Very good crop this "year," but which one(s) go in '83?

As has already been said (so many times, so many ways--that is, in the individual player threads), this is an interesting year. There are 4 potential HoMers but none of them appears to be an inner circle, unanimous, NB, slam dunk type of choice. I could easily see any one of the 4 being a #1 on some ballots, and I can also see any one of the 4 being absent from some ballots. I expect to have 3 of them on mine.

What a load of pitching candidates--Dierker, Downing, Dobson, Nolan, Singer; Carroll, Giusti, Segui. I would have thought that Singer was the best of them, or if not Singer then Downing, but no. And Pat Dobson ahead of Singer and Nolan, not to mention Helms, Melton, May and Bobby Tolan? Who'd a thunk. Tolan was once regarded as a can't miss, but whaddaya know, he missed, pretty much. And the 3B Rader and McMullen beat out the 2B Millan, Rojas and Helms? Boy, is the memory, what's left of it, playing tricks or what?

And a bunch of guys died young--Jensen, Post and especially Ken Boyer at just 51 years of age. I am older than any of the three of them ever got to be. What happened to Ken Boyer??? And speaking of Lloyd Waner...weren't we? Why?

What happened to Ken Boyer???

Lung Cancer

Ken Boyer Obituary

Prelim with scant comments

Allen: I don't care about the off-field stuff. There I said it, and yes, I'm happy with it. I didn't care about Cobb, Hornsby, Medwick, or anyone else's crap, and I won't care about Allen's.
Mendez
Walters
Trouppe
C Jones
Torre: Evem as a hybrid guy, he still ends up higher on my totem poll than Freehan and Brob. I think those who suggest he's off the bottom as a 1B are either a) not giving him a catcher bonus or b) are possibly off the bottom themselves. ; )
Freehan
Brob: See "analysis" below.
Bresnahan
Pierce
Mullane
Cooper
Childs
Duffy
Williamson

Not too much change, just slotting in the newest comers. I had Williams on the bottom last time, and now he slides off the end with three newbies. The key quesiton here is how to rank Brob vs. Freehan. They are as close together as two candidates can be. Brob ranks 15th all-time at 3rd and 10th currently, Freehan 16th all-time and 11th currently. I sometimes run a little stat line that shows me how far form the in/out area of their own position players are at the intervals I like to work from, 3, 5, 10, 15, career.

I'm very unsure how to move on this one. Brob ranks more highly at his position, Freehan sees a slight advantage in the chart above, and I generally prefer peak/prime to ex-prime/career. There's not much contextual difference between them either. So for now, it's Freehan, though I'm not abandoning the possibility that I could move Brob up. The tricky thing is that if I were doing so, it would be because of his defense. But, both he and Freehan were excellent defenders. So if the systems I use miss his defense, then they miss everyone's defense. I suspect high water raises all boats up, or whatever the aphorism is.

Tolan was once regarded as a can't miss, but whaddaya know, he missed, pretty much.

There's an element of randomness in every career. One wonders how much difference it made to his career track that the Cardinals went out and acquired Roger Maris. Tolan held up pretty well as the 4th outfielder at the age of 21 in 1967 (albeit just a 95 OPS+), but in 1968, Flood was healthier (hence less CF playing time) and Schoendienst's handling of the RF situation started looking a little more like a platoon, in which case the lefty Tolan wasn't so well suited to spelling Maris and he lost some playing time to right-hand hitters (Simpson, Davis). The question about Tolan is how he would have faired as an everyday RF in '67-'68 and whether his development would have accelerated any. But he did get a shot: traded at 23 for the 30 year old Vada Pinson, clearing the way for him to be an everyday CF.

Now I realize that I don't remember something very important about him: what injury (assuming it was that) cost him the entire 1971 season?

---

Gary Nolan was a very exciting pitcher as a 19 year old rookie, with some huge high-strikeout games. By his late 20's he was hanging on, trying to win games without striking people out. And he was out of the league at 29.

what injury (assuming it was that) cost him the entire 1971 season?

Torn achilles tendon, I believe. Not an injury players came back from in those days.

I'm starting a re-evaluation this year. First step, re-rank players according to position.

Here's how I stand on catchers:

1. Quincy Trouppe. I see him as having outstanding seasons in 1939, 1941 and 1946-48. It's a little odd that he didn't fare better against the war-time weakened opposition but that shouldn't downgrade his excellent seasons on either side.

2. Ernie Lombardi. Lombardi has the two outstanding seasons in 1938 and 1942 so his peak isn't quite as nice as a few of the other guys on this list. However, his prime was longer as he picked up gray ink in more years than any other catcher.

3. Joe Torre. Torre had four outstanding seasons in 1964, 1966, 1970 and 1971 though that last one was at third base. He was a more dominating player in his peak years than Lombardi, but his prime wasn't quite as long.

4. Elston Howard. Howard is the big beneficiary of this re-eval. I discovered that I wasn't giving him credit for his war service or integration. That moves him up ahead of Freehan.

5. Bill Freehan. Freehan is the best defensive catcher on the ballot and the last one that I would consider HoM-worthy.

6. Wally Schang. Schang has some nice rate stats in his best seasons, but his career numbers are well behind the guys at the top, and he doesn't have the Negro League credit or defensive prowess of Howard or Freehan.

7. Roger Bresnahan. Bresnahan is the catcher's example of a turn-of-the-century phenomenon: great players becoming player/managers, thus losing playing time and career value. The Hall of Fame enshrined a lot of these guys but when we look only at the playing career, it just isn't enough.

Freehan is the best defensive catcher on the ballot and the last one that I would consider HoM-worthy.

Yet Freehan's the only one who had MVP-type years <u>as a catcher</u>. (excluding Trouppe here)

I just updated the At-Bats file, and when I looked at the overall graph, I said to myself "Hey, I can see the Korean War!" But, when I looked at the league breakdown, it's all in the AL - the NL was climbing steadily. And when I looked at who was there, I was a little surprised at what I found. In 1952-53 (where everybody's on the ballot now), the AL does OK in pitchers, but has only 4 HoM position players - Mantle, Berra, Doby and Williams (plus Mize as a PH). The NL has 10 (Robinson, Campanella, Reese, Irvin, Slaughter, Ashburn, Musial, Snider, Mathews and Mays). There are reasons for the disparity - integration was faster in the NL (3 black players vs. 1), several guys in the AL hitting a wall at once (DiMaggio, Boudreau, Gordon, Doerr), and plain old coincidence. But that still looks to me like a bigger gap than you really should have. Something to keep in mind as far as Minoso and Fox go? (Also Rizzuto, Stephens, Aparicio, and Rosen, looking down the ballot.)

Oops, that should have been 4 black players in the NL vs. 1 in the AL. I'm not sure who I was forgetting. And before sunnyday points it out, I'll add that it is certainly possible that the "missing players" were not in the AL, they were stuck in the Negro Leagues because they didn't get a fair shake.

Torn achilles tendon, I believe. Not an injury players came back from in those days.

Tolan was excellent in 69 & 70, including having great speed to not only play CF, but he LED the NL in SB in 1970, right in the middle of what would have been 9 consecutive SB crowns for Lou Brock.

The injury took his speed, and his hitting was never the same.

The eligible list looks like a late 60s Astro reunion - Wynn, Dierker, Radar, Guisti. Also a fond goodbye to one of my old ballot favorites Bob Johnson, one of the only reasons to follow the Philadelphia A's in the late 1930s.

Indian Bob Johnson obits

To me the most intriguing of the down-ballot/off-ballot newbies are Bill Melton and Carlos May, two guys I woulda sworn had more of a career than they did. I remember both as very good (not as in HoVG, but very good) journeyman type players, with maybe an all-star season mixed in, but both ended up with about 120 WS.

The White Sox had been contenders throughout most of the '60s, usually with great pitching and mediocre offense, but by 1968 they were down in 8th place, 36 GB, and Eddie Stanky was fired and Al Lopez brought back. The offense still sucked and the team ERA was 4th in the league--Horlen, John and Fisher pitched well as starters, Wilbur Wood, Wilhelm and Locker were one of the great bullpens of all time, though Gary Peters had a pretty bad year. Pete Ward led with 15 HR and tied with Tommy Davis for the team lead with 50 RBI. The team BA was .228. Melton played in 34 games as a 22-year-old rookie.

In 1969 the pitchers all came back and the ERA ballooned to 4.21 so they finished 29 GB in the West (41 GB the Orioles, the Eastern champs). But the offense was rebuilt around Melton (23 HR-87 RBI) at 3B and Carlos May (18-62) in LF. The increase of almost 200 runs scored was partly the changing conditions--the O's also scored 200 more runs, but the Tigers only 30 more, the Red Sox 100 more, the Twins and A's about 200 more, but the Yankees and Indians only a few more. Lopez departed early in the year and Don Gutteridge took over as manager.

In 1970 the Sox dropped to 42 GB the Twins as the pitching continued to implode and the offense held its own. I have Melton as the #4 3B in the league behind Brooks, Harmon and Tommy Harper at 33-96-.263, still just 24 years old. May went 12-68-.285. Ed Herrmann had a big year at C but the rest of the offense still stunk. I mean Gail Hopkins at 1B and Walt (No-Neck) Williams in RF-stunk.

In 1971 they got within spitting distance of .500 but 22.5 GB the A's. May moved to 1B and went 7-70-.294 while Melton was 33-86-.269. I have both May and Melton as #3 at their positions in the AL. The pitching improved radically as Wilbur Wood took a spot in the rotation and threw 334 IP. Late in the season Gutteridge was fired and Chuck Tanner came in, and stayed through 1975.

1972 was the year they added Dick Allen and contended before finishing 5.5 GB the A's. May went back to LF and was the best LF in the AL by my reckoning, but Melton hurt his back and played about 1/3 of the year.

In 1973 the Sox went backwards as Allen broke his leg and played in 72 games. Melton, though, was back and went 20-87-.277 at age 27. May split time between DH and LF and went 20-96-.268. In 1974 they played .500 ball but Wood and the pitching declined a bit to offset the improved offense. Allen was back though he "retired" late in the year. Melton's decline set in at age 28 (21-63-.242) and ditto May at age 26 (!) (8-58-.249).

In 1975 they dropped 20.5 GB as Melton hit just 15 HR, the least of his career other than the injury year. May, splitting time at 1B, LF and DH, went 8-53-.271. Now finally it appears the Sox were putting a team around their 2 big guns--Orta at 2B, 23-year-old Bucky Dent at SS, Brian Downing at C, and 20-year-old Chet Lemon came up for a cup of coffee. But their 2 big guns were declining at a very young age and the pitching continued at an un-Sox-like 3.93 ERA, Wood was over 4.00, though 23-year-old Goose Gossage was pretty effective out of the pen.

Melton was dealt to the Angels in the off-season--he played 2 seasons and just 168 games before retiring at age 32 with the bad back. May was dealt to the Yankees after 20 games. He too played just the 2 seasons in '76 and '77 before his ML career ended at the tender age of 29. The Sox' youth movement got them up to 3rd place in '77 with Bob Lemon manning the bench. The pitching continued to struggle but the offense got up over 800 runs for the first time since 1936 (yes, you read that right, 1936). Melton's successor at 3B, Eric Soderholm, hit 25 HR and .280 (a very Meltonish season actually) while May's successor(s) Ralph Garr in LF hit .300 and Oscar Gamble at DH hit 31 HR, in this case a bit of an improvement over Carlos.

But that was the high point and there was virtually nobody left from that '77 team the next time they got over .500 under Tony LaRussa in 1981.

Anyway, Melton and May were even better than I remembered in terms of all-star caliber seasons (not necessarily 1st team all-star, but #2-3-4 at their position) but the White Sox never put much other offense around them, and their pitching was declining pretty dramatically other than a couple of monster seasons from Wilbur Wood. So other than the Year of Dick, not much happened. And what can you say about guys who peter out at age 27-29 other than "so long"?

Our top 31 finishers in our last election drew support from at least 11 voters - below this, no man got more than 9 votes. Seems like a good place to draw a line.

Breaking the top 31 into pitchers and hitters, and also by the most recent 5 decades (1930 thru 1970s) and the previous half-century (1880s to 1920s):

era / type hitter pitcher
all years .... 25 .... 6
1880-1929 . 12 .... 4
1930-1979 . 13 .... 2

It appears that many 15-man ballots contain ZERO pitchers (be they MLB or Negro leagers) whose prime years were after 1930.
This in spite of the fact that we have to date elected fewer pitchers in the modern half-century than in th eyears before.
I'd encourage those voters for whom the shoe fits to consider if they are representing moundsmen from all eras.

I've said this before, but just when pitchING is becoming more important (more "3 true outcomes"), the workload is being distributed more widely and pitchERS are becoming less important, individually. Just because 50 percent of the game is 90 percent pitching, doesn't necessarily mean that 50 percent of 90 percent of the most valuable players are pitchers.

I can understand reducing the threshold for modern pitchers because nobody is pitching 300 innings anymore, but I can only see reducing it soooo much. And if the result is fewer pitchers in the HoM, well, it's analogous to there being relatively few PH specialists or RPs.

I haven't done a prelim ballot in decades, but I thought the relative placement of Robinson, Williams, Freehan, Allen and Torre was important this year.

1. Brooks Robinson (A-) – I’m actually not that impressed with Brooksie – Buddy Bell with great defence I guess. Not in my top-125 of all-time. Still, better than the backlog, all of whom you could make good arguments ought to be excluded from the HoM.

2. Mickey Welch (A-) – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Billy Williams (B+)– What’s not to like? 1400 runs? Check. 1400 rbi? Check. 130 OPS+? Check. 30th all-time in total bases? Check. Only Baines and Dawson are eligible non-HOFers with more total bases than Billy.

4. Burleigh Grimes (B+) – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

5. Jake Beckley (B+) -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

6. Dick Redding (B) – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Nellie Fox (B) -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. Rube Waddell (B-) -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

9. Ralph Kiner (B-)– He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. A freak pick on my ballot with his woeful ~1450 hits, but I just like everything else a lot. Hair splitting between here and Allen.

10. Addie Joss (C+) – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage.

11. Orlando Cepeda (C) – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

12. Dick Allen (C) – also not much better than Colavito/Cash/Howard and barely worse than Kiner. The crazy high OPS+ is certainly impressive (sandwiched between Tris Speaker and Willie Mays on the all-time list), but the career is short – 1800 hits from a bat first candidate is tough to take for me.

13. Jose Mendez (C) – His hitting makes a difference for me. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Pierce (who I have in the 40s), Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin, the best of whom is at 26 on my ballot.

14. George Van Haltren (C) – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

15. Jimmy Ryan ( C) – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

16. Sam Rice ( C)-- 2987 hits speaks to me.

17. Pete Browning (C-) – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

18. Joe Torre (C-) – in the Boyer, Doerr, Gordon ballpark.

19. Freehan (C-)– best catcher on the Board – I have flip flopped him with Bresnahan, but think both should be on the outside looking in – as others have said, Freehan is the veritable definition of a bubble candidate.

20. Pie Traynor (C-)-- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
21. Ken Boyer (C-) – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach.
22. Joe Sewell C- – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense.
23. Tommy Leach C- – 300+ WS has to mean something.
24. Roger Bresnahan (C) – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

25. Minnie Minoso C-
<b>

1983 Prelim ballot

1) Billy Williams - 3rd in 1982, not a surprise
2) Joe Torre - needs a catcher bonus to get past...
3) Dick Allen - an absolute monster hitter, best on the board. He could also run the bases and play 3B occasionally.
4) Bob Johnson - different player but quite similar in value to
5) Brooks Robinson - I don't give extra credit on the 1st ballot to place conservatively. Extra postseason credit would nudge him up to 4th.
6) Billy Pierce - good to see him gaining traction. I'm with TomH that modern pitching is undervalued by the electors
7) Norm Cash
8) Ken Boyer - moves up a notch this year to separate him from
9) Orlando Cepeda
10) Jim Wynn - I know almost nothing about his career but I participate to learn things about players like this
11) Ralph Kiner
12) Quincy Trouppe - Has 6 points of OPS+ and 300+ plate appearances on Freehan. That's an extra season of value. Trouppe was at least an average defender at catcher and I think he would have been a major league all-star 7-10 times.
13) Bob Elliott - one of the best RH hitters during the 40s
14) Tommy Bridges
15) Charlie Keller
16) Dutch Leonard
17) Jake Beckley - will the water drop low enough to elect him?
18) Minnie Minoso
19) Joe Sewell
20) Dick Bartell
21) Jose Mendez - If we elect him in the next couple years it won't be with my help but I'm not opposed to anyone in my top 35 making it in.
22-25) Virgil Trucks, Frank Howard, Dobie Moore, Rube Waddell
26-30) Chuck Klein, Boog Powell, Gavy Cravath, Jack Quinn, Urban Shocker
31-35) Hilton Smith, Tommy Leach, Bill Freehan, Edd Roush, Wally Schang

Freehan was the best of his era but he wasn't _that_ much better except for a 2 year stretch of MVP level play. He made 11 all star teams but didn't deserve at least 4 of them.

How does Joe Torre NOT make the HoF through the veterans commitee when you can consider his managerial career?

DL, is Bob Johnson really the best available player before 1950? The only player from before 1950 worthy of a top 11 slot? Your ballot reads oddly (reverse) chronologically from top to bottom.

The crazy high OPS+ is certainly impressive (sandwiched between Tris Speaker and Willie Mays on the all-time list), but the career is short – 1800 hits from a bat first candidate is tough to take for me.

Daryn,

Sorry, I'm feeling snarky.

Dick Allen 1848 hits in a .260 batting average environment.
Larry Doby 1616 hits in a .266 environment.
Jackie Robinson 1518 hits in a .273 environment.
Earl Averill 2019 hits in a .293 environment.
Elmer Flick 1752 hits in a .266 environment.
Hughie Jennings 1527 hits in a .287 envrionment.
Mickey Cochrane 1652 hits in a .294 environment.
Jimmy Collins 1999 hits in a .279 environment.
Frank Baker 1884 hits in a .266 envrionment.
Lou Boudreau 1769 hits in a .265 environment.

But Doc,

Not that I agree with Daryn's view, but more than half of the guys on your list are at least partly glove guys (Robinson, Jennings, Cochrane, Collins, Baker, Boudreau were all strong defenders at glove positions in addition to being strong hitters). I would not be surprised to learn that Daryn, who has long been primarily a career voter, was lukewarm to negative about most of these guys, also.

Sunny,

I had Doby, Averill, Flick, Baker, Jennings and Boudreau lower or relatively lower than Allen on my ballot, so at least I am consistent. Cochrane is a catcher and Collins at least had 2000 hits. Jackie is Jackie. I can't remeber what I did with Baker.

Kiner on my ballot is the possible inconsistency.

Not that I agree with Daryn's view, but more than half of the guys on your list are at least partly glove guys (Robinson, Jennings, Cochrane, Collins, Baker, Boudreau were all strong defenders at glove positions in addition to being strong hitters). I would not be surprised to learn that Daryn, who has long been primarily a career voter, was lukewarm to negative about most of these guys, also.

Indeed. I couldn't have said it better myself. In fact, I didn't.

I was misquoted out of context!

I think a few things are driving my focus on recent players. One is the generally longer careers of modern players, I vote on the whole career and I'm giving credit for a player performing at a high level for a long period of time when it may have been more unusual in the past. It's not season length though, I've adjusted that pretty well across eras.

I'm using WARP numbers but I mainly look at PRAA, FRAA, BRAA to try to mitigate changes in replacement value. I'm comfortable that the value of the average major leaguer hasn't changed as much as the value of the replacement major leaguer. If WARP has an error here though I'm probably picking it up.

I was misquoted out of context!

I did not make comparisons to that hitter.

I was stupid in context! Point ceeded to the gentlemen from Indiana and Canada.

I took the opportunity to fix some wrongs (or, percieved wrongs) on my spreadsheet, and rank the elegibles by position. Before building a ballot, I´ll share the position rankings, with some of the more intersting candidates:

Catchers: Torre, Trouppe, Freehan, Bresnahan
First Basemen: Allen, Beckley, Taylor, Cash, Cepeda
Second Basemen: Childs, Fox...
Third Basemen: Robinson, Boyer (both are very close to each other), Traynor, Elliott, McGraw
Shortstops: Sewell, Stephens...... Moore
Left Fielders: Williams, Kiner, Johnson, Keller, Howard, Miñoso
Center Fielders: Oms, Wynn, Ryan, Van Haltren, Browning, Roush, Duffy
Right Fielders: Cravath (I dropped the ball on him earlier), Klein...
Pitchers: Mendez, Pierce, Redding, Waddell, Dean, Gomez...

Normally, I´d like to have at least the top player on each position in the ballot, but this is a flexible guideline.

Baby arrived! Natalie Noora Mary Spencer, 6 pounds 3 ounces. Emergency C-Section with a cord prolapse, but fortunately everyone is fine now. I might not be posting for a little while...

Congratulations, Jim!

Congrats!

Yay for Jim Sp and Natalie Sp!!!!!

And yay for Mrs. Jim Sp, of course!!!!

Mazel Tov

Juan, you are heavy on hitters, weak on gloves, especially weak on SSs who were defensive standouts--your SSs are the big-hitting kind.

Ah, to bask in the afterglow of the 1982 season! The son of OCF was born in September of that year, in Austin. (He's the one who showed me baseball-reference, from which I found Primer, from which I let myself get sucked in to the HoM. As far as I know, he has never registered or posted here, but I'm pretty sure he reads this stuff.)

Now that Whitey's boys have done it, I'm back to being a Cardinal fan. But as I lived at least partly in Madison from the fall of '77 through the spring of '81, I've got an appriciation for the Brewers as well. Some thoughts on the Brewers (I'll get back to the Cardinals later):

Paul Molitor was a great leadoff hitter when healthy. Compared to the other great leadoff hitters of the 80's, he had a lower OBP - but he still scored runs in bucketfuls. Part of it was his extra base hits, and part was that he was an extremely good baserunner, above and beyond his base stealing. I qualified that with "if healthy" but he was totally healthy in 1982, and he scored 136 runs.

Note on lineup construction: there's absolutely nothing wrong with having your best hitter batting second. In fact, in many cases, it might be the best thing you can do. Now, is there any parallel - any case of a shortstop batting second in the order as the best hitter on the team in a high-average, medium HR, lots of XBH, good speed style? Why, yes there is; equalize the context, and Alex Rodriguez, 1996 is as close a match for Robin Yount, 1982, and I can imagine. The biggest context difference: Rodriguez didn't have a great leadoff hitter batting in front of him. Both had plenty of bats coming up behind them.

Gorman Thomas batting 6th? Given that lineup I probably would have batted him cleanup, but it hardly matters, and it just goes to show how many weapons they had. This bunch had a team OPS+ of 121.

A team OPS+ of 121 and a team ERA+ of 95. That's very unusual for a pennant winning team. (And yes, Vuckovich as Cy Young was some kind of joke.)

there's absolutely nothing wrong with having your best hitter batting second. In fact, in many cases, it might be the best thing you can do. Now, is there any parallel - any case of a shortstop batting second in the order as the best hitter on the team in a high-average, medium HR, lots of XBH, good speed style?

Derek Jeter- 2006

8. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 07, 2006 at 10:56 PM (#2130929)
Freehan is the best defensive catcher on the ballot and the last one that I would consider HoM-worthy.

Yet Freehan's the only one who had MVP-type years as a catcher. (excluding Trouppe here)

Lombardi played every single game in his career, including his 1938 MVP season, at catcher. Torre's best season (his MVP season of 1971) was at 3B, but his 2nd through 4th best seasons were all years in which he played more games at catcher than at other positions. Elston Howard played a bit of outfield and first base in his career but the year that he won his MVP (1963), he only played catcher. Your statement is false.

Juan, you are heavy on hitters, weak on gloves, especially weak on SSs who were defensive standouts--your SSs are the big-hitting kind.

Well, from what I´ve seen, Sewell was a pretty decent glove himself. And the glove specialists (Rizzuto, Aparicio) are too weak hitting for my liking. I liked Bartell better (had him above Moore, in these new rankings).

Although some gloves in other positions will probably get boosted, relative to last year. However, I remain skeptical of good glove stats, unless they are supported by reputation or discussions here.

OCF, those Brewers were great fun to watch, and "Harvey's Wallbangers" an all time great nickname!

Yay for Jim Sp and Natalie Sp!!!!!

Ditto!!

Yount in '82:
2nd in BA (1 point behind Willie Wilson)
10th in OBP
1st in SLG
1st in OPS and OPS+ (166)
and for the counting categories:
1st in total bases
1st in hits
tied for 1st in doubles
3rd in triples
hit 29 HR; it took 30 to be in the top 10
2nd in runs scored (behind Molitor, who was batting in front of him)
4th in RBI (as a #2 hitter)
14-3 as a base stealer

Rodriguez in '96:
1st in BA
8th in OBP
4th in SLG (there were sluggers in '96 the like of which didn't exist in '82)
5 in OPS, 5th in OPS+ (160)
and for the counting categories:
1st in total bases
2nd in hits (behind Molitor!)
1st in doubles
(didn't hit triples)
36 HR; it took 39 to be in the top 10
1st in runs scored
8th in RBI (didn't have a Molitor-quality leadoff hitter in front of him)
15-4 as a base stealer

Is Jeter 2006 really going to match that profile?

Listed my catcher rankings earlier. Now for first base:

1. Orlando Cepeda. He has the best career numbers of any first baseman available, and I like his peak more than the others as he compiled black ink in a variety of seasons instead of just one.

2. Ben Taylor. A beneficiary of the re-eval. He looks like Jake Beckley with black ink, considering that Holway lists him as the MVP for 1914 and a league leader as late as '20 and '21. He might even be better than Cepeda.

3. Jake Beckley. The longest prime for eligible first baseman and some great career stats. His lack of peak keeps him behind the others but shouldn't keep him out of the HoM.

4. Luke Easter. The toughest first baseman to place. His MLB seasons at the ages of 34-36 are every bit as good as Cash's 26-28 (if not better). And he was apparently a starter for St. Louis as early as 1939 and 1940. He could be better than anybody else on the ballot, but the incomplete record keeps him from placing higher.

5. Gil Hodges. A 60-year-later version of Jake Beckley. However, his career numbers fall well short of Beckley and Cepeda.

6. Norm Cash. We seem to be split into Cash camps and Cepeda camps. I'm not in the Cash camp. He looks a lot like Hodges except he has that one outstanding near-MVP season in 1961. Even with that, his career numbers still trail Hodges by one more outstanding season.

7. Frank Chance. Like Bresnahan, his career numbers were greatly diminished by his time as a player/manager but his playing record isn't enough by itself for induction.

Chris F: what are you classifying Dick Allen as, in terms of position? Which one of your lists will he be on?

I was going to include him in the list of third baseman. I realize that he played more at first base, and that third base only accounts for about 1/3 of his career. However, he did have enough time at third to get 1/3 of the positional bonus that I give to C/2B/SS/3B. I did pretty much the same thing with Killebrew and Tommy Leach.

Second Base:

1. Nellie Fox. I consider Fox to clearly be the best second baseman eligible. His length of prime and career numbers dwarf those of the other candidates.

2. Larry Doyle. Similar career numbers to Cupid Childs but he's much more dominating in terms of peak and prime.

3. Cupid Childs. He's above my personal cut-off line and by way of comparison, I'd be more likely to vote for Childs than for Bresnahan or Chance.

4. Bill Mazeroski. The greatest defensive second baseman ever but oh, those offensive numbers are awful. Even with several more years and longer seasons, his career totals are somewhat comparable to Doyle and Childs.

Am I missing any second baseman? Any Negro League players worth considering? I know there's Bingo DeMoss but by all accounts he's a NeL version of Mazeroski.

Am I missing any second baseman? Any Negro League players worth considering?

There are the old-timers, from before the organization of the leagues: Sol White and Bill Monroe. It should be possible to find old threads on them. Quite a bit of the information we do have is from a book that Sol White wrote. We did already enshrine one second baseman in Frank Grant.

Yeah, Bill Monroe and Sol White.

And (in order ;-): Schoendienst, Dunlap, Lazzeri, Evers. All are better than Maz.

My overall rating right now is Doyle, Fox, Childs, Monroe, Schoendienst, Dunlap, Lazzeri, Evers, White. And I can never remember what position A. Wilson, Clarkson, Scales and M. Williams played, but they would be next along with Del Pratt. And considering we know so little (okay, I know so little) about them, they could belong much higher on the list.

I guess my real point is that there are as many good 2B candidates (regardless of the order) as 1B and catcher.

Chris F, I have Bill Monroe at about #20, higher than Fox or Doyle as a 2Bman.

Bill's lack of HoM support seeems to be that we don't have the data on him that we do for the later NgL stars. We did elect some pre-1915 black infielders, particularly Frank Grant and Home Run Johnson. Johnson was elected by the preponderance of anecdotal evidence. Grant, who played years before Monroe, was elected in one of our "down" (well, we have to elect Somebody) periods when the backlog rose to the top. I suspect if you took a poll today of which player to honor, Monroe or Grant, it would be very close.

I still think Monroe, via the evidence in his thread, is as worthy of induction as Mendez or Redding. But I'm definitely in the minority there.

Lurker here. I found this site back when the HOF announced the results of its Negro League election. For an online community, you guys have amazing discipline. Every time, it's last year's results are up, let's start the next year's discussion. I've reached the conclusion that Grandma is at least three different guys.

Bingo.

Prelim Ballot:

1. Dick Allen: I'm not convinced he wasn't a better Gary Sheffield. Like Sheffield, with his numbers, the headaches were worth it.
2. Ralph Kiner: Seven Home Run crowns. Best peak/prime on ballot. He contributed more with the bat than Robinson/Freehan did with the glove, by a wide margin, wider in my opinion than the gap between Brooks/Bill's bats and Kiner's glove.
3. Jose Mendez: Best pitcher on the ballot by a wide margin. I hope he gets in, and soon.
4. Joe Torre: I'm not sold that his defense was as bad as advertised behind the plate; he had a tremendous arm, and his numbers are good for a third baseman. He's close to the three below him. Very close.
5. Billy Williams: First of the "career" guys on my ballot. I can't justify him any lower. He belongs in the HOM, and will get there, soon.
6. Brooks Robinson: Tremendous glove, OK bat. Might move below:
7. Bill Freehan: Defense counts at catcher, and his was fantastic. Pretty decent bat during his peak.
8. Minnie Minoso: He might still slide lower as I figure out what to do with him. Part of a group of about 20 guys that probably belong in at some point.
9. Joe Sewell: Never struck out, decent glove at a premium position, decent OPS +.
10. Billy Pierce: His peak is pretty darn good for a 1950's pitcher. A little more craeer value, and he'd be real close to Mendez.
11. Hugh Duffy: Good glove, fantastic peak with the bat. 16.72 RC/27 in his age 27 season. That's pretty dang good.
12. Ken Boyer: Close to Brooks with the glove, close with the bat. A little less career puts him here.
13. Rube Waddell: What could have been. Awesome at his peak. Pretty good prime. With more IP, he's up there with Mendez.
14. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close to Kiner with war credit, but Kiner did it. Keller could have.
15. Cupid Childs: Youthful years among the best for a second baseman. Good glove for his time.
16. Dobie Moore: He'll be top 10 in some of our later backlog years.
17. GVH: Career guy.
18. Pete Browning: Very close in value to GVH.
19. Ben Taylor: Re-evaluation puts him ahead of Beckley, slightly. His glove is why.
20. Norm Cash: Same as above. His peak is the reason why.
21. Frank Howard: I can't believe I have him this low.
22. Chuck Klein: Poor man's Keller.
23. Jake Beckley: I can't see him getting into my top 15 anytime soon after my re-eval.
24. Dick Redding: Another guy I re-evaluated. He's not as close to Mendez as I thought.
25. Addie Joss: Best peak for a pitcher out there. No career, though.
26-35: Nellie Fox, Charley Jones, Dizzy Dean, Gavvy Cravath, Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe, Sam Rice, Pie Traynor, Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn.

Thanks guys. I was reminded of Bill Monroe when I ran across his name in the Dick Lundy thread. I'll go ahead and give him another look as well as White, Schoendiest, Dunlap, Lazzeri and Evers.

Before posting a reconsidered list of second baseman, here's what I have for shortstop:

1. Luis Aparicio. I like the longevity, the defense, hits and the steals. And he played long enough to build up the best career totals of eligible shortstops.

2. Joe Sewell. Similar career numbers to Maury Wills, but he was a more complete player and has much better rate stats.

3. Maury Wills. A lesser version of Aparicio.

4. Dick Lundy. He looks like Vern Stephens with a couple extra seasons.

5. Vern Stephens. An extra-base hit and RBI machine, but his shorter career kept him from building up as much value as the guys ahead of him.

6. Johnny Pesky. We elected the war-credit second basemen but not the shortstops. This is where Pesky ends up with three years of war credit.

7. Herman Long. A slugging shortstop from the 1890s.

8. Phil Rizzuto. Not that either are elite shortstops but it strikes me as kind of odd that Scooter is in the Hall of Fame while Pesky is not.

9. Dick Groat. He gets a little bit of war credit for his two years in Korea but I would hope we never get this deep into the backlog.

As for Dobie Moore: If the peaksters eventually enshrine him, I won't raise a fuss. But I just can't vote for a guy who's career was cut short on both ends. He's a cautionary tale (like Gooden or Strawberry) but not a HoMer.

Preliminary Ballot for 1983

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) B. WILLIAMS -- Yes, he is similar to Minoso, but slightly better for slightly longer. The difference in ranking is mostly due to NL vs AL. Prime 1962-73. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) 1972; WARP adds 1963, 1964; WS adds 1965 in RF. Other star seasons include 1962, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. HM in 1973.

2) B. ROBINSON -- I thought he would outpoint BW using WARP, but the AL discount offsets the fielding bonus. He outscores BW using Win Shares. This is a close call. Very long prime contributing value useful at a championship level. Prominent part of a dominant team of the era. OTOH, no season would be confused with the best player in baseball. Prime 1960-1974. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1962. Other star seasons include 1960, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1971, 1974. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1961, 1969, 1970. Best fielding MLB 3B in 1967, 1968, 1969 by both WARP and WS. Each system adds other seasons but with no consensus.

3) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

4) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

5) D. ALLEN -- No demerits for disruption (at least yet). WARP intensely dislikes his fielding in many seasons. Prime 1964-1974. Best player candidate, 1964, 1972. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1972; WS adds 1964, 1965, 1966 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1967, 1971 at 3B, 1968 in LF, 1974 at 1B. HM in 1969 at 1B.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

8) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

9) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

10) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

11) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

12) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

13) J. TORRE -- Still evaluating; will move up depending on amount of catcher bonus. Placement is with no bonus. Prime 1963-1973. Best player candidate 1971. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1964, 1965, 1966; WS adds 1971 at 3B. Other star seasons include 1970, plus 1969 at 1B. HM in 1963, 1967, plus 1973 at 1B.

14) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

15) J. MENDEZ -- Reevaluated after HOF election.

16) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

17) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

18) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he's ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

19) D. DEAN -- He's just missing this thin ballot. Prime 1932-36. Best player candidate 1934. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1934, 1935, 1936; WARP adds 1932. Other star seasons include 1933.

20) B. FREEHAN -- Reassessing catchers in general. Prime 1964-73. Best player candidate 1968. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1967, 1968; WS adds 1971. Other star seasons include 1964, plus 1973 at 1B. HM in 1972.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Norm Cash, Jake Beckley,
23-24) Billy Pierce, Rube Waddell,
25-26) Ralph Kiner, Joe Tinker,
27-28) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
29-30) Dizzy Trout, Edd Roush,
31-32) Willie Davis, Tommy Leach,
33-34) Dick Redding, Nellie Fox,

I'll go ahead and give him another look as well as White, Schoendiest, Dunlap, Lazzeri and Evers.

Another guy to look at is Marvin Williams. I have him somewhere between 6 and 9 among second basemen.

here's what I have for shortstop:

No Bartell or Bancroft?

1. Can anyone point me to good numbers for either Bill Monroe or Sol White? The Bill Monroe thread has him with rate stats of .311/.380/.440. Based on that, I can see how somebody might vote for him ahead of Doyle or Childs, but I wouldn't mind seeing a bit of a fuller picture before slotting him in. Sol White's thread has no comments, and the articles about his recent induction mention who he played for but not how well he played.

2. Thanks for the heads up on Schoendiest. I now have him ranked between Doyle and Childs.

3. Looked at Dunlap, Evers and Lazzeri. I wouldn't put any of them ahead of Childs and whether or not they rank ahead of Mazeroski is pretty irrelevant at this point.

4. Looked at Marvin Williams. Same story. Behind Childs and below my in/out line.

5. I did look at Bancroft. I had him 10th though I could see flip-flopping him with Groat and giving him 9th. I just didn't feel like posting that far down the list.

6. I hadn't looked at Bartell. I did now. I don't see enough to put him ahead of Groat or Bancroft.

Bartell was Bancroft lite.

Bancroft, OTOH, is the real deal. There are those who believe he was the greatest glove man of all time. Maybe Oz was better, maybe not. If you believe that, then he has to rank higher. I see Lundy as the black Bancroft, and would have Bancroft right there with Lundy on your list.

As for Dobie Moore: If the peaksters eventually enshrine him, I won't raise a fuss. But I just can't vote for a guy who's career was cut short on both ends.

But it wasn't cut short on both ends -- only on one end. We know he was playing baseball at a very high level early in his career (pre-Negro League) for the Army Wreckers, which was one of the best black teams around. They played teams from the Pacific Coast League and other top black teams, and their roster included several players who were later stars when the Negro Leagues were formed. With the Negro League players, please don't confuse absence of data with absence of playing time.

I'd agree that Bancroft was the best glove SS up until that time. I think Bartell wasn't quite as good with the glove as Bancroft but he was really good and was a significantly better hitter.

jimd - what about the elephant in the room?

Never mind, I missed it.

Please let me jump in on the Bancroft parade - one of our most underrated players as a group.

The D was incredible - and he could hit too. I don't see what's not to like.

Since they are so markedly different from Chris's, I'm going to post my SS rankings, newly revised (as in last night) for comparison:

1. Joe Sewell - best hitter, save Travis & Stephens, and great D.

2. Dave Bancroft - league average hitter, with some big years, great defense, played in an era (like Sewell), where MI didn't hit at all.

3. Phil Rizzuto - with war credit he jumps from a .494 OWP to a .505 and great D. Severely underrated.

4. Cecil Travis - I give war credit for 1942-45 at his 1937-40 level of play. Best hitter of the bunch, above average D. Lost more to the war than any other signficant candidate, since he was never the same afterwards.

5. Vern Stephens - great hitter, average fielder.

6. Dick Bartell - I give two years of declining war credit, phenomenal fielder, not very good hitter, but long career, total package very good. Bancroft lite is a great call.

7. Luis Aparicio - terrible offense, even when adjusting for era (which is comparable to Sewell and Bancroft's era) - only slightly better than an average SS hitting. Fielding is good but overrated. Career length is what gets him this high.

8. Rabbitt Maranville - for guys like Maranville and Robinson, I basically chop off the ends of the their careers and treat them as zeros. Basically even with Aparicio.

9. Herman Long - forgotten star.
10. Travis Jackson
11. Rico Petrocelli
12. Art Fletcher
13. Joe Tinker
14. Maury Wills - good hitter for the position - comparable to Bartell, but terrible defense.
15. Donie Bush

Left out the Negro Leaguers.

I would slot Moore between Rizzuto and Travis - but I could see the case for having him #2.

I'd put Lundy between Maranville and Long.

Somehow Pesky slipped through the cracks, UGH - he ranks just below Travis.

Oh yeah, almost forgot, congrats Jim!

Bartell was a significantly better hitter than Bancroft?

Bancroft 98 OPS+, Bartell 96. Bancroft .268 EQA, Bartell .266. Bancroft .498 OWP, vs. .402 position average in majors, Bartell .470 vs. .424.

Both had 7 seasons over 100 OPS+, both had highs around 115-125 (Bartell hit 125, but Bancroft hit 119-120 3 times to Bartell's being up there only twice).

What makes you think Bartell was a significantly better hitter?

OK, I'll bite. After pitchers, there's probably a wider range of opinion on SS than anything:

1. Dobie Moore--peak
2. Phil Rizzuto--defense
3. Joe Sewell--a little bit of everything
4. Dick Lundy--defense, long career
5. Vern Stephens--offense
6. Dave Bancroft--defense
7. Luis Aparicio--defense
8. Maury Wills--a bit of everything except character
9. Rabbit Maranville--defense
10. Joe Tinker--the best of the 3 poem boys
11. Johnny Peskovitch--would he be "Pesky" today?
12. Dick Bartell--Bartell lite
13. Art Fletcher--underrated, nice peak
14. Herman Long--declined young
15. Dick Groat--nice batting average

I'm pretty sure that Travis Jackson and Donie Bush are slotted correctly behind all of the above plus Roger Peckinpaugh. Not sure I have Cecil Travis right, for the reasons Joe mentions. And I am pretty sure there's a NeL or two that I am missing. I can never remember if Artie Wilson was a 2B or a SS, or Bus Clarkson?

You're right, there's an error I found.

Wow, I think my top 6 SS's are identical to Sunny's!

I found an error on Bartell´s numbers, so make my shortstops:

-Sewell
-Stephens
-Pesky
-Bancroft
-Petrocelli
-Moore
-Bartell
-Aparicio
-Rizzuto

On to the third baseman:

1. Brooks Robinson. Strong gray ink, great career value, phenomenal defense.

2. Ken Boyer. Second-best prime among eligible third basemen.

3. Pie Traynor. Pretty close to Boyer, actually. Second-best career.

4. George Kell. Yeah, I'm surprised, too. More black ink than I remembered.

5. Bob Elliott. Slightly better career numbers than Kell, and he was a much better slugger. Just doesn't have quite as much black ink or gray ink.

6. Tommy Leach. Similar career numbers to Boyer but he only gets 1/2 of the third-base bonus, allowing others to jump ahead.

7. Judy Johnson. A tough call. He has black ink in doubles and gray ink in average, doubles, triples and steals. Looks to be a speedy guy who used that to get extra base hits. But also doesn't appear to have quite as long a prime as Elliott or Leach.

8. Ray Dandridge. Appears to be a light-hitting version of Kell.

This discussion has led me down a path to an alternate scoring system. Here would be my alternate system 1983 ballot

1) Billy Williams
2) Joe Torre
3) Dick Allen
4) Brooks Robinson
5) Bob Johnson
6) Billy Pierce
7) Norm Cash - no big changes up until here
8) Jake Beckley - moves up considerably
9) Jose Mendez - also big move up
10) Quincy Trouppe
11) Pete Browning - vaults WAY up from the 50s!
12) Ken Boyer - drops but on ballot
13) Jim Wynn
14) Joe Sewell
15) Orlando Cepeda
16-20) Minnie Minoso, Tommy Bridges, George Burns, Tommy Leach, Gavy Cravath
21-25) Joe Tinker, Jack Quinn, Virgil Trucks, Johnny Evers, Dutch Leonard
26-30) Frank Howard, Dave Bancroft, Ralph Kiner, Edd Roush, Cupid Childs
31-35) Boog Powell, Charlie Keller, Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Dick Bartell
36-40) Bob Elliott, Rube Waddell, Wally Schang, Ben Taylor, Urban Shocker
41-45) Rocky Colavito, Dobie Moore, Jimmy Ryan, Bill Freehan, Hilton Smith

Any comments? I like it better if I can figure out how to curb my newfound Pete Browning enthusiasm. Hugh Duffy moved up from the 70s to the 50s.

Fascinating ballot. In the last two years, we've added Allen, BRob, Torre, Billy Williams, and Freehan--all of whom strike me as somewhere between the 100th and 200th best players of All-Time and Wynn, who either is in that second hundred or just outside of it. Given that most people probably rank their top few returning candidates around 150 All-Time, it should be a free-for-all.

I've tentatively got it:

(1) Keller (3rd)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit).
(2) Torre (new)--Uniquely valuable player. Ever so slightly ahead of Freehan on my calculations.
(3) Allen (new)--I dock him a small amount for the unique costs that came with managing this talent, but I can't see knocking someone with his level of performance far enough down to keep him out of the HoM.
(4) Cravath (5th)--Another guy who belongs with Keller and Allen.
(5) Freehan (6th)
(6) B. Williams (7th)
(7) Mendez (4th)--Slight downgrade.
(8) B. Robinson (new)--Using comparisons to Sewell (not as good on a season-by-season comparison but nips him on career length) and Boyer (very similar but one rung better) to place him.
(9) Sewell (8th)
(10) Roush (9th)
(11) Cash (10th)
(12) Pierce (11th)
(13) Minoso (12th)
(14) B. Johnson (14th)
(15) Bridges (14th)

Wynn is 16th (seven great seasons but they were scattered and there isn't much else to recommend him), followed by Leach (15th), Boyer, Childs, Elliot, and Duffy.

New version of the ballot counter posted to the Yahoo group. Incredible thanks to OCF - now including consensus scores! As always, comments/feature requests welcome.

Consensus score calculation will not work correctly unless are ballots on the sheet are fully filled in - do not include partial ballots if you intend to calculate scores.

jimd - what about the elephant in the room?

Which one? I think they're all there except the Boogster.

My 1983 preliminary is about to be unfolded. The newcomers are impressive as a group, but no one player blows me away. That said, Joe Torre makes my PHOM. I didn't realize quite how good he was. I kept hearing about how poor a fielder he was, but through my system, he checks out at no less than league average no matter where he played. Drysdale joins him off my personal backlog.
I am developing a new system to better take career into equation, an area I feel is not adequately measured by me currently. I should have enough time to finish it while at my parents in Toronto towards the end of August.

Here goes:

1)Hugh Duffy (PHOM)
2)Rube Waddell (PHOM)
3)Gavvy Cravath (PHOM)
4)Joe Sewell (PHOM)
5)Joe Torre (PHOM) Hi! I'm new
6)Lefty Gomez (PHOM)
((6a)Don Drysdale (PHOM)))
7)Jose Mendez
((7a)Willard Brown))
8)Ben Taylor
9)Edd Roush
10)Brooks Robinson Hi! I'm new
11)Quincy Trouppe
12)Dick Allen
13)Orlando Cepeda
14)Ralph Kiner
15)Billy Williams

<u>Second Deck</u>
16)Vern Stephens
17)Bill Freehan
((17a)Biz Mackey))
18)Tommy Bridges
19)Minnie Minoso
20)Nellie Fox
21)Ken Boyer
22)Wally Berger
23)Dizzy Dean
((23)Juan Marichal))
24)Ernie Lombardi
25)Roger Bresnahan
26)Al Rosen
((26a)Jim Bunning))
27)Dick Redding (PHOM)
28)Jimmy Wynn Hi! I'm new
29)Chuck Klein
((29a)Joe Gordon))
30)Billy Pierce
.
.
.
41) Boog Powell Hi! I'm new

Looked at Dunlap, Evers and Lazzeri. I wouldn't put any of them ahead of Childs

I rate Dunlap as very close to Childs (both are in my PHOM). WARP finds them to be equivalent as hitters, taking into account the varying league quality. And Dunlap was the equal of McPhee with the glove (Childs being "just" somewhat above average.) So he combines the best of both. It was high praise when Frank Grant was referred to as "the Black Dunlap".

So why isn't he in already? The problem for some is that his career is relatively short. Compounding that are the short seasons of the 1880's, and the even shorter seasons of the early 1880's, and the Union Association (UA) season, which is tossed out by some (I think BP discounts that about right). Some may not notice that his 1886 season was split betweeen two teams when looking at his BP WARP sheet. Some thought there were already enough 1880's players in the HOM (it's now way underrepresented, by the standards of the 1930's).

Some miscellany outside the stats. The UA war in 1884 made him the highest paid player in baseball. Doesn't mean that he actually was the best, but he was close enough that the new league thought it was worth paying the money to get instant credibility. Also, when he was sold from St.Lous to Detroit in 1886, it was the highest price paid for a player to that date. More evidence of the high reputation he had at the time. Also, when Detroit paid all that money to get him, they already had a HOM 2nd-baseman in Hardy Richardson, who shifted to the OF. Dunlap apparently was hurt during the 1887 season, though the half-season he played was star-quality, and he was never the same player after that.

Fascinating ballot. In the last two years, we've added Allen, BRob, Torre, Billy Williams, and Freehan--all of whom strike me as somewhere between the 100th and 200th best players of All-Time and Wynn, who either is in that second hundred or just outside of it. Given that most people probably rank their top few returning candidates around 150 All-Time, it should be a free-for-all.

I suppose that a majority has someone from the backlog in the personal top 100 eligible and has a few incumbents easily within the top 150, but point well taken.

--
So other than the Year of Dick, not much happened. And what can you say about guys who peter out at age 27-29 other than "so long"?

On the other hand, after 1971, some people thought Bill Melton might make it to the Hall of Fame. I don't recall even considering Carlos May a star.

Did Melton's injury possibly cost them the 1972 race? No, the team was so weak at bat, SS-2B-CF. Jay Johnstone .188 .259 .268, wow! What happened there?

--
How does Joe Torre NOT make the HoF through the veterans commitee when you can consider his managerial career?

He is still working.
Indeed, George being George, there are dozens of newspaper articles every year whose subject is whether we will keep working or hang it up. I think they should go in together, which will take some great good fortune.

Joe Torre, team role as mlb player: catcher 8, second catcher 1, third base 3, first base 3, hitter 1 [1976]; tidbit 2

(Atlanta was off my radar in Torre's day. St Louis was my favorite team in NL 1970, but I don't remember him as a catcher, or Allen at third base; any memory would be from box scores. Just above I have counted Torre's role as catcher which I will now challenge.)
?Was 1970 a half-platoon at catcher with Torre one of three righties at third?
Ted Simmons dnp play until Memorial Day, 43 games. Plate appearances 242:82 versus right:left pitchers. Inept in those 82pa. Was he a genuine switch-hitter or still learning?
Joe Torre, league-leader in games, 526:178 versus right:left, same ratio as catcher-only Simmons. Opening with 43 games at catcher, 18 at third, 22 mixed, 31 at catcher, and 44 of the final 47 at third.
This looks like:
- Simmons catcher as much as possible, with Torre third base
- Torre catcher when necessary, with Shannon or Allen third base
The healthy stable prime linchpin (Torre) plays every day but covers two positions as needed without any platoon "need" manufactured or genuine. Torre 1970 daily

Ted Simmons
1968: _2g, __3pa 0:3 right:left
1969: _5g, _16pa 11:5 right(.200 .182 .400): left(.250 .400 .250)
1970: 82g, 324pa 242:82 right(.269 .355 .344): left(.167 .268 .236)

Note, my discussion of 1970 suggests the revised count:

Joe Torre, team role as mlb player: first catcher 7, second catcher 1, third base 4; first base 3; hitter 1 [1976]; tidbit 2

10. Joe Tinker--the best of the 3 poem boys

I have an article coming out sometime this fall on Johnny Evers, which I'll likely post on the site. I would suggest that anyone who doesn't realize exactly how valuable Evers was should take a close look at the Braves and Cubs in 1913/1914.

-- MWE

There are a number of centerfielder lists in the Jimmy Wynn thread, but I'll go ahead and post mine here.

1. Alejandro Oms. Perhaps the biggest beneificiary of my re-eval so far. I had been treating him like a light version of Ralph Kiner- 10 great years and then nothing. But that's not the case. His scattered record in the '30s indicates that he was still a league leader when he was able to play. And he has top ten career ranks in several categories.

2. Hugh Duffy. A personal favorite, and there's more to his case than the Triple Crown year.

3. Pete Browning. I remember reading somebody else's comments about Browning: he's not the top of the pyramid for his era, but he's pretty close.

4. Vada Pinson. The best career numbers of all eligible MLB center-fielders.

5. Edd Roush. Just a bit behind Pinson.

6. Jimmy Ryan. Slightly better career numbers than Roush, but too much of his peak is tied up in one year and his prime isn't quite as long.

7. Willie Davis. A speed specialist with solid if unspectacular career numbers. My cut-off would most likely be above Davis.

8. Dom DiMaggio. With war credit, he's just about in the same neck of the woods as Ryan.

Tinker to Evers to Chance =

Gagne to Knoblauch to Hrbek

Joe Torre, team role as a player

I am copying the main part of #77 to the Joe Torre thread.

Forgot a couple of NeLers in the CF list. Spottswood Poles goes in between Roush and Ryan. Jules Thomas slides in ahead of DiMaggio.

And the corner outfielders:

1. Billy Williams. Crushes the competition in terms of career value.

2. Minnie Minoso. Scattered black ink from '52-'57 and 9 solid years of gray ink. A little NeL credit at the beginning of his career results in decent overall numbers.

3. Ralph Kiner. I though he might jump up higher in the re-eval but he didn't. The best peak of eligible outfielders but a shorter prime and much lower career numbers keep him from climbing higher.

4. Sam Rice. The Jake Beckley of outfielders, except that he does have a little more black ink.

5. Chuck Klein. Wasn't as dominant as long as Kiner but still ended up with better career numbers.

6. Bob Johnson. If Klein is Kiner-light, than Bob is light Rice.

7. Gavvy Cravath. A beneficiary of the re-eval. I'm giving him credit for the MVP-caliber seasons in 1910 and 1911. They may not have been MVP-caliber in the majors, but they still look like All-Star caliber to me.

8. Tony Oliva. In the Kiner/Klein mold of great prime but not much in the way of shoulder seasons.

9. Wild Bill Wright. We must have elected all of the deserving NeL corner outfielders because Wright is the best one left, and I'm not sure that either he or Oliva belong in the Hall.

This looks like:
- Simmons catcher as much as possible, with Torre third base
- Torre catcher when necessary, with Shannon or Allen third base
The healthy stable prime linchpin (Torre) plays every day but covers two positions as needed without any platoon "need" manufactured or genuine.

I believe Simmons still had some National Guard duty in 1970, so he would miss some games (weekend?) for that, and Torre would catch, but it's strange that there wasn't a 3rd catcher on the roster, so maybe I'm confused...

DL worte:

Any comments? I like it better if I can figure out how to curb my newfound Pete Browning enthusiasm. Hugh Duffy moved up from the 70s to the 50s.

Nah, ain't nothing wrong with that. Give in to the Gladiator love, so to speak.

1983 prelim

1. Dick Allen
2. Wally Schang
3. Bill Freehan
4. Joe Torre
5. Joe Sewell
6. Orlando Cepeda
7. Billy Williams
8. Norm Cash
9. Jose Mendez
10. Frank Howard
11. Charlie Keller
12. Tommy Bridges
13. Lefty Gomez
14. Gil Hodges
15. Jimmy Wynn

Dick Allen. Even aside from the character issue (which plays no role in my rating), would probably have suffered from the Johnny Mize syndrome among HoF voters.

Jimmy Wynn. Offensive stats hurt by era and park. Still, hard to believe that he ends up so high- 10th best CF in the NBJHBA?!

Brooks Robinson. #27. Given his reputation and how beloved he is in Balto, this deserves some explanation. The case against B. Robinson as a sure-fire HoMer has 3 parts: (1) I believe that the AL was the weaker league, especially during the 60s. (2) There was a lot of talent at 3B during his time. Among exact contemporaries, Mathews and Santo were superior, as well as Dick Allen, if you count him as a 3B, while Bando and Boyer are arguably as qualified. Killebrew also had superior years at 3B. Nettles' career partially overlapped Robinson's, and he looks like the best historical comparison. Bando, Boyer, Robinson, and Nettles all look borderline to below for me. (3) The subtle effects of expansion: 58 percent more win shares were given out in 1969+ vs. 1960-. Does anybody, even a shameless timeliner like me, believe that there was 58 percent more talent in such a short time span as 9 years? The HoM group, to its credit, has at least intuitively discounted the career totals of players such as Pinson and Willie Davis, but the expansion issue affects all players of the time, especially those whose cases are based largely on "career value".

Boog Powell. In the 40s. George Sisler's equivalent.

Brooks Robinson. #27.

Hurrah, I'm not alone! (No prelim yet, but Brooksie is going to end up off-ballot for me too, I'm thinking.)

Of the newbies from the last two "years" not named Hank or Frank, my order is looking like:

Allen (high, probably #1)
Freehan (midballot)
Torre (also midballot, possibly ahead of Freehan, not sure yet)
Wynn (not sure yet if he's just on ballot or just off or a little further off or much further off--need to look more carefully at him)
Robinson (off, probably in the 20s, maybe low teens)
Williams (well off, high 30s)

Of the newbies from the last two "years" not named Hank or Frank,

But ironically, Allen had an MLB-playing brother named Hank and Torre had one named Frank!

In other news, the division over Allen, and the lesser division over Robinson is going to make for some very interesting balloting on the questions of Freehan, Torre, Williams (who is somewhat divided in a Robinson like manner), and Wynn. Williams, as the leading returnee, would see to have the advantage, and yet, look at my prelim where the presence of Allen, torre, and Brob will push Williams off my ballot.

This will be fascinating one to watch.

Haven't posted a prelim in 70 "years" or so, but what the hell.

1. Billy Williams
2. Dick Allen
3. Pete Browning
4. Brooks Robinson
5. Charley Jones
6. Cupid Childs
7. Tommy Leach
8. Minnie Minoso
9. Joe Torre
10. Larry Doyle
11. Bill Freehan
12. Edd Roush
13. Ken Boyer
14. Joe Sewell
15. Jimmy Wynn

Chirs F, your pos ranking are good food for discussion, especially since you haven't been around for 70 "years" (I probably could tell you Dimino's and others' rankings in my sleep by now!).
I'll say this about Dom D: if you combine the defensive metrics used by Win Shares and WARP, and give him WWII credit, he is clearly one of the best 5 outfielders of all time (Mays and Speaker obvious top 5 candidates, and C Flood and A Jones depending on your taste for career length the others)
That puts Dom 3rd among my CF backlog (VanHaltren {did you rank him?} and Wynn ahead, Oms and Browning just behind)

I like Dom more and more the more I look too Tom. I may move him back onto the radar this week, which is kind of weird with all of the newbies coming up. I think he should have at least been discussed more.

Dom D, Scooter and Cecil Travis are the three whose case most rides on WWII credit I think.

Dom D, Scooter and Cecil Travis are the three whose case most rides on WWII credit I think.

Keller, too.

Keller only lost a year and 3/4 though Doc. Those guys lost 3-4 prime seasons. That's a ton to overcome.

'Course 1 3/4 years of Keller's career is about the same pct. as 3-4 years of a normal career.

Sure, but Scooter and Dom had a longer careers even without the war credit, and I don't think Travis is such a great candidate to begin with. Every ounce of credit Keller gets is vital to his cause because his career is so short, and he's competing with a very similar candidate in Raph Kiner.

>Every ounce of credit Keller gets is vital to his cause because his career is so short,

I thought that was what I said ;-) Maybe not.

Re: post #91: Yes, I looked at Van Haltren. I've even been involved in a few of the Duffy/Van Haltren debates. I'm not a big supporter of GVH, but I would have had him next just after DiMaggio.

In other news, the division over Allen, and the lesser division over Robinson is going to make for some very interesting balloting on the questions of Freehan, Torre, Williams (who is somewhat divided in a Robinson like manner), and Wynn. Williams, as the leading returnee, would see to have the advantage, and yet, look at my prelim where the presence of Allen, torre, and Brob will push Williams off my ballot.

But the arrival of a few interesting newbies can knock a BWilliams off several ballots only by a fluke. If a candidate garners ten #4 votes and ten #14 votes, for example, that player would be vulnerable to such a fluke. A candidate after arrival like BWilliams is really vulnerable only to the arrival of a few similar candidates or to a campaign: Whoa, HOMeboys, we aren't electing Joe Sewell are we?

Based on comments made, I've made a few adjustments to my list of shortstops. In particular, I took a closer look at the Negro League shortstops. Lundy jumped over Wills into 3rd place. As for Dobie Moore, I've tended to go to extremes. When I first became an active voter, I had him very high and took a flak for that. Then I had him completely off the board and took flak for that. So I looked again. His great years out-do those of Vern Stephens, so I put him just above at 5th. And Bancroft supporters, I did reconsider him but still couldn't place him any higher.