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Monday, February 27, 2006

1971 Ballot

Newbies: Warren Spahn, Nellie Fox, Roy Sievers, and Vic Power.

Returnees: Clark Griffith, Biz Mackey, Cool Papa Bell, George Van Haltren, Bobby Doerr, George Sisler, Cannonball Dick Redding, and Joe Gordon.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 27, 2006 at 01:13 PM | 82 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 27, 2006 at 01:21 PM (#1876433)
hot topics
   2. karlmagnus Posted: February 27, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#1876453)
Spahn’s a NB, with a bit to spare, in spite of unimpressive ERA+. Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit. Sievers not bad but missing most of several seasons gave him a short career – also off bottom.

1. (N/A) Warren Spahn 5243 IP, the most since the Big Train (and only a few coming up subsequently – Clemons is 500 short.) 363-245. 118ERA+ the only non-elite stat, but the IP compensates for that. Unlike Berra and Snider, better than his reputation.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8) Addie Joss. I’m convinced I missed him earlier. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 141. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130, at #3 on this list. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136, still good for just below Wynn.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-
10-9-9-11-10) Clark Griffith. Credit for 1892-3 moves him up a notch. 3385 IP, 237 wins (say 270 with credit) and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.
   3. karlmagnus Posted: February 27, 2006 at 02:21 PM (#1876455)
11. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

13. (N/A-10-9-12-11-13-15-14-14-14-13-12-15-14) Bobby Doerr. 2042 hits but missed a year for the war. OPS+ only 115, but they’re using a funny corrector for Fenway, as his raw stats are much better than Boudreau, whose OPS+ is 120. 2042 hits (plus 1 wartime season) TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .754. Down a bit on reflection.

14. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B. Back off ballot after a few years just on.

15. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.


16. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32.

17. (N/A) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

18. Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

19. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

23. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF. Moved up a bit on new projections

24. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759
25. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
26. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
28. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
29. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Billy Pierce. Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie.
34. Sal Maglie. At 175% of visible career he would have been 208-108, with a 126 ERA+ in 3015 innings. That puts him about here.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. Bob Elliott
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
45. Cool Papa Bell. Hugely overrated by history. Lou Brock minus, without 3000 hits and Brock would only just make this ballot.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Joe Gordon.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Gil Hodges Significantly shorter career than Hooper/Ashburn, but a bit better. No war credit, I think. 1921 hits at 120 OPS+ TB+BB/PA .539, TB+BB/Outs .807
62. Jules Thomas.
63. Wilbur Cooper
64. Bruce Petway.
65. Jack Clements
66. Bill Monroe
67. Jose Mendez
68. Herb Pennock
69. Chief Bender
70. Ed Konetchy
71. Jesse Tannehill
72. Bobby Veach
73. Lave Cross
74. Tommy Leach.
75. Tom York
   4. yest Posted: February 27, 2006 at 03:56 PM (#1876528)
1971 ballot
Spahn and Fox make my PHOM this year

1. Warren Spahn He will make the Hall of Merit he eventually stopped pitching(makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Cool Papa Bell the lack over support for Bell is mind boggling to me he was almost universally considered one of the top 5 Negroe Leaguers ever the stats that we have for him are amazing he played good for almost 25 years he was one of the smartest players in Negro Leagues (made my personal HoM in 1948)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (makes my personal HoM this year)
8. Biz Mackey another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
19. Clark Griffith 54th in wins (made my personal HoM in 1912)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (makes my personal HoM this year)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Joe Gordon would need a real lot of war credit to even approach my ballot
Willard Brown, Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez barring new evidence with the expetions of Mackey, Bell, and H SMith I think we’re done with the NNL
Bobby Doerr is around 20 spots away from that which I posted
   5. ronw Posted: February 27, 2006 at 05:20 PM (#1876663)
1971 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Warren Spahn Next.

2. Dick Redding May be more similar to Spahn than we realize. I hope he gets elected to the HOF today.

3. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

4. Larry Doyle We generally elect hitters of this caliber, no matter what the fielding.

5. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

6. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

8.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

9. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

10. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

11. Willard Brown New numbers boost him.

12. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

13. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Clark Griffith The Old Fox is looking better.

15. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak this week, and came away less impressed.


16. Minnie Minoso

17. George Sisler

18. Cool Papa Bell

19. Ben Taylor

20. Alejandro Oms

Missing top 10

Early Wynn – He’s close, but will probably not make my ballot before he is elected.

Bobby Doerr – Even with war credit, he seems surprisingly similar to Johnny Evers. (Evers – 198.1 BWS in 1784 G, Doerr 196.4 BWS in 1865 G.)

Joe Gordon – I do see him as very similar to Doerr, but both are off my ballot. (Gordon 172.8 BWS in 1566 G. Evers 18.0 BWS/162 G, Gordon 17.9 BWS/162G, Doerr 17.1 BWS/162G.)


Nellie Fox – Continuing with the 2B theme above, Fox has 193 BWS in 2367 G, for a 13.2 BWS/162 G.

Roy Sievers – I would never have guessed he was similar to contemporary Gene Woodling.

Vic Power – Not really enough for long enough.
   6. DavidFoss Posted: February 27, 2006 at 05:23 PM (#1876668)
Early Wynn – He’s close, but will probably not make my ballot before he is elected.

Probably not. :-)

I should probably work on some new comments myself as many of mine are looking quite stale.
   7. Rusty Priske Posted: February 27, 2006 at 06:40 PM (#1876821)
PHoM: Warren Spahn & Nellie Fox beat out the backlog.

1. Warren Spahn (new)

Remember when I said I didn't like the term 'no-brainer'?

Oh well.

2. George Van Haltren (2,3,5)

One day, George, one day.

3. Willard Brown (3,4,1)

Did everyone see the article on Primer?

4. Cool Papa Bell (7,6,9)

5. Biz Mackey (5,7,6)

6. Jake Beckley (4,5,4)

7. Dobie Moore (10,9,7)

8. Mickey Welch (8,8,8)


9. George Sisler 12,10,10)

10. Tommy Leach (9,12,12)

11. Hugh Duffy (11,11,11)

See Welch, Mickey.

12. Nellie Fox (new)

13. Edd Roush (13,14,13)

14. Quincy Trouppe (14,15,15)

15. Bobby Doerr (15,x,x)

16-20. Griffith, Redding, Ryan, Childs, White
21-25. Smith, Streeter, Minoso, Strong, Willis
26-30. Gleason, Greene, Monroe, Mullane, Kiner
   8. sunnyday2 Posted: February 27, 2006 at 07:52 PM (#1877001)

Warren Spahn and Nellie Fox go PHoM

1. Warren Spahn (new, PHoM 1971)—an easy choice

2. Dobie Moore (2 last week-3-1, PHoM 1942)—still the best peak available

3. George Sisler (3-4-2, PHoM 1938)
4. Pete Browning (4-5-3, PHoM 1961)
5. Ralph Kiner (5-6-4, PHoM 1964)--big peak hitters

6. Jose Mendez (6-8-6, PHoM 1957)—big peak pitcher

7. Nellie Fox (new, PHoM 1971)—best available 2B

8. Willard Brown (8-9-7, PHoM 1966)—big peak/prime/career hitter, now a member of the “other” HoF

9. Minnie Minoso (9-x, PHoM 1970)—comps are Brown and Enos Slaughter, speaking from a peak/prime standpoint.

10. Rube Waddell (7-7-7, PHoM 1932)
11. Tommy Bond (11-8-9, PHoM 1929)—more big peaks

12. Dick Redding (10-11-11, PHoM 1968)—I am not discouraged by the Cooperstown vote

13. Joe Gordon (12-15-15)—at the head of the IF glut but virtually indistinguishable from Doerr, Doyle, Childs and Monroe

14. Addie Joss (13-10-8, PHoM 1967)—another big peak

(14a. Harry Stovey)
(14b. Early Wynn)

15. Charley Jones (15-x-10, PHoM 1921)—surprise! Another peaker

(15a. Earl Averill)

Drops out: Ed Williamson (14-13-9, PHoM 1924) and (Stan Hack [13a]))


16-20. Doyle, Doerr, (Hack), (Rixey), Williamson*, Duffy, Dean
21-25. Stephens, Cicotte, Keller, Klein, Trouppe
26-30. Roush, Cravath, Cicotte, Griffith, Sewell
31-35. Childs*, (Ruffing), Monroe, Tiernan, Lundy, Oms

Required: Biz Mackey is in the 40s, as I prefer Trouppe and Bresnahan. Van Haltren, Bell and Beckley--the peakless wonders—remain in consideration but below #40.
   9. Jeff M Posted: February 28, 2006 at 03:03 AM (#1877698)
No changes based on Negro Leagues HoF election. It confirmed my thoughts on Redding and Moore. I'm a bit concerned about my ranking of Oms, though.

1971 Ballot

1. Spahn, Warren – Who needs Sain?

2. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher. I must have different numbers for Trouppe, because he doesn’t impress me. I don’t think it is an accident that he wasn’t even considered by the new HOF Negro Leagues project.

3. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson. I’d like him better without those SimScores.

6. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

7. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

8. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

9. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

10. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

11. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. I’ve looked at all the miscellaneous league data to the point I’m actually mad at him for playing in so many leagues. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

12. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not convinced it was quite HoM level.

13. Sewell, Joe – He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

14. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Fox and Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction.

15. Ryan, Jimmy -- Still better than Van Haltren.

16. Pierce, Billy
17. Griffith, Clark
18. Dean, Dizzy
19. Welch, Mickey
20. Fox, Nellie

Required Disclosure(s):

Van Haltren, George – He’s #33 in my system.

Bell, Cool Papa – Other than the legend, I cannot see anything that puts him in the elite of all time. I’ve got him as a .303/.346/.427 man, with good but not exceptional defense. He’s #42 in my system, neck and neck with Hack Wilson.

Doerr, Bobby – Just off the list by fractions of a point, at #23.

Redding, Dick – Not even part of my consideration set, and my consideration set has 97 members.
   10. Adam Schafer Posted: February 28, 2006 at 06:40 AM (#1877817)
My number one pick this year is Effa Manley...ummmm nevermind

1. Warren Spahn - One of my personal all-time favorites.

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

3. Clark Griffith - wonderful career value

4. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

5. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

6. Bobby Doerr - Good hitting 2nd baseman. Enough career to make my ballot.

7. Gavvy Cravath - Gavvy bursts onto my ballot this year. I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

8. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

9. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

10. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

11. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career. Enough to scratch the bottom of my ballot.

12. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

13. Rube Waddell - Not quite Newhouser's peak, but not too shabby himself

14. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

15. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

16. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

17. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

18. Cool Papa Bell - creeps up a little bit to take over this position from Bresnahan

19. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

20. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.
   11. OCF Posted: February 28, 2006 at 07:46 AM (#1877839)
1971 ballot.

When I paid youth baseball, we used wooden bats. The bats came in various models with the names of players, active or retired, on them. When I was 15 or 16 years old (in Colt League) I decided that my hands weren't comfortable on skinny bat handles, so I consciously sought out the thickest-handled bats I could find. (That was foolish of me, but it's not like I was going to be a good hitter in any case.) I remember two bats that I liked: one was a Jackie Robinson model, and the other, which I liked even more, was a Nellie Fox model.

One thing: you just don't break a bat like that.

1. Warren Spahn (new) He was good. For a long, long time.
2. Larry Doyle (3, 2, 1, 3, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. George Van Haltren (5, 3, 2, 4, 3) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
4. Billy Pierce (----, 4) See his thread for more. Better than Lemon. I like him better than Wynn. One thing to note: he had significant relief usage throughout his career (the old Grove/Johnson/3F Brown pattern), presumably at high leverage.
5. Ralph Kiner (7, 5, 4, 5, 5) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
6. Orestes Miñoso (----, 13) Moved him up based on what's been posted lately.
7. Joe Sewell (8, 6, 5, 7, 7) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
8. Quincy Trouppe (9, 7, 6, 8, 8) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
9. Biz Mackey (10, 8, 7, 9, 9) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Berra didn't have quite the hitting career needed for election as a corner player.
10. Jose Mendez (11, 9, 8, 10, 10) A peak-value pitching candidate.
11. Dick Redding (12, 10, 9, 11, 11) A career-value pitching candidate.
12. Jake Beckley (13, 11, 10, 12, 12) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
13. Bob Elliott (15, 13, 11, 13, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
14. Mickey Vernon (16, 14, 12, 14, 15) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
16. Willard Brown (17, 15, 13, 15, 16) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.

16. Hugh Duffy (18, 16, 15, 16, 17)
17. Nellie Fox (new) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
18. Bucky Walters (19, 17, 16, 17, 18) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
19. Cool Papa Bell (24, 22, 21, 22, 23) A legend, of course, with a very long career. Moved him up because of the fuss I was making about Fox's long career and defense.
20. Phil Rizzuto (20, 18, 17, 18, 19) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (21, 19, 18, 19, 20) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Joe Gordon (22, 20, 19, 20, 21) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.
23. Tommy Bridges (23, 21, 20, 21, 22) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
24. Edd Roush (25, 23, 22, 23, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
25. George Sisler (26, 24, 23, 24, 25) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Vern Stephens (27, 25, 24, 25, 26)
27. Bobby Doerr (28, 26, 25, 26, 27)
28. Dobie Moore (29, 27, 26, 27, 28) Short career, high peak.
29. Bob Johnson (30, 28, 27, 28, 29)
30. Frank Chance (-, 29, 28, 29, 30) A great, great player - when he was in the lineup, which is the problem.

Clark Griffith: going by RA+ and IP, I have trouble putting him ahead of Vic Willis.
   12. OCF Posted: February 28, 2006 at 07:49 AM (#1877840)
That's supposed to be a #15 vote for Willard Brown.
   13. Daryn Posted: February 28, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#1877980)
I have Doerr at 22, right behind Gordon at 21. Only the top 10 or 11 on this ballot would make my own Smaller Hall.

1. Warren Spahn – his 15 all-star appearances are three more than the great Hall of Famer Nellie Fox.

2. Cool Papa Bell – It seems likely he would have exceeded 3000 hits with tremendous speed and great defense in a key position. The appearance of Snider in 1970 made me reassess Bell in comparison to the 300 game winners. Bell came out on top – but take that with a grain of salt you peak voters, Brock should make his way up here too.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes at 4 and Griffith at 13, which results in 7 pitchers on my ballot. Grimes is among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

6. Dick Redding – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me. Nice to see him crack our top-10. I'm surprised when I see people say that they think the recent HoF voting should effect our evaluation of these players -- until we get new info, if any, I don't see how the voting should affect us.

7. Biz Mackey – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (15) or Schang (28).

8. Nellie Fox -- he falls somewhere between here and 16 on my ballot. I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position. Does anyone have a website that lists all time hits leaders by position? His 2100 singles are almost exactly the same number Sisler hit. Coincidence? I don’t think so.

9. George Sisler – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

11. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown). I simply don’t understand how Vance and Newhouser get elected easily and Rube gets hardly any votes.

12. George Van Haltren – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with Mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely better than Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Mendez, Joss, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin. That’s 25 pitchers. It is tough to separate the wheat from the chaff among the pitchers. Sadly, it looks like this year I am going to lose my placeholder for all these pitchers.

14. Addie Joss – I used to have him on the ballot, but then dropped him, perhaps due to peer pressure. But in preparing for Koufax, I asked myself what kind of short pitching career would be ballot worthy (I’m not sure Koufax is); my answer was Joss’. It goes without saying but I give no credit for anything after April 14, 1911. I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. So, to make a long story short, he’s back on the ballot.

15. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
   14. Mark Donelson Posted: February 28, 2006 at 04:00 PM (#1878048)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker.

This time around, I used the candidacy of Fox as a springboard to reevaluate 2Bs; a number of them moved around, with Gordon and Doerr both moving up and Doyle moving down (Lazzeri and Stanky both moved up too, though that movement occurred off the radar of my top 50).

Spahn and Gordon make my pHOM.

1971 ballot:

1. Warren Spahn (pHOM 1971). You know, if I’d just done my research before posting on the discussion thread, I would have saved us all a number of posts. No, he doesn’t have the short-dominance peak of Koufax/Dean/Joss, but he dominated in a different way: He was more than very good for more than very long. Best pitcher in the NL five times is good enough for me.

2. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak.

3. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). We still need more pitchers, and to me, he looks like the best one still out there (other than Spahn). Welcome to the HOF, José!

4. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m still his best friend, it seems. Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

5. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in. As a peak voter, guess who I choose.

6. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another from that underrepresented era, and another infielder with a great peak. My 2B reevaluation leaves him exactly where he was before, at the head of the pack.

7. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

8. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

9. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). Looks like a great hitter to me, even if he didn’t walk much. Another new HOFer to congratulate!

10. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, an impressive peak by any of my favorite measures.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

12. Clark Griffith (pHOM 1970). His slow crawl from the bottom of my consideration set to my ballot is complete, just in time (it appears) for him to be elected.

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

14. Joe Gordon (pHOM 1971). My 2B reevaluation gives him (along with some other 2Bs) a decent boost; he'd been suffering every time I did a pitcher reevaluation, which was unfair. With war credit, he’s clearly worthy.

15. Eddie Cicotte. Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.
   15. Mark Donelson Posted: February 28, 2006 at 04:02 PM (#1878054)
16-20: Walters (pHOM 1968), Rosen (1968), Keller, Sisler (1939), Bresnahan
21-25: Redding, C. Jones, [Reese], Browning, Fox, [Slaughter], Mackey (1958)
26-30: Leach, Doyle, Berger, Joss, H. Wilson
31-35: Oms, Doerr, Minoso, Chance, Cravath
36-40: Poles, [Ashburn], [Lyons], Roush, McCormick, Ryan, McGraw
41-45: Burns, Elliott, [Wynn], Pierce, Pesky, [Rixey], Welch
46-50: [Lemon], Van Haltren, Trout, Veach, Rizzuto, B. Johnson

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, but at #25, he is getting closer to my ballot.

•Bell. I took another look, but even with a bump to reduce the smoothing effect of the WS estimates, I still feel he’s just not a peak voter’s type, unless you go entirely on reputation. Not terribly close to my top 50.

•Van Haltren. Not a peak voter’s kind of hitter. He’s at #46.

•Doerr. I see Gordon and several other middle infielders as more deserving. The reevaluation of 2Bs moved him up, but only a bit. He's midpack at #32.

•Sisler. After a demotion some years back, he’s crept back to the edge of my ballot, depending on who the new candidates are. Presently #19.

•Redding. I like him, but not quite enough—he doesn’t appear to have had the peak I’m looking for. At #21.

•Fox. The motivator for my 2B reevaluation does pretty well by me, but his hitting just isn’t quite enough to get him into Childs/Gordon territory. He debuts at #24.

•Sievers. Classic HOVG player. Not close to my top 50.

No other newbie made my consideration set, though Frank Lary was an interesting surprise. (He was better than I’d realized, if only for a very short time.)
   16. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 28, 2006 at 04:54 PM (#1878149)
Does anyone have a website that lists all time hits leaders by position?

No, but I often use the Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia for sorting data like this.
   17. TomH Posted: February 28, 2006 at 05:09 PM (#1878190)
1971 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

HoF election: the voices of this committee ought to hold some weight, just like general reputations and anything else we use. Willard Brown moves up a few spots for me this ballot, Mendez jumps up more than a few, Oms loses a couple, Mackey unchanged.

If I can strongly support guys like Walters, Chance and McGraw, and still be one of the top ‘consensus’ guys, we really do have a lot of ballot variety.

1-Warren Spahn {new}
The 26th greatest player ever. ‘Cause I said so.
2-Clark Griffith (2) [3]
Brought many, many victories to otherwise mediocre teams. More than any other player in our backlog.
3-Joe Sewell (3) [18]
A many-tooled fine player lost in the shuffle of those who favor career-only or peak-only. Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
4-Cool Papa Bell (5) [5]
The basestealing of Vince Coleman with the CF ability and career length of a Willie Mays. Even with an average bat, he’s probably a HoMer.
5-George Van Haltren (4) [6]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in under-represented 1890s.
6-Bucky Walters (7) [22]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
7-John McGraw (8) [37]
2nd in RCAP among ALL third basemen for MLB’s first 100 years. And, the HoM is short of 3Bmen. And short of 1890s infielders. And he was a brilliant tactician. Look deeply into my eyes while I chant “vote for mugsy….vote for mugsy…”
8-Joe Gordon (9) [10]
Nudges out Doerr; mostly on close pennant races won vs. lost.
9-Willard Brown (14) [12]
Bumped up a bit, as my assumption of his poor plate discipline has been tempered. And the HoF thing.
10-Biz Mackey (11) [4]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
11-Billy Pierce (10) [23]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
12-Minnie Minoso (off) [20]
Looks a lot like Bob Johnson. But a teensy bit better.
13-Frank Chance (12) [44]
Y’all know how I feel.
14-Jake Beckley (13) [13]
Fine career.
15-Ralph Kiner (15) [14]
Great prime. A few penalty points for being in B. Rickey’s doghouse.

Nellie Fox – nice player, but a 94 OPS+ ain’t gonna cut it unless he was Maz/Ozzie with the glove, and he was not quite that. Doesn’t measure up to many other worthy backlog 2Bmen, unless one is a strict careerist voter. Would rank about #40.

16 B Johnson – very good long prime
17 G Sisler – great prime; almost Kiner
18-20 T Leach, C Childs, B Monroe
21-23 B Doerr, J Mendez, R Bresnahan
24-27 P Traynor, A Oms, P Rizztuo, D Moore,
28-30 P Browning, M Welch, W Schang
Others near the ballot:
Ernie Lombardi …a little speed would have made him a HoMer
Rube Waddell ...Great ERAs & KOs, but many UER and not at the top of his era.
Don Newcombe … Great prime. Less disastrous post-season results sure would help
Dizzy Dean ...Great pitcher…for a while
Dick Redding …could be #3, could be #99. Same with Luke Easter. Same with….
…Gavy Cravath! … might belong also, but it’s real, real hard to tell
   18. DL from MN Posted: February 28, 2006 at 07:58 PM (#1878458)
1971 ballot
1. Warren Spahn - I'm giving him 1.5 seasons of extra credit, not that he needs it
2. Cool Papa Bell - giving him credit as just better than Ashburn
3. Bob Johnson - Almost as much batting value as Kiner, much better glove
4. Billy Pierce - LOTS of above replacement value, some prime
5. Bobby Doerr - My favorite 2B available. One more season of value than Gordon
6. Ralph Kiner - Best peak hitter available. Would rank higher if he could play a little defense
7. Clark Griffith - Best 1890s player available
8. Joe Gordon - Solid career, strong war credit
9. Biz Mackey - Never thought he'd be on the HOF not HOM list
10. Minnie Minoso - giving 1.5 seasons extra credit
11. Tommy Bridges - One of the better wartime pitchers
12. Quincy Trouppe - No doubts here about his athletic talent, some concerns about his longevity as there couldn't have been high caliber baseball in North Dakota
13. Bob Elliott - Makes my ballot, I see him as the best 3B available though maybe I just like guys named Bob
14. Jake Beckley - I think he's worthy but I always find a dozen players I like better.
15. Chuck Klein - another peak hitter in the mold of Kiner
16. Willard Brown - moves up the ballot as I get more confidence in his slugging numbers. From all accounts the laziest player on the ballot. His defense must have ranged from Manny/Canseco when he was bored to above average when he thought it counted.
17. Rube Waddell - hanging around the fringes
18. George Van Haltren - My favorite 1890's outfielder
19. Gavy Cravath - giving him credit for 4 extra seasons. Giving him credit for another season would put him in 13th. He had a terrific bat.
20. Jose Mendez - Another player I've reduced my "certainty" discount on.
21-25. Dizzy Trout, Joe Sewell, Fielder Jones, Vic Willis, Dobie Moore
26-30. Charlie Keller, Alejandro Oms, Dick Redding, Edd Roush, George Sisler

Nellie Fox had a terrific glove but his bat doesn't measure up. He's in the 40's with Vern Stephens, Pie Traynor, Johnny Pesky and Cupid Childs.

Roy Sievers and Vic Wertz are equivalent in value, neither are worth voting for. Haddix is in the 60s. People complain about Max Carey, but I scored Bob Lemon and he ranked 38th on my list.
   19. Rob_Wood Posted: March 01, 2006 at 01:47 AM (#1878988)
1971 ballot:

1. Warren Spahn - all time great & Milwaukee's finest pitcher
2. Jake Beckley - career value voter's "dream"
3. George Van Haltren - great CF from underrepresented 1890s
4. Bobby Doerr - according to my system, most similar players include Jeff Kent, Ken Boyer, Gary Carter (!), and Joe Cronin
5. Joe Gordon - slightly behind Doerr
6. Bob Johnson - most similar players include Chuck Klein, Dick Allen, Jack Clark, and Will Clark
7. Ralph Kiner - most similar players are Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, if they retired now
8. Willard Brown - deservedly just elected to HOF
9. Nellie Fox - most similar to Red Schoendienst, Dave Bancroft, Dick Baartell, Dave Concepcion, and Omar Vizquel (Fox is the best of the bunch)
10. Bob Elliott - very good third baseman largely forgotten
11. Cupid Childs - great 2B from underrepresented 1890s
12. Clark Griffith - significant pitcher of the 1890s+1900s
13. George Sisler - surely worthy of ballot slot
14. Tommy Bridges - worth another look if you haven't recently
15. Dobie Moore - just passed over for HOF

Group top 10 that I am not voting for: Biz Mackey (tho I may reconsider given HOF vote), Cool Papa Bell (in the 20's or 30's), and Dick Redding (much lower).
   20. Rick A. Posted: March 02, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#1880383)
Warren Spahn
Ralph Kiner

1971 Ballot
1.Warren Spahn – No Brainer Elected PHOM in 1971
2.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
5.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
7.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
12.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
13.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
14.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
15.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation.

New eligibles
Nellie Fox I have him ranked around Gordon and Doyle.

Required Disclosure
Griffith and Van Haltren Not close to my ballot
Bell and Sisler Just miss my ballot
Doerr and Gordon Gordon is around Fox, in the 30's. Doerr just doesn't look as impressive to me.

Off the ballot
16-20 Bresnahan,Dean,Minoso,Monroe,Leach
21-25 Bell,Oms,Waddell,Mays,Matlock
26-30 Sisler,Roush,Johnson,McGraw,Cravath
31-35 Fox,Gordon,H.Smith,Elliott,Trouppe
36-40 Doyle,F.Jones,Griffith,Easter,Poles
41-45 W.Cooper,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen,Stephens
46-50 Bond,Schang,Rizzuto,A.Cooper,Van Haltren
   21. Sean Gilman Posted: March 02, 2006 at 01:10 AM (#1880402)

1. Warren Spahn (-)--He’s really good.

2. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares (plus a little war credit). According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

6. Clark Griffith (6)--About as close to Coveleski as can be. The most balanced pitcher on the ballot in terms of peak and career, probably why no one talks about him anymore. (1942)

7. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

9. Cool Papa Bell (10)--Lots of career value, and the translations likely underrate his peak.(1960)

10. Hugh Duffy (11)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

11. George Van Haltren (12)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

12. Carl Mays (13)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

13. Biz Mackey (14)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

14. Willard Brown (15)--The most anonymous player on my ballot.

15. Joe Sewell (16)--From almost elected to nearly forgotten, but he'll probably get in eventually.

16. Edd Roush (17)
17. Minnie Minoso (19)
18. Alejandro Oms (18)
19. Ralph Kiner (20)
20. Nellie Fox (-)
21. Quincy Trouppe (21)
22. Jose Mendez (22)
23. Vern Stephens (23)
24. Roger Bresnahan (24)
25. Bob Elliott (25)
26. Ed Williamson (26)
27. Bobby Doerr (27)
28. Dave Bancroft (28)
29. Wally Berger (29)
30. Bucky Walters (30)
   22. Howie Menckel Posted: March 02, 2006 at 01:13 AM (#1880406)
1971 ballot, our 74th

Re HOF vote: I will be happy to reevaluate our picks if I get new stats on players like Mackey, Taylor, et al. Until I do, though, I ain't budging.

I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. WARREN SPAHN - Spahnie won 180 games after his 35th birthday, which ain't bad. Top 10 in Wins AND innings AND Complete Games every single year from 1947-63; in top 3 in Wins in 14 of those 17 years (and league leader in 8 of them). Top 3 in Innings every year from 1947-59. Led league in Complete Games every year from 1957-63, at age 36 through 42. Hey, I love ERA+, but if you don't see this guy as one of the greatest pitchers ever, might be time to rethink your criteria, he says respectfully.
2. JAKE BECKLEY - It'll be his time soon, but I've seen for a while now that a lot of our voters will never ever vote for him.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
Long, long career of "quite good" is almost unique. His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better. Rivals came and went; it's only he who lasted. Some parallels to Rixey.

3. DICK REDDING - I'd like to add he and Bell to round out my own personal Negro League contingent, pending further analysis. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted, deserves much credit for that. I agree that this is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way.
4. COOL PAPA BELL - I enjoy the color-blindness of our evaluations, and this is the ultimate case. Continues a steady climb on my ballot, and this is while conceding that park and steals led him to be a bit overrated. But discounting the myth a bit doesn't mean ignoring a very long and productive career.
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - Stays near the top after a brief detour toward the bottom of my ballot two years ago. Is everyone considering 1892-93 credit for him? If not, that may be all it takes for more votes. I don't believe the amazing W-L is a fluke; pitching conditions were a ton different then, and he was focused on Ws in a non-HR era. Lack of innings a problem, I admit, but he stands out over most contemporaries for the body of work.
6. BILLY PIERCE - Moves up 2 spots. Some interesting comparisons with Griffith, but a little less effective, played in a weaker league vs a strong one-league, etc. I think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio coming soon).
7. JOE GORDON - Continues to move up my ballot, this year leapfrogs Kiner. Candidacies of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison.
8. RALPH KINER - Just a tad better than HOMer Medwick; I like mashers like this, and there's a little war credit. Is getting underrated by the electorate, but gets strong consideration from me.
9. GEORGE SISLER - Hanging in there. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
10. CUPID CHILDS - A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. I discount the heck out of the silly 1890 AA season, but still find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.
11. GAVVY CRAVATH - Continues to have a presence on the Howie ballot for the past decade, after 20+ years of resistance. The key is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. And his work in his 30s is just outstanding. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
12. BOBBY DOERR - Like Gordon, deserving of our strong consideration. I was tempted to move him ahead of Gordon, but I have a problem with a guy having a monster year in 1944, of all years. Weird how both might have skated in if only they played a couple more modest seasons instead of just disappearing.
13. BOB ELLIOTT - Probably better than HOMer Hack, has returned to my ballot in recent years. Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
14. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed on my radar 5 years ago and onto my ballot 4 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, and other borderline HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. Just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
15. MICKEY WELCH - Once again jumps back onto my ballot this year. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.

PETE BROWNING - Tough one for Pete, who was mid-ballot for me only a few years ago. He's slipped just behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 2 yrs ago, still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Better pick than Mackey.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Slips from 15 2 yrs ago. I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15. Don't think he's a HOMer, but tough to find 15 better.

NELLIE FOX - I looked at Bid McPhee, on whom we had some hesitancy. McPhee 106 OPS+ in 9409 PA. Fox 94 OPS+ in 10349 PA.
Fox had 2500 fairly worthless ABs at the end of his career. That makes his OPS+ competitive, but then he isn't a 'long career' guy, which he needs to be. Not completely dismissing him, but at this point I don't quite see it.

WILLARD BROWN - Horrible OBP and played in a weak league, I still say, take that HOF! I even blaspheme by taking the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes for his late-career MLB flop with a grain of salt, frankly.
BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in the HOM, too, in a few years, without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth in his era? Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.
   23. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 02, 2006 at 02:12 AM (#1880498)
Major overhauling of my ballot. Some people here will be happy, while others will be cursing me under their breaths. Others will be indifferent. :-)

I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Warren Spahn-P (n/e): No-brainer, no-brainer, and no-brainer. Best ML pitcher for 1947 and 1964. Best NL pitcher for 1957 and 1958

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (6): <6>Best second baseman of the '90s.</b> Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.          

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

4) Joe Gordon-2B (10): Best second baseman of the 1940's; major oversight on my part. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

5) Alejandro Oms-CF (4): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

6) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (5): Eric's new MLEs may give Brown that extra-added push. His HOF induction probably wont hurt, either.

7) Tony Mullane-P/OF (n/e): I'm officially the greatest FOTM now. :-) His unusual career is hard to evaluate, but I now think he's worthy. I also give him credit for the time he missed during the mid-1880s.

8) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

9) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (13): Why Kell, but not Elliott? Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

10) Pie Traynor-3B (n/e): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

11) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (3): Not as high as '70, but still at a respectable position. Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

12) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

13) Bobby Doerr-2B (n/e): As I goofed with Gordon for a while, I also goofed with Doerr. Best AL second baseman in 1946 and 1949. Best major league second baseman for 1948

14) Mickey Welch-P (11): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (n/e): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Mackey, Sisler, Griffith, Van Haltren, Redding, and Bell all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.
   24. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 02, 2006 at 02:30 AM (#1880528)
This Andrew Siegel's ballot:

Our second child is due any day now, so, if I am MIA on the ballot thread, please copy this one over:

(1) Warren Spahn (new)-Duh.

(2) Dobie Moore (2nd)--I started this project as a peak voter and quickly realized that there were just too many guys who were astounding for a year or two to make that a viable strategy. Since then, I have really focused in on a combination of career on the one hand and value over a roughly seven-year period on the other hand. On a seven (or six or eight or nine) year measure, Moore is the best player we have ignored.

(3) Oms (3rd)--The objective numbers back up the subjective comments--Sam Crawford with good but not remarkable longevity is probably the best comparison.

(4) Van Haltren (4th)--My position on him remains consistent: the small plusses add up. There are many position players who are quite similar to him in the next 20 spaces and he has a small but signficiant plus factor on each. Another words, he is one notch above borderline.

(5) Roush (6th)--Missed a lot of games due to injuries and holdouts or he would have had career stats that make him a low-interest no-brainer like Clarke, Wheat, or Goslin. Still, was a consistent top 10 (usually top 5) OPS+ guy who was also a solid CF. 135-140 games of that is awfully valuable.

(6) Beckley (7th)--If you do a major era adjustment, he's Palmiero without the steroid issue. If your adjustment is more minor, he's Gil Hodges, Steve Garvey, or Keith Hernandez with a record-long career. Either way, he's a bottom-quarter HoMer.

(7) Duffy (8th)--I need to do a study of why his offesnive WS are so high throughout the early 1890s. Until I do that, I will split the difference between WS assessment of his offensive ability and other metrics. When I do the study, he may move to the top of the ballot or off ballot.

(8) Childs (9th)--Now come the solid 2B with the bats of good OF's. They are both underrated.

(9) Gordon (10th)--Like I just said.

(10) Mendez (12th)--Looks an awful lot like the Lemons, Coveleskis, and Vances of the world.

(11) Trouppe (11th)--I wish our info on him was better, but my consistent policy has been to evaluate the excluded players as best as I can and then vote that evaluation without a deduction for their larger confidence interval. Similar to Frank Grant in that there is a chance he wasn't one of the top 1000 players of All-Time but that there is a better chance that he was one of the top 200.

(12) Sisler (13th)--Had Charlie Keller's career, then another one that was of some small but genuine value. Might be a bit overrated here but the bunching is extraordinary.

(13) Minoso (off)--On further review, he looks at least as good as Medwick who would rank here.

(14) Elliot (15th)--Elliot, Doerr, and Sewall are essentially tied on my ballot, but I'm letting position scarcity break the tie.

(15) Willard Brown (off)--Moves up with the new data saying he would take a walk if it was waved in hi face.

See above for why I don't like Fox and previous ballots for the other perennials. On further review, Pierce is more like number 19 than number 14.
   25. Thane of Bagarth Posted: March 02, 2006 at 02:57 AM (#1880561)
1971 Ballot

1) Warren Spahn
Ranks sixth on my all-time pitcher list (through this election). He’s a sliver behind Lefty Grove.

2) Ben Taylor
Happy to see he’ll be in at least one Hall. He's been in the top 5 on my ballot since 1958. I see him as equal to, or slightly better than, Suttles among NeL 1stbasemen.

3) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares and WARP1. His 3 year and 5 year peaks in WS are almost identical to Ashburn’s, though WARP3 gives the 5 year edge to Ashburn (46.7 to 39.0).

4) Bobby Doerr
Best of the middle infielder heap. Great defense and 115 OPS+.

5) Cool Papa Bell
May not have been as great as all the stories make him out to be, but he was still an amazing talent. He moves up a few spots this election because I think I had been underestimating his longevity.

6) Dick Redding
7) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

8) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and a OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

9) Willard Brown
I consider the Andre Dawson comparison to be rather complimentary, as Dawson was a classic “5-tool” player, at least early on in his career. As much as his lack of walks seem to confound analysis of Brown’s career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

10) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the 130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

11) Minnie Minoso
I upped his pre-MLB credit ever so slightly and he jumps from #22 to #11--they’re tightly packed around this part of the ballot.

12) Pete Browning
The WARP1-WARP2 (timeline, league strength, etc.) adjustment hits Browning pretty hard, but he was an offensive powerhouse and his numbers still justify a spot on the bottom third of the ballot.

13) Dizzy Trout
Similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peak (~48) to that of Walters, but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

14) Spotswood Poles
15) Alejandro Oms—Like Mendez and Ruffing, Poles and Oms are hard to separate.

Rest of the Top 50
16) Joe Gordon--Oh so close to making the ballot this year. Not terribly far behind Doerr.
17) Bill Monroe
18) Jimmy Ryan
19) Charlie Keller
20) Dick Lundy
21) Ralph Kiner
22) Billy Pierce
23) Dobie Moore
24) Dom DiMaggio
25) Burleigh Grimes
26) Tommy Leach
27) Gavy Cravath
28) Ray Dandridge
29) Harry Hooper
30) Bob Johnson
31) Edd Roush
32) Bob Elliott
33) Bobby Veach
34) Joe Sewell
35) George Sisler--Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
36) Phil Rizzuto
37) Biz Mackey--I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
38) Rabbit Maranville
39) Sam Rice
40) Carl Mays
41) Cy Seymour
42) Wally Berger
43) Hugh Duffy
44) Jake Beckley
45) Clark Griffith--A worthy candidate, but I see several other pitchers ahead of him.
46) Lon Warneke
47) George Burns
48) Roy Thomas
49) Kiki Cuyler
50) Lefty O’Doul

New Eligibles
57) Nellie Fox—His numbers are relatively close to Doerr and Gordon, but he falls short in both peak and career value.

Roy Sievers, Frank Lary, and Harvey Haddix would all fall into the 100-150 range (and in that order) somewhere if I took the time to make a list that long.
   26. AJMcCringleberry Posted: March 02, 2006 at 04:29 AM (#1880656)
1. Warren Spahn - Yeah.

2. Bobby Doerr - Great defensive second baseman who could hit.

3. George Van Haltren - Good hitter, good defender, long career.

4. Jose Mendez - Not a long career, but an outstanding peak.

5. Bob Johnson - Great hitter who moves up this high with minor league credit.

6. Willard Brown - Great hitter who played centerfield and shortstop for half his career.

7. Minnie Minoso - Like Johnson gets this high due to minor league credit, wasn't as good a hitter as Indian Bob.

8. Fielder Jones - Great centerfield, great OBP.

9. Bucky Walters - Similar to Mendez, but peak wasn't as good.

10. Joe Sewell - Great shortstop, good hitter. Done at age 34.

11. George Sisler - Very good peak. Could have been great w/o injury.

12. Jimmy Ryan - Similar value to Sisler, but not as big a peak.

13. Bob Elliot - Good defender, very good hitter.

14. Ralph Kiner - Short career, but 7 home run titles and a 149 OPS+.

15. Gavvy Cravath - Great hitter, fantastic peak, not much D.

16. Wally Berger
17. Clark Griffith - Not that many innings for his era.
18. Cool Papa Bell - Long career, but no peak.
19. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter.
20. Edd Roush

24. Joe Gordon - Career wasn't long enough to be higher.

Cannonball Dick Redding - Other than his 3 year peak he doesn't impress me too much.
Biz Mackey - Not a great hitter and no peak, I have Trouppe rated higher.
   27. Howie Menckel Posted: March 02, 2006 at 12:45 PM (#1880781)
I'm not a Mackey fan, but I wonder about the "lack of peak" rationale cited on several ballots.
Aren't most of our MLEs admittedly somewhat flattened in peak terms? I'm not sure that's the reason to keep him out.
   28. Al Peterson Posted: March 02, 2006 at 02:12 PM (#1880820)
1971 ballot. Spahn and his amazing left arm go in this year. Who else?

1. Warren Spahn (-). Most similar player through age 35: Jack Chesbro. Happy Jack has his touch with immortality.

2. Clark Griffith (2). Best left over from the 60’6” transitional period of pitching. Was a winner, good auxiliary stats to go with it.

3. Dick Redding (3). CANNONBALL!!! Pitched in multiple leagues, each time having success. He’s the NeL pitcher I think we’re missing.

4. Bobby Doerr (4). Yes, above Gordon. But the gap is less than the difference in ballot positions seems to indicate. Does well in the non-Win Share metrics.

5. Edd Roush (5). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

6. Bob Johnson (6). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

7. Jimmy Ryan (7). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

8. Rube Waddell (8). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

9. Tommy Leach (19). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little.

10. Biz Mackey (10). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

11. Hugh Duffy (12). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

12. Cool Papa Bell (13). Speed game particularly suited for the Negro Leagues. Maybe not the immortal we wanted him to be but still a darn fine centerfielder.

13. Frank Chance (9). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. Had some speed for his day as well.

14. Billy Pierce (14). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

15. Dobie Moore (15). Seems like slot #15 is the one I swap people in and out of. Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years.

16-20: Oms, Minoso, Mullane, Sewell, Mendez
21-25: Childs, Van Haltren, F Jones, Browing, Berger
26-30: Poles, Bridges, Sisler, Easter, Kiner
31-35: Bryd, Gordon, Willard Brown, Keller, Lundy
36-40: Shocker, Stephens, Veach, Ben Taylor, Trout
41-45: Elliot, McGraw, Doyle, Joss, Roy Thomas
46-50: Trouppe, Willis, Cicotte, Beckley, Cuyler

Top Returnees: Let’s see: Sisler (#28), Van Haltren (#22), Willard Brown (#33), Gordon (#32). They are all top 35 so I’m not the enemy of any of them. All have players above them at their position that I would elect first.

New guys: Fox, I’m trying to see it but not buying into a ballot spot for him. I’ll have to reread some of the material on RCAA/RCAR and the moving around of some WARP measurements. Still hardly a slam dunk.
   29. andrew siegel Posted: March 02, 2006 at 03:01 PM (#1880855)
I'm still waiting on an overdue baby boy, so I've been working on a major overhaul to my system. I think I have finally figured out how to balance 7-year-prime and career in a relatively objective way. The ballot that John posted for me will do for this week, but next week's numbers should be very different. FWIW, the two big gainers look to be Minnie Minoso and Tommy Leach.
   30. Mark Donelson Posted: March 02, 2006 at 04:05 PM (#1880918)
I'm not a Mackey fan, but I wonder about the "lack of peak" rationale cited on several ballots.
Aren't most of our MLEs admittedly somewhat flattened in peak terms? I'm not sure that's the reason to keep him out.

That's true, but if you adjust for that, unless you get really extreme, the peak still isn't overwhelming, and the years beyond his, say, 2-year peak become incredibly anemic. That's too short even for me.

And I don't think I buy that the flattening effect is especially extreme--or, at least, I feel that if it isextreme, there's no way to be sure about how to counter-adjust. (To take one example, if Willard Brown's WS estimates get bumped up significantly for his peak years, he starts looking like Duke Snider, at least. Maybe he was that good, but the ground there isn't firm.)

So I make very small tweaks to all my NeL numbers to reflect a sort of general flattening in the MLEs and leave it at that. When I'm done, Mackey's peak is better, but it still isn't so hot.
   31. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 03, 2006 at 01:39 AM (#1881679)
There is some movement this week but most of it is off ballot, so my ballot will not look very different from any other week.

Spahn and Walters make my PHOM

1. Warren Spahn (x, PHOM) - Not much to add, probalby the second best left handed pitcher of all-time behind Lefty Grove.

2. Cupid Childs (2, PHOM) - This is about as large of a gap between #'s 1 and 2 that I have had on my ballot. Still, I believe that Childs is eminently qualified. He had a very nice peak and a long career for his era and position.

3. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) - Best of the 1890's CF trio due to his bigger peak. Much longer career than the other ofers on my ballot liek Keller, Kiner, and Browning.

4. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) - He was screwed this week, I can't even imagine how one could think that He wasnt' better than Andy Cooper. 2nd best dead ball NeL pitcher behind only Smokey Joe and that ain't bad.

5. Charlie Keller (5, PHOM) - Monster peak and he gest some war credit. I have him iwth five MVP caliber seasons and a few shoulder seasons to boot.

6. Dobie Moore (6, PHOM) - The Black Hughie Jennings, which is quite a compromise coming from me. It is close between He and Keller for who had the best peak on the ballot.

7. Ralph Kiner (7, PHOM) - 7 consecutive HR titles and he know how to take a walk. His peak would be higher if he could field, but alas he is below both Moore and Keller on my ballot.

8. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) - I have passed him over a few times but he is finally in my PHOM. He pitched against superior teams, could hit well for a pitcher, and was a true ace at his peak.

9. Clark Griffith (9) - Next in my PHOM backlog (Bill Terry is after him) so he will get in eventually. I guess the real race is whether or not the HOM will enshirne him before I do. 4th best pitcer of the 1890's.

10. Pete Browning (13) - As I mived both Gordon and Doerr down a little bit, Pete Browning was the beneficiary as he moves up three slots. The only thing keeping him from being in Kell.Kiner territory are the doubts that I have about the quality of play in the AA).

11. Joe Gordon (10)
12. Bobby Doerr (12) - These two are nearly indistinguishable when total value is taken into consideration. I have decided to move them down a notch (they would have been 10 and 11) as I have realized that there really isn't much difference between them and a number of other MIers. However, they only move down this much as i really can't put anyone below them above them, everyone is packed in so tight.

13. Quincey Trouppe (14) - Best catcher onthe board due to his superior peak WHILE CATCHING.

14. George Van Haltren (15) - He has been between 10 and 20 for me every single election since 1935. He had a long career, a very good prime,a nd a better peak than most give him credit for. He is the player most think that Jake Beckley was.

15. Dizzy Dean (16) - I think this is all you need to know about how much I will like Sandy Koufax. If Dean, who had a lower peak and just as long a career, is on my ballot, Koufax will be high. I would probably have Dean higher but he couldn't hit or field his position. I feel he was a better pitcher than Bucky Walters.

16-20 Sisler, Rosen, Oms, Brown, Waddell
21-25 Bresnahan, Berger, Mendez, Cravath, Minoso
26-30 Fox, Willis, Pierce, Newcombe, Mackey
31-35 Roush, Bell, Lundy, Rizzuto, Monroe
36-40 Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker, Johnson
41-45 Leach, Thomas, McGraw, Stephens, Wilson
46-50 Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Burns, Easter

26. Nellie Fox - I thought that he would be a stronger ballot contender, but WARP doesn't like him and I thought that I might be overrating 2B a little, especially in comparison to SS's like Rizzuto and Sewell. Still, he would not be a bad selection and might one day make my ballot.

Required Disclosures
Mackey (30) - I don't see any evidence that he was ever an elite player
Bell (32) - Ditto
Beckley (NR) - Double Ditto
George Sisler (16) - He is right at the edge of my ballot. He has been as high as #8 but I have decided that his peak was not historic enough to overcome the fact that he was only an ordinary players after 1922. He may make my PHOM, however.
   32. Brent Posted: March 03, 2006 at 04:26 AM (#1881947)
I'm not a Mackey fan, but I wonder about the "lack of peak" rationale cited on several ballots.
Aren't most of our MLEs admittedly somewhat flattened in peak terms? I'm not sure that's the reason to keep him out.

Voters using the NeL MLEs should be aware that they are not designed to produce measures of peaks (in the form, for example, of "best season" or "best 3 non-consecutive seasons") that are comparable to those of major league players. Indeed, it is probably impossible to design a translation that could come up with valid measures of peak performance. The reason is that the translations start with data from NeL seasons that are usually much shorter than ML seasons (sometimes as few as 30 to 40 games). So if the data are translated directly without any adjustment, the year-to-year variation is too large. It's the same phenomenon we see every season when some career .260 hitter starts out hitting .350 through the middle of May; we all know that that isn't his true ability level, and by September he's usually back to .280 or something. A sample of 30 or 40 games is just not large enough to get a valid measure of performance.

To deal with this problem, our two MLE experts have used different strategies. Chris Cobb uses a statistical technique called regression to smooth out the year-to-year variation. His MLEs tend to be lacking in a peak, but I think he would tell you that they are not designed to measure a peak. Instead, you should like at average performance over 5-year or 7-year intervals to get an accurate sense of the shape of a player's career. Chris did the MLEs for Mackey and several other NeL stars who are sometimes described as being without a peak.

Dr. Chaleeko, on the other hand, doesn't use regression (at least as far as I'm aware). Instead, he has generally expanded his sample size by including winter league play, which sometimes gives him a sample nearly as large as a full MLB season and helps avoid the volatility problem. This works reasonably well except for seasons when a player had a short season and didn't play winter ball. You should be aware that Dr. C's MLEs tend to be more volatile, and therefore exhibit higher peaks, than Chris's. (I believe that for Willard Brown, both experts ran MLEs, allowing us to contrast the two approaches.)

For pitchers, neither Chris nor Dr. C uses regression, so pitcher MLEs tend to be much more volatile year-to-year than actual MLB pitchers. (On one of the threads, I suggested using a moving average to smooth out some of the volatility in the pitcher translations.)

But the bottom line is that none of the translations can provide accurate measures that are strictly comparable to the "3 best non-consecutive seasons" measure that you might use for MLB players. Therefore, I recommend that you modify your evaluation systems for NeL players to emphasize measures for which the MLEs tend to be more accurate, such as performance during 5 (or 7) consecutive seasons.

(Obviously Chris or Dr. C are welcome to comment if I've misinterpreted their work.)
   33. Mark Donelson Posted: March 03, 2006 at 03:35 PM (#1882326)
Therefore, I recommend that you modify your evaluation systems for NeL players to emphasize measures for which the MLEs tend to be more accurate, such as performance during 5 (or 7) consecutive seasons.

Yes, this is more or less how I make the tweaks to NeL MLEs that I mentioned above, using more or less these measures and shifting some WS over.
   34. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 03, 2006 at 04:36 PM (#1882396)
I understand what you are saying here Brent, however I use a WS over a number (usually 25, 20 for catchers) as my main peak measure which mitigates this somewhat, especially for those like Oms and Brown who have long, productive primes. My guess is that if we are to shift WS over to peak they have to come from somewhere. It is also my belief that career WS are inflated somewhat in the translations.

Still, Bix Mackey's peak numbers aren't really in the Brown/Oms mold where maybe their primes would be a year or two shorter but include a few more MVP level seasons. I see nothing in Mackey's record to indicate that he was ever a dominant player, same with C.P. Bell. And it isn't like we dont' have an NeL catcher is a nice peak (even after position adjusting his time at 3B) in Quincey Trouppe.
   35. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 03, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#1882434)
I don't deal much with the pitchers, in fact, I've stopped with them altogether because Chris does a better job. So I can't speak much to them. I do have a question for Chris C., however, based on SoG.

It appears that NgL pitchers surrendered an unusual number of unearned runs for their times. Of the RA by the 7 HOF Ngl pitchers (those elected before this year), a full third of them were unearned. Compare to the NL: in 1920, NL pitchers' runs were about 79% earned; 80% in 1930; 85% by 1945.

The high levels of NGL UER could be a scoring issue, or perhaps a playing conditions issue. Is this something that our MLEs address already (either directly or indirectly)? Or is it something that they even need to address?
   36. sunnyday2 Posted: March 03, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#1882586)
Doc, in any "weak" league (even if the right conversion factor is .9 or .95, the relatively weaker league) probably has some players who are just as good as in the stronger league. What it has, however, is more replacement level players out there. And replacement level fielders make more errors, even behind great pitchers. That's the difference, I would bet.

Similarly the Newark Eagles (placeholder) or KC Monarchs (better placeholder?) probably have #3-4-5 hitters who could terrorize the MLs. Their 7-8-9. however, probably go down a little easier.
   37. Chris Cobb Posted: March 03, 2006 at 07:12 PM (#1882688)
The high levels of NGL UER could be a scoring issue, or perhaps a playing conditions issue. Is this something that our MLEs address already (either directly or indirectly)? Or is it something that they even need to address?

Since the pitcher MLEs are win-based rather than ERA/RA based, the system I have used for MLEs doesn't need to address it. However, in calculating individual pitcher MLEs, I have taken into account evidence from data or reputation that some teams were particularly good in the field. When I did Bill Foster's MLEs, for example, I generally posited that he was receiving substantially above average fielding support, because of his half-brother's mania for pitching and defense. This move on my part is justified, I think, by the RA/ERA numbers from _Out of the Shadows_, which show a smaller difference between RA and ERA for Foster than for any of the other HoF pitchers.

If and when more comprehensive and reliable RA and ERA data for individual pitchers, teams, and league-seasons becomes available, a _much_ more exact analysis of pitchers' value will become possible. I think we've been pretty careful and conservative with NeL pitchers, so I doubt that the new data will show any of our NeL pitcher picks so far as big mistakes. But I think we'll have a much more exact view of how good our inductees are, and it's possible that a few other pitchers will be brought onto the radar.
   38. Dolf Lucky Posted: March 03, 2006 at 08:49 PM (#1882832)
1 (-)Warren Spahn--By far the best career on the ballot. Best score in my system for a pitcher since Lefty Grove.

2 (2)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

3 (5)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

4 (3)Bucky WaltersClearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

5 (4)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

6 (8)Ralph Kiner--7 straight years leading the league in homers. Obviously, the career length leaves something to be desired, but Kiner was very dominant for a considerable period.

7 (10)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

8 (7)Bobby Doerr--Presents a relatively clean comparison to Boudreau: Lower OPS+, weaker glove, less important position. Do 1000 extra plate appearance make up for that? Not in this case.

9 (9)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

10 (12)Vern Stephens--Yes, his counting numbers were helped by the ballpark, and his teammates, but a shortstop with a career 120 OPS+ over 14 seasons is rare enough to merit ballot consideration.

11 (13)Rube Waddell--10 straight years being in the top 5 in strikeouts. 7 straight years leading the league in K/9. Career ERA+ of 134. Dominant.

12 (11)Billy Pierce--Is in the same career WARP ballpark as Bob Lemon, albeit with considerably less peak.

13 (-)George Sisler--An old favorite of mine. With more pitchers getting elected recently, it's easier to put his name back on the ballot.

14 (14)Burleigh Grimes--I like the peak/career combo, and he keeps popping back up as a name to include towards the bottom of the ballot.

15 (15)Joe Gordon--Another career gutted by the war. War truly is hell.

16 Dom Dimaggio
17 Johnny Sain
18 Nellie Fox
19 Urban Shocker
20 Eddie Cicotte

Top 10 omissions: Mackey, Redding and Bell were all deemed lacking at time of eligibility and have been passed by later day players. Van Haltren and Griffith are in the consideration set but are mired in positional gluts.
   39. Jim Sp Posted: March 03, 2006 at 10:51 PM (#1882974)
Sievers not close.

Why do I rate the 2B so much higher than the rest of the group? Once the 2B has to turn two, I think replacement level at 2B pretty low, and durability is a lot lower also. Consider these players, they had long careers (therefore way above replacement level) without offering much. The guys on my ballot are better hitters, “A” fielders, and have longer careers (including war credit).

Don Blasingame, 79 OPS+, B- win shares fielder, 1444 games played
Julian Javier, 78 OPS+, B-, 1622
Bobby Richardson, 77 OPS+, C+, 1412

1)Spahn--ERA+ not as good as I expected, but still he’s an easy choice. Gets some war credit too.
2)Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one.
3)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
4)Doerr-- PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
7)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
10)Cool Papa Bell--If Max Carey is in, Cool Papa should be too. PHoM in 1966.
11)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. In case you’re wondering, the modern (retired) 2Bs that I’m planning to take are Morgan, Grich, Alomar, Whitaker, Sandberg, Randolph, and Fox. The modern SSs would be Ripken, Larkin, Trammell, Ozzie, and Concepcion. I’ll have to think about Tony Fernandez and Fregosi . (Yount, Banks, Rose, Carew, etc. I count as multiposition).
12)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right.
13)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
14)Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs.
15)Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit
16)Rizzuto--Lots of war credit.
17)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
18)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.
19)Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. I see 15 obvious catching electees: Gibson, Bench, Fisk, Carter, Hartnett, Dickey, Piazza, Berra, Simmons, Ewing, Cochrane, Campanella, Parrish, Rodriguez, Santop. I’m an advocate for what I see as the next tier: Freehan, Munson, and Porter will get strong consideration on my ballot too. You can’t have a baseball team without a catcher. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL.
   40. jimd Posted: March 04, 2006 at 12:25 AM (#1883049)
Ballot for 1971

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Almost done revising my system. Maybe next year.

1) W. SPAHN -- !

2) B. DOERR -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Doerr belongs.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close.

5) J. GORDON -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Gordon belongs also.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

7) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

8) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

10) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters?

11) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all (except Spahn).

12) B. MACKEY -- New HOFer will also make the HOM this year (maybe).

13) C. GRIFFITH -- His time will come soon.

14) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy.

15) D. TROUT -- Made it onto the ballot.

16) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

17) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

18) W. BROWN -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

19) C. P. BELL -- Hanging around.

20) J. BECKLEY -- He's almost ballot-worthy too.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Dizzy Dean, Bill Hutchison,
23-24) Joe Tinker, Dick Redding,
25-26) Hugh Duffy, Bob Johnson,
27-28) Dobie Moore, Wally Schang,
29-30) Ralph Kiner, Tommy Leach,
31-32) Harry Hooper, Nellie Fox,
   41. OCF Posted: March 04, 2006 at 12:52 AM (#1883076)
Don Blasingame, 79 OPS+, B- win shares fielder, 1444 games played
Julian Javier, 78 OPS+, B-, 1622
Bobby Richardson, 77 OPS+, C+, 1412

Jim Gantner, 88 OPS+, 1801 games (1449 at 2B)
Manny Trillo 81 OPS+, 1780 games (1518 at 2B)

Hey, even Billy Ripken got over 900 games played.
   42. dan b Posted: March 04, 2006 at 01:40 AM (#1883114)
2.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. The following are at or above the median:
3 year peak (non-consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Keller
5 year peak (consecutive) – Kiner, Rosen, Duffy, Berger, Keller
8 year peak (non-consecutive) – Duffy, Keller
10 year peak (consecutive) – Duffy, Burns
WS/162 – Keller, Chance, Berger, Rosen, Duffy, McGraw
Career – None
3.Griffith PHoM 1913. If we are going to be fair to all eras, then the 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in. 1890’s still underrepresented.
4.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
5.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. IMO, Koufax is a no-brainer. When comparing all the eligible high peak pitchers on this ballot to Sandy’s overpowering dominance from 1961-1966, Rube’s performance from 1902-1908 comes closest.
6.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
7.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Best WS/162 among 20th century players on this ballot. See Duffy comment above.
8.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
10.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
11.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
12.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
13.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush forgotten; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! :(
14.Minoso Will make PHoM before Ashburn
15.Fox Need a 2B to bridge the Jackie to Joe gap
16.Bell PHoM 1968.
17.Brown, Willard
18.Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942. HoF just admitted the wrong Cooper.
19. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
20.C. Mays
137. Beckley
   43. Brent Posted: March 04, 2006 at 07:21 PM (#1883607)
1971 Ballot:

I’ve made some significant revisions to my ballot for this election. The debate over Miñoso’s MLEs has convinced me that Gadfly’s position is at least partly right—the adjustment factors being applied to NeL records are understating NeL performance. In Miñoso’s case, the MLEs imply that there was a large gap between his pre-MLB batting and his MLB performance (though the latest versions have narrowed the gap somewhat). However, Miñoso was also playing baseball in Cuba throughout both periods, and his Cuban record showed only the smaller improvement that is typical of most player’s development during their 20s (see Gadfly’s post # 102 on the Minnie Minoso thread). The implication, it seems to me, is that the adjustments for NeL quality are too low and should be 3 or 4 percentage points higher.

Ironically, this adjustment to my system causes Miñoso to slide down my rankings a couple of spots, since it had a larger effect on the evaluation of the career NeLers. Willard Brown makes the biggest upward climb; he and Spahn are my personal hall of merit inductees this year.

1. Warren Spahn – Greatest pitcher since Lefty Grove. Over 15 seasons (1947, 49-59, 61-63) he averaged 20-13, 3.1 wins above team, 280 IP, 126 DERA+, 47 OPS+. CYA for 1957 (when it covered both leagues) and 3-time runner up; in MVP voting made 4 appearances in the top 5. (PHoM 1971)

2. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley. (PHoM 1971)

3. Cool Papa Bell – With legendary speed, he hit for average and with mid-range power and was an excellent center fielder; he was a key contributor to three of the greatest teams in the history of black baseball. (PHoM 1968)

4. Orestes Miñoso – Meets the “highest common denominator” standard—all the eligible corner outfielders with comparable records (Keeler, Wheat, Goslin, Slaughter) have been elected to the HoM, usually with overwhelming support. Miñoso was a fine, consistent player—he hit for average and with power, ran with speed, and won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

5. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley.

6. Clark Griffith – Over 8 seasons (1894-1901) he averaged 22-13, 5.5 wins above team, 304 IP, 124 DERA+. (PHoM 1960)

7. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

8. Phil Rizzuto – At least as good a hitter and more valuable with the glove than Nellie Fox over a career that, absent the war, would have lasted almost as long. According to win shares, the third best defensive shortstop among HoM-eligible shortstops with at least 10,000 innings. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

9. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

10. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA+ (PHoM 1966)

11. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

12. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

13. Dick Redding – The Cuban League data imply that Méndez had a better peak, but Redding had more career value.

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

15. Gavy Cravath – While I was re-evaluating NeL candidates, I also decided Cravath deserved more minor league credit than I had been giving. From ages 32-36 his OPS+ was 172-160-171-147-153.

Near misses:

16. Burleigh Grimes (PHoM 1940)
17. Nellie Fox – I love the defense and had hoped there would be room for him on my ballot. However, there are 16 eligible players who I think were better.
18. Dobie Moore
19. Charlie Keller
20. Tommie Leach (PHoM 1932)
21. Don Newcombe
22. Roger Bresnahan
23. Buzz Arlett
24 Luke Easter
25. Joe Gordon – Good offensive and defensive player; IMO behind Fox, but clearly better than Doerr.

Other consensus top 10:

38. Bobby Doerr – I can't see placing him ahead of Fox or Gordon.

39. George Van Haltren – A good player, but his fielding WS rates are low for a player who spent most of his career in CF. I don’t see that he was better than (for example) George Burns or Spottswood Poles.

54. George Sisler – Career value is hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime are not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Other new arrivals:

Roy Sievers didn’t make my top 100.
   44. favre Posted: March 05, 2006 at 11:58 AM (#1884077)
Some changes on the ballot this week.

1.Warren Spahn
2.Jake Beckley

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons in between where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. That is a long, productive prime.

However, for those who of you who just can’t stand Jake, here are some peak candidates to mollify you:

3.Rube Waddell

Eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Relatively low IP worry me more than the unearned runs.

4.George Sisler
5.Ralph Kiner
6.Gavvy Cravath

These guys make a huge move up my ballot. I had kept them low or off altogether because of their short careers, but now think I have been underestimating the value of their primes. Sisler edges Cravath and Kiner because of his defense and stolen bases (ranked 1 or 2 in the AL between 1917-1922). Cravath gets credit for a couple of PCL seasons.

7.Dobie Moore
8.Billy Pierce
9.Alejandro Oms

Moore does not quite have the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot four decades ago.

Pierce had five seasons with an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, with a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams that had very good defenses. I could be convinced I’m wrong.

I’ve had Oms in the top three for the past ten elections. I revamped my ballot, however, when I realized Chris’ projections for Oms (340 WS, 125 OPS/9056 PA) are ridiculously close to Van Haltren (344 WS, 122 OPS/8979 PA), who was off my ballot. Oms is better than Van Haltren: he has a better peak, even before allowing that Chris’s projections can suppress peak a little (Dr. C has him with a 133 OPS+). Still, I realized that either I had drop Oms some, or put Van Haltren on the ballot. For the moment, I’ve decided on the former.

Incidentally, 23 voters had Van Haltren on the ballot, while only 12 had Oms; if you voted for George, you should take another look at Alejandro.

10.Joe Gordon
11.Wally Schang

Gordon had a 120 career OPS+ while missing two prime years to the war; Doerr had a 115 OPS+ while playing during the war years; both were A defenders. This convinces me that Gordon should be ahead of Doerr.
Schang takes a drop on my ballot as well, due to issues with playing time and defense, but I still think he’s the best catcher available. Ten seasons with at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ over 120, with excellent on-base percentages.

12.Clark Griffith
13.Jose Mendez

Griffith made my pHoM in 1930, so I’m happy to see him on the verge of election. It must have been a nightmare to pitch in the 1890s: the mound was moved back, offensive numbers were soaring, the best hitters contracted into one league. Griffith was consistently very good through that time period, although I wish his IP were a little higher relative to his contemporaries.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba. Drops a bit on this ballot, but I’m very happy to see him in the other Hall.

14.Ned Williamson
15.Orestes Minoso

Williamson is still the best pure third baseman available almost eighty years after he retired: huge peak, great glove when it was more of a fielding position. His main challenger for that spot is Bob Elliott, but Williamson was a better defender, and had a higher peak. Minoso climbs onto the ballot this year. He had a long prime, with very good defense an on-base percentages.

16-20: Vic Willis, Tommy Leach, Bob Elliott, Tommy Bridges, Cupid Childs
21-25: George Van Haltren, Willard Brown, Larry Doyle, Dick Redding, Bob Johnson
26-30: Charley Jones, Burleigh Grimes, Bobby Doerr, Roger Bresnahan, Carl Mays

Biz Mackey: Long career with a couple of big years, but not a lot of what I would define as “prime” seasons. Quincy Trouppe may have been better.

Cool Papa Bell: The big loser in my ballot re-shuffle. He *may* have been a Jake Beckley type figure—not a real high peak, but a prime that lasts forever. I would love for someone smarter than me to look at his numbers again.

George Van Haltren: See the Oms comment. Did a lot of things well for a long time; I’m seriously rethinking him.

Bobby Doerr: OPS+ is five points below Gordon, even though he played during the war years. I think WARP has him wrong. As I reconsider second basemen, I’m coming to the conclusion that Childs, and maybe Doyle, were better.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more.
   45. Gadfly Posted: March 05, 2006 at 01:32 PM (#1884085)
1971 BALLOT (Gadfly)


My ballot relies on Win Shares and tries to weight peak and career equally, basically multiplying the total WS of the player's best 5 years by three and adding this number to the total career WS to arrive at a score that looks like an old-fashioned grading system (i.e. 900 and above: Grade A Hall of Fame or Merit player, 800-899: Grade B, etc.). The system favors peak slightly. Since peak wins pennants, peak value should be more important than career value.

However, the method adjusts for certain factors. Pitchers receive a gradually increasing position bonus from 1921. Catchers receive a straight 30 percent position bonus. Timeline related career interruptions (i.e. wars but not injuries) are credited. Also, there are various upgrades for other small things like the 1877-78 and 1892-1900 contractions and various downgrades for the early AA, 1884 UA, 1890 AA, 1914-15 FL.

And, as always, I believe that the conversion rates used in the Hall of Merit for Negro Leaguers and Minor Leaguers are inaccurate (see Cravath thread). These rates unfairly downgrade Negro League and Minor League performances. Basically, the conversions rates are a combination of the actual differences and inappropriate adjustment factors. This, of course, makes my list top heavy with Negro Leaguers and poor Gavy Cravath.


There are only two new candidates actually worthy of review, Warren Spahn and Nellie Fox. Just for fun, I looked at Roy Sievers too. Nellie Fox turned out to be nothing special, grading out as a C minus quality Hall of Famer [not that there’s anything wrong with that]. The backlog of grade C Hall of Fame candidates has gotten enormous. Sievers, although a completely different type of player, would probably have graded out just about exactly the same as Fox if he had not taken the George Foster career path to success.

On the other hand, Spahn grades out as a solid Grade A plus Hall of Famer after getting credit for time served in the Military. Interestingly, Spahn did not do as well in my system as I thought he would. In retrospect, it makes sense. My system rewards peak value over career value since peak will win you championships and career will just get you a long, also-ran, Jake Beckley type of career. Spahn has lots and lots of career but his peak is not particularly impressive.


1. Gavy Cravath (A+5)
He was the greatest slugger of his time, trapped in Minors for his prime, and would have hit well over 500 home runs in his career if it had only started in 1922, not 1902. A Proper evaluation of his Minor League numbers makes it clear that he was a Major League caliber player for 20 years with an astounding peak. Exactly the type of player the Hall of Merit was formed to honor.

2. Willard Brown (A+4)
The Brown thread has Willard's career petering out quickly after 1949. He was the best hitter in the Negro League from 1947 to 1951 and should have had a career lasting from 1936 to 1955 if the world had been colorblind. Another guy who would have easily passed 500 home runs in his career without wars and stupidity. His recent selection to the actual Hall of Fame was deserved and long overdue.

3. Warren Spahn (A+)
Without war credit, Spahn would have finished eighth. But, third or eighth, Spahn is a no doubt candidate for the Hall of Fame or Merit and a much better choice than the over-rated addition of last year, Early Wynn.

4. Luke Easter (A)
Basically Willie McCovey’s bigger stronger brother with his career hidden under layers of racial discrimination, World War II military service, injuries, and then age discrimination. Easter is the baseball equivalent of an iceberg. If Easter, Brown, and Cravath had all gotten to play their full careers out in the Majors, Luke Easter would have been the one most remembered. And it's not even close.

5. Dick Redding (A)
Redding would have won over 300 games in the Major Leagues with well over 200 of them coming from 1910 to 1920. A huge man (6 foot 3 or 4 and 210 to 230 pounds) Redding threw hard all the time. He has no real comparable white contemporary which, in and of itself, is an indication of his value.

6. Cool Papa Bell (A)
7. Alejandro Oms (A)
8. Tetelo Vargas (A-)
9. Biz Mackey (A-)
All very overqualified Negro Leaguers and badly underestimated by the conversion rates in use. The three outfielders (Bell, Oms, and Vargas) are all very similar with Oms having the best bat and Bell being the best defensive player. Although I think Richie Ashburn was a fine player, he cannot hold a candle to any of these three guys. Biz Mackey was the black Gabby Hartnett.

10. Charlie Jones(B+)
Jones was clearly a better hitter than Pete Browning or Ralph Kiner, who are both close comps. If he had only played ball from 1871-75, not been blacklisted for two years, and not changed his name, Benjamin Rippay would have been an easy Grade A Hall of Famer.

11. George Van Haltren (B+)
12. Rube Waddell (B)
13. Hugh Duffy (B)
Three more forgotten guys from the turn of the century. Van Haltren is directly comparable to and much better than Jake Beckley; Waddell was great and would have been much greater at virtually any other time in baseball history; and Hugh Duffy was the Kirby Puckett of the 1890s with a longer career.

14. Jose Mendez (B)
Mendez was, for seven years, one of the three or four greatest pitchers extent (with Johnson, Brown, and Mathewson). His career, as a pitcher and light-hitting shortstop lasted 20 years. Basically, he is the ‘Hughie Jennings’ of pitchers, huge peak value over a short time.

15. Quincy Trouppe (B)
Trouppe is basically a much bigger, much stronger, better version of Wally Schang and would have walked a 100 times a year in the Major Leagues while hitting for power and average.

16) Ben Taylor (B-)
17) Edd Roush (B-)
18) Minnie Minoso (B-)
19) Charlie Keller (C+)
20) Joe Gordon
21) Chet Brewer
22) Tony Mullane
23) Clark Griffith
24) Tommy Leach
25) Roger Bresnahan
26) Bill Wright
27) Pete Browning
28) Ralph Kiner
29) Burleigh Grimes
30) Bill Byrd
31) George J. Burns (C+)
32) Bucky Walters (C)
33) Dick Lundy
34) Wally Berger
35) Dobie Moore
36) George Sisler
37) Cupid Childs
38) Frank Chance
39) Larry Doyle
40) Dom DiMaggio
41) Bob Johnson
42) Neil Robinson
43) Wally Schang
44) Sam Rice
45) Jake Beckley
46) Dizzy Dean
47) Bobby Doerr
48) Tommy Henrich
49) Rabbit Maranville
50) Hack Wilson
   46. Michael Bass Posted: March 05, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#1884117)
1. Warren Spahn - I'd take him over any two players on this ballot combined. Peak may not be stupendous, but one of the best primes and careers that baseball has ever seen.
2. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
3. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in.
4. Bobby Doerr - His fielding is what pushes him over the edge...incredible with the leather, plenty good with the stick. Lots of prime, Sewell+.
5. Clark Griffith - Best player from the 1890s left, by a wide margin I'd say. Peak, prime and career, a little of each, I love him.
6. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
7. Bucky Walters - I am about alone on Bucky, but he has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
8. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
9. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B.
10. Minnie Minoso - Moves up quite a bit with the new MLEs. Are these new numbers a huge change in his case? Not really...but everyone at this point in the ballot is clumped together, and 2 more prime years does nothing but help.
11. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
12. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO.
13. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
14. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.
15. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.

16. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.
17. Biz Mackey - I think he had a great prime, between his solid hitting and amazing defense. His career essentially ends with his prime, which holds him down this low.
18. Billy Pierce - A little better (less peak, more prime) than Dizzy Trout. As compared to Walters, the peak really hurts him (and the prime is not much better; the career obviously is).

19. Fielder Jones
20. Dizzy Trout
21. Bob Elliot
22. Urban Shocker

23-25: Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms
26-30: Bond, Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock, Williamson
31-35: D. Dimaggio, Uhle, Grimes, Scales, Kiner
36-40: B. Taylor, Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton
41-45: Poles. Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays
46-50: Clift, Childs, Bartell, Klein, Cross

Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread? (Leaving this on my ballot till I get some more information, dammit! :D )

Mackey - #17. See above.

GVH - #28. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

Bell, Beckley - Off ballot. No peak, not even much prime. With Bell, I'm open to a reinterpretation of his numbers, but the numbers given right now don't do anything for me.
   47. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 05, 2006 at 06:36 PM (#1884181)

Just a thought. YOu mention that your system is based on WS and I interpret it to be one that is fairly rigid (meaning the numbers you come up with and the rankings you have are nearly identical) unlike, say, my unorganized, fly by the seat of my pants system. Anyway, my question here is do you think that you might be underrating pitchers in this system, especially post WWII pitchers who see a prety significant drop in their WS numbers? NOt that it matters for this election, but in the future it coudl matter for guys liek Fergie Jenkings and Don Sutton. Of course I could jsut be misinterpreting things as well.

On a lighter note...

'war and stupidity'...Aren't these two one and the same? :)
   48. Mike Webber Posted: March 05, 2006 at 10:36 PM (#1884449)
Win Shares voter, with peak bonus.

1) WARREN SPAHN – Hmm, among post-war lefties, is he first or second?
2) EDD ROUSH – Compared to Ashburn, more career value, better peak value. Those two are very close to me.
3) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
4) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot.
5) BOBBY DOERR – lacks outstanding peak, War credit/deductions are tricky with him.
6) CARL MAYS – I think his strong peak moves him ahead Griffith and Warneke, but just barely.
7) PIE TRAYNOR – I’d rank the Pirate third basemen this way, Leach, Traynor, Bonilla, Elliott, Hebner, Madlock, Hoak.
8)JOE GORDON 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
9) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore,I bumped him further down my ballot to in relation to my penalty for 19th century pitching win shares. I realized I was not (may still not be) docking his impressive career totals.
10) ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger and Schang are both ahead of Mackey IMO.
11) BILLY PIERCE – consistently good, maybe not enough peak to be really high on the ballot.
12) COOL PAPA BELL – Long career, great anecdotal evidence, does he have Shades of Glory numbers Doc C?
12) JOE SEWELL – Has as good an argument for induction as most others on this list.
13) MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner, career vs peak argument.
14) GEORGE SISLER – enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
15) LARRY DOYLE - always on the bubble of my ballot.

16-30 Berger, Willis, Dean, Elliot, Lazzeri, Rizzuto, Rosen, H Wilson, Duffy, Schang, Moore, Fox, Lombardi, Griffith and Vernon

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang and Lombardi
Griffith – about 30.
Willard Brown and Dick Redding –I admit that the HOF vote this week does make Brown a more appealing candidate to me, and what does it say about Redding?

Newbies – Nellie Fox – of course the OPS flaw of making slugging and OBA equal hurts him, but it will be tough for him to ever slide onto my ballot.
   49. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 05, 2006 at 11:26 PM (#1884497)
Mike, could you sort this out:

12) COOL PAPA BELL – Long career, great anecdotal evidence, does he have Shades of Glory numbers Doc C?
12) JOE SEWELL – Has as good an argument for induction as most others on this list.
13) MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner, career vs peak argument.
14) GEORGE SISLER – enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
15) LARRY DOYLE - always on the bubble of my ballot.

   50. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 05, 2006 at 11:28 PM (#1884499)
BTW, I'm assuming that Doyle is odd-man-out by your comments, but I just want to make sure.
   51. Mike Webber Posted: March 06, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#1884654)
Yep, drop Doyle. Sorry Larry! Maybe in '72.

Thanks for helping me John.
   52. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: March 06, 2006 at 02:24 AM (#1884742)
Some people aren’t letting that other election affect them, but I’m pretty malleable, and I need all the help I can get. :-) It confirmed what I thought about Mackey, gives me some doubts about Redding, and helps me make up my mind about Brown -- but I’m still waffling a bit. He’s now just off. The non-election of Lundy, combined with the general opinion here, pushes him off the bottom of my ballot, and he was near that anyway.

1971 ballot:

1. Warren Spahn: An easy no. 1 in most years. The durability is as impressive as the excellence. 17 straight years he started 30 or more games. Only Cy Young did it more (19), and that was another time. (PHOM 1971)

2. Cool Papa Bell: Hitting, incredible speed, great defense, long career. Similar to, but better than, Carey. By Bill James’s rankings, the 10th best centerfielder so far (including Stearnes in cf, James has him in lf). (eligible 1948, PHOM 1957)

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

4. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970)

5. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

6. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

7. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5 Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

8. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

9. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

10. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

11. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961)

12. Clark Griffith: Hanging on. See him as the most deserving player left from the ‘90s. (eligible 1912, PHOM 1945)

13. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & grey ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

14. Bobby Doerr: Like Sewell, 10 all-star caliber seasons in 14 years. Sewell is more frequently at the top according to STATS, 8-4. (eligible 1957)

15. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

16. Willard Brown (eligible 1958)
17. Pete Browning (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)
18. Pie Traynor (eligible 1941)
19. Nellie Fox (eligible 1971)
20. Dick Lundy (eligible 1943)
21. Billy Pierce (eligible 1970)
22. Waite Hoyt (eligible 1944)
23. Tommy Leach (eligible 1921)

Required comments:
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.
Jake Beckley: I was crazy about him in the ‘20s and he made my PHOM in 1926, I’ve cooled off on him since.
Willard Brown: Must have been a great bad-ball hitter. Why would anyone throw him a strike?
I’ve had trouble making up my mind about him. His being elected to the HOF helps. #16.

New guy:
Nellie Fox: second on my 2b depth chart behind Doerr, 19th overall.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940)

HOM not PHOM: Carey, Ashburn, Slaughter, Vance, Averill, Beckwith, Ferrell, Kelley, Sheckard, Jennings, Pike, Pearce, Jackson.

PHOM not HOM: Welch, Grimes, Griffith, Waddell, Redding, Bresnahan, Mackey, Beckley, Sisler, Sewell, Browning, Duffy, Bell.
   53. Patrick W Posted: March 06, 2006 at 03:28 AM (#1884805)
Ben Taylor – 1938 P-HOMer. Could rise to the 15-spot this year, but the 1939 P-HOMer grabs it instead. To me, a vote for Fox necessitates a vote for Bartell. Dick couldn’t sniff the ballot in ’49, and Nellie falls at least 10 wins short of the fringe ballot candidates this year. I’m sure the comments are all out of date; sorry.

1. Warren Spahn (n/a), Bost. – Milw. (N) SP (’42-’65) (1971) – Like Musial, I'm irrationally partial to Spahn over all other pitchers. Not the best, but the guy I want on my team.
2. Bobby Doerr (3), Bost. (A), 2B (’37-’51) (1960) – Obviously a defense and war credit/debit choice, but his offense was both above league and positional averages and the advanced metrics have no question about how valuable a defender he was.
3. Willard Brown (4), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
4. Alejandro Oms (5), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
5. Biz Mackey (6), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967)
6. Bucky Walters (7), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value. This causes Bucky to drop on the ballot. It may have been because I just like saying Bucky. Anyone else here read ‘Get Fuzzy’?
7. Dizzy Trout (8), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
8. Billy Pierce (9), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – Very similar to Dutch Leonard, but does just enough to start above him. Some metrics I have say he should also start ahead of Bucky and Dizzy, but each of them had the monster season that Pierce never quite achieved.
9. Joe Gordon (10), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) (1968) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable. .
10. Dutch Leonard (11), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
11. Phil Rizzuto(12), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59)
12. George Van Haltren (13), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
--. Joe Medwick, St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) –
13. Dom DiMaggio (14), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
14. Bob Johnson (15), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
15. Joe Sewell (--), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.

George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Clark Griffith – In that vast cloud of players just off the ballot.
Cool Papa Bell – Could be on the ballot, but many players can now say that

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   54. Chris Cobb Posted: March 06, 2006 at 03:43 AM (#1884815)
1971 Ballot

My top 2 were elected in 1970, and I have high hopes for my top 2 again. Spahn arrives at the top, Fox falls slightly short of the ballot.

The discussion of mathematics vs discretion in ballot creation made me decide to show my numbers on this year’s ballot, for a change. Combining career win shares, total win shares above average in above average seasons for career (total peak), and peak rate X 5 (adj. slightly for longer peaks), I rank players within individual decades, then adjust that ranking number based on the theoretical quota of electees for that decade. Then I assemble the ballot first according to rank order numbers, and then I adjust as appropriate. This year, I’ve listed all the player’s adjusted in-decade rank, career win shares, total peak, and peak rate, mostly to help keep myself honest, but also for the interest of anyone who actually wants to examine the details of my system. (Note that pitching win shares are not James’s, career and peak win shares are from seasons adjusted to 162 games, and pre-1930 infielders have had their fielding win shares increased by a sliding percentage.)

In addition to displaying the numbers this time, I revisited my placement of players within individual decades. I found that I had been rather unsystematic in my treatment of NeL players and in the placement of players since 1940, so I re-arranged my lists accordingly. The major effect of this change was to shift some players I had dropped in the already-glutted 1930s forward to the 1920s, which caused me to reconsider the borderline players from that era. I had been rating them rather higher than the consensus: I think I did so because I was leaving some players out of their context who should have been there.

I also looked hard at discretionary adjustments I had been making to the detriment of players whose primary excellence was defensive. I decided that, if I was worried that infielders were underrepresented on my ballot, pushing down the great fielders from the spots my system suggested they deserved just might be a cause of that problem. So I removed those discretionary downgrades and a couple of long-neglected players popped back up onto the lower reaches of my ballot.

1. Warren Spahn (n/e). One of the all-time greats. Adj. rank in 1950s #4. 483 cws, 260 total peak, peak rate 58-63 = 31.36/305 ip, 17 seasons at/above avg.
2. Clark Griffith (3). Consistently above average, but has neither huge career nor huge peak. Will this be his year? My system sees him as clearly deserving. Adj. rank in 1890s: #11.5. 2 seasons MLE credit. 341 cws (my system), 130 total peak, pr 95-01 = 30.80 / 365 ip, 11 seasons at/above avg.
3. Dick Redding (8). Reexamination of my system benefits players from 1910s over players from 1920s. It’s hard to get a clear sense of how good his peak was, but his career is #4 among NeL pitchers after Paige, Williams, and Ray Brown. I guess I’m not impressed by his falling short of HoF induction this year. If I had to explain it, I’d guess that they had full and not especially impressive data from the later 1920s, when he was winding down his career managing and ptiching for the not-especially-impressive Brooklyn Royal Giants. What they needed was good dat from the teens, when he was at his peak. Adj. rank in 1910s: #13.5. 1+ seasons war credit. 304 MLE cws, 104 tp, pr 14-18 34.78/365 ip, 10 seasons at/above avg.
4. Willard Brown (5) I haven’t integrated the improved walk rates into my system yet, but downward adjustment of 1920s players moves him past Oms. Cooperstown picking him doesn’t hurt his case with me. Adj. rank in 1940s: #14. 2 seasons war credit. 375 MLE cws, 69 tp, pr 35-39 = 27.40, 12 seasons at/above avg.
5. Joe Gordon (7). Moves up with Brown. Bests Doerr on peak, but both should be HoMers. Adj. rank in 1940s: #15.5. 2 seasons war credit. 317 cws, 64 tp (I increase infielders’ cws and peak ws by 10% when comparing them to other positions), pr 39-43 = 28.52, 11 seasons at/above avg.
6. Jose Mendez (9). Moves up with Redding, but not quite so much. Best pitching peak on the board, and his comeback play in the 1920s gives him enough career value for election, as I see it. And so did Cooperstown, apparently. Adj. rank in 1910s. 14.5. 260 MLE cws, 112 total peak, pr 10-14 = 38.97 / 365 ip, 7 seasons at/above avg.
7. Bobby Doerr. Reconsideration of decade vs. decade rankings draws Doerr up my ballot, as does accepting my system’s view of him as a bit better than Ralph Kiner. Adj. rank in 1940s: #16.5. 1 season war credit. 317 cws, 49 tp, pr 46-50 = 27.04, 10 seasons at/above avg.
8. Alejandro Oms (4). Did everything well for a long time. Drops in my rankings somewhat as a result of my reexamination of my division of players between the 1920s and 1930s, but it’s still clear that he belongs. Adj. rank in 1920s: #17. 357 MLE cws, 78 tp, pr 21-25 = 30.11 / 162 g, 9 seasons at/above avg.
9. Minnie Minoso (12). A lot like Ashburn and Oms in that he had a long, strong, consistent prime without having a really outstanding peak (Van Haltren is also in this category, but his performance level was slightly lower than theirs). That, and WARP’s lukewarm view of him are keep him below Doerr and Oms, but I’ll take his lasting, well-rounded game over the sluggers just below. Adj. 1950s rank: #16.5. 3 seasons MLE credit. 353 cws, 73 tp, pr 54-59 = 29.39. 11 seasons at/above avg.
10. Gavvy Cravath (13). Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. Adj. 1910s rank: #16. 5 seasons MLE credit. 334 cws, 71 tp, pr 13-17 = 32.27, 9 seasons at/above average.
11. Ralph Kiner (14). Great peak versus strong competition. Adj. 1940s rank: #17.5. 2 seasons war credit. 300 cws, 72 tp, pr 47-52 = 33.00, 8 seasons at/above avg.
   55. Chris Cobb Posted: March 06, 2006 at 03:45 AM (#1884818)
1971 Ballot Continued

12. Biz Mackey (5). I still support his elections, but he drops significantly in re-evaluation. I guess I wasn’t impressed by his being elected to the HoF. He drops partly because of my reevaluation of the 1920s borderline candidates, partly because I had been ranking him above his numbers, based on the general idea that his value in the 1930s was underrated by the numbers. When I sat down actually to estimate the degree of underrating that could be going on, it became clear that I had been overcompensating. A revised view of his stats placed him right in the company of other players with long careers as defensive specialists: Rabbit Maranville and Herman Long, both of whom I have decided to rank again where my system puts them, rather than down-grading them because of their poor consensus showing. The Nellie Fox discussion of fielding value has persuaded me that their candidacies have suffered because they have low OPS+ scores, and not necessarily because rigorous arguments have shown them to be poorer players than the comprehensive metrics suggest. So Mackey, Maranville, and Long make a new down-ballot trio of fielding stars in my rankings. Adj. 1920s rank: #20. 390 MLE cws (catcher-adj.), 47 tp, pr 22-28 = 25.23, 10 seasons at/above avg.
13. Rabbit Maranville (26). Back on my ballot for the first time since 1942. Benefits both from reconsideration of 1910s stars and from reconsideration of fielding stars. It should be remembered that he lost a year of his prime to WWI. If the lively ball hadn’t been introduced in the middle of his career, I suspect he would already be in the HoM. Relatively low number of above-average seasons relative to his career is a concern, and I’m going to continue to evaluate Maranville & Long-type infielder careers against the Sewell-type of career for next election, but this ranking represents my current best sense of the relative merits of the two types. Adj. 1910s rank: #17. 1 season war credit. 361 cws, 32 tp, pr 14-19 = 26.78, 8 seasons at/above avg.
14. Herman Long (55). Huge jump back into consideration. This is where my system puts him, and I’ve been ignoring it in favor of the consensus. Then I wonder why I don’t have many infielders on or near my ballot?? Hmm. . . Reassessment of infielder defense will continue next year. Similar career to Maranville. A bit shorter, a bit higher peak. Adj. 1890s rank #18.5. 336 cws, 40 5p, pr 89-93 = 30.54, 8 seasons at/above avg.
15. Burleigh Grimes (10). Another 1920s player slides down a bit. His mix of good and bad seasons is peculiar, but he had a lot of good years. I think my system tends to overrate this kind of pitcher slightly, which is why I have him ranked slightly below where it says I should put him. Adj. 1920s rank: #19. 303 cws, 133 tp, pr 20-24 = 27.33 / 325 ip. 11 seasons at/above avg.

Returning top 10 players not on ballot:

Cool Papa Bell. See #31 below
George Van Haltren. See #19 below.
George Sisler. See #24 below.

1971 Off-Ballot.

16. Billy Pierce (17). Much more consistently good than Grimes, but less heft to his career. Adj. 1950s rank: #19. 282 cws, 107 tp, pr 55-59 = 30.77 / 305 ip, 12 seasons at/above avg.
17. Bobo Newsom (18). A lot like Burleigh Grimes, but without the spitball and without the hitting. Adj. 1940s rank: #19.5. 297 cws, 120 tp, pr 36-40 = 30.20 / 305 ip, 11 seasons at/above avg.
18. Nellie Fox (n/e). His arrival has shaken up my ballot but does not change my view of merit so much as to bring Fox onto my ballot. I think he is worthy of election: he’s right on my all-time in/out line, but that won’t be enough to get him on to the ballot until we get deeper into the backlog in the mid-1970s. I’m pretty certain that both Gordon and Doerr are stronger candidates, but I’ll be comparing him to Maranville, Long, Childs, Elliott, Rizzuto, Sewell, and Dobie Moore with care over the next couple of years. Adjusted 1950s rank: #20. 316 cws, 52 tp, pr 54-59 = 26.85 (5), 10 at/above avg.
19. George Van Haltren (21). Fine prime, but peak performance never approached MVP level of play. Right on my all-time in/out line, I think. Adj. 1890s rank: #20. 379 cws, 47 total peak, pr 93-98 = 27.80, 12 seasons at/above avg.
20. Rube Waddell (20). Adj. 1900s rank: #20.5. 270 cws, 125 tp, pr 02-06 = 38.44 / 365, 9 seasons at/above avg.
21. Mickey Welch (23). Exceedingly hard to rank pre-1893 pitchers vs later players. I rather wish we’d elected Welch back in the day, but I can’t quite see bringing him on to my ballot now. Adj. 1880s rank: #20.5. 415 cws, 184 tp, pr 26.44 / 365, 9 seasons at/above avg.
22. Bucky Walters (24). A few great seasons, but career isn’t all that compelling. Adj. 1940s rank: #20.5. 260 cws, 105 tp, pr 39-44 = 32.37/325, 7 seasons at/above avg.
23. Edd Roush (11). At his best, a very high impact player, but his ranking is hurt because he missed a lot of games. Adj. 1920s rank: #21. 333 cws, 57 tp, pr 17-23 = 33.77, 9 seasons at/ above avg.
24. George Sisler (14). I’ve been a long-time moderate supporter of Sisler, but sustaining that support was leading my ballot to increasingly uncomfortable convolutions. Dropping him down just below the all-time in-out line makes more sense. I wouldn’t regard his election as a significant mistake by any means, but I will no longer advocate for his election. An excellent player during his peak, but sadly diminished after his sinus troubles. Adj. 1920s rank: #22. 327 cws, 62 tp, pr 16-22 = 32.87, 8 seasons at/above avg.
25. Tommy Leach (22). Adj. 1900s rank: #22. 365 cws, 52 tp, pr 01-09 = 29.81, 8 at/above avg.
26. C. Jones (28). Adj. 1880s rank: #23.4. 2+ years blacklist credit. 358 ws, tp 80, pr 78-80, 83-85 = 32.98, 11 seasons at/above avg.
27-31. Byrd #21.5 1940s, Bond #22.5 1870s, Newcombe #21 1950s, Bresnahan #23 1900s, Arlett #23 1920s.
32-36. CP Bell #25.5 1930s, Childs #24 1890s, Matlock #26.5 1930s, Doyle #18 1910s, Poles #19 1910s.
37-46. Elliott, Mays, Shocker, B. Clarkson, M. Williams, B. Johnson, Ryan, Schang, Trouppe, Scales.
47-56. D. Moore, Keller, B. Taylor, Beckley, D. Dimaggio, J. Sewell, Lundy, Duffy, Harder, Hoyt.
57-66. Wi. Cooper, Pesky, Cross, York, Cuyler, Hooper, Vernon, Veach, F. Jones, Luque,.
67-76. McGraw, Williamson, Rizzuto, Stephens, McCormick, GJ Burns, Fournier, Petway, Monroe, Dean.
77-85. Adams, Tiernan, Browning, Rice, Bancroft, Chance, Day, Mullane, H. Smith.
   56. caspian88 Posted: March 06, 2006 at 04:26 AM (#1884879)
1. Warren Spahn - Better career value than anyone else here, and even Mendez' peak doesn't pull him above spahn. 118 ERA+, 5243.2 IP.

2. Jose Mendez - Once again, reminds me of Juan Marichal, judging by his Win Share translations in his discussion thread. Great peak, but it doesn't outweigh Spahn's career. Horray Hall of Fame!

3. Bobby Doerr - Almost as good offensively as Gordon, and a better fielder with a longer career. 115 OPS+, 1184 RC, 5.91 RC/27, A fielder.

4. Alejandro Oms - WS translations put him about here for me.

5. Addie Joss - I rate him higher than just about anyone else. Insane ERA total, excellent ERA+ totals, and even compared to the pitchers still available to be elected, he's the best of the major league group. Even with his relatively low IP totals, I don't see how he can rate below Griffith, Wynn, and the others. The man was good. I didn't even give him credit for seasons missed due to death. 142 ERA+, 2327 IP.

6. Charlie Keller - Awesome peak, especially if we give war credit. Even without it, he only drops a few spots. I just don't see how one can ignore his 1940-1946 seasons. I'm a strong believer in the peak. 152 OPS+, 803 RC, 7.75 RC/27, C fielder.

7. Roger Bresnahan - Another man with a deserving peak. Catcher who had OPS+ between 129 and 162 for 6 seasons, with short but effective seasons at other times, while being a good fielder who also played center. He looks to have been a decent basestealer, although we only have one year of full data (19/3 in his last season). 126 OPS+, 646 RC, 5.22 RC/27, B fielder.

8. George Sisler - 1916-1922 was great, with a few more useful seasons besides. Just beats out Easter, to whom I can't give too much extra credit. 124 OPS+, 1477 RC, 6.7 RC/27, B- fielder.

9. Joe Gordon - not better than Doerr, peak not as impressive as Bresnahan or Sisler, short career (even with war credit). Those are the reasons for his ranking here. 120 OPS+, 942 RC, 5.73 RC/27, B fielder.

10. Clark Griffith - Very good peak from 1895-1901, just not as good as Joss. Slightly better than Redding, who upon further review has dropped. 121 ERA+, 3385.2 IP.

11. Edd Roush - actually appears to have been a better hitter than any other center fielder (except Snider) on the ballot, with above-average defense as well. 126 OPS+, 1204 RC, 6.09 RC/27, B- fielder.

12. Dick Redding - By WS, I have him just below Griffith, and Roush just edges in here above him. Very good pitcher, though - but this ballot is very tight. Boo Hall of Fame.

13. Luke Easter - Awesome when he played, simply phenomenal. Too bad he didn't play more than he actually did.

14. Ralph Kiner - If baseball statistics were "pictures of negotiable virtue," Kiner's page on Baseball Reference would be among the top in the way of hits. Great peak, marred by defense and by his short career. He stands a good chance of moving up as I reevaluate my rankings. 149 OPS+, 1140 RC, 7.9 RC/27, C fielder.

15. Rube Waddell - Another great pitcher hurt by a short-dead-ball era career. 134 ERA+, 2961.1 IP.

Top 10 not on the ballot and a few besides:

Biz Mackey - average hitter, great fielder, right? But I'm no longer too sure about catcher defense and its actual value. Is an average catcher worth as much as an average shortstop, defensively? Maybe in the Negro Leagues, with more emphasis on bunts and baserunning. I just can't see him rating above Bresnahan or Trouppe.

Cool Papa Bell - Just misses the ballot, with Roush ahead of him at his position.

George Van Haltren - Just below Bell.

Nellie Fox - not as good a hitter or fielder as Doerr or Gordon.

Roy Sievers - Not quite a high enough peak to beat even Waddell for me.

Vic Power - Short career, bad offense. Just not good enough.
   57. Andrew M Posted: March 06, 2006 at 04:39 AM (#1884901)
1971 Ballot

1. (new) Warren Spahn. Now that’s a career.

2. (3) Dobie Moore. Not quite the peak of Jennings, but I think he was a great player for longer. With a few years' credit for his army years, his career seems of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

3. (4) Larry Doyle. I have the 2B ordered: Doyle, Fox, Childs, Gordon, Doerr. I have Doyle higher than most voters because a) I don’t devalue the 10s NL, b) I think his defense was probably closer to Win Shares’ evaluation (C+) then BP’s, and c) I think he was the best hitter (126 OPS+) of the 5. Doyle was consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., won an MVP award, and was an 8 time STATS NL all-star.

4. (5) Clark Griffith. With the possible exception of 1898, he was never the best pitcher in the league, but his peak between 1895-1901 is impressive. He had a .620 career win pct. while pitching for some pretty mediocre teams and a 3.86 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3300 career innings. His career isn’t long, but there is an argument that he should get some credit for pitching in the PCL in 1892 and 1893. Could also hit some (69 career OPS+).

5. (6) Edd Roush. One of the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons and a year in which he was arguably the best player on a team that won a World Series. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

6. (new) Nellie Fox. I like Fox a lot. He was durable, consistent, got on base a lot, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. It’s a value judgment, of course, but I think that adds up to a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.

7. (8) Geo. Van Haltren. Doesn't have the peak of most of the other players on this ballot, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures (e.g. 121 OPS+) make a less compelling argument.

8. (9) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was truly an outstanding player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick or Averill.

9. (10) Minnie Minoso. Excellent OF for a decade. NeL credit bumps up his career value.

10. (9) Cupid Childs. Excellent peak. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs.

11. (12) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76. Had he pitched more innings per season, he probably would already have been elected—regardless of how troubled he may have been. As it was, his career was relatively short, but he did pitch almost 3,000 innings.

12. (13) Cool Papa Bell. Long career in which he contributed many positive things (speed, fielding, lots of singles) to his teams that may not be reflected in his modest estimated OPS+.

13. (15) Billy Pierce. I think comparisons to Lemon and Ferrell are apt, though he also seems similar to Clark Griffith in some ways. He’s neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.

14. (13) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF. With reasonable war credit, Gordon seems to have a slightly better HoM argument than Doerr, Lazzeri, or Stephens, though what happened to him in 1946?

15. (12) Tommy Bridges. Not much of a workhorse—though he did finish in the top 10 in innings 5 times—and he couldn’t hit, but he did have six 140 ERA+ seasons in the 1930s and 40s American League.

Next 5
Bob Johnson, Willard Brown, Quincy Trouppe, George J. Burns, Alejandro Oms

Required disclosures:
Biz Mackey. I have him behind Trouppe.
Bobby Doerr. I don’t think his peak was quite a good as the 2B ahead of him. Currently in the mid 20s.
Dick Redding. Need to look at him again, but he doesn’t seem to have the peak or career to rise above the starting pitcher glut.
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 06, 2006 at 01:22 PM (#1885322)
36 ballots accounted for. Still missing ballots from: SWW, Dr. Chaleeko, Eric C, David Foss, Dan G, Kelly Back in SD, Trevor P, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, and RmC.

At this point, there's a battle for second, so no ballots will be accepted after 8 PM EST.
   59. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 06, 2006 at 02:38 PM (#1885376)
1971 Ballot

1. Spahn: If he hadn't gone to war he might have won 400!
2. Mendez: The Hall got him right.
3. Walters: High peak and enough career to be for real. Ferrell and Lemon went in, now it's his turn.
4. Trouppe: The Hall didn't get him right.
5. C Jones: Isn't it time for a 19th Century committee? Best available left fielder.
6. Pierce: Another model to walk down my high-peak/medium innings runway.
7. W Brown: Moves ahead of Duffy based on new walk data. The Hall got him right too.
8. Duffy: Same old reasons.
9. Bresnahan: Has peak.
10. Mullane: Even with all the discounts, he's a damn good pitcher.
11. Browning: I like the peak, I can live with the career.
12. Cooper: Underrated by the electorate; a decent peak but a very nice prime.
13. Grimes: Early Wynn v. 1.0.
14. V Willis: Underachiever but still among the HOMable pitchers.
15. C Childs: I love the peak, I love the prime, I love Cupid's House of Peak and Prime.

16. Mackey: Doesn't have peak (but the Hall still got him right).
17. Williamson
18. Oms
19. Redding
20. Newcombe
21. Latham
22. GVH
(Sisler and Bell are in here somewhere)
31. N Fox: Behind Childs and Doyle, ahead of Doerr, Gordon, and Marvin Williams (remember him???).
(Griffith is down here somewhere)

(Vic Power and Roy Sievers are way down here somewhere.)
   60. DavidFoss Posted: March 06, 2006 at 02:47 PM (#1885387)
Gotta vote before I forget. I'm cautious with Fox, I favor better hitters.

1971 is the year I was born, so I'm looking forward to that occurring later this coming summer.

1971 Ballot

1. Warren Spahn (ne) -- Excellent two-year non-consecutive peak and then an *ocean* of workhorse 120-130 ERA+ seasons. That's too much .600 support-neutral wpct seasons to ignore. Easy #1.
2. Clark Griffith (2) -- The plethora of borderline live-ball pitchers is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark, who pitched well in an even livelier era. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.
3. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
4. John McGraw (4) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
5. Cupid Childs (5) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Dick Redding (6) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Ralph Kiner (7) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
8. Gavvy Cravath (8) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
9. Biz Mackey (9) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft spot for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
10. Charley Jones (10) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
11. George Sisler (11) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
12. Joe Gordon (12) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot instead of Ruffing.
13. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
14. Joe Sewell (14) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
15. Bob Elliott (15) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
   61. DavidFoss Posted: March 06, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#1885392)
16-20. BJohnson, Doerr, WBrown, BPierce, Rosen,
21-25. Trouppe, Browning, Chance, Fox, Lombardi,
26-30. Beckley, Welch, DMoore, Minoso, Leach,
31-35. Waddell, Roush, CPBell, Newcombe, BWalters
   62. SWW Posted: March 06, 2006 at 04:18 PM (#1885507)
Nice to actually be alive for these proceedings. The top of my ballot should surprise no one. Yes, I’m voting for Crash.

<u>1971 Ballot</u>
1)Warren Edward Spahn – “Duke”
Left-hander extraordinaire. The kind of guy who makes it easy to like career numbers. 15th on SABR Top 100. 18th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 21st on Sporting News Top 100. 36th on Bill James Top 100. 80th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 27th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100. New York Times Top 100.
2)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
Seeing Early Wynn get elected last year, and contemplating the top pitching candidates for this year, I’m nowhere near ending my support for this guy. A standout National League pitcher of his era. The best possible combination of prime and career, several seasons as one of the best pitchers in the game. Made it to 11 ballots last year, so clearly the campaign is building steam. Get on board, people! 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)James Thomas Bell – “Cool Papa”
Great career numbers. Overwhelming contemporary acclaim. I liked Max Carey. That’ll do. 66th on Sporting News Top 100. 74th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 76th on Bill James Top 100. New York Times Top 100. 3rd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
4)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
A tremendous high with decent career filler. As a Hall member, he would follow in the footsteps of guys like Medwick and Averill. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen’s Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5)James Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
Got his real first name! His numbers are not as gaudy as those of Gibson or Santop, but they are significantly greater than his Major League counterparts. Recent activities in Cooperstown have not affected his placement one iota. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
6)Edd J Roush
Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate.
7)Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
Moving him up. The reconsideration of his Negro League performance helped a little, but another look at his major league numbers helped even more. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
8)Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”

I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
9)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Easier to swallow than the mess of pitchers, though. I do like me some center fielders.
10)Willard Jessie Brown – “Home Run”
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. The new plaque in upstate New York is reassuring, but not a factor in his placement here.
11)Robert Pershing Doerr
In peak and prime, extremely similar to Gordon. I give Bobby the edge owing to the comsistency throughout his career.
12)Joseph Lowell Gordon
Possibly hurt by the war more than any other player we’ve reviewed. His numbers suffer so significantly upon his return. His outstanding prime, plus five years along the ten best in WS in the AL, keep him this high.
13)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
14)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
15)José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
The one spot where the recent HOF doings had an impact. Unlike Andy Cooper, he’s been hovering just off my ballot for years, in spite of a prime that, if the projections are correct, is positively monstrous. It came down to Mendez and Redding, and while Cannonball has the edge in career WS, I’m going to defer to the experts and vote for José. Granted, these same experts also just elected five executives, two of whom were white. But still...

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Clark Calvin Griffith
I found that Griffith had striking similarities to Dick Redding, who I have voted for in the past. Redding has a higher peak, Griffith a higher prime. So for the time being, they’ll be my Van Haltren & Ryan of pitchers, hanging out together through thick and thin.
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. Only finished in the Top 10 in Win Shares in his league once.
Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Like I said, it was close between him and Mendez. I’m always looking at those two, so I could always switch. Watch this space.
   63. Ken Fischer Posted: March 06, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#1885526)
1971 Ballot

1-Warren Spahn 412 WS
To me Warren is a no brainer. I can count only a few pitchers I’d rather have on the mound.

2-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM.

3-Biz Mackey
It seems like Biz is not getting a fair shake from the voters. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

5-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Obviously I disagree with the recent HOF vote. They missed the boat on Cannonball.

6-Cool Papa Bell
It appears many HOM voters think Bell is overrated. I’m not so sure. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

7-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of the most overlooked ballplayers in history…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

11-Gil Hodges 263 WS
Gil would be making big bucks in the AL if he was playing today. He would be a great DH/1B right-handed hitting slugger. He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

12-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Minnie had one of the most interesting careers in baseball history. With a late start he still made 7 All-Star teams. His SB numbers would be off the chart if they ran more in the 50s. Some credit for Negro Leagues. He’ll probably make the other hall on February 27.

13-Nellie Fox 304 WS
Nellie was underrated. Bobby Wallace is among his comps. 1959 MVP. Tutored Joe Morgan.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-Bobby Doerr 281 WS
Gordon was better…but he still was one of the best. A glue for the great 40’s Red Sox teams.

On depth chart…same comments stand
…#41 Clark Griffiths…IMHO…5 to 10 pitchers of more value to their team available
…#51 George Sisler…see James on Sisler
   64. Max Parkinson Posted: March 06, 2006 at 04:47 PM (#1885579)
1971 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Spahn and Cool Papa)

1. Warren Spahn

2. Dick Redding

One of the 4 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Waddell and Griffith had fallen off my ballot, but they’ve risen from the dead this month), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

3. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

4. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

5. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak.

6. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little.

7. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Cool Papa Bell

Elected to the MP HoM this year. Congrats, Papa.

10. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

11. John McGraw

Went PHoM a couple of years ago.

12. Joe Sewell
13. Biz Mackey
14. Clark Griffith

fingers crossed…

15. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

16. George Burns (the good one)
17. Ned Williamson
18. Bobby Veach
19. Willard Brown
20. Minnie Minoso

Previous Top 10s:

Bobby Doerr is 28. Close to the ballot, but not breaking away from Monroe or Childs. Note that I don’t give war credit.

Joe Gordon is at 41.

Beckley is 46 – right between Tommy Leach and Jimmy Ryan.

GVH is not my kind of hitter (decent prime but not a great peak). He’s at 92.
   65. Trevor P. Posted: March 06, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#1885941)
My top two went in the HOM in 1971. Reconsideration of 2B in the wake of Fox's candidacy leads to some mid-to-low ballot shakeup.

1) Warren Spahn (--). Much better than Early Wynn - and Wynn was my #1 last year.
2) George Van Haltren (3). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares, for what it's worth.
3) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite alot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
4) Quincy Trouppe (5). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Dick Redding (6). He's sure worked his way up the ballot. Not quite as durable as Wynn, but "Cannonball" threw more high-quality innings than the now-inducted Bob Lemon.
6) Cupid Childs (9). Coming into this ballot, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation underscored how impressive his peak really was.
7) Edd Roush (7). 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated. Jumps up when compared to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
8) Clark Griffith (8). Big jump for Griffith over the past few years, as I was not adequately accounting for his play in the contracted NL of the 1890s.
9) Bob Elliott (10). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Win Shares seems to be the only metric keeping Elliott out of serious consideration.
10) Willard Brown (--). If Brown had never posted that 12-for-67 in 1947, I think I would've had less trouble placing him all these years. I'm giving in and placing him 10th this year - Dr. C's win share estimates from 1937 onwards (his "breakthrough" year) are pretty similar to GVH, so he's on the ballot.
11) Alejandro Oms (12). Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
12) Billy Pierce (12). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Alternatively, he's sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount.
13) Bobby Doerr (--). Is it too late to get on the Doerr bandwagon? The second best 2B available, after Childs.
14) Wally Schang (13). Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time. 78.0 WARP1 is about one win per full season less than Cochrane.
15) Biz Mackey (15). Durable defensive catcher with enough offensive impact in his best years to make the ballot.

George Sisler - Mackey's HOF election gives him the final ballot spot this week, dropping Sisler to #16.

Joe Gordon - As I only give about 70% war credit, Gordon falls in line behind Doerr. He does move up into position #19 this week, however - a jump from the mid-thirties.

Nellie Fox - Fourth best 2B available, though it's about fifteen spaces from Gordon to Fox. Offensively Fox is almost equivalent to Biz Mackey, sans catcher bonus.

C.P. Bell - Not enough time to review his case this week, but he could move up for 1973.
   66. Esteban Rivera Posted: March 06, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#1886032)
1971 Ballot:

1. Warren Spahn – Amazing durability at a high level. Number one with a bullet.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

5. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

9. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

10. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

14. Minnie Minoso – Staying put for this year. I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

15. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me

16. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

17. Cupid Childs
18. Joe Gordon
19. Bobby Doerr – All three are very close to each other. After adding and subtracting the different types of credit I use, this is the order they ended up in. All of them deserve eventual induction.

20. Willard Brown – Finally moves into my top 20. Has the hitting I’m looking for, with a slight demerit for the walks. However, I see him as a good enshrinee.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.
   67. KJOK Posted: March 06, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#1886036)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. WARREN SPAHN, P. 51 POW, 153 WARP1, 319 RSAA, 303 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 118 ERA+ in 5,246 innings. Lived just a few miles from me the last few years of his life.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 28 POW, 83 WARP1, 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. One of the best pitchers of the 1890s, and in the top 10 of his 30 year era.

6. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

9. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

10. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

11. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. “War” years puts him slightly behind Snider.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

14. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

15. BOBBY DOERR, 2B. 40 POW, 107 WARP1, 234 RCAP & .539 OWP in 8,028 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Have him just ahead of Childs & Gordon at this time.



NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr, Childs, & Gordon.


COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception perhaps a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson, or Averill, who can’t make my ballot.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.
   68. Kelly in SD Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#1886118)
As you can see by my new name, there have been some changes in my life. My wife's and my son is now over a month old and life will be hectic for the foreseeable future.

1971 Ballot:
<u>PHoM Inductees</u>: Warren Spahn and Dazzy Vance

1. Warren Spahn - PHOM 1971 – Roger Clemens just passed Spahn for most win shares by a post-Dead Ball pitcher. Spahn has an amazing career. Only Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, and Lefty Grove had more Black Ink points. Only Cy Young and Johnson have more Grey Ink. Only Vic Willis has a higher 7-year prime and that was 50-60 years previous.

2. Mickey Welch – PHOM 1901 - The weight of the evidence.
Record against other HoMers: 62-38, Radbourn 17-10, Galvin 26-11 (or 9), Ward 4-7, Clarkson 13-7.
Records of other HoMers of the era against one another and Welch:
Radbourn 41-39
Keefe 42-40
Clarkson 31-30
Galvin 42-52
Caruthers 8-6

Most Similar Pitchers:
Of the 8 most similar pitchers, 6 are HoMers (Radbourn, Keefe, Clarkson, Nichols, Seaver, and Plank) and Burleigh Grimes is a 7th.

Defensive Support:
Some voters have issues with early pitchers because they believe their results were so dependent upon the defense behind them. A previous poster looked at how many teams max’d out their defensive win shares in a given year.
John Clarkson pitched for 8 teams that reached the win shares limit.
Tim Keefe pitched for 4 teams that reached the limit (only one time when he and Welch were teammates)
Old Hoss Radbourn for 5 teams
Bob Caruthers for 5 teams
Mickey Welch for 1 team
Now, each pitchers ERA+:
Clarkson: 134
Keefe: 125
Caruthers: 123
Radbourn: 120
Welch: 113

Offensive Support:
Chris J. developed a Run Scoring Index or RSI that showed how a pitcher’s run support compared to the average pitcher’s support. Anything over 100 is above average.
Bob Caruthers: 111.34
John Clarkson: 109.46
Tim Keefe: 107.16
Charley Radbourn: 106.83
Mickey Welch: 102.79

So, Welch has the worse run support and defensive support, but has a comparable record? It must be luck.
Welch has worse run support and defensive support than other HoMers, yet has a better record than they? It must be luck.
Welch has a winning record against HoMers whether his team is better than theirs or worse than theirs? It must be luck.
Welch did this while pitching the 3rd most innings of pre-60 feet pitchers. I guess he was lucky for 4800 innings.

3. Charley Jones – PHOM 1906 - I give 2+ seasons credit for being blackballed. Among position players, by win shares, he ranks tied for 4th in 1878, 2nd in 1879, 6th in 1883, 1st in 1884, 3rd in 1885. Now add in 2 missing years in 1881 and 1882. Also, career OPS+ of 149.
His 1876 score is artificially low because of the quality of his team. In 1876, his team had a .138 winning percentage, winning 9 games out of 65. Jones had 33% of his team’s win shares. He was 20th in the league among position players in total WS, but 1st by percentage of team. In 1877, Jones again has the greatest percentage of his team’s win shares (among position players, but in a tie).

4. Pete Browning – PHOM 1921 - The second best peak and prime. Has the best OPS+ among eligibles by 10 points, 162 to Keller’s 152. An All-Star by STATS 8 times and win shares 5 times. Among position players, he is 1st in 1882 in AA, 4th in 1883, 5th in 1884, 1st in 1885, 2nd in 1887, 5th in 1890 Players League.

5. Charlie Keller – PHOM 1957 - WWII credit for one season and one partial at his established level. Great peak and prime.
Only Pete Browning has a higher career OPS+ than Keller’s 152.
Was an on-base machine, with the 4th highest OBP among eligibles behind McGraw, Childs, and Roy Thomas. His .518 SLG is 7th.
Among position players in WS: 1939 -22-14th (rookie year). 1940 – 24 ws – 9th. 1941 – 32 ws – 4th. 1942 – 34 ws – 2nd. 1943 – 36 ws – 2nd. 1946 – 31 ws – 4th. For six years, only Dimaggio and Williams were better (and Musial, but that’s NL).

6. Hugh Duffy – PHOM 1918 - Adjusted for season length, only Browning and Keller have a better peak, and only Browing and Charley Jones have a better prime.
An A+ outfielder for his career who played less than 50% of his games in center.
He was 2nd in 1890 PL. 1891 AA 3rd. 1892 NL 5th. 1893 NL 1st (tied). 1894 NL 1st. 1895 NL 11th. 1897 8th. 1898 13th.

7. Bucky Walters – PHOM 1958 - Best National League pitcher between Hubbell and Roberts/Spahn. This ranking is after I reduce his WWII efforts.
3 times best pitcher in NL. Best pitcher by 12 win shares, 38 to 26; by 4 win shares, 32 to 28; by 8 win shares, 32 to 24. He missed by 1 win share in 1941 of leading the league 4 times.
Only 3 eligibles have a better peak. Has 10th highest prime. Only Dean has more Black Ink, but for Spahn.
Chris J. has calculated the Average Opponent’s Winning Percentage. Walters faced tougher average opponents then any real candidate. Only Nap Rucker, Thorton Lee, and Eddie Smith faced tougher.

8. Quincy Troupe – PHOM 1960 - Long career catcher at a very high level. An All-star 23 different times. The productive phase of his career lasted longer then Mackey’s. 7 times with over 20 win shares is nothing to sneeze at from a catcher. I do not give credit for the year spent boxing, but I do for the War. The huge number of walks is a big plus for me. I trust our researchers over the HoF decision.

9. Alejandro Ohms – PHOM 1964 - Big plus for my system is the 8 years of at least 25 win shares. While he doesn’t have the big peak that I like, his prime his fantastic.
His thread says everything I would say, but better.
   69. Kelly in SD Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#1886121)
10. Cupid Childs - PHOM 1932 - Childs was the best second basemen of the 1890s by a wide margin. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year of the decade. A key member of the great 1890s Clevelend teams.

11. Vic Willis – PHOM 1942 - Only Spahn has a higher career win share total. Tied with Waddell for best non-consecutive peak. Highest prime of any eligible pitcher. He ranks lower than other pitchers because I have a higher standard for earlier pitchers than post deadballers.
First in NL twice (1899, 1901).
Top 10 pitcher in 1902 (2nd), 1903 (9th), 1906 (2nd), 1907 (9th), 1908 (8th), 1909 (5th)

12. Jose Mendez- PHOM 1967: Big beneficiary of rereading his thread. Fantastic peak/prime. And did really well against top-of-the-line white teams. REREAD HIS THREAD.

13. Willard Brown – PHOM 1970: I believe he would have walked enough in the majors now. Please review the new information provided by Gadfly and the new MLEs. One of the top 5 power hitters of the NeLs?

14. Tommy Leach - PHOM 1966 - I know Leach split time in centerfield along with third, but I see him as the most qualified 3rd baseman by far. 7 Gold Gloves by win shares. 5 times a win shares All-Star. Instrumental in the Pittsburgh defenses of the first 15 years of the 20th century.
Rank in LG:
1899: 13 WS, NR
1900: 3 WS, NR
1901: 17 WS,
1902: 27 WS, 4th in NL, best 3rd in NL and Majors
1903: 21 WS, 14th tied, best 3rd in NL (tied)
1904: 25 WS, 6th in NL, best 3rd in NL (tied)
1905: 17 WS, NR
1906: 19 WS, NR
1907: 29 WS, 4th in NL, 3rd best OF in NL – all-star.
1908: 31 WS, 4th in NL, 2nd best 3rd to Hans Lobart’s 32 in NL and majors.
1909: 26 WS, 7th in NL, 4th best OF in NL (Clarke 31, Mitchell 28, Hofman 27)
1910: 16 WS, NR
1911: 10 WS, NR
1912: 14 WS, NR
1913: 24 WS, 4th in NL, 2nd best OF in NL
1914: 27 WS, 4th in NL, 4th best OF in NL (Burns 31, Magee 29, Cravath 28)
1915: 7 WS, NR

15. Dobie Moore – PHOM 1967: No infielder has such a great peak. I give 3 years credit for Army play. An all-star every year he was healthy.
Please review the information on his thread.

16. <u>Frank Chance</u>: Benefits from my reconsideration. 6 year run as best first baseman in baseball. His Cubs were the winning-est team of all time based on anything from 1 year to 8 years (or more). It wasn’t just Brown and Sheckard. Great at getting on base. I think people forget he had a OPS+ of 135 while still being in the top 70 in career stolen bases.
1903 – 31 WS – 3rd NL, 1904 – 29 WS – 2nd NL, 1905 – 25WS – 8th NL, 1906 – 35 WS – 3rd NL, 1907 – 23 WS – 6th NL, 1908 – 20 WS. Best first baseman in NL 1903-1908. Best in majors 1903-1907.

17. <u>George Burns – PHOM 1938</u> - Like his balance. 4 top 5s in extra-base hits and 6 top 10s. Also, led league in walks 5 times, 2 other top 5s, 2 more top 10s. 8 top 10s in runs created. 3 times best outfielder in league, 1 time second, 2 times 3rd best OF in NL. 8 straight years among top 10 position players in NL including 1 first and 4 times in top 3. And he did this as a lead off hitter.

18. <u>Burleigh Grimes – PHOM 1961</u> - Not just a slop pitcher. 7 top 10s in K/9. 10 top 10s in IP with 3 firsts. 11 top 10s in wins with 2 firsts.
6 years as win shares All-Star, 7 years with 20 win shares, 4 over 25, 2 over 30. 5 times a STATS all-star.
3 year peak of 92 win shares is in the top 10 among eligibles, career total of 286 is 4th among eligibles, 7 year prime of 181 is 5th behind 4 pitchers whose primes were in better pitching times.

19. <u>Ralph Kiner</u> – excellent peak/prime/per season. 5 year peak was fantastic. Only Keller has 4 years over 30 win shares among eligibles (and Browning and Jones if adjusted for season length.) Tied with Jones behind Keller and Browning for OPS+. Only Roy Thomas and McGraw have more walks per year.

20. <u>Wilbur Cooper</u> - Similar to Grimes, just 700 fewer innings and better defensive support. Had 9 years of 20 win shares. This is unique. The number of pitchers with 9 or more such seasons since he retired are Grove, Spahn, Clemens, Seaver, Maddux, Palmer, Niekro, and Blyleven. But he only had 1 year over 30. A 4 time STATS all-star, 6 times win shares all-star. 12th in non-consecutive 3 yr peak. 8th in consecutive 3-yr peak. 6th in 7yr prime. 7 top 10s in ERA+, 8 top 10s in wins, 8 top 10s in IP.
   70. Kelly in SD Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#1886128)
<u>21-25: Gavy Cravath, Orestes Minoso, Biz Mackey, Dick Redding, George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939)</u>:
<u>Mackey</u>: I give bonuses to catchers, but Mackey’s prime and peak are not high enough. I have Mackey behind all the catchers we have elected and Trouppe.
<u>Redding</u>: I need to reexamine his thread again. I think he is among the top 6/7 pitchers available and would not be disappointed in his election.
<u>Van Haltren</u>: Lots of years over 25 win shares once schedule adjustments are made. However, the 1890s were the decade with the most outfielders among the best players in the league. He doesn’t rank highly enough among his position. I have him behind all the elected center fielders and 3 other eligibles. His peak is weaker than all above him and his prime is at the bottom.

<u>26-30: Edd Roush, Roger Bresnahan, Larry Doyle, George Sisler, Luke Easter</u>.
<u>George Sisler</u>: Prime is not high enough to balance the not-great career. Does anyone have his home-road splits? Sportsman’s Park was such a great hitters park. I see him as a better Jimmy Ryan. A great first half of a career, but not enough in the second half.

<u>31-35: Clark Griffith, Joe Gordon, Cool Papa Bell, Rube Waddell, Herman Long</u>:
<u>Griffith</u>: Did not have the big years that his contemporaries did. Maybe that is why he had a longer career, but he definitely lacks the big years of Young, Nichols, Rusie, or McGinnity.
<u>Bell</u>: He suffers from the same difficulties as Beckley, except he was quite a bit better. Long career, but no peak and a low prime.

<u>Bobby Doerr</u>: In the late 40s. I am not as impressed with his defense as BPro or any LW formula is. I think his offensive numbers are incredibly overated. Fenway Park in the 1940s is not quite Colorado or 1930s Phillies, but that park is extremely hitter friendly.

<u>Jake Beckley</u>: About 135th: Will never make my ballot. No peak. Did not dominate the period between great first basemen. Best in majors only 2 times. Best in league only 1 more time. If he was the best position player on the team, the team would be lucky to be mediocre. That is not a HoMer.

<u>Nellie F</u>ox: In the low 40s. I see Childs, Doyle, and Gordon as better qualified and perhaps Scales and Monroe. I see him as better than Doerr. I am open to reconsidering him. His peak, prime, and per year numbers do not compare to the elected second basemen. His career is only at the bottom of those elected.

<u>Roy Sievers</u>: About 145th: Strange career path. Not a high enough peak or prime or long enough career.
   71. Kelly in SD Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:11 PM (#1886133)
Things are going very well, but I don't see a lot of free time for research in the next few months. I am still finding time to keep up on everyone's posts. I love the recent debates in the Koufax and Fox threads.
   72. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#1886148)
A little early this week :-)

1. Warren Spahn SP (1) - Arguably the greatest LHP in the history of the game. Very easy number one this week. The only thing I'd add is that he's got quite a peak too, would have won the NL Cy Young 5 times if it had existed throughout his career.
2. Jake Beckley 1B (3) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.
3. Gavy Cravath RF (4) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
4. Luke Easter 1B (5) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
5. Billy Pierce SP (6) - What's not to like. Prospectus has him translated at 243-144 (and he had 32 saves). He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. I could see Mike Mussina ending up like Pierce historically.
6. Ralph Kiner LF (7) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
7. Charley Jones LF (8) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
8. Bucky Walters SP (9) - I was underrating him. According to RSI he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call.
9. Phil Rizzuto SS (10) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously.
10. Nellie Fox 2B (n/e) - Very good peak. Great defense. Relatively long career at a key defensive position. I'm a big fan of this kind of player.
11. Clark Griffith SP (11) - What exactly is it that separates McGinnity or Three-Finger Brown from Griffith?
12. George Van Haltren CF (12) - He could rank anywhere from 1 to 22, very tough to evaluate.
13. Cool Papa Bell CF (13) - Awful lot of career value there. Gets a bump this week. I think I had him a little low, given the potential for error in rating Negro Leaguers based on translations, I'm erring a little more on the side of reputation.
14. Virgil Trucks SP (14) - Hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him between Ruffing and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here. I overrated him just a little last time, Lemon and Walters have significantly higher peak with similar career value.
15. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (15) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
   73. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#1886149)
Congratulations, Kelly!
   74. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:20 PM (#1886151)
Yes, congrats, Kelly!

Honorable Mention:

16. Joe Gordon 2B (16) - Lost two prime years, was cranking out 9-11 WARP1 seasons annually (1939-43) before military service.
17. Minnie Minoso LF (17) - Still not sure what to make of his extra credit. I can't see him being lower than this. Career track somewhat similar to Will Clark. Great player from the start of his career, very good player for the rest, and career ends rather early.
18. Vern Stephens SS (18) - I love shortstops that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Better than Doerr IMO.
19. Bobby Doerr 2B (19) - Too close to call w/Gordon right now.
20. Dutch Leonard SP (20) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
21. Willard Brown LF (41) - Moving him up some after reconsidering him based on the recent Negro League Hall of Fame election.
22. Dobie Moore SS (21) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. But I've been convinced that he played enough (the level of play was never in quesiton) that I should move him way up compared with where I had him. This is similar to where I've put Hughie Jennings in the past.
23. Bill Monroe 2B (22) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
24. Ernie Lombardi C (23) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
25. Biz Mackey C (24) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
26. Jimmy Ryan OF (25) - Could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
27. Wally Schang C (26) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
28. George Sisler 1B (27) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
29. Bob Elliott 3B (28) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
30. Dizzy Trout SP (29) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
31. Tommy Bridges SP (30) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
32. Quincy Trouppe C (31) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
33. Joe Sewell SS/3B (32) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
34. Urban Shocker SP (33) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
35. Burleigh Grimes SP (34) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
36. Dick Redding SP (35) - I see him just a little behind Grimes.
37. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (36) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
38. Bob Johnson LF (37) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
39. Dom DiMaggio CF (38) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
40. Ed Williamson 3B (39) - Still on the board after 70+ years.
41. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (40) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
42. Jose Mendez SP (--) - Putting him back on the ballot after his recent election to the Hall of Fame caused me to reconsider his case. I think there's a very reasonable case to put him slightly ahead of Waddell.
43. Rube Waddell SP (42) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
44. Ben Taylor 1B (50) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is. Gets a slight bump.
45. Walker Cooper C (43) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
46. Lave Cross 3B (44) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. Enormous career value. Superb defender at important position(s).
47. Mike Griffin CF (45) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
48. Hugh Duffy OF (46) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan. I just don't see why some people like him so much. What makes him any better than Griffin? Griffin was on base more, and was a better fielder. Griffin had almost as much power. I just don't see it. If Duffy didn't have about 2 seasons on Griffin, he wouldn't be this close.
49. Cupid Childs 2B (47) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, much shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, as Schoendienst is making me re-evaluate the infielders.
50. Edd Roush CF (48) - Weak league hurts him.
51. Larry Gardner 3B (49) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
52. Pie Traynor 3B (51) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Could move significantly higher once I get a better handle on this.
53. Mel Harder SP (52) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
54. Billy Nash 3B (53) - Similar to Traynor, better glove, less pop.
55. Vic Willis SP (54) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
56. Red Schoendienst 2B (55) - Good player, very nice peak from 1952-54. About equal as a hitter to someone like Concepcion or Campaneris, but they played SS, not 2B. Can't see any way to rank him ahead of someone like Larry Gardner, Billy Nash, Pie Traynor, Cupid Childs, etc.. So I bumped the others, since I don't think Schoendienst should be lower than this.
57. Bobo Newsom SP (56) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
58. Dick Lundy SS (57) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
59. Mickey Welch SP (58) - I should not have completely dropped him from consideration. I think he was a good pitcher, not a great one.
60. Don Newcombe SP (59) - Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see anyway possible to rank him ahead of Mel Harder. I think this is probably too high.
61. Bobby Avila 2B (60) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
62. Charlie Keller LF (61) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.
63. John McGraw 3B (62) - One helluva player - when he could stay on the field. More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
63. Dizzy Dean SP (63) - Great pitcher for a couple years. Too bad his career was cut short.
64. Lefty Gomez SP (63) - Quite comparable to Dean. Similar career value, Dean had the higher peak.
65. Tommy Henrich RF (64) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
66. Alvin Dark SS (65) - Shortstops that can hit league average are a valuable commodity.
67. Alejandro Oms OF (66) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
68. George Scales SS (67) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
69. Mickey Vernon 1B (68) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
70. Addie Joss SP (69) - Not very durable in season, short career. Great whenever he was on the field. Similar to John McGraw in that respect.
71. Pete Browning CF (70) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation. The bat was great, the D was awful and the career was short.
72. Gil Hodges 1B (71) - I don't see how he can be ranked above Vernon.
73. Larry Doyle 2B (72) - Another good pre-Ruth 2B, but he wasn't very good defensively, and the position wasn't even difficult at the time. I see him as similar as a hitter to Bob Elliott through 1950. He should be compared to post-war 3B, not 2B. He wasn't as good as Elliott defensively either.
74. Eddie Yost 3B (73) - Very good player, that OBP was amazing, +.051 vs. league average, despite hitting just .254 for his career. Bad D at 3B though, and not much power.
75. Sherm Lollar C (74) - Good player, somewhat forgotten by history. Catcher bonus gets him on the ballot.
   75. EricC Posted: March 06, 2006 at 11:44 PM (#1886173)
1971 ballot. Didn't mean to procrastinate so much. Low debuts of Minoso and Pierce
in 1970 ensures that we'll be electing a number of backloggers in the 1970s.

1. Warren Spahn - No other pitcher led his league in complete games more than 6 times. Spahn led seven times in a row . No other pitcher was in the top 3 of league innings pitched more than 10 times. Spahn was in the top 3 13 years in a row . Once every generation or so, a pitcher comes along who pushes the limits of possible career performance in one way or another. Spahn was one such pitcher.

2. Wally Schang - Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, in an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.

3. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s.

4. Joe Gordon -
5. Bobby Doerr -
WWII credit for both, discount for war years, especially 1944. So close that there's no easily identifiable factor why Gordon ends up higher.

6. Gil Hodges - For strength of the 1950s NL and for being the best or among the best 1B throughout his prime.

7. Charlie Keller - Win Shares peak overcomes short career; WWII credit. A good test case for examining whether WS unfairly benefits players on good teams.

8. Cool Papa Bell - Long career, low peak, perhaps like Sam Rice with the bat, but with outstanding speed.

9. Jose Mendez - Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; perhaps a slightly better version of Lefty Gomez.

10. Billy Pierce - A reevaluation of pitcher ratings is long overdue. I am rating the mid-20th C pitchers a little too high and the early 20th C pitchers a little too low. Not that I'm overrating Spahn by having him #1.

11. Nellie Fox - WS likes him, WARP doesn't. High ratings for IF in my system overcomes questions about league strength to put him on ballot.

12. Sam Rice - WWI credit gets him to around 3180 career hits in spite of not playing until age 25 and not being a regular until age 27.

13. Tommy Bridges - 2nd-most runs saved above average of all pitchers eligible for Cooperstown, behind Blyleven. A career that's underappreciated because of relatively low numbers of IP per season in his later years.

14. Biz Mackey - One of the greatest NeL catchers.

15. Red Schoendienst - A little below PHoM cutoff, actually, but among the
top 2B in the 40-year span between Gehringer and Morgan.

Griffith, Van Haltren, and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s P, OF, and IF.

Sisler was a good player, but because of his injury, his prime wasn't quite long/strong enough for me.

Willard Brown was one of the top NeL hitters of the 1940s. I look forward to the coming
NeL statistical encyclopedia to see whether I may be underrating him.

Redding was a fine player, but I'd elect Mendez and Byrd before him.
   76. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 07, 2006 at 12:23 AM (#1886194)
My ballot will come before the dealine. It's delayed more by indecision than laziness.
   77. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 07, 2006 at 12:57 AM (#1886214)
Since Devin has notified me that he will post his ballot, I'll allow it if he's few minutes late (since it wont affect the outcome).
   78. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: March 07, 2006 at 12:58 AM (#1886216)
Sorry, no explanations this week. Everybody in the top 10 has been discussed on one of my previous ballots.

Fox doesn’t measure up to Doerr or Gordon to me. They came close to his career value in less time; they were both much better hitters than he was, and if worse fielders, not much worse.

PHoM this year is Spahn and er, ah, ugh, I don’t know…Minoso.

1. Warren Spahn
2. Tommy Leach
3. Bill Monroe
4. Willard Brown
5. Joe Sewell
6. Dobie Moore
7. Quincy Trouppe
8. Cupid Childs
9. Minnie Minoso
10. George Van Haltren
11. Bobby Doerr
12. Dick Redding
13. Gavvy Cravath
14. Bob Johnson
15. Bus Clarkson
   79. OCF Posted: March 07, 2006 at 12:58 AM (#1886219)
Where's DanG? He and Devin are the only last-year's voters who haven't checked in yet.
   80. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 07, 2006 at 01:04 AM (#1886225)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

As for Dan, I sent him an e-mail, but no answer from him.
   81. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: March 07, 2006 at 01:06 AM (#1886230)
I checked the discussion thread, but nothing there either, saying to use this, etc.
   82. DanG Posted: March 07, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#1886485)
Hi. I knew I shoulda voted early, but I was deliberating about Fox's placement. Then I was out of the office Friday and Monday, then I never got online over the weekend...well, it was bound to happen sometime. First one I've missed. Glad to see Griffith made it anyway.

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