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Monday, October 24, 2005

1963 Ballot

Newbies: Roy Campanella, George Kell, Walker Cooper, Artie Wilson, and Piper Davis.

Returnees: Monte Irvin, Wes Ferrell, Red Ruffing, Joe Medwick, Eppa Rixey, Biz Mackey, Clark Griffith, and George Sisler.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 24, 2005 at 02:19 AM | 115 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 24, 2005 at 02:04 PM (#1701187)
hot topics
   2. karlmagnus Posted: October 24, 2005 at 02:49 PM (#1701248)
The Double Curse of Eddie Cicotte may be lifted this week, the first leg having gone last year. NOW will you guys put him in the HOM!

Campanella a little better than Schang and Lombardi, so somewhat above both, though not in the top few (I don’t believe in credit back to his age-17 season in 1939.) Kell not as good as Elliott, so off the bottom of consideration set.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4-6-4-4-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. Roy Campanella. About the same number of hits as Schang, when extra credit (but back to 22, not 17) and normalization are done (he quit pretty early.) OPS+124, TB+BB/PA .540, TB+BB/Outs .810 Better than Schang and Lombardi, will doubtless go in easily.

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6-5-7-5-5-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

8. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9-8-7-9) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11-10-9-11) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: October 24, 2005 at 02:50 PM (#1701251)
11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. Monte Irvin. Only 731 hits at OPS+ of 126 in his ML career. Chris Cobb projections indicate about 2200 hits at OPS+143 with war credit. TB+BB/PA .532, TB+BB/Outs .838 in ML. Moved him up a bit on Chris’ projections.

13. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-11-14-13-11-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

14. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

15. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back on ballot after a few years just off.


16. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly, so now a little below. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

17. (N/A-10-12) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

18. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

19. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

23. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

24. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
25.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
26. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
27. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
28. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
29. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
30. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
31. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
32. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
33. (N/A) Heinie Manush
34. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
35. Bob Elliott. Up a bit on re-inspection – not that it’ll make a hueg difference, probably
36. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
37. (N/A) Dick Lundy
38. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle. Normalize 1871-77 season by season to 130 games and he gets 1,577 hits, only 15 less than Pike in 1 less season. Better peak, too. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .751, though this, like McVey and Pike’s figures, includes no “decline” phase. Also, he was a 3B. Why did Meyerle quit? -- unlike Pike, he was nowhere near done in 1877. OPS+164 vs 152 for McVey and 155 for Pike.
39. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
40. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
41. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
42. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
43. (N/A) Vern Stephens.
44. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
45. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Joe Gordon.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Jules Thomas.
62. Wilbur Cooper
63. Bruce Petway.
64. Jack Clements
65. Bill Monroe
66. Jose Mendez
67. Herb Pennock
68. Chief Bender
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Jesse Tannehill
71. Bobby Veach
72. Lave Cross
73. Tommy Leach.
74. Tom York
   4. Dag Nabbit: Sockless Psychopath Posted: October 24, 2005 at 03:07 PM (#1701284)
1. Roy Campanella. Great bat, great D. 3 MVPs plus Negro League credit? Dang. Was he Ernie to Jackie Robinson's Bert?

2. Clark Griffith. Bill James didn't list him in his Top 100 pitchers, let alone his top 100 players. Type in his name at b-ref and it takes you to his managing career. Never mentioned among the greatest. He just might be the most underrated player in baseball history.

3. Cool Papa Bell. I try to balance the info in the threads with general reputation. Also, I think the MLEs might underrate him (see my comment about Ichiro in the Bell thread).

4. Monte Irvin. Yea, I do think he was that good. With apologies to Buck O'Neill, Irvin's the last suriving great Negro Leaguer.

5. Biz Mackey. Better than Schang, and I have Schang on the ballot. IIRC, he's the #1 choice of both experts and players in the "Cool Papas and Double Duties" book as best Negro Leaguer not in Cooperstown.

6. Eppa Rixey. I like the big long career guys (that's the only reason Eppa even makes my ballot). I'm giving him a little WWI credit. I see him as not quite as good in his era as Mickey Welch was in his era.

7. Jake Beckley. Not a real peak, but a very long and very deep prime. Add that in with his career value and here he is.

8. Wes Ferrell. He was a monster for a while, and lasted just long enough to rack up some decent career numbers.

9. George Van Haltren Very good player for an extended period of time who could do numerous things well. Nice career. Nice peak. Could pitch.

10. Joe Gordon. Childs, Gordon, and Doyle are all very close in my mind.

11. Larry Doyle. Bat more than makes up for his glove. The Jeff Kent of his day?

12. Ralph Kiner. Ridiculous prime. The Pete Browning of the 20th century.

13. Pete Browning. With the exception of Kiner, the best pure hitter out there. Even adjusting for quality of competition and he's a monster.

14. George Scales. Going through the old Negro Leaguer threads, the info there really impressed me. Sounded like a good fielder, and a very good hitter, with a nice prime, and decent career numbers.

15. Ernie Lombardi. Great hitting prime at a tough position to hit at. Terrible defense, though.

Off-Ballot Productions Present:

17. George Sisler. He's got two things I really like: great prime/peak, and good total career values. Falls in re-evaluation. Need a bit more O from a first baseman.

22. Red Ruffing. Good pitcher, but should've had better numbers for his career.

24. Joe Medwick. Great bat, but for a LFr, I'd need it to be great a little longer, or a little greater, and less of it during WWII.
   5. ronw Posted: October 24, 2005 at 03:10 PM (#1701289)
1963 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Roy Campanella Not really a difficult choice. Among the elite catchers of all time.

2. Monte Irvin I like what I have read and heard. Seems to be the real thing.

3. Pete Browning I have been convinced that he was more unique than Redding, and thus deserves a higher spot. Failing to electing Pete is like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

4. Dick Redding I think he is like an Eddie Plank rather than an Eppa Rixey for career value. As a long-career flamethrower, maybe he is even a Nolan Ryan, although maybe with this sabermetric crowd I shouldn’t say that.

5. Bob Elliott Offensively, as of 1962 he is 2nd all-time to Stan Hack using unadjusted BWS. In fact, even with adjustments, he only drops below Frank Baker to 3rd. I think that everyone (including me) has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

6. Larry Doyle I’m surprised here, but I looked carefully at offense this week, and saw that offensively Doyle easily measures up to our existing bottom-tier 2B electees Frisch, Herman, Richardson and McPhee. He is below them defensively, but offensive output puts him ahead of Childs, Lazzeri, Evers, Doerr, and Gordon, despite some league-quality concerns.

7. Cupid Childs More 1890’s infielder’s please.

8. John McGraw Mugsy’s RCAA domination of the rough-and-tumble 1890’s, tells me we missed him. Offensively, his value is similar to Frank Baker’s minus 476 games, some of which could be made up by schedule-length adjustments. I now believe that fielding is the reason why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

9. Dobie Moore We’ve missed him.

10.Biz Mackey I think we may be missing some offense. A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a bit lower peak.

11. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

12. Tommy Bridges Seems remarkably similar to Whitey Ford.

13. Wes Ferrell Fine pitcher peak.

14. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

15. George Sisler Not much new to say.


Joe Medwick – #17, now ahead of Bob Johnson. I found out that they have the same BWS/162, 21.8. However, Johnson played 1863 games, while Medwick played 1984 games, so Medwick’s unadjusted BWS total (267.1) slightly surpasses Johnson. Medwick has the highest unadjusted BWS total of any eligible save Jake Beckley (278.9).

Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good. Still, I think I would rather have Lefty Gomez. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM P except Red Faber.

Eppa Rixey – I’ve supported him in the past, but now I like a little more peak.

Clark Griffith – #18.

George Kell – Very similar to Larry Gardner. I see them in the Jimmy Collins, Pie Traynor mold right at the in/out line. Collins is the best fielder and is in the HOM, with the other three on the outside.

Walker Cooper – Fine career, but too many are ahead of him.

Artie Wilson – I thought he would have had a bit more pop. I wonder if we are unfairly penalizing Negro Leaguers for lack of walks. Still, if I discovered we were so penalizing players, Dick Lundy would get elected ahead of Wilson.

Piper Davis – About the same comments as his Barons double-play partner.
   6. OCF Posted: October 24, 2005 at 03:55 PM (#1701383)
1963 ballot.

1. Roy Campanella (new) Not really inner circle, but he's pitted here against the backlog.
2. Red Ruffing (2, 3, 1, 2, 3) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
3. Larry Doyle (3, 4, 3, 2, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
4. Joe Medwick (4, 5, 4, 3, 5) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
5. George Van Haltren (6, 6, 5, 4, 6) There are those saying we need more 1890's players, but the vote is split. Mine rests with the remaining outfielders.
6. Eppa Rixey (7, 7, 6, 5, 7) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
7. Ralph Kiner (---, 5, 8) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
8. Wes Ferrell (8, 8, 7, 7, 9) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
9. Joe Sewell (9, 9, 8, 8, 10) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
10. Jake Beckley (11, 11, 10, 10, 11) Not much peak, long career.
11. Biz Mackey (12, 12, 11, 11, 12) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
12. Jose Mendez (13, 13, 12, 13, 13) A peak-value pitching candidate.
13. Dick Redding (14, 14, 13, 13, 14) A career-value pitching candidate.
14. Bob Elliott (-, 15, 14, 14, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Monte Irvin (----, 16) Bill James refused to rate him, "... since his career is half or two-thirds in one world, half or one-third in the other." We're not allowed to duck. I'm still not sure where to put him; I have a feeling it doesn't much matter.
16. Quincy Trouppe</b> (--, 15, 15, 17) Haven't decided to put him ahead of Mackey - yet.
17. Willard Brown (15, 16, 16, 16, 18) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
18. Hugh Duffy (16, 17, 17, 17, 19)
19. Bucky Walters (18, 19, 18, 18, 20) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
20. Phil Rizzuto (----. 21) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (19, 19, 19, 19, 22) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Joe Gordon (20, 20, 20, 19, 23) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
23. Tommy Bridges (21, 21, 21, 21, 24) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
24. Cool Papa Bell (22, 22, 22, 22, 25) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
25. Edd Roush (23, 23, 23, 23, 26) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
26. George Sisler (24, 24, 24, 24, 27) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
27. Vern Stephens (---, 25, 28)
28. Bobby Doerr (25, 25, 25, 26, 29)
29. Dobie Moore (26, 26, 26, 27, 30) Short career, high peak.
30. Bob Johnson (27, 27, 27, 28, _)

Walker Cooper: obviously a valuable player for a franchise to have, but for all the years he played, he didn't spend that much time in the lineup.

George Kell: Pie Traynor-lite, and Traynor isn't on my ballot.
   7. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 24, 2005 at 04:01 PM (#1701392)
1963 Ballot

1. Roy Campanella: Was he Ron Howard to Jackie's Jim Jarmush?

2. Jose Mendez: Here come the peak/prime pitchers. Was Mendez the second best black pitcher of the teens?

3. Leroy Matlock: More like Walters and Ferrell, a good peak/prime pitcher who faded out too early.

4. Bucky Walters: Peak/prime pitchers tempt me much more than long-career guys because I agree with another voter who said peak is even more important to pitchers than hitters.

5. Quincy Trouppe: A figure along the lines of Gary Carter or Joe Torre.

6. Charley Jones: An excellent left fielder, even with AA discounts.

7. Wes Ferrell: That's a tough ride when your arm pretty much falls off after age 30.

8. Monte Irvin: I like him better than the likes of Medwick. Looks like a reasonably long career with a decent, though not historic, peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan: I have not made a truly thorough accounting of his C versus CF days, but nor have I done so with Deacon White, Joe Torre, and others. He gets catcher bonus from me only when he plays catcher, so that alleviates some worry, but I'm still comparing him to other Cs. Nonetheless, having done the same at other positions for multi-positional players, I'm not going to fret.

10. Hugh Duffy: El Peako y el primo!

11. Cupid Childs: Back in the saddle after spending a decade or more off my ballot. A more impressive performer relative to his position than the remaining eligibles.

12. Joe Medwick: Quack!

13. Dobie Moore: He's like Hughie, only less so; actually, he and Childs would make an appropriate DP pairing.

14. Willard Brown: Power, speed, average, everthing but the girl. Er, the walks.

And the much-coveted 15th spot on my ballot goes to....

15. Biz Mackey: Long, successful career, a little more stick would help him.


16. Wilbur Cooper: Long underrated.
17. Red Ruffing: Just plain longggggg.
18. Eppa Rixey: Same story as Ruffing.
19. George Sisler: What are some words that rhyme with Sisler? I'm all for slant rhyme, and all I can come up with is Twizzler, Sister, and Whistler.
20. Pete Browning: Chris Berman would have called him Pete Browning Serve.

xxx---Clark Griffith: As always, I disagree considerably with the electorate here. But since they haven't decided to vote Ross Youngs, George Kelly, or Fred Lindstrom in, I suppose it's safe to say that I might be wrong here.

Artie Wilson: If you turned a Moneyball player insideout you'd get Wilson. Luis Castillo without the walks is a guy who bats eighth for my NL team.

Piper Davis: Born utility guy; Jose Vizcaino, perhaps. No thanks.

George Kell: Hey, it's Ray Dandridge again!

Walker Cooper: I gave him a little war credit for 1945, but discounts on the two years prior. He was a very good player, and comes fairly close to the borderline.
   8. andrew siegel Posted: October 24, 2005 at 05:01 PM (#1701501)
I'm just slotting in Campy and moving them up, except that I have a big jumper taking the number 15 slot:

(1) Roy Campanella (new)--I once thought he was the best catcher not named Josh, but now believe he had a few too many injuries and a little too much inconsistency to make the top 5. He's still easily a top 10 catcher and almost certainly a top 100 player.

(2) Monte Irvin (3rd)-- Harry Heilmann with a better glove. Makes the HoM with seventy-five slots to spare.

(3) Dobie Moore (4th)--The best evidence is that he hit like George Sisler and played at least solid SS.

(4) George Van Haltren (5th)--A career that fits very well with those of Keeler, Sheckard, Kelley, and Stovey. Did everything well for a long time.

(5) Wes Farrell (6th)--Reached the same level as Feller and Hubbell and sustained it just long enough. Very similar in career value to Keefe, Coveleski, Vance, McGinnity, Caruthers, etc.

(6) Cupid Childs (7th)--The gap between 6 and 21 is very small. Childs holds this spot b/c/ his career length was more impressive in context than most of the later middle infield candidates.

(7) Eppa Rixey (8th)--For pitchers who debuted between his generation and 1960, Rixey's career value is in the top handful. Ranks among the best pitchers in his league enough time to alleviate peak concerns.

(8) Alejandro Oms (9th)--Subjective reports have him as an HoM calibre player and latest, most sophisticated stats back that up. Might have been as good as Sam Crawford; worst case scenario is in the Van Haltren/Duffy/Ryan range.

(9) Hugh Duffy (10th)--If you believe WS, he's probably one of the top 100 players of All-Time. If you believe WARP, he's a reserve on the Hall of Very Good All-Stars. I think the truth lies in between, but closer to the WS assessment.

(10) Red Ruffing (11th)--Exact same set of credentials as Rixey, but docked a tiny bit due to the possibility that the meta-stats don't sufficiently factor out the quality of his teammates.

(11) George Sisler (12th)--Once you correct for the shortened wartime seasons and WS's allergy to 1B defense, his seven-year peak is good enough to earn enshrinement.

(12) Joe Medwick (13th)--Very similar to Sisler; loses the position scarcity tiebreaker.

(13) Edd Roush (14th)--In-season durability and league quality are genuine knocks, but the electorate has tended to use them as excuses for forgeting about him rather than as factors to take into account.

(14) Jimmy Ryan (15th)--Similar peak and career value to Sisler, but a notch worse in his prime due to the fact that his injury/illness came earlier in his career.

(15) Quincy Trouppe (nr/about 28th)-- His translated numbers would have him even higher. I have lots of prejudices against him-- he's a guy I never heard of before this project, he played in a weird collection of leagues, he was a Negro League star in an era where I think the competition wasn't at its peak--but, taking small discounts for the iota of truth in each prejudice, he's still HoM-worthy.

Mr. Beckley continues to sit in 16th place, with Joe Sewell, Bob Johnson, Ralph Kiner, and the Gordon-Doerr pairing trailing in some order.

Clark Griffith is around 30 b/c/ he didn't pitch enough.

Biz Mackey is somewhere in the same vicinity--he looks an awful lot like Bob Boone or Jim Sundberg and won't make my ballot again until we come to terms with whether our translations are underrating Negro Leaguers during his prime years.

The other newbies are non-starters, although George Kell is a lot better than I would have guessed.
   9. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 24, 2005 at 05:14 PM (#1701524)
Seems like old times getting my ballot posted on the first day. :-) Since I'm moving next week, I've been trying to get myself up-to-date just in case I don't have Internet access next week. It appears now that it will only be a couple of days at the most that I will be in that predicament and will occur after the end of this election.

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Roy Campanella-C (n/e): Occupies the top spot on my ballot comfortably, due to his great peak and fairly long career of quality play for a catcher. Best major league catcher for 1949, 1951, 1953, and 1955. Best NL catcher for 1948, 1950, and 1952.

2) Monte Irvin-CF/LF/SS/3B (3e): I'm convinced that he was a great player and should go into the HoM fairly quickly. Thanks to Eric and Chris for their great work!

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (4): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Alejandro Oms-CF (5): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (6): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (7): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (8): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (9): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Tommy Bridges-P (10): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

10) Jake Beckley-1B (11): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

11) Wally Schang-C (12): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Mickey Welch-P (14): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

14) Pete Browning-CF/LF (15): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

15) Frank Chance-1B/C (n/e):Back on the ballot after being left off a few weeks. Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

Medwick, Ruffing, Ferrell, Griffith, Rixey, Mackey, and Sisler all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   10. Mark Donelson Posted: October 24, 2005 at 06:13 PM (#1701627)
1963 ballot.

Not too many changes this week (finally!), other than the new folks. Campanella and Dazzy Vance join my pHOM this year, bringing me into a little more compliance with the consensus, at least momentarily.

1. Roy Campanella (pHOM 1963). If he’d been an outfielder with the same numbers, you’d really have to go into the extenuating circumstances (the value of his NeL stats, his war credit, how much the short peak with the Dodgers really is worth, did he really deserve all those MVPs?). But he was a catcher, and an excellent one. That makes him a no-brainer; for me he slots in neatly among guys like Cochrane.

2. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I appear to be his best friend. I know about the unearned runs, but the impressive peak, the PRAA, and the strikeouts just dazzle me. He’s just barely ahead of Ferrell.

3. Wes Ferrell (pHOM 1945). Another great pitching peak.

4. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. And what a peak!

5. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Would have loved to see him pitch.

6. Joe Medwick (pHOM 1958). Don’t have him as high as I used to, but the peak is persuasive.

7. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Still my favorite of the remaining CFs.

8. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another infielder with a great peak.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Underrated. Peak is strong, and lots of strikeouts.

[9a. Dazzy Vance (pHOM 1963). Obviously, I wasn’t as high on him as many others were, but his numbers look good enough to me that he finally makes my pHOM.]

10. Ralph Kiner. He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

11. Willard Brown. Great hitter, even if he didn’t walk.

12. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste.

[12a. Earl Averill. Forgot to include him last month, but he was here. Not my favorite CF, but I think that, as Vance just did, he’ll get into my pHOM eventually. I’m sure he’ll be thrilled.]

13. Quincy Trouppe. All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining non-Campy catchers.

14. Bucky Walters. Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.

15. Al Rosen. I know, I’m the only one who likes him, but a 3B with a peak like this—even with nothing else to speak of—is going to do well in my system, which has some strong positional adjustments.
   11. Mark Donelson Posted: October 24, 2005 at 06:14 PM (#1701631)
16-20: Irvin, Keller, Sisler, Gordon, Berger

21-25: Mackey, Doyle, Bresnahan, McCormick, C. Jones

26-30: Doerr, Dean, H. Wilson, Oms, Browning

31-35: Redding, Cicotte, Poles, Leach, Roush

36-40: Cravath, Chance, Mays, Ryan, Burns

41-45: Dunlap, Pesky, Welch, Van Haltren, Griffith

46-50: Veach, Rizzuto, B. Johnson, Grimes, Joss

EXPLANATIONS (required and otherwise):

•Irvin: The updated MLEs make it clear he was a very, very good player, but I still don’t see the numbers getting him as high as most have him, at least peak-wise. Just misses my ballot at #16, though by the looks of things it won’t matter after this year anyway.

•Ruffing. Obviously not a peak voter’s cup of tea. Not in my top 50.

•Rixey. Well above Ruffing, but still no peak to speak of. Just outside my top 50.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, so he’s at #21.

•Griffith. I like him better than Rixey and Ruffing, but again, there’s only limited appeal here for a peak voter. He’s at #45.

•Sisler. Until last year, he was my ballot, ahead of Medwick. My analysis of Irvin somehow made me look at him again, and I decided I was overvaluing him, giving too much extra value for the fact that WS appears to underestimate his defense. He’s now just off the edge of my ballot, at #18.

•Kell. A solid player, but he’s not even close to my top 50—not nearly enough of a peak, even playing a position I tend to give an extra boost. He’s basically Pie Traynor with a shorter peak.

•Cooper. I think WS underrates him a bit, and he’s better than I expected. But that just gets him near (and frankly not even that near) Wally Schang—who’s the type of catcher I don’t vote for.

•Artie Wilson: Another surprise to me, much better numbers than I was expecting. But it’s still not enough; for me, he slots in behind Bus Clarkson, and right around Pie Traynor again.

•Piper Davis: He, on the other hand, wasn’t better than I was expecting; he’s near the bottom of my entire consideration list.

No other new candidates even merited serious consideration.
   12. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 24, 2005 at 06:53 PM (#1701713)
This is Daryn's ballot:

One ML hitter in my top 9. 7 pitchers on the ballot. 4 NeLers on the ballot.

1. Roy Campanella – historic peak and obscene defence overcomes ML career length and numbers problems. I struggle with this placement – before taking into account defense and NeL credit, I had him 8th. I am giving him credit for 3.5 strong years prior to 1948. I hope that is not an overcorrection. In the end, it won’t matter where I place him, but still.

2. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

3. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

4. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment. Nice to see him reaching the top 10.

5. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Griffith (who is at 17 this week), a five person group of whiteball pitchers that includes Waddell and Ferrell.

7. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

8. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Schang.

10. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

11. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles.

12. Wes Ferrell – Wes has been hanging around in my 20s for a decade or so. I finally realized the significance of his 100 OPS+.

13. Monte Irvin – Cobb’s MLE’s help, as does the comparison to Griffey. That said, Griffey would be #1 on this ballot. Like Suttles and Beckwith before him, I have some real trouble placing him correctly on the ballot, or off it for that matter.

14. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

15. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut. Makes the ballot at the expense of Bresnahan, who drops to Schang territory (27-28) as a result of my reevaluation of catchers – which was caused by my difficulty in assessing Campy’s career.
   13. Adam Schafer Posted: October 24, 2005 at 06:54 PM (#1701720)
Getting my ballot in early this week for a change.

1. Roy Campanella - Not as great as I had initially thought, but still an easy choice for #1 on this ballot.

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

3. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

4. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push
him up this high on my ballot.

5. Monte Irvin - I was a little skeptical of him last year. After doing much more reading on him, I realized I made a very bad mistake leaving him off of last years ballot. Monte bursts onto my ballot at #5 this year.

6. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

7. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

8. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

9. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

10. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

11. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

12. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

13. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

14. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

15. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

16. George Van Haltren - Just misses my ballot.

Schang, Rixey, Bresnahan and Gordon are all just off of my ballot right now.
   14. sunnyday2 Posted: October 25, 2005 at 12:44 AM (#1702225)

1. Roy Campanella (new, PHoM 1963)--#7 catcher all-time on my list

2. Dobie Moore (3 last week-1-2, PHoM 1957)
3. Joe Medwick (4-2-3, PHoM 1954)
4. George Sisler (5-3-4, PHoM 1938)--top position players been around awhile

5. Tommy Bond (6-4-5, PHoM 1929)
6. Pete Browning (7-5-12, PHoM 1961)--you've been around a while?!

7. Monte Irvin (8-new, PHoM 1963)
8. Ralph Kiner (9-6-new)--Bill James has Kiner #18 among LF and Irvin has an XX and is discussed between #18 Kiner and #19 Frank Howard. These guys are close. By WS Irvin doesn't have a better year until year #7 and by OPS+ not until year #5, though his big (possible 211 OPS+?) is ambiguous. Bottom line is their peak and prime are close enough that Irvin's extra 5 productive to semi-productive seasons is a tie-breaker. Kiner will be PHoM soon, though apparently not HoM. Irvin this year looks like he will be both.

9. Rube Waddell (10-7-7, PHoM 1932)
10. Jose Mendez (11-8-8, PHoM 1957)
11. Addie Joss (12-9-9)--good ol' pitcher contenders

12. Ed Williamson (13-10-10, PHoM 1924)--comps Jimmy Collins and Stan Hack

13. Willard Brown (14-11-11)--biding his time, darlin' PHoM soon (get it? think John Sebastien)

14. Dick Redding (15-14-15)--biding his time, darlin' PHoM soon

15. Charley (Horse) Jones (x-12-13, PHoM 1921)--Edward R. Murrow shoulda done a documentary

Dropped Out: None

Close: 16-20. Gordon, Stephens, Doyle, Doerr, Trouppe
21-25. Duffy, Rixey, Keller, Cravath, Tiernan

Also in PHoM queue: Beckwith and Hack would be in the top 15 if eligible, and Stovey in the top 25.

Required: Ferrell #50, Ruffing #51, Mackey #49, Griffith #34, Van Haltren #77, Bell #37
   15. Jim Sp Posted: October 25, 2005 at 02:11 AM (#1702274)
Cooper #24, Kell #75.

1)Campanella--Clearly qualified.
2)Irvin--I have no doubt that the war plus the integration transition hide a lot of his merit.
3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
7)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
8)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
9)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
10)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here.
11)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
12)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
13)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
14)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.
15)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.

Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #29.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   16. Rob_Wood Posted: October 25, 2005 at 05:30 AM (#1702487)
1963 ballot:

1. Roy Campanella - Great catcher, among the best all-time. I have Campanella behind Gibson, Bench, Piazza, Berra, Fisk, and Cochrane in career value, among a group with Carter, Hartnett, and Dickey.

2. Jake Beckley - very good first baseman with a great many career hits

3. George Van Haltren - star CF of the 1890s

4. Bobby Doerr - star second sacker of the 1940s Red Sox

5. Red Ruffing - star 1930s Yankee hurler

6. Joe Gordon - acrobatic second baseman of the 1940s Yanks (and '48 Tribe)

7. Ralph Kiner - lots of walks and home runs; not much else

8. Bob Johnson - very good hitter

9. Tommy Bridges - I luv his strike outs and ERA+ (with PCL and WWII credit)

10. Willard Brown - underrated negro league slugger with brief stint in majors

11. Bob Elliott - very good third baseman for the 1940s Pirates and Braves

12. Joe Medwick - very good peak without shoulders

13. Eppa Rixey - long and steady career

14. George Sisler - glad he's back on my ballot

15. Cupid Childs - one of top second baseman of the 1890s

Guys I'm not voting for: Monte Irvin (I just don't see it); Wes Ferrell (not enuf career value); Biz Mackey (again, I just don't see it); and Clark Griffith (I've voted for him before and hope to vote for him again).
   17. TomH Posted: October 25, 2005 at 11:49 AM (#1702748)
1963 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Roy Campanella {new}
Overrated by the NBJHA method of big credit for "three best years”, as he mixed great years in with poor ones. Still, in the upper half of the HoM, IMHO
2-Clark Griffith (3) [9]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog.
3-Wes Ferrell (4) [4]
Career ERA of 4.04, but his league/park average ERA was 4.72. Then add in the huge bat.
4-Monte Irvin (5) [3]
Could be #2. Could be much lower. Like all NegL candidates, it’s a hazy view out there.
5-Joe Sewell (6) [22]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP plus very good defense. Y’all gonna dis Alan Trammell?
6-George Van Haltren (7) [11]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
7-Red Ruffing (8) [5]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats, too.
8-Cool Papa Bell (9) [12]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
9-Bucky Walters (10) [28]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in 39-40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
10-John McGraw (11) [39]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
11-Joe Gordon (12) [26]
Nudges out Doerr; I might feel differently if Doerr had helped his team over the top in many close pennant races they lost.
12-Eppa Rixey (13) [7]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
13-Biz Mackey (14) [8]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
14-Willard Brown (15) [18]
His closest comp seems to be Averill, but not quite the glove.
15-Frank Chance (off) [66]
Peerless leader. Managing may have Cost him playing time. A key cog on some dominant teams, and played well in many World Series. Probably more valuable defensively than most systems credit him for.

tentative 16-24: Beckley, Sisler, Childs, Medwick, Rizzuto, Monroe, Kiner, Doerr, Bresnahan

Ducky and Sisler are consensus top10-ers, but I suppose that’s due to my valuing ‘peak’ less than most other voters. Also that I put little stock in Sisler’s great rep, in that I believe it was biased by the old-timers’ love for batting average.

Others in my top 40:
Pie Traynor …Fine player, fine rep; could he have played shortstop?
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Dobie Moore …peak/prime shortstop
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NegL Ofer
Vern Stephens … good but not great
   18. Rusty Priske Posted: October 25, 2005 at 02:12 PM (#1702877)
PHoM: Roy Campanella & Satchel Paige

1. Roy Campanella (new)

With full credit for his NeL time, this becoems an easy #1.

2. George Van Haltren (4,3,4)

Still drinking the GVH kool-aid.

3. Red Ruffing (3,1,1)
4. Eppa Rixey (6,6,3)
5. Joe Medwick (7,2,8)

These guys need a weak year to have a serious shot.

6. Willard Brown (5,4,6)

The new GVH as far as being under-rated.

7. Mickey Welch (11,9,5)
8. Jake Beckley (8,5,2)

Still crazy after all these years.

9. Cool Papa Bell (10,7,7)

10. Biz Mackey (9,8,9)

11. Monte Irvin (x,x,x)

Yes, I underrated him. No, he is not clearly the next best candidate.

12. Dobie Moore (14,12,12)
13. Tommy Leach (12,11,11)

Two more favourite lost causes.

14. Hugh Duffy (15,13,x)

15. George Sisler (13,10,10)

16-20. Roush, Rice, Ryan, Childs, Powell
21-25. Griffith, Trouppe, White, H. Smith, Streeter
26-30. Strong, Doyle, Gleason, Doerr, McCormick
   19. Howie Menckel Posted: October 25, 2005 at 03:21 PM (#1702974)
1963 ballot, our (and my) 66th

I am convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. ROY CAMPANELLA - Six outstanding (for a C) seasons, and three of those excellent for anybody. I'm not as concerned about 'consecutive good seasons' as others, it's a minor quibble to me. Would have been a very tough call with NO other credit, very Jennings-ian career in that case. But credit for the war and the Negro Leagues gives him just the career value he needs to be a no-brainer No. 1 among this mix.
2. MONTE IRVIN - Moves up five places in the only major shuffle. I'm now satisfied that he deserves more credit for the Newark years than I first gave him. What a unique career, straddling so many different baseball worlds. Surely a great hitter in his early 20s, and I believe he was better, longer, than the rest of the slugger crowd around here. Only two MLB seasons that blow you away, but they're useful in confirming the likelihood that he was great early. I'm almost sure he's more Ken Griffey than Will Clark, though neither is an insult.

3. EPPA RIXEY - I'm among his best friends. Matches Ruffing in top 3-4 years except for hitting credit; then slowly but surely maintains an advantage throughout straight-up ERA+ comparisons. A little WW I credit as well.
4. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "good" is unusual. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelecteds from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted.
5. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
6. CLARK GRIFFITH - Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
7. RED RUFFING - Have warmed up a bit. A little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
8. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s here. A full-length career for this brutal era is darn impressive.
9. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Almost would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
10. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than Medwick; I like mashers like this, and a little war credit.
11. WES FERRELL - Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done. Not Newhouser-esque, though.
12. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of career shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that.
13. COOL PAPA BELL - Allowing for park and steals leading him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd be in the HOM a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
14. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by a recent review. Very nice 5, 8, 10-year numbers.
15. BOB ELLIOTT - Looks awfully close to Hack; I guess others don't agree. Seven seasons with 123 or better OPS+ as a 3B (ok, two get a war discount). 124 OPS+ in 8190 PA, mostly as a 3B.

MICKEY WELCH - Will return to the ballot someday. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
JOSE MENDEZ - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings.
GAVY CRAVATH - Still deserves more of a look, but at best he noses out Browning, and probably not that. On the radar, though, finally.

BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread. Sisler - one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career. McGuire - long career as a C, but played not always that often or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others.
   20. Sean Gilman Posted: October 26, 2005 at 06:15 AM (#1705156)

1. Roy Campanella (-)--He’s good.

2. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. Just how big is your AA discount? (1927)

3. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (5)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Monte Irvin (19)--I realize I wasn’t giving him enough peak credit, so he makes a big leap up my ballot.

6. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

7. Clark Griffith (7)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

8. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. George Sisler (9)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

10. Cool Papa Bell (10)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

11. Eppa Rixey (11)--Griffith’s got a big edge in peak, and his career value doesn’t make up the difference. It does give him the edge over the short/career/high peak pitchers though.(1960)

12. Hugh Duffy (12)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.

13. Carl Mays (13)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell.

14. George Van Haltren (14)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually.

15. Wes Ferrell (15)--Great peak, just wish it lasted longer.

16. Biz Mackey (16)
17. Willard Brown (17)
18. Joe Sewell (18)
19. Edd Roush (20)
20. Alejandro Oms (21)
21. Quincy Trouppe (22)
22. Red Ruffing (23)
23. Vern Stephens (24)
24. Roger Bresnahan (25)
25. Joe Medwick (26)
26. Bob Elliott (27)
27. Ed Williamson (28)
28. Jose Mendez (29)
29. Bobby Doerr (30)
30. Dave Bancroft (31)
   21. TomH Posted: October 26, 2005 at 12:00 PM (#1705534)
"Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. Just how big is your AA discount? "
Browning earned many Win Shares in his age 21-22 seasons, compared to Kiner's 0 Win Shares at that age during WWII.
Browning finished 8 places higher than Kiner in recent our 1962 election; that seems awfully fair by 'Pennants Added, adjusted for war credit and AA discount'.
   22. Sean Gilman Posted: October 26, 2005 at 12:26 PM (#1705555)
How much WW2 credit do you think Kiner should get? He had a 117 OPS+ at age 23 in 1946. Browning had a 173 OPS+ at that age.
   23. TomH Posted: October 26, 2005 at 01:41 PM (#1705615)
Not a bunch, Sean - he probably would have been an average major leaguer, or slightly below.
But Browning's 173 OPS+ IS misleading, given that the AA of the early 1880s was quite poor. The BP method suggests that (comparing Browning to Brouthers in 1884, for example) Browning's year would have been worth about 2.5 wins or 7-8 fewer Win Shares in the National League.
In the end, I agree that Kiner is a reasonable comparison for Browning, and maybe Pete has a better case.
   24. SWW Posted: October 26, 2005 at 03:17 PM (#1705754)
I’m back, and ready to cast ballots all by myself once again. (And I see you guys have gone and switched from square brackets to angle brackets. I can't leave you guys alone for a second.) Many thanks again to John Murphy for seeing that my electoral duties were carried out in my absence. And also to David Foss, for the kind wishes. You can just call her Mrs. W.

I will admit that I’ve been quite distracted lately. If you told me when I moved to Chicago 10 years ago that a World Series would also enter the city limits during my time here, I’d have shook my head and told you not to be so cruel. And yet here we are. So I’d better get this ballot in before that cold front moves in from hell.

<u>1963 Ballot</u>
1)Roy Campanella – “Campy”
An extraordinary catcher. If you ignore his Negro League years, he comes across as a stellar peak candidate. Plus I understand the inherent biases and shortcomings of the MVP Award, but a catcher who wins three of them has a lot going for him. 35th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 36th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 47th on SABR Top 100. 50th on Sporting News Top 100. 53rd on Bill James Top 100. 55th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
2)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I have looked over the stats again and again, determined to bring my thinking in line with the electorate. And try as I might, I just gotta have him all the way up here. So I’ve decided to stop fretting about it and just accept the fact that you’re all wrong in the head. A c.v. that includes a durable, Win Share-rich career, six “All-Star” appearances, terrific black and gray ink, four World Series appearances, and clever use (and non-use) of the spitball. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
4)Montford Merrill Irvin – “Monte”
Moving up a few slots. Instinctively, this looks like a Hall-worthy career to me. Probably room to go higher, although I suspect that he won’t be needing it. 19th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
5)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Still here. Dang. Medwick continues a run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
7)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
8) Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
9)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Still sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
10)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
11)Edd J Roush
He figures to be pretty lonely without Averill to shadow. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
12)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
13) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.
14)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Still hanging on until a flood of new guys comes in. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
15)Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
Just keeps yo-yoing on and off my ballot. I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He also does well in James Vail’s standard deviation scores. The Negro League pitchers are very hard to get a handle on, and I will certainly revisit this matter again.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
Ferrell continues to fall upwards in my estimation, but still not high enough. Ferrell’s thing is that his career isn’t long enough and his peak isn’t high enough. He falls short on both counts. So he remains off my ballot.
Clark Calvin Griffith
Inching closer and closer. If we ever elect some of the backlog, he might just have a shot.
   25. favre Posted: October 26, 2005 at 05:05 PM (#1705941)
1.Roy Campanella
2.Monte Irvin
3.Alejandro Oms

Campanella was a very similar player to the Cochrane/Hartnett/Dickey trio. I have no idea how I would rank those four players, but Campy is an easy #1 pick. for this ballot.

The #2 pick is much more difficult. Dr C’s/Chris’ MLE’s suggest that Irvin was a similar hitter to Edgar Martinez (right-handed, high-OBP, medium power), but his career shape resembles that of Will Clark, who also posted a career high 175 OPS+ at age 25, and who also struggled with injuries and decline after age 31. Oms was not quite the hitter that Irvin was, but he was more durable and a better fielder; very similar, as others have point out, to Earl Averill. I’ll give Irvin the edge because of his peak, but part of me still thinks Oms was a little better.

4.Eppa Rixey
5.Jake Beckley
6.Wally Schang

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher.

7.Rube Waddell
8.Jose Mendez
9.Dobie Moore

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

It’s become pretty clear to me that Moore is the best shortstop on the board. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on a couple of decades ago.

10.Cool Papa Bell
11. Tommy Leach

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Looking back over the years, I’m surprised by how many times I’ve been able to write that. Good hitting, great defense at *two* key positions.

Bell’s projections put him at near 400 WS and 3700 hits. I think we missed the boat on him. I know Max Carey was elected on a strange ballot, but why Carey, and not Bell?

12. Joe Gordon
13. Wes Ferrell
14. Ned Williamson
15.Bobby Doerr

Gordon and Doerr were very similar players: great D at 2nd, could hit a little. I had kept Ferrell off the ballot for years, but I finally realized its hard to include Waddell, Mendez, and Newhouser on a ballot finding a place for Wes somewhere.

Williamson is still the best third baseman available seventy years after he retired: his main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value.

16. Biz Mackey
17. Roger Bresnahan

Mackey has been at the bottom of my ballot for a few years, was bumped off last year by a very good incoming class. Bresnahan is back on my radar screen after a long absence, based on the discussions on the Campanella thread. He actually had a slightly better prime than Schang, but Wally had a better career as a catcher.

18.George Sisler
19.Ralph Kiner
20.Gavvy Cravath

These three guys have the same resume: huge peak seasons with short careers that just keep them just off the ballot for now. Kiner’s seasons of 184, 184, and 173 OPS+ really impress me, but not enough to vote for him yet.

21.Joe Medwick
22.Clark Griffith

Medwick is another OF with a relatively short career, but doesn’t have the peak of the guys in front of him. Griffith was a mainstay on my ballot for years, but in my re-evaluation I decided he doesn’t have the peak or the career of the pitchers in front of him.

23-25: Edd Roush, Cupid Childs, Bob Elliott
26-30: Larry Doyle, Dick Redding, Pete Browning, Mike Tiernan, Bob Johnson
31-33: Vic Willis, George Van Haltren, Burleigh Grimes
34. Red Ruffing

I think Rixey significnantly better than Ruffing: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?
   26. Dolf Lucky Posted: October 26, 2005 at 09:14 PM (#1706363)
1(-)Roy Campanella--All time elite catcher.

2 (3)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

3 (4)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

4 (6)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the best pure pitcher available.

5 (5)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

6 (7)Monte Irvin--Makes my PHOM this year, and while I still don't know if #6 is the right ballot spot for him, I tend to feel that he belongs in the hall.

7 (10)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

8 (11)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

9 (12)Vern Stephens--Similar issues to Pesky.

10 (9)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

11 (8)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

12 (14)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

13 (13)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

14 (15)Ralph Kiner--still unwilling to kick him off the ballot.

15 (-)Dom DiMaggio--Build in some "appropriate" war credit, and he has the same career value as Boudreau. Limited peak, as he was amazingly consistent.

Top 10 omissions:

Mackey doesn't stack up against the elite catchers that came after him. Rixey lacks the requisite peak. Griffith is buried in a glut. Sisler is top 20.
   27. Sean Gilman Posted: October 26, 2005 at 09:33 PM (#1706382)
Not a bunch, Sean - he probably would have been an average major leaguer, or slightly below.
But Browning's 173 OPS+ IS misleading, given that the AA of the early 1880s was quite poor. The BP method suggests that (comparing Browning to Brouthers in 1884, for example) Browning's year would have been worth about 2.5 wins or 7-8 fewer Win Shares in the National League.
In the end, I agree that Kiner is a reasonable comparison for Browning, and maybe Pete has a better case.

If you give Kiner 10 Win Shares for WW2 (one season at league average), then Browning still has a 60 win share lead on him.

Anyway, looking at the WARP1 to WARP2 conversions for Brouthers and Harry Stovey (who had a more comparable season to Brouthers that year) it looks like Davenport chops an additional 15% off the AA player. I'm curious how this compares to the MLE adjustments made for Negro League and other minor league players. It seems bigger than most of them to me. . . especially considering the AA was considered a major league at the time.

Regardless, the relative quality of the AA says little about the relative quality of Pete Browning. He played on some truly terrible teams and stood head and shoulders above them, much as you'd expect from a HOMer playing in a lesser league:

In 1882, as a 21 year old second baseman, he hit .378/.430/.510. The next best player on his team, Jimmy Wolf, hit .299/.318/.384. No one else had an OBP over .300.

In 1883, he hit .338/.378/.464. The next best was either Jack Gleason at .299/.345/.369 or Ed Whiting with .292/.317/.417. No one else had an OBP over .300 or a SLG over .360.

In 1884, playing third, he hit .336/.357/.472. Next best was either Wolf with .300/.310/.414 or Monk Cline at .290/.342/.381. No one else had an OBP over .281 or a SLG over .320.

In 1885, back in the outfield, he hit .362/.393/.530. Wolf hit .292/.309/.416. No one else had an OBP over .281 or a SLG over .353.

And so on. Browning was far and away the best player on his team every year until 1888 and 89, when he missed 80 games over two years (presumably due to injury and/or alcohol). Then, in 1890 at age 29, he dominated the Player's League, the top major league of that year, leading in OPS+ 169 to Roger Connor's 156.

At only 12 seasons, Browning is a peak candidate. Translations, conversions, AA adjustments, and so on uniquely penalize this type of player because the high peak player is by definition better than the quality of his league. If you adjust Browning at the same rate you adjust Leech Maskrey, you're going to underrate Browning.
   28. sunnyday2 Posted: October 26, 2005 at 10:21 PM (#1706430)
I like Browning and Kiner but rank Pete ahead of (what's it all about) Ralphie. This is after applying AA discounts that range from 35% in 1882 to 0% in 1886 and back up to 10% in 1890-91. For a player who was in the AA for 10 years the average discount would be 10%, but almost nobody was in the AA for 10 years so even for the "career AA" type player the discount usually ends up at about 8%. For players who played half a career in the AA and half in the NL it might end up around 4%.

The big question therefore is really not the AA discount--well, it's important, but...

The big question remains whether 1) you normalize straight line to 154 or whether you use a factor like WARP does on the assumption that a player who has an extremely big year like Browning's 1882 could not possibly have maintained a 200 OPS+ over 154 games. And 2) your timeline. If I timeline like Bill James, well, Pete coulda hit .500 and I could pooh-pooh it.

I don't timeline, so even with an AA discount and a season-length adjustment at less than a straight line to 154 Pete still comes out very well both by WS and OPS+. He finally made my PHoM in 1961 when it came down to him...or Kiner. Kiner may go in in 1963 unless Reese and Lemon blow me away, but he will go in soon. But Browning's hitting, taken in context of his leagues and his times was even more impressive.
   29. Sean Gilman Posted: October 26, 2005 at 11:27 PM (#1706487)
I'm sure it won't surprise you to hear that I think you should normalize straight to 154 games.

Normalizing season length is not a question of whether a player "could" have done something in a given number of games, but rather a matter of expressing what a player did do in the same terms as everyone else.

If player A created 1 run per game while playing every game of a 100 game season, he created 100 runs.

If player B created 1 run per game while playing every game of a 162 game season, he created 162 runs.

These performances are equivalent in terms of their value to their teams. Player A did just as much to help his team win the pennant as player B.

Since what we are calling merit is (in my opinion) a player's contribution to his team's attempts to win pennants, anything but a straight normalization of season length unfairly penalizes short-season players.
   30. sunnyday2 Posted: October 26, 2005 at 11:31 PM (#1706492)
Sean, then I don't understand why Tommy Bond isn't on your ballot!? ;-)
   31. EricC Posted: October 27, 2005 at 12:09 AM (#1706533)
1963 ballot. I may have been one of the least-consensus voters in 1962, but I guarantee I'll match the consensus in regards to the newbies: Campenella is #1 this year and neither Kell nor Cooper are HoMers.

1. Roy Campanella Number 1 based on ML accomplishments alone. I have not yet estimated the rest of his career to see how he ranks among all-time catchers,

2. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Low in-season catcher usage during this era taken into account.

3. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is arguably a HoM-worthy career, while the number of seasons among the top N players in league is evidence of a HoM-worthy peak. Like with Schang, the answer to AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his all-time standing.

4. Joe Gordon With all the discussion about WWII credit, will it actually make any difference between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the
performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons. The downside is that Gordon + war credit may look too much like Sewell for some.

5. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey IMO is the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length for his era more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

6. Bobby Doerr A great 2B; another player who edges up because of war credit.

7. Charlie Keller Won't make the HoM because injuries curtailed his career, but his prime looks like the real deal to me, as a perennial (non-Ted Williams) all star and MVP-level player. Had his best seasons in the worst-possible time to be a post-1920 slugger and lost nearly two seasons at his probable peak.

8. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP in the 1930-1943 AL.

9. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

10. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career, averaging out to a borderline HoM candidate. Still, I'm liking him more as time goes on.

11. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; Gomez seems like a reasonable comparison.

12. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons help to boost him above the other high-peak short career pitchers. Seems like the type who would be a relief ace if he were playing today.

13. Monte Irvin has the kind of record that makes me nervous: his ML stats age 31+ do not fit the pattern of a HoM corner OF, and an extrapolation of this record wouldn't even get him in the top 100 of my ballot. But I give some credit to historical reputation of NeL players, which is how he makes my ballot.

14. Phil Rizzuto A defensive star who lost 3 years of his probable peak to the war, likely costing him a 300 WS career. Gets more war credit in my system than any other player so far.

15. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers. Looked at Trouppe again, but still have more confidence in Mackey as a bona fide candidate. As Radcliffe and
Petway are also still in the NeL C glut, looking forward to comprehensive NeL statistical data to do a better job of sorting everybody out.

Ferrell, Rixey, and Griffith all made my ballot in past years. It is starting to look that I am pitcher-lite, but I'm happy with my formula for balancing pitchers and position players.

I have Sisler lowest among the returning top-10. While I sympathize with his case, I have to go by what he accomplished, and his prime wasn't quite dominant and long enough for me.
   32. Sean Gilman Posted: October 27, 2005 at 12:22 AM (#1706548)
Sean, then I don't understand why Tommy Bond isn't on your ballot!? ;-)

Because I think pitching from that era is way overrated, his career is really short (in years if not in innings) and his peak isn't all that great anyway.

While the straight normalization would give someone like Bond an obscene amount of innings, he still wouldn't stand out from his peers any more than he does by, say, ERA+.
   33. OCF Posted: October 27, 2005 at 01:14 AM (#1706633)
21 ballots so far. Notable omission from the usual early voters: no yest yet.

Cravath has no votes so far. This happened last year as well - Cravath has an unusually late-skewing set of supporters.
   34. Rick A. Posted: October 27, 2005 at 02:12 AM (#1706719)
Roy Campanella
Monte Irvin

1963 Ballot
1.Roy Campanella – Clear #1 on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1963.
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5.Monte Irvin – Big move up. Elected PHOM in 1963.
6.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
7.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1958.
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1960
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1961.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Moves up a little. Higher peak than Rixey.
12.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance.
13.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information.
14.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot
15.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings.

Required Disclosures
Sisler and Medwick just miss my ballot
Ruffing and Rixey Pretty far off the ballot. I tend to be a prime/peak voter rather than career.
Griffith Never seems to rank well in my system.

Off the ballot
16-20 Duffy,Walters, Monroe, Oms, Sisler
21-25 Medwick, Dean, Bresnahan, Bell, Roush
26-30 Cooper, Mays, Johnson, Waddell, McGraw
31-35 Rosen, Leach, Ruffing, Cravath, Keller
36-40 Elliott, Schang, Stephens, Gordon, Doyle
41-45 Poles, Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, f. Jones
46-50 Van Haltren, Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe, Wilson
   35. sunnyday2 Posted: October 27, 2005 at 03:08 AM (#1706843)
>he still wouldn't stand out from his peers any more than he does by, say, ERA+.

Sean, is that Bond specifically or all of the starters of that day? (That would be the Lake Woebegone League, then...?)

I agree, BTW, that pitching is different. I give half pitching WS to fielders.

But those obscene numbers of innings, if you normalize to 154 or anything close to that, add up to a lot of WS. And I'm not sure that 3000 IP in 5 years is less valuable than 3000 IP in 15 years. IOW I don't agree that he had a short career, especially not compared to his peers but even compared to history generally.

But he's been around for 65 years and I don't expect anybody to start voting for him now.
   36. DavidFoss Posted: October 27, 2005 at 04:31 AM (#1707157)
Here's a vote for Cravath.

1962 was a pretty decent year. Maury Wills 'stole' 104 bases and the MVP while Mays, Aaron, FRobinson all put up stellar numbers. Tommie Davis drove in 153 runs in Dodger Stadium.

The Giants won a thrilling playoff by coming from behind to win in the last inning of the deciding game. They almost repeated that feat in the WS. Down 1-0 in the bottom of the 9th with runners on second and third Bobby Richardson snagged a line drive prompting Charlie Brown of Peanuts to scream "Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball two feet higher?!?". That McCovey kid could be good if the Giants find a way to get him into the lineup every day.

Another WS title for the Yankees. Mantle wins his 3rd MVP despite missing a month a playing time. With a 196 OPS+ he probably deserved it, too.

On a lighter note, Casey Stengel is back managing the new Mets club which became the first team in history to lose 120 games. Ten teams and 162-game schedules in both leagues. The times, they are a changin'.

1963 Ballot

1. Roy Campanella (ne) -- Would be an interesting debate in another year, but none of my backlog challenges him.
2. Clark Griffith (3) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
3. Larry Doyle (4) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
4. Cupid Childs (5) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
5. Biz Mackey (6) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
6. John McGraw (7) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
7. Monte Irvin (10) -- A bit of a boost this week. Looks like a decent candidate. Should be inducted this year and that's OK with me.
8. Dick Redding (8) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
9. Wes Ferrell (9) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
10. Ralph Kiner (11) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
11. Gavvy Cravath (12) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
12. Joe Gordon (13) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
13. Charley Jones (14) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
14. George Sisler (15) -- Welcome back Jorge! Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
15. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Good discussion about him of late. I coincidentally had him 16th last week. Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.

16-20. JSewell, BJohnson, Ruffing, Medwick, BElliott,
21-25. Doerr, Rixey, Rosen, Chance, Lombardi,
26-30. Beckley, WBrown, Browning, Leach, Welch
31-35. Moore, Waddell, Rizzuto, VStephens, Roush
   37. Sean Gilman Posted: October 27, 2005 at 05:42 AM (#1707284)
Sean, is that Bond specifically or all of the starters of that day? (That would be the Lake Woebegone League, then...?)

Bond specifically. There are pitchers of that era in my PHOM, Spalding, Galvin, Clarkson, Keefe, Radbourne, Caruthers. Bond's top 5 ERA+s of 166, 142, 133, 127 and 114 don't really impress me. Well, it's better than Galvin, but his case doesn't rest on his peak.

I agree, BTW, that pitching is different. I give half pitching WS to fielders.

But those obscene numbers of innings, if you normalize to 154 or anything close to that, add up to a lot of WS. And I'm not sure that 3000 IP in 5 years is less valuable than 3000 IP in 15 years. IOW I don't agree that he had a short career, especially not compared to his peers but even compared to history generally.

But he's been around for 65 years and I don't expect anybody to start voting for him now.

Sure, it's a lot of innings, but those innings aren't as valuable as they look, for reasons of defense and also because everyone else was throwing that many innings. In Bond's best ERA+ season, 1875 when he had a league-leading 166, he was 8th in the league in IP. This in a year when only 7 teams played more than 45 games, while the champion Boston team played 79 and Bond's Hartford team played 82. His teammate Candy Cummings made 8 more starts than he did.

In other words, you can straight normalize Bond's IP to 700 innings, but he'd still be below average in innings. That makes his year a lot closer to Greg Maddux's 2002 (157 ERA+, 197 IP) than Greg Maddux's 1992 (166 ERA+, 268 IP).
   38. Mike Webber Posted: October 27, 2005 at 03:46 PM (#1707911)
I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little.

1)ROY CAMPANELLA – Needs a little bit of NeL credit to be number one on this ballot.
2)EDD ROUSH –314 win shares, I’m Edd’s best friend.
3)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
4) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak.
5)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Huge career value, decided that there is too much here to ignore.
6)COOL PAPA BELL –I am going with the notion that Bell is better than Irvin.
7)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
8)WES FERRELL – Peak gets him on the list, I am going to put him ahead of Mays, because his peak numbers are more unique a decade after Mays.
10)RALPH KINER – his peak doesn’t move him ahead of the other Ofers that have 60 to 80 more career win shares.
11)CARL MAYS – With additional emphasis on total career and less on peak, I slide him behind the Ruffing/Rixey combo.
12)BOBBY DOERR – War credit penalty may not be docking him enough.
13)GEORGE SISLER – Good combo of peak and career value.
14)ROGER BRESNAHAN –Best catcher between Ewing and Hartnett.
15)JOE GORDON Managed both the KC A’s and KC Royals.

16-30 Dean, Berger, Rizzuto, Rosen, Traynor, Warneke, Elliott, Lazzeri, Irvin, H. Wilson, Waddell, Schang, Cooper, Duffy, Mendez.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Griffith – about 40th. Irvin will be in the HOM before he make my ballot.
   39. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 28, 2005 at 03:00 AM (#1708934)
It's mid-term time so this one will be quick.

1963 ballot

1. Roy Campanella (x, PHOM 1963) - Probably oen of the five best catchers ever, esaily in the top 10.

2. Wes Ferrell (3, PHOM 1956) - Maybe not the best pitcher on the board but he is certainly the player ot have played pitcher on the board, nice peak and a 100 OPS+.

3. Cupid Childs (4, PHOM 1939) - Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

4. Monte Irvin (5, PHOM 1963) - Seems to me to have Medwick's three year peak with more career and prime.

5. Joey Medwick (6, PHOM 1963) - I believe the WS account of Ducky, great three year peak with very respectable prime aand career numbers.

6. Hugh Duffy (7) - Best of the 1890's CF trio based on his superior peak.

7. Dick Redding (8) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era.

8. Charlie Keller (9) - Monster peak, especially if given full war credit.

9. Bucky Walters (10) - Similar to Ferrel but without the hitting.

10. Dobie Moore (11) - The black Jennings, though his peak isnt' quite as high.

11. Ralph Kiner (12) - Great HR hitter who could get on base as well. Peak not as impressive as King Kong's though.

12. Clark Griffith (13) - 3.99 career DERA, 4th best pitcher of the 1890's, easily the best 19th century pitcher left on the board.

13. Quincy Trouppe (14) - Best catcher not named Roy on the board. Nice peak and caught a lot of games per season.

14. Joe Gordon (15) - Nice prime, slightly better than Doerr.

15. Pete Browning (16) - Monster hitter in his time, however his time didn't have the best competition.

Mackey and Bell are in the high twenties, unlikely to make a ballot anytime soon, no peak.
Beckley and Welch I have been over before, no peak for Jake and win totals vastly inflate Welch's value
Sisler, GVH, are just off ballot, they will be on soon enough.
Ruffing doesn't impress me, not as good as Rixey (#18).
   40. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 28, 2005 at 02:12 PM (#1709257)
The Double Curse of Eddie Cicotte may be lifted this week,

Please tell me that you're joking here, karlmagnus. It's bad enough that Shaunessy crap was allowed to germinate in regard to the Red Sox. We don't need another manufactured "curse." :-)
   41. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 28, 2005 at 03:44 PM (#1709388)
But John, haven't you heard about the Curse of the Hobbled Hammie? It kept the Astros from winning I tell ya!
   42. karlmagnus Posted: October 28, 2005 at 04:07 PM (#1709422)
The White Sox winning surely PROVES that the curse was that of Eddie Cicotte and not, as that incompetent Shaughnessey wrote, Babe Ruth. Cicotte had a reason to curse both Sox; Ruth definitely didn't.
   43. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 28, 2005 at 05:18 PM (#1709528)
The Red Sox won the World Series the year they traded Cicotte and 3 more in the next 6 years. That's not effective cursing in my system. Below replacement level cursing, in fact.

Are we still allowed to say "cursing"?
   44. DanG Posted: October 28, 2005 at 05:45 PM (#1709569)
My #1 and #2 were elected. Campanella leads the class of 1963, with Kell adding another HOFer to the also-rans. The next year, Reese and Lemon debut. In 1965, Slaughter, Doby and Vernon try to hold off the backlog.

1) Roy Campanella – I concur that he is among the top 100 players all-time.

2) Clark Griffith (3,1,2) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Like Leach et al, he doesn’t have that one big Wow! that gets voters excited. Career only seems short due to missing two years after contraction; peak only seems low because the contracted league is harder to dominate. Good hitter, too. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

3) Monte Irvin (4,ne,ne) – Occasionally, you find a real diamond among the shiny new toys. His MLEs support his reputation. Giving proper war credit makes him an easy HoMer. Given his exemplary character, it was assumed that he would be the one to break the color barrier, not Jackie (or so the story goes).

4) George Van Haltren (5,2,3) – I’ve been among his four best friends for 26 elections. He held his ground last time, but still languishes in the second tier of the backlog, where he’s been since the mid 1940’s. Now in his 55th year eligible. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

5) Eppa Rixey (6,4,5) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

6) Wes Ferrell (7,5,6) – Liking him more and more. Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

7) Red Ruffing (8,6,7) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well.

8) Tommy Leach (9,7,8) – Still approaching Lost Cause status; gained ground again last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10—2182 T. Speaker
11—2156 T. Leach
12—2123 W. Keeler
13—2122 J. Sheckard
14—2087 S. Magee

9) George Sisler (10,8,9) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

10) Biz Mackey (11,9,10) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz. This is around my HoM cutoff line.

11) Edd Roush (12,10,11) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he held his ground last election. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

12) Joe Medwick (13,11,12) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting.

13) Jimmy Ryan (14,12,13) – The Ryan express stayed on course, but he still has not finished higher than 40th since 1951. From zero ballots in 1957, he was named on 5 last election. To those 15 voters who had GVH in their top twelve last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes.

14) Cool Papa Bell (15,13,15) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Could move up.

15) Roger Bresnahan (--,14,--) – Back after a year off. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett
   45. karlmagnus Posted: October 28, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1709570)
Cicotte had no reason to curse the Red Sox until he got arrested in 1920. At that point, he had an entirely justifiable wish to curse both teams simultaneously, imposing a first ballot HOM curse that lasted 86 and 88 years respectively.

Why the CUBS have been so ineffective is however a mystery!
   46. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 28, 2005 at 06:10 PM (#1709591)
Cicotte had no reason to curse the Red Sox until he got arrested in 1920. At that point, he had an entirely justifiable wish to curse both teams simultaneously, imposing a first ballot HOM curse that lasted 86 and 88 years respectively.

But do you really believe that the White Sox (or the Red Sox) were cursed? :-0 BTW, if Cicotte had supernatural powers such as that, he would have just put a hex on Landis so that he would never have been kicked out of baseball in the first place. :-)

Why the CUBS have been so ineffective is however a mystery!

I think the word is "mismanagement."

Are we still allowed to say "cursing"?

Not only can you do that, Don, you're still allowed to swear (as long as you allow the Cybernanny to block it).
   47. Brad G Posted: October 28, 2005 at 06:43 PM (#1709631)
I'm under extreme time pressures right now, but this is the last chance i'll have to submit the ballot... sorry for any lack of commentary!

1963 Ballot:

1.Roy Campanella- One of the greatest Catchers ever to play the game

2.Joe Medwick- Career OPS+ = 134, tons of Ink, the one truly great year was enough to boost his peak/prime numbers above his peers.

3.Hugh Duffy- Career Win Shares = 295, Win Share 5-year Peak = 144 (!), Career WARP3 = 81, Career Runs Created = 1229, Black Ink = 38, Gray Ink = 147. A+ Centerfielder with 5 WS Gold Gloves, according to James, who ranks him #20 center fielder of all time. I’ve had him gracing my Hall since 1908.

4.Bobby Doerr- Career WARP3 = 98.9, Excellent defensive player.

5.George Van Haltren- Career WS = 344, WARP1 = 121, Career Runs Created = 1286.

6.Edd Roush- No matter what system I use, it always trends toward CFs. Roush put up some strong numbers, but probably not enough to get him in.

7.Tommy Leach- A big benefactor in my latest ratings system… particularly helped by his outstanding defenseive rating.

8.Cupid Childs- Questionable whether he was better than Gordon, but I don’t think he was quite at Doerr’s level.

9.Cool Papa Bell- By most subjective accounts, one of the greatest of the Negro Leaguers.

10.Jimmy Ryan- Still hanging around after all these years.

11.Joe Gordon- Excellent fielding 2B. Probably the best 2B of the 1940’s.

12.Joe Sewell- Yet another nice-hitting, very good defensive SS.

13.Monte Irvin- Almost let Irvin slip by me. I confess the jury’s still out on him. Will continue reading the excellent threads developed here.

14.Red Ruffing- Big fan. Career WARP1 = 113.3, WARP3 = 102.7, Black Ink = 11, Gray Ink = 257. Excellent Strat-O-Matic card for 1941. And he only had 6 toes! The entrance of Feller on the ballot has knocked the other pitchers down a bit.

15.Bob Elliott- Hard to pinpoint anything exceptional in Elliott’s career stats, but the numbers are consistently above average. Maybe a little high, but I’m comfortable with this ranking right now.

16.George Sisler- Monster Career stats: Runs Created = 1477, Black Ink = 29, Gray Ink = 198. Not only could he hit (1920 and 1922 being his standout years), but he had speed too, leading the league in SBs four times. Pretty good pitcher as well.
17.Willard Brown
18.Larry Doyle
19.Bucky Walters
20.Bingo DeMoss

Wes Ferrell ranks at #23
Biz Mackey, the second best of the eligible Catchers, holds steady at #22.
Clark Griffith and Eppa Rixey fall to #33 and #34, respectively. There are so many pitchers I still favor over these two, including Dean, Waddell, Willis, Redding, Cicotte, and Grimes.

   48. Gadfly Posted: October 28, 2005 at 06:46 PM (#1709635)
1963 Ballot (Gadfly)

As always, I believe the conversion rates used in the HOM are inaccurate (combining actual conversion differences with inappropriate adjustment factors) and unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performance which, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.

In addition, I give catchers a 30 percent position bonus, pitchers a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921, and credit for career interruptions that are timeline related (i.e. wars but not injuries). I also upgrade for various other small things like the 1892 to 1900 contraction while downgrading early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL, etc.

1. Gavy Cravath

Greastest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

2. Monte Irvin

Career badly interrupted by World War 2 and then curtailed by injuries, but the man was basically the Black Joe DiMaggio, many more walks but slightly less power and defense.

3. Roy Campanella
4. Willard Brown

The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. Brown was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1949 and would have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without wars and stupidity.

5. Luke Easter

Basically Willie McCovey's bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, injuries, and then age discrimination. The baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all got to play their full careers out in the Majors, Easter would have been the one most remembered and it's not even close.

6. Dick Redding

Would have won over 300 games, easy. Directly comparable to Rube Waddell, but better.

7. Cool Papa Bell
8. Alejandro Oms
9. Biz Mackey

All very overqualified.

10. Charlie Jones
11. George Van Haltren
12. Rube Waddell
13. Hugh Duffy
14. Jose Mendez
15. Ben Taylor

The best of the rest, more or less.
   49. sunnyday2 Posted: October 28, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1709685)
Hey, maybe nobody cursed nobody. The 2 Soxes just sucked all these years. (Granted the '86 Red Sox didn't exactly suck, only on defense at 1B in a certain inning of a certain game. Interesting that the failure to make a more or less routine late inning defensive replacement also cost the '76 Phillies the NLCS. Post-season managerial chokingness?)
   50. karlmagnus Posted: October 28, 2005 at 07:50 PM (#1709744)
Interesting historical question, relevant here in 1963, talking of teams that didn't suck. Do we think the 1959 "Go-Go" White Sox changed the game more than any other team that didn't win a World Championship?
   51. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 28, 2005 at 08:00 PM (#1709766)
Here's a little list
1919 Red Sox: Home runs
1947 Dodgers: Integrated
1959 Chisox: Lots of bunting and steals
1972 Dodgers: Went to five-man rotation
1977? Cubs: Closer only used for saves
1988 A's: Closer only used in ninth
1993 Phillies: Walks, walks, walks!
   52. OCF Posted: October 28, 2005 at 08:34 PM (#1709834)
1993 Phillies: Walks, walks, walks!

The 1993 Phillies drew 655 walks in a league that averaged 507 walks per team, for 129% of average.

In the very same year, the 1993 Tigers drew 765 walks in a league that averaged 572, for 134% of average.

Those 1993 Tigers also lead the league in strikeouts, with 121% of the league average, and they came within 3 of leading the league in HR, at 120% of average. This paragon of a Three True Outcomes team featured Tony Phillips as a leadoff hitter (132 BB, 102 SO, 113 R). Mickey Tettleton (.245/.372/.492) was the team's signature hitter, and they also had Cecil Fielder and Rob Deer.
   53. jimd Posted: October 28, 2005 at 09:09 PM (#1709893)
the new Mets club which became the first team in history to lose 120 games

I guess the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134) were the first team in pre-history then ;-)
   54. DavidFoss Posted: October 28, 2005 at 09:11 PM (#1709896)
I guess the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134) were the first team in pre-history then ;-)

Whoops... my bad. As a HOM voter I should have remembered the 19th century teams.
   55. jimd Posted: October 28, 2005 at 09:40 PM (#1709941)
Ballot for 1963

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next month.


2) W. FERRELL -- Great peak and longer than some of the other high peak pitchers. To me, an 8 year prime at Grove's level is HOM-worthy.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

5) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

7) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

8) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

9) R. RUFFING -- 5 time All-Star (top-32 WARP) versus once for Rixey.

10) M. IRVIN -- Early opinion: he may belong.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

12) J. TINKER -- Long career playing great defense; integral part of a great team.

13) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

14) J. MEDWICK -- Just hanging on.

14) C. P. BELL -- Just moving on.

Just missing the cut are:
16-18) Rabbit Maranville, Hugh Duffy, Tommy Leach,
19-22) Dick Redding, Harry Hooper, Jimmy Ryan, Dick Lundy,
23-26) Eppa Rixey, Ray Schalk, Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon,
27-29) Ned Williamson, Herman Long, Wally Schang,
30-33) Rube Waddell, Phil Rizzuto, Jim McCormick, Edd Roush,
34-36) Roger Bresnahan, Vern Stephens, Clark Griffith,
37) Jake Beckley,
   56. jimd Posted: October 28, 2005 at 09:44 PM (#1709947)
Important Note: I have two 14's. Bell should be 15.

Peeved Note: I hate it when WYSIWYG isn't. Those lines didn't wrap in preview.
   57. Brent Posted: October 29, 2005 at 12:59 AM (#1710080)
1963 Ballot:

The last season was a significant one for this voter, the year I first became a serious fan. I attended my first major league games at brand-new Dodger Stadium, listened to Vin Scully and Jerry Doggett announce the games, read Jim Murray’s column in the LA Times, rooted for Maury Wills to break Cobb’s stolen base record, and had my young heart broken in the ninth inning of the 165th game of the season. Maybe next year!

I continue to give more emphasis to pitching and defense than the rest of the electorate. This year Campanella and Irvin enter my PHoM.

1. Roy Campanella – Would have easily been # 1 on this ballot even without Negro League credit, but knowing about those seasons helps place him among the all-time great catchers. MVP for 1951, 53, and 55. (PHoM 1963)

2. Wes Ferrell – Over 8 seasons (1929-36) he averaged 20-12, 4.6 wins above team, 264 IP, 127 DERA+, 104 OPS+. (PHoM 1944)

3. Monte Irvin – Hit for average and power and contributed with the glove. I see Irvin ranking somewhere between Simmons and Heilmann. (PHoM 1963)

The Lon Warneke article in The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers describes an at-bat in a 1955 game when the bases were loaded and Red Schoendienst lined what appeared to be a clean single into right field--that is, until right fielder Irvin gunned down the runner from third (Solly Hemus) for a rare 9-2 force out.

4. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 127 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

5. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 131 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB, MVP for 1934. (PHoM 1958)

6. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

7. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 117 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

8. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

9. Bucky Walters – Over 8 seasons (1936-37, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.1 wins above team, 267 IP, 120 DERA+, 72 OPS+, MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

10. Ducky Medwick – 7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. MVP for 1937. (PHoM 1958)

11. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS. And like Averill, he’s missing the first 3-5 seasons of a typical HoM career.

12. Willard Brown – He did everything very well except for drawing walks.

13. Phil Rizzuto – “The best shortstop ever at turning the double play, almost beyond any dispute, was Phil Rizzuto.”—Bill James, TNBJHBA, p. 638. MVP for 1950.

14. Mickey Welch – Over 6 seasons (1884-85, 87-90) he averaged 29-15, 3.2 wins above team, 415 IP, 119 DERA+.

15. Charlie Keller – Four seasons with 31+ WS. OPS+ above 140 every season from 1939-47.

Near misses:

16. Biz Mackey
17. Roger Bresnahan
18. Red Ruffing – Over 9 seasons (1928, 30, 32-33, 35-39) he averaged 17-11, zero wins above team, 248 IP, 117 DERA+, 93 OPS+.
19. Cool Papa Bell
20. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
21. Buzz Arlett
22. Vic Willis
24. Gavy Cravath
25. Joe Gordon

41. Eppa Rixey – Over 10 seasons (1912, 16-17, 20-25, 28) he averaged 18-15, 0.6 wins above team, 275 IP, 112 DERA+.

59. George Sisler

Other new arrivals:

Walker Cooper and George Kell didn’t make my top 100.

Note: Pitcher statistics shown above are averages for “prime” seasons, defined as WARP1>5.5.
   58. OCF Posted: October 29, 2005 at 01:15 AM (#1710086)
Brent: my moment will be coming in time for the 1968 election. You say Vin Scully and Jerry Doggett; I say Harry Caray and Jack Buck.
   59. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 29, 2005 at 01:33 AM (#1710101)
Wow, you guys are old! ;-) My first season as a real fan is either 1987 (when I watched my first World Series and All-Star games and started collecting baseball cards) or 1993, the first time I watched every World Series game. I was 6 and 12 respectively.
   60. Brent Posted: October 29, 2005 at 01:57 AM (#1710112)
Thanks, jschmeagol - you really made my day! :-)

I guess one good thing about being old is that we have lots of memories. I saw Musial play in his last season, Duke Snider, Durocher coaching. I just ran across my scorecard from a game I saw Koufax pitch - I'll have to go to retrosheet and see if I can find it.
   61. sunnyday2 Posted: October 29, 2005 at 02:33 AM (#1710121)
Hey, I saw Hoyt Wilhelm no-hit the Yankees on a Saturday afternoon game of the week, and I heard Harvey Haddix' famous/infamous gem on the radio. And I saw Maz' walk-off in '60 (on TV). My first ML games in person were the brand new Twins in '61. I saw Jack Kralick's no-hitter in 1962 (?) in the park. And I saw the Twins beat up on Drysdale in Game 1 in 1965. Now that's old.
   62. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 29, 2005 at 05:26 PM (#1710544)
Thanks, jschmeagol - you really made my day! :-)

Hey, I do what I can!
   63. sunnyday2 Posted: October 29, 2005 at 05:34 PM (#1710559)
I also saw Koufax pitch--the 7th game of the '65 Series. Damn.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 29, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1710602)
I also saw Koufax pitch--the 7th game of the '65 Series.

I'm pretty sure that I was having my diaper changed at the time. :-)
   65. Thane of Bagarth Posted: October 29, 2005 at 05:57 PM (#1710609)
I hate to break up the reminiscing, so I'll add a little prelude to my ballot:
My first memories of baseball fanatacism start with being the only kid in my second grade class--stranded in staunch Red Sox Country--to root for the Mets during the '86 Series.

1963 Ballot:

1) Roy Campanella
I’ve got him well behind Santop, very close to Dickey, and ahead of Harnett.

2) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

3) Bucky Walters
89.6 WARP3, 251 WS. An excellent, underrated pitcher. Similar numbers to Ferrell, but with slightly less peak and more career.

4) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Even if he was only the third best 1B of the Negro Leagues, he deserves to join the HoM.

5) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

6) Jose Mendez
Possibly better than Redding.

7) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. I’m ok with the BP discounts, so he comes out high on my ballot.

8) Dutch Leonard
91.9 WARP3, 233 WS. This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks second only to Ruffing.

9) Monte Irvin
I’m comfortable putting him ahead of the next closest outfielders (Medwick, GVH, CPB, W. Brown), but I’m not entirely convinced he shouldn’t be #3 on this ballot.

10) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible hitter other than Robinson. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

11) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I’ve got him somewhere in-between.

12) Bobby Doerr
He’s at the top of the middle infielder heap. In the reverse of the GVH case, Win Shares don’t favor him as much as WARP3.

13) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

14) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Of eligible pitchers, his 5-year PRAR (457) is 2nd only to Dean.

15) Willard Brown—As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

The Rest of the Top 50

16) Eppa Rixey—Loads of career value keep him near the ballot…he’s on one year, off the next.
17) Bobo Newsom—Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.
18) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
19) Dizzy Dean—493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.
20) Pete Browning
21) Spot Poles
22) Alejandro Oms
23) Joe Gordon
24) Bill Monroe
25) Rube Waddell
26) Lon Warneke
27) Jimmy Ryan
28) Charlie Keller
29) Dick Lundy
30) Leon Day
31) Dave Barnhill
32) Tommy Bridges
33) Urban Shocker
34) Ralph Kiner
35) Clark Griffith—He’s not *that* far off my ballot, the backlog just keeps getting deaper
36) Mel Harder
37) Paul Derringer
38) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
39) Dominic DiMaggio
40) Ed Ciccotte
41) Dobie Moore
42) Tommy Leach
43) Jack Quinn
44) Ray Dandridge
45) Vic Willis
46) Harry Hooper
47) Jim McCormick
48) Bob Johnson
49) Ed Roush
50) Waite Hoyt

Remaining Consensus Top 10
55) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
57) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
   66. Trevor P. Posted: October 29, 2005 at 09:41 PM (#1710893)
1963. Pretty much a cut-and-paste ballot, with the exception of Campanella.

1)Roy Campanella (–). I give Campanella credit for about 3200-3400 NeL plate appearances, from 1942-48. Frankly, if he weren’t such a great defender I don’t know if I’d have him above Irvin, but that’s what gives him the edge.
2) Monte Irvin (3). Similar to Buck Leondard.
3) George Van Haltren (4). Consolidated league. Long career. OPS+ above 120, tilting slightly in the OBP direction. Played CF. Pitched. Could steal a base. Top-ten in triples seven times. Lots of little stuff that, put together, makes a HOMer.
4) Eppa Rixey (5). Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit.
5) Jake Beckley (6). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule. Was mentally forgetting that he, like GVH, played in the one-league 1890s.
6) Red Ruffing (7). Have decided WARP3 is overrating his hitting contributions. He's still the type of player I like, though not as much as when he first debuted.
7) Quincy Trouppe (8). Have decided he’s the best available catcher. Higher estimated in-season innings than Schang, which isn’t a big thing for a career voter like myself, but it serves to separate the two.
8) Cupid Childs (9). Was best available 2B before Robinson debuted on ballot. Played in an era that was much more perilous for middle IF, and posted similar stats to Doerr, Gordon, et al.
9) Bob Elliott (10). Like Medwick/Johnson, the Hack/Elliott comparison is one more reason I hesitate to use win shares exclusively. Offensively they look about equal, with Elliott having a stronger peak. Defensively, Elliott's OF play (although not terrible by any account I've read) means he's slotting in at #8 whereas Hack made it to #2 on my ballot.
10) Edd Roush (11). Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
11) Cannonball Dick Redding (12). I don’t think he’s that far off from Paige, and he sure blows Leon Day out of the water. Second best NeL pitcher after Smokey Joe Williams counts for enough to offset the ML-equivalent 115 ERA+ (which is unspectacular) in about 3,600 innings.
12) Wally Schang(13). Dropped down in favor of Trouppe. Still think we’re placing too much importance on his in-season stats and not looking at the overall picture. He was a catcher, after all!
13) Alejandro Oms (14). OPS+ is better than GVH, though he played more corner outfield and against lesser opponents.
14) Jimmy Ryan (15). Garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.
15) Tommy Bridges (16). I'll take the guy with 201 career PRAA for #15. Shame Bridges didn't pitch more innings in his top seasons.

Wes Ferrell is just on the cuff of the ballot, as is George Sisler.
Clark Griffith is someone I've voted for before, but there are a few other pitchers in his way at the moment.
Biz Mackey has a nice juicy career but too many subpar offensive seasons. Perhaps a re-evaluation of his defense might help his case.
I'm not as sour on Joe Medwick as I was when he first debuted, but he's still about ten-fifteen spots away from my ballot, due to having fairly generic stats for a corner OF.
   67. Chris Cobb Posted: October 29, 2005 at 10:14 PM (#1710941)
1963 Ballot

1. Roy Campanella (n/e). Probably the 5th best catcher so far eligible. I’m not as high on Campanella as some: I think he and Irvin are very close in value. But, given the statistical uncertainties surrounding their records, I make a rare nod to reputation and rank Campy ahead.
2.. Monte Irvin (3). Better than I realized. His peak isn’t as large as his rate stats suggest it would be because he was less durable than some and changed leagues a lot as he was breaking in to the majors, but he was more successful in this respect than, say, Edd Roush or Joe Dimaggio. Some have expressed skepticism about his greatness given his relatively weak major-league numbers, but he matches pretty well against the outfielders elected to the HoM when his numbers from his 30s are compared to theirs. He’s not quite an all-time great like Jackie, but he’s not a borderline case. I see his record as being a bit below Harry Heilmann’s, and I suspect that, if Irvin had been able to have a career uninterrupted by war and untroubled by the strains of having to be one of the players integrating white baseball, he would probably have been better than Heilmann.
3. Clark Griffith (4). Received the most elect-me votes in 1961! Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
4. Eppa Rixey (5). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he is now getting closer to election at last. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
5. Wes Ferrell (6). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century major-league pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second? Ray Brown, of course, is the first twentieth-century pitcher to reach the HoM but not the HoF.)
6.Alejandro Oms (7). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. I think he’s the best outfield candidate eligible. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I continue to see Oms as the top outfielder candidate.
7. Red Ruffing. (8) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
8. Biz Mackey (9). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
9. Burleigh Grimes (10). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, as Grimes joins Rixey, Roush, and Cravath as representatives of that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 10 ballot spots.
10. Willard Brown (11). Probably the #4 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, and Monte Irvin. More raw power than Leonard and Irvin, I think (though less, apparently, than the mysterious Luke Easter), but his lack of plate discipline places him behind the more complete hitters. The plate-discipline issues make him very hard to rate.
11. Joe Gordon (12) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. An eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
12.Bobo Newsom (13). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border. I hope Newsom won’t get passed by without a serious look.
13. Edd Roush (14). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher. Slips a few spots, but stays on ballot.
14. Gavvy Cravath. (15) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.
15. George Sisler (16). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player. Strong class of 1962 pushed him back off of my ballot, but with only one ballot-worthy arrival in 1963, he hops back on.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #24 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #25 below
George Van Haltren. See #22 below
Jake Beckley. See #49 below
   68. Chris Cobb Posted: October 29, 2005 at 10:15 PM (#1710942)

16. Jose Mendez. (17) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention. New data from Brent gives us a window into CWL league quality during Mendez’s prime: this may help or hurt his case. I hope I’ll have time to study this in the next few “years.”
17. Dick Redding. (18) Still paired with Mendez, though the ballot line splits them this year.
18. Ralph Kiner. (19) He’s above my all-time in-out line but not on my ballot yet. Just ahead of Doerr both among 1940s stars and in my all-time list.
19. Bobby Doerr (20). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s.
20. Buzz Arlett. (21) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
21. Rube Waddell (22). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
22. George Van Haltren (23). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
23. Tommy Leach (24). Ditto.
24. Joe Medwick. (25). Still unenthusiastic about his candidacy. He isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and I think it’s overrated. I’d take Irvin, Oms, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, and Leach first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
25. Cool Papa Bell (26). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MxL data is available.
26. Bill Byrd (27). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher. He enters the ballot with contemporary Mel Harder, whom he betters, in my view, by a small amount, mostly on peak.
27. Rabbit Maranville. (28) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
28. Bucky Walters. (29) Chris J.’s RSIs move Walters ahead of Trout. Pitchers have more responsibility than other players to have their wins match their RS/RA ratio.
29. Leroy Matlock (30). A very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
30. Larry Doyle (31). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
31. Spotswood Poles (32). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look.
32. Bob Elliott. (33) Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now. The lower end of the 1940s group—Doerr, Byrd, Walters, Elliott, Trouppe, Keller, D. Dimaggio—is really hard to figure out.
33. Mickey Welch. (34) Doesn’t make my ballot now, but could again. This ballot is unbelievably deep.
34. Carl Mays. (35) Wes Ferrell lite.
35. Urban Shocker. (36) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
36. Bus Clarkson</b> . Perhaps the best player to get no support from the experts in _Cool Papas and Double Duties_. My ranking system using Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs places Clarkson virtually even with Bobby Doerr, but I think the good doctor’s MLEs are a little bit higher than what my own would be, so until I’ve a chance to run my own numbers for Clarkson, I’m going to place him conservatively at the rear of the borderline infielder group for the 1940s: Gordon (12), Doerr (20), Elliott (33), and Clarkson (37). These four are all very close in value, but when they are shuffled in with 70 years worth of borderline candidates, they end up separated by 25 slots top-to-bottom.
37. Bob Johnson (38). Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
38. Hugh Duffy. (39) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
39. Jimmy Ryan (40)
40. Roger Bresnahan (41)
41. Wally Schang (42)
42. Quincy Trouppe (43).

43-47. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Charley Jones
48-52. Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy
53-57. Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky
58-62. Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Bobby Veach
63-67. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Phil Rizzuto
68-72. Tommy Bond, Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier
73-77. Bruce Petway, Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan
78-82. Pete Browning, Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day
83-88. Tony Mullane, Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger
   69. Kelly in SD Posted: October 30, 2005 at 12:33 AM (#1711117)
1963 Ballot:

1. Roy Campanella – PHOM 1963: Long career. Give credit for some NeL and minor league career. He and Berra set the new standard for durability combined with consistent power. See my post at the end of the Campanella thread for examples. Oh, and he could throw amazingly well. Combine that with the Dodgers ability to steal bases and there is a little-known advantage the Dodgers of the 40s/50s had.

2. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901: The weight of the evidence. Over 300 wins. Everyone pitched a lot in the 19th century... well only Galvin and Keefe had more innings pitched. Compared to his compatriots, he had poor offensive support: Caruthers 111, Clarkson 109, Keefe 107, Radbourn 107, Welch 103, and Galvin 102.
Record against other HoMers: 62 – 38. The others are all around .500 or worse. His ERA+ is hurt because he was unlucky regarding unearned runs behind him. If he had luck similar to the other pitchers on his team it would be 2 or 3 points higher.

3. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906: I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. The credit is given based on the surrounding 6 years. I have him roughly 6th in peak and 1st in prime. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Also, career OPS+ of 149 is tied for 4th among eligibles behind Browning, Keller, and Cravath. His Grey Ink score is 4th among eligibles. If you adjust for season length, he has 9 20+ win share season, 6 over 25, and 4 over 30. And those totals do not include the two missing years.

4. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921: Adjusting for season length, he roughly has the second best peak and prime. Adjusting for season length, 7 years over 20 win shares, 6 over 25, and 5 over 30. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League. His Grey Ink score is in the top 10 among eligibles.

5. Wes Ferrell – PHOM 1958: 3rd highest prime behind Feller and Willis. 6th highest peak (non-consecutive) – 95 win shares behind Waddell, Willis – 100, Dean – 99, Feller – 98, and Walters 97. Only Dean had a higher per 275 innings win shares. NO other eligible has 6 seasons of at least 25 win shares. May have had a career ERA over 4.00, but the league’s run environment was so high that he posted a 117 ERA+. If not for Grove, would be remembered as the best AL pitcher between Johnson and Feller.
In 1929, he was 3rd in the league with 25 win shares while Grove was 1st with 28.
In 1930, he was 2nd with 32 win shares to Grove’s 37.
In 1931, he was 3rd with 28 win shares to Grove’s 42 and Earnshaw’s 29.
In 1932, he was 3rd with 26 win shares to Grove’s 33 and Crowder’s 30.
In 1933, he was 8th with 18 win shares.
In 1935, he was 1st with 35 win shares.
In 1936, he was 2nd with 27 win shares to Grove’s 29.

6. Monte Irvin – PHOM 1963: Excellent slugging, walks, average. War credit. 7 or 8 years over 25 win shares with several 30-ish seasons. He wasn’t in every game, but when he played he was fantastic.

7. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957: WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Tied with Pete Browning for second in peak score. Fourth in adjusted prime – Jones, Browning, Duffy. 4 seasons with 30 win shares + 2 adjusted for WWII time. Only Ralph Kiner has 4 seasons over 30 among eligibles. Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152. Was an on-base machine, with the 4th highest OBP among eligibles behind McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. Also, hit with tremendous power. His .518 SLG is behind only Kiner, Wilson, Klein, Bi Herman, K Williams, and Berger. Among position players he finished as follows: 1939 – 22 win shares – 14th in AL in rookie year. 1940 – 24 win shares – 9th in AL. 1941 – 32 win shares – 4th in AL. 1942 – 34 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1943 – 36 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1946 – 31 win shares – 4th in AL.

8. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918: Adjusted for season length, only Browning, Robinson, and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime. 7 years with at least 25 win shares. No other eligible has that. 8 years adjusting for season length which is 2nd only to GVH. 5th in Black Ink behind Cravath, Klein, Medwick, and Kiner. His Grey Ink is top 10. 5 times a win shares All-Star. An A+ outfielder who played less than 50% of his games in center. He was 2nd in 1890 PL with 26 win shares. 1891 AA 3rd with 28. 1892 NL 5th with 29. 1893 NL 1st with 28 (tied). 1894 NL 1st with 33. 1895 NL 11th with 23. 1897 8th with 25. 1898 13th with 25.

9. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958: This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts. 3 times best pitcher in NL. Only Feller, Dean, Waddell, and Willis have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Feller and Dean have more Black Ink.

10. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960: Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.
   70. Kelly in SD Posted: October 30, 2005 at 12:34 AM (#1711118)
11. Alejandro Ohms: Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic. I don’t have much more to go on than his thread and the translations.

12. Luke Easter: I give various bits of credit for WWII, NeL play, Industrial League play, and barnstorming. He was a fearsome power hitter who played forever.

13. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942: Only Ruffing and Rixey have a higher career win share total. He is tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. He has the highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers. First in NL twice (1899, 1901). Top 10 pitcher in 1902, 1903, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909.

14. Willard Brown: Reduced a bit because of questions I have about how successful he could have been with the low translated walk levels. Does have the long series of 25+ win shares seasons that my system loves.

15. Burleigh Grimes - PHOM 1961: Had the big years that Ruffing and Rixey did not. 6 times a win shares all-star. Less run support than Ruffing. Black Ink total is 7th among eligibles. Grey Ink is 3rd among eligibles. I urge others to review his candidacy.

Top 10s and newbies:
16. Dobie Moore: I give 3 years of credit for Wreckers play. If I gave more, he would be on the ballot. Very high level of performance hitting and fielding for a shortstop. Too bad he jumped out of the whorehouse window and broke his leg.
17. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Yet another long career, high prime player. Nine years with over 25 win shares after you adjust for season length. Could move up next election if Brown moves down.
18. Edd Roush (PHOM 1940): I’ll take the high average and good power he provided. A good fielder in CF. I still think the group voted in a mistake when they went head-over-heals for Max Carey.
19. Wilbur Cooper: Stuck on the Pirates during the trough between the successes in the Oughts and the mid-20s. Long consistent career with higher peaks than Ruffing or Rixey.
20. Biz Mackey: A great fielder, but I like more hitting.
21. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932): Still haven’t made up my mind about what sort of boost to give because of how difficult it was to play middle infield during the 1890s. A walking machine. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.
22. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Great leadoff hitter. Took walks. Good fielder. Still want him back on the ballot. Has he been lost to history because he played with the Giants before Frisch got there?
23. Tommy Leach: Long career. Amazing fielder. Key player that allowed the Pirates to get great performances from so many different pitchers during the first 15 years of the century.
24. Red Ruffing: I see very little difference between him and Lefty Gomez. The Yankees results when they started are very similar. Lefty Gomez pitched better against the better teams. Ruffing pitched worse than the average Yankee pitcher against first division teams.
25. Joe Medwick: 3 big years is not enough. Too much disparity between his peak and everything else. 3 years over 30 and 6 others barely over 20.

George Kell: About 130th among eligible pitchers and position players.
Walker Cooper: Not enough big years, though 1947 was fantastic.

Beckley: Around 110th-115th. No peak and a very low prime. No seasons with 25 win shares.
Rixey: No peak. Low level, but long term prime. Long careers with no peak / little prime do the worst in my system.
Waddell: Too inconsistent. Great peak, but not enough surrounding support. Big strikeout totals do not impress me. If the strikeouts were supposed to help because they prevented balls in play during a time when there were lots of errors, why did Waddell allow slightly more unearned runs than expected based on his team’s performances.
Sisler: About 36th. Peak and prime do not match the players on the ballot. Look at his homepark. Its like Colorado in some years. Look at Hornsby’s splits for example. Remember, the two teams shared a home park.
Kiner: In a giant knot around 30th. I don’t agree with the placement, but I haven’t figured out why he comes out so low. I expected 15th to 20th. His peak and prime are a little lower than the guys on the ballot and the career is short.
   71. dan b Posted: October 30, 2005 at 01:49 AM (#1711181)
1.Campy Bill James calls him 4th best C ever behind Gibson, Berra and Bench.
2.Irvin Moving up.
3.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
4.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
5.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
6.Kiner Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles.
7.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s still underrepresented.
8.Ferrell Tweaking my system to favor peak over career in evaluating pitchers moves Ferrell up.
9.Brown, Willard
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
12.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
13.Ruffing Or should Rixey be just ahead of Ruffing?
14.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
15.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
16.Walters See Ferrell.
17.Keller2nd look moves him close to making my ballot.
18.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
19.W. Cooper Of pitchers whose career began after 1910 and are now eligible for our consideration, Cooper has more WS over 10 consecutive seasons than any pitcher except Alexander, Grove and Hubbell. PHoM 1942.
20. Mays I still like him better than Vance or Faber.
   72. Brent Posted: October 30, 2005 at 04:32 AM (#1711251)
I wrote:

I just ran across my scorecard from a game I saw Koufax pitch - I'll have to go to retrosheet and see if I can find it.

I located the game, June 12, 1964--the Dodgers (Koufax) beat the Cardinals (Broglio) 3-0; Sandy pitched a 4-hit complete-game shutout. Comparing my scorecard with retrosheet I see that I made a few mistakes--left out a pinch hitter and a relief pitcher and had a couple of plays recorded incorrectly. I continue to be amazed at the data available through Retrosheet.
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2005 at 01:44 PM (#1711375)
I continue to be amazed at the data available through Retrosheet.

David Smith rules!
   74. yest Posted: October 30, 2005 at 06:15 PM (#1711607)
Is there any way to get rid of the wide screen?
1963 ballot
Campanella and Kell make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Roy Campanella with out Negro League credit he‘ll be in the 20’s or 30‘s (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
8. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
9. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
11. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
12. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
15. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
16. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
17. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
20. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Edd Roush323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
32. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
34. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice
35. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
Monte Irvin his NL career wasn’t good enough to make me think he was really great before it
   75. Brent Posted: October 30, 2005 at 07:30 PM (#1711687)
Is there any way to get rid of the wide screen?

I had to start using Internet Explorer.
   76. Jeff M Posted: October 30, 2005 at 07:36 PM (#1711694)
1963 Ballot

1. Campanella, Roy – Three MVPs for a catcher is impressive, even if some feel he shouldn’t have won a couple of them. He must have been close. Seemed to have become a better hitter after he reached the majors, but Negro League performances show him durable and a defensive rock.

2. Mackey, Biz – First time I’ve had catchers #1 and #2. My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

3. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

6. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

7. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

8. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

9. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

10. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

11. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

12. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions in the quality of #12-#15 on my ballot.

13. Clarkson, Bus – I give up. I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

14. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

15. Gordon, Joe – I think he’s quite a bit ahead of Doerr, at least in terms of where he is on the ballot. Most of the gap is probably meaningless on an actual baseball diamond.

Required Disclosure(s):

Irvin, Monte – I’ve got him about where I would have a guy like Reggie Smith…on the cusp. I think he had (would have had) more WS than #12-#15 on my ballot, but in comparison to other outfielders, he doesn’t get there.

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he is better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that is a pre-requisite to the HoM.

Griffith, Clark – Was on my ballot last year, but the newcomers pushed him off. Prefer him strongly to Rixey, and vociferously to Ruffing.
   77. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2005 at 09:26 PM (#1711798)
For example, he’s got 28.3 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season.

Actually, Medwick's rate is 25.47.
   78. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 31, 2005 at 01:07 AM (#1712030)
1962 was a pretty special year for this Giants fan. A great season, almost perfect one, except --Why couldn’t McCovey … ???

Wow, you guys are old!

I saw THE perfect game, Larsen’s, on TV. I just checked a perpetual calendar: 10/8/56 was a Monday, so I must have been home from school, “sick”. Funny thing, I got sick quite frequently in October back then. :-)

Never saw Koufax pitch in person, but between Games of the Week and the Series, I saw quite a bit of him on teevee. He’s the only pitcher I’ve ever seen whose speed and stuff made me think, “This just isn’t fair.”

Anyway, 1963 ballot:

1. Roy Campanella: At best, the #2 catcher so far, at worst, #5. No matter, there’s nobody else on the board at that level. (PHOM 1963)

2. Red Ruffing: I’ve been wondering for several years if he’ll be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams. Obviously not doomed, but it’s touch and go. Career stats aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. A pennant is a pennant? He was an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners. (PHOM 1956)

3. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 7th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). SWW believes that Negro Leaguers would be astonished by Bell not being in our HOM. I wonder if the HOF Negro League committee will be similarly astonished. (PHOM 1957)

4. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

5. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

6. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (PHOM 1958)

7. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

8. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

9. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher.

10. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4. (PHOM 1963)

11. Monte Irvin: I like him a bit better than Medwick and the gang, so I’ll put him here. He could move up or down, probably up.

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

13. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

14. Clark Griffith: Moved back on the ballot a few years ago when the crowd thinned, and lingers on. PHOM 1945.

15. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (PHOM 1929)

Leaving these in place, they’ll likely be back at some time:

16. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson).
17. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, and I don't see what Ferrell's got (except for a bat) that he doesn't. Goofy's ahead on black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for better teams. I think he had something to do with them being good.
18. Wes Ferrell: Right behind Gomez.
19. Bob Johnson
20. Rube Waddell

Required comment:
Wes Ferrell: See above, he’s 18th.

New person:
George Kell is the only reasonable candidate, and a fringe one. 5th on my 3b depth chart.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940).
   79. Andrew M Posted: October 31, 2005 at 04:13 AM (#1712236)
1963 Ballot

1. (new) Roy Campanella. Easy top selection on this ballot. Fits in well with Cochrane, Dickey, and Hartnett.

2. (3) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.81 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

3. (4) Dobie Moore. At his best, I think Moore may have been as good as any position player on this ballot, and with a few years credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (7) Monte Irvin. The projections we have would seem to put him in the top tier of eligible OFs. Best player ever whose last name begins with the letter “I”.

5. (6) Eppa Rixey. Long, consistent career. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but an ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings looks ballot-worthy to me--and a step above Ruffing.

6. (6) Larry Doyle. His career OPS+ (126) is outstanding for a middle infielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and over Gordon (and Doerr) because I think his peak was higher—though it’s close if you factor in some type of league discount (which, for various reasons, I don’t do much of.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from everything I’ve read about him.

7. (8) Geo. Van Haltren. Figuring out where he belongs in the OF glut is difficult as there aren’t any guys with truly similar careers. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

8. (9) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a real peak, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, which is why he isn’t higher. Just for fun, it would be interesting to know whether many contemporary baseball observers thought Averill or Bob Johnson were better players than Medwick.

9. (10) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

10. (11) Edd Roush. You hear a lot of odd things about this guy, and I have a hard time getting a clear picture of Roush’s career. A good CF and among the best players in the NL for a decade. Also had a couple of MVP type seasons and was the one of the best players on a team that won a World Series.

11. (12) George Sisler. Back on the ballot thanks to his proximity to Medwick and Averill in various peak/career calculations. Not much after 1922, but a lot of guys on this ballot were basically finished by the age of 30.

12. (13) Rube Waddell. Downgraded for general unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.63/3.81. Relatively short career, but a considerable peak.

13. (14) Wes Ferrell. Great pitcher until the age of 30. Could also hit a little….

14. (15) George Burns. In a lot of ways I like him better than his contemporary Edd Roush. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could get on base, run, field, and always showed up to play.

15. (16) Red Ruffing. Too much career value to ignore.

Next 5
16. Alejandro Oms
17. Joe Gordon
18. Hugh Duffy
19. Quincy Trouppe
20. Willard Brown

Required disclosures:

Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe, though it’s close. He’s around #30 on my ballot
   80. yest Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:50 AM (#1712352)
Best player ever whose last name begins with the letter “I”.

off the top my head number 2 would be Pete Incaviglia?
not much compition
   81. Howie Menckel Posted: October 31, 2005 at 01:32 PM (#1712399)
Yeah, Mike Ivie may rank 3rd.
Then there's Frank Isbell, a pair of Iorgs, and a bunch of guys with the last name of Irwin.
I'll leave it there, so as not to hijack the ballot thread. Further comment probably belongs on "ballot discussion."
   82. Rusty Priske Posted: October 31, 2005 at 01:40 PM (#1712404)
The first World Series I remember watching was Pittsburgh vs Baltimore in '79.

I would have been 11.

Those two teams have perpetuated a history of winning that, uh... forget it.
   83. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2005 at 01:57 PM (#1712420)
At this point, I have 39 ballots tabulated. Still missing a ballot from: PhillyBooster, Patrick W, Al Peterson, Esteban Rivera, the Commish, Devin McCullen, Ken Fischer, Michael Bass, KJOK, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, and James Newburg.

Since Carl Goetz didn't vote in the previous five elections, he has been removed from the list.

BTW, I'm moving tomorrow, so I would greatly appreciate not seeing the ballots come in at the last second tonight (if that's possible :-). I wont be online tomorrow - hopefully I will be back on Wed.
   84. OCF Posted: October 31, 2005 at 02:32 PM (#1712439)
I have 76 players receiving votes, tying the record. We're sure to make it to at least 77 - for one thing, Monroe has no votes yet, while the three people who voted for him last year are all on the list in John's #83.
   85. Ken Fischer Posted: October 31, 2005 at 02:42 PM (#1712452)
1963 Ballot

1-Roy Campanella 207 WS
Win shares would be higher if there had not been a color barrier. A really good man and a great career.

2-Monte Irvin
I left Monte off my ballot last time by accident…he would’ve been number 3. I would’ve liked to have seen him in his prime in a Negro League All-Star game.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

4-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

6-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

7-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

11-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

12-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

13-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

14-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

15-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

Ferrell just misses at number 16. I’m still not high on Griffith. Once Welch is in I’ll take a more serious look at Clark…I’ll probably be waiting a long time. I agree with Bill James on Sisler…way overrated.
   86. PhillyBooster Posted: October 31, 2005 at 05:38 PM (#1712813)
Before I take the girls treak'r'treating:

1. Roy Campanella (n/e) -- Satchel Paige was mellow, but so was he. (Newcombe and Doby, too).

2. Eppa Rixey (3) -- Lots and lots of above average innings.

3. Jake Beckley (4) -- the Eppa Rixey of hitters.

4. Gavvy Cravath (5) -- Trying to get up and back to the majors could
be consider a "war" of sorts. Full war credit for at least 5 years of PCL
and AA play makes this an easy choice.

5. Monte Irvin (off) -- missed the boat first time around.

6. Jose Mendez (6) -- Imagine that MLB was a 4-team league. How would Mendez's
numbers stack up against comparable HoMers?

7. Mickey Welch (7) -- Closely comparable to HoMer Keefe. His numbers are
what they are. Attempts to minimize them are merely rationalizations.

8. Dolf Luque (8) -- Photoshop his skin a few shades darker, and make him a
rookie is 1947 and he's the Jackie Robinson of pitchers, with a comparable or
better post-integration career. Recognizing shades of gray puts Luque high.

9. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- A highly leveraged Joe Torre.

10. Biz Mackey (10) -- Almost Bresnahanian is his exploits.

11. Cupid Childs (11) -- More love for the 1890s.

12. Clark Griffith (12) -- Always a bridesmaid is good enough to be a bride.

13. Hugh Duffy (13) -- You can't tell me the 40th best guy in 1940 is better than
the 20th best guy 50 years earlier.

14. Dick Redding (14) -- Yet another 2nd best who is better than all the third bests.

15. George van Haltren (15) -- Again, because none of the newfangled guys are better.
   87. Al Peterson Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:45 PM (#1712957)
1963 ballot. I seem to get later every week which is not a good sign. One rookie on the ballot – I think he’ll only be seen this year.

1.Roy Campanella (-). Yeah the NeL credit is in here. Really didn’t need help to a large extent.

2.Joe Medwick (3). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

3.Clark Griffith (4). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

4.Bob Johnson (5). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

5.Dick Redding (6). Pitched in both the Negro and Cuban leagues and did it fairly well. CANNONBALL!!!

6.Bobby Doerr (7). Middle IF who is slightly above many others in the running for HOM. Billy Herman minus a little.

7.Red Ruffing (8). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey is right around here also but a little lower.

8.Jimmy Ryan (9). Quality OF for extended time period.

9. Monte Irvin (10). Excellent analysis throughout the various threads on this guy. After some thought, I don’t move him from last week.

10.Pete Browning (11). Born hitter, also born with numerous other problems which drag his stock down.

11.Biz Mackey (12). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

12.Eppa Rixey (13). A nod to tilting my ballot toward pitchers a bit more. Winningest lefty until Warren Spahn came along which was quite some time.

13.Cool Papa Bell (14). I’m going to throw in another outfielder. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

14. Hugh Duffy (15). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. Duffy has showed up occasionally before so I’m not upset to see him mentioned again.

15. Frank Chance (16). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. All folks down this way on the ballot have flaws so the playing time issue is lessened at least for a ballot mention.

16-20:Roush, Dobie Moore, Mullane, Waddell, Leach
21-25:Poles, Van Haltren, Berger, F. Jones, Easter
26-30:Byrd, Childs, Bridges, Cicotte, Kiner
31-35:McGraw, Sewell, Sisler, Lundy, Trout
36-40:Willard Brown, D. Leonard, Veach, Grimes, Roy Thomas
41-45:Gordon, Ferrell, Trouppe, Ben Taylor, Willis
46-50:Elliott, Beckley, C. Mays, Hack Wilson, Artie Wilson

Top Returnees: Ferrell (#42) and Sisler (#33) both are great peak candidates. I tend to do some mixing of peak and career and they come up short. Van Haltren (#22) is around the fringes of the ballot for me. He’s on one year, off another, kinda like him being on the cusp of the HOM.

New guys: Kell hit for average very well but lacks the career longevity, power numbers and other items to get much momentum toward election. Cooper – not placing him above the 50 listed. Good player but then so are many people I haven’t mentioned except to note their eligibility.
   88. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:56 PM (#1712983)
I may not get the results posted on time due to my move, but I will definitely have them online sometime tonight at the latest.
   89. Evan Posted: October 31, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1712990)
John, it's not as if this election is much of a nail-biter, anyway.
   90. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:10 PM (#1713010)
John, it's not as if this election is much of a nail-biter, anyway.

Shhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-D
   91. OCF Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1713019)
Luque is the 77th candidate to receive a vote this year, which sets a record (previous record 76). Since Monroe is nearly certain to appear on two or three of the remaining balllots, we will make it to 78 at least.

I won't post anything about consensus scores until I have a chance to look at the results to debug my own data, since I usually have a few mistakes. We're headed towards an average consensus score near -4. Oh, and what Evan said.
   92. Tiboreau Posted: October 31, 2005 at 07:47 PM (#1713069)
1. c Roy Campanella (nc)—Not as good as I first thought, but still a Top 10 catcher and easy HoMer.
2. lf Monte Irvin (3)—Closer to the borderline candidates below him than the no-brainers above, but still solid HoM candidate.
3. sp Wes Ferrell (4, 1, 2)—His peak is comparable to compatriot Lefty Grove and places him among the top 3 pitchers of the ‘30s. ERA+ underrates Ferrell considering his consistent presence among the IP leaders, his attempts to hang on at the end of his career, and his aptitude as a hitter.
4. cf Hugh Duffy (5, 3, 5)—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up only 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
5. lf Joe Medwick (6, 4, 6)—Win Shares sees Medwick in a better light than either WARP or traditional stats and the WWII seasons need to be docked a bit, but in the end I see Ducky Wucky as among the best of the outfield candidates with an excellent peak and good career.
6. ss Dobie Moore (8, 6, 8)—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
7. sp Clark Griffith (7, 2, 3)—A good balance between peak and career: his peak value is closer to Ferrell, Waddell and Mays than Rixey and Grimes, while his career value isn’t too far off the latter group and solidly ahead of the former.
8. 2b Cupid Childs (12, 10, 12)—One of the best infielders of the underrepresented 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
9. cf Alejandro Oms (9, 9, 11)—The poor man’s Paul Waner. Only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a real good peak IMO as well as a real good career (340 WS).
10. sp Bucky Walters (10, 8, 10)—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
11. rf Willard Brown (11, ob)—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
12. 2b Joe Gordon (15, 14, ob)—It seems that 2b is to the infield glut what cf has been to the outfield glut. By my count there are 7 serious 2b candidates, including 1 1890s candidate (Childs\Duffy) and 2 Negro Leaguers (Monroe & Scales\Bell & Poles). Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.
13. sp Jose Mendez (13, 11, 13)—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
14. cf Edd Roush (14, 12, 14)— Like Sisler, I underrated his peak due to the war-shortened seasons of of 1918 - 19. Nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771).
15. 1b George Sisler (ob)—Have been underrating him due to the shortened war seasons during his peak and the greater importance of fielding at his position during the era.

Required Disclosures:
20. sp Eppa Rixey (ob, 15, ob)—Nearly 4500 IP with a 115 ERA+, the best of the long career, low peak pitchers eligible.
21. c Biz Mackey (ob)—Third best catcher of the Negro Leagues, whose primary value was in his defense. Best of the group of borderline catchers, followed by Roger Bresnahan and Wally Schang (I'm not sure what to make of Quincy Trouppe as of yet).
26. sp Red Ruffing (ob)—Like Rixey, Ruffing had a long and valuable career but not enough of a peak to make my ballot. Questions regarding the support he received playing for the Yankees and the dichotomy between his Boston and New York careers also cloud the issue.
   93. Jeff M Posted: October 31, 2005 at 08:44 PM (#1713172)
Actually, Medwick's rate is 25.47.

Right you are. I somehow double counted WS for two two-team years.
   94. Jeff M Posted: October 31, 2005 at 08:51 PM (#1713194)
Is there any way to get rid of the wide screen?

I had to start using Internet Explorer.

I think it might be related to the length of the intro stuff, or some other setting when John creates a thread/topic. I only get the widescreen on the 1963 ballot page, but it doesn't happen on the Bob Lemon, or Negro League Election or Larry Doby threads (the only other ones I tested before writing this e-mail).

I think that means you can still use Firefox (or whatever other browser) if John can figure out why one thread is skinny and one is wide. It does not appear to me to be a browser issue.
   95. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2005 at 08:58 PM (#1713211)
I think that means you can still use Firefox (or whatever other browser) if John can figure out why one thread is skinny and one is wide. It does not appear to me to be a browser issue.

It's a problem with the new programming. Jim has been notified of it.

I have no idea why one thread has the problem and another one doesn't. Weird.
   96. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 31, 2005 at 09:11 PM (#1713244)
Trust me, thought went into this. I just have to go out now and I'm not sure I'll be back in time to do my usual ballot. PHoM is Campy and Irvin

1. Roy Campanella
2. Tommy Leach
3. Bill Monroe
4. Monte Irvin
5. Wes Ferrell
6. Quincy Trouppe
7. Willard Brown
8. Dick Redding
9. Joe Sewell
10. Phil Rizzuto
11. Cupid Childs
12. Bobby Doerr
13. Dobie Moore
14. Bob Elliott
15. George Van Haltren

Ruffing 16, Medwick 17, Mackey 20, Sisler 32, Griffith 35.
   97. OCF Posted: October 31, 2005 at 09:28 PM (#1713280)
There's one of the Monroe votes I was waiting for.

   98. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 31, 2005 at 09:48 PM (#1713325)
1963 Ballot:

1. Roy Campanella – Three MVP’s, Negro league credit and one of the finest catchers the game has seen. Easy number one for me.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

8. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

9. Monte Irvin – The numbers and reputation give him a sense of being HOM worthy Moves up a bit this year.

10. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan in my consideration set.

11. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

12. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

13. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

15. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.
   99. Michael Bass Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1713354)
I'll be quick. Getting swamped lately, last week was the first time I missed since I've joined (for the record, would have had Feller 1, Jackie 2).

1. Campanella - Easy #1, close to #1 even with no Negro League credit. Great catcher peak.
2. Ferrell
3. Moore
4. Mendez
5. Irvin - I had a real problem with this ranking, because his ML career is not remotely HOM worthy. But a detailed look at the translations shows them justified; he simple fell off a cliff in his early 30s, not the first or last HOMer to do that.
6. Doerr
7. Ruffing
8. Walters
9. Dean
10. Sewell
11. Griffith
12. Williard Brown
13. Gordon
14. Trouppe
15. Bob Johnson
   100. Tiboreau Posted: October 31, 2005 at 10:06 PM (#1713367)
I think that means you can still use Firefox (or whatever other browser) if John can figure out why one thread is skinny and one is wide. It does not appear to me to be a browser issue.

It's a problem with the new programming. Jim has been notified of it.

I have no idea why one thread has the problem and another one doesn't. Weird.

I believe it has to do with the flexible width--when someone's comments include a long line with no spacing, such as identifying a candidate's voting history, the width expands.
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