I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Mickey Mantle-CF (n/e): No-brainer candidate #1. Greatest ML center fielder of the 1950s. Best ML center fielder for 1955, 1956, 1957, and 1961. Best AL center fielder for 1953, 1954, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1962, and 1964. Best AL first baseman for 1968.

2) Eddie Mathews-3B (n/e): No-brainer candidate #2. Retired as the greatest third baseman of all-time. Best ML third baseman for 1954, 1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, and 1963. Best NL third baseman for 1953.

3) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

4) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

5) Joe Gordon-2B (3): Best second baseman of the 1940's when you give him appropriate WWII credit. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

6) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (5): Eric's new MLEs may give Brown that extra-added push. His HOF induction probably wont hurt, either.

7) Tony Mullane-P/OF (6): I'm officially the greatest FOTM now. :-) His unusual career is hard to evaluate, but I now think he's worthy. I also give him credit for the time he missed during the mid-1880s.

8) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (7): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

9) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (8): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, feld, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

10) Pie Traynor-3B (9): Best white third baseman of his time (though Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

11) Alejandro Oms-CF (10): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

12) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (11): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

13) Burleigh Grimes-P (12): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

14) Mickey Welch-P (13): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (14): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Mackey, Sisler (may hit my ballot in a year or two), Redding, Mendez, and Van Haltren all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

PHoM = Elect-Me spots


1. Mickey Mantle (new)
2. Eddie Mathews (new)

I hate the term 'no-brainer', but sometimes, what else can you say?


3. Willard Brown (1,1,3)
4. George Van Haltren (2,3,2)

My pet projects have to wait again.

5. Biz Mackey (4,4,5)

He never quite makes it.

6. Dobie Moore (8,7,7)
7. Jake Beckley (5,6,6)
8. Mickey Welch (6,8,8)
9. George Sisler (9,9,9)

Mr. Consistant

10. Nellie Fox (12,12,12)
11. Hugh Duffy (11,10,11)
12. Tommy Leach (7,13,10)
13. Edd Roush (10,11,12)
14. Tony Mullane (13,x,x)
15. Quincy Trouppe (14,14,14)

16-20. Minoso, Redding, Rice, Childs, White
21-25. Smith, Streeter, Grimes, Kiner, Sewell
26-30. Johnson, Ryan, Strong, Gleason, Elliott

1974 Ballot:

This is the earliest I've ever voted. My personal hall of merit inductees this year are Mantle and Mathews.

1. Mickey Mantle – My rankings see him as the 12th-ranked player to date and the 3rd-ranked center fielder. MVP for 1956, 1957, and 1962; plus 6 more times in the top 5 in voting. (PHoM 1974)

2. Eddie Mathews – Number one third baseman to date. Twice finished second in MVP balloting. (PHoM 1974)

3. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley. (PHoM 1971)

4. Orestes Miñoso – A fine, consistent player. He hit for average and with power, ran with speed, and won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

5. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley. (PHoM 1973)

6. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

7. Phil Rizzuto – “The best shortstop ever at turning the double play, almost beyond any dispute, was Phil Rizzuto.”—Bill James, TNBJHBA, p. 638. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

8. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

9. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 116 DERA+ (PHoM 1966)

10. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

11. Gavy Cravath – From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. He was just continuing what he’d been doing for years while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30.

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Elston Howard – Another example supporting the thesis that coming up with the Yankees could be deadly to a player’s HoM chances. Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964.

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 128 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

15. Dick Redding – “One of the great pitchers of black baseball” —James A. Riley.

Near misses:

16–20. Grimes (PHoM 1940), Moore, Newcombe, Fox, Keller
21–25. Leach (PHoM 1932), Bresnahan, Arlett, Easter, Rosen

Other consensus top 10:

26. Joe Gordon – Better than Doerr, but I prefer Rizzuto, Moore, and Fox.

41. George Van Haltren – A good player, but his fielding WS rates were low for a player who spent most of his career in CF.

51. George Sisler – Career value is hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime were not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Other new arrivals:

I placed Rocky Colavito at # 35.

1974 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Mickey Mantle He will make the HOM this year.

2. Eddie Mathews He will also make the HOM this year.

3. Dick Redding May be more similar to Spahn/Roberts than we realize.

4. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

5. Larry Doyle I think the 1910’s NL is getting penalized more than the 1950’s AL. Second basemen with most career batting WS, through 1974 eligibles: (1) Eddie Collins 463.6. (2) Rogers Hornsby 443.7. (3) Nap Lajoie 398.8. (4) Charlie Gehringer 295.3. (5) Frankie Frisch 258.0. (6) Larry Doyle 237.5. (7) Billy Herman 219.0.

6. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

7. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951. Third basemen with most career batting WS, through 1974 eligibles: (1) Eddie Mathews 387.4. (2) Jud Wilson (est) 320.1. (3) John Beckwith (est) 263.0. (4) Stan Hack 250.5. (4) Bob Elliott 237.5. (5) Frank Baker 235.0. (6) Tommy Leach 232.5.

8.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

9. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

10. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

11. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter. Was he Koufax-good though?

12. Willard Brown New numbers boosted him, not the HOF vote.

13. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

14. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

15. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr/Gordon, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak recently, and came away less impressed.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. Minnie Minoso

17. George Sisler

18. Ben Taylor

19. Alejandro Oms

20. Rube Waddell

Missing top 10

Joe Gordon – He really wasn’t a better hitter than Johnny Evers, even with a couple of years’ extra credit. (Evers 198.1 BWS in 1784 G. Gordon 172.8 BWS in 1566 G. Evers 18.0 BWS/162 G, Gordon 17.9 BWS/162G.)


Some of the Newbies

Rocky Colavito – Kiki Cuyler-like value in a different package.

Larry Jackson – Billy Pierce – 199 PRAA in 3306.67 IP. Eddie Cicotte 199 PRAA in 3226.67 IP. Larry Jackson – 143 PRAA in 3262.67 IP. To show WARP-weirdness – Pierce 1041 PRAR, Cicotte 730 PRAR, Jackson 904 PRAR.

Elston Howard – Below Mackey, Bresnahan, Schang, Lombardi in the catcher list. Coming up, he’ll be behind Freehan. Howard vs. Munson will be interesting.

Roger Maris – The hitting similarities to Babe Herman (Herman 206.2 BWS in 1552 G, Maris 194.2 BWS in 1463 G, each for a 21.5 BWS/G average) are intriguing.

Voting early so I don't make the same mistake two years in a row. . . .

1. Mickey Mantle
2. Eddie Mathews—Greatest third baseman until the emergence of Mike Schmidt, and a much needed addition to the position's meager ranks in the HoM. In fact, with the candidacy of Ken Boyer next "year," I plan on taking a closer look at third base, particulary McGraw, Williamson, Elliott, & Rosen.
3. Dobie Moore—Called the "best unrecognized player" of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
4. Hugh Duffy—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy's career value isn’t too shabby, either.
5. Jose Mendez—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
6. Cupid Childs—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
7. Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
8. Bucky Walters—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
9. Willard Brown—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
10. Joe Gordon—Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.
11. Dizzy Dean—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! The best peak among eligible pitching candidates.
12. Edd Roush—Nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
13. George Sisler—Have been underrating him due to the shortened war seasons during his peak and the greater importance of fielding at his position during the era.
14. Billy Pierce—Takes Eppa Rixey’s old spot on my ballot; while never great (according to the uber-stats), was always solid. Rixey had more career value, but Pierce’s peak was better, squeezing more into a shorter career. Very similar to Whitey Ford; is also underrated due to usage patterns.
15. Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.

Required Disclosures:
16. Biz Mackey—I thought for sure that he'd be elected going into last "year," but it seems he'll have to wait a couple more years. Like Sisler, Mackey's career is really two careers: the first one quite good, the second . . . not so much. Keeping regression in mind, his peak is just not quite enough to make my ballot this "year."
26. Dick Redding—A pre-1920s Negro League candidate about whom little is known. Going by the translations on his thread, Cannonball would be much lower then this; I give him a boost considering the nature of the numbers in his era, but he is still primarily a career candidate.
31. Minnie Minoso—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory. Hovers around 30 with Jimmy Ryan.
36. George Van Haltren—Long career, but little peak, although the shorter seasons may be obfuscating it. Time as mediocre pitcher in 19th century baseball tweaks his WS a bit.

1. Mickey Mantle, OF. One of the game’s truly elite players. He was a legitimate MVP candidate for 9 seasons, winning three of them and finishing second another three times. He has several other very good All-Star caliber seasons for the longest prime of any candidate on this ballot. And his career value is very high, still ranking amongst the all-time leaders in OBP (19th), SLG (26th) and Home Runs (13th after Ken Griffey Jr. passed him just last week).

2. Eddie Matthews, 3B. In the argument as the best ever at his position. His career numbers actually come pretty close to Mantle’s- 100 less hits, ten more doubles, identical triples and 24 less home runs- but he never dominated the game the way that Mantle did. Still, he was a 9-time All-Star, and a routine member of numerous top ten lists: RBIs 7 times, SLG 7, Total Bases 8, Runs 9, OBP 10 and Home Runs 12.

3. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (4). The best pitcher on the ballot, according to his MLEs. I also like that his own winning percentage was better than his team’s by 100 points.

4. Willard Brown, OF (3). I give Willard Brown war credit for 2 ½ years which brings his career value up into the neighborhood of a Goose Goslin. I still like his peak numbers but his career rate stats in both OBP and SLG are a little low for a player of his caliber which is why I’m giving Redding the nod ahead this year.

5. Jose Mendez, P (5). His MLEs are slightly lower than Redding’s and slightly better than Pierce’s actual numbers.

6. Nellie Fox, 2B (8). There was a lot of discussion this past week about the possibility the electorate is undervaluing players from the more defensive positions of 2B, 3B, SS and C. I think I may have been a little guilty of that as only one 2B and one C made my last ballot. After some positional adjustment, Fox gets a small boost on my ballot. Fox was an outstanding defensive second basemen- winning three gold gloves- and ideal top of the line-up hitter- routinely landing in top ten lists for Runs (7 times), AVG (8), Hits (10) and Triples (11). Plus he has a long prime during which he was acknowledged as the best at his position, picking up MVP votes in 10 seasons and being named an All-Star 12 times.

7. Billy Pierce, C (6). The best Major League pitcher on the ballot, Pierce slips down only because of Fox’s upward movement. An All-Star 7 times between 1953 and 1961, TSN named him AL Pitcher of the Year for 1956 and 1957 so he’s got both the peak and the prime. During that prime, Pierce also made the adjustment from being a strikeout pitcher- leading the league in Ks in 1953 and Ks per 9 IP in ’53 and ’55- to an innings eater –leading the league in Complete Games from 1956-’58- demonstrating that he’s smart as well as talented.

8. Quincy Trouppe, C (9). I think he’s the best catcher on the ballot with more great years than anybody else at his position. Like Fox, Trouppe also gets a slight bump up this ballot based on my positional adjustments.

9. Minnie Minoso, OF (7). He was an All-Star as soon as he entered the Major Leagues, getting named to the actual team 7 times and picking up MVP votes 8 times. He was routinely among the league leaders, finishing in the top ten eight or nine times each for AVG, OBP, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, 2Bs and Stolen Bases. A little bit of Negro League credit at the beginning of his career gives him the added boost to offset the lack of black ink. After having narrowly beaten Fox and Trouppe on my last ballot, Minoso becomes one of the biggest victims of my positional adjustment.

10. Hugh Duffy, OF (10). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

11. George Sisler, 1B (11). His peak isn't quite as long as Duffy's as Sisler was only among the very best for a three-year period from 1920-22. However, he had a longer prime, picking up top ten slots in average, stolen bases, total bases and hits 8, 9, 9 and 11 times. Also, the career numbers aren't as bad as the Hall of Merit discussion led me to believe.

12. Joe Gordon, 2B (n/a). Gordon becomes the biggest beneficiary of my positional adjustment, jumping up from just off-ballot at #16 to well on the ballot at #12. I give Gordon 2 and ½ years of war credit. I like the slugging numbers, picking up top ten slots in SLG, Runs, RBIs, Total Bases and Home Runs 5, 5, 5, 6 and 9 times.

13. Ralph Kiner, OF (12). Led the league in Home Runs 7 straight seasons and finished fifth one more time. But Kiner was more than just a one-dimensional player. Fans of both OPS and Adjusted OPS+ should be impressed by his league-leading numbers in those categories in 1947, ’49 and ’51.

14. Ernie Lombardi, C (n/a). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG.

15. Biz Mackey, C (n/a). Mackey is credited with two MVPs (in 1923 and 1931) as compared to Lombardi’s one and the two players had similar lengths for their prime. However, despite the nearly equal career OBP (.358 for Lombardi, .359 for Mackey), Lombardi’s SLG is much higher (.460 to .393). That gives Lombardi the edge between two very similar players.

Falling Off Ballot: While Gordon, Lombardi and Mackey are the beneficiaries of my positional adjustment, Alejandro Oms, Jake Beckley and Mickey Welch become the victims. I still think they’re worthy of the Hall of Merit and they’re all in my top twenty, but for now they get squeezed out.

Necessary Disclosures:
George Van Haltren: As I mentioned on my previous ballot, I've done a lot of research on the 1890s before joining this project. Van Haltren didn't impress me then and he doesn't impress me now. He was never one of the best players in the game and he wasn't even among the very good for all that long. He's nowhere near my ballot and I don't think he ever will be.

1. Mickey Mantle - better than Joe D but not as good as Speaker or Cobb in my system.
2. Eddie Mathews - Tremendously overqualified. Best 3B this project has seen this far so it is a shame he won't be a unanimous #1.
3. Bob Johnson - Above average forever; I'm not giving him minor league credit to get him this high.
4. Ralph Kiner - tops of the short career sluggers
5. Billy Pierce - best MLB pitcher available. Holds his own against Ford, Drysdale and Bunning.
6. Joe Gordon - I can't see him missing the cut with Doerr elected
7. Biz Mackey - best available catcher, terrific defender, hit enough for a catcher
8. Minnie Minoso - I evaluated pitching down slightly and Minoso makes my top 10 for the first time
9. Tommy Bridges - slides down as I increase replacement value for pitchers slightly
10. Jake Beckley - moves up slightly, there isn't much separation between candidates after Pierce
11. Quincy Trouppe - Mexican league star, played everywhere forever
12. Bob Elliott - suffers compared to Mathews but still an all-star 3B several times
13. Chuck Klein - another short career slugger
14. Charlie Keller - ditto
15. Dutch Leonard - Glad people are still voting for him or I wouldn't have found him. This is the reason to report your down-ballot rankings
16-20. Van Haltren, Trucks, Sewell, Lazzeri, W Brown
21-25. Cravath, F Jones, Shocker, Mendez, R Waddell
26-32. Trout, LARRY JACKSON, ROCKY COLAVITO, J Ryan, Sisler, Roush, Leach

Dick Redding is stuck with Vic Willis at 45th. Roger Maris isn't top 75. Elston Howard compares well to Bresnahan but I don't have Bresnahan above 75 either.

No changes this week – my 1 and 2 were elected and are replaced by Mantle and Matthews.

I have Gordon at 23 (C-). Minoso is at 24 (C-). Brown is at 28 (D). Copying Gadfly, I have instituted a Grade ranking of my candidates. As and Bs would make my version of a Smaller Hall. B minuses and C plusses are borderline.

1. Mantle (A)
2. Matthews (A) -- each is top 5 in their position all-time. That’s good on this or any ballot.

3. Mickey Welch (A) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes at 4 and Mendez at 15. Grimes is among the top 50 all-time in Pitching Win Shares.

5. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving.

6. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Biz Mackey (B) – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (14) or Schang (27). Wait 'til next year, Biz.

8. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

9. George Sisler (B) – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

10. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

11. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

12. George Van Haltren (C+) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

14. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

15. Jose Mendez (C) – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right (this gap used to be twelve spaces -- now it is four). His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin, the best of whom is at 25 on my ballot.

1974 ballot
Mantle and Mathews make my PHOM this year

1. Mickey Mantle what if he didn‘t hit the drain in the 51 WS (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
4. Eddie Mathews Traynor’s fielding put him above him (makes my personal HoM this year)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
7. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
8. Biz Mackey was (almost missed this one) another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
9. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
10. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
12. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
13. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
14. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
15. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
16. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
17. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
18. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
19. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
20. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
21. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
22. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
23. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
24. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
25. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Joe Gordon would need a real lot of war credit to even approach my ballot
Willard Brown, Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe Leaudge stats seem to show he lacked

1. Mickey Mantle
2. Eddie Mathews

Clearly the top 2 players on the ballot.

3. George Van Haltren - Good hitter, good defender, long career.

4. Jose Mendez - Not a long career, but an outstanding peak.

5. Bob Johnson - Great hitter who moves up this high with minor league credit.

6. Willard Brown - Great hitter who played centerfield and shortstop for half his career.

7. Minnie Minoso - Like Johnson gets this high due to minor league credit, wasn't as good a hitter as Indian Bob.

8. Fielder Jones - Great centerfield, great OBP.

9. Bucky Walters - Similar to Mendez, but peak wasn't as good.

10. Joe Sewell - Great shortstop, good hitter. Done at age 34.

11. George Sisler - Very good peak. Could have been great w/o injury.

12. Jimmy Ryan - Similar value to Sisler, but not as big a peak.

13. Bob Elliot - Good defender, very good hitter.

14. Ralph Kiner - Short career, but 7 home run titles and a 149 OPS+.

15. Gavvy Cravath - Great hitter, fantastic peak, not much D

16. Wally Berger
17. Nellie Fox
18. Edd Roush
19. Buzz Arlett
20. Dizzy Trout

22. Joe Gordon - Short career keeps him lower.

Cannonball Dick Redding - Other than his 3 year peak he doesn't impress me too much.
Biz Mackey - Not a great hitter and no peak

>4. Eddie Mathews Traynor’s fielding put him above him

WS has Traynor as a B fielder, Mathews a C

OPS+-Mathews 145, Traynor 107

Brroksie was an A- with a 105

Nettles was also an A- with a 110

Ned Williamson was an A with a 112

Tim Wallach A 103

Robin Ventura A- 116

They all would pretty much have to be ahead of Traynor and Mathews, then?

I agree with you that it is ridiculous to have Mathews behind Traynor. In yest's defense, the position had much different demands in the deadball era than it did in the 1960's. Even if I treat Traynor as if he were a SS I can't get him anywhere near Mathews.

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. And some other stuff.

Mantle and Mathews make my pHOM. Shocking, I know.

1974 ballot:

1. Mickey Mantle (pHOM 1974). Well, duh.

2. Eddie Mathews (pHOM 1974). Equally duh, even if the HOF didn’t think so for a few years. The best 3B we’ve seen yet. With the positional adjustment, he’s not all that far from Mantle. Both are well ahead of everyone else on the ballot, of course.

3. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak.

4. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Still the best nonelected eligible pitcher out there, IMO.

5. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m no longer his sole best friend! Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

6. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in. As a peak voter, guess who I choose. (The recent discussions haven’t changed my mind one bit.)

7. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another from that underrepresented era, and another infielder with a great peak.

8. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

9. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

10. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). Looks like a great hitter to me, even if he didn’t walk much.

11. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, an impressive peak by any of my favorite measures.

12. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the remaining 3Bs not named Mathews, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers (after fending off a challenge from Elston Howard this year).

14. Joe Gordon (pHOM 1971). My recent 2B reevaluation gave him a decent boost; I like him quite a bit better than the recently elected Doerr. With war credit, he’s clearly worthy.

15. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

16-20: Walters (1968), Rosen (1968), Keller (1973), Sisler (1939), Bresnahan (1973)
21-25: Redding, C. Jones, [Reese], Browning, E. Howard, Fox
26-30: [Slaughter], Mackey (1958), Leach, Doyle, Berger, Joss
31-35: McGraw, H. Wilson, Oms, [Doerr], Minoso, [W. Ford], Chance
36-40: Cravath, Pierce, Poles, [Ashburn], [Lyons], Roush, McCormick
41-45: J. Ryan, [Wynn], Elliott, G. Burns, Pesky, [Rixey], Colavito
46-50: Welch, [Lemon], Van Haltren, Trout, Veach, Rizzuto

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone, but at #26, he is getting closer to my ballot (with his election looking imminent, this may be as close as he gets; on the other hand, it’s looked imminent for some time now!).

•Sisler. After a demotion some years back, he’s crept back to the edge of my ballot, depending on who the new candidates are. Presently #19.

•Redding. Not quite the peak of my favorite unelected eligible pitchers, but he’s close. At #21.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren, very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. Midpack at #34.

•Van Haltren. Not a peak voter’s kind of hitter. He’s at #47.

•Colavito. Before I realized I had copied my WS from my pre-schedule-adjusted list, I was trying to figure out whether or not he was better than Cravath. As it turns out, he’s clearly not, but he does have a good enough peak to debut in my top 50, at #45.

•Larry Jackson. Not enough peak. Not in my top 50, or particularly close.

•Elston Howard. Before I found the right WS list, he was neck-and-neck with Trouppe and probably on my ballot. Afterward, he drops to a more natural position, below Bresnahan but still close, at #24. Great, if small, peak for a catcher.

•Maris. Falls solidly in my HOVG, below Chuck Klein. Not close to my top 50, though.

No one else even got that close.

WS has Traynor as a B fielder, Mathews a C
OPS+-Mathews 145, Traynor 107
WS dosn't coun't 3rd base putouts and considering Traynor led the NL in putouts 7 times and holds the NL career record for putouts it's quite obvious that if you give credit for his putouts it would make his letter grade much higher

also there's my singles are underrated by ops point of view
and I think he's getting to much of discount for playing in the 20' and 30's due to the fact it's harder to bat 35 point higher then average in a leauge that has 295 then 35 points higher in a leauge that hits 260

Having gotten my feet wet in the last two elections, I realized that I needed to take a step back and reevaluate my evaluations. I see now that what is important to me is that the player has shown that he could dominate the opposition, be unquestionably in the upper tier of his trade. There must be peak with prime. Peak on its own is not enough. Bud Smith, who was languishing in the Phillies minor league system last time I checked, once threw a MLB no-hitter. That's about as high a peak as a pitcher can go. But there was no prime, and he is in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, or some such place. I then look at career. The smaller the poor end of his career, the higher the player can rise. I am not very fond of win-shares and prefer making judgements based on what the player was able to do with what was given to him. I compare to league averages, instead of replacement level. So OPS+ and ERA+ play a hefty role. There will inevitably be fine-tunings made to my rankings as I learn to use the available toolsof measurement more efficiently, but I am satisfied that my present method speaks for me.

1 Mickey Mantle - very little separates him from #1 all-time
2 Eddie Mathews - great ink. 12 times with an OPS+ above 120. Very good defense.
3 Hugh Duffy - Still grades very high in my new, consistent method. A career with plenty of upside, very little downside.
4 George Sisler - His upside has rarely been matched. His down years do hurt him a little.
5 Gavvy Cravath - His minor league credit is the difference between 5th and 11th. Great ink for a short MLB career. Defense hurts him.
6 Joe Sewell - Easy to overlook. Unique hitting skills. Very good defender to boot.
7 Rube Waddell - He really jumped in my book. His winning% doesn't jump out at you but pretty much every thing else does. I also appreciate his lack of down years.
8 Lefty Gomez - Another huge leap. Takes a lot of unwarranted slack for pitching for great teams. I foget who, but someone pointed out that he was one of the reasons those teams were great. Great ink, very consistent, 2 time pitching triple crown winner.
9 Minnie Minoso - I have mixed feelings about his defense. Had remarkable consistency and ability during his MLB career. Tons of gray ink.
10 Jake Beckley - no peak, but his whole career was prime. And a very nice prime. Very good defender at the bag, too.
11 Vern Stephens - one of the best hitting shortstops of the pre/post-steroid era. He may not have been in the class of the Wizard with the glove, he does seem to have been no slouch either.
12 Ralph Kiner - Short career - all peak. Better defense would have lifted him above Minoso.
13 Edd Roush - He earned a fresh looking at. Very good hitter, wonderful glove.
14 Jose Mendez - He also jumped up my list, replacing Redding, who dropped down. Very nice peak. He can still move either up or down, based on further research.
15 Addie Joss - He was dominant prior to his death. If his black ink was a little higher, he would have been elected already, I feel. Never had a down year. In his short career, he had 8 seasons with an ERA+ above 120.

I will provide also the hghest ranking player at each position not on the ballot
C - Quincy Trouppe - Very little between him, Bresnahan and Lombardi on my list
1B - Ben Taylor
2B - Nellie FOx - misleading OPS+
3B - Al Rosen - one more very good season would have him in the top 15 for certain.
SS - Phil Rizzuto
LF - Pete Browning - putting him in left is arbitrary, I know. He could have been ranked in center, too. His defense hurts him. I was also expecting more black ink. There is an interesting discrepency between his black ink and his OPS+
CF - Wally Berger - great prime
RF - Chuck Klein
P 2 for the price of one - Tommy Bridges, Cannonball Dick Redding

also there's my singles are underrated by ops point of view
and I think he's getting to much of discount for playing in the 20' and 30's due to the fact it's harder to bat 35 point higher then average in a leauge that has 295 then 35 points higher in a leauge that hits 260

That might mean something if they were close, but Mathews destroys Traynor (who I have on my ballot, BTW) as a hitter. It's not even close.

Pie led the league in one important offensive category in his whole career. That ain't Eddie.

WS dosn't coun't 3rd base putouts and considering Traynor led the NL in putouts 7 times and holds the NL career record for putouts it's quite obvious that if you give credit for his putouts it would make his letter grade much higher

Traynor was known at the time to have had an erratic arm.

Sometimes I wish yest would post a prelim.

I understand that there's no extra points for unanimity or elect-me-unanimity, but still...

I understand that there's no extra points for unanimity or elect-me-unanimity, but still...

I expect another prominent voter to deny Mathews an elect-me spot, BTW. Though I could be wrong.

At least two, John. I'd put money on two.

At least two, John. I'd put money on two.

You might be right, Max.

1974 ballot. The top two votes require no explanation.

1. Mickey Mantle (new)
2. Eddie Mathews (new)
3. José Méndez (10, 10, 10, 10, 2) Could easily be as good as Koufax.
4. Ralph Kiner (5, 5, 5, 5, 3) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs. This year's candidacies of Colavito and Maris shed comparative light on him - and Kiner was better.
5. Billy Pierce (-, 4, 4, 4, 4) See his thread for more. Better than Lemon. I like him better than Wynn. One thing to note: he had significant relief usage throughout his career (the old Grove/Johnson/3F Brown pattern), presumably at high leverage.
6. Larry Doyle (3, 2, 2, 2, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
7. Quincy Trouppe (8, 8, 8, 8, 6) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
8. George Van Haltren (4, 3, 3, 3, 7) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
9. Bucky Walters (17, 18, 18, 19, 8) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
10. Orestes Miñoso (-, 13, 6, 6, 9) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value.
11. Joe Sewell (7, 7, 7, 7, 10) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
12. Biz Mackey (9, 9, 9, 9, 11) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Berra didn't have quite the hitting career needed for election as a corner player.
13. Dick Redding (11, 11, 11, 12, 12) A career-value pitching candidate.
14. Jake Beckley (12, 12, 12, 13, 13) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
15. Bob Elliott (13, 14, 13, 14, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B. Looks clearly better to me than next year's candidate, Ken Boyer. (Mathews belongs to a different world and different conversation.)
16. Hugh Duffy (16, 17, 16, 17, 15) I had too much space between him and Van Haltren, but he drifts off the ballot again. He'll be back.
17. Mickey Vernon (14, 15, 14, 15, 16) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
18. Willard Brown (15, 16, 15, 16, 17) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
19. Nellie Fox (-, 17, 18, 19) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
20. Phil Rizzuto (18, 19, 20, 21, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (19, 20, 21, 22, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Joe Gordon (20, 21, 23, 22) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.
23. Tommy Bridges (21, 22, 23, 24, 23) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
24. Edd Roush (22, 23, 24, 24, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
25. George Sisler (24, 25, 25, 26, 25) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Vern Stephens (25, 26, 26, 27, 26)
27. Dobie Moore (27, 28, 28, 29, 27) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (28, 29, 29, 30, 28)
29. Rocky Colavito (new) I like Colavito's actual major league career a hair better than Johnson's, including a better peak. Johnson stays ahead of Colavito in recognition of his minor league value. A big hitter at a "bat" position is a tremendously valuable asset. As much as I enjoyed what was unconventional about the '85 and '87 "Whiteyball" Cardinals, they needed Jack Clark in the middle of that lineup. So these guys are valuable - but historically, there have been quite a few of them. This is about where I'd rank Sam Thompson were he still eligibe (yes, I consider Thompson's election a mistake.) Chuck Klein isn't too far away.
30. Frank Chance (29, 30, 30, -, 30)

Roger Maris: Directly comparable to Colavito, and Colavito wins the comparison. His 1960 MVP wasn't that bad a joke, even if his 1961 MVP was. But that's not enough.

Elston Howard: Had his circumstances been different, he might have been a HoMer - had he come to the majors at 23 instead of 26, had he been on a team that didn't have Yogi Berra. But I'm forced to evaluate the career he did have, and it's too much time as a part-time player, not nearly enough as a star.

1974 ballot

PHOM Mantle and Matthews

Also, Bill James doesn't include 3B putouts for very good reasons. While their may be skill involved in catching flyballs, 3B are al over the map. There isn't really a skill involved in 3B putouts, it depends too much on things like how a defense is structured and how much foul territory there is next to 3B.

1. Mickey Mantle (x, PHOM 1974) - 3rd best CFer of al-time, which means he is probalby one of the 10-12 best players ever. If only he was healthy his whole career.

2. Eddie Matthews (x, PHOM 1974) - certainly not better than Schmidt, but could be #2. Another easy selection who woudl be #1 on about 75% of our ballots if not more.

3. Cupid Childs (1, PHOM 1939) - Huge gap between #'s 2 and 3. CHilds was the best 2B of teh 19th century in my eyes. Great peak and decent career length for his era and position.

4. Hugh Duffy (2, PHOM) - High peak sets him apart from the rest of the 1890's CF trio. More career adn prime than pet candidates like Keller and Kiner.

5. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind Smokey Joe and that ain't bad.

6. Charlie Keller (5, PHOM) - With war credit he has many 5 or 6 MVP level seasons, who else can say that? I believe that Keller's edges in defense and OBP outwiegh Kiner's edge in power.

7. Dobie Moore (6, PHOM) - The black Hughie Jennings, though I doubt that his peak as as high. I am not willing to give him extra credit for being chased out of a brothel with a gun.

8. Ralph Kiner (7, PHOM) - Another high peak, short career OFer. I think that Keller was better but Kiner deserves induction as well. Seven straight HR titles is impressive no matter what the circumstances.

9. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) - Similar to Lemon and Ferrell but not quite the hitter. Great three year peak, however.

10. Pete Browning (9) - Top of my PHOM backlog. Probably the best hitter on the ballot and he would be up in Keller/Kiner territory if I didnt' have owrries about teh quality of competition in the AA.

11. Joe Gordon (10) - I believe that he was better than Doerr, but they are so close that if one goes in the other should as well.

12. Quincey Trouppe (11) - Best catcher on the board, better than Mackey because of his higher peak.

13. Dizzy Dean (13) - A bit of a bump after a drop by GVH. Great peak, proablby a better pitcher than Walters, but didn't hit or field very well and had less career.

14. George Sisler (14) - Best 1B on the board with a nice peak. He would be higher but his peak wasn't as good as some think and he wasn't much better than mediocre after 1922.

15. Al Rosen (15) - Great peak but a short career. I go back and forth on whether or not he is ballot worthy.

16-20 GVH, Oms, Waddell, Brown, Howard
21-25 Bresnahan, Mendez, Cravath, Berger, Minoso
26-30 Fox, Willis, Pierce, Newcombe, Mackey
31-35 Roush, Lundy, Rizzuto, Monroe, Veach
36-40 Doyle, Sewell, Shocker, Johnson, Leach
41-45 Thomas, McGraw, Stephens, Wilson, Chance
46-50 Colavito, Traylor, Cicotte, Burns, Easter

Required Disclosures
16. GVH - Just off ballot, our discussion of the 1890's CF trio mad eme realize I was trusting his pitching numbers too much.

19. Willard Brown - It's a race as to whether or not he will make my ballot first or he will be elected, probably the latter. I have some doubts as to how god he would have been in MLB based on his poor plate discipline. He coudl have been huge he could have been Mark Whiten.

22. Jose Mendez - I have consistently had him behind Rube Waddell. They are very similar pitchers but I feel Waddell was just slightly better. May deserve a HOM spot.

25. Minnie Minoso - Nice player but I am not sure if he is HOM material. In fact I may even be overrating him. He would have been in the HOM if we hadn't uncovered his lackluster record prior to making it to the majors.

30. Biz Mackey - I am all for making him wait as I am unconvinced as to his HOM worthiness.

Newbies

20. Elston Howard - Very similar to Bresnahan when he is given full credit for his pre-Yankee days. If I were to give credit for his beign stuck behind Berra he would be on the ballot. A sleeper candidate.

45. Rockey Colavito - Good player, not much worse than Minoso.

I try to approach this exercise as if I am picking a 25-man roster. What this means is that I have positional quotas: 5 OF, 3 CI, 3 MI, 2 C, 2 UT, 10 P. I am a peak/prime voter for hitters using Win Shares. For Negro Leaguers, I consider the posted stats and MLEs, as well as the subjective opinions of the players. Also, I give full credit to players who missed time because of World War II. Also, there are a lot a "matched pairs" on my ballot: Mendez/Redding, Fox/Leach, Pierce/Leonard.

I am in the process of reevaluating pitchers using a measure that is a combination of marginal runs saved and runs saved above average. (EDIT: This is about finished; my system also takes into account pitcher's hitting and postseason performance.)

1974 HOM Ballot
1. Mickey Mantle - He was lucky he didn't come along 30 years later or we might be talking about him the same way we do Darryl Strawberry.
2. Eddie Mathews - Bill James simply got it wrong.
3. Charlie Keller - With war credit, "King Kong" had six straight MVP-caliber seasons with two more All-Star level seasons to start his career. Ranks seventh all-time among major league left fielders to date, which puts him ahead of nine other HOMers at the position.
4. Minnie Minoso - Ranks this high because of greater confidence in his career record than the other Negro Leaguers.
5. Dobie Moore - Absolute monster at shortstop. Value comparable to Hughie Jennings, who I liked, but better.

6. Jose Mendez - Mendez and Redding are certifiable HOMers, though I like Mendez's peak a bit more.
7. Dick Redding - Gets bumped up a bit based on subjective opinion, but still a strong candidate.
8. Dizzy Dean - High peak with lots of innings, pitched well in the postseason, very good hitter.
9. Carl Mays - Hitting and postseason pitching worth about six ERA+ points.
10. Quincy Trouppe - Love, love, love the MLEs. A catcher who could absolutely rake.

11. Willard Brown - He gets bumped down to this spot because his lack of plate discipline makes projecting career value a bit uncertain.
12. Nellie Fox - Very closely linked to Leach in terms of value. Both players are underrated by the electorate because they were not eye-popping in any one facet of the game. Edge goes to Fox because of his peak seasons.
13. Tommy Leach - Criminally underrated by the electorate. Sixth-greatest major league third baseman of all-time to date.
14. Billy Pierce - Poor man's Whitey Ford; a legitimate HOMer.
15. Rube Waddell - Career shape, strikeouts put him here.

The Next Ten
16. Urban Shocker - Off by a smidge.
17. Tommy Bridges - Pierce to Trout are all ranked 58th to 63rd all-time among major-league pitchers.
18. Harry Brecheen - Outstanding peak and one of the best pitchers in World Series history.
19. Dizzy Trout - Gets knocked down some because of World War II.
20. Biz Mackey - As high as I can place him given his spotty hitting record. Still would be a good HOM selection, though.

21. Joe Gordon - Can't cram his way into the ballot sausagefest. He's absolutely a HOMer in my eyes.
22. Hugh Duffy - He's the type of player I love to root for: great all-around, no holes in any one facet of his game, kind of like Bobby Abreu.
23. Ralph Kiner - Two-dimensional player (power and walks) whose peak is somewhat overrated. You have to be historically great to crack the ballot with a ten-year career.
24. Alejandro Oms - The last HOM-caliber player in my consideration set.
25. George Sisler - Peak is hugely overrated and didn't really do much with the stick compared to the other greats at the position. Only ranks this high because my team needs a first baseman. But if I think Sisler is one of the biggest HOM mistakes, we're probably doing pretty good. He wasn't peanuts (though my system has him just behind Albert Pujols.)

Other contenders:
George Van Haltren - In an OF backlog with Roush, Cravath, Berger and Veach.
Jake Beckley - It's not happening, ever. At some point, you have to be one of the best three or so players on your team and push them toward a pennant, but he never really did that.

1974

Mickey Mantle and Eddie Mathews go PHoM

1. Mickey Mantle (new, PHoM 1974)—one of the top 5 peaks of all-time, maybe one of the top 2

2. Eddie Mathews (new, PHoM 1974)—not obvious to me that he was better than Home Run Baker, but clearly one of the top 2 at his position up to the time of his retirement

3. Dobie Moore (1 last week-2-2, PHoM 1942)—the best peak among backlog position players

4. George Sisler (2-3-3, PHoM 1938)—excellent point made recently; his good and bad years stack up nicely against Early Wynn’s but the same is also true of Robin Roberts, both had 7.5 years of normal superstar pattern from beginning of career, then fell off a cliff. Why Wynn and Roberts and not Gorgeous George?

5. Rube Waddell (4-6-10, PHoM 1932)—bounces back up based on comparison with Koufax and Ford and the other peak/prime pitchers; Rube and Whitey are interchangeable

6. Pete Browning (5-4-4, PHoM 1961)
7. Ralph Kiner (6-5-5, PHoM 1964)—more big peak hitters

8. Addie Joss (7-13-14, PHoM 1967)—moves up after pitcher re-eval

9. Tommy Bond (8-8-11, PHoM 1929)—also bounces back up based on comparison of big peak pitchers; I guess I am now among those who think we are light of pitchers, or at least of these particular backlog pitchers

10. Jose Mendez (9-9-6, PHoM 1957)—big peak pitcher, newly enshrined in Cooperstown, but drops down a tad based on pitcher re-evaluation

11. Nellie Fox (10-10-7, PHoM 1971)—best available 2B, pretty sure he rates ahead of Minoso

12. Willard Brown (11-11-8, PHoM 1966)—big peak/prime/career hitter, now also a member of that “other” Hall

13. Minnie Minoso (12-12-9, PHoM 1970)—comps are Brown and Enos Slaughter, speaking from a peak/prime standpoint

14. Dick Redding (13-14-12, PHoM 1968)—I am not discouraged by the Cooperstown vote

15. Joe Gordon (14-15-14)—my version of Biz Mackey, he’s been on the threshold of my PHoM for years now; held back by being virtually indistinguishable from Doerr, Doyle, Childs and Monroe

Drops Out

16. Charley Jones (15-x-15, PHoM 1921)—another big hitter in the Kiner mold

Rest of Backlog (* = PHoM)

17-20. (Averill), (Griffith), (Hack), Duffy, Doyle, (Doerr), Williamson*, Cicotte
21-25. Keller, Dean, Stephens, Trouppe, Roush
26-30. Cravath, Klein, Sewell, Childs*, (Ruffing), Monroe
31-35. Lundy, Oms, Tiernan, (Wynn), Bob Johnson, Elliott

Required: Biz Mackey is in the 40s, as I prefer Trouppe (#24) and Bresnahan (#36). Van Haltren remains in consideration but is down in the 70s, there are so many good CF candidates....

Eddie Mathews - Bill James simply got it wrong.
James, to what does this refer?

1974 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

I obviously rank the primes (or value above average) higher than most here. Sewell, Gordon, Bob Johnson, McGraw, Chance; all lacking a stellar peak or great career length. But deserving IMHO.

Dom DiMaggio sneaks up from below-radar to almost-ballot-worthy, as I give him more complete WWII credit, and realize just how great his defense in CF was.

The M&M boys are eligible the same year…..I’ll vote for 2 M’s! :)

1-Mickey Mantle {new}
12th on my all-time list (10th among non-pitchers, and 8th as of this election), right between fellow CF-ers Cobb and Charleston.
2-Eddie Mathews {new}
In a virtual tie for #2 all-time at 3B. Better numbers than Brett, but the combo of Brett’s post-season excellence, Eddie’s poor rep, and the Braves inability to win more often makes me choose George if I had to pick one.
3-George Van Haltren (3) [10]
If you adjust his win shares for 20th century season length, he would total over 380. Now THAT, my friends, is a career.
4-Bucky Walters (4) [19]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
5-Joe Gordon (5) [7]
Super prime. Larry Doyle with a much better glove.
6-Willard Brown (7) [5]
Great slugger and new HoF member.
7-Joe Sewell (8) [15]
Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
8-Biz Mackey (9) [3]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
9-Billy Pierce (10) [17]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
10-Minnie Minoso (11) [9]
Looks a lot like Bob Johnson. But a teensy bit better.
11-Jake Beckley (12) [13]
Fine career.
12-John McGraw (6) [36]
2nd in RCAP among ALL third basemen for MLB’s first 100 years, although this number is a bit misleasing. But the HoM is short of 3Bmen and especially 1890s infielders. He was a brilliant tactician as well.
13-Ralph Kiner (13) [11]
Great prime. A few penalty points for being in B. Rickey’s doghouse. As was already pointed out, new Colavito and Maris comparisons if anything help Kiner.
14-Frank Chance (14) [52]
Every ballot I howl at the moon.
15-B Johnson (15) [31]
Very good long prime. Dissed by ultra peak-ists and ultra career-ists.

Top 10 disclosures: G Sisler 16, J Mendez 21, D Redding 27.

I can’t tell you how astonished that I don’t have a paragraph devoted to Cool Papa Bell this year. Well, except for this one. Oh, dammit.

Anyway, I’m traveling for the holiday, and I’ve absolutely no doubt about the top of my ballot, so I’m gonna go ahead and get this in.

<u>1974 Ballot</u>
1)Mickey Charles Mantle – “The Commerce Comet”
Finally, something the peak voters and career voters can agree on. Every bit as dominating as his legend indicates, and it’s downright frightening to consider how large he would loom had he been injury-free and sober. 13 times among the AL's Top 10 in Win Shares, 10 of those years as the very best. William Poundstone calculated that he had the best single season in the history of baseball (this was pre-Bonds, mind you). A giant, and deservedly so. 6th on Bill James Top 100. 12th on SABR Top 100. 12th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 15th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 17th on Sporting News Top 100. 20th (!) on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)Edwin Lee Mathews
Well, I’m afraid he’s only the best third baseman ever to appear before us. An incredibly dominant hitter, and 11 times in the National League’s Top 10 in Win Shares. Nearest comp is Mike Schmidt, which seems appropriate. 34th on Bill James Top 100. 31st on SABR Top 100. 18th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 15th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 63rd on Sporting News Top 100. 86th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
With the recent elections of Griffith and Wynn, I’ve become more resolute than ever that Burleigh Grimes is unjustifiably overlooked by this electorate. A standout National League pitcher of his era. The best possible combination of prime and career, several seasons as one of the best pitchers in the game. His numbers compare quite favorably to this year’s Shiniest New Toy. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
4)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
A tremendous high with decent career filler. As a HOM member, he would follow in the footsteps of guys like Medwick and Averill. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
5)James Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
Man, we’re certainly giving him the Biz. Mackey is the highest-unelected votegetter in every single one of his 24 years on the ballot, and he’s bound to celebrate his silver anniversary this year. It’s not really relevant to the election, but...you know...damn. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
6)Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
The reconsideration of his Negro League performance helped a little, but another look at his major league numbers helped even more. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
7)Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductee Doerr. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
8)Edd J Roush
Oddly enough, with Bell’s election and Mickey’s likely one, I’m concerned about a center fielder glut. For now, I’m dropping Roush a couple slots behind guys I am a little more certain should be elected. A review of the position is forthcoming.
9)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Must review.
10)Willard Jessie Brown – “Home Run”
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. The new plaque in upstate New York is reassuring, but not a factor in his placement here.
11)Joseph Lowell Gordon
Demonstrates what may be the harshest effect of the war of any strong candidate for election. His numbers suffer so significantly upon his return. His outstanding prime, plus five years along the ten best in WS in the AL, keep him this high, although I had ranked Doerr higher. 92nd on Maury Allen Top 100.
12)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
13)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
14)Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Redding’s a little bit career, Mendez is a little bit peak, and I really can’t make up my mind between them. (When’s the last time anybody voted a tie?) He yo-yos on and off my ballot, and he’ll spend another one just off. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
15)José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
I’m not thrilled about this. The recent HOF doings had an impact, but that was such a mixed bag, I’m questioning how much weight it actually deserves. In comparing Mendez and Redding, Cannonball has the edge in career WS, while José offers a prime that projects out to monstrous numbers. 4th Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll (as Utility player).

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangeable with Jimmy Ryan, and I don’t support either one. Similar to Pete Browning, too. Only finished in the Top 10 in Win Shares in his league once. Although , since that was also true of Whitey Ford, that may not mean as much as I thought. Center fielders are definitely in for another look.

I don't know if this is the best thread to post this, but I think everyone will see these two items:

1. Dale Petrovsky spoke to the San Diego SABR group last month and said that the Negro Leaguers will be presented en masse with Buck O'Neil and Jackie Robinson's daughter making opening and closing remarks. He didn't say what else is planned.

2. If anyone is going to be in Los Angeles from now until mid-August, the California African American Museum is having an exhibit about the Negro Leagues and their place in the social fabric of America from 1867 to 1965. I don't think it is a large exhibition, but check the museum's website for more.

1) Mickey Mantle (–) Dominant.
2) Eddie Mathews (–). I considered briefly putting Mathews ahead of Mantle, but I couldn’t do it. Brief aside: as we’re getting into a prime era for 3B, maybe we should consider whether borderline HOM candidates from earlier eras (Traynor and Elliott, for example) might have had more in-context value than, say, Ken Boyer or Sal Bando.
3) George Van Haltren (1). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares, for what it's worth. (For what it's worth, I have Jimmy Ryan in my swirling cloud of players just off the ballot, and there's really not that much of a difference between #1 and #20.)
4) Jake Beckley (2). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite alot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
5) Quincy Trouppe (4). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances. Probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
6) Cupid Childs (5). Coming into the 1971 ballot, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation underscored how impressive his peak really was.
7) Billy Pierce (6). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Alternatively, he's sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount, and not too far off from Ford.
8) Dick Redding (7).When I added Burleigh Grimes to last year’s ballot, I decided Redding was a bit too high, considering they have similar peaks and Grimes would’ve probably thrown about 600 more adjusted innings. Come to think of it, maybe this should be Grimes’ ballot spot, not Redding’s. A situation to assess for 1975.
9) Edd Roush (8). 110 WARP1 may be excessive, but the discount to WARP3 is overstated. Jumps up when compared to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
10) Bob Elliott (9). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Win Shares seems to be the only metric keeping Elliott out of serious consideration. How will he compare to Ken Boyer?
11) Willard Brown (10). If Brown had never posted that 12-for-67 in 1947, I think I would've had less trouble placing him all these years. I'm giving in and placing him 10th this year - Dr. C's win share estimates from 1937 onwards (his "breakthrough" year) are pretty similar to GVH, so he's on the ballot.
12) Alejandro Oms (11). Another centerfielder, though he played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren.
13) Wally Schang (12). Schang isn't that far behind contemporaries like Hartnett and Cochrane when it comes to playing time. 78.0 WARP1 is about one win per full season less than Cochrane.
14) Biz Mackey (13). Durable defensively, and enough offensive impact in his best years to make the ballot.
15) George Sisler (14). Back on the ballot since Griffith's election.

Joe Gordon - As I only give about 70% war credit, Gordon cannot quite make the ballot this year. Around #20, ahead of Lazzeri but behind Childs (and the recently elected Doerr).

Minnie Minoso - If you put any stock in WARP and you vote for Minoso, you should probably take a second look at Bob Johnson. Because if you took 10% off of Johnson’s entire career, not just his war years, you’d basically have Minoso. I have Johnson right around Gordon, so Minoso’s about #30.

Jose Mendez - I didn’t vote for Koufax, and I’d take him over Mendez. I should probably take a second look now that he’s in the top ten, but I doubt he’ll crack my top 15 anytime in the near future.

> really not that much of a difference between #1 and #20

I assume you copied that blindly from last year.

1. Mickey Mantle - Amazing peak, but his peak wasn't all that long. Falls a bit short on the all-time list. Among recent inductees, slightly behind Spahn, way behind Musial. Also way behind Mays. This is all nit-picking of course, I just listed 3 of the 25 best players ever.
2. Eddie Mathews - That he was probably the best 3B pre-Schmidt speaks more to the lack of quality 3B throughout baseball history than to Mathews himself. An easy induction, of course, no matter the position.
3. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
4. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in. I'll also put forth the comparison to Koufax: His peak was higher (because he actually owned a bat) and longer than Sandy's.
5. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B. Moves up a bit upon re-examination of his war credit.
6. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
7. Bucky Walters - I am not quite as alone as I used to be on Bucky. He has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
8. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
9. Minnie Minoso - Moves up quite a bit with the new MLEs. Are these new numbers a huge change in his case? Not really...but everyone at this point in the ballot is clumped together, and 2 more prime years does nothing but help.
10. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
11. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO.
12. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
13. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.
14. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.
15. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.

16. Biz Mackey - I think he had a great prime, between his solid hitting and amazing defense. His career essentially ends with his prime, which holds him down this low.
17. Billy Pierce - A little better (less peak, more prime) than Dizzy Trout. As compared to Walters, the peak really hurts him (and the prime is not much better; the career obviously is).

18. Fielder Jones
19. Dizzy Trout
20. Bob Elliot
21. Urban Shocker

22-25: Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms, Bond
26-30: Howard, Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock, Williamson
31-35: D. Dimaggio, Uhle, Grimes, Scales, Kiner
36-40: B. Taylor, Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton
41-45: Poles, Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays
46-50: Clift, Childs, Bartell, Klein, Cross


Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread? (Leaving this on my ballot and switching to bold till I get some more information, dammit! :D )

Mackey - #16. Guess I jinxed him by mentioning his "probable" election. He'll likely make it back to my ballot soon, just got shoved down by the two "duh" guys.

GVH - #28. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

Kiner - #35. Hitting prime/peak was not long enough to overcome the complete zero he was with the glove. Heilmann, as an example, was as bad with the glove or worse, but hit for quite a bit longer than did Kiner.

I assume you copied that blindly from last year.

Ack. Yeah, I did. I even considered making a follow-up post, but I didn't think anyone would notice.

Nor am I placing Willard Brown "10th on this year's ballot," despite my comments.

1974

1. Micky Mantle (-)--He’s really really good.

2. Eddie Mathews (-)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with Suttles and Beckwith, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. I’d love to see our fabulous translators take another look at the AA. Ralph Kiner has 242 career win shares (plus a little war credit). According to the last Pennants Added numbers, Browning has 310. (1927)

4. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Cupid Childs (3)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

7. Larry Doyle (5)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. George Sisler (6)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

9. Hugh Duffy (8)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

10. George Van Haltren (9)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

11. Jose Mendez (11)--Koufax forces a reevaluation of short career/high peak players. Subsequently, Mendez, Walters, Berger and Redding move up my ballot, consistent with how I’d moved Kiner up a couple years ago. (1972)

12. Carl Mays (12)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

13. Biz Mackey (13)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

14. Willard Brown (14)--The most anonymous player on my ballot. (1971)

15. Joe Sewell (15)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually.

16. Edd Roush (16)
17. Minnie Minoso (17)
18. Alejandro Oms (18)
19. Ralph Kiner (19)
20. Nellie Fox (20)
21. Quincy Trouppe (21)
22. Bucky Walters (22)
23. Wally Berger (23)
24. Dick Redding (24)
25. Ed Williamson (25)
26. Vern Stephens (26)
27. Roger Bresnahan (27)
28. Bob Elliott (28)
29. Dave Bancroft (29)
30. Jimmy Ryan (30)

Tom,

Bill James ranked Eddie Matthews behind George Brett in his 3B rankings. I remember looking over the duo's WS stats in the book sand being confused. Matthews was better in pretty much every way and it isn't like they were far apart enough for a huge timeline. I guess it was a little timeline, a little non-WS stats, and a little bit of James' inner fanboy.

Probably. Brett may have the best post-season stats of ANYONE, and Bill saw them first-hand from a Royals Rooter perspective.

I guess it was a little timeline, a little non-WS stats, and a little bit of James' inner fanboy.

Probably more of the latter. :-)

My #1 and #5 were elected. In 1974, Mantle and Mathews join the HoM. BTW, they're the first HoMers I remember as active players. The next year, Ken Boyer and Don Drysdale challenge the backlog. Then we’ll elect a couple from the backlog in 1976.

1) Mickey Mantle – Easy #1, inner inner-circle.

2) Ed Mathews – Inner circle, clearly the top third baseman we’ve seen so far.

3) George Van Haltren (2,3,3) – As the ballot thins out he climbs up again. Now in his 66th year eligible. His day will come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

4) Tommy Leach (3,4,4) – Faded a bit last election after his comeback in 1972. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) George Sisler (4,5,5) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This may not be the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

6) Edd Roush (6,7,7) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he lost ground last year. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

7) Minnie Minoso (7,8,8) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

8) Biz Mackey (8,9,9) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he may be the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

9) Roger Bresnahan (9,10,10) – Only about eight voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

10) Jimmy Ryan (10,11,11) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 13 voters who had GVH in their top nine last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

11) Jake Beckley (11,13,13) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

12) Wally Schang (12,14,14) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

13) Joe Gordon (13,15,15) – I have him with an even 300 career win shares, with credit for WW2 and adjusted to 162-game seasons. He had the MVP year of 32 AWS and gets credit for seven other seasons of 25+.

14) Burleigh Grimes (14,--,--) – Back after four years off. Has the heft I like in a career. Before 1968, he was previously on my ballot in 1945.

15) Dobie Moore (15,--,--) – Back after four years off. If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him.

Top tenners off ballot: Brown, Redding, Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters.

1.Mickey Mantle
2.Eddie Mathews
3.Jake Beckley
4.Rube Waddell

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons in between where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. Now that is a long, productive prime. For those of you who can’t stand Jake, well, my next five ballot spots goes to short career, high peak guys…

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Didn’t pitch a lot of innings compared to his contemporaries but, as dolflucky says, the man was dominant.

5.George Sisler
6.Ralph Kiner
7.Gavvy Cravath

For years I had kept these three guys low or off the ballot altogether because of their short careers, but now realize I had been underestimating the value of their primes. Sisler edges Cravath and Kiner because of his defense and stolen bases (ranked 1 or 2 in the AL between 1917-1922). By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher. Cravath gets credit for a couple of PCL seasons.

8.Dobie Moore
9.Billy Pierce
10.Alejandro Oms

Moore does not quite have the peak of Jennings, but a better career when you factor in his playing days in the army. I should have had him on the ballot four decades ago.

Pierce had five seasons with an ERA+ over 130: 201, 148, 141, 136, 133, with a sixth season at 124. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams that had very good defenses. I could be convinced I’m wrong, but I don’t think anyone has made a really good case against him yet.

Chris’ projections for Oms (340 WS, 125 OPS/9056 PA) are pretty close to Van Haltren (344 WS, 122 OPS/8979 PA). This makes sense, in that their career paths are similar: long primes without really high peaks, good (but not great) defense at center field. I like Oms more. He has a better peak, even before allowing that Chris’s projections can suppress peak a little (Dr. C has him with a 133 OPS+).

11.Joe Gordon
12.Wally Schang
13.Jose Mendez

I hope Doerr’s induction gives a good push to Joe Gordon: 120 career OPS+ with great defense, while missing two prime years to the war. Schang has issues with playing time and defense, but I still think he’s the best catcher available. Ten seasons with at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ over 120, with excellent on-base percentages.

There’s a lot of circumstantial evidence in favor of Mendez: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba. I’ve dropped him a bit, but I’m still very happy to see him in the other Hall.

14.Tommy Leach
15.Orestes Minoso

It’s great to see a little momentum for Leach, who has been on my ballot for a long time. I think he’s the best of the “defense” candidates: 109 OPS+ with a lot of stolen bases, A+ defense at both third *and* centerfield, and more career WS than any position player on the ballot except Van Haltren.

Minoso is another candidate with a long prime. Similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to have a lot of distance between the two; in fact, I may have to move Minoso up.

16-20: Ned Williamson, Bob Elliott, Cupid Childs, Tommy Bridges, Roger Bresnahan

Biz Mackey: Long career with a couple of big years, but not a lot of what I would define as “prime” seasons. Quincy Trouppe may have been better.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Willard Brown: Often compared to Andre Dawson, whom I’m not a huge fan of.

George Van Haltren: See the Oms comment

Not much change other than the obvious at the top.

1. Mickey Mantle - Do I really need to explain?

2. Eddie Mathews - Ditto

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

5. George Sisler - Even his "bad" years were still pretty darn good

6. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

7. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

8. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

9. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

10. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

11. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

12. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

13. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

14. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

15. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

16. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

17. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

18. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

19. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

20. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

PHoM class of 1974 – (2) obvious selections.

1.Mantle From one of my favorite books about one of my favorite players: “It has become a cliché to wonder how great Mantle would have been had he been physically healthy during his career. What I wonder is how great he might have been had he even tried to keep physically healthy. In the early years of his career Mantle was booed by the fans because he refused to live up to his promise. Later on the boos turned to cheers as he became known as a man who made a gallant effort despite enormous physical pain. I’m not sure the fans weren’t right in first place.” – Leonard Shecter from “The Jocks”, 1969.
2.Mathews Move over Mr. Baker, you are not the best 3B in the HoM anymore.
3.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons
4.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
5.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Closest thing on ballot to Koufax.
6.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
7.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right.
8.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
9.Brown, Willard A closer look moves him up.
10.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
11.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
12.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
13.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
14.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush forgotten; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! L
15.Minoso PHoM 1972.

1974 ballot:

1. Mickey Mantle - I have him the 12th greatest player ever
2. Eddie Mathews - 2nd greatest 3rd baseman ever (slightly ahead of Brett)
3. Jake Beckley - big gap to reach "Eagle Eye"
4. George Van Haltren - star CF of the 1890s
5. Joe Gordon - acrobatic fielder, with wwii credit
6. Bob Johnson - way underrated & worth another look
7. Willard Brown - great negro league slugger
8. Ralph Kiner - short career high peak
9. Cupid Childs - star 2nd sacker of the 1890s
10. Nellie Fox - great fielding second baseman
11. Bob Elliott - woefully underrated third baseman of the 1940s
12. George Sisler - I think he is definitely ballot worthy
13. Dobie Moore - very good all-around negro leaguer
14. Tommy Bridges - with wwii and pcl credit
15. Joe Sewell - let's not forget this fine fielding 1920s shortstop

My 16-20: Edd Roush, Pie Traynor, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Tommy Leach

Not voting for group top 10: Biz Mackey (way down my list), Dick Redding (ditto), Jose Mendez (ditto), and Minnie Minoso (around 30th).

PHOM
Mickey Mantle
Eddie Mathews

1974 Ballot

1.Mickey Mantle – Elected PHOM in 1974
2.Eddie Mathews – Best 3rd baseman so far. Elected PHOM in 1974
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
4.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
6.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
7.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
8.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
9.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
10.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
11.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
12.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
13.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
14.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
15.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.

Required Disclosures
Sisler and Minoso Just miss my ballot
Gordon Like him better than Doerr
Van HaltrenNot close to my ballot</b>

New candidates
Elston Howard Not far from my ballot and may move up with some reevaluations. Slightly behind Bresnahan
Colavito and Maris Like Colavito better, but neither is close to my ballot.
Larry Jackson Not close to my ballot.

Off the ballot
16-20 Walters,Dean,Bresnahan,Roush,Minoso
21-25 Monroe,Leach,Oms,Waddell,Sisler
26-30 Cravath,Mays,Howard,Fox,McGraw
31-35 Gordon,Johnson,W.Cooper,Elliott,Trouppe
36-40 Doyle,F.Jones,Easter,Matlock,Poles
41-45 H.Smith,Newcombe,Tiernan,Winters,Rosen
46-50 Stephens,Bond,Schang,Rizzuto,A.Cooper

1974 Ballot

1) Mickey Mantle
Of players ranked to date (i.e. 1974) he’s #11 for hitters (between Gehrig and Hornsby) and #14 overall.

2) Eddie Mathews
20th among hitters thus far (between Roger Connor and Arky Vaughan), 30th overall.

3) Ben Taylor
I’m still not sure why the rest of the electorate sees such a big gap between Taylor and Suttles. I can see why some would have Mule higher, but was the breadth of his support due to there being better record-keeping than when Taylor was playing? Anyhow, for full disclosure: I’m ranking Taylor as if he had a Warp3 total of around 105 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively. I get those numbers based on the WS projections on Taylor’s thread mixed with a little of my own subjectivity.

4) George Van Haltren
Big career #s in Win Shares and WARP1. His 3 year and 5 year peaks in WS are almost identical to Ashburn’s, but WARP3 gives the 5 year edge to Ashburn (46.7 to 39.0).

5) Dick Redding
6) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

7) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and a OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

8) Willard Brown
I consider the Andre Dawson comparison to be rather complimentary, as Dawson was a classic “5-tool” player, at least early on in his career. As much as Brown’s lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

9) Fielder Jones
Doesn't have the 130 OPS+ that jumps out at you, but WARP and WS seem to agree that he's a ballot contender: 44.3 in top 5 WARP3, 135 top 5 WS.

10) Minnie Minoso
Small pre-MLB bonus is enough to get him on the ballot.

11) Pete Browning
The WARP1-WARP2 (timeline, league strength, etc.) adjustment hits Browning pretty hard, but he was an offensive powerhouse and his numbers still justify a spot on the bottom third of the ballot.

12) Dizzy Trout
Similar WARP career (~87) and 5 yr. peak (~48) to that of Walters, but WS gives Bucky an edge: 248 to 230 career, 132 to 126 5 yr. consecutive peak.

13) Spotswood Poles
14) Alejandro Oms
Like Mendez and Ruffing, Poles and Oms are hard to separate.

15) Joe Gordon
Not terribly far behind Doerr.

Rest of the Top 50
16) Bill Monroe—I’ve been pegging Monroe to Gordon for a while. I could have just as easily pegged him to Doerr which would have him in the top 5 this year.
17) Jimmy Ryan
18) Charlie Keller
19) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.
20) Billy Pierce
21) Dobie Moore—I’m slowly re-evaluating Negro Leaguers and Moore could well move up.
22) Dom DiMaggio
23) Burleigh Grimes
24) Tommy Leach
25) Gavy Cravath
26) Quincy Trouppe—Deserves to be higher than Mackey.
27) Harry Hooper
28) Bob Johnson
29) Edd Roush
30) Bob Elliott
31) Bobby Veach
32) Joe Sewell
33) George Sisler--Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
34) Phil Rizzuto
35) Biz Mackey--I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
36) Rabbit Maranville
37) Sam Rice
38) Carl Mays
39) Cy Seymour
40) Wally Berger
41) Hugh Duffy
42) Dick Lundy
43) Jake Beckley
44) Lon Warneke
45) George Burns
46) Roy Thomas
47) Kiki Cuyler
48) Lefty O’Doul
49) Leon Day
50) Dutch Leonard

New Eligibles in Top 100
72) Larry Jackson
88) Rocky Colavito

"I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers" - Adam Schafer

Just curious, what is your ranking for Trouppe and Elston Howard? I agree with the sentiment that Bresnahan isn't far off in value from Howard but I have both way off ballot.

Glad this thread popped up again. I am pretty sure Ellie is not gonna be on my ballot at this point in time. But I need to figure out his whole dossier, not just his ML career. He clearly needs some extra MLE credit to even get into the consideration set. But among MLers he could possibly be close to Bresnahan; and among NeLers I have no idea where he is re. Trouppe and Mackey. Those are my top 3 right now and he would have to be at least #4 among current eligibles to stay alive. But he could be.

(Overall I have Trouppe #1, then Bresnahan and Mackey, and all pretty close. Lombardi and Clapp are next but not really in active consideration. Clearly not top 50.)

Neither Howard nor Trouppe are far off my ballot. If I were to rank further than 20, my ballot would appear like this. Spots 14 - 30 on my ballot are much closer than would appear.

21. Willard Brown
22. Billy Pierce
23. Quincy Trouppe
24. Hugh Duffy
25. Pete Browning
26. Elston Howard
27. Vic Willis
28. Cupid Childs
29. Larry Doyle
30. Addie Joss

1 (-)Mickey Mantle--Best career, peak, and prime on the board. In my mind's eye (we've still got a ways to go before I actually saw any of these guys play), Mantle has the most pure talent of anyone to ever play the game.

2 (-)Eddie Mathews--Pales in comparison to Mantle, but easily qualifies for induction.

3 (1)Ernie Lombardi--17 seasons, 125 OPS+, 8 times in the top 10 in slugging pct. Best hitter on the pennant winning teams of Cincy. He's not Dickey-good, but he's up there.

4 (6)Ralph Kiner--7 straight years leading the league in homers. Obviously, the career length leaves something to be desired, but Kiner was very dominant for a considerable period.

5 (2)Bucky Walters--Clearly peak heavy, as he didn't even reach 200 wins. Best player in baseball in 1939/1940? Hitting matters…

6 (3)Johnny Pesky--He was one of the best players in the league when he left for the war, and he was one of the best players in the league when he came back…I don't think it's that big of a stretch to put Pesky up here.

7 (4)Dizzy Trout--Dominance peaked in '44, which is not as good as if it had peaked 5 years earlier or later. Nonetheless, how do you not count the best players of the war era?

8 (-)Jose Mendez--I re-reviewed his case, and found comparisons to Wes Ferrell convincing.

9 (7)Chuck Klein--Less career than Ducky, more peak.

10 (11)George Sisler--An old favorite of mine. With more pitchers getting elected recently, it's easier to put his name back on the ballot.

11 (13)Dizzy Dean--Basically, he's Hughie Jennings as a pitcher. I'm giving pitchers some extra weight on the ballot these days, so that gets us to 4th for now. I think he has to rank above Waddell, who I'm a big fan of.

12 (15)Rube Waddell--10 straight years being in the top 5 in strikeouts. 7 straight years leading the league in K/9. Career ERA+ of 134. Dominant.

13 (-)Vern Stephens--Back after a brief hiatus, but WARP numbers seem very comparable to Fox's.

14 (12)Nellie Fox--Interesting to support a player with a career OPS+ of 94, but apparently had a pretty slick glove, and has fairly solid career numbers.

15 (10)Joe Gordon--Another career gutted by the war. War truly is hell.

16 Billy Pierce
17 Dom Dimaggio
18 Burleigh Grimes
19 Duke Farrell
20 Eddie Cicotte

Top 10 omissions: Redding and Van Haltren are in positional gluts. Mackey has no peak. Brown is too similar to Jimmy Ryan/Heinie Manush for me to consider putting him on a ballot. Minoso is close (in the 20-30 range).

1973 recap.

In the AL East, the Orioles returned to top of the heap with a rebuilt team sparked by the new corner OFs Don Baylor, Al Bumbry and Rich Coggins plus a full season of Bobby Grich at 2B. The pitching staff was anchored by Cy Young Award winner Jim Palmer and a lefty-righty combinatin of bullpen aces in Grant Jackson and Bob Reynolds. A 14-game winning streak in August put them ahead to stay. The Athletics won their third straight AL West title holding off the upstart expansion Royals by six games. The A's also featured an August winning streak (9 games, 13 of 14) that distanced them from the pack. Reggie Jackson, Sal Bando and last year's postseason hero Gene Tenace led the offense. Twenty game winners Holtzman, Hunter, Blue and relief ace Rollie Fingers led the pitching staff. In a tightly contested ALCS, Catfish Hunter pitched a shutout in the decisive game five to return the A's into the World Series.

In the NL West, the LA had a 4.5 game lead in late August. The rebuilt Dodgers featured the infield of Garvey/Lopes/Russel/Cey for the first time (Garvey sharing with Buckner at first) and fine seasons by Crawford, Ferguson and Sutton. The second place Reds already featured Perez, Morgan, Rose and Bench on offense, but young September call-up Ken Griffey (and later George Foster) helped ignite the team to a 14-2 tear that vaulted the Reds into first place to stay. The East was a wide open race. The defending champ Pirates were struggling after the death of Clemente and the collapse of ace pitcher Steve Blass and no team stepped up to take control. In late August, only one team was above .500 and the Mets were in last place. From that point on, the Mets finished the season 21-8 to steal the division title despite winning only 82 games. Tom Seaver led the Mets with his second Cy Young Award. In the NLCS, the Mets shocked everyone by keeping pace with the Big Red Machine. A homer by Rose in the top of the 12th of game four forced a decisive fifth game. The score of the final game was tied 2-2 when the Mets broke it open with four runs in the bottom of the fifth inning to advance to the World Series.

In the World Series, the Mets surprised everyone again by holding their own against the defending champion A's. A game five shutout by Koosman even gave them a 3-2 and within one win of the title. In game six, catfish outdueled Tom Terrific 3-1 to force a deciding game. In game seven, homers by Campernaris and Mr. October gave the A's a comfortable 4-0 lead and cruised from there to repeat as World Champs.

Elsewhere in MLB, the ageless Hank Aaron slugged 40 homers at age 39 to pull within *one* homer of Babe Ruth! Good luck next spring Hank!

1974 Ballot

1. Mickey Mantle (ne) -- Perennially reigned as the AL's best player throughout most of his healthy career.
2. Eddie Mathews (ne) -- Would be unanimous #1 in many years. One of the great young hitters in baseball history and his career lasted long enough to get over 10000 PA.
3. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
4. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
5. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Dick Redding (5) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Ralph Kiner (6) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
8. Gavvy Cravath (7) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
9. Charley Jones (8) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
10. Biz Mackey (9) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft spot for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
11. George Sisler (10) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
12. Joe Gordon (11) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot.
13. Roger Bresnahan (12) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
14. Joe Sewell (13) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
15. Bob Elliott (14) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.


16-20. WBrown, BJohnson, BPierce, Rosen, Browning,
21-25. Trouppe, Chance, Fox, Lombardi, Beckley,
26-30. Welch, DMoore, Minoso, Leach, Waddell,
31-33. Roush, Newcombe, BWalters

Glad this thread popped up again.

It usually does, Marc, during election week. ;-)

Well, with karl not boosting Beckley yet, here's someone else to play the part, to a degree...



1974 ballot, our (and my) 77th
I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.
Slightly or more extensively revised comments for backloggers, depending on the player, but for once very little change in the rankings. That probably means some upticks and downturns next year, knowing my history.

1. MICKEY MANTLE - Eight times with an OPS over 1.000 in a span of 10 years. Top 7 in OBP every year from 1952-62. Top 2 OPS every year from 1955-62. Top 2 in runs every yr from 1954-61. Top 2 in walks 10 times, including his final two seasons. Top 10 in OPS even in those final two seasons. Most similar thru the years to either Griffey or F Robinson, per age. Most similar overall to Griffey, runnerup - Eddie Mathews.
2. EDDIE MATHEWS - Ten top-10 OPS+ in an 11-yr span, 1953-63 - from a 3B! Top 5 in HRs every year from 1952-60. Nine times in the top 4 in adjusted OPS+. No speed, really, but top 10 in Runs 9 times in span of 10 years. Top 4 in walks every year, 1954-63. At least 590 PA in each of his first 14 seasons, most of them in 154-game skeds - an underrated minor bonus for being so durable as well as great. Three highest OPS+s at age 21-23 (171-172-172), pretty unusual. Most similar by age 5 times with F Robinson, 5 times with Mantle.

3. JAKE BECKLEY - Slip'n'fall out of elect-me status for a year, obviously.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Mathews had 'only' 12, though of course his peak is so much better that Eddie was an obvious No. 2 choice). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted.
4. JOE GORDON - With Cool Papa anointed, Gordon becomes my No. 2 backlogger. Elections of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison. Yeah, it looks weird that his career has no head, and no tail. But the body of work is outstanding, and not many players of his era were better.
5. RALPH KINER - I like mashers like this, and there's a smidge of war credit, too. Is getting underrated by the electorate, but that may finally be changing. Slugging version of Gordon. How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? I think both he and Gordon would have better shots with a few extra seasons of what I would consider relatively meaningless results. In both cases, the primes are there.
6. DICK REDDING - This is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now worry that the HOM won't, either. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted.\
7. BILLY PIERCE - Some interesting comparisons with recent HOMer Griffith, but a little less effective, played in a weaker league vs a strong one-league, etc. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
8. CUPID CHILDS - Even this slot may not be high enough. A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. Even discounting 1890 AA, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.

Lots of talk this time around about personal quotas and such. Well, my personal HOM line probably would be RIGHT around here. Yet I keep voting right down to 15, and if that elects someone I don't want, I'll live with it. I was annoyed to see Ruffing get in ahead of Rixey (by many years!), but I still had Ruffing high on the ballot the year he was elected (just not as high as Rixey, whom I preferred).

9. GAVVY CRAVATH - The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
10. GEORGE SISLER - Flipflops with Cravath. The comparison with Medwick in an earlier ballot discussion thread was instructive: There is an argument whether his best season was any better than George's, but there are too many voters using other systems that work against Sisler. A slight pitching boost, too.
11. BOB ELLIOTT - I'm starting to mull him vs McGraw, which is a difficult comparison. Probably better than HOMer Hack, Elliott has returned to my ballot in recent years. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd play all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Amazing how much better a hitter he was than Pie Traynor.
12. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
13. MICKEY WELCH - Clawing his way back up the ballot, slowly. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
14. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite is back on the ballot. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
15. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but as the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15. Don't think he's a HOMer, but tough to find 15 better. So while I don't root for him to get in, I won't rig a vote to try to stop him either.

JUST MISSED
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 3 yrs ago, still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Better pick than Mackey.
JOSE MENDEZ - Benefits from a slightly-shortening backlog; so far beating out Bucky Walters for the extra pitcher slot.
JOE SEWELL/BOB JOHNSON/PIE TRAYNOR - All three may get a reevaluation soon; they're due.


TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
WILLARD BROWN - Mediocre OBP and played in a weak league, I still say, take that HOF! I even blaspheme by taking the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes for his late-career MLB flop with a grain of salt, frankly.
BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in the HOM soon enough without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others. How much was that really worth in his era? Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.
MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, so he has the best chance of these 3 to wind up on my ballot next year. I'll look to directly compare him to other close candidates like Johnson; maybe I overreacted to disappointment of such negligible Negro Leagues credit.

NEWBIES
ELSTON HOWARD - Two sweet seasons, and 3-4 other good ones. Some Negro League credit, pretty good behind the plate. Still, it doesn't quite jump out at me in the first go-round. It's an odd career, though, which means I could change my mind on this one.
ROCKY COLAVITO - Another of many OFs who just can't hurdle the "Bob Johnson" line. Bob is like an HOM gatekeeper for me.

>Glad this thread popped up again.

>It usually does, Marc, during election week. ;-)

Funny how that works. Coulda sworn I was on the Ellie Howard thread....

Funny how that works. Coulda sworn I was on the Ellie Howard thread....

I thought that was the case. :-D

1. Mickey Mantle: He’s the one they called Mick the Quick, right?

2. Eddie Mathews: He’s only slightly higher than Beckley on my ballot….

3. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

4. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too.

5. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor league play.

6. Charley Jones: Best available outfielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me.

7. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with enough career to make good. The Hall’s wrong about him too.

8. Willard Brown: New walk data from Gadfly boosts his placement and solidifies my thoughts on him. I’d love to see what data the HOF committee had to work with.

9. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line.

10. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF.

11. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me.

12. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me.

13. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate.

14. Cupid Childs: The loser of the Leach reconsideration is Childs. He’s a HOMer for me, but he’ll have to wait another year for my support to show up again.

15. Biz Mackey: The Hall got him right, but he’s nevertheless a borderliner in my opinion. The hitting in the second half of his career is desultory and his peak batting skills hardly looked like George Sisler’s to me. But his excellent defense saves the day. Again, he’s a player I’d like to have the Shades of Glory data for.

16. Tommy Leach: Despite announcements that said he would reach number 11 this year, I’ve instead moved him to the final ballot slot. Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose.

17. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Love to see the data on him.

18. Elston Howard: I mistakenly was looking at a list of MLB-only catchers when I described Howard as likely appearing in the middle of my ballot. He’s just off of it instead, barely but just. He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

19. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

20. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

21. Dick Redding: Who knows? The fact that the Hall passed on him doesn’t bode well, especially since I’ve never made up my mind clearly about him. I think he’s a HOMer, but I’ll be danged if I can sufficiently and articulately prove it to myself or anyone else.

22. Ned Williamson: He’s very nearly a HOMer, I mean really close, razor-thin line.

23. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

24. George Sisler

25. Edd Roush


New dudes

Larry Jackson: Among the top 100 starting pitchers ever, probably around 85

Rocky Colavito: Between the 35th and 40th best RF ever.

Roger Maris: Between the 50th and 55th best RF ever.

Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.

Joe Gordon: I still don’t get the election of Bobby Doerr, so why would I have Gordon any higher? (OK, in truth I “get” the election of BD, but I’m not sure that we took the right guy, in fact, I think I don’t really care for either of them, I mean why not Fred Dunlap then? I’d say that if you’re rooting for Lou Whitaker, you’ll be bitterly disappointed, cause there’s only so many second baseman that we’ll feel good about taking, and Lou’s going to have a tough case with even less peak than Goerr/Doerdan, and which reminds me that isn’t Nellie Fox like just as good as those guys? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.)

is it just me, or do Dr. Chaleeko's comments not add up?

yes, Doc, somehow your commentary and your rankings are askew.

As to 'why Joe Gordon', I have him clearly above Cupid Childs, and I have Childs ranked higher than most voters. Gordon was almost as good a hitter in his day, and he was a better fielder when playing 2B was much more important; if anything, we ought to compare the recent 2Bmen like Gordon to the old-time third basemen, and he would do quite well thank you. Childs has a small career length advantage, but that is negated by 2 WWII years for Gordon. As for Sweet Lou, he looks like he'll match up pretty evenly with Joe G, who hopefully will be merited by the time Whitaker becomes eligible.

Then there's the Mathews only slightly ahead of Beckley comment. But Mathews #2 and Beckley nowhere. And Leach in the final ballot slot...at #16?

Doc must be busy this week ;-)

Then there's the Mathews only slightly ahead of Beckley comment. But Mathews #2 and Beckley nowhere. And Leach in the final ballot slot...at #16?

Me thinks that was tounge in cheek.

As to 'why Joe Gordon', I have him clearly above Cupid Childs, and I have Childs ranked higher than most voters. Gordon was almost as good a hitter in his day, and he was a better fielder when playing 2B was much more important; if anything, we ought to compare the recent 2Bmen like Gordon to the old-time third basemen, and he would do quite well thank you. Childs has a small career length advantage, but that is negated by 2 WWII years for Gordon.

As a fan of both (#4 and #5 on my ballot), Childs is a little higher because it was more difficult to chalk up games at the position during the 19th century. That outlier Bid McPhee was able to play as long as he did was phenomenal, IMO.

Righto, I actually goofed two weeks ago when I re-evalled Leach in midweek then forgot to change my Childs comments from midweek prelim to late-week ballot. So, the comment for Childs should indicate nothing about Leach anymore, and I'll fix it next week. Thanks for pointing it out!! And the Leach thing too. Man, didn't realize I was in such tough shape!

As for Mathews v. Beckley...that one you'll have to reason out for yourself, though you might call it my paen to Karlmagnus, wherever he is.

Using Win Shares as my main tool with a little bit of peak adjustment.

1)MICKEY MANTLE – Who broke Mickey’s single season slugging percentage record for switch-hitters? Answer below.
2)EDDIE MATHEWS – I’d take Brett over Eddie – of course I grew up in KC in the 70’s and 80’s J
3)EDD ROUSH – I read the bio of Roush by his granddaughter Susan Dellinger last week, I would not recommend paying full price for it. There are less than 20 pages of text about his life after the 1919 World Series. I would have much preferred a saccharine coated loving bio than a 100+ re-hash of the 1919 World Series. With her access to the subject and his family, I think she missed an opportunity to tell Roush’s story rather than spending literally half of the book beating the dead horse of the 1919 World Series.
4)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Those Pirate teams he played on were awfully good.
5)JOE GORDON 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
6)RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot.
7)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares.
8)MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner, career vs. peak argument.
9)CARL MAYS – Strong peak, good career value.
10)PIE TRAYNOR – Love those 3b put outs, but I’m comfortable placing him behind Eddie.
11)BILLY PIERCE – consistently good, maybe not enough peak to be really high on the ballot.
12)GEORGE SISLER – enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
13)ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger and Schang are both ahead of Mackey IMO.
14)DICK REDDING – MLE’s suggest enough value to be ballot-worthy. I like his documentation better than Mendez – despite Mendez Kansas City connections.
15)JOE SEWELL – Best available shortstop.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan and Schang and Lombardi
Willard Brown – too many question marks for me. Would not put Andre Dawson ahead of anyone on my ballot. Jose Mendez – Hard to rank, and not clearly better than the pitching glut.

Ballot for 1974

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

Almost done revising my system. Maybe next year.

1) M. MANTLE -- !

2) E. MATHEWS -- !

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's.

4) J. GORDON -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Gordon belongs also.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close.

6) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say.

7) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's.

8) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason.

10) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all.

11) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters?

12) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy.

13) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good.

14) B. MACKEY -- New HOFer will make the HOM sometime soon (maybe).

15) E. HOWARD -- Two contrasting catchers here.

16) D. REDDING -- Reevaluated; just short.

17) D. DEAN -- He's almost ballot-worthy.

18) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

19) D. TROUT -- Not quite.

20) W. BROWN -- These guys are all close together.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Jake Beckley, Joe Tinker,
23-24) Bill Hutchison, Ralph Kiner,
25-26) Harry Hooper, Nellie Fox,
27-28) Edd Roush, Lave Cross,
29-30) Tommy Leach, Billy Pierce,

Mantle and Mathews PHoM.

Elston Howard #14, Colavito #39, Larry Jackson and Maris HoVG but way off ballot.

1)Mantle
2)Mathews
3)Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
4)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
5)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
6)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
7)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
8)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
9)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
10)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
11)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
12)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
13)Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
14)Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control.
15)Willard Brown-- I’m still concerned about the terrible plate discipline and terrible ML flop. PHoM 1973.

Sisler--#89, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years.
Redding--#44.
Mendez--#33, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.
Van Haltren--#79, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Kiner--#22
Moore--#35, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.

From one of my favorite books about one of my favorite players: “It has become a cliché to wonder how great Mantle would have been had he been physically healthy during his career...

If he had been healthy, he surely would have been drafted, a la Mays. The Army liked to draft high-profile athletes, Mantle was certainly one, but even when young, his body was a mess. He failed at least 3 physicals before they gave up. He failed the first for osteomyelitis -- after that, the Army said, "Hey, osteomyelitis ain't so bad" and gave him a callback. He failed that one because he wrecked up his knee on the evil drain in the '51 series. He was scheduled for a third on the day of the 6th game of the '52 series -- they must have postponed it because he played that day and the next (HR in each game), and must have failed again.

So, if he'd been healthy, he would have missed a couple of years in the service, and we might have to talk about military credit. Nah. :-)

Major shakeups this week, but few of them impact the top 15. As we get deeper into the backlog, the impact of the shakeups will be noticed.

Also going to try to start voting earlier, in hopes of maybe being able to sway some of the undecideds :-) When you vote on Monday at 6 p.m., that's pretty tough to do. I realize Saturday isn't much better, but going forward, I'll try to vote on Tuesday or Wednesday.

1. Mickey Mantle CF (n/e) - Has an argument as the greatest peak player ever that wasn't named Ruth or Wagner.
2. Eddie Mathews 3B (n/e) - Arguably the greatest 3B of all-time. Just a hair behind Schmidt, too close to call with Brett. Ezra Sutton no longer the greatest career value 3B of all-time. Home-Run Baker no longer the greatest peak value 3B of all-time.
3. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day.
4. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Too much to ignore. Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
5. Luke Easter 1B (4) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
6. Billy Pierce SP (5) - What's not to like. Prospectus has him translated at 243-144 (and he had 32 saves). He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. I could see Mike Mussina ending up like Pierce historically.
7. Ralph Kiner LF (6) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
8. Charley Jones LF (7) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
9. Phil Rizzuto SS (9) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously.
10. Nellie Fox 2B (10) - Very good peak. Great defense. Relatively long career at a key defensive position. I'm a big fan of this kind of player.
11. George Van Haltren CF (11) - He could rank anywhere from 3 to 21, very tough to evaluate.
12. Elston Howard C (n/e) - I wouldn't have expected him to be this high. One of the things I love about working on this is that you get to take a look at a guy like Howard and realize he was a much better player than you ever realized. Schang, Dickey, Berra, Howard, Munson, Posada. Everyone talks about CF in Yankee Stadium, but behind the plate has a pretty solid history there too.
13. Virgil Trucks SP (13) - I urge everyone to take a closer look at him. We've got a hidden gem here, I didn't even notice it until I threw his numbers in my spreadsheet. I give him two full years of war credit for 1944-45, at an average of his 1942-43-46 level (after adjusting 1943 down a smidge for the war). He had some peak (I have him equivalent to Pierce and Plank on my 'peak' score, would have won the 1953 AL Cy Young if it existed) and there's a lot of career value here once you give him a couple of 15-11 years for the war. That would be enough to at least get him looked at by everyone. But the two missing years put him only in the 170s in wins, instead of the 200s, so he slips off the radar completely. Take a look at him.
14. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (14) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
15. Joe Gordon 2B (15) - Lost two prime years, was cranking out 9-11 WARP1 seasons annually (1939-43) before military service.

Honorable Mention:

16. Minnie Minoso LF (16) - Still not sure what to make of his extra credit. I can't see him being lower than this. Career track somewhat similar to Will Clark. Great player from the start of his career, very good player for the rest, and career ends rather early.
17. Wally Schang C (25) - I'm giving him a bump. Looking over WARP for catchers with Howard coming on the ballot, he's way ahead of everyone else on the ballot. I didn't realize that. I wonder if one of the recalcs bumped him.
18. Tommy Bridges SP (29) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. Moving up . . . War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time.
19. Vern Stephens SS (17) - I love shortstops that can hit like outfielders and play above average defense, call me crazy :-) Better than Doerr IMO.
20. Dutch Leonard SP (18) - Pretty underrated when you look at his W-L record. Prospectus loves him, and Win Shares likes him a lot. A ton of career value and the 4th most saves of any pitcher in my consideration set. Bumping him further this week.
21. Willard Brown LF (19) - Moving him up some after reconsidering him based on the recent Negro League Hall of Fame election.
22. Bucky Walters SP (8) - According to RSI he pitched against amazingly tough competition, and pitched well against it. He was a great hitter (for a pitcher) too, which further understates his record. His record is similar to Ferrell's (201-157 vs. 190-131), longer career though not quite the quality - on the surface. Ferrell was a better hitter, but he doesn't get nearly the edge that he does over other pitchers. And when you throw in a MOWP of .526 vs. .497, it makes a close call. Nonetheless, I'm dropping him some this week. I revised my system a bit, and he didn't do as well. I was probably overrating his peak.
23. Bob Johnson LF (36) - After looking at Colavito, I finally realized I had him too low. One powerful hitter.
24. Dobie Moore SS (20) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. But I've been convinced that he played enough (the level of play was never in quesiton) that I should move him way up compared with where I had him. This is similar to where I've put Hughie Jennings in the past.
25. Bill Monroe 2B (21) - Been on my ballot forever, haven't been convinced that this is a mistake.
26. Ernie Lombardi C (22) - I was convinced that his OPS+ overstates his offense due to the DPs, and his lack of peak somewhat dilutes the impact. However, I was looking over the DMB all-time disk, and they gave him a fair range rating (not poor), and also a very good arm. Are the reports of his awful defense greatly exagerrated? Are 1500 games at C and a 125 career OPS+ more common than I realize? I'm still a big fan.
27. Dizzy Trout SP (28) - Great pitcher from 1943-46. Moves up more with my pitcher re-re-evaluation.
28. Biz Mackey C (23) - After further review he appears to be closer to Schang/Bresnahan than Cochrane on the catcher spectrum.
29. Ben Taylor 1B (42) - Creeping up the ballot.
30. Jimmy Ryan OF (24) - Could easily be as high as Van Haltren, why did he fade so much?
31. Rube Waddell SP (41) - Another one that I shouldn't have dropped. Moving up significantly this week. I actually see him as between McGinnity and Brown (who I think we may have overrated, I was guilty too) at this point.
32. George Sisler 1B (26) - I think he is somewhat overrated by the consensus. His peak was great, but has been overstated.
33. Bob Elliott 3B (27) - Not very far behind Hack, who I would place between Monroe and Medwick. I cannot see how one could rank Childs or Doyle ahead of Elliott (2B pre-1920 being equivalent to 3B post 1935).
34. Quincy Trouppe C (30) - Good player, a smidge below Mackey and Schang.
35. Joe Sewell SS/3B (31) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. Good, but not great, peak isn't enough to overcome his short career.
36. Rocky Colavito RF (n/e) - Not as good as Indian Bob, but a definite Hall of Very Gooder.
37. Urban Shocker SP (32) - He was one heckuva pitcher. Never had a bad year, ultra consistent with a nice peak.
38. Burleigh Grimes SP (33) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat.
39. Dick Redding SP (34) - I see him just a little behind Grimes.
40. Roger Bresnahan C/CF (35) - Great OBP and gets a career value boost for being a catcher.
41. Dom DiMaggio CF (37) - With war credit he has enough career value and a solid peak. As was mentioned in his thread, a poor man's Richie Ashburn.
42. Ed Williamson 3B (38) - Still on the board after 70+ years.
43. Johnny Pesky SS/3B (39) - Basically the same player as Sewell but not as good defensively.
44. Jose Mendez SP (40) - Putting him back on the ballot after his recent election to the Hall of Fame caused me to reconsider his case. He was a better than Dolf Luque, but I don't think he was better than Waddell anymore.
45. Walker Cooper C (43) - Great hitter for a catcher, just a smidge below Bresnahan and Schang.
46. Lave Cross 3B (44) - Also caught some. See Traynor for the reason he's back on the board. Enormous career value. Superb defender at important position(s).
47. Mike Griffin CF (45) - Great defensive player, could hit too. Keeping his memory alive . . .
48. Hugh Duffy OF (46) - Has to be behind Jimmy Ryan. I just don't see why some people like him so much. What makes him any better than Griffin? Griffin was on base more, and was a better fielder. Griffin had almost as much power. I just don't see it. If Duffy didn't have about 2 seasons on Griffin, he wouldn't be this close.
49. Cupid Childs 2B (47) - Good hitter, but 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, much shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, as Schoendienst is making me re-evaluate the infielders.
50. Edd Roush CF (48) - Weak league hurts him.
51. Larry Gardner 3B (49) - I see him as a tad behind Traynor, about equal to Childs after bumping for 3B D in his era.
52. Pie Traynor 3B (50) - Back on the board. I think we are all seriously underrating 3B defense from the mid-30s back. Could move significantly higher once I get a better handle on this.
53. Mel Harder SP (51) - Forgotten everywhere but Cleveland it seems like, but he was a really good pitcher. With Grove hurt, he was arguably (Hubbell?) the best pitcher in baseball from 1933-35.
54. Billy Nash 3B (52) - Similar to Traynor, better glove, less pop.
55. Vic Willis SP (53) - I think I should have him higher, but I can't place him ahead of any of these guys.
56. Dick Groat SS (54) - Better than I would have thought. 2 years of military service help too. He basically had the same career length as Schoendienst. Wasn't quite as good of a hitter, but he was SS as opposed to being a 2B.
57. Red Schoendienst 2B (55) - Good player, very nice peak from 1952-54. About equal as a hitter to someone like Concepcion or Campaneris, but they played SS, not 2B. Can't see any way to rank him ahead of someone like Larry Gardner, Billy Nash, Pie Traynor, Cupid Childs, etc.. So I bumped the others, since I don't think Schoendienst should be lower than this.
58. Bobo Newsom SP (56) - Similar to Leonard, kind of flies under the radar, but had a good career while he was bouncing all over the place, not much in terms of peak.
59. Dick Lundy SS (57) - Back on the radar, not as good as Sewell IMO.
60. Mickey Welch SP (58) - I should not have completely dropped him from consideration. I think he was a good pitcher, not a great one.
61. Don Newcombe SP (59) - Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see anyway possible to rank him ahead of Mel Harder. I think this is probably too high.
62. Bobby Avila 2B (60) - Gives him some credit for pre-major league play. Had a couple of really big years in the early 1950s.
63. Charlie Keller LF (61) - God could he hit. But his career makes Kiner's look long.
63. John McGraw 3B (62) - One helluva player - when he could stay on the field. More in-season durability would have significantly raised his ranking.
64. Dizzy Dean SP (63) - Great pitcher for a couple years. Too bad his career was cut short.
65. Lefty Gomez SP (63) - Quite comparable to Dean. Similar career value, Dean had the higher peak.
66. Tommy Henrich RF (64) - Don't forget to give him 3 years of war credit. I think Moises Alou is a very good comp.
67. Alvin Dark SS (65) - Shortstops that can hit league average are a valuable commodity.
68. Alejandro Oms OF (66) - Convince me if you think this is too low, I'm listening.
69. George Scales SS (67) - I'll side with those who say he was similar to, but not as good as Sewell or Moore. Is it wrong to have him behind Lundy?
70. Mickey Vernon 1B (68) - Good player, long valuable career, not nearly the hitter Beckley or Taylor were.
71. Addie Joss SP (69) - Not very durable in season, short career. Great whenever he was on the field. Similar to John McGraw in that respect.
72. Pete Browning CF (70) - He's on the board again. I just don't think the AA was all that good when Browning dominated it, he was a good player, but his stats need serious deflation. The bat was great, the D was awful and the career was short.
73. Gil Hodges 1B (71) - I don't see how he can be ranked above Vernon.
74. Larry Doyle 2B (72) - Another good pre-Ruth 2B, but he wasn't very good defensively, and the position wasn't even difficult at the time. I see him as similar as a hitter to Bob Elliott through 1950. He should be compared to post-war 3B, not 2B. He wasn't as good as Elliott defensively either.
75. Eddie Yost 3B (73) - Very good player, that OBP was amazing, +.051 vs. league average, despite hitting just .254 for his career. Bad D at 3B though, and not much power.
76. Sherm Lollar C (74) - Good player, somewhat forgotten by history. Catcher bonus gets him on the ballot.

Joe,

How do you have Phil Rizzuto on your ballot and Dave Bancroft not in your top 76? I see Rizzuto's war-adjusted value being extremely similar to Bancroft's actual value. Both men played key roles on pennant and WS-winning teams. I, too, adjust for league quality, but still...

1974 Ballot

<u>Only newcomers and Top 20 outfielders have comments</u>. For my opinion on catchers, infielders, and pitchers, see posts 88-90 and 94-95 in the 1973 Ballot Discussion thread.

Each player has their 1973 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Whitey Ford (was #1) and Cool Papa Bell (was #10).

1. Mickey Mantle (new)

I argue he had the greatest combination of the "five tools" ever. Who else is in this discussion? Cobb? Speaker? Oscar Charleston? Mays? Barry Bonds? Eric Davis? Further submissions are welcome.

2. Ed Mathews (new)

One of the most consistently great players at any position.

3. Jose Mendez (2)
4. Joe Gordon (3)
5. Quincy Trouppe (4)
6. Billy Pierce (6)
7. Alejandro Oms (5)

Under-appreciated thus far. Like Jose Mendez, he was a dominant player for almost a decade in very strong Cuban leagues.

8. Dick Redding (7)
9. Wally Schang (8)
10. Nellie Fox (9)
11. George Sisler (11)

Sisler enjoyed a long career with good and bad spots. He had the ability to pitch well, and he was an absolutely brilliant and scary player at his peak.

12. Ralph Kiner (14)

I tend not to promote short-career slugging outfielders, but Kiner's peak is outstanding in a high-value league context. For that reason, I switched him and Minoso this week.

13. Joe Sewell (13)
14. Orestes Minoso (12)

A longtime team-mate of Nellie Fox, who had a wee bit more value to the White Sox teams of the '50s.

15. Biz Mackey (off)

Mackey joins my ballot [and Alejandro Oms drops two slots]. I had been slightly over-valuing outfielders in relation to catchers and infielders.

16-20: Gavvy Cravath, Vic Willis (15), Tommy Leach, Willard Brown, Jake Beckley.

21-25: Mickey Welch, Addie Joss, Edd Roush, Charley Jones, Bob Elliott.

1974 ballot. A different set of M&M boys make their mark.

1. Mickey Mantle(-). 3 MVPs, 3 2nd place finishes. Yeah he had a decent peak.

2. Eddie Mathews (-). 3rd base masher, he gets the easy pass to the HOM.

3. Dick Redding (2). So the HOF missed him – doesn’t take away from the fact he could pitch well.

4. Edd Roush (3). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

5. Bob Johnson (4). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 102.2 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history…

6. Rube Waddell (6). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

7. Jimmy Ryan (5). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

8. Tommy Leach (7). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little.

9. Biz Mackey (8). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

10. Hugh Duffy (9). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

11. Billy Pierce (12). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

12. Frank Chance (11). The rate stats are very impressive. His problem is on the amount of time played. Had some speed for his day as well.

13. Dobie Moore (13). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

14. Alejandro Oms (14). Sweet-swinging outfielder, probably have a harder time projecting him since he got to the States more rarely than some other foreign-born players.

15. Tony Mullane (15). Count in the house! Apollo of the Box shows up every 15 years or so on the ballot, maybe a bit longer this time as the ballot thins. Have him higher than Welch for the era despite playing in the AA.

16-20: Sewell, Minoso, Childs, Mays, Mendez
21-25: F. Jones, Van Haltren, Browning, Shocker, Berger
26-30: Poles, Walters, Kiner, Easter, Sisler
31-35: Byrd, Gordon, Willard Brown, Welch, Keller
36-40: Lundy, Ben Taylor, Joss, Veach, Elliot
41-45: Stephens, Luque, Bridges, McGraw, Beckley
46-50: Doyle, Trouppe, Maranville, Willis, Cicotte

Top 10 Returnees: I’ve got a bunch: Sisler (#30), Van Haltren (#22), Willard Brown (#33), Gordon (#32), Minoso (#17), Kiner (#28). So really I’m not far from the concensus since they all make the top 35.

New guys: Colovito stays on the consideration list but fairly far down – eyeballing it I would say in the 80s. Maris down below that.

1974 Ballot

1. Mantle, Mickey

2. Mathews, Eddie -- I was surprised to see that Mantle earned more defensive WS per 1,000 innings in the outfield than Mathews did at third base. Still, no amount of trouble by Mathews at third can diminish his hitting. Defense is still just defense. Elevating the importance of defense to the importance of hitting would be a fundamental error, though often made.

3. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

6. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

7. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

8. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

9. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

10. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defensive outfielders really contribute little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

11. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Clarkson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

12. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32.

13. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

14. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon.

15. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction, though if Doerr is a HoMer so is Gordon.

Required Disclosure(s):

Van Haltren, George – My traditional Van Haltren groan is in suspension, since it is overwhelmed by the one associated with Bell’s election and the fact that two ordinary guys are in the top 10 now but not in my top 50 (see below).

Redding, Dick – Not even part of my consideration set, and my consideration set has 100 members.

Mendez, Jose – I guess it won’t surprise anyone that I’ve got Mendez #65, given how much I differ from the electorate on Cool Papa and Redding.

Who broke Mickey’s single season slugging percentage record for switch-hitters? Answer below.

Do you mean career slugging? Because Mantle's the only switch-hitter I can find on the single-season SLG leaderboard, but Lance Berkman's a few percentage points ahead of Mantle's career record.

Ardo, Bancroft just sort of fell out of the consideration set at some point, slipped through the cracks. I actually voted for him at one point. He should be in there somewhere. My guess is that he'll probably be somewhere between 16 and 25 next week. Thanks for the catch. IMO, he's clearly better than Sewell.

Clearly may have been an overstatement in #72. I would say they are close, but I prefer the fact that Bancroft played 15 years at SS to Sewell's 8.

I definitely think that as group we've somewhat underrated the great glove middle infielders.

These are the times that <strike>try</strike> tax men’s <strike>souls</strike> billfolds. I’m usually done with the furshlugginer taxes by now, not this year. Just in case it drags on into Monday, here’s the ballot.

1974 ballot:

1. Mickey Mantle: Easy #1. Mantle for peak, Mays for career, Mays overall. Willie just said goodbye to America, he’ll be eligible in ’79, my favorite player. Mantle’s really high on my favorites list, too.

2. Eddie Mathews: Easy #2. Best 3b so far by a wide margin, and will be pretty tough to beat.

3. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. The sharp break in performance may have killed his chances. The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. Is his time coming? (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

4. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

5. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. Was the #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia, now he’s in. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

6. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

7. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

8. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

9. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

10. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

11. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961)

12. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

13. Willard Brown: Must have been a great bad-ball hitter. Why would anyone throw him a strike? I’ve had trouble making up my mind about him. His being elected to the HOF helps him make it on. (eligible 1958)

14. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

15. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)


Required comments:
George Van Haltren: I wasn’t that crazy about him in the ‘20s, and the field of candidates is much better and deeper now. Very solid performer, but no suggestion of greatness.
Joe Gordon: He’s lurking, around 20th.
Jose Mendez: Likewise lurking, in top 25. Could well move up.

New folks:
Ellie: I agree there's more there than meets the eye considering the circumstances of his career. I'll take a closer look once I shake these 1040 blues.
Rocky: He deserves a closer look, too. Don't think any of the others do.

PHOM off-ballot: Beckley (1926), Browning (1927), Welch (1929), Duffy (1940)

HOM not PHOM: Ashburn, Slaughter, Vance, Averill, Beckwith, Ferrell, Kelley, Sheckard, Jennings, Pike, Pearce, Jackson.

PHOM not HOM: Welch, Grimes, Waddell, Redding, Bresnahan, Mackey, Beckley, Sisler, Sewell, Browning, Duffy, Minoso.

Who broke Mickey’s single season slugging percentage record for switch-hitters? Answer below.

Do you mean career slugging? Because Mantle's the only switch-hitter I can find on the single-season SLG leaderboard, but Lance Berkman's a few percentage points ahead of Mantle's career record.

I screwed it up, I Extra-base hits in the American League
The answer is Carlos Beltran - I won a free dinner on a KC radio call in show with that one time.

1974 ballot.

1. Mickey Mantle - You're so fine, you blow my mind.
2. Eddie Mathews - Count me among his top supporters. In my system, he is tentatively the best 3B of all time and among the top 10 position players.
3. Wally Schang - Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.
4. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL.
5. Joe Gordon - Significant WWII credit. I have him above Doerr.
6. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven.
7. Jose Mendez - Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; perhaps a slightly better version of Lefty Gomez.
8. Nellie Fox - WS likes him, WARP doesn't. My system rates IF highly; he jumped when I starting using less extreme league factors.
9. Gil Hodges - For strength of the 1950s NL and for being the best or among the best 1B throughout his prime.
10. Bob Friend - I might be his only friend. Maybe I'm still favoring later pitchers too much, but not as extreme as before. In any case, a lot of quality innings in a relatively strong league.
11. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on the ballot.
12. Lefty Gomez - Peak-season bonus for his two Cy-Young type seasons boost him onto the ballot.
13. Dutch Leonard (Emil)- Not one outstanding quality, but lots of very good in a long career.
14. Billy Pierce - Many very good seasons.
15. Curt Simmons - A suprise in my system. Similar case to Pierce. Helped by my league factors which suggest that pitching was stronger in the NL during his time.

Mackey was one of the top NeL catchers and is just off my ballot.
Van Haltren and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s OF and IF.
Sisler was a good player, but because of his injury, his prime wasn't quite long/strong enough for me.
Willard Brown was one of the top NeL hitters of the 1940s. I look forward to the coming NeL statistical encyclopedia to see whether I may be underrating him.
Redding was a fine player, but I'd elect NeL pitchers Mendez and Byrd before Redding.

Elston Howard probably makes the best case of the non-NB’s this year, but – although he appeared ready – with his lack of playing time in the 50s he falls short of a convincing case. The rest are backlog consideration specials.

1. Mickey Mantle (n/a), N.Y. (A), CF (‘51-‘68) (1974) – Just below the top 10% of HOMers. Only because of injuries no doubt.
2. Eddie Mathews (n/a), Milw. (N), 3B (’52-’68) (1974) – Even in the HOM, the stunning lack of great third basemen compared to the other positions comes sharply into focus with Mathews’ eligibility: Eddie, (big gap) Jud, Beckwith, Deacon, (big enough to drive a truck through gap), Hack.
3. Willard Brown (1), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
4. Alejandro Oms (2), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
5. Biz Mackey (4), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967) – Near equal value as Cochrane in my system, but needed the 3000 more AB’s to achieve that. It shouldn’t take long now.
6. Billy Pierce (5), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot.
7. Joe Gordon (6), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) (1968) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable. .
8. Dutch Leonard (7), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
9. Dizzy Trout (8), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
10. Bucky Walters (9), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value.
11. Phil Rizzuto (10), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) (1972) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59) (1973) –
12. George Van Haltren (11), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
--. Joe Medwick, St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) –
13. Dom DiMaggio (12), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
14. Bob Johnson (13), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
15. Joe Sewell (14), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.


George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Minnie Minoso – Just off ballot, but very much in contention with VH, Medwick, DiMaggio, Johnson and Beckley for those last 1B-OF spots.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.

1974 Ballot

1. (new) Mickey Mantle. About as good as you can be.

2. (new) Eddie Mathews. See comment above. Odd how you don’t hear more about him.

3. (2) Dobie Moore. The evidence presented on his thread suggests that he was a great player for longer than a Jennings-esque 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his army years, his career looks to me to be of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

4. (3) Larry Doyle. I assume he’s not on more ballots because of competition concerns with the 10s NL, BP’s defensive assessment, and his short-ish career, none of which seems persuasive to me. On the plus side, Doyle was a power-hitting second baseman who was consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct., won an MVP award, and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. I realize this is not the majority view, but I have no problem thinking he was a better player than Bobby Doerr.

5. (4) Edd Roush. There are some odd things about his career, but he was one of the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

6. (5) Nellie Fox. Sort of the anti-Larry Doyle, but I like Fox a lot. He was durable, consistent, got on base, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. I think that adds up to a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.

7. (6) George Sisler. I don’t give him much credit for his post-1922 career, but he was truly an outstanding, if overrated, player for almost a decade before that. To my mind the argument for him is about the same as that as for Medwick or Averill.

8. (7) Minnie Minoso. NeL credit bumps up his career value. Like Sisler, we’ve elected several players he seems comparable to.

9. (8) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, or Doyle, who has about 600 more PAs, but I like him better than the three 1890s OFs.

10. (9) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Whitey Ford other then their teammates. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.

11. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. I’ve never been sure where to put GVH. His peak wasn’t as high as most of the other players on this ballot, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

12. (12) Rube Waddell. Probably deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even factoring in concerns about unearned runs and durability, those are some impressive numbers.

13. (13) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF. With reasonable war credit, I like Gordon more than Doerr as well.

14. (14) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times. A very solid pitcher who seems easy to overlook, much like his former teammates Trout and Trucks.

15. (15) Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

Next 5
16. Bucky Walters
17. Willard Brown
18. Quincy Trouppe
19. Charlie Keller
20. George J. Burns

Required disclosures:
Biz Mackey, Dick Redding, Willard Brown, Jose Mendez. I’ve got all of these guys between 17 (Brown) and 30 (Mackey). I don't think we would go wrong inducting any of them.

42 ballots tallied up to this point. Still missing ballots from: karlmagnus (!), andrew siegel (!), Gadfly, Kelly in SD, Chris Cobb (!), Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Max Parkinson, KJOK, and caspiann 88.

how long do you usually wait?

Balloting closes at 8 pm EST on alternating Mondays.

Thanks, Howie.

BTW, karlmagnus just sent me an e-mail that he was away in the UK last week and that he will file some time today.

Back from a week in Britain visiting the Grandma that isn’t Murphy – sorry to disappear unexpectedly. Anyway, here’s a belated 1974. Note I haven’t caught up yet; if anyone has had spectacular insights in the last week, please let me know so I can search the relevant thread.

Mantle and Mathews both NB – one forgets how good Mathews was. Howard short career and not very good – didn’t walk much – even with NEL credit he’s just off the bottom, being Schang minus a good chunk, or Clements (#64) minus a touch. Jackson shortish career, lowish ERA+, poorish W/L, off. Colavito short career, again near miss because he DID walk and his rate stats are good. Maris is Colavito minus, on length and quality. Lot of ballot near misses this year.

1. (N/A) Mickey Mantle. 2415 hits, OPS+172, TB+BB/PA ‘630, TB+BB/Outs 1.058; he’s not Williams or Mays and he’s a Yankee (albeit a DOOMED Yankee), but even so he’s #1. Not that short a career, interestingly.

2. (N/A) Eddie Mathews So busy walking and hitting homers he forgot to get many hits – only 2315 in a longish career. OPS+143, TB+BB/PA .573, TB+BB/Outs .894. Being a 3B and not an outfielder puts him ahead of Beckley, who lasted longer.

3. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

4. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

5. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

6. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4-4-5) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

7. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

8. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

9. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

10. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

11. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

12. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

14. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER. Back on ballot to replace Griffith after almost 40 years – he fell off it in 1934.

15. (N/A-14) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

18. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.

23. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759
24. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
25. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
29. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
30. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
31. Billy Pierce.
32. Sal Maglie.
33. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
34. (N/A) Heinie Manush
35. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
36. Joe Gordon. OPS+120, but only 1530 hits. Short and only moderately impressive career; missed 2 war years, but had one easy one. Played for Yankees, so others softened up the pitchers for him – would be more plausible if he hadn’t had a lousy 1946. Have moved him up a bit on comparison with Stephens, but Stephens was better.
37. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
38. Bob Elliott
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
45. Kiki Cuyler
46. Deacon McGuire
47. Jack Quinn
48. Tony Mullane
49. Pye Traynor
50. Jim McCormick
51. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
52. Joe Judge
53. Edd Roush
54. Spotswood Poles.
55. Larry Doyle
56. Curt Simmons 193-183, 3348 IP, ERA+ 111, OPS+11. Redding’s pretty close, Quinn a little better.
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Harry Hooper.
60. Gil Hodges
61. Jules Thomas.
62. Wilbur Cooper
63. Bruce Petway.
64. Jack Clements
65. Bill Monroe
66. Jose Mendez
67. Herb Pennock
68. Chief Bender
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Jesse Tannehill
71. Bobby Veach
72. Lave Cross
73. Tommy Leach.
74. Tom York

John, you should have taken my money...

John, you should have taken my money...

Hey, I was pleasantly surprised myself. :-)

1974 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold)

1. Mickey Mantle
2. Eddie Mathews

The second-best, and best ever respectively at their positions (as of 1968, by the time Mays retires, he’ll drop Mantle to 3rd)

3. Dick Redding

One of the 3 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Redding, Mendez and Waddell), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

4. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

5. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

6. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak.

7. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little.

8. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

9. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

10. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

11. John McGraw

Went PHoM a couple of years ago.

12. Joe Sewell
13. Biz Mackey

He’ll get in soon enough…

14. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

15. Willard Brown

16-20. Burns (good), Minoso, Williamson, Veach, B. Taylor
21-25. Lazzeri, Bancroft, B. Johnson, Trouppe, Konetchy
26-30. Duffy, Hooper, Childs, Cuyler, Monroe
31-35. Klein, Youngs, Tiernan, Kiner, Keller (Hello, peak OFs)
36-40. F. Jones, Traynor, Roush, Gordon, Walters
41-45. Shocker, Schang, E. Howard, Leach, Beckley
46-50. B. Bradley, Ryan, Cicotte, Nicholson, Chance

Previous Top 10s:
Joe Gordon is at 39.
Beckley is 45.

GVH is not my kind of hitter (decent prime but not a great peak). He’s at 88.

GVH is not my kind of hitter

Maybe not, Max, but is Chicago your kind of town?

1974 Ballot:

1. Mickey Mantle – He’s good.

2. Eddie Mathews – Also good.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

6. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

7. Jose Mendez – Moves up this year. Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

10. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

11. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

12. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

14. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

15. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

16. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

17. Joe Gordon – Very worthy player. With war credit ranks ahead of Doerr on my second baseman list. Should join him soon.

18. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

19. Willard Brown – Has the hitting I’m looking for, with a slight demerit for the walks. However, I see him as a good enshrinee.

20. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time. Seems we have a lot of second sackers hanging out in the foyer.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

George Van Haltren - Never the best in his time.

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.

1974 Ballot


1-Mickey Mantle 565 WS
Mickey is an obvious no-brainer. He’s one of the all-time greats. But I never cared much for him…he beat up on my west coast teams in the early 60s.

2-Eddie Mathews 450 WS
Here’s another no-brainer. My favorite Mathews stat is that he played for the Braves in three cities. In 1974 he is ranked by the most people in the top 3 for all-time 3B. Too bad he wasn’t with the Braves for HR number 500.

3-Biz Mackey
I can’t find a good reason to not rank him number 1 this year. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop. Biz taught Campy how to play the position so he must’ve been something to watch.

4-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick Redding was given the shaft on February 27.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. He’s getting closer all the time!

6-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

7-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

8-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of the most overlooked ballplayers in history…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

11-Gil Hodges 263 WS
Gil would be making big bucks in the AL if he was playing today. He would be a great DH/1B right-handed hitting slugger. He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM.

12-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Minnie had one of the most interesting careers in baseball history. With a late start he still made 7 All-Star teams. His SB numbers would be off the chart if they ran more in the 50s. Some credit for Negro Leagues.

13-Willard Brown
He didn’t get much of a chance with the Browns. But some reports claim Brown was the top power hitter in the Negro Leagues in the 1940s.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-George Sisler 292 WS
Yes…I broke down and added him to my ballot. I had Ralph Kiner next in line and knew I had to take another look. Strong Gray Ink and good Black Ink marks. His OPS ranking dropped in the mid-20s…but he was getting old.

Mendez is in my top 20...just falls short.

Computer ate 2 ballots this week and having a second chils makes things exponetially harder. To kepp my perfect streak of ballots going, I hope you will all foregive a low-comment entry this week:

(1) Mantle(new)--Duh
(2) Mathews (new)--Duh
(3) Duffy (4th)--Most of the extra WS seem to be capturing something real.
(4) Roush (1st)--WS, WARP, OPS+, and HoF all agree on his worth.
(5) Minoso (3rd)--Has the prime; extra credit gives him the career.
(6) Moore (2nd)--Room for some Negro League peak/prime candidates in the Hall.
(7) Mendez (8th)--Ditto.
(8) Van Haltren(5th)-- His numbers don't translate into the same leaguye ranks they would have earned 2 deaces later (see Roush).
(9) Beckley (7th)--A Smidege behind GVH.
(10) Gordon (9th)--Leader of a tightly packed next dozen.
(11) Sisler (11th)--Prime excellent if you adjust for the war.
(12) Leach (10th)--Forgotten star of athe aughts.
(13) Trouppe (12th)--Best catcher avilable.
(14) Sewell (13th)--Consistently top 10 in league.
(15) Oms (15th)--Subjectively and objectively qualified.

Brown is close but harmed by lack of plate discipline. Mackey (not enogh bat) and Redding (not enough on the stat sheet) are not.

3-Biz Mackey
I can’t find a good reason to not rank him number 1 this year.

Ah, the curse of the leftover comment. I dare say you found two good reasons, both beginning with the letter "M".

Mickey is an obvious no-brainer. He’s one of the all-time greats. But I never cared much for him…he beat up on my west coast teams in the early 60s.

Since there were only 3 west coast teams in the early 60s and Mantle went a combined 5 for 40 in the WS v. the '62 Giants and the '63 Dodgers, I assume you are referring to the expansion LA Angels. What did you expect?

A new record for typos!

To recap my balloting:
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots.

I'm in the process of figuring decade by decade comparisons. I’ll be finished for the 1975 election. It is looking like Minoso and Gordon are definitely going to be beneficiaries of the revamp.

1974 Ballot

PHOM Inductees: Mickey Mantle and Eddie Mathews

1. Mickey Mantle: One of the top 10 position players of all-time so far. He, Mays, Cobb, Speaker, and Charleston are miles beyond any other centerfielder in my rankings. Best player of the 1950s.

2. Eddie Mathews: The best third baseman so far by a significant margin.

3. Mickey Welch - Wrongfully ignored at the beginning of balloting. The weight of the evidence: record against other HoMers, number of innings pitched, similarity to other HoMers.

4. Charley Jones - Fantastic hitter from 1876-1885. I believe some voters are not taking into account that he was blacklisted for 2.16 seasons. Please see the Keltner List I posted on the Charley Jones/Lip Pike Thread for my reasoning. The weight of the evidence – best player on his teams every year, top 10 or top 5 among position players every year. Great OPS+. A dominant player from 1876 to 1886.

5. Pete Browning - Fantastic hitter.

6. Hugh Duffy - Very good hitter and fantastic defender. He is 5th among position players in the 1890s by my system. Working on the Keltner List for him.

Yes, I have my Olde-Timey Teddy Bears.
But Jones ranks ahead of the following HoMer LFs in my system: Stovey, Magee, Kelley, Sheckard, Goslin, Wheat, Medwick, and Irvin.
Browning ranks ahead of the following HoMer CFs: Averill, Doby, and Ashburn and is comparable in peak, prime, and seasonal to Gore, Snider, Hines, and Hamilton.
Duffy is right behind Browning and I feel people have disregarded the fact his A+ outfield grade is made from less than half time in CF.

7. Charlie Keller - Great power and on-base skills. Credit for WWII - 1.75 seasons. 6 years where only Williams, DiMaggio, and Musial were better. Better than Kelley, Sheckard, Goslin, Wheat, Medwick, and Irvin. One of the biggest surprises in this whole experiment.

8. Quincy Troupe - Good hitting catcher who took walks and played forever at a high level. James says he was an All-Star in 23 different leagues, but gives no source. Cut that in half and that is still 11.5 times. Wow.

9. Jose Mendez – see Vic Willis comment

10. Bucky Walters – see Vic Willis comment

11. Willard Brown

12. Alejandro Ohms
Brown and Ohms had careers that my system loves – great high-all-star level play for 7 or more years with many other surrounding years. Brown was a phenomenal power hitter. Ohms hit for average and took more walks. Both players are worthy enshrinement in the HoM.

13. Cupid Childs - Dominant second baseman of the 1890s. There is no real competition. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year. There were very few infielders to do well with WS in the 1890s.

14. Vic Willis.
Ranking in League / Majors by win shares:
Walters: 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Willis: 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 8, 9, 9, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 18, 20, 20+
Mendez had a Koufax-ian peak 5 years from 1910 to 1914 with his performances against white teams as a bonus.
1910: 28 win shares would be 7th in the majors, 3rd in NL or 5th in AL behind: Jack Coombs 37, Walter Johnson and Ed Walsh 36, Ford 35, Mathewson 30, Three Finger Brown 29.
1911: 31 win shares would be tied for 3rd in the majors, tied for 3rd in the NL and tied for 1st in the AL behind: GC Alexander 34, Mathewson 32 and tied with Rucker, Johnson, and Walsh
1912: 40+ win shares would be 3rd in the majors, 1st in the NL and 3rd in the AL behind: Johnson 47 and Joe Wood 44 and tied with Walsh 40.
1913: 31 win shares would be 3rd in the majors, 1st in the NL and 3rd in the AL behind: Johnson 54 and Russel 32.
1914: 36 win shares would be tied for 2nd in majors, tied for 1st in NL and 2nd in AL behind: Johnson 38 and tied with Bill James 36.
1923: 21 win shares would be tied for 13th in majors, 5th in NL and 8th in AL.
These numbers could be increased by 1 or 2 each year for batting contributions if you wish.

15. Tommy Leach. 5 times in the top 4 players in NL, plus 2 others in top 7. If you like defense and you believe 3rd base was more important of a defensive position in the Dead-Ball Era, I urge to take a look at him. Also, he was an excellent defensive CF’er. A key, along with Fred Clarke and Honus Wagner to Pittsburgh’s great teams in the first 15 years of the century.

16. Dobie Moore: Holway has him as an All-Star for 6 straight years, 1920 – 1925. Based on Chris Cobb’s numbers from post 7 of the Moore thread, best short stop in the majors in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, 1925 and second in 1923. Hit for average and power. I give 4 years of credit for Wrecker play.

17-21: Chance, Redding, Burns, Kiner, Grimes
Dick Redding is moving closer to my ballot. I had not been giving him any World War I credit. I am now giving him credit and that boosts him some.
Redding ranks by translated win shares:
1911: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Mendez and the 5 pitchers listed above plus Ford and Gregg (each had 28)
1915: 40 win shares would rank him 3rd behind Alexander 43 and Johnson 42 and miles ahead of anyone else.
1916: 33 win shares would rank him 4th behind Alexander 44, Ruth 37, and Johnson 36.
1917: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Alexander 40, Ruth 36, Cheater 35, Bagby 34, Mays 30, Johnson and Coveleski 29.
1920: 19 win shares would rank him between 16th and 20th in the majors.
1921: 21 win shares would rank him 15th in the majors.
1922: 19 win shares would rank him about 20th in the majors.
Redding is missing a 5th big year that would put him easily on the ballot.

22-26: Cooper, Cravath, Minoso, Mackey, Van Haltren
Mackey lacks the big years that catchers of his era had. Look at Cochrane, Dickey, and Hartnett. Mackey is great defensively and I would not look askance at his election to the HoM, but I do not believe he is the best catcher candidate.
Minoso: Not enough big years.
George Van Haltren: He had the over 25 win shares seasons my system likes, but during the 1890s, the best outfielders got 30+ a year. It was the best decade to be an outfielder. GVH does not match his cohort group for achievement.

30. George Sisler: Peak and prime are not high enough to balance out career totals that are not remarkable. Hit counting numbers are greatly influenced by playing in the best batting average park of his day.

31. Joe Gordon: I need to reevaluate 1940s and 1950s infielders. I think he is much better than Bobby Doerr. In neutral parks, Gordon is a much better hitter. I think many voters have not considered the Coors Field-like hitting environment that was Fenway Park in the 1940s. Doerr hit 223 career homers to Gordon’s 253, but he hit 145 of them at Fenway. From the first BJHBA, here are Gordon’s and Doerr’s Road Numbers:
Player G HR AVG OBP SLG
Doerr 911 78 .261 .327 .389
Gordon 797 134 .279 .367 .482
Which one is the better player?

1974 Ballot

Been traveling. I had access to the web, so I followed most of the conversation of the past week, but I didn’t have my files with me, so I am voting later than usual.

1. Mickey Mantle. Best hitter between Williams and Bonds?
2. Eddie Mathews. Most underrated player of all time?
3. Dick Redding (2). Reexamination of my system benefits players from 1910s over players from 1920s. It’s hard to get a clear sense of how good his peak was, but his career is #4 among NeL pitchers after Paige, Williams, and Ray BrownAdj. rank in 1910s: #13.5. 1+ seasons war credit. 304 MLE cws, 104 tp, pr 14-18 34.78/365 ip, 10 seasons at/above avg.
4. Willard Brown (3) I haven’t integrated the improved walk rates into my system yet, but downward adjustment of 1920s players moves him past Oms. Adj. rank in 1940s: #14. 2 seasons war credit. 375 MLE cws, 69 tp, pr 35-39 = 27.40, 12 seasons at/above avg.
5. Joe Gordon (4). Bests Doerr on peak, but both should be HoMers. Adj. rank in 1940s: #15.5. 2 seasons war credit. 317 cws, 64 tp (I increase infielders’ cws and peak ws by 10% when comparing them to other positions), pr 39-43 = 28.52, 11 seasons at/above avg.
6. Jose Mendez (5). Moves up with Redding, but not quite so much. Best pitching peak on the board, and his comeback play in the 1920s gives him enough career value for election, as I see it. And so did Cooperstown, apparently. Adj. rank in 1910s. 14.5. 260 MLE cws, 112 total peak, pr 10-14 = 38.97 / 365 ip, 7 seasons at/above avg.
7. Alejandro Oms (7). Did everything well for a long time. Drops in my rankings somewhat as a result of my reexamination of my division of players between the 1920s and 1930s, but it’s still clear that he belongs. Adj. rank in 1920s: #17. 357 MLE cws, 78 tp, pr 21-25 = 30.11 / 162 g, 9 seasons at/above avg.
8. Minnie Minoso (8). A lot like Ashburn and Oms in that he had a long, strong, consistent prime without having a really outstanding peak (Van Haltren is also in this category, but his performance level was slightly lower than theirs). That, and WARP’s lukewarm view of him are keep him below Doerr and Oms, but I’ll take his lasting, well-rounded game over the sluggers just below. Adj. 1950s rank: #16.5. 3 seasons MLE credit. 353 cws, 73 tp, pr 54-59 = 29.39. 11 seasons at/above avg.
9. Gavvy Cravath (10). Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. Adj. 1910s rank: #16. 5 seasons MLE credit. 334 cws, 71 tp, pr 13-17 = 32.27, 9 seasons at/above average.
10. Ralph Kiner (11). Great peak versus strong competition. Adj. 1940s rank: #17.5. 2 seasons war credit. 300 cws, 72 tp, pr 47-52 = 33.00, 8 seasons at/above avg.
11. Biz Mackey (12). With Maranville, and Long in my down-ballot trio of fielding stars. Adj. 1920s rank: #20. 390 MLE cws (catcher-adj.), 47 tp, pr 22-28 = 25.23, 10 seasons at/above avg.
12. Rabbit Maranville (13). If the lively ball hadn’t been introduced in the middle of his career, I suspect he would already be in the HoM. Relatively low number of above-average seasons relative to his career is a concern, and I’m going to continue to evaluate Maranville & Long-type infielder careers against the Sewell-type of career. This ranking represents my current best sense of the relative merits of the two types. Adj. 1910s rank: #17. 1 season war credit. 361 cws, 32 tp, pr 14-19 = 26.78, 8 seasons at/above avg.
13. Herman Long (14). Similar career to Maranville. A bit shorter, a bit higher peak. Adj. 1890s rank #18.5. 336 cws, 40 5p, pr 89-93 = 30.54, 8 seasons at/above avg.
14. Burleigh Grimes (15). Another 1920s player slides down a bit. His mix of good and bad seasons is peculiar, but he had a lot of good years. I think my system tends to overrate this kind of pitcher slightly, which is why I have him ranked slightly below where it says I should put him. Adj. 1920s rank: #19. 303 cws, 133 tp, pr 20-24 = 27.33 / 325 ip. 11 seasons at/above avg.
15. Billy Pierce (16). Makes my ballot for the first time. Much more consistently good than Grimes, but less heft to his career. Adj. 1950s rank: #19. 282 cws, 107 tp, pr 55-59 = 30.77 / 305 ip, 12 seasons at/above avg.

Other New Players of Note

Elston Howard. A very tough player to rank. His peak is outstanding for a catcher, his career is not. Deserves some MLE credit prior to his major-league debut, but it’s not clear how much. My main concern with giving him lots of MLE credit is that his hitting was pretty weak for several seasons even after he reached the majors. Like Campanella (and other catchers) he may have developed late as a hitter. Right now, he’s not all that close to my ballot, but I haven’t had time to study him as carefully as I wanted this week, so his ranking is still very much up in the air.

No other new candidates are serious ballot contenders, although there were several very fine players. Colavito was good enough, but he wasn’t good enough for long enough.

if anyone has had spectacular insights in the last week, please let me know so I can search the relevant thread.

Oooh,ooh, I did, I did. It's at http://blogspot.metaphysics.transfiguration.com/answer/42-sunndyday2.html

Finally, an unexciting election. Given the amount of work I have around tax time, I have absolutely no complaints. Mantle and Matthews make my PHoM.

1. Mickey Mantle (new) As much as I appreciate his talent, the huge amount of love his fans had for him makes it clear that there was even more than meets the statistical eye.

2. Eddie Matthews (new) Another one of the true greats, and definitely underrated.

3. Willard Brown (2) Moves past Leach and Monroe for 2 main reasons: 1)More recent analysis has made me feel more certain about his value, and less concerned about the walks, and 2)I am concerned about under-representing the late 40s and 50s. Made my PHoM in 1967.

4. Tommy Leach (3) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Funny that he slips after a lot of people pushing for him on a recent ballot discussion thread, but the season-by-season analysis wasn't flattering. Made my PHoM in 1940.

5. Bill Monroe (4) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Joe Sewell (5) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. With one possible exception, clearly the best SS on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Dobie Moore (6) The possible exception, because we honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

8. Dick Redding (7) I think I'm settling the Redding/Mendez debate by eventually putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. Made my PHoM this year.

9. Quincy Trouppe (8) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

10. Cupid Childs (9) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932

11. Minnie Minoso (10) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Like Brown, gets a bit of an era boost, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Made my PHoM in 1971

12. Jose Mendez (11) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer.

13. George Van Haltren (12) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM lin 1972

(13A Red Ruffing, 13B Bobby Doerr)

14. Billy Pierce (13) This could turn right back around next year, but I have to admit there isn't much separating him from Ruffing.

(14A Joe Medwick)

15. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

(15A Richie Ashburn)

16. Gavvy Cravath (15) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Rixey, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.
17. Joe Gordon (16) Extremely similar to Doerr.
18. Bus Clarkson (17) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
(18A Cool Papa Bell, 18B Max Carey)
19. Jake Beckley. (19) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
20. Biz Mackey (20) I don’t really see him as induction-worthy, but maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
21. Phil Rizzuto (21) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
22. Alejandro Oms (22) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
23. Clark Griffith (23) Still don't see him as much of a standout in his era, but he did compile a lot of good pitching.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Charlie Keller (24) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
25. Bob Elliott (26) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
26. Ben Taylor (27) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
27. Nellie Fox (25) Just can't have him ahead of Doerr & Gordon. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
28. Vern Stephens (28) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
(28A Hughie Jennings)
29. Charley Jones (37) An impressive career, but even with extra credit it still feels a little short, and his AA peak isn’t in the strong era of the league.
30. Rube Waddell (29) The ERA and strikeouts look impressive, but I don't feel it added up to enough.
31. George Sisler (30) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
32. Roger Bresnahan
33. Ralph Kiner
34. Elston Howard (new) Not going to make it unless we start giving out stuck-behind-Yogi credit.
35. Bobby Veach
36. Bucky Walters
37. Tony Lazzeri
38. Edd Roush
39. Ernie Lombardi
40. Pie Traynor
41. Rocky Colavito (new) Better than I expected, but still a ways from the ballot.

Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. MICKEY MANTLE, CF. 73 POW, 164 WARP1, 1009 RCAP & .801 OWP in 9,909 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Welcome to the HOM Mr. Mantle.

2. EDDIE MATHEWS, 3B. 52 POW, 130 WARP1, 704 RCAP & .632 OWP in 10,101 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. One of greatest 3Bmen ever.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

9. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

10. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

11. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

14. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

15. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
ROCKY COLAVITO, RF. 23 POW, 82 WARP1, 196 RCAP & .627 OWP in 7,559 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Well behind Bob Johnson.

LARRY JACKSON, P.16 POW, 82 WARP1, 164 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 113 ERA+ in 3,262 innings. Falls behind Mays/Shocker/Grimes/Cooper/Hoyt glut.

RETURNEES:

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr and Childs.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr, Childs, & Gordon.