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Hall of Merit — A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best Monday, March 20, 20061972 Results: Roberts, Koufax, and Doerr are the Latest of the Greatest Now in the Hall!In his first year of eligibility, “Whiz Kid” Robin Roberts scored 95% of all possible points to win induction to the Hall of Merit. Another newbie, Dodger great Sandy Koufax, also achieved immortality by earning 54% of all possible points. The last inductee, BoSox star second baseman Bobby Doerr, finally gained admission to the HoM in his 16th year of eligibility. He earned 33% of all possible points. Our first election with 50 ballots since the 1950s! Rounding out the top-ten were: Biz Mackey, Cool Papa Bell, Willard Brown, George Van Haltren, George Sisler, Joe Gordon, and Cannonball Dick Redding. RK LY Player PTS Bal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 n/e Robin Roberts 1136 50 42 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 n/e Sandy Koufax 652 39 2 9 7 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 3 4 Bobby Doerr 394 29 2 5 3 1 3 1 1 6 2 2 3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 3 Biz Mackey 383 30 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 3 1 4 3 5 6 Cool Papa Bell 369 25 1 4 1 2 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 6 5 Willard Brown 354 25 1 2 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 7 9 George Van Haltren 341 23 1 7 1 1 3 2 3 3 1 1 8 7 George Sisler 326 25 1 1 4 2 4 1 2 1 4 1 1 1 2 9 10 Joe Gordon 316 27 1 3 3 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 1 2 5 10 8 Cannonball Dick Redding 308 22 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 14 Minnie Minoso 287 25 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 5 4 1 12 13 Dobie Moore 272 17 2 4 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 13 15 Jake Beckley 263 17 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 1 14 12 José Méndez 262 19 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 1 15 18 Hugh Duffy 258 18 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 16 11 Ralph Kiner 250 20 1 2 5 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 17T 19 Cupid Childs 223 17 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 17T 17 Joe Sewell 223 17 1 2 4 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 19 16 Pete Browning 206 14 1 2 3 1 4 2 1 20 21 Billy Pierce 185 17 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 4 1 21 22 Bucky Walters 185 14 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 22 23 Mickey Welch 181 12 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 23 20 Rube Waddell 168 14 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 24 34 Tommy Leach 162 14 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 25 26 Nellie Fox 160 13 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 1 26 24 Charley Jones 153 10 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 27 28 Quincy Trouppe 150 13 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 28 30 Edd Roush 148 10 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 29T 27 Gavy Cravath 139 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 29T 25 Alejandro Oms 139 11 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 31 29 Roger Bresnahan 135 11 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 32 31 Bob Elliott 112 11 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 33 35 Larry Doyle 111 7 2 1 1 1 1 1 34 33 Bob Johnson 107 9 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 35 32 Burleigh Grimes 97 8 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 36 36 Wally Schang 82 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 37 37 Charlie Keller 67 4 1 2 1 38 38 John McGraw 66 4 1 1 1 1 39 39 Dizzy Dean 57 6 1 2 1 1 1 40 43T Pie Traynor 51 4 1 2 1 41 40T Dizzy Trout 42 4 2 1 1 42 45 Fielder Jones 40 3 1 1 1 43 43T Luke Easter 39 2 1 1 44 40T Addie Joss 35 4 1 1 1 1 45 49 Phil Rizzuto 35 3 1 1 1 46 50 Ben Taylor 35 2 1 1 47T 48 Bill Monroe 34 3 1 1 1 47T 55T Jimmy Ryan 34 3 1 1 1 49 52 Ernie Lombardi 34 2 1 1 50T 47 Tommy Bridges 33 3 1 1 1 50T 51 Frank Chance 33 3 1 2 52 53 Chuck Klein 31 3 1 1 1 53 42 Vic Willis 30 3 1 1 1 54 46 Vern Stephens 29 2 1 1 55 55T Ed Williamson 27 3 1 1 1 56 54 Carl Mays 26 3 1 1 1 57 58T Tony Mullane 25 2 1 1 58 68T Dutch Leonard 23 3 1 2 59 55T Sam Rice 23 2 1 1 60 60 Ed Cicotte 22 2 1 1 61 58T Gil Hodges 19 2 1 1 62 61 Rabbit Maranville 18 2 1 1 63T 73T Dom DiMaggio 17 2 1 1 63T 62 Fred Dunlap 17 2 1 1 65 63 Johnny Pesky 17 1 1 66 73T Lefty Gomez 15 2 1 1 67 66T Tetelo Vargas 14 1 1 68 71 Tommy Bond 13 1 1 69T 68T Sam Leever 12 1 1 69T 66T Bobby Veach 12 1 1 71 64T Red Schoendienst 11 1 1 72 68T Artie Wilson 10 1 1 73T 64T Bus Clarkson 9 1 1 73T 72 Wilbur Cooper 9 1 1 73T n/e Bob Friend 9 1 1 76 75T Virgil Trucks 8 1 1 77T 75T Herman Long 7 1 1 77T 75T Spot Poles 7 1 1 79T n/e Dave Bancroft 6 1 1 79T 75T Hack Wilson 6 1 1 79T 75T Mickey Vernon 6 1 1 Ballots Cast: 50
John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy
Posted: March 20, 2006 at 02:34 AM | 75 comment(s)
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 21, 2006 at 01:03 AM (#1909185)Boy, was Doerr lucky! But since he allowed me to have two candidates on my ballot to be enshrined for this election, I'm not complaining. :-)
Because it was the elect-me-bonus-at-#3 that made the difference?
Congrats to the three inductees.
No, David. Our new voter rawagman was the difference. If he hadn't jonied us, Doerr would have lost to Mackey by two points!
I would also include Van Haltren since has those 7 third place votes to work with.
HOF-not-HOM through 1972
1. Bancroft, Dave
2. Beckley, Jake
3 Bender, Chief
4 Bresnahan, Roger
5 Chance, Frank
6 Chesbro, Jack
7 Combs, Earle
8 Cuyler, Kiki
9 Dean, Dizzy
10 Duffy, Hugh
11 Evers, Johnny
12 Gomez, Lefty
13 Grimes, Burleigh
14 Hafey, Chick
15 Haines, Jesse
16 Hooper, Harry
17 Hoyt, Waite
18 Manush, Heinie
19 Maranville, Rabbit
20 Marquard, Rube
21 McCarthy, Tommy
22 McGraw, John
23 Pennock, Herb
24 Rice, Sam
25 Roush, Edd
26 Schalk, Ray
27 Sisler, George
28 Tinker, Joe
29 Traynor, Pie
30 Waddell, Rube
31 Waner, Lloyd
32 Youngs, Ross
And HOM not-HOF
1 Ashburn, Richie
2 Averill, Earl
3 Barnes, Ross
4 Beckwith, John
5 Bennett, Charlie
6 Brown, Ray
7 Caruthers, Bob
8 Charleston, Oscar
9 Connor, Roger
10 Dahlen, Bill
11 Davis, George
12 Dihigo, Martin
13 Doby, Larry
14 Doerr, Bobby
15 Ferrell, Wes
16 Foster, Rube
17 Foster, Willie
18 Glasscock, Jack
19 Gore, George
20 Grant, Frank
21 Groh, Heinie
22 Hack, Stan
23 Herman, Billy
24 Hill, Pete
25 Hines, Paul
26 Irvin, Monte
27 Jackson, Joe*
28 Johnson, Home Run
29 Lemon, Bob
30 Lloyd, John Henry
31 Magee, Sherry
32 McPhee, Bid
33 McVey, Cal
34 Mize, Johnny
35 Newhouser, Hal
36 Pearce, Dickey
37 Pike, Lip
38 Richardson, Hardy
39 Reese, Pee Wee
40 Roberts, Robin
41 Rogan, Bullet Joe
42 Rusie, Amos
43 Santop, Louis
44 Sheckard, Jimmy
45 Slaughter, Enos
46 Snider, Duke
47 Spahn, Warren
48 Start, Joe
49 Stearnes, Turkey
50 Stovey, Harry
51 Suttles, Mule
52 Sutton, Ezra
53 Thompson, Sam
54 Torriente, Cristobal
55 Vaughan, Arky
56 Wells, Willie
57 White, Deacon
58 Williams, Smokey Joe
59 Wilson, Jud
* not eligible for the HOF
TOP 25, ALL-TIME
VAN HALTREN 19447.5
BECKLEY 18327
Griffith 17924
DUFFY 17910.5
Jennings 16976
BROWNING 15779.5
CHILDS 13714
WADDELL 13500
Pike 13399
WELCH 13168
Thompson 12349
Bennett 11503
RYAN 11101.5
SISLER 10937
Rixey 10826
Caruthers 10704
Beckwith 9896
H Stovey 9576
TLEACH 8971
BRESNAHAN 8970
CJONES 8409
Start 8378.5
SEWELL 8360
McGinnity 8232
Pearce 8073
OTHERS IN THE TOP 25 ACTIVE
(Mackey 7749, Redding 7463, Mendez 7051, CP Bell 6517, Roush 5925, Monroe 5796, Doyle 5740, Moore 5296, Williamson 4816, Cravath 4435, Grimes 4323, Schang 4044)
ALMOST
(McGraw 3905, WBrown 3680)
But amazingly none of them is Jose Mendez, who is stuck in the teens.
Get on the bus with the FOJM!!!!
Koufax 652 points on 39 ballots.
Redding 308 points on 22 ballots.
Mendez 262 points on 19 ballots.
The HOM just elected a pitcher, Sandy Koufax, who looks a LOT like Jose Mendez. BIG peak/prime, with little pitching outside of it. But Mendez had more good shoulder years and also has a bat plus played as a utility infielder a few years. Post-season? Mendez has that in spades given his amazing performance in the NgLWS where his arm was in roughly the same condition as Koufax's was in 1966.
I think that some folks may be held back by a lack of documentation for Mendez. In which case I would remind everyone that the documentation for Mendez has increased since his candidacy started 35 years ago. Gary A's careful research of several years worth of Cuban records for Mendez has revealed that Mendez pitched extremely well against MLB guys in Cuba, in addition to utterly dominating the island. And of course, he did very well in his stateside barnstorming trips as well.
I'm not saying that the Hall of Fame's election alone should sway a voter, but it only adds to the luster of Mendez, and it lends credence to the idea that Mendez was a HOM-level pitcher. Anyone who votes for Dick Redding and Sandy Koufax should be voting for Jose Mendez because Mendez has Koufax's peak and he has better documentation, especially against big-leaguers, than Redding does. For that matter he is documented to have pitched better than Redding who, though he suffered from poor support, was still pegged at a lower DERA/win pct than Mendez. In fact, I would encourage anyone who voted for Koufax and not Mendez to strongly consider a vote for Jose.
I say this, because I believe Koufax was probably as good as any pitcher who has ever pitched in the Major Leagues, when in his prime. And I would guess that most people who voted him in the top two would agree with me.
Elsewhere you said that, in your opinion, Johnson and Grove had equally great peak/primes to Koufax. Just for a little extra leavening, perhaps one of Maddux, Clemens, RJ, or Pedro may have had a similarly outstanding peak/prime.
The greatest pitchers in the Negro Leagues are Foster, Foster, Williams, Paige, Brown in no particular order (and I'm sure I'm missing someone, this is off the top of my head). As I rank them (based on Chris's MLEs and adjusted for usage in a similar way I adjust all SP), I see their peaks as
Brown
.
Mendez
Williams/Paige
R Foster/Rogan
.
B Foster/Redding
So I see him as the second-best peak pitcher in Negro League history but closer to third than first. Given the presence of Wes Ferrell and other peak/prime guys in combination with Koufax, Mendez needn't be the greatest ever in peak/prime to be a HOMer.
Koufax went in very easily, Doerr just slipped in. If Mendez's peak is relatively comparable to Koufax's, or to Ferrell's, then he should go in easily between Doerr and Koufax. The distance between Doerr's and Koufax's support is pretty wide (10 ballots), so even having a peak/prime that's substantially similar but not quite as good as Koufax's would be strongly suggestive that Mendez should be HOMed.
Name Votes PCT
Sandy Koufax 344 86.87
Yogi Berra 339 85.61
Early Wynn 301 76.01
Ralph Kiner 235 59.34
Gil Hodges 161 40.66
Johnny Mize 157 39.65
Enos Slaughter 149 37.63
Pee Wee Reese 129 32.58
Marty Marion 120 30.30
Bob Lemon 117 29.55
George Kell 115 29.04
Allie Reynolds 105 26.52
Red Schoendienst 104 26.26
Phil Rizzuto 103 26.01
Hal Newhouser 92 23.23
Duke Snider 84 21.21
Nellie Fox 64 16.16
Phil Cavarretta 61 15.40
Alvin Dark 55 13.89
Dom DiMaggio 36 9.09
Bobo Newsom 31 7.83
Charlie Keller 24 6.06
Johnny Sain 21 5.30
Mickey Vernon 12 3.03
Richie Ashburn 11 2.78
Ted Kluszewski 10 2.53
Bobby Thomson 10 2.53
Harvey Haddix 9 2.27
Roy McMillan 9 2.27
Bobby Shantz 9 2.27
Walker Cooper 8 2.02
Bobby Richardson 8 2.02
Don Newcombe 7 1.77
Harry Brecheen 5 1.26
Dutch Leonard 5 1.26
Carl Erskine 4 1.01
Gil McDougald 4 1.01
Billy Pierce 4 1.01
Vic Raschi 4 1.01
Vic Wertz 4 1.01
Vic Power 3 0.76
Roy Sievers 3 0.76
Carl Furillo 2 0.51
Ed Lopat 2 0.51
Preacher Roe 2 0.51
Jackie Jensen 1 0.25
Larry Doby 0 0.00
HOMers in bold.
Robin Roberts must not have been eligible in 1972 for BBWAA.
He got 56% of the vote in 1973.
Johnny Vander Meer and Bobby Doerr were retired to the VC after 1971.
Stephens hit just as well (if not better) than Doerr and played SS, not 2B.
I know Doerr's career was about 3 years longer, but still I would think SS vs. 2B in terms of defense would make up for 3 for about 1400 extra PA (which gives Doerr a full season of war credit).
I've got them #18 and #19 on my ballot, I don't see how our group has such a wide disparity between them.
21. Rizzuto
23. Gordon
27. Stephens
28. Doerr
Yes, I do think plucking Doerr out of that group and electing him was a mistake.
Anyone else in the top ten who hasn't been inducted that anyone feels strongly against? Anyone out there who compares favorably to Mackey, CPBell, WBrown, Van Haltren, etc who really should be getting more support? These arguments work better before the election is over.
I think that Trouppe was the better player than Mackey, though I must admit I dont' know if Mackey was a HOMer or not.
I think that Duffy is superior to GVH, much better peak and no slouch on career either (though GVH is on my ballot)
I have owrries about Brown's ability to hit in MLB (had he been white) because he displayed so little patience and think that his fielding was probably only average at best. I would rather see Kiner, Keller, or Browning make it as hitters.
Sisler is on my ballot and my top 1B and Redding in in my PHOM AND my top backlog pitcher. Gordon was slightly better than Doerr, I believe, though I can see it either way. My top MIer is Cupid Childs, then Dobie Moore.
Those are my arguments.
We're short of 3Bmen. Leach would help, Sewell is 1/4th 3B, McGraw is both a 3B guy AND an under-represented 1890s guy.
Not sure I understand the placement of Redding over Mendez. Maybe the Redding supporters are quieter? I thought Mendez support would rise last week as a Koufax compariosn. But it didn't. Not sure why.
I believe we are underrating live ball pitchers in general. Can someone post a % chart (pitcher, C/infield, 1B/OF inductees) for those whose primes/careers were primarily 1920 onward? I believe it will be instructive. Especially because our top backlogger in this category is 20th, which means many will put only Whitey Ford, if even him, as a liveball hurler next week.
Ford, Grimes, and Walters will be on my ballot next week.
What would you like from other positions?
I try not to post a mountain of stuff too often, but the pitching discussions seem to make this one ok at this time.
HOM Ps, by year, through 1972 election, since 1920. Must have pitched 1 IP per G or 35 G and mainly this position to be listed (occasionally a guy about an inning short gets listed anyway):
1868-76 (1) - Spalding
1877
1878 (1) - Ward
1879 (2) - Ward Galvin
1880 (3) - Ward Galvin Keefe
1881-83 (4) - Ward Galvin Keefe Radbourn
1884 (4) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson
1855-88 (5) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers
1889 (6) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers Rusie
1890 (8) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers Rusie Young Nichols
1891 (9) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers Rusie Young Nichols Griffith
1892 (6) - Galvin Keefe Clarkson Rusie Young Nichols
1893 (5) - Keefe Clarkson Rusie Young Nichols
1894 (5) - Clarkson Rusie Young Nichols Griffith
1895 (5) - Rusie Young Nichols Griffith Wallace
1896 (4) - Young Nichols Griffith Wallace
1897-98 (4) - Rusie Young Nichols Griffith
1899-00 (4) - Young Nichols Griffith McGinnity
1901 (6) - Young Nichols Griffith McGinnity Plank Mathewson
1902 (6) - Young Griffith McGinnity Plank Mathewson RFoster
1903 (7) - Young Griffith McGinnity Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown
1904-05 (7) - Young Nichols McGinnity Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown
1906-07 (7) - Young McGinnity Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh
1908 (8) - Young McGinnity Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh WJohnson
1909 (7) - Young Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh WJohnson
1910 (8) - Young Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh WJohnson Williams
1911 (8) - Plank Mathewson RFoster Brown Walsh WJohnson Williams Alexander
1912 (9) - Plank Mathewson RFoster Brown Walsh WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey
1913 (8) - Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey
1914 (8) - Plank Mathewson RFoster TF BrownW Johnson Williams Alexander Faber
1915 (10) - Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Ruth
1916 (9) - Plank Foster WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Ruth Covaleski
1917 (7) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Ruth Covaleski
1918 (3) - WJohnson Williams Covaleski
1919 (6) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski
1920 (5) - Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski
1921 (7) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan
1922-23 (8) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance
1924 (9) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance Lyons
1925 (11) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing
1926 (12) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster
1927 (11) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige
1928 (11) - Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige
1929 (12) - Williams Rixey Faber Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell
1930 (11) - Williams Rixey Faber Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell
1931 (10) - Williams Faber Vance Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown
1932 (11) - Williams Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Dihigo
1933 (9) - Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Dihigo
1934 (8) - Lyons Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Dihigo
1935 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Hubbell Ferrell RBrown (Dihigo)
1936 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown (Dihigo)
1937 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Hubbell Ferrell RBrown
1938 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Feller
1939-40 (6) - Lyons Grove Ruffing Hubbell RBrown Feller
1941 (7) - Lyons Ruffing Paige Hubbell RBrown Feller Newhouser
1942 (7) - Lyons Ruffing Paige Hubbell RBrown Newhouser Wynn
1943-44 (3) - Paige RBrown Newhouser Wynn
1945 (3) - Paige RBrown Newhouser
1946 (3) - Paige Feller Newhouser
1947 (6) - Paige Feller Newhouser Wynn Spahn Lemon
1948 (5) - Feller Newhouser Wynn Spahn Lemon
1949-50 (5) - Feller Newhouser Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1951 (5) - Feller Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1952 (7) - Paige Feller Newhouser Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1953 (6) - Paige Feller Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1954 (4) - Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1955 (4) - Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1956 (4) - Wynn Spahn Lemon Roberts
1957 (3) - Wynn Spahn Roberts
1958 (4) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Koufax
1959 (4) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Koufax
1960 (4) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Koufax
1961 (2) - Spahn Koufax
1962 (3) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Koufax
1963 (3) - Spahn Roberts Koufax
1964 (3) - Spahn Roberts Koufax
1965 (2) - Spahn Roberts Koufax
1966 (1) - Koufax
Van Haltren would be 1887-88; 1890
Welch would be 1880-91
Waddell would be 1900-09
Mendez would be 1908-14, very roughly
Redding would be 1911-30, roughly
Grimes would be 1917-31
Walters would be 1936-45
Pierce would be 1949-62
Redding is our only pure P among the top 10 returnees.
The other Ps in the top returning 35 are ranked 11 (Mendez), 17-20 (Pierce, Walters, Welch, Waddell), and 32 (Grimes).
Then from 1935 on and I'm not sure we know why that is. Obviously WWII saw a big drop and there's nothing we can do about that, though if you included pitchers who are getting WWII XC in those years the gap would probably go away. But beginning in 1954 we are in a serious hurtbag and it's hard to believe that Pierce is our only salvation. Well, that does not include some guys still coming eligible like Whitey "Mudball" Ford.
Is there a pitcher from the '90s yet that anybody wants to advocate for?
I will advocate for Redding, he is in my PHoM. Who besides "Ol' Stubblebeard" is there?
I will certainly advocate for "Ol' Mudball," but who besides Pierce is there?
The next guys on our list are Dean, Trout, Joss, Willis, Bridges, Mays, Mullane, Leonard, Gomez, Bond. Not all of course address our gaps.
One new voter - rawagman. Two voters returning from more than 5 years absence: James Newburg and Tiboreau. Two 1971 voters didn't vote in 1972: Max Parkinson and caspian 88.
It's clear that we're gone to have a number of wide-open backlog elections with razor-thin margins; the question of exactly who does and doesn't vote is likely to be decisive in some cases.
Average consensus score: -6.7, which makes it just another year.
Howie Menckel: 0
DanG: 0
TomH: 0
Rob Wood: -1
Rusty Priske: -1
Brent: -1
Pedro Feliz Navidad: -1
Ken Fischer: -1
...
Chris Cobb: -3
...
sunnyday2: -5
jimd: -5
Daryn: -6
(median)
Sean Gilman: -6
rawagman: -6
Mark Donelson: -6
...
OCF: -7
...
Dolf Lucky: -12
John Murphy: -13
Dr. Chaleeko: -13
Joe Dimino: -15
karlmagnus: -17
Gadfly: -17
KJOK: -18
Jim Sp: -19
yest: -19
*************
Hmmn sunnyday - not sure about the taking a week off to discuss pitchers idea. I'm open to be convinced either way, if someone thinks there is a need.
I think we've done a pretty good job of electing the second tier position players, guys like Doerr . . . but I think we've done a terrible job with getting a few extra non-no-brainer pitchers, guys like Pierce and Walters.
Basically, if didn't throw 4500 innings, you need to have been arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a few years or you don't get in. That's an awfully high standard - one that guys like Doerr, Terry, Hack, Reese, Wheat and a few others haven't been held to.
I'm not saying I disagree with all of those selections or anything, but I can't think of any similar type pitchers, maybe Griffith and Coveleski, but that'd be about it. Ferrell is more of a short career high peak type.
What we're missing are the 2800-3500 IP pitchers who were consistently very good, without being great type of pitchers. I don't see why they are any less valuable than the 7000-8500 PA hitters who were never strong MVP candidates for a 3-year stretch.
>I think we've done a pretty good job of electing the second tier position players, guys like Doerr . . . but I think we've done a terrible job with getting a few extra non-no-brainer pitchers, guys like Pierce and Walters.
I see this little excursion (an off-week "demonstration election" with ballots consisting entirely of pitchers but no one gets actually elected) as an opportunity to build consensus if that is possible. I mean, neither Walters nor Pierce has been on my ballot. If filling out a ballot with 15 pitchers makes me re-look at them, great.
What low-peak hitters with less than 8500 PA are we inducting that aren't 2B-SS-C types?
I count 54 pitchers between 1890 and 1967 who have between 2800-3500 IP.
HOM-ers (8):
EWalsh, TFBrown, Coveleski, Vance, Newhouser, Lemon, Griffith, McGinnity
Active Candidates (4):
Pierce, Walters, Waddell, Ford
Also Getting Votes (5):
Bridges, CMays, DLeonard, Ciccotte, WCooper
Future Strong Candidates (2) :
Drysdale, Bunning
ThreadWorthy (4):
Luque, BAdams, MHarder, CSimmons (at least this week)
Notable HOF-but-not-HOM-ers (4) :
Bender, Haines, Chesbro, Marquard
Off-the-radar (27):
DocWhite, Sallee, Shawkey, French, Fitzsimmons, Root, Zachary, Ames, LJackson,
Hawley, Breitenstein, BLee, Dickson, Kennedy, Burdette, Donovan, Hadley, Uhle, Ehmke, Dineen, Dauss, Meadows, Bush, Orth, Weyhing, Donahue, CFraser
I wouldn't call Pierce and Walters low peak at all. Walters has a heckuva peak, especially when you throw in his hitting.
But by the way these guys are being judged low peak means, not the best or arguably best player/pitcher in baseball for a 3-year stretch (that's the only definition one could have of Pierce or Walters that would be considered low peak).
So to answer the question:
Bill Terry
Heinie Groh
Earl Averill
Sam Thompson
Larry Doby
Adding in the SS/2B (not sure why they should be excluded)
Bobby Doerr
Hardy Richardson
Lou Boudreau
There aren't any catchers that would qualify under this definition - we haven't elected a catcher that didn't have a huge peak or a long career for a catcher.
That's 8 position players under the medium career length - medium peak strength mold.
The only pitchers I can see that fit that are Stan Coveleski and Clark Griffith.
If we are calling guys like Terry, Averill, Doby and Groh peak candidates and electing them based on that peak, I think we need to lower our standards just a notch on what peak is required of pitchers of a similar career length.
David asked:
"What low-peak hitters with less than 8500 PA are we inducting that aren't 2B-SS-C types?"
Joe responded:
I wouldn't call Pierce and Walters low peak at all. Walters has a heckuva peak, especially when you throw in his hitting. But by the way these guys are being judged low peak means, not the best or arguably best player/pitcher in baseball for a 3-year stretch (that's the only definition one could have of Pierce or Walters that would be considered low peak).
I find the statements about Walters confusing. I think Walters was clearly the best pitcher in the National League from 1939-1941. In the AL, Feller may have been better. If Waltrs is not making it, there may be other reasons for it.
Joe then provides a list of players who fit the medium-peak, no more than 8500 AB category:
So to answer the question:
Bill Terry
Heinie Groh
Earl Averill
Sam Thompson
Larry Doby
Adding in the SS/2B (not sure why they should be excluded)
Bobby Doerr
Hardy Richardson
Lou Boudreau
There aren't any catchers that would qualify under this definition - we haven't elected a catcher that didn't have a huge peak or a long career for a catcher.
That's 8 position players under the medium career length - medium peak strength mold.
The only pitchers I can see that fit that are Stan Coveleski and Clark Griffith.
If there are 8 position players elected with this profile, then the number of pitchers who share this profile in the HoM depends in part on what one thinks the ratio of pitchers to position players should be, a point on which the electorate is not in agreement. Someone who sees that the number of "Arms" should equal the number of "Bats" and the number of "Gloves" would say we are two pitchers short, and I don't think anyone is saying we would have more pitchers than that. So to be two pitchers short at this point in history does not suggest to me that we have done a "terrible job" with this group of pitchers.
Also, I think even the definition of medium-peak, medium-career barely holds most of the position players in it. Here's a survey:
Bill Terry -- the shoe fits, though counting stat voters may see a great peak, not a medium one.
Heinie Groh -- arguably the best player in the National league 1917-19. He has a really great peak in those three years.
Earl Averill -- with 2 seasons MiL credit and adjusted to 162 game seasons, he's over 8500 PA
Sam Thompson -- the shoe fits, though counting-stat voters may argue that he is great-peak player, not a medium-peak
Larry Doby -- with NeL and war credit, he will be around 8000 PA, and he has an argument to have been the best player in the AL in the early 1950s, before Mantle reached his prime and while Williams was injured or at war.
Bobby Doerr -- with war credit, he tops 8500 PA
Hardy Richardson -- with his seasons expanded to 162 games, he tops 8500 PA
Lou Boudreau -- had several truly great seasons, they were just not consecutive.
Insofar as these players form a group, most of them are barely in it. The two who, in my view, are unquestionably members of this group -- Bill Terry and Sam Thompson -- are the only two "pure bat" position players in the group and the only two players currently in the HoM who I view as definite mistakes. I can't see this list of 8 players as evidence that we are truly holding pitchers to a more difficult standard than position players.
I think the supporters of Pierce and Walters should keep arguing on their behalf: Walters had a great peak! Pierce had a great prime! As long as it is arguable that they aren't really medium-career, medium-peak players, even if they more-or-less fit that category, they have a good case.
Ok, I'll bite. How in the world is Addie Joss, to pick a player with a similar career pattern as Koufax and who certainly had the best peak of the guys you mentioned, better than Koufax. I don't see how you can adjust the numbers to make Joss come out ahead.
I think Pierce is a good candidate but when Koufax is left off some ballots then a guys like Pierce doesn't have a chance.
You can only have Joss ahead if you think he was as durable as Koufax was, which is an incorrect assumption when you compare them to the other pitchers from their eras.
Well, I agree the answer is simple. ;-)
Seriously, do you think that Ed Walsh would have been pitching 464 IP during the 1960s? That's basically what you're implying when you state that Joss and Koufax pitched the same amount of IP. It just doesn't make any sense.
Guys, having now done this modest research, I have to say that in this area WE'VE BEEN DOING IT ALL WRONG!
In terms of practical results, we took too long to elect Griffith, but we've done it now and I don't see anyone else obvious from the 1890s. Grimes should probably get a boost for exceptional longevity, and Dean lose some of his demerits for short career -- not really much shorter than Koufax's, when you compare the eras. Waddell should also be looked at again -- quite a long career, if you don't adjust down the IP figures.
I was responding to your initial comment about "2800-3500 IP pitchers who were consistently very good, without being great type of pitchers". If you think Walters had a great peak, add that to his resume use it to lobby for him. (Basically what Chris C said). I just didn't understand the affection for very-good-but-not-great players who didn't have long careers. I mean, why not vote for the guys who were better or played longer?
The reason is, as karl says, that those contemporaries who pitched more innings than Joss generally blew their arms out. They pitched more per year but fewer years. To say that a pitcher should be downgraded because he (or more properly, his manager) had a more enlightened, longer-term approach to using his pitchers is wrong.
When giving out Cy Young awards, fine, if a guy is 150 ERA+ in 350 IP, god bless 'im. But when it comes to the HoM, that pitcher more than likely followed up with an injury year and 3-4 90-110 ERA+ years and was done. Meanwhile, Joss or whomever keeps plugging away at 150 ERA+ and 250 IP for 10 years. The fact that he wasn't the Cy Young award winner along the way shouldn't be held too much against him when the Cy Young winners are guys like Joe Wood, etc., who just couldn't keep it going (I know I'm kind of mixing eras).
I also know that the Joss situation is complicated by his early death.
Still I think the idea that guys have to be among the IP leaders is a bit of a red herring sometimes.
Don't know if you're referring to Joss, but the point is other guys played longer (or more within the season) but not better.
If you're evaluating peak, you absolutely have to adjust for it.
As for the pitchers that you mentioned above from the 1960s and 1970s, I also agree that you have to adjust their numbers, but mostly on the career side, instead of the peak side.
Nope. That referred to the discussion way up in #37-41. Joss's rate stats wouldn't put him in the group I was talking about.
Joss's best shot was in the 1920s. I remember heated debates at the time. The electorate preferred McGinnity's workhorseness. Not sure how well those threads have survived.
1) ERA+ is a bad way to evaluate pitchers
2) Even if you use ERA+ Koufax has a better one if you don't count his first four seasons. I'm not picking and choosing here. When talking about great someone was career rate stats are horrible because they get diluted disproportionately by time spent learning how to play at the beginning of their careers and by hang around time at the end. Those portions of players careers are irrelevant to their cases.
3) Time-line adjustment.
The simple answer is usually the wrong one.
I did not say he was better than Koufax.
Koufax got elected to the HoM on the first ballot (and to my PHoM).
This is my final mention of Koufax.
Further complicating the Joss situation is that he pitched his last game on July 11 - missing the last 11 weeks of his last season with an arm injury.
Is baseball's version of the Kobain/Morrison/Hendrix/Holliday effect that strong? If so where were the Johnny Fredrick, Willard Hershberger, Ken Hubbs, Austin McHenry, Herb Score, Earle Combs, Pete Reiser (and Frank Chance?) stumpers all this time with superheated defenses of their guy(s)? Addie Joss's defense is downright tepid in comparison to the outporing of Koufaxian vitrol from the lurker crowd (Karl, I'm not suggesting you ramp it up to that level either).
For the same reason that our overall dismissing of Dizzy Dean hasn't received that much, if any, criticism - his non-contextual numbers,
I would bet everything in my bank account that if Koufax had started his career in '48 and in a neutral park, he would be even less well known than Robin Roberts is today, which is sad when you think about it.
Only four people voted for Joss and only one of those had him above Koufax. You are pretty much preaching to the choir here.
And why are most of those passions coming from people who don't regularly post on the HOM?
Some of those guys might not have been around for previous discussions. We pick apart almost *everyone*'s career here. Check the old threads, even guys like Mathewson and Grove took some shots in our analysis. Don't worry, everybody goes under the microscope. Its part of the analytic process.
Maybe we have trouble electintg so many middle tier pitchers because we understand pitching less than we understand postiion players. Therefore, there is less consensus, and each voter picks out a pitcher that impresses them in a different way. With position players we are better able to trust our metrics and have more consensus on what exactly makes a great hitter, etc.
The idea of a week off to vote on pitchers only sounds like fun, but I am not sure it is needed.
There's a lot of truth in what you say, karlmagnus. However, I think what hurts him is his ERA. 3.02? What's so special about that for such a short career (and don't even talk about Wes Ferrell! :-)
TEN [of 20] were active at some point in the 1960s (Niekro, Ryan, Perry, Sutton, Spahn, Carlton, Blyleven, Seaver, John and Roberts.) One (Clemens) postdates that era. Four pitched primarily before the distance lengthened (Galvin, Keefe, Mathews and Welch.) Only five of the 20 had their career primes in 1893-1920 (Young, Johnson, Nichols, Alexander, Mathewson.) There should possibly be an upward adjustment of innings picthed for careers centered in 1920-59, when modern medicine hadn't happened and the lively ball had.
. . .
Sorry, Blyleven debuted in 1970 and so joins Clemens. Doesn't change the point.
Absolutely true. Eight of the ten may be called one generation in a fairly narrow sense (Spahn and Roberts deleted).
Niekro, Ryan, Perry, Sutton, Carlton, Blyleven, Seaver, John
Not so for the deadball quintet. Alexander made his major debut in Cy Young's 22nd and last season. MLB debut years 1890, 1890, 1900, 1907, 1911. Alex and Cy about three years older than Kid, Matty, and the Big Train.
--
JoeD answered a question from David Foss:
Bill Terry
Heinie Groh
Earl Averill
Sam Thompson
Larry Doby
Adding in the SS/2B (not sure why they should be excluded)
Bobby Doerr
Hardy Richardson
Lou Boudreau
There aren't any catchers that would qualify under this definition - we haven't elected a catcher that didn't have a huge peak or a long career for a catcher.
That's 8 position players under the medium career length - medium peak strength mold.
The only pitchers I can see that fit that are Stan Coveleski and Clark Griffith.
Chris Cobb commented.
Here I don't do much but quote him and write "right" after each paragraph.
If there are 8 position players elected with this profile, then the number of pitchers who share this profile in the HoM depends in part on what one thinks the ratio of pitchers to position players should be, a point on which the electorate is not in agreement. Someone who sees that the number of "Arms" should equal the number of "Bats" and the number of "Gloves" would say we are two pitchers short, and I don't think anyone is saying we would have more pitchers than that. So to be two pitchers short at this point in history does not suggest to me that we have done a "terrible job" with this group of pitchers.
Right. Ten is a tiny population and 8:2 is only one off the desired or expected 7:3 distribution.
Also, I think even the definition of medium-peak, medium-career barely holds most of the position players in it. Here's a survey:
. . .
Insofar as these players form a group, most of them are barely in it. The two who, in my view, are unquestionably members of this group -- Bill Terry and Sam Thompson -- are the only two "pure bat" position players in the group and the only two players currently in the HoM who I view as definite mistakes. I can't see this list of 8 players as evidence that we are truly holding pitchers to a more difficult standard than position players.
Right.
I think the supporters of Pierce and Walters should keep arguing on their behalf: Walters had a great peak! Pierce had a great prime! As long as it is arguable that they aren't really medium-career, medium-peak players, even if they more-or-less fit that category, they have a good case.
Right.
I still think my point is valid, though I've bounced around a bit in making it (which I could see leads to confusion). I was referring to 'best in baseball' not 'best in league' specifically (AL or NL). I think that matters too.
Forgetting 8500 as the hard requirement (again, just a number I plucked out of the air), batters without an extremely long-career, or extremely high peak that I would add to the list:
*Bill Terry
*Bobby Doerr
*Hardy Richardson
*Heinie Groh (I'm disagreeing on the spike of his peak being extreme - and even if it was somewhat high, it wasn't higher than Walters/Pierce, which is the main arguement)
*Stan Hack
*Lou Boudreau
*Pee Wee Reese
*Joe Kelley
*Harry Stovey
*Jimmy Sheckard
*Richie Ashburn
*Earl Averill (even with minor league credit)
*Larry Doby (peak wasn't that high)
*Sam Thompson
None of them had extremely long Ruffing like careers (equivalent to 4500+ IP) careers, or insane peaks like Caruthers, Rusie, Walsh and Koufax.
Pitchers:
Clark Griffith
Stan Coveleski
others that could maybe be described this way?
Bob Lemon?
That 14 to 2 or 3. 10 of the 14 went in with relatively little resistance. It took Griffith about 70 years.
Among those close in the last election that would fit:
4. Biz Mackey
9. Joe Gordon (pretty high peak actually, significantly higher than Doerr's IMO)
17T. Cupid Childs
17T. Joe Sewell
Then finally Billy Pierce and Bucky Walters at 20 and 21. So it's likely going to be 17 or 18 before we get our 3rd or 4th pitcher in the group of tweeners.
In electing 220 or so players, we are going to have our share of tweeners - I think it's blatantly obvious, that we've been a lot more friendly to the position players than the pitchers, and the trend is getting worse, not better.
I still don't see how one could like Lemon significantly more than Walters. Is it just that the 1950s Indians are fresher in some of our minds than the late 30's Reds?
The Indians are close enough that at least our parents remember them and may have told stories. But Walters is a whole 'nother generation back. It's the only thing I can think of. It's probably one of our most arbitrary decisions to date.
That's the same reason I don't consider Doby a high peak guy. He's a good peak, career long-enough guy. High peak guys to me are Kiner, Arky Vaughn, Hughie Jennings, Albert Belle. Perennial MVP candidates for a decade that end up with short careers for one reason or another. When I say peak, I guess it's what some of you call prime. I don't consider a guy with a 3-year peak and nothing else to be a 'peak-candidate' to me, he's a 'non-candidate' (though I'll still review and rank him, it's rare for a guy like that mak my top 20), so I guess that's caused some of the confusion too.
Also, as I would say the electorate as a whole believes that peak value is a bit more important for pitchers, is there a case to be made that a short-career, high peak pitcher gets a better reception from the HoM than a short-career high-peak position player?
Joe lists Kiner as a high-peak guy: he hasn't set the voters on fire. It took Hughie Jennings 50 years to get elected. Wes Ferrell and Sandy Koufax are both on the inside, as is Al Spalding and Amos Rusie. How many position players with less than 10 years of full-time play have we given the time of day?
On Lemon vs. Walters: I agree there is a problem of consistency here, though I see it as much that Lemon was overrated as that Walters is underrated. I certainly found the ease with which Lemon was elected to be surprising. I believe that he benefited somewhat from being in the Hall of Fame. Since the sabermetric community has never raised a fuss about his being in that Hall, I believe that voters were more likely to look at his record expecting to see something good, and therefore finding it. I think this sort of status has benefited several players. Walters and Pierce don't have that advantage, and Walters has the additional disadvantage of war-time discounts. Lemon's reputation as a hitter is better established than Walters', and was pushed much more in the arguments that led to his election. I still think many voters are not taking Walters' batting into account.
Another big factor in Walters vs. Lemon is WARP. Even though their careers overlapped, and their peaks were separated by only a decade, WARP sees a very significant change in the distribution of value between pitchers and fielders as taking place right at the start of Lemon's career, when walks and home runs both jump up:
Player -- xIP -- DERA -- PRAR
Walters -- 3138 -- 4.07 -- 804
Lemon -- 2899 -- 4.16 -- 850
Walters was the more effective pitcher in more innings, but Lemon was more valuable?
I don't begrudge Walters his 1939-42, but it bothers me that he was lousy in 1943 and then was excellent in 1944 - a brutal war year. Then he pitches well - but a lot less often - in 1945 and 1946, then he's toast.
It's debatable, but he doesn't quite cut it with me.
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler, Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O’Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , , Clark Griffith, , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Chief Bender , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Stan Musial Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt,
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines,
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Sandy Koufax Yogi Berra ,Early Wynn, Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
, Warren Spahn, , George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin
1974
Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Robin Roberts Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Addie Joss
1979
Hack Wilson
1980
Duke Snider, Chuck Klein
1981
Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Travis Jackson
1983
George Kell
1984
Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi
1987
Ray Dandridge
1989
Red Schoendienst
1991
Tony Lazzeri
1992
Hal Newhouser
1994
Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Leon Day , Vic Willis , Richie Ashburn
1996
Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Nellie Fox, Willie Wells
1998
George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Joe Williams
2000
Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Hilton Smith
2006
Ray Brown, Willard Brown, Andy Cooper, Biz Mackey, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Jud Wilson, Frank Grant, Pete Hill, Jose Mendez Louis Santop, Ben Taylor, Sol White
A lot of pitchers have alternating good years and bad years. The drop on talent wasn't enough to make him look good in the off-year.
I have Walters rated about even with Dean; not quite as good a peak, better career. He's just on (14) and Dean is just off (21). And Trout is pretty similar.
I see Lemon as having a longer prime than these guys. They were all good for 5-6 years, except Lemon for 8-9. Made a big difference to me, even if it doesn't in Joe's system. YMMV.
I agree that with Walters the correlation with the weak war year is definite, but the cause and effect is not.
This is the same dilemma I have with Bob Johnson (and that I had with Doerr).
If it's just happenstance that '44 was a big one, then I'm being unfair.
But if they couldn't have done it against a full complement of players, then others are being too kind.
It's a tough call, and it matters with all three, I think.
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