Chris Cobb's ballot:

1980 Ballot (A Day Early)

I am moving tomorrow and will be occupied with the (long-distance) move for the next two weeks, so I am posting this early to the comments thread. John, if you could move it to the ballot thread when you have a chance, that would be great! I may not be entirely incommunicado, but I will be without my computer and all my HoM files, so I won’t have much to say until about the balloting for 1981 begins.

Strongest entering class we’ve seen in a long time! Three new arrivals make my ballot, and a lot of shifting takes place as I bring my integration of WARP1 up to the present. I suspect I am overrating shortstops right now at the expense of other infielders, so I’ll be fine-tuning my infielder rankings for next year. Not that it will matter to the outcome, as Gibson and Killebrew gain eligibility and the fast track to election . . .

1. Al Kaline (n/e). Even with so many injuries, he had a great career. James left him out of his top 100, and that may have been the right choice, but it may not: I see him as between 85-115 all time.
2. Ron Santo (n/e). One of the top 10 third basemen of all time.
3. Rabbit Maranville (2). Why isn’t he on more ballots?? An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
4. Jose Mendez (4). Pretty much holding steady with the best pitching peak among eligibles.
5. Dick Redding (3). Slips behind Maranville and now Mendez among 1910s & early 20s stars. I’d happily elect him, but I see him as slightly less brilliant than the three above. Recently published data has raised questions about his career value. I haven’t had a chance to review the data, but I think it’s just as well that we will have a few years of shoo-ins coming up so that we can chew over that data before Redding reaches the cusp of election.
6. Dave Bancroft (9). Top beneficiary of my reexamination of WARP and fielding value. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
7. Charlie Keller (19). Bursts onto my ballot. I no longer see reason to deny the fact that both WARP and win shares, with appropriate war credit, show him as having both the best peak available (no war credit included) and respectable career value.
8. Minnie Minoso (18). After having done a blanket downgrade of outfielders, I’m doing a targeted raising of them this year as I get my expanded system into shape. As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s, so he comes back onto the ballot.
9. Joe Sewell (15) Very strong prime with very good defense at shortstop and very good offense gets him onto the board.
10. Billy Pierce (8). Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is about to gain momentum.
11. Juan Marichal (n/e). Significantly overrated historically, but still a HoMer. Despite the number of innings he threw, he is a peak, not a career, candidate.
12. Herman Long (6). Like Maranville, he tracks upward as I place more weight on infield defense.
13. Jake Beckley (12). Well, look who else benefits from my reassessment of first-base defense! No great years, but with his defense properly credited, he was steadily an above-average player for a very long time.
14. Tommy Leach. (12). Greater credit for fielding brings him back onto the ballot.
15. Ralph Kiner (7). Great peak versus strong competition. More peak than Cravath, but a bit less prime.

The next 15

16. Rube Waddell
17. Charley Jones
18. Alejandro Oms
19. Edd Roush
20. Norm Cash (n/e). Better than I realized; probably deserving of election. His fluke 1961 probably leads to the rest of his career being undervalued: that season so dwarfs his performance in any other year that people conclude his other seasons were totally ordinary but they were better than that. I’m ranking him a bit more conservatively in light of the discussion, but I still prefer him to Cepeda and Howard.
21. Gavvy Cravath (5). Slips a lot in reconsideration that includes WARP’s lukewarm assessment of him. May reconsider the way I am using WARP, as it seems to overboost the top fielders and overpenalize the poor fielders. Averaging with win shares, which doesn’t count fielding enough, helps some, but I’m not sure I have the right balance yet.
22. Ken Boyer (30). Revised him upwards: WARP likes his defense, and the historical record doesn’t contradict that view. Probably worthy of induction.
23. Nellie Fox (14). Drops on further review, but probably worthy of induction. The big question is: just how valuable was second base defense, 1955-65?
24. Cupid Childs (16). Drops as I let some outfielders rise back up. I’m still waffling on him after 70 elections . . .
25. Bus Clarkson. Sunnyday2’s comments on the lost generation of African-American stars puts Clarkson back on my radar.
26. Bucky Walters (15). Drops significantly in integrated assessment using WARP.
27. Frank Howard (22). Win shares really likes him, but WARP doesn’t so much. His case is much like Cravath’s above. Less well-rounded than anyone else in the vicinity of the ballot, but also the best pure power hitter. Peak is only slightly lower than Ralph Kiner’s or George Sisler’s, who are on the ballot.
28. Ben Taylor
29. Urban Shocker
30. Lave Cross

Returning Consensus Top 10 not on my ballot:

Hugh Duffy: a borderline outfielder candidate in a period long on outfielders. I can see giving Duffy some extra credit beyond his stats for his team’s outperforming their stats, but that should only go so far. He’s in the 40-50 range in my rankings. I think Duffy is being seriously overvalued by the electorate, and it would be a mistake to elect him.

Nellie Fox: I’ve dropped him down a bit this year as I have moved some outfielders back up, but I wouldn’t oppose his election.

Ken Boyer: Still off my ballot, but he has jumped up ahead of Fox this year; he would be a reasonable choice for the HoM at some point.

Dobie Moore: an excellent peak, but not high enough or long enough to offset his lack of career value. I somewhat prefer several other contemporary shortstops. Moore is just outside my top 30.

Other new candidates of note:

Orlando Cepeda: I’m not as impressed as some voters are, but he’s not all that deep in my backlog. I haven’t had time to set my new rankings precisely below the top 30, which Cepeda doesn’t crack, but I think he makes the top 40. I’ll be interested to see how he fares this year.

Kaline underrated outside Detroit – easy 1st balloter. Santo sabermetric fave, but somewhat overrated by them – on the ballot, but only just above Childs. Cash better than Cepeda but short career, just below the Howard/Kiner/Wilson group. Cepeda – interpolate between Howard and Beckley and Cepeda’s just below the line, so just off ballot.. Marichal significantly better and longer career than Drysdale, hence just below Rube, and could be just above (longer career.) McAuliffe good but short career – just off the bottom.

1. (N/A) Al Kaline. Similar to Beckley but a touch better. Better than Clemente, too. 3007 hits (fewer than adjusted Beckley) OPS+ 134 TB+BB/PA .528 TB+BB/Outs .807. Easy 1st balloter, but only modest margin above Jake.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve just elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

8. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

9. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13-14-13) Rube Waddell Few places up for 1898-1900 work in minor leagues. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, and UER were high but not exceptional.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A) Ron Santo OPS+ 125, which becomes about 135 equivalent for an OF. 2254 hits. TB+BB/PA .520, TB+BB/Outs .777. Just a touch better than Childs, equivalent position, slightly longer career.

13. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

14. (N/A) Juan Marichal. 243-142 and 122 ERA+ and 3507IP – don’t see what’s to dislike. Significant touch better than Drysdale, who was better than Koufax. 200 IP and 3 ERA points better than Pierce.

15. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-15) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

17. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.

18. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

19. (N/A) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

23. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

24. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays

25. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.

26. Orlando Cepeda Medium career 2351 hits at OPS+ of 133, TB+BB/PA .523, TB+BB/Outs .764. Not as good as Howard/Kiner, but longer career.

27. Norm Cash Short career 1820 hits OPS+ 139. TB+BB/PA .546 TB+BB/Outs .842 Better than Cepeda, but shorter career

28. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
29. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
30. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
31. (N/A) Mickey Vernon
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Billy Pierce.
34. Sal Maglie.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. (N/A-11-12-15-14-N/A) Joe Sewell. Down a bit on Gordon comparison.
39. Bob Elliott
40. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
41. (N/A) Dick Lundy
42. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
43. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
44. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
45. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. TB+BB/PA .469, TB+BB/Outs .765, not overwhelming for the 90s.
46. Kiki Cuyler
47. Deacon McGuire
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Curt Simmons
58. Roger Bresnahan.
59. Wayte Hoyt.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Gil Hodges
62. Jules Thomas.
63. Wilbur Cooper
64. Bruce Petway.
65. Jack Clements
66. Bill Monroe
67. Jose Mendez
68. Herb Pennock
69. Chief Bender
70. Ed Konetchy
71. Jesse Tannehill
72. Bobby Veach
73. Lave Cross
74. Tommy Leach.
75. Tom York

1980 ballot

PHOM: Ron Santo, Al Kaline, Juan Marichal (Bobby Doerr and Quincey Trouppe head up my PHOM backlog)

1.Ron Santo (x, PHOM) – Of the three newbies Santo has not only the best peak but also a strong prime and the best ranking within his position. He is one of the 6-7 best 3B of all-time as it stands right now. Of course Cabrera, Wright, ARod and company could change that.

2.Al Kaline (x, PHOM) – I am a peak voter but my way of measuring peak is a little different from most. While I use 3 and 5 year totals, I prefer to take what a player earned over a really high baseline like 8 WARP or 25 WS. In this method, players with long, fairly low peaks can still do well, guys like Earl Averill and Al Kalline. Add to that his 400+ career WS and Kaline is an easy choice for the HOM.

3.Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board. If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

4.Juan Marichal (x, PHOM) – A high peak pitcher with plenty of career IP. What is not to like? Was he as good as his reputation suggests? No, but neither are most of his contemporaries. I have him a bit above Bunning, Ford, and Drysdale, who would rank about 7th on this ballot.

5.Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) – I am pretty sure that Childs has been in my top five every years since sometime in the 1940’s. He had a great peak and decent career length for a MIer of his era. Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

6.Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

7.Dick Redding (5, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

8.Ralph Kiner (6¸ PHOM) – Seven straight HR titles is impressive no matter what the context. Kiner has a great peak, however I prefer Keller’s combination of OBP and decent defense to Kiner’s power.

9.Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM. Slightly better than Sisler in the peak department and I give Gorgeous George little credit for his post 1922 years.

10.Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too.

11.Pete Browning (9, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me.

12.Quincey Trouppe (10) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

13.Dizzy Dean (11) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and may have even been a worse hitter. Still HOM worthy, however.

14.Rube Waddell (12) – I have him about even with Mendez but a little ahead based partly on a 15 point advantage in career ERA+ for Rube. However, he is the best player ever to leave an MLB game in order to chase a fire truck in all of baseball history.

15.Elston Howard (13) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.


16-20 Boyer, Cravath, Mendez, Rosen, Oms
21-25 GVH, Pierce, Bresnahan, Fox, F. Howard
26-30 Berger, Elliot, Willis, Cepeda, Lundy
31-35 Newcombe, Roush, Rizzuto, Monroe, Minoso
36-40 Burns, Veach, Doyle, Sewell, Shocker
41-45 Wilson, Bancroft, McGraw, Chance, R. Thomas
46-50 Leach, Johnson, Stephens, Cash, Traynor

Required Disclosures
Mendez – Just of ballot and roughly equal to #14 Rube Waddell
Fox – Has moved up a little, of the great field and little hit MIers, he seems to be my favorite
Minoso – Very good players, but I just don’t see him as that different from a host of other corner outfield candidates like George Burns, Bobby Veach, and even Bob Johnson. If his NeL and MiL numbers were better he would have my support.
Sewell – Again I don’t’ see anything special. Being the best AL SS of the 1920’s does not make one better than Phil Rizzuto.
Beckely – Not even close, he was never one of his league’s top 10 players.

Newbies
Cepeda and Cash – I have Cepeda slightly ahead based on peak, however I see a career argument for Cash. I am not sure that either are better than Frank Howard, let alone deserving HOMers.
McAuliffe – Just outside my top 50, very close to Maury Wills. Fine player but certainly not a HOMer.

I'll vote early this week since I won't be at work.

1) Al Kaline - looks pretty similar to Clemente
2) Ron Santo - more value per inning than Kaline but Al played 600 extra games
3) Bob Johnson - I like him better than a chunk of the already elected from his era
4) Billy Pierce - One more pitcher needed from the 50's, it's him.
5) Norm Cash - platoon issues lead me to drop him a little but he could hit and field. I really like that in a player.
6) Orlando Cepeda - slugger, too bad he played so much 1B when he was more valuable in LF
7) Ken Boyer - Great all-around player, good peak and there aren't that many long career 3B
8) Ralph Kiner - Packed more into a short period of time than anyone else on here
9) Bob Elliott - looks good compared to Boyer and Santo
10) Juan Marichal - I might be underrating a tiny bit this ballot because I didn't consider his 12 strong postseason innings. I like Pierce v. his era better than Marichal v. his era.
11) Charlie Keller - Another great one for rate seasons
12) Tommy Bridges - the war era is really short of pitching in the HoM
13) Dutch Leonard - ditto
14) Jake Beckley - Best player available before 1900. 1B was harder to play than CF.
15) Quincy Trouppe - HoM is short a catcher in the war era also
16-20) Trucks, Sewell, Minoso, F Howard, Bartell
21-25) D Moore, J Mendez, C Klein, Waddell, Cravath
26-30) Quinn, Leach, Shocker, Hilton Smith, Roush

1980 ballot
isn’t it great when your 1 and 2 make the hall in the same year
Marichal, Kaline and Santo make my PHOM

1. Joe Sewell love the strikeouts (made my personal HoM in 1939)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
4. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
5. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
6. Juan Marichal (makes my personal HoM this year)
7. Al Kaline needed a better peak (makes my personal HoM this year)
8. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
9. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
10. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
11. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
12. Ron Santo great hitter (not HoM material though) better fielder <u>led in putouts 7 times 6 in a row I guess 3rd base putouts have nothing to with great fielding </u> (makes my personal HoM this year)
13. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
14. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
15. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
16. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
17. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
18. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortsops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
19. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
20. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
21.Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
22. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
23. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
24. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
25. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
26. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
27. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
28. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
29. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year
30. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
31. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times moved up when I compared him to Cepada
32. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
35. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
36. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
37. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
38. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
39. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Dobie Moore and Jose Mendez barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Norm Cash similar to Gil Hodges plus 1961

led in putouts 7 times 6 in a row I guess 3rd base putouts have nothing to with great fielding

If you believe Bill James, they don't. I don't go quite *that* far, but I think they don't mean much except in the odd case; they're largely a function of foul territory in the home ballpark. Santo might be one of the odd cases, in that Wrigley doesn't have that much foul territory.

I don't want to clutter the ballot thread with this discussion, so I'll post a comment in the Santo thread and it can be discussed there.

-- MWE

1980

1. Al Kaline (-)--He’s good.

2. Ron Santo (-)--Him too.

3. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. Keep hope alive! (1927)

4. Charley Jones (3)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

5. Cupid Childs (4)--Where has the love for Cupid gone? (1938)

6. Tommy Leach (5)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

7. Juan Marichal (-)--Very good peak and decent career value for a pitcher. I like him better than any 60s pitcher thus far.

8. Minnie Minoso (6)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates. (1979)

9. Larry Doyle (7)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

10. George Sisler (8)--Good peak, good career value, underrepresented position.(1958)

11. Edd Roush (9)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s.

12. Ken Boyer (10)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

13. Joe Sewell (11)--From almost elected to weirdly underrated, but he'll get in eventually. (1976)

14. Hugh Duffy (12)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

15. George Van Haltren (13)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

16. Jose Mendez (14) (1972)
17. Carl Mays (15) (1968)
(Max Carey)
18. Alejandro Oms (16)
(Richie Ashburn)
(Sam Thompson)
19. Ralph Kiner (17)
20. Nellie Fox (18)
(Joe Medwick)
(Earl Averill)
21. Frank Howard (19)
(Joe Gordon)
(Bobby Doerr)
22. Quincy Trouppe (20)
(Red Faber)
23. Bob Elliott (21)
(Red Ruffing)
24. Bucky Walters (22)
25. Wally Berger (23)
(Ted Lyons)
26. Dick Redding (24)
27. Ed Williamson (25)
28. Dobie Moore (26)
29. Norm Cash (-)
30. Orlando Cepeda (-)
(Bob Lemon)

Sean, Sisler got elected last year. Should we move everyone up? Roush #10 to Mendez #15?

Uh, yeah. Sisler got elected. . . I knew that.

I can repost if someone wants to delete the mistaken ballot, or all the tabulators can adjust themselves. . . .

I'll let John Murphy speak for "all the tabulators" but for myself I'm OK with it. Roush #10 through Mendez #15.

Murphy didn't vote yet?

Murphy didn't vote yet, although he was arround to open the thread and transfer Chris Cobb's ballot.. With Chris Cobb and DL from MN up front, the order is a little different this week. I expect that votes may be a little slow coming in until after the holiday is over.

Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. AL KALINE, RF. 43 POW, 141 WARP1, 395 RCAP & .651 OWP in 11,597 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Ranks high in every single measure I use.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. RON SANTO, 3B. 45 POW, 118 WARP1, 200 RCAP & .588 OWP in 9,396 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not quite as good as McGraw in top seasons, but played more/longer to be very close in relative value vs. 3rd base peers.

6. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

7. JUAN MARICHAL, P.28 POW, 90 WARP1, 252 RSAA, 206 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 122 ERA+ in 3,507 innings. Just slightly better than Pierce.

8. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

9. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

10. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

11. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

12. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

13. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

14. JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps, only a little better. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

15. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

ORLANDO CEPEDA, 1B. 19 POW, 90 WARP1, 224 RCAP & .631 OWP in 8,695 PAs. Def: FAIR. Doesn’t match up favorably relative to peers as much as Chance/Cash/Taylor/Beckley.

RETURNEES:

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Tiernan’s edge in offense.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

BOB ELLIOTT, 3B. 21 POW, 90 WARP1, 241 RCAP & .610 OWP in 8,190 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. 3rd best 3rd baseman in 1930-59 timeframe.

DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

Orlando Cepeda - slugger, too bad he played so much 1B when he was more valuable in LF

And Cepeda himself was at least as much to blame as management. Steve Treder told the story in this article at hardballtimes.com on the 1960s Giants.

I remember that article; loved it for its powerful point of view.
Has anyone ever disputed parts of it?

1980 Ballot

1. Al Kaline: now this is sustained excellence. Later in his career he was a defensive
liability, but that doesn't make him not an HOMer.
2. Jake Beckley
3. Bob Johnson
4. Minnie Minoso
5. Norm Cash: a tough call in some ways; he sat against some lefties, and there is the
corked-bat thing, but I don't think that could be any more influential than today's thin
handles, which are regarded as just fine. An above-average hitter for his whle career,
which lasted a long time and has a fine, if slightly unspectacular peak. He's somewhat like
Minoso, but with that one incredible year. He's definitely a top-15 for me.
6. Charley Jones
7. Ralph Kiner
8. George Van Haltren
9. Ernie Lombardi
10. Jimmy Ryan
11. Dutch Leonard
12. Frank Howard
13. Quiny Trouppe
14. Ron Santo: a nice, and fairly sustained peak at a weak position, while seemingly a good
defender also. The weight I put on career-length might hurt him a little, but he gets some
benefit of the doubt from me due to the circumstances, both the obvious medical one and the
controversy brought about by his exercising of the 10/5 right. And he lost it so fast that
it might have just been a bad season; he'd had one before. He's a top-15 without much
trouble.
15. Tommy Bridges

***
16. Juan Marichal: it's a nice peak, and I'm happier with his career length than before.
17. Rube Waddell
18. Orlando Cepeda: what to do with him? His peak years are obviously really good, but he
was in his league's top 10 in OPS+ "only" seven times, and he was a part-timer by age 33.
The good part of his career is good enough that he will probably break into my top fifteen
eventually.
19. Gavy Cravath
20. Sam Rice
21. Burleigh Grimes
22. Wally Schang
23. Bucky Walters
24. Bob Elliott
25. Billy Pierce

***

I've given some thought to the pitcher-position player disparity in the HOM, and whether I should re-evaluate pitchers, especially in the area of career length. Perhaps I'm being unfair in demanding something from pre-'80s pitchers that was rarer than HOM-quality pitchers are. The careers of Marichal, Bridges, and Billy Pierce were quite long for their day. But I don't want to demote any of the current backlog; Marichal is an "honest" 16 on my list even with re-evaluation.

Vaux: How many games, exactly, did Santo have to play not to be a "short career" guy?
I've tended to think that all-time top 10 guys would fare well in the "career" part, for example...

Here come the 80's. A really great group of newbies this year. Kaline is a sure-fire #1 and Santo is easily in the PHOM. Cool Papa Bell also catches up to my vote and joins my immortals. About the other new guys, in the order I ranked them:
Cepeda - joins the ranks at 11 on the ballot. 5th in line for my PHOM. He was good.
Marichal - comes up at 21. I explain his placement more in the list. I did think he'd rate higher, but I think 21 is more consistent with my method. I may be slightly undervalueing pitchers as a group, so I'll have to look into that for future elections.
Cash - one year a peak does not make. But he was good. 29th
McAuliffe - I really thought that he'd make my consideration set. But ultimately, I prefer the career gloves of Maranville and Peckinpaugh and the all around games of Solly Hemus and Travis Jackson at the bottom of my SS consideration set (17 games currently eligible. For a SS with a glove like Dick's you gotta <u>rake</u>.

1)Al Kaline - What can I say about Kaline? 4.5 tool player. I don't know if he was the fastest runner, but he swiped 137 career bases at a 68% clip. Nearly a .300 career hitter, over 3000 hits, great defender, 399 homers - never hit 30 in a year, but 25-29 7 times. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM)
4)Ron Santo - Baseball-reference's comps for. Ages 21-26, Santo was Adrian Beltre. He retired as Al Kaline. Aren't cops fun? He strikes me as something like a cross between Rolen and Chavez. More than good enough for my PHOM. (PHOM)
5)Gavvy Cravath - I'll have to think up a new comment for Judge Gavvy. (PHOM)
6)Joe Sewell - What a batting eye! (PHOM)
7)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
((7a)Cool Papa Bell - and finally off my board)) (PHOM)
8)Jose Mendez - Can I really not think of anything witty to say?
((8a)Willard Brown - I had been underestimating him severely. His reputation enhances his already wonderful numbers.))
9)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime and glove than Beckley. This ranking may be an understatement.
10)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder.
11)Orlando Cepeda - Maintained a high level of excellence at the plate. Strikes me that he was quite a good 1B. I'd like to know what the Giants pitchers were like in terms of tendencies in his time there (I'll post that to his thread)
12)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
13)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
14)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher
((14a)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
15)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
16)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
((16a)Don Drysdale - Not yet, DD))
17)Nellie Fox - Low OPS+, but he is an exception to that measurement. SLG is negligible for him, he did quite well with the rest
18)Ken Boyer - so close. Still my highest ranking 3B. At least for now.
19)Wally Berger - super-underrated
20)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
21)Juan Marichal - I think he's very comparable to DD, hence they're ranked only slightly apart. I sometimes get the feeling that I have short-shrifted both of them. But I still feel that Tommy Bridges was better (more meritorious than both - see ERA+, DERA, "stuff" and very comparable ink scores. If I'm underrating Marichal and DD, I am undervalueing pitchers. SOmething to look into.
22)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
23)Ernie Lombardi - deense was below average, but not quite horrible
24)Roger Bresnahan
25)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
26)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
27)Chuck Klein
((27a)Joe Gordon - neither here nor there. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
28)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges
29)Norm Cash - nice player. His freak season just happens to be the season he admittedly corked. Even without that admission, he wouldn't ballot, but it moves him below Beckley on my 1B charts and 9 spots down the overall order of things. Lack of ink puts me off, as well
30)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
31)Pete Browning
32)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
33)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
34)Cupid Childs
35)Phil Rizzuto
36)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
((36a)Jim Bunning - Not convinced. He had merits, but not enough for balloting.))
37)John McGraw
38)Jimmy Ryan
39)Alejandro Oms
40)Luke Easter
41)Johnny Evers
42)Pete Reiser
43)George Kell
44)Bobby Veach
45)Bob Elliott
46)Bucky Walters
47)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
48)Fred Dunlap
49)Jim Bottomley
50)Bob Johnson
51)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
52)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough (not anything) surrounding it.
53)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for prue "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
54)Tony Lazerri
55)Dolf Camilli
56)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
57)Johnny Pesky
58)Hippo Vaughn
59)Tip O'Neill
60)Rocky Colavito
61)Denny Lyons
62)Cecil Travis - 2nd all-time for most war credit (Ted Williams). 4 years is a lot of credit.
63)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
64)Lon Warneke
65)Don Newcombe
66)Jack Clements
67)Cy Williams
68)Roger Maris
69)Pie Traynor
70)Frank Chance
71)Kiki Cuyler
72)Red Schoendienst
73)John Clapp
74)Larry Doyle
75)Bill Joyce

All-new-guy PHoM: Al Kaline, Ron Santo, Norm Cash

HoM Ballot.


1. Al Kaline (new)

This one is easy, in my opinion. The gap between 1 and 2 is the largest on my ballot.

2. Jake Beckley (3,3,2)

Beckley, Welch and GVH take turns being the person I think has been the most overlooked.

3. Mickey Welch (4,4,4)

See Beckley.

4. Ron Santo (new)

No question in my mind that he belongs.

5. George Van Haltren (2,2,5)

See Beckley.

6. Norm Cash (new)

Am I overrating him? Maybe, but I'm not convinced yet.

7. Nellie Fox (5,8,7)

8. Hugh Duffy (8,7,8)

9. Orlando Cepeda (new)

See Cash.

10. Dobie Moore (7,5,3)

Another underrated guy, but a step below Beckley et al.

11. Quincy Trouppe (13,11,11)

12. Edd Roush (9,10,10)

13. Tommy Leach (10,9,9)

See Moore.

14. Sam Rice (15,15,12)

15. Minnie Minoso (12,12,13)

16-20. F.Howard, Sewell, Boyer, Ryan, Childs
21-25. Mullane, White, Johnson, Elliott, Redding
26-30. Doyle, Kiner, Streeter, Pierce, Strong

1980 ballot, our 83rd

Voting style: I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check on the newfangled toys.

Wow, what an incoming class. I like all 5 top newcomers very much, and 4 make my ballot.

1. RON SANTO - I almost thought I'd wind up seeing him as overhyped by SABR types, but instead after a close look he beats Kaline by a nose for the top spot! Tremendous durability from 1961-71 (in top 4 in Games Played 7 times), which is even more valuable for a 3B than for an OF. Five Gold Gloves in that span, and many defensive formulas back up his skills there. Only Baker among previous white 3Bs rivals him as a hitter, and he's among the all-time leaders in Gs at 3B.
2. AL KALINE - Had 4 seasons of 150 OPS+ as regular, 8 at 140+, and 12 at 128 or better. Ranks right up there with the great Clemente. But Kaline's durability is an annual issue from 1962 forward (he fails to clear 133 Gs nine times after that), and it barely costs him the top spot. But that just explains why he isn't No. 1; he's comfortably ahead of the rest of the field.
3. JUAN MARICHAL - Much better 3-year peak than recent inductees Drysdale or Bunning; doesn't quite hold up as long as Bunning or pitch as many relative IP. But he's about even with Drysdale on my dance card, which makes him the best P on the board and a solid if unspectacular HOMer. Run support was remarkable, and explains the W-L record.


4. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with even Kaline over his top 9 years helped him keep his 4th slot this year. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?
5. JAKE BECKLEY - Kiner finally overtakes him this year.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism.
6. CUPID CHILDS - Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better. This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support.
7. BILLY PIERCE - Put up a good fight with Marichal, but the Dominican Dandy's seasonal durability won the day. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still think he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out (beyond the already-elected Spahn-Roberts-Ford trio). Keep him on your radar.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
9. GAVVY CRAVATH - Good to see more discussion of him, but I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
10. ORLANDO CEPEDA - This next group is remarkably close; I hope to find some way to differentiate them. Cepeda was a textbook All-Star hitter for his day, and unlike Kaline and especially Clemente he was a stud from Day 1. Seems to have been a good 1B in hi s day (I mostly just remember him as an end-career DH with the Red Sox). At this point, not penalizing him for refusing to move positions to help his team - for this, Derek Jeter is grateful.
11. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
12. FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DHer on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135. Could move up.
13. BOB JOHNSON - Moved back onto my ballot a few yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
14. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 2 yrs ago, still hanging on. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
15. RUBE WADDELL - Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. I still think he had some direct impact in costing his team some wins with his 'personality quirks,' but his overall effectiveness is impressive. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, never led his league in IP and only in the top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But I'll give him this spot, at least.

TOP 10 RETURNEES SNUBBED
DICK REDDING - Big drop the last 3 years and for now slips off the ballot; the new stats suggest that he wasn't the long-career workhorse that some of us had believed. For me, that's very costly. But think about how many Negro League hitters we have elected/are considering. This still may be the missing Negro League pitcher in our experiment. Too bad the HOF didn't feel the same way, and I now guess the HOM won't, either.
NELLIE FOX - Last year was my first time voting for him since - ever? But that core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends. He'll be back on my ballot, probably.
JOSE MENDEZ - I reread his whole thread several yrs ago (it's long). I am satisfied as to Mendez being able to pitch to a level of a HOMer at his best, but there's not quite enough there for me. Still better than most pitchers available, and could someday grab a No. 15 spot, but he doesn't quite rate with me right now. Sorry, Jose.
HUGH DUFFY - Win Shares gets him all wrong, and eventually they'll fix it. Excellent fielder, but geesh, he's not Ozzie Smith. As noted on the discussion thread, a non-WS look at the numbers leaves you wondering how he gets so many votes here.
JOE SEWELL - I prefer great-hitting SSs, or long-career ones, or great fielding ones at least. Sewell is a HOVG SS-3B.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
NORM CASH - I tried to find a ballot spot for him, but I couldn't. My gripe is that he often had 100 fewer PA (adjusting for pre-expansion guys) than the competition each year. Good 1B and very reliable when in the lineup, but he's the first one to really confound my OPS+ lists. Well, they're just a get-started point anyway, and in Cash's case I needed to make more adjustments than usual. Still might fight his way onto the ballot, however.
PETE BROWNING - Ran out of room for this big slugger, too. He's slipped a bit behind the Kiner/Cravath doppelgangers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I doubt it.
BURLEIGH GRIMES - Landed back on my radar nearly a decade ago, but fell just off the ballot 3 yrs ago. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but when the ballot thins it's inevitable that he would sneak back into my top 15 at times.

My ballot:

1)Ralph Kiner-He's a truly awesome hitter, Sisler's equal or probably superior. He's no great shakes in the field, but, he'd have to be Luzinski-like to not be HoM worthy. He wasn't that bad. The preeminent NL slugger of his generation.
2)Juan Marichal-Has the near Koufax-like peak, but has it playing in post-intergration MLB. Best pitcher on ballot.
3)Ron Santo-A better candidate than Rosen, in that his best season isn't quite as fluky. Since I think Rosen is the cats pajamas, that's high praise.
4)Jose Mendez-I'm persuaded by the work of others that he would have had a super, Koufax-like peak if he pitched in the majors. Falls below Marichal because of the uncertainty, and because Marichal's peak is pretty freakin' fantastic.
5)Charlie Keller-Not much distinguishes Kiner and Keller, though I fear that Keller may have been helped (or rather, less hurt) by his park, and so is overrated by OPS+.
6)Dizzy Dean-For 3 years, best NL pitcher behind Hubbell. As a bonus, his team won the WS during one of those years.
7)Gavvy Cravath-I give him credit for missed seasons in his "true" prime; I don't buy the "not good enough for the bigs" argument. It would be shocking for a player with his post-prime not to have a HOM worth prime (though not impossible: see Hondo). Because of the strength of what is, and probably what was, he should be in.
8)Rube Waddell-A 2 year peak, but oh, what a peak. Best pitcher in the majors after Mathewson at his best.
9)Al Rosen-Further review just makes me more confident in his case. Screwed by the war, screwed by the Indians, betrayed by his back. Was just looking over the NBJHBA the other day, and he had the highest winshare season of any 3B listed.
10)Minnie Minoso-Gavvy-lite. See above.
11)Cupid Childs-It's a great peak, and the 1890's NL was reasonably strong league. He also gets positional points. I think he was probably a better player than McGraw, who's the other peak-guy from that generation who hasn't made the HoM.
12)Bucky Walters-It's really only 2 great years, but those 2 great years are better than (for instance) Grimes's 2 great years. Similar to Dean, but w/o the T.T.O. style of pitching.
13)Ken Boyer-He's not Rosen, but that's no disqualification. Great all-around player. Probably even stronger from a career-value POV.
14)Elston Howard- Similar to Al Rosen, except more so. I'm inclined to believe that a guy who was one of the fiveish best players in the league from age 31-35 would have been one of the fiveish best players in the league from 26-30 as well, if he hadn't been mucked up by the Yankees.
15)Orlando Cepeda-A monster, pre-injuries. It's like George Sisler v.2.0.

Not on Ballot:
--Al Kaline: Sustained verygoodnees. I fail to see why he should be picked over centerfielders like Duffy or Wilson, or corner guys like Kiner or Keller. Heck, I don't even think he'll compare favorably to guys like Ken Singleton or Bobby Murcer when they come up. From a peak POV, he's a thoroughly mediocre candidate.
--Dick Redding: If Marichal is elected this year, he'll probably be on the ballot next year. Best pitcher off ballot.
--Joe Sewell: Upon further review, not as good a candidate as Vern Stephens, who himself was pushed off my ballot this year.
--Nellie Fox: I'm curious about Fox, and can see moving him up in the future once I get a better handle on his non-batting contributions.
--Jake Beckley: Just 'cause someone played forever doesn't make them a great player at any point during that time.
--Norm Cash: A surprisingly strong candidate, but below several peakish hitters who aren't even on the ballot.
--Dobie Moore: Yeesh. There's plenty of reason to believe that Dobie Moore was one of the greatest shortstops who ever lived, but the uncertainty in that assessment is off the charts. Trying to figure him out ex-post-facto isn't helped by the hijack of the Dobie Moore thread into some kind of holy war. I'm partially inclined to vote for him, but...I wish there was more to go on.

B. Williams - last time you said you would recheck Hugh Duffy's creds. did you? There is a great Keltner list and other cool info on a thread for him George Van Haltren and Jimmy Ryan. Check it out for 1981. For the peak lover.

On the Glorious Fourth, I vote! Each player has their 77-78-79 ballot placement in parentheses. Last year, we elected Willie Mays (1) and George Sisler (9).

1. Al Kaline (new) - A smooth, stylish player. Clemente has a better peak; Kaline a better career.

2. Ron Santo (new) - Reached base and hit for power at exemplary rates for a 3B. An above-average defender too.

3. Jose Mendez (2-3-2) - More like Sandy Koufax than Wes Ferrell on the mound, even if he couldn't hit as well as Ferrell.

4. Juan Marichal (new) - Similar career rate stats to Drysdale, but a higher peak. People are docking him too steeply for his run support - a pitcher [pitchers' hitting aside] has no more control over being well supported than being poorly supported.

5. Charley Jones (4-5-3) - All positions, all eras. The only glaring NA-era omission.

6. Wally Schang (5-4-4) - *His BBRef page says, "The ONLY great offensive catcher of the World War I era, and solid defensively as well. His greatness has been recognized in the BaseballEvolution.com Hall of Fame." *No offense meant to Louis Santop.

7. Billy Pierce (6-6-5) - deserves leverage credit, on top of an already strong resume.

8. Norm Cash (new) - Like Pierce, Cash had the One Big Year, and a 139 career OPS+ coupled with consistently good 1B defense is nothing to sneeze at.

9. Quincy Trouppe (3-7-6) - the tail of his career was preferable to the head of Campanella's career.

10. Jake Beckley (13-10-11) - It's amazing that 1B was a below-average position in terms of Runs Created for much of his career. I'm appreciating his durability more and more.

11. Ken Boyer (7-8-7) - a consecutive peak, entirely at 3B, in a strong league (1958-64). His rapid decline keeps him out of Santo territory.

12. Joe Sewell (9-9-8) - The best available SS. The latest research on Dobie Moore shows that Moore was slightly worse than Sewell in the same time span.

13. Nellie Fox (12-13-12) - a full grade better with the bat than Mazeroski, and nearly as skilled with the glove.

14. Dick Redding (10-11-10) - see my comments in his own thread.

15. Orlando Cepeda (new) - peak-a-licious career shape sneaks him onto my ballot.

16-20: Minoso (was 13), Maranville (was 14), E. Howard (was 15), Doyle, Browning.
21-25: Kiner, Luque, F. Howard, Bridges, Oms.
26-30: Waddell, Roush, Lombardi, Aparicio, Elliott.

B. Williams - last time you said you would recheck Hugh Duffy's creds. did you? There is a great Keltner list and other cool info on a thread for him George Van Haltren and Jimmy Ryan. Check it out for 1981. For the peak lover.

Since it was asked...


Other Not On Ballot-

--Hugh Duffy: Was he really all that great? Hitting-wise, I don't see all that much to separate his peak from other marginal candidates. I mean, his OPS+ was among the leaders only twice. Even from a peak POV, I don't think he's as great as people make him out to be. There are several 20th century outfielders I'd favor over him.
--Pete Browning: I timeline his best years, as they come when baseball was truly a regional game. And his best years weren't even all that incredible. to earn my vote, Browning would have to utterly dominate his context, and he didn't.

I'm baaaack...

And this is surely the single most nonsensical thing I have heard in 3 years of HoM:

>5. Norm Cash: ...An above-average hitter for his whle career,
which lasted a long time and has a fine,
>14. Ron Santo: The weight I put on career-length might hurt him a little,

Santo played more MLB games than Cash, but Cash had a long career and Santo a short one. Welcome to bizzaro world.

I had that in capital letters then thought better of it.

1980 Ballot:

This year’s class includes three solid HoMers—not in the top half of the Hall (except possibly Santo), but in the third quartile and well above the in-out line. They are also my personal hall of merit inductees—Santo, Marichal, and Kaline.

1. Ron Santo – 7 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 38. Won 5 Gold Gloves; placed in the top 10 in MVP voting 4 times. I have him ranked as the # 3 third baseman to date, behind Mathews and Wilson and just ahead of Baker. (PHoM 1980)

2. Juan Marichal – Over 8 seasons (1962-66, 68-69, 71), Marichal averaged 22-10, 5.1 wins above team, 295 IP, 127 DERA+, 206 SO, 55 BB. His six best seasons were nearly a match for Koufax’s; with a prime that adds another two good seasons, I think Marichal has to rank ahead of Koufax. A surprising statistic—in his six 20-win seasons, Marichal never received a Cy Young vote. Of course, during the 1960s voters only cast a single (first-place) vote, and Marichal always wound up behind Koufax or Gibson or Seaver, but still I thought it was surprising for a pitcher with such an awesome peak. His only Cy Young vote was one third-place vote in 1971. However, he placed in the top 10 in MVP voting 3 times. (PHoM 1980)

3. Al Kaline – 9 seasons with 24+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). He won 10 Gold Gloves and placed in the top 10 in MVP voting 9 times, including two second-place finishes. In the comparison with Clemente, I have him just behind, but it’s close enough that it could go either way. (PHoM 1980)

4. Orestes Miñoso – 8 seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). He won three Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 31. As I observed on my 1978 ballot, in his prime Miñoso was not far behind Clemente. (PHoM 1970)

5. Ken Boyer – 8 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 33 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). Five Gold Glove awards. MVP for 1964; four times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1975)

6. Phil Rizzuto – Great defensive shortstop and an above-average hitter for the position. MVP for 1950, runner up for 1949; World Series MVP for 1951; age 25-27 seasons in military service. (PHoM 1967)

7. Hugh Duffy – 8 seasons with 26+ WS, with a high of 41 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule); A+ defensive outfielder. (PHoM 1931)

8. José de la Caridad Méndez – Over his first 7 Cuban League seasons (1908-14) he went 62-17, 16.3 wins above team. From 1920-26 with the Monarchs he was 26-12, 2.70 ERA, and hero of the 1924 Negro World Series. (PHoM 1938)

9. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

10. Alejandro Oms – According to the MLEs, 8 seasons with 27+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). From 1921–29 (ages 26 to 34), he averaged an OPS+ of 138 while playing center field with excellent range—that’s comparable to Paul Waner at the same ages. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

11. Nellie Fox - 9 seasons with 22+ WS, with a high of 34 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). “A” defensive second baseman; 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. MVP for 1959; six times in the top 10 in votes. (PHoM 1979)

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 122 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Elston Howard – Howard’s record from 1961-64 leaves little doubt in my mind that he was a great catcher. MVP for 1963; placed 3rd in 1964. (PHoM 1977)

14. Gavy Cravath – From ages 32-36 his OPS+ stats were 172-160-171-147-153. However, he was just continuing what he’d been doing for years, while he was with Los Angeles at age 26 and with Minneapolis from ages 28-30 (See the Gavvy Cravath thread). (PHoM 1976)

15. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

Near misses:

16. Dobie Moore
17. Dick Redding (PHoM 1976) – I’ve voted for him before, and I’ll vote for him again. This time he just misses.
18. Frank Howard
19 Orlando Cepeda – 7 seasons with 23+ WS, with a high of 34 (adjusting to 162 gm schedule). Other than the home runs, he and Howard really weren’t similar players, so it’s interesting to see them neck and neck in my ratings.
20. Burleigh Grimes (PHoM 1940)

21–25. Newcombe, Keller, Leach (PHoM 1932), Bresnahan, Easter

Other consensus top 10:

30. Ralph Kiner – I’m not a huge fan of slugging corner OF/1B who don’t make much defensive contribution. But compared with the other “bat” candidates, I think Kiner has to rank behind Cravath, Howard, and Cepeda, who had similar peaks and longer careers, and also behind Keller, who had a significantly better peak in an even shorter career.

76. Joe Sewell – I find the popularity of his candidacy perplexing. Like his contemporary, Dobie Moore, Sewell’s HoM case essentially rests on what he accomplished through age 30, that is, on Sewell’s 8 seasons at shortstop plus his one good season at third base. Sewell did not hit as well as Moore (Sewell’s OPS+ for 1923–29 was 114, compared to Moore’s MLE OPS+ of 126 for 1920–26), and reports suggest that Moore was his superior with the glove. So, I don’t see Sewell as particularly close to Moore, who is my # 16.

Not in my top 100. Jake Beckley – No, no, no.

Other new arrivals:

Norm Cash ranks #29. His rate statistics were boosted, and his count statistics were reduced, by platooning, illustrating why it’s important for evaluation systems to include a tradeoff between the two. As I’ve argued elsewhere, I think WARP overestimates his defensive value. Still, Cash was a fine player who was surely undervalued during his own time.

Dick McAuliffe didn’t make my top 100.

1. Juan Marichal, P (n/e). Six outstanding years in which he was in the discussion as one of the best pitchers in the game. He was the league leader in at least one major category from ’63 to ’66 and again in ’68 and ’69. He was top ten in ERA+ for each of those six years including finishes of 1st, 2nd and 2nd. He had strong shoulder seasons, picking up gray ink in ’61, ’62, ’67 and ’71. And his career numbers are better than Drysdale, Bunning, Pierce and the MLEs for Mendez and Redding. The one knock against Marichal is that he didn’t strike out a lot of guys, but his strikeout to walk ratio shows that he was effective within the strike zone even if he wasn’t making people miss. I think I’m the only one to put him first so far (and may be the only one to do for this election) but there’s no doubt in my mind that he is the most deserving candidate on the ballot.

2. Ron Santo, 3B (n/e). The best third baseman from 1964-68. He won five straight Gold Gloves and made 9 All-Star teams in 11 years. Santo’s career only lasted for 15 seasons, but in those 15 seasons he was incredibly durable (160 games or more 7 times, 150 or more 11 times) and productive. He led his league in OBP twice in 1964 and ’66, and in triples once in 1964. He was a patient power hitter, finishing in the top ten 7 times each in OBP and in home runs. And he has a high career value as he’s in the top 100 all-time in walks, home runs, total bases, rbi. His critics might point out that he’s also top 100 in strikeouts and gidps but that’s not enough to keep him out of this Hall, and shouldn’t be enough to keep him out of the other one.

3. Al Kaline, OF (n/e). Like Clemente, Al Kaline lacks the black ink of contemporary outfielders like Aaron, Mays and Robinson. He did pick up a bit, leading his league in batting average and total bases in 1955, in slugging percentage in 1959 and in doubles in 1961. But he more than makes up for it with sustained excellence throughout his career finishing top ten in average 10 times, on-base 8, slugging 9, runs 8, total bases 8, doubles 8, home runs 8 and rbi 8. And his career numbers are great, better than Clemente, 25th all-time in hits and 22nd in total bases.

4. Jose Mendez, P (2). James Newburg’s MLEs have Jose Mendez with a .588 winning percentage, a 208-146 record, and a 2.29 ERA. Chris Cobb’s are slightly more conservative with .595, 195-133 and 2.63. Those numbers obviously aren’t as good as the best of his contemporaries like Pete Alexander and Lefty Grove, but they’re better than those of HoMer Red Faber and comparable to HoMer Stan Coveleski.

5. Cannonball Dick Redding, P (3). In his discussion thread, there are positive comments that rank Redding as high as 4th or 5th all-time amongst Negro League pitchers and even the negative comments admit that he’s no lower than 8th or 10th. His MLEs of 234-174 put him in the neighborhood if not ahead of contemporaries like Coveleski, Rixey and Faber.

6. Nellie Fox, 2B (4). Fox was an outstanding defensive second baseman- winning three Gold Gloves- and an ideal top of the line-up hitter- routinely landing in top ten lists for Runs (7 times), AVG (8), Hits (10) and Triples (11). Plus he has a long prime during which he was acknowledged as the best at his position, picking up MVP votes in 10 seasons and being named an All-Star 12 times.

7. Quincy Trouppe, C (5). Trouppe was a well-above-average player from 1939-1943 (ages 26 to 30) and again from 1946-48 (ages 33 to 35). It’s kind of odd that he didn’t play as well in ’44 and ’45, despite war-time weakened opposition. But a catcher whose career on-base is 100 points higher than his average and who could definitely slug for his era (the estimated .529 in 1948 would have been 5th overall in either the AL or the NL) should find a place on my ballot. I see him with four peak years (’39 and ’46-’48) and eight prime years, making him the best catcher available and better than a few already elected.

8. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (n/e). Cepeda is surprisingly close to Kaline. They have similar amounts of black ink. Cepeda led his league in doubles in 1958, in home runs and RBI in 1961 and in RBI again in 1967. And they have similar lengths to their prime, with Cepeda finishing in the top ten in his league in avg 8, slugging 9, hits 7, total bases 8, home runs 10 and RBI 10. But Cepeda barely contributed after 1970, leaving his career totals well behind those of Kaline.

9. Billy Pierce, P (6). The difference between Juan Marichal and Billy Pierce isn’t as great as their placement on the ballot would suggest (1st and 9th). But then, that was also true when I had Pierce 5th and Drysdale and Bunning around 12th. An All-Star 7 times between 1953 and 1961, TSN named him AL Pitcher of the Year for 1956 and 1957 so he’s got both the peak and the prime. During that prime, Pierce also made the adjustment from being a strikeout pitcher- leading the league in Ks in 1953 and Ks per 9 IP in ’53 and ’55- to an innings eater –leading the league in Complete Games from 1956-’58- demonstrating that he’s smart as well as talented.

10. Luis Aparicio, SS (11). He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He led his league in stolen bases for 9 straight seasons from 1956-1964 and he stayed in the top ten for another 4 until he was 35 in 1969. He won five straight Gold Gloves from 1958-1962 and then another 4 in alternating years from 1964-1970. He was 4th in average in 1970, top ten in runs 5 times, in hits and triples 7. Plus, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from 1958 to 1973 and leading the league his league twice in 1969 and 1973. And he has some decent career totals: 33rd in stolen bases, 58th in hits, 94th in runs, and despite not being a guy who walked all that often, 90th in times on base.

11. Minnie Minoso, OF (7). He was an All-Star as soon as he entered the Major Leagues, getting named to the actual team 7 times and picking up MVP votes 8 times. He was routinely among the league leaders, finishing in the top ten eight or nine times each for AVG, OBP, Runs, Hits, Total Bases, 2Bs and Stolen Bases. A little bit of Negro League credit at the beginning of his career gives him the added boost to offset the lack of black ink.

12. Hugh Duffy, OF (8). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

13. Ernie Lombardi, C (9). Lombardi was a solid All-Star 8 times between 1936 and 1945 and the MVP in 1938. He was top ten in the league 5 times in Home Runs, 7 times in AVG and 8 times in SLG. And he was the last catcher to lead his league in average, something that the news sources have been trumpeting of late now that Joe Mauer is making a run.

14. Mickey Welch, P (12). Mickey Welch was never among the very best in the game and he lacks the peak of black ink that I tend to admire. But he was among the very good for such a long time that he has the best career numbers of anyone on the ballot. He was 307-210 with a .594 winning percentage. He was top ten in ERA, wins, innings, strikeouts and complete games 9 times which gives him as long a prime as almost anybody else on this ballot.

15. Ralph Kiner OF (14). Led the league in Home Runs 7 straight seasons and finished fifth one more time. But Kiner was more than just a one-dimensional player. Fans of both OPS and Adjusted OPS+ should be impressed by his league-leading numbers in those categories in 1947, ’49 and ’51.

Squeezed out (and Necessary Disclosures):
With four great players newly eligible, two got pushed off of this year's ballot. That includes last year's top ten finisher Joe Sewell and almost top ten finisher Ken Boyer whom I had 13th and 15th.

Jake Beckley is currently 20th, the second-best first baseman on my ballot next to Cepeda.

Other Notable Newly Eligible Players:
Norm Cash: I enjoyed the Cash/Cepeda/Howard comparisons in their threads but I still didn't come away that impressed by Cash. He's in my consideration set but somewhere between 45 and 50.

I grade rank my candidates. As and Bs would make my version of a Smaller Hall. B minuses and C plusses are borderline. Cs and below, including the 4 on my ballot, are not worthy.

I have Sewell, Minoso and Duffy at 21, 23 and 31.

1. Al Kaline (A) – underrated in my opinion. Easy choice for me on this ballot.

2. Mickey Welch (A-) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Juan Marichal (B+) – definitely superior to Grimes, possibly better than Welch. Nice peak, nice winning percentage.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber on the one hand (both now elected) and Grimes on the other.

5. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

6. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Ron Santo (B) – great career for a thirdbaseman. His "B" rating seems a bit low given where I place him all-time among 3b, but maybe there just haven't been that many superstar 3b. Still, a solid HoMer.

8. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

9. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+.

10. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

11. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

12. Orlando Cepeda (C) – I could have him just off ballot as well. He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

13. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Bunning, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin, the best of whom is at 26 on my ballot.

14. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

15. George Van Haltren (C) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares. He is one spot ahead of Ryan and 16 spots ahead of Duffy. At one time I had all three back-to-back-to-back in the middle of my ballot. Ah, the teens.

Brent, how can you not have Jake Beckley in your top 100? For example, I strongly disagree with Dobie Moore's HoM argument, but I would have him around #60 if I went so deep in my rankings. To say he doesn't belong in your top 100, to me, sounds like you are categorically dismissing him.

Now I'm thinking, who would be #100 on this year's ballot? I'm thinking of guys like Davy Force, Kiki Cuyler, and Bobo Newsom.

What Ardo said, especially in view of Grimes at #20. Grimes strikes me as the pitching equivalent of Beckley.

Brent, how can you not have Jake Beckley in your top 100? ... To say he doesn't belong in your top 100, to me, sounds like you are categorically dismissing him.

Has Brent's position on Beckley changed from previous ballots? Seems unlikely, and he's been around awhile. :)

My near-100s are Norm Cash, Tip O'Neill, Ron Perranoski and Mickey Vernon. I've got Beckley at #41, which honestly isn't that much different. Reasonable minds will differ.

Dick Redding doesn't crack my top 100 and it isn't because I've categorically dismissed him. I just can't see in his actual numbers what everyone else has projected for him. However, I'm sure all of us see someone in the top 20 or so that just makes our jaw drop.

Maybe I'm off by 40 or 50 spots on Redding, and maybe Brent is off 40 or 50 spots on Beckley, but what difference does it really make?

Grimes strikes me as the pitching equivalent of Beckley.

Agree completely.

1980 Ballot

1. Kaline, Al – Impressive across the board.

2. Marichal, Juan – Clearly one of the best pitchers of the 60s. Looks better in WARP than WS and RSI indicates he got whopping run support, but even without the extra wins he was a .600 pitcher.

3. Santo, Ron – Wasn’t sure where he would end up, but as third basemen go, he deserves to be in. I acknowledge that if he had played 1b, rf or lf, he’d be off the ballot with these hitting numbers.

4. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in my PHoM and he played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

5. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Good grey ink and a consistent run producer.

6. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit.

7. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be.

8. Browning, Pete – After much teeth-gnashing, I increased the applicable AA discount, but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

9. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

10. Wilson, Artie – An outstanding shortstop who outhit his competition by about 20% has to be on the ballot. I don’t see any real distinctions among Wilson, Sewell and Gordon, at least in terms of how to rank them.

11. Sewell, Joe –He’s a nudge ahead of Joe Gordon in my system.

12. Dean, Dizzy – Short career obviously adversely affects his ranking.

13. Pierce, Billy – I don’t think he is HoM-worthy, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

14. McGraw, John – Doesn’t get enough credit for his abilities as a player.

15. Boyer, Ken – This could just as easily have been Nellie Fox.

Required Disclosure(s):

Kiner, Ralph – I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. That’s good for #66 in my rankings, just behind Wally Schang and just ahead of Chuck Klein.

Redding, Dick – What a character.

Mendez, Jose – Though, he’s not in never never land like Redding. I’m committed to giving him another look…eventually, but he’s got a long way to go since he’s #61 in my rankings, between Rizzuto and Zimmerman.

Beckley, Jake -- He’s #41, a little behind Hack Wilson, tied with Urban Shocker, and a nudge ahead of Dave Bancroft.

Fox, Nellie – He’s neck and neck with Ken Boyer and currently at #16.

Howie and Sunnyday,

When I'm talking about career length, I don't just mean games played, but seasons active, seasons effective, and being effective to an old baseball age. That is, I factor all of those things into the evaluation. So if a player was terrific for twelve years after not reaching the majors till age 25, I'd consider him to have had a long career. If a player didn't make it past his early thirties, it's hard to consider him as having had a long career; he was good enough to be in the majors by age 20 (in Santo's case), but what if he hadn't been (or been considered to be), didn't make the majors till four years later, and still collapsed at the same age? Then his career wouldn't have been long.

Santo, of course, makes it, because his career is long enough any way you slice it (and then, even more of course, his performance during that career warrents it). But the collapse at 34 had to be outwayed by the fact that he had a 14-year career even so. That's the same reasoning that everybody else went through, but I spelled it out. For Cash, he had a 17 year career, which is long whether his manager decided to platoon him for a lot of that time or not. And he gets credit for durability by having lasted till he was 39, since most players don't. Obviously, those things wouldn't help him if he hadn't also been a well above-average player. But it can be seen from my ranking of Cash, and also Minoso, that I consider very sustained above-average performance to be HOM-worthy. I'll probably be ranking Tommy John and Don Sutton in my top-15s, too.

You didn't just say that Santo didn't have a long career because if it had started four years later, it wouldn't have been long, did you?

It's 5:30 in the afternoon on Independence Day, I think it's time to start drinking.

He did say he was insane.

Brent, how can you not have Jake Beckley in your top 100?

Because being a good player for a long, long time does not transform one into a great player. Kelly from SD presented Beckley’s pros and cons well in the Keltner list, so I won't go through them in detail.

In looking at HoM candidates I focus on the seasons when the player was an All Star, one of the top players in the game. You'll notice in my comments about position players that I usually say something like “X seasons with 25+ WS (adjusting to 162 gm schedule)” Beckley’s problem is that in his case, X=0; his best years were 3 seasons with 24 win shares. Although he had many good seasons, his performance never approached greatness.

I have the following first basemen ranked ahead of Beckley: Cepeda, Easter, Cash, Hodges, Vernon, Fournier, Taylor, and Chance.

I have the following 1890s players ranked ahead of Beckley: Duffy, Van Haltren, McGraw, Childs, Long, Ryan, Tiernan, and Cross.

And since you asked, my # 100 ranked player is Pennock.

Grimes strikes me as the pitching equivalent of Beckley.

I disagree. Grimes had a very nice pitching peak, and was picked by Bill James as the # 3 pitcher on his 1920s Major League all-star team. Over 8 seasons (1918, 20-21, 23-24, and 27-29) Grimes averaged 21–12, 4.0 wins above team, 292 IP, 116 DERA+, and 67 OPS+. Several seasons he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Vaux,
You are kidding with us, right?

If you play in the majors from age 20-34, it's not a long career, but playing in the majors from age 25-39 makes it a long career?

And here I've been moseying along for 81 ballots thinking that the amount of games played/started (adjusted for era) is what mattered, when it turns out that really I needed to penalize players for reaching the majors early while giving bonuses to players who arrived much later.

plate appearances per year, most to least, for Santo and Cash:

Santo 704 697 687 687 686 682 679 672 655 655 642 604 547 417 382, total 9396
NCash 679 672 629 593 577 559 556 553 523 501 458 452 428 420 172 130 08, total 7910

I note that not only does Santo sweep the board, his advantage in years 5-13 is 100+ PA in each case. He winds up a whopping 1486 career PA ahead - a little more than two Santo seasons, or about 3 Cash seasons, ahead.

To sum it up, while Cash was sitting in the dugout against lefties he couldn't hit, Santo was playing nearly every game, every day, at a more important defensive position.


Like sunnyday, I've modified this post to make it more polite.

Now, can you please either defend that stance and show me what I'm missing, or perhaps consider a clarification? We do like to challenge each other, and all of us land under the microscope at times.
Sometimes we can take on the questions quite well, and sometimes we realize that we erred.

his advantage in years 5-13 is 100+ PA in each case

Selective endpoints, man. Take a look at year 14 -- who's crazy now?

Brent, re Beckley.
I like your angle on a lot of things, so I'll give you a free shot at knocking this context right out of the box. I may well be missing something......

1890 PL (the best league that year): 152 adj OPS+ (3rd-best in league), 3rd in SLG, 3rd in total bases, 2nd in doubles, 1st in triples (with 22!), 6th in HR, 3rd in RBI, 5th in runs created, 1st in extra-base hits. By my primitive accounting, doing that while playing a pretty challenging defensive position rates rather well.
1904 NL: adj 144 OPS+ (5th best), 3rd in AVG, 8th in OBP, 10th in SLG, 2nd in Hits, 5th in total bases, 9th in RBI, 2nd in singles, 2nd in Runs Created, 3rd in times on base - again, for some reason I'm thinking this is quite a good year. If only I used Win Shares to talk me out of that thinking.

and on it goes. Beckley's most similar player from age 25-37 is Sam Crawford - except for age 34, when we substitute HOMer Joe Kelley. Beckley then wraps up with two "Zack Wheat seasons, while at age 23 he was "Tris Speaker." His only top 10 similarity fellow not in the HOF is an all-time vote-getter in Jimmy Ryan; the only other non-HOMer is Sam Rice.

I've laid a few softballs in there, but I'll invite anyone to knock out the whole concept like a stack of bowling pins (to deliberately mix sports metaphors)....

Daryn,
That rates a lol even without a heads-up ;)

I'm down with Beckley as out of the top 100. I don't actually know if he's out of my current Rick Dees HOM Hot 100, but he's no where near my ballot. In fact I've got three HOM 1Bs (McVey, Sisler, and Terry) and ten current candidates between Jake and my in/out line:
Cepeda
Chance
Fournier
Cash
Taylor
Vernon
Hodges
Easter
Bottomley
Konetchy

Of course I'm no fan of Beckely's....but if 1B has that many guys between him and glory, then you start looking at players of similar rating at the other positions, it's pretty easy to see that if you aren't a Beckleyite, he can very easily finish outside the 100.

Beckley's most similar player from age 25-37 is Sam Crawford - except for age 34, when we substitute HOMer Joe Kelley. Beckley then wraps up with two "Zack Wheat seasons, while at age 23 he was "Tris Speaker." His only top 10 similarity fellow not in the HOF is an all-time vote-getter in Jimmy Ryan; the only other non-HOMer is Sam Rice.

Similarity scores are not park or era adjusted. Crawford is *way* better than Beckley with the bat. Kelley is better too, but less markedly so. Wheat is a closer comp, I'll admit.

Vaux, Jack Quinn was 50 when he retired. Discuss.

PHOM
Al Kaline
Ron Santo
Juan Marichal

1980 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Jose Mendez – Looking at the Negro League pitchers thread shows I may have been underrating him. Elected PHOM in 1942.
5. Al Kaline – I have him as a little better than Clemente. Elected PHOM in 1980.
6. Ron Santo – Best 3rd baseman on the board. Elected PHOM in 1980.
7. Juan Marichal – Like his peak. Better than Drysdale or Bunning. Elected PHOM in 1980
8. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
9. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
10. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
11. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
12. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
13. Hugh Duffy – Finally elected to my PHOM. Been on the fringes forever. Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
14. Ralph Kiner – These high peak, short career players are the hardest for me to evaluate. Incredible peak and enough prime value to make my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1971.
15. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972

Required Disclosures
Minoso - Just misses mt ballot
Fox - In the mid 20's
Sewell - Like Doyle, Rizzuto, Stephens better
Beckley - In my top 100, but much closer to 100 than 15

New candidates
Orlando Cepeda Close to Terry among 1st basemen. (Terry is not in my PHOM)
Norm Cash Underrated by history, but still below Cepeda,Easter,Chance, Fournier,Beckley and Vernon.
Dick McAuliffe Even with Buddy Myer, below Schoendienst and Mazeroski.

Off the Ballot
16-20 Dean,Roush,Bresnahan,Oms,Minoso
21-25 Cravath,Waddell,Monroe,EHoward,Mays
26-30 Fox,Johnson,Elliott,FHoward,Trouppe
31-35 McGraw,Doyle,Leach,Boyer,Newcombe
36-40 Stephens,FJones,WCooper,Matlock,Wilson
41-45 Rizzuto,Cepeda,Keller,Poles,HSmith
46-50 Tiernan,Winters,Rosen,Bond,Schang

Howie,

re Beckley, the biggest hole in his game was that he was below average in drawing walks. As a result, despite a good batting average, he was only in the top 10 in OBP twice (and only once in the top 10 in runs scored). His OPS+, which is already low for a first baseman, is heavy on slugging and light on OBP, which makes it worth less than if it were heavier on the OBP. Yes, Beckley's 1890 and 1904 seasons were pretty good (they were two of the three 24-WS seasons I mentioned; 1900 was the third). The problem is that most viable 1B/corner OF candidates have 7 or 8 seasons that good, including several better seasons.

Brent:
- His OPS+ is low for a first basemen of any era, is that the claim here? Are you accounting for how different the 1B position was back then?
- was he below-average for his era in drawing walks?
- "heavy on slugging" costs him what, 2-3 OPS+ pts at very-most? Isn't that mostly a red herring?
- Is it relevant that 1B/OFs in the HR-era have better seasonal OPS+s than Beckley? I think not, but feel free to talk me out of it...

Maybe I wasn't clear. I said that if Santo had reached the majors four years later and still retired at the same time he wouldn't have had a long career. As it is, he had a long career. I would never discount a player for having his career begin at a young age. What I do sometimes do is give some additional credit for a career that's still long but also concentrated toward an older age, which in some sense becomes a little longer because the player was playing professional baseball before reaching the majors. And quite often, players for whatever reason are left in the minor leagues for longer than they really should be.

But now that I've thought about it more clearly, I agree with the view that a major-league game is a major-league game, and it's silly to hold otherwise, unless, of course, there's a legitimate reason to give minor-league credit. No votes that I've made would be changed by this revised attitude, but henceforth I'll only think about games and years played, not the age that the player was when he did it. This is, I think, the biggest reason why there are so few pitchers in the HOM; the more career-value oriented voters can find fewer pitchers to vote for, which ignores the fact that pitchers just don't last as long as position players. So for pitchers, I'm especially going to be less length-obsessed in the future.

Thanks for questioning me, because I wouldn't have learned anything otherwise. The HOM has to be based on the same principles as any other academic discourse.

Well, I accept that answer, vaux.
None of us want to make someone so defensive that they feel a need to defend a particular position to the death.
Example: I had Redding in my top 5 for many years on the belief that his star-level continued into the 1920s, but the new HOF data suggests otherwise. So at this point, he gets downgraded to just off my ballot.

And I'm not sure that pitchers ARE under-represented, but many do feel that way.

This whole exercise vaguely reminds of the 1970s movie/TV show "The Paper Chase."
Survival is based, I think, more on adaptability than dogmatism...

1980 ballot. I put a lot of new guys into the mix. After I posted my tentative ballot on the discussion thread, I took to heart the discussion that followed, and knocked my first basemen (Cepeda and Cash) down a couple of notches.

1. Al Kaline (new) Better than Clemente. Qualified for the HoM at the Heilmann/Waner level. That's not inner circle - there are still a couple of rungs of the ladder above that.
2. Ron Santo (new) Sure, he may be a creature of Wrigley Field - but even if he was, real wins resulted from that. An offensive prime that we can group with legitimate candidates from the left side of the defensive spectrum, but he played 3B. I don't know if making him a 2B at the end rises to the level of 100 worst management blunders - but it can't have been a good idea.
3. Billy Pierce (1, 1, 2, 2, 2) Underappreciated by both the HoF and (so far) us.
4. Juan Marichal (new) Read my comments on his thread. I like him; I just like Pierce more.
5. Larry Doyle (4, 3, 5, 5, 3) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
6. José Méndez (2, 4, 6, 6, 4) Maybe Koufax isn't the right comparison, but maybe Coveleski?
7. Quincy Trouppe (5, 5, 7, 7, 5) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
8. Bucky Walters (8, 7, 9, 9, 7) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148, with a peak that nearly rivals Ferrell's. We elected Lemon - why not Walters?
9. Orlando Cepeda (new) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I might take Cepeda over him.
10. George Van Haltren (6, 6, 8, 8, 6) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
11. Norm Cash (new) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
12. Joe Sewell (10, 8, 10, 10, 8) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice.
13. Ralph Kiner (3, 2, 4, 4, 9) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
14. Frank Howard (----, 10) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
15. Orestes Miñoso (9, 10, 12, 12, 11) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
16. Ken Boyer (15, 14, 16, 16, 12) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
17. Bob Elliott (14, 12, 14, 14, 13) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
18. Jake Beckley (13, 11, 13, 13, 14) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
19. Tommy Bridges (22, 13, 15, 15, 15) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Ferrell had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
20. Dick Redding (12, 9, 11, 11, 16) There seems to be more uncertainty around him lately.
21. Luis Aparicio (----, 17) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
22. Hugh Duffy (16, 15, 17, 17, 18) Nothing new to say after all these years.
23. Rabbit Maranville (----, 19) The appearance of Aparacio on the ballot casts the spotlight in his direction, and I fix an error in my calculations.
24. Mickey Vernon (17, 16, 18, 18, 20) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
25. Nellie Fox (19, 18, 19, 19, 21) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
26. Phil Rizzuto (20, 19, 20, 20, 22) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
27. Cupid Childs (20, 20, 21, 21, 23) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
28. Edd Roush (24, 22, 22, 22, 24) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.
29. Vern Stephens (26, 24, 24, 24, 26)
30. Dobie Moore (27, 25, 25, 25, 27) Short career, high peak.

The influx of newbies pushed Bob Johnson, Rocky Colavito, and Frank Chance out of my top 30.

1980 ballot

Important 1980 events:
-The Evil Empire was consolidated when Ron W. Reagan won election.
-The other Evil Empire seemed to be winning in The Empire Strikes Back.
-Still a third Evil Empire thrived in the Bronx, reaching the ALCS.
-The U.S. boycotted yet another Evil Empire at the Moscow Olympics
-The Talking Heads released Remain in Light featuring “Once in a Lifetime.”
-Bruce Springsteen released The River.
-The Phillies won their phirst World Series.
-Ron Santo entered the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.

No, wait, all of those things couldn't have really happened in one year, could they? I guess the Phils must have lost like always. Sigh.....

1. Ron Santo: Best player available, IMO. At their best, I’d rather have him in my lineup than Al Kaline. But I’d rather have them both! More dominant at his own position than Al Kaline, with lots of peak and a good amount of career despite a relatively small number of seasons.

2. Jose Mendez: The Hall got him right. Utterly dominant peak/prime candidate with hitting and infielding to boot.

3. Juan Marichal: I am impressed by his pitching peak, very highly. I do recognize that he’s got issues around RSI and possibly the buoying effect of the overall excellence of his teams, but on the other hand, he was dominant, pitched a lot of innings and had more to offer me than Koufax or Drysdale did.

4. Al Kaline: Best available RF. Clemente plus several seasons as a productive regular. That’ll play.

5. Bucky Walters: Strong peak/prime pitching candidate with shoulder years too and good hitting.

6. Quincy Trouppe: Best catcher available; the Hall didn’t get him right because it didn’t consider Mexico or North Dakota, nor probably his minor/Carribean league play.

7. Charley Jones: Best available left fielder; dominant hitter; gets blacklist credit from me.

8. Roger Bresnahan: Not as long overlooked as Duffy but close. He’s a solid catcher candidate and should get HOMed before the project catches up to the HOF.

9. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak/prime pitcher with a pretty good amount of highly leveraged relief innings too.

10. Tony Mullane: Even with all the discounting, he strikes me as better than Welch for sure and better also than Griffith. He gets a year of blacklist credit from me. Let's see, 19th C., blacklisted, yeah the HOF won't get him right ever.

11. Ned Williamson: Strong power-hitting peak/prime 3B candidate, who was an amazing fielder. BP lists him with a RATE of 116. That’s higher than Marty Marion, Brooks Robinson, Rey Sanchez, or Bill Mazeroski.

12. Wilbur Cooper: Strong prime pitching candidate.

13. Cupid Childs: Best 2B on the board. Love the peak/prime, don’t mind that there’s nothing else.

14. Hugh Duffy: Best CF on the board. Long overlooked, but IMO on the good side of the in/out line. The HOF's got this one.

15. Elston Howard: He’s right behind Bresnahan and Mackey in my catcher rankings. I’m giving him MiL/NgL credit for 1954 only.

16. Tommy Leach: Recognizing that jschmeagol was right to create a hybrid ranking for him, I did the same, and this is where he comes out. Previously Leach was juuuuuuuuuust off the end of my HOMable CFs, and when placed at 3B he nipped at Stan Hack’s heals. So I think this placement is reasonable…and a long time coming. In addition, I hope it will set some precedent for my handling of Molitor, Killebrew, and Rose.

17. Arlie Latham. WS (with AA discounts) sees three MVP-type seasons, a close fourth, and a decently long career. WARP1 sees three MVP-type seasons and two near-MVP seasons. Latham is an extreme case. He ran a LOT in a time when running was a bigger and more "impactful" part of teams' offenses. In addition, he was an outstanding defender at a position that was more defensively important then than now. Yet he wasn't much of a hitter. Still WS sees him as the best at his position twice, second best four other times, and as an MVP candidate five times. These are all positives in his favor, certainly, and though I don't expect that many agree with my assessment I rank him among the top 20 3B of all time. Near the bottom of the top 20, but in there nonetheless. And among 3Bs whose careers were more than 80% over as of 1979, he probably ranks in the top 15 or 13, in my opinion.

Or maybe I'm crazy? There's always that.

18. Ken Boyer

19. Larry Doyle

20. Vic Willis

21. Burleigh Grimes

22. Bob Elliott

23. Wally Schang

24. Pete Browning

25. Nellie Fox

26. Alejandro Oms


New dudes

Orlando Cepeda: In the 30s or 40s. Not too too close to electable in my opinion. As a 1B he just doesn’t have the long stretch of total dominance you want to see, nor a big pile of career value. Of course I said the same about Bill Terry and look what happened.

Norm Cash: In the 40s or 50s. Further yet from electable. He’s the John Olerud of his era. Actually that’s not quite fair to Olerud. The adenoidal Olerud had two MVP-quality seasons, whereas Cash really had the one big one. But beyond those years, very much alike in that they were often among the better guys in the league, sometimes the best, but never truly dominated the position or the league for a large number of years. Cash appears to me as a “contributor” to the good Tiger teams in the way that Gil Hodges was to the Dodger dynasty---except that Cash had the one big year, which Hodges lacked. Kaline, Freehan, and McClain seem to be the real drivers in Detroit.

Dick McAuliffe: Real good player, another Tiger contributor but ultimately not enough peak, nor enough career for the HOM, nor enough star power to propel to Tigers to a string of World Series appearances. He’s probably in the 60s or 70s.

Old dudes

Minnie Minoso: Within my top 50.

Ralph Kiner: I’m not a huge fan. Like Minoso he’s around my top 50. I actually see them as virtually equally good candidates. Notice I didn’t say equally good players or similar players. Just candidates. They both have a similar number of plusses and minuses, and as far as their type of player is concerned, they do just about as well as you can without getting my out and out endorsement for HOM election. Either is a “tolerable error” in my judgment, but neither is someone I’ll vote for happily.

Dick Redding has slipped downward. His 1920s numbers were just awful, and I can’t really justify his placement among the big names. I don’t know where he’s landed yet, but he’s going down.

Joe Sewell isn’t far away from the top 25, but Jake Beckley is.

>-The Talking Heads released Remain in Light featuring “Once in a Lifetime.”

Album not of the year but of the decade. However, song of the decade is not the one named but "The Great Curve." It would be 17 long years before a "progressive" rock record would reach similar heights with OK Computer and "Let Down."

1980 Ballot
The top three new guys are clearly the cream of the crop. I could see an argument for any of them in the #1 spot.

1) Al Kaline
His peak wasn’t great, but he was good for a long time—long enough to edge out Santo for the top spot.

2) Ron Santo
I find it hard to deny a guy with a 5 year peak of 60+ in WARP and 160+ in Win Shares an elect-me spot.

3) Juan Marichal
Best peak by WARP among pitchers. WS #s aren’t as stellar, but still good enough to land him solidly in the upper-echelon of eligible pitchers.

4) Jose Mendez
I’m thinking Marichal might not be a bad comp for him.

5) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers—yet.

6) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

7) Ken Boyer
53.3 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is better than all other eligible hitters other than Santo.

8) Bob Johnson
Minor League credit moves him into he top 10.

9) Bucky Walters
Similar to Trout, but, thanks to 300 extra IP and an OPS+ advantage of 13 points, Bucky wins out.

10) Joe Sewell
His top 5 WARP is close to Boyer (52.4), but his 5-yr. consecutive Win Shares are a little below Boyer. Overall, both uberstats have them as very similar.

11) Charley Jones
Perhaps an old-timer’s version Ralph Kiner (though I’ve got CJ a little higher). Blackball year credit gets him on the ballot.

12) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 47.4 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career: 88.4 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

13) Charlie Keller
Tied with Kiner and Howard for 2nd best top 3 seasons in Win Shares (unadjusted for season length) just behind Santo. The extra war credit for Keller gets him a spot above Kiner.

14) Billy Pierce
He’s within shouting range of both Trout and Walters. Lower peak sets him back, though.

15) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

The Rest of the Top 50.

16) Dobie Moore—Perhaps the Black Hughie Jennings, but I think he’s got more career value so he makes my ballot (Jennings would be ranked in the 40s).

17) Minnie Minoso—Longevity, mixed with modest peak and some NeL credit gives him the edge over Kiner.

18) Ralph Kiner—149 OPS+ is pretty impressive, but his Relatively short 10 year career makes it hard to rank him much higher. I have given him a small bonus for playing time missed at the beginning of his career due to WWII service.

19) Jake Beckley—Oh so close to the ballot due to career value, still, 37.6 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons is pretty low.
20) Tommy Leach
21) Gavy Cravath
22) Jimmy Ryan
23) Burleigh Grimes
24) George Van Haltren
25) Harry Hooper
26) Rabbit Maranville
27) Norm Cash—solid career, decent peak, but with a steadily growing backlog he gets lost in the shuffle.
28) Fred Dunlap
29) Sam Rice
30) Bob Elliott
31) Fielder Jones
32) Jack Quinn
33) Phil Rizzuto
34) Nellie Fox—I like Dunlap, Maranville, and Rizzuto better among the off-ballot middle infielder backlog.
35) Alejandro Oms
36) Cy Seymour
37) Vern Stephens
38) Quincy Trouppe
39) Orlando Cepeda—His uberstat numbers are eerily similar to Vada Pinson. I would say he’s the epitome of a HoVG player.
40) Dick Bartell
41) Hugh Duffy—He was in a dead-heat with Sisler, who I only voted for once, in 1948. Win Shares likes Duffy more, WARP3 likes Sisler, I’m kinda splitting the difference.
42) Dom DiMaggio
43) Urban Shocker
44) Spotswood Poles
45) Gil Hodges
46) George Burns
47) Carl Mays
48) Bobo Newsom
49) Johnny Pesky
50) Bobby Veach

1980 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Al Kaline 23.1 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 12 AS. Not a no-brainer, but still a clear #1 in this field.

2. Ron Santo 19.0 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. I revisited 3B this week, and this guy clearly came out on top.

3. Dick Redding With recent stats, he may not be very similar to Spahn, but perhaps Roberts. I think his teens peak is higher than we realize. Seems similar to Juan Marichal in some ways.

4. Juan Marichal 22.3 pWS/300IP, 5 CY, 8 AS. He had a high enough peak, for long enough. Not really a tough HOM vote for me at all.

5. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. This guy jumped in my rankings. I didn’t realize how dominant he was during the early 1890’s.

6. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

7. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

8. Joe Sewell 15.8 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. My fraternity brother really received a boost in my rankings.

9. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

10. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

11. Jose Mendez I think that I can’t ignore Mendez, who was probably the pitcher that Ferrell was, and may have been as good a hitter.

12. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

13. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

14. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

15. Ralph Kiner 24.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. Just enough for the ballot.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES


Missing top 10

Minnie Minoso – 21.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS (including Negro Leagues). Really neck-and-neck with Kiner. # 16 in the rankings.

Jake Beckley – 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. As good as tied with Sisler, Terry, Taylor, and Cepeda. Close to the ballot.

Nellie Fox – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Just ahead of Larry Doyle atop my 2B rankings, and very close to the ballot.

New Notables

Orlando Cepeda – 22.8 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 9 AS. Similar value to Sisler, Terry, Taylor, and Beckley. Close to the ballot.

Norm Cash – 24.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Consistent, but not enough. I think I’d take Fournier over Cash.

Dick McAuliffe – 17.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 7 AS. Similar value to his predecessor in Detroit, Harvey Kuenn.

Mel Stottlemyre – 19.7 pWS/300IP, 0 MVP, 5 AS. Seems like the Charlie Buffinton of his day. Fine pitcher, but there were plenty better.

Ron Hunt – 17.1 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 6 AS. I didn’t vote for similar players Miller Huggins or Gil McDougald either.

It would be 17 long years before a "progressive" rock record would reach similar heights

Depends what you mean by heights, i think. Or by progressive. I suspect there's some fans of Pavement, REM, Minutemen, Husker Du, Yo La Tengo, Beck, Meat Puppets, Tom Waits, Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Wilco/Uncle Tupelo, and many others who would ask for greater clarification if you were saying this as part of the defense of a record on your HOM-for-rock-reocrds ballot. ; )

But as I've recently said, thank god we're not doing rock-crit here. We'd all be hacked off at each other all the time because we couldn't provide any kind of reasonable critique of anything we'd say about each other's ideas!

Just don't get me started on how a group could go from OK Computer to Kid A....

Tangentially, you could make some comparisons between the career paths of rockers and baseball players.

Like take the whole NYc underground CBGBs thing of the 1970s.
-Ramones are like Norm Cash: very strong early, then a long career of sameness that feels somehow disappointing.

-Television is like Al Rosen: short, awesome career, period, with Marquee Moon as Rosen's 1951.

-Patti Smythe strikes me as like Eric Davis. She opens well, has a couple good records, then she disappears a while, has some sporadic successes, then one or two good moments toward the end, but never as great as was.

-Talking Heads is like Ron Santo: high achieving for a not-short but not-long time.

-Blondie = Darryl Strawberry or Doc Gooden (minus the drugs, I think)

-Velvet Underground = Chino Smith or Charley Ferguson---world beaters that died young.

It's kind of hard to distinguish the number of records from the number of years in many cases, so sometimes the comparison falls short.

That would be Patti Smith...not Smythe. Pattie Smythe was in some hair band called Scandal. Patti Smith is the NYC Punk Poet.

And the Velvets were long gone by 1976 (the time CB's started doing the Punk Rock thing).

I would compare Johnny Thunders and The Heartbreakers to Gooden & Strawberry...brash, a quick explosion and then destruction from drugs.


You can question me on my baseball knowledge, but don't mess with my Punk Rock!

And of course we're not just talkin' records here. Some live to gig and jam, others live in a hermetically sealed studio. By "progressive" (not a very good word, I admit) I mean the opposite of "roots" music, music in which anything resembling a twang or a blue note has been purged. e.g. Pink Floyd. Beatles more progressive, Stones more rootsy. (Talkin ' 'bout my g-g-g-generation.) God (aka Frank Zappa) managed to do both and make sense of it all. The exception that proves the rule.

Actually Radiohead = Tony Conigliaro? Dwight Gooden?

Rico,

Thanks for the correx! I felt obligated to toss the VU in there since they're the founding impulse of that whole NYC proto-punk thing, but I should have noted their earlier passing.

To take the Strawberry analogy even further, switch it to the NY Dolls, with Johansen's late-career resurrection as the toned-down Buster Poindexter seen as something like Strawberry's resurrection as the spiritually invigorated, clean-up, veteran, lefty-masher DH of his Yankee years.

I thought of the Dolls too...but was trying to stay pure to the CB's era (of course Johnny Thunders was the guitar player in the NY Dolls). I like the Buster Poindexter analogy!

Album not of the year but of the decade. However, song of the decade is not the one named but "The Great Curve." It would be 17 long years before a "progressive" rock record would reach similar heights with OK Computer and "Let Down."

Wow. Looks like we agree on more than just peak baseball players, Sunny. (Which is more obscure, Hughie Jennings or "The Great Curve"? Depends on your audience, I suppose.)

Of course, I risk ridicule now by admitting that I quite liked Kid A--a good example of what Neil Young once referred to as "the ditch." No, it's no OK Computer, but what is? It would have been very easy for Radiohead to just remake OK Computer three or four times, sounding more and more like Coldplay each time; I value their experimentation, even when not always successful (though I suppose if you feel it was never successful, that would make it harder to value).

I guess I woulda liked 3-4 more shots of OK Computer better than what we got, though I consider myself "adventuresome." (E.g. Zappa.) (By the time they became Coldplay, of course, it would definitely be time to bail, though I personally really liked the first two Travis full-length CDs.) Anybody else knocked out by Yoshimi and the Pink Robots? Obscure enough for you? How about Halloween, Alaska? Bela Fleck anyone? The Sundays? Jolie Holland?

John, maybe we should have a thread for HoMies' music?!

B Williams wrote:
Not on Ballot:
--Al Kaline: Sustained verygoodnees. I fail to see why he should be picked over centerfielders like Duffy or Wilson, or corner guys like Kiner or Keller. Heck, I don't even think he'll compare favorably to guys like Ken Singleton or Bobby Murcer when they come up. From a peak POV, he's a thoroughly mediocre candidate.

I don't get this at all. Especially with Minoso in your top 15.

Is there a defense of this thinking somewhere?
Why should he be selected over Duffy? 150% more career Win Shares.
Why Should he be slected over Hack? Hack had 5 seasons with more than 25 Win Shares, and one additional of more than 20 WS. Kaline had 7 seasons with more than 25 Win Shares, and 5 addtional season with 20 or moree win Shares.

Keller and Kaline have 4 30+ WS seasons, Kaline just 3. Keller had just 2 other season however with more than 12 WS, 5 for Kiner. Yeah the war, but Kaline had 16 seasons with more than 12 Win Shares (in additon to the 30 WS seasons).

And Minoso - suppose he had 2 seasons stripped from the begining of this career, and would have racked up 50 more win shares - he's still over 100 Win Shares behind!

Kaline beats Minnie in 30+ WS Seasons, 20 WS seasons, just every thing.

The peak thing is a red-herring. He was in the 10 in AL MVP voting 3 straight years.

I'm not arguing he should be number one, but if he isn't in your top 15 you need to double check your system.

I love Kid A just as much, if not more than OK Computer. It's like choosing between Mays and Mantle.

Yoshimi Battles The Pink Robots is a let down from The Soft Bulleten, though Flight Test and Yoshimi Pt. 1 are both great songs.

The Sundays cover of Wild Horses, famously used in an episode of Buffy The Vampire Slayer, is mediocre at best, a maudlin embarrassment at worst.

Assuming London Calling doesn't count, the best album of the 80s is If I Should Fall From Grace With God by The Pogues.

Bob Dylan is the Babe Ruth of music: the highest peak, very long career and tremendous versatility: power, average, patience, fielding, pitching; folk, blues, country, gospel, rock and roll.

Me, too. If the objection to Al Kaline is lack of peak, I don't see how Minoso and Ken Boyer can be on the ballot. Other than that B. Williams is our new most extreme peak voter, and that is fine, but that claim is undermined by Minoso and Boyer.

The Sundays cover of Wild Horses, famously used in an episode of Buffy The Vampire Slayer, is mediocre at best, a maudlin embarrassment at worst.

I've never been a big fan of covers and this one is no exception. I really liked the Sunday first album though (Reading, Writing and Arithmetic).

London Calling came out in the fall of 1979. You want to talk progressive? How about the Clash going from the three chords of their first album to Sandinista (3 lps of every type of music under the sun).

"Hail to the Thief" is a great, whacked-out album.

Being released in 1979 didn't stop Rolling Stone from naming it the best album of the 80s. . . .

But that's Rolling Stone. We have higher standards here at the HOM.

>The Sundays cover of Wild Horses, famously used in an episode of Buffy The Vampire Slayer, is mediocre at best, a maudlin embarrassment at worst.

I was talking about everything else they ever did. Not that song. (Of course, it was a maudlin embarrassment before the Sundays touched it!)

Inner Circle

1. Frank Zappa
2. The Beatles
3. Bob Dylan
4. Bruce Springsteen
5. Pink Floyd
6. Bela Fleck
7. Mark Knopfler
8. Ray Charles
9. Leonard Cohen
10. Beach Boys
11. Paul Simon
12. Pat Metheny

Veteran's Committee selections--Hank Williams, Louis Jordan, Bob Wills, Jimmie Rodgers, Woody Guthrie. Robert Johnson

But that's Rolling Stone. We have higher standards here at the HOM.

Even the HOF has higher standards than Rolling Stone...not the R&R HOF but the baseball HOF. The Rock and Roll HOF'll take anybody who ever sang in the shower. Yet strangely they haven't taken Ron Santo either.

As for the Soft Belletin, I'd always wondered if the song about the spider bite was really about Dave Hollins.

And about covers being usually awful: I agree most of the way, but see Cash, Johnny, esp. his worn-out been-there rendeition of Beck's "Rowboat" and a haunting waltz-through of Bruce Springsteen's "Highway Patrolman."

I kind of see Elvis like Cap Anson. I think Ruth and Dylan works, but I think thee's an intriguing alterntive. How about if we make Dylan Satchel Paige instead? Given Satch's constant travels, his love of pitching and partying, his sagacious late-career phase, his utter longevity, the many times he remade himself, and especially because Satch's mid-career "dead arm" period coincides with Dylan's "Wiggle Wiggle" creative drought in the mid 1980s. I also like the idea that Satchel was famous yet not really a household sports personality an over-underground figure in organized baseball. That's a lot like Dylan's relationship to mainstream popular music. He's part of it yet not depending on the day or the wind.

Plus then I can make Ruth and Gehrig be Lennon and McCartney....

I thought of Paige for Dylan, and your reasoning works quite well. Lennon and McCartney is more of a Bonds and Kent, I'll leave it to you to figure out which is which.

Johnny Cash's duet with Joe Strummer covering Bob Marley's Redemption Song is one of the strangest things I've ever heard. There's a lot of stuff like that among Cash's Rick Rubin records, some of it really great, some just plain weird.

Hang on, there Sunny, I get having Bela Flick on your ballot, but Pat "Mike" Matheny? : )

Well, we know what to do after the 2008 HoM elections...start the Rock and Roll Hall of Merit elections.

But first we need a constitution.

My modest proposal...

Reverse timelining will be mandatory.

Voters must give bass players a positional adjustment credit.

Voters will have the option of giving credit for time missed due to drug rehab.

A one-year boycott is appropriate for anyone who ever appeared in the halftime show of a Super Bowl.

And of course the key question for the constitutional convention delegation is whether Cheap Trick's popularity in Japan should count.

What about off-stage contributions?

Ruth and Gehrig = Lennon & McCartney Perfect.
That makes Miller Huggins = George Martin
Col Ruppert = Brian Epstein
Earle Combs = Ringo Starr
Herb Pennock = George Harrison

Keith Richards = Ty Cobb?

There's a new Cash album coming this week produced by Rick Rubin...the final songs he ever did. Apaprently it's a grueling listen. Not that the last album wasn't. Danny Boy and Bridge Over Troubled Water are harrowing.

And The r n r hall of fame is a joke. Any West Coast band that did coke lines with Jann Wenner gets in (not to mention Billy Joel- ecchh), but real rock n roll like Iggy & The Stooges and the MC5 don't get in. feh!

This is probably too mainstream for this group, but I love Johnny Cash's cover of "One". And I don't even like U2 much.

Johnny Cash's cover of Nine Inch Nails' "Hurt" rendered the original superfluous.

"One" is a beautiful song! I loved Johnny Cash's rendition, and I still think the U2 cut is great, an amazing meditation on musical mood as well as on whatever it is Bono's singing about (man, God, church, sex, wife, drugs, music, muse, buffaloes, sex, i dunno).

I think the weirdest duet I've heard him do is the one with Bob Dylan that open's Dylan's Nashville Skyline album. Bob's got his country voice on, so he sounds like Kermit the Frog. Johnny's just kind of ploppin' along, and Bob's sort of all over. Neither seems to be in key wiht the other or with anything. It's great in that drunk-friends-on-the-front-porch way...but I wouldn't say either was at the peak of their powers there.

Herb Pennock = George Harrison

Better than being Jumpin' Joe Dugan, I guess!

And The r n r hall of fame is a joke. Any West Coast band that did coke lines with Jann Wenner gets in

That's a riot, nice riff, rico. And I do share your abhorence of all things Joel. (To avoid offending any fans out there, I will not make any snotty references to songs on Storm Front or Glass Houses at this time....) Asking the R&RHOF; to induct The Five or the Stooges is like asking the BHOF to induct Gus Greenlee. They have this slightly (or real) criminal element to them AND they're too underground for the Coop/Rock to get it. I mean the whole White Panther thing is not going to play well on the dais in Cleveland or on Entertainment Tonight.

The Tragically Hip = Dave Stieb.
Radiohead = Nomar Garciaparra - career is shifting, still active, more than useful - quite good, really.
Pearl Jam = Al Kaline.
Johnny Cash = Lou Gehrig.

This could be fun.

I should have said The Bridge insetead of Glass Houses in #79.

I think the weirdest duet I've heard him do is the one with Bob Dylan that open's Dylan's Nashville Skyline album. Bob's got his country voice on, so he sounds like Kermit the Frog. Johnny's just kind of ploppin' along, and Bob's sort of all over. Neither seems to be in key wiht the other or with anything. It's great in that drunk-friends-on-the-front-porch way...but I wouldn't say either was at the peak of their powers there.

There's a bit of the two of them singing "I'm So Lonesome I Could Cry" in Martin Scorsese's No Direction Home film that has that exact feel to it. I think they were both drunk, actually.

Primey for #73.

Agreed: RnR HoF makes Cooperstown look positively rational.

Pat Metheny = George Sisler. Sinusitis knocked out ears about 1990. (If guitar instrumentalists, then, = 1B, then Bill Frisell = Eddie Murray.)

To bring this back to the election for a moment...

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

Santo, Marichal, and Kaline go into my pHOM this “year.”

1980 ballot:

1. Ron Santo (pHOM 1980). I knew I was going to like him, but even I was surprised how much when I actually crunched the numbers. Only Mathews and Baker are clearly better (peakwise), among those we’ve seen so far at third base. It really is hard to believe he’s not in Cooperstown yet.

2. José Méndez (pHOM 1960). Comparable with some of the best ML pitchers of his era, and those are some pretty shiny names.

3. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much (especially with the revelation that they’re not even as bad as they at first seemed).

4. Juan Marichal (pHOM 1980). Best peak of a newly eligible pitcher since Koufax’s. Comes out very similar to Waddell, and Méndez, for that matter—these three are bunched very closely.

5. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I have to say I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least for anyone with as much of a peak emphasis as I have.

6. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Just enough to satisfy my (admittedly small) minimum requirements. Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs.

7. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). Another infielder with a great peak.

8. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

9. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). He’s risen with each reevaluation I’ve done. It’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

10. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

11. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). A lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

12. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). All the hard evidence makes him the best of the backlog catchers, a smidgen ahead of Elston Howard.

13. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). A peak I just couldn’t argue around anymore. I may still have him too low; an outfielder overhaul is probably overdue.

14. Al Kaline (pHOM 1980). It really is amazing how similar he is to Clemente, at least from a peak voter’s perspective. Remarkable consistency. He doesn’t have the peak to hit the top of my ballot, but he’s clearly an HOMer.

15. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book.

16-20: Walters (1968), Rosen (1968), Bresnahan (1973), Redding (1975), C. Jones (1976)
21-25: E. Howard (1976), Browning (1979), Joss, Pierce, Fox
26-30: F. Howard, [Reese], Leach, [W. Ford], [Slaughter], Doyle, Cravath, Berger
31-35: McGraw, H. Smith, H. Wilson, [Doerr], Oms, Minoso
36-40: Boyer, Gomez, Chance, [Wynn], [Lyons], Poles, [Ashburn], Roush
41-45: Pesky, McCormick, J. Ryan, Elliott, Cepeda
46-50: [Lemon], G. Burns, [Rixey], Colavito, Rizzuto, Welch, Van Haltren

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. Midpack at #35.

•Sewell. Back from the dead? There’s just not remotely enough peak here for me. The four new eligibles within my top 50 knock him out of it; he’s literally the first person outside it now (for all the good that does him).

•Beckley. No peak. What more is there to say? Not particularly close to my top 50.

•Redding. Not quite the peak of my favorite unelected eligible pitchers, but he’s close (and in my pHOM). At #18. The new numbers seem to have cast some doubt on him, but I still haven’t seen enough to warrant dropping him.

•Fox. He’s doesn’t have quite the peak to reach my ballot yet, but he’s not too far off, and should definitely get into my pHOM before too long. At #25.

•Cepeda. He has a peak, but it's a pretty small one. Gets into the top 50, but barely, starting off at #45.

•Cash. I don’t see it. As someone put it on the discussion thread (I think?), he’s really a career candidate, not a peak candidate—and beyond that one incredible season, he doesn’t have much to offer a peak voter that guys like Beckley don’t. Not in my top 50.

•McAuliffe. Yet another entry in the “better than I had realized, but not good enough to get into my top 50” brigade. Still, who knew before this project that he was as good as Tony Lazzeri?

1. Al Kaline - career, peak, my type of player

2. Ron Santo - not quite as appealing to me as Kaline, but pretty darn good

3. Mickey Welch - 300 wins should not be an automatic stat to get you in. Everyone says wins were easier to come by back then. Pitchers were used more, and thus able to win more. I guess the pitchers back then weren't aware of this since not many of them won 300 games. Welch may have pitched against worse teams...wasn't Welch and Keefe (who got elected) on the same team, pitching against the same teams for quite awhile? Top 10 pitcher in almost all major pitching categories from 1880-1889. Was never "the" best, but was consistently one of the best over and over.

4. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career.

5. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in, but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part.

6. Joe Sewell - You couldn't strike the guy out! I absolutely love that about his career.

7. Nellie Fox - very close to Sewell in my rankings

8. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in Batting Average.

9. Gavvy Cravath - I looked long and hard at him, and decided I really needed to put more stock into his minor league years. With proper minor league credit now given, Gavvy has enough career to merit a spot on my ballot.

10. George Van Haltren - I welcome George back to my ballot after a long time away.

11. Pie Traynor - I can understand why everyone didn't fall head over heals for him, but I didn't imagine that he would recieve so little support.

12. Minnie Minoso - Initially thought he'd crack my top 10, then reading some discussion I didn't think he'd be top 30, but I've finally settled on him here. He still has plenty of room to move on my ballot though. Spots 14-20 are all easily exchangeable on my ballot.

13. Roger Bresnahan - if he had only caught more games, I'd have him a lot higher.

14. Wally Schang - Lots of extra credit for being a durable catcher.


15. Juan Marichal - Even I didn't imagine that I'd have him this low

16. Dick Redding - Finally has some room to move into my top 20.

17. Ernie Lombardi - I've said it before, I'll say it again, I love catchers, especially one with good career value. Ernie even has some peak to mix in. He didn't strike out, he hit for average, and SOMEHOW he got 27 triples in his career!

18. Bucky Walters - Been iffy on him for awhile. He has been more of a favorite for the peak voters, and not so much for the career voters, but another look at him shows me that he had a bit more career value than I was giving him credit for. Moving him up this high on my ballot is going to help Kiner out on mine too when there is room.

19. Ralph Kiner - Kiner finally breaks into the lower ranks of my ballot. If he could've had 2 more good (not even necassarily great) years, he could've moved up to the top 3 or 4 spots on my ballot. As is, not enough career value for me.

20. Billy Pierce - I like Pierce, I really do. Spots 15-20 are extremely tight. I don't have him ranked as far from Marichal as it may seem.

start the Rock and Roll Hall of Merit elections.
But first we need a constitution.

Voters must give bass players a positional adjustment credit.

as a Bass player... I agree!

and Iggy Pop is downright respectable these days...they even use one of his songs on a Cruise commercial!

would this make:
Mario Mendoza = Ashlee Simpson?

Until they induct Rush, I refuse to acknowledge the existence of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Although, I was there once and it was a pretty fun afternoon.

SABR Convention 2008 in Cleveland, hopefully Rush is in by then so I can visit!

I'm sorry but I see no mentions of one of the two best bands ever (with the Beatles),the Grateful Dead! I would take Europe '72 over pretty much anything mentioned here.

Also, Van Morrison and Jim Croce Deserve mentions as well as the White Stripes.

And can we keep this to baseball?

Hmmm. . . . how about:

The Grateful Dead = Warren Spahn
The White Stripes = Miguel Cabrera

1980 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Santo, Marichal and Kaline).

1. Ron Santo

I’ve got only Mathews and Groh ahead of Santo on the all-time list of full-time 3B (Baker is just behind).

2. Jose Mendez

Bumped again.

3. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

4. Juan Marichal

Of the pitchers whose careers overlapped Marichal’s, I’ve only got Spahn, Roberts, Gibson (and maybe Koufax…I’m glad the two weren’t on the same ballot) ahead of this guy.

5. Dick Redding
6. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

7. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. Rube Waddell

Welcome back to the ballot. Love me those punches, Rube.

10. Al Kaline
11. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

12. Joe Sewell
13. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

14. (N)Ed Williamson

Between him and Mugsy, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

15. Ben Taylor

He’d slide nicely in the 1B void.


16-20. Keller, Minoso, Burns, Veach, Pierce
21-25. Walters, Cash, Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy
26-30. Konetchy, B. Johnson, Trouppe, Cuyler, Childs
31-35. Youngs, Klein, Monroe, Tiernan, Kiner
36-40. Hooper, F. Jones, Traynor, Shocker, Boyer
41-45. Bradley, F. Howard, Roush, Cicotte, E. Howard
46-50. Cepeda, Leach, Chance, Nicholson, Griffin
51-55. Ryan, Bridges, R. Thomas, Schang, Seymour
56-60. Nash, Dunlap, Rommel, Rucker, Beckley
61-65. Elliott, H. Wilson, Hodges, Fox, Byrd

Previous Top 10s:
Duffy is 25.
Kiner is 35.
Beckley is 60.

And to touch on subject #2, the Stone Roses are Smokey Joe Wood. "The Stone Roses" is Joe Wood the pitcher c. 1912, and then after an injury related hiatus (addiction is a form of injury, no?) they return with "Second Coming", which is Joe Wood the 4th OF with Cleveland. After that they get caught up in rumours and scandals - Joe Wood with the Cobb/Speaker allegations...

Ruth and Gehrig = Lennon & McCartney Perfect.
That makes Miller Huggins = George Martin
Col Ruppert = Brian Epstein
Earle Combs = Ringo Starr
Herb Pennock = George Harrison

Keith Richards = Ty Cobb?

Wally Pipp = Pete Best
Urban Shocker = Stuart Sutcliffe
Johnny Keane = Yoko

Johnny Cash's cover of Nine Inch Nails' "Hurt" rendered the original superfluous.

Trent Reznor even said that. He said that once he heard Cash's version, he couldn't listen to his own anymore.

Johnny Cash's cover of Nine Inch Nails' "Hurt" rendered the original superfluous.

Trent Reznor even said that. He said that once he heard Cash's version, he couldn't listen to his own anymore.


I see, so when a Trent Reznor says Cash's version was better than his, we listen, but when ex-ballplayer X says Nolan Ryan was the best pitcher of his generation, we scoff. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Cash's version was listenable. I liked it. I'm not a huge NIN fan. But, please.

Oh, and Huggins and Ruperst should be switched, seeing as how both Huggins and Epstein died young.

Danny Cater= Ron Wood
Mick Taylor= Sparky Lyle

seconding jschmeagol - let's keep the ballot about the baseball

OK- back to baseball...


1) Nellie Fox - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
2) Ron Santo- Terrific hitter, great eye (led league in walks 4 years), excellent fielder (5 gold gloves)
3) Ralph Kiner - 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.
4) Ernie Lombardi - 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
5) Al Kaline- Recognizing his great season early on, I see a long steady career at an above average rate. However, 2 100+ runs seasons, 3 100+ rbi seasons, no 30+ home run seasons, only once with 200 hits leads me to look at Kaline as a hitting version of Don Sutton. Steady excellence, which resulted in some magic numbers (ie 3000 hits) but not inner circle outstanding.
6) Chuck Klein - 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
7)Juan Marichal- 6 20 win seasons, 18th career in shutouts, completed more than half the games he started and 16th career in WHIP.
8) Burleigh Grimes - 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
9) Pie Trayner - .320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
10) Luis Aparicio - nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
11) Sam Rice – Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
12) Rube Waddell- The Randy Johnson of the 20th centuries first decade.
13) Phil Rizzuto - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
14) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
15) Jake Beckley - almost 3000 hits.


close but no cigar-
16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick. Will most likely be back in top 15 next year.
17) Ken Boyer -. MVP. 7 all star games. Better hitter than Brooks Robinson and almost as good in the field.
18) Jose Mendez- So much of his career is anecdotal, it's hard to quantify. But how many years did he truly excel?
19) Mickey Welch
20) Joe Sewell - Just misses, needed a couple of more seasons.
21) Cannonball Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
22) Gil Hodges -
23) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
24) Orlando Cepeda- I wouldn’t have much problem if he eventually got in, but he’s another guy like (Frank Howard last year) who will have his first season eligible as his peak.
25) Billy Pierce -
26) Bill White -
27) Frank Howard –
28) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
29)Charlie Keller
30) Al Rosen
No way newbies
Norm Cash - One truly great year. I don’t want to enter the fray about his bat corking, but given that 1961 was an expansion year, and that he was an admitted cheater, and that he never again batted above .286 or drove in 100 runs…I don’t see why he deserves HOM status.
Dick McAuliffe- I see nothing in his yearly or career stats that merits any consideration

((second try, computer ate previous one I think...))

1980 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality, or RCAP adjusted for defense and timeline. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes (or value above average) higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Al Kaline
Upper half of the HoM.
2- Ron Santo
Could be #1. Haven’t taken the time to sort him and Kaline out.
3- Juan Marichal
Clearly in. Surprisingly (to me) similar to Bucky Walters on career length, and also on quality. Slight bonus for NL league strength vs AL gets him ahead. Sort of like the AL vs NL in 2006; my gosh, what has happened to the pitiful set of 16 NL teams?

4- Bucky Walters (2) [21]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
5- Joe Sewell (3) [6]
Great fielder, very good bat for a shortstop.
6- Jake Beckley (4) [7]
Very fine career, quite understated by Win Shares.
7- John McGraw (5) [34]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen and especially 1890s infielders. Also a brilliant tactician.
8- Ken Boyer (6) [11]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader. Could’ve used another productive year or two. League strength puts him above Elliot.
9- George Van Haltren (7) [16]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
10- Billy Pierce (8) [14]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but no spiked peak. Some bonus value out of the bullpen.
11- Bob Johnson (9) [23]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
12- Minnie Minoso (10) [4]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
13- Cupid Childs (11) [13]
Being an 1890s infielder, short career not held much against him.
14- Frank Chance (12) [57]
Every ballot I howl at the moon (actually I do back-up vocals for KJOK).
15- Ralph Kiner (13) [5]
As a kid I listened to Kiner’s Korner, a wrap-up after Mets games. Never really knew who he was.

Norm Cash and Orlando Cepeda
Similar. More glut for my top 50, but not quite there. I dismiss Cash's 61 a bit, and really hope that we don't rush him in.

Charlie Keller -- Gets bumped this ballot by the new guys, but he’ll "be bok”.

Top 10 disclosures: D Redding #17, J Mendez #21, Duffy around #50, N Fox about #35.

A HoF vote for Cannonball would have dotted the “i”s on his resume.

I’d feel better about Mendez if the 1952 Courier poll had ranked him higher. I completely understand those peaksters who have Mendez or Dobie Moore at #1.

Hugh Duffy was not a great hitter, nor even a very good one. He had one great year, and a bunch of decent ones. He will never make my ballot unless we find consensus that his defense was fabulous.

Nellie Fox. Yeah, he won an MVP in 1959. George Bell won an MVP in 1987, too. Fox was a below-avg slugger in 59, no speed, didn't led his team in runs or RBI altho he led the league in at bats. He was a fine player, but I can't take Nellie over Bill Monroe or Cupid Childs.

1) Kaline (new)-- It is very close between him and Santo; I thin Santo's peak edge wasn't quite big enough to make up for Kaline's much greater career value, but your mileage may vary.
(2) Santo (new)--See above.
(3)Keller (2nd)--One notch better for his prime than guys like Moore, Sisler, Kiner, and Berger.
(4) Roush (3rd)--Solid CF who always ranked in the top 10 in his league offensively. Solid prime; solid career.
(5) Marichal (new)--Arguably could rank 3rd or 4th; like Banks,Clemente, and Koufax-overrated but still comfortably with the HoM.
(6) Mendez (4th)--Very similar to Marichal (also see Waddell, Rube + bat + reliability).
(7) Cravath (5th)--My gradual reconsideration of all old candidates shows that I dropped the ball with him. Great--though scattered prime--and 300-plus WS.
(8) Leach (5th)--Lots of All-Star seasons by every metric, though never an MVP candidate.
(9) Minoso (6th)--Has the prime; negro league credit gives him the career. Ranks very highly among 1950s position players. His prime close enough to Clemente's to raise eyebrows.
(10) Sewell (9th)--Drops a bit when I do season to season comparisons to Sisler but still fully qualified.
(11) Pierce (12th)--Climbs slightly in comparison to other recently- and soon-to-be-elected pitchers.
(12) Duffy (10th)--This week only giving him partial extra credit for all the excess offensive WS.
(13) Van Haltren (11th)--Very good for a very long time, but lots of good 1890s OF's.
(14) Trouppe (13th)--Best catcher on ballot.
(15) Cepeda (new)--His playing time and offensive consistency bring him even with Cash (who on a per at bat basis was better both offensively and defensively); league quality adjustment pulls him 7-10 spots ahead. Very similar to Bill Terry.

Redding's numbers don't impress me; I run hot and cold on Beckley but was fairly peruaded by Kelly's lists (he's in the 20's for me right now); Kiner only had 4 years that scream superstar--that's just not enough; Nellie Fox wasn't good enough with the glove to get elected with his bat.

Next 10: Oms (14th); Elliot (15th); Johnson, Childs, Boyer, Bridges, Cash, Ryan, Beckley, Chance.