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Monday, November 07, 2005

1964 Ballot

Newbies: Pee Wee Reese, Bob Lemon, Virgil Trucks, and Sal Maglie.

Returnees: Wes Ferrell, Red Ruffing, Joe Medwick, Eppa Rixey, Biz Mackey, Clark Griffith, George Van Haltren, and Cool Papa Bell.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 07, 2005 at 01:46 PM | 125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:03 PM (#1721444)
hot topics
   2. yest Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:49 PM (#1721492)
1964 ballot
Lemon and Hilton Smith make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Bob Lemon weak league keeps him down (makes my personal HoM this year)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
15. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
16. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
17. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
19. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
20. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (makes my personal HoM this year)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
32. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
33. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits
34. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice
35. Alejandro Oms the recent discussion put him here
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Pee Wee Reese he seems to me similar to Booby Wallace and he was never even close to my ballot
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers
Wes Ferrell to high a ERA
Red Ruffing is just off my ballot
   3. sunnyday2 Posted: November 07, 2005 at 02:58 PM (#1721504)
Pee Wee and Booby, what a pair!
   4. sunnyday2 Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:14 PM (#1721525)
1964--Kiner and Reese make the PHoM

1. Dobie Moore (2 last week-3-1, PHoM 1957)
2. Joe Medwick (3-4-2, PHoM 1954)
3. George Sisler (4-5-3, PHoM 1938)--top position players been around awhile

4. Tommy Bond (5-6-4, PHoM 1929)
5. Pete Browning (6-7-5, PHoM 1961)--you've been around a while?!

6. Ralph Kiner (8-9-6, PHoM 1964)--moneyball

7. Pee Wee Reese (new)--a very respectable peak and a very respectable career, a little bit of everything on the resume though he's not an all-timer on any one list; why not make it three Boys of Summer (Jacky, Campy, Peewy) in three years

8. Rube Waddell (9-10-7, PHoM 1932)
9. Jose Mendez (10-11-8, PHoM 1957)
10. Addie Joss (11-12-9)--good ol' pitcher contenders

11. Ed Williamson (12-13-10, PHoM 1924)--comps Jimmy Collins and Stan Hack

12. Willard Brown (13-14-11)--biding his time, darlin' PHoM soon (get it? think John Sebastien)

13. Dick Redding (14-15-14)--also biding his time, PHoM soon

14. Charley (Horse) Jones (15-x-12, PHoM 1921)--Edward R. Murrow shoulda done a documentary

15. Joe Gordon (x-x-13)--on my ballot six times in nine years, lurking

Dropped Out: None

Close: 16-20. Stephens, Doyle, Doerr, Trouppe, Duffy
21-25. Rixey, Keller, Cravath, Tiernan, Cicotte

Also in PHoM queue: Beckwith and Hack would be in the top 15 if eligible, and Averill and Stovey in the top 25.

Required: Ferrell #50, Ruffing #51, Mackey #49, Griffith #34, Van Haltren #77, Bell #37
   5. Daryn Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:19 PM (#1721536)
Bottomley and Cuyler must be getting excited.
   6. yest Posted: November 07, 2005 at 03:45 PM (#1721598)
Bottomley and Cuyler must be getting excited.

as of now Buck Leonard and Sherry Magee are ahead of them on my PHOM ballot
   7. TomH Posted: November 07, 2005 at 04:14 PM (#1721675)
sunny, any consideration of Mr. Lemon?
   8. ronw Posted: November 07, 2005 at 05:13 PM (#1721837)
1964 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Pete Browning I have been convinced that he was more unique than Redding, and thus deserves a higher spot. Failing to electing Pete is like failing to elect Hank Greenberg. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. When the Gladiator retired, only Brouthers, Connor, and Anson were probably better hitters.

2. Dick Redding I think he is like an Eddie Plank rather than an Eppa Rixey for career value. As a long-career flamethrower, maybe he is even a Nolan Ryan.

3. Pee Wee Reese I have no problem with him being #1, but I think the other two have a slight bit more merit and should have been elected some time ago.

4. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

5. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding.

6. Cupid Childs More 1890’s infielders please.

7. John McGraw Fielding is the reason why the huge support for Jennings has not been applied to McGraw.

8. Dobie Moore We’ve missed him.

9.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

10. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

11. Tommy Bridges Seems remarkably similar to Whitey Ford.

12. Wes Ferrell Fine pitcher peak.

13. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

14. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

15. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.


Red Ruffing – No really outstanding seasons, but a lot of good. Still, I think I would rather have Lefty Gomez. For what it is worth, I see him as behind all HOM P except Red Faber.

Joe Medwick – #16. Medwick has the highest unadjusted BWS total of any eligible save Jake Beckley (278.9).

Eppa Rixey – I’ve supported him in the past, but now I like a little more peak.

Clark Griffith – #17.

Cool Papa Bell – #19. There are a lot of good candidates, but few great ones.

Bob Lemon – I see him as virtually identical with Bucky Walters. Close but not enough.

Virgil Trucks – Fine career, but too many are ahead of him.

Sal Maglie – Needed more playing time when he finally got his shot.
   9. sunnyday2 Posted: November 07, 2005 at 06:29 PM (#1722028)
Yes, I considered Mr. Lemon. ERA+ not that special for a fairly short career. Nice in-season durability but all those wins belong as much to his teammates as to him. Sal Maglie is close to the ballot than Mr. Lemon but neither is top 25.
   10. Daryn Posted: November 07, 2005 at 07:36 PM (#1722163)
This new format for BTF is really killing the number of posts everywhere. Here goes. Medwick is 16, GVH is my only other omission. GVH was on my ballot in the teens -- now is languishing in the 30s with Duffy and Ryan, who were also on my ballot in the teens.

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

3. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.

4. Red Ruffing – fits nicely in between Rixey and Grimes – definitely better than Grimes, perhaps better than Rixey.

5. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between here and Griffith.

6. Cool Papa Bell – I have decided to move Bell up from the outfield glut to here. As flawed as they may be, I have chosen to rely, in part, on the 1952 Courier poll and more importantly the 1999 SABR poll. I know the former has its flaws but it doesn’t appear to canonize Bell (he is a 2nd team all-star there). I know the SABR poll takes into account non-playing influence, but it has Bell ahead of Charleston and Gibson, among others, and that must mean something (particularly when it accords with all the anecdotal evidence and a possible Cobb MLE of over 4000 hits).

7. Pee Wee Reese – the war credit (including an extra 450 hits and an all star appearance or two) gets him on the ballot for me. The career 99 OPS+ at a key defensive position ties him with Bell. His contemporary evaluation, measured by All Star appearances and MVP voting is impressive. Another similarity to Bell.

8. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan or Schang.

10. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

11. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate (though I guess some see Sisler that way too -- I don't). I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles.

12. Wes Ferrell – Wes was hanging around in my 20s for a decade or so. I finally realized the significance of his 100 OPS+.

13. Bob Lemon – a bit of a ringer for Ferrell. I take Ferrell’s hitting advantage over Lemon’s slight pitching advantage.

14. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

15. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. I’ve decided to slot him right behind the three short career pitching balloters, though he could just as easily be ahead of them. He is barely better than Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin. It is tough to separate the wheat from the chaff among the pitchers.
   11. sunnyday2 Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:48 PM (#1722274)
It should be obvious from the ballot, but...who is Buddy Lewis Jr? i.e. former handle-bars?

Also the 1999 SABR poll was basically a reputation check. I think we here are beyond that. No offense to SABR ;-) or anything.
   12. Adam Schafer Posted: November 07, 2005 at 08:53 PM (#1722289)
1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back
then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this
since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got
elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching
categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Wes Ferrell - Good peak, and just enough career to make me like him

3. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push
him up this high on my ballot.

4. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

5. Bob Lemon - Top 3 in wins 8 out of 9 years, top 10 in wins 9 years straight. I have a funny feeling that I'll end up liking him more than most voters.

6. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

7. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

8. Pee Wee Reese - Only this high with war credit.

9. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman.

10. Red Ruffing - Did he pitch for good teams? Absolutely. That's not his fault.

11. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a

dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

12. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

13. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

14. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

15. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

16. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away. I did decide to move him up quite a
bit, but I also felt the need to move Schang and Rixey down on my ballot after taking another look at them (yet again).

Schang, Rixey, Bresnahan and Gordon are all just off of my ballot right now. Cool Papa is around 24 or so.
   13. andrew siegel Posted: November 07, 2005 at 09:20 PM (#1722334)
Tough ballot at the top, but it is not going to get any easier:

(1) Dobie Moore (3rd)--Somewhere between Arky Vaughn and Joe Cronin but with a shorter career.

(2) George Van Haltren (4th)-- For me, career totals can make you an obvious HoMer if you reach a peak that was very good (in the 25-30 WS per season range) and hold it for a long time, but not if your peak is much lower or much less consistent. Van Haltren is the quintessential example of the former.

(3) Pee Wee Reese (new)--Very similar to GVH in value pattern. He is the last of four SS's we have whose best seasons are interchangable with Rizutto, Stephens, Sewell, Bancroft, etc., but who held that level of performance consistently. The others (Wells, Appling, and Wallace) are all in the HoM; Pee Wee slots into that group comfortably, probably somewhere between Appling and Wallace.

(4) Wes Ferrell (5th)--Leads Lemon through their top seven seasons but falls a bit behind him on my career measures as Lemon put up nine very good seasons vs. his seven. Noneththeless, I ever so slightly prefere Ferrell because his peak is a little bit higher and because the game-long-type treatments of his career that we saw earlier show him to be a little better than his numbers.

(5) Bob Lemon (new)--I have previously reported that I think the bottom third of the pitchers we have elected so far form a tight knot with very similar career patterns and total values (I am thinking of Vance, Coveleski, Caruthers, McGinity, Keefe, the unelected Ferrell, etc.). Lemon strikes me as a new member of the group, though one who reached a slightly lower peak than most of those guys but kept it up for another couple of years.

(6) Eppa Rixey (7th)--I'm a little higher on pitchers this week, so he slides up a slot.

(7) Alejandro Oms (8th)--High end was Sam Crawford; low end perhaps Bernie Williams. Numbers suggest the upper half of that range. A great across the board talent.

(8) Quincy Trouppe (15th)-- My big jumper. I was discounting him b/c/ I couldn't believe he was this good, but the evidence points to him being a forgotten great. And uncovering such forgotten players is one of the joys of this project.

(9) Red Ruffing (10th)--Again, liking the pitcher this week.

(10) Cupid Childs (6th)-- A victim of my general shift towards pitching and negro leaguers.

(11) Hugh Duffy (9th)-- Him too.

(12) George Sisler (11th)--I've got the next 10 or so guys basically even. Lots of hitters with big numbers and some gaps in their resumes.

(13) Joe Medwick (12th)--As I said.

(14) Edd Roush (13th)--Him too.

(15) Jimmy Ryan (14th)--Him three.

The next bunch are Beckley, Sewell, Kiner, Gordon, Johnson, Sewell, and Willard Brown.

Sal Maglie is much better than I would have guessed, but is not close enough to my ballot to delay my vote. He falls somewhere between 30 and 70, but will take a lot more work to firmly place.

Clark Griffith is down around 30 due to IP concerns. Mackey and Bell are in the same general vicinity as their bats don't show enough juice.
   14. OCF Posted: November 07, 2005 at 09:42 PM (#1722394)
Buddy Lewis Jr. = Daryn.

In fact, he was Daryn when he posted #10 on this thread; it looks like he changed to make a joke on the Pete Rose Jr. drug arrest thread.
   15. karlmagnus Posted: November 07, 2005 at 09:46 PM (#1722406)
Reese nowhere near as good as Stephens or Doerr, though he went on longer – better than Rizzutto, though. Lemon considerably better, somewhere below Rixey and Leever, but definitely on ballot. Maglie about 150-175% of his visible career, so below full ballot.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-3-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just above Rixey.

7. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9-8-7-9-8) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11-10-9-11-10) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.
   16. karlmagnus Posted: November 07, 2005 at 09:46 PM (#1722408)
11. (N/A) Bob Lemon 207-128, ERA+ of 119, plus he could hit with OPS+ of 82. Distinctly better than Ferrell, and deserves a year or so’s war credit, since he didn’t start till 25.

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-11-14-13-11-13-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

13. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

14. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-15) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back on ballot after a few years just off.

15. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly, so now a little below. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!


16. (N/A-10-12-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

18. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

19. Quincy Trouppe. Had been left off, now comes on. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

20. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 back up above Lazzeri and Childs. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

21. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

22. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

24. Red Ruffing. Somewhat above average pitcher, with excellent counting stats because he happened to pitch for the Evil Empire (he was lousy for the Red Sox – typical). War credit would inflate his counting stats even further, but probably to just below 300 wins as he was winding down. ERA+ only 109, but 4333 IP and 273-225.

25. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
26.Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
29. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
34. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
35. (N/A) Heinie Manush
36. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
37. Bob Elliott
38. Wes Ferrell. Not enough career.
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
45. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
46. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
47. Pee Wee Reese. OPS+ only 99, but longish career when you give him credit for war.
48. Kiki Cuyler
49. Deacon McGuire
50. Jack Quinn
51. Tony Mullane
52. Pye Traynor
53. Jim McCormick
54. Dick Redding
55. Joe Judge
56. Edd Roush
57. Spotswood Poles.
58. Larry Doyle
59. Roger Bresnahan.
60. Wayte Hoyt.
61. Joe Gordon.
62. Harry Hooper.
63. Jules Thomas.
64. Wilbur Cooper
65. Bruce Petway.
66. Jack Clements
67. Bill Monroe
68. Jose Mendez
69. Herb Pennock
70. Chief Bender
71. Ed Konetchy
72. Jesse Tannehill
73. Bobby Veach
74. Lave Cross
75. Tommy Leach.
76. Tom York
   17. Jim Sp Posted: November 07, 2005 at 11:30 PM (#1722602)
Welcome PeeWee Reese and Biz Mackey to my PHoM. Lemon and Maglie just outside the top 50. Virgil Trucks had a nice career, but not close to the ballot.

1)Reese--Well above Gordon, etc.
2)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
3)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
4)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
5)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
6)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
7)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
10)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too.
11)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.
14)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
15)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.

Ferrell—one of the top 100 pitchers of all time, but not on my ballot currently.
Griffith In my PHoM but off the ballot at #29.
Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
   18. Jeff M Posted: November 08, 2005 at 12:31 AM (#1722653)
Decided to vote a little early to avoid the Sunday/Monday panic. Hope everyone has a pleasant week.

1964 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

2. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 25.5 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

3. Reese, Pee Wee – I give him full war credit. He ranks a little lower in Warp than WS. Was never a great hitter, but a good defensive shortstop who led a team that consistently won pennants.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

6. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

7. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

8. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

9. Ferrell, Wes – Wish he had pitched longer, because he would be a shoo-in. But, he was a peak performer anyway, and could swing the bat.

10. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

11. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

12. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

13. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

14. Lemon, Bob – Not a lot different than Wes Ferrell, but Ferrell does a little better in my adjusted WARP and WS, as well as in Linear Weights, taking into account run support. The rankings from #5 down are very tight, so even the slight difference puts him four spots lower than Ferrell.

15. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

Required Disclosure(s):

Ruffing, Red – Everything he did was extremely dependent on the fact he played for the great Yankee teams: compare his stats in Boston and NY. He got a small boost from the defense, a big boost from run support (see Chris’ RSI) and a big boost from those .91 Yankee park factors. A solid but unspectacular pitcher on the right team in the right park at the right time.

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he is better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that is a pre-requisite to the HoM.

Griffith, Clark – Was on my ballot last year, but the newcomers pushed him off. Prefer him strongly to Rixey, and vociferously to Ruffing.

Van Haltren, George – He’s #31 in my system.

Bell, Cool Papa -- Legend overstates his case. He’s #43 in my system. Has only four top 5 votes and fourteen top 10 votes, among 49 voters.
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 08, 2005 at 12:45 AM (#1722668)
Reese nowhere near as good as Stephens or Doerr,

Would you at least acknowledge that he was better than Chuck Schilling? ;-)
   20. yest Posted: November 08, 2005 at 05:58 AM (#1723039)
karl in the futre can you put a space in your voting history so the thread wouldn't expand to far
   21. Rusty Priske Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:36 PM (#1723276)
PHoM: Pee Wee Reese & Monte Irvin

1. Red Ruffing (3,3,1)

He's been on the bubble for induction for a while...I imagine hw will miss again this year.

2. George Van Haltren (2,4,3)

I KNOW he will miss. Sigh.

3. Willard Brown (6,5,4)

As underrated as GVH.

4. Eppa Rixey (4,6,6)
5. Joe Medwick (5,7,2)
6. Jake Beckley (8,8,5)

Wondering if their opportunity has passed...

7. Cool Papa Bell (9,10,7)

He ebbs and flows...

8. Biz Mackey (10,9,8)
9. Mickey Welch (7,11,9)

10. Pee Wee Reese (new)

Not the slam dunk that some people have him as, but he IS deserving and I shed no tears as he gets in.

11. Dobie Moore (12,14,12)
12. George Sisler (15,13,10)

I can't see him as higher.

13. Hugh Duffy (14,15,13)
14. Tommy Leach (13,12,11)
15. Edd Roush (x,x,14)

Sneaks back on the ballot.

16-20. Rice, Ryan, Childs, Griffith, Powell
21-25. Trouppe, H. Smith, Streeter, White, Strong
26-30. Gleason, Redding, Sewell, Doerr, Doyle
   22. favre Posted: November 08, 2005 at 01:59 PM (#1723298)
1.Alejandro Oms
2.Eppa Rixey

Well, this should keep my similarity score down for a while. Oms is the best outfielder on the board. Better hitter than Bell or Van Haltren, with more career and considerably more defensive value than Medwick, Kiner, or Cravath. The MLE’s don’t give Oms any huge years with the bat, but Chris has said that the translations might suppress peak a bit. Very similar to Earl Averill.

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell, are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

3.Jake Beckley
4.Wally Schang

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher.

5.Rube Waddell
6.Jose Mendez
7.Dobie Moore

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

It’s become pretty clear to me that Moore is the best shortstop available. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot three decades ago.

8.Cool Papa Bell
9. Tommy Leach
10. Pee Wee Reese

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Looking back over the years, I’m surprised by how many times I’ve been able to write that. Good hitting, great defense at *two* key positions.

Bell’s projections put him at near 400 WS and 3700 hits. I think we missed the boat on him. I know Max Carey was elected on a strange ballot, but why Carey, and not Bell?

Reese is a good example of a player who did lots of things well, rather than one thing really well. He was very good with the glove, but he wasn’t Ozzie Smith, or even Rabbit Maranville; he could get on base, but he wasn’t Luke Appling; he could steal a base, but he wasn’t Luis Aparicio. Yet his collection of skills earned him well over 350 career WS with war credit. Comparable to Bobby Wallace, probably a little better.

11. Joe Gordon
12. Wes Ferrell
13. Ned Williamson
14.Bobby Doerr
15.Biz Mackey

Gordon and Doerr were very similar players: great D at 2nd, could hit a little. Mackey was similar player to Gordon and Doerr. I had kept Ferrell off the ballot for years, but I finally realized its hard to include Waddell, Mendez, and Newhouser on a ballot without finding a place for Wes somewhere.

Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available seventy years after he retired: his main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value.

16. Roger Bresnahan
17. Bob Lemon

Bresnahan is back on my radar screen after a long absence, based on the discussions on the Campanella thread. He actually had a slightly better prime than Schang, but Wally had a better career as a catcher. Lemon’s stats are similar to Ferrell’s, but Ferrell had a higher peak, played for worse teams, and pitched in an era with much higher offenses. I do think Lemon is more impressive in context of his era than Clark Griffith.

18.George Sisler
19.Ralph Kiner
20.Gavvy Cravath

These three guys have the same resume: huge peak seasons with short careers that just keep them just off the ballot for now. Kiner’s seasons of 184, 184, and 173 OPS+ really impress me, but not enough to vote for him yet.

21.Joe Medwick
22.Clark Griffith

Medwick is another OF with a relatively short career, but doesn’t have the peak of the guys in front of him. Griffith was a mainstay on my ballot for years, but in my re-evaluation I decided he doesn’t have the peak or the career of the pitchers in front of him.

23-25: Edd Roush, Cupid Childs, Bob Elliott
26-30: Larry Doyle, Dick Redding, Pete Browning, Mike Tiernan, Bob Johnson
31-35: Vic Willis, George Van Haltren, Burleigh Grimes, Red Ruffing, Willard Brown

I think Rixey significnantly better than Ruffing: he pitched for more innings on worse teams with a better ERA+, and that does not take account the time he missed for WWI. Was the jump in Ruffing’s effectiveness from Boston to New York due at least in part to a better defense?

I am rethinking Van Haltren, now that Reese is on my ballot; he’s another did-many-things-well type of player. Still, Oms was a better hitter and fielder; Van Haltren was a better pitcher, but 700 innings with a 96 ERA+ just doesn’t impress me much.
   23. sunnyday2 Posted: November 08, 2005 at 02:48 PM (#1723343)
5.Rube Waddell
6.Jose Mendez
7.Dobie Moore

Three cheers for this ballot!

13. Ned Williamson

Er, four.
   24. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 08, 2005 at 05:56 PM (#1723749)
I should soon be able to do an entire ballot, but right now I am busy with school work so I only have time to do a top 15 and small comments.

1964 ballot

Reese and Duffy make my PHOM

1. Pee Wee Reese - His value pattern isn't dissimilar from that of Willie Wells, but I rank him about Willie. I am usually a solid peak voter but I cant' ignore the more than 400 WS with a nice 5-7 year peak.

2. Wes Ferrell - Great peak with a 100 OPS+

3. Cupid Childs - Best 2B of the 19th century

4. Joe Medwick - I believe WS has it right, a great three year peak and a nice 10 year prime.

5. Hugh Duffy - Best of the 1890's troika of CFers

6. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era

7. Bob Lemon - Slightly below Redding right now, value similar to Ferrell's though

8. Charlie Keller - Monster peak with war credit

9. Bucky Walters - Like Lemon or Ferrel but without the bat.

10. Dobie Moore - The Black Hughie Jennings

11. Ralph Kiner - Lots of HR's and walks

12. Clark Griffith - easily the best 19th century pitcher we have yet to elect, not even close.

13. Quincey Trouppe - Nice peak based on his in season durability.

14. Joe Gordon - Slightly above Doerr

15. Pete Browning - Monster hitter, but without the competition of a Keller, Medwick, or Kiner.

Eppa Rixey and GVH are just off my ballot. Both have been in my top 10 previously and shoudl return to my ballot at some point. I am not against either's induction.

Mackey and Bell are both in the low 30's based on a lack of peak. At this point I doubt if they will ever appear on my ballot.

Ruffing is even further down, I just see nothing special about him, should definitely wait until after Rixey to get in.


Maglie is in my top 50 but I dont' see anything that really seperates him from the pack.
   25. SWW Posted: November 08, 2005 at 06:59 PM (#1723859)
So. There it is. The World Champion Chicago White Sox. What do you know about that.

<u>1964 Ballot</u>
1)Harold Henry Reese – “Pee Wee”
For some reason, I always had it in my head that shortstops were all about defense, and that any offense you got out of them was gravy. If I’ve learned anything from this project, it’s that this notion was wrong, which is why we elect shortstops so often. 78th on Maury Allen Top 100.
2)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Glanced at the numbers again, considering the overwhelming support for Ferrell. Still don’t agree with you all. Top 10 most similar pitchers: Red Faber, Red Ruffing, Ted Lyons, Tony Mullane, Gus Weyhing, Dennis Martinez, Eppa Rixey, Sam Jones, Vic Willis, and Tom Glavine. That’s good company. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
4)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Still here. Dang. Medwick continues a run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely, like a certain shortstop I’ll discuss later. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)Charles Herbert Ruffing – “Red”
I’m willing to accept the notion that he performed poorly with Boston because they used him so poorly. Factoring in the war years and his high totals in spite of it, I’m content to rank him this high. 84th on Maury Allen Top 100.
7) Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
8)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Still sticking with my man Sam, because I recognize how remarkable his career numbers are given his late start, and because he spent so much of his career as the best everyday player on a very bad team. Check the Win Shares, and it’s consistently Walter Johnson and Sam Rice as the Senators’ best. Think if he’d gotten a re-invention like Ruffing. A great one.
9)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
10)Edd J Roush
He figures to be pretty lonely without Averill to shadow. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
11)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
12) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
My ballot should demonstrate that I’m determined not to punish players for consistency over time. That’s why he’s still hanging on to my ballot. But examining his career, I’m very disturbed by the fact that Beckley not only didn’t have any kind of a peak in his league, but that he never even stood out on his own team. He remains the one big problem child in my career-oriented voting pattern.
13)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Still hanging on until a flood of new guys comes in. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
14)Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
Just keeps yo-yoing on and off my ballot. I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He also does well in James Vail’s standard deviation scores. The Negro League pitchers are very hard to get a handle on, and I will certainly revisit this matter again.
15)Hugh Duffy
I was comparing Carl Mays and Bob Lemon and Wes Ferrell and all the pitchers who are hovering just off the ballot and I genuinely could not make a case for any of them. We are just not in the age of Pitchers With Great Careers. Maybe next year, I’ll have sorted it out. For now, Hugh returns for a brief sojourn in the Top 15. Edges out Leach and Doyle by doing more in a slightly shorter time.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Wesley Cheek Ferrell
It looks like we’re going to elect him; if not this year, then soon. And I just can’t get on board with that. I’ve got at least seven pitchers ahead of him, including Bob Lemon.
Clark Calvin Griffith
Inching closer and closer. If we ever elect some of the backlog, he might just have a shot. I have him above Ferrell, too.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
As my eventual pick for #15 should indicate, he’s not Top 3 among my center fielders. I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. He’s good, but it’s not enough.

<u>Just Wanted to Mention</u>
Virgil Oliver Trucks – “Fire”
I still remember the Arlington Stadium message board asking the following trivia question: “What pitcher recorded more victories in the World Series than he did in the same year’s regular season?” Or something like that. Anyway, it was Trucks, who only made one appearance in the 1945 regular season due to wartime service (and didn’t win), but nabbed two victories in the Fall Classic. What made it great was the collective “WHO?” from the crowd that followed the answer. Became a fan of Virgil Trucks at that very moment.
   26. favre Posted: November 08, 2005 at 07:59 PM (#1723965)
Three cheers for this ballot!

Golly, I don't think anyone has ever cheered my ballot, shucks! :]
   27. OCF Posted: November 08, 2005 at 08:17 PM (#1724018)
9. Bucky Walters - Like Lemon or Ferrel but without the bat.

Oversimplified. Walters wasn't quite as good a hitter as Lemon, but he was still a significantly better hitter than an average pitcher. Just not enough bat to justify keeping him as a third baseman instead of turning him into a pitcher.
   28. Daryn Posted: November 08, 2005 at 08:46 PM (#1724089)
What pitcher recorded more victories in the World Series than he did in the same year’s regular season?

Francisco Rodriguez, 2002.

I'm sure a few relievers must have managed the feat.

What pitcher recorded more saves in the World Series than he did in the same year’s regular season?

Mark Buehrle, 2005.
   29. Sean Gilman Posted: November 08, 2005 at 09:51 PM (#1724264)

1. Pee Wee Reese (-)--Decent war credit makes him a clear choice for the top spot.

2. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. Just how big is your AA discount? (1927)

3. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

6. Clark Griffith (7)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

7. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. George Sisler (9)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

9. Cool Papa Bell (10)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

10. Eppa Rixey (11)--Griffith’s got a big edge in peak, and his career value doesn’t make up the difference. It does give him the edge over the short/career/high peak pitchers though.(1960)

11. Hugh Duffy (12)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.

12. Wes Ferrell (15)--Great peak, just wish it lasted longer. Swapped with Mays this year because of that neat defensive support info.

13. George Van Haltren (14)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually.

14. Carl Mays (13)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell.

15. Biz Mackey (16)--Catcher’s are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage.

16. Willard Brown (17)
17. Joe Sewell (18)
18. Edd Roush (19)
19. Alejandro Oms (20)
20. Quincy Trouppe (21)
21. Red Ruffing (22)
22. Vern Stephens (23)
23. Bob Lemon (-)
24. Roger Bresnahan (24)
25. Joe Medwick (25)
26. Bob Elliott (26)
27. Ed Williamson (27)
28. Jose Mendez (28)
29. Bobby Doerr (29)
30. Dave Bancroft (30)
   30. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: November 08, 2005 at 10:45 PM (#1724394)

I realize my comment was oversimplified but as I mentioned at the top of my ballot my comments will be short. Short comments tend to be oversimplified.
   31. Mark Donelson Posted: November 08, 2005 at 11:39 PM (#1724494)
1964 ballot

Another shuffling year, as I bring what I’m calling Dimino’s Law to bear (see the discussion thread for what I mean by that). In a nutshell, Dimino’s Law helped Irvin, Bresnahan, Reese, Browning, Cravath, and McGraw. It hurt Waddell, Mackey, Berger, Doerr, Doyle, Welch, Grimes, and Carl Mays. In nearly every case, we’re only talking a few spots either way.

The premature Koufax discussion also made me reconsider Dean and Joss, resulting in a boost for both.

Oh, and Kiner and Willard Brown are the new entries to my pHOM this year.

1. Wes Ferrell (pHOM 1945). Takes over the top spot with Waddell’s slight drop. Great peak, along with the exceptional hitting.

2. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Best unelected hitter, at least for the peak-centric.

3. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Rises with every tweak I do (though this time it’s just because Waddell dropped). Would have loved to see him pitch.

4. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I think I’m still his best friend, even after deciding that I was overrating him slightly because he barely met some of my peak criteria. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

5. Joe Medwick (pHOM 1958). The peak is persuasive. I start getting a lot less excited about candidates around here, though I think they’re still above my in/out line for a while yet.

6. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). Still my favorite of the remaining CFs.

7. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another high-peaking infielder.

8. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Underrated (or so says my dropping consensus score). Impressive peak, lots of Ks.

9. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

10. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). A great hitter, even if he didn’t walk much.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste.

[11a.] Monte Irvin. He moves up, having been underrated for not quite making some of my peak criteria. If I’d figured this out a year earlier, my consensus score would have been that much higher last year! Next in line for my pHOM among the backloggers now.

[11b.] Earl Averill. Another outfielder I’ve made wait a bit longer than most did. Not the best of the remaining CFs, but in the top group of them.

12. Quincy Trouppe. All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining catchers.

13. Bucky Walters. Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.

14. Al Rosen. I wonder if he’ll ever get another vote from anyone else. Normally even I don’t go for guys with peaks this short, but his position gives him a decent boost in my system—I think we need more 3Bs.

15. Charlie Keller. I’m thrilled to see him finally make my ballot! Quite close to Kiner overall; a very underappreciated and underrated player.
   32. Mark Donelson Posted: November 08, 2005 at 11:39 PM (#1724495)
16-20: Sisler, Bresnahan, Dean, Gordon, McCormick
21-25: C. Jones, Doyle, Reese, Browning, Mackey
26-30: Berger, H. Wilson, Oms, Redding, Cicotte
31-35: Poles, Leach, Cravath, Doerr, Roush
36-40: Chance, Ryan, Burns, Joss, Dunlap
41-45: Pesky, Lemon, Van Haltren, Griffith, Veach
46-50: C. Mays, Rizzuto, Welch, McGraw, B. Johnson


•Ruffing. Obviously not a peak voter’s cup of tea. Not in my top 50.

•Rixey. Well above Ruffing, but still no peak to speak of. Just outside my top 50.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, and he was another candidate I was overrating slightly on the little peak he did have. Drops from #21 to #25.

•Griffith. I like him better than Rixey or Ruffing, but there’s still limited appeal here for a peak voter. He’s at #44.

•Van Haltren. Very much like Griffith; not a peak voter’s kind of hitter, really. He’s right above Griffith at #43.

•Bell. Another guy I can’t see elevating on reputation alone, which I’d have to do to get him anywhere near my ballot. As is, he’s not in my top 50, though he’s not too far outside it.

•Reese. As I said on the discussion thread, his peak (as opposed to his prime, which doesn’t count nearly as much for me) doesn’t thrill me so much. I was underrating him due to his peak being just short of my usual criteria, but even adjusting for that doesn’t get him any higher than #23.

•Lemon. He was arguably the best pitcher in the AL for a while there, but the numbers themselves aren’t that stellar—he has a nice little peak, with the emphasis on “little.” I’m not a big fan of many of the AL pitchers of this era. He ends up at #42.

•Trucks. A couple of great years, but there’s just not enough there. Not close to my top 50.

•Maglie. Better than I expected, certainly. I, too, need to investigate his Mexican League numbers a bit more, but for the time being he’s comfortably enough outside my top 50 that I’m not going to stress about exactly where to put him.

None of the other new candidates, including the two NeL candidates, is remotely close.
   33. Rick A. Posted: November 09, 2005 at 03:36 AM (#1724628)
Wes Ferrell
Billy Herman

1964 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
9.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10.Wes Ferrell – At first glance, I had him off my ballot. Career is very short, but it is almost all peak. Close, but not as good as Vance. Elected PHOM in 1964
11.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information.
12.Pee Wee Reese – Not much peak or prime, but a ton of above-average value. I tend to be a peak/prime voter, but a player can make my ballot if he has a lot of above-average value and plays a key defensive position.
13.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
15.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot

Bob Lemon Just misses my ballot. A step behind Ferrell. Very close to Walters and Dean.

Required Disclosures
Medwick and Bell in the early 20's
Rixey and Ruffing I tend to lean towards peak more than career
Van Haltren Getting pushed down. Maybe I'll take another look at him.
Clark Griffith Never rated very well in my system.

Off the ballot
16-20 Walters, Lemon, Monroe, Sisler, Dean
21-25 Medwick, Mays, Bresnahan, Bell, Oms
26-30 Roush, Cooper, Johnson, Waddell, McGraw
31-35 Rosen, Leach, Ruffing, Cravath, Keller
36-40 Elliott, Schang, Stephens, Gordon, Doyle
41-45 Poles, Tiernan, Sewell, Doerr, F. Jones
46-50 Van Haltren, Rixey, Taylor, Trouppe, Wilson
   34. SWW Posted: November 09, 2005 at 02:57 PM (#1724899)
What pitcher recorded more victories in the World Series than he did in the same year’s regular season?

Francisco Rodriguez, 2002.

Yeah, well, you've got me there. At the time, Trucks was the only answer they were after. (1984? I think they still had the enormous Texas-shaped scoreboard at the time.) Maybe it was "starting pitcher."

In any event, talk about putting the war behind you.
   35. TomH Posted: November 10, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1726162)
1964 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Pee Wee Reese {new}
If I were a peak voter, he wouldn’t be up here. But I ain’t no peak voter. So HERE he is.
2-Clark Griffith (2) [8]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog.
3-Wes Ferrell (3) [3]
Career ERA of 4.04, but his league/park average ERA was 4.72. Then add in the huge bat. Do you know how tempting it is to move Mister Ferrell up one teensy spot higher so he gets the ‘elect me’ bonus…..?
4-Joe Sewell (4) [21]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP plus very good defense. Y’all gonna dis Alan Trammell?
5-George Van Haltren (6) [9]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
6-Red Ruffing (7) [4]
Eppa Rixey, plus he could hit. Nice World Series stats.
7-Bob Lemon {new}
Near-comparable to Wes. Less peak, equal prime, slightly better career. Might be worthy.
8-Cool Papa Bell (8) [10]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
9-Bucky Walters (9) [25]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
10-John McGraw (10) [39]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
11-Joe Gordon (11) [23]
Nudges out Doerr; I might feel differently if Doerr had helped his team over the top in many close pennant races they lost.
12-Eppa Rixey (12) [6]
115 ERA+ in massive amount of innings, in probably the weaker league. Would we elect a guy with a 110ish ERA+ and no stick?
13-Biz Mackey (13) [7]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
14-Willard Brown (14) [15]
His closest comp seems to be Averill, but not quite the glove.
15-Frank Chance (15) [49]
Peerless leader. Managing may have Cost him playing time. A key cog on some dominant teams, and played well in many World Series. Probably more valuable defensively than most systems credit him for.

tentative 16-25: Beckley, Sisler, Childs, Medwick, Rizzuto, Monroe, Kiner, Doerr, Bresnahan, Traynor

Others near the ballot:
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Indian Bob Johnson …better career hitter than C Klein, P Browning, or H Wilson
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Dobie Moore …peak/prime shortstop
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NegL Ofer
Vern Stephens … good but not great
   36. Al Peterson Posted: November 10, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1726217)
1964 ballot. Hey, I’m not posting at Monday near the deadline. How ‘bout that? Interesting couple of new eligibles, one who cuts the mustard.

1.Joe Medwick (2). I’ve argued how close Medwick and Bob Johnson are when you talk about career value. So if Indian Bob is high then so is Ducky. Beats him out because of career shape – the peak is pretty nice.

2.Clark Griffith (3). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

3.Dick Redding (5). CANNONBALL!!! Pitched in multiple leagues, each time having success. He’s the NeL pitcher I think we’re missing.

4.Jimmy Ryan (8). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

5.Bob Johnson (4). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

6.Bobby Doerr (6).
Middle IF who is slightly above many others in the running for HOM. Billy Herman minus a little.

7.Bob Lemon (-). With him I bow to the mighty Wins category – 8 out of 9 years top 3 in the American League. Egads!

8.Red Ruffing (7). Wonderful hitter for someone doing it as a sidelight to some good pitching. Rixey plus sorta guy.

9.Hugh Duffy (14). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. Duffy has showed up occasionally before so I’m not upset to see him mentioned again.

10.Tommy Leach (20). Two positions make him hard to rate. Fielded well at both, hit with enough authority to be considered valuable.

11.Biz Mackey (11). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

12.Rube Waddell (19). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went.

13.Edd Roush (16). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

14.Cool Papa Bell (13). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

15. Frank Chance (15). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. All folks down this way on the ballot have flaws so the playing time issue is lessened at least for a ballot mention.

16-20:Dobie Moore, Rixey, Van Haltren, Poles, Childs
21-25:Mullane, F. Jones, Byrd, Easter, Kiner
26-30:Browning, Reese, Berger, Mendez, Bridges
31-35:D. Leonard, Sewell, Cicotte, Lundy, Keller
36-40:Sisler, Trout, Willard Brown, McGraw, Shocker
41-45:Gomez, Mays, Veach, Beckley, Willis
46-50:Ben Taylor, Trouppe, Wes Ferrell, Joss, Gordon

Top Returnees: Ferrell (#48) and Sisler (#36) both are peakish candidates. I tend to do some mixing of peak and career and they come up short. Van Haltren (#18) is around the fringes of the ballot for me. He’s on one year, off another, kinda like him being on the cusp of the HOM.

New guys: Reese did everything well but doesn’t have an outstanding characteristic which made me say “I must have him on the ballot”. I might have to re-examine him in the near future to see if my low side projection gives him just due. Trucks and Maglie - guys you’d like on your team, not necessary to rush to the HOM.
   37. EricC Posted: November 11, 2005 at 01:26 AM (#1727300)
1964 ballot.

1. Wally Schang Tremendous career value in his long career, many seasons with > 120 OPS+ as a C. An OBP-heavy OPS, ranking 2nd all time among C in career OBP. Low in-season catcher usage during this era taken into account. Reese's most similar player in my system.

2. Pee-Wee Reese Boosted from mid-ballot to near the top with war credit. Steadily one of the top SS in baseball during his long prime and the overall best SS
in the period defined by his career. The type of player who used to get elected to the HoF but would have a hard time nowadays.

3. Joe Sewell 87.4 WARP3 in 1903 games is arguably a HoM-worthy career, while the number of seasons among the top N players in league is evidence of a HoM-worthy peak. As with Schang, the answer to AL vs. NL league strength in the 1910s-1920s has a big effect on his all-time standing.

4. Joe Gordon With all the discussion about WWII credit, how much difference will it make between anybody getting elected or not? Comparisons with the
performance of similar players by age suggests that he may have missed out on some great seasons. The downside is that Gordon + war credit may look too much like Sewell for some.

5. Red Ruffing We haven't seen anybody quite like him; a tad below Eddie Plank and a tad above Rixey IMO is the best description. A lower peak than any other pitcher I've voted for so strongly, but his great career length for his era more than makes up for it. More career WS as a Yankee than any other pitcher.

6. Bobby Doerr A great 2B; another player who edges up because of war credit.

7. Charlie Keller Won't make the HoM because injuries curtailed his career, but his prime looks like the real deal to me, as a perennial (non-Ted Williams) all star and
MVP-level player. Had his best seasons in the worst-possible time to be a post-1920 slugger and lost nearly two seasons at his probable peak.

8. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP in the 1930-1943 AL.

9. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

10. Joe Medwick Played like an inner-circle HoMer for 3 years, but like a non-HoMer the rest of his career, averaging out to a borderline HoM candidate. Still, I'm liking him more as time goes on.

11. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; Gomez seems like a reasonable comparison.

12. Phil Rizzuto A defensive star who lost 3 years of his probable peak to the war, likely costing him a 300 WS career. Gets more war credit in my system than any other player so far.

13. Lefty Gomez With "dominant season" pitcher bonuses, his 2 Cy-Young type seasons help to boost him above the other high-peak short career pitchers. Seems like the type who would be a relief ace if he were playing today.

14. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers. Looked at Trouppe again, but still have more confidence in Mackey as a bona fide candidate. As Radcliffe and Petway are also still in the NeL C glut, looking forward to comprehensive NeL statistical data to do a better job of sorting everybody out.

15. Dutch (Emil) Leonard In the tradition of pitchers such as Waite Hoyt, he makes my ballot as a long-career good pitcher with some very good years. Makes his first appearance on my ballot.

Ferrell, Rixey, and Griffith, and Van Haltren have all made my ballot in past years.

Bob Lemon was very good, but with a slight league discount, his career ERA+/IP+, and career shape (in context) is in a range where most comparable pitchers are not HoMers.

Having grown up near Niagara Falls, I would like to have Maglie on my ballot, but Dolf Luque seems to have an even better case, and Luque still has too much
uncertainty to have ever made my ballot.
   38. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 11, 2005 at 01:45 PM (#1727591)
Whoops! Meant to post this over here. Thanks to those who pointed it out to me.

I'm awash in catalogue deadlines this week, so it's a quickie ballot for me.

1. Jose Mendez: No change for J-Men.
2. Leroy Matlock: I'm still L-Mat's best friend.
3. Bucky Walters: I've got, what, four or five of these 2500-3250 INN pitchers with good bats on my ballot? Another blind spot revealed. B-Walt rocks.
4. Quincy Trouppe: He and Lemon are extremely close for me.
5. Bob Lemon: B-Lem's all about the prime. He threw a lot of innings for his time, and they were of generally high quality. His hitting helps a lot.
6. Charley Jones: A better blacklistee than Maglie.
7. Wes Ferrell: A lot like Bob.
8. Roger Bresnahan: R-Bres has a little less of everything than Q-Tru.
9. Hugh Duffy: H-Duf has been on my ballot since I was in swaddling clothes.
10. Cupid Childs: C-Chi-squared has the kick-butt peak I love and the outstanding prime I need to give him a ballot spot.
11. Pee Wee Reese: Debuts at number 11 for me. He's a career guy who relies on war credit to be number 17 at his position all time. A soft 17.
12. Joe Medwick: J-Med's a sinking ship. Will he get close this year, or be elected in the 1960s? Or do the newbies spell imminent danger to his short-term outlook?
13. Dobie Moore: D-Mo has the peak I love, and most of the prime I need, and that's good enough for the moment.
14. Willard Brown: The dubya-bee presents WB. Too bad he didn't walk.
15. Biz Mackey: B-Mac? Biz Mac? Bernie Mac? A close shave for the fifteenth spot, but it's Biz's.

Virgil Trucks: Dominating at times, not often enough
Sal Maglie: S-Mag's career started too late. Even with blacklist credit, he's not registering in ballot territory.
Bonnie Serrell: Ray Dandridge Part 2...this time it's personal.
Bob Thurman: Too bad his rookie year was at age 29. Sort of like Maglie when you think about it. Not enough goodies to fill the jar.
   39. Howie Menckel Posted: November 11, 2005 at 03:56 PM (#1727743)
1964 ballot, our (and my) 67th

I am convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I like to think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.
This has become my Year of the Pitcher.

1. EPPA RIXEY - I guess I'm his best friend. See my note on the Bob Lemon thread. A misunderstood career, I think because people found him wanting compared to other guys with that incredible number of IP. But pretend he's a shorter-career guy, and suddenly he looks better than the Ferrells or Lemons. Plus he's got his own solid collection of top 10 IP finishes, so we don't have a Griffith situation here. Eppa missed his age 27 season to WW I (and much of the age 28 season), and I wonder how many have accounted for that, either. Better than Ruffing over full career context, too.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "quite good" is quite unusual. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this list among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey.

3. PEE WEE REESE - His OPS+s as a regular: 122 20 16 13 10* 05 04 04 04* 03 01 (98) (98*) (96) (74) (68) (* figures are war credits)
Long, long career of "average to above average hitting" is very unusual for a SS. His fielding had great value, he played every day, he hit decently - there's nothing like this combination among unelected SSs. Outstanding fielder at a key defensive position - but Beckley could field, too, and 1B was a lot more important back then than it was to become later. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Coulda been No. 1 here with even a single outstanding offensive season.
4. RED RUFFING - I hate putting him this high, because I would so much rather see Rixey elected first. But the numbers don't lie, and they are quite similar to Rixey's. Tiny edge on peak, which Rixey only reverses with superior war credit and late-career advantage.A little WW II credit helps, and he really racked up the innings.
5. WES FERRELL - One of several pitchers to take a big leap this week, in part because of a minor pitching bonus that accrues. I think we have been too hard on too many pitchers. Close call, but the mighty bat and the high volume of innings in peak years gets it done.
6. DICK REDDING - A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that. I agree that this is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment.
7. BOB LEMON - So close to this bunch. Seven straight years in the top 4 in IP, and in four of those years he was right there with the best "rate" pitchers as well. Also a very good hitter; how much that is worth to you may determine the fate of a lot of these pitchers.
8. GEORGE SISLER - The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
9. CUPID CHILDS - I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven 120 OPS+s here. A full-length career for this brutal era is darn impressive.
10. PETE BROWNING - Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Almost would be No. 1 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
11. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than Medwick; I like mashers like this, and a little war credit.
12. COOL PAPA BELL - This is conceding that park and steals led him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd have been in the HOM more a decade ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
13. JOE MEDWICK - Helped a little by a recent review. Very nice 5, 8, 10-year numbers.
14. CLARK GRIFFITH - Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work. Took a hit from me this week, but may rally in future years.
15. GAVY CRAVATH - Gets his first vote from me. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. Could move up further.

MICKEY WELCH - Will return to the ballot someday. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
JOSE MENDEZ - Guessing that the Reuschel comparison doesn't do him justice; the Hershiser one might. Hitting credit, but I wish he had pitched more documented innings.
BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, probably will return to my ballot.

BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread. Sisler - one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career. McGuire - long career as a C, but played not always that often or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth?
   40. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: November 11, 2005 at 05:02 PM (#1727849)
1964 ballot:

1. Pee Wee Reese: First there’s the playing record. 314WS without any war credit and he missed ages 24-26. 11 consecutive all-star quality seasons (’42, ’46-55). Consistent, durable performer who played 140 or more games 13 times. Then there’s character. If we’re constitutionally allowed to dock people one time for negative personalities, we should certainly be allowed to give credit in the other direction as well. Reese’s captaincy of the Dodgers and his role in Jackie Robinson’s early career boosts him from around 4th to the top.

2. Red Ruffing: I’ve been wondering for several years if he’ll be doomed by the bad seasons, the unremarkable ERA+, and having his best years with good-to-great teams. Obviously not doomed, but it’s touch and go. Career stats aren’t everything, but even with the bad years he accumulated 322 WS, 113.3 WARP1. A pennant is a pennant? He was an ace, co-ace, or valuable contributor for 9 pennant winners. (PHOM 1956)

3. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 7th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). SWW believes that Negro Leaguers would be astonished by Bell not being in our HOM. I wonder if the HOF Negro League committee will be similarly astonished. (PHOM 1957)

4. Bob Lemon: He doesn’t have the eye-popping seasons that peak voters like, but there aren’t a lot of pitchers who could match his 9 consecutive seasons of sustained excellence. He’s at the top of my “moderate” career-length pitchers (~2500-3000IP) and is more of a workhorse in context than Mays or Ferrell, his 2 closest comps.

5. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (PHOM 1938)

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (PHOM 1942)

7. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (PHOM 1958)

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. (PHOM 1939)

9. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher.

10. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater.

11. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4.

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, career edge over Ferrell, pretty good hitter.

13. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood.

14. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (PHOM 1929)

15. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson).

Leaving these in place, they’ll likely be back at some time:

16. Clark Griffith: Moved back on the ballot a few years ago when the crowd thinned, and wanders on and off. PHOM 1945.
17. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, and I don't see what Ferrell's got (except for a bat) that he doesn't. Goofy's ahead on black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for better teams. I think he had something to do with them being good.
18. Wes Ferrell: Right behind Gomez.
19. Bob Johnson
20. Rube Waddell

Required comments:
Clark Griffith: See above, he’s 16th.
Wes Ferrell: See above, he’s 18th.
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940), Griffith (1945).
   41. Dolf Lucky Posted: November 11, 2005 at 05:37 PM (#1727931)
1 (2)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

2 (-)Bob Lemon--Like Ferrell, only better.

3 (-)Pee Wee Reese--Most career value on the board

4 (4)Red Ruffing--Pretty clearly the (2nd) best pure pitcher available.

5 (3)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

6 (11)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

7 (13)Wes Ferrell--More career WARP than, say, Eppa Rixey, and the peak ain't even close.

8 (5)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

9 (10)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

10 (8)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM

11 (7)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

12 (12)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

13 (14)Ralph Kiner--Hanging on, but with virtually no shot of reaching my PHOM.

14 (-)Rube Waddell--Back on, in part because I think pitchers are so very underrepresented right now.

15 (9)Vern Stephens--His candidacy is hurt a bit in comparison to Reese.

Dropping out: Dom Dimaggio

Top 10 omissions: Biz Mackey and Cool Papa have been lapped by better post-contemporaries. Rixey lacks the requisite peak. Griffith and Van Haltren are in a 2nd/3rd tier glut, as I see little to differentiate them against other glutters.
   42. Mike Webber Posted: November 11, 2005 at 05:46 PM (#1727950)
I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little.

1)PEE WEE REESE – I hesitated putting Pee Wee #1, but I think with War Credit he deserves the top spot.
2)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified
3)EDD ROUSH –314 win shares, I’m Edd’s best friend.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak.
5)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Huge career value, decided that there is too much here to ignore.
6)COOL PAPA BELL –I am going with the notion that Bell is better than Irvin.
7)RALPH KINER – his peak doesn’t move him ahead of the other Ofers that have 60 to 80 more career win shares.
8)WES FERRELL – Just started Thompson’s bio on the Ferrell family.
9)BOBBY DOERR – lacks outstanding peak.
10)CARL MAYS –I think he has to go ahead of Lemon.
11)JOE GORDON Managed both the KC A’s and KC Royals.
12)BOB LEMON Replaced Gordon as Royals manager.
13)RED RUFFING – About the same as Rixey, however I think his weak peak is more the norm for his era than Rixey.
15)GEORGE SISLER – Good combo of peak and career value.

16-30 Warneke, Bresnahan, Dean, Berger, Rizzuto, Rosen, Traynor, Elliott, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Waddell, Redding, Duffy, Doyle, Schang

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang, Griffith – about 40th, and Trucks is about even with him.
   43. Howie Menckel Posted: November 11, 2005 at 06:18 PM (#1728000)
Nothing personal, DonF, but are you really allowed to move Reese up from 4th because he was good to Jackie Robinson? That seems beyond the bounds of this project.
   44. yest Posted: November 11, 2005 at 06:47 PM (#1728037)
Nothing personal, DonF, but are you really allowed to move
Reese up from 4th because he was good to Jackie Robinson?
That seems beyond the bounds of this project.

since it helped them win games that would probobly
go under the catigory of his leadership helped them win games
which is allowed by the counstitusion
   45. Gadfly Posted: November 11, 2005 at 07:49 PM (#1728146)
1964 Ballot (Gadfly)

As always, I believe the conversion rates used in the HOM are inaccurate (combining actual conversion factors with inappropriate adjustment factors, see Cravath thread) and unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performance which, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.

In addition, I give catchers a 30 percent position bonus, pitchers a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921, and credit for career interruptions that are timeline related (i.e. wars but not injuries). I also upgrade for various other small things like the 1877-78 and 1892-1900 contractions while downgrading early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL, among other things.

My ballot relies on Win Shares and tries to weight peak and career equally, basically multiplying the best 5 years by three and adding the peak in to arrive at a score that looks like an old-fashioned grading system.

1. Gavy Cravath (A+)
Greastest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

2. Willard Brown (A+)
The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. Brown was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1949 and would have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without wars and stupidity.

3. Luke Easter (A)
Basically Willie McCovey's bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, World War II, injuries, and then age discrimination. Easter is the baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all gotten to play their full careers out in the Majors, Easter would have been the one most remembered and it's not even close.

4. Dick Redding (A)
Redding would have won over 300 games in the Major Leagues.

5. Cool Papa Bell (A)
6. Alejandro Oms (A)
7. Biz Mackey (A-)
All very overqualified.

8. Charlie Jones(B+)
Jones was a better hitter than Pete Browning.

9. George Van Haltren (B+)
10. Rube Waddell (B)
11. Hugh Duffy (B)
Three forgotten guys from the turn of the century. Van Haltren is directly comparable to and much better than Jake Beckley.

12. Jose Mendez (B)
13. Qunicy Trouppe (B)
14. Ben Taylor (B-)
Trouppe was a bigger stronger version of Wally Schang.

15. Pee Wee Reese (B-)

Reese was the best of the new elligibles, just barely knocking Edd Roush off the bottom of my ballot as a B- qualified Hall of Famer. Bob Lemon scored out as a solid C Hall of Fame candidate, comfortably between Wes Ferrell and Dizzy Dean in the pitching order. Sal Maglie, even with all sorts of credit for WW2 and the years lost to the blacklist, did not score as well as Lemon. Virgil Trucks was very similar (though not as good) to Dizzy Trout, i.e. three good seasons do not make a Hall of Fame pitcher. The best of the Negro Leaguers, Bob Thurman, did not even get his own thread, but wasn’t going to qualify in any case despit being a quite fascinating player.
   46. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: November 11, 2005 at 08:01 PM (#1728181)
Here's the relevant passage from the constitution, which I did check before I posted. I believe what I did was permissible, as yest said. If the electorate strongly disagrees, I'll drop him a few spots. That'd put Ruffing first, which should please karl no end. :-)

A player’s “personality” is to be considered only to the extent that it affected the outcomes of the player’s games (e.g., via his positive or negative effect on his teammates). In rare and extreme cases, a voter may opt to exclude a player on “personality” grounds on the first ballot on which the player appears. If that player does not get elected on his first ballot, the voter shall give the player full consideration in all subsequent ballots, regardless of the “personality” factors.
   47. Daryn Posted: November 11, 2005 at 08:33 PM (#1728264)
IMO, what Don F is clearly contemplated and allowed by the Constitution.
   48. Daryn Posted: November 11, 2005 at 08:34 PM (#1728266)
what Don F "did"...
   49. Howie Menckel Posted: November 11, 2005 at 08:38 PM (#1728277)
Interesting, Don F, you might have a 'window' there.

But if Pee Wee doesn't get in on the first try, then do you have to take AWAY the 'personality' bonus?
   50. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 11, 2005 at 09:00 PM (#1728314)
I think I'll defer to the Commish on this one. Intangibles are certainly allowed as part of any analysis for a player, but being the captain for a team might be on the same level as being the manager (the latter we are supposed to ignore for this wing of the HoM).

As for helping Jackie Robinson, I don't know how much credit I would give to him for that, anyway. Great story, though.

Mind you, when I get to posting my ballot, Reese will be #1, so maybe I should just shut up. :-)
   51. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: November 11, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1728440)
Mind you, when I get to posting my ballot, Reese will be #1, so maybe I should just shut up. :-)

I probably should have shut up in the first place, since I could just about justify a #1 placement without any character bonus. I found it to be a very significant factor and for me it tipped the scales in his favor.

Speaking of Robinson, how many voters elevated him a couple of years ago because of his character and the significance of his career (whether they mentioned it or not)? I'm not in any way equating Reese to Robinson, just that certain non-statistical elements can influence your thinking.
   52. Brent Posted: November 12, 2005 at 02:44 AM (#1728749)
1964 Ballot:

Some reevaluation—with the WARP data revised again, I decided to do some fine-tuning of my pitcher system—Walters, Welch, and Ruffing move up a bit; Dean and Grimes drop a few places. Lemon and Reese enter my PHoM.

1. Wes Ferrell – Over 8 seasons (1929-36) he averaged 20-12, 4.6 wins above team, 264 IP, 124 DERA+, 103 OPS+. (PHoM 1944)

2. Bob Lemon – As the best friend of Ferrell and Dean, it’s not surprising that I’ll also be Lemon’s best friend. Like Walters, Lemon was a groundball pitcher who was dependent on good defensive support, which he generally received (Cleveland led the AL in fielding WS for 5 of 9 seasons during Lemon’s 1948-56 prime). Of course, a good defensive infield also needs pitchers who can feed them groundballs. Over 9 seasons (1948-56) Lemon averaged 21-12, 1.1 wins above team, 272 IP, 111 DERA+, 88 OPS+. (PHoM 1964)

3. Pee Wee Reese – 7 seasons with 23+ WS; age 24-26 seasons lost to military service; A– defensive shortstop. Although he never placed higher than # 5 in the MVP voting, he made the top-10 eight times and over his career accumulated 1.76 MVP shares. (PHoM 1964)

4. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+, MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

5. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

6. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 124 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

7. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 39 (adjusting to 154 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

8. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA+.

9. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB, MVP for 1934. (PHoM 1958)

10. Ducky Medwick – 7 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 40, places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. MVP for 1937. (PHoM 1958)

11. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS.

12. Red Ruffing – Over 8 seasons (1925, 28, 32, 35-39) he averaged 17-12, 0.4 wins above team, 249 IP, 119 DERA+, 88 OPS+.

13. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 115 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

14. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley.

15. Phil Rizzuto – “The best shortstop ever at turning the double play, almost beyond any dispute, was Phil Rizzuto.”—Bill James, TNBJHBA, p. 638. MVP for 1950; age 25-27 seasons lost to military service.

Near misses:

16. Charlie Keller
17. Biz Mackey
18. Roger Bresnahan
19. Cool Papa Bell
20. Dick Redding
21. Buzz Arlett
22. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
23. Gavy Cravath
24. Leroy Matlock
25. Joe Gordon

39. Eppa Rixey

50. George Van Haltren

Other new arrivals:

I’ve placed Virgil Trucks at # 82.

Based on his major league record alone, Sal Maglie doesn’t make my top 100, and it doesn’t look like his records from the Mexican and Provincial Leagues will advance his case much.
   53. Rob_Wood Posted: November 12, 2005 at 03:47 AM (#1728778)
My 1964 ballot:

1. Pee Wee Reese - clear number one with proper war credit
2. Jake Beckley - I'm totally convinced that he deserves HOM
3. George Van Haltren - star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Bobby Doerr - star second baseman of the Red Sox
5. Red Ruffing - very good pitcher for the Yanks
6. Joe Gordon - star second baseman of Yanks and Tribe
7. Ralph Kiner - not sure I have him high enuf
8. Bob Johnson - very good underrated outfielder
9. Tommy Bridges - curve ball specialist of the Tigers
10. Willard Brown - negro league slugger, could be higher
11. Bob Elliott - good third baseman for Pirates and Braves
12. Joe Medwick - good outfielder for Cards and Dodgers
13. Eppa Rixey - good pitcher for many, many years
14. George Sisler - strange career shape but solid career nonetheless
15. Cupid Childs - star second baseman of the 1890s

Not voting for Wes Ferrell (he's just off my ballot); Biz Mackey (way off my ballot);
Clark Griffith (in my top 25); Cool Papa Bell (way off my ballot); and newbies
Bob Lemon (around 35th); Virgil Trucks (around 35th); and Sal Maglie (even lower).
   54. Kelly in SD Posted: November 12, 2005 at 07:12 AM (#1728885)
1964 Ballot:

1. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901: The weight of the evidence. Over 300 wins. Everyone pitched a lot in the 19th century... well only Galvin and Keefe had more innings pitched. Compared to his compatriots, he had poor offensive support: Caruthers 111, Clarkson 109, Keefe 107, Radbourn 107, Welch 103, and Galvin 102.
Record against other HoMers: 62 – 38. The others are all around .500 or worse. His ERA+ is hurt because he was unlucky regarding unearned runs behind him. If he had luck similar to the other pitchers on his team it would be 2 or 3 points higher.

2. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906: I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. The credit is given based on the surrounding 6 years. I have him roughly 6th in peak and 1st in prime. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Also, career OPS+ of 149 is tied for 4th among eligibles behind Browning, Keller, and Cravath. His Grey Ink score is 4th among eligibles. If you adjust for season length, he has 9 20+ win share season, 6 over 25, and 4 over 30. And those totals do not include the two missing years.

3. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921: Adjusting for season length, he roughly has the second best peak and prime. Adjusting for season length, 7 years over 20 win shares, 6 over 25, and 5 over 30. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League. His Grey Ink score is in the top 10 among eligibles.

4. Wes Ferrell – PHOM 1958: 3rd highest prime behind Feller and Willis. 6th highest peak (non-consecutive) – 95 win shares behind Waddell, Willis – 100, Dean – 99, Feller – 98, and Walters 97. Only Dean had a higher per 275 innings win shares. NO other eligible has 6 seasons of at least 25 win shares. May have had a career ERA over 4.00, but the league’s run environment was so high that he posted a 117 ERA+. If not for Grove, would be remembered as the best AL pitcher between Johnson and Feller.
In 1929, he was 3rd in the league with 25 win shares while Grove was 1st with 28.
In 1930, he was 2nd with 32 win shares to Grove’s 37.
In 1931, he was 3rd with 28 win shares to Grove’s 42 and Earnshaw’s 29.
In 1932, he was 3rd with 26 win shares to Grove’s 33 and Crowder’s 30.
In 1933, he was 8th with 18 win shares.
In 1935, he was 1st with 35 win shares.
In 1936, he was 2nd with 27 win shares to Grove’s 29.

5. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957: WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Tied with Pete Browning for second in peak score. Fourth in adjusted prime – Jones, Browning, Duffy. 4 seasons with 30 win shares + 2 adjusted for WWII time. Only Ralph Kiner has 4 seasons over 30 among eligibles. Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152. Was an on-base machine, with the 4th highest OBP among eligibles behind McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. Also, hit with tremendous power. His .518 SLG is behind only Kiner, Wilson, Klein, Bi Herman, K Williams, and Berger. Among position players he finished as follows: 1939 – 22 win shares – 14th in AL in rookie year. 1940 – 24 win shares – 9th in AL. 1941 – 32 win shares – 4th in AL. 1942 – 34 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1943 – 36 win shares – 2nd in AL. 1946 – 31 win shares – 4th in AL.

6. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918: Adjusted for season length, only Browning, Robinson, and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime. 7 years with at least 25 win shares. No other eligible has that. 8 years adjusting for season length which is 2nd only to GVH. 5th in Black Ink behind Cravath, Klein, Medwick, and Kiner. His Grey Ink is top 10. 5 times a win shares All-Star. An A+ outfielder who played less than 50% of his games in center. He was 2nd in 1890 PL with 26 win shares. 1891 AA 3rd with 28. 1892 NL 5th with 29. 1893 NL 1st with 28 (tied). 1894 NL 1st with 33. 1895 NL 11th with 23. 1897 8th with 25. 1898 13th with 25.

7. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958: This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts. 3 times best pitcher in NL. Only Feller, Dean, Waddell, and Willis have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Feller and Dean have more Black Ink.

8. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960: Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.

9. Pee-Wee Reese – PHOM 1964: 7 times a win shares All-Star, 6 times a STATS All-Star. 10 times in All-Star Game. 10 years with 20 or more win shares, 5 over 25. 3 win shares Gold Gloves. 3 years of War credit available on top of that. Always in the line-up - played at least 140 games every year from age 22 to 37 (except for the War years.) Career OPS+ was 99, but would have been over 100 if no War. He missed his age 24, 25, and 26 years. 8 years top 10 in MVP voting, though never in top 5. 11 straight years in top 10 in walks. 11 years in top 10 in stolen bases out of 13. 8 years in top in runs. 5 years top ten in OBP. Top of the order hitter whose job it was to get on base and play great defense. He did for 12 straight years + 3 for the war.

10. Alejandro Ohms: Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic. I don’t have much more to go on than his thread and the translations.
   55. Kelly in SD Posted: November 12, 2005 at 07:13 AM (#1728886)
11. Luke Easter: I give various bits of credit for WWII, NeL play, Industrial League play, and barnstorming. He was a fearsome power hitter who played forever.

12. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942: Only Ruffing and Rixey have a higher career win share total. He is tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. He has the highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers. First in NL twice (1899, 1901). Top 10 pitcher in 1902, 1903, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909.

13. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932): Gets a boost because I am reevaluating how I structure my ballot. I saw that I had 6 pitchers and 6 outfielders in the top 15. With everyone from Reese down to Medwick separated by very thin amounts, I thought it better to have at least one player from each position. Childs was the best second basemen of the 1890s by a wide margin. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year of the decade. Middle infielders did not last long in the 1890s. Childs did. A walking machine. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.

14. Tommy Leach : Gets a boost because I am reevaluating how I structure my ballot. I saw that I had 6 pitchers and 6 outfielders in the top 15. With everyone from Reese down to Medwick separated by very thin amounts, I thought it better to have at least one player from each position. I know Leach split time in centerfield along with third, but I see him as the most qualified 3rd baseman by far. 7 Gold Gloves by win shares. 5 times a win shares All-Star. Instrumental in the Pittsburgh defenses of the first 15 years of the 20th century.

15. Bob Lemon: 7 20 win seasons, 7 years with 20+ win shares, 7 times a win shares All-Star. The seven times a win shares All-Star may not have great meaning, but it is unique. The last pitcher with 7 or more win shares All-Stars was Lefty Grove and the next with 7 or more are Robin Roberts and Warren Spahn. Grove did do it 12 times and Spahn 13 so I am NOT saying they are comparable.
Lemon has 4 seasons of 25+ win shares. Only Ferrell (6), Willis (5), and Griffith (5) have more among eligibles. Many others have 4 also though.
He was a very good pitcher who didn't get hurt. 9 top tens in IP. 9 top tens in wins. 6 top tens in winning percentage. 6 top tens in ERA. 5 top tens in ERA+.

Top 10s and newbies:
16. Willard Brown: Reduced a bit because of questions I have about how successful he could have been with the low translated walk levels. Does have the long series of 25+ win shares seasons that my system loves.

17. Burleigh Grimes - PHOM 1961: Had the big years that Ruffing and Rixey did not. 6 times a win shares all-star. Less run support than Ruffing. Black Ink total is 7th among eligibles. Grey Ink is 3rd among eligibles. I urge others to review his candidacy.

18. Dobie Moore: I give 3 years of credit for Wreckers play. If I gave more, he would be on the ballot. Very high level of performance hitting and fielding for a shortstop. Too bad he jumped out of the whorehouse window and broke his leg.
19. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Yet another long career, high prime player. Nine years with over 25 win shares after you adjust for season length. Could move up next election if Brown moves down.
20. Edd Roush (PHOM 1940): I’ll take the high average and good power he provided. A good fielder in CF. I still think the group voted in a mistake when they went head-over-heals for Max Carey.
21. Wilbur Cooper: Stuck on the Pirates during the trough between the successes in the Oughts and the mid-20s. Long consistent career with higher peaks than Ruffing or Rixey.
22. Biz Mackey: A great fielder, but I like more hitting.
23. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Great leadoff hitter. Took walks. Good fielder. Still want him back on the ballot. Has he been lost to history because he played with the Giants before Frisch got there?
24. Red Ruffing: I see very little difference between him and Lefty Gomez. The Yankees results when they started are very similar. Lefty Gomez pitched better against the better teams. Ruffing pitched worse than the average Yankee pitcher against first division teams.
25. Joe Medwick: 3 big years is not enough. Too much disparity between his peak and everything else.

Griffith: Roughly 8th-10th best eligible pitcher. Similar peak and prime to many eligibles, but the pitchers in his era all had bigger years then he and more of them. Never the best in his league.
Beckley: Around 110th-115th. No peak and a very low prime. No seasons with 25 win shares.
Rixey: No peak. Low level, but long term prime. Long careers with no peak / little prime do the worst in my system.
Waddell: Too inconsistent. Great peak, but not enough surrounding support. Big strikeout totals do not impress me. If the strikeouts were supposed to help because they prevented balls in play during a time when there were lots of errors, why did Waddell allow slightly more unearned runs than expected based on his team’s performances.
Sisler: About 36th. Peak and prime do not match the players on the ballot. Look at his homepark. Its like Colorado in some years. Look at Hornsby’s splits for example. Remember, the two teams shared a home park.
Kiner: In a giant knot around 30th. I don’t agree with the placement, but I haven’t figured out why he comes out so low. I expected 15th to 20th. His peak and prime are a little lower than the guys on the ballot and the career is short.
Bell: Around 30th-35th. Lack of big years kills him.
Trucks: About the 30th best eligible pitcher. I give 2 years of war credit. There just is not enough to go with the 3 big years. Tigers certainly came up good pitchers for a spell: Newhouser, Trucks, Trout, Rowe, and had Newsom for his best years.
Maglie: About the 16th-18th eligible pitcher with maybe too-liberal credit for the non-NL years.
   56. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: November 12, 2005 at 07:38 AM (#1728888)
Argh, kind of last-minute out-of-town trip keeps me from reviewing the holdovers (I really need to do some work on that clump of middle infielders in the bottom half of my ballot.) But I am certain in my placement of the new candidates. Reese and Lemon make my PHoM.

1. Pee Wee Reese - As I've said in the past, I like complete candidates, guys who do everything well, and Reese qualifies by my standards. I'd find him comparable to the top SS candidates even without war credit, so with it, he's clearly ahead.

2. Tommy Leach
3. Bill Monroe

4. Bob Lemon - Does very well on my pitcher rating system. He's very hard to distinguish from Ferrell, but if it really gets down to a peak/career argument, I'll almost always tilt towards the career.

5. Wes Ferrell
6. Quincy Trouppe
7. Willard Brown
8. Dick Redding
9. Joe Sewell
10. Phil Rizzuto
11. Cupid Childs
12. Bobby Doerr
13. Dobie Moore
14. Bob Elliot
15. George Van Haltren

Medwick is barely any better than Bob Johnson.
Ruffing gets a lot of help from being a Yankee.
Rixey has very little peak.
Mackey's good, but Trouppe's records are just as good plus four undocumented seasons.
Cool Papa Bell was an amazing player to watch, but his records don't match the legend.
Griffith was the 4th best pitcher of the 1890s, but he's a lot closer to 5th than 3rd.

All right, now if I can't back to a well-written (for me) ballot over Thanksgiving weekend, something is seriously wrong.
   57. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: November 12, 2005 at 07:40 AM (#1728889)
Ooops, forgot. I haven't quite got a handle on Maglie yet, but I am certain he's not making my ballot anytime soon. The non-MLB record just isn't enough to make it for me.
   58. Paul Wendt Posted: November 12, 2005 at 03:25 PM (#1728965)
yest November 08, 2005 at 01:58 AM (#1723039)
karl in the futre can you put a space in your voting history so the thread wouldn't expand to far

Hear, hear. Horizontal scrolling is a killer.
   59. Thane of Bagarth Posted: November 12, 2005 at 04:01 PM (#1728985)
1964 Ballot:
1) Pee Wee Reese
99.5 WARP3 and 314 WS in a war-shortened career is impressive. 47.2 WARP3 and 134 WS in his 5-peak shows he wasn’t just racking up value by being mediocre for a long time. He might not have been first on my ballot without war credit, but with it I think he’s a clear #1 on this ballot.

2) Red Ruffing
His peak is middle of the pack, but he racks up some nice career value (103.3 WARP3, 992 PRAR, 322 Win Shares). It doesn’t hurt that he helped himself at the plate with an 81 OPS+.

3) Bucky Walters
89.6 WARP3, 251 WS. An excellent, underrated pitcher. Similar numbers to Ferrell, but with slightly less peak and more career.

4) Ben Taylor
Riley writes: “considered the best first baseman in black baseball prior to the arrival of Buck Leonard.” Even if he was only the third best 1B of the Negro Leagues, he deserves to join the HoM.

5) Dick Redding
2nd best Black pitcher of the Deadball Era.

6) Jose Mendez
Possibly better than Redding.

7) Dizzy Trout
87.4 WARP3, 228 WS, Top 5 PRAA/PRAR: 152/447. Here’s a guy where it seems like the war discount you use will greatly affect his placement. I’m ok with the BP discounts, so he comes out high on my ballot.

8) Dutch Leonard
91.9 WARP3, 233 WS. This guy racked up a surprising amount of career value. 956 all-time PRAR ranks second only to Ruffing.

9) Bob Lemon
Yet another pitcher cracks my top 10. Slightly better peak and career numbers than Ferrell, and, like Wes, Lemon could hit, too.

10) Joe Medwick
He’s got the best 3-year (109) and 5-consecutive year (157) WS numbers of any eligible hitter. WARP seems to think his peak is more in the middle of the pack—44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years.

11) George Van Haltren
Clearly HoM-worthy by Win Shares, borderline at best by WARP3…I’ve got him somewhere in-between.

12) Bobby Doerr
He’s at the top of the middle infielder heap. In the reverse of the GVH case, Win Shares don’t favor him as much as WARP3.

13) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories made him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. The longevity factor keeps him on the ballot.

14) Wes Ferrell
Great combo of pitching and hitting. 100 OPS+. Of eligible pitchers, his 5-year PRAR (457) is 2nd only to Dean.

15) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

The Rest of the Top 50

16) Eppa Rixey—Loads of career value keep him near the ballot…he’s on one year, off the next.
17) Bobo Newsom—Low peak and a meager OPS+, but some decent career value nonetheless. 81.9 WARP3, 237 WS, 939 PRAR.
18) Fielder Jones—Doesn’t have the >130 OPS+ to get noticed like Averill and Johnson, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he’s in their league. 44.3 top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.
19) Dizzy Dean—493 in Top 5 PRAR is only 2 behind Hubbell. Not much beyond the peak, sort of the anti-Rixey.
20) Pete Browning
21) Spot Poles
22) Alejandro Oms
23) Joe Gordon
24) Bill Monroe
25) Rube Waddell
26) Lon Warneke
27) Jimmy Ryan
28) Sal Maglie—No matter where he was pitching, he was excellent. There just isn’t space for him on the ballot, yet.
29) Charlie Keller
30) Virgil Trucks
31) Dick Lundy
32) Leon Day
33) Dave Barnhill
34) Tommy Bridges
35) Urban Shocker
36) Ralph Kiner
37) Clark Griffith—He’s not *that* far off my ballot, the backlog just keeps getting deaper
38) Mel Harder
39) Paul Derringer
40) John Donaldson—2nd best NeL lefty ever(?)
41) Dominic DiMaggio
42) Ed Ciccotte
43) Dobie Moore
44) Tommy Leach
45) Jack Quinn
46) Ray Dandridge
47) Vic Willis
48) Harry Hooper
49) Jim McCormick
50) Bob Johnson

Remaining Consensus Top 10
57) George Sisler—The good part of his career didn’t last long enough for me to rank him higher.
59) Biz Mackey—Highest ranked catcher on my list. I’m just not impressed enough by his batting to get him much closer to the ballot.
66) Jake Beckley—Still not excited about this guy.
   60. OCF Posted: November 12, 2005 at 04:12 PM (#1728999)
1964 ballot.

1. Red Ruffing (3, 1, 2, 3, 2) Offense-ajdusted RA+ PythPat 282-201, which is too good to ignore.
2. Harold Reese (new) An odd case, as he is a career candidate for whom part of the career is hypothetical. But nonetheless compares favorably to some of the shortstops we've elected.
3. Larry Doyle (4, 3, 2, 4, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.
4. Joe Medwick (5, 4, 3, 5, 4) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
5. George Van Haltren (6, 5, 4, 6, 5) Where he's been for me for a long time.
6. Eppa Rixey (7, 6, 5, 7, 6) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
7. Ralph Kiner (--, 5, 8, 7) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
8. Wes Ferrell (8, 7, 7, 9, 8) Nice early peak, flamed out young as pitcher, stopped hitting as well. The fact that he pitched in the highest average run environment of any ballot-worthy 20th century pitcher puts his 2600 IP in perspective, since high-scoring innings are more stressful
9. Joe Sewell (9, 8, 8, 10, 9) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
10. Jake Beckley (11, 10, 10, 11, 10) Not much peak, long career.
11. Quincy Trouppe (-, 15, 15, 17, 16) I keep rereading his discussion thread - maybe he was better than Mackey.
12. Biz Mackey (12, 11, 11, 12, 11) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
13. Jose Mendez (13, 12, 13, 13, 12) A peak-value pitching candidate.
14. Dick Redding (14, 13, 13, 14, 13) A career-value pitching candidate.
15. Bob Lemon (new) Ferrell, Lemon, and Walters form a pretty tight group. I think Ferrell is probably the best of the group, but not by a huge margin. And Walters is right there, too.

16. Bob Elliott (15, 14, 14, 15, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
17. Willard Brown (16, 16, 16, 18, 17) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
18. Hugh Duffy (17, 17, 17, 19, 18)
19. Bucky Walters (19, 18, 18, 20, 19) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
20. Phil Rizzuto (---. 21, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (19, 19, 19, 22, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Joe Gordon (20, 20, 19, 23, 22) Not much to choose from between him and Herman.
23. Tommy Bridges (21, 21, 21, 24, 23) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
24. Cool Papa Bell (22, 22, 22, 25, 24) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
25. Edd Roush (23, 23, 23, 26, 25) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
26. George Sisler (24, 24, 24, 27, 26) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
27. Vern Stephens (--, 25, 28, 27)
28. Bobby Doerr (25, 25, 26, 29, 28)
29. Dobie Moore (26, 26, 27, 30, 29) Short career, high peak.
30. Bob Johnson (27, 27, 28, _, 30)
   61. OCF Posted: November 12, 2005 at 04:29 PM (#1729009)
70 candidates receiving votes so far. There's a very good chance that this number will reach the 79 needed to set a record.
   62. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 12, 2005 at 04:29 PM (#1729010)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Pee Wee Reese-SS (n/e): An extremely durable shortstop of high quality, when including WWII credit, he becomes and easy #1 on my ballot. Best NL shortstop for 1942, 1946, 1947, 1948, 1949, and 1950. Best major league shortstop for 1954.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Alejandro Oms-CF (4): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

4) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (5): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (6): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

7) George Van Haltren-CF/P (8): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

8) Tommy Bridges-P (9): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (10): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Wally Schang-C (11): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

11) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Mickey Welch-P (13): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Pete Browning-CF/LF (14): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

14) Frank Chance-1B/C (15): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

15) Charley Jones-LF/CF (n/e): Back on my ballot after quite a few elections off it. He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

Lemon was a terrific pitcher, but there are a few pitchers that I like better.

Medwick, Ruffing, Ferrell, Griffith, Rixey, Mackey, and Bell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   63. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 12, 2005 at 04:41 PM (#1729020)
I probably should have shut up in the first place, since I could just about justify a #1 placement without any character bonus. I found it to be a very significant factor and for me it tipped the scales in his favor.

Never regret being honest, Don.

Speaking of Robinson, how many voters elevated him a couple of years ago because of his character and the significance of his career (whether they mentioned it or not)? I'm not in any way equating Reese to Robinson, just that certain non-statistical elements can influence your thinking.

Probably a few, but they were wrong. At least your reasoning in regard to Reese is (at the very least) a borderline consideration for placing him on a ballot - Robonson's place in American history is not.
   64. Chris Cobb Posted: November 12, 2005 at 05:54 PM (#1729147)
1964 Ballot

1. Pee Wee Reese. More of a career pick than a peak pick. He was an outstanding shortstop for many years.
2. Clark Griffith (3). Back in an elect-me spot. Received the most elect-me votes in 1961! Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
3. Eppa Rixey (4). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he is now getting closer to election at last. Better than Ruffing, though it’s close.
4. Wes Ferrell (5). WARP rates him as a clear HoMer, nearly as valuable as Grove during his 9-year prime. WS rates him less highly. My analysis is closer to WARP. Ferrell has a decent shot at being the first twentieth-century major-league pitcher not elected to the HoF to be elected to the HoM. (Will Bert Blyleven be the second? Ray Brown, of course, is the first twentieth-century pitcher to reach the HoM but not the HoF.)
5.Alejandro Oms (6). I agree with X that he is the best outfielder eligible. A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I am comfortable with Oms here.
6. Red Ruffing. (7) Lands just between Eppa Rixey and Burleigh Grimes among the “innings-eater” pitching candidates. No great peak, but he had a lot of very good years for the Yankees. His hitting makes the difference between on-ballot and buried deep in the backlog.
7. Biz Mackey (8). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
8. Burleigh Grimes (9). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, with Grimes, Rixey, Roush, and Cravath representing that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 5 ballot spots.
9. Willard Brown (10). Probably the #4 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, and Monte Irvin. More raw power than Leonard and Irvin, I think (though less, apparently, than the mysterious Luke Easter), but his lack of plate discipline places him behind the more complete hitters. The plate-discipline issues make him very hard to rate.
10. Joe Gordon (11) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. An eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
11.Bobo Newsom (12). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border.
12. Edd Roush (13). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher.
13. Gavvy Cravath. (14) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.
14. George Sisler (15). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player.
15. Jose Mendez. (16) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention. New data from Brent gives us a window into CWL league quality during Mendez’s prime: this may help or hurt his case. I hope I’ll have time to study this in the next few “years” in relation to that data.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #25 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #26 below
George Van Haltren. See #22 below
Jake Beckley. See #49 below
   65. Chris Cobb Posted: November 12, 2005 at 05:55 PM (#1729148)
1964 Off-Ballot

16. Dick Redding. (17) Still paired with Mendez, but he won’t follow Mendez back onto the ballot for a couple of elections yet.
17. Ralph Kiner. (18) He’s above my all-time in-out line but not on my ballot yet. Just ahead of Doerr both among 1940s stars and in my all-time list.
18. Bobby Doerr (19). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s.
19. Bob Lemon (n/e). A solid candidate based on his prime. He doesn’t have any monster years, but he was among the top pitchers in the league for a full decade. His career value is very similar to Ferrell’s, but Ferrell’s peak is quite a bit stronger. By every measure he’s really close to Bucky Walters , whom I have decided I was underrating slightly. Lemon’s a borderline case. He’s on the good side of my all-time in-out line, but that’s not quite enough to get him onto this ballot. He might move up when I have evaluated his contemporaries Wynn and Ford. Right now, by reputation, I have them both ahead of Lemon, but it’s possible the numbers will show something different.
20. Buzz Arlett. (20) Pitching credit brings Arlett near my ballot.
21. Rube Waddell (21). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, Waddell seems well ahead of Joss and Dean.
22. George Van Haltren (22). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
23. Tommy Leach (23). Ditto.
24. Bucky Walters. (28) His peak is overrated by some, but he was an outstanding pitcher during his prime. Wouldn’t object to his eventual election.
25. Joe Medwick. (24). Still unenthusiastic about his candidacy. He isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and I think it’s overrated. I’d take Oms, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, and Leach first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
26. Cool Papa Bell (25). Reconsideration of 1933-1936 MLEs moves him past Poles and Maranville. Note to self: Bell really needs a new study now that a lot more MxL data is available.
27. Bill Byrd (26). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher.
28. Rabbit Maranville. (27) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
29. Mickey Welch. (33) Moved him up a bit in the backlog this year as I realized he’d slipped below several players whose contextual value was less than Smiling Mickey’s. May still have him 5-8 spots too low, but for now that distinction isn’t significant. In ten years, I’ll have to think more carefully about him vs. Lemon and Walters.
30. Leroy Matlock (29). A very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
31. Larry Doyle (30). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
32. Spotswood Poles (31). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look, though additional perspective offered by Brent’s CWL data doesn’t help his case.
33. Bob Elliott. (32) Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now.
34. Carl Mays. (34) Wes Ferrell lite.
35. Urban Shocker. (35) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
36. Bus Clarkson</b> . (36) Perhaps the best player to get no support from the experts in _Cool Papas and Double Duties_. My ranking system using Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs places Clarkson virtually even with Bobby Doerr, but I think the good doctor’s MLEs are a little bit higher than what my own would be, so until I’ve a chance to run my own numbers for Clarkson, I’m going to place him conservatively at the rear of the borderline infielder group for the 1940s: Gordon, Doerr, Elliott, and Clarkson. These four are all very close in value, but when they are shuffled in with 70 years worth of borderline candidates, they end up separated by 25 slots top-to-bottom.
37. Bob Johnson (37). Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
38. Hugh Duffy. (38) Another guy whom I think of as “just off-ballot” who is now nearly down to 40 in the rankings. Youch!
39. Jimmy Ryan (39) Nice peak, but in a weak league, and for much of his long career his numbers are not distinguished.
40. Roger Bresnahan (40) The first of the reserve catcher trio. He, Schang, and Trouppe were all very similar in value: if I change my mind about comparing catchers to players at other positions, they are poised to rise.
41. Wally Schang (41)
42. Quincy Trouppe (42).

43-47. Cupid Childs, George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Charley Jones
48-52. Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley, Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy
53-57. Mel Harder, Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky
58-62. Lave Cross, Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Bobby Veach
63-67. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Phil Rizzuto
68-72. Tommy Bond, Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier
73-77. Bruce Petway, Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan
78-82. Pete Browning, Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day
83-88. Tony Mullane, Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Other new arrivals worthy of note:

I haven’t finished my study of Sal Maglie and Virgil Trucks, but I’m sure they don’t break my top 40. Whether they place above the Berger line and get listed, I don’t yet know.

Bob Thurman and Bonnie Serrell are both interesting players, but I don’t think either has a case for the HoM.
   66. Brent Posted: November 12, 2005 at 07:11 PM (#1729191)
Speaking of Robinson, how many voters elevated him a couple of years ago because of his character and the significance of his career (whether they mentioned it or not)? I'm not in any way equating Reese to Robinson, just that certain non-statistical elements can influence your thinking.

Probably a few, but they were wrong. At least your reasoning in regard to Reese is (at the very least) a borderline consideration for placing him on a ballot - Robonson's place in American history is not.

From 1947-56 the Dodgers won 6 of 10 pennants. Would they have been as successful without Robinson's historic courage and leadership? Surely Robinson's case fits the consitution's provision that a player’s personality can be considered when it affected the outcomes of the player’s games. (I didn't give him any extra credit myself -- IMO his numbers were more than good enough by themselves. But I think extra credit for Robinson is certainly allowable.)
   67. Mark Donelson Posted: November 12, 2005 at 09:04 PM (#1729261)
But where does that argument end? I mean, if I want to give Wes Ferrell extra credit because I feel his great skill as a poker player gave his teammates extra confidence that he could outsmart the hitters (yes, I'm entirely making this up, but you get the point), should I be permitted to do that. Color me skeptical.
   68. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 13, 2005 at 09:16 PM (#1730028)
Would they have been as successful without Robinson's historic courage and leadership?

I don't think anybody would argue against that point, Brent. The real question is: how much credit do we give Robinson (or Reese, for that matter)? I don't know.

But I think extra credit for Robinson is certainly allowable.

But only for intangible effort, not for being the first African-American player in the majors in over sixty years.
   69. sunnyday2 Posted: November 13, 2005 at 10:54 PM (#1730119)
Well, he didn't get any XC from me, didn't need it but more to the point didn't get it. XC is the slipperiest of the slippery slopes.
   70. dan b Posted: November 13, 2005 at 11:07 PM (#1730132)
1.Reese Good SS for a long time.
2.Medwick PHoM 1956. Lots of peak value, career value not shabby.
3.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
4.Griffith 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913. 1890’s still underrepresented.
5.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented.
6.Kiner Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles.
7.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returning to my ballot for the first time since 1939. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, I realized that Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
8.Ferrell Tweaking my system to favor peak over career in evaluating pitchers moves Ferrell up.
9.Brown, Willard
10.Leach PHoM 1926.
11.Bell Like Mackey, we are underrating this guy.
12.Cravath Would be in my PHoM had the mle’s been available back in the early 30’s.
13.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
14.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
16.Walters See Ferrell.
18.Keller2nd look moves him close to making my ballot.
19.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
20.W. Cooper PHoM 1942.
   71. Andrew M Posted: November 13, 2005 at 11:12 PM (#1730141)
1964 Ballot

1. (new) Pee Wee Reese. Lots of positives here. With reasonable war credit he’s around 400 Adj. Win Shares and 125 WARP. His defense seems to have been outstanding for the first half of his career. He got on base, ran well, and his team won a lot of games. His outstanding 1942 season when he has 10.0 WARP/27 Win Shares but an OPS+ of 98 is helpful to keep in mind every time I want to rank a player based primarily on OPS+.

2. (5) Eppa Rixey. Like Reese, Rixey had a long, consistent career with some war service thrown in the middle. Except for the years he was fighting in or recovering from WWI, he has a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 and as high as 143. His peak wasn’t that high, but his top ERA+ seasons run 144, 143, 142, 139, 136, 129, 124, which stacks up well against his competition on this ballot.

3. (3) Dobie Moore. At his best, I think Moore may have been better than any position player on this ballot, and with a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (7) Geo. Van Haltren. The Pee Wee Reese of OFs? Not quite, but figuring out where he belongs is difficult as there aren’t any guys with truly similar careers. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

5. (6) Larry Doyle. His career OPS+ (126) is outstanding for a middle infielder. I favor him slightly over Childs because he played a little longer and over Gordon (and Doerr) because I think his peak was higher—though it’s close if you factor in some type of league discount (which, for various reasons, I don’t do much of.) Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from everything I’ve read about him.

6. (8) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a real peak, and he has several all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, which is why he isn’t higher.

7. (2) Clark Griffith. Down somewhat this week, but still my favorite of the medium length career pitchers. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.86 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

8. (9) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

9. (10) Edd Roush. I saw somewhere that there is a biography about Roush coming out in the next few months, which might be interesting as you hear a lot of odd things about this guy and I have a hard time getting a clear picture of his career. A good CF and among the best players in the NL for a decade. Also had a couple of MVP type seasons and was arguably the best player on a team that won a World Series.

10. (11) George Sisler. Nothing new to add. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was an outstanding player for almost a decade before that.

11. (12) Rube Waddell. Downgraded for general unreliability, but in his favor he has lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76. Relatively short career, but a he did pitch almost 3,000 innings.

12. (new) Cool Papa Bell. Too much career to ignore. Like Reese, I think he contributed many things to his teams that aren’t reflected in his modest OPS+.

13. (new) Tommy Bridges. I hope this doesn’t get me banished from the group, but at least for this week I like Bridges better than both Ferrell and Lemon. Unlike Lemon and Ferrell, he was a terrible hitter and not as much of a workhorse—though he did finish in the top 10 in innings 5 times—but I’ll live with that from a guy with six 140 ERA+ seasons in the 1930s and 40s American League.

14. (14) George J. Burns. In many ways I like him better than his contemporary Edd Roush. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Could get on base, run, field, and his teams won a lot of games.

15. (14) Wes Ferrell. Another guy who didn't make it past 30. It still strikes me as odd that he stopped being able to hit about the same time he stopped being able to pitch.

Next 5
16. Alejandro Oms
17. Joe Gordon
18. Hugh Duffy
19. Quincy Trouppe
20. Red Ruffing

Required disclosures:

Red Ruffing. Good pitcher for a long time, but I’ve never been all that excited about him—maybe because I can’t help thinking that a lot of pitchers would have been successful pitching for those Yankees’ teams in the late 30’s.

Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe, though it’s close. He’s around #30 on my ballot.
   72. Trevor P. Posted: November 14, 2005 at 12:33 AM (#1730208)
1) George Van Haltren(3). Consolidated league. Long career. OPS+ above 120, tilting slightly in the OBP direction. Played CF. Pitched. Could steal a base. Top-ten in triples seven times. Lots of little stuff that, put together, makes a HOMer.
2) Eppa Rixey (4). Of eligible pitchers, only Mickey Welch has more innings pitched and an ERA+ over 110. And don't forget about WW1 credit - with it, he probably breaks 100 WARP1.
3) Jake Beckley (5). 125 OPS+ in 10,000 AB when adjusted to a 154-game schedule. Was mentally forgetting that he, like GVH, played in the one-league 1890s.
4)Red Ruffing (6). Have decided WARP is overrating his hitting contributions. He's still the type of player I like, though not as much as when he first debuted.
5)Pee Wee Reese (new). The parade of the career guys ends with Reese. May have performed better compared to a hypothetical “in-out” line than GVH, but have their been more consistently strong center fielders over the course of history? I think so. War-adjusted WARP1 is quite impressive.
6) Quincy Trouppe (7). Have decided he’s the best available catcher. Higher estimated in-season innings than Schang, which isn’t a big thing for a career voter like myself, but it serves to separate the two.
7) Cupid Childs (8). Was best available 2B before Robinson debuted on ballot. Played in an era that was much more perilous for middle IF, and posted similar stats to Doerr, Gordon, et al.
8) Bob Elliott (9). Like Medwick/Johnson, the Hack/Elliott comparison is one more reason I hesitate to use win shares exclusively. Offensively they look about equal, with Elliott having a stronger peak. Defensively, Elliott's OF play (although not terrible by any account I've read) means he's slotting in at #8 whereas Hack made it to #2 on my ballot.
9) Cannonball Dick Redding (11). I don’t think he’s that far off from Paige, and he sure blows Leon Day, Hilton Smith et al. out of the water. Second best NeL pitcher after Smokey Joe Williams from the early era. Estimated 115 ERA+ in 3,600 innings stacks up nicely compared to Lemon, Ferrell, etc.
10)Edd Roush (10). Even playing in a weak league, he posted some strong stats, and being a career voter I think I care less about whether he always played full seasons as long as the overall numbers are there.
11)Wally Schang (12). Dropped down in favor of Trouppe. Still think we’re placing too much importance on his in-season stats and not looking at the overall picture. He was a catcher, after all!
12) Alejandro Oms (13). OPS+ is better than GVH, though he played more corner outfield and against lesser opponents.
13)Bob Lemon (new). Okay, Bob, fine. You go here for now. I’ll keep disentangling your issues with league strength, hitting ability, and peak over the next two weeks, and if you don’t get elected maybe you won’t drift back down into Bucky Walters territory.
14) Jimmy Ryan (15). Garnered more votes than GVH, once upon a time.
15) Tommy Bridges (16). I'll take the guy with 201 career PRAA for #15. Shame Bridges didn't pitch more innings in his top seasons, or he might be getting more support from the electorate.

Wes Ferrell and George Sisler are both just off the ballot, well above my personal “elect me” margin, and I would have no problems with Ferrell’s induction if he goes in this year.
Joe Medwick and Biz Mackey are both a bit farther down, in the high twenties, and probably straddling my all-time in-out line.
Cool Papa Bell is probably mid-thirties, and barring some revelatory new statistical interpretation, will probably not make my ballot for quite some time.
   73. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:25 AM (#1730363)
Ugh, I hate when these things crop up.

First Don, I appreciate your honesty on the ballot.

I don't think anyone gave Robinson extra credit for being a trail blazer, and if they did, they would have been wrong, and I would have said something about it.

Unless you think a player's great personality, leadership, whatever directly led to his team winning more games than they otherwise would have - and you are prepared to give evidence of how he did this better than others on your ballot did, I don't think that type of credit is allowed.

When we wrote that into the Constitution, the intent was entirely focused on not 'discrediting' players who were thought to be headcases, bad apples, jerks, whatever, unless it directly impacted their teams negatively. We didn't put that in there as an out for allowing someone to be moved up.

The argument was, 'Then there’s character. If we’re constitutionally allowed to dock people one time for negative personalities, we should certainly be allowed to give credit in the other direction as well.'

Maybe we should, but we aren't. At least that was the intent. We are trying to judge these guys as baseball players, not as people.

As to this case specifically, I think it's an insult to Jackie Robinson to say that he needed Pee Wee Reese to be able to succeed - which is what someone is saying if they are giving Reese credit for the Dodgers winning more games than they otherwise would have if he weren't such a great guy. How else would this 'talent' have manifested itself on the field, if not in Robinson's play?

I think Phil Rizzuto would have been just as nice to Robinson as Reese was, if given the opportunity to be his keystone partner. Should I give him extra credit too?

This was never the intent of the Constitution, to allow credit for being a good guy.

Should Lou Boudreau get extra credit because he was managing the team when Doby broke in?

Where does it stop? Was Vern Law nice to Roberto Clemente as rookie? If so, does he get extra credit?

Thurman Munson was captain of the Yankees through Steinbrenner's early years - does he get credit for holding the team together?
   74. Patrick W Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:37 AM (#1730376)
1. Pee Wee Reese (n/a), Bkn. (N), SS (’40-’58) (1964) – Slightly above-average bat, good glove, long career – on this ballot, that (+3 war years credit) is enough for 1st place.
2. Bob Lemon (n/a), Clev. (A) SP (’46-’58) (1964) – Peak trumps Career as a tiebreak in my system, and the slimmest of credit for the war creates a tie between Lemon and Ruffing.
3. Red Ruffing (2), N.Y. (A) SP (’25-’47) (1955) – Looks as good as Ted Lyons did.
4. Bobby Doerr (3), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Reaches Boudreau’s career value but takes about 1700 more AB’s (War Adj. Up) to do so. Boudreau’s peak is once again the difference.
5. Bucky Walters (4), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – Dropping Leonard for poor hitting means I have to raise Bucky. So the consensus score is screwed either way.
6. Alejandro Oms (6), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) – I’m worried about the slippery slope here of voting for a non-US based career, but he apparently had great value and did play in the NeL.
7. Willard Brown (7), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) – Very closely ranked to Oms, but Alex gets a bigger boost from peak.
8. Dutch Leonard (8), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – 4 great years before the war, 2 great years after the war, fairly average in between. Dizzy Trout with 500 more IP.
9. Biz Mackey (9), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) – He’ll make it in on my ballot someday.
10. Dizzy Trout (10), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) – Trout is causing me to wonder how much credit I should award to PRAA as opposed to PRAR. Looking at translated careers with a 50/50 split, Trout’s pitching value equals that of Ruffing with over 1500+ fewer IP. My peak factor helps Trout out even more. Is a 50/50 split for RAR/RAA fair or is it too much? Maybe Ruffing is elected before this issue is resolved.
11. Joe Gordon (11), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – I have Sewell being slightly better than Gordon with the glove, and Gordon with every other advantage between the two. It’s a slight advantage in most cases, and it’s not enough to rank Gordon any higher on the ballot than here.
12. Bobo Newsom (12), Wash. – Detr. – St.L (A) SP (’34-’47) – I’m actually kinda glad he made the ballot, because it was quite an ordeal to combine his stats during the 8 years he was traded; all that work didn’t go for naught. Like Leonard, his peak was before the war and he had a reprieve in ’46-’47, but he couldn’t capitalize on the lesser competition in ’42,’43,’45. Looking good for the P-Hall, he’ll never make it in the real thing because we won’t be able to decide on a cap.
13. Phil Rizzuto(13), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – At first look, better than Sewell, worse than Gordon.
14. Joe Sewell (14), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – The great defense of Sewell trumps the modest offense advantage of Hack.
15. Dom DiMaggio (15), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 2nd highest war credit bonus to date (Greenberg).

Wes Ferrell – He’s under consideration.
Eppa Rixey – Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot different than a dozen other pitchers who have been summarily reject by the voters (Harder, Passeau, Shocker, Warneke, Grimes, …).
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Joe Medwick – Drops out this year.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but isn’t.
George Van Haltren (1926) – A staple of my ballots for the first 30+ years I was involved in this project, I have him in the upper 1/3 of a mess of 1B-OF types. Good to see him back in the top ten, I think he’ll at least have to wait till the consistent Elect 3 years to have another chance. However, in the P-Hall plaques stand forever.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   75. Brent Posted: November 14, 2005 at 04:24 AM (#1730440)
Maybe we should, but we aren't. At least that was the intent. We are trying to judge these guys as baseball players, not as people.

Ugh. I feel like I've perhaps been participating in these elections for the last 30+ years under a false assumption. To me it has always seemed obvious that there are connections between players' behavior--good or bad--and the results on the field. For example, repeating my point from # 66, in my mind there is a clear connection between the courage and dignity with which Robinson (and several of his teammates) integrated baseball and the success of the Dodgers over the next 10 years. I've taken part in elections under the assumption that the Constitution allowed us to take account of such behavior if it affected the outcome of the team's games. If the constitution is now being interpreted to say that we aren't allowed consider these factors even when we believe that they affected the results on the field, then I'm not sure I'd care to continue participating. In my opinion, a Hall of Merit that only recognizes statistics as valid information has too narrow a focus and would misrepresent reality.
   76. Esteban Rivera Posted: November 14, 2005 at 04:29 AM (#1730445)
1964 Ballot:

1. Pee Wee Reese - Adding war credit to his record gives him the top spot on my ballot this year.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

8. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

9. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

10. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

11. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

15. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Red Ruffing – Hanging around Rixey in my rankings.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Wes Ferrell - Very good to great peak but not enough to get him on the ballot yet.

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.
   77. sunnyday2 Posted: November 14, 2005 at 04:36 AM (#1730457)

Two words: Ty Cobb.

Three more words: Baltimore Orioles (1890s).

Nice guys don't always finish first. I just don't see how you know that the Dodgers won more games because of Jackie Robinson's personality. Or, conversely, if your theory was true then the Black Sox could never have won the 1919 pennant, lacking so in character as they were.

There are many more counter-examples.
   78. Brent Posted: November 14, 2005 at 05:20 AM (#1730503)
I didn't say that nice guys always finish first, nor did I assert that winning personalities are always "nice" ones. Successful athletes (including Robinson) often are very competitive, aggressive people. I'm just claiming that their personality is part of how I interpret their record, and I have always interpreted the constitution as allowing us to include this facet of the history to the extent that it affected the outcomes of games.
   79. DanG Posted: November 14, 2005 at 05:30 AM (#1730513)
My #1 and #3 were elected. New exhibits for Ruffing and Medwick, retro exhibit for Ryan. In 1964, Reese and Lemon debut. The next year, Slaughter, Doby and Vernon try to hold off the backlog. In 1966, Ted Williams is no-brainer unanimous, while a back-logger grabs the other spot.

1) Pee Wee Reese – A solid HoMer, clearly above the Gray Area, top 200 all-time.

2) Clark Griffith (2,3,1) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Like Leach et al, he doesn’t have that one big Wow! that gets voters excited. Career only seems short due to missing two years after contraction; peak only seems low because the contracted league is harder to dominate. Good hitter, too. A workhorse in his prime, averaging 332 IP from 1895-99 in seasons that were 15% shorter than today. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

3) George Van Haltren (4,5,2) – I’ve been among his five best friends for 29 elections. As the ballot thins out he climbs up again, passing Beckley, Bell and Sisler in recent years. Now in his 56th year eligible. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4) Eppa Rixey (5,6,4) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

5) Wes Ferrell (6,7,5) – Liking him more and more. Eight-year prime of 128 ERA+ and 103 OPS+ while averaging 264 IP in a hitter’s league is damn impressive. Only Hubbell pitched more innings in that time. OK, it’s not Koufax, but he kicks Dean’s arse. Pitchers completing 70% of their starts, 1929-37, minimum 100 CG:
1—74.0% W. Ferrell
2—72.4% L. Grove
3—71.9% D. Dean

6) Red Ruffing (7,8,6) – Equal to Rixey in terms of longevity, falls a bit short on peak and workhorse considerations. Lyons went in without much struggle; Ruffing is close to him as well. I like guys who play; Pitchers with 300 complete games, 1916-2005:

382 W. Spahn
356 T. Lyons
335 R. Ruffing
314 B. Grimes
305 R. Roberts
303 G. Perry
300 L. Grove

7) Tommy Leach (8,9,7) – Still in danger of Lost Cause status, but gained ground again last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10—2182 T. Speaker
11—2156 T. Leach
12—2123 W. Keeler
13—2122 J. Sheckard
14—2087 S. Magee

8) George Sisler (9,10,8) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

9) Biz Mackey (10,11,9) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz. This is around my HoM cutoff line.

10) Edd Roush (11,12,10) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he held his ground last election. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

11) Joe Medwick (12,13,11) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting. Players with more than 550 extra base hits 1933-42:

1—729 J. Medwick
2—707 J. Foxx
3—631 B. Johnson
4—628 H. Greenberg
5—605 M. Ott
6—556 H. Trosky

12) Jimmy Ryan (13,14,12) – The Ryan express stayed on course, but he still has not finished higher than 40th since 1951. From zero ballots in 1957, he now has five solid friends. To those 16 voters who had GVH in their top eleven last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 40 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
5—484 M. Tiernan
6—474 R. Connor
7—467 H. Duffy
8—452 E. McKean

13) Cool Papa Bell (14,15,13) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Could move up.

14) Roger Bresnahan (15,--,14) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

15) Bob Lemon - Right now, I’m not sure whether he’s more like Ferrell or more like Walters. It’s always best to exercise caution with a borderline newbie.
   80. DavidFoss Posted: November 14, 2005 at 05:52 AM (#1730536)
The year in baseball -- 1963. Injuries to Mantle & Maris limit them to 65 and 90 games respectively. The result? Yankees cruise to 104 wins and are never challenged. Tom Tresh has an excellent sophomore season, Elston Howard wins the MVP and the pitching is solid behind Ford and Bouton. What will it take to unseat the Yankees?

The Dodgers also cruised to the pennant. The Cards won 19 of 20 in late august and early september to pull within a game, but then the Dodgers swept a three-game series against the Cards to pull away. Koufax wins the MVP and the CYA. The Dodgers sweep the Yankees in the series. An amazing job by the Dodger front office, building champions in both 1955, 59 and 63 in three very different parks in two cities while almost completely turning over their roster.

A 22 year old rookie in Cincinnati picked up 170 hits while winning the NL-ROY award -- good for about 400th place on the career list for 22 year olds. (Ty Cobb is the leader with 765 hits). :-)

Without further ado, my 1964 ballot. Reese is mid-ballot, Lemon just off and just behind Ruffing and fuzzy teddy bears abound.

1964 Ballot

1. Clark Griffith (2) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
2. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
3. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
4. Biz Mackey (5) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
5. John McGraw (6) -- Welcome back, Mack. 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
6. Dick Redding (7) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Pee Wee Reese (7) -- I haven't been following the ballot thread, but it would not surprise me if "Harold Henry" got inducted this year. I'm OK with that. He certainly got on base well and was an excellent defender when he was younger. The lack of a Cronin/Boudreau style peak keeps him out of the elect-me slots, but there is simply too much career value for this infield-centric voter to ignore.
8. Wes Ferrell (8) -- Tossing in some love for one of the last of the great hitting pitchers. Very nice peak, but not much else. If his arm would have held out a couple of more years, he'd have a much easier case. That could be said of quite a few pitchers, though.
9. Ralph Kiner (9) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
10. Gavvy Cravath (10) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
11. Joe Gordon (11) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
12. Charley Jones (12) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
13. George Sisler (13) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
14. Roger Bresnahan (14) -- Good discussion about him of late. Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
15. Joe Sewell (15) -- The Return of the Backlog: Part Sewell. Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.

16-20. BJohnson, Medwick, Ruffing, Lemon, BElliott,
21-25. Doerr, Rixey, Rosen, Chance, Lombardi,
26-30. Beckley, WBrown, Browning, Leach, Welch
31-35. Moore, Waddell, Rizzuto, VStephens, Roush
   81. Ken Fischer Posted: November 14, 2005 at 12:06 PM (#1730744)
1964 Ballot

1-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

2-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

3-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

4-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

5-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

6-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

7-Pee Wee Reese 314 WS
Pee Wee had a fairly long career and played on several outstanding teams. He was a team leader. He deserves entrance into the HOM but in my mind not before Stephens and Gordon.

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Red Ruffing 322 WS
Several 20-win seasons in the 30s is impressive.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

11-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

12-Joe Medwick 312 WS
I decided there had to be room for the last NL triple crown winner in my top 15.

13-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-Wes Ferrell 233 WS
6-20 win seasons in 8 years during the live ball era. Wes is usually short changed because of his high ERA but it’s an unfair when compared to dead ball counterparts.

Rixey is # 20 on my depth chart with Griffith coming in at # 41. I now have Lemon at #18. That still makes Rixey my # 6 pitcher. He may make it onto my ballot again in the future. I still can’t get excited about Griffith. There are too many other pitchers more qualified.
   82. sunnyday2 Posted: November 14, 2005 at 12:24 PM (#1730746)
>to the extent that it affected the outcomes of games.

Brent, that's my question. How do you know if and to what extent personalities affect the outcome of games? What's the evidence?
   83. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 14, 2005 at 01:01 PM (#1730752)
Brent, I really hope this isn't something that causes you to stop participating.

But those Dodgers won because they had great baseball players. Do you really think Jackie Robinson or Pee Wee Reese made them run faster, swing better, not drop the ball, etc.? Where was that character when they blew a 14 game lead in 1951?

And I'm not saying statistics are everything, they aren't, especially when it comes to fielding. But we don't know anything about 95% of these guys on the personality aspect. A reputation as a good leader usually means 'he was friendly to the press'.

Also, if you are using something like Win Shares, any 'intangible' effect is going to be included for the team already, since it's based on how many games the team won.

It just opens up such a can of worms to start including stuff like that when we really don't have a clue. Baseball isn't like football, where the whole can be significantly greater than the sum of the parts. Baseball is mostly hand-eye coordination and individual events. We really can account for most of what happens out there.
   84. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 14, 2005 at 01:12 PM (#1730756)
Maybe the Dodgers did have an intangible thing going on. I think the burden should be on the person trying to use that to push a guy up. Maybe they exceeded their RC estimates consistently during the Reese/Robinson years, while other teams in the league didn't. Maybe their pitchers allowed fewer runs than you'd expect from their hits, HR, BB, etc.. I don't know. But something like that would be evidence that the whole was greater than the sum. But again, I think we should see evidence before moving players up based solely on reputation.
   85. Howie Menckel Posted: November 14, 2005 at 01:41 PM (#1730765)
I agree wholeheartedly that the Dodgers showed 'courage and dignity' in the 1947-57 period.
But they won because they had tons of great players perform extremely well, not because of some crusade.
I don't know what to say to Brent's comments, but I can confirm that fans generally know almost nothing about what 90 pct of our candidates were really like.
Even the media isn't a whole lot better off in that respect, illusions to the contrary.

One ex-Met was constantly described as a "class" act" in the media - in large part because he always provided material before games for early-edition stories.
Then he got in trouble with the law post-playing career, and became Public Enemy No. 1. Who knows what he's really like? Who can say what intangible impact he had on his team as a player?

As Joe notes, Win Shares in effect already rewards players on more successful teams. Why double count?
   86. karlmagnus Posted: November 14, 2005 at 01:46 PM (#1730769)
I have to say, I think the case that Pee Wee's good character had a major effect on the Dogers' pennant chances in 1947-56. It was a unique situation; not every "nice" player should get a bonus (and everybody says Shoeless Joe was a terrific guy -- let's not rag on the poor Black Sox.) Jackie's success was NOT inevitable and IIRC there are a number of well attested stories of how Pee Wee took the lead in early '47 in helping him to meld with the team. Without Pee Wee, and with Durocher out for the year, Dixie Walker and Ben Chapman might have won. Even if Doby had integrated the AL with Bill Veeck, there would have then been no Jackie, no Campy, and no pennants for the Dodgers.

This new input system with the delays is DREADFUL!
   87. Michael Bass Posted: November 14, 2005 at 02:16 PM (#1730789)
I don't know which side I'm on with respect to Brent's vote (both sides make good points).

But I have no idea why this was brought up this week and not two weeks ago when it was plain that Jackie was getting the benefit of a shitload of extra intangible credit from many voters. And yes, Jackie has a better case for intangible credit than does Reese, but it's not so wide a gap that it's obvious Robinson gets some and Reese does not.
   88. Rusty Priske Posted: November 14, 2005 at 02:40 PM (#1730805)
I voted for Robinson based on what he represented more than what he did.

I'm not saying I wouldn't have voted him #1 anyway, but I didn't bother doing the analysis.

Why? Because he was THAT important.

I believe in the rules. I do.

But some things are more important than rules.

And, quite frankly, if the HoM had decided that he wasn't worthy of induction, I would have left the group.

Any Hall that has anything to do with achievement in baseball has to have Jackie Robinson in it. Otherwise it is a joke.

Thankfully, he was inducted.

(Oh, I think a lot of people gave him intangible bonuses, whether they admit it or not, because his numbers are not as clear cut as the election was. Strong, yes, and likely worthy of induction, but not a slam-bang first ballot #1.)
   89. Daryn Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:04 PM (#1730833)
Oh, I think a lot of people gave him intangible bonuses, whether they admit it or not, because his numbers are not as clear cut as the election was. Strong, yes, and likely worthy of induction, but not a slam-bang first ballot #1.

The same thing is going to happen for Doby. If his name was Dolph Camilli, he wouldn't get a vote. Ask Dolph.
   90. Michael Bass Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:11 PM (#1730843)
Well, in my case, I gave Robinson absolutely zero intangible XC (he did get a year or two of standard pre-MLB credit in the Negro Leagues) and he was still #2 on my ballot, quite easily.

I can't say one way or the other on Doby, but I can say for sure there will be on intangible XC on him either.
   91. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:29 PM (#1730868)
Well, in my case, I gave Robinson absolutely zero intangible XC (he did get a year or two of standard pre-MLB credit in the Negro Leagues) and he was still #2 on my ballot, quite easily.

Same here. With his peak, extra credit for his career, and the competition he was up against, #2 was a reasonable spot for him.

The same thing is going to happen for Doby. If his name was Dolph Camilli, he wouldn't get a vote. Ask Dolph.

I think Larry is at least a notch ot two above Camilli, IMO.

But I have no idea why this was brought up this week and not two weeks ago when it was plain that Jackie was getting the benefit of a shitload of extra intangible credit from many voters.

I did bring it up at the time, but there is no way to police it unless one of the voters points it out himself.
   92. Trevor P. Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:37 PM (#1730876)
Never mind Reese and Robinson - haven't we seen character-based arguments for John Beckwith and, to a lesser extent, Rube Waddell? How are they different, aside from the fact that the merit is going in the opposite direction?
   93. sunnyday2 Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:45 PM (#1730893)
The trick is can you show that the team won or lost more games than they would otherwise have done.

The argument on Rube Waddell, which i don't happen to agree with though I understand it, is he gave up more (un-earned) runs that a (shall we say) smarter pitcher might have done. He lost games (so the argument goes) that his ERA suggests he (or another pitcher) coulda/shoulda/woulda won. That one is easy.

As for Beckwith, he was like Rogers Hornsby. Some teams couldn't wait to get rid of him and performed bettr after he was gone. That at least is the argument as I understand it.

These in my mind are exceptions that prove the rule that it is an extremely rare case where "character counts"--in the standings.
   94. Daryn Posted: November 14, 2005 at 03:56 PM (#1730907)
These in my mind are exceptions that prove the rule that it is an extremely rare case where "character counts"--in the standings.

Yes, and they are identical to the arguments being made in favour of Reese and Robinson.

You should not have to prove statistically why you think their character has been worth games in the standings. If you think it made them and their team better (or worse) ballplayers (as opposed to better, or worse, people) you can count it according to the Constitution as it is written.

As Joe points out (arguing the opposite side) Munson is another guy for which I think these arguments can be made. But there are only a few a decade, which as Marc notes, makes them the exceptions that test the rule.
   95. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 14, 2005 at 04:00 PM (#1730910)
Due to the closeness between a few players for one of the spots, the election will end at exactly 8:00 PM. BTW, I'm battling an intestinal flu, so anything that expedites the election will be greatly appreciated by me.

41 ballots tabulated up to this point. Still missing ballots from: PhillyBooster, Brad G, the Commish, KJOK, Tiboreau, jimd, Max Parkinson, Mike Webber, James Newburg, and (out of order).

Since James Newburg didn't vote in the past five elections, he has been removed from the list.
   96. Trevor P. Posted: November 14, 2005 at 04:05 PM (#1730919)
Well, perhaps this argument has already been made, but Reese's Dodgers, from 1940-58 (excepting the years when Reese was off at war) did exceed their pythagorean record by a combined 40 games. That's about 2.7 wins per year, I believe.

If you're giving XC for character to Reese (which I'm not, by the way) I guess that's one way you could justify it.
   97. DavidFoss Posted: November 14, 2005 at 04:37 PM (#1730986)
One ex-Met was constantly described as a "class act" in the media - in large part because he always provided material before games for early-edition stories.
Then he got in trouble with the law post-playing career, and became Public Enemy No. 1. Who knows what he's really like? Who can say what intangible impact he had on his team as a player?

Yeah, its a really grey area here. Most of the "class acts" we've considered so far (Mathewson, Wagner, Gehrig) were overqualified on merit anyways. We're also entering the era where we are beginning to consider our childhood heroes. We'll have overqualified "class acts" in the future too (Clemente, Ripken, Gwynn) but what happens with a borderline guy like Dale Murphy? What about guys like Garvey & Puckett who proved not to be all that classy in retrospect (or whose character changed). Can you justifiably give any intangible credit to Mattingly who'se career coincided with one of the longest Yankee championship droughts?

Personally, I think this was called the "Hall of Merit" because of the frustration with intangibles being worth too much in the "Hall of Fame". The constitution may allow intangible, but I'm skeptical of it each time someone invokes it (initially anyways). Not to say that it can't be done, but I don't think it should be taken lightly.

Anyhow, I'm glad we're getting this discussion out of the way before we get to the guys we personally watched play.
   98. OCF Posted: November 14, 2005 at 05:05 PM (#1731067)
"Only" 73 players have received votes so far. On the other hand, jimd hasn't voted yet.
   99. fuzzycopper Posted: November 14, 2005 at 05:10 PM (#1731082)
The VC was compromised in part because of intangibles (along with cronyism, etc). I agree with DavidFoss that it's important to re-establish the groundwork for HoM election before childhood idols start popping up on the ballot.
   100. sunnyday2 Posted: November 14, 2005 at 05:20 PM (#1731105)
Maybe each of us should abstain from voting for players who played for our favorite teams. Otherwise Tony Oliva and Kirby Puckett go to the top of my ballot! ;-)
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