My PHOM is based a little more on positional balance than my ballot. In this case, I didn't want to induct 2 first baseman or 2 left fielders at the same time. Minoso and Cash are at the front of the line with Beckwith, Medwick, Doyle, Bresnahan, Frank Howard, Long, and Newcombe, and maybe Elston if I can decide what, if any, credit I give him for his odd career.

OK, w/r/t the discussion of injury rates for players around the WW2 era, as promised, I did a little bit of research in this area, and the results are posted in the Credits/Debits for WW2 player thread.

Now, this is an interesting election. I might actually run a ballot counter for the first time in many years. Dick Allen and Jim Bunning are my PHOMers this year.

1985 ballot:

1. Minnie Minoso: A six-tool player -- the usual 5 plus “get hit by pitches”. Strong in all phases of the game, fine prime, lacks only eye-popping seasons. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

2. Bill Freehan: The win shares, durability, no. of good seasons and defense make him my #1 catcher. (eligible 1982, PHOM 1984)

3. Rube Waddell: Great ERA+, struck out tons of hitters when others weren’t. Gave up a lot of unearned runs, but so did lots of people in his day. (eligible 1916, PHOM 1968)

4. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

5. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

6. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, very good offense for a middle infielder. Made my PHOM as a shiny new toy in ’39, now a teddy bear. (eligible 1939, PHOM 1939)

7. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

8. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

9. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

10. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

11. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

12. Orlando Cepeda: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

13. Jose Mendez: Moves from on the bubble to on the ballot. (eligible 1932)

14. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

15. Pie Traynor: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941)


Required comments:
Cupid Childs: My #3 2b behind Fox (on ballot) and Doyle (off).

New folks:
Lou Brock: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. Almost put him on the ballot, maybe another year.
Thurman Munson: Good catcher candidate who also might make the ballot. No credit for playing while dead.
Roy White: Very good player, but nothing that suggests greatness.
Catfish Hunter: Turned out much worse than I expected.
Mickey Lolich: Also turned out poorly, but I wasn’t very surprised.

1985 Ballot. No one new cracks the top fifteen.

1) George Van Haltren (3). Resurfaces at the top. Career 121 OPS+ is deceptively tarnished by a 45 and a 72 in his final two ML seasons. Add in almost 700 IP and, in my mind, you have the second-best pure career candidate on the board.
2) Jake Beckley (4). And the best? That would be Beckley. 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I give more credit to a 9-year peak than I used to.
3) Billy Pierce (5). It was in vogue to compare Pierce to Marichal. But we enshrined contemporary Bob Lemon, and Pierce has nearly double (198 to 107) the amount of adjusted PRAA, and wins out in DERA 3.97 to 4.17. Do 220 more total bases at bat really make up that difference? If Lemon belongs, so does Pierce.
4) Bill Freehan (6). I’m a bit more certain of Freehan’s merit than I am of Trouppe’s. Helps that he starred in the years just before the catcher glut of Torre, Munson, Bench, Simmons, and so on.
5) Quincy Trouppe (7). More appearances per season than Schang, and a much better hitter than Mackey - probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
6) Cupid Childs (8). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
7) Bob Johnson. (9) Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. Something interesting I noticed awhile ago - Johnson appears to be the only eligible player we haven’t enshrined who, according to BP’s translations, would have hit 500 HRs.
8) Edd Roush (10). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
9) Burleigh Grimes (11). Substantial movement in 1976 after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
10) Minnie Minoso (12). Similar to Bob Johnson; placement depends on how much credit you give for his pre-ML play. I can’t fathom how one could have Minoso in an elect-me position and Johnsn off-ballot, though.
11) Jimmy Ryan (13). All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better. Might’ve been the Billy Williams of the 19th century with a higher peak.
12) Bob Elliott (14). Similar to Hack; better than Boyer when one looks at his era’s competition at 3B.
13) Dick Redding (15). A slightly lesser version of Burleigh Grimes, in my estimation, without the mind-boggling lows.
14) Joe Sewell (off). Positional dominance, 105+ WARP1, 105+ WARP3.
15) Alejandro Oms (off). Makes his return. Overshadowed by other greats during his time, but still accrued enough value to catch the tail end of this ballot.

Jose Mendez - Took another look, but I still can’t see enough merit. Grimes matches his best seasons (if not consecutively), and I’ll take the remainder of his career over Mendez. Still behind Waddell, still around #25.
Hugh Duffy - Win Shares might like his fielding, but WARP declares him to be average. His 1894 doesn’t impress me as much when league strength is taken into account.
Rube Waddell. His era’s Tommy Bridges? Just sitting off-ballot.
Ralph Kiner – In a second tier of short-career corner outfielders like Charlie Keller and Pete Browning. He’s the best, though, and currently is also just off-ballot. And in case he gets elected this year, and I don’t get a chance to make this point in ‘86, I think Kiner’s got an AWESOME middle name.
Thurman Munson - Decisively behind Freehan (can’t match defense, career) and Trouppe (can’t match offense, career). Right now, just a bit behind Schang - which unfortunately translates to about 10 ballot spots, so he’s about #35.
Lou Brock - If he was only a slick-fielding CF, I could forgive the crappy walk rates.

Don F. wrote:
Thurman Munson: Good catcher candidate who also might make the ballot. No credit for playing while dead.

I would give him a lot of credit if he'd been able to do that. Heck, he couldn't have been any worse than Jerry Narron.

1985 ballot.

1. Wally Schang
2. Bill Freehan
All position players in my system have their stats adjusted to partially compensate for the relative amount of typical playing time; catcher is the only position where it has a big effect in general. Freehan ends up similar to Torre for players who are almost exact contemporaries. I see Schang as a slightly superior candidate, as he accumulated his record in a time when catchers typically caught less per season.
3. Joe Sewell - Best ML SS of the 1920s, in the strong AL; very consistent prime.
4. Orlando Cepeda - Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the bottom-half-of-the-HoM bats. I feel that Cepeda in particular has been underrated- especially when 50s-60s NL strength is taken into account.
5. Norm Cash -
6. Jose Mendez - Reputation and statistical evidence that he had a HoM-worthy peak. I see similarities to Lefty Gomez, with the patches of brilliance.
7. Charlie Keller - My guesstimate is that his monster peak would have been sustained during the war years, making him a viable "peak" candidate a la Jennings.
8. Frank Howard -
9. Gil Hodges - The best or among the best 1B throughout his prime in the strong 50s NL.
10. Dutch Leonard (Emil)- Combination of innings pitched for the era, very good ERA+, and effective relief pitching to end his career.
11. Sol White - Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to ever know if this rating is accurate, but the sketchy record available show a full career, most of it at 2B, but several years at SS, a high batting average, and a reputation for intelligence.
12. Nellie Fox - Borderline 50s 2B candidate. Solid prime, but some issues with AL strength.
13. Jimmy Wynn - Offensive stats hurt by era and park; still, given raw numbers, surprising that ends up so high- cw 10th best CF in the NBJHBA.
14. Bob Friend - In a system where IP, ERA+, and league pitching strength all play a part, the IP and league stength are what get Friend on the ballot. Admittedly a case where the W/L record is so poor, could be a red flag; seems to have a low W% for his ERA+ even when quality of his teams is taken into account.
15. Wally Berger - The kind of career that might slip past a career-only lens, but his peak/prime was very good.

Kiner, Minoso, Pierce, Waddell, and Childs were all very good players who have all been on or within shouting distance of my ballot at one time or another.

Among the newcomers: Brock's rating depends on how much weight is put on "career value". His value looks very similar to that of Sam Rice (with WWI credit) to me.

Munson was a very good catcher. Too many catchers historically have faded quickly to be certain that he was on a HoM track, however.

62. rawagman Posted:
DanG - Not to quibble with your rankings, but those charts of yours...talk about damning someone with faint praise. Straight out of the Jayson Stark school of statistical manipulation.

Um, thanks, glad you like them(?)

Seriously, except maybe for the Beckley exhibit, they show that the player ranked among the outstanding performers of his era. I admit they are fashioned to show the player in question in a most favorable light. And they're kinda aimed towards eliciting a response of, "Gee, I didn't know that."

Perhaps it not worth the trouble, but I invite anyone to comment on any of those charts and demonstrate that it is misleading or contrary to "reality" in some way.

DanG,
I always took those as almost tongue in cheek, in the sense that they are so obviously 'endpoint picking' that they aren't even misleading...

Perhaps it not worth the trouble, but I invite anyone to comment on any of those charts and demonstrate that it is misleading or contrary to "reality" in some way.

I never have had a problem with them, Dan. The only problem is when you don't agree with my picks. :-)

1985 Ballot

My #1 and #3 were elected in 1984. I added a new angle to my evaluation this year. I first group players by decade, so they are ranked first against their immediate peers. In past years, I then combined my decade lists based on their weighted rank-order position. This time, I combined the lists based on the percentage that their total value as calculated in my system is above or below the number that looks like it will define, for my PHOM, the all-time in-out line for their decade as of 2007.

This approach emphasized for me just how tightly bunched the current candidates are. Except for my #1, Rabbit Maranville, whom I know my system values a bit unrealistically highly, no current candidate is more than 5% above the in-out line, with 16 candidates being above the line by any margin. A dozen candidates are essentially on the line (about 1 per decade plus a few ties), and another 23 candidates, listed below, are less than 5% below the line. I’ve included these numbers with each candidate, so that you can see where I have made subjective adjustments to the list.

I notice that my ballot is filling up with candidates who played in “weak” leagues. I was a bit concerned about that, until I looked around and saw that their “strong” league contemporaries had been elected in larger proportions already. We’ve held many of these players back due to league-strength considerations, but I think it’s time to acknowledge that they are the best players remaining from their generations, and that they are worthy.

1. Rabbit Maranville (2) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
2. Bill Freehan (4). % = 1.0432. The best catcher of the 1960s, very strong offensively and defensively. Who knew? Actually more underrated than Ron Santo, who is a well-known cause in sabermetric circles. I am unaware of any serious attention to Freehan’s case for the Hall of Fame. An excellent opportunity for the HoM to give credit where it is due.
3. Charlie Keller (8). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
4. Quincy Trouppe. (nr). % = 1.0453. A review of Trouppe’s record shows the perils of eye-balling adjustments. I had decided that Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs were a bit too high, as he was estimating some leagues at .90/.82 that I would estimate at .87/.76, so I had decided that Trouppe was not quite good enough. I _finally_ got around to going over the doubtful years myself, and even with the changes, Trouppe still looks excellent. So here he vaults into the top third of my ballot. His peak isn’t quite as good as Freehan’s, because he probably didn’t combine defensive excellence with outstanding hitting, but I now see him as a solid HoMer.
5. Jimmy Wynn (6). % = 1.0386. The last of three HoF oversights to reach the ballot this year. Wynn is unusual among modern candidates in that his case is more of a peak case than a career one. He had a great peak in a tough league, but he declined early. I imagine we will have much to discuss concerning his case, although his discussion thread has been oddly side-tracked into softball . . .
6. Billy Pierce (11). % = 1.0370. Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is gaining momentum: we should definitely elect him.
7. Edd Roush. (20). % = 1.0499. The biggest beneficiary of my rankings review. I had pushed him downwards because I felt outfielders had been overrated, but his peak and career are both too good to leave him off the ballot.
8. Minnie Minoso (9). % = 1.0451. As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s.
9. Alejandro Oms. (19) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
10. Jose Mendez (5). % = 1.0078. Still on my ballot, but he is closer to the in-out line than I had been ranking him. If he’s elected this year, I think that would be a fine choice, though I now see Pierce as the top pitcher candidate available.
11. Dave Bancroft (7). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him.
12. Tommy Leach. (15). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
13. Ralph Kiner (16). % = 1.0357. Didn’t have a well-rounded game, but the best bat eligible.
14. Jake Beckley (14). % = 1.0250. Holds steady in the new system.
15. Joe Sewell (10). % =1.0109. Slides to the edge of my ballot, but still deserves a vote. League strength keeps him up.

1985 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Herman Long (13). % = 1.0192. As in Maranville’s case, I think Long’s long career of defensive excellence is being significantly underrated by the electorate. Drops off my ballot, though, as, if I ask myself if I would rather have Sewell or Long in building a team, I’d definitely take Sewell.
17. Rube Waddell (17). % = 1.00. Still just off-ballot.
18. Dick Redding (12). % = 1.00. In shifting my view of Redding from a career candidate to a peak candidate, I find he slips decisively (though not far) behind Jose Mendez, and how he looks more similar to Rube Waddell
19. Charley Jones (18). % = 1.00. Holds steady within striking distance of my ballot.
20. Bus Clarkson (21). % = 1.00. Reconsideration moves him to the top of the off-ballot infielder crowd, ahead of Boyer, Fox, and Childs. I wish we knew more about his defense and his playing time! I’m inclined to rank him higher, but this is where Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs put him, and I don’t see evidence that they are underrating him.
21. Ken Boyer. (24) % = 1.00. Moves ahead of Cash on league-strength considerations.
22. Norm Cash. (22) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer on league-strength considerations.
23. Cupid Childs(26). % = 1.00. Is he on track for election? He will probably make my ballot before he goes in, if he goes in.
24. Gavvy Cravath (23). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked.
25. Nellie Fox (25). % = 1.00. Less of an impact player than Boyer or Childs, but still worthy.
26. Bob Johnson (nr). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
27. Joe Tinker (nr). % = 1.00. Likewise
28. Dom Dimaggio (nr). % = 1.00. Likewise
29. Jimmy Ryan (nr). % = 1.00. Likewise

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

30. Bill Monroe .9922
31. Don Newcombe .9886
32. Urban Shocker .9867
33. Burleigh Grimes .9845
34. George Burns .9879
35. Willie Davis .9896
36. Mike Griffin .9791
37. Johnny Evers .9779
39. Fielder Jones .9778
30. Lave Cross .9709
40. Hugh Duffy .9686
41. Johnny Pesky .9676
42. Ben Taylor .9667
43. Cy Seymour .9665
44. Dick Bartell .9653
45. George Van Haltren /9538
46. Larry Doyle .9614
47. Bobby Veach .9609
48. Buzz Arlett .9602
49. Vada Pinson .9599
50. Leroy Matlock .9544
51. Tommy Bond .9511


Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

C Childs. I think we should elect 1-2 more players from the 1890s. I prefer Long and Beckley for those slots, but Childs is definitely next in line, and he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
Dobie Moore. His peak isn’t high enough or long enough to make up for the shortness of his career overall. He’s outside my top 50, but probably inside the top 75.

New arrivals.

Thurman Munson. Better than I had expected. He looks to me like the best player among the new eligibles, but he falls just short of the top 50. If there weren’t a lot of evidence that he was in serious decline before his untimely death, I would place less weight on his relatively low career value. The fourth best catcher in the richest decade for great catchers since the 1930s.

Lou Brock. A very good player, but there are plenty of candidates with similar career lengths, similar or better offensive value and much more defensive value. To consider him a top candidate, one really has to set aside a lot of strong sabermetric evidence in favor of unquantifiable factors. In my rankings of 1960s stars, he follows Willie Davis (35), Vada Pinson (49), and Orlando Cepeda (nr). Definitely top 100, but maybe not top 75.

Mickey Lolich. A fine pitcher in the Paul Derringer innings-eater mode. Not in top 100.

Catfish Hunter. Not quite as good as Lolich.

Roy White. A very good player, but I don’t think anyone is looking at him as a serious candidate.

PHoM 1985 – B. Robinson, Doerr, Pierce

1. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons.
2. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
3. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964.
4. Freehan PH0M 1984. NHBA has Torre ahead of Freehan, but I prefer the full time catcher.
5. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
6. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
7. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16 (and BJ is a timeliner)
· Too bad we elected Ashburn.
8. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
9. Pierce PHoM 1985. By WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
10. Minoso PHoM 1972.
11. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
12. Wynn, J Will make PHoM soon.
13. Boyer, K More deserving than Sewell.
14. Fox, N
15. Howard, F
16. Howard, E
17. Cravath
18. Leach
19. Cooper, W
20. Mays, C
21. Doyle
22. Cepeda
23. Berger
24. Browning
25. Willis

I could see Lolich or Hunter on the ballot, but on my lists they look like the equals of many other pitchers that the group has decisively decided against. I need more time to decide that these two are in fact above the competition. Otherwise, a lot of interesting new players but only a desire for fresh blood could cause them to reach the top fifteen. IOW, not good enough.

1. Billy Pierce (3), Chic. (A) SP (’49-’64) (1971) – Currently the 100th best player in my system.
2. Ken Boyer (4), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
3. Jimmy Wynn (5), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
4. Dutch Leonard (6), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
5. Dizzy Trout (7), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
6. Norm Cash (8), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
7. Alejandro Oms (9), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
8. George Van Haltren (10), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
9. Ben Taylor (11), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
10. Bob Johnson (12), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) (1985) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
11. Minnie Minoso (13), Chic. (A), LF (’49-’63) – Numbers say he’s on the happy side of the in/out line of the HOM right now (i.e. one of the top 200+ players of all time), but I see him as a victim of the timeline to ensure earlier eras were properly represented. Having said that, he is 4th on the backlog for P-Hall entry, so I could be wrong…
12. Dom DiMaggio (14), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
13. Luis Aparicio (15), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.
14. Jake Beckley (--), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.
15. Orlando Cepeda (--), S.F. (N), 1B (’58-’74) – 0.301 EQA makes him the best of the rest.

Jose Mendez – Would rank as the worst pitcher elected on my list, if that comes to pass.
Bill Freehan – Best catcher available – depending on how you label Torre – does not automatically get you on the ballot.
Joe Sewell – Could have been 15 in place of Cepeda, but Orlando looks better today.
Ralph Kiner – Considering they’re so similar, quite a few of you should have to explain Kiner with 27 votes and Chuck Klein with 2 before I explain why he is off-ballot.
Rube Waddell – Almost exactly the same value as Dizzy Dean (6 votes) except Dean accomplished it in 400 fewer IP. I believe his last appearance on the ballot was 1946.
Cupid Childs – Rizzuto first.

Six players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.

With 40 votes in:

Average consensus score is at -15.8 and nearly certain to go lower. We should set that record this year, although not by much.

82 candidates have received votes - and jimd hasn't even voted yet (F. Jones, Dunlap, ... ) That's another record we have a good shot at.

23 candidates have receive #1 votes and 36 have received "elect me" votes. No candidate has received more than six #1's or ten "elect me" votes.

1985 Ballot

Don Denkinger blows a call at 1B and the Royals are gifted the World Series. In 1984, we elected Joe Torre (was 4) and Brooks Robinson (was 7).

1. Jose Mendez - convinced he was a dominant pitcher for a 6-7 year span.
2. Bill Freehan - good offensive C, great defensive C.
3. Billy Pierce - many excellent RA+ years, plus leverage credit.
4. Charley Jones - only glaring 19th Cent. omission - the Dick Allen of his era.
5. Wally Schang - durability was excellent for his era, unfair to compare him head-on to Lombardi/Freehan.
6. Norm Cash - One Big Year, excellent 1B defense, 139 OPS+.
7. Quincy Trouppe - a similar type player to Torre.
8. Ken Boyer - Strong eight-year prime, but little else.
9. Nellie Fox - Great defense, long career, just enough punch.
10. Orestes Minoso - Vaults up vs. the other players in his (immediate post-integration era) cohort.
11. Dick Redding - Can't decide if he's Vic Willis or a bit better than that.
12. Edd Roush - comparable and superior player to Richie Ashburn.
13. Joe Sewell - not so high on him, but still far superior to Moore.
14. Rabbit Maranville - loads and loads of career value.
15. Jake Beckley - sneaks back onto my ballot.

16-20: Wynn, Kiner, Cepeda, Browning, E. Howard.
21-25: Waddell, Bresnahan, Luque, Easter, Rizzuto.

Lou Brock, Thurman Munson, and Catfish Hunter are all HoVG members who crack my top 50. For some crude career value comps, Munson = Lombardi, Brock = Willie Davis, and Hunter = Grimes.

Not a lot of change on the ballot this week. Brock and Munson are both in my top 50 but not very close to the top 15, but like all of us, I reserve the right to change my mind. Freehan, Wynn and Waddell make my PHoM (but I have no clue who'll be following them in the next 2 elections).

1. Minnie Minoso (3) The more I look at him, the more I like him ahead of the other OF candidates. Gets a bit of an era boost from me – even though the AL was the weaker league, the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

2. Jose Mendez (2) I don’t think I’m just following the crowd by moving him past Redding. Now I think the ceiling on what Mendez might have been is higher, and the Negro League scholars did pick him as well. The comparison of the K/9, BB/9 numbers impressed me. Made my PHoM in 1975.

3. Bill Freehan (5) I really like him, and am more worried about having him too low than too high (but I'm also not a huge fan of the backlog). He wasn't quite the overall force the other catcher candidates were, but he made up for much of that with his defense. Makes my PHoM this year.

4. Dick Redding (6) I'm for settling the Redding/Mendez debate by putting them both in.. Made my PHoM in 1973.

5. Bill Monroe (8) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. Made my PHoM in 1939.

6. Jimmy Wynn (9) I do sort of worry that I'm just voting for the uber-stats, but the more I've looked at him, the more I like him. Out of all the CF candidates currently out there, his OPS+ beats everyone but Wally Berger, who has other issues. Makes my PHoM this year.

7. Joe Sewell (7) Gets picked on a lot, but I wouldn’t have minded his induction. Comparisons to Doerr and Gordon are viable, and he played a more important position. He's not responsible for the rest of the ML shortstops in the 20s being sucky. Made my PHoM in 1939.

8. Dobie Moore (11) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

9. Rube Waddell (10) Yeah, I wasn’t giving the ERA as much credit as it deserved. Some truly outstanding seasons, and the strikeouts certainly aren’t a bad thing. But his era is pretty well-represented for pitchers. I'm not totally convinced he's the best available white pitcher, but everyone else has issues too. There's a lot of similarities between his record and Pierce's, except for the ERA+. Makes my PHoM this year.

10. George Van Haltren (12) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

11. Quincy Trouppe (13) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

12. Tommy Leach (14) Best Friend no more. Drops because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

13. Gavvy Cravath (15) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I do need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system).

14. Billy Pierce (16) There really isn’t much separating him from Marichal when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great.

15. Cupid Childs (17) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

16. Jake Beckley. (18) I still think his typical season was pretty weak, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Moved past Medwick/Johnson because I really do think the 30s are overrepresented.
(16A Joe Medwick)
17. Ken Boyer (25) Moves up because he missed time in the minors due to military service. It doesn't help his peak, but gives him enough of a career boost to move pass Clarkson. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.
18. Bob Johnson (20) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.
19. Bus Clarkson (19) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.
(19A Clark Griffith, 19B Biz Mackey)
20. Charlie Keller (22) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio et.al. wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)
21. Norm Cash (21) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
22. Alejandro Oms (23) He's definitely a candidate, but he's also one more OF from a well-represented era.
23. Phil Rizzuto (24) Now I’m not so sure why I initally liked him so much. He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.
(23A Cool Papa Bell, 23B Max Carey)
24. Nellie Fox (26) Just can't have him on the same level as Gordon or Childs. Played longer, but didn't have much more value. The defensive advantage doesn't make up for the lack of offense.
(24A Sam Thompson, 24B Richie Ashburn, 24C Rube Foster)
25. Bucky Walters (27) The wartime penalty holds him back, but he does have a strong candidacy.
26. Ben Taylor (28) Top 3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM.
27. Orlando Cepeda (29) You know, his production actually looks pretty similar to Boog Powell's (who's #98 at the moment), albeit lasting a little longer and in the tougher league. That's not really a strong argument to me.
28. Vern Stephens (30) He's close to Rizzuto, but after you account for the war, I don't see any way to have him in front.
29. Ralph Kiner (31) Like I said for Keller's comment, I prefer him among the peak outfielders. Just see him as a little bit better in several ways.
30. Lou Brock (new) Just looking at his numbers, he looks pretty similar to Sam Rice and Harry Hooper. The stolen bases and better leagues are reasons to have him well ahead of those guys, but there just isn't enough of a peak for me to put him any higher than this.

31. Bob Elliott
(31A George Sisler, 31B Hughie Jennings)
32. Edd Roush
33. Elston Howard
34. Burleigh Grimes.
35. Charley Jones
36. Pie Traynor
37. Don Newcombe
38. Frank Howard
39. Tony Lazzeri
40. Marvin Williams

I'm burdened by two jobs at the moment, so I hope people don't object to the absence of a preliminary ballot. I vote on the basis of achievements during prime, working ont he basis of an average season during the prime, and defining prime differently for pitchers, hitting positions (1b+OF) and fielding positions (remaining IF). I used to apply a strict positional balance policy, but I've loosened this a little starting with this ballot, in order to incorporate strong pairngs of candidates. I've tweaked my system to give more value to length of prime.
1 Rube Waddell A pitcher with no fewer than 3 of those seasons worth 4 or 5 Wins above average that I value highly, he swaps places with Kiner since Rube has one more prime season than Ralph.
2 Ralph Kiner His career was short, but for half of it he was comparable to an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Seven home run titles is the third-highest total in MLB history, too.
3 Cupid Childs Between 1890 and 1897 he accumulated 214 Adjusted Batting Runs and 72 Fielding Runs, which is a very high total for an infielder.
4 Jimmy Wynn Way underrated. In terms of Batting Runs + Fielding Runs he's the most impactful of hitters on my ballot.
5 Ken Boyer Boyer is an excellent third baseman in an 11-year prime, and is only a little less valuable than Childs. Another underrated candidate.
6 Thurman Munson Closer to Freehan over prime than people seem to think, I rate these two as of equal value. The difference comes down to Freehan's advantage in best-3-OPS+-years against Munson's more playing time at catcher. I'm giving the greater weight to the playing time this ballot.
7 Minnie Minoso Not quite the height of prime I'd like to see, but he still adds 3 wins a year during it, with solid peak seasons in 1952, 1954 and 1956.
8 Billy Pierce A consistent pitcher offering a steady supply of 2-3 Wins Above Average per season over an eight-year period.
9 Bill Freehan. See Munson comment.
10 Bucky Walters. Equivalent to Pierce over his prime, but offers more high-impact seasons in contrast to greater consistency.
11 Alejandro Oms Oms beats out a crowded field of outer circle HoMer types because he has got the longest prime.
12 Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
13 Edd Roush When he retired he was the 2d-best centrefielder in National League history. Overshadowed by his AL counterparts.
14 Orlando Cepeda By virtue of height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
15 Lou Brock. One cannot ignore that he is, in 1985, the all-time stolen base leader. He also has a very long prime, at 13 years.

Omissions from last time:
Phil Rizzuto: A victim of the abandonment of strict positional balance. All the shortstop candidates seem to have shortcomings.
Elston Howard: His superiority in Batting and Fielding Runs is not enough to keep their value ahead of the playing time advantage possessed by Freehan and Munson.
Tony Oliva: Lost out to Brock for 15th spot, mainly on account of a lack of wider support among the electorate.

Omitted top tens
Jose Mendez: I don't think he's quite as good as the three pitchers already on my ballot.
Joe Sewell: I've got two strikes on Joe. I think his batting value is too tied up in a single season, and I don't trust sabermetric estimates of his fielding contribution. But he's not out yet.

Esteemed newcomers:
Roy White: He's outclassed by the great depth of talent among leftfield candidates, but he's twice the hitter Brock was. Shame he didn't amass a first place in some hitting category.
Mickey Lolich. Mendez is probably better, so what applied to him applies to Lolich moreso.
Catfish Hunter: Ditto, ditto, ditto

Special mention
Jake Beckley: I dunno, maybe I've been underrating him. I might reassess him in 1986 under my system if I have time.

With such an important election this week, I scrutinized my ranking system and decided to overhaul it. I now take each player's season in Win Shares, dividing it by 10 and squaring it. The sum of the seasons equals the career score. Other adjustments are made for position and level of competition

1985 Ballot
1. Charlie Keller - Still the #1. Long, sustained peak and prime. I'm glad to see voters coming around on him.
2. Minnie Minoso - Longest prime on the ballot.
3. Vic Willis (!) - Pitched 300 innings a season for 13 years with a 118 ERA+. Throwing 300 frames at a 160, a couple of 150s, a 130 and a couple of 120s racks up value.
4. Phil Rizzuto (!!) - Holy Cow! This week's discussion vis-a-vis Sewell makes me feel comfortable that my system puts him this high.
5. Jose Mendez - Fights for a place in the upper part of the table, though he'll have to settle for the UEFA Cup instead of the Champions League. Probably a moot point in about 12 hours or so.

6. Bill Freehan - Still bullish on his candidacy and I hope he goes in this week. Massive peak for a catcher.
7. Alejandro Oms - I've long maintained that he is similar to Minoso in career shape and value pattern. My new system better values prime, so Oms is a beneficiary.
8. Nellie Fox - Solid peak and pretty long prime for a middle infielder.
9. Bucky Walters - He's been on my ballot before and comes back with a truly impressive peak.
10. Quincy Trouppe - Seems to always anchor the middle of my ballot. The guy could hit.

11. Lou Brock - The guy who forced me to re-evaluate my ballot. He would've been well off it if I hadn't. Brock's peak -- especially for an outfielder! -- is pretty weak. His HOM case rests on how you value his 11 seasons with at least 20 Win Shares and not his peak of 31, 30, 30.
12. Jimmy Wynn - Had seven seasons where he played at an MVP level or very near to it.
13. Rube Waddell - It takes every bit of his fantastic peak (O, the strikeouts) to keep him in the bottom third of the ballot.
14. Gavy Cravath - I've never really felt like I've had a good handle on his PCL career. After further study this week, he starts here on my ballot.
15. Dick Redding - The Cannonball is still falling...

Consensus Top Ten Returnees
Joe Sewell - 25-30 range, behind Stephens and Clarkson at short. Another 25 WS season would put him on my ballot.
Ralph Kiner - 25-30 range, behind Cepeda, Howard and Johnson at "bat." Only four seasons over 25 WS. Granted, those seasons were 39, 37, 32 and 32, but I'm being intentionally misleading to demonstrate just how weak his prime is.
Billy Pierce - 35-40 range, behind Newcombe, Mullane, Cicotte and Welch. The peak is too weak and the prime is not good enough for long enough to make up the difference.
Cupid Childs - 40-45 range. I'm using WARP1 and WARP2 for in-season competition adjustments, which really seems to hammer the National Leaguers from about 1893 to 1915. I'm agnostic on whether the level of adjustment is justified.
Dobie Moore - 45-50 range. He has the lowest career WS total of anyone in my top 50. There's no questioning that Moore was a HOM-caliber player, but if your career isn't even 10 full seasons, you need to be playing at damn near inner-circle level to make it. That leaves a margin of error so small that you'd need an electron microscope to see it.
Jake Beckley - 40-45 range. I might stop writing about him like he's history's greatest monster, but he's still not going to make a ballot any millennium soon.

43 ballots so far. Still missing a ballot from: andrew siegel, favre, David Foss, mulder and scully (Kelly), AndrewM, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Max Parkinson, jimd, KJOK, the Commish, Got Melky?, and B. Williams doubled to catcher (Vaux begged out this time).

Since there is a battle for the third spot at the moment, no ballots will be counted after 8 PM EST.

Please don't submit them at the last second if it is all possible, since that royally screws me up in regard to posting election results on time. Thanks!

"Don Denkinger blows a call at 1B and the Royals are gifted the World Series."

funny how your mind can play tricks on you - I don't remember that blown call as a game-ender...

>I don't remember that blown call as a game-ender...

Well you gotta admit the Cards had no game after that ;-)

I was cheering for the Royals, I mean, who didn't admire the hell out of George Brett. But honestly, the Royals don't win without that call.

It wasn't. The Cards only got one out in the fateful 9th, and that was on a bunt. St Louis had a team OPS in the Series of 517, scoring fewer than 2 runs per game, while allowing 4 R/G.

Sorry, TomH, I forgot the ;)

1985 ballot: (MP HoMers in bold, this year’s inductees are Ben Taylor, Early Wynn and holding my nose, Dick Allen)

1. Jose Mendez

Would have been the third-best pitcher of the early teens, from what I can see in the good work of the NL folk here at the HOM.

2. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

3. Rube Waddell

Slight change to pitcher rankings, with a touch more emphasis on peak. Waddell hops Redding.

4. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

5. Dick Redding
6. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

7. Joe Sewell

8. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

9. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.


10. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

11. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

12. Ben Taylor
13. George Burns
14. Bobby Veach

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

15. Urban Shocker

16-20. Keller, Cash, Kiner, Lazzeri, Minoso
21-25. Walters, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy, Munson
26-30. Pierce, B. Johnson, W. Wood, R. White, Cuyler
31-35. Cicotte, Freehan, Childs, Youngs, Bridges
36-40. Klein, Tiernan, Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones
41-45. Traynor, Rommel, Trouppe, Boyer, Bradley
46-50. F. Howard, Roush, Wynn, Oms, Willis
51-55. Trout, E. Howard, Seymour, Nicholson, Leach
56-60. Chance, Griffin, Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan
61-65. R. Thomas, Schang, S.J. Wood, Nash, Dunlap
66-70. Luque, Beckley, Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Kiner is 18 – I’ve looked again, and I can’t get him past this.
Minoso is 20, and falling as I look at how many outfielders (hitters) we’re electing.
Pierce is 26.
Wilbur Wood is 28.
Nellie Fox is 75.
GVH is in the 120s.
Lou Brock is below that.

On Freehan, he’s good, but like Billy Williams, I just don’t see it. I don’t mean to read too much into people’s ballots, but I think that he’s getting bonus points for “best available catcher”, as if there’s a shortage of them. I don’t think that there is. If you want a shortage, look at 3B. We’ve (and my PHoM matches) elected 14 catchers. To this point in history, we know that we’re going to elect Bench, Gary Carter, Fisk and probably Simmons. That could/should get us to 18. Call me one of the people who would like to see Freehan run the gauntlet against the true backlog (Trouppe, Schang, Munson) for the last 2-5 spots for catchers in the HoM.

1985 Ballot


1-Dick Redding
Redding’s stock has been dropping with the influx of strong candidates in recent years. He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

2-Jose Mendez
Redding just edges Mendez. Now appears to be favored over Redding by HOM voters. Mendez could be in soon.

3-Minnie Minoso 283 WS
Would’ve easily been over 300 if his Negro League years were in majors. 189 Grey Ink is impressive in any era.

4-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van appears to be losing support! Like Redding, Van had a run where it looked like he would make the HOM. It’s now doubtful.

5-Mickey Welch 354 WS
I continue to hold out hope for the 300-game winner. How can we forget that 1885 season!

6-Lou Brock 348 WS
Good post-season numbers. Lou stood out in a pitchers era. He may not be a number one choice but a top 10 for sure.

7-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

8-Vern Stephens 265 WS
A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

9-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

10-Ken Boyer 279 WS

11-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

12-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

13-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

14-Joe Sewell 277 WS
I still think Stephens was better. But Sewell did a better job of avoiding strikeouts than just about anyone in the history of baseball.

15-Bill Freehan
Probably the top catcher of the 60s. He makes my ballot for the first time.

Comments…Pierce and Kiner are close to breaking my top 15…but Waddell and Childs are way back on my chart. It may be time to give Childs another look. Waddell…too much on the folklore and a fairly short career.

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Charley Jones
2. Rube Waddell
3. Jake Beckley

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his age 26-30 years. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2, his time in the AA, or the fact that he was born in North Carolina, which may have prevented him from entering baseball at an earlier age (he debuted at age 26 in 1876). I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Seems to be getting a little more support. Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those.

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. It’s often been mentioned that Beckley has thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122. A quick and dirty check reveals that only twenty-five other major league players until 1985 have posted thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 120. I’ll spare you the list, but it’s some pretty rarified air: Crawford, Waner, and Wheat are by far the worst players of that group. I am by no means arguing that Beckley somehow belongs in that inner-circle; I just find it an interesting fact. (karlmagnus might argue that he does, however, which could start a fun flame war…)

4. Dobie Moore
5. Billy Pierce

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and (Ernie Banks notwithstanding) has been for a while. He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see how you could put Sewell ahead.

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, averaging 242 IP with an ERA+ of 138 between 1951-58. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

6. Ralph Kiner
7. Jimmy Wynn
8. Orestes Minoso

Kiner won OPS+ titles in ’47, ’49, and ’51—all when there was a guy in the league named Musial, playing in his prime. Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two; I’m happy to see the electorate is beginning to agree.

9. Vic Willis
10. Nellie Fox

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

So far we only have five infielders from the 1950s, with no one new on tap. (Robinson, Resse, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). That is simply too few for the decade. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot. Robinson is similar to Fox, but was a better hitter and had a longer career.

11. Bob Elliott
12. Ken Boyer

Boyer and Elliott make it back onto my ballot after the early 80s third basemen glut. It’s very hard for me to separate the two in my head; Bob was a little better hitter, Ken a little better at defense, but WS has them with almost identical career values. Elliott was clearly the best 3B of his time, while Boyer was not, so he gets a slight edge.

13. Bucky Walters
14. Roger Bresnahan
15. Gavvy Cravath

We are very short on wartime pitchers. Walters prime from ‘39-46 (particularly his ’39-40 peak) earns him a spot. Although it is not a reason I’m voting for him, it would be good to have an HoM rep from the 39-40 Reds pennant winners.

It was a tough battle between Bresnahan and Bill Freehan for a ballot spot, as I have them about even in my system. Bresnahan was, hands down, the best catcher between 1890-1910, while Freehan was a contemporary of Torre and Bench, so I’m Roger makes the ballot.

Gavvy Cravath returns to my ballot after a decade-long absence. He averaged an 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not an age fluke. Similar to Kiner, although Kiner has the higher peak.

16-20: Cupid Childs, Jose Mendez, Bill Freehan, Frank Howard, Dizzy Trout


Jose Mendez: Has been in my pHoM for years, and is still in my top twenty. I will welcome his induction, although I think there are several pitchers with better cases in front of him.

Bill Freehan: See Bresnahan comment. Currently #19 on my ballot.

Cupid Childs: Cupid Childs: I like Fox more, and we have twice as many infielders from the 1890s than we do from the 1950s. But I have nothing bad to say about Childs, who has been in my top twenty for a long time, and is just off the ballot.

Joe Sewell: See Moore comment. Sewell does not stack up well with other SS in the HoM.

1) Keller (1st)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). The only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up.

(2)Freehan (4th)--Like Charlie Bennett or I-Rod, so good with his glove that he was an All-Star even when he hit like a run-of-the-mill catcher and an MVP candidate the few years he really hit.

(3) Mendez (3rd)--Because someone has to go here. Four years as Christy Mathewson and enough additional career that he in not Dizzy Dean.

(4) Roush (5th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except Keller and the third basemen. A star in his own time.

(5) Pierce (9th)--Fits with those we've elected. Jumps ahead of a few guys this week b/c/ he is closer to unique among eligibles.

(6) Cravath (6th)--Not quite the offensive force that Keller or Allen was, but consistently close to that level. The gap between #5 and #25 is very small.

(7) Sewell (8th)-- I see both sides of the argument, but am ultimately persuaded by the rarity of his combination of glove and bat. He is only 24th All-Time among SS, but at least the first 21 would get elect-me votes from me this week (22 and 23 are Bobby Wallace and Alan Trammell). Put differently, there are at least 25 SS in my All-Time Top 200 players.

(8) Bob Johnson (10th)--Noses ahead of Minoso.

(9) Minoso (11th)

(10) Cash (12th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(11) Bridges (13th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(12) Leach (15th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that being worth more than 5 or 10 spaces.

(13) Trouppe (14th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's.

(14) Wynn (nr/16th)--Welcome to the ballot. Not much to add.

(15) Boyer (nr/17th)--Just holds off Elliot, Childs, Duffy, and Oms for final ballot spot. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

Kiner only had four particularly good years (he's in the 20's), Childs is #17 but is held back by all the quality offensive 3B of his era (their performance suggesting that Childs position dominance is at least part random), and Waddell strikes me as not worth the trouble (he's around number 55 or 60).

The new guys are all between 40 and 85. FWIW, I have them Munson, Brock, White, Lolich, and Hunter.

1985 Ballot

1. Larry Doyle (2) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests.
2. Cupid Childs (4) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.
3. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
4. Ralph Kiner (5) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
5. Billy Pierce (8) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA.
6. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles.
7. Charley Jones (7) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
8. Dick Redding (10) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
9. Rube Waddell (nr) -- Turns out I was being too hard on him for giving up so many UER. Its weird that a strikeout artist would be so susceptible to bad fielding, but an adjustment only drops his ERA+ by a few points. He's certainly has to peak and the career rates to be a HOM-er.
10. Bill Freehan (nr) -- Convinced he's worthy. Mostly forgotten by history, but he was a great fielder and had several big years with the stick in a poor hitting era.
11. Roger Bresnahan (11) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
12. Bob Elliott (12) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
13. Joe Sewell (13) -- Top SS of the 1920s. High OBP, excellent glove. Decent peak, but a peak that warrants a longer career for a slam dunk induction. Still better than most. New candidates have pushed him off of many ballots and it will be interesting to watch to what degree his support returns as we dip deeper into the backlog.
14. Charlie Keller (14) -- Incredible hitter for several years. Career shortened by minors on the front end, injuries on the back end and war in the middle. Very difficult guy to judge. Certainly HOM-level, but will he get enough time-credit to get inducted?
15. Al Rosen (15) -- Another top-level player, but for short enough to keep him out of the HOM so far.
16-20. Browning, BJohnson, Chance, Lombardi, Fox,
21-25. Beckley, Welch, Trouppe, DMoore, Roush,
26-30. Minoso, FHoward, Mendez, Cash, Leach,
31-35. JWynn, Cepeda, Brock, KBoyer, Newcombe,
36. TBridges

But honestly, the Royals don't win without that call.

You can't know this. The blown call was on the leadoff hitter in the inning. The Cardinals still get out of that inning with no worse than a tie, IMO, if they don't botch Balboni's foul pop and Darrell Porter gets in front of Worrell's pitch in the dirt, forcing an intentional walk to McRae.

-- MWE

Re: posts #121-124 and 130: that hasn't happened yet. Right now it's Jan. or Feb. of 1985. How are things going in St. Louis? Well, for one thing, Bruce Sutter just signed with the Braves as a free agent, leaving the Cardinals without an established closer - that's all that people seem to be talking about. But Whitey just pulled of one of his best "shuffle trade" packages, where by "shuffle trade" I mean a scheme of trading position A for position B, then turning right around and trading B for A. In this case A and B were right-handed power-hitting OF/1B and left-handed starting pitcher. George Hendrick for John Tudor, then Dave LaPoint for Jack Clark. To be fair, the Cardinals had to throw in a little more talent for the Giants including David Green (so he's not a future superstar after all?) and Jose Uribe (who had been playing in the minors as Jose Gonzalez, and who wasn't going to take Ozzie's job anyway.) But line it up as Lapoint for Tudor and Hendrick for Clark. Tudor is 5 years older than LaPoint, but check the ERA+ for the past three years: 119, 107, 110 for Tudor, 92, 88, 97 for La Point. (I don't think most people understood how good Tudor already was. And LaPoint was fungible.) And Hendrick for Clark? This time it's Clark who's 6 years younger. And Hendrick has been good, and there are already some injury warning flags flying over Clark, but really - which one would you want?

As for talking about the '85 Series - let's have this conversation next year, OK?

1985 Ballot:

1. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

2. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

3. Jose Mendez – Great peak pitcher with some hitting credentials added.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

9. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

10. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

12. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

13. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

14. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

15. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

16. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

17. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

18. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

19. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

20. Ken Boyer – Giving him a little war credit nudges him into the top 20.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Joe Sewell – Close to making my top 20. See Moore as better.

Bill Freehan – Somewhere in the 25-30 range.

Sorry for the cribbing from my 1983 ballot. I'm insanely busy and haven't had as much time as usual the last month!

1) C. Keller-A monster hitter, substantially better at his peak than any other hitter on the ballot except for Dick Allen, who was batshit crazy (more to come on that later) and Al Rosen, whose peak is abbreviated to a fault.

2) R. Kiner-Awesome hitting peak, best slugger of his generation, defense not Luzinski-bad. Downgraded below Keller by the influence of the opinion of his peers, who thought him a flawed player.

3) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Bad "peripherals", but monster run prevention + monster durability is a rare and valuble thing.

4) R. Waddell-Dominating pitcher who didn't need his defenses help. Red herring after red herring thrown in his path to prevent election. Astonishing K-rates indicate perhaps the best "stuff" of his time (excluding his near-contemporary, the Big Train).

5) G. Cravath-Massive minor league credit. I can't see the argument against his induction; say, hypothetically, that Hideki Matsui had come over from Japan at age 31 and hit, not as well as he already hit (All-Star), but even better, like Pujolsian numbers. That's Cravath. How is he not an HOMer?

6) A. Rosen-Peak needs no commentary. I understand why a career guy cant vote for him, but he had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke.

7)C. Childs-Best 2B baseman of his generation, well thought of by his peers, mysteriously forgotten post 1900. Played in a difficult league and dominated it.

8)K. Boyer-Good offense, great defense. Probably should go higher, but i dont have the guts to pull the trigger. Baseball Prospectus loves Boyer, has him as montrously valuble. May be a victim of the usual bias against things we cant measure, since much of his value is tied up in defense but without the "legend" of Brooks.

9)J. Mendez-With every reevaluation, he falls further down my ballot. It's not that I think he was a bad player, I just think Waddell and Dean are better qualified. Waddell and Dean had the top ~20 or so peaks of all-time. That's a difficult comparison for Mendez to achieve favorably. I also don't buy the demographics argument that people are advocated to push for some of the last NgL players.

10)B. Walters-2 great years (1939-40). But they're truly excellent years, and his team won a pennant in '39, and the whole banana in '40. Pretty good hitter, 111 OPS+ in 1939. A pitcher leading the league in ERA+ and IP is pretty rare. Walters did it two years in a row

11)D. Moore-The big unknown, but probably the best SS of his time. Impossible to comment, since you're basically relying on others' assessments of his greatness.

12)E. Roush-I see him as better than Duffy, and also better than the CF's from the overrrepresented 1930's. He'd have to be really mediocre defensively not to be a 10 win player in his best seasons; I think he was better than that. I see him as similar to, but better than, Bernie Williams.

13) Billy Pierce-I see him as substantially below theoher pitchers on ballot, but better than the other alternatives. Looks much better compared to pitchers of his generation than compared to pitchers of all-time. Sometimes that can be explained by simply a dry run of pitchers (eg, 1980's), and I worried about that w/r/t Pierce b/c of the war. But now looking at 50's pitchers, I just think it was a function of weird usage of that time.

14)B. Freehan- A classic example of a historically great defensive player underrated by the HoM because that defense can't be quantified as well as offensive value. Superb hitter in context for a few years, as well. The best of a bunch of short-peak catchers, because of superior defense and durability. Was considered an all-star even in years when he wasn't hitting, which speaks well for his defense. Downgraded because I'm not sure he stands above the other catchers as much as I originally believed.

15) T. Munson-He's really much better than he appears because his peak comes in pre-renovation Yankee Stadium. I'm not inclined to give out intangible points, but if any position gets 'em, its catcher, and if any catcher gets 'em, its Munson. Was shocked how well he compares to Fisk, peak-wise. Rates above Howard because its hard to get a fix on the true value of Howard's 1961 peak year, which is an expansion season with lots of fluky numbers, especially from Yankees. Could see it going the other way. But I think in his best 2 seasons, Munson may have been a 10-win player in his best 2 seasons in a neutral context, which is pretty awesome. Totally shocked by how good he is when you look closely, can't emphasize that enough.

1985 Ballot

1. (2) Dobie Moore. He was a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years and high peak SS’s are hard to find. As I’ve said in the past, I think his career could be seen as being of comparable length and quality to Boudreau’s.

2. (3) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ not impressive, perhaps, but it’s OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career. Similar credentials to Brooks Robinson, but slightly more peak and less career, I suppose.

3. (4) Edd Roush. He’s hard to get a handle on. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other eligible candidates.

4. (5) Larry Doyle. As far as I have been able to determine, BP’s assessment of his defense is not consistent with other historical ratings (Win Shares, Diamond Mind) or contemporary accounts. Not many 2B have been his equal offensively. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

5. (7) Billy Pierce. To my mind, the best eligible pitcher. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. Pierce is neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

6. (8) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him more than I like the three 1890s OFs.

7. (9) Dick Redding. I think his closest comp may be Juan Marichal. By reputation would seem to belong in the HoM, though the projections in his thread always seemed not to support that reputation.

8. (10) Rube Waddell. Deserves respect for top 10 finishes in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years, Ks per 9 innings for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134 (with two years at 179), DERA of 3.67/3.76, 248 PRAA. Even accounting for innings pitched per season, those are some impressive numbers.

9. (11) Geo. Van Haltren. Never an elite player, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

10. (12) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

11. (13) Ralph Kiner. I don’t really like this type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

12. (14) Bill Freehan. Excellent defense. Good hitter during his peak seasons.

13. (15) Minnie Minoso. Spent the 1950s in the top 10 in pretty much every offensive category in the AL. Gets some NeL credit.

14. (new) George Burns. The Lou Brock of the 1910s? Actually, I think Burns was clearly better than Brock.

15. (new) Jose Mendez. First time ever on the ballot. Nudges out Bucky Walters, though I have them rated about the same.

Next 10
Bucky Walters
Quincy Trouppe
Charlie Keller
Phil Rizzuto
Alejandro Oms
Tommie Leach
Vern Stephens
Jimmy Ryan
Ken Boyer
Jimmy Wynn

Required disclosures:
Joe Sewell.
Unless I could re-kindle my long lost love for Herman Long, Sewell would probably be the next SS on my list--which I suppose would make him #30-35 or so.

51 ballots in so far. The third place election is shaping up to very possibly be the closest ever.

These are also the most amusing consensus scores I've ever seen. I'll leave the eventual recap to OCF, but the highest score is currently -7.

1. Ralph Kiner: Tremendous hitter. Seven home run titles! Easy number 1.
2. Jose Mendez: Best pitcher on ballot. Excellent peak.
3. Dobie Moore: I'm convinced. Great hitter at SS.
4. Bill Freehan: Great defensive catcher, not bad at bat, either. He belongs in.
5. Joe Sewell: I still like him a lot, but not as much as Moore.
6. Hugh Duffy: 16.72 RC/27 in his best season. That's freakin awesome. Good glove, made his teams better. I like him a lot.
7. Ken Boyer: Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
8. Billy Pierce: Excellent peak for a pitcher of his day.
9. Rube Waddell: Awesome peak, good/great prime.
10. Thurman Munson: I might get some heat for this placement, but I think Thurm transcended the numbers. A great leader, he was the unifying force in those "Bronx Zoo" clubhouses. He was a pretty good player, too.
11. Alejandro Oms: I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
12. Charlie Keller: Poor man's Kiner. Close to Kiner with war credit, but not quite there, and definitely wouldn't have 7 HR titles.
13. Jake Beckley: Took a closer look at him, and moved him here. I wasn't giving him enough credit for the glove. Some sort of a peak, and he'd be top 5.
14. Minnie Minoso: Still don't know what to make of him.
15. Cupid Childs: Pretty good second baseman.


16. GVH
17. Pete Browning
18. Lou Brock: I don't see much to indicate he belons anywhere in the top 15. Did he have a peak? I can't see one. Wasn't great defensively, despite the speed, but for what he was, a leadoff guy, he was pretty darn good.
19. Ben Taylor
20. Norm Cash
21. Frank Howard
22. Roy White: Not much worse than Brock, I don't think
23. Chuck Klein
24. Cannonball Dick Redding
25. Addie Joss
26. Nellie Fox
27. Mickey Lolich: Best new pitcher on the ballot, but not saying too much.
28. Charley Jones
29. Dizzy Dean
30. Gavy Cravath
31. Roger Bresnahan
32. Quincy Trouppe
33. Sam Rice
34. Pie Traynor
35. Vada Pinson
36. Jimmy Wynn
37. Orlando Cepeda
38. Catfish Hunter: I didn't realize how overrated he was. Tremendously streaky, and really not all that special.
39. Bob Johnson
40. John McGraw

The third place election is shaping up to very possibly be the closest ever.

It's also extremely puzzling, Evan.

McCovey will pad our consensus stats next "year", but ´87 is gonna be fun too.

When Evan posted that, I had a -6 consensus score - it's possible we're not changing from elect 2 to elect 3 in quite the same way. (And that was before Get Melky? posted - he'll be the high outlier.) We probably won't set the record for lowest average consensus score however - the record of -15.4 set in 1968 seems safe for now. But we do already have 84 candidates receiving votes - jimd, where are you?

Next year we'll have McCovey. but the moment we get past him, we'll be disagreeing even more wildly.

Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. JOE SEWELL, SS. 35 POW, 103 WARP1, 346 RCAP & .549 OWP in 8,830 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Comps are Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. Better than Ernie Banks. Best major league SS of the 1920’s, AND 3rd best SS of 1910-1930 period.

2. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

3. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

6. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very good seasons.

7. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

8. JOSE MENDEZ, P. 154 MLE Neut Fibonacci Win Points. 114 MLE ERA+ over 3,001 MLE Innings. Similar career to Orel Hershiser perhaps, only a little better. Had some really great years early in his career, then changed positions due to arm problems at age 27 and was never really a star player after that.

9. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

10. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

11. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

12. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

13. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

14. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

15. THURMAN MUNSON, C. 25 POW, 72 WARP1, 174 RCAP & .571 OWP in 5,903 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Initially thought his career would be too short to make my ballot, but in comparison to his contemporaries, he still graded out around # 4-5 in his 30-year window.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:

NEWBIES OF NOTE:

ROY WHITE, LF. 15, POW, 79 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .616 OWP in 7,735 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Just not quite enough for a corner outfielder.

LOU BROCK, LF. 2 POW, 93 WARP1, 56 RCAP & .567 OWP in 11,235 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Sorry Lou, but way too many ‘average’ type seasons can’t be overcome with Post-season heroics.

MICKEY LOLICH, P.5 POW, 84 WARP1, 62 RSAA, 129 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 104 ERA+ in 3,640 innings. A couple of all-star quality seasons only.

CATFISH HUNTER, P.9 POW, 77 WARP1, 56 RSAA, 125 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 104 ERA+ in 3,449 innings. Other than the fact his big years were slightly bigger, he’s a clone of Lolich.

RETURNEES:

BILL FREEHAN, C. 18 POW, 76 WARP1, 188 RCAP & .554 OWP in 6,899 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Just misses the ballot for now.

RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, 69 WARP1 and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Competition in OF tough for a spot on ballot. Just misses

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

Better late than never!

1. Gavy Cravath RF (3) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

2. Joe Sewell SS (4) - With my revised rankings, he's smack dab in the middle of the pack among HoM SS's. I'm glad he didn't get rushed in, but now I've come full circle and think he's waited too long.

3. Jack Quinn SP (6) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a huge leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26.

4. Urban Shocker SP (7) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

5. Billy Pierce SP (8) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. He took a bit of a dip with my league adjustments (AL much worse than NL during his tenure). But I still think he's worthy.

6. Charley Jones LF (9) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

7. Jake Beckley 1B (10) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

8. Bill Freehan C (11) - Freehan was a heckuva player. I see Schang as the better hitter, but Freehan was much better with the leather and had a higher peak. They are extremely close, but I lean towards Freehan right now.

9. Tommy Bridges SP (13) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

10. Thurman Munson C (n/e) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

11. Wally Schang C (15) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

12. Cupid Childs 2B (16) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

13. Jimmy Wynn CF (17) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

14. Dave Bancroft SS (18) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

15. Burleigh Grimes SP (19) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

Honorable Mention:

16. Phil Rizzuto (20T) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

17. Minnie Minoso (--) - I was underrating his pre MLB play.

18. Norm Cash 1B (12) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example. This is a conservative ranking. I will be VERY disappointed if he isn't eventually elected.

19. Cecil Travis (20T) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

20. Ralph Kiner (--) - I dropped him a fair amount in 1981 - He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in the competition this tight. He's not that far behind though.

21. Charlie Keller (--) - I've been convinced he's closer to Charley Jones than Ross Youngs.

22. Bob Johnson (--) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

23. Rube Waddell (--) - Moves up again 1984. I've got him even with Mordecai Brown now. I feel Waddell should be a HoMer - he should have been elected instead of McGinnity and Griffith way back when. He was better than Bob Lemon - who ranks with Griffith and McGinnity as our 3 big mistakes, in my opinion. But compared to the pitchers on this ballot, I can't rank him higher. Peak-wise he's arguably the 2nd best pitcher on the ballot, behind only Dean, with Cicotte and Rucker very close, depending on how you define peak. I can't vote for him right now, but I hope we elect him.

24. José Méndez (--) - I'm moving him up a little this week, I went back and looked him over again and I was underrating him.

25. Tommy Henrich (--) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

Jim Fregosi - in a pack with guys like Vern Stephens, not too far below these guys.

Roy White & Lou Brock - White was much better than Brock, unless I'm missing something. Neither are quite ballot worthy though. I could be convinced being a career guy that I have Brock too low, but I'd have to be way off to get him up to ballot worthy.

Mickey Lolich & Catfish Hunter - I have Lolich a little better than Hunter. Hunter had the higher peak, but Lolich more career value (better rate and more translated IP). Neither are close to being on the ballot. I have Lolich #84 among eligible pitchers, Hunter #92. The pitchers inbetween them are Max Lanier, Freddie Fitzsimmons, Johnny Sain, Howard Ehmke, Sad Sam Jones, Claude Osteen and Milt Pappas.

Ballot for 1985 (cast)

Rearranging the teddy bears as I begin integrating more position balancing into my system. OF/1B take a hit.

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) J. SEWELL -- Nice combination of WARP peak and career. Clearly the best MLB SS of the 1920's. Prime 1921-29. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1926, and 1928; WS adds 1929, at 3rd. Other star seasons include 1921 and 1927. Honorable Mention (HM) in 1922.

2) B. WALTERS -- Reevaluated his peak; he's ballot-worthy, but there's no room. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

3) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

4) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) J. MENDEZ -- Bumped up as a result of my battery reevaluation.

8) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

9) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

10) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he's ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

11) B. FREEHAN -- Reassessing catchers in general. Prime 1964-73. Best player candidate 1968. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1967, 1968; WS adds 1971. Other star seasons include 1964, plus 1973 at 1B. HM in 1972.

12) P. TRAYNOR -- Reassessing IF in general also. Traynor and Bancroft were major beneficiaries.

13) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

14) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

15) T. MUNSON -- Reassessing catchers in general. Close to Howard and Freehan.

16) D. BANCROFT -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

17) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

18) B. PIERCE -- My pitcher's glut moves up. Prime 1950-58. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1955; WS adds 1952, 1953, 1958. Other star seasons include 1951. HM in 1950, 1956, 1957.

19) R. WADDELL -- HOM needs pitchers. Prime 1902-08. Best player candidate 1902. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1905; WARP adds 1904. Other star seasons include 1903. HM in 1906, 1907, 1908.

20) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Dizzy Dean, Bill Mazeroski,
23-24) Norm Cash, Jake Beckley,
25-26) Ralph Kiner, Joe Tinker,
27-28) Bill Hutchison, Hugh Duffy,
29-30) Dizzy Trout, Edd Roush,
31-32) Willie Davis, Tommy Leach,
33-34) Dick Redding, Nellie Fox,

(Frankly the above 21-34 have not been appropriately reordered, though they aren't top-20).

Jim D is always a late voter, but this is cutting it a little close...

It will be a shame if his guy doesn't get in because he missed the deadline....

And it's settled!

I'm willing to cut a little slack. And that's coming from someone whose only missed ballot cost a guy an election.

I think 'getting it right' is more important than 'sticking to the letter of the law'.

Guess it doesn't matter!

The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.

Yes the 3rd slot was decided at 7:48. In fact the ultimate #3 was still #6 at 7:32.

In fact the ultimate #3 was still #6 at 7:32.

He was #7 the next-to-the-last time I updated.

I think 'getting it right' is more important than 'sticking to the letter of the law'.

When it comes to elections where there is no real contest, I totally agree. However, if we allow voters to post ballots after the deadline when it's a close election, it's going to raise hackles on the backs of some of the friends of the defeated candidate.

Of course, you're the boss and could have changed HoM history by having Joe Gordon elected earlier than he really did if you had wanted to. :-)

When it comes to elections where there is no real contest, I totally agree. However, if we allow voters to post ballots after the deadline when it's a close election, it's going to raise hackles on the backs of some of the friends of the defeated candidate.

Heh - see I think the opposite.

In elections that are close, that's where getting everyone (that wants to be) in is what is important. In elections where the ballot doesn't matter, I don't think it's nearly as important . . .

Any thoughts?

In elections that are close, that's where getting everyone (that wants to be) in is what is important. In elections where the ballot doesn't matter, I don't think it's nearly as important . . .

Pick your poison:

1. Election results affected by a voter who doesn't get his ballot in on time.
2. Election results announced, plaques up, then the results (and plaques) are changed due to a late voter.

I don't like either. Its best if everyone votes on time. If #2 happens it had better be someone who had been voting for at least five 'years'. New ballots that late would might bring up fears of strategic voting. That's one of the reasons why we don't post running tallies. We don't want to influence (even unintentionally/subliminally) the monday voters.

If #2 was to occur we would have to make the decision by 7:30 ET to wait and then not post the results.

How much time do people need to post a ballot? There's 8 days of balloting plus a week of discussion when anyone can ask to have their ballot posted for them if they're going to be out of town. If a person can't manage to get a ballot together in all that time. . . .

There has to be a deadline sometime, and it should be enforced.