I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Don Drysdale-P (n/e): Impressive peak (even if it wasn't Koufax-like) and a fairly long career for his generation of pitchers. He's a HoMer in my book. Best ML pitcher of 1960.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (4): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

4) Joe Gordon-2B (5): Best second baseman of the 1940's when you give him appropriate WWII credit. Best major league second baseman for 1940, 1942, 1943, and 1947. Best AL second baseman for 1939 and 1941.

5) Willard Brown-CF/LF/SS (6): Eric's new MLEs may give Brown that extra-added push. His HOF induction probably wont hurt, either.

6) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (8): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

7) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (9): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

8) Pie Traynor-3B (10): Best white third baseman of his time (though Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

9) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

10) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (12): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

11) Burleigh Grimes-P (13): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

12) Mickey Welch-P (14): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

14) Bucky Walters-P (n/e): Back on my ballot. The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

15) George Sisler-1B (n/e): Because of my re-reevaluation of Tony Mullane (that's what happens when mixing old and new systems :-), Sisler finally makes my ballot (I had mentioned he was next-in-line for the past couple of elections, so this isn't a matter of helping my consensus score). Great player at his peak, but unquestionably a mediocre (at best) player after 1922, which didn't add much to his overall value. Best AL first baseman for 1916 and 1922. Best ML first baseman for 1917, 1919, and 1920 (very close in 1916 and 1922).

Mackey, Redding, Mendez, and Ralph Kiner all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

and we're off! The race is on. Remember gentlemen, this is a marathon, not a sprint

1975 ballot
Glasscock and Meyerle make my PHOM this year

1. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
4. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
5. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
6. Biz Mackey was (almost missed this one) another Cooperstown mistake (made my personal HoM in 1949)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
28. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
29. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
30. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
31. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
32. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (makes my personal HoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Drysdale is just of my ballot (thats from the 34)
Joe Gordon would need a real lot of war credit to even approach my ballot (and no discounts)
Willard Brown, Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe Leaudge stats seem to show he lacked

yest - a question for you. For 3 different guys, you mention their homer titles as their big positive note. Yet the guy with 7 titles (Kiner) is 13th, while two guys with only 4 titles (Hack and Klein) are above him in 12th and 7th respectively. I assume you have other reasons for their placements. Maybe you should include those so people can understand your reasoning.

Drysdale’s a clear margin better than Pierce, but not as good as Waddell, Leever or Cicotte, and hence is around the bottom of my ballot. Boyer’s not as good as Elliott, but only marginally below. Flood doesn’t make the consideration set as a hitter, nor does White (short career.)

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4-4-5-6) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

11. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

12. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER. Back on ballot to replace Griffith after almost 40 years – he fell off it in 1934.

13. (N/A) Don Drysdale 3431 IP at 121 ERA+, but only 209-166 for a championship team. 45 OPS+ also a mild positive. So’s 40 IP of postseason with a 7-6 record. Better than Pierce, not quite
as good as Waddell. I had Koufax just off the bottom of my ballot, so Drysdale’s a little better.

14. (N/A-14-15) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

15. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

21. Willard Brown. If he’d been a SS for the whole of his career he’d be close to Doerr or even a little above, but he was mostly a CF.

22. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759
23. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
24. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
25. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
26. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
27. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
28. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
29. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
30. Billy Pierce.
31. Sal Maglie.
32. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
33. (N/A) Heinie Manush
34. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
35. Joe Gordon. OPS+120, but only 1530 hits. Short and only moderately impressive career; missed 2 war years, but had one easy one. Played for Yankees, so others softened up the pitchers for him – would be more plausible if he hadn’t had a lousy 1946. Have moved him up a bit on comparison with Stephens, but Stephens was better.
36. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
37. Bob Elliott
38. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. Biz Mackey. Not quite as good as Schang, very similar to McGuire. Better than Bell, though.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
45. Kiki Cuyler
46. Deacon McGuire
47. Jack Quinn
48. Tony Mullane
49. Pye Traynor
50. Jim McCormick
51. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
52. Joe Judge
53. Edd Roush
54. Spotswood Poles.
55. Larry Doyle
56. Curt Simmons 193-183, 3348 IP, ERA+ 111, OPS+11. Redding’s pretty close, Quinn a little better.
57. Roger Bresnahan.
58. Wayte Hoyt.
59. Harry Hooper.
60. Gil Hodges
61. Jules Thomas.
62. Wilbur Cooper
63. Bruce Petway.
64. Jack Clements
65. Bill Monroe
66. Jose Mendez
67. Herb Pennock
68. Chief Bender
69. Ed Konetchy
70. Jesse Tannehill
71. Bobby Veach
72. Lave Cross
73. Tommy Leach.
74. Tom York

1975 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation.

1. Dick Redding May be more similar to Spahn/Roberts than we realize.

2. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor.

3. Larry Doyle I think the 1910’s NL is getting penalized more than the 1950’s AL. Second basemen with most career batting WS, through 1974 eligibles: (1) Eddie Collins 463.6. (2) Rogers Hornsby 443.7. (3) Nap Lajoie 398.8. (4) Charlie Gehringer 295.3. (5) Frankie Frisch 258.0. (6) Larry Doyle 237.5. (7) Billy Herman 219.0.

4. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT not really an issue.

5. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951. Third basemen with most career batting WS, through 1974 eligibles: (1) Eddie Mathews 387.4. (2) Jud Wilson (est) 320.1. (3) John Beckwith (est) 263.0. (4) Stan Hack 250.5. (4) Bob Elliott 237.5. (5) Frank Baker 235.0. (6) Tommy Leach 232.5.

6.Biz Mackey A better pure catcher than Bresnahan, with a lower hitting peak.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well.

8. Roger Bresnahan Best available major league catcher, by a good margin.

9. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter. Was he Koufax-good though?

10. Willard Brown New numbers boosted him, not the HOF vote.

11. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

12. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

13. Cupid Childs With the rise of Doerr/Gordon, I really looked at Child’s hitting peak recently, and came away less impressed.

14. Minnie Minoso In the Slaughter mold.

15. Don Drysdale I can’t quite leave him off the ballot.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

16. George Sisler

17. Ben Taylor

18. Alejandro Oms

19. Rube Waddell

20. Billy Pierce

Missing top 10

Joe Gordon – He really wasn’t a better hitter than Johnny Evers, even with a couple of years’ extra credit. (Evers 198.1 BWS in 1784 G. Gordon 172.8 BWS in 1566 G. Evers 18.0 BWS/162 G, Gordon 17.9 BWS/162G.)

Ralph Kiner – War credit would bring him to Bob Johnson. Unfortunately, I don’t give him much. Keller leapfrogs Kiner with war credit.


Some of the Newbies

Ken Boyer – Not enough bat for me.

Curt Flood – Not much different from Gus Bell with the bat.

Bill White – It’s ex-Cardinal week! Lu Blue redux.

Roy Face – Good, but I like Miller better, and neither enough for the ballot.

Copying Gadfly, I have instituted a Grade ranking of my candidates. As and Bs would make my version of a Smaller Hall. B minuses and C plusses are borderline. Cs, including the four on my ballot, are not worthy.

As a career based non-timelining voter I have Drysdale at 23 (C-). I have Boyer at 18 (C-), Gordon at 21 (C-), Minoso at 22 (C-) and Brown at 27 (D).

1. Mickey Welch (A) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

2. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes. There is not much of a spread between Grimes and Mendez.

3. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving, but he still falls in high on this very weak ballot.

4. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me. Nice to see him crack our top-10.

5. Biz Mackey (B) – I vote career over peak, so I like Mackey the best of the eligible catchers. It is close though, and Mackey is not that much ahead of Bresnahan (14) or Schang (27). Could be his year – or not.

6. Nellie Fox (B) -- he falls somewhere between here and 16 on my ballot. I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

7. George Sisler (B) – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average. On the cusp.

8. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

9. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

10. George Van Haltren (C+) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

11. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

12. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

13. Jose Mendez (C) – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right (this gap used to be twelve spaces -- now it is four). His hitting makes a differewnce for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Drysdale, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

14. Jimmy Ryan (C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs.

15. Sam Rice (C)-- 2987 hits speaks to me. Glad to have this much maligned hitter back on the ballot.

karlmagnus said:

Drysdale’s a clear margin better than Pierce

I haven't yet fixed all of the details of my ballot, but one thing I can say for sure: I will be disagreeing with karl on this one, and putting Pierce ahead of Drysdale. I might wind up with a Drysdale placement not terribly far from karl's; it's Pierce we disagree on.

That said, Drysdale enjoys all of the advantages of a well-known new candidate in a backlog election. He'll probably be elected.

1975 ballot, our 78th
I continue to be convinced that overall there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

1. JAKE BECKLEY - Heads a contingent of four guys who I have concluded are definitely HOMers.
His OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had value, he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Mathews had 'only' 12, though of course his peak is so much better that Eddie was an obvious No. 2 choice). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted.
2. DICK REDDING - Jumps to elect-me status this year; reevaluation helps him even more. This is the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now worry that the HOM won't, either. A little bit caught between peak/career types, and of course parts of his career are shrouded by history. A rare Negro League pitcher who lasted.

3. JOE GORDON - Now on the verge of 'elect-me'. Elections of Doby and Slaughter confirmed that Gordon has gotten screwed in terms of WW II war credit in comparison. Yeah, it looks weird that his career has no head, and no tail. But the body of work is outstanding, and not many players of his era were better.
4. RALPH KINER - Is getting underrated by the electorate, but that may finally be changing. Slugging version of Gordon. How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? I think both he and Gordon would have better shots with a few extra seasons of what I would consider relatively meaningless results. In both cases, the primes are there.
5. DON DRYSDALE - Admittedly conservative placement, but some if his peers have yet to reach the ballot and he's not quite so overwhelming that I have to vote him in immediately (your mileage may vary). Extremely similar level of effectiveness to Pierce in 162-IP years; I have Pierce with a slight edge due to some extra slightly above average seasons, but Drysdale wins the ballot placement by being more of a workhorse. Ballots that have Drysdale 1 and Pierce off the chart would baffle me, frankly.
6. BILLY PIERCE - Some interesting comparisons with recent HOMer Griffith, but a little less effective, played in a weaker league vs a strong one-league, etc. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of the era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
7. CUPID CHILDS - Even this slot may not be high enough. A full-length career for this brutal and underrepresented era is darn impressive. Even discounting 1890 AA, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras.
8. GEORGE SISLER - Gets back ahead of Cravath this year off reconsideration of his fielding reputation (I consider pre-1930 fielding stats to be problematic). Not much in that 2nd half of career, I'll admit. But the first half was something to see. A slight pitching boost, too.
9. BOB ELLIOTT - I'm starting to mull him vs McGraw, which is a difficult comparison. Better than HOMer Hack, Elliott has returned to my ballot in recent years. Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details).
10. GAVVY CRAVATH - The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
11. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
12. MINNIE MINOSO - First time voting for him; he's not guaranteed a spot next year. Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but disappointed to see such negligible Negro Leagues credit.
13. RUBE WADDELL - I've been kicking Rube around for decades, but the Drysdale thread helped his cause a bit. I still think he had more direct impact in costing his team wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, and never led his league in IP and only top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this one, at least.
14. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite clings barely to the ballot. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
15. BOB JOHNSON - Back after a decade's absence. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.


TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
JOSE MENDEZ - Benefits from a slightly-shortening backlog; so far beating out Bucky Walters for the extra pitcher slot. May soon get a vote from me, but is 6th-rated P at present.
WILLARD BROWN - Mediocre OBP and played in a weak league. The HOF may have blown it here. I even blaspheme by being skeptical of the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes he offered for his late-career MLB flop.
BIZ MACKEY - Probably will get elected in the HOM soon enough without me. I just don't like mediocre hitters, even if they're pretty good for their position. Fielding by a C is not as key in my eyes as 2B-SS, among others, particularly in that era. Convince me on that, and maybe he joins the ballot.

JUST MISSED
KEN BOYER - Nice career, has to be in anyone's consideration set. Just not rushing to give him a vote; he'd have to get past McGraw first, for one.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced for this year by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but when the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15 at times.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - Slips from 14th 4 yrs ago, is the 3rd NY Giant still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Better pick than Mackey.

Everyone moves up at least 1 spot, the top 3 moved up 2.

1. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worst teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

2. Biz Mackey - I've always felt he was a star. He wasn't Josh Gibson, but who was?

3. George Sisler - Even during his "bad" years he could still get a ton of hits. Kiner like peak with some solid years to tack on for career voters.

4. Don Drysdale - not as high as I thought I'd have him initially, but still a great pitcher. He made me look really hard at Billy Pierce again though, and Pierce will be appearing on my ballot when some backlog gets elected.

5. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

6. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

7. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

8. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

9. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

10. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

11. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

12. Joe Gordon - If his peak had been higher, or his career had been longer, I'd like him a lot more

13. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

14. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

15. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

16. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

17. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

18. Ernie Lombardi - I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

19. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for.

20. Ralph Kiner - Same reasoning as Walters.

1. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (3). The best pitcher on the ballot, according to his MLEs. I also like that his own winning percentage was better than his team’s by 100 points. I originally had Redding halfway between Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce, which has allowed Dick to move up to first as the guys ahead of him keep getting elected.

2. Jose Mendez, P (5). His MLEs are slightly lower than Redding’s and slightly better than Pierce’s actual numbers. With Drysdale on the ballot, I re-examined both Redding and Mendez which resulted in Mendez leap-frogging Willard Brown.

3. Willard Brown, OF (4). I give Willard Brown war credit for 2 ½ years which brings his career value up into the neighborhood of a Goose Goslin. I still like his peak numbers but his career rate stats in both OBP and SLG are a little low for a player of his caliber which is why I have the two pitchers ahead of him.

4. Nellie Fox, 2B (6). Fox was an outstanding defensive second basemen- winning three gold gloves- and an ideal top of the line-up hitter- routinely landing in top ten lists for Runs (7 times), AVG (8), Hits (10) and Triples (11). Plus he has a long prime during which he was acknowledged as the best at his position, picking up MVP votes in 10 seasons and being named an All-Star 12 times.

5. Quincy Trouppe, C (8). I think he’s the best catcher on the ballot with more great years than anybody else at his position. I continued to tweak my positional bonus which resulted in all three catchers moving up, including Trouppe.

6. Billy Pierce, C (7). The best Major League pitcher on the ballot. An All-Star 7 times between 1953 and 1961, TSN named him AL Pitcher of the Year for 1956 and 1957 so he’s got both the peak and the prime. During that prime, Pierce also made the adjustment from being a strikeout pitcher- leading the league in Ks in 1953 and Ks per 9 IP in ’53 and ’55- to an innings eater –leading the league in Complete Games from 1956-’58- demonstrating that he’s smart as well as talented.

7. Minnie Minoso, OF (9). He was an All-Star as soon as he entered the Major Leagues, getting named to the actual team 7 times and picking up MVP votes 8 times. He was routinely among the league leaders, finishing in the top ten eight or nine times each for AVG, OBP, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, 2Bs and Stolen Bases. A little bit of Negro League credit at the beginning of his career gives him the added boost to offset the lack of black ink.

8. Hugh Duffy, OF (10). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

9. Ernie Lombardi, C (14). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG.

10. Biz Mackey, C (15). Mackey is credited with two MVPs (in 1923 and 1931) as compared to Lombardi’s one and the two players had similar lengths for their prime. However, despite the nearly equal career OBP (.358 for Lombardi, .359 for Mackey), Lombardi’s SLG is much higher (.460 to .393). That gives Lombardi the edge between two very similar players

11. George Sisler, 1B (11). His peak isn't quite as long as Duffy's as Sisler was only among the very best for a three-year period from 1920-22. However, he had a longer prime, picking up top ten slots in average, stolen bases, total bases and hits 8, 9, 9 and 11 times. Also, the career numbers aren't as bad as the Hall of Merit discussion led me to believe. I won’t mind at all if he gets elected this year as he’s standing in place only because Lombardi and Mackey moved up.

12. Joe Gordon, 2B (12). I give Gordon 2 and ½ years of war credit. I like the slugging numbers, picking up top ten slots in SLG, Runs, RBIs, Total Bases and Home Runs 5, 5, 5, 6 and 9 times.

13. Mickey Welch, P (n/a). Mickey Welch is back on my ballot after dropping off last year. Sure, he was never among the very best in the game and he lacks the black ink that I tend to admire. But he was among the very good for such a long time that he has the best career numbers of anyone on the ballot.

14. Don Drysdale, P (n/e). I made a Drysdale/Pierce comparison in the Drysdale thread and came out favoring Pierce. I don’t think the gap between the two of them is as significant as this ballot seems to indicate (8 slots!) but a lot of position players and one career-oriented pitcher snuck in ahead of him. 3 outstanding seasons in 1959, ’60 and ’62 with a long prime with 9 top ten seasons in ERA and Shutouts and 11 in Innings and Strikeouts.

15. Ralph Kiner OF (13). Led the league in Home Runs 7 straight seasons and finished fifth one more time. But Kiner was more than just a one-dimensional player. Fans of both OPS and Adjusted OPS+ should be impressed by his league-leading numbers in those categories in 1947, ’49 and ’51. Kiner nearly fell off of my ballot as I moved some of the career-oriented candidates up but I just couldn’t justify that big of a drop.

Necessary Disclosures:
Top Ten Returnees: They're all up there.
Noteworthy New Candidate: Ken Boyer, 3B. I’d love to have Boyer on my ballot some day. He’s the top third basemen and currently sitting in my #20 spot.

Love the peaks, like the primes. I use careers for balancing measures.

1)Hugh Duffy- Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove.
2)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher.
3)Gavvy Cravath - Very possibly the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates. Likely the best hitter in that group, too.
4)Joe Sewell
5)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes.
6)George Sisler - He actually dropped a bit on my ballot when reconsidering his down years.
7)Jose Mendez
8)Jake Beckley - Always excellent. No peak, all prime.
9)Minnie Minoso
10)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now?
11)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time.
12)Edd Roush - I don't think I could find it in me to rank him higher, but he was exceptional.
13)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher.
14)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax.
15)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest.
16)Ken Boyer - so close, maybe next year.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated.
18)Tommy Bridges - I may need to compare him with Dean again.
19)Alejandro Oms
20)Don Drysdale - Not yet, DD.
21)Ernie Lombardi - deense was below average, but not quite horrible.
22)Roger Bresnahan
23)Ben Taylor - he may still be reevaluated.
24)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10.
25)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place.
26)Chuck Klein
27)Joe Gordon - neither here nor there. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.
28)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges.
29)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
30)Pete Browning
31)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit.
32)Cupid Childs
33)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - I'd be happier if I knew what he was doing for those two years.
34)Phil Rizzuto
35)Charlie Keller - 2nd all time in extra credit.
36)John McGraw
37)Jimmy Ryan
38)Willard Brown - doesn't stick out enough for me with his MLE's.
39)Biz Mackey - concerned about his average stick.
40)Luke Easter
41)Johnny Evers
42)Pete Reiser
43)George Kell
44)Bobby Veach
45)Bob Elliott
46)Bucky Walters
47)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
48)Fred Dunlap
49)Jim Bottomley
50)Bob Johnson
51)Joe Wood - f he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted.
52)Cecil Travis - holds the all-time record for most war credit. 4 toes/years is a lot of credit.
53)Tony Lazerri
54)Dolf Camilli
55)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe.
56)Dobie Moore
57)Hippo Vaughn
58)Tip O'Neill
59)Rocky Colavito
60)Denny Lyons
61)Johnny Pesky
62)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
63)Lon Warneke
64)Don Newcombe
65)Jack Clements
66)Cy Williams
67)Roger Maris
68)Pie Traynor
69)Frank Chance
70)Kiki Cuyler
71)Red Schoendienst
72)John Clapp
73)Larry Doyle
74)Bill Joyce
75)Benny Kauff

I have looked at Drysdale over and over, and while it is clear to me that he is too low (at #50), it is also clear that there is no way he is reaching my ballot at the moment.

PHoM: Minnie Minoso & Bill Terry

1. Willard Brown (3,1,1)
2. George Van Haltren (4,2,3)

With no new candidates making my ballot, Willard and GVH get the top spots back.

3. Biz Mackey (5,4,4)

He will probably get in before either of the guys above him. I'm fien with his entry regardless.

4. Dobie Moore (6,8,7)
5. Jacke Beckley (7,5,6)
6. Mickey Welch (8,6,8)
7. George Sisler (9,9,9)
8. Hugh Duffy (11,11,10)
9. Tommy Leach (12,7,13)

Leach is the guy I waver on most from year to year.

10. Nellie Fox (10,12,12)

Undervalued, but still behind the 'big' undervalued players.

11. Edd Roush (13,10,11)
12. Quincy Trouppe (15,14,14)
13. Tony Mullane (14,13,x)

Most career WS out of anyone listed. Sure, they overstate his case, but by how much?

14. Minnie Minoso (x,15,x)
15. Sam Rice (x,x,x)


16-20. Childs, Ryan, White, Redding, Smith
21-25. Streeter, Kiner, Strong, Gleason, Grimes
26-30. Sewell, Willis, Elliott, Greene, Johnson

I overhauled my ranking system this week. Over the weekend, I selected the 225 players for my personal Hall of Merit. This is not fixed; if new information comes to light on a candidate, they can be removed or inducted. In doing this, I came to the conclusion that TomH was right in saying that I overrepresented pitchers on my ballot -- I found only 68 pitchers to be Meritorious, as opposed to the 80-90 I had previously supported. The reason for this is that there are 11-14 HOM-quality pitchers of the contemporary era (2006) who are not yet eligible. This would probably bring the representation of pitchers more in line with my preferences.

What I now do with my ballot is rank only those players in my personal HOM, regardless of the positional representation of my ballot, as I had been doing.

Also, I have changed one of the ERA values I use to evaluate pitchers. Instead of using ERA from BPro's Translated Pitching Statistics, I use FIP based on their translations for HR/9, BB/9 and K/9. This accounts for any changes in ranking you might see for pitchers. For an explanation of my Total Career Value (TCV) system, see my posts in the Drysdale thread.

Anyway, on to the ballot:

1975 Hall of Merit Ballot

1. Charlie Keller (327 WS) - MVP-quality player for about a decade. Seven Great Seasons (30 WS), more than any MLB LF other than Williams, Bonds or Musial. If Keller isn't a HOMer, then I'm a lugnut.
2. Don Drysdale (141.7 TCV) - Total workhorse who was good for about 275 innings per season. One of the top 30 pitchers (NeL included) of all-time. (245-153 W/L, 126 ERA+, 3479 IP)
3. Dobie Moore (256 WS) - Three Great Seasons, two All-Star Seasons (25 WS), three Good Seasons (20 WS). A more peak-oriented version of Lou Boudreau. If he didn't "love the ladies," as Keith Hernandez might say, he'd probably rank as one of the top 5-7 shortstops all-time.
4. Jose Mendez (109.2 TCV) - I had been underrating his contribution with the bat in my system overhaul. A coin flip between him and Dean for this spot. Most similar pitcher is Dazzy Vance. (207-123 W/L, 130 ERA+, 2886 IP)
5. Dizzy Dean (112.2 TCV) - The shortest career of any pitcher in my top 100. The second-fewest innings pitched (translated and leveraged), ahead of only Mariano Rivera. Good hitter, DIPS-friendly, solid in the World Series. All of this adds to his resume. (151-80 W/L, 138 ERA+, 3479 IP)

6. Dick Redding (101.5 TCV) - Very similar numbers to Juan Marichal. Redding's projection doesn't have any hitting bonus, so he could move ahead of Dean, maybe Mendez. (234-173 W/L, 116 ERA+, 3556 IP)
7. Quincy Trouppe (273 WS) - One Great Season, four All-Star seasons, two good seasons. Only needs about a 10 percent catcher bonus to rank ahead of Minoso and Brown. I have a hard time putting him ahead of the pitchers, though.
8. Minnie Minoso (361 WS) - Three Great Seasons, five more All-Star Seasons, four more Good Seasons. Comparable in value pattern to Zack Wheat and Jimmy Sheckard.
9. Willard Brown (364 WS) - Intuitively, without looking at the numbers, he seems like a comp for Andre Dawson - don't know why. Two Great Seasons, three All-Star Seasons, seven Good Seasons.
10. Rube Waddell (101.3 TCV) - There's no good comparison for him. All I know is that he ranks here. Averaged more than 260 innings per season. (188-116 W/L, 127 ERA+, 2660 IP)

11. Carl Mays (102.3 TCV) - Any player can jump from the Top 50 eligible and onto the ballot if research reveals some distinguishing trait. For Mays, it's his hitting (82 OPS+) and his usage (nearly 280 innings per season). (204-144 W/L, 119 ERA+, 3044 IP)
12. Nellie Fox (313 WS) - Two Great Seasons, two All-Star seasons, six Good Seasons. Essentailly tied with Leach, but Fox ranks just ahead because he stayed at his primary position.
13. Tommy Leach (329 WS) - One Great Season, five All-Star seasons, two Good Seasons. Underrated by the electorate.
14. Billy Pierce (92.3 TCV) - At the bottom level of the HOM, but a HOMer nonetheless. (228-164 W/L, 118 ERA+, 3424 IP)
15. Biz Mackey (283 WS) - A 25 percent catcher bonus sneaks him onto the ballot.

The rest:
16. Joe Gordon
17. Hugh Duffy
18. Alejandro Oms
19. Edd Roush
20. Burleigh Grimes

21. Spottswood Poles
22. Tommy Bridges
23. Wally Berger
24. Dick Lundy

Other Top 10 returnees:
George Sisler (287 WS) - One Great Season, five All-Star Seasons, one Good Season - not enough for a first baseman with a shortish career.
Ralph Kiner (242 WS) - Four Great Seasons, no All-Star Seasons, two Good Seasons. 226th in a HOM with an occupancy of 225.
George Van Haltren (327 WS) - No Great Seasons, four All-Star Seasons, six Good Seasons. He suffers from a terminal case of the Jack Beckleys.

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. And some other stuff.

Made some adjustments this time, mostly (again) re pitchers. I decided I’d been jobbing the 1950s guys, then did an overall reevaluation that changed the positions of a few guys in other eras as well. All these changes happened off-ballot, though some might be close enough to creep onto future ballots.

Drysdale and Redding make my pHOM, which helps my understocked pitcher reserve a bit.

1975 ballot:

1. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Still the best nonelected eligible pitcher out there, IMO.

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). I’m no longer his sole best friend! Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much.

4. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). It seems many of us agree this era is a bit underrepresented; it’s just that we can’t agree on whether Duffy, the peak candidate, or Van Haltren, the career candidate, deserves to go in. As a peak voter, guess who I choose. (The recent discussions haven’t changed my mind one bit.)

5. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another from that underrepresented era, and another infielder with a great peak.

6. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

7. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

8. Willard Brown (pHOM 1964). Looks like a great hitter to me, even if he didn’t walk much.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, an impressive peak by any of my favorite measures.

10. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the remaining 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

11. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the remaining eligible catchers.

12. Joe Gordon (pHOM 1971). My recent 2B reevaluation gave him a decent boost; I like him quite a bit better than the recently elected Doerr. With war credit, he’s clearly worthy.

13. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

14. Don Drysdale (pHOM 1975). I was surprised he did so well in my system, but his peak is pretty strong for this era—not quite Koufax's, but that's not really a fair comparison.

15. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Another underrated pitcher with a solid peak.

16-20: Rosen (1968), Keller (1973), Sisler (1939), Bresnahan (1973), Redding (1975)
21-25: C. Jones, E. Howard, [Reese], Browning, Joss, Fox
26-30: Pierce, Leach, [Slaughter], Mackey (1958), [W. Ford], Doyle, Berger
31-35: McGraw, H. Wilson, Oms, [Doerr], Minoso, Gomez
36-40: Chance, Cravath, [Lyons], Poles, [Wynn], K. Boyer, [Ashburn], Roush
41-45: McCormick, J. Ryan, Elliott, G. Burns, Pesky
46-50: [Rixey], Colavito, Welch, [Lemon], Van Haltren, Trout, Veach

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Sisler. After a demotion some years back, he’s crept back to just off the edge of my ballot. Presently #18 and long in my pHOM; I’ll be happy to see him elected if it happens.

•Mackey. The numbers, at least in the MLEs and the actual data, just aren’t quite there—not enough peak. I can’t bring myself to elevate him on reputation alone. He’s at #28.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren, very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. Midpack at #34.

•Redding. Not quite the peak of my favorite unelected eligible pitchers, but he’s close. At #20, and he gets into my pHOM this election.

•Boyer. He really came out very close to Bob Elliott for me, very slightly ahead. That’s not good enough to make my ballot, even with my positional adjustment. Debuts at #39.

•Face. Thought he’d be the first real relief-ace candidate, but it turns out he’s not that much better (if at all better) than Stu Miller. Very, very good, but not in the echelon of relievers who’ll get onto my ballot, or even into my top 50 (both he and Miller are not that far outside).

•Flood, White. Love ‘em both, but they’re not close.

yest - a question for you. For 3 different guys, you mention their homer titles as their big positive note.

most of the comments I write are based on the first things I notice a bought them

I have Klein the highest due to his better better non power numbers and career then the others

I have Wilson higher then Kiner because I think Wilson was more well rounded (pun inteanded) though this among my closest 2 players which I may flip in the future

Ballot for 1975

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and unsupported Peak doesn't get too far in my system.

1) D. DRYSDALE -- Not up to typical 1st-ballot standards. OTOH, this is a WEAK ballot. I do rank him ahead of Ford. Prime 1958-68. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1957, 1960, 1962, and 1964; WS adds 1965, WARP adds 1959. Other star seasons include 1958, 1961, 1963, 1967. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1968.

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

3) J. GORDON -- Re-evaluated the second-tier guys of the WWII generation; Gordon belongs also. Prime 1938-48. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943; WS adds 1947. Other star seasons include 1948. HM in 1938. WWII in 1944-45.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

5) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

8) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot with a good defensive prime. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

9) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

11) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1917, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922; WARP adds 1916 and 1918.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929.

13) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

14) B. MACKEY -- New HOFer will make the HOM sometime soon (maybe). </i>

15) E. HOWARD -- Two contrasting catchers here. <i>Prime 1961-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

16) D. REDDING -- Reevaluated; just short. </i>

<i>17) D. DEAN -- He's almost ballot-worthy. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

18) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election. </i>

<i>19) J. TINKER -- Not quite. Long prime but never the best; Wagner was tough competition. Prime 1902-1913. (SS) Star seasons include 1904, 1905, 1906, 1908, 1909, 1911, 1912, 1913. HM in 1902, 1903, 1910.

20) W. BROWN -- These guys are all close together. <i></i>

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Dizzy Trout, Jake Beckley,
23-24) Bill Hutchison, Ralph Kiner,
25-26) Harry Hooper, Nellie Fox,
27-28) Edd Roush, Lave Cross,
29-30) Tommy Leach, Billy Pierce,

Italics got messed up, but not enough to mess up the thread. Maybe next week will be better.

Ken Boyer #15, Drysdale #38. Flood and Bill White not close.

Elston Howard and Tommy Bridges PHoM.

1)Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
2)Gordon--Fixed my war credit, he and Doerr moved up. PHoM in 1958.
3)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
4)Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
5)Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B to date, after Baker. PHoM in 1960.
6)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
7)Mackey--#2 on my 1949 prelim, but more data on his hitting has dropped him to here. PHoM in 1964.
8)Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
9)Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
10)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
11)Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
12)Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
13)Willard Brown-- I’m still concerned about the terrible plate discipline and terrible ML flop. PHoM 1973.
14)Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit. 10 top 10 seasons in AL ERA+. PHoM 1975.
15)Ken Boyer--

Sisler--#89, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years. Fournier's 7 best years aren't far behind Sisler's.
Mendez--#33, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.
Redding--#44.
Kiner--#22
Van Haltren--#79, good player, part of the old OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.
Moore--#35, I didn’t vote for Jennings either.

My ballot:

1) Don Drysdale - within spitting distance of Pierce but had better peak seasons and was a better hitter.
2) Billy Pierce - Terrific LH pitcher, 7 all-star caliber seasons
3) Bob Johnson - not the best hitter of the sluggers but a pretty darned good one. May have been the best fielder of all the corner infielders I'm considering.
4) Ralph Kiner - monster slugger and best bat available, let's just say his glove doesn't help him any
5) Ken Boyer - great glove, good bat and we're short on 3B; compares favorably to Bob Elliott and I've been supporting Elliott for years
6) Tommy Bridges - I think he's clearly missing from his generation, better than Trucks, Walters or Leonard and they might be HoM caliber also.
7) Charlie Keller - gave him a little more XC this week and he moves up considerably. The ballot starts getting bunched together here. Decent glove also.
8) Joe Gordon - best available infielder needs war credit to differentiate him from the backlog
9) Minnie Minoso - top AL LF of his era but that doesn't mean top ballot.
10) Biz Mackey - My favorite among catcher candidates. Terrific glove at catcher makes me believe he really would have put up all those career numbers.
11) Virgil Trucks - another great pitcher who needs war credit to get on the ballot
12) Quincy Trouppe - "during the height of World War II, he encountered difficulty with his draft board in securing a passport to return to Mexico. Seeking assistance, he contacted Mexican League president Jorge Pasquel, who quickly made arrangements for eighty-thousand Mexican workers to be exchanged so Trouppe and Theolic Smith could leave their defense jobs and play baseball in Mexico." www.theforgottenleagues.com
13) Dutch Leonard - the cutoff line for his era?
14) Bob Elliott - Best 3B available for a long stretch of time
15) Joe Sewell - New WARP numbers help him out, best ML SS of his time and the NGL shortstops didn't all play as long as Sewell.

16) Jake Beckley - I'm not his biggest fan but I like him considerably more than Sisler
17-20) Chuck Klein, Gavy Cravath, Rube Waddell, Jose Mendez
I've tied Mendez to Waddell until someone can show me how well he hit.
21-22) Willard Brown, Urban Shocker
23) George Sisler - I stopped penalizing him for years outside his valuable seasons
24-27) Tommy Leach, Edd Roush, Dobie Moore, Alejandro Oms
28-31) Dizzy Trout, Rocky Colavito, Fielder Jones, Jimmy Ryan
32-36) Cupid Childs, Pete Browning, George Van Haltren, Vic Willis, Dick Redding

1975

Method and ratings significantly revamped. I was never really comfortable comparing 19C guys with 20C guys, or at least post-deadball. I was not comfortable that I had the right balance of peak and career (i.e. I didn’t have enough peak emphasis anymore). But, more importantly, I am not so concerned about whether the peak is consecutive or not. This makes a big difference, especially with. And I revisited all of my MLEs including NeL MLEs with the result of more war credit and a couple more MiL credits here and there. Also I wanted to revisit the importance of defense.

Emphasis is still on WS, OPS+ and ERA+ with some other odd things thrown in (especially subjective sense of defensive value), but with a little different emphasis. I must say I was surprised by some of the results, but I think the method and emphasis is better than it was.

Larry Doyle and Red Ruffing go PHoM.

1. Dobie Moore (3 last year-1-2, PHoM 1942)—a peak that stands up to review and then some

2. Ralph Kiner (7-6-5, PHoM 1964)—moves up, based on the same old virtues

3. Rube Waddell (5-4-6, PHoM 1932)—second highest ERA+ available, and his UER were not outside the norm (exactly equal to Addie Joss)

4. George Sisler (4-2-3, PHoM 1938)—when people say his peak or prime wasn’t long enough, the truth is that nobody on this ballot peaks for any longer; no, he wasn’t Babe Ruth…but don’t forget to adjust 1918 and 1919 to 154

5. Larry Doyle (21-17-21, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush (5 points more than Hugh Duffy), and also gets adjustment to 1918 and 1919 season lengths

6. Addie Joss (8-7-13, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available

7. Charley Jones (16-15-16, PHoM 1921)—I have added in 2 blacklist years’ worth of MLEs. He made my PHoM without them, but moves up with…

(7a. Red Ruffing [34-30-33, PHoM 1975]—imagine my surprise. I was looking for good peak values and discovered that Ruffing is tied for the best 7th best season in WS with 21 and is fourth for the 7th best ERA+ season at 119. The absolute peak is not that high, of course, but pitched at an all-star level longer than almost anybody)

8. Pete Browning (6-5-4, PHoM 1961)—drops behind Charley Jones but still rates highly

9. Joe Gordon (15-14-15, PHoM 1973)—moves up a bit

10. Willard Brown (12-11-11, PHoM 1966)—still looks like the real deal to me

(10a. Clark Griffith [18-14b-20]—moves up, but not to say he isn’t pretty interchangeable with Vic Willis and Eddie Cicotte)

11. Edd Roush (29-26-29)—really belongs ahead of Averill and Duffy, on reconsideration, first time on my ballot since 1956

12. Vic Willis (x-x-x)—how did I miss this guy? Oh, yeah, he came eligible the same year as Waddell and didn’t quite measure up. Great peak (though not consecutive) and a huge workhorse. Check him out!

(12a. Earl Averill [17-14a-18]—moves up a tich)

13. Jose Mendez (10-9-9, PHoM 1957)—drops a tad, though this is with essentially no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

14. Minnie Minoso (13-12-12)—I give 2 NeL seasons though well below peak level


(14a. Stan Hack [19-14a-15a]—holding pattern)

15. Don Drysdale (new)—a stronger candidate than I thought he would be. His career ERA+ and his 7th best year are each the 5th best available, while his 3rd best year at 140 is the 6th best available. Meanwhile his 7th best WS year ties for the best available.

And the losers are:

19. Nellie Fox (11-10-10)
25. Dick Redding (14-13-14, PHoM 1971)
26. Tommy Bond (9-8-8, PHoM 1929)

The second tier (previous week’s ratings only available through #40, x indicates not in the top 40):

16. Alejandro Oms (37-34-37)
(16a. Bobby Doerr [17-18-22])
17. Hugh Duffy (19-16-20)
18. Phil Rizzuto (x-x-x)—one of the big winners but still not on ballot
19. Fox
20. Charlie Keller (24-21-25)—I thought he would move up more

21. Joe Sewell (31-28-32)
(21a. Richie Ashburn [x-x-x])
22. Jim McCormick (x-x-x)
23. Hack Wilson (x-x-x)
24. Elston Howard (new)—new #1 catcher, much better than I had thought
25. Redding

26. Bond
27. Wally Berger (x-x-x)
28. Mickey Welch (x-x-x)
29. Ken Boyer (new)—new #1 3B, not overwhelming however
30. Dizzy Dean (25-22-26)—drops down

31. Dick Lundy (36-33-36)
32. Chuck Klein (27-24-31)
33. Al Rosen (x-x-x)—moves way up, still off ballot
34. Frank Chance (x-x-x)—ditto
35. Hilton Smith (x-x-x)
36. Pie Traynor (x-x-x)
37. Tony Mullane (x-x-x)
38. Quincy Trouppe (28-25-28)—no longer the best catcher around
39. Ed Williamson (22-19-23, PHoM 1924)
(39a. Early Wynn 38-35-39)
40. Gavvy Cravath (31-28-32)

More Losers

Vern Stephens (was 27 in 1974)
Mike Tiernan (29)
Cupid Childs (31, PHoM 1925)
Bill Monroe (32)
Bob Johnson (39)
Bob Elliott (41, top 40 as recently as 1973)
Roger Bresnahan (42)

1975

1. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. Keep hope alive! (1927)

2. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (5)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. (1942)

5. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

6. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

7. Hugh Duffy (9)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates.(1964)

8. George Van Haltren (10)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

9. Jose Mendez (11)--Koufax forces a reevaluation of short career/high peak players. Subsequently, Mendez, Walters, Berger and Redding move up my ballot, consistent with how I’d moved Kiner up a couple years ago. (1972)

10. Don Drysdale (-)--Fits in nicely between Mendez and Mays among medium career/medium-high peak pitchers.

11. Carl Mays (12)--Big peak, but a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

12. Biz Mackey (13)--Catchers are a tough group with Mackey, Trouppe and Bresnahan. Mackey’s got the big career length advantage. (1968)

13. Willard Brown (14)--The most anonymous player on my ballot. (1971)

14. Ken Boyer (-)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. But the nature of the project requires us to exaggerate the very small differences between them all and put them in some kind of rank order. This isn’t nearly the exact science we sometimes like to think it is. Anyway, I think Boyer’s glove trumps Elliott’s bat.

15. Joe Sewell (15)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. Though he’s denied a spot in my PHOM for what seems like the tenth time.

16. Edd Roush (16)
17. Minnie Minoso (17)
18. Alejandro Oms (18)
19. Ralph Kiner (19)
20. Nellie Fox (20)
21. Quincy Trouppe (21)
22. Bob Elliott (28)
23. Joe Gordon (34)
24. Bucky Walters (22)
25. Wally Berger (23)
26. Dick Redding (24)
27. Ed Williamson (25)
28. Vern Stephens (26)
29. Roger Bresnahan (27)
30. Dave Bancroft (29)

PHOM
Edd Roush
Don Drysdale

1975 Ballot
1.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2.Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
3.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4.Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may be underrating him. Jumps over Averill. Elected PHOM in 1942.
5.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6.Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
9.Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10.Willard Brown – Big jump up for Brown. I tend to start conservatively w/ Negro league players and other players who need MLE credit. I guess I just need time to digest the information. Elected PHOM in 1966.
11.Biz Mackey – Took another look at Mackey and realized that we’re underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t as great a hitter as we thought. Yes, he has a kind of Sisleresque career shape. However, he has a ton of career value, very good prime value and was an A+ defensive catcher. That adds up to a HOMer to me. Elected PHOM in 1956.
12.Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
13.Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
14.Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
15.Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.

Required Disclosures
Sisler and Minoso Just miss my ballot
Gordon Better than Doerr, slightly behind Fox.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Roush,Drysdale,Bresnahan,Minoso,Monroe
21-25 Leach,Oms,Wassell,Sisler,Cravath

From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. Though he’s denied a spot in my PHOM for what seems like the tenth time.

I had the same thing with Sherry Magge for a bought 30 years

1975 ballot

PHOM: Don Drysdale and Pete Browning

A part of me wants to put this off after a very good week of discussion has had me re-order my top 5 and #'s 10-30. However, I have way too much work to do ahead of finals and I can't bring myself to do any of it tonight. So here goes...

1. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) - Best 2B of the 19th century. He had a very nice peak and good career length for a MIer of his era. He's been at the top of my backlong since Wes Ferrell's induction and in my PHOM since 1939, my fifth election.

2. Charlie Keller (6, PHOM) - All of the discussion this week made me realize that I have been underrating Keller. With a season of MiL credit he has a very impressive 9 year peak/prime and may even be better than Childs. This is one to watch.

3. Don Drysdale (x, PHOM) - Very nice peak, was twice the top pitcher in the NL, including once during Koufax amazing six year run. His career isn't terribly long, but he was certainly good while it lasted. Could hit a little too.

4. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) - A newbie and a jump from Charlie Keller means that Duffy doesn't move up despite my top two being elected last year. Best of the 1890's CF trio due to his high peak, more career than guys like Browning, Kiner, and Sisler.

5. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind only Smokey Joe Williams, who may have been the best of all-time. None too shabby. Best blend of peak and career amongst the pitching candidates.

6. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) - The Black Jennings. Really, really good at his peak (though not quite as good as Jennings), which mitigates his lack of career. Good thing too as only he is to blame for his jumping out of the window of a brothel. Well, he and his wife.

7. Ralph Kiner (8, PHOM) - Nice peak, 7 straight HR titles. I like Keller more with war and MiL credit, but Kiner is worthy of induction as well.

8. Bucky Walters (9, PHOM) - Baseball's best pitcher in at the end of the 20th century's 4th decade. Really nice peak, competent hitter, and a career that was longer than Dean's puts him here.

9. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) - I finally came around on Pete Browning a few years back and now he is in my PHOM after at one time being outside my top 30. He would be up with Kiner and Keller if I didn't have concerns about the quality of the AA.

10. Joe Gordon (11) - Next in line for my PHOM, better player than Doerr in my opinion though it is close enough that it could go either way.

11. Quincey Trouppe (13) - Moves up a few spots. Best catcher on the board though it is tight between he and Howard. Very nice peak, played 3B whereas Howard played the OF.

12. Dizzy Dean (14) - Koufax Lite. Career lenght is similar but not as dominant as Sandy was. Still, arguably the best pitcher of the mid 1930's.

13. Rube Waddell (25) - Big jump for Rube, who has been as high as #8 for me. Two things changed his ranking 1) I had no pitchers between Dean and Rube at #25 (Mendez also moved into my top 20) and 2) it appears that his UER problem was not unique for his era, even though he did have slightly more of them than his contemporaries. This is about where he would be if I hadn't freaked out about his UER thing about 15-20 'years' ago and forgotten about him. My bad.

14. Elston Howard (20) - The more I looked at him the more I think he may have been Quincey Trouppe's twin brother. Both are high peak, good hitting, shortish career catchers with some significant time at other positions. It may sound simple but Trouppe's time at 3B, as opposed to OF for Howard, is the difference between the two in this voter's eyes.

15. Ken Boyer (x) - I give a bonus to 3B, there I said it. Not a quantifiable on like I give to catchers, more of a bullshirt (thanks sunny!) dump thing. I give one to catchers to level the playing field since they play fewer games per season. But I give a 3B bonus because if I didn't I feel we would elect as many 3B as the HOF has and that would be a mistake. I see it as the only way to really be fair to all positions. Boyer was not as good as Elliot was offensively, but he was a much better defender. While WS sees the two players as equals, Boyer is way ahead in WARP. In this case, I trust WARP a little bit more. It is at least a point in Boyer's favor.

16-20 Sisler, Mendez, Rosen, Oms, Brown
21-25 Van Haltren, Fox, Bresnahan, Cravath, Pierce
26-30 Berger, Elliot, Willis, Minoso, Newcombe
31-35 Mackey, Roush, Lundy, Rizzuto, Monroe
36-40 Burns, Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker
41-45 Wilson, Johnson, Leach, Thomas, McGraw
46-50 Stephens, Chance, Traynor, Cicotte, Easter

Required Disclosures
16. George Sisler (12) - Just off my ballot and destined to return next week. I dropped him a few spots because this week's discussion reminded me that his seven year prime, while impressive, isn't necesasarily historic. I tend to forget that every 'decade' or so.

17. Jose Mendez (28) - I have pretty much tied Mendez to Waddell in my mind. As I raised Waddell, I took another look at Mendez and realized that I have been underrating him in recent years. He seems to have had a very nice peak. I give him no credit for his time at SS since I don't think he would have played any SS in the Majors. Is on schedule to be on my ballot in 1976.

20. Willard Brown (19) - There is a large range of possibilities when it comes to Brown's imaginery MLB career. He could have become Roberto Clemente or Vlad Guererro. He could have become Alfonso Soriano. He could have become Mark Whiten. I may have him wrong here, but I guess I am just being safe.

29. Minnie Minoso (26) - He wouldn't be a bad choice for my ballot but there isn't too much that really seperates him from a lot of other guys. Pretty similar to Goerge Burns in total value. The MLE's were very helpful as it turns out he was three years younger than we thought and not a star prior to his turn in MLB.

30. Biz Mackey (31) - I don't think he was ever a truly great player. A good player for a long time and a great defensive catcher. He wouldnt' be a bad selection and I think he would be a better selection than Bell, but I don't advocate his selection. Selection three times in one sentence, my profs would kill me!

Newbies
Bill White is a rich man's Travis Lee.
Curt Flood seems a lot like Gary Maddox to me which isn't enough.
Roy Face is intriguing as all relievers are, but I dont' think I will vote for a reliever until we hit Hoyt Wilhelm. I am not convinced that there are more than 5 relievers who are currently retired that belong in the HOM (Wilhelm, Gossage, Eckersly, Quisenberry, then who?).

1975 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the primes (or value above average) higher than most, hence my support for Sewell, Bob Johnson, McGraw, & Chance.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Joe Gordon (5) [7]
Super prime. Larry Doyle with a much better glove. Two above him got elected, two others dropped upon re-eval, and I’m happy to see Gordon take the top slot.
2-Joe Sewell (7) [14]
Great RCAP, AND very good defense. We will ignore Alan Trammell?
3-Don Drysdale {new}
Could be #1.
4-Ken Boyer {new}
Good stick, fine glove, durable, tough league.
5-Willard Brown (6) [5]
Great slugger and new HoF member.
6-Minnie Minoso (10) [8]
Looks a lot like Bob Johnson. But a teensy bit better.
7-Bucky Walters (4) [22]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well and hit well too, played in strong league. His perceived peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Red’s gold glove defense.
8-Jake Beckley (11) [15]
Fine career.
9-John McGraw (12) [37]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen and especially 1890s infielders. He was a brilliant tactician as well.
10-Biz Mackey (8) [6]
Schang looks just as good. But Mackey’s fine rep and career length puts him here.
11-George Van Haltren (3) [11]
Quite a career (380 WS translated to a full schedule). But I think I played the “good defense” card too strongly. Doesn’t look quite as good if he’s merely a decent CFer.
12-Frank Chance (14) [52]
Every ballot I howl at the moon.
13-Billy Pierce (9) [16]
Similar to Bucky Walters. Good value out of the bullpen helps him some.
14-Bob Johnson (15) [30]
Very good long prime. Dissed by ultra peak-ists and ultra career-ists.
15-Cupid Childs (off) [18]
Sneaks back on the ballot. Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him.

I have 4 Top 10 disclosures: R Kiner 16, D Redding 17, G Sisler 19, J Mendez 21. All crying for a bigger ballot, or at least the chance to clear the backlog. Don’t worry boys, itsa comin’ soon!

1975 ballot. Drysdale and Boyer, interesting discussion all week long. Did it make a difference for my choices? Oh, and tweaks in the system again this year – tried to adjust backlog catchers and infielders who I might have been giving too hard a time. Ya never know with these things.

1. Dick Redding (3). So the HOF missed him – doesn’t take away from the fact he could pitch well. Career was long – decent peak along the way.

2. Bob Johnson (5). Let’s get the Win Shares issue out of the way first. The system don’t like him, that’s not the death blow for me. Therefore…

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start, played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 107.1 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

3. Rube Waddell (6). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch.

4. Edd Roush (4). Star of the 1910s. Another CF which doesn’t seem to hurt in my rankings.

5. Don Drysdale (-). Workhorses are valuable too. He did good work, even adjusting for 1960s Dodger Stadium environment.

6. Tommy Leach (8). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little.

7. Biz Mackey (9). His defensive reputation probably takes him above some of the translated MLEs that were produced. Not the elite of a Gibson but was a NeL all-time type so I’m inclined to give him the boost. The #2 guy in the NeL catching ranks in what is described as probably that league’s strongest position.

8. Hugh Duffy (10). Constant little tweaks to my system lead to players bubbling up toward the end of the ballot. He’s got that nice little peak in the early 1890s.

9. Billy Pierce (11). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that.

10. Joe Sewell (16). I’ve come around a little bit on the ironman. His work at SS was excellent, lacked a little in length but not enough to dismiss as a candidate as we delve into the backlog.

11. Dobie Moore (13). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

12. Pete Browning (23). I think I had timelined him a bit in recent elections. Or else I’m to the point where as a pure hitter its hard to argue the man was something special.

13. Alejandro Oms (14). Sweet-swinging outfielder, probably have a harder time projecting him since he got to the States more rarely than some other foreign-born players.

14. Jimmy Ryan (7). Started playing during two league system (AA, NL), ended during two league system (AL, NL).

15. Tony Mullane (15). Count in the house! Apollo of the Box shows up every 15 years or so on the ballot, maybe a bit longer this time as the ballot thins. Have him higher than Welch for the era despite playing in the AA.

16-20: Minoso, Kiner, Childs, Mays, Mendez
21-25: Chance, Shocker, Berger, Poles, Keller
26-30: F Jones, Walters, Boyer, Easter, Gordon
31-35: Byrd, Willard Brown, Welch, C Jones, Sisler
36-40: Ben Taylor, Lundy, Joss, Roy Thomas, Bresnahan
41-45: Doyle, Luque, Beckley, Stephens, Trouppe
46-50: Bridges, Willis, Elliott, McGraw, Cicotte

Top 10 Returnees: They include Mendez (#20), Willard Brown (#32), Gordon (#30), Minoso (#16), Kiner (#17), VanHaltren (off top 50). For me most spots from 5 to 35 are tight so everyone be patient, your time on ballot will come.

New guys: Boyer hits at #28, should work his way up through the years. Was pretty much what you would want from a 3bmen: durable, glove, hit some. No one else among newly eligible screams at me.

How in the heck did I end up near the top of the consensus rankings? That’s never happened to me before. And I assumed that, as long as Ol’ Stubblebeard was on my ballot, it never <u>would</u> happen. Weird. Well, we can fix that right now.

<u>1975 Ballot</u>
1)Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
And back to the top he goes. Are guys like Rixey, Ruffing, and Wynn – electees all – really so much better as candidates than Grimes? I don’t think so. I am, however, quite delighted to see that I’m not the only one placing Burleigh in an elect-me spot this year. I feel just a little bit less lonely. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2)George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
Chris Cobb asks if we’re ready to elect Sisler. I think we are. A tremendous high with decent career filler. As a HOM member, he would follow in the footsteps of guys like Medwick and Averill. 33rd on Sporting News Top 100. 45th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 55th on SABR Top 100. 55th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 16th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3)James Raleigh Mackey – “Biz”
He certainly hit the wall hard, didn’t he? If the WS projections are correct, his career far outpaces any other eligible catcher. His prime is a little on the Beckley side, but the peakier catchers – think Elston Howard – seem to flame out fast. Catcher strikes me as a position where durability is quite an achievement. 17th on SABR Negro League poll. 1st Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
4)Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
The reconsideration of his Negro League performance helped a little, but another look at his major league numbers helped even more. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. Definitely the best left fielder on the ballot. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
5)Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
I have him at the head of a pack of very good second basemen, including recent inductee Doerr. Slight edge for six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores. It’s close, though.
6)Edd J Roush
Long career, good peaks...all the things I admire in a candidate. Really no fuss at all with Edd.
7)Hugh Duffy
A very peaky centerfielder, which is a tough sell when we have so many who are consistently great. Kind of in the Sisler mode, although the peak is much sharper. I do like me some center fielders.
8)Willard Jessie Brown – “Home Run”
Great numbers, and you have to admire a guy who decides that he’s better off barnstorming than playing for the St. Louis Browns. The new plaque in upstate New York is reassuring, but not a factor in his placement here.
9)Joseph Lowell Gordon
Demonstrates what may be the harshest effect of the war of any strong candidate for election. His numbers suffer so significantly upon his return. His outstanding prime, plus five years along the ten best in WS in the AL, keep him this high, although I had ranked Doerr higher. 92nd on Maury Allen Top 100.
10)Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
11)Donald Scott Drysdale
Troublesome. Kind of a flat arc, only reaching the Top 10 in WS in his league once (just like Whitey Ford). And I won’t lie to you, it bothers me that his most similar match is still Milt Pappas. But a very consistent performer, with a lot of ink. 81st on Maury Allen Top 100.
12)Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Really a pleasant surprise. Mathews signaled the vanguard of a new age for third basemen, and Boyer is certainly worthy. I think he’s the second best newcomer to the ballot, and I rank him ahead of Leach, so this placement didn’t require too much thought.
13)Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but Rice is hovering just off my ballot, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
14)Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Redding’s a little bit career, Mendez is a little bit peak, and I really can’t make up my mind between them. (When’s the last time anybody voted a tie?) I’ll admit that I’d have more confidence if the Cooperstown crew had given him a plaque instead of Mendez. He gets mentioned a lot more in the histories. 22nd on SABR Negro League poll. 2nd Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll.
15)José de la Caridad Mendez y Baez
I’ve been reviewing pitchers, and he comes out extremely close to Carl Mays, who I have supported in the past and who might just be in a position to move up on my ballot. I’m very wary of his heavy peak, but I’m trying to think of him as the Sisler of pitchers. 4th Team, Pittsburgh Courier 1952 poll (as a utility player, not pitcher).

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Ralph McPherran Kiner
Well, hello, Ralph. You’re a real pickle. I’ve had him lumped together with a batch of candidates whose mostly-peak careers are not currently enough for me to support their induction, like Klein, Berger, and Keller (which leads unfortunately to the syllogistic conclusion that James Newburg is a lugnut). I need to take a closer look at their performances related to their teams; I think that will help me sort them out. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.

FYI to everyone: I'll be away for most of next week's discussion, though I may have a computer/net connection handy. After the "Where's Karl" fandango last week, I daren't go off without letting everyone know!

Here's the 1975 ballot. I have no idea wh we vote for next year, but I sort of feel like we're in backlog doldrums right now. Someone make some wind! Er...on second thought, cancel that.

1975 BALLOT
1. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

2. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too.

3. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor league play.

4. Charley Jones: Best available outfielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me. Dang if the Hall didn't get him wrong too.

5. Don Drysdale: Big, intimidating righty who also played an announcer for ABC’s Monday Night Baseball (IIRC). His haircut never changed, though. A little better than Pierce. Might be the innings, but if so, it’s not by as much as you might think. The Hall got him right.

6. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with enough career to make good. The Hall’s wrong about him too. Sorry Coop, you missed this one.

7. Willard Brown: New walk data from Gadfly boosts his placement and solidifies my thoughts on him. I’d love to see what data the HOF committee had to work with; score one for them on including Brown.

8. Hugh Duffy: Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line. The HOF's got this one.

9. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF. They got this one too.

10. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me. Let's see, 19th C., blacklisted, yeah the HOF won't get him right ever.

11. Pete Browning: This is the olde tyme portion of my ballot. Browning was a great hitter and a pretty rotten fielder, but he’s still HOM material for me. Another easy miss for the HOF.

12. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime candidate. Ditto.

13. Cupid Childs: Love the peak/prime, don’t mind that there’s nothing else. Again with the guys the HOF shoulda got years ago.

14. Biz Mackey: The Hall got him right, but he’s nevertheless a borderliner in my opinion. The hitting in the second half of his career is desultory and his peak batting skills hardly looked like George Sisler’s to me. But his excellent defense saves the day. Again, he’s a player I’d like to have the Shades of Glory data for.

15. Tommy Leach: Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose. What, changing positions excuses the HOF?

16. Alejandro Oms: Borderliner’s borderliner. Love to see the data on him.

17. Elston Howard: I mistakenly was looking at a list of MLB-only catchers when I described Howard as likely appearing in the middle of my ballot. He’s just off of it instead, barely but just. He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

18. Burleigh Grimes: Early Wynn’s 1920s doppelganger. He’s not quite as good as Wynn, but close enough that he’s a HOMer.

19. Vic Willis: Shortish career years wise, but a ton of innings. Strange mix of factors including alternately great/porous defense and run support complicate things, but he’s an end-of-the-line HOMer for me.

20. Dick Redding: Who knows? The fact that the Hall passed on him doesn’t bode well, especially since I’ve never made up my mind clearly about him. I think he’s a HOMer, but I’ll be danged if I can sufficiently and articulately prove it to myself or anyone else.

21. Ned Williamson: He’s very nearly a HOMer, I mean really close, razor-thin line.

22. George Van Haltren: I remember when I was his bestest (though not onliest) friend. Some friendships fade away, some blow up, this one’s just sort of cooled. I’m still his friend, just not as friendly as he’d like.

23. George Sisler

24. Edd Roush


New dudes

Roy Face: Here we have a truly difficult candidate. We don’t have good data for important parts of his career; we haven’t established, as a group, any proactive consensus on what to make of pre-Wilhelm relievers. Our approach so far is entirely reactive as in: “Nah, he doesn’t seem like a good enough reliever,” or more likely, “Nah, relievers as a group aren’t good enough yet.” I’m not sure we’re right about that, but I also don’t have a strong enough way to assess Face’s value relative to his times or any times. And what about Stu Miller and Ellis Kinder? Are they worth a deeper look? Kinder damn well is IF ONLY because we will encounter a funhouse-mirror version of him in Dennis Eckersley. Getting a handle on a hybrid candidate like him could make the Eck discussion less heated and less polarizing, in addition to avoiding having to backload a host of discussion points into one two-week period in the 2003 election cycle.

Ken Boo-yah: His relationship to Elliott is just like Dyrsdale’s and Pierce’s only closer. He’s within my top 40.

Curt Flood: Have glove, won’t travel to Philadelphia. (Can’t say I blame him either, the Phils weren’t known for their racial sensitivity).

Bill White: #69 on my all-time 1B MLB+NgL rankings.


Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.

Joe Gordon: I still don’t get the election of Bobby Doerr, so why would I have Gordon any higher? (OK, in truth I “get” the election of BD, but I’m not sure that we took the right guy, in fact, I think I don’t really care for either of them, I mean why not Fred Dunlap then? I’d say that if you’re rooting for Lou Whitaker, you’ll be bitterly disappointed, cause there’s only so many second baseman that we’ll feel good about taking, and Lou’s going to have a tough case with even less peak than Goerr/Doerdan, and which reminds me that isn’t Nellie Fox like just as good as those guys? Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.)

Ralph Kiner: I’m not a huge fan. Like Minoso he’s around my top 50. I actually see them as virtually equally good candidates. Notice I didn’t say equally good players or similar players. Just candidates. They both have a similar number of plusses and minuses, and as far as their type of player is concerned, they do just about as well as you can without getting my out and out endorsement for HOM election. Either is a “tolerable error” in my judgment, but neither is someone I’ll vote for happily.

And I won’t lie to you, it bothers me that his most similar match is still Milt Pappas.

When similarity scores can figure out that Drysdale's career was about three seasons shorter than Pappas, then Milt wont be Don's most similar match anymore.

And I won’t lie to you, it bothers me that his most similar match is still Milt Pappas.

When are two "similar" things not so similar?

ERA+: Drysdale 121 Pappas 110
OPS+: Drysdale 45 Pappas -3

Kind of a flat arc, only reaching the Top 10 in WS in his league once (just like Whitey Ford).

NL pitchers making the league top-10 during Drysdale's career as a regular (1957-1968).

1957 8T Bunning
1958 4T Spahn 9T Burdette 9T SJones
1959 9T Law
1960 7T Drysdale
1961 9T Spahn
1962 7T Purkey
1963 3T Koufax 3T Ellsworth
1964 none (top pitcher: 12T Drysdale)
1965 2T Koufax 9T Marichal
1966 2T Koufax 5 Marichal 6T Bunning
1967 none (top pitcher: 16 Bunning)
1968 1 Gibson

12 years. 120 top-10 members. I would expect around 33% of that list to be pitchers, or about 40 total.

Does it bother anybody that there are only 16 total, little more than 1 per year, in this decade of the pitcher?

My bad. Bunning was in the AL in 1957. Top NL pitcher was:

1957 none (top pitcher: 12T Spahn)

which doesn't change much of anything.

Does it bother anybody that there are only 16 total, little more than 1 per year, in this decade of the pitcher?

Yes. This sort of statistic is one reason that I don't use official win shares for pitchers. The electorate is treating pitchers pretty much fairly, I think, mainly because voters are not generally applying a the same evaluative system to pitchers and position players, or if they use a single, comprehensive system, it's not win-share based. They are finding the best of each and then mixing their lists together in a way that seems reasonable. At least, that's the impression that I get.

They are finding the best of each and then mixing their lists together in a way that seems reasonable. At least, that's the impression that I get.

Agreed.

1975 ballot:

1. Jake Beckley - luv the career value, especially for a deadball era first baseman
2. George Van Haltren - star center fielder of the underrepresented 1890s
3. Joe Gordon - great fielding second baseman of the 1940s
4. Ken Boyer - I cannot believe he is not on more ballots
5. Bob Johnson - best corner outfielder on the ballot
6. Willard Brown - slugging negro leaguer star
7. Ralph Kiner - great peak ballot-deserving
8. Cupid Childs - very good second baseman of the 1890s
9. Nellie Fox - great fielding second baseman of the 1950s
10. Bob Elliott - slightly behind Boyer among third basemen
11. George Sisler - hope he makes it soonest
12. Dobie Moore - very good all-around negro league player
13. Tommy Bridges - great curve ballist with wwii and pcl credit
14. Joe Sewell - all-around very good shortstop
15. Edd Roush - glad to put him back on my ballot

My next five would be: Pie Traynor, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Tommy Leach, and Minnie Minoso.

Not voting for group top ten: Jose Mendez (maybe around 50), Biz Mackey (maybe around 100), Minnie Minoso (20), and Dick Redding (around 75). Also not voting for Don Drysdale who I have around 50th, right behind Billie Pierce.

right behind Billie Pierce.

Who's that, Mae West's understudy?

My #1 and #2 were elected. In 1975, Ken Boyer and Don Drysdale challenge the backlog. The next year opens up a couple new spots on everyone’s ballot (there are no newbies worth considering), as we’ll elect a couple from the backlog in 1976. Ernie Banks and Jim Bunning look strong for 1977.

1) George Van Haltren (3,2,3) – I was going to write “pass” for the #1 spot, since there is nobody I’m really hot to elect. As the ballot thins out he climbs up again. Now in his 67th year eligible. His day will come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

2) Tommy Leach (4,3,4) – Faded a bit more last election after his comeback in 1972. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

3) George Sisler (5,4,5) – The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This may not be the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

4) Edd Roush (6,6,7) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he gained ground last year. What’s the shelf-life of a Shiny New Toy? About 15-16 years? Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

5) Minnie Minoso (7,7,8) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

6) Biz Mackey (8,8,9) – I’ve long been a friend of catchers and he may be the best available. I like the long career. Defense apparently as good as any catcher; if Schalk could hit, he’d have been Biz.

7) Roger Bresnahan (9,9,10) – Only about eight voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):
1—130 B. Ewing
2—126 R. Bresnahan
3—118 C. Bennett

8) Jimmy Ryan (10,10,11) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 13 voters who had GVH in their top ten last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

9) Jake Beckley (11,11,13) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

10) Wally Schang (12,12,14) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

11) Joe Gordon (13,13,15) – I have him with an even 300 career win shares, with credit for WW2 and adjusted to 162-game seasons. He had the MVP year of 32 AWS and gets credit for seven other seasons of 25+.

12) Burleigh Grimes (14,14,--) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Before 1968, he was previously on my ballot in 1945.

13) Dobie Moore (15,15,--) – Back after four years off. If there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him. I don’t think the HOF seriously considered his pre NeL play.

14) Willard Brown (--,--,--) – New to my ballot. Recent discussion shows me he was truly dominant in his time and place. I’m not concerned with how his weak plate discipline might have affected him in MLB – his actual performance was of great value to his teams, that’s what matters.

15) Charlie Keller (--,--,--) - New to my ballot. Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

Top tenners off ballot: Redding, Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters.

Drysdale is close, but not clearly better than anyone else on this ballot. I’m somewhat concerned that Dodger Stadium may have created an illusion that he was a great workhorse.
Boyer is too much like Elliott to come on now.

17 #1 picks. What's the record? 20?

I think we also might set the record for a electie with the lowest amount of elect me positions

28. The record was set in 1968. After that, the next highest totals are 27 in 1961, 25 in 1967, 24 in 1958 and 22 in 1973.

If there are 3 HOM worthy guys on my ballot, then there are probably 50 guys that are HOM worthy eligible for this election.

Thanks to Chris Cobb for helping think about good fielding middle infielders, and everyone in the Boyer thread for the help getting the hot corner guys lined up.

1)EDD ROUSH – 300 + Win Shares, 3 (or 4) MVP type seasons, excellent defender at a key position. Something I learned from his bio – when he reported to the Chicago White Sox he was still using two gloves in the field, a righty and a lefty, and would switch hands based on the batter. They quickly beat the idea out of him.
2)TOMMY LEACH – 300+ wins shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
3)JOE GORDON - 5 times in top 10 of MVP voting, in the all-star game every year from 1939 to 1949 except his two war seasons.
4)RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot.
5)MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner, career vs. peak argument.
6)BOB ELLIOT – B.E friends rejoice, your arguments swayed me to move him ahead of Traynor on my ballot, even if he didn’t lead the league in putouts nearly as often.
7)NELLIE FOX – just like Lloyd Waner made the HOF on his brother’s stats, I had inadvertently kept Fox off my ballot because I was looking at Terry Fox’s stats. 300 Win share, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores.
8)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
9)DON DRYSDALE – we should come up with a name for this, when we all think a guy is top 15 worthy, but not in an elect me spot, but gets into the HOM in his first ballot. Bill Terry effect?
10)CARL MAYS – Strong peak, good career value. Similar value to Drysdale, but Don has the black/gray ink numbers on his side.
11)ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger, Elston Howard, and Schang are ahead of Mackey on my list.
12)PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. I wish he had some black ink though.
13)HUGH DUFFY – Good combination of career and peak value.
14)GEORGE SISLER – enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
15)KEN BOYER – Not sure about this, but more comfortable with him on the ballot than off. His peak nudges him ahead of Traynor.

16-25 Traynor, Berger, Howard, Rosen, Dean, Willard Brown, Lazzeri, Hack Wilson, Larry Doyle and Schang.

Disclosures – Mackey – I see him behind Bresnahan, Howard, Schang and Lombardi
Jose Mendez – Hard to rank, and not clearly better than the pitching glut. Dick Redding and Mendez are in the low 40’s.

I think we also might set the record for a electie with the lowest amount of elect me positions

Record low is 4: Clark Griffith.

Record low is 4: Clark Griffith.

Without saying who, one likely candidate has already tied it already.

Without saying who, one likely candidate has already tied it already.

Its Hall of Famer Happy Jack Chesbro.

I too will be out of commission next week.

Now don't you all start accusing the good Dr. Chaleeko and I of taking a trip to the wide open range to herd cattle and stay in a tent together. I'm taking my kids to Disneyland.

I don't know about Doc though, he may actually be going cattle-herding.

1. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, good hitter as a third baseman.

2. George Van Haltren - Good hitter, good defender, long career.

3. Don Drysdale - Nice peak, 3000 IP, 121 ERA+.

4. Jose Mendez - Not a long career, but an outstanding peak.

5. Bob Johnson - Great hitter who moves up this high with minor league credit.

6. Willard Brown - Great hitter who played centerfield and shortstop for half his career.

7. Minnie Minoso - Like Johnson gets this high due to minor league credit, wasn't as good a hitter as Indian Bob.

8. Fielder Jones - Great centerfield, great OBP.

9. Bucky Walters - Similar to Mendez, but peak wasn't as good.

10. Joe Sewell - Great shortstop, good hitter. Done at age 34.

11. George Sisler - Very good peak. Could have been great w/o injury.

12. Jimmy Ryan - Similar value to Sisler, but not as big a peak.

13. Bob Elliot - Good defender, very good hitter.

14. Ralph Kiner - Short career, but 7 home run titles and a 149 OPS+.

15. Gavvy Cravath - Great hitter, fantastic peak, not much D

16. Wally Berger
17. Nellie Fox
18. Edd Roush
19. Buzz Arlett
20. Dizzy Trout

22. Joe Gordon - Short career keeps him lower.

Cannonball Dick Redding - Other than his 3 year peak he doesn't impress me too much.
Biz Mackey - Not a great hitter and no peak

AJ:

>10. Joe Sewell - Great shortstop, good hitter. Done at age 34.
>22. Joe Gordon - Short career keeps him lower.

Sewell played 13 years of 100+ games (22 games in a 14th year). Gordon played 11 years of 100+ games and served in the military in 1944 and 1945.

Sewell of course played SS and Gordon 2B--Sewell at an A- level, Gordon at A. So Sewell earned 89 defensive WS, Gordon 70. But like everything on Gordon's record, 2/13 of his career was wiped out. 70 + (70 X 2/13) =81, which is pretty close to Sewell.

Offensively, Gordon hit a career 121 OPS+ with a high of 156-36-36 and Sewell 117 with 147-16-16.

The only way Sewell is #10 and Gordon #22 (due to a short career) would have to be zero WWII credit. Is this so, AJ? (I have them very nearly reversed from this.)

Yes, I don't give any war credit.

Gordon's career offensive WP was .044 better than Sewell's, but the average for his league and position was .043 better. Offensively, they are a wash.

1.Jake Beckley
2.Rube Waddell

Beckley posted a 152 OPS+ in 1890, at the age of 22, in the Players League. He posted a 144 OPS+ fourteen years later, at the age of 36. If you drop two seasons where he hit for league average, then Beckley had thirteen seasons where his average OPS+ was 130 while playing good defense at first base. Now that is a long, productive prime.

It’s great to see Jake nabbing a few top spots on the ballot. For those of you who can’t stand him, well, my next five ballot spots goes to short career, high peak guys…

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those. Didn’t pitch a lot of innings compared to his contemporaries but, as dolflucky says, the man was dominant.

3.George Sisler
4.Ralph Kiner
5.Gavvy Cravath
6.Dobie Moore

For years I had kept these three guys low or off altogether because of their short careers, but now realize I had been underestimating the value of their primes. Sisler edges Cravath and Kiner because of his defense and stolen bases (ranked 1 or 2 in the AL between 1917-1922). By my definition, anyway, Kiner’s prime is only one year shorter than Minoso’s, and his peak is a lot higher. Cravath gets credit for a couple of PCL seasons.

I urge you to stop reading this ballot right now and read or re-read the Dobie Moore thread…OK, I hear your derisive snort, so maybe not *right* now, but check it out over the next couple of weeks. I had him off my ballot for a long time. But we’ve been going through a trough in shortstops—we haven’t elected any in the past ten years, and only Reese and Jennings in the past eighteen. Moore had a great peak, and a decent enough career if you give him credit for his army days. Compares favorably with all the shortstops we’ve had on the ballot since 1956, and is the best shortstop we’ll see (except for Ernie Banks) through at least 1990.

7.Don Drysdale
8.Billy Pierce

A number of voters have linked Drysdale and Pierce together; I’m joining the crowd. Both pitchers have six seasons with ERA+ above 120. Pierce has two in the teens (118, 113), Drysdale has four (118, 117, 115, 113), and pitched more innings, so he has the edge.

9.Alejandro Oms
10.Orestes Minoso

Chris’ projections for Oms (340 WS, 125 OPS/9056 PA) are pretty close to Van Haltren (344 WS, 122 OPS/8979 PA). This makes sense, in that their career paths are similar: long primes without really high peaks, good (but not great) defense at center field.

OTOH, the comparison with Van Haltren might not help Oms’ case at the moment, since George is going through a slight down period in the voting. So about another Cuban OF, Minnie Minoso? Give him three years of XC, and he projects to 330 WS, 9383 PA with an OPS+ right around 125…Oms appreared on 12 ballots last election, with Van Haltren on 21 and Minoso on 28. Given his similarity to these guys, I think Oms should be getting more support.

11.Joe Gordon
12.Wally Schang
13.Jose Mendez

Gordon is moving closer to induction, which is a great thing: second basemen with 120 career OPS+ and A+ defensive ratings should not be neglected. Jose Mendez is even closer, which is also a great thing. The circumstantial evidence for Mendez is substantial: he was a terrific player in a very good Cuban league, also played on the dominant Negro League team of the early 1920s, had a long career, could hit, had some great playoff moments, played in an era which is underrepresented by pitchers, and was possibly the best pitcher to come out of Cuba.

Schang, OTOH, is nowhere near induction. He has issues with playing time and defense, but I still think he’s the best catcher available. He notched ten seasons with at least 300 PAs and an OPS+ over 120, with excellent on-base percentages.

14.Tommy Leach
15.Ned Williamson

I think Leach is the best of the “defense” candidates: 109 OPS+ with a lot of stolen bases, A+ defense at both third *and* centerfield, and more career WS than any position player on the ballot except Van Haltren.

Ken Boyer and Bob Elliott are getting votes. I like those guys—both are just off my ballot--but I can’t see putting them ahead of Ned Williamson. Williamson played considerably better defense, at a time when third was more of a defensive position, and had a much higher peak.

16-20: Bob Elliott, Vic Willis, George Van Haltren, Nellie Fox, Ken Boyer

Biz Mackey: Long career with a couple of big years, but not a lot of what I would define as “prime” seasons. Quincy Trouppe may have been better.

Dick Redding: He and Smokey Joe Williams were considered the best the best Nel pitchers of the teens, which gives me pause in keeping him off the ballot. His projections aren’t that impressive, however, and I like Mendez more. The fact that the HoF committee did not pick him doesn’t encourage me to move him up.

Willard Brown: Often compared to Andre Dawson, whom I’m not a huge fan of.

Mike Webber,

I was just wondering what made you change your mind about Dick Redding last week. In the '74 election you had him 14th, but now you suggest that he's in the low 40s. Just a change of heart, or did you find any new information?

Thanks.

I had Redding as an elect-me up til very recently. Now he's dropped to 25th after rethinking my pitching rankings.
Go figure.

1975 ballot. We're heading for a record low average consensus score. (By the way, SWWW, you're probably still in the top group.) Whoever is elected, a lot of voters aren't going to be particularly happy with the result. For me, it feels like I should start my ballot at about #3 or #4, but someone has to be #1.

1. Billy Pierce (4, 4, 4, 4, 5) Drysdale is the SNT, and reasonably likely to be elected. I think Pierce was better. One thing to note: he had significant relief usage throughout his career (the old Grove/Johnson/3F Brown pattern), presumably at high leverage.
2. José Méndez (10, 10, 10, 2, 3) Could easily be as good as Koufax.
3. Ralph Kiner (5, 5, 5, 3, 4) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs. This year's candidacies of Colavito and Maris shed comparative light on him - and Kiner was better.6. Larry Doyle (2, 2, 2, 5, 6) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
4. Larry Doyle (2, 2, 2, 5, 6) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
5. Quincy Trouppe (8, 8, 8, 6, 7) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
6. George Van Haltren (3, 3, 3, 7, 8) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
7. Don Drysdale (new) This is where I settled with him. It's a peak (or, more accurately, big years) case.
8. Bucky Walters (18, 18, 19, 8, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
9. Orestes Miñoso (13, 6, 6, 9, 10) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value.
10. Joe Sewell (7, 7, 7, 10, 11) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
11. Biz Mackey (9, 9, 9, 11, 12) Catcher is a tough position, and catchers do tend to grow old early. Even Berra didn't have quite the hitting career needed for election as a corner player.
12. Dick Redding (11, 11, 12, 12, 13) A career-value pitching candidate.
13. Jake Beckley (12, 12, 13, 13, 14) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
14. Bob Elliott (14, 13, 14, 14, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B. Looks clearly better to me than next year's candidate, Ken Boyer. (Mathews belongs to a different world and different conversation.)
15. Ken Boyer (new) Compared to Elliot, less bat, more glove. The issue I haven't come to grips with yet, and I don't think the electorate has come to grips with: the NL of the 50's-60's was supposed to be a very high quality league, better than the AL at the same time. Part of the reason for that is some not-yet-eligible monster candidates like Mays, Aaron, and Robinson. But if it really was the better league, that should boost some marginal candidates into electability - who were they?
16. Hugh Duffy (17, 16, 17, 15, 16) I had too much space between him and Van Haltren, but he drifts off the ballot again. He'll be back.
17. Mickey Vernon (15, 14, 15, 16, 17) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
18. Willard Brown (16, 15, 16, 17, 18) If he really could hit for that batting average, he's Kirby Puckett. If not, he's Juan Gonzalez. Worth a look in any case.
19. Nellie Fox (17, 18, 19, 19) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
20. Phil Rizzuto (19, 20, 21, 20, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
21. Cupid Childs (20, 21, 22, 21, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
22. Joe Gordon (21, 23, 22, 22) Not much to choose from between him and Billy Herman.
23. Tommy Bridges (22, 23, 24, 23, 23) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
24. Edd Roush (23, 24, 24, 24, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
25. George Sisler (25, 25, 26, 25, 25) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Vern Stephens (26, 26, 27, 26, 26)
27. Dobie Moore (28, 28, 29, 27, 27) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (29, 29, 30, 28, 28)
29. Rocky Colavito (----, 29) I like Colavito's actual major league career a hair better than Johnson's, including a better peak. Johnson stays ahead of Colavito in recognition of his minor league value. A big hitter at a "bat" position is a tremendously valuable asset. As much as I enjoyed what was unconventional about the '85 and '87 "Whiteyball" Cardinals, they needed Jack Clark in the middle of that lineup. So these guys are valuable - but historically, there have been quite a few of them. This is about where I'd rank Sam Thompson were he still eligibe (yes, I consider Thompson's election a mistake.) Chuck Klein isn't too far away.
30. Frank Chance (30, 30, -, 30, 30)

That was a bad proofread of a bad cut-and-paste. To clarify: Doyle is #4.

1. Don Drysdale—While teammate Koufax was a better pitcher, Drysdale peak is definitely nothing to sniff at, and better health enabled him to continue at it longer.
2. Dobie Moore—Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings. Receives credit for his play with the 25th Infantry Wreckers from 1917 to 1920.
3. Hugh Duffy—Excellent peak puts Duffy among the top of the outfield glut, and considering that his peak makes up 48.8% of his total WS, Duffy’s career value isn’t too shabby, either.
4. Jose Mendez—Dominated Negro era ball from 1910 to 1914, Mendez was similar in value to Rube Waddell except with more IP and without the flaky personality. His performance as a hitter and fielder in the ‘20s adds to his career value a bit as well.
5. Cupid Childs—One of the best infielders of the 1890s. Childs had a great peak, while his career was not overly short considering the rigors of playing infield at that time.
6. Alejandro Oms—The Cuban Enos Slaughter: only one season over 30 WS, but 8 over 25; considering the effects of regression, had a nice peak as well as a real good career (340 WS).
7. Bucky Walters—When at his best he was not only excellent pitcher but an inning eater as well. More career value than Ferrell but less peak, especially considering the decreased competition during the war.
8. Willard Brown—Similar value to Alejandro Oms. His peak is slightly better (3 30+ WS seasons to 1) and he missed two years due to WWII, but Oms had a better, more consistent prime and receives some credit for early play.
9. Joe Gordon—Both Gordon & Doerr’s candidacy is similar to Averill & Sisler’s: strong, but not great, peak with medium career value.
10. Dizzy Dean—Like Jennings, the Diz only played five full years, but what years those were! The best peak among eligible pitching candidates.
11. Edd Roush—Nudges past Van Haltren, Ryan based on his superior peak (excluding pitching WS, Pen. Add. has Roush at .793, Ryan at .781, and Van Haltren at .771). Similar player to Earl Averill.
12. George Sisler—Like Roush, I had been underrating him due to the shortened war seasons during his peak, as well as underestimating the greater importance of fielding at his position during the era.
13. Billy Pierce—Takes Eppa Rixey’s old spot on my ballot; while never great (according to the uber-stats), was always solid. Rixey had more career value, but Pierce’s peak was better, squeezing more into a shorter career. Very similar to Whitey Ford, and is also underrated due to usage patterns.
14. Gavy Cravath—"He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy." Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Millers.
15. Biz Mackey—Like Sisler, Mackey's career is really two careers: the first one quite good, the second . . . not so much. IMO, the best catcher eligible by a nose (excluding Quincy Trouppe, who I have yet to get a handle on for a variety of reasons.)

Required Disclosures:
24. Ralph Kiner—Excellent peak, the best among borderline outfielders, but his career is too short considering the number of outfielders with strong peaks and longer careers. He’s neck and neck with Charlie Keller.
26. Dick Redding—A pre-1920s Negro League candidate about whom little is known. Going by the translations on his thread, Cannonball would be much lower then this; I give him a boost considering the nature of the numbers in his era, but he is still primarily a career candidate.
30. Minnie Minoso—Negro League years help him stand out from a large crowd very good outfield candidates, but his five-year peak isn't enough IMO to push him into ballot territory. Hovers around 30 with Jimmy Ryan.

</blockquote>

Mike Webber,

I was just wondering what made you change your mind about Dick Redding last week. In the '74 election you had him 14th, but now you suggest that he's in the low 40s. Just a change of heart, or did you find any new information?

I try to get the top 15 "right", and in the "right" order then the next 3-5 are guys that basically were bumped out at the end. Then after that is basically a spreadsheet sorting thing. And it is clearly wrong this week. I should have said between 16 and 30.

I see Redding this way, Paige, Williams, and W. Foster are considered the big 3 Negro League pitchers - with Rogan and DiHigo being a hybrid position. Ray Brown's stats add him to the group with the top 3.

After that I would have said Redding, and if the support for Redding was clear over the support for Mendez, well I'd be on board too.

But like I led off with "If there are 3 HOM worthy guys on my ballot, then there are probably 50 guys that are HOM worthy eligible for this election." Redding is in that 50 - whether it's number 5 or 50.

May be more similar to Spahn/Roberts than we realize.

That's just one comment (and it probably isn't new), but it caught my eye this time. I don't understand the love for Redding, or how he could possibly be in the vicinity of Spahn or Roberts. I'm beginning to think that my occasional skimming of the material has left me at a bigger informational disadvantage than I thought.

Is there a separate Redding thread (other than the one under Cannonball Dick Redding)? I ask because in the thread I read it looks like Chris estimated his WS in the 260-270 range, but admitted that he didn't have a lot of confidence in the numbers. The last posts in that thread about MLEs basically say the MLE's never were really finalized.

...parts of his career are shrouded by history.

Is the feeling that "we don't know, so we should probably elect him"? 270-ish WS is not overwhelming, and that's assuming the number is about not too high. We've got all kinds of eligible players with more WS, including several Negro League players. Are we giving Redding a boost that we aren't giving others? If so, why?

Also, I thought the recent HoF committee was supposed to have some non-public data in front of them. With that data they chose not to elect him, and they elected a whole bunch of other folks. We seem to think the committee did a pretty good job with the people they selected (although the manner wasn't the greatest). I think that means they had data similar, or worse to ours, which in either case would not put Redding in the top 10 of elibible candidates.

So, I just don't understand why we are choosing to overlook our own MLEs and the decision of the people who had the best data.

See also Tiboreau's post #57 (player #26).

1975 Ballot

1. Mackey, Biz –My quantitative methods put him about where the anecdotal evidence would have him, despite skepticism from the electorate. Awfully good hitting catcher.

2. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

3. Drysdale, Don – I was surprised how high he was in my system, but his WARP scores help significantly. His WARP peak and career numbers compare very favorably to pitchers who are in the HoF. His 3-year peak is average in that regard, but his 5-year consecutive peak, 7-year peak, career and WARP per 100 IP are above the average HoF pitcher.

4. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

5. Brown, Willard – Tough to evaluate, with all of the alternative leagues he played in. I’ve got him around 335 Win Shares, with SimScores close to Dave Parker, Billy Williams, Goose Goslin and Andre Dawson.

6. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

7. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

8. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

9. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in th outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

10. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

11. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32. This is a shaky placement, and if he gets closer to election, I'm going to have to look closer.

12. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

13. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

14. Gordon, Joe – A few spots ahead of Doerr, but that’s a meaningless distinction, though if Doerr is a HoMer so is Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

15. Ryan, Jimmy – Still better than Van Haltren, even in the Zombie League.

Required Disclosure(s):

Redding, Dick – I guess I'm just confused.

Mendez, Jose – It probably won’t surprise anyone that I’ve got Mendez #65, given how much I differ from the electorate on Cool Papa and Redding.

Kiner, Ralph – Where did he come from? Another guy who does not seem special to me. He’s ranked at #70, with Wally Schang(!). If elected, he would be the lowest ranked guy in my consideration set to achieve the HoM.

Howie Menckel #10:
WILLARD BROWN - Mediocre OBP and played in a weak league. The HOF may have blown it here. I even blaspheme by being skeptical of the "hey, the Negro Leagues were tougher" sour grapes he offered for his late-career MLB flop.

blaspheme? I should hope so.

rawagman #13:
33)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - I'd be happier if I knew what he was doing for those two years.

"He made several appeasl to the league hierarchy, which highhanded officials refused to hear. ALthough his grievances were eventually upheld by the courts, Jones remained blacklisted by the National League. He operated a laundry in Cincinnati, and in November 1881 signed to play for the Cincinnati team of the American Association for the 1882 season. When the AA attained major league status[!] in 1882, it decided to honor the National League blacklist and Jones was never asked to report. He sued Cincinnati for his 1882 salary but lost in a bitter trial in which Jones' alleged alcohol problem was an issue. Jones did play minor league ball for Portsmouth in 1882.
In 1883 Jones was finally allowed in the American Association for Cincinnati after the NL voted to reinstate most of its blacklisted players."

--Jim Sumner, Charles Wesley Jones, 19c Stars (SABR 1989)

Another tidbit about his time outside the majors: He played CF for Cincinnati in 1875 after the Keokuks disbanded. 7g 5r 8h known in 1989.

James Newburg #15
What I now do with my ballot is rank only those players in my personal HOM, regardless of the positional representation of my ballot, as I had been doing.

So the 24 players you have listed in rank order are precisely the members of your tentative PHOM who are currently eligible here. Maybe you have fifteen of them only because you missed some of the discussion!

Also, I have changed one of the ERA values I use to evaluate pitchers. Instead of using ERA from BPro's Translated Pitching Statistics, I use FIP based on their translations for HR/9, BB/9 and K/9. This accounts for any changes in ranking you might see for pitchers. For an explanation of my Total Career Value (TCV) system, see my posts in the Drysdale thread.

So you are a buyer of Defense-Independent Pitchings Statistics. If you are surprised by the low rankings of some pitchers --Greg Maddux, knuckleballers, maybe spitballers-- the explanation may be in Tom Tippett, "Can pitchers prevent hits on balls in play?" Tippett study of McCracken thesis

3. Dobie Moore (256 WS) - Three Great Seasons, two All-Star Seasons (25 WS), three Good Seasons (20 WS). A more peak-oriented version of Lou Boudreau. If he didn't "love the ladies," as Keith Hernandez might say, he'd probably rank as one of the top 5-7 shortstops all-time.

Did he have a lot of "malaria"?

sunnyday #23
4. George Sisler (4-2-3, PHoM 1938)—when people say his peak or prime wasn’t long enough, the truth is that nobody on this ballot peaks for any longer;

Charley Jones

Rick A. #25
7.Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958

But he chutes out of serious consideration by longtime supporter Marc sunnyday. (I would have called him a career candidate, but he may be that, for his time and fielding position.)

jschmeagol #27
20. Willard Brown (19) - There is a large range of possibilities when it comes to Brown's imaginery MLB career.

Fewer than 2000 at bats, but the 5 home runs in one game is impossible to ignore. A you probably know, that ties Luke Easter for the all-time record.

On Dick Redding:

Is there a separate Redding thread (other than the one under Cannonball Dick Redding)? I ask because in the thread I read it looks like Chris estimated his WS in the 260-270 range, but admitted that he didn't have a lot of confidence in the numbers. The last posts in that thread about MLEs basically say the MLE's never were really finalized.

What's on that thread is what we have, as far as I know. Making estimates for NeL pitchers is hard and has to involve a lot of guesswork. There's a much higher degree of uncertainty about the numbers for _every_ NeL pitcher than for any NeL position player, and that is especially the case pre-1920.

My lack of confidence means that Redding could have been much better or much worse than the numbers show. I'd like to do new studies of Redding and Mendez, as I've learned a good deal about pitcher estimates since I worked him up, and we've added some good data on Redding from Gary A. for Redding's 1921 season and for play in the CWL, but the fact that I can make better estimates now doesn't imply that this estimate is either too high or too low. The system I used to create MLEs for Redding is the kernel of the system I used for later NeL pitchers, so it's not that I did things in my study of him that I later repudiated, it's just that I have found ways to fine-tune the estimates for pitchers somewhat more, and I have better data for estimating innings pitched than I did at that time.

Lack of confidence also doesn't mean that I don't think the estimate is meaningful. It is reasonably consistent with Redding's reputation, which represents him as a bit better than the estimate shows. But 260-270 win shares with a strong peak is respectable for a pitcher candidate.

Other pitchers between 275 and 255 cws from 1893-1930 include

Clark Griffith 273
Joe McGinnity 269
Wilbur Cooper 266
Ed Walsh 265
Waite Hoyt 262
Carl Mays 256
George Mullin 255

The way a pitcher with a career of this size has fared really depends on the peak/prime and subtle issues of league strength/degree of difficulty for pitchers. Redding is somewhere between the awesome peak duo of McGinnity and Walsh (long ago elected) and the low peakers Mullin and Hoyt (off the map). He's in the group with Griffith (recently elected from the backlog after a long wait), Cooper, and Mays (token support). Given that we are deep in the backlog, it doesn't look unreasonable to me, given the MLEs we have and Redding's reputation, that he is being treated as a serious candidate.

If one notes further that Redding missed most of the 1918 and 1919 seasons in military service, with war credit his WS total rises, by my methods of giving war credit, to 285, an even more respectable total, though not a total that guarantees election as a career candidate. Pitchers in the vicinity of 285 cws include

Vic Willis 293
Red Faber 292
Jack Powell 287
Jack Quinn 287
Burleigh Grimes 286

(below that there is a gap in the 1893-1930 pitcher cohort -- Griffith is next at 273)


Also, I thought the recent HoF committee was supposed to have some non-public data in front of them. With that data they chose not to elect him, and they elected a whole bunch of other folks. We seem to think the committee did a pretty good job with the people they selected (although the manner wasn't the greatest). I think that means they had data similar, or worse to ours, which in either case would not put Redding in the top 10 of elibible candidates.

The data that HoF committee had in front of them would have been of little help in evaluating Redding's candidacy.

As I understand it, the data to which the committee had access included only information from box scores from official Negro League games. Redding didn't play within a formal league structure until the Eastern Colored League was formed in 1923. Redding's last big season as a pitcher was in 1922 (his 12th in Black Baseball). In 1923, he joined the Brooklyn Royal Giants as a player-manager, and though he would continue to pitch for another 10 years, his best years were behind him. Moreover, The BR Giants were a kind of marginal team in the league through much of Redding's tenure: they didn't play all that many league games, and they weren't very good. None of this advances Redding's candidacy, of course, but if these were the main stats that committee had in front of them, rather than the sketchier but impressive stats from 1911-22, it is not surprising that they didn't end up supporting his candidacy. It seems clear to me that Redding was the second best pitcher in Black Baseball in the teens, after Joe Williams.

Redding's 1921-22 teams, the Bacharach Giants, were "associate members" of the Negro National League, so the committee may have had good stats for those seasons. In any case, Redding's peak work from 1911-1917 was not any better represented for them than it is for us, which is to say, the records are sketchy.

So, I just don't understand why we are choosing to overlook our own MLEs and the decision of the people who had the best data.

Given that 1) our MLEs for Redding are consistent with his being a serious candidate, 2) the "people with the best data" didn't have data that was significantly better than our own in Redding's case, 3) Redding's reputation, and 4) the weakness of the candidate pool, I believe the electorate's placement of Redding in the high backlog at the present moment is entirely reasonable. I don't think he has a slam-dunk case for being #1 on the ballot in 1975 (although that is probably where he will be on my ballot), but I think the idea that our ranking of him is out of keeping with the available evidence is incorrect.

Right, I factor in reputation more highly the further back we go.
The MLEs are great, but the bigger mistake would be to treat them as "gold" and say, hey, MLEs don't cinch it, so he's out.

At first look, replacing the two rookies from ’74 with the two from ’75 atop the ballot seems like the right way to slot them in (diminishing returns from Mickey & Eddie acknowledged). However, some caution is in order considering how narrowly Don & Ken clear the backlog.

1. Don Drysdale (n/a), LA (N) SP (’56-’69) (1975) – Higher peak, but about the same value as Ford.
2. Willard Brown (3), KC (--), 1B (‘34-‘48) (1966) – I have decided that the consensus is correct: Brown’s career trumps Oms’ peak advantage.
3. Biz Mackey (5), Hilldale (--), C / 3B (’20-’41) (1967) – Near equal value as Cochrane in my system, but needed the 3000 more AB’s to achieve that. It shouldn’t take long now.
4. Ken Boyer (n/a), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – Better than Gordon, atop the infield lists to start.
5. Alejandro Oms (4), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – It sure looks like both Brown and Oms are gonna screw with my consensus scores from here on out on this project. Maybe I could drop Oms a little more because the resume is so heavily non-US, but I won’t do that yet.
6. Billy Pierce (6), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – With the pitchers this closely together, I’m stepping back from total value, and sorting them by pitching value for the ballot.
7. Joe Gordon (7), N.Y. (A), SS (’38-’50) (1968) – Compares favorably to Doerr. Better bat, shorter career, lesser defender (though not according to Win Shares), more war credit. Weighing it all together, I think Doerr was more valuable. .
8. Dutch Leonard (8), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
9. Dizzy Trout (9), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
10. Bucky Walters (10), Cinc. – Phila. (N) SP (’33-’47) (1961) – I can’t think of the reason why I had developed space on the ballot between Dizzy and Bucky, they seem nearly equal in career value.
11. Phil Rizzuto (11), N.Y. (A), SS (’41-’56) (1972) – If you don’t like Gordon or Doerr, I’m not gonna convince you to like Rizzuto.
--. Larry Doby, Clev. (A), CF (’46-’59) (1973) –
12. George Van Haltren (12), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
--. Stan Hack, Chic. (N), 3B (’32-’47) –
--. Joe Medwick, St.L (N), LF (’32-’47) –
13. Dom DiMaggio (13), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
14. Bob Johnson (14), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
--. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) –
15. Joe Sewell (15), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Might deserve the spot over Rizzuto, but not this year.


George Sisler – Makes Jennings seem ballot-worthy by comparison.
Dick Redding – The bar for NeL pitchers has been set higher than this, IMO. The jump from Ray Brown to Bill Foster, Mendez and Redding will keep them all out of my Hall.
Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Minnie Minoso – Just off ballot, but very much in contention with VH, Medwick, DiMaggio, Johnson and Beckley for those last 1B-OF spots.
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 25 votes and Chuck Klein with 3 before I explain why he is off-ballot.

A lot of players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.

My personal hall of merit inductees this year are Drysdale and Boyer.

1. Don Drysdale – Over 10 seasons (1957, 59-65, 67-68) he averaged 17-13, 1.0 wins above team, 278 IP, 121 DERA+, 210 SO, 69 BB, 42 OPS+. Won the 2-league CYA in 1962; twice placed in the top 5 in MVP vote. Bill James defines the “Don Drysdale Family” of pitchers as “big, scary right-handed power pitchers who can really hit—includes Wes Ferrell, Don Drysdale, and, I suppose, Don Newcombe. Frightening pitchers, and good athletes as well as good pitchers.” (PHoM 1975)

2. Willard Brown – “A slugger who was exceptionally fast in the field, a good base runner, and an excellent gloveman with a great arm.” —James A. Riley. (PHoM 1971)

3. Orestes Miñoso – A fine, consistent player. He hit for average and with power, ran with speed, and won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1970)

4. Biz Mackey – “His defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball . . . In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was one of most dangerous hitters in baseball.”—James A. Riley. (PHoM 1973)

5. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

6. Phil Rizzuto – My top “glove” candidate. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

7. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

8. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+ (revised). (PHoM 1966)

9. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); MVP for 1964. He’s borderline, but on the right side of the border. (PHoM 1975)

10. Gavy Cravath – In my opinion, he’s the winner of the “hitter” competition. From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. However, he was just continuing what he’d been doing for years, while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30.

11. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). (PHoM 1967)

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964.

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+ (revised), 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

15. Dick Redding – “One of the great pitchers of black baseball” —James A. Riley.

Near misses:

16–20. Grimes (PHoM 1940), Moore, Newcombe, Fox, Keller
21–25. Arlett, Bresnahan, Easter, Leach (PHoM 1932), Gordon

Other consensus top 10:

25. Joe Gordon – Better than Doerr, but I prefer Rizzuto, Moore, and Fox.

27. Ralph Kiner – I can’t see placing him ahead of Cravath or Keller.

50. George Sisler – Career value was hurt by a lot of throwaway seasons; peak and prime were not as impressive as those of other hitters such as Keller, Cravath, and Kiner.

Other new arrivals:

I placed Curt Flood at # 88.

1975 ballot:

1. George Sisler: If the career had a more normal shape, Sisler would likely be in already. I’ve been saying for decades that the sharp break in performance may have doomed his chances. Could it finally be his time? The HOF got this one right; he’s been in since ’39. (eligible 1936, PHOM 1938)

2. Biz Mackey: If even the low win shares estimates are anywhere near accurate, this is one of the all-time best catchers. Was the #1 HOF-caliber career (among non-HOFers) on Riley’s list in the new ESPN encyclopedia, now he’s in. (eligible 1949, PHOM 1958)

3. Minnie Minoso: Outstanding player throughout the ‘50s, but no knockout seasons. The more analysis there is, the better he looks, and he looked really good already. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

4. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

5. Don Drysdale: Good career, nice but not exceptional peak, looks like the best pitching candidate on the board, but not by much.

6. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

7. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of people when others weren’t. Yeah, he gave up a lot of unearned runs, but it’s not like he was alone…. In the core of his career, 1900-1909, 33% of the runs he allowed were unearned. Cherry-picking the same period, we have 3-F Brown 36%, Ed Walsh & Addie Joss 34%, Christy Mathewson, 31%, Cy Young 30%. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

8. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now becoming a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

9. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

10. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning. (eligible 1961)

11. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

12. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

13. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971)

14. Willard Brown: Must have been a great bad-ball hitter. Why would anyone throw him a strike? I’ve had trouble making up my mind about him. His being elected to the HOF helps him make it on. (eligible 1958)

15. Pete Browning: Sneaks back on after a long absence. Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)

Required comments:
Joe Gordon: He’s lurking, around 20th.
Jose Mendez: Likewise lurking, in top 25. Could well move up.

New guy:
Ken Boyer: This is starting to sound like a broken record (some of you youngsters may not get what this means :-) ), but he’s lurking, too. Barely off, with fellow 3b Traynor & Elliott.

1975 Ballot

1. Larry Doyle (3) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
2. John McGraw (4) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
3. Cupid Childs (5) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
4. Dick Redding (6) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
5. Ralph Kiner (7) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
6. Don Drysdale (8) -- He packed a sizeable amount of innings into what seems like a short career. Lots of K's and healthy ERA+. The only real question mark is that W/L record which looks a bit low even when accounting for "luck". He would be higher without that.
7. Gavvy Cravath (8) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
8. Charley Jones (9) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
9. Biz Mackey (10) -- Lets not forget about Biz! Wasn't the hitter I had previously thought, but I have a soft spot for catchers. Giving him credit for his year in overseas and his rate numbers are not bad if you cut them off in the late-1930s or so. Its not fair that his older days are weighing his rates down.
10. George Sisler (11) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
11. Joe Gordon (12) -- Tossing some love out for the fine 2B for some great Yankees/Indians clubs. Short career has me worried, but a little war credit puts him on the ballot.
12. Roger Bresnahan (13) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
13. Joe Sewell (14) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
14. Bob Elliott (15) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
15. Willard Brown (nr) -- I like him better than Minoso.

1975 Ballot

1. (3) Dobie Moore. The evidence presented on his thread suggests that he was a great player for longer than a Jennings-esque 5 years. There’s a lot about his career we may never know, but with a few years' credit for his time playing in army, his career looks to me to be of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

2. (5) Edd Roush. There are some odd things about his career, but to me he combines both peak and career value, and offensive and defensive value, better than the other eligible OFs. Roush was one of the best players in the NL for a decade, which included a couple of MVP type seasons, and ended up above 100 WARP and 300 WS. I think Bill James has him ranked about right (15-CF).

3. (6) Nellie Fox. Fox was durable, consistent, got on base a lot, and an was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. To me, that adds up to a player far more valuable than might be suggested by his 94 OPS+.

4. (7) George Sisler. Sisler was truly an outstanding player, both offensively and defensively between 1916-1922. The remainder of his career doesn’t add much value, but also doesn’t take away from what came before.

5. (8) Minnie Minoso. NeL credit bumps up his career value. Like Sisler, we’ve elected several players he seems comparable to.

6. (4) Larry Doyle. His defensive stats are just odd. If BP’s assessment is to be trusted, Doyle began as a terrible fielder and became a better than average fielder as his career was winding down. There’s no question about his offensive abilities, however. Doyle has a career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. I like him more than I liked Bobby Doerr.

7. (9) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Maybe the best eligible 2B, period. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him above Moore, whose peak seems higher, but I like him better than I like the three 1890s OFs.

8. (new) Don Drysdale. 3.85 DERA/121 ERA+ in 3400+ innings (including 8 seasons in top 5 NL IP) puts him just above his competition on this ballot.

9. (10) Billy Pierce. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Drysdale except for maybe a small peak advantage for DD. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade, with perhaps one year (1955) when there was no one better.

10. (12) Rube Waddell. Might as well put all the pitchers in a row. Waddell, I have long thought, probably deserves more respect regardless of how troubled he may have been. Top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even factoring in concerns about unearned runs and durability, those are some impressive numbers.

11. (13) Joe Gordon. Another big-hitting middle IF. With reasonable war credit, I like Gordon more than Doerr.

12. (14) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t an much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times. A very solid pitcher who seems easy to overlook, much like his former teammates Trout and Trucks.

13. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. I’ve never been sure where to put GVH. I don’t sense he was ever an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

14. (15) Ralph Kiner. 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

15. (new) Ken Boyer. His peak years (1958-1964) are better than I had previously realized, though looking at him and Bob Elliott this week has made me wonder once again if I am not seriously overlooking Tommie Leach.

Next 5
16. Alejandro Oms
17. Bucky Walters
18. Charlie Keller
19. Quincy Trouppe
20. George J. Burns

Required disclosures:
Biz Mackey, Dick Redding, Willard Brown, Jose Mendez. It’s a crowded ballot. I like all of these guys, though among eligible NeL players, I like Moore, Oms, and Trouppe better.

36 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: andrew siegel, EricC, Dolf Lucky, Gadfly, Kelly (back) in SD, dan b, Trevor P., Thane of Bagarth, Chris Cobb, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Michael Bass, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, Ardo, and caspian88.

1975 ballot.

1. Wally Schang - Long consistent career with very good bat in the 1910s-1920s AL, an era when catchers did not catch as many games year in and year out as later.
2. Don Drysdale - A different kind of career than Koufax, but one that ends up a little higher in my system.
3. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL.
4. Joe Gordon - Significant WWII credit. I have him above Doerr.
5. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers, behind Blyleven.
6. Jose Mendez - Evidence of a HoM worthy peak; perhaps a slightly better version of Lefty Gomez.
7. Nellie Fox - WS likes him, WARP doesn't. My system rates IF highly; he jumped when I starting using less extreme league factors.
8. Gil Hodges - For strength of the 1950s NL and for being the best or among the best 1B throughout his prime.
9. Bob Friend - I might be his only friend. Maybe I'm still favoring later pitchers too much, but not as extreme as before. In any case, a lot of quality innings in a relatively strong league.
10. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on the ballot.
11. Lefty Gomez - Peak-season bonus for his two Cy-Young type seasons boosted him back onto the ballot.
12. Dutch Leonard (Emil)- Not one outstanding quality, but lots of very good in a long career.
13. Billy Pierce - Many very good seasons.
14. Curt Simmons - A suprise in my system. Similar case to Pierce. Helped by my league factors which suggest that pitching was stronger in the NL during his time.
15. Sam Rice - WWI credit gets him to around 3180 career hits in spite of not playing until age 25 and not being a regular until age 27.

Ken Boyer falls just short. Before I made some slight changes in my system a few weeks ago, he would have ended up on the ballot.

Mackey was one of the top NeL catchers and is just off my ballot.
Van Haltren and Beckley are the best unelected 1890s OF and IF.
Sisler was a good player, but because of his injury, his prime wasn't quite long/strong enough for me.
Willard Brown was one of the top NeL hitters of the 1940s. I look forward to the coming NeL statistical encyclopedia to see whether I may be underrating him.
Redding was a fine player, but I'd elect NeL pitchers Mendez and Byrd before Redding.
Kiner is another player that has a good HoM case, but ends up in the top tier of the Hall of the Very Good in my system.

1) Don Drysdale (–). Comes out in my system as far ahead of teammate Koufax and marginally better than Whitey Ford and Billy Pierce.
2) George Van Haltren (3). Consolidated league, long career, and a pretty decent late-career prime according to WARP1. And scads of win shares. (For what it's worth, I have Jimmy Ryan in my swirling cloud of players just off the ballot, and there's really not that much of a difference between #2 and #20.)
3) Jake Beckley (4). 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite alot of value, even though I've moved slowly towards valuing a 9-year prime over a strict career.
4) Quincy Trouppe (5). Better than Schang, with more in-season appearances. Probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Cupid Childs (6). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
6) Billy Pierce (7). Whether he was a better overall player than Bob Lemon is up for debate, but my initial study of Pierce definitely suggests he was a better pitcher. Defense-adjusted ERA and PRAA both seem to bear that assertion out. Alternatively, he's sort of like Bucky Walters without a war discount. Just below Whitey Ford.
7) Dick Redding (8).When I added Burleigh Grimes to the 1973 ballot, I decided Redding was a bit too high, considering they have similar peaks and Grimes would’ve probably thrown about 600 more adjusted innings. I now have him almost identical to Billy Pierce as opposed to slightly above.
8) Edd Roush (9). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
9) Willard Brown (11). If Brown had never posted that 12-for-67 in 1947, I think I would've had less trouble placing him all these years. Dr. C's win share estimates from 1937 onwards (his "breakthrough" year) are pretty similar to GVH, however.
10) Alejandro Oms (12). Primarily a centerfielder, though Oms played more corner than Roush or Van Haltren. Estimated 125 OPS+ in about 9,000 PA.
11) George Sisler (15). Now on the verge of election. Top OPS+ scores are comparable to Kiner, and even his marginal seasons had some value.
12) Bob Elliott (10). Not as good as Stan Hack, but quite similar. Given the relative scarcity of quality 3B during Elliott’s era, I’m placing him just above Boyer – though the Boyer discussion did convince me I had him about three spots too high on my ballot. I’m still a fan, though.
13) Biz Mackey (14). Durable defensively, and enough offensive impact in his best years to make the ballot. A puzzling slippage in the past few years, but he’ll get in soon.
14) Bob Johnson (–). Considering I’ve been a somewhat vocal defender of Johnson in the Minoso and Medwick threads, I’m happy to finally have a spot for him on my ballot. I’m willing to give Minoso two seasons of credit, but even then I think he falls just short of Johnson. The recent shift in WARP3 values has Johnson at 100.1; Minoso, without any adjustments, is at 82.0
15) Burleigh Grimes (–). Back on the ballot after a one-year absence. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.

Disclosures:

Ken Boyer – Debuts just off the ballot.
Joe Gordon – Also in the cloud of players swirling below the ballot.
Minnie Minoso – See the Bob Johnson entry above.
Ralph Kiner – In a second tier of short-career corner outfielders like Charlie Keller and Pete Browning, around #26.
Jose Mendez – I didn’t particularly care for Koufax, and Mendez is around that level.

In memoriam:

Wally Schang - After forty years, Walter Henry Schang bids a temporary farewell to the bottom half of the ballot. He'll be back, though.

Computer ate yet another ballot and I barely had time for that one. Here is a super fast replacement:

(1)Roush (4th)—WS, WARP, HoM, and OPS+ all agree; why don’t we?
(2)Duffy (3rd)—Most of the extra WS represent something real.
(3)Moore (6th)--Room for some Negro League prime candidates.
(4)Mendez (7th)—Ditto.
(5)Keller (unranked/about 20th)—I whiffed on him. Full war credit gets him to about where Sisler ranks; one season of minor league credit gets him here.
(6)Minoso (5th)—Has the prime; extra credit gives him the career.
(7)Joe Sewell (14th)—SS offense in his league so anemic that his bat was super valuable.
(8)Joe Gordon (10th)—Very similar to Sewell.
(9)Drysdale (new)—Hard to rank; a compromise ranking.
(10)Leach (12th)—Tons of defensive value.
(11)Sisler (11th)—Similar to but a little behind Keller.
(12)Van Haltren (8th)—I love him but lots of his contemporaries are tightly packed.
(13)Pierce (unranked/16th)—Either right behind or right ahead of Drysdale depending on how you adjust for league, park, and decade.
(14)Trouppe (13th)—Best Catcher available.
(15)Oms (15th)—Subjectively and objectively qualified.

Brown (low OBP) and Kiner (about 1 win per season worse than Keller) are in the 20s; Mackey (not enough bat) and Redding (Wilbur Cooperish numbers) are in the 30s or low 40s.

Boyer ranks 20th behind Beckley, Childs, Elliot, and Bob Johnson.

1975 Ballot

I’ve been a bit thrown off by the ever-changing WARPs. I have updated my top 70 or so. A few players had some pretty big leaps and tumbles in my rankings because of the adjustments...

1) Pete Browning
Up 10 spots from # 11 (really only 8 if you count the election of Mantle and Mathews). Previously my comment on him was:
The WARP1-WARP2 (timeline, league strength, etc.) adjustment hits Browning pretty hard, but he was an offensive powerhouse and his numbers still justify a spot on the bottom third of the ballot.
I guess he wasn’t hit so hard this time around.

2) Don Drysdale
100 WARP3, 259 Win Shares…Comes out between Ed Walsh and Bob Lemon in my rankings.

3) Ben Taylor
I’m still not sure why the rest of the electorate sees such a big gap between Taylor and Suttles. I can see why some would have Mule higher, but was the breadth of his support due to there being better record-keeping than when Taylor was playing? Anyhow, for full disclosure: I’m ranking Taylor as if he had a Warp3 total of around 105 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively. I get those numbers based on the WS projections on Taylor’s thread mixed with a little of my own subjectivity.

4) Ken Boyer
52.9 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is best out there among hitters.

5) Joe Gordon
I updated Doerr’s WARP—just to check if the old WARP led me to favor the wrong guy, but Gordon still fell short. He makes a nice jump from the bottom of the ballot, though.

6) Dick Redding
7) Jose Mendez
These two are nearly inseparable. The shape of their careers is different, but I see the cumulative value as equivalent.

8) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points Bucky wins out.

9) Joe Sewell
He jumps up as his top 5 WARP come in a close second to Boyer. Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.


10) Willard Brown
I consider the Andre Dawson comparison to be rather complimentary, as Dawson was a classic “5-tool” player, at least early on in his career. As much as Brown’s lack of walks seem to confound analysis of his career, he put up some impressive numbers and is worthy of a ballot spot.

11) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares. I guess it’s just the extra war credit I’m giving Keller that gets him a spot above Kiner.

12) Bill Monroe
13) Dobie Moore
In reevaluating most of the top Negro Leaguers left on my ballot, I felt I was overrating some outfielders (Oms, Poles) and underrating these infielders.

14) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

15) Minnie Minoso


Rest of the Top 50.

16) Charley Jones
17) Dizzy Trout
18) Jake Beckley—One of the biggest movers due to the new WARP, up from the mid-40s. Still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
19) Tommy Leach
20) Jimmy Ryan
21) Bob Johnson
22) Billy Pierce
23) George Van Haltren—WARP revisions were not nice to GVH.
24) Harry Hooper
25) Rabbit Maranville
26) Fred Dunlap
27) Sam Rice
28) Gavy Cravath
29) Bob Elliott
30) Fielder Jones
31) Burleigh Grimes
32) Phil Rizzuto
33) Nellie Fox
34) Alejandro Oms
35) Cy Seymour
36) Vern Stephens
37) Quincy Trouppe
38) Dick Bartell
39) Hugh Duffy
40) George Sisler—Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
41) Dom DiMaggio
42) Spotswood Poles
43) Gil Hodges
44) George Burns
45) Biz Mackey—I’m not convinced his hitting was strong enough to earn him a higher spot.
46) Johnny Pesky
47) Bobby Veach
48) Dave Bancroft
49) Edd Roush
50) Cupid Childs

Computer ate yet another ballot and I barely had time for that one. Here is a super fast replacement:

I always do mine on Word before I post. That way, I don't have to worry about the computer devouring it.

1975 Ballot:

1. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

2. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

3. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

4. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

5. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

6. Don Drysdale - Falls behind Waddell and Mendez in my pitcher rankings. Still, has the numbers needed for induction in my opinion.

7. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. Biz Mackey - Has the hitting and the career length to edge Bresnahan for top catcher in my consideration set.

10. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

11. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

12. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

13. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

14. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

15. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

16. Joe Gordon – Very worthy player. With war credit ranks ahead of Doerr on my second baseman list. Should join him soon.

17. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Drysdale makes me realize that I had him too low. Moves into the top 20 this year.

18. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

19. Willard Brown – Has the hitting I’m looking for, with a slight demerit for the walks. However, I see him as a good enshrinee.

20. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time. Seems we have a lot of second sackers hanging out in the foyer.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding - Not out of consideration but at this stage I have him behind Mendez. However, he could be helped by the new study that will be released at some point.

Record low is 4: Clark Griffith.

Correction/clarification: That is the record for an elect-2 year.

2 is the overall record, set by Earl Averill, in an elect-1 year.

1. Dobie Moore - Hughie-lite, a monster player for not as short as you might think.
2. Jose Mendez - Ed Walsh-lite, probably more criminally underrated than Moore, because his comp, unlike Moore's comp, sailed in. I'll also put forth the comparison to Koufax: His peak was higher (because he actually owned a bat) and longer than Sandy's.
3. Don Drysadale - Clearly an amazing prime, that lasted many years. Bill James had it all wrong in the HOF book, Milt Pappas won't make my top 50.
4. Joe Gordon - As good as Doerr with the stick, not as much with the glove. Flaming out early didn't help, but still a great 2B. Moves up a bit upon re-examination of his war credit.
5. Joe Sewell - The ultimate all-prime career.
6. Ken Boyer - Big prime candidate. Very good hitter, great fielder adds up to a pretty clear HOMer to me.
7. Bucky Walters - I am not quite as alone as I used to be on Bucky. He has the Faber career shape going for him (couple huge years with a long enough career), and I liked Faber.
8. Willard Brown - All the man did was hit; I think he's better than Suttles, who had similar OBP issues, high SLG, but was much less valuable defensively than Brown.
9. Minnie Minoso - Moves up quite a bit with the new MLEs. Are these new numbers a huge change in his case? Not really...but everyone at this point in the ballot is clumped together, and 2 more prime years does nothing but help.
10. Quincy Trouppe - I'm willing to look at him again, but I see all positives from his case, even if he wasn't fabulous with the glove (no evidence he was anything worse than average, though).
11. George Sisler - I only hope Medwick's induction means good things for Sisler's candidacy, because they have similar career shapes, and Sisler is clearly better, IMO. I wrote this comment when Medwick went in, and Sisler's been on a steady rise since. Well deserved.
12. Bob Johnson - Sewell-esque career, though as a corner OF vs. an infielder, thus the difference in their placements.
13. Dick Redding - I don't see the evidence of a super-long career or a super-high peak, but I see more than enough evidence of a long career and a very good peak.
14. Fred Dunlap - One of the 5 best players in baseball for 6 out of 7 years. I'd take him over quite a few people currently in the HOM.
15. Pete Browning - Fielding questions, AA questions are what keep him this low. The man could still hit.

16. Biz Mackey - I think he had a great prime, between his solid hitting and amazing defense. His career essentially ends with his prime, which holds him down this low.
17. Billy Pierce - A little better (less peak, more prime) than Dizzy Trout. As compared to Walters, the peak really hurts him (and the prime is not much better; the career obviously is).

18. Fielder Jones
19. Dizzy Trout
20. Bob Elliot
21. Urban Shocker

22-25: Monroe, Rizzuto, Oms, Bond
26-30: Howard, Luque, Van Haltren, Matlock, Williamson
31-35: D. Dimaggio, Uhle, Grimes, Scales, Kiner
36-40: B. Taylor, Lundy, King, Veach, Buffinton
41-45: Poles, Harder, Dean, H. Smith, Mays
46-50: Clift, Childs, Bartell, Klein, Cross


Vargas - I still have zero feel for him. I suspect he would fit into my top 50, but I don't feel I have the numbers at all with which to make an accurate ranking of him. Is there more discussion yet aside from the one post in his thread? (Leaving this on my ballot and switching to bold till I get some more information, dammit! :D )

Mackey - #16. See above.

Kiner - #35. Hitting prime/peak was not long enough to overcome the complete zero he was with the glove. Heilmann, as an example, was as bad with the glove or worse, but hit for quite a bit longer than did Kiner.

GVH - #28. Best 90s hitter remaining, not quite enough peak to make my ballot, especially considering that the 90s were not packed with inner circle guys, unlike the era immediately preceeding.

1975 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold. This year’s inductees are Don Drysdale and in a throwback, Iron Man McGinnity)

1. Dick Redding

One of the 3 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Redding, Mendez and Waddell), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

4. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

5. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little.

6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Don Drysdale

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

10. John McGraw

Went PHoM a couple of years ago.

11. Joe Sewell
12. Biz Mackey

He’ll get in soon enough…

13. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

14. Willard Brown
15. (N)Ed Williamson

16-20. Burns (good), Minoso, Keller, Veach, B. Taylor
21-25. Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy, B. Johnson
26-30. Trouppe, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs, Klein
31-35. Monroe, Tiernan, Kiner, Hooper, Gordon
36-40. F. Jones, Traynor, Shocker, Boyer, Bradley
41-45. Walters, Roush, Cicotte, Howard, Leach
46-50. Chance, Griffin, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang

Previous Top 10s:
Joe Gordon is at 35.
Beckley is 52.

GVH is not in the top 100.

Record low is 4: Clark Griffith.

Correction/clarification: That is the record for an elect-2 year.


Griffith may not be the holder of that record after today.

BTW, since the race for the second spot is fairly close, no ballots will be accepted after 8 PM EST.

I apologize if this ballot does not respond to issues raised in the last week and a half as life has been incredibly busy. If the ballot is challenged, please email me as I will respond quicker to that. I have a Keltner List for Duffy finished, but I will not be able to post it until late tonight at the earliest.

To recap my balloting:
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots.

I'm in the process of figuring decade by decade comparisons. I’ll be finished for the 1975 election. It is looking like Minoso and Gordon are definitely going to be beneficiaries of the revamp.

1975 Ballot

PHOM Inductees: Don Drysdale and TBA.

1. Mickey Welch - Wrongfully ignored at the beginning of balloting. The weight of the evidence: record against other HoMers, number of innings pitched, similarity to other HoMers.

2. Charley Jones - Fantastic hitter from 1876-1885. I believe some voters are not taking into account that he was blacklisted for 2.16 seasons. Please see the Keltner List I posted on the Charley Jones/Lip Pike Thread for my reasoning. The weight of the evidence – best player on his teams every year, top 10 or top 5 among position players every year. Great OPS+. A dominant player from 1876 to 1886.

3. Pete Browning - Fantastic hitter.

4. Hugh Duffy - Very good hitter and fantastic defender. He is 5th among position players in the 1890s by my system. Working on the Keltner List for him.

Yes, I have my Olde-Timey Teddy Bears.
But Jones ranks ahead of the following HoMer LFs in my system: Stovey, Magee, Kelley, Sheckard, Goslin, Wheat, Medwick, and Irvin.
Browning ranks ahead of the following HoMer CFs: Averill, Doby, and Ashburn and is comparable in peak, prime, and seasonal to Gore, Snider, Hines, and Hamilton.
Duffy is right behind Browning and I feel people have disregarded the fact his A+ outfield grade is made from less than half time in CF.

5. Charlie Keller - Great power and on-base skills. Credit for WWII - 1.75 seasons. 6 years where only Williams, DiMaggio, and Musial were better. Better than Kelley, Sheckard, Goslin, Wheat, Medwick, and Irvin. One of the biggest surprises in this whole experiment.

6. Quincy Troupe - Good hitting catcher who took walks and played forever at a high level. James says he was an All-Star in 23 different leagues, but gives no source. Cut that in half and that is still 11.5 times. Wow.

7. Jose Mendez – see Vic Willis comment

8. Don Drysdale – see Vic Willis comment

9. Bucky Walters – see Vic Willis comment

10. Willard Brown

11. Alejandro Ohms
Brown and Ohms had careers that my system loves – great high-all-star level play for 7 or more years with many other surrounding years. Brown was a phenomenal power hitter. Brown hit for power and average in the NeL, Puerto Rico, and the California Winter Leagues. Ohms hit for average and took more walks. Both players are worthy enshrinement in the HoM.

12. Cupid Childs - Dominant second baseman of the 1890s. There is no real competition. He was better than HoMer Bid McPhee most every year. There were very few infielders to do well with WS in the 1890s.

13. Vic Willis.
Ranking in League / Majors by win shares:
Drysdale: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7, 9, 9 / 1, 2, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, 14, 16
Walters: 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8
Willis: 1, 1, 2, 2, 5, 8, 9, 9, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 18, 20, 20+
Mendez had a Koufax-ian peak 5 years from 1910 to 1914 with his performances against white teams as a bonus.
1910: 28 win shares would be 7th in the majors, 3rd in NL or 5th in AL behind: Jack Coombs 37, Walter Johnson and Ed Walsh 36, Ford 35, Mathewson 30, Three Finger Brown 29.
1911: 31 win shares would be tied for 3rd in the majors, tied for 3rd in the NL and tied for 1st in the AL behind: GC Alexander 34, Mathewson 32 and tied with Rucker, Johnson, and Walsh
1912: 40+ win shares would be 3rd in the majors, 1st in the NL and 3rd in the AL behind: Johnson 47 and Joe Wood 44 and tied with Walsh 40.
1913: 31 win shares would be 3rd in the majors, 1st in the NL and 3rd in the AL behind: Johnson 54 and Russel 32.
1914: 36 win shares would be tied for 2nd in majors, tied for 1st in NL and 2nd in AL behind: Johnson 38 and tied with Bill James 36.
1923: 21 win shares would be tied for 13th in majors, 5th in NL and 8th in AL.
These numbers could be increased by 1 or 2 each year for batting contributions if you wish.

14. Tommy Leach. 5 times in the top 4 players in NL, plus 2 others in top 7. If you like defense and you believe 3rd base was more important of a defensive position in the Dead-Ball Era, I urge to take a look at him. Also, he was an excellent defensive CF’er. A key, along with Fred Clarke and Honus Wagner to Pittsburgh’s great teams in the first 15 years of the century.

15. Dobie Moore: Holway has him as an All-Star for 6 straight years, 1920 – 1925. Based on Chris Cobb’s numbers from post 7 of the Moore thread, best short stop in the majors in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, 1925 and second in 1923. Hit for average and power. I give 4 years of credit for Wrecker play.

1975 Ballot

<u>Only newcomers and Top 20 outfielders have comments</u>. For my opinion on catchers, infielders, and pitchers, see posts 88-90 and 94-95 in the 1973 Ballot Discussion thread. Catchers got an overall bump up this year.

Each player has their 73-74 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Mickey Mantle (1) and Ed Mathews (2).

Thank you, Chris Cobb and jschmeagol (#s 192 and 194 in the Ballot Discussion thread) for the information about Willard Brown.

1. Jose Mendez (2-3)
2. Joe Gordon (3-4)
3. Quincy Trouppe (4-5)
4. Don Drysdale (new)

On the low end of the HoM, but above the backlog. 3432 IP, 121 ERA+, and four consecutive quality 40+ start, 300+ innings seasons (1962-65) is fine by me.

5. Alejandro Oms (5-7)

Under-appreciated thus far. Like Jose Mendez, he was a dominant player for almost a decade in very strong Cuban leagues.

6. Billy Pierce (6-6)
7. Wally Schang (8-9)
8. Ken Boyer (new)

Debuts here on the strength of his consecutive seven-year peak (1958-64).

9. Dick Redding (7-8)
10. George Sisler (11-11)
11. Nellie Fox (9-10)
12. Orestes Minoso (12-14)

He and Kiner flip-flop again - this time, I think Minoso's well-rounded skill set is more meritious than Kiner's slugging. Oms is very comparable, but a half-notch better.

13. Biz Mackey (off-15)
14. Ralph Kiner (14-12)

Among high-peak sluggers, I prefer Kiner to Keller, Cravath, and the 19th-century guys - but the margin of preference is paper-thin.

15. Joe Sewell (13-13) - never played against his strong NeL SS contemporaries.

16-20: Gavvy Cravath, Jake Beckley, Phil Rizzuto, Tommy Leach, Willard Brown.
21-25: Edd Roush, Adolfo Luque, Dave Bancroft, Elston Howard, Vic Willis.

16-20: Chance, Redding, Burns, Kiner, Grimes
Dick Redding is moving closer to my ballot. I had not been giving him any World War I credit. I am now giving him credit and that boosts him some.
Redding ranks by translated win shares:
1911: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Mendez and the 5 pitchers listed above plus Ford and Gregg (each had 28)
1915: 40 win shares would rank him 3rd behind Alexander 43 and Johnson 42 and miles ahead of anyone else.
1916: 33 win shares would rank him 4th behind Alexander 44, Ruth 37, and Johnson 36.
1917: 27 win shares would rank him 8th behind Alexander 40, Ruth 36, Cheater 35, Bagby 34, Mays 30, Johnson and Coveleski 29.
1920: 19 win shares would rank him between 16th and 20th in the majors.
1921: 21 win shares would rank him 15th in the majors.
1922: 19 win shares would rank him about 20th in the majors.
Redding is missing a 5th big year that would put him easily on the ballot.
Kiner’s career is not that long and I give one year of credit for a WWII late start.

21-25: Cooper, Cravath, Minoso, Mackey, Van Haltren
Mackey lacks the big years that catchers of his era had. Look at Cochrane, Dickey, and Hartnett. Mackey is great defensively and I would not look askance at his election to the HoM, but I do not believe he is the best catcher candidate.
Minoso: Not enough big years.
George Van Haltren: He had the over 25 win shares seasons my system likes, but during the 1890s, the best outfielders got 30+ a year. It was the best decade to be an outfielder. GVH does not match his cohort group for achievement.

30. George Sisler: Peak and prime are not high enough to balance out career totals that are not remarkable. Hit counting numbers are greatly influenced by playing in the best batting average park of his day.

31. Joe Gordon: I need to reevaluate 1940s and 1950s infielders. I think he is much better than Bobby Doerr. In neutral parks, Gordon is a much better hitter. I think many voters have not considered the Coors Field-like hitting environment that was Fenway Park in the 1940s. Doerr hit 223 career homers to Gordon’s 253, but he hit 145 of them at Fenway. From the first BJHBA, here are Gordon’s and Doerr’s Road Numbers:
Player G HR AVG OBP SLG
Doerr 911 78 .261 .327 .389
Gordon 797 134 .279 .367 .482
Which one is the better player?

Ken Boyer: I have the 3rd best 3rd baseman of the 60s and the 25th best position player of the 60s. I don’t think that is going to be high enough to ever make my ballot. His peak, prime, and career are all good, but neither individually nor in combination do they make him Hall-worthy.

Curt Flood: Remarkably important for his contributions to baseball, but not good enough as a player to make the HoM.

Bill White: Another of the Cardinals’ collection of HoVG players that allowed them and the Dodgers to rule the NL in the Sixties. Not enough peak or prime or career.

Roy Face: I have him as about the 20th-25th best reliever of all-time. Very Good, but not a HoMer. Not enough good years.

1975 Ballot

Time to stop agonizing and vote!

I rank players first against their peers, using a measure that weighs career value, total value above average, and peak rate about equally. To address changing competition levels, I pro-rate players’ rank numbers according to a rough period quota, which is mostly based on the number of major-league quality teams active. Win shares is my metric of choice, but I adjust it for a variety of factors and calculate my own win shares for pitchers. Once my system produces a first rank order, I adjust it by means of head-to-head comparisons between players.

Overall, a very even field. The players who stand out for me right now are mostly NeL players or other players with significant non-league or war credit. I think the electorate is being a little bit too conservative on these players, and they are better choices than any of the players whose full merit is on the table in their major-league accomplishments.

1. Dick Redding (3). It’s hard to get a clear sense of how good his peak was, but his career is #4 among NeL pitchers after Paige, Williams, and Ray Brown. I guess I’m not impressed by his falling short of HoF induction. If I had to explain it, I’d guess that they had full and not especially impressive data from the later 1920s, when he was winding down his career managing and pitching for the not-especially-impressive Brooklyn Royal Giants. What they needed was good data from the teens, when he was at his peak. Adj. rank in 1910s: #13.5. 1+ seasons war credit. 304 MLE cws, 104 tp, pr 14-18 34.78/365 ip, 10 seasons at/above avg.
2. Willard Brown (4) I haven’t integrated the improved walk rates into my system yet, but downward adjustment of 1920s players moves him past Oms. Cooperstown picking him doesn’t hurt his case with me. Adj. rank in 1940s: #14. 2 seasons war credit. 375 MLE cws, 69 tp, pr 35-39 = 27.40, 12 seasons at/above avg.
3. Joe Gordon (5). Bests Doerr on peak, but both should be HoMers. Adj. rank in 1940s: #15.5. 2 seasons war credit. 317 cws, 64 tp (I increase infielders’ cws and peak ws by 10% when comparing them to other positions), pr 39-43 = 28.52, 11 seasons at/above avg.
4. Jose Mendez (6). Best pitching peak on the board, and his comeback play in the 1920s gives him enough career value for election, as I see it. And so did Cooperstown, apparently. Adj. rank in 1910s. 14.5. 260 MLE cws, 112 total peak, pr 10-14 = 38.97 / 365 ip, 7 seasons at/above avg.
5. Alejandro Oms (7). Did everything well for a long time. How carefully did the Coop committee look at his CWL play? Adj. rank in 1920s: #17. 357 MLE cws, 78 tp, pr 21-25 = 30.11 / 162 g, 9 seasons at/above avg.
6. Gavvy Cravath (9). Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. My study of top 7 consecutive seasons placed his peak below Keller, Kiner, and Sisler, but he has nearly three top seasons in the AA outside that peak. Adj. 1910s rank: #16. 5 seasons MLE credit. 334 cws, 71 tp, pr 13-17 = 32.27, 9 seasons at/above average.
7. Ralph Kiner (10). Great peak versus strong competition. Adj. 1940s rank: #17.5. 2 seasons war credit. 300 cws, 72 tp, pr 47-52 = 33.00, 8 seasons at/above avg.
8. Biz Mackey (11). My current view of his stats placed him right in the company of other players with long careers as defensive specialists: Rabbit Maranville and Herman Long, both of whom I have decided to rank again where my system puts them, rather than down-grading them because of their poor consensus showing. The Nellie Fox discussion of fielding value has persuaded me that their candidacies have suffered because they have low OPS+ scores, and not necessarily because rigorous arguments have shown them to be poorer players than the comprehensive metrics suggest. So Mackey, Maranville, and Long make a ballot trio of fielding stars in my rankings. Adj. 1920s rank: #20. 390 MLE cws (catcher-adj.), 47 tp, pr 22-28 = 25.23, 10 seasons at/above avg.
9. Rabbit Maranville (12). Back on my ballot for the first time since 1942. Benefits both from reconsideration of 1910s stars and from reconsideration of fielding stars. It should be remembered that he lost a year of his prime to WWI. If the lively ball hadn’t been introduced in the middle of his career, I suspect he would already be in the HoM. Relatively low number of above-average seasons relative to his career is a concern, and I’m going to continue to evaluate Maranville & Long-type infielder careers against the Sewell-type of career for next election, but this ranking represents my current best sense of the relative merits of the two types. Adj. 1910s rank: #17. 1 season war credit. 361 cws, 32 tp, pr 14-19 = 26.78, 8 seasons at/above avg.
10. Herman Long (13). Huge jump back into consideration. This is where my system puts him, and I’ve been ignoring it in favor of the consensus. Then I wonder why I don’t have many infielders on or near my ballot?? Hmm. . . Reassessment of infielder defense will continue next year. Similar career to Maranville. A bit shorter, a bit higher peak. Adj. 1890s rank #18.5. 336 cws, 40 5p, pr 89-93 = 30.54, 8 seasons at/above avg.
11. Minnie Minoso (8). A lot like Ashburn and Oms in that he had a long, strong, consistent prime without having a really outstanding peak. I’m giving WARP’s lukewarm view of him a little more weight this year, as I try to be fairer to infielders. Adj. 1950s rank: #16.5. 3 seasons MLE credit. 353 cws, 73 tp, pr 54-59 = 29.39. 11 seasons at/above avg.
12. Burleigh Grimes (14). Another 1920s player slides down a bit. His mix of good and bad seasons is peculiar, but he had a lot of good years. I think my system tends to overrate this kind of pitcher slightly, which is why I have him ranked slightly below where it says I should put him. Adj. 1920s rank: #19. 303 cws, 133 tp, pr 20-24 = 27.33 / 325 ip. 11 seasons at/above avg.
13. Billy Pierce (15). Much more consistently good than Grimes, but less heft to his career. Adj. 1950s rank: #19. 282 cws, 107 tp, pr 55-59 = 30.77 / 305 ip, 12 seasons at/above avg.
14. Nellie Fox (16). Makes my ballot for the first time. I think he is worthy of election: he’s right on my all-time in/out line, but that won’t be enough to get him on to the ballot until we get deeper into the backlog in the mid-1970s. I’m pretty certain that Gordon is a stronger candidate, but I’ll be comparing him to Maranville, Long, Childs, Elliott, Rizzuto, Sewell, and Dobie Moore with care over the next couple of years. Adjusted 1950s rank: #20. 316 cws, 52 tp, pr 54-59 = 26.85 (5), 10 at/above avg.
15. Don Drysdale. (n/e). Just makes my ballot in his first year of eligibility. I’d rather we not elect him right away, as I think his record needs more sifting, but based on what I know, I simply can’t justify a more conservative placement. Adj. 1960s rank #19.

Consensus top-ten returning players not on my ballot:

George Sisler. See #20 below.
George Van Haltren. See #34 below
Dobie Moore. See #40 below.

1975 Off Ballot.

16. Bobo Newsom (17). A lot like Burleigh Grimes, but without the spitball and without the hitting. Adj. 1940s rank: #19.5. 297 cws, 120 tp, pr 36-40 = 30.20 / 305 ip, 11 seasons at/above avg.
17. Rube Waddell (20). Adj. 1900s rank: #20.5. 270 cws, 125 tp, pr 02-06 = 38.44 / 365, 9 seasons at/above avg.
18. Bucky Walters (22). A few great seasons, but career isn’t all that compelling. Adj. 1940s rank: #20.5. 260 cws, 105 tp, pr 39-44 = 32.37/325, 7 seasons at/above avg.
19. Charley Jones (26). Adj. 1880s rank: #23.4. 2+ years blacklist credit. 358 ws, tp 80, pr 78-80, 83-85 = 32.98, 11 seasons at/above avg.
20. George Sisler (24). I’ve been a long-time moderate supporter of Sisler, but sustaining that support was leading my ballot to increasingly uncomfortable convolutions. Dropping him down just below the all-time in-out line makes more sense. I wouldn’t regard his election as a significant mistake by any means, but I will no longer advocate for his election. An excellent player during his peak, but sadly diminished after his sinus troubles. Moves up a little bit this year because I’ve decided that the defensive bonus I have been giving pre-lively ball first basemen is still too small to make up for the WARP and WS underrating of 1b defense during the period. Beckley benefits more from this adjustment, but it helps Sisler, too. Adj. 1920s rank: #21. 327 cws, 62 tp, pr 16-22 = 32.87, 8 seasons at/above avg.
21. Mickey Welch (21). Exceedingly hard to rank pre-1893 pitchers vs later players. I rather wish we’d elected Welch back in the day, but I can’t quite see bringing him on to my ballot now. Adj. 1880s rank: #20.5. 415 cws, 184 tp, pr 26.44 / 365, 9 seasons at/above avg.
22. Cupid Childs (32). Reevaluation of 1890s candidates boosts Childs. Adj. 1890s rank: #21.5 .
23. Charlie Keller (46). Like many others, I was underrating him. In my case, I had decided that win shares was overrating him (it is) because he played consistently on great teams, but I dropped him more than the numbers really warranted. A more rigorous analysis places him a hair behind Sisler. If I gave him minor-league credit, he might make my ballot. Adj. 1940s rank 21.5. 1.7 seasons war credit.
24. Tommy Leach (25). Adj. 1900s rank: #21. 365 cws, 52 tp, pr 01-09 = 29.81, 8 at/above avg.
25. Edd Roush (23). At his best, a very high impact player, but his ranking is hurt because he missed a lot of games. Adj. 1920s rank: #22. 333 cws, 57 tp, pr 17-23 = 33.77, 9 seasons at/ above avg.
26. Jimmy Ryan (28). Moved him ahead of Van Haltren because a) WARP likes him better, and the new below-average view of Van Haltren’s CF defense fits both the win-shares assessment and the apparent raw fielding data better and b) I realized that his low WARP/WS totals during much of the 90s were more to reduced playing time than to truly mediocre quality of play (unlike Sisler). Below Roush & Sisler mostly because of the shortness of his peak. Adj. 1890s rank: 20
27. Byrd (26). #21.5 1940s,
28. Bresnahan (30)
29. Elliott (36). Decided he was better than Larry Doyle.
30. Ken Boyer (n/e). Very close in value to Elliott. I’m in the process of rethinking infielders, so this is a rather provisional ranking. I’m certain he’s not as good as Joe Gordon overall and that his career is inferior to Maranville’s and Long’s, but other than that I’m certain about very little among the IF candidates. I expect to make significant re-arrangements of them once I get the WARP side of my rankings up to speed.
31. Bond #22.5 1870s,
32. Newcombe #21 1950s,
33. Arlett #23 1920s.
34. George Van Haltren (19). Fine prime, but peak performance never approached MVP level of play. New Warp hurt him in my evaluation, as it but their assessment of his fielding in line with the win shares view of it, and in line with below-average team defense. I now must prefer Ryan, but not Duffy, to Van Haltren, and I think we should elect infielders rather than outfielders from the 1890s at this point. Adj. 1890s rank: #22.8. 379 cws, 47 total peak, pr 93-98 = 27.80, 12 seasons at/above avg.,
35. Matlock #26.5 1930s,
36. Doyle #18 1910s,
37. Poles #19 1910s.
38. Shocker.
39. Mays
40. Dobie Moore. Provisional placement. I’ve been working on updated MLEs for him, should have those ready to post later this week.

Rankings below 40 are under construction and not open to the public this year . . .

1975 Ballot


1-Dick Redding
After some more study I moved Redding up to number 1. Everything I read puts him as one of the top three or four dominate pitchers of early Negro League days (prior to ’30).
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick Redding was given the shaft on February 27.

2-Biz Mackey
I’m still high on Biz…but I’m convinced right now that Redding deserves the nod over him. He’s one of the top three catchers in most Negro League depth charts…along with Gibson & Santop.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
He’s getting closer all the time! If he hadn’t gone off to play in Oakland (PCL) maybe his career value would be enough to convince voters. He could’ve helped several teams with lousy outfields after he left the Giants.

4-Don Drysdale 258 WS
I’m trying not to let my personal bias get in the way. I grew up watching Big D at Dodger Stadium. He helped the Dodgers out from his early years to near the end. He has good career value (for a 14 year career) plus a strong peak.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
Never gets his due. He is discounted because of the war years. I consider him the best of the four that get lumped together (Stephens, Gordon, Doerr and Rizzuto).

7-Joe Gordon 242 WS
I’m a big Gordon fan. James made a great case that Gordon & Stephens should be honored ahead of Rizzuto and Doerr. Yes…it was a short career but he made the most of his time….first as a Yank and then as an Indian. Later traded as a manager!

8-Wally Schang 245 WS
He played for several flag winners and played in the World Series with A’s, Red Sox and Yankees. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

9-Ken Boyer 279 WS
1 MVP…5 Gold Gloves and the HOM could use some more Third Baseman.

10-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

11-Gil Hodges 263 WS
He’s always been penalized for having his numbers from the 50s compared to other eras. It may take awhile but Gil will eventually be in the HOM. Also hurt by the way his playing career tailed off at the end.

12-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Minnie had one of the most interesting careers in baseball history. With a late start he still made 7 All-Star teams. His SB numbers would be off the chart if they ran more in the 50s. Some credit for Negro Leagues.

13-Willard Brown
He didn’t get much of a chance with the Browns. But some reports claim Brown was the top power hitter in the Negro Leagues in the 1940s.

14-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

15-George Sisler 292 WS
Yes…I broke down and added him to my ballot. I had Ralph Kiner next in line and knew I had to take another look. Strong Gray Ink and good Black Ink marks. His OPS ranking dropped in the mid-20s…but he was getting old.

Mendez deserves further study. I had him on my ballot for awhile. I’ll see if he can push someone off next time. Kiner…I just don’t know…yes he has good Win Share numbers for a short career…but I just can’t pull the trigger. I know it’s only 1975 but I can’t help thinking of Dave Kingman.

Note to whoever made the Mantle comment to me during the last election...yes I was talking about the early LA Angels and the Dodgers in '63. I saw the Angels play at old LA Wrigley Field and Chavez Ravine before Anaheim. I'm sorry I wasn't more specific for you...and hopefully I did a better job of proof reading my ballot this time. Thank you for your input.

Reevaluation of my ballot moves Dean, Gordon and Sisler up, Browning, Walters and Fox down.

1.Duffy PHoM in 1912. 1890’s underrepresented. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons
2.Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
3.Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964. Closest thing on ballot to Koufax.
4.Cravath PHoM 1967. Would have been in my PHoM 35 years sooner had the mle’s been available.
5.Mackey PHoM 1958. The only unanimous pick of the Cool Papa’s survey of experts.
6.Brown, Willard PHoM 1975. A closer look moves him up.
7.Leach PHoM 1926. Favorite teddy bear.
8.Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
9.Dean 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks puts Diz on my ballot for the first time.
10.Gordon 1975 reevaluation of middle infielders puts Gordon on ballot for first time.
11.Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. Dropping a few spots in 1975 – too many corner OF near top of my ballot.
12.Drysdale He was no Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Ford or maybe even Bunning, but still good enough to make the HoM.
13.Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
·3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
·5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
·8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
·WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
·OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
·NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16
·HoM Support – Roush slowly coming around?; Ashburn – elected as shiny new toy! That’s a shame.
14.Minoso PHoM 1972.
15.Sisler 1975 reevaluation puts him on ballot for first time in 30 years.
16.Walters PHoM 1968. Preferring his peak to Wynn’s career.
17.Browning PHoM 1906 and returned to my ballot in 1960 for the first time since 1933.
18.Fox Do we need a 2B to bridge the Jackie to Joe gap?
19.Cooper, W. Doesn’t look like the HoM will have any pitchers wearing a Pirates cap either. By WS one of top 2 pitchers in NL 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924. PHoM 1942. HoF just admitted the wrong Cooper.
20. Pierce Could move up, by WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.

Oops, I almost posted last year's ballot again! Mickey doesn't need any more of my votes.

Some definite reshuffling this week, and I am starting to worry that the top of my ballot is getting a little Negro League-heavy (5 of the top 6, 6 of the top 9 plus Minoso), but that is the way I see them. Also realized I still had Clark Griffith in my off-ballot list as an active candidate, which means that people are giving that part of the ballot about as much attention as it deserves.

It may be a bad thing that I seem to be easily influenced by people’s arguments, but all it ever seems to lead to is moving guys up 10 spots who still don’t make my top 15 (Waddell, Roush, Willis, Bancroft)

Jose Mendez and Bobby Doerr make my PHoM.

1. Willard Brown (3) More recent analysis has made me feel more certain about his value, and less concerned about the walks. Best combination of quality hitting and career length on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1967.

2. Tommy Leach (4) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Funny that he slips after a lot of people pushing for him on a recent ballot discussion thread, but the season-by-season analysis wasn't flattering. Made my PHoM in 1940.

3. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

4. Dobie Moore (7) We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

5. Quincy Trouppe (9) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

6. Dick Redding (8) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. Made my PHoM in 1973.

7. Minnie Minoso (11) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Gets a bit of an era boost, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Made my PHoM in 1971

8. George Van Haltren (13) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM lin 1972

9. Jose Mendez (12) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer. Makes my PHoM this year.

(9A Bobby Doerr)

10. Joe Sewell (6) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

11. Cupid Childs (10) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Dropped behind Doerr this year because I’m emphasizing prime a little more than I used to Made my PHoM in 1932

(11A Red Ruffing)

12. Ken Boyer (new) Haven’t updated my WARP numbers for everyone else, so I’m worried about overrating him. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.

13. Don Drysdale (new) Very similar to Pierce, but with a clear advantage in # of innings pitched. 11 times in the top 10 for Drysdale, 6 for Pierce. That’s enough to put him ahead, but I wouldn’t want to induct him until we get a better grasp of his contemporaries.

(13A Joe Medwick)

14. Bob Johnson (15) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

(14A Richie Ashburn)

15. Billy Pierce (14) There really isn’t much separating him from Ruffing or Drysdale when you look at the totality, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive.


16. Gavvy Cravath (16) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Rixey, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.
17. Joe Gordon (17) Extremely similar to Doerr.
18. Bus Clarkson (18) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
19. Jake Beckley. (19) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
20. Rube Waddell (30) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. May move up some more.
21. Biz Mackey (20) I don’t really see him as induction-worthy, but maybe his reputation should get more weight than I'm giving it.
22. Alejandro Oms (22) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(22A Cool Papa Bell, 22B Max Carey)
23. Phil Rizzuto (21) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
(23A Clark Griffith)
24. Charlie Keller (24) Now I’m seeing him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
25. Ben Taylor (26) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
(25A Sam Thompson, 25B Rube Foster)
26. Bob Elliott (26) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
27. Edd Roush (38) Maybe he was a great player in Oakland City, but it was his choice to be there, so tough luck.
28. Vern Stephens (28) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
(28A Hughie Jennings)
29. George Sisler (31) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
30. Nellie Fox (27) Just can't have him ahead of Doerr & Gordon. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
31. Bucky Walters
32. Ralph Kiner (33) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
33. Roger Bresnahan
34. Charley Jones
35. Dave Bancroft
36. Vic Willis
37. Pie Traynor
38. Bobby Veach
39. Burleigh Grimes
40. Elston Howard

This could be the closest election since 1916. As far as I can tell, a mere 11 points separates second- to sixth place right now.

I know it’s only 1975 but I can’t help thinking of Dave Kingman.

Ummm...Kiner's career OBP is almost 100 points higher than Kingman. They're not really comparable at all.

Here are the second-to-sixth point totals. Can someone (Grandma?) confirm?

431-424-418-413-410

Voting closes in an hour and fifteen minutes!

We don't normally post stuff like that, BTW. I agree with Dave Parker's scoring, not what James Newburg has.

I have 424-419-418-413-413.

BTW, sorry if I broke any rules. I figured that as long as I didn't name any players, it'd be OK.

I have 424-419-418-413-413.

You don't have to name names. I'm voting again!

Please, no further discussion of potential results.
Thank you!

I'm going to be unavoidably detained, so the results most likely wont be on time.

Apologies for positng specific numbers; I thought I was on the right side of the rules.

I'm going to be unavoidably detained, so the results most likely wont be on time.

I won't do the consensus scores until after I've had a chance to cross-check the results - which probably won't be before 10:00 p.m PDT.