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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, March 27, 2006

1973 Ballot

Impressive newbies: Whitey Ford, Dick Groat, and Curt Simmons.

Top-ten returnees: Biz Mackey, Cool Papa Bell, Willard Brown, George Sisler, George Van Haltren, Joe Gordon, and Cannonball Dick Redding.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 27, 2006 at 01:03 PM | 113 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: April 03, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#1933651)
My top 15 for 1973:

1. Whitey Ford SP (n/e) - Very easy choice at #1 for me. My system has him as the #11 pitcher we've seen, sandwiched between Hal Newhouser, Carl Hubbell, Ted Lyons and Early Wynn. I don't see any reason to deviate from the numbers, especially since he was spotted against the best teams. He doesn't have a great peak for an elite pitcher, but giving him two years of military service gives a nice boost to his career value.
2. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.
3. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
4. Luke Easter 1B (4) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
5. Billy Pierce SP (5) - What's not to like. Prospectus has him translated at 243-144 (and he had 32 saves). He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. I could see Mike Mussina ending up like Pierce historically.
6. Ralph Kiner LF (6) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
7. Charley Jones LF (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
8. Bucky Walters SP (8) - I was underrating him. According to RSI he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call.
9. Phil Rizzuto SS (9) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously.
10. Nellie Fox 2B (10) - Very good peak. Great defense. Relatively long career at a key defensive position. I'm a big fan of this kind of player.
11. George Van Haltren CF (11) - He could rank anywhere from 2 to 21, very tough to evaluate.
12. Cool Papa Bell CF (12) - Awful lot of career value there. Gets a bump this week. I think I had him a little low, given the potential for error in rating Negro Leaguers based on translations, I'm erring a little more on the side of reputation.
13. Virgil Trucks SP (13) - Hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him between Ruffing and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here. I overrated him just a little last time, Lemon and Walters have significantly higher peak with similar career value.
14. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (14) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
15. Joe Gordon 2B (15) - Lost two prime years, was cranking out 9-11 WARP1 seasons annually (1939-43) before military service.
   102. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: April 03, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#1933654)
16. Minnie Minoso LF (17) - Still not sure what to make of his extra credit. I can't see him being lower than this. Career track somewhat similar to Will Clark. Great player from the start of his career, very good player for the rest, and career ends rather early.
17. Vern Stephens SS (18) - I love shortstops that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Better than Doerr IMO.
18. Dutch Leonard SP (20) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
19. Willard Brown LF (21) - Moving him up some after reconsidering him based on the recent Negro League Hall of Fame election.
20. Dobie Moore SS (22) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. But I've been convinced that he played enough (the level of play was never in quesiton) that I should move him way up compared with where I had him. This is similar to where I've put Hughie Jennings in the past.
21. Bill Monroe 2B (23) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
22. Ernie Lombardi C (24) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
23. Biz Mackey C (25) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
24. Jimmy Ryan OF (26) - Could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
25. Wally Schang C (27) - If he'd only played a little more in the years he did play.
26. George Sisler 1B (28) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
27. Bob Elliott 3B (29) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
28. Dizzy Trout SP (30) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-evaluation.
29. Tommy Bridges SP (31) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. He'd slipped off my radar too.
30. Quincy Trouppe C (32) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
31. Joe Sewell SS/3B (33) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
32. Urban Shocker SP (34) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
33. Burleigh Grimes SP (35) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
34. Dick Redding SP (36) - I see him just a little behind Grimes.
35. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (37) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
36. Bob Johnson LF (38) - I could have him too low. I need to be careful about purging guys that aren't close to my top 15, but well ahead of others, he was one of those that was lost in the shuffle somehow. One powerful hitter.
37. Dom DiMaggio CF (39) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
38. Ed Williamson 3B (40) - Still on the board after 70+ years.
39. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (41) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
40. Jose Mendez SP (42) - Putting him back on the ballot after his recent election to the Hall of Fame caused me to reconsider his case. I think there's a very reasonable case to put him slightly ahead of Waddell.
41. Rube Waddell SP (43) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped.
42. Ben Taylor 1B (44) - Not that far off Beckley, shows how tight the ballot is. Gets a slight bump.
43. Walker Cooper C (45) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
44. Lave Cross 3B (46) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. Enormous career value. Superb defender at important position(s).
45. Mike Griffin CF (47) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
46. Hugh Duffy OF (48) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan. I just don't see why some people like him so much. What makes him any better than Griffin? Griffin was on base more, and was a better fielder. Griffin had almost as much power. I just don't see it. If Duffy didn't have about 2 seasons on Griffin, he wouldn't be this close.
47. Cupid Childs 2B (49) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, much shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, as Schoendienst is making me re-evaluate the infielders.
48. Edd Roush CF (50) - Weak league hurts him.
49. Larry Gardner 3B (51) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
50. Pie Traynor 3B (52) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Could move significantly higher once I get a better handle on this.
51. Mel Harder SP (53) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
52. Billy Nash 3B (54) - Similar to Traynor, better glove, less pop.
53. Vic Willis SP (55) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
54. Dick Groat SS (n/e) - Better than I would have thought. 2 years of military service help too. He basically had the same career length as Schoendienst. Wasn't quite as good of a hitter, but he was SS as opposed to being a 2B.
55. Red Schoendienst 2B (56) - Good player, very nice peak from 1952-54. About equal as a hitter to someone like Concepcion or Campaneris, but they played SS, not 2B. Can't see any way to rank him ahead of someone like Larry Gardner, Billy Nash, Pie Traynor, Cupid Childs, etc.. So I bumped the others, since I don't think Schoendienst should be lower than this.
56. Bobo Newsom SP (57) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
57. Dick Lundy SS (58) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
58. Mickey Welch SP (59) - I should not have completely dropped him from consideration. I think he was a good pitcher, not a great one.
59. Don Newcombe SP (60) - Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see anyway possible to rank him ahead of Mel Harder. I think this is probably too high.
60. Bobby Avila 2B (61) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
61. Charlie Keller LF (62) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.
62. John McGraw 3B (63) - One helluva player - when he could stay on the field. More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
63. Dizzy Dean SP (63) - Great pitcher for a couple years. Too bad his career was cut short.
63. Lefty Gomez SP (64) - Quite comparable to Dean. Similar career value, Dean had the higher peak.
64. Tommy Henrich RF (65) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
65. Alvin Dark SS (66) - Shortstops that can hit league average are a valuable commodity.
66. Alejandro Oms OF (67) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
67. George Scales SS (68) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
68. Mickey Vernon 1B (69) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
69. Addie Joss SP (70) - Not very durable in season, short career. Great whenever he was on the field. Similar to John McGraw in that respect.
70. Pete Browning CF (71) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation. The bat was great, the D was awful and the career was short.
71. Gil Hodges 1B (72) - I don't see how he can be ranked above Vernon.
72. Larry Doyle 2B (73) - Another good pre-Ruth 2B, but he wasn't very good defensively, and the position wasn't even difficult at the time. I see him as similar as a hitter to Bob Elliott through 1950. He should be compared to post-war 3B, not 2B. He wasn't as good as Elliott defensively either.
73. Eddie Yost 3B (74) - Very good player, that OBP was amazing, +.051 vs. league average, despite hitting just .254 for his career. Bad D at 3B though, and not much power.
74. Sherm Lollar C (75) - Good player, somewhat forgotten by history. Catcher bonus gets him on the ballot.
   103. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: April 03, 2006 at 07:08 PM (#1933665)
Not to pick on Trevor (he's not the only one), but I cannot get my hands around the concept of giving 70% military credit. It makes no sense to me. Do you really think a player could have been expected to miss 50 games in a season that he was in the military? If not how can only 70% credit be justified?
   104. Ken Fischer Posted: April 03, 2006 at 07:50 PM (#1934100)
1973 Ballot

1-Biz Mackey
I can’t find a good reason to not rank him number 1 this year. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

2-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick Redding was given the shaft on February 27.

3- Cool Papa Bell
Bell moves up this week. He was the premier lead-off man of his era. Bell is considered by some to be the fastest man to ever play baseball. That has to count for something.

4-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. He’s getting closer all the time!

5-Whitey Ford 261 WS
Whitey is way off the charts in gray ink. He’s one of the premier post-season pitchers of all-time. It’s hard to not rank him in the top 5.

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of the most overlooked ballplayers in history…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

11-Gil Hodges 263 WS
Gil would be making big bucks in the AL if he was playing today. He would be a great DH/1B right-handed hitting slugger. He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

12-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Minnie had one of the most interesting careers in baseball history. With a late start he still made 7 All-Star teams. His SB numbers would be off the chart if they ran more in the 50s. Some credit for Negro Leagues.

13-Willard Brown
He didn’t get much of a chance with the Browns. But some reports claim Brown was the top power hitter in the Negro Leagues in the 1940s.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-George Sisler 292 WS
Yes…I broke down and added him to my ballot. I had Ralph Kiner next in line and knew I had to take another look. Strong Gray Ink and good Black Ink marks. His OPS ranking dropped in the mid-20s…but he was getting old.
   105. Esteban Rivera Posted: April 03, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#1934391)
1973 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

3. Whitey Ford – Even if you do or do not take into account league strength, doctoring, war credit and usage patterns, the Chairman is still a very qualified candidate.

4. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

5. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

6. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

7. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

8. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

9. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

10. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

12. Cool Papa Bell – The career this man would have had is among the most unique we have encountered so far. Probable 3500+ hits and speed to burn is a lot to ignore.

13. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

14. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

15. Jose Mendez – Moves up this year. Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

16. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

17. Joe Gordon – Very worthy player. With war credit ranks ahead of Doerr on my second baseman list. Should join him soon.

18. Minnie Minoso – Staying put for this year. I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

19. Willard Brown – Has the hitting I’m looking for, with a slight demerit for the walks. However, I see him as a good enshrinee.

20. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time. Seems we have a lot of second sackers hanging out in the foyer.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.
   106. sunnyday2 Posted: April 03, 2006 at 08:29 PM (#1934536)
70% mil credit is 70% more than what Bill James, among others, gives. If you want to say that 100% or 0% are the only choices, there will probably be more 0s than 100s.
   107. Qufini Posted: April 03, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#1934762)
In regards to my earlier question, we're up to 21.
   108. Trevor P. Posted: April 03, 2006 at 09:57 PM (#1935077)
Joe, I guess philosophically I have a very difficult time giving a 10% discount to a player who was there, on the field, playing 154 games a season, while simultaneously being asked to fabricate an undiscounted season based on an educated guess for a player who was not there.

Of course I don't think Gordon would have missed 50 games per season if he were playing. But suppose 25-year-old player X avoids a career-ending injury by going off to war. That's potentially 15 seasons that otherwise would not have occurred. I understand this is a hypothetical situation, but I need to account for the possibility that perhaps a young pitcher's arm was saved because he spent a year or two in the military, and 70% is my way of doing it.

I should say that I'm not beholden to 70% - that number used to be lower, and it could continue to increase.

I'm actually curious, now - does anyone NOT discount wartime seasons?
   109. KJOK Posted: April 03, 2006 at 10:24 PM (#1935136)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. WHITEY FORD, P. 37 POW, 97 WARP1, 321 RSAA, 220 Neut. Fibonacci Wins & 132 ERA+ in 3,171 innings. Ranks ahead of recent inductees Roberts and Koufax.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

8. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

9. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

10. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD.

11. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

12. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

13. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

14. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

15. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.



COOL PAPA BELL, CF. MLE of .365 OBP and .382 SLG over 13,637 PAs. Even after giving him “Rickey Henderson” credit for baserunning and “Willie Mays” credit for fielding, he still falls short of ballot worthy. Greatness perception perhaps a ballpark illusion. Best comp is Harry Hooper with speed.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr and Childs.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 19 POW, 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers of his era.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.
   110. jimd Posted: April 03, 2006 at 11:26 PM (#1935314)
Ballot for 1973

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Almost done revising my system. Maybe next year.

1) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's.

2) J. GORDON -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Gordon belongs also.

3) W. FORD -- THE name pitcher of the AL of the 1960's. He wasn't Koufax, but nobody else was either.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close.

5) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

7) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

8) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

9) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all.

10) B. MACKEY -- New HOFer will make the HOM this year (maybe).

11) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good. Moves up due to the way comparisons interact in my ballot process, combined with how close these candidates are.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters?

13) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy.

14) C. P. BELL -- Made it back onto my ballot.

15) W. BROWN -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

16) D. REDDING -- Reevaluated; just short.

17) D. DEAN -- He's almost ballot-worthy.

18) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

19) D. TROUT -- Not quite.

20) J. BECKLEY -- He's almost ballot-worthy, too.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Joe Tinker, Bill Hutchison,
23-24) Tommy Leach, Harry Hooper,
25-26) Edd Roush, Lave Cross,
27-28) Dobie Moore, Wally Schang,
29-30) Ralph Kiner, Nellie Fox
   111. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 03, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#1935399)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   112. Brent Posted: April 04, 2006 at 02:26 AM (#1935765)
I'm actually curious, now - does anyone NOT discount wartime seasons?

I don't. I guess that's why I'm one of the few friends of Phil Rizzuto.
   113. Daryn Posted: April 04, 2006 at 02:40 AM (#1935820)
I don't -- except for Newhouser. And I'm not kidding.
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