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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

1964 Most Meritorious Player: Discussion

In one of the most exciting seasons in recent years, the pennant races in both leagues went down to the last few days.  The American League race featured a three-way tie for first as late as 17 September, with the Yankees, White Sox and Baltimore with a ten-game lead over the rest of the pack. The Yankees took sole control of first place on 19 September, and managed to hang on for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, in the National League, the Phillies had a five-game lead over the Cardinals, having been in first place since 21 July. Their collapse started on 21 September, and finished on the 27th when the Reds ran them down and passed them. However, the drama was not finished. St Louis succeeded in overtaking Cincinnati on 29 September, and at season’s close were top of the pile. 1963’s Yankee post-season flop was not repeated in 1964. Instead, the excitement of a seven-game ding-dong battle between two teams that saw the Redbirds emerge victorious over the Pinstripes.

                          WS       BB-ref WAR
Dick Allen                 41           9.1
Willie Mays               38           10.2
Ron Santo                 36           7.9
Mickey Mantle           34           5.7    
Brooks Robinson         33           8.1
Frank Robinson           33           7.6
Hank Aaron               33           7.1
Dean Chance             32             8.1
Elston Howard             32           6.0
Ron Hansen               30           7.4
Roberto Clemente         30           6.8
Denis Menke               29           6.7
Boog Powell                 29           6.2
Johnny Callison             29           5.5
Jim Fregosi                 28           8.1
Ken Boyer                   28           5.6
Joe Torre                   28           5.3
Billy Williams               28           4.2
Pete Ward                 27           6.4
Tony Oliva                 27           5.9
Rico Carty                   27           5
Don Drysdale               26           8.3
Willie Davis                 26           7.6
Bill White                 26             4.6
Bob Allison                 25           6.2
Juan Marichal             25           6.2
Larry Jackson               25             5.9
Bill Freehan                 25           5.4
Sandy Koufax               24           7.2
Bob Gibson                 24           6.2
Whitey Ford                 24           6.2
Chris Short                   21           5.9
Bob Veale                   21           5.7
Bob Bruce                   18           5.8

Mr Dashwood Posted: August 10, 2011 at 04:18 AM | 89 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: August 10, 2011 at 12:09 PM (#3896942)
Mays vs. Allen vs. Santo is very sensitive to defense, so I hope we give the fielding numbers some extra scrutiny this year.
   2. Qufini Posted: August 10, 2011 at 12:31 PM (#3896945)
Defensive metrics will be critical, but also any positional bonuses. How much of a consideration to you give to Allen and Santo (and further down the ballot Brooks and Boyer) for playing third base?
   3. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: August 10, 2011 at 12:58 PM (#3896951)
I show 3B as 6 runs above CF in 1964. I'm far more confident in my positional adjustments than I am in historical evaluations of defense.
   4. DL from MN Posted: August 10, 2011 at 01:31 PM (#3896969)
I think we can add this amendment to the rules for this election.

"All voters must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends."

"All voters who did not vote in the previous year's election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends."
   5. DL from MN Posted: August 10, 2011 at 01:41 PM (#3896973)
1964 Prelim

1) Ron Santo
2) Willie Mays
3) Dean Chance
4) Dick Allen
5) Brooks Robinson
6) Jim Fregosi
7) Don Drysdale
8) Frank Robinson
9) Denis Menke (a guy I hadn't heard of until this week)
10) Sandy Koufax

11-15) Ron Hansen, Elston Howard, Mickey Mantle, Bob Allison, Boog Powell
16-20) Roberto Clemente, Tony Oliva, Henry Aaron, Pete Ward, Whitey Ford
   6. OCF Posted: August 10, 2011 at 04:17 PM (#3897106)
1964. A year that probably should have been the year I became a fan. I was 11 years old, and the kids around me on the playground knew all about the Cardinals, and the Cardinals won. But somehow I wasn't paying that close attention. It was the 1967 Cardinals that captured me. Runs scored per game in the NL recovered from 3.82 to 4.04, while the AL, which hadn't dipped as low in the first place, stayed the same, 4.08 to 4.07.

A look at some pitchers, by RA+ equivalent record. The numbers in brackets are the equivalent Fibonacci Win Points for that record. As always, the two most important things that this omits are pitcher's hitting and team defensive support.

Dean Chance: 23-7 [34]
Whitey Ford: 19-8 [24]
Joel Horlen: 16-7 [21]
Gary Peters: 19-12 [19]
Dick Radatz: 13-5 [17]
Jim Bouton: 18-12 [16]
Sam McDowell: 12-7 [11]

Applying my experimental adjustment for inherited runners moves Radatz to 15-7 [19].

Don Drysdale: 23-12 [26]
Sandy Koufax: 18-6 [25]
Larry Jackson: 21-12 [22]
Bob Gibson: 20-12 [20]
Juan Marichal: 19-11 [20]
Chris Short: 17-8 [20]
Jim O'Toole: 16-8 [18]
Bob Veale: 18-13 [17]
Gaylord Perry: 15-8 [17]
Jim Bunning: 17-15 [10]

As for the hitting: this was a year in which even good-hitting pitchers, like Gibson, had bad years. Far and away, the best hitter of this lot was Peters again, although his 65 OPS+ wasn't the 104 he'd had in 1963. The best hitting of the NL pitchers was Drysdale, whose 22 OPS+ wasn't really up to his usual standards. Koufax, as usual, was bad, although not as bad as he sometimes was, and not as bad as Perry. The worst hitter of all of these was Chance. But Chance was, for one year, anyway, the best pitcher.

All voters who did not vote in the previous year's election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends.

Technically, I never posted a 1963 prelim before I posted a ballot. I'm not sure anyone noticed.
   7. DL from MN Posted: August 10, 2011 at 04:41 PM (#3897117)
I have been very lenient with what I consider a "prelim". I'm counting you as an "aye".
   8. DanG Posted: August 10, 2011 at 05:11 PM (#3897149)
Dick Radatz three-peats as the game's top reliever. John Wyatt becomes the first man to pitch in 80 games in one season. Rookies Bob Lee and Sammy Ellis make a big splash.

Rk         Player WAR ERA+  WHIP   WPA  G GS    IP Age  Tm Lg GF  W L SV
1     Dick Radatz 5.2  168 1.025 3.732 79  0 157.0  27 BOS AL 67 16 9 29
2         Bob Lee 3.7  217 1.058 2.765 64  5 137.0  26 LAA AL 39  6 5 19
3       Wes Stock 3.3  167 1.126 2.516 64  0 113.2  30 TOT AL 20  8 3  5
4       Al McBean 3.0  184 1.037 2.591 58  0  89.2  26 PIT NL 49  8 3 22
5     Sammy Ellis 2.7  141 1.054 2.741 52  5 122.1  23 CIN NL 32 10 3 14
6    Hoyt Wilhelm 2.3  174 0.944 3.166 73  0 131.1  41 CHW AL 55 12 9 27
7     Don McMahon 2.2  150 1.178 1.997 70  0 101.0  34 CLE AL 39  6 4 16
8      Ed Roebuck 2.2  153 1.047 1.825 62  0  78.1  32 TOT ML 28  5 3 12
9       Dick Hall 2.1  195 0.844 2.816 45  0  87.2  33 BAL AL 28  9 1  7
10     John Wyatt 2.0  107 1.273 1.251 81  0 128.0  29 KCA AL 57  9 8 20 
   9. OCF Posted: August 10, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3897254)
Adding Bob Lee (AL - Angels, to be specific) to my previous post:

I have him at 11-4. Applying the adjustment for inherited runners moves him to 13-7, which doesn't make much difference. (Radatz was a little better against inherited runners.) As a hitter ... well, OK, he was .000/.043/.000 with no sacs. But the fact that it was 23 PA limited the damage done.

Lee was a 26 year old rookie. He was listed at 6-3, 225, and (presumably as a consequence of that physique) is listed as having "Moose" and "Horse" as nicknames - nicknames which wouldn't distinguish him from a dozen or so other guys. The stats for his minor league career are mostly missing the strikeout column. There are certainly hints that he was a power pitcher, and his control wasn't great. He bounced up and down. He spent most of 1963 in an A ball league, where (as a starting pitcher), he was distinctly too good for the league. That's another thing that that looks peculiar to 21st century eyes: a 25 year old in A ball, after having pitched at higher levels earlier in his career? These days, the lower minors pretty much operate on an "up or out" basis. He did make one major league All-Star team, the next year (1965).
   10. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 10, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#3897340)
1964 Prelim:

1 Willie Mays
2 Jim Fregosi
3 Dean Chance
4 Ron Hansen
5 Dick Allen
6 Sandy Koufax
7 Don Drysdale
8 Brooks Robinson
9 Frank Robinson
10 Hank Aaron
11 Whitey Ford
12 Ron Santo
13 Denis Menke
14 Willie Davis
15 Boog Powell
16 Chris Short
17 Juan Marichal
18 Roberto Clemente
19 Bob Allison
20 Pete Ward

I never heard of Ron Hansen before, 115 OPS+ and BBREF WAR has him as an elite defender at SS- I used that, if he was just average at SS he'd be around 25th.
Dean Chance would edge in first if he was just an average hitter- for a pitcher

bubbling under:

Elston Howard, Joe Horlen, Bill Freehan, Tony Oliva, Dick Radatz, Joe Torre, Bob Gibson, Luis Aparicio, Jim Bunning, Jim O'Toole
   11. DL from MN Posted: August 10, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#3897343)
I'd like to end this election on 9/7 after Labor Day weekend.
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 10, 2011 at 08:20 PM (#3897378)
He spent most of 1963 in an A ball league, where (as a starting pitcher), he was distinctly too good for the league.

Lee was signed by the Pirates in 1956, and kicked around their minor league system for years, never getting above Class A. In 1962, from what I can tell, he was loaned to Dallas-Ft. Worth, the American Association team that the fledgling Angels shared with the Phillies, and after a poor season there he was returned to the Pirates. Lee opened at Asheville (AA) but after five ineffective appearances there was sent to Batavia.

Back in the 1960s, the Pirates and Indians used to play two in-season exhibition games, one in each city (the Pittsburgh game benefited an organization called Help Young People Organize, or HYPO, which promoted local youth sports programs if I remember correctly). These games were usually pitched by players from the farm teams, and Lee was tapped to pitch the one in Cleveland in August after winning 13 in a row for Batavia (he would finish the regular season on an 18-game streak, but was removed early with an arm problem in the postseason series that Batavia won). He was brilliant, pitching a complete game and fanning 16. This wasn't against the scrubs, either; most of Cleveland's regulars played. The Angels apparently took notice; they purchased Lee conditionally in October and he made the big club out of spring training.

Lee always had a live arm, but control was a problem. I presume the expanded strike zone helped him a lot.

-- MWE

PS In that exhibition game Lee also had two doubles and scored a run. The references that I have been able to uncover for him suggest that (1964 aside) he was a pretty good hitter for a pitcher.
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 10, 2011 at 08:26 PM (#3897386)
I never heard of Ron Hansen before

Came up with Baltimore in 1960 as one of the "Baby Birds", was the AL RoY and finished fifth in the MVP voting as the surprising Orioles made a run at the Yankees. Never had as good a full season again, although he came close in 1964. Was traded for Luis Aparicio after the 1962 season. Biggest claim to fame was turning an unassisted triple play in 1968 while with Washington, the first one in 41 years and the last one for 24 more. He was traded three days later, for one of the players for whom he had originally been traded in the first place (Tim Cullen).

-- MWE
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 10, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#3897395)

1) Dick Allen
2) Willie Mays
3) Ron Santo
4) Mickey Mantle
5) Hank Aaron
6) Dean Chance
7) Elston Howard
8) Frank Robinson
9) Brooks Robinson
10)Boog Powell
   15. OCF Posted: August 10, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#3897398)
Mike: let me just say that I really appreciate posts like your #12 and #13, and I hope you make more of them.

On the whole MMP project, I'm really more interested in the discussion than the actual voting.
   16. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 10, 2011 at 09:00 PM (#3897406)
I think we can add this amendment to the rules for this election.

"All voters must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends."

"All voters who did not vote in the previous year's election must post a preliminary ballot in the ballot discussion thread at least 2 days before voting ends."

   17. DanG Posted: August 10, 2011 at 09:29 PM (#3897421)
Looking at minor leaguers a bit.

Mack Jones dominated the IL, leading the league (mostly by wide margins) in HR (39), RBI (102), SLG (.630), R (109) and TB (336).

More later.
   18. Mr Dashwood Posted: August 10, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3897426)
As far as 1963 goes, I rate Hansen well ahead of Aparicio, so that worked out well for the White Sox.
   19. Rob_Wood Posted: August 10, 2011 at 10:35 PM (#3897448)
Ron Hansen had a couple of good seasons after getting traded to the White Sox. He was a tall shortstop and fairly thin. He had some pop in his bat and hit 20 home runs in 1964 (playing half his games at Comiskey Park), undoubtedly his best season. His career was beset with back problems which limited his effectiveness post 1965.
   20. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 11, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#3897555)
Mike: let me just say that I really appreciate posts like your #12 and #13, and I hope you make more of them.

You're welcome. Since the 60s were my formative years as a baseball fan, I remember quite a bit about that era, and will try to chime in where appropriate when I have time.

Lee was signed by Hollywood (PCL) in 1956 out of Bellflower, an LA suburb. The PCL was an open classification league, and even though most of the teams were affiliated with major league teams the agreement allowed them to sign their own players and use the lower-level farm teams of the major league affiliates as a mini-farm system of their own. The major league team, in turn, could buy players that the PCL affiliate signed. This is what happened with Lee - Hollywood sent him to the Pirates' affiliates in Billings and Douglas in 1956, and then sold him to the Pirates the following year.

I did dig up Lee's K totals for Batavia in 1962 - he fanned 240 hitters in 185 innings. He pitched for a number of years in the Panamanian winter league, which folded after the 1961-1962 season, and had some pretty good outings there (including setting a league record with six consecutive strikeouts). Had he come along a few years later so that both expansion and the super-sized strike zone hit while he was a few years younger, he very well could have had a Jim Maloney-like career, but by 1963 he already had a lot of years as a wild flamethrower behind him.

-- MWE
   21. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 11, 2011 at 01:17 AM (#3897566)
He had some pop in his bat and hit 20 home runs in 1964 (playing half his games at Comiskey Park), undoubtedly his best season.

It ranks just behind 1960, as I see it, although the OPS+ is higher for 1964. I think people underrate how difficult it was to hit for power at Memorial Stadium in the early days, and I think the AL wasn't as strong in 1964 as in 1960. They're definitely close.

-- MWE
   22. Rob_Wood Posted: August 11, 2011 at 01:32 AM (#3897586)
I too really appreciate Mike's contributions to the project(s). For what it is worth, according to BB-Ref, Hansen had 7.4 WAR in 1964 and 4.1 WAR in 1960.
   23. bjhanke Posted: August 11, 2011 at 09:13 AM (#3897819)
RE: comments #2 and #3 - When there is/are only one or two top players at a position, I tend to give a bit of a bonus, as opposed to when there is a cluster of top players at a spot, like 3B this year. The reason is that the one or two really dominant players give their teams a serious advantage over everybody that, I think, is not completely reflected in the standard concept of Replacement Rate. So, last year, I gave a bonus to Mathews and Groat, and the bonus was part of why I was the only guy who voted for Junior Gilliam: He dominated second base. If you look at comment #8, Radatz has a very large lead over the next best reliever. That means, to me, that he would be harder to replace than just the WAR alone suggest. Last year, the guy who really stood out was Mathews; this year, there are 3 good 3B: Allen, Santo and Brooks. I don't know if anyone else thinks this way, and the bonuses involved are not huge, but I do give them. - Brock Hanke
   24. Mr Dashwood Posted: August 11, 2011 at 01:06 PM (#3897861)
Looking at top AL pitchers by WAR, Dean Chance has as big a lead over #2 (Horlen) as Koufax had over Marichal/Ellsworth in 1963 under my system. The 1963 NLers were in raw terms about a win better, though.
   25. bjhanke Posted: August 11, 2011 at 02:03 PM (#3897908)
RE: #5. I'm a bit surprised. Menke spent about a decade getting mentioned as a possible All-Star player, especially in those years where he was hitting some homers. He only made 2 AS games, but always seemed to be in the chase. Hansen I mainly remember as "the shortstop who could hit for significant, if not serious, power. Then his career collapsed way too fast. - Brock
   26. DL from MN Posted: August 11, 2011 at 04:06 PM (#3898013)
Denis Menke was pretty much forgotten by 1982 when I started following baseball.
   27. Rob_Wood Posted: August 11, 2011 at 05:21 PM (#3898079)
Growing up in the Milwaukee area I know quite a bit about Denis Menke. He was a bonus baby of the Milwaukee Braves and could play decent SS, 2B or 3B. He had some power and hit 20+ homers -- looking it up I see he hit 20 home runs (exactly) just once in 1964. He later played with the Astros and was part of the blockbuster trade that sent Joe Morgan from Houston to Cincinnati before the 1972 season to solidify the Big Red Machine (Morgan, not Menke).

Looking up his bio I see that Menke was a major league coach for the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, and Cincinnati Reds from 1980-2000.
   28. lieiam Posted: August 11, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#3898224)
I had already gathered some data (from 5 of the 7 uber-stats I use) so here is my very preliminary ballot [no league adjustment or catcher bonus has been appiled either].

1-willie mays
2-dick allen
3-dean chance
4-ron santo
5-brooks robinson
6-frank robinson
7-mickey mantle
8-elston howard
9-hank aaron
10-don drysdale
11-boog powell
12-larry jackson
13-sandy koufax
14-ron hansen
15-roberto clemente
16-juan marichal
17-whitey ford
18-denis menke
19-bill freehan
20-bob gibson
   29. DanG Posted: August 11, 2011 at 07:50 PM (#3898230)
Other minor matters.

23-year-old rookie Luis Tiant had an excellent year. Debuting on July 19 with a 4-hit shutout of the Yankees, he went on to post a 10-4 record with an ERA+ of 127. His 3.5 pitching WAR was 9th best in the AL.

What you don't see at first glance is how Luis was nuking the PCL for the first half of the season. He went 15-1, 2.04, completed 13 of 15 GS, had a 0.94 WHIP with 10.1 SO/9. Combined he was 25-5 for the year in 264 IP.

Fellow Tribesman Sam McDowell also came of age in 1964. Brought up on May 31, he went 11-6 with an ERA+ of 133. His 4.6 pitching WAR was 4th best in the AL and he led the AL with 9.2 SO/9.

Like Tiant, Sudden Sam spent the first part of the year toying with PCL batters. He went 8-0, 1.18 with 5 shutouts in 9 GS and had a 0.76 WHIP with 12.1 SO/9.

Mel Stottlemyre was perhaps the most reknowned rookie pitcher of 1964. Debuting on August 12 he immediately posted impressive wins over the Yank's chief rivals, Chicago and Baltimore. He went 9-3 with an ERA+ of 177. This was preceded by Mel leading IL starters in ERA with 1.42 while going 13-3.

In the World Series, Stottlemyre had a complete game victory in game 2. He pitched just as well in game 5, as the Yanks lost in extra innings. Starting game 7 on two days rest he finally hit the wall, lasting only 4 innings.
   30. OCF Posted: August 12, 2011 at 03:56 AM (#3898497)
I'd previously said that by RA+ equivalent record, McDowell was 12-7 in the majors. I went back and figured Tiant at 9-5 (but a bad hitter) and Stottlemyre at 8-3 (and a good hitter).

DanG: what kind of MLE's do you think it would be fair and appropriate to add to those totals? Do you see any possibility of bringing any of the three into contention? Doing something systematic in my system would require knowing run levels for the leagues and approximate park factors - then I'd take a league strength discount (probably by messing with the park factor), and probably an IP discount.
   31. DanG Posted: August 12, 2011 at 04:49 AM (#3898515)
knowing run levels for the leagues and approximate park factors
Yeah, that would be great to know. But lacking that I'd first look for something quick and dirty. Something like this.

We know Tiant was pitching excellent the entire year. His team had played 89 of its 164 games when he was brought up, so he was around for the last 46% of the season. Simply multiplying his MLB stats by 2.18 gives us an adjusted RA+ equivalent record of 20-11 and 7.6 pitching WAR.

For McDowell, his team had played 35 of its 164 games when he was brought up, so he was around for the last 79% of the season. Multiplying his MLB stats by 1.27 gives us an adjusted RA+ equivalent record of 15-9 and 5.8 pitching WAR.

For Stottlemyre, his team had played 112 of its 164 games when he was brought up, so he was around for the last 32% of the season. Multiplying his MLB stats by 3.15 gives us an adjusted RA+ equivalent record of 25-9 and 7.9 pitching WAR. This overstates his performance, because he was only a starting pitcher for 17 of the 30 games he pitched in the minors. Adjusting for this makes his record more like an RA+ equivalent record of 21-8 and 6.8 pitching WAR.

Tiant looks like the best candidate of these three to be ranked.
   32. bjhanke Posted: August 12, 2011 at 05:01 AM (#3898519)
DL - Oh. 1982. That changes everything. You are completely correct. There was no reason for you to have ever heard the name "Dennis Menke". There was no way he was good enough to have a reputation last that long. - Brock
   33. bjhanke Posted: August 12, 2011 at 05:29 AM (#3898528)
I have a couple of stories/analyses about 1964 that I thought would be fun for the group. Unfortunately, I'm in Chicago at the comic con, and fighting a cold, so I may take a couple of days to get through this, but I have time and energy now, so here's the first one: For you Cubs fans (and as a Cardinal fan myself), the Cubs did NOT make a horrific trade when they moved Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. This has been a long-standing myth, but if you look at Brock's skills and the Cubs of 1963/64, you can see why it happened and why it looked decent at the time.

Essentially, the Cubs spent 1963 trying to find a spot for Lou to play. They tried center, but although he had the speed, Lou was no CF. He actually ended up as the "starter" in RIGHT field in 1963, but didn't have anything like the arm for that. He was a lefty, so second, short, third and catcher were out. That left LF and 1B.

Billy Williams
Ernie Banks, still only 32

So what they had was a good-looking 24-year-old kid who might someday hit, but who hadn't really hit yet, and who wasn't going to get the chance to establish himself in Chicago. That is, they had a gamble to trade, and they could not expect to get anything more than a gamble in return. Ernie Broglio had been a VERY good pitcher in VERY recent years. His arm had gone south, but all that meant was that he, too, was a gamble. There was an age difference, to be sure, but Broglio HAD established himself, while Brock was still just a kid with potential. If you were to see a trade like that tomorrow, you would not think that the team trading the kid was crazy. True, the trade proved to be a disaster, but at the time, I doubt that many people thought it was highway robbery.

There's also one more item to throw in there. Stan Musial, a class act to the end, had told the Cards that 1963 was going to be his last year. That had left GM Bing Devine with a whole year to send his scouts out to look for left fielders who might be available in a trade. As most of you know, I got to know Bing late in life, and he did say that having all that time allowed him to make a very thorough list of LF prospects. He knew exactly who Lou Brock was and what his potential was. He knew that the Cubs had no place to play him. He knew that he did have left field available. He knew that the Cubs, who weren't a bad team at the time, were looking to upgrade their pitching short-term. And he knew that he had a veteran pitching arm gamble of just about the same size as Lou Brock was as a LF gamble. So if you Cubbie fans want to blame anyone, blame Stan. But at the time, it just wasn't a bad deal. It was a trade of gambles, and one worked out and the other did not.

And the worst trade between the two teams still is the Cards, in 1903, trading Three-Finger Brown to the Cubs for approximately nothing.

- Brock
   34. bjhanke Posted: August 12, 2011 at 05:34 AM (#3898531)
I take back "approximately nothing." Jack Taylor was better than that. It's still a worse trade.
   35. sunnyday2 Posted: August 12, 2011 at 11:16 AM (#3898561)

1. Mays-still the one
2. Allen
3. B. Robby
4. K. Boyer--MVP on a world championship team, did WS and WARP miss this one or did the BBWAA miss it?
5. Mantle--WS has him #4, WARP nowhere
6. Santo
7. F. Robinson
8. Callison--I thought he had a better year than in 1963, WARP does not agree
9. E. Howard--WARP blows it 2 years running on Ellie
10. Dean Chance--out of nowhere

11. Aaron
12. Bill White
13. Ron Hansen
14. Torre
15. Ward
16. Oliva
17. Clemente
19. Fregosi
20. Drysdale

21. Powell
22. Killebrew
23. W, Davis
24. Koufax
25. B. Williams
   36. DL from MN Posted: August 12, 2011 at 01:33 PM (#3898584)
Yeah, my earliest Twins memories are in Metrodome. I never saw Met Stadium.
   37. Misirlou cut his hair and moved to Rome Posted: August 12, 2011 at 01:52 PM (#3898594)
4. K. Boyer--MVP on a world championship team, did WS and WARP miss this one or did the BBWAA miss it?

From the mid 50's till the mid 90's, RBI leader on a first place team = MVP. Something like 19 of 20 who fit that criteria won. The only exception was George Foster in 1976, who finished a close second to one of the greatest seasons of all time. Most were deserving, or at least reasonable choices. Some, like Boyer, were head scratchers.
   38. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 12, 2011 at 01:54 PM (#3898597)
MVP on a world championship team, did WS and WARP miss this one or did the BBWAA miss it?

The BBWAA did, although they very likely would have missed it in any case. As I said earlier, Callison would have won the MVP going away had the Phillies won, and Frank Robinson would very likely have won it had the Reds won.

Here's a thought for you alternate universe types: If the Reds win the 1964 pennant and F. Robby is the MVP for the second time in four years, does Bill DeWitt trade him a year later?

-- MWE
   39. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 12, 2011 at 02:04 PM (#3898602)
If you read Ball Four (and if you haven't you should), you would have been aware of Menke; Bouton's first impressions of Houston after he was traded to the Astros included a reference to the DP combination of Menke and Morgan as "simply great".

Menke was part of the Morgan deal following a terrible year at age 30 in 1971. With the Reds he played third (Rose was still in the outfield at this stage of his career), with Perez moving to first base, but by 1973 it was pretty clear he was in the decline phase of his career, and Dan Driessen wound up platooning with him by the end of the season.

-- MWE
   40. DL from MN Posted: August 12, 2011 at 03:10 PM (#3898639)
I had forgotten that line from Ball Four. The list of what I have forgotten is long.
   41. OCF Posted: August 12, 2011 at 03:55 PM (#3898679)
...but Broglio HAD established himself, ...

As I've put it before: Broglio was the exact same age as Bob Gibson, and through 1963, had had as good a career as Gibson. Of course, possibly the most unexpected thing about the Broglio/Gibson comparison was how good Gibson was after that. Gibson's actual future was not something you should have bet on.

Why is the Brock/Broglio trade so notorious? One reason is that the payoff was immediate. Broglio's arm troubles manifested themselves right away, and he never recovered. While Brock, who had never looked like a high average hitter, suddenly hit .350+ for the rest of the season.

I go over this in more detail in my early comments on the Brock HoM thread. One key is that both parts of Brock's 1964 season were BABIP flukes, in opposite directions. An abnormally low BABIP for the Cub part of his season, which disguised the fact that he was improving as a hitter over his previous seasons, followed by an abnormally high BABIP for the Cardinal part of his season. He never could have been a .350 hitter for real - it was just that season's fluke.

And, as bjhanke points out, by then Brock was a 24/25 year old with several major league seasons under his belt and with a known list of things he couldn't do (such as play CF). More often than not, with a player like that, what you see is what you get - there may be no reason to bank on any improvement at all. At the moment of the trade, asserting that Brock would get 3000 hits would have sounded absurd.
   42. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 12, 2011 at 04:24 PM (#3898705)
Why is the Brock/Broglio trade so notorious? One reason is that the payoff was immediate.

Indeed, Brock was hitting .251/.300/.340 for the Cubs (after having hit .263/.319/.412 and .258/.300/.382, he was an athletic player who seemed to be stagnating- or even regressing), he then hit .348/.387/.527 for the Cardinals, AND he ht .300 with a HR and 5 ribbies in the World Series

At the time of the trade Broglio had a losing record, but a 3.50 ERA, he put up a 4.04 for the Cubs (ERA+ of 92) back the n people looked at ERAs over 5.00 the way we now would look at one over 5.00. Basically not only had Broglio had a better career than Brock prior to the trade- he had been better THAT year prior to the trade

My guess is that the day the trade was announced the majority of Cardinals' fans were horrified.
   43. DL from MN Posted: August 12, 2011 at 07:18 PM (#3898787)
I'll be away from the internet until 8/22. Gone fishing.
   44. Mike Emeigh Posted: August 12, 2011 at 07:39 PM (#3898793)
My guess is that the day the trade was announced the majority of Cardinals' fans were horrified.

Not horrified, but not happy, either. The most common reaction was that the Cardinals didn't get enough for Broglio. Brock's talent was recognized, but always in the sense of "unrealized potential", and Spring and Toth were widely recognized as filler.

-- MWE
   45. bjhanke Posted: August 13, 2011 at 03:16 AM (#3899076)
Mike's memory of STL reaction to the trade is much the same as mine, for the first month. By the time Brock had played a month in STL, no one could remember how to spell "Broglio."
   46. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: August 15, 2011 at 12:29 PM (#3900132)
Any chance of team AFR this time around Alex King?
   47. DanG Posted: August 15, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#3900263)
WARP leaders from Baseball Prospectus

1964              WARP1  WARP3
Willie    Mays     10.8   10.8
Dean    Chance     10.8    9.3
Ron    Santo        9.9   10.0
Don    Drysdale    10.1    9.5
Dick    Allen       9.1    9.1
Dick    Radatz      9.2    8.1
Hank    Aaron       8.2    8.1
Sandy    Koufax     8.0    7.6
Frank    Robinson   7.7    7.7
Denis    Menke      7.5    7.6
Larry    Jackson    7.8    7.2
Brooks    Robinson  7.9    6.3
Chris    Short      7.3    6.9
Roberto   Clemente  7.0    6.9
Elston    Howard    7.3    6.5
Juan    Marichal    7.0    6.5
Bob    Veale        7.0    6.5
Whitey    Ford      7.3    5.8
Bob    Allison      7.0    5.6
Bob    Gibson       6.5    6.0
Ken    Boyer        6.2    6.3
Ron    Hansen       6.8    5.5
Bob    Bruce        6.3    5.9
Jim    Fregosi      6.7    5.4
Joe    Torre        6.0    6.0
Willie    Davis     5.9    5.9
Joe    Horlen       6.5    5.1
Jim Ray    Hart     5.8    5.8
Mickey    Mantle    6.4    5.1
Jim    Bunning      6.0    5.5
Johnny   Callison   5.8    5.7
Jim    O
'Toole      5.9    5.5
Boog    Powell      6.3    5.1 
   48. Alex King Posted: August 15, 2011 at 08:27 PM (#3900563)

Yes. Do you want it for all teams or just for nearly ballot-worthy pitchers?
   49. Qufini Posted: August 16, 2011 at 01:52 AM (#3900818)
1964 Prelim

1. Willie Mays, CF
2. Ron Santo, 3B
3. Dean Chance, P
4. Dick Allen, 3B
5. Don Drysdale, P

6. Brooks Robinson, 3B
7. Frank Robinson, RF
8. Elston Howard, C
9. Tony Oliva, RF
10. Bob Allison, 1B

11. Sandy Koufax, P
12. Jim Fregosi, SS
13. Mickey Mantle, CF
14. Whitey Ford, P
15. Boog Powell, 1B
   50. DanG Posted: August 16, 2011 at 05:04 AM (#3900994)
The Sporting News all-star teams voted on after the season

1b - Dick Stuart
2b - Bobby Richardson
ss - Jim Fregosi
3b - Brooks Robinson
of - Harmon Killebrew
of - Mickey Mantle
of - Tony Oliva
c - Elston Howard
p - Dean Chance
p - Gary Peters

1b - Bill White
2b - Ron Hunt
ss - Dick Groat
3b - Ken Boyer
of - Billy Williams
of - Willie Mays
of - Roberto Clemente
c - Joe Torre
p - Sandy Koufax
p - Jim Bunning
   51. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: August 16, 2011 at 12:41 PM (#3901079)
All teams would be grrreat so I could plug it into my spreadsheet.
   52. Rob_Wood Posted: August 18, 2011 at 10:51 PM (#3903423)
My prelim ballot. My rankings reflect that the NL is by far the stronger league and serious consideration of WPA figures (situational dependent stats).

1. Willie Mays - led league with 607 SLG, 172 OPS+, 6.2 WPA (and a whopping 7.8 WPA/LI)
2. Dick Allen - phenomenal rookie season with infamous 64 Phils, scored league leading 125 runs
3. Ron Santo - led NL with 398 OBA, great 5.8 WPA (and 6.1 WPA/LI)
4. Brooks Robinson - led AL with 118 RBI, truly outstanding season (317 AVG, 521 SLG)
5. Frank Robinson - 6.0 WPA (5.4 WPA/LI)

6. Dean Chance - led AL with 20 wins, 1.65 ERA, 278 IP, 15 CG, 11 shutouts, and 198 ERA+
7. Hank Aaron - 328 AVG, 514 SLG, still a very good outfielder
8. Mickey Mantle - led AL with 423 OBA, 178 OPS+, and 6.5 WPA (only played 143 games, 11 as PH)
9. Roberto Clemente - led NL with 211 hits and 339 AVG (with 4.1 WPA)
10. Sandy Koufax - 19-5 with NL leading 1.74 ERA (188 ERA+) when season ended on basepaths in mid-August

11. Ken Boyer - led NL with 119 RBI
12. Don Drysdale - led NL with 321 IP, only 18-16 (Dodgers were only 19-21 in his 40 starts)
13. Boog Powell - led AL with 606 SLG (great 5.8 WPA and 6.2 WPA/LI)
14. Jim Fregosi - only played 147 games or would be higher (I could be way low here)
15. Willie Davis - great CF defensive season

16. Ron Hansen - stellar defensive season with 20 HR for White Sox (Comiskey Park)
17. Denis Menke - solid season as SS for Milwaukee Braves
18. Juan Marichal - 21-8 with league leading 22 CG (144 ERA+)
19. Bob Allison - underrated star of the 1960s (4.4 WPA/LI)
20. Elston Howard - 313 AVG and 455 SLG

21. Chris Short - 2.20 ERA with 64 Phils (only 221 IP since he didn't join rotation until mid-May)
22. Tony Oliva - led AL with 323 AVG, 217 hits, 109 runs, 43 doubles
23. Pete Ward - his best season in an injury-plagued career
24. Rico Carty - young Braves slugger (5.2 WPA)
25. Joe Torre - split catching and first base for the Braves
   53. ronw Posted: August 19, 2011 at 02:57 AM (#3903624)
1b - Dick Stuart

Awesome. Dr. Strangeglove tore up the Monster, having won the RBI crown in 1963 and finished 2nd in 1964. Even with a .279 .320 .491 in 651 PA, he only managed a 0.1 WAR. Why? His RF/G was an abysmal 8.15 in a 9.41 per game league. On the positive side, this was his last of seven consecutive years leading the league's first baseman in errors.

Here is the weird thing. Strangeglove accumulated his 0.1 WAR, which was exactly the same WAR as Harry Bright, who played 4 games for the Yanks that year, going 1-5 with a walk and a strikeout, no runs, no rbi. Ratings like this make me scratch my head a bit. Stuart's glove was THAT bad as to offset his 73 runs, 27 doubles, 33 HR, and 114 rbi? I know, he had only 37 walks, and played in a hitter's park in Fenway, but something seems wrong when a guy like Bright has the same WAR as Dick Stuart for the season.
   54. ronw Posted: August 19, 2011 at 09:18 PM (#3904340)
Prelim for '64

1. Dick Allen
2. Willie Mays
3. Ron Santo
4. Mickey Mantle
5. Dean Chance
6. Frank Robinson
7. Brooks Robinson
8. Hank Aaron
9. Elston Howard
10. Don Drysdale or Dick Radatz
   55. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 19, 2011 at 09:48 PM (#3904374)
Stuart's glove was THAT bad as to offset his 73 runs, 27 doubles, 33 HR, and 114 rbi?

-1 baserunning
-3 reaching on errors
-2 GDP
-10 fielding
-10 positional adjustment (he was a 1b afterall)

In 1964 the median starting 1b had an OPS+ of 114
In 1964 the average 1b (mean average all 1Bs) had an OPS+ of 109

Dr. Strangelove had an OPS+ of 118, AND he was BAD at everything that doesn't go into OPS+
   56. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: August 19, 2011 at 09:57 PM (#3904383)
More on Dick Stuart, I remember reading once how Stuart claimed that after hitting 66 HRs one year in the minors the team didn't want to talk abut it- they raved about someone who'd hit 30 somewhere less, I think it was Bill Jame swho noted that when people look at a performance that looks too good- just too far beyond "reasonable" they tend to completely disregard it rather than merely discount.

Anyway, Stuart's Lincoln team had 208 Homers, 931 runs scored in 141 games, his team gave up "just" 5.26 runs per game (league best pitching)- so there was a ton of air there to be sure- but Stuart still had the best slugging % in the league by a pretty healthy margin

Anyway, I look at Stuart's BBREF page, look at his OPS+ numbers, then look at his k/bb and fielding etc... and
hey he was pretty much the functional equivalent of Dave Kingman.
   57. lieiam Posted: August 19, 2011 at 11:46 PM (#3904437)
Please excuse my ignorance... but I'm really confused by the various WARPs that Baseball Prospectus offers. I know in an earlier thread Dan G provided a link for me to look at WARPs but now I'm more confused than ever. One (of the 7) systems I'm using is WARP1 from Baseball Prospectus and I used the numbers Dan G provided in post 47 (above) and plugged them into my spreadsheet. I just recently went to Baseball Prospectus to get numbers from some other players I wanted for 1964 and realized that the WARP that comes up is not WARP 1 (nor is it WARP 3... so... WARP 2?).

So I guess I have two specific questions:
1) is it possible for a non subscriber to get WARP 1 numbers from Baseball Prospectus? And if so, how? [okay, that's technically two questions in itself... humor me please].
2) what is the difference of their various WARPs? If I remember correctly a historical timeline adjustment comes into play somewhere...

   58. Rob_Wood Posted: August 21, 2011 at 02:33 AM (#3905148)
FYI: I was curious so I looked up Jim Fregosi's home/road splits for 1964. He definitely hit significantly better on the road (as in 1963 too) so maybe his massive (team) park effect "boost" in WAR may be entirely warranted.

Also, by the way, he hit 3rd in the order for most of the year. He had an even greater season going, but slumped in August-September hitting only .215 for his last 54 games.

I will move him up in my final ballot, but not sure if he will crack the top 10. I can be swayed by arguments by the other voters' opinions, so feel free to specifically chime in on Fregosi.

Thanks much.
   59. bjhanke Posted: August 22, 2011 at 03:18 PM (#3905934)
BB-Ref says that Fregosi had the most WAR of any SS in the game, and it's 8.1, which is a good number. But Froggy does not dominate the AL competition. Ron Hansen is less than one WAR behind him, and there are others reasonably close. A better bet might be to look at Denis Menke. He has fewer WAR than Froggy (6.7), but he really does dominate his league, leading the #2 guy by something like 3.4 WAR, which is a huge gap. It depends on how you see WAR working, relative to standing within the league/position. - Brock Hanke
   60. Qufini Posted: August 23, 2011 at 08:38 PM (#3907131)
Loved Joe Posnanski's article about preferring Most Productive Player over the vagaries of debating Most 'Valuable' Player. I admire the consistency of HoM/MMP, but I wish we had thought of productive over meritorious as well.
   61. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 23, 2011 at 11:07 PM (#3907245)
Loved Joe Posnanski's article about preferring Most Productive Player over the vagaries of debating Most 'Valuable' Player. I admire the consistency of HoM/MMP, but I wish we had thought of productive over meritorious as well.

The Hall of Production would have sounded pretty crappy, though. ;-)
   62. Qufini Posted: August 23, 2011 at 11:13 PM (#3907248)
   63. lieiam Posted: August 24, 2011 at 04:36 AM (#3907609)
I would like to nominate the banana to the Hall Of Produce.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 24, 2011 at 10:40 AM (#3907646)
I would like to nominate the banana to the Hall Of Produce.

   65. DL from MN Posted: August 26, 2011 at 02:44 PM (#3909529)
Defense matters a LOT ranking the top 5. I'd love to see the breakdowns of the various settings.
   66. Al Peterson Posted: August 30, 2011 at 02:45 PM (#3912230)
1964 Prelim

1. Willie Mays
2. Dick Allen
3. Ron Santo
4. Dean Chance
5. Frank Robinson
6. Brooks Robinson
7. Elston Howard
8. Hank Aaron
9. Mickey Mantle
10. Boog Powell

11-15: Drysdale, Hansen, Clemente, Fregosi, Torre
15-20: Menke, Oliva, Boyer, Allison, Radatz

Since he won't be mentioned elsewhere how about a tip of the cap for Barney Schultz. The journeyman reliever came to the Cards beginning of August and over the remaining two months registered 14 saves. His was a major part as to why St. Louis wound up with the pennant.
   67. DL from MN Posted: August 30, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3912435)
I guess I'll repeat myself. Ranking Santo 1st only makes sense if he's the best defensive glove at 3B (which is what DanR's old numbers say). I would love to see fielding runs in the various systems for the players in the top 10-15.
   68. DL from MN Posted: August 30, 2011 at 06:32 PM (#3912480)
On Tiant, Stottlemyre and McDowell - I looked over the minor league innings for Stottlemyre (248 total) and McDowell (249 total) and I can't place them ahead of the guys just off the ballot (Ford, Marichal, Short) though they sit in that pack. However, Tiant pitched a total of 264 innings at both levels. I think I'd slot him ahead of those guys but still not quite enough to get past Koufax to the end of the ballot. I'd say he's around 17th on my list.
   69. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2011 at 03:05 PM (#3913308)
Bob Allison kind of gets screwed over by the calculators this season. He's a plus corner outfielder at this stage of his career as witnessed by his 1963 and 1965 seasons but the Twins played him at 1B for 90 games where he was merely average. 1964 was his best hitting season by a nose over 1963. He was bumped to 1B to get Killebrew and Oliva into the outfield where Jimmie Hall allowed you to have sub-par corner outfielders.

Allison actually played 28 games of CF also, where his numbers weren't as good compared to the league average. He may have lost half a win versus what his "value" would have been if he had stayed in LF for the whole season and Killebrew had played 1B.
   70. Qufini Posted: August 31, 2011 at 03:19 PM (#3913326)
Sounds like a poor job of managing. The Twins would have been better off with Killebrew at 1B and Allison in the outfield- something they figured out for the 1965 season.
   71. DL from MN Posted: August 31, 2011 at 04:08 PM (#3913378)
Actually in 1965 Don Mincher played quite a bit of 1B. Killebrew did move back to the infield. Sam Mele managed both seasons.
   72. lieiam Posted: August 31, 2011 at 04:15 PM (#3913386)
A couple things (that would help me finish off my ballot):

1- Dan R.- any chance of getting your updated pitcher numbers for this year?
2- Re: baseball prospectus WARP- [please see my comment #57 for more details of what I'm asking for but
a) is it possible for a non subscriber to access WARP1 on their site?
b) what are the differnces in their various WARPs?
   73. DanG Posted: August 31, 2011 at 04:59 PM (#3913438)
is it possible for a non subscriber to access WARP1 on their site?
I am not a subscriber but was able to construct the list in {#47}. Doing a search for "Baseball Prospectus dt card willie mays" gives you the attached link. From there you can go to the Giants team page and get Marichal, Hart, et al. Or you can change the player name in the url to whatever player you want to see.

Somewhere on their site BPro should have a description of the WARP differences.
   74. lieiam Posted: August 31, 2011 at 11:49 PM (#3913912)
@ DanG:
That's the ticket! Sometimes it would work and sometimes it wouldn't... but eventually I managed to get the WARP1 for the 8 or so players I was looking for. And I will now try a more thorough search of their site for WARP differences.

Thanks much!
   75. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 01, 2011 at 12:23 AM (#3913988)
I'll be delighted to offer updated pitching numbers just as soon as Alex King can get me team AFR.
   76. sunnyday2 Posted: September 04, 2011 at 10:29 AM (#3916511)
Can't wait to talk about 1965. Oliva #4 Versalles #5 in prelim but frankly Versalles WAS better. And can you believe Mays #1 again. But by the time I get to a final ballot I could see talking myself into Versalles #2 and Oliva #3. Certainly Versalles has a positional advantage over B. Willams and Aaron. Koufax presents a little more of an obstacle.
   77. lieiam Posted: September 04, 2011 at 03:29 PM (#3916566)
So... Alex King, any chance you can get team AFR to Dan R in time for him to incorporate it into his ratings to create updated pitcher numbers? Right now the only piece I'm missing from finishing off my ballot is those updated pitcher numbers. And they'll probably make the difference between 2nd and 3rd as I've got Dick Allen and Dean Chance pretty damn close!
   78. bjhanke Posted: September 05, 2011 at 09:09 AM (#3916929)
Here's my prelim, without comments, because it's getting close to deadline. I was waiting for Nate's wonderful chart of megasystems, but it's not here, so I'm working with what I've got. Unless Nate or someone posts that megachart and it has revelations, this is going to be pretty close to my final, which will have comments. - Brock

1. Willie Mays
2. Richie Allen
3. Ron Santo
4. Dean Chance
5. Brooks Robinson
6. Frank Robinson
7. Jim Fregosi
8. Bob Allison
9. Denis Menke
10. Dick Radatz
   79. bjhanke Posted: September 05, 2011 at 09:23 AM (#3916931)
Here's just a comment on how the Cardinals won a pennant with no one really within hailing distance of this ballot. Here are the Cardinal starters at each position, ranked by WAR within the position within the league (because that's what's relevant to a pennant):

c - Tim Mc Carver 4th
1b - Bill White 1st (in the NL, remember)
2b - Julian Javier - 7th
3b - Ken Boyer 3rd
ss - Dick Groat 4th
lf - Lou Brock 2nd
cf - Curt Flood 3rd (led all starting CF, in both the NL and AL, in batting average and, of course, defense)
rf - Mike Shannon et al (no real starter)

So what happened, basically, was that the Cards fielded an everyday lineup that was six-deep in above-average players, and had only one real difficulty, right field. They had three pretty good starters (Gibson, Simmons, Sadecki), a very good swingman (Roger Craig, of all people), and a late-season boost at closer, and the Phillies collapsed. But it was the depth of the lineup that drove the team.
   80. lieiam Posted: September 05, 2011 at 05:52 PM (#3917074)
Here is an update to my preliminary ballot... I'm posting this here now because the election ends in a couple days and in case I'm not able to get everything I want to use to rate people this will be my final ballot (I have applied league adjustment and my usual 10% catcher bonus already). So.... IF I do not post a final ballot can this one be counted?

Anyway, this factors in the 7 I normally use (win shares, win shares above bench, baseball prospectus warp 1, dan r warp 1, fangraphs war, baseball-reference war, baseball gauge war) [oh, speaking of which: bjhanke- i'm not going to be able to post the chart like nate usually does... but are there any specific numbers you're looking for? if so please post and I can probably list them for you].

I'm hoping Alex King can get team AFR #s to Dan R for him to be able to post pitcher #s for this year; That's what I'm waiting for before I post my ballot on the final ballot thread. Anyway, this is where I'm at:

1- Willie Mays
2- Dean Chance
3- Dick Allen (practically in a tie with Dean Chance)
4- Ron Santo
5- Brooks Robinson
6- Elston Howard
7- Don Drysdale
8- Frank Robinson
9- Mickey Mantle
10-Ron Hansen

followed by:
Hank Aaron, Jim Fregosi, Boog Powell, Bill Freehan, Bob Allison
Denis Menke, Sandy Koufax, Roberto Clemente, Tony Oliva, Dick Radatz

AGAIN: If I do not post a final ballot please count this as my final ballot [I should post one.... I'm just paranoid about computer problems from when a couple months ago this one crashed].
   81. bjhanke Posted: September 06, 2011 at 08:01 AM (#3917528)
Iieiam - Thanks for the offer, but it's a bit late to ask you to do for anything like that, and besides, what Nate provided was all those ranking systems on one chart, where you didn't have to compile your own out of the various systems' lists. I don't actually know where to go to get some of the lists Nate had in his table, which means that my self-compiled chart has fewer uberstats to use. The numbers I would want would be WAR numbers or the equivalent for the system (Win Shares are not exactly WAR, but they serve the same purpose). But that's a REALLY REALLY nice offer you made me! THANKS!

Just to give an example of why a lot of different systems makes a difference, consider the chart that heads this thread, which compiles Win Shares and BB-Ref WAR only. It's ranked by WS, but if you extract the WAR list, you find out that WAR thinks that Willie Davis is the #10 player in baseball in 1964. WS thinks nothing of the sort. If you go to BB-Ref and look at Willie's numbers, what you find is 29 defensive runs in center field (or about 2.9 WAR), when people like Mays and Flood are getting just above ten. If you actually just used WS and WAR to derive your ballot, you might end up voting for Davis in at #10, especially if you trust WAR more than WS. But if you have six or so methods, you can find out quickly whether Davis' defensive number in WAR is a system fluke, or whether most systems think he was God out there for a season. As it is, I had to treat it as a system fluke, because it's incompatible with his reputation, especially compared to Mays and Flood. It's that kind of thing - every uberstat has system flukes - that makes having a chart of many systems better than one having only two or three.

But, wow! What a GREAT offer. I'm remembering your handle. I think I like you. - Brock
   82. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 06, 2011 at 02:03 PM (#3917607)
Any chance of getting team AFR, Alex King?
   83. lieiam Posted: September 06, 2011 at 03:50 PM (#3917718)
You're welcome for the offer... Which system's numbers do you not have access to? Here are the 7 I use and where I get them from:
win shares- [it's actually a different address but this one directs you to the right place]
bg war-
f war-
br war-
bp warp1- mostly by the listing dan g provides on post 47. for additional players please see his post 73 for how to access the numbers for non members of baseball prospectus.
dan r warp1- through the links on the hall of merit intro on this site.

f war does not rate pitchers this far back in time and dan r hasn't posted his updated pitcher rankings in this thread like usual because he wanted to get team AFR from Alex King before doing so... but other than that I think the links/explanations should get you the numbers you want.

If not, please post and hopefully I or someone else can help!
   84. DL from MN Posted: September 06, 2011 at 04:28 PM (#3917760)
lieiam - I can move the ballot over if you don't post by the deadline.
   85. Rob_Wood Posted: September 06, 2011 at 06:59 PM (#3917915)
Just wanted to reply here about a comment on the ballot thread regarding relative league strengths. Having lived through this era, I cannot fathom that the National League was not stronger than the American League in 1964. If Dan's (or others') methods indicate otherwise, I would be dubious to say the least.

We all know that integration occurred far wider and far faster in the NL than in the AL. And there is no way that things had "evened out" in this regard by 1964. Black stars in the NL include Mays, Aaron, FRobinson, Clemente, Allen, Gibson, Cepeda, McCovey, Pinson, Marichal, Brock, BWhite, Flood, Carty, Veale, Wills, TDavis, WDavis, Banks, and BWilliams. Black stars in the AL include EHoward and Oliva (with a few additional minor stars). Of course the quantity and quality of black stars does not tell the whole story about league strength, but it surely must be a significant factor.

Anyway, I just wanted to post this to make sure I was not losing my mind. In putting together my MMP ballots for the 1960s (and into the 1970s) I was definitely under the impression that the NL was the stronger league.
   86. Rick A. Posted: September 07, 2011 at 01:24 AM (#3918199)
I use a combination of WSAB and BR-WAR. I give a catcher's bonus and a league strength adjustment.

1964 Prelim

1. Willie Mays
2. Dick Allen
3. Dean Chance
4. Ron Santo
5. Brooks Robinson
6. Frank Robinson
7. Hank Aaron
8. Boog Powell
9. Mickey Mantle
10. Elston Howard

11-15 Jim Fregosi, Don Drysdale, Roberto Clemente, Sandy Koufax, Dick Radtaz
16-20 Denis Menke, Ron Hansen, Bill Freehan, Pete Ward, Rico Carty
   87. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: September 07, 2011 at 12:27 PM (#3918443)
Rob Wood, see my last post on the ballot thread. The NL surely was far stronger than the AL in this period. It may have had a higher forecast standard deviation, which means you need to pull in NL OPS+ scores by a certain amount to make apples-to-apples comparisons to the AL--but then you need to move them back out again to account for the higher quality of NL play.
   88. lieiam Posted: September 07, 2011 at 03:32 PM (#3918573)
Here's an update to my post on #80 in which I asked my ballot to be counted as final if I was not able to post a final ballot.
[I'm still hoping to include Dan R's pitching numbers so don't want to post this as my final ballot]. [Oh, and re: #84- thanks!]. I've completely misunderstood the LgAdj in Dan R's spreadsheet and used that as a meaure of league strength (D'oh!] and therefore here is an updated tentative final ballot:

1- willie mays
2- dick allen
3- dean chance
4- ron santo
5- brooks robinson
6- don drysdale
7- elston howard
8- frank robinson
9- hank aaron
10-mickey mantle

ron hansen, jim fregosi, denis menke, sandy doufax, roberto clemente,
boog powell, larry jackson, bill freehan, bob allison, tony oliva
   89. Rob_Wood Posted: September 07, 2011 at 05:32 PM (#3918698)
Thanks DanR for your response and for clearing up any confusion regarding league strength and your LgAdj variable.

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