I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Willie Stargell-LF/1B (n/e): Great, great hitter. Lack of (relative) durability keeps him from the inner-circle HoMers, IMO, but he's a bonafide worthy, nevertheless. Best ML left fielder for 1966, 1971, 1973, and 1974. Best NL first baseman for 1978.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (1): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Is this the year? Best major league second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896, and 1897.

4) Charlie Keller-LF (3): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. With reasonable WWII and MiL credit, I can't see Kiner going in before him (peak voters have an argument, though), IMO. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

5) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

6) Bucky Walters-P (5): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

7) Mickey Welch-P (6): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

8) Pete Browning-CF/LF (n/e): Back on the ballot after decades off. Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

9) Vic Willis-P (7): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

10) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/dh (8): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, 1969, and 1972. Best right fielder for 1974.

11) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (9): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

12) Gavvy Cravath-RF (n/e): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

13) Alejandro Oms-CF (11): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

14) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (12): Why Kell, but not Elliott? He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (14): Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Boyer, Fox, Beckley, and Trouppe all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Reggie Smith is at #20 and could possibly move on to my ballot at a later date.

Luis Tiant was a fine pitcher, but how many hurlers from his time can we induct into the HoM? I know some disagree with me here, but I feel the favorable conditions had a hand in extending the careers of that generation's moundsmen.

Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.
I liked Billy Williams a bit less than the consesus and I feel that Stargell had a similar career type. I have Williamsabove Stargell and Williams goes into my PHOM now, along with Minoso (I realized a little late that I was underrating him a bit). I also appreciate the skillset of Reggie Smith. I think he exhibits more of what Jimmy Wynn fans see in Wynn. Tiant was a very nice pitcher and that is worth 32nd place this year. In line with his comparables (see where I have Marichal, Bunning, Pierce) I think next week with its pitching influx will provide a good test of my ranking system for hurlers.

1)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
2)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on (and up!!) the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
3)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
4)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
5)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
6)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
7)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
((7a)Billy Williams - Quite the sweet swing he had. His career with Kiner's peak would look something like Frank Robinson.)) (PHOM)
((7b)Minnie Minoso - His election made me run another BS dump on his resume. I had not been giving him enough credit for his NeL play, not did I quite take into account the breadth of ways in which he helped his teams. May even be higher, but a moot point right here.)) (PHOM)
8)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations.
9)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove.
((9a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((9b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
10)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
11)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.
12)Orlando Cepeda
13)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
14)Wally Berger - super-underrated
15)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half.
16)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((16a)Juan Marichal))
17)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
18)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
19)Roger Bresnahan
20)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
21)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((21a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((21b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting or fielding. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))
22)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
23)Chuck Klein
24)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
25)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((25a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
26)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
27)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
28)Cupid Childs
29)Pete Browning
30)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
31)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent.
32)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
33)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit
34)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
35)Phil Rizzuto
36)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
37)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
38)John McGraw
39)Jimmy Ryan
40)Cy Williams
41)Dolf Camilli
42)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
43)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
44)George Kell
45)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
46)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
47)Sal Bando
48)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
49)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
50)Johnny Evers
51)Elston Howard
52)Bob Johnson
53)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
54)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
55)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
56)Red Schoendienst
57)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
58)Thurmon Munson - see below.
59)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
60)Johnny Pesky
61)Hippo Vaughn
62)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
63)Tip O'Neill
64)Rocky Colavito
65)Denny Lyons
66)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
67)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
68)Lon Warneke
69)Don Newcombe
70)Kiki Cuyler
71)Urban Shocker
72)Alejandro Oms
73)Tony Lazzeri
74)Jimmy Williams
75)Bill Nicholson

1988 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Willie Stargell 26.3 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. Compares favorably with contemporaries McCovey, Billy Williams.

2. Dick Redding If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

3. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

4. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

5. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

6. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

9. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

10. Luis Tiant – 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than recent electee Billy Pierce.

11. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

12. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds like a HOMer to me. Dropped with recent analysis of other candidates.

13. Charlie Keller 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

14. Jimmy Wynn 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

15. Ben Taylor I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

16. Jake Beckley 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

17. Larry Doyle 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

18. Bob Elliott 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Also has appeared on my ballot before.

19. Quincy Trouppe I’m beginning to come around on him.

20. Bobby Bonds 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Definitely in the consideration set.

21. Sal Bando 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Better than I expected.

22. Cupid Childs 18.6 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. I’m surprised by the low WS/PA batting totals, compared to someone like Doyle. However, as Chris Cobb pointed out, WS/G brings them closer. Also is very close to Larry based on OWP.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Missing top 10

Ken Boyer – 17.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough from a hitting position for me. I like Bob Elliott and Sal Bando better.

Nellie Fox – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Wouldn’t be a horrible selection, but I like a little more hitting, and prefer Doyle/Childs to Nellie.

New Notables

Reggie Smith – 23.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Not really much of a peak, but a better prime than Bonds or Wynn. Reminds me of Willie Davis, even down to closing the career in Japan.

Bobby Murcer – 21.2 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. While they were direct competitors, Murcer was better than Reggie Smith.

Lee May – 17.2 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 4 AS. A fine hitter.

Sparky Lyle – 34.7 pWS/300IP, 0 MVP, 4 AS. Good reliever, but not quite HOM material.

1) Pops Stargell - not that far away from the other eligibles as has been the case with other 1st timers I've placed #1
2) Bob Johnson - Higher WARP1 than Stargell and if WARP had given Johnson credit for 1 PCL year he would have a higher WARP3 than Stargell. The offensive gap between them is mostly made up by Johnson's durability and defense (137 FRAA in Johnson's favor).
3) Norm Cash - Very good offense, very good glove, long career but platooned
4) Luis Tiant - I think he's just a shade below Pierce and I think he's the best available pitcher. Not the best of his era by a long shot
5) Jake Beckley - nuff said
6) Tommy Bridges - another player with lots of very good seasons that does well in my spreadsheet
7) Quincy Trouppe - Terrific bat for a catcher, long career there so the glove must have been at least average, would have been an all-star multiple times in an integrated league, much better than contemporary Lombardi
8) Reggie Smith - I'm not considering credit for his time in Japan on this ballot. Does surprisingly well, lots of very good seasons
9) Dutch Leonard - Long career innings eater compares well to Rixey
10) Orlando Cepeda - I like Cash better because of the defense (also more BRAA) but Cepeda was a great hitter
11) Ken Boyer - edges Trucks on this ballot because they're essentially tied and Trucks' numbers involve credit
12) Virgil Trucks - with proper war credit he looks impressive
13) Edd Roush - welcome to the ballot thanks to the discussion of holdout credit, accomplished his feats differently and just slightly better than
14) Jim Wynn - drops a bit this year due to newcomers and Roush
15) Dave Bancroft - Best SS available, much better value per inning than Nellie Fox
16-20) Jack Quinn, Gavy Cravath, Frank Howard, Bob Elliott, Luke Easter
21-26) Charlie Keller, Bobby Bonds, Cupid Childs, Alejandro Oms, Bus Clarkson, Urban Shocker

15-26 are all ranked within the margin of error and I may be more correct if I pick the names out of a hat for this grouping

27-31) Jimmy Ryan, Dick Redding, Johnny Evers, Hilton Smith, George Van Haltren

Required disclosures: Dobie Moore is 40th due to short career, Fox is 94th because I don't think his glove at 2B was special enough to make up for a lack of offense. A higher replacement value really hurts Fox.

Bus Clarkson is a definite top 50 candidate for me but I'm not certain of his defensive value. He was a utility guy who played up the middle pretty often. His bat was good enough that he had value at 3B and 2B and his glove was good enough that he could play SS. Watching the World Series last night Placido Polanco immediately jumped into my head as a comparable player but Buster was a better hitter. I'm thinking Clarkson was the type of utility guy who played all the infield positions well rather than the type of utility guy who you could stick at any of the infield positions because his bat was so good. My reasoning is if he was the latter he would have played a lot more outfield. I don't know if he was as slick with the leather as Polanco though and I'm guessing more toward the mean by placing him 25th.

1988 ballot (MP HoMers in bold, new electees in ’88 are Stargell and Childs):

1. Pete Browning

I am now convinced that he would have been one of (if not THE) the best hitters in the ‘80s even if there was only one league. I have therefore minimized his AA penalty.

2. Charley Jones

I’ve been giving him credit for his “lost” years due to blacklisting, and he vaults up the list.

3. Dobie Moore

Incredible Peak. I assume that he would have been the best SS in baseball for nearly a decade, were he allowed to play.

4. Dizzy Dean

Dean moved up for me when I realized that I was underrating peaks in pitchers. When Sandy Koufax can’t sniff my ballot, something’s wrong. The changes I incorporated helped Dean as well as Mendez.

5. Willie Stargell

Only one of the best position players in the game a couple of times, but in the backlog, that’s good enough. Of the 18 LFers that we’ve elected (assuming he goes in this year, and I’ve got Ch. Jones but not Minoso), he’s 11th. I’ve got Stargell ahead of Clarke, Medwick, W. Brown, Kiner, Billy Williams and Magee.

6. Dick Redding
7. John McGraw

If we were factoring in managerial success, he would have been in this hall as early as the ‘Coop. Alas, it’s looking tough for him here on playing alone. Not for me, though.

8. Gavvy Cravath

Another adjustment. Was the best RF in the game for a good 6 year stretch, with MVP-calibre seasons thrown in. I have resisted adding too much credit for MiL performance, but I couldn’t keep him from the ballot any longer.

9. (N)Ed Williamson

Between McGraw and Williamson, we could shore up the 3B drought pretty quick.

10. Ben Taylor
11. Cupid Childs

A little rejigging for the MP HoM (otherwise three LFers were next to go in, and I’m just not sure that I can handle being that far out of whack…) means a bump for Cupid.

12. George Burns
13. Bobby Veach

The more that I look at Oms, the more that I wonder if he would have been as good as the second-tier OF of the ‘10s and ‘20s (Burns, Veach, Roush). Maybe even the third tier (Hooper, Rice, Manush, Ken Williams).

14. Charlie Keller

Makes my ballot for the first time, I think. Not too far off of the MP Hall….

15. Bucky Walters

16-20. Cash, Lazzeri, Bancroft, Duffy, Konetchy
21-25. Munson, B. Johnson, W. Wood, R. White, Cuyler
26-30. Cicotte, Shocker, Roush, Youngs, Bridges
31-35. Klein, Tiernan, Hooper, Rucker, F. Jones
36-40. Traynor, Trouppe, Boyer, Bonds, Bradley
41-45. F. Howard, Wynn, Willis, Trout, E. Howard
46-50. Oms, Seymour, Nicholson, Leach, Chance
51-55. Griffin, Cepeda, Gomez, Ryan, R. Thomas
56-60. Schang, S.J. Wood, Nash, R. Smith, Dunlap
61-65. Luque, Beckley, Harder, Bottomley, B. Elliott
66-70. Bartell, Bando, Hodges, N. Fox, Fournier

Previous Top 10s and others of note:
Fox – 69.
Boyer – 38.
Roush – 28. He’s recently moved up about 10 spots.
Beckley – 62.
Wynn – 42.

I just don’t see any of these as particularly electable. I’m closest with Roush, but I fear that the gap between my HoM and the general one will grow once we get past the 89-92 rush.

Max's ballot is disqualified since he had the temerity to post it on the first day of election week, instead of his normal last-day posting. ;-)

I don't get Konetchy and Ben Taylor as both significantly better than Beckley.

He was a utility guy who played up the middle pretty often.

Well, that seems a little harsh. I mean he played half a career at SS and half at 3B (roughly speaking). It seems to me that he's just moving along the defensive spectrum. Utility suggests that he's not got enough bat to stick anywhere, but just enough glove to be useful for spotting for starters. And I don't think he fits the Tony Phillips/Cone Figgins super-utility model where the guy hits enough to play everyday but is flexible enough to play anywhere. To use the comparison above, he was an appreciably better hitter than Polanco and Placido's 96 career OPS+ as of age 30. I think more of a Julio Franco kind of career, as in if Franco had gone to 3B instead of 2B. Though I'd guess he was a better defender than Julio. Wasn't everyone?

PHoM: Willie Stargell & Reggie Smith

Ballot

1. Willie Stargell (new)

The widest gap on the ballot is between 1 & 2. No, he isn't an inner circle guy, but neither is anyone else on here.

2. Jake Beckley (1,2,3)

Has replaced GVH in my eyes as the most eregious ommission.

3. Reggie Smith (new)

Very close to Beckley.

4. George Van Haltren (6,3,4)

One day, George. One day....

5. Jimmy Wynn (7,6,11)
6. Nellie Fox (3,4,8)

Their time will come.

7. Mickey Welch (5,5,5)

8. Edd Roush (8,10,7)

9. Lou Brock (2,7,1)

My see-saw candidate. Deserves to be in.

10. Tommy Leach (10,9,6)

11. Dobie Moore (4,8,2)

12. Quincy Trouppe (11,11,10)

13. Hugh Duffy (9,12,9)

14. Norm Cash (13,13,12)

15. Bobby Bonds (12,x,x)

16-20. Cepeda, Childs, Boyer, Rice, Ryan
21-25. Mullane, Johnson, Browning, Grimes, Streeter
26-30. Willis, Redding, Strong, Gleason, Greene

DL,

Without going through painful detail, it comes down (at least for me) with how much value you give to being average.

Beckley has way more counting stats than Konetchy, but their performance relative to the average 1Bman over their careers is very close, and Konetchy did it in 5 fewer years. Total Runs (Off. plus Def.) above their positional average (based on Playing time):

EK 59 50 49 44 33 25 22 20 19 10 07 05 01 -2 -22 not playing 320
JB 42 35 30 29 29 28 26 23 18 16 15 14 11 09 009 05 02 01 -7 -9 326

I look at this and it says Konetchy's better - not tons better mind you, but there's not tons separating 5 from 75 on a backlog ballot. His top years make him one of the better position players in the game (Top 10 or 15), while Beckley's best years never get him there. As well, the words "Not Playing" mean a lot more to others than me.

On the other hand, I'm not so vain to think that my opinions are the only way. Perfectly reasonable people can look at this same data set, disagree with none of it, and point to why it's proof of why Beckley's infinitely superior to other non-Stargell hitters on the ballot. My mileage just varies from that.

I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

No major overhauls this time, though I’m planning a corner OF/1B analysis soonish. I did, however, decide that I was too hard on Mike Marshall last time around—his peak isn’t enough to make my ballot, but realizing that, measured by PRAA, his top five seasons were as good as any Wilhelm ever had led me to give him a boost. He’s not likely to ever make the ballot, but he’s in my top 50 now.

pHOM: Stargell and Roush.

1988 ballot:

1. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m confident this guy was the real deal.

2. Cupid Childs (pHOM 1938). I’m convinced he was the class of his position at his time, and generally dominant for long enough to get my vote. He moves into an elect-me spot for the first time for me, perhaps just in time to get elected?

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough, IMO.

4. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

5. Hugh Duffy (pHOM 1930). I’ve read all the pro and con arguments, and I keep ending up in the same place on Duffy: He belongs, at least from a peak perspective.

6. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

7. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

8. Willie Stargell (pHOM 1988). An easy #1 if he’d been more durable, but his peak on nonrate stats leaves something to be desired (not much, but something). Still, there’s no question he was among the preeminent players of his era when he was healthy, and that’s the bellwether for me, so he's an easy pHOM choice. Overall, his peak’s not dissimilar to those of guys like Kaline, who also fit in about here.

9. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Yet another lost cause, though he gets a bit more support than the other two. Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he presents an awfully appealing peak.

10. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

11. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years at this position are enough for me.

12. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). It’s hard to see through the AA haze, but any way I peer, he looks truly dominant; I’m not entirely sure that Stargell is truly better. It’s awfully hard to compare them directly, though.

13. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Surpassed recently by Freehan and Howard, but still quite worthy.

14. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). Another AA masher, and while the peak isn’t quite as awesome as the bare numbers would make it appear, he was clearly a force.

15. Bucky Walters (pHOM 1968). The most appealing of the unelected pitchers of his time, peakwise.

16-20: Cravath (1985), Fox (1986), J. Wynn (1987), Gomez (1987), Bresnahan (1973)
21-25: Roush (1988), Tiant, [Faber], F. Howard, McGraw, [B. Williams], H. Smith
26-30: Oms, Redding (1975), Pesky, Bando, Trout
31-35: Boyer, Joss, [E. Wynn], Berger, [Reese], H. Wilson, [Lyons], Leach
36-40: McCormick, Doyle, [Minoso], Chance, J. Ryan, Elliott
41-45: Cepeda, Munson, Burns, Marshall, Bobby Bonds
46-50: Easter, Brock, Colavito, Rizzuto, Dunlap

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Boyer. Not my favorite of the eligible 3Bs—I prefer the peak-heavier Rosen and Williamson, and even McGraw. He’s midpack, right on the borderline as far as whether he’ll end up making my pHOM or not. At #31.

•Fox. Don’t like him as much as Childs—not as much peak—but I do like him. He’s in my pHOM and quite close to my ballot, at #17.

•Wynn. Again, not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. Like Fox, he’s in my pHOM now, and, at #18, not far off ballot.

•Beckley. I repeat: I’m an extreme peak voter. He’s not on my radar.

•Reggie Smith. Classic HOVG type to me—not nearly the peak I’m seeking from someone who spent half his career as a corner OF. He only pulls ahead of guys like Klein and Oliva on career, and that doesn’t get him inside my top 50.

•Tiant. A tough call—he has the kind of peak I like, but it’s real short, even shorter than those of short-peak guys I favor, like Dean and Willis (at least at that high level). But he was, for a stretch of time, a dominant starter, and his shoulder seasons are nothing to sneeze at. He doesn’t get on ballot, but he debuts not too far off at #22.

•Murcer. A weird career: two really brilliant years (which were much better than I realized at the time…of course, I was four years old, so I have an excuse), then almost nothing else at all to speak of peakwise. Those two years weren’t a fluke, but they’re also not enough for me to elevate him on them alone, at least not as primarily a corner OF. I toss him into the Norm Cash area, which means a little outside my top 50.

•Neither Lee May nor Sparky Lyle (I’m sorry to say, in the latter case, as he was one of my childhood heroes, and I still crack open The Bronx Zoo from time to time) has enough peak to crack my honed-down consideration set.

He moves into an elect-me spot for the first time for me, perhaps just in time to get elected?

I'm such a liar; I had him second last "year." Oops. I guess it sounded more dramatic this way...

Stargell #7. Tiant #21.
Roush #30, win shares likes him a lot more than warp because of the warp league discount. Beckley #50—missing a peak. Childs #28.

1) Bob Johnson--A very underrated player. I was a WS guy but here in particular I think Warp has it right—great defense. PHoM in 1970.
2) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3. PHoM 1976.
3) Rizzuto--Lots of war credit. PHoM 1977.
4) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1987
5) KellerAdded back the war credit. PHoM 1985.
6) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. PHoM in 1970.
7) Stargell--due to low durability doesn’t have much of a peak. Best career on the board but not a top 25 peak.
8) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987.
9) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8.
10) Dobie Moore--PHoM 1985.
11) Trouppe
12) Elliott--PHoM in 1960.
13) Munson--PHoM 1986
14) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.
15) Bartell-- Add a little war credit too.

1988 Ballot.

1. Willie Stargell (new). All pervious hitters of this caliber were inducted into the HoM in minimal time.
2. Larry Doyle (5, 3, 2, 3, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. Quincy Trouppe (8, 6, 5, 4, 3) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
4. Orlando Cepeda (10, 8, 6, 5, 4) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league. Let's put Bill Terry back on the ballot - I would take Cepeda over him.
5. Jimmy Wynn (11, 9, 7, 6, 5) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
6. George Van Haltren (12, 10, 8, 7, 6) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
7. Norm Cash (13, 11, 9, 8, 7) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
8. Tommy Bridges (16, 14, 12, 9, 8) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
9. Bucky Walters (14, 12, 10, 11, 10) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
10. Frank Howard (18, 16, 14, 12, 11) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
11. Ken Boyer (20, 18, 17, 14, 13) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
12. Lou Brock (--, 15, 15, 14) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
13. Sal Bando (----, 15) I had Bob Elliott set to move into this position, but, head-to-head, I decided I liked Bando better.
14. Bob Elliott (21, 19, 18, 16, 16) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
15. Luis Tiant (new) A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. I remember the earlier career better than the later one, because I was more of a fan in the late 60's (junior high and high school; youth baseball and recreation league softball) than I was in the 70's (college and graduate school). A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
16. Reggie Smith (new) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
17. Jake Beckley (22, 20, 19, 17, 17) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
18. Dick Redding (23, 21, 20, 18, 18)
19. Luis Aparicio (24, 22, 21, 19, 19) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
20. Bobby Bonds (----, 20) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
21. Hugh Duffy (25, 23, 22, 20, 21) Nothing new to say after all these years.
22. Rabbit Maranville (26, 24, 23, 21, 22) Glove and career length.
23. Mickey Vernon (27, 25, 24, 22, 23) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
24. Nellie Fox (28, 26, 25, 23, 24) Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
25. Phil Rizzuto (29, 27, 26, 24, 25) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
26. Cupid Childs (30, 28, 27, 25, 26) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.
27. Edd Roush (-, 29, 28, 26, 27)
28. Vern Stephens (-, 30, 29, 27, 28)
29. Dobie Moore (--, 30, 28, 29)
30. Elston Howard (---, 29, 30)
31. Bob Johnson (---, 30, -)

1988

Very strange not to have Kiner and Waddell on my ballot after all these years. Newcomers Stargell and Reggie2 go PHoM.

1. Dobie Moore (1-1-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

2. Willie Stargell (new, PHoM 1988)

3. Edd Roush (2-4-3, PHoM 1976)—Roush’ peak of 38-33-30 makes absolutely no apologies to Kiner’s 37-35-30

4. Pete Browning (3-5-5, PHoM 1961)—moves ahead of Kiner among the “sluggers”

5. Larry Doyle (5-7-7, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush

6. Addie Joss (6-9-10, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available, another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

7. Nellie Fox (7-11-12, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever

8. Charley Jones (8-8-9, PHoM 1921)—trying to abandon Charley for years, just can’t do it

9. Charlie Keller (9-10-11, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

10. Reggie Smith (new, PHoM 1988)--underrated

11. Orlando Cepeda (10-13-17, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath, can’t PHoM them all in one year

12. Phil Rizzuto (16-15-18)
13. Gavvy Cravath (19-18-16)—move back up and on to ballot
(13a. Bobby Doerr [16a-18a-20a])

14. Frank Howard (15-16-14)—indistinguishable from a whole list of sluggers

15. Eddie Cicotte (12-14-13)—with no death credit!

Dropped Out

16. Dick Redding (13-12-13, PHoM 1971
21. Dizzy Dean (14-33-33)

Close

16. Redding
(16a. Joe Sewell [18a-23b-25b])
17. Elston Howard (18-17-20)
18. Ed Williamson (20-20-22, PHoM 1924)
19. Don Newcombe (28-28-31)
20. Bucky Walters (27-27-30)

Also Pretty Good

21. Dean

Only 1 of the 3 elected on ballot, so not much movement, though other 2 only just off. Stargell pretty closely equivalent to McCovey or very slightly below, so one spot lower (Welch having dropped and Waddell being elected, that’s #3, below Joss, whose ERA+ is much more impressive than Stargell’s OPS+. Smith above Powell but below Howard; put him just off – close to Klein and Johnson – better player than I thought at the time. I think Tiant was just a fraction better than Pierce; lower ERA+ but longer career and better W/L – also no league question over him- slips onto ballot. Murcer not very good – off bottom of consideration set, and May well below him

1. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 40 “years” ago.

2. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax.

3, (N/A) Willie Stargell 2232 hits (21 more than McCovey) at 147 (1 less.) Similar player, like most sluggers (McGwire will be the big example) overstated by OPS+ a bit. TB+BB/PA .568 , TB+BB/Outs .863, surprisingly low.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

7. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

9. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

10. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9-11-10-13-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-
15-N/A-15-15-14-13-N/A-15-14-13-12-13-11-11-12-13-12-13-13-14-14-12-11-12-9) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

11. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

12. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

13. (N/A-15-N/A-13) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back on again as Stretch was elected.

14. (N/A) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation.

15. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. Back on ballot in this quiet year.

OFF BALLOT

16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2-3-3-2-2-4-3-2-2-3-3-4-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-2-2-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater.
23. Ben Taylor.
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Norm Cash
26. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
27. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
28. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
29. Lou Brock
30. Mickey Vernon
31. Thurmon Munson
32. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
33. Sal Maglie.
34. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
35. (N/A) Heinie Manush
36. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
37. Bob Elliott
38. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
39. (N/A) Dick Lundy
40. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
41. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
42. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
43. Kiki Cuyler
44. Deacon McGuire
45. Boog Powell
46. Sal Bando.
47. Jim Fregosi.
48. Jack Quinn
49. Tony Mullane
50. Pie Traynor
51. Jim McCormick
52. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
53. Joe Judge
54. Edd Roush
55. Spotswood Poles.
56. Larry Doyle
57. Curt Simmons
58. Roger Bresnahan.
59. Waite Hoyt.
60. Harry Hooper.
61. Vada Pinson
62. Gil Hodges
63. Jules Thomas.
64. Rico Carty.
65. Wilbur Cooper
66. Bruce Petway.
67. Jack Clements
68. Bill Monroe
69. Herb Pennock
70. Chief Bender
71. Ed Konetchy
72. Jesse Tannehill
73. Bobby Veach
74. Lave Cross
75. Tommy Leach.
76. Tom York

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.
Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.

Karl,

The 19th post on the ballot thread? Aren't you a little late this week?

PHOM
Willie Stargell
Gavvy Cravath

1988 Ballot
1. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
2. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
5. Dick Redding – Error in spreadsheet moves him up. Elected PHOM in 1968
6. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
7. Hugh Duffy – Great defender Elected PHOM in 1970
8. Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Elected PHOM in 1960.
9. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10. Edd Roush –Elected PHOM in 1975.
11. Bucky Walters – Peak pitchers get a big boost in reevaluation. Elected PHOM in 1972
12. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
13. Willie Stargell - Joins Duke Snider in the overrated-but-still-a-clear HOMer department. Elected PHOM in 1988.
14. Dizzy Dean – Moves up due to big years bonus. Elected PHOM in 1973.
15. Elston Howard –Elected PHOM in 1985

Required Disclosures
Wynn Just misses my ballot
Boyer Just don't see enough of a difference between Boyer, Elliott or Bando to get him on the ballot.
Fox Mid 20's. May make my PHOM someday.
Beckley Not enough peak.
Trouppe Mid 30's.

New Candidates
Reggie Smith Better than Bobby Bonds. Not close to my ballot.
Luis Tiant Better than Catfish Hunter. Not close to my ballot.
Bobby Murcer Nice 2-year peak, but not enough peak value outside of that.

Off the ballot
16-20 Wynn,Keller,Bresnahan,Cravath,Newcombe
21-25 Monroe,Mays,Fox,Easter,Scales
26-30 Johnson,Boyer,Elliott,Bando,Tiernan
31-35 FHoward,WCooper,Trouppe,MWilliams,Doyle
36-40 FJones,McGraw,HWilson,Rizzuto,Munson
41-45 Leach,Traynor,AWilson,Cepeda,Clarkson
46-50 Stephens,Matlock,Poles,HSmith,Winters
51-55 Rosen,Bond,Schang,ACooper,Van Haltren
56-60 Ryan,DiMaggio,Burns,Pinson,Pesky
61-65 Chance,Taylor,Byrd,Berger,Fournier

sunnyday: Cupid Childs, Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Jake Beckley, Quincy Trouppe?

PHOM: Stargell and Bonds

1. Willie Stargell - Great peak, long career. You know you're good if you win an MVP and it wasn't even one of your 5 best seasons.

2. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

3. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

4. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

5. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

6. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

7. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

8. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

9. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

10. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

11. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

12. Bobby Bonds - 130 OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

13. Vada Pinson - Good hitting centerfielder for a long time. Top 100 for career in numerous stats including XBH, TB, RC, R, and hits.

14. Norm Cash - 139 career OPS+, monster season in 1961. Also a good fielder.

15. Hugh Duffy - Very good peak, mostly due to the triple crown winning 1894 season.

16. Edd Roush
17. Bob Elliott
18. Tommy Leach
19. Harry Hooper
20. Luis Tiant
21. George Van Haltren
22. Alejandro Oms
23. Buzz Arlett
24. Orlando Cepeda
25. Gil Hodges
26. Burleigh Grimes
27. Reggie Smith
28. Willie Davis
29. Fielder Jones
30. Dick Redding - Outside of his 3 year peak he doesn't impress me too much.
31. Pie Traynor
32. Cupid Childs - Nice peak, but not enough career value.
33. Wally Berger
34. Vern Stephens
35. Dick Bartell

Dobie Moore - Superb peak, but not much else.

13. Vada Pinson - Good hitting centerfielder for a long time. Top 100 for career in numerous stats including XBH, TB, RC, R, and hits.

I meant to mention this a couple of ballots ago, according to baseball-ref Vada is in the top 100 in RC, but per the SBE he is not. He is about 113th in the SBE, 50 runs from the 100th player in the SBE, I suppose it is a formula thing. But it just kind of caught my eye.

I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production. My number 4 and 5 were elected last year, and my top backlog pitcher.

1) Willie Stargell I looked closely at Stargell when he was compared to Billy Williams. I was surprised that Williams was a better player, but that probably has to do with when I became a fan in the late ‘70s. Can Mike E or someone explain to me why they played Stargell in left and Al Oliver in center while feeding at-bats to Bob Robertson after 1972? Roberton did look like a star earlier, so maybe they were just waiting for the bounce back. Must have really hurt themselves defensively though.
2) EDD ROUSH –Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
Thanks to everyone that gave serious thought to his holdout situation, even those who decided it didn’t merit additional credit. The open mindedness in this group is astounding.
3) JIMMY WYNN – Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
4) NELLIE FOX –300+ Win shares, good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
5) TOMMY LEACH – 300+ Wins Shares, big peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield. Only 1 MVP type season.
6) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
7) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
8) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
9) SAL BANDO - I have had Boyer fairly high on my ballot and I think Bando is better. I’ve lowered Boyer and slotted Bando ahead of him. Lowered both slightly this week.
10) KEN BOYER –
11) LOU BROCK – As a career voter I’ll put him here. 348 wins shares, his loss shares are the piece of the puzzle we don’t have.
12) CARL MAYS Durability, big seasons are why my system rates him ahead of Pierce
13) THURMAN MUNSON - Fewer career win shares than Bresnahan, not an outstanding peak, but an MVP award plus 3 golden gloves. Borderline, and I think behind Freehan.
14) BOB ELLIOT – If he had just slaughtered the league in 1944 and 1945 when he was 27 and 28, he might be in now. Exceptionally unsuited to his home park though. In those two seasons Elliott hit 20 homers, second most on the Pirates over the two seasons.
15) ORLANDO CEPEDA If this was a HOF style ballot, and you could vote for as many as you want up to 15 (I know the HOF is 10), I think I would have stopped at 8. Cepeda, 300 Win Shares, good peak, MVP award.

Disclosures:
Cupid Childs – good argument as the dominant player at his position, I like Doyle better though.
Jake Beckley – excellent career, not enough peak to pass Cepeda in my rankings.
Dobie Moore – There is something there, but I can’t put too much stock in his Hawaiian play.
Quincey Trouppe – I have learned a lot about him, and I thank everyone for educating me. I’d say behind Muson and Howard, but ahead of Schang – who seems similar, and Lombardi.

Newbies – Reggie Smith and Murcer, in the Gordian knot of players like Hugh Duffy, GVH, Ryan and Colavito where if you decide to bump up the value of one thing – say top 5 years – they spit them out in one order, but if you bump up something else – total win shares – they jumble out another way. Vote worthy depending on what you value.

Tiant – without a peak that puts him past Mays, Walters, Grimes, Cooper, Willis, I don’t see how his career value can surpass those guys. Another knot of players.

PHoM this year: Willie Stargell and Jim Bunning

1. Dick Redding, P (1). PHOM- 1975. I think that the Hall of Fame underestimated Redding because they overestimated the relative importance of his league play. Redding's best years clearly come before he entered organized leagues, occuring during the 1910s and then in the east in the early '20s when there wasn't an eastern league. Even during his few league seasons, Redding's teams played only forty games or less not giving him much of a chance to build up a league record. His independent record is spectacular. His winning percentage is .100 points better than his team's. He broke the 300 innings pitched barrier more often than Coveleski, Faber or Rixey. And if not for time missed due to military service in World War I (Redding missed the bulk of the 1918 and 1919 seasons), we'd be looking at someone with MLEs of greater than 250 wins.

2. Quincy Trouppe, C (2). PHOM- 1977. A great-hitting catcher with patience and power who was able to lead his team to several pennants and a 1947 Negro League Championship. Plus, he was picked for 5 Negro League All-Star teams despite spending his best years south of the border.

3. Nellie Fox, 2B (3). PHOM- 1976. One of the major reasons why we elected Joe Sewell was his great at bats per strikeout ratio. Well, that's a pretty good reason to vote for Nellie Fox, too. He has the fourth best career mark- which may not be quite as good as Sewell- but Nellie led his league in that category more times than Joe, 12 to 9 including 11 straight from 1954 to 1964 for Fox.

4. Willie Stargell, 1B (n/e). PHOM- 1988. Overrated, but still easily the best first baseman on the ballot.

5. Alejandro Oms, CF (4). PHOM- 1984. A very underrated outfielder who was among the best in the Negro Leagues in the 1920s and was still good enough to be a league-leader his native Cuban leagues through much of the '30s.

6. Lou Brock, LF (6). PHOM- 1985. Arguably the best career candidate on the ballot, Brock used his speed to accumulate 486 doubles and 141 triples (leading the league in each category once) as well as those notorious 938 stolen bases.

7. Burleigh Grimes, P (7). PHOM- 1984. I don't have the personal attachment to Grimes that I do to most of the other players on the ballot. But with the second best career totals for a pitcher and the peak that Welch is missing, I find no fault with his numbers.

8. Don Newcombe, P (9). PHOM- 1987. Military credit gives Newcombe seven outstanding seasons from 1949-1953 and 1955-1956, more peak seasons than any other pitcher on the ballot now that Rube Waddell has been elected.

9. Luis Aparicio, SS (10). PHOM- 1987. He was a star on the basepaths and with the glove. He did what shortstops of his era were asked to do and he did it better than any of the others. He won five straight Gold Gloves from 1958-1962 and then another 4 in alternating years from 1964-1970. Plus, like Joe Sewell, he was notoriously hard to strike out, finishing in the top ten in that category for 16 straight years from 1958 to 1973 and leading the league his league twice in 1969 and 1973.

10. Hugh Duffy, CF (12). I’m a big fan of what guys actually do and Duffy’s actual numbers are very impressive. There’s a reason why he was considered one of the best players of the 1890s. He had peak years in 1890, ’91, ’94 and ’97 and was an All-Star caliber player from 1890 to ’97.

11. Ken Boyer, 3B (13). Too close to Santo to be kept out of the HOM for much longer.

12. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (11). I continue to cool on Cepeda. This time around, I realized that his career advantage over Duffy and Boyer isn't as significant as I had thought once I consider schedule length for Duffy and positional bonus for Boyer.

13. Hilton Smith, P (14). Bill James Negro League Cy Young for 1938, 1940 and 1941.

14. Ernie Lombardi, C (15). Lombardi's offense trumps any other eligible catcher (with the exception of Trouppe) with lifetime rate numbers of .306, .358 and .460 (AVG, OBP and SLG).

15. Dobie Moore, SS (n/a). This is the first time that I've ever voted for Dobie Moore. Despite his shortened career, I still see him regularly cited as one of the top three Negro League shortstops of all time- right there with John Henry Lloyd and Willie Wells. A great-hitting shortstop with excellent range, but he definitely needed credit for his time with the Wreckers to get onto the ballot.

Necessary Disclosures on New Eligibles and Top 10 Returnees:
Luis Tiant: He'd been on my radar since before I started voting because he's better than some of his contemporaries who are already in the other Hall or getting significant attention. But after a closer look, I came away less impressed. His scattered black ink just doesn't cover up his inconsistency from year to year.
Reggie Smith: I wrote in the discussion thread that I prefer Van Haltren to Smith, and that's not a good sign for Smith considering how often I've argued against Van Haltren.
Cupid Childs: I just don't think Childs is that big a deal. For his era, I'd rather elect Beckley or Duffy. For his position, I'd rather elect Fox, Doyle or Monroe.
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough for not long enough.
Jake Beckley: Currently 16th on my ballot.

1988

1. Pete Browning (1)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

2. Charley Jones (2)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

3. Cupid Childs (3)--I don’t understand how he fell through the cracks, maybe things will turn around in the upcoming backlog years, but with the growing spectre of timelining, I doubt it. (1938)

4. Tommy Leach (4)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. Willie Stargell (-)--Fits quite nicely between Leach and Roush. A bigger peak than either, but not as much defensive value, all three with very good career value.

6. Edd Roush (7)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

7. Larry Doyle (6)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

8. Ken Boyer (8)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

9. Hugh Duffy (9)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a large group of borderline OF candidates. Counting players not in my PHOM, I’ve got 11 Outfielders between Duffy at #15 and Vada Pinson at #35. There really isn’t much difference between any of them. (1964)

10. George Van Haltren (10)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will make it eventually. (1966)

11. Carl Mays (11)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

12. Alejandro Oms (12)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

(Joe Medwick)
(Richie Ashburn)

14. Jimmy Wynn (14)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)

15. Bobby Bonds (15)--Very comparable to Wynn as a peak/career combination while the outfield glutcontinues to dominate my borderline.

16. Frank Howard (16)
(Joe Gordon)
17. Nellie Fox (17)
18. Quincy Trouppe (18)
(Red Faber)
19. Bob Elliott (19)
(Red Ruffing)
20. Vada Pinson (20)
(Bob Lemon)
21. Bucky Walters (21)
22. Wally Berger (22)
(Ted Lyons)
23. Dick Redding (23)
24. Ed Williamson (24)
25. Dobie Moore (25)
26. Sal Bando (26)
27. Norm Cash (27)
28. Bobby Murcer (-)
29. Orlando Cepeda (28)
Billy Pierce
30. Vern Stephens (30)
31. Roger Bresnahan (31)
32. Lou Brock (32)
33. Dave Bancroft (33)
34. Jimmy Ryan (34)
35. Charlie Keller (35)
36. Tony Lazzeri (36)
37. Phil Rizzuto (37)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
38. Gavy Cravath (41)
39. Reggie Smith (-)
40. Jake Beckley (38)
41. Bobby Veach (39)
42. Luis Tiant (-)
43. Dizzy Dean (40)
44. Roy White (42)
45. Tony Oliva (43)

Stargell and Medwick make my PHOM this year.

John wrote:

8) Pete Browning-CF/LF (n/e): Back on the ballot after decades off. Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

Out of curiosity, who do you have as the best LF for 1890?

1988 ballot, our 91st ballot

Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.
It would not be a shock to me if I someday got to a point where I didn't want ANY of my backloggers selected.

I had last year's electees Ralph Kiner 1st, Billy Pierce 2nd, and Minnie Minoso 9th.

1. WILLIE STARGELL - Wow, knew he was better than Kiner, didn't realize by how much. Closer to McCovey, probably, although he's not quite THAT good. Some playign time issues dock him a bit, but 10 top-10 SLG PCT finishes. Also six top-5 adj OPS+ finishes. This is one case where the "Most similar player" gimmick does fairly well - he was pretty much Frank Howard with an earlier start and later finish, more a tribute to underrated Howard than a knock on Pops.
2. CUPID CHILDS - This is a full-length career for this brutal and perhaps under-represented era, and this year he climbs for the second time in a while to 'elect-me' status. Even discounting 1890 AA as a weak league, you'll find seven other 120 OPS+ seasons here. Matches up well against 2Bs in all eras. Might seem cheesy to just say, 'Compare to Doerr and Gordon,' but he was similar and arguably better.

3. NELLIE FOX - Continues an inexorable climb up my ballot. Clearly the best of an era, clearly underrated, and looking more and more unique to me. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. Even moreso when you examine Mazeroski, Aparicio, and friends.
4. PETE BROWNING - An old favorite who gets a solid boost for a second consecutive year as I reexamine which players I seriously can imagine as HOMers. Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. If only he fielded a little better. He stunk at it, sometimes, but played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Was OF fielding hugely important in this era? I say no.
5. JAKE BECKLEY - I've noted on the Brock thread how thoroughly Beckley crushes Lou. WS is spectacularly wrong on that count, so much so that it should cause those favoring the metric to rethink it a bit, imo.
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (it was a much different game back then), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. Still, I am considering recent evidence that Beckley's was not the peak of the 1B fielding generation.
6. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's.
7. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back to mid-ballot status. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
8. BOB ELLIOTT - If you haven't examined him in a while, or ever, get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
9. KEN BOYER - Seven OPS+s over 120, and an excellent fielder, too. Good endurance, and seven times in the top 8 in ribbys. I can't quite get him over Elliott yet, but I am mulling.
10. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot.
11. GAVY CRAVATH - I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd be right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. With proper credits, better than Keller as well.
12. BUCKY WALTERS - First time on my ballot. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin.
13. REGGIE SMITH - Poor man's Bob Johnson, arguably even has an edge for up to the top 9 seasons. Too bad he burned out so quickly; I think he was on a HOM path. Big part of those 1977-78 Dodgers NL champions.
14. THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
15. MICKEY WELCH - The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.

NEWBIES
LUIS TIANT - In my consideration set; I'm glad we'll probably have time to digest him compared to his peers. Relative lack of in-season durability could well be what keeps him out of the HOM.
JIM KAAT - Nice fella, compares to Kaatfish Hunter but not to HOMer pitchers.

10 TOP RETURNEES NOT VOTING FOR
DOBIE MOORE - Really seems to be palatable only for a pure-peak guy. Even at SS, I don't see how he can compete with a guy like Keller, for example, who is only in the teens for me right now.
JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I do like Reggie Smith better, and that's the 6th 1B-OF on my ballot already, plus Keller and Howard were just as good or better.
QUINCY TROUPPE - Has a chance if I can be convinced that he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. Those types don't do anything for me. I'll be taking another look next year.
EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW II. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp, and I like Reggie better even without a timeline. Hall of Very Good, lucky to be in the Hall of Fame.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
CHARLIE KELLER - Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get him onto my ballot. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here so far has been too much for me.
ELSTON HOWARD - I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but willing to revisit it down the stretch.
FRANK HOWARD - As you can tell, my kind of player, but I'm still digesting how he rates in context of his time. Astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons! Four other OPS+s over 135.
GEORGE VAN HALTREN - I dismissed him long ago, but if the ballot ever thins it's inevitable he may reappear.
CHARLEY JONES - Battling to finally make his way onto my ballot after 80 years of 'neglect'.

Out of curiosity, who do you have as the best LF for 1890?

Billy Hamilton, though Browning is not that far off.

>sunnyday: Cupid Childs, Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Jake Beckley, Quincy Trouppe?

Oh, sorry.

23. Boyer
32. Childs
43. Wynn
44. Beckley
47. Trouppe

It looks to me like Browning is superior to Hamilton in just about every way. Browning even leads in FRAA! Hamilton has 5 more games played, 70 more PAs and 60 more steals.

It's nitpicky, I know. I'm really just glad you saw the light and put The Gladiator back on your ballot. I should stop looking this gift horse in the mouth, I guess.

Sean, your ballot is missing #13.

Oh, hell.

Everybody just moves up one spot, with Frank Howard now getting a vote at #15.

Sorry, tabulators.

I just didn't feel satisfied with "new" ranking system the last couple of "years" so I yet again overhauled it to something that I felt did a better job representing my preference for career value, but still give adequate credit for peak, which I feel had really been missing on my ballot. I am still working giving very generous war credit on deserving players. Was quite suprised that Stargell didn't make #1 on my ballot, and even more suprised when I saw who did.

1. Charley Jones - A BIG suprise for me. How did I miss this guy? He was a major offensive force. He gets a ranking this high even with a league discount. I do give him VERY minor credit for time lost. Not that it matters if I gave him more, he's #1 on my ballot now. He did it all offensively. Hit for power, hit for average, took a walk, simply amazing.

2. Edd Roush - giving him credit for 1930. My new system loves him

3. Willie Stargell - I honestly thought he'd have the #1 spot. Good, real good, just not as good as I always thought.

4. Gavy Cravath - Monster peak, one heck of a player even without giving him credit for years he wasn't in MLB

5. Nellie Fox - Great 2B. Good career value.

6. Orlando Cepeda - Consistency at a high level works well in my system.

7. Cecil Travis - This is of course giving him WWII credit at his pre WWII level of play.

8. Bucky Walters - I didn't like him, then I did, then I didn't again...Welcome back Bucky

9. Tony Oliva - Like Cepeda, not necassarily GREAT but was consistently very good.

10. Don Newcombe - Giving him credit for years lost gives him an outstanding career.

11. Chuck Klein - A little bit of career mixed in with a great peak. Played in a hitters park, and took advantage of it. More power to him.

12. Bobby Veach - I've looked at him many times when I realized he was making my ballot. I thought it had to be a mistake, but here he is. Consistency is key.

13. Jack Quinn - Even with my reworked system, Quinn still makes my ballot.

14. Ernie Lombardi - A discount for his poor defense, but one heck of a hitter.

15. Lefty Gomez - Consistently very very good.

Johnny Pesky
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller
Cupid Childs
Rocky Colavito
Hack Wilson
Quincey Trouppe
Hugh Duffy
Vern Stephens
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
Larry Doyle
Dobie Moore
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning
Tommy Bridges
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Addie Joss
Fred Dunlap
Duke Farrell
Lave Cross
Luis Aparicio
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Stu Miller
Walker Cooper
Norm Cash
Heinie Manush
Catfish Hunter
Mike Marshall
Al Rosen
Ken Boyer
Vic Willis
Herman Long
Deacon McGuire
Ed Williamson
Urban Shocker
Sam Rice
Mike Tiernan
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Pie Traynor
Elston Howard
Mickey Welch - long long fall from many years #1 on my ballot :(
Tommy Henrich
Mickey Vernon
Ed Konetchy
Henry Larkin
Reggie Smith
Gus Weyhing
Jimmy Ryan
Gil Hodges
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Bob Elliot
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Luis Tiant
Tony Mullane
Phil Rizzuto
Claude Passeau
Rabbit Maranville
Dizzy Trout
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
Mel Harder
George Van Haltren
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Jimmy Wynn
Dick Bartell
Lee May
Wally Berger
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Virgil Trucks
Milt Pappas
Jesse Tannehill
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Nap Rucker
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Joe Judge
John Hiller

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Willie Stargell
2. Charley Jones

Stargell appeared in 140 games in only five seasons. But he averaged a 167 OPS+ in those five, and still racked up more career WS than any other position player on the ballot. His career OPS+ is almost identical to Charley Jones, but he has over twice as many plate appearances. Easy #1 pick for me.

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his age 26-30 years. He was the best LF of the 1870s, and one the top 3 outfielders of that decade—and that does NOT include his two blacklisted years of 1881-2, his time in the AA, or the fact that he was born in North Carolina, which may have prevented him from entering baseball at an earlier age (he debuted at age 26 in 1876). I had basically ignored him for years, which was a big mistake on my part. Nice to see him enjoying something of a renaissance.

3. Jake Beckley
4. Dobie Moore

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. Beckley is similar to Minoso: very good defense, not a particularly high peak, but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. Minoso’s peak wasn't much higher (best season 155 OPS+, Beckley’s 152), although it was certainly longer.

Moore is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see why we put Sewell ahead.

5. Jimmy Wynn
6. Vic Willis

Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care. We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

7. Nellie Fox
8. Bob Elliott
9. Ken Boyer

So far we only have five infielders from the 1950s, with no one new on deck. (Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew, but he wasn’t a full-time player until ’59). That is simply too few for the decade. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF; Carew began his career in 1967, so that would be about a fifteen year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

Boyer and Elliott make it back onto my ballot after the early 80s third basemen glut. It’s very hard for me to separate the two in my head. Bob was a little better hitter, Ken a little better at defense, but WS has them with almost identical career values. Elliott was clearly the best 3B of his time, while Boyer was not, so he gets a slight edge. Boyer would also give us another 1950s infielder. Sal Bando, currently at #21, is awfully close to these guys as well, and may soon join them.

10. Bucky Walters
11. Roger Bresnahan

Walters is #1 on four ballots last year; I’m glad to see more interest in him. While I recognize that his 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old. Obviously a terrific hitter as well.

There’s been some good discussion about the appropriateness of balancing eras and positions. Obviously I think it’s a good idea. While I would not vote for somebody whom I felt did not deserve it just to fill a “slot,” it does make me look more closely at players, and I do use it as a tiebreaker. And there some gaps that just seem too large—for example, the twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in the other five years, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. He also would help fill a small gap we have in CF in the early oughts, 1901-5.

12. Gavvy Cravath
13. Dizzy Trout
14. Cupid Childs
15. Frank Howard

Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Similar to Kiner, although Kiner has the higher peak. Ditto Frank Howard, whose 1968-1970 peak lands him the final spot.

We have very few pitchers from the war era, and Trout finished in the top ten ERA+ seven times. Childs returns to my ballot after lurking just off of it for several years. Good luck, John Murphy.

16-20: Tommy Leach, Luis Tiant, Dick Redding, Larry Doyle, Wally Schang

Quincey Trouppe is the only player from last year that is not on my ballot. As catcher hybrids go, I’m more impressed with what Bresnahan did in his time than Trouppe did in his. Still, the comparisons to Joe Torre, who was very high on my ballot, are making me re-think him.

1988 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP or OPS+ adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Willie Stargell {new}
Clearly in the HoM fam-i-lee.
2- Jake Beckley (2) [8]
Best career backlogger on the board, by far.
3- Ken Boyer (3) [5]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader.
4- Cupid Childs (5) [4]
Best 2Bman in the game for much of his career.
5- John McGraw (4) [41]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of pre-expansion 3Bmen. The HoM is short of 1890s infielders.
6- Bucky Walters (6) [17]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
7- George Van Haltren (7) [18]
A career of 380 WS when translated to a full schedule.
8- Bob Johnson (8) [20]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
9- Frank Chance (11) [61]
A great player on great teams.
10- Burleigh Grimes (13) [22]
11- Dick Redding (off) [13]
12- Charlie Keller (14) [12]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him above the OF jumble.
13- Louis Tiant {new}
The pitcher I enjoyed watching (and imitating with my various whiffleball pitches) the most.
I’ve only worked partially through the issues of 1970s glut of great career pitchers, but Tiant seems to come out ahead of Kaat and Sutton and John, which means Loou-iee Loou-iee Loou-iee makes it on this ballot.
14- Jimmy Wynn (9) [7]
On third look, he doesn’t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and how many outfielders do we want to elect?
15- Sal Bando (off) [42]
A little post-season credit gets him on. I thought there would be more support for him.

Bobby Bonds barely misses. So does Reggie Smith. There’s a hopeless jumble of OFers in the 12 to 30 range. I’m arguing with myself about whether to assign Reggie some bonus credit for happening to show up on teams that won a lot.

Dobie Moore is in the top 30; which, considering I’m more of a career voter, is a high complement. Nellie Fox is around 35; he isn’t any different than Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, or Bancroft. I’d rather take Bill Monroe than any of them.

Quincy Trouppe; if most who know the Negro League history were to pool their knowledge, Quincy would come out as no better than the 5th best catcher, behind Gibson, Santop, Campy, and Mackey, maybe Elston Howard if you count him. Do we wish to say that there were as many great NgL catchers as MLB catchers from 1910-1950? I don’t. Another way of saying it would be that Trouppe would make VERY few NgL experts all-time all-star teams; thus, is it wise to elect him to the HoM? Trouppe is at #25 for me, behind Munson and Bresnahan among catchers, about even with Schang.

Reggie Smith is better than Bonds for me but lands in the second 15, not the 15 that get on the ballot.

1. Willie Stargell, of/1b – Fred McGriff’s stats in a MUCH more difficult scoring environment (and McGriff would easily place high on this ballot for me). Pops was the best hitter in the NL for a five year period, which is actually pretty impressive -- and then he had his questionable MVP year 4 years later. Maybe fits into the 3rd quartile of the Hall.

2. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people in the history of the world with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

4. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. Best career pitcher eligible.

5. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

6. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

7. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

9. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

10. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot. Maybe he should be 30 places lower too -- but I just don't know who to put above him.

12. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

14. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

15. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

16. Ken Boyer – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach.

17. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

18. Dobie Moore
19. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence.
20. Dizzy Dean

I really have no faith in my choices after the top 8. I just don't like any of them.

Childs' counting stats don't make it close for me, even with era and position adjustments. I don't see Wynn at all (I have Smith and Bonds ahead of him, as well as Cravath, Arlett, Roush, Duffy and Pinson). Trouppe is my third ranked catcher (Bresnahan, Schang). My top ranked catcher only hits #17.

6- Bucky Walters (6) [17]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.

He did not face strong opponents. A portion of his career value comes during WWII. Not the majority, to be sure, but if anything Walters faced easier-normal-competition, or, at best, average competition when considering the entirety of his career.

Let's take up discussion of that point on the discussion thread

1988 Ballot.

1) WILLIE STARGELL: I wonder how much of him being #1 here is because of the backlog clearing of previous years...

2) CUPID CHILDS: Last chance for him (and Boyer, and Fox) before we shut the backlog doors for a while. I hope he makes it.

3) QUINCY TROUPPE: The more I read about him, the more I´m convinced by him. Because of this, he switches spots with...

4) ALEJANDRO OMS:... about whom I´m not so certain. He was pretty good, though.

5) GAVVY CRAVATH: Yeah, there might be an OF glut in the HOM, but I can´t help but be impressed by him.

6) KEN BOYER: Brooks Robinson with less glove and more peak.

7) CHARLEY JONES: Schedule-adjusting those early years was tricky, but once done, I´ve become a believer.

8) JIMMY WYNN: Reunited with his namesake and close statistical comp...

9) JIMMY RYAN: Better than Van Haltren or Duffy, IMO.

10) TONY LAZZERI: Check out his thread, which makes the comparision to Childs. Sure, Childs was better, but having one on the verge of the Hall of Merit and the other with next to no support is too big a gap. Try as I might, I couldn´t explain this..

11) LUIS TIANT: Pierce-supporters should like him, as he´s similar (but with a lesser peak). However, I wouldn´t be surprised if the HOM in/out line ended up being drawn across the small space that separates them. His support will be tested when the better pitchers of his generation start becoming elegible, starting next "year"

12) BOB JOHNSON: How did he get so far behind Miñoso? He´s on top of a glot of borderline-ish corner outfield candidates in my rankings.

13) JIM FREGOSI: A poorer Sewell/Childs. May become my teddy bear.

14) DOBIE MOORE: Good, but his peak is somewhat overrated IMO. How is he that much better than Fregosi?

15) JAKE BECKLEY: Put me in the middle ground regarding the Beckley debate.

Off ballot. Within each group, players are listed alphabetically. The groups are getting bigger as I start to consider more candidates.

16-22: Roger Bresnahan, Pete Browning, Charlie Keller, Chuck Klein, Johnny Pesky, Cannonball Dick Redding, George Van Haltren (Miñoso would still rank in this group)
23-32: Dave Bancroft, Bobby Bonds, Larry Doyle, Bob Elliott, Lefty Gomez, Ernie Lombardi, Edd Roush, George Scales, Reggie Smith, Pie Traynor
33-42: Sal Bando, Orlando Cepeda, Dizzy Dean, Hugh Duffy, Nellie Fox, Frank Howard, Thurman Munson, Marvin Williams, Ned Williamson, Artie Wilson
43-51: Dick Bartell, Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Bus Clarkson, Burleigh Grimes, John McGraw, Bobby Murcer, Bucky Walters, Wilbur Wood

DISCLOSURES:

Nellie Fox: Considering a popular debate this year, I believe he had enough of a bat advantage over Mazeroski to make up for any glove advantages the Pirate would have (which would have been small, since Fox was pretty good himself). Of course, the very fact that he´s comparable to Mazeroski tells what I think of him.

Edd Roush: I like to compare him to the 1890s crowd of CFers, so I see him similar to Van Haltren. I will revise his case later, if I have time (If the revision jumps him to the ballot, I will say so before voting ends). Regarding extra credit, my first reaction would be that he doesn´t qualify, given that his career was about to end at the time.

Cannonball Dick Redding and Charlie Keller: Were on my ´87 ballot, and they are the victims of a strong class and revisions. Will be on top of my waiting list.

NEWBIES:

Reggie Smith: As said in the discussion thread, he looks a lot like Bobby Bonds to me. It´ll be intriguing to see how exactly does he looks with Japanese MLEs added, but those probably won´t get him into my ballot anytime soon.

Bobby Murcer: A poorer Smith, on the borders of my consideration set.

It looks to me like Browning is superior to Hamilton in just about every way. Browning even leads in FRAA!

...which doesn't say too much about FRAA in this case...

It's nitpicky, I know. I'm really just glad you saw the light and put The Gladiator back on your ballot. I should stop looking this gift horse in the mouth, I guess.

I have to agree, Sean. ;-)

1988 ballot from this highly career voter:

1. Willie Stargell - clearly the best on the ballot
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career
3. Cupid Childs - dominating second baseman during the 1890s
4. George Van Haltren - another deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
5. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
6. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career
7. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career
8. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop
9. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman
10. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
13. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter
14. Luis Aparicio - my career value perspective shows here
15. Reggie Smith - solid disjointed career
-----
16-20. Traynor, Klein, Keller, Charley Jones, Maranville.

Not voting for Trouppe (around 75th). Only other newbie worth
considering is Luis Tiant (around 40th).

1988 Ballot

Kirk Gibson hits the most dramatic home run of my lifetime.

Last year, we elected Billy Pierce (was #1), Orestes Minoso (was #10), and Ralph Kiner (just off-ballot, another selection I'm OK with).

1. Charley Jones - only glaring 19th Cent. omission remaining - the Dick Allen of his era.
2. Willie Stargell - his most productive and his most durable seasons overlap.
3. Wally Schang - his durability was excellent for his era. It's sloppy thinking to compare him head-on to Lombardi or the '70s catchers.
4. Jimmy Wynn - Astrodomed out of several dominant counting-stat seasons.
5. Quincy Trouppe - a similar type of player to Joe Torre.
6. Norm Cash - One Big Year, excellent 1B defense, 139 OPS+.
7. Dick Redding - Can't decide if he's Vic Willis (not enough, IMO) or a bit better than that (and a deserving HoMer).
8. Edd Roush - a comparable and superior player to Richie Ashburn.
9. Rabbit Maranville - loads and loads of career value.
10. Ken Boyer - Strong eight-year prime, but little else.
11. Thurmon Munson - excellent offensive value for a catcher. Not far below Bill Freehan.
12. Nellie Fox - Great defense, long career, slightly more offensive value than Mazeroski.
13. Orlando Cepeda - Stretch McCovey's onetime teammate could also rake.
14. Jake Beckley - sneaks back onto the tail end of my ballot.
15. Pete Browning - a pure hitter of the first order.

16-20: Bonds, Tiant, E. Howard, Bridges, Easter.
21-25: Luque, Bresnahan, Bob Johnson, Rizzuto, Brock.

I really don't think Cupid Childs is a HoMer. Then again, I soured on Hughie Jennings's candidacy too. I guess I'm not convinced that the 1890's NL was as strong as the collective wisdom indicates.

1988

1. Bucky Walters:
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. He was having a great peak before WW2. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it.

2. Quincy Trouppe:
Best catcher available. Too bad we can’t find more consensus on this guy. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

3. Charley Jones:
Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices all because he wanted to get paid. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

4. Wilbur Cooper:
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

5. Cupid Childs:
Best second baseman available. Shaped like a hydrant, hit like a monster with some indication that park killed power. Absolutely dominant at his position throughout the 1890s.

6. Sal Bando:
There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that
a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

7. Nellie Fox:
Yeah, this one’s surprised me too. He’s been remarkably close to my ballot for a while, but I never would have dreamed he’d have sniffed it. But the truth be told, I’ve been ignoring him a bit because I have a tendency to prefer “my kind of player” and Fox isn’t that kind of player. But truth be told, he’s the second-best 2B on the ballot, and he’s not very far behind Cupid, and he’s among the top 15 2Bs we’ve seen so far. Those are excellent credentials. He also exhibits good positional dominance and was a many-time All-Star type player. He wouldn’t be the HOM’s best player, but he’s a very good selection.

8. Edd Roush:
I just don’t exactly know what to think about the third-tier CFs except that I’m finding Roush creeping upwards lately. Roush, Duffy, Ryan, Van H., Wynn. They are so friggin’ close. And my current system and my Keltner-based system don’t agree on the order in each instance. But I’m coming to rely more on the Keltner-type system and it’s support of candidates who exhibit a lot of dominance over league and position. Roush was ever so slightly more dominant than Duffy, so I’d like to give him the nod. Though, in fairness, I think that Duffy had slightly better positional peers. Roush battled Max Carey with a little Dode Paskert and Lloyd Waner tossed in too. Duffy had Ryan, VH, Hamilton, and Griffin in CF, plus some fine players at the corners when he played there. Mike W., you owe me a few favors now... ; )

9. Larry Doyle:
I’m coming around on him. The dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

10. Hugh Duffy:
His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Wynn gang.

11. Bobby Bonds:
Off ballot last week. This week, I re-examined him somewhat. He’s a strong peak/prime guy with a stretch where he’s the best player in his league as well as a slightly longer stretch of positional dominance. Several MVP type seasons, plenty of All-Star type years.

12. Tommy Leach:
Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

13 . Pete Browning:
Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs.

14. Elston Howard:
Best catcher on the board...no. Best black catcher on the board...no. Best multi-position catcher on the board...no. Best catcher who played in the NgL on the board...No. OK, he's just real good, OK? Great peak, best catcher in AL for a few years running, MVP caliber seasons, all good stuff. He’s been on and off my ballot. This week on.

15. Willie Stargell:
Like with Billy Williams previously, I’m not opposed to him, but I don’t think the queue starts with him. He’s a lower-rung HOMer at a loaded position, who either wasn’t very durable in-season or was platooned a lot, and so didn’t exhibit the levels of dominance over his league and his positions that I find appealing. In his favor, he was a frequent all-star by my reckoning and played well for a decently long time after passing his prime. He owes his on-ballot position to my total inability to choose someone, anyone else that seemed better than him. After dropping Mullane and Bresnahan off the end and promoting Bonds, I was left with, essentially, Stargell, Ryan, Willis, Burns. With Stargell directly behind Burns in my initial rankings, I felt that league-quality issues probably did make enough of a difference to merit a bump for Pops, meanwhile, I’m suspicious of the big glob of CFs from the 1890s and find Willis’s jeckyll/hyde act tough to swallow at times. So off they go and on goes Stargell.

NEW GUYS

Luis Tiant:
I ranked the 15 SP who got votes last time around along with Tiant in a few categories. Most important were the three-year moving Cy Young Percentage Average (the same average I also use for hitters and call MVP percentage) and a simple reckoning of Cy Young type seasons. Tiant had one CY year, and two near-CY year. He was the best hurler in his league for a three-year period once and a near-leader once. On the whole he’s fifth best among the 16 guys for the CY% and 11th in CY type sesaons. I’m not terribly impressed by that, especially when Walters and Cooper finish 1-2 in both. Only two pitchers are on my ballot this year, and the fact that only 16 are likely to get votes at all this year tells you that the starting pitcher backlog just isn’t as deep as the hitter backlog and has, perhaps been thinned substantially in recent years. I don’t think that Tiant has any compelling reason to escape it quite yet.

Sparky Lyle:
The first of many fun relief moustaches.

Reggie Smith:
Just misses as a RF and a CF. Lots of productive years, but peak/prime too low for my tastes. I don’t think he could have enough Japan credit to make up for the peak issues. Wynn’s not on my ballot either.

Bobby Murcer:
Fab peak puts him in same class as Smith but with much different career shape. Needed more prime/career to dent my ballot.

Lee May:
Lee May and Lee Maye combined for 348 Win Shares. How do they rank among players with homophonic or identical names who were not related to one another? Here’s a few:

The Franks Thomas 553
The Joes Morgan 515
The Georges Burns 490
The Dutches Leonard 393
The Elmers Smith 385
The Three Bob Johnsons 380
The Lees May(e) 348
The Three Joe Kell(e)ys 332
The Bobs Gibson 331
The Randys Johnson 328
The Luises Gonzalez 320
The Bernies Williams 312
The Jack Taylors 312
The Mikes Kelly 290
The Roys Thomas 285
The Brians Giles 273
The Mikes Marshall 259
The Pedro Martinezes 258
The Mikes Griffin 252
The Kevins Brown 244
The Three Dave Roberts 237
The Toms Brown 219
The Johns Anderson 210
The Alexes Gonzalez 198
The Three Franks Smith 196
The Socks Seybold/Seibold 191
The Three Dave Johnsons 188
The Pats Kelly 175
The Gregs Harris 163
The Woodies Williams 142
The Three Billy Taylors 132
The Jims Devlin 126
The Roys Johnson 123
The Mike Stantons 123
The Kens Johnson 105
The Ernies Johnson 100
The Eds Sprague 98
The Larrys Anderson(en) 88

I can’t think of any more important ones, but admittedly, I’m not racking my brain. Can anyone add any good ones?

RETURNING TOP TENS

Dobie Moore:
I really like Dobie Moore. The current thinking shows him as a super valuable player. But I don’t yet see enough to push him up into my electable area. I’m inclined to give him more credit during the Wreckers years than he’s getting because he truly hit the ground running in 1920. I suspect he was better than a rising talent on the Wreckers, that he had left 3B quite early in the Wreckers’ era, and that quite possibly he was quickly the team’s top player as a hard-hitting shortstop. Too bad I can’t prove it.

Boyer:
I had him 15 two weeks ago, I backed off again this week just a bit. He’s not far at all from my ballot, but I have reservations about him. I see the Brooks’ prime v. Ken’s prime argument as probably true, but he also wasn’t the best 3B of his era in his league. Yet he had stiffer competition than either Brooks or Bando. But he was also never able to bubble up to the best very often in part because he rarely put together MVP-type seasons…only one that my WS-centric world sees. Furthermore, as you all know, I don’t really trust WARP’s fielding stuff so much, so I’m hard-pressed to accept him as a glove-first third baseman with hitting.

Redding:
As I’ve noted previously, I’m very unsure about Redding. I felt very sure about Mendez, but I’ve always had trouble with Cannonball.

Wynn:
Wynn never dominated his league like they did, and that’s pretty much the difference. And they played in a very strongly concentrated league too. Like with Stargell, I don’t have any great opposition to his probable election, but I don’t feel compelled to vote for him either.

Beckley:
No matter how much I tried to argue against him, I kept screwing up the argument. Well, that’s life, and sometimes life is frustrating. Nonetheless, neither my interval-based system or my newer keltner-based system sees strong reasons for him to join the HOM. To his credit, he’s a frequent all-star (at a weak position for his era), and he’s rather frequently the best player at his position over three-year groups of seasons. But in fact the new system also never sees him as the league’s best player in any three-year block, never sees any MVP-type seasons, and sees any team with him reasonably described as its best position player winning the pennant under 5% of the time. Yuck.

Not an important one, but how do the two Alex Gonzalezes do?

[Ardo] Kirk Gibson hits the most dramatic home run of my lifetime.

Hasn't happened yet. The most recent World Series was Cardinals/Twins.

Maz.

The Alexes Gonzalez are 198.

1988 ballot. Last year elected one off the ballot and two that were down lower. Stargell gets a nod, Reggie Smith grades out well, and others get the once over. System uses WS, WARP, OPS+, comtemporary opinion, just a boatload of information.

1. Willie Stargell (-). Pulled off a rare feat in winning the Hutch, Lou Gehrig, Babe Ruth and Roberto Clemente awards during his career. Oh, and he could play ball a little as well. 1971-75 was high quality work.

2. Dick Redding (1). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years.

3. Norm Cash (3). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things.

4. Tommy Leach (4). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

5. Ken Boyer (5). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. The minor league credit argument is interesting since he was a pitcher part of the time down on the farm.

6. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it. Having him this high shows how we’ve swam into the shallow end of the eligibles.

7. Tony Mullane (7). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

8. Dobie Moore (8). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

9. Reggie Smith (-). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

10. Roger Bresnahan (9). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

11. Cupid Childs (10). Get in the wayback machine and going to the 19th century for this second sacker. Was the best at his position for awhile, played at a time where it was difficult on middle infielders.

12. Jimmy Wynn (11). There’s a peak there to consider – just didn’t put it all in one straight stretch. The Toy Cannon made many a Houston fan happy during the 60s and 70s.

13. Bob Johnson (13). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

14. Bucky Walters (14). We’ve got a case of the peaks with this man. Another multidimensional pitcher in the mold of a Wes Ferrell, just not as good. Started pitching career on some bad Phillie teams

15. Charley Jones (22). Yes, I do adjust for his blacklisted time. His skill on the field led to him being elite for his time. Good fielder, tremendous hitter, worth a glance.

16-20: Ryan, Mays, Oms, Browning, Poles
21-25: Bancroft, Welch, Byrd, Munson, Rizzuto
26-30: Easter, Willis, Shocker, Bartell, Duffy
31-35: Tiant, Beckley, Joss, Keller, Ben Taylor
36-40: Grimes, Schang, Brock, Lombardi, Luque
41-45: Bridges, Trouppe, Cicotte, Evers, Trout
46-50: Cross, Elliott, Roush, Wilbur Cooper, Dean

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Beckley(#32), Trouppe(#42), Roush(#48), Keller (#34). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. Played forever, wasn’t elite but not Candy LaChance as some folks seem to envision. Trouppe has some major team movement hindering him that I’ve tried to account for. Still falls behind other catchers. Roush is CF clutter like so many others – I’m for the new breed instead of the old guard on this one. Keller has an excellent peak but not historic. I give some WWII and MiL credit but still his career lacks some body that you eventually need when differences in players are razor-thin. Fox is the one I’d have the most problem with but go on and elect him.

New guys: Stargell and Smith are seen in the top 15. Tiant is in the mix but has time to stew at #31. We’ll see how the rest of the 70s players shake out. Murcer, two years does not make a candidate.

50. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: October 26, 2006 at 10:31 AM (#2224867)
The Alexes Gonzalez are 198.

Thanks, Eric. Were they always on the list or did you edit them in?

Chris, they were always there, but I don't mind repeating myself. : )

1988 Ballot

Pops and Sisler make my PHOM this year. On deck it is a virtually tie between Gavvy Cravath, Jose Mendez, and Dizzy Dean. However, they will have to wait for a bit as we have some big names coming up in the years ahead.

1. Charlie Keller (1, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

2. Cupid Childs (2, PHOM) – I am pretty sure that Childs has been in my top five every year since sometime in the 1940’s. He had a great peak and decent career length for a MIer of his era. Best 2B of the 19th century in my opinion.

3. Hugh Duffy (3, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

4. Dick Redding (4, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

5. Dobie Moore (6, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he was more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM.

6. Willie Stargell (x, PHOM) – In some ways I am glad that Doc put him where he did as I will definitely be lower than the electorate here. I see Stargell as inferior to Kaline and Williams, not to mention McCovey, so he goes right about here. I could have him below Walters.

7. Bucky Walters (7, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

8. Jimmy Wynn (8, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 25. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

9. Pete Browning (9, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me.

10. Quincey Trouppe (10, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Mackey was.

11. Elston Howard (11, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

12. Ken Boyer (12, PHOM) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very, very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#29) or Rosen (#17), but he was better.

13. Gavvy Cravath (14) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

14. Dizzy Dean (13) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

15. Al Rosen (15) – Only the third time he has been on my ballot, he doesn’t get many votes, from me or from any one else. However, he has a great peak and some MiL credit to help with his career. He has consistently been just off my ballot and is very close to the next few players after him. If I went only by his peak he would be higher, but there are other concerns.


16-20 Oms, GVH, Bresnahan, Fox, Berger
21-25 F. Howard, Doyle, McGraw, Willis, Shocker
26-30 Roush, Newcombe, Rizzuto, C. Jones, Bando,
31-35 Elliot, Tiant, Cepeda, Burns, Chance,
36-40 Munson, Veach, Lundy, Wilson, Bancroft,
41-45 R. ThomasMonroe, Leach, Ryan, Klein,
46-50 Stephens, Johnson, Cicotte, Traynor

Required Disclosures:
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#19) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Newbies:

Smith – I just don’t really get the interest at all. I guess it comes from a long pretty productive career (I have him with 325 WS and 12 seasons above average). But he has no peak at all, I prefer Papa Bonds.

Tiant – In some ways his placing (#31) could be interpreted as me taking a wait and see approach. I am not sure he was one of the ten best pitchers of his era and while it was a very strong era for pitching, I am skeptical about placing him very high. Right now I have him below Newcombe and with era adjustment for IP I am actually very comfortable with that. I think electing him early would be a big mistake.

53. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: October 26, 2006 at 01:51 PM (#2225080)
Chris, they were always there, but I don't mind repeating myself. : )

Thanks again. I'm just blind, I guess.

The Ken Griffeys?

The Ken Griffeys?

He had made the distinction that the players were not related.

How about the 2 Charl(ey/ie) Jones at 201 and four Bob Millers at 164.

Don't forget the ever famous Bill Butlers. That 9 game career in 1884 may really help put them over the top ;)

1988 Ballot

The 1987 electees all were on my ballot, but not near the top, so there’s some movement. 1988 brings us a solid class, with three candidates—Stargell, Tiant, and Reggie Smith— breaking into my top 30.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

Since 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Willie Stargell (n/e) % = 1.1072. One of Pittsburgh’s most loved sports stars, his HoM resumé is weakened by his lack of in-season durability. But he was a great hitter with a long career, probably the top power hitter in the major leagues in the first half of the 1970s. He easily overmatches the backlog.
2. Quincy Trouppe. (2). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
3. Edd Roush. (3). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
4. Charlie Keller (4). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
5. Dave Bancroft (6). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
6. Alejandro Oms. (8) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
7. Tommy Leach. (9). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
8. Cupid Childs (14). % = 1.00. Dominance at his best plus positional balance considerations put Childs at the top of the borderline candidates in my system. His sudden decline also makes more sense now that we know that malaria was a factor. Drink may have been as well, of course.
9. Jimmy Wynn (10). % = 1.0386. I was overrating him a bit, not sure why.
10. Jake Beckley (12). % = 1.0250. Gradually rising as the backlog clears.
11. Rabbit Maranville (1) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
12. Luis Tiant (n/e). % = 1.0229. Best pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Much better than Hunter and Lolich. I wouldn’t elect him now, but I think he should join the upper backlog.
13. Ken Boyer (15). % = 1.00. Ranks ahead of Norm Cash among 1960s borderliners on league-strength considerations. Positional considerations move him ahead of Bus Clarkson and Charley Jones.
14. Bus Clarkson (16). % = 1.00. Makes my ballot for the first time. Positional balance considerations drop him slightly below his near-equivalents, Childs and Boyer.
15. Charley Jones (17). % = 1.00. Downgrading of long-career, high-defense shortstops brings him onto my ballot for the first time in three quarters of a century.

1988 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Bobby Bonds (18) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak. Has an argument to rank higher, but with half of my ballot occupied by outfielders, I decided to be a touch conservative with Bonds to start.
17. Norm Cash. (19) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer and Bonds on league-strength considerations.
18. Gavvy Cravath (20). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked.
19. Joe Tinker (23). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with ony 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
20. Nellie Fox (21). % = 1.00. I support his eventual election, but I see him as the very weakest “should elect” infielder now eligible. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Boyer and Childs have to offer, and they just barely make my ballot.
21. Herman Long (13). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
22. Bob Johnson (22). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
23. Dom Dimaggio (24). % = 1.00. Likewise
24. Jimmy Ryan (25). % = 1.00. Likewise
25. Dick Redding (26). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

26. Reggie Smith % = .9923. Just below my all-time in-out line. He was an all-star caliber player for a long time, but didn’t have any MVP-level years, and didn’t have an extraordinarily long career. This ranking does not include credit for play in Japan, which could move him up ahead of Bob Johnson. Bobby Bonds was more of an impact player during his peak, I think.
27. Bill Monroe .9922
28. Don Newcombe .9886
29. Urban Shocker .9867
30. Burleigh Grimes .9845
31. George Burns .9879
32. Willie Davis .9896
33. Mike Griffin .9791
34. Johnny Evers .9779
35. Fielder Jones .9778
36. Lave Cross .9709
37. Hugh Duffy .9686
38. Johnny Pesky .9676
39. Ben Taylor .9667
40. Cy Seymour .9665
41. Dick Bartell .9653
42. George Van Haltren .9538
43. Larry Doyle .9614
44. Bobby Veach .9609
45. Buzz Arlett .9602
46. Vada Pinson .9599
47. Leroy Matlock .9544
48. Tommy Bond .9511


Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #21 above

Dick Redding. See #26 above.

Dobie Moore. He misses my ballot, and my top 50, because I don’t find his peak to be so outstanding that it counterbalances his lack of career.


New Arrivals worthy of note.

Bobby Murcer. A couple of great years then a lot of good-to-very good. He’s not in my top 100 eligible.

Sparky Lyle. Another fine relief pitcher from the 1970s, but not quite as good as Marshall or Hiller among relievers now eligible. His peak just doesn’t match theirs, and he wasn’t any more effective overall. Also outside the top 100.

Lee May. Hit an impressive number of home runs for his era, but that’s about the extent of his credentials.

1988 ballot
the year of the Pirate
Stargell, and Phillippe make my PHOM this year

1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Ralph Kiner 7 HR titles (made my personal HoM in 1961)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
15. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
16. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
17. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
18. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
19. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
20. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
21. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
22. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
23. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
24. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
25. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
26. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
27. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
29. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
30. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
31. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
32. Willie Stargell a poor mans Willie McCovvey (makes my pHoM this year)
33. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
34. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
35. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
36. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
37. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
38. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
39. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (makes my pHoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Minnie Minoso would have been on my ballot with the addition of a few good seasons which his Negroe League stats seem to show he lacked
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Billy Pierce not good enough long enough
Cupid Childs is in my top 100
Jimmy Wynn’s home road splits for walks 645 at home and 579 on the road I don’t see any case for his being in the HoM

Cleaned out my comments as promised. I have an unexpected trip to take or they would be more itneresting. Good luck to all HOM candidates in 1988.

1988 Ballot

1. Willie Stargell (ne) -- Amazing when healthy. Hampered with in-season durability problems for much of his career. His 71-74 peak is first rate.
2. Larry Doyle (1) -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
3. Cupid Childs (2) -- Great high-OBP 2B of the 1890s.
4. John McGraw (3) -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
5. Gavvy Cravath (6) -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
6. Charley Jones (7) -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
7. Dick Redding (8) -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
8. Roger Bresnahan (9) -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Charlie Keller (10) -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
10. Al Rosen (11) -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
11. Pete Browning (12) -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
12. Bob Elliott (13) -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
13. Frank Chance (14) -- Great high OBP 1B of the dead ball era.
14. Edd Roush (15) -- Great hitting CF-er of the 1910 & 20s.
15. Mickey Welch (nr) -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
16-20. Lombardi, BJohnson, Fox, Beckley, DMoore
21-25. Trouppe, FHoward, Cash, Bando, Leach
26-30. JWynn, Cepeda, Brock, KBoyer,

yest - please remove last year's electee's from your ballot (Minoso, Kiner and Pierce)

yest:

1. Kiner has been elected.

2. Just out of curiosity--Stargell ranks behind Ginger Beaumont and Stuffy McInnis and Mario Mendoza?

updated 1988 ballot
the year of the Pirate
Stargell, and Philippe make my PHOM this year

1. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
2. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
3. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
4. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
5. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
6. Sam Rice if he got 13 more hits would he make the HoM? (made my personal HoM in 1940)
7. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
8. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
9. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
10. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
11. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
12. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
13. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
14. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
15. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
16. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
17. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
18. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
19. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
20. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
21. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
22. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
23. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
24. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
25. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
26. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
27. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
28. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
29. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
30. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
31. Willie Stargell a poor mans Willie McCovvey (makes my pHoM this year)
32. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
33. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
34. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
35. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
36. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
37. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
38. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
39. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (makes my pHoM this year)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Cupid Childs is in my top 100
Jimmy Wynn’s home road splits for walks 645 at home and 579 on the road I don’t see any case for his being in the HoM

I don't often comment on ballot construction, but it is striking that on yest's ballot Willie Stargell is ranked as the fifth-best eligible Pirate, behind Traynor, Mazeroski, Cuyler, and Lloyd Waner. I doubt you could find five people in the city of Pittsburgh who would agree with that.

I don't often comment on ballot construction, but it is striking that on yest's ballot Willie Stargell is ranked as the SIXTH-best eligible Pirate, behind Traynor, Mazeroski, Cuyler, GINGER BEAUMONT and Lloyd Waner. I doubt you could find TWO people in the STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA who would agree with that.

FIXED it for you Chris. :)

You could even say I am wrong too because Roy Thomas played 102 in Pittsburgh, and GVH played 137 games there too. Oh, and Chuck Klein did an 85 game stretch there too. And Browning had 50 games as a Pirate.

So Pops barely scrapes into the top 10.

If Maranville and Phillippe were a hair better he wouldn't even be top 10.

And yest doens't even like the two Pirates on my ballot, Leach and Elliot.

PS Stuffy McInnis finsihed his career in the Steel City.

A question for Nellie Fox's supporters: how would it make you feel if Fox were elected this year, and the vote that made the margin of difference was yest's?

For all of his difference's to everyone else, yest's vote counts just like the rest of us. That's democracy, no?

>A question for Nellie Fox's supporters: how would it make you feel if Fox were elected this year, and the vote that made the margin of difference was yest's?

Cupid Childs has 5 #2 votes, which to me is a more fanciful vote than Nellie Fox at #2. If Fox can beat that, it won't be any one voter who elected him.

I'm looking forward to when the greatest third baseman of all-time loses out on a unanimous vote because his (unadjusted) BA is lower than Pie Traynor's (despite the only important offensive category Pie ever led in was triples - once). :-0

You mean George Kell?

You mean George Kell?

That would be 10 times worse than Pie (whom I do like and have on my ballot).

1) Willie Stargell- Certainly not inner circle, but darn good, despite durabilty issues.
2) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
3) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
4) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
5) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
6) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
7) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
8) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
9) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
10) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
11) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
12) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
13) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.
14) Ken Boyer - MVP. 7 all star games.
15) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.


no soup for...

16) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
17) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
18) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
19) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
20) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
21) Orlando Cepeda-
22) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
23) Cupid Childs – Short career, not much black or grey ink.
24) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
25) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
26) Reggie Smith &
27) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons...
28) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the ten catchers (up to 1988)

Luis Tiant is in the 40's, Bobby Murcer (despite being my favorite player growing up) is in the 70's, and Sparky Lyle isn't even top 100.

A question for Nellie Fox's supporters: how would it make you feel if Fox were elected this year, and the vote that made the margin of difference was yest's?

Well, we can't really tell the difference between the 230th and 231st greatest players in baseball history anyhow...at the edge there is going to essentially be some randomness determining who is in and who is out. If Fox is close enough that yest's vote pushes him over the edge, so be it. Whether Fox ends up in or out, we've clearly determined that he's close to the border.

Yeah, I have Fox near the top of my ballot, and for whatever the rationale, I have no problem with someone else putting him there, too (I have Fox-Childs 2-3 behind Stargell, and would say the same of course if it was a Childs vote...

A question for Nellie Fox's supporters: how would it make you feel if Fox were elected this year, and the vote that made the margin of difference was yest's?

fine by me, but his consensus score might go up....

1988 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.


1) Willie Stargell
Easy choice for #1 in my book. Among all-time players eligible thus far I’ve got him in Medwick/Killebrew territory.

2) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

3) Dick Redding
I don’t think the new HoF data is enough to discredit his legitimacy as one of the top eligible pitchers (yet).

4) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

5) Bob Johnson
100 WARP3, 287 WS for career plus Minor League credit makes him a legit HoM candidate.

6) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

7) Quincy Trouppe
Best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

8) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5. Balancing the two lands George right in the middle of my ballot.

9) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone, I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous. Debuting on the lower half of the ballot, but certainly worth some serious consideration for election.

10) Ken Boyer
50.5 WARP3 in top 5 seasons is around what I would guess the average HoMer gets. Plus 99.4 WARP3 and 279 WS are solid career totals.

11) Dizzy Trout
Nice 5 year peak: 48.6 WARP3, 126 Win Shares
Decent career (though total Win Shares seem a little low): 87.9 WARP3, 228 Win Shares

12) Bill Monroe
Probably in the Doerr-Gordon 2B range…cautiously ranked a little lower.

13) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1).

14) Gavy Cravath
I’ve been pretty generous with MiL credit, which helps Gavy get on the ballot.

15) Dobie Moore
I rank him as significantly better than Hughie Jennings, but not exactly a shoe-in for future enshrinement.



The Rest of the Top 50
16) Charlie Keller—Just nudged of the ballot this year.
17) Charley Jones
18) Sam Rice
19) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.
20) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back.
21) Tommy Leach
22) Rabbit Maranville
23) Burleigh Grimes
24) Jack Quinn
25) Norm Cash
26) Reggie Smith
27) Buzz Arlett
28) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind Keller, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.
29) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
30) Bob Elliot
31) Harry Hooper
32) Vada Pinson
33) Phil Rizzuto
34) Alejandro Oms
35) Hugh Duffy
36) Orlando Cepeda
37) Bus Clarkson
38) Lou Brock
39) Vern Stephens
40) Dom DiMaggio
41) Spot Poles
42) Gil Hodges
43) Cy Seymour
44) Fielder Jones
45) Johnny Pesky
46) George Burns
47) Mickey Vernon
48) Dave Bancroft
49) Dolph Luque
50) Cupid Childs—He’s still hanging around in the top 50 and he’d not far from the top 30.

50) Cupid Childs—He’s still hanging around in the top 50 and <b>he’s<b> not far from the top 30.

Jeez?! One more time, let's see if I can get that right: ...he’s not far from the top 30.

1988 Ballot:

1. Willie Stargell – I was surprised how poorly he did in my system. Ranks below the other second-tier corner outfielders and first basemen of his era—I have them ranked McCovey-Clemente-Williams-Killebrew-Kaline-Stargell. Fortunately for Pops, he’s up against a very weak backlog field. (PHoM 1988)

2. Hugh Duffy – Great defensive outfielder; good hitter; 5 pennants. (PHoM 1931)

3. Phil Rizzuto – Great defense; hit well for a shortstop; ages 25-27 in military service. (PHoM 1967)

4. Bobby Bonds – (PHoM 1987)
5. Jimmy Wynn – (PHoM 1985)
6. Alejandro Oms – (PHoM 1967)
A threesome of similar outfielders, multi-tool players who could help you with both offense and defense. I’m not a fan of one-dimensional players.

7. Dobie Moore – Among the short career, high peak candidates, I think his is the best case. (PHoM 1986)

8. Nellie Fox – Contributed with both the glove and the bat over a fairly long career. 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. (PHoM 1979)

9. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 121 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

10. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

11. Mickey Welch – Over 7 seasons (1880, 84-85, 87-90) he averaged 30-17, 4.3 wins above team, 437 IP, 119 DERA+. (PHoM 1966)

12. Sal Bando – See my comparison of Bando and Childs. Edges Boyer with hitting. (PHoM 1987)

13. Elston Howard – Best eligible catcher. (PHoM 1977)

14. Gavy Cravath – Best pure hitter on the ballot. (PHoM 1976)

15. Dick Redding – Playing during a poorly documented era, my rating is based as much on his reputation as on his statistics. (PHoM 1976)

Near misses:

16–20. Boyer (PHoM 1975), Grimes (PHoM 1940), Keller, F Howard, Bresnahan
21–25. Van Haltren, Newcombe, Cepeda, Brock, Childs
26–30. Leach (PHoM 1932), R Smith, Arlett, Easter, Willis

Other consensus top 10:

Cupid Childs – I’ve moved him up with my reevaluation (# 25), but I still don’t comprehend why the majority of voters think he’s one of the 15 best candidates. I think he belongs behind Fox, Bando, and Boyer.

Ken Boyer - # 16.

Jake Beckley – So now we know it wasn’t fielding bunts. What exactly were the undocumented fielding responsibilities that his supporters tout? Why is it so hard to accept the possibility that he was just a slightly above average first baseman who happened to play during an era when there was a dearth of hitters at first base?

Quincy Trouppe – With little information available on his fielding skills, I don’t see how to distinguish him from catchers like Schang and Lombardi, who were good with the stick but not impressive defensively. I’ve ranked him behind Elston Howard, whose defensive excellence was clear.

Other new arrivals:

Reggie Smith # 27
Bobbie Murcer # 50
Luis Tiant # 55 –
All were very good players who fall just a little bit short.

Used to be Kelly in SD

1988 Ballot: A lot of movement at the bottom of my ballot, numbers 29-60. Moving up: Newcombe, Elliott, Cepeda, Berger, Boyer, Tiernan, and McGraw. Moving down: Cash, Van Haltren. Further exam

To recap my balloting:
I consider prime/peak/per year/ and career and in that order.
Career totals adjusted for season length, WWI and II, minor leagues (rare), and blacklisting. Peak totals - 3 straight years for hitters and a 50/50 combo of 3 straight and best any 3 years for pitchers. Prime totals - best any 7 years. Seasonal average - per 648 PA for hitters and 275 innings for pitchers. Bonus for being a league all-star by STATS or Win Shares. Bonus for being the best pitcher in a league. Positional bonus for catcher. These numbers are weighted, combined and compared to theoretical maximums. Pitchers are adjusted for changes in the game (Pre 60', pre-Lively Ball, and current.) I try to have a fair mix of positions and time periods on my ballots. I consider place within decade as well.

PHOM: 1988: Willie Stargell, Orestes Minoso
PHOM: 1987: Roger Bresnahan, Larry Doyle, Joe Torre
PHOM: 1986: Willie McCovey and Early Wynn
PHOM: 1985: Frank Chance, Wilbur Cooper, and Ralph Kiner
PHOM: 1984: Billy Williams and Jimmy Wynn
PHOM: 1983: Bill Freehan and Brooks Robinson
PHOM: 1982: Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson
PHOM: 1981: Bob Gibson and Harmon Killebrew
PHOM: 1980: Al Kaline, Juan Marichal, and Ron Santo
PHOM: 1979: Willie Mays and Gavy Cravath

1. Mickey Welch (PHOM 1901): The weight of the evidence.

2. Charley Jones (PHOM 1906): The weight of the evidence. A top 10 position player from 1876 to 1885. Please see the Keltner List on his thread. All-time, through 1980, Jones ranks in a knot of five left fielders between 8th and 12th all-time. The other four are Simmons, Clarke, Stovey, and Magee.
Top 10 position player in 1876, 1878, 1879, 1883, 1884, 1885. Eleventh in 1877. Pro-rated 10th or 11th after blacklisted in 1880. Blacklisted in 1881 and 1882. Best player in 1884, top 4 in 1878, 1879 and 1885.

3. Pete Browning (PHOM 1921): Hitter. Ranks at the top of a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Duffy is not. Top 10 position player in 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1887, and 1890. Best in 1882 and 1885. League ranks, 1st, 4th, 5th, 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

4. Charlie Keller (PHOM 1957): MVP level play for 6 straight years with 1.66 years of War credit. Only DiMaggio, Williams, and Musial were better in the 1940s before he hurt his back. I have him as the 13th best left fielder through 1979. Top 10 position player in AL in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, and 1946. If you pro-rate his 1945 season, he is top 10 that year also. Ranks: 10th, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th. 1945 pro-rated he comes out the best position player along with Greenberg.

5. Quincy Troupe (PHOM 1960): A great hitting catcher whose nomadic career has done wonders to hide his value. I ask the many voters who trust the MLEs of elected or balloted NeLers to look again at Troupe. 10th best catcher of all time as of 1980.

6. Hugh Duffy (PHOM 1919): A key member of the best team of the 1890s. Please see the Keltner List for him. I need to post that to the Duffy thread soon. Ranks in a group of 5 center fielders between 13th and 17th all-time. Doby, Hill, and Brown are in the HoM, Browning is not. Top 10 in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, 1894, and 1897. 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 1st, and 8th. 11th in 1895.

7. Bucky Walters (PHOM 1958): Best peak available (tied with Dean) among eligible white pitchers. Best NL pitcher in 1939, 1940, and 1944. 2nd in NL by a hair in 1941. Best in Majors in 1939, top 4 in other 3 years.

8. Willie Stargell (PHOM 1988): Not as impressed as most voters. The lack of playing time in many seasons causes him to rank lower than I thought he would. Only 6 years with at least 140 games played including 2 at 140 and none over 148. He has great rate stats in most every year, just not the playing time. Still makes my ballot and an easy first ballot PHOMer this year.
Top 10 in league (62-68) top 15 (69- ): 1966, 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974.
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/19th t, 11th t/19th t, 2nd/3rd, 8th t/15th t, 2nd/2nd, 5th/9th

9. Cupid Childs (PHOM 1932): Best second baseman of 1890s and its not close. 11th all-time among second basemen. Top 10 position player in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1893, and 1896. 1st in AA, 9th, 2nd, 8th, and 7th in NL.
Best in league/majors at second in 1890, 1891 (t), 1892, 1893, 1894(t), 1895, 1896

10. Tommy Leach (PHOM 1966): Great defense. Good hitting at two key defensive positions. A key player in one of the best defensive teams ever. 9th best third baseman if all credit for career is at third, 24th best center fielder if all credit is at CF. Split the difference and he is about even with Hack and Sutton (w/o NA credit).
Top 10 in league in 1902, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1909, 1913, 1914. Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 14th in 1903 but 9 are outfielders, 6th t/16th t, 3rd t/7th t, 4th/9th, 7th/11th, 4th t/12th t, 4th/9th.
Best in league at 3rd: 1902, 1903, 1904. Best in majors: 1902.
Top 3 in league in outfield: 1907, 1913, 1914. 4th by one WS in 1909.

11. Gavy Cravath (PHOM 1979): Credit for 1909, 1910, 1911. All players, All times. All-Star 5 times by STATS and Win Shares. Top ten position player in NL in 1913 - 1917. 1st, 3rd, 1st, 6th, 7th. A top 10 player in either league from 1909-1911 while with Minneapolis.

12. Vic Willis (PHOM 1942): Take another look. 4 times one of the top 2 pitchers in the National League. Best in NL in 1899 and 1901, 2nd in 1902 and 1906.

13. Dobie Moore (PHOM 1967): Banks before Banks. My system finds them quite comparable. In a knot between 11th and 15th among shortstops through 1980 with Glasscock, Reese, Banks, and Jennings – all HoMers. Best SS, if in majors, in 1920, 1921, 1922, 1924, and 1925.

14. Jimmy Wynn (PHOM 1984): 4 times a top 6 player in the stronger NL, 4 times top 7 in majors. Best centerfielder eligible from Mays until ... Dale Murphy? Five years after Griffey, Jr. retires? Top 10 in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, and 1974. 9th, 3rd, 4th, 11th, 6th, 4th.

15. George Burns (PHOM 1938): Best leadoff hitter of the 1910s NL. Overlooked. Top 10 in NL in 1913, 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920. Rank in league/majors: 8th/20, 1st/4th, 7th/13th, 9th/17th, 3rd/5th, 3rd/8th, 2nd/4th, 7th/17th. 1921-23 in NL only: 14th, 18th, 15th.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1913-15, 1917-19. Top 3 in majors in 1914, 17, 19.

16. Roush (PHOM 1940): PHOM for years. 3 MVP type years, excellent defense. Top 10 in NL in 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1923, 1925, 1926. 4th t/9th t, 5th t/11th t, 1st/2nd, 2nd/5th, 3rd t/8th t, 9th/15th t, 9th t/22nd t.
Top 3 in NL outfield in 1917-20, 1923. Top 3 in majors in 1919, 1920.

17. Alejandro Ohms (PHOM 1964): Many years of all-star-plus years (over 25 win shares.) 19th among centerfielders through 1980.

18. Frank Chance (PHOM 1985): Best peak and prime by a first baseman between Connor/ Brouthers and Gehrig. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907. Rank in league/majors: 3rd/3rd t, 2nd/5th t, 8th t/15th t, 3rd/4th, 6th t/15th t. Best first baseman in league and majors in 1903-1907, league 1908.

19: Cooper, Wilbur (PHOM 1985): He and Bunning are very similar, but Bunning is slightly better in several ways so there is an election gap between them.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922, 1923, 1924. 4th/NR, 4th/NR, 5th/NR, 3rd/5th, 2nd/6th, 1st/3rd, 5th/NR, 2nd/5th. Plus a 6th in 1916.

20: Burleigh Grimes (PHOM 1961): Too many ups and downs in his career to get elected, but I think he and Early Wynn are the same guy.
Top 5 in league/majors: 1918, 1920, 1921, 1924, 1928, 1929. 2nd/5th t, 2nd/3rd t, 1st/4th t, 3rd t/NR, 2nd t/2nd t, 2nd t/NR.

21. Don Newcombe: Credit for minor league years and Korea. Yes, the ERA+ were not that high, but the innings pitched were great. I give MiL credit for 1947, 1948, and 4 starts worth in 1949.
Top 5 starters in league in 1949, 1950, 1951, (Korea 1952, 1953), 1955, 1956, 1959
Rank in league/majors: 4th/9th t (1st t/5th t with MiL credit), 4th/8th, 5th/9th, 2nd/2nd, 1st/2nd, 5th/9th. Also, Korean War Credit for 1952 and 1953 at 22 WS and 23 WS gives 2 more top 4 years. For a total of 6 plus two fifths.

22. Roger Bresnahan (PHOM 1987): I have been overlooking him again. Great year in CF is a bonus. Look at how much better he was than other catchers of his era. Top 10 in league: 1903, 1904, 1906, 1908. Rank in league/majors: 5th/8th, 10th/24th, 7th/11th, 8th/15th. Best catcher in majors in 1905, 1906, 1908. Best centerfielder in majors 1903.

23. Larry Doyle (PHOM 1987): Great hitter at second. Defense left something to be desired. Top 10 in league in 1909, 1910, 1911, 1912, 1913, 1915. Rank in league/majors: 4th t/8th t, 7th/11th, 4th/9th, 3rd/9th, 9th/22nd, 2nd/5th.
Best second baseman in league: 1909 (t), 1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1916 (t), 1917. Second best in majors to Collins in 1909, 1911, 1912, 1915. Third best in majors behind Collins and Lajoie in 1910.

24. Jack Fournier: Noticed that I forgotten about him when he is given appropriate credit for 1917, 1918, and 1919. Remember he did have a 142 OPS+ for his career.
Top 10 in league in 1915, 1918 (minor league credit) 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/7th t, (9th/17th), 5th t/14th t, 5th t/10th t, 3rd/4th, 3rd/6th.
Best first baseman in league: 1915, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1925. Best in majors: 1915, 1923, 1924, 1925.
I believe the MLEs for Fournier are too low because they give him OPS+ of 117, 137, and 122 at ages 27, 28, 29. Those would be his 8th/10th/and 11th highest OPS+ for his career. He may not have set career highs but I think they would have been more line with his career.

25. Frank Howard: Just slightly below the left field knot at 14/16/18 and Billy Williams. Career was mismanaged by the Dodgers, but at that point they had more talent than they knew what to do with.
Top 12/15 in league in 1962, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971. Rank in league/majors: 12th t/18th t, 8th t/22nd t, 6th t/14th t, 2nd/2nd, 4th t/8th t, 6th t/10th t, 15th t/33rd t.
Top 3 outfielder in league: 1968, 1969, 1970. Top 3 in majors: 1968, 1970.

26. Luke Easter: Could be anywhere between here and the ballot depending on how much credit I'm giving next week.

27. Herman Long: Another key player on the 1890s Bostonians. Fantastic fielder. Need to review his defensive numbers. Top 10 in league in 1891, 1892, 1893 . Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd t, 6th, 3rd
Best shortstop in league/majors: 1891, 1893. Best in league: 1889

28. Dick Redding (PHOM 1975): Not enough shoulder seasons to go with the big 4 years. I pulled the trigger too soon on him. May need to do a recall election...

29. Al Rosen: What if...
Top 10 in league: 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1954
Rank in league/majors: 4th t/7th t, 5th t/14th t, 3rd/5th, 1st/1st, 7th/14th.
Best third baseman in AL in 1950, 1952, 1953, 1954. Best in majors in 1950, 1952, 1953.

30. Orlando Cepeda: A little ahead of Cash based on in-season durability. A little short on career, peak, and prime. Very close to ballot, but first base has the toughest standards.
Top 10/12/15 in league (up to 62/62-68/69 - ): 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1967
Rank in league: 9th t/19th t, 6th/8th, 6th/11th t, 7th t/11th t, 7th/7th, 3rd/5th, (11th in 1958)
Best first baseman in NL four times: 1961, 1962, 1963, and 1967. Best LF in 1960.

31. Vern Stephens: Great hitter. More than adequate defense. The AL in the 1940s had the following shortstops: Boudreau, Appling, Rizzuto, Joost, and Pesky. Pretty good grouping.
Top 10 in league in 1944, 1945, 1948, 1949 (11th 1943, 1947, 13th in 1950)
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 3rd/9th t, 9th t/14th t, 3rd/6th t.
Best shortstop in league in 1944, 1945. 2nd to HoMer Boudreau in 1943, to Joost in 1949, to Rizzuto in 1950 (by far), 3rd to Boudreau and Joost in 1948. In majors in 1944, 1945.

32. Elston Howard: I kept overlooking him. I don’t know what to do about balancing his actual value to the team compared with his opporunity issues: Korea, race. Catcher bonus.
Top 10 in league in 1961, 1963, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/11th t, 3rd t/12th t, 3rd/8th.
Best catcher in league in 1961, 1963, 1964. In majors in 1961, 1963, 1964.

33. Sal Bando: A conservative placement. There are so many good thirdbasemen in this era that I want to be careful. Could move up if I see a good enough argument. His peak is very good, his prime is good but his career is so-so as are his per-year numbers.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1976, 1978
Rank in league/majors: 3rd/6th t, 3rd t/9th t, 12th t/25th t, 2nd t/6th t, 12th t/24th t, 11th t/28ht t.
Top 3b in league in 1969, 1971, 1972, 1973. In majors in 1969, 1972, 1973.

34. Dizzy Dean: Great peak. Just nothing else there. Hello, Al Rosen.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/6th, 5th/9th, 1st/1st, 1st/2nd, 2nd/2nd

35. Wally Berger: Not enough career for me. Reevaluated. Excellent peak, 5 other all-star years after I give one year of MLE credit for 1929.
Top 10 in league in 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1936.
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/21st t, 1st/6th, 6th/14th, 1st/2nd t, 3rd/5th t, 10th t/21st t (13th in 1935).
Top 3 OF in league: 1931, 1933, 1934 and NL best CF in 1932 (5th overall). In majors 1931, 1933, 1934.

36. John McGraw: Just not healthy enough. After having looked at the following McGraw gets a move up.
Top 10 (15 from 92-99) in league: 1893, 1894, 1898, 1899
Rank in league/majors: 14th t, 5th t, 5th, 2nd, (16th in 1895 but 4th among non-OF, 17th in 1897 but 6th among non-OF, 11th in 1900 but 2nd among non-OF)
Best in league at position, 3rd base: 1899, 1900. In majors in 1899, 1900.

37. Norm Cash: I had been overrating him. I did not look close enough at how he compared to other 60s players. Top 10 in league only 4 times: 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966. Adjusting for additional teams only adds 1971. 2nd/2nd, 10th t/27th t, 10th t/25th t, 6th/13th, 13th w/24 (71).
Best first baseman in AL in 1961, 1963, 1965, 1966, and 1971. Best in majors in 1961. Even with the missed games.

38. Nellie Fox: He certainly stood out over the other second basemen of his era. Too bad it wasn't that difficult.
Top 10 in league in 1952, 1954, 1955, 1957, 1958, 1959, 1960 (11th in 1951, 1953): .
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/24th t, 8th t/14th t, 5th/14th t, 3rd/6th, 10th t/17th t, 1st t/5th t, 9th t/22nd t,
Best 2b in league in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960. In majors in 1955, 1957, 1959, 1960 t.

39. Wally Schang: I see the arguments. 6 times top 10 in OBP, 4 times in SLG and OPS, 5 times in OPS+.
Never in top 10 players in league because of playing time.
Best catcher in league in 1913, 1914, 1919, 1921. In majors in 1914, 1919, 1921.

40. Bob Elliott: I need to review his candidacy. Reviewed Boyer and I like Elliott better.
Top 10 in league in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950.
Rank in league/majors: 7th t/14th t, 8th t/13th t, 3rd/5th, 4th/8th, 10th t/20th t, 7th t/12th t. (12th in 1942)
Best 3rd baseman in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950. In majors in 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948 and virtual ties in 1949, 1950.
Very little difference for me between Bando, McGraw, Elliott, Boyer, Lyons, and Williamson.

41. Jack Stivetts: 4th best pitcher in the 1890s. Trouble was he pitched right as the distance changed and he was worked to death to start his career.
Top 4 (6 in 12 team era) in league: 1890, 1891, 1892, 1894
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/9th (even with a 15% discount), 1st/2nd (no discount) or 4th (20% discount), 1st, 8th in 1893, 6th, 8th in 1896.

42. George Van Haltren (PHOM 1939): Moved down in comparison with Mike Tiernan. Lots of years of 25+ win shares in the 1890s. Too bad the other outfielders were putting up better every year.
Top 10 in league (top 15 in 12 team era) in 1890, 1891, 1894, 1895, 1896, 1897, 1898 (11th t in 1889 and 1900)
Rank in league/majors: combination pitcher/outfielder ranked 5th best player with all pitchers ahead of him, 5th/7th t, 11th t, 13th t, 12th, 9th t, 6th t.
Top 3 in outfielders in league(top 5 in 12-team era) in 1898. In majors in 1898.

43. Mike Tiernan: He had slipped through my net. Much better than I realized.
Top 10 (15 from 1892-1899) in league in 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1895, 1896, 1897 .
Rank in league/majors: 7th/9th, 1st t/3rd t, 4th t/8th t, 3rd t/7th t, 13th, 8th, 11th.
Top 3 OF or top 5 in 12-team league: 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896. Top 3/5 in majors: 1889, 1890, 1891, 1896.

44. Luis Tiant: A lot of pitchers put up great numbers in the 60s and 70s. Tiant doesn’t match them. Hall of Very Good. 3 times a major league all-star is good.
Top 5 starter (61-68) top 6 (69- ) in league: 1968, 1974, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 2nd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 5th/5th (7th t in 1967, 7th t in 1972, 9th t in 1973)

45. Sal Maglie: Credit for Mexican League helps

46. Carl Mays: The best supported pitcher, offensively and defensively, other than Spalding, by Chris J’s RSI and Defensive support measures. Too bad he doesn’t have an “average” aging pattern in 1922, 1923, and 1925.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1920, 1921.
Rank in league/majors: 5th t/9th t, 4th/5th, 4th/5th t, 3rd t/6th t, 2nd/2nd

47. Monroe, Bill: He impressed the hell out of McGraw

48. George Scales: Pretty good player. Will probably move up after I adjust for Hall of Fame’s new numbers.

49. Hippo Vaughn: Excellent peak, but not enough career in the majors.
Top 5 starters in league in 1916, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1920
Rank in league/majors: 3rd t/7th t, 3rd/8th, 1st/4th, 1st/1st (I don’t count Cicotte’s year), 4th/11th t (plus an 8th in the AL in 1910 and NL in 1915)

50. Thurman Munson: Career wasn’t long enough and peak wasn’t high enough. There were a lot of excellent catcher years/careers in the 1970s: Bench/Fisk/Tenace/Simmons. Munson is definitely Hall of Very Good.
Top 15 in league in 1970, 1973, 1975, 1976.
Rank in league/majors: 12th/25th t, 9th t/22nd t, 12th t/27th t, 12th t/24th t.
Top C in league: 1970, 1973, 1976. In majors: 1976.

51. Lon Warneke: A good peak, but not as high as Dean and his career is not long enough.
Top 5 starters in league in 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935
Rank in league/majors: 1st/2nd, 2nd t/2nd t, 3rd/6th, 5th t/9th t (plus a 6th in 1940 and 1941.)

52. Ken Boyer: Next third baseman after Lyons and Williamson. Scratch that. Reviewed his record and moved into the top 50, almost.
Top 10 in league in 1958, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1964
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/14th t, 8th/17th t, 4th/5th t, 7th/14th t, 9th t/16th t. (12th in 1956, 17th t in 1962, 1963)
Best 3rd baseman in never (see Eddie Mathews, Dick Allen, Ron Santo). In majors in see previous. Late catch, a tie with Mathews in 1958.

53. Bus Clarkson: Another good player who was introduced to me through this process.

54. Urban Shocker: A very good pitcher who faced very tough opponents.
Top 5 starters in league in (1920), 1921, 1922, 1923, 1926
Rank in league/majors: 6th/10th, 3rd/3rd, 2nd/2nd, 2nd t/5th t, 4th/10th t (plus an 8th in 1924, a 9th in 1925

55. Fielder Jones: Excellent defender, 7 Gold Gloves by Win Shares. Stats are hard to understand because of the context. Quit after 1908 because Comiskey was such an ass with which to deal.
Top 10 in league: 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908
Rank in league/majors: 6th t/16th t, 5th t/9th t, 3rd t/7th t, 7th/14th, 8th/13th, 4th t/5th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1901, 1902, 1905, 1906, 1908. In majors in 1908.

56. Denny Lyons:
Top 10 in league in 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1893.
Rank in league/majors: 4th/5th, 9th t/24th t, 6th t/10th t, 2nd/5th t (no reduction) or 16th (with 15% reduction), 8th t/between 16th and 20th, 12th t.
Best 3rd baseman in league in 1887, 1890, 1891. In majors in 1887.

57. Ed Williamson:
Top 10 in league in 1879, 1882, 1884, 1885.
Rank in league/majors: 4th, 8th t/10th t, 9th t/20th t, 9th/16th, (12th in 1881 but 5th among non-OF)
Best 3rd baseman in 1879 (King Kelly is Utility with his 33 g at 3rd, 29 OF, and 21 C), 1882. In majors in 1879, 1882.

58: Bobby Bonds: 4 very good years is not enough, especially considering how many good outfielders there are in the late 60s/early 70s. Very good peak, but many outfielders had better in that era.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1977. Rank in league/majors: 5th t/11th t, 4th/8th, 4th/5th t, 14th t/25th t, 5th t/6th t, 11th t/25th t, 14th t/25th t.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1970, 1971, 1973. In majors in 1970, 1971.

Bobby Murcer: 2 great MVP-type years, but not enough supporting years. Prime is okay with the 2 mid-level all-star type years and 4 low-level all-star type years, but not quite a ballot worthy prime.
Top 10 in league (15 from 69 forward) in 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973.
Rank in league/majors: 11th t/22nd t, 1st/2nd, 2nd/4th, 9th t/22nd.
Top 3 in OF in league in 1971, 1972, 1973. In majors in 1971, 1972.

Reggie Smith: Not impressed. Below Bobby Bonds. Hall of Very Good. Very good prime, career, and per year scores for me. Peak is not very good. Needed more big years. An all-star just one or two times. There are a lot of good hitting outfielders in the 60s-70s. Top 10 in league (15 from 69- ): 1968, (1970 16th t), 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1977, (1978 16th t).
Rank in league/majors: 10th t/23rd t, 3rd t/9th t, 8th t/15th t, 15th t/29th t, 13th t/19th t, 6th t/10th t.

Jake Beckley: I think everyone knows my feelings about him by now. Around 120th in my system. Comparisons to Rafael Palmeiro do nothing for me because I ran him through my system and he is nowhere close either.

Hi -
I haven't voted for many "years". You might even say a lifetime! If I can get up to speed can I vote again this year (or next) ??
-- Brian H.

Brian H,

Yes.

1. Stargell Using WS to measure Pirate OF of my lifetime by best 6 seasons, the top 4 (in order) are Bonds, Stargell, Clemente and Kiner. Three of them are honored at PNC Park with statues (well, sort of a statue, in the case of Kiner). I would say the chances of Barry being so honored in Pittsburgh are approximately 0%. A couple dozen times a year, I tell people to meet me at the Stargell statue.
2. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
3. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
4. Keller PHoM 1967. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
5. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
6. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak, and my Dad’s old Bucky Walters model glove is proudly displayed next to the Andres Galarraga foul ball I caught.
7. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
8. Wynn, J PHoM 1986.
9. Boyer, K PHoM 1987. More deserving than Sewell.
10. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
11. Bando Close to Boyer.
12. Howard, F Howard and Bonds are tough to separate.
13. Bonds, Bo
14. Cravath Am I allowed to vote for him again? :)
15. Leach d.o.


Childs – I last voted for him in 1914 when the pool was thinner and calling him the best 2B of the 90’s carried more weight.
Beckley – If Beckley was the best player on his team, a 100 loss season would be far more likely than a pennant contender.
Moore - I like high peak, short career pitchers, but need more career from hitters. If Moore, why not Rosen?
Troupe – not enough there
Tiant – Opening ballot caution, maybe next year.
Smith – d.o.

Brian, you're more than welcome to vote again with us. BTW, when was the last time that you voted? In the Teens?

Welcome back!

Easy to vote when #1 and #2 from last ballot are elected...

1) W. Stargell- Not the greatest in-season durability, but, like, come on. He was Pops. Great hitter and a rare case where an "intangibles" argument isn't out-of-line.

1) C. Keller-A monster hitter. The notion that he shouldn't receive war credit because he might have injured his back soon is a little cockeyed, as military service isn't exactly like sipping margaritas on the beach at Cabo. Wish we knew how much his home park helped him, but he falls just out of the range of Retrosheet.

2) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Bad "peripherals", but monster run prevention + monster durability is a rare and valuble thing.

3) G. Cravath-Massive minor league credit. I can't see the argument against his induction; say, hypothetically, that Hideki Matsui had come over from Japan at age 31 and hit, not as well as he already hit (All-Star), but even better, like Pujolsian numbers. That's Cravath. How is he not an HOMer?

5)C. Childs-Best 2B baseman of his generation, well thought of by his peers, mysteriously forgotten post 1900. Played in a difficult league and dominated it. I don't even think he's a short career candidate given his position and time.

6) A. Rosen-Peak needs no commentary. I understand why a career guy cant vote for him, but he had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke.

7)E. Roush-I see him as better than Duffy, and also better than the CF's from the overrrepresented 1930's. He'd have to be really mediocre defensively not to be a 10 win player in his best seasons; I think he was better than that. I see him as similar to, but better than, Bernie Williams.

8) H. Duffy- Grudingly.

9) E. Howard- So obviously a special case. Blocked, moved, token-ed by the Yankees. Dominant at his position when he finally got a chance to play, though peak is diluted by 1961 expansion. Not very often we have candidates who were the best at a key position both defensively and offensively; such candidates deserve special consideration.

10) T. Munson- He's really much better than he appears because his peak comes in pre-renovation Yankee Stadium. I'm not inclined to give out intangible points, but if any position gets 'em, its catcher, and if any catcher gets 'em, its Munson. Munson may have been a 10-win player in his best 2 seasons in a neutral context, which is pretty awesome.

11)K. Boyer- A vote for very very good defense combined with above average hitting. Not as much of a hitting peak as I'd like to see, but it's hard to know how good his defense peak was.

12) P. Browning-I've come around on Browning. I still see him as a team cancer, I still see him as a drunk that cost his team games...but I don't think I could rationalize having been a big Waddell proponent and not even putting Borwning on the ballot.

13) C. Klein- Big bump for Klein this week. I think his prime is clearly worthy, and without qualitative evidence to how much his home park helped him, I'm not inclined to dock points for that. the value of his 4-year peak is the same or better than any other hitter on the ballot. I suspect that people aren't voting for him because he was the last man standing when the 1930's spots ran out from the era-balancers, who are naturally appalled at the '30's representation spike. I say, his value clearly meets HoM standards for a peak voter, ergo, he gets a vote.

14) N. Fox- Weak league, weak hitter, but hellacious defense. Long career, but steep slopes on either side of his prime; his peak years are just good enough. High uncertainty; and I considered Dobie Moore for this spot. As an aside, I think we need to reassess Mazeroski.

15)J. Wynn- Good enough in the field. Has a very good consecutive peak of HoM caliber seasons. One of the first players that I finished in my "away OPS+" project, and he (and other flyball-heavy boppers) tended to benefit from the Astrodome relative to raw PF. This surprised me, and led me to drop him.

Not on Ballot:

Moore & Troupe -I don't believe that we need demographic balance, and I don't think we're deep enough into the backlog to ignore some clearly deserving white hitters. I often wonder if voters treat the low-data NgL players as the "other lane" in a traffic jam. Moore for example, may well have had a hell of a peak; but so did Al Rosen, and no one's voting for him!

J. Beckley- Yay for mediocrity!

Pitchers Other Than Dean- After careful review, I have concluded that all eligible pitchers except for Dizzy are sort of at the same level; all OK, but all with flaws. Rather than arbitrarily select pitchers for the ballot, or lower standards with a flood of great pitchers coming, I went for a pitching-lite ballot.

zop - don;t grudge Duffy - the man earned his way onto your ballot.

zop - I'm also going to assume that eller is 2nd, Dean 3rd and Cravath 4th?

Yeah, I don't know why anybody would vote for any player grudgingly. It's not like we don't have lots of candidates to choose from! My "grudginglies" are down below #40.

> Troupe – not enough there

Enough what? I see enough bat and enough career. I can concede not enough catching or not enough defense.

Two grudgingly posts, and nobody asks what what grudingly means? Our civility has returned.


Marc, all my votes below #8 are made grudgingly. There are a lot of candidates, but not that many that stick out from the crowd anymore.

> Troupe – not enough there

Enough what? I see enough bat and enough career. I can concede not enough catching or not enough defense.

Looks like not enough letters in his name for Dan. ;-)

1. Dobie Moore - What can I say, I'm sold. Ernie Banks without the 1b years? Good enough for me.
2. Pete Browning - Big beneficiary this time around. I'm convinced he was the 1880's Dick Allen.
3. Ken Boyer - Brooks Robinson-lite, but with a peak.
4. Charlie Keller - Poor man's Kiner. Close with war credit, but Kiner's huge peak was real.
5. Willie Stargell - Good numbers, but not all that durable in-season.
6. Cupid Childs - Another guy who moves up. Dominant 2B of his generation.
7. Thurman Munson - I'm warming up to the idea that he was very similar to Freehan.
8. Hugh Duffy - Moves down, as he doesn't have much other than that 1894 - I like Browning better after looking closer.
9. Bucky Walters - How did I miss him for so long? An egregious oversight on my part.
10. Alejandro Oms - I was missing a lot on him for a while. Nice player.
11. Frank Howard - Now comes the fun part. As a peak guy (even though I count career as well, I lean peak), I couldn't rationalize him so low, especially behind Beckley.
12. Norm Cash - Raw numbers better than Howard, but Cash was platooned.
13. Chuck Klein - Similar to Howard, but how much of it was the Baker Bowl?
14. Jake Beckley - Looking closer at Taylor moves Beckley ahead of GVH, and virtually tied with:
15. Ben Taylor - Great defense, Beckley-esque offensive profile.
16-20: Luis Tiant, GVH, Roy White, Dick Redding, Gavy Cravath
21-40: Dizzy Trout, Lou Brock, Addie Joss, Nellie Fox, Charley Jones, Dizzy Dean, Roger Bresnahan, Quincy Trouppe, Sam Rice, Mickey Lolich, Pie Traynor, Edd Roush Mike Marshall, Vada Pinson, Jimmy Wynn, Orlando Cepeda, Catfish Hunter, Bob Johnson, Bobby Murcer, John McGraw

Tiant - I don't know what to make of him - nice peak, but inconsistent career.
Murcer - I like him a bit better than Bonds, but not close to the ballot.
Reggie Smith - With Japan credit, maybe in the 20-30 range. As is, in the 50-75 range. Not enough durability, and an odd career shape.

1988 Ballot

I have completely reorganized my thinking about HOM worthiness. My insistance on career-length was misguided for most positions, and led inevitably and wrongly to my votes being given disproportionately to first basemen and corner outfielders. Not only that, but as an emphasis on career-value it was flawed in any case, since career-value is not only a function of length, but of how valuable a player was during his prime, including, of course, defensive value as best I can determine it. So I have attached more weight to prime than I did before, and attempted to consider the player's ranking during that prime against his contemporaries, particularly at his own position (and particularly for positions that I had underrepresented before), more thoroughly. This ranking is a compromise between peak and career, taking position into account.

1. Jimmy Wynn
2. Bob Elliott
3. Ken Boyer
4. Gavy Cravath
5. Ernie Lombardi
6. Burleigh Grimes
7. Tommy Bridges
8. Frank Howard
9. Quincy Trouppe
10. Jake Beckley
11. Orlando Cepeda
12. Tony Oliva
13. Charley Jones
14. Wally Schang
15. Willie Stargell
16. Norm Cash
17. Dizzy Trout
18. Pete Browning
19. George Van Haltren
20. Jack Quinn
21. Eddie Cicotte
22. Bob Johnson
23. Cupid Childs
24. Sam Rice
25. Dutch Leonard
26. Jimmy Ryan
27. Addie Joss
28. Edd Roush
29. Luis Tiant
30. Bucky Walters
31. Lou Brock

Perhaps individual commentary will follow later, if there is question as to whether to count my ballot.

>I have completely reorganized my thinking about HOM worthiness.

I thinkk you should also reorganize your thinking about making a comment about the players who are on your ballot. Perhaps you haven't noticed that the other 50+ voters all do and have been doing so for 90 years, because it is required.

If on the other hand it is not required (and somebody forgot to tell everyone except Vaux) then I am certainly going to stop wasting my time with comments about individual players starting with my very next ballot.

I thinkk you should also reorganize your thinking about making a comment about the players who are on your ballot. Perhaps you haven't noticed that the other 50+ voters all do and have been doing so for 90 years, because it is required.

If on the other hand it is not required (and somebody forgot to tell everyone except Vaux) then I am certainly going to stop wasting my time with comments about individual players starting with my very next ballot.

All complaints should be e-mailed to Joe, if you want this enforced, Marc.

Pitchers Other Than Dean- After careful review, I have concluded that all eligible pitchers except for Dizzy are sort of at the same level; all OK, but all with flaws. Rather than arbitrarily select pitchers for the ballot, or lower standards with a flood of great pitchers coming, I went for a pitching-lite ballot.

Can't you make the same conclusion about the hitters on your ballot? "All OK, but all with flaws." Several are missing career length, such as Rosen. Several have poor defensive reputations, such as Browning. You even cited some flaws in hitters who made your ballot, such as Wynn. If batters with flaws can make your ballot then it seems hypocritical that pitchers with flaws are excluded. It doesn't have to be a case of lowering your standards in order to include more than one pitcher on your ballot. Instead, it seems like you're holding pitchers to a higher standard then you're holding hitters.

Moore & Troupe -I don't believe that we need demographic balance, and I don't think we're deep enough into the backlog to ignore some clearly deserving white hitters. I often wonder if voters treat the low-data NgL players as the "other lane" in a traffic jam. Moore for example, may well have had a hell of a peak; but so did Al Rosen, and no one's voting for him!

I have a problem with this paragraph as well. You've basically said that you're not going to vote for Negro League players until all of the deserving white players have been elected. Well, I'm sorry, that's strictly unconstitutional. Nobody's saying that you have to ignore deserving white players. If you think Rosen is better than Moore, then by all means include Rosen on your ballot and have him higher than Moore. But isn't it possible that there's room for both? We should be voting for clearly deserving white players and clearly deserving Negro League players.