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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, September 25, 2006

1986 Ballot

New candidates: Willie McCovey, Willie Horton, and Jose Cardenal.

Top-ten returnees: Billy Pierce, Rube Waddell, Ralph Kiner, Minnie Minoso, Cupid Childs, Ken Boyer, and Dobie Moore.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 25, 2006 at 12:09 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 25, 2006 at 12:18 PM (#2186920)
I'll post a ballot sometime later this week.

I have my North Carolina State Real Estate Exam this Thursday, so I may not be as attentive as usual until then. With that said, I wont be as busy studying as I was with the course exam, so the wheels should keep on rolling here. :-)
   2. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 12:21 PM (#2186922)
All 3 elected off my ballot – what a swiz! McCovey not quite as good as I’d expected -- low number of AB per season and long tail to career – longer career than Kiner/Howard puts him higher, but not #1. Horton off bottom of consideration set. Hiller good enough, but not enough career – even adjusting relief innings, he’s only about 1700 equivalent.

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s and 1930s pitcher glut – 7 more wins than Lefty Grove! 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

3. (N/A-11-14-N/A-15-13-14-12-12-13-14-13-9-9-5-3-3-3) Rube Waddell. Up again on further reexamination of the minor league credit question. Only 193-143, and only 2961 IP but 134 ERA+, and UER were high but not exceptional. If you give minor league credit, he goes to say 3300-3400IP, and is clearly a HOMer.

4. (N/A) Willie McCovey Will doubtless get elected this year, but not top tier – counting stats less than I’d have thought. 2211 hits at 148 TB+BB/PA .574, TB+BB/Outs .888. Below Beckley on career length, or rather density (low AB/year.) Slightly less than his reputation.

5. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

6. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

7. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

8. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!
   3. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 12:22 PM (#2186923)
11. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
-11-11-13-13-11-10) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

12. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12-13-13-14-14-12-11) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

13. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

15. (N/A-10-12-N/A-15-N/A-15-14-15-N/A-15-14-N/A-15-14) Ralph Kiner Only 1451 hits, but an OPS+ of 149. Doesn’t really deserve war years bonus (too young.) TB+BB/PA .617, TB+BB/Outs .991. Closest comp is Hack Wilson, but Kiner was a little better. Down a bit because of short career.


16. (N/A-15) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back off again – bad luck – if HOM had elected my guys, he’d be #13.

16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars.

18. Billy Pierce. Surprisngly good ERA+ in weaker league but not a Yankee. 3307 innings at 119 ERA+ 211-169 definitely better than Redding and Quinn, somewhere around Maglie. Swayed by consensus so moved him up towards ballot.

19. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

20. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. Minnie Minoso. Even if you add extra years, he’s a shorter career than Oms, and not as good as Johnson. 1963 ML hits at OPS+ of 130, TB+BB/PA .498 , TB+BB/Outs .759

23. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays

24. Ben Taylor. Not all that far below Beckley and better than Van Haltren.
25. Orlando Cepeda
26. Norm Cash
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
28. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
29. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
30. Lou Brock. Consumed a huge number of outs. TB+BB/PA .445, not bad, but TB+BB/Outs .639, pathetic. OPS+109 would be 112 if you adjust for stolen bases. Looks like Sam Rice (also 112, but 2987 hits adjusts to about 3130 when multiplied by 162/154) to me.
31. Mickey Vernon
32. Thurmon Munson Slightly better than Freehan, in very slightly shorter career, which doesn’t get much longer with “dead credit” since he was nearly done in ’79. 1558 hits at OPS+116. Played much more of each season than Freehan, which should be a plus. TB+BB/PA .445, TB+BB/Outs .645.
33. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
34. Sal Maglie.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. Bob Elliott
39. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
40. (N/A) Dick Lundy
41. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. Kiki Cuyler
45. Deacon McGuire
46. Boog Powell
47. Jim Fregosi.
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pye Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Curt Simmons
58. Roger Bresnahan.
59. Wayte Hoyt.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Vada Pinson
62. Gil Hodges
63. Jules Thomas.
64. Rico Carty.
65. Wilbur Cooper
66. Bruce Petway.
67. Jack Clements
68. Bill Monroe
69. Herb Pennock
70. Chief Bender
71. Ed Konetchy
72. Jesse Tannehill
73. Bobby Veach
74. Lave Cross
75. Tommy Leach.
76. Tom York

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
   4. Qufini Posted: September 25, 2006 at 01:23 PM (#2186944)
karl, your comments regarding Ben Taylor cite him as "better than Van Haltren" yet you've got Taylor trailing GVH by several spots.
   5. Captain Joe Bivens, Pointless and Wonderful Posted: September 25, 2006 at 01:27 PM (#2186947)
Does George Mitterwald ever get any consideration? Because he had a great ability to tune out hecklers, and I think that is an asset.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 01:35 PM (#2186954)
Chris F. Sorry yes, realized that after I'd posted it. I promoted van Haltren substantially this time, and omitted to remove the reference from Taylor. It dated back to a period when Van H. was getting a lot of love from the electorate; my upgrading of van H. reflects the fact that we had downgraded him rather too far. My opinion on Taylor and his position haven't changed; he may make the ballot if the damn electorate stops electing players I wouldn't vote for.
   7. rawagman Posted: September 25, 2006 at 01:56 PM (#2186969)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.

No big readjustments from me this week - have a paper to write. Last week's backlog threesome removes three from my ballot (#'s 5,7 and 13). One spot is filled by Stretch. Nellie Fox joins him in my hallowed ranks. I'm not expecting to be overly impressed by anyone in the 1987 ballot, so Kiner, Trouppe and Dick Allen should be up next.

Other new guys - Manny Sanguillen makes #15 on my eligible catcher rankings, between Earl Battey and Tim McCarver. He looks like he was a good all-around catcher.
Willie Horton is not in my top-17 among LF. Not a sniff from him.
Paul Blair was tempting, but not quite up to the standards of Curt Flood and Fielder Jones on the back-end of my CF list.
J.R. Richard is a lesser version of Smokey Joe Wood. But, whetreas Smokey Joe is my #10 eligible SP, JR is off the list. He had nothing outside of his amazing (and short) peak. John Hiller is worth mentioning. Only eligible reliever on my list. Currently at 21 among all eligible pitchers. (With 14 in my top 75, that would put Hiller around 120-140.)
Top 10s outside my 15:
4) Billy Pierce - He does not stick out in my system through either peak or career. If Pierce, why not Bridges? (27)
7) Minnie Minoso - Similar problems to Pierce. Minoso is currently 16th - he probably be on the ballot next 'year' (16)
8) Cupid Childs - I just don;t see the love. He was good, but I would rather build my team around Nellie Fox as pivot man (30)
10) Dobie Moore - I reevaluated his Wrecker's play and am willing to give him some credit for it. But his career is still too short. I'll take Vern Stephens instead. (28)

1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Willie McCovey - I am downgrading the peak a bit due to expansion and weaker pitchers, but he was still awesome enough to rank 2nd. (PHOM)
3)Rube Waddell - Nothing in his resume tells me he wasn't a dominant pitcher (PHOM) - I was highly tempted to keep him 2nd and have McCovey come in at 3rd, but I began to fear subconscious politicking, so I will give McCovey the benefit of his own monster peak and Waddell slips (for the moment) to 3rd.
4)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on (and up!!) the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
5)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him behind only Waddell as far as pitchers go in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
8)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
9)Ralph Kiner - So much black ink, so little time. Super Peak!
10)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week.
((10a)Dick Allen))
((10b)Billy Williams - Quite the sweet swing he had. His career with Kiner's peak would look something like Frank Robinson.))

11)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
((11a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((11b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))

12)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
13)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good.
14)Orlando Cepeda
15)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
16)Minnie Minoso - still very good. Maybe a wee bit overrated.
17)Wally Berger - super-underrated
18)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((18a)Juan Marichal))
19)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
20)Roger Bresnahan
21)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
22)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((22a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
23)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
24)Chuck Klein
25)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
26)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((26a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
27)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting or fielding. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.
28)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
29)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
30)Cupid Childs
31)Pete Browning
32)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
33)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
34)Bus Clarkson - A newcomer to the consideration set. More shades of Quincy.
35)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
36)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
37)Phil Rizzuto
38)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
39)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
40)John McGraw
41)Jimmy Ryan
42)Cy Williams
43)Dolf Camilli
44)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
45)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
46)George Kell
47)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
48)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
49)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
50)Johnny Evers
51)Elston Howard
52)Bob Johnson
53)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
54)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
55)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
56)Red Schoendienst
57)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
58)Thurmon Munson - see below.
59)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
60)Johnny Pesky
61)Hippo Vaughn
62)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
63)Tip O'Neill
64)Rocky Colavito
65)Denny Lyons
66)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
67)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
68)Lon Warneke
69)Don Newcombe
70)Kiki Cuyler
71)Urban Shocker
72)Alejandro Oms
73)Tony Lazzeri
74)Jimmy Williams
75)Bill Nicholson
   8. rawagman Posted: September 25, 2006 at 02:04 PM (#2186978)
karkl - when you fix yoru Taylor comment, you could also check your ballot manuscript and fix the spellings of Mr.'s Hoyt and Traynor.
   9. Daryn Posted: September 25, 2006 at 02:04 PM (#2186979)
1. Willie McCovey, 1b – as many homeruns as Ted Williams and led the league in OPS, HR/AB, SLG and OPS+ three years in a row. Tied with Heilmann and ahead of Killebrew and Matthews on the all-time OPS+ list. I don’t even see him in the same ballpark as the backlog.

2. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

3. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread.

Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero.
Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more total bases than Brock: One (Pinson).
Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more runs than Brock: Two (Ryan and Van Haltren).

4. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

5. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

6. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. Rube Waddell, p -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+, the .574 winning percentage, the 46 black ink points, and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

9. Ralph Kiner, of – He is my highest peak/prime only candidate. I cannot ignore seven consecutive home run titles and a 149 career OPS+. A freak pick on my ballot with his woeful ~1450 hits, but I just like everything else a lot.

10. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Pierce, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I’m not sure what to do at this point on my ballot because I don’t think any of these guys are deserving. That makes it harder for me to distinguish between them and somewhat arbitrarily give points to those who make the top 15 and no points to the rest.

11. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made this year. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate. Kiner is already on my ballot because of this.

12. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

13. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

14. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

15. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

16. Pie Traynor -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
17. Ken Boyer – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach.
18. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.
19. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
20. Dobie Moore
21. Minnie Minoso

Childs isn't even in my top 75. I must have troubling translating his position and era into my rankings. I didn't have Jennings in my top 75 either.

Pierce is an okay candidate, but not my cup of tea. He's in my 40s.
   10. Daryn Posted: September 25, 2006 at 02:12 PM (#2186987)
I think we should require comments on the top 10 returnees, not just the returnees from last year's top 10. As we get into this deep backlog, the 13th ranked candidate will only be 5 or so years from induction in some cases.
   11. sunnyday2 Posted: September 25, 2006 at 02:33 PM (#2187007)
Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more total bases than Brock: One (Pinson).
Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more runs than Brock: Two (Ryan and Van Haltren).

This would seem to prove that raw, traditional numbers are of little import and insofar as Brock's case is based on raw, traditional numbers, his case is not that good.
   12. Daryn Posted: September 25, 2006 at 02:40 PM (#2187014)
I don't see how it proves that.
   13. DavidFoss Posted: September 25, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2187029)
Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more at bats than Brock: None
Number of unelected Hall of Merit eligible players with more outs than Brock: Two (Aparicio and Maranville)

He had a long career with great in-season durability batting leadoff. He's going to rate high in the raw counting stats.
   14. Daryn Posted: September 25, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#2187038)
He didn't get a long career in the leadoff position because he was dating the owner's daughter.

He had 10 seasons in which he got MVP votes, plus another season as an All-Star. he was perceived to be great, in part because of a skill (speed) that isn't measured well by saberstats.

There are three types of Hall of Meriters (at least in my view, and it appears to be supported by our electorate so far). Great players who played a long time, great players who played a shorter time, and very good players who played a very long time.

Anyway, this is the ballot thread so I'll stop.
   15. sunnyday2 Posted: September 25, 2006 at 03:05 PM (#2187041)
Yes he's going to rate high in raw counting stats. But does that nec. mean he should rate high on a ballot? Then why aren't Pinson and Ryan and GVH better candidates? Or at least more than one of them among the top 21 on Daryn's ballot?
   16. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 25, 2006 at 03:17 PM (#2187054)
Murf, good luck on the Real Estate test

1986 ballot

In honor of the activity going on in the Willie Horton Heat thread….

Welcome to my friends. This is a house, a house is a HOM, and a HOM’s where I belong….

1. Willie McCovey:
Transport is arranged.
#1 easy. Great, great peak. Perhaps inflated by expansion, but even so, wonderful. Much of career is short-time filler where he hit like the dickens but in limited playing time due to a combination of Cepeda and bad knees. It’s enough to make formidable shoulder seasons and propel him to the top of the ballot.

2. Bucky Walters:
I trust you will tell me, if I make a fool of myself.
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it. That’s why he’s above Pierce for me. Am I his bestest friend?

3. Quincy Trouppe:
We traipse around the table talking sentences so incomplete…Best catcher available. Too bad we can’t find more consensus on this guy. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different.

4. Charley Jones:
Walk, with your credit card in the air!
Best left fielder available. Sorry Minnie, sorry Bob, Bobby, and Ralph, oh and George J. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices all because he wanted to get paid. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

5. Roger Bresnahan:
Spells have been cast and the urge has been lost.
Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game. Bresnahan nq Freehan, but long since good enough. When’s his election date?

6. Billy Pierce:
Pick out some Brazilian nuts for your engagement.
Wonderful 1950s ace pitcher, and, with luck, the next worthy member of the HOM. The innings may seem low, but I believe it is, in some part, due to his frequent use as a fireman. Lots o’ leverage there, plus he was an excellently effective moundsman. Is he better than Waddell? If you’re a fan of Waddell, then who cares? He’s at least as good, and that’s good enough. If you don’t like Waddell, then I say yes, but it’s not by much.

7. Tony Mullane:
I’d like to check out your public protests, why you complaining?
Again with the unfair labor practice guys! Mullane racked up great seasons in the 1880s, got a one-year booting, continued racking up great seasons, pitched well in the 1890s NL, and looks a heckuva lot better than Mickey Welch to me.

8. Wilbur Cooper:
We are underused.
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while.

9. Cupid Childs:
I’ve been sitting here to long.
Best second baseman available. Shaped like a hydrant, hit like a monster with some indication that park killed power. Absolutely dominant at his position throughout the 1890s.

10. Ned Williamson:
Is it old? Am I clipped?
Outstanding third baseman and a potent hitter of the 1880s. Probably the best 3B over the span 1878-1885, and then among the best SS in the game for a couple years after that.

11. Hugh Duffy:
List the qualms you have and if they stick they will drown you in a crick.
Best centerfielder available (sorry Mike!!!). His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Roush gang. [Note this is likely to change soon. I'm involved in a very long term re-eval, but the results won't be completely relfected in my ballot for a while. that said, I'm thinking about this placement and roush's placement carefully for future ballots.]

12. Elston Howard:
I’m an island of such great complexity.
Best catcher on the Best black catcher on the Best multi-position catcher on the Best catcher who played in the NgL on the board...No. OK, he's just real good, OK? Great peak, best catcher in AL for a few years running, MVP caliber seasons, all good stuff.

13. Tommy Leach:
If my soul has a shape, well, then it is an elipse.
Career-based CF/3B candidate. As a CF, just out, as a 3B, decently well in, as a combo, he’s barely in.

14. Pete Browning:
Search for a blatant cause, blame it on menopause, or perhaps stress and strain, credit cards, lumbar pain...
Great hitter. Period.

15. Ken Boyer:
Hey you gotta pay your dues, before you pay the rent.
Excellent 3B, making his first appearance on my ballot. Could be his last since he’s about to be bypassed by several outstanding 3Bs from the late 1960s-1970s and even 1970s-1980s, including, and first up, Sal Bando then a flood of others as the positions probable Golden Age comes into full flower. Or at least full gold leaf.

Let’s drink a toast to all those who arrived alive to tell their tale in hushed tones around the fire.

Dying does not meet my expectations.
Courageous comeback. I think there’s very good reason to believe that Hiller is much better than I am crediting him with being. My current pitching system sees him as among the top dozen or so relievers ever, but I don’t trust my current pitching system for relievers, so it’s moot. I’m working on a new pitching system, but it’s a ways off. For now, Hiller’s very, very good.

Willie Horton:
Run from the pigs, the cops, the fuzz, the heat, pass me the gloves, this crime wave is never complete.
Once held the Mariners’ single-year HR record!!!! Seriously, I’ve always respected him for taking to the streets during the riots. Courageous gesture.

Don’t worry, we’re in no hurry.
Never held the Mariners’ single-year HR record….

They’re good enough for Conrad Hilton, not good enough for my eyes.

Minnie Minoso:
Check that expiration date man, it’s later than you think.
How’s he much better than Ralph Kiner? He’s Dwight Evans and that’s probably not enough for my tastes. His MiL credit and NgL credit are ultimately helpful but not case-making information. They only take him one slot above Lou Brock, and that’s not good enough.

Rube Waddell:
Cherish your memorized weakness.
My system sees his peak/prime as very good but not super duper special in light of the performances around him. Then after that it’s hit and miss with more miss than hit.

Ralph Kiner:
They’re foxy to me are they foxy to you?
Not impressed. I mean I am, but I’m not. How’s he much better than Minnie Minoso?

Dobie Moore:
The dealer with the jingly song will never meet my price reduction.
I really like Dobie Moore. The current thinking shows him as a super valuable player. But I don’t yet see enough to push him up into my electable area. I’m inclined to give him more credit during the Wreckers years than he’s getting because he truly hit the ground running in 1920. I suspect he was better than a rising talent on the Wreckers, that he had left 3B quite early in the Wreckers’ era, and that quite possibly he was quickly the team’s top player as a hard-hitting shortstop. Too bad I can’t prove it.
   17. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2187074)
Dr. C, the 1980s pop songs leave me completely befuddled, but so do your Pierce/Waddell remarks. You seem to say that if Pierce is better than Waddell it's not by much, but then you have Pierce #6 and Waddell off ballot. A certain inconsisitency there, no?
   18. Daryn Posted: September 25, 2006 at 03:48 PM (#2187077)
Then why aren't Pinson and Ryan and GVH better candidates? Or at least more than one of them among the top 21 on Daryn's ballot?

Brock, Ryan and GVH are all on my ballot. I think Pinson is worse than all three for a variety of reasons, including, of course, context. I guess that's my point -- I know Brock is just a career counting stats candidate -- I just think he should have as many votes as GVH, Ryan, Beckley, Fox and other career candidates career candidates. The Beckley haters are not going to like Brock much, but what about the 11 Beckley voters who didn't vote for Brock.
   19. OCF Posted: September 25, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2187082)
karlmagnus, why are you citing at bats as a playing time indicator for McCovey, a man who often drew 100+ walks a season? You do know that in his great 1968-69-70 peak he had 608, 623, and 638 plate appearances?
   20. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:01 PM (#2187090)
Most of the candidates this group likes walk a lot; McCovey had low PA/year outside his peak seasons. Except for HR, his counting stats are surprisingly unimpressive.
   21. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:06 PM (#2187094)
To elaborate, McCovey, like Yaz, is generally considered a long career candidate -- 22 seasons against 23. Yet McCovey had only 2211 hits versus Yaz's 3419, less than 2/3 as many. That's a HUGE difference, and reflects McCovey's poor in-season durability which as we've discussed elsewhere detracts more from his value than would short career length (his career would be much more valuable if he'd packed it into 15 seasons rather than 22.)
   22. Mark Donelson Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#2187095)
the 1980s pop songs leave me completely befuddled

Them's 1990s pop songs, friend. But I had the same disconnect on Dr. C's Pierce/Waddell comments.

There are three types of Hall of Meriters (at least in my view, and it appears to be supported by our electorate so far). Great players who played a long time, great players who played a shorter time, and very good players who played a very long time.

True, but peak voters like me and Sunnyday are not so fond of that last type. I know I personally try to draw the line at "great players," of any type.
   23. DavidFoss Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:08 PM (#2187099)
McCovey had low PA/year outside his peak seasons.

He qualified for the batting title only 8 times. Its a legitimate knock against him when comparing to inner-circle guys. He'll still be #1 by a mile on my peak-friendly ballot, though.
   24. . . . . . . Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:09 PM (#2187103)
2. Bucky Walters:
I trust you will tell me, if I make a fool of myself.
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it. That’s why he’s above Pierce for me. Am I his bestest friend?

Dr. Chaleeko, i was also a friend-of-Bucky, but some recent work my friend showed my persuaded me to drop him from my ballot this season. I'd be happy to discuss this with you in the discussion thread if you are so inclined.
   25. karlmagnus Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:10 PM (#2187104)
Daryn, Brock was nowhere near as good a hitter as Beckley, nor did he play as important a fielding position, nor did he play it as well, nor, when adjusted for season length, did he last as long. Those differences add to a huge amount, which can nowhere near be offset by Brock's relatively low value stolen bases.
   26. Mark Donelson Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:21 PM (#2187120)
1. Willie McCovey (pHOM 1986). Like Allen, another incredible offensive force for a decent number of his many years. His peak isn’t quite up to Allen’s, but it’s awfully close, and that’s enough to trump the backlog easily.

2. Rube Waddell (pHOM 1919). Love his PRAA, love his strikeouts, and the unearned runs don’t bug me that much (especially with the revelation that they’re not particularly egregious).

3. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m confident this guy was the real deal.

4. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). I’m convinced he was the class of his position at his time, and generally dominant for long enough to get my vote.

5. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

6. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

7. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

8. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least from a peak perspective.

9. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

10. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

11. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Three lost causes in a row! Not the most dominant pitcher of his era by a long shot, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

12. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

13. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me.

14. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). It’s hard to see through the AA haze, but any way I peer, he looks truly dominant.

15. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Surpassed recently by Freehan and Howard at his position, but still quite worthy.
   27. Mark Donelson Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:25 PM (#2187126)
16-20: Browning (1979), Walters (1968), Cravath (1985), Pierce (1985), Fox (1986)
21-25: J. Wynn, Gomez, Bresnahan (1973), [Faber], F. Howard, Roush
26-30: McGraw, [B. Williams], H. Smith, Redding (1975), Pesky, Oms
31-35: Trout, Boyer, Joss, Berger, [Reese], H. Wilson
36-40: [Lyons], Leach, [E. Wynn], [W. Ford], McCormick, Doyle, Minoso, Chance
41-45: J. Ryan, Elliott, Cepeda, [Lemon], Munson, Burns
46-50: Easter, Brock, Colavito, Rizzuto, Dunlap

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Pierce. Not enough peak to be among my most favoritest pitchers eligible, but after some adjustment for era (‘50s pitchers as a rule have peak trouble, and that can’t all be just because there weren’t good ones), he joins the second tier. At #19, and in my pHOM; he'll get to the ballot eventually.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. At #39.

•Boyer. Not my favorite of the eligible 3Bs—I prefer the peak-heavier Rosen and Williamson, and even McGraw. He’s midpack, and probably too far back to ever reach my pHOM. At #32.

•Horton. Not nearly enough peak, especially for a corner OF.

•Cardenal. Even less peak.

•Hiller. I was tempted, but even I require longer peaks for short relievers than this. Still, he’s my #2 relief pitcher so far, and he may creep into my top 50 before we’re through.
   28. Mark Donelson Posted: September 25, 2006 at 04:31 PM (#2187133)
I forgot the "what kind of voter am I" stuff this time, but it's all pretty self-explanatory, with all those "peak" mentions in my comments. My pHOM inductees this time were McCovey and Nellie Fox, if anyone's counting.
   29. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 25, 2006 at 05:00 PM (#2187161)

The real difference between them isn't really that great. The ballot difference between them is enough to put Waddell in the 20s or 30s. For me. What I meant to say, however, was that since the difference isn't huge, Waddell fans should feel fine about voting for Pierce, and that if you agree with me, good for me. Nothing to weird, just poorly explained.

As for the pop/rock lyrics (not Pop Rocks lyrics...), just from a favorite band cited in another thread, snatches of which seemed particularly germane to a particular candidate's situation. No rosetta stone needed, though admittedly said lyricist is known for obtuse word choice.


happy to know what you know about Bucky. Do tell. (Meet you at the discussion thread!)
   30. Jim Sp Posted: September 25, 2006 at 05:25 PM (#2187188)
1) McCoveylong career, peak is outstanding but short. Common sense puts him at the top. Figured I’d try common sense this year, not making any promises about the future. Slugger with no defensive value.
2) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
3) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
4) Dick Redding--
5) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3.
6) Minoso--I gave full ML credit for two+ years.
7) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
8) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
9) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
10) Jimmy Wynn
11) Dobie Moore--
12) KellerAdded back the war credit.
13) Elston Howard--war, segregation, stuck behind Yogi. The peak is there and the obstacles were out of his control. PHoM 1975
14) Munson
15) Bartell-- Add a little war credit too.
   31. sunnyday2 Posted: September 25, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2187197)
I'm not a "long career" voter and I will have McCovey #1 or #2...AFAIAC he is a peak candidate for the very reasons you mention (karl). He had too many low PA seasons outside the peak/prime. How many hits he had compared to Yaz is about 100th on my list of 15 variables that I look at.
   32. rawagman Posted: September 25, 2006 at 05:32 PM (#2187199)
Jim - what do you do with the rest of the consensus top 10 that you havent voted for? That would be most of the top 10, at a glance.
   33. Jim Sp Posted: September 25, 2006 at 05:53 PM (#2187225)
They are all close but not on my ballot. The difference between #15 and #38 is not much.

Pierce #29
Waddell #27.
Kiner #17
Childs #35
Beckley #38. A lot of good not great seasons.
   34. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 25, 2006 at 05:59 PM (#2187232)
Yaz definitely created more runs than McCovey, but Stretch's Batting Win Shares/162 Games is much higher. McCovey also played in the tougher park to hit. All in all, I would take McCovey over Yaz as a hitter, but it's close.
   35. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 25, 2006 at 06:00 PM (#2187235)
Murf, good luck on the Real Estate test

I appreciate that, Eric.
   36. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 25, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#2187274)
If Yaz had retired after '75 (the point where Yaz's PA are similar to McCovey):

Runs: 1331
Hits: 2413
2B: 466
3B: 48
HR: 317
RBI: 1241
BB: 1348
TB: 3926

McCovey for his career:

Runs: 1229
Hits: 2211
2B: 353
3B: 46
HR: 521
RBI: 1555
BB: 1345
TB: 4219

These numbers are not park adjusted, but McCovey looks significantly greater than Yaz.

Now, Yastrzemski is an easy future HoMer and one of my all-time favorite players, so this should not be construed as an effort to diminish his career. Yaz has it all over McCovey in durability and fielding, too. My point is relying on counter stats too heavily (or visa versa - weighing rate stats too greatly). An equal mixture of the two is the way to go, IMO.
   37. Adam Schafer Posted: September 25, 2006 at 11:06 PM (#2187458)
For the first time ever I've changed my ranking system. I still have a strong emphasis on career value, always have, always will, but I'm mixing in a stronger emphasis on peak than I previously have. Career value is still very important to me as it what most strongly fits my definition of Merit. After MANY years of having Mickey Welch at the top of my ballot, I am sad to see him move down considerably.

1. Willie McCovey - not a lot of thought to put into this one, my system loves him

2. Jake Beckley - not quite the peak, but plenty of career to offset the need for it.

3. Burleigh Grimes - Between 1918-1931 he was pretty durable. A couple bad seasons mixed in,
but all in all a dependable pitcher and I'm a career type of guy for the most part. Very similar to Beckley and just a miniscule away from him in my rankings.

4. Rube Waddell - Just enough career and a good enough peak to make it this high on the ballot

5. Bucky Walters - VERY close to Waddell. Had just enough career mixed with his peak.

6. Pete Browning - I never thought I'd see his name this high on my ballot

7. Ralph Kiner - I haven't been Ralph's best friend by any means, but this is a nice jump for him in my rankings

8. Nellie Fox - Still quite similar to Sewel IMO

9. Sam Rice - Top 10 in hits 12 of the years between 1917 and 1930, 8 times top 10 in
Batting Average.

10. George Van Haltren - Good career, several HOM worthy years

11. Edd Roush - doesn't help any that I graduated with his great nephew and worked with his great neice, but it's a fun little fact.

12. Gavy Cravath - And to think that he grabs this spot without me even giving him any minor league credit. I'd given him some before, but not this week as I redo my rankings. I'm sure he'll get it back and when he does, it should make for a huge jump on the ballot.

13. Wally Schang - Yes, I give a positional bonus

14. Lou Brock - With the career value I give, I can't say that I'm too suprised he made the top 15

15. Hugh Duffy - The real suprise player for me. He hasn't seen my ballot in a very long time, and then comes storming back onto it by cracking the top 15.

16. Orlando Cepeda

17. John McGraw

18. Mickey Welch - Very sad to see him go from #2 to this

19. Dizzy Dean

20. Bob Johnson

21. Catfish Hunter

22. Billy Pierce

23. Pie Traynor

24. Minnie Minoso - this is without giving any Negro League credit

25. Ernie Lombardi

26. Vic Willis

27. Roger Bresnahan

28. Ken Boyer

29. Charlie Keller

30. Jimmy Wynn

31. Cupid Childs

32. THurman Munson
   38. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#2187548)

Re Mickey Welch: I feel your pain, remember the high times of Leroy Matlock....
   39. Howie Menckel Posted: September 26, 2006 at 12:54 AM (#2187553)
1986 ballot, our (and my) 89th ballot.

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
OF fielding I find is a little overrated among the voters.

I had last year's electees Bill Freehan No. 11, Jose Mendez No. 15, and Joe Sewell off the ballot entirely.
Only McCovey rates a mention from me of the newcomers.

1. WILLIE MCCOVEY - Willie had a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th, and a 5th in NL slugging pct in 1963-67 - and then ramped up after that to lead the NL in 1968, 1969, AND 1970. And over .900 in OPS in all of those seasons, and over 1.000 twice. Sweet. Then the knees began to go, and only once more does he clear 500 PA in a season. Soo interesting prime/career combo - looking at full seasons, it's a prime argument, but with all those 300-495 PA seasons, he winds up with a career argument with almost 10,000 PA. And guess what - he's by far the class of the bunch under either argument.
2. RALPH KINER - His competitiveness with Kaline over his top 9 years and even with Killebrew for a long stretch as well helps keep him climb to the top slot for the first time. Peak voters - how about a 184-184-173 trifecta of OPS+s? Then 156-146-140-132 to complete a stunning prime. A 121-117-116 completes the 10-pack. Nothing else here, but his rivals mostly are racking up 101s and 91s from that point anyway, so how much of a difference is that? How many runs did he really cost his teams in the OF? Yes, you can deduct, but enough to take him off the ballot?

3. BILLY PIERCE - Slips just out of 'elect-me' this year. Pierce has few rivals in post-WW II pitching. Bob Gibson-lite, if you ask me. Pierce's leveraged relief IP appear to overcome much of the admitted lack of 'workhorsieness' in terms of IP per year. I still hope he'll move up in the rankings overall as people see how few pitchers of his era can beat him out. Keep him on your radar.
4. JAKE BECKLEY - I've noted on the Brock thread how thoroughly Beckley crushes Lou. WS is spectacularly wrong on that count, so much so that it should cause those favoring the metric to rethink it a bit, imo. Kiner finally overtook Beckley on my ballot a few yrs ago.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters.
5. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Not sure I understand why he hasn't gotten more support. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.
6. RUBE WADDELL - Bumped up 6 slots in the last 4 ballots as I continue to more impressed at further glances. Recent discussion in the Bunning and Drysdale threads made me realize that while I had good reason to toss him off more loaded ballots of earlier years, I can't do so anymore. Only 8 to 10 seasons of any note at all, never led his league in IP and only in the top 9 on three occasions - a major negative in an 8-team league. But the 2nd-best P on the ballot.
7. NELLIE FOX - His 2nd-highest slot ever. Clearly the best of an era, clearly underrated, and looking more and more unique to me. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - My HOM in-out line may well be right here. If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
9. MINNIE MINOSO - Eight OPS+s over 130 is pretty nice, and could field his position, too, but I'm disappointed to see that such negligible Negro Leagues credit is due. I thought he was a better player there than we discovered. Still, even a little boost pops him onto the ballot.
10. BOB JOHNSON - Moved back onto my ballot a few yrs ago after I saw that he out-OPS+s Minoso (who wins only via fielding bonus). Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
11. KEN BOYER - Climbed onto ballot 3 yrs ago, still hanging on. Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys.
12. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Off my ballot for a long time, then on a while, off for five years, and now back last year. Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a lot higher on this ballot.
13. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite who finally battles his way back onto the ballot. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era?
14. THURMAN MUNSON - Closest one to my ballot. Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
15. MICKEY WELCH - Bounced of late by Waddell. The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there. Some people may wish we had 20 slots; I find it a reach to find a No. 15 selection.

DOBIE MOORE - Really seems to be palatable only for a full-peak guy. Even at SS, I don't see how he can compete with a guy like Keller, for example, who is only in the 20s for me right now.
CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - Killed by the new HOF stats. Yeah, they're incomplete, but I still think they show he didn't pitch much in the 1920s, leaving him as more of a peak guy.

GAVVY CRAVATH - Have voted for him for many years, but we just have so many sluggers now. I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating.
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Our first DHer on a ballot. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
   40. sunnyday2 Posted: September 26, 2006 at 01:12 AM (#2187573)
>Edd Roush - doesn't help any that I graduated with his great neice,

Was she really that great?
   41. Adam Schafer Posted: September 26, 2006 at 02:01 AM (#2187634)
was she really that great?
LOL, she was a damn fine fellow officer
I feel your pain, remember the high times of Leroy Matlock....
I do, I feel bad leaving the other Welch supporters hanging, but I must keep my ballot consistent and fair to my new rankings. I hope the other Welch supporters hang in there.
   42. Howie Menckel Posted: September 26, 2006 at 03:08 AM (#2187700)
I thought it was funny that I unwittingly gave Welch back 6 pts just as you abandoned him (see ballots above)...
   43. yest Posted: September 26, 2006 at 04:26 AM (#2187781)
1986 ballot

McCovey and Billy Williams make my PHOM this year

1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Rube Waddell most Ks/9IP 7 times in a row tying with Vance for the record led in it 1 more time (made my personal HoM in 1917)
10. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
11. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
12. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
13. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
14. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
15. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
16. Willie McCovey here‘s the low spot for him (makes my personal HoM this year)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
18. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie (made my personal HoM in 1939)
25. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
26. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
27. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
29. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
30. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
31. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
34. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
35. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
36. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
37. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
38. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe, and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Billy Pierce not good enough long enough
Cupid Childs is in my top 100
Jimmy Wynn please read post 141 on his page
   44. Howie Menckel Posted: September 26, 2006 at 04:28 AM (#2187786)
wow, yest really does love those putouts, with Harvey Kuenn over Willie McCovey..
   45. James Newburg Posted: September 26, 2006 at 08:11 AM (#2187889)
Posting my ballot early this week.

1986 Ballot

1. Willie McCovey -
Clearly the best player this "year." [/captain obvious] Thought experiment: Would Stretch have made the Hall of Fame if he retired in 1976 after looking washed-up at the age of 38? He would have had "only" 1886 hits, 465 home runs and 1332 RBI at that point.
2. Charlie Keller - Seven MVP-level seasons of 30 Win Shares; no player on this ballot can match that (including McCovey). Keller beats the "short career" rap with over 300 career Win Shares.
3. Minnie Minoso - Very long prime with 13 seasons of at least 20 Win Shares with another at 19. I agree with whoever said (I think it was Kelly in SD) that he belongs in the bottom quartile of HOM outfielders with guys like Slaughter and Sheckard.
4. Phil Rizzuto - I'm with Marc (sunnyday2): I'm not all that concerned about overrepresenting shortstops. An outstanding 1950 season plus a strong prime lands him this high. Hey, we just elected a very similar guy in Sewell.
5. Bucky Walters - B Williams' posts on the Cincinnati defense are definitely food for though. Still, Walters managed to leverage about two-thirds of his career value (in my system) in his four best seasons.

6. Nellie Fox - Similar career shape to Marvin Williams, but peak puts Fox high on the ballot. As Bill James wrote, he was the only man to legitimately take an MVP award from Mickey Mantle during the 1950s.
7. Alejandro Oms - Very similar to guys like Minoso, Brock and Bob Johnson. The differences between them are granular at best.
8. Quincy Trouppe - The discussion about Trouppe isn't like other Negro Leaguers -- leavened with humorous anecdotes or contemporary accounts about how he could hit a baseball over the Grand Canyon -- but the guy could play. He caught for a long time and raked. What more do you need?
9. Lou Brock - His peak won't knock anyone's socks off, and his flaws are obvious (poor plate discipline, poor defense, underwhelming bat for a corner outfielder) but being in the lineup nearly every day for about a dozen years and playing around an All-Star level is Meritorious.
10. Jimmy Wynn - Underrated by the electorate. His seven best seasons stack up favorably against nearly every eligible player. Maybe the best .250 hitter in baseball history.

11. Dick Redding - I don't think I'll ever really have a good handle on his career. I dothink he's one of the top three pitchers eligible and I couldn't justify putting him behind Willis.
12. Gavy Cravath - I decided to take the leap of faith last week and accept the latest MLEs for Cravath at just about face value. Certainly a most unusual case, but his slow-footed slugging ways might not have flown in the world of "reached on error-stole second-sacrifice to third-bunt for base hit" baseball.
13. Vic Willis - Bounces around between last week's ballot and this week's prelim. Ate a lot of innings with a good degree of effectiveness. Side note: if Willis didn't pitch for the putrid Boston teams of the early 1900s, he would have won at least 275 games and flirted with 300. How much differently might week see him then?
14. Vern Stephens - His name came up in an article I wrote recently about the greatest players in California community college history (it doesn't seem to be posted online anywhere, unfortunately). Anyway, he had a couple of genuinely outstanding seasons and likely deserved to make eight AL All-Star teams in nine seasons (1943-1951).
15. Don Newcombe - Just about the last thing I thought before overhauling my system is that Don Newcombe would make my ballot due to his fairly long prime for a pitcher (eight seasons of at least 22 Win Shares).

Next 15

(A note: I "subjectively" moved the next four players up about 10 places from where they originally ranked because a) I feel that the electorate "knows something" about these guys and b) I feel more certain about their value, even though my system might say that other players are more valuable. It is purely coincidential that they are #15-19.

For me, any ranking outside of the top five or so relies at least a little bit on making a "gut call.")

16. Rube Waddell - Gets dinged on Translated Innings Pitched, though he should be back on my ballot next "year."
17. Billy Pierce - As much as I like a pitcher with about 3400 innings and a 119 ERA+, I can't do enough mental contortions to justify putting Pierce and his lack of peak on my ballot and sticking with it. Or maybe I'm just not properly evaluating post-1945 pitchers.
18. Ralph Kiner - Four great seasons, four good ones and that's it.
19. Ken Boyer - I can't really point to any glaring flaws to justify him being off my ballot. His peak falls just short, I guess.
20. Buzz Arlett

21. Luke Easter
22. George Scales
23. Burleigh Grimes
24. Bob Elliott
25. Orlando Cepeda

26. Frank Howard
27. Bob Johnson
28. Marvin Williams
29. Bus Clarkson
30. Wally Berger

Other Top 10 Returnees Off the Ballot

~35. Jake Beckley - I'll probably stop writing about him like he's history's greatest monster, but he's still not going to make a ballot any millennium soon. Low peak (no peak?) ... yada, yada, yada. You've heard it all before.
~35. Dobie Moore He has the lowest career WS total of anyone in my top 50. There's no questioning that Moore was a HOM-caliber player, but if your career isn't even 10 full seasons, you need to be playing at damn near inner-circle level to make it. That leaves a margin of error so small that you'd need an electron microscope to see it.
~40. Cupid Childs - I'm using WARP1 and WARP2 for in-season competition adjustments, which really seems to hammer players from his era. I'm agnostic on whether the level of adjustment is justified.
   46. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2006 at 11:35 AM (#2187896)
16. Willie McCovey here‘s the low spot for him (makes my personal HoM this year)

Well, I think we have a winner for the lowest consensus score this election.
   47. Rusty Priske Posted: September 26, 2006 at 12:47 PM (#2187915)
PHoM: Willie McCovey & Joe McGinnity


1. Willie McCovey (new)

Really easy. Nobody else is even close.

2. Jake Beckley (3,3,5)
3. George Van Haltren (4,4,4)

Should have been in long ago.

4. Nellie Fox (8,7,10)

One of the more baffling omissions, imo.

5. Mickey Welch (5,5,6)

Incredibly overlooked.

6. Jimmy Wynn (11,9,15)

7. Lou Brock (1,x,x)

Okay, I overranked him. That doesn't change that he is clearly an HoMer.

8. Dobie Moore (2,6,7)

9. Tommy Leach (6,10,9)

10. Edd Roush (7,12,12)

11. Quincy Trouppe (10,13,x)

12. Hugh Duffy (9,8,11)

13. Norm Cash (12,11,14)

14. Minnie Minoso (x,15,x)

15. Orlando Cepeda (x,14,13)

16-20. Childs, Rice, Boyer, Kiner, Ryan
21-25. Pierce, Mullane, Redding, Willis, Streeter
26-30. Grimes, Johnson, Strong, Gleason, Greene
   48. karlmagnus Posted: September 26, 2006 at 01:14 PM (#2187937)
Since I've discovered Welch is not "worthy" fo where I'd put him (though he will not be far off the bottom of my ballot), and my #3 ranking may actually be relevant this year, I'd like to submit an amended ballot. Sorry, talliers, but this is the first time I've done this:

1. Jake Beckley
2. Rube Waddell
3. Willie McCovey
4. Addie Joss
5. Ed Cicotte
6. Pete Browning
7. Charley Jones
8. Sam Leever
9. Ernie Lombardi
10. Wally Schang
11. Cupid Childs
12. Vern Stephens
13. Frank Howard
14. Ralph Kiner
15. Quincey Trouppe

All explanations remain as on my original ballot in 2-3 above, and everybody below 2 just moves up 1 -- I've changed nothing else. Welch will appear in 1987 in the 20s.
   49. rawagman Posted: September 26, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#2187947)
John/Joe - is it possible to amend a ballot once submitted?
   50. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2006 at 01:23 PM (#2187950)
yest, no offense, but...

Harvey friggin' Kuenn???

I know string theory suggests that in some universes it's possible that Harvey Kuenn is a more meritorious player than McCovey, but we're voting on this universe, and I find it very difficult to accept your postulate that twice leading in putouts for a SS who soon became a RF (and couldn't handle CF) is more meritorious than (perhaps) the best offensive peak in the NL of the late 1960s-1970s and 500 homers and 1300 walks. I'd evern be willing to cede you the point that your system shows McCovey off the ballot, but Kuenn?

Would you please elaborate on the basis for why Kuenn is getting your vote?
   51. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2006 at 02:15 PM (#2188010)

I see 50 posts here, but afer numerous refreshes, the site shows 49 in the navbar to the right.
   52. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2006 at 02:17 PM (#2188015)
John/Joe - is it possible to amend a ballot once submitted?

You sure can, rawagman. Until the election's close, you can change your ballot numerous times (though that would drive those who tally the results such as myself crazy :-)

Would you please elaborate on the basis for why Kuenn is getting your vote?

Since McCovey flat-out destroys Kuenn as a hitter and had a far longer career, the only way that Harvey could possibly be in the vicinity of Willie is if he were a world-class fielder to the 10th power, Since Kuenn wasn't close to being an exceptional fielder in the infield or the outfield, I don't understand the vote.

If Harvey were alive today, he would be scratching his head, too.
   53. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2006 at 02:17 PM (#2188016)
Huh. Now it says there's 50 posts, and the test post I just posted was post 51. Weird.
   54. andrew siegel Posted: September 26, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#2188017)
1)McCovey (new)--Easy number 1. Great peak, long career, good rates, loses a smidge b/c/ lots of the production was in partial seasons. All that does is drop him to about #85 All-Time.

2) Keller (1st)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). The only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

(3) Roush (4th)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except Keller and the third basemen. A star in his own time.

(4) Pierce (5th)--Fits with those we've elected. The gap between #4 and #25 is very slight.

(5) Cravath (6th)--Not quite the offensive force that Keller or Allen was, but consistently close to that level. Kiner with a longer produtive career or Charley Jones w/o the competition problems.

(6) Bob Johnson (8th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(7) Cash (10th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(8) Bridges (11th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(9) Leach (12th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM.

(10) Trouppe (13th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's.

(11) Minoso (9th)--If you give minor league credit, his offensive rate stats come down just a bit, which is something I hadn't quite factored in. That costs him 4 spots.

(12) Wynn (14th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(13) Boyer (15th)--Did it all well for just long enough. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

(14) Elliot (nr/16th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(15) Childs (nr/17th)--Welcome back. One of my favorite players. Only knock is that there were so many good SS and 3B during his era that his position dominance may have been a fluke.

The next ten are Duffy, Oms, Van Haltren, Beckley, Cepeda, Shocker, C. Jones, Kiner, Schang, and Ryan.

Kiner only had four particularly good years (but they were so good he's still in the 20's). I have had Moore in an elect-me slot before, but the most recent numbers suggest that his 7-year prime was "only" in the Kiner-Berger-Chance range; he's in the 30's.

I might be Rube Waddell's biggest enemy. On raw numbers the guy is borderline but clearly out for me, ranking way behind lots of elected contemporaries and even with or slightly ahead of guys who aren't sniffing the hall (Joss, Wilbur Cooper, Mays, Willis, etc.). When you factor in his unreliability and the special steps necessary to manage him, he's not worth the trouble. As a GM, I'd rather have had not only the HoMers and the just-misses but also guys like Hippo Vaughan and Sam Leever.

No other new guys in the consideration set.
   55. OCF Posted: September 26, 2006 at 02:46 PM (#2188046)
Vern Stephens - His name came up in an article I wrote recently about the greatest players in California community college history (it doesn't seem to be posted online anywhere, unfortunately).

I live in Long Beach so I should know this, but I realize that I don't. Which college did he play for? Was it LBCC?
   56. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2006 at 03:25 PM (#2188096)
I live in Long Beach so I should know this

Amazing! The once ultrasecretive OCF has truly opened up: first the quiz, now free and uncoerced admittances of paternity and residential geography.... ; )
   57. DavidFoss Posted: September 26, 2006 at 03:26 PM (#2188098)
I live in Long Beach so I should know this, but I realize that I don't. Which college did he play for? Was it LBCC?

I'm in a googling mood this morning.

Stephens played for LBCC in 1938. He is a 2003 inductee into their Hall of Champions. Note that he was not a first ballot inductee! The year before, they honored journeyman pitcher Greg A. Harris who was noted for pitching with both hands in the same game.
   58. Qufini Posted: September 26, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#2188114)
Adam Schafer, regarding your comments concerning Minnie Minoso, he really does deserve some Negro League credit which may impact your rankings. Minoso was good enough to play in the East-West All-Star game in 1949 and '50 at the ages of 23 and 24. That doesn't necessarily mean that he would've been playing at an All-Star level in the majors (although that's not unreasonable considering that he was an All-Star for his first four full seasons with the White Sox) as many of the best players had already been integrated into the white leagues. But it should mean that Minoso was at least good enough to earn credit for at least those two seasons.
   59. ronw Posted: September 26, 2006 at 04:25 PM (#2188170)
1986 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Willie McCovey 27.4 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 9 AS. Rate is similar to Browning, but better.

2. Dick Redding If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

3. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

4. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

5. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

6. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds like a HOMer to me.

7. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

8. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. I didn’t realize how dominant he was during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

9. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

10. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

11. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

12. Ralph Kiner 24.2 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 8 AS. That peak is hard to ignore.

13. Charlie Keller 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

14. Jimmy Wynn 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

15. Minnie Minoso 21.8 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS (including Negro Leagues). I have another logjam of outfielders.

16. Ben Taylor I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

17. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

18. Larry Doyle 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

19. Bob Elliott 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Also has appeared on my ballot before.

20. Quincy Trouppe I’m beginning to come around on him.


Missing top 10

Billy Pierce – 22.1 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 7 AS. Close, probably #21. I’ve voted for him before.

Rube Waddell – 23.8 pWS/300IP, 2 CY, 5 AS. Right behind Pierce at #22. Just not enough relative IP to his time.

Cupid Childs – 18.6 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m surprised by the low WS batting totals, compared to someone like Doyle. Still is very close to Larry, based on OWP. I have voted for him and probably will again.

Ken Boyer – 17.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough from a hitting position for me. I like Bob Elliott better.

New Notables

Willie Horton – 18.5 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 5 AS. Solid player.

Jose Cardenal – 15.4 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 3 AS. Nope.
   60. Adam Schafer Posted: September 26, 2006 at 05:02 PM (#2188216)
Adam Schafer, regarding your comments concerning Minnie Minoso, he really does deserve some Negro League credit which may impact your rankings. Minoso was good enough to play in the East-West All-Star game in 1949 and '50 at the ages of 23 and 24. That doesn't necessarily mean that he would've been playing at an All-Star level in the majors (although that's not unreasonable considering that he was an All-Star for his first four full seasons with the White Sox) as many of the best players had already been integrated into the white leagues. But it should mean that Minoso was at least good enough to earn credit for at least those two seasons.

I agree, but with the most generous credit I will give him, he would only come in between Bob Johnson and Catfish Hunter, so it would not affect the total tally whatsoever. He'll get some credit, but I'm still deciding exactly how much. It will be important on future ballots as backlog goes in, but it isn't anything that will matter towards the final count this week.
   61. OCF Posted: September 26, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2188278)
1986 Ballot. Who's Denkinger? Stuff happens: Cardinal fans should let go of this (along with Cub fans letting go of Bartman.) I do remember (from radio) Jack Clark's game-winning 3-run RH off Neidenfuer in the NLCS - that was a shocker.

Along with the extended essay on the World Series, the 1986 Baseball Abstract contains a number of real gems, including the Hall of Fame Monitor, the "Chuck Tanner" essays on cocaine use in baseball and the definition of secondary average.

1. Willie McCovey (new) An easy #1 choice in a deep-backlog year.
2. Billy Pierce (3, 4, 4, 2, 1) Lost starts (and thus IP) to being used - effectively - as a reliever. RA+ equivalent record of 218-150 with years of equivalent 18-5 (that's his outlier RA+ of 201), 20-10, 19-9, and 19-11.
3. Larry Doyle (4, 5, 5, 3, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
4. Quincy Trouppe (6, 8, 8, 6, 5) As with all Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork.
5. Orlando Cepeda (8, 9, 10, 8, 6) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
6. Jimmy Wynn (--, 11, 9, 7) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
7. George Van Haltren (9, 10, 12, 10, 8) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
8. Norm Cash (10, 11, 13, 11, 9) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
9. Tommy Bridges (18, 14, 16, 14, 12) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
10. Ralph Kiner (12, 15, 17, 15, 13) His career may not have lasted very long, but during it he played every day and he hit a LOT of home runs.
11. Bucky Walters (7, 12, 14, 12, 10) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
12. Frank Howard (13, 16, 18, 16, 14) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
13. Orestes Miñoso (14, 17, 19, 17, 16) This presumes at least a little pre-MLB value. Not the offensive value of the big HR hitters, but more mobile on defense.
14. Ken Boyer (15, 18, 20, 18, 17) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
15. Lou Brock (----, 15) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
16. Bob Elliott (16, 19, 21, 19, 18) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
17. Jake Beckley (17, 20, 22, 20, 19) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
18. Dick Redding (19, 21, 23, 21, 20)
19. Luis Aparicio (20, 22, 24, 22, 21) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
20. Hugh Duffy (21, 23, 25, 23, 22) Nothing new to say after all these years.
21. Rabbit Maranville (22, 24, 26, 24, 23) Glove and career length.
22. Mickey Vernon (23, 25, 27, 25, 24) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
23. Nellie Fox (24, 26, 28, 26, 25) I'll be a supporter of Ozzie Smith when the time comes, and Fox has some of the same virtues. Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
24. Phil Rizzuto (25, 27, 29, 27, 26) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
25. Cupid Childs (26, 28, 30, 28, 27) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
26. Edd Roush (27, 29, -, 29, 28)
27. Vern Stephens (28, 30, -, 30, 29)
28. Dobie Moore (29, ---, 30)
29. Elston Howard (-----)
30. Bob Johnson (30, ----)

James Rodney Richard: My RA+ system has him at a mere 97-81 career (not as good as his actual record) and at 20-13 for 1979 and 9-4 for 1980. He did pitch in a rather extreme pitchers park. Not exactly a good hitter, but did have 10 lifetime HR. Purely as a pitcher, doesn't quite measure up to Smokey Joe Wood or Babe Ruth.

John Hiller: I'm going to be skeptical of any relief pitcher in the HoM, although I did vote for Wilhelm. So Hiller had one utterly spectacular year for a reliever. Would you rather have that year - or would you rather have Dwight Gooden's 1985? And that one year (plus some other good career) probably isn't getting Gooden into the HoM. (Although right now all you hear about Gooden is gushing about how he could be that good that young.)
   62. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 26, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2188359)
I'll refrain from further description, attempting to respect this institution.

That's certainly the attitude many of us have taken! ; )

But in a very strong sense, a vote such as that with little or no balloting rationale is potentially destructive to the institution. Not because that vote counts (I hope six points won't seperate McCovey, Manush, or Roush from election---yest's 16-18), but rather because as a group attempting to achieve a consensus based on supposed expertise it looks awfully strange. I don't advocate for voting so that the outside world likes your ballot (seriously Leroy Matlock...) but I do think it's important to offer a little more about why those putouts (or anything else) show Kuenn as worthy. It's not hard to construct an argument that passes muster---we're pretty easy going. It's more important that we all have a sense of why Kuenn rates in case we're not seeing somethng in the guy's record. Or so that someone happening into the site doesn't say "these guys are bush league...harvey kuenn?" without reading a well-reasoned explanation of the thinking.

Remember, for better or worse, this group has sanctioned and acted upon a desire to open its doors to the world. We're sending out little notes to Freehan, Santo, Torre, Allen, and other living HOM-not-HOFers. We expect little response, but we ARE aware of the world outside our URL, and we do seek some sort of legitimacy from it, even if only in acknowledgement.

Most important, we're billing ourselves as a parallel and more englightened and disciplined institution than The Coop. We're doing that because many of that Hall's worst selections defy explanation, because some of its worst non-selections defy explanation, and because its lack of transparency offers no explanation. That's where we differ, that's why we exist, that's how we make our statement. Two putouts titles by itself is nothing without some context, puzzling at best. This is not about puzzles.

Now before I say anything else, I'm not saying my ballots are superbly worded. But I'm also not currently voting for any candidates whose cases rest on much in the way of surprise to anyone who has followed them (we all know why Browning, Howard, and Boyer are strong candidates). No one knows why Kuenn should be considered a good candidate. But no one needs a novel either. Just something that's sensible and transparent. Two putouts titles isn't telling us something constructive.

Sorry if that sounds all huffy and overdramatic...I sometimes write that way, you know. ; )
   63. yest Posted: September 26, 2006 at 07:52 PM (#2188373)
the reason I wrote the comment on putouts for him was to show I think he was a very good fielder I assumed people here would know why I like his offence
303 BA
1 batting title
most hits 4 times
most double 3 times

also as I wrote for McCovey I'm putting him in the lowest posisable spot that I feel he coud belong to and move him up as I feel more confident (not that it will make a differance with him) which is what I do for a lot of newbies to avoid shiny new toy problems (I belive I'm not alone in doing this and it's constutuional)
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 26, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2188410)
I assumed people here would know why I like his offence
303 BA
1 batting title
most hits 4 times
most double 3 times

..which is not anywhere near comparable to McCovey's offensive stats.

also as I wrote for McCovey I'm putting him in the lowest posisable spot that I feel he coud belong to and move him up as I feel more confident (not that it will make a differance with him) which is what I do for a lot of newbies to avoid shiny new toy problems (I belive I'm not alone in doing this and it's constutuional)

No one is accusing you of being unconstitutional, yest. I also understand slotting him at the point of being comfortable with him. But the conclusion that we're coming up is that you feel McCovey's at best a borderline HoMer, which nobody else here agrees with.
   65. Chris Cobb Posted: September 26, 2006 at 09:03 PM (#2188431)
While I disagree with yest's placement of McCovey relative to folks like Kell and Kuenn, I do note that he has put McCovey into his PHOM this year, which shows that he is not treating McCovey as, "at best a borderline HoMer." McCovey ranks ahead of 21 other _listed_ PHOMers on yest's ballot, and probably above a number of other PHOMers who have in fact been elected.

yest's rankings are sufficiently unusual that I take his PHOM designations as a clearer guide to his take on new candidates than are his ballot placements, which are heavily influenced by the fact that the electorate continues to decline to elect Traynor, Fox, Klein, Oliva, M. Welch, S. Rice, Browning, Beckley, Waddell, Kiner, Wilson, Duffy, Joss, Kell, and Kuenn.
   66. yest Posted: September 26, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2188478)
Chris is right McCovey is not a borderline HoMer in my my mind
I devide my pHoM in to 4 parts
1. the no brainers (Cobb, Ruth, Aaron, Mays ext.)
2. the inner circle (Greenberg, Conner, Simmons ext.)
3. the clearly in (Sewell, Kiner, Vance, McCovey ext.)
4. the borderline (Mcvey, Cuyler, Beaumont, McGraw ext.)
   67. rawagman Posted: September 26, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#2188487)
yes - you take more than enough flak for your views, but the word is etcetera, shortened to etc, not exetra, or ext.
   68. DavidFoss Posted: September 26, 2006 at 10:00 PM (#2188495)

et cetera (Two words... "et" means "and") :-)
   69. sunnyday2 Posted: September 26, 2006 at 10:45 PM (#2188534)
Man, you can learn the coolest stuff hangin' around here ;-) !
   70. Qufini Posted: September 26, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2188571)
My ballot is pretty much unchanged from two weeks ago with Willie McCovey slotting into the first spot instead of Mendez.

1. Willie McCovey, 1B (n/e) One of the things that I like about being a black ink/gray ink voter is that I don't have to mess around with McCovey's numbers for 1969- such as adjusting them downward for occuring in an expansion year as fans of WS and OPS+ have had to do. Rather, '69 stands out just as much as '68 and '70 giving McCovey a meaty three-year peak. And oh yeah, despite his lack of durability, McCovey found the time to rank 15th all-time in home runs, 48th in runs created and 54th in total bases.

2. Dick Redding, P (2) I still like Redding. He doesn't have that one outstanding season later in his career that Mendez did, but otherwise he has just as good a peak before the age of 30. And both i9's and MLEs regard him as an average pitcher after 30 which results in career bulk that's slightly better than personal favorite Billy Pierce.

3. Quincy Trouppe, C (3) It surprises me that so many people have cited the number of games that he played at other positions as a reason not to vote for Trouppe while Joe Torre- who had an even lower percentage of games caught- sailed in. Trouppe is easily the best catcher on the ballot and better than several that we've already enshrined.

4. Nellie Fox, 2B (4). Has there really not been a single HoM-worthy second baseman since Jackie Robinson? I think there has and his name is Nellie Fox.

5. Alejandro Oms, CF (5). Oms moved way up my ballot a couple of votes ago. His first ten years are as good as Kiner's and although his career isn't well documented after that, what we do know shows that he was still a league leader.

6. Billy Pierce, P (6). The perfect candidate for a prime-voter like myself. He's got the peak years I look for from '53-'58 and just enough career bulk to pass 200 wins.

7. Lou Brock, LF (7). I knew that the support for Brock wouldn't be great, but I'm surprised it's as low as this. I'm not convinced that he was as good as Oms, but he still looks slightly better than Minoso.

8. Burleigh Grimes, P (8). Another big mover a couple of elections back. Grimes has the second-best career value of any pitcher on the ballot and he's got the peak that Mickey Welch lacks.

9. Minnie Minoso, LF (9). An All-Star from the moment he stepped into the majors. He may not have had the one big year that made him the best player in the game, but he was such a steady customer that he was always close.

10. Don Newcombe, P (10). Glad to see that some of you are coming around on a guy like Newcombe, a great pitcher with an odd career because of integration and the Korean War.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). I like the combination of peak and career better than the other first basemen who seem to be either peak-only (Chance) or career-only (Beckley) candidates.

12. Rube Waddell, P (12). A dominant pitcher for a solid ten seasons.

13. Luis Aparicio, SS (13). We've only elected one shortstop from 1958 -when Pee Wee Reese retired- until now and that was Ernie Banks. Middle infielders of the '50s and '60s are being woefully shortchanged. Aparicio played great defense, walked more than people give him credit for (his career OBP is 50 points higher than his AVG) and ran the bases well. In other words, he did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than the rest.

14. Hugh Duffy, CF (14). More than just the Triple Crown of 1894, Duffy was scoring black ink as early as 1890 and as late as 1897. He was one of the best players on one of the best teams of the era.

15. Ken Boyer, 3B (15). Boyer edges out Traynor as the best third baseman available.

16-20: Ernie Lombardi, Hilton Smith, Dobie Moore, Jake Beckley, Pie Traynor
21-25: Dick Lundy, Pete Browning, Ralph Kiner, Bill Monroe, Mickey Welch

Top Ten Returnees:

Ralph Kiner: The best corner outfielder not on my ballot, I have Kiner 23rd overall.
Cupid Childs: With the exception of Nellie Fox, I don't see a lot to distinguish any of the top candidates at 2B, including Childs.
Dobie Moore: I have him 18th. I prefer him to Joe Sewell. Moore will likely be on my ballot after two more elections.
   71. Sean Gilman Posted: September 26, 2006 at 11:44 PM (#2188581)

1. Willie McCovey (-)--Browning’s equivalent in peak (WARP1 actually appears to prefer Browning) but a significantly longer career.

2. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Cupid Childs (3)--I don’t understand how he fell through the cracks, maybe things will turn around in the upcoming backlog years, but with the growing spectre of timelining, I doubt it. (1938)

5. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

6. Minnie Minoso (5)--Comparison with Clemente showed I’d been underrating his nice balance of career and peak in favor of more one-sided candidates. (1979)

7. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. Edd Roush (8)--Another beneficiary of the Clemente Comparison. A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s.

9. Ken Boyer (9)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

10. Hugh Duffy (11)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

11. George Van Haltren (12)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

12. Carl Mays (14) (1968)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit.

(Max Carey)

13. Alejandro Oms (15)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder.

(Richie Ashburn)
(Sam Thompson)

14. Ralph Kiner (16)--Gotta love the peak.

(Bobby Doerr)
(Joe Medwick)

15. Jimmy Wynn (18)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)
16. Frank Howard (19)
(Joe Gordon)
17. Nellie Fox (17)
18. Quincy Trouppe (20)
(Red Faber)
19. Bob Elliott (21)
(Red Ruffing)
20. Vada Pinson (22)
21. Bucky Walters (23)
22. Wally Berger (24)
(Ted Lyons)
23. Dick Redding (25)
24. Ed Williamson (26)
25. Dobie Moore (27)
26. Norm Cash (28)
27. Orlando Cepeda (29)
(Bob Lemon)
28. Billy Pierce (30)
29. Vern Stephens(31)
30. Roger Bresnahan (32)
31. Lou Brock (33)
32. Dave Bancroft (34)
33. Jimmy Ryan (35)
34. Charlie Keller (36)
35. Tony Lazzeri (37)
36. Phil Rizzuto (38)
37. Rube Wadddell (39)
(Rube Foster)
38. Jake Beckley (40)
39. Bobby Veach (41)
40. Dizzy Dean (42)
   72. rawagman Posted: September 27, 2006 at 07:50 AM (#2188984)

et cetera (Two words... "et" means "and") :-)

$%*$%*%^ spacebar!
   73. favre Posted: September 27, 2006 at 12:57 PM (#2189041)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Willie McCovey
2. Charley Jones

McCovey posted 500 PA in only nine of his major-league twenty-two seasons (he actually posted 495 PA in one of those nine)—but his average OPS+ in those nine seasons is 167, which makes him an easy #1 pick.

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his age 26-30 years. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2, his time in the AA, or the fact that he was born in North Carolina, which may have prevented him from entering baseball at an earlier age (he debuted at age 26 in 1876). I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part.

3. Rube Waddell
4. Jake Beckley

Waddell has eight seasons with an ERA+ above 120, with a top four seasons of 179, 179, 165, and 153--and he was striking out between seven and eight guys per nine as he was posting those Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. It’s often been mentioned that Beckley has thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 122. A quick and dirty check reveals that only twenty-five other major league players until 1985 have posted thirteen seasons with an OPS+ above 120. I’ll spare you the list, but it’s some pretty rarified air: Crawford, Waner, and Wheat are by far the worst players of that group. I am by no means arguing that Beckley somehow belongs in that inner-circle; I just find it an interesting fact.

5. Dobie Moore
6. Billy Pierce

I’ve dropped Moore some as Chris’ new numbers have sunk in, but I still think he’s the best shortstop on the ballot, and (Ernie Banks notwithstanding) has been for a while. He is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see why we put Sewell ahead.

We are very short on pitchers from 1941-55. Pierce is the best pitcher left from the 1950s, averaging 242 IP with an ERA+ of 138 between 1951-58. That’s a great prime for a pitcher, though he did play for a lot of teams with excellent defenses.

7. Ralph Kiner
8. Jimmy Wynn
9. Orestes Minoso

Kiner won OPS+ titles in ’47, ’49, and ’51—all when there was a guy in the league named Musial, playing in his prime. Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care.

Minoso is similar to Beckley, in some respects; very good defense, not a particularly high peak but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. It doesn’t make much sense to me to have a lot of distance between the two; I’m happy to see the electorate is beginning to agree.

10. Vic Willis
11. Nellie Fox

We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

So far we only have five infielders from the 1950s, with no one new on deck. (Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). That is simply too few for the decade. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

12. Bob Elliott
13. Ken Boyer

Boyer and Elliott make it back onto my ballot after the early 80s third basemen glut. It’s very hard for me to separate the two in my head; Bob was a little better hitter, Ken a little better at defense, but WS has them with almost identical career values. Elliott was clearly the best 3B of his time, while Boyer was not, so he gets a slight edge. Boyer would also give us another 1950s infielder.

14. Bucky Walters
15. Roger Bresnahan

Again, we’re short on pitchers from 1941-1955, particularly during the war years. While I recognize that his 1939-42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, I think there are other elements in his favor. He was a terrific hitter, and also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old.

There’s a good debate in the ballot discussion thread about the appropriateness of balancing eras and positions. Obviously I think it’s a good idea. I would not vote for somebody whom I felt did not deserve it just to fill a “slot,” but it does make me look more closely at players, and I do use it as a tiebreaker. And there some gaps that just seem too large—for example, the twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in the other five years, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. He also would help fill a small gap we have in CF in the early oughts, 1901-5.

16-20: Gavvy Cravath, Dizzy Trout, Cupid Childs, Frank Howard, Wally Schang

Last year none of the three electees appeared on my ballot (and I STILL wasn’t in the bottom ten consensus scores) This year, Cupid Childs is the only player from last year’s top ten who didn’t make it—and he’s #18 on my ballot right now. I like Fox more, and we have twice as many infielders from the 1890s than we do from the 1950s, but Cupid should make it back on my ballot in a few years.
   74. DL from MN Posted: September 27, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#2189135)
1) Willie McCovey - not a stretch
2) Bob Johnson - 13 years above 125 OPS+ & 138 career OPS+, Minoso had 11 above 110 and 130 career. Both players have strong arguments for a season or two of PCL/NGL credit and very good reputations as fielders. Bob Johnson is Minoso PLUS.
3) Billy Pierce - best pitching career available, equivalent to contemporaries we have enshrined (Ford, Drysdale, Bunning)
4) Norm Cash - Big LH bat gets him in the mix, good glove and consistent production gets him up this high
5) Jake Beckley - Very good for a very long time is more deserving than a player who burns bright for a year or two. There's more area under the curve.
6) Tommy Bridges - Looks a lot like Billy Pierce with a little less bulk, very few war era pitchers enshrined
7) Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitter for a catcher, athletic enough to be an average glove, star of the Mexican League, looks good versus contemporaries Ferrell and Cooper
8) Rube Waddell - moves up after I give him credit for his 27 win season in the Western League
9) Dutch Leonard - Long career pitcher from war era
10) Virgil Trucks - I'm only giving him 1.5 seasons of war credit. His peak looks as good as Walters
11) Orlando Cepeda - bat like Cash, perhaps a bit better, but not as good in the field
12) Minnie Minoso - see Bob Johnson comment
13) Ken Boyer - Peak better than Brooks, prime equivalent to Brooks, just a little less career
14) Jim Wynn - Good hitting for a CF but not a gold glove fielder
15) Dave Bancroft - Terrific fielder, good enough bat especially for era

now the sluggers
16) Ralph Kiner
17) Gavy Cravath
18) Frank Howard
19) Charlie Keller
20) Bob Elliott
21) Luke Easter
Elliot gets a 3B bonus to get in that group but as for the rest I can't find a dime's worth of difference
22-30) Shocker, Quinn, Jimmy Ryan, Edd Roush, Oms, Dobie Moore, Dick Redding, Childs, Hilton Smith
   75. Juan V Posted: September 27, 2006 at 05:21 PM (#2189283)
1985 Ballot

1) WILLIE MCCOVEY: Peak? Yes. Career? Yes. #1? Yes.

2) RALPH KINER: During my short time here, only Aaron, Robinson and McCovey have scored better on offensive prime.

3) CUPID CHILDS: New WARPs like him a lot. If you want more second basemen in the Hall of Merit, here´s a good one.

4) ALEJANDRO OMS: A hidden gem, nice balance of career and prime

5) QUINCY TROUPPE: Joe Torre-light. I like to have at least one catcher on my ballot, and it looks like he will satisfy this requirement for a while.

6) GAVVY CRAVATH: Yeah, there might be an OF glut in the HOM, but I can´t help but be impressed by him.

7) KEN BOYER: Newest WARPs hurt him a bit. Still similar to Brooks Robinson

8) BILLY PIERCE: Best pitcher by career (Mendez´s prime and non-pitching career puts him ahead). And a respectable prime.

9) CANNONBALL DICK REDDING: Similar to Pierce.

10) JIMMY RYAN: Boosted by new WARPs. Better than Van Haltren or Duffy, IMO.

11) BOB JOHNSON: How did he get so far behind Miñoso?

12) JIMMY WYNN: Separated from Ryan, still looks strong in the CF backlog

13) JIM FREGOSI: A poorer Sewell/Childs. May become my teddy bear.

14) RUBE WADDELL: Nice peak, not that nice career.

(14.5: Bill Freehan)

15) DOBIE MOORE: Good, but his peak is somewhat overrated IMO. How is he that much better than Fregosi?

Off ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically.

16-22 (The waiting list): Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan, Pete Browning, Charlie Keller, Chuck Klein, Minnie Miñoso, George Van Haltren
23-29: Dave Bancroft, Larry Doyle, Bob Elliott, Johnny Pesky, Edd Roush, George Scales, Pie Traynor
30-37: Orlando Cepeda, Bus Clarkson, Hugh Duffy, Nellie Fox, Frank Howard, John McGraw, Thurman Munson, Marvin Williams
38-45: Dick Bartell, Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Dizzy Dean, Luke Easter, Burleigh Grimes, Artie Wilson, Wilbur Wood

Some Disclosures.

Minnie Miñoso: I used to have him around 30. Revising his MLEs gave him a good career argument, putting him in the lower reaches of my ballot (as exposed in the prelim). However, noticing that a lot of his MLE years he hangs around an OPS+ of 100, which doesn´t scream "send me to the majors!" for an outfielder. So, I reached a compromise between both positions, with him ending up on the waiting list.

Nellie Fox: I´m not really impressed by his bat. I mean, how is he that much different from, say, Dave Bancroft?

Jake Beckley: My 16th man. At the end, I choose Moore´s peak over his career.

Among the newbies, only McCovey makes my consideration set, and he´s up there at #1.
   76. TomH Posted: September 27, 2006 at 06:13 PM (#2189329)
1986 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP or OPS+ adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Willie McCovey {new}
2- Billy Pierce (2) [4]
Similar to Bucky Walters, but with bonus value out of the bullpen. Hey, I could go 2-for-2 this week! Pierce the darkness, elect Billy!
3- Jake Beckley (3) [12]
Very fine career, understated by Win Shares.
4- John McGraw (4) [39]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders. Big hit on my consensus score.
5- Ken Boyer (5) [9]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader. Teensy minor league credit.
6- Cupid Childs (7) [8]
Consistently the best at his position, which not many on this ballot can say.
7- Bucky Walters (6) [20]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
8- George Van Haltren (8) [22]
Quite a career; 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
9- Bob Johnson (10) [24]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
10- Minnie Minoso (11) [7]
Very similar to Bob Johnson.
11- Frank Chance (12) [64]
A great player on great teams.
12- Ralph Kiner (13) [6]
Power prime!
13- Charlie Keller (14) [17]
King Kong!
14- Dick Redding (15) [13]
15- Jimmy Wynn (off) [14]
Toy Cannonball!

Rube moves up this ballot to #16. Dobie Moore is in the top 30; which, considering I’m more of a career voter, is a high complement. But I’d rather take Bill Monroe.

Others begging for ballot space: R Bresnahan, T Munson, D DiMaggio
   77. Rick A. Posted: September 28, 2006 at 01:51 AM (#2189879)
Willie McCovey
Charlie Keller Moves up alot, since I gave him minor league credit this year.

1986 Ballot
1. Willie McCovey - Elected PHOM in 1986.
2. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
7. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
9. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
10. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
11. Edd Roush –Elected PHOM in 1975.
12. Ralph Kiner – Incredible peak. Elected PHOM in 1971.
13. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
14. Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.
15. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.

Required Disclosures
Minoso and Waddell Just miss my ballot.
Boyer Mid 30's
Pierce As I stated last time, I just don't see it. Newcombe is a better candidate in my opinion.

Off the ballot
16-20 Howard,Wynn,,Keller,Bresnahan,Minoso
21-25 Cravath,Newcombe,Waddell,Monroe,Mays
26-30 Fox,Easter,Scales,Johnson,Elliott
31-35 FHoward,WCooper,Trouppe,MWilliams,AWilson
36-40 Doyle,FJones,Boyer,Clarkson,McGraw
41-45 Munson,Leach,HWilson,Stephens,Matlock
46-50 Rizzuto,Cepeda,Poles,HSmith,Tiernan
51-55 Traynor,Winters,Rosen,Bond,Schang
56-60 ACooper,Van Haltren,Ryan,DiMaggio,Pinson
   78. Rick A. Posted: September 28, 2006 at 01:55 AM (#2189889)
Not enough peak to be among my most favoritest pitchers eligible, but after some adjustment for era (‘50s pitchers as a rule have peak trouble, and that can’t all be just because there weren’t good ones),


If you're looking for a 1950's pitcher with a peak, how about Newcombe? I don't see him in your top 50. With military credit and maybe minor league credit, he has a very nice peak.
   79. Rob_Wood Posted: September 28, 2006 at 05:40 AM (#2190171)
1986 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Willie McCovey - by far the best on the ballot
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. Cupid Childs - dominating second baseman during the 1890s
4. George Van Haltren - another deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
5. Ralph Kiner - great peak with homers and walks
6. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
8. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
10. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
13. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
14. Luis Aparicio - my career value perspective shows here
15. Minnie Minoso - very good combo of peak and career
16-20. Traynor, Klein, Pierce, Keller, Charley Jones

Not voting for Waddell (I like him, but have him around 30th);
no other newbie even merits a mention.
   80. sunnyday2 Posted: September 28, 2006 at 12:45 PM (#2190245)

Second of a series of backlog years. Elect 2 with only Willie McCovey a newbie of HoM quality. So one more backlogger will join the 3 from last year and possibly as many as 3 next year. Hope these next backlog HoMers will include the 3 (of 4) leading candidates who are in my PHoM—Waddell, Kiner, Minoso, in that order. We shall see.

1. Dobie Moore (1-1-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

2. Willie McCovey (new, PHoM 1986)—doh.

3. Rube Waddell (2-3-4, PHoM 1932)—turns out those UER are within normal range for the time

4. Edd Roush (3-7-8, PHoM 1976)—and I’m also gravitating to a more complete player like Roush over the more one-dimensional player like Kiner, but also remember that Roush’ peak of 38-33-30 makes absolutely no apologies to Kiner’s 37-35-30

5. Ralph Kiner (6-2-3, PHoM 1964)—great hitter, and not just SA but OBP too

6. Pete Browning (5-8-10, PHoM 1961)--this is after an AA discount

7. Larry Doyle (7-6-7, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush

8. Charley Jones (9-12-9, PHoM 1921)—trying to abandon Charley for years, just can’t do it

9. Addie Joss (10-13-12, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available, another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

10. Charlie Keller (11-22-19, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

11. Nellie Fox (12-9-13, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever

12. Dick Redding (13-33-30, PHoM 1971)—big gainer in recent re-eval

(12a. Red Faber [28a-57a-57a, PHoM 1986]—completes a leap from the near-oblivion of 60th place and replaces Cicotte as my top-rated non-PHoM pitcher; he was #12 on my ballot when elected in 1939, though)

13. Orlando Cepeda (17-15-17)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath, this week he moves to the head of that trio

(13b. Stan Hack [16a-13a-17a]—lurking)

(13c. Richie Ashburn [15a-26a-31a]—ditto)

14. Eddie Cicotte (13-14-49)— with no death credit!

15. Phil Rizzuto (18-17-21)—the token glove man, first time on my ballot

Dropped Out

16. Frank Howard (14-15-14)


17. Elston Howard (20-18-23)
18. Gavvy Cravath (16-42-46)
(18a. Bobby Doerr [20a-13b-18a]
19. Minnie Minoso (19-16-18, PHoM 1970)
(19b. Jim Bunning [20b-29a-27a])

Also Pretty Good

20. Ed Williamson (22-19-25, PHoM 1924)
21. Norm Cash (21-24-24)
22. Hilton Smith (24-25-22)
23. Ken Boyer (23-30-29)
(23b. Joe Sewell [25b-23-28])
24. Marvin Williams 27-x-x)
25. Luke Easter (25-x-x)
(25a. Willie Keeler [25a-47a-48a])
26. Alejandro Oms (28-31-34)
27. Bucky Walters (30-53-53)
28. Don Newcombe 31-x-x)
29. Rocky Colavito (29-73-x)
(29a. Wes Ferrell [28b-46a-50a])
30. Hugh Duffy (32-29-26)

31. Cupid Childs (35-40-40, PHoM 1925)
32. Vern Stephens (36-27-31)
33. Dizzy Dean (33-20-27)
34. Lou Brock (34-new)
35. Tony Oliva (37-48-49)
36. Billy Pierce (40-56-x)
37. Vic Willis (41-34-35, PHoM 1977)
38. Lefty Gomez (38-57-57)
39. Chuck Klein (39-36-36)
40. Dick Lundy (44-26-32)

41. Jim Wynn (45-35-42)
42. Jake Beckley (46-72-x)
43. Bus Clarkson (42-92-x)
44. Quincy Trouppe (48-28-43)
45. Bobby Estalella (47-32-33-)
46. Tommy Bond (43-21-20, PHoM 1929)
47. Hack Wilson (49-38-38)
(47a. Early Wynn [49a-60a-60a)
48. Pie Traynor (50-44-44)
49. Wally Berger (52-39-39)
50. Bob Johnson (53-52-52)

51. Roger Bresnahan (54-45-45)
52. Bill Monroe (55-55-55)
53. Dave Bancroft (56-43-47)
54. Al Rosen (57-37-37)
55. Dolf Luque (58-84-x)
(56a. Biz Mackey [50a-45a-45a])
(56b. Jimmy Sheckard [59a-52a-52a])--would like to be able to vote for most of these guys all the way down to about here, the rest not so much

They Also Ran

57. Mike Tiernan (51-61-x)
58. George Scales (59-HM-x)
59. Urban Shocker (60-94-x)
60. Joe Tinker (61-81-x)

61. Bob Elliott (64-51-51)
62. Johnny Evers (62-85-x)
63. Frank Chance (63-50-50)
64. Jim McCormick (65-41-41)
65. Fred Dunlap (66-64-x)
66. Ben Taylor (67-59-59)
67. Burleigh Grimes (68-63-x)
(67a. Joe Kelley [68a-82a-x])
68. Andy Cooper (71-67-x)
69. Tommy Bridges (72-77-x)
(69a. Cool Papa Bell [72a-x-x])
70. Luis Aparicio (69-80-new)

71. Pancho Coimbre (74-74-x)
72. Mickey Welch (70-47-48)
73. Tony Mullane (73-62-x)
74. John McGraw (77-66-x)
(74a. Ezra Sutton [77a-76a-x])
75. Thurman Munson (78-new)
76. Bill Byrd (79-68-x)
77. Tommy Leach (80-58-58)
78. Carl Mays (75-65-x)
79. Jim Fregosi (76-75-x)
80. Vada Pinson (83-70-x)

81. Artie Wilson (81-69-x)
82. Bobby Veach (82-60-60)
83. Ernie Lombardi (84-54-54)
84. George Van Haltren (85-76-x)
85. John Clapp (86-83-x)
(85a. Pete Hill [86a-89a-x])
86. George Burns (89-78-x-x)
87. Silver King (87-86-x)
88. Tony Lazzeri (99-100-x)
89. Red Schoendienst (91-HM-x)
90. Jim Whitney (90-HM-x)

91. Gil Hodges (92-96-x)
92. Silvio Garcia (95-HM-x)
93. Kiki Cuyler (93-82-x)
94. Denny Lyons (94-HM-x)
95. Rabbit Maranville (96-91-x)
96. Sol White (97-HM-x)
97. Wilbur Cooper (98-87-x)
98. Jake Fournier (99-HM-x)
99. Johnny Pesky (100-97-x)
100. Jimmy Ryan (HM-x-x)
   81. TomH Posted: September 28, 2006 at 02:49 PM (#2190364)
re: Harvey Kuenn & the legitimacy of the HoM --

I don't support Kuenn as a candidate. At all. But
a) it's far from completely silly,
b) why does one vote for Kuenn in any way disparage the HoM's efforts?

Yes, I agree that more explanation should be given than "led twice in putouts". Which was done, and if more is needed, I offer this: the man made 8 straight all-star teams. He was mentioned in the MVP voting 8 consecutive seasons. He was playing mostly shortstop and hitting over .300, with an OPS+ of around 112. He led the league in runs created in 1959. He played his prime years in Detroit, a place not known to be a great hitter's park.

The HoF honored Jack Chesbro and ignored Bill Dahlen. If the HoMerit comes up with a funny-looking vote or two buried in our tallies on occasion, big whoop. LOTS of people are going to think we do LOTS of queer things. Let me pick on KJOK for a minute (since I'm probably the voter who most closely matches him, we're kissin cousins, so no hard feelings). He's got 3 men high on his ballot - McGraw, Chance, and Bresnahan - who drove in fewer than 1600 runs IN THEIR CAREERS COMBINED. And he might place Rafael (1800 RBI) Palmeiro behind all three of them. Ya think some people wouldn't laugh at that? Okay, let em laugh. They'll scoff at our (eventual?) election of Jake Beckley while we might snub Lou Brock and Tony Perez. It's okay, we can defend what we've done, and defend it well.

Not that we ought to tacitly encourage foolish voting. If/when I support a guy you think is grossly unworthy, go ahead and slam me hard, make me defend it.

To yest, I would say that
1. Kuenn only played shortstop for 5 years
2. The reason he led twice in putouts is he played 155 games, and most of the other AL SS did not in those years; he really wasn't a good-fielding shortstop in many people's (including my) assessment. Which is why he moved to the OF by age 28.
   82. Al Peterson Posted: September 28, 2006 at 03:20 PM (#2190397)
1986 ballot. Balloting system tries to mix peak, prime, and career. Positional balance as well so you have players all over the diamond, all eras.

1. Willie McCovey (-). Once Orlando Cepeda was out of the way he put together a nice run of excellent hitting – best in the league quality 1968-70. Running against the backlog makes available a top spot beginning for Stretch.

2. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years.

3. Rube Waddell (2). They don’t make ‘em like this anymore. Hard thrower, dominated strikeout categories wherever he went. Rube was the traveling circus coming to town – people came to see him pitch. Should get some minor league credit in his early career. Baseball was in the transition from one league to the NL/AL setup and he was bouncing around leagues for awhile but pitching effectively.

4. Billy Pierce (3). Consistently good, sometimes a little better than that. I buy into the leverage argument for him, seemed to come into tight relief spots the way an ace should. The argument of Pierce vs. Waddell is easy. You can ballot both so go on and do it!

5. Norm Cash (4). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

6. Tommy Leach (6). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

7. Ken Boyer (8). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. The minor league credit argument is interesting since he was a pitcher part of the time down on the farm.

8. Tony Mullane (9). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted.

9. Dobie Moore (10). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

10. Roger Bresnahan (11). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

11. Cupid Childs (12). Get in the wayback machine and going to the 19th century for this second sacker. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

12. Jimmy Wynn (13). There’s a peak there to consider – just didn’t put it all in one straight stretch. The Toy Cannon made many a Houston fan happy during the 60s and 70s.

13. Pete Browning (14). Every time I want to dismiss him due to poor fielding, discount the AA, etc. I still can’t help but consider the hitting quality. Man had few peers with the stick in his hand.

14. Bob Johnson (16). Welcome back Indian Bob to the party.

His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

15. Bucky Walters (18). We’ve got a case of the peaks with this man. Another multidimensional pitcher in the mold of a Wes Ferrell, just not as good.

16-20: Ryan, Oms, Minoso, Mays, Poles
21-25: Bancroft, Byrd, C. Jones, Keller, Duffy
26-30: Easter, Welch, Shocker, Elliott, Evers
31-35: Roush, Willis, Rizzuto, Luque, Schang
36-40: Ben Taylor, Munson, Stephens, Grimes, Brock
41-45: Bridges, Beckley, Trouppe, Bartell, Cicotte
46-50: Cross, Traynor, Trout, Quinn, F. Jones

Top 10 Returnees: Beckley(#42), Minoso(#18), Kiner(#60), Fox (#way up there). Minoso gets tied to Bob Johnson to me, see Indian Bob slightly better. Both are credible candidates. Kiner gets killed by his fielding prowess (or lack thereof) and just needing another strong year or so. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. Played forever, wasn’t elite but not Candy LaChance as some folks seem to envision. Fox is just someone I don’t get. I’d rather elect 100 other guys but I’m possibly wrong.

New guys: Yeah, we have McCovey and everyone else. Everyone else is OK but not going in any time soon. Hiller and Horton – good week for them to come up as the Tigers return to their winning ways.
   83. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 28, 2006 at 04:11 PM (#2190448)
Not that we ought to tacitly encourage foolish voting. If/when I support a guy you think is grossly unworthy, go ahead and slam me hard, make me defend it.

Right, it's the not that Kuenn is on the ballot (well it might be, but that's not the issue I'm after), the issue is that he's on there, with little explanation, and ahead of the consensus #1 choice. Again his appearance isn't the issue, his placement of McCovey isn't the issue, but the combo of them with no explanation is.
   84. AJMcCringleberry Posted: September 28, 2006 at 05:58 PM (#2190520)
1. Willie McCovey - Great peak, long career. Easy #1.

2. Bucky Walters - Not as good a peak as Mendez, but more career value.

3. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

4. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

5. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

6. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

7. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

8. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

9. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

10. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

11. Minnie Minoso - Very good hitter, over 350 win shares after adding his negro league career.

12. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

13. Billy Pierce - Long career, very good peak. Led league in CG 3 straight years, top 5 in 5 of 6 years. Top 5 in shutouts 5 of 6 years

14. Vada Pinson - Good hitting centerfielder for a long time. Top 100 for career in numerous stats including XBH, TB, RC, R, and hits.

15. Norm Cash - 139 career OPS+, monster season in 1961. Also a good fielder.

16. Hugh Duffy
17. Edd Roush
18. Bob Elliott
19. Tommy Leach
20. Harry Hooper
21. George Van Haltren
22. Alejandro Oms
23. Buzz Arlett
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Gil Hodges
26. Burleigh Grimes
27. Willie Davis
28. Fielder Jones
29. Dick Redding
30. Pie Traynor
31. Ralph Kiner - Nice peak, but not much career value.
32. Cupid Childs - See Kiner.
33. Wally Berger
34. Vern Stephens
35. Dick Bartell

Waddell - Not enough career value
Moore - Great peak, but that was it.
   85. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: September 28, 2006 at 07:18 PM (#2190576)
1986 ballot

McCovey and Rube Waddell make my PHOM with Torre, E. Howard, and Dean next on the waiting list.

1. Willie McCovey (x, PHOM) – Very nice peak, I would say that it is even better than Keller and I am quite the fan of Keller. Durability concerns limit his career value somewhat, keeping him out of the inner circle, but he still has some nice career numbers.

2. Charlie Keller (1, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

3. Cupid Childs (3, PHOM) – I am pretty sure that Childs has been in my top five every year since sometime in the 1940’s. He had a great peak and decent career length for a MIer of his era. Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

4. Hugh Duffy (4, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

5. Dick Redding (5, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

6. Ralph Kiner (6¸ PHOM) – Seven straight HR titles is impressive no matter what the context. Kiner has a great peak, however I prefer Keller’s combination of OBP and decent defense to Kiner’s power.

7. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he was more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM.

8. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

9. Jimmy Wynn (10, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 25. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

10. Pete Browning (9, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me.

11. Quincey Trouppe (10, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

12. Rube Waddell (12) – I have him about even with Mendez but a little ahead based partly on a 15 point advantage in career ERA+ for Rube. However, he is the best player ever to leave an MLB game in order to chase a fire truck in all of baseball history.

13. Elston Howard (13) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

14. Dizzy Dean (11) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

15. Ken Boyer (16) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very, very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#29) or Rosen (#17), but he was better.

16-20 Cravath, Rosen, Oms, GVH, Pierce
21-25 Bresnahan, Fox, Berger, F. Howard, Doyle
26-30 McGraw, Willis, Shocker, Elliot, Newcombe
31-35 Roush, Rizzuto, Cepeda, Burns, Minoso
36-40 Chance, Munson, Veach, Lundy, Wilson
41-45 Bancroft, R.Thomas, Monroe, Leach, Ryan
46-50 Klein, C. Jones, Stephens, Johnson, Cicotte

Required Disclosures:
Minoso – Very good player, but I just don’t see him as that different from a host of other corner outfield candidates like George Burns, Bobby Veach, and even Bob Johnson. If his NeL and MiL numbers were better he would have my support.
Pierce – Currently at #20, he is a decent candidate to make my PHOM before all is said and done.
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#22) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.
Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?


I didn’t see either Cardenal or Horton as serious HOM candidates after a first glance.
   86. Mark Donelson Posted: September 28, 2006 at 08:50 PM (#2190665)
If you're looking for a 1950's pitcher with a peak, how about Newcombe? I don't see him in your top 50. With military credit and maybe minor league credit, he has a very nice peak.

Been trying to figure out Newk for a while...even with extra credit (though I'm pretty stingy with MiL credit), I can't get his peak to be peaky enough for me, even with my '50s boost. But I need to re-examine a bunch of these guys, including Whitey Ford himself. I'm planning a general overhaul of my midcentury pitcher analysis shortly. Newk will most definitely be included.
   87. Jeff M Posted: September 28, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#2190669)
1986 Ballot

1. McCovey, Willie – Made the most of his “old player” skills, even when he was young. Surprised he only made six All-Star teams. One of the least impressive of the candidates who I anticipated would be automatic. Barely – and I mean just barely – nudges out Oms for the #1 spot on my ballot.

2. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

3. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

4. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project.

5. Minoso, Minnie – Not impressed with his Negro League stats, but they give him a boost on certain career measures. I believe he was one of the top outfielders in the majors during his career, but I’m not 100% convinced it was quite HoM level.

6. Cravath, Gavvy – Still wary about what I’ve done with him.

7. Waddell, Rube – RSI sheds some light on why his win totals aren’t what they could be. I can’t really read Joe Dimino’s chart on the pitching thread, but based on the comments, it appears Waddell comes out fine there too. I put him slightly ahead of Pierce because I think he outshone his peers a tad more.

8. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position, I’ve given him the higher spot.

9. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average hitter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

10. Pierce, Billy – I think he is just on the wrong side of the HoM line, but I think he’s close enough to be proud of.

11. Boyer, Ken – A heck of a lot better than I thought.

12. Dean, Dizzy - Hasn’t made the ballot in awhile, but with my re-evaluation of the Negro Leaguers at the top of the ballot, I realized I had Moore about 10 spots too high, and I had no business putting Bill Wright on the ballot. So a few oldies slide back in.

13. McGraw, John – Love the OBP.

14. Joss, Addie – No “dead credit.” His ballot spot is based on what he actually did while alive.

15. Cuyler, Kiki – Not sure if he’s ever been on my ballot, but I guess he’s been lingering close enough to temporarily make an appearance. Perhaps I should have Nellie Fox here.

Required Disclosure(s):

Moore, Dobie – Reviewed his case, and surprisingly, he actually dropped about 10 spots. He’s electable only on his peak I guess. I wouldn't say I'm a career voter...more of a blend. Besides, the peak for Negro Leaguers is speculative so I’m not convinced he ought to be in even on peak measures.

Kiner, Ralph – I’ve still got him as a short-career, weak-defending .274/.393/.539 guy. Wish he had played a couple more years. Can’t imagine how he significantly outranks Oms, who played a tougher position better than Ralph played his weak position, has more career WS and isn’t much behind in peak.

Childs, Cupid – Reevaluated at least four times during the project, and he’s not within shooting distance of the ballot.
   88. DL from MN Posted: September 28, 2006 at 09:39 PM (#2190709)
> 9. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average hitter by about 20%
> has to be on the ballot.

The main reason I participate is to learn more about baseball history. Artie Wilson was a AAA all-star but so was Ray Dandridge. I think he should have been in the majors but he didn't have much power and as a "ball in play" kind of hitter his average would have dropped significantly in the majors. You think Dobie Moore is too "speculative" but you're willing to ballot a singles hitter?

I'm also not getting Kiki Cuyler over Bob Johnson. I had overlooked Cuyler though and he ended up in my top 40.
   89. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 28, 2006 at 09:43 PM (#2190718)

I was more curious that Childs isn't "within shooting distance" but other short-career high-peak types like Browning, Waddell, McGraw, Joss, Dean are in the gunfight. But, then again, I'm also a jealous friend of Cupid's.....
   90. yest Posted: September 29, 2006 at 02:19 AM (#2191000)
my understaning was they moved Kuenn to the outfield because they wanted Billy Martin in the lineup and they thaught that Kuenn was the only one of the infielders who could play the outfield
   91. dan b Posted: September 29, 2006 at 02:30 AM (#2191010)
PHoM 1986 – McCovey, J. Wynn

1. McCovey PHoM 1986, easy choice for the top spot.
2. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons and also 10 consecutive seasons.
3. Kiner PHoM 1966. Ignore the überstats and pay homage to seven consecutive HR titles. Above the HoM median in 3 and 5 year peaks.
4. Waddell PHoM 1926 and returned to my ballot for the first time since 1939 in 1964.
5. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
6. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
7. Roush PHoM 1942. Arnold Hano, in his 1955 “A Day In The Bleachers”, called Willie Mays “the finest player employed by the National League since Eddie Roush.” Using WS to compare to Ashburn:
· 3 year peak - Roush 36, 33, 30; Ashburn 29, 28, 28
· 5 year peak (consecutive)– Roush 144; Ashburn 138
· 8 best years – Roush 218, Ashburn 216
· WS/162 – Roush 25.9; Ashburn 24.4
· OPS+ - Roush 126; Ashburn 111
· NHBA Rank – Roush 15, Ashburn 16 (and BJ is a timeliner)
· Too bad we elected Ashburn.
8. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
9. Pierce PHoM 1985. By WS, best in AL 1955 and 1958, 2nd best 1953.
10. Minoso PHoM 1972.
11. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
12. Wynn, J PHoM 1986.
13. Boyer, K More deserving than Sewell.
14. Fox, N
15. Howard, F
16. Howard, E
17. Cravath
18. Leach
19. Munson
20. Cooper, W
   92. rico vanian Posted: September 29, 2006 at 04:41 PM (#2191556)
I place alot of value on peak, prime and career value, with a side helping of black and grey ink.

(With apologies to Dr. Chaleeko) …Hey Ho, Let’s Go

1)Willie McCoveyBlitzkrieg Bop : Head and shoulder’s above the other candidates
2)Ralph KinerRockaway Beach : 7 home run titles in a row. I see a lot of attention to players who had a few good years and how deserving they are to be HOM’ers, but jeez, this guy led the league in Home Runs 7 straight years! Mega peak.

3) Nellie FoxBeat On The Brat - 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
4) Ernie LombardiTeenage Lobotomy : 2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
5) Chuck KleinI Wanna Be Well : 4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
6) Burleigh GrimesGo Mental: 5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
7) Pie TraynerJudy Is A Punk :.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
8) Luis Aparicio53rd & Third: nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
9) Sam RiceGlad To See You Go: Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
10) Rube Waddell- I Wanna Be Sedated : The Randy Johnson of the 20th centuries' first decade. Randy just doesn't have a sense of humor (but might be just as insane as Rube was).
11) Phil RizzutoSheena Is A Punk Rocker - SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
12) Gavvy Cravath- Pet Cemetary: The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
13) Jake BeckleyPinhead: almost 3000 hits.
14) Hugh DuffyThe KKK Took My Baby Away: That .440 year is just plain sick.
15) Lou Brock- Carbona Not Glue – The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.

almost doesn't count
16) Ken Boyer - MVP. 7 all star games.

17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
19) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
20) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
21) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
22) Minnie Minoso - I just don't see his Negro league experience pushing him over the top.
23) Orlando Cepeda-
24) Billy Pierce - Very good, never great.
25) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
26) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
27) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
28) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.

Bud Harrelson, Ralph Garr, Marty Pattin and Bernie Carbo get mentions because I just love the quartet of names: Bud, Ralph, Marty and Bernie – it sounds like a bowling team.
   93. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: September 29, 2006 at 05:02 PM (#2191584)
Beat On The Brat

I thought you were voting for Eddie Stanky!
   94. DL from MN Posted: September 29, 2006 at 06:33 PM (#2191681)
I would place both Rube Waddell and "I Wanna Be Sedated" higher up on that list.
   95. Chris Cobb Posted: September 29, 2006 at 06:52 PM (#2191712)
1986 Ballot

One electee in 1985 came from high on my ballot. The other two were low, so new (so old they are new) faces reach the bottom of my ballot, but there’s little movement at the top, since McCovey steps into the #1 spot with ease.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade, and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Willie McCovey (n/e). % = 1.28. Yes, he was injured a lot, and he was poor defensively, especially in the later part of his career. But he was an awesome hitter, and he lasted a long time despite his knee problems. #7 1B all time through 1985.
2. Rabbit Maranville (1) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling.
3. Charlie Keller (3). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
4. Quincy Trouppe. (4). % = 1.0453. A review of Trouppe’s record shows the perils of eye-balling adjustments. I had decided that Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs were a bit too high, as he was estimating some leagues at .90/.82 that I would estimate at .87/.76, so I had decided that Trouppe was not quite good enough. I _finally_ got around to going over the doubtful years myself, and even with the changes, Trouppe still looks excellent. So he’s now in the top third of my ballot, and I see him as a solid HoMer.
5. Jimmy Wynn (5). % = 1.0386. Wynn is unusual among modern candidates in that his case is more of a peak case than a career one. He had a great peak in a tough league, but he declined early.
6. Billy Pierce (6). % = 1.0370. Good discussion of leverage helps his case with me. I hope his candidacy is gaining momentum: we should definitely elect him.
7. Edd Roush. (7). % = 1.0499. The biggest beneficiary of my rankings review. I had pushed him downwards because I felt outfielders had been overrated, but his peak and career are both too good to leave him off the ballot.
8. Minnie Minoso (8). % = 1.0451. As with Keller, WARP and win shares agree that, with appropriate MLE credit, he is the best remaining candidate from the 1950s.
9. Alejandro Oms. (9) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
10. Dave Bancroft (11). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
11. Tommy Leach. (12). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
12. Ralph Kiner (13). % = 1.0357. Didn’t have a well-rounded game, but the best bat eligible (after McCovey).
13. Jake Beckley (14). % = 1.0250. Holds steady in the new system.
14. Herman Long (16). % = 1.0192. As in Maranville’s case, I think Long’s long career of defensive excellence is being significantly underrated by the electorate.
15. Rube Waddell (17). % = 1.00. Back on my ballot again. I have him at the top of the “on the in-out line” group, because, although I think a player must have a substantial career to merit consideration, I find that seasonal dominance is the tie-breaker in my mind, and I think Waddell had the most of that in the candidates, from 15-27, whose overall value in my system is numerically indistinguishable. The fact that Waddell excels relative to his contemporaries on my peak rate measure also helps confirm that he should be at the top of my “on the in-out line” group.

1985 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Charley Jones (19). % = 1.00. Passes Redding on the dominance criterion. May well reach my ballot in 1987 for the first time since 1913.
17. Dick Redding (12). % = 1.00. In shifting my view of Redding from a career candidate to a peak candidate, I find he slips decisively (though not far) behind Jose Mendez, and how he looks more similar to Rube Waddell
18. Bus Clarkson (21). % = 1.00. Reconsideration moves him to the top of the off-ballot infielder crowd, ahead of Boyer, Fox, and Childs. I wish we knew more about his defense and his playing time! I’m inclined to rank him higher, but this is where Dr. Chaleeko’s MLEs put him, and I don’t see evidence that they are underrating him.
19. Ken Boyer. (24) % = 1.00. Moves ahead of Cash on league-strength considerations.
20. Norm Cash. (22) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer on league-strength considerations.
21. Cupid Childs(26). % = 1.00. Is he on track for election? He will probably make my ballot before he goes in, if he goes in.
22. Gavvy Cravath (23). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked.
23. Nellie Fox (25). % = 1.00. Less of an impact player than Boyer or Childs, but still worthy.
24. Bob Johnson (nr). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
25. Joe Tinker (nr). % = 1.00. Likewise
26. Dom Dimaggio (nr). % = 1.00. Likewise
27. Jimmy Ryan (nr). % = 1.00. Likewise

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

28. Bill Monroe .9922
29. Don Newcombe .9886
30. Urban Shocker .9867
31. Burleigh Grimes .9845
32. George Burns .9879
33. Willie Davis .9896
34. Mike Griffin .9791
35. Johnny Evers .9779
36. Fielder Jones .9778
37. Lave Cross .9709
38. Hugh Duffy .9686
39. Johnny Pesky .9676
40. Ben Taylor .9667
41. Cy Seymour .9665
42. Dick Bartell .9653
43. George Van Haltren .9538
44. Larry Doyle .9614
45. Bobby Veach .9609
46. Buzz Arlett .9602
47. Vada Pinson .9599
48. Leroy Matlock .9544
49. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Childs, Boyer, Fox. My omission of these three candidates follows from my conclusion that high-defense shortstops with decent bats for their position were more valuable than good-hit, good-glove players at other infield spots. I don’t oppose the election of any of these three players, but they trail Maranville, Bancroft, and Long. All three will probably reach my ballot as we go deeper into the backlog.

Dobie Moore. He misses my ballot, and my top 50, because I don’t find his peak to be so outstanding that it counterbalances his lack of career.

Dick Redding. As a peak candidate, he falls just short of my ballot.

New Arrivals.

John Hiller. A fine pitcher. My system for evaluating relief pitchers shows him to be rather similar in value to Mickey Lolich and Catfish Hunter among contemporary starters. Probably the #2 relief pitcher of the 1970s, after Rollie Fingers, though Mike Marshall, Sparky Lyle, and Tug McGraw offer some competition for that designation (and Goose Gossage, if one counts him as a 1970s pitcher, would be #1).
   96. Esteban Rivera Posted: September 29, 2006 at 10:25 PM (#2191901)
1986 Ballot:

1. Willie McCovey – An exceptional peak “stretch” with the career numbers he put up place him at the top of this year’spack.

2. Rube Waddell - Was a special pitcher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was playing elsewhere.

3. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

4. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

5. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

6. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

7. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

8. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

9. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

10. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

11. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

12. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

13. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

14. Edd Roush – Vaults up from the nether regions of my consideration set. The arguments on his behalf made me look and realize that I had goofed. Playing time issues still hold him back somewhat.

15. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

16. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

17. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

18. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

19. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

20. Ken Boyer – Giving him a little war credit nudges him into the top 20.
   97. Mike Webber Posted: September 29, 2006 at 10:25 PM (#2191902)
I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

I read “Water for Elephants” by Sara Gruen this week. Excellent book, highly recommend. A ninety year old remembering his days with a depression era traveling circus. Fiction, if you read novels it is a very good one.

1) WILLIE McCOVEY Last week we argued if he was better or worse than Greenberg. If you stand a fighting chance in that argument, you get to go to the top of the ballot.
2) EDD ROUSH –Andrew Siegel calls him the 16 best Centerfielder in Baseball History, including Negro Leaguers and those active in 2006. Sunnyday-Marc has him 13th or 14th among all eligible centerfielders including Negro Leaguers. Dr. C has him 11th in his system – though it does not include Negro Leaguers.

If you are voting for Wynn ahead of Roush, please look at them closely. They are both very good, but I think Roush is better.

3) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
4) KEN BOYER – Of the great Cardinals of the 1960’s, I wonder how many at the time figured Boyer was better than Cepeda or Brock?
5) JIMMY WYNN – Solid player in the wrong environment (both era and field) to rack up black ink or traditional counting numbers.
6) RALPH KINER – Despite a shorter career (unadjusted) than most of my top 15, Kiner’s peak moves him up the ballot. Four 30+ Win Share seasons.
7) MINNIE MINOSO – Paired with Kiner, but just behind him.
8) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
9) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
10) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era.
11) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
12) ALE OMS Re-read his ballot, and his arguments are very persuasive.
13) BULEIGH GRIMES I have problems with pitchers, who seem to be at the top of my ballot or off the ballot. I like Grimes career stats.
14) LOU BROCK – As a career voter I’ll put him here, but am not 100% comfortable with it.
15) CARL MAYS Added the number 2 pitcher in my system to the bottom of the ballot.

Disclosures – Quincy Trouppe – I asked my friend Lloyd Johnson off the top of his head where Trouppe would rank all time among the Negro League catchers. He said he would guess around 10th, and named off 4 or 5 obvious names ahead of him then 3-4 more (not so obvious – Perkins?) then Trouppe. He did say he was a wonderful athlete, he just happened to play catcher – I’d guess along the lines of Jamie Quirk (as an athlete – Quirk had college scholarship offer to quarterback at Notre Dame, and played SS and 3b in the minors before George Brett moved him to catcher).
None of which means anything, but I thought I would pass it along.

Pierce and Waddell – Mendez, Mays, Pierce and Grimes are my top pitchers.– I’d rather have Vic Willis among pitchers turn of the century pitchers than Waddell.

Cupid Childs – behind Doyle and Lazzeri in my rankings.

Newbies – I am not sure I have ever been as mad at any player as I was at Jose Cardenal in the 1980 World Series when he struck out on a pitch where he literally threw his bat at a pitch. Jeez I was P.O.ed.
   98. jimd Posted: September 30, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2192018)
Ballot for 1986

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) B. WALTERS -- He moved up considerably in my pitcher reevaluation. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

2) W. MCCOVEY -- More of a peak candidate (and less impressive) than I remember. Did little post 1970. Prime 1963-70. Best player candidate 1969-70. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1968, 1969; WARP adds 1970; WS adds 1965, 1966. Other star seasons include 1963, 1966, 1973, 1975.

3) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

4) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

8) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

9) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he was ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

10) P. TRAYNOR -- Reassessing IF in general also. Traynor and Bancroft were major beneficiaries. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

11) B. PIERCE -- HOM needs pitchers. Prime 1950-58. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1955; WS adds 1952, 1953, 1958. Other star seasons include 1951. HM in 1950, 1956, 1957.

12) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

13) D. BANCROFT -- See Traynor. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

14) T. MUNSON -- Reassessing catchers in general. Close to Howard and Freehan. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

15) R. WADDELL -- Prime 1902-08. Best player candidate 1902. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1905; WARP adds 1904. Other star seasons include 1903. HM in 1906, 1907, 1908.

16) M. MINOSO -- Marginal candidate, but aren't they all. Prime 1951-61. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1954, 1959, 1960; WS adds 1956. Other star seasons include 1953, 1955, 1957, and 1958. HM in 1952 and 1961.

17) D. MOORE -- Reevaluated him after recent discussions.

18) D. TROUT -- Prime 1942-48. Best player in baseball, 1944. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1944 and 1946; WARP adds 1943. HM in 1942, 1945, and 1948.

19) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

20) G. VAN HALTREN -- Not much more to say. Prime 1889-1901. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1896 and 1897 (WARP). Other star seasons include 1895, 1898, 1900, 1901. HM in 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893, 1894, 1899.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Ray Schalk, Wilbur Wood,
23-24) Jim McCormick, Ralph Kiner,
25-26) Nellie Fox, Joe Tinker,
27-28) Jake Beckley, Hugh Duffy,
29-30) Norm Cash, Dizzy Dean,
31-32) Bill Hutchison, Tommy Leach,
   99. OCF Posted: September 30, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2192054)
33 voters. 79 candidates so far.
   100. Brent Posted: September 30, 2006 at 03:13 AM (#2192123)
1986 Ballot:

Willie McCovey and Dobie Moore make my personal hall of merit.

1. Willie McCovey – I see him as very close to the median among HoMers. (PHoM 1986)

2. Orestes Miñoso – The discussions have been comparing him to the wrong players. I see Wheat, Goslin, and Slaughter as the appropriate comparables (see Minoso thread). Fits in squarely within the HoM’s fourth quartile. (PHoM 1970)

3. Phil Rizzuto – Great defense, hit well for a shortstop, ages 25-27 in military service. (PHoM 1967)

4. Hugh Duffy – Had a reputation as a great defensive center fielder. In view of his 5 pennants, I’m inclined to believe that the reputation was well founded. (PHoM 1931)

5. Jimmy Wynn – Spending most of his career outside the spotlight, it’s easy to forget how good he was. (PHoM 1985)

6. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

7. Alejandro Oms – compares well to any of the eligible center field candidates. Check out the Oms thread. (PHoM 1967)

8. Ken Boyer – Best available 3B candidate. Five Gold Glove awards; MVP for 1964. (PHoM 1975)

9. Nellie Fox – Contributed with both the glove and the bat over a fairly long career. 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. (PHoM 1979)

10. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 121 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

11. Dobie Moore – Among the short career, high peak candidates, I think his is the best case. (PHoM 1986)

12. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

13. Elston Howard – Best eligible catcher. (PHoM 1977)

14. Dick Redding – Playing during a poorly documented era, my rating is based as much on his reputation as on his statistics. (PHoM 1976)

15. Frank Howard – Hit like Ralph Kiner, but in worse parks and for a couple of seasons longer.

Near misses:

16-20. Cravath (PHoM 1976), Brock, Grimes (PHoM 1940), Newcombe, Cepeda,
21–25. Keller, Bresnahan, Leach (PHoM 1932), Easter, Arlett

Other consensus top 10:

Billy Pierce – For me, Newcombe is the next in line among 1950s pitchers.

Rube Waddell –
Ralph Kiner –
Cupid Childs –
These guys all had careers that followed a pattern that the electorate likes better than I do. They had nice 3-year peaks, 5 to 7 really good years, and a few filler seasons when they were average or below average. I call these “3-7-career candidates” because I believe they do particularly well with voters who use a system based on measures of 3-year, 7-year, and career performance. My own system tends to prefer either players with slightly lower peaks but better 8th, 9th, and 10th-best seasons (e.g., Miñoso) or players with shorter careers but even better peaks (e.g., Dean).

Other new arrivals:

John Hiller (ranked # 83) had one of the greatest relief seasons ever.
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