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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Monday, December 04, 2006

1991 Ballot (Elect Three)

Prominent new candidates: Rod Carew, Rusty Staub, Rollie Fingers, Al Oliver, Jerry Koosman, and Steve Rogers.

Top-ten returnees: Ken Boyer, Jimmy Wynn, Nellie Fox, Dobie Moore, Pete Browning, Charlie Keller, and Edd Roush.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:01 PM | 143 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2251184)
I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Rod Carew-2B/1B (n/e): I wouldn't classify him as a "no-brainer," but he's still an easy #1 selection, IMO. Best ML first baseman for 1976 and 1977. Best AL second baseman for 1972, 1973, 1974, and 1975.

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Charlie Keller-LF (3): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

4) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

5) Bucky Walters-P (7): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

6) Mickey Welch-P (8): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

7) Pete Browning-CF/LF (9): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

8) Vic Willis-P (10): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

9) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/DH (11): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his primary position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, and 1969. Best right fielder for 1972 and 1974.

10) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (12): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.
   2. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:10 PM (#2251185)
11) Gavvy Cravath-RF (13): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

12) Alejandro Oms-CF (14): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

13) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (15): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

14) Burleigh Grimes-P (n/e): Back on my ballot after a few "years" off. Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

15) Dobie Moore-SS (n/e): Like Grimes, he's back for another try. Terrific peak; wished he had a little more career. I give him credit for his pre-NeL seasons. Probably would have been the best shortstop in the majors in 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1924.

Boyer, Fox, and Roush all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

Rollie Fingers is the closest of the non-Carew newbies to make my ballot, but not close enough.
   3. Rusty Priske Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:40 PM (#2251196)
PHoM: Carew, Staub, Oliver

1. Rod Carew (new)

A clear #1, but since I am a strong career voter...

2. Rusty Staub (new)

...Staub is closer to 1 than he is to 3. Plus, he has the best first name in the history of, well, history.

3. Jake Beckley (3,6,2)
4. George Van Haltren (5,9,4)

Remember them? They should have both been elected years ago, imo.

5. Tommy Leach (6,11,10)

I waver on Leach, but he is currently in my good books.

6. Nellie Fox (7,8,6)

7. Dobie Moore (8,12,11)

See Leach, Tommy.

8. Lou Brock (11,13,9)

Unfairly maligned.

9. Jimmy Wynn (9,10,5)

10. Edd Roush (4,7,8)

Kind of the opposite to Leach.

11. Quincy Trouppe (12,15,12)

12. Mickey Welch (10,4,7)

See Roush, Edd

13. Orlando Cepeda (15,x,x)

14. Norm Cash (13,x,14)

15. Hugh Duffy (x,14,13)

16-20. R.Smith, Oliver, Bonds, Boyer, Singleton
21-25. Browning, Johnson, Ryan, Willis, Redding
26-30. Rice, Grimes, Streeter, Doyle, McCormick
   4. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:47 PM (#2251202)
1991 Ballot

Carew, Fingers and Bobby Doerr go PHoM

1. Rod Carew (new, PHoM 1991)—overrated, to be sure, but #1 against this backlog; appropriate that he should be #1 in the year of the Twins' second world championship

2. Dobie Moore (3-3-1, PHoM 1942)—still a very mighty peak

3. Rollie Fingers (new, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat, no number that says Fingers is #3 among this backlog, though I do see him as the #3 reliever ever as of 1991 (not just among those eligible as of 1991, but among all who are in our knowledge base as of 1991). With that in mind, I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (through 1991), who happens to be Rollie Fingers, in the HoM rather than the #15-20-25 at another position; or if that’s not good enough, there’s always the ‘stache

4. Nellie Fox (9-10-7, PHoM 1971)—one of the most valuable <100 OPS+ players ever; yes, clearly better than Bancroft, Rizzuto et al

5. Larry Doyle (6-8-5, PHoM 1975)—same OPS+ as Edd Roush

6. Addie Joss (8-9-6, PHoM 1967)—best ERA+ available (with "significant" innings); he's another lost cause but I can’t kick the habit

7. Pete Browning (7-7-4, PHoM 1961)--nothing to say that hasn't been said 100 times

8. Charlie Keller (11-12-9, PHoM 1985)—“So, are you a peak voter or not?” “Yes, I am” “So, why the hell aren’t you supporting Charlie Keller?” “Well, I am, now, finally”

9. Orlando Cepeda (12-14-11, PHoM 1987)—pretty interchangeable with F. Howard and Cravath

10. Edd Roush (5-6-3, PHoM 1976)—no apologies for peak of 38*-33-30 (*short WWI season adjusted to 154)

11. Reggie Smith (14-13-10, PHoM 1988)—underrated

12. Tommy Bond (20-24-29, PHoM 1929)—great peak, had to bring him back

13. Ed Williamson (17-19-18, PHoM 1924)—the more I look at the other candidates, the more flaws I see; the more I look at Ed, the more complete of a resume he has

(13a. Bobby Doerr [15a-16a-13a, PHoM 1991])

14. Gavvy Cravath (15-16-13)—pretty interchangeable with Cepeda and F. Howard, which threesome is clearly if slightly better than Cash, Keeler and Klein among the “hitter” candidates

15. Elston Howard (22-23-17)—moves up due to catcher shortage/bonus, plus the fact that his opportunities were incredibly constrained by integration era “stuff,” Yogi Berra, Casey Stengel etc., a Jackie Robinson type of talent

Drops Out

16. Charley Jones (10-11-8, PHoM 1921)
17. Phil Rizzuto (13-15-12)


18. Frank Howard (16-17-14)
19. Bucky Walters (25-26-20)
20. Norm Cash (30-30-30)
(20a. Joe Sewell [19a-19a-16a]—no Bobby Doerr)

21. Don Newcombe (18-20-19)
(21a. Willie Keeler [22a-27a-27a]—similar to Carew, actually, but clearly a tier or two below)
22. Ken Boyer (29-29-29)
23. Dizzy Dean (26-27-21)
24. Chuck Klein (40-35-24)
25. Dick Redding (21-22-16, PHoM 1971)
26. Thurman Munson (38-55-61)
27. Dick Lundy (19-21-42)
28. Eddie Cicotte (24-18-15)
29. Dave Bancroft (28-42-53)
30. Vern Stephens (33-38-31)
   5. karlmagnus Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:49 PM (#2251205)
Carew’s better than Rose, by a significant margin; I’m torn between him and Beckley, but his 50% 2B career, stolen bases and 6 point OPS+_ advantage put him just ahead. Staub not quite as good as Beckley, no fielder and somewhat shorter career in terms of hits (20% shorter if you adjust Beckley for season length. Hence close to bottom of ballot. Oliver clearly a tiny slice less than Staub, hence around bottom of consideration set. Koosman’s Kaat with a shorter career. Fingers adjusts to 114ERA+ and 2550IP – in consideration set but low. Hebner quite good, but short career as fulltimer.

1. (N/A) Rod Carew Very close between Carew and Beckley (who, when adjusted, had a longer career) but I think Carew was a smidgin better, since Beckley’s 1B is about equivalent to Carew’s 1B/2B split. OPS+ 131. TB+BB/PA .475, TB+BB/Outs .732, 3053 hits.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 70 “years” ago.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

7. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

9. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

10. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.
   6. karlmagnus Posted: December 04, 2006 at 01:50 PM (#2251206)
11. (N/A-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-13-14-11-12-14-13) Frank Howard Very slightly better than Kiner – significantly longer career. Underrated by history. OPS+ 142 for 1774 hits. TB+BB/PA .546, TB+BB/Outs .805 in a pitchers’ park and era.

12. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13-15-14) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back on again as Stretch was elected.

13. (N/A-14-N/A-15) Luis Tiant 229-172. 3486 IP at 114. ERA+ a little low, but W/L good. He’s not top tier, but just a little better than Pierce. Big psychic plus for Red Sox affiliation.

14. (N/A-13-12-13-13-12-14-15-12-13-11-11-N/A-11-9-12-12-N/A-15-15-N/A) George van Haltren. Had slipped too far at #44; we need more 90s stars. Back off ballot, will return.

15. Rusty Staub. 2716 hits at OPS+124. TB+BB/PA .484, TB+BB/Outs .724. Not quite as good as Beckley, for not quite as long.


16. (N/A-7-13-11-13-14-14-14-N/A-15-15-15-N/A-14-15-15-15-N/A-
14-N/A-15-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144. (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

17. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12-15-15-15-15-N/A) Carl Mays Had slipped down too far – back up towards ballot in Pierce’s slot.

18. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

19. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

20. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

21. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

22. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-
3-2-2-3-2-2-4-2-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-4-3-3-3-4-2-2-2-2-N/A) Mickey Welch. Downgraded on consideration of unearned runs. UER were 43.37% of total runs allowed for Mickey, compared to about 40% with all his HOM contemporaries except Galvin (who started earlier, anyway.) Hence his ERA+, his weakness anyway, overstates his value; in spite of 307-210 he was primarily an innings-eater. 4802IP.
23. Ben Taylor.

24. Jim Kaat 4530IP@107. 283-237 Very good for a very long time; will make ballot in weak year. OPS+37, good for his era.

25. Orlando Cepeda
26. Norm Cash
27. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-
N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy. Up a little after looking at Ashburn
28. (N/A-12-12-14-N/A) Tony Lazzeri
29. (N/A-14-N/A-15-N/A) Sam Rice
30. Lou Brock
31. Mickey Vernon
32. Thurmon Munson
33. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis
34. Sal Maglie.
35. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes.
36. (N/A) Heinie Manush
37. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan
38. Bob Elliott
39. Ken Boyer. Just a hair short of Elliott, so slots here.
40. (N/A) Dick Lundy
41. (N/A-9-12-11-14-13-14-12-11-12-13-11-11-9-9-13-14-12-14-14-N/A) Levi Meyerle.
42. (12-15-N/A-11-10-12-10-10-9-8-11-12-10-10-8-8-14-15-13-15-15-N/A) Harry Wright.
43. (N/A-10-9-8-7-6-7-8-5-12-10-10-N/A-10-8-11-11-N/A) Jimmy Ryan
44. Gene Tenace
45. Kiki Cuyler
46. Deacon McGuire
47. Jerry Koosman. 3839IP at 110 ERA+, 222-209. Nearly good enough for elite status, but not quite; similar but lower than Kaat or Grimes
48. Boog Powell
49. Ken Singleton. Just below Boog, I think. 2029 hits at 132. TB+BB/PA .514, TB+BB/Outs .795.
50. Sal Bando.
51. Jim Fregosi.
52. Jack Quinn
53. Tony Mullane
54. Rollie Fingers. Add 1/3 of his saves and he becomes 228-118 or thereabouts, but on my adjustment (add 50% and subtract 5 ERA+ points) he goes to 2550/114, which isn’t enough.
55. Pie Traynor
56. Jim McCormick
57. Dick Redding. My punt is 3200 innings at 114 ERA+ for a record of 207-159, i.e. same quality as Chris but a little shorter. About here looks right – a little below Grimes (longer career) and Maglie (better quality.)
58. Joe Judge
59. Edd Roush Same quality as Beckley but less valuable defensive position and 20% shorter career. Yes, he’s good, but Beckley’s a lot better.
60. Spotswood Poles.
61. Larry Doyle
62. Curt Simmons
63. Roger Bresnahan.
64. Waite Hoyt.
65. Harry Hooper.
66. Vada Pinson
67. Gil Hodges
68. Jules Thomas.
69. Rico Carty.
70. Wilbur Cooper
71. Bruce Petway.
72. Jack Clements
73. Bill Monroe
74. Herb Pennock
75. Chief Bender
76. Ed Konetchy
77. Al Oliver 2743 hits at 121 TB+BB/PA .472 TB+BB/Outs .686. Staub minus.
78. Jesse Tannehill
79. Bobby Veach
80. Lave Cross
81. Tommy Leach.
82. Tom York

FOUR Top 10 off my consideration set:

Fox is Rabbit Maranville again, off my ballot with OPS+ well under 100 – I think the old-timers overrated the importance of SS fielding, and underrated the possibility of getting a SS who could hit.

Moore hugely overrated; off my consideration set.

Wynn not nearly good enough a hitter; think we’re giving an excessive CF premium compared to other OF positions.

Keller’s a hitting Dizzy Dean; all peak but very short career (missed 1 ½ years for war, but even with them would be under 1400 hits)
   7. yest Posted: December 04, 2006 at 02:29 PM (#2251230)
1990 ballot
Carew , Fingers , and Oliver make my PHOM this year

1. Rod Carew unanimous what if he didn‘t get slid into (makes my pHoM this year)
2. Pie Traynor most 3B putouts 7 times (made my personal HoM in 1942)
3. Nellie Fox led his league in putouts a record 10 years in a row (made my personal HoM in 1971)
4. Chuck Klein 4 hr titles 1 triple crown (made my personal HoM in 1951)
5. Tony Oliva most hits 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1983)
6. Mickey Welch please see his thread (made my personal HoM all the way back in 1898)
7. Sam Rice imagine if he would have started earlier (made my personal HoM in 1940)
8. Pete Browning 13th in career batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1906)
9. Jake Beckley 30th in hits (made my personal HoM in 1915)
10. Hack Wilson 4 hr titles RBI season record (made my personal HoM in 1940)
11. Hugh Duffy had 100 runs or RBIs every full year he played (made my personal HoM in 1908)
12. Addie Joss 2nd in era (made my personal HoM in 1918)
13. George Kell very good hitter and fielder at important and under elected position (made my personal HoM in 1963)
14. Al Oliver 1 batting title (makes my pHoM this year)
15. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (makes my pHoM this year)
16. Harvey Kuenn led AL shortstops in putouts twice assists once (made my personal HoM in 1972)
17. Heinie Manush 330 batting avg. (made my personal HoM in 1957)
18. Edd Roush 323 batting avg (made my personal HoM in 1937)
19. Hilton Smith see his thread (made my personal HoM in 1964)
20. Ray Schalk the best catcher ever (made my personal HoM in 1938)
21. George Van Haltren 31st in runs (made my personal HoM in 1925)
22. Jimmy Ryan 30th in runs (made my personal HoM in 1926)
23. Luis Aparicio being a better offensive player then Rabbit puts him here (made my personal HoM in 1979)
24. Jake Daubert 29th in triples (made my personal HoM in 1930)
25. Bobby Veach most doubles twice (made my personal HoM in 1931)
26. Bill Mazeroski probably saved on average around 90 runs a year (made my personal HoM in 1984)
27. Roy Thomas most times on base 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1984)
28. Gavvy Cravath most active HRs 1918, 1919 and 1920 (made my personal HoM in 1928)
29. Lou Brock like the steals more then most (made my personal HoM in 1984)
30. Kiki Cuyler 2299 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
31. Lloyd Waner had the most OF putouts 4 times, finished 2nd once and finished 3rd twice (made my personal HoM in 1968)
32. Ginger Beaumont 1902 batting title (made my personal HoM in 1932)
33. John McGraw 3rd in on base percentage (made my personal HoM in 1930)
34. Jim Bottomley 2313 hits (made my personal HoM in 1968)
35. Levi Meyerle best rate season ever (made my personal HoM in 1975)
36. Eddie Yost most walks 6 times most times on base 3 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
37. Rabbit Maranville best shortstop before Ozzie moves down do to reading accounts on how his drinking hurt his team more then the numbers show(made my personal HoM in 1939)
38. George J. Burns most walks 5 times (made my personal HoM in 1932)
39. Orlando Cepada 297 batting avg 379 HRs (made my personal HoM in 1987)
40. Stuffy McInnis led in fielding% 6 times (made my personal HoM in 1987)
41. Deacon Phillippe best walks/9 IP in the 20th centaury (made my personal HoM in 1988)

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, Trouppe and Dobie Moore barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Ken Boyer a great candidate for the HoVG
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
Charle Keller I’m not giving him WWII or minor league credit of MVP seasons like others.
   8. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2006 at 02:45 PM (#2251242)
Forgot to mention Jim Wynn is #36, Trouppe #52, Beckley #55.
   9. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2006 at 03:55 PM (#2251281)
PPS. Also forgot to mention the other newbies: Staub started out at about #16 and ended up #66, right between Tony Mullane and Burleigh Grimes or between (Joe Kelley) and Mike Tiernan among "hitters". The #16 represented more of a career perspective but, hey, I remembered in the nick of time that I'm a peak voter... ;-) Al Oliver is #78 between Gene Tenace and (Pete Hill) or between Vada Pinson and Bobby Veach among ML OF.

"Hitters" between 60-80

60. George Van Haltren (58-62-75)
(61a. Joe Kelley [62a-68a-68a])
66. Rusty Staub (new)
68. Mike Tiernan (64-64-56)
69. George Burns (85-94-86)
70. Ben Taylor (62-67-67)
71. Ken Singleton (56-new)
72. Kiki Cuyler (91-82-93)
75. Frank Chance (75-73-63)
76. Vada Pinson (80-77-80)
78. Al Oliver (new)
(78a. Pete Hill [87a-93a-85a])
79. Bobby Veach (92-87-91)
   10. DL from MN Posted: December 04, 2006 at 04:13 PM (#2251291)
1991 ballot

1) Rod Carew - I saw a lot of comments on Joe Morgan as an announcer. I absolutely love listening to Sir Rodney do commentary. He has keen insight into the game. One thing that is interesing about playing at that high level that I think is misunderstood is the psychology of it all. Carew and Morgan were great at preparing to succeed.
2) Bob Johnson - I still think the wrong outfielders were elected from that era. Terrific player year after year. I don't give him minor league credit but I don't dock his war numbers either.
3) Luis Tiant - Best pitcher available, another Bunning/Pierce type
4) Norm Cash - Platoon issues are keeping me from placing him in an elect-me spot but he had a very good bat. On the surface he looks like Gil Hodges but Cash had a more difficult era to produce the same numbers.
5) Quincy Trouppe - I'm not being conservative with his defensive numbers any more and am giving him more credit for being a decent C and 3B. He didn't play as much 1B as Torre and Simmons so he was probably a better defender than Torre and Simmons. All he needs is decent defense to go with that very good bat.
6) Jake Beckley - This vote will help push him ahead to leading vote getter ever. His playing career mirrors his HoM vote performance - a lot of years in the top 10-20 but never in the top 3.
7) Rusty Staub - A little more bat than Beckley but a lot less glove
8) Reggie Smith - I give him Japan credit, decent glove
9) Tommy Bridges - I like his pitching much better than Ferrell or Lemon
10) Jim Wynn - Probably the best CF of the immediate post-Mays era
11) Ken Boyer - Very good glove, very good bat. Well rounded player. One more season as good as his top 7 would separate him from the Elliott and Bando pack
12) Virgil Trucks - deserves war credit, I keep having to doublecheck my credit though because I'm way out of step with the consensus that never even considers him
13) Orlando Cepeda - Big bat, small glove
14) Edd Roush - Not a lot of separation between him and Wynn, league strength may be the difference
15) Bus Clarkson - translations have him as a .285/.370/.439 hitter over 8000 plate appearances with a glove good enough to play all over the infield. The bat compares to Barry Larkin. Doesn't seem to be a traditional utility player like Figgins who fills a different slot day to day but more of a Polanco type who would start whereever the team had the greatest need. Played for enough teams that he ended up filling a lot of needs. I score him as 370 FRAR, 45 FRAA for his career.

16-20) Dutch Leonard, Bob Elliott, Jack Quinn, Charlie Keller, Luke Easter
21-25) Dick Redding, Vic Willis, Dave Bancroft, Urban Shocker, Jerry Koosman

Bit of a surprise to me having Koosman show up that high

26-30) Frank Howard, Bobby Bonds, Gavy Cravath, Hilton Smith, Alejandro Oms
31-35) Johnny Evers, Dizzy Trout, Ben Taylor, Ken Singleton, Boog Powell

41) Dobie Moore - ranked like if Ernie Banks' career had been cut short

47) Rollie Fingers - may move up when I give him postseason credit but he's not coming close to my ballot. Like the rest of the backlog there are question marks.

52) Pete Browning
55) Charley Jones
92) Al Oliver
100) Nellie Fox - yest and I both agree that Pie Traynor has similar merit as Nellie Fox but we don't agree on their merit vs everyone else.

Steve Rogers - just out of top 100
   11. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:22 PM (#2251362)

What isyour reasoning for not docking Johnson's performance during the war years. He played in a league that was at laset 10% worse than the surrounding years and his performance spiked. Seem fishy to you?
   12. DL from MN Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2251370)
I'm not docking the war years precisely because I'm not giving minor league credit. I think they cancel each other out.
   13. Qufini Posted: December 04, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2251371)
1. Rod Carew, 1B/2B: I didn't even bother giving Carew a positional bonus for playing half the time at second base. He was first overall without it. That's how big the gap is between Carew and everybody else on the ballot.
2. Dick Redding, P: I haven't given up on the Cannonball making a run to the top.
3. Nellie Fox, 2B
4. Quincy Trouppe, C
: Fox and Trouppe are the top players at their respective positions. I've flipped them back and forth a couple of times, usually related to which player I've made the most recent case for.
5. Lou Brock, LF: I might be one of Brock's best friends by now but after a conservative initial placement, he's been slowly working his way up towards the top of my ballot.
6. Alejandro Oms, CF: A ten-year career that rivals Kiner, plus another ten years of consistent play unfortunately detailed by inconsistent records based on a lack of opportunity.
7. Burleigh Grimes, P: The second-best career stats for pitchers and he's missing the peak that Mickey Welch lacks.
8. Don Newcombe, P: Korean War credit pushes Newcombe this high up the ballot.
9. Dobie Moore, SS: I made the claim recently that Moore was the best shortstop available, even though I had Aparicio higher on my ballot. After looking at the two of them again, I've adjusted my ballot accordingly with Moore moving up a couple of slots and Aparicio sliding down.
10. Hugh Duffy, CF: There's a lot more to Duffy than his Triple Crown year, but the Triple Crown year doesn't hurt.
11. Ken Boyer, 3B: I'm looking forward to his election.
12. Luis Aparicio, SS
13. Rollie Fingers, RP: If we were voting in/out, I'd have Fingers in. Ranking him against position players is a little more difficult so I'm conservatively placing him here.
14. Orlando Cepeda, 1B: A better peak than career-candidates like Beckley. A better career than peak-candidates like Chance.
15. Jake Beckley, 1B: He sneaks back onto my ballot, though he'll most likely be bumped off again with the strong class of '92.

Necessary Disclosures:
Jimmy Wynn: Not good enough for not long enough.
Pete Browning and Edd Roush: I have both of them third and fourth for centerfielders but that leaves them off-ballot behind Oms and Duffy.
Charlie Keller: Not enough war credit to make up for the lack of career value.
New Eligibles:
Rusty Staub: I was asked about him in the discussion thread. I like him better than I thought I would, but he still trails Brock, Beckley and Rice as a career candidate.
   14. jhwinfrey Posted: December 04, 2006 at 06:11 PM (#2251405)
Carew, Fingers, and Alejandro Oms are my (PHoM) inductees this year.

1991 Ballot

1. Rod Carew
: Best candidate by far. My system ranks him 86.4/100. Grimes is at 72/100. (1991)
2. Burleigh Grimes: Best pitching candidate by far. Fits my definition of merit well. (1940)
3. Orlando Cepeda: Baby Bull's better peak and league dominance give him the edge over Eagle Eye. (1985)
4. Jake Beckley: I'll keep voting for him, but my fingers are crossed that I won't have to next year. (1927)
5. Charley Jones: Kind of the opposite of Beckley, but they wind up right next to each other. (1958)
6. Dick Redding: Best negro league candidate. (1961)
7. Edd Roush: Like Cepeda, a great hitter that I don't understand the lack of support for. (1962)
8. Quincy Trouppe: Best unelected catcher by far. (1964)
9. Pete Browning: Best peak candidate, except maybe the guy with the handlebar moustache. (1967)
10. Alejandro Oms: Best candidate I would never had heard of if I hadn't been a part of this project. (1991)
11. Nellie Fox: Second-best fielder on the ballot. Carew is first. (1971)
12. Rollie Fingers: A good combination of longevity and peak value. I think a positional bonus for relievers is appropriate, and this is where he lands as a result. (1991)
13. Reggie Smith: A slightly higher peak than Roush, but a shorter career and less dominant in his league. (1988)
14. Jim Kaat
15. Bucky Walters: Between these two, Kaat gets the nod because of his longer career. By the numbers, Walters was the better fielder, though. (1976)

22. Ken Boyer: He's no Heinie Groh, but I still have about ten guys ahead of him on my PHoM queue. Groh has about a hundred.

25. Jimmy Wynn: I prefer Tony Oliva.
   15. DL from MN Posted: December 04, 2006 at 06:25 PM (#2251418)
> I'll keep voting for him, but my fingers are crossed that I won't have to next year.

Hopefully you uncross your fingers from time to time, otherwise that might get painful.
   16. ronw Posted: December 04, 2006 at 06:33 PM (#2251424)
1991 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

1. Rod Carew 22.0 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS. According to the Beastie Boys, he got mad hits.

2. Dick Redding If only we could have his teen’s peak clearly defined.

3. Pete Browning 26.1 bWS/700 PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. There were two better hitters through the 1880’s, Brouthers and Connor. There were many better fielders.

4. Dobie Moore 22.1 bWS/700 PA. Such a high peak that less PT may not really be an issue. Similar to Jennings for me.

5. Tommy Leach 18.0 bWS/700 PA, 2 MVP, 11 AS. A good player from an underrepresented period.

6. Roger Bresnahan 22.7 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 10 AS. Yes, the MVP was as a CF, but still a very valuable player for his time.

7. Hugh Duffy 20.9 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 10 AS. Dominant during the early 1890’s, but that might be Win Shares talking.

8. George Van Haltren 20.0 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 13 AS. Has gotten an elect-me vote on my ballot before.

9. Bill Monroe The ultimate overlooked candidate.

10. Luis Tiant – 21.5 pWS/300IP, 3 MVP, 9 AS. I think he may be better than electee Billy Pierce.

11. Vic Willis 22.0 pWS/300IP, 3 CY, 8 AS. I think we are underrating his early career peak.

12. Lou Brock - 18.7 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 11 AS. 30+ WS seasons in 1967, 1968, and 1971, plus a solid long career sounds pretty good to me.

13. Charlie Keller. 29.5 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 6 AS. With war credit, he probably should be at least tied with Kiner.

14. Jimmy Wynn. 22.8 bWS/700PA, 5 MVP, 8 AS. Seems to be close to being a Hugh Duffy clone with respect to Win Shares.

15. Ben Taylor. I’m having trouble between Ben and Jake.

16. Jake Beckley. 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 12 AS. Has enough career.

17. Larry Doyle. 22.5 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 11 AS. I’ve voted him high before.

18. Bob Elliott. 20.3 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 8 AS. Also has appeared on my ballot before.

19. Quincy Trouppe. I’m have come around on him.

20. Bobby Bonds. 22.4 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 10 AS. Definitely in the consideration set.

21. Sal Bando. 19.4 bWS/700PA, 3 MVP, 10 AS. Better than I expected.


Missing top 10

Ken Boyer – 17.9 bWS/700 PA, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Not quite enough from a hitting position for me. I like Bob Elliott and Sal Bando better.

Nellie Fox – 13.1 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 10 AS. Wouldn’t be a horrible selection, but I like a little more hitting, and prefer Doyle/Childs to Nellie.

Edd Roush – 21.9 bWS/700PA, 2 MVP, 9 AS. Like Charley Jones, maybe needs holdout credit. I haven’t been giving it to him.

New Notables

Rusty Staub – 20.1 bWS/700PA, 1 MVP, 9 AS. Not quite Jake Beckley, but closer than some would have you believe.

Rollie Fingers – 33.0 pWS/300IP, 1 MVP, 4 AS. I don’t see the HOM material.

Al Oliver – 18.6 bWS/700PA, 0 MVP, 10 AS.

Jerry Koosman – 18.8 pWS/300IP, 1 MVP, 8 AS. Surprisingly effective for a decent period, could be borderline HOM material.

Steve Rogers – 19.3 pWS/300IP, 1 MVP, 7 AS. Needed a higher peak, but very effective.
   17. DL from MN Posted: December 04, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#2251456)
> 1. Rod Carew 22.0 bWS/700PA, 4 MVP, 9 AS. According to the Beastie Boys, he got mad hits.

Would you vote for Sadaharu Oh if you had the chance?
   18. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:05 PM (#2251464)
always loved that line about the mad hits.
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:10 PM (#2251470)
> I'll keep voting for him, but my fingers are crossed that I won't have to next year.

Hopefully you uncross your fingers from time to time, otherwise that might get painful

   20. Mark Donelson Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:40 PM (#2251493)
I’m an extreme peak voter; career numbers matter very little to me, except as a tiebreaker. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

This “year” was mainly about the agony of the Fingers for me. No other major rejiggerings elsewhere.

pHOM: Carew, Tiant, Faber

1991 ballot:

1. Rod Carew (pHOM 1991). It’d be a lot easier to be sure without the midcareer switch to 1B, but he still edges out the backlog for the top slot. As Marc/Sunnyday pointed out, he pretty much matches Moore’s offensive peak and adds some bulk elsewhere, and his defensive shortcomings don’t give all of that advantage back. I'm finding myself oddly bothered by the idea of his being unanimous the year after Morgan wasn't, though. :)

2. Dobie Moore (pHOM 1932). Fantastic peak, even if it’s not quite what we thought before the new MLEs. Like all the early NeLers, he’s hard to evaluate, but I’m confident this guy was the real deal.

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak (which is why he’s not even higher), but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

4. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

5. Eddie Cicotte (pHOM 1972). Clear enough dominance for long enough, in my book. (I am fully counting his 1919 and 1920 stats.)

6. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

7. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix—his PRAA peak is still excellent.

8. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

9. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

10. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

11. Quincy Trouppe (pHOM 1967). Surpassed recently by Freehan and Howard, but still quite worthy.

12. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for, and enough of it to edge guys like Chance (to address that issue).

13. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). His peak may have been short, but it was also pretty stellar.

14. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA haze, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction.

15. Nellie Fox (pHOM 1986). After making my pHOM a few “years” back, he finally makes my ballot, I believe for the first time. Not the greatest peak, perhaps, but at this position he has enough to qualify.
   21. Mark Donelson Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:43 PM (#2251497)
16-20: Roush (1988), Gomez (1987), Bresnahan (1973), J. Wynn (1987), Walters (1968)
21-25: [Faber (1991)], F. Howard, Duffy (1930), McGraw, [B. Williams], H. Smith, Oms
26-30: Redding (1975), Pesky, Fingers, Singleton, Bando
31-35: Trout, Boyer, Joss, [E. Wynn], Berger, [Reese], H. Wilson
36-40: [Lyons], Leach, McCormick, Doyle, [Minoso], Chance, Elliott
41-45: Cepeda, Munson, Burns, Marshall, J. Ryan
46-50: Rizzuto, Bobby Bonds, Easter, Veach, Colavito

Required Explanations and Newbies:

•Boyer. Not my favorite of the eligible 3Bs—I prefer the peak-heavier Rosen, Williamson, and McGraw. He’s midpack, right on the borderline as far as whether he’ll end up making my pHOM or not. At #31.

•Wynn. Again, not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. He’s in my pHOM now, and, at #19, not too far off ballot.

•Beckley. I repeat: I’m an extreme peak voter. He’s not on my radar.

•Roush. Another guy whose peak doesn’t quite measure up to those of those on my ballot, but my opinion of him has risen lately; he’s just barely off-ballot now, at #16.

•Staub. Like Gaylord Perry, he’s a guy I only saw at the very end of his career, so I was surprised to find out how good he was in his prime. Only Staub wasn’t quite Perry in his prime; he reminds me a lot of Colavito overall, but not quite as good as him either, peakwise. He’s just outside my top 50.

•Fingers. My usual system doesn’t love him—he doesn’t really have the peak I’m looking for in PRAA, so he starts off somewhere between Marshall and Hiller for me. My bullshirt dump takes into account the Commish’s charts, though, as well as the postseason heroics, and that’s enough to give him a significant boost. Still, I remain mostly with Dr. Chaleeko on this one: I don’t think he was quite as dominant as I would like in the end. He debuts at #28, and may eventually make my pHOM.

•Oliver. Just not nearly enough peak for me.

•Koosman. Some nice years, but not a real candidate.
   22. sunnyday2 Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:47 PM (#2251501)
>I'm finding myself oddly bothered by the idea of his being unanimous the year after Morgan wasn't, though. :)

Well, yes, that won't be one of our greater achievements.
   23. Adam Schafer Posted: December 04, 2006 at 07:51 PM (#2251505)
1. Rod Carew - didn't even need a positional boost for his 2b time.

2. Rollie Fingers - I'm interested to see how others vote for relievers. I will probably be

a better friend to the relievers than most.

3. Charley Jones - I give him credit for time blacklisted. I would be extremely upset if I

wasn't getting paid when I should. When he was playing, he dominated his leagues.

4. Gavy Cravath - An absolute power house. Just like Klein would do later, he took

advantage of a hitters park. I do not dock him for this. More power to him for knowing the

situation and being able to take advantage of it.

5. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930

6. Nellie Fox - positional boost and career credit get him placed here.

7. Orlando Cepeda - Never THE best, but consistantly very good.

8. Cecil Travis - I don't find it too hard, or too much of a stretch to believe he would've

had some very impressive career numbers if not for WWII

9. Bucky Walters - not as much career value as I typically like, but his combination of peak

mixed with the career value that he does hold places him here.

10. Tony Oliva - See Cepeda

11. Don Newcombe - with credit for years lost, he really has a solid case

12. Vern Stephens - a SS who hit for power and average. A perennial MVP threat.

13. Bobby Veach -

14. Chuck Klein - see Cravath

15. Jack Quinn - lots of career value, I give him PCL credit, gets (minor) relief credit

Ernie Lombardi
Lefty Gomez
Johnny Pesky
Quincey Trouppe
Roger Bresnahan
Charlie Keller
Rocky Colavito
Dolf Luque
Hack Wilson
Hugh Duffy
Thurman Munson
Jake Beckley
Levi Meyerle
Burleigh Grimes
Carl Mays
Larry Doyle
Dobie Moore
Dizzy Dean
Frank Howard
Pete Browning
Bob Elliot
Tommy Bridges
Wally Schang
David Orr
Johnny Sain
Bob Johnson
Addie Joss
Fred Dunlap
Duke Farrell
Luis Aparicio
Lave Cross
John McGraw
Harvey Kuenn
Stu Miller
Walker Cooper
Lon Warneke
Norm Cash
Catfish Hunter
Heinie Manush
Ken Boyer
Al Rosen
Mike Marshall
Vic Willis
Gene Tenace
Herman Long
Deacon McGuire
Urban Shocker
Ed Williamson
Al Oliver
Sam Rice
Mike Tiernan
Ginger Beaumont
Lou Brock
Jim McCormick
Tommy Bond
Dom DiMaggio
George Kell
Elston Howard
Mickey Welch
Pie Traynor
Tommy Henrich
Mickey Vernon
Ed Konetchy
Henry Larkin
Reggie Smith
Kiki Cuyler
Ed Yost
Rusty Staub
Gus Weyhing
Gil Hodges
Jimmy Ryan
Bobby Murcer
Sparky Lyle
Eddie Cicotte
Tommy Leach
Stuffy McInnis
Lefty O'Doul
Charley Root
Jack Daubert
Buddy Lewis
Dave Bancroft
Lloyd Waner
Jack Chesbro
Herb Pennock
Vada Pinson
Wilbur Cooper
Tony Lazzeri
Ken Singleton
Luis Tiant
Tony Mullane
Roy Thomas
Jim Kaat
Phil Rizzuto
Denny McClain
Claude Passeau
Wilbur Wood
Rabbit Maranville
Dizzy Trout
Joe Wood
Sal Bando
George Van Haltren
Mel Harder
Bobby Bonds
Boog Powell
Tom York
Mike Cuellar
Jimmy Wynn
Dick Bartell
Deacon Phillippe
Freddie Fitzsimmons
Lee May
Wally Berger
Rube Marquard
Virgil Trucks
Milt Pappas
Mickey Lolich
Jerry Koosman
Dave McNally
Amos Otis
Jesse Tannehill
Johnny Vander Meer
Sad Sam Jones
Jack Powell
Bert Campaneris
Nap Rucker
Baby Doll Jacobson
Hal Schumacher
Earl Whitehill
Tug McGraw
Joe Judge
John Hiller
   24. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 04, 2006 at 08:05 PM (#2251516)

What about Keller as a top 10 returnee? Did I miss him on your ballot?

Oh and if you guys think I am not looking at each ballot for a reason why Keller is not on it now that he is top 10, you are sorely mistaken...;-)
   25. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2251521)
>I'm finding myself oddly bothered by the idea of his being unanimous the year after Morgan wasn't, though. :)

Especially since Morgan was clearly so far ahead of Carew as a fielder (can anyone argue against that?) and somewhat as an offensive player. But in the end, 99% is not far off from 100%. :-)
   26. Rusty Priske Posted: December 04, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#2251554)
Nobody loves Rusty.

   27. rawagman Posted: December 04, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#2251561)
Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.
Carew debuts right at the top. The point was made before the think factory was sabotaged that Carew looks very similar to Beckley. I actually see him, in terms of his overall skills and value as being very close to Hugh Duffy. I think Carew's OPS+ advantage is a little misleading, but it is there, and Carew had the longer career, but Duffy was (in my mind) a more valuable defender and had a higher peak. The wash is close, but 3 years playing time gives Carew the #1 spot. Tommy Bridges and Vern Stephens join him in my PHOM. My personal catcher backlog of Freehan and Mackey are next in line.
New guys - Mike Hargrove falls just outside my 1B consideration set. Same with Richie Hebner - he was good, but his utter lack of a peak is beyond Beckleyesque. And he wasn't as good as Beckley to begin with. Larry Bowa's career OPS+ is 71. Marty Marion has an 81. Larry Bowa was a very good defender, but he was no Marion, and he is not in my consideration set. Garry Maddox may have been the best CF of the last 40 years, but maybe not and he is the 22nd CF in my set. I really liked Al Oliver and I comment more in his ballot spot (14). Rusty was found to be underwhelming. I can see the career votes he will deservedly get, but he simply doesn't suit my palate and starts off at 15 among RF. With his glove, I would have required at least another 10 points of career OPS+ or a good deal more black ink to slop higher. Steve Rogers is the # 16 SP (around 100 overall) He had a very impressive peak. 2 More years on his career would have him around 50. 4 more years would put him around 10. Koosman came close but doesn't make my consideration set. Rollie Fingers is hinting I should reexamine releivers. He starts at 55, but I will go over my peak system for closers and see how it helps him in the next few elections. I may require another top closer on the ballot to really make this study more exact.

Then there's Jimmy Wynn - I'm just not impressed. Not in my top 75.

1)Rod Carew - Used to think he was Jewish. In that sense, he shares further similarities with Paul Molitor. Whatever his race, religion or creed, he was a stellar hitter. (PHOM)
2)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
3)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
4)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
5)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
6)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
7)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
8)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
9)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. (PHOM)
10)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)
((10a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.
((10b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))

11)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.
((11a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
12)Orlando Cepeda
13)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.
14)Al Oliver - I was surpirsed by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
15)Wally Berger - super-underrated
16)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half.
17)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).
((17a)Juan Marichal))
18)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
19)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
20)Roger Bresnahan
21)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
22)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.
((22a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((22b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))

23)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
24)Chuck Klein
25)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
26)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit.
27)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.
((27a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))
28)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.
29)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?
((29a)Cupid Childs))
30)Pete Browning
31)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
32)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
33)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
34)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
35)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
36)Phil Rizzuto
37)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit
38)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
39)John McGraw
40)Jimmy Ryan
41)Cy Williams
42)Dolf Camilli
43)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
44)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
45)George Kell
46)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
47)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
48)Sal Bando
49)Pie Traynor - makes a leap to here.
50)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
51)Johnny Evers
52)Elston Howard
53)Bob Johnson
54)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
55)Rollie Fingers - He is the best releiver on this board, but I am not convinced that the value is high enough for enshrinement. Better peak and career length than Sparky. My system may be inherently harsh on closers, but I did have Wilhelm high enough to go PHOM in his first year, so I can't be that bad. I may need to revise peak in closers, but I'm comfortable enough with this ranking for Fingers as a starting point.
56)Bill Mazeroski - I need to revise my scoring regarding peak and all things offensive for pure "Glove" positions. Mazeroski would probably benefit from that, but not enough to ballot.
57)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
58)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
59)Red Schoendienst
60)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
61)Thurmon Munson - see below.
62)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
63)Johnny Pesky
64)Hippo Vaughn
65)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
66)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
67)Rocky Colavito
68)Denny Lyons
69)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
70)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.
71)Lon Warneke
72)Kiki Cuyler
73)Sparky Lyle - Reliever #2. Nothing to be ashamed of.
74)Urban Shocker
75)Alejandro Oms
   28. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 04, 2006 at 09:50 PM (#2251585)
Nobody loves Rusty.

I like you, but love is a little too strong a word for me. ;-)
   29. Juan V Posted: December 04, 2006 at 11:07 PM (#2251646)
We're in late 1990 now. My first "real" exposure to sports came with the World Cup that year. Shortly after that, I start getting intrigued about this other sport that is constantly on TV, but I have some questions. Like "Why are penalties thrown, instead of kicked?" or "Why does the goalkeeper have to block them with a big stick?"

So, 1991 ballot

1) ROD CAREW: I was part of the discussion that led to his comparision to Beckley. I take it back.

2) QUINCY TROUPPE: Best catcher elegible, and quite deserving IMO. How long before his day comes?

3) ALEJANDRO OMS: Great career, nice peak too.

4) GAVVY CRAVATH: There's still room for outfielders that hit like him.

5) JIMMY RYAN: Still can´t see why he´s so far behind GVH and Duffy.

6) KEN BOYER: Brooks Robinson with less glove and more peak.

7) JIMMY WYNN: Separated from his namesake Ryan, even though they're still similar. I keep thinking about rearranging the two (and Boyer, for that matter), but I always reach this conclusion.

8) BOB JOHNSON: I have overlooked his case for minor league credit. I'll follow DL, and assume it cancels out the war years, hence moving him up a bit.

9) CHARLEY JONES: ne of the trickiest players to evaluate, but if you give him blacklist credit, he´s a good one.

10) TONY LAZZERI: The relative drought of second basemen in the HOM is being addressed with, possibly, three consecutive second basemen getting inducted. Still, for those who like to go deeper, he´s a good one.

11) ROLLIE FINGERS: I agonized over him for a long while. Initally, he didn´t look all that great, but then I read Joe Dimino's case and added him points. Furthermore, I learned to trust my ERA+ sistem (as opposed to WARP) when it comes to relievers. This is good news for Sutter, as well. With this sistem, and with the reliever adjustment applied, he's similar to Billy Pierce and...

12) LUIS TIANT: I wouldn´t be surprised if the HOM in/out line ended up being drawn across the small space that separates him from Pierce and Fingers. Plus, he doesn't get any moustache credit ;-)

13) GENE TENACE: At least he was allowed to catch over 50% of his games. That, with his offense, makes him a valuable player.

14) JIM FREGOSI: A shortstop who could hit (at least during his Angel prime), during a long era when they were few and far between.

15) DOBIE MOORE: Back into my ballot. I believe his peak is somewhat overrated, but he's still good.

Off-ballot: Within each group, players are listed alphabetically. I did something I wanted to do for the last two "years", and drew finer lines between the groups.

16-22: Jake Beckley, Roger Bresnahan, Pete Browning, Charlie Keller, Dobie Moore, Edd Roush, Ken Singleton
23-27: Larry Doyle, Chuck Klein, Johnny Pesky, Rusty Staub, Pie Traynor
28-35: Bobby Bonds, Bob Elliott, Lefty Gomez, Frank Howard, Ernie Lombardi, George Scales, Reggie Smith, George Van Haltren
36-44: Dave Bancroft, Sal Bando, Orlando Cepeda, Dizzy Dean, Hugh Duffy, Nellie Fox, Marvin Williams, Ned Williamson
45-50: Lou Brock, Norm Cash, Bus Clarkson, Jim Kaat, Thurman Munson, Artie Wilson
51-56: Dick Bartell, Burleigh Grimes, John McGraw, Bobby Murcer, Bucky Walters, Wilbur Wood


Charlie Keller: I considered him for the final spot on my ballot. Both him and Moore are peak-first candidates, but Moore isn't completely career-less once you add Wreckers credit, which did it for me. With one spot opening in my ballot for next "year" (unless one of my off-ballot guys gets elected), it'll be his peak versus Beckley's career.

Pete Browning: He's on the queue, but behind Keller, who was probably the more valuable defender.

Edd Roush: Playing time issues here. I often like to group him with the 1890's centerfielders, and he's in between Ryan and GVH/Duffy. May sneak on a ballot sometime, but I don't know if he'll be ahead of Browning.

Nellie Fox: How is he that much better than all the little hitting, glovemen MIFs (not Aparicio but, say, Bancroft)?


Rusty Staub: Nice, but not "wow" career. Couple that with an underwhelming peak, and an existing clog of outfielders, and he's not that hot of a candidate.
   30. Juan V Posted: December 04, 2006 at 11:09 PM (#2251648)
The "Dobie Moore" in the first off-ballot list is actually Cannonball Dick Redding in disguise. Sorry about that :-)
   31. Jim Sp Posted: December 05, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2251701)
Rod Carew - Used to think he was Jewish.

indeed :).
   32. Jim Sp Posted: December 05, 2006 at 01:12 AM (#2251730)
I originally had a career based system that was based on OPS+ and ERA+...for pitchers it was basically the sum of (ERA+ - 90)*IP for each season, with an era adjustment for IP. For position players the idea was similar but there was both a positional and Win Shares fielding letter grade adjustment, and I used career rate stats not seasonal. The idea was to define HoM replacement level as something like the level of Ed Kranepool, Enos Cabell, and Tim Leary--players that had long careers but who I would say ever made any progress toward the HoM.

I augmented that fairly recently with a system based on WARP peak/prime, which I define as the sum of (WARP -5) for each season, throwing out anything under 5. For one ballot I tried using that system with some extreme results, now I multiply the result of my WARP peak system with the result of my ERA+/OPS+ system.

And I try to take my system with a grain of salt and use common sense.

I value defense and lighter-hitting positions more than most, I give a lot of war credit but not much other credit except (of course) for Negro league credit and catching credit. I follow the consensus pretty closely on Negro leaguers as I am not an expert in that area, all I know is what I've read in Riley's encyclopedia, the Bill James section in the NHBA, and the commentary of this group.

Roush – #71 with no extra credit. I suppose if I gave him every conceivable credit for holding out he’d make it, but I’m not there yet.

Browning—after his great season in the 1890 PL at age 29, not much. Not in my top 100.

Carew, Lemon, and Munson for PHoM. Fingers next in line.

Staub #37. Would love to put him higher though.
Steve Rogers #88. Underrated but not really close. Some nice ERA+/IP years.
Koosman #95.
Oliver. Not in top 100 but a very good player.

1) CarewNot a very good fielder, but hit like a HoM candidate 1B, while playing half his career at second. A career OPS+ of 131, weighted strongly on OBP. Great peak/prime 1973-1978. Good career length/durability. Easy #1.
2) Ken Boyer--PHoM 1976. 4 years above 10.0 warp3 plus a 9.9 and a 9.8. Great peak/prime 1956-1964. Good power and fielding from 3B position. WinShares doesn’t like him as much as warp, has him as a B+ fielder. His reputation would suggest that warp has his fielding valued more correctly. Will be very glad to see him go in this year—think his brothers will be interested in the news?
3) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
4) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
5) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
6) KellerThere’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
7) Dobie Moore--PHoM 1985. Gotta love a good fielding SS who can mash. Shortened career obviously hurts him, but still worthy.
8) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
9) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
10) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
11) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
12) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
13) FingersERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
14) TrouppePHoM 1988.
15) Dick Redding--PHoM 1985.
   33. dan b Posted: December 05, 2006 at 02:59 AM (#2251831)
PHoM 1991 – Carew, Wilhelm, Foster

1. Keller PHoM 1967. 1989 re-evaluation moves him ahead of Duffy in my backlog. Now giving him 20 WS for 1938, 32 WS for 1944 and 1945. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.
2. Carew My grading system gives just enough peak credit to Keller to edge out Carew who does not have enough peak in any of my 3, 5, 8 or 10 year measures to be above the HoM median.
3. Dean PHoM 1976. 1975 reevaluation of great pitching peaks put Diz on my ballot for the first time.
4. Roush PHoM 1942. Better than Ashburn
5. Walters PHoM 1968. Nice peak.
6. Duffy PHoM 1912. I’ve been looking at how players on the ballot compare with the median level of already enshrined HoMers whose credentials are post 1893 MLB using WS. Duffy would be in the top half using 5 consecutive seasons, 10 consecutive seasons and 8 best seasons.
7. Wynn, J PHoM 1986. NHBA #10 CF.
8. Boyer, K PHoM 1987. More deserving than Sewell, NHBA #12.
9. Fox, N PHoM 1987.If Maz could hit like Nellie, the 1960 WS hero would have been elected by now.
10. Bando Close to Boyer, James has him ahead and may be right. Expect he will be a PhoMer. NHBA #11.
11. Singleton Can’t see WS users having him way off ballot while voting for Bonds.
12. Bresnahan PHoM 1928. SABR Dead ball era committee has him #1. No major league catchers between Ewing and Hartnett is not being fair to all eras.
13. Howard, F I’ll take Hondo’s peak over Bobby Bonds, but ….
14. Bonds, Bo … Barry’s dad was pretty good.
15. Leach PHoM 1926.
16. Cravath PHoM 1967. mle credit where credit is due.
17. Howard, E
18. Munson
19. Cooper, W PHoM 1942.
20. Burns, G. Came close to making PHoM during the 1929-1932 trough. Probably should have. His 10-consective year peak is above the HoM median.
21. Berger
22. Staub
23. Cepeda
24. Tiant
25. Browning PHoM 1912.
26. Cash, N
27. Rizzuto Could move up.
28. Willis, V PHoM 1941.
29. Mays, C
30. Doyle PHoM 1930.
31. Chance, F PHoM 1921.
32. Jones, C – I have voted for him (4) times – 1898 thru 1901. When I dropped him in ’02, he received only 2 votes. Ed Williamson was on 18 ballots; Arlie Latham drew more support with 3 votes. My 1898 ballot comment – “9. Jones. Two-year hold out probably costs him a couple places”. Nobody was giving credit for not playing back then, as we hadn’t tackled issues like war and mil credit yet. If as many voters had treated his hold out years like he was an all-star back then as are doing so now, he may have been elected by 1920. His 1988 top-10 finish pushed me to re-evaluate for 1989 and give him holdout credit. A reconstructed PHoM based on if I thought then like I think now, would have put him in my PHoM during the trough years of 1929-32 if not 1921.
33. Grimes
34. Ryan
35. Van Haltren Do 3 years of slightly below average pitching really merit Van Haltren this much more support than Jimmy Ryan?
36. Redding Fared well in the Cool Papa’s survey, as did Spots Poles and Dobie Moore.
37. Elliott
38. Brock not enough peak to be higher
39. Pinson
40. Smith, Reg less peak and less career than Brock
41. Moore - I like high peak, short career pitchers, but need more career from hitters. If Moore, why not Rosen?
42. Rosen If a great 5 consecutive season peak were the only measure we considered, Rosen would have been elected in 1964.
43. Arlett
44. Traynor
45. Cicotte Better character and a couple more good years made possible by better character would have made him a HoFer if not a HoMer.
46. Gomez More peak than Tiant.
47. Murcer
48. Mazeroski
49. Newcombe If one of Newk’s supporters will tell me how much NeL credit to give him, he could move up. I am giving him (2) 20 WS seasons of military service credit to get him this high.
50. Fingers
   34. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 05, 2006 at 04:28 AM (#2251922)
1. Rod Carew - Long career, great peak. MVP type seasons at second base and first base.

2. Bucky Walters - Great peak and good career value, 3000+ IP 115 ERA+.

3. Quincy Trouppe - Very good hitting catcher who had a long career.

4. Ken Boyer - Very good defender, very good hitter, with a pretty damn good peak.

5. Rusty Staub - Very long career (11th all time in games, 30th all time in ABs) with a decent peak. 59th in career total bases, 72nd in career XBH, 36th in career times on base.

6. Dizzy Trout - Nice peak. '44 was fantastic, he was robbed of MVP by teammate Newhouser.

7. Jimmy Wynn - Very good hitter and peak while playing a decent center field.

8. Jimmy Ryan - Good hitting center fielder, long career

9. Bob Johnson - Outstanding hitter, never below a 125 OPS+ in his major league career.

10. Nellie Fox - Great defender, average hitter. Long career, 82nd in career times on base.

11. Jake Beckley - Good hitter, played forever. 86th in career XBH.

12. Gavvy Cravath - Superb hitter, not much of a defender. Gets a couple of minor league seasons added to his major league totals. 4th on the all time home run list when he retired.

13. Ken Singleton - 132 OPS+. Very good peak, 4 year with an OPS+ over 150.

14. Bobby Bonds - 130 OPS+. 461 SB, 332 HR, 5 30/30 seasons.

15. Vada Pinson - Long career, good defensive center fielder, decent hitter. Over 300 career win shares.

16. Norm Cash
17. Hugh Duffy
18. Edd Roush
19. Bob Elliott
20. Tommy Leach
21. Harry Hooper
22. Luis Tiant
23. George Van Haltren
24. Alejandro Oms
25. Buzz Arlett
26. Orlando Cepeda
27. Gil Hodges
28. Burleigh Grimes
29. Reggie Smith
30. Willie Davis
31. Fielder Jones
32. Dick Redding
33. Pie Traynor
34. Jim Kaat
35. Wally Berger

Moore, Browning, Keller - Great peaks, but not enough career value.
   35. Paul Wendt Posted: December 05, 2006 at 04:46 AM (#2251931)
15. Rollie Fingers best HoF speech ever (makes my pHoM this year)

yest, have you read many HOF speeches? where? any others especially interesting?
   36. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 05, 2006 at 01:03 PM (#2252043)
>I'm finding myself oddly bothered by the idea of his being unanimous the year after Morgan wasn't, though. :)

How do you feel now, Mark? ;-)
   37. sunnyday2 Posted: December 05, 2006 at 01:40 PM (#2252061)
>1. Keller PHoM 1967. 1989 re-evaluation moves him ahead of Duffy in my backlog. Now giving him 20 WS for 1938, 32 WS for 1944 and 1945. James puts just ahead of Kiner, and he may be right. I think we are shortchanging the WWII generation.

I think this overrates Keller, but I agree that we are shortchanging the WWII generation. Our results are not much different (if at all) to what they would be if we didn't award any MLE credit for military service time.

I would add that the integration era of black players, some of whom were affected first by the war and then by the organizational/institutional turmoil surrounding integration, are getting a double whammy. I think Chris F. (post #13) overrates Don Newcombe (#8 on his ballot) but I appreciate the willingness to think outside the box a little bit.
   38. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2252118)
> I'll follow DL, and assume it cancels out the war years, hence moving him up a bit.

Does that make me a leader? Time to start assembling a case for Virgil Trucks.

Fun family story about Carew. I was watching the 1991 Twins victory parade on TV with my Dad and Grandpa and Grandpa was bothered about Al Newman having a wife who was white. He complained for a minute or two until I mentioned Rod Carew's wife was white (I'd just read the autobiography). He didn't say another word. As we left Grandpa's I said to my Dad "He probably would have had a heart attack if I told him Carew's wife was Jewish." Dad laughed pretty hard about that one.

I'd recommend Carew's autobiography to kids except he has practically a whole chapter about his usage of chewing tobacco. I think they could have just left that out entirely.

I slotted Carew in my all-time rankings and he ends up right on top of Harmon Killebrew. I guess the Killer or Carew debate will never be settled.
   39. sunnyday2 Posted: December 05, 2006 at 03:24 PM (#2252134)
I have a ball that Carew hit into the 3B bleachers about 1974ish that I then got autographed by Sir Rodney. Unfortunately, he signed in disappearing ink or something, because the signature has pretty completely worn away.

I would take Killebrew any day and I grew up watching them both. There, that settles it. NOT.
   40. TomH Posted: December 05, 2006 at 03:28 PM (#2252138)
1991 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Rod Carew {new}
Second basemen who win lots of batting titles and run real well don’t grow on trees.
2- Jake Beckley (4) [12]
Great career.
3- Ken Boyer (5) [4]
Good stick, fine glove, durable, very high-quality league, sweet prime, fine rep as a clubhouse leader (as opposed to that Nellie guy who couldn’t hit as well, had a weaker prime and played in a weaker league…)
4- John McGraw (6) [46]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of pre-1960 3Bmen and 1890s infielders.
5- Bucky Walters (7) [15]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
6- George Van Haltren (8) [19]
A career of Three Hundred and Eighty Win Shares when translated to a full schedule. Our other bazillion backlog outfielders fall well short of that.
7- Bob Johnson (9) [17]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
8- Frank Chance (10) [60T]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath.</u>
9- Dick Redding (11) [14]
10- Charlie Keller (12) [9]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him above the OF jumble.
11- Louis Tiant (14) [27]
12- Jimmy Wynn (15) [5]
He doesn’t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and how many outfielders do we want to elect? I’m lukewarm.
13- Burleigh Grimes (13) [24]
14- Reggie Smith (off) [ ]
Small bonus for always showing up on winning teams wherever he went.
15- Rollie Fingers {new}
Wow, I am of two minds. Using many metrics, he ain’t much different than Kent Tekulve or many other fine relievers. But I add a large post-season bonus of 8 “wins” (equivalent regular season). And he was better, as JoeD explained, than his ERA+ shows. All told, I have him a little behind the Goose for being the 2nd best relief pitcher in MLB history, as of 1990. Comparing him to starters is hugely problematic, but adding in about a .30 ERA penalty for relief work makes him borderline. Rollie, you start here; at the bottom, but be grateful it’s you actually ON the ballot, while Mr. Bresnahan gets left off again.

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters.

Pete Browning – cover up his seasons before age 25, when he was in a very weak AA, and he looks like Babe Herman.

Dobie Moore is in the top 35; considering I’m more of a career voter, that’s a high complement.

Nellie Fox is around 35; he isn’t any different than Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, or Bancroft. I’d rather take Bill Monroe than any of them.
   41. EricC Posted: December 06, 2006 at 01:05 AM (#2252198)
1991 ballot.

1. Rod Carew Middle of the pack HoM type; enough to place him #1 this year.

2. Wally Schang Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement.

3. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit at this peak level.

4. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election.

5. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits).

6. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

7. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential bottom-half-of-the-HoM "bats".

8. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

9. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF.

10. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

11. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre- expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

12. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

13. Jimmy Wynn Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

14. Roger Bresnahan Mutiple years of all-star level C play and wasn't too shabby in the CF either.

15. Sol White Star-quality middle-infielder, mainly 2B, with long career late 1880s to mid 1900s. Unfortuately, too much of his record is lost to know how accurate this rating is.

Top 10 returnee Boyer has been on my ballot in the past; he dropped in a revision that I did a few years ago. Also, I see fewer PHoM-level 3B than the apparent HoM consensus.

Moore was a very good SS, but I would prefer Dick Lundy.

Edd Roush played in a weak league at a time when there were a lot of great CF.

I believe that the election of Pete Browning would be a mistake. Note about the 1890 PL: yes, it was the strongest of the 3 leagues that year by default, but it was not a historically strong league: all NL seasons 1892-1900 were stronger. Pete Browning had a career year at age 28 in this league, with no essentially no competition from players age 24-27 due to the Civil War baby bust. Taking context into account, Charley Jones, Beckley, Duffy, McGraw, Ryan, and Van Haltren, of the less-well-represented 1890s (1870s in Jones' case) would all be better 19th C. choices.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system. I can see the argument for electing more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM, but this is one of those rare cases where I'd like to see a candidate run the gauntlet for a while before possible election.

Al Oliver was good, but it's hard to see such a peakless candidate getting elected while more appealing peakless candidates, such as Sam Rice and Lou Brock, aren't making the HoM.
   42. Sean Gilman Posted: December 06, 2006 at 01:25 AM (#2252224)

1. Rod Carew (-)--A fair amount better than Browning.

2. Pete Browning (4)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

3. Charley Jones (5)--Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson and Browning look pretty interchangeable to me. (1929)

4. Tommy Leach (6)--May be the most underrated candidate out there. Great career value, fine peak and played two premium defensive positions. (1942)

5. Edd Roush (7)--A good all-around outfielder who somehow got lost in the rush to induct every OF from the 30s. Bumped over Doyle this year. (1985)

6. Larry Doyle (8)--Another underrated infielder. Sisler-esque peak , according to win shares.(1945)

7. Ken Boyer (9)--The borderline infielders are a mess. Elliott, Boyer, Sewell, Doyle, Gordon, Doerr, Fox, Sisler, they are all essentially the same, all are about equally deserving of being in or out of the HOM. I think Boyer’s defense trumps Elliott’s bat. (1975)

8. Hugh Duffy (10)--High peak, medium length career, the best of a massive group of borderline OF candidates. (1964)

9. George Van Haltren (11)--Almost a HOMer not too long ago, will he make it eventually? (1966)

10. Carl Mays (12)--More comparable to Mendez than their respective support would seem to merit. (1968)

12. Alejandro Oms (13)--Another good, yet underrated, all-around outfielder. (1986)

13. Ken Singleton (14)--Ridiculously comparable to Wynn.

14. Jimmy Wynn (15)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.

(Earl Averill)

15. Bobby Bonds (16)--Wynn, Singleton and Bonds are essentially interchangeable to me.

16. Charlie Keller (36)--Discovered an error on my spreadsheet wherein Keller wasn't getting any WW2 credit. So he jumps up the backlog but not quite enough to get on the ballot this year.

17. Frank Howard (17)
(Joe Gordon)
18. Nellie Fox (18)
19. Quincy Trouppe (19)
(Red Faber)
20. Bob Elliott (20)
(Red Ruffing)
21. Rollie Fingers (-)
22. Sal Bando (27)
(Bob Lemon)
23. Bucky Walters (22)
24. Wally Berger (23)
(Ted Lyons)
25. Dick Redding (24)
26. Ed Williamson (25)
27. Dobie Moore (26)
28. Rusty Staub (-)
29. Vada Pinson (21)
30. Norm Cash (28)
31. Bobby Murcer (29)
32. Orlando Cepeda (30)
(Billy Pierce)
33. Vern Stephens (31)
34. Roger Bresnahan (32)
35. Lou Brock (33)
36. Dave Bancroft (34)
37. Jimmy Ryan (35)
38. Rabbit Maranville (37)
39. Tony Lazzeri (38)
40. Phil Rizzuto (39)
(Rube Wadddell)
(Rube Foster)
41. Gavy Cravath (40)
42. Reggie Smith (41)
43. Jake Beckley (42)
44. Bobby Veach (43)
45. Luis Tiant (44)
46. Dizzy Dean (45)
47. Gene Tenace (46)
48. Roy White (47)
49. Tony Oliva (48)
50. Boog Powell (49)
   43. Rick A. Posted: December 06, 2006 at 01:43 AM (#2252245)
I tend to lean towards peak/prime, although a pure career candidate can sneak through at an important defensive position. I'm an anti-timeline, pennant-is-a-pennant voter. I give credit for wars, holdouts, strikes, blacklisting and players being in the minors when they're clearly MLB caliber, as well as NEL credit. I'm solidly in the WS camp, although I'll also look at OPS+, ERA+, IP, PA and ranking among contemporaries at their position. I do think that WS does miss on occasion, and I give a subjective bump to candidates who I think WS is off on.

Rod Carew
Red Ruffing
Clark Griffith

1991 Ballot
1. Rod Carew – Elected PHOM in 1991
2. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3. Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position. Elected PHOM in 1939.
4. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
5. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
6. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
7. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
8. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
9. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
11. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
12. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
13. Dizzy Dean –Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
14. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
15. Jimmy Wynn – Another time and place he’d be a HOFer. Elected PHOM in 1985

Required Disclosures
Boyer Best of Boyer, Bando and Elliott, but none are close to my ballot.
Fox Mid 20's. May make my PHOM eventually.
Keller Just misses my ballot. Elected PHOM in 1986

New Candidates
Rollie Fingers Just behind Keller.
Rusty Staub Behind Beckley, which means he's not anywhere near my ballot.

Off the ballot
16-20 Keller,Bresnahan,Cravath,Fingers,Newcombe
21-25 Leach,Mays,Monroe,Fox,Cooper,
26-30 Easter,Scales,Johnson,Boyer,Elliott
31-35 Bando,Tiernan,Singleton,FHoward,Trouppe
36-40 Shocker,HSmith,MWilliams,Doyle,FJones
41-45 McGraw,HWilson,Rizzuto,Munson,Traynor
46-50 Schang,AWilson,Cepeda,Tenace,Clarkson
51-55 Stephens,Poles,Matlock,Winters,Rosen
56-60 Bond,Mullane,ACooper,Van Haltren,Ryan
61-65 DiMaggio,Berger,Burns,Otis,R.Smith
66-70 Pinson,Pesky,Chance,Taylor,Byrd
71-75 Fournier,Brock,Cash,Lundy,McCormick
   44. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 06, 2006 at 02:11 AM (#2252280)
1. Rod Carew: An obvious Hall of Famer with one of the more interesting stances and strides ever. How many guys do we remember for stances and strides? Carew, Franco, Simmons, Rickey, Ott, Oh for sure. I wouldn’t wonder that Winfield (and his sort of lack of a stance?) wouldn’t be on such a list. Lesser lights: Counsell and Kruk in modern times. Anyway, just idling here since Carew’s many, many achievements make him so abundantly qualified that he requires little explanation: all-time top ten as a 2B and top 15 as a 1B.

2. Bucky Walters:
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. He was having a great peak before WW2. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it.

3. Quincy Trouppe:
Best catcher available. Too bad we can’t find more consensus on this guy. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

4. Charley Jones:
Best left fielder available. A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices all because he wanted to get paid. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

5. Wilbur Cooper:
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

6. Larry Doyle:
I’m coming around on him. The dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

7. Hugh Duffy:
His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Wynn gang.

8. Sal Bando:
There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that
a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

9. Edd Roush:
I just don’t exactly know what to think about the third-tier CFs except that I’m finding Roush creeping upwards lately. Roush, Duffy, Ryan, Van H., Wynn. They are so friggin’ close. And my current system and my Keltner-based system don’t agree on the order in each instance. But I’m coming to rely more on the Keltner-type system and it’s support of candidates who exhibit a lot of dominance over league and position. Roush was ever so slightly more dominant than Duffy, so I’d like to give him the nod. Though, in fairness, I think that Duffy had slightly better positional peers. Roush battled Max Carey with a little Dode Paskert and Lloyd Waner tossed in too. Duffy had Ryan, VH, Hamilton, and Griffin in CF, plus some fine players at the corners when he played there. Mike W., you owe me a few favors now... ; )

10. Nellie Fox:
Yeah, this one’s surprised me too. He’s been remarkably close to my ballot for a while, but I never would have dreamed he’d have sniffed it. But the truth be told, I’ve been ignoring him a bit because I have a tendency to prefer “my kind of player” and Fox isn’t that kind of player. But truth be told, he’s the second-best 2B on the ballot, and he’s not very far behind Cupid, and he’s among the top 15 2Bs we’ve seen so far. Those are excellent credentials. He also exhibits good positional dominance and was a many-time All-Star type player. He wouldn’t be the HOM’s best player, but he’s a very good selection.

11. Pete Browning:
Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs.

12. Tommy Leach:
Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

13. Elston Howard:
He and Bresnahan are just about joined at the hip, particularly once war/NgL credit gets factored in. Actually I’m uncoupling them this week and moving Ellie ahead after further review.

14. Roger Bresnahan:
Outstanding catcher-hybrid candidate. Good peak, especially for the position, and a robust offensive game.

15. Ken Singleton:
Well, you knew it would happen at some point. Here’s Singleton. He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons. I’m becoming more comfortable with the conclusions of my Keltne-based system, and this vote is reflective of that.

Rollie Fingers: My niece early in her life referred to digits as findars, which is what I call Fingers in my head. The same way that I refer to Sandy Alomar Jr as Shalomar and subsequently his brother as Ralomar. I could go on but I’ll spare us all the indignity.

Anyway, I’m not voting for Fingers. The chart I posted on the 1991 discussion thread (around post #220) was what cemented my decision. I was leaning that way because I noted that Fingers was never dominant over his league in the way that guys like Gossage and Sutter were. He never was the best RP in the league over any three-year span in his career, and I value that highly as a marker. Meantime, I’m not sure how I feel about IHR. There’s rather mixed evidence on it when you stop and look at it, and without greater contextualizing, I’m not sure how valuable the information is. Fingers’ LEV doesn’t seem all that impressive to me, particularly not in his peak seasons (and peak is very important for RP), and his effectiveness (ERA+) ain’t sharp. It’s not like his defenses aren’t good either. I’m not wild about the idea that a career reliever is a good HOM candidate, and as you all know, I have very grave concerns about using post-season stuff. I just don’t know how many HOM relievers there ought to be, but right now, I feel as though the number is 4-8 but with four-six being more likely. Wilhelm’s in the HOM lounge already, Gossage and Sutter will get my vote (safe to say by 1991). That leaves Smith, but his career ain’t over yet. In 1991 Eck’s coming off four or five brilliant seasons in relief, and I’ll be curious to see how his case pans out. Presumably there will be at least one post-Eck-era closer who will make it too. IMO the line does not start behind someone with as many questions as Fingers, it starts after Wilhelm, Sutter and Gossage. So you can see, the stars are all aligned against Rollie in my universe. Which is fine; I don’t like Beckley either, nor again do I much care for Dick Redding as a candidate right now. I suspect Fingers leans toward being that kind of a candidate for me, and it’s not my type.

Rusty Staub: Not enough career to be Mr. Career, not enough peak to be a peak or prime guy, not enough anything to be a candidate I much like. Lots of All-Star kind of years, not so many big, big years. And in RF, you need the big, big years. Singleton has them. Staub not so much.

Al Oliver: Who will buy this wonderful candidate? Such a career I never did see…. But no peak at all. Oliver is a member of the All-Musicals Team!

C: Bye Bye Birdie Tebbets and Fiddler on Phil Roof
1B: Mike Sweeney Todd Benzinger
2B: Uribetown
3B: DeJesus Christ Superstar
SS: Beauty Bancroft and the Beast
RF: Manny Get Your Gun!
CF: Al Oliver!
LF: You’re a Good Man, Charley Jones
DH: Hedwig and the Angry Mincher

P: Smokey Joe Williams’ Café
P: The Kenny Rogers Follies
P: The Unhittable Dolly Gray
P: My Fair Lady Baldwin
P: Pal Joey Jay
RP: The Best Little Tom House in Texas
RP: Cadaret
RP: Gottspell
RP: The Grand Dotel

Jerry Koosman: Joins Jim Kaat and Kirk Saarloos in the all double-vowels rotation. Jim Katt-lite might also describe his career.

Steve Rogers: Ever on the lookout for the stealth candidates, I was all pumped about him—“ooh, ooh, Montreal’s version of Dave Steib!” Then I found out he wasn’t as good as I thought he might have been….


Dobie Moore:
I really like Dobie Moore. The current thinking shows him as a super valuable player. But I don’t yet see enough to push him up into my electable area. I’m inclined to give him more credit during the Wreckers years than he’s getting because he truly hit the ground running in 1920. I suspect he was better than a rising talent on the Wreckers, that he had left 3B quite early in the Wreckers’ era, and that quite possibly he was quickly the team’s top player as a hard-hitting shortstop. Too bad I can’t prove it.

I had him 15 several elections ago, but I backed off. He’s not far at all from my ballot, but I have reservations about him. I see the Brooks’ prime v. Ken’s prime argument as probably true, but he also wasn’t the best 3B of his era in his league. Yet he had stiffer competition than either Brooks or Bando. But he was also never able to bubble up to the best very often in part because he rarely put together MVP-type seasons…only one that my WS-centric world sees. Furthermore, as you all know, I don’t really trust WARP’s fielding stuff so much, so I’m hard-pressed to accept him as a glove-first third baseman with hitting.

Wynn never dominated his league like the cluster of 1890s CF did, and that’s pretty much the difference. And they played in a very strongly concentrated league too. Like with Stargell, I don’t have any great opposition to his probable election, but I don’t feel compelled to vote for him either.

Keller: I don’t give minor league credit to Keller, which he’d need to be prominent on my ballot. As is, with war credit, he’s as good as Ralph Kiner, Since I never cared much for Kiner, well, that’s that.
   45. OCF Posted: December 06, 2006 at 02:39 AM (#2252314)
Sean Gilman, you have no #11.
   46. Sean Gilman Posted: December 06, 2006 at 06:28 AM (#2252559)

Everyone moves up one spot, so Keller gets onto my ballot.

I promise I'll learn to count over the next couple weeks.
   47. Mark Donelson Posted: December 06, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2252879)
How do you feel now, Mark? ;-)

Much better, thanks! :)
   48. Evan Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:09 PM (#2252927)
Pretty sure this election is going to set a record for most points between voting slots. Carew's going to finish about 900 points ahead of second place, whoever it is.
   49. Al Peterson Posted: December 06, 2006 at 07:02 PM (#2253064)
1991 ballot. Rod Carew, please come to the head of the class. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Rod Carew (-). Lots of luster from those batting titles. Of course he did many things well so I have no problem putting him at leadoff position for the ballot.

2. Dick Redding (4). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years.

3. Norm Cash (5). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though contradicts the rest of his work.

4. Tommy Leach (6). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

5. Ken Boyer (7). Like a Robinson in quality, didn’t quite play as long. The minor league credit argument is interesting since he was a pitcher part of the time down on the farm.

6. Bobby Bonds (8). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it.

7. Tony Mullane (9). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

8. Dobie Moore (10). Dobie returns, with his high peak. Some credit given for the military years. Hughie Jennings probably a fair comparison for similar shaped career.

9. Reggie Smith (11). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

10. Roger Bresnahan (12). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

11. Bob Johnson (13). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

12. Bucky Walters (14).
Crunched his value into a few seasons, combined solid pitching with a decent stick. Not too much of a ding for the war year discount.

13. Jimmy Wynn (31).
Something must have gone amiss last week when I dropped him in the rankings. I’ve felt he was close to Reggie Smith, this puts him back in that neighborhood. Peakish argument, was a three true outcome player.

14. Alejandro Oms (16). My thoughts are his career is sketchy based on concrete records but that what has been said about him is quite favorable. Thumbs up for the Cuban.

15. Mickey Welch (18). He’s back! Got a 300 game winner just waiting to be picked up. Did he pitch to the score, thus bringing his other metrics down? I’m leery of that argument but impressed enough for a return to the bottom of the ballot.

16-20: Mays, Bancroft, Poles, Keller, Fingers
21-25: Ryan, Byrd, Browning, C Jones, Willis
26-30: Easter, Shocker, Schang, Duffy, Tiant
31-35: Beckley, Munson, Luque, Elliott, Rizutto
36-40: Grimes, Bridges, Brock, Tenace, Joss
41-45: Trouppe, Roush, Bartell, Ben Taylor, Doyle
46-50: Cicotte, Stephens, Traynor, Wilbur Cooper, Cross

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Beckley(#31), Roush(#42), Charley Jones (#24), Browning (#23), Trouppe (#41). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. Good and played a long time, a great season or two would have meant election by now. Roush, Jones and Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. The hitting is there, just questions about which members of the OF glut to ballot. Trouppe is neither my favorite catcher or NeL player so he is waiting below. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell. Others buy it, not me .

New guys: Fingers at 20 is a fine 1st placement. Still mulling it over but I’ll start conservative. He’ll likely make a ballot in the future. Staub impresses me that he made the most of meager natural ability but his defense was only good for a few years before the DHing and PHing. His hitting better be outstanding in such a case and he does not have that. Al Oliver – call me when you are better than the backlog clones filling my candidate list. Koosman will not be joining Ryan and Seaver in any HOM party.
   50. . . . . . . Posted: December 06, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#2253090)
Very many of the ballots are missing the required explanation of a non-vote for Keller. These ballots include votes for short-career candidates like Dobie Moore or Jimmy Wynn.

As a big Keller supporter, I'm going to insist that the rule is enforced this week, and not just with a one line "not enough career" throwaway if the ballot has inconsitencies.
   51. jimd Posted: December 06, 2006 at 07:57 PM (#2253152)
Pretty sure this election is going to set a record for most points between voting slots. Carew's going to finish about 900 points ahead of second place, whoever it is.

That would be a record.

The current record is 809 points, set in 1974, Mathews (2nd) over Sisler (3rd).

If you adjust for the number of voters, the record is 16.00 points per ballot cast,
set in 1971 (48 voters), Spahn (1st) over Griffith (2nd).
   52. Al Peterson Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2253227)
Looks like I've been called out on Charlie Keller for not mentioning his placement of #19 on my ballot. In comparison to Moore and Wynn who are #8 and #13.

Career length

Keller I give credit for 9 prime years (38-46), Moore 10 years (17-26), Wynn 12 years (65-76). For the one playing the easiest position to have the least years doesn't make me happy.

Win Shares

Keller, whether at Newark or the Yankees, played in the most favorable conditions to accumulate Win Shares. His teams were dynasty level almost every year. Do I give extra credit for having the best teammates? Wynn did wonderful things with average Astro teams and Moore, if you believe the NeL and California league material, might have been MVP level where ever he played in the early 20s.

Anyway, they are all close. I'll try and do better in the future not to forget mentioning the top returnees.
   53. . . . . . . Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:52 PM (#2253251)
Thanks Al Petersen.

Rusty? DL? jhwinfrey? Adam Schafer? You need Keller disclosures.
   54. Daryn Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2253261)
Staub is my definition HOVG player. He is not much worse than Van Haltren and Ryan whom I have at the bottom of my ballot but I have decided he belongs with Reggie Smith and the other corner outfielder/firstbasemen I have between 30 and 40 on my ballot. I have a harder time giving the benefit of the doubt to those I have seen play versus those who are just numbers.

Roush is in my 30s, Wynn makes my top 50 and Keller really isn't in my consideration set. Keller only played 5 full seasons and is only entitled to two years of war credit if you are so inclined and has no black ink. I can accept that he is a better player than Bob Horner and Kevin Mitchell (2 of his BRef sheets and giggles comps), but those guys won't be close to anyone's ballot.

1. Rod Carew – a great career candidate with a super peak as well. Not close for #1.

2. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed put him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: Zero. Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

3. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games. After voting for him at the very top of my ballot for 50 years, I have come to realize that his peakless career is rarer than I thought and also less deserving. He doesn’t need defensive bonus points to rate this high in my opinion.

4. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers. Best career pitcher eligible.

5. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

6. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

7. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

8. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Hunter, Kaat, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

9. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

10. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

11. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

12. George Van Haltren, of – 40 wins, 2500 hits, never dominated. Pretty good adjusted win shares.

13. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.

14. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. As of 1991, I think he is meritorious, so I have him here and could have him as high as 9th. If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

15. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.

16. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
17. Ken Boyer, 3b – nice glove – pretty indistinguishable from Gordon, Sewell and Leach.
18. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.
19. Dobie Moore
20. Jim Kaat
   55. Adam Schafer Posted: December 06, 2006 at 11:13 PM (#2253450)

Rusty? DL? jhwinfrey? Adam Schafer? You need Keller disclosures.

Keller is close to my ballot, you'll see that I have him in the #21 spot. Simply put, I like him, but he doesn't have the necassary career value to push him up any further on my ballot.
   56. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2006 at 11:49 PM (#2253491)
I thought "ranks 19th in my spreadsheet" was a disclosure but here goes.

I vote on career accomplishments, peak or seasonal accomplishments mean nothing in my spreadsheet. Charlie Keller, even with an extra year and a half for war credit, doesn't have enough career value to make my ballot. Instead of giving minor league credit I don't discount his war years similar to my stance on Bob Johnson. I think he's doing remarkably well for a player with only 5 full major league seasons.
   57. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2253510)
I thought "ranks 19th in my spreadsheet" was a disclosure

AFAIAC, it is, DL.
   58. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 12:20 AM (#2253524)
Pretty sure this election is going to set a record for most points between voting slots. Carew's going to finish about 900 points ahead of second place, whoever it is.

Which is fitting, since he owns the record for greatest spread between a batting crown winner and the runner-up. :-)
   59. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 12:26 AM (#2253530)
Pretty sure this election is going to set a record for most points between voting slots. Carew's going to finish about 900 points ahead of second place, whoever it is.

That would be a record.

The current record is 809 points, set in 1974, Mathews (2nd) over Sisler (3rd).

If you adjust for the number of voters, the record is 16.00 points per ballot cast,
set in 1971 (48 voters), Spahn (1st) over Griffith (2nd).

It's very probable that we will break the record for lowest % of all possible points, too.
   60. sunnyday2 Posted: December 07, 2006 at 12:51 AM (#2253556)
>I thought "ranks 19th in my spreadsheet" was a disclosure

>>AFAIAC, it is, DL.

Yeah. Keller is on my ballot. But as for the other disclosures, I submit a top 30 (15 on ballot and the first 15 off). If a required disclosure is anywhere on my top 30, that indicates he's being considered and not just forgotten. I don't make any other comment in those cases. So I'm with John.

My understanding is that an actual comment is required for players who are on ballot.
   61. Qufini Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:16 AM (#2253583)
It's very probable that we will break the record for lowest % of all possible points, too.

Clark Griffith and Bobby Doerr will be so disappointed.
   62. . . . . . . Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:29 AM (#2253592)
Yeah. Keller is on my ballot. But as for the other disclosures, I submit a top 30 (15 on ballot and the first 15 off). If a required disclosure is anywhere on my top 30, that indicates he's being considered and not just forgotten. I don't make any other comment in those cases. So I'm with John.

But isn't the whole point of the disclosure so that there can be an exchange of ideas, be it in the form of critique or suggestion? If someone put, say "Keller-18th", that basically says nothing, whereas if someone says, "Keller-18th-Not enough prime seasons for my system", then I could respond with, "Did you give MiL credit for his last MiL season?", where upon the voter can respond, "I don't believe in MiL credit except in extreme cases." etc etc.

A disclosure without reasoning is hardly a disclosure at all.
   63. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:34 AM (#2253593)
But isn't the whole point of the disclosure so that there can be an exchange of ideas, be it in the form of critique or suggestion?

The rule was instituted to make sure that each voter hadn't forgotten or ignored a strong candidate who had a good chance to be inducted.
   64. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:36 AM (#2253595)
Clark Griffith and Bobby Doerr will be so disappointed.

I'm sure Bobby and Clark's ectoplasmic lifeforce will get over it. :-)
   65. . . . . . . Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:41 AM (#2253599)

The rule was instituted to make sure that each voter hadn't forgotten or ignored a strong candidate who had a good chance to be inducted.

In the case of Keller, there are plenty of voters who explicitly state in their ballots that they had "forgotten" to give proper credit to Keller (or Jones, or Roush), and only reconsidered after being forced to look at the candidate again when they reach the magic #10.

I think that especially in the case of "extra-credit" candidates, its important for voters to provide a brief explanation so that it's clear they're considering the totality of the evidence. I'm less concerned about a voter whose top 5 includes Van Haltren, Beckley and Staub, but there are folks out there whose voting patterns would be consistent with a Keller vote, but who didn't explain their rationale. I think asking for 17 blurbs rather than 15 is not an onerous request.
   66. karlmagnus Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:42 AM (#2253601)
Doerr's not ectoplasmic, at least only recently and obscurely if he is. According to Baseball-Refernce he's still with us. I know he became eligible decades ago, but even in 2006 he's only 88.
   67. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:02 AM (#2253623)
Doerr's not ectoplasmic, at least only recently and obscurely if he is. According to Baseball-Refernce he's still with us. I know he became eligible decades ago, but even in 2006 he's only 88.

I know, karlmagnus. Maybe I should have phrased it this way instead: I'm sure Bobby and the ectoplasmic lifeforce of Clark Griffith will get over it.
   68. . . . . . . Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:03 AM (#2253624)
Indeed, Bobby Doerr looks like he's in great shape. Hell, I'd kill to be fishing for steelhead now, let alone at 88.
   69. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:27 AM (#2253658)
I think that especially in the case of "extra-credit" candidates, its important for voters to provide a brief explanation so that it's clear they're considering the totality of the evidence. I'm less concerned about a voter whose top 5 includes Van Haltren, Beckley and Staub, but there are folks out there whose voting patterns would be consistent with a Keller vote, but who didn't explain their rationale. I think asking for 17 blurbs rather than 15 is not an onerous request.

Since I have become a great friend of Keller in the past "decade," I certainly have no problem with you or anyone else here asking for further explanation. I hope to one day make up his plaque for him. My only point was that the top-ten disclosure rule doesn't necessarily require an extensive defense on each ballot.
   70. Arrieta, Gentile Arrieta Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:42 AM (#2253668)
I’m uncharacteristically early, but I had some time, I’ll be out of town for a few days, and if I don’t do this now, I’ll be furiously typing Monday evening, which is no fun.

Carew, Fingers and, egad, Dazzy Vance make my PHOM. Dazzy, after all these years.

1991 ballot:

1. Rod Carew, 1b/2b: Had the whole package except for power. Peak, prime, career. (eligible 1991, PHOM)

2. Rollie Fingers, rp: As the 2nd or 3rd best reliever to date, he’s higher in the positional pecking order than anybody else eligible. Either just ahead or just behind the maybe-still-active Gossage, who spent half the year in Japan because nobody here wanted him. Fingers is the all-time saves leader, but that won’t last because of the way reliever usage is changing. The ace reliever has evolved into the closer, but is this an intelligent design? ;-) (eligible 1991, PHOM)

3. Roger Bresnahan, c: Great player whose versatility illustrates his quality. (eligible 1921, PHOM 1929)

4. Nellie Fox, 2b: 94 OPS+ is a little off-putting, but he was a top-notch defender, durable, very valuable to the White Sox offensively and defensively. 8 all-star caliber seasons. (eligible 1971, PHOM 1977)

5. Burleigh Grimes, sp: 270 wins, .560 W%, Retro-Cy, 5 STATS AS, 9 all-star quality seasons. (eligible 1940, PHOM 1942)

6. Carl Mays, sp: Good peak candidate, pretty good hitter. (eligible 1935, PHOM 1986)

7. Ken Boyer, 3b: Best 3b candidate by a nose over Traynor & Elliott. (eligible 1975, PHOM 1987)

8. Pie Traynor, 3b: Largely forgotten here, but had 11 quality seasons and was a 6-time STATS all-star. (eligible 1941, PHOM 1987)

9. Orlando Cepeda, 1b: Edges Cash as a 1b candidate. Better peak, one more good season, MVP (whether deserved or not). (eligible 1980)

10. Bobby Bonds, rf: I hadn’t really looked closely at him at first. I’m more impressed with him than Wynn, so I’m slotting him around where Jimmy had been. (eligible 1987)

11. Lefty Gomez, sp: Low innings total, but a terrific peak, more career than Dean, good black & gray ink, HOFS, HOFM, W-L, ERA+. Yes, he pitched for a lot of good teams. I think he had something to do with them being good. (eligible 1948)

12. Bob Johnson, lf: The career isn’t overly long, the peak isn’t outstanding, but he was one of the top outfielders in his league almost every year. 6 STATS all-star teams, 11 quality seasons. If we discount 10% for wartime performance, it’s 5.9 and 10.8 respectively. ;-) (eligible 1951)

13. Pete Browning, cf: Monster hitter, pretty monstrous on defense. (eligible 1899, PHOM 1927)

14. Vern Stephens, ss: Positional balance puts him on -- I’ve been neglecting shortstops somehow, and he looks like the best of that field. (eligible 1961)

15. Lou Brock, lf: Great player in a narrow sense. OPS+ underrates him. Post-season play elevates him. (eligible 1985)

Required comments:
Dobie Moore: High quality, but short career hurts.
Edd Roush: He’d been off my radar a long time, I was surprised to see him so high, so I checked his thread. I’m not inclined to give credit for his mini-, midi- and maxi-holdouts. I’m also not wowed by his numbers in context of the time.
Charlie Keller: (Guess we’ve got to write essays. Sigh.) Even if I credit ~240 games of good performance in ’44-’45 (my what-ifs for wartime don’t go so far as imagining a peak), he comes up short on career value. Only 7 full-time seasons including those, and a precipitous decline after WW2. ‘Nuf ced, ‘zop?
Jimmy Wynn: Pretty good peak, career, but I’m not as impressed as others, and think the home-park business is overstated. His home/road numbers don’t seem to support it.

New people:
Rusty Staub: Very good for a long time, but seldom a top-3 outfielder. I hate leaving a 350-WS, 100Warp3 guy off the ballot, but so it goes.
Al Oliver: Also very good, but less there than Staub.
Jerry Koosman: He was good, too, but not good enough.
   71. sunnyday2 Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:42 AM (#2253741)
>A disclosure without reasoning is hardly a disclosure at all.

>>The rule was instituted to make sure that each voter hadn't forgotten or ignored a strong candidate who had a good chance to be inducted.

The actual ballot doesn't have to do *every*thing. There are a whole bunch of other threads. Like John says, on the ballot it's just a question of demonstrating that you didn't fail to consider a guy or forgot that he was out there. I don't think Charley Keller, just to name one, has suffered from a lack of discussion/analysis. Or, this:

>>>Forgot to mention Jim Wynn is #36, Trouppe #52, Beckley #55.

Are we really short of discussion of Jake Beckley?
   72. karlmagnus Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#2254015)
Perefctly simple. You're bored with discussing Jake Beckley, you just need to elect him :-)
   73. Rusty Priske Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:58 PM (#2254034)
Disclosure for Keller? Sure.

I am a career voter. Keller's career falls well short of rating. In fact, he has fallen completly off my consideration set.

I go the other way, where I can't understand the lack of voting for Staub. Of course I was equally taken back by the lack of support for Brock, which is really the same issue.
   74. jhwinfrey Posted: December 07, 2006 at 04:51 PM (#2254271)
Charlie Keller? I must have missed his name in the top 10.

I have Keller ranked #67, so he'll never make my ballot. He's behind Gavvy Cravath and ahead of Bobby Murcer. Good players, but not deserving of induction. Keller's career is too short and his peak too low to get my support.
   75. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 07, 2006 at 05:35 PM (#2254339)
I have Keller ranked #67, so he'll never make my ballot.

JHW, I think you might be underestimating how wide-open the backlog eletions of 2067-2070 will be.
   76. sunnyday2 Posted: December 07, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2254358)
Well, if you follow the logic of the talent pool or population pool, the fact is that every ML player eligible after 2050 will be a better baseball player than anybody in the HoM now! So I think the backlog will be in trouble.
   77. favre Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:14 PM (#2254563)
I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Rod Carew
2. Charley Jones

Count me among the voters who would have Carew #1 even if he had only played first in his career. As others have noted, he has a similar career to Beckley, only with a peak.

Jones averaged an OPS+ of 164 between 1876-1880, his age 26-30 years. I have no problem giving him credit for his blacklisted seasons. He was a star before and after those years, and I’m not inclined to penalize someone banned from working by his employers because he tried to collect back pay.

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments), a career OPS+ 150 or therebouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s, eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits), not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than anyone except maybe Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

3. Jimmy Wynn
4. Jake Beckley

Sisler’s election means we have narrowed down the 1B gap from thirty to twenty years, 1897 until 1915. Beckley is similar to Minoso: very good defense, not a particularly high peak, but a long prime. In fact, if you add in Dr. C’s MLE’s, Minoso’s career stats start looking a lot like Beckley’s 125 OPS+ in 10, 470 plate appearances. Minoso’s peak wasn’t much higher (best season 155 OPS+, Beckley’s 152), although it was certainly longer.

Wynn did not have a huge peak, but his prime is excellent, posting six seasons with an OPS+ between 140-167, five of those as a CF. He doesn’t have much outside his prime, but I’m a prime voter, so I don’t care.

5. Dobie Moore
6. Vic Willis

Moore is very comparable to Banks without the mediocre years at 1B. I will take Moore’s 1921-5 seasons over Joe Sewell’s best five; if you give Moore credit for his Wrecker days, then I don’t see why we put Sewell ahead. We only have five pitchers in from 1896-1900. Willis pitched from 1898-00, so he’d give us another hurler in that era. More importantly, he had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154), so we’ve elected most of the guys like him.

7. Nellie Fox
8. Bob Elliott
9. Ken Boyer

So far we only have five infielders from the 1950s, with no one new on tap. (Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That is simply too few for the decade. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrives on the scene (as I was reminded) in 1963, so that would be about an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

Boyer and Elliott make it back onto my ballot after the early 80s third basemen glut. It’s very hard for me to separate the two in my head; Bob was a little better hitter, Ken a little better at defense, but WS has them with almost identical career values. Elliott was clearly the best 3B of his time, while Boyer was not, so he gets a slight edge. Boyer would also give us another 1950s infielder. Sal Bando is awfully close to these guys as well, although I’m not crazy about his defense.

10. Bucky Walters
11. Roger Bresnahan

While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old.

There’s been some good discussion about the appropriateness of balancing eras and positions. Obviously I think it’s a good idea. While I would not vote for somebody whom I felt did not deserve it just to fill a “slot,” it does make me look more closely at players, and I do use it as a tiebreaker. And there are some gaps that just seem too large—for example, the twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. He also would help fill a small gap we have in CF in the early oughts, 1901-5.

12. Gavvy Cravath
13. Tommy Leach
14. Dick Redding
15. Ken Singleton

Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke. Similar to Kiner, although Kiner has the higher peak. Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. So far we’ve elected seven third basemen who played before 1950, which seems too few for eighty years of organized baseball. 324 career WS by no means warrants automatic induction, but is impressive for a primarily defensive player.

I can’t remember if someone has already pointed this out, but Chris’ career projections for Dick Redding (230-177, 3556 innings, ERA+114) are extremely close to Luis Tiant. (229-172, 3486 innings, ERA+114). Redding was compared to Joe Williams by his contemporaries; he likely had a higher peak than El Tiante, and therefore is higher on the ballot.

I’m throwing Singleton some love. If I’m going to vote for a 300 WS OF, I like voting for the guy with nine top ten OBP finishes. Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there are many 1970s outfielders heading for induction. Stargell and Yastzremski are in, although they played a lot of 1B in the decade; Reggie and Winfield are coming; then there’s a bunch of guys—Parker, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Bonds Sr.—clumped together. I think I like Singleton better than the rest, although I haven’t given the Cobra or Dewey a complete look yet.

16-20: Wally Schang, Frank Howard, Larry Doyle, Luis Tiant, Charlie Keller

Not in my top fifteen:

Charlie Keller See Jones comment. Currently #20. I don’t give minor-league credit to twenty-one year olds, although he does receive full war credit. As I said in the Jones comment, that puts him in a glut of outfielders with similar arguments.

Pete Browning See Jones comment (again). I’m more sceptical of the AA than other voters, although there’s no doubt that Browning could mash.

Edd Roush Had some playing time issues. I give candidates from underrepresented positions/eras more weight; Roush was a contemporary of Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, and Torriente. That doesn’t remove him from consideration, but it doesn’t exactly lend a sense of urgency for his candidacy, either.
   78. Rob_Wood Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:46 AM (#2255121)
1991 ballot from this highly career voter.

1. Rod Carew - overrated by many but still best of the ballot
2. Jake Beckley - luv the career, though peakless
3. George Van Haltren - deserving star of the underrepresented 1890s
4. Ken Boyer - solid hitter and great defender in superior NL
5. Bob Johnson - solid hitter, solid career (w/minor lg credit)
6. Bobby Bonds - good combo of peak and career (where's the luv?)
7. Nellie Fox - very good second baseman for a long time
8. Rusty Staub - good peak + good career equals middle of this ballot
9. Dobie Moore - great all-around shortstop, though shortish career
10. Tommy Bridges - luv the strikeouts & win pct with minor league and wwii credit
11. Bob Elliott - mired with woeful Pirates and Braves
12. Jimmy Wynn - tremendously underrated player
13. Edd Roush - very good center fielder and solid hitter (with holdout credit)
14. Charlie Keller - I think this is the first time I have him on my ballot
15. Charley Jones - with credit for "blacklist" years
16-20. RSmith, Klein, Maranville, Traynor, Aparicio

Not voting for Browning (around 50th).
   79. yest Posted: December 08, 2006 at 04:00 AM (#2255136)
yest, have you read many HOF speeches? where? any others especially interesting?

First I have all the recent ones on tape
and I read selections from a few in biogrophies most notably Jackie Robinson
plus you can also here some on the MLB website
and somewhere on the hall of fame web site you can find the recent ones plus 1936 ceromony (where they only spoke a few sentinses)

as to the second quistion I liked Ozzie's yellow brick road speach, Sandberg's (31 scarafise hits)for the good of the game speech (but deap down might I just like his speach for his saying he'll vote for Santo), Bill Mazorokis's break down, Ted Williams's Negroe Leauge appeal, Rizzuto's (I knew there had to be a reason he made it) rembering his anonsing career, and for some strange reason I liked Carton Fisk's marthon speach (mostly for the bits about free agency ect. and the Yankees Redsox rivalry ) I'm not sure if you can count this but I also liked Buck O'niol's speach
   80. Rick A. Posted: December 08, 2006 at 11:49 AM (#2255338)

Thanks for sharing that link. It was great to hear the voice of my youth, Phil Rizzuto, again after all these years.
   81. DL from MN Posted: December 08, 2006 at 01:59 PM (#2255366)
People here archive the speech, ESPN Classic talks over top of them live...
   82. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 03:58 PM (#2255472)
1991 ballot

Carew, Mendez, and Cravath make my PHOM this year. Dean, Oms, and Fingers are on deck.

1. Rod Carew (x, PHOM) – His years at first base weren’t too bad, but like Banks, he doesn’t really need them to make my PHOM. One of the ten best 2B ever.

2. Charlie Keller (2, PHOM) – Best peak on the board (outside of McCovey). If you give him WWII and MiL credit he could have up to 7 MVP level seasons (30+ WS) and two solid All-star level seasons. That’s almost a decade of high level performance, only Joe D, Teddy Ballgame, and Stan the Man were better during his era.

3. Hugh Duffy (5, PHOM) – Best of the 1890’s CF trio based on his superior peak. I agree with WS that Duffy deserves some credit for his team over performing not only their pythag but also their RS and RA projections.

4. Dick Redding (6, PHOM) – 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era after Smokey Joe Williams and that ain’t bad. I like his peak as much as Mendez’ and he had more career. Seems to be our best backlog pitcher.

5. Dobie Moore (7, PHOM) – I had him slightly higher until new numbers showed that he was more Ernie Banks without the decline phase than Hughie Jennings. Still, that is worthy of the HOM.

6. Bucky Walters (8, PHOM) – Very good pitcher with a nice peak. He was baseball’s best pitcher in 1939 and 1940, could hit a little too. I am looking over how his defense may have artificially raised his IP numbers, but I am still pretty sure that I like him more than my next few pitchers.

7. Jimmy Wynn (9, PHOM) – Very similar to guys like Doby, Averill, and Berger. That’s two HOMers and a guy in my top 25. Very nice peak and a decent prime, not much career, but then again I am not too worried about filler seasons. Underrated historically in large part due to his home park, the Astrodome. I wonder how he would have looked in an era where a lower replacement level meant great players had more great seasons.

8. Quincey Trouppe (10, PHOM) – We elected the wrong NeL catcher, it is that simple. Trouppe was a better hitter and was a better player at his best than Biz Mackey was.

9. Elston Howard (11, PHOM) – The more I look at him the more he looks like Quincey Trouppe. Both were good hitting catchers with nice peaks who played decent portions of their careers at other positions. However, I prefer Quincey’s time at 3B to Elston’s time in the OF and Quincey played more baseball while Elston sat behind Yogi Berra.

10. Ken Boyer (12, PHOM) – Very good defensive 3Bman. I will admit that he is receiving a sort of 3B bonus, but if I did not give these out there would be very, very, very few 3B in the HOM and I can’t justify that. Not much better than Elliot (#29) or Rosen (#17), but he was better.

11. Pete Browning (13, PHOM) – Quite possibly the best hitter on the board right now. However, concerns about the quality of the 1880’s AA keep him below Keller and Kiner for me. Our recent discussion on Charley Jones has made me realize that Browning has many of the same problems Jones does and so he falls a few spots.

12. Gavvy Cravath (14, PHOM) – Finally coming around on him. Great peak in the Majors and he definitely deserves MiL credit.

13. Dizzy Dean (15) – High peak pitcher who I view as Koufax Lite. His peak wasn’t quite as good, he had a little less career, and he wasn’t even has bad of a hitter. Still ballot worthy, however.

14. Alejandro Oms (17) – First time on my ballot as he vaults over Al Rosen. I see him as similar to, but slightly better than, George Van Haltren. I also prefere Oms to HOMers Willard Brown.

15. Rollie Fingers (x) – Not 100% sure what to do with him. Out of the relievers we have seen thus far I would have to agree that he is second to Wilhelm. Out of the relievers that we can look at I only prefer Wilhelm and Gossage. If he isn’t elected this year, I could seem him moving wildly as we look at more relievers.
   83. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 04:03 PM (#2255477)
16-20 Rosen, GVH, Bresnahan, Fox, Doyle
21-25 McGraw, Willis, Shocker, Roush, Elliot
26-30 Berger, Jones, Kaat, Newcombe, Rizzuto
31-35 F. Howard, Bando, Tiant, Singleton, Cepeda,
36-40 Burns, Chance, Munson, Tenace, Veach
41-45 Lundy, Wilson, Bancroft, R. Thomas, Monroe
46-50 Leach, Ryan, Klein, Stephens, Johnson

Required Disclosures:
Fox – I haven’t voted for him yet, but his current spot (#21) is about as high as he has been. In the same boat as Pierce when it comes to my PHOM. I guess my biggest concern is his lack of a bat.

Beckley – Not in my top 60 (I stop ranking players at that point) and most likely not in my top 75. I think that HOMers should have spent at least some of their career as one of the best in baseball and Beckley is not even in the top 10 in any season. His best years came not in the 10 team NL but before and after and a team with him as their best player is highly unlikely to win a pennant. Need I continue?

Roush – Good player, but I think not playing full seasons for whatever reason really hurts his peak. Better than Carey, Bell, and Minoso, however.

C. Jones – I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man. There is a chance that he acted the way he did in order to sever ties with Boston, in which case the league had some reason for acting the way that it did. However, I do give him one full season of credit (which in my system is better than two half seasons)because he wasn’t the only guilty party. Even with credit there are many other questions like league strength, deviations from the mean, and extrapolating 60-80 game seasons into 162 game seasons. All of these cause some downward pressure on Jones best seasons (as well as some upward pressure on some of his worst) and pull him down a bit. I have to say that I can see no way in which he is better than Charlie Keller, Jimmy Wynn, or even Gavvy Cravath. Not the worst choice we will have made, but I think he gets a boost because he was hard done by and that really isn’t fair to other players.


Rusty Staub – In my system Staub’s peak and prime are very similar to Kiki Cuyler only he has 50 more career WS. However, his career advantage is almost purely fueled by a number of seasons as a part time DH and PH. Those seasons pretty much count as zero in my system, so I have him as a nudge above Cuyler, who peaked (I believe) at #35 back in the 1940’s. In other words, this is a big ol’ pass.
   84. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:19 PM (#2255566)
I do not give Jones full credit for his missing years as I believe that he was not some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man.

A funny thing just occured to me. I boost Charley for being done in by the big, bad man, but I Charlie nada for being the big, bad man's decision to let Charlie be blocked. And Schmeagol is the exact opposite. Not saying one of us is right, just that it's funny that's all.
   85. sunnyday2 Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:15 PM (#2255634)
I just read that Lisa Leslie is taking a year off from the WNBA--actually the news story said she "will miss" the season--because, get this, she is pregnant with her (and I think her husband's, though I don't want to get into any value judgments here) first child.

So let's say someday we're picking a WNBA Hall of Merit. Extra credit?

And does it matter if she is "taking a year off," as I put it, or if she "will miss" the season, as the news story actually puts it. IOW does it matter whether she became pregnant on purpose or whether they were using protection but had an accident?
   86. sunnyday2 Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:19 PM (#2255638)
And then I forgot the punch line--was she:

>some innocent that was done in by the big, bad man.

Or by a big bad man thing.
   87. Daryn Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:30 PM (#2255651)
Leslie -- definitely extra credit, and I am not even a big fan of war credit.
   88. yest Posted: December 08, 2006 at 06:48 PM (#2255662)
So let's say someday we're picking a WNBA Hall of Merit. Extra credit?

I would be spending a lot less time on the internet
   89. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 08, 2006 at 10:59 PM (#2255912)

I have to say that your second sentence doesn't quite make sense to me and it confuses me. Which word are you missing?
   90. jimd Posted: December 08, 2006 at 11:25 PM (#2255929)
Ballot for 1991 (cast)

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

I am a peak/prime/career voter. Prime tends to dominate the ballot as Career has an easier time of it in HOM elections, and short Peaks don't get too far in my system.

1) R. CAREW -- Overrated. Would he make the top-half of the HOM? Doesn't matter though, nobody else on this ballot would either. Prime 1972-78. Best player in 1977 by WS; candidate by WARP. 1st-team MLB All-Star (1B) in 1977. Other star seasons include 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975 at 2b; 1976 and 1978 at 1B. Honarable Mention (HM) in 1969 at 2b, 1980 at 1b.

2) B. WALTERS -- Best of the backlog. Prime 1939-44. Best player in 1939; candidate in 1940 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1939, 1941, 1944; WS adds 1940. Other star seasons include 1936 and 1942.

3) K. BOYER -- Joins my ballot of good defensive primes. Prime 1956-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1958; WARP adds 1960, 1961. Other star seasons include 1956, 1959, 1962, 1963, 1964.

4) J. WYNN -- Splitting hairs between him and Singleton. Prime 1965-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1968, 1969, 1974, plus 1972 in RF; WARP adds 1970, WS adds 1967. Other star seasons include 1965, 1975.

5) K. SINGLETON -- Better peak than Bonds; not quite as much prime as Wynn. Prime 1973-81. Best player candidate 1977, WS adds 1979. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1975 and 1977. Other star seasons include 1973, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1981; also 1976 in LF.

6) J. KAAT -- Belongs. 14 HOM "bats" were born 1893-1903 (Sisler, Heilmann, Ruth, Torriente, Charleston, Terry, Goslin, Suttles, Stearnes, Averill, Simmons, Waner, Bell, Gehrig); don't tell me that 10 pitchers born 1938-48 are too many.Prime 1961-1975. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1962; WS adds 1966. Other star seasons include 1968, 1974, 1975. HM in 1961, 1969, 1971.

7) F. JONES -- Still an all-star player when he walked away. I still think he rates ahead of Ashburn, but it's close. Prime 1900-08. 1st-team MLB All-Star (CF) in 1908; WARP adds 1902 and 1907. Other star seasons include 1900, 1901, 1903, 1904, 1905, 1906.

8) B. BONDS -- Scored much higher than I thought he would. Very nice prime; marginal on career. Those who go to extreme either way will miss him. Prime 1969-77. Best player candidate 1970 by WS. 1st-team MLB All-Star (RF) in 1970; WARP adds 1971 and 1973. Other star seasons include 1969, 1972, 1974, 1975, 1977, 1978. HM in 1979.

9) P. TRAYNOR -- I see the HOM as being somewhat heavy on "bats" (OF/1B) and went to a system organized around position groups (arms/bats/gloves). Traynor was the major beneficiary of the reorg. Prime 1923-33. 1st-team MLB All-Star (3B) in 1923, 1925, 1927, 1931; WS adds 1929, 1932, 1933. Other star seasons include 1926. HM in 1928 and 1930.

10) F. DUNLAP -- Great two-way player; bypassed for some reason. Amibidextrous, too. Reportedly could catch and throw equally well with either hand. Useful in this era before modern fielding gloves forced a player to choose one hand for each. Prime 1880-86. Best Player candidate 1880-81 (WARP). 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1880, 1881; WARP adds 1882, 1883, and 1885. 1884 in the UA is hard to evaluate but may also be #1. Other star seasons include 1886. May be eligible for MiL credit pre-1880.

11) L. TIANT -- Pitching candidate very close to the in/out line. Win Shares does not like him. Tended to alternate good years (even) and off years (odd). Prime 1966-1978. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) in 1968, 1974; WS adds 1976. Other star seasons include 1972 and 1973. Honorable Mention in 1966 and 1978.

12) E. HOWARD -- It's close, but I have him ahead of Freehan. Prime 19??-64. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) in 1961, 1963, 1964. Other star seasons include 1962. HM in 1958.

13) T. MUNSON -- Close to Howard and Freehan. Don't understand the lack of support. Prime 1970-78. 1st-team MLB All-Star (Ca) 1976; WARP adds 1973. Other star seasons include 1970, 1975, 1977. HM in 1971, 1972, 1978.

14) D. MOORE -- He's back. Some compare him to Jennings. I see the analogy, but Jennings was arguably the best player in baseball during his peak. I don't think Moore can make that claim.

15) B. VEACH -- Good peak relative to great competition. Prime 1914-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (LF) in 1915; WARP adds 1916, 1917. Other star seasons include 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922. HM in 1914 and 1918.

16) D. BANCROFT -- See Traynor. Prime 1916-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) 1920 and 1921; WS adds 1922. Other star seasons include 1916, 1917, 1918, 1925, 1926.

17) B. MAZEROSKI -- Prime 1957-66. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) 1960 and 1964; WARP adds 1958. Other star seasons include 1962, 1963, 1966. HM in 1957, 1961, 1965.

18) R. MARANVILLE -- Better WARP career than Beckley. Where's the luv from the career voters? Prime 1913-22. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SS) in 1914 and 1916 by WS. Other star seasons include 1913, 1915, 1917, 1919, 1921, 1922, and 1929. WWI service in 1918.

19) N. FOX -- Prime 1951-60. 1st-team MLB All-Star (2B) in 1957 and 1958; WS adds 1955 and 1960. Other star seasons include 1951, 1952, 1954, 1958. HM in 1953.

20) D. TROUT -- Prime 1942-48. Best player in MLB baseball, 1944. 1st-team MLB All-Star (SP) 1944 and 1946; WARP adds 1943. HM in 1942, 1945, and 1948.

Just missing the cut are:
21-22) Ray Schalk, Dizzy Dean,
23-24) Roger Bresnahan, Norm Cash,
25-26) Quincy Trouppe, Hugh Duffy,
27-28) Jake Beckley, Dick Redding,
29-30) Wilbur Wood, Bob Johnson,
31-33) Jim McCormick, Edd Roush, Charley Jones,

Keller: peak is not high enough, career is not long enough, when compared to other marginal OFers.

Some say, in their defense of Pete Browning, that there is a point of diminishing returns when it comes to discounting players in weak leagues; I trust that they are giving Fred Dunlap the benefit of the same doubt when it comes to 1884.
   91. Brent Posted: December 09, 2006 at 03:58 AM (#2256103)
1991 Ballot:

1. Rod Carew – Overrated, but still makes it to the top of a weak, backlog ballot. (PHoM 1991)

2. Phil Rizzuto – I don’t lobby for him because my preferred in-out line would be drawn just above him. But he’s underrated by this group for several reasons – more defense than offense; probably lost part of his peak to the war; playing time limited by the teams he played for. (PHoM 1967)

3. Ken Singleton – (PHoM 1991)
4. Hugh Duffy – (PHoM 1931)
5. Bobby Bonds – (PHoM 1987)
6. Jimmy Wynn – (PHoM 1985)
7. Alejandro Oms – (PHoM 1967)
A cluster of outfielders who didn’t have super-high peaks or super-long careers, but each of them put up many seasons at the all-star level.

8. Dobie Moore – Among the short career, high peak candidates, I think his is the best case. (PHoM 1986)

9. Sal Bando – See my comparison of Bando and Childs. Edges Boyer. (PHoM 1987)

10. Gavy Cravath – Among the pure hitters in the backlog, he has the strongest credentials. (PHoM 1976)

11. Ken Boyer – Is this his year? (PHoM 1975)

12. Bucky Walters – Over 7 seasons (1936, 39-42, 44-45) he averaged 18-13, 2.0 wins above team, 270 IP, 123 DERA+, 72 OPS+. MVP for 1939. (PHoM 1958)

13. Nellie Fox – Contributed with both the glove and the bat over a fairly long career. 3 Gold Gloves even though the award wasn’t offered until he was age 29. (PHoM 1979)

14. Dizzy Dean – Over 6 seasons (1932-37) he averaged 22-13, 3.6 wins above team, 288 IP, 129 DERA+, 182 SO, 67 BB. MVP for 1934, runner up in 1935 and ‘36. (PHoM 1958)

15. Elston Howard – An outstanding peak from 1961-64 and a bit of extra credit for delays in integration move him back onto my ballot. (PHoM 1977)

Near misses:

16–20. Welch (PHoM 1966), Redding (PHoM 1976), Grimes (PHoM 1940), Bresnahan, Keller
21–25. F Howard, Newcombe, Cepeda, R Smith, Leach (PHoM 1932)
26–30. Brock, Van Haltren, Arlett, Easter, Staub

Other consensus top 10:

Pete Browning –
I think his selection would be a mistake – poor fielder, weak leagues, short career, and trouble staying in the lineup.

Charlie Keller – I used to say that I was a peak voter, but lately this electorate has gotten to be even more peak-oriented than I’m comfortable with. I guess I’ll start calling myself a prime voter.

Edd Roush –
He had only 5 seasons in which he played 90 percent of his team’s games. In a field this tight, that's enough to knock him out of the running.

Other new arrivals:

Rusty Staub # 30 – like Brock, he was so good for so long that he can’t be ignored, but he doesn’t stand out quite as much as some of the other candidates.

Rollie Fingers # 46 – maybe someday I’ll decide I’ve got the relievers all wrong, but for now this is where he ranks.

Al Oliver and Jerry Koosman were fine players but didn’t make my top 100.
   92. rico vanian Posted: December 09, 2006 at 04:23 AM (#2256110)
1)Rod Carew - Great hitter. Nuff said
2) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.
3) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.
4) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.
5) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times
6) Rollie Fingers - First of the great modern day relievers.
7) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.
8) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.

9) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.
10) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.
11) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.
12) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.
13) Addie Joss – Dead ball (and dead man) issues…but what a peak.

14) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.
15) Ken Boyer - MVP. 7 all star games.

No soup for…
16) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.
17) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
18) Edd Roush – I like Rice better, but I am coming around on Roush.
19) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
20) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
21) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
22) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
23) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
24) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
25) Jim Kaat- I am comfortable with him in this position. Career length enabled him to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think he’s good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
26) Dobie Moore- Too short of a career.
27) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
28) Reggie Smith &
29) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons...
30) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the ten catchers (up to 1988)

None of the other newbies are top 50.
   93. Chris Cobb Posted: December 09, 2006 at 04:46 AM (#2256115)
1991 Ballot

Time to pause from campaigning and vote. I’d rather see Fingers elected than any of Boyer, Wynn, and Fox, but I won’t.

Review of my ranking methodology. I base my rankings on three measures: career, total value above average, and peak rate, which I calculate in both WARP1 and WS, adjusting WS in various ways for pre-1930 players. Giving equal weight to each system, I rank players against their immediate contemporaries (grouped by the decade in which they had the most value). I then calculate percentage value above or below the approximate in-out line for that decade (which is set based on number of ML and NeL teams and population factors) and use that percentage to integrate the decade-by-decade rankings. Then I make subjective adjustments.

Since 1987, I have been more swayed in my subjective adjustments than I have in the past by issues of positional balance. That has become a second tie-breaking factor, along with peak talent, in arranging the candidates whom my system sees as just about equal. So I have brought more infielders on to my ballot.

(#) = Last year’s ranking
% = percentage above below approximate in-out line value for the player’s decade.

1. Rod Carew (n/e). % = 1.2649. He was only a truly great player for about five years, but for those five years he was phenomenal, probably the best position player in the American league over that stretch. And he was a very good player before and after that. I have him slightly ahead of both Palmer and Jenkins among 1970s stars.
2. Quincy Trouppe (4). % = 1.0453. Discussion of the anecdotal record solidifies Trouppe’s case for me. I think he is disadvantaged in NeL lore because he was not slick behind the plate. The comment cited from one former NeL player that Trouppe was a great athlete who could have played other positions, but he was only an ok catcher strongly suggests that the oral history underrates Trouppe for the same reason it has overrated players like Oliver Marcelle and Judy Johnson.
3. Edd Roush (5). % = 1.0667. Arguments for credit for hold-out seasons were persuasive with me.
4. Charlie Keller (6). % = 1.0589. Both WARP and win shares show him as having an excellent peak (no war credit included) and, with appropriate war credit, respectable career value.
5. Rollie Fingers (n/e) % = 1.0632. Fingers shows up comfortably above the in/out line in my system. He was not as lights-out as we have come to expect the modern closer to be, but he was still highly effective, extremely durable, and highly leveraged. If I gave credit for post-season performance, I would rank Fingers higher, but I don’t. He has an argument to rank higher than this, but I want to see more discussion before I decide to trust fully my system’s handling of relievers. I’m sure it’s not seriously overrating them, as other top relievers of the 1970s so far eligible have fallen short: Hiller, Marshall, McGraw, and Lyle all are headed for my Hall of Very Good. So the fact that Fingers looks significantly better than they do seems significant.
6. Dave Bancroft (7). % = 1.0476. If he could have stayed in the lineup more, we’d have elected him long ago, as he was a slightly better ballplayer than Sewell with a longer career. But having few seasons of 145+ games hurts him. Someone asked how Nellie Fox was better than Bancroft. A pertinent question, since they were equal offensive players, and Bancroft was a top defender at a more important position. Fox definitely enjoys an edge in seasonal-durability, but I prefer Bancroft’s defensive edge.
7. Alejandro Oms (8) % = 1.0410. As in the case of Roush, I was wrong to be ignoring the evidence of his quality.
8. Tommy Leach (9). % = 1.0394. Outstanding player for a long time.
9. Jimmy Wynn (10). % = 1.0386. I was overrating him a bit, not sure why.
10. Jake Beckley (11). % = 1.0250. Gradually rising as the backlog clears. Staub’s record and his are not so different as to make it outrageous to look at them together, but Beckley’s defensive performance was consistently superior, giving him the edge over Le Grand Orange, who was never outstanding defensively, and who had very little defensive value at all over the second half of his career.
11. Rabbit Maranville (12) % = 1.1502. An all-time great defensive shortstop, and hit enough in his prime to play at a consistent, all-star level. Current leader among eligible players in career WARP1 even without war credit for 1918 (which he also merits), he is the only long-career shortstop between Wagner and Appling. RCAP study suggests I was overvaluing him, but he still has a strong career argument.
12. Luis Tiant (13). % = 1.0229. Best pitcher available. I see him as having about the same overall value as Jim Bunning: a little less than Billy Pierce. His prime was broken up by arm injuries, but he was excellent on either side of his injury years. Much better than Hunter and Lolich. I wouldn’t elect him now, but I think he should join the upper backlog.
13. Ken Boyer (14). % = 1.00. Ranks ahead of Norm Cash among 1960s borderliners on league-strength considerations. Positional considerations move him ahead of Bus Clarkson and Charley Jones.
14. Bus Clarkson (15). % = 1.00. Strong hitter; versatile defender.
15. Bobby Bonds (17) % = 1.0184. Similar to Jimmy Wynn, but not as strong a peak. I was conservative with Bonds to start, but head-to-head comparisons with other 1970s outfielders lead me to conclude that Bonds was the genuine article, so I am bringing him on to the ballot over Charley Jones, as I conclude that my system’s preference for Bonds is justifiable. Indeed, he is the kind of player my system is not entirely friendly to, as he had a very short decline phase. Jones may see the ballot again next year.

1990 Off-Ballot, Sitting on the All-Time in-out Line

16. Charley Jones (16). % = 1.00. This year I prefer Bobby Bonds.
17. Norm Cash. (18) % = 1.0098. A dark-horse candidate. Below Boyer and Bonds on league-strength considerations.
18. Nellie Fox (21). % = 1.00. I support his eventual election, but I see him as the weakest “should elect” infielder now eligible. Average bat, excellent glove, excellent durability at a position where durability was difficult make for an excellent second-base package, but it doesn’t match what Bancroft, Maranville, and Boyer have to offer.
19. Rusty Staub (n/e) % = 1.0646. My system argues for a higher placement than I have given Staub, but few players that I have ranked have added more career value in a series of below-average seasons, so I believe my system overrates him. He was legitimately outstanding during his peak in Montreal, however, so he should be in the mix. A career-slice approach suggests that the contemporary “bat” players to whom he is closest in value are Bonds and Norm Cash, so I am starting him just a little below the two of them. His profile is also a lot like Jimmy Ryan’s, actually, which provides another justification for ranking him about here, just a half dozen spots ahead of the best outfielder from the 1890s still eligible.
20. Gavvy Cravath (19). % = 1.00. Not as well-rounded as Roush, Oms, Minoso, and Wynn, not as strong on peak as Keller, Kiner, or Jones. But still a tremendous hitter whose value has been overlooked. Slips a little bit as a result of recent discussions, which have made me fairly certain that he does not have a hidden peak in his AA years, but was a pretty similar player then to what he was in Philadelphia. I am therefore having a harder time seeing what makes him better than Bob Johnson.
21. Joe Tinker (20). % = 1.00. Looks like Ozzie Smith, but with only 3/4 of Ozzie’s career.
22. Herman Long (23). % = 1.0192. His case is of the same sort as Maranville’s, but he was not as brilliant a fielder and had a shorter career, so when Maranville drops to where Long was, Long drops to the all-time in-out line or thereabouts.
23. Bob Johnson (24). % = 1.00. Back on my radar
24. Dom Dimaggio (25). % = 1.00. Likewise
25. Jimmy Ryan (26). % = 1.00. Likewise
26. Dick Redding (27). % = 1.00. None of the additional, reliable data provided by Gary A. shows Redding to be pitching at a level that looks worthy of the HoM. None of the years reputed to be his best are part of this additional documentation, but the more data that shows him looking like a pitcher who was a bit above average in the NeL and, therefore, about average in the ML, the more his case is weakened, in my view. I’m not dropping him out of the picture altogether, but I’m putting him, for the moment at the bottom of the borderline-in group of players. It seems probable to me now that, unless the trend in evidence turns, he will drop further. It’s very hard for me right now, for instance, to accept that he was probably better than Burleigh Grimes.

------------- Below the Line by no more than 5% ----------------

27. Reggie Smith .9923
28. Bill Monroe .9922
29. Don Newcombe .9886
30. Urban Shocker .9867
31. Jim Kaat. .9846.
32. Burleigh Grimes .9845
33. George Burns .9879
34. Willie Davis .9896
35. Ken Singleton .9823
37. Johnny Evers .9779
38. Fielder Jones .9778
39. Lave Cross .9709
40. Hugh Duffy .9686
41. Johnny Pesky .9676
42. Ben Taylor .9667
43. Cy Seymour .9665
44. Dick Bartell .9653
45. George Van Haltren .9538
46. Larry Doyle .9614
47. Bobby Veach .9609
48. Buzz Arlett .9602
49. Vada Pinson .9599
50. Leroy Matlock .9544
51. Tommy Bond .9511

Returning top 10 not on my ballot:

Nellie Fox. See #21 above

Dobie Moore. % = .9293 He misses my ballot, and my top 50, because I don’t find his peak to be so outstanding that it counterbalances his lack of career.

Charley Jones. See #16 above.

Pete Browning. % = .8920. Yes, he was an outstanding hitter, but his eye-popping years were all in the weakest major leagues of all time (excepting the UA), he was not an asset on defense, he was not durable within seasons, and his career was short. He is not near my top 50 eligibles. My system sees him as having a case similar to Frank Howard and Rocky Colavito. They have arguments, but they are nevertheless clearly on the outside looking in.

Dick Redding. See #26 above.

New Arrivals worthy of note but outside Top 50 eligible:

Amos Otis. % = .9003 Very good centerfielder. A little bit better than Roy White, a little bit worse than Cesar Cedeno.
   94. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 09, 2006 at 06:23 AM (#2256144)

I find it funny that our discussion of season durability was started because of Fox, my argument would make one think that I rate Fox higher than you do and yet, you have Fox one spot ahead of me 18 to 19. Huh. Though I guess that Edd Roush may be the guy we are really fighting over, I have him about 24 slots below where you put him and you really like him.

Do you actually give holdout credit?
   95. rawagman Posted: December 09, 2006 at 08:01 AM (#2256158)
rico - you have no number '6'
   96. OCF Posted: December 09, 2006 at 08:59 AM (#2256166)
rico does have a #6: Fingers. He just missed the bold face on that line.
   97. OCF Posted: December 09, 2006 at 09:12 AM (#2256168)
1991 Ballot. Voting later than usual this week.

1. Rod Carew (new) He could hit.
2. Larry Doyle (3, 2, 2, 5, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.
3. Quincy Trouppe (4, 3, 3, 6, 5) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.
4. Jimmy Wynn (6, 5, 5, 8, 7) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.
5. George Van Haltren (7, 6, 6, 9, 8) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.
6. Tommy Bridges (9, 8, 8, 11, 10) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.
7. Bucky Walters (11, 10, 9, 12, 11) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.
8. Orlando Cepeda (5, 4, 4, 7, 6) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.
9. Norm Cash (8, 7, 7, 10, 9) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.
10. Frank Howard (12, 11, 10, 13, 12) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.
11. Ken Boyer (14, 13, 11, 14, 13) Compared to Elliott, less bat, more glove, tougher league.
12. Rusty Staub (new) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
13. Lou Brock (15, 14, 12, 15, 14) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.
14. Sal Bando (-, 15, 13, 16, 15) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.
15. Bob Elliott (16, 16, 14, 17, 16) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Luis Tiant (--, 15, 18, 17) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
17. Reggie Smith (--, 16, 19, 18) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
18. Jake Beckley (17, 17, 17, 20, 19) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
19. Ken Singleton (----, 20) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
20. Rollie Fingers (new) I'm still struggling with whether a relief pitcher can really amass enough value in so few innings. This is a very tentative placement and could go either direction.
21. Gene Tenace (---, 21, 22) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
22. Dick Redding (18, 18, 18, 22, 22)
23. Luis Aparicio (19, 19, 19, 23, 23) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
24. Bobby Bonds (-, 20, 20, 24, 24) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
25. Hugh Duffy (20, 21, 21, 25, 25) Nothing new to say after all these years.
26. Rabbit Maranville (21, 22, 22, 26, 26) Glove and career length.
27. Mickey Vernon (22, 23, 23, 27, 27) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
28. Nellie Fox (23, 24, 24, 28, 28) Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.
29. Phil Rizzuto (24, 25, 25, 29, 29) A glove-first SS candidate. Not a great offensive player, but at least useful on offense in an OBP-first shape, with good baserunning. But even with war credit, his career's not particularly long.
30. Edd Roush (26, 27, 27, 30, 30)

Moore is just outside my top 30, along with Stevens, E. Howard, and Johnson. I never did see the case for Jones and nothing's changed. I used to vote for Browning but he's been crowded off. If Keller then why not Chance? And I'm not voting for Chance.
   98. Chris Cobb Posted: December 09, 2006 at 02:03 PM (#2256209)
I find it funny that our discussion of season durability was started because of Fox, my argument would make one think that I rate Fox higher than you do and yet, you have Fox one spot ahead of me 18 to 19. Huh. Though I guess that Edd Roush may be the guy we are really fighting over, I have him about 24 slots below where you put him and you really like him.

Yes, I was amused by that, too. We're really arguing about a principle of analysis rather than about the particular ranking of a particular player, and our systems are different enough that sometimes we achieve similar results for different reasons. My argument _against_ Fox, in practical terms, is an argument for Bancroft over Fox. You have Bancroft down around 45, where he is on the top half of my ballot. You are correct that our disagreement over Edd Roush is also in play in this discussion.

Do you actually give holdout credit?

Yes, though in Roush's case I haven't formally calculated it: I simply don't drop Roush subjectively for playing in a slightly weaker league or for having a fairly long decline phase (the former of which I had been doing, the latter of which I have started to do with players with that profile, because I think a flaw in my system overrates them a little bit). My view is that not to give hold-out credit is to assume that ownership is always right in labor disputes, and that the player's responsibility is to be on the field, regardless of financial considerations, and I think that is an incorrect position. I take the view that labor stoppages of various kinds are an inherent part of a professional sport, but that, because of their erratic appearance, they affect some players disproportionately. So I make adjustments for strike-shortened seasons and for holdouts. I might call it "normalizing for contractual management." :-) Note that I don't give Allen credit in 1974 for the time he missed because he quit the team. Missed time due to player/management disputes I look at on a case by case basis.
   99. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 09, 2006 at 02:18 PM (#2256219)

I think the missing word is "give" or some conjugation of it. Sorry.


What if the pregnancy is an accident?
   100. . . . . . . Posted: December 09, 2006 at 03:07 PM (#2256231)
If Keller then why not Chance? And I'm not voting for Chance.

Hey, OCF, you said that last year. But it's not valid.

Keller's peak is similar, probably a tad better, than Chance's.
But the difference is that with war credit, Keller's peak/prime is longer than Chance's, by about 2 seasons. So your argument distills to, "no war credit for Keller". Which you should say explictly, if that's what you're doing.

3-year peak numbers below:


Keller: 10.5, 11.3, 11.6 = 33.4
Chance: 8.1, 9.5, 10.7 = 28.3
Looking at OPS+:

Keller: 162, 163, 168 (as a corner OF)
Chance: 150, 159, 158 (as a 1B)
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