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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 23, 2006

1988 Ballot

Prominent new candidates: Willie Stargell, Reggie Smith, Luis Tiant, Bobby Murcer, Lee May, and Sparky Lyle.

Top-ten returnees: Cupid Childs, Ken Boyer, Nellie Fox, Jimmy Wynn, Jake Beckley, Dobie Moore, and Quincey Trouppe.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 23, 2006 at 12:03 PM | 136 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Jeff M Posted: October 30, 2006 at 04:25 AM (#2227840)
1988 Ballot

1. Oms, Alejandro – His closest comps appear to be Manush, Sisler and Wheat. All are already in the HoM and Oms played a more important defensive position than Sisler.

2. Jones, Charley – With all the extra credit given for minor league seasons, military service, etc., I finally broke down and gave Jones conservative credit for blacklisted seasons. He has been on my ballot every year even without the extra credit, and the extra credit didn’t change his ranking much.

3. Browning, Pete – He proved in the PL that he was no fluke. I don’t understand the arguments about his defense, since defense in the outfield really contributes little to the overall picture. Has been in my PHoM for most of the life of this project. How is it that Browning and Jones are only on 1/3 of the ballots?

4. Lyle, Sparky – I was surprised by this one, but then I looked at the Adjusted Runs Prevented stats on Baseball Prospectus, and discovered that Lyle was a fantastic run preventer, in addition to his saves, and notwithstanding his ERA. Tough on me too, because I hated Lyle when I was a kid. (Also ironic that I loved Reggie Smith, but can't even keep him in my HoM consideration set).

5. Roush, Edd -- 300+ WS; 100+ WARP1; normalized .322/.368/.444; good grey ink; and an above average defender in the outfield.

6. Wilson, Artie – A fine defensive shortstop who outhits the average hitter by about 20% has to be on the ballot.

7. Duffy, Hugh – A very good outfielder who hit approximately 40% better than the rest of the league. Duffy’s grey ink dips when you park adjust, but he still fares well overall. Not as good offensively as Billy Williams, but not as far behind as I would have thought. Given his position in the outfield, I rank him higher than Williams.

8. Childs, Cupid – I’ve been reevaluating all candidates (from the start of the project). Childs didn’t really gain any points, but some guys around him lost points, so Childs vaults onto the ballot, at least until I get through the rest of the century.

9. Dean, Dizzy -- Hard to get this high a ballot position with only five or so seasons, but Dean is the exception.

10. Stargell, Willie – Decent career and peak for an outfielder in WS, but not as impressive in aWARP1. In addition, I’m not impressed by only 6 All-Star appearances (which is about how many you’d get if you elected him for 25 WS).

11. Cuyler, Kiki – Talk about under the radar. Take another look at Kiki. Most of his comps are HoMers. I’ve got him around.316/.380/.463 even after normalizing away some of those high league run scoring years.

12. Moore, Dobie – I think he is a notch below HoM level, but would have been a shoo-in with a few more years.

13. Long, Herman – From the dustbin, a 300+ aWS & 130+ aWARP1 shortstop.

14. Maranville, Rabbit – Defense and long career gets him a ballot spot.

15. McGraw, John – A couple more full seasons and he would have easily gained significantly on the ballot. Tied with Traynor in my rankings, but I give the nod to McGraw for that OBP.

Required Disclosure(s):

Beckley, Jake – Tied with Heinie Zimmerman.

Boyer, Ken – Has been on my ballot but slid off with reevaluations of a few more candidates from the backlog.

Fox, Nellie – Been on and off the ballot. He’s pretty much tied with Boyer.

Trouppe, Quincy – At least he’s not Redding, but I don’t see where his votes could be coming from. Are we just desperate to elect another catcher from the Negro Leagues?

Wynn, Jimmy – Barely in my consideration set. Can’t give him much credit for being a centerfielder because he probably shouldn’t have been there. He seems like a candidate only for extreme peak voters, and even then it seems a stretch to consider him as a truly great player.
   102. rawagman Posted: October 30, 2006 at 06:36 AM (#2227897)
Chris - I didn't take Robby's comments as being unconstitutional - I think he was simply saying that it seems that some people are choosing the Negro Leaguers as a default - ie. they were screwed by the system, so I'll give them a subjective boost and bump them over player White, even though White may, in fact, be a bit better.
I believe that Robby is simply trying to point out that he is attempting to be fully objective.
   103. EricC Posted: October 30, 2006 at 10:30 AM (#2227917)
1988 ballot.

1. Willie Stargell The premier LF during his prime and MVP-level at his peak; also enough career value to be a "first-ballot" HoMer.

2. Wally Schang Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement.

3. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give full war credit.

4. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats". I feel that Cepeda, in particular, deserves a careful look, especially when 60s NL strength is taken into account.

5. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election.

6. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

7. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre- expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

8. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF.

9. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

10. Jimmy Wynn Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

11. Sol White Star-quality middle-infielder, mainly 2B, with long career late 1880s to mid 1900s. Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to know how accurate this rating is.

12. Roger Bresnahan Mutiple years of all-star level C play and wasn't too shabby in the CF either.

13. Frank Howard All-star level (or close to it) corner outfielder most years 1962-1969.

14. Emil "Dutch" Leonard Compiled innings, without much distinction, for years, then took proton energy pills at age 38, pitching like an ace starter 1947-1948, and like an ace reliever 1951-1952.

15. Al Rosen Like with E. Howard, a huge peak. The premier 3B 1950-1954 & legitimate 1953 MVP. Little outside those 5 years, but very few, if any, non-HoFers have ever earned 150 WS over a 5 year stretch.

Top 10 returnees Childs, Boyer, and Beckley, were all very good players who have been on my ballot in the past. I would prefer Lundy to Moore and Double Duty Radcliffe to Trouppe.

I will be voting for a lot of long career 70s pitchers, but Tiant fils falls short in my system.
   104. andrew siegel Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:04 AM (#2227920)
Not many changes:

1) Keller (1st)--Identical to Allen offensively. Better defense and lack of issues make up for the playing time gap (which is only 900 plate appearances if you adjust for schedule length and give war credit plus one year of MiL credit). The only player on the ballot who played consistently at the level of a Grade A Hall of Famer from the day he came up to the day he hung it up. With appropriate credits has an 8 year-run at the level that guys like Kiner, Berger, and Chance only reached for 4 or 5.

(2) Stargell (new)--My system has him #1, but it has so many 1970's OF's as HoM-worthy that I am cautiously applying a small corrective. With adjustments for schedule, war, and MiL credit, he has about 60 more WS than Keller, but has only a couple of seasons at the level Keller consistently played at. It's close.

(3) Roush (2nd)--Higher on the All-Time list at his position than anyone except the top two and the third basemen. A star in his own time.

(4) Cravath (4th)--Not quite the offensive force that Keller or Allen was, but consistently close to that level. Kiner with a longer produtive career or Charley Jones w/o the competition problems.

(5) Bob Johnson (5th)--Doesn't jump out at you, but no knocks on his resume--highest OWP of any long-career OF still on the board, over 300 WS with proper minor leaue credit even playing for bad teams, great consistency, excellent fielder for his position.

(6) Cash (6th)--Similar in career length, offensive value, and defensive value to Wynn but a smidge higher on all three according to WARP and more consistent to boot.

(7) Bridges (7th)--Like Cash, Schang, Ted Lyons, Roush, etc., he's underrated by our tendency to focus on seasonal numbers. Put up lots of quality and sufficient quantity.

(8) Leach (8th)--If you subtract Brooks Robinson's final useless seasons and project Leach's years out to 162 games, Robinson and Leach have almost identical EQA's and defensive rates in a very similar number of games. The only difference is that half of Leach's games were in CF rather than 3B. Hard to imagine that keeping him out of the HoM.

(9) Trouppe (9th)--Jumped back onto the ballot after I decided to treat him like a pre-Negro League candidate and focus on his demonstrated skills rather than his MLE's.

(10) Wynn (11th)--Seven or eight top half of the HoM-type seasons sprinkled among a bunch of clunkers.

(11) Boyer (12th)--Did it all well for just long enough. Somewhere around the #17 3B of All-Time.

(12) Elliot (13th)--My tools aren't good enough to distinguish between him and Boyer.

(13) Childs (14th)--One of my favorite players. Only knock is that there were so many good SS and 3B during his era that his position dominance may have been a fluke.

(14) Oms (15th)--MLE's and contemporary commentary are in accord.

(15) Duffy (nr/16th)--Welcome back.

There are arguments for Fox; I just like others better (he's in the low 30's). Beckley is #17 and will make my ballot again soon. I once had Dobie Moore 1st on my ballot, but now have him around 50th. The difference is that I had originally projected a historic peak for him, but the latest numbers don't support it.

Reggie Smith is a very serious candidate. I currently have him #22. He looks like Jimmy Wynn with the following small negatives: (1) Just enough of a lower starting point in CF skills that his required moved out of center came a few years earlier in his career; (2) Spread the plate apperances across more seaons, losing the slight pop that come from big peak seasons; (3) Didn't mesh offensive and defensive peak quite as well.

Since pitcher role and durability differs so much over time, I rank them against their contemporaries. As a result, Luis Tiant is not a particularly serious candidate. He somewhere in the late 40's.
   105. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 12:34 PM (#2227926)
Chris - I didn't take Robby's comments as being unconstitutional - I think he was simply saying that it seems that some people are choosing the Negro Leaguers as a default - ie. they were screwed by the system, so I'll give them a subjective boost and bump them over player White, even though White may, in fact, be a bit better.
I believe that Robby is simply trying to point out that he is attempting to be fully objective.

That's the way I'm reading dzop, too. Though he's wrong about Moore-Rosen, since the voters here who have the former on their ballots feel he has a more impressive prime than the latter (their peaks might be comparable).
   106. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 12:39 PM (#2227928)
41 ballots tallied so far. Still missing ballots from: SWW, James Newburg, Don F, Dan G, Trevor P., Andrew M, Ken Fischer, Devin McCullen, Esteban Rivera, Patrick W, Tiboreau, jimd, KJOK, and the Commish.

New voter Tom D. e-mailed me to say that he will post a ballot sometime today, while fra paolo gave me permission to post his prelim if he doesn't post one himself today.
   107. Mr Dashwood Posted: October 30, 2006 at 12:51 PM (#2227934)
I'll be posting later, if I don't forget!
   108. sunnyday2 Posted: October 30, 2006 at 02:13 PM (#2227958)
>they were screwed by the system, so I'll give them a subjective boost and bump them over player White, even though White may, in fact, be a bit better.

I don't frankly believe people vote that way. It's more like, "they were screwed by the system, so I'll give them a subjective boost" to where they would rate if they hadn't been screwed by the system and therefore "bump them over player White, because sans getting screwed by the system they would have been a bit better than White."

I never felt like people were voting for players they knew weren't as good as White, they maybe just didn't have the statistical record because of the screwing they got.
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 02:37 PM (#2227970)
I never felt like people were voting for players they knew weren't as good as White, they maybe just didn't have the statistical record because of the screwing they got.

I agree, Marc. I don't know of anyone doing that here or even suspect a voter dealing in that practice.
   110. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 03:03 PM (#2227995)
I sent out e-mails to all voters who have yet to vote.
   111. rawagman Posted: October 30, 2006 at 03:50 PM (#2228025)
I meant that even if no one does it, it is easy to give out all sorts of subjective boosts for various reasons (WWI/II, MIL, NEL, pre-NEL credit), he wants to point out that he is ranking them as objectively as possible.
   112. Ken Fischer Posted: October 30, 2006 at 03:52 PM (#2228026)
1988 Ballot

Back after missing 1987..a strange year for me. Actually I was swamped at work and forgot. 1988 appears to be wide open.

1-Willie Stargell 370 WS
Compares well to McCovey and Snider. Incredible 1979 season. Still is in the top 50 in career slugging pct. Not quite but almost a no-brainer for me.

2-Dick Redding
Is Dick going to rise again? He is ranked by many as one of the top pitchers of the pre-Negro League days.

3-George Van Haltren 344 WS
Van appears to be losing support! Like Redding, Van had a run where it looked like he would make the HOM. It’s now doubtful. But I’m holding out. His numbers deserve the high ranking.

4-Mickey Welch 354 WS
I continue to hold out hope for the 300-game winner. How can we forget that 1885 season!

5-Carl Mays 256 WS
256 win shares in an offense dominated era is impressive.

6-Vern Stephens 265 WS
His comps are Doerr & Lazzeri but I believe he was better. A forerunner of the modern power hitting shortstop.

7-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

8-Bob Johnson 287 WS
A raw deal…Indian Bob will forever be hurt by playing for mostly bad teams and the overlapping eras he played in (Live Ball & War Years). A solid performer year after year…he’s deserves a good look.

9-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps.

10- Ken Boyer 279 WS
Boyer was overshadowed by Santo and perhaps his own teammates.

11-Dobie Moore
He finally makes my ballot. We’re taking a lot on hearsay…but I’ve been swayed by the argument he had a great peak.

12-Edd Roush 314 WS
McGraw didn’t get along with him but liked the way he played.

13-Luis Tiant 256 WS
Bad timing…Bunning, Drysdale and Pierce plus the no-brainers like Koufax, Gibson and Spahn in the 60s then the 70s guys that followed…Luis is overlooked. Watch him climb the HOM wall. I predict admission within 10 years.

14-Lou Brock 348 WS
Good post-season numbers. Lou stood out in a pitchers era. After further review I dropped Lou out of my time ten.

15-Cupid Childs
Short career…but he was probably every bit as good as Hughie Jennings. After all these years Cupid is finally on my ballot.

Trouppe needs more study. Wynn and Fox are close to making my ballot but Brock’s numbers…and how Childs compares well to the other outstanding 1890s middle infielders keep them off my ballot for now.
   113. DL from MN Posted: October 30, 2006 at 04:16 PM (#2228046)
Can we lay off the double entendres (or do I just have a dirty mind)? See Dick Redding comment.
   114. Esteban Rivera Posted: October 30, 2006 at 04:51 PM (#2228079)
1988 Ballot:

1. Willie Stargell – Claims the top spot this year.

2. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

3. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

4. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder.

5. Edd Roush – Vaults up into the top five with considerations for hold out credit.

6. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

7. Charley Jones – Fantastic hitter from the 19th century. Gets some credit for blacklisting from me.

8. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of “years” has made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

9. Bill Monroe - Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

10. Roger Bresnahan - I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league.

11. Cupid Childs – Very good offensive force at a time were careers were shortened because of the roughhouse style played.

12. Nellie Fox – Outstanding defense and hitting production for a good length of time.

13. Bob Johnson – Have been overlooking Indian Bob. PCL credit counterbalances any war discounts.

14. Vic Willis – Jumps into the top 20. Blame the cohort analysis for making me take another look at Vic.

15. Burleigh Grimes - Has enough big seasons and career bulk to edge him over other similar candidates.

16. Pie Traynor - I'll agree that he is not as great as the praises make him out to be but he still has a worthy resume.

17. Ken Boyer – Giving him a little war credit nudges him into the top 20.

18. Quincey Trouppe – All evidence points to him being a good to great hitter for his position and a solid if not good catcher. Works for me.

19. Gavvy Cravath – One of the enigmas in terms of career interpretation. His career in the majors combined with my interpretation of the other information places him here.

20. Tony Lazzeri – Agree with others that he has been somewhat overlooked by the electorate. Given credit for time in the PCL.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

Jimmy Wynn – In my top 25.
   115. Mr Dashwood Posted: October 30, 2006 at 05:00 PM (#2228090)
I vote on the basis of achievements during prime, working on the basis of an average season during the prime, and defining prime differently for pitchers, hitting positions (1b+OF) and fielding positions (remaining IF). I used to apply a strict positional balance policy, but I'm moving toward a comparative approach (eg, if catcher X, then catcher Y, too). I also prefer, where possible, to use OPS+ relative to position, than to overall League.
1 Cupid Childs Between 1890 and 1897 he accumulated 214 Adjusted Batting Runs and 72 Fielding Runs, which is a very high total for an infielder.
2 Jimmy Wynn Way underrated. In terms of Batting Runs + Fielding Runs he's the most impactful of the hitting position players on my ballot.
3 Willie Stargell He's good when he can play, but he only averages 128 games per year during his prime, and I reduce value when a position player falls below 145/162.
4 Ken Boyer Boyer is an excellent third baseman in an 11-year prime, and is only a little less valuable than Childs. Another underrated candidate.
5 Thurman Munson Closer to Freehan over prime than people seem to think, I rate these two as of equal value. The difference comes down to Freehan's advantage in best-3-OPS+-years against Munson's more playing time at catcher.
6 Bucky Walters. Equivalent to Pierce over his prime, but offers more high-impact seasons in contrast to greater consistency.
7 Alejandro Oms Oms beats out a crowded field of outer circle HoMer types because he has got the longest prime.
8 Orlando Cepeda By virtue of height of prime, he's first at first at the moment.
9 Dave Bancroft I think he's the best shortstop in the backog at the moment. His main drawback is a lack of playing time.
10 Bill Mazeroski Here he is, the man of the hour. He's only this low because of my positional balance fetish. If Childs is elected, expect him to rise a few more places.
11 Tommy Bridges I don't know how I missed him before, but I like him better than Trout, and he's very close to Walters, but only just beats Shocker to a ballot place.
12 Elston Howard Howard was a very good catcher, and no slouch with the bat either. I'd certainly rather have him behind the plate than the elected Joe Torre. Howard averaged more games at catcher than Torre.
13 Charley Jones A dominant bat in his era, given a boost because of his missing years owing to a salary dispute.
14 Edd Roush When he retired he was the 2d-best centrefielder in National League history. Overshadowed by his AL counterparts.
15 Lou Brock. One cannot ignore that he is, in 1988, the all-time stolen base leader. He also has a very long prime, at 13 years.

Esteemed newcomers:
I don't see great value in Reggie Smith. I'd vote for Tony Oliva and maybe Roy White ahead of him. Luis Tiant has career totals that stand comparison with the pitchers I have mentioned above, but amassed them over too long a period for him to do well under my system which requires a certain amount of peak value.

Required disclosures
Nellie Fox: I don't think he's overall as valuable as Mazeroski.
Jake Beckley: I'm not sure about him, and I'm sticking with Cepeda until I finally get round to the closer look I planned to take a couple of ballots ago.
Dobie Moore: His career was too short. Not that it was his fault.
Quincey Trouppe: Straight up, Munson looks better to me.
   116. SWW Posted: October 30, 2006 at 05:23 PM (#2228114)
Not much change this year, although an intriguing surprise at the bottom of the ballot.

<u>1988 Ballot</u>
1) Wilver Dornel Stargell – “Pops”
Obviously big career numbers, with one of the higher available 5-year primes, as well. Do you think they’d let him get away with Stargell Stars these days? I think they would fine him eight ways from Sunday, unless the stars were sponsored by Century 21. 46th on Ken Shouler Top 100. 81st on Sporting News Top 100. 82nd on Bill James Top 100. 93rd on SABR Top 100. 67th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
2) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
A successful pitcher with both a dead ball and a live one. Frequently one of the best pitchers in the league, and often the best pitcher on his team. Many comparisons to Early Wynn, who we did elect. 54th on Maury Allen Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
3) Jacob Nelson Fox – “Nellie”
A uniquely successful second baseman for his era, with our without a chunk of tobacco in his cheek. Six Top 10 WS appearances and very good Standards and Monitor scores.
4) Orlando Manuel Cepeda Pennes – “Baby Bull”
I find his closeness to Norm Cash fascinating, since I feel like Cash’s career numbers are heavily slanted by his best season. I find Cha-Cha to be the best first baseman eligible for consideration, with excellent career numbers, and five appearances in the NL Top 10 in Win Shares.
5) Carl William Mays
The career numbers come out the same with Luis Tiant, but Mays has better seasons and more milestones. Comes out better on ink, too. I wonder if Tiant is going to become the new Billy Pierce: a better-loved pitcher who Mays outperforms.
6) Kenton Lloyd Boyer
Overshadowed by flashier glovemen like Santo and Brooksie at the hot corner, but a definite sign of he changing attitude towards the position. I have him ahead of Bando, but I’m not sure he’s this far ahead. That deserves another look. 5 Top 10 WS seasons are nothing at which to sneeze.
7) Hugh Duffy
Looking at that career arc sort of reminds me of George Sisler., who I supported for a very long time. I dropped him a bit, though, because the peakishness of his career does not thrill me, when compared with Mays, Boyer, and Freehan.
8) Louis Clark Brock
It’s possible that WS overrate him, and players like George Van Haltren or Mickey Welch have comparable career WS and don’t appear on my ballot. However, I remain a career voter at heart, and he ranks well over the long run. He does well in Black and Gray Ink (owing, no doubt, to his prowess on the basepaths), and his prime WS and Top 10 WS seasons (134 and 3, respectively) far outstrip some of the guys he’s being compared to, like Jake Beckley and Sam Rice. I’m still listening to everyone’s arguments, but I feel he’s earned a spot on my ballot. 42nd on Ken Shouler Top 100. 58th on Sporting News Top 100. 73rd on SABR Top 100. 77th on McGuire & Gormley Top 100. 44th on Maury Allen Top 100. New York Times Top 100. Ritter & Honig Top 100.
9) Edd J Roush
I’ve always liked his career stats, and the recent discussion of time missed helps to reinforce my earlier view that he is a worthy candidate. So many center fielders, though.
10) Richard Redding – “Cannonball Dick”
Like so many of the very good Negro League stars, very difficult to get a handle on. Remains this high thanks to my support for Mays, who has strikingly similar arcs.
11) Lawrence Joseph Doyle - “Laughing Larry”
The best second baseman in the National League for several years running. I suppose he suffers due to the quality of his competition. A worthy candidate, though.
12) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
A continuing tribute to my belief in Win Shares. Andrew Siegel calls him “the rich man’s Sam Rice.” I know it wasn’t meant as a compliment, but I’ve supported Rice in the past, so I’m okay backing Leach. Stronger prime sets him apart, plus he excelled at two positions, which is interesting.
13) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
Speaking of which… I always come back to him. Of the guys who are all career and no peak, he’s the one I would induct first. Great career numbers, and consistently the best position player on a very bad team for a very long time. More durable than Reggie Smith, and more essential to his team’s performance.
14) Charles Herbert Klein – “Chuck”
Making his ballot debut. Both Kiner and Klein contribute so much at their peak that my position as a career voter has to consider them. In comparing the two, Klein has the superior numbers. Kiner has tougher competition, but I give Chuck the slightest edge.
15) Quincy Thomas Trouppe
Ballot debut. And this is why it’s really a good reason to demand comments on other Top 10 finishers. Forced to go back and review my objections to Trouppe, I realize that I have had him far lower than he ought to be. An unusually varied career, but particularly successful behind the plate. May move up the ballot in coming years.

<u>Other Top 10 Finishers</u>
Clarence Algernon Childs – “Cupid”
I find his career too short and his peaks insufficiently high to place him above Fox or Doyle. Strikes me as a peakier version of Red Schoendienst, but not so peak oriented as to dominate his position at his best, the way Klein does.
James Sherman Wynn
I’ve got a lot of center fielders jockeying for position on my ballot. Wynn fares better than I expected, with 6 Top 10 WS finishes and a solid career. A little flat, but his similarity to the newly-ascendent Roush is helping his cause.
Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
As the backlog clears out, he inches closer and closer to the ballot. He remains in my consideration set because of my tendency to favor career numbers. However, his career is so utterly peakless, his seasonal performances are so completely without contributions above the norm, I’m hard pressed to call him a great.
Walter Moore – “Dobie”
Reminds me of Hughie Jennings. I wasn’t that fond of his candidacy, either. An unfortunately short career, but a short career nonetheless.
   117. OCF Posted: October 30, 2006 at 06:24 PM (#2228167)
89 candidates receiving votes so far. Votes for Shocker, F. Jones, Dunlap, and D. DiMaggio, all of which are likely from voters who haven't posted yet, would bring that to 93. We'll make it to 100 by the time we reach 2007.
   118. Andrew M Posted: October 30, 2006 at 07:25 PM (#2228204)
1988 Ballot

1. (new) Willie Stargell. An easy choice for the top spot this year.

2. (1) Dobie Moore. If you take into account his army years, he appears to have been a great player for more than a Jennings-esque 5 years--and high peak SS’s are hard to find.

3. (3) Nellie Fox. Durable (never had fewer than 600 ABs between 1951-1962), consistent, got on base a lot, and was excellent fielder at an important defensive position for more than 2300 games. 94 OPS+ is OBP heavy and dragged down by some poor years at the very beginning and end of his career.

4. (4) Larry Doyle. Career OPS+ of 126, and he was consistently in the NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. He also won an MVP award and was an 8-time STATS NL all-star. Best offensive player on the best offensive team in the league 1911-1913. By all accounts played extremely hard and captained the team for several years.

5. (5) Edd Roush. There are some peculiar things about his career—holdouts, the Federal League, etc.—and it isn’t readily apparent that Roush was better than some of the other eligible OFs with around 8000 career plate appearances, e.g. Burns, Veach, Cuyler, Manush, Bob Johnson, Minoso, Jimmy Wynn. To me, though, his 5 year peak between 1917-1921 where he was in the top 4 in OPS+ and playing A-level CF (according to Win Shares—WARP thinks less of his fielding) seems slightly higher than those other OFs, and his career was significantly longer than the OFs with higher peaks (e.g. Kiner, Keller). In other words, Roush balances both peak (three 30+ Win Shares seasons, six seasons above 8 WARP and 140 OPS+) and career (above 100 WARP and 300 WS) better than the other eligible candidates.

6. (6) Cupid Childs. Best 2B of the early-mid 1890s. Given the relative brevity of his career, it is hard for me to put him higher, but I like him more than I like the three 1890s OFs.

7. (7) Geo. Van Haltren. It gets tiresome typing his name every two weeks, but he did everything well for a long time during a difficult era. He even pitched decently. Some measures (e.g. Win Shares) make him look like a clear HoM-er; other measures make a less compelling argument.

8. (8) Dick Redding. Long career, decent peak. I’m not completely sold on him—at times I thought he looked like Juan Marichal, at others Burleigh Grimes—though I’m taking his reputation into account more than I would for a MLB player.

9. (9) Tommy Bridges. Like Billy Pierce, he’s not really a peak or career candidate. His top ERA+ season is 147, but he had six seasons between 140 and 147—and ten seasons in which he was in the top 10 in the AL. And while he wasn’t much of a workhorse, he did finish in the top 10 in innings five times.

10. (12) Jimmy Wynn. An unusual, relatively brief career, but he got on base a ton, hit for power, seems to have been a decent fielder, and had one of the best of all nicknames.

11. (14) Quincy Trouppe. I don’t have much of a sense of his defense, but assuming he was at least average, I think he looks pretty similar in career length and quality to Bill Freehan, though his skills were different.

12. (13) George J. Burns. Arguably the best NL OF of the 1910s. Rarely missed a game, had 3 MVP caliber seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) and averaged close to 27 Win Shares a season for a decade.

13. (15) Tommie Leach. Long career, excellent fielder at both CF and 3B. Hit enough for 3B.

14. (new) Charlie Keller. Even with war credit, his career has always been too short for me to vote for him. But I do like him better than Hughie Jennings and it occurs to me that the arguments for Dobie Moore, who I do support, aren’t all that different than those for Keller.

15. (new) Phil Rizzuto. The poor man’s Nellie Fox.

Next 7
Bucky Walters
Alejandro Oms
Jimmy Ryan
Ken Boyer or Sal Bando
Indian Bob Johnson
Reggie Smith
Vern Stephens

Required Disclosures:
Ken Boyer. I’ve voted for him before. Currently just off the ballot, though if push came to shove, I’d probably place Bando above him on the ballot.

Jake Beckley. I wouldn’t object to his election, but there are probably 30 guys I’d place ahead of him.
   119. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: October 30, 2006 at 08:15 PM (#2228226)
1. Willie Stargell LF/1B (n/e) - Sure he wasn't too durable, but he still managed 9000 PA and a 147 OPS+ and was a key player on a couple of World Champions.

2. Gavy Cravath RF (1) - Either he was a freak of nature, or there's a lot missing. I vote for the latter. Check out his thread for deeper discussion of the specifics, including a great analysis from Gadfly. He's the kind of guy we were hoping to catch when we started this project.

3. Jack Quinn SP (2) - I'm giving him credit for 1916-18 where he was pitching (quite well) in the PCL after the Federal League went belly-up. He gets a big leverage bonus for his nearly 800 IP of relief work at a LI of 1.26. Without any PCL credit I still have him between Bridges and Grimes.

4. Charley Jones LF (3) - A superstar of the early NL/AA. I give full credit for his contract debacle / blacklisting, which I consider a product of his timeframe, and not something that would hinder any modern player.

5. Urban Shocker SP (4) - Vaulted in 1981, with 1918 war credit (he was having a great year), and an adjustment for the AL being much better than the NL during his time. He was a great pitcher, peak guys should really look closer at him. He'd be a no brainer without his illness, which should not impact a peak vote.

6. Tommy Bridges SP (6) - Unspectacular peak (although he would have won the 1936 AL Cy Young Award if it had been invented), but a lot of career value. War credit helps nudge him above Trout and Leonard. He could obviously still pitch when he left for the war, and was still good when he returned for a short time. I give him 2 years of credit at his 1941-43 level.

7. Jake Beckley 1B (7) - I still fully endorse his election. A smidge below Rafael Palmeiro, they were basically the same player, though Palmeiro was a little bit better with the stick, 1B was much tougher in Beckley's day. The average 1B had just a .531 OWP during his career, Beckley was .596, played good, though not great defense (+67 FRAA according to WARP) and played for nearly 20 years. The Ted Lyons, Red Faber or Red Ruffing of 1B. There's just so much career value here. Too much to ignore.

8. Charlie Keller (8) - Gave him minor league credit for 1938, when he was clearly major league quality, and I threw in war credit. He comes out way ahead of Kiner once I do this.

9. Thurman Munson C (9) - Better than I realized - just a hair behind Freehan. Better career D, better career O, but Freehan played more and had the higher peak. Very, very close.

10. Wally Schang C (10) - Basically the best MLB catcher between Bresnahan and Cochrane/Hartnett. As valuable a hitter as Campanella or Bennett. Defense questionable, only thing keeping him from the #7 spot on this ballot.

11. Ben Taylor (11) - Consider me convinced that he was really was a great hitter. I was underrating him.

12. Norm Cash 1B (12) - Wow, history books, where have you been hiding this guy? .671 career OWP! +109 fielding runs! That puts his defense at a level with Roger Connor, George Kelly and Frank McCormick among the all-time greats. He has more FRAA than Vic Power, for example.

13. Dave Bancroft SS (13) - Let's see. You've got a SS with a .498 OWP, during an era where the average SS has a .414 OWP. He's also one of the 15 most valuable defensive shortstops in history to this point. He had a reasonably long career as well, though his in-season durability wasn't great. Think that's a valuable player? I do.

14. Cupid Childs 2B (14) - Good hitter, and I overestimated how much 2B was a hitter's position in his time. Very similar to Stan Hack, shorter career though. He gets a bump this week, Chris Cobb's Sisler analysis showed Childs pretty favorably.

15. Jim Fregosi (15) - I like middle infielders that can hit.

Honorable Mention:

16. Burleigh Grimes SP (16) - Faced pretty steep competition (.520 RSI), so his 256-226 RSI and 107 ERA+ understates his record somewhat. I wouldn't be against his election at this point - his hitting puts him over the top. Did very well with my re-tooled system.

17. Dobie Moore (17) - Tough to get right, but I'm feeling a little more peaky this time around.

18. Roger Bresnahan (18) - Great hitter / catcher = tough combination to overlook.

19. Quincy Trouppe (19) - Convince me that I should have him higher than Bresnahan . . . not being sarcastic.

20. Pie Traynor (20) - The more I look, the more I think we missed on this one.

21. Phil Rizzuto (21) - Lost 3 prime years to WWII. Great defense, and a huge year in 1950 also.

22. Don Newcombe (22) - Gets color-line and Korea credit.

23. Cecil Travis (23) - Career destroyed by WWII. I'm comfortable with projecting his 1942-45 at a high enough level to get him here.

24. Tony Lazzeri (24) - Great hitter for a 2B. Short career and fielding keep him from being higher.

25. Waite Hoyt (26) - Peak is nothing special, but good pitcher for a long time.

26. Bucky Walters (27) - Big years, good hitter for a pitcher, career kind of short though.

27. Bob Johnson (28) - Overlooked star, not much difference between Johnson and Medwick.

28. Jimmy Wynn CF (29) - I thought I'd have him higher. Man this ballot is jammed with great players.

29. Tommy Henrich (30) - Very underrated, gets a ton of war credit.

30. Nellie Fox (31) - Long solid career at a key position.

31. Luis Tiant (n/e) - Very nice career. Could see ranking him a little higher.

32. Alejandro Oms (32) - Pretty good hitter, conservative ranking, I really don't have a handle on him.

33. Reggie Smith (n/e) - Very good player, but missed a lot of time in his good years. Only played 150 games 3 times.

34. Dick Redding (33) - I'm just not seeing what everyone else does for some reason.

35. Dutch Leonard (34) - Pretty good pitcher at his best. Never had the one huge year, but had a bunch of very good ones.

36. John McGraw (35) - KJOK will be happy he's back on my list . . . if only he wasn't so brittle.

37. Ken Boyer (37) - Compared to their peers, I cannot see rating him ahead of Traynor.

38. Edd Roush (38) - We've elected worse (coughmaxcareycough).

39. Dom DiMaggio (39) - Huge beneficiary of war credit.

40. Andy Cooper (40) - Giving the Negro League Committee credit on this one too. His 225-175 equivalent record is similar to Tiant, Harder.

Bobby Murcer - could have him a little higher. One of the best players in baseball 1971-72. Also gets credit for military service, so his career wasn't as short as it looks on the surface. I can't rank him ahead of Roush.
   120. DL from MN Posted: October 30, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#2228261)
> Quincy Trouppe (19) - Convince me that I should have him higher than Bresnahan . . .
> not being sarcastic.

For me the big difference is the estimated 3000 plate appearance advantage for Trouppe. Bresnahan was a part time player from age 30 on and Trouppe was still a productive full-time player.
   121. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 09:48 PM (#2228287)
For me the big difference is the estimated 3000 plate appearance advantage for Trouppe. Bresnahan was a part time player from age 30 on and Trouppe was still a productive full-time player.

But how many PAs would Trouppe have had during Bresnahan's era (and visa versa)?
   122. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 09:52 PM (#2228292)
Besides Tom D, Devin, Shane, and KJOK have contacted me that they will be posting ballots.
   123. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 30, 2006 at 10:09 PM (#2228306)
But how many PAs would Trouppe have had during Bresnahan's era (and visa versa)?

My catcher bonus system normalizes all backstops up to a certain PA threshold. If you're under like 525 or so PAs, you get an upward adjustment that cannot exceed so-and-so PA, blah, blah, blah, then adjusts WS up to the appropriate level. But it's only for seasons in which a guy actually plays any number of games at catcher AND doesn't make the PA threshold. So 2 games at catcher and 100 at CF, and 400 PA gets the guy an adjustment upward, but only proportionate to the games at catcher.

When I perform those adjustments on Tralee and Trouppe's MLEs, their peaks come out almost identically, and Trouppe comes out just a little ahead based on a few more PAs. But that's only for the known data. Then I mentally adjust for the ND and boxing years, and there's enough separation to move Trouppe into Simmons/Carter/Torre and away from Bresnahan/Howard/Schang territory.

Naturally, everyone else's mileage will vary.
   124. jimd Posted: October 30, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2228330)
Ballot for 1988 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) W. STARGELL -- Marginal candidate for upper-half of HOM; OTOH, nobody else on the ballot is better. Prime 1965-1975. Best player candidate in 1973 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1966, 1971, 1973; WS adds 1974. Other star seasons include 1965, 1969, 1975, 1978, and 1972 at 1B. Honorable Mention in 1967.

2) B. WALTERS -- He moved up considerably in my pitcher reevaluation. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

3) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

4) J. WYNN -- Scored much higher than I thought he would; excellent prime. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

5) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

6) C. CHILDS -- Best offensive 2b of the 90's. Prime 1890-98. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1890, 1892, and 1896; WS adds 1893, 1894, 1895, WARP adds 1897. Other star seasons include 1891. HM in 1898.

7) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

8) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career and peak. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

9) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

10) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Was an all-star OF longer than Medwick, Averill, etc. Prime 1914-1922. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

11) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but he was ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

12) P. TRAYNOR -- Reassessing IF in general also. Traynor and Bancroft were major beneficiaries. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

13) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

14) D. BANCROFT -- See Traynor. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

15) T. MUNSON -- Reassessing catchers in general. Close to Howard and Freehan. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

16) D. MOORE -- Just missed; pushed off by Tiant.

17) D. TROUT -- Prime 1942-48. Best player in baseball, 1944. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1944 and 1946; WARP adds 1943. HM in 1942, 1945, and 1948.

18) R. SCHALK -- Excellent defensive catcher; best in MLB 5 times by both WARP and WS. Prime 1913-22. 1st team MLB All-Star (C) 1917; WARP adds 1916. Other star seasons include 1913, 1914, 1919, 1920, and 1922.

19) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

20) R. BRESNAHAN -- I appear to have a catcher's glut. Prime 1903-08. First team MLB All-Star (C) 1906 and 1908; WS adds 1905. Other star seasons include 1907, 1911, plus 1903 in CF. HM in 1904 in CF.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Wilbur Wood, Norm Cash,
23-24) Dick Redding, Dizzy Dean,
25-26) Nellie Fox, Quincy Trouppe,
27-28) Jake Beckley, Jim McCormick,
29-30) Hugh Duffy, Edd Roush,
   125. KJOK Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:55 PM (#2228406)
Using OWP w/playing time, Player Overall Wins Score, and defense (Win Shares/BP/Fielding Runs) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average, Player Overall WInsScore and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitchers, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries, and lightly look at WARP1.

1. ROGER BRESNAHAN, C. 23 POW, 75 WARP1, 282 RCAP & .651 OWP in 5,373 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. He’s no Berra, but was best Catcher from 1880s – 1915.

2. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. 20 POW, 78 WARP1, 459 RCAP & .727 OWP in 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships. Oh, AND at least 2nd best 3B between 1875-1900!

3. WILLIE STARGELL, LF/1B. 31 POW, 110 WARP1, 448 RCAP & .693 OWP in 9,026 PAs. Def: FAIR. Excellent hitter. Probably only McCovey was more “feared” in the NL during his career.

4. BOB JOHNSON, LF. 36 POW, 102 WARP1, 319 RCAP & .651 OWP in 8,047 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Many many very very good seasons. Best OF candidate not elected.

5. REGGIE SMITH, CF/RF. 32 POW, 99 WARP1, 281 RCAP & .653 OWP in 8,050 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Hit like a 1st baseman, yet could play multiple defensive positions well.

6. FRANK CHANCE, 1B. 23 POW, 72 WARP1, 308 RCAP & .720 OWP in 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons better than Beckley’s best. Deadball era offensive stars continue to get no respect….

7. QUINCY TROUPPE, C. Estimated 115 OPS+ over 8,462 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Comp looks to be Gary Carter. He could hit for a catcher, and seems to have been AT LEAST average defensively. One of the best major league teams was willing to give him a chance at age 39, which I think says something about his talent.

8. BEN TAYLOR, 1B. Estimated 138 OPS+ over 9,091 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Comps are Fred McGriff and Mule Suttles. Too bad his best years were pre-live ball, pre-Negro Leagues, but we do have his 1921 stats that show his greatness. He’s Bill Terry plus about 3 more Bill Terry type seasons.

9. DAVE BANCROFT, SS. 36 POW, 111 WARP1, 157 RCAP & .498 OWP in 8,244 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT. Similar to Bobby Wallace and Ozzie Smith, so surprised he’s not getting more votes.

10. NORM CASH, 1B. 31 POW, 102 WARP1, 295 RCAP & .671 OWP in 7,910 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Obviously underrated player who just needs more in-season PT to make a high ballot slot.

11. CUPID CHILDS, 2B. 30 POW, 104 WARP1, 354 RCAP & .609 OWP in 6,762 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Best 2nd baseman of the 1890’s, but only around 4th best in 30 year period.

12. JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. 23 POW, 115 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .596 OWP in 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Possibly best first baseman from 1880 – 1920, but I’m not 100% sold he was better than Chance or even Taylor.

13. DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

14. THURMAN MUNSON, C. 25 POW, 72 WARP1, 174 RCAP & .571 OWP in 5,903 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Initially thought his career would be too short to make my ballot, but in comparison to his contemporaries, he still graded out around # 4-5 in his 30-year window.

15. TONY MULLANE, P.30 POW, 89 WARP1, 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He’s back again! He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being a TOP 5 ballot player.



LUIS TIANT, P.22 POW, 102 WARP1, 172 RSAA, 185 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 ERA+ in 3,486 innings. Comparable to Dutch Leonard.


KEN BOYER, 3B. 20 POW, 96 WARP1, 122 RCAP & .561 OWP in 8,268 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Slightly early demise and only ‘very good’ offense keeps him from being higher.

NELLIE FOX, 2B. 14 POW, 93 WARP1, 129 RCAP & .483 OWP in 10,349 PAs. Def: EXCELLENT. Too many other quality 2nd basemen still better than him, such as Childs.

JIMMY WYNN, CF. 30 POW, 98 WARP1, 202 RCAP & .634 OWP in 8,010 PA’s. Def: AVERAGE. Better than Kiner overall.

DOBIE MOORE, SS. Wish we had good MLE’s for him. Hard to tell if he’s ballot-worthy or far from it. Could be close to Hugh Jennings comp. Based on reputation and known data, just not quite there.

EDD ROUSH, CF. 10 POW, 110 WARP1, 205 RCAP & .622 OWP in 8,156 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Edge of playing CF not enough to overcome Bob Johnson’s edge in offense.

CHARLIE KELLER, LF. 22 POW, 67 WARP1, 291 RCAP & .748 OWP in 4,604 PAs. Def: AVERAGE He was very good when he played, but McGraw & Chance were even better ‘short career’ choices relative to position, peers, etc.

PETE BROWNING, CF/LF. 28 POW, 95 WARP1, 478 RCAP & .745 OWP in 5,315 PAs. Def: POOR. Baseball’s premier hitter in the 1880’s. Much better hitter than any eligible outfielder, but only around 6th best CF in 30 year period.

HUGH DUFFY, CF/LF. 5 POW, 95 WARP1, 154 RCAP & .623 OWP in 7,838 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Just not in the elite OF class offensively, and fielding runs doesn’t even like his defense (-31).

CHARLIE JONES, LF. 19 POW, 71 WARP1, 245 RCAP & .697 OWP in 3,958 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Not a lot of PAs due to short schedules and suspension, but lots of offensive production.

BUCKY WALTERS, P.25 POW, 89 WARP1, 161 RSAA, 166 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 115 ERA+ in 3,104 innings. Hitting helps him, but doesn’t quite stack up to other pitchers.

GEORGE VAN HALTREN, CF. 12 POW, 118 WARP1, 167 RCAP & .620 OWP in 8,992 PAs. Def: FAIR. He wasn’t that far above position offensively, and wasn’t that good defensively.
   126. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:17 AM (#2228417)
Apologies again for scraping so close to the deadline. I’m really having trouble finding enough spare time to devote to this.

1988 ballot:

1. Willie Stargell: Top player eligible. Long career, some in-season durability issues, but outstanding when he was in there.

2. Burleigh Grimes: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

3. Roger Bresnahan: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Nellie Fox: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

5. Carl Mays: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935)

6. Ken Boyer: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975)

7. Orlando Cepeda: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

8. Lefty Gomez: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

9. Pie Traynor: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941)

10. Lou Brock: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

11. Dick Redding: Long career flame-thrower, top 5(?) Negro League pitcher. Back on after a few years absence. HOF vote still bothers me a bit; he’d be higher if it didn’t. (eligible 1937, PHOM 1966)

12. Jimmy Wynn: Well-rounded candidate, good peak, career. (eligible 1983)

13. Dizzy Dean: There’s not much besides the incredible, brief peak, but if we’re looking for greatness in candidates, he had it. (eligible 1946)

14. Pete Browning: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)

15. Bob Johnson: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 11 quality seasons in a 13-year career. (eligible 1951)

Required comments:
Cupid Childs: My #3 2b behind Fox (on ballot) and Doyle (off).
Jake Beckley: Very good for a long time. He went into my PHOM in ’26, but I’ve cooled off on him since.
Dobie Moore: High quality, but short career hurts.
Quincy Trouppe: His total absence from the HOF consideration set is most bothersome to me. As someone else pointed out, there’s more speculation involved in his MLEs than in those of other players we’ve considered.
   127. Patrick W Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:17 AM (#2228418)
Reggie Smith begins right behind Beckley. He doesn’t get the bonus points from me, but here’s hoping the warm afterglow of the Cardinals’ championship vaults Boyer into the Hall.

1. Willie Stargell (n/a), Pitt. (N), LF / 1B (’63-’80) (1988) – Looks similar to Buck Leonard in my rankings.
2. Luis Tiant (n/a), Bost. – Clev. (A) SP (’64-’80) (1988) – Right there with Drysdale, Ford and Marichal. Not a slam dunk, but the ballot’s not strong enough to hold him down.
3. Ken Boyer (2), St.L (N), 3B (’55-’68) (1975) – A lot more hitting value than the fielding-dominant infielders further down the ballot. And he was a good defender in his own right.
4. Jimmy Wynn (3), Hou. (N), CF (’63-’76) (1985) – Hitting the ballot the same year as Allen doesn’t make for a favorable comparison. Good hitter - but not as good as Richie – with a relatively short career. Close in overall value in CF as another Richie – Ashburn.
5. Dutch Leonard (4), Wash. (A) SP (’34-’53) (1972) – Amazing how valuable he was before and after the war, the lost time to injury in ’42 and the apparent effects of recovery in ’43-’44 keep him from the 15-18 votes that all his equals seem to be getting. Penalize one guy for playing too good during the war, penalize another for not playing good enough...
6. Dizzy Trout (5), Detr. (A) SP (’39-’52) (1967) – Bob Lemon was better than Dizzy Trout, but Lemon on the cusp while Trout isn’t even the best Dizzy according to the voters is too steep a drop IMO. It would take a war discount of close to 50% to drop him from my ballot, which is about 35-40% below what the quality drop-off actually was. Don’t penalize the players for being in their prime in ’42-’45.
7. Norm Cash (6), Detr. (A), 1B (’60-’74) (1985) – Ben Taylor appears to be the comp, but Cash ranks so close to Dizzy in the total value column that I have raised Taylor 5 spots instead of starting Norm at 14.
8. Alejandro Oms (7), Cuba (--), CF (‘21-‘37) (1965) – I’m not enough of a Cuban baseball expert to be Oms’ biggest fan. On top of the fact that I don’t like the slippery slope his election might lead to.
9. George Van Haltren (8), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Would already be in but for the fluke scheduling quirk in ’31. Here’s hoping it won’t take much longer.
10. Ben Taylor (9), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – I am comfortable being Ben’s 2nd-3rd biggest fan.
11. Bob Johnson (10), Phila. (A), LF (’33-’45) (1985) – Late start to his career, but every season a quality one, and 0.304 EQA always looks good on the resume.
12. Bobby Bonds (11), S.F. (N), RF (’68-’81) (1987) – Definitely a player who needs more than one year of consideration, but in the P-Hall he is a one-and-done candidate.
13. Dom DiMaggio (13), Bost. (A), CF (’40-’52) (1978) – 2nd best OF to date for FRAR (Speaker), and Dom’s rate is much better than Tris. That, along with the fact that he’s not Marion with the bat, gets him on the ballot. 4th highest war credit bonus to date (Pesky, Greenberg, Feller) I have measured this by pct. of career above actual career, so he beats out Ted. Adding up the total credit would be a different story of course.
14. Luis Aparicio (14), Chic. – Balt. (A), SS (’56-’73) (1987) – Luis causes a re-evaluation of the infielders. They are slotted correctly here amongst each other, but not yet among the pitchers and outfielders. All these guys could slot between spots 8-30 at the drop of a hat.
15. Jake Beckley (15), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.

Cupid Childs – Rizzuto first.
Nellie Fox – Not the best glove man missing from the ballot.
Dobie Moore – Not enough career. Spot Poles and Bill Monroe – neither particularly close to the ballot anymore – are ranked higher on my ballot.
Quincy Trouppe – I think I spent the first half overrating catchers, and now apparently I underrate them relative to the group. To my recollection, I have not changed my methodology regarding backstops in a long while, so I’m blaming you guys. J

Three players were in last year’s top ten, but not in my top 15 this year.
   128. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:30 AM (#2228427)
OK, first off, because I know you were all waiting with bated breath, my final PHoM pick last year was Ken Boyer over Joe Medwick. And as usual when I’m beating myself up over something like that, it doesn’t matter. Stargell and Medwick make my PHoM this year. (And man, did I not want to do that. Score one for intellectual consistency.)

1. Willie Stargell (new) Not a dominating candidate, but a very good one, and compiled enough of a career to be tops among the candidates. Makes my PHoM this year.

2. Jimmy Wynn (3) I do sort of worry that I'm just voting for the uber-stats, but the more I've looked at him, the more I like him. Out of all the “pure” CF candidates currently out there, his OPS+ beats everyone but Wally Berger, who has other issues. Made my PHoM in 1985.

3. Dick Redding (2) Now that Mendez is in, my highest ranking pitcher. Seems to have a pretty good peak, and also has somewhat of a career argument. I think he’s close enough to Mendez that they both should be in or out. Made my PHoM in 1973.

4. Bill Monroe (4) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. People like to promote the 1890s as underrepresented, but that doesn't mean the 00s and 10s are overrepresented. Anybody who wants to vote for Marvin Williams should look at Monroe as well. Made my PHoM in 1939.

5. Dobie Moore (5) The new MLEs don’t hurt him all that much IMO. We honestly don’t know exactly how good he was with the Wreckers. If he started out batting eighth, I don’t think he was putting up great numbers from the get-go. For a long time I had him just behind Jennings, but now I've decided he was clearly better than Jennings - perhaps not as high a peak, but his excellence endured longer. If you could have either one as a 22-year-old, why wouldn't you take Moore? Made my PHoM in 1968.

6. George Van Haltren (6) A very good player for a long time, even if he was never truly great. I can't see how people can have Beckley ahead of him when you compare them season-by-season. Made my PHoM in 1972.

7. Quincy Trouppe (8) I don’t quite credit him with all the At-Bats that the MLEs do, but a 22-year career of mostly catching goes a long way, and all the evidence says that he was very good. A better hitter than Mackey, and had a more substantial career. Catcher defense is important, but not enough to make up for everything else. Made my PHoM in 1961.

8. Gavvy Cravath (10) With the basic 07, 09-11 additions, this is where I have him. A better peak than Johnson, but less consistent. WARP isn't too fond of him (I really need to redo my attempted WS-to-WARP translation with the latest system). Made my PHoM last year.

9. Tommy Leach (9) Best Friend no more. Drops because I had to admit that Robinson was a better 3B candidate, and I wasn’t all that crazy about his argument either. I may have been overrating 3Bmen in general. Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. One of the most complete players on the ballot. Made my PHoM in 1940.

10. Cupid Childs (11) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). I thought putting him here was bumping him a bit for minor league credit, but it isn’t. But since I was considering it, he stays here. Made my PHoM in 1932.

11. Jake Beckley. (12) I still think his typical season was pretty weak, but he has a ton of career value, and was more consistent than Cash and especially Cepeda. Moved past Medwick/Johnson because I really do think the 30s are overrepresented. Made my PHoM last year.

12. Ken Boyer (13) Moves up because he missed time in the minors due to military service. It doesn't help his peak, but gives him enough of a career boost to move pass Clarkson. I see his numbers as comparable to Elliott, with a higher peak. When you add in a wartime penalty for Elliott, it’s not a question. Made my PHoM last year.

(13A Joe Medwick)

13. Bob Johnson (14) I'm impressed by his consistency, he was an above-average player every year for 13 seasons. Now that Medwick’s in my PHoM, Johnson <u>will</u> make it eventually.

14. Bus Clarkson (17) Parallels Elliot’s career, but with war credit he comes out ahead, and he presumably had more defensive value. Still a high ranking for a relatively unknown player IMO.

15. Norm Cash (20) A lot of good years, but I really think he's the Beckley of the 60s, with a shorter career (although that's not really much of a criticism).
(15A Clark Griffith, 15B Biz Mackey)

16. Reggie Smith (new) Very similar to Medwick/Johnson, but the lack of a peak holds him back. Also a bit worried about SNT syndrome.

17. Edd Roush (30) Jumps up after realizing there are strong similarities to Wynn, but there are still important differences.

18. Phil Rizzuto (21) He does come out as comparable to Sewell in total value, but it’s very defense-heavy, and even if it’s unfair, I’m less certain about that.

19. Charlie Keller (19) I see him as distinctly better than Kiner. If Keller had been the biggest star on the Pirates and Kiner was the second banana on the Yankees, King Kong would probably be in the HoF. (Especially because DiMaggio wouldn’t have put up with Ralph’s pursuit of fame.)

20. Bobby Bonds (15) On further review, I was a bit too bullish on him, but he is quite good.

Train to catch – see prior ballots for more info. Tiant came in 21st.
   129. DanG Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:58 AM (#2228449)
Gimme a minute and I'll post an abbreviated ballot.
   130. Spencer Benedict Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:59 AM (#2228450)
This supercedes any of my prior darft submissions.

1. Cupid Childs - maybe it was just the era, but he got around to score an awful lt for a middle infielder.
2. Willie Stargell - gave me nightmares as a young Met fan
3. Lou Brock - I'm as sabermetric as the next guy, but the SB's and career value add up.
4. Tony Oliva - ranking improved with every iteration of my ballot. Consistently near the top of the leader boards for about eight years. Most players who do that can get by with bulk stats, which should mean nothing but often get a player over the top.
5. Jimmy Wynn
6. Jake Beckley - career value
7. Dobie Moore - .360 hitting SS
8. Orlando Cepeda - ranks above Cash just because I think he inspired more fear.
9. Norm Cash
10. Ken Boyer - Maybe I discriminate on the basis of position a little, but excellent for a decade.
11. Hugh Duffy
12. Carl Mays
13. Nellie Fox
14. Lefty Gomez
15. Pete Browning

Trouppe fell off my ballot. I will reconsider next time but I don't see right now ho he is more worthy than the other guys on my list.
   131. Spencer Benedict Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:00 AM (#2228453)
My ballot did not hit for some reasdon. Let me recreate.
   132. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:01 AM (#2228454)
Since Dan asked for permission before the deadline, I'll allow his, but no one else's because of the closeness of the election.
   133. Spencer Benedict Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:04 AM (#2228455)
Nevermind, there it is.
   134. DanG Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:07 AM (#2228457)
Nothing too radical. Sorry for the rush job.

1) Willie Stargell – Just a bit behind McCovey.

2) George Van Haltren

3) Edd Roush

4) Tommy Leach

5) Jake Beckley

6) Burleigh Grimes

7) Charlie Keller

8) Cupid Childs

9) Roger Bresnahan

10) Jimmy Ryan

11) Ken Boyer

12) Wally Schang

13) Rabbit Maranville

14) Mickey Vernon – First time on ballot. 356 AWS, better peak than Beckley.

15) Nellie Fox – Second time on ballot. Weak AL holds him down.
   135. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:14 AM (#2228463)
The election is now over. Results will be posted shortly.
   136. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:05 PM (#2229605)
Can we lay off the double entendres (or do I just have a dirty mind)? See Dick Redding comment.

I forgot to comment on this. Even though I can appreciate a good double entendre personally and dabble with them every now and then :-), we have to remember that we have people who visit this site who may view us in a less serious light by doing so. Besides, if I were a family member of Dick Redding, for example, I wouldn't be too happy seeing his name used that way, even though it was meant in good fun.

Since I'm not the Commish and even if I were I wouldn't censor anyone in regard to that, all I ask is that we think about what we post.
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