I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Willie Mays-CF (n/e): My first favorite player. Though I only saw him at the tail end of his career ('73), I have seen his stats. Inner-circle, baby! Best ML center fielder for 1954, close in 1955, 1958, 1959, 1960, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, and 1966. Best NL center fielder for 1955, 1957, 1961, and 1971.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (3): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906 and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (4): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.          

The most dominating backlogger 99.9% of the time for each election.

4) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (5): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

5) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (6): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

6) Pie Traynor-3B (7): Best white third baseman of his time (though Beckwith was better). Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

7) Alejandro Oms-CF (8): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

8) Minnie Minoso-LF/3B (9): Probably the best ML left fielder of the fifties, though only because Teddy Ballgame was in Korea and Stan the Man played considerably at other positions. Best ML left fielder for 1956 and 1959. Best AL of 1953.

9) Burleigh Grimes-P (10): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

10) Mickey Welch-P (11): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

11) Bucky Walters-P (12): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

12) George Sisler-1B (13): Great player at his peak, but unquestionably a mediocre (at best) player after 1922, which didn't add much to his overall value. Best AL first baseman for 1916 and 1922. Best ML first baseman for 1917, 1919, and 1920 (very close in 1916 and 1922).</b>

13) Vic Willis-P (14): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

14) Dobie Moore-SS (15): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

15) Billy Nash-3B (n/e): An oldie but a goody of mine returns! Possibly the best defensive third baseman of the 19th century (and not too bad offensively). Great arm and a master of handling bunts. Captain for the Beaneaters for two seasons (1891-1892) and the highest paid player on the team after the Players' League folded. He was never the same after a beaning in 1896 (he developed vertigo).  Best ML third baseman for 1888, 1892, and 1893. Best NL third baseman for 1887 and 1889. Best PL third baseman for 1890.         

Kiner, Redding, Mendez, Sewell, and Beckley all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Here's Rick A.'s ballot...

John,

I'll be on vacation next week. Could you please move my ballot over to the ballot thread when it shows up?

Thanks

PHOM
Willie Mays
Jim Bunning

1. Willie Mays – I’ve got him as better than Mantle. And I’m a Yankees fan. Elected PHOM in 1979
2. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
6. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
7. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
8. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
9. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11. Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
12. Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
13. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
14. Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.
15. Edd Roush – Forgot to give him some credit for his holdouts. I’m giving credit to C. Jones blacklist years and plan to give credit for strikes, so I should give credit for holdouts. Elected PHOM in 1975.

Requierd Disclosures
Sisler and Minoso Just miss my ballot
Sewell Not as good as Gordon, Doerr, Doyle, Monroe, Fox, Rizzuto, or Stephens among MI
Beckley No peak

New Candidates
Luis Aparicio Like Bancroft, Maranville, Tinker and Long better.
Frank Howard Ranked in the 30's. Not quite Kiner or Johnson.

Off the ballot
16-20 Bresnahan,Oms,Minoso,Sisler,Cravath
21-25 Monroe,Waddell,EHoward,CMays,Fox
26-30 Johnson,Elliott,FHoward,Trouppe,McGraw
31-35 WCooper,Doyle,Leach,Boyer,Stephens
36-40 FJones,Matlock,HWilson,Keller,Rizzuto
41-45 Poles,HSmith,Newcombe,Tiernan,Winters
46-50 Rosen,Bond,Schang,ACooper,Van Haltren

...and now Andrew Siegel's:

I'm off to Maine for 10 days. John, please transfer this to the ballot thread. Thanks.

(1) Mays (new)--Moves ahead of Mantle, but only with the aid of league strength adjustments.
(2)Keller (3rd)--One notch better for his prime than guys like Moore, Sisler, Kiner, and Berger.
(3) Roush (4th)--Solid CF who always ranked in the top 10 in his league offensively. Solid prime; solid career.
(4) Mendez (5th)--Looks like Bob Lemon, or perhaps Rube Waddell with a brain and a bat.
(5) Leach (6th)--Lots of All-Star seasons by every metric.
(6) Cravath (8th)--My gradual reconsideration of all old candidates shows that I dropped the ball with him. Great--though scattered prime--and 300-plus WS.
(7) Minoso (7th)--Has the prime; negro league credit gives him the career. Ranks very highly among 1950s position players. His prime close enough to Clemente's to raise eyebrows.
(8) Sisler (9th)--If you look at how an informed fan would have ranked him among all the players in the majors at the end of his good years, those numbers are VERY high; peak is quite good when short seasons and league quality are taken into account.
(9) Sewell (10th)--Doprs a bit when I do season to season comparisons to sisler but still fully qualified.
(10) Duffy (11th)--This week only giving him partial extra credit for all the excess offensive WS.
(11) Van Haltren (12th)--Very good for a very long time, but lots of good 1890s OF's.
(12) Pierce (13th)--Ranks strongly among 1950s ptichers.
(13) Trouppe (14th)--Best catcher on ballot.
(14) Oms (15th)--Fully qualified but era and position are well-represented.
(15) Bob Elliot (new/18th)-- Noses Bob Johnson for ballot spot.

Redding's numbers don't impress me; I run hot and cold on Beckley but was fairly peruaded by Kelly's lists (he's in the 20's for me right now); Kiner only had 4 years that scream superstar--that's just not enough.

Frank Howard is off ballot but hard to place--he might be near Kiner (which would place him in the 20's); he might be near Wally Berger (in the 30's); he might be near Colavito/ Fournier/Tiernan (40's or 50's) or he might be near Klein and Hack Wilson (somewhere around 70). I'm working on it.

Mays an N/B, with a lot to spare. Howard (1971 Senators, a vintage LOST FRANCHISE – my first year in US) borderline, very slightly better than Kiner, a tad better than Wilson, not quite as good as Charley Jones or Browning. Aparicio lifetime OPS+ of 82 – no thanks as Maranville’s off my consideration set (pity, he was a 1972 Red Sox, the first year I followed them closely.) Callison’s Howard minus 28 points of OPS+ (and maybe 150 pounds?). Alou not as good as Callison, though for slightly longer. Pappas less good than 20-30 pitchers we’ve ignored (11ERA+ points short of Drysdale.)

1. (N/A) Willie Mays. In my view, better than Mickey or Hank. TB+BB/PA .602, TB+BB/Outs .934, not overwhelming but mostly in a pitchers’ era. Plus he was an awesome fielder. Should also get Korean war credit, which would make him very close indeed to Hank in HR, and far ahead of Mickey.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2) Jake Beckley. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

5. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3-4-4-3-3-5-5-3-4-4-5-6-4-4-3-3-4-3-5-3-3-4-3-
3-4-3-3-5-4-4-4-5-6-4-4-4-6) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too. Undervalued by sabermetricians.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

13. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13-14) Rube Waddell Given Joss’s new elevation, he’d dropped a bit too far at 32. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, although lots of UER.

14. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. Best season 1944, however.

15. (N/A) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

17. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

18. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

23. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays
24. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren. Put him above Suttles – he’s better, so will be on ballot in weak years.
25. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
26. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
27. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
28. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
29. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
30. Billy Pierce.
31. Sal Maglie.
32. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
33. (N/A) Heinie Manush
34. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
35. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
36. Bob Elliott
37. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
38. (N/A) Dick Lundy
39. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
40. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
41. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
42. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Deacon McGuire
45. Jack Quinn
46. Tony Mullane
47. Pye Traynor
48. Jim McCormick
49. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
50. Joe Judge
51. Edd Roush
52. Spotswood Poles.
53. Larry Doyle
54. Curt Simmons
55. Roger Bresnahan.
56. Wayte Hoyt.
57. Harry Hooper.
58. Gil Hodges
59. Jules Thomas.
60. Wilbur Cooper
61. Bruce Petway.
62. Jack Clements
63. Bill Monroe
64. Jose Mendez
65. Herb Pennock
66. Chief Bender
67. Ed Konetchy
68. Jesse Tannehill
69. Bobby Veach
70. Lave Cross
71. Tommy Leach.
72. Tom York

Milt Pappas’s ballot

1. Milt Pappas
2.Willie Mays



my
1979 ballot

Mays and Aparicio make my PHOM

1.Willie Mays (makes my personal HoM this year)
2. George Sisler I believe everyone knows my view on him by now (made my personal HoM in 1936)
3. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts moved up when I relized I like him better then Banks and Banks beat Traynor (made my personal HoM in 1939)
4. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
7. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
13. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
14. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
15. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
16. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
17. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
18. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
19. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
20.Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
21. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
22. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
23. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
24. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (makes my personal HoM this year)
25. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
26. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
27. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
28. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
31. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Frank Howard need 1 or 2 to more seasons

1. Mays
2-15 (.....)

whaddaya mean, that isn't a valid ballot? Geeezz, OK, I'll go back and work on it some more.

1979 ballot. The candidacy of Howard forces me to be more cautious about all corner outfielders - I'm pulling Kiner and Minoso down to where I'm comfortable putting Howard.

1. Willie Mays (new)
2. Billy Pierce (5, 1, 1, 2, 2) Underappreciated by both the HoF and (so far) us.
3. Larry Doyle (6, 4, 3, 5, 5) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
4. José Méndez (3, 2, 4, 6, 6) Could easily be as good as Koufax.
5. Quincy Trouppe (7, 5, 5, 7, 7) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
6. George Van Haltren (8, 6, 6, 8, 8) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
7. Bucky Walters (9, 8, 7, 9, 9) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
8. Joe Sewell (11, 10, 8, 10, 10) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
9. Ralph Kiner (4, 3, 2, 4, 4) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
10. Frank Howard (new) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
11. Orestes Miñoso (10, 9, 10, 12, 12) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
12. Ken Boyer (-, 15, 14, 16, 16) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
13. Bob Elliott (15, 14, 12, 14, 14) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
14. Jake Beckley (14, 13, 11, 13, 13) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
15. Tommy Bridges (23, 22, 13, 15, 15) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
16. Dick Redding (13, 12, 9, 11, 11) There seems to be more uncertainty around him lately.
17. Luis Aparicio (new) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
18. Hugh Duffy (16, 16, 15, 17, 17) Nothing new to say after all these years.
19. Rabbit Maranville (-----) The appearance of Aparacio on the ballot casts the spotlight in his direction, and I fix an error in my calculations.
20. Mickey Vernon (17, 17, 16, 18, 18) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
21. Nellie Fox (19, 19, 18, 19, 19) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
22. Phil Rizzuto (20, 20, 19, 20, 20) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
23. Cupid Childs (21, 20, 20, 21, 21) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
24. Edd Roush (24, 24, 22, 22, 22) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
25. George Sisler (25, 25, 23, 23, 23) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time.
26. Vern Stephens (26, 26, 24, 24, 24)
27. Dobie Moore (27, 27, 25, 25, 25) Short career, high peak.
28. Bob Johnson (28, 28, 26, 26, 26)
29. Rocky Colavito (29, 29, 27, 27, 27) I like Colavito's actual major league career a hair better than Johnson's, including a better peak. Johnson stays ahead of Colavito in recognition of his minor league value.
30. Frank Chance (30, 30, 28, 28, 28)

Geez! There is only one hour left in teh day and finally the ballot thread is up! Of course I am in Hong Kong in stead of New York but what I don't understand is why the rest of you can't simply adjust!

1979 ballot

Mays and Rixey make my PHOM

1. Willie Mays (x, PHOM) - This is the largest gap between #'s 1 and 2 that we have had and it may be the largest gap we will ever have, unless Bonds comes due in a weak year. One of the five best players ever and most likely the best all around player ever, he or Wagner. I guess that one coudl say that Mantle was slightly better as his peak was higher, but it isnt' like Willie's peak wasn't super as well.

2. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) - If you give him war credit and one season of MiL credit he was an MVP caliber player for about 8 years. No one else on the board (except for Mays, obviously) can say that.

3. Cupid Childs (4, PHOM) - Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion. Very nice peak and a decent career length for a MIer of his era.

4. Hugh Duffy (5, PHOM) - Best of the 1890's CF trio based on his superior peak. Great fielder and I give him credit for helping his teams overachieve their pythags a la Win Shares.

5. Dick Redding (6, PHOM) - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era behind only Joe Williams and that ain't bad. The new numbers aren't going to affect his rating too much as they only encompass his decline. Great three year peak.

6. Ralph Kiner (7, PHOM) - Seven consecutive HR titles is impressive no matter hwo you slice it. Very nice peak, only slightly behind Keller. More power than King Kong (odd sentence right there) but less OBP and an inferior defender.

7. Dobie Moore (8, PHOM) - New numbers show his peak to be a little lower than perviously thought. Still he is Ernie Banks without the 1B years, which is still a HOMer in my book. No longer the Black Jennings, however.

8. Bucky Walters (9, PHOM) - Very nice peak and he coudl hit a little. We are short a few War Era pitchers and Bucky is the best of the lot.

9. Pete Browning (10, PHOM) - He would be up with Kiner and Keller if I didn't have doubts abou tthe quality of the 1880's AA. Still a very fine hitter, probalby the best on the board who didn't go by the name 'Say Hey Kid'.

10. Quincey Trouppe (11) - I think we elected the wrong NeL catcher as I much prefer Trouppe to Mackey. Better hitter and a much better player at his best than Biz was.

11. Dizzy Dean (12) - Koufax lite, slightly lower peak, less outside the peak, awful hitter (just like Sandy). Still a magnificent pitcher when he was at his best.

12. Rube Waddell (13) - New UER numbers show that while his totals were still high that weren't that high for his era, roughly the same as those of Addie Joss. Makes his 134 ERA+ look much more impressive.

13. Elston Howard (14) - Very similar to Trouppe. Both lost MLB time for various reasons, both were superb hitting catchers and both played significant time at other positions. I have Trouppe slightly higher because he played 3B whereas Howard played OF and I don't have it in me to give Howard credit for sitting on the bench for the Yankees.

14. Ken Boyer (15) - If we are to avoid a dearth of 3B in the HOM we will need to look at guys liek Boyer, Rosen,a nd Elliot. I like Boyer the best of the lot, great defender who could hit as well.

15. Gavvy Cravath (16) - The first time I have ever voted for him, after all of these years Gadfly would be proud. After looking at his numbers I am starting to trust the MLE's a little more, Very nice peak, monster hitter.

Required
16. Sisler - He may get elected this year and he probably desrves. Just off my ballot but in the top ten of my PHOM waiting list.
17. Mendez - Not too sure how he was better than Waddell, who pitched roughly the same amount if innings (if I am correct) had a high peak and had an ERA+ about 15 points better. Still, Mendez is probably a deserving HOMer.
33. Minnie Minoso - Very good players, yes, but I dont' know how he seperates himself from the OFglut. If his NeL and MiL numbers had been as good as I thought they would be when I started teh project, I woudl have him higher. As it stands, however, I am not convinced he is a HOMer.
37. Sewell - I don't see anything special about him. NOt much peak or career or even along prime. Best 20's SS of the AL? Sure, but he played a lot of 3b as well as may not havebeen as good as contemporiaries Bancroft, Moore, or Lundy. Overrated by the group.
xx. Beckley - Not ranked as i only rank my top 60 and he isn't too close. He will immediately become teh worst player we have elected since I joined teh project in 1935 adn it wouldnt' be too close. Never an MVP type player, nver in the top 10 in his league in WS. How that makes him one of the 225 best ever is way beyond me. Even if his defense is underrated you would have to think he was better than Ozzie Smith with the glove for him to have a few MVP caliber seasons.

New

25. Frank Howard - I see him a Joey Medwick lite. Nice three year peak, decent prime, ok career, but lower than Ducky on all three accounts. Still players with his 3 year peak dont' grow in trees, future ballot material when he start hitting the backlog hard in the elect 3 and 4 years.

Callison and Aparicio were good players who aren't good enough to enter into my consideration set. Aparicio may be the worst HOF choice since WWII.

Shaddup, Mark! ;-)

1979 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or RCAP adjusted for defense and timeline. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes (or value above average) higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

Little Louis makes my top 50. A dead ringer for the Rabbit.

Frank Howard falls short of Keller and Kiner and Browning. Somewhere in the realm of Roger Maris, Hack Wilson, Chuck Klein….

Only significant movement on this week’s ballot is Bob Johnson gaining a few spots as I gave him a smidge of Minor League credit.

1- Willie Mays
Say….hey, there is an indescribably huge yawning chasm between here and #2.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(vain attempt to depict a big gap…..)
.
.
.
.
.
.
2- Bucky Walters (3) [21]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too. His perceived great peak in ‘39-‘40 is aided by the Reds’ gold glove defense.
3- Joe Sewell (4) [7]
Great fielder, very good bat for a shortstop.
4- Jake Beckley (5) [8]
Very fine career, quite understated by Win Shares.
5- John McGraw (6) [33]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen and especially 1890s infielders. Also a brilliant tactician.
6- Ken Boyer (7) [12]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader.. Could’ve used another productive year or two. League strength puts him above Elliot.
7- George Van Haltren (8) [17]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
8- Billy Pierce (9) [11]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but no spiked peak. Some bonus value out of the bullpen.
9- Bob Johnson (13) [29]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists. I added one year of minor league credit this ballot.
10- Minnie Minoso (10) [6]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
11- Cupid Childs (11) [13]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him.
12- Frank Chance (12) [56]
Every ballot I howl at the moon (actually I do back-up vocals for KJOK).
13- Ralph Kiner (14) [4]
As a kid I listened to Kiner’s Korner, a wrap-up after Mets games. Never really knew who he was.
14- Charlie Keller (15) [30]
Monster bat that Pete Browning’s supporters ought to fall in love with! Compares well with Sisler; just not as famous.
15- George Sisler (off) [3]
Sisler fans can rejoice at his welcome back to my ballot.
-

Top 10 disclosures: D Redding #16, J Mendez #20, Duffy around #50

A HoF vote for Cannonball would have dotted the “i”s on his resume.

I’d feel better about Mendez if the 1952 Courier poll had ranked him higher. I completely understand those peaksters who have Mendez or Dobie Moore at #1.

Hugh Duffy was not a great hitter, nor even a very good one. He had one great year, and a bunch of decent ones. He will never make my ballot unless we find consensus that his defense was fabulous.

1979 Ballot

1) Willie Mays - My all-time rankings go Ruth, Williams, Mays. Mays is the best RH hitter ever.
2) Bob Johnson - great RH bat. From his era the right handed hitters in the HoM are Gibson, Foxx, DiMaggio, Mule Suttles, Martin Dihigo, Medwick, Willard Brown, Doerr, Gordon and Willie Wells. I'd take Bob Johnson over Medwick and Brown.
3) Billy Pierce - compares well to Bunning, Drysdale & Ford and they're all in
4) Ken Boyer - Using a position scarcity bonus to move him up a slot. Great RH bat, he also had a tremendous glove. 7 time all-star, one MVP. 3B is a glove position because you have to wear the glove on your left hand.
5) Ralph Kiner - another great righthanded bat, dropped down a slot because there are a lot of inducted and available outfield sluggers.
6) Charlie Keller - What's a lefthanded hitter doing on my ballot? He held his own in the field.
7) Bob Elliott - Led MLB in RBIs during the 1940s. Is the platoon advantage the difference between Elliott and Hack?
8) Tommy Bridges - Terrific war era pitcher, makes it this high without war credit.
9) Dutch Leonard - Bridges has more peak value but the career value is similar.
10) Quincy Trouppe - Star of the Mexican leagues, both C and 3B are underrepresented and he could hit better than Mackey.
11) Jake Beckley - Reevaluation of 1B defense moves him up the ballot. Played 2376 games at 1B when fielding gloves resembled today's batting gloves.
12) Minnie Minoso - Another righthanded bat and a good all-around player.
13) Frank Howard - debuts a little conservatively, I agree there isn't a whole lot between Howard and Kiner. It looks like Kiner did play better defense. Another big righthanded bat.
14) Virgil Trucks - my 3rd war era pitcher on the ballot, Trucks needs the war credit to get here.
15) Joe Sewell - Lefthanded contact hitter, but good SS and played some 3B also.
16) Dick Bartell - Very good hitter, very good fielder. I like him a lot better than Nellie Fox or his peer Phil Rizzuto. Does Bartell have a discussion thread? He should, he batted righthanded.
17) Chuck Klein - No need to have a lefthander clutter up the ballot
18) Gavy Cravath - Pure anti-righthander bias kept him in the minors so long. :)
19) Dobie Moore - Just not quite enough career. He had some terrific seasons, if he'd had one more he would make the ballot.
20) Jose Mendez - He's equivalent to a lot of HoVG pitchers in pitching value but none of them could hit enough to have value after they got hurt.
21-25) Rube Waddell, Tommy Leach, Edd Roush, Urban Shocker, Rocky Colavito
26-30) George Sisler, Hilton Smith, Gil Hodges, Fielder Jones, Bobo Newsom

Hugh Duffy - boatload of contemporaries I'd rather have (Beckley, Ryan, Browning, Van Haltren), ranks around 70 currently
Dick Redding - His decline was pretty quick, reminds me a lot of Doc Gooden, ranked #40
Luis Aparicio - Doesn't make my top 100.

1979

1. Willie Mays (-)--He’s alright.

2. Pete Browning (3)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. Keep hope alive! (1927)

3. Charley Jones (4)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (5)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. Minnie Minoso (7)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates.

7. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak, according to win shares.(1945)

8. George Sisler (9)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

9. Edd Roush (10)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s.

10. Ken Boyer (11)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

11. Joe Sewell (12)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

12. Hugh Duffy (13)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

13. George Van Haltren (14)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

14. Jose Mendez (15)--Peak was probably a bit higher than Mays, but the two are very even. (1972)

15. Carl Mays (16)--Big peak, a bit more career value than Ferrell. (1968)

(Max Carey)
16. Alejandro Oms (17)
(Richie Ashburn)
(Sam Thompson)
17. Ralph Kiner (18)
18. Nellie Fox (19)
(Joe Medwick)
(Earl Averill)
19. Frank Howard (-)
(Joe Gordon)
(Bobby Doerr)
20. Quincy Trouppe (20)
(Red Faber)
21. Bob Elliott (21)
(Red Ruffing)
22. Bucky Walters (22)
23. Wally Berger (23)
(Ted Lyons)
24. Dick Redding (24)
25. Ed Williamson (25)
26. Dobie Moore (26)
(Bob Lemon)
27. Billy Pierce (27)
28. Vern Stephens (28)
29. Roger Bresnahan (29)
30. Dave Bancroft (30)

1. Willie Mays - doesn't need much explanation

2. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

3. George Sisler - Even during his "bad" years he could still get a ton of hits. Kiner like peak with some solid years to tack on for career voters.

4. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

5. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

6. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

7. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

8. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

9. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

10. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

11. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

12. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

13. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

14. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.

15. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

16. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

17. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

18. Ralph Kiner - Kiner finally breaks into the lower ranks of my ballot. If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for me.

19. Billy Pierce - Close to Drysdale, but still not quite enough to squeeze into the top 15

20. Cupid Childs - Extremley good 2nd baseman for his time. Not as much career as McPhee or I would've liked him better. Still not 100% sure I even want him this high.

1979 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP just for fun.

1. Willie Mays 30.1 bWS/700PA. For those tallying, that is still better than Charlie Keller, with three times the career and no fielding whatsoever taken into account. The only way he doesn’t make the HOM is if the Hall consists of one player, and even then he would get some votes.

2. Dick Redding Well, with recent stats, he may not be very similar to Spahn, but perhaps Roberts. I think his teens peak is higher than we realize.

3. Pete Browning There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders. 26.1 bWS/700PA, unadjusted for league.

4. Larry Doyle I think the 1910’s NL is getting penalized more than the 1950’s AL, and Doyle is being unfairly penalized for poor fielding. 22.5 bWS/700PA, better than all 2B save Hornsby, Collins, Lajoie, Robinson (and soon Morgan).

5. Dobie Moore Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Based on MLE, 22.1 bWS/700PA. Only Wagner and Vaughn better.

6. Bob Elliott I think that everyone has been penalizing him for mediocre wartime seasons, and are not carefully looking at 1947-1951. 20.3 bWS/700PA.

7. John McGraw Yes, he was injured, yes, he didn’t have a long career, but when he played, he played exceptionally well. 23.9 bWS/700PA (but Rosen is at 24.7)

8. Roger Bresnahan Did just enough for just long enough. 22.7 bWS/700PA, better than all catchers eligible through 1999 save . . . Gene Tenace!!! (24.1), and probably Josh Gibson (unreal 35.6 based on MLEs).

9. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

10. George Van Haltren Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before. 20.0 bWS/700PA.

11. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

12. Cupid Childs Less of a hitter than Doyle, but not by much. Only 18.6 bWS/700PA. I would have thought he would be in the 20’s. Still, his rate is comparable to Sandberg (18.8) Whitaker (18.7) and Gordon (18.5)

13. Minnie Minoso In the Slaughter mold. 21.8 bWS/700PA, exactly the same as Bob Johnson, and similar to Joe Kelley (21.7).

14. George Sisler Almost. 20.2 bWS/700PA, of course dragged down by the latter part of the career.

15. Ben Taylor The new numbers show that from age 31-40, Taylor hit .322, with a .375 OBP and a .442 SLG in 467 games during the 20’s. Seems like a HOMer to me.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES


16. Alejandro Oms MLE give him 21.4 bWS/700PA, a little worse than Edd Roush (21.9).

17. Frank Howard 25.9 bWS/700PA. Good, but not terrific given the relatively few number of PA’s.

18. Billy Pierce 22.1 pWS/300IP. Similar to Clark Griffith (22.8) and Juan Marichal (22.3) and Eddie Cicotte (22.8) and Bucky Walters (22.6) and Wilbur Cooper (22.2) and Charlie Buffinton (22.3) and Don Drysdale (21.9) and Chief Bender (21.8) among pitchers between 3000-3500 IP.

19. Jake Beckley Only 18.6 WS/700PA, but a lot of PA.

20. George Scales Still awaiting full reevaluation, could vault onto ballot next week.

21. Hilton Smith Still awaiting full reevaluation, could vault onto ballot next week.

Missing top 10

Joe Sewell – A year or two more would make him an easy choice. He is creeping up my backlog. He and I are members of the same college fraternity. 15.8 WS/700PA

Ralph Kiner – Only 24.2 bWS/700PA. With that short of a career, and no fielding, he should be over 25 at least.

Hugh Duffy – I like Van Haltren, Roush, and Ryan a little more. Only 20.9 WS/700PA

Luis Aparicio - 10.6 bWS/700PA. His superb fielding doesn’t get him high enough.

Johnny Callison – 18.7 bWS/700PA. That’s similar to Ellis Burks, Wildfire Schulte, and . . .

Felipe Alou – 18.1 bWS/700PA. A few more PA than Callison.

Milt Pappas – 19.8 pWS/300IP. Since he brought it up, Drysdale has 21.9. Pappas (3186 IP) actually is very close to Chuck Finley (3197.3 IP, 19.9 pWS/300IP).

ronw - are you a new voter, or someone we've seen before under another name?

That's Ron Wargo, OCF.

Mays #1, Frank Howard #17. Mays and Ashburn PHoM. Howard, Keller, Kiner on deck.

Aparicio, Pappas, Callison, Alou all good but not close.

1) Mays--
2) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. If you’re going to take one of the second basemen he should be the one. PHoM in 1970.
3) Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career. PHoM in 1939.
4) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me.
5) Elliott--I like him better than Hack. Second greatest 3B before Mathews. PHoM in 1960.
6) Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. PHoM in 1938.
7) Schoendienst--PHoM in 1968. Compare to Julian Javier, his hitting was way above replacement.
8) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. Usually I'm a WS guy but this time I think Warp has it right. PHoM in 1970.
9) Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915. PHoM in 1926.
10) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years. 44 Win Shares to be precise, half of the MLEs. PHoM 1972.
11) Lombardi-- A long career as a catcher with a big bat. Almost 2000 games caught including PCL. PHoM 1976.
12) Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
13) Tommy Bridges—fixed his war credit. 10 top 10 seasons in AL ERA+. PHoM 1975.
14) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976.
15) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
16) Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here. PHoM in 1913.
17) Frank Howard--
18) Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters. PHoM in 1916.
19) Keller
20) Kiner

Sisler--#88, I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years. See also Jack Fournier.
Mendez--#31, I rate him right below Joss. PHoM in 1932.
Hugh Duffy—#77. Good hitter, great fielder. Duffy, Van Haltren, and Ryan are even in my estimation, but off the ballot.
Redding--#42.
Billy Pierce#29

>Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.

I'm sure everybody knows this by now, but it wasn't what I think of as "the end days." It was 5 years out of 13, starting in year 9. Dobie Moore played SS for more seasons.

1. Willie Mays - Pretty good, huh? Fourth best so far behind Ruth, Cobb, and Wagner.

2. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

3. Joe Sewell - Outstanding shortstop. And could hit a little bit too.

4. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting centerfielder, long career

5. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

6. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

7. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

8. George Van Haltren - Good hitting CFer, over 400 adjusted win shares.

9. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

10. George Sisler - Outstanding peak, career changed after injury. Could've been an all time great.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Get a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Hugh Duffy - Good peak, highlighted by his outstanding 1894 season.

13. Bucky Walters - Most of his value comes from his 39-46 seasons.

14. Jose Mendez - Outstanding peak, not much in the way of career value.

15. Bob Elliot - Good hitting third baseman with a good peak.

16. Edd Rousch
17. Tommy Leach
18. Harry Hooper
19. Alejandro Oms
20. Buzz Arlett
21. Dizzy Trout
22. Gil Hodges
23. Fielder Jones
24. Pie Traynor
25. Ralph Kiner - Short career
26. Billy Pierce
27. Cupid Childs
28. Wally Berger
29. Dick Bartell
30. Quincy Trouppe

Dick Redding - outside of his three year peak he doesn't impress me much

PHoM: Willie Mays & Frank Howard

1. Willie Mays (new)

He was good.

2. George Van Haltren (2,5,2)

My faith continues that one day he will get his due.

3. Jake Beckley (3,2,3)

See GVH.

4. Mickey Welch (4,4,4)

See Beckley.

5. Nellie Fox (8,7,9)
6. George Sisler (6,6,6)

His year, I believe.

7. Dobie Moore (5,3,5)
8. Hugh Duffy (7,8,7)
9. Edd Roush (10,10,10)
10. Tommy Leach (9,9,8)
11. Frank Howard (new)

I imagine he will be hanging around on my ballot for a while.

12. Minnie Minoso (12,13,11)
13. Quincy Trouppe (11,11,13)
14. Luis Aparicio (new)
15. Sam Rice (15,12,12)

16-20. Boyer, Ryan, Sewell, Doyle, Childs
21-25. Kiner, White, Elliott, Smith, Streeter
26-30. Willis, Mullane, Gleason, Grimes, Pierce

1979 Ballot

I’ve made still more adjustments to my integration process for all the positions. I rank within position, then combine. But I haven’t done it as well as I could have. This ballot will look weird, but it’s the product of a better process.

Is it 1980 yet????

1. Willie Mays: Best CF on the board (tee-hee!).

OK now for the hard part....

2. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

3. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too and good hitting.

4. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor/Carribean league play.

5. Charley Jones: Best available left fielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me.

6. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF.

7. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with a pretty good amount of highly leveraged relief innings too.

8. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me. Let's see, 19th C., blacklisted, yeah the HOF won't get him right ever.

9. Ned Williamson: Best 3B available. Strong power-hitting peak/prime 3B candidate, who was an amazing fielder. BP lists him with a RATE of 116. That’s higher than Marty Marion, Brooks Robinson, Rey Sanchez, or Bill Mazeroski.

10. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime pitching candidate.

11. Cupid Childs: Best 2B on the board. Love the peak/prime, don’t mind that there’s nothing else.

12. Hugh Duffy: Best CF on the board---whose middle name isn’t Howard. Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line. The HOF's got this one.

13. Elston Howard: He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

14. Tommy Leach: Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose.

15. George Sisler: Arlie Latham was going to go here. Yes, that Arlie Latham. And it's not like Latham's a terrible person to have in the 15th slot of a ballot, but I couldn't live with the idea that Arlie Latham would stand between George Sisler and the HOM. I don't mean to say that I'm voting strategically, no, because I don't generally support Sisler with any conviction. In fact I haven't voted for him in years. Instead I understand the argument for Sisler well, and it is sensical. The arguments for Latham are simply not as compelling (though they are are surprisingly compelling---to me). Anyway given my lack of certainty and the long bygone dismissal of the Latham by the electorate, I'm not going to use the off-ballot penalty against Sisler and start pushing a guy whose case is still somewhat ambiguous in my own mind, and in placing Latham 16th, I have more time to consider whether I'm in error, whether my system is spitting out a bad name, or whether the electorate knows something I don't.

16. Arlie Latham. WS (with AA discounts) sees three MVP-type seasons, a close fourth, and a decently long career. WARP1 sees three MVP-type seasons and two near-MVP seassons. Latham is an extreme case. He ran a LOT in a time when running was a bigger and more "impactful" part of teams' offenses. In addition, he was an outstanding defender at a position that was more defensively important then than now. Yet he wasn't much of a hitter. Still WS sees him as the best at his position twice, second best four other times, and as an MVP candidate five times. These are all positives in his favor, certainly, and though I don't expect that many agree with my assessment I rank him among the top 20 3B of all time. Near the bottom of the top 20, but in there nonetheless. And among 3Bs whose careers were more than 80% over as of 1979, he probably ranks in the top top 15 or 13 among 3Bs, in my opinion.

Or maybe I'm crazy? There's always that.

17. Ken Boyer.

18. Larry Doyle.

19. Vic Willis.

20. Burleigh Grimes.

21. Bob Elliott

22. Wally Schang

23. Pete Browning

24. Nellie Fox

25. Alejandro Oms


New dudes

Frank Howard: HOVG. Nice peak, the concave career is a bit disorienting, and he didn’t do quite enough to be Mark McGwire. Or Harm Killebrew.

Luis Aparicio: Like the statue of Saddam in Bagdhad, the graven idol that all SS in the 1970s seemed molded from is finally pulled down to the ground. How many runs did his teams waste batting him in the one or two slot?

Johnny Callison: Good player, bad HOMer.

Felipe Alou: Good player, occasionally good manager.

Milt Pappas: Who would be his contemporary analog? Freddy Garcia? David Wells?

Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.


Ralph Kiner: I’m not a huge fan. Like Minoso he’s around my top 50. I actually see them as virtually equally good candidates. Notice I didn’t say equally good players or similar players. Just candidates. They both have a similar number of plusses and minuses, and as far as their type of player is concerned, they do just about as well as you can without getting my out and out endorsement for HOM election. Either is a “tolerable error” in my judgment, but neither is someone I’ll vote for happily.

Dick Redding has slipped downward. His 1920s numbers were just awful, and I can’t really justify his placement among the big names. I don’t know where he’s landed yet, but he’s going down.

Joe Sewell isn’t far away from the top 25, but Jake Beckley is.

1979

Last year’s #1 and #3 got elected. Mays and Averill go PHoM.

1. Willie Mays (new, PHoM 1979)—ya think?

2. Dobie Moore (2 last year-2-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

3. Ralph Kiner (4-3-2, PHoM 1964)—there’s not just those 7 HR titles, but all those BB, too

4. Rube Waddell (5-4-3, PHoM 1932)—second highest ERA+ available, and it turns out after all these years that his UER were not outside the norm

5. George Sisler (6-5-4, PHoM 1938)—when people say his peak or prime wasn’t long enough, the truth is that nobody in the backlog peaks for any longer

6. Larry Doyle (7-6-5, PHoM 1975)—15 years of 15+ WS, I don’t see another eligible “glove” who did that, plus same OPS+ as Edd Roush and 5 points more than Hugh Duffy

7. Charley Jones (8-7-7, PHoM 1921)—Charley made my PHoM without 2 MLE blacklist years; now, he moves up with them added in

8. Edd Roush (11-10-11, PHoM 1976)—really belongs ahead of Averill and Duffy, on reconsideration

9. Addie Joss (9-8-6, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available

10. Jose Mendez (13-12-13, PHoM 1957)—this is with essentially no credit at all for his hitting and his SS years

(10a. Earl Averill [12a-11a-12a, PHoM 1979])

11. Frank Howard (new)—monster OPS+

12. Pete Browning (10-9-8, PHoM 1961)—essentially equivalent to Charley Jones if you give Jones the two blacklist years, clearly better if you don’t

13. Minnie Minoso (14-13-14, PHoM 1970)—I give 2 NeL seasons though at well below peak level

(13a. Stan Hack [14a-13a-14a])

14. Bobby Estalella (15-x-x)—if his skin was either lighter or darker, he would have a more conventional career (MLs or NeLs) and would be a PHoMer by now; as it is his career is very hard to get a handle on, but the ability was there

15. Hilton Smith (35-34-34)—moves up based on new NeL numbers, the pitcher I wanted Redding to be?

Drops out: 17. Vic Willis

16. Alejandro Oms (16-14-15)—big winner in recent re-eval.
17. Vic Willis (12-11-12, PHoM 1977)
18. Hugh Duffy (18-17-16)
19. Nellie Fox (17-15-18, PHoM 1971)
(19a. Don Drysdale [14b-13b-15a])
(19b. Bobby Doerr [17a-15a-15a])
(19c. Jim Bunning (17b-16-new)—somewhere below Drysdale)
20. Phil Rizzuto (19-18-17)—one of the big winners but still not on ballot

21. Charlie Keller (20-19-19)
22. Joe Sewell (21-20-20)
(22a. Richie Ashburn [21a-20a-20a])
23. Jim McCormick (22-21-21)
24. Hack Wilson (23-22-22)
25. Elston Howard (24-23-23)—new #1 catcher until Freehan comes along, much better than I had thought
26. Dick Redding (25-24-24, PHoM 1971)
27. Tommy Bond (26-25-25, PHoM 1929)
28. Wally Berger (27-26-26)
29. Mickey Welch (28-27-27)
30. Ken Boyer (29-28-28)—new #1 3B, not overwhelming however

They also ran

30. Dizzy Dean (29-29-30)
31. Dick Lundy (30-30-31)
32. Chuck Klein (31-31-32)
33. Al Rosen (32-32-33)
34. Frank Chance (33-33-34)
36. Pie Traynor (35-35-36)
37. Tony Mullane (36-36-37)
38. Quincy Trouppe (37-37-38)—no longer the best catcher around
39. Ed Williamson (38-38-39, PHoM 1924)
(39a. Early Wynn [38a-38a-39a)
40. Gavvy Cravath (39-39-40)

41. Vern Stephens (40-40-41)
42. Mike Tiernan (41-41-42)
43. Cupid Childs (42-42-43, PHoM 1925)
44. Bill Monroe (43-43-44)
45. Bob Johnson (44-44-45)
46. Bob Elliott (45-45-46)—all the way down to about here, I still wish I could get all these guys on my ballot. Maybe Bresnahan, too, but after that, no
47. Roger Bresnahan (46-46-47)
48. Bucky Walters (47-47-48)
(48a. Biz Mackey [47a-47a-49])
(48b. Red Faber [47b-47b-49a])
(48c. Wes Ferrell [47c-47c-49b])
(48d. Willie Keeler [47d-47d-49c])
49. Lefty Gomez (48-48-50)
50. Dave Bancroft (49-49-51)
(50a. Jimmy Sheckard [49a-49a-51a])

Also: Luis Aparicio about #60, behind Campaneris and Fregosi, but ahead of Wills around #80 and Mazeroski around #130.

15. George Sisler: Arlie Latham was going to go here. Yes, that Arlie Latham. And it's not like Latham's a terrible person to have in the 15th slot of a ballot, but I couldn't live with the idea that Arlie Latham would stand between George Sisler and the HOM.

As somebody who has studied his merits and concluded that Sisler doesn't belong in the HoM, it is frustrating to see this kind of ballot reasoning....

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

Adjustments this time: I was convinced, finally, that I wasn’t giving the exceptional middle infielders enough fielding credit (except for Fox, who I oddly had already adjusted for some years back), so a few of those guys (Rizzuto, Pesky, etc.) got a bit of a bump, though none to the ballot. As a result of the discussion on his thread, Hilton Smith also got into my top 50 for the first time.

Mays and Pete Browning go into my pHOM this “year.”

1979 ballot:

1. Willie Mays (pHOM 1979). It’s already all been said: inner-circle, big gap, one of the all-time all-time greats.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Comparable with some of the best ML pitchers of his era, and those are some pretty shiny names.

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much (especially with the revelation that they’re not even as bad as they at first seemed).

4. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I have to say I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least for anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have.

5. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs.

6. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another infielder with a great peak, from an underrepresented era.

7. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

8. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Perhaps not quite as good as I’d thought for several elections there. Still, impressive by any of my favorite measures.

10. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste. And, hey, from that underrepresented era again!

11. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the backlog catchers, a smidgen ahead of Elston Howard.

12. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). A peak I just couldn’t argue around anymore.

13. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

14. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Another underrated pitcher with a solid peak.

15. George Sisler (pHOM 1939). Overrated, sure, but still worthy. He finally returns to my ballot, perhaps just in time for his election? Clearly, he was just waiting for me to come around. :-)

16-20: Rosen (1968), Bresnahan (1973), Redding (1975), C. Jones (1976), E. Howard (1976)
21-25: Browning (1979), Joss, Pierce, Fox, F. Howard
26-30: [Reese], Leach, [W. Ford], [Slaughter], Doyle, Cravath, Berger, McGraw
31-35: H. Smith, H. Wilson, [Doerr], Oms, Minoso, Boyer
36-40: Gomez, Chance, [Wynn], [Lyons], Poles, [Ashburn], Roush, Pesky
41-45: McCormick, J. Ryan, Elliott, [Lemon], G. Burns, [Rixey], Colavito
46-50: Rizzuto, Welch, Van Haltren, Sewell, Trout

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. Midpack at #34.

•Sewell. Back from the dead? There’s just not remotely enough peak here for me. With my middle-infielder defensive adjustment, he slides just into my top 50, at #49.

•Beckley. No peak. What more is there to say?

•Redding. Not quite the peak of my favorite unelected eligible pitchers, but he’s close (and in my pHOM). At #18. The new numbers seem to have cast some doubt on him, but I haven’t seen enough so far to warrant dropping him. Since he’s approaching my ballot, I’ll be sure to investigate this more fully in the next election or two.

•Frank Howard. Much better than I had realized. If I went by WS alone, he’d probably be on my ballot. I’m not convinced WARP’s defensive evaluations (or, heck, any of its evaluations) are on the mark, but I also felt I should be conservative in Howard's first time around. He starts at #25; even if he doesn’t move up, he’ll probably make my pHOM within a few elections.

•Aparicio. I don’t see it at all. Maranville doesn’t get into my top 50, and I think he was much better than this guy.

•Callison. Not as good as Maris, who isn’t close to my top 50.

•Felipe Alou. Not as good as Callison.

•Perranoski. Two stellar years, but that’s not quite enough to get him into my top 50. In my system, he challenges Stu Miller for second-best reliever so far after Wilhelm, though.

•Pappas. Doesn’t even make the (recently pared-down) consideration set.

1979 Ballot

1) Willie Mays
Ahead of Wagner by a sliver (due to war credit) for 4th best position player, so far. He’s only behind Ruth, Williams, & Cobb.

2) Jose Mendez
I’m growing more confident he has the edge over Redding.

3) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

4) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

5) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is better than all other eligible hitters, not named Willie Mays.

6) Bob Johnson
Belatedly adding a year of Minor League credit moves him into he top 10.

7) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but, thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points, Bucky wins out.

8) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP is close to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little below Boyer (and Gordon). Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

9) Charley Jones
Seems like poor man’s Browning, or perhaps an old-timer’s Ralph Kiner. Blackball year credit gets him on the ballot.

10) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 47.4 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 88.4 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

11) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for best top 3 seasons in Win Shares. The extra war credit for Keller gets him a spot above Kiner.

12) Billy Pierce
He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.

13) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

14) Dobie Moore
Perhaps the Black Hughie Jennings, but I think he’s got more career value so he makes my ballot (Jennings would be ranked in the 40s).

15) Minnie Minoso
Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit gives him the edge over Kiner.

The Rest of the Top 50.

16) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his Relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

17) Jake Beckley—Oh so close to the ballot due to career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
18) Tommy Leach
19) Gavy Cravath
20) Jimmy Ryan
21) Burleigh Grimes
22) George Van Haltren
23) Harry Hooper
24) Rabbit Maranville
25) Fred Dunlap
26) Sam Rice
27) Bob Elliott
28) Fielder Jones
29) Phil Rizzuto
30) Nellie Fox
31) Alejandro Oms
32) Cy Seymour
33) Vern Stephens
34) Quincy Trouppe
35) Dick Bartell
36) Hugh Duffy—In a dead-heat with Sisler. Win Shares likes Duffy more, WARP3 likes Sisler, I’m kinda splitting the difference.
37) George Sisler—Was not quite great enough for not quite long enough.
38) Dom DiMaggio
39) Urban Shocker
40) Spotswood Poles
41) Gil Hodges
42) George Burns
43) Carl Mays
44) Bobo Newsom
45) Johnny Pesky
46) Bobby Veach
47) Dave Bancroft
48) Edd Roush
49) Cupid Childs
50) Mickey Vernon

New Notables
63) Frank Howard—His Win Shares numbers are great, but WARP is very unimpressive. 39.1 WARP3 in his top 5 seasons is dragging his rank down considerably for me.
83) Luis Aparicio
>100) Johnny Callison, Felipe Alou, Milt Pappas

15. George Sisler: Arlie Latham was going to go here. Yes, that Arlie Latham. And it's not like Latham's a terrible person to have in the 15th slot of a ballot, but I couldn't live with the idea that Arlie Latham would stand between George Sisler and the HOM.

As somebody who has studied his merits and concluded that Sisler doesn't belong in the HoM, it is frustrating to see this kind of ballot reasoning....

Eric, if the other Eric has both of them neck-and-neck, I don't see a problem. If there's a sizeable gap between them, then that would be different.

But I think the real problem here is, if he's going to pick a 19th century third baseman, how he missed the more dominating Billy Nash? :-)

But I think the real problem here is, if he's going to pick a 19th century third baseman, how he missed the more dominating Billy Nash? :-)

Or John McGraw. Maybe he likes freshness. :-)

1979 ballot.

1. Willie Mays - Willie Mays was one of the ten greatest baseball players of all time. Obviously #1 this year.
2. Wally Schang - When Schang retired in 1931, he was the major league career leader in WS. He did not earn this distinction lightly, as his total of 245 is still 12th all-time among retired ML catchers. Futhermore, there are two factors that make him more deserving than the statistics show. First, the AL was the stronger of the two leagues during his time. Second, catcher durability during his time was low- by my estimates, resulting in 10 to 15 percent less playing time than that for post-1930 catchers. Due to high OBP, had same career EQA as his exact contemporary Sisler(!) Bresnahan is #18 on my ballot.
3. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL.
4. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. Perhaps a Lefty Gomez-type career with the flashes of dominance, but better.
5. Charlie Keller - With reasonable war credit, his monster peak puts him ahead of Kiner in my system.
6. Frank Howard - By Win Shares, (297 WS;25.4 WS/162 in 7353 PA for a 60s player), very deserving. Causes me some unease- his WARP3 doesn't make him look like a sure thing. I would like to incorporate warped thinking in my ratings, but the details of these numbers are not written down, so I don't know how much to trust them. More regrettable is the age problem: he's younger than "bat" players Cash, Killebrew, Kaline, Aaron, and F. Robinson who are not yet eligible, yet he doesn't have to compete with any of them on the ballot this year. But, in the end, he's here because that's where I have him. He was a great hitter and borderline candidate who happened to pitch in pitchers parks in a pitchers era.
7. Tommy Bridges - 2nd most runs saved above average of all unelected Cooperstown eligible pitchers,
behind Blyleven. One of the overlooked great pitchers. Underrated by HoM voters because of his low numbers of games pitched in the 2nd half of his career, but as Joe Dimino has calculated, his "pennants added" still ends up at a HoM-worthy level. I'm happy to see recognition of and support for the great non-HoF pitchers of the 1930s-1950s. I have Pierce #21 and Emil Dutch Leonard #19.
8. Lefty Gomez - Forgot him last week. Very good to dominant in a time when dominance was rare.
9. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
10. Wally Berger - Though he doesn't look worthy by peak-only or career-only metrics, had quite a nice prime and pops onto my ballot as I tweak my ratings.
11. Nellie Fox - Borderline 50s 2B candidate. Solid prime, but some issues with AL strength.
12. Sol White - Very speculative ranking, but available MiL and NeL data show a good batter with a decent-to-long length career and an overall record difficult to distinguish from that of Frank Grant.
13. Ken Boyer - Boyer's and Bob Elliott's (#16) cases stand out among unelected 3B.
14. Ralph Kiner - Great peak, less filling.
15. Orestes Minoso - Not an extereme career, but a little credit for ML time missed and a fine prime put him on the ballot.

-Aparicio would have been apariciated in my previous system and made my ballot due to his extreme career length for position. Having a hard time thinking of a fundamental justification for so much reward for length of career, so is only #30 barring further rethinking.

-Redding is #25, just behind Byrd.
-Beckley is #60. As mentioned above, am less inclined to reward career length than before. I also use a population-based adjustment of raw numbers, which makes it hard for unelected early players to stand out (Duffy #52), but I hope to objectively test my "time-lining" hypothesis and am therefore open to readjusting inter-era comparisons.

-Sisler (#38). Compare with not-yet eligible 1B Boog Powell:
Powell 6681 PA, 282 WS, 134 OPS+, peaks 176/163/160; 85.5WARP1, 78.3 WARP3.
Sisler: 9013 PA; 292 WS; 124 OPS+, peaks 181/170/161, 85.7 WARP1, 77.9 WARP3.
Sisler had the higher peak, but taking into account the zero-line error of both comprehensive metrics, Powell had a better career. Overall, it looks close to a wash to me. If Powell were eligible this year, how would he do compared to Sisler and why? It is because Sisler was better than these statistics show and Powell wasn't? Or because famous players from batters eras get rated higher than less-famous players from pitchers eras even when their performances were objectively equal?

School year is winding down and I have not been able to give this year's ballot as much consideration as I may have otherwise.
Mays and Sisler make my PHoM. Howard and Aparicio fall just short of my top 75. Within the next 2 or 3 ballots I plan to overlook some facets of my system, which may move them both up significantly. We'll see.

1)Willie Mays - Now I know what a true great looks like. I think it's fair to say that he was one of the 5 greatest men ever to wield a baseball bat. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
4)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). No longer the best hitter in that group, either (WIllie Mays). (PHOM)
5)Joe Sewell (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
7)George Sisler - Highly comparable with Banks. Main difference is that Banks did his good work while at SS and Sisler at 1B. I've heard mixed reports about his defense, being either a little better than average up to very good+. I can take each with a grain of salt and be happy with this placement. Makes my PHoM just in time for what hopefully will be his inclusion into the real HoM (PHoM)
((7a)Cool Papa Bell))
8)Jose Mendez
((8a)Willard Brown - I had been underestimating him severely. His reputation enhances his already wonderful numbers.))
9)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime and glove than Beckley. This ranking may be an understatement.
10)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder.
11)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
12)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
13)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher
((13a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
14) Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
15)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
((15a)Don Drysdale - Not yet, DD))
16)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest
17)Ken Boyer - so close. Still my highest ranking 3B. At least for now.
18)Wally Berger - super-underrated
19)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
20)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. NOt sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
21)Ernie Lombardi - deense was below average, but not quite horrible
22)Roger Bresnahan
23)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
24)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
25)Chuck Klein
((25a)Joe Gordon - neither here nor there. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
26)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
27)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
28)Pete Browning
29)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
30)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
31)Cupid Childs
32)Phil Rizzuto
33)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
((33a)Jim Bunning - Not convinced. He had merits, but not enough for balloting.))
34)John McGraw
35)Jimmy Ryan
36)Alejandro Oms
37)Luke Easter
38)Johnny Evers
39)Pete Reiser
40)George Kell
41)Bobby Veach
42)Bob Elliott
43)Bucky Walters
44)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
45)Fred Dunlap
46)Jim Bottomley
47)Bob Johnson
48)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
49)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough (not anything) surrounding it.
50)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for prue "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
51)Tony Lazerri
52)Dolf Camilli
53)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
54)Johnny Pesky
55)Hippo Vaughn
56)Tip O'Neill
57)Rocky Colavito
58)Denny Lyons
59)Cecil Travis - 2nd all-time for most war credit (Ted Williams). 4 years is a lot of credit.
60)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
61)Lon Warneke
62)Don Newcombe
63)Jack Clements
64)Cy Williams
65)Roger Maris
66)Pie Traynor
67)Frank Chance
68)Kiki Cuyler
69)Red Schoendienst
70)John Clapp
71)Larry Doyle
72)Bill Joyce
73)Benny Kauff
74)Bill Nicholson
75)Wally Schang

i had GS and AL them neck and neck, and given my misgivings, I broke the tie in favor of the guy whose case had wider support because I assuemd that his wider support indicated a flaw in my own reasoning.

Nash just didn't do as well in my system as Latham. While, yes, he was six times best at position, one time second best, but he had only one season where he's an MVP candidate. Latham's peak value is higher, he's got several MVP-type seasons, and that pushes him comfortably up over Nash for me.

McGraw is closer to Latham. Among current eligibles, he's a smidge behind Al Rosen who is a smidge behind Latham (until subsequent candidates intervene, like Bonilla, Chi Jones, and others).

Thankfully after this election, we'll be generating an extensivenew backlog of 1960s-1970s players and maybe Arlie will go away for a while...I'm a bit sheepish about him even getting close to my ballot.

Thankfully after this election, we'll be generating an extensivenew backlog of 1960s-1970s players and maybe Arlie will go away for a while...I'm a bit sheepish about him even getting close to my ballot.

I'm actually having that problem with Tip O'Neill. I've been pushing guys that are in a virtual tie with him over him, but eventually he would have to go himself. Fortunately, the new backloggers on the horizon should keep him off for good. After having O'Neill prominently on my ballot over a half a century ago, I'm very wary of typing his name on my ballot ever again.

As for Latham, I just can't imagine that Ed Williamson isn't "da man" from that category.

As for O'Neill, he makes our entire backlog of short career/heavy hitters seem like pretty darn long career guys after all.

But all things considered, if there's anybody from the 19C that's been missed its Charley Jones or Pete Browning, and they both beat O'Neill head to head on the same strengths.

As for Latham, I just can't imagine that Ed Williamson isn't "da man" from that category.

While I like Williamson over Latham and McGraw, I'll still take Nash over him. That '84 season of Ed's just overrates him considerably if you're using Baseball Reference's park factor (not that it still wasn't a fine, fine season).

As for O'Neill, he makes our entire backlog of short career/heavy hitters seem like pretty darn long career guys after all.

If we're not taking into account different attrition levels for different eras, then I would agree.

But all things considered, if there's anybody from the 19C that's been missed its Charley Jones or Pete Browning, and they both beat O'Neill head to head on the same strengths.

I have both of them slightly above O'Neill. Besides, I don't have the same difficulty having them appear on my ballot (which they did in the past) as I do with O'Neill. :-)

Fortunately, the new and old backloggers on the horizon should keep him off for good.

That's more like it.

For '84, just assume that all those HR were 2B, because that's what they were (fly balls into the short left field seats) every other year. Unless you want to go back and figure all those 2B as fly ball outs--not only for Williamson, of course; but for Anson, Gore, Kelly etc etc etc. I figure Williamson is overrated by 10 percent one year or 1 percent for his career. (Ditto Anson, Gore, Kelly and all the other White Stockings of '84, excepting the poor pitchers.)

If Big Ed had hit 0 HR in '84 instead of 27, he would probably have done better here. If he had been inactive in '84, he would probably have done better here.

I knew you were going to bring that up, Marc. :-)

If you're going by a floating park factor for Chicago that year, you will ultimately overrate all players from that team. The park was nothing like it was before of after 1884 in terms of affecting run production.

If Big Ed had hit 0 HR in '84 instead of 27, he would probably have done better here. If he had been inactive in '84, he would probably have done better here.

That's a flat-out ridiculous statement. How you come to that conclusion escapes me. If he didn't have that season, he's no where near my ballot.

1) Willie Mays- As a Mets fan in the mid 70’s, I have vivid memories of his last year. Despite that, I think he gets in ;-) .
2) George Sisler - 2800 hits, .340 career average. 2 times over .400
3) Nellie Fox - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times.
4) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years!
5) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher!
6) Chuck Klein - 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
7) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
8) Pie Trayner - .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
9) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify.
10) Luis Aparicio - nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
11) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest period ever. 3 years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
13) Ken Boyer - 2nd best NL 3rd baseman after Matthews in 50's-60's. MVP. 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field.
14) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.
15) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick

close but no cigar-

16) Mickey Welch
17) Joe Sewell - Just misses, needed a couple of more seasons.
18) Cannonball Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
19) Gil Hodges -
20) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
21) Bill White
22) Frank Howard – I suspect whatever his totals this year will end up as his peak.
23) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
24) Rube Waddell

>>If Big Ed had hit 0 HR in '84 instead of 27, he would probably have done better here. If he had been inactive in '84, he would probably have done better here.

>That's a flat-out ridiculous statement. How you come to that conclusion escapes me. If he didn't have that season, he's no where near my ballot.

I no longer have any idea who exactly said what, but from the discussion I got the impression that those 27 HR hurt Big Ed becasue some voters just thought, well, that's not credible, and therefore neither is Ed. Sort of the perception issue that he's so overrated that he must really be terrible.

As for Latham, I just can't imagine that Ed Williamson isn't "da man" from that category.

I also was going to call the good Dr. on that, but I noticed the following on his ballot:

9. Ned Williamson: Best 3B available.

-----------

For '84, just assume that all those HR were 2B, because that's what they were (fly balls into the short left field seats) every other year.

84 is a strange year. I always assumed that they changed the ground rule that year to add some pizzazz for their customer war with the Chicago Unions (who did leave town mid-season).

If you're going by a floating park factor for Chicago that year, you will ultimately overrate all players from that team. The park was nothing like it was before of after 1884 in terms of affecting run production.

My first thought was "Could this be fixed by tweaking the Chicago PF's?" Its complicated by the fact that Chicago moved to a new park in 1885.

Chicago certainly figured out how to use the park more than their opponents did, outhomering their opponents 143-82.

I no longer have any idea who exactly said what, but from the discussion I got the impression that those 27 HR hurt Big Ed becasue some voters just thought, well, that's not credible, and therefore neither is Ed. Sort of the perception issue that he's so overrated that he must really be terrible.

Anybody who would think that is nuts. Williamson may not have been as good as his 169+ seems to suggest, but it was still a terrific season for a third baseman of that time. That's indisputable.

Chicago certainly figured out how to use the park more than their opponents did, outhomering their opponents 143-82.

They did have a few guys on that team with some pop in their bats.

I think that's right. They didn't figure out how to do it, they just did it because they were better hitters. Not to mention, again, that the park hadn't changed from '83, only the ground rule.

Each player has their 76-77-78 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Roberto Clemente (1) and Hoyt Wilhelm (2).

1. Willie Mays (new) - Say Hey!

2. Jose Mendez (1-2-3) - More like Sandy Koufax than Wes Ferrell, even if he couldn't hit as well as Ferrell.

3. Charley Jones (x-4-5) - All positions, all eras. The only glaring NA-era omission.

4. Wally Schang (6-5-4) - *His BBRef page says, "The ONLY great offensive catcher of the World War I era, and solid defensively as well. His greatness has been recognized in the BaseballEvolution.com Hall of Fame." *No offense meant to Louis Santop.

5. Billy Pierce (4-6-6) - deserves leverage credit, on top of an already strong resume.

6. Quincy Trouppe (3-3-7) - the tail of his career was preferable to the head of Campanella's career.

7. Ken Boyer (5-7-8) - a consecutive peak, entirely at 3B, in a strong league (1958-64).

8. Joe Sewell (11-9-9) - The best available SS. The latest research on Dobie Moore shows that Moore was no better than Sewell in the same time span.

9. George Sisler (14-11-12) - Two 7-year halves: one with 154 OPS+, one with 97 OPS+ but a .320 BA! Even in today's offensive era, it's hard to fathom how a .320 BA could lead to a below-average OPS+.

10. Dick Redding (8-10-11) - see my comments in his own thread.

11. Jake Beckley (13-13-10) - Amazing that 1B was below-average in terms of Runs Created for much of his career. I'm appreciating his durability more and more.

12. Nellie Fox (9-12-13) - a grade better with the bat than Mazeroski.

13. Orestes Minoso (13-15-x) - I dropped him last year, but the Minoso vs. Indian Bob Johnson mini-study convinced me he belongs back on my ballot.

14. Rabbit Maranville (never on) - near-identical statistics to Aparicio, but defense was a greater part of run prevention in his day.

15. Elston Howard (x-x-15) - See Boyer, Ken, then look at Ellie's 1961-64.

16-20: Kiner, Doyle, Luque, F. Howard, Browning.
21-25: Bridges, Oms, Aparicio, Lombardi, Waddell.

Marc,
I was one of those who found that season extremely overrated, but to say that he'd have been better off not playing it - well, I don't even believe you mean that.

Williamson I think made my ballot a number of times, actually.

1979 Ballot:

After this year’s discussion, I decided to give more emphasis to positional balance in my win shares-based system for position players. Boyer and Fox are the main beneficiaries.

This year my personal hall of merit inductees are Mays and Fox.

1. Willie Mays – 13 seasons with 30+ WS, 6 seasons with 40+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). A+ defensive outfielder; won the Gold Glove every season from 1957 (when the award was first given) to 1968. Rookie of the Year for 1951. MVP for 1954 and 1965; twelve times in the top 10 in votes. Age 21-22 seasons in military service. I have him ranked as the # 4 player to date, behind Ruth, Wagner, and Williams. (PHoM 1979)

2. Orestes Miñoso – 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). He won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. (PHoM 1970)

3. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). Five Gold Glove awards. MVP for 1964; four times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1975)

4. Phil Rizzuto – A truly great player, underappreciated by the voters here. Great defensive shortstop and an above-average hitter for the position. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

5. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

6. Nellie Fox - 9 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 34 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). “A” defensive second baseman; 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. MVP for 1959; six times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1975)

7. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. (PHoM 1938)

8. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). From 1921 to 29 (ages 26 to 34), he averaged an OPS+ of 138 while playing center field with excellent range. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

9. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

10. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

11. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

12. Gavy Cravath – From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. However, he was just continuing what he’d been doing for years, while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30. (PHoM 1976)

13. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

14. Dobie Moore – – “A superb fielder with outstanding range and a terrific arm...An outstanding hitter, he hit for average and could also hit the long ball.” —James A. Riley.

15. Dick Redding – “One of the great pitchers of black baseball” —James A. Riley. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16. Frank Howard – I was a bit surprised that he showed up this high, but he has to rank between Cravath and Kiner. Hondo will eventually make my personal hall of merit; it’s not so clear that he’ll ever make my 15-person ballot.

17-20. Grimes (PHoM 1940), Keller, Newcombe, Leach (PHoM 1932)
21–25. Bresnahan, Easter, Arlett, Rosen, Pesky

Other consensus top 10:

26. Ralph Kiner – I used to think of myself as peak-oriented relative to most of the electorate, but some recent voting trends are more peak-oriented than I’m comfortable with. I mean if Kiner had hit like Mantle, I’d have no problem voting for him despite having only 7 good seasons. But Kiner was no Mantle and 7 good seasons isn’t much to hang an HoM case on.

48. George Sisler – His imminent election will be a great disappointment to me. I understand how the 4 voters who don’t use sabermetric methods would support him, but I don’t understand how most of the rest of the electorate, who understand that an OPS+ of 124 simply isn’t that impressive for a first baseman, came to view him as one of the 15 best qualified candidates. I’m hardly the best friend of Gavy Cravath, but I’ll re-post a comparison of Sisler with Cravath and ask again, how could anyone place Sisler ahead of Cravath? How could anyone rank them as even close?


Comparison of Sisler’s 8 remaining seasons with Cravath:


76. Joe Sewell – I can’t see it.

Not in my top 100. Jake Beckley – One thing I’ll take away from this project is an impulse to scream every time I see his name.

Other new arrivals:

Johnny Callison ranks # 91. To have become a viable candidate, he would have needed about three more great seasons like those he had in 1962-65.

Alou and Aparicio were both fine players who didn’t make my top 100. Among the pitchers, I thought Perranoski came closer to an HoM career than Pappas, though neither made my top 100.

Correction - the footnotes to my tables comparing Sisler to Cravath should have said "Seasons adjusted to 154-game schedule"

>an OPS+ of 124 simply isn’t that impressive for a first baseman, came to view him as one of the 15 best qualified candidates.

Brent, you answered your own question. It's not Sisler's 124 that matters, it's the 157 for 7 years. And Cravath's 160 is 2/7ths MLEs, which not everybody acknowledges, as is almost half his "other years" (117 actual ML games 1906-1909).

I agree with your ranking of Sisler twice as deep as Kiner, however (it's just that I have them 3 and 5). Those are a couple of awesome peaks, vastly better than anything Minoso, Duffy and Oms have to offer. I also agree with your assessment of Frank Howard.

But, anyway, on 1) peak vs. prime and 2) how much to credit MLEs, there are different strokes for different folks.

Those are a couple of awesome peaks, vastly better than anything Minoso, Duffy and Oms have to offer.

I think "awesome" may be overstating things a bit - I'd describe a player as "awesome" if he was the best player of his generation--Kiner wasn't exactly Ted Williams and Sisler wasn't Babe Ruth.

And when you take account of fielding, at which Minoso, Duffy and Oms all excelled, I don't see a vast gulf between their best seasons and those of Howard/Kiner/Sisler.

Sisler wasn't Babe Ruth

He wasn't Cobb, Hornsby or Speaker either (in terms of seven year batting peak). I don't think he was Heilmann either. And I say that as a Sisler voter.

FWIW, my mid-ballot section of "bats" goes Kiner, Cravath, CJones, Sisler.

I don't think I accept the validity of "positional balance" as a reason to elevate Boyer or Fox. Ballplayers don't choose their positions at random, so there's no reason why the distribution of stars between positions should be equal either. In various periods, managers of professional ball teams have clearly favored a distribution of players that has resulted in there being few or no top run creators at particular positions.

For example, it is not a fluke that there were almost no great 3B between Levi Meyerle and Eddie Matthews; that's how rosters were constructed.

Likewise, very few great hitters have been catchers, because it's almost impossible for a great ballplayer to optimise his value as a catcher, because of the wear and tear.

Similarly, the Aparicio/Concepcion generation had forgotten Honus Wagner and believed that shortstops had to be small scrappy guys who didn't hit much-- only Ripken changed that belief, and Weaver was criticized for moving him to SS.

Finally, there have been few great 2B, once it became a fielding position; if you could field 2B you could field SS, which was more valuable.

There's always the occasional exception -- a player who ended up at 3B or 2B because his career was blocked by an established SS. But not many -- the greatest players tended to be obviously so good that the established SS was traded.

Given these quirks, there's very little validity to the concept of positional balance (even e.g. the "Catcher bonus"), beyond making sure that you've got some pitchers on your ballot and that you've approriately valued defense against offense.

Generally I agree with karl. I'm more interested in era balance. If players don't pick their positions, it is even more obvious that they don't pick their era.

In terms of defense/offense, there's another benchmarking process to go through. Really good feilding at a prime defensive position has to be worth some number X of OPS+ points against a slugging outfielder or since 1973 a DH. That factor X has to be more or less constant across history (it oprobably goes up and down a bit, and we need to think about why it might do so, but it shouldn't vary much, and it certainly shouldn't vary between players. X then gets scaled down to say 50% of X for a really good 3B, 25% of X for a Beckley era 1B, (perhaps 18-20% of X for Beckley who was an OK but not outstanding 1B) etc.

The question then becomes, what's X? If X is 50 points, then an SS hitting 100 is equivalent to an OF hitting 150. We would have a HOM with almost all SS, not just Wagner but all sorts of obscure ones we've hardly heard of.

I think X is somewhere in the 20-25 point range. It can thus elevate Sewell, who played 2/3 of his games at SS, from 109 to about 124, whehnn you compare him with an outfielder. That doesn't quite make the HOM, but it's close.

On the other hand, it elevates Maranville from 82 to at most 107, Mazeroski from 84 to at most 105 (2B <SS) Aparicio from 82 to at most 107, Fox from 94 to 115 and Ozzie from 87 to 112. None of these guys theerfore are serious candidates, though Fox is fairly close.

Trammell goes from 100 to about 132 -- looks the right side of the borderline.

I don't see where this logic is wrong; defense should elevate fielding positions, but only by a finite amount, and not enough to elevate Ozzie or Aparicio to the HOM.

Trammell goes from 110 to 132 -- sorry for typos

> I don't see where this logic is wrong

The defensive abilities of these players are not constant. To put things in electrical terms, you've boosted the DC but aren't measuring the ripple. I know you have a range but 5 points isn't enough.

Also, I've heard of catchers being moved out to less demanding positions but I've never heard of this for 3B. In fact, many catchers are moved TO 3B. If a player can handle 3B (but can't handle SS) they generally stick.

I've never heard of this for 3B

Tony Perez, Dick Allen, Joe Torre (C->3B->1B), Jim Thome.

I'm not sure if guys like Rose, Killebrew, Garvey & Pujols count. Rose & Killebrew moved around so much as to not be great examples and I'm not sure if Garvey/Pujols played enough 3B to qualify as 'sticking'.

Tony Perez, Dick Allen, Joe Torre (C->3B->1B), Jim Thome.

Darrell Evans, too. Does Eddie Mathews count?

Win Shares or WARP already do this. Offense + Defense = Total Value. Of course, you can argue the accuracy of WS and WARP, which we do regularly. But WS and WARP nevertheless seem to be better vehicles for adding O + D together, as opposed to OPS. I could take fielding chances/fielding percentage and then add in the offense. That wouldn't make sense either.

Does Eddie Mathews count?

He could, but at advanced age, almost everyone ends up at 1B. Should that be part of the trend? Honestly, I don't know. George Brett played four seasons at 1B and another three at DH.

I should rephrase, were they moved from 3B because they couldn't handle 3B or because they wanted to get them in the lineup more often by reducing injuries? It's not notably difficult to play everyday at 3B. My guess is if they could still play 3B better than another available option they would stick. Most of the guys mentioned moved because they couldn't handle bunts or because they can't throw accurately. They weren't moved to get them in the lineup more often.

I can't come up with a 3B who could still field that moved to 1B. Scott Spiezio?

Well, that's the essence of the spectrum. That's what the theory says.

I can't come up with a 3B who could still field that moved to 1B. Scott Spiezio?

Jim Thome comes to mind, but I'm guessing he was not a great 3B.

1. Mays (A+) -- Say Willie!

2. Mickey Welch (A) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

4. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought.

5. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

6. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

7. George Sisler (B) – I like the hits, the OPS+ and the batting average.

8. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

9. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

10. George Van Haltren (C+) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

11. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

12. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

13. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane, Byrd and Mullin.

14. Jimmy Ryan ( C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

15. Sam Rice -- 13 more hits and he might be on a lot more ballots.

Minoso, Sewell and Duffy are all in the 20s. Howard is about 40, Aparicio is ahead of Sewell, at about 20 (all those outs keep him off the ballot but he still had a great career and belongs in the upper echelons of the HoVG). I look forward to him joining the ballot as it gets lean in the 80s or early 90s.

1. Willie Mays, OF (n/e). That was easy.
2. Jose Mendez, P (4). Negro League pitcher of the teens and twenties.
3. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (3). Negro League pitcher of the teens and twenties.
4. Nellie Fox, 2B (5). White Sox second baseman of the fifties.
5. Quincy Trouppe, C (6). Negro League catcher of the forties.
6. Billy Pierce, P )(7). White Sox pitcher of the fifties.
7. Minnie Minoso, OF (8). White Sox outfielder of the sixties (mostly).
8. Hugh Duffy, OF (9). Hey, wait a second! What's Hugh Duffy doing here? He was neither a Negro Leaguer nor a White Sock! How did he get on my ballot?
9. Ernie Lombardi, C(10).
10. George Sisler, 1B (11).
11. Luis Aparicio, SS (n/e). Phew! Good thing there was another White Sock to pick from.
12. Mickey Welch, P (12).
13. Ken Boyer, 3B (13).
14. Ralph Kiner, OF (14).
15. Joe Sewell, SS (15).

Necessary Disclosures:
Jake Beckley: I've voted for him before and will again (probably when we elect some back-loggers in the mid-80s). For now, he's sitting 19th.
New Eligibles:
Frank Howard: I'm just not that impressed. We've seen a lot of sluggers who are very good for 2 or 3- Colavito, Maris, Wilson, Klein. Howard is one of the better guys in that bunch (I have him ahead of everybody on that list except for Colavito) but he doesn't distinguish himself enough to get onto my ballot.

Okay, and now for the serious comments:
I've been voting Redding and Mendez back-to-back for awhile, just behind the big newbies like Ernie Banks, Hoyt Wilhelm and Roberto Clemente. There's been a lot of comments about Redding's new numbers but I haven't seen too many hard statistics that would bring him down. However, with the rest of the electorate starting to show significantly more confidence in Mendez' record, I decided to flip them for this election.
I like Fox's defense and consistency at the plate, even if he never hit for power. I haven't looked closely at Trouppe for a number of elections, but the last time I did, I had him significantly ahead of both Mackey (who's in the HoM) and Lombardi (who's not).
Billy Pierce is one of the big reasons I stopped lurking and started voting. When I saw his numbers, I was amazed that he wasn't in the HoF. I can't do much about that other Hall, but I can do my part to help him get into this one.
Minnie Minoso was never among the very best in the game, but he was an All-Star as soon as he entered the majors and was just behind the best for so long that he deserves induction. Hugh Duffy is one of my favorite players from the 1890s. I like the Triple Crown, but I wouldn't vote him in for that alone. The black ink from 1890 to 1897 is what catches my eye.
When I started voting, Ernie Lombardi was actually getting a first place vote from somebody else. Now, I'm worried that I'm his best friend, if not his only friend. I thought about giving him up as a lost cause on the last ballot but when I look at his numbers, I just can't do it. This guy deserves to be enshrined.
This might be George Sisler's year and I have no objections.
I made the case for Maury Wills but Aparicio did the same thing in the other league when it comes to leading his league in steals, and he did it with a slightly better bat and a much, much better glove. Before I looked at the numbers, I thought I was going to have Aparicio in the #2 spot. After looking at the numbers I realized I was over-valuing him so he slipped down to the bottom half of the ballot. But there's no question in my mind that he deserves to be on it.
Mickey Welch, Ken Boyer, Ralph Kiner and Joe Sewell get the same spots they got last year.
If you want more statistical and numerical analysis than that, it's all on my previous ballots, except for the new guys Mays and Fox.

ps. Despite my ballot, I am neither African-American nor a White Sox fan. My voting record just makes it seem that way.

Despite my ballot, I am right handed.

Ernie Lombardi was actually getting a first place vote from somebody else. Now, I'm worried that I'm his best friend, if not his only friend. I thought about giving him up as a lost cause on the last ballot but

...but that would be unconstitutional. You are required to honestly vote for your best 15, even if someone is a lost cause.

...but that would be unconstitutional. You are required to honestly vote for your best 15, even if someone is a lost cause.

I could understand it if Lombardi was at the bottom of Chris' ballot and in a virtual tie with another player, but Lombardi is too high up on his ballot to remove him because of lacking popularity among the electorate. Therefore, I agree with Dan.

BTW Dan, did you get my e-mail?

I thought about giving him up as a lost cause

See "The HOM Constitution vs jimd's Ballot", 1956 election.

1979 ballot, our 82nd

Voting style: I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.


1. WILLIE MAYS - Respected among his peers/fans? Well, he did get picked as an All-Star 20 straight years. The 12 Gold Gloves are nice, plus ranking among the top 6 in MVP voting 12 times. The 15 times in the top 10 in OBP help his case, and the 14 times in the top 5 in slugging say that he had some pop, too (lol). So it's no surprise he has 15 top-6 finishes in adjusted OPS+. The 11 times of at least 160 OPS+ stack up nicely against the competition here, no? Hit just .247 in the postseason, but I think he has enough of a edge to grab the top spot!

(a moment of silence and blank space to mark the unbelievable demarcation here)


2. JAKE BECKLEY - Recent ballot comments haven't swayed me against him.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (twas a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Eddie Mathews had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted.

3. GEORGE SISLER - Jumps ahead of Kiner this year via fielding differential. Some may have downgraded Banks over his comparison to Sisler, but that recognition actually moved Sisler up a slot on my ballot last year and this one. I'm giving a fielding credit based on widespread reputation (I consider pre-1930 fielding stats to be problematic). Not much in that 2nd half of career, I'll admit, hitting or fielding. But the first half was something to see. A slight pitching boost, too.
4. RALPH KINER - Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
5. CUPID CHILDS - Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better. This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support.
6. BILLY PIERCE - Moves up a spot. The leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
7. BOB ELLIOTT - Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details). I've also mulled him vs McGraw, which is a difficult comparison, but Bob wins that, too. Better than HOMer Hack as well.
8. GAVVY CRAVATH - Good to see more discussion of him, but I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
9. MINNIE MINOSO - Moves up 3 spots on the ballot. Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but disappointed to see such negligible Negro Leagues credit. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
10. FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DH on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70. Four other OPS+s over 135. Could move up.
11. BOB JOHNSON - Moved up three spots 2 yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
12. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 2 yrs ago, and have moved him up a little. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
13. RUBE WADDELL - Yeah, not a pitcher-friendly ballot this year. Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. I still think he had some direct impact in costing his team wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, and never led his league in IP and only top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this spot, at least.
14. DICK REDDING - Big drop the last 2 years; the new stats suggest that he wasn't the long-career workhorse that some of us had believed. For me, that's very costly. But think about how many Negro League hitters we have elected/are considering. This still may be the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now guess the HOM won't, either.
15. NELLIE FOX - First time voting for him since - ever? But that core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.


TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his thread 2 yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer - but a long-career one, not a pure-peak one. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
HUGH DUFFY - Win Shares gets him all wrong, and eventually they'll fix it. Excellent fielder, but geesh, he's not Ozzie Smith. As noted on the discussion thread, a non-WS look at the numbers leaves you wondering how he gets so many votes here.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B.

OTHER JUST MISSED
PETE BROWNING - Ran out of room for big sluggers this year. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 regular seasons, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago, but fell just off the ballot 2 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but when the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15 at times.
ROGER BRESNAHAN - A 3rd NY Giant still in the mix. I could use a few more innings at C and not OF, but he was great in OF some years. Had not been on my ballot in many years before recently. Would haved been a better pick than Mackey.

um, not to seem picky, but...

"However, with the rest of the electorate starting to show significantly more confidence in Mendez' record, I decided to flip them for this election."

Is that kosher?
P.S. I'm not really that cantankerous, but since we're on the subject....

Is that kosher?
P.S. I'm not really that cantankerous, but since we're on the subject....

Why wouldn't it be? This case is different from the "lost cause" one.

Dropping a player because of "lost cause" status is unconstitutional because it is strategic voting. Deciding to trust the judgment of the electorate in a doubtful case, in a matter of changing a pair of players from 2-3 to 3-2, isn't a strategic vote but a substantive change in evaluation. When making a judgment call about evidence that is significantly anecdotal, following another judgment that seems reliable is surely a reasonable step to take.

1979 Ballot

1. Mays, Willie – Achieved the third perfect score in my system, joining Wagner and Musial. Without timelining, I’d give the top spot to Wagner, with Musial and Mays tied for second.

2. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

3. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

4. Sisler, George – Has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those stats are dependent on others). Strong adjusted counting stats, and fares quite well in WS. Obviously could hit.

5. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

6. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

7. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

8. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

9. Clarkson, Bus –I don’t know where to put him. If he was born in 1915, it is easier for me to swallow that he couldn’t get out of the minors from ’50-’56. But if he was only 32 in 1950 (normally the back end of a peak), I’ve got some problems with presuming a HoM career when he couldn’t even make a major league roster at age 32. This is a shaky placement, and if he gets closer to election, I'm going to have to look closer.

10. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

11. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon. It might be a mistake to have him behind Wilson, Clarkson and Minoso.

12. Dean, Dizzy – Short career obviously adversely affects his standing.

13. Pierce, Billy – I don’t think he is HoM-worthy, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

14. McGraw, John

15. Welch, Mickey

Required Disclosure(s):

Kiner, Ralph – Jumping from #11 to #4? Is there new information about him? I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. That’s good for #64 in my rankings, just behind Wally Schang and just ahead of Chuck Klein.

Redding, Dick – I was in the downtown library recently and glanced through five or six books about the Negro Leagues. They focused primarily on what a character Redding was. Doesn’t sound like a HoMer to me.

Mendez, Jose –It probably won’t surprise anyone that I’ve got Mendez way off the ballot, given how much I differ from the electorate on Cool Papa and Redding. Though, he’s not in never never land like Redding. I’m committed to giving him another look…eventually, but he’s got a long way to go since he’s #59 in my rankings, between Rizzuto and Zimmerman.

Beckley, Jake -- He’s #40, a little behind Hack Wilson, tied with Urban Shocker, and a nudge ahead of Dave Bancroft.

karlmagnus wrote:

I don't think I accept the validity of "positional balance" as a reason to elevate Boyer or Fox.

I probably wasn't clear enough in my statement. My evaluation of position players starts with win shares and then makes various adjustments for things that either win shares misses or that I think it doesn't weight correctly. I, like most of us, noticed long ago that win shares tends to give more high scores to outfielders than to infielders. I don't think anyone truly knows the "true" positional weights, but it seemed to me that win shares was overvaluing outfielders, so I've long given a small adjustment to boost infielders (and downweight outfielders) from win shares values that seemed a bit biased. After seeing jimd's tabulations of all stars by positions in this week's discussion, I decided that the win shares bias in favor of outfielders is actually larger than I had realized, so in the goal of removing that bias I added more weight to infield positions (especially 2B and 3B) and reduced the weight to the outfield. The adjustments were small, and I'm probably still more outfielder-friendly than the average voter around here. Boyer and Fox benefited because IMO they are the best available 3B and 2B candidates.

I think jimd's tabulations also indicate biases in the WARP positional weights. However, this is all a bit fuzzy and judgmental, because I don't think we can know with any degree of certainty what the "true" positional weights are.

Like sunnyday2, I'm more concerned with era balance than with positional balance, and I have no pre-set quotas of how many players should be elected from each position. It wouldn't bother me a bit if there turn out to be twice as many center fielders as third basemen in the HoM. I just want to make sure my own voting system treats the positions fairly and doesn't inherit any biases of the win shares system on which it is based.

jimd: Thanks for directing me to the 1956 thread.

Chris Cobb: Thanks for defending my decision to flip Mendez and Redding.

Mrphy on Wmson:
That '84 season of Ed's just overrates him considerably if you're using Baseball Reference's park factor (not that it still wasn't a fine, fine season).
. . .
If you're going by a floating park factor for Chicago that year, you will ultimately overrate all players from that team. The park was nothing like it was before of after 1884 in terms of affecting run production.

"floating" - meaning multi-season moving average?

Whose implementation of park factors assigns a single-season factor to Chicago NL 1884? From Pete Palmer, based on the old TB glossary(?) I expect a single-season BPF and PPF.
KJOK may be able to calculate instantly whether that is true (my excuse for moving on).

Marc spake:
> If Big Ed had hit 0 HR in '84 instead of 27, he would probably have done better here.
> If he had been inactive in '84, he would probably have done better here.

That's a flat-out ridiculous statement. How you come to that conclusion escapes me. If he didn't have that season, he's no where near my ballot.

Marc is our man from the Berthold Brecht school, educating us by shock value.

--
48. George Sisler – His imminent election will be a great disappointment to me. I understand how the 4 voters who don’t use sabermetric methods would support him, but I don’t understand how most of the rest of the electorate, who understand that an OPS+ of 124 simply isn’t that impressive for a first baseman, came to view him as one of the 15 best qualified candidates.

True, but Goose and Country waltzed in at 127 and 123 in the corner.

When OCF works his magic with vectors, he might identify clusters of candidates rather than clusters of voters.

As Marc said, regarding Cravath.

Some agree with Mike Emeigh that contemporary testimony is the best assessment of fielding for players before the Retrosheet era. --and some of them are otherwise inclined to sabermetric assessment.

--
> Tony Perez, Dick Allen, Joe Torre (C->3B->1B), Jim Thome.

Darrell Evans, too. Does Eddie Mathews count?

Mathews doesn't count.
The guys Ardo quotes elected Richie Allen, 3B.

Martin Hemmer:
Jim Thome comes to mind, but I'm guessing he was not a great 3B.

Maybe not but I think he is a good example. Without Julio Franco and Eddie Murray, who could play first? The club acquired Matt Williams, then Travis Fryman --it worked at keeping Thome at first.

A moderate tragedy: my hard drive is dead. All of my sabermetric research and literary writing is gone. It would take me many months, if not years, to rebuild my database of work. With classes and work, I simply don't have the time to do it. I am also working out the details (housing, employment, etc.) of an impending move to San Francisco for college.

All of this means that I will not have nearly as much time to devote to the Hall of Merit. I will still turn in a weekly ballot and stand as one of the few voices in the wilderness testifying to the greatness of Charlie Keller. However, I am torn as to how to proceed from here. I have a very specific set of rankings that I arrived at with a certain degree of thoughtfulness. It is all based upon specific adjustments to Win Shares that I can't hope to replicate (see above). I am faced with three options:

1. Use WARP for player rankings from 1980 forward and leave the current eligibles as they are.
2. Overhaul my current rankings and use WARP for every player.
3. Other.

I would like to get your suggestions on this matter.

BTW Dan, did you get my e-mail?

Yes, I did, John. I forwarded the item to Joe, so hopefully he will soon give the green light to you.

James - leave your eligibles where they are - use what you like to move on forward.

About being influenced by others - only do it for good, not evil. Raise someone, don't drop them.

I will not drop Lefty Gomez, no matter how much others don't like him. Only if I am convinced he wasn't great.

I was, however, convinced that I was underrating Biz Mackey, for example.

James,

So long as you keep voting and keep preaching the greatness of Charlie Keller all will be fine with me...

1979 Ballot

1. Willie Mays
2. Jake Beckley; I've been convinced.
3. Bob Johnson
4. Minnie Minoso
5. Charley Jones
6. Ralph Kiner
7. George Van Haltren
8. Ernie Lombardi
9. Jimmy Ryan
10. Dutch Leonard
11. Frank Howard
12. Quiny Trouppe
13. Tommy Bridges
14. Rube Waddell
15. Gavy Cravath; the discussion convinced me to bump him up.

***

16. Sam Rice
17. George Sisler
18. Burleigh Grimes
19. Wally Schang
20. Bucky Walters
21. Bob Elliott

is this vote accredited?

Re. #78: My wife's hard drive recently crashed, too, and then mine (we live in the country where we have regular surges and brown outs).

Lesson #1: Get UPS.

Lesson #2: BACK UP YOUR FILES EVERYBODY!!!

BTW, it is possible to recover data from your hard drive but my sources tell me the cost is prohibitive, probably in excess of 4 figures. For my HoM data, too bad. If James is really a "literary writer," and he says he is, then it might be worth it.

Re. #82 and 83: What rawagman said.

"floating" - meaning multi-season moving average?

Yes, Paul.

Marc is our man from the Berthold Brecht school, educating us by shock value.

:-)

Whose implementation of park factors assigns a single-season factor to Chicago NL 1884?

Win Shares does for 19th century parks.


is this vote accredited?

Vaux's? He could have made some more comments about the players on his ballot and comments for any '78 top-ten returnees that he left off, but his ballot looks fine beyond that. If you could add the missing items, Vaux, that would be great.

A moderate tragedy: my hard drive is dead. All of my sabermetric research and literary writing is gone. It would take me many months, if not years, to rebuild my database of work.

Sorry about that, James. My slave hard drive conked out on me a couple of weeks ago, so I know how you feel. Fortunately, everything on that drive was either of no consequence to myself or was already copied on a CD-RW. I originally thought it was my master drive, which would have killed me since I haven't backed up my files as diligently as I should have.

1. Use WARP for player rankings from 1980 forward and leave the current eligibles as they are.
2. Overhaul my current rankings and use WARP for every player.
3. Other.

I would like to get your suggestions on this matter.

Personally, I would go with #2.

BTW, everyone, make sure that your computer is connected to a surge protector. An electrical surge is what destroyed my hard drive. You can get a good one for $15, so don't be a cheapskate! :-)

48. George Sisler – His imminent election will be a great disappointment to me. I understand how the 4 voters who don’t use sabermetric methods would support him, but I don’t understand how most of the rest of the electorate, who understand that an OPS+ of 124 simply isn’t that impressive for a first baseman, came to view him as one of the 15 best qualified candidates.

I agree he's not the best candidate available and I have him near the bottom of my ballot, but would you agree that he's not your typical OPS+ of 124 hitter?

"However, with the rest of the electorate starting to show significantly more confidence in Mendez' record, I decided to flip them for this election."

Is that kosher?

That's reasonable. I have done the same thing myself when two players on my ballot were that close.

BTW, it is possible to recover data from your hard drive but my sources tell me the cost is prohibitive, probably in excess of 4 figures.

That's about right, Marc. Nothing on my hard drive is worth a "cool" grand.

ok - I'll count Vaux's vote in my tallying - more comments next time please - maybe a brief description of how you vote.
Welcome.

>>BTW Dan, did you get my e-mail?

>Yes, I did, John. I forwarded the item to Joe, so hopefully he will soon give the green light to you.

Jeez, the suspense is killin' me.

>>2. Overhaul my current rankings and use WARP for every player.

>Personally, I would go with #2.

Hopefully not WARP3.

Personally I would go with WS or OPS+/ERA+ first....

>BTW, everyone, make sure that your computer is connected to a surge protector. An electrical surge is what destroyed my hard drive. You can get a good one for $15, so don't be a cheapskate! :-)

But a surge strip doesn't help with brownouts--both of our computers were on surge strips--and browns will fry a drive too. UPS costs about $60-70, check out Belkin Web site.

Some agree with Mike Emeigh that contemporary testimony is the best assessment of fielding for players before the Retrosheet era. --and some of them are otherwise inclined to sabermetric assessment.

Contemporary testimony (in any era, not just the pre-Retro era) is part of sabermetric assessment, as I define the term. It's part of the body of evidence, just as much as are Fielding WS, FRAA, UZR, or what have you. The amount of weight you give to each piece of evidence will drive your conclusion.

I put more weight on contemporary testimony going back in time because (a) fielding statistics, as a rule, become less reliable the further back you go (no one paid much attention to them, and even in contemporary times we can't be sure of their reliability; I've found what seem to be errors in fielding statistics as recently as 1978), and (b) the methods used to massage those fielding statistics into a quantative rating are of uncertain accuracy and are themselves often highly subjective.

-- MWE

My #1 and #2 were elected. Old exhibits reprised for GVH and Bresnahan. Willie Mays is unanimous in 1979, while Luis Aparicio and Frank Howard take on the backlog. A bumper crop comes on in 1980; we elect three from Kaline, Santo, Marichal, Cash and Cepeda. In 1981 Gibson and Killebrew breach the doors of the HoM, while Pinson joins the glut.

1) Willie Mays – In second grade I used his name as a homonym for maze, unaware at the time of the word maize.

2) George Van Haltren (3,2,1) – Now in free fall. In six years, 1972 to 1978, he went from the #1 unelected player to #15. Why? Now in his 71st year eligible. His day may come, eventually. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton
2—443 G. Van Haltren

Players with 2900 times on base 1889-1901:
1—3392 B. Hamilton
2—3134 G. Van Haltren
3—3046 J. Burkett
4—3043 E. Delahanty

3) George Sisler (4,3,2) – Is our long national nightmare over after 44 elections? The problem I have with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This should eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of ballot timing. I think George is still among the top 230 players in history, which is HoMer territory. This may not be the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2500+ hits through 1980:

1—3418 C. Anson
2—2930 J. Beckley
3—2812 G. Sisler
4—2721 L. Gehrig
5—2646 J. Foxx

4) Tommy Leach (5,4,3) – Holding steady, finished mid-20’s for the seventh straight year. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker
11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

5) Edd Roush (6,5,4) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Trying to avoid Lost Cause status, he climbed another notch last year, with his first top-20 finish since 1951, when he was still a Shiny New Toy. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat
8—.864 E. Roush

6) Minnie Minoso (7,6,5) - A kind of player I like more than most voters, a durable, five-tool talent. By win shares, he’s very similar to Hack and Grich. Long prime, fine peak (3 years +30 WS, adjusted to 162 G). Career total 356 AWS. I figure he gets an extra three full years of credit (~60 WS), not simply due to the years he was denied opportunity, but also due to the retardant effects his skin color and his war service had on his development. YMMV.

7) Roger Bresnahan (8,7,6) – Only about nine voters have much regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .380, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker
4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas
8—.386 N. Lajoie
9—.382 M. Huggins

8) Jimmy Ryan (9,8,7) – As a SNT he finished ahead of six HoMers; the order in the teens was Duffy-Ryan-GVH-Beckley. Usually trailing those guys were Caruthers-Pearce-Pike-Jennings-Griffith. To those 13 voters who had GVH in their top eleven last ballot, how do you justify snubbing Ryan? Players averaging more than 45 extra-base hits per season 1888-98:
1—549 E. Delahanty
2—507 J. Ryan
3—502 J. Beckley
4—497 S. Thompson
Most outfielder Assists, 1876-1918
1—375 J. Ryan
2—348 G. VanHaltren
3—348 Tom Brown
4—307 J. Sheckard
5—289 O. Shaffer
6—285 K. Kelly
7—283 S. Thompson

9) Jake Beckley (10,9,8) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples may be a product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Players who compiled a BA over .290, from seasonal age 30 on, 1876-1920, minimum 4500 PA after age 30:
1—.324 C. Anson
2—.320 H. Wagner
3—.320 N. Lajoie
4—.310 J. Beckley
5—.308 J. O’Rourke
6—.306 J. Ryan
7—.306 R. Connor
8—.304 P. Donovan
9—.297 F. Clarke
10- .296 D. White
11- .292 P. Hines

10) Wally Schang (11,10,9) – There’s not a dime’s worth of difference between him and Bresnahan. He’s still on the radar. Players with OBP of .380+, 1915-29, 5600+ PA:
1—.475 B. Ruth
2—.439 T. Cobb
3—.436 R. Hornsby
4—.435 T. Speaker
5—.427 E. Collins
6—.412 H. Heilmann
7—.399 J. Sewell
8—.398 W. Schang
9—.393 K. Williams
10-.381 G. Sisler

11) Burleigh Grimes (12,11,11) – Comparable to Wynn. Has the heft I like in a career. Pitchers with 3750+ IP, 1916-75. The top ten are all HoMers, nearly:

1—5244 W. Spahn
2—4689 R. Roberts
3—4564 E. Wynn
4—4344 R. Ruffing
5—4180 B. Grimes
6—4161 T. Lyons
7—3941 L. Grove
8—3897 E. Rixey
9—3884 B. Gibson
10—3827 B. Feller
11—3762 W. Hoyt
12—3760 J. Bunning
13—3759 B. Newsom

12) Charlie Keller (13,13,14) - Recent discussion highlights how he had a long, really high prime. I give full credit for missed war time. His last minor league year was also of great value, he gets credit there, too.

13) Cupid Childs (14,14,15) – I’ve voted for him six times previously: 1914-15, 1942 and 1976-78. The backlog added since 1940 has finally played itself out. Players with OBP over .400, 1876-1924 (6000+ PA):
1--.455 B. Hamilton
2--.433 T. Cobb
3--.431 T. Speaker
4--.423 D. Brouthers
5--.421 E. Collins
6--.416 C. Childs
7--.415 J. Burkett
8--.413 R. Thomas
9--.411 E. Delahanty
10--.402 J. Kelley

14) Ralph Kiner (15,15,--) – Hangs on to ballot spot. I’ve never seen him on any “questionable hall of famers” survey. NBJHBA rates him ~#171. Like Keller, a long, high prime. Could move up.

15) Dobie Moore (--,12,12) – Returns to ballot. Might be as good as Vaughan; if there is one overlooked Negro leaguer that still haunts me it’s him. I don’t think the HOF seriously considered his pre NeL play.

Top tenners off ballot: Redding, Mendez. As you may know, I have always been a bit skeptical of NeLers translated numbers; I am not so quick to assume superstardom from them as most voters. In fact, I have a suspicion that some of their lofty ranking is due to the fact that, because most of their analysis was the work of others, voters are unable to justify a downgrading.

Duffy was a regular on my ballot until 30 years ago and may return someday. I’ve never voted for Sewell, the “position-era domination” argument doesn’t do much for me.

But a surge strip doesn't help with brownouts--both of our computers were on surge strips--and browns will fry a drive too. UPS costs about $60-70, check out Belkin Web site.

My solution is to use a "flash" drive or memory stick and save all my important baseball stuff on it. I carry it where I go, and if I add files to it away from work, then I just copy/paste its files to the home computer when I get back. It's actually great because I can be chatting up a basebaall person and show them what I'm working on very easily.

>>2. Overhaul my current rankings and use WARP for every player.

>Personally, I would go with #2.

Hopefully not WARP3.

Personally I would go with WS or OPS+/ERA+ first....

I meant #1, BTW.

But a surge strip doesn't help with brownouts--both of our computers were on surge strips--and browns will fry a drive too. UPS costs about $60-70, check out Belkin Web site.

My solution is to use a "flash" drive or memory stick and save all my important baseball stuff on it. I carry it where I go, and if I add files to it away from work, then I just copy/paste its files to the home computer when I get back. It's actually great because I can be chatting up a basebaall person and show them what I'm working on very easily.

I'll look into both, guys. Thanks!

Personally I would go with WS or OPS+/ERA+ first....

That would also be my personal preference over using WARP.

BTW, it is possible to recover data from your hard drive but my sources tell me the cost is prohibitive, probably in excess of 4 figures.

Not necessarily that expensive. Although I had my hard drive backed up, my most recent complete backups were about a month old. A friend of mine who is an IT professional recovered all the information from the ruined hard drive. It took him only a short time to retrieve the data, although probably would have cost me one or two hundred dollars if he had charged me.

A friend of mine who is an IT professional

Its fun to have one of those! :-)

If I'm feeling really lazy, but still sufficiently paranoid, I'll zip up my baseball stuff and mail it to myself. Google/Yahoo give you a full gig of space and I find my hard-to-duplicate baseball stuff is fairly compact compared to stuff like pictures/movies/music.

I've been concentrating on PRAA/BRAA/FRAA with adjustments to balance out the positions (especially for FRAA) and I like the results. I also throw in a "career" bonus with the replacement numbers but it isn't a big chunk.

Ah, the "baseball stuff" on the hard drive. At some point in time we should pool our stuff together somewhere. Until then, we'll have to endure those strange looks from our spouses, along with the muttered asides, "You're such a dork."