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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 09, 2006

1987 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Bobby Bonds, Sal Bando, and Mike Marshall.

Top-ten returnees: Ralph Kiner, Billy Pierce, Minnie Minoso, Ken Boyer, Cupid Childs, Nellie Fox, Cannonball Dick Redding, and Jimmy Wynn.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2006 at 11:52 AM | 129 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Mr Dashwood Posted: October 16, 2006 at 10:37 AM (#2213617)
I've been unexpectedly drawn into the excitement of post-season baseball by the Tigers' surprising season, as well as being burdened by two jobs at the moment (next ballot should be the last so affected), so I apologize for not posting a preliminary. I vote on the basis of achievements during prime, working on the basis of an average season during the prime, and defining prime differently for pitchers, hitting positions (1b+OF) and fielding positions (remaining IF). I used to apply a strict positional balance policy, but I'm moving toward a comparative approach (eg, if catcher X, then catcher Y, too). I also prefer, where possible, to use OPS+ relative to position, than to overall League.

1 Ralph Kiner His career was short, but for half of it he was comparable to an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Seven home run titles is the third-highest total in MLB history, too.
2 Cupid Childs Between 1890 and 1897 he accumulated 214 Adjusted Batting Runs and 72 Fielding Runs, which is a very high total for an infielder.
3 Jimmy Wynn Way underrated. In terms of Batting Runs + Fielding Runs he's the most impactful of hitters on my ballot.
4 Ken Boyer Boyer is an excellent third baseman in an 11-year prime, and is only a little less valuable than Childs. Another underrated candidate.
5 Thurman Munson Closer to Freehan over prime than people seem to think, I rate these two as of equal value. The difference comes down to Freehan's advantage in best-3-OPS+-years against Munson's more playing time at catcher.
6 Minnie Minoso Not quite the height of prime I'd like to see, but he still adds 3 wins a year during it, with solid peak seasons in 1952, 1954 and 1956.
7 Billy Pierce A consistent pitcher offering a steady supply of 2-3 Wins Above Average per season over an eight-year period.
8 Bucky Walters. Equivalent to Pierce over his prime, but offers more high-impact seasons in contrast to greater consistency.
9 Elston Howard Howard was a very good catcher, and no slouch with the bat either. I'd certainly rather have him behind the plate than the elected Joe Torre. Howard averaged more games at catcher than Torre.
10 Alejandro Oms Oms beats out a crowded field of outer circle HoMer types because he has got the longest prime.
11 Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
12 Edd Roush When he retired he was the 2d-best centrefielder in National League history. Overshadowed by his AL counterparts.
13 Sal Bando A very good bat married to a very poor glove. By my preferred batting measure, OPS+ against League position, he scores way ahead of Boyer (201 in 1973!), and better than Jimmy Wynn or Bobby Bonds or Tony Oliva. But his Fielding Runs are atrocious, and I give a lot more weight to fielding at 3b than I do to OFs.
14 Orlando Cepeda By virtue of height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
15 Lou Brock. One cannot ignore that he is, in 1985, the all-time stolen base leader. He also has a very long prime, at 13 years.

Esteemed newcomer:
I was very disappointed in Bobby Bonds , who came out poorly for an outfielder on my OPS+ scale. I'd vote for Tony Oliva or Roy White ahead of him.

Required disclosure
Nellie Fox: He featured on my ballot once, I think. He's part of a group of 3bs and MIs who take away with their bat what they add with their glove. This phenomenon is difficult for me to weight properly. I don't think he's going to make my ballot until I finish my infield studies.
   102. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 16, 2006 at 12:05 PM (#2213630)
41 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: andrew siegel, Mark Donelson, SWW, Don F, David Foss, Trevor P., Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Esteban Rivera, Devin McCullen, Tiboreau, Max Parkinson, KJOK, the Commish, and Vaux.

No ballot will be counted after 8 PM EDT, since we have a real close election again.
   103. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 16, 2006 at 01:56 PM (#2213681)
1987 Ballot:

1. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

2. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

3. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

4. Billy Pierce – The comparison with Marichal makes me realize that I had him too low. Looks worthy when compared to his peers.

5. Edd Roush – Vaults up into the top five with considerations for hold out credit.

6. Ralph Kiner – His peak is enough to land him on my ballot.

7. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

8. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

9. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

10. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

11. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

12. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

13. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

14. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

15. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

16. Minnie Minoso –I suspect the study turned up about the same information we did in regards to his pre-major league years.

17. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

18. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

19. Ken Boyer – Giving him a little war credit nudges him into the top 20.

20. Quincy Trouppe – All evidence points to him being a good to great hitter for his position and a solid if not good catcher. Works for me.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Dick Redding – Too much uncertainty surrounding him to put him on my ballot.

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 25.
   104. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 16, 2006 at 02:37 PM (#2213719)
I've sent e-mails to all remaining voters, though my e-mail to Ken Fischer came back "Mailer-Daemon."

Max e-mailed me to say that he will post his ballot sometime early afternoon.
   105. DavidFoss Posted: October 16, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#2213733)
1987 Ballot

1. Larry Doyle (1) -- I think the electorate is underrating him, his support is waning. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak. Fielding was mediocre, but not as bad as WARP suggests. We've inducted corner guys who haven't hit as well as he did.
2. Cupid Childs (2) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level. A bit more career length and he would have been in by now.
3. John McGraw (3) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keeping him out of the HOM so far...
4. Ralph Kiner (4) -- Top-notch peak, career sputtered out a bit too early. Still, 149 OPS+ in 6256 PA with a healthy peak on top of that is pretty darn good.
5. Billy Pierce (5) -- Fine mid-size career candidate. Scores well in RSAA. Pierce or Waddell? Looks like we are going for both.
6. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Cravath has a monster peak that is holding up against new eligibles. Very similar to Kiner.
7. Charley Jones (7) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly. Returning to my ballot after a sizeable absence. He is not from an underrepresented era which is making me a bit apprehensive about his future on my ballots.
8. Dick Redding (8) -- "Cannonball" had the 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James.
9. Roger Bresnahan (10) -- Great five year peak at C. 126 OPS+ is OBP-heavy. Didn't appear to play full-time outside his peak though... getting a small subjective boost due to catcher shortage from his era.
10. Charlie Keller (12) -- Incredible hitter for several years. Career shortened by minors on the front end, injuries on the back end and war in the middle. Very difficult guy to judge. Certainly HOM-level, but will he get enough time-credit to get inducted?
11. Al Rosen (13) -- Another top-level player, but for short enough to keep him out of the HOM so far.
12. Pete Browning (nr) -- Great peak, career OPS+ of 162 but in-season durability, career-length, league quality and fielding issues have weighed him down relative to other players. Finally makes my ballot.
13. Bob Elliott (11) -- Great hitter for five years... not as great as Al Rosen, but much more meat to his career making him more ballot-worthy.
14. Frank Chance (nr) -- He's back! One of the very best hitters of the 19-00's. He would have been inducted long ago if he could have stayed healthier.
15. Edd Roush (nr) -- Great hitting CF-er of the late deadball and early liveball era.
16-20. Chance, Lombardi, BJohnson, Fox, Beckley,
21-25. Welch, Trouppe, DMoore, Minoso, FHoward,
26-30. Cash, Bando, Leach, JWynn, Cepeda
31-34. Brock, KBoyer, Newcombe, TBridges
   106. andrew siegel Posted: October 16, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#2213734)
Very quick ballot because I am busy rushing the deadline to file 2005 taxes for those of us who lazily filed for extensions. Everybody moves up 2 spots.

1) Keller (2nd)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). The only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

(2) Roush (3rd)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except Keller and the third basemen. A star in his own time.

(3) Pierce (4th)--Fits with those we've elected. The gap between #4 and #25 is very slight.

(4) Cravath (5th)--Not quite the offensive force that Keller or Allen was, but consistently close to that level. Kiner with a longer produtive career or Charley Jones w/o the competition problems.

(5) Bob Johnson (6th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(6) Cash (7th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(7) Bridges (8th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(8) Leach (9th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM.

(9) Trouppe (10th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's.

(10) Minoso (11th)--If you give minor league credit, his offensive rate stats come down just a bit, which is something I hadn't quite factored in. That costs him 4 spots.

(11) Wynn (12th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(12) Boyer (13th)--Did it all well for just long enough. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

(13) Elliot (14th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(14) Childs (15th)--Welcome back. One of my favorite players. Only knock is that there were so many good SS and 3B during his era that his position dominance may have been a fluke.

(15) Oms (nr/17th)--Jumps over Duffy for the last spot when I realized that Duffy has a "Brock problem," i.e., that his WS come in a much larger opportunity context due to batting at the top of the order and playing everyday.

Kiner only had four particularly good years (but they were so good he's still in the 20's). There are arguments for Fox; I just like others better (he's in the low 30's). Redding's numbers don't do it for me; I have him as slightly below Wilbur Cooper, which puts him about 55th.

Bonds and Bando are very much in play. Right now, I have them 28th and 31st, respectively, but the gap between #3 and #34 is ridiculously small. I'll keep studying them.
   107. rawagman Posted: October 16, 2006 at 03:01 PM (#2213741)
David - I think it's time to update your player comments (Elliot and Pierce especially).
   108. DavidFoss Posted: October 16, 2006 at 03:13 PM (#2213752)
David - I think it's time to update your player comments (Elliot and Pierce especially).

Yeah, sorry about that.

Waddell I had very near Pierce. I found the Pierce vs. Waddell debates a bit moot because they were both in queue for induction. Pierce/Waddell vs someone on the outside would have made for a more important discussion. And it does look like we'll induct both (I have no idea what the count is this week).

Elliot/Rosen was a comparison I struggled with for a while. I'm a peak voter, but I initially found Rosen's career too short so Elliott made my ballot first. On review, I've been noticing a similarity between Elliott's career and the wealth of HOVG-or-better 3B-men from the 70s. Specifically, its Bando's presence that made me rethink Elliott. Although, I do still like Elliott better than Bando, the comparison knocked Elliot down about five slots this week (below Rosen). Rosen's peak still stands tall compared to even inner-circle 3B guys so he didn't take the hit.

Consider those my player comment updates for those two guys. :-) I'll clean all my comments and start from scratch next time (yes, its long overdue).
   109. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2006 at 03:52 PM (#2213793)
danb, Cupid Childs?
   110. dan b Posted: October 16, 2006 at 04:27 PM (#2213834)
I have Childs between 25 and 30 on this ballot. I prefer Larry Doyle when it comes to 2B from long ago.
   111. OCF Posted: October 16, 2006 at 04:57 PM (#2213898)
44 votes, 87 candidates. Still waiting for someone to vote for Shocker and Bartell.
   112. SWW Posted: October 16, 2006 at 05:07 PM (#2213910)
Well, it’s nice to be missed. Thanks for the reminder, Grandma. So let me just lead off with my usual consensus-shatterer.

<u>1987 Ballot</u>
1) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Regularly a team and league leader, and the biggest frickin’ teddy bear I’ve ever seen. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
3) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
4) Saturnino Orestes Armas Minoso Arrieta – “Minnie”
A fine career, regardless of whether he gets Negro League credit or not. Eight times in the Top 10 in AL Win Shares is very impressive. 85th on Bill James Top 100.
5) Carl William Mays
I’m coming to believe that Carl is really one of the overlooked greats of the mound. I think if he’d had one huge season, he’d have easily gone in ahead of Lemon or Ferrell. In fact, I’m a little baffled by the love for Billy Pierce when Mays has equal or better numbers for his career, and with two fewer seasons.
6) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. I have him ahead of Bando, but I’m not sure he’s this far ahead. That deserves another look. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
7) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
8) Louis Clark Brock
It’s possible that WS overrate him, and players like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch have comparable career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Like so many of the very good Negro League stars, very difficult to get a handle on. Remains this high thanks to my support for Mays, who has strikingly similar arcs.
10) Edd J Roush
Returning to my ballot after a brief absence. I’ve always liked his career stats, and the recent discussion of time missed helps to reinforce my earlier view that he is a worthy candidate.
11) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
12) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
13) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Speaking of which… I always come back to him. Of the guys who are all career and no peak, he’s the one I would induct first. Great career numbers, and consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time. That’s what separates him from guys like Beckley, Hooper, and Aparicio.
14) Charles Herbert Klein – “Chuck”
Making his ballot debut. Both Kiner and Klein contribute so much at their peak that my position as a career voter has to consider them. In comparing the two, Klein has the superior numbers. Kiner has tougher competition, but I give Chuck the slightest edge.
15) Ralph McPherran Kiner
The shortness of the career still troubles me, but I understand the reasons for that, and he definitely made a significant impact in the time he was healthy. 59th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 89th on SABR Top 100. 90th on Sporting News Top 100. 96th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 46th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Walter William Pierce – “Billy”
I don’t think I’ll be saying this again: Grimes beats Pierce on career WS, prime WS, peak WS, Black Ink, Gray Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards. Burleigh is inching cloer to the top 20, though, so maybe people are coming around.
Clarence Algernon Childs – “Cupid”
This year I won’t be mentioning a certain Ee-Yah. Suffice it to say, for a second baseman, I find his career too short and his peaks insufficiently high to place him above Fox or Doyle. Strikes me as a peakier version of Red Schoendienst.
James Sherman Wynn
I’ve got a lot of center fielders jockeying for position on my ballot. Wynn fares better than I expected, with 6 Top 10 WS finishes and a solid career. A little flat, but his similarity to the newly-ascendent Roush is helping his cause.
   113. Trevor P. Posted: October 16, 2006 at 05:29 PM (#2213946)
1987 Ballot. Missed 1986, so all my past rankings are from the year before.

I wish I had time to post in-depth comments on all the players in the top-10 who don't make my ballot, but I don't. Regardless, Kiner and Wynn are in my top 25. As for Fox, I prefer Dave Bancroft when we're talking low offense, long career middle infielders, and Bancroft is about #30, so there's Fox for you.

1) George Van Haltren (1). Career 121 OPS+ is deceptively tarnished by a 45 and a 72 in his final two ML seasons. Add in almost 700 IP and, in my mind, you have the second-best pure career candidate on the board.
2) Jake Beckley (2). And the best? That would be Beckley. 125 OPS+ in over 10,000 adjusted AB is quite a lot of value, even though I give more credit to a 9-year peak than I used to.
3) Billy Pierce (3). It was in vogue to compare Pierce to Marichal. But we enshrined contemporary Bob Lemon, and Pierce has nearly double (198 to 107) the amount of adjusted PRAA, and wins out in DERA 3.97 to 4.17. Do 220 more total bases at bat really make up that difference? If Lemon belongs, so does Pierce.
4) Quincy Trouppe (5). More appearances per season than Schang, and a much better hitter than Mackey - probably Hartnett-lite. It's been bandied about on the Negro League induction thread that Trouppe wasn't even nominated for consideration, which unless our evaluations are way off is quite a shame.
5) Bob Johnson. (7) Beats Minoso in career EQA, WARP1, WARP3, and OPS+. Probably one of the top five or six OF of the 1930s. Something interesting I noticed awhile ago - Johnson appears to be the only eligible player we haven’t enshrined who, according to BP’s translations, would have hit 500 HRs.
6) Edd Roush (8). Hurt by the discount to WARP3. Comparable to the now-elected Richie Ashburn.
7) Cupid Childs (6). Coming into the 1970s, I'd thought I might have been overrating Childs's contributions, but my 2B reevaluation in 1971 underscored how impressive his peak really was.
8) Burleigh Grimes (9). Substantial movement in 1976 after comparing his case with Eppa Rixey, whom I had as high as #2. His extreme highs are enough to balance out his scary lows; if he’d grouped them all together, instead of vacillating between the two extremes, we might have the pitching equivalent of George Sisler.
9) Minnie Minoso (10). Similar to Bob Johnson; placement depends on how much credit you give for his pre-ML play. I can’t fathom how one could have Minoso in an elect-me position and Johnsn off-ballot, though.
10) Jimmy Ryan (11). All the GVH comparisons are valid; I just think Van Haltren’s a tad better. Might’ve been the Billy Williams of the 19th century with a higher peak.
11) Bob Elliott (12). Similar to Hack; better than Boyer when one looks at his era’s competition at 3B.
12) Dick Redding (13). A slightly lesser version of Burleigh Grimes, in my estimation, without the mind-boggling lows.
13) Alejandro Oms (15). Made a long-awaited return to my ballot in '85. Overshadowed by other greats during his time, but still accrued enough value to catch the tail end of this ballot.
14) Ken Boyer (ne). Doesn't shine as much as Elliott when compared to his competition, but has enough fielding value to get on this ballot.
15) Norm Cash (ne). Slightly preferrable to Cepeda due to his fielding.
   114. OCF Posted: October 16, 2006 at 07:22 PM (#2214108)
Through 46 voters, 40 different candidates have received "elect me" votes: 23 with 1st place votes; 8 others with without 1st place but with 2nd place; 9 others without 1st or 2nd place but with 3rd place votes. The least-appreciated candidate to get an "elect me" vote is Eddie Cicotte; the least-appreciated candidate to get a 1st place vote is Rabbit Maranville.
   115. KJOK Posted: October 16, 2006 at 07:22 PM (#2214109)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, .651 OWP, 319 RCAP, 102 WARP1, 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

4. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

5. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

6. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

7. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, .498 OWP, 157 RCAP, 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

8. BILLY PIERCE, P.26 POW, 94 WARP1, 224 RSAA, 191 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 119 ERA+ in 3,305 innings. Different career shape than Wynn, but very close in ranking. Close to Marichal also.

9. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

10. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

11. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

12. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

13. THURMAN MUNSON, C. 25 POW, 72 WARP1, 174 RCAP & .571 OWP in 5,903 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Initially thought his career would be too short to make my ballot, but in comparison to his contemporaries, he still graded out around # 4-5 in his 30-year window.

14. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back again! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.

15. JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Better than Kiner overall.



BOBBY BONDS, RF. 27 POW, 94 WARP1, 203 RCAP & .629 OWP in 8,090 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Very similar to Wynn, but less time in CF.

SAL BANDO, 3B. 10 POW, 80 WARP1, 220 RCAP & .597 OWP in 8,288 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Good hitter for a 3B, but needs really long career to make ballot at this rate of overall performance.


RALPH KINER, LF.24 POW, 75 WARP1, .693 OWP, 346 RCAP, 6,256 PAs. Def: FAIR. Given the differences in career length and defense, can’t see putting him on ballot ahead of Bob Johnson.

MINNIE MINOSO, LF. 21 POW, .636 OWP, 182 RCAP, 86 WARP1, 7,710 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Pre-MLB years don’t add much to his case.

KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, .483 OWP, 129 RCAP, 93 WARP1, 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

EDD ROUSH, CF. .622 OWP, 205 RCAP. 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, .697 OWP, 245 RCAP, 71 WARP1, 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   116. Mark Donelson Posted: October 16, 2006 at 07:32 PM (#2214125)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and some WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, it’s PRAA, with some WS and ERA+ adjustments for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

I finally did my long-planned review of HOM/not pHOM ‘50s pitchers again, since I’d done a reassessment of the unelected ones but hadn’t gotten to Ford, Early Wynn, and Lemon. I decided to compare them to each other in ERA+ as well as use PRAA and WS to compare them to everyone else, and that helped me see how I’d missed the boat on Ford. (Well, that and the leverage, I guess.) Ford makes my pHOM finally. Pierce stays more or less where he was (still above Ford), Wynn rises a bit, Lemon falls even further down (he won’t ever be making my pHOM).

pHOM: Jimmy Wynn, Lefty Gomez, Whitey Ford

1987 ballot:

1. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m confident this guy was the real deal.

2. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). I’m convinced he was the class of his position at his time, and generally dominant for long enough to get my vote.

3. Ralph Kiner (pHOM 1964). He still looks pretty good to a peak voter.

4. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it.

5. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

6. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least from a peak perspective.

7. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

8. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Three lost causes in a row! Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

10. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me. Gee, this section of my ballot is getting full of lost causes!

12. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). It’s hard to see through the AA haze, but any way I peer, he looks truly dominant.

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Surpassed recently by Freehan and Howard, but still quite worthy.

14. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). Another AA masher, and while the peak isn’t quite as awesome as the bare numbers would make it appear, he was clearly a force.

15. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). Makes it back to the ballot after a slight demotion some “years” back. I still find his peak makes him the most appealing of the unelected pitchers of his time. (Does that sound like faint praise?)
   117. Mark Donelson Posted: October 16, 2006 at 07:33 PM (#2214127)
16-20: Cravath (1985), Pierce (1985), Fox (1986) J. Wynn (1987), Gomez (1987), [W. Ford (1987)]
21-25: Bresnahan (1973), [Faber], F. Howard, Roush, McGraw [B. Williams], H. Smith
26-30: Oms, Redding (1975), Pesky, Bando, Trout
31-35: Boyer, Joss, [E. Wynn], Berger, [Reese], H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach
36-40: McCormick, Doyle, Minoso, Chance, J. Ryan
41-45: Elliott, Cepeda, Munson, Burns, Bobby Bonds
46-50: Easter, Brock, Colavito, Rizzuto, Dunlap

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Pierce. Not enough peak to be among my most favoritest pitchers eligible, but after some adjustment for era (‘50s pitchers as a rule have peak trouble, and that can’t all be just because there weren’t good ones), he joins the second tier. My reassessment just clinches it. Already in my pHOM, and sneaking toward my ballot at #17.

•Minoso. Kind of the rich man’s Van Haltren: very good for a long time, but he doesn’t really have the kind of peak I’m looking for. At #39.

•Boyer. Not my favorite of the eligible 3Bs—I prefer the peak-heavier Rosen and Williamson, and even McGraw. He’s midpack, and probably too far back to ever reach my pHOM. At #33.

•Fox. Don’t like him as much as Childs—not as much peak—but I like him; he made my pHOM last “year.” He’ll probably make my ballot someday too; at #18 right now.

•Redding. Used to like him more than I did, but I find his peak a little more suspect now. In my pHOM from the old days; now at #27.

•Wynn. Again, not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. Makes my pHOM this “year,” and not far off ballot at #19.

•Bonds. I don’t really see it—not quite the peak I’m looking for in my corner outfielders. Starts at #45.

•Bando. I agree that he’s comparable to both Boyer and Elliott; I just don’t have either of those guys all that high. I like Bando very slightly better than both; he debuts in the (long-term) running at #29.

•Marshall. Another tempting reliever, but as with Hiller, I feel I have to insist on a slightly longer peak than usual with short relievers. Not in my top 50, though not that far outside.
   118. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 16, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2214222)
Switching to a Top 40 this week . . . some major revisions too . . .

1. Gavy Cravath RF (2) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

2. Jack Quinn SP (3) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

3. Charley Jones LF (6) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

4. Urban Shocker SP (4) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

5. Billy Pierce SP (5) - What's not to like? He played for good teams, and behind good defenses, but he also faced the toughest opposition as was custom for an ace in his era. A forgotten star historically. He took a bit of a dip with my league adjustments (AL much worse than NL during his tenure). But I still think he's worthy.

6. Tommy Bridges SP (8) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

7. Jake Beckley 1B (7) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

8. Charlie Keller (17) - I think I finally see the light here. Gave him minor league credit for 1938, when he was clearly major league quality, and I threw in war credit. He comes out way ahead of Kiner once I do this.

9. Thurman Munson C (10) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

10. Wally Schang C (11) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

11. Ben Taylor (--) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

12. Norm Cash 1B (20) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

13. Dave Bancroft SS (14) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

14. Cupid Childs 2B (12) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

15. Jim Fregosi (25) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

Honorable Mention:

16. Burleigh Grimes SP (15) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

17. Dobie Moore (24) - Tough to get right, but I'm feeling a little more peaky this time around.

18. Roger Bresnahan (--) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

19. Quincy Trouppe (--) - Convince me that I should have him higher than Bresnahan . . . not being sarcastic.

20. Pie Traynor (--) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one.

21. Phil Rizzuto (18) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

22. Don Newcombe (--) - Gets color-line and Korea credit.

23. Cecil Travis (21) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

24. Tony Lazzeri (--) - Great hitter for a 2B. Short career and fielding keep him from being higher.

25. Minnie Minoso (19) - I was underrating his pre MLB play.

26. Waite Hoyt (--) - Peak is nothing special, but good pitcher for a long time.

27. Bucky Walters (--) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though.

28. Bob Johnson (22) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

29. Jimmy Wynn CF (13) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

30. Tommy Henrich (23) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

31. Nellie Fox (--) - Long solid career at a key position.

32. Alejandro Oms (--) - Pretty good hitter, conservative ranking, I really don't have a handle on him.

33. Dick Redding (--) - I'm just not seeing what everyone else does for some reason.

34. Dutch Leonard (--) - Pretty good pitcher at his best. Never had the one huge year, but had a bunch of very good ones.

35. John McGraw (--) - KJOK will be happy he's back on my list . . . if only he wasn't so brittle.

36. Ralph Kiner (16) - I dropped him a fair amount in 1981 - He's quite similar to Charley Jones, but Jones was a plus fielder, Kiner a minus. That makes all the difference in the competition this tight. He's not that far behind though.

37. Ken Boyer (--) - Compared to their peers, I cannot see rating him ahead of Traynor.

38. Edd Roush (--) - We've elected worse (coughmaxcareycough).

39. Dom DiMaggio (--) - Huge beneficiary of war credit.

40. Andy Cooper (--) - Giving the Negro League Committee credit on this one too. His 225-175 equivalent record is similar to Tiant, Harder.

Sal Bando . . . next in line at 3B, would probably be in the next 10.

Bobby Bonds . . . not very far behind either.
   119. OCF Posted: October 16, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2214252)
There's that Shocker vote. 88 candidates. And Quinn makes another "elect me": 41 of those.
   120. Max Parkinson Posted: October 16, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#2214275)
1987 ballot:

1. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

2. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

3. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

4. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

5. Dick Redding
6. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

7. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

8. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

9. Ralph Kiner

I promised that I’d take another look. I was penalising his defence more than I should have – he wasn’t there for his glove…

10. Ben Taylor
11. George Burns
12. Bobby Veach

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

13. Urban Shocker
14. Charlie Keller

Makes my ballot for the first time, I think. Not too far off of the MP Hall….

15. Bucky Walters

16-20. Cash, Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy
21-25. Munson, Pierce, B. Johnson, W. Wood, R. White
26-30. Cuyler, Cicotte, Minoso, Childs, Roush
31-35. Youngs, Bridges, Klein, Tiernan, Hooper
36-40. Rucker, F. Jones, Traynor, Trouppe, Boyer
41-45. Bonds, Bradley, F. Howard, Wynn
46-50. Oms, Willis, Trout, E. Howard, Seymour
51-55. Nicholson, Leach, Chance, Griffin, Cepeda
56-60. Gomez, Ryan, R. Thomas, Schang, S.J. Wood
61-65. Nash, Dunlap, Luque, Beckley, Harder
66-70. Bottomley, B. Elliott, Bartell, Bando, Hodges

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Pierce is 22. I have concerns regarding how many more pitchers we’re going to elect from the inferior league of the ‘50s.
Minoso is 28. As my ballot indicates, I prefer Burns and Veach.
Childs is 29. Second only to Lazzeri in my 2B backlog, but I’m not one who thinks that we should have as many 2B as SS.
   121. rawagman Posted: October 16, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#2214292)
Max - 41-45 has only 4 guys. And where's Nellie Fox?
   122. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#2214306)
> 15. Jim Fregosi (25) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

Try Bus Clarkson, he could hit.
   123. Max Parkinson Posted: October 16, 2006 at 09:41 PM (#2214352)

Thanks for the catch. Everyone from Oms moves up one - which takes Fox all the way up to 71. Hodges, Fournier, Nellie Fox.
   124. Andrew M Posted: October 16, 2006 at 09:44 PM (#2214359)
1987 Ballot

1. (2) Dobie Moore. Taking into account his army years, he appears to have been a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years and high peak SS’s are hard to find.

2. (5) Billy Pierce. To my mind, the best eligible pitcher. I don’t see much difference between Pierce and Bunning or Drysdale or Marichal. He’s neither a peak candidate nor a career candidate, but he was one of the best pitchers in the AL for almost a decade.

3. (3) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ not impressive, perhaps, but it’s OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

4. (4) Larry Doyle. Is it only BP’s assessment of his defense that keeps him from getting much support? As far as I have been able to determine, BP’s assessment of his defense (and others’) is not consistent with other historical ratings (Win Shares, Diamond Mind) or contemporary accounts. Not many 2B have been his equal offensively. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

5. (6) Edd Roush. He’s hard to get a handle on. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso, Jimmy Wynn. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding) seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other eligible candidates.

6. (7) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him more than I like the three 1890s OFs.

7. (10) Geo. Van Haltren. It gets boring typing his name every two weeks, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

8. (8) Dick Redding. The projections I’ve seen suggest Juan Marichal might be a close comparison. As with other projections, I don’t know if this is accurate, but certainly by reputation he would seem to belong in the HoM. I’m not completely sold on him, though I could say that about just about everyone on this ballot.

9. (11) Tommy Bridges. Like Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

10. (12) Ralph Kiner. Not really my type of player, but he does seem like the best of this type--and 149 OPS+/.319 EQA in over 6,000 PAs seems impressive enough to look past his defensive shortcomings or short-ish career.

11. (13) Minnie Minoso. Spent the 1950s in the top 10 in pretty much every offensive category in the AL. Gets some NeL credit.

12. (new) Jimmy Wynn. I looked at him more closely this week and found he moved up considerably in my OF rankings. An unusual, relatively brief career, but he got on base a ton, hit for power, seems to have been a decent fielder, and had one of the best of all nicknames.

13. (14) George J. Burns. Arguably the best NL OF of the 1910s. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade. There's a good argument that he should be rated higher than Roush, but until he gets more than a couple of votes, I'm not going to make it.

14. (15.) Quincy Trouppe. Good offensive catcher. I don’t have much of a sense of his defense, but assuming he was at least average, I think he looks pretty similar in career length and quality to Bill Freehan, though his skills were quite different.

15. (new) Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B. Welcome back to the ballot, Tommie.

Next 8
Bucky Walters
Charlie Keller
Alejandro Oms
Vern Stephens
Jimmy Ryan
Ken Boyer or Sal Bando
Indian Bob Johnson
Herman Long

Required Disclosures: Ken Boyer. I’ve voted for him before. Currently just off the ballot, though if push came to shove, I’d probably place Bando above him on the ballot.
   125. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 16, 2006 at 11:30 PM (#2214451)
Fighting the deadline again -- I’ve got to either stop watching baseball (that’ll take care of itself for a while soon), post earlier, or stop going to the mountains on weekends. Knowing me, I’ll probably keep doing things just the same.

1987 ballot:

1. Minnie Minoso: A six-tool player -- the usual 5 plus “get hit by pitches”. Strong in all phases of the game, fine prime, lacks only eye-popping seasons. (eligible 1970, PHOM 1972)

2. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

3. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

5. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

6. Ralph Kiner: 7 homer titles. A latter-day Pete Browning without league quality issues. (eligible 1961, PHOM 1976)

7. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

8. Billy Pierce: The epitome of the “crafty lefthander.” (eligible 1970)

9. Orlando Cepeda: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

10. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

11. Pie Traynor: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941)

12. Lou Brock: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

13. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. Back on after a few years absence. HOF vote still bothers me a bit; he’d be higher if it didn’t. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

14. Jimmy Wynn: Well-rounded candidate, good peak, career. (eligible 1983)

15. Dizzy Dean: There’s not much besides the incredible, brief peak, but if we’re looking for greatness in candidates, he had it. (eligible 1946)

Required comment:
Cupid Childs: My #3 2b behind Fox (on ballot) and Doyle (off).
   126. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 16, 2006 at 11:33 PM (#2214454)
Gah. Insanely busy at work (although it’s over now) leaves me with less time to re-analyze than I’d like for such a pivotal vote. But I do feel fairly certain about the newbies, so I’ll go ahead with a ballot. (I’m not posting past 15 this year b/c I don’t have time to change all the numbers.) Cravath & Beckley make my PHoM this year. The third is either Medwick or Boyer, but I’m really not sure and don’t need to decide that today.

1. Minnie Minoso (2) The more I look at him, the more I like him ahead of the other OF candidates. Gets a bit of an era boost from me – even though the AL was the weaker league, the Fifties are somewhat underrepresented, and also defensive credit for playing some 3B. Also, the spread between the leagues took some time to develop. Made my PHoM in 1971.

2. Dick Redding (3) Now that Mendez is in, my highest ranking pitcher. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

3. Jimmy Wynn (4) I do sort of worry that I'm just voting for the uber-stats, but the more I've looked at him, the more I like him. Out of all the CF candidates currently out there, his OPS+ beats everyone but Wally Berger, who has other issues. Made my PHoM in 1985.

4. Bill Monroe (6) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Dobie Moore (7) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

6. George Van Haltren (8) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

7. Billy Pierce (9) There really isn’t much separating him from Marichal when you look at the totality of his career, although the year-by-year Win Shares are not impressive. The RSAA numbers for his era, however, are. Did have his best years in the early 50s, when the NL advantage was not so great. Made my PHoM last year.

8. Quincy Trouppe (10) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

9. Tommy Leach (11) Best Friend no more. Drops because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

10. Gavvy Cravath (12) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I really need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system). Makes my PHoM this year.

11. Cupid Childs (13) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my PHoM in 1932.

12. Jake Beckley. (14) I still think his typical season was pretty weak, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Moved past Medwick/Johnson because I really do think the 30s are overrepresented. Makes my PHoM this year.
(12-13A Joe Medwick)

13. Ken Boyer (15) Moves up because he missed time in the minors due to military service. It doesn't help his peak, but gives him enough of a career boost to move pass Clarkson. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question.

14. Bob Johnson (16) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. I don’t think I’ll ever comprehend how Medwick can be in and Johnson nowhere close.

15. Bobby Bonds (new) Another guy I see as very similar to Medwick and Johnson in total value. A little less pop in his bat, but made up for some of it on the bases.

Sal Bando is pretty close to Boyer and may be on the ballot shortly, but I’m not willing to totally disregard WARP yet.

Ralph Kiner and Nellie Fox are both in the 20s: see prior-year ballots for explanations.
   127. Daryn Posted: October 16, 2006 at 11:57 PM (#2214472)
I'm all a tingle. Let's have it...
   128. OCF Posted: October 16, 2006 at 11:59 PM (#2214473)
Those last two Minoso votes ...
   129. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 17, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2214474)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
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