And those consensus scores will have an average near -13, lower than any of the last few years but not seriously threatening the record of -15.4 (1968).

Of 1974 voters, Dolf Lucky, KJOK, and Joe Dimino haven't voted yet in 1975. All of them frequently post at the last minute.

Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

4. DON DRYSDALE, P.32 POW, 100 WARP1, 229 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,432 innings. Does well in almost every measurement I use.

5. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

6. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

7. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

10. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

11. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

12. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

13. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

14. KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, , 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

15. BIZ MACKEY, C. . Estimated 98 OPS+ over 9,020 PA’s. Suffers in comparison with Josh Gibson, but a .300 hitting Gold Glove Catcher in his prime had to be a very valuable player. However, I think Trouppe was better for more seasons.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:
Drysdale and Boyer both made ballot.
RETURNEES:

GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

WILLARD BROWN, RF. Estimated 131 OPS+ over 8,407 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Closest comps seem to be Jose Canseco and Rocky Colavito.

JOE GORDON, 2B.29 POW, .583 OWP, 259 RCAP, 84 WARP1, 6,536 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Right behind Doerr and Childs.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr, Childs, & Gordon.

I'm back.

Boy, this is a humdinger of an election!

Joe hasn't responded, so I don't know what's happening with him. I'll still making the cutoff at 8, but I'm not arguing with him if he contests it. :-)

The election is now over. Results will not be posted shortly, so I'll just give you the meat and potatoes for now: Drysdale and Mackey (besting Willard Brown by 1 point!)

That's a shock (if verified). From what I saw, Mendez was making a strong charge today, as was Brown. But Mackey?

I do agree with John. My unofficial tally:

Drysdale 659
Mackey 425
Brown 424
Sisler 418
Mendez 413
Gordon 413

I'll still making the cutoff at 8, but I'm not arguing with him if he contests it. :-)

So I withhold congratulations.

This is the first time I have been here and paying attention in early evening. I wonder whether anyone makes phone calls to bring another voter to the polls. Or jams phone calls!

So I withhold congratulations.

Unless Joe changed his ballot radically, it wouldn't change anything anyway.

Wow - this is what I would have done . . . would have made the difference:

I think I've got a re-worked prelim . . .

1. Beckley (3)
2. Cravath (4)
3. Easter (5)
4. Drysdale (n/e)
5. Pierce (6)
6. Kiner (7)
7. C.Jones (8)
8. Gordon (15)
9. Van Haltren (11)
10. Rizzuto (9)
11. Howard (12)
12. Fox (10)
13. Bancroft (-)
14. Trucks (13)
15. Leach (14)

16-20. Minoso, Schang, Bridges, Sewell, Boyer
21-25. Stephens, Leonard, W.Brown, Walters, B.Johnson
26-30. Moore, Monroe, Lombardi, Trout, Mackey
31-35. Taylor, Ryan, Keller, Bartell, Waddell

Dave Bancroft, Dick Bartell, Buddy Myer, Ed Cicotte, Dolf Luque return to the consideration set, which now numbers 81.

****************

I woke up late, and raced off to work.

I got stuck in an hour and fifteen minute traffic jam (two medivac helicoptors on I-70, literally didn't move for an hour and 15 minutes), so when I got there, I couldn't check my email, as the game had already started (for those of you that don't know, I do the mlb.com Gameday webcasts for Baltimore and Washington as a part-time job).

So I didn't get John's reminder, nor did I get a chance to then ask him to use my prelim.

Wow.

Joe,

That day sounds like "teh suck," as the kids would say. It'll be even worse when the Friends of Joe Gordon brigade storm your in-box with virtual torches and pitchforks. >:~D

LOL James

If it didn't make a difference, I would include it, Joe. But I'm glad that you are agreeing to sit this one out.

It'll be even worse when the Friends of Joe Gordon brigade storm your in-box with virtual torches and pitchforks.

<grumbles> :-)

BTW, does that me the only voter who has submitted a ballot every year since '98?

I've made them all, John.

I've made them all, John.

Another indefatigable spirit, I see. :-)

I have voted in every election too, and I guess that there are a few more of us.

I have voted in every election.

I've made them all, John.

Me five.

Me six.

We need one more so we can call ourselves "The Magnificent Seven. " Damn you, Joe! :-D

Not me - I'm not a founder, and I first cast a ballot in 1904. Haven't missed one since then.

Number seven right here.

The original 29:

Howie Menckel, Andrew Siegel, Mark McKinniss, Carl Goetz,
Sean Gilman, MattB, Philip, Marc,
RobC, RMc, Rick A., KJOK, Rob Wood,
David, thebigeasy, TomH, Brian Hodes,
Adam Schafer, dan b, ed phatyou, Joe Dimino,
Jeff M, John Murphy, Al Peterson, jimd,
Devin McCullen, Michael D, Esteban Rivera, DanG

I can't tell you who from that list has perfect attendance, however.

Make it "The Magnificent Eight."

Say they have voted in every election (8): Howie Menckel, John Murphy, Tom H, Rob Wood, jimd, Andrew Siegel, Esteban Rivera, Sean Gilman

Voted in both 1st and most recent election, no claims yet on 'every year' (9): Marc/sunnyday; Rick A; KJOK; Adam Schafer; dan b; Jeff M; Al Peterson; Devin McCullen; DanG

Voted in 1st election, but not in last one so out of the mix here(12) Mark McKinniss; Carl Goetz; MattB; Philip; RobC; RMc; David; thebigeasy; Brian Hodes; ed phatyou; Michael D; Joe Dimino
(But maybe a couple of those 'originals' changed their handle like marc/sunnyday?)

I suspect someone has a spreadsheet listing votes by voter per year, or something, to clarify who voted in what years...

I missed a couple.

--Formerly Marc, now sunnyday2, occasionally snarky

I missed one - 1909

I also missed one - 1971

Make it "The Magnificent Eight."

Magnificent Nine right here.

So that makes it:


Say they have voted in every election (9): Howie Menckel, John Murphy, Tom H, Rob Wood, jimd, Andrew Siegel, Esteban Rivera, Sean Gilman, Rick A

Voted in both 1st and most recent election, no claims yet on 'every year' (5): KJOK; Adam Schafer; Jeff M; Al Peterson; Devin McCullen

Voted in 1st election, but not in last one OR say they have NOT voted in all, so out of the mix here (15) Mark McKinniss; Carl Goetz; MattB; Philip; RobC; RMc; David; thebigeasy; Brian Hodes; ed phatyou; Michael D; Joe Dimino; dan b; DanG; marc/sunnyday
(But maybe a couple of those 'originals' changed their handle?)

I started in 1900, but have voted in every election since.

I missed 1900, because I wasn't keeping up with the discussion and they closed the balloting early that week. My fault (not that it's necessarily trained me to keep up with the discussion as much as I should).