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Monday, August 29, 2005

1959 Ballot

Newbies: Satchel Paige, Johnny Mize, Bob Elliott, Dutch Leonard, Bobo Newsom, Harry Brecheen, and Max Lanier.

Top-ten returnees: Joe Medwick, Hughie Jennings, Red Ruffing, Biz Mackey, Wes Ferrell, Earl Averill, and Eppa Rixey.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 29, 2005 at 02:13 PM | 100 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 29, 2005 at 02:23 PM (#1581713)
hot topics
   2. karlmagnus Posted: August 29, 2005 at 03:17 PM (#1581796)
I went Mize/Paige, as Paige is just a smidgen less good than his reputation, but they both deserve the “elect me” spots. Dandridge was another Cool Papa Bell – reputation exceeds reality – only both are lower than Bell’s, so he’s off the bottom. Elliott needs a discount for the war years, so is only a little above Hack (who was last on this list in 1958). Leonard 191-181, minus war discount just not impressive – what was he DOING for 20 years in the bigs? Newsom might be tempting, but war discount and he lost more than he won, with ERA+ only 107 (Grimes minus minus, I think.) Nicholson only 1,484 hits, even playing throughout the war.

1. (N/A) Johnny Mize 2011 hits, 158 OPS+, and 3 years missed for the war – what’s not to like? TB+BB/PA .607, TB+BB/Outs .984

2. (N/A) Satchel Paige Not quite his reputation, not quite Smokey Joe Williams, but a HOMer nonetheless.

3. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

4. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

5. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-7-7-6) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

9. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: August 29, 2005 at 03:18 PM (#1581798)
11. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

12. (N/A-10-9) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754.

13. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, even if some of it was during the war years. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

14. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

15. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13-12) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.


16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-14) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-15) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Joss stopped him getting back on the ballot now, he’ll return shortly.

18. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits.

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

23. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
24.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
25. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
26. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
27. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
28. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
29. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
30. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
31. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
32. (N/A) Heinie Manush
33. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
34. Earl Averill. Fairly well off my ballot, and I think the team are giving him too much minor league credit. In the real world, 2019 hits at an OPS+ of 133 doesn’t get him close to the HOM. Not as good as Tiernan.
35. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
36. (N/A) Dick Lundy
37. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.
38. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
39. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
40. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
41. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
42. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
43. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
44. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
45. Kiki Cuyler
46. Deacon McGuire
47. Jack Quinn
48. Tony Mullane
49. Pye Traynor
50. Jim McCormick
51. Dick Redding
52. Joe Judge
53. Edd Roush
54. Spotswood Poles.
55. Larry Doyle
56. Roger Bresnahan.
57. Wayte Hoyt.
58. Joe Gordon.
59. Harry Hooper.
60. Jules Thomas.
61. Wilbur Cooper
62. Bruce Petway.
63. Jack Clements
64. Bill Monroe
65. Jose Mendez
66. Herb Pennock
67. Chief Bender
68. Ed Konetchy
69. Bob Elliott. War years discount drops him to here – short career. TB+BB/PA .502, TB+BB/Outs .770 would have him up around Childs otherwise – it’s a tight ballot after about #10.
70. Jesse Tannehill
71. Bobby Veach
72. Lave Cross
73. Tommy Leach.
74. Tom York
   4. ronw Posted: August 29, 2005 at 03:41 PM (#1581834)
1959 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Satchel Paige Easy.

2. Johnny Mize Easy again.

3. Pete Browning I have been convinced that he was more unique than Redding, and thus deserves a higher spot. Failing to electing Pete seems to me like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

4. Dick Redding I’m probably the biggest supporter this ballot, although Gadfly is close.

5. Cupid Childs Seems far ahead of all eligible 2B, including Gordon.

6. George Sisler OK, he didn’t put up the late career numbers that other players playing in his parks theoretically would have. He still put some decent numbers, and played every day.

7. John McGraw Mugsy’s RCAA domination of the rough-and-tumble 1890’s, combined with his head-and-shoulders status above all other 3B tells me we missed him. I should have listened to KJOK earlier. I’m not sure why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

8. Hugh Jennings Packed more into his five years than many SS’s do in a career.

9. Dobie Moore I think these two should be above Boudreau because their peaks were higher and longer, and they were equally good fielders. Jennings also does not have the league issues that plague the other two.

10.Biz Mackey I think we may be missing some offense. A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a bit lower peak.

11. Roger Bresnahan Best available catcher, by a good margin.

12. Wes Ferrell Fine pitcher peak.

13. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

14. Bill Monroe The 2B glut is rivaling the CF glut.

15. Ben Taylor I think he has been overlooked.


Joe Medwick – Surprisingly behind contemporary Bob Johnson.

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good.

Earl Averill – A bit more than Hack Wilson and George Van Haltren, but not quite enough to vault him on the ballot. It is getting hard for outfielders to accumulate the career stats to make my ballot.

Bob Elliott – Compares favorably to Stan Hack and Heinie Groh, but a smidgen less value under my system.

Dutch Leonard – Surprisingly better than his namesake.

Bobo Newsom – Fine peak, not enough outside.

Harry Brecheen – We’re getting to the 40’s Cardinals pitchers, it’s a matter of time before we hit Stan the Man.

Max Lanier – A nod to a fine pitcher.
   5. TomH Posted: August 29, 2005 at 04:26 PM (#1581927)
1959 Ballot
(an easy year to vote early without qualms)
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

With three infielders being elected last ballot, my backlog of pitchers moves even higher.

1-Satchel Paige {new}
Warren Spahn with the flair of Fernando Valenzuela and loved like the media fawned over Pete Rose, circa 1980.
2-Johnny Mize {new}
The Big Cat’s MEOW! My #3 all-time first sacker (after Lou and the Beast) by a nose over a large field.
3-Clark Griffith (1) [11]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other eligible player in our backlog.
4-Wes Ferrell (3) [8]
Career ERA of 4.04, but compares well to the league/park average ERA of 4.72. Then add in the huge bat.
5-Bucky Walters (6) [27]
Hidden greatness? Faced strong opponents, didn’t have many gold glovers behind him, pitched real well and hit well too. Take your time, guys, but don’t worry, you’ll warm to him eventually :)
6-Joe Sewell (7) [22]
What is there NOT to like about him? He hit great for a shortstop, for any time period, not just his. He fielded great too.
7-George Van Haltren (8) [15]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
8-Red Ruffing (9) [6]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats. Yes, his teammates helped him a lot, but Win Shares and WARP are SUPPOSED to account for that, right?
9-Cool Papa Bell (10) [19]
If I envision the basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability of a Willie Mays, Bell comes out as a HoMer, even with a mediocre bat. And that’s what his rep makes him out to be.
10-Biz Mackey (11) [7]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here, above Roger B, with whom he looks comparable if you end Mackey’s career in 1932. Too many people thought Mackey was too good to leave him off my ballot.
11-John McGraw (12) [41]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
12-Earl Averill (13) [9]
A bit of credit for his PCL yrs. Compared to GVH, hit a bit better, fielded about the same, slightly shorter career, didn’t pitch.
13-Joe Gordon (14) [29]
Well, now that I have his Win Share rate correct, he’s on my ballot.
14-Eppa Rixey (15) [10]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
15-Willard Brown (off) [24]
Looks like a very good comp for Averill.

The four 1Bmen (Easter-Beckley-Chance-Sisler) have the inside track to gain my next ballot spot.

Required Disclosures:
Joe Medwick [4] … career is a lot like Indian Bob, who finished 37th! Do we send him to the HoM based on one triple crown year? Not in my top 20.
Hughie Jennings [5] ….peak only, and my system doesn’t credit peak as much Not in my top 20.

Others between #16 and #38:
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep; could he have played shortstop?
Cupid Childs …fine hitting second sacker, and playing IF in the 1890s was tough.
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Bobby Doerr ….a lot like Gordon
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Roger Bresnahan ...Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Dobie Moore …peak/prime shortstop
Bill Monroe …reasonable argument as best NeL 2Bman.
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NeL OFer
   6. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 29, 2005 at 04:59 PM (#1581960)
Tom H,

Just a quick query: you like Mackey and Schang, how about Trouppe?
   7. TomH Posted: August 29, 2005 at 05:31 PM (#1581982)
Dr C, thanks for asking. My short answer is I plead info overload and lack of time for a guy who off-the-cuff didn't look ratable. Maybe I'm wrong, and it shows that occasionaly a simple contructive challenge (hey, ___, did you forget about ____) is a Very useful thing in this project!

My lonegr answer is
a) I'll look at him again, and
b) I rank NeLers (Cuba, Mexico, etc) on about 30% and 70% numbers. This helps Mackey move above Schang and Bresnahan (otherwise he would not), but not Trouppe. Schage DOES seem a reasonable comp at first blush.
   8. TomH Posted: August 29, 2005 at 05:32 PM (#1581985)
** he would not), but not Trouppe. Schang DOES seem a reasonable comp at first blush.**

Schang, not Schage. Too much of a hurry :)
   9. TomH Posted: August 29, 2005 at 05:33 PM (#1581986)
man, must proofread better :(

b) I rank NeLers (Cuba, Mexico, etc) on about 30% REPUTATION and 70% numbers.
   10. yest Posted: August 30, 2005 at 12:30 AM (#1582901)
1958 ballot
Mize and Paige make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Johnny Mize (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Satchel Paige(makes my personal HoM this year)
5. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
8. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
20. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21. Hilton Smith see his thread
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
28. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
29. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
32. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
33. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
34. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Hugh Jennings not enough career
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Earl Averill is just off my ballot
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   11. Howie Menckel Posted: August 30, 2005 at 02:54 AM (#1583271)
1959 ballot, our 62nd
voting early this week

Recent discussions have further convinced me that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.
Looked closely for last year's ballot at the top 13 Ps, INFs, and 1B-OFs, for a total of 39. Some revisions this year off further review.

1. SATCHEL PAIGE - Yes, it takes him a lot longer into this career to get to this slot than most of us first would have imagined. But he gets there. Best pitcher on the 1952 Browns at age 45. Muddy middle career, but don't let it fool you.
2. JOHNNY MIZE - 156 or better OPS+ in his FIRST TEN SEASONS, and he lost three to the war in the midst of that. Incredible.
3. EPPA RIXEY - Matches Ruffing in top 3-4 years except for hitting credit; then slowly but surely maintains an advantage. WW I credit as well. Am now more comfortable than ever putting Eppa in an 'elect me' slot.

4. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular:
152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Amazing. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went, it's only he who lasted.
5. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in the ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument that his best season was better than George's, but it's debatable and too many voters are using other systems that work against Sisler. Guess I'm a contrarian.
6. CLARK GRIFFITH - I stiffed him last year, as a 12 because I forgot 1892-93 credit. It's that close. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
7. RED RUFFING - Moved up in my rankings last year, a little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
8. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the crap out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s. A full-length career for the brutal era as well.
9. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
10. WES FERRELL - Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done.
11. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of career shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that.
12. BOB ELLIOTT - Slots in right where I had Hack; I guess others won't do the same. Seven seasons with 123 or better OPS+ as a 3B, ok two are war discount. 124 OPS+ in 8190 PA, mostly as a 3B. Would move up if Ps weren't so underrepresented.
13. COOL PAPA BELL - Allowing for park and steals leading him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd be in the HOM a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
14. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by the review. Very nice 5, 8 10-year numbers.
15. MICKEY WELCH - Sneaks back ahead of Mendez this year. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance wasn't there.

JOSE MENDEZ - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings. Tiny positional bonus gets him on.
RUBE WADDELL -Finally back on my radar based on astounding four-year ERA+s (179-79-65-53), but was the anti-Griffith. HOM-quality stuff, but unearned run totals suggest a guy who unraveled easily.
BOBBY DOERR - Full-length career, too, but I have a huge problem with his only great year being a war one. Noses Gordon only on fielding; anyone claim Gordon could pick it like Doerr?
JOE GORDON - Was 14th two yrs ago. A bit underrated, another with seven years of 120 OPS+ if you give him one for the war.
HUGHIE JENNINGS - 13th two yrs ago. I've voted for him dozens of times, but fresh look hurts him. Fifth year is only OK, sixth year worthless and seventh year worse than that.
EARL AVERILL - A rare clear example for minor league credit, it lifts him several notches here but not quite above Medwick (boy, is it close).
ALEJANDRO OMS - I refer to him as a 'Bernie Williams' in his thread. I love his ability to match or outhit several HOMers in competition together, so ability is there. A little leery on career length, so for now he's here.

BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread - Sisler, one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career; McGuire, played forever as a C but not always that often, or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others.
   12. sunnyday2 Posted: August 30, 2005 at 03:31 AM (#1583396)

1. Big Jawn Mize (new, PHoM 1959)--one of the most underrated players of all-time, at least by the BBWAA and the Coop HoF.

2. Satchel Paige (new, PHoM 1959)--a bit overrated but an easy HoMer nonetheless.

3. Hughie Jennings (1 lat year-2-1, PHoM 1927)
4. Dobie Moore (2-3-2, PHoM 1942)--the white Dobie Moore and the black Hughie Jennings. The two highest peaks available among position players.

5. Joe Medwick (3-4-4, PHoM 1954)
6. George Sisler (4-5-5, PHoM 1938)--the two great candidates whose position is that of "hitter."

7. Tommy Bond (5-6-7, PHoM 1929)
8. Rube Waddell (6-7-8, PHoM 1932)
9. Jose Mendez (7-8-9, PHoM 1957)
10. Addie Joss (11-12-13)--the four great peak pitchers.

(7a. Lou Boudreau)
(9a. John Beckwith)--possible PHoMers in the next few years.

11. Ed Williamson (12-13-14, PHoM 1924)--pretty much interchangeable with Stan Hack.

12. Willard Brown (10-new)--one could wish that Luke Easter had his NeL career, then a #4 would be too low.

13. Pete Browning (13-15-x)
14. Charley Jones (15-x-x, PHoM 1921)--the creatures from the deep (backlog).

(14a. Stan Hack)--a likely PHoMer someday.

15. Joe Gordon (x-14-15)--I'm less convinced of Joe's HoM-worthiness. He belongs more in a group of non-HoM/non-PHoMers Doyle, Doerr, Monroe than he does with Boudreau, Hack and Herman.

Dropped out: None

16-20. Klein, Doyle, Cravath, Doerr, Duffy
21-25. Trouppe, (Stovey), Rixey, Averill, Childs (PHoM 1925), Dean
26-30. Oms, Monroe, Cicotte, Sewell, McCormick
31-35. Roush, Bell, Griffith, Elliott, Bresnahan
36-40. Traynor, (Keeler), Gomez, Ruffing, (Faber), Lundy, Mackey
41-45. Ferrell, Bancroft, Redding, Keller, H. Wilson
46-50. Dunlap, (Sheckard), H. Smith, Cuyler, Mullane, Wi. Cooper.

Stuff to think about for next year: Trouppe looks like the best catcher available, could move up. And I'm still thinking about those NeL pitchers. Not at all sure I've got the second tier in the right order. And Elliott might be too low.

Other newbies: Dandridge is #53, Easter #78, Wild Bill Wright #96.

Required: None. (Beckley is the highest rated by consensus who is not in my top 50. He is #57 but probably ought to be ahead of Dandridge.)
   13. Rusty Priske Posted: August 30, 2005 at 12:15 PM (#1583871)
PHoM: Johnny Mize & Biz Mackey

Wow, the Paige conundrum. I tend to be a career voter, but when I look at Paige it seems that he just doesn't stack up to his rep. He reminds me of Bell as a guy who I really WANT to vote higher, but just can't.

He debuts at 17 for me. I realize that he will likely get in this year, but I will keep analyzing him anyway. Maybe I'll change my views. It has happend before (constantly)

1. Mickey Welch (6,11,7)

Has bumped GVH as the guy I think we have done the most grievous wrong to.

2. Johnny Mize (new)

3. Jake Beckley (7,8,9)

He seems to get support, but never enough votes.

4. Red Ruffing (2,2,4)

The opposition to Ruffing surprises me. He is not an exciting candidate, but he is a deserving one.

5. George Van Haltren (4,5,6)


6. Eppa Rixey (11,6,10)

I am a little schizophrenic about Rixey.

7. Willard Brown (1,x,x)

I think I jumped the gun on him. I am still surprised by the lack of support.

8. Joe Medwick (5,7,8)

9. Biz Mackey (9,12,12)

10. Cool Papa Bell (10,9,13)

See comments on Paige, above.

11. George Sisler (12,15,15)

One of those guys who seems to be both over and under rated.

12. Dobie Moore (15,x,x)

13. Sam Rice (x,x,x)

14. Tommy Leach (13,13,14)

15. Quincy Trouppe (x,x,x)


16-20. Duffy, Paige, Roush, Childs, Powell
21-25. Ryan, Mullane, White, Monroe, H. Smith
26-30. Streeter, Grimes, Redding, Doerr, Strong
   14. andrew siegel Posted: August 30, 2005 at 12:17 PM (#1583873)
I've written a lot on the threads this week explaining my votes, so here's a shortish ballot:

(1) Satchel Paige (new)-- The numbers are barely a window into his career; on my list he ranks behind Johnson, Clemens, Young, Williams, Grove, and Alexander, in a knot with Spahn, Mathewson, Seaver, Feller, Brown, Gibson, and Maddux.

(2) Johnny Mize (new)-- In a seven-way ballot for the title "Third Best 1B of All-Time"; the writers' second biggest mistake.

(3) Hughie Jennings (2nd)-- I believe the WARP numbers that compare those five seasons to Mays, Speaker, and Collins.

(4) George Van Haltren (3rd)-- Defended him on the discussion thread; start with a long career, solid hitter baseline that puts him around 20th and then keep moving him up for little plusses.

(5) Dobie Moore (6th)-- Finally giving full credit for his peak; trails Jennings b/c/ his fielding was neither as good nor, in the context of the evolving game, as valuable.

(6) Wes Ferrell (4th)-- When all the era and park effects shake out, very similar in value to Coveleski, Vance, McGinnity, probably Caruthers.

(7) Earl Averill (5th)-- Offers peak, prime, and career.

(8) Eppa Rixey (8th)-- Careers of his length and quality are almost unprecedented for pitchers debuting between 1910 and 1960.

(9) Cupid Childs (7th)-- For seven years or so, he was as good as all but the top half dozen 2B of All-Time; in his era, that is close enough to a full career for an infielder to merit induction.

(10) Hugh Duffy (10th)-- Raw stats rank him behind the Ryan/Beckley/Sisler/Medwick/Roush set but I am mostly convinced that WS accurately captures his special contributions to special teams.

(11) Alejandro Oms (11th)-- Tied to Duffy for now.

(12) Red Ruffing (14th)-- All my metrics have him virtually even with Rixey; I keep him one rung below based on the hunch that the metrics don't fully separate out the team.

(13) Joe Medwick (13th)--I have re-evaluated Jimmy Ryan, Beckley, and Roush, and come to the conclusion that they are all essentially equal in value to Medwick and Sisler. I have thought long and hard about whether to move Medwick and Sisler down or move the others up. In the end, I just think these guys had more value than the alternatives such as Charley Jones, Joe Sewell, or Bobby Doerr. So, that set of players goes 13th-17th. I give Medwick a smidge of extra value for his special season, his team's overachieving, etc., and put him at the top of the set.

(14) Jimmy Ryan (unranked/25ish)--Looks a lot like Sisler to me, only his first career was a little worse and his second career was a lot better.

(15) George Sisler (12th)-- Great competition level keeps him ahead of next two.

Edd Roush is 16th--he's Van Haltren only less durable and playing against slightly inferior competition; Beckley is 17th--would rank higher if his best seasons were during the one-league era or if there was more evidence that he was a particularly good 1B.

Biz Mackey and Joe Sewell are 18th and 19th, very much in play to leapfrog any of the 10 or so guys directly in front of them.

Right now I have Quincy Trouppe with Bresnahan and Schang somewhere in the late 20's; Bob Elliot around 30th (I had Hack 24th); and Luke Easter between 50th and 60th (I see Fournier as the best comp).

Before the project began, I would have guessed that Dandridge was a surefire HoMer. Now, I don't even have him in my 75-player consideration set. The things you learn.
   15. TomH Posted: August 30, 2005 at 12:20 PM (#1583876)
"JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular:
152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better."
While there are reasons to vote for Beckley (great career length with quality), allow me to line up someone else's OPS+ figures along side Jake's:

JAKE BECKLEY 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
OTHER GUY... 175 55 47 43 41 35 34 30 29 29 27 25 25 -----------

Which is 13 years of 125 OPS+ or better! Yes, he career was shorter, and yes, his defensive value was somewhat less, but is there any doubt who the 'winner' in the above comparison is? And not only is he 'unelected', he is not even remotely close to our top 20.
   16. Howie Menckel Posted: August 30, 2005 at 01:02 PM (#1583912)
Well, if the guy's 175 and a 125 came in war-ravaged years, I'd factor that in. Defense an issue, too.
I voted for your mystery man his first time around, but probably you should launch him at the Medwick voters who have Medwick high but your guy low.
Still, I'll probably adjust my comment next time around!
   17. yest Posted: August 30, 2005 at 01:08 PM (#1583916)
(2) Johnny Mize (new)-- In a seven-way ballot for the title "Third Best 1B of All-Time"; the writers' second biggest mistake.

Andrew who do you think their biggest mistake is?
   18. sunnyday2 Posted: August 30, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1583947)
Sam Crawford? Home Run Baker? Not Goose Goslin.

Or maybe andrew meant the worst player they elected--Herb Pennock?
   19. SWW Posted: August 30, 2005 at 02:02 PM (#1583993)
Voting early this year, since I’m not having the huge debate with myself that I had last time. The next few weeks will be tremendously crazy for me, so you will definitely see many of the same comments recurring in my ballots. I’ll try to update as necessary. But I’m not just blindly posting, I swear.

1959 Ballot
1)Leroy Robert Paige – “Satchel”
A very skillful pitcher, and possibly the Negro Leagues’ top drawing card. And if you need a 53 year old in the bullpen, he’s your guy. Remember that in about six years.
2)John Robert Mize – “The Big Cat”
Outstanding numbers, and that’s before you realize how much time he missed for military service. A very worthy electee.
3)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I have looked over the stats again and again, determined to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. And try as I might, I just can’t escape the conclusion that he’s the most meritorious guy on my ballot. So I’ve decided to stop fretting about it and just accept the fact that you’re all wrong in the head. A c.v. that includes a durable, Win Share-rich career, six “All-Star” appearances, terrific black and gray ink, four World Series appearances, and clever use (and non-use) of the spitball. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, 1952 Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
5)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Whenever I’m trying to decide how to assess players who have outstanding peaks and then hang on for several more seasons, turning in decent performances, I often think of Ken Griffey, Jr. I guess I’d elect Griffey, too. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Sisler and Medwick are a good pairing. They’re both players with tremendous highs which define tend to define their careers, but lows that aren’t so low as to be invisible. I’m still trying to assess them properly. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
7)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
8)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
I consider him to be the best catcher currently available for our consideration, and though his numbers are not as gaudy as Gibson or Santop, they are significantly greater than his Major League couterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
9)Howard Earl Averill
I’m going to go ahead and say I was wrong in allowing him to slip off the ballot. A startling eight times as one of the 10 best players in his league.
10)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
He drops down from his personal high on my ballot, owing to my concerns about the lack of arc in his career. But I’m sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
11)Willard Brown
Another one of my characteristically cautious early rankings. Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot.
12)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
13)Edd J Roush
Part of the celebrated center fielder glut. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
14)Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.
15)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
And here he is, back again. Squeaks on just ahead of Redding and Dandridge (the latter of whom I’m still trying to suss out). Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

Other Top 10 Finishers
Hugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Everybody’s so worried about Medwick, and here comes Hughie. All he's got to sell is an extraordinary peak. The most daunting statistic for me: five-year prime is over 70% of his career. Just can't do it.
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
After re-reading “Drysdale and Pappas” from The Politics of Glory, I’m better able to see the case made on his behalf. But I still wish he had more of a career. Probably in my hypothetical Top 30 now, whereas he was maybe in the Top 50 before.
   20. andrew siegel Posted: August 30, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1584019)
If my memory serves me right, the writers' biggest mistake (exclusion division) was Arky Vaughn.
   21. Daryn Posted: August 30, 2005 at 03:58 PM (#1584257)
I find the lack of change in my ballot boring, but I don't know what to do about it.

1. Satchel Paige – I like the career length. Even if he is only Ryan, Sutton or John, he’d top this ballot for me. I think he is closer to Ryan than John (if he were John, Mize might top this ballot).

2. Johnny Mize – not enough career to be #1, but a heckuva prime. I actually debated whether to put him 2nd or 4th , but I don’t think it matters.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

5. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment. Nice to see him reaching the top 10.

6. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

7. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Ferrell, a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Griffith, the latter of whom I am souring on. If you like Ruffing, you should like Grimes.

8. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang (who I have at 28).

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

11. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

12. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

13. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

14. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut which includes group favourite Averill and former group favourite Van Haltren.

15. Willard Brown – I see him as close to Medwick.

25, 35 and 46 are where Ferrell, Averill and Jennings place on my ballot respectively. I can see the arguments for each, but I specifically reject the argument for Jennings, am not impressed with the argument for Averill and like the argument for Ferrell, but just don't think he reaches the ballot.
   22. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: August 30, 2005 at 08:42 PM (#1584989)
1. Satchel Paige. May as well look back, Satch. No one's gaining on you.

2 Johnny Mize. Most underrated player ever? Well, so much for the easy part of the ballot. . . .

3. Clark Griffith. Personal favorite 1890s pitcher. Nice career, nice prime. The Rodney Dangerfield of the Hall of Merit.

4. Cool Papa Bell. I try to balance the info in the threads with general reputation. Also, see my comment in his thread about why I think he's a little better than the MLEs suggest.

5. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch.

6. Mickey Welch. Thank you retrosheet. Turns out he earned those 300 wins. Offensive support only gave him 3-4 wins. Defensive support, though a little above average, was actually worse the defensive support of all major non-Galvin pitchers in the 1880s. In 1885, against the Cubs, he faced off against John Clarkson 7 times & won every game.

7. Biz Mackey. Better than Schang, and I have Schang on the ballot. IIRC, he's the #1 choice of both experts and players in the "Cool Papas and Double Duties" book as best Negro Leaguer not in Cooperstown.

8. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

9. Jake Beckley. You young'uns ain't going to believe this but in my first few elections I was the Best Friend of Jake (yes, even better than karlmangus). The more I look the less impressed I am. Created a lot of runs for his teams but also created a lot of outs for them.

10. Tommy Leach. All-time great fielder and a good hitter, too. Plus he played forever.

11. Wally Schang. Caught over 1400 games with a 117 OPS+? There's something you don't see everyday.

12. Wes Ferrell. He was a monster for a while, and lasted just long enough to rack up some decent career numbers.

13. Edd Rousch. Nice prime, good career length, good fielding, nice on the baseball paths. An overall good player. Drops some due to inability to stay healthy over the course of a year.

14. Jimmy Ryan. A poor man's Van Haltren.

15. Bob Johnson. Coin flip between him and Medwick. The fourt point lead in OPS+ gives Johnson the razor thin edge for now.

16. Joe Medwick. Great prime, nice career, but he's a tweener. Needs a little bit more of something.

17. Earl Averill. Info people have given me causes him to rise up, but still a little off a deep ballot. Maybe he'll rise again in my estimation as the week rolls on.

18. George Sisler. Really falls off for me in reevaluation. Great prime, but only seven years worth mentioning.

19. Cupid Childs. The D & OBP keep him above Larry Doyle. I buy the argument that it was tough to be an infielder in the 1890s.

20. Lave Cross. FREE LAVE!! One of the greatest fielders ever, an adequate bat, long career, caught some, too.

21. Joe Sewell. I'm not that high on any of the shortstops, but he's the best

22. Larry Doyle. Needed some better defense or another year or two. If he had that he'd be near the top of my ballot. Tough crowd.

23. Ernie Lombardi. Great hitting prime at a tough position to hit at. Terrible defense, though.

24. Red Ruffing. I'd like to see more from a guy pitching for the Yanks.

25. Alejandro Oms. Looks really good, but not good enough to make the ballot.
   23. KJOK Posted: August 30, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1585325)
Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. JOHNNY MIZE, 1B .743 OWP, 512 RCAP, 105 WARP1, 7,371 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. One of the alltime best at 1st base.

2. SATCHEL PAIGE, P. .Ranked as #1 Negro League pitcher by Bill James, Holway, McNeil, and SABR Top 40, #2 by Courier Poll, and was first Negro League pitcher inducted into HOF. Statistically, he doesn’t appear any better than Ray Brown, and seems to comp to Ferguson Jenkins more than Walter Johnson, but he belongs.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. .651 OWP, 282 RCAP, 75 WARP1, 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1910s means he should be in HOM.

4. JOE SEWELL, SS. .549 OWP, 346 RCAP, 103 WARP1, 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comp is Barry Larkin. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

5. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp may be Gary Carter.

6. WALLY SCHANG, C. .595 OWP, 271 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 6,422 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Not quite the hitter or fielder Bresnahan was, but played more games at Catcher, making him almost as valuable.

7. HUGHIE JENNINGS, SS. .607 OWP, 263 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 5,650 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Best SS of the 1890’s. Great offensively and defensively. SS defense and longer career value put him ahead of McGraw.

8. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP, 459 RCAP, 78 WARP1, 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND best 3B between 1875-1900!

9. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

10. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP, 245 RCAP, 115 WARPP1, 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Probably best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

11. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp is probably Fred McGriff. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons. Also similar to Mule Suttles, just with more deadball years in tougher parks.

12. BILL MONROE, 2B. Estimated 132 OPS+ over 8,276 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are somewhere between Rod Carew and Bobby Bonilla.

13. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. .609 OWP, 354 RCAP, 104 WARP1, 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s.

14. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. .610 OWP, 241 RCAP, 90 WARP1, 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Underrated.

15. EPPA RIXEY, P. 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.



LUKE EASTER, 1B. Estimated around 120 OPS+ over 6,811 post-age 30 PA’s. Def: FAIR. While he potentially COULD have been a great player with better luck and timing, his actual record looks like Tony Perez/Frank Howard at best.

BILL WRIGHT, RF. Estimated around 111 OPS+ over 7,844 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comps are Carl Furillo and Johnny Callison.

DUTCH LEONARD, P. 209 RSAA, 185 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, 92 WARP1 and 119 ERA+ in 3,220 innings.

RAY DANDRIDGE, 3B. Estimated around 91 OPS+ over 7,634 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Terry Pendleton and Willie Kamm.


BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player.

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. .539 OWP, 234 RCAP, 107 WARP1, 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Falls just behind Monroe and Childs.

JOE GORDON, 2B. .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

BOB JOHNSON, LF. .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Goes to near head of the class of OF glut, but falls just short of ballot.

EARL AVERILL, CF. .646 OWP, 321 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 7,222 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Fred Lynn a close comp.

JOE MEDWICK, LF. .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Initially overrated Medwick, so he’s moved off-ballot.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. .745 OWP, 478 RCAP, 95 WARP1, 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder.

MIKE TIERNAN, RF. .678 OWP, 350 RCAP, 81 WARP1, 6,722 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Compared to Van Haltren’s .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, and average defense, Tiernan looks superior. Even Pennants Added likes Tiernan.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. .620 OWP, 167 RCAP, 118 WARP1, 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. A notch below Tiernan.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comp may be Gary Carter. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

WES FARRELL, P. 200 RSAA, 159 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 117 ERA+ in 2,623 innings. He could certainly hit, and had some really great years, but falls short in BOTH rate and duration pitching measures relative to other candidates.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. .611 OWP, 205 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

RED RUFFING, P. 170 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 109 ERA+ in 4,344 innings. Good for awhile, and could hit, but I’d vote for Ferrell or even Welch first.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception somewhat a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. .623 OWP. 154 RCAP. 7,838 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not in the elite OF class offensively.
   24. Trevor P. Posted: August 30, 2005 at 11:14 PM (#1585519)
Four (four!) new debuts bump Oms and Ferrell off the end of this year's ballot.

1) Johnny Mize (new). Superlative.
2) Satchel Paige (new). Despite not matching the reputation, Paige is still better than Rixey.
3) George Van Haltren (1). Reminds me of Alejandro Oms, but with more innings in CF. Solid, consistent player in a tough, underrepresented era.
4) Eppa Rixey (3). Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit.
5) Red Ruffing (4). Have decided WARP3 is overrating his hitting contributions. He's still the type of player I like, though.
6) Jake Beckley (5). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule.
7) Quincy Trouppe (new). I like Schang, so I should like Trouppe who appears to be Schang plus 1,400 or so extra PA. Would like to hear more about his defense, though.
8) Bob Elliott (new). Will I be his best friend? Like Medwick/Johnson, the Hack/Elliott comparison is one more reason I hesitate to use win shares. Offensively they look about equal, with Elliott having a stronger peak. Defensively, Elliott's OF play (although not terrible by any account I've read) means he's slotting in at #8 whereas Hack made it to #2 on my ballot.
9) Jimmy Ryan (6). Regularly garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.
10) Wally Schang (8). Stalls, but is still one of my favorites. Once again, with feeling:

Schang: 6423 PA, 117 OPS+. OBP 44 points above league average.
Dickey: 7060 PA, 127 OPS+. OBP 29 points above.
Cochrane: 6206 PA, 128 OPS+. OBP 53 points above.
Hartnett: 7297 PA, 126 OPS+. OBP 23 points above.

11) Earl Averill (9). Beats Roush based on minimal PCL credit and league strength.
12) Edd Roush (10). I apparently love centerfielders. Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
13) Dick Redding (13). Paige-lite?
14) Tommy Bridges (11). Aside from his rookie season (and the 29 innings tacked on to the end of his career) Bridges NEVER posted a below average PRAA.
15) Cupid Childs (13). Lots of value at a time when 2B had perilous, short careers. Like Herman, was underrating him; now the best available 2B.

16) Alejandro Oms
17) Wes Ferrell
18) Clark Griffith
19) Bucky Walters
20) George Sisler
21) Joe Gordon
22) Hugh Duffy
23) Biz Mackey Despite the lengthy career, only a 100 OPS+. I can't discount his late-career seasons when he may have actually been hurting his team by playing.
24) Larry Doyle
25) Joe Sewell
26) Eddie Cicotte
27) Bobby Doerr
28) Burleigh Grimes
29) Joe Medwick. See Chris Cobb's comments about Medwick and Win Shares' analysis of his peak. I stand by my Bob Johnson comparison.
30) Cool Papa Bell
31) Hughie Jennings. Not enough career.
32) Tony Lazzeri
33) Bob Johnson
34) Pete Browning
35) Bill Monroe
   25. Mike Webber Posted: August 30, 2005 at 11:35 PM (#1585612)
Yest Wrote:

2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)

4. Satchel Paige(makes my personal HoM this year)

Speaking of mind boggling

Yest, I really tried to let this go, but I just have to ask, how do you reconcile the statement about Bell with the placement of Paige?

If Bell is considered one of the top five, wouldn't you say that Paige is one of the top 3 or 4? Oscar Charleston, Pop Lloyd, Josh Gibson and Satch. IF - big IF - Bell is the 5th man in that group, he's about the equivalent of the 5th Beatle.

Look I vote for Bell, I'm not totally convinced he isn't the best OF candidate on the ballot, but I am absolutely sure this is the first time I have ever seen a ranking of Negro League players where Bell tops Satch.
   26. yest Posted: August 31, 2005 at 12:17 AM (#1585784)
I consider him to be the second best negro leauger after Gibson (I happen to like good batting average good base running players) I'm was talking about majority of the baseball world
   27. OCF Posted: August 31, 2005 at 03:14 AM (#1586589)
1959 ballot. Not much time this week, but the top two are clear enough. The biggest lack-of-time flaw: I haven't yet figured out where to put Dutch Leonard and Bobo Newsom.

1. Leroy Paige (new) Hard to find under the statistics, but at his peak, he was a power pitcher with command, and those are rare enough. Add in the Spahn-like career length and I'll take him.
2. Johnny Mize (new) I'd put him ahead of Greenberg.
3. Red Ruffing (7, 7, 4, 4, 2) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
4. Larry Doyle (5, 5, 5, 5, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
5. Ducky Wucky Medwick (6, 6, 6, 6, 4) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
6. George Van Haltren (9, 9, 7, 8, 6) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
7. Eppa Rixey (10, 10, 8, 9, 7) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
8. Wes Ferrell (11, 11, 9, 10, 8) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
9. Joe Sewell (8, 8, 11, 11, 9) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
10. Earl Averill (13, 13, 14, 12, 10) Offense a little behind VH, Ryan, Duffy; defense a little ahead of them. Career length isn't good, but maybe he left a year of it in the PCL.
11. Jake Beckley (14, 14, 13, 13, 11) Not much peak, long career.
12. Biz Mackey (115, 15, 14, 14, 12) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
13. Jose Mendez (23, 23, 23, 15, 13) A peak-value pitching candidate.
14. Dick Redding (24, 24, 24, 16, 14) A career-value pitching candidate.
15. Bob Elliott (new) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Willard Brown (----, 15) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
17. Hugh Duffy (16, 16, 15, 17, 16)
18. Bucky Walters (18, 18, 17, 19, 18) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
19. Cupid Childs (19, 19, 18, 20, 19) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Joe Gordon (--, 19, 21. 20) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
21. Tommy Bridges (20, 20, 20, 22, 21) RA+ PythPat 190-124, which is a record that has to be taken seriously. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
22. Cool Papa Bell (21, 21, 21, 23, 22) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
23. Edd Roush (22, 22, 22, 24, 23) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
24. George Sisler (25, 25, 25, 25, 24) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
25. Bobby Doerr (---, 26, 25)
26. Dobie Moore (----, 26) Short career, high peak.
27. Bob Johnson (26, 26, 26, 27, 27) A late bloomer, excellent hitter, steady career. WWII discount keeps him out of the top 15.
28. Frank Chance (28, 28, 28, 28, 28) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time.
29. Rube Waddell (29, 29, 29, 29, 29) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
30. Roger Bresnahan (30, 30, 30, 30, 30) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
   28. Sean Gilman Posted: August 31, 2005 at 08:36 AM (#1586990)

1. Satchel Paige (-)--He’s good.

2. Johnny Mize (-)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Hughie Jennings (3)--Like Sam Thompson, only a slightly better peak and he was a shortstop instead of a right-fielder. (1932)

6. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

7. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

8. Clark Griffith (7)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. (1942)

9. Larry Doyle (9)--Another underrated infielder. . .(1945)

10. George Sisler (10)--That’s a nice peak.

11. Cool Papa Bell (11)--That’s a lot of career value.

12. Eppa Rixey (12)--Him too.

13. Joe Sewell (14)--Bit more career than Williamson. And WARP1 likes his peak better.

14. Bob Elliott (-)--Win Shares has him nearly even with Sewell, WARP’s got him even with Williamson, so he goes right in-between the two of them.

15. Ed Williamson (15)--Still chugging along. That timeline thing’s a killer.

16. Jose Mendez (16)
17. Carl Mays (17)
18. Red Ruffing (18)
19. Wes Ferrell (19)
20. Bobby Doerr (20)
21. Dave Bancroft (21)
22. Joe Gordon (22)
23. Roger Bresnahan (23)
24. Dick Redding (24)
25. Hugh Duffy (25)

30. Joe Medwick
31. Biz Mackey
35. Earl Averill
   29. Jim Sp Posted: August 31, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1588216)
1)Paige--Clearly well qualified so I don’t need to agonize too much about exactly how great he was.
2)Mize--Below Foxx, ahead of Greenberg and the ABC first basemen.
3)Averill--Looks like a HoMer to me even without PCL credit, but I do give him some PCL credit as he was obviously major league quality before arriving in the majors. Compare him to Goslin: Averill has a higher OPS+ (133/128), and is an A+ CF vs. a C+ LF. Goslin has career length, mostly because Averill plays in the PCL for a while. PHoM in 1948.
4)Elliott--I like him better than Hack.
5)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
6)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
7)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
9)Medwick-- PHoM in 1958.
10)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
11)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
12)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
13)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
14)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
15)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.

Hughie Jennings—impressive peak, not enough career.
Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #24.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Willard Brown--Not convinced yet on him.
   30. OCF Posted: August 31, 2005 at 08:50 PM (#1588293)
Mize--Below Foxx, ahead of Greenberg and the ABC first basemen.

I came into this project after ABC were elected, and never spent much energy trying to figure out where they fit in, but my own comment above was "ahead of Greenberg." Not that it's a choice that anyone has to make here, but I suspect that a lot of voters agree that Mize > Greenberg.
   31. Chris Cobb Posted: August 31, 2005 at 08:56 PM (#1588321)
1959 Ballot

Two shoo-ins this year takes off a little of the pressure to get the backlog into better order, a project complicated by the arrival of a very large number of very good players this year: Dandridge, Easter, Elliott, Dutch Leonard, Newsom, and Wright have all been given serious consideration, though only one (and not the one you expect!) has made the ballot. Next year I’ll finally have a major reassessment of the outfielders ready to bring into my rankings!

1. Satchel Paige (n/e). The legend may have been greater than the man, but he’s still an all-time great on his merits. I wish I had a clearer view of his performance in the early 1940s, but I’m glad that my uncertainty doesn’t affect his ballot placement.
2. Johnny Mize (n/e). Hugely underrated in general. I have him as the #6 first baseman all time right now, behind Gehrig, the ABC boys, and Jimmie Foxx. But he’s not all that far behind Foxx.
3. Clark Griffith (4). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
4. Hughie Jennings (5). The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
5. Eppa Rixey (6). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he may not be elected until the early 1960s. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
6. Wes Ferrell (8). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century major-league pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second? Ray Brown, of course, is the first twentieth-century pitcher to reach the HoM but not the HoF.)
7.Alejandro Oms (8). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. I think he’s the best outfield candidate eligible. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player.
8. Willard Brown (n/e). Probably the #3 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard. Well-rounded player except for his plate discipline.
9. Red Ruffing. (10) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
10. Biz Mackey (11). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
11. Edd Roush (12). Slips a little bit in the reevaluation of outfielders, but he was getting less of a bonus than Van Haltren and Leach, and was the best hitter of the three, so he retains his ballot spot.
12. George Sisler (13). Rises back up onto the ballot; his peak was truly outstanding, and long enough to matter a lot in my assessment of him.
13. Gavvy Cravath. (14) Extraordinary hitter.
14. Burleigh Grimes (15). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, as Grimes joins Rixey, Roush, and Cravath as representatives of that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 10 ballot spots.
15.Bobo Newsom (n/e). May be the only vote he’ll get, but my system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1939 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes, as his placement immediately behind Grimes suggests. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. Pending evaluation of Leon Day, I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border. I hope Newsom won’t get passed by without a serious look.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #25 below
Earl Averill. See #17 below
   32. Chris Cobb Posted: August 31, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1588328)

16. Joe Gordon (16). Kept off the ballot by Newsom’s surprisingly good showing.
17. Earl Averill (17). I give him one season of PCL credit, which puts him clearly ahead of Medwick. He’ll probably get back on my ballot before he gets elected.
18. Jose Mendez. (19) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention.
19. Dick Redding. (20) Still paired with Mendez.
20. Buzz Arlett. (21) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
21. Rube Waddell (22). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
22. Bobby Doerr (24). Not quite the impact player Boudreau was, but more consistent over the course of his career.
23. George Van Haltren (27). Right on the all-time in/out line for me.
24. Tommy Leach (26). Ditto.
25. Joe Medwick. (25). Overrated by the electorate, and I urge caution on him. I lean more toward the WARP view of him as good teams/pythagorean win share bonuses inflate his win share totals quite a bit. We have a number of outfield candidates with better records whom voters seem reluctant to support because of uncertainty about the value of their play outside of the majors: Oms, Cravath, Averill and Arlett deserve more support than they have received and should be ahead of Medwick in the election queue.
26. Cool Papa Bell (28). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MeL data is available.
27. Bill Byrd (28). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak.
28. Rabbit Maranville. (30) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
29. Bucky Walters. (30) Chris J.’s RSIs move Walters ahead of Trout. Pitchers have more responsibility than other players to have their wins match their RS/RA ratio.
30. Leroy Matlock (31). A a very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
31. Larry Doyle (33). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
32. Spotswood Poles . (34) Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
33. Bob Elliott (n/e). Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now. The lower end of the 1940s group—Doerr, Byrd, Walters, Elliott, Trouppe, Keller, D. Dimaggio—is really hard to figure out.
34. Mickey Welch. (37) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
35. Carl Mays. (35) Wes Ferrell lite.
36. Urban Shocker. (36) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
37. Hugh Duffy. (38) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
38. Jimmy Ryan
39. Roger Bresnahan
40. Wally Schang
41. Quincy Trouppe (n/r). I’m bringing Trouppe into my rankings this year. Qualitatively, he seems a lot like Schang: a catcher who was a very good hitter and a solid but unspectacular defender. He may deserve to rank higher, but I’m not comfortable yet placing so much weight on MxL translations that peg it at the same level of competition as the NeL.
42-45. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller
46-50. Charley Jones, Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell
51-55. Dick Lundy, Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper
56-60. Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Bobby Veach
61-65. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Tommy Bond
66-70. Jim McCormick, Bob Johnson, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier, Bruce Petway
71-75. Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning
76-80. Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Tony Mullane, Hilton Smith
81-84. Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Notable new arrivals in 1959 who land below the Berger line, at least this year:

Dutch Leonard. Long career, but very little in the way of peak, especially for a pitcher. He wasn’t a workhorse, and he wasn’t dominating. As a pure career candidate, he’s not bad: he’s probably in the top 100 candidates.

Ray Dandridge. Overrated in a fashion similar to Judy Johnson, though he is less overrated by his Cooperstown induction than Johnson was. At his best, he was a very good player, and he had a solid career, but that’s all.

Bill Wright. A fine player at his peak, though not great. He declined too early to get serious consideration as a career candidate.

Luke Easter. I’m still deciding what to do with him. We just don’t know very much about how good a player he was from 1937 to 1941. I need to do my own projections for his brief time in the NeL, to see how good he really looks. Is this a case of “could have been great” or a case of “was great, but went unnoticed”? To the extent that Easter’s case is the latter, he deserves support, but I’m not clear that he doesn’t land in the former category.
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: August 31, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1588422)
Chris, I'm satisfied (for the moment) that Easter was both: 1) Great but unnoticed (for a short time) and 2) Could have been great (at other times). In this sense, he is George Sisler or Addie Joss or Ross Youngs, etc. Not someone for whom the "coulda" merits a lot of XC (as distinguished from MLE C).
   34. Rick A. Posted: September 01, 2005 at 01:40 AM (#1589369)
Man, tough ballot this week. Satchel Paige, Luke Easter, Ray Dandridge. Makes you wish you could just take them all, place them in a neutral league with all the other players and just let them play. But, then what would we have to debate about? :)

Reevaluated pitchers this week. Peak/Prime pitchers jump up some more on my ballot, and career pitchers take a big hit, esp. Rixey and Ruffing.

Satchel Paige
Johnny Mize

1959 Ballot
1.Satchel Paige – Very unique career. One of a kind. Elected PHOM in 1959
2.Johnny Mize – How was he not elected by the writers. Elected PHOM in 1959.
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4.Hughie Jennings – Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
5.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
6.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
7.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
8.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
9.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
10.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time.
11.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Still in line to be a PHOM.
12.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
13.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
14.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
15.Earl Averill - Decided to give minor league credit.

Required Disclosures
Joe Medwick Not to far from my ballot, but not too far above Bob Johnson either.
Red Ruffing and Eppa Rixey Both pitchers drop in my reevaluation of pitchers. A little more peak value would have helped them alot.

New Candidates
Luke Easter This was the hardest candidate to rate this year. He pushes all the right buttons as far as what I usually give credit for. But, as Marc says, I just can't imagine a whole peak for him. I put him by Cravath for now, but that can most definately change with any new information.

Ray Dandridge This is one player who I was hoping would turn out to be the real deal. I remember when he was elected to the HOF, I read an interview with him, and he seemed like such a nice man. He was surprised that he was even considered for the HOF or that anyone even remembered him. I've been kind of a fan of his ever since. Unfortunately, not even close to the ballot. Ranks close to Traynor, Judy Johnson, Oliver Marcelle.

Bob Elliott Very good thirdbaseman. Behind Hack, Williamson, Leach, McGraw for that position.

Quincy Trouppe Not a new candidate, but I haven't gotten a chance to evaluate him. Will do that by the next ballot. May be better than Mackey.

Off the ballot
16-20 Redding, Duffy, Walters, Dean, Sisler
21-25 Bell, W. Brown, Medwick, Bresnahan, Oms
26-30 Roush, Cooper, B. Johnson, Waddell, Leach
31-35 McGraw, Ruffing, Cravath, Schang, Elliott
36-40 Easter, Mays, Gordon, Doyle, Poles
41-45 Keller, Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, F. Jones
46-50 Van Haltren, Rixey, Taylor, H. Wilson, Fournier
   35. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 01, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1590571)
1959 Ballot

1. Satchel Paige. Not an obvious #1, but given that both he and Mize require a little extra credit, I'm going with the fellow whose reputation precedes him.
2. Johnny Mize. One of the BBWAA's worst oversights.
3. Hugh Duffy. Best CF available, with the big peak I like.
4. Alejandro Oms. Best corner OF available. Doesn't have the huge peak, but does have a solid one, and a long, productive career to go with it.
5. Jose Mendez. As you can see, I like big-peak pitchers, and Mendez, by all accounts, had a big one. The hitting helps too.
6. Joe Medwick. I've busted Medwick down one slot due to increased talk of his teams' pythag effecting his WS.
7. Gavy Cravath. No such concerns for Senor Cactus. Although wouldn't Agave Cravath have sounded better?
8. Leroy Matlock. I'm not only his best friend and his only friend, I'm apparently also blinded by some kind of super-Matlock friendly gamma rays that hide all the horrible flaws that seperate him from the white big-peak, short-to-medium guys.
9. Bucky Walters. Speaking of big peaks.
10. Wes Ferrell. Speaking of big peaks.
11. George Burns. Another fine corner OF with a big peak.
12. Pete Browning. I blush at calling him a CF...but he was an "impactful" hitter.
13a. (Hack)
13b. (Herman)
13c. (Lyons)
13. Willard Brown. Big-hitting, athletic CF, he's got the goods and enough career to bypass Averill.
14. Quincy Trouppe. Whereas I've ultimately come down on a different side of the fence on Easter, I firmly believe that Trouppe's 1933-1936 seasons merit credit at a roughly average level of play, call it 10-15 WS a year. I think the same for 1937 (the boxing year), and in whiteball, he wouldn't have skipped out. But I'm open on that year either way. Anyway, tacking on my catcher bonus, plus credit for three years and he comes out at 330-345 WS for his career. Add in 1937, and he's at 340-360. Given this and his projected peak, he's firmly in the area between Joe Torre and Gary Carter. I could have him a spot or two too high if the playing time is off, but I'm convinced he's the best catcher available.
15. Red Ruffing. Long career hurler with questions about both halves of his career. A bit better than Rixey, but not an obvious NB HOMer.

Luke Easter: He's among the toughest candidates we've had to deal with. At this juncture, I've decided to place him just above Bill Terry, and just behind Edd Roush: # #21. The stats we do have put him a couple spots below Terry, but it's clear that Easter merits at least one or two years of peak or near-peak credit. Those seasons would put him just above Terry. He could make a strong move up the ladder pending new information.

Bob Elliot: I originally had him well down the ballot, but I'm convinced that he is underrated by WS, and so I've moved him up considerably. He is now just below Boudreau, indicating that I believe Elliot's career total is probably not too far, but that the pythags of his teams have probably dampened his peak seasons.

Bobo Newsome: Somewhere in the vicinity of Carl Mays and Paul Derringer. An effective pitcher with a lengthy career and lots of contradictory signals.

Dave Barnhill: I thought he would come out a lot better than he did. His WATs look pretty good, but I'm going with Chris's projection on this one.

Max Lanier: Here's a guy I'd like to do a little more work on. He was a very effective pitcher in the NL, Cuba, and Mexico in the mid-late 1940s, and I'm not sure that his being out of the country doesn't obscure his career quite a bit. I wonder what the lack of attention to Lanier says for Maglie's chances?

Dutch Leonard: Yeoman hurler.

Bob Johnson: For the same reasons that I moved Medwick down a slot and moved Elliot up several, I've now moved Johnson up a bunch. He's punching in just below Bill Terry at this point, #22.

Perucho Cepeda: We need a lot of data to understand this guy. Team, league, and player data. He's obviously extremely talented.

Pancho Coimbre: The data we have on him says he's very very good. The data we don't have on him, however, is what we really need. In some ways, he's the Luke Easter of Latin America since he's only on our radar's from age 30 or so onward.

Hughie Jennings: #16.
Earl Averill: #17
Eppa Rixey: #18
Biz Mackey: I like the length of his career, but without much peak, I'm not convinced he should be in my top 20. He's #40 for me.
   36. jingoist Posted: September 01, 2005 at 08:19 PM (#1591500)
I am quite excited at the prospect of GVH, Duffy and Ryan getting a few "on the ballot" votes.
Likewise Averill and Beckley are creeping ever higher.
I hold out hope that one or more of these guys will get in someday soon.

Keep up the good work; I continue to enjoy eavedropping on your discussions.

Quite civil, your discussions....I can tell most everyone respects the efforts and analyses of one another.

And good luck with your efforts to influence the upcomming Negro league analyses at Cooperstown.
   37. Mike Webber Posted: September 01, 2005 at 09:01 PM (#1591601)
If I was organized enough to have a PHOM Satch and Big John would be inducted this year.

1)SATCHEL PAIGE – Next summer we are celebrating his 100th birthday in KC at the SABR Negro Leagues convention. No dates yet, but I am inviting all of you would come and see the Negro League Museum, listen to some lectures, meet Buck O’Neil, go to a game and hang out in KC.
2)JOHNNY MIZE – easy number two
3)EDD ROUSH – 314 win shares, with a couple of missing seasons. Add a good peak to that, and I think he is the best of a tough centerfield group. I really think that his WARP number is, well Warped. I believe the NL in his early career has been unfairly hobbled.
4)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
5)EARL AVERILL – The PCL credit makes his total career value about the same as Roush and Medwick, so I break the tie with big seasons, and I’d say Roush and Medwick’s big seasons were just a little bit bigger.
6)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified.
7)COOL PAPA BELL – I can’t shake his reputation, despite what his MLEs have shown. Like Averill, career value about the same as the four above, MLEs suggest he had the lowest peak of the group.
8)CARL MAYS –I think his peak places him ahead of Ruffing and Rixey, even if he trails the pair by 60 to 75 total win shares.
9)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list.
10)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett. I think arguments about Schang being better than Mackey could be equally applied to Bresnahan.
11)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
12)HUGHIE JENNINGS - His peak probably puts your team over the hump for the flag, trumps the problems of short career
13)RUBE WADDELL – Another big peak pitcher
14)JOE SEWELL – Has the career value at a key position, but lacks just a little in peak value to be a slam dunk.
15)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Huge career value.

16-30 Sewell, Gordon, Berger, Dean, Traynor, Elliot, Warneke, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Schang, Redding, Duffy, Doyle, W. Cooper

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Rixey – I like the pitchers with big peaks better.

BOB ELLIOT – 10th in career games at 3b for the Pirates, and I think the 3rd best on the list of Pirate hot corner men. I think Leach is comfortably ahead, and Traynor slightly ahead. Be interesting to see what his career would have been in parks that fit his skills better.

LUKE EASTER – I think the documentation is too shaky to merit including him over plenty of worthy candidates that are better documented.
   38. Rob_Wood Posted: September 02, 2005 at 04:12 AM (#1592606)
1959 ballot:

1. Satchel Paige - one of the all time greats
2. Johnny Mize - damn shame he got shafted by BBWAA
3. Bobby Doerr - all the rest are tightly bunched
4. Jake Beckley - still like him after all these years
5. George Van Haltren - picking up momentum
6. Red Ruffing - very good pitcher
7. Earl Averill - a great hitter and good CF
8. Joe Gordon - an acrobatic second sacker
9. Bob Johnson - ballot-worthy for sure
10. Tommy Bridges - few of us see the light
11. Willard Brown - probably ballot-worthy
12. Bob Elliott - starts near the bottom of ballot
13. Joe Medwick - cannot see him deserving election soon
14. Eppa Rixey - solid career
15. Cupid Childs - luv to have him back on ballot

Didn't vote for Hughie Jennings (not enuf career), Biz Mackey (not good enuf period), and Wes Ferrell (not enuf career).
   39. Brad G Posted: September 02, 2005 at 01:49 PM (#1593083)
1959 Ballot:

1.Satchel Paige

2.Johnny Mize- Close to being #1 this year.

3.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

4.Earl Averil- Averaged over 27 Win Shares per 162 games.

5.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

6.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

7.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

8.Edd Roush- No matter what system I use, it always trends toward CFs. Roush put up some strong numbers, but probably not enough to get him in anytime soon.

9.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defenseive rating.

10.Hughie Jennings- Finally, after all these years, I see the light.

11.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes!

12.Cupid Childs- Questionable whether he was better than Gordon, but I don’t think he was quite at Doerr’s level.

13.Jimmy Ryan- Lest anyone refer to him as a “lost cause”, Ryan still shows prominently in my rankings.

14.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

15.Bucky Walters- WS3 = 102, Black Ink = 48, Gray Ink = 152.

Wes Ferrell- Currently ranked #21.
Biz Mackey- Falls in around #24, yet I’ll concede he’s the best of the currently-eligible Catchers.

   40. DavidFoss Posted: September 02, 2005 at 02:58 PM (#1593162)
Long weekend coming up. Don't forget to vote by Monday at 8 EDT.

(that goes for me too :-))
   41. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 02, 2005 at 03:07 PM (#1593170)
Long weekend coming up. Don't forget to vote by Monday at 8 EDT.

Maybe we could wait until Tuesday?
   42. DavidFoss Posted: September 02, 2005 at 03:54 PM (#1593274)
We didn't wait on Memorial Day weekend. It was a similar non-controversial election (Gibson/Ott). I suppose as always the backlog is jockeying for position in anticipation of the next opening.

Either way is fine with me. I was giving a heads up that there the usual routine is a bit different this week... people may be going away until late monday, files might be at work, etc, etc. Sometimes these weekends sneak up on me, especially if I'm overcompartmentalizing my HOM and real-life schedules.
   43. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 02, 2005 at 04:01 PM (#1593287)
especially if I'm overcompartmentalizing my HOM and real-life schedules.

HOM = Real life

; )
   44. Dolf Lucky Posted: September 02, 2005 at 04:23 PM (#1593324)
1 (-)Satchel Paige--Agree with all the comments about Paige being both overrated and one of the all time best pitchers

2 (-)Johnny Mize--He definitely had an undeserved negative stigma due to how long it took for him to get into the HOF.

3 (1)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

4 (4)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

5 (5)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the best pure (white) pitcher available.

6 (8)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

7 (7)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

8 (6)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

9 (9)Chuck Klein--Much better peak than anyone in the OF glut. Plus he was dominant in Earl Weaver Baseball.

10 (11)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

11 (10)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

12 (15)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

13 (13)Dom DiMaggio--Build in some "appropriate" war credit, and he has the same career value as Boudreau. Limited peak, as he was amazingly consistent.

14 (14)Joe Gordon--One of the great 'what-if' stories. I give him credit for his war years, but my suspicion is that if there was no war, he'd have been close to a no-brainer.

15 (-)Willard Brown--I've grown attached to the idea of him being somewhere between Medwick and Averill.

Top 10 omissions: Averill is too much like too many other outfielders to make into the top 15. Rixey has no peak. Mackey pales in comparison to recent catchers coming through the line. Jennings is the closest, but he also suffers in comparison to other top notch SS who have entered the hall.
   45. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 02, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1593438)
1959 Ballot:

1) Satchel Paige
I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and putting him above Mize.

3) Johnny Mize
After accounting for war credit, he wound up closer to Foxx than I would have guessed. Imagine if he got to DH at the end of his career.

3) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

4) Bucky Walters
Even discounting his play during the war years, Bucky comes out better than Ferrell.

5) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” I think Taylor is tied with Suttles for 2nd best Negro League 1st baseman.

6) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

7) Jose Mendez
Stays paired with Cannonball.

8) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible player. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

9) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

10) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. Best case scenario (for him) he’s just below Bucky Walters on my ballot; worst case scenario he’s down near Lon Warneke. I’ve got him with a slight edge over Ferrell.

11) Dutch Leonard
This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks second only to Ruffing.

12) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I rank him somewhere in-between.

13) Bobby Doerr
With Herman and Boudreau inducted, Doerr move to the top of the middle infielder heap.

14 Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Of eligible pitchers, his 5-year PRAR (457) is 2nd only to Dean.

15) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

The Rest of the Top 50
(returning 10 in bold)
16) Eppa Rixey—WARP1 favors Ruffing by 15% before it makes the timeline adjustment. Win Shares shows them as having almost identical career, rate and peak stats. I consider their war-time absences to be a wash. Incorporating any degree of timeline that deflates Rixey more than Ruffing and Red stands out as the better of the two by either uber-stat.
17) Bobo Newsom—Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.
18) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
19) Dizzy Dean—493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.
20) Pete Browning
21) Earl Averill—Solid, consistent major league performer: averaged about 27 WS/year for his 10 full seasons in the majors, never below 22 or above 33 during that span.
22) Spot Poles
23) Alejandro Oms
24) Joe Gordon—Not quite on the Herman/Boudreau/Doerr level.
25) Bill Monroe
26) Rube Waddell
27) Lon Warneke
28) Jimmy Ryan
29) Charlie Keller
30) Tommy Bridges
31) Dick Lundy
32) Urban Shocker
33) Mel Harder
34) Clark Griffith
35) Paul Derringer
36) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
37) Dominic DiMaggio
38) Ed Ciccotte
39) Dobie Moore
40) Tommy Leach
41) Jack Quinn
42) Ray Dandridge—Why were third basemen so consistently overrated in the Negro Leagues?
43) Vic Willis
44) Jim McCormick
45) Harry Hooper
46) Bob Johnson
47) Hughie Jennings—57.2 WARP3, 150 WS in top 5 years! (Too bad that makes up 82% and 70% of his career value, respectively.)
48) Waite Hoyt
49) Bob Elliott
50) Ed Roush

54) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
55) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
   46. Thane of Bagarth Posted: September 02, 2005 at 05:43 PM (#1593445)
Uh, yeah, so Mize is #2. No matter how many times I proof-read...
   47. Mark Donelson Posted: September 02, 2005 at 08:03 PM (#1593710)
My second ballot. Did about as much work to prepare for this one as on the first:

1. I redid my pitchers, having decided I was allowing too short a peak to shoot guys to the top. So I upped my minimum-peak requirement but gave it more value when it was there. This hurt both the super-short peak guys (Dean, Joss) and the all-career guys (Rixey, Ruffing), while helping others (Mendez, Redding, Walters).

2. I discovered that I'd missed the two top newly eligible NeLers from last year (Brown and Trouppe) entirely. Mea culpa--won't happen again.

3. I redid my evaluation of 19th-c. players significantly, particularly those playing the very short early-1880s schedules.

4. I gave slightly more of a boost than I had been giving to the tough end of the defensive spectrum (including the 2B/3B switch over time in those calculations).

1959 ballot:

1. Johnny Mize. Amazing that such a shoo-in could manage to be underrated, playing on the teams he played on. Great peak, great career, doesn't even need the war credit he's due. A no-brainer, obviously.

2. Satchel Paige. He may well have been better than Mize, and that's certainly his reputation. But given the uncertainty created by his actual numbers, and the possibility, at least, that he's a bit overrated, I can't put him above the Big Cat. Despite all that, undoubtedly one of the greatest ever, so no question that he earns at least this spot.

3. Hughie Jennings. He was here before my reasssessment of the 19th-century guys. If anything, he’s even more appealing to this peak voter after it. A dominant force, for just long enough.

4. Rube Waddell. My pitching do-over left him in the same place as well. Love the peak, and again, it's just long enough.

5. Wes Ferrell. He's right there with Waddell, for all the same reasons. Another fine peak.

6. Dobie Moore. His career is basically ALL peak, but it's a pretty darn good one. Add the defense and the positional adjustment, and he jumps Sisler and Medwick.

7. George Sisler. Still overrated by the general public, but still an excellent hitter for long enough to get my vote.

8. José Méndez. A little hard to tell, but even if the WS estimates are exaggerated, his peak is astonishing.

9. Joe Medwick. I listened a little to the critics, so he dropped a bit. But I still like the peak enough to put him here.

10. Hugh Duffy. For me, the best of the CF glut. Dropped a bit, but mostly because others rose when I reassessed.

11. Biz Mackey. Almost put Quincy Trouppe above him, but I still have some doubts (as others do) about the Mexican League MLEs. Given that Mackey's reputation is stronger, he stays atop the catchers, at least for now.

12. Cupid Childs. Great peak at a tough position, particularly in that era. Not quite Jennings level, but good enough.

13. Willard Brown. I just forgot about him last time, inexcusably. Seems to have been a Beckwith-level hitter, or nearly so. With a little war credit, he gets on easily.

14. Ned Williamson. Marc's right--with the adjustments for schedule, he's right there with Hack. All that adjusting makes me a little nervous, though, so I'm gonna be a touch conservative and put him here.

15. Earl Averill. Played at a high enough level for a long enough time to keep his ballot spot, despite the additions and changes around him.

16-20: Redding, Gordon, Trouppe, Berger, Walters
21-25: Doyle, Keller, Doerr, Bresnahan, Willis
26-30: Hack Wilson, Matlock, McCormick, Dean, Charley Jones
31-35: Oms, Poles, Roush, Browning, Cravath
36-40: Grimes, Chance, Ryan, Cicotte, Burns
41-45: Dunlap, Joss, Carl Mays, Van Haltren, Welch
46-50: Veach, Griffith, Rixey, Fielder Jones, Klein

Dropped from Last Ballot:
Dizzy Dean (29th). I was really overrating him, and my reassessment really killed him. (Joss also dropped, from just off-ballot to 42nd.)

Required Disclosures:
Red Ruffing (not in top 50): He was hurt by my reassessment too. I’m even less high on career guys with small or nonexistent peaks than I was before.

Eppa Rixey (48th). Same as with Ruffing above, except I think he’s a notch better than Ruffing overall.

Clark Griffith (47th). His somewhat better peak puts him above Rixey for me now, but he too was hurt overall by my reassessment.

Jake Beckley (not in top 50): Also hurt by the changes in my system. Just no peak at all, which is hard to recover from in my system.

George Van Haltren (44th): Another small-peak guy, but that’s better than none at all. Still, he’s below many of the other CFs with better peaks.
   48. sunnyday2 Posted: September 02, 2005 at 08:16 PM (#1593735)
Mark, great ballot. I am very curious, I guess I could look it up, but based on your various re-evals, how did this change from last year?

Also, have you looked at Tommy Bond? You don't look like a timeliner.... The data I've seen suggests that the 6 team NL of the '77-'78 was just as good as the 8 team NL of '79-'80'81, not to even mention the 16 team MLs of the rest of the '80s. In fact the NL may not have been better than '78 until around '89 (not '90-'91) and/or '92.

Yes, his is a short peak, shorter than Dean's in seasons, but much longer in IP.
   49. Mark Donelson Posted: September 02, 2005 at 08:56 PM (#1593796)
Last year I had Jennings-Herman-Waddell-Sisler-Ferrell-Hack-Medwick-Moore-Duffy-Mackey-Dean-Boudreau-Childs-Averill-Méndez. So really the major changes were the big drop for Dean, and the additions of Williamson and Brown.

Yes, I have looked at Bond. (And no, definitely not a timeliner). Based on my current system, he was just outside my top 50. He reminds me of a Keefe/Welch type, with a shorter career but a good peak. The problem is that I'm not so high on Keefe or Welch.

But I'll take another look for next year. He probably does deserve a bit better, at least.

I feel that (with your and others' help) I've now conquered the 1880s pitchers, but the 1870s are still flummoxing me a bit. Win Share conversions for 60-game seasons make me feel like I'm trying to read a language in an alphabet I don't know... And are there WS (or WS estimates) for the NA seasons available anywhere?
   50. Chris Cobb Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:05 PM (#1593810)
And are there WS (or WS estimates) for the NA seasons available anywhere?

Not at the moment. I did win-share translations for selected NA position players based on the then-current WARP1 numbers for those players a couple of years ago, but they were lost in the site re-design last year. They were posted on the main page of the Positional Threads.

I will re-assemble that data over the long weekend (I may well have the files I originally posted) and post them there again, unless there's a better spot for them somewhere in our data-rich labyrinth of threads.
   51. dan b Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:12 PM (#1593817)
1.Paige One of the best
2.Mize Of 1B to date, only Gehrig and Foxx better.
3.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
4.Jennings PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1890’s underrepresented.
5.Mackey the only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
6.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
7.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s underrepresented.
8.Averill More WS over 10 consecutive years than any other ML player on the ballot.
9.Brown, Willard
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
12.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
13.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
14.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
16.Browning PHoM 1906 and close to returning to my ballot for the first time since 1933.
17.Poles PHoM 1929.
18.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
19.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. PHoM 1942.
20. Mays I still like him better than Vance or Faber.
   52. Andrew M Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:12 PM (#1593820)
1959 Ballot

Busy week and heading out of town so very few new comments this week.

1. (new) Satchel Paige. I have no reason to think he wasn’t every bit as good as his reputation.

2. (new). Johnny Mize. Not in the Gehrig/Foxx category of 1b, but just behind. Hank Greenberg is an excellent comp.

3. (2) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is very impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

4. (3) Joe Medwick. He’s short on friends these days, and I am troubled listing him this high, but he rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a real peak, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that.

5. (4) Earl Averill. For 10 years, Averill was one of the 3 best AL OFs—probably the best from 1934-36—who could both hit (133 OPS+/.297 EQA) and play A+ quality CF. Averill also has a good argument for receiving 1 and maybe 2 years of PCL credit if one is so inclined. Though he lacks anything comparable to Medwick’s 1936-37 peak, his value over a 7-10 year period looks similar to contemporary OFs like Medwick and Goslin.

6. (5) Eppa Rixey. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me.

7. (6) Dobie Moore. Comparable peak at SS to Jennings, but a longer career. At his best, I think Moore may have been as good as anyone on this ballot, and with a few years credit for his army years, his career seems as long as several other middle IFs under consideration.

8. (8) Larry Doyle. Best hitter of the middle infield glut. His career OPS+ (126 to 112) is better than Herman--but career was shorter and Doyle was almost certainly not as good a fielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and Gordon and Doerr because I think his peak was higher—though I realize this is not a view held by most voters. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. Defense? Well, WS shows him as a C+ fielder and that’s good enough for me.

9. (9) Geo. Van Haltren. Still nothing new to add. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak, career numbers. Even pitched decently. Win Shares makes him look like a clear HoM-er, other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

10. (11) Rube Waddell. Downgraded, perhaps unfairly, for unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

11. (12) Hugh Duffy. Duffy has career excellent peak/prime Win Shares, A+ quality OF defense, and good black and gray ink. On the other hand, his career is on the short side (7800 plate appearances) and he only has one season (1894) that really jumps out at you. In some ways, he strikes me as the 1890s version of Joe Medwick.

12. (13) Hughie Jennings. With all the middle infielders recently under consideration his five great years look even more impressive.

13. (15) George J. Burns. Averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could hit, run, and field, and rarely missed a game. Began his minor league career as a catcher, oddly enough.

14. (17) Edd Roush. I have a hard time getting a clear picture of Roush’s career. A good CF and among the best players in the NL for a decade. Also had a couple of MVP type seasons and was the one of the best players on a team that won a World Series. (OK, it was the 1919 Series, but still…)

15. (19) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Jennings or Moore.

16. Wes Ferrell
17. Quincy Trouppe
18. Red Ruffing
19. Cool Papa Bell
20. Alejandro Oms
21. Joe Gordon
22. George Sisler
23. Indian Bob Johnson
24. Pete Browning
25. Dizzy Dean
26. Bobby Doerr
27. Jake Beckley
28. Joe Sewell
29. Tommie Leach
30. Wally Schang or Roger Bresnahan or Biz Mackey

Subject for further research: Luke Easter
   53. Tiboreau Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:27 PM (#1593849)
Chris Cobb's NA WS translations are post #14.
   54. sunnyday2 Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1593867)
Unless I'm mistaken, those translations were done in 2002, maybe 3 or even 3 1/2 years ago! Goodgod.
   55. jimd Posted: September 02, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1593871)

Ballot for 1959

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.

1) S. PAIGE -- Legendary.

2) H. JENNINGS -- If he had any kind of career, he'd be first-ballot, inner circle.

3) J. MIZE -- With war credit.

4) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

5) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

6) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

7) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

8) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

9) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

10) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

12) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus gets him on ballot.

13) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

14) E. AVERILL -- Giving a little bit of PCL credit.

15) R. MARANVILLE -- Very long career playing great defense; needs a little more bat.

Just missing the cut are:
16-19) Tommy Leach, Hugh Duffy, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan,
20-23) Dick Redding, Eppa Rixey, Gavy Cravath, Ray Schalk,
24-27) Ned Williamson, Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon, Joe Medwick,
28-31) Herman Long, Dick Lundy, Jim McCormick, Wally Schang,
32-35) Edd Roush, Jose Mendez, Rube Waddell, Roger Bresnahan,
36-37) Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,
   56. Paul Wendt Posted: September 03, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1594228)
Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season.

better singles hitter?

Willie Keeler and George Sisler achieved their personal highs for singles (1BH) and Hits in different seasons, both included in this table.
GS is Games Scheduled.

<u>GS : 1BH Hits Name yyyy : 1BH/GS H/GS</u>
132 : 193 239 Keeler 1897 : 1.46 , 1.81
154 : 206 216 Keeler 1898 : 1.34 , 1.40
154 : 171 257 Sisler 1920 : 1.11 , 1.67
154 : 178 246 Sisler 1922 : 1.16 , 1.60
162 : 225 262 Ichiro 2004 : 1.39 , 1.62

Mike Webber #25
If Bell is considered one of the top five, wouldn't you say that Paige is one of the top 3 or 4? Oscar Charleston, Pop Lloyd, Josh Gibson and Satch.

FWIW (not much), I agree with this assessment of the conventional wisdom: this quartet is almost universally considered among the top five Negro Leagues players. Then Leonard, Bell, and Williams split the support.
   57. Esteban Rivera Posted: September 03, 2005 at 02:09 AM (#1594485)
1959 Ballot:

1. Satchel Paige – The reputation might be more glitz but there is a really great pitcher with a phenomenal career length in there. Welcome to the HOM Satch.

2. Johnny Mize – Joins Ott in the historically underrated wing of the HOF. Trumped by Paige’s career length.

3. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

6. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

9. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

10. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

11. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

12. Earl Averill - His place among the best for his time in the league lands him here. Is given credit for the PCL.

13. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

15. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.
   58. Chris Cobb Posted: September 03, 2005 at 02:49 AM (#1594593)
Chris Cobb's NA WS translations are post #14.

Thanks, Tiboreau, for tracking these down. Gotta love the Way-Back Machine!

sunnyday2 wrote:

Unless I'm mistaken, those translations were done in 2002, maybe 3 or even 3 1/2 years ago! Goodgod.

Well, they're not quite that old. The post Tiboreau found was dated August 30, 2003, so it's just a little over two years old, from around the time of the 1907 election.

And they really couldn't be much older than that. I got involved in the HoM project in June of 2003: the WARP-to-WS translations were my first independent contribution to the project.

So that anyone who wants to find them won't have to (1) search the Way-Back Machine or (2) remember that there is a link on this thread, I'll post a fresh copy on the main page of the positional thread, where the original used to be.
   59. Tiboreau Posted: September 03, 2005 at 04:50 AM (#1594821)
1. sp Satchel Paige (nc)—The big draw of the Negro Leagues, Paige may have been overrated, but an overrated Satchel is still a great pitcher. PHoM 1959
2. 1b Johnny Mize (nc)—One of the more underrated ballplayers in MLB history, a legitimate contender for top 5 among first basemen. PHoM 1959
3. sp Wes Ferrell (2, 5, 5)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 4 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter. PHoM 1957
4. sp Clark Griffith (5, 7, 7)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former. PHoM 1939
5. ss Hughie Jennings (6, 8, 8)—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates, but his peak also comprises of 74.7% of his WARP and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value. PHoM 1942
6. cf Hugh Duffy (7, 10, 10)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
7. lf Joe Medwick (8, 9, 9)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
8. sp Dizzy Dean (9, 11, 11)—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! Win Shares credits Dean with the best peak among eligible pitchers, while only Wes Ferrell has a better peak according to WARP.
9. ss Dobie Moore (10, 12, 12)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
10. rf Gavy Cravath (11, 13, 13)—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
11. sp Bucky Walters (12, 14, 14)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
12. cf Alejandro Oms (4, 4, ob)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS).
13. 2b Cupid Childs (13, 15, ob)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
14. sp Jose Mendez (15, ob)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
15. cf Edd Roush (ob)—Roush nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.

Required Disclosures:
16. cf Earl Averill (ob)—Another center fielder with a fine resume to add to the ever-growing glut of solid outfield candidates. Similar in value to Boudreau & Gordon, IMO. I give Averill credit for his ’28 PCL performance.
18. sp Eppa Rixey (ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+ puts Eppa Rixey near my ballot, but his lack of a peak just doesn’t cut it.
20. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang.
21. 1b George Sisler (ob)—While his peak is nice it’s not as good as I originally thought, and his marginal second-half isn’t enough combined with his peak to get him on my ballot.
26. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
XX. 1b Luke Easter (nc)—While I think that he's deserving of credit for playing for a competitive Negro League squad from '37 to '41 ( and '46) and is a legitimate candidate for WWII credit (from '42 to '45) I can't escape the fact that this requires 10 years of credit during a time when we have no information on how good, exactly, Luke Easter was. Unless new information regarding his play in '37 – '41, '46 comes forth, I will not rank Easter based on talent potential.
   60. DavidFoss Posted: September 03, 2005 at 03:33 PM (#1595234)
Last 'year' the Yankees won the World Series (again) with their patented model of superstars and role players with Carey, Siebern, Howard and Duren stepping up this year to support Mantle, Ford and Berra. Can anyone in the AL stop the Yankees?

After two straight pennants and some great young stars the Braves look poised for a bright future in Milwaukee for many years.

1959 Ballot

1. Satchel Paige (ne) -- One of the great characters in all of baseball history -- not just the Negro Leagues.
2. Johnny Mize (ne) -- As good as Greenberg in every single way. Maybe the BBWAA only remembered his days as a useful role player for Stengels Yankees? Imagine how great the 40s Cardinals would have been if they could have afforded him.
3. Hughie Jennings (1) -- Basically the best player in baseball for five years running, with great durability in his peak years. Not much outside that peak, though, or he would have been inducted long ago. Imagine Boudreau with 3-4 more 1948's.
4. Clark Griffith (2) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
5. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning, but still has a core group of followers. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
6. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
7. Biz Mackey (6) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
8. John McGraw (7) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
9. Dick Redding (8) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
10. Wes Ferrell (10) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
11. Gavvy Cravath (12) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
12. Joe Gordon (13) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
13. Charley Jones (14) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
14. George Sisler (15) -- Welcome back Jorge! Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
15. Roger Bresnahan (nr) -- Welcome back Roger! Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.

Medwick/Averill -- I'm tough on outfielders and their careers were not spectacular enough. The 30's is looking very well represented.

Rixey -- Long career, but issues with peak are holding him down. I did like him better than Faber.
Ruffing -- another 30s star misses the ballot. I prefer Ferrell.
   61. Gadfly Posted: September 03, 2005 at 05:20 PM (#1595318)

1. Satchel Paige
2. Gavy Cravath
3. Willard Brown
4. Luke Easter
5. Dick Redding
6. Cool Papa Bell
7. Johnny Mize
8. Alejandro Oms
9. Charley Jones
10. Biz Mackey
11. Ben Taylor
12. Hughie Jennings
13. Edd Roush
14. Charlie Keller
15. Roger Bresnahan

Notes on Ballot:

1) I've changed the way I rate players, basically adding 3 times the peak in WS (best 5 years) to the career total WS. Strangely enough, it did not really change the top of my ballot much. Also, some players (like Earl Averill and Hugh Duffy) probably deserve to be in the bottom five but I didn't get around to figuring out their scores.

2) One cool aspect of my grading system was that the players kind of came out with letter grades (i.e. A no-brain Hall of Famer candidate would score over 1000, a real good Hall of Fame candidate would score 900-1000, a good HOF candidate would score 800-900, and marginal HOF candidates scored under 700 (the lowest HOF score that I figured was Lombardi, even with a 25 percent catcher bonus).

Notes on New Players:

1) In my opinion, Satchel Paige was the greatest pitcher that ever lived, easy. He is actually being underestimated in his thread due to a complete, but understnadable, misunderstanding about how he was used.

2) Johnny Mize was pretty easy to rank and had a career much like Greenberg in WS (great for a long time, many missing years, but no fantastic peak). Although there is no way to correct for it, Mize probably would have had his best year somewhere from 1942 to 1945. However, you cannot give credit for something that did not happen.

But it bugs me.

3) The hardest to rate was Luke Easter. I gave him Major League credit from 1946 to 1960 at first. Then, to be consistent with everyone else, I added in the war years, 1942 to 1945. Finally, again to be consistent, I also gave him credit for 1939 to 1941.

Even with this, I tried not to give him too much credit. Unlike Cravath, I did not adjust for Easter's adjustment periods. For before 1946, I simply added basic bulk, no peak. But he still came out as an A+ Hall of Fame player.

Basically, there is no way around that. If Easter had actually played in the Majors from 1939 to 1960, it's pretty obvious that he would have hit over 600 home runs.

And, realistically, the only thing that kept him from doing that was that he was black.
   62. Chris Cobb Posted: September 03, 2005 at 05:47 PM (#1595365)
Gadfly wrote:

[Satchel Paige] is actually being underestimated in his thread due to a complete, but understnadable, misunderstanding about how he was used.

I don't disagree that Paige is being underrated. I would say that the problem at this point is less of a complete misunderstanding (your posts have helped to take care of that) than a problem that the existing statistics don't document how he was being used in an accurate way.

Is there any halfway decent statistical record of how Paige was being used, esp. 1941-46?

Do you have any explanation for why Holway's data on Paige's wins and losses looks like it does? Do you think his numbers are wrong, or does Paige's usage pattern account for his unimpressive winning percentage, coupled with his very large number of decisions, during those years?

I'd like to be able to produce a better projection, but I can't without better data or an improved way of interpreting that data.
   63. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 03, 2005 at 06:01 PM (#1595385)
1959 ballot, Paige and Mize make my PHOM.

Also, my first ballot from lower Manhatten!

1. Satchel Paige (x, PHOM 1959) - I am selecting the Bill James tack, when he said that Satchel was the standard to which all NeL pitchers have been measured, so until I see overwhelming evidence to the contrary he is the best NeL pitcher ever.

2. Johnny Mize (x, PHOM 1959) - It is odd that he is almost as well known as a platoon player for Casey Stengel's Yankees as he is as one of the 10 best 1B ever.

3. Hughie Jennings (1, PHOM 1938) - At his best he was as good as Musial, Mays, ARod, etc. For me that is more than enough.

4. Wes Ferrell (3, PHOM 1956) - Maybe not the best pitcher on the board, but he was certainly the best player to have played pitcher on the board. He had a great peak and a 100 OPS+ is a real asset from the pitcher's spot.

5. Cupid Childs (6, PHOM 1939) - A return to the top five for little fat man. A nice peak and good career length for a 19th century MIer.

6. Joey Medwick (7) - He had a very good peak that may have been inflated a tad by Win Shares. But dont' players derserve some credit if their teams overachieve? I don't know the answer but I do know that Medwick has gotten a bad rap the last few weeks.

7. Hugh Duffy (8) - Best of the 1890's CF glut based on his superior peak.

8. Dick Redding (9) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era and most likely one of the five best in the history of the NeL's.

9. Charlie Keller (10) - A monster peak that was cut short by two war years. He has many MVP level seasons, which with war credit overcomes my concerns about his lack of games played.

10. Bucky Walters (11) - I tend to think of him as Wes Ferrel without the major league average bat. A great pitcher for a few years.

11. Earl Averill (12) - For ten years he was a very good player, add in a few years of PCL credit and it probably adds up to a HOMer.

12. Dobie Moore (13) - The NeL version of Hughie Jennings except he was done in my a trip to the whore house instead of a bum shoulder. His peak was slightly worse as well.

13. Clark Griffith (14) - 4th best pitcher of the 1890's, but is that really that impressive? He is certainly the best 19th century pitcher we have yet to elect, certainly better than the Mickey Welch's of the world.

14. Eppa Rixey (15) - For a peak voter I do seem to have a soft spot for pitcher who threw a lot of innings in their careers without a real peak.

15. Joe Gordon (NR) - He slips onto the ballot this year. I thought I would like him more when he came on and am a little worried I am overrating him. He was a very good player at his best and he gets war credit.
   64. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 03, 2005 at 06:10 PM (#1595396)
16-20 Doerr, Browning, Dean, GVH, Sisler
21-25 Elliot, Oms, Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger
26-30 Mendez, Trouppe, Cravath, W. Brown, Willis
31-35 Mackey, Roush, Bell, Lundy, Monroe
36-40 Ruffing, Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker,
41-45 Johnson, Leach, Thomas, McGraw, Scales
46-50 Wilson, Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns


xx. Luke Easter - I just moved this week so I haven't had the time to look over Easter's case enough to rank him. Right nwo I dont' think I can give him imaginery peak years and as a peak voter I dotn 'think he is PHOM material. We shall see.

21. Bob Elliot - He doesnt' grade out as high as Hack did but he is certainly the best 3B on the board.

27. Quincy Trouppe - He is only this low because I want to take some caution. he grades out really wellin my system but I am not sure how much of his high WS totals are based on his playing third.

Dandridge, Wright, et. al come up a little short.

Required disclosures

36. Ruffing - Nothing special. he seems to not have been as good as Rixey and they were similar pitchers.
   65. Gadfly Posted: September 03, 2005 at 06:44 PM (#1595424)
Chris Cobb-

One of the things I'm working on is documenting Paige's 1945 season as much as I can. Holway credits Paige with going 5-9 for Kansas City that year (Of course, the Monarchs, who were hit very hard by the draft, were just an average team in 1945, going 32-30 in NAL play).

From what I've collected so far, Paige was being used to draw crowds. He typically pitched three or five innings and was apparently pitching every three, sometimes two, days.

Just from the games I've collected (16 so far), Paige was pitching incredibly well. I've only found one game where he got thrashed and even that kind of comes with a asterik.

In that game (6-24), Paige faced the Homestead Grays. He pitched his usual five innings and pitched well, letting in two runs, one earned. In the sixth, Paige came back out in an attempt to win the game. The game story specifically stated that Paige was only supposed to go five but asked to go further.

The Grays erupted for seven runs on two errors and a bunch of cheap singles (including a bunt single by Buck Leonard). The game was played at Griffith Stadium and drew a reported crowd of 18,000. It's pretty apparent that most of the seven runs were unearned.

Also of interest is two games Paige played late in the 1945 season against Bob Feller. In two games against Feller's All-Stars (10-2 and 10-27), Paige pitched 12 innings and struck out 18 men (he pitched 5 innings in the first and 7 innings in the second game).

The games were played at Wrigley Field in Los Angeles, and the first one drew 23,000 fans - the biggest crowd there all year. This is probably the seed for the Feller-Paige tour in October of 1946.

Of course, the interesting thing about both games and many other games I've found is that Paige got a no-decision in both. The fact that he was only going five innings at most seems to have put a damper on his ability to win. On the other hand, the usuage pattern seems to have made it even easier for him to lose a game.

Although I haven't got nearly enough info yet, it is obvious from what I've found that:

1) Paige was a huge drawing card;
2) Paige was pitching a lot;
3) Paige was pitching very very well; and
4) Paige's opponents were really geared up to try to beat him (i.e pitching their aces).

As for Holway and Paige's usuage pattern, there was a chart in one of his books listing the 1941 or 1942 KC Monarchs' starting pitching staff.

In that chart, if I remember right, Paige was the worst starter by Won-Lost Pct (I think he was listed as being 8-5). However, the pitchers were also listed by TRA (Total Run Average, i.e. ERA with the unearned runs too).

In that TRA chart, Paige was the best pitcher on the team and it wasn't even close. In other words, his W-L refected his use, not his actual skill. If Paige had been in the Majors and pitching in rotation, I think things would have been different.

Not that it matters much because Satchel will being going in on the first ballot. If I ever get enough info on his 1945 season for some absolutely definitve conclusions, I'll post it on Paige's thread.
   66. sunnyday2 Posted: September 03, 2005 at 06:52 PM (#1595432)
Also for Gadfly, I may be misunderstanding your comments, but it sounds to me like you give Johnny Mize no credit for his missing WWII years but that you do give Luke Easter credit for the same thing...?
   67. OCF Posted: September 03, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1595466)
Although there is no way to correct for it, Mize probably would have had his best year somewhere from 1942 to 1945. However, you cannot give credit for something that did not happen.

But you rank Charley Jones nearly as high as Mize. Are you giving Jones credit for "something that did not happen"?

I was struck, as sunnyday2 also was, by how far in spirit this comment seems from the rest of your ballot, in which so much depends on what players did outside of the highest level of competition (Cravath, Easter, Jones).
   68. Gadfly Posted: September 03, 2005 at 07:57 PM (#1595478)
66. Sunnyday:

I gave both Luke Easter and Johnny Mize credit for World War 2 as both should have been in the Majors at that time (barring war and color). What I meant by my comment on Mize was something different.

By my system, I gave Mize Credit for his career as follows:

By Career Win Shares (1936-42, 46-53) 26-34-28-33-33-26-32, 22-32-30-12-12-11-04-03=338 plus 90 extra Win Shares for 1943-45 for a total of 428.

By Peak WS (Best 5 Years) 34-33-33-32-32=164.

Total: Career WS (428) plus Peak WS (164) multiplied by 3 (492)= 428 + 492= 920 (equals Mize being an A- Hall of Fame candidate.

However, in crediting Mize with 90 WS for 1943 to 1945 (say a 30-30-30 WS line), his career WS is probably about right, but his peak is probably understated.

By this, I mean that 1943 to 1945 are dead in Mize's prime. It is quite likely that Mize would have had a season in there that would have been one of his top five peak seasons.

For instance, what if Mize had had his absolute peak season in 1943 (say 38 Win Shares) and then an injured season of 22 in 1944 and a regular season of 30 WS in 1945.

Now his total is still 428 Career but 510 peak. Of course, the counter argument would be that Mize may not have had any peak year from 1943 to 1945. But realistically, that is very unlikely because, as noted, these seasons are dead in what should have been Mize's peak years.

For this reason, Mize is probably understated in my system and that bugs me. But there is nothing I can do about it because I can't give credit for a monster year that did not happen.

I have Mize rated 7; but, if he had some good peak from 1943 to 1945, John could have easily have been rated 5.
   69. Gadfly Posted: September 03, 2005 at 08:34 PM (#1595536)

Charley Jones gets career credit from me for 1881 and 1882, but he has a real monster peak in the Majors (if I remmber correctly 1879 and 1884 adjusted are 39 and 38 WS years). Of course, just like Mize, Jones may have missed out a peak season in 1881 or 1882 but gets no credit for it. Thus, like Mize, he may be slighlty underrated.

Gavy Cravath gets credit from me for his monster peak in the 1907, 1910 and 1911 High Minors. If you're interested in why, simply read my posts on his thread. Cravath, at any other time or place, would be a hands down Hall of Famer. It wasn't talent that kept him out of the Majors, it was simply the way the Majors and Minors were structured at that time.

Easter is probably the most difficult. But his 1946 and 1948 seasons were incredibly good. His 1948 Negro League season is easy to evaluate. On the other hand, his 1946 season is almost impossible to evaluate. Perhaps the one questionable decision I made on Easter was to give him equal credit in 1946 as to 1948.

It was my understanding that the Hall of Merit was formed to uncover hidden greatness. If these three guys don't qualify, who does?

One thing that I have noted in the Hall of Merit is a certain blindness to all things not 'Major League.' Cravath and Easter played for over 20 years each. My method is to evaluate their whole careers, not just the Major League portion.

Of course, if you cannot see that either of these men could have easily have held a job in the Majors long before they actually did, then my ratings will make no sense.

[Note: Jones is much the same quality of hitter as Easter or Cravath, but simply does not compare on career length, which is why he rates below them.]
   70. sunnyday2 Posted: September 03, 2005 at 08:54 PM (#1595578)
Gadfly, thanks, I understand your comment on Mize now.

FTR I have had Charley Jones on my ballot for years, and Cravath is now around #18-20 or so.

The difference between Jones and Cravath OOH and Easter OTOH is that for Jones we have to "imagine" what he might have done in 2 years out of a fairly normal (for the time) 12-14-15 year career. For Cravath we have to "convert" 4-5 years from one environment to another out of a fairly normal career length of 15 years or so.

For Luke, we have to "imagine" (setting aside the conversions from NeL to MLE which are easy enough--we have to imagine) about 10 years out of a 20 year career, as Tiboreau points out above. This is an awful lot of uncertainty. More than I've entertained before.

More analogous to Easter is perhaps Buzz Arlett and with Buzz we're just converting, not filling in seasons when he didn't play.
   71. Gadfly Posted: September 03, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1595786)

I give Easter credit for 22 seasons: 1939 to 1960. Of those 22 seasons, 4 are in the Majors (1950-53), 8 are in the High Minors (1949, 1954-1960), two are in the Negro Leagues (1947-48).

Thus, 14 of the 22 are Major League seasons or Major League conversions. This, of course, leaves 8 seasons which are somewhat 'imaginary.'

Those seasons (1939-1946) are split up into:

1939-41: Best hitter on a team that cleaned up on Negro League teams.

1942-45: War credit.

1946: One season, at the age of 30-31, as an absolute monster hitter, although not for a regular Negro League team.

And, as I said, I am giving Easter no credit for the fact that most or even all of his peak is almost surely in those lost (i.e. World War 2) years.

But I will say this: the man was a Major League hitter for over 20 years. Just giving him an average of 20 WS per year puts him over 400 for his career. His performance in 1948 and half of 1949 and half of 1952 indicates that he would have had peak seasons of 40 or even more WS.

The man was a monster.
   72. Paul Wendt Posted: September 04, 2005 at 12:51 AM (#1596094)
Chris Cobb #58:
I got involved in the HoM project in June of 2003: the WARP-to-WS translations were my first independent contribution to the project.

Was there another effort to generate NA Win Shares?
Defending a delay in getting underway, Joe Dimino wrote 2003-01-31:
We are VERY (2-3 weeks?) close to having NA Win Shares, with several modifications that will help to resolve many of the issues people have with Win Shares in general. I really think this would add a lot to the discussion.

Gadfly #65:
As for Holway and Paige's usuage pattern, there was a chart in one of his books . . .
In other words, his W-L refected his use, not his actual skill. If Paige had been in the Majors and pitching in rotation, I think things would have been different.

The modern scoring rule for pitcher decisions gives some Ls but no Ws to starting pitchers who works fewer than 5 innings. How do Holway and other modern researchers assign W-L decisions to pitchers? Or do they follow contemporary scoring (official scorers or sports writers)?
   73. Brent Posted: September 04, 2005 at 04:37 AM (#1596535)
1959 Ballot:

An easy ballot at the top, but this year's entering class as a whole has been unusually difficult to evaluate. If I could, I would vote for 31 players this year.

1. Satchel Paige –
Whenever Chris or Dr. C compiles MLEs for a player, I always adjust them based on what I think may be omitted or biased in the data they've used. Usually my adjustments are small—on the order of 10 percent or less. Without any adjustments, Chris’s MLEs show Paige as a pitcher with 336 win shares and a nice peak—certainly good for an elect-me position.

However, in Paige’s case the likely biases are much larger than for any other player I’ve evaluated. I believe a conservative estimate is that Chris’s MLEs for Paige are too low by 130 to 155 WS. I see four major omissions, of which the first two were already discussed by Chris:

- The conversion factor is too low for the 1932-36 period; Chris’s estimate is that 10 to 15 WS should be added for this period.

- According to information provided by Gadfly, the Holway data for 1939-45 omit much of Paige’s pitching that took place in exhibitions or non-league games; the data also misstate the quality of his performance. Chris estimates that Paige is shortchanged 60 WS in this period.

- Another important consideration is that Paige’s W-L record was lowered because he was usually matched against the top teams and pitchers. While this effect shows up to some extent with all great pitchers, there are good reasons to think that it was more important in the Negro Leagues and especially for Paige. A conservative estimate is that this shortchanges Paige by 20 to 30 WS between 1932-47 (it's plausible that the effect could be twice that large).

- Finally, I think Paige continued to pitch at a good major league level during 1950 and 1954-57, but was not allowed to pitch in the majors during these years due to a combination of race and age discrimination. In 1953, the year he was released by the Browns, Paige was the best relief pitcher (and 2nd or 3rd best pitcher) on the Browns, with a 119 ERA+ in 117 innings. In 1956-57 he was one of the best pitchers in the International League. I conservatively credit him with 40 to 50 WS for these missed seasons.

Among post-1905 pitchers, I rate Paige behind only Johnson, Grove, Alexander and Williams, and it's possible that he may have been as good as any of them. (PHoM 1959)

2. Johnny Mize –
The first Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract said it well, “...truly one of the least-remembered greats. He hit for an outstanding average with awesome power and excellent strike zone judgment, and that doesn’t leave out too much.” (PHoM 1959)

3. Wes Ferrell –
Over an 8 year period from 1929-36 he averaged 20-12, 4.6 wins above team, 264 IP, 127 DERA+, 104 OPS+. (PHoM 1944)

4. Earl Averill –
An outstanding hitter in both the PCL and the AL. Counting 1928, 10 seasons with 24+ WS. (PHoM 1957)

5. Dizzy Dean –
Over a 5 year period from 1932-36 he averaged 24-13, 4.1 wins above team, 306 IP, 130 DERA+. Only about a half dozen post-1920 pitchers can match that kind of 5-year peak, which is why I see Dean’s HoM case as just as strong as Jennings’. (PHoM 1958)

6. Bucky Walters –
The successor to Hubbell and Dean as the top pitcher in the NL. (PHoM 1958)

7. José de la Caridad Méndez –
See my case for Méndez in # 65 on the José Méndez thread. Méndez remains the greatest unelected Cuban player. (PHoM 1938)

8. Hughie Jennings –
In the 1986 BJHBA, James presented two top-100 lists, one for peak value, the other for career value. It seems to me that the HoM should include the top peak players regardless of how they place on career value. Jennings would rank about # 30 on my all-time peak list, so I see him as fully qualified for the HoM. (PHoM 1933)

9. Burleigh Grimes –
Over 13 years from 1918-30 he averaged 18-12, 2.8 wins above team, 265 IP. (PHoM 1940)

10. Hugh Duffy –
8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

11. Ducky Medwick –
7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. Also, 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. (PHoM 1958)

12. Alejandro Oms –
8 seasons with 25+ WS according to the MLEs. And like Averill, he’s missing the first 3-5 seasons of a typical HoM career.

13. Red Ruffing –
7 seasons with 7+ Warp1; 7-2, 2.63 in the World Series.

14. Willard Brown –
He did everything very well except for drawing walks.

15. Charlie Keller –
Four seasons with 31+ WS.

These guys are meritorious too:

16. Biz Mackey Just misses my top 15.

17. Roger Bresnahan
18. Cool Papa Bell
19. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
20. Clark Griffith
21. Buzz Arlett
22. Mel Harder
23. Gavy Cravath
24. Joe Gordon
25. Dobie Moore
26. Leroy Matlock
27. George Burns
28. Dizzy Trout

29. Bobo Newsom – A colorful character and better pitcher than I had thought.

30. Urban Shocker
31. Spottswood Poles

Other new arrivals -

Luke Easter – Like the rest of you, I’m struggling with how to rank him. Conservative credit for WWII and his undocumented career places him at # 32, which seems like a good place to slot him until new information turns up.

I wasn’t too impressed by Bob Elliott. He was a good hitter, but only a B- fielder with an unimpressive peak and a relatively short career. I’ve ranked him behind Leach, Traynor, McGraw, and Williamson at # 73.

As with Paige, I feel Ray Dandridge’s MLEs seriously understate his actual value. There are the usual problems with 1930s conversion factors, and the conversions also show suspiciously low playing time during that period. Also, Dandridge’s MLEs assume that he was an average fielder, whereas my understanding is that he had a reputation as an excellent fielder. Despite these biases, I don’t think Dandridge was as good as the other leading third base candidates, so he won’t come close to my ballot. However, just to be fair to him, I'd appreciate it if Dr. Chaleeko or Chris could take one more shot at his MLEs.

Dutch Leonard, Harry Brecheen, and Max Lanier were good and interesting pitchers, but don’t make my 92-player consideration set.
   74. Brent Posted: September 04, 2005 at 04:44 AM (#1596542)
Other top 10 not on my ballot:

Eppa Rixey –
I have him ranked # 37. Was almost never the best pitcher on any of his teams; in my estimation, being the best number two pitcher of his time just isn’t enough to qualify for the HoM.
   75. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 04, 2005 at 05:34 PM (#1596849)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Satchel Paige-P (n/e): The WS conversions only reinforce the impression that Paige was one of the giants at his position.

2) Johnny Mize-1B (n/e): Another HOF error in judgment will be rectified this "year." Best NL first baseman for 1936, 1937, 1938, and 1939. Best major league first baseman for 1940, close in 1939 and 1941, 1942, 1947, and 1948.

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Alejandro Oms-CF (4): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (4): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (5): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (8): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Tommy Bridges-P (9): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

10) Jake Beckley-1B (10): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

11) Wally Schang-C (11): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Mickey Welch-P (13): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

14) Pete Browning-CF/LF (14): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

15) Frank Chance-1B/C (n/e): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

Medwick, Ruffing, Jennings, Ferrell, Averill, Rixey, and Mackey all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   76. DanG Posted: September 04, 2005 at 10:35 PM (#1597320)
My #1, #7 and #15 were elected. In 1959, Satchel leads the strongest freshman class since 1953, which also includes Mize and Dandridge. Next year, Leon Day is the last of the great "pure" Negro league candidates. Peak candidates Ralph Kiner and Vern Stephens lead the class of 1961.

1) Satchel Paige – Reputation puts him here. Is he really an inner circle guy? Effective MLB pitching in twilight of his career points to greatness.

2) Johnny Mize - A top 100 player all-time.

3) Clark Griffith (2,3,3) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Gets extra credit for excelling in the contraction years 1892-1900. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

4) George Van Haltren (3,4,4) – I’ve been among his three best friends in recent elections. He lost ground in the last election, with Duffy and Childs now tailing him. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Now in his 51st year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

5) Earl Averill (4,5,5) – Ranks above Roush on strength of league and minor league credit, otherwise very similar peaks and careers. James ranks them #14-#15 in centerfield.

6) Eppa Rixey (5,6,6) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

7) Wes Ferrell (6,8,10) – Liking him more and more. Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

8) Red Ruffing (9,11,11) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

9) Tommy Leach (8,9,8) –Rapidly approaching Lost Cause status. He reached personal lows in support last election, finishing in 35th place and appearing on only 7 ballots. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Players with 2100+ games played, 1892-1922:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2383 B. Wallace
5—2308 B. Dahlen
6—2305 T. Cobb
7—2242 F. Clarke
8—2162 E. Collins
9—2156 T. Leach
10—2123 W. Keeler
11—2122 J. Sheckard

10) George Sisler (10,12,12) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

11) Biz Mackey (12,13,13) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available, knocking Bresnahan off after a 28-year run. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz. This is around my HoM cutoff line.

12) Edd Roush (11,10,9) – Still approaching Lost Cause status. What’s the shelf life of a Shiny New Toy? About 16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

13) Joe Medwick (13,14,14) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

14) Jimmy Ryan (14,--,--) – Well, someone has to keep me off the high consensus list. To those 14 voters who had GVH in their top 11 last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes.

15) Hughie Jennings (--,--,--) – Back after six years off. Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be? Most TC/G, 1889-1904, minimum 750 games at shortstop:
1—6.68 H. Jennings
2—6.45 B. Dahlen
3—6.40 B. Wallace
4—6.40 G. Davis
   77. Patrick W Posted: September 05, 2005 at 01:38 AM (#1597506)
Refreshing to see a very good rookie class take the places of an elect-3 backlog election. Bob Elliott starts off just below Hack and Groh, who fall out of the top 15 themselves.

1. Johnny Mize (n/a), N.Y. – St.L (N), 1B (’36-’53) (1959) – He ranks 3rd to date in TrHR (Ruth, Ott). With credit for war seasons – plus the fact that StL decided to trade him away – I think you have to put him in a Giants hat for the HOM. What were the Cards thinking?
2. Satchel Paige (n/a), K.C. (--) SP (’27-’53) (1959) – It sure looks like the reputation doesn’t match up with the numbers (although the numbers do say top 10 pitcher to date). I'm sure quite a bit of this could be explained by the 'star attraction' phenomenon. However, reputation only gets you so far, he can’t be higher than obvious HoMers like Mize.
3. Dutch Leonard (n/a), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – 4 great years before the war, 2 great years after the war, fairly average in between. Dizzy Trout with 500 more IP. That’s enough to jump Ruffing on the ballot.
4. Red Ruffing (3), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
5. Bobby Doerr (4), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) – Reaches Boudreau’s career value but takes about 1700 more AB’s (War Adj. Up) to do so. Boudreau’s peak is once again the difference.
6. Bobo Newsom (n/a), Wash. – Detr. – St.L (A) SP (’34-’47) – I’m actually kinda glad he made the ballot, because it was quite an ordeal to combine his stats during the 8 years he was traded; all that work didn’t go for naught. Like Leonard, his peak was before the war and he had a reprieve in ’46-’47, but he couldn’t capitalize on the lesser competition in ’42,’43,’45. Looking good for the P-Hall, he’ll never make it in the real thing because we won’t be able to decide on a cap.
7. Dizzy Trout (5), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) – Trout is causing me to wonder how much credit I should award to PRAA as opposed to PRAR. Looking at translated careers with a 50/50 split, Trout’s pitching value equals that of Ruffing with over 1500+ fewer IP. My peak factor helps Trout out even more. Is a 50/50 split for RAR/RAA fair or is it too much? Maybe Ruffing is elected before this issue is resolved.
8. Bucky Walters (6), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) – Same boat as Trout.
9. Biz Mackey (7), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday, but the NeL competition has gotten very tough, as seen above.
10. Alejandro Oms (8), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) – I’m worried about the slippery slope here of voting for a non-US based career, but he apparently had great value and did play in the NeL.
11. Willard Brown (9), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – Very closely ranked to Oms, but Alex gets a bigger boost from peak.
12. Joe Gordon (10), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – I have Sewell being slightly better than Gordon with the glove, and Gordon with every other advantage between the two. It’s a slight advantage in most cases, and it’s not enough to rank Gordon any higher on the ballot than here.
13. Joe Sewell (11), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.
14. Dom DiMaggio (12), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 2nd highest war credit bonus to date (Greenberg).
15. Bob Johnson (13), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.

Joe Medwick – #19. Rookie class too good, he should be back on the ballot soon.
Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to equal all the others’ career values.
Wes Ferrell – He’s under consideration.
Earl Averill – I can’t see Averill making the ballot until I can find room for Charlie Keller first. In reality, they both might end up timeline casualties of the HOM despite numbers that say they are among the top 210+ players of all-time.
Eppa Rixey – Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different than a dozen other pitchers who have been summarily reject by the voters (Harder, Passeau, Shocker, Warneke, Grimes, …).

Medwick, Jennings, Ferrell, Averill and Rixey were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year. Anyone else in favor of limiting the explanation rule to players who make more than 60% of the electorates’ ballots?
   78. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:17 AM (#1597557)
1958 ballot:

1. Satchel Paige: If we ever create an “inner circle”, he should be there. Some are saying the legend exceeds the numbers. Considering the legend, how good would those numbers have to be?

2. Johnny Mize: How’d he stay out of the HOF for so long?

3. Red Ruffing: Will he be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams? Career stats obviously aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. Being an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners is a positive in my book. (PHOM 1956)

4. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. Even if the 400-odd win shares get reduced to 350, he’s well ahead of any “glut”. (PHOM 1957)

5. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

7. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia.

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

9. Bobby Doerr: Likewise 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4.

10. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

11. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

12. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Earl, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

13. Clark Griffith: Moves on & off ballot as the crowd thins or thickens. PHOM 1945.

14. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. PHOM 1929.

15. Dick Lundy: Back on the ballot. #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson). 3 votes for balance on this ballot.

Required disclosures:
Wes Ferrell: Impressive peak and a lot of value in a relatively short career. He’s very close.
Earl Averill: Topnotch OF for most of his career. Also very close.
Hughie Jennings: Impressive peak, but not much else. He’s not close.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940).
   79. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:21 AM (#1597567)
I don't know how my whole ballot got underscored. It didn't show up that way when I previewed it.
   80. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:24 AM (#1597573)
Aack! Did this fix it?
   81. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:32 AM (#1597583)
Okay, maybe it's fixed, testing..

(And it's my 1959 ballot, not '58. Proofread it all except the first line...)
   82. Adam Schafer Posted: September 05, 2005 at 04:48 AM (#1597840)
1. Satchel Paige - I initially thought that I'd have Paige 1st and Mize 2nd, but that Paige would be a long way ahead of Mize. The ballot order didn't change, but it sure became a lot closer. Mize was much better than I thought, and Paige might have been a "little" bit more hyped than he should've been. Only a little bit though.

2. Johnny Mize - Almost took the #1 spot on my ballot. I really came to appreciate Mize much more than I already did.

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same people for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Almost was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push him up this high on my ballot.

5. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

6. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

7. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but he was still one stud of a catcher.

8. George Sisler - Even his bad years were still really darn good

9. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

10. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

11. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

12. Clark Griffith - wonderful career. If he hadn't of pitched after 1903 I bet people would look at him differently.

13. Earl Averill - Not the extended career that I like to see most of the time, but great peak and enough career value to merit a spot on my ballot.

14. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

15. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

Waddell, Schang, Rixey and Bresnahan are all just off of my ballot right now
   83. Jeff M Posted: September 05, 2005 at 04:54 AM (#1597851)
1959 Ballot

1. Mize, Johnny – Has the kind of resume that you would think would have him talked about more by old-timers.

2. Paige, Satchel – I have not agonized over specifically quantifying Satch’s numbers. I’m very comfortable he was better than everyone listed lower on my ballot. One of those once-in-a-lifetime players.

3. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

4. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again over the last two weeks, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

5. Jennings, Hughie – I caved. He leaps onto my ballot because many of the changes to my system are designed to give players at key defensive spots a fairer shake.

6. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

7. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

8. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

9. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS.

10. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year. The added blacklisted seasons were somewhat offset by my new higher AA discount.

11. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

12. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

13. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

14. Averill, Earl – Decided to give him minor league credit, which I have mixed feelings about.

15. Sewell, Joe – A re-appearance on the ballot. He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he’s better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that’s a pre-requisite to the HoM.
   84. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: September 05, 2005 at 06:16 AM (#1597944)
Sheesh, it's a nice, boring election, where did all these complicated guys come from. :) To nobody's surprise Paige and Mize are this year's PHoM.

1. Satchel Paige (new) One of the most iconic figures in baseball history (arguably the most iconic pitcher), and as far as we can tell the reality's not THAT far off from the legend.

2. Johnny Mize (new) One of the top 10 1Bmen of all time, he was consistently great for a decade. Also inspired my favorite baseball doggerel:

"Your arm is gone, your legs likewise,
But not your eyes, Mize, not your eyes."

3. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (4) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Wes Ferrell (5) His peak is pretty huge, but his career is short for a HoMer. Dean's 5-year peak might be better (depends on your Uber-System), but there's no argument that Ferrell's 8-year run was a cut above. Made my PHoM in 1958.

6. Quincy Trouppe (new) Believe me, I've wanted to support a catcher candidate, but I never felt like there was one worthy until now. I know the Mexican translations aren't as certain as some of the others, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good.

(6A. Lou Boudreau)

7. Dick Redding (7) At this stage of the Negro League pitcher analysis, nobody from the crowd has moved ahead of Cannonball Dick to me. I'm not sure the teens need many more pitchers, but better him than Rixey, or one of the hard-to-discern 30's OF.

8. Willard Brown (8) On the one hand, I’m not really sure he belongs. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the other OF on the ballot.

9. Joe Sewell (11) While I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). They're not that far apart to me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

10. Red Ruffing (9) I might have been overrating him, hard to be sure. Need to consider his argument more carefully

11. Earl Averill (10) His record appears close to the old CF glut, with a better OPS+ and peak, but a shorter career. Adding in the PCL credit puts him just ahead. The closer I look, the less certain I feel about this, though.

12. Bob Elliott (new) For everyone who said Hack fans should be supporting him, I agree. OTOH, his usage is comparable to Leach's, but I think his defensive value is demonstrably lower, and he played through the war. I was sure Hack was HoM-worthy, I'm not sure yet about Elliott.

13. Cupid Childs (12) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). He does look awfully similar to Gordon, and is clearly behind Herman. Made my PHoM in 1932.
(13A Bill Terry)

14. Dobie Moore (32) For a long time I've had him just behind Jennings, but this week I took another look and decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer.

15. George Van Haltren (15) Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy.
(15A Max Carey)

16. Joe Medwick (13) It's hard for me to see much difference between him, Averill and Johnson. It may come down to whether you trust WS or WARP, and I try to look at both, so I wind up confused.
17. Bob Johnson (14) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.
18. Alejandro Oms (16) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
19. Eppa Rixey (23) I'm definitely not rushing to put in any more pitchers from his era, but his numbers are impressive. Doesn't do great in my pitcher ranking system, but I'm not sure why.
20. Cool Papa Bell (20) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
21. Biz Mackey (18) I am comfortable that he's ahead of Bresnahan, Schang and Lombardi, but those numbers still aren't that striking, and they don't seem to match up to Trouppe's. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
22. Jose Mendez (21) Great peak, but I still think Redding's distinctly better.
23. Gavvy Cravath (20) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him.
24. Ben Taylor (19) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now, and I'd been overlooking the pitching. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
(24A Sam Thompson, 24B Rube Foster)
25. Jake Beckley. (22) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
26. Bobby Doerr (24) Could be a little low, but he's clearly behind Herman on career and peak. I'm not really sure why his WS/WARP totals come out so much better than Gordon's, so I'm not putting him much above him.
27. Dick Lundy (25) Close to Sewell, but doesn't quite get there.
28. Bucky Walters (26) Could move up some more, but it's hard to seperate him from Dean.
29. Jimmy Ryan (27) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident.
30. Rube Waddell (29) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
31. Joe Gordon (28) I see his value as pretty close to Childs', but Childs was the best 2Bman of the 1890s, and Gordon isn't definitively the best of the 1940s (although James picked him)
32. George Sisler
33. Burleigh Grimes
34. Hughie Jennings (30) His best years were better than Moore's, but Moore sustained it longer. To me, that's more impressive.
35. Charlie Keller
36. Spotswood Poles
37. Dizzy Dean
38. Ernie Lombardi
39. Vic Willis
40. Bobby Veach

42. Luke Easter - It does look like he was an amazing power hitter, but I just can't extrapolate enough to get him near the ballot at this point.

44. Ray Dandridge - I raise a stink over in his thread, but I can't put him any higher than this right now. I'm not willing to totally reject his reputation yet, though.
   85. Ken Fischer Posted: September 05, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1598064)
1959 Ballot

This ballot is a no-brainer at the top…but I am still puzzled where to put Dandridge. I’ve included my top 20 to show where I place the required disclosures not on my ballot (Ferrell, Averill & Rixey). They just miss.

1-Stachel Paige
Perhaps the best pitcher of all-time…not based on a lot of stats but word of mouth. Name is mentioned in hallowed territory with Johnson, S.J. Williams, Mathewson, Alexander, Grove and Young. People who saw him play say the comparison is worthy.

2-Johnny Mize 338 WS
Mize was a monster player. He is remembered my some writers as a pinch hitter for the Yankees…he was much more than that. Hank Greenberg was his comp…and Mize was in the top 10 in career slugging pct. when he retired.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

4-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

5-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
He should make it in pretty soon. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

12-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

13-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

14-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

15-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.


16-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

17-Earl Averill 280 WS
He’s penalized some by a short career. Earl gave Indians fans something to cheer about until Bob Feller came along.

18-Wes Ferrell 233 WS
6-20 win seasons in 8 years during the live ball era. Wes is usually short changed because of his high ERA but it’s an unfair when compared to dead ball counterparts.

19-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

20-Eppa Rixey 315 WS
Rixey matches up well with Grimes & Faber. He had a long and interesting career. He is known for his time with the Reds but made it into the Series only once with the Phils early in his career.

Johnny Lindell was a distant cousin of mine (my grandmother & his mother were first cousins). I met him once. Maybe not worthy of a HOM vote...but a nice man who had a very interesting career with the Yankees, Cardinals, Pirates and Phillies as pitcher turn outfielder turn Merchant Marine back as outfielder turn pitcher. His 1952 season with the Hollywood Stars in the PCL was incredible. In his later years he worked for the Angels Speaker's Bureau.
   86. EricC Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:11 PM (#1598075)
1959 ballot.

Elliott, Newsom, and Dutch Leonard (1933-1953) make my Hall of the Very Good.

1. Satchel Paige A legendary pitcher with great power and longevity.

2. Johnny Mize An inner circle player or close to it, who is overshadowed by DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial, and who lost 3 years to WWII.

3. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Bresnahan and Lombardi are the only other 20th century ML catchers who belong in the discussion right now, but Bresnahan is hurt by NL weakness and career shortness and Lombardi is hurt by the WWII discount.

4. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is a HoM-worthy career. The number of seasons among the top N players in league demonstrate a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, one's point of view on AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his standing in the all-time rank-o-meter.

5. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey, IMO, is the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length, more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

6. Joe Gordon With all the talk about giving WWII credit, will it actually make any difference between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons.

7. Bobby Doerr Another great 2B.

8. Earl Averill Top ML CF of the 1930s.

9. Charlie Keller Peak, peak, peak, but will end up one of the few 30 WS/162 players in history not to make the HoM. Very few full-time seasons due to war and injuries, but was actually one of the most durable players when available 1940-1946. For those who thought that Greenberg, with a 158 OPS+ in 1394 games and 31.0 WS/162 was a shoo-in even without war credit, why not at least consider Keller, with a 152 OPS+ in 1170 games and a 30.0 WS/162 (altough true that his war year stats are inflated)?

10. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in the 1930-1943 AL.

11. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, like Sam Rice, but with outstanding speed.

12. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons help to boost him above the other high-peak short career pitchers.

13. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak.

14. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career.

15. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers.

Jennings , Ferrell , and Rixey were good too.
   87. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:21 PM (#1598081)
I don't know how my whole ballot got underscored. It didn't show up that way when I previewed it.

It was Patrick's fault. For some reason, he had the command at the bottom of his ballot.
   88. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2005 at 02:42 PM (#1598088)
42 ballots tabulated.

Still missing ballots from: PhillyBooster, Al Peterson, Kelly from SD, favre, the Commish, Michael Bass, Max Parkinson, Mike Webber, David C. Jones. Carl G., Craig B., and Flaxseed.
   89. Mike Webber Posted: September 05, 2005 at 04:22 PM (#1598165)
Mine is post #37
   90. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2005 at 05:22 PM (#1598275)
Sorry about that, Mike. That gives us 43 ballots.
   91. Al Peterson Posted: September 05, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1598362)
1959 ballot, filled with the usual suspects and some new ones as well.

1. Satchel Paige (-). Maybe he was a self promoter who wasn’t the greatest who ever lived. I do know that many a player said Satch was the real deal and when ballplayers are universal in their respect then I shouldn’t try to change history.

2. Johnny Mize (-). Big Cat, he hit that little ball real far.

3. Joe Medwick (2).
I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

4. Earl Averill (3). Highly productive for a centerfielder, he started ML career late after playing semi-pro in Washington state and then three years in the PCL. By comparison to Bob Johnson, Averill had teams which outperformed Pythag W-L by 18 games (1929-39).

5. Clark Griffith (4). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

6. Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

7. Dick Redding (6). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

8. Bobby Doerr (7). Herman’s election how gives a comp in the HOM.

9. Red Ruffing (8). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

10. Jimmy Ryan (9). Quality OF for extended time period.

11. Hughie Jennings (15). Best in baseball for a few years in the 1890s. Rough time to try and get a long career going. Especially when you have a particular skill of getting hit with a beanball.

12. Pete Browning (11). Born hitter, also born with numerous other problems which drag his stock down.

13. Biz Mackey (12).
His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost.

14. Eppa Rixey (14). A nod to tilting my ballot toward pitchers a bit more.

15. Cool Papa Bell (17). I’m going to throw in another outfielder. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

16-20: Van Haltren, Roush, Chance, Mullane, Berger
21-25: McGraw, Dobie Moore, Waddell, Poles, Leach
26-30: Easter, Childs, Byrd, Duffy, F. Jones
31-35: Cicotte, Bridges, Sewell, Mendez, Trout
36-40: Willis, Veach, Lundy, Roy Thomas, Willard Brown
41-45: Leonard, Hack Wilson, Ben Taylor, Bob Elliot, Ferrell
46-50: Gordon, Beckley, Sisler, C. Mays, Trouppe

Top Returnees: Ferrell hangs in the top 50 but I’m still not seduced by the hitting/pitching combo. Willard Brown is a fine player- there are other Negro Leagues I have before him so lets get them in first.

New guys: Easter has a little too much projecting going on for my taste. Another woulda/shoulda/coulda candidate we’ll chew on for some time. Bob Elliot and Dutch Leonard get into the top 50. Bobo Newsom deserved a better career than what he got.
   92. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: September 05, 2005 at 08:32 PM (#1598793)
Went through the ballot from 1958 and started adding back players that aren't top 15, but were somehow dropped from my consideration set. It now stands at 54 players. Please give me feedback if you see inconsistencies.

1. Satchel Paige (n/e) - Either the best, or the 2nd best pitcher from the Negro Leagues. The thing that sticks out about him in my mind is Bill James' comment from the NHBA.

He says, "Yeah, I know there is a question about whether Satchel was the greatest pitcher in the history of the league. In the literature of the league there are numerous place where people say that Bullet Joe Rogan was better . . . or Hilton Smith was just as good, or Chet Brewer was the ace of the staff. Dave Malarcher said that Bill Foster was "the greatest pitcher of our time, not even barring Satchel." There was a poll of Negro League veterans in 1952 which picked Smokey Joe Williams over Satchel as the greatest pitcher in the history of the league . . . But you know why read all of that stuff? Satchel was the frame of reference."

He then goes into a similar comparison of a few pre-1920 pitchers (George Baumgardner, Ed Reulbach, George Zettlein, Charlie Sweeney, Junior Ortiz, Cy Young, Smokey Joe Wood) and how hard they threw compared to Walter Johnson. He noted that Johnson was always the frame of reference there.

The numbers are pretty impressive too. He's an easy #1, even with Mize on the ballot.

2. Johnny Mize (n/e) - What a hitter. Career 158 OPS+ despite losing his age 30-32 seasons to the war. Without the war he's a 2500 hit, 425 HR guy with a career OBP 50 points over the league average and a SLG 165 points above the league.

3. Eppa Rixey (2) - If a few things out of his control were different (like the elimination of WWI), Rixey would likely have won 300 games. A Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer.

4. Jake Beckley (3) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.

5. Red Ruffing (4) - Did very well in my revaluation. I wasn't giving him enough credit for his hitting, and I was underrating his pitching.

6. Gavy Cravath (5) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project. I've dropped him a bit this week, I think I may have been giving him a little too much extra credit.

7. Luke Easter (n/e) - This is a conservative ranking (for me anyway, some see it as very liberal I'm sure). There's a case that could be made that if I'm going to rank him at all he should either be #3 or off the ballot. But I think this is fair as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections, though I doubt I would. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-53.

8. Charley Jones (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL.

9. Clark Griffith (8) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity from Griffith? I've dropped Jones and Griffith below the three 1B this time.

10. George Van Haltren (9) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 30, very tough to evaluate.

11. Tommy Leach (10) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

12. Ernie Lombardi (11) - I was convinced that his OPS+ does overstate his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.

13. Bill Monroe (12) - I still really like this guy.

14. Joe Medwick (14) - Has to rank ahead of Averill and Roush, at least based on MLB (I'm thinking of Averill's PCL credit).

15. Biz Mackey (15) - After further review he does appear to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.

Honorable mention:

16. Cool Papa Bell (16) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?

17. Joe Gordon (17) - Clearly below Herman, clearly above the rest of the 2B pack.

18. Bobby Doerr (18) - Too close to call with Gordon right now.

19. Wally Schang (19) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.

20. Wes Ferrell (20) - Great pitcher (for a few years) and good hitter (for a pitcher). I wish I could get him higher, but I can't say I'd want his career over any of those ranked ahead of him. I think his hitting trumps Harder's career value, but it's close and could go either way.

21. Earl Averill (21) - I still think I'm pegging him too low, but don't see why I should move him higher. How much PCL credit should I be giving him?

22. Bucky Walters (--) - I was underrating him. I took a look at his <a hre="">RSI page</a>, he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a very close call. I'm leaving Ferrell ahead for now because two of Walters' big years were during the war, but these two are extremely close.

23. George Sisler (22) - I think it is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.

24. Quincy Trouppe (--) - Didn't realize he was eligible in 1958, thought he was a 1959er, wouldn't have affected the ballot. Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.

25. Bob Elliott (n/e) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).

26. Burleigh Grimes (--) - Had dropped him out of consideration wrongly. Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.

27. Roger Bresnahan (--) - Somehow got dropped, but is better than many that were in my consideration set. Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.

28. Bob Johnson (--) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.

29. Dom DiMaggio (23) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.

30. Joe Sewell (24) - I'd been underrating him. Most of you were overrating him. We're getting closer to a consensus it appears. Very glad he wasn't rushed in. A little bump this week. The more I think about it, I think I'd take his career over Hughie's.

31. Hughie Jennings (25) - I'm feeling a little more career value oriented of late, Jennings obviously drops on those days. He's down a little more this week.

32. Willard Brown (26) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.

33. Jimmy Ryan (27) - Career not as impressive as I used to think but still a good player for a long time.

34. Ed Williamson (--) - His up and down saga with me continues.

35. Dick Redding (--) - can't see him as better than Grimes, but he's back on the board.

36. Rube Waddell (--) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.

37. Mike Griffin (28) - a great defensive player. He could hit too. He's been forgotten here . . .

38. Hugh Duffy (29) - not quite as good as the glut above him.

39. Edd Roush (30) - Took a bit of a hit with my re-evaluation.

40. Ben Taylor (31) - had slipped off my radar. He's pretty close to Beckley, but this is a tight ballot.

41. Dobie Moore (32) - Is this too low? Convince me I should have him higher.

42. Dizzy Trout (33) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. I didn't realize he was this good.

43. Mel Harder (34) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.

44. Vic Willis (35) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.

45. Dick Lundy (36) - Back on the radar. Not as good as Sewell.

46. Alejandro Oms (37) - Glad he's been brought back to the forefront, but I can't see ranking him any higher.

47. George Scales (38) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?

48. Charlie Keller (39) - Nice player, but I couldn't put him above Jennings could I? I will look at him more closely next week, but at best I could see him a little above Henrich.

49. Pete Browning (--) - He's on the board again, but I cannot see ranking him over Keller. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation.

50. Cupid Childs (--) - Should at least be back on the radar.

51. Larry Doyle (--) - Ditto.

52. John McGraw (--) - More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.

53. Tommy Henrich (40) - I could see him higher, but don't ever see him elected.

54. Lefty Gomez (41) - Very nice career. Not as nice as Ferrell's. 177-114 RSI record, which is excellent. Too bad he didn't pitch longer.


Jose Mendez - I reconsidered him, but I still see him behind Gomez (I like the Hippo Vaughn comparison on his thread, if that's off, please tell me why), and I don't see the need to go lower with the rankings.

Bobo Newsom - RSI record adjusts to 232-201, as he had the worst RSI of anyone with 400 career starts.

Dutch Leonard - some good years, but his ERA+ is overstated due to all of the unearned runs. That's part bad defense, part knuckleball.

Harry Breechen - lower peak, but extremely similar to Dizzy Dean or Addie Joss. One helluva pitcher when out there, too bad his career wasn't longer.

Max Lanier - another very good pitcher with a short career.
   93. Michael Bass Posted: September 05, 2005 at 09:45 PM (#1598904)
WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

Leonard and Elliot are close, but not quite. Elliot comps to Hack, who also was not on my ballot. Trouppe...not sold on him yet. I will look closer at him. Catchers are so hard. Easter did not play long enough, and he does not get much credit for me for his pre-documented career. I will take a closer look at him eventually as well; very possible his documented career deserves a very high ranking. Dandrige and Wright are not close, and unlike Trouppe and Easter, I am confident in that assessment.

1. Satchel Paige (new) - His career numbers are outstanding. His peak numbers look plenty good to me, and his career is almost certainly understated by our translation methods. He is overrated...not a serious candidate for greatest pitcher of all time, and Williams was better. But still an easy, obvious HOMer.

2. Johnny Mize (new) - I don't think he's an inner-circle guy; in fact, he needed every ounce of fair war credit to top the peak trio below. But he's very, very good, and a well-deserving HOMer.

3. Wes Ferrell (2) - I really like this guy. Has the monster peak, like Vance, but his prime is longer. 3 great seasons and 3 more really, really good seasons are enough to get a pitcher to the top no-brainer position on my ballot. Peak so high, and long enough, that his career is in there with the best of the non-immortals.

4. Hughie Jennings (3) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

5. Dobie Moore (4) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

I'm finally going with my gut here. He did not have a super-long career, but he had a monster peak, and his career was all prime (well, we don't know about the Army years, which he just gets some vague credit for, but you get the picture). The comparison to Boudreau, moves him up this high. Dobie is so overlooked it's unbelievable.

6. José Méndez (6) - I like him more and more the more I read about him. As far as I can tell, the Cuban leagues, where he was by all accounts one of the best player, if not the best, were simply loaded with talent. HOMers, HOM candidates, and people who were good enough to at least merit mention were all over this league. And because there were only 4 teams, they composed a high percentage of the rosters. Maybe I'm going crazy here, but it seems to me that the level of competition in that 4 team league during that era was quite possibly as good as the majors. And Méndez excelled in it.

I think this is the electorate's single most underrated player. This is in part because he does not show up so much in the Negro League awards and polls, because his best work was in Cuba, at a time when all of the best Negro League players were playing in Cuba. Compare Mendez's career to Ed Walsh who, deservingly, cruised into the HOM. Was Mendez's pitching height as high as Walsh's? Likely not, but it wasn't that far off. Some of that gap is closed by Mendez's hitting, which was excellent for a pitcher. Some more of that gap is closed by Mendez having a little value after his peak (when he came back from the injury, he had one solid season left in him), something Walsh had zero of. I'd rate Walsh above Mendez, but so much difference that Walsh flies in on his first ballot while Mendez struggles to break double figure ballots? Doesn't make sense to me.

7. Bobby Doerr (7) - This is the point of the big dropoff, after which I'm no longer sure anyone is a HOMer, and the next 20-30 slots are kind of a big jumble. Doerr is not, in view, close to Boudreau, but he was a great defender at 2B, and has something to like for all voters.

8. Red Ruffing (8) - I love these hitting pitchers if you can't tell. Just not enough peak to rank higher than this. I had him above Moore/Wells earlier, but I can't justify that at all now that I'm actually posting. Still, a good strong Lyons-style candidate in value terms.

9. Earl Averill (9) - Moving on up; peak, prime, career. Fielding is in question, but I use WARP which thinks much less of his fielding than Win Shares, so I'm not too worried about overranking him. This gives him one year of minor league credit. Very good player.

10. Bucky Walters (10) - Impressive peak and prime. Ruffing's career advantage trumps Walters' peak advantage in this case, because of war factors, which add slightly to Ruffing and subtract slightly more from Walters.

11. Dizzy Dean (11) - Well, I'm a peak guy. And this guy has it. Prime/career not even as long as Ferrell's, so he's midballot rather than top ballot.

12. Joe Sewell (12) - Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense. I do love the shortstops, I admit. His offense isn't quite good enough to justify higher, but it was good enough to demand a ballot spot.

13. Clark Griffith (13) - Has a little career, a little peak, some quality prime, a little for everyone. He also pitched in a tougher league than those who immediately preceeded and followed him.

14. Willard Brown (14) - For Williard, I compared him to Oms and Suttles. With reasonable war credit, he is clearly, though not substantially, better than Oms. I do not think he was as good as Suttles. Suttles was below this on my ballot, but a second look at him tells me I underrated him some. Anyway, he had a nice career once war credit is in, and some nice peak and prime as well.

15. Joe Gordon (15) - I like him a touch better than the group, though not that much. Seems like lots of folks have him top 20-25, and that's give or take about where I have him.. To me, he's basically Sewell lite once you add a touch of war credit. Not an overly long career or overly high peak, but all prime.


16. Bob Johnson (16) - Little bit like Averill, though no minor league credit for Bob. He could hit, field (though in a corner). No peak like Averill, but career is all prime, with the possibly exception of 1945 if you slice up his stats (I think 1944 was so good that even with a steep discount, that's a strong year).

17. Dick Redding (17) - Of similar value to Bill Foster, no longer see him as good as Méndez. Just not quite the peak, and for all the talk about a long career I don't see that either. Still, very good pitcher on the second tier, right in the mix for those last 50 HOM slots.

18-20: Sisler, Browning, Mackey
21-25: Trout, Medwick, Leonard, Elliot, Oms
26-30: Shocker, Dunlap, Monroe. Matlock, Buffinton
31-35: Williamson, Bartell, F. Jones, Waddell, Scales
36-40: Lundy, Taylor, H. Smith, Passeau, Veach
41-45: Bond, Klein, Uhle, Poles, Byrd
46-50: Van Haltren, Harder, Warneke, Berger, Bell

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Medwick - Not as good as Bob Johnson in my view. Peak not as high as you might think, and career is shortish. How can he rank ahead of Sisler, who had a similar career shape, but a much higher peak? #22, nonetheless, he is not a terrible choice. Just not a prime one.

Mackey - #20. Mackey's career was really not all that long (minimal credit for the back half when he couldn't hit at all). But he had a nice prime in the first half, and was certainly an A catcher at a minimum. I do hope to vote for him someday, the backlog just keeps getting longer.

Rixey - You all know my feelings on him. The Beckley of pitchers, neither should be within miles of the HOM.

Sisler - #18. I like him a lot, clearly superior to Medwick IMO. I think we'll get him back on my ballot when the backlog starts to clear out in the 60s. At least I hope so.
   94. PhillyBooster Posted: September 05, 2005 at 10:03 PM (#1598922)
I only voted for 2 of the 3 electees, so my newcomers replace my oldgoers. Easter, Trouppe, Bob Elliott, and Oms remain in my "still processing" stage, where I could vote for them at some point at any location in the weeks to come, but at this point am not convinced that they were better than any of the 15 players I voted for. I've been operating the bottom of my ballot like chess ratings where in order to move up, you've got to beat the guy ahead of you. Tie goes to the guy already at that position, because I'm more comfortable with that placement.

1. Satchel Paige (n/e) -- He was mella', but so was Campanella, Newcomb and Doby too.

2. Johnny Mize (n/e) -- Were Satchel Paige to look over his shoulder, the closest thing to something gaining on him would be Johnny Mize.

3. Eppa Rixey (1) -- Lots of way above average innings. Lots of solid seasons. War credit. Rixey could end up on the top of my ballot for a loooong time.

4. Jake Beckley (2) -- I consider myself equal parts "peak" and "career", but I think this peak-minded electorate is leaving me with lots of the older career guys on top. On my "more uniquer" scale, failure to elect Beckley will make him the only member of the top 10 in triples (his is #4) to not make it. The next guy who won't make it is Sam Rice (#14)/ Ed Konetchy (#15). Beckley is Rice/Konetchy Plus, and deserves to be in another level.

5. Gavy Cravath (3) – Including high minors play, over 350 WS with a great peak.

6. Jose Mendez (4) -- Will Martin Dihigo become the only Cuban pitcher in the Hall of Merit? Mendez and Luque appear to be my main "lost cause" picks that are pulling down my Consensus Score. Great league with great pitchers. Relatively small league depresses stats (all teams are "All-Star" teams.

7. Mickey Welch (5) -- Will the 1880s soon appear underrepresented?

8. Dolf Luque (7) -- See Mendez. I am the only vote for Luque, and I think it's because no one else is giving him "excluded for racism" points. Anyway, I think it would become obvious if the stat I was looking for existed, but apparently it doesn't. The stat I wish existed would be the opposite of the "Most Similar by Age" list, where you can now see that at 28, Luque was "Most Similar" to Otis Lambeth, a career 11-9 pitcher who pitched his final 7 innings at age 28. Thank you very much, I learned a lot. My new stat would be "Most Similar FROM Age", so that instead of looking at Luque's career from birt to age 28, you could look at it from Age 28 onward only. I can eyeball that he had about 3100 innings with an ERA+ of almost 120 from Age 28 onward, but it's hard to make his case without seeing who that is comparable to. Better than Red Ruffing, I'd say. More like Early Wynn, maybe. It's hard to eyeball, but that fact is that Luque made the Top 100 in IP despite being excluded from the Game for the first years of his career. Give him a few years of "Negro League equivalency," and Luque should be receiving a lot more than "one" vote.

9. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

10. Biz Mackey (10) -- long time studier, first time voter. I'm confortable enough to put him up here with Bresnahan, but not enough to consider him better.

11. Cupid Childs (11) -- More love for the 1890s.

12. Clark Griffith (12) -- Never the best pitcher, but always near the top.

13. Cannonball Dick Redding (13) -- Yet another second-best who is better than all the third-bests below.

14. Hugh Duffy (14) -- usually a 'tweener (on ballot one year, off the next). With an "elect 3" year keep him on for good?

15. Hughie Jennings (15) -- in my 16-20 group last year. As I dig down into it, I find myself more impressed with a guy who was truly great for a little while, over guy who were almost great for longer.

16-25 (holding pen): Averill, Doerr, Ruffing, Ed Williamson, Bob Elliott, C.P. Bell, Alejandro Oms, George van Haltren, Joe Gordon, Luke Easter
   95. OCF Posted: September 05, 2005 at 10:56 PM (#1598974)
I have 46 votes cast (not 47, which is a possible discrepancy with the last thing John said). The only people who voted last year but not yet this year are Flaxseed, Jeff M, and Kelly from SD. There are some others out there, but they didn't vote last year either: Carl G, Craig B, David C. Jones, Max Parkinson.

There are 73 players who have received votes, which is a new record. We have unity in the top two, but after that, wild backlog disagreement.
   96. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2005 at 11:09 PM (#1598982)
I have 46 votes cast (not 47, which is a possible discrepancy with the last thing John said).

I just recounted what I have and what is on this thread and I still come up with 47, OCF.
   97. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2005 at 11:11 PM (#1598986)
The only people who voted last year but not yet this year are Flaxseed, Jeff M, and Kelly from SD.

Check out post #83, OCF.
   98. OCF Posted: September 05, 2005 at 11:33 PM (#1599018)
Thanks. 47 it is, and I should use Adam Shafer's and Jeff M's actual ballots, not some weird hybrid of the two.
   99. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2005 at 11:41 PM (#1599023)
and I should use Adam Shafer's and Jeff M's actual ballots, not some weird hybrid of the two.

   100. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 06, 2005 at 12:00 AM (#1599040)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

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