BBTF's Hall of Merit Discussion :: 1988 Results: “Pops” Part of Hall of Merit Family; Cupid Gets Shot With Inductee Arrow!

Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, October 30, 2006

1988 Results: “Pops” Part of Hall of Merit Family; Cupid Gets Shot With Inductee Arrow!

In his first year of eligibility, legendary Pittsburgh Pirate slugger Willie Stargell was elected to the Hall of Merit with 84% of all possible points.

Unlike “Pops,” Cleveland Spider standout second baseman Cupid Childs broke Rube Waddell’s 2-year record for longest wait until eventual induction by 11 years in his 82st year of eligibility. He achieved 35% of all possible points.

Rounding ou the top-ten were: Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Dobie Moore, Charley Jones (huge jump - first time in the top-ten in his 91st try!), Jake Beckley, Edd Roush (first time in top-ten with #51!), and Pete Browning (first time in the top-ten since 1906!).

Breaking the 1-year record by 5, there were 93 candidates who found themselves on a ballot.

RK   LY  Player                   PTS  Bal   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1  n/e  Willie Stargell         1093   53  32  4  4  1  3  1  1  2     1  1     1     2
 2    4  Cupid Childs             460   31   2  4  4  1  2  3     4  1  2  4     1  2  1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 3    5  Ken Boyer                429   33      1  5  2  2  3     1  3  5  6  2  2  1   
 4    7  Jimmy Wynn               411   31   1  2  1  3  5  1     4  1  4     3  1  4  1
 5    6  Nellie Fox               372   26      2  4  2  2  3  4  1  2  1     2  1  1  1
 6    9  Dobie Moore              352   24   3  3  1  2  2     2  2     1  2  1  1  1  3
 7   16  Charley Jones            346   21   3  5  1  1  1  2  2  1           1  2     2
8T    8  Jake Beckley             334   24   1  3  2     3  2  1  1  1  3  2  1     2  2
8T   11  Edd Roush                334   24      2  4     5  1  1  3  1  1     1  2  2  1
10   14  Pete Browning            315   22   2  1  5  2  1     1  1  2     1  1  1  2  2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11   15  Hugh Duffy               312   23   1  2  1  1  1  1  4  2  1  3  2  1  1     2
12   10  Quincy Trouppe           311   22      3  3     2     5     2  1  2  1  2     1
13   13  Cannonball Dick Redding  300   20   1  3  2  1  2  1  3  1     1  2     1  1  1
14   12  Charlie Keller           289   19   2  1  1  6  1     1  1  2        1  1  2   
15   17  Bucky Walters            279   20   1  3           4  2  1  3  1  1  1     1  2
16   19  Gavvy Cravath            263   21      1  1  4  2        2     1  3  2  2  3   
17   20  Bob Johnson              213   16   1  1     1  2  1  1  3        1  1  3     1
18   18  George Van Haltren       197   14      1  1  2     2  2  2  1  1     1        1
19   27  Orlando Cepeda           179   15            3     1  1  2     1  3  2  1     1
20   25  Tommy Leach              176   14            3  2     1  1  1  2     2  1     1
21   23  Roger Bresnahan          174   12   1  1  1        1  2  1  1  2  1  1         
22   21  Alejandro Oms            173   13   1        1  1  3  1  1     1     2  1  1   
23   24  Norm Cash                170   14         2        3  2     1  1     2     2  1
24   22  Burleigh Grimes          161   11      2        1  3  1     1  2              1
25   29  Mickey Welch             143   11   1        2  1     2  1        1           3
26T  26  Bobby Bonds              141   12            2     3     1        1  2  1  1  1
26T  28  Lou Brock                141   12      1  1        1     1  1  1  1  2  1  1  1
28  n/e  Luis Tiant               136   12      1     1        1     1  2  1  1  2  1  1
29   34  Tommy Bridges            117    9                  2  2  2  1  1  1            
30   30  Dizzy Dean               116    9         3  1              1  1        1  2   
31   31  Larry Doyle              115    7      2     1  1     1     1     1            
32   35  Bob Elliott              107   10      1                 2        1  3     3   
33  n/e  Reggie Smith             103    9         1     1        2  1  1        1     2
34   38  Thurman Munson            99   10               1     1     1  1  1     2  2  1
35   32  Ben Taylor                97    8      1     1           1     2  1           2
36   37  Wally Schang              94    7      1  1           1     1  1     1     1   
37   33  Elston Howard             85    9                           2  1  2  1  1  1  1
38   36  Vic Willis                82    7            1     1        2     1  1     1   
39   56  Frank Howard              79    9                        1     1  1  2  1  1  2
40T  46  Carl Mays                 76    6               3                 1  2         
40T  39  Phil Rizzuto              76    6         2              1  1        1        1
42   41  John McGraw               76    5      1     1  1     1                       1
43   45  Chuck Klein               68    6         1  1                    1     2  1   
44   40  Pie Traynor               66    5   1              1        1        1        1
45   49  Dave Bancroft             61    6               1           2           1  1  1
46   55  Ernie Lombardi            61    5         1     1        1                 2   
47   43  Addie Joss                61    4      1           1     1        1            
48   42  Sal Bando                 60    6                  1        1     1  1  1     1
49   70T Tony Oliva                55    4            2              1        1         
50   44  Jimmy Ryan                53    5                     1     1  1        2      
51   50T Bill Monroe               50    4            1              2        1         
52T  54  Vern Stephens             49    4                  1        2     1            
52T  50T Dizzy Trout               49    4               1  1              1     1      
54   52  Al Rosen                  48    5                  1           1  1           2
55   48  Rabbit Maranville         45    5                           1     1     2  1   
56T  64  Lefty Gomez               43    4            1           1                 1  1
56T  47  Sam Rice                  43    4                  1     1              1  1   
58   57  Ed Williamson             41    3                  1  1     1                  
59   58  Luis Aparicio             40    4                     1     1              2   
60   62T Bobby Veach               39    4                              2     1  1      
61   53  Ed Cicotte                38    3            1     1                          1
62T  61  Frank Chance              35    3                  1        1           1      
62T  60  Dutch Leonard             35    3               1           1              1   
64   59  Jack Quinn                26    2         1                             1      
65   65  George J. Burns           24    3                                    2        1
66   67  Don Newcombe              24    2                        1     1               
67   77T Mickey Vernon             21    2                     1                    1   
68   62T Tony Mullane              20    2                     1                       1
69T  73T Wilbur Cooper             17    1            1                                 
69T n/e  Sparky Lyle               17    1            1                                 
71T  70T Fielder Jones             16    1               1                              
71T  66  Urban Shocker             16    1               1                              
73   73T Artie Wilson              15    1                  1                           
74T n/e  Bus Clarkson              14    2                                          2   
74T  72  Jim Fregosi               14    2                                       1     1
76T  75  Sam Leever                14    1                     1                        
76T  83T Cecil Travis              14    1                     1                        
78T  77T Fred Dunlap               12    1                           1                  
78T  68  Hack Wilson               12    1                           1                  
80T n/e  Tony Lazzeri              11    1                              1               
80T n/e  Bill Mazeroski            11    1                              1               
82T  80  Kiki Cuyler               10    1                                 1            
82T  81  Sol White                 10    1                                 1            
84T  82  George Kell                9    1                                    1         
84T  79  Virgil Trucks              9    1                                    1         
86T  76  Dom DiMaggio               8    1                                       1      
86T  83T Hilton Smith               8    1                                       1      
86T  83T Harvey Kuenn               8    1                                       1      
86T  69  Herman Long                8    1                                       1      
86T  83T Vada Pinson                8    1                                       1      
91T  87T Wally Berger               7    1                                          1   
91T  87T Heinie Manush              7    1                                          1   
93  n/e  Dick Bartell               6    1                                             1
Ballots Cast: 54

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 30, 2006 at 11:50 PM | 71 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:19 AM (#2228467)

Congrats to Willie and for Cupid's election after I almost gave up on him a while back!

Since I haven't installed Excell on my new laptop yet, I'll need a few minutes before I can post all of the numbers for this election.

HOF-not-HOM through 1988

1  Aparicio, Luis
2. Bancroft, Dave
3. Beckley, Jake
4  Bender, Chief
5  Bottomley, Jim
6  Bresnahan, Roger
7  Brock, Lou
8  Chance, Frank
9  Chesbro, Jack
10 Combs, Earle
11 Cuyler, Kiki
12 Dandridge, Ray
13 Dean, Dizzy
14 Duffy, Hugh
15 Evers, Johnny
16 Ferrell, Rick
17 Gomez, Lefty
18 Grimes, Burleigh
19 Hafey, Chick
20 Haines, Jesse
21 Hooper, Harry
22 Hoyt, Waite
23 Hunter, Catfish
24 Jackson, Travis
25 Johnson, Judy
26 Joss, Addie
27 Kell, George
28 Kelly, George
29 Klein, Chuck
30 Lindstrom, Freddie
31 Lombardi, Ernie
32 Manush, Heinie
33 Maranville, Rabbit
34 Marquard, Rube
35 McCarthy, Tommy
36 McGraw, John 
37 Pennock, Herb
38 Rice, Sam
39 Roush, Edd
40 Schalk, Ray
41 Tinker, Joe
42 Traynor, Pie
43 Waner, Lloyd
44 Welch, Mickey
45 Wilson, Hack
46 Youngs, Ross

HOM-not-HOF

1  Allen, Dick 
2  Ashburn, Richie
3  Barnes, Ross
4  Beckwith, John
5  Bennett, Charlie
6  Brown, Ray
7  Brown, Willard
8  Bunning, Jim
9  Caruthers, Bob
10 Childs, Cupid
11 Dahlen, Bill
12 Davis, George
13 Doby, Larry
14 Ferrell, Wes
15 Foster, Willie 
16 Freehan, Bill
17 Glasscock, Jack
18 Gordon, Joe
19 Gore, George
20 Grant, Frank
21 Groh, Heinie
22 Hack, Stan
23 Hill, Pete
24 Hines, Paul
25 Jackson, Joe*
26 Johnson, Home Run
27 Mackey. Biz
28 Magee, Sherry
29 McPhee, Bid
30 McVey, Cal
31 Méndez, José
32 Minoso, Minnie
33 Newhouser, Hal
34 Pearce, Dickey
35 Pierce, Billy
36 Pike, Lip
37 Richardson, Hardy
38 Rogan, Bullet Joe
39 Santo, Ron
40 Santop, Louis
41 Sheckard, Jimmy
42 Start, Joe
43 Stearnes, Turkey
44 Stovey, Harry
45 Suttles, Mule
46 Sutton, Ezra
47 Torre, Joe
48 Torriente, Cristobal
49 Wells, Willie
50 White, Deacon
51 Williams, Smokey Joe
52 Wilson, Jud

*  not eligible for the HOF 

2. Rick A. Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:36 AM (#2228476)

As Charley Jones best friend for quite a few decades, I just want to say

WOO HOO!! Way to go Charley!!

3. I was saying Boo-urns Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:36 AM (#2228478)

HOMers sorted by the percentage of available points in the year of election. Players in bold were elected in their first year of eligibility.

Stargell narrowly misses out on the "Easy Choice" category. Yeah, he was an easy choice, but you get the picture. Childs is near the bottom, as expected, but he manages to stay ahead of last place.

Next year, I predict we'll have a pair of no-brainers, and maybe even an inner circle guy?

INNER CIRCLE, BABY!

100.0 - Cy Young (1917)
100.0 - Honus Wagner (1923)
100.0 - Walter Johnson (1933)
100.0 - Babe Ruth (1941)
100.0 - Lou Gehrig (1944)
100.0 - Lefty Grove (1947)
100.0 - Joe DiMaggio (1957)
100.0 - Ted Williams (1966)
100.0 - Stan Musial (1969)
100.0 - Mickey Mantle (1974)
100.0 - Willie Mays (1979)
100.0 - Hank Aaron (1982)

NO-BRAINERS (>95)

99.8 - Sam Crawford (1924)
99.7 - Dan Brouthers (1902)
99.5 - Jimmie Foxx (1951)
99.5 - Warren Spahn (1971)
99.4 - Pete Alexander (1936)
99.4 - Josh Gibson (1952)
99.3 - Ty Cobb (1934)
99.2 - Oscar Charleston (1943)
98.9 - Kid Nichols (1911)
98.8 - Nap Lajoie (1922)
98.7 - Bob Gibson (1981)
98.4 - Ed Delahanty (1909)
98.4 - Arky Vaughan (1954)
98.3 - Roy Campanella (1963)
97.9 - Charlie Gehringer (1948)
97.9 - Bob Feller (1962)
97.8 - Eddie Collins (1935)
96.9 - Turkey Stearnes (1946)
96.6 - Satchel Paige (1959)
96.5 - Christy Mathewson (1922)
96.3 - Willie McCovey (1986)
95.8 - Rogers Hornsby (1941)
95.8 - Frank Robinson (1982)
95.7 - George Davis (1915)
95.7 - Carl Hubbell (1949)
95.4 - Eddie Mathews (1974)
95.3 - Paul Waner (1950)
95.3 - Mel Ott (1952)

EASY CHOICES (>85)

94.9 - Jesse Burkett (1912)
94.8 - Smokey Joe Williams (1936)
94.8 - Johnny Mize (1959)
94.7 - Robin Roberts (1972)
94.7 - Ernie Banks (1977)
94.6 - Duke Snider (1970)
94.5 - Yogi Berra (1969)
94.4 - Deacon White (1898)
94.0 - Paul Hines (1898)
94.0 - Jim O'Rourke (1899)
94.0 - Jackie Robinson (1962)
93.7 - Al Simmons (1946)
93.2 - Roger Connor (1903)
93.1 - Roberto Clemente (1978)
92.1 - Gabby Hartnett (1947)
92.0 - Louis Santop (1932)
91.9 - Pop Lloyd (1935)
91.9 - Al Kaline (1980)
91.7 - Luke Appling (1956)
91.5 - Bill Dickey (1953)
90.6 - Harry Heilmann (1937)
90.3 - Buck Leonard (1955)
90.0 - John Clarkson (1900)
89.1 - Billy Hamilton (1907)
89.1 - Hank Greenberg (1953)
88.9 - Bill Dahlen (1915)
88.3 - Mickey Cochrane (1943)
88.2 - Cristobal Torriente (1937)
87.7 - Ron Santo (1980)
87.7 - Harmon Killebrew (1981)
87.2 - Joe Cronin (1951)
86.7 - Frankie Frisch (1944)
85.2 - Cap Anson* (1903)
85.2 - Fred Clarke (1917)

* Six voters boycotted Anson in 1903.

SOLID HoMERS (>70)

84.3 - Willie Stargell (1988)
84.0 - King Kelly (1899)
83.5 - Ray Brown (1955)
82.9 - Martin Dihigo (1950)
82.6 - Frank Baker (1928)
82.4 - Jack Glasscock (1904)
82.2 - Eddie Plank (1924)
82.0 - Tris Speaker (1934)
81.5 - Goose Goslin (1945)
79.9 - Bullet Rogan (1940)
79.5 - George Gore (1898)
79.1 - Whitey Ford (1973)
78.6 - Hal Newhouser (1960)
78.4 - Willie Wells (1954)
78.2 - Tim Keefe (1901)
76.9 - Zack Wheat (1933)
76.6 - Jud Wilson (1948)
76.2 - George Wright (1901)
75.6 - Ezra Sutton (1908)
75.5 - Hoyt Wilhelm (1978)
74.7 - Buck Ewing (1902)
74.5 - Bid McPhee (1913)
74.4 - Ed Walsh (1920)
74.4 - Joe Jackson (1927)
73.9 - Pud Galvin (1910)
73.5 - John Ward (1900)
73.5 - Cal McVey (1914)
73.4 - Al Spalding (1906)
73.3 - Willie Keeler (1919)
72.5 - Joe Start (1912)
71.7 - Charley Radbourn (1905)
71.3 - Pee Wee Reese (1964)
70.7 - Jimmy Collins (1921)

SPLIT DECISIONS (>50)

69.8 - Amos Rusie (1904)
69.2 - Elmer Flick (1918)
68.9 - Dick Allen (1983)
68.4 - Ross Barnes (1898)
68.3 - Juan Marichal (1980)
68.1 - Joe Kelley (1919)
68.0 - Brooks Robinson (1984)
67.3 - Mule Suttles (1956)
67.1 - Hardy Richardson (1905)
67.1 - Grant Johnson (1925)
66.8 - Mordecai Brown (1925)
66.8 - Ted Lyons (1949)
65.8 - Billy Williams (1983)
65.0 - Bill Foster (1945)
64.9 - Heinie Groh (1938)
63.2 - Harry Stovey (1916)
62.4 - Stan Coveleski (1938)
62.1 - Larry Doby (1965)
61.6 - Jimmy Sheckard (1930)
61.3 - Frank Grant (1926)
61.3 - Monte Irvin (1963)
61.0 - Bobby Wallace (1929)
60.9 - Charlie Bennett (1921)
60.9 - Enos Slaughter (1965)
60.7 - Joe McGinnity (1928)
60.2 - Sherry Magee (1926)
60.0 - Pete Hill (1927)
59.9 - Billy Herman (1958)
59.9 - Joe Torre (1984)
58.0 - John Beckwith (1957)
56.6 - Bob Caruthers (1930)
56.5 - Dazzy Vance (1942)
54.9 - Don Drysdale (1975)
54.6 - Sam Thompson (1929)
54.3 - Sandy Koufax (1972)
53.0 - Dickey Pearce (1931)

VERY SPLIT DECISIONS (<50)

49.1 - Early Wynn (1970)
48.6 - Rube Foster (1932)
48.6 - Stan Hack (1958)
48.5 - Lou Boudreau (1958)
47.0 - José Méndez (1985)
46.3 - Red Faber (1939)
45.6 - Max Carey (1939)
44.9 - Bill Terry (1942)
44.7 - Joe Medwick (1967)
43.0 - Bill Freehan (1985)
41.8 - Joe Gordon (1976)
41.5 - Bob Lemon (1967)
41.3 - Wes Ferrell (1964)
40.5 - Lip Pike (1940)
40.4 - Earl Averill (1961)
39.4 - Ralph Kiner (1987)
39.1 - Billy Pierce (1987)
38.8 - Red Ruffing (1966)
38.7 - Eppa Rixey (1968)
38.2 - George Sisler (1979)
38.1 - Richie Ashburn (1968)
38.1 - Rube Waddell (1986)
37.9 - Willard Brown (1976)
37.7 - Hughie Jennings (1960)
37.7 - Jim Bunning (1977)
36.8 - Cool Papa Bell (1973)
35.5 - Cupid Childs (1988)
35.4 - Biz Mackey (1975)
34.8 - Joe Sewell (1985)
34.7 - Minnie Minoso (1987)
32.8 - Clark Griffith (1971)
32.8 - Bobby Doerr (1972)

4. Rick A. Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:38 AM (#2228479)

Also Moore, Roush, Browning and Wynn in the top ten is very nice also.

About time you guys saw things my way! ;)

5. Max Parkinson Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:39 AM (#2228482)

Two long-time faves make the Top Ten!!!!!

Now 33-35 voters will have to explain why they're not voting for Browning and Charley Jones!

6. Daryn Posted: October 31, 2006 at 01:53 AM (#2228490)

On Jones, it is interesting that Cravath and Keller are not too far behind him, because I see all three as similar players. All three need some fake-o credit (I kid because I love), all have that ~150 OPS+, all have similar length actual MLB careers.

As a careerist, all fall short for me, but I have them Cravath, Keller and Jones. Cravath is in the 20s for me.

7. OCF Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:05 AM (#2228496)

"Missing" voters: James Newburg, Tiboreau, Trevor P.

Highest possible consensus score: +3. Average consensus score: -11.9

Howie Menckel: -4
favre: -5
Rob Wood: -5
Esteban Rivera: -5
Devin McCullen: -6
Andrew M: -6
Juan V: -6
Mark S: -6 (jschmeagol)
John Murphy: -6
Tom D: -6 (new voter)
...
mulder & scully: -11
SWW: -11 (medians)
...
OCF: -13
...
Joe Dimino: -16
Rico Vanian: -17
Eric Chalek: -17
Adam Schafer: -17
EricC: -18
karlmagnus: -19
Jeff M: -20
KJOK: -20
Vaux: -20
Rawagman: -21
|
|
|
yest: -31

Outlier again.

8. Willie Mays Hayes Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:09 AM (#2228497)

OCF, you mind sharing my consensus score; it's the first time I'm out of the upper ten.

Thanks!

9. OCF Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:11 AM (#2228498)

As Charley Jones best friend for quite a few decades, I just want to say

WOO HOO!! Way to go Charley!!

When I get the time (not tonight), I've got a fairly long post coming tracing the evolution of Charley Jones's vote totals - compared to, say, Van Haltren or Jimmy Ryan. The central question: what do we know now that we didn't know 50 or 75 "years" ago?

Two long-time faves make the Top Ten!!!!!

Now 33-35 voters will have to explain why they're not voting for Browning and Charley Jones!

Don't go turning that into a club to beat us over the head. In the case of Jones, I'll be brief: Never saw him before. Don't see him now. Nothing's changed.

10. OCF Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:15 AM (#2228501)

Got Melky: -9

11. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:33 AM (#2228506)

John Murphy: -6

Wow! I haven't been near the top like that since...well, I have no idea when.

12. sunnyday2 Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:58 AM (#2228517)

A little surprise Pops didn't do better, though of course getting elected is not so bad. It's no big surprise that he missed one ballot but 5 more ranked 10-15. A surprise to me.

13. Howie Menckel Posted: October 31, 2006 at 03:01 AM (#2228518)

all-time 'votes points' thru 1988 - those still eligible in 1989 election are in CAPS. electees not in caps.

Beckley gains another 137 pts on GVH, now trails by only 194.5, so 1990's the year he takes over 1st, it appears... Childs closes out an 81-year run in 5th place... Redding moves up to 14th, about to catch Mendez... It took eight decades, but CJones finally passed Ryan.. Bresnahan and Leach remain in a virtual tie.. Moore passes Beckwith for most all-time pts as a Negro Leagues hitter.. Mackey disappears from top 25 at 8930 pts. He's replaced by Roush, who will be the last newcomer to the top 25 for quite a while (ever?).

(no caps for electees, and eliminate non-top 25s and actives)

TOP 25, ALL-TIME
VAN HALTREN 23185.5
BECKLEY 22991
DUFFY 22412.5
BROWNING 19454.5
Childs 18484
Griffith 17924
Waddell 17596
Jennings 16976
WELCH 15807
Sisler 13892

Pike 13399
Sewell 12769
Mendez 12555
REDDING 12357
Thompson 12349
CJONES 12025
RYAN 11931.5
Bennett 11503
BRESNAHAN 11470
TLEACH 11460

Rixey 10789
Caruthers 10704
MOORE 9932
Beckwith 9896
H Stovey 9576
ROUSH 9145

OTHERS IN THE TOP 25 ACTIVE
(Doyle 7465, Cravath 7167, Grimes 6512, Monroe 6482, Walters 6173, Schang 5458, Williamson 5410, Trouppe 5199, McGraw 5107, Oms 4725, Fox 4553, BJohnson 4257, Boyer 4048)

not quite
(Keller 3820, Joss 3575, Willis 3573, McCormick 3148X, Elliott 3013, Chance 2977)

14. Max Parkinson Posted: October 31, 2006 at 03:10 AM (#2228525)

OCF,

Humour doesn't come through sometimes over the keyboard....

I've not gone to tremendous effort to describe my not voting for Beckley, GVH, Welch, Freehan, Pierce, etc. I don't expect any more from those who don't vote for the guys that I find worthy.

15. Howie Menckel Posted: October 31, 2006 at 03:37 AM (#2228540)

Top 10 returning Ps: Redding Walters Grimes Welch Tiant Bridges Dean Willis Mays Joss

Only Redding and Walters made more than a dozen ballots last year (both made 20 of 54).

16. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 31, 2006 at 03:59 AM (#2228550)

I have to say that I am really glad that Cupid Childs is in the HOM. That leaves only two 19th century players who have been PHOM'ed that have not been elected, Duffy and Browning. I am wiling to say that we should be pretty clsoe to wrapping up the 19th century for all intents and purposes but we have three guys in the top 10 and two more in the top 20. Are we in any way overrating these guys?

Also, I am glad that Tiant is where he is. I was afraid that we would elect him too soon without really comparing him to his contemporaries.

17. James Newburg Posted: October 31, 2006 at 07:57 AM (#2228604)

Man, I can't believe that I forgot to vote! My work schedule was different this week and it totally slipped my mind. My vote would have put Trouppe 10th, Keller 11th and Roush into 8th place by himself.

Sorry about that, everyone.

18. Mr Dashwood Posted: October 31, 2006 at 08:27 AM (#2228607)

I still don't see the justification for the gap between Fox and Mazeroski. Two of three evaluation systems I've looked at (Linear Weights and WARP), rate Mazeroski better or as good as Fox. Are we unduly influenced by Bill James?

19. sunnyday2 Posted: October 31, 2006 at 12:06 PM (#2228622)

Childs has been in my PHoM since the 1920s, but he had slipped to around #30 on my ballot, so I have mixed feelings. At least I get to cross him entirely off of my consideration set so that at least reduces clutter.

James, the big question is whether your vote would have changed #2! Apparently not.

20. DL from MN Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:17 PM (#2228689)

Pete Browning also made the top 10 (10th) in 1906.

21. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:27 PM (#2228703)

James,

I thought about that when I saw you hadn't voted. We need your Keller vote! ;-)

Fra,

Of course if there are three systems and two see the players pretty equal and the third gives one player a decent edge, that player is usually going to rank a little higher. However, for me the deciding factor is peak. Many of us don't look at career number or career rate stats, at least not as a primary ranking tool, but instead look at sesaon by season numbers. Nellie Fox had an MVP year in the midst of Mantle's prime and had some other very good years, I don't have anything really close to an MVP year for Maz. That is the real difference. Then again I voted for neither, Fox was #19 and Maz was #53.

22. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:33 PM (#2228711)

Pete Browning also made the top 10 (10th) in 1906.

I missed that, DL. I'll correct this thread. Thanks!

23. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 31, 2006 at 02:44 PM (#2228727)

Huzzah for Jones' climb! Bummer for Trouppe losing ground....

24. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: October 31, 2006 at 03:01 PM (#2228753)

I did this a few years back, but with the backlog elections, the lineups have changed a bit. Here's my "HoM-not-PHoM" and "PHoM-not-HoM" lineups. It doesn't work exactly because the HoM team has 1 more pitcher, but they're short a 2B and 3B, so I'll let them trade Clark Griffith for Nellie Fox*, and do the best they can at 3B.

HoM-not-PHoM lineup
1. Cool Papa Bell 3B
2. Richie Ashburn CF
3. Hughie Jennings SS
4. Ralph Kiner LF
5. Sam Thompson DH
6. George Sisler 1B
7. Max Carey RF
8. Nellie Fox 2B
9. Biz Mackey C
P Rube Foster

PHoM-not-HoM lineup
1. Tommy Leach CF
2. Jake Beckley 1B
3. Gavvy Cravath DH
4. Jimmy Wynn RF
5. Dobie Moore SS
6. Ken Boyer 3B
7. George Van Haltren LF
8. Quincy Trouppe C
9. Bill Monroe 2B
P Dick Redding

Like last time, I'd say they have more strength at the top of the order, but I've got a better back end. If you don't let them trade (and get rid of the DH), then they have a weaker defense - probably using Ashburn at 2B, but so do I, to a lesser extent, to get Cravath's bat in the lineup. They've got 2 starting pitchers, which means in a series of games I'd probably have to pitch Van Haltren a couple of times.

(*It wasn't intentional, but looking at my ballot, there's a good chance exactly that could happen at some point in the future.)

25. Qufini Posted: October 31, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2229213)

Wow, talk about the onslaught of the outfielder. Wynn jumps over Fox, while Jones, Roush, Browning and Duffy all make significant moves as well. And since every action requires an equal and opposite reaction, that means a few others weren't able to move up or actually fell. Beckley, Redding and Van Haltren are all running in place, while Trouppe and Keller both slipped a step.

26. DL from MN Posted: October 31, 2006 at 11:05 PM (#2229245)

Are we really underrepresenting corner players from before 1930 - five in the top 10 returnees?

27. DavidFoss Posted: October 31, 2006 at 11:42 PM (#2229264)

Are we really underrepresenting corner players from before 1930 - five in the top 10 returnees?

Returnees are not inductees. Certainly no one from the backlog has a shot in the next two elections at least. Should we ask for another by-era histogram?

28. sunnyday2 Posted: October 31, 2006 at 11:50 PM (#2229271)

I only see 2.5 cornermen before 1930 in the top 10...?

29. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:16 PM (#2229527)

I should rephrase as OF/1B

30. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:23 PM (#2229535)

In the top-ten, there were 5 infielders and 5 outfielders.

If anyone is getting screwed, it's the pitchers that may need to be better scrutinized.

31. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2229559)

i think we're just where we need to be on pitchers. we've mined them pretty extensively lately, and in 1989, we know that there's about 8 SP guys we'll be electing from the just-retired generation plus any RP candidates that might have a case. i'm very comfy with where we are on hurlers.

32. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2229561)

Billy Pierce debuted at 23rd, I expect Tiant to climb up from 28th into the top 10 over the next few years.

33. sunnyday2 Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:19 PM (#2229581)

I'm with Doc. Not that I'd object if people wanted to jump on the Addie Joss or Don Newcombe bandwagons. Oh, did I say bandwagon, I meant little red wagon. But anyway, we 've got a bunch of guys coming up, there will be pitchers in our top 10--even top 5--very routinely over the next decade.

34. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2229595)

My point was only that, looking at the top-ten, you have outfielders and infielders, but zero pitchers. Whether or not we need more is a different matter (though I will have four in my top-ten next week).

35. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 01, 2006 at 03:44 PM (#2229596)

Billy Pierce debuted at 23rd, I expect Tiant to climb up from 28th into the top 10 over the next few years.

I'll be shocked if that happens, DL.

36. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2006 at 04:51 PM (#2229628)

There are many voters who indicated they placed Tiant conservatively on the 1989 ballot and he had quite a few placements just off ballot. The next couple years are stacked but when we mine the backlog again he'll bubble up and over players with less near ballot support (Beckley, Charley Jones). I'm not saying he'll make it in but I'll be shocked if he doesn't make the top 10.

From the ballot thread:

31. Luis Tiant (n/e) - Very nice career. Could see ranking him a little higher.

Tiant came in 21st.

Tiant was a very nice pitcher and that is worth 32nd place this year.

10. Luis Tiant – 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than recent electee Billy Pierce.

21-25: Roush (1988), Tiant

•Tiant. A tough call—he has the kind of peak I like, but it’s real short, even shorter than those of short-peak guys I favor, like Dean and Willis (at least at that high level). But he was, for a stretch of time, a dominant starter, and his shoulder seasons are nothing to sneeze at. He doesn’t get on ballot, but he debuts not too far off at #22.

Tiant #21

15. Luis Tiant (new) A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.

I think Tiant was just a fraction better than Pierce

20. Luis Tiant

LUIS TIANT - In my consideration set; I'm glad we'll probably have time to digest him compared to his peers. Relative lack of in-season durability could well be what keeps him out of the HOM.

16-20: Tommy Leach, Luis Tiant

11) LUIS TIANT: Pierce-supporters should like him, as he´s similar (but with a lesser peak). However, I wouldn´t be surprised if the HOM in/out line ended up being drawn across the small space that separates them. His support will be tested when the better pitchers of his generation start becoming elegible, starting next "year"

16-20: Bonds, Tiant

Tiant is in the mix but has time to stew at #31. We’ll see how the rest of the 70s players shake out.

Tiant – In some ways his placing (#31) could be interpreted as me taking a wait and see approach. I am not sure he was one of the ten best pitchers of his era and while it was a very strong era for pitching, I am skeptical about placing him very high. Right now I have him below Newcombe and with era adjustment for IP I am actually very comfortable with that. I think electing him early would be a big mistake.

9) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone, I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous. Debuting on the lower half of the ballot, but certainly worth some serious consideration for election.

Tiant – Opening ballot caution, maybe next year.

16-20: Luis Tiant

37. Daryn Posted: November 01, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2229651)

Tiant fan, DL?

38. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2006 at 05:49 PM (#2229663)

Not really, just noticing a pattern. I can't say I'm a fan of anyone yet. My baseball memories begin in about 1984. I've grown to like earlier players (I'm a big fan of Hank Aaron) but there won't be an emotional attachment for a while.

39. Chris Cobb Posted: November 01, 2006 at 06:11 PM (#2229688)

DL wrote:

Billy Pierce debuted at 23rd, I expect Tiant to climb up from 28th into the top 10 over the next few years.

John Murphy wrote:

I'll be shocked if that happens, DL.

I think DL is probably correct that Tiant will trend upwards, as borderline-but-worthy modern predecessors like Pierce, Kiner, and Gordon did.

However, I think it is unlikely that he will do much trending upwards until after the bulk of the 300-game winner crowd blows through between now and 1995. After that, when Tiant is up against the backlog and walking wounded from the 1980s, he will start to draw more support.

40. DavidFoss Posted: November 01, 2006 at 06:46 PM (#2229708)

Chris C. is right. We seem to have a 'next generation wave' of inductions where we reevaluate borderline guys one generation after they are eligible taking caution to induct their shoo-in contempories first. Kiner, Pierce & Minoso are recent examples. Boyer & Fox are similar guys. Its almost Veterans-Committee-like.

41. jimd Posted: November 02, 2006 at 02:03 AM (#2230015)

If anyone is getting screwed, it's the pitchers that may need to be better scrutinized.

i think we're just where we need to be on pitchers

It all depends on how many pitchers one would theoretically expect to be elected to the HOM.

One number that's been tossed out before in these kind of discussions is 30% pitchers. By that standard, a 228 member HOM would have about 68 pitchers and 160 "everyday" players, about 20 at each position. To reach that balance, we would need about 22 more "gloves" (3b/2b/ss/c), 19 more pitchers, and 12 more "bats" (1b/lf/rf/cf).

If one agrees with that theory, then we're still a bit short on pitchers, and infielders too. If instead, one thinks that OF/1b are inherently more deserving for some reason (such as, less wear-and-tear results in longer and more valuable careers), then the current imbalance may be fine, or perhaps even too tilted away from OF/1b.

42. Mike Webber Posted: November 02, 2006 at 02:08 AM (#2230016)

To reach that balance, we would need about 22 more "gloves" (3b/2b/ss/c), 19 more pitchers, and 12 more "bats" (1b/lf/rf/cf).

jimd, what would it be if CF was a glove position, or even a 1/2 glove position?

43. sunnyday2 Posted: November 02, 2006 at 02:18 AM (#2230021)

I've recently taken to dividing players into 4 categories--arms, bats, gloves and hybrids. The hybrids are basically CF plus guys who play 2 positions or more, crossing over the bat/glove divide. Yount is obvious. Pete Rose, Rod Carew...but also all of those 3B who go to 1B, assuming they get enough time at 1B--Schmidt and Brett, no, they are 3Bs AFAIC. I'm not sure 3B isn't a hybrid all by itself, like CF, except there are enough of them that hit like 1B that the 3Bs end up dominating the real hybrids.

The hybrid category is useful when evaluating/rating/ranking players, not so much after the fact for positional balance. It's easy enough to mark down the actual position(s). But in making first-blush evaluations, it is helpful first to make the easier comparisons and the category hybrid helps me to do that.

44. Chris Cobb Posted: November 02, 2006 at 03:04 AM (#2230042)

"Perfect" positional balance in a 228-player Hall, in my view

This view of positional balance is based on the assumption that the 4th and 5th starters on a team are equivalent to the team's 4th outfielder and 4th infielder and should not be counted as front-line starting players. It is further based on the assumption that representation of players at offense-first positions and defense-first positions should be about equal. The DH is such a small presence in baseball history overall that I address its proportion only by rounding up the bat position total and rounding down the glove position total. Operating on these assumptions, a Hall of Merit perfectly balanced by position would contain:

83 Players from Offense-first positions (OF, 1B, DH) (228/11*4)
82 Players from Defense-first positoins (C, 2B, 3B, SS) (228/11*4)
63 pitchers (228/11*3)

"Perfect" positional balance in the 175-player current Hall, in my view

64 Offense-First
63 Defense-First
48 Pitchers

Current totals, by my count

70 Offense-First (15.5 1B, 20 LF, 20 CF, 14.5 RF, 0 DH) ABOVE BY 6
57 Defense-First (13 C, 14.5 2B, 11.5 3B, 18 SS) BELOW BY 6.
48 Pitchers (47 SP, 1 RP) EVEN

We have 53 spots left to fill. I think that 39 of these spots can be safely predicted as being filled as follows:

9.5 Offense-First (Yaz, 1/2 Carew, 1/2 Rose, Jackson, Perez, 1/2 Da. Evans, 1/2 Yount, Winfield, Murray, 1/2 Molitor, Gwynn, Raines)
17.5 Defense-First (Bench, Morgan, 1/2 Carew, Boyer, 1/2 Rose, Simmons, Grich, Schmidt, 1/2 Da. Evans, Carter, Fisk, Brett, 1/2 Yount, Whitaker, O. Smith, Trammell, Sandberg, 1/2 Molitor, Boggs, Ripken)
12 Pitchers (Perry, Jenkins, Palmer, Fingers, Seaver, Carlton, Niekro, Sutton, Blyleven, Ryan, Gossage, Eckersley)

With 14 spots unaccounted for, the predictable totals appear to be

79.5 offense-first
74.5 defense-first
60 pitchers

If we fill the open spots judiciously, we'll have, by my reckoning, a very well-balanced Hall of Merit by positions

45. jimd Posted: November 02, 2006 at 03:53 AM (#2230059)

Chris, I would think relievers might convert a few of the "everyday" spots to pitchers spots.

46. Brent Posted: November 02, 2006 at 04:21 AM (#2230068)

Picking up on Mike's point, I don't think the defensive imbalance is quite so severe if you note that within both the "defense" and "offense" categories the best represented positions are the ones where defense is most important -- SS and CF. (I use the counts that are shown at the top of the plaque page, which shows 21 SS and 21 CF.) Defense was very important to the election of several of the CFers, including Carey and Ashburn. It also helped elect some of the corner fielders, particularly Sheckard.

47. Chris Cobb Posted: November 02, 2006 at 04:25 AM (#2230071)

Maybe.

Since it looks to me like we are likely to induct (by 2007) only 3.5 relievers (Wilhelm, Fingers, Gossage, and 1/2 Eck), they won't change the count much. So we may induct 66 pitchers instead of 63. My sense, I guess, is that we are getting the pitchers pretty close to right, and any number between 60 and 68 by 2007 would seem reasonable. My sense is that gloves are just a bit underrepresented and bats a little over represented, but even there the differences between the two are not so great as to be undoubtedly the result of an overemphasis on hitting rather than random variations in the distribution of great players. It does look to me like we are going to be inducting a high percentage of players at glove positions in the remaining elections.

48. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 02, 2006 at 08:25 AM (#2230115)

Just curious, who voted Sparky Lyle #4? He was pretty overrated.

If you really like relievers, Stu Miller blows him out of the water, as does Lindy McDaniel, John Hiller, Roy Face and Mike Marshall. Ron Perranoski was just as good, so were Don McMahon, Gary Lavelle and Gene Garber.

49. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: November 02, 2006 at 11:49 AM (#2230138)

One problem with offense/first, defense/first distinctions above, around the late 1950s early 1960s with the influx of new parks it appears 3B went from defense first to offense first and CF went the opposite way (because those OFs were generally huge, plus the advent of turf).

It's an oversimplification, but just look at what CF and 3B hit before WWII and after it. So just lumping CF into hitting first and 3B into fielding first doesn't really work for the era we are starting to induct from. Something to keep an eye on with the lists . . .

50. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 02, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2230196)

Chris included Boyer in his post above about who we're likely to elect. So what's that leave for the backlog? 14 slots with these guys dog fighting for them by 2007.

wynn
fox
moore
jones
beckley
roush
browning
duffy
trouppe
redding
keller
walters
cravath
johnson
+++++++++++++++
gvh
cepeda
leach
bresnahan
oms
cash
grimes
welch

OK, but it's not likely that they'll all get in either. Who are the big future backloggers that will push them? Here's a more, not less expansive list:

Bonilla
Caminitti
C Cedeno
J Clark
W Clark
Dawson
Dw Evans
C Finley
Foster
Gooden
Harrah
Henke
Hernandez
Hershiser
John
Key
De Martinez
McGwire
J Morris
Dl Murphy
Nettles
D Parker
Lc Parrish
Quisenberry
Reuschel
J Rice
Saberhagen
Singleton
L Smith
Staub
Stieb
Sutter
Tenace
Viola
Wetteland

Downing
Baines
Baylor

I stuck the DHs last just in case we have some big reassessment of the DH (doubt it, just making sure).

Or to break it out by bat/glove/arm:

BATS
C Cedeno
J Clark
W Clark
Dawson
Dw Evans
Foster
Hernandez
McGwire
Dl Murphy
D Parker
J Rice
Singleton
Staub
Downing
Baines
Baylor

GLOVES
Bonilla
Caminitti
Cey
Harrah
Nettles
Lc Parrish
Randolph
Tenace

ARMS
C Finley
Gooden
Henke
Hershiser
John
Key
De Martinez
J Morris
Quisenberry
Reuschel
Saberhagen
L Smith
Stieb
Sutter
Viola
Wetteland

I'm sure there's lots of guys I've forgotten. But looking at these guys, let's say you split those 14 slots between backlog and frontlog (which may not be likely since the backloggers will have more on-ballot time, but for argument's sake) now we're talking about:

wynn
fox
moore
jones
beckley
roush
browning

and seven of the future guys above. Among them I don't think there's a single one that the whole electorate will find much consensus on. No suprise there, huh?

51. sunnyday2 Posted: November 02, 2006 at 04:31 PM (#2230233)

Which means that the following don't make it...

duffy
trouppe
redding
keller
walters
cravath
johnson
+++++++++++++++
gvh
cepeda
leach
bresnahan
oms
cash
grimes
welch

Dumb question, but I forget which Johnson is that. Walter? HR?

Nobody here that breaks my heart though Redding, Keller and Cepeda are PHoM.

52. DL from MN Posted: November 02, 2006 at 04:35 PM (#2230234)

> assumption that the 4th and 5th starters... should not be counted as front-line
> starting players

The 4 man rotation makes the 4th starter a front-line starting player or at least half of a starting player since there were platoon starters and the 4th guy was sometimes skipped. I would also argue that the additional relief innings and the 5th starter have added 1 additional starter between them to the mix but only from 1990 eligible onwards.

I would balance the HoM as:

79 Players from Offense-first positions (OF, 1B, DH) (228/11.5*4)
79 Players from Defense-first positoins (C, 2B, 3B, SS) (228/11.5*4)
70 pitchers (228/11.5*3.5) + 1

"Perfect" positional balance in the 175-player current Hall, in my view

61 Offense-First (+9)
61 Defense-First (-4)
53 Pitchers (-5)

I think it's alarming there are so many offense-first in the top 10 backlog. Heck, after looking at this there are too many on my ballot.

> predictable totals appear to be

79.5 offense-first (even)
74.5 defense-first (-4)
60 pitchers (-10)

To me this says "be really really sure about the bats you induct". I'm going to adjust some down accordingly.

53. Chris Cobb Posted: November 02, 2006 at 05:11 PM (#2230258)

To me this says "be really really sure about the bats you induct". I'm going to adjust some down accordingly.

I would agree, I have a similar problem. My analysis of appropriate positional balance does not square sufficiently with my own rankings. The question for me then becomes which to trust as a guide to merit.

54. DL from MN Posted: November 02, 2006 at 05:36 PM (#2230278)

I think I'm doing okay for balance except too many OF/1B and not enough 2B/SS. I think the platoon advantage is probably the reason why. Righthanded hitters are not as valuable as lefthanded hitters given the same ability.

55. DL from MN Posted: November 02, 2006 at 06:29 PM (#2230317)

> Dumb question, but I forget which Johnson is that. Walter? HR?

Bob Johnson

My guess is we end up almost even on the defense first (Trouppe, Randolph, Nellie Fox) and short on pitchers with those slots going to bats (McGwire, Will Clark, etc). I guess that's okay. I can see Dick Redding, Stieb and Tiant making it in for pitchers. I can see Jake Beckley, Charley Jones and Pete Browning on the outside looking in like they have been for 100 years already. My guess right now is a plus six bats and a minus six pitchers.

56. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 02, 2006 at 06:38 PM (#2230326)

GLOVES
Bonilla

Ha.

Agreed. I just happen to list him as a 3B by plurality, though he's probably better off as a "bat." Harrah too.

Sunny, won't break my heart either, except Trouppe. That said, there's a couple lean years after 2007 and they are all elect-three years at this juncture. These guys will continue to pile up opportunities for induction.

57. jimd Posted: November 02, 2006 at 07:45 PM (#2230368)

It's an oversimplification, but just look at what CF and 3B hit before WWII and after it. So just lumping CF into hitting first and 3B into fielding first doesn't really work for the era we are starting to induct from.

Post-WWII 3b-men moved into the middle-zone, being on average neither "glove" nor "bat". When you remove pitcher's hitting from the stats, overall OPS+ at 3b is around 102 for the 1950's thru the 1990's, just slightly above average.

The decline of CF's as hitters doesn't really become noticeable until the late 1970's/early 1980's. Before then, post-war CF'ers hit around the historical norms for the position, 106-110 OPS+ (pitchers removed). The bottom fell out during the 1980's and CFers started hitting like 3b-men, just slightly above average, as managers apparently placed a higher emphasis on OF defense, particularly on turf.

Drawing a line between CF and 3B during the 80's and 90's is hard to justify, other than on traditional grounds. But the players from that era have not arrived onto our ballots yet. The question on CF in the future is whether the defensive emphasis will survive the transitions away from turf and into smaller ballparks, or will they cause managers to return to the earlier model?

58. jingoist Posted: November 02, 2006 at 08:03 PM (#2230377)

84%; Pops doesn't garner "Easy Choice" or "No Brainer" status in the HoM?

Who are the 5 voters that thought 9 other candidates were more qualified?
What possible kind of evaluation system must they be employing to arrive at such a conclusion?

Granted we're not talking Wille mays or Honus Wagner here but nobody else in the candidate pool had the combination of peak/prime/career that Wille enjoyed.

I'm obviously thrilled that Starg got in on his first ballot; I would like to request a recalibration of the weighting factors from those voters who didn't have him 1, 2 or 3.

59. Mike Emeigh

Posted: November 02, 2006 at 08:14 PM (#2230386)

I'm obviously thrilled that Starg got in on his first ballot; I would like to request a recalibration of the weighting factors from those voters who didn't have him 1, 2 or 3.

Reading through the ballot thread: Most of the voters who downgraded Stargell did so because of his lack of in-season durability during his prime; he never played in as many as 150 games in a season and only topped 140 four times (with two more seasons right at 140). I don't think that's unfair at all.

-- MWE

60. DL from MN Posted: November 02, 2006 at 08:14 PM (#2230387)

jingo, one voter had 5 _Pirates_ ahead of Stargell.

61. DavidFoss Posted: November 02, 2006 at 09:02 PM (#2230419)

It was worth an encore I suppose. :-)

baseball-reference switches how it tracks OF-ers starting in 1996 so a multi-positional guy like Bonilla gets tricky to count. I can we can cross-reference with retrosheet. He still has a plurality at 3B buts its not a majority compared to LF/RF/1B/DH.

62. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 02, 2006 at 09:47 PM (#2230446)

Who are the 5 voters that thought 9 other candidates were more qualified?
What possible kind of evaluation system must they be employing to arrive at such a conclusion?

I was one of those guys. And MWE has it exactly right.

Stargell and Williams are pretty much the same guy if you look superficially. Lots of statistical similarity, similar total value, etc.... Stargell gets it by being really good in short seasons. Williams gets it by being good in long seasons.

I'm having trouble keeping two windows open today due to some computer memory issues, but one thing I've wondered about Stargell is whether Pops was hurt a lot or whether he didn't play against lefties a lot. If he was platooned that much, we may have overrated him as a group. I'll go take a look at see what comes up.

63. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 02, 2006 at 10:46 PM (#2230491)

OK, I'm back. Nothing fancy here, but I'll share what I dug out of retrosheet.

First off, Stargell's R/L splits:

.293 .376 .560 vs r 5643 AB
.250 .318 .447 vs l 2174 AB

So he loses
43 points of average (15%)
58 points of OBP (or 15 pts of isolated OBP if you'd like) (15%)
113 points of SLG (20%)

I don't see that as highly unusual. Yaz had splits like that too. He goes from Willie Stargell vs R to Carlos Pena vs L.

OK, but the real question is whether or not Stargell may have benefitted by taking days off against lefties. I won't bore you with all the data, but I figured out the Pirates' L v. L ABs net of Stargell for each season and compared them to Willie's ABs vs L by figuring how many ABs vs L the other LHH on his team would have had in his number of ABs. Stargell batted 38% more often against lefties than his lefty teammates. He appears to have been platooned most often his first couple years and then again beginning in 1977. In 1974, he had 4% more AB v. L than his LHH teammates, the only time between 1977 and 1982 that he had more L on L ABs than they.

So the platoon theory doesn't seem to hold water, but I'm glad I backtracked to figure it out. I'm left to conclude that he probably just missed a lot of games. Here's the year-by-year breakdown of how often he batted against lefties versus his lefty teammates:

YEAR  VS LHP VS LHB ON TM 
----------------------------
1962  102%
1963   71%
1964  190%
1965  467%
1966  254%
1967  447%
1968  274%
1969  128%
1970  112%
1971  169%
1972  136%
1973  135%
1974  136%
1975  119%
1976  119%
1977   99%
1978   99%
1979  104%
1980   97%
1981   95%
1982   89%
===========
TOT   138% 

Mike Emeigh can weigh in on this next little thought. From 1965 to 1968 either the Pirates were extraordinarily right-handed as a batting group or they platooned A TON up and down the lineup. In those seasons, the non-Stargell batters' vs. LHP ABs accounted for 5%, 6%, 5%, and 9% of their total ABs. In no other season did they go under ten, just those four years. And those are the seasons where Stargell has the biggest difference between his % of ABS vs LHP and that of his LHH teammates. In fact, starting in Willie's rookie year, the team went from 20% to 15% to 11% before diving to the numbers I listed at the top of this paragraph. Immediately after 1968 (uh, that would be 1969, Eric), the teams' lefties batted well over 20% of the time against southpaws every season until Stargell retired.

Harry Walker took over the team from Danny Murtaugh in 1965. He managed til part-way through 1967, when Murtaugh took over. In 1968, Larry Shepard was managing. In 1969 it was Shepard and Alex Grammas. Murtaugh took back over for a while in 1970. I don't know how close Walker and Shepard were and whether ones ideas would rub off on the other, but it sure seems like there's something going on there. In this time, the Pirates had at least two regulars who hit exclusively lefty in their lineup and usually a switch hitter too, so it's not like they had no lefties. Weird.

64. yest Posted: November 03, 2006 at 07:13 AM (#2230766)

A list of eligible HoFers
HoMers in bold
all HoFers with significant playing careers are included
1936
Ty Cobb, Babe Ruth, Honus Wagner, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson
1937
Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Cy Young , Connie Mack, John McGraw, George Wright
1938
Pete Alexander
1939
George Sisler , Eddie Collins , Willie Keeler , Lou Gehrig, Cap Anson , Charlie Comiskey , Candy Cummings , Buck Ewing , Charles Radbourn , Al Spalding
1942
Rogers Hornsby
1945
Roger Bresnahan , Dan Brouthers , Fred Clarke , Jimmy Collins , Ed Delahanty , Hugh Duffy , Hughie Jennings , King Kelly , Jim O’Rourke , Wilbert Robinson
1946
Jesse Burkett , Frank Chance , Jack Chesbro , Johnny Evers , , Clark Griffith, , Tommy McCarthy , Joe McGinnity , Eddie Plank , Joe Tinker , Rube Waddell , Ed Walsh
1947
Carl Hubbell , Frankie Frisch , Mickey Cochrane , Lefty Grove
1948
Herb Pennock , Pie Traynor
1949
Charlie Gehringer , Mordecai Brown , Kid Nichols
1951
Mel Ott , Jimmie Foxx
1952
Harry Heilmann , Paul Waner
1953
Al Simmons , Dizzy Dean , Chief Bender , Bobby Wallace , Harry Wright
1954
Rabbit Maranville , Bill Dickey , Bill Terry
1955
Joe DiMaggio , Ted Lyons , Dazzy Vance , Gabby Hartnett , Frank Baker , Ray Schalk
1956
Hank Greenberg , Joe Cronin
1957
Sam Crawford
1959
Zack Wheat
1961
Max Carey , Billy Hamilton
1962
Bob Feller , Jackie Robinson , Bill McKechnie , Edd Roush
1963
John Clarkson , Elmer Flick , Sam Rice , Eppa Rixey
1964
Luke Appling , Red Faber , Burleigh Grimes , Miller Huggins , Tim Keefe , Heinie Manush , Monte Ward
1965
Pud Galvin
1966
Ted Williams , Casey Stengel
1967
Red Ruffing , Lloyd Waner
1968
Joe Medwick , Kiki Cuyler , Goose Goslin
1969
Stan Musial, Roy Campanella , Stan Coveleski , , Waite Hoyt,
1970
Lou Boudreau , Earle Combs , Jesse Haines,
1971
Dave Bancroft , Jake Beckley , Chick Hafey , Harry Hooper , Joe Kelley , Rube Marquard , Satchel Paige
1972
Sandy Koufax , Yogi Berra ,Early Wynn, Lefty Gomez , Ross Youngs , Josh Gibson , Buck Leonard
1973
Warren Spahn , George Kelly , Mickey Welch , Monte Irvin , Roberto Clemente
1974
Mickey Mantle , Whitey Ford , Jim Bottomley , Sam Thompson , Cool Papa Bell
1975
Ralph Kiner , Earl Averill , Bucky Harris , Billy Herman , Judy Johnson
1976
Robin Roberts, Bob Lemon , Roger Connor , Freddy Lindstrom , Oscar Charleston
1977
Ernie Banks ,Amos Rusie , Joe Sewell , Al Lopez , Martin Dihigo , Pop Lloyd
1978
Eddie Mathews, Addie Joss
1979
Willie Mays , Hack Wilson
1980
Al Kaline, Duke Snider, Chuck Klein
1981
Bob Gibson, Johnny Mize , Rube Foster
1982
Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Travis Jackson
1983
Brooks Robinson, Juan Marichal, George Kell
1984
Luis Aparicio, Harmon Killebrew, Don Drysdale, Rick Ferrell , Pee Wee Reese
1985
Hoyt Wilhelm, Lou Brock, Enos Slaughter , Arky Vaughan
1986
Willie McCovey, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi
1987
Billy Williams, Catfish Hunter, Ray Dandridge
1988
Willie Stargell
1989
Red Schoendienst
1991
Tony Lazzeri
1992
Hal Newhouser
1994
Leo Durocher , Phil Rizzuto
1995
Leon Day , Vic Willis , Richie Ashburn
1996
Jim Bunning, Bill Foster , Ned Hanlon
1997
Nellie Fox, Willie Wells
1998
George Davis , Larry Doby , Joe Rogan
1999
Orlando Cepeda, Joe Williams
2000
Bid McPhee , Turkey Stearnes
2001
Bill Mazeroski , Hilton Smith
2006
Ray Brown, Willard Brown, Andy Cooper, Biz Mackey, Mule Suttles, Cristobal Torriente, Jud Wilson, Frank Grant, Pete Hill, Jose Mendez Louis Santop, Ben Taylor, Sol White

65. rawagman Posted: November 03, 2006 at 12:32 PM (#2230798)

Doc, I had Stargell around 11th last year.
Why? His career was long, but not extraordinarily so.
His peak was good, but I like to look for ink in my peaks - he had surprisingly little.
I also value defense (even at non-defensive positions) higher than most (it seems like). Stargell is hurt by his poor outfield play. His play at 1B helps him, but I had to admit to myself that among LFs on my personal HOM list, I liked Billy Williams, Minnie Minoso (both elected last year) and Bobby Veach a bit more. Just a small bit, and there is no danger of Stargell not making it in soon.

66. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: November 03, 2006 at 02:13 PM (#2230832)

Wag,

I was pretty much in the same wagon. I preferred Williams but not Minoso and Veach (who are very close though). And on top of that, just about all the eligible LFs I've got ahead of Stargell (except Jones) have been elected. I didn't see his election as being a priority compared to the election of, say, Trouppe, who is not only the best catcher available (IMO) but is also higher up the catcher pecking order.

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