Congratulations to Ted and Red!

Medwick fans need to wait one more "year." Lemon, too.

I concur - no discrepancies found.

Consensus scores: absolute unanimity at the top only goes so far. Best possible, +7. Average -6.4

Rusty Priske: +2
RMc: +2
Howie Menckel: 0
DanG: 0
Daryn: -1
Don F: -1
Adam Schafer: -1
OCF: -1
...
Jeff M: -6
Rob Wood: -6
...
Ron Wargo: -12
Gadfly: -12
Kelly in SD: -12
Jim Sp: -12
John Murphy: -13
Dolf Lucky: -14

Wow, that was close.

If we are to go by my ballot Ruffing is the worst selectoin we have made since 1935 (my first year), just beating out Max Carey. However since he is in the mid thirties I can't say that he is an awful selection. A real borderline guy that I would say is borderline out but I can live with it.

I knew my consensus score was going to be bad. It will be worse for the next election.

Here's the unofficial results for the 20-man ballot:

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Ted Williams            1152   48  48                                                         
 2    4  Red Ruffing              462   34      5  4  2  6  4     1  3           1  1  1  1  1  1     3
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3    3  Joe Medwick              438   37      3  4  3  4     1  2     2  2  3  4  2  2  2     1     2
 4    5  Bob Lemon                425   36      4  2  2  2  5  1  2  2     1  2  4  1     1  3  1  2  1
 5    6  Biz Mackey               360   32      1  2     2  2  4  1  7  1  1  3     2  2  1  1     1  1
 6    7  Eppa Rixey               359   33      2  4  3  1  1     2  3  1  2  1  2     4  1  1     3  2
 7    9  George Sisler            329   33      1     2  2  2  4  2     3  1  2  2  1  3  2  2  2     2
 8    8  Clark Griffith           321   27      4  1  3     3  1  1  1  1  1  2           6  1     1  1
 9   10  George Van Haltren       304   24      3  3  1  2  1  1  1     2  2  1  1  1  3     1     1   
10   11  Cool Papa Bell           277   26         4     2  1  1     4  3     1  3  3           2  1  1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   13  Dobie Moore              256   21      4  2  1  1  1     3        1  1        1     1  2  3   
12   12  Jake Beckley             256   20      3  1  3        2  1  1     1  1  2  2  1  2            
13   17  Cannonball Dick Redding  254   22      1  1  2  4     2  2           1  3  1  1  2     1  1   
14   16  Hugh Duffy               249   23            3  3  3        2     2  3  1  1  1     2  1  1   
15   15  Cupid Childs             248   23      1     2  1  1  2  2  4  2        1  2  1     1     1  2
16   14  Willard Brown            241   23         1  1     2  1  3  1  5  1  1  2  1  1     1     2   
17   19  Pete Browning            234   19      3  1  2  1  1        1  3        2  2           1  2   
18   22  José Méndez              233   21      1  2  1     2  2  1     1  2  2  2  1  1        2  1   
19   18  Bobby Doerr              227   25         1  1  2  2     2        2  3     2  3  2  2  2     1
20   23  Ralph Kiner              204   26                  2  4  1  1  2  2  1  1        2  2  2  4  2
21   24  Joe Gordon               201   22      1        1  1  1     1  3  4  1  1     2  1  1  2  2   
22   21  Mickey Welch             201   13      3  2  2  1  2                 1           1        1   
23   20  Joe Sewell               198   21         3  1     1  1  2     2  1        2  1  2     2  1  2
24   25  Bucky Walters            195   17         1  2  1     4     2  2           2  1        1  1   
25   26  Alejandro Oms            177   14      1  1  2     2  2     1  1        1     1     1  1      
26   27  Charley Jones            171   15      1  2           1  3  2     1     1     2     1        1
27   28  Rube Waddell             161   17            1  1  1  2     1     3  1  1  2     1     2     1
28   29  Quincy Trouppe           140   17               1  1     3  1        4     1  1        1  2  2
29   30  Tommy Leach              135   13      1     1  1     1     1  2           3     1  1        1
30   31  Roger Bresnahan          126   16      1  1              1     1     1  1  2     1  4  3      
31   32  Burleigh Grimes          124   12      1           2  1        2  2     1           1     1  1
32   33  Edd Roush                116   14         1           1     1  2  2     1     1  1  2     1  1
33   35  Larry Doyle              109    9         2  2        1              2              1  1      
34   34  Wally Schang             101    9      1        1        2     1     1  1           2         
35   37  Gavy Cravath              98    9      1        1           2     2  1           1           1
36   36  Bob Elliott               86   11                  2           1  2           3        1  2   
37   38  Bob Johnson               72   10                     1  1        1        3  2              2
38   39  Charlie Keller            66    9               1     2                       1  1  2     1  1
39   40  John McGraw               64    5            1     1     2                    1               
40   41  Dizzy Dean                59   10                           1  1        1  1  1     1  3  1   
41   42  Tommy Bridges             56    6                        1     1  2     1           1         
42   43  Vern Stephens             54    6               1  1        1                    1  1     1   
43   46  Ed Williamson             46    6                        1        1  1  1        1           1
44   44  Jimmy Ryan                45    7               1                    1     1     1  1  1     1
45   53T Bill Monroe               44    7         1                          1     1     1     1     2
46   49  Phil Rizzuto              40    7                                 1  1  1  1           1  1  1
47   47  Frank Chance              40    6               1                          2     1  1        1
48T  50T Ernie Lombardi            39    4      1                                1        1     1      
48T  45  Dizzy Trout               39    4                     1  1     1                             1
50T  56  Carl Mays                 37    4                           1        1  2                     
50T  50T Vic Willis                37    4                     1  1           1                       1
52   48  Luke Easter               37    3            1     1                             1            
53   53T Dutch Leonard             36    4                        2                 1           1      
54T  55  Ben Taylor                33    4            1                       1        1              1
54T  58  Pie Traynor               33    4            1                    1                 1     1   
56   59  Chuck Klein               28    3                     1  1                                   1
57   57  Addie Joss                27    3                     1           1                    1      
58   52  Sam Rice                  26    5                           1           1              1  1  1
59   62  Bobo Newsom               23    3                              1           1     1            
60   61  Fielder Jones             21    2            1                                      1         
61   73  George J. Burns           20    3                                 1        1           1      
62   65  Bobby Veach               20    2               1                                   1         
63   60  Leroy Matlock             18    1         1                                                   
64   63  Ed Cicotte                17    2               1                                            1
65   67T Fred Dunlap               16    2                           1                       1         
66   66  Johnny Pesky              16    1               1                                             
67   74T Bus Clarkson              14    2                                    1           1            
68   69T Al Rosen                  13    3                                             1     1  1      
69   69T Dick Lundy                12    2                                             2               
70   67T Tommy Bond                12    1                           1                                 
71   71T Joe Tinker                11    1                              1                              
72   77  Buzz Arlett               10    3                                                1     1  1   
73T  76  Artie Wilson              10    1                                 1                           
73T  71T Sam Leever                10    1                                 1                           
75   78  Lefty Gomez                9    2                                                1  1         
76   81  Murray Dickson             8    1                                       1                     
77T  80  Wilbur Cooper              7    2                                             1              1
77T  64  Mickey Vernon              7    2                                                1        1   
79   79  Hack Wilson                7    1                                          1                  
80   82T Virgil Trucks              6    1                                             1               
81T n/e  Wally Berger               5    1                                                1            
81T  82T Rabbit Maranville          5    1                                                1            
81T  84  Johnny Sain                5    1                                                1            
84  n/e  Duke Farrell               4    1                                                   1         
85T  86T Dave Bancroft              3    1                                                      1      
85T  85  Tony Mullane               3    1                                                      1      
87  n/e  Spotswood Poles            2    2                                                            2
88T n/e  Chet Brewer                2    1                                                         1   
88T  88T Harry Hooper               2    1                                                         1   
88T  86T George Kell                2    1                                                         1   
88T n/e  Ed Konetchy                2    1                                                         1   
92  n/e  Herman Long                1    1                                                            1
Dropped Out: Dom DiMaggio(74T), Heinie Manush(90), Urban Shocker(88T).
Ballots Cast: 48

End

How about Don Newcombe, no votes. Any 16-20? Is he in the deep deep deep backlog or just the backlog?

How much longer are we doing the 20 man ballot. I must admit that I forgot why we are doing it, it doesn't affect anything. Then again if it did I guess it would have a weaker argument.

How much longer are we doing the 20 man ballot.

Good question. Joe?

Evan said,

Actually, based on the current standings of the people in 2nd and 3rd place, and the number of 16-20 votes each has, it is highly UNLIKELY that any method for counting the 16-20 votes would result in any change at all.

You might be surprised. Evan was more or less right - this time. But it could have been different. Here are the top handful in four different systems:

Standard 15: 24-23-19-18-...-7-6-0-0-0-0-0

1152 Williams
447 Ruffing
423 Medwick
400 Lemon
348 Mackey
342 Rixie
303 Sisler
298 Van Haltren
284 Griffith

Lo-20: 24-23-19-18-...-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

1152 Williams
459 Ruffing
438 Medwick
425 Lemon
360 Mackey
359 Rixie
329 Sisler
321 Griffith
304 Van Haltren

Hi-20: 29-28-24-23-...-12-11-10-9-8-7-6

1392 Williams
624 Ruffing
621 Medwick
604 Lemon
522 Rixie
519 Mackey
493 Sisler
455 Griffith
422 Van Haltren

Lo-15: 19-18-13-12-...-2-1-0-0-0-0-0

912 Williams
307 Ruffing
263 Medwick
260 Lemon
212 Rixie
208 Mackey
194 Griffith
188 Van Haltren
178 Sisler

Through most of the election, Medwick was ahead of Ruffing on the "Hi-20" system, which keeps an on-ballot bonus. If I were to count Patrick W's comment on Medwick as a #16 vote instead of disregarding it, he would be ahead even now.

The thing about having an on-ballot bonus is that it rewards players for simply being on ballots, and Medwick was on more ballots than Ruffing.

That was said without any debugging - clearly, I have a few dscrepancies with John in the 16-20 range. which I won't be able to fix tonight.

And if you want a vote or opinion from me: I say don't go to 20-man ballot; keep the 15-man system we started with.

I agree, OCF; it makes little difference and appears to add few advantages; thus let's not make the results questionable by messing around with the voting system mid-way, as though we were the HOF Veterans' Committee.

I agree; it appears to make little difference so let's not become like the HOF Veterans' Committee and change the voting system mid way.

Ah, the delayed and amended double post trick -- a new wrinkle by the utterly error free Internet!

All-time 'vote points totals' leaders, through 1966. Active for 1967 vote in CAPS


VAN HALTREN 17530.5
Jennings 16976
BECKLEY 16750
DUFFY 16523.5
GRIFFITH 16102
BROWNING 14450.5
Pike 13399
WADDELL 12421
Thompson 12349
CHILDS 12316

WELCH 12156
Bennett 11503
RYAN 10903.5
Caruthers 10704
RIXEY 9944
Beckwith 9920
H Stovey 9576
SISLER 9083
Start 8378.5
McGinnity 8232

BRESNAHAN 8174
TLEACH 8146
Pearce 8073
McVey 7985.5
Grant 7969.5
(C Jones 7437, Sewell 7045, Redding 5787, Monroe 5577, Mendez 5576, Mackey 5322, Medwick 5169, Roush 5134, Doyle 5052, Williamson 4588, CP Bell 4570)
(Moore 3780, Grimes 3586, Schang 3477, McGraw 3451)

I got the highest consensus score?

Go me! :)


I vote for the 20 man ballot. I like it.

I have a few dscrepancies with John in the 16-20 range. which I won't be able to fix tonight.

Take your time, OCF.

For what it's worth (as a tallier, not a voter), I think sticking with a 20 man ballot as an unofficial tally and a 15 man ballot as an official tally is a good idea. As the elections start to get closer (if they do), as potential differing results start to become apparent, it will point to the fact that it may be worth revisiting the issue for further clarity.

Just my .02.

Six people had Clark Griffith in 16th place. He should get a bit of a bump next year.

Here is the result giving one point for each elect-me vote.

Ted Williams is the eighth man to go into the Hall of Fame with 100% support and Charley "Red" Ruffing joins him with 10% support.

48 Ted Williams
[gap]
5 Red Ruffing
4 Bob Lemon
4 Clark Griffith
4 Dobie Moore

Rounding out the top ten with three votes each: Joe Medwick, George Van Haltren, Jake Beckley, Pete Browning, and Mickey Welch.

The details suggest that Medwick and Eppa Rixey will do much better next year.

Ron Wargo: -12
Gadfly: -12
Kelly in SD: -12
Jim Sp: -12
John Murphy: -13
Dolf Lucky: -14

Am I becoming the norm?

yest, I don't think you're becoming the normal because there no longer is a normal to become.

If we are to go by my ballot Ruffing is the worst selectoin we have made since 1935 (my first year), just beating out Max Carey.

Yep, you just named the two.

Since we have no newcomers worth anything, could someone who likes to play with the ballot counter plug in the 1966 results, moving everyone up two places, giving us the "indicated" results for 1967?

I can't do that with my counter very easily. (I don't use Evan's, so I don't know what can be done with it.) One can remove Williams from everyone's ballot easily enough, but I'd have to go in ballot-by-ballot to pull out Ruffing.

I just ran it with Evan's. However, I don't want to post the data, for fear of totally rendering the 1967 election meaningless. We've never made such a detailed posting in advance of an election before.

If I get a consensus that it is OK, I will post it. But I do feel that posting kind of destroys the process.

What we could do was say that during the holiday, in lieu of posting, you are allowed to tell Murphy to use the first 15 unelected selections from your 1966 ballot instead of posting an actual ballot.

That will make life easy on the ballot-counters and everyone else this week.

Of course, if you want to vote for a '67 newbie, definitely submit a changed ballot when voting starts.

Since we have no newcomers worth anything, could someone who likes to play with the ballot counter plug in the 1966 results, moving everyone up two places, giving us the "indicated" results for 1967?

It'd be Medwick & Lemon. Mackey & Rixey have too much ground to make up with just 16th & 17th place votes. There would need to be significant re-evaluation from multiple voters to prevent their induction.

I suppose anyone against their induction should speak up. I have them 15th & 16th in my prelim, behind Mackey but ahead of Rixey.

I just ran it with Evan's. However, I don't want to post the data, for fear of totally rendering the 1967 election meaningless. We've never made such a detailed posting in advance of an election before.

Exactly, Ron.

If anyone posts something to that effect, I will be forced to erase it. You'll just have to wait the same way that you have to wait for your Christmas and Hanukah gifts. :-)

Well, maybe my consensus score tends to be high because I am willing to reevaluate players who continue to confound my vote. I doubt I've ever submitted a ballot that was the same as the one before it (discounting elected players and newcomers).
There's ALWAYS room for at least a little reevaluation, especially now. And I'm not copying others' picks when I sometimes reevaluate; this is a damned smart group, and sometimes when I dismiss a player, another look shows me that I was missing something after all (and then there's a guy like Mackey, who I've looked again at maybe 5 times, and so far, he's had no luck. But he's almost due for yet another fair chance from me).

Many players who just fell off our ballots 25 and 30 years ago now probably belong on a weakened ballot. Yet they've been forgotten. I have been meaning to look once more at Frank Chance, and there was a good post on him in the discussion thread this week. If he passes muster, he could well make my top 20 for the first time in decades.
I know some voters have Lemon high and Rixey off their ballots entirely. Ok, but look at my post in the discussion thread and at least consider whether you should have Lemon higher at all, much less 15 and 20 spaces higher!
And I'll consider whatever rebuttals are submitted as well. Might even change my Rixey ranking, if it's compelling.

I think if your holdovers never move up or down at ALL relative to each other for at least 5 years, you are probably not doing this project justice. I can't believe that there isn't a scintilla of evidence that can be unearthed that you didn't previously grasp.

I noticed that Ruffing is the fifth inductee from the class of 1953 eligibles (the others were Greenberg, Wells, Herman, and Hack). Unless I missed a year, I think that means that the class of 1953 now ranks third among (post-1898) classes of incoming eligibles, behind 1934, which had seven candidates elected, and 1899, with six.

Was out of town this week guys, just now getting my bearings . . .

I'd say that for now we should stick with the 15 man ballot, since it doesn't appear to make much of a difference, and all things equal we should lean towards being consistent . . . does that make sense? I'm totally open to compelling logic stating otherwise.

Also, we should still require everyone to post a ballot next week - seems to me it would be a pain in the butt to tell the counters to go check an old thread and pull the top 15 remaining. If the counters can't count on 12/26 for whatever reason (being out of town, etc.) we can always delay the results a few days.

Should we add a week of discussion, or is it okay to have the week of 12/26-1/2 as a discussion week and vote again 1/2-1/9? Will we miss anything, etc.?

Should we add a week of discussion, or is it okay to have the week of 12/26-1/2 as a discussion week and vote again 1/2-1/9? Will we miss anything, etc.?

I'd vote for another week of discussion because 12/25-1/1 is a vacation week for many and because Ashburn versus the backlog in 1968 deserves a full discussion.

I finally debugged my 16-20 tally, to where it agrees with John's post #6. I had one 18th place vote for Ruffing recorded as Redding, and had one other mistake involving Waddell and Bell.

The only changes to my post #10 would be to raise Ruffing on the "Lo-20" from 459 to 462 and on the "Hi-20" from 624 to 632.

As I offered there - I'm set up to run nearly any vote-point scheme to see what would happen.

in the ballot discussion thread I think it has become a consensus that we should spend Xmas week (sorry if you are fighting the war against Christmas) doing the mock HOF ballots if we choose and then opening up discussion after new year's. Of course we could do both I guess.

I just ran it with Evan's. However, I don't want to post the data, for fear of totally rendering the 1967 election meaningless. We've never made such a detailed posting in advance of an election before.

Exactly, Ron.

If anyone posts something to that effect, I will be forced to erase it.

I'm sorry, but this is wrong.

As things stand now, the 1967 election IS meaningless, at the top, anyway. Medwick and Lemon are obviously shoo-ins. As David Foss points out, there seems to be little chance of anyone overtaking them.

But is this really true, or does it only seem to be? My idea in #25 is that by doing "indicated" results for 1967, voters would know exactly what the consequences are of stagnation. It's to say, "If you don't reassess things, these are the results we'll end up with. Are you sure that's what you want?"

Really, it's no big deal if someone posts it or not. The really interesting election will be 1968, as EricC indicates. Who among Ashburn/Mackey/Rixey should be the odd man out? Or is there another? Like Howie said, "There's ALWAYS room for at least a little reevaluation, especially now."

Dan G,
The 1967 elections are only shoo-ins if nearly everybody refuses to take an annual look at their selections.
Since I posted my protestation (and obviously not just because of me), the ballto discussion thread has produced a lot of healthy debate.
We don't need any projected figures. We know who 'appears to be ahead' already.

What we need is everyone to do as much effort as time permits as deeply down the ballot as time allows.
And then whatever happens, happens.

yes, that's "ballot," I meant.

Howie,

I'm with you. Except, I see only benefit from making projections. I really don't understand why projections of any sort would be suppressed. Freedom of inquiry. We think we know who 'appears to be ahead'. Are there illusions in the data that subtly affect what we're seeing? By looking at the issue in different ways, we learn more. Also, it can lead to more questioning whether it ought to be that way.

An impending result that wildly contradicts a voter's system ought to bring forth strong and persistent arguments from said voter against that result. (Carping after the fact is less productive.) I would even go so far to say it is the duty of a conscientious voter to make that strong arguement. Lacking this, the voter should have no choice but to undertake changes in his system to bring it into closer agreement with the choice of the consensus.

For this election, it means that the voters who did not have Medwick or Lemon in their top 20 in 1966 need to speak up now. It is incumbent on the 11 EOJM and the 12 EOBL to do their best to torpedo Ducky and Bob's rush into the HoM, especially if they are FOBM or FOER.

As you said, "What we need is everyone to do as much effort as time permits."

A list of eligible HoFers
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler, Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O'Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , Clark Griffith , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Ed Barrow , Chief Bender , Tom Connolly , Bill Klem , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin
1974
Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Addie Joss
1979
Hack Wilson
1980
Chuck Klein
1981
Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Travis Jackson
1983
George Kell
1984
Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Bobby Doerr , Ernie Lombardi
1987
Ray Dandridge
1991
Tony Lazzeri
1992
Hal Newhouser
1994
Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Leon Day , Vic Willis
1996
Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Willie Wells
1998
George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Joe Williams
2000
Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Hilton Smith

I forgot to take Ed Barrow , Tom Connolly ,and Bill Klem from the list