First time in a while that I'm the first poster! Of course, my consensus score will suffer again...

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

1) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

2) Alejandro Oms-CF (3): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

3) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (4): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

4) Cupid Childs-2B (5): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

5) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (6): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

6) George Van Haltren-CF/P (7): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

7) Tommy Bridges-P (8): I'm giving him WWII credit, so that pushes him fairly high on my ballot. Still not sure about post-major league credit for him, though. Never the best in his league, but consistently of high quality throughout his career.

8) Jake Beckley-1B (9): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

9) Wally Schang-C (10): I've come to the conclusion that the two Erics have a point about Schang - his stats demand more respect from the electorate. Like Bresnahan, we're not doing a good job of placing catchers in their proper context, IMO. Best AL catcher for 1913, 1914. Best major league catcher for 1919, 1921.

10) Burleigh Grimes-P (11): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

11) Mickey Welch-P (12): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Pete Browning-CF/LF (13): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

13) Frank Chance-1B/C (14): Best first baseman for the first decade of the 20th century. Even more so than Beckley, the Peerless Leader shouldn't be compared with the ABC boys or the post-1920 grouping of first baseman. The cream-of the-crop from Franklin Adam's famous trio. Best major league first baseman for 1903, 1904. 1905, 1906, and 1907 (close in 1908). Best NL first baseman for 1908.

14) Charley Jones-LF/CF (15): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

15) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (16): I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league right fielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

16) Pie Traynor-3B (17): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

17) Tony Mullane-P/OF (18): Talk about forgotten around here. I don't think he's a HoMer, but the guy was up there.

18) Dobie Moore-SS (19): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

19) Vic Willis-P (20): It's fun bringing some of my old ballot stuffers back from the grave. Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

20) Ed Konetchy-1B (n/e): Best first baseman of the Deadball Era, IMO. The uber-stat systems don't measure first base well, so Konetchy is hurt by that. Best major league first baseman for 1910, 1911 and 1916 (very close in 1909 and 1912). Best NL first baseman for 1909, 1912 and 1919.

Medwick, Lemon, Mackey, Rixey, Sisler, Griffith, and Bell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Red Sox look like they may have a chance this year ?
No new notables, so everybody moves up 1 (Ruffing was off ballot), except Rixey slides above Joss and Lemon above Leever.
1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-12-10-9-10-9-8-7-7-8-9-7-7-6-8-8-7-9-8-7-9-8-7-8) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115. Huge 4,494 IP. Better than Lyons with WW1 credit. Wynn’s going in and Ruffing has, and Rixey’s better – the Bert Blyleven of his day.

7. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just below Rixey.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-
6-8-8-7-11-12-13-13-12-12-12-13-14-13-13-13-14-13-11-10-9-11-10-9-10) Clark Griffith credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

10. (N/A-11-12) Bob Lemon 207-128, ERA+ of 119, plus he could hit with OPS+ of 82. Distinctly better than Ferrell, and deserves a year or so’s war credit, since he didn’t start till 25.

11. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B. Not as good as Hartnett, though.

13. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14-14-14) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

14. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back on ballot after a few years just off.

15. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A) Ernie Lombardi 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly, so now a little below. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
OFF MAIN BALLOT
16. (N/A-10-12-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

18. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

19. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

20. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

OFF BALLOT

21. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

22. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

24. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
25. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
26. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
27. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
28. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
29. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
30. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy
31. (N/A) Mickey Vernon 2495 hits plus say 300 for war credit. OPS+116, TB+BB/PA .477, TB+BB/Outs .711
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
34. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
35. (N/A) Heinie Manush
36. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
37. Bob Elliott
38. (N/A) Dick Lundy
39. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
40. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
41. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
42. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
43. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
44. Joe Medwick. Probably a bit better than Joe Judge or Billy Herman, even after WWII discount, but not all that much better. 2471 hits at OPS+ of 134, but a lot of them in the war years. TB+BB/PA .526, TB+BB/Outs .792
45. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Joe Gordon.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Jules Thomas.
62. Wilbur Cooper
63. Bruce Petway.
64. Jack Clements
65. Bill Monroe
66. Jose Mendez
67. Herb Pennock
68. Chief Bender
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Jesse Tannehill
71. Bobby Veach
72. Lave Cross
73. Tommy Leach.
74. Tom York

Bug Holliday greetings to everyone!

1967 Ballot
1. Jose Mendez: Peaktasticness supported by Gary A’s wonderful research.
2. Leroy Matlock: Maybe I’m overrating him, or maybe I’m the only one who knows his inner light? I don’t know, and I’m not sure yet how to figure out how to know.
3. Bucky Walters: Yes, the march of the mid-length, high peak pitchers is one man shorter with Wes on the wall now, but this movement is very much alive.
4. Quincy Trouppe: I’m sorry to say this but unless the Hall of Fame committee knows something we don’t, they totally missed the boat on QT. Best available catcher.
5. Bob Lemon: Thank god Lemon came along to take Ferrell’s place in the queue of mid-length, high-peak pitchers.
6. Charley Jones: Best unenshrined outfielder.
7. Roger Bresnahan: Second best catcher out there. Good peak, wish he’d played more in the latter half of his career.
8. Hugh Duffy: Great flycatcher, splendid batter with power and average and speed and enough walks to make me happy. The Larry Doby of his era? In terms of value, yes.
9. Cupid Childs: High-OBP, high-octane second basemen, best at his position for almost a decade. He’s overdue.
10. Joe Medwick: Second best left fielder on the ballot (he chuckled).
11. Dobie Moore: Absolutely great SS, probably has ten, maybe more years of service including the Wreckers. This guy’s for real.
12. Willard Brown: If he woulda just walked a little bit more---ten more times a year even!---he’d be in like flint already.
13. Biz Mackey: Golden glove, pewter bat. It’s OK, the whole package is what we reward.
14. Wilbur Cooper: Makes it back on board my ballot for the first time since, like, the Hoover administration. Another mid-length, high output pitcher who made a pretty good transition to the lively ball all told.
15. Eppa Rixey: He’s back, he’s stacked, and this time he’s left handed---Red Ruffing 2: The Consistenator (in theatres now for the Hollidays).

16. Burleigh Grimes: I’ve reconned him to this spot. I’m very confused by Grimes. He had a lot of bad inning-eating kind of years, as well as a lot of good staff-ace kind of years. He could move up or down in coming elections.
17. George Sisler
18. Pete Browning
19. Ed Williamson
20. Larry Doyle: First time near my ballot in a while. Hard-hitting keystone cop with enough good glovin’ to stay in the league for a dozen or more years, but not enough to give him a big value boost or to keep him around when his hitting slud a little.

Newbies: Marvin Williams. Based on the MLEs posted on his thread, Marvin Williams is approximately the 24th best 2B of all time---just ahead of Lou Whitaker, just behind Doerr and McPhee.

If there's going to be any suspense it will be if anybody has revised their ballot particularly. Will there be any significantly revised ballots this year?

>10. Joe Medwick: Second best left fielder on the ballot (he chuckled).

Doc, in the future how about this:

10. Joe Medwick: Second best left fielder on the ballot (ducks).

Will there be any significantly revised ballots this year?

Aren't you expecting a sudden flood of support for Frank Chance?? :)

Aren't you expecting a sudden flood of support for Frank Chance?? :)

Hey, he keeps inching up my ballot. Your campaign is not in vain, Tom! :-)

I'm confident that my top three have been overlooked and pretty sure that I like the next three or four better than the remaining candidates. After that, it is hopelessly close. I think there is very little difference between number 8 and number 35.

(1) Moore (2nd)--George Sisler's offensive value and defense somewhere between Ernie Banks and Cal Ripken. One of the top 50 7 or 8-year runs of All-Time. (PHOM)

(2) Van Haltren (5th)--Put up about 380 season-length adjusted WS in 25-30 WS chunks. Consistently excellent for 14 years in a difficult one-league environment. Good PCL work on both ends of his career. What is not to like? (PHOM)

(3) Rixey (4th)--Handful of All-Star seasons and one of the 25 best careers for a 20th-century hurler. Very deserving. (PHOM)

(4) Oms (6th)--Subjective and objective reviews converge; he was on the Sam Crawford/Paul Waner level, though with a slightly shorter career. (PHOM)

(5) Duffy (9th)--Slides up a few positions as I downgrade other guys slightly. His skills were incredibly valuable in his time and place. (PHOM)

(6) Lemon (7th)-- Fact that his peak numbers aren't that much stronger than Rixey or Grimes gives pause, but they ARE better and fit with the other mid-career pitchers we have elected. (PHOM)

(7) Roush (10th)-- I know he missed a lot of games and played in a relatively weak league, but he's a solid CF with a relatively long career who consistently ranked among the top few guys in his league in OPS+. (PHOM)

(7A Billy Herman--PHOM this year)

(8) Sisler (11th)--Not that different than guys like Chance and Keller who rank ten or twenty spots below, but small differences matter. Might move down in future elections. (PHOM)

(9)Trouppe (8th)--Still trying to get a handle on the playing time and positions questions. (PHOM this year)

(10) Childs (13th)--2B who hit like this and are league-average fielders don'r grown on trees. (PHOM)

(10A Frank Grant)

(11) Gordon (12th)--See above.

(11A Joe Start)

(11B Bill Terry)

(12) Beckley (14th)--Uniqueness is usually an indicator of value. What holds Beckley back for me is the fact that his best seasons were in weak multi-league eras whereas he struggled when the game contracted in the 1890s.

(13) Medwick (16th)--Probably the player in this project most overrated by WS, but some portion of the extra value WS assigns to him as a result of his team's success and their ability to exceed Pythagoras is real value. Plus his peak was genuinely excellent. Will eventually make my PHOM, so I don't mind if he goes in now.

(14) Mendez (15th)--I have him with about 3100 IP and an ERA+ of around 120. That and his bat make him similar to a number of our electees, though the IP were less valuable for him than they were for Ferrell and Lemon.

(15) Elliott (18th)--The more I look, the more I like. Could really hit.

(15A Stan Hack)

(16) Doerr (17th)--Very close to Childs and Gordon. I tend to prefer their A- bats and solid gloves to his B+ bat and good glove, but you mileage may vary.

(17) Sewell (19th)--Owes his status as the best SS of the 1920s to the color line.

(17A Sam Thompson)

(18) Bob Johnson (20th)--Mediwick without the peak or the team success.

(19) Wally Schang (unranked/about 30th)--Vaulted up my rankings when I compared his career numbers to Bresnahan and realized that (given his exta AB) he actually had more career OFFENSIVE value than Bresnahan. The problem, of course, is that Wally, like Roger, was ordinary with the glove (in the top five in his league in defensive WS only five times, as high as third only once).

(20) Grimes (unranked/about 30th)--I find him very confusing. If you strip out the years at the ends of his careers, he won a ton of games with a very high winning percentage and a handful of all-star seasons. On the other hand, his ERA+ remains fairly ordinary even stripping out those seasons.

(21) Chance
(22) Ryan
(23) Kiner
(24) Willard Brown
(25) Bresnahan
(26) Walters
(27) Charley Jones
(28) Stephens
(29) Redding
(30) Leach

(30A Max Carey)

(31) Wilbur Cooper
(32) Mays
(33) Doyle
(34) Shocker
(35) Keller
(36) Griffith--Not enough innings per season.
(37) Monroe
(38) Cool Papa Bell--Not enough offense.
(39) Welch
(39A Faber)
(40) Cravath
(41) Mackey--Not enough offense.

Red Sox look like they may have a chance this year

Hindsight is 20/20 of course. At the time of this election it would appear to be an "Impossible Dream".

1967 ballot. Digging into the backlog. I did move people around my ballot but it was in the back half of it. Oh, and the Frank Chance flood begins!

1. Joe Medwick (2). Better player than a person.

2. Clark Griffith(3). Based on Chris J’s run support index material Griffith’s adjusted W/L is 233-150. That seems pretty good.

3. Dick Redding (4). CANNONBALL!!! Pitched in multiple leagues, each time having success. He’s the NeL pitcher I think we’re missing.

4. Jimmy Ryan (5). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

5. Bobby Doerr (6). Middle IF who is slightly above many others in the running for HOM. Billy Herman minus a little.

6. Bob Johnson (7). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

7. George Van Haltren (15). What an interesting career. Started off pitching, then excellent hitter during the 1890s, into the early 1900s where he played at the end in the PCL.

8. Bob Lemon (8). With him I bow to the mighty Wins category – 8 out of 9 years top 3 in the American League. Egads!

9. Biz Mackey (11). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

10. Rube Waddell (13). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

11. Hugh Duffy (11). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. Duffy has showed up occasionally before so I’m not upset to see him mentioned again.

12. Edd Roush (17). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

13. Cool Papa Bell (14). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

14. Cupid Childs (21). One of the top 2Bmen of the 1890s. Career length lacking a little but pretty good peak.

15. Frank Chance (16). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. All folks down this way on the ballot have flaws so the playing time issue is lessened at least for a ballot mention.

If we’re still giving 20 on the ballot:

16. Dobie Moore (18). Probably the SS from the 20’s if I had to choose one. Jennings type of candidate if the stories are correct.

17. Eppa Rixey (19). Lost a little time to war but still a fine career candidate.

18. Spotswood Poles (20). NeL OF from way back. These guys are always a bit on the murky side when ranking. His record is indicates he hung around the level of these other folks.

19. Tony Mullane (22). Somehow his record got discounted into oblivion. Quite the pitcher who liked to jump from team to team.

20. Wally Berger (27). Impressive peak candidate. Had one of the great years on one of the worst teams ever.

21-25: Leach, Easter, Browning, Byrd, Mendez
26-30: F Jones, Sewell, Bridges, Veach, McGraw
31-35: Kiner, Cicotte, Lundy, Keller, Mays
36-40: Willard Brown, Sisler, Trout, Gordon, Willis
41-45: D. Leonard, Roy Thomas, Joss, Ben Taylor, Elliott
46-50: Trouppe, Shocker, Stephens, Beckley, Cuyler

Top Returnees: Beckley (#49) and Sisler (#36) – one peak, one career but neither have the goods for the ballot. I’ve re-examined and found their placement about right for my liking.

New guys: Nothing noteworthy. Oh, I mean there are some players to remember fondly but they won't be getting any HOM plaques.

Want to get this ballot in early as I still have two final papers due this week...

1967 Ballot
Doby Moore and Larry Doby make my PHOM

1. Cupid Childs (2, PHOM 1939) - Becoming my new pet candidate though I dont' have the feelings for him that I did for Hughie. Best 2B of the 19th century, high peak and decent length for his era and position.

2. Joe Medwick (3, PHOM 1960) - He seperates himself from the prime and career crowd with his great three year peak and he does the same from the peak crowd with a nice long prime. I believe he deserves some credit for his team's ability to beat their pythag.

3. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM 1964) - Best of the 1890's CF trio based on a superior peak.

4. Bob Lemon (5, PHOM 1965) - Slightly worse than Ferrell, but a substantial peak should get him in this year.

5. Dick Redding (6, PHOM 1965) - With Ruffing selection last year (which I disgree with)a nd all the clamoring for Rixey this year (whom I dont' disgaree with) what about Redding? I think he was definitely better than both pitchers. 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era.

6. Charlie Keller (7, PHOM 1966) - Best peak on the board, had many MVP level seasons then add 1.5 years for war credit.

7. Dobie Moore (8, 1967) - The Black Jennings makes it in seven years after Hughie does. I don't think Moore's peak was as high but he definitely belongs in the HOM nonetheless.

8a. Larry Doby (PHOM 1967)
8. Bucky Walters (9) - Was bypassed by Doby as I want to make sure I am not overrating mid length-high peak pitchers. Next in for my PHOM.

9a. Earl Averill
9. Ralph Kiner (10) - I dont' think his peak as as impressive as Keller's. Most likely a PHOMer in a year or two, however.

10a. Bill Terry
10. Clark Griffith (11) - Best 19th century we have yet to induct, much better than Welch.

11. Joe Gordon (13) - Slightly better than Bobby Doerr, nice seven year prime.

12. Pete Browning (14) - You could argue that Browning had a better peak than Keller, however with quality of competition factored in I would take King Kong over the Louisville Slugger.

13. Eppa Rixey (15) - Better than Ruffing. Pitched a lot of innings and pitched them well, also gets about 2 seasons of WWII credit.

14. Bobby Doerr (16) - Nearly identicla with Joe Gordon, though slightly les peak/prime. That there are two players between Gordon and Doerr should shouldyou how tightly bunched the bottom of my ballot is.

15. Quincey Trouppe (12) - Yes he happened to fall 3 spots. I wasn't taking his time as an OF/3B into account when giving him credit fo rhi high peak. I understand that gettign WS at OF/3B is just as hard as getting WS at catcher an that his versatility should give him some extra points, but I had been under the assumption, for whatever reason, that he was cathing 140 game a year, only catching say 110-120 means that he deserves less of the catcher bonus I give in seasons. Still much better tha Mackey

16. Al Rosen
17. Dizzy Dean
18a. Enos Slaughter
18. George Van Haltren
19. George Sisler
20. Alejandro Oms

21-25 Waddell, Bresnahan, Berger, Mendez, Elliot
26-30 Cravath, Brown, Newcombe, Willis, Mackey
31-35 Roush(Carey), Bell, Lundy, Rizzuto, Monroe
36-40 (Ruffing)Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker, Johnson
41-45 Leach, Thomas, McGraw, Stephens, Wilson
46-50 Chance, Traynors, Burns, Cicotte, Taylor
51-55 Ryan, Klein, Schang, Bancroft, Easter
56-60 Scales, Jones, Gomex, Mays, Grimes

Required Disclosures:
George Sisler is just off the ballot likely to return one day
Mackey and Bell are both in the 30's, I don't really think they are HOMers based on their respective lack of a peak.

newbies:
Haven't gotten the chance to really look at Marvin Williams due to finals, but I do like his post-play, though no one succeeds in Atlanta......probably better than Scales, which will get him into the top 50 when I take a look at him.

1967 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. Unfairly grouped with Kiner and Keller, since the Gladiator had more seasons.

2. Dick Redding We’re missing his best years.

3. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding.

4. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

5. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

6. Cupid Childs Fine 1890’s representative.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

8.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

10. Tommy Bridges Seems to be a lesser Whitey Ford. Durability seems to be an issue, but maybe those late 30’s early 40’s Tigers were revolutionary in protecting arms. They sure had a lot of good young pitchers (Bridges, Trucks, Trout, Newhouser, Rowe, Benton, Hutchinson, Auker) during this time, and maybe realized (like the aughts Cubs) that they could defy convention and use a few more starters then most teams.

11. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

12. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

13. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Joe MedwickHad enough to be a HOMer.

15. Clark Griffith Welcome back, Old Fox.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. George Sisler

17. Cool Papa Bell

18. Willard Brown

19. Ben Taylor

20. Eppa Rixey

Bob Lemon – I see him as virtually identical with Bucky Walters. Close but not enough.

Marvin Williams – Doesn’t seem to have it.

1967 ballot
Kiki Cuyler and Lloyd Waner (for all those that are questioning this decision remember he was a singles hitter and you all know my opinion on that) make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
5. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
6. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Bob Lemon weaker league keeps him down (made my personal HoM in 1964)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Joe Medwick 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1956)
15. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
19. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (makes my personal HoM this year)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (makes my personal HoM this year)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits
35. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Eppa Rixey I don’t find anything special in most of the 20’s pitchers

Ted makes the ballot, but no other new candidate even comes close.


1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Joe Medwick - Some really big impressive years in the first half of his career. Enough career value for me to push him up this high on my ballot.

3. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

4. Bob Lemon - Top 3 in wins 8 out of 9 years, top 10 in wins 9 years straight.

5. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

6. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

7. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman. Enough career to make my ballot.

8. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

9. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

10. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

11. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

12. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

13. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away. I did decide to move him up quite a bit, but I also felt the need to move Schang and Rixey down on my ballot after taking another look at them (yet again).

14. Eppa Rixey - Not as excited about him as I once was, but he's hanging around the bottom of my ballot.

15. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

16. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

17. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

18. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan

19. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

20. Edd Roush -

Ted makes the ballot, but no other new candidate even comes close.

So where did you place Big Klu, Adam? :-D

Christmas vacation impending; ballot in early.

1967 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Clark Griffith (2) [9]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog. Seems like I bring this up every 2 weeks….
2-Joe Sewell (3) [23]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP, AND very good defense. Y’all gonna dis Alan Trammell?
3-George Van Haltren (4) [8]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
4-Bob Lemon (6) [4]
I’m apparently with the consensus here. Smidgen of WWII credit added.
5-Cool Papa Bell (9) [10]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
6-Eppa Rixey (11) [6]
Good discussion last week on Eppa. Upon reflection, I was penalizing him more than I should have for his ‘weak’ league. However, it IS a factor that shouldn’t be totally ignored.
7-Bucky Walters (7) [21]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
8-Joe Gordon (10) [22]
Nudges out Doerr; I might feel differently if Doerr had helped his team over the top in at least one of the many close pennant races that they lost.
9-Biz Mackey (12) [5]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
10-John McGraw (8) [39]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
11-Willard Brown (13) [16]
Close comp to Averill, who I assess as one of our weakest HoMers to date. Luke Easter MIGHT be Willard Brown, but I’m less uncertain of Brown’s career. Same goes for Mr. Oms.
12-Frank Chance (14) [47], and
13-Jake Beckley (15) [11], and
14-George Sisler (off) [7]
See my comments last week on the 1B trio. No, I really don't think we ought to induct Mr. Chance this week; I merely believe he ought to be on more than 5 ballots.
15- Ducky Medwick (off) [3]
Buenos dias; ya finally made my ballot! :)

---------------------
16 Kiner
17 Monroe
18 Childs
19 Rizzuto
20 Doerr
----------------
21-24 would be: Bresnahan, Traynor, Bob Johnson, Moore

Others near the ballot:
Larry Doyle ….excellent hitter for a 2Bman
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Tommy Leach ...Pie Traynor clone almost
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher for a while. Not as good as Ferrell.
Jose Mendez …Dean clone.
Mickey Welch ...Rixey clone almost.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
Alejandro Oms … another fine NegL Ofer
Pete Browning … almost Ralph Kiner

Ron--

You say that Browning had more "seasons" than Kiner. While it is literally true that he put on the uniform during more different seasons, they played exactly the same number of "seasons" if you calculate the fraction of their teams' games they played each year and add them up. Kiner played 9.52 years' worth of games in his 10 seasons while Browning played 9.54 years worth of games in his 13 seasons. So, their careers were of equal lengths even without giving Kiner any war credit.

(Keller is at 7.86 seasons. If you assume that he would have played every game in 1944 and 1945 absent the war--which he obviously wouldn't have--he'd be at 9.56, even with Kiner and Browning. Relaistically, he'd be at about 9.35, which is in the same general vicinity.)

John Franco - a 137 ERA+ in 22 seasons! :)

Hack and Lyons join my PHoM. Everyone moves up, no interesting newcomers. Everyone's very close, not much difference between Cravath at #20 and Gordon at #1.

1)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
2)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
3)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
4)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
5)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
6)Medwick-- PHoM in 1960.
7)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
8)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
9)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too. PHoM in 1966.
10)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
11)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
12)Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit
13)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.
14)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
15)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career. PHoM in 1939.
16)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.
17)Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. I see 15 obvious catching electees: Gibson, Bench, Fisk, Carter, Hartnett, Dickey, Piazza, Berra, Simmons, Ewing, Cochrane, Campanella, Parrish, Rodriguez, Santop. I’m an advocate for what I see as the next tier: Freehan, Munson, and Porter will get strong consideration on my ballot too. You can’t have a baseball team without a catcher. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL.
18)Keller
19)Kiner
20)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play. PHoM in 1928.

Bob Lemon #53, ERA+ not very impressive, and played for good teams.
Sisler--#81, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--#73, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Griffith In my PHoM since 1912 but off the ballot at #27.
Childs--Steep discount for his domination of the 1890 AA, otherwise he would be higher. #51.

The first oddity that comes becomes I compare players only to other eligible players. That is no big deal for my regular ballot, but sometimes it means that my PHoM rankigns don't match my HoM rankings.

This year I induct someone into my PHoM, who is definitely NOT the next person on my list if you look at my HoM ballot.

PHoM: Hilton Smith & Earl Averill

HoM

1. George Van Haltren (3,2,2)

One day, George, one day...

2. Eppa Rixey (5,6,4)

3. Joe Medwick (4,5,5)

4. Jake Beckley (7,9,6)

5. Mickey Welch (6,7,9)

6. Willard Brown (8,4,3)

7. Biz Mackey (9,10,8)

8. Cool Papa Bell (10,8,7)

9. Dobie Moore (11,11,11)

10. George Sisler (12,14,12)

11. Tommy Leach (14,12,14)

12. Hugh Duffy (13,15,13)

13. Edd Roush (15,15,15)

14. Sam Rice (19,19,x)

15. Quincy Trouppe (18,18,x)

16. Clark Griffith (16,x,x)

17. Cupid Childs (20,x,x)

18. Jack Powell (x,x,x)

19. Pete Browning (x,x,x)

20. Jimmy Ryan (17,20,x)

21-25. Kiner, Lemon, H.Smith, Streeter, White
26-30. Doyle, Strong, Willis, Gleason, Doerr
31-35. Greene, Mullane, Redding, Sewell, McCormick

I'm not looking forward to having to explain Cupid Childs every year. He wouldn't make my top 100.

Here goes:

1. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

2. Cool Papa Bell – It seems likely he would have exceeded 3000 hits with tremendous speed and great defense in a key position.

3. Eppa Rixey – see Grimes comment.
4. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Rixey at 3 and Griffith at 14, which results in 7 pitchers on my ballot. Both Rixey and Grimes are among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (17) or Schang (29).

8. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

9. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

10. Joe Medwick – 10 time all-star, great 1935-1938 peak. Edges ahead of the outfield glut.

11. Bob Lemon – a bit of a ringer for Ferrell, who was one spot ahead when elected. I take Ferrell’s hitting advantage over Lemon’s slight pitching advantage.

12. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

If I could choose the size of our Hall, this would be my in out line.

13. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

14. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. I’ve decided to slot him right behind the two short career pitching balloters, though he could just as easily be ahead of them. He is barely better than Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin. It is tough to separate the wheat from the chaff among the pitchers.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

16. Jimmy Ryan – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining.
17. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher.
18. Sam Rice -- 2987 hits speaks to me.
19. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.
20. Pie Traynor -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

Rusty Priske - your ballot is as almost as perfect as it could possibly be; well done!

Maybe GVH or Duffy will finally get in after all this time in limbo; Jake Beckley as well (I know karlmangus is rooting hard for Jake; has been for 50+ years).

Yay! Reconsideration is complete, and there is a little movement. In the end, the question "who would I rather see in the HOM" was used for close calls, and Clark Griffith ended up a big winner there, as did the returning-to-my-ballot Fred Dunlap. Losers include Dizzy Dean, who on reconsideration dropped like a stone.

Non-ballot winners include Fielder Jones, who I've voted for many times and probably will again, and Eppa Rixey/Dolph Luque, which is no surprise as WARP seems to have corrected 20s NL pitchers quite a bit. Silver King also leaps into my top 50 (love that peak).

Garver (peak!) just *barely* misses my top 50.

1. Dobie Moore
2. Bob Lemon
3. Jose Mendez
4. Bobby Doerr
5. Clark Griffith - Best player from the 1890s left, by a wide margin I'd say. Peak, prime and career, a little of each, I love him.
6. Joe Sewell
7. Bucky Walters
8. Willard Brown
9. Joe Gordon
10. Quincy Trouppe
11. George Sisler
12. Bob Johnson
13. Dick Redding
14. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.
15. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.

16. Biz Mackey
17. Fielder Jones
18. Joe Medwick
19. Dizzy Trout
20. Bob Elliot

21-25: Shocker, Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms, Bond
26-30: Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock, D. Dimaggio, Uhle
31-35: Grimes, Scales, Kiner, B. Taylor, Rixey
36-40: Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton, Poles
41-45: Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays, Clift
46-50: Childs, Bartell, Klein, Byrd, Ryan

Medwick: 18. Like him, just not as good as Sisler.
Mackey: 16. Like him a lot, but his career wasn't so long, so he just misses the ballot. Will make it someday very soon, though.
Rixey: 35. Still not enough peak, but I like his prime enough now that he's in the top 50. Still don't like him as a choice for election.
Van Haltren: 27. Not enough peak, though I have no objections to him being elected.
Bell: Outside of top 50. No measurable peak, I accept I may be wrong, but the numbers I have used for all other NLers simply don't recommend him. At all.
Beckley: Outside of top 50. Still no peak.
Childs: 46. Not quite a long enough peak, prime, or career to stand out.

So what kind of year will the Cardinals have this year? A good chunk of the aging team that won in '64 is gone. The big move was a year ago - Ray Sadecki to the Giants for Orlando Cepeda. For a guy who's supposed to be a big hitter, the year Cepeda had last year wasn't that overwhelming. Brock, the revelation of 1964, has settled in as a pretty good player and one who's serious about the craft of basestealing, but we now know that that .348 in a hundred games of 1964 is just not who he is. And boy, for a leadoff hitter, he sure strikes out a lot, doesn't he?

The only significant move over the winter was an odd one - the journeyman 3B, Charley Smith, to the Yankees, for the famous but probably over-the-hill Roger Maris. Maris just hit .233/.307/.382 last year - a long way down from his MVP days. Are they contemplating moving Mike Shannon from RF to 3B? That hardly ever works. Look at the wreckage the Giants have created trying that kind of stuff.

Bob Gibson and Al Jackson looked good last year, but they're both over 30. Lots of young pitchers with live arms around: Briles, Jaster, Carlton. But young pitchers do tend to be inconsistent; it would be too much to ask for all of them to come through.

This is basically the same club that finished 6th last year. Above .500, but still 6th. (Everyone beat up on the Cubs and the Mets.) The Dodgers were the champs last year, but they just got hit by a lightning bolt: Koufax is retiring. That changes a lot for them, but one would now think that the Giants are the class of the league, with McCovey, Mays, Marichal, and Perry. The Cardinals? As a fan, you always have hope, but is there a good reason to expect this year to be much different from last year? Maybe if the young pitchers all come through? Maybe if Flood bounces back from the awful year he had last year? Maybe if Cepeda or Maris remember who they used to be?

1967 ballot. Doyle in an elect-me slot and Vernon on the ballot aren't going to do wonders for my consensus score, but then the group as a whole is likely to set a new record low for consensus.

1. Joe Medwick (5, 4, 4, 5, 4) His value shape is rather unusual. Perhaps Bill Terry? I see those two as pretty close to each other. For three years, he hit like one of the greats, but the rest of his career falls far below that.
2. Larry Doyle (4, 3, 3, 4, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. George Van Haltren (5, 5, 6, 5, 5) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
4. Eppa Rixey (7, 6, 6, 7, 6) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.
5. Ralph Kiner (8, 7, 7, 8, 7) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
6. Joe Sewell (10, 9, 9, 9, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
7. Quincy Trouppe (17, 16, 17, 9, 9) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
8. Biz Mackey (12, 11, 12, 11, 10) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Cochrane and Hartnett didn't have the hitting careers needed for election as a corner player.
9. Jose Mendez (13, 12, 13, 12, 11) A peak-value pitching candidate.
10. Dick Redding (14, 13, 14, 13, 12) A career-value pitching candidate.
11. Jake Beckley (11, 10, 10, 14, 13) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
12. Bob Lemon (--, 15, 15, 14) Ferrell, Lemon, and Walters form a pretty tight group. I think Ferrell is probably the best of the group, but not by a huge margin. And Walters is right there, too. But I don't see him ahead of Ruffing.
13. Bob Elliott (15, 14, 16, 17, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
14. Mickey Vernon (---, 16, 16) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak. My new oddity vote
15. Willard Brown (18, 17, 17, 17, 15) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.

16. Hugh Duffy (19, 18, 18, 19, 18)
17. Bucky Walters (20, 19, 19, 20, 19) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's.
18. Phil Rizzuto (21, 20, 20, 21, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
19. Cupid Childs (22, 21, 21, 22, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Joe Gordon (23, 22, 22, 23, 22) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.

21. Tommy Bridges (24, 23, 23, 24, 23) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
22. Cool Papa Bell (25, 24, 24, 25, 24) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
23. Edd Roush (26, 25, 25, 26, 25) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
24. George Sisler (27, 26, 26, 27, 26) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
25. Vern Stephens (28, 27, 27, 28, 27)
26. Bobby Doerr (29, 28, 28, 29, 28)
27. Dobie Moore (30, 29, 29, 30, 29) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (-, 30, 30, -, 30)
29. Frank Chance (out of top 30 since 1961) All of this week's "rediscovery" is stuff I always knew. A great, great player - when he was in the lineup, which is the problem.
30. Rube Waddell (out of top 30 since 1961)

I haven't worked up the details on Kluszewski yet, but he doesn't look like a particularly likely ballot candidate.

That changes a lot for them, but one would now think that the Giants are the class of the league, with McCovey, Mays, Marichal, and Perry.

True, they've got the stars, but they usually have a few "HACKING MASS" MVP candidates on their team as well. Incredibly, the team OPS+ for SFG last 'year' was just 95 despite great years from Mays, McCovey and Hart. Lanier & Fuentes have got to be one of the weakest hitting double play combinations of all time.

Since my team has Dal Maxvill, I don't make a habit of pointing fingers at the hitting of other teams' shortstops. At least Maxvill's glove is for real.

This team's construction is a extreme example of the "up the middle" theory of building a defense. Maxvill is great at SS, and Javier's got a DP pivot. Flood is spectacular in CF, even if he's got arm trouble and can't throw. But Brock is awfully error-prone in LF, Cepeda at 1B has made a career of being indifferent to the demands of defense, and there is that OF-to-3B conversion in progress.

Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Best first baseman from 1880 – 1920.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Loses out to Beckley as best post-1880 thru 1920 1st baseman due to playing time.

5. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s, and in the top 10 of his 30 year era.

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. EPPA RIXEY, P. 24 POW, 99 WARP1, 217 RSAA, 229 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 115 ERA+ in 4,495 innings. Closest comp is probably Red Faber.

8. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

9. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

10. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

11. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

12. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Best of the outfield glut.

13.BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

14.BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him just ahead of Childs this time.

15.CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

16. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

17. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

18. BOB LEMON, P. 34 POW, 93 WARP1, 180 RSAA, 162 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 119 ERA+ in 2,849 innings. He was very good for awhile, and he could hit.

19.TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

20. GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
NONE

RETURNEES:

JOE MEDWICK, LF. 26 POW, .638 OWP, 267 RCAP, 96 WARP1, 8,142 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Bob Johnson is better by almost every measuring stick.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 19 POW, 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

JOE GORDON, 2B. .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

Ted makes the ballot, but no other new candidate even comes close.That's what I get for recycling ballots in a hurry....Nods to Klu though for at least getting his name mentioned as that's as close as he'll get to my ballot.

Voting early this week as I'm off on vacation tomorrow morning! Yippee!

The Braves-in-Milwaukee experiment is over already. Two pennants, one WS, three all-time greats and the team slipped to 9th in attendance in less than ten years. There's probably a story behind why that happened so quickly, but I don't know it right now. The team will now try its luck in the growing city of Atlanta.

The Dodgers won another pennant in another close race. They surged ahead of the Giants and Pirates with early-to-mid September winning streaks of five and eight games and held on after that. In what would turn out to be his final season, Sandy Koufax led the staff with career bests in Wins, ERA and ERA+. Drysdale had a bit of an off year, but was picked up by Osteen, big-eared rookie Don Sutton, and off-season reliever pick-up Phil Regan who went 14-1 with a 203 ERA+ in the pen. The offense, buoyed by sophomore Jim Lefebvre and Ron Fairly, was respectable given their park with an OPS+ of 101.

In the AL, the Yankees continued their fall from grace finishing dead last thanks partly to underperforming Pythag by nine games and partly to a bit of league parity (70 wins normally doesn't get you last place). The defending champion Twins slumped out of the gate due to injuries/declines by Allison, Battey and Versalles. The big story was the Orioles. Picking up Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, Dick Simpson and Jack Baldschun paid big dividends as Frank won the Triple Crown with a monster 199 OPS+ year. The O's raced out to a big lead and coasted to an easy pennant.

In the World Series, the O's swept the Dodgers thanks to two homers by Frank Robinson and shutouts by 23 year-old Dave McNally, 20 year-old Palmer and 21 year-old Wally Bunker. Those three pitchers who had relied more on run support in the regular season with ERA+'s of 105, 96 and 78, but managed to hold the Dodgers scoreless for the final three games of the Series. This was the first championship for the Browns/Orioles franchise and with five starting position players under 25 and such a young staff we might see a few more.


1967 Ballot

1. Clark Griffith (2) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
2. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
3. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
4. Biz Mackey (5) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft sport for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
5. John McGraw (6) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
6. Dick Redding (7) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Ralph Kiner (8) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
8. Gavvy Cravath (9) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
9. Joe Gordon (10) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
10. Charley Jones (11) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
11. George Sisler (12) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
12. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
13. Joe Sewell (14) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
14. Joe Medwick (16) -- Haven't voted for him in quite a while (maybe not at all). He was 16th last week and took a pretty good look at him this week to make sure he deserves my vote. He passed. His three year peak is boosted by extremely high durability (avg 155G), bumping him ahead of indian bob.
15. Bob Johnson (15) -- High OBP slugger stuck on the post-fire-sale Connie Mack clubs. WS numbers are depressed by his teams constant underperforming of Pythag.

16-20. Lemon, BElliott, Doerr, Rixey, Rosen,
21-25. Chance, Lombardi, Beckley, WBrown, Browning,
26-30. Welch, DMoore, Leach, Waddell, Newcombe,
31-35. Roush, BWalters, CPBell, Rizzuto, VStephens

1967 ballot, our 70th
and yes, as always some players shifted around, up to a half-dozen places

I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. EPPA RIXEY - Vaults to the top of the heap. A very misunderstood career. People found him wanting, compared to other guys with that incredible number of IP. But pretend he's a shorter-career guy, and suddenly he looks better than the Ferrells or the Lemons. Plus he's got his own solid collection of top 10 IP finishes, so we don't have a Griffith situation here. Eppa missed his age 27 season to WW I (and much of the age 28 season), and I wonder how many have accounted for that, either. Better than Ruffing over full career context, too.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - It's time.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "quite good" is almot unique. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey.

3. DICK REDDING - I need only add he and Bell to round out my Negro League contingent, pending further analysis. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that. I agree that this is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment.
4. GEORGE SISLER - Climbs 3 places this year. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
5. BOB LEMON - Seven straight years in the top 4 in IP, and in four of those years he was right there with the best "rate" pitchers as well. Also a very good hitter; how much that is worth to you may determine the fate of a lot of these pitchers. The recent discussion on that has been fascinating.
6. COOL PAPA BELL - Climbs five places this week, and this is conceding that park and steals led him to be quite overrated. But if we just 'rated' him, he'd have been in the HOM 20 years ago. Discounting the myth doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
7. CUPID CHILDS - This is the 1890s guy I want most for Christmas. A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven other 120 OPS+s here.
8. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than Medwick; I like mashers like this, and a little war credit. Is getting underrated by the electorate.
9. GAVVY CRAVATH - Continues to make a late charge on the Howie ballot, after 20+ years of resistance. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. I think Gadfly's estimates on the Cravath thread are way too kind to him, BUT I hope people don't reject his whole case on that grounds. Doesn't need a lot of minor-league credit to beat Medwick. Comparison to Kiner is even more fascinating.
10. PETE BROWNING - This is the 1880s guy I want most for Christmas, but he slipped behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers this time. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Almost would be No. 2 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
11. CLARK GRIFFITH - Refuses to depart my ballot. Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
12. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot. Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
13. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed on my radar last week and goes onto my ballot this time. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, and other borderline HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. One 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
14. JOE MEDWICK - Very nice 5, 8, 10-year numbers. But look closer, and it's basically a (not-quite) Kiner-esque career with a few part-time seasons on the fringes.
15. ROGER BRESNAHAN - I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Has not been on my ballot in many years.

EXPERIMENTAL 16-20
16. MICKEY WELCH - Will return to the ballot someday. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
17. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Yes, the three levels of league-average SPing are worth something. I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into the top 15.
18. JOE GORDON - Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison. A good Gordon argument might put him on next year's ballot.
19. DOBIE MOORE - I had Jennings 15th when he was elected; I'm more convinced here on the short career part than on the 'best player in baseball' part, at this point.
20. JOE SEWELL - Another guy who I rightly dissed during ferocious ballot competition, but he claws his way back when the pool thins a bit.
(Bobby Doerr is No. 21, Hugh Duffy No. 22.)

TOP 10 RETURNEE STILL SNUBBED
BIZ MACKEY - I like the Sisler and Deacon McGuire comparisons in his thread. Sisler - one good half-career, one 'not worth much' half-career. McGuire - long career as a C, but played not always that often or that well. Unfortunately for Biz, the latter seems more on the money. He's fallen off my radar, as fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth?

1.Alejandro Oms
2.Eppa Rixey

I think Larry Doby is a fair comp for Oms. They were the same type of players, hitting about 140 OPS+ with excellent CF defense in their primes. Both had long strings of 25+WS (nine for Oms, eight for Doby), and they had reasonably similar career WS (312 for Doby w/ NeL credit; Oms projected at 340). Doby had a higher peak, Oms had a better career. If you had Doby high on your ballot, take another look at Alejandro.

Rixey’s 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, and Jack Powell are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

3.Jake Beckley
4.Wally Schang

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons in between where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher. Career .393 OBP in a .349 era.

5.Rube Waddell
6.Jose Mendez
7.Dobie Moore

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

It’s become pretty clear to me that Moore is the best shortstop available. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot three decades ago.

8.Cool Papa Bell
9. Tommy Leach
10. Joe Gordon

Bell’s projected OBP is not as high as I would like. OTOH, his projections also give him nearly 3700 hits and God-only-knows how many stolen bases, which means he created a crapload of runs over his career. We presume with his speed that he also prevented a lot of runs with his glove. His contemporaries pretty unanimously thought that he was one of the best players in the game. That’s a lot of weight to counter his OBP. I wonder if he shouldn’t be even higher on my ballot.

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot except for Van Haltren, and Van Haltren’s numbers are distorted by his pitching stint. Looking back over the years, I’m surprised by how many times I’ve been able to write that. Good hitting, great defense at *two* key positions.

Gordon had some very good years with the bat and glove. While I do not project a peak for him during WWII, I agree with those who think he may have missed a couple of great seasons.

11.Bob Lemon
12. Ned Williamson
13.Bobby Doerr
14.Biz Mackey
15.George Sisler

Lemon and Doerr are similar to Ferrell and Gordon; their peaks are not as high, so they land a little below those two. Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available over seventy years after he retired. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value. Mackey fits well into this group: long career, outstanding defense, could hit some.

Sisler made my pHoM in 1945, fell off the ballot sometime in the early 1950s, and now makes a semi-triumphal return. Averaged 161 OPS+ and forty stolen bases per season between 1917-1922.

16.Roger Bresnahan
17.Ralph Kiner
18.Clark Griffith
19.Gavvy Cravath
20.Joe Medwick

Mackey had a better career and peak than Bresnahan, so I’ve placed Biz just ahead, even though Roger had a longer prime. Still, I’m becoming more convinced that Bresnahan belongs in the Hall.

Kiner, and Cravath have similar resumes: huge peak seasons with short careers that just keep them just off the ballot for now. Kiner’s seasons of 184, 184, and 173 OPS+ really impress me, but not enough to vote for him yet.

Griffith was a mainstay on my ballot for years, but in my re-evaluation I decided he doesn’t have the peak or the career of the pitchers in front of him. Medwick will not be a horrible pick for the Hall, but he doesn’t have the peak of the guys in front of him, or the kind of career that I like.

21.George Van Haltren

This is actually a big jump for Van Haltren, whom I ranked 31st last week. I think he gets to much credit from the electorate for his pitching, but he did do a lot of things well for a long time.

22-25: Cupid Childs, Dick Redding, Bob Elliott, Larry Doyle
26-30: Edd Roush, Pete Browning, Mike Tiernan, Bob Johnson, Vic Willis

In the AL, the Yankees continued their fall from grace finishing dead last

A half-game behind the Red Sox.

Red Sox fans celebrated their third finish ahead of the Yanks since 1918 (not hard to guess the other two seasons). In retrospect, the Yankees were just playing the spoilers as usual, preventing the Sox from being the first team to go from last to first since Louisville in the 1890 AA. ;-)

1967

1. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. Just how big is your AA discount? (1927)

2. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

5. Clark Griffith (6)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

6. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

8. Cool Papa Bell (9)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

9. Eppa Rixey (10)--Griffith’s got a big edge in peak, and his career value doesn’t make up the difference. It does give him the edge over the short/career/high peak pitchers though.(1960)

10. Hugh Duffy (11)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

11. George Van Haltren (12)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually.

12. Carl Mays (13)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell.

13. Biz Mackey (14)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage.

14. Willard Brown (15)--Big career advantage over Sewell.

15. Joe Sewell (16)--Overrated, underrated. Tomato, potato. The gap between him and #8 Doyle is tiny, despite the 9 ballot spots.

16. Edd Roush (17)--I’ve always prefered him to Averill or Medwick.

17. Alejandro Oms (18)--Very comparable to Roush. Why hadn’t anyone heard of him?

18. Quincy Trouppe (19)--Him too. Good peak, career a little short compared to Mackey, but Bresnahan’s is even shorter.

19. Vern Stephens (21)--Another member of the middle-infield glut. He’s got a slightly better peak than Sewell or Doerr, but is a little short career wise.

20. Bob Lemon (22)--Again, good peak, short career.

21. Roger Bresnahan (23)
22. Joe Medwick (24)
23. Bob Elliott (25)
24. Ed Williamson (26)
25. Jose Mendez (27)
26. Bobby Doerr (28)
27. Dave Bancroft (29)
28. Ralph Kiner (30)
29. Wally Berger (31)
30. Bucky Walters (32)

PHOM
Earl Averill
Pee Wee Reese

1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
9.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
11.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot
12.Dick Redding – Very good career with lots of innings..
13.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
14.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.
15.Roger Bresnahan – Underrated by me previously. Very good catcher.
16.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
17.Cool Papa Bell – Feel I may be underrating him. Comparable to Carey but with a better peak.
18.George Sisler – Too many good candidates to make my ballot. Definitely think WS underrates him.
19.Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus.
20.Joe Medwick – I think WS has him right. I was overrating him in previous years though.

Required Disclosures
Rixey Too little peak
Griffith Not rated well by my system
Lemon Just misses my ballot

Off the ballot
21-25 Mays,Lemon,Oms,Roush,Matlock
26-30 W.Cooper,Johnson,Waddell,McGraw,Cravath
31-35 H.Smith,Winters,Leach,Gordon,Doyle
36-40 Rosen,Elliott,A.Cooper,Stephens,Bond
41-45 Schang,Rizzuto,Poles,Keller,Tiernan
46-50 Clarkson,Pesky,Doerr,F.Jones,Van Haltren
51-55 Taylor,Sewell,Rixey,Lundy,Trouppe
56-60 Dunlap,Scales,Traynor,H.Wilson,Chance
61-65 Byrd,Fournier,Griffith,Burns,Beckley
66-70 Allen,Long,Cuyler,Tinker,Lombardi

Mr. Siegel correctly pointed out that for PT seasons, Browning, Kiner, and Keller are all about equal. I stand corrected, they should be compared.

So why do I have Browning #1 and Kiner and Keller (and Charley Jones) off ballot? I'll add in Joe Jackson since he probably fits this group of poor fielding shortish career outfielders who may have a couple of seasons of possible extra credit (although I won't give it to the Shoeless one).

For raw batting WS, unadjusted by anything, they are:

Kiner - 216.3 in 1472 games, 23.8 BWS/162 G, C- fielder
Browning - 198.0 in 1183 games, 27.1 BWS/162 G, C+ fielder
Keller - 193.9 in 1170 games, 26.8 BWS/162 G, C- fielder
Jones - 140.7 in 881 games, 25.9 BWS/162 G, C+ fielder
Jackson - 262.8 in 1332 games, 32.0 BWS/162 G, C+ fielder

By WS, all fairly poor fielders, but Kiner stands out with the lowest BWS rate. Jackson laps them all on rate. Browning and Keller are essentially viewed as the same hitter, but remember there are no league-quality adjustments.

Looking at WARP adjusted for season only (because I don't subscribe to the timelining and the extent of league quality adjustments)

Kiner - 74.9 W1, .319 EQA, 608 BRAR, 436 BRAA, 83 FRAR, -70 FRAA
Browning - 94.7 W1, .335 EQA, 643 BRAR, 495 BRAA, 247 FRAR, -40 FRAA
Keller - 67.1 W1, .324 EQA, 472 BRAR, 347 BRAA, 145 FRAR, 18 FRAA
Jones - 70.5 W1, .319 EQA, 423 BRAR, 303 BRAA, 230 FRAR, 9 FRAA
Jackson - 86.9 W1, .331 EQA, 645 BRAR, 488 BRAA, 161 FRAR, -32 FRAA

Wow, now Browning (unadjusted for quality) is shown to hit (and field) like Joe Jackson, and both are significantly above the others. Keller and Jones are also not as horrible fielders as the other three. What if we timeline and adjust for league quality?

Kiner - 70.8 W2, 72.4 W3
Browning - 50.4 W2, 57.9 W3
Keller - 61.5 W2, 63.0 W3
Jones - 35.2 W2, 47.1 W3
Jackson - 69.1 W2, 71.0 W3

Well, here, Jackson and Kiner lap the field. Surprisingly, Browning is closer to Keller than I would have expected. Of course, Keller's extra credit (missed WWII seasons) would give him more WARP, but I don't think Browning's (additional games, but at the same rate) would.

I suppose the answer to my own question is that I don't timeline or adjust for league quality as much as many voters do.

I have Browning and Kiner high on my ballot (i.e. 5 to 8) and Jones on my ballot and all three in my PHoM. But not Keller.

To me the problem looking at their careers as a block (as above) is that Keller amassed a fair amount of PAs and GP'd in small increments of a half a season here, a half a season there. And I am not referring to his half of a war year, but to his injuries. His value to his team in those half-seasons is not accurately reflected in his raw rate because he was only able to perform at that rate for half of a pennant race. For Browning, Jones and Kiner, their value comes packaged in increments (full seasons) that made them more relevant and more valuable to the pursuit of a pennant.

For Browning, Jones and Kiner, their value comes packaged in increments (full seasons) that made them more relevant and more valuable to the pursuit of a pennant.

Browning has in-season durability issues as well -- not Keller-esque, but still quite significant. Its one of the things that has held him off my ballot all these years. Its not obvious because the lengths of seasons changed quite a bit during his career but its there. Any other week, I'd be motivated to try the math on that, but I'm on vacation and away from my stuff.

With no new candidates strong enough to muck things up, everybody takes two steps forward. One mild shocker at the very bottom, but pretty straightforward otherwise. Happy Holidays!

<u>1967 Ballot</u>
1)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Burleigh first became eligible for election in 1940. He appeared on 19 ballots. Last year, he appeared on 9 ballots. This is not a candidacy that is moving in the right direction. Perhaps after New Year’s, I’ll be able to sit down and write up a brief on his behalf. (Which is clearly my responsibility, since I’m far and away his bestest pal ‘round here.) In the meantime, the cream rises to the top in a weak year. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
3)Joseph Michael Medwick – “Ducky Wucky”
Still here, but not for much longer, methinks. Medwick continues a run of candidates with huge primes and a rather sharp drop-off. The guys who keep playing just impress me a lot more than the ones who flame out completely. Four top 10 seasons in Win Shares helps. 79th on Sporting News Top 100. 100th on SABR Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Another tremendous high with decent career filler. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
6)Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Interesting to compare him with Ruffing. Very similar, except that Rixey’s career is a little more consistent, while Ruffing has some distinct peaks. His career numbers are the kind I typically like. It’s hard to hate a pitcher with 300 WS.
7)Edd J Roush
He figures to be pretty lonely without Averill to shadow. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
8)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
9)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though.
10)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
A tiny edge over Doerr, thanks to black and gray ink. But they’re very close.
11)Carl William Mays
A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis. Frankly, I think the only reason more people vote for Lemon is the black ink. Mays is higher in career WS, peak, WS, prime WS, and they’re practically even in gray ink.
12)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Used to vote for him quite regularly. Some would call that timelining, but I just think stronger candidates have joined the ballot since his heyday.
13)Robert Pershing Doerr
Definitely a player I underrated, and may still be doing so. I like him better than Gordon owing to the higher career numbers.
14)Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Career numbers, plus my concerns about the next two guys, lift him back up for the time being. Still consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time.
15)Joseph Wheeler Sewell
I’ve been looking at Vern Stephens’ numbers, and Sewell’s placement on my ballot is becoming less defensible all the time. Consistently the top shortstop in the AL for his day, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares, although someone pointed out on their ballot that there were much better guys in the Negro Leagues at that time. Ritter & Honig Top 100.

<u>Close, But Lacking in Cigar</u>
16)Robert Granville Lemon
I’m very torn on Bob. He’s got very high scores in black and grey ink, as well as five Top 10 WS in his league. But his career numbers are not exceptional, and his peak isn’t really all that exceptional, especially when compared to Bucky Walters or Dizzy Dean. My take on Dwight Gooden this year is making me question Lemon’s merit. This is as high as I can place him right now. 59th on Maury Allen Top 100.
17)Ralph McPherran Kiner
18)Charles Herbert Klein – “Chuck”
Both Kiner and Klein contribute so much at their peak that my position as a career voter has to consider them. They definitely have more career than a Hughie Jennings. But I still lean toward candidates like Medwick and Sisler who have some endurance as well. So here they sit.
19)Dick Redding – “Cannonball”
Just keeps yo-yoing on and off my ballot. I’m relying very heavily on Chris Cobb’s projections, which demonstrate a substantial peak. He also does well in James Vail’s standard deviation scores. I’ll be curious to see what the people of Cooperstown think of him.
20)Clark Calvin Griffith
Welcome, Clark to your first ever appearance on my ballot somewhere other than the “Other Top 10 Finishers” section. Merry Christmas. You might want to keep the receipt. In my re-evaluation, I found that Griffith had striking similarities to Dick Redding, who I have voted for in the past. Redding has a higher peak, Griffith a higher prime. So for the time being, they’ll be my Van Haltren & Ryan of pitchers, hanging out together through thick and thin.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. Only finished in the Top 10 in Win Shares in his league once.

1967 Ballot

After much reflection, I have not made any changes in the order near the top of the rankings for this election. I think I have the right top 20 the right order. The elect-me ballot spots hold the same two players that they did in 1961. I’ve made a lot of changes in the 21-40 range, however, shaking up the players whom I hope will move onto the ballot as we get deeper into the backlog. Mostly I’ve been moving players from 1870-1910 up a bit and dropping players from the 1930s down a bit.

1. Clark Griffith (2). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1960s.
2. Eppa Rixey (3). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942. he is now getting closer to election at last. Would help to fill the 1915-25 drought.
3. Alejandro Oms (4). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is nearly a match for Averill’s, and he has much more value outside of his prime. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the possibility that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I am comfortable with Oms here.
4. Biz Mackey (6). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
5. Burleigh Grimes (7). My willingness to support National League stars from the teens and twenties is separating me from the consensus a bit, I think, with Grimes, Rixey, Roush, and Cravath representing that era on my ballot. Consideration of his batting value makes me agree with those who don’t see a whole lot of difference between him and Rixey, but that difference now amounts to 5 ballot spots.
6. Willard Brown (8). Probably the #4 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, and Monte Irvin. More raw power than Leonard and Irvin, I think (though less, apparently, than the mysterious Luke Easter), but his lack of plate discipline places him behind the more complete hitters. The plate-discipline issues make him very hard to rate.
7. Joe Gordon (9) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. An eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
8.Bobo Newsom (10). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border.
9. Edd Roush (11). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher.
10. Gavvy Cravath. (12) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly this time as I try to take a more balanced look at outfield candidates.
11. George Sisler (13). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player.
12. Jose Mendez. (14) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention. New data from Brent and Gary A gives us a window into CWL league quality during Mendez’s prime: this may help or hurt his case. I hope I’ll have time to study this in the next few “years” in relation to that data.
13. Dick Redding. (15) One of the great pitchers from the underrepresented late teens and early twenties. His peak falls right in the center of an underrepresented period.
14. Ralph Kiner. (16) Makes my ballot for the first time in his sixth year of eligibility. Just ahead of Doerr both among 1940s stars and in my all-time list.
15. Bob Lemon (17). Makes my ballot for the first time in his fifth year of eligibility. On the cusp of election, he’s a worthy candidate, but there are better choices available. I now have him behind Spahn, Roberts, Ford, Wynn, and Pierce among 1950s pitchers, but ahead of Newcombe.

The Next Five

16. Bobby Doerr (18). Brilliant fielder; I’m liking him more now that I see he really was one of the top players of the 1940s. He’ll make my ballot eventually.
17. Buzz Arlett. (19) With pitching credit, he had a truly outstanding career.
18. Rube Waddell (20). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, I see Waddell as well ahead of Joss and Dean.
19. George Van Haltren (21). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
20. Tommy Leach (22). Ditto.


Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

Joe Medwick. See #28 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #29 below
Jake Beckley. See #48 below
Cupid Childs. See #30 below

1967 Off-Off Ballot

21. Mickey Welch. (29) Moved him up again. Sean Gilman’s comments on Charley Jones and the number of 1930s players we’ve elected made me realize that I was unfairly penalizing the top 1880s candidates. Welch is ahead of Jones in my 1880s rankings, so he moves up, as does Jones.
22. Bucky Walters. (24) His peak is overrated by some, but he was an outstanding pitcher during his prime. Wouldn’t object to his eventual election.
23. Bill Byrd (27). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher.
24. Rabbit Maranville. (28) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
25. Tommy Bond (69). The biggest beneficiary of my reconsideration of pre-1890 stars this week. My system has him slightly ahead of Charley Jones and I had been ignoring that fact.
26. Charley Jones (47). Had been unfairly buried in my backlog due to period considerations, which I had not reassessed in light of our piling so many 1930s stars into the HoM. I agree that the 1930s had an unusual number of great players, but my downgrading of the top 1880s players was inconsistent with my handling of the 1930s candidates, so Jones moves up. I prefer him slightly to Joe Medwick, when he is given proper compensatory credit for blacklisting and when a proper AA discount is applied.
27. Roger Bresnahan (40). Also moves up. The aughts have been a well-represented decade, so the remaining stars from that era needed to be reconsidered in light of the handling of the 1930s. As a result, Bresnahan moves up.
28. Joe Medwick. (25). Drops a little after I compare his case more carefully to the borderline candidates from other well-represented decades. isn’t obviously unqualified, but his main distinguishing feature is his peak according to win shares, and I think it’s overrated. I’d take Oms, Brown, Roush, Cravath, Arlett, Van Haltren, Leach, and Jones first. Sadly, many of those more deserving players may never be elected. Time will tell.
29. Cool Papa Bell (26). As with Medwick, a borderline candidate from a well-represented period. Ranking doesn’t match reputation, and he’s one of a number of NeL candidates whose MLEs I am going to revisit in the new year, but I’ve generally trusted the numbers more than the reputation for NeL candidates.
30. Cupid Childs (43). I looked at the borderline 1890s candidates again as well this year, checking my system’s results against WARP’s, and Childs rises in my estimation as a result. I don’t really support him for election, but I prefer him to Doyle among second basemen and to Ryan and Beckley among 1890s stars.
31. Don Newcombe. (29) Hard to evaluate, hard to place. As a peak candidate, his peak ranks a little bit below those of Lemon and Walters. His career value is about the same, so he’s in the mix, but not yet near my ballot. I hope he won’t get lost in the shuffle. Is he slightly worse than Byrd and Welch and slightly better than Matlock? No idea, really, but I’ll start him there for now.
32. Leroy Matlock (30). A very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think it’s very likely that he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
33. Larry Doyle (31). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
34. Spotswood Poles (32). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look, though additional perspective offered by Brent’s CWL data doesn’t help his case.
35. Bob Elliott. (33) Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. The slope of the rankings is close to flat once one passes 25, so a small change in my view of Elliott could jump him up a long way. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I can’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now.
36. Carl Mays. (34) Wes Ferrell lite.
37. Urban Shocker. (35) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
38. Bus Clarkson . (36) Perhaps the best player to get no support from the experts in _Cool Papas and Double Duties_. My ranking system using Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs places Clarkson virtually even with Bobby Doerr, but I think the good doctor’s MLEs are a little bit higher than what my own would be, so until I’ve a chance to run my own numbers for Clarkson, I’m going to place him conservatively at the rear of the borderline infielder group for the 1940s: Gordon, Doerr, Elliott, and Clarkson. These four are all very close in value, but when they are shuffled in with 70 years worth of borderline candidates, they end up separated by 25 slots top-to-bottom.
39. Marvin Williams (n/e). A very difficult career to evaluate. Kudos to Dr. Chaleeko for putting together MLEs! For now, he’s paired with Bus Clarkson, but his case deserves further study, as does Clarkson’s.
40. Bob Johnson (37). Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
41. Jimmy Ryan (39) Nice peak, but in a weak league, and for much of his long career his numbers are not distinguished.
42. Wally Schang (41)
43. Quincy Trouppe (42).

44-48. George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley,
49-53. Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy, Hugh Duffy (38), Mel Harder,
54-58. Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky, Lave Cross,
59-63. Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Mickey Vernon, Bobby Veach,
64-68. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Phil Rizzuto,
69-73. Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier, Bruce Petway,
74-78. Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning,
79-83. Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day, Tony Mullane,
84-88. Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Kelly's Ballot and Christmas List of Lost Causes:

<u>PHOM Inductees</u>: Kris Kringle and Fred Gailey.

1. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901 - The weight of the evidence.

1a. A pony

2. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906 - I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Also, career OPS+ of 149.

2a. Red Rider BB Gun

3. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921 - The second best peak and prime. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League.

3a. Stuart Scott to never appear on ESPN again.

4. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957 - WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Great peak and prime.
Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152.
Was an on-base machine, with the 4th highest OBP among eligibles behind McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. His .518 SLG is 7th.
Among position players: 1939 – 22 ws – 14th in rookie year. 1940 – 24 ws – 9th. 1941 – 32 ws – 4th. 1942 – 34 ws – 2nd. 1943 – 36 ws – 2nd. 1946 – 31 ws – 4th.

4a. A Winnebago

5. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918 - Adjusted for season length, only Browning and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime.
An A+ outfielder for his career who played less than 50% of his games in center.
He was 2nd in 1890 PL. 1891 AA 3rd. 1892 NL 5th. 1893 NL 1st (tied). 1894 NL 1st. 1895 NL 11th. 1897 8th. 1898 13th.

5a. World Peace and Goodwill toward man.

6. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958 - Best National League pitcher between Hubbell and Roberts/Spahn. This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts.
3 times best pitcher in NL. Best pitcher by 12 win shares, 38 to 26; by 4 win shares, 32 to 28; by 8 win shares, 32 to 24. He missed by 1 win share in 1941 of leading the league 4 times.
Only 3 eligibles have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Dean has more Black Ink.
Faced tougher average opponents then any real candidate. Only Nap Rucker, Thorton Lee, and Eddie Smith faced tougher.

6a. Lego Starfleet Voyager – I cried like a baby when I was 8 and didn’t get it for Christmas. I did get it later.

7. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960 - Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.

7a. Serenity to have doubled its domestic take.

8. Alejandro Ohms – PHOM 1964 - Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic.
His thread says everything I would say, but better.

8a. My two front teeth. Actually, just the slight gap between my two front teeth to disappear.

9. Cupid Childs - PHOM 1932 - Childs was the best second basemen of the 1890s by a wide margin. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year of the decade. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.

9a. Last two seasons of the X-Files, never happened.

10. Bob Lemon – PHOM 1965 - 7 20 win seasons, 7 years with 20+ win shares, 7 times a win shares All-Star. He was a very good pitcher who didn't get hurt. 9 top tens in IP. 9 top tens in wins. 6 top tens in winning percentage. 6 top tens in ERA. 5 top tens in ERA+.

10a. For Joss Whedon and Tim Minear to never have another show on Fox. (Firefly, Wonderfalls, and The Inside all cancelled within 8 episodes aired.)

11. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942 - Only Rixey have a higher career win share total. Tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. Highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers.
First in NL twice (1899, 1901).
Top 10 pitcher in 1902, 1903, 1906, 1907, 1908, 1909

11a. Some evidence that the makers of Lost have a clue as to where the show is going.

12. Jose Mendez: Big beneficiary of rereading his thread. Fantastic peak/prime. And did really well against top-of-the-line white teams. REREAD HIS THREAD.

12a. I become Emperor for Life of the Baseball Hall of Fame with power to revoke membership and require the passage of an extensive test of baseball history before you get a vote.

13. Tommy Leach - PHOM 1966 - I know Leach split time in centerfield along with third, but I see him as the most qualified 3rd baseman by far. 7 Gold Gloves by win shares. 5 times a win shares All-Star. Instrumental in the Pittsburgh defenses of the first 15 years of the 20th century.

13a. Typing on the computer uses as many calories as an eliptical trainer.

14. Dobie Moore - No infielder has such a great peak. An all-star every year he was healthy.
Please review the information on his thread.

14a. Bud and Reinsdork end up the same island as the Lost-aways.

15. Frank Chance: Benefits from my reconsideration. 6 year run as best first baseman in baseball. His Cubs were the winning-est team of all time based on anything from 1 year to 8 years (or more). It wasn’t just Brown and Sheckard. Great at getting on base. I think people forget he had a OPS+ of 135 while still being in the top 70 in career stolen bases.

15a. It is acceptable for actresses to eat and not get botox.

Actually, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez are my PHOM inductees this year.

16. Burleigh Grimes – PHOM 1961 - Not just a slop pitcher. 7 top 10s in K/9. 10 top 10s in IP with 3 firsts. 11 top 10s in wins with 2 firsts.
6 years as win shares All-Star, 7 years with 20 win shares, 4 over 25, 2 over 30. 5 times a STATS all-star.
I like him better than Rixey among 1920s pitchers.
3 year peak of 92 win shares is in the top 10 among eligibles, career total of 286 is 4th among eligibles, 7 year prime of 181 is 5th behind 4 pitchers whose primes were in better pitching times.

17. George Burns – PHOM 1938 - Like his balance. 4 top 5s in extra-base hits and 6 top 10s. Also, led league in walks 5 times, 2 other top 5s, 2 more top 10s. 8 top 10s in runs created. 3 times best outfielder in league, 1 time second, 2 times 3rd best OF in NL. 8 straight years among top 10 position players in NL including 1 first and 4 times in top 3. And he did this as a lead off hitter.

18. Willard Brown - Dropping from my previous estimation because I reconsidered his dominance of the NAL in light of his competition and the lack of walks. I had to balance the lack of walks with the small base upon which those are based. His power is certainly impressive. Does he remind anyone else of Jeff Francoeur? Maybe Soriano is a valid comp? I am just trying better understand him.

19. Luke Easter – I give various bits of credit for WWII, NeL play, Industrial League play, and barnstorming. He was a fearsome power hitter who played forever and hit forever. Julio Franco’s role model.

20. Wilbur Cooper - Similar to Grimes, just 700 fewer innings and better defensive support. Had 9 years of 20 win shares. This is unique. The number of pitchers with 9 or more such seasons since he retired are Grove, Spahn, Clemens, Seaver, Maddux, Palmer, Niekro, and Blyleven. But he only had 1 year over 30. A 4 time STATS all-star, 6 times win shares all-star. 12th in non-consecutive 3 yr peak. 8th in consecutive 3-yr peak. 6th in 7yr prime. 7 top 10s in ERA+, 8 top 10s in wins, 8 top 10s in IP.

Other guys: Medwick, Mackey, Rixey, Griffith, Van Haltren, Bell.

Medwick: 21st on my list. I am very concerned by the dropoff of Medwick’s production, first after 1938, then after 1941. I am concerned that he got to stay and compete against War-diluted talent. I am concerned that he built up his big counting and average numbers in a great hitting park. Does anyone have home-road splits for his Cardinal years other than HRs? I am concerned that he has only 3 years over 24 win shares.

Mackey: 24th on list. Peak and prime was not as high as I thought it would be. Poor second half of his career.

George Sisler: 28th: Prime is not high enough to balance the not-great career. Does anyone have his home-road splits? Sportsman’s Park was such a great hitters park. I see him as a better Jimmy Ryan. A great first half of a career, but not enough in the second half.

Rixey: Around 39-40th. Cooper and Rixey and Vance and Coveleski and Johnson and Alexander were all better in the teens and twenties. Lack of big years hurts him. Luque and Donohue faced the tougher pitchers on the Reds. I have severe doubts about giving war credit if the following story is true. I can’t find the source, but Rixey joined the war effort in a fit of pique after the Phillies traded Alexander to the Cubs after the 1917 season. If you leave for war because you are angry with management, rather than patriotism or draft, I am not sure about giving any credit. I still do, but it is under exam.

Griffith: About 31st. Did not have the big years that his contemporaries did. Maybe that is why he had a longer career, but he definitely lacks the big years of Young, Nichols, Rusie, or McGinnity.

George Van Haltren: About 22nd. PHOM 1939: Lots of year with 25 win shares once you adjust for schedule length. Unfortunately, the 1890s were the best decade for outfielders to put up big numbers and there were too many others who put up bigger numbers for him to make the ballot.

Cool Papa Bell: About 33rd. He suffers from the same difficulties as Beckley, except he was quite a bit better. Long career, but no peak and a low prime.

1967

Country Slaughter and Addie Joss go PHoM. Am I only the second to P-enshrine Joss (after karl)?

1. Dobie Moore (2 last week-1-1, PHoM 1942)--Still the best player available at his peak.

2. Joe Medwick (3-3-2, PHoM 1954)
3. George Sisler (4-4-3, PHoM 1938)
4. Pete Browning (5-5-5, PHoM 1961)
5. Ralph Kiner (6-6-6, PHoM 1964)--the big peak hitters.

6. Rube Waddell (7-7-8, PHoM 1932)
7. Jose Mendez (8-8-9, PHoM 1957)
8. Tommy Bond (9-9-4, PHoM 1929)--the big peak pitchers.

9. Willard Brown (10-13-12, PHoM 1966)
(9a. Enos Slaughter (x-10-new, PHoM 1967)--the prime/career hitters.

10. Addie Joss (11-11-10, PHoM 1967)--second best prime ERA+ available after Waddell.

11. Ed Williamson (12-12-11, PHoM 1924)--comps include Jimmy Collins and Stan Hack.

12. Charley Jones (13-14-14, PHoM 1921)--without blacklist credit.

13. Dick Redding (14-15-13)--remains behind Joss, stays ahead of Lemon.

14. Joe Gordon (15-16-15)--top of the middle IF who could hit glut.

(14a. Stan Hack)

15. Larry Doyle (17-18)--back on my ballot for the first time since 1955.

Extended Ballot

16. Bobby Doerr (18-19)--closes out the middle IF who could hit glut.

17. Bob Lemon (19-20)--behind Mendez and Redding.

(17a. Harry Stovey
17b. Hugh Duffy
17c. Earl Averill)

18. Dizzy Dean
19. Eppa Rixey--the yin and yang of borderline pitchers.

20. Charlie Keller (20-x)--better than Hack Wilson and Chuck Klein, not better than Ralph Kiner among the short career Moneyball guys.

Dropped out of top 20: Vern Stephens--on closer look, not quite in Gordon-Doyle-Doerr class.

Required: Biz Mackey remains down in the 40s behind Trouppe and Bresnahan. Cool Papa is cooling his heels in the 30s with Clark Griffith. GVH languishes down in the 70s behind Bobby Estalella and Pancho Coimbre (and about 40 others). Beckley is a little bit ahead of GVH, while Cupid Childs is in the mid-20s.

Newbies: Who can tell Marvin Williams from Scales and Clarkson and Silvio Garcia and Perucho Cepeda? They're all down in the 60s and 70s with GVH, Beckley, Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance, and Lazzeri and Maranville and and and.

Kelly's Ballot and Christmas List of Lost Causes

Very entertaining... thanks!

I know this is more of a Lounge-post, but I rarely post there, so...

Favorite Christmas Movies and Media (just have to be based at Christmas to qualify). In no particular order:

Love Actually
Die Hard
Miracle on 34th Street
Elf
Bad Santa
The Sound of Music - well, we watch it at Christmas every year.
A Charlie Brown Christmas
The Grinch Who Stole Christmas (the cartoon only.)
The Nightmare Before Christmas

And for my wife,
A Christmas Story
Rudolph - the claymation extravaganza

And a shout out to the Six-Million Dollar Man Christmas record - four adventures set in the Christmas season.

Not a fan of It's A Wonderful Life.

On that note, I wish all of you a
Merry Christmas,
Happy Hanukkah,
Happy Kwanzaa,
Joyous Boxing Day,
Happy Winter Solstice to my Druid friends (a day late),
Joyeux Noel,
Feliz Navidad,
Merry Festivus,
and a Happy Holidays

1 (2)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

2 (3)Bob Lemon--Like Ferrell, only better.

3 (4)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

4 (8)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

5 (5)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

6 (12)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

7 (14)Joe Medwick--He had the talent, but I'm not sure he played long enough to ever get in to the HoM (Postscript--Medwick makes my PHOM this year)

8 (10)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

9 (7)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

10 (-)Ralph Kiner--7 straight years leading the league in homers. Obviously, the career length leaves something to be desired, but Kiner was very dominant for a considerable period.

11 (-)Dom Dimaggio--If WWII never happens, Dom's career numbers rival Max Carey, and his peak/prime leave Carey in the dust.

12 (13)Burleigh Grimes--I like the peak/career combo, and he keeps popping back up as a name to include towards the bottom of the ballot.

13 (11)Rube Waddell--10 straight years being in the top 5 in strikeouts. 7 straight years leading the league in K/9. Career ERA+ of 134. Dominant.

14 (9)Vern Stephens--Yes, his counting numbers were helped by the ballpark, and his teammates, but a shortstop with a career 120 OPS+ over 14 seasons is rare enough to merit ballot consideration.

15 (-)Joe Gordon--A tremendous what-if story that will never quite be good enough for the hall.

16. Johnny Sain
17. Urban Shocker
18. Eddie Cicotte
19. Dolf Luque
20. Carl Mays

Dropping out: George Sisler

Top 10 omissions: Sisler is the top eligible 1st baseman in my book, but that's a well represented position in the HOM. He could very easily be back on the ballot again soon. Rixey and GVH lack the peak to get on my ballot. Griffith is good, but there's only so many pitcher slots. He's in a glut. Cool Papa and Mackey (and their equivalent contemporaries) have been lapped by later entrants.

Dolf has 6 of 8 required disclosures. Does anyone have more? I'm embarrassed to say I have none.

To answer my own question, Kelly has 7. Anyone going for all eight?

John M also has 7

I use Win Shares, career first, bonus for peak, and try to balance out the positions a little.

1)JOE MEDWICK – 300+ wins shares, big peak. Fully qualified Best of the backlog.
2)EDD ROUSH –314 win shares, good career value, strong peak. After Edd I can see the arguments both for and against all the players on my ballot.
3)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak.
4)COOL PAPA BELL – Visceral vote,
5)BOBBY DOERR – lacks outstanding peak, but keeps sliding up my ballot.
6)CARL MAYS – I think his strong peak moves him ahead of Ruffing and Lemon, but just barely.
7)PIE TRAYNOR – Slightly ahead of Elliot and Rosen.
8)JOE GORDON 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
9)RALPH KINER – Van Haltren’s fall helps Ralph.
10)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but I think the argument about his lack of top 10 win share seasons is fairly compelling.
11) ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger and Schang are both ahead of Mackey IMO.
12)EPPA RIXEY
13)BOB LEMON – I think Rixey’s total value trumps Lemon’s peak advantage.
14) WALLY BERGER – Massive peak, I debate he and Duffy as my bottom centerfielder on the ballot every year it seems.
15)DIZZY DEAN – Next monster peak guy to get in?
16) LARRY DOYLE – I see all the arguments for Doyle, if his fielding wasn’t so in question, I think he’d be in.
17)BOB ELLIOT – Slightly behind Traynor, slightly ahead of Rosen. Fun guy in a sim league.
18)PHIL RIZZUTO Very popular among KC Blues fans.
19)AL ROSEN I think I have too many 3B on the ballot, which gives me a target area to clean up in the new year.
20)GEORGE SISLER – Good combo of peak and career value.

21-30Schang, Lazzeri, H. Wilson, Duffy, Stephens, Moore, Lombardi, Sewell, Warneke and Vernon.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang and Lombardi, Newcomb just outside my top 30, Griffith – about 50th

Dolf has 6 of 8 required disclosures. Does anyone have more? I'm embarrassed to say I have none.

Daryn, I also have none, which I guess means I'd not be dismayed with whoever we honored this ballot. However, maybe I make up for my follow-the-group-syndrome in that regard with my support for two guys not in the top 35, which will help keep me from showing up on the 'highest consensus' list.

1967 ballot

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker.

No major changes this month, though I did take a look to make sure, given the importance of the backlog these days.

Quincy Trouppe and Dizzy Dean join my PHOM this year.

1. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Best unelected hitter, at least for the peak-centric.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). We still need more pitchers, and to me, he looks like the best one still out there. Would have loved to see him pitch.

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m still his best friend, even after demoting him a bit a few years back. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

4. Joe Medwick (pHOM 1958). The peak is persuasive.

5. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in.

6. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another high-peaking infielder.

7. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Underrated (or so says my dropping consensus score). Impressive peak, lots of Ks.

8. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

9. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). A great hitter, even if he didn’t walk much.

10. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

11. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

12. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s back! I had him pegged right in my first few votes. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not higher), but it’s an impressive one.

13. Bucky Walters. Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.

14. Al Rosen. I remain pretty lonely on Rosen. Normally even I don’t go for guys with peaks this short, but his position gives him a decent boost in my system—I think we need more 3Bs.

15. Charlie Keller. Quite close to Kiner overall; a very underappreciated and underrated player (well, if you’re a peak voter, anyway).

16. George Sisler (pHOM 1939). The stretch to 20 brings Gorgeous George back to my (unofficial) ballot, after being demoted on reappraisal a few years back.

17. Roger Bresnahan. We need more catchers, and he played the position enough to qualify (if he’d played it more, he’d be significantly higher).

18. Joe Gordon. A solid infielder I may still be underappreciating.

19. Charley Jones. Another player I may still have too low; I’ve never been fully happy with my analysis of him (or of Pete Browning, who’s a few places below). His peak is prodigious, but how real are those numbers?

20. Larry Doyle. Another of the good-hitting infielders I tend to favor.

21-25: [Reese], Browning, Redding, [Slaughter], Mackey, Berger, H. Wilson
26-30: Oms, Cicotte, Poles, Griffith, Leach
31-35: McCormick, Cravath, Joss, Doerr, Roush
36-40: Chance, Ryan, Burns, Dunlap, Pesky
41-45: Welch, Van Haltren, Grimes, Lemon, Veach
46-50: Rizzuto, McGraw, Newcombe, B. Johnson, Stephens

Required Explanations:

•Lemon. He has a nice little peak, with the emphasis on “little.” Probably the best AL pitcher for at least a few years, but I’m not a big fan of many of the AL pitchers of this era. He’s at #44. Looks like he’ll join my list of HOM/not pHOM this year.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, but at #23, he is getting closer to my ballot.

•Rixey. Still above Ruffing, and the reevaluation helped him some. But still no peak to speak of, and still just outside my top 50.

•Van Haltren. Not a peak voter’s kind of hitter. He’s at #42.

•Griffith. Not great by WS, but a better PRAA peak than I’d realized. He’s at #29, and he may move up a bit more soon; my thoughts on him are still changing.

•Bell. Also not a peak voter’s type, unless you go entirely on reputation, which I’m not willing to do. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Big Klu, Antonelli, and Ned Garver were all interesting candidates, but none is particularly close to my top 50.

Dolf Lucky and the number of top candidates he's omitted? Let's put it this way: Dolf currently has a comfortable lead (~5 points) for lowest consensus score. TomH: it doesn't make much differenence that you've included some low-rated candidates. Realistically, just about every candidate is low-rated; you can hardly make up a ballot without including a bunch of them. You're within 2 points of the highest consensus score at this point, and fairly likely to wind up in the top 5 or 7.

The record low average consensus score is -13.8 in 1961. I'm reasonably confident we're going to break that record.

However, with about 58% of the precincts reporting, the network is not prepared to project winners at this time.

1967 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher. I must have different numbers for Trouppe, because he doesn’t impress me. I don’t think it is an accident that he wasn’t even considered by the new HOF Negro Leagues project.

2. Medwick, Joe – Medwick has one of the largest disparities between the WS evaluation and WARP evaluation that I’ve seen. His WS peaks and totals make him a solid B+ measured against all HoFers, but his WARP peaks and totals make him a C- measured against other HoFers. For example, he’s got 25.5 WS per 162 games, which is All Star-average season. He’s got a 7.1 WARP3 per 162 games, which is good, but not particularly special when measured against the top echelon. I looked generally at the WARP defensive scores again, and I distrust them more than ever. I’m giving more weight to the WS system in this case.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

6. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

7. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

8. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

9. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

10. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

11. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

12. Lemon, Bob – Not a lot different than Wes Ferrell, but Ferrell does a little better in my adjusted WARP and WS, as well as in Linear Weights, taking into account run support. The rankings from #5 down are very tight, so even the slight difference puts him four spots lower than Ferrell.

13. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

14. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction.

15. Ryan, Jimmy -- Back again. If only people gave him as much credit as they give Van Haltren.

16. Griffith, Clark
17. Dean, Dizzy
18. Welch, Mickey
19. Long, Herman
20. Cuyler, Kiki/Doerr, Bobby (since 16-20 don’t count anyway)

Required Disclosure(s):

Rixey, Eppa – No question in my mind he is better than Ruffing. However, he never really had flashes of brilliance, and for me that is a pre-requisite to the HoM.

Van Haltren, George – He’s #31 in my system.

[The silver lining in the Ruffing election is at least I don’t have to explain anymore why he can’t break my top 50.]

Tried to get new comments in for everyone this week. Seems like the half of this ballot is made up of players in the 10-20 vote netherworld, while the remainder is filled with 4-vote and only-vote players. Thought I should at least try to generate support, or at least explain my reasons to myself.

1. Bob Lemon (2), Clev. (A) SP (’46-’58) (1964) – Close to the same pitching value as Trout, then adds ~4 more wins at the plate compared to Dizzy. That’s enough for the top spot, and an indication of how tightly packed these players are to each other.
2. Bobby Doerr (4), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Obviously a defense and war credit/debit choice, but his offense was both above league and positional averages and the advanced metrics have no question about how valuable a defender he was.
3. Willard Brown (7), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
4. Alejandro Oms (6), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
5. Biz Mackey (9), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967) – Someday is finally here!! He made it in on my ballot.
6. Bucky Walters (5), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value. This causes Bucky to drop on the ballot. It may have been because I just like saying Bucky. Anyone else here read ‘Get Fuzzy’?
7. Dizzy Trout (10), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
8. Joe Gordon (11), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable.
9. Dutch Leonard (8), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
10. Phil Rizzuto(12), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59) –
11. George Van Haltren (--), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
12. Joe Medwick (--), St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) – This year, the one big year lifts him over Bob Johnson.
13. Dom DiMaggio (n/a), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
14. Bob Johnson (--), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. Baseball Analysts has an article about him this week.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
15. Jake Beckley (--), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – I’m always gonna be a career-voter at heart.

Dropping Out
Murray Dickson – The drop in pitching quality from the top to the bottom of the ballot is incremental, but in comparing Lemon to Dickson there’s no contest. Comparing Doerr to Hack or Groh, or Brown to Johnson or Beckley is much closer.
Bobo Newsom– Ditto.
Joe Sewell (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.

Eppa Rixey – Bobo was better.
George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but isn’t.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.

Patrick, we are still tracking Top 20.

We need your 16-20 spots.

My #1 and #5 were elected. The newbies of 1967 are the weakest since 1938, so look for a backlog bonanza. Ashburn is the class of 1968, with Schoendienst and Yost also appearing. We’ll induct Musial and Berra in 1969, while Early Wynn also debuts.

1) Clark Griffith (2,2,2) – Takes the top spot on my ballot for the second time. The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Like Leach et al, he doesn’t have that one big Wow! that gets voters excited. Career only seems short due to missing two years after contraction; peak only seems low because the contracted league is harder to dominate. Good hitter, too. A workhorse in his prime, averaging 332 IP from 1895-99, in seasons that were 15% shorter than today. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

2) George Van Haltren (3,3,3) – I’ve been among his five best friends for 31 elections. As the ballot thins out he climbs up again, passing Beckley, Bell and Sisler in recent years. Now in his 59th year eligible. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

3) Eppa Rixey (4,4,4) – Liking him more, but not quite up to Faber’s level. Looks like the GVH of pitchers. Only Grimes had more wins during the 1920s. Most IP, 1921-28:
1—2262 B. Grimes
2—2192 E. Rixey
Lowest ERA, 1921-28, minimum 1200 IP:
1—3.00 D. Vance
2—3.03 D. Luque
3—3.12 E. Rixey

4) Bob Lemon (6,15,15) – While it would be ideal to wait six more years for all of his contemporaries to hit the ballot, I think you need to try and rate him as accurately as possible among the current candidates. Essentially a Wes Ferrell clone. I like guys who play and, after Roberts, he was the biggest workhorse of his time. Pitchers with .500 OPS 1948-56, minimum 500 PA (career OPS+ in parentheses):

1—.701 (82) B. Lemon
2—.698 (85) D. Newcombe
3—.668 (77) T. Byrne
4—.652 (76) M. McDermott
5—.586 (52) N. Garver
6—.558 (54) E. Wynn
7—.543 (58) J. Sain
8—.514 (39) M. Dickson
9—.512 (43) W. Spahn

Pitchers averaging 240 IP per season 1948-53:

1—1721/286.8 B. Lemon
2—1719/286.4 W. Spahn
3—1669/278.2 R. Roberts
4—1469/244.8 M. Dickson
5—1442/240.4 L. Jansen

5) Tommy Leach (7,6,7) – Still in danger of Lost Cause status, but held his ground again last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10—2182 T. Speaker
11—2156 T. Leach
12—2123 W. Keeler
13—2122 J. Sheckard
14—2087 S. Magee

6) George Sisler (8,7,8) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

7) Biz Mackey (9,8,9) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he’s the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

8) Edd Roush (10,9,10) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he suffered his worst support in seven years. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

9) Cool Papa Bell (13,12,13) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Moving up.

10) Joe Medwick (11,10,11) – Good peak/career combo. I supported Goose, why not Ducky? An all-star ten times. Three times top 5 NL MVP voting. This is around my HoM cutoff line. Players with more than 550 extra base hits 1933-42:

1—729 J. Medwick
2—707 J. Foxx
3—631 B. Johnson
4—628 H. Greenberg
5—605 M. Ott
6—556 H. Trosky

11) Roger Bresnahan (14,14,14) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

12) Jimmy Ryan (12,11,12) – The Ryan express slipped off the tracks a bit more; he still has not finished higher than 40th since 1951. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings. To those 14 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

13) Bobby Doerr (15,--,--) – Back on my ballot after four years off. Consensus of ratings consulted puts him ahead of Gordon. Doerr over Childs; similar peaks and hitting, but Doerr was a much better glove and had a longer prime. Players with 1600 games at second base, 1876-1959:

1—2650 E. Collins
2—2209 C. Gehringer
3—2126 B. McPhee
4—2035 N. Lajoie
5—1852 B. Doerr
6—1813 B. Herman
7—1775 F. Frisch
8—1735 J. Evers
9—1728 L. Doyle
10—1719 R. Schoendienst
11-1687 D. Pratt

14) Jake Beckley - Back, for awhile at least. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

15) Wally Schang – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar since his last appearance on my ballot, in 1945.

Off Ballot

16) Dobie Moore – If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him.

17) Burleigh Grimes – Last appeared on my ballot in 1945.

18) Cupid Childs – I’ve voted for him three times: 1914, 1915 and 1942. The backlog added since then still has not played itself out.

19) Hugh Duffy – Last appeared on my ballot 1941 thru 46.

20) Alejandro Oms – He haunts me, too.

I don't remember who did the most similar/least similar ballot measures, but I would guess that Patrick and I would be rather opposite. Recent vs. Oldie. Career vs. Prime.

1870s centered careers:
Patrick: 0
Kelly: .5 (Jones)

1880s centered careers:
P: 0
K: 2.5 (Welch, Jones, Browning)

1890s centered careers:
P: 2 (GVH, Beckley)
K: 2 (Childs, Duffy)

1900s centered careers:
P: 0
K: 3 (Willis, Leach, Chance)

1910s centered careers:
P: 0
K: 1 (Mendez)

1920s centered careers:
P: 1.5 (Mackey and Ohms)
K: 2 (Ohms, Moore)

1930s centered careers:
P: 3 (Medwick, Bob Johnson, Brown, Mackey)
K: .5 (Troupe)

1940s centered careers:
P: 7.5 (Doerr, Walters, Trout, Gordon, Leornard, Rizzuto, DiMaggio, Brown)
K: 2.5 (Keller, Walters, Troupe)

1950s centered careers:
P: 1 (Lemon)
K: 1 (Lemon)

Variety, the spice of life.
Happy Holidays.

Rusty,

You can track the 16-20 spots if you wish. I do not want the ballot amended to 20 spots, and not providing them is my silent protest against this idea.

Happy holidays.

If two voters were gonna have three and only three players in common, what are the odds they would be Ohms, Walters and Lemon?

Kelly,

Keller is this close to being on my ballot too.

We can't be as far off as you might think. Surely we get bonus pts. on the consensus scores for both having Bucky in 6th place, right? We could even form an alliance to gather support in dropping Rixey and Sisler in the rankings.

Really, really high.

I would love to see Rixey drop in the rankings, but more voters like the slightly above average for a really long time thing. His lack of peak and prime are big blocks for me. If he is elected, he will have the worst peak and prime combination of any elected pitcher, surpassing Red Faber.

I've always said that baseball players can't become great just by being very good for a long long time. You gotta BE great.

Having said that, Rixey was sure as hell a better pitcher than Red Ruffing. He's still sittin' around #20 and for the first time I actually looked at him along with Joss and Lemon and Redding and Dean and Cicotte and a bunch of position players as a possible PHoMer.

I'm a small hall guy myself, and a peak/prime voter. No way would Rixey make my small hall. But ours isn't a small hall. So it comes down to looking at guys like Hack Wilson and Charley Keller, who are the type of player I want in my PHoM but clearly second tier in that category, or guys who were, well, very good for a long long time. And I do eventually reach the point where I have to say that very good for a long long time is better than great for less than, oh, about 5-6 years. e.g. Dobie Moore in, Charley Keller out. And Rixey, maybe in, but Ruffing maybe out.

Tough choices but I've decided that a 215-player PHoM can't consist entirely of one type of player.

Ballot for 1967

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Still revising my system. Maybe next year.

No significant changes; don't want to surprise the prognosticators ;-)

1) B. LEMON -- My system rates Lemon clearly ahead of Ferrell (and I've been one of Wes' best friends.) What more could you ask of a pitcher over a 9 year span?

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Best MLB SS of the 20's.

3) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away.

4) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

5) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

6) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

7) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

8) J. TINKER -- Long career playing great defense; integral part of a great team.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

10) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

11) J. MEDWICK -- Don't really think he's HOM worthy.

12) C. P. BELL -- Just moving on.

13) H. DUFFY -- 19th century Medwick.

14) R. MARANVILLE -- He's back.

15) T. LEACH -- Him too.

16) D. REDDING -- Extra credit.

17) H. HOOPER -- Extra credit.

18) J. RYAN -- Extra credit.

19) D. LUNDY -- Extra credit.

20) E. RIXEY -- Extra credit.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Ray Schalk, Bobby Doerr,
23-24) Joe Gordon, Ned Williamson,
25-26) Herman Long, Wally Schang,
27-28) Rube Waddell, Phil Rizzuto,
29-30) Jim McCormick, Edd Roush,
31-32) Roger Bresnahan, Vern Stephens,
33-34) Clark Griffith, Jake Beckley,

I've got a voter-to-voter ageement score for Kelly and Patrick as 22 on a 0-100 scale. I suspect that this year, that will be below average but nothing particularly unusual.

Well, I did have a 0 agreement score once - I think around 1942.

1967 Ballot (Gadfly)

As always, I believe that the conversion rates used in the HOM are inaccurate (see Cravath thread) and unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performances which, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.

In addition, I give catchers a 30 percent position bonus, pitchers a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921, and credit for career interruptions that are timeline related (i.e. wars but not injuries). I also upgrade for various other small things like the 1877-78 and 1892-1900 contractions while downgrading early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL, among other things.

My ballot relies on Win Shares and tries to weight peak and career equally, basically multiplying the total WS of the player's best 5 years by three and adding this number to the career WS to arrive at a score that looks like an old-fashioned grading system (i.e 900 and above: Grade A Hall of Famer, 800-899: Grade B, etc.) and slightly favors peak.

1. Gavy Cravath (A+)
Greastest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. Proper evaluation of his Minor League numbers make it clear that he was a Major League caliber player for 20 years with an astounding peak. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

2. Willard Brown (A+)
The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. Brown was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1949 and would have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without war and stupidity. Brown also walked much more than he is being given credit for in his thread (playing in Puerto Rico during his prime, Brown was walking more than once per every 10 at bats).

3. Luke Easter (A)
Basically Willie McCovey's bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, World War II, injuries, and then age discrimination. Easter is the baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all gotten to play their full careers out in the Majors, Easter would have been the one most remembered and it's not even close.

4. Dick Redding (A)
Redding would have won over 300 games in the Major Leagues with well over 200 of them coming from 1910 to 1920.

5. Cool Papa Bell (A)
6. Alejandro Oms (A)
7. Tetelo Vargas (A-)
8. Biz Mackey (A-)
All very overqualified Negro Leaguers and badly underestimated by the conversion rates in use.

9. Charlie Jones(B+)
Jones was clearly a better hitter than Pete Browning or Ralph Kiner, who are both close comps. If he had only played ball from 1871-75, Rippay would have been an easy Grade A Hall of Famer.

10. George Van Haltren (B+)
11. Rube Waddell (B)
12. Hugh Duffy (B)
Three forgotten guys from the turn of the century. Van Haltren is directly comparable to and much better than Jake Beckley; Waddell was great and would have been much greater at virtually any other time; and Hugh Duffy was the Kirby Puckett of the 1890s with a longer career.

13. Jose Mendez (B)
Mendez was, for seven years, one of the three greatest pitchers alive and had a career that lasted 20 years.

14. Quincy Trouppe (B)
Trouppe is basically a much bigger, stronger, better version of Wally Schang and would have walked a 100 times a year in the Major Leagues.

15) Ben Taylor
16) Edd Roush
17) Charlie Keller
18) Joe Gordon
19) Chet Brewer
20) Tony Mullane
21) Clark Griffith
22) Tommy Leach
23) Roger Bresnahan
24) Bill Wright
25) Joe Medwick

The 1967 Class is very thin, which probably means that Joe Medwick (my 25) and Bob Lemon (my 29) will go in. Can't say I'm excited about either one at all as they are both straight C Hall of Famers. On the other hand, there isn't a solid C in the whole 1967 class (Ted Kluszewski, Jackie Jensen, Hank Bauer, Ned Garver, etc.)

Also I am pretty firmly convinced that Bill Wright, a Negro League star who comps Ducky Wucky almost perfectly, was also a much better player than Medwick.

The 1967 Negro Leaguers are no better than the 1967 Major League Hall of Merit wannabees. Marvin Williams would have been a star at his peak but hardly compares well to George Scales or Bus Clarkson. Bob Boyd is fascinating but, like Williams, not HOF or HOM material.

Perhaps the most fascinating thing about Boyd is that in 1954, age 35, he had a great season in the Texas League. This eventually lead to the Rope getting into the Majors for a couple years in his late 30s where he whacked away at:

1956 (37): .311/.395/.400
1957 (38): .318/.388/.408
1958 (39): .309/.350/.439

But, in 1954, Willard Brown, my #2 and an ancient 39, also played in the Texas League and was enormously better than Boyd. But Willard Brown's thread doesn't even credit him with being Major League caliber in 1954 which only comes about, once again, because the conversion rates are off.

1967 ballot. Will have to be brief. My ballot tends to differ from the consensus in the following ways: (1) larger bonus/deduction for strength of league, (2) more "gloves" than "bats", (3) more consideration of how a player performed relative to other players at the same position at the same time (hello, Gil Hodges!), (4) more generous WWII credit, (5) more timelining (or less reverse-timelining), (6) combination of peak and career by a sum of length and strength measures rather than a product.

I thought hard and long about Bob Lemon this week. In the end, I estimated how much more likely his batting was to make his team win than the batting of an average pitcher, and reconveted this to an effective ERA+. This probably overstates his effectiveness, because poor-hitting pitchers are replaced by pinch hitters in high-leverage batting situations, but to better quantify this line of argument would require more heavy-duty game theory than I have time for.

1. Wally Schang
2. Joe Sewell

League strength and best-at-glove-position arguments.

3. Joe Gordon
4. Bobby Doerr

Gloves, WWII credit.

5. Charlie Keller Win Shares peak overcomes short career; WWII credit.

6. Joe Medwick Buying the WS analysis of his peak, giving him enough to rate this high.

7. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

8. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; perhaps somewhat comparable to Lefty Gomez.

9. Bob Lemon Jumps onto my ballot for reasons discussed above.

10. Tommy Bridges 126 ERA+ in 2826 IP in the 1930-1943 AL.

11. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers.

12. Ernie Lombardi Even with WWII deduction, one of the best hitting C ever, if not the fastest.

13. Dutch Leonard (Emil) Not one outstanding quality, but lots of very good in a long career.

14. Bob Elliott Glove position, NL strength, best 3B of his time, or 2nd best if you include Hack in the same era.

15. Lefty Gomez Peak-season bonus for his two Cy-Young type seasons boosts him
onto the ballot.

16-20, in order: Ralph Kiner, Mickey Vernon, Phil Rizzuto, Eppa Rixey, Pie Traynor.

Left behind:

Clark Griffith: made my ballot once, but has been passed by too many later players.

I have Sisler lowest among the returning top-10. While I sympathize with his case, his injury meant that his prime wasn't quite dominant and long enough for me.

A rethinking of my ballot for 1967 moves NeL players Mackey, Bell and W. Brown down, high peak guys like Kiner, Keller and Cravath move up.


1.Medwick PHoM 1956. Compared with pool of HoM hitters who appeared in 20th century ML, scores above the WS median for best 10 consecutive seasons.
2.Griffith PHoM 1913. 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in. 1890’s still underrepresented.
3.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented, Duffy’s 8 best seasons, best 10 consecutive seasons and WS per 162 would put him at the median when compared with current HoMers. Van Haltren doesn’t fare well in this comparison.
4.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles.
5.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
6.Cravath Would have been in my PHoM 35 years ago had the mle’s been available.
7.Keller The more I look, the more I like. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I don’t see a better WS/162 among 20th century players on this ballot.
8.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
10.Rixey More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander. PHoM 1939.
11.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
12.Walters Preferring his peak to Ruffing’s career.
13.Lemon Will make HoM before PHoM.
14.Brown, Willard Strong mle’s.
15.Bell I’m losing interest in his candidacy.
16.Bresnahan SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
17.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” He may have overlooked a few.
18.Cooper Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. Was it hometown bias that put him in PHoM in 1942?
19.C. Mays
20.Chance

21-25–Burns, Oms, Arlett, Berger, Lundy

Gadfly,

Tetelo Vargas (eligible since 1950) hasn't appeared on your ballot in past elections. Do you have new information about him that raises his ranking?

Brent-

Vargas is one of a bunch of odd players that I had never really tried to rank. Mickey Welch is probably the only one of these guys that gets any votes (I still haven't worked out any kind of good system for 19th Century pitchers, but I like Mullane better anyways). But the Dominican Deer is one hell of a player and I know enough about him to rank him.

Vargas (b.1906-d.1971) played forever. He turned pro in 1923 and played until 1955. In the late 1920s, he was hitting .380 with power and speed in the Negro Leagues. He spent most of the 1930s in Venezuela before returning to the Negro Leagues in the 1940s (still a great hitter). He became a fixture in the Puerto Rican League in the 1940s, playing against
the usual suspect Negro Leaguers.

And playing extremely well.

Vargas even won the Dominican Summer League Batting Championship once. In 1954. At the age of 48. With a bunch of Major League caliber Negro and Latin players in the same League.

Vargas is extremely comparable to Cool Papa Bell. He was incedibly fast, though not as fast as Bell. He played forever and would have played in the Majors for at least 20 years. He was great defensively (early on he played shortstop before becoming a CF). In my opinion, Vargas was a better hitter than Bell, though it's close (and only because Bell became a switch-hitter).

Vargas and Bell (and Oms) are all very similar (Oms being an even better hitter than Bell or Vargas but not as fast or as valuable defensively). In the end, I could see no reason not to group Tetelo Vargas with the other two.

The one other odd player who I have never put on my ballot, but should, would be Sol White. White is remembered now as the founder of the Philly Giants and the guy who wrote the first book on Negro Baseball in 1906.

But he was one hell of a great player. He was, in my opinion, a better player than Frank Grant (Grant was more valuable defensively but White was a much better hitter) or his white contemporaries Bid McPhee, Jack Glasscock, or whoever.

Perhaps the best way to state White as a player would be to imagine Glasscock or McPhee with the hitting talent of Hardy Richardson (Grant, on the other hand, is a good comp for McPhee or a better Fred Pfeffer). I'm hoping that White is elected to the Hall of Fame in the new ballot. He would be more than worthy.

Thanks, Gadfly.

My 1967 Ballot:

First, a comment on this year’s backlog election. HoMers typically become eligible for election in their 40s, meaning that this year we would normally be electing candidates born during 1918-27. That, however, is the generation that was young during WWII, becoming eligible for the draft between ages 18 to 22, meaning that some of the young ballplayers from that generation who otherwise would have gone forward to HoM-quality careers were injured, killed, or simply missed a crucial stage of career development. Despite our efforts to assign war credit, this generation will inevitably be short-changed in the HoM by four or five players, which thereby has afforded us an opportunity to draw from the backlog. (Note – could WWI have led to a similar shortage of HoMers born during 1894-99? We've noted the scarcity of players with careers centered in the 1920s.) I’ll close this paragraph by expressing my personal gratitude to all those who sacrificed career, health, or life for country.

For my personal hall of merit, I’ve selected two great players who probably will never make it into the consensus Hall—Alejandro Oms and Phil Rizzuto.

1. Bob Lemon – Over 9 seasons (1948-56) he averaged 21-12, 1.1 wins above team, 272 IP, 111 DERA+, 88 OPS+. (PHoM 1964)

2. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. Gary A’s latest numbers include detailed statistics for 24 games Méndez pitched against major league competition during 1908-13; they are largely consistent with Chris’s earlier MLEs and confirm Méndez’s status as an outstanding pitcher. (PHoM 1938)

3. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 124 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

4. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

5. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA (PHoM 1966)

6. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

7. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

8. Ducky Medwick – 7 seasons with 25+ WS, with a high of 42 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule) places him just behind Duffy in my rankings. His 2.79 fielding WS / 1000 innings is outstanding for a pure corner outfielder. MVP for 1937. (PHoM 1958)

9. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 25+ WS. His candidacy exemplifies the excellent information we’ve been able to gather about otherwise obscure players. (PHoM 1967)

10. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 115 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

11. Phil Rizzuto – He’ll never make it into the Hall of Mashers, and he might not be that great in a fantasy league. But on real baseball diamonds, his energy and broad base of skills were invaluable. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; age 25-27 seasons spent in military service. (PHoM 1967)

12. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley.

13. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley.

14. Charlie Keller – Four seasons with 31+ WS. OPS+ above 140 every season from 1939-47. Contrary to some statements made on this thread, Keller was a durable player during his prime, playing at least 90 percent of scheduled games from 1940-46 except for war service. However, a serious back injury in early 1947 left him as a pinch hitter / backup outfielder for the remainder of career.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great catcher of the deadball era.

Test ballot:

16. Cool Papa Bell Just misses.
17. Dick Redding
18. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
19. Buzz Arlett
20. Gavy Cravath

21-25: Gordon, Matlock, Willis, Moore, Shocker

Off ballot:

33. Eppa Rixey – There was a great discussion comparing him with Lemon. Although Rixey’s best 2500 innings are perhaps not that far behind Lemon’s, there are at least ten other pitchers who are even closer. The argument, though, seems to be that Rixey had enough value in his remaining 2000 innings to trump the peak / prime advantage of Lemon. But my problem with that argument is that Rixey’s bottom 2000 innings were mostly journeyman stuff, including seasons when he went 2-11, 6-12, and 11-22. The HoM is supposed to be about greatness, and I just can’t see that those additional innings contribute much to his case for greatness.

42. George Van Haltren – A good player, but I don’t see that he was better than (for example) George Burns, Spottswood Poles, Wally Berger, Fielder Jones, or Bobby Veach.

51. George Sisler – Career value is hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime are not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Medwick, Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Other new arrivals:

Two new pitchers make my top 100. Johnny Antonelli was co-star (along with Willie Mays) of the world champion 1954 Giants, placed third in the MVP vote, and, had it existed, would have won the Cy Young Award. He remained a top pitcher for the next 5 seasons and also receives credit for two prime seasons in military service. I’ve ranked him # 55. Mike Garcia was another guy who had a run of several seasons (1949-54) as one of the top pitchers in baseball (and part of an all-time great rotation); I’ve ranked him # 98. The best new position player, Ted Kluszewski, didn’t make my top 100.

1967 ballot (all-backlog):

1. Jake Beckley - keeps bubbling up to the top of my ballot
2. George Van Haltren - 1890s star
3. Bobby Doerr - great player
4. Joe Gordon - naturally next to Doerr
5. Ralph Kiner - too good to ignore
6. Bob Johnson - very good player
7. Willard Brown - negro league star
8. Tommy Bridges - with WWII and PCL credit
9. Bob Elliott - very good third baseman
10. Joe Medwick - very good peak
11. Eppa Rixey - steady eddie
12. Cupid Childs - overlooked star of the 1890s
13. George Sisler - sure-fire HOM first half of career
14. Clark Griffith - could be higher, star pitcher of 1890s
15. Dobie Moore - I may have him too low
-----
16. Joe Sewell - these guys are largely interchangeable on my ballot
17. Cool Papa Bell - negro league star
18. Edd Roush - deserves another look
19. Pie Traynor - was so overrated he's now underrated
20. Chuck Klein - too much to ignore

Group top 10 not on my ballot: Bob Lemon (he's around 30) and Biz Mackey (around 100).

‘Tis the season…

Merry Christmas, all.

And happy birthday to Pud Galvin, Nellie Fox, Ned Garver, Quincy Trouppe and the rest of the gang.

Strange, but nice, not to have Red Ruffing on my ballot anymore. Some reshuffling below, but no huge changes.

1967 ballot:

1. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 7th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). SWW believes that Negro Leaguers would be astonished by Bell not being in our HOM. I wonder if the HOF Negro League committee will be similarly astonished. (eligible 1948, PHOM 1957)

2. Bob Lemon: He doesn’t have the eye-popping seasons that peak voters like, but there aren’t a lot of pitchers who could match his 9 consecutive seasons of sustained excellence. He’s at the top of my “moderate” career-length pitchers (~2500-3000IP) and is more of a workhorse in context than Mays or Ferrell, his 2 closest comps. (eligible 1964, PHOM 1964)

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

6. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

7. Eppa Rixey: Long career, solid performer, innings-eater. (eligible 1939)

8. Joe Medwick: Ducky Wucky, The Gladiator & Indian Bob are all very close. There are many people who are very close in this neighborhood. (eligible 1954)

9. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

10. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916)

11. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. Drops a bit. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

12. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. On the ballot for the first time. Happy Father’s Day! :-) (eligible 1961)

13. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley after Mackey & Pete Hill. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson). (eligible 1943)

14. Clark Griffith: Hanging on. See him as the most deserving player left from the ‘90s. (eligible 1912, PHOM 1945)

15. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

the next five:
16. Bobby Doerr (eligible 1957)
17. Carl Mays (eligible 1935)
18. Pete Browning (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
19. Pie Traynor (eligible 1941)
20. Waite Hoyt (eligible 1944)

Required comment:
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.


PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940)

This will have to be brief, as it's Xmas and my laptop (where I keep the template for my ballot comments) is asleep until we get back to Toronto and our wireless connection.

1) George Van Haltren: Consolidated league, long career, nice WARP1, etc. Played when Santa was known as Kris Kringle.
2) Eppa Rixey: Might not have fashioned the high-quality toys, but showed up in Santa's workshop for a long time.
3) Jake Beckley: 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB. Plus, Mrs. Claus thinks he's cute.
4) Quincy Trouppe: Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances.
5) Dick Redding: He's sure worked his way up the ballot. A bit better than Lemon.
6) Bob Lemon: Very nice 9-year prime according to WARP.
7) Cupid Childs: Played 2B as well as Doerr, Gordon, et al. And did it during an era that was much more perilous for middle IF-ers.
8) Bob Elliott: Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Unfairly underrated by Win Shares.
9) Edd Roush: 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated in my mind.
10) Alejandro Oms: Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
11) Wally Schang: Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time, and he was no offensive slouch.
12) Jimmy Ryan: Got more votes than GVH once. League quality issues mean he ranks eleven spots lower.
13) George Sisler: Seven seasons of prime, plus eight more as an average 1B.
14) Clark Griffith: Back on the ballot after a long absence. 1898 really makes or breaks his candidacy.
15) Biz Mackey: Also back. Methuselah behind the plate, though not the hitter Schang or Trouppe were.

16) Hugh Duffy
17) Bucky Walters
18) Joe Medwick
19) Joe Sewell
20) Eddie Cicotte

Cool Papa Bell is around #27. I can handle long career length + limited offense from two positions: shortstop (Reese) and catcher (Mackey). Centerfield, not so much.

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas.

1967 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

5. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

6. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

7. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

8. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

9. Joe Medwick – His ‘highs’ are enough to land him in the lower part of my ballot.

10. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

14. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me

15. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

16. Frank Chance - The opposite of Beckley. Was the standard for excellence at his position but injuries did him in. Tragic that it was the "competitive" nature of his opposition that caused him part of his career and shortened his life.

17. Jose Mendez - Peak pitching candidate similar to Wadell. However, a little bit unsure on how much to credit him for his bookend years and ends up here.

18. Bob Lemon - Impressive run as on of the top pitchers in his league but see some contemporaries as better. However, he is a worthy candidate.

19. Eppa Rixey - Makes my top 20. Edges Ruffing in my pitcher rankingts because of some war credit and Ruffing's slow start.

20. Joe Gordon- Makes the last spot. Very good to great career at second base with some war credit included.

1967 Ballot

Not many changes this week.

1. (2) Eppa Rixey. His top ERA+ seasons run 144 (in two shortened seasons), 143, 142, 139, 136, 129, 124, which is pretty good for a guy who also pitched almost 4500 innings. He looks even better if you give him war credit for 1918 and make an allowance for 1919, which, combined with pitching for a lot of mediocre teams and getting lousy run support, almost certainly cost him the chance to win 300 games.

2. (3) Dobie Moore. Terrific peak for a middle infielder. With a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (4) Larry Doyle. Outstanding hitter (126 OPS+) for a middle infielder and the best position player on some very good Giant teams of the 00s and 10s. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from what I’ve read about him.

4. (5) Joe Medwick. Rivals Ott as the best OF in all of MLB between 1935-1937, which is a significant peak-level of performance, and he has a few all-star caliber seasons on either side of that. Didn’t do much past the age of 30, but still ended up with over 8000 career plate appearances.

5. (6) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.86 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

6. (7) Edd Roush. Among the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons and a year in which he was arguably the best player on a team that won a World Series. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

7. (8) Geo. Van Haltren. I don’t think he was as good as Slaughter, but he has the same basic argument. Did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

8. (9) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

9. (10) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was an outstanding player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick and Roush.

10. (11) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, of course, but also Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76. Had he pitched more innings per season, I’d have him much higher—regardless of how troubled he may have been. As it was, his career was relatively short, but he did pitch almost 3,000 innings.

11. (12) Cool Papa Bell. Long career in which he contributed many positive things (speed, fielding, lots of singles) to his teams that may not be reflected in his modest OPS+.

12. (13) Tommy Bridges. A poor hitter and not much of a workhorse—though he did finish in the top 10 in innings 5 times—but I’ll live with that from a guy with six 140 ERA+ seasons in the 1930s and 40s American League.

13. (14) George J. Burns. In some ways I like him better than Edd Roush. Roush may have better rate stats, but Burns rarely missed a game and averaged 25.6 Win Shares for a decade. Had 3 MVP-caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919.) Seems to have been about the perfect leadoff hitter for his times--could get on base, run, field, and his teams won a lot of games.

14. (15) Alejandro Oms. In my mind I have long had him grouped with Wheat and Roush. Maybe Slaughter would be a comp as well. Riley suggests his skills were similar to Waner’s, though maybe that’s too generous. Other names (Cuyler, Beckley, Simmons, Duffy) are mentioned in his thread, and Minoso comes to mind as well. Either way, he was clearly an outstanding player for a long time who seems like he should be around the mythical HoM in/out line.

15. (16) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF. Seems to have a slightly better HoM argument than Doerr, Lazzeri, or Stephens.

Next 5
16. Hugh Duffy. Outstanding Win Shares.
17. Quincy Trouppe. Best of the eligible catchers?
18. Jimmie Ryan. Still waiting.
19. Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+ in 6200 PAs is hard to ignore.
20. Tommie Leach. Great glove, average bat, long career.

Required disclosures:

Bob Lemon. Currently #21 on my ballot. A very good pitcher, but I’m not convinced I should place him any higher.

Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe. He’s around #30 on my ballot.

41 ballots cast so far. 80 candidates receiving votes, so far, which I think is a record. (I'm just counting the 1-15 ballots.) Record low average consensus score is a near-cinch.

Merry Christmas everyone! Hope everyone got what they wanted, not what they deserved. (Oh wait, this is the Hall of Merit, not the Lounge. I take that back.) It really feels like we're deep in the backlog now, but that's what makes it fun. Willard Brown and Bill Terry make my PHoM this year.

1. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

2. Bill Monroe (3) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

3. Bob Lemon (4) Best available pitcher by my rating system. I think he’s very comparable to Ferrell, with a similar (though lower) peak, and a longer period of effectiveness. Made my PHoM in 1964.

4. Willard Brown (6) I can't say I'm completely certain of this ranking, with the questions about his walk rate and level of competition. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the OF below him on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years. Makes my PHoM this year.

(4A Bill Terry)

5. Joe Sewell (7) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. For example, while I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). With one possible exception, clearly the best SS on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Dobie Moore (8) The possible exception, because we honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Came close to my PHoM this year, but his peak, while better than Terry's, wasn't a LOT better.

7. Eppa Rixey (11) Climbing up the ballot lately because he does well in head-to-head comparisons. From a less-well-represented era overall, although not really in terms of pitching (lots of overlap at either end of his career).

8. Dick Redding (5) Slides down as Rixey moves up, because on direct comparison he suffers a bit. Had a better peak, but Rixey looks like a better prime, with 8 seasons over 20 WS to Redding's 6, plus much more career value.

9. Quincy Trouppe (15) After the discussion of the MLEs and how many ABs he had, makes up some but not all of the ground he lost last election. Still, a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. Made my PHoM in 1961.

10. Cupid Childs (9) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

11. George Van Haltren (10) It may be the case that I just don’t want to move him ahead of Childs because only one is in my PHoM. OTOH, I didn’t make that choice easily, and I can’t say there’s been any major new evidence since then. Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy. I do find it hard to understand how anyone could have Beckley ahead.
(11A Max Carey)

12. Bobby Doerr (12) He's clearly behind Herman on career and peak, and wasn't clearly the best of his era as Childs was. I’m still not sure that something isn’t screwy with WARP’s defensive evaluation of him, but after further review, it’s not historically unique.

13. Joe Medwick (13) With his peak, he's probably just barely ahead of Bob Johnson. I’ve said this before, but if you look at their 13 best seasons (which include all Medwick’s significant seasons), he’s 1 WS/yr ahead of Johnson, and behind him on WARP. I do not understand the huge disparity in their votes.

14. Bob Johnson (14) His record doesn't look too different from Averill's. I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons.

15. Bus Clarkson (16) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.

16. Jose Mendez (18) Yeah, noise gets results, of a sort. It was more the comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers that impressed me, though. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer.
17. Gavvy Cravath (21) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Starting to think his unique career may be more worthy than Bob Mediwck.
18. Alejandro Oms (17) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(18A Red Ruffing)
19. Jake Beckley. (22) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
20. Phil Rizzuto (19) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
21. Biz Mackey (27) Like Trouppe, gets some of his lost ground back. Maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
22. Bob Elliott (23) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
23. Cool Papa Bell (24) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
24. Ben Taylor (25) Slides behind Beckley for now, but they’re close. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
(24A Sam Thompson, 24B Rube Foster)
25. Joe Gordon (26) Not that far from Doerr, should probably be a little higher.
26. Charlie Keller (28) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
(26A Hughie Jennings)
27. Bucky Walters (29) Ferrell/Lemon Lite? Very impressive peak, but wartime takes some of the air out.
28. Vern Stephens (30) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto
29. George Sisler (31) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
30. Dick Lundy (32) Definitely don't see him as up to Sewell's level.
31. Clark Griffith (33) Simply not enough better than his non-HoM contemporaries for me.
32. Bobby Veach
33. Rube Waddell
34. Roger Bresnahan
35. Pie Traynor
36. Chuck Klein
37. Ralph Kiner
38. Burleigh Grimes
39. Jimmy Ryan
40. Tony Lazzeri

Busy week - I did review the ballot, but didn't see a reason to shuffle it.

1. Eppa Rixey SP (3) - Like Ruffing, a Nolan Ryan / Don Sutton / Phil Niekro HoMer. Very similar Ruffing. Low peak for pitchers on this list, but so much career value.
2. Jake Beckley 1B (4) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.
3. Gavy Cravath RF (5) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
4. Luke Easter 1B (6) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
5. Ralph Kiner LF (7) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
6. Charley Jones LF (8) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
7. Bob Lemon SP (9) - Impressive peak - note, Prospectus recalibrated their numbers again, so if you are comparing Lemon to old numbers you've input into a spreadsheet or something, you need to update everyone else's numbers too. The new numbers are making all pitchers look worse from what I've observed.
8. Bucky Walters SP (10) - I was underrating him. I took a look at his RSI page - back when it existed, and he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call. I have him a hair behind Lemon right now.
9. Phil Rizzuto SS (11) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously.
10. Clark Griffith SP (12) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity or Three-Finger Brown from Griffith?
11. Joe Medwick LF (13) - Looking at Kiner made me realize I had Medwick too low.
12. George Van Haltren CF (14) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 30, very tough to evaluate.
13. Virgil Trucks SP (15) - Hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him between Ruffing and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here. I overrated him just a little last time, Lemon and Walters have significantly higher peak with similar career value.
14. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (16) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
15. Vern Stephens SS (17) - I love shortstops that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Clearly better than Doerr IMO.

Honorable Mention:

16. Dutch Leonard SP (18) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
17. Dobie Moore SS (19) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. But I've been convinced that he played enough (the level of play was never in quesiton) that I should move him way up compared with where I had him. This is similar to where I've put Hughie Jennings in the past.
18. Bill Monroe 2B (20) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
19. Ernie Lombardi C (21) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
20. Biz Mackey C (22) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
21. Cool Papa Bell CF (23) - Awful lot of career value there. Bill James had him in his top 100 all-time. Which of us is missing the boat?
22. Jimmy Ryan OF (24) - Could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
23. Joe Gordon 2B (25) - Lost two prime years, was cranking out 9-11 WARP1 seasons annually (1939-43) before military service.
24. Bobby Doerr 2B (26) - Too close to call w/Gordon right now.
25. Wally Schang C (27) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
26. George Sisler 1B (28) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
27. Bob Elliott 3B (29) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
28. Dizzy Trout SP (30) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
29. Tommy Bridges SP (31) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
30. Quincy Trouppe C (32) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
31. Joe Sewell SS/3B (33) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
32. Urban Shocker SP (34) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
33. Burleigh Grimes SP (35) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
34. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (36) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
35. Bob Johnson LF (37) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
36. Dom DiMaggio CF (38) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
37. Ed Williamson 3B (39) - Still on the board after 60+ years.
38. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (40) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
39. Willard Brown LF (41) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.
40. Dick Redding SP (42) - Can't see him as better than Grimes, but he's back on the board.
41. Rube Waddell SP (43) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
42. Walker Cooper C (44) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
43. Mike Griffin CF (45) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
44. Hugh Duffy OF (46) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan.
45. Edd Roush CF (47) - Weak league hurts him.
46. Ben Taylor 1B (48) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is.
47. Pie Traynor 3B (49) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Could move significantly higher once I get a better handle on this.
48. Mel Harder SP (50) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
49. Billy Nash 3B (51) - Similar to Traynor, forgot about him on the 3B re-evaluation.
50. Vic Willis SP (52) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
51. Bobo Newsom SP (53) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
52. Dick Lundy SS (54) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
53. Don Newcombe SP (55) - Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see anyway possible to rank him ahead of Mel Harder. I think this is probably too high.
54. Bobby Avila 2B (56) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
55. Alvin Dark SS (57) - Shortstops that can hit league are a valuable commodity.
56. John McGraw 3B (58) - More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
57. Alejandro Oms OF (59) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
58. George Scales SS (60) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
59. Lave Cross 3B (61) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. More re-evaluation to follow in the coming weeks.
60. Mickey Vernon 1B (62) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
61. Pete Browning CF (63) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation.
62. Cupid Childs 2B (63) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time.
63. Larry Gardner 3B (64) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
63. Larry Doyle 2B (65) - Ditto
64. Tommy Henrich RF (66) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
65. Charlie Keller LF (67) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.

Ned Garver - Some pretty huge years, played for some bad teams. Could be on the list if he'd had some breaks.

43 ballots up to this point. Still missing ballots from: Thane of Bagarath, Ken Fischer, Tiboreau, Brad G.Max Parkinson, RmC, and PhillyBooster.

Updating OCF's tally, a record 81 candidates have seen their names on a ballot.

1967 Ballot

I've belatedly updated my rankings to include the October 23rd
changes to the BP stats. It primarily affects the placement of pitchers (Rixey moves up significantly).

None of the new guys make a splash. Garver and Antonelli are in the low-60s. I was surprised that Klu's peak was so low.

1) Ben Taylor
He's been in the top 5 on my ballot since 1958. I see him as equal to, or slightly better than, Suttles in the NeL 1B rankings.

2) Dick Redding
3) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

4) Eppa Rixey
BP boost to his #s makes him even more career-tastic. In a tight group of pitchers, this adjustment and a slight boost for WWI credit bumps him to the top of the heap.

5) Bucky Walters
6) Dizzy Trout
Both of these guys have similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peaks (~48), but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

7) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares, new WARP helps him slide past Ducky.

8) Joe Medwick
Best 3yr./5yr. WS numbers of any eligible hitter (109/157). WARP seems to think his peak is mor in the middle of the pack (44.3 in top 5 non-consecutive years).

9) Bob Lemon
Best 5yr. WARP3 of any eligible pitcher (52.3), in no small part thanks to his 82 OPS+.

10) Bobby Doerr
Best of the middle infielder heap.

11) Dutch Leonard
He's not far behind the pitcher glut at the top of the ballot.

12) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories make him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent.

13) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

14) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the >130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135
top 5 WS.

15) Pete Browning
A slight reduction in the WARP discounting of his league/era moves the slugger up to the bottom of the ballot.

16) Jack Quinn-Probably the biggest benficiary of BP revisions.
17) Bobo Newsom-Decent career, but low peak and bad hitter.
18) Vic Willis-Also benefits from BP update (up from #46).
19) Urban Shocker
20) Spotswood Poles

Rest of the Top 50
21) Alejandro Oms
22) Joe Gordon
23) Bill Monroe
24) Jimmy Ryan
25) Charlie Keller
26) Clark Griffith--closer to the ballot, but still not quite there.
27) Dizzy Dean
28) Burleigh Grimes--up from #55
29) Rube Waddell
30) Dick Lundy
31) Mel Harder
32) Tommy Bridges
33) Leon Day
34) Ralph Kiner
35) Sal Maglie
36) Ed Cicotte
37) Virgil Trucks
38) Waite Hoyt
39) John Donaldson
40) Lon Warneke
41) Dom DiMaggio
42) Dobie Moore
43) Tommy Leach
44) Ray Dandridge
45) Bob Johnson
46) Harry Hooper
47) Paul Derringer
48) Murray Dickson
49) Bob Elliott
50) Edd Roush

Consensus Top 10 Not in Top 50
54) Biz Mackey-Still highest ranked catcher on my ballot.
55) George Sisler-Not quite good enough for long enough.
62) Jake Beckley
101) Cupid Childs--He has fallen out of my "consideration set," perhaps I should re-evaluate him.

I hope that everyone had a safe and Happy Christmas and/or Haunukkah. Happy Boxing Day to Daryn, Karl and Trevor as well.

1967 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Cravath and Moore)

1. Dick Redding

One of the 5 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Waddell and Griffith have fallen off my ballot, but plaques are forever…), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. George Sisler
4. Bob Lemon

Swapped this week, but both holding strong.

5. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

8. Dobie Moore

Jumps on the ballot as a MP HoM electee. Welcome.

9. Bucky Walters

Another pitcher who could hit. Perhaps the best NL pitcher between Hubbell and Spahn?

10. George Burns

I have lessened my 1910-mid 20s AL-NL penalty. Burns is helped.

11. Quincy Trouppe

He could rise.

12. John McGraw
13. Bobby Veach
14. Joe Medwick
15. Ned Williamson

16. Willard Brown
17. Joe Sewell
18. Bobo Newsom
19. Bill Monroe
20. Tony Lazzeri

Previous Top 10s:

Cool Papa Bell – I alternate between thinking that I’m missing something, and thinking that he’s another Max Carey, who I have ranked as near the bottom of electees. Papa is 22.
Mackey is 24.
Rixey has been on and off – depending on how much I value IP vs. ERA+. 27 this week.
Griffith is in the MP HoM. He’s 32.
GVH is not my kind of hitter (decent prime but not a great peak). He’s 115.

Wow... I'm in a different time zone for the holiday and I'm used to the election being done at 5. Still more time I guess.

I'm back from my party, so the results should be on time. Don't know if the numbers will be totally correct, though, since I haven't received any other tallies yet.

The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.