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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, January 30, 2006

1969 Ballot

Notable newbies: Stan Musial, Yogi Berra, Early Wynn, Gil Hodges, Sherm Lollar, Vic Wertz, and Diomedes Olivo.

Top-ten returnees: Biz Mackey, Clark Griffith, George Van Haltren, Cool Papa Bell, George Sisler, Bobby Doerr, Jake Beckley and Willard Brown.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2006 at 04:35 AM | 84 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2006 at 01:53 PM (#1843610)
I've taken much of the discussion of players from the forties to heart, so I did a little more work on them. I think my ballot is a little more fairer to them, but without use any nefarious timelining techniques. :-)

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont be on my ballot).

1) Stan Musial-1B/LF/RF/CF (n/e): Ridiculously qualified, whichever position you want to pigeon-hole him into. :-) Best NL left fielder for 1942. Best ML right fielder for 1943, 1944, 1948, 1949, and 1954. Best ML left fielder for 1950, 1951, and 1953. Best ML center fielder for 1952. Best ML first baseman for 1946, 1955, 1956, 1957, and 1958.

2) Yogi Berra-C/LF/RF (n/e): Best ML catcher of the fifties. Would have been an easy choice for #1 normally, but an even bigger inner-circle candidate was eligible this "year." Best ML catcher for 1948, 1950, 1952, 1954, 1956, 1957, close in 1958, and 1959. Best AL catcher for 1949, 1951, 1953, 1955, 1958, and 1960.

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Alejandro Oms-CF (2): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (3): May deserve to go ahead of Oms. At any rate, I'm sold that he was an outstanding player.

6) Cupid Childs-2B (4): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

7) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (5): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

8) George Van Haltren-CF/P (6): Long career of quality play. Best NL leftfielder for 1889 and best AA leftfielder for 1891.

9) Jake Beckley-1B (8): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

10) Joe Gordon-2B (n/e): Best second baseman of the 1940's; major oversight on my part. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

11) Mickey Welch-P (11): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (10): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (n/e): Why Kell, but not Elliott? Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

14) Pete Browning-CF/LF (13): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

15) Buzz Arlett-RF/P (n/e): I'm comfortable enough with his MLEs to place him here. A truly unique career. Probably would have been the best major league right fielder for 1926 if he had been allowed to play.

Mackey, Sisler, Griffith, Doerr, and Bell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2006 at 01:56 PM (#1843613)
Here's Brent's ballot:

I will be traveling during next week’s election; could you please count this as my final ballot.

Thank you.

1969 Ballot:

No surprises here – Musial and Berra are selected for my personal hall of merit.

1. Stan Musial – Inner circle; 3-time MVP and runner up 4 times. I have him ranked as the # 6 ballplayer to date. (PHoM 1969)

2. Yogi Berra – Another 3-time MVP; runner up 2 times. On this year’s ballot, he’s closer to # 1 than to # 3. (PHoM 1969)

3. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. It’s funny, I’ve always thought that contributing to a winning team should be a point in a player’s favor. (PHoM 1931)

4. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 124 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

5. Phil Rizzuto – Excellence with the glove is meritorious too. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

6. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

7. Cool Papa Bell – Very comparable to Ashburn, but with a little more power and not quite as many walks. (PHoM 1968)

8. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA (PHoM 1966)

9. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

10. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

11. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley.

12. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

13. Burleigh Grimes – Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, 27-29) he averaged 21-12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 115 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. (PHoM 1940)

14. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley.

15. Charlie Keller – Four seasons with 33+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). OPS+ above 140 every season from 1939-47.

Near misses:

16. Roger Bresnahan
17. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
18. Buzz Arlett
19. Early Wynn – Over 9 seasons (1943, 47, 50-52, 54-56, 59) he averaged 20-11, 2.0 wins above team, 257 IP, 117 DERA+, 64 OPS+. CYA for 1959. Very similar to Burleigh Grimes and Red Ruffing; I’ve rated him a little lower because his 3 best seasons weren’t quite as good.
20. Dick Redding
21-25: Gordon, Cravath, Kiner, Pesky, Easter.

Other consensus top 10:

38. Bobby Doerr – I can't see placing him ahead of Gordon.

39. George Van Haltren – A good player, but I don’t see that he was better than (for example) George Burns or Spottswood Poles.

49. George Sisler – Career value is hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime are not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Not in my top 100. Jake Beckley – Thank you to Kelly for documenting the case against JB.

Other new arrivals:

I’ve ranked Gil Hodges at # 53, Sherm Lollar at # 74; Vic Wertz doesn't make my top 100.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: January 30, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#1843659)
Musial an NB, Berra almost but not quite, Wynn also in there as I like Rixey. Hodges just below Hooper. Lollar and Wertz just off the bottom of consideration set. Good group of newbies.

1. (N/A) Stan Musial Not as good as Ted, better than anyone else since at least Gehrig if not Ruth. TB+BB/PA .608 , TB+B/Outs 1.003 159 OPS+, but 3630 hits adds oomph.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (N/A) Yogi Berra. Surprisingly close to the Schnozz, whom I think we’re undervaluing, but a better fielder. 2150 hits at 125 OPS+. TB+BB/PA .520, TB+BB/Outs .772. Poor choice of teams, though.

4. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
3-2-2-3-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

5. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A) Early Wynn 300-244, 4564 innings at 106 ERA+ not as good as Rixey, though more wins. Better than Grimes -- longer career. Missed 1945 but 43-44 should be discounted slightly. Would look better without early Washington part of his career (228-157 at about 115.) Hit nicely for his era – 53 OPS+

9. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just below Wynn.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.
   4. karlmagnus Posted: January 30, 2006 at 02:55 PM (#1843660)
11. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-
10-9-9) Clark Griffith. Credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

12. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

13. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

14. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

15. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14-14-14-13-12) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.


16. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back off ballot after a few years just on.

17. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

18. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

19. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

20. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

21. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

22. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

23. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

24. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

25. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
26. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
28. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
29. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
30. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.
31. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
32. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
33. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
34. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. Bob Elliott
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
45. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Joe Gordon.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Gil Hodges Significantly shorter career than Hooper/Ashburn, but a bit better. No war credit, I think. 1921 hits at 120 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .539, TB+BB/Outs .807
62. Jules Thomas.
63. Wilbur Cooper
64. Bruce Petway.
65. Jack Clements
66. Bill Monroe
67. Jose Mendez
68. Herb Pennock
69. Chief Bender
70. Ed Konetchy
71. Jesse Tannehill
72. Bobby Veach
73. Lave Cross
74. Tommy Leach.
75. Tom York
   5. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 30, 2006 at 03:00 PM (#1843668)
Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120.

Funny corrector? Do you think their parks were close to being similar?
   6. Rusty Priske Posted: January 30, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#1843756)
PHoM matches me 'elect-me' votes.

1. Stan Musial (new) - Over 600 WS makes this a slam dunk.

2. Yogi Berra (new) - As close to 3 as 1, which makes him an easy 2.

3. George Van Haltren (5,1,3) - Are people coming around on him? Won't matter this year.

4. Willard Brown (1,6,8) - I flip flop him with GVH.

5. Jake Beckley (4,4,7)

6. Cool Papa Bell (9,8,10)

7. Biz Mackey (6,7,9)

8. Mickey Welch (8,5,6)

9. Dobie Moore (7,9,11)

10. George Sisler (10,10,12)

11. Hugh Duffy (11,12,13)

12. Tommy Leach (12,11,14)

13. Early Wynn (new)

14. Edd Roush (13,13,15)

15. Quincy Trouppe (15,15,18)

16-20. Griffith, Ryan, Doerr, Rice, Childs
21-25. Redding, Sewell, Smith, Streeter, White
26-30. Strong, Gleason, Grimes, Kiner, Willis
   7. OCF Posted: January 30, 2006 at 05:25 PM (#1843886)
1969 ballot.

1. Stanley Frank Musial (new) The greatest Cardinal of all time; if Albert Pujols even wants to join the conversation, he'll have to keep doing what he's been doing for a long, long time. Purely by offense: If I place him among the corner outfielders, he's well behind Ruth and Williams but well ahead of Ott. As a CF, his offense would be between Speaker and Cobb; as a 1B, it would be Gehrig's peak closely balanced against his career on offense, and Stan would have the defensive advantage.
2. Lawrence Peter Berra (new) By a small margin, our best-hitting white catcher ever.
3. Larry Doyle (3, 4, 3, 2, 1) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
4. George Van Haltren (6, 5, 5, 3, 2) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
5. Ralph Kiner (7, 8, 7, 5, 4) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
6. Early Wynn (new) A very long career; had his good years and his bad years. Clearly behind his near-contemporary Roberts, but arguably comparable to the just-elected Rixey.
7. Joe Sewell (9, 9, 8, 6, 5) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
8. Quincy Trouppe (17, 9, 9, 7, 6) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
9. Biz Mackey (12, 11, 10, 8, 7) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Berra didn't have quite the hitting career needed for election as a corner player.
10. Jose Mendez (13, 12, 11, 9, 8) A peak-value pitching candidate.
11. Dick Redding (14, 13, 12, 10, 9) A career-value pitching candidate.
12. Jake Beckley (10, 14, 13, 11, 10) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
13. Bob Elliott (16, 17, 15, 13, 11) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
14. Mickey Vernon (-, 16, 16, 14, 12) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak. My new oddity vote
15. Willard Brown (17, 17, 15, 15, 13) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.

16. Hugh Duffy (18, 19, 18, 16, 15)
17. Bucky Walters (19, 20, 19, 17. 16) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
18. Phil Rizzuto (20, 21, 20, 18, 17) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
19. Cupid Childs (21, 22, 21, 19, 18) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
20. Joe Gordon (22, 23, 22, 20, 19) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.

21. Tommy Bridges (23, 24, 23, 21, 20) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
22. Cool Papa Bell (24, 25, 24, 22, 21) A legend, of course, with a very long career. He's down here because I'm not sure his peak is any better than Willie Wilson's.
23. Edd Roush (25, 26, 25, 23, 22) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
24. George Sisler (26, 27, 26, 24, 23) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
25. Vern Stephens (27, 28, 27, 25, 24)
26. Bobby Doerr (28, 29, 28, 26, 25)
27. Dobie Moore (29, 30, 29, 27, 26) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (30, -, 30, 28, 27)
29. Frank Chance (---, 29, 28) A great, great player - when he was in the lineup, which is the problem.
30. Rube Waddell (---, 30, 29)

Gil Hodges: a class act perhaps; a beloved player and manager. But when it comes down to the numbers, just another first basemen; there have been a lot of them.
Clark Griffith: going by RA+ and IP, I have trouble putting him ahead of Vic Willis.
   8. Kelly in SD Posted: January 30, 2006 at 05:27 PM (#1843890)
1969 Ballot

Things are really hectic, but I am in the process of reconsidering the War-era players. It probably won't show up until the 1971 ballot however.

PHOM Inductees: Musial and Berra

1. Stan Musial – PHOM 1969: 10 times one of the 3 best outfielders in NL, 6 times best first baseman, 8 times best player in league. Over-qualified.

2. Yogi Berra – PHOM 1969: 13 years best catcher in AL, 8 times best in majors. 6 times top-5 player in AL, 2 more in top 10.

3. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901 - The weight of the evidence.

4. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906 - I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Career OPS+ of 149.

5. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921 - The third best peak and prime. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League.

6. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957 - WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Great peak and prime.
Only Pete Browning and Stan Musial have a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152.
Was an on-base machine, with the 5th highest OBP among eligibles behind Musial, McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. His .518 SLG is 7th.
Among position players in WS: 1939 -22-14th (rookie year). 1940 – 24 ws – 9th. 1941 – 32 ws – 4th. 1942 – 34 ws – 2nd. 1943 – 36 ws – 2nd. 1946 – 31 ws – 4th. For six years, only Dimaggio and Williams were better (and Musial, but that’s NL).

7. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918 - Adjusted for season length, only Browning and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime. (And Musial and Berra)
An A+ outfielder for his career who played less than 50% of his games in center.
He was 2nd in 1890 PL. 1891 AA 3rd. 1892 NL 5th. 1893 NL 1st (tied). 1894 NL 1st. 1895 NL 11th. 1897 8th. 1898 13th.

8. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958 - Best National League pitcher between Hubbell and Roberts/Spahn. This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts.
3 times best pitcher in NL and by a large amount each year. He missed by 1 win share in 1941 of leading the league 4 times.
Only 3 eligibles have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Dean has more Black Ink.
Faced tougher average opponents then any real candidate. Only Nap Rucker, Thorton Lee, and Eddie Smith faced tougher.

9. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960 - Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me.

10. Alejandro Ohms – PHOM 1964 - Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic.
His thread says everything I would say, but better.

11. Cupid Childs - PHOM 1932 - Childs was the best second basemen of the 1890s by a wide margin. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year of the decade. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.

12. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942 - Only Wynn has a higher career win share total. Tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. Highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers.
First in NL twice (1899, 1901).
Top 10 pitcher in 1902 (2nd), 1903 (9th), 1906 (2nd), 1907 (9th), 1908 (8th), 1909 (5th)

13. Jose Mendez- PHOM 1967: Big beneficiary of rereading his thread. Fantastic peak/prime. And did really well against top-of-the-line white teams. REREAD HIS THREAD.

14. Tommy Leach - PHOM 1966 - I know Leach split time in centerfield along with third, but I see him as the most qualified 3rd baseman by far. 7 Gold Gloves by win shares. 5 times a win shares All-Star. Instrumental in the great Pittsburgh defenses of the first 15 years of the 20th century.
Rank in LG: 5 times top 5, 2 more top 10.

15. Dobie Moore – PHOM 1967: No infielder has such a great peak. I give 3 years credit for Army play. An all-star every year he was healthy.
Please review the information on his thread.

Drop offs: Chance and Burns.
   9. Kelly in SD Posted: January 30, 2006 at 05:41 PM (#1843915)
16. Frank Chance:

17. George Burns – PHOM 1938

17a. Richie Ashburn:

18. Early Wynn – peak and prime are not fantastic, though better than Rixey and Ruffing. Long career so good totals. Should make my ballot next year.

19. Burleigh Grimes – PHOM 1961

20. Willard Brown - Dropping from my previous estimation because I reconsidered his dominance of the NAL in light of his competition and the lack of walks. I had to balance the lack of walks with the small base upon which those are based. His power is certainly impressive. Does he remind anyone else of Jeff Francoeur? Maybe Soriano is a valid comp? I am just trying better understand him. Could return to the ballot if I reconsider having some positional balance.

21. Luke Easter

22. Wilbur Cooper - Similar to Grimes, just 700 fewer innings and better defensive support. A 4 time STATS all-star, 6 times win shares all-star.

Mackey: 24th on list. Peak and prime was not as high as I thought it would be. Poor second half of his career.

George Sisler: 28th: Prime is not high enough to balance the not-great career. Does anyone have his home-road splits? Sportsman’s Park was such a great hitters park. I see him as a better Jimmy Ryan. A great first half of a career, but not enough in the second half.

Griffith: About 31st. Did not have the big years that his contemporaries did. Maybe that is why he had a longer career, but he definitely lacks the big years of Young, Nichols, Rusie, or McGinnity.

George Van Haltren: About 25th. PHOM 1939: Lots of year with 25 win shares once you adjust for schedule length. Unfortunately, the 1890s were the best decade for outfielders to put up big numbers and there were too many others who put up bigger numbers for him to make the ballot.

Cool Papa Bell: About 33rd. He suffers from the same difficulties as Beckley, except he was quite a bit better. Long career, but no peak and a low prime.

Jake Beckley: Will never make my ballot. No peak. Did not dominate the period between great first basemen. Best in majors only 2 times. Best in league only 1 more time. If he was the best position player on the team, the team would be lucky to be mediocre. That is not a HoMer.

Dick Redding: About 21st on the list. I see him as the 6th best available pitcher. He has a great peak and a very good prime, but the “seasonal” total is a little weak and the career is middle of the pack. Would be happy to see him in the HoM.

Bobby Doerr: I think his defense is overrated. His offense is way overrated because of Fenway Park. He did not take unique advantage of Fenway, everyone on the team hit well there. I prefer Gordon, Childs, Doyle, and Monroe. They all have better peaks and primes than Doerr, though by small margins.

Gil Hodges: In the top 10 of eligible first basemen, but down between Vernon and Camilli. He was the best first baseman of the 1950s, if you don’t count Musial, but there isn’t much competition if you don’t count Musial.

Sherm Lollar: I have him 8th among eligible catchers. A nice, late 1950s peak, but just not enough.

Vic Wertz: Not in my top 10 for his position.
   10. OCF Posted: January 30, 2006 at 06:32 PM (#1844031)
After just six votes ... somehow, I don't think we're going to repeat last year's nail-biting suspense. The average consensus score might even be positive.
   11. ronw Posted: January 30, 2006 at 07:00 PM (#1844110)
1969 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Stan Musial After last week’s excitement, we need something predictable. For 20+ years, nothing was more predictable than this gentleman.

2. Yogi Berra It’s over.

3. Dick Redding I’m flipping him with Browning, as I think that Redding’s number of seasons outweigh Browning’s peak.

4. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

5. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding.

6. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

7. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

8. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

9.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

10. Roger Bresnahan Second-best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

11. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

12. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

13. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Clark Griffith The Old Fox is looking better.

15. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak this week, and came away less Impressed.


16. George Sisler

17. Cool Papa Bell

18. Willard Brown

19. Ben Taylor

20. Alejandro Oms

Missing top 10

Bobby Doerr – Without war credit, he seems surprisingly similar to Johnny Evers. (Evers – 198.1 BWS in 1784 G, Doerr 196.4 BWS in 1865 G. Both stellar fielders (Evers A-, Doerr A).)

Jake Beckley – I’ve voted for Jake in the past, and probably will again before he is elected.


Early Wynn – Lost of PRAR, but few career PRAA. Still, when he was on, he was very good. Just out of the top 20.

Gil Hodges – Similar to Jake Daubert.

Sherm Lollar – Solid catcher, but below electability.

Vic Wertz – In the Johnny Callison/Wildfire Schulte mode. Good, but not spectacular power hitter for too short a time for the HOM.

Diomedes Olivo – I have a lot of trouble with the “quota” guys who played for teams (especially AL teams) during the ‘50s. It is hard to tell if their statistics are ability based or racism based. (The quota I refer to is the unofficial one that many teams had on the number of black players on a team.)
   12. Adam Schafer Posted: January 30, 2006 at 07:52 PM (#1844209)
Musial, Berra and Wynn are the 3 new additions to my ballot this year.

1. Stan Musial - didn't take any thinking to put him here

2. Yogi Berra - likewise

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. Wow, I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

5. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

6. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

7. Early Wynn - I'm not a strictly peak voter as others are, I'm all about career as long as there is some decent peak.

8. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman. Enough career to make my ballot.

9. Gavvy Cravath - Gavvy bursts onto my ballot this year. I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

10. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

11. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

12. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

13. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

14. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

15. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away. I did decide to move him up quite a bit, but I also felt the need to move Schang and Rixey down on my ballot after taking another look at them (yet again).

16. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

17. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

18. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

19. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan

20. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.
   13. DanG Posted: January 30, 2006 at 08:43 PM (#1844288)
No suspense, might as well vote. My #2 and #16 were elected. We’ll induct Musial and Berra in 1969, while Early Wynn also debuts. We should have some good discussion in 1970, with Snider, Minoso and Pierce coming on the ballot. In 1971, Spahn will be elected and Nellie Fox will be debated.

1) Stan Musial – Inner, inner circle, among the top dozen greatest.

2) Yogi Berra – Inner circle, top 50 in history.

3) Clark Griffith (1,1,2) – The #4 pitcher of his era, behind three first-balloters, but far ahead of #5. Like Leach et al, he doesn’t have that one big Wow! that gets voters excited. Career only seems short due to missing two years after contraction; peak only seems low because the contracted league is harder to dominate. Good hitter, too. A workhorse in his prime, averaging 332 IP from 1895-99, in seasons that were 15% shorter than today. Highest Complete Game Percentage 1893-1903, minimum 185 GS:
1—94.1% K. Nichols
2—93.4% C. Young
3—93.3% C. Griffith
4—92.4% A. Rusie

4) George Van Haltren (3,2,3) – I’ve been among his five best friends for 33 elections. As the ballot thins out he climbs up again. Now in his 61st year eligible. His day will come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

5) Tommy Leach (4,5,7) – Still in danger of Lost Cause status, but held his ground again last election. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. I’m now dunning him a bit more for league quality, as others have apparently done. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10—2182 T. Speaker
11—2156 T. Leach
12—2123 W. Keeler
13—2122 J. Sheckard
14—2087 S. Magee

6) George Sisler (5,6,8) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

7) Cool Papa Bell (6,9,13) – I supported Carey and I’m one of Leach’s best friends. Bell seems to be in the same mold: defense and speed are +++, hitting was solidly above average in a long prime. Moving up.

8) Early Wynn – Eerily similar to Rixey. Loonng career, workhorse, military service, weaker league. As usual, a conservative placement for the newbie. Pitchers with 4000+ IP, 1916-76:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing
5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons

9) Edd Roush (7,8,10) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he finished in the top 30 for the first time in six years. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

10) Biz Mackey (8,7,9) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he may be the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

11) Roger Bresnahan (9,11,14) – Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

12) Jimmy Ryan (10,12,12) – The Ryan express is back on track; finished higher than 40th for the first time since 1951. As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings. To those 17 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? The landmark decision in the jimd 1957 Ballot Affair affirmed the unconstitutionality of abandoning lost causes. Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

13) Bobby Doerr (11,13,15) – Consensus of ratings consulted puts him ahead of Gordon. Doerr over Childs; similar peaks and hitting, but Doerr was a much better glove and had a longer prime. Players with 1600 games at second base, 1876-1959:

1—2650 E. Collins
2—2209 C. Gehringer
3—2126 B. McPhee
4—2035 N. Lajoie
5—1852 B. Doerr
6—1813 B. Herman
7—1775 F. Frisch
8—1735 J. Evers
9—1728 L. Doyle
10—1719 R. Schoendienst
11-1687 D. Pratt

14) Jake Beckley (12,14,--) - Back, for awhile at least. He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

15) Wally Schang (13,15,--) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

Off Ballot

16) Dobie Moore – First time on my ballot in 1968, drops right off. If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him.

17) Burleigh Grimes – Before 1968, he was last on my ballot in 1945.

18) Cupid Childs – I’ve voted for him three times: 1914, 1915 and 1942. The backlog added since then still has not quite played itself out.

19) Hugh Duffy – Last appeared on my ballot 1941 thru 46.

20) Alejandro Oms – He haunts me, too.

21) Joe Gordon – Little difference between him and Doerr.
   14. Mark Donelson Posted: January 30, 2006 at 09:53 PM (#1844420)

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker.

I did another of my periodical pitching reviews this “year,” shifting emphasis away from WS and toward PRAA, and also to some extent taking ERA+ slightly more into account. The results bumped up Cicotte, Griffith (significantly), Dizzy Trout, and the newbie Wynn, and slightly demoted Willis, McCormick, Lemon, and Newcombe.

My pHOM welcomes Musial and Berra this time. Shocking, I know.

1. Stan Musial (pHOM 1969). As much of a no-brainer as Williams was.

2. Yogi Berra (pHOM 1969). The second-best catcher we’ve seen so far would be #1 nearly any other “year.”

3. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak.

4. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). We still need more pitchers, and to me, he looks like the best one still out there. Would have loved to see him pitch.

5. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m still his best friend, it seems. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

6. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in. As a peak voter, guess who I choose.

7. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another from that underrepresented era, and another infielder with a great peak.

8. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Underrated, though he drops ever so slightly as I ease off the WS for pitchers a bit. Impressive peak, lots of Ks.

10. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). Looks like a great hitter to me, even if he didn’t walk much.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

12. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers, other than the shoo-in Berra.

13. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s back! I had him pegged right in my first few votes. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

14. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Another underrated pitcher with an appealing peak.

15. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). I remain pretty lonely on Rosen, though I know he’s just off a couple other voters’ ballots. Normally even I don’t go for guys with peaks this short, but his position gives him a strong boost in my system.
   15. Mark Donelson Posted: January 30, 2006 at 09:56 PM (#1844431)
16-20: Keller, Sisler, Bresnahan, Cicotte, Gordon
21-25: C. Jones, Griffith, Doyle, [Reese], Browning, Redding
26-30: [Slaughter], Mackey, Berger, H. Wilson, Oms, Poles
31-35: Leach, Chance, Cravath, Joss, [Ashburn], Doerr
36-40: Roush, McCormick, Ryan, Burns, Dunlap
41-45: Pesky, Welch, Van Haltren, Grimes, Wynn
46-50: Veach, [Lemon], Rizzuto, McGraw, Trout, B. Johnson

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, but at #26, he is getting closer to my ballot.

•Griffith. Not great by WS, but a better PRAA peak than I’d realized. He’s the biggest gainer other than Trout from my latest pitcher analysis, rising to #22. He might even make my ballot before he gets elected!

•Van Haltren. Not a peak voter’s kind of hitter. He’s at #43.

•Bell. I took another look, but even with a bump to reduce the smoothing effect of the WS estimates, I still feel he’s just not a peak voter’s type, unless you go entirely on reputation. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Sisler. After a demotion some years back, he’s come back to the point where he’s dropping on and off my ballot, depending on who the new candidates are. Presently #17.

•Doerr. I see Gordon and several other middle infielders as significantly more deserving. He's midpack at #35.

•Beckley. The epitome of the “not a peak voter’s type” crowd. Not close to my top 50.

•Wynn. Better than I thought at first, but still not especially close on peak. Debuts at #45; I expect him to be elected shortly.

•Hodges. Underwhelming peak; he's not close to my top 50.

•Olivo. I just don’t feel I have enough to judge him on at the moment; he remains unranked for now.

•Lollar and Wertz get into the consideration set, but not that far (especially Wertz). None of the other new eligibles gets even that far.
   16. Jim Sp Posted: January 30, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#1844475)
Oms and Schoendienst reevaluations project delayed until next election, I’ll be out of town the rest of this week.

Wynn is HoVG, the 106 ERA+ didn't impress me even with all the innings, war credit, and hitting bonus. Lollar surprisingly I rate higher than Gil Hodges, who looks very overrated to me. Lollar had 1500+ games catching and a pretty good bat. Johnny Logan and Vic Wertz worth a quick look but nowhere near consideration.

3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
7)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
10)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too. PHoM in 1966.
11)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. In case you’re wondering, the modern (retired) 2Bs that I’m planning to take are Morgan, Grich, Alomar, Whitaker, Sandberg, Randolph, and Fox. The modern SSs would be Ripken, Larkin, Trammell, Ozzie, and Concepcion. I’ll have to think about Tony Fernandez and Fregosi . (Yount, Banks, Rose, Carew, etc. I count as multiposition).
12)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
13)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
14)Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit
15)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.
16)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
17)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.
18)Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. I see 15 obvious catching electees: Gibson, Bench, Fisk, Carter, Hartnett, Dickey, Piazza, Berra, Simmons, Ewing, Cochrane, Campanella, Parrish, Rodriguez, Santop. I’m an advocate for what I see as the next tier: Freehan, Munson, and Porter will get strong consideration on my ballot too. You can’t have a baseball team without a catcher. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL.

Griffith In my PHoM since 1912 but off the ballot at #28.
Sisler--#81, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Van Haltren--#73, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Childs--Steep discount for his domination of the 1890 AA, otherwise he would be higher. #52.
Moore--#32, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.
Willard Brown--Not convinced.
   17. DL from MN Posted: January 30, 2006 at 11:39 PM (#1844559)
1. Stan Musial - I wouldn't trade him if you offered me the next 3 on the ballot
2. Yogi Berra - Terrific hitter for a catcher, terrific catcher for a hitter
3. Biz Mackey - Giving Bob Boone credit for the defense and longevity but keeping the 98 OPS+
4. Clark Griffith - He's clearly better than his contemporaries
5. Cool Papa Bell - Better than Ashburn and I'd have Ashburn right about here.
6. Early Wynn - Not quite as good as Rixey but he had enough prime seasons to go with his extensive career value
7. George Van Haltren - I like him best out of that generation of CF
8. Quincy Trouppe - Anyone worth 40,000 Mexicans must have been special
9. Joe Sewell - I like him best of the infielders available mainly because he could play SS and the 2B couldn't
10. Bobby Doerr - I agree that Gordon could have been better but I see Doerr's one extra quality season giving him more certainty
11. Bob Johnson - Consistently very good for quite a while
12. Rube Waddell - Dominated for several years
13. Tommy Leach - I like him better than Beckley, fully qualified
14. Jake Beckley - I'm not his biggest fan but my system thinks solidly above average for a long time is an outlier.
15. Vic Willis - More career value than Griffith, less prime
16. Dick Redding - I have him as equal impact as Willis but fewer innings
17-20. Alejandro Oms, Gavy Cravath, Dobie Moore, Tommy Bridges
21-25. Jimmy Ryan, Edd Roush, Dizzy Trout, Joe Gordon, Willard Brown
26-30. Bucky Walters, Bob Elliott, George Sisler, Ralph Kiner, Cupid Childs

Hodges is down near 50, Lollar about 60, Wertz and Olivo are not in the top 100.
   18. OCF Posted: January 31, 2006 at 12:42 AM (#1844614)
Mark Donelson: I remain pretty lonely on Rosen,...

Elliott is not in your top 50. Why Rosen and not Elliott?
   19. Mark Donelson Posted: January 31, 2006 at 01:12 AM (#1844643)
Elliott is not in your top 50. Why Rosen and not Elliott?

I prefer Rosen's big though short peak--the one huge year and then several years that come up slightly better in my system. Even after the necessary adjustments to Elliott (who's just outside my top 50, for the record), his peak just isn't that exciting.

You're right, though--the distance between them may be too great, and Elliott may not be getting enough of my 3B boost. I'll look at that before next election.
   20. Cblau Posted: January 31, 2006 at 02:46 AM (#1844748)
Mr. Murphy,
I think it's time to modify that Gil Hodges comment. :^)
   21. caspian88 Posted: January 31, 2006 at 03:02 AM (#1844763)
1. Stan Musial: Best hitter on the ballot (including Negro Leaguers), one of the 20 best players ever, etc. 159 OPS+, 2568 RC, 15 consecutive years with 100+ RC (one year also missing due to WWII), 9 RC/27, B/B+ fielder.
2. Yogi Berra: Not quite as good a hitter as Willard Brown, but he played at a less-offensive position. Better hitter in a significantly long career than anyone else on the ballot. Decent fielder. 125 OPS+, 1261 RC, 7 consecutive seasons 80+ RC, 6.05 RC/27, B+ fielder at C.
3. Willard Brown: Walks aside, only Musial really beats him as a hitter, at least according to the stats in his thread. A shortstop and center fielder who could really hit, judging from his Win Shares and MLE's. He reminds me of Robin Yount, who would rate above Berra but not Musial. Brown's career length is what drops him below Berra.
4. Alejandro Oms: Using his Win Shares, he looks to not be quite as good as Brown, but better than anyone else. Great hitter, better than the people below him in that regard. Good fielder, it appears.
5. George Van Haltren: Very good hitter for a center fielder. He rates beter than Doerr for being a better hitter at a fielder's position. He appears to be an average fielder, maybe a touch above. His pitching doesn't really knock him down any. 121 OPS+, 1288 RC, 11 consec. seasons with 80+ RC, 6.28 RC/27, C+ fielder.
6. Bobby Doerr: Excellent hitter for a second baseman. He's better than Gordon because of the longer career and for being about as good even when playing. I did account for the war with both players. Gordon's best seasons were better, but Doerr was good for longer, and his peak isn't far behind Gordon. 115 OPS+, 1184 RC, 3 consec. years of 100+ RC and 6 more of 80+, 5.91 RC/27, A fielder.
7. Dick Redding: His Win Shares remind me of Steve Carlton, who's overrated on the basis of his K's, but who is still a great pitcher. The quality of play hurts him in comparison, of course.
8. George Sisler: I'm a big beleiver of peaks, and Sisler does have an awesome peak. 1916-1922 is just awesome. Career value hurts him, but that's still a great peak. 124 OPS+, 1477 RC, 4 consecutive seasons 100+ RC (including 2 above 160), 6.87 RC/27, C fielder.
9. Cool Papa Bell: His thread convinced me that's he's not a whole lot better than Richie Ashburn, and this is about where Ashburn would rate for me. His final seasons aren't enough to change his reletively weak peak.
10. Jose Mendez: His Win Share totals remind me of Juan Marichal, although not as good.
11. Dick Lundy: Lundy is basically Mendez, just a little worse. Thusly, he rates here.
12. Jake Beckley: A good hitter, not historically great, but good. A long career, highly consistent, with above-average hitting and good fielding. 125 OPS+, 1462 RC, 5 seasons below 80 RC out of 15 (1890-1904), 5.86 RC/27, B+ fielder.
13. Leroy Matlock: His peak, judging by Win Shares, wasn't as great as Griffith's, but he has more career value, and Griffith's career value isn't really all that high. I am a peak guy, but a good career can trump a short, but effective, one.
14. Clark Griffith: Very good peak, with an absolutely great season thrown in. A ton of innings with high effectiveness, but he has a short career, basically finished after 33. He basically has 10 seasons, with a little bit thrown in - 11 if you count 1891. 121 ERA+, 5 seasons with ERA+ above 120 and 300+ innings, with 5 other above average, 200+ IP seasons connected, 3385.2 IP.
15. Biz Mackey: Great fielder, but his Win Shares say poor hitter after his first few seasons.

Next few: Edd Roush, Hack Wilson, Chuck Klein, Ralph Kiner, all of whom were pushed off by Lundy and Matlock (who were placed after the major leaguers and the first few Negro Leaguers were placed), as well as each other (Wilson displaced Kiner, who displaced Klein).

Early Wynn doesn't appear on my ballot, and isn't better than 30th, although I'm not exactly sure where he rates. In addition to those named so far, I have to rate everyone who finished above 30th on the last ballot above him, although I'm not a fan of Tommy Leach. He's close to Grimes, but not even at his level.
   22. Howie Menckel Posted: January 31, 2006 at 03:20 AM (#1844782)
1969 ballot, our 72nd

I had 1968 electees Rixey No. 1 and Ashburn off my ballot.
Wynn was by far the most intriguing new candidate this year. A little reshuffling as usual after some good discussion this week.

I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. STAN MUSIAL - 3 MVPs, 4 runnerups, 14 times in the top 10. 7 batting titles, 2 2nds, 5 3rds, 2 4ths, a 15th - that's 17 times in the top 5 (woulda been 18, no doubt, in 1945). From 1942 to 1958, a serious BA contender every year he played. Then there's adjusted OPS+, where he was 1st 6 times, 2nd 4 times... well, I think you get the idea.
2. YOGI BERRA - Not only a 125 career OPS+ in more than 8300 PA (playing 87 pct of games in the field at C), but at least 110 OPS+ every year from 1948 to 1961. Only hit .274 in postseason, but it was .299 after going 4 for 35 in his first two WS.

3. JAKE BECKLEY - It'll be time soon, but I've seen that a lot of our voters will never ever vote for him.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "quite good" is almost unique. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey.
4. DICK REDDING - I'd like to add he and Bell to round out my own personal Negro League contingent, pending further analysis. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that. I agree that this is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment.
5. COOL PAPA BELL - I enjoy the color-blindness of our evaluations, and this is the ultimate case. Continues a steady climb on my ballot, and this is while conceding that park and steals led him to be a bit overrated. But discounting the myth a bit doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
6. CLARK GRIFFITH - Zooms back up after a brief detour toward the bottom of my ballot. Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
7. EARLY WYNN - I like these long-career good SPs; they suffer in ERA+ because they had long peaks and long struggles. Outstanding in 55 mostly relief IP at age 43; seems like he coulda played another year, ironically.
8. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than HOMer Medwick; I like mashers like this, and there's a little war credit. Is getting underrated by the electorate, but gets slight move up from me.
9. JOE GORDON - Moves up 5 slots this week. Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison.
10. GEORGE SISLER - Hanging in there. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
11. CUPID CHILDS - A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.
12. GAVVY CRAVATH - Continues to have a presence on the Howie ballot, after 20+ years of resistance. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. I think Gadfly's estimates on the Cravath thread are way too kind to him, BUT I hope people don't reject his whole case on that grounds. Doesn't need a lot of minor-league credit to beat Medwick. Comparison to Kiner is even more fascinating.
13. BOBBY DOERR - Like Gordon, deserving of our strong consideration. I haven't locked in their final resting place on my ballot, only that they belong on it somewhere.
14. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot. Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
15. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed on my radar 3 years ago and onto my ballot 2 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, and other borderline HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. One 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.

PETE BROWNING - Tough one for Pete, who was No. 10 for me last year. He's slipped just behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. Almost would be No. 2 on my ballot if he could field. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14 last year. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Has not been on my ballot in many years. Better pick than Mackey.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Slips from 15 last year. I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15. Don't think he's a HOMer, but tough to find 15 better.
MICKEY WELCH - Will return to the ballot someday. The Ws are great, but hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.

BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in a few years without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth in his era? Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.
   23. Howie Menckel Posted: January 31, 2006 at 03:22 AM (#1844784)
(Browning comment should just say he'd be on the bottom of my ballot if he could field.)
   24. DavidFoss Posted: January 31, 2006 at 04:54 AM (#1844858)
Scoring levels dropped yet again to the lowest level in AL history and the lowest level in the NL since 1908. Plans to increase offense will be implemented for next season.

The Tigers led for most of the season and won the pennant going away. The offense had been quitely one of the AL's best for a few years already, but the pitching came together and gelled behind 31-game winner Denny McLain.

The Cardinals were a lights-out 46-15 in June/July to built a giant lead and coasted to the pennant with ease. The offense regressed a bit from the previous season, but Bob Gibson was healthy and posted an eye-popping 1.12 ERA (258 ERA+).

The Cardinals were looking like they grab another game seven victory behind ace Bob Gibson, but Lolich brought his A-game and the Tigers mounted a two-out rally in the top of the seventh highlighted by a two run triple by Jim Northrup.

A couple of real no-brainers at the top of the ballot this week with the backlog jockeying for position behind them.

1969 Ballot

1. Stan Musial (ne) Underrated inner-circle guy (if that was possible). 604 WS. Three MVP's (could have been more if the writers had not gotten sick of voting for him. Two SABR triple crowns. Seven OPS titles, seven batting titles, six OBP titles, six SLG titles. 5th all-time in black ink. Top notch guy.
2. Yogi Berra (ne) -- One of the best hitting catchers to date. Also one of the more durable -- so he ended up with more PA's as of 1963 than any other player whose primary position was catcher. That's a lot of hitting value. Top 20th century catcher in Grey Ink underscores that point. Three-time MVP. The common link in the great Yankee post-war dynasty from 1947-64 (he managed in 1964).
3. Clark Griffith (1) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
4. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.
5. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
6. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
7. Dick Redding (5) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
8. Ralph Kiner (6) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good. Starting him just above Cravath.
9. Gavvy Cravath (7) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
10. Biz Mackey (8) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft spot for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
11. Joe Gordon (9) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
12. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
13. George Sisler (11) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
14. Roger Bresnahan (12) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
15. Joe Sewell (13) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.

16-20. BJohnson, BElliott, Doerr, Rosen, Trouppe,
21-25. Chance, Lombardi, Beckley, WBrown, Browning,
26-30. Wynn, Welch, DMoore, Leach, Waddell,
31-35. Roush, Newcombe, BWalters, CPBell, Rizzuto,
   25. Kelly in SD Posted: January 31, 2006 at 08:43 AM (#1845002)
This is a reposting of post 93 on the Piazza signs with Padres Thread. I thought it made some good points about timelining and great players dominating over differing pools of talent.

I [Sam] think this happens because people draw the wrong conclusions about the significance of the timeline. It's not that the truly great players of the 1920s and 1930s weren't all-time greats. It's that their overwhelming dominance does not provide as much evidence of their greatness as appears at first glance.

Let's assume that we would give the greatest player in the history of baseball a 100. I don't know if he's Bonds or Thomas or Ruth or Hornsby or Wagner -- whomever he is, he's a 100. If he happened to come along in an era where the talent pool is shallow, he's going to be overwhelmingly dominant; there are going to be relatively few players even close to him. A 95 here, an 87 there. Now, just because the talent pool was shallow doesn't mean he wasn't the greatest player; it just means his dominance is misleading as evidence that he WAS the greatest.

Why? Because if the same player happens to come along later on, when there are more great players crowding the scene (more international players, no color line, etc.), he's still the same 100 he was, but now there are a bunch of 95s and 92s and he's not going to be nearly as dominant.

Thus, Josh Gibson might or might not be the best catcher of all time. The fact that he towered over a relatively shallower talent pool -- even shallower than the one Babe Ruth laughed at -- clouds the issue immeasurably. To me, the timeline doesn't mean the old guys couldn't have been the best; it just means their dominance over their competition must be taken with a grain of salt.
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: January 31, 2006 at 12:20 PM (#1845047)
This is a reasonable post. It is about ability. The 100 is a measure of ability. A 100 is a 100 in ability whether he is surrounded by a bunch of 95s or not.

In measuring value, however, a 100 is more valuable when the competition is a bunch of 88s and less valuable when it is a bunch of 95s.

This is why this is not easy.
   27. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: January 31, 2006 at 02:55 PM (#1845124)
Here is a question that probably shouldn't be posted on thsi thread but here goes...

Is our charge to rank the best players as we woudl if we were ranking a top 100 of all time?


Is our charge to be fair to all eras and so treat each era equally (I take equally to mean %, not raw totals)?

Chances are it is somewhere in between. Yes we want to be fair to all eras BUT we are charged with ranking the players as we would rank them in a top 100 no? In some ways I feel that my rankings for the HOM aren't always necessarily how my ranking would look for a top 100 because I would probably timeline a bit more in a top 100.
   28. Chris Cobb Posted: January 31, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#1845130)
The Prime Directive, from the Constitution:

Our goal is to identify the best players of each era and elect them to the Hall of Merit.
   29. sunnyday2 Posted: January 31, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#1845133)
>BUT we are charged with ranking the players as we would rank them in a top 100 no?

IOW, no.
   30. andrew siegel Posted: January 31, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#1845190)
(1) Musial (new)--At one point in time, Musial and Berra were the only two guys in major league history to finish in the top 2 in MVP voting 4 consecutive years. Then along came Barry.
(2) Berra (new)--See above.
(3) Dobie Moore (1st)--One of the top 50 7-year primes in baseball history. George Sisler's offensive value; defense somewhere between Earnie Banks and Cal Ripken.
(4) Oms (4th)--Subjective reports have him playing Crawford to Charleston's Cobb. We initially ignored him because we didn't have enough statistical info to evaluate that claim. Now that we have the stats, they 100% confirm the subjective record. A clear HoMer.
(5) Van Haltren (5th)--There are lots of roughly similar players in history but he has an edge on each of them (e.g., career length on Duffy, OWP on Ryan and Ashburn, 15-20 OPS+ points on Bell, durability on Roush, very slight offensive and defensive edges on Beckley). Those comparisons make the case for GVH: he is a small notch above a borderline HoMer.
(6) Roush (7th)--Slides up the list in weak years. He missed lots of games and played in weak league, but those OPS+ numbers are outstanding and his WS are excellent (and even better than they look b/c/ achieved in fewer games).
(7) Beckley (10th)--Information on the 1890s defensive spectrum was very helpful and moves him up a few slots. Unique.
(8) Duffy (6th)--Excellent defense and baserunning, key player in spectacular teams. His case comes down to his offense. 1891 and 1894 are big offensive seasons by any measure (though 1891 needs league discount). The debate is 1890, 1892, and 1893--in each of those years, WS has him one of the top 3 offensive players in his league even though he is outside the top 10 in OPS+. Some of that is durability, but that rest is harder to explain. Right now, I'm splitting the difference, but I need to study those seasons and make a decision one way or the other.
(9) Early Wynn (new)--Very hard to place. Clearly behind Rixey and Ruffing (both of whom would be #3 on this ballot); clearly ahead of Grimes (#20). Prospectus has Wynn as slightly more effective than Grimes (4.31 vs. 4.37 DERA) in 12% more era-adjusted innings with similar peaks, then makes a major era adjustments when shifting from PRAA to PRAR. I'm still struggling with the last of those adjustments; if I buy it hook, line, and sinker, then Wynn will vault ahead of all of this year's also-rans except maybe Moore.
(10) Trouppe (8th)--Totally overlooked by history; best catcher on the board.
(11) Childs (9th)--Best of a tightly packed set of 2B.
(12) Gordon (10th)--A better player than Doerr at his peak, lost enough time and ability to the war (and enough time waiting in the minors), that there careers are essentially a wash.
(13) Mendez (11th)-- Bob Lemon is our best comp thus far, though Mendez's inning were worth a bit less.
(14) Sisler (12th)--Borderline.
(15) Elliot (14th)--Wins coinflip with Doerr.

Next 15: Doerr, Sewell (15th), Schang, Bell, Grimes, Johnson, Chance, Bridges, Ryan, W. Brown, C. Jones, Kiner, Bresnahan, Doyle, Keller.

I need to make a record five explanations:

Doerr (16th)-- I like him a lot; will eventually make my HoM; ballot is just crowded.

Bell (19th)--Will also probably make my HoM. Needs another look. If his OPS+ makes it to 110 or 111, I think he is a clear HoMer.

W. Brown (25th)-- His failure to take a walk EVER is holding him back. I see him as a lot like Andre Dawson--great power, longish career, good defense at least early in his career, but not nearly as valuable as he appears superficially b/c/ lack of plate discipline translates into lots of outs.

Griffith (about 32nd)-- Really good pitcher, didn't pitch enough innings compared to contemporaries.

Mackey (about 40th)-- Needs a reevaluation, but based on current numbers didn't hit enough.
   31. Dizzypaco Posted: January 31, 2006 at 04:00 PM (#1845194)
Our goal is to identify the best players of each era and elect them to the Hall of Merit.

Then why are people bothering to compare people across eras? There's no reason to. If we know that we want the best 20 (or whatever number) of players from each decade, then the only relevant comparisons are within the same era.
   32. OCF Posted: January 31, 2006 at 04:26 PM (#1845237)
Because we're not arguing Musial versus Ed Delehanty, or Spahn versus Alexander - we're arguing Wynn versus Welch, or Bob Johnson versus Hugh Duffy.

Let's put it this way: let's say that "clearly top-notch" players come along at the rate of about 10 per decade, on average. Delehanty, Alexander, Spahn - they're the best of their times, and we'll elect them as soon as we can. That's about 130 players (or maybe 150, or maybe 100 - something like that). Now that we've done that, what other players are worthy if we're going to enshrine 220 or so? None of these players are clearly the best of their times, and all of their candidacies have certain flaws - different flaws for different people. These are the marginal candidates, the inhabitants of the backlog. There's no good reason why they should necessarily be evenly distributed; one era might have an extra abundance of very good players, with fewer over the line into Hall-worthiness; another era might be the opposite.
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: January 31, 2006 at 04:43 PM (#1845271)
Yes, in constructing a ballot one necessarily has to decide among Charley Jones, George Sisler, Willard Brown and Ralph Kiner.
   34. Dizzypaco Posted: January 31, 2006 at 06:35 PM (#1845477)
Yes, in constructing a ballot one necessarily has to decide among Charley Jones, George Sisler, Willard Brown and Ralph Kiner.

That's true, but in comparing them, you should not be asking who was the better player. You shouldn't be comparing their win shares, WARP, career value, or anything else. Instead, the question should be, where does George Sisler rank among his contemporaries? Where does Kiner? Where does Jones? If you think Sisler ranks 16th among players playing in the 1920's, and Kiner 19th among players playing in the late 40's/early 50's, then Sisler should be placed above Kiner. That is, if your goal is to identify the best players of each era and put them in, rather than to identify the best players overall.
   35. sunnyday2 Posted: January 31, 2006 at 07:08 PM (#1845538)
Yes, that is a useful distinction. It's not a question of which was better but which was more valuable, and value is relative to one's competitors in one's own time and place.

But still you've got to decide whether George Sisler had more marginal or incremental value against his peers or whether Ralph Kiner had more marginal or incremental value against his peers.

It doesn't necessarily follow that 16 in one era is necessarily better than 19 in another because value and/or marginal or incremental value is distributed differently in each era, not because of the character of the era but due to random fluctuations and 100 other variables like injuries and so on.

OTOH if somebody says that #32 of one era is better than #16 in another, then I'd be asking whether we're measuring value or whether that is "fair to all eras."
   36. DanG Posted: January 31, 2006 at 07:13 PM (#1845551)
Instead, the question should be, where does George Sisler rank among his contemporaries? Where does Kiner? Where does Jones? If you think Sisler ranks 16th among players playing in the 1920's, and Kiner 19th among players playing in the late 40's/early 50's, then Sisler should be placed above Kiner. That is, if your goal is to identify the best players of each era and put them in, rather than to identify the best players overall.

As someone said, you can't assume that the distribution of quality is identical in every era. So, the 19th player of one era may be deemd better than the 16th players of another era.

Another element is that The Rules have been left deliberately vague. Nowhere does it say how many players from an era should be elected. And nowhere does it define what is an "era". Voter discretion is advised.

Over the years of this project, a general consensus has developed on these matters, which I will forego trying to explain here. What I do want to mention is the idea that there should be a gradual increase in the number of HoMers as we go forward in time. I think this is the prevailing approach used by the electorate (right?) and it is entirely consistent with the Prime Directive. Here, I am assuming that "fair" representation is not the same as "equal". IOW, I think it is entirely appropriate to have more 1960's players than, say, 1890's. Not a lot more, but a few more is OK. The expansion of the population, the teams, the popularity, the number of players...everything points to this as a reasonable approach, AFAICS.
   37. OCF Posted: January 31, 2006 at 08:23 PM (#1845670)
It's my fault for replying to Dizzypaco here, but can we move this particular discussion to another thread? There have been 16 ballots so far.
   38. TomH Posted: January 31, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#1845712)
Oh, the exictement as I realize MY ballot might be THE ONE that puts a bordelrine guy over the top....NOT

1969 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

Yes, I do feel the late 1950s NL is a much stronger league than its predecessors, and stats should be adjusted accordingly. If we honor fewer players from the 1960 era than we do from the 1930 era (including the deserving NegLgrs of that day), our perspective will be greatly askew.
OTOH, this project IS about ‘respect of all eras’, and some of us who pound the pulpit for new guys ought to ensure we aren’t overdoing it. I nudged a few old-timers up a bit on my top 30 list this week (Pete Borwning fans may commence rejoicing minimally).

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Stan Musial {new}
On my all-time team, Stan the Man is in the starting lineup. Playing first base. Lou feels like the luckiest man alive, just being on the bench : )
2-Yogi Berra {new}
Arguably, along with Piazza and Bench, the best MLB catcher ever.
3-Clark Griffith (1) [4]
Brought many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog.
4-Joe Sewell (3) [15]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
5-George Van Haltren (4) [5]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
6-Cool Papa Bell (5) [6]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer. Our MLEs may understate Bell’s real value.
7-Early Wynn {new}
Pitched a lot, pitched forever, had some great years, hit OK too. Takes Rixey’s spot, which seems right.
8-Bucky Walters (7) [21]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
9-John McGraw (9) [37]
The prime of Hughie Jennings. Outstanding RCAP. HoM is short of 3Bmen and 1890s infielders. Brilliant tactician.
10-Joe Gordon (8) [19]
Nudges out Doerr; I might feel differently if Doerr had helped his team over the top in at least one of the many close pennant races that they lost.
11-Biz Mackey (10) [3]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
12-Frank Chance (12) [40]
Y’all know how I feel.
13-Jake Beckley (13) [9]
Fine career.
14-Willard Brown (11) [10]
Close comp to Averill, who I assess as one of our weakest HoMers to date. Luke Easter MIGHT be Willard Brown, but I’m less uncertain of Brown’s career.
15-Ralph Kiner (14) [14]
Great prime.

I bumped Oms up and Brown down a few places each this week. I had been giving Brown credit and Oms none for their reps, but as Oms was skilled in th elittle-loved patience and Brown in much-loved power, I can see why the reps might be skewed, and have lessened my bonus credit in this regard..

16 B Johnson – very good long prime
17 G Sisler – great prime, shorter than Kiner’s
18-20 B Monroe, C Childs, A Oms
21-23 T Leach, R Bresnahan, P Rizzuto
24-26 B Doerr, P Traynor, D Moore
27-29 P Browning, J Mendez, M Welch

Others near the ballot:
Wally Schang …bonus credit for catching lots of thieves in W.S. play
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher…for a while.
Gavy Cravath … might belong also, but it’s real hard to tell
   39. KJOK Posted: January 31, 2006 at 11:56 PM (#1845963)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. STAN MUSIAL, LF/RF/1B. 76 POW, 191 WARP1, 992 RCAP & .752 OWP in 12,712 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. This is what “inner-circle” player looks like.

2. YOGI BERRA, C. 39 POW, 110 WARP1, 440 RCAP & .626 OWP in 8,364 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Best Catcher from 1940’s-1960’s time period.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor. Beckley’s gone from off my ballot to #1 to now #6.

7. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s, and in the top 10 of his 30 year era.

8. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

9. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

10. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

11. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

12. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Best of the outfield glut.

13. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

14. EARLY WYNN, P.20 POW, 105 RSAA, 184 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 106 ERA+ in 4,566 innings. May have him too high, as not sure he’s much better than Jack Quinn, but on the other hand he’s close to Rixey.

15. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.


They all made the ballot.


GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception perhaps a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him just ahead of Childs & Gordon at this time.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson, or Averill, who can’t make my ballot.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

ALEJANDRO OMS, CF/RF. Estimated 126 OPS+ over 5,152 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp is possibly Eric Davis. That won’t cut it in this crowd.
   40. dan b Posted: February 01, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#1846068)
1.Musial Musial may be a unanimous pick in this vote, but I doubt he would win so easily in a poll to name the most famous alumnus of Ringgold High School and it’s predecessors. Stan’s hometown of Donora, PA and Joe Montana’s hometown of Monongahela, PA are 5 miles apart and are now part of the same school district.
2.Berra Has anyone out there been to the museum in Montclair, NJ?
3.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. The following are at or above the median (Add Musial to all lists, Berra all except 3 year peak):
3 year peak (non-consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Keller
5 year peak (consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Duffy, Berger, Keller
8 year peak (non-consecutive) – Duffy, Keller
10 year peak (consecutive) – Duffy, Burns
WS/162 – Keller, Chance, Berger, Rosen, Duffy, McGraw
Career – None
4.Griffith PHoM 1913. <u>If we are going to be fair to all eras</u>, then the 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in. 1890’s still underrepresented.
5.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
6.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
7.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
8.Keller PHoM 1967. The more I look, the more I like. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Only Musial has a better WS/162 among 20th century players on this ballot. See Duffy comment above.
9.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
10.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
11.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
12.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
13.Wynn <u>To be fair to all eras</u>, we need to enshrine Gus as the 3rd best pitcher of the 50’s after Roberts and Spahn.
14.Bell PHoM 1968.
15.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. <u>No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.</u>
16.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush forgotten; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! Say it ain’t so.
17.Cooper Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. PHoM 1942.
18.Brown, Willard Strong mle’s.
19.C. Mays
   41. sunnyday2 Posted: February 01, 2006 at 02:33 AM (#1846089)
I had constructed my entire ballot and then it disappeared. Here is what I have time for the second time through.

1. Musial
2. Berra
3. Moore
4. Sisler
5. Browning
6. Kiner
7. Waddell
8. Mendez
9. W. Brown
10. Joss
11. Redding
12. Bond
13. Williamson
14. Doyle
15. Gordon

47. Mackey
29. Griffith
85. Van Haltren
55. Bell
65. Beckley

31. Wynn--the only suspense is where he fits into the backlog--Early or Late. #7 pitcher on my ballot.
   42. Rick A. Posted: February 01, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#1846135)
Some movement on my ballot this week, not that it matters this week. Leach, F. Jones, Trouppe and Sewell move up, but none make my ballot.

Stan Musial
Yogi Berra

1969 Ballot
1.Stan Musial – Elected PHOM in 1969
2.Yogi Berra – Elected PHOM in 1969
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
6.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
7.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
8.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
9.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
10.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
11.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
12.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
13.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
14.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
15.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot

New Candidates
Early Wynn Peak not as high as Deans. Will join Ruffing, Faber, and Rixey in the HOM-not PHOM team.
Gil Hodges Best 1B of the 50's but not enough peak value.
Diomedes Olivo Love his name. Still trying to get some more info on him

Required Disclosures
Beckley and Griffith Not close to my ballot
Van Haltren Moves up some, but I like F. Jones better
Doerr Not as good as Gordon or Childs or Monroe
Sisler and Bell Both are close to my ballot

Off the ballot
16-20 Walters,Bresnahan,Dean,Monroe,Leach
21-25 Bell,Waddell,Mays,Matlock,Sisler
26-30 Oms,Roush,Johnson, McGraw,Cravath
31-35 H.Smith,Gordon,Elliott,Doyle,Wynn
36-40 Easter,Trouppe,W.Cooper,Winters,Rosen
41-45 Stephens,Bond,Schang,Rizzuto,Poles
46-50 A.Cooper,Tiernan,F.Jones,VanHaltren,Keller
   43. Al Peterson Posted: February 01, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#1846336)
1969 ballot. Quite the gap between slots 2 and 3. Early Wynn doesn’t blow me away but does grab a ballot spot.

1. Stan Musial(-).
Stan the Man. Still in the major league record book as top 10 career totals in G, AB, R, H, TB, 2B, RBI, and XBH. Other than that a total bum.

2. Yogi Berra(-). Good year for St. Louis. Mr. Cardinal and a native son are going in the HOM.

3. Clark Griffith(1). Best left over from the 60’6” transitional period of pitching. Was a winner, good auxiliary stats to go with it.

4. Dick Redding (2). CANNONBALL!!! Pitched in multiple leagues, each time having success. He’s the NeL pitcher I think we’re missing.

5. Bobby Doerr (3). Yes, above Gordon. But the gap is less than the difference in ballot positions seems to indicate. Does well in the non-Win Share metrics.

6. Jimmy Ryan (4). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

7. Edd Roush (5). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

8. Bob Johnson (6). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

9. Rube Waddell (7). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

10. Biz Mackey (8). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

11. Frank Chance (9). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. Had some speed for his day as well.

12. Early Wynn (-). Workhorse for an awfully long time. The question of whether those vast amounts of innings were worth it can be open to debate. This is about where Rixey was placed so I’m good with that.

13. Hugh Duffy (10). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

14. Cool Papa Bell (11). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

15. Tommy Leach (12). Represents a shorted position, quality player at two positions. Versatility is a bonus; clubs can build teams different ways when players can move around.

16-20: Moore, Berger, Oms, Mullane, Browning
21-25: Mendez, Kiner, Childs, Sewell, Poles
26-30: Van Haltren, Easter, Sisler, Bridges, Byrd
31-35: F Jones, Elliot, Lundy, Keller, Cicotte
36-40: Gordon, Veach, Willard Brown, Trout, Stephens
41-45: McGraw, Ben Taylor, Roy Thomas, Joss, Cuyler
46-50: D. Leonard, Mays, Trouppe, Hack Wilson, Willis

Top Returnees: Sisler (#28), Van Haltren (#26), Willard Brown (#38), Beckley (around #60), they all could be ballot worthy. Sisler and Beckley have 1Bmen I rank ahead of them. Van Haltren and Brown are somewhere in the large mass of outfielders which I try to sort through to come up with a ballot.

New guys: Hodges doesn’t do well – Farther down in the very good player section. If I had to pick a companion player by position I’d say Konetchy. Not a new guy but I did re-examine Alejandro Oms. Shows up just outside the ballot.
   44. Mike Webber Posted: February 01, 2006 at 10:04 PM (#1846987)
My HOM spreadsheet went POOF last week, which isn’t all bad. Definitely will be doing a major revamp over next two weeks. Due to that not much change in my ballot this week.

1) STAN MUSIAL – I remember making my folks take me to his restraint when I was about 12, but Stan wasn’t there that night.
2) YOGI BERRA – The best tiramisu in the world is at place called Gia and Tony’s, in St. Louis on the Hill were Yogi and Joe Garagiola grew up. Gia and Tony’s is diagonal from Berra Park.

3) EDD ROUSH – Compared to Ashburn, more career value, better peak value. Those two are very close to me.
4) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak, excellent defensive player. 5)COOL PAPA BELL – Another St. Louisian on my ballot.
6)RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot.
7)BOBBY DOERR – lacks outstanding peak, but keeps sliding up my ballot.
8)CARL MAYS – I think his strong peak moves him ahead of Ruffing and Rixey, but just barely.
9)PIE TRAYNOR – I’d rank the Pirate third basemen this way, Leach, Traynor, Bonilla, Elliott, Hebner, Madlock, Hoak.
10)JOE GORDON 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
11) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but I think the argument about his lack of top 10 win share seasons is fairly compelling. I bumped him further down my ballot to in relation to my penalty for 19th century pitching win shares. I realized I was not (may still not be) docking his impressive career totals.
12) ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger and Schang are both ahead of Mackey IMO. St. Louis connection, Cardinals manager 1909 –1912.
13)EARLY WYNN – I debated about waiting a week, since my spreadsheet got eaten. But I’m comfortable placing him ahead of Griffith and Wills, so I will slot him in here.
14)JOE SEWELL – Another mechanized ballot favorite, and has as good an argument for induction as most others on this list.
15)LARRY DOYLE – If his fielding wasn’t so in question, I think he’d be in.

16-20 Berger, Willis, Dean, Elliot, Lazzeri.
21-30 Rizzuto, Rosen, H Wilson, Duffy, Schang, Stephens, Moore, Lombardi, Vernon and Sisler

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang and Lombardi, Griffith – about 50.
Willard Brown – ever read one of those books about the NYC basketball playground legends – Goat, Lloyd Daniels, ect? That is what Brown reminds me of. Of course Earl Monroe was a NYC playground legend too.
ake Beckley – first basemen definitely better than Beckley include George Sisler and Mickey Vernon. First basemen probably better than Beckley include Frank Chance and Gil Hodges. First basemen about the same as Beckley include Camilli, Fournier, Bottomley, and Konetchy.

Newbies – Hodges, I’m comfortable in putting him behind Sisler, and Sisler is not quite on my ballot this week.

Vic Wertz – here is a guy that the A’s of the early 1990’s would love. Was he really that poor in the field? What if Detroit had said, “The with Don Kolloway and his 80 career OPS+, were gonna stick this guy in at first and leave him alone.” Was traded several times, and never for much.
   45. Cblau Posted: February 02, 2006 at 03:24 AM (#1847275)
1) STAN MUSIAL – I remember making my folks take me to his restraint when I was about 12, but Stan wasn’t there that night.

Restraint? Did he own an S&M club? Heckuva place to take a 12-year-old.
   46. Mike Webber Posted: February 02, 2006 at 03:39 AM (#1847284)
1) STAN MUSIAL – I remember making my folks take me to his restraint when I was about 12, but Stan wasn’t there that night.

Restraint? Did he own an S&M club? Heckuva place to take a 12-year-old.

Yeah, not only my spread sheet went Poof, but also my ability to edit.

   47. Daryn Posted: February 02, 2006 at 02:25 PM (#1847617)
1. Musial -- his most similar player scores a 763. That’s Rickey good.

2. Berra – best ML catcher to date.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Cool Papa Bell – It seems likely he would have exceeded 3000 hits with tremendous speed and great defense in a key position.

5. Early Wynn – starting him low, he’s a good comp for Welch and may be better. I’m sure most voters here will have him well above Welch. Definitely, IMO, better than Grimes.

6. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes at 6 and Griffith at 14, which results in 7 pitchers on my ballot. Grimes is among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares.

7. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

8. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (16) or Schang (28).

10. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

11. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

12. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

13. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

14. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with Mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin. That’s 24 pitchers. It is tough to separate the wheat from the chaff among the pitchers.

15. Addie Joss – I used to have him on the ballot, but then dropped him, perhaps due to peer pressure. But in preparing for Koufax, I asked myself what kind of short pitching career would be ballot worthy (I’m not sure Koufax is); my answer was Joss’. It goes without saying but I give no credit for anything after April 14, 1911. I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. So, to make a long story short, he’s back on the ballot.

Willard Brown is high 20s/low 30s for me. I once had him paired with Medwick, who would be around 11 on this ballot, but lost confidence in that comparison. I think the lower profile NeLers suffer from a little more cynicism directed at their translations, and I may be guilty of that; but I am simply not convinced my placement of him is wrong.
   48. Rob_Wood Posted: February 02, 2006 at 03:21 PM (#1847681)
1969 ballot:

1. Stan Musial - my father's favorite player
2. Yogi Berra - one of the best five catchers ever
3. Jake Beckley - luv the career
4. George Van Haltren - star cf of the 1890s
5. Bobby Doerr - virtual tie with Gordon
6. Joe Gordon - see above
7. Bob Johnson - overlooked outfielder of the 1930s-1940s
8. Ralph Kiner - hard to peg
9. Willard Brown - comparison to medwick seems about right
10. Tommy Bridges - great curveball (with wwii and pcl credit)
11. Early Wynn - as a career voter, I'm not overly impressed
12. Bob Elliott - unknown third baseman of the 1940s
13. Cupid Childs - great second baseman of the 1890s
14. George Sisler - another who is hard to slot
15. Clark Griffith - long career for pitcher of the 1890s-1900s

Not voting for group top ten Biz Mackey (after reconsideration he is around 75 for me) and Cool Papa Bell (around 50 for me).
   49. TomH Posted: February 02, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#1847830)
even tho I dissed him on my ballot, a very happy 83rd birthday wish today to Red Sch..(2B)..inst.
   50. KJOK Posted: February 02, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#1848110)
I remember making my folks take me to his restraint when I was about 12, but Stan wasn’t there that night.

Stan N Biggie's.

Musial once said of his business association, "the quickest way to get a million bucks is to start with two million and open a restaurant"
   51. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 02, 2006 at 09:35 PM (#1848162)

My Dinner with with Yogi

1. Stan Musial: Best player in the NL from 1942-1963. Amazing peak, amazing career, only 500 bombs eluding him and that’s by dint of the draft and the balata ball. Inner circle all the way.
“Other than himself he was the best player in the league.”

2. Yogi Berra: Berra ranks behind only Josh Gibson among catchers in my system. Inner circle as well.
“I don’t mind being second, except when I’m first.”

3. Jose Mendez: Peaktasticness supported by Gary A’s wonderful research.
“He’s so good nobody votes for him anymore.”

4. Leroy Matlock: Maybe I’m overrating him, or maybe I’m the only one who knows his inner light? I don’t know, and I’m not sure yet how to figure out how to know.
"It's hard to forget a guy you never met."

5. Bucky Walters: Yes, the march of the mid-length, high peak pitchers is one man shorter with Wes on the wall now, but this movement is very much alive.
“I like pitchers, the game’s not much fun without them.”

6. Quincy Trouppe: I’m sorry to say this but unless the Hall of Fame committee knows something we don’t, they totally missed the boat on QT. Best available catcher.
“They told me to walk more, so I stopped running out grounders.”

7. Charley Jones: Best unenshrined outfielder.
“How do you get to know a guy you don’t know?”

8. Roger Bresnahan: Second best catcher out there. Good peak, wish he’d played more in the latter half of his career.
“If he’d a played more, he’d have gotten into more games.”

9. Hugh Duffy: Great flycatcher, splendid batter with power and average and speed and enough walks to make me happy. The Larry Doby of his era? In terms of value, yes.
“The problem with being like Larry Doby is that no one was like Larry Doby.”

10. Cupid Childs: High-OBP, high-octane second basemen, best at his position for almost a decade. He’s overdue.
“I thought his name was Eros all these years.”

11. Dobie Moore: Absolutely great SS, probably has ten, maybe more years of service including the Wreckers. This guy’s for real.
“It’s a shame he didn’t last longer because now nobody knows how long he lasted.”

12. Willard Brown: If he woulda just walked a little bit more---ten more times a year even!---he’d be in like flint already.
“I’ve been in Flint; it’s a lot like Toledo, only in Michigan.”

13. Biz Mackey: Golden glove, pewter bat. It’s OK, the whole package is what we reward. “Why would I want a Gold Glove? They’re heavy.”

14. Early Wynn: He’s pretty much Ruffing or Grimes with more peak innings, but probably not higher quality ones.
“If he’d been any meaner, kids wouldn’t be allowed into the game.”

15. Wilbur Cooper: Makes it back on board my ballot for the first time since, like, the Hoover administration. Another mid-length, high output pitcher who made a pretty good transition to the lively ball all told.
“The trouble with lefthanded pitchers is that their not right handed.”

16. Burleigh Grimes: I’ve reconned him to this spot. I’m very confused by Grimes. He had a lot of bad inning-eating kind of years, as well as a lot of good staff-ace kind of years. He could move up or down in coming elections.
17. George Sisler: Right near my personal in/out line.
18. Pete Browning
19. Ed Williamson
20. GVH: I still love ya, Georgie baby! You’re a HOMer and some day you’ll be thusly acknowledged.
21. Larry Doyle: First time near my ballot in a while. Hard-hitting keystone cop with enough good glovin’ to stay in the league for a dozen or more years, but not enough to give him a big value boost or to keep him around when his hitting slud a little.
22. George J. Burns: He's back!
23. Gavy Cravath: He's also back!

Sherm Lollar—Really excellent receiver, not quite enough career to be a strong candidate. He ranks a hair ahead of Lombardi and Schalk, and just behind Schang and well behind Bennett. He’s just off the edge of electability, but with wiggle room for personal error on such things, he would not be a terrible selection for the HOM depending on your tastes.

Gil Hodges—I’ve got him a little ahead of Konetchy and Bottomley and Beckley. That’s not a slam: the guys ten spots or more above him are all amazing and he’s in a close cluster around the ones just above him (Easter, Vernon, Taylor) with wiggle room for error, but not enough to make him a serious candidate IMO.

Vic Wertz—Best known for hitting into an out. Probably the only player solely remembered for a famously well struck batted ball that resulted in an out. He’s around John Morrill and Frank McCormick, not a serious candidate.

Diomedes Olivo—??? I’ve got no sense of Olivo’s candidacy, and the information on him seems to be scant.

Clark Griffith—I guess I just don’t have the same love for him as others. I’ve got him around Schoolboy Rowe, Hippo Vaughn, and Bob Shawkey among others.

Bobby Doerr—I’m not sold on the idea that he’s better than Doyle, so he’s in backlog for me.

Jake Beckley—See Hodges comment above.
   52. TomH Posted: February 03, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#1848367)
<u>HOWLING with laughter! Even my wife will enjoy reading this baseball article. Way too much fun :)</u>
   53. SWW Posted: February 03, 2006 at 03:12 PM (#1848853)
A little bit of rejiggering towards the bottom of the ballot. Fortunately, the top of the ballot is a flippin’ piece of cake.

<u>1969 Ballot</u>
1)Stanley Frank Musial – “The Man”
My word. 600 Win Shares? 14 Top 10 NL Win Shares? I suppose you could do some kind of a reverse war credit thing, and he wouldn’t seem quite so superhuman. But that’s a heck of a career. Baseball’s perfect knight, indeed. 5th on SABR Top 100. 9th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 9th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 10th on Sporting News Top 100. 10th on Bill James Top 100. 5th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2)Lawrence Peter Berra – “Yogi”
I think I’ll take the fork in the road. Staggeringly far ahead of the other eligible backstops, and both Win Shares and WARP place him well in front of the pack. Just one more example of how you can like a Yankee and still hate the Yankees. 25th on SABR Top 100. 28th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 34th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 40th on Sporting News Top 100. 41st on Bill James Top 100. 29th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
3)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A standout National League pitcher of his era. The best possible combination of prime and career, several seasons as one of the best pitchers in the game. He appeared on 19 ballots in his first season, 1940. Last year, he appeared on 10 ballots. Wynn is surprisingly similar, but I still give Grimes the edge. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
For me, the assessment of Bell as an extremely long-serving player with Win Shares to reflect that is not necessarily a strike against him. My ballot history shows a great affinity for such players. But two factors lead me to place him all the way up here: one, the career total is too extraordinary to be ignored. Even if you discount his Win Shares by as much as 20%, he’s still got very impressive numbers. And two, assessments from his contemporaries, which are essential for a player for whom the statistics are necessarily conjectural, describe him particularly skilled on the field and especially prized as a teammate. Way back in the years Rube Foster was on the ballot, somebody commented that the Negro Leaguers would be astonished if Foster was not a member of our Hall. I tend to think the same thing about Bell. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
5)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
A tremendous high with decent career filler. As a Hall member, he would follow in the footsteps of guys like Medwick and Averill. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
6)Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
7)Edd J Roush
And last year’s Ashburn discussion led me to review center fielders. Roush still turned out looking good. Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
8)Willard Brown
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. I share the general concerns about the level of his competition, but not so much so to deny him a spot on the ballot. The general lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy does trouble me somewhat.
9)Early Wynn Jr. – “Gus”
Wait a second. I thought we elected Rixey already. Oh, I see. As mentioned before, similar to Grimes. Also bears more than a passing resemblance to Ruffing (who is his best comp). I haven’t finished a season-by-season analysis, so he has room to potentially move higher. 100th on Sporting News Top 100.
10)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though.
11)Robert Pershing Doerr
12)Joseph Lowell Gordon
13)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
Reading over the discussion thread, I can see that I’ve unfairly slighted Gordon in comparison to Doerr. Sadly, Gordon seems to have been seriously derailed by the war; he only makes one appearance in the AL’s Top 10 Win Shares upon returning to the game. I wish I knew if that was actually war-related, or simply represented a career in rapid decline.
Meanwhile, a quick review of Doyle reminds me that he was the best second baseman in the National League for several years running. His numbers are legit. If we’re really all that concerned about ignoring earlier eras, Larry has to get back into the debate.
14)Carl William Mays
A gentler career arc than that of Ferrell or Lemon, higher highs than Willis. Frankly, I think the only reason more people vote for Lemon is the black ink. Mays is higher in career WS, peak, WS, prime WS, and they’re practically even in gray ink.
15)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but it makes me feel good about the fact that they sit side-by-side on my ballot. (Rice spends this year just off, in the #16 slot.)

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Clark Calvin Griffith
I found that Griffith had striking similarities to Dick Redding, who I have voted for in the past. Redding has a higher peak, Griffith a higher prime. So for the time being, they’ll be my Van Haltren & Ryan of pitchers, hanging out together through thick and thin.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. Only finished in the Top 10 in Win Shares in his league once.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
I tend towards career numbers, but Beckley’s are so without peak that I’m hard pressed to call him a great. Kelly from SD articulated most of my concerns very eloquently. Many, many years ago, the discussion thread debated the comparison of Beckley to Rafael Palmeiro. I need to go and re-read that.
   54. Dolf Lucky Posted: February 03, 2006 at 08:03 PM (#1849287)
1 (-)Stan Musial--On my 18 month old son's wall of fame, along with Gehrig, Ruth, TFB, and Bench.

2 (-)Yogi Berra--Best catcher ever?

3 (-)Early Wynn--Overall WARP numbers similar to Red Ruffing's

4 (1)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

5 (2)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

6 (4)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

7 (6)Ralph Kiner--7 straight years leading the league in homers. Obviously, the career length leaves something to be desired, but Kiner was very dominant for a considerable period.

8 (3)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

9 (9)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

10 (8)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

11 (5)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

12 (10)Vern Stephens--Yes, his counting numbers were helped by the ballpark, and his teammates, but a shortstop with a career 120 OPS+ over 14 seasons is rare enough to merit ballot consideration.

13 (12)Rube Waddell--10 straight years being in the top 5 in strikeouts. 7 straight years leading the league in K/9. Career ERA+ of 134. Dominant.

14 (13)Burleigh Grimes--I like the peak/career combo, and he keeps popping back up as a name to include towards the bottom of the ballot.

15 (15)Johnny Sain--I love his peak, and I give him appropriate credit for missing a big chunk of the prime of his career. WARP paints a peak/prime picture not significantly different from Bob Lemon.

16 Dom Dimaggio
17 Joe Gordon
18 Eddie Cicotte
19 Urban Shocker
20 Al Rosen

top ten omissions:

Mackey and Bell were given full looks at time of eligibility, but were deemed inferior to contemporaries (Brown may warrant a deeper look). Sisler is in the 20-25 range. Beckley lacks the requisite peak, and Griffith/Van Haltren are mired in positional gluts.
   55. Daryn Posted: February 03, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#1849321)
I posted my ballot earlier, but had forgotten that Doerr moved into our consensus top 10. Doerr just misses my ballot. Here is my 21 thru 26 -- similarly valued (IMO) throwing infielders.

21. Pie Traynor -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
22. Joe Gordon
23. Bobby Doerr -- can't really differentiate between Gordon and Doerr.
24. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense.
25. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.
26. Dobie Moore -- I give him 9 years for his career, which is too short for me. The great peak gets him this high.
   56. Sean Gilman Posted: February 03, 2006 at 11:00 PM (#1849594)

1. Stan Musial (-)--He’s really, really good.

2. Yogi Berra (-)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares. According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Cupid Childs (3)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

7. Clark Griffith (5)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

8. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

9. George Sisler (7)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

10. Early Wynn (-)--Win Shares isn’t a fan of his peak, though WARP thinks better of him. Gonna slot him in between Griffith and Mays.

11. Cool Papa Bell (8)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

12. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

13. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

14. Carl Mays (12)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

15. Biz Mackey (13)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

16. Willard Brown (14)
17. Joe Sewell (15)
18. Edd Roush (16)
19. Alejandro Oms (17)
20. Quincy Trouppe (18)
21. Vern Stephens (19)
22. Roger Bresnahan (20)
23. Bob Elliott (22)
24. Ed Williamson (23)
25. Jose Mendez (24)
26. Bobby Doerr (25)
27. Dave Bancroft (26)
28. Ralph Kiner (27)
29. Wally Berger (28)
30. Bucky Walters (29)
   57. Paul Wendt Posted: February 04, 2006 at 04:07 AM (#1849882)
2.Berra Has anyone out there been to the museum in Montclair, NJ?

One SABR chapter meets there. If you are interested, contact them via ; Chapters

2006 REGIONAL CONFERENCE SATURDAY MARCH 4, 9:30 AM to 4:30 PM Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center Montclair State University, Little Falls, NJ
   58. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: February 04, 2006 at 06:07 AM (#1849953)
1969 ballot
Berra and Musial make my PHOM (duh!)

1. Musial - #3 LFer of all-time
2. Berra - #3 catcher of all-time
3. Cupid Childs - best 2B of the 19th century
4. Hugh Duffy - Best of the CF trio
5. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL P of the dead ball era
6. Charlie Keller - Awesome peak
7. Dobie Moore - Awesome peak #2
8. Bucky Walters - Nice peak, just below Ferrell and Lemon
9. Ralph Kiner - seven straight HR titles
10. Clark Griffith - Best 19c pitcher on the board
11. Pete Browning - AA discount, but amazing hitter
12. Joe Gordon - Slightly better than Doerr
13. Early Wynn - Eppa Rixey of the 1950's
14. Bobby Doerr - nearly identical to Gordon
15. Quincey Trouppe - Best non-Yogi catcher on the board

Top 10's
Beckley - No peak
Bell - Not much peak, but better than Eagle Eye
Mackey - Not as good as Trouppe
GVH - #16
Sisler - #18

Sorry for the short ballot but it is late and I am tired.
   59. AJMcCringleberry Posted: February 04, 2006 at 06:40 AM (#1849978)
1. Stan Musial
2. Yogi Berra - I don't think an explanation is necessary for these 2.

3. Bobby Doerr - Great defensive 2B who could hit.

4. George Van Haltren - Good fielder, good hitter. Not a great peak, but racked up 344 WS.

5. Early Wynn - Long career with a very good peak.

6. Jose Mendez - Huge peak. MLE's show him to have four straight 30 WS seasons. Not a very long career though.

7. Willard Brown - Very good-great hitter while playing SS and CF for half of his career.

8. Bob Johnson - 13 seasons and over a 125 OPS+ in each one. 10 seasons above a .290 EQA

9. Fielder Jones - Great defender in center, good OBP.

10. Bucky Walters - I see him as similar to Mendez, about 3000 IP with most of his value packed into a 5-7 year stretch.

11. Joe Sewell - Very good defender and pretty consistent 110-120 OPS+ (OBP heavy) hitter for most of his career.

12. George Sisler - Great peak, but most of his value came before age 30. Lack of walks and injury kept him from being an all time great.

13. Jimmy Ryan - Average defender, similar value as Sisler, but Sisler had the higher peak and higher ranking on my ballot.

14. Bob Elliott - 3B with a 124 OPS+ and very good peak. 4 straight seasons with a 135 OPS+ or better plus 2 others at 134.

15. Ralph Kiner - Not a long career but he sure made the most of it. 149 OPS+, 7 straight HR titles.

16. Gavvy Cravath
17. Wally Berger
18. Clark Giffith - Not that many innings for his era. Top 10 in league only twice
19. Cool Papa Bell - Long career, but not much of a peak.
20. Edd Roush

Biz Mackey - Way down my ballot, I think Trouppe is better
Jake Beckley - No peak.
   60. Patrick W Posted: February 04, 2006 at 01:50 PM (#1850101)
Gil Hodges has trouble surpassing Harry Hooper on the pecking order. Hooper is a P-Hall member so hope springs eternal, but the 1969 backlog is a little more impressive than the 1931 backlog was.

1. Stan Musial (n/a), St.L (N), LF / RF / 1B (’41-’63) (1969) – His first 10 years alone give him the top spot over the backlog. The final 13 would also be good enough to outrank Doerr. Might not be #1 all-time, but if I have the top pick in the all-time baseball fantasy draft, I’m taking the greatest living baseball player over anyone else.
2. Yogi Berra (n/a), N.Y. (A), C (’46-’63) (1969) – Bill Dickey has to be his greatest comp, right? How eerie is it that the Yankees had essentially the same player at catcher for 35 years? In the past 35 years, the Cubs have had about three-gazillion players man 3B.
3. Early Wynn (n/a), Clev. – Wash. (A) SP (’41-’63) – Only won 300 games. You think someone that accomplishes that deserves bonus points on the ballot or something?
4. Bobby Doerr (1), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Obviously a defense and war credit/debit choice, but his offense was both above league and positional averages and the advanced metrics have no question about how valuable a defender he was.
5. Willard Brown (3), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
6. Alejandro Oms (4), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
7. Biz Mackey (5), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967) – He made it in on my ballot.
8. Bucky Walters (6), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value. This causes Bucky to drop on the ballot. It may have been because I just like saying Bucky. Anyone else here read ‘Get Fuzzy’?
9. Dizzy Trout (7), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
10. Joe Gordon (8), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) (1968) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable. .
11. Dutch Leonard (9), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
12. Phil Rizzuto(10), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59)
13. George Van Haltren (11), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
--. Joe Medwick, St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) –
14. Dom DiMaggio (12), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
15. Bob Johnson (13), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume. Baseball Analysts has an article about him this week.

Jake Beckley – Drops off this year.
George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but isn’t.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   61. Chris Cobb Posted: February 04, 2006 at 03:40 PM (#1850138)
1969 Ballot

We get an easy year this time round, as the backlog gets pushed down by a pair of all-time greats about whom nothing but good can be said.

1. Stan Musial (n/e). #6 all time through 1969 behind Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Williams, and Johnson. Best player in the National League since Honus Wagner.
2. Yogi Berra (n/e). #2 catcher all time through 1969 behind Josh Gibson.
3. Early Wynn (n/e). He’s not a shoo-in like the two above him, but he’s slightly above all the non-inner-circle players who make up the rest of the eligibles this year. I had Rixey at #2 last year, and he’s a bit better than Rixey: his durability mattered more in context, and he was a much better hitter. Rixey was the better pitcher, but Wynn was a better player. Just edges Griffith for the #3 spot. I’m going to think more about Wynn vs. Griffith for 1970, when it will matter.
4. Clark Griffith (1). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length, as he would have two more major-league seasons in 1892 and 1893. Superior to several elected pitchers by virtually every measure. I hope to see him elected in the 1970s.
5. Alejandro Oms (3). A great player in the 1920s, his run of solid to border-line MVP seasons is better than Ashburn’s, and I hope that the arrival of Ashburn will give a boost to Oms’ candidacy. His career tailed after his 1930 (injury?) season, but he remained a good hitter with gradually decreasing playing time in my projections. Brown beats him in OPS+, but I think Oms’ superior plate discipline makes him the better offensive player. Given the likelihood that we are missing a season or two of major-league quality seasons at the beginning of his career, I am comfortable with Oms here.
6. Biz Mackey (4). A solid candidate and I hope an eventual HoMer. A stronger candidate than Schang or Bresnahan because of his defensive value (supported by both his reputation and his 1928 statistics), but overall he’s not in the class of Harnett, Dickey, or Cochrane. This placement includes credit for 1932 – I assume that if he had been in the majors, he would not have skipped a season to tour in Japan. I think the gaps in Mackey’s record and the likelihood that his statistics in the mid-1930s understate his value make it appropriate to rank him on the high side of what his current numbers show.
7. Burleigh Grimes (5). I hope Wynn’s appearance will revive Grimes’ candidacy. They had similar careers, except that Wynn was more durable and less erratic than Grimes was. Grimes’ mix of up-and-down years is peculiar.
8. Willard Brown (6). Probably the #4 slugger in the Negro Leagues in the late 1930s and 1940s, behind Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, and Monte Irvin. More raw power than Leonard and Irvin, I think (though less, apparently, than the mysterious Luke Easter), but his lack of plate discipline places him behind the more complete hitters. The plate-discipline issues make him very hard to rate.
9. Joe Gordon (7) I think I’ve been underrating infielders a bit. An eventual HoMer, in my view, a bit better than Doerr, who should also be an eventual HoMer.
10. Dick Redding. (8) One of the great pitchers from the underrepresented late teens and early twenties. His peak falls right in the center of an underrepresented period. Moves up to where my I think he should rank by his standing vs. his contemporaris: I’ve been holding him back a little pending re-evaluation, but since I don’t know if I’ll ever get round to that, I decided to stop waiting on it.
11. Jose Mendez. (9) A player most deserving of a fresh analysis and renewed attention. New data from Brent and Gary A gives us a window into CWL league quality during Mendez’s prime: this may help or hurt his case. I hope I’ll have time to study this in the next few “years” in relation to that data. Moved up now for the same reason as Redding above.
12.Bobo Newsom (10). My system likes Newsom a lot. He had a truly outstanding peak in the late 1930s, which is obscured by the fact that he was pitching for bad teams with bad defenses in hitters’ parks in a high-offense era. Under those circumstances, his 329 IP for the Browns in 1938 is just mind-boggling. His career losing record isn’t anything to celebrate, but I think he brought more value to his teams than did Bucky Walters. A lot like Burleigh Grimes. Both were innings-eaters, with very strong peaks, who also had some bad seasons. I have the following order for late 1930s-to-1950 pitchers: Satchel Paige, Bob Feller, Ray Brown, Hal Newhouser, Bobo Newsom, Bill Byrd, Bucky Walters, Hilton Smith, Leon Day, Dutch Leonard, Dizzy Trout. The first four are obvious Homers, with Newsom, Byrd, and Walters on the border.
13. Edd Roush (11). Great ballplayer, but lots of time out of the lineup keeps him from being higher. His contrast with Ashburn in this respect is particularly striking.
14. Gavvy Cravath. (12) Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding keeps him from being higher. WARP’s coolness towards him drops him slightly.
15. George Sisler (13). Truly outstanding peak, but outside of that seven-year run he was not generally an above-average player.

Consensus top-10 returning players not on my ballot:

George Van Haltren. See #20 below
Cool Papa Bell. See #29 below
Bobby Doerr. See #17 below
Jake Beckley. See #48 below
Dobie Moore. See #45 below
   62. Chris Cobb Posted: February 04, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#1850141)
1969 Off Ballot

16. Ralph Kiner. (14) Pushed off my ballot after holding a spot two years running! Great peak.
17. Bobby Doerr (15). Just off my ballot after a one-year stay in 1968. The Richie Ashburn of second basemen. Brilliant fielder; he really was one of the top players of the 1940s although he lacks a gaudy peak. I think he’s a HoMer, but we need to get a little deeper into the backlog for me to give him annual support.
18. Buzz Arlett. (17) With pitching credit, he had a truly outstanding career.
19. Rube Waddell (18). Folks who have been discussing Joss in relation to Koufax and Dean on the relative ERA+ and IP scales should be considering Waddell in that conversation as well. Without commenting yet on Koufax, I see Waddell as well ahead of Joss and Dean.
20. George Van Haltren (19). Right on the all-time in/out line for me. If we get deep into the backlog in the next decade, he’ll get back onto my ballot.
21. Tommy Leach (20). Ditto.
22. Mickey Welch. (21) Sean Gilman’s comments on Charley Jones and the number of 1930s players we’ve elected made me realize that I was unfairly penalizing the top 1880s candidates. Welch is ahead of Jones in my 1880s rankings, so he moves up, as does Jones.
23. Bucky Walters. (22) His peak is overrated by some, but he was an outstanding pitcher during his prime. Wouldn’t object to his eventual election.
24. Bill Byrd (23). Strongly resembles Burleigh Grimes and Carl Mays, I believe. A little better than Mays but not as good as Grimes, Like them, Byrd was a good hitter; he often played in the outfield when he wasn’t pitching. Like Grimes, he was a spitball/junkball pitcher.
25. Rabbit Maranville. (24) His defensive value and his career length deserve respect.
26. Tommy Bond (25). The biggest beneficiary of my reconsideration of pre-1890 stars this week. My system has him slightly ahead of Charley Jones and I had been ignoring that fact.
27. Charley Jones (26). Had been unfairly buried in my backlog due to period considerations, which I had not reassessed in light of our piling so many 1930s stars into the HoM. I agree that the 1930s had an unusual number of great players, but my downgrading of the top 1880s players was inconsistent with my handling of the 1930s candidates, so Jones has moved up.
28. Roger Bresnahan (27). Also has moved up recently. The aughts have been a well-represented decade, so the remaining stars from that era needed to be reconsidered in light of the handling of the 1930s. As a result, Bresnahan moves up.
29. Cool Papa Bell (28). A borderline candidate from a well-represented period. Ranking doesn’t match reputation, and he’s one of a number of NeL candidates whose MLEs I am going to revisit in the new year, but I’ve generally trusted the numbers more than the reputation for NeL candidates.
30. Cupid Childs (29). I looked at the borderline 1890s candidates again as well this year, checking my system’s results against WARP’s, and Childs rises in my estimation as a result. I don’t really support him for election, but I prefer him to Doyle among second basemen and to Ryan and Beckley among 1890s stars.
31. Don Newcombe. (30) Hard to evaluate, hard to place. As a peak candidate, his peak ranks a little bit below those of Lemon and Walters. His career value is about the same, so he’s in the mix, but not yet near my ballot. I hope he won’t get lost in the shuffle. Is he slightly worse than Byrd and Welch and slightly better than Matlock? No idea, really, but I’ll start him there for now.
32. Leroy Matlock (31). A very fine pitcher, possibly in the top 10 NeL pitchers all time, with a truly outstanding peak 1933-37, but not quite enough career value to reach my ballot. I think he was notably better than Hilton Smith. He was apparently quiet and effective like Hilton, but he didn’t have the right teammates and he died just as interest in the Negro Leagues was reviving, so he didn’t get consideration for the HoF. I don’t think he makes the HoM, though peak voters ought to give him a long look, but he’s deserving of being better known than he was. I need to re-do his MLEs for 1937 in light of fuller information about his play in Santo Domingo.
33. Larry Doyle (32). Dropped significantly in 1956 reevalution of remaining candidates from the 1910s
34. Spotswood Poles (33). Another top NeL candidate from the teens who could use another look, though additional perspective offered by Brent’s CWL data doesn’t help his case.
35. Bob Elliott. (34) Although I’ve advocated for him, I find he’s still a long way from my ballot. He’s just a little bit behind the Hack/Boudreau/Gordon/Doerr group of 1940s infielders. WARP underrates third basemen vs. second basemen, I think, which is too bad for Elliott, since WARP likes him better than WS relative to Stan Hack. But I don’t see a metric that justifies placing him higher right now.
36. Carl Mays. (35) Wes Ferrell lite.
37. Urban Shocker. (36) Someday I’ll take up his cause. Another very well-rounded ballplayer.
38. Bus Clarkson . (37) Perhaps the best player to get no support from the experts in _Cool Papas and Double Duties_. My ranking system using Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs places Clarkson virtually even with Bobby Doerr, but I think the good doctor’s MLEs are a little bit higher than what my own would be, so until I’ve a chance to run my own numbers for Clarkson, I’m going to place him conservatively at the rear of the borderline infielder group for the 1940s: Gordon, Doerr, Elliott, and Clarkson. These four are all very close in value, but when they are shuffled in with 70 years worth of borderline candidates, they end up separated by 30 slots top-to-bottom.
39. Marvin Williams (38). A very difficult career to evaluate. Kudos to Dr. Chaleeko for putting together MLEs! For now, he’s paired with Bus Clarkson, but his case deserves further study, as does Clarkson’s.
40. Bob Johnson (39). Career value is better than Medwick’s, I think, but even WARP1 agrees that his peak and prime trail that of his similar contemporaries Medwick and Averill. I don’t think he’s a HoMer, but he’s close.
41. Jimmy Ryan (40) Nice peak, but in a weak league, and for much of his long career his numbers are not distinguished.
42. Wally Schang (41)
43. Quincy Trouppe (42).

44-48. George Scales, Dobie Moore, Charlie Keller, Ben Taylor, Jake Beckley,
49-53. Dom Dimaggio, Joe Sewell, Dick Lundy, Hugh Duffy (38), Mel Harder,
54-58. Waite Hoyt, Herman Long, Wilbur Cooper, Johnny Pesky, Lave Cross,
59-63. Tom York, Kiki Cuyler, Harry Hooper, Mickey Vernon, Bobby Veach,
64-68. Fielder Jones, Dolf Luque, John McGraw, Ed Williamson, Phil Rizzuto,
69-73. Vern Stephens, Jim McCormick, George J. Burns, Jack Fournier, Bruce Petway,
74-78. Bill Monroe, Dizzy Dean, Babe Adams, Mike Tiernan, Pete Browning,
79-83. Sam Rice, Dave Bancroft, Frank Chance, Leon Day, Tony Mullane,
84-88. Hilton Smith, Ed Konetchy, Addie Joss, Nip Winters, Wally Berger

Other new arrivals worthy of note:

Gil Hodges. A very good player, with a nice nine-year prime. Because of his consistency, I’d probably take Hodges over Vernon if I could pick up either one at age 25, but Vernon’s career overall is more meritorious. Hodges lands just below Vernon, between Ed Yost and Al Rosen in my rankings of the 1950s stars. All three are below the Berger line at the moment, but I may need to give them more credit for improved competition than they have so far received.
   63. Jeff M Posted: February 04, 2006 at 05:32 PM (#1850198)
1969 Ballot

1. Musial, Stan

2. Berra, Yogi – A shame that most of America knows him as a guy with twisted syntax instead of a terrific baseball player.

3. Mackey, Biz – My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher. I must have different numbers for Trouppe, because he doesn’t impress me. I don’t think it is an accident that he wasn’t even considered by the new HOF Negro Leagues project.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

6. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

7. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

8. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

9. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

10. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

11. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

12. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

13. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

14. Wynn, Early – Those wins and the longevity are pretty dazzling, but some of the other numbers are less impressive. If I’ve spotted him wrong on the ballot, he’s probably too high, not too low.

15. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction.

16. Ryan, Jimmy
17. Griffith, Clark
18. Dean, Dizzy
19. Welch, Mickey
20. Long, Herman

Required Disclosure(s):

Van Haltren, George – He’s #32 in my system. Death to George Van Haltren! Oh, wait. He’s already dead.

Bell, Cool Papa – Other than the legend, I cannot see anything that puts him in the elite of all time. I’ve got him as a .303/.346/.427 man, with good but not exceptional defense. He’s #41 in my system, neck and neck with Hack Wilson.

Beckley, Jake – What is there to say about Beckley that hasn’t been said? He’s #55 in my system.
   64. favre Posted: February 04, 2006 at 07:36 PM (#1850284)
1.Stan Musial
2.Yogi Berra
3.Alejandro Oms

Larry Doby is a fair comp for Oms. They were the same type of players, hitting about 140 OPS+ with very good CF defense in their primes. Both had long strings of 25+WS (nine for Oms, eight for Doby), Ashburn is another comp that people have mentioned (327 WS for Ashburn; Oms projected at 340). Guys who can hit and play CF well are very valuable players.

4.Jake Beckley
5.Wally Schang

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons in between where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

This is a pretty high ranking for Schang, but he had nine seasons with an OPS+ of 121 or higher, which is impressive for a catcher. Career .393 OBP in a .349 era.

6.Rube Waddell
7.Jose Mendez
8.Dobie Moore

I know Waddell allowed an inordinate amount of unearned runs, that his RSI index isn’t impressive, and that he was very unreliable. But his top four ERA+ seasons are 179, 179, 165, and 153, and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Arguably better than Feller at his peak.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba. Taken as a whole, this evidence convinces me that he was a better pitcher than Dick Redding.

More does not quite have the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot three decades ago.

9.Tommy Leach
10.Cool Papa Bell

Leach actually has more career WS than any major-league position player on the ballot (well, besides Musial and Berra, who were gods). Played A+ defense at centerfield AND third base, and could hit a little (career 109 OPS+). It’s not like the HoM suffers from a third baseman glut.

I’d rather have Ashburn and Leach in their primes, but over his career Bell both saved and created a whole lotta runs. He deserves to be in.

11.Joe Gordon
12.Ned Williamson
13.Bobby Doerr

Gordon had a 120 career OPS+ while missing two prime years to the war; Doerr had a 115 OPS+ while playing during the war years; both were A defenders. This convinces me that a) Gordon should *absolutely* be ahead of Doerr and b) both players should be on the ballot. We don’t see this kind of combination of defense and hitting at 2B until we reach Joe Morgan and Ryne Sandberg.

Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available almost eighty years after he retired. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson has a better peak and considerably more defensive value.

14.Clark Griffith
15.Ralph Kiner

Griffith made my pHoM in 1930, but fell off the ballot sometime in the 1950s, I think. It must have been a nightmare to pitch in the 1890s: the mound was moved back, offensive numbers were soaring, the best hitters contracted into one league. Griffith was consistently very good through that time period, although I wish his IP were a little higher relative to his contemporaries.

I’ve wanted to put Kiner on the ballot for some time, but I never could quite pull the trigger. Chris’ argument for more ‘40s players made sense, and I also felt my ballot was a little short on big hitters. Kiner’s top three seasons were just fantastic.

16.George Sisler
17.Early Wynn
18.Biz Mackey
19.Roger Bresnahan
20.Gavvy Cravath

Sisler and Mackey continue their on again, off again journey through my ballot. Mackey’s career is impressive, but doesn’t have a lot of peak; Sisler’s prime is outsanding, but not particularly historic for a 1st baseman, and the rest of his career is almost worthless. I’m not really knocking either, though; I think they both belong.

Players like Wynn have traditionally not done very well in my system. This does make me wonder if my system needs revising. I want to think about him for another couple of weeks, so he’s just off the ballot for now.

21.Bob Elliott
22.George Van Haltren

I think Van Haltren gets too much credit from the electorate for his pitching, but he did do a lot of things well for a long time.

23-25: Cupid Childs, Larry Doyle, Edd Roush
26-30: Pete Browning, Bob Johnson, Vic Willis, Burleigh Grimes, Dick Redding
31. Willard Brown

I probably have more distance between Oms and Brown than any other voter. I know their projected WS totals are pretty similar, but I just don’t see it. Oms walked a lot more, he had much more defensive value, and Brown did not have that much more power.
   65. yest Posted: February 05, 2006 at 12:43 AM (#1850447)
1969 ballot
Musial and Berra make my PHOM this year

1. Stan Musial greatest living player(makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Yogi Berra He‘ll like to thank all those who made this election necessary (makes my personal HoM this year)
4. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
5. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
8. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
16. Early Wynn 300 wins
17. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
18. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
19. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
20. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
21. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
22. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
23. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
24. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
25. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
26. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
27. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
28. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
29. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
30. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
31. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Willard Brown barring new evidence with the expetions of Mackey, Bell, and H SMith I think we’re done with the NNL
Bobby Doerr is 59th on my ballot
   66. Gadfly Posted: February 05, 2006 at 12:06 PM (#1850893)
1969 Ballot (Gadfly)

A pretty boring ballot since it’s obvious that Musial and Berra are going to go in easily. Among the other eligible players, Early Wynn and Gil Hodges are interesting fringe Hall of Fame/Merit candidates, but neither is anything special. Wynn grades out as a solid C Hall of Fame candidate with his best asset being the 300 wynns. On the other hand, Hodges is a solid D (not that there’s anything wrong with that) and really should not be considered. Interestingly, Stan Musial’s career, cut in half, almost equals two Gil Hodges.

These four players are the only real viable 1969 candidates; although it’s fun to look at Sherm Lollar and Vic Wertz just to see how much better Musial and Berra were than your average star-for-a-short-time player.

1. Stan Musial (A+10)
Musial, one of the greatest players of all time, was an easy number one choice. By my rating system, Stan the Man was an A plus ten. He’s ridiculously overqualified.

2. Gavy Cravath (A+5)
He was the greatest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, and would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. A Proper evaluation of his Minor League numbers makes it clear that he was a Major League caliber player for 20 years with an astounding peak. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

3. Yogi Berra (A+5)
My system gives catchers a 30 percent bonus for being catchers. Even without the bonus, Berra qualifies as a solid B Hall of Merit choice. With the bonus, Berra ranks exactly were he should: an all-time great.

4. Willard Brown (A+4)
The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. He was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1949 and should have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955 if the world was colorblind. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without wars and stupidity. Brown also walked much more than he is being given credit for in his thread (playing in Puerto Rico during his prime, Brown was walking more than once per every 10 at bats).

5. Luke Easter (A)
Basically Willie McCovey’s bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, World War II military service, injuries, and then age discrimination. Easter is the baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all gotten to play their full careers out in the Majors, Luke Easter would have been the one most remembered. And it's not even close.

6. Dick Redding (A)
Redding would have won over 300 games in the Major Leagues with well over 200 of them coming from 1910 to 1920. A huge man (6 foot 3 or 4 and 210 to 230 pounds) Redding threw hard all the time. He has no real comparable white contemporary which, in and of itself, is an indication of his value.

7. Cool Papa Bell (A)
8. Alejandro Oms (A)
9. Tetelo Vargas (A-)
10. Biz Mackey (A-)

All very overqualified Negro Leaguers and badly underestimated by the conversion rates in use. The three outfielders (Bell, Oms, and Vargas) are all very similar with Oms having the best bat and Bell being the best defensive player. Although I think Richie Ashburn was a fine player, he cannot hold a candle to any of these three guys. Biz Mackey was the black Gabby Hartnett.

11. Charlie Jones(B+)
Jones was clearly a better hitter than Pete Browning or Ralph Kiner, who are both close comps. If he had only played ball from 1871-75, not been blacklisted for two years, and not changed his name, Benjamin Rippay would have been an easy Grade A Hall of Famer.

12. George Van Haltren (B+)
13. Rube Waddell (B)
14. Hugh Duffy (B)

Three more forgotten guys from the turn of the century. Van Haltren is directly comparable to and much better than Jake Beckley; Waddell was great and would have been much greater at virtually any other time in baseball history; and Hugh Duffy was the Kirby Puckett of the 1890s with a longer career.

15. Jose Mendez (B)
Mendez was, for seven years, one of the three or four greatest pitchers extent (with Johnson, Brown, and Mathewson). His career, as a pitcher and light-hitting shortstop lasted 20 years. Basically, he is the ‘Hughie Jennings’ of pitchers.

16. Quincy Trouppe (B)
Trouppe is basically a much bigger, much stronger, better version of Wally Schang and would have walked a 100 times a year in the Major Leagues while hitting for power and average.

17) Ben Taylor (B-)
18) Edd Roush (B-)
19) Charlie Keller (C+)
20) Joe Gordon
21) Chet Brewer
22) Tony Mullane
23) Clark Griffith
24) Tommy Leach
25) Roger Bresnahan
26) Bill Wright
27) Pete Browning
28) Ralph Kiner
29) Burleigh Grimes
30) Bill Byrd
31) George J. Burns (C+)
32) Bucky Walters (C)
33) Dick Lundy
34) Wally Berger
35) Dobie Moore
36) George Sisler
37) Early Wynn
38) Cupid Childs
39) Frank Chance
40) Larry Doyle

As always, I believe that the conversion rates used in the Hall of Merit for Negro Leaguers and Minor Leaguers are inaccurate (see Cravath thread) and unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performances. This, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.

Also, I give catchers a 30 percent position bonus, pitchers a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921, and credit for career interruptions that are timeline related (i.e. wars but not injuries). I also upgrade for various other small things like the 1877-78 and 1892-1900 contractions while downgrading the early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL, etc.

My ballot relies on Win Shares and tries to weight peak and career equally, basically multiplying the total WS of the player's best 5 years by three and adding this number to the total career WS to arrive at a score that looks like an old-fashioned grading system (i.e. 900 and above: Grade A Hall of Fame/Merit player, 800-899: Grade B, etc.). The system favors peak as it should since peak wins pennants.
   67. Thane of Bagarth Posted: February 05, 2006 at 06:11 PM (#1851054)
1969 Ballot

1) Stan Musial
The obvious choice this year ranks between Wagner and Speaker in my all-time list.

2) Yogi Berra
Through this year’s election I have him as the best White catcher ever.

3) Early Wynn
He comes out solidly in Red Ruffing/Ted Lyons territory (actually slightly ahead with a small amount of war credit) which makes him the best available pitcher in my book.

4) Ben Taylor
He's been in the top 5 on my ballot since 1958. I see him as equal to, or slightly better than, Suttles among NeL 1stbasemen.

5) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares and WARP1. His 3 year and 5 year peaks in WS are almost identical to Ashburn’s, but WARP3 gives the 5 year edge to Ashburn (46.7 to 39.0).

6) Bobby Doerr
Best of the middle infielder heap. Great defense and 115 OPS+.

7) Dick Redding
8) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

9) Bucky Walters
On a tightly bunched ballot, Walters comes out 5 spots ahead of Trout, basically thanks to 300 extra IP and a OPS+ advantage of 13 points.

10) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories make him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent.

11) Willard Brown
As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

12) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the 130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

13) Pete Browning
I see him hanging around the bottom third of my ballot for some time to come.

14) Dizzy Trout
Similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peak (~48) to that of Walters, but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

15) Spotswood Poles

Rest of the Top 50
16) Alejandro Oms—Like Mendez and Ruffing, Polse and Oms are hard to separate.
17) Joe Gordon
18) Bill Monroe
19) Jimmy Ryan
20) Charlie Keller
21) Dick Lundy
22) Ralph Kiner
23) Dobie Moore—He could make it back into the top 15 sometime in the foreseeable future.
24) Dom DiMaggio
25) Burleigh Grimes
26) Tommy Leach
27) Ray Dandridge
28) Harry Hooper
29) Bob Johnson
30) Edd Roush
31) Bob Elliott
32) Bobby Veach
33) Joe Sewell
34) George Sisler—Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
35) Phil Rizzuto
36) Biz Mackey—I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
37) Rabbit Maranville
38) Sam Rice
39) Carl Mays
40) Cy Seymour
41) Wally Berger
42) Hugh Duffy
43) Jake Beckley—I can understand why some voters rank him high, my relative preference for peak vs. career just doesn’t favor him.
44) Clark Griffith—A worthy candidate, but I see several other pitchers ahead of him.
45) Lon Warneke
46) George Burns
47) Roy Thomas
48) Kiki Cuyler
49) Lefty O’Doul
50) Leon Day

New Eligibles in Top 100
61) Gil Hodges—Solid player but not a HoMer.
   68. EricC Posted: February 05, 2006 at 07:39 PM (#1851117)
1969 ballot.

1. Stan Musial He's the Man.
2. Yogi Berra Possibly the greatest major league catcher ever.
3. Wally Schang Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, in an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.
4. Joe Sewell Best ML SS of the 1920s.
5. Joe Gordon
6. Bobby Doerr
WWII credit for both, discount for war years, especially 1944. So close that there's no easily identifiable factor why Gordon ends up higher.
7. Early Wynn In relatively terms, out-Ruffings Ruffing as a pitcher with a big career in spite of a low average ERA+.
8. Gil Hodges For strength of the 1950s NL and for being the best or among the best 1B throughout his prime. Plus, lots of HR and lots of RBI! :-)
9. Charlie Keller Win Shares peak overcomes short career; WWII credit. A good test case for examining whether WS unfairly benefits players on good teams.
10. Cool Papa Bell Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.
11. Jose Mendez Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; perhaps in the Lefty Gomez/Dizzy Dean class but better.
12. Sam Rice WWI credit gets him to around 3180 career hits in spite of not playing until age 25 and not being a regular until age 27.
13. Tommy Bridges 2nd-most runs saved above average of all pitchers eligible for Cooperstown, behind Blyleven. A career that's underappreciated because of relatively low numbers of IP per season in his later years.
14. Biz Mackey One of the greatest NeL catchers.
15. Red Schoendienst A little below PHoM cutoff, actually, but among the top 2B in the 40-year span between Gehringer and Morgan. Will have Fox slightly higher.

Griffith, Van Haltren, and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s P, OF, and IF.
Sisler's prime wasn't quite long/strong enough for me.
Willard Brown was one of the top NeL hitters of the 1940s. I look forward to the coming NeL statistical encyclopedia to see whether I may be underrating him.
   69. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 06, 2006 at 02:55 AM (#1851510)
Hey, guys! Back from sunny (mostly this week) Florida.

Mr. Murphy,
I think it's time to modify that Gil Hodges comment. :^)

I think you may have a point, Cliff. :-D I fixed that problem for the futore and the present.

My Dinner with with Yogi

I give it one thumbs up and four stars! :-D
   70. Trevor P. Posted: February 06, 2006 at 05:30 AM (#1851720)
1) Stan Musial (--). Had a HOM career wrapped up before he was 30.
2) Yogi Berra (--). Not too shabby himself.
3) George Van Haltren (1). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares.
4) Jake Beckley (3). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB. Can't be faulted for his teammates' performances, in my mind.
5) Quincy Trouppe (4). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances.
6) Early Wynn (--). In the Ruffing/Rixey mold. A tentative first-year placement; could be as high as third on this ballot.
7) Dick Redding (5). He's sure worked his way up the ballot. Not quite as durable as Wynn, but "Cannonball" threw more high-quality innings than Lemon.
8) Edd Roush (7). 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated. Jumps up when compared to Ashburn.
9) Clark Griffith (16). Big jump for Griffith, as I was not adequately accounting for his play in the contracted NL of the 1890s.
10) Cupid Childs (8). Played 2B as well as Doerr, Gordon, et al. And did it during an era that was much more perilous for middle IF-ers.
11) Bob Elliott (9). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Unfairly underrated by Win Shares.
12) Alejandro Oms (10). Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
13) Wally Schang (11). Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time. 78.0 WARP1 is about one win per full season less than Cochrane.
14) Jimmy Ryan (12). Got more votes than GVH once. League quality issues mean he ranks eleven spots lower.
15) George Sisler (13). Seven seasons of prime, plus eight more as an average 1B.

Biz Mackey - bumped off the ballot in favour of the newbies/Griffith. Currently sitting at #16.
Cool Papa Bell - as we go through the backlog, he gets closer to the ballot, but for now he's still around #22. Too many better centerfielders.
Bobby Doerr - in the mid-twenties, arm-in-arm with Joe Gordon.
Willard Brown - I'm really leery of the walk rate; he looks like a second-rate Joe Medwick, who never made my ballot. In terms of eligible corner outfielders, is behind Bob Johnson, Ralph Kiner, and Pete Browning.
   71. Ken Fischer Posted: February 06, 2006 at 11:45 AM (#1851874)
1969 Ballot

1-Stan Musial 604 WS
Stan is usually part of the discussion when you’re talking all-time team. But first base is already he’s part of a crowded outfield with Aaron, Mays, Ruth, Williams, Charleston, Cobb, Bonds, etc.

2-Yogi Berra 375 WS
He’s my number 2 all-time catcher behind Josh.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

4-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

5-Early Wynn 309 WS
An outstanding pitcher even if he had to hang on for win # 300. Great years with the Indians in the 50s as Feller was fading.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. I moved Dick up after taking another look at my ballot.

8-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

9-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

10-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

11-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of the most overlooked ballplayers in history…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

12-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

13-Gil Hodges 263 WS
Gil would be making big bucks in the AL if he was playing today. He would be a great DH/1B right-handed hitting slugger. He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

16-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

17-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

18-Ralph Kiner 242 WS
Every time I see him on TV or hear him on radio I want to shoot the box. But he deserves to be in the top 20.

19-Joe Sewell 277 WS
Very hard to strike out and had a tough act to follow (Chapman’s death). He made position change (to third base) late in his career and continued to still have great numbers.

20-Red Schoendienst 262 WS
I still marvel at the picture of Red in an old encyclopedia yearbook for 1946. He’s there in the baseball section…being taken out on a DP in the ’46 Series but still making the play.


22-Willard Brown: He's probably close to making my ballot. He is hard to evaluate. I'm still studying his career.

40-Clark Griffith: Ranks tenth on my pitcher depth chart behind Wynn, Welch, Redding, Grimes, Day, Mendez, Mays, Waddell and Trout. I still don't see enough evidence to move Griffith up the ladder.

51-George Sisler: I know a couple HOM voters are big supporters of Sisler. I guess I'm missing the point. Maybe if the Browns won a couple of titles I'd feel differently. Yeah they came close in '22. In the 20s high batting averages weren't enough to win a flag.
   72. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 06, 2006 at 12:54 PM (#1851881)
41 ballots posted up to this point. Still missing ballots from: Don F, Andrew M, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Tiboreau, Michael Bass, Brad G, Max Parkinson, jimd, the Commish, and RmC.

Since he didn't vote in the last five elections, PhillyBooster (one of the HoM old timers) has been removed from the list.
   73. Esteban Rivera Posted: February 06, 2006 at 03:06 PM (#1851958)
1969 Ballot:

This year, 90% of my electoral votes go to Musial, the other half go to Yogi.

1. Stan Musial – Easy top choice this year. To have that consistency at that level for that long is just amazing.

2. Yogi Berra – Just a fantastic catcher and a wonderful baseball character.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

6. Early Wynn – Has enough peak seasons mixed into his long career to make my ballot.

7. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

8. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

9. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

10. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

11. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

12. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

13. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

14. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

15. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

16. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me

17. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

18. Joe Gordon
19. Cupid Childs
20. Bobby Doerr – All three are very close to each other. After adding and subtracting the different types of credit I use, this is the order they ended up in. All of them deserve eventual induction.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.

Willard Brown – Hanging in the 21- 25 range.
   74. DanG Posted: February 06, 2006 at 03:59 PM (#1852011)
Should Bill Bruton have his own thread? He wasn't signed by the Braves until he was 24, then brought to the majors at age 27. Does he deserve any Negro league/minor league credit? What is his fielding letter grade?
   75. Andrew M Posted: February 06, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#1852166)
1969 Ballot

1. (new) Stan Musial. Arguably the greatest living baseball player.

2. (new) Yogi Berra. Arguably the greatest ML catcher.

3. (2) Dobie Moore. Terrific peak for a middle infielder. With a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (new) Early Wynn. I don’t see much difference between him, Rixey, and Ruffing. He pitched forever and some of his career rate stats (ERA+, DERA, etc.) don’t look all that great, but at his best, basically 1950-56 and 1959, he was among the league leaders in IP and ERA each year. Even in his down years of 1957 and 1958 he was effective enough to lead the league in Ks, which isn’t particularly relevant, and was among the league leaders in IP, which is. To my mind easily qualified for the HoM.

5. (3) Larry Doyle. Outstanding hitter (126 OPS+) for a middle infielder and the best position player on some very good Giant teams of the 00s and 10s. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. WS shows him as a C+ fielder, which seems about right to me from what I’ve read about him.

6. (4) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.86 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

7. (5) Edd Roush. First in a group of OFs who I think have about the same argument for election here. I like Roush slightly because I think his peak level of performance was higher than the other guys’. Roush was among the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons and a year in which he was arguably the best player on a team that won a World Series. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

8. (7) Geo. Van Haltren. At his best, I don’t think he was as good as the Roush, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. Good peak and career numbers. Even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

9. (9) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was truly an outstanding player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick or Averill.

10. (10) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher to me, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

11. (6) Alejandro Oms. After reviewing his thread, I think I had him too high last week. I have long had him grouped with Wheat and Roush. Maybe Slaughter would be a comp as well. Riley suggests his skills were similar to P. Waner’s, though maybe that’s too generous. Other names (Cuyler, Beckley, Simmons, Duffy) are mentioned in his thread, and Minoso comes to mind as well. Doesn’t appear to have a huge peak, but was very consistent--8 years with 25+ win shares.

12. (11) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76. Had he pitched more innings per season, he probably would already have been elected—regardless of how troubled he may have been. As it was, his career was relatively short, but he did pitch almost 3,000 innings.

13. (12) Cool Papa Bell. The hardest guy on the ballot for me to rank. Long career in which he contributed many positive things (speed, fielding, lots of singles) to his teams that may not be reflected in his modest OPS+. Or maybe it is, I don’t know.

14. (13) Tommy Bridges. A poor hitter and not much of a workhorse—though he did finish in the top 10 in innings 5 times—but I’ll live with that from a guy with six 140 ERA+ seasons in the 1930s and 40s American League.

15. (14) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF, which has gradually revealed itself as one of my ballot preferences. With reasonable war credit, Gordon seems to have a slightly better HoM argument than Doerr, Lazzeri, or Stephens, though what happened to him in 1946?

Next 5
16. Bob Johnson. OPS+ 138 in over 8,000 PAs.
17. George J. Burns. Outstanding Win Shares
18. Quincy Trouppe. Best of the eligible catchers?
19. Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+ in 6200 PAs hard to ignore.
20. Tommie Leach.

Required disclosures:

Biz Mackey. I don’t see putting him ahead of Trouppe. He’s in the mid 30s on my ballot.
Bobby Doerr. I have him the fourth ranked 2B as I don’t think his peak was quite a good as the guys ahead of him. Currently #23.
Jake Beckley. I have him at #28, though I recognize that placing Sisler at #10 and Beckley at #28 may seem exactly backwards to some.
Willard Brown. #27. Just too much competition for OF spots.
   76. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: February 06, 2006 at 09:25 PM (#1852437)
OK, a nice quiet election this time. As long as my ballot doesn’t get flagged for roughing the kicker (am I allowed to make football jokes here?), this should be pretty damn simple.

1. Stan Musial (new) One of the all-time greats, and perpetually underrated for some reason. Possible contender for “luckiest injury of all time”. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Yogi Berra (new) As others have said, one of the best human beings to ever be involved in baseball. Part of me wishes he hadn’t made up with Steinbrenner, but he made his point. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Early Wynn (new) Extremely durable pitcher who had a very solid prime. Yes, the ERA+ is weak, but that’s the only real flaw. Not a no-brainer, but clearly qualified by the standards we’ve set.

4. Tommy Leach (1) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. The 1900s aren't any better represented than any other era, and worse than some. Made my PHoM in 1940.

5. Bill Monroe (2) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Willard Brown (3) I can't say I'm completely certain of this ranking, with the questions about his walk rate and level of competition. On the other hand, I think he’s better than any of the OF below him on the ballot. Chris's analysis showed him with the best career numbers of the OF candidates he looked at, and the peak numbers may have been deflated by the missing war years. Made my PHoM in 1967.

7. Joe Sewell (4) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. For example, while I have Boudreau higher, I do think the two are somewhat comparable. Boudreau's a little better, but he was playing in wartime, and the first half of his era is much better represented at SS in the HoM (Cronin, Wells, Appling, Vaughan) than Sewell (Lloyd or Wells, and Beckwith). With one possible exception, clearly the best SS on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Dobie Moore (5) The possible exception, because we honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM last year.

9. Quincy Trouppe (6) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

10. Dick Redding (9) Slides down as Rixey moves up, because on direct comparison he suffers a bit. Had a better peak, but Rixey looks like a better prime, with 8 seasons over 20 WS to Redding's 6, plus much more career value.

11. Bobby Doerr (8) For now, I’m keeping him ahead of Childs, even though he wasn't clearly the best of his era, because the whole package is so impressive. I’m still not sure that something isn’t screwy with WARP’s defensive evaluation of him, but after further review, it’s not historically unique.

(11A Richie Ashburn)

12. Cupid Childs (11) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

13. George Van Haltren (12) It may be the case that I just don’t want to move him ahead of Childs because only one is in my PHoM. OTOH, I didn’t make that choice easily, and I can’t say there’s been any major new evidence since then. Consistently good, but never great. There's a lot of guys like him, so it's hard for me to pick any of them out as HoM-worthy. I do find it hard to understand how anyone could have Beckley ahead.
(13A Max Carey, 13B Joe Medwick)

14. Bob Johnson (13) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

15. Gavvy Cravath (14) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Rixey, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

16. Bus Clarkson (15) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
(16A Red Ruffing)
17. Jake Beckley. (16) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
18. Alejandro Oms (17) He's definitely a candidate, and for now I like him better than Cool Papa Bell, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
19. Jose Mendez (18) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer.
20. Biz Mackey (19) I don’t really see him as induction-worthy, but maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
21. Cool Papa Bell (20) It's hard to argue he wouldn't have been a 3,000-hit player in the major leagues, and that does feel like a HoMer, when you consider his speed and fielding reputation. But after looking at Oms, I can't put him first.
22. Phil Rizzuto (21) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
23. Joe Gordon (22) Not that far from Doerr, could be a little higher.
24. Bob Elliott (23) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
25. Ben Taylor (24) Slides behind Beckley for now, but they’re close. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
26. Vern Stephens (25) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto
(26A Sam Thompson, 26B Rube Foster)
27. Bucky Walters (26) Ferrell/Lemon Lite? Very impressive peak, but wartime takes some of the air out.
28. George Sisler (27) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
29. Charlie Keller (28) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
30. Rube Waddell (29) The ERA and K's look nice, but the career just wasn't long enough or consistent enough.
(30A Hughie Jennings)
31. Edd Roush
32. Dick Lundy
33. Charley Jones
34. Roger Bresnahan
35. Clark Griffith (34) Simply not enough better than his non-HoM contemporaries for me.
36. Ralph Kiner
37. Pie Traynor
38. Bobby Veach
39. Tony Lazzeri
40. Burleigh Grimes
   77. Jim Sp Posted: February 06, 2006 at 10:33 PM (#1852563)
Stan Musial. Arguably the greatest living baseball player.

I'd have to give that to Mays, but I would pick Musial over Aaron by a nose.
   78. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: February 06, 2006 at 10:57 PM (#1852601)
Busy week & weekend. Just getting this in under the wire.

1969 ballot:

1. Stan Musial: “Baseball’s perfect knight.” Inner circle. Peak, prime, career. It’s odd how his greatness seems to have been forgotten by a lot of people. I recall there was an interview with him sometime after the Cards won the Series in ’64, in which he said that no, he didn’t regret retiring “a year too soon” because if he’d still been in leftfield, the Cards wouldn’t have won the pennant because they wouldn’t have traded for Brock.

2. Yogi Berra: Great player, best MLB catcher so far. He was durable, too, which was a good thing for him because back then it hurt to miss work when you got hurt and missed work because they didn’t have that insurance that you really need to have nowadays.

3. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 7th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). (eligible 1948, PHOM 1957)

4. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

5. Early Wynn: It should be no surprise I like Wynn since I also like Grimes. Wynn’s better.

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

7. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

8. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

9. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

10. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

11. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

12. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961)

13. Dick Lundy: #3 HOF-caliber career according to Riley after Mackey & Pete Hill. Recently we’ve elected 3 Negro-Leaguer big bats with marginal defensive qualifications: Wilson, Suttles, Beckwith. Players with more balanced resumes have meanwhile had support ranging from solid (Mackey), to moderate (Bell), to minimal (Lundy), to non-existent (Judy Johnson). (eligible 1943)

14. Clark Griffith: Hanging on. See him as the most deserving player left from the ‘90s. (eligible 1912, PHOM 1945)

15. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

16. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4. (eligible 1957)
17. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)
18. Pete Browning (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
19. Pie Traynor (eligible 1941)
20. Waite Hoyt (eligible 1944)
21. Tommy Leach (eligible 1921)

Required comments:
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.
Jake Beckley: I was crazy about him in the ‘20s and he made my PHOM in 1926, I’ve cooled off on him since.
Bobby Doerr: Was on the ballot last year, slips off.
Willard Brown: Must have been a great bad-ball hitter. Why would anyone throw him a strike? I can’t make up my mind about him. I’ll work on that.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940)

HOM not PHOM: Carey, Vance, Ashburn, Slaughter, Averill, Beckwith, Ferrell, Kelley, Sheckard, Jennings, Pike, Pearce, Jackson

PHOM not HOM: Welch, Grimes, Griffith, Waddell, Redding, Bresnahan, Mackey, Beckley, Sisler, Sewell, Browning, Duffy, Bell
   79. jimd Posted: February 06, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#1852626)
Ballot for 1969

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Almost done revising my system. Maybe next year.

1) S. MUSIAL -- !

2) Y. BERRA -- !

3) B. DOERR -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Doerr belongs.

4) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close.

6) E. WYNN -- The good seasons are HOM-worthy and there are more than enough of them. One of the top pitchers of the 1950's.

7) J. GORDON -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Gordon belongs also.

8) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

9) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

10) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

12) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy.

13) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters?

14) B. MACKEY -- Catcher bonus keeps him on ballot.

15) C. GRIFFITH -- Made it on.

16) D. TROUT -- His rating surprised me.

17) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good. Dropped the most in my reevaluations.

18) C. P. BELL -- Hanging around.

19) D. DEAN -- Reevaluated his peak; he's almost ballot-worthy.

20) J. BECKLEY -- Reevaluated his career; he's almost ballot-worthy too.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Joe Tinker, Dick Redding,
23-24) Hugh Duffy, Bob Johnson,
25-26) Dobie Moore, Wally Schang,
27-28) Ray Schalk, Tommy Leach,
29-30) Bill Hutchison, Willard Brown,
   80. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: February 06, 2006 at 11:54 PM (#1852663)
1. Stan Musial LF (n/e) - The 2nd greatest LF of all time as of this ballot. I wonder if he's slightly underrated historically because his career paralleled the #1 guy?
2. Yogi Berra C (n/e) - Arguably the greatest MLB catcher of all-time.
3. Early Wynn SP (n/e) - Take Bob Lemon or Stan Coveleski, and tack on 1500-2000 innings as an innings eater. That's a HoMer to me.
4. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.
5. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
6. Luke Easter 1B (4) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
7. Ralph Kiner LF (5) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
8. Charley Jones LF (6) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
9. Bucky Walters SP (7) - I was underrating him. According to RSI he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call.
10. Phil Rizzuto SS (8) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously.
11. Clark Griffith SP (9) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity or Three-Finger Brown from Griffith?
12. George Van Haltren CF (10) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 22, very tough to evaluate.
13. Cool Papa Bell CF (12) - Awful lot of career value there. Gets a bump this week. I think I had him a little low, given the potential for error in rating Negro Leaguers based on translations, I'm erring a little more on the side of reputation.
14. Virgil Trucks SP (13) - Hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him between Ruffing and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here. I overrated him just a little last time, Lemon and Walters have significantly higher peak with similar career value.
15. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (14) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.

Honorable Mention:

16. Vern Stephens SS (15) - I love shortstops that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Clearly better than Doerr IMO.
17. Dutch Leonard SP (16) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
18. Joe Gordon 2B (17) - Lost two prime years, was cranking out 9-11 WARP1 seasons annually (1939-43) before military service.
19. Bobby Doerr 2B (18) - Too close to call w/Gordon right now.
20. Dobie Moore SS (19) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. But I've been convinced that he played enough (the level of play was never in quesiton) that I should move him way up compared with where I had him. This is similar to where I've put Hughie Jennings in the past.
21. Bill Monroe 2B (20) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
22. Ernie Lombardi C (21) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
23. Biz Mackey C (22) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
24. Jimmy Ryan OF (23) - Could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
25. Wally Schang C (24) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
26. George Sisler 1B (25) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
27. Bob Elliott 3B (26) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
28. Dizzy Trout SP (27) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
29. Tommy Bridges SP (28) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
30. Quincy Trouppe C (29) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
31. Joe Sewell SS/3B (30) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
32. Urban Shocker SP (31) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
33. Burleigh Grimes SP (32) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
34. Dick Redding SP (33) - I see him just a little behind Grimes.
35. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (34) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
36. Bob Johnson LF (35) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
37. Dom DiMaggio CF (36) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
38. Ed Williamson 3B (37) - Still on the board after 70+ years.
39. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (38) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
40. Willard Brown LF (39) - Tough to peg after considering his incredibly low walk rates.
41. Rube Waddell SP (40) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
42. Walker Cooper C (41) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
43. Lave Cross 3B (42) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. Enormous career value. Superb defender at important position(s).
44. Mike Griffin CF (43) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
45. Hugh Duffy OF (44) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan. I just don't see why some people like him so much. What makes him any better than Griffin? Griffin was on base more, and was a better fielder. Griffin had almost as much power. I just don't see it. If Duffy didn't have about 2 seasons on Griffin, he wouldn't be this close.
46. Cupid Childs 2B (45) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, much shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, as Schoendienst is making me re-evaluate the infielders.
47. Edd Roush CF (46) - Weak league hurts him.
48. Larry Gardner 3B (47) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
49. Ben Taylor 1B (48) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is.
50. Pie Traynor 3B (49) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Could move significantly higher once I get a better handle on this.
51. Mel Harder SP (50) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
52. Billy Nash 3B (51) - Similar to Traynor, better glove, less pop.
53. Vic Willis SP (52) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
54. Red Schoendienst 2B (53) - Good player, very nice peak from 1952-54. About equal as a hitter to someone like Concepcion or Campaneris, but they played SS, not 2B. Can't see any way to rank him ahead of someone like Larry Gardner, Billy Nash, Pie Traynor, Cupid Childs, etc.. So I bumped the others, since I don't think Schoendienst should be lower than this.
55. Bobo Newsom SP (54) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
56. Dick Lundy SS (55) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
57. Mickey Welch SP (56) - I should not have completely dropped him from consideration. I think he was a good pitcher, not a great one.
58. Don Newcombe SP (57) - Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see anyway possible to rank him ahead of Mel Harder. I think this is probably too high.
59. Bobby Avila 2B (58) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
60. Charlie Keller LF (59) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.
61. John McGraw 3B (60) - One helluva player - when he could stay on the field. More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
62. Dizzy Dean SP (61) - Great pitcher for a couple years. Too bad his career was cut short.
63. Lefty Gomez SP (62) - Quite comparable to Dean. Similar career value, Dean had the higher peak.
63. Tommy Henrich RF (63) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
64. Alvin Dark SS (63) - Shortstops that can hit league average are a valuable commodity.
65. Alejandro Oms OF (64) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
66. George Scales SS (65) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
67. Mickey Vernon 1B (66) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
68. Addie Joss SP (67) - Not very durable in season, short career. Great whenever he was on the field. Similar to John McGraw in that respect.
69. Pete Browning CF (68) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation. The bat was great, the D was awful and the career was short.
70. Gil Hodges 1B (n/e) - I don't see how he can be ranked above Vernon.
71. Larry Doyle 2B (69) - Another good pre-Ruth 2B, but he wasn't very good defensively, and the position wasn't even difficult at the time. I see him as similar as a hitter to Bob Elliott through 1950. He should be compared to post-war 3B, not 2B. He wasn't as good as Elliott defensively either.
72. Eddie Yost 3B (70) - Very good player, that OBP was amazing, +.051 vs. league average, despite hitting just .254 for his career. Bad D at 3B though, and not much power.
73. Sherm Lollar C (n/e) - Good player, somewhat forgotten by history. Catcher bonus gets him on the ballot.
   81. Michael Bass Posted: February 07, 2006 at 12:16 AM (#1852683)
1. Stan Musial - As obvious choices go, this is pretty high on the list. Simply nothing negative to say about the man. As impressive as Albert Pujols has been so far in his career, he still has nothing on The Man.
2. Yogi Berra - Is he overrated? Yeah, maybe a little, I don't see him in the class of the Benches, even the 30s catchers probably. Not really enough peak for me (affected by league quality issues, of course). Still, duh HOMer, and a wide gap between him and the rest of the class.
3. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
4. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in.
5. Early Wynn - The Ruffing and Lyons comps work for me; lots of career and prime. I like Wynn better as I think his peak is a touch higher. Faber isn't a good comp in my book, Faber's prime was shorter, peak much higher.
6. Bobby Doerr - His fielding is what pushes him over the edge...incredible with the leather, plenty good with the stick. Lots of prime, Sewell+.
7. Clark Griffith - Best player from the 1890s left, by a wide margin I'd say. Peak, prime and career, a little of each, I love him.
8. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
9. Bucky Walters - I am about alone on Bucky, but he has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
10. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
11. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B.
12. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
13. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO.
14. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
15. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.

16. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.
17. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.

18. Biz Mackey
19. Fielder Jones
20. Dizzy Trout
21. Bob Elliot
22. Urban Shocker

23-25: Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms
26-30: Bond, Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock, D. Dimaggio
31-35: Uhle, Grimes, Scales, Kiner, B. Taylor
36-40: Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton, Poles
41-45: Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays, Clift
46-50: Childs, Bartell, Klein, Byrd, Ryan

Red Schoendienst - Hall of very good. Not much to say.

Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread?

Mackey - #18. Prime, yes. Peak maybe. Career maybe. The last 10 years of his career add zero to his case for me, but nor do they subtract (his career estimated OPS+ is tarnished heavily by this).

GVH - #28. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

Bell, Beckley - Off ballot. No peak, not even much prime. With Bell, I'm open to a reinterpretation of his numbers, but the numbers given right now don't do anything for me.
   82. OCF Posted: February 07, 2006 at 12:48 AM (#1852712)
Everyone who voted in 1968 or 1967 has now voted, along with one new voter (caspian88), so it is very likely that the election is over. 48 voters. 82 candidates receiving votes.

Musial is elected unanimously and Berra is elected overwhelmingly. There is no surprise in that. What may surprise some of you is that Early Wynn is a clear third, with a vote pattern that establishes that, barring a massive (and unprecedented) reevaluation, he will be elected.

Average consensus score +1.9, the highest sence 1962 and essentially tied with 1962 for the second highest since 1955. Highest possible consensus score: 13. This will, of course, go back down. Musial and Berra are now off the ballot, and below them, we're as fractured as ever.
   83. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 07, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#1852724)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   84. jimd Posted: February 07, 2006 at 01:23 AM (#1852756)
His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.

Does anyone know of someone whose WS numbers are terrible? I don't mean receiving one of James' F ratings. I mean getting close to 0.0 FWS for a season as a regular (say 120+ G). As bad with the glove as Rey Ordonez was with the bat.

Because hitting is 3 times more important that fielding (so says WS), these guys should be much more common than the Ordonez' of the world. Because there exist hitters that are close to James' sub-replacement level, there should exist fielders (that can hit) that are close to the sub-replacement level on the fielding side. If not, then James has been way too conservative on the negative side in his fielding ratings.

Putting some numbers on this, let's say 0.3 FWS at 1B, 0.4 at corner OF, 0.8 at CF&3B;&2B;, 0.9 at SS (or less) for a full-time regular. Anyone seen one of these guys?

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