OPS+ does overstate his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.

12. Bill Monroe (14) - I still really like this guy.

13. Stan Hack (10) - I feel like he should be higher, but I can't put him ahead of any of these guys. I think this guy would have been my favorite player if I grew up in the 1930s. He was the Buddy Bell of the 30s/40s, but significantly better (though his career was shorter). I see him as the high end of what Kevin Youkilis could someday be, if everything breaks right for him. It's amazing how many great 3B didn't get their careers off the ground until they were 24-25 years old.

14. Joe Medwick (15) - Has to rank ahead of Averill and Roush, at least based on MLB (I'm thinking of Averill's PCL credit).

15. Biz Mackey (16) - After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

Honorable Mention:

16. Cool Papa Bell (17) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?

17. Joe Gordon (18) - Clearly below Herman, clearly above the rest of the 2B pack.

18. Bobby Doerr (19) - Too close to call with Gordon right now.

19. Wally Schang (20) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.

20. Wes Ferrell (22) - Great pitcher (for a few years) and good hitter (for a pitcher). I wish I could get him higher, but I can't say I'd want his career over any of those ranked ahead of him. I think his hitting trumps Harder's career value, but it's close and could go either way.

21. Earl Averill (23) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher. How much PCL credit should I be giving him?

22. George Sisler (26) - I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.

23. Dom DiMaggio (n/e) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.

24. Joe Sewell (27) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. A little bump this week. The more I think about it, I think I'd take his career over Hughie's.

25. Hughie Jennings (28) - I'm feeling a little more career value oriented of late, Jennings obviously drops on those days. He's down a little more this week.

26. Willard Brown (n/e) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.

27. Jimmy Ryan (30) - Career not as impressive as I used to think but still a good player for a long time.

28. Mike Griffin (29) - a great defensive player. He could hit too. He's been forgotten here . . .

29. Hugh Duffy (31) - not quite as good as the glut above him.

30. Edd Roush (24) - Took a bit of a hit with my re-evaluation.

31. Ben Taylor (32) - had slipped off my radar. He's pretty close to Beckley, but this is a tight ballot. I ranking him above Roush as a compliment.

32. Dobie Moore (33) - Is this too low? Convince me I should have him higher.

33. Dizzy Trout (n/e) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. I didn't realize he was this good.

34. Mel Harder (25) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.

35. Vic Willis (34) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.

36. Dick Lundy (35) - Back on the radar. Not as good as Sewell.

37. Alejandro Oms (n/e) - Glad he's been brought back to the forefront, but I can't see ranking him any higher.

38. George Scales (36) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?

39. Charlie Keller (37) - Nice player, but I couldn't put him above Jennings could I? I will look at him more closely next week, but at best I could see him a little above Henrich.

40. Tommy Henrich (38) - I could see him higher, but don't ever see him elected.

41. Lefty Gomez (39) - Very nice career. Not as nice as Ferrell's. 177-114 RSI record, which is excellent. Too bad he didn't pitch longer.

OK. I'm here, I'm queer, I don't want any more bears. No, wait, that was somebody else. Anyway, I'll get a ballot in by 8. It might even be different than the one I put in the Discussion thread.

... and the ballots are streaming in!

(Cast)

Ballot for 1958

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.

1) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

2) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

3) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

6) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

7) B. HERMAN -- Moving up after checking the competition.

8) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

11) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

12) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

13) S. HACK -- Groh-lite.

14) E. AVERILL -- Giving a little bit of PCL credit.

15) R. MARANVILLE -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Tommy Leach, Hugh Duffy, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan,
20-23) Lou Boudreau, Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Gavy Cravath,
24-27) Ned Williamson, Ray Schalk, Joe Medwick, Bobby Doerr,
28-31) Joe Gordon, Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick,
32-35) Wally Schang, Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Roger Bresnahan,
36-38) Rube Waddell, Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,

20. Wes Ferrell (22) - Great pitcher (for a few years) and good hitter (for a pitcher).

Or for a shortstop. Or a catcher. Or a second baseman. A decent/average one for a third baseman.

Note to self for tallying purposes: jimd said F. Jones.

I now have 70 players receiving votes, which I think is a record. Anyone want to cast a vote for Berger? Or someone else not yet mentioned?

I now have 70 players receiving votes, which I think is a record.

Yes, it is, OCF.

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. STAN HACK, 3B. .631 OWP, 370 RCAP, 95 WARP1, 8,506 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. One of the few good hitting 3B of his era.

2. LOU BOUDREAU, SS. .603 OWP, 274 RCAP, 104 WARP1, 7,023 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Defense near Ozzie level plus he could hit.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP, 282 RCAP, 75 WARP1, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1910s means he should be in HOM.

4. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP, 346 RCAP, 103 WARP1, 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

5. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp may be Gary Carter.

6. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP, 271 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

7. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP, 263 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

8. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP, 459 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND best 3B between 1875-1900!

9. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

10. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP, 245 RCAP, 115 WARPP1, 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Probably best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

11. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons. Also similar to Mule Suttles, just with more deadball years in tougher parks.

12. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

13. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP, 354 RCAP, 104 WARP1, 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

14. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player.

15. EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.


LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp may be Gary Carter. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

RETURNEES:

BILLY HERMAN, 2B. .563 OWP, 298 RCAP, 117 WARP1, 8,641 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Hard to see him as higher than Childs.

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. .539 OWP, 234 RCAP, 107 WARP1, 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Falls just behind Billy Herman, who is just off ballot.

JOE GORDON, 2B. .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Herman and Doerr.

BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Goes to near head of the class of OF glut, but falls just short of ballot.

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP, 321 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.

JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Initially overrated Medwick, so he’s moved off-ballot.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP, 478 RCAP, 95 WARP1, 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP, 81 WARP1, 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, 118 WARP1, 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

RED RUFFING, P. 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Good for awhile, and could hit, but I’d vote for Ferrell or even Welch first.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception somewhat a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.

1958 Ballot: Wes Ferrell, Ted Lyons, and Bucky Walters (though there may be a recall election) make the PHOM.

1. Mickey Welch. PHOM: 1901. Best eligible pitcher. The weight of the evidence. Record against other HoM pitchers. Lack of run and defensive support in comparison with those same pitchers yet he produces a similar record. Most similar pitchers are HoMers or will be.

2. Charley Jones. PHOM: 1906. Great prime, peak. Career is obscured by shortness of seasons and from missing 2 whole seasons and part of a third over a dispute about pay that turned into blacklisting. Top 10 among all position players in 1878 (4th), 1879 (2nd), 1883 (7th), 1884 (1st), 1885 (3rd). If he had not been suspended at the end of 1880, he may have made the top 10 that year also. Including the blacklisted years, that is 8 straight years in the top 10, usually the top 5.

3. Pete Browning. PHOM: 1921. Great hitter. Very high prime, peak, and rate. Among position players: 1882 (1st), 1883 (4th), 1884 (5th), 1885 (1st), 1887 (2nd), 1890 (5th). OPS+ of 162 is highest among eligibles.

4. Charlie Keller. PHOM: 1957. Am I his best friend? I give credit for 1.75 seasons lost to the war and no credit for what he may have done if not for the back problems. Took walks, hit for power. One of the top 5 players in the AL in 1941, 1942, 1943, 1946, a top 15 player in 1940, top 20 player in 1939. 2nd highest OPS+ of 152. Huge peak and prime.

5. Wes Ferrell. PHOM: 1958. Great peak. Great prime. Missing out on several “best of” years due to Grove. Third best pitcher of the 1930s to Grove and Hubbell.

6. Hugh Duffy. PHOM: 1919. High peak and prime. Great fielder who came by his WS numbers honestly as he was a CF for only 1/3 of his career. He moved to left for Billy Hamilton. 5 years among top 5 position players in league. 7 years over 25 win shares. (8 if adjust for season length.) No white player has as many. GVH goes from 3 to 9 for season length adjustments.

7. Bucky Walters. Am I his best friend? Three years best in his league. One year as best player in the game. His peak score is very high, his prime is good, and his rate is better than many other candidates. I deduct about 12% from his war time achievements to find his prime/peak/career scores. Great black ink. No eligible pitcher was best in his league 3 times. 2nd in peak, 7th in prime, 6th in rate, 9th in career. In the All-Star Game 6 times, same as Ruffing. If you want to see the impact of the surrounding team on a pitcher compare Walters’ career numbers with Ruffing’s Yankee numbers. Similar innings pitched, ERA, ERA+, but much different results.

8. Earl Averill. PHOM: 1949. Extremely consistent. Not at DiMaggio levels, but 7 years over 25 WS is very rare among eligibles. Best CF b/t Speaker and DiMaggio. 9 time AL All-Star by WS.

9. Vic Willis. PHOM: 1942. The best of the Oughts pitchers not elected. 2 best in league, 2 times second.

10. Alejandro Ohms. Maybe overrating, but my system likes long high primes and Ohms has that in spades. 8 years with 25+ WS equivalent.

11. Willard Brown. Being cautious with him. Moved him down 3 spots from pure translation numbers. The translations make him out to be as valuable as Averill with a little longer career.

12. Burleigh Grimes. Benefits (as do all the pitchers) by my reevaluation of my standards for post 1920 pitchers. Had higher peaks than Rixey or Ruffing.

13. Dobie Moore. My top ranked shortstop. He gets some Army credit. An All-Star every full season.

14. Cupid Childs. PHOM: 1932. Returns to the ballot after a long absence. I don’t have time to give the full results of my research about middle infielders and thirdbasemen. Succintly, I looked at Childs, Jennings, McGraw, Doyle, Hack, Herman, Boudreau, Doerr, and Gordon and compared them to other players who were full-time at least 6 years (or so). The 1890s just destroyed second and third basemen. Shortstops to a lesser degree. Childs stands out above his cohort group by longevity and achievement more than any of the others so he gets a ballot position.

15. Wilbur Cooper. My reevaluation of pitchers boost him slightly. Long, consistent prime with higher peaks than Rixey and Ruffing. Many all-star apps and top 10s in league pitchers.

Still on the bench.

All the other middle infielders:
These players are all very close and there was not one player who had enough to separate himself from the others sufficiently that I could justify a spot on the ballot to one, but not another. Therefore none of them go on and they give spots 16-35 a middle infield heavy feeling (along with Dick Lundy, Bill Monroe, and Tommy Leach.)

Gordon: Best in majors 6 times over Herman and Doerr. May have been 8 without WWII.

Herman: There were lots of good second basemen b/t 1930-1950: Frisch, Gehringer, Robinson, Gordon, Doerr, and many others with good, long careers – Cuccinello, Frey, Myer, Priddy, Stanky, Lazzeri, and Schoendienst (and that is not all.) Only once was the best.

Jennings: Had the achievement, but not the longevity. It was not hard for a shortstop to remain healthy in the 1890s. There were 6.5 regular shortstops who were more durable (George Davis is half at third, half at short.) Jennings just missed time because he chose to get hit by pitches.

Doyle: Similar situation to Ferrell and Grove. If not for Eddie Collins, would have been the best second basemen in the majors 5 times. Instead, only never.

Hack: Best white third baseman between Baker and Bob Elliott or Eddie Mathews. 5 times best in majors. 1 other time best in league. 5 second places in league. But not great competition.

Boudreau: Outside of the 1948 season, there is very little difference between him and other good shortstops in the AL. During the 1940s, AL SS included Appling (40-43, 46-49), Rizzuto (41-42, 46-54), Pesky (42, 46-47, 51), Stephens (42-50), and Joost (47-52). Years in () are years as regulars. There were lots of good shortstops who could hit and field. Discount for WWII years.

Doerr: Gordon was better. Since he doesn’t make the ballot, neither does Doerr. His basic statistics were helped tremendously by Fenway. Real wins resulted (look at Boston’s home record throughout the decade) but there is a reason they were average at best on the road.

McGraw: Lack of longevity at third. No one was a regular for long at third in the 1890s, but even in comparison, McGraw was not durable.

Medwick: In the top 25. Benefits greatly from Cards being better than their pythag records. Interesting debate between Value and Good.

Beckley: Played forever. Did not contribute much to his teams. If he played for bad teams, but was really good, he should usually be the best player. He wasn’t. I’ll repost some of my Beckley posts later.

Griffith: He doesn’t have the inning amounts that other 90s pitchers do. Lack of big years hurts.

Mackey: Victim of the middle infielder research.

GVH: Still between 16 and 20. Lack of peak.

Ruffing: Between 25 and 30. Was a good pitcher. Lack of peak compared to other 30s pitchers – Grove, Hubbell, Ferrell, Dean, and Walters.
Pitched worse than other Yankee starters against 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams.
Gomez was as good during their Yankee careers.
Was not spotted against the better teams/ better pitchers like Whitey Ford was later on. He was a slightly better than average Yankee pitcher who could hit and benefitted from a great defense and a great home park factor.

Rixey: No peak. Long career. Low prime. See definition for players who do not do well in my system.

John--

Just posted my prelim (and hopefully real, if approved) ballot on the discussion page. Hope that works OK!

Looking forward to being part of this as it continues, after lurking for a while!

(Kelly from SD)
15. Wilbur Cooper.

That's 71. Mike Webber voted for Berger last year (So did Al Peterson, but Al changed his mind). Mike?

Just sliding in under the wire – Herman, Ferrell and Hack make my PHoM.

1. Billy Herman (3) It does seem odd that he piled up such high WARP numbers with a pedestrian OPS+, but the Win Shares are pretty good as well. Could be a bit high, but to me looks like the clear best at 2B. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Tommy Leach (4) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

3. Stan Hack (7) Very close to Leach for me, but falls just short. I lean more towards career, and with a cutback for wartime, Leach definitely has the advantage. Makes my PHoM this year.

4. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Might be better than Herman, but there isn't enough evidence there for me to feel certain about that. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Wes Ferrell (6) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. Makes my PHoM this year.

6. Lou Boudreau (9) I can see the reasons to be cautious, but among the shortstops he stands out on both sides of the ball. I honestly can't see how you can have Doerr or Gordon ahead of him, even with a war penalty.

7. Dick Redding (10) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. I'm not sure the teens need many more pitchers, but better him than Rixey, or one of the hard-to-discern 30's OF.

8. Willard Brown (new) On the one hand, I’m not really sure he belongs. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the other OF on the ballot. Hopefully we’ll have more time to think about it.

9. Red Ruffing (8) I might have been overrating him, hard to be sure. Need to consider his argument more carefully

10. Earl Averill (11) His record appears close to the old CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. The closer I look, the less certain I feel about this, though.

11. Joe Sewell (12) While I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). They're not that far apart to me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

12. Cupid Childs (14) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Gordon, and is clearly behind Herman. Made my PHoM in 1932.
(13A Bill Terry)
13. Joe Medwick (12) It's hard for me to see much difference between him, Averill and Johnson. It may come down to whether you trust WS or WARP, and I try to look at both, so I wind up confused.

14. Bob Johnson (17) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. If you compare his WS to Medwick’s when they were both playing, he’s only 13 WS behind, and a good bit of that may be due to team quality. He’s ahead in WARP.

15. George Van Haltren (15) Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy.
(15A Max Carey)

16. Alejandro Oms (18) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
17. Cool Papa Bell (20) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
18. Biz Mackey (19) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
19. Ben Taylor (21) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
20. Gavvy Cravath (22) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
21. Jose Mendez (20) Great peak, but I still think Redding's distinctly better.
22. Jake Beckley. (25) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
(22A Sam Thompson, 22B Rube Foster)
23. Eppa Rixey (24) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, but his numbers are impressive. Doesn't do great in my pitcher ranking system, but I'm not sure why.
24. Bobby Doerr (23) Could be a little low, but he's clearly behind Herman on career and peak. I'm not really sure why his WS/WARP totals come out so much better than Gordon's, so I'm not putting him much above him.
25. Dick Lundy (26) Close to Sewell, but doesn't quite get there.
26. Bucky Walters (30) Could move up some more, but it's hard to seperate him from Dean.
27. Jimmy Ryan (28) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident.
28. Joe Gordon (29) I see his value as pretty close to Childs', but Childs was the best 2Bman of the 1890s, and Gordon isn't definitively the best of the 1940s (although James picked him)
29. Rube Waddell (27) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
30. Hughie Jennings (31) After comparing him with Boudreau, it's clear I had knocked him lower than needed. Major SS reevaluation coming in the near future.

This is Mark Donelson's ballot:

New voter here (if approved); here's my prelim ballot:


I’m a pretty firm peak voter, though a really strong career argument can sway me as well. Still, I’m mostly peak...as if you wouldn’t be able to tell that by my first vote.


1. Hughie Jennings. Four incredible seasons. Yes, there’s not much else, but when the four years are this good, especially given his exceptional fielding, that’s enough for me.


2. Billy Herman. The best of the crowded 2B field remaining, in my opinion by a decent margin. For his position, his peak/prime is pretty impressive, and his career numbers are hard for even me to argue with. (Besides being a peak voter, I have a middle infield weakness. Or do I mean strength?)


3. Rube Waddell. I’m very high on Waddell, just starting with his PRAA.When you stack him up against Ferrell, it’s almost like a miniature peak-career fight, with Waddell as the peak-within-peak guy (at least with OPS+). For me, the strikeouts and the immense peaks make him an easy choice.


4. George Sisler. Yes, he’s definitely way overrated historically. But I don’t want to penalize him for not being as good as his reputation, or for playing when he was no longer all that good a player. He was one of the top few hitters in the league for a decent amount of time, and that gets him a good spot on my ballot.


5. Wes Ferrell. The peak, the prime, and the remarkable hitting get him in for me. I don’t think he was quite as dominant as Waddell at his best, but he extended his really valuable years longer than Waddell.


6. Stan Hack, 3B. He’s not my typical kind of candidate, but his numbers are hard to argue with. Good if small peak, great prime, and solid career. At his position, in this period, that’s a rarity.


7. Joe Medwick. Incredible peak player; the great career tailoff. I was inclined at first to put him higher, but the lack of just about anything beyond the great peak--not even defense--drops him for me to this level.


8. Dobie Moore. I’m still feeling my way on the Negro League players who aren’t blatantly obvious (all of whom you’ve already elected). But I go for Moore’s great peak of six great seasons, plus stellar defense, by all accounts.


9. Hugh Duffy. Another peak favorite. One of the top few players in the game for at least five years; that, along with his defense (at least per WS), is good enough for me to put him at the top of the CF glut.


10. Biz Mackey, C. Someone made the “Just a Friend” joke already, so I’ll spare everyone. Cochrane-lite, it would appear, and while the second half of his career isn’t terribly good, the first half is remarkably strong, by all appearances. That, for a catcher, is enough to earn my vote.


11. Dizzy Dean. Again, PRAA sells me on Dean. I know there’s nothing but peak here, and it’s even shorter than Jennings’s, really (only two years when he’s clearly the best around). But that peak, that peak…it’s too good for me to ignore.


12. Lou Boudreau. If his peak other than the 1948 season wasn’t ALL during the war years, I’d be more inclined to put him high up; he did have 9 really good years as among the best defensive shortstops ever. But since 3 of those 9--some of the best of the 9--are a bit inflated, his case falls a bit. That one peak year is pretty great, though, especially given the defense. Not close to Jennings’s peak, though, so he doesn’t get to the top half of my ballot..


13. Cupid Childs. Another guy with a short-career problem. And he has neither the stratospheric peak of Jennings nor his great defense. I don’t think the peak he does have is enough to get him into Billy Herman territory at this position, but he deserves to be considered a reasonably strong candidate.


14. Earl Averill. The peak is good, the prime excellent, and the defense strong. That pulls him onto my ballot as my second member of the CF group (the others are mostly crowded just off-ballot).


15. José Méndez. If the estimates are remotely on target, this guy was something else. years of 30-40 WS as a peak is pretty strong, and he did have value otherwise, though the brevity of his stardom is something of a downer for him. He just sneaks on.


Required explanations:


Red Ruffing: 24th. Just not enough peak for me. Frankly, not really enough career either; he kind of falls into the cracks between, and the prime’s not impressive enough for me to put him higher.


Eppa Rixey: 20th. Great career, but again, not enough peak for me. Some great years, but not great enough to get past the other pitchers.


Clark Griffith: 32nd. Not-quite-great peak, not-quite-great career.


Jake Beckley: 28th. The Clark Griffith of hitters; he just seems peakless. Very good for a long time, but never much more than very good.

Making it just under the deadline...haven't voted in many a year, but a vacation and an overhaul of my rating system have allowed me to catch up. Win Shares is my metric of choice. I apply a timeline adjustment, a defensive adjustment and positional bonus. I score player seasons the same as Clay Davenport is doing for his Hall of Fame Project at Baseball Prospectus, best season x14, 2nd x9, 3rd x8, 4th x7, 5th x6, 6th x5, 7th x4, 8th x3, 9th x2, 10th onward x1. This is a system which emphasizes peak and prime. For war credit, I do an unweighted average of the two previous seasons and the two subsequent seasons.

Without further ado...

1. Willard Brown (379 WS) - I used Chris Cobb's Medwick projection as the basis for this ranking. His war credit for '44 and '45 is 25 WS/season.

3 seasons above 30 WS
7 seasons above 25 WS
12 seasons above 20 WS

2. Joe Medwick (309 WS) - Brown's brother from another mother.

3 seasons above 30 WS
3 seasons above 25 WS
9 seasons above 20 WS

3. Earl Averill (354 WS) - Get PCL credit from '26 to '28.

4 seasons above 30 WS
9 seasons above 25 WS
13 seasons above 20 WS

4. Jose Mendez (250 WS) - What a peak!

4 seasons above 30 WS
5 seasons above 25 WS
6 seasons above 20 WS

5. Biz Mackey (283 WS) - League-average hitter, great defense, long career, catcher bonus. I guess you can say I'm just a friend.

0 seasons above 30 WS
1 seasons above 25 WS
3 seasons above 20 WS

6. Lou Boudreau
7. Dobie Moore
8. Quincy Trouppe
9. Edd Roush
10. Roger Brenahan

11. Billy Herman
12. Stan Hack
13. Hugh Duffy
14. Alejandro Oms
15. Gavy Cravath

Top 10 players off ballot
18. Hughie Jennings - I'm a big supporter, but he gets crowded out.
30. Wes Ferrell - Toward the top of the pitching crop, but the pitchers on the ballot are pretty weak.
49. Red Ruffing - Low peak can't be overcome with long career.

The election is now over. I would have had the results posted in a couple of minutes, but I had a few procrastinators that screwed me up. :-)

07:59 PM

ooooh.... just made it. :-)

One comment I forgot to add RE: Quincy Trouppe:

I used Dr. Chaleeko's WS projections for Trouppe and under my system, he would have been #1 by a country mile, with the difference between him and #2 about the same as between #2 and #15. There are two reasons I knocked him down to #8:

1. Projected Career Length - With his time on the Bismarck team added in, he is projected to somewhere over 10,000 career PA. This would be the more than any other catcher in MLB history.

2. Comtemporary Opinion - I haven't seen anything that would indicate he was thought of as a better player than Mackey.

If Chris Cobb's projections are more of the same, then Trouppe will go to the top of my ballot.

Welcome back, James, er, I mean, Flaxseed! :-)

Obviously, Mark, your ballot past the test (even if karlmagnus would have failed you :-) Hope you vote many more times in "years" to come!

BTW, that was a close one for you two and Mr. McCullen!

Welcome Mark. Good to have you aboard.