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Sunday, June 04, 2006

1978 Ballot

Top new candidates: Roberto Clemente, Hoyt Wilhelm, Bill Mazeroski, and Maury Wills.

Top-ten returnees: George Sisler, José Méndez, Cannonball Dick Redding , Minnie Minoso , Joe Sewell , Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy, and Dobie Moore.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 04, 2006 at 11:06 PM | 125 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. DavidFoss Posted: June 12, 2006 at 03:29 PM (#2061058)
Oops... I forgot to vote this weekend. Tossing a ballot together at work. It won't have the usual formatting. I like the new candidates better than the backlog this week.

1978 Ballot

1. Hoyt Wilhelm (ne) -- Two ERA titles and lots of relief value. The first of the great career relievers and still arguably the best reliever of all-time. I went with Wilhelm at number 1 this week due to the superlatives, but it could have gone the other way.
2. Roberto Clemente (ne) -- Late bloomer. His career numbers look *almost* borderline, but those early years are weighing down his career rates and his impressive peak. Easily better than the backlog.
3. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
4. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
5. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
6. Dick Redding (5) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
7. Ralph Kiner (6) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
8. Gavvy Cravath (7) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
9. Charley Jones (8) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
10. George Sisler (9) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter.
11. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
12. Joe Sewell (11) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
13. Bob Elliott (12) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
14. Billy Pierce (13) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
15. Bob Johnson (15) -- The OF glut is percolating up onto my ballot. Indian Bob hit well with fine OBP's for poor Athletics teams.

16-20. Keller, Rosen, Browning, Chance, Lombardi,
21-25. Fox, Beckley, Welch, Trouppe, DMoore,
26-30. Minoso, Leach, Waddell, Roush, KBoyer,
31-33. Newcombe, TBridges, BWalters
   102. Mike Webber Posted: June 12, 2006 at 03:34 PM (#2061063)
Big career Win Share totals with MVP type seasons at up the middle positions move you to the top of the ballot. MVP type seasons without long careers come next, then long careers in key defensive spots, and finally outfielders and 1b with long careers.

1) ROBERTO CLEMENTE Huge career totals make him easy number one.
2) EDD ROUSH – 300 + Win Shares, 3 MVP type seasons, plus 5 additional All-Star type seasons, excellent defender at a key position.
3) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
4) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
5) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
6) MINNIE MINOSO – Will keep him behind Kiner.
7) HOYT WILHELM Might be more effective if used as a modern reliever, where you rarely come in with men on base, reduces his wild pitch/passed ball problem. Did not read the entire thread, could be that I am placing him much too low.
8) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
9) GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Too many win shares to ignore, but you do have to let some of the air out of his19th century pitching win shares. Even so, his career totals keep him ahead Duffy and the 19th century guys.
10) CARL MAYS – Strong peak, good career value.
11) ROGER BRESNAHAN – best catcher not in, Roger, Elston Howard, and Schang are ahead of Mackey on my list.
12) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
13) HUGH DUFFY – Good combination of career and peak value.
14) GEORGE SISLER – Enough career value and peak value to make the ballot.
15) KEN BOYER –His peak nudges him ahead of Traynor, 6th in games played at 3b when he retired – Mathews, Yost, Robinson, Traynor and Hack.

Disclosures – Jose Mendez and Dick Redding – Hard to rank, and not clearly better than the pitching glut.

Dobie Moore – Looking at his value pattern closely I think it is a big stretch to assume that his career before 25 was likely to have cemented his candidacy. I believe Al Rosen is his best comp, and I see Rosen as no better than the fourth best third baseman on the ballot.

Joe Sewell – I think Chris Cobb is on target with this one, ranks behind Maranville and Long. I was wondering if there is a shortstop with 300 win shares that won’t make the HOM, and the answer is Maranville.

Jake Beckley – good candidate at a deep position, in my top 50.
   103. DL from MN Posted: June 12, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2061078)
I'm seeing a lot in common between Dick Redding and Dwight Gooden. Great fastballs, some tremendous seasons at the beginning of the career with high strikeout rates and exceptional in-game durability, a few effective but not dominating seasons after that and generally ineffective after age 32/33. Gooden would have to end up in the top 5 in a "best fastballs of the 80's discussion" along with Clemens (the modern day Walter Johnson). I ran Doc Gooden through my spreadsheet and he ended up within 3 spots of where I currently have Dick Redding.
   104. Chris Cobb Posted: June 12, 2006 at 04:23 PM (#2061110)
1978 Ballot

I’m just back from a short vacation, so I’m submitted a short and late ballot this year. I’m still working on revising my system to incorporate WARP1 fully; I hope that project will be finished in time for the 1979 election. Clemente and Wilhelm are easy choices for the elect-me spots this year.

1. Roberto Clemente (n/e). Like Ernie Banks, Clemente is generally overrated. Also like Banks, however, Clemente is still great enough to be the top candidate eligible in 1978.
3. Hoyt Wilhelm (n/e). Although relievers as a class are very difficult to assess in comparison to starting pitchers and position players, Wilhelm as an individual is easy to assess. He is a solid HoMer, and I will be surprised if we don’t elect him in 1978. He sustained a very high level of effectiveness for a very long time, and that has great value. Even if he seldom threw enough innings to be one of the top 5 pitchers in the league, he was still comfortably above average in many seasons. Because of travel, I haven’t had time to adjust his numbers fully for leverage. With leverage, he has an argument to be #1 on the ballot. Since he is just as much of a HoMer whether I rank him #1 or #2, I haven’t lost sleep over this ballot placement.
3. Rabbit Maranville (3). Why isn’t he on more ballots?? Deeper study of WARP and fielding brings Maranville towards an elect-me spot. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
4. Dick Redding (4). Slips behind Maranville among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. Recently published data has raised questions about his career value. I haven’t had a chance to review the data, but I think it’s just as well that we will have a few years of shoo-ins coming up so that we can chew over that data before Redding reaches the cusp of election.
5. Jose Mendez (5). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles.
6. Gavvy Cravath (6). I hope the renewed discussion of Cravath will help revive his candidacy. Extraordinary hitter, but weak fielding and weak competition hold him back. My study of top 7 consecutive seasons placed his peak below Keller, Kiner, and Sisler, but he has nearly three top seasons in the AA outside that peak.
7. Herman Long (7). Like Maranville, he tracks upward as I place more weight on infield defense.
8. Ralph Kiner (8). Great peak versus strong competition. A little more peak than Cravath, but quite a bit less prime.
9. Billy Pierce (9). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is about to gain momentum.
10. Dave Bancroft (10). Top beneficiary of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
11. George Sisler. (11). I’ve changed my mind on him again. After another reassessment of first-base defense, I conclude that his peak is underrated because his above-average first-base defense prior to his illness is substantially underrated. With the best position-player peak available, he comes back onto my ballot.
12. Jake Beckley (12). Well, look who else benefits from my reassessment of first-base defense! No great years, but with his defense properly credited, he was steadily an above-average player for a very long time.
13. Tommy Leach. (13). Greater credit for fielding brings him back onto the ballot.
14. Nellie Fox (14). Holds steady. We need to elect some more infielders from the 1950s!
15. Bucky Walters (15). Favre’s period surveys help identify Walters as a player deserving of a little more support. I think that players who peaked during the war years have been getting a little less credit than they deserve, so I bring Walters onto my ballot for the first time.

The next 15
16. Joe Sewell
17. Cupid Childs
18. Rube Waddell
19. Minnie Minoso
20. Charlie Keller
21. Charley Jones
22. Alejandro Oms
23. Ben Taylor
24. Urban Shocker
25. Lave Cross
26. Burleigh Grimes
27. Edd Roush
28. Mickey Welch
29. Bob Elliott
30. Ken Boyer

Returning Consensus Top 10 not on my ballot:

Minnie Minoso: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. He’s just off my ballot at #19. I don’t oppose his election, but I think there are more deserving, overlooked infield candidates.

Joe Sewell: Just off my ballot, at #16, which is his highest ranking ever from me. Slight preference for Bancroft. I no longer oppose his election, as I long did, but I don’t advocate for it right now.

Hugh Duffy: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I think Duffy is being seriously overvalued by the electorate. I can see giving Duffy some extra credit beyond his stats for his team’s outperforming their stats, but that should only go so far. He’s in the 40-50 range in my rankings.

Dobie Moore: an excellent peak, but not high enough or long enough to offset his lack of career value. I somewhat prefer several other contemporary shortstops. Moore is just outside my top 30.

Cupid Childs: Just off my ballot at #17. As with Sewell, I don’t oppose his election, but I’m not advocating for it right now.

Additional note. Sunnyday2 asked me why Long, Maranville, and Bancroft but not Rizzuto? My answer was that I hadn’t studied the 1940s yet in WARP. I have done that now, and it looks to me like the Scooter still falls a bit short, primarily because his durability was not great and his consecutive peak is weak: he never put together a string of great seasons. It looks to me at present like Pesky and Elliott are preferable infield candidates. Pesky or Elliott may push Walters of the ballot 1979, but I haven’t pulled the trigger on that change.
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2006 at 05:59 PM (#2061211)
3. Rabbit Maranville (3).

I'm going to preempt everyone by awarding the Best Friend of Luis Aparicio to Chris now. ;-)

BTW, 41 ballots tallied so far (I knew I forgot something this morning to do).

Still missing ballots from: Kelly in SD, Trevor P., Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Tiboreau, Michael Bass, Max Parkinson, jimd, KJOK, the Commish, and James Newburg.

Gadfly has been removed from the list since he hasn't participated for at least five elections now.

All ballots need to be in by 8 PM EST, but I can be a liberal with the deadline this week if need be. Just let me know in advance if you will have a problem being on time if you can.
   106. OCF Posted: June 12, 2006 at 06:23 PM (#2061232)
Not so fast with the preemption, John. This is Chris from the 1975 results thread. He's quoting and responding to me.

Chris Cobb: -12 (his newfound fondness for long-career glove men has its effect - what's he going to say about Aparicio?)

Well, at least my low-key campaign is having some effect :-)

As to Aparicio, I think I'm going to say that he had a long career, but he wasn't good enough with the glove: neither WARP nor WS sees him as being in Long's or Maranville's league with the leather, and his offensive advantage over Maranville is pretty slim, probably non-existent if you measured Maranville over a portion of his career equal to Aparicio's.
   107. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2006 at 06:27 PM (#2061240)
That does ring a bell now, OCF.

I just looked at Aparicio's fielding grade in the Win Shares book. I was surprised to see him with only a B.
   108. rawagman Posted: June 12, 2006 at 06:36 PM (#2061245)
Hope Kelly wasn't too upset by the Beckley defenders.

He seemed quite put out.
If anyone has the man's email, maybe he could be contacted.
   109. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 12, 2006 at 06:41 PM (#2061255)
Deeper study of WARP and fielding brings Maranville towards an elect-me spot.
I don't tend to quibble with Chris too often because he's MUCH smarter and more prepared than I am. But I'm curious now that this has been pointed out. If WARP gives tons o' credit for fielding below the level of average but above replacement, then Maranville's going to look very attractive as a long career fielder guy. But that's assuming that a AA shortstop is a reasonable bar for replacement an not an MLB average level SS.

This is a large conceptual question that is ballot-making or breaking, not a nit or a snarky reponse to Chris's ballot, so I'm interested for Chris to address it, if he's willing. I've often come down on the other side of the fence, while JimD, for instance, has often reminded us that the lower replacement levels are a construction that allows Davenport's system to fairly weigh the fielding contribution of positions across the defensive spectrum.

Chris what's your position on this question, 'specially as it influences your vote for Maranville?

I just looked at Aparicio's fielding grade in the Win Shares book. I was surprised to see him with only a B.
He's either Vizquel v. 1.0 or Concepcion v. 1.0. You make the call.
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2006 at 06:47 PM (#2061264)
Hope Kelly wasn't too upset by the Beckley defenders.

He seemed quite put out.
If anyone has the man's email, maybe he could be contacted.

He's usually later than earlier when it comes to posting a ballot, but I'll check with him anyway.
   111. sunnyday2 Posted: June 12, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#2061286)
Chris said that he had only revised his ratings of SS up to a certain point, I think the 1930s. So whatever it is that is benefitting Maranville, the insights haven't yet been applied to, say, Rizzuto or other leather experts between the Rabbit and the Louie. If Marty Marion ends up in Chris' top 5, then you'll probably see the new insight become a hypothesis that didn't pan out. If Aparicio ends up top 5, ditto. Chris ain't stupid.
   112. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: June 12, 2006 at 07:11 PM (#2061291)
Chris ain't stupid.

I know it. And if he's telling me that Rabbit Maranville is #3 on this ballot, I really want to listen more extensively to his reasoning to see what I'm missing!!!!
   113. TomH Posted: June 12, 2006 at 07:56 PM (#2061330)
Dave Bancroft ...... he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career.
as hitters: Sewell leads in EqA, 280 to 262. That's a BIG edge.
as fielders: Sewell leads in FRAA, 121 to 118, but he has 5 yrs at 3B.
career length: Bancroft leads by 10 games, altho with WWI credit it's a few more, but not a whole lot.
league strength? Sewell centered AL 1926, Bancroft NL 1922.

If we use Win Shares instead of WAARP, Sewell has a higher career total, and higher WS per year.

I'm very impressed by Chris's research, but I'd conclude much differently: that Bancroft was a worse ballplayer than Sewell with a slightly shorter career.
   114. sunnyday2 Posted: June 12, 2006 at 08:57 PM (#2061395)
I actually have Sewell ahead of Bancroft, too, but those 5 years at 3B are killers. If Sewell had been a regular SS for 13 years with those numbers, he would be on my ballot.
   115. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 12, 2006 at 09:03 PM (#2061407)
I'll have my ballot up shortly, but after skimming the thread, I have to say I am very disappointed in ALL of you.

When his ballot was questioned, nobody thought to ask, "Mother of mercy, is this the end of Rico?"

It breaks my heart to see a beautiful setup like that just wither on the vine.
   116. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2006 at 09:23 PM (#2061428)
When his ballot was questioned, nobody thought to ask, "Mother of mercy, is this the end of Rico?"

I actually have referenced "Little Ceasar" here before, so I didn't want to repeat myself, Devin. ;-)
   117. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 12, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2061454)
Caught up on the relief pitchers thread today, and wow. Actually, good thing I was avoiding it, because experience tells me I would have lit into Backlasher on Treder’s behalf, which only would have made the situation worse. (Not so much because I agree more with him, but because I dislike Backlasher’s rhetorical techniques.) Anyway, on to my ballot, with a new slogan: Less of a train wreck than the U.S. Soccer team! I kid cause I love.

Clemente and Wilhelm make my PHoM this year.

1. Roberto Clemente (new) Although it’s been said many times, many ways…not as good as his reputation, but still pretty damn good. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Hoyt Wilhelm (new) To be honest, I’m not entirely sure where I stand yet on the whole reliever valuation issue. I’m not in the “No relievers in the HoM” camp, but I may have a hard time going beyond the “Big Three”. Still, Wilhelm has a strong enough case that it doesn’t really matter. The ERA+ may be overstated, but the Win Shares are likely understated (due to the sloppy leverage metric). This is a bit above where I had Drysdale, Bunning and Koufax, but I’m comfortable with that. Makes my PHoM this year.

3. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. We're definitely short on third basemen, and I think he's the best available candidate. Made my PHoM in 1940.

4. Bill Monroe (3) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Even though we don't have reliable numbers for him, he shouldn't be overlooked. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Quincy Trouppe (4) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

6. Dick Redding (5) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in. For now, Daisy-Cutter Dick is ahead because I find his career argument stronger than Mendez' peak one. Made my PHoM in 1973.

7. Joe Sewell (6) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. The comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. Bancroft may be underrated, but Sewell’s batting advantage is enough to keep him ahead for me. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Dobie Moore (7) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much, but they do drop him back behind Sewell. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

9. Jose Mendez (11) The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. I still lean towards Redding’s career, but it’s closer. Made my PHoM in 1975.

10. Minnie Minoso (9) I think he's a bit ahead of Medwick & Johnson among corner OF, but it's very hard to be sure. Gets a bit of an era boost – even though the AL was the weaker league, overall I think the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Made my PHoM in 1971

11. George Van Haltren (10) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

12. Gavvy Cravath (12) You know, I did have Willard Brown pretty high on my ballot. With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him. Like Minoso, has the underrepresented era/weak league factors to consider.

13. Cupid Childs (13) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932

14. Rube Waddell (14) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers.

(14A Joe Gordon, 14B Joe Medwick)
15. Bob Johnson (17) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close. I agree that Minoso might be just a touch better (and Minnie’s era is less represented), but they’re very close.

16. Billy Pierce (15) There really isn’t much separating him from Bunning when you look at the totality, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive.
17. Ken Boyer (16) Haven’t updated my WARP numbers for everyone else, so I’m worried about overrating him. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.
18. Bus Clarkson (18) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
19. Alejandro Oms (19) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
(19A Richie Ashburn, 19B Biz Mackey)
20. Jake Beckley. (20) There is a TON of career value, but his normal season is just too average to give him that much credit. Similar to Bell.
(20A Clark Griffith)
21. Charlie Keller (21) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF.
(21A Cool Papa Bell, 21B Max Carey)
22. Phil Rizzuto (22) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, which is less certain.
23. Ben Taylor (23) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
(23A Sam Thompson, 23B Rube Foster)
24. Bob Elliott (24) Right now, appears a little better than Traynor and a little worse than Clarkson and Boyer. I’m a 3B fan, but I don’t know that he’s the guy to support.
25. Edd Roush (25) Maybe he was a great player in Oakland City, but it was his choice to be there, so tough luck.
26. Vern Stephens (26) Could be higher, but I am sure he’s behind Rizzuto.
(26A Hughie Jennings)
27. George Sisler (27) Might be underrated, but I just don't like the dropoff.
28. Nellie Fox (28) Just can't have him ahead of Doerr & Gordon. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
29. Bucky Walters (29) A strong peak, but the wartime factor is just too strong for a marginal case like this.
30. Ralph Kiner (30) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
31. Roger Bresnahan
32. Charley Jones
33. Dave Bancroft
34. Vic Willis
35. Pie Traynor
36. Bobby Veach
37. Burleigh Grimes
38. Elston Howard
39. Spottswood Poles
40. Bill Byrd

56. Hugh Duffy. The first time I’ve ever had a top-10 returnee anywhere near this low. I have him very close to Mike Griffin – played a little longer, had a better peak, but they’re almost identical hitters and Griffin was clearly a better fielder. I just don’t see him at all.
   118. jimd Posted: June 12, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#2061464)
Ballot for 1978

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and unsupported Peak doesn't get too far in my system.

1) R. CLEMENTE -- Overrated by history but still the best player on this thin ballot. .

2) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

3) H. WILHELM -- I need to resolve my RP evaluation issues before giving him a vote-to-elect. Waived twice, in 1957 and 1958, before regaining stardom. On and off prime 1952-54; 1959-65. 1st-team MLB All-star (SP!) in 1959. Star RP in 1964. Probably a star RP 1952, 1954, 1965. At least HM in 1953, 1961, 1964.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

5) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

8) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

9) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

10) G. SISLER -- Overrated but still good. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1917, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922; WARP adds 1916 and 1918.

11) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929.

12) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

13) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886.

14) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

15) E. HOWARD -- Very different from Mackey. Prime 1961-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

16) D. REDDING -- Made my ballot earlier, but slips back off.

17) D. DEAN -- He's almost ballot-worthy. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

18) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

19) J. BECKLEY -- Not quite. Long low prime but never close to the best player in the league. Prime 1890-1904. Best 1b-man 1900. WARP adds 1894, 1901; WS adds 1893. HM in 1890, 1896, 1899, 1904.

20) R. KINER -- If he was the best LF during those years, he'd be high on the ballot. Prime 1947-54. Star seasons include 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, 1951. HM in 1952, 1953, 1954.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Dizzy Trout, Joe Tinker,
23-24) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
25-26) Billy Pierce, Nellie Fox,
27-28) Rube Waddell, Harry Hooper,
29-30) Tommy Leach, Mickey Welch,
   119. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: June 12, 2006 at 10:02 PM (#2061484)
Not a lot of time this week. Only going to list the top 20.

1. Roberto Clemente RF (n/e) - Probably overrated by history due to his early death, but a great player nonetheless.
2. Jake Beckley 1B (2) - A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.
3. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.
4. Luke Easter 1B (5) - I realize there is a lot of projecting going on here, but I think this is fair, as those ahead of him could reasonably be ranked ahead of Easter even with the extensive projections. I see him as extremely similar to Cravath, and he really did mash from 1937-54.
5. Billy Pierce SP (6) - What's not to like. He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. I could see Mike Mussina ending up like Pierce historically. He's first among the eligibles in RSAR (using DERA and Translated IP). And that's using a fairly high replacement level, of .404 WPct.
6. Ralph Kiner LF (7) - Was Harmon Killebrew a Hall of Famer through 1968? Reggie through 1978? How about Albert Belle? He should be. All are comparable to Kiner, the Albert Belle of the late 1940s and early 1950s. I'm not normally a peak guy, but his peak is astronomical. I'm not convinced his D was as bad as some say either. His defensive WS numbers aren't terrible.
7. Charley Jones LF (8) - The Albert Belle/Ralph Kiner of the early NL - can you tell I like this type of player?
8. Hoyt Wilhelm RP (n/e) - Relief pitchers are very tough to compare with starters, but I think he's right in the ballpark with Pierce and Bridges, and a little bit ahead of Grimes.
9. Elston Howard C (10) - I wouldn't have expected him to be this high. One of the things I love about working on this is that you get to take a look at a guy like Howard and realize he was a much better player than you ever realized. Schang, Dickey, Berra, Howard, Munson, Posada. Everyone talks about CF in Yankee Stadium, but behind the plate has a pretty solid history there too.
10. Tommy Bridges SP (11) - Unspectacular peak, but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.
11. Nellie Fox 2B (12) - Very good peak. Great defense. Relatively long career at a key defensive position. I'm a big fan of this kind of player.
12. Burleigh Grimes SP (18) - Like Walters, faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.
13. Dave Bancroft SS (13) - Inexplicably dropped off my consideration set. Upon further review, very similar to Rizzuto and Fox. I like him better than Sewell career wise. While Sewell had the better peak, Bancroft's is nothing to sneeze at, 4 WARP1's 9.4+, with a high of 11.5 in 1921, as the Giants won it all.
14. Tommy Leach 3B/CF (14) - It is so easy to underrate the guys that do everything well and nothing spectacularly.
15. George Van Haltren CF (9) - He could rank anywhere from 2 to 19, very tough to evaluate.

Honorable Mention:

16. Joe Sewell SS/3B (15) - Very glad he wasn't rushed in. However, after comparing him to Bancroft and Rizzuto, I realize I've been underrating him. Major jump this week.
17. Minnie Minoso LF (16) - Still not sure what to make of his extra credit. I can't see him being lower than this. Career track somewhat similar to Will Clark. Great player from the start of his career, very good player for the rest, and career ends rather early. Those guys tend to be underrated.
18. Wally Schang C (17) - Looking over WARP for catchers with Howard coming on the ballot, he's way ahead of everyone else that's eligible. I didn't realize that. I wonder if one of the recalcs bumped him.
19. Phil Rizzuto SS (19) - War credit has him right about 300 WS and 95 WARP, great defensive SS and hurt by his park enormously. After a deeper look that included comparing Rizzuto to other shortstops with their age 25-27 seasons missing, I think Bancroft and Sewell deserve to rank ahead of the Scooter.
20. Dobie Moore SS (20) - Great peak, short career, even with military team credit. Mike Webber's list that showed the age 21-24 record of players with similar performance from age 25-31 as Moore doesn't convince me that he should get a lot of credit for those years, but I do think he should get credit for about 50 or so WS for those years.
   120. KJOK Posted: June 12, 2006 at 10:43 PM (#2061524)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROBERTO CLEMENTE, RF. 34 POW, 126 WARP1, 247 RCAP, .633 OWP, 10,212 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Can’t find anyone to put ahead of him.

2. HOYT WILHELM, RP.37 POW, 98 WARP1, 282 RSAA, 217 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 146 ERA+ in 2,254 innings. Better career numbers than Koufax.

3. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

4. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

5. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

6. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

9. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

10. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

11. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

12. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking.

13. BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, , 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

14. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

15. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.



BILL MAZEROSKI, 2B. 34 POW, 92 WARP1, -7 RCAP & .400 OWP in 8,379 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Likely best defensive 2Bman ever, but hesitant to put on ballot with so much of value dependent on defensive measures.


GEORGE SISLER, 1B. 27 POW, 93 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .611 OWP in 9,013 PAs. Def: FAIR. Only ranks about 5th at his position over 30 year period. Some really great seasons, but not enough of them.

JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, , 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still ahead of him, such as Doerr, Childs, & Gordon.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.
   121. OCF Posted: June 12, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2061567)
A half hour left and we're still missing 7 of the 1976-1978 voters. Is everyone on vacation or something?

(James Newburg, Kelly in SD, Ken Fischer, Max Parkinson, Michael Bass, Tiboreau, Trevor P)
   122. jimd Posted: June 12, 2006 at 11:34 PM (#2061568)
For completeness sake...

1) R. CLEMENTE -- Overrated by popular mythology but still the best player on this thin ballot. Prime 1960-71. 1st-team MLB All-Star 1967. Other star seasons include 1961, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Honorable Mention in 1962.
   123. Max Parkinson Posted: June 12, 2006 at 11:40 PM (#2061572)
1978 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are…..that’s right, Clemente and Wilhelm.)

1. Roberto Clemente

Another of the one-and-done’s.

2. Dick Redding

One of the 3 MP HoM but not HoM pitchers in my consideration list (Redding, Mendez and Waddell), and I’m convinced that he had the best career of all of them.

3. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

4. Jose Mendez

I’ve reconsidered him – he had been in the twenties before. A truly great peak pitcher.

5. George Sisler

George’s case was made in from ’17 to ‘22 – anything he did afterwards adds or subtracts little. Alas, dear George (and yest), I fear it may be a few more years.

6. Hoyt Wilhelm

Best Reliever Ever (we haven’t heard of Mariano yet).

7. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

8. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

9. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

10. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

11. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

12. Joe Sewell
13. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

14. (N)Ed Williamson
15. Ben Taylor

He’d slide nicely in the 1B void.

16-20. Keller, Minoso, Burns, Veach, Pierce
21-25. Walters, Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy
26-30. B. Johnson, Trouppe, Cuyler, Childs, Youngs
31-35. Klein, Monroe, Tiernan, Kiner, Hooper
36-40. F. Jones, Traynor, Shocker, Boyer, Bradley
41-45. Roush, Cicotte, Howard, Leach, Chance
46-50. Griffin, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang, Beckley

Previous Top 10s:
Beckley is 50.
   124. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#2061574)
Kelly in SD

Kelly is taking a break for the next few weeks because of lack of time.
   125. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 13, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2061592)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
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